MOZAMBIQUE
ECONOMIC
UPDATE
Making the most of
demographic change
December 2017
The World Bank’s biannual Mozambique Economic Update
(MEU) series is designed to present timely and concise
assessments of current economic trends in Mozambique in
light of the country’s broader development challenges. Each
edition includes a section on recent economic developments and
a discussion of Mozambique’s economic outlook, followed by a
focus section analyzing issues of particular importance. The focus
section in this edition addresses the search for a demographic
dividend in Mozambique. The MEU series seeks both to inform
discussions within the World Bank and to contribute to a robust
debate among government officials, the country’s international
development partners, and civil society regarding Mozambique’s
economic performance and key macroeconomic policy
challenges.
The cutoff date for the current edition of the MEU was November
30, 2017.
Contents
Abbreviations and Acronyms ....................................................................................................................................... iii
Acknowledgements .................................................................................................................................................... iv
Executive Summary .................................................................................................................................................... 1
Part One: Recent Economic Developments .............................................................................................................. 3
Economic Growth .................................................................................................................................................... 3
Exchange Rate and Inflation .................................................................................................................................. 8
The External Sector ................................................................................................................................................. 9
Monetary Policy ........................................................................................................................................................... 12
Fiscal Policy ................................................................................................................................................................... 14
Outlook ........................................................................................................................................................................... 19
Part Two: Searching for the Demographic Dividend ......................................................................................... 22
A Worrying Demographic Picture ........................................................................................................................ 22
A Three-Pillar Policy Framework to Harness the Demographic Dividend ................................................ 25
Estimating the Effects of Implementing Key Policies ..................................................................................... 28
References ..................................................................................................................................................................... 30
FIGURES
Figure 1: Growth is slowing in 2017 ....................................................................................................................... 5
Figure 2: … despite a sharp increase in coal exports .......................................................................................... 5
Figure 3: Industrial production trends have been unfavorable ....................................................................... 5
Figure 4: … and both credit and investment levels are at a low point ........................................................... 5
Figure 5: The share of employment has grown most in the services sector….................................................. 6
Figure 6: … where growth in labor productivity has been lowest .................................................................. 6
Figure 7: Worldwide, urbanization is associated with significant poverty reduction .................................. 8
Figure 8: In Mozambique, urban growth and consumption have not been associated with substantial
poverty reduction ..................................................................................................................................... 8
Figure 9: Population growth explains most of the increase in Mozambique’s urban population .......... 8
Figure 10: Prices in urban areas are higher than in rural areas, especially in Maputo .................................. 8
Figure 11: Food inflation has slowed since the start of the year….................................................................... 9
Figure 12: …together with a strengthening metical, this has resulted in reduced inflation levels ............ 9
Figure 13: Megaproject exports are supporting a narrowing current account balance….................................. 10
Figure 14: … and along with reduced imports, are contributing to improved reserve cover....................... 10
i
Figure 15: Megaproject FDI has fallen due to maturing projects and delays to implementation ............. 11
Figure 16: Although the REER has appreciated recently, it is now lower being back at 2011 levels ........ 11
Figure 17: Lending rates remain above peer countries….................................................................................... 13
Figure 18: … but may have room to ease given the drop in inflation................................................................ 13
Figure 19: Tight monetary policy has reduced the demand for credit............................................................. 13
Figure 20: …in almost all sectors of the economy........................................................................................................ 13
Figure 21: On-budget spending on health and education has remained constant................................................ 16
Figure 22: Investment in secondary education has increased significantly in recent years…............................... 16
Figure 23: …but spending has been inefficient compared to peers…....................................................................... 16
Figure 24: Fertility rates are high when compared to peer countries….................................................................... 17
Figure 25: …despite higher spending on reproductive and maternal health since 2012........................................ 17
Figure 26: Central bank advances have been increasingly financing the fiscal deficit........................................... 19
Figure 27: The Government wage bill remains sticky and above peer countries................................................. 19
Figure 28: Mozambique Lags Behind SSA Countries in the Demographic Transition.............................................. 23
Figure 29: Socio-Economic Inequality is Reflected by Unequal Fertility.................................................................. 23
Figure 30: Observed fertility is higher than desired for the lowest quintiles............................................................ 23
Figure 31: Conceptual Framework: The Demographic Dividends............................................................................ 24
Figure 32: The growth rate of formal jobs will be crucial to the rate of decline in informality............................ 27
Figure 33: Achieving the Low Fertility Scenario Means an Enormous Boost in GDP per Capita by 2050.................. 28
Figure 34: Only by Improving Education and Reducing Fertility that Mozambique Eradicates Extreme Poverty
by 2050................................................................................................................................................................. 28
TABLES
Table 1: The Balance of Payments .............................................................................................................................. 11
Table 2: Central Government Finances ..................................................................................................................... 18
Table 3: Outlook .................................................................................................................................................................. 21
BOXES
Box 1: Is Mozambique’s pattern of growth generating enough “good jobs”? ............................................. 6
Box 2: Why is urban growth providing few “good jobs” for rural workers? .................................................... 7
Box 3: Maintaining service delivery outcomes with fewer resources ............................................................ 15
Box 4: What is the Demographic Dividend and how does it impact Poverty Reduction?......................... 24
ii
Abbreviations
and Acronyms
BoP Balance of Payments
BdM Bank of Mozambique (Banco de Moçambique)
CAD Current-Account Deficit
CPI Consumer Price Index
DHS Demographic Household Survey
EDM Mozambique Electricity (Electricidade de Moçambique)
EMATUM Mozambican Tuna Company (Empresa Moçambicana de Atum)
FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
FDI Foreign Direct Investment
FPC Standing Lending Facility (Facilidade Permanente de Cedência)
FPD Standing Deposit Facility (Facilidade Permanente de Depósito)
GDP Gross Domestic Product
GFSM Government Finance Statistics Manual
HCB Cahora Bassa Hydroelectric (Hidroeléctrica de Cahora Bassa)
IGEPE State-owned Equity Holdings Management Institute (Instituto de Gestão das
Participações do Estado)
INE National Statistics Institute (Instituto Nacional de Estatística)
IMF International Monetary Fund
IPI Industrial Production Index
LIC Low Income Countries
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
MAM Mozambique Asset Management
MASA Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security (Ministério da Agricultura e Segurança
Alimentar)
MEF Ministry of Economy and Finance (Ministério da Economia e Finanças)
MBTU Million British Thermal Units
Mt Metric tons
MZN New Mozambican Metical
NPLs Non Performing Loans
OECD Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development
PER Public Expenditure Review
PPI Producer Price Index
PPP Public-Private Partnership
PROSAUDE Common Fund Mechanism for Health Financing (Programa de Saúde)
REER Real Effective Exchange Rate
SADC Southern Africa Development Community
SIMA Agricultural Market Information System (Sistema de Informação de Mercados Agrícolas)
SSA Sub-Saharan Africa
SOE State Owned Enterprise
TFR Total Fertility Rate
UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization
UNFPA United Nations Population Fund
VAT Value Added Tax
WDI World Development Indicators
WEO World Economic Outlook
WB World Bank
iii
Acknowledgements
This edition of the Mozambique Economic Update was prepared
by a team led by Shireen Mahdi (Senior Economist, GMF13).
The team included Sara Troiano (Young Professional, GTI11) and
Peter Holland (Program Leader, AFCS2) - lead authors for part
two, Anna Carlotta Allen Massingue (Research Analyst, GMF13),
Fernanda Ailina Pedro Massarongo Chivulele (Research Analyst,
GMF13), Adelina Mucavele (Program Assistant, AFCS2), Ian Walker
(Lead Economist, GPSJB), Andre Herzog (Senior Urban Specialist,
GSU13), Julian Casal (Senior Financial Sector Economist, GMF01),
Jorge Faria (Financial Sector Analyst, GMF01), Humberto Albino
Cossa (Senior Health Specialist, GNH01) and Miguel Angel San
Joaquin Polo (Senior Health Economist, GNH01). Peer reviewers
were Fausio Mussa (Chief Economist, Standard Bank Mozambique),
Ulrich Bartsch (Lead Economist, GMF01), and Fulbert Tchana
Tchana (Senior Economist, GMF05). The report was prepared
under the overall guidance and supervision of Mark R. Lundell
(Country Director, AFCS2), Mathew Verghis (Practice Manager,
GMF13) and Carolin Geginat (Program Leader, AFCS2).
iv
executive summary
Executive
Summary
Mozambique is shifting
to a period of reduced GDP growth expectations pre and post
growth and increasing hidden debts
concentration. (Annual % change)
10%
Developments in the second half of this year
indicate that the slowdown in Mozambique’s 8%
economic performance may be taking hold
and shifting this once fast-growing economy 6%
to a more modest pace of growth, barely above
that of the population. After registering 7 percent 4%
GDP growth on average between 2011 and
2%
2015, growth is expected to dip to 3.1 percent
in 2017. This reduction in growth is expected 0%
despite the substantial increases in coal and 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
aluminum exports seen in 2017, Mozambique’s
prime tradables. Whilst these exports boomed
over the past year, small and medium enterprises
have fallen back even further, especially in the force each year over the next decade. Hence,
manufacturing sector, which contracted for the trends observed in 2017 make it clear that
this first time since 1994. Their growth, and Mozambique needs to redouble its efforts to
capacity to generate jobs, has been restricted support small and medium enterprises, and
by the economic downturn in the post-hidden to look beyond the extractive sector for more
debt period through reduced demand from balanced growth.
