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DIREC TIONS IN DE VELOPMENT
Countries and Regions
Low-Carbon Development
Opportunities for Nigeria
Raffaello Cervigni, John Allen Rogers, and Max Henrion, Editors
Low-Carbon Development
Direc tions in De velopment
Countries and Regions
Low-Carbon Development
Opportunities for Nigeria
Raffaello Cervigni, John Allen Rogers, and Max Henrion, Editors
© 2013 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank
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ISBN (paper): 978-0-8213-9925-5
ISBN (electronic): 978-0-8213-9926-2
DOI: 10.1596/978-0-8213-9925-5
Cover image: A member of a women’s farming cooperative stands before solar panels that power her com-
munity’s drip irrigation farms. Solar market gardens provide a cost-effective, labor-saving, and clean way
of delivering much-needed irrigation water, particularly during the long, dry season. © Jennifer Burney,
Center on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University. Used with the permission of
Jennifer Burney / Center on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University. Further permis-
sion required for reuse.
Cover design: Naylor Design, Inc.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data has been requested.
Low-Carbon Development • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-9925-5
Contents
Foreword by Nigeria’s Coordinating Minister for the Economy xi
Foreword by the World Bank xiii
Preface xv
Acknowledgments xvii
About the Editors xix
Abbreviations xxi
Overview 1
Main Message: A Low-Carbon Way to
Achieve Vision 20: 2020 1
The Reference Scenario: Double Carbon Emissions 2
Stabilizing Carbon Emissions 3
Setting Sector-Specific Priorities 5
Recommendations 7
Chapter 1 Introduction 13
Objectives 13
Scope and Limitations 14
Structure 15
References 16
Chapter 2 Country and Sector Background 17
GHG Emissions: Recent Estimates 18
Agriculture and Land Use Change 20
Oil and Gas Sector 21
Power Sector 21
Transport Sector 21
Note 22
References 22
Chapter 3 Research Approach and Methods 23
Comparing Scenarios 23
Selecting Low-Carbon Technologies and Interventions 24
Analysis Methods 25
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vi Contents
Sources of Data and Key Assumptions 27
Consultations with the Nigerian Government and Other
Stakeholders 31
Notes 31
References 32
Chapter 4 Agriculture and Land Use Sector 37
Agricultural Growth Model 38
Land Use Changes 39
Sector Investments and Technological Change 41
Reference Scenario Emissions 43
Low-Carbon Scenarios 44
Recommendations for Agriculture and Land Use 51
Notes 56
References 56
Chapter 5 The Oil and Gas Sector 59
Study Results 60
The Demand for Gas 62
GHG Emissions for the Reference Scenario 69
GHG Emissions in the Low-Carbon Scenario 69
Gas Prices 72
Recommendations for Oil and Gas 74
References 75
Chapter 6 The Power Sector 77
Projecting Development of the Sector 77
The Reference Scenario 85
Low-Carbon Power Technologies 87
Low-Carbon Generation Mix 92
Demand-Side Measures in the Low-Carbon Scenario 94
Lower Power Costs in the Low-Carbon Scenario 96
GHG Emissions Reduction in the Low-Carbon Scenario 99
Assumptions about Costs of Fossil Fuel and Renewables 99
Sensitivity Analysis of the Effects of GDP
Growth on Emissions 99
Recommendations for the Power Sector 101
Note 111
References 111
Chapter 7 The Transport Sector 115
Road Transport in the Base Year 115
Reference Scenario for Transport 118
Low-Carbon Interventions for Transportation 123
Impact of the Promotion of Low-Carbon Policies 126
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Contents vii
Recommendations for the Transport Sector 127
References 129
Chapter 8 Summary of Findings and Recommendations
across Sectors 131
Emissions across Sectors for the Reference Scenario 131
Emissions and Mitigation Potential for
the Low-Carbon Scenario 133
Costs and Benefits of the Low-Carbon Scenario 136
Uncertainties and Sensitivity Analysis 138
Recommendations: Reconciling Growth with
Low-Carbon Development 139
Note 148
References 148
Bibliography 149
Boxes
1.1 Nigeria and the Clean Technology Fund 14
4.1 Conservation Agriculture in Brazil and Zambia 45
4.2 Partners for a Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA)
Network in Nigeria 52
4.3 Nigeria’s Agricultural Transformation Agenda (ATA) 55
5.1 Low-Carbon Interventions for the Oil and Gas Sector 70
6.1 Estimating Off-Grid Generation and Emissions:
A Sensitivity Analysis 79
8.1 The Experience of China with Scaling Up Renewable Energy 141
8.2 Carbon Finance: A Brief Overview 143
8.3 Nigeria’s Progress toward Nationally Appropriate
Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) 146
Figures
O.1 Reference Scenario: Annual CO2e Emissions to 2035 2
O.2 Low-Carbon Scenario: Mitigation Potential and
Residual Emissions by Sector 3
O.3 Marginal Abatement Cost Curve for Nigeria, 2010–35 6
2.1 Historical Real GDP Growth Rate 18
2.2 Emissions in Nigeria and Comparator Countries, 2005 19
2.3 Sector Composition of Nigeria GHG Emissions, 2005 20
3.1 Marginal Abatement Cost Curve for the Power Sector 27
3.2 GDP Evolution under Vision 20: 2020 and
the Reference Scenario 28
3.3 Nigeria Population Pyramids for 2010 and 2050 29
4.1 Implementation of the Nigeria Vision 20: 2020 Road Map 38
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viii Contents
4.2 Reference Scenario: Relative Contributions to
Total Production Increase 39
4.3 Land Use Evolution for the Reference Scenario, 2010–35 42
4.4 Evolution of the Annual Emissions in the Reference Scenario by
Agricultural Activity, 2010–35 44
4.5 Low-Carbon Scenario: Relative Contributions to
Total Production Increase 47
4.6 Agricultural Mitigation Potential by Subsector for
Two Low-Carbon Scenarios 49
4.7 Capacity Building Model 53
5.1 Historical Oil and Gas Production and Flared Gas Volumes 60
5.2 Oil and Gas GHG Emissions by Source, 2010 60
5.3 Reference Scenario Oil and Gas GHG Emissions by Source 61
5.4 Reference Case Projected Demand for Gas for On-Site Use 63
5.5 Projected Production of Oil and Condensate for
Existing and New JV and PSC Fields 65
5.6 Associated Gas (AG) Production 67
5.7 Gas Demand and Supply Projections 68
5.8 Reference Scenario: Oil and Gas GHG Emissions by Source 69
5.9 Low-Carbon Scenario: Emissions Reductions from Oil and Gas 72
5.10 Revenues and Costs for the Low-Carbon Scenario 73
6.1 Annual Per Capita Electricity Use vs. Income for
120 Countries, 2008; Nigeria Projections, 2008–35 78
6.2 Projected Grid and Off-Grid Power Consumption, Reference
Scenario 80
6.3 Levelized Fuel Costs over Plant Lifetimes, 2009 83
6.4 LCOE Projections for Grid Supply Technologies 83
6.5 Projected LCOE for Off-Grid Technologies in Nigeria 84
6.6 Reference Scenario: Electricity Generation by Technology 86
6.7 Reference Scenario: Emissions by Generation Technology 87
6.8 Total Carbon Emissions in the Reference and BAU Scenarios 87
6.9 Potential Energy Savings from EE Programs in the
Low-Carbon Option 97
6.10 Total Annual Electricity Expenditure for Reference and
Low-Carbon Scenarios as Percentage of GDP 97
6.11 Breakdown of Total Expenditure into Capital, O&M, and
Fuel Costs 98
6.12 Projected Reductions of Emissions in the Low-Carbon Scenario 100
7.1 Composition of Vehicle Fleet and Vehicle Uses 117
7.2 Base Year Fuel Consumption by Vehicle and Fuel Type 119
7.3 Car Ownership vs. Income in Various Countries:
Nigeria in 2010 and 2035 120
7.4 Effect of Low and High Car Ownership Trajectories on
GHG emissions 121
7.5 CO2e Emissions over the Study Period 122
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Contents ix
7.6 Impact of Transport Sector Mitigation Measures on CO2
Emissions Levels 127
8.1 Annual CO2e Emissions in the Reference Scenario 132
8.2 Reference Scenario: Sector Composition of
GHG Emissions in 2010 and 2035 132
8.3 Annual CO2e Emissions in the Low-Carbon Scenario 134
8.4 Mitigation Wedges for the Four Sectors 135
8.5 Percent Shares by Sector of Mitigation Potential over Time 135
8.6 MAC for Nigeria (Selected Low-Carbon Interventions) 136
Maps
O.1 Diversification of Energy Sources in the Low-Carbon Scenario 5
4.1 Agricultural Land Use Map 40
4.2 Land Suitable for Agricultural Use 41
6.1 Average Wind-Speed Map for Africa and Nigeria 90
6.2 Nigeria’s Annual Direct Normal Solar Radiation for CSP 91
6.3 Insolation Levels for PV Power in Nigeria 92
6.4 Diversification of Energy Sources in the Alternative Case
Scenario 95
Tables
O.1 Low-Carbon Scenario: National Costs and Benefits by
Sector (2010–35) 4
O.2 Indicative Targets and Recommendations by Sector and
Time Horizon 7
4.1 Agricultural Growth Model for the Reference Scenario 39
4.2 Land Use in 2010 and 2035 for the Reference Scenario 42
4.3 Reference Scenario: Annual GHG Emissions in 2010 and 2035 43
4.4 Agricultural Growth Model of the Low-Carbon Scenario vs.
the Reference Scenario 47
4.5 Land Use in 2010 and 2035 for the Reference and
Low-Carbon Scenarios 48
4.6 Mitigation Potential of Each Activity 49
4.7 Results for the Two Low-Carbon Simulations from 2010 to 2035 50
5.1 Low-, Mid-, and High-Cost Product Price Scenarios, 2012–35 73
6.1 Source Categories of Electricity Supply in Nigeria 79
6.2 Planned Reduction in Electricity T&D Losses 81
6.3 Nameplate and Available Capacity for Existing Plant and
Planned Additions 81
6.4 New Generation Capacity by Technology for
the Reference Scenario 82
6.5 Two Scenarios for Power Sector Development to 2035 88
6.6 Potential Contribution from Waste-to-Power, Biomass, and
Small Hydropower 92
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x Contents
6.7 Generation Capacity Mix in the Reference and Low-Carbon
Scenarios 93
6.8 Effect of GDP Growth Cases in 2035 on Power Demand and
Emissions for Reference and Low-Carbon Scenarios 101
6.9 Recommendations for the Power Sector 102
7.1 Vehicle Fleet Estimates for 2010 Based on
Vehicle Population Data 116
7.2 Base Year Vehicle Average Annual Mileage (2010) 117
7.3 Projected Macro-Sectoral Shares for Value-Added in Nigeria 120
8.1 Low-Carbon Scenario: End-Year Emissions and
Cumulative Emissions Abatement by Sector 134
8.2 Shares of Sector Mitigation Potential by Class of
Marginal Abatement Cost 137
8.3 National Costs and Benefits of the Low-Carbon Scenario 138
Low-Carbon Development • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-9925-5
Foreword by Nigeria’s Coordinating Minister for
the Economy
Over the past decade Nigeria has experienced steady growth, averaging more
than 7 percent per annum in the last five years. Our country has the potential to
make further strides toward rapid, more inclusive growth, which would reduce
poverty further and create more opportunities for shared prosperity. We need to
do this in a way that is sustainable over the longer term, in economic, social, and
environmental terms; we need to develop innovative ways to diversify our
economy, still too dependent on petroleum products; and we all need to work
together to make this an enduring reality.
“Green growth” is emerging as a new paradigm to reconcile developing coun-
tries’ urgent need for rapid growth and poverty reduction with the conservation
of the natural resources capital on which lasting development depends. Green
growth promises to provide people with both jobs and a healthier e nvironment—
for today and tomorrow.
However, there is no single blueprint defining how this new paradigm could
be implemented in different countries. What is essential is a solid knowledge base
to assess costs and benefits of different avenues to pursue green growth, which
are inherently country-specific.
This book provides an important foundation of such a knowledge platform, as
it assesses how “low carbon” (a key ingredient of green growth) could be main-
streamed into Nigeria’s development path over the next 25 years. Its main
insight—that Nigeria can stabilize carbon emissions while at the same time reap-
ing significant national benefits—is an important one. The book points, in a prac-
tical way, to areas where low-carbon technologies and management options could
contribute to domestic development. These include tapping into renewable
energy and energy efficiency, accelerating the reduction of gas flaring and exploit-
ing opportunities for commercial use of natural gas thereby saved, scaling up
sustainable land management for higher yields in agriculture, and enhancing the
fuel efficiency of vehicles to make road transport cheaper and cleaner.
These are important elements that can help the design and implementation of
sector policies. In addition, the book also provides insights for broader, cross-
cutting policy planning, and in particular the observation that low-carbon devel-
opment might have significant net benefits for the economy as a whole, which
the book quantifies on the order of 2 percent of GDP. As we look to the next
wave of investment to move Nigeria closer to the objectives of Vision 20: 2020,
this book will assist us in making choices that could reconcile economic and
environmental objectives.
Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala
Coordinating Minister for the Economy and
Federal Minister of Finance
Low-Carbon Development • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-9925-5 xi
Foreword by the World Bank
Nigeria has the ambition, as enshrined in the “Vision 20: 2020” strategy docu-
ment, to become one of the world’s 20 largest economies by the year 2020. Some
observers believe that this objective cannot be met without damage to the
national or global environment. However, experience has shown that this is not
inevitable. The development community is looking with increasing interest, par-
ticularly in the aftermath of the Rio+20 Summit, at concepts such as “green
growth” and “low-carbon development” and how these principles can be trans-
lated into concrete policies and investments.
The Federal Government of Nigeria and the World Bank have agreed to
carry out a comprehensive analysis of the opportunities to reconcile economic
growth with concerns for climate change. Over the course of two years, we at
the World Bank have worked closely with the government, as well as with
representatives of academia, the private sector, civil society, and the commu-
nity of development partners, to produce the first comprehensive low-carbon
development study for Nigeria (and, with the exception of South Africa, first
for the Sub-Saharan Africa region as a whole).
This book presents the final results of that analysis. Focusing on four key
sectors—agriculture and land use, oil and gas, power, and transport—the a nalysis
shows that low-carbon development can be an attractive proposition for Nigeria,
not just because it would position the country as a leader in the fight against
climate change, but, perhaps more importantly, because it would generate signifi-
cant domestic benefits. These include a more productive and climate-resilient
agriculture sector, cheaper and more geographically balanced power generation,
more efficient use of the country’s endowment of oil and gas resources, and
better provision of transport services, resulting in improved air quality and lower
congestion.
This book identifies a number of specific actions that Nigeria can undertake
to move toward a model of development that reduces carbon emissions while at
the same time spurring growth. We believe that with the right combination of
better knowledge, more evidence-based environmental policies, better gover-
nance, and adequate funding, Nigeria could rapidly seize many of the win-win
Low-Carbon Development • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-9925-5 xiii
xiv Foreword by the World Bank
opportunities the book discusses; the World Bank stands ready to assist the
country in all of these areas.
Marie Francoise Marie-Nelly Jamal Saghir
Country Director for Nigeria Sector Director
The World Bank Sustainable Development Department,
Africa Region
The World Bank
Low-Carbon Development • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-9925-5
Preface
The analysis of low-carbon development options in Nigeria was undertaken dur-
ing a period of more than two years and involved the preparation of a number
of sector-specific background reports. This book presents a synthesis of the key
findings and conclusions for the sectors of inquiry—agriculture and land use, oil
and gas, power, and transport—as well as cross-cutting findings and
recommendations for the country as a whole.
A separate companion volume, Assessing Low-Carbon Development in Nigeria:
An Analysis of Four Sectors, to be published as part of the World Bank Studies
series, provides a more detailed description of the study methodology and the
results obtained in each of the four economic sectors.
The analysis is based on data and information collected up to June 2012;
changes in government policies, national or international markets, and other
developments that have occurred since then are not reflected in the book.
Low-Carbon Development • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-9925-5 xv
Acknowledgments
This book is the result of a collaboration of a large number of individuals and
organizations that have provided many different inputs throughout the process
of its preparation.
The contributors to the drafting of the text are as follows.
Introduction, country and sector background, research approach and meth-
ods, and summary of findings and recommendations: Raffaello Cervigni and
John A. Rogers.
Agriculture and land use sector: Louis Bockel, Pierre Luc Sutter, and Ophélie
Touchemoulin (Food and Agriculture Organization, FAO); with Francis Bisong
(consultant).
Oil and gas sector: Huw Martyn Howells (World Bank), Max Henrion
(Lumina Decision Systems) and Gary Howorth (consultant); with Felix Dayo
and Wumi Iledare (Triple E Systems).
Power sector: Max Henrion and Surya Swamy (Lumina Decision Systems);
with Felix Dayo and Asmerom Gilau (Triple E Systems), and Anthony
Adegbulugbe (consultant).
Transport sector: Robin Kaenzig (Integrated Transport Planning Ltd.) and
John A. Rogers; with S. B. Akintayo (consultant).
The following World Bank staff contributed to the writing: Ademola Braimoh,
Stephen Danyo, Erik Magnus Fernstrom, Roger Gorham, Anushika Karunaratne,
Stephen Ling, Manuel Luengo, Brice Quesnel, and Venkata Ramana Putti. The
peer reviewers for the original report were Sameer Akbar, Christophe de
Gouvello, and Todd Johnson. The extended World Bank team included Amos
Abu, Abimbola Adubi, Joseph E. Akpokodje, Irina Dvorak, Jane Ebinger,
Oluwafemi Faleye, Francesca Fusaro, Julie Godin, Ella Omomene Iklaga, Beula
Selvadurai, Shobha Shetty, and Govinda R. Timilsina.
The work was undertaken under the supervision of World Bank managers,
Idah Z. Pswarayi-Riddihough (Sector Manager, Environment, Natural Resources
and Climate Change in Africa); Jamal Saghir (Director, Africa Sustainable
Development Department); and Marie Francoise Marie-Nelly and Onno Ruhl
(respectively, current and former Country Director for Nigeria).
The book was edited by Valerie Ziobro (consultant) based on a previous draft
edited by Max Henrion and Kristin Abkemeier (Lumina Decision Systems).
Irina Dvorak coordinated the inputs from the various authors to the final version
Low-Carbon Development • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-9925-5 xvii
xviii Acknowledgments
of the book. In the World Bank’s Office of the Publisher, Stephen Pazdan
oversaw the book production process and Patricia Katayama handled acquisition
duties.
From the Federal Government of Nigeria, policy guidance was provided by
Hon. Mrs. Hadiza Ibrahim Mailafa (Minister of Environment), and Hon.
Dr. Akinwunmi Ayo Adesina (Minister of Agriculture). The following senior
officials from the Federal Government of Nigeria provided important contribu-
tions: Abubakar Sambo (Director General, Energy Commission of Nigeria,
ECN), Dere Awoshika (Permanent Secretary, Federal Ministry of Power, FMP),
Adera Adejuwon (Director, Department of Climate Change, Federal Ministry
of the Environment, FME), Tim Okon (Group General Manager, Nigerian
National Petroleum Corporation, NNPC), Sam Amadi (Chairman, Nigeria
Energy Regulation Commission), Bahijjahtu Abubakar (National Coordinator
Renewable Energy, FME), and Johnson O. Ojosu (Director, ECN).
