FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No: PAD4722 INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION PROJECT APPRAISAL DOCUMENT ON A PROPOSED GRANT IN THE AMOUNT OF SDR 14.5 MILLION (US$20 MILLION EQUIVALENT) AND A PROPOSED CREDIT IN THE AMOUNT OF SDR 14.5 MILLION (US$20 MILLION EQUIVALENT) TO THE REPUBLIC OF LIBERIA FOR A LIBERIA URBAN RESILIENCE PROJECT APRIL 26, 2022 Urban, Resilience and Land Global Practice Western and Central Africa Region This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Exchange Rate Effective March 31, 2022 Currency Unit = Special Drawing Right (SDR) 0.72337963 SDR = US$1 FISCAL YEAR January 1 - December 31 Regional Vice President: Ousmane Diagana Country Director: Pierre Frank Laporte Regional Director: Simeon Kacou Ehui Practice Manager: Sylvie Debomy Task Team Leaders: Robert Reid, Linus Pott ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS AAD Annual Average Damage AAP Annual Affected Population AFD Agence Française de Développement (French Development Agency) CERC Contingent Emergency Response Component CLUS Cheesemanburg Landfill and Urban Sanitation Project COVID-19 Coronavirus Disease 2019 CPF Country Partnership Framework DA Designated Account E&S Environmental and Social EPA Environmental Protection Agency ESF Environmental and Social Framework ESMF Environmental and Social Management Framework ESMP Environmental and Social Management Plan ESS Environmental and Social Standard FA Financing Agreement FM Financial Management GAC General Audit Commission GBV Gender Based Violence GDP Gross Domestic Product GFDRR Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery GHG Greenhouse Gases GM Grievance Mechanism GRS Grievance Redress Services HOT Humanitarian OpenStreetMap Team IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction and Development ICR Implementation, Completion, and Results Report IDA International Development Association IFR Interim Financial Report IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPF Investment Project Financing IRR Internal Rate of Return JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency LISGIS Liberia Institute of Statistics and Geo-Information Services LLA Liberia Land Authority LMA Liberia Marketing Association LMP Labor Management Procedures LURP Liberia Urban Resilience Project LUWS Liberia Urban Water Supply Project LWSC Liberia Water and Sewer Corporation M&E Monitoring and Evaluation MCC Monrovia City Corporation MFDP Ministry of Finance and Development Planning MIA Ministry of Internal Affairs MPW Ministry of Public Works MTR Mid-Term Review NDMA National Disaster Risk Management Agency NPV Net Present Value O&M Operations and Maintenance PAPD Pro- Poor Agenda for Prosperity and Development PCC Paynesville City Corporation PDO Project Development Objective PFMU Project Financial Management Unit PIM Project Implementation Manual PMU Project Management Unit PPSD Project Procurement Strategy for Development PSC Project Steering Committee PTC Project Technical Committee RAP Resettlement Action Plan RCP Representative Concentration Pathway RPF Resettlement Policy Framework SEA Sexual Exploitation Abuse SH Sexual Harassment SEP Stakeholder Engagement Plan STEP Systematic Tracking of Exchanges in Procurement SWM Solid Waste Management TOR Terms of Reference TTL Task Team Leader UN-Habitat United Nations Human Settlements Programme USAID United States Agency for International Development The World Bank Liberia Urban Resilience Project (P169718) TABLE OF CONTENTS DATASHEET ........................................................................................................................... 1 I. STRATEGIC CONTEXT ...................................................................................................... 7 A. Country Context................................................................................................................................ 7 B. Sectoral and Institutional Context .................................................................................................... 8 C. Relevance to Higher Level Objectives............................................................................................. 15 II. PROJECT DESCRIPTION.................................................................................................. 17 A. Project Development Objective (PDO) ........................................................................................... 17 B. Project Components ....................................................................................................................... 17 C. Project Beneficiaries ....................................................................................................................... 21 D. Results Chain .................................................................................................................................. 22 E. Rationale for World Bank Involvement and Role of Partners......................................................... 23 F. Lessons Learned and Reflected in the Project Design .................................................................... 25 III. IMPLEMENTATION ARRANGEMENTS ............................................................................ 26 A. Institutional and Implementation Arrangements .......................................................................... 26 B. Results Monitoring and Evaluation Arrangements......................................................................... 27 C. Sustainability................................................................................................................................... 28 IV. PROJECT APPRAISAL SUMMARY ................................................................................... 28 A. Technical and Economic Analysis ................................................................................................... 28 B. Fiduciary.......................................................................................................................................... 33 C. Legal Operational Policies ............................................................................................................... 34 D. Environmental and Social ............................................................................................................... 34 V. GRIEVANCE REDRESS SERVICES ..................................................................................... 37 VI. KEY RISKS ..................................................................................................................... 38 VII. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND MONITORING ................................................................... 40 ANNEX 1: Implementation Arrangements and Support Plan .......................................... 47 ANNEX 2: Detailed Project Design ................................................................................. 59 ANNEX 3: Economic Analysis ......................................................................................... 65 ANNEX 4: Climate Change Assessment .......................................................................... 69 The World Bank Liberia Urban Resilience Project (P169718) DATASHEET BASIC INFORMATION BASIC_INFO_TABLE Country(ies) Project Name Liberia Liberia Urban Resilience Project Project ID Financing Instrument Environmental and Social Risk Classification Investment Project P169718 Substantial Financing Financing & Implementation Modalities [ ] Multiphase Programmatic Approach (MPA) [✓] Contingent Emergency Response Component (CERC) [ ] Series of Projects (SOP) [ ] Fragile State(s) [ ] Performance-Based Conditions (PBCs) [ ] Small State(s) [ ] Financial Intermediaries (FI) [ ] Fragile within a non-fragile Country [ ] Project-Based Guarantee [ ] Conflict [ ] Deferred Drawdown [ ] Responding to Natural or Man-made Disaster [ ] Alternate Procurement Arrangements (APA) [ ] Hands-on Enhanced Implementation Support (HEIS) Expected Approval Date Expected Closing Date 17-May-2022 30-Jun-2028 Bank/IFC Collaboration No Proposed Development Objective(s) The Project Development Objective (PDO) is to increase flood resilience and access to urban infrastructure in selected neighborhoods and to improve urban management in Liberia. Page 1 of 73 The World Bank Liberia Urban Resilience Project (P169718) Components Component Name Cost (US$, millions) Climate Resilient Infrastructure and Urban Upgrading 30.00 Strengthening Integrated Resilient Urban Development Capacity 6.00 Project Management 4.00 Contingent Emergency Response Component 0.00 Organizations Borrower: Republic of Liberia Implementing Agency: Ministry of Public Works PROJECT FINANCING DATA (US$, Millions) SUMMARY -NewFin1 Total Project Cost 40.00 Total Financing 40.00 of which IBRD/IDA 40.00 Financing Gap 0.00 DETAILS -NewFinEnh1 World Bank Group Financing International Development Association (IDA) 40.00 IDA Credit 20.00 IDA Grant 20.00 IDA Resources (in US$, Millions) Credit Amount Grant Amount Guarantee Amount Total Amount Liberia 20.00 20.00 0.00 40.00 Page 2 of 73 The World Bank Liberia Urban Resilience Project (P169718) National PBA 20.00 20.00 0.00 40.00 Total 20.00 20.00 0.00 40.00 Expected Disbursements (in US$, Millions) WB Fiscal Year 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 Annual 0.00 3.66 4.43 6.23 6.37 6.96 7.69 Cumulative 0.00 3.66 8.09 14.32 20.69 27.65 35.34 INSTITUTIONAL DATA Practice Area (Lead) Contributing Practice Areas Urban, Resilience and Land Climate Change and Disaster Screening This operation has been screened for short and long-term climate change and disaster risks SYSTEMATIC OPERATIONS RISK-RATING TOOL (SORT) Risk Category Rating 1. Political and Governance ⚫ Substantial 2. Macroeconomic ⚫ Moderate 3. Sector Strategies and Policies ⚫ Moderate 4. Technical Design of Project or Program ⚫ Substantial 5. Institutional Capacity for Implementation and Sustainability ⚫ High 6. Fiduciary ⚫ Substantial 7. Environment and Social ⚫ Substantial 8. Stakeholders ⚫ Substantial 9. Other 10. Overall ⚫ Substantial Page 3 of 73 The World Bank Liberia Urban Resilience Project (P169718) COMPLIANCE Policy Does the project depart from the CPF in content or in other significant respects? [ ] Yes [✓] No Does the project require any waivers of Bank policies? [ ] Yes [✓] No Environmental and Social Standards Relevance Given its Context at the Time of Appraisal E & S Standards Relevance Assessment and Management of Environmental and Social Risks and Impacts Relevant Stakeholder Engagement and Information Disclosure Relevant Labor and Working Conditions Relevant Resource Efficiency and Pollution Prevention and Management Relevant Community Health and Safety Relevant Land Acquisition, Restrictions on Land Use and Involuntary Resettlement Relevant Biodiversity Conservation and Sustainable Management of Living Natural Relevant Resources Indigenous Peoples/Sub-Saharan African Historically Underserved Traditional Not Currently Relevant Local Communities Cultural Heritage Relevant Financial Intermediaries Not Currently Relevant NOTE: For further information regarding the World Bank’s due diligence assessment of the Project’s potential environmental and social risks and impacts, please refer to the Project’s Appraisal Environmental and Social Review Summary (ESRS). Legal Covenants Sections and Description Page 4 of 73 The World Bank Liberia Urban Resilience Project (P169718) Schedule 2, Section I, 2.(a): The Recipient shall not later than sixty (60) days of the Effective Date, establish a steering committee (“Project Steering Committee), and thereafter, maintain, throughout the period of Project implementation said steering committee with mandate, composition, and resources, satisfactory to the Association (“Project Steering Committee”). Sections and Description Schedule 2, Section I, 3.(b)(i): The Recipient shall throughout the period of Project implementation, maintain the PMU with adequate staffing, including a Project coordinator, two procurement specialists, a finance officer, an environmental specialist, a social development and gender specialist, a communication and community engagement specialist, a lead Project engineer, and a civil engineer, all with experience, qualifications, and terms of reference, satisfactory to the Association. Sections and Description Schedule 2, Section I, 3.(b)(ii): The Recipient shall not later than sixty (60) days of the Effective Date, recruit and thereafter maintain a lead Project engineer, and a civil engineer, all in accordance with the Procurement Regulations Sections and Description Schedule 2, Section I, 4: The Recipient shall within sixty (60) days of the Effective Date, establish a Project technical committee (“Project Technical Committee”) with terms of reference and functions, satisfactory to the Association, and thereafter, maintain said Project Technical Committee with the responsibility for providing guidance on technical discussions and coordination of technical input to terms of references, specifications, evaluation committees, and technical reviews of consultancy outputs. Sections and Description Schedule 2, Section I, 5: The Recipient shall not later than nine (9) months after the Effective Date, recruit a Project management consultancy firm in accordance with the Procurement Regulations, and thereafter, maintain said consultant for the period agreed with the Association. Sections and Description ESCP 4.3: SEA/SH action plan for the Project shall be prepared, disclosed, consulted and adopted within 90 days of project effectiveness and thereafter implement the SEA/SH Action Plan throughout Project implementation Sections and Description ESCP 10.2: Establish functional grievance mechanism with fully trained GRC members on the grievance processing by project effectiveness and thereafter maintain and operate the mechanism throughout Project implementation Conditions Type Financing source Description Effectiveness IBRD/IDA Article IV, 4.01.(a): The Recipient shall prepare and adopt, a Project Implementation Manual, in form and substance satisfactory to the Association Page 5 of 73 The World Bank Liberia Urban Resilience Project (P169718) Type Financing source Description Effectiveness IBRD/IDA Article IV, 4.01.(b): The Recipient shall: (i) establish the Project Management Unit (PMU) with functions, and terms of reference satisfactory to the association; and (ii) hire to the PMU a Project coordinator, two procurement specialists, a finance officer, an environmental specialist, a social development and gender specialist, and a communication and community engagement specialist, all in accordance with the provisions of the Procurement Regulations. Type Financing source Description Disbursement IBRD/IDA Schedule 2, Section III, B, 1..(b): under Category (2) unless the Recipient has prepared, consulted, adopted, and disclosed an umbrella Waste Management Plan based on a feasibility study, acceptable to the Association, for drainage activities under Part A.1 of the Project, in form and substance satisfactory to the Association Type Financing source Description Disbursement IBRD/IDA Schedule 2, Section III, B, 1.(c) (i): Under Category (3) for Emergency Expenditures: (A) the Recipient has determined that an Eligible Crisis or Emergency has occurred, and has furnished to the Association a request to withdraw Financing amounts under Category (3); and (B) the Association has agreed with such determination, accepted said request and notified the Recipient thereof. Page 6 of 73 The World Bank Liberia Urban Resilience Project (P169718) I. STRATEGIC CONTEXT A. Country Context 1. With a gross national income per capita of just US$570 in 20201, which has decreased steadily from $650 in 2013, Liberia is among the ten poorest countries in the world, however, the country is now projecting a growth trajectory, despite multiple setbacks over the past three decades. The country consolidated peace and stability after two devastating civil wars (1989-2003) and recorded a decade of solid economic growth at an annual average growth rate of 7.4 percent during 2004-2013. However, since 2014, Liberia has endured multiple shocks including the regional outbreak of the Ebola Virus Disease, and a sharp decline in global prices of the country’s main exports – rubber and iron ore, which disrupted the growth trajectory and resulted in economic stagnation during 2014-2019. The Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) pandemic further compounded Liberia’s weak economic performance, causing real gross domestic product (GDP) to contract by an estimated 3 percent in 20202, which stalled efforts towards job creation, reversed the declining trend in poverty reduction, constrained domestic resource mobilization, and increased Government expenditures. Consequently, the economy contracted in 2020 amid supply disruption, tight macroeconomic policies, falling global demand for Liberia’s main exports, and stringent measures imposed to contain the pandemic. However, the country’s medium-term growth prospects are expected to improve on the back of macroeconomic stabilization and structural reforms. Growth is expected to pick up, gradually accelerating to 5.2 percent on average during 2022-25 as economic activity picks up in mining, agriculture, and construction.3 2. Liberia’s basic infrastructure and social services remain affected by the civil wars, resulting in poor living conditions for most of the population. The country still faces numerous challenges including environmental degradation, susceptibility to disease and epidemics, exposure to multiple natural disasters, severe deficits in basic service delivery, a highly resource-constrained environment, lagging nutrition and health outcomes, food insecurity, and an economy unable to create sufficient jobs. Liberia has a population of 5.06 million people4 (2021) with a projected population growth rate of 2.4 percent (2020). According to the High Frequency Phone Monitoring Survey report launched in August 2020, three out of four of those in the labor force are self-employed in agriculture (36 percent) or non-agricultural activities (40 percent).5 Most agricultural workers are dependent on subsistence farming, modernization of which is constrained by the lack of physical, financial and human capital. 3. Climate-related hazards are negatively affecting the country’s economy and its population. Liberia receives high rainfall especially along the coast and Monrovia is the wettest capital of the world with a yearly average of more than five meters.6 Severe rainfall events occur during the rainy season 1 World Bank; https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GNP.PCAP.CD?locations=LR 2 World Bank. (2020), Liberia Economic Update, The COVID-19 Crisis in Liberia, Projected Impact and Policy Options for Robust Recovery 3 World Bank (2021) Republic of Liberia: Economic Update, Finding Fiscal Space 4 World Bank Open Data (2021). Population estimates and projections, Liberia. https://databank.worldbank.org/source/population-estimates-and-projections 5 World Bank (2021) Republic of Liberia: Economic Update, Finding Fiscal Space 6 World Bank, Deltares (2021): Flood risk profile for Greater Monrovia Page 7 of 73 The World Bank Liberia Urban Resilience Project (P169718) resulting in localized floods across the country. Climate change is projected to increase temperature7 and impact water availability across Liberia, as well as change the amount and distribution of precipitation with significant inter-annual variability. Climate variability and change is expected to manifest in increased extreme weather events such as heavy rainfall, and storm surges in the next 30 years. 4. Liberia’s population is young and unemployment rates are high, especially among young women. Although fertility rates have been reduced to 4.7 children per woman in 20158, high fertility rates increase demand for healthcare, education and other already constrained social services. Over 70 percent of Liberians are under the age of 35, intensifying demand for jobs, farmland, infrastructure, and public services. Forty-five percent of Greater Monrovia’s population is young (between ages 15 to 40) and 40 percent are below 15 years of age, constituting the next cohort seeking employment opportunities. The Liberian youth account for 85 percent of the unemployed population and are especially vulnerable to social and economic exclusion. High unemployment amongst young women is associated with several factors including lower levels of educational attainment and workforce skills, early marriage and childbearing, as well as other social norms that limit their role as income earners. B. Sectoral and Institutional Context 5. Liberia has experienced a disproportionate rate of urbanization due to rural-urban migration. Six counties, out of fifteen, account for more than 75 percent of the population: Montserrado (32 percent), Nimba (13 percent), Bong (10 percent), Lofa (8 percent), Grand Bassa (6 percent) and Margibi (6 percent).9 The South-Central region is the most densely populated, largely concentrated in Montserrado County which is also home to the nation’s capital Monrovia. The national urban population grew from 1.9 million to 2.6 million between 2010 and 2020 and is projected to almost triple to 6.7 million by 2050. Monrovia grew rapidly over the last four decades, with the urban population increasing from about 80,000 in 1960, to over 1.5 million in 2020.10 The share of the urban population peaked during the initial years of the civil war (58 percent in 1991) as people sought safety in urban areas and Greater Monrovia11 became host to numerous Internally Displaced People.12 Monrovia is considered a primate city and is part the Greater Monrovia area, which consists of the cities of Monrovia, Paynesville and surrounding townships that form the biggest urban agglomeration in Liberia. There are three primary cities outside of Greater Monrovia: Buchanan (South Central), Gbarnga (North Central), and Ganta (North Central), each of which have populations between 40,000 and 100,000 people.13 In addition, there are seven secondary cities with population between 15,000 and 40,000: Foya Kamara, Harbel, Harper, Kakata, Pleebo, Voinjama, and Zwedru. All other settlements are tertiary rural towns, or villages with populations below 15,000. 7 World Bank (2021) Liberia Country Climate Risk Profile 8 World Bank (2018) Country Partnership Framework for The Republic of Liberia 9 United Nations Human Settlements Programme (UN-Habitat), Cities Alliance, Government of Liberia: A National Urban Policy for Liberia: Discussion Paper 10 United States Agency for International Development (USAID), West Africa: Land Use and Land Cover Dynamics https://eros.usgs.gov/westafrica/case-study/urban-growth-liberias-only-metropolis-monrovia; World Bank data portal: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.URB.LCTY?locations=LR 11 Greater Monrovia in the context of this Project is defined as the area encompassing the Monrovia City Corporation’s and the Paynesville City Corporation’s territory as well as surrounding Townships 12 World Bank (2020) Greater Monrovia Urban Review. A Spatial Analysis investigating Constraints and Opportunities 13 UN-Habitat (2020): Diagnosis Note for Liberia; Implementing the New Urban Agenda Through National Urban Policy Page 8 of 73 The World Bank Liberia Urban Resilience Project (P169718) 6. Greater Monrovia could play an important role in supporting the economic transformation necessary for the country to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic and to build back better. It is estimated that Greater Monrovia contributes between 13-19 percent of the country’s GDP.14 Yet, much of the transition to urban jobs in Greater Monrovia went to employment within non-tradeable sectors (85 percent)15, for which growth is conditioned by local demand. About 5 percent of Greater Monrovia’s workforce is still engaged in agriculture, while more than 65 percent have shifted to service sector jobs.16 The majority of Greater Monrovia’s service sector employment is within the informal, low-productive, and non-tradeable segments. The markets in and around Greater Monrovia are a critical part of the agriculture value chain. This suggests that Greater Monrovia could play an important role in engaging local supply chains and incentivizing local value additions within the capital area. Unlocking opportunities for agro processing industries would benefit from improved infrastructure and connectivity offered by urban densities. 7. Greater Monrovia is the largest agglomeration in Liberia, but decades of conflict have stalled investments and development. Land use in Central and Greater Monrovia is highly inefficient and unequal. There are high degrees of informality as it is estimated that 70 percent of the Greater Monrovia population is living in informal settlements.17 These settlements increasingly encroach into wetlands and reclaimed land. The city’s piped water and sewage systems predate the civil wars, built to cater to a much lower population. Only 11 percent of Greater Monrovia’s households have access to electricity and only about 4 percent have access to piped water, with the majority depending on water sources that are contaminated.18 Open defecation is rampant and waste collection rates are low, impacting basic health especially within informal settlements. These trends hinder the potential of Greater Monrovia to provide a livable and productive environment that connects workers to jobs and consumers to markets. 