KAZAKHSTAN SUSTAINABLE LIVESTOCK DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM Project Objective: Support the development of an environmentally sustainable, inclusive, and competitive beef production in Kazakhstan Program Background: The program will support the plan of the Kazakhstan government to substantially increase beef production and meat exports in a sustainable way. The WB will be disbursed upon the achievement of results that have been agreed upon at the outset of the program. The Kazakhstan Sustainable Livestock Development Program will essentially shift Kazakhstan’s livestock sector’s growth from the current purely expansion-based approach described in the Government's long-term Livestock Strategy towards an efficiency-based approach that will reduce area expansion, control GHG emission increase and foster carbon sequestration. Grass-based livestock production systems manage about 58 million ha of grassland in Kazakhstan and the cool climate is conducive to carbon accumulation in soils. The Program will support the gradual improvement of grassland management through improved practices and conditionality of public support, resulting in a net mitigation effect in line with climate commitments. Increased soil carbon sequestration will be achieved through the adoption of improved grazing management and landscape restoration practices, which allow more reactive management of grazing pressure (in time and space), that contributes to improving grass growth. Location: Agroecological zone: Kazakh Steppe, semiarid/arid continental climate (200 - 400 mm precipitation/year) Program Activities The program includes the following results areas: Results Area 1. Improve Veterinary Service Delivery and Animal Recording Results Area 2. Scale-up the Farmer-Centric Service Delivery Model. Results Area 3. Efficient AgriEnvironmental Policies for the Beef Sector. Results Area 1: Improve Veterinary Service Delivery and Animal Recording Results of this area aim at improving the delivery of public services, with a focus on animal health, food safety, and veterinary service delivery, that are necessary conditions for a competitive and export-oriented livestock sector - through the implementation of a traceability system (integrated animal identification and recording system with full coverage of the herd) and access to quality veterinary services (by individual and household farms). Technical and marketing impacts achieved under the Program 2019 2025, with Program Animal numbers National herd of cattle - total (head) 7,150,000 9,638,000 National herd of beef cattle (head) 2,341,684 5,451,684 Farm numbers and size Individual farms with cattle 27,000 47,000 Individual farms selling calves to 14,000 34,000 feedlots Average herd size on the individual 48 77 farms (heads) Production Average live weight at slaughter on 500 550 feedlots Capacity of feedlots (animal places *2 450,000 940,000 cycles) Marketing Total beef produced (tons carcass 477,000 525,000 weight) Total beef sold on export market (tons 30,000 130,000 carcass weight)a Production practices Individual farms implementing good 1,350 32,400 animal and grassland management practices (number) Land use Grassland requirements (ha per head) 8.0 6.2 Area of grassland under improved grazing management (thousand ha) 734 2,737 Source: World Bank. Note: A herd of cattle includes dairy cattle as well as beef cattle. a. Average export price is estimate at US$3,000 per ton. Results Area 2 (most relevant for hackathon): Scale-up the Farmer-Centric Service Delivery Model. Specific Objective: Promote adoption of good practices that mainstream the principles of climate smart agriculture through refinements in advisory systems that improve access to knowledge and technologies. Planned activities related to soil carbon sequestration: (a) development an appropriate grassland and animal husbandry management practices that integrate the principle of climate-smart agriculture, such as: - rotational grazing (intensive grazing employing high animal stocking rates for short durations); - live fences; Other activities of results area 2: (b) implementation of scaled-up farmer training programs; (c) support to technical advisory services; (d) development of the national network of model farms and agricultural competency centers; (e) carrying out farmer-field-schools training programs for household farmers; and (f) provision of technical assistance to link beef cattle farmers with feedlots. Program Beneficiaries in results area 2 Registered individual farmers (generally with holding sizes between 10 and 500 heads of cattle) are the focus of the Program. At least 100,000 household and small individual farmers are expected to directly benefit from improved agricultural advisory and knowledge transfer services through the interventions supported by the Program. Results Area 3: Implement Green Growth Policies for the Beef Sector Results of project Area 3 will provide results-based support for gradual transitioning to policies and State support measures that promote productivity and competitiveness of the beef sector and at the same time reduce the pressure on the environment and mitigate climate impacts. Activities supported include: (a) mainstreaming green growth and sustainability principles for the beef cattle sector in the State Program for FY 2022-2026; and (b) streamlining of agricultural support regulations for promoting good practices for green growth principles in the beef sector. Activities Mitigation benefits For disbursement of WB loans, the share - Under the Program, farmers will need to fulfill of public expenditure in support of green environmental criteria to access public support. They will growth and sustainability in the beef include elements such as animal feeding, manure sector has to rise over the program management and grassland management, which will result in duration. GHG emission reduction. - Some new lines of support measures, e.g. for manure management and plantation of live fences will also contribute in net GHG emission reduction. Estimated GHG emissions and soil carbon sequestration through program activities (calculated using the EX-ACT tool) Year 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Total (million tons CO2-eq) Program Growth in GHG emissions 0.6 1.2 1.8 2.4 3.1 9.2 Carbon sequestration 1.0 2.1 3.1 4.1 5.2 15.5 Fossil fuel displacement 0.01 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.07 0.20 Net emissions under the Program -0.4 -0.9 -1.3 -1.7 -2.1 -6.4 Program compared to baseline Net emissions baseline 1.0 1.9 2.9 3.9 4.8 14.5 Net emissions Program -0.4 -0.9 -1.3 -1.7 -2.1 -6.4 Net Emission reduction (Program versus baseline) 1.4 2.8 4.2 5.6 7.0 20.9 Assumptions underlying modelled soil carbon sequestration through improved grazing practices: Area of grassland in use Sequestration rates Carbon sequestration (million ha) (metric tons C/ha/year) (million (million metric tons metric tons CO2eq) C) Baseline Improved Total Baseline Good management management management management practices practices practices practices 2019 57.5 0.5 58 0 0.4 n.a n.a 2025 - 61.82 0.5 62.32 1.0 3.7 Baseline 2025 - 58.4 3.2 61.6 4.2 15.5 Program Source: World Bank. Program Objective-linked indicator: The program is developing a MVR of emissions for the beef cattle sector. MRV to also include changes of carbon stock in grasslands. Desired insights from hackathon: • Need of a MRV for livestock project aimed at overall emission reduction - the methods they currently use produce high uncertainties and they are short on technical capacity to improve it; • The project also aims at delivering an improved MRV of livestock emissions to the Kazakstan government to communicate its NDC implementation to the UNFCCC. • An MRV to become the basis for involving the agriculture sector in the Kazakstan Emission Trading Systems (ETS). Although Ag is not there yet, the sector can provide emissions reduction to the ETS.