In addition, the comments and suggestions made by participants to the final
technical workshop in Abuja in December 2012 are acknowledged. Participants
included: Comfort Owolabi (FME), Belije Madu (Presidential Task Force on
Power), Jonah D. Barde (FME), Taiye Haruna (FME), Akubo Yakubu John
(Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, FMARD), Ade Anda
(Nigeria Integrated Water Resources Management Commission), Okey Osuji
(ExxonMobil Corporation), Festus Eziagbe (Shell Development Corporation),
Azeez Musibau (FMARD), Henry Agbanika (Canadian International
Development Agency), Mikaila Z. Yau (ECN), Habib S. Lamin (ECN), Yunusa
Tukur (ECN), Salisu Hamisu (ECN), Thelma Osuhor (Presidential Task Force on
Power), Napoleon Agbelogode (Chevron Nigeria), M. O. Sule (FMARD),
C. O. Ezinma (FMARD), Njere Emmanuel (FMARD), Ahmed I. Sulaiman
(Federal Ministry of Transport), Kevin Cariuu (French Development Agency),
J. A. Shamonda (Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency, NIHSA), U. B. Mapashi
(NIHSA), Hannah Kabir (Creeds Energy), Mrs. Chioma Njoku (Ministry of
Petroleum Resources, Abuja), Ikyerere Akpeche (FMARD), Okoro Dickson
(Federal Ministry of Petroleum Resources), Ibrahim G. Umaru (Nasarawa State
University, Kogi), Mejeroh Obada (Federal Ministry of Petroleum Resources),
Dere Awosika (Federal Ministry of Power), Asmau Jibril (FME), Adetunji
Oredipe (FMARD), Muideen Salami (Presidential Task Force on Power),
A. Adebia (FMP), and Remi Onabayo (FMP).
Financial support from the following trust funds is gratefully acknowledged:
The Trust Fund for Environmentally and Socially Sustainable Development
(funded by Norway and Finland), TerrAfrica, Africa Renewable Energy and
Access Program (AFREA), and World Bank Energy Sector Management
Assistance Program. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United
Nations co-financed the analysis of low-carbon development in the agriculture
sector.
Low-Carbon Development • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-9925-5
About the Editors
Raffaello Cervigni is a lead environmental economist with the Africa Region of
the World Bank. He holds a master’s in economics from Oxford University and
a PhD in economics from University College London. He has more than 18 years
of professional experience in programs, projects, and research financed by the
World Bank, the Global Environment Facility, the European Union, and the
Italian Government in many sectors. He is currently the World Bank’s regional
coordinator for climate change in the Africa Region, after having served for about
three years in a similar role for the Middle East and North Africa Region. He is
the author or coauthor of over 40 technical papers and publications, including
books, book chapters, and articles in learned journals.
John Allen Rogers is an engineer specializing in low-carbon development model-
ing. As Senior Climate Change Specialist at the World Bank, he has developed
EFFECT, a Visual Basic, Excel-based, bottom-up model of climate-changing
greenhouse gas emissions with associated costs and benefits, that can be applied
to on-road transport as well as to the power sector, industry, nonresidential, and
household electricity consumption. EFFECT is currently used by the World
Bank, the Asian Development Bank, and others in approximately 18 countries.
Before joining the World Bank, Rogers worked for over 20 years as an interna-
tional consultant after a long career in engineering, quality control, and market-
ing with heavy-duty vehicle and diesel engine manufacturers.
Max Henrion is the chief executive officer of Lumina Decision Systems in Los
Gatos, California. He has 30 years of experience as a professor, decision consul-
tant, software designer, and entrepreneur. He has led teams to develop decision
and policy models for clients in government and industry in energy and environ-
ment, aerospace, analytics, and consumer choice. He is the originator of Lumina’s
flagship software product, Analytica. Before founding Lumina, he was an associate
professor at Carnegie Mellon University and vice president of decision technology
at the search engine company, Ask Jeeves. He has a BA in natural sciences from
Cambridge University, a master of design from the Royal College of Art, and a
PhD in operations research from Carnegie Mellon. He is the author or coauthor
of three books, including Uncertainty: A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Policy
and Risk Analysis (Cambridge University Press, 1990), and more than 60 peer-
reviewed articles.
Low-Carbon Development • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-9925-5 xix
Abbreviations
ADPs Agricultural Development Projects
A/F afforestation and reforestation
AFOLU agriculture, forestry, and other land use
AG associated gas (gas produced in association with oil)
ATA Agricultural Transformation Agenda
BAU business-as-usual
bbl barrels of oil
BoI Nigerian Bank of Industry
BRT bus rapid transit
CAIT Climate Analysis Indicators Tool
CBN Central Bank of Nigeria
CCGT combined cycle gas turbine
CCS carbon capture and storage
CDM Clean Development Mechanism
CER certified emissions reduction
CFL compact fluorescent lamp
CGE computable general equilibrium
CNG compressed natural gas
COP Conference of the Parties
CO2 carbon dioxide
CO2e carbon dioxide equivalent
CPS Country Partnership Strategy
CSA climate-smart agriculture
CSIRO Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Organization
CSP concentrated solar power
CTF Clean Technology Fund
DAS Department of Agricultural Sciences
DNI direct normal irradiation
DPR Department for Petroleum Resources
Low-Carbon Development • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-9925-5 xxi
xxii Abbreviations
ECN Energy Commission of Nigeria
EE energy efficiency
Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool
EFFECT
EIA Energy Information Agency
EMT Economic Management Team
ESMAP Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (of the World Bank)
ETS EU Emissions Trading System
EU European Union
Ex Ante Appraisal Carbon-Balance Tool
EX-ACT
FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
FGN Federal Government of Nigeria
FIT feed-in tariff
FMARD Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development
FME Federal Ministry of the Environment
FMP Federal Ministry of Power
FMST Federal Ministry of Science and Technology
FNC First National Communication
GDP gross domestic product
GEF Global Environment Facility
GHG greenhouse gas(es)
GIS geographic information system
GOR gas-to-oil ratio
GPP gross primary productivity
Gt gigaton(s)
GTL gas to liquid
GW gigawatt(s)
GWh gigawatt-hour(s)
GWP global warming potential
IEA International Energy Agency
IFPRI International Food Policy Research Institute
IP investment plan
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
IPP independent power producer
ISCC integrated solar combined cycle
JV joint venture
kt kiloton(s)
kW kilowatt(s)
kWh kilowatt-hour(s)
LCOE levelized cost of electricity
Low-Carbon Development • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-9925-5
Abbreviations xxiii
LNG liquefied natural gas
LPG liquefied petroleum gas
LUC land use change
LULUCF land use, land use change, and forestry
m meter(s)
MAC marginal abatement cost
MDAs ministries, departments, and agencies
MDGs Millennium Development Goals
mln bbl million barrels
MMBtu million British thermal units
MMscf million standard cubic feet
MRV monitoring, reporting, and verification
MSMEs micro, small, and medium enterprises
Mt million metric ton(s)
MW megawatt(s)
MYTO Multi-Year Tariff Order
NAEC Nigerian Atomic Energy Agency
NAG nonassociated gas (gas not produced in association with oil)
NAIP National Agriculture Investment Plan
NAMA Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Action
NBS National Bureau of Statistics (Nigeria)
NERC National Electric Regulatory Commission
NEWMAP Nigeria Erosion and Watershed Management Project
NGC Nigeria Gas Company
NGO nongovernmental organization
NIPCO Nigerian Independent Petroleum Company
NNPC Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation
NPV net present value
O&M operation and maintenance
OCGT open cycle gas turbine
PoAs programs of activities
PPP purchasing power parity
PSCs production sharing contracts
PV photovoltaic
R&D research and development
RE renewable energy
REA Rural Electrification Agency of Nigeria
REC Renewable Energy Certificate
RPS renewable portfolio standards
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xxiv Abbreviations
SAM social accounting matrix
SBSTA Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice
SCGT single cycle gas turbine
SLM sustainable land management
SRI system of rice intensification
SSA Sub-Saharan Africa
T&D transmission and distribution
TCF trillion cubic feet
t CO2e ton of carbon dioxide equivalent
TWh terawatt-hour(s)
UN United Nations
UNDP United Nations Development Programme
UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
USD United States dollars
WAGP West Africa Gas Pipeline
WRI World Resources Institute
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Overview
Main Message: A Low-Carbon Way to Achieve Vision 20: 2020
The Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) has formulated an ambitious strategy,
known as Vision 20: 2020, which aims to make Nigeria the world’s 20th largest
economy by 2020. Sustaining such a pace of growth over a longer term implies
that by 2035 Nigeria would increase electricity generation by a factor of 9, road
freight transport by a factor of 18, and private car ownership by a factor of 3.5.
Domestic agricultural production would need to increase six-fold to meet the
food requirements of a growing population while decreasing dependency on
food imports—an important FGN priority.
Assuming conventional approaches to oil and gas production, electricity
generation and use, transportation, and agriculture, the achievement of these
goals could imply a doubling of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2035.
Cumulative emissions over this period (2010–35) might add up to 11.6 billion
tons of CO2 to the atmosphere—five times the estimated historical emissions
between 1900 and 2005.
This book argues that there are many ways that Nigeria can achieve the Vision
20: 2020 development objectives for 2020 and beyond, but with up to 32 per-
cent lower carbon emissions. A lower carbon path offers not only the global
benefits of reducing contributions to climate change, but also net economic
benefits to Nigeria, estimated at about 2 percent of GDP. These national benefits
include cheaper and more diversified electricity sources, with savings of the order
of 7 percent or US$12 billion; more efficient operation of the oil and gas industry,
with discounted net benefits of US$7.5 billion, more productive and climate-
resilient agriculture; and better transport services, resulting in fuel savings, better
air quality, and reduced congestion. These domestic benefits would be accompa-
nied by a global benefit of avoiding some 2.3 billion tons of CO2e (carbon diox-
ide equivalent) emissions over 25 years. An additional 1.4 billion tons of emission
reductions are technically viable, but would require extra financial incentives to
be economically viable for Nigeria.
While possible and economically attractive, low-carbon development is by
no means easy in Nigeria or anywhere in the world. A combination of better
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2 Overview
knowledge, expanded human capacity, reformed policies, and suitable financing
is needed to overcome the barriers that stand in the way of adopting low-carbon
development options. The FGN can play a catalytic role in getting the transition
under way, but there is little time to waste: once locked into the country’s
economic fabric, higher carbon technologies are costly and impractical to reverse.
The Reference Scenario: Double Carbon Emissions
The reference scenario of growth for Nigeria assumes that no specific effort is
made to adopt low-carbon technologies or management options. It depicts a
plausible path of evolution to 2035 of the four sectors analyzed in this book
(agriculture and land use, oil and gas, power, and road transport), consistent with
overall growth targets defined in Vision 20: 2020 and with relevant sector devel-
opment strategies. Under this scenario, by 2035, the study projects a doubling of
total carbon emissions ( figure O.1), with a radical change in contributions by
sector: agriculture and land use are expected to shrink from over 50 percent to
4 percent of the total; energy-based emissions are projected to grow from 47 to
96 percent, with little change in emissions from oil and gas, but most of the
increase due to the power and transport sectors.
Such a dramatic change in carbon emissions would be a result of the f ollowing:
the slower pace of conversion of forests to cropland, as much of the forested area
has already been cleared in the last couple of decades; rapid expansion of electric-
ity generation (largely from thermal power technologies); and increased demand
for passenger and freight transport needed to support planned GDP growth.
Figure O.1 Reference Scenario: Annual CO2e Emissions to 2035
700
600
500
400
Mt CO2e
300
200
100
0
10
15
20
25
30
35
20
20
20
20
20
20
Power sector Transport Oil and gas Agriculture and land use change
Source: Calculations based on data sources listed in the chapter 3 references.
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Overview 3
Emissions from oil and gas are expected to remain stable in absolute terms: a
decrease from dwindling legacy gas flaring and slightly declining oil production
are expected to balance an increase due to expanding extraction of gas for power
generation and export.
Stabilizing Carbon Emissions
However, a wide range of technologies, practices, and management options could
enable Nigeria to achieve its growth objectives with lower carbon emissions than
in the reference scenario. This book identifies a subset of over 30 such options that
are likely to be particularly attractive in terms of technical, economic, and institu-
tional feasibility. Gradual adoption over time of all the low-carbon options
analyzed would stabilize emissions at around 300 million metric tons of CO2
equivalent (Mt CO2e) per year, slightly above the estimated current level
(figure O.2). It would avoid incurring a total of 3.8 billion Mt CO2 over 25 years.
About 50 percent of the carbon abatement potential is estimated to lie in the
power sector, 20 percent in oil and gas, and the remaining 30 percent split between
agriculture and transport. Key low-carbon options include the following:
• Agriculture and land use: agro-forestry, avoided deforestation, and conserva-
tion agriculture.
• Oil and gas sector: reduction of gas flaring, better management of oil storage,
and enhanced energy efficiency in oil and gas facilities.
Figure O.2 Low-Carbon Scenario: Mitigation Potential and Residual Emissions by Sector
700
600
500
400
Mt CO2e
300
200
100
0
10
15
20
25
30
35
20
20
20
20
20
20
Reference case Oil and gas Agriculture and land use change
Transport Power sector Low-carbon scenario
Source: Calculations based on data sources listed in the chapter 3 references.
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4 Overview
• Electricity sector: energy efficiency (EE) for lighting, renewables (both off-grid
and grid-based) such as photovoltaic (PV), concentrated solar power (CSP), wind,
and hydropower, as well as wider use of combined cycle in gas power plants.
• Transport: fuel efficiency, improved freight management, modal shift of freight
to rail, and use of alternative fuels such as compressed natural gas (CNG).
Economic Benefits of Low-Carbon Strategy
A low-carbon strategy along the lines proposed in this book would position
Nigeria as a regional and international leader on climate action. Yet, the main
reason why low-carbon development makes sense for the country is that it could
generate significant national economic benefits in addition to the global benefit
of avoiding some 3.7 billion tons of CO2e emissions over 25 years. Expressed as
a percentage of cumulative GDP over the study period (2010–35), net domestic
benefits are estimated to be on the order of 2 percent of GDP, compared to costs
on the order of 0.85 percent (table O.1).
In agriculture, adoption of sustainable land management (SLM) practices such
as agroforestry and conservation agriculture is expected to significantly increase
yields with net benefits to farmers in the short and medium term exceeding the
public costs (such as extension) required to encourage their adoption. These tech-
nologies would also enhance farmers’ resilience to climate variability and change.
In oil and gas, the low-carbon strategy includes interventions that would
enable the industry to reduce the cost of operations or reduce the waste of associ-
ated gas (AG), or both, which is a proposition likely to become increasingly
attractive, as new commercially viable opportunities for selling the recouped gas
open up. The capital cost of implementing those interventions is estimated to be
US$17 billion, but with the revenues generated by sale of the gas and associated
liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) saved, the low-carbon scenario is estimated to
generate a positive net present value (NPV) of over US$7.5 billion.
In the power sector, the low-carbon strategy enables Nigeria to achieve growth
objectives consistent with Vision 20: 2020, but with a 15 percent reduction in
power demand, thanks to more efficient use of electricity in the residential sector,
and with lower overall costs of generation. While the capital cost of a greener
energy mix is some 37 percent higher than in the reference scenario, lower
operation and maintenance and, in particular, lower fuel costs result in the total
Table O.1 Low-Carbon Scenario: National Costs and Benefits by Sector (2010–35)
National costs, % of GDP Net national benefits, % of GDP Cumulative GHG
Sector (2010–35) (2010–35) abatement, billion tons CO2e
Agriculture 0.04 0.23 0.65
Oil and gas 0.11 0.26 0.75
Power 0.70 1.40 1.92
Transporta — — 0.45
Total 0.85 1.89 3.77
Source: Calculations based on data sources listed in the chapter 3 references.
Note: — = not available.
a. For the transport sector, data and time limitations prevented a full quantification of national costs and benefits.
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Overview 5
Map O.1 Diversification of Energy Sources in the Low-Carbon Scenario
Source: PVGIS © European Communities, 2001–2012, HelioClim-1 © MINES ParisTech, Centre Energetique et Procedes,
2001–2008, amended and reproduced by the World Bank study team with permission.
Note: Map colors represent Direct Normal Irradiation (DNI), a measure of solar intensity relevant to concentrated solar power
(CSP). The map provides a stylized illustration of the distribution across Nigeria of sources of energy. Oil and gas are
concentrated in the South and offshore; hydropower in central and southern Nigeria; coal deposits in the South and East;
direct solar radiance for CSP in the Northeast (orange areas); good photovoltaic (PV) potential is found in most areas; and
promising wind sites in the North and offshore.
costs for the low-carbon strategy being 7 percent lower than in the reference case.
This finding is robust to a plausible range of different assumptions on the future
evolution of the costs of renewables relative to fossil fuel generation technologies.
In addition, the low-carbon scenario helps reduce the current spatial concentra-
tion of energy production sources (map O.1).
More evenly distributed power generation is an important consideration for
the sector’s development, in terms of energy security and geo-political balance
between the North, the Central belt, and the South of the country.
Although not quantified in this book, the low-carbon strategy is likely to bring
about important monetary and non-monetary benefits in the transport sector as
well. These include reduced health risks resulting from the reduction in vehicular
emissions, particularly in urban areas, lower traffic congestion leading to time
savings in travel and improvement in quality of life, and increased productivity
and competitiveness in the manufacturing and service sectors.
Setting Sector-Specific Priorities
While low-carbon development is an attractive proposition for the country as a
whole, how much of the technical mitigation potential can actually be achieved
at a net gain varies considerably by sector (figure O.3). While in the power and
transport sectors, some 80 percent of total carbon emission reductions have a
negative cost (that is, a benefit), in agriculture and oil and gas the win-win
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6 Overview
Figure O.3 Marginal Abatement Cost Curve for Nigeria, 2010–35
100
50
0
–50
MAC, US$/ton CO2e
–100
–150
–200
–250
–300
–350
–400
10 260 510 760 1,010 1,260 1,510 1,760 2,010 2,260 2,510 2,760 3,010 3,260 3,510 3,760
Cumulative abatement, Mt CO2e
Power Transport Oil and gas Agriculture
Source: Calculations based on data sources listed in the chapter 3 references.
options account for 35 percent and 20 percent, respectively, of their total abate-
ment potential. At the same time, in agriculture, a moderate carbon price of
US$7 per ton CO2e would create sufficient incentives for seizing the sector’s full
mitigation potential. Therefore, sector-specific low-carbon development strate-
gies are needed to adequately focus efforts on activities with the best combina-
tion of carbon abatement and national economic benefits.
A number of challenges and barriers stand in the way of making low-carbon
development a reality. These challenges include information needs, technologies,
institutions/regulations, and financing. But in many cases, barriers to low carbon
are the same as those that prevent conventional development. Regarding data,
for example, while measuring and monitoring carbon emissions is limited at best,
inadequate information problems also plague the monitoring of many of the
sectors’ “core business indicators,” making it difficult to evaluate complementari-
ties or trade-offs between mitigation and development objectives. In the power
sector, for example, data on off-grid generation is very scant. In transport, infor-
mation on the volume, composition, age, and technology mix of the vehicular
fleet is largely inadequate.
Financing is a particularly significant barrier, because many low-carbon
technologies tend to feature higher upfront costs and delayed benefits compared
to the higher-carbon technology they can displace. This is the case for renewable
energy and for several practices of conservation agriculture. Although their net
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Overview 7
benefits are typically larger in the long term than the reference technology, they
are penalized by financial markets biased in favor of short-term returns.
Recommendations
The FGN, in partnership with the states as appropriate, might consider a number
of actions that could help remove the barriers to low-carbon development.
Table O.2 summarizes the main recommendations made here by sector and time
Table O.2 Indicative Targets and Recommendations by Sector and Time Horizon
Recommended actions
Sector Indicative targets (2020–22) Short term Medium term
Cross-sector 1. Assign to the EMT overall policy 1. Define an action plan for the
coordination on low-carbon, collection of data on carbon
climate-resilient development. emissions and data to inform
2. Finalize the NAMA document the design of low-carbon
and submit it to the EMT for policies.
endorsement. 2. Formulate Nigeria’s position on
the reform of carbon markets.
Agriculture By 2020 bring up to 1 million 3. Include in the Agricultural 3. Define procedure and
hectares under triple-win, Transformation Agenda (ATA) screening tools for integrating
SLM practices. support to climate-smart climate considerations into
agriculture demonstration projects. project evaluation.
4. Launch a dedicated research and
extension program on climate-
smart agriculture (CSA).
Oil and gas Reduce the AG flared in joint 5. Launch a program to facilitate the 4. Create an inventory of
venture (JV) operations by cluster-based collection of gas emissions from the sector, and
80% compared to current from flare sites. develop a low-carbon strategy
levels. for the oil and gas industry,
as well as an action plan to
address emissions at oil and
gas facilities.
Power Up to 20% of grid-based 6. Actively develop large-scale 5. Launch an EE initiative on
power generated by renewables (in particular lighting, metering, and
renewable energy sources hydropower plants) with the appliance standards.
