PHN-8719 VOL. 2 PHN T ASIA REGION POPULATION PROJECTIONS 1987-88 Short- and Long-Term Estimates by K. C. Zachariah My T. Vu Revised December 1987 Population and Human Resources Department World Bank The World Bank does not accept responsibility for the views expressed herein which are those of the author(s) and should not. be attributed to the World Bank or to its affiliated organizations. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions are the results of research supported by the Bank; they do not necessarily represent official policy of the Bank. The designations employed, the presentation of material, and any maps used in this document are solely for the convenience of the reaLder and do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the World Bank or its affiliates concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city area, or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitations of its boundaries, or national affiliation. 卜 & 戶 kk PHN Technical Note 87-19b ASIA REGION POPULATION PROJECTIONS 1987-88: Short- aDd Long--Tenft Estimates A B S T R A C T Population projections from 1985 to :2030 for every country in the World Bank's Asia region are reported. Age stracture and demographic indicators are given for each quinquennium. Demographic indicators are also reported for groups of countries corresponding to Bank country departments in the region, as well as, for comparison, for the whole world and for countries grouped by income. A general introduction describes the methodology, provides a general overview of results, and compares estimates with U;N. estimates. The introduction includes tables and appended figures comparing Bank regions and departments. Prepared by: K. C. Zachariah and My T. Vu Population, 'Health and Nutrition Division November 1987 � 4 � л 1 CONTENTS Foreword v Acknowledgements vi Methods, Assumptions, and Principal Results I Tables Table 1. Annual Increment in Female Life Expectancy 15 Table 2. Population Growth by Geographic Region, 1985-2025 15 Table 3. Year in Which World Population Reached 1 Billion, 2 Billion, Etc.* 16 Table 4. Demographic Situation in World Bank Regions and Departments, 1985-90 16 Table 5. Demographic Trends in World Bank Regions and Departments 17 Table 6. Population in 2000 and Stationary Population by Region and for Selected Countries, from World Bank Projections of 1980 and 1987 (millions) 18 Table 7. Population and Percentage Distribution by Geographic Region and Income Group, 1985-2100 19 Table 8. Annual Population Increase and Growth Rate by Geographic Region and Income Group, 1985-2100 20 Table 9. Estimated Fertility and Mortality Rates by Geographic Region and Income Group, 1985-90, 2000, and 2025 21 Table 10. Population and Percentage Distribution by Bank Region, 1985-2100 22 Table 11. Annual Population Increase and. Growth Rate by Bank Region, 1985-2100 23 Table 12. Estimated Fertility and Mortality Rates by Bank Region, 1985-2025 24 Table 13. Stationary Population by Geographic Region and for Countries of 100 Million or More 25 Table 14. Stationary Population for All Countries 26 Table 15. Population Projections for All Countries, 1985-2025 (thousands) 29 Table 16. Economies Classified by Income Group 34 -Table 17. Countries Classified by Bank Region 35 Table 18.- Countries Grouped in the "Other" Categories by Region 36 Appendix A. Data Sources Table Al. Sources of Population Data 37 Table A2. Sources of Fertility Data 44 Table A3. Sources of Mortality Data 50 Appendix B. Comparisons of Population Estimates Table B. Population Estimates, World Bank and U.N., 1985, 2000, 2025 55 Appendix C. Comparisons among Bank Regions Figure Cl. Contribution to World Population Growth by Bank Region, 1985-90 58 Figure C2. Contribution to World Popula,:ion Growth by Bank Region, 2000 58 Figure C3. Annual Growth Rates, 1985-90 and 2000,- for World and Bank Regions 59 Figure C4. Crude Birth and Death Rates, 1985-90, by Country Department 59 Figure C5. Total Fertility Rate by Country Department, 1985-90 60 Figure C6. Life Expectancy and Infant Mortality by Country Department, 1985-90 60 References 61 iii Detailed Population Projections 62 Thailand 118 Viet Nam 120 World and Income Groups World Total 63 Country Department III Less Developed 65 China (excluding Taiwan) 123 More Developed 67 Income Groups Country Department IV Low-Income Economies 69 India 126 Lower-Middle-Income Economies 71 Upper-Middle-Income Economies 73 Country Department V High-Income Economies (oil Fiji 129 exporters) 75 Indonesia 131 Industrial Market Economies 77 Kiribati 133 Nonreporting Nonmember Maldives 135 Economies 79 Papua New Guinea 137 Solomon Islands 139 Regional Sumnary Tonga 141 Asia and Pacific Region Vanuatu 143 All countries 82 Western Samoa 145 Borrowers only 84 Country Department I 86 Nonborrowers (East Country Department II 88 and Southeast Asia) Country Department III 90 Brunei 148 Country Department IV 92 Hong Kong 150 Country Department V 94 Japan 152 Korea, Dem. People's Rep. of 154 Asia and Pacific Macao 156 Country Department I Mongolia 158 Bangladesh 97 Singapore 160 Bhutan 99 Taiwan, China 162 Nepal 101 Sri Lanka 103 Nonborrowers (Oceania) Australia 165 Country Department II French Polynesia 167 Burma 106 Guam 169 Kampuchea, Dem. 108 New Caledonia 171 Korea, Rep. of 110 New Zealand 173 Lao People's Dem. Rep. 112 Pacific Islands 175 Malaysia 114 Other Micronesia 177 Philippines 116 Other Polynesia 179 iv FOREWORD A report on World Bank population projections for 1987-88, the tenth report in a series that began with the Bank's first World Development Report in 1978, is being published this year for external use for the third time. In addition, for use within the Bank, separate working papers are being produced on each of the four Bank regions. This working paper contains the population projection results that pertain to the Asia region. The Introduction to the main report was expanded to address questions about methodology and data sources that were raised about previous reports. This Introduction is reproduced here in full. It includes a brief history of the population estimates and projections work in the World Bank; delineates sources of the principal data used; provides a comparison of the Bank estimates with U.N. estimates; and tabulates basic demographic information on the World Bank's new operational regions and departments. Appendix C, which does not appear in the book, has been added to the Introduction to highlight comparisons among Bank country departments. A program to run Bank population projections on personal computers is available for staff who wish to make use of it. Dean T. Jamison Chief PopulatiDn, Health and Nutrition Division v -nÞ ACKNOWLEDGEIENTS A number of persons helped us in the preparation of the book and this working paper. From the very beginning, Ms. Junko Sazaki was responsible for much of the computer work. The systematic manner in which she carried out the computer work helped maintain the accuracy of the estimates and projections. Randy Bulatao was available whenever we needed his help in computer programming and solving methodological questions. The work will be in good hands when he takes over the main responsibility for this work next year. One of the major time consuming tasks in this work has been data input. Cathy Cataldo spent a considerable part of her short stay with the Department on this work, and Ella Hornsby was responsible for typing the introduction and summary tables. We are also greatly indebted to the staff of the United Nations Population Division, New York, to Celade in Santiago, Chile, and to the U.S. Bureau of the Census, Washington, D.C., for their great help in providing the latest demographic information from their files. K. C. Zachariah My T. Vu vi s F 9 METHODS, ASSUMPTIONS, AND PRINCIPAL RESULTS This set of population projections was prepared for the World Bank's World Development Report 1987 and replaces the set used in World Development Report 1986. The methodology, the years for which estimates and projections are made, and the format of the tables, are more or less the same as those used in the 1985 publication. History of the Bank's Population Estimates and Projections Population projections are prepared routinely by the World Bank each year. In recent years they have been published first in summary form in the Bank's World Development Report and later in much greater detail in separate book form. Although the Bank's population projections began only in 1978 when the first World Development Report was published, the program of preparing population projections by Bank staff began several years earlier, soon after the creation of the Population and Human Resources Division (PHRD). This division began its demographic work using outside consultants, not only for demographic information and analyses but also for population estimates and projections. Feeling the need to build an in-house capacity for demographic analysis and projections in the Bank, the Population and Human Resources Division recruited the necessary staff and began making population projections for selected countries on an ad hoc basis. This exercise proved very useful not only because of the availability of population projections in-house, but also because it gave to the staff the ability to answer economists and project officials about demographic questions in general. Therefore, the exercise was extended to all Bank member countries resulting in the Bank's first staff paper on population projections with the title: "Population Projections for Bank Member Countries 1970-2000" (by K. C. Zachariah and Roberto Cuca, 1974). When PHRD was formally requested to make population estimates and projections for World Development Report 1978, the task was entrusted to a small group under the supervision of a senior demographer. This was the beginning of the annual work on population projections for all countries of the world, including countries that are not members of the Bank. This group assembled the base data needed for the projections in consultation with the country economists and outside agencies, such as the U.N. Population Division, the U.S. Bureau of Census, etc; developed a methodology; borrowed a computer program from the Population Council; and prepared short-term and long-term population projections for all countries of the world. Later, the Bank developed its own computer program to meet the special needs of Bank publications. Until 1983, projections were prepared mainly for use within the Bank: for preparing population and other demographic tables included in the annual World Development Indicators of the World Development Report, for country economic and sector work, and to provide background data for policy work on population and deVelopment. Detailed results were given limited circulation through PHRD staff papers and PHN Technical Notes. Since 1984, detailed results have been published for internal and external use under the title World Population Projections, Short- and Long-term Estimates by Age and Sex with Related Demographic Statistics. With the publication of World Development Report 1984, which had population and development as its special topic, the Bank's population projections reached an international audience. For months during the summer of 1984, the world press was inundated with population estimates and projections prepared by the World Bank. With this international publicity came also greater critical scrutiny of the Bank's projections by outside demographic experts. As a result, some of the gaps in the Bank's projections became evident. They related mostly to lack of information on sources of base data and lack of historical series. Some of these criticisms have been taken into consideration in this publication. Others will be remedied in subsequent issues. The Bank's work in the area of population estimates and projections is never a duplication of the efforts of the U.N. Population Division and other agencies. In some areas, the Bank makes use of data produced by these agencies, but for several countries it adds its own data collected by Bank economists and project officers. In general, it coordinates its work with that of other international agencies. From the beginning, the Bank's method of projection was always -different from that of the U.N.. The distinguishing characteristics of the Bank estimates and projections were: a. annual updating of base data, estimates, and projections, compared with biannual updating by the U.N. and less frequent updating by other agencies b. quick response to changes in base data due to information from new censuses or sample surveys c. production of short-term as well as long-term projections (until stationary stage) through a single method and computer program d. inclusion of all countries of the world e. classification of countries not only by geographic regions but also by development status and national income. Assumptions and Methods Base Total Population and Age-Sex Composition The base year for the 1987 projections is 1985. As in previous years, the total population in 1985 was taken from a variety of sources. A number of countries have had population censuses in recent years. For these countries the mid-1985 population estimates were obtained from the recent census results. For developed countries, the mid-1985 population statistics were taken from official estimates published in the most recent issue of the U.N. Pbpulation and Vital Statistics Report. For the Sub-Saharan African region, revision of base data was made on the basis of new information obtained from censuses or surveys. For the rest, base data were obtained from either the 3 U.N. Population Division, the U.S. Bureau of the Census, other international sources such as Demographic Statistics (Eurostat 1984), or the World Bank's economic and sector reports. Details about the source and method of estimating the 1985 population by country are given in Appendix Table Al. The total population in 1985 was distributed by age and sex on the basis of the percentage distribution from the latest census results (adjusted for errors in age reporting), or from the U.N. revised projections. Mortality Level and Trend The base-year mortality levels in the projections are in general the same as those used in the recent U.N. projections. The exceptions are where the Bank's own analysis indicated a different mortality level (see Appendix Table A2 for details). For projecting mortality, life expectancy at birth was used as the mortality index. It was projected on the basis of a simple model using past patterns of relationships between life expectancy change, its level, and the female primary school enrollment ratio. On the basis of recent evidence of a close relationship between female education and childhood mortality, world data were examined to determine whether female educational levels could be used as a discriminant of mortality levels and change. The latest available data on the percentage of girls enrolled in primary school (normally the years 1973-77) were obtained from the UNESCO Statistical Year Book for 1978-79 for all countries covered in the World Development Report. Data on the percentage of women 20-24 years of age in the 1960s and early 1970s who had had some schooling were obtained from Statistical Report and Studies: Statistics of Educational Attainment and Illiteracy 1945-74 (UNESCO 1977). Unfortunately, such data were available for only thirty developing countries. For all countries, current life expectancy at birth proved to be correlated with current female primary school enrollment (R2 = 0.495). For developing countries alone, however, the results were more striking: R2 = 0.499 for current female primary-school enrollment, 0.526 for female education ten years ago. This group of countries is of course the Bank's prime concern. Thus, there seemed to be a case for estimating trends on the basis of female education. The next step was to examine the relationship between changes in life *expectancy and education, from 1965-69 to 1975-79, for' a given life expectancy (the input variable) measured at the initial (1965-69) level. The data on female primary school enrollment for 1965-69 were also taken from the UNESCO Statistical Report and Studies. The objective was to estimate future yearly increases in female life expectancy for different cltegories of female primary school enrollment. Naturally, the underlying assumption is that the relationship between the initial level of primary 14 school enrollment and subsequent change in life expectancy will be the same in the future as it was from 1965-69 to 1975-79, but there seems to be no practical alternative to such an assumption. After much experimentation with various groupings, countries were divided into two groups: those with initial (1965) female primary school enrollment of less than 70 percent (the "low" group) and those with 70 percent or more (the "high" group). Initially, all data points were included and were divided into low, medium, and high groups. This produced widely scattered data in two lower groups and a poor fit when regression equations were calculated. Attempts were made to improve the fit by changing the dividing point for the medium and low groups and by removing many observation points based on less reliable data. The second procedure improved the R2 values, but produced curves indicating relationships contrary to expectations. This, together with the small size of the resulting groups and the fact that even some of the remaining observations were based on insufficient data, led to the conclusion that it would be safer to use two categories instead of three and to include all the data (with the exception of those for Saudi Arabia). Experience has shown that the changes in fife expectancy increase in size up to a certain point and thereafter decrease in size. Accordingly, regression equations were calculated using linear and quadratic terms for initial life expectancy. Fairly good results were obtained for the high group (see Figure 1). The large variance in the low group (Figure 2), particularly in the countries with lower life expectancies, resulted in a poor fit, but given the scope of the analysis and the constraints imposed by the data, this was the best curve that could be found for the group. With the exception of Saudi Arabia, there was no country in the low group in which initial life expectancy exceeded fifty-five years. Since the curve for the low group was almost linear, the extrapolation of increments for life expectancies of more than fifty-five years would have resulted in unrealistically high values. It was assumed that countries with low educational levels will behave similarly to those with high levels when the former reach the same educational attainment. Therefore, the curve for the low group was made to coincide with that of the high group at higher expectations of life at birth (Figure 3). Table 1 shows the expected increments for the two groups. For a given expectation of life at birth, survival ratios for males and females were derived from the Coale-Demeny model life tables, with mortality levels up to 26 (that is, the expectation of life at birth for females equals 82.5). These tables are in four sets--North, South, East, and West. The particular set used for each depends on region and mortality level, as follows: 5 Figure 1. Hnh Female Pnmary School Enrollment' Figurt 2. Uw Female Pnmary School Enroliment 12 1.2 1~ 0I 1.0 o s 08 0 6 - * 0.6 C04 30 3540 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 OnPnal (1965-691 lemealile expectincy Onginal (1965-69) female life expectancy .