37329 WORLD BANK HRESEARCH NEWS Volume 1 Number 1 January 1980 CONTENTS An Overview of Research at the World Bank 1 Hollis B. Chenery and Rachel Weaving Completed Research The Role of Feeder Roads in Rural Development 9 Standards of Reliability of Urb'an Electricity Supply 10 Appropriate Technology for Water Supply and Waste Disposal 11 Pricing and Investment in Telecommunications 12 New Research Small-Scale Enterprise Development 13 The Determinants of Railway Traffic, Freight Transport, and the Choice of Transport Modes 14 Real Incomes and Economic Welfare of Selected Socioeconomic Groups in Colombia, 1964-78 14 New and Forthcoming Publications 15 World Banik Research News will be issued three times a year. It supplements the descriptions of socio- economic research projects in progress given in the annual World Bank Research Programil: Abstracts of Curlrent Studies. Research News is available free of charge to institutions and individuals with a professional interest in development. To be placed on the mailing list or to receive additional copies, please send a complete address, including your title, to the Publications Unit, World Bank, 1818 H Street N.W., Washington, D.C. 20433. U.S.A. Enquiries on particular research projects should be addressed to the individuals or departments cited. Other enquiries, comments, and suggestions for future issues will be welcomed and should be addressed to the Editor, Office of the Vice President. Development Policy, World Bank. 1818 H Street N.W., Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A. i: \ (Rl.l) 11 XNI - Il AN OVERVIEW OF Vice President for Development Policy and drawxn from all parts of the Bank, which scrutinizes their con- RESEARCH AT tent and authorizes funding. THE WORLD BANK The Bank's operating needs call for research in a wide Hollis B. Chenerv and Rachel ti', i ',i range of specialized areas, hut the expertise of the Development PolicY' Statf research staff has necessarily been concentrated in about a dozen fields. In other areas, in which the Bank has only a few researchers, their efforts have been confined to supervising work done by consultants or other institutions, and keeping up with the state of Over the last decade, the World Bank has emerged as knowledge. a prominent producer of research on development issues. It devotes roughly 3 percent of its administra- Collaboration with researchers in developing countries tive budget, or about USSIO million annually, to social takes many forms. Projects that involve the collection and economic research, with the following broad of primary data almost by definition require the collab- objectives: oration of local researchers in both design and execu- tion. Many projects are carried out almost exclusively . To support all aspects of the Bank's operations. by researchers of developing countries. For example. a including the assessment of development progress study of how the economies of Bangladesh and Pakistan in member countries. are affected by labor migration to the Middle East is * To broaden understanding of the development being carried out by the Pakistan Institute of Develop- process. ment Economics and, in Bangladesh, by the Bureau * To improve the Bank's capacity to give policy of Manpower, Employment and Training, the Bangla- advice to its members. desh Bank, the Manpower Section of the Planning * To help-develop indigenous research capacity in Commission, and Dacca University. Advice on sampling member countries. techniques, cost-benefit analysis, and shadow pricing is being provided by consultants under the auspices The research program in its present form was started of the project. Several of the comparative research in 1972. The objectives and character of the program projects include country studies done by experts in have been shaped by the World Bank's own needs as a national institutions. the results of which are then lending institution and a source of policy advice to synthesized by the coordinating authors in the Bank. member governments, and by the needs of member An example is a project on the sources of industrial countries. The selection of topics has also been influ- growth and structural change, with country studies enced by the unique relationship the Bank maintains being done in the National Taiwan University, the Bank with developing countries through economic missions, of Israel, the Korea Development Institute, and the and the advantages that this confers in comparative Middle East Technical University in Ankara. analysis and in data collection. It is only in the last few years that the research program This article describes how research is organized in the has approached the stage of maturitv where develop- Bank and how the results are communicated. To ment and dissemination of results become as important illustrate the scope of the program. it then gives a brief as the research itself. The audience for which research outline of some of the main projects. Future issues of is done consists of policy and operating staff within Research ,Vewis will contain articles describing what the Bank. planners and policy makers in developing has been learned, and how the objectives of research countries, and the international development commu- have evolved, in particular subject areas. nity, including other researchers. Though priority is given to the Bank's own needs, many of the research results useful for internal purposes attract wide interest The Organization of Research outside. Dissemination of results to the research com- munity can be important in stimulating other applica- The bulk of the Bank's research is done in the Devel- tions and further research on matters of practical opment Policy Staff (DPS) and the Central Projects interest to developing countries. Staff (CPS). with a small but growing participation by the six Regional Offices, which are mostly responsible All research projects yield some form of written report. for the Bank's operational work. Research projects are Book-length manuscripts are published by the Bank if usually prepared within the Bank. The larger ones are they are judged suitable by its Publications Committee. submitted to a Research Committee, chaired by the which acts on the advice of Bank staff and outside reviewers. Preliminary results are normally presented tional framework of project analysis have already been in the World Bank Staff Working Paper series or in widely adopted in operations. The volume also laid the departmental papers. Some of these are later published groundwork for incorporating explicit concerns with in professional journals. Seminars and sometimes con- income distribution and poverty into project analysis. ferences are held in the course of implementation and The changes to the traditional framework that these when projects are completed. concerns entail are being introduced gradually into the Bank's work. After some further refinement, new tech- The ways in which the results of research are adopted niques of project analysis have been the subject of and used vary widely. Sometimes a project leads a series of week-long workshops, organized by the directly to the introduction of a new method or a Projects Advisory Staff in the Central Projects Staff, change in policies. One such example is the research that has already reached some two hundred opera- on programming in the manufacturing sector, managed tional staff. jointly by the Development Economics Department and the Development Research Center in DPS. This In other cases, research seems likely to have a far- project has designed a methodology for investment reaching influence, but one whose dimensions are planning in industrial subsectors where there are difficult to predict in advance. The International Com- economies of scale, such as the forest industry, steel, parison Project (ICP), which the United Nations and and fertilizer, and where interdependent choices must the World Bank have supported since 1969, addresses be made on scale, timing, location, product mix, and an issue that is fundamental to the understanding of technology. The methodology is described in a series development. Up to now, comparisons of income levels of manuals explicitly addressed to the practical plan- across countries have perforce been made at official ner l; it has been applied in the fertilizer industry in exchange rates. Doing so tends to understate relative the Arab Republic of Egypt, Southeast Asia, and the income levels in poor countries, even though these Andean Common Market. and applications in other countries' exchange rates are often overvalued, subsectors elsewhere are in progress. because of their generally lower prices of nontraded goods. Under the methodology designed by the ICP, Much of the Bank's research in the public utilities and incomes can be compared in terms of purchasing transportation sectors is closely linked with operations. power parities for a broad range of precisely specified from its inception to the dissemination and use of the commodities and services. 5 The methodology has other results. One such example is a research project on pricing and investment in electricity supply, which was IThe series, entitled The Planning of Investment Programs, is completed in 1975. Pricing and investment decisions in edited by Alexander Meeraus and Ardy Stoutjesdijk. David electricity, as in other public utilities, have traditionally Kendrick and Ardy Stoutjesdijk, Volume 1: The Planning of been based on accounting criteria, often with adverse Industrial Investment Programs: A Methodology (Baltimore and London: The Johns Hopkins University Press. 1979): Armeane M. consequences for the allocation of resources. This Choksi. Alexander Meeraus, and Ardy J. Stoutjesdijk, Volume project successfully developed a method for incor- II: The Planning of Investment Programs in the Fertilizer Indus- porating principles of marginal cost pricing into the trv (Baltimore and London: The Johns Hopkins University Press, design of electricity tariff structures. 2 The method was 1980, forthcoming 1. Other volumes are in preparation. See also under the section. "New Books," in this issue. disseminated through regional seminars on power 2Ralph Turvey and Dennis Anderson, Electricity Economics: pricing attended by people from 50 developing coun- Essays and Case Studies (Baltimore and London: The Johns tries. As a direct result of the research, the Bank now Hopkins University Press, 1977). recommends that electricity pricing and investment 3Lyn Squire and Herman G. van der Tak, Economic Analysis of policies in borrowing countries be explicitly based on Projects (Baltimore and London: The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1975: 3rd printing, 1978). an economic analysis of tariff structures, taking account 41n particular, the ideas developed in I.M.D. Little and J.A. of economic efficiency and social objectives. Mirrlecs, Project Appraisal and Planning for the Developing Countries (London: Heinemann Educational Books, 1974), and United Nations Industrial Development Organization, Guidelines One of the largest efforts to transmit the results of for Project Evaluation (New York: United Nations. 1972). research to operating staff within the Bank concerns 5lrving B. Kravis, Zoltan Kenessy, Alan Heston, and Robert methods of evaluating investment projects-an area in Summers. A System of International Comparisons of Gross which thinking has been changing rapidly and in Product and Purchasing Power (Phase IH(Baltimore and London: khas sponsored a considerable amount The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1975): Irving B. Kravis, which the Bank hAlan Heston. and Robert Summers, International Comparisons of research in the last 15 years. One of these studies, of Real Product and Purchasing Power (Phase 11) (Baltimore Economric AnalNsis of Projects, 3 published in 1975. and London: The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1978); and related developments in the literature 4 to traditional Irving B. Kravis, Alan Heston, and Robert Summers. Real pracice oter endig istiutins.Product and Purchasing Power Comparison: A Final Report on practices in the Bank and other lending institutions. the Research Phases of the International Comparison Project Of the improved methods proposed in this volume and (Phase 111, tentative title) (Baltimore and London: The Johns subsequently, those consistent with the Bank's tradi- Hopkins University Press, forthcoming). \I \H' 0116 itIe, - I'r ' Ul sl II NI se5 applications: for example. in comparisons of the The external panel that reviewed the Bank's research incomes of different socioeconomic groups who face on income distribution and employment recommended different price levels. Because the data requirements a considerably greater initiative to assure collection are so exacting. it will be a long time before the ICP and dissemination of reliable, consistent, and continu- approach gains broad currency. But now that the ous data on income distribution and employment." A research project is approaching completion. work on new initiative is being launched in the Bank to coop- international comparisons has been established as part erate with the UN Statistical Office in identifying ways of the permanent program of the UN Statistical Office. of improving the availability of data at the national In the Bank, the kinds of data produced by the project level on household and