(including hydro-power); goal of three major projects
50% of total gas-powered ready for construction with full
generation coming from feasibility studies within the next
combined cycle gas 18–24 months.
turbines (CCGT); and 7. Promote demonstration
20% of all off-grid supply projects on low-carbon off-grid
generated by renewables technologies.
and hybrid systems. 8. Promote investment in CCGT
including through tariffs and tax/
duties exemption.
Transport Reach the goal of 40% 9. Define an action plan to improve 6. Undertake a feasibility
of urban mass transit fuel efficiency and the effectiveness study for adopting CNG as
in 10–15 large cities of the vehicle inspection system. a transport fuel in selected
supplied by formal bus 10. Define an action plan to improve urban areas.
services using large urban the efficiency of freight handling
buses and BRT. and transport.
Note: BRT = bus rapid transit; EMT = Economic Management Team; NAMA = Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Action; triple win = higher yields,
higher climate resilience, reduced carbon emissions.
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8 Overview
horizon, as well as specific targets (for a time horizon of 8–10 years), that might
help provide impetus and direction for action on low carbon in the sectors of
analysis.
Cross-Sector Recommendations
Elevate Decision Making on Low-Carbon Strategies to the Economic
Management Team level
An entity with a cross-sector policy mandate should be charged with the task of
defining climate action policies that will require the concurrence of several line
agencies. Pending a final decision on the proposed National Climate Change
Commission, the FGN might consider assigning to the Economic Management
Team (EMT) the role of overall coordination on policies for low-carbon, climate-
resilient development. Such action would make the technical leadership exerted
so far by the Federal Ministry of the Environment (FME) more effective; the
FME would continue exerting a role of stimulus and liaison with international
climate negotiations.
Complete Nigeria’s Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions
It is also recommended that, using the findings of this book as inputs, the FME
(in consultation with other relevant ministries, departments, and agencies, or
MDAs) expeditiously finalizes Nigeria’s Nationally Appropriate Mitigation
Actions (NAMAs), and, prior to transmission to the UNFCCC, submits the
NAMA document to the EMT for endorsement, in order to ensure high-level
policy relevance and concrete follow-up. It is necessary to articulate Nigeria’s
overall vision and strategy on low-carbon development, both to define an internal
consensus among stakeholders on priority policies and investment for climate
action, and to better position the country within international discussions on
climate agreements and climate finance. The document defining Nigeria’s
NAMAs could be a natural vehicle for this strategy. Once endorsed by the EMT,
the NAMAs could become a key reference document to orient the design and
monitoring of low-carbon policies across sectors.
Improve Data Collection and Analysis
Relevant MDAs in collaboration with the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS)
could define action plans (with specific targets and milestones) to improve the
quantity and quality of data required to design, monitor, and evaluate low-carbon
sector development policies. In many cases, data required for the ordinary devel-
opment of the power, agriculture, transport, and oil and gas sectors will also be
useful for evaluating synergies or trade-offs with low-carbon development. In
addition, the action plans should also contain provisions for measuring and moni-
toring
emissions of GHGs, as these data will most likely be instrumental in
accessing international climate finance.
Increase Awareness on the Benefits of Low-Carbon Development
Improved awareness of the potential benefits accruing from adoption at scale of
low-carbon solutions is essential for ensuring public support for the formulation
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Overview 9
and enactment of the necessary policies. Relevant line ministries could identify
priority topics for public awareness campaigns in their areas of institutional
jurisdiction and earmark resources for supporting them. In addition, effective
communication campaigns should accompany the introduction and roll-out of
specific low-carbon measures (for example, feed-in tariffs), to ensure adequate
uptake by potential beneficiaries.
Formulate Nigeria’s Position on the Reform of Carbon Markets
The study found that Nigeria has the potential to prevent carbon emission for as
much as 3.7 billion tons over 25 years. Even if just a fraction of that potential
could be turned into assets tradable in the carbon markets of the future, the rev-
enue-generating potential could be significant. This should be a sufficient argu-
ment to induce Nigeria to closely monitor the evolution of international
discussions on future carbon markets. In recognition of this, the FME, in partner-
ship with the Ministry of Finance, and in consultation with relevant MDAs, could
formulate a carbon market position paper to be presented to the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) negotiations and other
relevant international forums. Such a paper would discuss how the Clean
Development Mechanism (CDM), and carbon markets more generally, should be
reformed to enable Nigeria to maximize carbon revenues from the mitigation
interventions identified in this book. The paper could also identify a few priorities
for setting up Programs of Activities (PoAs) that could promote the sale of carbon
assets on a programmatic, or sector-wide basis, rather than project by project.
Recommendations for the Agriculture Sector
Promote Research and Extension on Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA)
The Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (FMARD) could
launch a dedicated program on CSA, with individual research lines to be
awarded competitively to institutions included in the National Agricultural
Research System. The program could focus on both development of planning
tools (for example, a CSA atlas) to define and prioritize opportunities for adopt-
ing “triple-win” agricultural options (higher yields, higher climate resilience,
reduced carbon emissions), as well as on the definition of solutions on the ground
that farmers can adopt. Strengthening of research should be accompanied by
suitable measures to improve the effectiveness of extension services, including
through a larger involvement of state governments.
Support Demonstration Projects on CSA Technologies
The government could include in the Agricultural Transformation Agenda (ATA)
a dedicated program to support projects aimed at demonstrating and scaling up
climate-smart production and land management technologies. The proposed
program should focus on a range of areas wide enough to represent Nigeria’s dif-
ferent agro-climatic conditions, including regions particularly vulnerable (in the
North, but also in the Southwest), and on strategic crops and supply chains.
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10 Overview
Define Procedure and Screening Tools for Integrating Climate Considerations
into Project Evaluation
The FMARD could introduce, initially on a pilot basis, screening tools to improve
the ability of investment projects in agriculture to increase climate resilience and
reduce emissions. Eventually such tools could be used to determine preferential
access to technical and financial support.
Recommendations for the Oil and Gas Sector
Launch a Program to Facilitate the Cluster-Based Collection of Gas from
Flare Sites
Because of the high cost of installing gas gathering and processing facilities at
small flare sites, it is recommended that consideration be given to collecting the
small volumes of AG in clusters for processing and export of the dry gas and
LPGs. Opportunities for financing the initiative through a carbon-finance pro-
gram of activities should be explored.
Develop a Low-Carbon Strategy and Action Plan for the Industry
The Ministry of Petroleum Resources and Nigerian National Petroleum
Corporation (NNPC) could consider setting up a joint government-industry
group to develop a low-carbon strategy and action plan for the oil and gas indus-
try, with particular emphasis on actions to seize the potentially large benefits
identified in this book in terms of cost savings and incremental revenues.
Set Up a Sector-Wide Inventory of Emission Sources
The Ministry of Petroleum Resources in collaboration with NNPC could estab-
lish an inventory of GHG emissions to better inform sector plans for low-carbon
development. The inventory would include the status of each GHG source
(age, condition, emission reduction actions already undertaken) and would
prioritize potential emission reduction options.
Recommendations for the Power Sector
Support Grid and Off-Grid Renewable Energy Technologies
The Federal Ministry of Power (FMP) could actively develop large-scale renew-
able energy projects. Hydropower could be an immediate priority, with a pos-
sible goal of having three major hydro projects ready for construction within
18–24 months, with completed feasibility studies (including resettlement,
environmental, and social impact assessments). Feasibility studies for large-
scale wind and CSP plants should also be considered.
Promote Demonstration Projects for Grid and Off-Grid Low-Carbon
Technologies
The FMP could launch a series of demonstration projects to test in different geo-
graphic contexts the viability of both small-scale, off-grid, low-carbon power
systems (including PV, small hydro, wind, and hybrid systems–fossil fuel generator
set/renewables) and larger scale renewable energy plants, such as wind and CSP.
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Overview 11
Both the feasibility studies for large-scale renewable energy projects, as well as
the financing for the demonstration off-grid projects, could be supported by seed
resources already earmarked for this purpose under the World Bank NEWMAP
project (Nigeria Erosion and Watershed Management Project) as well as through
mobilization of additional resources.
Design Incentives Systems for Wider Uptake of Low-Carbon Power
Generation
The FGN could provide incentives for investments in combined cycle gas turbine
(CCGT), including both conversions of existing plants and new builds. This
could be done by amendments to the tariffs (Multi-Year Tariff Order, or MYTO)
for CCGT generators so as to offset the higher capital costs as well as provide tax
and duties exemptions. Some of these incentives could be self-financed through
a small levy on incremental liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports made available
due to the CCGT efficiency savings.
Promote Demand-Side Energy Efficiency
To achieve the large energy (and emission) savings that can accrue from enhanced
efficiency in the residential use of energy, the FMP could consider the following
measures:
• National roll-out of a compact fluorescent and LED light bulbs program;
• Acceleration of consumer metering program; and
• Establishment of efficiency standards for common appliances, including refrig-
erators, air conditioners, and so on, with phase-out of sales of less efficient
appliances. Because most appliances in Nigeria are imported, a “top runner”
program like that of Japan, in which the most efficient model on the market is
used to set future efficiency standards, would also make sense.
Recommendations for the Transport Sector
Define an Action Plan to Improve Fuel Efficiency and the Effectiveness of the
Vehicle Inspection System
The FGN could develop an action plan to gradually close the gap between
Nigerian and European standards on vehicle efficiency and emissions. In parallel,
the application of an effective vehicle inspection and maintenance system in
major cities could be considered to improve vehicle maintenance and reduce
tailpipe and GHG emissions.
Define an Action Plan to Improve the Efficiency of Freight Handling
and Transport
The FGN could define an action plan for improving freight handling and
transport. Such a plan could involve an effective expansion of rail services, road
infrastructure, vehicle technology, logistical planning, and fleet management.
Significant savings (and a reduction in GHG emissions) can be achieved by leap-
frogging into solutions that have proven effective in higher income countries.
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12 Overview
Evaluate the Feasibility of Adopting CNG as a Transport Fuel in Selected
Urban Areas
The FGN in partnership with selected state and local governments could con-
duct an assessment of the feasibility of using CNG as a transport fuel to combat
air quality problems and also reduce GHG emissions. The assessment could be
focused on urban areas located in proximity of gas pipelines.
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Cha p t e r 1
Introduction
The Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) and the World Bank agreed, as part
of the Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) 2010–13, to conduct an analysis of
the implications of climate change for Nigeria’s development agenda.
Challenges and opportunities related to climate risks and adaptation are
addressed in a separate volume, Toward Climate-Resilient Development in Nigeria.
The current volume focuses on low-carbon development. Building on the work
under way on Nigeria’s Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions, the authors
here evaluate opportunities to pursue national development priorities using
technologies and interventions that reduce emissions of greenhouse gases
(GHGs), referred to here as low-carbon options.
Objectives
The objectives of the study were defined through a number of consultations held
in 2010–11 between the World Bank team and several of the FGN ministries,
departments, and agencies (MDAs) and are as follows:
• Develop a reference scenario of development in selected sectors for the next
25 years, based on a solid understanding of the country’s development goals
and sector plans.
• Evaluate the implications of the reference scenario on GHG emissions.
• Identify for the different sectors potential low-carbon options to achieve the
same development objectives of the reference scenario.
• Evaluate the economic merits of low-carbon options and the additional incen-
tives to be provided, or barriers to be removed, to encourage their adoption.
• Support capacity building for low-carbon planning, particularly in the energy
sector.
This analysis offers an analytical platform to assist Nigeria in organizing and
rioritizing efforts toward low-carbon development. Such efforts include pro-
p
moting access to international climate finance, as well as building and expanding
on activities included in the investment plan (IP) submitted in 2010 to the Clean
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14 Introduction
Box 1.1 Nigeria and the Clean Technology Fund
Nigeria has already mobilized efforts to partner with the international community for
supporting low-carbon development, including through the Clean Technology Fund (CTF).
An investment plan (IP) was approved by the CTF trust fund committee in November 2010,
though funds for implementation under this program have only recently become available.
The plan, developed by the FGN in consultation with the World Bank and African
Development Bank Groups, supports the low-carbon growth objectives and priorities
outlined in Nigeria’s First National Communication (FNC) to the UNFCCC. This multi-year IP
identifies transformational programs to be financed by the CTF jointly with the World Bank
Group (including the International Finance Corporation, its private-sector arm) and the
African Development Bank.
The CTF IP for Nigeria was developed before the present low-carbon study was con-
ducted, so it was unable to take advantage of the insights the study helped generate.
Nevertheless, it does take advantage of certain no-regrets options that were apparent
even at the time of IP preparation. The plan contemplates investments of about
US$250 million in two sectors: urban transport and energy efficiency/clean energy
through financial intermediaries. However, at present, funding is available only for partial
implementation.
In Abuja (Federal Capital Territory), the CTF will support development of high-capacity bus
services, such as BRT (bus rapid transit), along a heavily populated corridor outside of the
Central Business District. In Lagos, CTF resources will also support low-carbon transport
initiatives, with specific modalities still being defined. In both cases, however, these projects
would help Nigeria transform its urban transport sector toward a low-carbon trajectory, by
supporting public transport delivery solutions that will reduce the total number of vehicle
kilometers traveled.
The additional insights generated by this book can help Nigeria articulate future plans to
further access international climate finance sources.
Source: Climate Investment Funds 2013.
climateinvestment
Technology Fund (Climate Investment Funds, https://www.
funds.org/cifnet) (box 1.1).
Scope and Limitations
On account of time and resource limitations, it was agreed to focus the analysis
on four sectors: The two sectors that historically have accounted for the largest
share of Nigeria’s carbon emissions—upstream oil and gas and agriculture and
land use change—and on the two sectors expected to exhibit most rapid growth
emissions—electricity power and road transport.
in future
The study did not seek to provide a comprehensive low-carbon plan for any
of the sectors analyzed. Rather, it focused on what are likely to be the main
Low-Carbon Development • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-9925-5
Introduction 15
sources of carbon emissions in each of the sectors in the next two decades and
how they could be adjusted to enhance sustainable development while reduc-
ing GHG emissions.
Each of the four sectors was evaluated for the period 2010–35 using a
bottom-up modeling approach comprising the following analyses:
• The study of agriculture focuses on changes in land use, cropping patterns, and
technology in response to population and economic growth; but it does not
include agro-industry.
• In the oil and gas sector, the focus is on gas flaring, fugitive emissions, on-site
energy generation, and how new fields could structurally change sources of
GHG emissions.
• In the power sector, the analysis looks at the predominant use of off-grid and
captive generation to meet needs for electricity, and how the mix of grid-based
and off-grid supply is likely to evolve to meet a rapidly expanding electricity
demand.
• The transport sector analysis looks exclusively at road transport of goods and
people and the rapid growth in demand for transport services that can be
expected over the 25 years. The study focuses on quantifying a plausible base-
nalyzing qualitatively some interventions that
line (the reference case), and a
could help reduce GHG emissions while delivering co-benefits such as lower-
ing congestion, improving air quality, and reducing travel time.
Costs and benefits of adopting low-carbon development options are evalu-
ated in a partial equilibrium setting, using net present value (NPV) as the
metric of choice. The study team recognized that there may be significant gen-
eral economic equilibrium effects of moving the economy toward a l ow-carbon
pathway, but it was found that the existing Social Accounting Matrices (SAMs)
for Nigeria—the key ingredients for analyzing general equilibrium effects—do
not have the required level of disaggregation across sectors and technologies.
Building a customized SAM would have exceeded the study’s time and
resource limits. While this could be a desirable future extension of this research,
the present analysis provides for the first time in Nigeria a comprehensive over-
view of low-carbon opportunities across multiple sectors, and should provide
insights of relevance both for domestic policy making and for informing
Nigeria’s position in international climate negotiations.
Structure
Chapter 2 provides essential background on the country and the economic
sectors. Chapter 3 describes the analytical approach, providing a summary of
how the scenarios were developed, methods of analysis, models, and the data and
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16 Introduction
general assumptions used. Chapters 4–7 present the analysis and results for each
sector: agriculture and land use, oil and gas, power, and transport, respectively.
Each chapter provides an introduction to the sector and the approach, findings,
and recommendations for options and actions for low-carbon development.
Further details on the analysis of each sector can be found in this book’s com-
panion volume (Cervigni, Rogers, and Dvorak 2013).
Chapter 8 summarizes the key findings across sectors. It describes the main
scenarios that were modeled across all sectors and their implications for GHG
emissions and the economy. It provides general recommendations on how
Nigeria might reconcile national growth objectives with low-carbon develop-
ment using a cross-sector perspective.
References
Cervigni, R., J .A. Rogers, and I. Dvorak. 2013. Assessing Low-Carbon Development in
Nigeria: An Analysis of Four Sectors. Washington, DC: World Bank.
Climate Investment Funds. 2013. “Clean Technology Fund Investment Plan for Nigeria.”
https://www.climateinvestmentfunds.org/cifnet/investment-plan/nigerias-ctf
-investment-plan.
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Cha p t e r 2
Country and Sector Background
The Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) has put forward an ambitious vision
for the country’s economic development by 2020: Nigeria Vision 20: 2020 (FGN
2010). It is a platform for socioeconomic transformation intended to position
Nigeria among the 20 largest economies in the world1 by the year 2020. It
includes a growth target of gross domestic product (GDP) of US$900 billion, or
$4,000 on a per-capita basis (FGN 2010). Achieving these targets would require
a significant acceleration of recent growth rates, which in the last decade aver-
aged 6.4 percent per year, although the rate ramped up to close to 7.9 percent in
2010 (figure 2.1).
To achieve sustainable growth, Vision 20: 2020 projects a significant transfor-
mation of the economy, with rapid expansion of non-oil sectors such as
manufacturing, wholesale and retail trade, telecommunications, construction,
and real estate. It calls for large investment in infrastructure and the strengthen-
ing of reforms to shift investment toward supporting private-sector activities and
increasing the productivity of human capital.
Vision 20: 2020 also projected that while growing at a stable pace, the oil and
gas sector would provide declining contributions to GDP growth, due to
diversification and expansion of other sectors, currently underdeveloped. It is
anticipated that growth in the oil and gas sector will be facilitated by higher
capacity utilization resulting from a reduction of social unrest in the Niger Delta
region, investment in new oil fields, and reforms in the sector.
Much of the progress to be achieved under Vision 20: 2020 will require
significant investment in physical infrastructure, including power, transport,
oil and gas infrastructure, housing, and water resources. Power has been a
particularly serious bottleneck to growth due to inadequate generation
capacity and poor maintenance of the installed capacity. As a result, the FGN
attaches particular emphasis (both in Vision 20: 2020 and in “Roadmap for
Power Sector Reform” [FRN 2010]) to aggressive rehabilitation of power
installations, coupled with an accelerated expansion of electricity generation,
transformation, and distribution networks.
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18 Country and Sector Background
Figure 2.1 Historical Real GDP Growth Rate
percent
12
10
8
Increase in GDP
6
4
2
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: World Bank 2010.
It is important to note that Vision 20: 2020 is not only a road map for eco-
nomic growth, but was also intended to be the foundation of future long-term
sustainable development by giving equal value to these additional three pillars:
• Institutional: to promote responsible leadership, transparency, accountability,
rule of law, and security of lives and property;
• Social: to improve the nation’s prospects for achieving the Millennium
Development Goals (MDGs) and creating employment in a sustainable
manner; and
• Environmental: to halt environmental degradation and promote renewable
energy and climate change mitigation and adaptation.
GHG Emissions: Recent Estimates
The latest estimates of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions available for all
countries, gases, and sectors (WRI 2011) indicate that in per capita terms, Nigeria
stands at about half the world average, in line with others in Sub-Saharan Africa
(SSA) and below middle-income countries such as South Africa, Brazil, and
Mexico (figure 2.2). However, in terms of emissions per unit of GDP, Nigeria
produces more than twice the world average, above all comparator countries
(although not all of them have figures that include emissions from land use
change).
Nigeria’s relatively high rate of emissions per unit of income points to the
importance of evaluating the change of emissions under a scenario of rapid GDP
growth like that projected in Vision 20: 2020. If the carbon intensity of the
economy remains the same as in 2005, achievement of Vision 20: 2020 targets
would entail five- to six-fold growth in emissions by 2030.