\,'e Riwk daita and fitted i alues based on rerssion equaiion Vnte: Raw data and fitted values based on regression equation Ficure 3. Erpecied Change in Female Life Erpeciancv Based on Imnal Female Life Erpectancv and Level nf Inmal Fernale Pnnar School Enrollment Flgure 4. Age-Specific Fertility Panerns by Fertilin, Level 0el 30 a 0°°° ~0 / - ~ 0 / o>4 0 20 0 j 6 1s | 0.3 15 0.2 10 TFR < 3.0 - 0. . .---.-5FR4- 0 Lbw female prunarv school enrollmnent g TFR=4 a Hiý'hfenaie prinary sch
    6.0 o i i i v - I i 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 Initial temale life expectuncy Age 6 Region and mortality level Model life table Sub-Saharan Africa Below 12 South 12-17 North 18 and above West North Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America Below 18 South 18 and above West East and South Asia, North America, Europe, and Oceania All levels West Fertility Level and Trend The principal sources for the base fertility rates were also the revised U.N. population projections (1984). The total fertility rates (TFR) for 1985-90 were taken directly from the U.N. source for some of the developed countries, for a large number of countries in Latin America, and for a few of the Asian and Sub-Saharan African countries. For several countries, most of them in Asia, Latin America, and Sub-Saharan Africa, independent estimates of the TFR were taken from the Bank's economic reports, the World Fertility Survey, and the U.S. Bureau of the Census. In some of these sources, fertility measures were given in terms of the crude birth rate (CBR). The total fertility rate corresponding to the CBR was estimated by using the available age-sex composition and age-specific fertility pattern (see Appendix Table A3 for details about sources). The starting point in estimating future fertility trends is an assumption about what year the net reproduction rate (NRR) is likely to reach unity. It is assumed that in all countries the NRR will reach unity sometime during 2000-2050. The selection of a year for a particular country is governed by the following factors: (a) expectation of life at birth for females of that country during 1985-90, (b) TFR of that country during 1985-90, (c) changes in the birth rate during 1970-80, and (d) status of the country with respect to family planning. The year in which NRR = 1 for each country was determined on the basis of a regression equation estimated from the latest data available. The estimated variables (a) through (d) were substituted in the regression to derive the year in which NRR = 1. The nearest year ending in zero or five was finally selected. The country's status regarding family planning was estimated on the basis of the percentage of married women 15-49 years of age who were currently (latest year available) using some method of,contraception, including methods used by husbands. Information for a majority of the countries was readily available from standard sources. For other countries, 7 program statistics were used. The countries were classified into three categories, based on the strength of the family planning variable: Family planning Contraceptive status prevalence Category Strong 31 or higher 3 Moderate 16-30 2 Weak 15 or lower 1 For the Sub-Saharan African countries it was also assumed that if the countries are in the same subregion and have the same demographic background they will reach a replacement level at more or less the same time. The TFR in the year in which NRR = 1 was estimated on the basis of the country's mortality level in that year. The TFRs for intermediate years were calculated in three steps. First, an exponential curve was fitted to the TFR in 1985-90 and to the TFR in the year in which NRR = 1. Second, this curve was used to estimate the TFR in 1990-95 for Asian, Latin American, and North African countries where the TFR in 1985-90 was greater than 3. Third, the TFRs for the other periods were estimated by fitting a reverse geometric curve in the first segment (up to 1990-95). Such a procedure ensured a slower decline in the beginning of the projection period, when fertility rates were high, and a faster decline at the intermediate level. The procedure followed for the Sub-Saharan African countries and for countries where the TFR in 1985-90 was less than 3 was slightly different. Recent data indicate that the TFR has started to drop in several Sub-Saharan African countries, such as Botswana, the People's Republic of the Congo, Ghana, Kenya, South Africa, Swaziland, and Zimbabwe. In the well-known zone of low fertility and high sterility in Central Africa, however, there appears to have been a rise in fertility and fall in sterility in all the affected areas--the Central African Republic, Chad, Gabon, Zaire, and so on--for which data are available. Therefore, the countries in Sub-Saharan Africa were studied one by one. It was assumed that the TFR would remain constant until 1990-95 in some of them, drop right away in others, and increase slightly in the rest until 1990-95. Then, in all of the Sub-Saharan African countries, fertility would decline according to a reverse geometric curve until half the period between 1990-95 and the year in which NRR = 1. Thereafter, fertility would decline geometrically to the replacement level. For a few countries in Asia and the Middle East, it was also assumed that the TFR would remain constant for some years before beginning to decline. For the low-fertility countries (TFR < 3), fertility rates were projected by assuming a geometric decline (or increase where NRR < 1) to the replacement level. For the period beyond the year in which NRR 1, the TFRs were kept at the replacement level and estimated on the basis of the mortality level at each of the five-year intervals. 8 In some countries fertility is already below replacement level or will decrease to below replacement level during the next five to ten years. Since a population will not become stationary if its net reproduction rate is other than 1, to make estimates of the hypothetical stationary population in these countries it was necessary to assume that their fertility rates would regain replacement levels. For the sake of consistency with the estimates made for other countries, it was assumed that the total fertility rate in the countries where fertility is already below the replacement rate would remain constant until 1990-95, increase to the replacement level by the year 2020, and then remain constant. The projection model includes the feature that the age pattern of TFR changes as fertility rates decline. The patterns at TFR = 7.6, 4.1, and 2.8 are shown in Figure 4. For intermediate rates, the age pattern falls between the curves. In these patterns, the mean age at childbirth declines from 28.86 years when TFR = 7.6, to 28.45 when TFR = 4.1, and to 27.98 when TFR = 2.8 (as in the case of Kenya). Migration Level and Trend One of the sources for the estimates of international migration was also the revised U.N. population projections. Other sources were the documents prepared by the U.N. for the 1984 International Conference on Population, the U.S. Bureau of the Census, Demographic Statistics (Eurostat 1984), and a Bank consultant report on international migration. Because of the limitations of the data, some amount of quinquennial net migration by sex was assumed for countries where past and present trends of migration flow appear to be significant. An age-sex structure was then created for these countries based on the sex ratio of migrants. The estimates of future migration are speculative. For most economies the net migration rates were assumed to be zero by the year 2000; for a few they were allowed to continue, but not beyond the year 2025. To deal with the refugee movements that have occurred recently in Africa, Asia, and Latin America, the Bank's projections include as migrants only those who are likely to remain permanently in the receiving countries. The average quinquennial number of net migrants by sex and net migration rates by country and region are provided in the detailed country results. Summary of Results Population projections were prepared separately for every country in the world. Since many countries reach stability only after 175 years of projection, the results are presented at five-year intervals for the period 1985-2030 and at twenty-five-year intervals thereafter. For each of the 186 separate units, the following information is presented in the accompanying tables: 9 0 Population by sex and five-year age groups, 1985-2150 0 Birth rate, death rate, rate of natural increase, and growth rate for five-year periods from 1985-90 to 2025-2030, and twenty-five- year periods from 2000-2025 to 2125-2150 0 Gross reproduction rate (GRR) and total fertility rate for five- year periods and twenty-five-year periods o Net reproduction rate for five-year periods and twenty-five-year periods 0 Expectation of life at birth (e(3)) and infant mortality rates (IMR) for males and females separately for five-year periods and twenty-five-year periods o Net migrants by sex and net migration rates for the five-year periods and the twenty-five-year periods. According to the projections, the total world population would increase from 4.840 billion in 1985 to 6.176 billion in the year 2000, and 8.188 billion in the year 2025 (see Table 2). The average growth rate during 1985-90 would be about 1.71 percent per year, decreasing to less than one percent by 2025. The birth rate would decline by 10 points but the death rate would decline only by less than 2 points. The world's population increased by about 83 million in 1985, and this absolute increase continues to rise. About five years from now, the increase will peak at around 88 million. The next century will experience not only a steady decline in the rate of growth, but also a steady decline in the absolute increase. Five billion persons. By far the most significant demographic event of 1987 is the birth of the 5 billionth person of the world. The most likely date when the total population of the world crossed 5 billion is sometime between the end of June and early July. According to the figures given in this report the event occurred on June 24th, rather than, as the U.N. estimated, on July 11th. Uncertainties in the total population of some of the large countries, especially those in Africa that have not taken a proper population census in recent years, make it difficult to be precise in this estimate. The monthly growth in the world population in mid-1987 is about 7 million, and in one country alone the uncertainties could be as large as a month's global growth. For example, for 4igeria, the Bank estimate of the total population in 1985 was 96 million and the U.N. estimate was 91 million. The difference is equivalent to 20 days of global growth. But these uncertainties are not large enough to make the margin of error more than 2 or 3 months. Thus, the chances are very high that the world population passed 5 billion in the summer of 1987. Previous and future billions. Table 3 gives the year in which the world population reached or will reach 1 billion, 2 billion, and so on up to 10 billion. It took an indefinitely long period of time for the world population to grow to a billion around the turn of the.19th century. But then, the pace of population growth became more rapid, and in fact the pace has been accelerating since then. It took about 120 years to reach 2 10 billion, 34 years after that for 3 billion, 14 years more for 4 billion, and only 13 years more for 5 billion. Thus, each succeeding billion was added in an ever decreasing period of time. The projections given in this report indicate that world population growth, in absolute terms, has not yet reached its maximum, although the peak is not far off. The 6th and the 7th billions are likely to be reached in a shorter period of about 12 years, but the subsequent billions will take longer. Thus the remaining years of this century will experience relatively stable population growth (in absolute terms) of about 88 million a year. This stability in absolute growth is a result of a decreasing rate of growth and an increasing total population. Stationary population. The rate of population growth has been declining since the latter half of the 1960's when it reached its peak of 2 percent per year. The absolute growth is likely to reach its peak by 1992 and then start declining. But even then the total population will continue to increase for quite some time. It may take more than a century for the total population of the world to show a tendency to decrease. What will be the population of the world be when it stops growing? Any long-term growth estimation is essentially speculative, and the Bank's estimate is no exception. According to the estimate in this report, the total population of the world will not exceed 11 billion. The 10th billion will be reached around 2070, but the population will stabilize below 11 billion. Growth diversity by Bank regions. The four Bank regions have very marked demographic characteristics and growth prospects (see Tables 4 and Table 5; more detail is presented in Tables 10 and 11 and the Appendix Figures). At one extreme is the sub-Saharan Africa region with its high fertility, mortality, and growth rates. The Africa region is expected to double its population in about 20 years. Asia has the lowest fertility and growth rate, and is likely to double in population only in 150 years. Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) has the lowest mortality rate, and partly as a result, its growth rate is higher than that of Asia. The total population of the region is likely to double by 2039. The stationary population is more than twice its present size. The Europe-Middle East-North Africa (EMENA) region is demographically two distinct sub-regions. Its European part has one of the lowest fertility and growth rates anywhere in the world, but crude mortality is slightly higher than in some other subregions because of an older age structure. On the other hand, its Afro-Asian part has growth rates closer to that of the Africa region. But, unlike Africa, the high growth rate in the EMENA region is constituted by relatively lower birth and death rates and a significant immigration rate. The total population of the EMENA region is expected to double by 2023. Bank member countries in Asia have more than half the population 6f the world, and the region also contributes nearly half of the world's annual population growth. But Asia's share in growth will decrease and Africa's share will overtake Asia's. In the latter half of the twenty- 11 second century, much of the world's population growth will take place in Africa. Figure 5 indicates an interesting complementarity between the growth in Asia and Africa. As growth in one goes up, growth in the other goes down. By late next century, the Asian contribution will decrease to less than 30 percent while that of Africa will increase to nearly 55 percent. Twenty five years later, by 2110, the African contribution will decrease to 30 percent while that of Asia will increase once again to above 40 percent. The relative ranks will change once again later in that century. These fluctuations are essentially a reflection of the lag in the African demographic transition. The Country Departments within the Africa region are fairly homogeneous; so are the country departments in the Latin American region. As noted above, the European countries in the EMENA region are very much different from the rest of the region. In Asia, China stands at one extreme with the lowest growth rate, and the department constituting Bangladesh, Nepal, and Sri Lanka stands at the other end with the highest growth rate. At the national level: o China has the largest population. o India makes the largest annual contribution to the world's population growth. o Kenya and Rwanda have the highest fertility rates. o Qatar has the highest growth rate. o Sierra Leone has the lowest expectation of life at birth. o Sierra Leone has the highest infant mortality rate. The projections indicate that, as a result of differentials in growth, potential future demographic situations will be somewhat different. India will catch up with China in population size, and the annual population growth of Nigeria might overtake both India's and China's (Figure 6). The crude death rates in Nigeria and other African countries will fall below those of Asian and Latin American countries by 2025 because of younger age distribution, although their relative ranks with respect to life expectancy at birth remain the same. Fertility rates will be relatively low and near replacement level in most countries, and much of the growth will be a reflection of past demographic momentum. Consistency of the Projections Consistency over time. The first set of Bank population projects were published in the World Development Report 1978, ten years ago. How do these and other earlier projections compare with more recent attempts? Table 6 gives a brief comparison of the results of the projections made in 1980 and 1987 for world regions and selected large countries. It shows that the global estimate made in 1987 is higher than that made in 1980 due to upward revisions for Africa and Asia. On the other hand, population totals Cf the Americas or Europe were revised downward. 12 The upward revisions in Africa were a general phenomenon; almost all countries in the Sub-Saharan region were involved in the increase. Thus the Bank's assessment of the population growth potential has been revised upward in the case of Africa during the last ten years. The present assessment is based on the assumption that family planning will catch up soon in most of these countries and fertility will start declining before the end of the century. It is also assumed that once fertility starts declining, it will continue to decline rather rapidly. The earlier projections were revised upward because the evidence in recent years indicates that fertility decline did not begin as early as was assumed in the earlier projections. If family planning does not catch up or does not result in fertility reductions, the present projections will have to be revised upward once again. In the case of Latin America, the fertility rate for 1985-90 is revised downward; the actual fertility decline was larger than previously projected. In Asia, a significant revision was made in China's growth prospects. In the last few years, China's fertility has declined so fast. that demographers generally believe that fertility will remain below replacement level for a long time. On that basis, it could be projected that China's population growth will be overtaken by India by the middle of the next century and the ultimate stationary population of China will be substantially smaller than India's. But recent revival in China's birth rate makes this less likely. In this projection, India and China end up with more or less the same long-term stationary population (see Figure 6). There are upward revisions in a number of other countries also but these were more due to revisions in the 1985 total populations than in assumptions about future trends. For Burkina Faso, the 1985 population was revised upward from 6.7 to 7.9 million on the basis of new census results. In Pakistan, the base population was raised from 93.4 million to 96.2 million by the Statistical Office, with consequent changes in future population. In general, inconsistencies between recent and past Bank projections are mainly due to revisions in base population as a result of better and newer information from censuses and surveys. Consistency with U.N. projections. How do the Bank estimates and projections compare with the U.N. figures? Appendix Table B gives a comparison of the total population of selected countries in 1985, 2000 and 2025 according to these projections and the U.N. 1984 revision, which is the latest available. The Bank and the U.N. make an earnest effort to coordinate their work in projections and to reduce the discrepancies as much as possible. Therefore, there should not be much difference between' the two sets. Yet, some differences persist. For 28 countries out of a total of 148 countries in Appendix Table B, there was no difference at all in the 1985 total 13 population, and the difference was less than 1 percent in 53 other countries. Among countries with a population of 10 million or more, the difference was more than 5 percent only for Afghanistan. Thus, the difference between the Bank and the U.N. is confined to a few countries. The reasons for persisting differences are several. The Bank revises its base data on a continuous basis, makes population estimates and projections annually and publishes the results with little delay. On the other hand, the U.N. updates its work only once every two years, and although their results are issued as computer printouts to selected organizations, the full report is published with much delay. For some countries, the two organizations have their own special reasons to follow specific population figures. For example, for Namibia the U.N. is required to use the estimate provided by the Namibia Commissioner. For Nigeria, the Bank staff felt it necessary to use the official estimate provided by the country. Yet another source of difference is the way information regarding the degree of underenumeration (or overenuneration) in census results is treated. Usually, the U.N. estimates imply an assumption of a higher level of underenumeration than the Bank's estimates. While the Bank uses results of Post Enumeration Surveys or other direct assessments of underenumeration, it does not usually correct population totals on the basis of evaluation of age-sex distribution alone, unless the outcome of such evaluation has been accepted by national authorities. In the majority of the countries where the differences are small, the discrepancy is due to differences in the assumptions about post-censal fertility rates, mortality rates, and migration rates. The differences in the projected totals are usually larger than those in the base population and tend to increase with the period of projection. Part of the differences in the projected populations is due to difference in the base values, and the balance due to differences in methodology and assumptions about fertility, mortality, and migration trends. An approximate analysis indicates that about a third of the variance in percent difference between the two sets of projections in 2000 is explained by the difference in base total population; differences in TFR and life expectancy at birth having only a marginal significance. For 2025 and later periods, base values become less relevant and assumptions about fertility and mortality trends become more and more important. The methodological differences are in the use of different model life tables (the Bank uses Coale-Demeny tables while the U.N. uses U.N. and a variety of other models); different peri ods for which projections are made (the Bank projects from 1985 to 2150 and the U.N. projects from 1950 to 2025); and different assumptions about trends in fertility (e.g., the Bank assumes that fertility increases to replacement level in developed countries) and mortality (the Bank assumes a relatively slower increase in life expectancy at birth). But the net effect of methodological differences is not large. On the whole, differences Ln the Bank and the U.N. projections are essentially due to differences in the base total population. 14. If these are made to agree, there will be very little difference in the projections, at least for the short to medium periods. Conclusion World Bank population projections, published annually in its World Development Reports, and biannually in separate book form have become not only the Bank's official population figures for its sectoral, project and analytical work, but also an up-to-date source of demographic data for the international community of demographers, other social scientists, national planners, and students of population sciences. The Bank's publications in this field have some relative merits and some relative disadvantages over those of the U.N. Advantages include frequent revision and data input from Bank economists and project officers who are in constant contact with national officials. These publications also cover short-term and long-term projections prepared on the basis of the same methodology. Their main drawback is that so far the Bank publications do not include historical series to go with future series. In the coming years it is expected that historical series will also be provided in one form or another. 15 Table 1. Annual Increment in Female Life Expectancy Female primary school enrollment Female life Less than 70 percent expectancy at birth 70 percent or more 35.0 0.33 0.39 37.5 0.35 0.44 40.0 0.38 0.47 42.5 0.41 0.50 45.0 0.43 0.52 47.5 0.45 0.53 50.0 0.47 0.54 52.5 0.47 0.54 55.0 0.48 0.53 57.5 0.48 0.51 60.0 0.47 0.48 62.5 0.45 0.45 65.0 0.41 0.41 67.5 0.36 0.36 69.4 0.31 0.31 71.1 0.27 0.27 72.6 0.23 0.23 73.9 0.20 0.20 75.0 0.16 0.16 75.9 0.13 0.13 76.6 0.11 0.11 77.5 0.09 0.09 78.5 0.07 0.07 79.5 0.06 0.06 ,80.5 0.05 0.05 81.5 0.04 0.04 82.5 0.03 0.03 Table 2. Population Growth by Geographic Region, 1985-2025 Population Growth rate Birth rate Death rate (millions) (percent) (per 1,000) (per 1,000) Region 1985 2025 1985-90 2020-25 1985-90 2020-25 1985-90 2020-25 World 4,840 8,188 1.71 0.94 26.9 17.6 9.8 8.2 Africa 560 1,495 3.05 1.74 45.0 24.1 14.5 6.7 Asia 2,819 4,758 1.80 0.89 27.4 17.0 9.2 8.1 Americas 666 1,035 1.58 0.72 23.4 15.3 7.9 8.2 Europe 770 863 0.45 0.15 14.7 13.0 10.3 11.5 Oceania 25 36 1.37 0.59 19.6 15.0 8.2 9.1 Note: In this and succeeding tables, figures may not add up to given totals because of rounding. 16 Table 3. Year in Which World Population Reached 1 Billion, 2 Billion, Etc. Elapsed World population Year years 1 billion 1805 indefinite 2 billion 1926 121 3 billion 1960 34 4 billion 1974 14 5 billion 1987 13 6 billion 1998 11 7 billion 2010 12 8 billion 2023 13 9 billion 2040 17 10 billion 2070 30 Table 4.-Demographic Situation in World Bank Regions and Departments, 1985-90 Population Total Life Infant (thousands) Birth Death Growth fertility expec- mortality Region 1985 rate rate rate rate tancy rate Africa 414,301 48.1 15.8 3.21 6.6 51 108 1 39,335 47.2 15.5 3.25 6.2 52 104 2 105,661 48.4 16.3 3.18 6.7 50 110 3 52,349 46.2 14.8 3.13 6.4 52 101 4 119,234 49.0 15.4 3.36 6.8 51 104 5 36,140 47.7 19.1 2.76 6.5 46 129 6 61,559 48.1 15.1 3.29 6.7 52 104 Asia 2,379,281 26.6 9.1 1.75 3.3 63 66 1 134,196 37.8 14.2 2.33 5.1 52 113 2 272,575 28.9 7.8 2.07 3.6 64 56 3 1,040,035 20.7 6.6 1.40 2.3 69 33 4 765,147 30.9 11.3 1.95 4.2 57 84 5 167,328 31.1 11.4 1.97 3.9 56 90 EMENA 476,571 34.3 11.0 2.32 4.7 61 82 1 146,428 39.3 12.1 2.69 5.3 56 95 2 55,095 36.8 9.2 2.76 5.2 62 73 3 170,439 40.1 11.3 2.91 5:7 58 87 4 104,609 15.2 9.9 0.52 2.0 72 24 LAC 387,147 29.2 7.4 2.11 3.7 66 56 1 135,564 28.0 7.5 2.05 3.4 65 63 2 103,986 32.8 6.5 2.45 4.2 66 49 3 70,264 29.6 7.4 2108 3.6 65 60 4 77,333 26.3 8.5 1.78 3.4 67 51 Note: See Table 17 for countries in each Bank region and department. 17 Table 5. Demographic Trends in World Bank Regions and Departments Stationary Population population (thousands) - Year when ------------------------------ in as % of population Year when Region 1985 2000 2025 millions 1985 pop doubles NRR=l Africa 414,278 661,499 1,178,894 2,072 500 2007 2045 1 39,335 61,898 106,184 180 458 2010 2045 2 105,661 168,268 299,991 533 504 2009 2040 3 52,349 82,723 145,498 250 478 2009 2045 4 119,234 193,957 350,739 619 519 2008 2045 5 36,140 55,186 97,518 179 495 2010 2040 6 61,559 99,466 178,964 312 507 2007 2040 Asia 2,379,281 3,038,550 3,908,140 4,768 Z00 2140 2040 1 134,196 186,085 274,416 403 300 2023 2040 2 272,575 362,794 491,366 625 229 2040 2040 3 1,040,035 1,274,411 1,537,267 1,683 162 (a) 2000 4 765,147 995,793 1,311,746 1,678 219 2051 2010 5 167,328 219,467 293,344 379 227 2045 2035 EMENA 476,571 664,354 984,023 1,433 301 2023 2040 1 146,428 212,966 330,820 507 346 2017 2035 2 55,095 81,591 126,473 183 332 2015 2025 3 170,439 257,436 406,313 617 362 2014 2045 4 104,609 112,642 120,799 126 120 (a) 2020 LAC 387,147 516,348 700,156 887 229 2039 2025 1 135,564 178,369 236,116 292 215 2052 2010 2 103,986 145,844 208,095 273 263 2025 2025 3 70,264 93,465 127,399 162 231 2039 2025 4 77,333 98,669 128,546 159 206 2080 2020 Note: See Table 17 for countries in each Bank region and department. (a) Population will not double with projected rates. 18 Table 6. Population in 2000 and Stationary Population by Region and for Selected Countries, from World Bank Projections of 1980 and 1987 (millions) Projection of 1980 Projection of 1987 Population Stationary Population Stationary Region in 2000 population in 2000 population World 6,075 9,867 6,176 10,650 Africa 805 2,071 871 2,531 Americas 847 1,267 824 1,216 Asia 3,561 5,569 3,634 5,974 Europe, USSR, Oceania 862 960 847 929 Selected countries China 1,251 1,555 1,274 1,683 India 973 1,644 996 1,678 Indonesia 203 350 212 363 Brazil 201 345 178 292 Nigeria 153 425 163 529 19 Table 7. Population and Percentage Distribution by Geographic Region and Income Group, 1985-2100 Population (millions) Percentage of world population Region 1985 1990 2000 2025 2050 2100 1985 1990 2000 2025 2050 2100 World total 4,840 5,272 6,176 8,188 9,523 10,414 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Less developed (a) 3,663 4,062 4,913 6,850 8,190 9,068 75.7 77.0 79.5 83.7 86.0 87.1 More developed (a) 1,177 1,210 1,263 1,338 1,-333 1,347 24.3 23.0 20.5 16.3 14.0 12.9 Africa total 560 653 871 1,495 2,020 2,429 11.6 12.4 14.1 18.3 21.2 23.3 East Africa 232 271 365 636 867 1,048 4.8 5.1 5.9 7.8 9.1 10.1 West Africa 203 239 324 577 797 977 4.2 4.5 5.2 7.0 8.4 9.4 North Africa 125 143 182 282 356 404 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.4 3.7 3.9 America total 666 721 824 1,035 1,144 1,201 13.8 13.7 13.3 12.6 12.0 11.5 Latin America and Caribbean 398 442 529 715 829 888 8.2 8.4 8.6 8.7 8.7 8.5 North America 268 279 295 320 315 313 5.5 5.3 4.8 3.9 3.3 3.0 Asia total 2,819 3,085 3,634 4,758 5,452 5,857 58.2 58.5 58.8 58.1 57.3 56.2 East and Southeast Asia 1,646 1,775 2,042 2,522 2,748 2,861 34.0 33.7 33.1 30.8 28.9 27.5 South Asia 1,058 1,178 1,423 1,977 2,379 2,629 21.9 22.3 23.0 24.1 25.0 25.2 Southwest Asia 115 132 169 259 325 367 2.4 2.5 2.7 3.2 3.4 3.5 Europe total 770 787 818 863 867 885 15.9 14.9 13.2 10.5 9.1 8.5 Oceania total 25 26 29 36 39 41 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 Income group (b) Low 2,442 2,692 3,221 4,403 5,215 5,761 50.5 51.1 52.2 53.8 54.8 55.3 Lower-middle 680 767 955 1,415 1,751 1,970 14.0 14.5 15.5 17.3 18.4 18.9 Upper-middle 594 652 772 1,029 1,190 1,281 12.3 12.4 12.5 12.6 12.5 12.3 High (oil exporters) 19 23 33 56 74 87 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 Industrial-market 742 759 786 814 788 777 15.3 14.4 12.7 9.9 8.3 7.5 Non-reporting non-member 363 379 409 470 505 538 7.5 7.2 6.6 5.7 5.3 5.2 (a) "More developed" includes Europe, USSR, North America (United States and Canada), Australia, New Zealand, and Japan. "Less developed" includes the rest of the world. (b) Countries are listed by income group in Table 16. 