gEr5>rt< ~~r'w F' ' Ib'lhY - j mar 15 percent; shopping and services, 10 percent; local transportation, 6 percent; others, L percent. A ma40r attrctionn J amniacai9 s in-bond shopping, where- by tourists buy imported luxury consumer goods without indirect taxes. Ex- penditure on purchases is primaril- for these goods though local 11handic roafts are also attractive to tourists. A more flexible in-bond shopping system is being studied, since at present tourists only receive their purchases as they leave Jamaica. A reimbursement system compensates tourists for the cost of the item purchased when delivery arrangements break down at the point of exit from Jamaica. 7. Most information on the characteristics of tourists to Jamaica relates to long-stay tourists visiting the North Coast resort areas. Over 80 percent of tourists on the North Coast are housed under multiple occu- pancy conditions, i.e., 1.8 persons per room is considered to be an appro- priate average. Kingston, the other destination for tourists, is not prop- erly a resort area, and although one-third of air travelers arrive in Kingston only about one in four actually stay in Kingston. The average length of stay in Kingston is much lower than that of the North Coast area. Possibly as many as 40 percent of visitors to Kingston are not tourists but business travelers. A characteristic of a business travel area which King- ston shares, is lack of a seasonal pattern, as well as a room occupancy rate of about one person per room i.e., lower than in the North Coast resort areas. 8. Monthly arrivals of tourists to Jamaica indicate a definite sea- sonal pattern (Chart 1). Some 40 percent of long-stay and short-stay visi- tors arrive in the first four months of the year with March always the peak month. However, an almost equally high peak month is August. The trough periods are September and October and to a lesser degree, Miay and June. Both the chart and quarterly data on Table 4; show that Jamaica's tronical climate prevents the island having the serious problems that beset competi- tors with clearly defined seasons However, only by signifirant nromntion from 1967 onwards and by incentive summer tariffs and general policies to indure tourism outsfide the winter seasnn, has Jamnira mannaedi to deveulon a second season. Even now the rate of growth in arrivals of winter tourists is slightly higher t-han t-hat of su.mmer tourists. The latter are believed to belong to a lower income group, probably averaging between US$8,000 and US$15,000 per annim, whose demnnd for touri8m iS likely to be more nrire elastic than demand in winter for luxury tourism. Average length of stay tends t-n he lightluy sl-horter than that- of winter tonirirst-s .Jama-irans respon- sible for organizing tourism also believe that the summer tourist is more mobile than the wintertourist and has more interest in eloring the Island and in acquainting himself with everyday Jamaican life. 9. An analysis of the age structure of Jamaica's tourists shows that 65 perce in. -he more exclusive4 - t -w.4 no an re 03r 35 and a evenl distributed among the 36-45, 46-55 and over 55 age groups. Outside the wi.Lntr L ea L, hwever, the average age oLL tourists is Lower siLnce Cab aboLuut 50. percent are under 35 years old. The 20-35 age group is the largest single dag grLUUp dL dL± t±irLte Lii tU-da. IIUIIInULb UL LUU tour Lbt. 'Lt *LnIILUUUes yUUoIg married couples, often without children, to whom the outdoor elements in a -4- Caribbean holiday are likely to appeal most. However, tne 20-35 year age group reaches its peak in the third quarter of the year at the time of cheaper prices. Tne rapid growth of tourists in the under zu age group, particularly in the winter season suggest that more couples are traveling with children. 10. Substitutes for resort tourism in the North American winter, especially that offered by Jamaica, are more difficult to find than in the summer. Alternative resort areas with the same or lower air fares are likely to compete strongly with Jamaica's resorts in summer. The enclave nature of much of Jamaica's winter tourism is also likely to ensure demand that might otherwise be affected by a hostile image of the island, projected as a result of political or social unrest. The more mobile summer tourist is more likely to be affected by such non-economic factors. The implication is, therefore, that demand for resort tourism to Jamaica in winter is likely to be more stable than summer tourism. II. THE ECONOMIC IMPORTANCE OF TOURISM TO JAMAICA 11. As a foreign exchange earner, tourism is second only to bauxite and alumina and is the largest single item among earnings from non-factor services. It provides the equivalent of 21 percent of all export earnings, compared to 19 percent five years before. This is all the more significant since Jamaica's traditional export products, sugar and bananas, have shown a declining trend over the past years. No other sector except mining seems likely in the foreseeable future to attain the foreign exchange earning capacity of tourism. Furthermore, the assets of the tourism sector are in- exhaustible. 12. Compared with other sectors of the Jamaican economy, tourism is of major importance for the generation of employment and income. Based on the assumption that the employee/room ratio is between 1.7:1 and 1.9:1, some 9,000 persons are employed directly in hotels. Direct employment per room is, however, falling: the employee/room ratio in new hotels is about 1.2:1. Employment drops by about one-third outside the winter season for the sector as a whole, although the larger North Coast hotels and most Kingston hotels maintain a year-round constant employment level. Seasonality thus affects employment comparatively mildly. Hotel employees are organized in trade unions and minimum wages for all categories of employees have legal force. Weekly wages range at present from J$11 to J$15 for higher levels and from J$7.20 to J$9 for lower levels excluding other emoluments, particularly tips. These wages are very attractive to agricultural workers and most other un- skilled and semi-skilled workers. Very few non-Jamaicans work in hotels, nnd theRe are mostlv at hiph technical and managerial levels. Fore1iners require work permits (see para. 15 of Volume I). 13. Indirect employment in the services and production sectors, result- ing from tourism, is unlikely to be as high as it might be in an economy which is rather more closed than the Jamaican. Tourists in Jamaica are also - 5 - more confined to hotels than is the case in other countries and thus use ancillary services to a limited extent only. These are mainly transport, distribution of locally produced and in-bond goods, and entertainment. The indirect employment effects of tourism have not been quantified satisfactor- ily, either in Jamaica or elsewhere. Therefore, no firm estimate can be made of the total work force employed directly and indirectly by the tourist sector, or of the capital costs involved. Quantification is made difficult since tourism not only creates new jobs, but also raises income in existing ones and frequently causes a change from unemployment to under-employment because of increased demand for goods and services by tourists and by those employed in the tourist sector. 14. Tourism generates investment in hotels and thus gives a stimulus to construction. The Jamaican construction industry is generally locally owned and managed. I-ost construction materials are produced locally, al- though some, in particular reinforcing steel, in insufficient quantities to supply the entire market. The industry requires relatively little fixed investment. Imports of the industry are therefore low in relation to locally created value-added. There are not data on the proportion of construction that can be attributed to the hotel sector, but it seems to have been be- tween 5-10 percent in 1969. This represents employment of about 2,000-4,000 people not all of whom, however, would be unemployed in the absence of hotel construction. 15. Jamaican producers of manufactures and agricultural goods benefitted to a differing degree from the increase in Durchases by hotels. Items which are now obtained exclusively locally are napkins, soaps, and toilet tissues. Local purchases sf china and glassware have expanded vignroiisly and now account for more than half of total expenditure on these items. Local pur- chases of linqur, wines, bhprsA cigars and cigaretts havep lsqn risen morp rapidly than imports. In contrast, imports of ground provisions, vegetables, meats, poultry, etc., increased much mnre than incal niipurhns nf these items; the latter still amount to about 44 percent of the total only. In 1969, some J$1.5 million were spent by hotels on local farm Droduce, mainly milk, citrus juice, coffee, fruits and vegetables. Expectations for the future are that hotels will nurchase locally a larger range of goods such as high quality beef, butter and cheese. Constraints, however, exist in agricultural produc- tion and even more so in distribultion. The Aarictiltutral Marketinri Corrnration has so far not been successful in organizing sales to hotels on a regular basis and at fixed nrirces Packing and grading farilitiea fnr fresh prodiier destined for export are only just being introduced. Since Jamaica has a range of climates which allows the cultivation of almost any veutat-hla, pros- pects for import substitution are good, once distribution systems have been 16~ Tvn, .o subst-it,,ut4o has its- coats. The cost, of self-sufficiency in poultry and pork was increased imports of feedstuff. Local producers of livestock are stated to be charginrg the same prices for locally produced beef as for imported beef which is generally considered to be of higher q1 4lt-, y -.Wever, while the- prospe of 4prsbtui are not as -ye clear, the authorities are investigating areas in which it might successfully -6- be undertaken. The mission, however, did feel that the real net costs of import substitution were perhaps not being sufficiently investigated by any one institution in Jamaica. 17. The import content of tourism is particularly high for promotion expenditure: about 80 percent of these are made to firms abroad, mainly in the U.S.A. Some of the industries that serve the tourism sector, such as pub- lic utilities, are foreign-owned which reduces the income generated by tour- ism which remains within the country. The hotel sector itself shows a high degree of foreign ownership. The distribution of hotel ownership is now estimated to be 53 percent local, 39 percent foreign, and 8 percent joint; on a room or capital-invested basis the foreign share is likely to be at least 50 percent. Some 40 percent of investment in resort cottages is by overseas operators. One of the explicit objectives of the Jamaica Develop- ment Bank is to increase the financial participation of Jamaicans in their tourist industry. 18. Tax revenues are cited as another economic benefit from the tourist industry. A 3 percent hotel room tax was established in 1969, which should roughly amount to 1.5-2 percent of hotel turnover. A departure tax of J$2 has been in existence for some time and accounts for about 0.7 percent of total tourist expenditure. In Decenber 1969 a tax was introduced for passen- gers from cruise ships. In addition, tourists pay indirect taxes on consu- mer items they purchase, and the receipts from goods and services rendered to them are eventually subject to income tax. While room taxes are accepted by tourists almost everywhere as normal and consumer taxes generally go un- noticed, the cruise tax appears to have been a factor in reducing cruise business. On the other hand, most of the new hotels and many of the older ones qualify for exemptions from income tax and customs duties under the Hotel Incentive Act. The amount of income tax revenues foregone has as yet not been established but it might be as high as 25 percent of gross profits, or about 4.5 percent of tourist expenditure. 19. Ouestions are therefore being raised in Jamaica about the extent to which earnings from tourism actually remain within the country. A 1958 survey by the University of the West Indies suggested that obligations to the rest of the world 1/ amounted to some 40 cents of every tourist dollar. This aDnears confirmed by information gathered by the mission- according to which a maximum of two-thirds of each tourist dollar is retained in Jamaica. A recent survey of bank denosits in Jamaica undertaken by the Bank of JTmairc suggests that the amount retained in Jamaica is considerably smaller than hnd nrevinn01v hPPn Petimntpd- HowevPr- thiR suirvePv i na VPt inonmnlPtP and has not, so far, included bank accounts held abroad with official approv- al. International experienre suggests that net fnreign exchange benefits from tourism are generally higher than in most other export industries with a high growth potential. In the main inonme generating unit in the tourist sector, i.e., in hotels, payments for imported goods and services seldom l/ Expenditures on salaries, purchases of goods, repairs, transport aDgeenc- faas anr. 4interect and profjlt vri4tta.ce. exceed 50 percent of total revenue. Since the bulk of wage payments are to local labor and at least some consumption items are always spent locally, a substantial proportion of revenues does always remain in the tourist destin- ation country. 20. In Jamaica. the contribution of tourism and, in particular, of the tax incentives for tourism to national income has so far not been clearly established. Careful calculations need to be made about the effect of tax revenues foregone, especially when profits accrue to foreigners. The two main issues are what proportion of foreign investment would have occurred without the inducement of incentives, and what loss of national income would have resulted from the absence of incentives. i.e.. to what extent would have been the income of factors induced to the hotel industry lower elsewhere in the economy. The introduction of the Hotel Incentive Act coinfided with shortages of hotel accommodation and attractive profit rates which were en- hanced by devaluation when hotels left their USJ dollars rates eenerally un- changed. 21. Suggestions that substantial parts of earnings from tourism do not remain wijthin Tnmaia Aar accnmnpniedA hby the charge that the financial and social benefits of tourism are not open to Jamaicans. The degree of foreign otwnership in the hotel sector is high, and Jam aican.s hwave irncreasi4ngly lost or are losing control of considerable portions of coastal lands. The extent toowhch beach n.dS h1ave be en1 bought up at cheap prices eand 0 are Deing hed A for speculative purposes by foreigners have caused widespread concern and have beer, the subDjectI of public statemL.ents, U. The costJ of avrerage agricul= tural land varies from about J$600-1,000 per acre; in the developing resort area o-… ... T6qA 000C_ are ofNgi, the cost per acre -is abu- $0,0 o sea frontage- be-ween O~ II. ~5I.L.L J L I LAJ LezL. i aL L CL L JU U L .J-9 L J,%JVV L.UJ.L1 LiL%A L Lr' O LWOO the road and the sea, and the price of this has increased by 25 percent in 1976 a'Lone. TLIhe inflated priLce structure ir thle mIatin tourist resort areas has an adverse effect on land prices for non-tourist purposes and on the cost o liv'ing generally for resident Jamaicans. 