personal living standards. are finding increasing use in economic work. Further research on applications is being designed by the Despite the data limitations, it has been necessary to Economic Analysis and Projections Department in the form opinions on what has been happening to income Development Policy Staff. distribution and poverty in the course of development. Until recently scholars have had to rely to a large All the Bank's research projects are evaluated by inde- extent on cross-country comparisons of countries at pendent panels on completion; many are also subject different stages of development as a proxy for studies to a mid-term progress review by an advisory group. of change within countries over time. The results of In addition to the routine evaluation arrangements, these studies have been consistent with the hypothesis outside panels of experts have reviewed the Bank's that income inequality first worsens and then improves research on income distribution and employment: agri- as a country's average income grows. culture and rural development; primary commodities: energy, water, and telecommunications; industrial Among the growing body of work on distribution and development and trade; and transportation. A General poverty over time are Growth with Equitv: The Taiw,an Research Advisory Panel, chaired by Sir Arthur Lewis, Case, the outcome of a research project started in made use of the findings of these specialized panels in 19737: a study of trends in poverty and agricultural a report that it submitted to the Bank last autumn. performance in rural India over a 20-year period.8 and Many of its recommendations are now being put into a study of the distribution of income in Brazil. In practice. progress is a comparative analysis of the course of development since the late 1940s in three low-income areas of Asia-Punjab and Kerala in India, and Sri The Scope of the Research Program Lanka-which is examining conflicts and complemen- tarities between the objectives of aggregate economic Incomie Distribution growth and the eradication of poverty. Work on income distribution and poverty-related One of the main features of early work on the causes topics has evolved on three main fronts: the compila- of unequal income distribution and poverty was the tion and evaluation of data, empirical analysis, and the development of economy-wide general equilibrium design of conceptual frameworks. As more information models. These had their roots in neoclassical theory, has become available, as perceptions of development but were also influenced by the structuralist view that objectives have changed, and as the gaps in our knowl- the unequal distribution of income depends upon the edge of how to approach problems of poverty have inherited distribution of assets, which are geared to a become more clearly identified, the attention of particular production structure.The first of the model- researchers has been gradually shifting away from the ing studies used a dynamic general equilibrium model distribution of income toward the characteristics of of the Republic of Korea to analyze the effects on groups in poverty, and what these characteristics imply for the design of policy and project interventions. 6Shail Jain. Size Distribuition ot Income: A CLrnwilatiott o/ Data I Baltimore and London: The Johns Hopkins Unjversity Press, Since data on income distribution and poverty are 1975' sparse and of uncertain quality, one of the first tasks of 7John C.H. Fei. Gustas Ranis, and Shirley W.Y. Kuo, Growth withi Equiity - The Taiwan Case I New York: Oxfordi Unr\ersity the Development Research Center was to collect and Press. 195), forthcoming T. See also under the ection. New evaluate whatever information was available. An early Books.' in this issue of Reseuc/h Nevws. Among the wAtrk stimu- study produced a compilation of data for 81 countries. 6 lated by this study. see especially F. Graham Py.att. Chan-Nan- Raw data for many countries in Latin America and Chen. and John C.l. Fei. The Distribution of Incoime by Asia have been collected from their original sources, Factor Cinponents. firihcoming in thn Qaaitetlr Jornacl o mostly household income and expenditure surveys, 8Montek S. Ahluwalia. Rurai Povertv and Agricultural Perform- and evaluated in cooperation with national govern- ance in India," Journal of Develorptenut Stdclies ( 1977 . World ments and reclional orianizations. Bank Reprint Series: Number Sixty. OR _ __ 1.1 _ It \ KN h i 4 Rl.slARC1 ( H I JALNUARY 1980 different income groups of policy interventions that constructed for Malaysia with the close cooperation of might be undertaken to improve income distribution. 9 the Malaysian Government. 12 It has been followed by others, in the same tradition, for Brazil. Malaysia. and Turkey, the last of which was The Economic Analysis and Projections Department constructed in the course of the Bank's operational has had the main responsibility for the simulation mod- work. These models provide valuable insights into the els that have been used in the Bank's country economic effects of growth on distribution, but they have not yet work for at least a decade. Originally, these models helped very much in the design of policy. Discussions had the modest objective of ensuring that projections of the results of the Korea and Brazil studies in the of sectoral growth, overall growth, fiscal development, Bank and the research community more generallv have the balance of payments, and capital requirements were led some researchers to revise their hopes of using reasonably consistent with one another. But over time, general equilibrium models for such purposes. Several country modeling has become increasingly sophisti- new approaches to the incorporation of income dis- cated, with attempts made to depict how economies tribution considerations within a macroeconomic would react to alternative policy choices, and, hence, framework are now being pursued: among them is the to indicate what options are open to planners. In the development of social accounting matrices for various last two years, a major effort has been devoted to the countries, described in the section which follows. modeling framework for the projections of developing country growth, international trade, and capital flows Part of the reason why some of the simple project underlying the Bank's Woild Development Reports. 13 interventions first attempted have failed to increase liv- ing standards is a lack of understanding of what deter- How easily economic models can be understood, used, mines the distribution of income at the micro level. and communicated depends on how they are docu- The next phase of a research project in India by the mented and on the availability of suitable software. Development Research Center will examine how the The General Algebraic Modeling System being pur- intended effects of public interventions on rural house- sued in the Development Research Center will even- holds may be modified by the structure of transactions tually allow a social scientist with mathematical skills, among households. It is quite common for pairs of who can specify a problem in algebraic form, to com- households to deal simultaneously in more than one municate directly with the computer. market. If, for example. a landlord is also the source of credit for his tenant, a policy intervention that cur- Internationlal Trade tails his power in one market may lead him to compen- sate in the other, offsetting the intended redistributive Because of their importance for developing economies effect of the intervention. the World Bank has, almost from its inception. studied the trade and price prospects of primary and semi- manufactured commodities. This work is now carried Couzntry' Economic Analysis out by the Economic Analysis and Projections Depart- ment; information on the most important commodities A major comparative project is that on Development is published annually by the Bank in Commodity Trade Strategies in Semi-Industrial Countries," whose final and Price Trends. report is shortly to be published by the Bank. This project. managed by Professor Bela Balassa and car- ried out with a number of collaborators, has given 91rma Adelman and Sherman Robinson, Income Distribution particular emphasis to incentive systems and their Policv in the Developing Countries: A Case Study of Korea effects on resource allocation. It extends the method- iStanford: Stanford University Press. 1977, and Oxford: ology presented in an earlier volume by the same Oxford University Press, 1978). author. 1( 1OBela Balassa and others, The Structure of Protection in Develop- ing Countries (Baltimore and London: The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1971). Work is also proceeding in the Development Research ItSee F. Graham Pyatt and Jeffrey 1. Round, "Social Accounting Center on the construction of social accounting Matrices for Development Planning," The Review of Income and matrices, which take the logic of national accounting a Wealth 23 {1977):339-364, World Bank Reprint Series: Number step further by tracing the circular processes of produc- Seventy-four. tion, income, and expenditure for different subsectors Round, "Social s and the Distribution of Income: The (for example. the "formal" and informal" subsectors) Malaysian Economy in 1970," The Review, of Income and and different groups of households. This system allows Wealth (forthcoming I. a great variety of economic data to be presented, and 13Syamaprasad Gupta. et al.. "The World Bank Model for Global can ormthebass ofvaroustyps o coutrymodls.I 1Interdependence: A Quantitative Framework for the World can form the basis of various types of country models. Development Report, "Journal of Policy Modeling. vol. 1(2) Among the first social accounting matrices was that (1979). It. - Studies on the supply side of exports have mainly con- of malnutrition under different policies. The method- centrated on nontraditional exports, particularly of ology was applied in eight country studies, with results manufactured goods. One project managed by the that demonstrate the extent to which malnutrition is a Development Research Center is evaluating the incen- serious problem in developing countries: it appears tives for major export products in three developing that in many countries food distribution and interven- countries, to throw light on appropriate policies for tion schemes will continue to be necessary. Operational export promotion. A growing body of research, in the aspects of food distribution schemes are now being Development Economics Department and the Eco- evaluated. nomic Analysis and Projections Department, is con- cerned with the prospects for further expansion of Another broad group of studies concerns the design manufactured exports. It includes studies of markets of rural development projects. The research has in industrialized countries, the role of institutions in covered a wide range of topics, including appropriate export promotion, and the scope for adjustment poli- levels of field mechanization; the organization and cies in industrialized countries. management of irrigation projects; the role of risk in farmers' decision making. which has implications for Agricultule anid Rural Development the adoption of new inputs and techniques: the partic- ular constraints on production that are faced by small The Bank's socioeconomic research on agriculture and farms; and the diffusion of technology in rural areas. rural development covers a broad spectrum. Much of An early study, which reviewed experience in a large it has to do with the characteristics of the rural poor number of rural development projects supported by the in general and of small farmers in particular. and with Bank in sub-Saharan Africa. has attracted wide interest how traditional societies respond to influences for and has had a pervasive influence on Bank practices modernization: other work has focused on food sup- in this area. 16 plies and on aspects of rural employment. A series of case studies in eight countries investigated An early large-scale research project was a linear pro- the effects of government intervention in agriculture gramming study of the agricultural sector in Mexico through administered prices, taxes. and subsidies. undertaken with the Mexican Government. The proj- The research assessed whether existing agricultural ect developed a planning model that has been used in price and subsidy policies were consistent with agricul- the formulation of agricultural policy; adaptations have tural efficiency and the comparative advantage of the been made for a number of other countries, some with countries concerned, and evaluated their effects on Mexican technical assistance. 