20 Table 8. Annual Population Increase and Growth Rate by Geographic Region and Income Group, 1985-2100 Annual population increase (millions) Annual growth rate (percent) Region 1985-90 2000 2025 2050 2100 1985-90 2000 2025 2050 2100 World total 86.4 88.4 71.5 39.0 6.8 1.71 1.44 0.88 0.41 0.07 Less developed (a) 79.9 83.7 70.2 39.3 6.8 2.07 1.71 1.03 0.48 0.08 More developed (a) 6.5 4.7 1.3 -0.3 0.0 0.54 0.37 0.10 -0.02 0.00 Africa total 18.4 23.6 24.3 17.8 2.3 3.05 2.72 1.64 0.88 0.10 East Africa 7.8 10.2 10.7 7.9 1.0 3.12 2.80 1.68 0.91 0.10 West Africa 7.1 9.3 10.1 7.7 1.0 3.20 2.89 1.76 0.96 0.10 North Africa 3.6 4.1 3.6 2.3 0.4 2.66 2.24 1.27 0.64 0.09 America total 10.9 9.8 6.7 2.6 0.7 1.58 1.19 0.66 0.23 0.06 Latin America and Caribbean 8.7 8.4 6.4 2.8 0.7 2.08 1.60 0.90 0.34 0.08 North America 2.2 1.3 0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.80 0.46 0.10 -0.07 0.00 Asia total 53.2 52.0 39.2 18.5 3.5 1.80 1.44 0.83 0.34 0.06 East, Southeast Asia 25.9 24.1 15.7 4.8 0.9 1.51- 1.19 0.63 0.18 0.03 South Asia 24.0 24.1 20.2 11.5 2.4 2.15 1.70 1.03 0.49 0.09 Southwest Asia 3.4 3.8 3.2 2.0 0.3 2.73 2.26 1.26 0.62 0.09 Europe total 3.5 2.8 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.45 0.34 0.12 0.00 0.00 Oceania total 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.37 0.98 0.53 0.19 0.04 Income group (b) Low 49.7 51.5 43.1 23.7 3.7 1.94 1.61 0.99 0.46 0.07 Lower-middle 17.4 19.2 16.9 10.0 1.8 2.41 2.02 1.20 0.57 0.09 Upper-middle 11.7 11.6 8.7 4.3 0.9 1.87 1.51 0.85 0.37 0.07 High(oil exporters) 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.1 3.90 3.00 1.49 0.84 0.08 Industrial market 3.5 2.2 -0.1 -1.0 0.0 0.47 0.28 -0.02 -0.13 0.00 Non-reporting non-member 3.2 2.9 2.0 1.1 0.2 0.88 0.72 0.43 0.23 0.05 (a) "More developed" includes Europe, USSR, North America (United States and Canada), Australia, New Zealand, and Japan. "Less developed" includes the rest of the world. (b) Countries are listed by income group in Table 16. Table 9. Estimated Fertility and Mortality Rates by Geographic Region and Income Group, 1985-90, 2000, and 2025 1985-90 2000 2025 Region CBR CDR TFR NRR eO IMR CBR CDR TFR NRR eO IMR CBR CDR TFR NRR eO IMR World total 26.9 9.8 3.417 1.441 64.4 71 23.1 8.7 2.938 1.291 67.1 52 17.1 8.4 2.260 1.056 71.9 28 Less developed (a) 30.8 9.9 3.910 1.600 61.4 75 25.5 8.4 3.175 1.365 65.0 57 18.0 7.7 2.290 1.065 70.8 31 More developed (a) 14.5 9.6 1.885 0.914 74.3 18 13.4 9.9 1.953 0.933 75.5 14 12.7 11.8 2.071 1.000 77.4 10 Africa total 45.0 14.5 6.170 2.310 52.9 101 37.9 10.7 5.135 2.080 58.3 77 22.9 6.6 2.635 1.205 67.4 41 East Africa 46.3 15.1 6.340 2.340 51.8 103 39.1 11.1 5.290 2.125 57.2 80 23.4 6.6 2.670 1.220 67.0 43 West Africa 48.3 16.3 6.600 2.400 50.2 110 40.8 11.9 5.665 2.250 56.1 83 24.3 6.7 2.760 1.250 66.2 44 North Africa 37.1 10.5 5.150 2.100 59.4 78 30.3 7.9 3.960 1.720 64.2 55 19.0 6.3 2.270 1.065 70.8 28 America total 23.4 7.9 2.850 1.320 70.1 44 19.2 7.4 2.430 1.160 72.0 34 15.0 8.5 2.085 1.000 75.1 21 Latin America and Caribbean 28.9 7.4 3.630 1.620 66.3 56 22.7 6.4 2.725 1.265 69.4 42 16.3 7.3 2.095 1.000 73.5 25 North America 14.9 8.6 1.820 0.880 76.0 12 12.9 9.0 1.890 0.915 76.7 10 12.3 11.4 2.065 1.000 78.7 7 Asia total 27.4 9,2 3.450 1.440 63.1 69 22.6 8.2 2.780 1.215 66.4 51 16.5 8.3 2.195 1.025 71.7 27 East, Southeast Asia 22.6 7.3 2.670 1.200 67.9 45 19.1 7.2 2.325 1.070 70.5 32 15.0 8.7 2.110 1.000 74.3 18 South Asia 33.8 ii.2 4.660 1.790 55.8 94 26.7 9.6 3.350 1.380 60.5 7? 1R-7 8.0 2.275 1.040 68.4 37 Southwest Asia 35.6 8.7 4.930 2.110 63.4 63 29.3 6.9 3.815 1.710 67.1 48 18.9 6.3 2.265 1.065 71.9 27 Europe total 14.7 10.3 1.940 0.934 73.2 22 13.7 10.4 1.984 0.945 74.6 17 13.0 11.8 2.074 1.000 76.5 11 Oceania total 19.6 8.2 2.480 1.120 71.6 41 18.0 8.4 2.390 1.120 72.9 32 14.7 9.4 2.165 1.035 75.7 17 Income group (b) Low 29.8 10.2 3.760 1.520 61.0 79 24.9 8.9 3.095 1.315 64.5 61 24.9 8.1 2.320 1.070 70.4 33 Lower-middle 34.9 10.4 4.530 1.840 59.3 79 28.4 8.1 3.525 1.525 63.9 58 18.9 6.9 2.300 1.080 10.5 30 UJpper-middle 27.0 8.0 3.420 1.540 67.0 47 22.3 7.1 2.800 1.300 69.7 35 16.2 7.7 2.105 1.005 73.6 19 High(oil exporters) 40.4 7.1 6.700 2.930 64.2 54 34.6 5.7 5.230 2.390 67.8 39 20.4 5.5 2.345 1.115 72.6 21 Industrial market 13.2 9.2 1.710 0.830 76.3 11 12.4 9.9 1.834 0.893 77.0 9 12.1 12.3 2.066 1.000 78.7 7 Non-reporting non-member 18.9 10.1 2.430 4.000 69.9 38 16.9 9.8 2.325 1.100 71.7 31 14.8 10.5 2.140 1.020 74.3 19 (a) "More developed" includes Europe, USSR, North America (United States and Canada), Australia, New Zealand, and Japan. "Less developed" includes the rest of the world. (b) Countries are listed by income group in Table 16. 22 Table 10. Population and Percentage Distribution by Bank Region, 1985-2100 Population (millions) Percentage of world population Region 1985 1990 2000 2025 2050 2100 1985 1990 2000 2025 2050 2100 World total 4,840 5,272 6,176 8,188 9,523 10,414 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Borrowers and non-borrowers Sub-Saharan Africa 457 535 722 1,272 1,744 2,122 9.4 10.1 11.7 15.5 18.3 20.4 Asia and Pacific 2,570 2,795 3,254 4,144 4,654 4,927 53.1 53.0 52.7 50.6 48.9 47.3 EMENA 1,147 1,221 1,376 1,736 1,981 2,165 23.7 23.2 22.3 21.2 20.8 20.8 America 666 721 824 1,035 1,144 1,201 13.8 13.7 13.3 12.6 12.0 11.5 Borrowers only Sub-Saharan Africa total 414 486 661 1,179 1,625 1,985 8.6 9.2 10.7 14.4 17.1 19.1 CD I (West - Francophone) 39 46 62 106 144 173 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.7 CD II (East) 106 124 168 300 415 509 2.2 2.4 2.7 3.7 4.4 4.9 CD III (Central) 52 61 83 145 198 239 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.8 2.1 2.3 CD IV (West - Others) 119 141 194 351 485 594 2.5 2.7 ' 3.1 4.3 5.1 5.7 CD V (Sahel) 36 41 55 98 136 170 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.6 CD VI (Southern) 62 73 99 179 247 300 1.3 1.4 1.6 2.2 2.6 2.9 Asia and Pacific total 2,379 2,597 3,038 3,908 4,413 4,683 49.2 49.3 49.2 47.7 46.3 45.0 CI I (Other South) 134 151 186 274 342 388 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.3 3.6 3.7 CD II (Southeast) 273 302 363 492 568 612 5.6 5.7 5.9 6.0 6.0 5.9 CD III (China) 1,040 1,116 1,274 1,537 1,637 1,683 21.5 21.2 20.6 18.8 17.2 16.2 CD IV (India) 765 843 996 1,312 1,525 1,635 15.8 16.0 16.1 16.0 16.0 15.7 CD V (Indonesia & Pacific) 167 185 219 293 341 365 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.5 EMENA total 476 535 664 984 1,225 1,393 9.8 10.1 10.8 12.0 12.9 13.4 CD I (P&kistan & Turkey) 146 167 213 332 423 491 3.0 3.2 3.4 4.1 4.4 4.7 CD II (North Africa) 55 63 82 126 159 178 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.7 CD III (Middle East) 170 198 257 406 521 598 3.5 3.8 4.2 5.0 5.5 5.7 CD IV (Europe) 105 107 112 120 122 126 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.5 1.3 1.2 LAC total 387 430 516 700 813 872 8.0 8.2 8.4 8.5 8.5 8.4 CD I (Brazil) 136 150 178 236 269 287 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 CD II (Central) 104 117 146 208 249 269 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.6 CD III (Caribbean & Others) 70 78 93 127 148 159 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.5 CD IV (Temperate & Tropical) 77 85 99 129 147 157 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 Note: See Table 17 for countries in each Bank region and department. 23 Table 11. Annual Population Increase and Growth Rate by Bank Region, 1985-2100 Annual population increase (millions) Annual growth rate (percent) Region 1985-90 2000 2025 2050 2100 1985-90 2000 2025 2050 2100 World total 86.4 88.4 71.5 39.0 6.8 1.71 1.44 0.88 0.41 0.07 Borrowers and non-borrowers Sub-Saharan Africa 15.6 20.4 21.7 16.5 2.1 3.14 2.84 1.72 0.94 0.10 Asia and Pacific 45.2 42.7 30.4 12.3 2.7 1.69 1.12 0.74 0.27 0.06 EMENA 14.7 15.5 12.6 7.6 1.3 1.25 1.13 0.73 0.39 0.06 America 10.9 9.8 6.7 2.6 0.7 1.58 1.19 0.66 0.23 0.06 Borrowers only Sub-Saharan Africa total 14.4 19.1 20.6 15.5 1.9 3.21 2.90 1.76 0.96 0.10 CD I (West - Francophone) 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.3 0.2 3.25 2.69 1.61 0.90 0.10 CD II (East) 3.6 4.9 5.3 4.0 0.5 3.18 2.90 1.77 0.96 0.10 CD III (Central) 1.8 2.3 2.4 1.8 0.2 3.13 2.84 1.69 0.92 0.09 CD IV (West - Others) 4.3 5.8 6.3 4.8 0.5 3.36 3.01 1.80 0.97 0.10 CD V (Sahel) 1.1 1.5 1.7 1.3 0.2 2.76 2.75 1.79 0.99 0.11 CD VI (Southern) 2.2 2.9 3.2 2.3 0.3 3.29 2.97 1.77 0.95 0.09 Asia and Pacific total 43.4 41.2 29.9 12.4 2.6 1.75 1.37 0.77 0.28 0.06 CI I (Other South) 3.3 3.7 3.1 2.0 0.4 2.33 1.99 1.15 0.59 0.10 CD II (Southeast) 5.9 5.8 4.4 1.9 0.5 2.07 1.62 0.90 0.34 0.09 CD III (China) 15.1 13.7 8.4 1.8 0.0 1.40 1.09 0.55 0.11 0.00 CD IV (India) 15.6 14.6 11.4 5.5 1.4 1.95 1.48 0.87 0.36 0.09 CD V (Indonesia & Pacific) 3.5 3.4 2.6 1.2 0.3 1.97 1.54 0.90 0.35 0.08 EMENA total 11.7 13.1 11.7 7.7 1.2 2.32 1.99 1.19 0.62 0.09 CD I (Pakistan & Turkey) 4.2 4.6 4.5 3.1 0.4 2.69 2.16 1.36 0.73 0.08 CD II (North Africa) 1.6 1.9 1.6 0.9 0.2 2.76 2.32 1.24 0.59 0.10 CD III (Middle East) 5.3 6.2 5.4 '.6 0.6 2.91 2.42 1.33 0.69 0.10 CD IV (Europe) 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.52 0.42 0.15 0.05 0.03 LAC total 8.6 8.3 6.3 2.8 0.7 2.11 1.62 0.91 0.35 0.08 CD I (Brazil) 2.9 2.7 1.9 0.8 0.3 2.05 1.51 0.83 0.32 0.09 CD II (Central) 2.7 2.8 2.2 1.0 0.2 2.45 1.93 1.08 0.41 0.09 CD III (Caribbean & Others) 1.5 1.5 1.2 0.5 0.1 2.08 1.61 0.92 0.36 0.07 CD IV (Temperate & Tropical) 1.5 1.3 1.0 0.5 0.1 1.78 1.40 0.79 0.33 0.06 Note: See Table 17 for countries in each Bank region and department. Table 12. Estimated Fertility and Mortality Rates by Bank Region, 1985-2025 1985-90 2000 2025 Region CBR CDR TFR URR e0 IMR CBR CDR TFR NRR eo IMR CBR CDR TFR NRR e0 IMR World total 26.9 9.8 3.417 1.441 64.4 71 23.1 8.7 2.938 1.291 67.1 52 17.1 8.4 2.260 1.056 71.9 28 Borrowers and non-borrowers Sub-Saharan Africa 47.2 15.7 6.465 2.369 51.0 107 39.9 11.5 5.467 2.180 56.6 82 23.9 6.6 2.715 1.234 66.6 44 Asia and Pacific 25.8 8.9 3.219 1.360 63.8 64 21.3 8.0 2.593 1.148 67.1 47 15.9 8.5 2.145 1.006 72.2 25 EMENA 23.1 10.6 3.064 1.343 68.1 60 20.9 9.6 2.868 1.297 69.8 47 16.5 9.2 2.247 1.054 73.0 26 America 23.4 7.9 2.853 1.320 70.1 44 19.2 7.4 2.432 1.158 72.0 34 15.0 8.5 2.089 1.002 75.1 21 Borrowers only Sub-Saharan Africa total 48.1 15.8 6.624 2.421 50.7 108 40.6 11.6 5.609 2.233 56.4 82 24.1 6.6 2.738 1.244 66.5 44 CD I (West - Francophone) 47.2 15.5 6.231 2.324 52.1 104 37.9 11.2 5.406 2.229 57.7 75 22.8 6.6 2.588 1.191 67.5 40 CD II (East) 48.4 16.3 6.739 2.413 49.6 110 41.1 12.1 5.679 2.223 55.2 86 24.5 6.9 2.789 1.254 65.6 46 CD III (Central) 46.2 14.8 6.411 2.398 52.0 101 39.1 10.7 5.371 2.174 57.8 77 23.1 6.2 2.624 1.209 67.7 39 CD IV (West - Others) 49.0 15.4 6.811 2.513 51.1 104 41.1 11.0 5.680 2.281 57.1 78 24.2 6.2 2.735 1.252 67.1 40 CD V (Salhel) 47.7 19.1 6.501 2.215 46.5 129 42.5 14.5 5.877 2.189 52.0 100 25.9 8.0 2.974 1.296 62.8 57 CD VI (Southern) 48.1 15.1 6.689 2.466 52.1 104 40.6 11.0 5.557 2.232 57.7 82 23.9 6.3 2.717 1.241 67.4 44 Asia and Pacifig total 26.6 9.1 3.312 1.385 62.9 66 21.7 8.1 2.629 1.158 66.5 49 16.1 8.4 2.149 1.006 71.9 25 CI I (Other South) 37.8 14.2 5.124 1.847 52.4 113 31.0 11.1 3.786 1.486 56.9 90 19.5 8.0 2.363 1.056 65.9 47 CD 11 (Southeast) 28.9 7.8 3.600 1.570 64.3 56 23.1 6.7 2.774 1.268 68.0 40 16.5 7.5 2.127 1.010 72.5 23 CD III (China) 20.7 6.6 2.350 1.068 69.5 33 17.8 7.0 2.140 1.000 71.8 25 14.4 8.9 2.099 1.000 75.2 15 CD IV (India) 30.9 11.3 4.249 1.666 57.1 84 23.9 9.2 2.954 1.252 62.0 62 16.9 8.2 2.159 1.000 69.5 31 CD V (Indonesia & Pacific) 31.1 11.4 3.925 1.567 56.1 90 24.3 8.9 2.857 1.228 61.9 62 17.0 8.0 2.149 1.004 69.8 30 PHENA total 34.3 11.0 4.668 1.919 60.9 82 28.6 8.8 3.792 1.635 64.4 62 19.2 7.3 2.351 1.084 70.1 34 CD I (Pakistan & Turkey) 39.3 12.1 5.345 2.046 56.4 95 31.0 9.4 4.079 1.677 60.5 74 20.7 7.1 2.520 1.152 68.1 38 CD 11 (North Africa) 36.8 9.2 5.223 2.192 61.6 73 30.1 6.8 3.880 1.736 66.0 47 18.2 5.8 2.155 1.023 72.0 23 CDP II (Middle East) 40.1 11.3 5.690 2.265 58.3 87 32.5 8.4 4.358 1.856 63.1 66 20.0 6.7 2.339 1.067 69.6 38 Cu IV (IKrop") 15.2 9.9 2.046 0.968 71.8 24 14.3 10.1 1.980 0.947 73.5 19 13.2 11.7 2.087 1.000 75.6 13 IAC total 29.2 7.4 3.675 1.641 66.0 56 22.8 6.4 2.745 1.273 69.3 42 16.3 7.2 2.097 1.003 73.4 25 CD I (Brazil) 28.0 7.5 3.415 1.531 65.3 63 21.6 6.6 2.602 1.209 68.8 48 16.0 7.7 2.090 1.000 73.1 28 CD II (Central) 32.8 6.5 4.243 1.913 66.5 49 25.2 5.4 2.950 1.374 69.7 35 16.9 6.1 2.090 1.001 73.7 22 CD II (Caribbean & Others) 29.6 7.4 3.642 1.588 65.3 60 23.0 6.5 2.741 1.250 68.5 42 16.4 7.3 2.129 1.013 72.9 26 CD IV (Tvmperate & Tropical) 26.3 8.5 3.423 1.542 67.2 51 21.5 7.5 2.698 1.251 70.0 35 15.9 8.0 2.092 1.000 73.8 18 Note: See Table 1 for countries in each Bank region and department . a 25 Table 13. Stationary Population by Geographic Region and for Countries of 100 Million or More Population Percentage within Percentage of Country (millions) geographic region world population Africa (all countries) 2,531 100.0 23.8 Nigeria 529 20.9 5.0 Ethiopia 204 8.1 1.9 Egypt 132 5.2 1.2 Zaire 130 5.1 1.2 Tanzania 123 4.9 1.2 Kenya 121 4.8 1.1 Sudan 101 4.0 0.9 Subtotal (7 countries) 1,340 52.9 12.6 Asia (all countries) 5,974 100.0 56.1 China 1,683 28.2 15.8 India 1,678 28.1 15.8 Pakistan 395 6.6 3.7 Indonesia 363 6.1 3.4 Bangladesh 295 4.9 2.8 Viet Nam 167 2.8 1.6 Iran 157 2.6 1.5 Philippines 137 2.3 1.3 Japan 124 2.1 1.2 Turkey 111 1.9 1.0 Subtotal (10 countries) 5,110 85.5 48.0 Latin America (all countries) 903 100.0 8.5 Brazil 292 32.3 2.7 Mexico 197 21.8 1.8 Subtotal (2 countries) 489 54.2 4.6 North America (all countries) 313 100.0 2.9 United States 279 89.1 2.6 Europe 503 100.0 4.7 USSR 385 100.0 3.6 Oceania 41 100.0 0.4 World total 10,650 -- 100.0 Subtotal (21 countries with population of 100 million or more) 7,603 -- 71.4 -- Not applicable. 26 Table 14. 3S:;ionary Population for All Countries Stationary Year Stationary Year population when population when Country (millions) NRR=l Country (millions) NRR=1 Africa Mauritania 8 2035 Botswana 5 2025 Niger 36 2040 Burundi 24 2035 Nigeria 529 2035 Comoros 2 2030 Sao Tome and Principe 0.3 2020 Djibouti 2 2045 Senegal 31 2035 Ethiopia 204 2040 Sierra Leone 18 2045 Kenya 121 2030 Togo 15 2035 Lesotho 6 2030 Other West Africa 0.01 2010 Madagascar 52 2035 Malawi 38 2040 West Africa total 1,020 2045 Mauritius 2 2000 Mozambique 68 2035 Algeria 81 2025 Namibia 5 2035 Egypt, Arab Rep. 132 2020 Reunion 1 2000 Libya 18 2025 Rwanda 40 2040 Morocco 66 2025 Seychelles 0.1 2010 Sudan 101 2035 Somalia 30 2040 Tunisia 18 2015 South Africa 95 2025 Other North Africa 0.8 2035 Swaziland 3 2030 Tanzania 123 2035 North Africa total 416 2035 Uganda 74 2035 Zaire 130 2030 Africa total 2,531 2045 Zambia 37 2035 Zimbabwe 33 2025 America East Africa total 1,095 2040 Antigua and Barbuda 0.2 2020 Argentina 53 2010 Angola 43 2040 Bahamas 0.5 2005 Benin 20 2035 Barbados 0.3 2020 Burkina Faso 42 2040 Belize 0.5 2015 Cameroon 51 2030 Bolivia 22 2030 Cape Verde 1 2025 Brazil 292 2010 Central African Rep. 12 2035 Chile 20 2000 Chad 22 2040 Colombia 59 2010 Congo, People's Rep. 9 2025 Costa Rica 5 2005 Cote d'Ivoire 46 2030 Cuba 14 2010 Equatorial Guinea 2 2040 Dominica 0.2 2005 Gabon 4 2035 Dominican Rep. 15. 2010 Gambia, The 3 2040 Ecuador 26 2015 Ghana 58 2030 El Salvador 13 2015 Guinea 28 2045 Grenada 0.2 2010 Guinea-Bissau 4 2045 Guadeloupe 0.5 2010 Liberia 11 2035 Guatemala 26 2020 Mali 36 2035 Guyana 1 2005 27 Table 14. Stationary Population for All Countries (cont.) Stationary Year Stationary Year population when population when Country (millions) NRR=1 Country (millions) NRR=1 Haiti 16 2025 Lao People's Dem. Rep. 17 2040 Honduras 15 2020 Macao 1 2005 Jamaica 4 2005 Malaysia 33 2005 Martinique 0.4 2000 Mongolia 6 2020 Mexico 197 2010 Philippines 137 2015 Montserrat 0.01 2015 Singapore 3 2010 Netherlands Antilles 0.3 2010 Thailand 99 2000 Nicaragua 12 2025 V:Let Nam 167 2015 Panama 4 2000 Paraguay 11 2020 East and Southeast Peru 45 2015 Asia total 2,889 2035 St. Kitts and Nevis 0.1 2015 St. Lucia 0.4 2015 Afghanistan 75 2045 St. Vincent and Grenadines 0.2 2010 Bangladesh 295 2025 Suriname 1 2010 Bhutan 4 2035 Trinidad and Tobago 2 2005 India 1,678 2010 Uruguay 4 2000 Iran, Islamic Rep. 157 2020 Virgin Islands (U.S.) 0.2 2005 Maldives 1 2035 Venezuela 39 2005 Nepal 73 2040 Other Latin America 0.3 2010 Fakistan 395 2035 Sri Lanka 31 2005 Latin America and the Caribbean total 903 2025 South Asia total 2,709 2040 Canada 29 2020 Bahrain 1 2010 United States (50 states) 279 2020 Cyprus 1 2000 Puerto Rico 5 2000 Gaza Strip 3 2040 Other North America 0.2 2020 Iraq 75 2025 Israel 7 2005 North America total 313 2020 Jordan 12 2020 Kuwait 4 2010 America total 1,216 2025 Lebanon 5 2010 0man 5 2030 Qatar 1 2030 Asia Saudia Arabia 61 2030 Brunei 0.5 2010 Syrian Arab Rep. 39 2020 Burma 87 2020 Turkey Z 111 2010 China (excl. Taiwan) (a) 1,683 2000 United Arab Emirates 3 2010 Hong Kong 7 2010 Yemen Arab Rep. 39 2040 Indonesia 363 2010 Yemen, People's Dem. Rep. 7 2035 Japan 124 2020 .Kampuchea, Dem. 20 2035 Southwest Asia total 376 2040 Korea, Dem. People's Rep. 46 2010 Korea, Rep. 65 1985 Asia total 5,974 2040 28 Table 14. Stationary Population for All Countries (cont.) Stationary Year Stationary Year population when population when Country (millions) MRR=l Country (millions) NRR=l Europe and U.S.S.R. Yugoslavia 27 2020 Albania 6 2005 Other Europe 0.4 2020 Austria 7 2020 U.S.S.R. 385 2020 Belgium 9 2020 Bulgaria 10 2020 Europe and U.S.S.R. total 888 2020 Channel Islands 0.1 2020 Czechoslovakia 18 2020 Denmark 4 2020 Oceania Finland 5 2020 Australia 20 2020 France 60 2020 Fiji 1 2015 Germany, Fed. Rep. 44 2020 French Polynesia 0.5 2015 Germany, Dem. Rep, 16 2020 Guam 0.3 2020 Greece 11 2020 Kirabati 0.2 2030 Hungary 10 2020 New Caledonia 0.3 2010 Iceland 0.3 2020 New Zealand 4 2020 Ireland 5 2020 Pacific Islands 0.4 2020 Italy 50 2020 Papua New Guinea 11 2030 Luxembourg 0.3 2020 Solomon Islands 1 2035 Malta 0.4 2020 Tonga 0.3 2030 Netherlands 13 2020 Vanuatu 0.6 2035 Norway 4 2020 Western Samoa 0.4 2015 Poland 48 2020 Other Micronesia 0.1 2020 Portugal 12 2020 Other Polynesia 0.2 2010 Romania 27 2020 Spain 46 2020 Oceania total 41 2035 Sweden 7 2020 Switzerland 6 2020 United Kingdom 55 2020 World total 10,650 2040 Note: Populations of more than 1 million have been rounded to the nearest million. (a) The data for Taiwan, China, are as follows: stationary population, 31 million; NRR 1 by 1985. The totals for East and Southeast Asia, Asia, and the world include Taiwan. 