SOMALIA COVID-19 HIGH FREQUENCY PHONE SURVEY WAVE 2 BRIEF NOVEMBER 2021 Authors: Andy Kotikula, Milad Pournik, and Kazusa Yoshimura 1. KEY MESSAGES Satisfaction with the government’s Somalis are receptive to testing and 01 response and awareness of its 02 vaccination, with over 90 percent COVID-19 measures remain high; expressing interest in receiving however, the adoption of preventative testing and vaccines, if provided measures was less widespread in without cost. Wave 2 than in Wave 1. 03 04 The COVID-19 pandemic continues Natural disasters such as floods, to affect the well-being of the droughts and desert locust people of Somalia. In January 2021, infestations have further strained the 79 percent of households reported resilience of the Somali population, further reductions in sources of while fewer households could rely on income while assistance appears to key coping mechanisms. have reduced since July 2020. This reduction has resulted in a rise in food insecurity including situations where hungry adults fail to eat. 2 2. INTRODUCTION The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has touched every corner of the globe but the impact on each country and household has The first round of the SHFPS was carried out in June and July 2020, covering been varied. As evidenced by the current global asymmetry in vaccine rollout, the ability of populations to cope with the pandemic varies 2,811 HOUSEHOLDS dramatically. Moreover, the effects of COVID-19 are not uniformly experienced and require and yielded several noteworthy findings. nuanced data to evaluate. The Somali High- Frequency Phone Surveys (SHFPS) of nationally In January 2021, the second wave of the representative households were conducted to SHFPS was administered. The sample size elicit such data. was 1,756 for this round: The first round of the SHFPS was carried out in 518 516 413 309 URBAN RURAL IDP NOMAD June and July 2020 covering 2,811 households and yielded several noteworthy findings. First, although awareness of the virus and its associated symptoms and preventative measures was high, lifting/extending the curfew notice, and reopen many Somalis tended not to practice behaviors the transport sector along with other businesses. they knew to be useful in curbing its spread. Second, the more vulnerable the populations This brief will explore the insights from Wave 2. (Internally Displaced Populations (IDPs), nomads To track progress over time, the questions were and rural households), the more adversely affected largely the same but, given the developments they were by the strains of the pandemic. Third, around a vaccine and testing, several questions the COVID-19 outbreak had profound economic were added on these topics. The sample size consequences resulting in reduced employment for this round was 1,756, with 518 households and household incomes. belonging to the urban, 516 to rural, 413 to IDPs1 and 309 to nomad populations. Most of In January 2021, the second wave of the SHFPS this sample (91 percent) overlapped with that was administered. Between the two waves, of Wave 1, with the remaining 9 percent being in August 2020, the Federal Government of new respondents who were contacted through Somalia (FGS) made the move to reopen schools Random Digit Dialing (RDD). Moreover, the survey nationwide, relax the stay-at-home measures by covered all areas of the country. 1 Here IDPs include both those living inside and outside IDP sites. IDPs were identified based on the question “Have you had to leave your home in the last three years due to conflicts or natural disasters (i.e., drought, flooding)?” 3 3. COVID-19 KNOWLEDGE AND BEHAVIOUR On a positive note, respondents sensed an increased compared to 27 percent in Wave 1. Respondents are effort by the Somali government to disseminate still highly satisfied with the government’s response information regarding the virus, 32 percent in Wave 2 to the pandemic, at 87 percent, in Wave 2. FIGURE 1: SHARE OF POPULATION AWARE OF GOVERNMENT COVID-19 MEASURES 63% Advised citizens to stay at home 72% Closure of schools and universities 42% 58% Restricted travel within country/area 27% 34% Restricted international travel 21% 30% Disseminate knowledge about the virus 27% 32% Curfew/lockdown 9% 13% Closure of non essential businesses 11% 14% Open clinics and testing locations 7% 7% Building more hospitals for COVID19 patients 1% 5% 3% Other 6% 1% Provide food to needy 