8. Primary and secondary cities in Liberia suffer similar challenges to those in Greater Monrovia, however, at a smaller scale. The civil war damaged much of Liberia’s infrastructure. Facilities still intact have deteriorated due to poor maintenance. Urban growth rates continue to over-burden the capacity of infrastructure and demand for basic services. As a result, primary and secondary cities are facing significant infrastructure related challenges related to transportation, water, sanitation, and hygiene, solid waste management, electricity, and digital infrastructure. Outside of Greater Monrovia there is no government piped water and sewage system, no secondary roads are paved and there are no engineered drainage systems. In terms of connectivity, cities in the North Central region do not have adequate road connectivity between primary and secondary cities. Ninety percent of the total Liberian population live within a two-hour commuting distance from a large city, those who live beyond the range of the Monrovia-Ganta Corridor are faced with challenges regarding market accessibility. In Gbarnga, only 17 to 35 percent of the roads are in adequate condition and further north in Voinjama less than 16 percent of the roads are in good condition.19 There is inadequate infrastructure and limited services to enable access 14 World Bank (2020) Greater Monrovia Urban Review 15 World Bank (2018): Republic of Liberia. From Growth to Development: Priorities for Sustainably Reducing Poverty and Achieving Middle-Income Status by 2030. Systematic Country Diagnostic. Report No. 113720-LR 16 World Bank (2020): Greater Monrovia Urban Review. A Spatial Analysis investigating Constraints and Opportunities 17 Ibid. 18 Ibid. 19 Iimi, Atsushi; Rao, Kulwinder (2018). Firm Location, Transport Connectivity, and Agglomeration Economies: Evidence from Liberia. Policy Research Working Paper; No. 8411. World Bank, Washington, Available at https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/29713. Page 9 of 73 The World Bank Liberia Urban Resilience Project (P169718) to safe drinking water in all communities. It is estimated that 90 percent of the Liberian population does not have access to safe drinking water. Sanitation is inadequate due to insufficient and damaged sanitation infrastructure. About 42 percent of the Liberian population practices open defecation20. Primary and secondary cities have no capacity to manage solid waste. Local government authorities are challenged with gaps in maintaining waste management operations due to financial and human capacity constraints. They estimate that only 15 percent of the population have access to waste collection disposal facilities.21 Many households in secondary cities depend on firewood and charcoal for cooking and heating, while palm oil, kerosene, and candles are used for lighting. In 2016, 68.8 percent of urban homes in Liberia did not have access to electricity.22 Access to broadband is limited as there is no nationwide high-speed transmission network and a lack of conducive regulations. Less than one fifth of the population lives within 50 km of a national transmission link, and virtually no fiber links exist outside of the capital city apart from the link to the airport. 9. Coastal cities like Monrovia, Paynesville and Buchanan are particularly vulnerable to climate change due to low-lying, flat topography and pluvial flooding (from the rain) which creates the highest risk in terms of damage in area covered and frequency. These lowlands are densely settled and growing rapidly. By 2050, precipitation is expected to increase with 9 – 32 percent, sea level rise 0.3 m and peak river flows from St Paul River by 7-8 percent23. Severe fluvial flooding can affect large areas of the Greater Monrovia given the low-lying nature of the land around the Mesurado and Stockton Creek. About 140,000 people in Greater Monrovia are directly affected by predominantly pluvial flooding on average every year24. Critical infrastructure affected by flooding each year includes about 100 schools, five health units, and 150 kilometers of road in Greater Monrovia alone. Average annual direct economic damage due to flooding is about US$20 million (0.6 percent of GDP).25 In 2018, flood events in Greater Monrovia and the surrounding areas resulted in almost 30,000 affected people, including thousands of children.26 In Buchanan, also severely challenged with pluvial flooding and significant coastal erosion, a 2018 assessment of the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) revealed that 2,940 people have been affected by floods in that year.27 A projected climate change induced, one-meter rise in sea level by the end of century, would place almost 230,000 people at risk and would cause the loss of 2,150 square kilometers of coastal land, including much of Greater Monrovia, valued at US$250 million.28 Coastal erosion risks in Greater Monrovia are currently being addressed by the United Nations Development Program through the “Monrovia Metropolitan Climate Resilience Project”.29 The existing built-up area requires a combination of grey – green – blue interventions to mitigate the growing impacts of urban flooding. 20 WHO, UNICEF (2017): Joint Monitoring Program 21 Interview with local government leaders during National Urban Policy development 22 Liberia Institute of Statistics & Geo-Information Services (2017). Household Income and Expenditure Survey 2016. 23 World Bank, Deltares (2021): Flood risk profile for Greater Monrovia 24 Ibid. 25 Ibid 26 https://floodlist.com/africa/liberia-flooding-montserrado-margibi-monrovia-july-2018 27 NDMA (2018): Emergency, Response, Recovery & Logistics Field Assessment Matrix Report Assessment Report 28 World Bank, Deltares (2021): Flood risk profile for Greater Monrovia 29 https://www.adaptation-undp.org/GCF-Monrovia Page 10 of 73 The World Bank Liberia Urban Resilience Project (P169718) 10. Inland cities are also vulnerable to increased flood risk. River flooding is classified as high, with the potential for damaging river floods exacerbated by sea level rise.30 Inland areas will be more susceptible to seasonal storm surges with increased flood impacts on critical infrastructure, including disruptions in access to markets and schools, and significant health risks for the population31. The 2018 assessment by NDMA identifies Ganta and Gbarnga as inland cities that experience flooding in low lying areas during the rainy season. Past events have shown the exposure and impact of existing flood risks. Gbarnga has been exposed to heavy rainfalls in 2021 that led to flooding of the Jor river and subsequent damages to houses, roads and vehicles, leading to displacements.32 Ganta has also experienced flooding of the St. John River in the past, which has affected businesses and cross-border movement of people in and out of Guinea.33 In March 2007, a severe tropical storm in Ganta left scores of people severely injured, and destroyed close to 200 residential homes, offices, schools, and a hospital building34. Climate change projections suggest that the rainfall in these interior cities may show a slight decrease during monsoon season in contrast to the coastal zone. 11. The urban drainage system is outdated, fragmented, under-maintained, and only located in Greater Monrovia. The surface water system in Greater Monrovia was constructed between 1955-1957 with later additions to accommodate urban growth. The system is composed of reinforced concrete pipes, corrugated metal pipes, box culverts, catch basins, manholes, and open concrete and earth stream channels. In Central Monrovia (parts of Sinkor and Bushrod Island) most of the roadside drains consist of closed culverts, taking the storm water through gutters. In lower density areas, the drains are mostly open, following natural creeks. It is estimated that the system consists of in total approximately 27 km underground pipes and box culverts, 22 km major earth channels, 1.7 km large trapezoidal concrete channels, 0.5 km large concrete underground channels, and about 920 manholes. The system is plagued by several challenges, including lack of maintenance and human capacity (only 15 employees of the Ministry of Public Works (MPW) are working on surface water drainage in Greater Monrovia)35, inadequate drainage construction and connection to sewers, illegal connections of sewage pipes to drains, illegal dumping of waste into drains, and lack of funding for maintenance and system expansion.36 Climate change induced intensification of rainfall events and sea-level rise will put the cities already inadequate drainage infrastructure under even more pressure from both pluvial and fluvial flooding risks. Primary and secondary cities have no functional government-managed drainage systems in place. In the second largest city, Gbarnga, the Monrovia – Ganta highway is the only paved highway and drainage facilities are generally poor where present. Severe river flooding along the Ganta – Sanniquellie road regularly disrupts free movement, recently cutting off the highway during reconstruction due to destruction of the bridge by flood events37. Climate-smart drainage solutions are needed. 30 Climate Risk Profile: Liberia (2021): The World Bank Group 31 USAID, Liberia Water Resources Country Profile 32 Front Page Africa (2021): Liberia: Disaster Struck-flooding Leaves Many Homeless in Bong https://frontpageafricaonline.com/front-slider/liberia-disaster-struck-flooding-leaves-many-homeless-in-bong/ 33 Daily Observer (2015): Liberia: St. John River Flooding Stalls Businesses in Ganta; https://allafrica.com/stories/201509110874.html 34 Liberia: The Ganta Tropical Storm - A Challenge To Liberia's Environment, https://allafrica.com/stories/200704240795.html 35 Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) (2017): The Master Plan Study on Urban Facilities Restoration and Improvement in Monrovia in the Republic of Liberia. Follow-Up Survey – Storm Water Drainage 36 Ibid. 37 New Republica (2021) Ganta-Sanniquellie Road Cutoff, https://www.newrepublicliberia.com/ganta-sanniquellie-road-cutoff/ Page 11 of 73 The World Bank Liberia Urban Resilience Project (P169718) 12. Inadequate solid waste management severely exacerbates flooding due to the accumulation of waste in drains, as well as multiple other negative health, environmental, and economic impacts. It is estimated that only 45 percent of waste (800 tons of domestic waste per day) is collected in Liberia, according to most recent tonnage data – the remainder not covered by the formal waste collection system.38 Waste collection rates in Greater Monrovia are among the lowest on the continent despite generation rates that are comparable with countries of its development level.39 Waste is therefore dumped illegally and burned, frequently ending up in the drainage system, blocking the flow of water and intensifying flooding. In Greater Monrovia, the waste management system is decentralized with Monrovia City Corporation (MCC), Paynesville City Corporation (PCC), and Community Based Enterprises (CBEs) providing primary collection and secondary collection is currently provided by MCC, PCC, and private contractors. The World Bank has been supporting the solid waste management sector for more than a decade. The current Whein Town landfill is poorly managed and reaching capacity. The ongoing Cheesemanburg Landfill and Urban Sanitation Project (CLUS, P159961) is investing in the establishment of a new landfill, which is in the design phase and works for the first cell of the landfill will hopefully be operational before the end of 2023. However, continued underinvestment from the government in infrastructure, operations and maintenance is resulting in low collection rates as waste continues to choke the cities with direct impacts on climate change. It is estimated that the Solid Waste Management (SWM) related emission of greenhouse gases (GHG) is 108,566,713kg CO2-Eq for MCC and 66,661,144kg CO2-Eq for PCC.40 Waste management in Buchanan, Ganta, Gbarnga, and other cities is carried out by the citizenry, as local governments are not sufficiently funded to do so. Waste is either buried, burned or used to reclaim land in wetlands to increase land availability. 13. Poor sanitation conditions in Liberia are linked to insufficient sanitation infrastructure, increasing communities’ health risk and contributing to environmental pollution, especially during flood events. The Liberia Water and Sewerage Corporation (LWSC) is empowered by legislation to construct, install, operate and maintain the supply of safe drinking water and perform all sewerage related services. Historically, LWSC has only provided services to the cities of Monrovia and Paynesville and parts of Congo Town Township.41 When the sewer system was fully operational, the network covered 17 percent of Monrovia’s population. In 2009, the sewerage system covered 34 percent of the urbanized area (14.4 km 2 ) connecting two percent of the population (2900 households).42 Most of the sewer network in Greater Monrovia is blocked and often overflowing, leading to the use of alternative means of wastewater disposal. This includes septic tanks, pit latrines, and open defecation.43 For facilities such as septic tanks, the lack of a safe final disposal site leads to uncontrolled environmental pollution and associated health risks,44 especially during regular flooding events. In addition, access to clean water in informal neighborhoods is limited. An estimated 80 percent of the population in Greater Monrovia relies on point sources such as hand-dug wells, which are often contaminated and unsafe to drink from.45 The ongoing Liberia Urban Water Supply Project (LUWS, P155947) is investing in the rehabilitation and expansion of 38 World Bank (2019) Liberia Gov Constraints to Service Delivery Solid Waste Management 39 World Bank (2020) Greater Monrovia Urban Review 40 Cities Alliance (2021): Greater Monrovia Solid Waste Management Baseline. 41 World Bank (2020) Greater Monrovia Urban Review 42 JICA (2009) Masterplan Study on Urban Facilities Restoration and Improvement in Monrovia 43 Liberia Institute of Statistics and Geo-Information Services, Ministry of Health and Social Welfare [Liberia], National AIDS Control Program [Liberia], and ICF International Liberia (2014): Liberia Demographic and Health Survey 44 World Bank (2020): Greater Monrovia Urban Review 45 World Bank (2016): Liberia Urban Water Supply Project. Project Appraisal Document. Page 12 of 73 The World Bank Liberia Urban Resilience Project (P169718) the Greater Monrovia water distribution network lines to reduce water losses, improve water flows, and create backup capacity along key transmission lines. 14. Deteriorating infrastructure, limited services and maintenance and regular flooding negatively affect climate resilience, economic activity, and revenue potential of markets in Liberia. Markets play a key role in informal employment – Duala and Redlight markets are two of the largest markets in Liberia. These markets serve as critical food hubs, bridging agricultural activities to outer counties, such as Bomi and Nimba, with Greater Monrovia’s urban food system.46 Duala Market in New Kru Town is currently being upgraded with integrated facilities to accommodate a little over 5,000 marketers. The market activity long outpaced the capacity of its waste collection, resulting in informal dumping sites located near low lying wetland areas, creating groundwater pollution concerns. The area is extremely flood prone during the rainy season and the drainage exit point near Duala Market poses a major bottleneck in the overall functioning of the wider drainage system due to clogging. The Redlight Market in Paynesville is in the process of being relocated to the new Omega Market, also in Paynesville. Construction of market buildings is ongoing while general infrastructure in the area, including a drainage system, is not yet in place. Market fees are collected by the Liberia Market Association (LMA), a portion of which is to be transferred to the city governments for service delivery, which is often not forthcoming. A lack of clarity of organizational structure and lack of investments contribute to food losses (5.6 percent of daily products) and lack of revenue to invest in the market infrastructure. The lack of sanitation facilities and poor waste management in markets pose epidemiological risks that are compounded by exposure to flood risks.47 Outside of Greater Monrovia, a market day system has been adopted in every city and urban market town. Open market spaces are provided in various locations across primary and secondary cities. 15. Outdated zoning laws, inefficient permitting processes, the absence of a land cadaster, and the lack of urban planning capacity and related enforcement exacerbate climate risk, resulting in a proliferation of informal settlements, often in low-lying flood plains. The land cover of greater Monrovia has almost doubled since 1975. Informal settlements accommodate two thirds of Greater Monrovia's population, an estimated 70 percent of the built-up area in Greater Monrovia is informally developed.48 Within these, there are about 113 demarcated slum communities dispersed across the city.49 Land use patterns indicate that these often occupy low lying land and wetland areas with a high proportion of informality within five km buffer around wetland areas. Population density in these informal settlements is also among the highest. This means that two out of three Monrovians reside in such informal settlements, with limited or no security of tenure, on public or private land that is often illegally encroached on. Responsibilities for urban planning, zoning, management, and permitting in Greater Monrovia are fragmented, and capacity in these areas is weak. JICA financed a Master Plan for Greater Monrovia in 2009, but it was not fully implemented. There is currently no urban planning law and the Liberia Zoning Act stems from 1979. Zoning schemes and their implementation are to be promoted by the Liberia Land Authority (LLA) per the LLA Act (2016) but roles and responsibilities between involved institutions remain unclear. The construction permitting process is manual and requires citizens to comply with several steps and payments at the city corporations, MPW, and LLA, making the process 46 Humanitarian OpenStreetMap Team (HOT), Innovation Lab (iLab) Liberia, World Bank (2020): Open Mapping for Productivity and Pollution Impacts in Duala Market 47 World Bank, HOT, iLab Liberia (2020): Open Mapping for Productivity and Pollution Impacts in Duala Market 48 World Bank (2020): Greater Monrovia Urban Review. 49 Cities Alliance, Sustainable Development Initiative (SDI), (2016) Know your city Initiative slum profile Page 13 of 73 The World Bank Liberia Urban Resilience Project (P169718) cumbersome, contributing to low levels of compliance and enforcement of permits. All processes are negatively affected by a general lack of spatial data and infrastructure asset management systems. Outside of Greater Monrovia, MPW attempts to control construction activities, which is challenging due to the centralized nature of the institution. Capacities of local governments in primary and secondary cities to control urban development is low. 16. The governance of the municipalities is complex due to several different and often overlapping institutions, a lack of enabling legislation, a lack of urban professionals, lack of budgetary support, and a lack of own source revenues. The governance of Greater Monrovia is divided amongst two city corporations - MCC and the PCC and ten local authorities (nine townships and one borough). There is no legal status for the Greater Monrovia area and therefore no administrative structure. Even the term “Greater Monrovia” is often contested, as it does not recognize the other local authorities within. Although PCC is a chartered and incorporated city, in accordance with the Local Government Act of 2018, it, along with non-incorporated local governments are under the authority of the Ministry of Internal Affairs (MIA), while the Mayor of MCC reports to the President directly. PCC is responsible for waste management and police services within the city of Paynesville, while MCC is responsible for providing these services for the remaining jurisdictions. Several functions – including urban planning and developmental control, drainage, sanitation, electricity, and small public works – are joint with National Government entities, most notably the drainage system is managed by MPW. Capacity challenges are linked to the lack of trained and professional urban planners in Liberia. With less than ten in the entire country, Liberia has a deficit of over 800 urban planners.50 A capacity assessment of the Gbarnga City Corporation revealed the perception that the institution does not hold meeting at any levels; that the corporation does not have a strategic plan and no human resources policy; had a manual financial management (FM) system; and that decision making is not collective since staff and citizens are reluctant to share their views. The Gbarnga city corporation has only 18 employees and 38 volunteers, whose role and status are unclear.51 There is currently no similar information available for the Ganta City Corporation or the Buchanan City Corporation, but newspaper articles indicate weaknesses with FM procedures in Buchanan.52 A lack of financial resources affects the efficient delivery of local government core services, including solid waste management. This underfunding also leads to a lack of operation and maintenance of core infrastructure, including the drainage system, which creates a significant risk to ensure resilient infrastructure investments stay sustainable in the future. Own source revenue generation levels are low due to the centralization of property tax collection (collected centrally by the Liberia Revenue Authority, however, tax roll coverage is low), inefficient market fee arrangements, as well as lack of geospatial data and adequate systems to increase business registration revenues or waste management fees. 50 A National Urban Policy for Liberia: Discussion Paper (2017) UN Habitat 51 USAID (2018): Capacity Needs Assessment. County Authorities in Bong, Nimba, and Grand Gedeh and City Corporations in Gbarnga, Gompa, and Zwedru. 52 Front Page Africa (2021) Liberia: Accountability Problem Hits Buchanan City Corporation, Over US$100k Yet to Be Accounted For; https://frontpageafricaonline.com/county-news/liberia-accountability-problem-hits-buchanan-city-corporation-over- us100k-yet-to-be-accounted-for/ Page 14 of 73 The World Bank Liberia Urban Resilience Project (P169718) C. Relevance to Higher Level Objectives 17. Urban development and climate and disaster resilience are key elements of Liberia’s medium- term national development strategy, the Pro-poor Agenda for Prosperity and Development (PAPD).53 The PAPD (2018-2023) emphasizes the role of urban areas and especially of Greater Monrovia in supporting the economic transformation necessary for the country to generate shared prosperity. The PAPD highlights flooding as the main challenge caused by climate induced disasters. The National Policy and Response Strategy on Climate Change pragmatically identifies adaptation to short-term climate variability and extreme events as a starting point for reducing vulnerability to longer-term climate change. The Strategy highlights the importance of ensuring that infrastructure is ‘climate-proof’ and to develop a comprehensive land-use plan to achieve sustainability in urbanization and settlement developments in order to adapt to climate change.54 The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Resilience Strategy of Liberia (2020) aims to reduce and control the risks associated with flood, coastal erosion and windstorms in the Monrovia area (Action 3.1.). The PAPD is also cognizant of the extent of informality and lack of service access that has paralyzed the economy of Greater Monrovia. Finally, the PAPD includes a high-level national target on strengthened financial and administrative autonomy of five pilot cities (Buchanan, Ganta, Gbarnga, Monrovia, and Paynesville). In particular, the government has committed itself via the PAPD to piloting the concept of sustainable cities in these five cities with specific emphasis placed on urban renewal around informal settlements and city planning and zoning; waste reduction, reuse, and recycling; and expansion in public water, sanitation, and hygiene resources. The Project also responds to President Weah’s Accelerated Community Development Programme, which has a focus on participative community infrastructure and access to basic services in poor and vulnerable communities and market areas. 18. The World Bank Group’s Country Partnership Framework (CPF) 55 is supporting Liberia’s pro- poor growth agenda through three pillars and the Project will specifically contribute to Pillar 3 (narrowing the infrastructure gap to foster equitable development) and its objective III.8 (more resilient urban environments and rural communities). The interventions under the Project will support closing the infrastructure gap in underserved areas and improving socio-economic resilience of Liberian cities. In addition, the Project will also contribute to CPF pillar 1 (strengthening institutions and creating an enabling environment for inclusive and sustainable growth), particularly objective I.1. (Greater transparency, accountability, and efficiency in the public institutions). The Project also contributes to Pillar 2 (Protecting Poor and Vulnerable People) and Pillar 4 (Strengthening Policies, Institutions, and Investments for Rebuilding Better) of the World Bank Group’s COVID-19 Crisis Response Approach Paper. 19. The Project is aligned with the World Bank’s Western & Central Africa Region Priorities 2021 – 2025.56 The Project will contribute towards the “4 Big Goals” to transform the economy and inclusive growth. This includes renewing the social contract through strengthening inclusive service delivery, 53 Republic of Liberia (2018): Pro-Poor Agenda for Prosperity and Development (PAPD) 2018-2023 54 Environmental Protection Agency (EAP) of Liberia, 2018; https://www.epa.gov.lr/sites/default/files/National%20Policy%20and%20Response%20Strategy%20on%20Climate%20Change %20Final%20Document-min_0.pdf 55 World Bank Group (2018): Country Partnership for the Republic of Liberia for the Period FY19-24. Report No. 130753-LR. 56 World Bank (2021): The World Bank’s Western and Central Africa Region Priorities 2021-2025. Supporting a Resilient Recovery. Page 15 of 73 The World Bank Liberia Urban Resilience Project (P169718) institutional and local government capacity, and citizen engagement. The investments in climate resilient infrastructure and strengthening integrated resilient urban development capacity will strengthen the ability to absorb, adapt to and transform systems in response to climate vulnerabilities. This will support spatial transformation that accelerates productivity growth including TA and capacity building to support revenue generation and financial sustainability. The design of interventions will account for specific needs of women and improve women’s representation in community led decision making through the envisaged participatory processes under climate resilient community and market upgrading. 20. The Project is aligned with the World Bank Group Climate Change Action Plan 2021–202557 and will focus on climate change adaptation activities. The Project will directly contribute to the World Bank’s commitment on climate financing and strengthening climate resilience. It will be specifically aligned to the World Bank’s climate targets for 2021-202558 and the World Bank’s climate change action plan by supporting climate change adaptation throughout the Project. The Project is also aligned with the World Bank Africa Climate Business Plan (2020)59, specifically its Strategic Direction IV (Resilient Cities and Green Mobility), which recognizes that ensuring the resilience of infrastructure and services is critical for cities, cost-effective, and leads to higher returns. This is also in line with the World Bank’s Western & Central Africa Region Priorities 2021-202560 regarding increasing climate co-benefits by helping Liberia to strengthen its ability to absorb, adapt to, and transform systems in response to climate change vulnerabilities. Given the identified exposure to natural hazards, the Project entails investments and activities that will directly support climate resilience, including but not limited to (a) improving urban drainage services and green and grey flood risk measures to mitigate probability and severity of floods in 2050; (b) supporting the government in promoting climate-resilient urban upgrading; and (c) strengthening urban planning and management to ensure that climate resilience principles are embedded in spatial plans and regulations and processes for the built environment to protect Greater Monrovia’s as well as other primary cities’ exposure to climate risks. 