29 Table 15. Population Pro.ections for All Countries, 1985-2025 (thousands) Country 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Africa Botswana 1,070 1,259 1,480 1,712 1,954 2,202 2,452 2,690 2,903 Burundi 4,696 5,433 6,317 7,370 8,488 9,663 10,852 12,037 13,242 Comoros 454 545 649 754 887 1,013 1,141 1,270 1,394 Djibouti 339 398 470 551 644 747 859 975 1,093 Ethiopia 42,271 49,102 56,733 65,073 74,017 83,429 93,037 102,729 112,653 Kenya 20,375 24,947 30,333 36,452 43,110 49,875 56,566 63,340 69,875 Lesotho 1,545 1,765 2,024 2,302 2,600 2,903 3,209 3,522 3,823 Madagascar 10,212 11,990 14,033 16,330 18,868 21,560 24,222 26,965 29,687 Malawi 7,044 8,257 9,726 11,351 13,116 14,978 16,855 18,725 20,637 Mauritius 1,020 1,082 1,147 1,212 1,280 1,345 1,403 1,455 1,501 Mozambique 13,791 15,876 18,426 21,480 24,737 28,093 31,432 34,749 38,143 Namibia 1,127 1,314 1,522 1,749 1,993 2,249 2,503 2,765 3,028 Reunion 531 572 614 654 690 722 751 777 800 Rwanda 6,026 7,151 8,627 10,240 12,014 13,933 15,929 17,969 20,099 Seychelles 65 68 72 76 80 84 89 93 98 Somalia 5,384 6,238 7,278 8,462 9,795 11,248 12,769 14,247 15,774 South Africa 32,432 36,516 40,707 45,008 49,409 53,877 58,292 62,426 66,144 Swaziland 757 902 1,052 1,211 1,383 1,566 1,752 -1,935 2,104 Tanzania 22,242 26,574 31,541 37,046 43,076 49,473 55,768 62,346 68,998 Uganda 14,680 17,237 20,132 23,374 26,944 30,692 34,359 38,182 42,005 Zaire 30,557 35,632 41,268 47,392 53,884 60,453 66,980 73,591 79,885 Zambia 6,704 8,001 9,483 11,126 12,922 14,820 16,695 18,657 20,608 Zimbabwe 8,406 9,947 11,562 13,238 14,993 16,797 18,580 20,254 21,748 East Africa total 231,728 270,807 315,195 364,174 416,884 471,723 526,495 581,701 636,241 Angola 8,754 10,015 11,558 13,266 15,115 17,075 19,094 21,036 23,030 Benin 4,043 4,758 5,572 6,474 7,447 8,465 9,467 10,511 11,563 Burkina Faso 7,885 9,054 10,487 12,101 13,885 15,830 17,868 19,862 21,924 Cameroon 10,191 12,1.4 14,293 16,680 19,306 22,045 24,767 27,511 30,133 Cape Verde 327 369 420 475 538 600 662 722 779 Central African Rep. 2,583 2,962 3,443 3,962 4,508 5,075 5,650 6,231 6,828 Chad 5,018 5,673 6,445 7,281 8,182 9,142 10,131 11,096 12,086 Congo, People's Rep. 1,872 2,240 2,689 3,176 3,684 4,190 4,681 5,168 5,617 Cote d'Ivoire 10,072 12,001 14,123 16,412 18,816 21,196 23,488 25,803 28,007 Equatorial Guinea 373 417 475 536 599 667 737 806 879 Gabon 997 1,135 1,313 1,500 1,693 1,900 2,117 2,342 2,568 Gambia, The 748 875 1,008 1,144 1,284 1,431 1,578 1,724 1,870 Ghana 12,710 14,925 17,436 20,205 23,175 26,197 29,212 32,225 35,106 Guinea 6,166 6,939 7,834 8,805 9,863 11,009 12,215 13,436 14,659 Guinea-Bissau 886 981 1,097 1,226 1,365 1,512 1,663 1,814 1,963 Liberia 2,204 2,605 3,053 3,546 4,087 4,661 5,226 5,813 6,404 Mali 7,511 8,510 9,764 11,198 12,790 14,505 16,270 18,030 19,829 Mauritania 1,693 1,924 2,219 2,555 2,927 3,318 3,714 4,107 4,505 Niger 6,391 7,445 8,725 10,161 11,756 13,494 15,305 17,056 18,864 Nigeria 99,669 118,255 139,575 163,484 189,416 216,530 242,946 270,371 297,944 Sao Tome aid Principe 108 124 140 157 174 191 207 221 235 Senegal 6,567 7,633 8,893 1,270 11,737 13,237 14,680 16,169 17,661 Sierra Leone 13,657 4,140 4,714 5,339 6,021 6,759 7,536 8,318 9,087 Togo 3,038 3,576 4,189 L,872 5,611 6,387 7,149 7,941 8,741 Other West Africa 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 West Africa total 203,469 238,804 279,374 324,316 372,864 423,723 474,280 525,906 577,482 30 Table 15. Population Projections for All Countries, 1985-2025 (thousands) (cont.) Country 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Algeria 21,905 25,503 29,429 33,585 37,893 42,287 46,601 50,678 54,554 Egypt, Arab Rep. 48,503 54,774 60,998 67,278 73,766 80,236 86,392 91,881 97,025 Libya 3,764 4,575 5,528 6,533 7,555 8,510 9,486 10,443 11,314 Morocco 21,925 254,811 27,978 31,267 34,561 37,774 40,915 43,910 46,647 Sudan 21,931 25,280 29,296 33,694 38,423 43,326 48,124 53,128 58,181 Tunisia 7,143 8,007 8,928 9,847 10,727 11,549 12,303 13,045 13,791 Other North Africa . 155 179 208 240 274 311 348 384 422 North Africa total 125,326 143,129 162,365 182,444 203,200 223,993 244,168 263,469 281,737 Africa total 560,523 652,741 756,933 870,933 992,948 1,119,439 1,244,943 1,371,076 1,495,460 America Antigua and Barbuda 80 85 92 101 109 116 123 128 133 Argentina 30,564 32,686 34,668 36,581 38,441 40,171 41,832 43,433 44,917 Bahamas 231 257 285 310 332 352 371 390 406 Barbados 253 259 263 270 279 287 295 303 309 Belize 166 193 222 253 283 309 333 357 382 Bolivia 6,383 7,250 8,179 9,172 10,236 11,334 12,434 13,504 14,496 Brazil 135,564 150,189 164,601 178,369 191,292 203,133 214,590 225,761 236,116 Chile 12,074 12,958 13,788 14,550 15,275 15,966 16,608 17,170 17,637 Colombia 28,418 31,171 34,028 36,831 39,438 41,784 44,032 46,235 48,30C Costa Rica 2,600 2,914 3,210 3,481 3,726 3,965 4,205 4,431 4,631 Cuba 10,090 10,600 11,161 11,690 12,169 12,593 1,976 13,319 13,614 Dominica 78 83 87 92 100 107 114 120 126 Dominican Rep. 6,416 7,176 7,933 8,655 9,326 9,939 10,550 11,173 11,75G Ecuador 9,378 10,755 12,164 13,569 14,939 16,241 17,424 18,561 19,67E El Salvador 4,768 5,254 5,787 6,368 6,975 7,583 8,156 8,740 9,343 Grenada 96 105 115 124 133 142 151 161 16 Guadeloupe 334 340 350 362 375 389 404 418 43. Guatemala 7,963 9,092 10,278 11,533 12,934 14,324 15,632 16,803 17,933 Guyana 790 831 875 922 983 1,044 1,106 1,165 1,21E Haiti 5,922 6,506 7,160 7,864 8,591 9,311 10,013 10,676 11,282 Honduras 4,383 5,155 5,979 6,825 7,673 8,505 9,298 10,018 10,71t Jamaica 2,227 2,365 2,531 2,698 2,856 3,011 3,173 3,339 3,505 Martinique 328 331 337 343 350 357 367 377 387 Mexico 78,820 88,928 99,408 109,861 119,665 128,483 137,018 145,615 153,-76 Montserrat 12 12 12 12 12 13 14 14 1: Netherlands Antilles 190 193 199 208 218 229 239 248 Nicaragua 3,272 3,809 4,382 4,985 5,612 6,246 6,858 7,431 7,9i' Panama 2,180 2,397 2,604 2,791 2,978 3,167 3,347 3,511 3,65L Paraguay 3,693 4,279 4,866 5,448 6,020 6,583 7,124 7,614 8,07 Peru 18,612 20,725 22,953 25,182 27,300 29,255 31,002 32,703 34,3S8 St. Kitts and Nevis 43 41 39 39 39 40 42 44 . St. LuciA 137 152 169 187 203 219 234 250 St. Vincent and Grenadines 117 127 138 149 160 171 182 192 20 Suriname 393 440 488 533 575 613 651 692 7sc Trinidad and Tobago 1,185 1,287 1,385 1,476 1,563 1,6L"' 1,733 1,812 1,38C Uruguay 3,012 3,124 3,235 3,339 3,449 3,557 3,664 3,764 3,85( 31 Table 15. Population Projections for All Countries, 1985-2025 (thousands) (cont.) Country 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Virgin Islands (U.S.) 107 115 122 129 137 143 150 157 163 Venezuela 17,317 19,616 21,823 23,777 25,523 27,248 29,008 30,685 32,173 Other Latin America 126 140 155 169 183 195 205 215 225 I Latin America and Caribbean total 398,322 441,939 486,071 529,250 570,451 608,774 645,658 681,530 715,232 Canada 25,379 26,625 27,604 28,372 29,002 29,563 30,065 30,473 30,701 United States 239,283 248,855 256,324 262,458 267,866 273,189 278,208 282,262 284,654 Puerto Rico 3,361 3,536 3,703 3,860 4,014 4,172 4,331 4,476 4,601 Other North America 115 121 127 131 135 139 142 144 146 North America total 268,138 279,137 287,757 294,821 301,017 307,063 312,746 317,356 320,102 America total 666,460 721,077 773,828 824,070 871,469 915,837 958,404 998,886 1,035,334 Asia Brunei 224 267 307 342 372 395 418 440 460 Burma 36,943 40,672 44,661 48,770 52,808 56,655 60,257 63,543 66,663 China (excl. Taiwan) (a) 1,040,035 1,115,552 1,198,155 1,274,411 1,335,522 1,386,424 1,436,893 1,489,293 1,537,267 Hong Kong 5,423 5,797 6,090 6,314 6,497 6,668 6,831 6,976 7,084 Indonesia 162,212 178,892 195,781 212,407 228,088 242,238 255,963 269,570 282,624 Japan 120,754 123,599 126,084 128,591 130,478 131,277 131,241 130,858 130,254 Kampuchea, Dem. 7,282 8,173 9,029 9,732 10,335 11,009 11,792 12,608 13,349 Korea, Dem. People's Rep. 20,385 22,792 25,210 2.7,534 29,696 31,651 33,535 35,398 37,150 Korea, Rep. of 41,056 43,768 46,619 19,368 51,848 53,976 55,823 57,516 59,039 Lao People's-Dem. Rep. 3,609 4,061 4,673 5,373 6,120 6,888 7,663 8,459 9,301 Macao 392 451 499 534 562 580 600 620 636 Malaysia 15,571 17,384 19,115 20,691 22,106 23,503 24,920 26,263 27,455 Mongolia 1,891 2,154 2,432 2,718 3,002 3,277 3,536 3,770 3,995 Philippines 54,725 61,500 68,377 75,327 82,160 88,600 94,383 99,878 105,227 Singapore 2,558 2,694 2,820 2,926 3,023 3,110 3,185 3,239 3,270 Thailand 51,700 56,524 61,311 65,647 69,728 73,684 77,460 80,959 84,084 Viet Nan 61,689 70,217 79,121 37,887 96,341 104,370 111,792 119,057 126,250 East and Southeast Asia total 1,645,857 1,775,250 1,912,316 2,041,804 2,153,109 2,249,870 2,342,882 2,435,917 2,522,333 Afghanistan 18,087 20,352 22,772 25,378 28,210 31,251 34,424 37,645 40.847 Bangladesh 100,592 113,335 126,064 139,762 153,878 167,832 181,136 193,500 204,752 Bhutan 1,240 1,388 1,563 1,744 1,932 2,124 2,309 2,499 2,684 India 765,147 843,347 920,813 995,793 1,066,797 1,130,352 1,191,753 1,252,759 1,311,746 Iran, Islamic Rep. 44,632 52,049 60,636 69,331 77,680 85,589 93,369 100,646 107,603 Maldives 183 214 249 285 323 363 404 447 488 Nepal 16,527 18,811 21,522 24,485 27,637 30,925 34,253 37,610 41,077 Pakistan 96,180 111,611 128,473 146,158 164,041 182,929 202,705 222,678 241,91C Sri Lanka 15,837 17,240 18,713 20,095 21,323 22,519 23,706 24,857 25,903 South Asia total 1,058,425 1,178,348 1,300,805 1,L23,031 1,541,821 1,653,883 1,764,060 1,872,640 1,977,01C 32 Table 15. Population Projections for All Countries, 1985-2025 (thousands) (cont.) Country 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Bahrain 417 486 549 604 647 685 721 756 786 Cyprus 665 697 723 747 771 796 820 838 L852 Gaza Strip 492 559 648 763 898 1,051 1,214 1,375 1,543 Iraq 15,898 19,086 22,929 27,096 31,405 35,495 39,631 43,654 47,331 Israel 4,233 4,579 4,910 5,234 5,539 5,834 6,108 6,371 6,603 Jordan 3,505 4,140 4,816 5,514 6,214 6,890 7,524 8,098 8,65f Kuwait 1,710 2,037 2,341 2,623 2,878 3,096 3,287 3,468 3,633 Lebanon 2,668 2,651 2,768 2,947 3,138 3,321 3,518 3,726 3,935 Oman 1,242 1,492 1,735 1,975 2,224 2,474 2,724 2,959 3,174 Qatar 315 420 507 587 666 743 820 894 96C Saudi Arabia 11,542. 14,062 17,011 20,215 23,576 26,938 30,221 33,518 36,657 Syrian Arab Rep. 10,505 12,383 14,392 16,517 18,722 20,939 23,039 24,919 26,731 Turkey 50,248 55,860 61,469 66,808 71,711 76,119 80,442 84,787 88,911 United Arab Emirates 1,374 1,660 1,903 2,102 2,250 2,378 2,492 2,600 2,68E Yemen Arab Rep. 7,955 9,183 10,689 12,335 14,109 15,977 17,875 19,789 21,745 Yemen, People's Dem. Rep. 2,086 2,349 2,635 2,934 3,248 3,576 3,908 4,235 4,544 Southwest Asia total 114,855 131,646 150,028 169,000 187,995 206,311 224,345 241,987 258,747 Asia total 2,819,137 3,085,244 3,363,149 3,633,835 3,882,925 4,110,064 4,331,286 4,550,544 4,758,091 Europe and USSR Albania 2,962 3,291 3,606 3,893 4,147 4,389 4,633 4,867 5,07E Austria 7,555 7,548 7,539 7,540 7,513 7,480 7,450 7,413 7,35E Belgium 9,857 9,865 9,844 9,825 9,776 9,713 9,650 9,594 9,524 Bulgaria 8,957 9,062 9,152 9,243 9,302 9,338 9,363 9,392 9,4ZC Channel Islands 130 131 131 131 130 129 128 127 12 Czechoslovakia 15,493 15,692 15,934 16,322 16,622 16,831 17,023 17,215 17,36 Denmark 5,114 5,088 5,057 5,036 5,008 4,969 4,921 4,864 4.79C Finland 4,908 5,010 5,076 5,119 5,143 5,159 5,171 5,168 5.14C France 55,172 56,414 57,623 58,767 59,615 60,306 60,891 61,425 61,SOE German Dem. Rep. 16,644 16,664 16,660 16,677 16,685 16,681 16,649 16,575 16,48 Germany, Fed. Rep. 61,015 60,362 59,623 58,952 57,962 56,776 55,498 54,144 52.82: Greece 9,935 10,139 10,316 10,476 10,600 10,683 10,741 10,797 10,S5 Hungary 10,649 10,567 10,509 10,508 10,482 10,424 10,350 10,273 10,186 Iceland 241 255 267 278 288 298 307 316 32: Ireland 3,552 3,705 3,865 4,018 4,179 4,335 4,483 4,620 4,74 Italy 57,128 57,299 57,414 57,691 57,703 57,438 56,989 56,502 56,03- Luxembourg 366 365 364 362 358 354 349 343 332 Malta 358 355 355 359 363 366 368 368 36 Netherlands 14,484 14,766 14,990 15,169 15,263 15,302 15,305 15,278 15,184 Norway 4,153 4,200 4,239 4,276 4,302 4,321 4,341 4,357 . Poland 37,203 38,479 39,749 40,787 41,811 42,796 43,670 44,391 "..96, Portugal 10,229 10,504 10,790 11,078 11,341 11,567 11,769 11,957 12,11 Romania 22,740 23,295 23,843 24,413 24,891 25,260 25,553 25,818 26,08 Spain 38,602 39,859 40,981 42,068 43,044 43,815 4-,425 45,001 45,56 Sweden 8,350 8,344 8,325 8,309 8,278 8,246 5,212 8,166 S,09( Switzerland 6,458 6,499 6,523 6,537 6,519 6,482 0,434 6,378 6,30: United Kingdom 56,543 56,645 56,774 56,880 56,845 56,832 p6,886 56,966 56,3. Yugoslavia 23,123 23,796 24,325 24,829 25,254 25,580 25,826 26,034 26,20: 33 Table 15. Population Projections for All Countries, 1985-2025 (thousands) (cont.) Country 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Other Europe 253 264 276 287 298 307 318 329 335 U.S.S.R. 277,420 288,561 298,392 307,737 316,421 324,217 331,606 337,963 344,187 Europe and USSR total 769,594 787,025 802,540 817,567 830,143 840,392 849,308 856,639 863,099 Oceania Australia 15,752 16,745 17,550 18,169 18,697 19,159 19,573 19,915 20,171 Fiji 697 743 794 848 901 954 1,008 1,058 1,106 French Polynesia 175 204 234 265 294 317 338 358 379 Guam 123 138 152 166 179 192 203 214 223 Kiribati 64 69 75 81 88 95 102 109 116 New Caledonia 149 160 172 184 198 209 220 231 241 New Zealand 3,254 3,356 3,458 3,559 3,653 3,743 3,832 3,910 3,973 Pacific Islands 148 164 182 203 227 250 272 291 310 Papua New Guinea 3,511 3,943 4,403 4,888 5,393 5,910 6,427 6,926 7,393 Solomon Islands 273 325 383 47 517 591 669 747 823 Tonga 97 104 113 123 133 143 155 167 178 Vanuatu 131 151 174 198 224 252 283 314 344 Western Samoa 160 167 177 192 208 224 240 256 273 Other Micronesia 23 25 28 30 33 35 37 39 41 Other Polynesia 70 75 81 88 96 103 110 117 123 Oceania total 24,627 26,368 27,975 29,440 30,839 32,179 33,470 34,653 35,694 World total 4,840,341 5,272,455 5,724,425 6,175,845 6,608,323 7,017,912 7,417,411 7,811,797 8,187,678 Growth rate (%) (b) 1.71 1.64 1.52 1.35 1.20 1.11 1.04 0.94 (a) The data for Taiwan, China, are as follows: 19.408 million in 1985; 20.753 million in 1990; 22.033 million in 1995; 23.233 million in 2000; 24.423 million in 2005; 25.564 million in 2010; 26.589 million in 2015; 27.470 million in 2020; 28.226 million in 2025. (b) Average annual growth rate over each five-year period. The projected average annual growth rate for 1985-2000 i5 1.62 percent. The projected rate for 2000-2025 is 1.13 percent. 