22.. ThZL Lie Jamaican UiLvorce Lromu LourLsmL, LILL-th foUL, iL a di.VVoLr.C Ao.L,LU investment in the tourist sector, and from the use of its assets. The social implications of tourism, are considered to be in many instances d'sadvanta- geous. The marked differences in the living standards of the tourists and of tne majority of Jamaicans causes social tensions, which are accentuated by the high ratio of tourist population to Jamaican resident population in the peak seasons. 23. The disadvantages of tourism are to a certain extent characteristic of those export sectors which, because of their growth prospects, attract foreign investment on a large scale. Tourism should also in future have greater capacity for earning foreign exchange than most sectors of the Jamaican economy. The demands of tourism have stimulated ancillary services, construction and some branches of manufacturing and of agriculture. The expansion of water supply, highways and public utilities, that the industry requires, also contributes to improving living standards in both the main - 8 - resorts and the outlying areas. The social tensions provoked by tourism can be reduced by effective government policies to "Jamaicanize" this sector and to explain more explicitly to Jamaicans the economic benefits that the inland society derives from it. III. THE ORGANIZATION AND ADMINISTRATION OF TOURISM 24. Tourism in Jamaica has received considerable official attention and time. The main institution in the tourism sector is the Jamaica Tourist Board, a statutory body responsible to the Ministry of Trade and Industry. Other bodies involved in tourism organization, administration, planning, and financing are the Urban Development Corporation! the Jamaica Development Bank, the Beach Control Authority and the Ministries of Trade and Industry and of Finance and Planning themselves to which these bodies are responsible. Considerable legislation has also been established for the tourism sector. The calibre of nublic sector administration of tourism is high. The only major weakness is some degree of lack of coordination between the Jamaica Tourist Board and the Urban Development Corporation, both of whom are resnon- sible for the development of tourism projects. The Jamaica Hotel and Tourist Associntion and the Jam2rnin Assc: iation nf Vi11as and Apartments arp the main private organizations active in tourism. Public Sector 25. The Jamaica Tourist Board (JTB) is a statutory corporation esta- blished by Law 61 of 1"-- -_ -- - ihe Ministri of Trade and Industry and the Cabinet. The extensive provisions of this Law, the size of the Tourist Board budget- (T,able 12) and, th.e oaato of thi bod,4 y lA- (Chart 4) indicate its importance. The functions of the Jamaica Tourist Board are: i. 0 to evelop all aspects of the tourist inudust-ry of amaaica a..d to * L U U L L..L L. JL L11~ LLJ L. I..LLL~L~ . 'i -L LULU promote its efficiency; ii. to adopt all appropriate measures to advertise and publicize Jamaica as a tour ist resort thL rL0u ut th11e year; iii. to promote and secure such shilpping aUn airliine LkiC±L.L. S as would tend to increase tourist traffic to Jamaica; iv. to secure the most favorable entry regulations for tourists; v. to encourage the development of such amenities in Jamaica as may be calculated to enhance the attractiveness of Jamaica to tourists; vi. to undertake such research and operations as may appear necessary to improve the basis of the industry and to control and eliminate any undesirable factors that may affect it. - 9- The Board 4 s also authorized: i. Ito co.tlrol ar.d ll..mi.ate undesi'abe factors th,at m.ay affect th.e the tourist industry in Jamaica; ii. to establish categories for hotels and rules about the form and mane 'n_ . . 4 A1 1 4ApplicAtion Fr h A :A _. _1-w1 11 1U~IL~L .313WL.LL.3 ApJ. A.a 3.10 lJ I3t Ut.L .LL WA.J LIjL~..L OLLC1±.L. be made; iii. to ensure the keeping of records of the number of tourists in Jamaica during any period and of the countries to which they belong. The Board's main expenditure is for promotion rather than direct investment in iacilities. Sources of ilunancing are mainly budget allocations, payment which the Board may retain for investment and revenues or property which may become payable to or vested in the Board in repsect to any matter inci- dental to their powers and duties. 26. The Jamaica Tourist Board is a dynamic and efficient organization, with sufficient funds to contract out promotion and pubiic relations' activ- ities to specialized U.S. firms. The staff and leadership of the organiza- tion is both imaginative and dedicated; it appears to enjoy good relations with the private sector and carries out its functions competently. While the collection and collation of statistical data is facilitated by Jamaica being an island and by its ports of entry being both known and easily defin- able, Jamaica does receive a sufficiently large flow of tourists to make the collection of data burdensome. Special surveys are carried out for specific data needs, sometimes by other government agencies. Tourist expenditures are presently being recalculated through a sample survey carried out by the Central Planning Unit. The last survey was conducted in 1962 and the results of the one for the year 1970 should be available in 1971. 27. Tourism planners in 1968 estimated that Jamaica had considerable under-capacity in tourism accommodation. These planners are now facing a problem of possible over-capacity. The Jamaica Tourist Board is aware of this situation and its causes as well as of the need to offer lower accommo- dation and transport tariffs, the need to attract greater tourist numbers outside the winter season, and group convention business in order to try to raise the trough periods outside the two peak tourist seasons. They are also aware of the unfavorable attitude of much of the Jamaican public to tourists. All these questions are being dealt with in different ways. 28. The North American market is being handled by the Sales Organiza- tion with great vigor. To expand the tourist supplier market, a different image is being projected of Jamaica, attempting to promote "an image of a US$50 a day resort charging US$10 a day prices." The policy of the Board - 10 - a 8Lto uesigniate cerLaIL Ltegos.LLL LI.Lgh densty tour st areL for predufil- nantly low-cost accommodation and to be equally assiduous in preserving other areas as exclusive hligh-income tourist areas. At present, witl proDabDly over-supply of accommodation in the short-term, the JTB has attempted to establish strict criteria for appraisal of projects and for granting incen- tives provided by the Hotel Incentive Act, in order to ensure that only those that are economically as well as financiaily viabie will be approved. 29. in an attempt to reconcile Jamaicans to the tourist industry, a campaign is being carried out to inform the population about the economic advantages of tourism to the island. The Board is also encouraging hotel owners and managers to attract Jamaicans to use their facilities. Public issues of hotel shares are increasing in an attempt to interest Jamaican capital in the tourist industry. The Jamaica Tourist Board is aware of the need for man-made entertainments, the promotion of which comprises the main work of its Special Projects Division; of the need for the tourist to parti- cipate more in Jamaican life, and for new areas of activities, such as the interior of Jamaica which has seldom been explored by winter tourists in the past, and which is of interest to summer tourists. 30. The Jamaica Tourist Board is represented in all other public and private organizations dealing with tourist matters. It has promoted handi- crafts with Italian technical assistance and has fostered improvement in the quality of local entertainment groups. A Hotel Training School has been established under its auspices, and the Board participates in the administra- tion of that School. It also participates in a review of the somewhat un- satisfactory current system of ground transport. Due to its expertise and its wide range of activities, the Board has considerable prestige within government. However, it can only advise on investments in tourist facili- ties, as one of several institutions in project appraisal and approval. No one agency in government provides effective control over increases in accom- modation by relating these to market prospects. This should obviously be a function of the Tourist Board. Responsibility for establishing investment plans and criteria for the sector as a whole, should therefore be given to this institution. 31. The Urban Development Corporation (UDC) is a statutory body respon- sible to the Mlinistry of Finance. Its objectives are to establish areas for urban development within Jamaica and to control that development within cer- tain patterns. In constrast to the Jamaica Tourist Board, the UDC carries out investment of its own and is authorized to borrow at long term. The biggest Urban Development proiects on the Island that involve tourism either as an economic base or as an integral part are in Negril, Ocho Rios, Hell- shire Hills and the Kingston Waterfront for which UDC has formed senarate development corporations in conjunction with local business interests and ADELATErC Tn nll cnases nlnnR for 20 vynrs ahead won1ld lnrlitide qsth.Qtantl1 additions to hotel capacity and in some cases would open up completely new areas to both tourism and urban development. Th.ere seems to be a certain lack of communication between the Jamaica Tourist Board and the Urban Devel- opment Corporation an.deven between the different _Mnistries towhich each reports. As a result, there is no effective coordination of investment plans between the two agencies. - 11 - 32. The Jamaica Development Bank (JDB), which was established in 1969 anu 1S reSipUll:ISLU.Le LU Lfl: r.LN SLL y U. r LL;LLLt: dI U rK L1LL.LLL;11 , JbLLb LU LLLV CM J$12 million in tourism projects out of a total portfolio of J$48 million by 1975. The Bank intends to assist in the iLLarLLc 'I o1f terterprss tilat cater to the tourist industry generally; this will include not only hotels and other accommodations but also restaurants, night clubs, mlaritLas, boat build- ing and other ancillary services. By mid-1970, half a million Jamaican dollars had been lent to small hotels and to ancillary tourist activities. Certain priorities and operational guidelines have been established. First priority projects are those intended almost exclusively for tourists, such as hotels, guest houses, villas and cottages available for rental to tour- ists for most of the year, and other enterprises such as boating raciiities that operate in close conjunction with hotels. Second priority projects are those that are not operated in close conjunction witn hotels but which pro- vide partial service for tourists, such as restaurants and night clubs. 33. The type of assistance provided by the Bank takes various forms: i. direct loans for tourist enterprises where the repayment period may reach 10 years (International experience indicates that these loans may be too short term for tourist enterprises); ii. participation in equity to the extent that it would be beneficial to the client in reducing his debt service, especially where the principal promoters are from overseas and there is need to ensure that a significant share in the equity is held by Jamaicans; iii. underwriting of a public issue depending on the importance of the project to the national economy, as in the case of the Pegasus Hotel; iv. guarantee of loans. All these various forms of assistance will be arranged only if the Bank is satisfied with the viability of the project. In February 1971, the Inter- American Development Bank approved a US$6 million loan to the JDB, one- third of which is earmarked for small- and medium-sized tourism ventures. 34. The Beach Control Authority was established in 1965 for the purpose of "controlling and regulating the use of the floor of the sea and of the foreshore and beaches of this Island in the interest of the public and of persons who have acquired rights therein" (Law No. 63 of 1965). The crucial part of the Law is contained in an amendment of December 1965 which states the following: - 12 - "WhIen a..y beach Inas b-een used4 I-- the pbi raycaso h VV [L~L dL ~ LI1 Lta LJ) L U ~LL Y L.IIC- jJUUJ.J.%.. 01. LLLiY %_LL.Z 01.  LLt: the Public for fishing or for purposes incident to fishing or oLi r Li1LL Ub Lti. . o reeatinLU, oLL aLnLy LrCoUd tLLaL L or passway pasbs11g over any land adjoining or adjacent to such beach has been used by the public or an-y class o' the public as a meals of access LO such beach, without interruption for the full period of 20 years, the public snall , subject to the provisos hereinafter contained, have the absolute and indefeasible right to use beach, land, road, tract or passway as aforesaid unless it shaii appear tnat tne same was enjoyed by some consent or agreement expressively made or given for that purpose by deed or writing." 35. The Beach Control Authority is thus mainly responsible for pro- tecting the right-of-way of fishermen and for retaining beaches for public use, for physical preservation of beaches, and tor reclamation of land. Concern about the acquisition of coastal land by private speculators and even by developers who have obtained exclusive rights to these beaches, has reached a point where it has become the subject of public statements. Ja- maica's coastal perimeter is some 425 miles long of which about 200 miles are usable as beaches in their present state. Of the remaining coastline about half could be reclaimed while the other half is inaccessible, has no beach or the water is too hazardous for bathing or boating. While no definite estimates exist as to the amount of land in hands of Jamaicans and those in the hands of foreigners, a survey of 50 miles of beach on the North Coast, suggests that some 31 miles of these beaches are foreign owned and some 19 miles are Jamaican owned. The problem is not entirely one of for- eign or Jamaican ownership, since much of the land has been bought up for speculative purposes and is held without being developed in the hope of a capital gain in the case of resale. The problem to the Jamaican fishermen is growing lack of access to the sea. To the Jamaican public it is the lack of availability of beaches for recreational use, since the hotels or private interests have acquired exclusive right to considerable stretches of the Jamaican coast. Physical preservation of beaches implies the construction of groynes to protect the beaches from erosion, as also physical protection from people attempting to use ill-advisedly salt sand for construction purposes. 