both private consumers and the public sector,
reduced investment, and the high cost of credit. The appreciation of the metical helped to lower
Small and medium enterprises are crowded out, external debt from 103 percent of GDP at end
and not even the sizable growth in commodity 2016 to an estimated 83 percent by end 2017.
exports is sufficient to counteract the effects this This continues to be an unsustainably high
is having on growth. level of debt with a high burden in terms of
debts service. Moreover, Mozambique’s public
The level of concentration in the economy also finances have continued to worsen under the
increased in 2017. A few commodities dominate ongoing downturn. The budget continued to
exports and represent a larger share of foreign adjust by reducing public investment in favor of
currency inflows, which heightens exposure to a still growing wage bill and higher debt service
external shocks. The increased concentration costs. These spending pressures, along with
of output in the extractive and minerals sector increasing fiscal risks from weakened state-
keeps Mozambique on the path of a two-speed owned enterprises, have limited progress towards
economy that is less capable today of generating fiscal adjustment in 2017 and contributed to the
sufficient jobs to absorb a net inflow of almost rapid increase in domestic borrowing, adding
500,000 people annually that will enter the labor further to the debt burden. Without progress in
1
mozambique economic update december 2017
the debt restructuring process launched by the state-owned enterprises. In addition, increased
government in October 2016 and measures to transparency and accountability in the handling
control spending, including the adoption of a of the hidden debts investigation would support
target for a primary surplus in the medium-term, this reform package, and help to restore investor
it will be unlikely that Mozambique will be able and donor confidence.
to restore fiscal sustainability.
Making the most of
A stronger fiscal policy demographic change.
response and increased
transparency are key for In order to examine the expected future
demands on Mozambique’s growth path, the
recovery. special focus section in this economic update
discusses the challenge of transforming
There is no doubt that the scale of the shocks
Mozambique’s growing and youthful population
faced by Mozambique’s economy over the past
into a demographic dividend for future growth.
two years has been immense, including the El-
This is an ever more urgent agenda given the
Nino drought and falling commodity prices in
drift towards a natural resource extraction based
early 2016, and the hidden debts crisis which
economy with low employment generation.
amplified an already ongoing slowdown. Since
Mozambique lags behind other sub-Saharan
then, commodity prices and conditions for
African countries in kicking off a demographic
agriculture have more been favorable. There has
transition. With children aged 0-14 representing
also been notable progress achieved towards
more than 45 percent of the population in
the development of the Rovuma basin gas
2015, the country has an extremely young age
reserves as the Coral South project reached the
structure. From about 2000-2010, there was no
final investment decision. As the external factors
progress toward a demographic transformation;
become less of an impediment, the economy
in fact, high fertility levels appeared to have
turns to the policy response in pursuing a
increased further. By 2011, the total fertility rate
recovery. Decisive monetary policy measures
was estimated at 5.9 children per woman on
and the strong commodity export performance
average, one of the highest rates in the world.
helped to stabilize the Metical and bring inflation
Perhaps more importantly, in Mozambique,
down to 7 percent from a peak of 26 percent a
although the desired number of children among
year earlier. Fiscal policy also began responding,
women is high, the observed fertility is even
but at a slower pace. Progress has been made in
higher, especially amongst the poor.
reforming subsidies and strengthening revenues,
but more needs to be done to restore the health
This challenge is immense, but so is the
of Mozambique’s public finances and set a path
opportunity: World Bank analysis estimates that
to debt sustainability in the medium term.
reducing fertility levels, investing in skills, and
productive jobs would represent an enormous
Stabilizing the outlook through more definitive
boost to prosperity. Helping fertility levels to
fiscal policy measures and the resolution of the
drop faster is estimated to increase real GDP per
debt restructuring negotiations are urgent priorities
capita by 31 percent by 2050. To achieve this,
that would help to balance the macroeconomic
and transform the demographic challenge into
policy mix. Monetary policy has been active and
an economic opportunity, Mozambique must
has contributed to a stabilizing currency at a
actively promote policies to trigger the fertility
critical time. The space is now opening for the
transition through job opportunities for women
monetary policy cycle to begin easing as inflation
and better family planning services to delay the
continues to fall, which would improve the private
onset of early marriage. It also calls for a sharper
sector’s access to credit. But this requires a tighter
focus on building skills for youth and an economy
fiscal policy response and more sustainable levels
that grows whilst generating productive jobs for
of debt. It would also require a more proactive
the next generation of Mozambicans.
approach to tackling fiscal risks from weak
2
part one: recent economic developments
Part One:
Recent Economic
Developments
Economic Growth a slump, having been affected by low water
reservoir levels.² Lastly, core manufacturing
Slower growth as the private sector is industries, including food processing, are
crowded out and generating fewer jobs. struggling to maintain their levels of output
considering the high cost of credit, slow demand
Mozambique is shifting to a reduced growth and low competitiveness vis-a-vis imports as the
trajectory. As opposed to 2017 being the year real exchange rate appreciated.
when Mozambique begins to slowly recover
from a debt driven economic downturn, Without the ramp up in coal exports, the
output growth has slackened even further, slowdown in growth would have been more
shifting Mozambique further away from its pronounced. A 40 percent growth rate in
track record of high growth. Gross domestic extractives has been the most pronounced trend
product (GDP) growth is expected to slow to of the year, largely driven by higher coal exports.
3.1 percent in 2017, down from 3.8 percent in As a result, extractives are expected to account for
2016. This continued slowing signals the depth 2.3 percent of the 3.1 percent growth expected
of the ongoing downturn, and the continued in 2017. Services, the largest sector in the
transmission of the debt crisis to the real sectors economy, was the second largest contributor to
of the economy. growth. Demand for transport services increased
compared to 2016, spurred by increased security
Manufacturing, which represents 13 percent of in the center of the country and demand for both
GDP, contracted for the first time since 1994. rail and port logistics as coal exports boomed.
The contraction was felt in all three sub-sectors: Currency stability and easing inflation reduced
manufacturing, energy and construction. Once pressures on purchasing power, but this has not
a key catalyst in the economy, with annual been enough to restore consumer demand for
growth averaging at 8 percent since the start of services, whilst public sector activity remains
the decade, the construction sector has faltered diminished. Agriculture also contributed to growth
as public and private investment declined.¹ given increased output of both grain and export
Hydropower generation has also experienced crops3 with maize production, Mozambique’s
1 According to the Economic Climate Confidence Index, almost 50 percent of firms in the sector reported facing limited activity
in August 2017, and 39 percent cited low demand as a significant obstacle to activity.
2 Reservoir levels were severely affected by the drought experienced in 2016. Despite normal precipitation levels during
the last rainy season, which ended in March 2017, HCB’s data on reservoir levels shows that quota has not exceeded 319.8
meters – putting it 6.2m below the minimum requirement level for storage. [see http://www.jornalnoticias.co.mz/index.php/
provincia-em-foco/67166-tete-hidroelectrica-de-cahora-bassa-mudancas-climaticas-limitam-producao-energetica.html for
further coverage on this issue.]
3 Grains include maize, sorghum and rice, whilst export crops refer to tobacco and cashew nuts.
3
mozambique economic update december 2017
main agricultural product, expected to increase has not restored the much-needed
by 11 percent compared to 2016.4 confidence for economic recovery.
Mozambique’s economy is facing the The fallout from revelation of USD 1.4 billion
symptoms of an economy in debt overhang in previously undisclosed borrowing has
whereby today’s high debt levels are crowding had severe consequences on Mozambique’s
out the firms outside the extractives sector and economy, extending well beyond the nominal
impeding tomorrow's growth. A debt overhang burden of the additional debts. The debt
occurs when debt levels are sufficiently high caused a loss in confidence by investors and
to deter investment in activities that would donors, and has been a major contributor to
have contributed to future growth. Under this the significant drop in national output over the
framework, firms expect that the increases in past 18 months. It also signaled weaknesses in
output that come with investment would be the institutional frameworks for debt and public
consumed by debt service costs or high taxation investment management. The Mozambican
when debt levels are high, deterring investments authorities commissioned an independent
from taking place at all.5 This echoes the external audit of the hidden debts in November
situation facing manufacturing enterprises and 2016, with support from development partners,
other firms in the formal sector today, which are as key a measure for restoring confidence and
experiencing a spike in the cost of credit and responding to the public’s calls for accountability
reduced investment levels. Hence, it is apparent and transparency in the handling of the issue.
that much of Mozambique’s private sector is
being crowded-out as firms struggle to obtain Whilst the audit created an opportunity for
affordable financing at the same time as the Mozambique to restore confidence and
public sector’s domestic financing needs have support economic recovery through increased
grown, and as both private and public demand transparency and accountability, it fell short of
settle into a new low. this goal due to important information gaps in
the report. Upon its completion in May 2017,
The recent trends also keep Mozambique a key finding of the report was that the three
on the track of a two-speed economy6 companies (EMATUM, Proindicus and MAM)
with limited growth in productive jobs, in a were never fully operational and did not generate
demographic context of an increasingly young any significant revenues. The audit report also
and under-employed population. With current found that the loan proceeds were never paid
growth patterns being driven by capital intensive directly to the companies, but were instead paid
megaprojects in the extractives industry, straight into various accounts owned by the
Mozambique’s economy today is generating main contractors to the companies. Incomplete
fewer productive jobs for an ever-larger information was provided to the investigation by
population of rural and urban jobseekers. Instead various actors involved, resulting in outstanding
of capitalizing on its demographic prospects, the questions as to the use of the loan proceeds,
economy is likely to forgo potential demographic amongst others. As a result, investor and donor
dividends if job creation in important sectors sentiment continue to be low, and Mozambique
such as manufacturing is stalled (see part two has not been able to agree on a program with
of this edition for a discussion of demographics the International Monetary Fund. The inadequate
and growth in Mozambique). outcome of the audit has been a holdup to debt
restructuring negotiations with creditors and
The international audit on Mozambique’s economic recovery, contributing to the sequence
previously undisclosed borrowing of events that are now placing Mozambique on
a lower growth path.