14 employment, income distribution, and the balance of payments. Based on the countrv studies, the project A current study in the Development Research Center developed a method of evaluating price distortions and is examining the economic and social effects of the the social losses associated with them. Partlv as a con- Muda River Irrigation Project in Malaysia. The project sequence of this research, pricing issues are receiving has used a social accounting matrix and detailed models increasing attention from the Bank's operating staff in of household and regional economic change to clarify the design of lending programs and projects. Several the structure of the local economy. so that the inter- applications of the nii,.:tl. .d. .1. ., . are in progress. with actions between agriculture and other activities can assistance from the Economics Division of the Agricul- be explored and the secondary effects of the irrigation ture and Rural Development Department. project identified. The food security work program has included studies of the prospects for foodgrain consumption and 14L)Uis M. Goreux and Alan S. Manne, Multi-level Planning. production, and a review of food distribution and Case Studies in Alexico (Amsterdam and London: North- nutrition policies within countries. Research in the Holland Publishing! Company, 1973L. This book shared the 1973 Development Economics Department has been evaluat- Lanchester prize awarded by the Operations Research Society ing the effects of instability in domestic and interna- of America for the best English-language contribution in ing operations research. tional supplies of foodgrains on the consumption levels t5Shlomo Reutlinger. "Food Insecurity: Magnitude and Reme- of vulnerable populations. Policy options have been dies." Vvorld Developntentt vol. 6 (1978 I:797-811. World Bank identified in the areas of buffer stocks, trade, and Reprint Series: Number Seventy-one: and David Bigmnan and compensatory financing arrangements. 15 In the Shlomo Reutlinger. 'Food Price and Supply Stabilization: Na- tional Buffer Stocks and Trade Policies." Amtericamn Ecotootioiic Agriculture and Rural Development Department of Review November 197')1. CPS. a recently completed project developed a method t6Uma Lele, The Design of Ri, ral Developrment. Lessons frorn for relating the caloric intake of different groups to A/rica (Baltimore and Loindon: The Johns Hopkins University income and price levels, and projecting the incidence Press, 1975. 3rd printing, with new postscript, 1979). t O > i i,2\~ - The Policy Planning and Program Review Department priate technology exists than is actually adopted in is managing a study of rural development in the many circumstances; why this is so is the first question People's Republic of China, seeking to draw lessons to be addressed. for Bank staff and for development experts facing similar problems in other countries. Existing documen- Tratisportation tation will be used to review trends in agricultural production and rural welfare, and to study organiza- The largest research project of the Transportation, tional aspects of China's rural development strategy. Water, and Telecommunications Department, on the "Substitution of Labor and Equipment in Civil Engi- Industri' neering," dates from the beginning of this decade and has received support from a large number of govern- Economic research on industry is done mostly by the ments. A handbook being prepared on Planning and Economics of Industrv Division in the Development Management fbr Labor-Based Civil Construction Pro- Economics Department. Much of the support that this granms will offer guidelines for planning, evaluating, and division gives to the Bank's operations has grown out monitoring labor-based civil construction programs of its research on issues of industrial strategy, particu- in developing countries. larly with respect to trade policy. A series of empirical studies has involved cross-country comparisons, start- Another large project concerned with the construction ing with Patterns of De}velopment 17 and leading on to of highways is designing a new methodology for analyz- two projects on the sources of industrial growth and ing the economic benefits and costs of alternative change. In the two "Sources" projects, input-output standards of highway design and maintenance. A techniques are used to probe the causes of observed highly innovative project planning model, constructed patterns, evaluating and comparing incentive struc- in the early stages of the research and still being ex- tures and industrialization strategies. The second tended. has so far been applied in 17 developing "Sources" project is using a general equilibrium model- countries. 19 Its use has had especially significant effects ing framework, in which prices are endogenous, to on decisions about maintenance and the choice of integrate the analysis of sources of growth from the pavement. It permits the very large benefits realized by point of view of factor supplies with the consideration road users from good standards of maintenance to be of trade and incentive policies, and to allow the in- quantified, and this has encouraged authorities in sev- dustrialization processes in different countries to be eral countries, notably Bolivia, Brazil, and Kenya, to compared within a consistent framework. This aspect increase their financial allocations for maintenance. of the research builds upon the researchers' experience Applications of the model have also shown that stra- in developing the general equilibrium models for the tegies designed to economize. by commencing with Republic of Korea and Turkey already mentioned. 18 pavements of low strength which are to be gradually Further cross-country work should be facilitated by the upgraded, may appear misguided when the analysis results of a project managed by the Economic Analysis takes account of the costs of maintaining and and Projections Department: this has the object of strengthening the pavement and the costs to users. developing a reliable, internationally comparable data base on industrial development, consistent with other Well before the formal research program was inaugu- systems of statistics, particularly those on trade. rated, a study was undertaken of pricing and invest- ment policies for roads. The book 20 that resulted has The long-standing research project on the planning of been followed by several studies that apply principles industrial investment programs in large-scale process industries has already been mentioned. Another large body of work concerns issues of technological choice. In the mechanical engineering industries, where eco- nomies of scale are apt to be as important as in the 17Hollis B. Chenery and Moises Syrquin, Patterns of Development, process industries, choices among alternative produc- 1950-1970) (London: Oxford University Press, 1975). tion technologies pose difficult analytical problems. 18Irma Adelman and Sherman Robinson, 1978, op. cit. See also Kemal Dervis and Sherman Robinson, "A General Equilibrium Research in the Economics of Industry Division on the Analysis of the Causes of a Foreign Exchange Crisis," Journal scope for capital-labor substitution in these industries of Political Economy (forthcoming). is developing analytical methods for addressing tech- 19Clell G. Harral, Thawat Watanatada, and Per Fossberg, "The nology choices, and assessing the prospects for increas- Highway Design and Maintenance Standards Model." Paper ing employment through the use of labor-intensive presented at the Second International Conference on Low ing mplymet trouh te us oflabr-iteniveVolume Roads, Ames (Iowa), August 1979. techniques. Growing out of this work is a more general 90A. A. Walters, The Economics of Road User Charges, World project on appropriate industrial technology. Of par- Bank Staff Occasional Papers, Number 5 (Baltimore and London: ticular concern is the apparent fact that more appro- The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1968: 3rd printing, 1978). of marginal cost pricing in various sectors, notably directed at urban data needs and availability, at housing ports. 21 needs and policies. 24 and at issues of urban public finance and administration. Other studies have been Public Utilities investigating ways of financing public services to poor households in growing urban areas: for example, Research in this field has mostly been carried out by through self-financing or land taxation. the Central Projects Staff. The main thrust of the earlier work dealt with the application of marginal cost pricing The Bank has made its largest contribution to urban and systems analysis to investment planning; the development through serviced sites and squatter area research on electricity pricing has already been referred upgrading projects, in which poor residents construct to. One purpose of this early work was to review current and upgrade their housing. and has done a considerable theory and practice and, thereby, lay the groundwork amount of research on the effects of such projects. for devising appropriate tariff structures in developing One such research effort, financed outside the regular countries, taking account of administrative convenience research budget and with roughly half its funds supplied and social acceptability. 22 Since the ultimate objective by the International Development Research Centre in was to have the new principles adopted by utilities in Ottawa (Canada) is a five-year project to develop a developing countries, an important part of the research monitoring and evaluation methodology for urban consisted of country case studies. projects. In most developing countries, a large proportion of the After a review of urban economic and planning poor live in rural areas, where villages or even houses models, 25 the Development Economics Department are scattered and requirements, at least for electricity, is also engaged in a study of the interactions between are small in scale. Research has, therefore, been con- economic sectors in urban areas, the so-called "City cerned with questions of cost effectiveness, financing. Study." Previously documented attempts to model and the principles upon which to assess and justify urban development in developing countries as an aid priorities. to policy making and investment decisions have rarely paid adequate attention to the behavior of urban resi- Research on village electrification was started when dents and have not been conspicuously successful. This the World Bank began to lend in this area, and has study. the Bank's first venture in the area, confines had a wide impact. A study, completed in 1975. itself to one city. Bogota (Colombia), using a common developed a methodology that is now used in the Bank's data base for all the sectors. appraisal of all power projects with rural electrification components. 23 This work, together with that on Educatio pricing, led to the development of pricing strategies in which a "lifeline" tariff, plus higher charges for Research on education is conducted mainly by the larger volumes of consumption, yield financial surpluses Education Department of CPS and the Development that are used to extend supplies to people currently Economics Department, in some cases jointly: one without service; such an approach has become a corner- project has been initiated by the Europe, Middle stone of the Bank's policy toward the provision of East, and North Africa Regional Office. The amount basic services to the poor. Research now being done of research on education has expanded rapidly in the in the Energy Department on standards of rural elec- last few years. trification is consolidating and extending the applica- bility of the earlier work. Another large body of research has dealt with the 21Esra Bennathan and A. A. Walters, Port Pricing and Investmient development of affordable and broadly applicable Polic for Developing Countries (New York: Oxford Unisersity standards and technologies for distributing services Press, 1979). widely in developing countries. One of the projects, 22See, for example. Robert J. Saunders and Jeremy J. Warford, on appropriate technology for water and sanitation, is Village WVater Supply: Econootics and Policy ini the Developing dResearch in this issue of World IBaltimore and London: The Johns Hopkins University noted under "Completed Reerh nti su fPress, 1976). Research Newts. 235See World Bank, Rural Electrification lWashington. D.C.. 1975). 240rville F. Grimes, Jr., HousitigforLow-Income Urban Families. U,-batlization Economics and Policy in the Dereloping WRorld (Baltimore and London: The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1976). Concern in the World Bank with urban development 25 Rakesh Mohan, Urban Economic and Plannrling Models: Asses- sing the Potential for Cities in the Developing Countries, World and its problems (as distinct from projects in cities) Bank Staff Occasional Papers, Number 25 (Baltimore and is of relatively recent origin. Initial research was London: The Johns Hopkins University Press, 19791. - -, - -1 I . S I(Ei lRU il NEY\S J ___ _JANUARY 19811 Research on methods of evaluating the success of Research on the urban labor market in Malaysia has investment projects in education was carried out for been completed, 28 and studies of urban labor markets the Bank by the International Institute for Educa- in Latin America (Colombia and Peru) are in progress. tional Planning, Paris. The results have had a pervasive influence on the objectives and design of education The greatest proportion of nonagricultural employ- projects supported by the Bank. ment in developing countries is in small-scale enter- prises. A project closely related to the labor market To extend education to the majority of the population studies is exploring the structure, role, and employ- in poor countries, using traditional methods, presents ment potential of small firms in the industrial sector, a crushing fiscal burden. Several projects have explored and their responses to government policies (see "Small- the cost effectiveness of education and, particularly, Scale Enterprise Development" in the section, "New how student achievement is influenced by different Research," in this issue). educational 'inputs" such as teacher training, text- books, or educational radio in remote areas. 