36. The Beach Control Authority has a small budget but a tenacious staff which is not afraid to challenge any project presented by developers or investors which would run counter to the interests of the public. So far, the Authority has actually acquired 59 fishing beaches and 70 bathing beaches and some 54 fishing and 50 bathing beaches are in process of acqui- sition in every parish in the Island. The Authority issues licenses for the use of bearhinh for whiih it rharges mndetp fees Snme 655 lirenses are currently in operation. The Beach Control Authority has the right to expro- priae lad shuld egoiatins beak o.. but, in. general, the hve an aged to induce land owners to lease beaches at very low rentals when these are needed for public purposes. - 13 - Private Sector 37. The Jamaican private sector in tourism is well organized and con- sists of several institutions. Principal amongst these is the Jamaica Hotel and Tourist Association (JHTA) which represents hotels and tourist enterprises as well as transportation agencies, suppliers to the tourist sector and other ancillary services. The broad aims and objectives of the JHfTA are set out in its constitution and are as follows: (a) to promote cooperation amongst hotels and other bodies interested in the Tourist Industry and afford a means of exchange of information on all matters affecting the Hotel and Tourist Industries of Jamaica; (b) to promote fair and harmonious labor relations between members and their employees and to assist them in labor disputes; (c) to establish and enforce a code of ethics to be followed in all business dealingn between hotels in Jamairca their patrons and other bodies interested in the travel and/or Tourist Industries! (d) tn fnoter bnt-h fnreign and lnrnl goodwill towards the Hotel and Tourist Industries of Jamaica; (e) to assist in promoting business for its members and par- ticularl- in developinrg every aspect of t'he Touris4- Industry; (f) to promote legislation calculated to benefit, improve and expanl. thL L'e Hotel and Tourist Ir,dustries oUf JwJLaica; (g) to- settle the policy to be followed anr.ually b..y Lues0 of the Hotel Trade in respect of the recognition of wholesalers, the pa-ym.ent of commss..J. 4L on.s andl allowance of discounts and refund of deposits; (h) generally to do such other things as may appear to be IncI.LUCLLal ULr conducive to thL e attaLLi.-i.er.t oUf the UabLovUe objects or any of them. 38. The JHTA publishes an annual Jamaica Hotel Directory and conducts annual surveys of hotel expenditures and numbers employed in notels. hne JHTA has regular monthly meetings with representatives of the Jamaica Tourist Board to discuss the industry generally and current matters of mutual interest. A Marketing Committee comprising JHTA and JTB personnel has been established to consider ways and means in which effective action may be taken to stimulate tourist traffic to the Island in view of the ad- ditional rooms now coming into being. - 14 - 39. The Jamaican Association of Villas and Apartments (JAVA) was formed in 1967. At the end of 1969 owners of some 250 cottages. with the equivalent of 1,500 beds, were members of JAVA, representing 75 percent nf th' tntnl rnttagceps in jqma,irn_ The nhipotiupve nf JAVA are tor noanize the administration and promotion of cottages for tourist accommodation. The Association waS formed to prnmnte tho cottages as agroup, sinc cost of individual brochures is heavy and individual owners lack knowledge of the travel .mnrket The Association stated in mid-1970 that it had been unaf- fected by any slowdown in the growth of tourist traffic to Jamaica. In fact, the gro.-irng numbers of Cotta.ges; comhng --- thne ma-ket are considered tlo be a factor in the drop in hotel occupancy rates. The Association stated that the houses cater mainly to families and therefore tap a -w. -n that tourists in cottages utilize the hotels for meals and entertainment. Certainly, the existence of tblese cottages anA apartr..ents -a a means of diversifying Jamaica's supply structure and, therefore, broadening market -3 ern (1S__An. . _k Am A co-itrc Al gro p of _o e -- _ - .._ -.L1 1 _ _A_A.._ UtZAL~LIU . JUII: LL)IIIII.)L iJCL tJUUO UJL tU LL O C U V CVLL OULL0UJC IUL gt UUP travellers. 40. Cottage rentals average about US$500 per week in winter and the average Lengthi of stay is jUst unUer LWo weeks. JU lumdner rates are ab out half. The cottages tend to have three rooms and five beds. Most visitors stay on the North Coast oL the Is'lanud. ITh aver age agercy cululluLssion on a booking including air fare is $135 and the average cost to the visitor is $5-$6 per person per day. r1owe-ver, many of the hotels nave individual cottages, in addition to their main high-rise structure or their normal hotel rooms, for wnich the hotel facilities are available. Investment in a cottage by an individual is not a commercial proposition but the rental of that cottage is used as a means of orrsetting costs during periods when its owner is not using it. Promotion 41. Promotion expenditures comprise the bulk of the Jamaica Tourist Board budget, which is substantial by comparative standards (see Table 12). Promotion expenditures amount to about 3.5 percent of total tourist expen- ditures. An analysis of the annual increases in the budget and the annual increases in long-stay visitor arrivals does suggest that there is some correlation between the two, with a time lag of one year in promotion ex- penditures and the resulting long-stay visitor arrivals. Promotion is handled on behalf of the JTB by established U.S. firms that deal with both advertising and public relations in North America. Jamaican advertising has won several awards for its quality. The advertising is well directed and reflects accurate analytical knowledge of the U.S. market. 42. Other agencies and organizations also undertake promotion of Jamaica. The Jamaica Hotel and Tourist Association (JHTA) is estimated to spend in total some 30 percent of Tourist Board expenditures on promotion. Joint promotional campaigns in the U.S. are carried out by the JHTA and - 15 - the JiTB. individual hoteis puDiish tneir own ieariets and distribute tnem widely. An increasing number of hotels belong to international chains, so that these receive world-wide publicity and promotion through the chains! own promotion agencies. Air travel to the Caribbean is highly competitive because of the number of carriers serving the area, therefore airline pro- motion is heavy. The Jamaica Association of Villas and Apartments also, to a much more limited extent, contributes to tourism promotion of Jamaica. 43. Given the present difficulties facing the Caribbean in the inter- national tourist market, and the increasing world competition in tourism, part of Jamaica's success in accelerating growth of tourists to Jamaica will depend on its promotion. For promotion really to serve Jamaica's needs in the future, it will have to be directed both at its traditional market, i.e., the wealthy winter tourist for the December-April period, and will have to attempt to attract increasingly greater numbers of lower-income tourists in the summer months. Promotion expenditures and public relations efforts will also have to be effective to counteract press reports of social unrest in the Caribbean. IV. EXTERNAL AND INTERNAL TRANSPORT Air Traffic 44. Jamaica has daily non-stop service from 18 cities and from another 18 points there are daily through planes. Jamaica has in the past adopted expansionary policies in negotiations for new routes. Further bilateral agreements were concluded in 1970 which give Jamaica optimum through-plane transportation from the U.S. and to some extent from Canada. At present there are 12 international carriers serving Jamaica. Service to the Carib- bean is highlv comnetitive. Carriers have been losing money on these routes because fares have not been increased for several years and the proportion of excursion fares is high, as it is on all tourist routes relative to routes with a high proportion of business travellers. Certain routes, like Miami and New York to Jamaica, have over-capacity. 45. Whereas the absolute costs of travel to Jamaica are in fact com- petitive with other islands and other resort destinations, the travel cost ner mile to Jamaina is considerahlv highpr than that to enmnetino islands such as Bermuda, Nassau, Barbados, Hawaii, St. Thomas, or Puerto Rico. Some of these destinations iindniihtedlv have better travel costs per J _- __ mile because they are within the United States territorial area and there- fnre receive donmjstic tariffas hauoweve manother reason fnr the hiah nor mile cost is the plurality of air service to Jamaica which reduces occupancy rates. 46. The Jamaica Tourist Board considers that the Bulk Inclusive Tour Fares (BITs) from the USA to Europe are co,pettitilve with travel to Jama4ca and are a factor in the declining rate of growth of tourist traffic to the - 16 - Caribbean. The mission has attempted to check the veracity of this assump- tion by comparing the costs of air travel from the U.S. to different des- tinations in Europe and the Caribbean over a period of time (Table 19) with data on U.S. citizens departing by air to selected destinations in Europe and the Caribbean over a slightly longer period (Table 18). The cost of travel to Jamaica in 1970 on a normal round-trip economy fare was half the cost of travel to Europe, while two years ago it was slightly more than that. Excursion fares to Europe reduce the island's tariff advantage but it almost entirely disappears with the BITs. The BITs have reduced the cost of air fares to Europe by more than half the cost of a normal round-trip economy fare. The 1970 BIT fare to Madrid of US$170 compares with a Group Inclusive Tour (GIT) air fare of US$135 to Kingston. When the cost of ac- commodation in the GIT and/or BIT package is added, i.e., US$100 minimum per tour package for Europe and US$70 for Jamaica, the relatively minor difference in overall cost makes a trip to Europe extremely attractive. 47. While other factors undoubtedly have affected the flow of traffic, the number of U.S. citizens departing by air to selected destinations sug- gests very strongly that the introduction of the low cost fares to Europe has distorted the pattern of tourist traffic. These statistics have to be treated with some caution since they refer to first destination only of U.S. air travellers. However the growth rates for the first eleven months of 1970 confirm the trend for the first three months of the year (i.e. during the Caribbean's winter season) away from countries in the Caribbean, even including Mexico, and to Europe. 48. The heavy decline in air traffic to the Caribbean throughout the year partially confirms the thesis that the lower-cost summer tourism to Jamaica is likely to be more price elastic than winter tourism. When the summer tourist also faces a wide variety of alternative travel destinations without the winter tourist's special incentive of reverse climate but with the incentive of multi-destinations in Europe, better service and possibly even a milder climate, the minor difference in overall cost of the vacation is likely to tip the decision in favor of Europe rather than the Caribbean. There seems no question therefore that the BITs to Europe have adversely affected travel to the Caribbean. Although air tariffs to Europe are to increase in the future, the Civil Aeronautics Board has at the beginning of 1971 tentativelv annroved increases in air tariffs to the Caribbean including Jamaica that range from 3 to 30 percent. 49. The future trend of air tariffs to Jamaica is therefore unlikely tn be a snprcn1 inrpntiup to travel to jmJmaica at lepat - in sinmmer. In winter the scarcity of resort assets in the U.S. and the high cost of travel and longer d1istance to alternative wintpr recsort- areas are unliklyl t- affet- the growth of winter tourism demand very greatly. Should Jamaica be able to offer much lower average acco.mTnodatinn pric 4n -4nt- th- pr-nt, then perhaps the cost of air travel will also be one determinant of the growth of de.and for winter tourism. All these developmLents in air tariffs refer to travel from North America. The present high costs of air travel from Europe to the Caribbean and the fact that the Caribbean is an expen- sive tourist area cut off large-scale demand from one of the world's largest tourist generating areas. - 17 - 50. Jamaica competes strongly with other islands in the Caribbean, nartiril1arlv t-hncp in thp onctprn Carihhpan- benauq of nrnximitv to the eastern seaboard of the U.S. and particularly to Miami. However, the special donmctic rates 2nnnlving tn trauvl to P,uertn Ricno TTU=.- Virain Islands, Bahamas, make them Jamaica's main competitors and, perhaps, curtail the possibilities of expa-nding the tourist supplier market in the surmmer season. Jamaica will face even stiffer competition in air travel in the futuire chnoulrl the nw stpransnic airc-raft- rnme 4into nmmorrinl oenvration. These aircraft will make resorts all over the world hours closer to the tourist, thereby reducing in terms of time if not in cost, com- petitive advantage of geographic proximity to the U.S. market. Cruise Traffic 51. Cruise traffic to Jamaica was frequent until December 1969 with passenger vesse'ls stopping prinLciLpaolly in Kingstor., MULontego JB'ay andU Port Antonio. The application of a tax on cruise passengers in December 1969 caused th…e cancellation of sort-e cruise vessels. A rat…er .more ser…ous problem affecting cruise traffic to Kingston, is the adverse publicity after several 'LicdU'erts of1 ill-treatment of cruise passengers wbille they were ifn the capital city. In some cases the loss of cruise traffic to Kingston has benefited Montego Bay but incidents such as these are detrimental not only to cruise traffic to Kingston but to Jamaica's tourist image as a whole. Internal Transport 52. Jamaica has limited ground transportation mainly owned by one company plus some Rent-a-Car firms. The main routes travelled by tourists are from Kingston to Spanish Town and from Spanish Town north to Ocho Rios and from there west to Montego Bay or east to Port Antonio. While availa- bility of road transport is limited for long-distance travel within Ja- maica, 1/ special difficulties affect local internal tourist transport within Kingston, within Montego Bay, between Montego Bay-Ocho Rios and from the airport to any of these resorts. Ground transportation drivers are not licensed and, therefore, there is no uniformity in, nor control of, rates charged. A commission has been established of which the Director of Tourism is a member to study means of improving ground transportation. 53. Air transportation internally is available with frequency between Montego Bay and Kingston, which are also connected by rail, and between Ocho Rios and Kingston. Port Antonio is presently accessible by rail. New resort areas such as Negril have poor transport facilities. Travel to beaches nearer to Kingston is dependent on buses which are infrequent and heavily utilized by the local population. Tourists have to rely on taxis or chartering a car. If Jamaica is to expand its resort areas, a simultan- eous expansion must take place in transport facilities and improvement of means of access to the new resort areas. The benefits would be multiple not 1/ Long distance means a four-hour trip from Kingston to Montego Bay. - 18 - only to the tourist sector but also to production sectors of the economy, nprtiru,larlv agyrirultuirpe HoePvPr, a m-inr benefit nf imnrovepd cnnnectinns between resort areas would be to open up the interior of Jamaica which is relatively unexplored and a valuable tourist asset. V. TIHE SUPPLY OF ACCOMMODATION - PRESENT AND FUTURE Hotels 54 . Tn Tama-ica, indi 4vidAual resort areas an' even indiv iV Ldua Iotelsare .Ll 41jLU.V UiJ . ~ L S CaU~ ~" U VL U V .LUd.L L ) LVLtf.L.