2% Wave 1 Wave 2 PREVENTATIVE BEHAVIOUR In Wave 2, the adoption of preventive measures is even less widespread. There is a notable reduction in the proportion of Somalis who wash their hands with soap more often than usual: 89% 77% 78% 64% WASH THEIR HANDS WITH SOAP MORE OFTEN AVOID UNNECESSARY PHYSICAL GREETINGS 74% 53% 44% 41% AVOID UNNECESSARY PHYSICAL GATHERINGS WEAR MASKS REGULARLY WHILE IN PUBLIC SPACES 4 The drop in adoption of preventive behaviors could several COVID-19 bans, and relaxation of rules set be attributed to financial constraints, the lifting of by the FGS between July 2020 and January 2021. FIGURE 2: SHARE OF POPULATION THAT ADOPTS COVID-19 PREVENTIVE MEASURES 89% 77% 78% 74% 64% 53% 44% 41% Wash hands with soap Avoid handshakes or Avoid group of Wear mask in public more often than usual physical greetings more than 10 people at least half the time Wave 1 Wave 2 4. TESTING AND VACCINATION Given the importance of widespread testing, it is FIGURE 3: SHARE OF POPULATION WILLING TO GET VACCINATED reassuring to see that an overwhelming majority (91 percent) of Somalis expressed interest in free 91% testing for COVID-19. This sentiment is remarkably 65% high across all subgroups. In terms of vaccination, Somalis are similarly receptive (91 percent) to the potential provision of free vaccines. The attitude 30% toward vaccination is similar across all genders, 8% 5% population types and areas. However, the majority 1% (65 percent) would be unwilling to pay for the Yes No Not Sure vaccine themselves while 30 percent would pay for vaccination and the remaining 5 percent Free Vaccine Pay for Vaccine are unsure. Those who would refuse to get vaccinated, whether for free or at a cost, generally (17 percent) and effectiveness (19 percent) of the mistrust vaccines (38 percent) or doubt the safety COVID-19 vaccine. 5 5. EMPLOYMENT, REMITTANCES AND INCOMES EMPLOYMENT The economic impacts of COVID-19 are still surveys filtered by different population type. profound and widespread, while a notable The employment rate increased from 38 to improvement has been observed especially 60 percent in urban areas and from 35 to 54 in urban, rural and IDP populations. The percent in rural areas. The employment rate for overall employment rate grew to 49 percent IDPs also improved from 41 to 43 percent. On in Wave 2 compared to 39 percent in Wave 1. the other hand, employment rate for nomad Figure 4 shows the employment rate in both has worsened from 40 to 34 percent. FIGURE 4: EMPLOYMENT RATE IN WAVES 1 AND 2 60% 54% 43% 40% 38% 35% 41% 34% Urban Rural IDP Nomad Wave 1 Wave 2 INCOME Looking at all income sources,2 we find that 79 the interviewed households (73 percent) reported percent of surveyed households report a decline that their overall income from their main income in income from all key sources compared to 80 sources had decreased” (pg. 26). percent in Wave 1. These data are corroborated by the survey conducted by the Food and The situation is worse compared to the pre- Agriculture Organization (FAO) in August and COVID pandemic period for those with nonfarm September 2020, revealing that “the majority of family businesses. Of the Somalia households 2 Key sources of household income are wage employment (39 percent), farming, livestock, or fishing (30 percent), and non- farm family business (13 percent). Other sources include assistance from NGOs and family members living inside and outside the country. 6 owning a family business, 89 percent reported of households, respectively. The 31-percentage fewer or no sales since the outbreak of COVID-19 point increase in the share of households reporting in January 2021, up from 83 percent in July 2020. lower remittance amounts received from abroad The most commonly cited reasons for business likely reflects the adverse effect of COVID19 sales reduction were business closure due to on many economies around the world and the COVID-19 restrictions (38 percent) and fewer financial capabilities of the Somali diaspora. Sub- or no customers (51 percent). The sectors most Saharan Africa is the worst affected region, with affected by business closure were trading (34 a decline of 12.5 percent in remittances through percent) and mining (17 percent). formal means (World Bank, May 2021). It is important to note that the data we present are This finding is consistent with data from Round 2 those that households experience at home and of the