34 Table 16. Economies Classified According to Income Group (based on GNP per capita in 1985 U.S. dollars) Low-income ($400 or less) Lower-middle income Upper-middle income High-income (oil exporters) ($401-$1635) (more than $1,635) East Africa Bahrain Burundi East Africa East Africa Kuwait Comoras Botswana Reunion Libya Ethiopia Djibouti Seychelles Qatar Kenya Lesotho South Africa Saudi Arabia Madagascar Mauritius United Arab Emirates Malawi Namibia West Africa Mozambique Swaziland Gabon Industrial market economies Rwanda Zimbabwe Other West Africa Somalia North America Tanzania West Africa North Africa Canada Uganda Cameroon Algeria United States (50 States) Zaire Cape Verde Puerto Rico Zambia Congo, People's Rep. Latin America and the Caribbean Other North America Cote d'Ivoire Antigua and Barbuda West Africa Liberia Argentina Asia Benin Mauritania Bahamas Japan Burkina Faso Nigeria Barbados Central African Rep. Brazil Europe Chad North Africa Guadeloupe Austria Equatorial Guinea Egypt, Arab Rep. of Martinique Belgium Gambia, The Morocco Mexico Channel Islands Ghana Tunisia Montserrat Denmark Guinea Other North Africa Netherlands Antilles Finland Guinea-Bissau Other Latin America France Mali Latin America and the Caribbean Panama Germany, Federal Rep. Niger Belize Suriname Iceland Sao Tome and Principe Bolivia Trinidad and Tobago Ireland Senegal Chile Uruguay Italy Sierra Leone Colombia Venezuela Luxembourg Togo Costa Rica Virgin Islands (U.S.) Netherlands Dominica Norway North Africa Dominican Rep. East and Southeast Asia Spain Sudan Ecuador Brunei Sweden El Salvador Hong Kong Switzerland Latin America and the Caribbean Grenada Korea, Rep. of United Kingdom Haiti Guatemala Macao Guyana Malaysia Oceania East and Southeast Asia Honduras Singapore Australia Burma Jamaica Taiwan, China New Zealand China (excluding Taiwan) Nicaragua Kampuchea, Dem. Paraguay South Asia Non-Reporting non-member Economies Lao People's Dem. Rep. Peru Iran, Islamic Rep. of Viet Nam St. Kitts and Nevis West Africa St. Lucia Southwest Asia Angola South Asia St. Vincent and the Grenadines Cyprus Afghanistan Iraq Latin America and the Caribbean Bangladesh East and Southeast Asia Israel Cuba Bhutan Indonesia Oman India Philippines East-and Southeast Asia Maldives Thailand Europe Korea, Dem. People's Nepal Greece Mongolia Pakistan Southwest Asia Hungary Sri Lanka Gaza Strip Malt.a Europe Jordan Other Europe Albania Oceania Lebanon Poland Bulgaria Vanuatu Syrian Arab Rep. Portugal Czechoslovakia Turkey Romania German Dem. Rep. Yemen Arab Rep. Yugoslavia USSR Yemen People 's Dem. Oceania Oceania Fiji Kiribati French Polynesia Other Micronesia Guam Pacific Islands New Caledonia Papua New Guinea Other Polynesia Solomon Islands Tonga Western Samoa 35 Table 17. Countries Classified According to Bank Region Borrowers Asia CDIV Last and Southeast Asia CD1 Cyprus Brunei Sub-Saharan Africa Bangladesh Hungary Hong Kong CDI Bhutan Poland Japan Benin Nepal Portugal Korea, Dem. People's Rep. of Cameroon Sri Lanka Romania Macao Central African Rep. Yugoslavia Mongolia Congo, People's Rep. CDII Singapore Cote d'lvoire Burma LAC Taiwan, China Equatorial Guinea Kampuchea, Dem. (Latin America and Gabon Korea, Rep. of Caribbean) Southwest Asia Guinea Lao People's Dem. Rep. CDI Gaza Strip Togo Malaysia Brazil Israel Philippines CDII Thailand CDII Oceania Ethiopia Viet Nam Costa Rica Australia Kenya El Salvador French Polynesia Mauritius CDIII Guatemala Guam Somalia China (excluding Taiwan) Honduras New Caledonia Sudan Mexico New Zealand Uganda CDJV Nicaragua Pacific Islands India Panama Other Micronesia CDIII Other Polynesia Burundi CDV -DIII Comoros Fiji Antigua and Barbuda Europe Djibouti Indonesia Bahamas Albania Madagascar Kiribati Barbados Austria Rwanda Maldives Belize Belgium Seychelles Papua New Guinea Bolivia Bulgaria Zaire Solomon Islands Colombia Channel Islands Tonga Dominica Czechoslovakia CDIV Vanuatu Dominican Rep. Denmark Ghana estern Samoa Grenada Finland Guinea-Bissau Guyana France Liberia EMENA Haiti German Dem. Rep. Nigeria (Europe, Middle East, Jamaica Germany, Federal Rep. of Sao Tome & Principe and North Africa) Montserrat Greece Sierra Leone CDI St. Kitts and Nevis Iceland Pakistan St. Lucia Ireland CDV Turkey St. Vincent and the Grenadines Italy Burkina Faso Suriname Luxembourg Cape Verde CDII Trinidad and Tobago Netherlands Chad Algeria Venezuela Norway Gambia, The Libya Spain Mali Malta CDIV Sweden Mauritania Morocco Argentina Switzerland Niger Tunisia Chile United Kingdom Senegal Ecuador USSR CDIII Paraguay Other Europe CDVI Afghanistan Peru Botswana Bahrain Uruguay Latin America and the Caribbean Lesotho Egypt, Arab Rep. of Cuba Malawi Iran, Islamic Rep. of Non-borrowers Guadeloupe Mozambique Iraq Martinique Swaziland Jordan Sub-Saharan Africa Netherlands Antilles Tanzania Kuwait Angola Virgin Islands (U.S.) Zambia Lebanon Namibia Other Latin America Zimbabwe Oman Reunion Qatar South Africa North America Saudi Arabia Other West Africa Canada Syria Fuerto Rico United Arab Emirates North Africa united States of America Yemen Arab Rep. Other North Africa Other North America Yemen, People's Dem. Rep. of 36 Table 18. Countries Grouped in the "Other" Categories by Region 1985 Population Countries (thousands) West Africa St. Helena 7.0 North Africa West Sahara 155.0 Latin America and the Caribbean 126.0 British Virgin Islands 13.0 Cayman Islands 20.0 Falkland Islands 2.0 French Guinana 83.0 Turks and Caicos Islands 8.0 North America 115.0 Bermuda 56.0 Greenland 53.0 St. Pierre and Miquelon 6.0 Europe 253.0 Andora 35.0 Faeroe Islands 46.0 Gibraltar 29.0 Holy See 1.0 Isle of Man 65.0 Liechtenstein 28.0 Monaco 27.0 San Marino 22.0 Oceania Other Polynesia 70.0 America Samoa 36.0 Cook Islands 18.0 Niue 3.0 Wallis and Futuna Islands 13.0 Other Micronesia 23.1 Nauru 8.0 Tuvalu 8.0 Johnston Island 1.0 Midway Islands 2.0 Pitcairn 0.1 Tokelau Islands 2.0 Wake Island 2.0 37 Table Al. Sources of Population Data Popu- Census lation Country date (1000) Source for 1985 population Afghanistan Jun 79 13051 F Bank estimate of 1980 population (15,950) based on 1979 census with nomads (15,540) 23/6/79), and excluding refugee movement to Pakistan which is assumed temporary. Albania Oct 60 1626 F PVSR 7/86 (latest official estimate). Algeria Feb 77 16948 J Feb 1977 census projected to 1985, using official estimate of growth rate (3.2%) for recent years. American Samoa Apr 80 32 J US/BOC, 1985. Andorra Nov 54 6 F PVSR 7/86. Angola Dec 70 5646 F UN 1984 revision. Anguilla na Antigua and Barbuda Feb 81 66 F Bank estimate based on the 1984 official estimate (79) from PVSR 7/86, and growth rate of 1.3%. Argentina Oct 80 27947 F CELADE printout 2/87. Australia -Jun 81 14576 F PVSR 7/36 (latest official estimate), de jure population. Austria May 81 7555 J PVSR 7/36 (latest official estimate). Bahamas May 80 223 F PVSR 7/36 (latest official estimate). Bahrain Apr 81 351 F PVSR 7/36 (official estimate). Bangladesh Mar 81 87120 F 1981 census adjusted for underenumeration (3.3%) and projected. Barbados May 80 252 F Estimated, based on 1984 official estimate (253) and 1983-84 growth rate of 0.4%. Belgium Mar 81 9849 J Estimated based on 1984 official estimate (9853) and growth rate of 0.04%. Belize May 80 143 F PVSR 7/86 (latest official estimate). Benin Mar 79 3331 F March 1979 census projected to 1980 (3,464) and 1985, using Bank estimates of TFR and E(0). Bermuda May 80 68 F UNDY, 1984 (official estimate). Bhutan Dec 69 1035 F 1980 population based on government estimate (reportedly based on 1980-81 census), 1985, Bank projection. Bolivia Sep 76 4613 F UN 1984 revision. Botswana Aug 81 941 F 1981 census projected backwards to 1980, then forward to 1985, using official estimates of fertility, mortality, and migration for 1980-85 period. Brazil Sep 80 121149 F UN 1984 revision. British Virgin Islands May 80 12 F PVSR 4/87. Brunei Aug 81 193 F PVSR 7/86 (latest official estimate). Bulgaria Dec 85 8948 F PVSR 7/86 (latest official estimate). Burkina Faso Dec 85 7747 F Dec 1965 census adjusted to mid-1985. Burma Apr 83 35314 F April 1983 census projected to 1985, using Bank estimates of TFR and E(0). Burundi Aug 79 4114 F 1979 census projected forward to 1980 and to 1985. Cameroon Apr 76 7090 F April 1.976 census corrected for underenumeration (7.40%) and projected to 1980 and 1985. 38 Table Al. Sources of PopulAtion Data (cont.) Popu- Census lation Country date (1000) Source for 1985 population Canada Jun 81 24343 J PVSR 7/86 (official estimate). Cape Verde Jun 80 296 F Bank estimate. Cayman Islands Oct 79 17 F Central African Rep. Dec 75 2055 F Dec 1975 census corrected for 11.3% underenumeration, projected to 1980 and 1985. Chad Dec 63 3254 UN 1984 revision. Channel Islands Apr 81 129 F PVSR 7/86. Chile Apr 82 11330 F PVSR 7/86 (official estimate). China Jul 82 1031883 F Official estimate for 1984 year-end pop. is 1,034,750, CBR=l7.5,CDR=7,GR=l.08. Mid-1985 pop. obtained by adding half year growth at the rate of 1.08 per year to year-end'84 pop. Colombia Oct 85 27867 J Official estimate as reported by Bank economist. Comoros Sep 80 386 Mid-1980 population estimated from census total, then projected to 1985. Congo, People's Rep. Jan 85 1854 Feb 1974 census (1300) projected to 1985 using Bank's TFR and E(0). Cook Islands Dec 81 18 F US/BOC, 1985. Costa Rica Jun 84 2417 J PVSR 7/86 (official estimate). C6te d'Ivoire Apr 75 6710 F April 1975 census projected to 1985 using Bank estimate of TFR and E(O). Cuba Sep 81 9724 F PVSR 7/86 (official estimate). Cyprus Sep 76 613 J PVSR 7/86 (official estimate). Czechoslovakia Nov 80 15283 J Estimated from latest official estimate (PVSR 7/86) of population 5/31/85 (15,476) and that of 12/31/85 (15,480). Denmark Jan 81 5124 J PVSR 7/86. Djibouti 60 81 F January 1983 census (excluding refugees in camp) projected using growth rate for 1980-1985 of 3.2%. Dominica Apr 81 75 F April 1981 census projected to 1985 using growth rate of 1.32%. Dominican Rep Dec 81 5648 F CELADE printout 2/87. Ecuador Nov 82 8051 F UN 1984 revision. Egypt, Arab Rep. of Nov 76 36626 F 1985 population obtained by projecting 1980 population (from UN 1984 revision) using growth rate of 2.53%. El Salvador Jun 71 3555 F CELADE printout 2/87 Equatorial Guinea Dec 60 246 F Estimated, based on growth rate between 1960 census and 1982 house listingzcount (300). Ethiopia May 84 42169 F 1984 census projected forward using growth rate of 0.2%. Faeroe Islands Sep 77 42 J PVSR 7/86. Falkland Is. (Malvinas) Dec 80 2 F PVSR 4/87. FiJi . Sep 76 588 F PVSR 7/86. Finland Nov 80 4785 J PVSR 7/86 (official estimate). France Mar 82 54335 F PVSR 7/86 (official estimate). French Guiana Mar 82 73 J UN 1985 printout. 39 Table Al. Sources of Population Data (cont.) Popu- Census lation Country date (1000) * Source for 1985 population French Polynesia Oct 83 167 F 1983 census total adjusted to mid-year and then projected to 1985 using intercensal (1977-1983) growth rate of 2.98%. Gabon Oct 60 449 F Estimate based on unpublished Aug 1980 census (800) and indirect evidence of high immigration based on new primary :school entrants for 1980 to 1985. Gambia, The Apr 83 696 F June 1983 census projected to 1985 using a growth rate of 3.3%. Gaza Strip Sep 67 356 F Bank estimate, based on projection. German Democratic Rep. Dec 81 16706 J PVSR 7/86 (official estimate). Germany, Federal Rep. of May 70 60651 J PVSR 7/86 (latest official estimate). Ghana Mar 84 l2206 F March 1984 census (12,205) and growth rate of 3.2%. Gibraltar Nov 81 30 F PVSR 7/86 (official estimate). Greece Apr 81 9740 F PVSR 7/86 (official estimate). Greenland Oct 76 50 J PVSR 7/86 (official estimate). Grenada Apr 81 89 F Provided by Bank economist. Pop.1983 was obtained, using growth rate of 1.97% from 1983 figure. Guadeloupe Mar 82 327 J UN 1985 Assessment. Guam Apr 80 106 J 1984 official estimate (PVSR 7/86) projected to 1985 using average growth rate of 2.87% for period 1980-84. Guatemala Mar 81 6054 J PVSR 7/86 (official estimate). Guinea Feb 83 5781 F 1983 census projected using growth rate of 2.33 (UN 1984 revision). Guinea-Bissau Apr 79 768 F April 1979 census, projected to 1985 using vital rates of Guinea. Guyana May 80 758 F PVSR 7/86 (official estimate). Haiti Aug 82 5054 3 CELADE printout 2/87. Holy See Apr 48 1 F PVSR 7/86. Honduras Mar 74 2657 J CELADE printout 2/87. Hong Kong Mar 81 4987 F PVSR 7/36 (official estimate). Hungary Jan 80 10709 F PVSR 7/36. Iceland Dec 80 204 J PVSR 7/36 (official estimate). India Mar 81 685185 F 1981 census with official correction for underenumeration, projected to 1985 using Bank estimate of fertility and mortality. Indonesia Oct 80 147490 F Oct 1980 census (not adjusted for undercount) projected to 1985. Iran, Islamic Rep. of Nov 76 33709 F UN 1984 revision. Iraq Oct 77 12000 F UN 1984 revision. Ireland Apr 81 3443 F PVSR 4/87 (official estimate). Isle of Man Apr 86 64 J PVSR 7/86. Israel Jun 83 4038 J PVSR 7/86 (official estimate). Italy Oct 81 56557 F PVSR 7/86 (official estimate). Jamaica Jun 82 2206 F 1980 population (official estimate) projected to 1985. Japan Oct 80 117060 F PVSR 7/86 (official estimate). 40 Table Al. Sources of Population Data (cont.) Popu- Census lation Country date (1000) * Source for 1985 population Johnston Island Apr 70 1 F PVSR 6/86. Jordan Nov 79 2133 F Census includes only the population of East Bank. 1980 population (UN, 1984 revision) projected with new migration and TFR. Kampuchea, Democratic Apr 62 5729 F 1980 population (UN 1984 revision) projected to 1985. Kenya Aug 79 15327 F August 1979 census (adjusted for 5% undercount of children) projected to 1980 and 1985). Kiribati May 85 64 F PVSR 4/87 (official estimate). Korea, Dem. People's Rep. May 44 na F 1980 population (UN 1984 revision) projected using UN TFR and E(0) for 1980-85. Korea, Rep. of Nov 80 37436 F PVSR 7/86 (official estimate). Kuwait Apr 85 1697 F Based on census using growth rate of 4.4%. Lao, People's Dem. Rep. Mar 85 3585 F 1985 census projected using a growth rate of 2.0% for the 4-month period after census date because of migration. Lebanon Nov 70 2126 F UN 1984 revision. Lesotho Sep 76 1217 April 1986 census (1,578) projected backwards to mid-1985. Liberia Feb 84 2102 F Feb 1974 census (1504) projected to 1985 using a growth rate of 3.35%. Libya Jul 84 3637 J July 1984 census projected to 1985, using a growth rate of 3.86% (UN 1984 revision). Liechtenstein Dec 81 26 F PVSR 7/86. Luxembourg Mar 81 365 J PVSR 7/86 (official estimate). Macao Mar 81 242 J PVSR 7/86 (official estimate). Madagascar 74-75 7604 F 1974/75 census projected using fertility and mortality estimates from the Budget Survey. Malawi Sep 77 5547 F Nov 1977 census projected to 1985. Malaysia Jun 80 13183 F 1980 population (UN 1984 revision) projected using Bank estimates of fertility and mortality. Maldives Mar 85 181 F 1985 census projected to mid-year using intercensal growth rate of 3.3%. Mali Dec -76 6395 F Dec 1976 census projected backwards to 1975, then forward to 1980, and 1985. Malta Nov 67 316 F Bank estimate based on official estimate of 360 for 1982 and very significant net emigration rate. Martinique Mar 82 327 J PVSR 7/86 (official estimate). Mauritania Dec 76 1420 1976 census (included 539,000 nomads, but excluded 67,000 "transhumants", who are "1'etrangers" but Mauritanian nationality) projected, using Bank estimates of TFR and E(0). Mauritius Dec 83 1000 PVSR 4/87 (official estimate). Mexico* Jun 80 66847 J 1980 population (UN 1984 revision) projected to 1985. Midway Islands Apr 70 2 F PVSR 7/86. Monaco Mar 82 27 J PVSR 7/86. 41 Table Al. Sources of Population Data (cont.) Popu- Census lation Country date (1000) Source for 1985 population Mongolia Jan 79 1595 F PVSR 7/86 (official estimate). Montserrat May 80 12 F UN 1984. Morocco Sep 82 20420 F Sept 1982 census projected to 1985. Mozambique Aug 80 11674 Aug 1980 census (adjusted for 4% underenumeration) projected backwards to mid-1985 using a growth rate of 2.6%, then forward to 1985. Namibia May 70 762 1981 census projected backwards to mid-1980 and then forward to 1985. Nauru Jan 77 7 F PVSR 1/87. Nepal Jun 81 15023 J June 1981 census projected to 1985 using Bank estimates of TFR and E(0). Netherlands Antilles Feb 81 172 J Bank estimate. Netherlands, The Feb 71 13060 J PVSR 7/86 (official estimate). New Caledonia Apr 83 145 F 1983 census projected using intercensal growth rate of 1.25%. New Zealand Mar 81 3176 F PVSR 7/86 (latest official estimate). Nicaragua Apr 71 1878 J UN 1984 revision. Niger Nov 77 5098 0 Nov. 1977 census projected to 1980 and to 1985. Nigeria Nov 63 55670 F Bank projection based on official government data. Niue Sep 76 4 F PVSR 4/87 (latest official estimate). Norway Nov 80 4091 J PVSR 7/86 (official estimate). Oman Jun 81 15023 F UN 1984 revision. Pacific Is., Trust Terri. Sep 80 133 J Pop l983 (PVSR 1/87) projected to 1985 using growth rate of 2.2% (US/BOC, 1985). Pakistan Mar 81 84254 F Federal Bureau of Statistics. Panama May 80 1825 F UN 1984 revision. Papua New Guinea Sep 80 3011 F UN 1984 revision. Paraguay Jul 82 3035 F CELADE printout 2/87. Peru Jul 81 17005 F Bank estimate using growth rate of 2.3% (from Census data) and Bank estimates of TFR and E(0). Philippines May 80 48098 J Based on 1980 population, using Bank estimate of TFR and E(0) and net emigration of 250,000. Pitcairn Island Dec 85 .. F PVSR 1/87. Poland Dec 78 35061 J Statistical Year Book, Government of Poland. Portugal Mar 81 9833 F PVSR 7/86 (official estimate). Puerto Rico Apr 80 3197 F Estimated, using the average growth rate of 1980-84 (PVSR 7/84; 4/85; 7/86). Qatar May 70 111 PVSR 4/87 (estimate). Reunion Mar 82 516 J March 1982 census projected using a growth rate of 1.04%. Romania Jan 77 21560 F Estimated from 1984 official figure of 22,625 (PVSR 7/86) plus natural increase for one year (117,000) and net emigration for one year (200). Rwanda* Aug 78 4800 J Based on 1970 survey and Aug 1978 census. San Marino Nov 76 19 F PVSR 786. 42 Table Al. Sources of Population Data (cont.) Popu- Census lation Country date (1000) Source for 1985 population Sao Tome and Principe Sep 70 73811 F PVSR 1/87. Saudi Arabia Sep 74 7013 F UN 1984 revision. Senegal Sep 76 4908 F Situation Economique du Senegal, 1985. Seychelles Aug 77 61898 F PVSR 4/87. Sierra Leone Dec 85 3516 F Census adjusted for 5% underenumeration and projected backwards. Singapore Jun 80 2414 F PVSR 7/87 (official estimate). Solomon Islands Feb 76 197 F US/BOC, 1985. Somalia Feb 75 3253 F 1975 census inflated by 20% (Govt. estimate) for underenumeration and projected to 1980 and 1985 (growth rate 1975-80=2.6% and 1980-85=2.8%) South Africa May 80 25017 May 1980 census increased to 28,544 to cover excluded areas and underenumeration, then projected to 1985 using growth rate of 2.51%. Spain Mar 81 37746 F PVSR 7/86 (latest official estimate). Sri Lanka Mar 81 14847 F PVSR 7/86 (official estimate). St. Helena Oct 76 5 J PVSR 4/87. St. Kitts and Nevis May 80 44 F Statistics Office, Planning Unit (official estimate). St. Lucia May 80 115 F 1984 population (official estimated from economist projected using 1983-84 growth rate of 2.0%. St. Pierre and Miquelon Mar 82 6 F PVSR 4/87. St. Vincent May 80 98 F Estimated using 1983 population (Report No. 5241-STV, 1984) and growth rate of 1.2%. Sudan Feb 83 20564 F Feb 1983 census projected to mid 1985, using a Bank estimated growth rate of 2.71%. Suriname Jul 80 352 F UN 1984 revision. Swaziland Aug 76 6366 F PHN Sector Report 1984. Sweden Sep 80 8320 J PVSR 7/86 (official estimate). Switzerland Dec 80 6366 J Estimated from official 1984 population, 6442 (PVSR 7/86) by adding natural increase for one year. Syrian Arab Rep. Sep 81 9053 F 1980 population estimated from census using growth rate of 3.54% (UN). 