- klL destinations per se with their own unique characteristics. The most exclu- sive areas are all on the NorLth Coa s t [: M eLCoU Jay, Olcu RLos aL raca- bessa and Port Antonio, the latter two being reserved for luxury tourism. Hotels tendU to be sTii,a1l.L w-ith distinctive maIdunaigeme1t1t4L dllU a Loly LtaLtV"i-eV recently have the bigger hotel chains become established in Jamaica. The only exception nas been tne Sheraton in Kingston, w'nicn is essentially a business area and is visited by tourists either on day trips from the North Coast, mainly for shopping purposes, or for short stays -while exploring the island. 55. Unlike other areas of the Caribbean, Jamaica does not have any casinos on the island. The scarcity of man-made entertainment and parti- cularly of restaurants means that the hotels become small worlds to themselves. European Plan (EP) rates are available in Ringston but seidom in tne resort hotels on the coast because of the physical isolation of the individual hotels from each other and from any entertainment center. Most of the resort hotels operate on the Modified American Plan (MAP) system, i.e., room rate plus breakfast and dinner and several hotels on the North Coast pool their dinner facilities allowing guests to interchange their dinner venue as part of the room rate. An average hotel price is dirficult to establish for Jamaica, but the price ranges are given in the notes to Table 16. Jamaica's prices vls-a-vis the rest of the Caribbean are competitive particularly with its main rivals, i.e. Puerto Rico, U.S. Virgin Islands, Bahamas and Florida itself. Jamaica tends to have a larger number of high-priced hotels than the bulk of the other islands in the Caribbean (Table 17). 56. The concept of a room rate in the Caribbean has perhaps different characteristics than those generally applying elsewhere. Room rates in Jamaica, besides accommodation and meals, can also include nightly floor shows, sporting activities that range from equipment for sea sports to the use of tennis courts and golf courses; a personal maid and butler in the most luxurious hotels, where suites and individual cottages replace the tra- ditional hotel room; and the exclusive right to a white sand beach and sea - 19 - opening out from the guest accommodation. 1/ in fact the room cost of accom- modation and food in Jamaica (and most of the Caribbean) can appropriately be compared only with prices in other luxury resort areas. However, very few of these competitors offer the social exclusivity provided by Jamaica's enclave hotels. The image that Jamaica has successfully promoted is aimed at the wealthy professional, executive, or socialite who can spend two to three weeks in the sun during the North American winter paying high prices for that privilege and mixing only with his social peers. The island, however, is now deliberately attracting a different clientele - the summer vacationer who goes to Jamaica when hotel prices are 30 percent or more less than the winter rate. 57. About 45 percent of the Island's hotel bed capacity is in Montego Bay, some 30 percent in Ocho Rios, approximately 20 percent in Kingston, 2 percent in Port Antonio and 2 percent in Mandeville/South Shore (Table 14). The supply of tourist accommodation increased by 78 percent between 1960 and 1969. Additions to supply were erratic up to about 1965. The decrease in air fares in 1965 caused an 80. percent increase in visitor arrivals. The high rate of growth achieved in the period 1964-1966 has not been ap- proximated since. The supply of visitor accommodation increased by propor- tionately much less than visitor arrivals, so that the constraint on growth of visitor arrivals by 1968 was lack of adequate accommodation. 58. Nearly all hotels in Jamaica remain open throughout the year and the majority reduce their tariffs by about 30 percent between April 15 and December 15. The average occupancy rate for island hotels as a whole has been about 66 percent in 1967 and 62 percent in 1969 (Table 15), and for 20 leading tourist hotels in Kingston, Montego Bay and Ocho Rios, 77 percent in 1967 and 1969 and 82 percent in 1968 (Table 16). The 20 hotels have a min- imum occunancv rate of about 60 nercent in the trough neriod 2/ and a maximum of about 97 percent in the peak season. Although these are room rates, multfnip occupancy Is the nattern on the North Coast, 4.e.; the bed ocrunancy rate is in fact only slightly below the room occupancy rate, which is calcu- lated at 1.8 persons per room. In Kingston, which is not a resort area, room occupancy is nearer a 1:1 ratio. Analysis of all hotels by months shows that neak neriod occunancv rates have been as high as 93 nercent in Montego Bay and Ocho Rios and 88 percent in Kingston. In the second peak neriod. nocrupancy rates generally rearh 70 nperent which is high by international comparative standards. The Port Antonio area has lower ocCUnanrvy rates throughout the vear than the nthpr resort areas and Kingston; hotels are much smaller in size and in number; the peak month is February 1/ The "Value Guide to the Hotels of Jamaica," published by the School oF U* Al AA4 tt Ao at r---- 11 Un iTv ety -t.. y , . A . . _u fac to r rooms, service, food and outstanding features. The last item comprises: i..Lne restaurants, superbU beach, excellent golf course, Lfirst-class tennis courts, beautiful grounds, fabulous view and good entertainment." 2/ Less than 60 percent in 1970. - 20 - when occupancy rates reach a maximum of 72 percent. Room occupancy rates in the Kinqton area do not show marked snreadn between the trough and nAAk periods, because Kingston caters mainly to business traffic and probably rprpives only 25 nprcent (as a best guess PtimntP) of toiris-t traffic. 59. These very high orcupancy rates weprp 2 man reason for 1egislation in 1968, to encourage construction of hotel rooms generally and specifically to attempt to induce ponrstr,ti,on of larger hotels. Prior to 1968 only one hotel in Jamaica had more than 200 rooms and only 8 hotels on the Island had a capaciy of over 100 rooms (Tab1e 923 M). Nerly e An of a11 hotels had less than 50 rooms. This meant that the convention business was exclud- ed almost completely from Jamaica or was accepted with4 consi erable ir.con= venience to the group because of their distribution among several hotels. Acomparison of group m,eetin buins in Cribbean loaton in 96 sow ~~ J..~~JLt ~~ ~L .Jng.buJin s Li .LL ) ijU~_CL LUk_Lt.a.LULi- LLL I 'YU U .LLVWZ that the average size of groups to Jamaica was 75 people compared with more th'an t,wice that r.ur..b'er fLor thLe Ba1hU-MallS _ and -- Puert Ric (Tbl n2) About-- half total group travellers belonged to groups with an average of 41-43 people Ln IYUO andU 197U6 k(able 21). boverrfuellt policy has been to attract the international hotel chains who would construct the basic accommodation necessary or attractjLrLg larger groups. JL11a.Lcl [LLLCteretL LLn CULIVCLILLULL hotels has coincided with a general trend in international tourism to con- struct larger hotels because of the 747s and their greatly increased capa- city compared with the traditional jets. 60. The Hotel Incentive Act (Law No. 16 of 1968) makes provision for exemption from income tax, customs duties and tonnage tax ror approved notei enterprises, including extensions and improvements to existing hotels and guest houses of a minimum of 10 bedrooms. Income tax relief is given for 10 years in developed areas. In specially designated development areas, additonal tax exemption periods from one to five years are allowed. A 15- year tax holiday period is granted for convention-type hotels of 350 rooms and over. In the case of extensions to existing hotels, tax relief is available for additions of at least 10 bedrooms or 30 percent of the exist- ing number of bedrooms, whichever is greater. Extensions or alterations to existing hotels and guest houses should comprise substantial structural al- terations. All materials for construction, alteration, reconstruction and extension as well as furniture, appliances and equipment necessary for the efficient functioning of the hotel, are exempt from customs duties and ton- nage tax. 61. As a direct consequence of this Law, considerable additions to hotel capacity are now under construction or are being planned. Virtually all new construction is exempted from direct taxes. The mission's tentative estimates of rooms under construction or firmly planned as of mid-1970 indi- cate that room capacity in hotels 1/ will increase by 4,500 rooms or by 111 percent to a total of 8,500 rooms from end-1969 to end-1972 if existing 1/ Rooms outside hotels are excluded from these estimates. In 1969, hotels accounted for 77 percent of total bed capacity on the island. - 21 - plans are all completed (Table 23). The increases will be about 140 percent for Kingston, 116 percent for Montego Bay, 88 percent for Ocho Rios and 126 percent in other areas, most of them in the vicinity of Kingston. The com- pletion of a project takes about 2-1/2 years, depending on many factors in- cluding size of the project. If estimates of construction plans for the five years following 1972 are all fulfilled and there are no new additions during this period, which is obviously longer than the normal gestation pe- riod for a proiect, then Island capacity would increase in absolute terms by an additional 4,600 rooms, that is, an increase over the period 1969-1972 of somewhere in the reeion of 226 nercent or a total of 9-100 rooms. This means an average growth in additions to capacity of 16 percent per annum from 1969 to 1977 and compares with an averaoe annual rate of arowth of 10 percent per annum in arrival of long- and short-stay visitors from 1965 to 1969. 62. The deitribhutinn of the new accommnodation throughout the Island would result in an increase in Kingston capacity by 200 percent in 1977 over 1969; by nearly 150 percent for Montego Bay and Just over 100 percent for Ocho Rios in the same period. New areas would add 3,400 rooms to 1969 cpaciSty, all of thhese in the perIo- 172--1977, and would include lNegril, New Falmouth, Lucea and Hellshire Hills near Kingston. Plans for develop- ment of these new areas aso well as Och- R4o- the YV4nao ra Wjnatrfron and New Kingston contain projections 20 years ahead. In the Hellshire Hills area a,orthe Urban. Develop,met Corporation plans to A sm 2,000nnn in hotels and resort cottages by 1977 (i.e., just under half total existing room. capacity on the whole- TIslan in 1969) -an over - loge ter -s-.e A. /Ufl~l .a~a .y WI'f "L= WXfU.Y LV O.£L..LLU/ "L _' U/ 1 CLLL. U/V L L .LU/L1rCL L.L LUI Su/iIL 12,500 tourist rooms are planned for Manatee Bay and Hellshire Bay in the sam.e area. More- --- --nervtielyt in the 20--ya pe'o 1970-190 thef ad-3 5au.~~ ~ rLULC k_LA..>CLVC&L.V.LVt_Y £ L.LIC hU-YCC&L Ft=L±LUU 171V-177V, tLLIe aUU. tion of 6,500 hotel rooms and 2,200 rooms in other types of accommodation is be'ng considered. If all proposals for Negril, Lucea, New Falmouth, Ocho Rios, Hellshire and the Kingston Waterfront are added together, over the next 20 years some 18,000 hotel rooms and some 27,000 rooms in other types of accommodation would be added to Jamaica's present capacity of about 4,JV roomus. she increase oE tourist 'e's ini ... over 1969 leve's would be nearly 800 percent. While these estimates for the 20-year period are highly tentative and merely an indication of the scale of thinking, the mission's estimates for planned capacity to 1977 (Table 23) are probably a fairly realistic approximation of the likely pattern of additions to hotel capacity over that period. They at least reflect tentative current plans, though are likely to be an underestimate for 1972-1977 since projects that could be completed by that date do not need at this time even to have been conceived. 63. Obviously this situation raises questions as to which agencies are responsible for planning additions to hotel capacity. The criteria for ap- proval seem to be that tinancial viability is an essential requirement but that an economic rate of return on each project is not required. The ex- planation given was that the Jamaican authorities have established as an economic priority that tourist accommodation should be increased, on the assumption that (a) tourism is an essential sector for the economic devel- opment of Jamaica and (b) that the constraint on the growth of the tourism - 22 - sector in the past has been lack of adequate accommodation. Cost/benefit anallysis is therefo-re massumm ton ha.ter been taci-tlyx doneo. The Baonk of Jamaica, however, has recently made a plea to the tourist industry for con- sidAoble ca1 r 4i approval of pl-ns -nd for cost/benefit r-tio t- be care fully established for each major tourism project. 64. The procedure by which a hotel plan is approved, involves many agecie, begn6niLLL-g pJrUbULy With LI Lthe L PaL ri.sh n l foJ.lWedU Uy UtLM Planning Department, other government agencies such as the Beach Control Authlority, and the Publ-ic Worlks Depart.ment of the- Miitr fCo,uuiai tIUlLLL.L& Ly aiiu LLL A. UUi.LI. OU k.m IJiJL LMLkILL Uhi L[LU I.LLLiLaLLY VUL ,UtUI1ULL_L(CtL±ULVL1 and Works. The latter is concerned with the protection or improvement of main roadUs andU wItLI access/egress on such roaUds. lile Department Of CLViL Aviation of the same Ministry must often be consulted. The Jamaican Indus- trial Developm,ent Corporation also advises on the workings Of the Hotel Incentive Act. HIealth authorities must be consulted on sewerage and waste disposal and on density considerations. The Tourist Board evaluates the hotel's financial plan and finally, the Ministries of Finance and of Trade and Industry must also give their approval. No one agency, however, has quantified demand for tourism to Jamaica over the next few years and related present construction plans to that market demand. 65. In 1970 hotel occupancy rates have fallen compared with previous years. This raises the question as to whether Jamaica is not building to over-capacity, particularly in Kingston, and whether plans for new areas are not going to dilute Jamaica'a image in the world tourist market. More specifically, Jamaica may be opening up too many new resort areas simultan- eously and too soon. Furthermore, a global analysis has not been done on the economic implications of the new additions to capacity in terms of basic infrastructure requirements, particularly water supply, additional transport facilities, low-cost housing for employees and the employment and training implications of the new additions to capacity. 