Enterprise Survey, which found that about thereby include formal and informal channels. half of the firms experienced a decline in sales in December 2020 compared to the same months While the livelihood situation has not improved, in 2019. For an average firm, sales in December assistance appears to be greatly reduced compared were 10 percent lower than in the same months to July 2020. Comparing Wave 2 with Wave 1, the in 2019 (Coronavirus and the private sector in most prominent reductions in income are seen Somalia: Results from Round 2 of COVID-19- in the form of government assistance (78 percent focused Enterprise Survey, March 2021). On a versus 48 percent), nongovernmental organization positive note, Round 2 of the Enterprise Survey (NGO) assistance (70 percent versus 59 percent), found that cuts to workforce and working hours and nonfamily assistance (98 percent versus 66 have been waning and almost all surveyed firms percent). The numbers indicate that, as the effects are optimistic about returning to full capacity. of the pandemic prolong, there is less appetite and fewer resources to support households in their Similarly, those working in the agricultural efforts to cope with the economic ramifications. sector have not witnessed improvement. Wave This is particularly problematic given that most 2 SHFPS found that 78 percent of households Somalis now experience reduction across all types working in farming, fishing or livestock-rearing of incomes. had reduced incomes compared to 93 percent of households that had nonfarm family businesses. This is in contrast to Wave 1, when 80 percent of households working in farming, fishing or livestock-rearing reported declining incomes 50% AND 31% compared to 89 percent of those running nonfarm family businesses. of households reported the reduction of frequency and amount of remittances respectively since the outbreak of COVID19. The COVID19 outbreak continues to adversely affect remittances flow, reducing income for Somali households. In July 2020, 10 percent of Since then, remittance flows decreased households answered that they have received further with the frequency and amount remittances from abroad in the last 12 months, declining for and among them, 50 percent and 31 percent of households reported the reduction of frequency and amount of remittances respectively since 56% AND 62% the outbreak of COVID19. Since then, remittance flows decreased further with the frequency and of households, respectively. amount declining for 56 percent and 62 percent 7 FIGURE 6: SHARE OF SOMALIS THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED A REDUCTION OF INCOME DURING WAVE 1 AND WAVE 2 (BY INCOME SOURCE) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Non-farm family business Unemployment benefits Assistance from family within the country Family farming, livestock or fishing Wage employment Assistance from other non-family individuals Properties, investment or savings Assistance from NGOs/charitable organizations Assistance from the government Pension Total income Wave 1 Wave 2 6. ACCESS TO BASIC NECESSITIES AND SERVICES FOOD STAPLES The situation in terms of availability of food in the has resulted in a rise in food insecurity scenarios market has improved, compared to July 2020. 82 including situations where hungry adults fail to percent of Somali households that tried to buy eat (from 47 to 49 percent), adults go without food had access to all three key staple foods in food the entire day (from34 to 37 percent), and Wave 2. Despite the improved access to food households run out of food (from 64 to 68 staples, the reduction in incomes and assistance percent), between Wave 1 and Wave 2. FIGURE 7: FOOD SECURITY SCENARIOS Run out of food 64% 68% Adult hungry but did not eat 47% 49% Adult did not eat entire day 34% 37% Wave 1 Wave 2 8 The socioeconomic impacts of COVID-19 are only 57 percent of households was able to access among some of the many drivers of acute food medical services in Wave 2. The majority of Somalis insecurity in Somalia. Deteriorating livelihoods and (83 percent) cite lack of money as the reason for incomes have exacerbated food insecurity across their inability to access medical services, while the country. Other drivers of food insecurity another 10 percent quotes the unavailability of include poor and erratic rainfall, flooding, desert medical personnel. locust infestations, and conflict (FEWS NET, February 4, 2021). Higher cost of living due to FIGURE 8: SHARE OF POPULATION NEEDING AND ABLE TO price increases of basic necessities, farm and ACCESS MEDICAL SERVICES business inputs has led to a significant proportion of Somali households lacking food and drinking 61% water, with some households going without food 57% the entire day or skipping some meals. 