4 FAO – Global Information and Early Warning Systems (GIEWS) Country Brief for Mozambique, June 2017.
5 Myers (1977); Krugman (1998); Sachs (1984, 1986).
6 The July 2017 edition of the Mozambique Economic Update highlighted the two-speeds at which economic growth is taking
place, with an acceleration in output and productivity in extractives, and slower growth in the rest of the economy.
4
part one: recent economic developments
Figure 1: Growth is slowing in 2017… Figure 2: … despite a sharp increase in coal exports.
Sectoral contribution growth, 2014 – 17 Exports, 2011 - 2017 (USD millions)
Source: INE Source: BdM
Figure 3: Industrial production trends have Figure 4: … and both credit and investment
been unfavorable… levels are at a low point.
Industrial production index, 2017 Investment and credit trends, 2011 – 17
(12 month % change) (annual % change)
Source: INE Source: BdM
5
mozambique economic update december 2017
Box 1: Is Mozambique’s pattern of growth generating enough “good jobs”?
Mozambique is in the early stages of its Report, Mozambique’s jobs transition
demographic transition, which raises the has been lagging the country’s output
question as to whether its economy can expansion. This means that megaprojects
generate enough new jobs to employ and extractive industries that contributed
the increase in the number of workers. most to Mozambique’s rapid economic
Almost 500,000 people (net) will enter growth in recent decades have not
the labor force each year over the next expanded their employment proportionally.
decade – almost twice as many as over Instead, most labor force entrants have been
the last decade. From a macroeconomic accommodated in the sectors or job types
perspective, Mozambique’s impressive that exhibit the lowest productivity levels
growth performance over the last 18 years (i.e., agriculture and non-farm informal
(averaging over 7 percent per annum) services jobs), while relatively few labor
indicates that the economy has grown fast force entrants have gained access to jobs
enough to generate a significant number in industry or to wage-based service jobs
of jobs. The more pertinent question, with higher labor productivity. The ongoing
however, is whether the economy is capable economic downturn is likely to deepen this
of generating enough “good” jobs that can trend as weak demand and the high cost
raise the jobholders’ prospects of escaping of credit contribute to the contraction of
poverty in the foreseeable future. the manufacturing sector. These recent
trends are bound to create frustration and
Mozambique’s structural evolution over disappointment among youth, and slow
the last two decades and recent growth Mozambique’s ability to generate more and
trends raise concerns. As noted in the increasingly productive jobs.
forthcoming World Bank Jobs Diagnostic
Figure 5: The share of employment has Figure 6: … where growth in labor
grown most in the services sector… productivity has been lowest.
Percentage change in sectoral employment share Average labor productivity between 1996 and 2014
between 1996 and 2014 (Constant 2010 USD)
Source: World Bank Jobs Diagnostic Report. December 2017.
6
part one: recent economic developments
Box 2: Why is urban growth providing few “good jobs” for rural workers?
Urbanization, if managed well, can Interprovincial rural–urban migration is
accelerate economic growth and currently low in Mozambique, reaching
job creation. Faster urbanization and just 0.4 percent, compared to around 1.5
“agglomeration economies” can provide to 2 percent a year on average for both
a catalyst for broad-based economic developed and developing countries
development by reducing transport costs, during their transition to an intermediate
developing markets for specialized services, stage of urbanization.
and labor market matching. The World Bank’s
Mozambique Urbanization Review (2017) The high cost of living in cities and the
shows that urban centers hold significant concentration of job growth in low value
promises: Even though Mozambique’s cities added areas has stymied the urbanization
are a home to only 22 percent of the total process. Compared with rural areas, nominal
population, they generate 51 percent of wages are 26 percent higher in urban areas
the national GDP, and average per capita and 24 percent higher in Greater Maputo.
consumption in cities is at more than triple But, when wages are deflated to adjust
the rural average. In the next 25 years, the for spatial differences in the cost of living,
urban population is expected to more than the urban wage premium disappears. One
double, adding more than 11 million people reason why the urban wage premium is low
to cities. is that jobs in urban areas are predominantly
growing in sectors with low value-added. In
However, past urban growth has not Greater Maputo, more than two-thirds of
yielded its full benefits and has not been a the jobs are in non-tradable sectors such as
significant source of jobs for rural workers. informal services, and in other urban areas,
Around one third of the urban population non-tradables account for 46 percent of jobs.
is poor and inequality levels have been
on the rise. Moreover, most municipalities Limited connectivity and weak land markets
have not been able to cope with the pace are impeding urbanization. Although the
of urban growth, and have been unable to Government of Mozambique has invested
make progress in closing the significant considerably in national roads recently, and
infrastructure and services deficit. About 70 the private sector has also contributed to
percent of urban dwellers live in informal extending the railway and port infrastructure,
areas with only a basic level of infrastructure, the connection between cities and rural
in houses built with nondurable material, spaces continues to be suboptimal. The
and without land use rights titles. urban transport system in Mozambique is
also limited. Another key factor is land policy,
The limited economic benefits from which is not conducive to a well-functioning
urbanization might explain why rural- urban land market. Land tenure management
urban migration is much lower when mechanisms are complex, opaque, and
compared with similar countries. Natural inefficient and municipal governments have
population growth accounts for the large very limited institutional capacity. This has
majority of the current increase in the implications, given that a dysfunctional land
urban population. Migration from rural to market prevents cities from making early
urban areas explains just 12 percent of the and coordinated infrastructure investments
urban population growth in Mozambique. in housing and basic urban infrastructure.
7
mozambique economic update december 2017
Figure 7: Worldwide, urbanization is Figure 8: In Mozambique, urban growth
associated with significant poverty and consumption have not been associated
reduction. with substantial poverty reduction.
Poverty headcount and urbanization Output per km2
(various countries) (USD millions)
All countries
Mozambique
Mozambique
Millions
US$ per km
High: 59
Low:0
Figure 9: Population growth explains most Figure 10: Prices in urban areas are higher
of the increase in Mozambique’s urban than in rural areas, especially in Maputo.
population.
Annual urban population growth (%) Rural /urban price differential by province (%)
Europe Asia Africa Mozambique
(1800-1910) (1960-2010) (1960-2010) (1997-2007)
Migration Natural growth rate
Source: Mozambique Urbanization Review: Accelerating Urbanization to Support Structural Transformation in Mozambique.
June 2017.
Exchange Rate and Inflation
A stable currency has contributed to more June 2017. Given Mozambique’s dependence
manageable levels of inflation. on imports for numerous consumer products,
this has contributed to a downward trend in
Inflation has eased to 7 percent, supported inflation: by November 2017, headline inflation
by a more stable metical and falling food stood at 7 percent, down from 26 percent 12
prices. Having appreciated approximately months earlier. The expansion in agricultural
16 percent against the US dollar in 2017, the output post el-Niño has also been essential to
metical has remained relatively stable, trading this trend. Food inflation dropped to 5 percent
at an average MZN 61 to the US dollar since in November 2017, having peaked at 41 percent
8
part one: recent economic developments
in September 2016. The stabilization of the narrowed to 27 percent in June 2017, from 63
metical also helped ease industrial production percent at the end of 2016.
costs as 12-month producer price inflation
Figure 11: Food inflation has slowed since the Figure 12: …together with a strengthening
start of the year… metical, this has resulted in reduced
inflation levels.
Food and non-food contributions to inflation, Regional CPI inflation rate (12-month % change) and
2016 - 17 Nominal exchange rate (MZN / USD), 2016 - 17
Other non-food Food Inflation - Maputo Inflation - Beira
Electricity, gas, other fuels Transport Inflation - Nampula MZN/USD (RHS)
Source: INE Source: BdM; INE
The External Sector
A substantial external adjustment took significantly since mid-2015 (figure 16).
place in 2017 as the current account deficit The foreign currency influx from the boom
shrinks further to 12 percent of GDP. in coal exports supported the appreciation,
and demonstrates the extent to which
The strong growth in exports seen in 2017 is Mozambique’s REER is influenced by large
a large contributor to the narrowing current swings in commodity trade, given the extent
account deficit in 2017. The current account of export concentration. Currently, the REER is
deficit is expected to narrow markedly to 12 close to 2011 levels, setting a more competitive
percent of GDP in 2017, from an average of 37 stage for the economy. However, structural
percent between 2011 and 2016, reflecting a constraints and the cost of credit may inhibit
shrinking trade deficit for goods. Exports are the supply response, especially amongst non-
estimated to increase by 42 percent in 2017 megaproject exporters.
due to a surge in megaproject exports. Coal
and aluminum alone, which represent roughly Import levels remain subdued. After having
half of total exports, are expected to grow by dropped by 25 percent in 2016, imports of
133 and 40 percent, respectively in 2017. The goods and services have remained low, and
remainder of the export portfolio is expected to are expected to fall a further 11 percent in 2017.