66. Another question that arises about additions to supply that are projected for the future, is whether construction of hotels with convention facilities is not becoming excessive. Jamaica is planning to expand the number of hotels with over 200 rooms from 1 in 1967 to 21 in 1977, and the number of hotels with 100 to 199 rooms from 8 in 1967 to 11 in 1977. Of the 21 new convention-sized hotels, 8 will be in new areas, 5 will be in King- ston, 4 in Montego Bay and 4 in Ocho Rios. In fact by 1977 about 60 percent of hotel rooms will be in convention-size hotels compared with less than 10 percent in 1967. The average size of hotels will have changed from 43 rooms per hotel in 1967 to 100 rooms per hotel in 1977 (see Table 23). While the convention business can be lucrative it is also extremely competitive. Many tourist resorts in the economically developed as well as underdeveloped world are trying to attract this business to extend their tourist season and main- tain high occupancy rates in hotels. However, the convention business re- quires a whole series of facilities additional to those normally provided by tourist hotels, for example, availability of simultaneous translation equipment! of efficient loud speaker systems and of movie, sound and slide projector equipment, etc. as also, in a wider context, availability of good telecommunications systems and relaxed customs transactions. Without these - 23 - other facilities, the convention business will not be attracted. Jamaica may find it difficult to comnete in the groun meeting business with the highly developed areas of the world, which apart from their tourist pull, tend to have the facilities rpu-lirpd bv conventinn hbuinesq. Snme of these areas in Europe may also have a cost advantage over Jamaica. Other Accommodations 67. One of the most significant developments in the very recent past has hben t-he venture intn roanrt cnttages (Table 14). The incrpeap in hed capacity in cottages from 1968 to 1969 was in the order of 40 percent. This type nf cm t4n 4 ioften attarckeA by, hntole nin t-he gvrondisa t-hats- 4t- helps to reduce occupancy rates by attracting people away from hotel accom- modation. Another viTTi h ;-tA the t*mor nt Aiv4rsxo4f- "SA supply structure and make vacation travel to Jamaica available to income groups that would ot1he rwis -- not be alIe to travel to Tama4i- - ---- e s4ve hotels, in the winter season particularly. Construction Industry 68. A question that arises about additions to capacity in both hotels and cottages and their infrastructure imnplications, is whether the construc- tion industry can sustain the demand projected for its services and resources. The general concensus was that the construction industry would not be a con- straint on the growth of capital investment. The industry is self-sufficient Ln cement and limestone. Dome shortages in availability of skilled and supervisory labor have been felt. Current import regulations do not re- strict the availability of materials or equipment needed in hotel construc- tion. 69. The high costs of hotel construction which result in high tariffs to the tourist warrant further analysis. Attention should be focussed on the need to construct hotel rooms at lower costs than the present average of abou.t US$17,500-20,000. The roliowing difficuities were cited to rhe mission. The recent boom in construction provoked by the hotel sector and the bauxite industry is said to have exceeded the capacity of existing firms and has probably been the main cause of faster price rises than in most other sectors. As a labor-intensive industry, construction is subject to trade union pressure and the high cost and inefficiency of labor. Since mechani- cal apparatus and heavy equipment are all imported and the industry is becom- ing progressively more capital-intensive, internal costs are increasingly dependent on international prices and import regulations. Certain materials used in construction are also imported on a regular basis, for example, glass and some irregularly such as reinforcing steel. Under Jamaican law, cost limits on contracts cannot be enforced and cost overruns are the norm. In existing tourist areas the high cost of land and in new areas the development costs of all the infrastructure and land reclamation, add to the overall costs of projects. Whether all these reasons justify the high costs of con- struction should be the subject of further study. A structural disequili- brium in the construction industry adversely affects tourism as well as other sectors of the economy. - 24 - Operating Costs 70. One of the main reasons for high tariffs in the past, was the shortness of the winter season. Profits were made from December to April after which hotels closed. Only exceptionally do hotels now close outside the winter season. It is evident that the high tariffs charged by hotels are related not to operating costs but to the level of prices that tourists seeking a luxury holiday are willing to pay. The tariff has included a charge for exclusivity as well as quality and often the hotels that have charged these high tariffs in the past have been the ones with the highest occupancy rates. However, in order to stay competitive with other Caribbean destinations and with Europe, to be able to meet unexpected falls in demand and to cater to out of season lower income tourists, existing hotels must have more flexible tariff policies. Older hotels should have amortized their capital costs to the point where lower tariffs should be feasible. Newer hotels should be able to charge internationally competitive tariffs. The Jamaican authorities should ensure that all new additions to capacity have a proven ability, through an adequate market analysis, to expand tour- ist demand for the specific tariff level which the hotel intends to charge. 71. No reliable data are available on hotel finances and particularly their profit structure. Further analysis is necessary, Riven the importance of price as a means to expand the tourist market. Hotel managers attribute present high tariffs to operating costs and cite the size of the wage bill including other benefits as a contributing factor. Heavy promotion expendi- tures may have some incidence on tariffs. To some extent, the unreliability of certain public utilities, particularly water supply in Montego Bay, has induced hotels to install their own facilities; which have raised both cani- tal and operating costs. Recently emphasis has been placed on the need for hotels to nprrhase current items lorally and for some time imnort- subsit- tion projects have been receiving official support. The costs of current itPms iiusd by hntels are generally higfh and since the ma-inrity nf hotels are catering to a luxury trade, both equipment and consuimption goods are of high quality. The question that arises, however, is whether TJmaican hotels can reduce their capital and current costs so as to offer much lower tariffs w,hen these are requi- red b.y chne in, ma.k-t demand. Planning AddiSi4 - o -Suply 72. £NCW OkLULw accomLmtnoaon is bIenecficial to JT,amaica w"en A.. d -versies .ethe price structure of supply and expands the tourist market. Existing resort oL:areas KlLaV t: aL LL aL LC:U W±L1I LOt LOJUL .l ; L:) UOCL~UOO: UL ± JW LIIU L L " O -L Ly LU. LlIO individuality of the hotels in each resort area. Port Antonio exemplifies the luxury tourist destination with Oracabessa, Ocho Rios anrd Montego Bay in follow-up order. W4here new hotels are being constructed to expand the tourist market by attracting lower incomlle tourists, these p-oJects should not have the adverse effect of curtailing demand from traditonal high income tourists, by affecting the character or existing resorts, by too high density, for example. Furthermore, the likely demand for the new facilities should be carefully evaluated with each major addition to capacity. The ability of a project to expand the supplier market should be a requirement of a new - 25 - investment, in order to avoid ruinous competition between new projects for the existing tourist market. The institution which seems best qualified to carry out such a comprehensive task of tourism development planning is the Jamaica Tourist Board, assisted by other government agencies in specifics such as infrastructure. 73. Ifn order to avoid over-capacity of a serious magnitude, the rela- tive merits of the intrinsic tourist assets and investment requirements of each of the new areas proposed for tourism development should be carefully assessed both in relation to each other and to existing resort areas. A global estimate of additions to supply on an annual basis for the next five to ten years is urgently required. The infrastructure requirements of tourist areas must be carefully evaluated and at least preliminary costs should be estimated. Decisions should then be made on a comparative basis, as to which of the resort areas has priority for development in terms of its cost, its natural assets and its marketing possibilities. VI: DEMAND FOR TOURISM: PRESENT AND FUTURE 74. During 1970, the island hotel room occupancy rate has been falling, primarily because of a continous increase in room capacity and a small de- crease in average length of stay. Data for January to November 1970 show an island-wide hotel occupancy rate of 53.6 percent compared with 62.2 per- cent for the same period of 1969; a decrease from 77.0 percent in 1969 to 67.6 percent in 1970 for twenty leading hotels; and an average length of stay of 8.2 nights compared with 8.6 nights for 1969. This situation has caused concern as has the slowdown in the rate of growth of tourist arrivals relative to expectations. The assumptions underlying the Hotel Incentive Act of 1968 were that growth of tourist arrivals was constrained by lack of accommodation. Rates of growth of tourist arrivals for the first eleven months indicate a slightly higher growth rate than in the comparable periods of 1969 and 1968 (Table 2). This rate however is well below the rate of growth necessary to maintain a 60 percent bed occupancy rate in total (old and new) accommodation island-wide. in the next two to three years (see Ta- ble 24). The decrease in the average length of stay exacerbates the decline in occupancy rates. 75. Between November 1969 and November 1970; hotel canacitv had in- creased by 610 rooms or 17 percent (Table 15). The distribution of these increases and a comnarison of occupancy rates was as follows: Occunancv Ratps Increase in Capacity November T.nrn4on of Hrotels Rooms Percent 1969 1970 King.ston 207 27 69 63 Ocho Rios 246 21 63 54 M.oontego Bay 157 9 57 61 Port Antonio 0 - 32 36 - 26 - Table 15 also illustrates the decline in occupancy rates that has accompanied additions to supply. Clearly both Ocho Rios and Kingston have suffered from the increase in capacity which has been too large to be absorbed by the mar- ket. Table 15 shows that trends in November have been typical of other months throughout the year. 76. Jamaican officials are concerned about the present situation and attribute the slowdown in the expected tourist growth rate to several factors: competition from air fares to Europe; the recession in the United States; and press renorts of social unrest in the Carihbean generallv. A further acknowledged reason for decline in growth is the high price of accommodation, hoth in relation to the qprvine received and in relation to nrices of nCOrn- modation in Europe. Competition with Europe is more likely to occur in sum- mer that with the Pernhlished winter clientlpe who regard the high prices they pay as appropriate value for what they receive. The prices of accommo- dation in Jnmnaica, however, are quite competitive, in fact are almost advanta- geous compared to prices in other areas of the Caribbean (Table 17). Finally, the unfavorable attitude of some sections of the Tmaican public to tourists is given as a reason for declining growth rates. The question that necessar- ily arises is to what extent these reasons for the slowIng down in the rate of growth are only short-term factors and to what extent, if they are longer tler., W th.ey peC.t.:anently affect the size of the tourist traffiLc. I7. TLLh L I C. . L Lli- £ le e4ffect of alr f l ares on tourist arrivals LhLas aclLreadly Ueen dis- cussed in Chapter IV. There appears to be a significant inter-relationship between th-e reducedi air fCares on a "IT basis and Athe increase in the size of ULWJ L LLLt £ tAL~ J.L L £d1 iL lL.L I JL L cLI L1LI J.LLL LecIt: .LLL Lil _iL U tourist traffic to Europe, plus the decline in travel to the Caribbean since o1 : ~~_r __ -. - - - - - - - -L - vlo -- _ Q__\ n _ .. J_ LiLt eL LLUUUL4.LLULL V L LL1Mtt L;LICl2 L a LCL SLI.ULUb .LU CLLU& L7/ . 'I LLLC L±U1=6LULL of the U.S. recession, the mission has attempted to compare visitor arrivals to Jamaica with Dow Jones averages and thne U.S. consumer price index (cnart II). A rather more serious statistical exercise than that shown on this chart woulu have to be undertaken to establish the degree of correlation between the three. Undoubtedly, however, the bulk of tourists travelling to Jamaica in the winter season will De snarenolders on the New YorK stock marKet, and a stock market loss - actual or theoretical - will affect the attitude of potential tourists travelling to high cost resort areas. One reason for the lower average length of stay may be that tourists are unwilling to cut out completely their annual Caribbean holiday but are prepared to reduce it. The trend to resort cottages could prove that tourists are becoming unwilling to spend as much as previously on the cost of a Caribbean holiday at a time when the cost of living in the United States is rising. 78. The mission has attempted to test quantitatively the implications of the additions to supply that are presently underway in Jamaica. The num- ber of visitor/nights required to maintain specific occupancy rates for plan- ned accommodation is shown on Table 24. Additions to capacity would imply an average growth rate of 11.5 percent per annum in visitor/nights over the period 1970-1977. However, in the period 1970-1972 at 60 percent bed/occupan- cy, an average of 25 percent per annum increase in visitor/nights would be required; at 70 percent occupancy, an average of 31 percent annual increase in visitor/nights. These projections compare with a rate of growth in tourist '7 _ LI - arrivals of 8-10 percent in the past and of only 6 percent in 1969. Since the exerc'se assumes tiat all tourists will De staying in hotels, growth rates of tourist arrivals would have to be even higher than projected to al- low for tourists staying in other types or accommodation ana tor a shorter average length of stay. 79. Therefore unless there is either a radical increase in the number of visitors travelling to Jamaica, or a considerable reduction in plans tor additions to capacity, it will be difficult to maintain high occupancy rates in total accommodation planned to 1977. The problem is particularly acute until the end of 1972 when additions to capacity are being completed rapidly. A straight comparison of capacity expansion in the future with tourist growth in the past, suggests that in the period 1969-1972, Jamaica is likely to have a considerable short fall in number of visitor/nights relative to supply of accommodation which will lead to a fall in hotel occupancy rates. During 1972-1977 when a rate of growth of about 8 percent would be required in visitor/nights, plans for additions to capacity are necessarily in a very preliminary state; and the mission's estimates cannot take account of those that are still to be formulated. However, once the 1969-1972 hump is sur- mounted, the medium-term prospects from 1972-1977 may be brighter if additions to capacity are curtailed to realistic limits of market demand. 