1985 population projected from 1980. Taiwan Dec 80 17969 F Based on 1980 census and projected (official 1981 CBR = 23, CDR = 4.8). Tanzania Aug 78 17513 F Aug 1978 census projected to 1980 and 1985. Thailand Apr 80 44825 J Population and Manpower Planning Division (Bank Report No. 6036-TH, Vol 3, 1986). Togo Nov 81 2705 F Nov 1981 census projected to 1985. Tokelau Oct 82 2 F PVSR 1/87. Tonga Nov 76 90 J PVSR 4/87 (official estimate). Trinidad and Tobago May 80 1080 F UN 1984 revision. Tunisia Mar 84 6966 F March 1984 census projected to 1985 using growth rate of 2.39%. Turkey Oct 80 44737 F Based on 1985 census. Turks and Caicos Is. May 80 7 F PVSR 4/87. 43 Table Al. Sources o' Population Data (cont.) Popu- Census lation Country date (1000) * Source for 1985 population Tuvalu May 79 7 F PVSR 1/87. Uganda Jan 80 12637 F Official estimate as reported by economist. United Arab Emirates Dec 80 1043 F Dec 1980 census projected to 1985 using growth rate of 6. 04%. United Kingdom Apr 81 55678 F Estimated from official 1984 figure (56,488) by adding natural increase for one year (PVSR 7/86). United States of America Apr 80 226546 F PVSR 7/86 (official estimate). Uruguay Oct 85 2931 F CELADE printout 2/87. USSR Jan 79 262436 F 1984 population (PVSR 7/86, latest official data) projected, adding natural increase and subtracting 6000 migrants. Vanuatu Jan 79 111 F Bank projection. Venezuela Oct 81 14517 F UN 1984 revision. Viet Nam Oct 79 52742 F 1980 population estimated from adjusted census total (53,248), and projected to 1985. Virgin Islands (US) Apr 80 97 3 US/BOC, 1985. Wake Island Apr 70 2 F PVSR 1181. Wallis and Futuna Mar 69 9 F US/BOC, 1985. Western Sahara Dec 70 76 F PVSR 4/87. Western Samoa Nov 81 156 F US/BOC, .985 Yemen, Arab Rep. of Feb 86 9274 F Bank estimate based on official 1980 mid-year estimate projected using growth rate of 2.45%. Yemen, People's Dem. Rep. May 73 1590 J Bank estimate based on unofficial results of the Agricultural Survey. Yugoslavia Mar 81 22425 J PVSR 7/81 (official estimate). Zaire Jul 84 29671 F July 1984 census projected using growth rate of 2.94%. Zambia Sep 80 5680 F Central Statistical Office. Zimbabwe Aug 82 7550 F Bank estimate, based on Aug 1982 census. Nature of estimate: de jure (3) or de facto (F). Less than 500 people. na Not available. Abbreviations: CELADE Centro Latino Americano de Demografia PHN Population, Health and Nutrition Department, World Bank PVSR Population Vital Statistics Report SSA Sub-Saharan Africa UNDY * United Nations Demographic Year Book US/BOC U.S. Bureau of-the Census 44 Table A2. Sources of Fertility Data Country Source Afghanistan Bank estimate Albania 1980-85 based on official vital statistics, but adjusted to coincide with observed growth rate, 1985-90 Bank projection. Algeria 1980-1985 from UN 1984 revision, 1985-90 Bank projection. American Samoa Bank estimate. Andorra Bank estimate. Angola Bank estimate. Anguilla Bank estimate. Antigua and Barbuda 1980-85 derived from CBR = 15 (PVSR 7/86), 1985-90 Bank projection. Argentina 1980-85 from 1984 revision, 1985-90 Bank projection. Australia PVSR 7/86 (latest official estimate). Austria Derived from official estimate of CBR = 11.5 for 1985 and adjusted to produce the given growth rate. Bahamas Derived from official birth rate of 23.2 for 1985 (PVSR 7/86). Bahrain 1980-85 from UN 1984 revision, 1985-90 Bank projection. Bangladesh Bank estimate based on different survey results (Census Analytical Report) and contraceptive prevalence rate. Barbados 1980-85 from UN 1984 revision, 1985-90 Bank projection. Belgium Derived from CBR = 11.5 for 1985 (PVSR 7/86). Belize Derived from CBR = 38 for 1985 (US/BOC, 1985). Benin Estimated from World Fertility Survey (1979). Bermuda Bank estimate. Bhutan Same as Nepal: provides the observed growth rates. Bolivia UN 1984 revision. Small difference in 1985 is due to difference in methodology. Botswana Estimated from official data (Statistical Bulletin , March 1985, CSO, Botswana). Brazil 1980-85 from UN 1984 revision, 1985-90 Bank projection. British Virgin Islands Bank estimate. Brunei Estimated, using a reported CBR of 29.8 for 1985. Bulgaria Estimated from reported CBR = 13.2 for 1985 (PVSR 7/86) and CBR = 13.98 for 1980-84. Burkina Faso Bank source (SSA Background Paper). Burma For 1980-1985 from UN 1984 revision, 1985-1990 Bank projection. Burundi Bank estimate (SSA Background Paper) using national survey results (1965, 70/71, 79 census, 79 post-censal demographic survey). Cameroon TFR of 6.5 for 1975-80 and 1980-85 from World Fertility Survey, assumed to increase to 6.75 during 1985-90 due to reduction in sterility. Canada Official estimate. (UNDY 1984). Cape Verde Bank estimate based on CBR given by government. Cayman Islands Bank estimate. Central African Rep. Bank estimate (SSA Background Paper). Chad UN 1984 revision. Channel Islands Estimated using CBR = 11.9 for 1985 (PVSR 7/86). Chile UN 1984 with slight adjustment for official estimate c CBR. China Estimated, using CBR of 19.3. 45 Table AZ. Sources of Fertility Data (cont.) Country Source Colombia From economist. Comoros From PHN sector report. Congo, People's Republic Bank estimate (SSA Background Paper). Cook Islands Bank estimate. Costa Rica UN 1984 revision for 1980-85, 1985-90 Bank projection. C5te d'Ivoire Bank estimate (Sector Report). Cuba UN 1984 revision. Cyprus UN 1984 revision. Czechoslovakia Derived from CBR = 15.28 (1980-1984) and CBR = 14.5 (1985). Denmark Derived from CBR = 10.1. Djibouti Ethiopian rates used. Dominica 1980-85 based on information given to economist by Ministry of Health, 1985- 90 Bank projection. Dominican Republic CELADE printout 2/87. Ecuador 1980-85 data from 1984 UN revision. 1985-90 Bank projection. Egypt, Arab Republic Based on official CBR, using UN age fertility and distribution. El Salvador CELADE printout 2/87 Equatorial Guinea UN assessment, 1985. Ethiopia From pre-famine UN estimate. Faeroe Islands Bank estimate. Falkland Is. (Malvinas) Bank estimate. Fiji Derived from CBR = 28.4 for 1984 (UNDY 1984). Finland Derived from CBR = 13.3 (1984). France Derived from CBR = 13.9 for 1985 (PVSR 7/86). French Guiana Bank estimate. French Polynesia Derived from CBRs 30.2 for 1984 (PVSR 1/87) and 29 for 1985 (US/BOC, 1985). Gabon Bank estimate (SSA Background Paper). Gambia, The Bank estimate (SSA Background Paper). Gaza Strip UN 1984 revision. German Democratic Republic Derived from CBR = 13.7 (1985). Germany, Federal Republic Derived from CBR = 9.6 (1985). Ghana 1980-85 from UN 1984 revision, assuming declining fertility during 1985-90. Gibraltar Bank estimate. Greece Derived from CBR = 11.7 (1985). Greenland Bank estimate. Grenada Figures interpolated, using 1980-85 and 1985-90 figures from 1985 World Population Projections. Guadeloupe UN 1984 revision. Guam Estimated to get desired CBR. Guatemala 1980-85 UN 1984 revision, 1985-90 Bank projections. Guinea UN 1984 revision. Guinea-Bissau Same as Guinea Guyana UN 1984 revision. Haiti * CELADE printout 2/87. Holy See Bank estimate. 46 Table A2. Sources of Fertility Data (cont.) Country Source Honduras CELADE printout 2/87. Hong Kong Estimated with CBR = 16.0. Hungary Derived from CBR = 11.7 (1985). Iceland Derived from CBR = 15.9 (1985). India Adjusted SRS rate (World Bank staff working paper No.699). Indonesia Bank estimate based on census age data, TFR and contraceptive prevalence rate from a sample survey. Iran, Islamic Republic UN 1984 revision. Iraq UN 1984 revision. Ireland Derived from CBR = 17.5, 1985 (PVSR 7/86). Isle of Man Bank estimate. Israel Estimated, based on official vital statistics. Italy Derived from CBR = 10.1 for 1985 (PVSR 7/86). Jamaica Derived from CBR = 24.3 for 1985 (from economist). Japan Estimated from reported CBR of 12.9 for 1980-85. Johnston Island Bank estimate. Jordan Based on World Fertility Survey (1976 TFR=7.7) Demographic Survey (1981 TFR=7.1), Manpower Survey (1982 TFR=6.6) and Family Health Survey (1983 TFR=6.6). Kampuchea, Democratic UN assessment, 1984. Kenya 1980-85 based on various national surveys, 1985-90 Bank projection, assuming same recent decline in fertility. Kiribati Estimated from CBR = 34 for 1985 (US/BOC, 1985). Korea, Dem. People's Rep. UN 1984 assessment. Korea, Rep. of UN 1984 assessment. Kuwait Derived from official CBR = 35.55 (1980-85). Lao People's Dem. Republic Bank estimate. Lebanon UN 1984 assessment. Lesotho From 1977 World Fertility Survey, assuming a very small decrease for 1985- 90. Liberia UN 1984 revision. Libya UN 1984 revision. Liechtenstein Bank estimate. Luxembourg Derived from CBR = 11.1 (1985). Macao Derived from CBR = 23 for 1985 (US/BOC, 1985). Madagascar Bank estimate based on 1980 survey. Malawi Based on information from 1977 census Analytical Report Malaysia 1980-85 UN 1984 revision, adjusted slightly for migration, 1985-90 Bank projection. Maldives Bank estimate. Mali Bank estimate (SSA Background Paper, based on 1960/61 survey and 1976 census age data). Malta Derived from CBR = 14.2 (1985). Martinique 1980-85 from UN assessment, 1985, 1985-90 adjusted to get desired CBR. Mauritania Bank estimate (SSA Background Paper based on 1965 survey and 1957 survey of Fonta Zore region). 47 Table A2. Sources of Fertility Data (cont.) Country Source Mauritius Estimated using the official CBR = 19 for 1985. Mexico 1980-85 from UN 1984 revisicn, 1985-90 Bank projection. Midway Islands Bank estimate. Monaco Bank estimate. Mongolia UN 1984 revision. Montserrat Bank estimate. Morocco 1980-85 from UN 1984 revision, 1985-90, bank projection. Mozambique Estimated to get specific growth rate. Namibia UN 1984 revision. Nauru Bank estimate. Nepal 1980-85 from UN 1984 assessment, Bank projection for 1985-90. Netherlands Antilles Based on 1985 estimate of CBR from US/BOC, 1985. Netherlands, The Derived from CBR = 12.1 for 1985 (PVSR 7/86). New Caledonia 1980-85 from PVSR, 1984 special supplement, Bank projection for 1985-90. New Zealand Derived from CBR = 15.9 (PVSR 7/86). Nicaragua 1980-85 from UN 1984 revision. 1985-90 Bank projection. Niger Bank estimate (SSABP based on 1959/60 survey and 1977 census age data). Nigeria Official estimate (from economist). Niue Bank estimate. Norway Derived from CBR = 12.4 for 1985 (PVSR 7/86). Oman UN 1984 revision. Pacific Is., Trust Terr. 1980-85 based on US/BOC sources, 1985-90 Bank projection. Pakistan World Fertility Survey for 1980-85, assuming low decline for 1985-90. Panama 1980-85 UN 1984 revision, 1985-90 Bank projection. Papua New Guinea UN 1984 revision. Paraguay CELADE printout 2/87 Peru 1980-85 Bank estimate, 1985-90 Bank projection. Philippines Bank estimate based on National Demographic Survey (1983). Pitcairn Island Bank estimate. Poland Derived from CBR = 18.2, 1985 (PVSR 7/86). Portugal Derived from CBR = 12.3, 1985 (PVSR 7/86). Puerto Rico 1980-85 from PVSR (1984 special supplement), 1985-90 Bank projection). Qatar UN 1984 revision. Reunion Based on official data. Romania Derived from CBR = 15.5, 1984 (PVSR 7/86). Rwanda Bank estimate (SSA Background Paper). San Marino Bank estimate. Sao Tom6 and Principe 1980-85 estimated from CBR : 38.7 for 1980-85 (PVSR, 1984 special supplement) 1985-90 Bank projection. Saudi Arabia 1980-85 UN 1984 revision. 1985-90 Bank projection. Senegal Bank estimate, average of 1978 World Fertility Survey fertility rate (7.15) and 1970-71 survey rate (6.16). Seychelles 1980-85 estimated from CBRs (PVSR 1984 Special Supplement and PVSR 1985-87-). Sierra eone Based on 1974 census data. Singapore Based on official estimate of birth rate. Solomon Islands US/BOC, 1985. 48 Table A2. Sources of Fertility Data (cont.) Country Source Somalia Bank estimate (SSA Background Paper). South Africa UN 1984 revision. Spain Derived from CBR = 12.5 (1983). Sri Lanka Official estimate. St. Helena Bank estimate. St. Kitts and Nevis Based on official data (Statistics Office, Planning Unit , and ECCM Secretariat). St. Lucia Based on official data (Government Statistical Office and DECS). St. Pierre and Miquelon Bank estimate. St. Vincent 1980-85 from Bank report (No. 5241 - STV, 1984) 1985-90 Bank projection. Sudan 1980-85 from the UN 1984 revision. 1985-90, Bank projection. Suriname UN 1982 revision. Swaziland Bank estimate. Sweden Derived from CBR = 11.8, 1985 (PVSR 7/86). Switzerland Derived from CBR = 11.6 (PVSR 7/86). Syrian Arab Republic 1980-85 UN 1984 revision. 1985-90 Bank projection. Taiwan Derived from CBR = 19.0 (US/BOC, 1985). Tanzania Bank estimate (SSA Bank paper). Thailand 1980-85 official estimate (NESDB, Thailand), TFR 1985-90 adjusted upward to get r = 1.95%. Togo Estimated from 1961 and 1971 census data. Tokelau Bank estimate. Tonga 1980-85 based on CBR, 1985-90 Bank projection. Trinidad and Tobago 1980-85 from UN 1984 revision, Bank projection for 1985-90. Tunisia 1980-85 from the UN 1984 revision, Bank projection for 1985-90. Turkey 1980-85 from UN 1983 revision, 1985-90 Bank projection. Turks and Caicos Is. Bank estimate. Tuvalu Bank estimate. Uganda Bank estimates, based on the population growth rate of 3%. United Arab Emirates 1980-85 UN 1984 revision, 1985-90 Bank projections. United Kingdom Derived from CBR = 12.9. United States of America TFR 1981-84 from UN/BOC 1985, #980. CBR 1985 from PVSR 7/1986 (official). Uruguay 1980-85 from CELADE printout 2/87, 1985-90 Bank projection. USSR Bank estimate based on official CBR. Vanuatu Bank estimate. Venezuela 1980-85 from UN 1984 revision, Bank projection for 1985-90. Viet Nam Bank estimate for 1980-85 and then projected to 1985-90. Virgin Islands (US) Derived from CBR = 25 for 1985 (US/BOC, 1985). Wake Island Bank estimate. Wallis and Futuna Bank estimate. Western Sahara Bank estimate. Western Samoa US/BOC, 1985. Yemen,.Arab Republic Based on World Fertility Survey. Yemen, People's Dem. Rep. Bank estimate to reconcile with population growth rates and rates in neighboring states. Yugoslavia Derived from CBR = 15.9 for 1985 (PVSR 7/86). 49 Table A2. Sources of Fertility Data (cont.) Country Source Zaire UN 1984 revision. Zambia 1980-85 Bank estimate (PHN Sector Report, Oct., 1983), 1985-90 Bank projection. Zimbabwe Bank estimate based on past rates and recent CPR of 26%. For notes and abbreviations, see Table Al. 50 Table A3. Sources of Mortality Data Country Source Afghanistan Bank estimate Albania 1980-85 based on official vital statistics, but adjusted to coincide with observed growth rate, 1985-90 Bank projection. Algeria 1980-85 from UN 1984 revision, 1985-90 Bank projection. American Samoa Bank estimate. Andorra Bank estimate. Angola Bank estimate. Anguilla Bank estimate. Antigua and Barbuda 1980-85 derived from CDR = 5.2 (PVSR 7/86), 1985-90 Bank projection. Argentina 1980-85 from UN 1984 revision, 1985-90 Bank projection. Australia PVSR 7/86 (latest official estimate). Austria Derived from official estimate of CDR = 11.8 for 1985, and adjusted to produce the given growth rate. Bahamas Derived from official CDR of 5.6 for 1985 (PVSR 4/87). Bahrain 1980-85 from UN 1984 revision, 1985-90 Bank projection. Bangladesh Bank estimate with adjustment of survival ratio, and using the M:F ratio from Census Analytical Report. Barbados 1980-85 from UN 1984 revision, 1985-90 Bank projection. Belgium Derived from CDR = 11.2, 1985 (PVSR 7/86). Belize Derived from CDR = 7 for 1985 (US/BOC, 1985). Benin Estimated from child survival data from WFS (1979). Bermuda Bank estimate. Bhutan Estimated from rough estimate of CDR of 21 for 1980-85. Bolivia UN 1984 revision. Small difference in 1985 is due to difference in methodology. Botswana Estimated from official data (Statistical Bulletin, March 1985, CSO, Botswana). Brazil 1980-85 from UN revision, 1985-90 Bank projection. British Virgin Islands Bank estimate. Brunei Estimated, using a reported CDR of 3.9 for 1985. Bulgaria Estimated from CDR = 12.0 for 1985 (PVSR 7/86) and CDR = 11.23 for 1980-84. Burkina Faso Bank Source (SSA Background Paper). Burma 1980-85 from UN 1984 revision, 1985-90, Bank projection. Burundi Bank estimate (SSA Background Paper). Cameroon Bank estimate based on WFS Child survival rates. Canada Official estimate. (UNDY, 1984). Cape Verde Bank estimate based on CDR given by government. Cayman Islands Bank estimate. Central African Rep. Estimated from child survival data in the 1975 census. Chad UN 1984 revision. Channel Islands Estimated, using CDR'= 11.4 for 1985 (PVSR 7/86). Chile UN 1984 revision with slight adjustment for official estimate of CDR. China Estimated, using CDR of 6.6. Colombi!a From economist. Comoros PHN sector report. Congo, People's Rep. Bank estimate (SSA Background Paper). 51 Table A3. Sources of Mortality Data (cont.) Country Source Cook Islands Bank estimate. Costa Rica 1980-85 UN 1984 revision, 1985-90 Bank projections. C6te d'Ivoire Bank estimate (Sector Report). Cuba UN 1984 revision. Cyprus UN 1984 revision. Czechoslovakia Derived from CDR = 11.8 (1935). Denmark Derived from CDR = 11.2. Djibouti Ethiopian rates used. Dominica 1980-85 based on information given to economist by MOH, 1985-90 Bank projection. Dominican Republic CELADE printout 2/87. Ecuador 1980-85 data from 1984 UN revision. 