21. The Project design is aligned with the World Bank Group Gender Strategy (FY16-23).61 The PAPD and Liberia’s Gender Policy (2009) envisage gender equality to be entrenched as a cross-cutting issue leading to more empowered women and girls. The Project will follow this principle and has included concrete activities to close key gender gaps, namely lack of decision-making of women with regard to the entire life cycle of urban development and investments and a lack of infrastructure and basic service facilities that address women’s and men’s diverse needs alike and focus to promote women’s safety and well-being. Citizen engagement mechanisms, for the identification of neighborhood upgrading activities and higher-level urban development forums, will ensure that women, youth, and vulnerable groups will be part of the decision-making process, considering existing patriarchal structures and the higher share of men co-opting leadership positions in the government. It is anticipated that these mechanisms will contribute to urban designs and provision of basic service facilities in a manner that takes women’s daily patterns and needs into account Progress in investments and activities for improved living conditions will be measured using disaggregated data on female beneficiaries. 57 World Bank Group (2021): World Bank Group Climate Change Action Plan 2021–2025: Supporting Green, Resilient, and Inclusive Development. 58 World Bank (2016): 2025 Targets to Step up Climate Action 59 World Bank (2020): The Next Generation Africa Climate Business Plan - Ramping Up Development-Centered Climate Action. 60 World Bank (2021): Supporting A Resilient Recovery: The World Bank’s Western and Central Africa Region Priorities 2021 - 2025. 61 World Bank (2015): World Bank Group Gender Strategy (FY16-23): Gender Equality, Poverty Reduction and Inclusive Growth. Page 16 of 73 The World Bank Liberia Urban Resilience Project (P169718) II. PROJECT DESCRIPTION A. Project Development Objective (PDO) 22. The PDO is to increase flood resilience and access to urban infrastructure in selected neighborhoods and to improve urban management in Liberia. Outcome Indicator 1. Increase flood resilience Area protected from flooding (hectare) 2. Increase access to urban infrastructure People benefitting from improved urban infrastructure (number) - Women provided with improved urban infrastructure (number) 3. Improve urban management Urban Management Capacity Enhanced (yes/no) B. Project Components 23. Urban development challenges and climate risks in Greater Monrovia, and primary cities require an integrated approach that concurrently enable the delivery of basic services, reduce climate risks, and increases capacities for the sustainable management of urban areas. In response, this Project is designed to (a) mitigate climate and flood risks through structural and non-structural measures; (b) provide basic services/infrastructure investments in underserved neighborhoods; and (c) improve institutional capacity for urban planning and management. A climate and flood risk assessment for Greater Monrovia has been completed62 that informs the resilience objectives, which will be integrated into infrastructure design, urban planning, data development, capacity building for policy and decision- making, and investment planning. To meet its development objectives, the proposed Project will have four components, which are presented in Table 1 below. Table 1: Proposed Project Components International Development Association (IDA) Financing Component 1 Climate Resilient Infrastructure and Urban Upgrading US$30.0 million 1.1. Climate Risk Management Infrastructure US$25.0 million 1.2. Climate Resilient Community and Market Upgrading US$5.0 million Component 2 Strengthening Integrated Resilient Urban Development Capacity US$6.0 million 2.1. Resilient Urban Planning and Development Control US$3.0 million 2.2. Solid Waste Management Operations and Financing US$3.0 million Component 3 Project Management US$4.0 million Component 4 Contingent Emergency Response Component US$0.0 million Total US$40.0 million 62 World Bank, Deltares (2021): Flood risk profile for Greater Monrovia Page 17 of 73 The World Bank Liberia Urban Resilience Project (P169718) 24. Component 1: Climate Resilience Infrastructure and Urban Upgrading (US$30.0 million equivalent). This component will support flood risk management and community upgrading infrastructure in prioritized areas of Greater Monrovia. Investments in drainage infrastructure will improve connectivity of drainage networks and are prioritized to reduce climate and flood risk. Associated neighborhood and market upgrading interventions will improve living and working conditions and access to public services. Four geographical key intervention areas are being considered, a short list of flood and climate risk hotspots was identified, which was then narrowed down to four, based on their socio- economic significance, government priorities, and consideration of other ongoing donor investments. The prioritization of these areas and associated investments in these areas will be confirmed through a feasibility study. The selected areas of intervention include (a) Northern Bushrod Island, including Duala market (MCC); (b) Central Monrovia – Soniwein drainage system (MCC); (c) Omega Market Area (PCC); and (d) South Eastern Paynesville, Duport Road area (PCC). Climate vulnerability has been accounted for through assessment of pluvial, fluvial, and coastal flood risk in the entire Greater Monrovia area.63 Three out of four areas have a relatively high risk per unit area, whereas the fourth area has the potential to become a high risk area due to the ongoing rapid developments. Annex 2 provides a detailed description of the proposed areas and possible interventions to be financed under Component 1. 25. Subcomponent 1.1: Climate and Flood Risk Management Infrastructure (US$25.0 million equivalent). This subcomponent will support climate and flood risk management in prioritized areas of Greater Monrovia. The sub-component will carry out construction of new drainage infrastructure and upgrading existing channels in selected areas of Greater Monrovia, including: (a) feasibility and design studies; (b) consultations on the design; (c) required environmental and social framework (ESF) studies and instruments, and associated implementation; (d) services of works supervision engineer; and (e) related servicing and maintenance contracts. New and upgraded drainage infrastructure will be designed with climate resilience in mind, so that 10-year floods under the most likely 2050 climate scenario will be anticipated and designed for.64 Designs will also consider opportunities to minimize operations and maintenance needs and costs, due to limited government capacity. In particular nature-based solutions will be used wherever possible, including blue solutions (open water areas for temporary stormwater storage), and green solutions (wetland or green vegetated areas to maintain soil infiltration and temporarily store surface stormwater). Civil works under this subcomponent will make use of the affected community’s work force, especially women. The final site selections will be made based on the climate screening to be included in the feasibility study. 26. Subcomponent 1.2: Climate Resilient Community and Market Upgrading (US$5.0 million equivalent). This subcomponent will upgrade community infrastructure investments in neighborhoods and market areas in the same locations as the drainage and water retention infrastructure. The sub- component will finance (a) feasibility and design studies; (b) consultations on the design; (c) required ESF studies and instruments, and associated implementation; (d) services of works supervision engineer; and (e) related servicing and maintenance contracts. Infrastructure will be prioritized based on climate change local area plans that are developed with community and market representatives to prioritize investments. Infrastructure that has a climate change mitigation and adaptation benefit and that complement flood risk management infrastructure supported under subcomponent 1.2. will be prioritized. Investments 63World Bank, Deltares (2021): Flood risk profile for Greater Monrovia 64This objective will be validated in the feasibility and design study to ensure that this is economically viable and cost effective. It may be that a 1-in-5 return period in 2050 is more cost effective. Page 18 of 73 The World Bank Liberia Urban Resilience Project (P169718) could include improved water supply, sanitation and waste management/transfer/sorting facilities, community halls, childcare and health facilities, cold storage facilities, and green parks and recreational centers. To ensure future sustainability of investments in light of climate change vulnerability and impacts, all infrastructure activities will be based on resilient design principles and prioritize investments based on climate change mitigation and adaptation considerations by using e.g., energy efficient lighting and equipment, solar panels, roof top greenery, measures/design principles that reduce the need for air- conditioning, elevated construction to protect against flood risk, more resilient building materials, etc. The Project will ensure that women are engaged in the envisaged participatory, community-led decision- making processes such that their needs and safety concerns will inform the proposed urban design and infrastructure interventions. The Project will also ensure that women are well represented within the community work force that will help with works as well as the operation and maintenance envisaged required for this subcomponent’s interventions. 27. Component 2: Strengthening Integrated Resilient Urban Development Capacity (US$6 million equivalent). Beyond Greater Monrovia, primary cities across the country are growing rapidly, and while they do not face the same intensity of urban challenges due to their much smaller populations, support to effectively plan urban growth and associated infrastructure and service delivery needs, can help these cities avoid some of the challenges that Greater Monrovia now faces. This Component will therefore support resilient integrated spatial planning, capacity needs assessment and investment plans in Greater Monrovia, including Paynesville, as well as the next three largest cities in Liberia, Buchanan, Ganta, and Gbarnga. Activities will use climate risk maps to orient and inform resilient urban growth and development. It will also provide dedicated capacity building of municipalities and other institutions associated with resilient urban development planning and control, and solid waste management service delivery. Capacity building activities are intended to contribute to better resilient planning and development control, integrating gender-informed urban design, increasing fiscal space, and improved coordination. 28. Subcomponent 2.1: Resilient Urban Planning and Development Control (US$3.0 million equivalent). This subcomponent will finance activities to increase the capacities of relevant stakeholders to collect spatial data and develop, maintain, and update a climate resilient spatial development plan. The plan would be based on any existing sector plans (energy, water, transport, etc.) and be developed through a participatory process involving intensive stakeholder engagement, especially with women through targeted focus group discussions, and the output would emphasize the spatial elements needed to guide climate resilient infrastructure investments and land use in Greater Monrovia as well as primary cities and safeguarding against development on land most vulnerable to climate and flood risk. To promote this a focus will be set on integrating climate vulnerability aspects into the spatial development diagnostics and subsequent plans, e.g., outlining no build zones in existing or future flood prone areas, identifying key infrastructure at risk etc. The plan will also include a climate resilient infrastructure diagnostic and investment plan, including transport, drainage, Information and Communications Technology, water and sanitation, and market infrastructure identifying priority investment needs with a view towards low carbon and resilient urban development and economic growth trajectory. To oversee the development of the proposed plan, a Greater Monrovia Task Force will be established. Similar plans and task forces will be developed for Buchanan, Ganta, and Gbarnga. These task forces will ensure women’s participation at the municipal decision-making level and the task forces will develop processes Page 19 of 73 The World Bank Liberia Urban Resilience Project (P169718) for consulting with the female urban population to support increased participation of women in planning and decision-making within urban spaces. 29. In order to support the effective implementation of such planning instruments, this subcomponent will also support an urban development control strengthening program which will (a) assess opportunities for strengthening the existing legal framework, institutional arrangements, and current practices; (b) develop a comprehensive national training and skills development needs assessment for urban planning, management and land administration and implementation of relevant trainings, including with a focus on climate change to increase awareness of urban resilience; (c) prepare development control tools, including digitization of permitting systems; and (d) deliver targeted training to civil servants and appointed officials at the central and local government level with the possible inclusion of community-level organizations, which will ensure that female staff of the municipalities will benefit. This sub-component is being supported by a World Bank-executed technical assistance conducting a Climate and Disaster Resilient Building Regulatory Capacity Assessment, whose results will help to inform the design and activities under this sub-component in more detail. Ultimately, the strengthening of urban development control systems and practices, using climate risk maps to inform no- build zones, paired with a public awareness campaign on climate risks also to be supported under the program, is anticipated to contribute to a reduction of citizens settling in high climate and flood-risk zones or ecologically sensitive areas, thereby reducing climate risk in the medium to long term. 30. Subcomponent 2.2: Solid Waste Management Operations and Financing (US$3.0 million equivalent). The top priority to improve Operations and Maintenance (O&M) of drainage and other hydraulic infrastructure is to improve Solid Waste Management System. Keeping waste out of the drains allows the drainage system to effectively protect against climate and flood risks. This subcomponent will finance the development of a Solid Waste Management Operational Plan for the Greater Monrovia Area that will include a detailed financial model and a private sector engagement plan and inform the operational needs of the system. The plan will also lay out contractual options to combine SWM collection with regular drainage clean-up operations, since drains are acting as waste receptacles in Greater Monrovia. The work will build on recent sectoral diagnostic work of Cities Alliance. 31. This subcomponent will also finance capacity building for the cities of Greater Monrovia (including Paynesville), Buchanan, Gbarnga, and Ganta. It will draw on the revenue-oriented elements of the Local Government Act and include a diagnostic and needs assessment of current local government revenue mobilization and identify an action plan to enhance revenue streams. This could include, inter alia, further technical assistance to strengthen the policy dialogue and systems related to property tax, business taxes, market taxes, etc. Equipment and capacity development needs to enhance revenue mobilization and collection will also be supported. Similar, smaller scale SWM planning, and capacity support will be offered to Buchanan, Gbarnga, and Ganta. The sub-component will build on the technical assistance provided under the World Bank Executed Pro Blue Trust Fund (Improving fisheries sector and coastal plastic litter abatement in Liberia, linked to the Improving fisheries sector and coastal plastic litter abatement in Liberia Project, P172012), and opportunities to reduce, re-use and recycle especially plastics will be integrated throughout this component. It is anticipated that activities will in the medium- to long-term contribute to a reducing of the estimated SWM related GHG emissions (see sector context). Page 20 of 73 The World Bank Liberia Urban Resilience Project (P169718) 32. This component will build on the achievements of the CLUS project (P159961) in close coordination with MCC and PCC. With CLUS reaching the end of its project lifespan and resources, some activities that may not be completed under that project could be taken up, such as the feasibility, design and ESF studies for SWM facilities. 33. Component 3: Project Management (US$4.0 million equivalent). This component will finance all expenses required for Project management and coordination, compliance monitoring of social, environmental and safety standards, fiduciary management, and monitoring and evaluation (M&E). All operational expenses of the PMU will be financed from this component, including external consultants to be hired as PMU staff, Project vehicles, equipment, and furniture. The component will also finance the services of a project management consultancy firm to swiftly fill specific technical and project management needs for specific assignments. Any project management, safeguards, fiduciary or other required meetings, consultations and workshops will be financed under this component as well. Expenses required to establish, implement, and monitor the Grievance Mechanism (GM) and handling of complaints and all safeguards related concerns will be covered by this component. Finally, required studies, surveys, related research, and reviews including a mid-term review (MTR) and an implementation and completion report will be financed to inform the M&E system of the Project. All other M&E related studies, surveys, and other expenses will be financed from this component as well. 34. Component 4: Contingent Emergency Response Component (CERC, US$0.0). Following an eligible crisis or emergency, the Borrower may request the World Bank to re-allocate Project funds to support emergency response and reconstruction. This component would draw from the uncommitted resources under the Project from other Project components to cover emergency response. A CERC annex to the Project Implementation Manual (PIM) for this Component will be prepared by the Borrower and will provide detailed guidelines and instructions on how to trigger the CERC and use funds (including activation criteria, eligible expenditures, and specific implementation arrangements as well as required staffing for the Coordinating Authority). C. Project Beneficiaries 35. The urban population in Greater Monrovia (estimated as 1.5 million)65 will have access to improved urban living conditions and service delivery through the interventions to improve drainage infrastructure, neighborhood upgrading, and local institutional capacity. They will not only benefit from improved flood resilience, reducing the risks of contamination and deterioration of quality of life but also improved productivity and access to services. Through the Project works and maintenance activities the Project intends to use labor intensive approaches that will maximize the number of temporary jobs created for many Liberians, providing needed livelihood support. The government at local and central level will directly benefit from the Project’s capacity building and technical assistance investments, for improved climate resilient spatial planning, permitting, revenue generation, and O&M. This will include beneficiaries from LLA, LMA, MCC, MPW, NDMA, and PCC. The estimated number of government beneficiaries is 300 who will benefit directly from trainings and improved administrative processes, additional data availability, and from being directly involved with implementation of Project activities and related on-the-job learning. 65 World Bank Data Portal: https://data.worldbank.org/ Page 21 of 73 The World Bank Liberia Urban Resilience Project (P169718) 36. In terms of beneficiaries, it is estimated that at least 200,000 will benefit from avoided flooding and the neighborhood upgrading activities. This was calculated based on the current population numbers for the targeted areas and estimated as follows. The total population in the current targeted neighborhoods is around 280,00066. This population is expected to either directly or indirectly benefit from the flood interventions and the neighborhood upgrading interventions in their communities either through reduced flooding of their own assets, better accessibility of roads and other services and also the community upgrading infrastructure. The proposed interventions, however, will cover primary drainage only and the interventions will be designed up to certain return period. Thus, flooding will not be completely eliminated for all beneficiaries. Also, the budget for neighborhood upgrading is limited so all four neighborhoods may not be fully supported. Based on these assumptions, the number of beneficiaries has been estimated to be 70 percent of the total population in the target neighborhoods, around 200,000 people. It is noted that this number does not account for other beneficiaries. For instance, the frequent and widespread flooding in these areas with inaccessible roads may cause causing disruption of markets and other activities affecting visitors from outside these communities. This will affect a much larger number of people than the 200,000 beneficiaries. D. Results Chain 37. The overall results chain and theory of change is detailed in Figure 1. Figure1: Theory of change 66Based on census data from Liberia Statistics and Geospatial Information Services (LISGIS) dated 2008 and extrapolated to 2018 using population growth numbers. Page 22 of 73 The World Bank Liberia Urban Resilience Project (P169718) E. Rationale for World Bank Involvement and Role of Partners Rationale for World Bank Involvement 38. The World Bank has a long-standing track record in preparing and implementing urban resilience projects in Liberia. The World Bank has been engaged in Liberia’s urban development sector since the 1980s with the financing of the Monrovia Urban Development Project (P001439) in 1982 and subsequent engagements after the civil war, including the Urban and Rural Infrastructure Rehabilitation Project (P113099) and the Emergency Monrovia Urban Sanitation Project (P115664) in 2009. The Project builds on the achievements of the CLUS project (P173261) in terms of supporting solid waste management operations and capacity building and will attempt to take on some aspects that could not be completed. The Project is designed as a platform project that takes a spatial approach to resilient and integrated urban planning and management, and while a key geographic focus of the infrastructure investments is Greater Monrovia, the Project will build capacity and develop integrated spatial development plans and assess infrastructure investment needs in primary cities across the country. In that sense this Project complements the Rural Economic Transformation Project (P175263), but also LUWS (P155947) and the Road Asset Management Project (P125574. 39. While the CLUS project and LUWS project are also focusing on the urban space, LURP adds value in a number of ways. Thematic focus and respective PDOs (CLUS seeks to support increased access to solid waste management services in Monrovia; LUWS seeks to increase access to piped water supply services in the project area in Monrovia and improve the operational efficiency of LWSC); duration (CLUS and LUWS will close in 2023); implementing agencies (CLUS: MCC; LUWS: LWSC), and geographical focus (CLUS and LUWS focus on Greater Monrovia only). In comparison LURP has a broader thematic focus and PDO, an implementing agency with a broad national mandate (MPW), and a broader geographical focus (Greater Monrovia and Buchanan, Ganta and Gbarnga). LURP will build on existing experiences and complement from CLUS and LUWS and could take over incomplete activities/reforms if needed at the time of CLUS and LUWS closure in 2023, serving as the World Bank’s urban platform Project for Liberia, consolidating the World Bank’s urban investment portfolio. Lessons learned from CLUS and LUWS have led to the proposed PMU staffing structure (including several technical specialists and two procurement specialist) and the choice of MPW as the implementing agency, due to its broad geographical and technical mandate, and track record in implementing other World Bank financed projects. In addition, the project management and technical assistance firm will be used to reinforce implementation capacities. 40. Regionally, the World Bank supports projects of a similar nature, including in Freetown, Sierra 67 Leone ; Accra, Ghana68; and Antananarivo, Madagascar69, and in low capacity/fragile environment providing a broad set of lessons learned. The scale of financing required for the infrastructure investments needed in climate and flood risk management are in line with the financing that the World Bank can provide. Further, the World Bank has contributed significantly to the knowledge base of Greater Monrovia’s urban development challenges due to carrying out a Greater Monrovia Urban review70, which 67 Resilient Urban Sierra Leone Project (P173676) 68 Greater Accra Resilient and Integrated Development Project (P164330) 69 Integrated Urban Development and Resilience Project for Greater Antananarivo (P159756) 70 World Bank (2020): Greater Monrovia Urban Review. A Spatial Analysis Investigating Constraints and Opportunities Page 23 of 73 The World Bank Liberia Urban Resilience Project (P169718) included several core analytics. The World Bank adds further value by: (a) using its convening power to bring together a multi-sector approach to a significant development challenge of urban areas in Liberia; (b) leveraging its long-term engagement in the urban sector; and (c) in providing technical support in the implementation of much needed infrastructure and capacity building. Role of Partners 41. The French Development Agency (AFD) is supporting a parallel project in the amount of EUR10.0 million (US$11.3 million equivalent) for neighborhood upgrading activities in Greater Monrovia. The project was approved by the AFD Board in November 2021. AFD will focus on three neighborhoods, namely Shoe Factory, Wood Camp, and Lakpazee.71 These neighborhoods are outside the World Bank financed interventions in Greater Monrovia, but activities will be implemented by the same implementing agency (MPW) and Project stakeholders (MCC, PCC, etc.). AFD financed activities will, inter alia, include establishment of toilets, water kiosks, playgrounds, libraries/community halls, football pitches, etc. It is anticipated that lessons learned from these activities will inform Project activities under subcomponent 1.2. The AFD financing will be implemented in coordination with the proposed Project, using the same institutional arrangements. AFD has not delegated any services to the World Bank and the World Bank will not act on behalf of AFD and vice versa. Further details are provided in the institutional arrangements section below. 