show weaker performance in 2017, especially in Consumer demand for basic goods such as
agriculture related sectors. rice and wheat flour also increased slowly but
demand for most other consumer imports has
Mozambique’s real effective exchange remained low despite gains in the metical, given
rate (REER) appreciated in the 12 months the weakened purchasing power of Mozambican
to October 2017, after having depreciated households and the high cost of credit. The
9
mozambique economic update december 2017
slowdown in megaproject service imports Recovery of central bank reserves have
has also contributed to narrowing the current been increasing but downside risks need to
account balance,7 reflecting the slowdown in be considered. Gross international reserves
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). registered at USD 2.5 billion by end-October
2017, up from USD 1.8 billion a year earlier. This
A combination of maturing investments8 and represents an increase in import cover to 4.9
delays to new projects has caused FDI to hit a months, or 6.1 months excluding megaprojects,
9-year low. FDI to Mozambique has been falling based on current import levels. If estimated
since 2013. This trend has continued into 2017 based on pre-downturn import levels and
with net FDI expected to drop by 44 percent assuming the external debt service was paid
over the course of the year. A combination of in full, reserve coverage would be lower at 1.9
maturing investments and delays to new projects months of imports, or 2.7 months of imports
has kept megaproject investment well below the excluding megaprojects. Capital gains tax would
average of the past five years. Investment has also boost reserves but rising prices for key consumer
dropped in non-megaproject sectors, hospitality commodities such as fuel and grains continue
and construction, as lower confidence and high- to pose a drag. For instance, spending on fuel
risk perceptions affect investor sentiment. imports in the first nine months of the year has
increased by approximately 40 percent when
International reserves have been compared to the same period in 2016.
recovering but are exposed to risks.
Figure 13: Megaproject exports are supporting Figure 14: … and along with reduced
a narrowing current account balance… imports, are contributing to improved
reserve cover.
Mega and non-megaproject CAB (USD millions) and Quarterly import levels (USD millions) and months of
change in reserves (year on year), 2013 - 17 import cover, 2015 - 17
Source: BdM Source: BdM
7 By the end of September 2017, technical and consulting services were almost 40 percent lower than a year earlier.
8 Most ongoing investments are at a stage of their life cycle which is less demanding of capital injection, with some of the
projects already in production/operation phase. Net megaproject FDI dropped to a low USD 184 million in the first nine months
of the year, having averaged USD 2.7 billion between 2011 and 2016.
10
part one: recent economic developments
Figure 15: Megaproject FDI has fallen Figure 16: Although the REER has appreciated
due to maturing projects and delays to recently, it is now lower being back at 2011
implementation. levels.
Net FDI, annual (USD millions), 2011 - 17 Real effective exchange rate and export indices,
2010 – 17 (2010 = 100)
7,000
Megaproject FDI
6,000
Non-megaproject FDI
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017f
Source: BdM Source: World Bank estimates based on BdM and INE data
Table 1: The Balance of Payments
(USD millions, 2016 2017
unless otherwise stated) Actual Estimate 16/17
Current Account (% of GDP) 36.1 11.8 …
Current Account -3,979 -1,451 -64%
Trade Balance -4,195 -1,881 -56%
Goods, net -1,405 -148 -89%
Exports 3,328 4,739 42%
megaproject 2,405 3,676 53%
non-megaproject 924 1,063 15%
Imports 4,733 4,887 3%
megaproject 771 899 17%
non-megaproject 3,962 3,988 1%
Services, net -2,847 -1,733 -39%
Income and transfers, net 272 430 58%
Capital & Financial Account -3,485 -2,376 -32%
of which
FDI, net -3,093 -1,743 -44%
megaproject -1,322 -303 -77%
non-megaproject -1,771 -1,440 -19%
Other, net -198 -477 141%
Overall Balance -501 925 …
megaproject -37.2 758 …
non-megaproject -400.9 167 …
Source: BdM, World Bank staff estimates
11
mozambique economic update december 2017
Monetary Policy
Monetary policy remains cautionary that together control more than two-thirds of
despite easing inflation. total assets. Financial intermediation increased
rapidly up to 2016, but is still below the average
Although monetary policy is beginning to ease as for sub-Saharan Africa. Credit and deposit
inflation retreats, interest rates remain high given concentration exceed asset concentration,
persisting uncertainties in the macroeconomic which suggests that business opportunities in
outlook. Monetary policy tightening in 2016 played both the lending and deposit sides are limited
a key role in supporting the adjustment in the outside of the largest banks.
external economy and contributed to stabilizing
the metical this year. As inflation began to retreat, Capital buffers have increased on the basis
the Banco de Moçambique signaled that monetary of recent regulatory measures to shore up
policy tightening cycle had peaked by lowering the the financial system. This includes the April
reference lending rate9 three times in 2017, but at 2017 decision to increase the minimum capital
a cautiously slow rate given concerns regarding requirement from USD 1.2 million to USD 27
the pace of fiscal adjustment and uncertainties million and plans to increase the solvency ratio
as to the macroeconomic outlook.10 Hence, from 8 to 12 percent. System-wide solvency has
the reference lending rate has remained high increased since December 2016 and is above the
throughout the year and stood at 22 percent in regulatory and Basel II minimum requirement of
November 2017, and at 28.2 percent by late 201711 8 percent. This reflects capital increases by some
average commercial bank lending rates have banks in response to regulatory requirements,
reduced the private sector’s demand for credit. as well as resolution measures applied to two
weak banks.
Credit contracted by an average 13 percent
in real terms in the 12 months to October Asset quality has deteriorated amid application
2017. Mozambique experienced several years of tighter supervisory oversight. System-wide
of expansionary monetary policy over the non-performing loans (NPLs) have increased
past decade, leading to significant rates of since December 2016 as the banking sector,
credit growth: annual credit growth to the like the rest of the economy, has navigated a
private sector averaged 20 percent in real weakened economic setting and heightened
terms between January 2013 and March 2016. risks associated with both public and private
Heightened debt levels, the cost of credit, and lending portfolios. Having registered a level of
reduced demand reversed this trend. Credit 5.2 percent in January 2017, NPLs represented
contracted for the fifteenth consecutive month over 10 percent of total credit by June 201712
in October 2017 with a sharp reduction in the and continue an upward trend. This rise is the
construction, manufacturing commerce, and result of tighter application of loan classification
consumer credit sectors. and provisioning guidelines as well as the
consequence of higher interest rates due to
The banking sector’s performance and tighter monetary policy. Provisions to NPLs have
vulnerability to risks remain a concern. fallen since December 2016. Asset impairment
suggests that banks may require additional
The financial sector in Mozambique is relatively provisions, which could undermine profitability.
shallow, bank-dominated, and predominantly
foreign-owned. Commercial banks account Liquidity risks remain elevated. Commercial
for the bulk of financial sector assets, which are banks and other financial institutions have
concentrated with the three largest institutions limited clarity on the extent of the exposure of
9 Facilidade permanente de cedência (FPC).
10 See Banco de Moçambique’s Monetary Policy Committee Comunique: Comunicado nº5/2017 de 26 de Outubro 2017.
11 Average interest rate for loans with 1-year maturity registered in September, with a maximum of 36.8 percent and minimum of
23.3 percent. Interest rate spreads – the difference between lending and deposit rates – are high (above 10 percent) and attributed
mostly to elevated operating costs, lack of credit information, and limited collateral.
12 IMF Regional Economic Outlook, November 2017
12
part one: recent economic developments
their counterparts to the economic downturn liquidity ratio (the share of short term liabilities
and to sovereign and SOE debt. The central invested in liquid assets) has increased as has
bank’s decision to increase reserve and liquidity the share of system-wide liquid assets to total
requirements and to limit access to its overnight assets. The system-wide loan-to-deposit ratio
window to two days a week has obliged banks has declined since December 2016 as credit to
to increase the share of liquid assets and tighten the construction, manufacturing and commerce
credit provision. As a result, the system-wide sectors contracted sharply.
Figure 17: Lending rates remain above peer Figure 18: … but may have room to ease given
countries… the drop in inflation.
Lending rates for select countries, Central and Commercial Bank interest rates and CPI,
2015 - 17 (%) 2014 - 17 (%, unless otherwise stated)
30% 35%
30%
25%
25%
20% 20%
15% 15%
10%
10%
5%
5% 0%
Source: IMF Source: BdM; INE
Figure 19: Tight monetary policy has reduced Figure 20: …in almost all sectors of the economy.
the demand for credit…
Real credit growth, 2014 - 17 Sectoral real credit growth, October 2017
(12 month % change) (12 month % change)
Source: BdM Source: BdM
13
mozambique economic update december 2017
Fiscal Policy
The fiscal adjustment continues to be net lending) is expected to have dropped
hampered by growing salary and interest slightly from 32 to 31 percent of GDP, pushing
costs, and increased domestic financing. the overall fiscal deficit to 7.5 percent of GDP,
excluding capital gains tax.