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Country and Sector Background 19
Figure 2.2 Emissions in Nigeria and Comparator Countries, 2005
a. Emissions per capita
Brazil
Annex Ia
South Africab
Mexico
non-Annex Ia
Nigeria
Sub-Saharan Africa
Indiab
Kenyab,c
Ghanab,c
0 50 100 150 200 250
Index (World Average = 100)
b. Emissions per unit of GDP
Nigeria
Brazil
Sub-Saharan Africa
non-Annex Ia
South Africab
Kenyab,c
Ghanab,c
Indiab
Mexico
Annex Ia
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Index (World Average = 100)
Source: WRI 2011.
Note: Figures refer to emissions in 2005 of CO2, CH4, N2O, PFCs, HFCs, and SF6, including those from land use change, with
exceptions b and c.
a. Annex I parties are the industrialized countries listed in Annex I to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC); Non-Annex I refers to countries that have ratified or acceded to the UNFCCC that are not included in
Annex I of the Convention.
b. These countries’ emissions do not include those from land use change.
c. These countries’ emissions do not include PFCs, HFCs, and SF6.
However, inspection of World Resources Institute (WRI) Climate Analysis
Indicators Tool (CAIT) data on the sector shares of emissions (which is largely
consistent with Nigeria’s first national communication to the UNFCCC)
indicates that a simple extrapolation of the historical emission trend to the future
is not justified (figure 2.3).
In 2005 over half of the country’s emissions came from agriculture, forestry,
and land use change. According to Vision 20: 2020, the GDP share of agriculture
will decline. Barring vast expansion of the agriculture frontier at the expense
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20 Country and Sector Background
Figure 2.3 Sector Composition of Nigeria GHG Emissions, 2005
percent
Other,
1 Electricity
Manufacturing and and heat,
construction, 4
Waste,
1
4
Transportation,
6
Land use change
and forestry,
35 Upstream
oil and gas,
24
Agriculture,
25
Source: WRI CAIT database.
Note: Contributions to total 1994 GHG emissions are based on the global warming potential (GWP) projected for the next
100 years.
of remaining forests, it is likely that the contribution of these sectors to total
emissions will decrease. Vision 20: 2020 also projects a declining GDP share for
the oil and gas sector, which accounted for a quarter of total emissions in 2005.
On the other hand, a rapid acceleration of GDP growth will need to be s upported
by growth in electricity generation and road transport. Thus their contribution to
total emissions is likely to grow quite significantly from a relatively modest
10 percent share in 2005.
Agriculture and Land Use Change
As Africa’s most populous country, Nigeria faces significant challenges in achiev-
ing food security, poverty reduction, and better natural resources management.
Agriculture currently accounts for close to 40 percent of national income and
almost 70 percent of the working population. While the sector’s contribution to
GDP can be expected to decline in the coming years, its productivity per unit of
land, labor, and water will need to increase considerably to feed a rapidly expand-
ing population. Historically, increased productivity has been generated by con-
verting land such as pastures, forests, bush, wetlands, and woodlands into
cropland, which has resulted in some of the highest rates of deforestation and
land degradation in Africa. Chapter 4 analyzes the carbon balance of the Vision
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Country and Sector Background 21
20: 2020 policy in the agricultural sector under a reference scenario reflecting
current policies, as well as under alternative scenarios intended to represent
low-carbon options.
Oil and Gas Sector
Nigeria has the world’s seventh largest gas reserves, with 187 trillion cubic feet
(TCF) of high-quality proven reserves, of which around half is associated gas
(AG). For years, most of the AG was flared, and the initiatives implemented to
reduce flaring only recently started to produce results. For Nigeria to achieve the
growth targets of Vision 20: 2020, gas must be the engine of growth through
increased industrial and domestic use. However, lack of adequate infrastructure
limits the easy movement of gas from extraction to consumers, and social unrest
in the Niger Delta has discouraged the investment required to upgrade the gas
network.
Chapter 5 evaluates potential options and measures to reduce the GHG
emissions from the oil and gas sector, while at the same time making this energy
source available for more productive usage. The analysis in chapter 6 attempts to
address the barriers that have historically discouraged use of natural gas for
power generation.
Power Sector
While currently a small contributor to energy-related emissions when compared
with the oil and gas sector, electricity supply—both grid-based and captive—is
likely to experience rapid growth in the coming years as the economy strength-
ens and energy demand rises with the improvement in living standards. The
government has given high priority to the development of this sector. In the
context of Nigeria’s Vision 20: 2020, the existing grid-based generation capacity
of about 4,052 megawatts (MW) should increase to 20,000 MW by 2015 and
35,000 MW by 2020. About 78 percent of this capacity today is thermal power
(fuel oil, gas, and coal) and the remainder is hydropower. Besides increasing
power capacity, Vision 20: 2020 seeks to increase access to electricity and
improve demand-side energy efficiency (EE). Chapter 6 discusses the evolution
grid-based and off-grid demand, projects the associated evolution of carbon
of
emissions, and identifies options for providing expansion of electricity access
with a low-carbon footprint.
Transport Sector
In all countries, freight and passenger transport demand—particularly on-
road—increases with growing population and per capita GDP. Up to around
US$4,000 per capita, growth in transport demand tends to exceed GDP
growth, driven principally by the increasing ability of households to own their
own vehicles.
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22 Country and Sector Background
Chapter 7 develops an initial assessment of the expected growth in on-road
freight and passenger activity and evaluates the resulting CO2 emissions under
a normal business-development scenario over the study period. It further identi-
fies interventions at the national and local levels that could help decouple growth
in transport from growth in emissions. A qualitative assessment of the impact of
the proposed measures on other indicators that are of immediate interest to local
stakeholders (congestion, travel time, health, economic development, climate
resilience, and so on) is also included in the analysis. Because of time and funding
limitations, the analysis in this sector did not look in depth at the multiple
alternative development options for both urban and inter-city transport
possibilities, but it identified priority areas for follow-up work.
Note
1. From the 39th largest economy now, in part due to Nigeria’s status as the world’s 8th
most populous country.
References
FGN (Federal Government of Nigeria). 2010. Nigeria Vision 20:2020: The First
NV20:2020 Medium-Term Implementation Plan (2010–2013); Volume 1: The Vision
and Development Priorities. Lagos, Nigeria.
FRN (Federal Republic of Nigeria). 2010. Roadmap for Power Sector Reform. The
Presidency, Presidential Action Committee on Power, Abuja.
World Bank. 2010. World Development Indicators. World Bank, Washington, DC. http://
data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/world-development-indicators.
WRI (World Resources Institute). 2011. Climate Analysis Indicators Tool (CAIT) v. 8.0.
WRI, Washington, DC.
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Cha p t e r 3
Research Approach and Methods
The analysis of each of the four sectors of inquiry is based on a comparison
between a reference scenario and one or more low-carbon scenarios. This chapter
describes how these scenarios were developed and the value of comparing them.
It describes the methods used, including software models for quantitative analy-
sis of each sector, and the use of marginal abatement costs (MACs) to prioritize
low-carbon options. It describes how data were obtained and key assumptions,
including population, gross domestic product (GDP) growth, and other general
assumptions used across sectors. Finally, it outlines the consultative process
followed by the team to engage with Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN)
agencies and other stakeholders in reviewing the data, assumptions, and methods
used to define and evaluate the scenarios.
Comparing Scenarios
The reference scenario was designed as a plausible representation of how the coun-
try’s economy might evolve in the period up to 2035 on the basis of historical
trends and current government plans. It describes a reasonable trajectory for
growth and structural change of the economy in the absence of targeted interven-
tions to reduce carbon emissions. It assumes that future sector development deci-
sions would be made without any specific focus on their climate change impacts
or on their long-term resilience to a changing climate. It uses historical data to
define the activity and resulting emissions in the base year. It takes into account
existing, concrete, feasible investment plans (for example, power stations that are
in the process of being built or are under firm commitment) and attempts to
include the “best-business-decision” investments that could be made in future
years within the constraints and barriers that are present in the economy.
Thus, the reference case is not a mere continuation of current practice, nor is
it always the scenario with the highest greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
Sometimes the “best-business-decision” investments will lead to higher energy
efficiency, greater productivity per unit of energy used, or cleaner energy sources,
even within current constraints and barriers. It follows existing policies and plans
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24 Research Approach and Methods
adopted by the government. For example, the reference scenario for oil and gas
assumes significant reduction in gas flares following flare-reduction agreements
and programs already in place. The reference scenario for electric power assumes
building nuclear power and coal-fired power plants according to current
government policy.
The low-carbon scenarios include technological, institutional, organizational, or
management interventions designed to achieve at least the same development
objectives of the reference scenario, but with lower GHG emissions and some-
times also additional benefits in other areas. Adoption of low-carbon solutions
often will require policy changes to remove constraints and barriers. This process
will necessitate making project financing available to enable changes that would
not otherwise be practical.
Different stakeholders may approach the search for a realistic low-carbon
development pathway from a different angle, illuminating important aspects of
the economics of GHG mitigation and implementation strategies. Choosing
which interventions or policy changes to include in the reference scenario and
which to leave to the low-carbon scenarios is a delicate task crucial to the
soundness of the analysis.
Selecting Low-Carbon Technologies and Interventions
The low-carbon scenario provides a list of low-carbon technologies, also termed
mitigation options or interventions, designed to reduce carbon emissions, relative
to the reference scenario. Examples are: for agriculture, conservation agriculture,
agro-forestry, and sustainable rice intensification; for the oil and gas sector, reduc-
ing flaring of natural gas and using more efficient pumps for oil extraction; for
the power sector, promoting energy-efficient lighting and generating power from
renewables such photovoltaics and wind; and for transport, expanding bus rapid
transit and tightening standards of fuel e fficiency for road vehicles.
The study team considered a wide range of such mitigation options for each
of the four sectors. They then evaluated each candidate option using the following
criteria:
• Potential resource availability, such as the area of land affected or solar intensity
for photovoltaics, in order to provide a rough estimate of the magnitude of the
potential emissions reduction. The study selected only those options with the
potential to have a substantial overall effect in Nigeria, ignoring some that,
though beneficial, have only modest or local effects.
• Technical-economic analysis to estimate the technical and economic feasibility,
comparing costs and emissions of each low-carbon option to a reference
technology that it replaces or supplements.
• Implementation feasibility in institutional, market, and policy terms, which
took into account feedback of sectoral experts, public and private sector stake-
holders, and members of civil society. It entailed identifying potential barriers to
implementation and measures and policies to remove those barriers.
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Research Approach and Methods 25
As result of this process, the team selected some 30 options for inclusion in
the low-carbon scenario, described in more detail for each sector in chapters 4–7
and summarized in chapter 8.
The Purpose of Scenario Modeling
Comparing the reference and low-carbon scenarios clarifies the relative costs,
GHG emissions levels, and other economic, environmental, and social impacts of
selected low-carbon options. It illuminates the potential tradeoffs when
economic and environmental objectives are in conflict, and sometimes helps
identify appealing “win-win” options that may reduce both costs and GHG
emissions.
Like the reference scenario, the low-carbon scenario is not a prediction of
what will happen. That would be impossible. Nor is it a recommendation of what
should happen. Those choices will be made by the people of Nigeria and their
government. The scenarios are intended as possible futures, indications of what
could happen, consistent with the laws of physics, economics, and applicable laws
and regulations. They are intended to illuminate and stimulate discussion about
which paths are more desirable and what policies should be adopted to reach
them.
Scenario modeling is a useful way to forge a consensus among stakeholders on
what a plausible sector development pathway might look like, in the absence
(reference case), or in the presence (low-carbon case) of dedicated efforts to
reduce carbon emissions. By providing a structured and transparent framework
to organize information, modeling helps understand where a country or sector—
energy, transport, land use, agriculture, forestry, and oil and gas—currently stands,
the direction in which it is developing, the impact on GHG emissions, and the
resources needed for abatement.
Analysis Methods
A Bottom-Up Approach
This study uses a bottom-up approach to modeling low-carbon pathways: It uses
engineering-style models to analyze micro-level activity and the impacts of a
variety of specific abatement or policy options. It examines the ownership and
use of energy-consuming devices, considering efficiency from an engineering
point of view. Its output could be used by a top-down model, typically a
computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, to evaluate feedback effects from
adjustment in prices and the impact of each package of policy options on
employment, taxes, and GDP growth.
A key advantage of the bottom-up approach is that it allows the assessment
of efficiency scenarios based on other sector-specific pieces of information or
modeling outputs. For example, in the case of road transport, it allows compari-
son of vehicle ownership, technology, usage, and modal shift to other means of
transport as well as the impact of other economic, demographic, and geographic
factors.
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26 Research Approach and Methods
Modeling Tools
The study used several bottom-up modeling tools. The power and transport
sectors used the Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool
(EFFECT) model developed by the World Bank Energy Sector Management
Assistance Program (ESMAP). EFFECT is a user-friendly, Excel-based, bottom-up,
engineering-style model that was originally developed for the India carbon
low-
development program and has since been used in many other countries. EFFECT
is freely available on the Internet, with extensive training accessible online. The
study team for the power sector developed a model in Analytica1 to supplement
EFFECT to address elements not adequately addressed in EFFECT, including
off-grid generation in four categories; energy efficiency options on- and off-grid;
the changing future costs of fossil fuel and renewable energy technologies; total
costs separating capital, operating and maintenance, and fuel costs; display of
MAC curves; and more extensive sensitivity analysis.
EFFECT did not offer the level of detail required to analyze Nigeria’s oil and
gas upstream emissions, so the study team developed a new model in Analytica
to evaluate this. This model is designed to work with the power sector model
using EFFECT and Analytica to represent linkages between the future gas supply
and its use in generating electricity.
The impact of land use change and agriculture on the country’s net GHG
emissions resulting from calculations in both the reference case and low-carbon
scenarios were estimated using EX-ACT (Ex Ante Appraisal Carbon-Balance
Tool) developed by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization
(FAO). The tool, which is based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) 2006 methodology, enables comparison of emissions between
scenarios involving different land use and management choices.
Marginal Abatement Cost Curves
The two models generated MAC estimates to assist in the evaluation of GHG
abatement measures (low-carbon options). The MAC evaluates and ranks
individual GHG abatement measures according to their incremental
cost-effectiveness—that is, the present value of costs to avoid (abate) 1 ton of
carbon dioxide equivalent (t CO2e) of GHGs emitted as an addition to the
stock2 in the atmosphere, relative to a reference technology. Emissions other than
carbon dioxide are converted to carbon dioxide equivalent based on their relative
contribution to greenhouse warming.3
The MAC (equation 3.1) is thus defined over any given period or point in
time t as:
Ct′ − Ct
MACt = (3.1)
Et − Et′
Here, Et = level of emissions in the baseline scenario; Et′ = level of emissions
associated with the low-carbon intervention; Ct = the net present value
(NPV) of the cash flow associated with E; Ct′ = NPV of the cash flow associ-
ated with Et′.
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Research Approach and Methods 27
Figure 3.1 Marginal Abatement Cost Curve for the Power Sector
100
50
0
–50
US$/ton CO2e
–100
–150
–200
–250
–300
–350
–400
10 260 510 760 1010 1260 1510 1760
Cumulative mitigation potential, Mt CO2e
Energy efficiency Low-carbon fossil fuel Others
Off-grid renewables On-grid renewables
Source: Calculations based on data sources listed in the references at the end of this chapter.
GHG emissions are not discounted over time because the timing of GHG
emissions does not affect the calculations of differences in GHG emissions
between two scenarios. Costs, however, are discounted over time to reflect the
higher relative cost of near-term expenditures relative to longer term expendi-
tures, using a discount rate throughout this analysis of 10 percent per year.
Combining the MAC data with the mitigation potential of each intervention
cenarios)
(the difference in total emissions between the low-carbon and reference s
and ordering these from lowest to highest marginal cost allows the MAC curve to
be drawn. Figure 3.1 shows a typical MAC curve that ranks the cost-effectiveness
of abatement options (y-axis) against the number of tons abated (x-axis).
Sources of Data and Key Assumptions
This kind of quantitative analysis, comparison of scenarios, and estimation of
MAC curves is data-intensive. It required significant effort (6–12 months) to
gather and verify historical data inputs. This effort should be viewed as an
investment for the future, with data flows being designed to support future
monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) needs; the tracking of real-time,
on-the-ground GHG abatement efforts; and the maintenance of an updated,
sector-by-sector, dynamic baseline against which GHG mitigation can be
measured. In some cases, desired data or even forecasts were not available. In
these cases, the team developed a set of coherent assumptions.
Data Sources
Both reference and low-carbon scenarios were based on data from Nigerian
sources—official statistics and administrative records. Much of this data was
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28 Research Approach and Methods
enerously provided by agencies of the FGN. Other data were obtained from the
g
World Bank and other international agencies. Where Nigeria-specific data were
inadequate or not available, the study team often used data from comparable
countries, such as the relationship between per capita demand for electric power
and transportation as a function of income per capita.
This book draws on a large body of supporting material, including the sector
background reports in this book’s companion volume, Assessing Low-Carbon
Development in Nigeria: An Analysis of Four Sectors (Cervigni, Rogers, and
Dvorak 2013), and a range of other low-carbon studies and supporting papers.
The national and international sources of data used as inputs for all the model-
ing work undertaken in the rest of this book are listed in the reference section
at the end of this chapter.
Economic Growth
Two key projections used as inputs in the study are Nigeria’s GDP and its popu-
lation through the modeling horizon of 2035. These drive the domestic demand for
fuel, power, food, and transport. This section outlines these and other general
assumptions.
The analysis is based on a conservative assumption that the economic growth
targets of Vision 20: 2020 could be met, but with a slippage of five years from
their originally proposed dates (figure 3.2). Even so, this results in a fairly aggres-
sive rate of GDP growth of 9 percent per year through 2025, followed by 6
percent growth to 2035 (Vision 20: 2020 assumes a 13 percent annual GDP
growth through 2020). Since achieving this economic and social development is
the greatest challenge that the country faces, the researchers took care in the
analysis to only propose changes (from the reference to the low-carbon scenar-
ios) that would be consistent with meeting these objectives. Figure 3.2 also
Figure 3.2 GDP Evolution under Vision 20: 2020 and the Reference Scenario
250
225
200
GDP, trillions of naira
175
150
125
100
75
50
25
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Vision 20: 2020 High growth Medium growth
Source: FGN 2010 and team calculations.
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Research Approach and Methods 29
shows a “medium growth” scenario assuming a consistent 6 percent/year growth
rate, used for sensitivity analysis.
Population
Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa, with about 155 million people in
2011, about one-sixth of the entire continent. Population projections of the UN
World Population Prospects (UN 2010) assume growth rates of 2.53 percent in
2010 that slowly decrease to 2.2 percent by 2035. However, the short-term
growth rate projection has been recently increased to 3.2 percent, which results
in an estimated population of 293 million by 2035.
Nigeria’s population is comparatively young, with 55 percent of the popula-
tion under 20 in the base year. In the future, high birth rates are projected to help
to retain a relatively youthful population over the forecast period; by 2050,
44 percent of the population is expected to be under 20, as shown in figure 3.3.
Figure 3.3 Nigeria Population Pyramids for 2010 and 2050
a. Nigeria population, 2010
105
100
90
80
70
60
Age groups
50
40
30
20
10
0
20 10 0 10 20
Males Females
Population (million people)
figure continues next page
Low-Carbon Development • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-9925-5
30 Research Approach and Methods
Figure 3.3 Nigeria Population Pyramids for 2010 and 2050 (continued)
b. Nigeria projected population, 2050
105
100
90
80
70
60
Age groups
50
40
30
20
10
0
20 10 0 10 20
Males Females
Population (million people)
Source: UN 2010.
Other General Assumptions
General assumptions used across several or all sectors are as follows (sector-specific
assumptions are described in chapters 4–7):
• The analysis was conducted over a 25-year period from 2010 to 2035. It ignores
potential emissions and costs or savings of options beyond the study time
horizon of 2035.
• Marginal abatement costs assume a 10 percent per year discount on costs and
no discount on emissions, as described earlier.
• The study evaluates costs and benefits in a partial equilibrium setting, with no
attempt to capture the indirect, general equilibrium effects of adopting
low-carbon technologies or management practices.
• Consistent with the bottom-up effect, the study ignores possible rebound
effects—for example, changes that increase energy efficiency leading to lower
Low-Carbon Development • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-9925-5
Research Approach and Methods 31
unit costs for a service (for example, lighting or travel) that might increase
consumption of that service.
• The study ignores major future impacts of climate change on each sector—for
example, reduced rainfall reducing availability of hydropower, or more severe
storms affecting coastal areas. Some of these impacts are analyzed in a separate
World Bank study for Nigeria (Cervigni, Valentini, and Santini 2013).