42. The Government of Japan has provided funding to inform Project preparation and related analytics. A detailed flood risk assessment for Monrovia has been carried out with support from the Japan–World Bank Program for Mainstreaming Disaster Risk Management in Developing Countries under the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR). A key input for this risk assessment was the AW3D high resolution topography data from the Remote Sensing Technology Center of Japan /NTT Data Corporation. The World Bank will continue to collaborate with the Government of Japan/JICA during Project implementation. The Project is also building on the work of JICA, that financed the 2009 drainage infrastructure master plan for Monrovia. In addition, the Project is taking into account JICA projects that previously has constructed a market building at Omega circle, is currently upgrading the Duala Market and plans to finance a road upgrading project in the Southern part of Bushrod Island. 43. Other development partners such as the European Union, Cities Alliance, UN-Habitat, and USAID are also investing in urban development and solid waste management capacity building programs. Cities Alliance recently completed the Greater Monrovia Urban Development Strategy. UN- Habitat in the meantime is supporting the development of a national urban development policy. The Project will dovetail with both the Strategy and the Policy through the planning and capacity building program under Component 2. USAID is implementing the Local Empowerment for Government Inclusion and Transparency Activity (2016-2023), which seeks to increase the accountability, transparency, and effectiveness of subnational government resources in Liberia, including the Gbarnga City Corporation. The Project will seek to establish an urban development sector coordination group with all relevant development partners. 71 The AFD financing was approved in December 2021 Page 24 of 73 The World Bank Liberia Urban Resilience Project (P169718) F. Lessons Learned and Reflected in the Project Design 44. The operational design integrates lessons from related operations in Liberia, including CLUS (P159961), LUWS (P155947), and the Liberia Land Administration Project (P162893). Global lessons from similar operations have been included, namely from Georgetown (Guyana)72 and Paramaribo (Suriname),73 Metro Colombo (Sri Lanka),74 Dar es Salaam (Tanzania)75 and others. The following lessons learned were extracted from these experiences. 45. Urban infrastructure projects are complex and require strong project management and technical teams with specialized expertise. Urban projects, particularly upgrading/urban redevelopment, require good coordination among government departments, effective communication strategies, tailored solutions for each investment, and continuous consultations with communities. A robust staffing structure will be required at the PMU. Sufficient resources should be included to support technical urban infrastructure functions (including drainage engineers with extensive experience in similar major drainage works), urban planning, and project management functions (fiduciary, safeguards that include community relations and grievance management, technical supervision, communications, and monitoring and evaluation). 46. Sound urban drainage management data and information are essential to ensure the quality of flood management infrastructure, as well as overall monitoring, planning, and sustainability of the drainage system. Detailed aerial surveys of the Project area have already been conducted using drone survey techniques and resulted in high-resolution terrain models and orthophotos of the Greater Monrovia area. In Component 1, this information will enable the creation of detailed topographic maps and will feed into detailed models to be developed during the feasibility study phase to understand drainage systems. The Project will also make use of hydrological monitoring instruments in the areas of interest to conduct ground-based surveys necessary for the design of flood management infrastructure works, as well as the development of the O&M system. 47. Integrated urban planning and sustainable development models will be adopted. The Project will address uncontrolled urban development through both curative and preventative approaches. Component 2 will support sustainable planning, development control and operational frameworks which will address the increasingly fragmented expansion of Greater Monrovia. Given the flood-prone location and climate characteristics of Greater Monrovia, it is imperative that drainage and flood management will get top priority in future urban development and land use. Plans to be developed by the Project will embed flood management measures, including nature-based and green drainage solutions and zoning, which have proven to be international best practice to provide multiple co-benefits such as conservation of biodiversity, climate change mitigation, and livelihood support. 48. Community participation and consultation throughout the planning, design, and implementation process will be adopted. Involving the community in consultation processes can help improve the sustainability of infrastructure and upgrading components. The World Bank’s global 72 Guyana Flood Risk Management Project (P147250) 73 Greater Paramaribo Flood Risk Management Program (P159234) 74 Metro Colombo Urban Development Project (P122735) 75 Dar Es Salaam Metropolitan Development Project (P123134) Page 25 of 73 The World Bank Liberia Urban Resilience Project (P169718) experience with similar projects shows that citizen engagement helps to instill a sense of ownership, which is expected to contribute to better long-term maintenance and management. Capacity building for local government staff will also include communication strategy training to improve inclusive capacity for citizen engagement. Achieving infrastructure and urban designs that are responsive to stakeholder needs and that are universal, and gender inclusive requires a concerted effort and attentive follow up by the World Bank. Conventional infrastructure design often limits accessibility of people with disabilities and is not equally safe and accessible for all genders. Standard bidding documents often overlook these critical issues, and stakeholder engagement ends up being weak unless there are concerted efforts and early intervention by the World Bank that is sustained throughout design review and implementation. Community labor will be used where possible to ensure that the improvement in physical infrastructure contributes to local job creation and community ownership. Employment is an important Project impact, particularly given the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, and it will be measured more systematically as part of M&E frameworks. Anecdotal evidence from current and past urban projects suggests that their infrastructure sub-projects were associated with a substantial boost to local employment and skill building. III. IMPLEMENTATION ARRANGEMENTS A. Institutional and Implementation Arrangements 49. Project Steering Committee (PSC). A PSC will be established to provide strategic oversight, review 18-month work plans and budgets, regularly review implementation status, support in resolving policy coordination challenges throughout Project implementation and ensure ownership and institutional sustainability beyond the Project term. The PSC will be chaired by the Ministry of Finance and Development Planning (MFDP) and MCC, MIA, and PCC will be co-chairs. Members will be EPA, LLA, MPW, and NDMA. Details of the PSC’s roles and responsibilities are outlined in Terms of Reference (TOR), which will be reflected in the PIM. 50. Project Technical Committee (PTC). A PTC will be established to guide technical discussions and coordinate technical input to TORs, specifications, evaluation committees, and technical reviews of consultancy outputs. The PTC would ensure that technical inputs are provided in time and would regularly monitor implementation progress at the technical level. The PTC will be chaired by MPW, and members will include EPA, MCC, MFDP, MIA, and PCC. The PMU will serve as the secretariat for the PTC. AFD and the World Bank are observers to this group. Details of the PTC’s roles and responsibilities are outlined in TORs, which will be reflected in the PIM. Both the PTC and the PSC will promote cross-learning between municipalities across the country. 51. PMU. The Project will establish a PMU at MPW, which has the national mandate for major construction works and the maintenance of public infrastructure. The PMU will be responsible for day-to- day project implementation, coordination between all involved administrative and technical agencies, preparing 18-month work plans and budgets, preparing procurement plans and managing procurement processes, contract management, monitoring compliance with environmental and social standards (ESSs), and M&E. FM functions will be implemented by the Project Financial Management Unit (PFMU) hosted at the MFDP. The PMU will at a minimum be staffed with a Project Coordinator, two Procurement Specialists, Finance Officer, Environmental Specialist, Social Development and Gender Specialist, Communication and Page 26 of 73 The World Bank Liberia Urban Resilience Project (P169718) Community Engagement Specialist, Lead Project Engineer, Civil Engineer, Urban Planner76, Junior Information and Digital Communications Specialist, and an Administrative Assistant as well as Drivers. 52. Technical Assistance and Project Management Consultancy. Due to the limited capacities within Liberia, a project management consultancy firm would be recruited using a time-based contract for the duration of the Project, which would be flexible and scalable, which would be drawn upon as needed. The consultancy will be used to swiftly fill specific technical and project management needs for specific assignments, ranging from specific engineering or environmental expertise, to procurement, legal and contract management needs. Deliverables will include drafting TORs, taking part in project evaluation committees, quality control of studies and designs delivered by other consultancies, supporting supervision and contract management, providing targeted technical advice in response to a specific request, etc. 53. Parallel World Bank and AFD projects will work together using the same institutional arrangements, including a joint PMU and the same PTC and PSC. Fiduciary and Environmental and Social Framework processes, policies and regulations will remain in line with the respective financier. No services are delegated. The World Bank and AFD will conduct joint implementation support missions wherever feasible and project management costs will be shared. A common PIM is being developed that articulates the common procedures to undertake and any specific differences in light of different policies and regulations. The PIM will clarify how the cost of items that are not procurable will be shared (e.g., fuel, electricity, vehicle operation and maintenance, travel, per diem, usually items included under Operating Costs, etc.). The two financiers have committed to help the client implement the two parallel projects in a streamlined way that minimizes the burden on the government. Two designated accounts and two sets of financial reports will be prepared for the respective financiers. Since the Project Preparation Advance from the World Bank is effective, PMU will be hired using World Bank project funds, for which TORs are approved and being advertised. Project management cost sharing arrangements will be determined with AFD, with the general understanding that 10 percent of each respective project will be used to support project management costs. Adequate measures will be put in place to coordinate work planning and budgeting for project management for clear and transparent budgeting and planning. B. Results Monitoring and Evaluation Arrangements 54. The PMU will be responsible for results monitoring and evaluation and will develop a dedicated M&E Plan with a budget for data collection needs. Indicator sheets will be included to document the definition of each indicator, data sources, reporting timelines, and reporting formats. The PMU will prepare a monthly monitoring table and quarterly progress reports as well as annual reports. The PIM will define all periodic reporting, monitoring and evaluation arrangements throughout the project cycle. The results framework will be reviewed by the PSC during its regular meetings. The World Bank will monitor progress with the results framework through regular communication and implementation support missions. Independent operational assessments will be conducted at mid-term and at the end of the Project. An MTR will be conducted jointly by the government and the World Bank and will help to identify ways to improve Project implementation. An implementation and completion and results report (ICR) will 76There are very few Urban Planners in Liberia,\ and depending on market availability, this role may need to be filled by an international individual or firm. Page 27 of 73 The World Bank Liberia Urban Resilience Project (P169718) provide an assessment of all activities at the Project end. MPW will engage the services of an independent evaluation firm to assess Project status at the time of project closure. C. Sustainability 55. Selected interventions will incorporate climate resilient principles to enable long term sustainability of the infrastructure works. All infrastructure interventions will consider appropriate design standards taking into account future climate scenarios equivalent to their expected lifespan, meaning that for infrastructure that is expected to last for 30 years, the most likely climate scenario for 2050 will be considered to ensure that the design standard meets the projected flood return period into the future. It is expected that the Project will design for a flood return period of between 5 and 10 years, and this will be confirmed by the feasibility and design studies. Climate smart features will also be integrated into community infrastructure, which will be built away from potential flood prone areas, and slightly raised, to anticipate major flood events. 56. Supporting the government to have the technical, operational and financial resources to operate and maintain the infrastructure will be a key objective of the Project in order to ensure sustainability, as outlined in subcomponent 2.2. This includes a clear outline of the necessary institutional responsibilities, budgeting, processes, and human resources needed for O&M of the assets built, through the development of an asset management plan. Community ownership of interventions is also critical for sustainability. In this respect, the Project will fully engage with the respective stakeholders, local authorities, and communities, throughout the entire lifecycle of the interventions, from design to prioritization of interventions and implementation, to ensure that these are aligned with beneficiaries’ needs. 57. Financing is the cornerstone to the sustainability of the deliverables of this Project, this is why the Project also focuses on own source revenue strengthening activities under subcomponent 2.2. As of now, limited generation of revenues at the municipal level has hindered the sustainability of previous projects and attempts to increase specific services at the local level. In particular SWM collection and disposal is systematically under-funded in Monrovia, resulting in much higher levels of illegal dumping in drainage channels than would otherwise be if the system was working effectively. Therefore, the Project will provide support for required studies, spatial datasets, revision of policy and law as well as improvement of related revenue generating processes and systems. Accompanying capacity building efforts will contribute to an improved basis for increased own source revenue generation. IV. PROJECT APPRAISAL SUMMARY A. Technical and Economic Analysis Technical Analysis 58. In alignment with the cities selected for the Sustainable Cities Initiative pilot project in Liberia’s PAPD, selected cities for Component 2 of the LURP are Monrovia, Paynesville, Gbarnga, Buchanan, and Ganta. Selection is based on the size of the population, economic activities, capacity to finance activities Page 28 of 73 The World Bank Liberia Urban Resilience Project (P169718) from local fees and shared revenues, and some form of existing municipal structure that can be strengthened to provide more services (PAPD, 2018). Monrovia City, Paynesville City, and nine smaller municipalities make up the urban area referred to as Greater Monrovia. This urban area has an estimated population exceeding 1.5 million people, representing nearly 29 percent of the national population, and is the hub of government administration, economic, and transport activities in the country. These activities are stimulated by the country's busiest port, Monrovia Freeport, and the two neighbouring airports: Spriggs Payne in Monrovia and Roberts International Airport in Margibi County. Buchanan City capital of Grand Bassa County has an estimated population of more than 50,000. Buchanan is a port city, home to the ArcelorMittal Liberia, a subsidiary of an international iron ore mining company. Other economic activities include fishing, tourism, and trade. The next largest urban area is the city of Gbarnga, the capital of Bong County with an estimated population of more than 56,000. Gbarnga is located at the intersection of roads from Monrovia and northern Sierra Leone. Gbarnga is a rural city, as it is lacking in urban infrastructure and services. Economic activities are mostly in agriculture (notably poultry) and local trade. The city benefits greatly from its proximity to Cuttington University College (Episcopalian) and Phebe Hospital near Suakoko District 10 miles (16 km) west. Ganta is not a Capital City, it is legislated a city due to its estimated population of more than 42,000 people. Ganta is located in Nimba County as one of Liberia’s borders with Guinea. The economy of the city is fueled by activities in trade, agriculture, and hospitality. This area has been noted for its bustling and growing economy which is supported by the city’s connection to the West African Power Pool electricity supply. The next largest urban area, that is not being considered, in the current phase of this Project is the city of Kakata, with an estimated population of more than 34,000. Kakata is located in Margibi County, which borders Montserrado County. 59. The prioritized areas and the proposed urban drainage investments under the Project originate from technical and hydrological assessments, studies and plans developed by the Government of Liberia and World Bank studies. At this stage, four areas within Greater Monrovia have been prioritized by the Government of Liberia which are prone to urban floods particularly driven by local rainfall events. These urban flood hotspots are affected by regular floods for which a preliminary conceptual idea of possible drainage interventions and a spatial analysis has been carried out with rainfall events with different return periods for with-project and without-project scenarios to inform expected numbers of beneficiaries and economic benefits. 60. A high-level urban drainage assessment shows that most existing infrastructure of the primary drainage system (e.g., drainage outlets and culverts) are malfunctioning and are in need of repair and/or resizing due to increased runoff. Across the city there is a lack a comprehensive urban drainage system where secondary/tertiary drains are built with sufficient connectivity to the primary drainage system and sufficient retention of the overall system. Some of the areas of interest have open spaces which collect rainwater during the rainy season. However, these areas are crisscrossed by roads which have been constructed resulting in bottlenecks for the runoff. As part of an overall system, these areas can play a crucial role in water retention and can also serve as urban parcs during dry times. Preservation of these open spaces for water retention now and in the future in combination with some structural interventions can unlock the potential added value for urban drainage and the livability of the city. A Feasibility Study will define in more detail the needs and priorities for urban drainage in these areas. 61. Climate Change Co-Benefits. The Project is designed to specifically target climate change risks of today and into the future. The design was informed by a flood risk assessment for Greater Monrovia, a Page 29 of 73 The World Bank Liberia Urban Resilience Project (P169718) summary of which can be found in Annex 4. All proposed interventions are designed with the purpose of supporting Greater Monrovia’s ability to adapt to climate change and in turn support its progress towards its economic growth and poverty reduction goals. Specifically, Subcomponent 1.1 is dedicated to financing green, blue, and grey infrastructure to reduce climate risks and help the city adapt to climate change in rapidly developing urban communities. Drainage infrastructure will be designed to accommodate flooding according to 2050 climate change projections. Subcomponent 1.2 finances neighborhood upgrading, which will be based on climate change local area plans. All feasibility studies and designs for the investments will take climate risks into consideration and propose specific climate smart designs taking into account, but not limited to, location, and material use. Activities under Subcomponent 2.1 are geared towards reducing the creation of new climate change risks through effective development control and planning instruments and capacity building, in order to prevent new development in high climate risk areas and natural habits, such as wetlands that have a strong flood reducing impact, as well as environmental value. Climate risk maps will be developed to inform this spatial development planning. Subcomponent 2.2 capacity support to improve solid waste management systems will help to keep waste out of the drains, allowing it to perform its climate and flood risk reduction functions more effectively. In addition, support to increase municipal own source revenue mobilization will help to sustain solid waste management service delivery into the future, as climate change continues to accelerate and urban population and consumption patterns continue to rise. 62. Citizen Engagement and Social Inclusion. The Project aims to deliver its interventions and technical assistance through a participatory approach, which will include citizen engagement in all stages of the lifecycle of key Project activities, such as identification, design, implementation and monitoring of interventions. A bottom-up community informed approach will be particularly strong under Subcomponent 1.1 for final site selection (through consultations, focus group discussions and community resident interviews), and 1.2 for urban upgrading (also through focus group discussions, participatory preparation of maps and interviews), where in addition to considering the priorities of the community, in the construction of the infrastructure, labor intensive approaches will be considered in order to provide short term employment opportunities to the community, where possible. These consultative mechanisms will be conducted during the design stage, prior to the commencement of civil works. Social inclusion will be promoted throughout the Project, through a focus on empowering women, youth, the elderly, and people with disabilities in the decision-making process and considering their needs and challenges in the identification and design of interventions. The city task forces to be established under Component 2 will establish consultation mechanisms through which citizens, especially women, can make their voices heard with regard to the development of future plans at all levels. The establishment of consultation mechanism will occur prior to the development of said plans. This activity will consider identifying Civil Society Organizations (with particular attention to the influential women’s groups) and creating a civic alliance to support the spatial planning process. Coalition building involves resources (seminars, information materials) dedicated to informing and educating Civil Society Organization leaders. Further, all investments will apply a “universal access” principle to ensure equal access to services provided under the Project. The Project’s GM will allow for complaints and general comments on project activities to be received from all levels in all intervention areas. The Project’s target communities shall be educated about the role and function of the GM and how they could register their grievances and get appropriate resolutions to the satisfaction of complainants. Page 30 of 73 The World Bank Liberia Urban Resilience Project (P169718) 63. COVID-19 response. The Project will contribute to the Government’s and the World Bank’s COVID-19 response efforts. Improved water and sanitation facilities in target communities will increase hygiene and reduce potential COVID transmission. In addition, labor-intensive public works approaches will maximize opportunities for community livelihood opportunities and un-skilled workers. 64. Defining the gender gap. Liberia remains among the most unequal countries with regards to gender roles, ranking 156th place (out of 162 countries) with a Gender Inequality Index at 0.650 in 2020.77 Gender disparities and imbalances are widespread.78 This widespread perception goes on to create barriers to women's participation in public life and activities. While there is no quantitative baseline, qualitative gender assessments conducted for Greater Monrovia conclude that there is a lack of women involved in urban development related decision-making processes in Greater Monrovia.79 The lack of involvement of women exacerbates existing gender gaps, such as women’s limited access to safe, affordable, accessible infrastructure or gender-blind infrastructure design that doesn’t consider and address women’s needs. For example, in the market areas of Greater Monrovia women constitute the majority of the marketers but face higher risks than men since there is no sex-based restriction on the use of sanitation facilities,80 safety enhancing infrastructure such as proper streetlighting, or lack of childcare facilities, among others.81 Finally, unemployment rates are especially high among young women (68.8 percent female and 79.2 percent male labor force participation)82, and female unemployment is associated with workforce skills, and social norms that emphasize women’s reproductive roles over their roles as income earners83, leading to a lack of women employed in non-traditional jobs such as maintenance works. The rate of the informal employment rate is 90.9 percent for women and 69 percent for men and the vulnerable employment rate is 91.1 percent for women and 67.9 percent for men.84 Based on the above, the Project has identified three main gender gaps that are relevant for the urban space: (a) women’s limited participation in urban development planning and decision-making bodies and processes; (b) urban infrastructure designs are not responsive to diverse women’s and men’s needs; and (c) women lack economic opportunities. 