Mozambique’s fiscal space has shrunk in tandem
with its swollen debt burden. Mozambique’s An increase in domestic borrowing signals the
public finances have continued to worsen difficulties in controlling public finances. The
under the ongoing downturn. The budget has stock of domestic debt is estimated at MZN 100.5
been facing large shocks since 2015, including billion by the end of September 2017, 15 percent
a 5 percent of GDP reduction in donor grants higher than at the beginning of the year and 45
and project lending,13 a significant increase in percent up on end 2015. The cost of domestic
public debt, and a jump in the cost of domestic borrowing has also increased substantially. The
financing from approximately 10 percent to 26 average interest rates for treasury bills and bonds
percent.14 At the same time, wage bill control stood at 25 percent and 28 percent respectively
mechanisms have been insufficient and fiscal in October 2017, and market risk perception
risks from weakened state-owned enterprises of government paper is high. As a result, the
have been increasing. As a result, Mozambique’s Government could only place an average of 61
fiscal space15 has been shrinking. Proxied as the percent of its treasury bond issuances during the
number of tax years needed to pay off the entire year.19 Because of this, and due to the budget’s
debt burden, fiscal space in Mozambique has large financing needs and limited access in
narrowed considerably from an average 2.1 years external financing, the share of domestic debt in
in the period 2010 – 2013 to 4.3 years in 2016.16 the overall debt stock has increased. In addition,
Having averaged at 2.9 percent of GDP between central bank financing now represents close to
2010 and 2013 the primary deficit increased to half of total domestic debt by October 2017.
4.4 percent of GDP in 2016.
Spending on investment, social and
The 2017 budget has shown limited progress economic sectors: no longer a growing
towards fiscal adjustment. Revenues fell from budget environment.
24 percent of GDP in 2016 to an estimated
23 percent in 2017, excluding capital gains The budget continued to adjust by reducing
tax equivalent to 2.8 percent of GDP.17 At the public investment in favor of a still growing
same time, spending pressures amounted, wage bill, a pattern that is not good for
making it difficult to consolidate total spending. growth in the medium term. Investment has
Mozambique’s fiscal accounts are presented continued to be the main spending item under
on a cash basis, and therefore do not report consolidation in 2017. Both the domestic and
expenditure arrears, which limits fiscal external investment budgets declined, and are
transparency and the ability to clearly assess the expected to drop by 46 percent and 29 percent
state of public finances.18 When estimated on a respectively since 2015, as capital spending
commitment basis, total expenditure (including bore the brunt of the fiscal adjustment over
13 On budget donor grants and project lending is estimated to have narrowed to 3.8 percent of GDP in 2017, down from 9
percent of GDP in 2015.
14 Average rate for treasury bills and bonds at the start of 2016 compared to October 2017.
15 Defined as, “room in the government’s budget that allows it to provide resources for a desired purpose without jeopardizing
the sustainability of its financial position or the stability of the economy”. Heller, 2005.
16 Methodology applied is based on Klose et al (2017), published in the World Bank Africa Pulse, October 2017.
17 This indicates the challenges under the current economic context, as a significant number of entities are no longer contributing
to the state’s coffers due to the difficult business environment, and a drop in domestic demand affects the broader private sector.
Over 1,500 companies have ceased their activities, and a further 220 have suspended payment of corporation tax according to
the Revenue Authority (http://clubofmozambique.com/news/tax-collection-on-target-mozambique/).
18 Interest payment arrears to private creditors and amounts outstanding to fuel suppliers are estimated at MZN 14 billion to
date (1.8 percent of GDP). In addition, the private sector reported MZN 30 billion in supplier arrears since 2014 (3.8 percent
of GDP) – see http://clubofmozambique.com/news/state-still-owes-private-sector-companies-29-billion-meticais-cta/.
19 Five treasury bond auctions have been held in 2017, with the following demand: February 65%; April 51%; May 42%; October
67%; November 82%.
14
part one: recent economic developments
the past two years. Given Mozambique’s large several of its peers in the region (Figure 27).
infrastructure gap, a continuation of this trend
represents an important risk to the country’s Efforts are being made to protect spending
medium-term growth strategy. At the same on social and economic sectors, but more
time, spending on the wage bill has continued needs to be done to increase the efficiency
to grow. The central government wage bill has of spending.21 Recurrent spending on social
grown rapidly since the start of the decade, from and economic sectors is estimated to have
8 percent of GDP in 2010 to 11.3 percent in 2016. increased by 12 percent in 2017. Here again,
A combination of increasing compensation and an increase in recurrent spending was offset
recruitment, including growth in the number of by reductions in the investment budget. The
frontline service delivery personnel, generated social and economic sectors fared better than
momentum that has proven difficult to arrest the rest in terms of investment budget cuts,
despite budget constraints. By end 2017, the indicating that efforts are being made to protect
government wage bill is expected to exceed resources for these priorities.22 However, given
its budgeted allocation for the year by at least the current budget context, there is an urgent
10 percent and is estimated to edge up to need for increased expenditure efficiency if
11.4 percent of GDP.20 This is a slower pace of service delivery outcomes are to improve in the
growth than in past years, but Mozambique’s coming years (Box 3).
government wage bill remains above that of
Box 3: Maintaining service delivery outcomes with fewer resources
Mozambique has invested significant fertility levels and education outcomes
public resources in education and health have been low, making improvements in
since the start of the decade. On-budget family planning and skills a priority for the
spending on priority social and economic social sectors’ agenda.
sectors has averaged 19 percent of GDP
between 2010 and 2016, with education Efficiency gains have been limited and
and health benefiting from over half of this. outcomes remain below par. Despite
Since 2011, on-budget resources invested the sharp pick-up in spending, secondary
in the education and health sectors school completion rates have been held
averaged 6.8 percent and 3.3 percent of back by low retention and high dropout
GDP annually, respectively, surpassing the rates; Mozambique’s gross intake ratio to
averages in Sub-Saharan Africa (4 percent the last grade of secondary was 22 percent
and 2.5 percent of GDP, respectively). in 2014, versus 41 percent in SSA countries.
Closer analysis of budget execution data Low quality of service delivery has also
shows a four-fold increase in amounts contributed to poor results in education
spent on reproductive and maternal health as shortfalls in teacher qualification, as
between 2010 and 2014. Similarly, spending well as high absenteeism rates, impede
on secondary schooling accounted for 22 learning outcomes (World Bank 2014
percent of total education spending in 2016, Service Delivery Indicator survey).
from a low of 3 percent five years earlier. Moreover, adolescent pregnancy rates are
Despite this, Mozambique has elevated amongst the highest in the world (top 5)
20 According to quarterly Budget Execution Reports for 2017, overruns in wage spending result partly from the unplanned admission
of 4,534 new staff in 2016 and the inclusion of 605 health workers, formerly covered by external funds through PROSAUDE, in
the central government wage bill.
21 This includes education, health, infrastructure, agriculture and rural development, the judicial system and social welfare and work.
22 Social and economic sector spending accounted for roughly 76 percent of total investment spending in the first 9 months of 2017.
15
mozambique economic update december 2017
and fertility rates have remained above both inefficiencies in the composition of staff,
the low-income country and SSA average, which increases costs of service delivery.
whilst use of modern contraceptive
methods remained low. Recent World Expenditure in the health and education
Bank reviews of public expenditure on sectors has contracted by 10 percent in
health and education in Mozambique 2017 in real terms, limiting the availability
highlight spending inefficiencies as part of resources to improve health outcomes,
of the problem. Comparing expenditure increase skills, and help families manage
efficiency rates in 1998-99 to 2009-14, fertility, all key inputs to securing the
Mozambique has shown improvements potential for a demographic dividend for
in gross enrollment rates achieved at the Mozambique. With the health and education
cost of higher expenditure than expected. sectors now no longer in a growing
Similarly, provincial level analysis finds that budget context, increased efficiency will
inefficiency in health spending is linked be necessary for protecting past gains and
to inequitable resource allocation and improving future outcomes.
Sources: Education Public Expenditure Review, Health Public Expenditure Review and Service Delivery Indicator survey (World
Bank), Conta Geral do Estado (MEF), UNFPA, UNESCO.
Figure 21: On-budget spending on health and education has remained constant.
On-budget spending on priority sectors, 2010 – 16 (% of GDP)
Source: MEF
Figure 22: Investment in secondary Figure 23: …but spending has been
education has increased significantly in inefficient compared to peers…
Relative Efficiency of Public Spending on Education
recent years… Structural Country-Specific Effects, 1990-2013*
Spending on secondary schooling, 2009 - 16 Indicator:
Relative Grossof
efficiency Enrollment Ratio: Primary
public spending to Tertiary**
in education,
(MZN million; % of total education expenditure) 1990 - 2013
4 Most Efficient Overachievers
GER higher than expected GER higher than expected
Gov. Educ. Exp. GDP lower than Gov. Educ. Exp./GDP
expected higher than
3
0
-3
Underachievers Least efficient
GER lower than expected GER lower than expected
Gov. Educ. Exp/GDP lower than Gov. Educ. Exp./GDP higher
-4 expected than expected
Country effect in st. dev. of expenditure measure
SSA
Source: MEF Source: World Bank
16
part one: recent economic developments
Figure 24: Fertility rates are high when Figure 25: …despite higher spending on
compared to peer countries… reproductive and maternal health since 2012
Fertility rate, 2009 - 15 Reproductive and maternal health spending, 2009 – 16
(births per woman) (MZN million; % of total health expenditure)
6.5 5,000 30%
4,000 25%
6.0
20%
3,000
5.5 15%
2,000
10%
5.0
1,000
5%
4.5 - 0%
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016e
Source: UNFPA Source: MEF
Debt: lower but still high. nominal increase in revenue collection when
compared to the expected outturn for 2017
The appreciation of the metical and reduced (equivalent to 2.3 percent of GDP). Whilst the
external borrowing helped to lower external implementation of revenue enhancement
debt from 103 percent of GDP at end 2016 mechanisms, such as the recently approved
to an estimated 83 percent by end 2017. customs tariffs adjustments could contribute
Domestic debt levels also have increased, to this forecast, weakened output in several
pushing total debt to an estimated 99 percent key sectors is likely to challenge this. This
of GDP.23 This continues to be an unsustainably optimistic approach to the budget brings
high level of debt with a high burden in terms significant downside risks should revenue
of debts service. Without progress in the collection falter, and could result in a
debt restructuring process launched by the substantial increase in the fiscal deficit as
government in October 2016 and measures well as further accumulation of arrears. The
to control spending, including the adoption of proposed budget seeks to decrease the
a target for a primary surplus in the medium wage bill to 10.4 percent of GDP by reducing
term, it will be unlikely that Mozambique will personnel benefits and reducing admissions.24
be able to restore fiscal sustainability. Investment spending is budgeted to increase
by 3.1 percent of GDP in 2018, with a focus
The 2018 budget is ambitious and seeks on resuming funding to ongoing investment
to boost revenues, but is exposed to projects, but may be under-executed if the
important fiscal risks. projected revenue growth fails to materialize
or salary spending overshoots as occurred in
The 2018 budget seeks to increase revenues the past two years.