26Another To complement these micro-level studies, a program project, managed by the Development Economics of work recently started seeks to analyze trends in the Department, is examining how the productivity and level and structure of wages and employment at the fertility of farm families are influenced by education sectoral level, with emphasis on comparing experience and extension services. across countries. Initially, this research has two prin- cipal components: assessment of existing data on Two projects explore aspects of the relationship sectoral trends in employment, unemployment, real between education and the labor market. One on the wages and labor incomes, and detailed country studies occupational structure of industries, managed by the analyzing how wages and employment change in the Education Department, is designed to help educational course of development. The latter studies are designed planners who need forecasts of the future requirements to be closely connected with the support that the for different types of skills. The other, on the labor Development Economics Department provides to market consequences of educational expansion, operational staff on employment aspects of country managed by the Development Economics Department, economic work. traces relationships between wages and the supply of workers at various levels of education. The results Population, Health, and Nutrition should increase understanding of how educational expansion affects the distribution of labor incomes, Up to now, the Development Economics Department and how it influences the returns to investment in has been responsible for much of the Bank's research education. on population questions. A significant part of its work has consisted of country studies on population; it has Employment and Labor Markets also reviewed the state of the art in various aspects of population, 29 and provides the projections of Much of the stimulus for research on employment and population presented in the Bank's World Develop- labor markets within the Bank arose from concerns ment Reports. with rural and urban poverty in developing countries, and the recognition that the extent to which the poor participate in the benefits of economic development 26Hilary Perraton, ed., Alternative Routes to Formal Education: depends on how growth affects workers' earnings and Distance Teaching for School Equivalency (Baltimore and employment opportunities. London: The Johns Hopkins University Press, forthcoming). 27Howard N. Barnum and Lyn Squire, A Model of an Agricultural Employment research has examined how rural house- Household: Theory and Evidence, World Bank Staff Occasional Papers, Number 27 < Baltimore and London: The Johns Hopkins holds behave, as users and sellers of labor, the better University Press, 1980). See also under the section, "New to analyze the direct and indirect effects of rural devel- Books," in this issue. opment projects on employment and incomes. This 28Dipak Mazumdar, The Urban Labor Market and Income Dis- research, managed by the Development Economics tribution in Peninsular Malaysia (New York: Oxford University Depatmet, as nitate usig dta romtheearierPress, forthcoming). Department, was initiated using data from the earlier 29See. for example, Timothy King and others, Population Policies mentioned Bank-assisted project in the Muda River and Economic Development (Baltimore and London: The Johns Valley in Malaysia, 27 and has been extended to the Hopkins University Press, 1974): Roberto Cuca and Catherine Republic of Korea and Nigeria. S. Pierce, Experiments in Family Planning: Lessons from the Developing World (Baltimore and London: The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1978); and Susan Hill Cochrane, Fertility and Several studies have addressed themselves to the prob- Education: What Do We Really Know?, World Bank Staff Oc- lems of the poor in urban labor markets, with particu- casional Papers, Number 26 (Baltimore and London: The Johns lar emphasis on migration and the informal sector. Hopkins University Press, 1979). \ ( KRI ) .1 \ 1Ih- A growing body of work has been examining the de- Lastly, a project is examing whether the rate and terminants of fertility, using different approaches. composition of savings and investment are affected by One project is studying the influences on fertility in imperfections in capital markets. In the process, the Sri Lanka and Kerala (South India), whose rapid de- researchers are developing a framework for analyzing clines in fertility are almost unique among low-income the effects of policies designed to remove such imper- areas and have been achieved without vast expendi- fections, particularly those that limit the flow of tures on family planning services. In another study, resources to small enterprises in agriculture, trade. data from the 1975 Botswana Rural Income Distribu- and industry. tion Survey are being analyzed to explain the contri- butions of different household members to household 30Shlomo Reutlinger and Marcelo Selowsky, Malnutrition and income. The results should enhance understanding of Povertv. Magnitude and Policyj Options. World Bank Staff Oc- the costs and benefits to households of having chil- casional Papers, Number 23 (Baltimore and London: The Johns dren and, therefore, of the factors at work in decisions Hopkins University Press, 1976: 2nd printing, 1978). about fertility. A project in Egypt is using a unique set 'tUJacob Meerman, Public Expenditure in Mlalaysia. Who Beriefits -and Wht',? (New York: Oxford University Press. 19791i: and of household survey data that contains information on Marcelo Selowsky, Who Benefits from Governmtent Expendi- economic variables and on the attitudes of husbands ture'A Case Study of Colombia (New York: Oxford University as well as wives toward family size and contraception. Press, 1979). See also under the section, New Books,' in this issue. In another project. household data collected in 32See Vinayak V. Bhatt, "Decisionmaking in the Public Sector- Narangwal (Punjab). India, over a period of years, are Case Study of Swaraj Tractor," Econontic and Political Weeklr, being used to analyze the effectiveness of the health, Bombay, vol. 13, no. 21 (May 27. 1978):20-45, World Bank nutrition, and family planning services provided to Reprint Series: Number Ninety-six. different groups of villages. Nutrition and health studies have originated in several different parts of the Bank. Some of the nutrition work undertaken by the Central Projects Staff has already been touched on, under "Agriculture and Rural Devel- opment"; other early research led to the preparation COMPLETED RESEARCH of Malnutrition and Povertv: Magnitude and Policy Options. a study which has been widely discussed in the development community. 30 A series of studies of the effects of health and nutrition on workers' productivity The Role of Feeder Roads in Rural has been sponsored by the Transportation, Water, and Development Telecommunications Department as a result of its larger research project on capital-labor substitution. Ref: Nos. 670-29, 670-71, 671-14 Public Finance and Capital Mat-kets Beginning in 1973, the World Bank undertook a series of research projects, "Yemen Arab Republic Feeder Research in these areas is done by the Development Road Study' (Ref. No. 670-29). 'Ethiopia Feeder Road Economics Department. One field of work concerns Study" (Ref. No. 670-71), and "'Madagascar Feeder financing for small enterprises: three projects have Road Study" (Ref. No. 671-14), to develop improved focused on the formal financial sector, and one has methodological tools for evaluating rural development analyzed the role of informal credit markets. The projects that include feeder roads. The research has common purpose of these studies is to identify the real also yielded some broader insights into the effects of costs-that is, taking account of administrative costs public investment in rural communities. Papers describ- and the risks of default -of lending to small enterprises, ing the results are available from the Transportation, and financial innovations that could reduce these costs. Water, and Telecommunications Department. Of a group of Bank contributions to the literature on As originally designed, all three projects were to the fiscal aspects of public services, two studies based compare the results of socioeconomic surveys under- on specifically designed sample surveys have examined taken before, during, and after the construction of a the distributional effects of government expenditure. 31 rural farm-to-market road. The projects in Yemen Arab A pilot study on government-owned and government- Republic and Ethiopia were not completed as planned, managed enterprises is tracing how their performance but the "baseline" surveys for both projects and the is affected by their organizational and managerial 'during construction" survey for the Yemen Arab structures and by the policy environment. 32 Republic project yielded detailed information on agricultural production and marketing, and other Phase I of the project, a review of the state of the topics, including tenure systems, housing conditions, art of designing power distribution systems. suggested and literacy. The now completed Madagascar study that the design of distribution systems could often have analyzed how living habits and standards changed fol- been made much more cost effective had initial loads lowing the construction of the road, documenting and their rates of growth been forecast more accurately. alterations in the income and expenditure patterns of A case study of the distribution expansion programs different occupational groups and changes in the availa- of Guadalajara and Monterrey (Mexico) showed that bility and use of services. It also examined the impli- overall costs could not be reduced markedly by lower- cations of different methods of evaluating the economic ing standards of supply, but not enough data were benefits of road projects. available to analyze the relationship between system design costs and outage costs in detail. Reports Eth2iopia The second phase has developed a methodology to --itchell, B ., and Gill, G. "A Baseline Socioeconomic Survey estimate the costs of electric power failures (or of the Agaro-Chira Road Influence Area." World Bank: outages) to varous categories of consumers, to compare Transportation. Water, and Telecommunications the costs of these failures to the costs of expanding the Department, April 1978 (mimeol. power system. and thus determine an optimal invest- Mladagascar ment plan and reliability level. The methodology was Mitchell. B., and Rakotonirina. X. "The Impact of the applied in planning the distribution system for the city Andapa-Sambava Road: A Socioeconomic Study of the of Cascavel (Brazil), in collaboration with Companhia Andapa Basin, Madagascar." World Bank: Transporta- Paranaense de Energia Eletrica (COPEL), the local tion, Water, and Telecommunications Department, and utility company: it is judged to have yielded substantial Government of Madagascar: General Directorate of savings and to be viable for all types of urban communi- Planning, December 1977. (Also available in French.) ties. The experience shows that if different types of Yemens Ar'ab Replublic consumers are located in distinct geographical areas Mitchell, B. 