65. Bridging the gender gap. The first gender gap with regard to the lack of women’s participation in decision-making will be addressed as follows: The Project will organize focus group discussions with women to inform decision-making with regard to (a) intervention areas and drainage as well as neighborhood and market upgrading infrastructure investments under Component 1; (b) organizing women’s focus group discussions to inform climate resilient spatial development plans; (c) establishing municipal mechanisms for increased participation of through urban task forces for the target cities under Component 2; and (d) ensuring women’s participation in trainings related to urban planning. The second gender gap with regard to gender blind design will be addressed as follows: The drainage and potential water and sewerage infrastructure will be designed to manage waterborne disease and public health 77 United Nations Development Reports. 2020. Human Development Reports. 78 Liberia Revised National Gender Policy (2018 - 2022) 79 Cities Alliance (2020): Women Transforming Monrovia. An Urban Assessment from a Gender Perspective in Liberia; Cities Alliance (2021): Liberia: How Women Experience the City. Gender Audit in Three Informal Communities; Greater Monrovia Urban Development Strategy (2021-2042) 80 World Bank, Humanitarian Street Map (2020): Open Mapping of Productivity and Pollution Impacts in Duala Market. 81 Humanitarian OpenStreetMap, ILab, OSM Liberia (2019): Final Report. Monrovia City Project, Liberia. 82 Modeled International Labour Organization estimates for 2020 (see https://data.worldbank.org/) 83 World Bank (2018): Country Partnership for the Republic of Liberia for the Period FY19-24. Report No. 130753-LR 84 Liberia Institute of Statistics and Geo-Information Services (2017): Household Income and Expenditure Survey 2016. Page 31 of 73 The World Bank Liberia Urban Resilience Project (P169718) impacts and co-optimize public space and access, which positively affects particularly women that are often at home, the caregiver and in charge of daily chores. Market upgrading activities will seek to address childcare needs e.g., setting aside spaces for childcare, incorporating new street lighting (to increase safety) and overall female-centric public space regeneration to address basic services around water and sanitation and safety needs (e.g., by installing sex-disaggregated toilets). Much of the urban development process has been lacking to ensure that such plans include women’s diverse needs in Liberia, the Project aims to seek to ensure that supported plans will address context-specific infrastructure and basic services. Specific neighborhood plans could e.g., plan for public spaces that combine public and social services and basic services provision, so as to provide opportunities for women to participate in the public space and increase their safety levels. The third gender gap with regard to women’s participation in the workforce will be addressed by encouraging women to participate in maintenance works under Component 1 and facilitated through the provision of free childcare facilities for workers near the work sites. It is hoped that this would contribute to long-term employment opportunities for women in non-traditional sectors. Women will furthermore be specifically in included in the O&M of infrastructure, including specific trainings. 66. Measuring the activities to close the gender gap. The Project has included the following indicators to measure how some of the identified gender gaps will be closed: The first gender gap will be measured through the following indicator: “Women trained in urban planning, management and development control”. The second gender gap will be measured with the following indicator: “All project urban planning and infrastructure design have been informed by consultations by target community women”; and the third gender gap will be measured through: “Women hired as maintenance workers for improved urban infrastructure”. 67. Rationale for public sector provision/financing. Flood risk in the Greater Monrovia Area is currently absorbed by the Government of Liberia at high costs. Increasing the country’s resilience to flooding and strengthening institutional capabilities to manage risks is an effective and efficient way to use public funds for the public good. Public financing will help strengthen and rehabilitate infrastructure crucial to improve the economic and social welfare of the population. Economic Analysis 68. The Project is expected to bring positive impact for Greater Monrovia in terms of enhanced urban living conditions and climate resilience, as well as strengthened municipal and institutional capacities for integrated urban management. An economic analysis was conducted to estimate the value- for-money of the Project investments, focusing on Component 1. Specifically, an (i) economic evaluation of drainage and flood risk management interventions whose benefits were measured through avoidance of direct damages due to reduced flood risk; and (ii) an economic evaluation of the avoidance of output losses (e.g., business interruption and other indirect losses), and the related increase in economic activities due to reduced perception of risk by investors. The analysis takes into account both future climate change and economic and population growth scenarios. 69. Results of the economic analysis showed that the Project is economically viable with a Net Present Value (NPV) of US$49 million and an Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of 17 percent. The sensitivity analysis of potential adverse effects such as higher capital costs or delays during implementation would Page 32 of 73 The World Bank Liberia Urban Resilience Project (P169718) lower these numbers, but the Project remains economically viable. The results can furthermore be seen as being at the lower end bound, as the analysis did not quantify additional benefits the Project will bring that cannot easily be monetized, such as benefits associated with environmental improvements, health benefits from reduced water borne disease, benefits associated with more efficient municipal urban management and governance, benefits associated with improved financial and operational sustainability, and overall benefits associated with improved quality of living conditions which would further increase the benefits calculated under this analysis. See Annex 3 for further details. B. Fiduciary (i) Financial Management 70. The PFMU under the MFDP is currently responsible for FM under World Bank-financed projects. The FM functions of the Project will be undertaken using the current FM arrangements for other World Bank financed projects in the PFMU which are assessed as adequate for ensuring that: (a) the funds are used only for the intended purposes in an efficient and economical way; (b) accurate, reliable, and timely periodic financial reports are prepared and submitted; and (c) adequate fiduciary assurances are provided through an independent audit of the Project. The PFMU is implementing 90 percent of the World Bank’s and other donor-financed projects in Liberia and the FM capacity developed under these projects is adequate to meet the World Bank’s requirements. The PFMU staff is comprised of 24 staff headed by the Director who is a Chartered Accountant, and all of the staff in the PFMU are familiar with World Bank procedures. 71. The rsk is assessed as ‘High’ and the residual FM risk for the Project is assessed as ‘Substantial.’ A detailed overview of the assessment findings and proposed risk mitigation measures include, among others: provision of the FM services by the PFMU and FM Officer in the PMU who will also be responsible for coordinating FM activities between the PMU and PFMU and external auditing by an independent qualified auditor. The LURP will need to be accommodated within the existing FM system at the PFMU. To do this, the PFMU will need to: (a) update the current accounting manual; (b) customize the existing accounting software to include the account of the new Project in order to generate the interim financial reports (IFRs) and financial statements; and (c) recruit external auditors. This should be completed within six months of the Project becoming effective. To enhance coordination between the LURP PMU and the PFMU, a Finance Officer will be hired by the Project to sit in the PMU and coordinate closely with PFMU. 72. The PFMU will open a designated account (DA) in U.S. dollars at a commercial bank agreed to by the World Bank where disbursements will be remitted into. The details of the FM assessment and aspects of the financial arrangements can be found in Annex 1. (ii) Procurement 73. Procurement under the Project will be carried out in accordance with the following documents: World Bank’s (a) “Procurement Regulations for Investment Project Financing (IPF) Borrowers” (Procurement Regulations) dated November 2020; (b) the “Guidelines on Preventing and Combating Fraud and Corruption in Projects Financed by International Bank for Reconstruction and Development Page 33 of 73 The World Bank Liberia Urban Resilience Project (P169718) (IBRD) Loans and IDA Credits and Grants”, dated October 15, 2006 and revised in January 2011 and as of July 1, 2016; and (c) other provisions stipulated in the Financing Agreement (FA). 74. Procurement Implementation Arrangements: The MPW, as the Implementing Agency, will set up a PMU that will be responsible for the implementation of the activities under the Project. The PMU will include two procurement specialists. Procurement implementation will be handled by the PMU. 75. Project Procurement Strategy for Development (PPSD). MPW with the support of World Bank has prepared a PPSD, which describes how the procurement activities will support the achievement of the PDO and deliver Value for Money. The procurement strategy will be linked to the project implementation plan to ensure proper sequencing of activities. Based on the PPSD findings, the Project has prepared a procurement plan covering the activities for the first 18 months to be agreed by the World Bank. The procurement plan will be reviewed, cleared and disclosed on the World Bank’s external website and will be updated annually in agreement with the World Bank. The Project will use the World Bank’s Systematic Tracking of Exchanges in Procurement (STEP) as a primary tool to submit, review and clear all procurement plans. The PPSD is a live document that would be regularly updated during project implementation to provide necessary justifications for procurement arrangements, procurement plans, and their updates. The Bidding Documents will be based on the Standard Procurement Documents, recently enhanced with the Environment, Social Health and Safety, Gender Based Violence (GBV), and Sexual Exploitation Abuse (SEA) related standards. 76. Procurement Planning: A Procurement Plan has been prepared by the Government detailing the activities to be carried out during the first 18 months reflecting the actual project implementation needs. The plan was finalized and approved by the World Bank. 77. Use of Country Systems: For procurements involving Procurement Procedures as outlined in the PPSD, the defined thresholds, national procurement systems may be used as defined by the PPSD. Open competitive approach to the market will be the World Bank preferred approach as it provides all eligible bidders/proposers with timely and equal opportunities to provide the required goods or services. .C. Legal Operational Policies . Triggered? Projects on International Waterways OP 7.50 No Projects in Disputed Areas OP 7.60 No . D. Environmental and Social 78. The Environmental and Social (E&S) risk rating is Substantial and takes into consideration, amongst other things, the type of Project and nature of its activities, the sensitivity of Project areas as well as E&S implementation capacity. Component 1 includes rehabilitating priority city-wide and neighborhood level infrastructure investments, and existing public assets in Greater Monrovia. The civil works may involve demolition, excavation, alterations, and other civil works. These activities might create short-term disturbances and create inconveniences to people in the Project area. Since most of Page 34 of 73 The World Bank Liberia Urban Resilience Project (P169718) the Project activities will take place in densely populated urban communities and within the city where restriction to Project locations may not be possible, issues such as public health and safety, noise and dust pollution are some of the risk and impacts to be addressed and the government has committed to manage these risks under the Environmental and Social Commitment Plan (ESCP), which was disclosed in-country on April 21, 2022, followed by World Bank disclosure. 79. Community health and safety issues, especially with regards to the safety of the rehabilitated community infrastructures, such as market facilities, public toilets and community centers, will need to be considered in the design, construction, and operation phases of these facilities. The potential risks and impacts would need to be explored further including issues related to soil, water availability, and use for construction, cultural heritages, inconvenience to the people during implementation, if any, among others. 80. The disposal of dredged and excavated materials and other construction related wastes will be managed carefully. The quantity of waste to be disposed will be assessed at an early stage through the development of a waste management plan to ensure that there exists sufficient disposal capacity to accommodate the waste. The Project will be working in residential and market areas and not in industrial areas, so the likelihood of hazardous waste being dredged is low, however, if it is identified this will also be addressed in the waste management plan. The recommendations of the plan will be informed by feasibility studies, and integrated into design and bidding documents, before going to tender. This is a disbursement condition for Component 1.1. works. 81. The Mesurado Wetlands are located in Monrovia and the site is particularly important for the protection of mangrove species and several species of birds and crocodiles. The wetlands are designated as a Ramsar site 1631.85 The four identified potential Project areas would not require any works or other activities that would negatively impact the Ramsar site. It is anticipated that improved planning and enforcement processes to minimize further flood risks by reducing the rate of urban encroachment into wetland areas would have a positive impact on Greater Monrovia’s wetlands, including the Ramsar site. 82. Overall, the Project is expected to promote positive social benefits for the wider urban population and transformation of the urban landscape by addressing constant flooding through flood control interventions, market intervention and provision of other resilient infrastructure. The social risk rating has considered (a) the likely risk to exclude women and most vulnerable people from the Project benefit thereby widening the inequality gaps; (b) the weak E&S capacity of the implementing agency to manage social risks and impacts; and (c) the lack of a single entity governing Greater Monrovia and often-overlapping mandates of involved entities which is likely to create coordination and collaboration challenges. Criteria for neighborhood and municipal infrastructure prioritization will be implemented through a participatory process during project implementation. The Project will implement mitigation measures proportional to associated risks including: (a) exploring and considering design options that could avoid or minimize livelihoods disturbances in the four localities as well as consulting affected communities on design options to be considered taking into consideration population density; (b) examining livelihoods activities undertaken in the Project impact corridors and their economic implications both to the affected people and to the greater Monrovia as a whole; (c) examining contexts 85 https://rsis.ramsar.org/ris/1631 Page 35 of 73 The World Bank Liberia Urban Resilience Project (P169718) and characteristics of local communities in each of those intervention locations; and (d) understanding the nature and challenges faced by vulnerable people when designing the Project and the mitigation measures. 83. As the specific Project sites are not yet identified, an Environmental and Social Management Framework (ESMF) shall guide the preparation of site-specific instruments. Prior to undertaking construction activities, the subproject will be screened and, if required, would prepare, disclose, consult and adopt Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA) studies, and Environmental and Social Management Plans (ESMPs) to assess the risks and impacts and develop mitigation and monitoring plan of those impacts. MPW has prepared Labor Management Procedures (LMP) which includes detailed information on the work terms and conditions, and it was disclosed in-country on April 21, 2022, followed by the disclosure on the World Bank’s website. The LMP includes ESS 2 (Labor and Working Conditions) requirements and national provisions. The LMP has detailed provisions for grievance mechanism for community workers in which roles and responsibilities for monitoring such workers would clearly be explained. A separate GM will be established for all direct workers and contracted workers to raise workplace concerns, which will be separate from the GM required under ESS10 (Stakeholder Engagement and Information Disclosure). 84. The proposed rehabilitation and construction of infrastructure indicate and anticipate the risks of relocations of squatters and encroachers, if they are found squatting or encroaching the public properties identified for rehabilitation. To address this, Resettlement Action Plans (RAP) shall be prepared, disclosed, consulted and adopted, if required so. To guide the preparation of the RAP, a Resettlement Policy Framework (RPF) has been prepared, cleared by the World Bank, and disclosed in- country on April 21, 2022 followed by the disclosure on the World Bank’s website. 85. GBV is widespread in Liberia. The Project may require deployment of outside laborers for specialized works. Subsequently the local conditions and influx of outside laborers may complicate this issue. GBV risks and mitigation measures would be detailed as part of ESMPs. To avoid any incidences of GBV, a Gender specialist with work experience in GBV risks management shall be part of civil works supervision teams. 86. Sexual exploitation and abuse and sexual harassment (SEA/SH). The Project’s SEA/SH risk rating is substantial, particularly in light of Liberia’s high rates of GBV, entrenched gender inequality, and the potential for the Project to increase SEA/SH risks. Nationally, 60 percent of women and girls have experienced physical violence and 9 percent have experienced sexual violence.86 Concerns about GBV and women’s security as an urgent community problem have arisen in Project focus group discussions with women. Services for GBV survivors (including healthcare, psychosocial support and justice) limited, even in urban settings. Further, transactional sexual relationships are often viewed as a survival mechanism for adolescent girls in urban areas to obtain food, housing, clothing, school fees and other essentials. The Project has the potential to increase these risks in a number of ways, including by bringing 86Liberia Institute of Statistics and Geo-Information Services (LISGIS) (2020). Demographic and Health Survey 2019-2020. Monrovia, Liberia. Notably, rates of physical violence reported under the 2020 DHS are significantly higher than the 2007 DHS (44 percent). Further, more than half of Liberian women and girls (58.2 percent) have experienced physical, sexual or emotional intimate partner violence in their lifetime, including 46.3 percent in the last 12 months, illustrating the urgent nature of the problem. Page 36 of 73 The World Bank Liberia Urban Resilience Project (P169718) workers and laborers implementing the Project’s infrastructure activities into contact with vulnerable women and girls. 87. The Project has conducted a SEA/SH risk assessment and will be developing an SEA/SH Action Plan with key risk mitigation measures. Measures will include at a minimum: (a) requirements for contractors to submit Codes of Conduct and include plans for worker training and accountability in their c-ESMPs and other safeguards instruments; (b) a Grievance Mechanism with special procedures for confidential and ethical reporting of SEA/SH incidents; (c) mapping of GBV service providers in the Project area to provide a referral pathway for survivors who report; (d) community sensitization on SEA/SH risks and reporting; and (e) training for the Implementing Agency on addressing SEA/SH as part of social risk management. The Project will explore the engagement of a qualified GBV service provider or NGO to support the Implementing Agency to design and implement the measures and respond to any incidents. 88. The Project shall have wide scope for consultations and feedback collection from affected people and beneficiaries. The Project has adopted a stakeholder engagement plan (SEP) to identify the stakeholders of various level, indicate the tentative time and place for consultations and engagements and budget. The SEP shall continuously be updated and disclosed for public whenever it will be required. The consultations with prospective stakeholders and feedback collection process shall be done throughout the Project. The SEP was disclosed in-country on April 20, 2022 followed by the disclosure on the World Bank’s website. 89. The Project will establish a functional multi-channel Grievance Mechanism (GM) to handle grievances received from the project affected people and community. The Project communities and beneficiaries shall be educated about the role and function of the GM and how to register their grievances and get appropriate resolution with the satisfaction of complainants. Aggrieved parties will have the option to escalate complaints through the GM. 90. Overall, the Project will positively impact environment, people, society and the risks and impacts are expected for short term and reversible during the construction period. V. GRIEVANCE REDRESS SERVICES 91. Communities and individuals who believe that they are adversely affected by a World Bank (WB) supported project may submit complaints to existing project-level grievance redress mechanisms or the World BankB’s Grievance Redress Service (GRS). The GRS ensures that complaints received are promptly reviewed in order to address project-related concerns. Project affected communities and individuals may submit their complaint to the World BankB’s independent Inspection Panel which determines whether harm occurred, or could occur, as a result of World BankB non-compliance with its policies and procedures. Complaints may be submitted at any time after concerns have been brought directly to the World Bank's attention, and World Bank Management has been given an opportunity to respond. For information on how to submit complaints to the World Bank’s corporate Grievance Redress Service (GRS), please visit http://www.worldbank.org/en/projects- operations/products-and-services/grievance-redress-service. For information on how to submit complaints to the World Bank Inspection Panel, please visit www.inspectionpanel.org. Page 37 of 73 The World Bank Liberia Urban Resilience Project (P169718) VI. KEY RISKS 92. The overall risk of the Project is Substantial due to risks associated with the political and governance, technical design, institutional capacity for implementation and sustainability, fiduciary, environment and social, and stakeholders. 93. Political and Governance Risk is rated as Substantial. Liberia’s continued transition out of fragility will require further strengthening of the social contract between the government and its citizens. Institutional and jurisdictional fragmentation, incomplete decentralization, burdensome regulation, and weak institutions and enforcement of public policies and non-transparency inhibit the development of Liberia’s private and public sectors. Local governments lack the mandate and capacity to collect taxes, and central government transfers are insufficient to finance municipal service delivery. To mitigate these risks, the Project includes activities to increase capacities for urban management, improve urban development control processes, own source revenue mobilization, and improve coordination amongst actors. 94. Technical Design Risk is rated as Substantial. The Project design includes infrastructure development, which will require significant engineering expertise and flexibility, which may not be available within the implementing agencies. Community-led upgrading activities require adequate skill sets, which may not fully exist as this is a relatively new concept in Liberia. Capacity building efforts will partly require reforms, which in turn depend on political will. To mitigate the risks, the Project will ensure that the PMU will be adequately staffed with required skill sets and develop an adequate M&E system to be used as a steering tool for implementation. Experienced consultants and firms will be engaged to work with local staff for community/neighborhood facilitation, planning and civil/municipal engineering design. Technical audits will be conducted on a regular basis. 95. Institutional Capacity for Implementation and Sustainability Risk is rated as High: No single entity is responsible for integrated infrastructure investments and service delivery in Greater Monrovia. Key actors lack institutional capacities due to lack of number of staff, lack of exposure to global good practices, and lack of educational opportunities on urban planning, disaster risk management, etc. within country. Capacity building activities under Component 2 seek to mitigate this risk. In addition, financing for operations and maintenance is a major risk to the sustainability of the investments. This is being addressed through dedicated Component 2 activities. The PMU will implement the parallel financing portions from the World Bank and AFD, which poses a risk due to an increased workload for the PMU staff. However, the PMU staffing structure foresees several technical specialists as well as two procurement specialists, which will mitigate this risk. A joint PIM for both financings will guide the implementation arrangements to further mitigate coordination related risks and harmonize approaches while ensuring that World Bank policies, procedures and regulations for E&S and fiduciary related matters for the World Bank financing are followed. 