• Land use analysis assumes a 15-year implementation period for land manage-
ment changes and a 10-year capitalization period during which no further land
management changes are considered, but the emissions effects flowing from
the earlier changes are assessed.
• In projecting demand for electricity and transportation, the study assumes that
future per capita demand in Nigeria will grow according to its projected growth
in per capita income, corresponding to average trend lines for other countries
with similar per capita income. The reference scenario assumes that Nigeria
will follow a path similar to those followed by other developing countries, not
substantially changed by the introduction of new technologies or practices.
• Where there was insufficient data or resources to estimate Nigeria-specific
MACs for selected low-carbon options—for example, for several transport
options or for the potential savings from energy efficiency—the study used
estimates from other developing countries.
Consultations with the Nigerian Government and Other Stakeholders
The teams responsible for each of the four sectors held a series of consultative
workshops in Abuja with staff and officials from key ministries, as well as stake-
holders from private industry, universities, and nongovernmental organizations
(NGOs). Teams also arranged bilateral meetings with individuals and groups
from FGN agencies and other stakeholders in Abuja and Lagos to obtain data;
review data, assumptions, and methods; and draft scenarios and results. The goals
were to engage stakeholders in the process, obtain feedback, and identify
low-carbon options, existing policies and programs, and institutional initiatives of
interest to stakeholders to be considered by the study. These workshops and
meetings provided the teams with extensive feedback from participants leading
to numerous revisions and improvements in the analyses. In the case of the
power sector analysis, several working sessions were convened by the Energy
Commission of Nigeria (ECN) where the study team and Nigerian experts
conducted hands-on interaction on the modeling tools to come up with a shared
understanding of the model’s inputs and a consensus on plausible results.
Notes
1. Analytica is a general modeling tool using visual influence diagrams, available from
Lumina Decision Systems (http://www.lumina.com/).
2. Given the study’s relatively short time horizon when compared to the permanence of
CO2 in the atmosphere, the long-term climate change impact of GHG emissions is
Low-Carbon Development • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-9925-5
32 Research Approach and Methods
dependent on the stock of GHGs placed in the atmosphere by the end of the study
period, rather than annual flows, and this is used for the purpose of computing
marginal abatement costs (MACs).
3. For example, methane, the main constituent of natural gas, has about 23 times
the warming potential of carbon dioxide per molecule.
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Maintenance Considerations.” GE Energy Services, Atlanta, GA. http://www
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Control.” Emerson Controls, ISA Transactions 25 (4): 13–21.
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———. 2011b. “Growth Projections in Nigeria’s Oil and Gas Sector.” Paper presented at
Oil & Gas Sector Low-Carbon Workshop, Abuja, June 14.
———. 2011c. “Nigerian Gas Master Plan Status Update.” Paper presented at Oil & Gas
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Rahmen, M. M., T. K. Ibrahim, and A. N. Abdalla. 2011. “Thermodynamic Performance
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USEPA (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency). 1996a. Methane Emissions from the
Natural Gas Industry, vol. 9: Underground Pipelines. Natural Risk Management
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———. 1996b. Methane Emissions from the Natural Gas Industry, vol. 7: Blow-down and
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———. 1999. US Methane Emissions 1990–2010: Inventories, Projections, and Opportunities
for Reductions. Washington, DC.
———. 2003. “Lesson Learned: Directed Inspection and Maintenance at Gas Processing
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Cha p t e r 4
Agriculture and Land Use Sector
Agriculture is a key economic sector: it currently contributes close to 40 percent
of national income and almost 70 percent of employment (CBN 2002; World
Bank 2007) and features prominently in the country’s development plans.
In Vision 20: 2020, the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) has laid out
ambitious targets to increase the domestic agricultural production six-fold by
2020 through reduction in post-harvest losses, increased yields, and stabilization
of cropland expansion. The overall objectives are to achieve food security and to
fight poverty. Figure 4.1 illustrates the phased approach to achieving this goal.
The agriculture targets under Vision 20: 2020 are ambitious and arguably
subject to many uncertainties. This study does not try to evaluate the feasibility
of these targets. Use of the reference scenario does not represent an endorse-
ment by the World Bank of the land use changes (including deforestation),
which may be associated with meeting the Vision 20: 2020 targets. Instead, the
objective of the analysis is to investigate whether those targets could be achieved
with lower net carbon emissions, and at what cost to farmers and to the
government. Thus, it uses the
reference scenario as a basis of comparison to a
low-carbon alternative.
The results of this analysis—the first of its kind in Nigeria—should be consid-
ered as a first approximation of the potential for low-carbon development in the
Nigerian agriculture sector. The study aims to provide policy makers with an
order-of-magnitude estimate of mitigation potential as well as an understanding
of the value of dedicating further efforts, including through s pecific projects, at
pursuing low-carbon development in agriculture; however, it is not meant to
inform the design of specific, project-level interventions.
In consultation with government officials and other Nigerian experts, the
team agreed to adopt a more conservative assumption than the Vision 20: 2020
targets—including a six-fold increase in agricultural productivity—which would
be met by 2025 rather than 2020. Both scenarios therefore start in the year 2010
and span a 15-year implementation phase in which aggressive investments are
made to achieve sector development targets, and a 10-year capitalization phase,
in which benefits of those investments continue to accrue.
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38 Agriculture and Land Use Sector
Figure 4.1 Implementation of the Nigeria Vision 20: 2020 Road Map
Short term Medium term Long term
2010–12 2013–15 2016–20
Sectoral Accelerated Sustained
repositioning growth development
• Double increase in the • 3-fold increase in • 6-fold increase in
productivity of produce productivity of produce productivity of produce
(crops, livestock, fish) • Reduce food imports • Substantially managed
by 50% agricultural system
• Reduction in post-harvest • Irrigation of cultivable
loss to less than 30% land to 10% • Fully digital, green, and
• Contribute 30% of FOREX biotechnology-driven
• Greater value addition agriculture
through processing earnings
• Reduction in post-harvest • Contribute 50% of FOREX
• Lower food imports by 50% loss by 50% earnings
Source: Design based on FGN 2009.
Note: FOREX = Foreign Exchange.
Agricultural Growth Model
A simple growth model was used to estimate the magnitude of annual and peren-
nial crop expansion, consistent with the Vision 20: 2020 targets.1 More detailed
land use and technology change models were then constructed within the overall
growth parameter in order to calculate emissions. The detailed assumptions used
in the modeling drew from discussions among experts from the government,
Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), and World Bank staff to define key
parameters, including the distributions of secondary forests, pastureland, degraded
lands, and other lands, taking into account a spatial analysis of soil quality, slope,
and other suitability factors for cultivation. The model accounts for growth via
three factors:
• Cropland expansion: The annual rate of cropland expansion is assumed to
decline from 2.3 to 0.8 percent linearly, resulting in a compound mean annual
growth rate of 1.6 percent for 2010–25. Thereafter, the rate of expansion
remains at 0.8 percent per year.
• Yield growth: Average crop yields (per unit area of cropland) are estimated to
grow by 3 percent per annum for the first two years and then by 5 percent for
the next three years through investments in improved agronomic practices,
such as adoption of improved seeds and fertilization, and based on national
yield responses to similar investments in Asian countries. Thereafter, a
percent annual growth rate was assumed for the rest of the modeling period,
4
since shorter fallow periods will decrease soil organic content, thus limiting
the yield growth.
• Annual growth due to the reduction of post-harvest loss: Post-harvest loss is
currently estimated at 33 percent of production. The Vision 20: 2020 strategy
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Agriculture and Land Use Sector 39
aims to reduce it by 50 percent by 2015 and 90 percent by 2020. The growth
model assumes more conservatively that the 90 percent target will be reached
by 2025, via a linear 6 percent decrease per annum in the rate of post-harvest
loss. This is equivalent to an annualized compound growth rate of the volume
of agricultural production reaching market of 2.5 percent during 2010–25.
After 2025, reductions in post-harvest losses are assumed to take place at a
slower pace (less than 1 percent per year).
The assumptions and results of the growth model are illustrated, respectively,
in table 4.1 and figure 4.2.
Land Use Changes
Land use changes are expected to contribute to greenhouse gas (GHG) emis-
sions, albeit at a decreasing rate, particularly through conversion of forests,
Table 4.1 Agricultural Growth Model for the Reference Scenario
Type of growth Average 2010–25 (%) Average 2026–35 (%)
Annual cropland expansion 1.6 0.8
Annual yield growth 4.1 4.0
Annual growth due to post-harvest loss reduction 2.5 0.3
Total supply growth 8.3 4.9
Source: Calculations based on data sources listed in the chapter 3 references.
Figure 4.2 Reference Scenario: Relative Contributions to Total Production Increase
6
5
Production index (2010 = 1)
4
3
2
1
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Post-harvest loss reduction Yield increase Area increase
Source: Calculations based on data sources listed in the chapter 3 references.
Low-Carbon Development • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-9925-5
40 Agriculture and Land Use Sector
grasslands (that is, pasturelands that also contribute to agriculture sector output),
fallow acreage, and other lands to cropland. In accordance with government poli-
cies, land use changes are assumed to predominantly take place from 2010 to
2025. After 2025, land use patterns notionally follow the same trends as in earlier
years of the growth model, but only the land use changes until 2025 are counted
in the calculation of emissions.
Conversion of forest to agricultural lands was assumed to affect only s econdary
forests. A geographic information system (GIS)-based evaluation of the suitabil-
ity of secondary forests for agricultural conversion was undertaken based on
current land use (map 4.1), slope, and soil quality. Secondary forest areas were
considered suitable for conversion if categorized as “partly with constraints” or as
a higher suitability class. The results of the exercise are shown in map 4.2, which
indicates that over 3 million hectares of existing secondary forest could be
converted to agriculture.
Figure 4.3 illustrates the change in land use over time and table 4.2 indicates
the amounts of land used in 2010 and 2035. Overall, as of 2025 forest land
shrinks by more than 50 percent, and annuals and perennials increase by a factor
of 1.3. Grassland and other land remain quite stable or are slightly reduced. In
2010, crops (annual, perennial, rice) account for 46 percent of the total country
area, forests 10 percent, pasturelands 20 percent, and the rest (degraded land,
fallow, other) 23 percent. In 2025 crops are projected to account for 61 percent
of total land area. Forests will shrink to 5 percent. Pasturelands remain stable at
about 19 percent. From 2025, the crops expansion slows down, and in 2035
Map 4.1 Agricultural Land Use Map
Source: FAO GeoNetwork Database; World Bank 2007–2011.
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Agriculture and Land Use Sector 41
Map 4.2 Land Suitable for Agricultural Use
Source: FAO GeoNetwork Database; World Bank 2007–2011.
crops account for 68 percent of the total country area, forest for 3 percent,
pasturelands for 17 percent, and other lands for 12 percent.
Sector Investments and Technological Change
The reference scenario assumes that the Vision 20: 2020 goal of increasing the
share of improved crop cultivars, fish, and livestock breeds (50 percent of
the total) will be met by 2025 (via linear growth), and that, where applied, these
improved varieties will be accompanied by better management, namely, use of
suitable fertilizers and no residue burning for crops, and improved breeding and
feeding practices for livestock. Livestock numbers increase steadily at the same
rate as for 2000 to 2010.
The government target to expand irrigation from 1 percent of cultivated area
in 2010 to 25 percent in 2020 is assumed to be reached only in 2035. Hence in
2025, 15.8 percent of the cropland will be irrigated. All the irrigated area will be
managed with improved water efficiency. Degraded lands converted to pasture-
lands will be improved with organic and inorganic fertilizers and managed
without fire to allow recovery of soil fertility.
It is assumed that 6,000 kilometers of roads will be constructed to improve
market access to remote areas. The proportion of tractor-ploughed arable
land will rise from about 8.5 to 50 percent by 2025. Assumptions regarding
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42 Agriculture and Land Use Sector
Figure 4.3 Land Use Evolution for the Reference Scenario, 2010–35
100
90
80
Percentage of share in total land use
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034
Other land Forests (primary, secondary and plantation)
Fallow Paddy rice
Degraded land Perennials
Pasturelands Annuals
Source: Calculations based on data sources listed in the chapter 3 references.
Table 4.2 Land Use in 2010 and 2035 for the Reference Scenario
hectares, millions
Land use 2010 2035
Annuals 34.44 46.16
Perennials 6.55 12.42
Flooded rice 1.31 2.92
Forests 9.10 2.70
Secondary forests 8.80 1.80
Plantations 0.30 0.90
Live fencing/agroforestry . .
Pastureland 18.63 15.67
Degraded lands 1.85 .
Fallows 6.23 2.08
Other lands 12.94 9.10
Total 91.05 91.05
Source: Calculations based on data sources listed in the chapter 3 references.
Note: (.) = negligible.
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Agriculture and Land Use Sector 43
the expansion of processing and storage infrastructure were derived from Vision
20: 2020 plans to strengthen agricultural export markets.
Reference Scenario Emissions
GHG emissions were calculated from 2010 to 2035 for land use changes and
other factors that take place up to 2025—that is, the emissions consequences of
agricultural development up to 2025 is being estimated, with allowance for a
10-year capitalization period thereafter, but further sectoral changes after 2025
are not included in the calculation.
While emissions decrease over time, agriculture remains a net source of GHG
in the reference scenario, and emits about 2.7 billion tons of carbon dioxide
equivalent (t CO2e) during the entire period from 2010 to 2035 (that is, an aver-
age of 1.2 t CO2e/hectare/yr). Annual emissions reach 25 million metric tons
(Mt) CO2e from an initial 161 Mt CO2e in 2010. Table 4.3 shows total annual
emissions at the beginning (2010) and end (2035) of the simulation period, and
figure 4.4 illustrates the overall net emissions pathway and the evolution over
time of the four main emissions categories:
• Crops including annuals, perennials, and paddy rice;
• Land use changes that occur as a result of deforestation, afforestation, or
non-forest land use change;
• Livestock and pasturelands; and
• Agricultural inputs that involve GHG emissions associated with fertilizer
consumption, infrastructure construction, and fuel consumption.
The main reason for this improvement is a reduction in emissions from land
use change, as land use patterns stabilize and in particular deforestation is halted,
although 50 percent of secondary forest area is still lost by the end of the model-
ing period, leaving only 3 percent of secondary forest coverage for the country in
2035. Over this period pasturelands (−16 percent compared to 2010), fallow
(−67 percent) and other land classes (−30 percent) are also reduced to make
room for cropland expansion (+45 percent). However, because croplands are
better managed with less use of fire on perennial plantations, and with improved
seeds and water management on irrigated surfaces, they provide a net sink
of −44 Mt CO2e/year by 2035. The results show that by improving land
Table 4.3 Reference Scenario: Annual GHG Emissions in 2010 and 2035
Mt CO2e/year
Activities 2010 2035 Difference (%)
Land use changes 127.1 15.6 −88
Crops −9.4 −43.6 −364
Livestock and grassland 42.4 46.4 +10
Inputs 0.6 6.7 +1,068
Total 160.6 25.2 −84
Source: Calculations based on data sources listed in the chapter 3 references.
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44 Agriculture and Land Use Sector
Figure 4.4 Evolution of the Annual Emissions in the Reference Scenario by Agricultural Activity, 2010–35
220
210
200
190
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
Mt Co2e
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
–10
–20
–30
–40
–50
–60
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
31
33
35
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Livestock and grassland Crops (annual, perennial, wet rice)
Land use changes Total net emissions
Inputs (fertilizers, infrastructures)
Source: Calculations based on data sources listed in the chapter 3 references.
management to meet the ambitious Vision 20: 2020 growth targets, significant
reductions in GHG emissions are already achieved, but further improvements
are possible. Roughly two-thirds of the emissions are due to land use changes, and
one-third come from livestock; therefore, these activities should be the focus for
improvements under the low-carbon scenarios.
Low-Carbon Scenarios
Mitigation Options
The low-carbon scenarios include additional investments aimed specifically at
reducing the net GHG emissions from the sector. The mitigation options reflect
international experience (box 4.1) in proven sustainable land management (SLM)
practices. The following mitigations options can be considered for a griculture,
livestock, and forestry, and may be interlinked:
• Conservation agriculture aims to increase yields and environmental benefits
through improved management of soil and water resources. Key agronomic
practices include crop rotation/intercropping, minimal turning of the soil
(minimum or no tillage), and maintenance of soil cover through cover cropping
or mulching or both. However, the availability of mulch material (for
example, crop residues, cut vegetation, manure, compost, and by-products of
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Agriculture and Land Use Sector 45
Box 4.1 Conservation Agriculture in Brazil and Zambia
Conservation agriculture first emerged in the 1930s during the severe dust storms in the
United States. It has been gaining momentum worldwide since the 1990s when it was
employed to deal with soil erosion crises in southern Brazil. Its use is now widespread globally.
By 2007, for example, zero-tillage practices were in use on about 43 percent of arable land in
Latin America (World Bank 2012). In Brazil, conservation agriculture relies on a variety of tech-
nologies, depending on the region. For example, one popular approach supports a mixed live-
stock and crop system, rotating pastures with crops.
The zero-tillage system supplies cheap nutrients from residues to pasture, thereby reduc-
ing pests, weeds, and diseases. The most common rotation cycles include soybeans, cotton,
and maize, followed by 1–3 years of pasture. These practices have increased pasture stocking
rates and have reduced soil degradation and water runoff.
In Zambia, five basic conservation farming technologies are being used: retaining crop
residues, concentrating tillage and fertilizer application in a permanent grid of planting basins
or series of planting rows, completing land preparation in the dry season, weeding aggres-
sively to reduce plant competition, and intercropping or rotating nitrogen-fixing legumes on
up to 30 percent of cultivated area. Many farmers also incorporate nitrogen-fixing trees, which
provide fodder and fuel-wood.
As of 2010, Zambia had restored 300,000 hectares in an effort that involved more than
160,000 households. Conservation agriculture practices doubled maize yields over those
achieved with conventional plowing systems and increased cotton yields by 60 percent.
A recent study finds returns of US$104 per hectare for plots under conservation agriculture
in Zambia—5.5 times the $19 per hectare of plots under conventional tillage.
Source: FAO 2010.
agro-industries) is typically lower in semi-arid regions, which cover a significant
part of Nigeria. Conservation agriculture could also facilitate another major
mitigation option—avoidance of deforestation—as increased yield can reduce
the need to convert additional forest areas to cropland (for the same overall
production targets). This approach offers the opportunity to maintain vegeta-
tion cover (including secondary forests, live fences, agro-forestry) over an area
equivalent to the one currently forested.
• Agroforestry refers to land use systems in which woody perennials are
integrated with crops, animals, or both, on the same land management unit,
including agro-silvicultural systems (intercropping, alley cropping), silvo-
pastoral systems (fodder banks, live fences, trees and shrubs on pasture), and
intermixtures. Agroforestry may also contribute to conservation agriculture by
providing mulch.
• Methane emissions from rice paddy fields can be reduced by adopting
sustainable rice practices, which involve modifying the growing environment
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46 Agriculture and Land Use Sector
so that the rice plants can grow better, with more economical use of inputs. For
instance, instead of flooding the rice paddy, seedlings are planted in dry soils
that are watered periodically. Seedlings are also spaced more widely, to allow
for regular soil aeration and weeding as the plants develop.
• Livestock emissions from enteric fermentation and manure can be reduced by
adopting better feeding and breeding practices, and can even be offset by seques-
tering carbon in the biomass and soil of pasturelands. Improved rangeland
management may involve rotational grazing, reduction of fire use, application
of fertilizers or manure, irrigation, improved grass varieties, association with
legumes, and so on. Sustainable rangeland management should also result in
lower stocking densities.
Implementing these options would involve both public and private costs.
Public costs are incurred through provision of government support for each
option, for example, in the forms of provision of improved seed, fertilizers or
feed, extension services, and administrative/management costs. Farmers and
private landowners incur costs for labor, and producing/purchasing fertilizer, feed,
and fuel, but also benefit from the incomes accrued from increased production.
Introduction of SLM technologies is assumed to be an accelerating process,
but it is also subject to a technical constraint (seedlings, farmers’ support),
whereby no more than 800,000 hectares/year on average can be brought under
new SLM technologies.2 Subject to this constraint, two scenarios were explored:
• Resources available are allocated to alternative SLM technologies so as to
maximize the total mitigation potential.