'Summarv Report: Taiz-Turba and Wadi Mawr -for example, an industrial zone or low-income resi- Baseline Socioeconomic Survey Findings." World Bank: dential area-different design standards should be used Transportation, Water. and Telecommunications Depart- for each type. In keeping with the Bank's philosophy ment, May 1978 (mimeo). that tariffs should reflect the costs of supply. this implies Mitchell. B.. and Escher, H. "A Baseline Socioeconomic that certain industrial consumers particularly vulner- Survey of the Taiz-Turba Road Influence Area." World able to power failures should receive highly reliable Bank: Transportation. Water, and Telecommunications service at a relatively high tariff, while low-income Department. May 1978 (mimeo). residential consumers should pay lower tariffs in return . "A 'During Construction' Survey of the Taiz- for a more basic service. The methodology can easily Turba Road Influence Area." World Bank: Transporta- be extended to the planning of generation and trans- tion, Water. and Telecommunications Department, May 1978 imimeo). mission, as well as distrbution, systems and Is relevant Mitchell. B.: Escher, H.: and Mundy. M. "A Baseline Socio- for the power industry in developed as well as devel- economic Survey of the Wadi Mawr Region." World Bank: oping countries. Transportation. Water, and Telecommunications Depart- ment. May 1978 tmimeo). The results of the study were presented at a seminar in the Bank. Several papers derived from it were pre- sented at meetings of the Power Engineering Society Standards of Reliability of Urban of the Institute of Electrical'and Electronic Engineers Electricity Supply (IEEE) during Summer 1978 and Winter 1979, and at meetings of the Operations Research Society of Amer- Ret: No. 670-67 ica, November 1978 and April-May 1979. This five-vear project, managed by the World Bank's Reports Energy Department, was designed to develop appro- '-Munasinghe, Mohan. "The Costs Incurred by Residential priate standards for the reliability of urban electric Consumers Due to Power Failures." Journal of Consumer power supply in developing countries. Previously, Research (March 1980) (forthcoming). project planners typically established these criteria 'Economic Criteria for Optimizing Power using rules of thumb based on past practice, but the System Reliability Levels." Bell Journal of Economics 10 size of the electric power sector in countries where (Spring 1979). capital and foreign exchange are scarce made it urgent and . The Economics a/fPower Svstem Reliabilitv capital Planning. Baltimore and London: The Johns to develop reliability standards based on economic Hopkins University Press, 1980. criteria. " The Leisure Cost of Electric Power Failures." Early in the project a comprehensive bibliography, World Bank Staff Working Paper No. 285. June 1978. "Low-Cost Technology Options for Sanitation: A State "A New Approach to Power System Planning." of the Art Review and Annotated Bibliography," was IEEE Transactions on Power Apparatus and Systems prepared by the International Development Research (March/'April 1980) (forthcoming). Centre, Ottawa (Canada). The Ross Institute of Trop- Munasinghe. Mohan, and Gellerson. Mark. "Optimum Eco- ical Medicine, London (United Kingdom), also took part nomic Power Supply Reliability." World Bank Staff in the project. preparing a comprehensive reference Working Paper No. 311. January 1979.adDisease: Health Aspects of Munasinghe, Mohan: Gellerson, Mark; and Scott, Walter. workna a te d Disase:eatt pectshef "The Economic Costs of Electric Power Outages and the Ercreta and Waste ater Maiageinent to be published Optimum Level of Reliability." Public Utility Reports by The Johns Hopkins University Press. The classifica- Nos. 16-19. World Bank: Central Projects Staff, tion of excreta-related diseases in this manual should October 1978. make it possible for project engineers to translate the Munasinghe, Mohan, and Scott, Walter. "Long-Range Distribu- results of a community health profile into the design tion System Planning Based on Optimum Reliability of sanitation measures which can break the transmission Levels." Paper No. 78576-1. Proceedings of the IEEE processes of locally important diseases. The other Power Engineering SocietY Summer Meeting. Los major reports of the study, App ropriate Sanitation Angeles (California), August 1978. Alternatives: A Tec'htiical anld Economlic Appm'raisal and Appropriate Technology for Water Appropriate Sanitatiotn Alte'nativ'es: A Field Malnual. are also to be published by The Johns Hopkins Univer- Supply and Waste Disposal sity Press. Ref No. 671-46 Because the research had such immediate relevance to operational work, vigorous efforts were made to dis- Improvements in water supply and sanitation are seminate the results as they became available. The fundamental to any strategy to raise the living standards design of the project emphasized the participation of of poor households. On current estimates, it would cost nationals of developing countries: each of the main at least US$60.000 million to provide safe water for case studies relied heavily on local engineers. econo- everyone in the developing world, and another mists, or behavioral scientists for the collection and USS200,000 million to provide conventional sewerage analysis of data. This facilitated the early transfer of facilities. Low-cost methods of providing adequate knowledge and techniques. The project results have services are urgently needed. been presented at numerous seminars for World Bank staff and also at conferences of professional asso- The World Bank undertook this two-year research ciations, so as to reach the international consulting project with the broad objective of improving its ability profession. whose members are still responsible for the to direct the benefits of its water supply and sanitation design of most externally financed water and sanitation loans to the poor. The project studied the technical projects in developing countries. Efforts to reach and economic feasibility of options for water supply practitioners in developing countries directly have and waste disposal. and analyzed the economic, en- included a four-dav workshop in the Arab Republic of vironmental, and sociological effects of various tech- Egypt for top officials of national and state health nologies for conserving water and disposing of and ministries; participation by Bank staff in the Govern- reclaiming wastes. It also reviewed the scope for im- ment of India. World Health Organization Workshop proving existing intermediate technologies, to make on the International Drinking Water Supply and Sanita- them more acceptable to consumers and more easily tion Decade; a seminar for the Philippines Local Water transferable. Field investigations were made in 14 Utilities Administration Staff: and a one-day workshop countries. following the Symposium on Engineering. Science and Medicine in the Prevention of Tropical Water-related In evaluating technologies, emphasis was given to the Disease held in London. which attracted a wide range ability and willingness of consumers to pay for the of participants from developing countries. system. real or perceived improvements in health and living conditions, and any obstacles to adaptation for Governments and the development community appear use in other communities. The project found that eight to have reacted very favorably to the results of the distinct technologies could be recommended, under research. Follow-up work is now in progress, wherebv specified conditions, for developing countries. Im- a core team of sanitarv engineers, health specialists, proved designs have been prepared for several of these and behavioral scientists is helping to develop low-cost technologies, and prototype "sanitation sequences" water and sanitation programs in 12 countries, with developed. according to which a community begins funding from the United Nations Development Pro- with a low-cost system and upgrades it as its income gramme (UNDP). Various other agencies, including the levels and service demands increase. World Bank, Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA), US Agency for International Devel- Julius, D. S. "An Economic Appraisal of Sanitation Alterna- opment (AID), UK Overseas Development Adminis- tives." Paper presented at the Conference on Engineer- tration (ODA), World Health Organization (WHO), and ing, Science and Medicine in the Prevention of Tropical UNICEF. are contributing to the implementation of Water-related Disease. London (United Kingdom), De- demonstration projects and sanitation programs. cember 1978. Published in Progress in Water Technology. Several of the consultants who participated in the vol. 11, no. 1. research are now involved in these projects. . "Urban Waste as an Economic Good." Paper presented at the Oxfam Conference. July 1977. Published in Sanitation in Developing Count-ies. Edited by Arnold Funds were approved in October 1979 for further Pacey. Chichester (United Kingdom): John Wiley & Sons, efforts to disseminate the results of the research. The 1978. following materials are to be prepared: ~-salbermatten John M. "'New Prospects for Urban Excreta Disposal in Developing Countries.' Paper presented at the * Lecture notes and case studies on available water Conference on Engineering, Science and Medicine in the supply and sanitation technologies, their effects on Prevention of Tropical Water-related Disease. London, health, and their costs, and master plans for sanitation December 1978. development, for use by finance and health ministries . "Sanitation-A New Look at Ancient Solu- in developing countries. tions." Paper presented at the Conference of the Water * Lecture notes and case studies for use in workshops Pollution Control Federation, Houston (Texas), October on project design using appropriate technologies. 1979. for engineers and others responsible for project Kalbermatten, John M., and others. Appropriate Sanitation design and implementation. Alternatives: A Field Manual. Baltimore and London: * Syllabi for courses in technical institutes and The Johns Hopkins University Press (forthcoming). unierstie. Appropriate Sanitation Alter-natives: A Techi- universities. nical and Econoic Appraisal. Baltimore and London: * Training materials and visual aids to train com- The Johns Hopkins University Press (forthcoming . munity workers, who would use the same materials Kalbermatten, John M., and Julius, D. S. 'Intermediate Service to help communities choose, construct, operate, and Levels in Sanitation Systems." American Society of Civil maintain water supply and sanitation facilities. Engineers Preprint 3453. October 1978. Kalbermatten, John M.: Julius, D. S.: and Gunnerson, C. G. Reports "Appropriate Sanitation Alternatives: A Technical and Elmendorf, M.. and Buckles. P. K. "Socio-Cultural Aspects Economic Appraisal-Summary Report." Public Utility of Water Supply and Excreta Disposal." Public Utility Report No. RES 20. World Bank: Transportation. Water, Report No. RES 15. World Bank: Transportation, Water, and Telecommunications Department, February 1979. and Telecommunications Department. September 1978. Kuhlthau, R. H. "Country Studies in Appropriate Sanitation Elmendorf, M., Buckles, P. K., et al. "Eight Case Studies of Alternatives." Public Utility Report No. RES 21. World Rural and Urban Fringe Areas in Latin America." Public Bank: Transportation, Water, and Telecommunications Utility Report No. RES 23. World Bank: Transportation, Department, March 1979. Water, and Telecommunications Department, May 1979. Rybczynski, W.: Polprasert, C.; and McGarry, M. G. "Low- Feachem, Richard, and others. Sanitation and Disease: Health Cost Technology Options for Sanitation: A State-of-the- A.spects of Excreta and Waste water Management. Art Review and Annotated Bibliography." Ottawa Baltimore and London: The Johns Hopkins University (Canada): International Development Research Centre. Press, 1980. 1978. Feachem, R. G.: Mara, D. D.: and Iwugo, K. 0. "Alternative Shuval. H. I.: Gunnerson, C. G.: and Julius, D. S. 'Nightsoil Sanitation Technologies for Urban Areas in Africa." Composting." Public Utility Report No. RES 12a. World Public Utility Report No. RES 22. World Bank: Trans- Bank: Transportation. Water, and Telecommunications portation, Water, and Telecommunications Department, Department, July 1978. February 1979. White, A. U., and White, G. F. "Behavioral Factors in Selec- Gunnerson. C. G.: Julius, D. S.: and Kalbermatten, John M. tion of Technologies." American Society of Civil Engi- "Alternative Approaches to Sanitation Technology.' neers Preprint 3453. October 1978. Paper presented at the International Association for Water Pollution Research, Stockholm (Sweden), June 1978. Pricing and Investment in Gunnerson. C. G.. and Kalbermatten, John M. "Appropriate Telecommunications Technology for Sanitation Systems." Paper presented at the National Conference on Environmental Engineering Ret No. 670-76 of the American Society of Civil Engineers, San Francisco California), July 1979. . "Urban Sanitation Planning in Developing Economic analysis has played only a minor role in Countries." Paper presented at the International Confer- traditional pricing and investment policy in telecom- ence on Water in Urban Ecology, Amsterdam (Nether- munications. This research was designed to provide a lands), August 1979. framework for determining appropriate levels of invest- I 1)i1 ,NF,, ment in telecommunications projects in developing NEW RESEARCH countries, and weighing competing demands within the sector. Since minimum estimates of the economic benefits of telecommunications investment within and between larger urban areas can generally be estab- Small-Scale Enterprise Development lished using financial criteria, and since many tele- communications authorities in developing countries Ref' No. 671-59 now have to judge the merits of extending service to sparsely populated and less profitable areas, the project Over three-fourths of the employment outside agricul- initially concentrated on rural telecommunications. ture in developing countries is in small enterprises in It investigated the characteristics of beneficiaries of manufacturing, commerce. and services. These enter- telecommunications projects, the economic costs and prises have typically received very little attention in the benefits of such projects, and appropriate pricing design of sectoral development policies. Part of the strategies. The project included a case study of the reason is a lack of information on how they function economics of telephone use in rural areas of Costa and on the role they play in production and providing Rica. using surveys largely executed by the University employment. of Costa Rica and the Instituto Costarricense de Electricidad. This research project is the only one on small-scale enterprises so far undertaken by the World Bank. Work Since the project was started, the scope of the investi- on it began early in 1978; supplementary funds have gation has been broadened substantially. The final recently been approved. The project is analyzing the report on the project, now in preparation by the Trans- characteristics of these enterprises in several countries, portation, Water, and Telecommunications Depart- to define ways in which the information base can be ment, will present a broad-ranging review of pricing improved and to develop a methodology for assessing policy and the role of economic analysis in the tele- the effects on incomes and employment of alternative communications sector of developing countries. policies toward small-enterprise development. Reports Case studies are being undertaken in the Republic of -Sa"ders, R. J. "Evaluation of Telephone Projects in Less China (Taiwan), Colombia, India, Japan. the Republic Developed Countries." Public Utility Report No. 37. of Korea, Nigeria, and the Philippines, tracing the World Bank: Central Projects Staff, July 1978. Published effects of policies on the development of enterprises in Telecommunications Journal (January 1979). effe t sizes on the ant of enterprises . "Financing of Telecommunication Expansion.' of different sizes. In Colombia and India, enterprises Public Utility Report No. 47. World Bank: Central of different sizes within narrowly defined industries Projects Staff, September 1979. Published in Third have been surveyed in detail. The results are yielding World Telecommunications Forum Part 1. Geneva: information on the history of the enterprises: entre- International Telecommunications Union, September preneurs' choices of labor and capital combinations. 