96. Fiduciary Risk is rated as Substantial. Low levels of capacities could affect Project implementation from a fiduciary perspective. The FM rating is considered to be ‘High’ but if risk mitigation measures are implemented, the residual risk is considered to be ‘Substantial’. Mitigation measures will include capacity building of PFMU and PMU staff, and the recruitment of an additional finance officer to be seated in the Page 38 of 73 The World Bank Liberia Urban Resilience Project (P169718) PMU to increase coordination between the two entities. The procurement risk is also ‘High’ and the residual risk, after implementation of mitigation measures, is rated as ‘Substantial’. The PMU will include two procurement officers to mitigate the procurement related risks. 97. Environment and Social Risk is rated Substantial. The E&S rating is based on initial screening of proposed project activities, especially activities under Component 1, considering issues such as the scale of project activities, project locations, and safeguard implementation capacity of project implementing agencies. Component 1 has the potential to generate environmental and social risks and impacts which the Borrower will need to assess, manage, and monitor during project life cycle. The civil works proposed may involve demolition, excavation, alterations, construction and other works although efforts to minimize this will be an important planning and design principle. These activities might create short-term disturbances to the environment and inconveniences to the project site residents and the city residents, since select intervention sites could be located in dense informal settlements. The social impacts of the Project are expected to be positive. The Project may need to relocate and rehabilitate a few squatters and encroachers. To address this, a RPF has been prepared, approved and disclosed. 98. Stakeholders Risk is rated as Substantial. The Project will involve many stakeholders at various levels to understand the limitations, needs and challenges of the stakeholders, maximize the benefits of the Project, and engage all stakeholders, the Project shall require identification of stakeholders and a systematic approach to stakeholder engagement through the preparation of an SEP. A project level GM will be constituted in effective manner for meaningful stakeholder engagement and to address grievance, if any. . Page 39 of 73 The World Bank Liberia Urban Resilience Project (P169718) VII. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND MONITORING Results Framework COUNTRY: Liberia Liberia Urban Resilience Project Project Development Objectives(s) The Project Development Objective (PDO) is to increase flood resilience and access to urban infrastructure in selected neighborhoods and to improve urban management in Liberia. Project Development Objective Indicators RESULT_FRAME_TBL_ PD O Indicator Name PBC Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 Increased flood resilience in selected neighborhoods Area protected from flooding 0.00 0.00 150.00 340.00 (Hectare(Ha)) Increase access to urban infrastructure in selected neighborhoods People benefitting from improved urban 0.00 0.00 100,000.00 200,000.00 infrastructure (Number) Women provided with improved 0.00 0.00 750.00 1,500.00 urban infrastructure (Number) Improve urban management in Liberia Urban Management Capacity Enhanced No No Yes Yes (Yes/No) PDO Table SPACE Page 40 of 73 The World Bank Liberia Urban Resilience Project (P169718) Intermediate Results Indicators by Components RESULT_FRAME_TBL_ IO Indicator Name PBC Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 Component 1: Climate Resilient Infrastructure and Urban Upgrading Length of drainage constructed or rehabilitated designed to accommodate 0.00 0.00 4.00 7.50 future climate scenarios (Kilometers) All infrastructure financed under the project is designed or located with low probability of flooding under 2050 No Yes Yes Yes climate scenario (Yes/No) Women hired as maintenance workers for improved urban infrastructure 0.00 15.00 30.00 50.00 (Number) Component 2: Strengthening Integrated Resilient Urban Development Capacity Area designated for water retention for 0.00 0.00 0.00 30.00 climate and flood resilience (Hectare(Ha)) People trained in urban planning, management and development control 0.00 50.00 150.00 300.00 (Number) Women trained in urban planning, management and development 0.00 15.00 50.00 100.00 control (Number) Spatial Development and Infrastructure Investment Plans have been developed No No Yes Yes and endorsed in at least three Cities (Yes/No) Cities with SWM Operational Plans 0.00 0.00 2.00 3.00 Developed (Number) All project urban planning and infrastructure design have been informed No Yes Yes Yes by consultations by target community Page 41 of 73 The World Bank Liberia Urban Resilience Project (P169718) RESULT_FRAME_TBL_ IO Indicator Name PBC Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 women (Yes/No) Component 3: Project Management Grievances addressed within the time specified in the Grievance Mechanism 0.00 85.00 85.00 85.00 (Percentage) IO Table SPACE UL Table SPACE Monitoring & Evaluation Plan: PDO Indicators Methodology for Data Responsibility for Data Indicator Name Definition/Description Frequency Datasource Collection Collection Measures the area that will be protected from floods as a results of component 1 investments. It is assumed in the results target Progress Based on detailed estimation that the reports and Annual design reports and PMU Area protected from flooding designed flood event is a 1- design flood modelling in 10 year flood event in reports 2050. IPCC climate change scenarios RCP4.5 and SSP3 have been used, which are considered moderate scenarios. The indicator measures the Surveys, Evaluation of People benefitting from improved urban Annual PMU number of people that will implementati household surveys and infrastructure benefit from the flood on GIS based tools Page 42 of 73 The World Bank Liberia Urban Resilience Project (P169718) interventions and the reports and neighborhood upgrading maps. interventions in their communities either through reduced flooding of their own assets, better accessibility of roads and other services, schools, markets and jobs, and also the community upgrading infrastructure. Same as Same as Measures the proportion of Same as parent Same as parent Women provided with improved parent parent women under the parent indicator indicator urban infrastructure indicator indicator indicator. Composit Outcome Indicator to assess improvements in urban management capacity, based on an assessment of the extent to which capacity for urban planning and See relevant management has been Project Every 2 years intermediate indicator PMU Urban Management Capacity Enhanced advanced in terms of human reporting descriptions. capacity building, urban development tools and technology, and plans are in place and endorsed. If the intermediate indicator targets related to these objectives are achieved, then this outcome indicator Page 43 of 73 The World Bank Liberia Urban Resilience Project (P169718) can be considered achieved. ME PDO Table SPACE Monitoring & Evaluation Plan: Intermediate Results Indicators Methodology for Data Responsibility for Data Indicator Name Definition/Description Frequency Datasource Collection Collection Length of drainage channels constructed or rehabilitated Project under the project. The Management PMU verification of Length of drainage constructed or drainage will be designed to Annual Unit Activity supervision engineer Supervision Engineer rehabilitated designed to accommodate take projected extreme Progress reports. future climate scenarios rainfall events, taking into Reporting. account 2050 climate scenarios. Infrastructur Design and location of e design investments meet criteria to reports. Review design reports be safe from at least 5-year All infrastructure financed under the Verified by to confirm 2050 climate return period flood in 2050 project is designed or located with low Annual beneficiary scenarios are PMU scenario. IPCC climate probability of flooding under 2050 climate surveys after integrated into all change scenarios RCP4.5 scenario infrastructur infrastructure design. and SSP3 should be used, e is which are considered constructed. moderate scenarios. The indicator measures how Reports from many women will be hired MPW, Review of reports and Women hired as maintenance workers for for maintenance works of Annual contractors interviews with PMU improved urban infrastructure infrastructure supported and field community leaders under component 1 (e.g. visits drainage maintenance). Page 44 of 73 The World Bank Liberia Urban Resilience Project (P169718) In support of climate change resilience and flood risk management, the spatial development plan will Government Review of government Area designated for water retention for indicate areas that should Annual PMU declaration. declaration climate and flood resilience be set aside for flood water retention to allow the city to absorb increasingly intense rainfall events with climate change impacts. The cumulative number of participants from the project supported trainings Compilation Attendance sheets provided to relevant of should indicate People trained in urban planning, institutions and local Annual Attendance PMU whether participants management and development control government in urban sheets of all are male or female. planning, management trainings. (including administration and accounting) and development control. Photographs from Women trained in urban planning, Attendance Annual meetings will help to PMU management and development Number of women trained. sheets. support verification. control Infrastructure Investment Published Plans for at least 3 cities Plan and developed to inform follow- Summary of Spatial Development and Infrastructure Review plans and City on investments in high Annual City Council PMU Investment Plans have been developed Council summary. priority urban infrastructure Meeting to and endorsed in at least three Cities and service delivery needs. confirm These plans will be endorsement endorsed by the respective . Page 45 of 73 The World Bank Liberia Urban Resilience Project (P169718) City Councils. Number of Cities that have developed Solid Waste Plans Management Operational Review of plans developed Cities with SWM Operational Plans Plans, including financial Annual developed under the PMU under the Developed model, private sector project. project. engagement plan and operational needs of the system. Confirm that dedicated Methodology gender consultations The indicator will track for the have been made whether all core development All project urban planning and through all core deliverables of the project of the infrastructure design have been informed Annual deliverables of the PMU are informed through plans; Consul by consultations by target community project through review dedicated consultations tation women of all relevant with women and other reports; Desi completion and vulnerable groups. gn reports consultation reports. PMU to report on All grievances are addressed number of grievances Grievances addressed within the time Quarterly GM reporting PMU in a timely inline with the and the response and specified in the Grievance Mechanism project GM framework. resolution time. ME IO Table SPACE Page 46 of 73 The World Bank Liberia Urban Resilience Project (P169718) ANNEX 1: Implementation Arrangements and Support Plan (i) Project Institutional and Implementation Arrangements 1. The following schematic illustrates the project implementation arrangements. A PIM is being drafted to articulate the details of the implementing arrangements. Since World Bank and AFD intend to use the same implementing arrangements, including the same PMU team, a common PIM will be developed that articulates the common procedures to undertake and any specific differences. AFD uses the same ESF guidelines as World Bank, and similar fiduciary guidelines. The two teams have committed to help the Client implement the two parallel projects in a streamlined way that minimizes the burden on the Government. Figure 1.1: Project implementation arrangements 2. Since the Project Preparation Advance from the World Bank is effective, the PMU will be hired using World Bank project funds. Project management cost sharing arrangements will be determined with AFD, with the general understanding that 10 percent of each respective project will be used to support project management costs. (ii) Financial Management 3. Given that the PFMU at the Ministry of Finance and Development Planning is currently managing the fiduciary services for over 90 percent of the World Bank- financed projects, the Project will build on existing FM arrangements for projects at the PFMU which is assessed as adequate for ensuring that: (a) Page 47 of 73 The World Bank Liberia Urban Resilience Project (P169718) the funds are used only for the intended purposes in an efficient and economical way; (b) the preparation of accurate, reliable and timely periodic financial reports; (c) the safeguarding of the entity’s assets; and (d) adequate fiduciary assurances are provided through an independent audit of the Project. 4. The overall FM risk for the Project is assessed as High but the residual risk is considered to be ‘Substantial’ due to the articulated risk mitigating measures including the provision of the FM services by the qualified and experience staff at the PFMU and external auditing by the General Auditing Commission. 5. The FM and accounting functions of the Project will be undertaken using the current FM arrangements for projects at the PFMU. The PFMU will be responsible for preparation and submission of the IFRs every quarter in compliance with the Grant Agreement, submitting audited annual reports to the MOE and World Bank and for all the FM issues related to the Project. 6. Budgeting. The FM assessment has revealed that there is a budgeting system in place at the PFMU to ensure smooth implementation of the Project to achieve the PDO. This system is unique to other World Bank financed projects at the PFMU being implemented by Project Implementation Units in Ministries and Agencies. The PMU at the MPW in collaboration with the PFMU respectively, before the commencement of the fiscal year, are required to prepare and submit an 18-month work plan and budget to the World Bank for no objection no later than two months before the beginning of each calendar year. The project management teams are expected to monitor the implementation progress against the work plan and budget for the planned project expenditures under each disbursement categories/components. In the case where there are variances, there will be detailed narration about the causes and mitigation measures to avoid their recurrences, in the quarterly IFRs. These arrangements would apply for the proposed Project. 7. Accounting and maintenance of accounting records. The Project will use the SUN accounting system for project accounting and financial management. The accounting system is currently in use at the PFMU, the PFMU is in the process of migrating to Freebalance in the Integrated FM System. The Project progress in using the system will be followed closely by the World Bank. The World Bank will identify and provide mitigating measures on any challenges that may arise with the SUN System. It is expected that the SUN System accounting software will be adequate for accounting purposes for the Project. 8. Periodic Financial Reporting. The PFMU, through its Director for Donor Financed Projects will be responsible for preparing the quarterly unaudited IFRs. The IFRs will be submitted to the World Bank 45 days after end of each fiscal calendar quarter. The existing IFR format currently used by other World Bank financed projects in Liberia will be customized for the LURP and agreed upon. The Project will also prepare annual financial statements at the end of the fiscal year in accordance with International Public Sector Accounting Standards – cash basis. The financial statements will comprise, at a minimum, of: (a) Sources and uses of funds (summary of Expenditures shown under the main program headings and by main categories of expenditures for the period); and (b) Notes to the financial statements, including background information on the Project, the accounting policies, detailed analysis, and relevant explanation of the main accounts/major balances, etc. In addition, the Project shall provide, as an annex Page 48 of 73 The World Bank Liberia Urban Resilience Project (P169718) to the financial statements, an inventory of fixed assets acquired according to asset classes, dates of purchase, location, and cost. 9. Staffing. The PFMU is headed by a Director of Donor Financed Projects who is a Chartered Accountant. There is a Deputy Director (Chartered Accountant) and Head of Internal Audit (Chartered Accountant) who provide technical supports the Director along with several qualified and experienced Project Accountants who are acquainted with the World Bank’s financial management rules. These qualified and experienced staff are expected to work on the Project. The cost of running the PFMU (salaries and operational costs) will be shared on pro-rata basis between the World Bank’s financed projects financially managed by the PFMU. The PMU will hire or second a Finance Officer who will be a part qualified professional accountant with the TORs agreed to by the World Bank. 10. Internal Controls and Audit. The PFMU updated Financial Procedures Manual and the provisions of the revised amended and restated Public Financial Management Act of the Republic of Liberia will govern the internal controls. PFMU has established an Internal Audit Section that will undertake the risk based internal audit methodology and will submit the internal audit reports 45 days after the quarters ended March and September of each year. In addition, they conduct an enterprise risk assessment of the Project and the PFMU on an annual basis. There is adequate segregation of duties within the PFMU to host the Project. All these controls will also be applied to the Project. The Project will maintain fixed assets for all material assets that will be acquired using the project funds. The World Bank will provide capacity building training to the current and newly recruited staff on the Project to boost their capacity in the necessary FM areas of needs. 11. External Audit Arrangements. Annual audits will be conducted at the end of each fiscal year of the Government of Liberia for the Project. The General Audit Commission (GAC) will conduct the external audit as required by law. Alternatively, other independent and qualified audit firms, acceptable to the World Bank, would be selected to carry out the audit of the Project if GAC will not be able to conduct the audit. Additionally, GAC is also allowed to conduct a joint audit with other auditing firms that are acceptable to the World Bank. The selection of independent firms other than GAC shall be on competitive basis and in accordance with the World Bank's procurement guidelines and would be selected within six months of project effectiveness. The TORs of the auditors shall be cleared or granted no objection by the World Bank. The Project financial statements including movements in the designated accounts will be audited in accordance with International Standards of Supreme Audit Institutions and a single opinion will be issued to cover the project financial statements in accordance with the World Bank’s audit policy. The auditors’ report and opinion in respect on the financial statements, including the management letter, would be furnished to the World Bank within six months after the end of each fiscal year. 12. Conclusion: The overall financial management risk is assessed as ‘High’ but reduced to a residual risk rating of ‘Substantial’ in view of the risk-mitigation measures to be put in place. These include the use of the FM system of the PFMU, management of the FM services by the existing staff at the PFMU who have experience in World Bank-financed projects, and the strengthening of on-the-job training to be provided for the staff in the PMU and PFMU. The PFMU will maintain financial records for the Project and will submit to the World Bank, quarterly unaudited IFRs 45 days after the end of each quarter. In addition, the project management will submit the project-audited accounts on an annual basis six month after the end of each fiscal year, in accordance with the legal covenants to be agreed upon for the Project. Page 49 of 73 The World Bank Liberia Urban Resilience Project (P169718) 13. Implementation Support Plan: FM implementation support would be conducted consistent with the risks rating for the Project (see Table 1.1). The FM implementation support missions’ objectives will include reviewing the expenditure for eligibility, availability of supporting documentation and adequacy for documentation. Table 1.1: Risk Rating Summary Table (H = High; S = Substantial; M = Medium) Risk Risk Risk mitigating measures Conditions of Residual rating Effectiveness Risk (Yes or No) rating INHERENT RISKS 1 Country Level H The government has developed a PFM strategy No H Weaknesses in and related action plan and is being supported legislative scrutiny, low in implementation by donors, including the human capacity, World Bank. declining revenues and energy challenges affecting timely and adequate intergovernmental fiscal transfers. 2 Entity Level H An independent project financial management No S The political arm of the team with officers paid by the Project will Entity and / or manage the fiduciary aspects of the Project to Management may provide increased independence. An unduly interfere with, independent external audit will be carried out and/or override, project annually under the Project. Initially, regular six financial management monthly FM reviews will be conducted by the controls. World Bank to provide support. Fiduciary controls will be enhanced through mitigation measures to address control risks outlined below, including: -Boosting Internal Audit support by expanding the scope of project internal auditor - Enhanced implementation support by the World Bank 3 Project Level H An FM team situated in the PFMU will comprise No S Weak FM capacity qualified personnel that will handle the day-to- could result in slow day management for the Project World Bank execution of the project FM support will be provided to enhance FM and delayed reporting policies and procedures and provide training could impact on and FM implementation support will be regular progress. (at least six monthly). CONTROL RISKS 4 Budgeting S The Project budget will be finalized prior to No M 18-month work plan negotiation. The AWP would be submitted and Budget preparation annually before implementation starts for Page 50 of 73 The World Bank Liberia Urban Resilience Project (P169718) Risk Risk Risk mitigating measures Conditions of Residual rating Effectiveness Risk (Yes or No) rating does not reflect a review by the Bank team which would ensure it comprehensive and is realistic and unit cost estimates are adequate plan of reasonable based on industry and global efficient and economic experiences gathered in some jurisdictions that expenditure to achieve have undertaken similar operations and also results for use in cross check the same with the local market. control of the use of Also, budget execution reporting through funds. Caused by delay quarterly IFRs will be routinely monitored by in preparations and the World Bank with variations in unit costs inadequacy in( a) level tracked to ensure major deviations are followed of activities covered up and investigated. The Budget Office will also (i.e., monitor budgeted activities to ensure effective comprehensiveness), use of budgets and( b) reliability of unit/total costs. Poor budget monitoring can lead to budget overruns. 5 Accounting H Effective installation and training on Sun will No S An accounting system support improvement, having dedicated FM that is incapable of Staff hired to the Project boosting PFMU accurately recording capacity. The Financial Procedures Manual will project transactions in a be revised to provide comprehensive guidance timely manner resulting on accounting. The World Bank’s will provide in unreliable, untimely support to relevant project staff at PFMU. financial information and difficulties in assessing the financial status of the Project and how financial resources have been consumed. 6 Internal Control H Clearly defined internal control framework No S Internal controls in documented in PFMU FM Manual that is place for the Project are subject to regular control by a project Internal insufficient in coverage Auditor in the PFMU. Training to be conducted and/or design to detect for FM staff to enhance knowledge and capacity the improper use of to perform key internal controls well. Internal project funds. No audit reports will be shared with the World system to monitor Bank. internal controls to ensure they are functioning as intended including addressing external audit recommendations. Page 51 of 73 The World Bank Liberia Urban Resilience Project (P169718) Risk Risk Risk mitigating measures Conditions of Residual rating Effectiveness Risk (Yes or No) rating 7 Fund Flow S The PFMU will be responsible for preparing and No M Inadequate funds flow submitting withdrawal applications. IDA funds to implement the will be disbursed through the USD- Project effectively. denominated Designated Account to be opened Transfers to the Project by the PFMU. Simplified flow of funds are not properly arrangements will be included in the FM authorized. Project Manual. Dedicated FM staff and training, as funds are not noted above, will support adequate funds flow adequately for the Project. safeguarded, and cash transactions of the Project are not able to be accounted for in a complete, accurate and timely manner. 8 Financial Reporting S Project will have dedicated FM staff recruited to Yes (FM staff M Financial reports of the the PMU to enhance PFMU capacity and the recruitment) Project are unreliable sun System will be used to track and monitor and/or outdated expenses. All the FM staff will be trained on the resulting in difficulties World Bank procedures. in (a) timely assessment of the financial performance of the Project, and (b) project management accountability for the proper use of projects funds. 