• Resources available are allocated to alternative SLM technologies so as to max-
imize profitability—that is, net present value (NPV) of private investment—
for farmers.
In order to provide a minimally balanced mix of mitigation options, additional
constraints were added on the minimum rate of adoption for each SLM technol-
ogy, in line with their anticipated intrinsic appeal to farmers. Both scenarios
affect approximately the same total land area subject to introduction of SLM
technologies.
Adjusted Agricultural Growth Model
The agricultural growth model was adjusted to stabilize the land area needed for
crops by 2025 while still reaching the same sector production targets, given the
higher yields expected from the introduction of the above mentioned technolo-
gies (see table 4.4). Reduction of postharvest loss remains the same as in the
reference scenario.
The annual growth yield is assumed to be the same as in the reference
scenario for the first five years, then one point higher for the following five years,
and 2 points higher the next five years. This gives an annual compound growth
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Agriculture and Land Use Sector 47
Table 4.4 Agricultural Growth Model of the Low-Carbon Scenario vs. the Reference Scenario
% growth
2010–25 2026–35
Source of growth Reference Low-carbon Reference Low-carbon
Area increase 1.6 1.2 0.8 0
Post-harvest loss reduction 2.5 2.5 0 0
Yield increase 4.1 5.1 4.0 6.0
Total production growth 8.3 9.0 4.9 6.0
Source: Calculations based on data sources listed in the chapter 3 references.
Note: The way in which the sources of growth interact in determining total production growth is nonlinear, so the last row in
the table is not the result of adding the values reported in the three rows above.
Figure 4.5 Low-Carbon Scenario: Relative Contributions to Total Production Increase
2010 output = 1
7
6
5
Production index
4
3
2
1
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Post-harvest loss reduction Yield increase Area increase
Source: Calculations based on data sources listed in the chapter 3 references.
rate close to 5.1 percent. After the implementation phase, 2025 and beyond,
yield growth remains stable, at the same rate of 2025. This results in total pro-
duction growth during the model period that is somewhat higher than that of
reference scenario, as illustrated in figure 4.5.
the
Low-Carbon Scenario Emissions
All SLM technology options have a positive cost to the FGN, which is assumed
to provide technical support and subsidies for their implementation. The balance
of costs to private farmers and landowners is very different, however, depending
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48 Agriculture and Land Use Sector
Table 4.5 Land Use in 2010 and 2035 for the Reference and Low-Carbon Scenarios
hectares, millions
2035
Land use 2010 Reference Low-carbon scenario A Low-carbon scenario B
Annuals 34.44 46.16 41.43 41.43
Perennials 6.55 12.42 9.72 9.72
Wet rice 1.31 2.92 2.63 2.63
Forests 9.10 2.70 10.30 5.93
Secondary forests 8.80 1.80 3.79 3.79
Plantations 0.30 0.90 0.90 0.90
Live fencing/agroforestry . . 5.61 1.24
Pastureland 18.63 15.67 14.88 17.78
Degraded lands 1.85 . . .
Fallows 6.23 2.08 2.29 3.11
Other lands 12.94 9.10 9.80 10.45
Total 91.05 91.05 91.05 91.05
Source: Calculations based on data sources listed in the chapter 3 references.
Note: (.) = negligible.
on the specific option selected. These costs were evaluated under two different
scenarios (table 4.5):
• Scenario A focuses on those options which maximize emissions r eductions
potential per hectare of land, namely avoided deforestation and agroforestry.
• Scenario B focuses on the options that provide the highest private return,
particularly conservation agriculture, which increases crop yields for a rela-
tively low investment. (Note that agroforestry also provides significant yield
increases, but requires more intense up-front investments from farmers,
particularly in labor, and is therefore only marginally profitable for them.)
Overall, scenario A results in a mitigation potential of 1.0 billion t CO2e
(compared to the reference scenario). It costs the government US$3.2 billion
(in NPV terms), and it generates net returns of US$5.7 billion to farmers
(also NPV). Scenario B generates roughly half the emission reductions, at slightly
more than 0.6 billion t CO2e, at a similarly reduced public cost of about
US$2.2 billion, while private returns are roughly increased by one-third, reaching
US$7.2 billion.
Other land use changes, such as expansion of perennial crops and paddies and
restoration of degraded land, remain the same as the reference scenario. So do
other emissions model parameters, such as soil and climate characteristics, con-
struction of new infrastructure, and introduction of technologies and improve-
ments already included under the reference scenario. Table 4.6 and figure 4.6
illustrate the contribution of each subsector to the total mitigation potential of
the two different scenarios. A negative number indicates higher emissions than
the reference scenario.
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Agriculture and Land Use Sector 49
Table 4.6 Mitigation Potential of Each Activity
Scenario A mitigation Scenario B mitigation
Activities Mt CO2 % Mt CO2 %
Avoided deforestation 207 18 207 30
Afforestation and agroforestry (live fences) 712 61 158 22
Non forest land use change −142 n.a. −13 n.a.
Annual crops 124 11 222 32
Perennial crops 46 4 46 7
Wet rice 7 1 3 0
Grassland 34 3 32 5
Livestock 28 2 28 4
Inputs −39 n.a. −39 n.a.
Other investment 2 0 2 0
Total 976 646
Source: Calculations based on data sources listed in the chapter 3 references.
Note: n.a. = not applicable.
Figure 4.6 Agricultural Mitigation Potential by Subsector for Two Low-Carbon Scenarios
a. Maximum mitigation potential of the Nigerian AFOLU sector (scenario A)
250
200 Emissions of the reference
scenario (194 Mt in 2011,
25 Mt in 2035)
150
100
Mt CO2e
50
0
–50
–100 Emissions of the low-carbon
scenario (161 Mt in 2011,
–89 Mt in 2035)
–150
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035
figure continues next page
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50 Agriculture and Land Use Sector
Figure 4.6 Agricultural Mitigation Potential by Subsector for Two Low-Carbon Scenarios (continued)
b. Mitigation potential of the Nigerian AFOLU sector (scenario B)
250
200 Emissions of the
reference scenario
(194 Mt in 2011, 25 Mt in 2035)
150
Emissions of the low
carbon scenario (172 Mt in
Mt CO2e
2011, –20 Mt in 2035)
100
50
0
–50
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035
Inputs (fertilizers, infrastructures) Livestock and pasturelands
Land use changes Low carbon emissions
Crops (annual, perennial, wet rice)
Source: Calculations based on data sources listed in the chapter 3 references.
Note: AFOLU = agriculture, forestry, and other land use.
Table 4.7 Results for the Two Low-Carbon Simulations from 2010 to 2035
Variable Scenario A Scenario B
Cumulative emissions, Mt CO2e 1,687 2,017
Total mitigation potential, Mt CO2e 976 646
Average mitigation potential, in t CO2e/hectares/year 0.4 0.3
Cumulative public expenses (gross/NPV), $millions 10,211/3,207 6,983/2,228
Cumulative private revenues (gross/NPV), $millions 41,024/5,699 44,278/7,277
Source: Calculations based on data sources listed in the chapter 3 references.
Table 4.7 shows that scenario A has 1.5 times the mitigation potential of
cenario B (976 vs. 646 Mt CO2e/year), but at 1.4 times the public cost and
s
0.8 times the additional income to the farmers on a NPV basis. However, the
additional GHG emissions reductions generated under scenario A offer the
possibility to use carbon payments to incentivize landowners and farmers to
adopt more carbon-beneficial land uses. On average, a carbon price of US$6.1
per t CO2e per year paid to farmers would be sufficient to increase the private
financial benefit of the land use choices under scenario A to the same level as
that enjoyed under scenario B, effectively compensating farmers for adopting
SLM options with higher mitigation potential.
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Agriculture and Land Use Sector 51
With carbon payments, conservation agriculture is still the most profitable
option, but introducing a system of rice intensification (SRI) and livestock/
pasturelands improvement are significantly more attractive, and avoided defores-
tation is relatively more attractive, although still not financially rewarding in
isolation. Hence, carbon payments at this level are not sufficient to incentivize
private decisions to take up all SLM options in accordance with scenario A, but
could be used to compensate for the foregone income at the macro level.
Therefore, if the FGN could control the distribution of carbon incomes, these
funds could potentially be used to selectively incentivize the most carbon-
intensive options, such as avoided deforestation and agroforestry, as a strategy to
provide for a more balanced mix of SLM technologies that would exploit the
synergies between them, as well as the additional positive environmental exter-
nalities from maintaining increased forest cover.
Recommendations for Agriculture and Land Use
Despite the demonstrated benefits of SLM technologies, adoption of low-carbon
strategies is still often limited or slow in most countries, even for those options
that involve significant private financial returns. Among practical obstacles that
hinder rapid adoption are the need to convince and train risk-averse farmers
about new ways of farming as well as the frequent need for up-front investment
that pays off over a number of years. Financial support, training, and demonstra-
tions are all necessary to encourage farmers to undergo the radical change in
working and thinking needed to adopt new SLM techniques.
A further practical issue is that low-carbon technologies assume that higher
productivity will offset expansion of cropland, whereas in reality increasing yields
may increase the private incentives to convert more land to agriculture, with the
added risk that over-exploitation of land might eventually lead to declining
output. Hence, agricultural intensification is unlikely to result in avoided defor-
estation unless it occurs within a strong policy framework. This section discusses
some of the policy and institutional steps needed to realize the potential of SLM.
Building capacity and the political framework to mainstream climate change
in agriculture and forestry strategies is a complex and dynamic process, involving
numerous stakeholders from central to field levels (see box 4.2).
Figure 4.7 is a schematic representation of the minimum necessary elements
for capacity building: (1) mentoring, that is, research institutions identifying
problems and solutions, (2) training, which will bring to the field scientific
knowledge, and (3) networking, that is, creating a conducive policy environment
with interactions between experts and actors.
Strengthen Agriculture Research
Agricultural research has been shown to be one of the most effective forms of
public investment. In Nigeria, although it is recommended that agricultural
research spending not be less than 2 percent of agricultural gross domestic prod-
uct (GDP), the federal funding of agricultural research in Nigeria has been well
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52 Agriculture and Land Use Sector
Box 4.2 Partners for a Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA) Network in Nigeria
Implementation of a low-carbon policy in the agriculture sector will require mobilization of
major public institutions; development partners; and federal, state, and local level stakeholders,
including banks, the private sector, legislators, NGOs, and other actors.
Key institutions to be mobilized are: (1) Federal Ministry of the Environment (FME) as the
designated National Authority for Climate Change and Sustainable Development; (2) Federal
Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (FMARD) as the main sector coordinator;
(3) River Basin Development Authorities (watershed management–reforestation); (4) Nigerian
Agricultural Insurance Corporation on risk management–weather based insurance; and
(5) Nigeria Agricultural Cooperative and Rural Development Bank (fertilizer, input-investment
credits).
Farmer organizations form one of the most important pillars of policy and institutional
capability for agricultural development because of their ability to engage in dialogue with the
government and to widely mobilize farmers. Participation of farmer associations in policy for-
mulation and monitoring and evaluation (M&E) increases ownership and sustainability of
policy measures. The All Farmers Association of Nigeria, an umbrella body for Nigerian farmers,
is seen as the national platform for corporate and professional bodies, cooperatives, and com-
modity associations. Currently, there are 43 major farmers’ associations in Nigeria, which are
organized along commodity lines (FGN 2011). The association could act as a field support plat-
form to promote CSA practices and gather smallholders to channel carbon funding and pay-
ment of environment services.
below the average for Africa (0.85 percent of GDP). Private-sector agricultural
research is negligible, as it is in most of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The
Department of Agricultural Sciences (DAS) of the Federal Ministry of Agriculture
and Rural Development (FMARD) is responsible for all aspects of agricultural
research in Nigeria. DAS oversees the funding and management of 15 national
agricultural research institutes located throughout the country. Those institutes
are tasked with generating improved agricultural technologies for use by farmers
and agro-industries.
However, DAS funding of agricultural science research and technology has
been generally stagnant and has even decreased since the collapse of oil prices in
the early 1980s. The agricultural research capacity in Nigeria is highly dispersed
and the country does not have a well-defined national strategy. Nonetheless
research is necessary to develop crop and livestock management practices aimed
at enhancing the resilience and mitigation potential of smallholder farming
systems, through adapting SLM approaches to local circumstances, as well as for
meeting the overall growth targets under Vision 20: 2020.
Policy Recommendation
FMARD could launch a dedicated program on climate-smart agriculture (CSA),
with individual research lines to be awarded competitively to institutions
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Agriculture and Land Use Sector 53
Figure 4.7 Capacity Building Model
Favorable policy environment
Training
- Information ow
- Formal and informal
organizations
- Infrastructures
Networking
Mentoring
- Inter-institutional/
organizational - Skills
con guration
- Mentors
- Administrative
- Expertise
measures
Source: Design based on Sanni et al. 2010.
included in the National Agricultural Research System. The program could focus
on both development of planning tools (for example, a CSA atlas) to define and
prioritize opportunities for adopting “triple-win” agricultural options (higher
resilience, reduced carbon emissions) and the definition of
yields, higher climate
solutions farmers can adopt on the ground. Strengthening of research should be
accompanied by suitable measures to improve the effectiveness of extension
services, including through greater involvement of state governments.
Improve Mechanisms for Knowledge Sharing and Technology Transfer
Diffusion of scientific and technical knowledge to farmers is a prerequisite to the
adoption of SLM and climate-smart agricultural practices. Agriculture needs to
become professionalized with better incentives for training and development of
technical capacity in crop and livestock production.
Agricultural Development Projects (ADPs) are the main vehicle for the deliv-
ery of public extension services in Nigeria. Not “projects” in the conventional
sense, ADPs are state-level parastatals working in the agricultural sector. The first
generation ADPs were created during the mid-1970s and were supported largely
by donor funds. Their extension activities include establishing demonstration
farms, identifying lead farmers, providing them with information about good
farming practices, facilitating access to improved technology and inputs
(for example, improved seed varieties, fertilizer, machinery services), and helping
the lead farmers teach other farmers.
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54 Agriculture and Land Use Sector
ADPs could serve as platforms for capacity-building, to promote the adoption
of climate-smart agriculture (CSA) techniques. They could network with local-
fficers and regional/local plan-
level training institutions to serve both extension o
ners for promoting CSA at the planning and project design level.
Policy Recommendation
FMARD should promote “support platforms” for small farmers. A key issue in
exploiting carbon finance in the agriculture sector is that, although the GHG
emissions potential is significant, the contribution of each individual farm is often
small. Thus it is important to find an efficient approach to aggregate the contri-
butions of individual farmers to avoid excessive transaction costs. Farmers’
federations with support from ADPs could be strengthened to become field
platforms and potentially to channel carbon funds and payment for environment
services. Their value chain–based structure and their capacity to gather small
farmers give them an advantage as a farmers’ aggregator.3 Therefore to support
these organizations it is important to:
• Build the capacity of these organizations to play an effective and sustainable
role to promote improved practices and to control and monitor programs.
• Provide technical assistance to farmers’ organizations to enable the trade of
carbon credits on the voluntary markets, and possibly on the compliance
market as well. These carbon assets, including soil carbon, would result from
the implementation of CSA.
• Develop effective and scalable tools to support partnerships between
government, private-sector operators, and leading local farmers’ organizations
and trade associations to broaden access by smallholder farmers to commercial
and technical services.
Policy Recommendation
The FGN should strengthen decentralized institutions. With its federal system of
government, Nigeria faces a challenge to define the roles and responsibilities of
each tier of government. All the agricultural research institutes are owned and
managed by the FGN while the state and local governments, which provide
extension services, have no research institutes. This means that decisions on the
funding, direction, and implementation of research activities are taken from
Abuja, resulting in a discrepancy between local needs and current research and
development (R&D) programs. An effort should be made by FGN to decentral-
ize activities and strengthen the linkage to extension services and farmer
organizations.
Integrate CSA into Mainstream Government Programs
A stable policy environment is a key requirement for the effective development
of the agriculture sector and its contribution to mitigating climate change.
Unfortunately, this has generally been lacking in Nigeria: inconsistent agricultural
policies have often resulted in limited response by farmers due to the uncertainty
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Agriculture and Land Use Sector 55
Box 4.3 Nigeria’s Agricultural Transformation Agenda (ATA)
The 2012 Agricultural Transformation Agenda (ATA) is a comprehensive plan that aims to
restore Nigeria’s old glory as an agriculture powerhouse. To this effect, the ATA seeks dramatic
increases in agricultural productivity, massive job creation in the agriculture sector, significant
expansion of value-addition in processing, drastic reductions in agricultural imports, and
improved penetration of international markets. It targets a number of commodities, including
rice, cassava, cacao, oil palm, cotton, sorghum, maize, soybean, tomato, onion, livestock, and
aquaculture, differentiated across space.
The ATA is an important point of departure for transforming Nigeria’s agriculture sector by
providing: (1) an in-depth analysis of root causes of poor performance of the agriculture sector
along with quantification of lost opportunities caused by this poor performance; (2) a clear
vision for transformation of the sector as a process, including import substitution, export
orientation, and value-addition through processing and backward integration linkages; (3) an
explicit focus on agriculture as a business, putting the private sector in the driver’s seat and
recognizing the critical role of women; (4) a comprehensive approach to change by focusing
on value chains; (5) a concrete and specific program of sector policy reforms, including reform
of the fertilizer subsidy program, which has been a major drain on sector expenditures; and (6)
specific and quantified targets for expected outcomes in terms of jobs, income, food security,
and productivity improvements.
Source: Based on Nigeria Federal Ministry of Agriculture.
on how long any given policy might actually last. Also, erratic import policies
characterized by frequent changes in both import tariffs and quantitative import
restrictions have created additional uncertainty for producers. However, Nigeria
has recently developed its Agricultural Transformation Agenda (box 4.3), which
has the potential to act as a key long-term vehicle to champion sustainable and
climate-smart sector policies.
Policy Recommendations
The FGN could strengthen the integration of CSA into the ATA by supporting
the following:
• A dedicated program to promote climate-smart, SLM practices—that is, those
that at the same time can raise yields, increase climate resilience, and reduce
net carbon emissions—in up to 1 million hectares by 2020. The SLM
Committee provides an institutional platform to promote the development
and diffusion of climate-smart agriculture practices. This work could build on
the experience accumulated under the Fadama project (Echeme Ibeawuchi
and Nwachukwu 2010).
• The FMARD could introduce screening tools for the ATA to improve the
ability of investment projects in agriculture to increase climate resilience and
Low-Carbon Development • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-9925-5
56 Agriculture and Land Use Sector
reduce emissions. Tools such as the FAO Guidance to Best Practices and guid-
ance on carbon balance appraisal of projects and policies could help the
country develop its climate change response from the strategy level down to
the stage of project design and appraisal.
Notes
1. It is assumed that the six-fold increase in the value of agricultural output envisioned
under Vision 20: 2020 is only partly met through increase in physical output, with the
rest accounted for in terms of increases in price or value of output due to improved
quality or competitiveness. Hence the growth in physical output to 2025 used as the
basis of the growth model is less than a six-fold increase.
2. At an average farm size of two hectares, this is equivalent to roughly 400,000 rural
families adopting SLM options annually. This is ambitious, but not compared to the
scale of sector reforms already needed to address the Vision 20: 2020 productivity
goals.
3. The large number of small farmers in rural areas makes it hard to provide adequate
incentives and extension support with manageable transaction costs. A key challenge
is finding an entry point to reach them. Options include farmers’ unions, cooperatives,
value chains, and existing programs that cover a district with adequate services. The
role of aggregator is to deliver the whole range of services and support to a wide
number of small farmers, including the eventual delivery of payment for environmen-
tal services.
References
CBN (Central Bank of Nigeria). 2002. Annual Report and Statement of Accounts for the Year
Ended, 31 December 2002. Abuja.
Echeme Ibeawuchi, I., and C. C. Nwachukwu. 2010. “An Investigation on the Impact of
FADAMA II Project Implementation in Imo State.” American Journal of Scientific and
Industrial Research 1 (3): 532–38.
FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations). 2010. “First Results of
Carbon Balance Appraisal on Agriculture Rehabilitation and Recovery Support
Project (ARRS) in DRC.” FAO, Rome.
FAO GeoNetwork Database. http://www.fao.org/geonetwork/srv/en/main.home.