80. Because of the present uncertainties in predicting tourism demand due to lack of knowledge about the world's largest tourist supplier country, a market study of US and Canadian demand is urgently needed for Jamaica as well as for the other countries of the Caribbean. Regression analysis of U.S. income distribution and air fares (Appendix C to Volume I, Main Report) suggests that an average annual growth rate of about 13 percent, which is close to the long-term trend, should be attainable in the future. However, this estimate did not take account of changes in consumer preferences, for example either between different tourist destinations or even between the choice of a consumer good instead of a second vacation. Various entities have at different times, using different definitions and bases for predic- tion, estimated the number of additional tourist beds that Jamaica is like- ly to require in the future. These different projections (Chart 3) have been compared with the total supply of hotel accommodation likely to be constructed in the period 1969-1977. 81. The chart should be interpreted with caution. The projections of bed supply are tentative and refer to total supply of accommodations so that some idle canacitv is necessarily included beyond feasible occupancy rates. Some of the projections on the demand side interpret additional room require- ments at 70 nercent occunancv. so that they exclude this idle capacity. On the other hand, the demand estimates generally are predicting higher growth rates in the earli-r years nf the nrni,etion than would seem nossible on the basis of performance in the first eleven months of 1970. Even the most tenta- tive interpretation of Chnrt I Anac ticysugest tha:t q.1dit-ionn. 1n qupnnlv nrnnncAd for the period to 1972 considerably exceed projections of demand but that by 1977 the supply of accommodation as presently planned rould hp in etBilihrium with the more optimistic estimates of projected demand. - 28 - 82. Possibly the present constraints on growth of tourist numbers will be eliminated in the future. A major campaign could improve the Jamaican attitude to tourists in the short term. The recession in the U.S. can be regarded as a cyclical factor. New air fares policies and reduced costs of accommodation in the Caribbean could possibly reduce Europe's competitive ad- vantage in the world tourist market and divert potential traffic to the Carib- bean. However, price reductions will induce an expansion in the supply of US tourists, only if other factors such as fashion or political unrest, do not adversely affect consumer preference for tourism to Jamaica compared with tourism to another destination or even with another item of consumer expendi- ture. 83. A situation of over-capacity in itself generally creates poor pub- licity for a tourist area since the distinction between under-utilization because of falling off in demand, and accidental over-capacity, because of too rapid additions to supply, is too fine a one for even most professional observers. The economic costs entailed in over-capacity are high. It would not be prudent at this moment to regard the indication of over-capacity as merely cyclical. Within two to three years it should become clearer whether or not long-term trends differ significantly from those achieved on average in the last ten years. In the meantime, the mission recommends that the Jamaican authorities begin to make an inventory of existing prolects and their costs, evaluate the comparative advantages of new resort areas and assess demand for tourism to Jamaica. VII. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOtMMENDATIONS 84. Since tourism is an economic necessity for Jamaica, the need to maintain a flow of touirist arrivals at a hiQh rate and for long average lengths of stay must be a fundamental part of Jamaican policies in the fut- ure._ Thp nrnbemR… that the sector ig facing are untdercstod h Jamnir…n au- thorities. A study of the Caribbean as a tourist area and of the U.S. sup- plier maqrkt-t wouild assiszt not- onlyr -T-mninn buit ot-her iszlands in t-he Ganribbean,l and perhaps even elsewhere, to plan more adequately their tourist facilities in the future. As well as uncertainties about the U.S. supplier market and to a lesser degree the Canadian market, one of the other variables that would influence the flow of tourist tr_affic; in future will be the eff1ect on costs of the jumbo jets. Furthermore, the increase in the number of U.S. ail-lines flyir.g to th-1-e Caribbean CoulA well result in pressure for reduceA air tariffs. If there is to be a revolution in air travel which does not result in a reduction in costs of air travel to Jamaica but of costs - and even time if the S.S.T.'s are flown commercially - to other areas, then the prospecs may ue discouraging. If, LIowever, thle effect of the new aircraft is to increase greatly the total volume of air traffic over the next five years, Jamaica m1ay be building not to overcapacity but to underecapacity for 1977. Jamaican authorities, however, will be well advised to build for a medium capacity ratner tnan accept wnat could De over-optimistic forecasts of demand which entail financial and economic costs to the economy. - 29 - 85. The responsibiiity f or the present size ot island hotel supply, for existing plans to increase capacity still further and for the absence of plans or incentives that would radically diversity the price structure ot tourist accommodation must be shouldered largely by the public sector. In the first place, the Hotel Incentives Act has been an important element in investment decisions for nearly all new construction and particularly for construction of convention-sized hotels. The growth prospects for this market appear to be exaggerated and do not take account of the build-up in convention facili- ties island-wide and throughout the Caribbean and elsewhere. Secondly, while acknowledging the necessity for lower tariffs, the public sector has not act- ed effectively to control them. Thirdly, the Urban Development Corporation and the Jamaica Tourist Board has each promoted the development of new tourist areas without co-ordinating policies to ensure that the rate of increase in new tourist accommodation and its price, is in line with prospects for growth in demand. The response of the Jamaica Tourist Board and its marketing or- ganization in promotion, creation of more recreational activities and in a publicity campaign to extoll the advantages of tourism to Jamaicans operate in the right direction. It appears, however, that the issue of lower prices for accommodation is vital to the success of tourism to Jamaica in the next few years, since lower tariffs are required to expand the income-range of tourists to Jamaica and to make the island competitive with other destina- tions in the Caribbean and in Europe. 86. Caution should therefore be employed by the Jamaican authorities in approving further plans for increases to hotel capacity on the Island. Public funds may be better utilized in providing infrastructure and improving transport access and basic facilities in existing tourist areas and in in- ducing private investment in related tourist services, rather than in induce- ment or direct financing of additional accommodation. Only by improving the standards of facilities provided for tourists rather than by increasing quantity, is Jamaica likely both to retain its present tourist supplier mar- ket and to attract new ones. It is essential, however, for the Jamaican authorities to study the comparative advantages of the new resort areas vis-a-vis each other as well as vis-a-vis existinR tourist destinations in Jamaica. An inventory of all present projects and their evaluation in re- lation to market prospects is needed. Such an analysis would help to for- mulate a long-term strategy of selective development of new areas and of. individual nroiects within thpqe- in ordpr to avoid a situiation of overcana- city and of competition between new projects for the existing market. The rontrihition of t-hp h-lotel Tnrpntlvp Art- to national inrome and emnlovment should also carefully be reviewed, and the need for incentives more clearly established than it is now. 87. International institutional lending to thep scpt-or has hben small and has concentrated on infrastructure requirements in existing tourist areas. Present plans of the IBRD to assist in organizing a market study for the Car- ibbean, would help Jamaica to plan its accommodation according to the size and price preferences of potential demand. r-Iven prospective over-capacity at least until the end of 1972 and probably until 1975, the mission cannot rec- o,-un en -,t at *I hS L,4 me ar.y d,Iret. -t 4tJALJ.ta wo ld J inuenw atioAA ns4 to tourist accommodation. STATISTICAL APPENDIX TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLES 1. Foreign visitors by category: 1960-1969 2. Foreign visitnrs. Januarv - Nnvember 1967-1970 3. Monthly arrivals of long and short-stay visitors and average length nf grav- 1967-1970 4. Age distribution of long-staty visitors by quarters 1967-1970 5. Foreign visitors by country of origin 1965-1969 6. Place of residence of U.S. travellers to Jamaica 7. Income structure of TU , S. tr7.ll1rs to Garibbeanmpared with income distribution in U.S.A. residence 8. Estimactede--- nd4t-re- - to-rha.#st 1QA90_1Q9Q (TTU$'fn0) x~~~~~~~- - - -_ L_ ,* - _ , - _ I _ - _ - 9. Foreign visitor arrivals by air and sea and port of arrival 1960-69 10. Cru4se sh4pS - r.umber and total passe----nrs by monrth 11. Foreign exchange earnings through tourism, 1965-1969 (J$ million) 12. Tourist b-oarA b-uAget", 196~0=170 (J$) I~ L JIA L.L UUOL u L 6 L - I -' I '1 13. Number of beds, Visitor arrivals, Average length of stay (1960-69) 1 4 . Istribu-on of acco=n .LUUL...odation b Dy type- and area, 1968 -n A 9-6 15. Hotel occupancy rates in specific areas by month, 1967-1970 16. Rooa occupancy leading tourist hotels,196 17. Comparative price levels: Jamaica vis-a-vis rest of Caribbean (US$) 18. U.S. Citizens departing by air to selected destinations in Europe and the Caribbean 1967-1970 19. Comparative air fares from U.S. to selected destinatLons in Caribbean and Europe 20. Group meeting business for Caribbean locations, 1968 21. Analysis of group arrivals in Jamaica by month - 1968-1970 22. The United States as potential travel market 23. Distribution of Jamaican Hotels by size, number of rooms and area, 1967 & 1969 pius major projects under discussion for 197i3 &1977 24. Projection of visitor nights required to obtain selected occupancy rates in projected hotel accommodation 1970-1977 C-HARTS I. Jamaica: monthly arrivals of long and short stay tourists 1967-70 II. Jamaica: indices of visitor arrivals to Jamaica, Dow Jones average (65 stocks) and U.S. consumer prices in 1957/59 constant prices III. Jamaica: various estimates of additional tourist beds required IV. Jamaica Tourist Board Table 1: FOREIGN VISITORS BY CATEGORY,, 1960)-70 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 Numbers o:E Foreign Visitors Long Stay 80,420 76,000 78,486 80,939 97,230 175,769 212,673 219,547 239,961 255,681 Short Stay 1:3,244 15,468 15,478 18,499 21,248 Cruiise 56,473 66,806 68,456 94,021 97,377 Arned Forces (54,129) (54,772) (50,3h1) (29,357) (43,866) (32,799) Total Foreign Visitors 226,945 224,492 206,838 202,329 232,190 300,258 345,288 332,838 396,347 407,105 Total Excl. Armed Forces n.a. n.a. n.a. n,a. 178,061 245,486 294,947 303,481 352,481 374,306 Total Long and Short Stay Visitors n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 189,013 22B,141 235,025 258,460 276,929 Percent o:E Total Lonlg Stay 35.4 33.9 3-7.9 40.0 41.9 '58.5 61.6 66.0 60.5 62.8 Short Stay ( ) ( ) 4.4 4.4 4.7 4.7 5.2 Cruise (64.6 66.1 62.1 60.0) (34.8) 18.8 19.3 20.6 23.7 23.9 Arned Forces ( ) 23.3 :18.2 14.6 8.8 11.1 8.1 Total Foreign Visitors 100.0 10C0.0 100.0 10(.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Percent o:E Total Lonag Stay 193.0 93.2 93.4 92.8 92.3 Short Stay 7.0 6.8 6.6 7.2 7.7 Total Long and Short Stay Visitors n.a. n.a. n.a. n,a. n.a. 11)0.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Annual Percent Rates of Growth Long Stay neg. 3.3 :3.1 20.1 80.8 21.0 3.2 9.3 6.6 Short Stay 16.8 0.1 19.5 14.9 Cruise 18.3 2.5 37.3 3.6 Arned Forces 1.2 neg. neg. 49.4 neg. Total Foreign Visitors neg. neg. neg. 14.8 29.3 15.0 neg. 19.1 2.7 Total Excluding Armed Forces n.a. n,a. n.a. n.a. 37.9 20.1 2.9 16.1 6.2 Total Long and Short Stay Visitors n.a. n,a. n,a. n.a. n.a. 20.7 3.0 10.0 7.1 Average Annual Rates of Growth 1960/61(69 1965-69 1967-69 Long Stay 16.0 10.0 8.0 Short Stay 12.5 17.0 Cruise 14.5 19.5 Total Excluding Armed Forces 11.0 11.0 Total Long and Short Stay Visitors 10.0 8.5 Source: Jamaica Tourist: Board. Table 2: FOREIGN V:ISITORS JANIJARY - NOVEMBER 1967-1970 January - November Percent Rate of Growth Numbers '1967 1968 1969 1970 1968 1969 1970 Long Sta;y 201,256 218,429 234,666 258,028 8.5 7.4 9.9 Short Stay 14,194 17,C27 19,613 25,388 19.9 15.2 29.4 Cruise 59,472 82,081 90,571 78,339 38.0 10.3 neg. Armled Forces 29,01L4 42,701 32,119 19,351 17.2 neg. neg. Total Foreign Visitors 3(3,936 360,238 376,969 381,106 18.5 4.6 1.1 Total Ex,luding Anmad Forces 274,922 317,537 344,850 361,755 15.5 8.6 4.9 Total Long ancd Short Stay Visitors 215,450 235,456 254,279 283,416 9.3 8.0 11.4 Total Foreign Visitors Jaunuary - December 332,838 396,347 407,105 19.1 2.7 Total Long & Short Stay Vrisitors January - December 235,025 258,460 276,929 (308,000) 1/ 10.0 7.1 (11.0) Percentages January - Noveimber as % of January - Deceber/ Long Sta;y 91.7 91.C 91.8 Short Stay 91.7 92.c 92.3 Cruise 36.9 87.3 93.0 Armed Forces 98.8 97.3 97.9 Total Foreign Visitors 91.3 90.9 92.6 Total Long and Short Stay Visitors 91 .7 91.1 91.8 1/ Mission estimate based on eleven months total for 1970. 