1979. and how thev modernize their operations; their behavior "Rural Telecommunications: Economic and toward the markets they deal in: their relationships Policy Implications." Proceedings of Seminar on Rural with institutions and with other firms; and their levels Telecommunications. New Delhi (India), September of efficiency. 11-22. 1978 (Vol. I). Geneva: International Telecom- munications Union. 1978. Many small enterprises exist as inefficient bv-products Saunders, R. J., and Dickenson, C. R. "Telecommunications: o p Priority Needs for Economic Development." Public of policies that depress the demand for labor m agn- Utility Report No. 45A. World Bank: Central Projects culture and in the growing modern industrial and com- Staff, June 1979. Published in Telecommunications mercial sectors. Interim results from the research Journal (September 1979). suggest that the activities of small enterprises, and the Saunders. R. J.: Munasinghe. M.: and Warford, J. J. 'The incomes of those employed in them, depend far more Cost Structure of Telecommunications Services and on sectoral development policies at large than on Pricing Policy in Developing Countries." Communications measures designed specifically to assist small enter- 78, Communications Equipment and Svstems, Conference prises, such as the technical assistance and credit that Publication No. 162. London: The Institute of Electrical are now standard in many small-enterprise development Engineers. 1978. projects Saunders, R. J., and Warford, J. J. "Telecommunications Pricing and Investment in Developing Countries." Public Institutions collaborating in the research are the Utility Report No. 30. World Bank: Central Projects Staff, June 1977. Published in Telecommunications and Ministry of Industry, Government of the Philippines; Economic Development, Proceedings of the International the Sri Ram Centre for Industrial Research, New Delhi. Telecommunications Exposition 1977 (INTELCOM 77 , and the Giri Institute, Lucknow (India): and the Corpo- Vol. 1. Horizon House International, October 1977. raci6n Financiera Popular (Colombia). The principal - .- ----- - ORIA 13t xK \ -1 RL4I! XR( ll _____ JANUALRY 1980 researchers are Dennis Anderson, Mariluz Cortes. and the Transportation. Water, and Telecommunications Dipak Mazumdar in the Development Economics Department. Department. Reports The Determinants of Railway Traffic, Studies from Phase I are ohtainable from the Transportation, Water. and Telecommunications Department: Freight Transport, and the Choice of Tahorga, P.N. "The Economic Role of Railways: Determinants Transport Modes of Railway Traffic.' June 1979 (mimeo). . Working Papers Nos. 1-8 (mimeo): "Evolution Ref: No. 672-07 of Domestic Freight Transportation" for France, *. Korea, Spain. the United Kingdom, and Yugoslavia: "Transport Policy and Railwav Services: the European Each year, the World Bank lends several hundred Experience": "The Bank's Experience with Railway million dollars in support of railway projects costing Projects"; "Forecasting Total Railway Traffic: Applica- a billion dollars or more. An in-house review of rail- tion to Past Bank Projects." ways supported by the Bank revealed some causes for concern in three broad areas: volumes and types of Real Incomes and Economic Welfare of traffic; operating efficiency: and finances. The last two Selected Socioeconomic Groups in raise institutional questions which are being investigated Colombia, 1964-78 in the course of the Bank's operational work. lnplanningrailwavinvestmentsindevelopingcountries, During the past 15 years, Colombia's real output per demand for railway traffic has often been extremely head has grown at about four percent annually. Govern- difficult to forecast: future freight traffic has often been ment policy in the 1970s has increasingly been directed overestimated and passenger traffic underestimated, toward improving the welfare of the poor, with the sometimes with unfortunate consequences. A research introduction of a national nutrition program and related project on the "Economic Role of Railways" IRef. health programs; an integrated rural development pro- No. 671-50), recently completed, investigated determi- gram that will reach half the rural population and a nants of the pace and pattern of shifts between differ- much higher proportion of the rural poor: and the ent modes of transport. Its findings are described in the extension of health, education, and public utilities to papers listed at the end of this note; they suggest that more low-income areas. Funds have recently been the share of railwavs in total freight transport has been approved for Fedesarrollo. the Colombian research declining (despite some increases in absolute volumes); institute, to conduct a research project for the Latin that railways are increasingly becoming specialized America and the Caribbean Regional Office and the carriers used for relatively large shipments over long Development Economics Department of the World distances: and that the share of railways has been de- Bank. The results should enable projects and programs clining irrespective of the relative prices of different to be targeted more effectively toward the poorest transport modes. But though this research yielded groups in Colombia. as well as helping to further the hypotheses about shippers' choice of modes, and the Bank's economic work in the country. factors governing this choice. the data available did not permit these to be rigorously formulated and tested. The study w ill measure the extent to which different socioeconomic groups among the poorest in Colombia A further phase of research, approved in October 1979. have benefited from growth over the past fifteen years, will use information collected by the Netherlands and assess the results of the principal antipoverty Institute of Transport for a study of freight traffic in programs and policies, particularly as they have affected the European Economic Communities and Spain, since the poor in rural areas. The study will also examine data at the necessary level of detail are not currently how far poverty is a temporary phase in the life cycle available for developing countries. Detailed analysis of a large number of families, as opposed to the life- of this data base should sharpen understanding of the long fate of a "hard core" of families, and will analyze comparative advantage of railways as against other the relationship between unemployment and poverty. modes in different circumstances and of the factors The relationship between the efficiency of the labor governing shippers' choice of transport modes, for market and improvements in welfare will be specified specified groups of commodities. It is expected to yield and reviewed. rigorously formulated hypotheses that can then be The project will extend the Bank's research already tested in studies of individual developing countries. started on "Urban Labor Markets in Latin America" (Ref. No. 671-48) and on "Wage and Employment Most of this work will be undertaken in the Netherlands Trends and Structures in Developing Countries" (Ref. Institute of Transport. Those responsible in the World No. 671-84). Bank staff responsible are George R. Bank are Pedro N. Taborga and M.S. Nanjundiah in Gebhart, Frederick Z. Jaspersen. and Richard C. Webb. >.-i \s ( Wl isI 13A N h NEW AND FORTHCOMING Economic Growth and Employment PUBLICATIONS in China Thomas G. Rawski Oxford University Press, 1979. xiv + 194 pages The full range of World Bank publications is described (including maps. bibliography, index). in the Catalog of World Bank Publications, issued annually. The new books listed below, which are pub- LC 79-19550 lished by outside publishers for the World Bank, are ISBN 0-19-520151-5 $12.50 hardcover obtainable throuigh booksellers or byv uriting to the 0-19-520152-3 $ 4.95 paperback publisher The other items listed, and the Catalog, are available free of charge from This book was commissioned by the World Bank to further its understanding of urban and rural develop- Publications Unit ment. rural enterprises and nonfarm employment, and World Bank the development of small enterprises. Despite the rapid 1818 H Street, N.W. growth of the literature on these matters, few studies Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A. have attempted to map out the policies of the People's Republic of China, or, in particular, to make a quantita- tive assessment of what most observers agree to have NEW BOOKS been considerable achievements during the past two decades. Confronting Urban Malnutrition: The China's emphasis on labor-intensive methods of raising Design of Nutrition Programs agricultural output, supported by its rural industries program, and the resulting effects on the regional dis- James E. Austin persion of industry, provide valuable insights that can enrich the understanding of those concerned with World Bank Staff Occasional Papers, Number 28. The employment policy elsewhere. Johns Hopkins University Press, 1980. xii + 124 pages. The Economics of Power System LC 79-3705 Reliability and Planning ISBN 0-8018-2261-0 $5.00 paperback Urbanization, the most dramatic and fundamental force Mohan Munasinghe affecting developing countries today, is predicted to quadruple the population of Third World cities by the The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1980. xx + 314 year 2000. Presupposing a political commitment to pages. meet basic human needs in the urban setting, this study analyzes the systematic planning, design of interven- LC 79-2182 tions, program management, and community action ISBN 0-8018-2276-9 $24.00 hardcover that are necessary to translate political will into im- 0-8018-2277-7 $ 8.95 paperback proved nutrition for the urban poor. Beginning with a diagnosis of the kinds, severity, causes, and victims of nutritional deficiencies, the author identifies the three This is the first book to provide a completely inte- categories upon which nutrition planning must be based grated treatment of electric power system reliability. and examines nine strategies for nutrition intervention. The system expansion plan and reliability levels that He then delineates the critical variables of program optimize the net social benefit of electricity consump- design and makes judgments that will serve as a guide tion are determined by a balanced analysis of their side to the program planner. Methods of financial analy- effects on supply and demand. The case study indicates sis and evaluation of cost effectiveness are assessed, that application of the reliability optimization method and the managerial components crucial to effective could help realize considerable savings in the electric nutrition programs are discussed. power sector. 0 H tRl Sl XR( li NLV\\ ~ ___JANLUKARY 19811 The increasing dependence of modern economies on Growth with Equity: The Taiwan Case electricity, the capital-intensive nature of the power sector, and the increasing real unit costs of electricity John C. H. Fei, Gustav Ranis. and Shirley W. Y. Kuo. supply underline the importance of cost savings, especially for developing countries with scarce foreign Oxford University Press. 