53% 51% The FAO (January 2021) report on food security found that, “74.3 percent of households experienced moderate or severe food insecurity, while 53.5 percent experienced severe food Need medical services Access to medical services insecurity” (pg. 36). The good news is that the pandemic did not cause an increase in the price Wave 1 Wave 2 of locally produced food staples. The main price change observed was a temporary increase in EDUCATION imported rice prices during April and May 2020. Following the reopening of schools in August HEALTH 2020, the share of the Somali population with access to schooling in Wave 2 has more than The reduction in household financial resources doubled compared to Wave 1. Unsurprisingly, also affects their health. A greater proportion of those living in rural areas (612percent), IDPs (65 households needed medical services in Wave 2 percent) and nomads (65 percent) still have below (61 percent) than in Wave 1 (51 percent). However, average access to schooling compared with those despite the higher demand for medical services, from urban areas (76 percent). 9 7. SHOCKS AND COPING MECHANISMS SHOCKS Given the aforementioned data, it is perhaps economic shocks (70 percent versus 75 percent) unsurprising that more than half of the Somali in Wave 2 compared to Wave 1. In this regard, population reported experiencing food price and IDPs and nomads were the most likely to have economic shocks in both waves of the survey. experienced an economic shock: 74 percent of Yet, fewer respondents reported facing food IDPs and 78 percent of nomads compared to 64 price shocks (65 percent versus 76 percent) and percent in rural areas and 65 percent in urban areas. 3 FIGURE 10: SHARE OF HOUSEHOLDS AFFECTED BY VARIOUS SHOCKS Economic shock 75% 70% 76% Food price shock 65% 46% Natural disaster shock 64% 22% Security shock 19% 20% Health shock 13% Wave 1 Wave 2 On the other hand, respondents also reported an COPING MECHANISMS increase in shocks from natural disasters (from 46 percent in Wave 1 to 64 percent in Wave 2). Fewer households could rely on key coping This increase can also be attributed to flooding, mechanisms in Wave 2 compared to Wave 1. For erratic rainfall and desert locust infestations, which example, assistance from family and friends declined are the worst the country has experienced in 25 to 45 percent from 46 percent and loans from years (FAO 2021). Indeed, rural households were family and friends decreased to 39 percent from the most susceptible group to natural disaster 46 percent. shocks (83 percent) compared to 68 percent of nomads, 69 percent of IDPs, and 47 percent of On the other hand, coping mechanism that was urban households. more heavily relied on in Wave 2 was humanitarian 3 Economic shocks include: (i) job loss, (ii) nonfarm business closure, (iii) disruption of farming activities, (iv) lack of availability of business/farming inputs, (v) increased price of farming/business inputs, and (vi) reduced price of farming/business output. Food price shocks include: (i) increase in price of major food items. Natural disasters include: (i) flooding, (ii) drought, and (iii) locust invasion. Security threats include: (i) theft/looting of cash and other property and (ii) conflict or community violence. 10 assistance from NGOs and governments, additional percent in Wave 2. This assistance worked to reverse income generating activities and savings. Humanitarian the food insecurity situation by offering in-cash and assistance increased from 22 percent in Wave 1 to 30 in-kind relief to the neediest households. FIGURE 11: COPING MECHANISMS 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% Assistance from family/friends Loan from family/friends Humanitarian assistance from Gov/NGO Additional income generating activity Savings Did nothing Financial solution Loan from financial institution Sales of assets Reduced consumption Sold harvest in advance Insurance Wave 1 Wave 2 8. CONCLUSION The data gathered from SHFPS Wave 2 provide signs. First, preventive behavior is becoming less reasons for