9 Auditing S The audit TOR will be agreed, and General No M The audit will not Auditing Commission will conduct the audit. detect significant The audit would be done in accordance with improper use of project International Standards of Supreme Audit funds, non-compliance Institution promulgated by the International with World Bank Organization of Supreme Audit Institutions. requirements, and/or After the audit the client will be required to internal control prepare an audit implementation plan which weaknesses. will show who will be responsible for implementing each recommendation and gives a deadline on when it will be implemented. The World Bank will liaise closely with implementing agencies during FM implementation support to ensure that management takes corrective actions on identified weaknesses in internal controls. OVERALL RISK RATING H S Page 52 of 73 The World Bank Liberia Urban Resilience Project (P169718) (iii) Disbursement 14. Funds Flow and Disbursement Arrangements. Adequate funds flow arrangements will be put in place and have been agreed with the World Bank. The funds will flow into a Designated Account in a commercial bank in Liberia acceptable to the World Bank. The IFR projection method of disbursement will apply to the Project. Other methods of disbursement will include advances, direct payments, special commitments, and reimbursements. Payments made against advances would be secured against bank guarantees by a commercial bank and or bonds acceptable to the World Bank. The Project will have a separate Designated Account to that of the parallel AFD project. 15. The disbursement arrangements will consider, among other things, an assessment of the FM and procurement arrangements, cash flow needs of the Project, and disbursement experience with the Borrower. Those arrangements are outlined in the FA and additional information will be provided in the disbursement letter, which will form part of the FA. 16. Before funds from the DA are withdrawn or committed, the authorized representative of the Borrower (as designated in the FA) will furnish to the World Bank, electronically through the Client Connection website (http://clientconnection.worldbank.org), or through an authorized signatory Designation Letter, the name(s) of the official(s) authorized (a) to sign and submit applications for withdrawal and applications for a Special Commitment (collectively, applications); and (b) to receive secure identification credentials from the World Bank. The Government will notify the World Bank of any changes in signature authority, either electronically in Client Connection or through an updated authorized signatory Designation Letter. Applications will be provided to the World Bank in such form as is required to access funds from the Financing Account and will include such information as the World Bank may reasonably request. Applications and necessary supporting documents will be submitted to the World Bank electronically, in a manner and on terms and conditions specified by the World Bank, through the Client Connection website at http://clientconnection.worldbank.org. The World Bank will, at its discretion, temporarily or permanently disallow the electronic submission of applications by the Borrower. The World Bank will permit the Government to complete and submit applications manually in paper form. Paper application forms can be found on the Client Connection website at http://clientconnection.worldbank.org or may be obtained from the World Bank upon request. The World Bank establishes a minimum value for applications for Reimbursement, Direct Payment, and Special Commitment. The World Bank reserves the right to not accept applications that are below such minimum value. 17. The following table specifies categories of eligible expenditures. Table 1.2: Eligible Expenditures Category Amount of the Amount of the Percentage of Credit Allocated Grant Allocated Expenditures to be (expressed in SDR) (expressed in SDR) Financed (inclusive of Taxes) (1) Goods, works, non- 7,250,000 5,800,000 100% (56% Credit and consulting services, 44% Grant) consulting services, Page 53 of 73 The World Bank Liberia Urban Resilience Project (P169718) Operating Costs and Training for the Project (except works for Part A.1 of the Project) (2) works for Part A.1 of 7,250,000 7,250,000 100% (50% Credit and the Project 50% Grant) (3) Emergency 0 0 100% Expenditures under Part D of the Project (4) Refund of Preparation 1,450,000 Amount payable Advance pursuant to Section 2.07 (a) of the General Conditions TOTAL AMOUNT 14,500,000 14,500,000 (iv) Procurement 18. Applicable Procurement Procedures. The Borrower will carry out procurement under the Project in accordance with: (a) World Bank’s Procurement Regulations for IPF Borrowers dated November 2020); (b) World Bank’s Guidelines on Combating Fraud and Corruption in Projects Financed by IBRD Loans and IDA Credits and Grants, dated October 15, 2006, and revised in January 2011 and as of July 1, 2016; and (c) other provisions stipulated in the FA. 19. PPSD. Based on the PPSD findings, MPW prepared a procurement plan covering activities for the first 18 months, which have been agreed by the World Bank. The procurement plan will be reviewed, cleared and disclosed on the World Bank’s external website. The procurement plan will be updated in agreement with the World Bank annually or as required to reflect the Project’s actual implementation needs and improvements in institutional capacity. The Project will use the World Bank’s (STEP as a primary tool to submit, review and clear all procurement plans. The PPSD is a living document that would be regularly updated during project implementation to provide necessary justifications for procurement arrangements, plans, and their updates. The PPSD findings indicate that there will be international firms participating in high value, high risk goods and consultancies as the market will be approached internationally. This is a result of the lack of adequate technical experience, human resources and facilities, as well as the financial capacity and capability required to execute the size and complexity of several project activities. Nonetheless, when it comes to low value, low risk assignments, the national and international firms will also compete, and the assignment can be won by either national or international firms. The typical contract types are Admeasurement (BOQ), Lumpsum and Time based. 20. Procurement Implementation Arrangements. Procurement under the Project will be implemented by MPW. The PMU will competitively recruit two experienced Procurement Specialists who will both be providing procurement implementation supports to the PIU on procurement and contract management. It is also important to indicate that the Procurement Specialists will be required to have experience in donor funded projects. The implementing agency will competitively hire Page 54 of 73 The World Bank Liberia Urban Resilience Project (P169718) experienced/qualified services providers, consulting firms, local firms, or other organizations to support implementation of some aspects of the activities. 21. Capacity Assessment and Procurement Risk Assessment and Mitigation Action Plan. A Capacity and Risk Assessment of the MPW was carried out and reviewed the procurement procedures, organizational structures, staffing, and skills for procurement management of the Project. The overall risk to procurement was considered Substantial. However, the Ministry has already implemented many projects including environmental and social/infrastructure related projects over the period and has competent and experienced staff that could ensure effective implementation of the Project. The process of staffing the PMU would be through a competitive recruitment process that will ensure all stakeholders of the Project, MCC, PCC, MIA and EPA can participate in the process. The key staff to be recruited for the PMU shall be in accordance with World Bank policies. The staff of the PMU will also be allowed to carry out independent supervision of the Project. In line with the Government’s policy, the PMU will report through the office of the Deputy Minister for Technical Services of the Ministry of Public Works. Assessment of the monitoring, reporting and judiciary systems of the Ministry also found some weaknesses that will need to be managed. Furthermore, the PPSD identified procurement risks for both, national and foreign firms, related to the fielding of personnel on the ground as indicated in the respective contracts. A challenge which is exacerbated by the limited qualified and experienced human resources in the country. 22. The major risks are weak contract management systems, document and archiving and public reporting. Over the past years’ projects experienced several claims arising from contract management issues and Government’s delay in payment to contractors. (a) Outbreak of an epidemic; (b) Delivery delays due to extreme Weather; (c) Deliberate change of personnel after award of contract; (d) Delayed Payment; and (e) Tax Obligation of Service Provided. The proposed mitigation measures under LURP will include: (a) For limited outbreak, follow heath protocols and modify implementation schedule and activities; (b) Ensure work schedule is updated to consider minor activities during heavy rain like desk studies, mobilization, prefabrication, etc.; (c) Ensure contract duration accommodates description due to extreme weather; (d) Effective contract management; (e) Ensure commitment forms are required and signed by bidders proposed staff; (f) Processing time for payment will be spelt out in PIM. External bureaucracy to be reduced to facilitate quicker processing and payment; and (g) Organize pre-bid/pre- contract to explanations for tax requirements. In view of the capacity of the staff on New Procurement Regulations for IPF projects, low procurement capacity on World Bank procurement procedures, challenges in interpreting the procurement regulations. World Bank will provide procurement trainings and procurement implementation support. 23. Filing and record keeping: The PIM will set out the detailed processes for maintaining and providing readily available access to project procurement records, in compliance with the FA. MPW will assign one person responsible for maintaining the records. The logbook of the contracts with unique numbering system shall be maintained and entered into STEP accordingly. 24. Procurement Manual: Procurement arrangements, roles and responsibilities, methods, and requirements for carrying out procurement shall be elaborated in detail in the Procurement Manual which will be a section of the PIM. The PIM shall be prepared by the Borrower and agreed with the World Bank prior to project effectiveness. Page 55 of 73 The World Bank Liberia Urban Resilience Project (P169718) 25. Procurement Plan: PMU on behalf of MPW will prepare a procurement plan that will be implemented using IPF under the Project, based on the findings and recommendations of the PPSD. The procurement plan is subject to public disclosure and will be updated on an annual basis or as needed by including contracts previously awarded and to be procured. The updates or modifications of the Procurement Plan shall be subject to the World Bank’s prior review and ‘no objection’. The World Bank shall arrange for the publication of the Procurement Plan and any updates on the World Bank’s external website directly from STEP, while MPW will do the publication on its project or the government’s Executive Mansion website. 26. Monitoring by STEP: Through mandatory use of STEP by the Borrower, the World Bank will be able to consolidate procurement/contract data for monitoring and tracking of all procurement transactions. Using STEP, comprehensive information of all prior and post review contracts for goods, works, technical services, and consultants’ services awarded under the whole Project will be available automatically and systematically on a real time basis whenever required, including, but not limited to: (a) the reference number as indicated in the Procurement Plan and a brief description of the contract; (b) the estimated cost; (c) the procurement method; (d) timelines of the bidding process, (e) the number of participated bidders; (f) names of rejected bidders and reasons for rejection; (g) the date of contract award; (h) the name of the awarded supplier, contractor, or consultant; (i) the final contract value; and (j) the contractual implementation period. 27. Publication of Procurement Information: The Project will follow the World Bank’s policies on publication of procurement information that are set forth in the World Bank’s Procurement Regulations. 28. Procurement Post Review: Contracts below the determined prior review thresholds shall be subject to post review according to procedures set forth in World Bank Procurement Regulations on an annual basis by the World Bank. The rate of post review is initially set at 20 percent. This rate may be adjusted periodically based on the performance of the Procuring Entity. Since the post review will be conducted entirely via the new online platform, the Project must ensure that all contracts and supporting documents are uploaded into STEP as and when activities are carried out. 29. Operational Costs: Operational costs financed by the Project would be incremental expenses, including office supplies, operation and maintenance of vehicles, maintenance of equipment, communication, rental expenses, utilities, consumables, transport and accommodation, per diem, supervision, and salaries of locally contracted support staff. Such services will be procured using the procurement procedures specified in the PIM, approved by the World Bank. 30. Training, Workshops, Study Tours, and Conferences: Training activities would comprise workshops and training, based on individual needs, as well as group requirements, on-the-job training, and hiring of consultants for developing training materials and conducting trainings. Selection of consultants for training services follows the requirements for selection of consultants above. All training and workshop activities (other than consulting services) would be carried out on the basis of approved 18-month Work Plans/Training Plans that would identify the general framework of training activities for the year, including: (a) the type of training or workshop; (b) the personnel to be trained; (c) the institutions which would conduct the training and reason for selection of this particular institution; (d) Page 56 of 73 The World Bank Liberia Urban Resilience Project (P169718) the justification for the training, focusing on how it would lead to effective performance and implementation of the Project; (e) the duration of the proposed training; and (f) the cost estimate of the training. Report by the trainee(s), including completion certificate/diploma upon completion of training, shall be provided to the PMU and will be kept as parts of the records, and will be shared with the World Bank if required. (v) Strategy and approach for implementation support 31. Considerable implementation support will be needed throughout the Project duration to ensure timely and effective Project delivery. The implementation support strategy is based on the Project’s risk profile and the technical specifications of the Project, considering the national context within which the Project is being implemented. The World Bank team will focus on priority activities to overcome key risks, such as institutional capacity for implementation, compliance with ESSs, fiduciary aspects and political and governance issues, including the coordination between a broad range of stakeholders. The implementation support plan also reflects the planned implementation schedule and lessons learned from similar projects. It will focus on strengthening the capacity of the PMU and implementing agencies throughout project execution through a regular dialogue with all project stakeholders. 32. Implementation support will consist of formal implementation support missions, technical missions as needed, and regular technical and project management meetings. This support will include regular reporting and monitoring of FM, procurement and ESSs compliance. Formal missions will be carried out at least twice a year, with ongoing and continued on-demand implementation support provided. The required support is expected to be high in the first three years of implementation. Missions and meetings will be carried out virtually and in-person, depending on the COVID-19 circumstances, which are closely monitored by the World Bank. 33. Several specialized technical experts are part of the World Bank’s team and will work with the Client to provide hands on assistance and build capacity as the Project is implemented. It is anticipated that this support will contribute to overcoming some of the risks related to capacity constraints on the client side. In addition to technical expertise, the World Bank’s task team will include procurement and financial management experts as well as environmental and social specialists who will work closely with the Client. The team includes staff and consultants at the World Bank’s headquarters, within the region as well as within Liberia. To complement the technical support, the team will continue to provide complimentary technical assistance through ongoing and potential future trust funds. 34. The World Bank will work closely with AFD to provide implementation support. As agreed to between AFD, the World Bank and the client, the PMU will implement both, AFD and World Bank activities. In this context the World Bank will coordinate closely with AFD to reduce administrative burdens on the client side. This will include joint missions as feasible, use of the same implementation arrangements, and use of the same PIM. AFD and the World Bank are committed to align the two investments under the umbrella framework of LURP and make the implementation of the interventions as efficient and consistent as possible. Table 1.3 summarizes the Project’s implementation support plan. Page 57 of 73 The World Bank Liberia Urban Resilience Project (P169718) Table 1.3: Implementation support plan Time Focus Skills needed Resources estimate Year 1 • Establishment of PMU Full Task Team: 66 staff weeks • Implementation of feasibility • Task Team Leader (TTL)/Co-TTL 3 missions (COVID-19 studies • Flood Risk management permitting) • Launch of works planned for year Specialist/Engineer 1 • Neighborhood Upgrading Specialist/Engineer • Urban Planner • Revenue Generation Specialist • SWM Specialist • GIS Specialist • Procurement Specialist • FM Specialist • Social Specialist • Environmental Specialist • Team Assistant • Finalization of E&S documents • TTL/Co-TTL • Initial community consultations • Social Specialist • Environmental Specialist • Flood Risk management Specialist • Neighborhood Upgrading Specialist • Fiduciary and E&S trainings • Procurement Specialist • FM Specialist • Social Specialist • Environmental Specialist Year 2- • Initiating design schemes for year • Full Task Team 70 staff weeks 3 3-4 works 6 missions (COVID-19 • Continued support to permitting) procurement and implementation of works and capacity building Mid- • Detailed assessment of project • Full Task Team 10 staff weeks Term implementation towards • M&E Specialist 1 mission (COVID-19 Review achievement of PDO permitting) Year 4- • Continued support to • Full Task Team 70 staff weeks 5 implementation of works and 6 missions (COVID-19 capacity building permitting) Project • ICR reporting • Full Task Team 5 staff weeks closure • Project withdrawal and closure • M&E Specialist 1 mission (COVID-19 permitting) Page 58 of 73 The World Bank Liberia Urban Resilience Project (P169718) ANNEX 2: Detailed Project Design 1. Possible Investments to be Financed under Component 1. Investments in selected areas of interest will be further defined based on the outcome of the design/feasibility study under this component. The table 2.1 below summarizes key technical findings from visits to these sites during the preparatory mission, analysis of existing reports on urban flooding and drainage in Monrovia and consultation with MPW. Table 2.1: Potential Areas of intervention and possible interventions Area Urban characteristics Physical Drainage Possible structural Implementation characteristics system interventions challenges Bushrod North of Freeport and Low-lying area No Small green corridor to Garbage in Location 1: Northern Bushrod Island Island – west of UN Drive, bordering Atlantic comprehensive be preserved and neighborhoods may New Kru dense urban footprint Ocean, mainly drainage improved; possibility of clog future drains/green Town with mainly low-rise rainfall system, only better outlet corridor, some concrete buildings and some small resettlement likely unpaved roads, small culverts, necessary to improve green corridor in the isolated drains; connectivity of green central part corridor Bushrod East of UN drive and Flat topography, No Green open spaces to Garbage in existing Island – north of free port, mainly dominated comprehensive be preserved and drains and culverts, Logan / urban footprint by rainfall but also drainage improved connectivity, encroachment of open King Peter concentrated along tidal levels in the system, only secondary drains from spaces, sea level rise Towns main roads with green northern part some isolated urbanized areas into and rainfall intensity to open spaces in street drains, (at green spaces, extra be taken into account between least) two outlet towards river for new interventions, outlets near fluvial flood risk during Duala Market high river floods and near Bong Railroad line Omega Mainly open and Relatively low- Natural system Certain percentage of Fast development of Location 2: Omega Market Area Market green space with lying inland for the most open space from the economic activities and some urbanization depression part with some entire area (preferably envisioned other along roads plus surrounded by small localized downstream near activities including ongoing rapid new elevated areas, man-made outlet) to be preserved housing without a market development purely rainfall- drains for retention, comprehensive at the westside since runoff dominated comprehensive drainage plan; future recently drainage system development of this required to prevent area and wider region future risk (paved roads, urbanization etc.) may lead to much more runoff through this area, also possibly higher rainfall due to climate change Central City center, dense Large Man-made Many small repairs Garbage in drainage Monrovia 3. Central Location Monrovia urban footprint with topographical drainage system required plus a few system, drainage /Central mixture of low and variations, with primary locations in which new system capacity to be Business high-rise concrete dominated by drain and drains could be checked against climate District – buildings, mainly rainfall, quick secondary considered, exit point change (rainfall Page 59 of 73 The World Bank Liberia Urban Resilience Project (P169718) Soniwein paved roads, shops, runoff drains near ocean could be intensity) Canal small markets made more natural to improved South- East of densely Relatively low- No Green corridors to be System capacity future Paynesville Location 4. South Eastern East populated urbanized lying inland comprehensive preserved/upgraded to proof (rainfall intensity Paynesvill area with some open depression drainage primary drainage increase due to climate e - Duport corridors surrounded by system, some corridors, widening of change); encroachment Rd elevated areas, culverts present culverts underneath of open spaces; purely rainfall- and green road crossings, runoff dominated corridors for removing other and draining primary blockages; towards southeast drainage, and limited secondary drainage 2. Location 1: Northern Bushrod Island. This area is under the jurisdiction of the Monrovia City Council and has the UN Drive as important transport link towards the north with the Duala Market as important economic hub. This area is densely urbanized for the most part. The topography of this area varies significantly with the urbanized areas around UN Drive/Duala Market at relatively high ground (> 4m+MSL) whereas the northeastern urbanized part and also the open and green spaces towards the east are close to 1 - 2m+MSL and just above maximum tide levels at present. The entire area is underserved regarding drainage infrastructure and frequent flooding occurs around the Duala market and in other urbanized parts mainly as a result of pluvial events. The northern and eastern part is also vulnerable to fluvial and coastal flooding. Envisioned urgent structural interventions in this area at this moment includes: • Road drainage along the northern part of UN Drive (currently non-existent), • Enhance connectivity of runoff from the urbanized areas to the low-lying and open spaces on the east part of island; • Preserve and connect the open greens areas as retention areas for (future) rainfall events; • Improve drainage connections towards the north (St Paul River mouth) and/or east (Stockton Creek). • Drain channels for effective runoff management within communities Page 60 of 73 The World Bank Liberia Urban Resilience Project (P169718) Figure 2.1: Impression of the northern part of Bushrod island based on available orthophoto imagery with Duala Market at the bottom left panel. 3. Location 2: Omega Market Area. This area is located under the jurisdiction of the PCC and the Omega Market is located at the former Paynesville Transmission Tower. This tower was demolished in 2011 and some urban development has taken place in this area but this area still has quite some open space. The Omega Market was opened in 2016 and further expansion of the market is considered. The Omega Market area, however, faces significant flood issues during pluvial rainfall events. Based on an initial analysis of the topography and modeling, the former Transition Tower area (4 - 6 m+MSL) surrounded by relatively higher ground (10-20 m+MSL) which likely result collection of rainwater in this relatively flat area before draining further towards the southeast into the Mesurado River. Potential bottlenecks for sufficient drainage are: • Insufficient secondary/tertiary infrastructure surrounding the built-up area including Omega Market, • Insufficient storage/retention area, • Insufficient conveyance capacity of the stream towards Mesurado River due to a limited and vegetated cross-section, road crossings, or a combination of the above. 4. Urgent envisioned interventions in this area is the implementation of a primary drainage infrastructure with a couple of collecting channels following the low-lying areas in the overall topography and connect these with retention areas at the downstream side of the Omega Ball near the existing outlet Page 61 of 73 The World Bank Liberia Urban Resilience Project (P169718) which drains towards the Mesurado River in the southeast. Also, this outlet is in need of rehabilitation and possibly widening to have sufficient capacity for the urban drainage. Figure 2.2: Impression of the project area in Painesville with Omega market. 