2/ Definitions: Long Sty: Those visitors who stay in Jamaica. for three nights and more. Short Stay: Those visitors who stay in Jamaica for less than three nights. Cruise : Those persons travelling on special cruises or who are passengers on vessels in transit via Janaica and land while the vessel Ls in port. Anmed Forces: Personnel of the armed forces of all nations on shore leave in Jamaica. Source: Jamaica Tourist Board. Table 3: MONTHLY ARRIVALS OF LONG AND SHCRT-STAY VISITORS AAD A%(VrT G r`A' T Trtn OF emAV ,967 - 1970 Long and Short Stay Visitors Average I/ MDonth 1967 1968 lq9q 1970 LTnoth nf Stay Days January 23,628 23,205 27,312 31,352 9.5 February 21,237 25,260 26,673 30,570 9.6 March 25,969 28,401 30,577 33,415 9.9 April 21,893 23,143 26,667 26,823 9.4 May 15,349 19,169 18,309 20,580 8.2 June 15,822 16,839 17,652 6.8 July 21,154 23,376 22,852 8.1 August 20,890 27,187 29,126 9.3 September 13,696 15,662 15,558 8.7 October 15,142 13,136 17,144 6.7 November 20,670 20,078 22,409 7.0 December 19,575 23,004 22,650 8.2 1/ Averages of 1967, 1968 and 1969. Sol-ce: Jamaica Tow it Board. Table 4: AGE DI:STRI}UTION OF LONG--STAY VISITORS OF QlUARTZKR 1967 1970 First Quarter Second rQuarter Third Quart)r Foirth Quarter TOTAL FOR YEAR TOTAL FOH 1966 Number of Percent Number of Percent Number of Percent Number of Percernt Number of Percent l4umber of Percent Visitors of' Total Visitors of Total Visitors Qf Total Visitors of Total Visitors of Total Vlisitors of Total 1 9 6 7 Under 20 years 5,173 7.74 4,097 8.37 1,L70 14.43 3,120 6.7'7 19,860 9.30 1,45l3 8.76 20 to 35 15,764 23.58 17,324 35.39 19,708 38.07 15,231 33.06 68,027 31.,84 65,861 31.27 36 to 4'5 15,7144 23.55 10,3(5 21.05 9,693 18.72 10,029 21.71 45,711 21.42 46,63i' 22.14 146 to 59) 15,523 23.21 9,1714 18.74 5,572 16.56 9,779 21.23 13,048 20.15 42,942' 20.39 Over 59 14,659 21.92 8,0',1 16.45 6,329 12.22 7,910 17.17 36,949 i7.29 36,737 17.44 66,683 100.00 48,951 100.00 51,772 10.00 46,063 100.00 213,655 100.00 210,630 100.00 1968 Under 20 years 5,823 8.17 4,630 8.90 8,703 14.25 3,695 7.61 22,848 j.86 20 to 35 17,349 24.34 19,67r2 37.81 23,025 38-44 16,360 33.69 76,406 -2.97 36 to 415 16,774 23.53 .10,131 19.147 1:L,013 18.39 9,953 20.50 47,871 2'0.65 46 to 55 16,026 22.48 9,357 17.98 10,028 16.71I 10,08 20.7'8 45,499 9S.63 Over 55 15,317 21.48 8,2143 15.841 7,131 11.91 8,462 17.142 37,153 16.89 71,289 100.00 52,033 100.00 59,897 100.00 L4,558 10D.0O 231,777 103.03 19 6 9 Under 20 years 7,290 9.42 6,217 11.60 9,561 16.11 4,343 8.22 27,411 11.27 20 to 35 18,963 24.50 19,1,07 36.21 22,689 38.23 13,4,58 34.'95 79,517 32.70 36 to 45 17,713 22.89 10,486 19.57 11,076 15.66 10,985 20.80 50,260 230.67 46 to 55 17,173 22.19 9,427 17.59 9,552 16.13 10,661 20.151 46,813 :9.25 Over 55 16,256 21.00 o,O59 15.03 6,,471 10.90 i,374 15.35 39,156 :.6.11 77,395 100.00 53,592 100.00 59,351 100.00 52,321 100.(0 243,159 100.00 PERCENT RATES OF GROWTH OF TOURISTS IN EACH AGE GROUP N-mber of Percent First, Quarter Third Quarter Y E A R Visitors of Total 19b7/70 1967/69 1967/1969 1967/1969 L 9 7 0 Under 2D years 9,532 10.81 23 19 13 18 20 to 35 22,126 25.09 12 10 7 a 36 to 45 19,461 22.07 7 6 7 5 46 to 55 19,298 21.88 8 5 6 4 Cmver 55 17,778 20.16 7 5 1 3 c8,195 100.00 10 3 7 7 Source: JamaicaL Tourist Board and ILissicn Estimates. Table 5: FOREIGN VISITORS BY COUNTRY OF ORIGIN 1965-1969 1965 1966 1967 L968 1969 Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent of of of of of Number Total Number Total Number Total Number Total Number Tota:L UJ. S. A. 134,797 76.7 172,436 75.6 182,392 77.6 201,790. 78.1 214,140 77.:3 Canada 19,071 10.9 23,333 10.2 21,069 9.0 24,526- 9.5 27,101 9.3 Unite(d Kingdom 6,310 3.6 9,037 4.0 9,692' 4.1 9,694 3.8 9,226 3.:3 Europe 2,812 1.6 4,911 2.2 4,82Ei 2.1 5,340 2.1 5,192 1.9 lB.W. H, Guyana ) 4,781 2.7 6,075 2.7 5,723 2.4 6,001 2.3 7,075 2.6 ]B. Honduras) ILatin AmeriLca 3,340 1.9 5,755 2.5 5,452 2.3 5,324 2.1 6,385 2. 3 Others _4,658 2.7 _6,594 2.9 _ 5, 2.5 _ 5,7E) 2.2 7,810 2.8 rotal 175.769 100 228,141 100 235,025 100 2,5846(0 100 276,929 10( Annual Percent Rates of Growth Average Annual Percent Rates of Growth 1966 1967 1968 1969 19655/1969 1967/1969 IU. S. A. 27.9 5.8 10.6 6.1 12.3 8.4 Canada 22.3 nEfg. 16.4 10.5 9.2 13.4 Unitel Kingdom 43.2 7.2 0.0 neg. 10.0 neg. Europe 74.6 neg. 10.6 neg. 16.6 3.7 B.W.I., Guyana ' 27.1 neg. 4.9 17.9 10.3 11.2 B. Honduras Latin America 72.3 neg. neg. 19.9 17.6 8.2 Others 41.6 neg. neg. 35.0 13.8_ 15.3 Total 29.8 3, 0 10.0 7.1 12.0 8.6 1/ Foreign visitors comprise long- and short-stay visitors and exclude cruise passerngers and armed forces. 2/ The total f'or 1965 differs from estimates shown elsewhere for this year because of changes in 1966 in m,ethods of cdifferentiating between loing- and short-stay visitors. Source: Jamaica Tourist Board and mission estimates. Table 6: PLACE OF RES:[DENCE OF U.S. TRAVELLERS TO JAMAICCA Principal States of Numrber of As Percent of Average Annual Average Per National Rank U.S. Tourist Oripn Visitors Total U.S. Visi-- Grow-th Rate Capita Income in Average Pei to Jamaica _ to Jamaica tors to Jamaica _ Percent in each State Capita IncomeE l966 1969 1966 .1969 New York 4_3,550 57,053 27-5 28.9 9.5 $4,421 2 Florida 14,69c0 15,750 9.3 8.o 2.4 $3,427 28 New Jersey 12,618 15,313 8.() 7.8 6.7 $4,278 7' Illinois 11,005 13,797 7.( '7.0 7.8 $4,310 5 Pennsylvania 7,644 11,621 4.8 5.9 15.0 $3,664 17 2/ Total 100,455 124,646 63.5 63.2 7.5 l/ Viithin these States, the main markets are: New York, Chicago, Washington, D. C., Philadelphia, Miami, Detroit and. Boston. 2/ These totals cover only part of to-tal visitors from the USA as shown in Table 5 and cover only the main States. Source: Jamaicai Tourist Board; U.S. Department of Commerce, Survey of Current Business, April 1970); and mission estimates. TabLe 7: INCOME ST:RUCTURE OF U.S. TRAVELLERS TO CARIBBEAN COMPARIvED IfTH INCOME :DIST:RIBUTION IN U.S.A. RESIDENCE Income Structure of Income Distribution U.S. Travellers to Cari'bbean in U. S. I.ncome Group Percenit in each Category Percent in each Category 1958 1964 .1968 1958 1964 1968 Over $15,000 52 47 44 2 8 15 $10,o00 -- 14,999 17 22 31 6 13 25 UJnder $10 ,000 31 31 25 92 79 6)0 S,ource: New York Port Authority; Doyle, Dane, Bernbach, New York; and U'. S. Dept. of' Commerce Table 8: ESTIMATED EXPENDITURES BY TOURISTS, 1960-1969 ('us$ :000) 1960 40,320 1961 40,88o 1962 36,668 1963 37,800 1964 43,68o 1965 64,960 1966 78,4oo 1967 79,800 1968 87,800 1969 93,500 Methodology: Current average expenditures being used as the basis for the above estimates were derived from a survey carried out in 1962 by the Department of Statistics. The data were adjusted for devaluation of the Jamaican pound (L) in November 1967. The 1962 survey indicated the following average expenditures per guest: J$322 per long-stay visitor (i.e., US$386.40 and approximately US$43 per diem). J$18.20 per short-stay visitor (i.e.. US$21.80). J$12.00 per armed forces visitor (i.e., US$14.40). A new survey is presently being carried out by the Central Planning tJnit. Source: Jamaica Tou]ri t. Boa,4rri Table 9: FORETGN VISITOR AMRIVALS IY AIR AND SEL AND PORr OF ARRIVA.L '1960 - 15969 - L O N G S T A Y - 1/ - KITGSTON - MONTECO BAY - Annual AnnuaL Annual Percent Percenit Percent Percent Percentage Distr:Lbut0on Rate of Rate of Rate of Arriving - of Air krrivals Air Growth Sea Growth Air Growth TOTAL by Sea Kingston Montf,go Bair 12960 26,h16 5,97 53,4107 80,420 C0.7 33.1 6S6.9 11961 25,897 neg. 483 neg. 49,620 neg. 76,ooo o.6 34.3 65.7 1'362 24,752 neg. 909 88.2 52,8:25 6.5 78,486 1.2 31.9 68.1 i'363 22,125 neg. 545 neg. 58,269 10.3 80,939 0.7 2'7.5 72.5 196h 25,009 13.0 361 neg. 71,860 23.3 97,230 o.4 25.8 7h.2 1955 61,863 147.1 1,129 212.7 112,777 56.9 175,769 o.6 315.4 64.6 1966 73,227 18.LA 1,'760 55.9 137,7106 22.1 212,673 C).8 3h4.7 65.3 1967 75,768 3.5' 1,377 neg. 122,402 3.4 219,547 c).6 3L.7 55.3 1968 94,643 24.9 1,'799 30.6 162,018 13.8 258,460 0.7 36.9 63.1 '969 95,983 1.L, 3,056 69.9 a177,890 9.8 276,9,29 1L.1 35.0 65.0 1/ Arrivals to Montego Bay are by air only. 2/ Differences between these data ELnd those for long-stay visitors on other tables may be clue to the above data excldding air-charters; as well as diff'erences in definition of 'ong-stay visitors in, earlier years. Scurce: Jazmaica Tourist Boa:rd Table lo: CRUISE SHIPS - NUMBER AND TOTAL PASSENGERS BY MONTH Annual Cruise Arrivals 1966-1969 1966 1967 1968 1969 Special Cruise Ships No. of Visits 102 116 168 181 Total Passengers 46,866 48,496 71,653 80,167 Other Ships: Total Passengers 19,940 19,960 22,368 17,210 Grand Total Passengers: 66,8o6 68,456 94,021 97-377 Monthly Cruise Passenger Arrivals 1966-1970 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 January 11,322 7,931 14,932 12,475 13,809 Fehruarv 8,465 11;023 11,671 Il-702 13,743 March 10,572 7,821 11,526 16,005 12,390 Anril 5,827 4,88r 10,128 8,3514 7,1483 May 1,844 3,698 3,513 5,474 5,104 June 2 256 2,8149 5,I480 r 4,997 July 4,821 5,361 5,310 9,534 Augrnust 2 783 9h1 oh4,122 7 ,377 September 3,038 2,408 4,544 2,974 October 1,979 2,011 6,n48I4 2,700 November 5,195 6,543 4,071 4,880 December 8 704) A n8 ) i8 i o1,94 6,80 Year KK A Q< 7.3 62'.1 Source: Jamaica Tourist Board an(i Mission Estimates. TabielJ: DTSTRIrnrI02'rr Q O BY:12179/ ST TYPE .-" ;.SE, 1960 .2T- 1969 A C C O M M O D A T I O N 19 6 6 A (' C M 14 0 D A T I O N I 9 6 9 P-revent Share of each Type Percent Sh-re of each Type Percentage Average No. Distribution of Acccceodaticn Average Nh. Distrioution of A-cca-Odatic Incnreae of Reeve of 3eds in in Total of RoUms of Beds in in Total in oed Capacity Unite Rone,s per Unit each Category Ped Capacity Uvte Roons per Unit each Catecory Bed Capacity 196,3/6) Beds by Aree Bede by Area HOTEELS Kingston St. td-rew 21 755 36 1,375 1A 16, 26 839 35 1,878 58 13 '1.4 Montego BNy 39 1,630 h2 3,243 .i 31 61, 1,960 6h 3,922 45 35 1p., Oc:Ro Rios 17 1,119 66 2,230 30 23 19 1,377 72 2,730 32 25 22 .6 Pert Anto.io 6 153 26 302 4 3 6 9a 25 196 2 2 cog. Mande-illl/So.th Shore 5 1(7 21 200 3 2 6 9d 25 187 2 2 neg. d3 3,7615 43 7,350 100 76 95 8,352 46 6,613 100 77 14.5 GUIEST HOUSES Fingston 1 St. Andrew - - 107 2Z 1 13 - - 155 12 1 4l.1 M,entego Bay S - 100 27 1 7 _ - 83 22 1 nog. Ocho Rios 2 - - 12 6 0 2 - - 11 6 J 3.0 Port A.tocio 3 - - 6) 13 1 3 - - 9 13 0).0 Mandcvillo/S-eth Shore 6 - - 36 26 1 - - 7D 1) 1 n-g. 27 - - 361 150 23 _ _ 3716 100 3 .27 PESOfT OTUTAGES XR7gst-n St. Andrew 3 7 2 12 1 0 3 3 3 15 1 0 25.0 Montego Bay h5 1' 7 3 2b9 13 3 dl 2612 3 65) 25 6, (7.2 Oa:ho Rios 153 I:I47 3 359 6i 9 133 513 3 1,113 59 10 23.1 Port Anto-ci 33 ,3d 3 173 13 2 Ili 125 3 261 13 2 39.3 Xondeville/South Hhore 9 30 3 59 L 1 8 20 3 37 2 0 neg. 213 629 3 1,362 1:)0 I3l 333 963 3 1,665 1O 17 36.y APARTMENT hOUSES Kingsgtoo St. Andrew 3 112 37 1)7 36 2 3 34 26 l5C 56 2 nag. Meentege B.Ny 9 123 1b 255 i7 3 9 37 6 82 28 1 ncg. OeSo Rios 6 94 7 8d 16 1 6 23 h 66 15 0 neg. Port Aictoio O 0 0 0 - 0 1 1 1 2 1 0 18 23h 16 560 100 6 1) 165 c 298 100 3 neg. TOTAL JAM9 I'A: 376 14,747 9,616 100 682 5,665 10,353 10C 13.9 Scomrce: Ja-cic- Tousc Ooard: mivOion esti.l.ea . ~~, O C C H D~~~~~' C~1 g | C C C C o ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ I o CD Ct Co Vl VR < CD~ ~~~~~~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ CD C, F ° - ~~~~~~~~~> ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ | 0 OO H -4 C C' a-a I IC CCw ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~I o CA 0v CA. CA ~~~~~~~~4~~~~~ ~ CC C(C CF CA - C0 0C -)I C' ) C C C C C C C CC CC CC - I I C 00 H 0 N C-4 0 C> CA C- I 0 C-C C CC 0 O> C C A C C O C CC CC CC CC CA CC - CC C C CC C CC ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ , , 0 ICC CDoIO O CC~ ~~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ CC IC 11 -J IJ CA FC CC CC ID V- CC C - C C C - C CC C 4C C CC C-C _ ,C, 0_ CC C HC. 'C CC C CC -1 HC C- O.4 CC 07 N CC 0. J CA CC v A F C W -C W - CC C> C CC <; w w _ v o w w w wv o. 2CC H ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ C C - - 1- N - - -- - -- I CC -~~~~~~~~~~~~~~S D CC S I CC 0 0 CC CC C CA CC CA V - V C V CC I° Table 163 ROOM OCCUPANCY LEADING TOURIST HOTELS, 1967-70 A.,Xvterage Room> Occupancy and Length of Stay at 20 Typical TouristY.tl,16- - 1967- - 1968 - - 1969 - - 1970 - Percent No. of Percent No. of Percent No. of Percent No. of Occupancy Nights Occupancy Nights Occupancy --ights Occupancy Nights January 83.4 9.3 87.6 9.6 86.8 9.5 80.4 9.5 February 94.9 10.1 97.6 9.4 96.5 9.4 94.0 9.0 March 92.7 10.0 92.7 9.8 91.8 9.9 85.9 8.9 April 77.6 9.8 82.8 9.2 82.2 9.2 83.0 8.0 May 66.8 8.5 78.7 7.7 66.8 8.4 57.3 6.8 June 67.7 5.2 75.0 8.0 60.8 7.3 57.5 6.8 Juiy 80.5 8.4 86.5 7.8 78.L 8.1 68.6 7.9 August 81.2 9.2 92.0 8.9 84.5 9.9 71.6 9.3 Sentpmbpr 56.6 10.7 95.8 9_3 62.2 6.0 49.2 8.8 October 65.6 6.6 62.4 6.9 60.2 6.7 43.9 6.4 November 83.0 7.2 87.2 7.0 77.0 6.9 63.6 6.0 December 76.4 8.1 79.1 8.5 72.3 8.1 - _ _ Average 77.2 8.6 81.5 8.5 77.0 8.5 - - Jan.-Dec. Average 77.0 8.6 67.6 8.2 jan.-Nov. ii. Range in OcCUpanCy tRe-s 0o1 -a uing N eO ts, 196o-70 Kinaston Montevo B'av Ocho Rios (6 Hotels) (12 Hotel.s) (5 Hotels) January-December 1968 72.4 - 87.8 75.6 - 95.5 76.1 -- 85.6 1969 67.6 - 85.9 62.3 - 63.8 - 84.3 january-March 1968 80.6 - 94.2 88.1 - 9- 8 87.2 - 96.2 1969 ........ 7 9 .2 - 94. 1 O5.8 - 8.5 - 0.5 1970 75.4 - 95.3 78.8 - 62.4 - Note: For the-first eleven months of 1q70 average occLprn,ncy rate!s were 67.6% compared to 77.0%O in the same period of 1969. Av(erage nuriber of nights' stay was 8.2 and 8.6 for January-November 1970 arnd 1969 respectively. Source: Jamaica - Room Occupancy Leading Tourist Hotels.., 1967-1970. Table 17: COMPARATIVE PRICE LEVELS - JAMAICA VIS-A-VIS REST OF CARIBBEAN (US$) Country Per Diem Allowances -/ Hotel Price Ranges- Single Room_in Season U.S. State U.N. Department E.P. M.A.P. HIEXICO Acapulco 18 19-24 3-50 6-65 Other Locations 16 17 2-22 5-35 GUADELOUPE 18-22 n.a. 12-25 20-47 M4ARTINIQUE 20 n.a. 10-30 18-55 TRINIDAD & 21 8-32 12-42 TOBAGO 21-28 23 12-25 16-35 BARBADOS 18-23 20-30 10-h5 15-75 3/ JAMAICA- 20-23 23-27 10-45 18-75- VENEZUELA Caracas 25 25 12-30 18-4o Other Locations 21 U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS 20 34-h6 15-h2 32-62 ARUBA 26-32 30-36 10-36 15-55 CURACAO 26-32 30-36 10-.28 13-hO PUERTO RICO 23-26 24-47 15-55 38-85 BERMUDA 25-30 25-30 5-h5 18-62 BAHAIMAS 23-33 25-h1 12-52 18-70 ANTIGUA 18-25 n.a. 15-30 25-_5 ST. LUCIA 18-26 n.a. 12-27 25-42 I/ Whore t.wn estimate are hr the lotnwer fimire is for "out of season" visits and the higher are for the tourist season -- generally December 15 to April 15. These allowances are allncted bv thRe UN and the US State Department to employees travelling to these countries. 2/ MAP: Modified American Plan includes breakfast and dinner; EP European Plan is hotel only. Generally reo!rt1. ho%+te1s +.tndi +on offrer MAP. A wide price range tends to indicate highly developed facilities catering to different tou^rist income groups. The lower range generally refers to "boarding-house" type accommodation, the higher range luxury and first class accommodation tends to be approximately in the upper third of the price range. 3/ These per diem allowances would seem to apply mainly to Kingston where 4 e. 'V J V VJo _ luwea uC V W l I U Vll IIJG UAL 91X V Wl l l L.V u S a 1 G 4 G1 14 V is made between summer and winter seasons. 4/ Jamaica has several hotels in this upper price range where the maximum for a single roor,m, American Plan is '3S$117 per day. See also Taule. Sources; rer DLem Allowances: UN and btate Department Documents. Hotel Price Ranges: Caribbean Vacation Planner: BWIA; Fodor's Carilbbean, 1970; rIexlico: Guja de Hoteles, Department de Turismo. 1/ Table U8 U.S. CITIZENS DEPARTING BY AIR TO SELECTED DESTINiATIONS IN EUROPE AND THE CARIBBEAN 1967-1970 1 96 7 1 9 6 8 19 6 9 1 9 7 0 Total Totzd Total Total January Februarv March Jan.- Mar. Jzanuary February March Jan.- Mar. Jau!ry F,ebruary March Jan.