optimism and concern. On the widespread, which means that another spike positive side, Somalis are still highly aware of the in COVID-19 rates may occur as Somalis grow preventative measures that they need to follow, restless with pandemic protocols. Second, are satisfied with the government’s response, and while government support and humanitarian are keen to avail of free testing and vaccination. assistance have helped to bolster their Moreover, the reopening of schools has meant resilience, Somalis are still highly susceptible to that Somalis have witnessed a remarkable food insecurity, poverty, and poor health. Finally, increase in educational access reaching almost the presence of concurrent shocks, primarily pre-pandemic levels. climate-related ones such as erratic rainfall and desert locust infestation, makes the situation Nonetheless, the data reveal several concerning even more challenging. 11 ANNEX METHODOLOGY The SHFPS sample captures households The probability of being included in the phone survey with access to mobile phones. Mobile phone is estimated based on selected variables which are penetration rates in Somalia are high even common to the two surveys. After running the among nomads and rural dwellers. According PSW, weights were assigned to all observations of to the Somali Health and Demographic Survey, our phone survey such that the observations with around 74 percent of households own mobile the lowest probability of being included in a phone phones. Sixty-seven percent of rural dwellings and survey are given more weight in the sample. After 59 percent of nomadic households own simple PSW, the ranking procedure has been conducted mobile telephones with access to FM radio. to render the sample representative at either the population type level or the state level. However, despite high phone penetration rates across Somalia, reaching rural and nomadic • Data collection period: January 2021 respondents proved difficult. Relative to urban • Completed interviews: 1,756 households (518 settings, phone penetration is lower for these urban, 516 rural, 413 IDPs and 309 nomadic households; lifestyle considerations and access population) to energy makes mobile phone usage irregular. • Average duration of interview: 32 minutes To ensure the representativeness of the distribution DEMOGRAPHICS OF RESPONDENTS of Somali households by state and population type, each household observation was adjusted • Area: Banadir 108, South West 351, Hirshabelle by a sampling weight. Two sets of weights were 267, Jubaland 224, Galmudug 261, Puntland calculated. Panel weights were applied when 173, Somaliland 372 variables appeared both in Wave 1 and in Wave 2, • Gender: There is an equal representation of while cross-sectional weights were applied in the women and men. household profile section as well as for variables • Age: The study participants in Wave 2 were new to Wave 2. aged between 18 years and 97 years with an average age of 38 years. The respondents are The weighting procedure accounts for the young as the majority (62 percent) are aged potential selection bias generated in phone below 40 years while only 12 percent are aged surveys. This is achieved using a Propensity over 60 years. Score Weighting (PSW) procedure to correct for • Household size: varies between one and 25 the under-coverage of households that do not members with an average membership of have access to a mobile phone. PSW allows the six persons. computation of weights based on households’ • Education: The majority (60 percent) of probability of being included in the phone survey. respondents, most of whom are women (72 To calculate the PSW weights, we needed to pool percent), has not complete primary school our phone survey with a representative household education. The remaining proportion of survey: the SHFPS Wave 2. respondents comprises those who completed 12 primary (11 percent),completed secondary institutions (14 percent), and completed school (7 percent) or attended tertiary Quranic school (8 percent). REFERENCES FAO (2021). Somalia: Agricultural livelihoods Group: http://documents.worldbank. and food security in the context of COVID- org/curated/en/540261609935995160/ 19: Monitoring Report – January 2021. Rome. Improving-Access-to-Jobs-for-the-Poor-and- https://doi.org/10.4060/cb2947en Vulnerable-in-Somalia FSNAU and FEWS NET (February 2021). 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