5. Location 3. Central Monrovia – Soniwein Canal. Central Monrovia serves as the primary business area of the City with existing drainage structures constructed between 1972 -78. Inadequate urbanization and facility expansion as well as poor maintenance culture have heavily influenced the poor functional state of the current drainage facilities. The main drain for the Central Business District is the Soniwein drainage channel. This channel commences from the top of Benson Street, Mamba Point, running through and beneath some of the principal streets of the city and discharges at the back of the BTC barraks, Buzzy Quarter Community. Visual inspection shows that this drain is mainly intact from a structural point of view, but there are at least two places along the drain that do not connect. The drainage needs large maintenance by removal of sediments and garbage. In addition to this, several drains connecting to the Soniwein drain are in need of repair/rehabilitation. The drainage situation of Central Monrovia can be further optimized by making some new connections to this main drain to relief the flood issues in certain neighborhoods. Lasty, the exit point near the ocean could be improved to create a more natural environment and improve the outflow towards the ocean. Page 62 of 73 The World Bank Liberia Urban Resilience Project (P169718) Figure 2.3 Soniwein Drainage in Central Monrovia 6. Location 4. South Eastern Paynesville. Paynesville City is a fast developing metropolitan city with inadequate, and in some areas nonexistent drainage facility. It is one of the fastest developing parts of the country but lacks a clear or comprehensive layout. The Southeast of Paynesville City has seen regular flooding for some time due to pluvial activities and serves as a serious risk for communities’ low lying towards the Mesurado river. The Cowfield Community / Duport Rd area east of Tubman Boulevard is a specific area of interest. This area is known for its regular flooding during rainfall events. Analysis of the topography and modeling results show that the main road (Duport Rd) is located on a higher ride (4- 6m+MSL) with lower depressions at both sides. These features likely result in collection of rainwater before draining further towards the southeast into the Mesurado River. These low-lying corridors are occupied with assets and in use for agriculture. Potential bottlenecks for sufficient drainage are (a) cross- roads through the low-lying green corridors with no or not sufficient drainage facilities (e.g., culverts), and (b) insufficient conveyance capacity of the streams through these green corridors towards Mesurado River due to vegetated cross-sections, and other obstacles further downstream. Restoring these green corridors and create more space for water retention and drainage are envisioned activities in this area from a drainage perspective. Page 63 of 73 The World Bank Liberia Urban Resilience Project (P169718) Figure 2.4: Impression of the project area in Southeast of Paynesville near Duport Rd. With flood-prone areas around Duport Rd. (left) and existing drainage in this area. Page 64 of 73 The World Bank Liberia Urban Resilience Project (P169718) ANNEX 3: Economic Analysis 1. The economic analysis conducted assesses the benefits and costs of the outlined Project activities contributing to the PDO. The economic analysis uses a 6 percent discount rate to calculate the rate of return of the Project’s investments and assumes an appraisal period of 30 years for the assessed interventions. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis has been conducted to assess whether the selected investments would still be considered as economically viable if key Project assumptions are worse than planned. It is important to note that the following sections presents a preliminary economic analysis for the Project. Further detailing and prioritization of neighborhoods/interventions is expected during the detailed preparatory studies for implementation. 2. The economic analysis was delivered applying the concepts of the triple dividend of resilience approach. Under this approach, the first dividend of resilience relates to avoided losses from flooding due to the proposed intervention. The second dividend accounts for the economic potential unlocked from the proposed interventions, by enabling forward-looking planning and investment in productive assets. The third dividend refers to the value of co-benefits of the proposed interventions, which may include benefits such as improved health outcomes, increased incomes, or associated environmental benefits. For this economic analysis, only the first dividend was applied, but benefits related to the second and third dividend are discussed within a non-monetized framework. 3. The economic analysis focused on flood prevention investments which make up the majority of the Project costs. The proposed flood risk management interventions aim to support improvements in flooding and reduce infrastructure losses, overall leading to an enhanced flood resilience in Greater Monrovia and providing its citizens with improved living conditions. For the economic analysis of these measures, risk mitigation activities in the currently targeted neighborhoods (Bushrod Island, Central Business District, Omega Market, Duport Rd.) were selected. The main benefits were derived as (a) avoided losses from flooding and (b) increased economic activity in the area due to reduced flooding in the area. 4. Costs. The capital investment of the proposed flood risk management infrastructure is US$21.5 million. Feasibility and design studies, engineering supervision, environmental and social risk management instruments and E&S implementation costs are expected to add up to US$4 million. Recurrent operations and maintenance costs are estimated to be two percent of the value of the capital investment (US$0.43 million) per year, once the infrastructure is built. 5. Avoided asset losses. The benefits have been determined using a recent flood risk model that was conducted by Deltares, for the reference scenario (i.e. w/o interventions). The modeling approach included a range of different rainfall events (1yr, 2yr, 5yr, 10yr, 50yr), the spatial distribution of the assets (public and private buildings, infrastructure, etc.) and population and the vulnerability to flooding of these exposed elements on a high-resolution numerical grid (10x10meters) with a detailed topography. The risk has been quantified at this resolution and expressed in the annual average damage (AAD) and the annual affected population (AAP) due to pluvial flooding. These have been quantified for 2020 and for different future scenarios of climate change (Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] 4.5 and Page 65 of 73 The World Bank Liberia Urban Resilience Project (P169718) RCP 8.5) and shared socio-economic pathways (SSP3 and SSP5) in 205087. The AAD and AAP represent an expected (recurrent) average estimate of the damage and population flooded respectively in which all possible pluvial events with different return periods are integrated and weighted by their frequency of occurrence. 6. The interventions featured under the Project are expected to be designed to drain up to a 10- year rainfall event in 2055 in the targeted areas. This design event will include climate change effects (e.g., +10 percent increase in precipitation compared to current day conditions) and thus be designed for a somewhat higher return period directly after implementation in 2025. The AAD in the targeted areas for the reference scenario is around US$3 million. However, this is not completely eliminated by these interventions because of two reasons: (a) the interventions mainly focus on the primary drainage system with limited investments in the secondary / tertiary system (herein 50 percent effectiveness assumed of the interventions under the Project), and (b) events beyond the 10 year will still result in flooding albeit smaller than without interventions (initial effectiveness 80 percent and 65 percent in 2050 due to climate change effects). These effectiveness factors are partially based on the flood risk calculations for the baseline scenario by Deltares and have been applied together to estimate the avoided annual average damage/population each of the four areas due to the interventions. 7. These benefits are expected to increase in time mainly as a result of socio-economic growth. The risk assessment has shown that the annual average losses due to the flooding are expected to increase with a factor 5 – 25 in 2050 and the annual average population affected by floods with a factor 2 - 3. The strong increase in both risk parameters is dominated by the projected socio-economic growth resulting in much more exposed assets in the "do-nothing" scenario. The ranges are resulting from different future RCP and SSP scenarios used by Deltares in the flood risk assessment. Herein, the effects combination RCP4.5 and SSP3 have been adopted in the economic analysis which are considered a moderate scenario. The increase in avoided direct losses by floods is estimated at 500 percent and the increase in avoided flooded population at 225 percent in 2050 under this RCP/SSP combination based on the model calculations. A linear extrapolation has been applied to factor these into the economic cost-benefit analysis and account for future (increasing) benefits due to the interventions. 8. Increased economic activity and other indirect effects: Besides avoided asset damage, the proposed interventions in drainage infrastructure will also be beneficial in avoiding output losses, sometimes also referred to as indirect losses88. Output losses relate to the impact on the economic flow and accrue due to factors such as business interruptions and production losses due to flooding. In addition to avoided economic losses, by making a certain area resilient to flooding the risks in investing in this area is reduced, so beyond avoided losses, one can start to discuss an increase in economic activities, such as improvements to housing and infrastructure, new businesses emerging and wider investments, knowing that the risks to such investments are reduced. One way for estimating these losses is to use a fixed percentage of the direct losses. An evaluation of a series of flood events in different 87 RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 are two Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios which describe realistic future greenhouse gas concentration trajectories. Similarly, SSP3 and SSP5 are two Shared Socio-economic Pathways and project socioeconomic developments towards the future. These are developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to produce the assessment reports on climate change. 88 See e.g. Hallegatte, S., 2015. The Indirect Cost of Natural Disasters and an Economic Definition of Macroeconomic Resilience. World Bank, Policy Research Working Paper 7357. Page 66 of 73 The World Bank Liberia Urban Resilience Project (P169718) environments has shown that there is a large range in this percentage but that the indirect losses are generally lower than the direct losses89. From this study, the percentage was in the range of 10 – 150 percent depending on the specific flood situation (90 percent confidence interval). Herein, a percentage of 75 percent to calculate the avoided output losses has been applied to account for the avoided output losses and increased economic activity. 9. Overall, the results show that the drainage flood prevention measures are economically viable and will yield an NPV of US$49 million and an IRR of 17 percent. In addition, a two-year construction period has been assumed at the beginning of the Project period in which no benefits have been included. Table 3.1. Results of the Economic Analysis Component 1   NPV (US$ million) IRR Flood Prevention Measures 49 17% 10. Furthermore, the cost-benefit analysis applied does not consider some other socio-economic benefits from the various investments under Component 1. Benefits may not have been quantified - owing to the lack of data and complexity of modeling these effects, often along the second and third dividend of resilience – such as environmental benefits, related to biodiversity and air quality due to the protection of wetlands and flood plains, or various and reduction in energy costs due to energy efficient streetlighting. The interventions are furthermore expected to lead to reduced deaths and injuries associated to the lower frequency and intensity in the impact of floods and reduced disruptions caused by floods and other disasters. Health benefits are also likely to be a benefit stream from reduced water stagnation during the rainy season, resulting in reduced incidence of water-borne diseases. 11. Additionally, investments under Component 2 have been excluded from this economic analysis due to the nature of capacity building interventions that are not easily monetized. However, the multiple capacity building interventions under this component are expected to ensure sustainability of the interventions under Component 1. These interventions furthermore lead for example to better operation and management and maintenance of infrastructure and hence longevity, resilience focused planning laws and enforcement of plans which are expected to lead to e.g., reduced infrastructure and human losses due to future natural disasters and aim to support increased own source revenue collection which enable enhanced municipal service delivery and enhance economic activity. Hence, the results presented here can be seen as a conservative lower bound value of the full economic benefits of the LURP. The CBA in turn support the conclusion that investments are economically viable. 12. As such, the economic analysis for the interventions under Component 1 concludes that the interventions are economically viable. The typology of interventions is expected to lead to positive economic rates of return, beyond the discount rate of 6 percent assumed for these interventions, by: (i) avoidance of direct flood losses; (ii) avoidance of indirect flood losses (e.g. less business interruption etc.); and (iii) improving health and education outcomes. 89 World Bank, 2020. Feasibility study on methodology of quantification of indirect financial losses from natural disasters. Contract 7189620. Page 67 of 73 The World Bank Liberia Urban Resilience Project (P169718) 13. Sensitivity Analysis Results. A sensitivity analysis was done for each of the interventions and expected benefit streams to assess NPV and IRR changes through three potential scenarios, including (a) assuming a cost increase by 25 percent; (b) a benefit reduction by 25 percent; (c) a lag of benefits by 2 more years; and (d) a reduction in the lifespan of the infrastructure to 15 years and decreasing efficiency during lifespan to 50 percent after 15 years due to lack of maintenance. The results shows that the NPV and also the IRR decrease in these adverse scenarios. However, the effect is relatively small, and the efficiency of the investments remain high with an internal rate of return higher than 9 percent in all scenarios. Overall, it is concluded that the Project remains economically feasible even under these adverse scenarios. Table 3.2. Results of the Sensitivity Analysis Component 1   NPV (US$ Mil) IRR Baseline scenario 49 17% Sensitivity analysis   Costs increased by 25 percent 43 14% Benefits reduced by 25 percent 29 13% Benefits lag by two more years 42 14% Reduction in lifespan to 15 years and decreasing efficiency due to lack of O&M 5 9% Page 68 of 73 The World Bank Liberia Urban Resilience Project (P169718) ANNEX 4: Climate Change Assessment 1. This summary of the Flood Risk Profile Greater Monrovia is the culmination of two stakeholder consultation workshops and extensive data analysis and flood modelling work. The study supports the improved knowledge and understanding of flood risk in Greater Monrovia and contributes to the World Bank’s integrated urban development and resilience strategy in the region. The World Bank implemented the study with the support of Deltares, iLab Liberia and the stakeholders in Monrovia. 2. The results show that direct rainfall flooding (referred to as ‘pluvial’ flooding) is the most significant flood mechanism, resulting in the highest risk. The rainy season lasts from May to October, and peak annual rainstorms can occur throughout the rainy season, and rainstorms outside the rainy season are not uncommon. The average annual rainfall in Monrovia is 5,250 mm, with June and September averaging in excess of 1000 mm and July and August averaging in excess of 800 mm. The highest recorded daily rainfall for Monrovia is 435 mm, whilst rainstorms in excess of 100 mm in a day are not uncommon. This makes Monrovia one of the wettest cities in the world. By comparison Accra, Ghana (a similar coastal city in West Africa) receives around 800 mm a year with around 200 mm in the rainiest month. 3. Greater Monrovia also experiences regular flooding from both coastal flooding and flooding from the St Paul River to the north of the city. Though the most frequent coastal and river floods cover relatively smaller areas than the regular high-intensity rainstorm flooding. River flooding, referred to as ‘fluvial’ flooding, occurs during the middle of the monsoon in July and August, pushing water into the Stockton Creek from the St Paul River in the North, flooding low-lying areas along the creek and penetrating into the Mesurado estuary. The most severe fluvial floods affect larger areas of the city given the low-lying nature of the land around the Mesurado and Stockton Creek. Direct flooding from the Atlantic Ocean (overtopping) is very limited and flooding seems concentrated at New Kru Town and West Point, though erosion of the coastline seems a bigger risk to residents than flooding per se. Given climate change induced sea level rise and increased rainfall, all flood hazards are expected to become worse in the future. Fig 4.1. Flood hazard maps for Greater Monrovia for fluvial (left), coastal (middle) and pluvial (right) flooding. The scenario for all three hazard mechanisms is a 50yr event for the year 2050 under moderate climate change scenarios (Representative Climate Pathway 4.5 from IPCC). The blue colors indicate the depth of flooding Page 69 of 73 The World Bank Liberia Urban Resilience Project (P169718) ranging from 0.1 (light blue) and more than 2 meters (dark blue). 4. Exposure, the assets and people at risk of flooding, mainly relate to the unplanned reclamation and settlement of low-lying wetlands (mangroves) which are prone to flooding. This is exacerbated by the lack of government capacity to prepare and enforce land use plans that would mitigate the exposure. Lack of basic services and unregulated informal buildings make residents especially vulnerable to flooding with lack of sanitation facilities being an important issue. Furthermore, inadequate stormwater drainage is an issue. The low gradient between most of the land and the open water, means flood water drains slowly. Most communities do not have an interconnected drainage network, so isolated areas can remain under water until it either infiltrates or evaporates. But even in the dry season patches of permanent water remain throughout the slum settlement areas. Isolated inundation of the road network also occurs throughout the city disrupting road transportation. This is primarily due to inadequate road drainage. Fig 4.2. Combined risk of pluvial, fluvial and coastal flooding for Greater Monrovia for existing conditions (2020) and two future scenarios in 2050 (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). The colors indicate the expected annual loss (EAAL) per m2. The losses accounted for herein are the asset losses only due to flooding. The table in the lower-left corner provides some bulk figures of economic loss and also the yearly affected population. 5. Although the more extreme fluvial floods are of greatest depth, it is the pluvial flooding that creates the highest risk in terms of damage. This is due to the wider area that it covers and the frequency at which it occurs. Pluvial risk is more than 10 times higher than for the respective coastal and fluvial risk. Some 12 percent of the current population are affected by pluvial flooding depths of 10 cm or more, and 5 percent by flooding of 1 m or more. This rises for 2050 to between 13 and 16 percent of the population (>10cm) and 6 to 9 percent (>1m) depending on the population growth. Coastal risk does not increase Page 70 of 73 The World Bank Liberia Urban Resilience Project (P169718) significantly with more extreme events as there is no storm surge. Therefore, the relative damage does not increase much, but the number of residents affected becomes more significant as the inland tidal flooding is exacerbated by sea level rise in 2050. Some 1.5 percent of the current population is affected by fluvial flooding of 10 cm and 0.2 percent by flooding of 1 m or more. This rises for 2050 to about 3 percent of the population (>10cm) and 0.5 percent (>1m). While most of the frequent low magnitude fluvial flood events are confined to the Stockton creek area, a topographical factor comes into play with the inland low-lying areas becoming inundated for more extreme events. This flood risk is particularly evident around the communities of Logan Town, Bong Mines Bridge, Duala Mombo Town East and New Georgia Road. The more severe (less frequent) fluvial floods result in significantly more residents being affected, with higher levels of damage. The effect of climate change also doubles the impact of fluvial flooding. The impacted population rises in 2050 to about 3 percent of the population (>10cm) and 0.5 percent (>1m). 6. In monetary terms, for the current situation (2020) both coastal and fluvial risk are similar at US$1.1 million/year and US$1.4 million/year in losses respectively, whereas pluvial risk estimates are US$20.4 million/year. This accounts for nearly 90 percent of the combined risk per year. As the value of assets grow with general economic growth, the risk also grows in monetary terms. The coastal and fluvial losses increase from around 0.03 percent of GDP in 2020 to potentially 0.09 percent of GDP for 2050 whilst pluvial losses increase from around 0.63 percent of GDP in 2020 to potentially 1.16 percent of GDP for 2050 (depending on the socio-economic and climate change scenario). Although the monetary estimates included in this assessment are based on the best available data, the values are uncertain due to the lack of primary data on actual damage costs. The order of magnitude is probably a reasonable approximation and can be used to compare areas within Greater Monrovia and thus ascertain which areas are high/low risk. This helps inform what investment levels might be realistic for cost-efficient solutions. 7. The following key recommendations are made for further consideration by the Government of Liberia, assisted by International Financing Institutions: • Firstly, create a city-wide flood risk management committee, with representatives from relevant line ministries and city authorities, mandated by the President to coordinate and plan flood risk management measures. This would be the vehicle to discuss the potential measures. • Secondly, initiate a government, city and community wide awareness raising campaign as a basis for further consultations and to create the city-wide acceptance that action (both by the government and residents) is needed. • Thirdly, prioritize short term measures that address the highest risk mechanism (direct rainfall flooding) and those measures that can quickly reduce hazard, exposure and vulnerability for the most at-risk communities. • Fourthly, review and pre-select medium and long-term measures which may be necessary to address future hazard and risk, especially to address climate change induced increases in hazard. The planning of these measures should also take into account the future city with the short-term measures already implemented. Such medium and long-term measures may require extensive additional data collection and feasibility study which takes time to implement. Page 71 of 73 The World Bank Liberia Urban Resilience Project (P169718) 8. A short to medium term solution would be comprehensive spatial planning based on the flood risk maps produced by this study. In the short term this would mean changing land use and zoning regulations, creating zoning maps and spatial plans for city development, new building codes for resilient construction (considering likelihood of flood depth now and in the future). This would be with the intent to implement urban consolidation, that is increasing the housing density in the safer areas of Greater Monrovia. The creation of the zoning itself would be a short-term measure whilst the implementation of the densification would be longer term. Requiring measures to capture low risk land value, incentives to build higher density housing developments, taxes on unused/underused land in safer zones and ‘No build zones’ in higher risk areas. 9. Considering that flooding from direct rainfall creates the highest risk, short term measures that reduce flooding from the most frequent rainstorms is essential for Greater Monrovia. A possible solution to this is to create new, interconnected drainage systems that link traditional concrete drainage of roads with areas of existing wetlands and open water areas, creating sufficient temporary storage for stormwater. It should also be realized that even with such measures, many residents will remain in medium and high-risk areas, predominantly poor slum communities with few means to reduce their vulnerability. Reducing their vulnerability could be achieved in the short term by improving the living standard in the slum communities, improving the resilience of housing to withstand flooding and reduce post-flood waterborne diseases through the provision of improved sanitation. Additionally, another short-term measure which would allow residents to make informed decisions and reduce vulnerability would be a flood warning system with community flood response plans. Fig 4.3. Proposed conceptual idea for improved drainage from pluvial flooding in the Northern part of Bushrod Island. The existing 5yr rainfall situation in Logan Town is shown at the left panel. Preserving the existing open green spaces and making effective linkages between these areas and also more outlets towards the north and east could be created to improve the drainage of pluvial flood water in this and other neighborhoods. 10. Finally, the measures are strongly co-dependent with some measures only working effectively if key conditions are in place (such as city zoning). This reflects the interwoven nature of city living and the choices residents make for housing, such as relative distance from schools, services, and work. Page 72 of 73 The World Bank Liberia Urban Resilience Project (P169718) Therefore, the measures need to be properly integrated within a supporting environment of coordinated ministries and agencies. Hence the inclusion of the multi-agency, city-wide flood risk management committee to coordinate and integrate the measures. Page 73 of 73