whilst rebalancing spending, but may be
optimistic. The Government’s budget proposal Fiscal risks remain elevated in 2018,
for 2018 ambitiously foresees a 20 percent particularly from state-owned enterprises.
23 Public and publicly guaranteed government debt as at September 2017. These figures do not include the non-guaranteed debt
of public sector entities.
24 Based on WB GDP estimates. According to the 2018 budget proposal, spending on basic salaries is expected to increase, whilst
other personnel expenses including travel subsistence allowances is expected to decline. In addition, planned admissions to the
education sector have slowed by almost 75 percent.
17
mozambique economic update december 2017
Mozambique’s state-owned enterprises always been a major source of fiscal risk in
continue to be an important source of Mozambique, and remain a concern. Lastly,
fiscal risk as they navigate the effects of the start of the electoral cycle with local
the economic downturn, the costs of their government elections scheduled for 2018 and
debt portfolios, and their internal operating preparations for the 2019 national elections
inefficiencies. Moreover, adverse weather are likely to add to the expenditure needs in
events such as flooding and storms have the next two years.
Table 2: Central Government Finances
(percent of GDP) 2016 2017 2018
Estimates Estimate Budget Law
Total Revenue 24.0 25.5 25.0
Tax Revenues 20.1 22.0 21.0
Of which:
Capital Gains Tax 2.8
Non-Tax Revenue 3.9 3.5 4.0
Grants 2.2 1.2 1.9
Total Expenditure 30.2 29.3 29.8
Current Expenditure 21.2 23.2 20.7
Of which:
Compensation to employees 11.3 11.4 10.4
Interest on public debt 2.9 3.8 3.7
Capital Expenditure 8.8 6.0 9.1
Domestically financed 3.4 2.9 3.8
Externally financed 5.3 3.1 5.4
Net Lending 2.0 2.1 1.5
Payment in Arrears 1.3 … …
Overall Balance -7.3 -4.7 -4.3
Primary Balance -4.4 -0.9 -0.6
Overall Balance (excluding capital gains tax) -7.3 -7.5 -4.3
Primary Balance (excluding capital gains tax) -4.4 -3.7 -0.6
GDP (nominal, MZN billions) 689 787 891
Source: MEF and World Bank staff estimates
Notes to table: 1) Expenditures for 2016 and 2017 are estimated on a commitment basis;
2) Nominal GDP for 2017 and 2018 is based on World Bank estimates.
18
part one: recent economic developments
Figure 26: Central bank advances have been Figure 27: The Government wage bill remains
increasingly financing the fiscal deficit. sticky and above peer countries.
Stock of domestic debt by funding source, 2014 – 17 Central Government wage bill in peer countries, 2013 – 16
(MZN millions) (% of GDP)
120,000 20%
100,000
15%
80,000
60,000 10%
40,000
5%
20,000
0 0%
Dec ‘14 Dec ‘15 Dec ‘16 Jun ‘17 Sep ‘17 2013 2014 2015 2016
Source: MEF; BdM Source: World Bank
Outlook
A positive outlook in the external percent in 2017, average coal prices could fall
environment as commodity prices stabilize by 17 percent next year as global supply picks
and growth picks up in advanced and up.26 Prices for coking coal, which represents
emerging economies. two thirds of total coal exports, have remained
buoyant after peaking at USD 304 in mid-
Global economic activity is strengthening April, but global forecasts predict a reduction
and set to continue into 2018. Growth in in prices through to the end of the decade
emerging market and developing economies (table 3). In this context, the risk of volatile
is expected to rise over the coming year, commodity prices is important in making the
supported by improved external factors and a case for further diversification in the country’s
pick-up in commodity prices. Downside risks to export composition – moving towards increased
growth in sub-Saharan Africa have risen due to value added in agriculture and growth in
country-specific factors in the region’s largest manufacturing.
economies. In particular, growth prospects
remain subdued in South Africa, a major trading Mozambique’s growth trajectory is
partner for Mozambique, despite more favorable expected to remain off course in the
commodity export prices as uncertainty weakens medium term, in the absence of more
consumer and investor confidence.25 decisive policy measures.
The commodity price recovery is set to stabilize Growth is expected to fall to 3.1 percent in
in the near-term with likely downside risks to 2017, and is likely to remain subdued with
coal prices. Developments in the coal sector downside risks in view. The surge in coal
have been central in 2017, with export levels exports and a stabilizing currency have been
set to double this year. Having increased by 29 positive developments in 2017. Despite this,
25 IMF World Economic Prospects, October 2017.
26 World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2017.
19
mozambique economic update december 2017
World Bank growth estimates for the year have Prudent budget management and increased
been revised downwards, from 4.6 percent to efficiency in spending are key priorities as
3.1 percent as growth in other sectors has been the fiscal outlook remains under significant
downcast. Estimates for the two subsequent pressure. This includes measures to limit wage
years have also been lowered to growth levels bill growth, withstand climate shocks, and
that are relatively flat around the 3 percent manage the costs of the upcoming electoral
mark. Reduced confidence and investment, cycle. Enhancing the credibility and realism of
uncertainty with regards to the fiscal outlook, the budget and improving reporting methods
and tight monetary policy are contributing to is a necessary requirement for Mozambique
these muted expectations for growth in the to address the accumulation of arrears. An
medium term. This already overcast outlook equal amount of effort should be directed
is subject to downward risks, which are towards improving revenue administration
characteristic of Mozambique’s economy: and restarting the investment program to
exposure to flooding and drought, and to promote long term growth. And with over a
commodity market fluctuations. Weaknesses year since Mozambique signaled the need for
in the state enterprise sector are an additional debt restructuring, the conditions for improved
source of risk that has become more confidence and macroeconomic sustainability
pronounced in recent years. But most of all, will not be present without a breakthrough in
the continued absence of a firm fiscal recovery these negotiations.
program to restore confidence, and improve
macroeconomic policy coordination, would Ongoing efforts to reform the state-owned
make it difficult for the economy to recuperate: enterprise sector and the management of
the implementation of a reform package that guarantees must be solidified to better manage
balances fiscal and monetary policy is a pre- fiscal risks. Mozambique has started to address
condition for a stable economic recovery. the significant gaps in the frameworks for
supervision and control of fiscal risks. Oversight
Mozambique must undertake significant of the state-owned enterprise sector must be
structural and governance reforms to strengthened, including better reporting and
realize its growth potential. In addition to concrete recovery plans for entities in financial
the challenge of restoring macroeconomic distress. In terms of debt management,
stability, reestablishing confidence through the introduction of a comprehensive debt
improved economic governance and increased management law, as well as guidelines for
transparency, including the transparent handling management of guarantees and on-lending,
of the hidden debts investigation, are crucial would help limit future risks and strengthen
elements for Mozambique’s recovery. Moreover, public finances.
structural reforms are needed in support of
the currently struggling private sector. Speedy The external current account will
implementation of such reforms will make narrow further before expanding in the
firms more resilient and competitive, and will medium term.
promote diversification in the economy. With
a large share of the population under the age The current account deficit is expected to
of 18, investments in health, education and contract to 13 percent of GDP in 2018 before
job creation will be crucial for Mozambique expanding to accommodate the early phases of
to capitalize on its demographic composition LNG development. The increase in coal exports,
(see part two for a discussion of how investing lower import levels and capital gains tax receipts
in the demography can create conditions for will contribute to a further narrowing in the
economic growth). current account deficit to 12 percent of GDP in
2017. In the medium-term, a rise in megaproject
Significant challenges continue to imports resulting from gas investments is
compromise the fiscal outlook, requiring expected to widen the current account deficit,
deeper reforms to restore the health of supported by an accompanying increase in FDI.
public finances.