1980. xxii + 426 pages. exchange. The key element in the method is a cost- benefit model that embodies the trade-off between LC 79-23354 power system costs, on the supply side, and the costs ISBN 0-19-520115-9 $14.95 hardcover incurred by consumers because of shortages of elec- 0-19-520116-7 5 5.95 paperback tricity, on the demand side. The costs of supply relia- bility can be derived from straightforward engineering Contributing to the debate on the effects of rapid considerations. The author focuses on the outage costs economic growth on the distribution of income, this of the economic losses incurred by consumers because book analyzes how Taiwan achieved growth with equity of power failures and develops explicit models to eval- between the early 1950s and early 1970s. The underly- uate these effects, thereby remedying the incomplete ing purpose is to present a general method of analyz- treatment of the subject of the worth or benefits of ing the behavioral interactions between growth and reliability in the previous literature. equity in any developing economy. The new optimizing method is based on the Changes in the inequality of total family income are minimization of total costs to society, that is, the sum related to changes in the distribution of components of outage costs and system costs. Thus, it subsumes of that income, such as wages and property income, the traditional system-expansion approach of minimiz- and changes in the importance of the components in ing only system costs. The book also covers reliability total family income. This decomposition of income evaluation and indices, load forecasting, power system inequality permits the authors to begin to form a link planning, shadow pricing (especially in the developing between two areas of knowledge that hitherto have country context), and the relation between optimum been somewhat separate: development theory and the price and reliability levels. analysis of the size distribution of income. The principal conclusion for policy is that the most Farm Budgets-From Farm Income reliable method of minimizing conflict between growth Analysis to Agricultural Project Analysis and equity is to make better choices about the ways in which output and income are generated. Taiwan's Maxwell L. Brown achievement is attributed largely to the early attention paid to agriculture and to the spatially dispersed and World Bank Staff Occasional Papers, Number 29. labor-intensive character of its industrialization. Direct The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1980 (forth- government intervention through tax and welfare mea- coming). About 208 pages. sures is likely to be less important than is often assumed. LC 79-3704 ISBN 0-8018-2386-2 515.00 hardcover Korea: Policy Issues for Long-Term 0-8018-2387-0 $ 6.50 paperback Development Farm income analysis measures the profitability of the Parvez Hasan and D. C. Rao farm on an annual basis; agricultural project analysis characterizes the performance of a project comprising A World Bank Country Economic Report. The Johns one or more farms over its entire life. This book clarifies Hopkins University Press, 1979. xx + 538 pages the relation between simple farm-income analysis and (including map. 4 appendices. index). the broader field of agricultural project analysis. It integrates both fields and illustrates how the transition LC 78-21399 is made from one to the other. For each stage in the ISBN 0-8018-2228-9 S25.00 hardcover transition, the kinds of budgets necessary and the dif- 0-8018-2229-7 $ 9.50 paperback ferences in the methodologies used are explained clearly. This volume will give practical guidance to The present rate of economic growth and level of those responsible for planning or making investment infrastructure development of the Republic of Korea decisions in agriculture or in the wider field of rural are among the highest in the developing world; the development. country's social services, left largely to market forces Li O\ ()RLD) It _N_ - -_--_- J\N LRi(hi) RESE.I R( 11 \'EI S 17 in the private sector, have substantially raised the In this innovative study in economic analysis. a model standard of living in both rural and urban areas. Long- of short-run behavior that combines production and term development could, by 1990, secure Korea's consumption decisions in a theoretically consistent place as a fairly high-income, heavily industrialized, fashion is developed for an agricultural household. export-dependent economy with a rapidly dwindling Using a sample of households from the Muda River reliance on agriculture. Valley in Malaysia. the authors show that the integra- tion of production and consumption decisions yields For rapid growth to continue, however. Korea must substantially different policy conclusions from those resolve numerous policy issues of social and economic obtained when production and consumption are consequence-issues associated with requirements for analyzed separately. greater attention to equity, for structural changes to maintain the comparative advantage of Korean exports, Among the policy issues analyzed are output response and for the roles government is to undertake in to price changes and technological innovation, costs response to the changing domestic and external con- of migration, and the short-run benefits of family plan- ditions expected in the 1980s. Health, education, energy. ning programs. All policy analysis is conducted in a transport, and resource mobilization and allocation framework that allows for changes in labor supply and will all raise important questions. These issues, which demand-as predicted by the household model. are crucial to the economy. and various options that Changes in the wage rate as a result of policy inter- are open to government planners in Korea concerned vention are also taken into account in determining with the country's course of continuing rapid develop- market response. ment, are focal points in this in-depth report. The Planning of Investment Programs Malaysia: Growth and Equity in a Multiracial Society. Alexander Meeraus and Ardy Stoutjesdijk. editors A series which describes a systematic approach to Kevin Young. Willem Bussink, and Parvez Hasan investment planning in the public and private sectors, and its application in specific subsectors. such as the The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1980. About 352 fertilizer, forestry, steel, and cement industries. De- pages. signed to provide a useful tool for the practical planner as well as the student of development planning, the LC 79-3677 series requires no prior knowledge of either mathe- ISBN 0-8018-2384-6 S25.00 hardcover matical programming or the specific industry under 0-8018-2385-4 S 7.95 paperback consideration. This book reviews the performance of the Malaysian Volume 1: The Planning of Industrial Invest- economy since 1960, discusses current issues, and metit Progri-ams: A Methodology, assesses the outlook for the future. Special attention David A. Kendrick and Ardy Stoutjesdijk is given to the government's objectives of reducing poverty and redressing racial imbalances in the economy. The principal themes are that rapid growth The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1979. XIV + 132 is essential to achieving those objectives and that pages /icluding idex). Malaysia's favorable resource prospects are conducive LC 78-8428 to such growth. ISBN 0-8018-2139-8 $14.00 hardcover 0-8018-2152-5 $ 5.95 paperback A Model of an Agricultural This introduction to the analytical approach to invest- Household: Theory and Evidence ment planning problems places special emphasis on complications arising from economies of scale. Howard N. Barnum and Lyn Squire Although the approach is presented as a powerful aid to project identification, the authors also provide World Bank Staff Occasional Papers, Number 27. The a candid assessment of the method's limitations. Johns Hopkins University Press, 1980. 120 pages. Readers unfamiliar with mathematical programming techniques will find this volume a helpful grounding LC 78-21397 in linear and mixed-integer programming. facilitating ISBN 0-8018-2225-4 $6.95 paperback understanding of subsequent books in the series. \k )RLD It 11 \h Xfts ii i IN hI ti Volum7le 2: The Planninig of Industrial Invest- location, industry-agriculture linkages, and the inter- imeait Progratmis in the Fertilizer Industrr national environment. Armeane M. Choksi, Alexander Meeraus, and Public Expenditure in Malaysia: Who Ardy Stoutjesdijk Benefits and Why? The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1980 (forth- Jacob P. Meerman coming). About 320 pages. LC 78-8436 Oxford University Press, 1979. xx + 383 pages (includ- ISBN 0-8018-2138-X S19.50 hardcover ing map, bibliography, index). 0-8018-2153-3 5 8.95 paperback LC 79-1122 ISBN 0-19-520096-9 $25.00 hardcover This volume discusses the main products and proc- 0-19-520097-7 S 7.95 paperback esses relevant to production in the fertilizer industry and offers a systematic description of the type of The question of who benefits from public expenditure project planning problems that need to be addressed has provoked much controversy, because it is closely during identification. The authors start with a simple related to policies for reducing poverty. Previous static model to evaluate the efficiency of an existing investigations of the subject have had mixed results, industry. Then, they offer a comprehensive dynamic largely because they had to rely on statistics compiled investment planning model that can be used to draw for other purposes. This study, however, uses a specially up an investment program for the sector in its broad designed sample survey to generate data on the house- outlines, taking explicit account of international hold consumption of education, medical care, agricul- trade, domestic transportation, and alternative ture, public utilities, and welfare transfers in Peninsular sectoral supply patterns. A detailed case study reports Malaysia. The survey data are then combined with on an application of the planning methodology to independently derived data on government costs of the Egyptian fertilizer sector. providing the services. The results give an estimate of government spending on the various services for house- Policies for Industrial Progress in holds distinguished by income, region, ethnic com- Developing Countries munity. and other variables. John Cody, Helen Hughes. and David Wall. editors This book moves the analysis of the benefits from public expenditure out of the narrow framework of Oxford University Press, 1980 (forthcoming). About national income accounting, in which benefits are de- 320 pages. fined as being simply and necessarily equal to taxes. The complexity of benefit incidence is examined in LC 79-24786 terms of the locus of benefits, their duration, and their ISBN 0-19-520176-0 $16.95 hardcover valuation. The study also concentrates on the impor- 0-19-520177-9 5 5.95 paperback tance, in determining how the actual pattern of con- sumption evolves, both of having access to a govern- This book analyzes the principal policy issues that ment service, and of knowing the associated private influence the course and pace of industrialization in costs of consuming it. This is a companion volume to the developing countries. It differs from previous the book, Who Benefits from Government Expenditure? writings on the subject in its broad coverage and A Case Study of Colonmbia, by Marcelo Selowsky, presentation in a form accessible to nonspecialist listed below. readers, and complements the existing literature on planning and project evaluation. Although the book is Structural Change and Development intended primarily for policy decision makers in the Policy developing countries, it should also be of interest to academic economists and students concerned with the Hollis B. Chenery and others industrialization process. Oxford University Press, 1979. xviii + 526 pages, The text, organized along lines of governmental admin- (including references, index). istrative responsibility for various industrial policies, includes chapters on trade, finance, labor-technology LC 79-18026 relations, taxation, licensing and other direct produc- ISBN 0-19-520094-2 $14.50 hardcover tion controls, public enterprises, infrastructure and 0-19-520095-6 5 5.95 paperback .1 \\I \H] PiM8, Id' 9j xIt( z 1\ The development process involves long-term changes ning and decision making at the local, national, and in production, investment, trade, employment, and transnational levels. A central issue is how the growth income distribution. Thoughtful and far-sighted of tourism affects the social and economic welfare of the management of these structural changes is crucial for local people and how the benefits will be distributed the many poor countries that are now well into the among them. Changes in values and attitudes brought transition to becoming developed economies. Sustain- about at least in part by encounters with foreign ing growth and distributing its benefits more equitably tourists are also explored, as are the effects of tourism depend on the course of structural change in both a on arts, crafts, and cultural activities. The second part national and a global context. of the book contains case studies speaking to the issues discussed by de Kadt. The general conclusions are Structural Change and Development Policy offers relevant to policy makers and others who influence both a retrospective evaluation by the author of his decisions on tourism in developing countries. thought and writing over the past two decades and an extension of his work in Redistribution with Growth Who Benefits from Government (Oxford University Press, 1974; 3rd printing, 1979) and Expenditure? A Case Study of Colombia Patterns of Development. 1950-1970 (Oxford University Press. 1975; 2nd printing, 1977). Chapters that discuss Marcelo Selowsky the structural characteristics of individual countries or groups of countries set the stage for a systematic Oxford University Press, 1979. xv + 186 pages analysis of the internal and external aspects of struc- (including statistical appendix. references, index). tural change that affect the design of policy. Successivt chapters develop a set of techniques for analyzing LC 79-16384 structural change and apply them to some of the prin- ISBN 0-19-520098-5 $12.50 hardcover cipal problems of developing countries today. 