- Mar. January February March Jan. Mar. Frarnce 6,756 5,302 8,271 20,329 7,384 6,014 7,123 20,521 8, L37 5,720 8,520 22,377 10,487 9,729 15,694 35,910 Germany 13,151 10,613 11,283 35,047 30,046 19,443 25,731 75,220 21,991 13,438 15,574 51,003 21,989 17,226 19,045 58,260 Italy 3,364 4,952 10,105 18,441 7,550 5,770 8,927 22,247 8,022 6,133 10,663 24,818 9,019 9,114 15,683 33,816 Spain 3,670 3,058 5,098 11,826 4,929 5,021 5,241 15,1.91 5,847 5,578 10,047 21,472 8,962 8,700 15,223 32,885 United Kingdom 19,054 14,316 21,329 54,739 22,977 16,630 22,248 61,855 25,535 18,244 26,126 69,905 31,132 25,388 36,595 93,115 Mexico 33,714 38,310 39,453 111,497 :34,158 42,724 43,769 120,651 43,457 50,775 48,192 142,424 55,450 57,691 59,212 172,353 Antigua 4,222 4,978 4,359 13,559 4,111 5,898 5,251 15,260 4,651 6,361 5,1C2 16,114 5,068 6,627 6,058 17,753 Bah-mas 37,013 46,103 61,486 144,602 46,803 55,565 57,372 159,740 51,251 61,054 76,345 188,650 52,740 58,859 74,246 185,845 Bernmuda 5,107 10,349 19,855 35,311 6,386 11,233 19,047 36,666 6,610 12,844 19,762 39,216 5,736 11,148 14,309 31,193 JamaLica 17,055 17,472 18,005 52,532 L8,631 19,987 18,513 57,131 20,031 21,840 22,347 64,218 19,903 24,325 24,312 68,540 Percent Increases Annual Percent Increases 1967 1968 1969 I 97C -/ January - rch _ Year Average Annual Growth Rates Year Year Year Yeai 1968/67 1969/68 1970/69 1968/67 1969/68 1970/A9 2/ Januarv - March,1967-1970 Frarice 167,816 142,078 191,815 23,7983 0.9 9.0 60.5 -15.3 35.0 3Lj 21.CI Germany 268,639 336,142 354,939 :83 117 114.6 -32.2 14.2 25.1 5.6 8.3 18.5 Italy 146,495 166,351 201,277 228,1' l 20.6 11.6 36.3 13.6 21.0 13.5 22.0 Spain 67,574 82,755 120,005 15, 877 28.5 41,3 53,2 22.5 45.0 30.7 41.0 United Kingdom 454,292 485,824 619,472 770,928 13.0 13.0 33,2 6.9 27.5 QL. 19.4 Mexico 421,820 479,368 534,671 5 1 8:2 8.2 18.0 21.0 13.6 11.5 - 15 .6 E AntLg.a 383,433 44,358 45,701 0,6s33 12.5 5.6 10,2 15.4 I.0 -ll l 9.4 Bahamas 540,134 525,772 731,163 613,51 i 10.5 18.1 - 1.5 15.9 le.8 -ID.. 8.7 Bernuda 185,717 204,766 227,797 22,,9':1 3.8 7.0 -20.5 10.3 11.2 - 1.3 - 4.2 Jamiaica 186,554 216,029 224,212 212,917 8.8 12.4 6.7 15.8 3.8 - 9.'3 Puerto Rico) 1,079,893 1,302,023 1,494,140 n. 20.6 14.8 1/ Exclusive of military persornel and crewmen. 2/ IData re:Late to eleven months January - November in 1970. Source: U.S. Department of Justice, Immigrazion & Naturalizatiori Service; and Mission Estimates. Puerto Rico Planning Board, Junta de Planificacion, Balansa de Pagos, 1969. ,able 19: COMPARATIVE A!?. FAElP FROM U.S. TO YSLECTED DESTI331:A3OPS ll CARIBBEAN ANIT EMROPE 1/ I/ - NORMAL RGUND TRIP ECONOMY FARES - - ECONOMIY EXCURSION FAhRS - - iROUP INCLUS3VE TOUO FAisE (GIT) - - NEW YORK - - MIAMI - - NEW YORK - - MIAMI - - NEW YORK - - MIAII - 1370/69 1969/68 1968/67 1970/6;1 1969/6N 1968/67 1270/69 1g69/68 196/617 197C/69 1969/68 1968/67 IT1iLman, Minimon No. OMinionom Minitm= No. BETWEEN: $ $ $ $ $ $ Days $ Dayr $ Days $ Days $ Days $ Days $ $ Tour5Pkge. of Persons $ Tour8Pkpe. of Persons Jamaica (Kingston) 232 225 225 122 122.90 117 21 155 17 155 17 155 21 64 17 64 17 66 135 70 15 Anitigua 236 23? 232 186 181 181 21 161 17 161 17 161 21 133 17 133 17 133 145 70 15 US 70 15 Puerto Rico (San Juan) 162 156I 156.60 106 105.70 105.70 3D 195 30 195 30 179 - - - - - - 114 70 60 U.S. Virgin Islands (St. Croix) 194 186 175.10 136 136 124.20 21 152 17 152 17 140 21 126 11 115 17 115 Bahamas - Nansau 162 162 162 40 40 38 21 115 17 115 17 115 21 27 17 27 17 27 Bahamas - Freeport 162 15.50 158.50 36 27.'50 27.50 Besnoda 126 120 120 142 135 135 21 85 17 85 17 85 - - - - - - 340 175 88- 95 333 175 68- 95 Hawaii 473 463 467.60 500 480 140.20 7-30 661 23 667 23 667 7-30 420 30 420 30 610 310 175 105-133 303 175 105-133 270 175 overlsh 266 175 overi5h Meaico City 270 2514 254 172 166 164 3D 240 30 233 30 222 - - - - - - Acapulco 302 27Y 278 204 188 188 33 277 30 265 30 266 - - - - - - B BULX IDICLUSIVE TOUR FAREr - London 420 420 399 556 560 543.40 29-45 265 - - - - 29-45 357 - - - - 175 10 40 or more Madrid 4666 66 460.80 598 604 585.20 29-45 290 - - - - 29-45 357 - - - - 110 100 40 or more Paris 666 66s 660.80 598 604 535.20 27-45 290 - - - - 29-45 387 - - - - 114 100 40 or -ore Rosse 57.3 573 544.40 706 710 685.90 27-45 315 - - - - 29-45 634 - - - - 220 100 40 or nore Frankfurt 504 504, 478.80 638 664 623.20 29-45 290 - - - - 29-45 402 - - - - 195 100 40 or more Lotndon 16-28 300 16-28 300 14-21 300 14-28 393 14-21 402 14-21 1421.10 Madrid 14-28 331 16-28 331 1-21 331 14-28 421 14-21 433 14-21 652.10 Pa-is 16-28 331 14-28 331 14-21 331 16-28 424 114-21 633 16-21 452.10 Rorse 14-28 609 16-2'8 409 16-21 409 16-28 502 14-21 511 14-21 530.10 Frrmakfurt 14-28 360 14-28 360 14-21 360 16-28 453 16-21 662 14-21 4dl.10 V/ The GIT and BI' system is subjent to many restrictions including the time of year in which it is applicable. For the Caribbeon the periods in which the OTT systems are applicable are: April 22 - Jane '30 September 15 - November 30 The BIT toors akre available from Noveober 1 to Marsh 31 (except during the Christmas rush of December 10 to 26) and also during the shoulder season (April 1 to Julne 4, July 6 to July 30 and August 24 to October 31) and the peak seanon (Jane 5 to July 5 and Jaly 31 to ougust 23) at higher prices. The BI' fares ore offered by tour operators through traen agents and airline offices to individual travellers as part of a tour package. The traoeller must also purchase a mioimum of US$10o tar package which includes occonssodation and often food too. GOT fares are available to individuals or gocops who purchase as airline approved torr packiae of varying coot but shicn amounts to a minimoc of $70 for Jamaica. 1/ While every effort has been made to maintain comparability between fares qooted abo-oecocDle-ity h variety of air fares at present preenLs complete accurory. The above normal and exccrsio. fares ore those ge-erally applicoble in the off-season and are economy fares except for e-cursion fares to San Juan which are firnt clans. Sources: lnternoltional Air Time Tables and oarious air:ines. Tabule 20J. UnOur DTI1' BU)aJ runF URAfLDDrIAN LutAilIulyS4 19uu r r P ORT GRAiND BAHAMA PUERTO RICO JAMAICA Total Visitors 1967-/ (ex-cruise arrivals) 231,382 809,75 23,0) 25 Increase over previous Year 20.8% 14.8% 3.0% Estimated Visitors: 1968 289,000 930,000 258,460 Number of Visitors to Group Meetings 115,600E 75,973 29,552 Average Size per Group l1OE 165 75 Average Expenditure per 2 Participant US$ 4l.50 46.oo ho.o0-0 Average Length of Stay 5 days 5.4 days 9 days- Expenditures by Groups at 2/ Location (in Thousand US$) 23,987 18,841 10,640o Percent Group to Total Visitors 40.0 8.2 11.4 Percent Total Visitors from U.S.A. + 90.0 87.5 78.1 1/ Fiscal year to June 30 for Puerto Rico. 2/ Estimated. Source: Grand Bahama Island Tourist and Convention Board, Economic Development Administration of Puerto RiCo Caribbean Travel Association, and Jamaica Tourist Board. Riblishepd in ADET.ATEC, program fo)r t.hp Development of Negril and Surrounding Areas, Jamaica W.I., figures for Jamaica updated by mlssion. Table 21: ANALYSIS OF GROUP A2IRIVALS I21 JAMAICA BY MIONTH - 1968-1970 1 9 6 8 1 9 6 9 1. 9 7 0 lip to 99 People 100 & Over T o t a 1 Up to 99 People 100 & Over T o t 1i I Up to 99 People 100 & Over T o t a l No, of No. of No. of No. off No. of No. of No. of No. of No. of No. of No. of No, of No. of No. cf No. of No. of No. of No. cf Groups People Groups PeopLe Groups People Groups People Groups People Groups l?eople Groups People Groups People Groups People January 20 850 12 1,663 32 2,513 26 1,151 9 1,862 35 3,013 27 1,312 7 1,061 34 2,373 February 18 592 2 2(05 20 797 14 533 6 759 20 1 292 14 622 - - 14 6!22 March 22 950 10 1,22:7 32 2,177 22 777 6 999 28 1,776 19 9f3 5 753 24 1,716 April 28 1,337 14 2,432 42 3,769 22 934 11 1,352 :13 2,286 27 1,O067 9 1,277 36 2,364 May 20 754 14 2,461 34 3,215 1S 879 S 1,870 27 2,749 23 943 13 2,402 36 3,345 June 17 629 4 770 21 1,399 15 601 6 1,097 21 1,698 July 27 1,238 6 929 33 2,167 29 1,249 4 659 :13 1,908 August 35 1,445 10 1,537 45 2,982 27 908 9 1,608 316 2,516 September 9 302 2 3:10 11 632 f 235 15 1,944 2,1 2.179 October 26 1,062 12 1,890 38 2,952 29' ,318 31 4,055 60 5,373 November 47 1,953 15 2,463 62 4,416 34 IL,478 15 2,235 49 3,713 December 13 514 11 2,0iL9 24 2.533 20 [1.128 _7 767 27 1,895 Total Year 281 11.626 112 17.926 393 29,552 26:3 l]L.191 127 19.207 390 :30,398 Average per Group 41 160 75 43 151 78 January - May 107 4,483 52 7.988 159 12,471 lo. 1 4274 4D 6.842 143 l1i,116 110 4,927 34 5,49 144 10,420 Average per Group 42 154 78 41 171 78 45 162 i2 Source: Jamaica Tourist Board Table 22: THE UNITED STATES AS POTRITIA-L TRAVML K5.RKETh 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985) Basic Market Factors Population of United States (in millions) 180 197 214 228 242 261 Vacation Days Available annually per capita 9.8 10.4 .1,0 12.0 13.0 13.7 Dispcsable Income Available (per capita - 1958 dollars) $1,890 $2,102 $2,314 $2,496 $2,678 $2,858 Expenditures of Travel per capita (1958 dollars) $ 146 $ 159 $ 172 $ 194 $ 217 $ 235 Intercity Miles Traveled Annuailly per capita 4,357 4,800 5,259 5,968 6,676 7,358 Resulting Travel Number of Trips Taken by U.S. Residents (in thousands) 339,900 387,600 439,800 508,4C0 576,900 644,0D0 Numbetr of Trips to Destina- tions in West Indies including Bahamas (in thousands) 1,214 2,129 5,088 8,750 12,690 16,990 Percentage of T'rips with Destination in West Indies 0.36% 0.55% 1.16% 1.72% 2.20% 2.64% Number of Visitors f rom U.S.A. 2/ to Jamaica (in thousands) 70 13.5 214 (525) (760) (1,000) Trips to Jamaica as Percent of Total Trips to West Indies 5.8 6.3 4.2 (6.0) (6.0) (6.0) / lJ.S. excludes Puerto Rico and refers to stay-over visitors only: excluding cruise-ship visitors. 2/ -1969 data. Source: Alrthur D. Little, Inc: Future of Tourism in the Netherlands AntilLes, June 1969; and mlission fe3timates "or Jamaica. Table 23: DISTRINUTION OF JAMAICAN HOTELS BY SIZE, NUMBER OF ROOMS & AREA, 1967 & 1969 PLUS MAJOR PROJECTS UNDFR DTSCUSSION FOR 1973 & 1977 - TOTAL NUMBER OF HOT3LS - - TOTAL NUMBER OF ROOMS - HOTEL SIZE Montego Ocho Port New Montego Ocho Port New ROOMS Island Kingston Bay Rios Antonio Others Areas Island Kingston Bay Rios Antonio Others Areas 1967 1 - 49 59 17 25 9 5 3 1,369 347 576 250 130 66 50 - 99 14 3 7 4 - - 952 180 503 269 - - 1.00 - 199 8 - 4 4 - - 986 - 433 553 - - Over 200 1 1 - - - - 202 202 - - - - TOTAL 82 21 36 17 5 3 3.509 729 1,512 1072 130 66 Average Size 43 35 42 63 26 22 1969 1 - 49 59 18 26 6 5 4 1,484 453 663 144 131 93 50 - 99 16 4 4 8 - - 1,039 255 289 495 - - 100 - 199 7 - 4 3 - - 1,045 - 518 527 - - Over 200 2 1 - 1 - - 468 202 - 266 - - TOTAL 84 23 34 18 5 4 4,036 91i 1,470 1,432 131 93 Average Size 48 40 43 79 26 23 1.972 1 - 49 74 20 31 10 5 8 1,849 509 753 246 131 210 50 - 99 24 4 6 12 2 - 1,611 255 435 791 130 - iOO - i99 n 2 5 4 = 1,623 272 666 685 - Over 200 9 3 3 3 - - 3,445 1,144 1,325 976 - - TOTAL 1.10 29 45 29 7 8 8,528 2,18t0 3,179 2,698 261 2L1 Average Size 72 75 71 93 37 26 197[7 1 - 49 75 20 31 10 6 8 - 1,893 509 753 246 175 210 - 50 - 99 25 4 7 12 2 - - 1,701 255 525 791 130 - - 100 - i99 1i 2 5 4 - - - 1,623 272 666 685 - - - Over 200 21 5 4 4 - - 8 7,945 1,694 1,675 1,176 - - 3,400 TOTAL 132 31 47 30 8 8 8 13,162 2,730 3,619 2,898 305 210 3,400 Average Size 100 88 77 97 38 26 425 - ABSOLUTE INCREASES IN NUMBER OF ROOMS - 1967 - 1969 527 181 - 360 - 27 - 1969 - 1972 4,492 1,270 1,709 1,266 130 117 - 1972 - 1977 4,634 550 440 200 44 - 3,400 1969 - 1977 9,126 1,720 2,149 1,466 174 117 3,400 - PERCENTAGE INCREASES - 1967 - 1969 15.0 24.8 - 33.6 - 40. - 1969 - 1972 111.3 139.6 116.3 8.4 99.2 125.8 - 1972 - 1977 54.3 25.2 13.8 7.4 16.9 9.0 - 1969 - 1977 226.1 200.0 146.2 102.4 132.8 125.8 - - AVERAGE ANNUAL RATE OF GROWTH - 1967 - 1969 7.3 11.7 - 15.6 - 18.7 - 1969 - 1972 28.5 33.5 29.5 23.5 25.5 31.5 - 1972 - 1977 9.1 4.6 2.6 1.4 3.2 - - 1969 - 1977 15.9 14.7 11.9 9.2 11.1 10.7 - Note: "New Areas" includes: 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 Total Percent of Total New Falmouth 350 750 1,100 32.4 Hellshire 400 500 500 1,400 41.2 Negril 550 350 900 26.5 Total 3,400 100.0 Source: Mission estimates based on information from various sources including Urban Development Corporation, Jamaica Tourist Board, AL'ELATEC, etc. TableA ?1l: PROJECTION OF VISITOR NIGHTS REQUIRED TO OBTAIN SELECTED OCCUPANCY RATES IN PROJECTED HOTEL ACCOMMODATION 1970-1977 I. ACCOMAODATION AND OCCUT'hCY, 1965-196') Number of Beds- ALnnual Percent Long andi Short Stay Annual Percent; Room Occupancy Rate of Growth Visitor Nights Rate of Growth Ba-tes in Hotels Thousands 1965 '7 , 41 7.4 1,795 1966 8,25( 3.9 1,937 7.9 1967 8,91:L 8.o 2,022 4.4 65.7 1968 9,616 7.9 2,189 13.0 66.83 1969 10,95( 13.9 2,349 7.3 62.11 II. PROJECTIONS OF REQUIRED VIS'-OR iiI,HTS, 1970-1977: TWO ALTDE NATIVES Annual Percent Beds Rate of Growth Visitor Nights Required Annual Percent Percentage Bed Growth Rates Occupancy -TYT72 71F) _T y TT 1970 14,00( 27,9 3,066 3,577 3065 52.3 6c 70 1971 16,50( 17 9 3,614 4,218 17.9 17.9 60 70 1972 20,70() 25,5 4,533 5,289 25.5 25.5 6o 70 1973 21,70() 4.8 4,752 5,5414 4.8 4.8 6c '70 1974 22,800 5-l 4,993 5,825 5.1 5.1 6ci 7>0 1l975 26,200 14,-9 5,738 6,69,2 14.9 14.9 6o 70 1976 28,30( 8.0 6,198 7,231 8.0 8.0 6c, ,70 1977 30,000 6,o 6,570 7,665 6.o 6.0 6C 70 III. PizRCE14TAGE AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWrH RAkTES Actuals Nuimber of Beds Visitor Nights 1965-1969 8.4 7 .0 Projections Alternative 1 Alternative 2 1969-19 72 23.6 24.-5 31.1 1969-1977 13.4 13 .7 15.9 1970-1977 11.5 1l., 11.5 1973-1977 8.4 8.14 8..4 JAMAICA: MONTHLY ARRIVA LS OF- LONG ANID SHORT .STAY TOUFRIS'TS 1967-11970 (THOUSANDS OF- TOURISTS) 35 - _ 35 1 970 ' 30 __ _ _ _ _ . _ _ _ _ 3 0 1 969. a30 * .....__ _________ _ _ . -25 1968 2 0 20 -A ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ V 1967 \ 1 5 - - _ _ _ _ -*1'*_ _ _ _ 15 I10 Io- - .~ 1 ,A A V E:R A GE LEN GTH OF STAY Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Auc Se'p Oct Nov Dec > M 0 N T H S IBRD - 5065(R) JAMAICA: INDICES OF VISITOR ARRI'VAL-S TO JAMAICA, IDOW JONES AVERAGE (65 STOCKS) AN[) U.S. CONSUMER PRICIES IN 19!57/59 CONSTANT FPRICES; I'JANUARY 1967 100) 140 rI---- rrI I--r- -I r 1 I -I -TTi -r r-v I - 140 VISITOFR ARRIVALSi 120 1_ _ ___ ___ 20 DOW JONES AVERAGE (65 STOCKS)N I B I 5 ( CONSUMER PRI[CES-' - - 80 VI F ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~80 60 60 40 40 1967 1968 1969 1970 I BRD -5133(R) CHART III JAMAICA: VARIOUS ESTIMATES OF ADDITIONAL TOURIST BEDS REQUIRED (THOUSAND BEDS)____ ____ ___ 401 1 I I I 1 140 301 ---- I . I l l j!1? I (2,J3O ILV~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ K. 6 20 10 h,s..-1H o 7~~~~I7 7 6 6~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 64 4 6 3 .) ' .1 PANAM-High P- . _ 4 / ~ ~~ ~ ~ ~ ~~~ 1{ 1 1 j - w 0/t [ *+(2) Mission estimate based on Jamaica obtaining 6% of US trips to West t . s . + ;~~~~~~~~~~~~~ndie3 os projected by Arth ur D. L i t t. ir Ju nea1969 in " F u u r o f 1 or---- zl . .1 in the Net6erfands Antille3. > . 1~~~~~~~~3) Mission interpretation of ADELATEC estimate of room demand at 70% 2 ( /. 4J Tourist projects under construction or approved 1970-1973 and _2 2.* ~Proiections based on tentative projects 1973-1977 . 15)PANAM- Low Projection / _ _ _ _ _ (6) Project ion of Visitors by Lamorre Valois InternationalLimited 1970. 1 I! . NOTES: Bosed on one bed for every 25 additionol long stoy visitors. Total beds 31st December 1969 were 10 950 Totol for any year can be 1 , calculated byadding 10,950 to the annual fiiyure. 1970 '71 '72 '73 '74 '75 '76 1977 Y E A R S BRr} - 5140(R) CHART IV JAMAICA TOURIST BOARD | CABINET E MINISTER OF TRADE AND INDUSTRY MINISTRY OF TRADE AND INDUSTRY THE BOARD DIRECTOR OF TOURISYT (CHAIRMAN I PERMANENT SECRETARY MINISTRY OF TRADE AND INDUSTRY (11 EXECUIIYE DIRECTOR OF JAIMICA INDUSTRIAL DEV. CORP. l | OEPT. rlEAD IN JAMAICA TOURIST BOARD I11 NEW MEMBER'S TO AT ADDED (31 DIRECTOR | |EcORDECREARY| Li~ ASS IRECTOR OFINANCIAL PLANNING L JL