FGN (Federal Government of Nigeria), 2009. Report of the Vision 2020 National Technical
Working Group on Agriculture and Food Security. http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=
j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&ved=0CDEQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2
Fwww.npc.gov.ng%2Fvault%2FNTWG%2520Final%2520Report%2Fagriculture%252
0%26%2520food%2520security%2520ntwg%2520report.pdf&ei=mP49UYHuD-Ta4
QTrroF4&usg=AFQjCNElp6cka7fUmAms0PCRthknT-1wrw&bvm=bv.43287494,
d.bGE.
———. 2011. “Nigeria Review of Ongoing Agricultural Development Efforts 1.” FGN and
NEPAD, Abuja. http://ebookbrowse.com/nigeria-review-of-ongoing-agricultural-
efforts-pdf-d309949627.
Nigeria Federal Ministry of Agriculture. Agricultural Transformation Agenda. http://www
.fmard.org/index.php/ata-nigeria.
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Agriculture and Land Use Sector 57
Sanni, M., J. O. Adejuwon, I. Ologeh, and W. O. Siyanbola. 2010. “Path to the Future for
Climate Change Education: A University Project Approach.” In Universities and Climate
Change: Introducing Climate Change to University Programmes, edited by W. L. Filho,
21–30. Berlin (Heidelberg): Springer-Verlag. doi:10.1007/978-3-642-10751-1_2.
worldbank
World Bank. 2007. World Development Indicators. Washington, DC. http://data.
.org/indicator/NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS.
———. 2012. Inclusive Green Growth: The Pathway to Sustainable Development.
Washington, DC.
World Bank. 2007–2011. World Development Indicators. Washington, DC: World Bank.
http://data.worldbank.org/.
Low-Carbon Development • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-9925-5
Cha p t e r 5
The Oil and Gas Sector
Nigeria’s proven oil and gas reserves of 37.2 billion barrels and 186.9 trillion
cubic feet (TCF), respectively, as of January 1, 2011, rank the country among
the top 10 globally in wealth of these resources. Revenues from oil exports
during 2010 reached US$70 billion, which, together with LNG (liquefied
natural gas) exports, represents more than 90 percent of Nigeria’s foreign
exchange receipts. However, the rapid growth in sectors of the economy
outside of oil and gas is causing the sector’s share of gross domestic product
(GDP) to decline.
In 1977 the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) created the Nigerian
National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) which has managed this sector
through joint venture (JV) arrangements with the petroleum industry. This
investment structure gave the state a significant direct interest in this industry
but also required it to fund a significant share of all investments. This has
become increasingly onerous in recent years, resulting in a shortfall in the
funding of the NNPC’s share of investments. More recent deep-water
licenses—with increasingly expensive exploration and development costs—
have been awarded in the form of production sharing contracts (PSCs) to
relieve the government of any funding requirement. Over the last few years the
government has proposed a complete restructuring of the industry, and until
the new terms and conditions are clear, private industry is reluctant to commit
to new investments. However, progress has been made in reducing gas flaring,
even as oil and gas production have increased (see figure 5.1).
The oil and gas sector has historically been one of the main sources of green-
house gas (GHG) emissions in Nigeria. Estimated annual emissions in 2010
were approximately 90 million metric tons carbon dioxide equivalent
(Mt CO2e) per year, of which the dominant source is gas flaring. The other
major sources are on-site use of gas (mainly for power generation) for operating
oil and gas production, transportation, and processing facilities; fugitive emis-
sions of gas through leaks and other losses; and venting of gas from oil storage
tanks (see figure 5.2).
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60 The Oil and Gas Sector
Figure 5.1 Historical Oil and Gas Production and Flared Gas Volumes
80 2.5
70
Gas/flared volumes, m3 billions
2.0
60
Oil, mln bbl/day
50 1.5
40
30 1.0
20
0.5
10
0 0.0
83
85
87
89
91
93
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
Flared gas Gas production (AG & NAG) Oil production
Source: NNPC 2011.
Note: AG = associated gas; NAG = non-associated gas.
Figure 5.2 Oil and Gas GHG Emissions by Source, 2010
percent
Glycol
Fugitives, emissions, Crude storage,
9 2
9
On-site gas
combustion,
14
Flare CO2, Flare CH4,
48 18
Source: Calculations based on NNPC oil and gas production data listed in the chapter 3 references.
Study Results
The study team developed the reference case scenario based on extensive interac-
tions and feedback from the NNPC and oil industry representatives. It assumes a
reduction
continuing decline of emissions from gas flaring based on existing flare-
programs agreed with the FGN and oil companies, as seen in figure 5.3. However,
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The Oil and Gas Sector 61
Figure 5.3 Reference Scenario Oil and Gas GHG Emissions by Source
100
90
80
70
60
Mt CO2e
50
40
30
20
10
0
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
31
33
35
09
11
13
15
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Glycol emissions On-site gas combustion
Fugitives Flare CH4
Crude storage Flare CO2
Source: Calculations based on data sources listed in the chapter 3 references.
the assumptions for the two oil and gas production regimes—JV and PSC—are
different. In JV fields, flaring is projected to decrease over the study period from
the current 37 percent of associated gas (AG) production to 5 percent by 2035.
This reflects the high level of legacy flaring in these older fields. PSC fields, rela-
tively recently developed, are assumed to have had gas gathering infrastructure
incorporated in their design, and therefore to be flaring only 5 percent of the AG
currently.
However, emissions from all other sources are forecast to increase. Major
drivers are the expected growth in on-site use of gas to fuel power genera-
tion and other processes, particularly in LNG and gas-to-liquid (GTL)
plants, as well as increases in gas production to meet domestic and export
demand.
While flaring sources are clearly identified mitigation targets, no specific data
are available on the fields and facilities in the Nigerian oil and gas industry. It is
possible, therefore, that some emission mitigation options discussed in the study
analysis may have already been completely or partially implemented. If this is the
case, the emission estimates in the reference case scenario, and the potential for
their reduction, may be overstated.
Based on the production projections and the assumptions described in
the following sections, emissions for the next 25 years from the oil and gas
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62 The Oil and Gas Sector
sector can be expected to remain at approximately 70–80 million tons
per year.
The Demand for Gas
In order to evaluate the future gas supply requirements, the study team
developed a gas demand projection for the major gas users using the following
assumptions:
• On-Site Use: In the absence of other data, on-site use of gas for power
generation, re-injection, and so on has been assumed to mirror current own-
use throughout the study period, adjusted to take account of the changes in
production levels over time.
• Power Generation: Nigeria’s gas-fired power generating capacity is projected
to increase rapidly; the rate of increase has been taken from the Power Sector
reference case developed for this study.
• Industrial Use: The required volume of gas has been assumed to increase at
approximately 10 percent a year.
• LNG: LNG exports are expected to grow both through additional trains at
Nigeria LNG Ltd. and as the Brass and OK plants come on-stream. The timing
of the LNG export increases is taken from the Wood Mackenzie 2011 global
LNG report. Gas requirements assume 9 percent of the into-plant gas is
required for on-site power generation and other uses.
• GTL plants: The Escravos GTL plant is assumed to come on-stream in 2013
with a capacity of 34 thousand barrels per day. A second plant (or expansion)
of the same size is assumed to come on-stream in 2022. Gas requirements
assume 35 percent of the into-plant gas is the volume assumed to be used for
on-site power generation and other uses.
• West Africa Gas Pipeline (WAGP): The WAGP started exporting gas in 2010.
Volumes by 2020 are assumed to gradually reach 474 million cubic standard
feet per day, the current capacity of the line.
Figure 5.4 illustrates the evolution of the various demand components based
on the above assumptions.
Oil and Condensates
The NNPC has forecast that oil and condensate production will reach a pla-
teau of just over 3 million barrels per day in 2020 and will then decline at 9%
per annum to under 0.9 million barrels per day by 2035. This scenario
(shown as dashed lines in figure 5.5 panel a) is based on an assumption of
constrained investment post-2020. However, Nigeria has more than sufficient
proven oil and condensate reserves to sustain a higher level of production,
and it seems unlikely that the FGN would allow such a fast and unnecessary
decline in an essential source of revenue. Following discussions with stake-
holders, the study team developed a modified projection (shown as solid lines
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The Oil and Gas Sector 63
Figure 5.4 Reference Case Projected Demand for Gas for On-Site Use
a. Power generation gas demand
9000
8000
7000
6000
MMscf/day
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
09
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
31
33
35
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
b. Industrial gas demand
2500
2000
1500
MMscf/day
1000
500
0
09
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
31
33
35
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
figure continues next page
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64 The Oil and Gas Sector
Figure 5.4 Reference Case Projected Demand for Gas for On-Site Use (continued)
c. LNG plant gas demand
8000
7000
6000
5000
MMscf/day
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
09
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
31
33
35
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
d. GTL plant gas demand
1000
900
800
700
600
MMscf/day
500
400
300
200
100
0
09
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
31
33
35
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
figure continues next page
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The Oil and Gas Sector 65
Figure 5.4 Reference Case Projected Demand for Gas for On-Site Use (continued)
e. West Africa Gas Pipeline gas demand
500
450
400
350
300
MMscf/day
250
200
150
100
50
0
09
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
31
33
35
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Source: Calculations based on data sources listed in the chapter 3 references.
Note: MMscf = million standard cubic feet.
Figure 5.5 Projected Production of Oil and Condensate for Existing and New JV and PSC
Fields
a. Projection for Nigeria
3,500
3,000
2,500
Thousand bbl/day
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
09
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
31
33
35
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Total projection JV projection PSC projection
Total NNPC projection JV NNPC projection PSC NNPC projection
figure continues next page
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66 The Oil and Gas Sector
Figure 5.5 Projected Production of Oil and Condensate for Existing and New JV and PSC
Fields (continued)
b. Projections for existing and new JV and PSC elds
3,500
3,000
2,500
Thousand bbl/day
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
09
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
31
33
35
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
New PSC oil Base PSC oil New JV oil Base JV oil
Source: Calculations based on NNPC projections data listed in the chapter 3 references.
in figure 5.5 panel a) that assumes that, after 2022, oil and condensate pro-
duction will decline at an annual rate of 3 percent (that is, at one-third the
rate of decline in the “NNPC projection”). This decline rate is a weighted
average of:
• A decline in PSC oil and gas production at an annual rate of 4.33 percent and
• A decline in JV oil and gas production at an annual rate of 2.5 percent.
This projection, which has been used as the basis for the GHG emission
stimates, results in a cumulative production of 24.9 billion barrels of oil and
e
condensate over the period 2009–35 that is well below the currently proven
reserves of 37 billion barrels.
Total oil and condensate production was divided into four categories: old
and new JV fields and old and new PSC fields. These distinguish the cost of
implementing new low-carbon options, where old fields (pre-2009 develop-
ments) have higher costs due to the need to retrofit existing installations.
The differentiation between the PSC and JV fields was made to reflect the
significantly lower f laring rate—as advised by the Department for Petroleum
Resources (DPR) and observed from satellite data—in the PSC fields com-
pared to the JV fields. This resulted in production profiles as shown in
figure 5.5.
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The Oil and Gas Sector 67
Figure 5.6 Associated Gas (AG) Production
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
MMscf/day
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
09
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
31
33
35
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
PSC AG JV AG
Source: Calculations based on data sources listed in the chapter 3 references.
Associated Gas
The gas-oil-ratio (GOR) projection provided by NNPC combined with the modi-
fied oil projections was used to estimate AG production projections (figure 5.6).
Non-Associated Gas
The volume of AG production is determined by the oil production and gas-to-
oil ratio. Production of non-associated gas (NAG) is therefore needed to ensure
that total gas production (AG + NAG) meets expected gas demand. The NAG
projection provided by NNPC peaks in 2020 and declines thereafter, based on
their assumption of constrained investment. When added to the AG projection,
the resultant total gas supply will be insufficient to meet projected demand for
gas through 2035. Therefore, additional investment in developing new NAG
fields before 2020 will be required if the demand for natural gas for both the
domestic and export markets is to be met. This total gas demand is shown in
figure 5.7 panel a, and the corresponding supply requirement in figure 5.7
panel b.
As figure 5.7 panel a shows, the estimated supply and demand projections
suggest that there will be an excess of gas supply available prior to approximately
2020. Thereafter, as NAG production has been assumed to increase as required
to meet demand, supply and demand are in balance.
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68 The Oil and Gas Sector
Figure 5.7 Gas Demand and Supply Projections
a. Gas demand/usage projection
25,000
20,000
15,000
MMscf/day
10,000
5,000
0
09
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
31
33
35
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Own use West Africa Gas Pipeline
Flared LNG
Powergen GTL
Industry Total gas available
b. Total projected gas production
25,000
20,000
15,000
MMscf/day
10,000
5,000
0
09
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
31
33
35
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Additional NAG JV NAG PSC AG JV AG
Source: Calculations based on NNPC data listed in the chapter 3 references.
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The Oil and Gas Sector 69
GHG Emissions for the Reference Scenario
Based on the above oil and gas production projections, GHG emissions were
estimated for each of the major emission sources:
• Combustion of fuels
• Flaring of AG
• Venting of gas
• Fugitive emissions
• Other emission sources (such as venting from oil storage tanks and facility
maintenance activities).
The reference case scenario GHG emissions forecasts by source are presented
in figure 5.8.
GHG Emissions in the Low-Carbon Scenario
This study has identified a large number of potential mitigation options for each
of the various parts of the oil and gas production, transportation, and processing
chain, as well as provided estimates of the capital and operating costs and emis-
sion reductions that would be achieved through their implementation.
In order to establish a low-carbon emissions scenario, a selection was made
from these options assuming (1) an annual budget ceiling for implementing
Figure 5.8 Reference Scenario: Oil and Gas GHG Emissions by Source
100
90
80
70
60
Mt CO2e
50
40
30
20
10
0
09
11
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
31
33
13
35
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Glycol emissions On-site gas combustion
Fugitives Flare CH4
Crude storage Flare CO2
Source: Calculations based on NNPC data listed in the chapter 3 references.
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70 The Oil and Gas Sector
low-carbon options of US$3 billion per year, about 5 percent of projected net
revenues from oil and gas production and (2) limited engineering capacity to
implement these options; for example, no more than 35 flare reduction options
were considered implementable each year. A brief description of the low-carbon
options included in the analysis is provided in Box 5.1.
Box 5.1 Low-Carbon Interventions for the Oil and Gas Sector
The options that can be considered to reduce carbon emissions fall into three main
categories:
• Gas flaring
• Leakage and emissions of natural gas, which is primarily methane
• Use of gas within oil and gas sector operations
Gas flaring
Gas flaring, which takes place at many areas of oil and gas operations (including production
facilities, gas processing facilities, and LNG and GTL plants), can be reduced if viable alternative
uses for the gas being flared can be identified. In Nigeria, these uses include:
• injection either for enhancement of oil recovery or purely for disposal/storage;
• power generation, heating on-site to run the operations;
• domestic power generation, both on a large scale with electricity delivered to the national
grid or on a small scale, to supply electricity to local communities;
• supply to LNG and GTL plants;
• supply to domestic industry; and
• export via the West Africa Gas Pipeline.
Extraction of natural gas liquids (LPGs) for sale can be employed to reduce gas volumes
flared, even where no viable use for the dry gas is available.
Although the bulk of gas flaring can be reduced by using the gas as described above, some
flaring will always continue primarily for safety reasons. These smaller, but still significant,
emissions can be reduced by redesign of the flare itself to remove the need for pilot flames,
and to improve combustion efficiency.
Leakage and emissions of natural gas
Natural gas leakage and emissions take place, to a greater or lesser extent, in all oil and gas
operations. The bulk of these emissions are called “fugitive emissions,” which take place
through gas seals and pipe connections, from gas-actuated process control equipment, during
maintenance operations, and from equipment designed to vent small volumes of gas during
normal operations. These fugitive emissions can be reduced by:
• replacing wet seals on gas compressors, which continuously leak gas through the seal, with
dry sealing devices;
• installing vapor recovery units on glycol pumps and dehydration units;
box continues next page
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The Oil and Gas Sector 71
Box 5.1 Low-Carbon Interventions for the Oil and Gas Sector (continued)
• using air rather than gas to actuate process control equipment;
• installing low-bleed pneumatic control devices; and
• carrying out enhanced and directed maintenance programs for production and processing
facilities, gas compressors, pipelines, and meters.
Emissions also take place as gas evolves from oil stored in fixed-roof tanks at oil and gas
facilities. These emissions can be reduced by replacement of the fixed roofs with internal float-
ing roofs that minimize the leakage and/or installation of vapor recovery units to collect the
gas evolved.
Use of gas within oil and gas sector operations
The main use of gas within the oil and gas sector is for power generation to run oil and gas
production, transportation, and processing operations. Options to reduce emissions from this
on-site power generation equipment include:
• replacement of low-efficiency gas turbines/reciprocating engines with modern, high-
efficiency equipment;
• installing variable speed drives on gas compressors and oil pumps to maximize compressor
and pump efficiencies;
• replacement of the power generation equipment itself with modern higher efficiency
equipment, such as combined-cycle units;
• replacement of equipment with a high demand for power, particularly gas compressors,
with modern higher efficiency equipment;
• installing optimal system control units to reduce the power requirement in the various oil
and gas operations; and
• carbon capture and storage of combustion gases.
Under the low-carbon scenario, GHG emissions are significantly reduced, as
illustrated in figure 5.9, with better utilization of Nigeria’s gas resources through
reduced waste of AG. The total potential abatement over the 2010–35 period is
estimated to be 750 Mt CO2e. Figure 5.9 also shows the resultant low-carbon
scenario emissions by source.
The emission reductions attributed to reducing gas flaring in this scenario are
significant. However, it should be noted that the main flare reduction has already
been included in the reference case scenario. Without these reductions, the refer-
ence case scenario emissions would be significantly higher. Reduction in gas flar-
ing is the single most effective activity to increase AG utilization and reduce
emissions.
Early implementation of flaring reduction is critical, as declining oil (and
hence AG) production reduces the economic attractiveness of the low-carbon
investments. Implementation of low-carbon options in fields where flaring is
continuing will have limited or no impact because the gas saved would then be
flared. Therefore, elimination of routine flaring should typically precede imple-
mentation of other low-carbon options.
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72 The Oil and Gas Sector
Figure 5.9 Low-Carbon Scenario: Emissions Reductions from Oil and Gas
50
45
40
35
30
Mt CO2e
25
20
15
10
5
0
09
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
31
33
35
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Glycol emissions Crude storage Flare CH4
Fugitives On-site gas combustion Flare CO2
Source: Calculations based on NNPC data listed in the chapter 3 references.
Gas Prices
Most carbon mitigation options generate revenues from sale of natural gas, LNG,
liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and electricity. Considerable uncertainty about
the future prices of these products is inevitable. For base and low gas price sce-
narios, projections from the U.S. Department of Energy Annual Energy Outlook
(USDOE 2011) have been used, consistent with analysis of low-carbon options
for the Nigerian power sector. The high gas price scenario is based on the United
Kingdom Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC 2011) high gas
price scenario, which is notably higher until 2026 than Annual Energy Outlook
(USDOE 2011) high-scenario (see table 5.1).
Natural gas supplied to LNG plants is calculated at the value of LNG exports
to Europe, less $1.67 for marginal production cost, $1.33 for shipping, and $0.37
for regasification, for a total netback reduction of $3.37/millionBtu from the
price of LNG to estimate the value of gas.
For gas sold domestically, the price in 2012 is assumed to be at current low
gas prices, with an increase to export parity by 2015 in accordance with the
assumptions used in the power sector analysis.
Revenues for large-scale LPG volumes are estimated at gross primary produc-
tivity (GPP) plant outlet at $400/ton, based on a Rotterdam price of $800/ton,
less shipping and transportation. For small-scale domestic LPG sales near the well-
head, net revenue is estimated at $150/ton. LPG prices are projected to increase
over time indexed to the price of oil, using base, low, and high scenarios.
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The Oil and Gas Sector 73
Table 5.1 Low-, Mid-, and High-Cost Product Price Scenarios, 2012–35
Year 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Natural gas ($/millionBtu)
Low 4.41 4.55 4.78 5.02 5.28 5.55
Mid 4.50 4.71 5.07 5.46 5.89 6.34
High 8.34 9.23 10.71 11.45 11.45 11.45
LPG ($/tonne)
Low 316 315 323 317 335 319
Mid 404 427 488 516 531 539
High 532 597 681 732 760 772
Electricity ($/MWh)
Low 55 60 61 63 65 67
Mid 57 63 65 68 71 75
High 87 99 104 104 104 104
Sources: DECCC 2011; USDOE 2011.