0-19-520099-3 S 4.95 paperback Conclusions emerge from two types of analyses: Governments can improve the distribution of income generalizations about individual phenomena-such as and also can eradicate extreme poverty by changing the sources of industrialization, the effects of economies the composition and direction of public expenditure. of scale on resource allocation, and the productivity But more important than the capacity of the fiscal of external resources-and evaluations of development budget to transfer income is its use to increase the con- strategy in different kinds of countries, such as small sumption of such basic needs as housing, water, sewer- primary exporters and large semi-iridustrialized age, and health and education services. Such use would economies. permit the poorest groups in the population to enjoy higher levels of consumption at an earlier stage of Tourism -Passport to Development? development than would be the case if the private Perspectives on the Social and Cultural forces of supply andgdema gacme alowth Effects of Tourism in Developing Countries the normal course of per capita income growth. What is the present performance of developing coun- Emanuel de Kadt, editor tries in reaching the poorest income groups through public expenditure? How has this performance evolved A joint World Bank-Unesco Study. Oxford University over time? Are there constraints on the consumption Press. 1979. xviii + 360 pages (including maps, index). of basic services other than the mere availability or LC 79-18116 supply of these services? This research study addresses IN 7-190143 1these questions with the help of a case study carried ISBN 0-19-520149-3 $14.95 hardcover out in Colombia. Another case study is described in 0-19-520150-7 $ 5.95 paperback the companion volume, Public Expenditure in lMalavsia: To many developing countries, tourism has seemed Who Benelits and WhY?, by Jacob P. Meerman, above. to offer an opportunity to secure foreign exchange Yugoslavia: Self-Management Socialism and stimulate economic growth. Critics question, and the Challenges of Development however, whether tourism yields economic returns commensurate with its costs and express concern about Martin Schrenk. Cyrus Ardalan, and its possibly adverse social and cultural effects. Nawal A. El Tatawv Emanuel de Kadt, in the five introductory chapters, A World Bank Country Economic Report. The Johns addresses this concern in the context of development Hopkins University Press, 1979. xvii + 392 pages theory and policy making. He examines tourism plan- (including map. appendix. glossary, index). I - . , - . ................... - - - - - .............................. , . . . . . . . . . . . .....-...- -. .- -.-- - - -- -.........-- -. tt' kllS tC; LC 79-84316 and industrialized countries; population; demo- ISBN 0-8018-2263-7 S25.00 hardcover graphic characteristics; health and nutrition; 0-8018-2278-5 S 9.50 paperback housing and consumption; education; and employ- This book. a sequel to Yugoslavia: Development wvith ment and income. Decentralization (The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1975), delineates the principal changes in economic WORLD BANK STAFF WORKING management that took place in the 1970s and their underlying rationale. It then analyzes the implications PAPERS of the new economic system for issues the Yugoslavs regard as crucial for long-term development: employ- No. 356. The Distribution of Income in Brazil. Guy ment. stabilization, foreign trade, regional differences. Pierre Pfefferman, Latin America and the Caribbean and resource mobilization and allocation. In assessing Country Programs Department II, and Richard Webb, the Yugoslav response to these issues in the social Development Economics Department. September 1979. plan for 1976-80, the book reviews the prospects for tackling them successfully. The analysis shows that the No. 357. Estimating Shadow Prices for Colombia in an new institutional framework concurrently strengthens Input-Output Table Framework. Wolfgang W. Schohl, the control of workers over enterprise management Latin America and the Caribbean Country Programs and, by extending the principles of self-management Department II. September 1979. to the macroeconomic level, compels governments and enterprises to coordinate their economic undertakings. No. 358. Inter-Country Comparison of "Real" (PPP) Incomes: Revised Estimates and Unresolved Questions. World Tables 1980 Paul Isenman, Policy Planning and Program Review Department. September 1979. The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1980. About 600 No. 359. Price Distortions in Agriculture and Their pages.No35.PieDsotosiAgiutranThr Effects: An International Comparison. Malcolm D. Bale LC 79-3649 and Ernst Lutz, Economic Analysis and Projections ISBN 0-8018-2389-7 527.50 hardcover Department. October 1979. 0-8018-2390-0 510.95 paperback No. 360. Costs and Benefits of Agricultural Research: This volume contains one of the most complete collec- The State of the Arts. G. Edward Schuh and Helio tions of economic and social time series data for most Tollini (consultants), Agriculture and Rural Develop- countries of the world. More than 235 tables, containing ment Department. October 1979. the latest available data as of August 1979, are divided into four series. No. 361. Investment in International Agricultural Research: Some Economic Dimensions. Grant M. 1. Data for 120 countries on the principal economic Scobie (consultant), Agriculture and Rural Develop- measurements, grouped under GDP by industrial ment Department. October 1979. origin: resources and expenditures; investment financing; gross domestic income; domestic price No. 362. Identification and Appraisal of Rural Roads indexes; and foreign exchange rate. Projects. Henri L. Beenhakker. Europe, Middle East, and North Africa Projects Department, and Abderraouf 11. Data for more than 100 countries on the principal Chammari, Ministry of Works, Government of Tunisia. economic measurements, grouped under balance October 1979. of payments; external public debt; and central government finances. No. 363. Small Enterprises in African Development: A Survey. John M. Page. Jr. (consultant), Development III. Comparative derived data for 145 countries Economics Department. October 1979. grouped as developing, industrialized, and centrally planned, with average group figures, by income No. 364. Income, Consumption and Poverty in group for oil producers and by geographic region: Thailand, 1962/63 to 1975/76. Oey Astra Meesook, selected economic development indicators; foreign Development Economics Department. November 1979. trade structure; capital flows: selected economic indicators: and tables of rank order, by country. No. 365. A Survey and Critique of World Bank Supported Research on International Comparisons IV. Social indicators, grouped by income, with adjusted of Real Product. Robin Marris (consultant), Economic averages for income groups, geographic regions, Analysis and Projections Department. December 1979. IxNI \R' 1981 RIESl kR( 'I NuiN s 21 The tbl/lowing background stlcliev to the World No. 353. Trade Policy for Developing Countries. Development Report, 1979 are available in the ITWorld Donald B. Keesing. August 1979. Bank Staff Wor kinzg Paper series: No. 354. Development Problems of Mineral Exporting No. 329. The Changing International Division of Countries. Gobindram Nankani. August 1979. Labor in Manufactured Goods. Bela Balassa. May 1979. No. 355. The Global Framework. Russell J. No. 334. The "Graduation" Issue in Trade Policy Cheetham. Syamaprasad Gupta. and Antoine Schwartz. toward LDCs. Isaiah Frank. June 1979. September 1979. No. 335. Balancing Trickle Down and Basic Needs Strategies. Marcelo Selowsky. June 1979. WORLD BANK REPRINT SERIES No. 336. Labor Force, Employment and Labor Markets in the Course of Economic Development. The tollowing recent articles, arisinig firom research Lyn Squire. June 1979. undertaken at or tor the World Banik. have been reprinted with permission: No. 341. State Intervention in the Industrialization of Developing Countries: Selected Issues. Armeane Number 94. Technology and Relative Economic Choksi. July 1979. Efficiency. Howard N. Barnum and Lyn Squire. From Oxtord Economic Papers. vol. 30, no. 2 (July 1978), No. 342. Policies for Efficient and Equitable Growth pp. 181-98. of Cities in Developing Countries. Johannes F. Linn. July 1979. Number 95. Mobilizing Technology for Developing Countries. Charles Weiss. Jr. From Science. vol. 203 No. 343. The Capital Goods Sector in LDCs: A Case (March 16, 1979). pp. 1083-89. for State Intervention? Jayati Datta Mitra. July 1979. Number 96. Decisionmaking in the Public Sector. No. 344. International Technology Transfer: Issues V.V. Bhatt. From Economnic and Political WVeek lv, and Policy Options. Frances Stewart. July 1979. Bombay, vol. 13, no. 21 (May 27. 1978). pp. 30-45. No. 345. Family Planning Programs: An Evaluation Number 97. The Task Ahead for the Cities of the of Experience. Roberto Cuca. July 1979. Developing Countries. George Beier. Anthony Churchill, Michael Cohen, and Bertrand Renaud. No. 346. Prospects for Traditional and Non- From World Dev elopment, vol. 4, no. 5 (May 1976), conventional Energy Sources in Developing Countries. pp. 363-409. David Hughart. July 1979. Number 98. Macrosocial Change, Feminization of No. 347. National Urbanization Policies in Developing Agriculture, and Peasant Women's Threefold Eco- Countries. Bertrand Renaud. July 1979. nomic Role. Michael Cernea. From Sociolo-ia Ruralis. vol. 18. no. 213 (1978), pp. 107-24. No. 348. Private Direct Foreign Investment in Devel- oping Countries. K. Billerbeck and Y. Yasugi. July 1979. Number 99. Participation of Beneficiaries in Financ- ing Urban Services: Valorization Charges in Bogota, No. 349. Adjustment Policies and Problems in Colombia. William A. Doebele. Orville F. Grimes. Jr., Developing Countries. Martin Wolf. August 1979. and Johannes F. Linn. From Landc Economics. vol. 55. no. 1 (February 1979). pp. 73-92. No. 350. Energy Options and Policy Issues in Devel- oping Countries. D. G. Fallen-Bailey and T. A. Byer. Number 100. Measurement Errors and the Per- August 1979. manent Income Hypothesis: Evidence from Rural India. Surjit S. Bhalla. From The Amner-icanl Econiomic No. 351. Growth and Equity in Semi-industrialized Review. vol. 69. no. 3 (June 1970), pp. 295-307. Countries. Joel Bergsman. August 1979. Number 101. International Debt Renegotiation: No. 352. Capital Flows and Developing Country Debt. Lessons from the Past. Albert C. Cizauskas. From Jeffrey A. Katz. August 1979. World Development. vol. 7 (1979). pp. 199-210. *N ()KLD B ANK kz~ -- Rl '1 \RI Ni 1.JNl'ARY 19811 Number 102. A Multisectoral Model with Endogen- Brazil: Human Resources Special Report. Peter T. ous Terminal Conditions. Richard Inman. Roger Knight, Chief of Mission, et al.. Latin America and the Norton. and Yoon Hyung Kim. From Journtul of Devel- Caribbean Regional Office. October 1979. opmente Economics. vol. 6 (19791. pp. 237-60. Chile: An Economy in Transition. Fred D. Levy, Chief Number 103. Choice of Technology: Criteria, of Mission. et al., Latin America and the Caribbean Search, and Interdependence. Yung W. Rhee and Regional Office. January 1980. Larry E. Westphal. From Herbert Giersch (ed.). Ititer- national Economic Developente anid Resolu-ce The Comoros: Problems and Prospects of a Small Island Tra,isfe'r: Workshop 17)7,% lInstitut fur Weltwirtschaft Economy. P. Landell-Mills, Chief of Mission. et al., an der Universitlit Kiel) (Tibingen: J.C.B. Mohr I Paul Eastern Africa Regional Office. July 1979. Siebecki 19791. pp. 521-46. Ecuador: Development Problems and Prospects. Alexander G. Nowicki, Chief of Mission, et al., Latin WORLD BANK COUNTRY STUDIES America and the Caribbean Regional Office. July 1979. World Bank coulit/i studies ate prepared nainlY torthe El Salvador: Demographic Issues and Prospects. Farid Bank s owni use, with distribution restricted to mneniber- Dhanji, Latin America and the Caribbean Regional govertitnenits anid ititer-tiationial orgatlizatiotis that deal Office. October 1979. ws ith dev elopnient problems. Il/her-e the issues studied halle attracted a wide interest, where it appears that India: Economic Issues in the Power Sector. Charles the Bank s study could contr ibute substatitiallv to Taylor. Chief of Mission, et al., South Asia Regional knowledge atid undelrstatiditig of these issues. atid where Office. November 1979. the authom-ities of the country conceined are agreeable, such repor-ts are ttiade available to a wider audietice. Mexico: Manufacturing Sector: Situation, Prospects Potenitial readers are adiised that these are work- and Policies. Alexander G. Nowicki, Chief of Mission, itig docuttients. tiot prepar-ed with a viewr to broad et al., Latin America and the Caribbean Regional distribution. Office. March 1979. r - O L..dV.it! I) IIXhN- ----K 0r (0 0 World Bank Headquarters 1818 H Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A. Telephone: (202) 477-1234 Cable Address: INTBAFRAD WASHINGTONDC European Office: 66, avenue d'I6na 75116 Paris, France Tokyo Office: Kokusai Building 1-1, Marunouchi 3-chome Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100, Japan