1985-90 Bank projection. Egypt, Arab Republic Based on official CDR. El Salvador CELADE printout 2/87. Equatorial Guinea UN assessment, 1984. Ethiopia Bank estimate, sector report. Faeroe Islands Bank estimate. Falkland Is. (Malvinas) Bank estimate. Fiji Bank estimate. Finland Derived from CDR 9.2 for 1984. France Derived from CDR = 10.1 for 1985 (PVSR 7/86). French Guiana Bank estimate. French Polynesia Derived from CDRs = 5.2 for 1984 (PVSR 1/87) and 5.0 for 1985 (US/BOC, 1985). Gabon Bank estimate (SSA Background Paper). Gambia, The Bank estimate (SSA Background Paper). Gaza Strip UN 1984 revision. German Democratic Rep. Derived from CDR = 13.57 for 1985. Germany, Federal Rep. Derived from CDR = 11.5 for 1985. Ghana UN 1984 revision. Gibraltar Bank estimate. Greece Derived from CDR = 9.3 (1935). Greenland Bank estimate. Grenada Figures interpolated, using 1980-85 and 1985-90 figures from 1985 World Population Projections. Guadeloupe UN 1984 revision. Guam Estimated to get desired CDR. Guatemala 1980-85 UN 1984 revision, 1985-90 Bank projections. Guinea UN 1984 revision. Guinea-Bissau Same as Guinea. Guyana UN 1984 revision. Haiti CELADE printout 2/87. Holy See Bank estimate. Honduras CELADE printout 2/87. Hong Kgng Estimated from CDR = 4.9. Hungary Derived from CDR = 13.7 (1985). 52 Table A3. Sources of Mortality Data (cont.) Country Source Iceland Derived from CDR = 7.1 (1985). India Adjusted SRS rate. Indonesia Based on census. Iran, Islamic Republic UN 1984 revision. Iraq UN 1984 revision. Ireland Derived from CDR = 9.0, 1985 (PVSR 7/86). Isle of Man Bank estimate. Israel Estimated, based on official statistics. Italy Derived from CDR = 9.5 for 1985, (PVSR 7/85). Jamaica UN assessment, 1984. Japan Estimated on the basis of reported CDR = 6.2 for 1980-85. Johnston Island Bank estimate. Jordan UN 1984 revision. Kampuchea, Democratic UN assessment, 1984. Kenya 1980-85 based on various national surveys and 1985-90 Bank projection, assuming smooth future increase. Kiribati Estimated from CDR = 14 for 1985 (US/BOC, 1985). Korea, Dem. People's Rep. UN 1984 revision. Korea, Rep. of UN 1984 revision. Kuwait Derived from official CDR = 3.2 (1980-84). Lao People's Dem. Rep. Bank estimate. Lebanon UN 1984 assessment. Lesotho From 1977 WFS, E(0) assumed to increase at normal rate. Liberia UN 1984 revision. Libya UN 1984 revision. Liechtenstein Bank estimate. Luxembourg Derived from CDR = 10.8 (1985). Macao Derived from CDR = 6 for 1985 (US/BOC, 1985). Madagascar Bank estimate using 1980 and 1984 surveys. Malawi Bank estimate using 1977 census data (SSA Background Paper). Malaysia 1980-85 UN 1984 revision, 1985-90 Bank projection. Maldives Bank estimate. Mali Bank estimate (SSA Background Paper, using 1960/61 survey and 1976 census age data). Malta Derived from CDR = 7.4 (1985). Martinique 1980-85 UN assessment, 1985. 1985-90 Bank projection. Mauritania Bank estimate (SSA Background Paper based on 1965 survey). Mauritius Estimated using official CDR = 6.8 for 1985. Mexico 1980-85 CELADE printout 2/87, 1985-90 Bank projection. Midway Islands Bank estimate. Monaco Bank estimate. Mongolia UN 1984 revision. Montserrat Bank estimate. Morocco 1980-85 UN 1984 revision, 1985-90 bank projection. Mozambique UN 1984 revision. Namibia UN 1984 revision. 53 Table A3. Sources of Mortality Data (cont.) Country Source Nauru Bank estimate. Nepal 1980-85 UN 1984 revision, 1985-90 Bank projection. Netherlands Antilles Based on 1985 estimate of CDR from US/BOC, 1985. Netherlands, The Derived from CDR = 8.5, 1985 (PVSR 7/86). New Caledonia 1980-85 from PVSR, 1984 special supplement, 1985-90 from Bank projections. New Zealand Derived from CDR = 8.4 (PVSR 7/86, latest official). Nicaragua 1980-85 UN 1984 revision, 1985-90 Bank projection. Niger UN 1984 revision. Nigeria From the UN Population Division (1983 printout). Niue Bank estimate. Norway Derived from CDR = 10.6, 1985 (PVSR 7/86). Oman UN 1984 revision. Pacific Is., Trust Terr. 1980-85 based on US/BOC sources, 1980-85 Bank projection. Pakistan 1980-85 UN 1984 revision, 1985-90 Bank projection. Panama 1980-85 UN 1984 revision, 1985-90 Bank projection. Papua New Guinea UN 1984 revision. Paraguay CELADE printout 2/87. Peru 1980-85 Bank estimate 1985-90, Bank projection. Philippines Bank estimate based on National Demographic Survey (1983). Pitcairn Island Bank estimate. Poland Derived from CDR = 10.3 for 1985 (PVSR 7/86). Portugal Derived from CDR = 9.6 for 1985 (PVSR 7/86). Puerto Rico 1980-85 from PVSR 1984 (special supplement), 1985-90 Bank projection. Qatar UN 1984 revision. Reunion Based on official data. Romania Derived from CDR = 10.3 for 1984 (PVSR 7/86). Rwanda UN 1984 revision. San Marino Bank estimate. Sao Tome and Principe 1980-85 estimated from CDR = 10.2 for 1980-85 (PVSR 1984 special supplement) 1985-90 Bank projection. Saudi Arabia 1980-85 UN 1984 revision, L985-90 Bank projection. Senegal Estimated from WFS, 1978. Seychelles Estimated from CDRs (PVSR L984 special supplement and 1985-87). Sierra Leone From 1974 census child sur,ival data. Singapore Based on official estimate of death rate. Solomon Islands US/BOC, 1985 Somalia Bank estimate (SSA Background Paper). South Africa UN 1984 revision. Spain Derived from CDR = 7.8 for 1983. Sri Lanka Official estimate. St. Helena Bank estimate. St. Kitts and Nevis Based on official data (Statistics Office, Planning Unit, and ECCM Secretariat). St. Lucia Based on official data (Government Statistical Office and DECS). St. Pierre and Miquelon Bank estimate. St. Vincent 1980-85 from Bank report (No. 5241-STV, 1984), 1985-90 Bank projection. 54 Table A3. Sources of Mortality Data (cont.) Country Source Sudan 1980-85 UN 1984 revision, 1985-90 Bank projection. Suriname Estimated from official CDR. Swaziland Bank estimate. Sweden Derived from CDR = 11.3, 1985 (PVSR 7/86). Switzerland Derived from CDR = 9.1 (PVSR 7/86). Syrian Arab Republic 1980-85 UN 1984 revision, 1985-90 Bank projection. Taiwan Derived from CDR = 5.0, 1985. (US/BOC, 1985). Tanzania UN 1984 revision. Thailand Official estimate (NESDB, Thailand). Togo Based on child survival estimates from 1961 and 1971 census data. Tokelau Bank estimate. Tonga 1980-85 estimated from CDR, 1985-90 Bank projection. Trinidad and Tobago 1980-85 UN 1984 revision, 1985-90 Bank projection. Tunisia Bank estimate based on government figures. Turkey UN 1982 revision and Bank estimate. Turks and Caicos Is. Bank estimate. Tuvalu Bank estimate. USSR UN 1984 revision up to 1980 and Bank estimate based on official CDR. Uganda Bank estimates, based on a population growth rate of 3%. United Arab Emirates 1980-85 UN 1984 revision, 1985-90 Bank projection. United Kingdom Derived from CDR = 11.4. United States of America Estimated, based on CDR = 8.7 or 1984 (Annual Summary Monthly Vital Statistics Report 1984 and CDR = 8.8 for 1985 (PVSR 7/86). Uruguay 1980-85 CELADE printout 2/87, 1985-90 Bank projection. USSR UN Pop. Div. World Population Prospects, 1980. Vanuatu Bank estimate. Venezuela 1980-85 UN 1984 revision, 1985-90 Bank projection. Viet Nam Bank estimate for 1980-85, then projected to 1985-90. Virgin Islands (US) Derived from CDR = 5 for 1985 (US/BOC, 1985). Wake Island Bank estimate. Wallis and Futuna Bank estimate. Western Sahara Bank estimate. Western Samoa US/BOC, 1985 Yemen, Arab Republic Based on WFS. Yemen, People's Dem. Rep. Bank estimate to reconcile with population growth rates and rates in neighbouring states. Yugoslavia Derived from CDR = 9.1 for 1985 (PVSR 7/86). Zaire UN 1984 revision. Zambia 1975-80 UN 1984 revision, projected to 1985-90 using Bank mortality schedule. Zimbabwe UN 1984 revision. For notes and abbreviations, see Table Al. 55 Table B. Population Estimates, World Bank and U.N., 1985, 2000, and 2025 1985 2000 2025 Percentage Diff. Countries WB UN WB UN WB UN 1985 2000 2025 Afghanistan 18,087 16,519 25,378 26,035 40,847 37,917 -8.7 2.6 -7.2 Albania 2,962 3,050 3,893 4,102 5,078 5,772 3.0 5.4 13.7 Algeria 21,905 21,718 33,585 33,444 54,354 50,611 -0.9 -0.4 -6.9 Angola 8,754 8,754 13,266 13,234 23,030 24,482 0.0 -0.2 6.3 Argentina 30,564 30,564 36,581 37,197 44,917 47,421 0.0 1.7 5.6 Australia 15,752 15,698 18,169 18,628 20,171 22,575 -0.3 2.5 11.9 Austria 7,555 7,502 7,540 7,517 7,356 7,279 -0.7 -0.3 -1.0 Bahrain 417 432 604 693 786 1,075 3.6 14.7 36.8 Bangladesh 100,592 101,147 139,762 145,800 204,752 219,383 0.6 4.3 7.1 Belgium 9,857 9,903 9,825 10,011 9,524 10,054 0.5 1.9 5.6 Benin 4,043 4,050 6,474 6,532 11,563 12,701 0.2 0.9 9.8 Bhutan 1,240 1,417 1,74. 1,893 2,684 2,662 14.3 8.5 -0.8 Bolivia 6,383 6,371 9,172 9,724 14,496 18,294 -0.2 6.0 26.2 Botswana 1,070 1,107 1,712 1,917 2,903 4,151 3.5 12.0 43.0 Brazil 135,564 135,564 178,369 179,487 236,116 245,809 0.0 0.6 4.1 Brunei 224 232 342 354 460 431 3.6 3.5 -6.3 Bulgaria 8,957 9,071 9,243 9,535 9,420 10,070 1.3 3.2 6.9 Burkina Faso 7,885 6,942 12,101 10,538 21,924 20,106 -12.0 -12.9 -8.3 Burma 36,943 37,153 48,770 48,499 66,663 65,960 0.6 -0.6 -1.1 Burundi 4,696 4,721 7,370 7,226 13,242 11,817 0.5 -2.0 -10.8 Cameroon 10,191 9,873 16,680 15,168 30,133 27,763 -3.1 -9.1 -7.9 Canada 25,379 25,426 28,372 28,927 30,701 33,261 0.2 2.0 8.3 Central African Rep. 2,583 2,576 3,96Z 3,750 6,828 6,339 -0.3 -5.4 -7.2 Chad 5,018 5,018 7,281 7,308 12,086 12,356 0.0 0.4 2.2 Chile 12,074 12,030 14,553 14,792 17,637 18,301 -0.4 1.7 3.8 China 1,040,035 1,059,521 1,274,411 1,255,895 1,537,267 1,475,159 1.9 -1.5 -4.0 Colombia 28,418 28,714 36,831 37,999 48,300 51,718 1.0 3.2 7.1 Comoros 454 444 764 695 1,394 1,046 -2.2 -9.0 -25.0 Congo, People's Rep. 1,872 1,740 3,176 2,643 5,617 4,732 -7.1 -16.8 -15.8 Costa Rica 2,600 2,600 3,481 3,596 4,631 5,099 0.0 3.3 10.1 Cote d'Ivoire 10,072 9,810 16,412 16,006 28,007 29,978 -2.6 -2.5 7.0 Cuba 10,090 10,038 11,690 11,718 13,614 13,575 -0.5 0.2 -0.3 Cyprus 665 669 747 762 852 902 0.6 2.0 5.9 Czechoslovakia 15,493 15,579 16,322 16,581 17,369 18,157 0.6 1.6 4.5 Denmark 5,114 5,122 5,036 5,082 4,790 4,690 0.2 0.9 -2.1 Dominican Rep. 6,416 6,243 8,6E5 8,407 11,759 12,154 -2.7 -2.9 3.4 Ecuador 9,378 9,378 13,569 13,939 19,678 22,910 0.0 2.7 16.4 Egypt, Arab Rep. of 48,503 46,909 67,278 63,941 97,025 90,399 -3.3 -5.0 -6.8 El Salvador 4,768 5,552 6,368 8,708 9,341 15,048 16.4 36.7 61.1 Equatorial Guinea 373 392 536 559 879 937 5.1 4.3 6.6 Ethiopia 42,271 43,557 65,073 66,509 112,653 122,285 3.0 2.2 8.6 Fiji 697 691 848 834 1,106 953 -0.9 -1.7 -13.8 Finland 4,908 4,891 5,1L9 5,055 5,140 4,994 -0.3 -1.3 -2.8 France 55,172 54,621 58,767 57,162 61,806 58,431 -1.0 -2.7 -5.5 Gabon 997 1,151 1,500 - 1,603 2,568 2,607 15.4 6.9 1.5 Gambia, The 748 643 1,144 898 1,870 1,494 -14.0 -21.5 -20.1 German Democratic Rep. 16,644 16,766 16,677 17,149 16,489 17,570 0.7 2.8 6.6 Germany, Federal Rep. of 61,015 60,877 58,952 59,484 52,822 53,490 -0.2 0.9 1.3 Ghana 12,710 13,588 20,2105 22,607 35,106 47,020 6.9 11.9 33.9 Greece 9,935 9,878 10,476 10,437 10,856 10,789 -0.6 -0.4 -0.6 56 Table B. Population EstA - Les. World Bank and U.N., 1985, 2000, and 2025 (cont.) 1985 2000 2025 Percentage Diff. Countries 6B UN WB UN W8 UN 1985 2000 2025 Guatemala 7.963 7,963 11,533 12,222 17,931 21,668 0.0 6.0 20.8 Guinea 6,166 6,075 8,805 8,879 14,659 15,561 -1.5 0.8 6.2 Guiniea-Bissau 886 889 1,226 1,229 1,963 2,014 0.3 0.2 2.6 Guyana 790 953 922 1,196 1,218 1,562 20.6 29.7 28.2 Haiti 5,922 6,585 7,864 9,860 11,282 18,312 11.2 25.4 62.3 Honduras 4,383 4,372 6,825 6,978 10,715 13,293 -0.3 2.2 24.1 Hong Kong 5,423 5,548 6,314 6,775 7,084 7,617 2.3 7.3 7.5 Hungary 10,649 10,697 10,508 10,714 10,186 10,598 0.5 2.0 4.0 India 765,147 758,927 995,793 964,072 1,311,746 1,228,829 -0.8 -3.2 -6.3 Indonesia 162,212 166,440 212,407 211,367 282,624 272,744 2.6 -0.5 -3.5 Irano, Islamic Rep. of 44,632 44,632 69,331 65,161 107,603 97,011 0.0 -6.0 -9.8 Iraq 15,898 15,898 27,096 25,377 47,331 43,520 0.0 -6.3 -8.1 Ireland 3,552 3,608 4,018 4,320 4,742 5,326 1.6 7.5 12.3 Israel 4,233 4,252 5,234 5,302. 6,603 6,865 0.4 1.3 4.0 Italy 57,128 57,300 57,691 58,642 56,037 57,178 0.3 1.6 2.0 Jamaica 2,227 2,336 2,698 2,880 3,505 3,704 4.9 6.7 5.7 Japan 120,754 120,742 128,591 129,725 130,254 132,082 0.0 0.9 1.4 Jordar 3,505 3,515 5,514 6,437 8,656 13,611 0.3 16.7 57.2 a,pachea, Democratic 7,282 7,284 9,732 9,772 13,349 12,337 0.0 0.4 -7.6 \enva 20,375 20,600 36,452 38,534 69,875 82,850 1.1 5.7 18.6 orea, Dem. People's Rep. 20,385 20,385 27,534 28,166 37,150 39,594 0.0 2.3 6.6 G.ea, Rep. of 41,056 41,258 49,368 50,981 59,039 61,572 0.5 3.3 4.3 1,710 1,811 2,623 3,007 3,633 4,828 5.9 14.6 32.9 People's Dem. Rep. 3,609 4,117 5,373 5,789 9,301 8,576 14.1 7.7 -7.8 Labanon 2,668 2,668 2,947 3,617 3,935 5,221 0.0 22.7 32.7 Lesotho 1,545 1,520 2,302 2,255 3,823 3,877 -1.6 -2.0 1.4 -iberia 2,204 2,191 3,546 3,615 6,404 7,517 -0.6 1.9 17.4 Libya 3,764 3,605 6,533 6,082 11,314 11,090 -4.2 -6.9 -2.0 'iadagascar 10,212 10,012 16,330 15,550 29,687 28,120 -2.0 -4.8 -5.3 Ialawi 7,044 6,944 11,351 11,387 20,637 21,855 -1.4 0.3 5.9 -talavsia 15,571 15,557 20,691 20,497 27,455 26,844 -0.1 -0.9 -2.2 -1aldives 183 183 285 283 488 432 0.0 -0.7 -11.5 ialL 7,511 8,082 11,198 12,658 19,829 24,142 7.6 13.0 21.8 -Ialt-, 358 383 359 418 366 459 7.0 16.4 25.4 iaurit-ania 1,693 1,888 2,555 2,998 4,505 5,780 11.5 17.3 28.3 ,aucitius 1,020 1,050 1,212 1,298 1,501 1,606 2.9 7.1 7.0 Mexico 78,820 78,996 109,861 109,180 153,876 154,085 0.2 -0.6 0.1 Mongolia 1,891 1,908 2,718 2,837 3,995 4,539 0.9 4.4 13.6 Morocco 21,925 21,941 31,267 29,512 46,647 40,062 0.1 -5.6 -14.1 Mozambique 13,791 13,961 21,480 21,104 38,143 37,154 1.2 -1.8 -2.6 Namibia 1,127 1,550 1,749 2,415 3,028 4,474 37.5 38.1 47.8 Nepal 16,527 16,482 24,485 23,048 41,077 33,946 -0.3 -5.9 -17.4 Netherlands, The 14,484 14,500 15,169 15,082 15,186 14,691 0.1 -0.6 -3.3 New Zealand 3,254 3,318 3,559 3,749 3,973 4,202 2.0 5.3 5.8 Nicaragua 3,272 3,272 4,985 5,261 7,947 9,219 0.0 5.5 16.0 Niger 6,391 6,115 10,161 9,750 18,864 18,940 -4.3 -4.0 0.4 Nigeria 99,669 .95,198 163,484 161,930 297,944 338,105 -4.5 -1.0 13.5 Norway 4,153 4,142 4,276 4,215 4,354 4,261 -0.3 -1.4 -2.1 Oman 1,242 1,242 1,975 1,973 3,174 3,495 0.0 -0.1 10.1 Pakistan 96,180 100,380 146,158 140,961 241,910 209,976 4.4 -3.6 -13.2 Panama 2,180 2,180 2,791 2,893 3,654 3,862 0.0 3.7 5.7 57 Table B. Population Estimates, World Bank and U.N., 1985, 2000, and 2025 (cont.) 1985 2000 2025 Percentage Diff. Countries WB UN WB UN WB UN 1985 2000 2025 Papua New Guinea 3,511 3,511 4,888 4,933 7,393 7,464 0.0 0.9 1.0 Paraguay 3,693 3,681 5,448 5,405 8,074 8,552 -0.3 -0.8 5.9 Peru 18,612 19,698 25,182 27,952 34,384 41,006 5.8 11.0 19.3 Philippines 54,725 54,498 75,327 74,057 105,227 102,787 -0.4 -1.7 -2.3 Poland 37,203 37,187 40,787 40,816 44,967 45,286 0.0 0.1 0.7 Portugal 10,229 10,212 11,078 11,211 12,119 12,334 -0.2 1.2 1.8 Qatar 315 315 587 569 960 943 0.0 -3.1 -1.8 Reunion 531 531 654 656 800 812 0.0 0.3 1.5 Romania 22,740 23,017 24,413 25,571 26,087 29,247 1.2 4.7 12.1 Rwanda 6,026 6,070 10,240 10,123 20,099 20,212 0.7 -1.1 0.6 Saudi Arabia 11,542 11,542 20,215 19,824 36,657 36,222 0.0 -1.9 -1.2 Senegal 6,567 6,444 10,270 9,765 17,661 17,872 -1.9 -4.9 1.2 Sierra Leone 3,657 3,602 5,339 4,867 9,087 7,416 -1.5 -8.8 -18.4 Singapore 2,558 2,559 2,926 2,947 3,270 3,323 0.0 0.7 1.6 Solomon Islands 273 270 447 447 823 765 -1.1 0.0 -7.0 Somalia 5,384 4,653 8,462 6,671 15,774 12,191 -13.6 -21.2 -22.7 South Africa 32,432 32,392 45,008 46,918 66,144 76,381 -0.1 4.2 15.5 Spain 38,602 38,542 42,06E 42,237 45,567 45,983 -0.2 0.4 0.9 Sri Lanka 15,837 16,205 20,095 19,620 25,903 24,443 2.3 -2.4 -5.6 Sudan 21,931 21,550 33,694 32,926 58,184 55,379 -1.7 -2.3 -4.8 Suriname 393 375 53S 469 730 625 -4.6 -12.0 -14.4 Swaziland 757 650 1,211. 1,048 2,104 2,107 -14.1 -13.5 0.1 Sweden 8,350 8,351 8,309 8,166 8,090 7,707 0.0 -1.7 -4.7 Switzerland 6,458 6,374 6,537 .6,341 6,302 5,784 -1.3 -3.0 -8.2 Syrian Arab Rep. 10,505 10,505 16,517 17,809 26,731 31,758 0.0 7.8 18.8 Tanzania 22,242 22,499 37,046 39,129 68,998 83,805 1.2 5.6 21.5 Thailand 51,700 51,411 65,647 65,503 84,084 85,929 -0.6 -0.2 2.2 Togo 3,038 2,960 4,872 4,709 8,741 8,923 -2.6 -3.3 2.1 Trinidad and Tobago 1,185 1,185 1,476 1,473 1,880 1,897 0.0 -0.2 0.9 Tunisia 7,143 7,081 9,847 9,429 13,791 12,860 -0.9 -4.2 -6.8 Turkey 50,248 49,289 66,803 65,351 88,911 91,925 -1.9 -2.2 3.4 Uganda 14,680 15,477 23,374 26,262 42,005 55,190 5.4 12.4 31.4 United Arab Emirates 1,374 1,327 2,102 1,939 2,686 2,699 -3.4 -7.8 0.5 United Kingdom 56,543 56,125 56,880) 56,354 56,934 55,919 -0.7 -0.9 -1.8 United States of America 239,283 238,020 262,453 268,239 284,654 311,936 -0.5 2.2 9.6 Uruguay 3,012 3,012 3,339 3,364 3,856 3,875 0.0 0.7 0.5 USSR 277,420 278,618 307,737 314,736 344,187 368,234 0.4 2.3 7.0 Vanuatu 131 142 19B 218 344 357 8.4 10.1 3.8 Venezuela 17,317 17,317 23,777 24,715 32,173 37,999 0.0 3.9 18.1 Viet Nam 61,689 59,713 87,887 79,870 126,250 108,462 -3.2 -9.1 -14.1 Western Samoa 160 163 192 180 273 200 1.9 -6.3 -26.7 Yemen Arab Rep. 7,955 6,848 12,335 10,881 21,745 20,773 -13.9 -11.8 -4.5 Yemen, People's Dem. Rep. 2,086 2,137 2,934 3,379 4,544 5,870 2.4 15.2 29.2 Yugoslavia 23,123 23,153 24,829 25,206 26,205 26,756 0.1 1.5 2.1 Zaire 30,557 29,938 47,392 47,581 79,885 90,097 -2.0 0.4 12.8 Zambia 6,704 6,666 11,126 11,237 20,608 23,799 -0.6 1.0 15.5 Zimbabwe 8,406 8,777 13,238 15,130 21,748 32,658 4.4 14.3 50.2 58 Figure CI. Contribution to World Popullation Growth by Bank RegIon. 19.5-90 5.3 m illionAF 167V - 14,4 milhon . 1..... E÷÷÷÷-::÷÷: ÷ ÷÷÷÷÷÷.m..n Figure C2. Contribution to World Population Growth by Bark Rgon. 2000 r- .r. . . .1 n ................. ...... . . . ... 4Etý .........~~ ~ ~- ............... ........