20
part one: recent economic developments
Table 3: Outlook
2016 2017p 2018p 2019p
External Scenario
Real GDP (% ∆)
Euro Area 1.8 2.1 1.9 1.5
China 6.7 6.7 6.4 6.3
Sub-Saharan Africa 1.6 3.0 3.8 4.0
South Africa 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.7
Nominal Commodity Price
Aluminum USD/mt 1,604 1,950 1,968 1,987
Coal, Australia USD/mt 66 85 70 60
Coking coal, Australia USD/t 146 194 132 115
Natural gas, Europe USD/mmbtu 4.6 5.5 5.7 5.8
Tobacco USD/mt 4,806 4,850 4,822 4,794
Domestic Scenario
Real GDP and Current Account Deficit
Real GDP, % ∆ 3.8 3.1 3.2 3.4
Current Account Deficit, % of GDP -36.1 -11.8 -13.3 -30.4
Source: World Bank, Bloomberg; p = Projection
21
mozambique economic update december 2017
Part Two:
Searching for the
Demographic
Dividend
Nothing will determine Mozambique’s percent of the population in 1950, to more than
future poverty rate more than forthcoming 45 percent in 2015. From about 2000-2010,
demographic changes, and the country’s ability there was no progress toward a demographic
to benefit from them. Based on recent analyses transformation; in fact, high fertility levels
conducted by the World Bank,27 this section appeared to have increased further. By 2011, the
begins by presenting the current panorama of total fertility rate was estimated at 5.9 children per
population trends in Mozambique. To make woman on average,28 one of the highest rates in
the most of this opportunity for reducing future the world and almost one child more than the
poverty levels, three sets of recommendations are average for sub-Saharan Africa (see Figure 28). As
then considered: first, how to trigger the fertility in many other high-fertility countries, the number
transition; second, where to focus human capital of children per woman is higher among the
investments to optimize the skills development most vulnerable households: those in the lowest
for the labor market; and third, what policies income quintiles, with no formal education, living
offer the best chance for the next generation of in rural areas, and concentrated in the Northern
Mozambicans to find good jobs and be productive and Central regions (Figure 29). Moreover, infant
in those jobs. It concludes by estimating the mortality is still high at 83 deaths among 1,000 live
effects of implementing these policies, and find births and life expectancy at birth remains low, at
that achieving a low fertility scenario represents only 55 years for both sexes.
an enormous boost in real per capita GDP of 31
percent by 2050. Perhaps more importantly, in Mozambique,
although the desired number of children
A Worrying Demographic among women is high, the observed fertility
is even higher. Figure 30 shows that overall,
Picture men have on average the number of children
that they desire, such that the total fertility rate
High fertility rates have characterized
(TFR) matches the men’s desired fertility. This
Mozambique’s demographic trends.
is likely driven by the unequal gender relations
dominant in Mozambique, compounded by poor
Mozambique lags behind other sub-Saharan
women’s lower education levels and productive
African countries in kicking off a demographic
opportunities. As a result, women’s family size
transition. Mozambique’s population is
preference is influenced by husbands or partners
dominated by a very young age structure.
and other family members’ desires. This is
Children aged 0-14 went from representing 40
27 Searching for the Demographic Dividend in Mozambique: An Urgent Agenda (2016).
28 Based on DHS (2011). More recent preliminary estimates place this closer to 5.3. The ongoing population census will provide
more updated, precise estimates
22
part two: searching for the demographic dividend
consistent with evidence from elsewhere, such as the demographic transition is therefore not
Nigeria and Malawi (Ibisomi and Odimegu, 2008; about changing cultural norms or preferences.
Yeatman and Sennott, 2014). Rather, it is about equipping these families with
the knowledge and services that will empower
The gap between observed and desired fertility them to take control of their fertility, and achieve
is even more prevalent among the poor. Among their desired family size. This would also include
the poorest 40 percent who reside mainly in addressing Mozambique’s unenviable record of
rural areas, women have on average between the country with the fourth-highest prevalence
1 and 1.5 children more than desired. For the of teenage marriage in the world, with half of
men, it is between 0.5 and 1 child more than Mozambican women married or mothers by the
reportedly desired. For these groups, triggering age of 18.
Figure 28: Mozambique Lags Behind SSA Figure 29: Socio-Economic Inequality is
Countries in the Demographic Transition Reflected by Unequal Fertility
Total fertility rate in peer countries, 1950 - 2015 Total fertility rates
Source: United Nations Source: DHS (2011)
Figure 30: Observed fertility is higher than desired for the lowest quintiles
Desired and Observed fertility rate per wealth quintile
7.2 7.2
6.8 6.8
6.3 6.3
5.9 5.9 5.9
5.6 5.6 5.3 5.6
4.6 4.9
4.2
3.6 3.7
Source: DHS (2011)
23
mozambique economic update december 2017
Box 4: What is the Demographic Dividend and how does it impact Poverty Reduction?
Demographic characteristics can help or put the next generation at risk in terms of
hinder economic activity. Changes in the employability and wellbeing, and exert a drag
working-age share of the population can on the state as large cohorts of people don’t
affect growth and savings and, subsequently, acquire the right skills, and are therefore not
income per capita. For example, rising as productive as they could be. As a result,
working-age population shares could lead to they are likely to be more dependent on
proportionally more income earners in the government assistance.
economy and thus greater growth per capita.
Changes in the age structure also affect the But changes in demographic trends can
resource constraints faced by households and also boost growth and shared prosperity. If
the state for social spending. For example, if accompanied by proper socio-economic
households have fewer children, they would policies, a decrease in the fertility rate can
have more resources to spend on human bring an increase in the share of people of
capital and consumption. In other words, working age. If productively employed, this
more money for families to spend to ensure large cohort of workers can bring along an
their kids are well-fed, attend school regularly increase in the nation’s income and savings,
and on-time, and are generally well cared for. thereby improving per capita well-being – the
first demographic dividend. The beneficiaries
Usually, demographic trends differ across of the first demographic dividend may
different socio-economic groups within each take advantage of increased savings and
country. Fertility is typically higher among the investments during a second demographic
poor and most vulnerable. Demography can dividend. Increased income and savings can
thus reinforce a vicious cycle of poverty and be invested in physical and human capital
inequality, as low-income households have of smaller cohorts of children, leading to an
less income to be invested, across more intergenerational virtuous cycle of improving
children. A small investment in human capital social welfare.
divided into a large cohort of children can
Figure 31: Conceptual Framework: The Demographic Dividends
Triggering an inclusive fertility transition, cannot do the job alone: the gains from
focusing on the most vulnerable groups the demographic transition will not accrue
in the population, is therefore essential to automatically, but will depend on a country’s
put high-fertility countries on a path toward ability to set appropriate policies to reap the
boosted growth, poverty reduction, and potential rewards from the demographic
shared prosperity. Demography, however, dividend.
Source: Searching for the Demographic Dividend in Mozambique: An Urgent Agenda, World Bank
24
part two: searching for the demographic dividend
A Three-Pillar Policy
Framework to Harness the
Demographic Dividend
To transform the demographic challenge into particularly girls in school up to completion of
an economic opportunity, Mozambique must at least secondary education29 or vocational
actively promote policies to trigger the fertility training through scholarships and or conditional
transition, educate its young population, and cash transfers would help reduce opportunity
promote productive employment among the costs to their families including contributing
emerging working-age population. to inhibit early marriage and early pregnancy.
In addition, provision of improved and scaled
Changing the fertility trend. sexual and reproductive health (SRH) services
in schools (including dimensions of gender
Offering family planning information and based violence) can further reduce unwanted
services is key to ushering in demographic pregnancies. For girls out of school, it means
change. In the agenda to harness a demographic reaching out to non-formal service providers,
dividend, the most urgent item is certainly and thinking about youth-friendly services, such
to empower families to make informed as NGOs, Community health workers, whereby
reproductive decisions, by offering family girls can have access to requisite SRH services
planning information and services that could and support to learn and acquire life skills.
help women and men better meet their own
aspirations for family size, and to avoid unwanted There is therefore an urgent need for family
pregnancies. There are several factors that drive planning policies to increase information
family size, many of which relate to cultural about, and access to, services for reproductive,
norms and preferences (on the “demand” side, maternal, newborn, child, and adolescent
as seen re: desired fertility vs. observed fertility) health. Importantly, the likelihood of these
and others to the availability of services (on the programs to be successful in reducing excess
“supply” side). In the case of Mozambique, given fertility and maternal mortality, particularly
that among the poorer quintiles desired fertility is among adolescent girls will depend on strong
lower than actual fertility, a first step is to support political commitment, the adoption of strong
those parents such that they achieve the family social support including the role of community
size desired. This means considering “supply- leaders, politicians, opinion leaders, advocating
side” factors such as the availability of various for the elimination of early marriage/ early
forms of contraception, and more effective childbirth. The recent involvement of the First
education on their usage. This is especially true Lady and members of Parliament in a social
for rural residents and women from lower socio- campaign against early marriage paves the
economic groups. In 2011, only 11 percent of way for changing the social and cultural norms
couples used modern contraceptive methods, around child marriage. Aside from the health
while 28 percent of married women had an sector, in Mozambique SRH programs must
unmet need for contraception. also be channeled through interventions in
the education sector and in the labor market.
Early age at first sexual intercourse, which is A more educated population and an inclusive,
linked to early marriage and childbirth, is also well-functioning labor market are perhaps the
a clear determinant of fertility. Delaying the most promising drivers to lower fertility as they
onset of early marriage and childbirth requires increase the opportunity costs of giving birth
a concerted effort across sectors and service early and having large households.
providers. Schooling serves as one promising
protective factor. Keeping adolescents, Accelerating women’s access to the labor
29 Secondary level education makes a difference in a range of health outcome statistics: Women with secondary education use
more modern contraceptive methods, their children have better nutritional status, are likely to be fully immunized and tend to
deliver their babies in a facility and or by a skilled health professional.
25
mozambique economic update december 2017
markets would also help reduce fertility. When were to be implemented overnight in 2018, then
the opportunity cost of women increases, by 2042, nearly 80 percent of Mozambique’s
because of being employed in productive labor force would have studied at least one
jobs, the demand for having children (in year under the new system. Half of the labor
both members of the couple) drops. Hence, force could thus be upgraded in two decades
female employment, particularly in wage with the requisite cognitive and socioemotional
employment, contributes to reducing fertility skills needed to succeed in the workplace, while
rates. Ensuring that women are competitive it would take at least four or five decades in
in the labor market, and have increasing demographically older countries such as Brazil
access to jobs, may represent a double push or Russia. Defining what this “new educational
for the economy: GDP growth today and system” should look like extends beyond this
demographic dividend tomorrow. short note, but it necessarily requires at least
three things:
Equipping the next generation with the
right skills. i) Teachers that are properly recruited, prepared,
managed, and motivated;
Mozambique needs to address its shortfalls ii) Children that are ready to enter school, thanks
in education outcomes. The second pillar of to interventions during the early years;
the policy response framework is to properly iii) Spaces and materials adequate for learning,
educate Mozambique’s young population. The especially at the secondary level.
current levels of education attainment are dismal.
The average number of years of education for Special focus should be placed on creating
the cohort born in 1980-1989 was as low as conditions that empower female education.
3.8. Teachers, who represent the main drivers Adequate spaces imply schools that have
to ensuring that children learn, are on average separate bathrooms for boys and girls, and
absent from the classroom 56 percent of the that generally promote a healthy, welcoming
time (World Bank, 2015). Even worse, when the environment for young women. Rates of male
teachers are present, they do not master the and female enrollment tend to be similar from
content of the education curricula enough to primary level through grade 9th. However, when
teach it: only 65 percent of teachers can do they reach secondary level or grades 10th, 11th
double-digit subtraction. If the next generation and 12th their participation reduces significantly
of workers is not adequately equipped with (6.4 percent for males and 4.8 percent for
the cognitive and socioemotional skills usually females). To help enroll and keep girls in
acquired in school, they will not fulfill their schools, actions on the demand-side, such as
productive potential in the labor market, and scholarships or other forms of cash transfers,
the dividend will not be fully exploited. can help parents invest in their daughters as
described above.
Despite being well on the way to universal
primary enrollment, many children remain out Promoting productive employment.
of the system. Currently, Mozambique is not
providing those students with any skills. Even Mozambique’s ability to boost growth and
for those in the education system, progressing reduce poverty through the demographic
through the grades remains a challenge: 40 dividend will depend on the working age
percent of adolescents aged 15 years old had population having access to productive jobs.
either given up or were still trying to get to fifth The labor force will grow rapidly over the next
grade. Despite spending many years in school, two decades, at a rate of almost 500,000 people
students do not receive an adequate quality of per year. The Mozambique Jobs Diagnostic
learning in Mozambique, as revealed by multiple shows that the share of the labor force in private
global, regional, and national assessments. sector formal jobs tripled from 4 percent to 12
percent between 1996 and 2015, but it remains
The demographic transition offers a singular low. All the recent growth in formal wage jobs
opportunity to rapidly improve the educational is in the services sector (including commerce
level of the workforce. Given the country’s very and construction). The higher the proportion of
young age structure, if a new education system new entrants that gets formal jobs, the faster the
26
part two: searching for the demographic dividend
rates of informality and poverty decline. Figure business skills. Policies to promote better jobs
33 projects the size of the informal sector under in self-employment should concentrate on
scenarios of 5 percent and 8 percent formal job enhancing skills and strengthening linkages to
growth. The projections show that even if formal product markets, finance and technology, for
jobs continue to grow at rapid rates, informal example, through aggregator schemes that link
economic activities, including smallholder smallholder farmers to agribusiness. Peri-urban
agriculture, will remain important, especially horticulture is one example of a high potential
for the bottom 40 percent of the income sector for good quality non-wage jobs. To ensure
distribution. So, jobs policies should focus both that disadvantaged youth and women can get
on accelerating the growth of formal wage jobs access to better jobs opportunities, whether
and on enhancing earnings opportunities for in formal wage jobs or in self-employment,
those who remain in the informal sector, either active labor market policies should focus on
in agriculture or in non-farm self-employment those demographics. To help young people
(so-called “household enterprises”). These two overcome the obstacles to getting their first jobs,
processes are linked, because many informal jobs the Government might also want to consider
depend on the spending power of households establishing lower minimum wages for youth,
that work in the formal sector and most of targeted internship programs, or supporting
Mozambique’s non-farm “household enterprises” intermediary services focused on those groups.
are located in the periphery of urban centers.
Measures to restore macroeconomic stability
Policies to accelerate formal sector jobs growth and raise overall economic competitiveness
should address the multiple market and policy are also fundamental. Among these is the
failures that undermine the growth of private need to reestablish fiscal sustainability and to
businesses – especially of small and medium maintain a stable and competitive real exchange
sized enterprises (SMEs), which are often rate. Overcoming the factors that limit the
engaged in labor intensive activities and find competitiveness of the private sector and its
it difficult to overcome the multiple problems resilience to shocks are also a priority, including
linked to doing business in Mozambique. The enhancing the quality and scope of key transport
rapid recent growth of formal wage jobs in infrastructure (road, ports and rail), easing access
commerce and services suggests there is good to credit, and adopting labor policies that promote
potential to accelerate job creation in those the competitiveness of firms. Improvements in
sectors. Relevant policies include support to SMEs these areas will boost the overall investment
to overcome difficulties in accessing capital, or climate in Mozambique, bringing needed capital,
through technical assistance to strengthen their and, eventually, productive jobs.
Figure 32: The growth rate of formal jobs will be crucial to the rate of decline in informality
Informal sector jobs
(a) Absolute size (b) Relative size
2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050
5% rate 8% rate
Source: Searching for the Demographic Dividend in Mozambique: An Urgent Agenda (2016)
27
mozambique economic update december 2017
Estimating the Effects of low (2.89 children) - by 2050 can lead to a 31
percent increase in real GDP per capita.30
Implementing Key Policies
Eradicating extreme poverty, however, will
What would the future look like for Mozambicans
require more than just lower fertility rates. If, in
if these policies were implemented and
addition to sparking the demographic transition
successful? Econometric modeling helps us
more quickly, Mozambique is able to implement
quantify the gains in triggering and benefiting from
a comprehensive policy response relating to
the demographic dividend, charting pathways for
education, the labor market, and investment
economic growth and poverty reduction. The
climate, gains would be even larger. Figure 34
analysis below (Figure 33) considers four future
shows the share of the poverty rate that would be
fertility scenarios for Mozambique between now
reduced under different scenarios. If only fertility is
and 2050. Under a constant scenario, where
reduced, using the medium variant scenario, then
fertility remains at about 5.4 for the foreseeable
that would already bring poverty down to just 38
future, the expected real per capita GDP would be
percent of what it would be at constant levels.
about USD 1341. The high variant scenario, where
Changes in fertility and educational improvements
modest changes in fertility rates are achieved,
could reduce poverty by an additional 20 percent
allows Mozambique to transition from a pre-
from the constant fertility scenario, and still a
dividend country (TFR above 4 children) to an
further 3 percent, should Mozambique achieve the
early dividend (TFR less than 4 children) one by
low variant fertility scenario. In short, Mozambique
2050, and reach a real GDP per capita of USD
will only be able to eradicate extreme poverty by
1813. The speed of the fertility transition is key.
2050 if demographic changes are accompanied
Results suggest that a one child difference in
by other reforms such as needed changes to the
Mozambique’s fertility rate – that is, the difference
education system.
between the high variant (3.89 children) and the
Figure 33: Achieving the Low Fertility Scenario Figure 34: Only by Improving Education and
Means an Enormous Boost in GDP per Capita Reducing Fertility that Mozambique Eradicates
by 2050 Extreme Poverty by 2050
Expected real GDP per capita (USD) under different Poverty headcount rate as a percentage of the “Constant
scenarios, 2015 - 50 Fertility” scenario.31
Constant fertility
Medium variant
High variant 38
Low variant
18
15
Source: Searching for the Demographic Dividend in Mozambique: An Urgent Agenda (2016)
Note: for Figure 33, the model assumes a starting point TFR of 5.3 in 2015, with the difference between the high and low variant
scenarios equal to one child less per woman by 2050
30 Fertility rates are based on the UN population projections. The fertility rate of 3.89 is based on a slow uptake of family planning
methods whilst the rate of 2.89 corresponds to the replacement rate, whereby no population growth occurs.
31 Graph shows the expected poverty headcount, as a percentage of the poverty headcount under a "constant fertility” scenario.
28
part two: searching for the demographic dividend
Demography is not destiny: policies and share of the population is of working-age. If this
programs can be designed and implemented happens, and the working-age population can
to help Mozambicans understand the benefits find good jobs, the economy will grow faster
from having smaller families, and support them and poverty will also decline more rapidly.
in reaching their desired family size. This, in This is the potential opportunity presented by
turn, would encourage more rapid progress in a demographic transition in Mozambique. If
health and education outcomes for mothers eradicating extreme poverty is our intended
and children, and would eventually result in a destination, nothing will be more influential in
more favorable age structure where a larger helping us get there.
29
mozambique economic update december 2017
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