Figure 5.10 Revenues and Costs for the Low-Carbon Scenario
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
US$, million/year
1,000
0
–1,000
–2,000
–3,000
–4,000
28
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Electricity revenues NG revenues Capital
LPG revenues Operating expenditure
expenditure
Source: Energy Redefined 2012.
The revenues from the sale of electricity generated from gas utilized by low-
carbon options are estimated to be the same as the generation cost for grid-
connected gas turbines used in the analysis of the Nigerian power sector, at
$52/megawatt-hour (MWh) in 2010, increasing to $63/MWh in 2015, as gas
price approaches export parity.
Using the mid-prices, figure 5.10 shows the costs and revenues for the low-
carbon scenario. The largest capital costs occur in the early years. Revenues are
Low-Carbon Development • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-9925-5
74 The Oil and Gas Sector
dominated by gas sales, with significant contributions from LPG. As the graph
shows, the early low-carbon options generate sufficient revenue to fund further
implementation after 2016.
Recommendations for Oil and Gas
Recommendations for the Federal Government of Nigeria
Policy Recommendation: Establish A Joint Government-Industry Group
The FGN might want to consider setting up a joint government-industry group
to develop a low-carbon strategy and action plan for the oil and gas industry.
Policy Recommendation: Fund Mitigation Projects
The FGN might want to ensure that NNPC’s annual budget includes suffi-
cient funding for implementation of the high-priority mitigation options.
The FGN should consider implementing a “fast-track” budget approval pro-
mitigation options.
cess for
Policy Recommendation: Improve Collection and Availability of Data
For many emission estimates, this book has relied on realistic assumptions with
regard to the oil and gas facilities in Nigeria and their condition. In order to
develop better and more detailed emission estimates that can form the basis of a
detailed plan for their mitigation, it is recommended that the FGN promotes the
following:
• The creation of a sector-wide inventory of emission sources. Apart from
information on current GHG emissions, the inventory should include
the status of each source—for example, age, condition, emission reduc-
tion actions already taken—and identified potential emission reduction
options.
• Application of the Tier 1 methodology of the Intergovernmental Panel for
Climate Change to establish the current level of emissions. If Tier 1 is
considered to be unrealistic to carry out in a reasonable time frame, at least a
Tier 2 estimate (both Tier 1 and Tier 2 estimation methodologies are described
in the API Compendium [API 2009]) should be prepared.
Policy Recommendations for the Oil and Gas Industry (including NNPC)
Address Gas Flaring Reduction
Flaring reduction should be the highest priority action, not only to reduce the
direct emissions from the flaring, but also to extract maximum benefit from
conserving gas through implementation of other mitigation measures.
Because of the high cost of installing gas gathering and processing facilities at
small flare sites, it is recommended that consideration should be given to
collecting the small volumes of AG in clusters for processing and export of the
dry gas and LPGs.
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The Oil and Gas Sector 75
Improve Energy Efficiency
(1) Consider replacement of older and/or smaller on-site power plants with new
equipment and (2) Consider use of variable-speed drives on pumps and com-
pressors to improve efficiency.
Other Recommendations for Reducing Emissions
(1) Since some flaring will still occur (for example, for safety), consider
improvement of the combustion efficiency of remaining flares. (2) Where not
already done, consider replacing fixed roof tanks with floating roof tanks, with
gathering systems for the liberated gas. (3) Enhanced and directed inspection and
maintenance programs have been very effective in reducing emissions in other
oil and gas ventures. Consider gradually implementing such programs in Nigeria.
Longer Term Recommendations for Oil and Gas
A number of technologies may become economically attractive to implement in
the longer term, including alternative energy sources such as wave power to
replace on-site gas/diesel combustion and carbon capture and storage. The cost
trend for these technologies should be monitored and, when they appear to be
viable, their potential for implementation in Nigeria should be considered.
References
API (American Petroleum Institute). 2009. Compendium of Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Methodologies for the Oil and Gas Industry. Washington, DC.
DECC (UK Department of Energy and Climate Change). 2011. “DECC Fossil Fuel Price
Projections: Summary.” UK Department of Energy and Climate Change, London.
Energy Redefined. 2012. “Nigerian Oil and Gas Industry Low Carbon Options
Methodology Paper.” Unpublished Paper, Energy Redefined Ltd., Glasgow, Scotland.
NNPC (Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation). 2011. NNPC Annual Report. Abuja.
http://www.nnpcgroup.com.
USDOE (U.S. Department of Energy). 2011. Annual Energy Outlook. Energy Information
Agency, Washington, DC.
Wood Mackenzie. 2011. “A Domestic Challenge to Nigerian LNG Projects.” Wood
Mackenzie Upstream Insight. http://www.woodmacresearch.com/cgi-bin/wmprod/
portal/energy/productMicrosite.jsp?productOID=664070.
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Cha p t e r 6
The Power Sector
Nigeria’s electricity grid faces many challenges, including insufficient grid-
connected capacity to meet demand, inadequate infrastructure to make the
country’s abundant gas available for power generation, and an inefficient trans-
mission and distribution system with limited coverage. In part for these reasons,
an estimated 50 percent of the electrical energy consumed in the country is
currently produced off-grid by diesel and gasoline generators of all shapes and
sizes. Unmet demand is also high, particularly amongst the many citizens who
have no access to the grid and cannot afford off-grid power.
This is fully recognized by the current government. Within the last
5 years, four major power sector planning studies have been carried out for
the country; increasing the amount, accessibility, and reliability of electricity
supply is a major political priority for Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan,
who has recently established two multi-agency bodies for power sector
development.
Projecting Development of the Sector
Electricity Demand
Projecting the demand for electricity in Nigeria is especially challenging because
of the difficulty in estimating the large amount of electricity produced by small,
unregulated petrol and diesel generators, and quantifying the suppressed demand.
The study team addressed the issue by using cross-country evidence of the
relationship between income and electricity use (both on a per capita basis).
Figure 6.1 suggests a constant elasticity of electricity demand to income, which
enables the analysis to predict the growth in power demand as income grows to
meet the Vision 20: 2020 objectives: the relationship is displayed by the orange
diamonds, which project the trajectory of Nigeria’s per capita electricity
consumption and income 2008–35.
Figure 6.1 also highlights how Nigeria’s recent grid electricity supply has
lagged far below that of similar countries. Nigeria’s base year consumption is
estimated at 212 kilowatt-hours (kWh) per capita (of which half is off-grid
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78 The Power Sector
Figure 6.1 Annual Per Capita Electricity Use vs. Income for 120 Countries, 2008; Nigeria
Projections, 2008–35
40,000 India 2008 South Africa 2008 USA 2008
20,000 $3,281 $10,237 $45,745
535 kWh 4,605 kWh 12,554 kWh
Electricity use per capita, kWh
10,000
4,000
2,000
Fitted regression
1,000 line = $2,000–$8,000
400
200
Nigeria 2008 Nigeria 2035
100
$2,226 $8,226
212 kWh 1,875 kWh
40
20
1,000 2,000 4,000 6,000 10,000 20,000 40,000 60,000
Income per capita, US$, PPP
120 countries in 2008 Fitted line Nigeria 2008–35
Sources: Income and population, World Development Indicators 2011; Electricity use, USDOE 2009.
Note: Graph points show electricity use per capita against income per capita (at purchasing power parity) for 120 countries in
2008. The trend line in green is fitted to countries with per capita incomes $2,000–8,500, excluding outliers. Projected values
for Nigeria’s per capita electricity consumption and income are shown as orange diamonds, 2008–35).
generation), which is well below the trend line of 300 kWh per capita at the
same income of $2,226 per capita (purchasing power parity [PPP]). The refer-
ence scenario projects a rapid expansion in electricity supply through 2015 that
reflects the Federal Government of Nigeria's (FGN) Vision 20: 2020 plans. The
reference case scenario also projects that post-2015, Nigeria will follow the trend
line, which is an average of other developing countries. This would result in a per
capita consumption of 1,875 kWh/capita in 2035, at a per capita income of
$8,226 (2009 USD at PPP).
The result is that total demand (grid and off-grid) for electricity grows by a
factor of 5.0 by 2020 and 16.8 by 2035 relative to 2009.
Demand is met by a mixture of the five source categories listed in table 6.1,
which includes grid supply, as well as off-grid generation, divided into four
classes, A, B, C, and D, following the Energy Commission of Nigeria (ECN).
The base year estimates of current grid and off-grid generation by category are
based on data and estimates developed with the ECN and the Federal Ministry
of Power (FMP). Because of the considerable uncertainty in these estimates, the
sensitivity of the results to the underlying assumptions is examined in box 6.1.
As grid supplies increase in quantity and reliability, the study projects that off-
grid generation will decline over time. However, the energy used by those with
no grid access, mainly in rural areas (category D) increases over time as incomes
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The Power Sector 79
Table 6.1 Source Categories of Electricity Supply in Nigeria
Supply source/category Description
Grid-supply Generation from the power grid
Off-grid A: Backup Off-grid generation only when on-grid power is unavailable
Off-grid B: Full-time ≥ 1 MW Off-grid generation which is used full-time even though there
is grid access, with generators greater than or equal to 1 MW
(which require government registration)
Off-grid C: Full-time <1 MW Off-grid generation used full-time even though there is grid
access, with generators under 1 MW (not needing government
registration)
Off-grid D: No grid access Generation in rural locations with no grid access
Box 6.1 Estimating Off-Grid Generation and Emissions: A Sensitivity Analysis
Estimating current off-grid capacity and generation is undoubtedly challenging. Generators of
1 MW or greater must be registered with the Federal Ministry of Power (FMP), but there are
limited data on actual usage and the capacity of other off-grid generation beyond some local
surveys. It is yet more challenging to project the future of off-grid generation. For these rea-
sons, studies of power systems for developing countries have usually ignored off-grid genera-
tion. However, given the large contribution of off-grid generation in Nigeria, which is unlikely
to disappear entirely within 25 years, ignoring it would seriously compromise the practical
value of the study. Consequently, the study team chose to include off-grid generation in its
projections, while recognizing the inevitable uncertainty.
Examining the effects of this uncertainty via a sensitivity analysis asks what the results
would be if 2009 off-grid generation was 40 percent less or 40 percent more than the
current estimate. We assume the same percent change in off-grid generation relative to the
base case through 2035, and the same off-grid generation mix over time as described
below for each scenario. The resulting plus or minus 40 percent change in off-grid genera-
tion would change the cumulative total emissions through 2035 by plus or minus
14.9 percent for the reference scenario and plus or minus 15.6 percent for the low-carbon
scenarios, respectively. It would change the reduction in total emissions from the reference
to low-carbon scenario only slightly, from 42.9 percent up to 43.4 percent, or down to
42.6 percent, due to the higher carbon-intensity of off-grid generation relative to grid-
based generation in both scenarios.
rise. As a result, the reference scenario projects that off-grid consumption will
decrease from an estimated 50 percent of total power consumption in 2010 to
about 30 percent in 2035 (see figure 6.2). It is anticipated that off-grid supply
will be increasingly provided by micro-grids—that is, local grids in residential or
industrial areas with their own generation and distribution but not connected to
the national grid.
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80 The Power Sector
Figure 6.2 Projected Grid and Off-Grid Power Consumption, Reference Scenario
550
500 Off-Grid D: No
Grid + off-grid demand, TWh
450 grid access
400 Off-Grid C:
350 Full-time < 1 MW
300
Off-Grid B:
250 Full-time ≥1 MW
200
150 Off-Grid A:
100 Backup
50 Grid
0
2010 2013 2015 2018 2020 2023 2025 2028 2030 2033 2035
Source: Calculations based on FMP and Power Holding Company of Nigeria data and UN 2010 rural/urban population data (for off-grid
D projections) listed in the chapter 3 references.
The Roadmap for Power Sector Reform (FRN 2010) calls for extensive
expansion of transmission capacity to existing grid load centers, but limited
expansion of transmission and distribution to new areas. It is likely that the
grid coverage will be further expanded by 2035 under the auspices of the re-
established Rural Electrification Agency (REA), but given the magnitude of
generation and transmission capacity expansion required just to meet the
currently unmet and growing demand in existing areas (projected to expand
by a factor of 6 by 2020, and 10 by 2035), it seems unlikely that Nigeria will
achieve substantial coverage of rural areas by 2035. However, the projected
economic growth of villages and towns in rural areas will require the benefits
of electricity. Accordingly, the projections of energy consumption for
Category D (off-grid) include a significant increase of total electricity
from 12 percent in 2009 to 21 percent in 2035, or a factor of 30 by 2035 in
kWh.
Grid Transmission and Distribution Losses
The increase in grid-connected generation will require a similar expansion of
transmission capacity. An important sector policy objective is to reduce losses
from transmission and distribution (T&D) in the Nigerian grid, which averaged
about 20 percent in 2009 (NERC 2011). As a result of significant investment
planned for the coming years, the reference scenario projects that technical losses
could be reduced down to about 12 percent after 2025, as shown in table 6.2.
The reference scenario for investment in T&D for 2009–35 assumes a constant
cost of $92.5 million for improvements. The low-carbon scenario assumes a
somewhat more aggressive reduction in T&D losses to 8 percent losses by 2035,
consistent with international best practice. Thus, the low-carbon scenario
assumes that Nigeria could reach a level comparable to that of other developing
countries in the last decade.
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The Power Sector 81
Table 6.2 Planned Reduction in Electricity T&D Losses
percent of generation
2010 2015 2020 2025 2035
Reference 20 19 16 13 12
Low-carbon scenario 20 19 15 12 8
Sources: NERC, Multi-Year Tariff Order 2011 (data for 2009–12); long-term projections based on discussion with stakeholders
at the ECN.
Table 6.3 Nameplate and Available Capacity for Existing Plant and Planned Additions
Plant type Nameplate capacity (MW) Available capacity (MW)
Existing plants in 2010 Hydro 2,230 1,108
SCGT 6,150 2,286
CCGT 1,100 769
Total 9,480 4,164
Planned additions 2011–22 Hydro 3,550 2,286
SCGT 6,921 5,506
CCGT 960 778
Total 11,431 8,571
Total Hydro 5,780 3,395
SCGT 13,071 7,793
CCGT 2,060 1,547
Total 20,911 12,735
Source: Summarized from the Nigeria Federal Ministry of Power.
Note: SCGT = single-cycle gas turbine; CCGT = combined cycle gas turbine. Totals may not sum exactly due to rounding.
Grid Generating Capacity in the Base Year
Existing grid-generation capacity in Nigeria is about 26 percent hydropower; the
rest is by gas turbines, which are 56 percent open cycle and 18 percent combined
cycle. As shown in table 6.3, in 2010 nameplate capacity totaled about
9.5 gigawatts (GW), of which about 4.2 GW was actually available because of
problems with maintenance, gas supplies, and, in the case of hydro, dam siltation
and low river flows. However, these numbers are increasing rapidly as units are
refurbished and new capacity comes online. About 11.4 GW nameplate capacity
is planned by 2022, most of it by 2016.
These estimates have been used in the modeling of installed capacity over
time, as shown in table 6.4.
Fossil-Fuel Price Projections
The prices of fossil fuels, especially natural gas, diesel, gasoline, and coal, are key
factors in determining the competitiveness of generation technologies. In Nigeria,
the diesel market is relatively open: most diesel is imported and prices are close
to global market prices. Natural gas has long been regulated and gasoline
subsidized, resulting in prices much lower than global market prices.
This study assumes that natural gas will move toward “export parity” by
2015—that is, the global market price, less a percentage reflecting export and
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82 The Power Sector
Table 6.4 New Generation Capacity by Technology for the Reference Scenario
Installed capacity (GW)
Reference scenario 2010 2015 2025 2035
Grid technologies
SCGT 6.5 18.0 30.0 52.0
CCGT 1.1 2.0 5.0 21.0
Hydropower 1.9 2.1 7.2 7.2
Coal subcritical 0.0 0.0 3.5 10.0
Nuclear 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0
Subtotala 9.5 22.1 46.7 91.2
Off-grid technologies
Diesel generators 3.0 4.6 9.6 19.0
Gasoline generators 1.3 2.6 5.0 6.0
Gas turbines 0.0 1.3 7.0 13.0
Subtotal 4.3 8.5 21.6 38.0
Total 13.8 30.6 68.3 129.2
Source: Calculations based on data sources listed in the chapter 3 references.
a. Less than half of the 2010 installed capacity was actually utilized due to lack of fuel, inadequate maintenance, and other
problems.
transportation costs from Nigeria. It also assumes that diesel and gasoline will
tend to “import parity” by 2015—global market prices plus 12 percent reflecting
the cost of transportation and import to Nigeria. It further projects that Nigeria’s
refinery capacity, much of which is currently nonoperational, will be refurbished
and expanded between 2015 and 2020, with the result that most domestically
consumed diesel and gasoline will be produced domestically. Hence, it projects
that their prices will shift from import parity to export parity over that time—
global market prices less 12 percent to reflect the savings from domestic produc-
tion, a net reduction of 24 percent. Global fuel price projections are based on the
U.S. Department of Energy Annual Energy Outlook (USDOE 2011) reference
scenario for fuel prices through 2035. Figure 6.3 shows the resulting levelized
fuel prices, which are estimated as the net present value (NPV) of fuel costs over
the plant life of a given type of technology that uses that fuel, cut off at the
modeling horizon.
Costs of Grid-Connected and Off-Grid Technologies
Figure 6.4 projects the LCOE for a wide variety of grid-connected
technologies in Nigeria by year of installation to 2035. Those technologies
that use fuel are based on the fuel costs in the figure. The costs of most of
these technologies, especially solar and wind, assume a reduction in capital
cost over time to reflect learning curves, driven by the increase in global
capacity of a technology as a result of both technological improvements and
economies of scale.
The early growth in the LCOE for gas turbines (both single-cycle gas
turbine [SCGT] and combined-cycle gas turbine [CCGT]) is driven by the
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The Power Sector 83
Figure 6.3 Levelized Fuel Costs over Plant Lifetimes, 2009
30
28
25
23
20
USD/gigajoule
18
15
13
10
8
5
3
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Diesel Biomass feedstock Natural gas
Petrol Coal Nuclear
Sources: NERC, Multi-Year Tariff Order 2011 (data for 2009–12); USDOE 2011; World Bank 2011a.
Figure 6.4 LCOE Projections for Grid Supply Technologies
250
225
200
175
150
USD/MWh
125
100
75
50
25
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
CSP Coal CCS Hydropower CCGT
Solar PV (Grid) Biomass power Coal subcritical
Wind turbine Nuclear Gas single cycle
Sources: USDOE 2009; IEA 2010b.
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84 The Power Sector
expected increase in gas prices, reflecting FGN policies to allow gas prices to
approach global market prices. The economic benefits of more efficient
CCGTs over SCGTs increase over time as gas prices increase. The projected
LCOE for concentrated solar power (CSP) and photovoltaic (PV), assuming
International Energy Agency (IEA) learning rates, suggest that they are likely
to become cost-competitive with SCGT before 2030 and with CCGT before
2035.
Wind energy does not seem competitive in Nigeria based on the limited wind-
speed data available, but a more extensive survey of wind speeds may still iden-
tify economically viable locations. Neither coal with carbon capture and storage
(CCS) nor biomass power is likely to be competitive with gas purely on
economics, unless the carbon savings can be monetized with Clean Development
Mechanisms (CDMs) or other means. However, it should be noted that there is
great uncertainty about future learning rates for renewables, as well as the
possibility of larger increases in global fuel prices than the Energy Information
Agency’s (EIA) reference scenario.
Off-grid generation typically uses diesel and gasoline generators. Current costs
for these were based on information obtained from vendors in Nigeria. For other
off-grid technologies, the cost estimates were obtained from international
sources, adjusted to reflect the more rapid cost reductions in PV from 2008 to
2012 and local conditions. The costs of hybrid PV-wind-diesel system derive
from a project analyzing the economics of hybrid systems for a small community
in Egbeda, Nigeria. Figure 6.5 compares these projected LCOE estimates for off-
grid technologies.
Figure 6.5 Projected LCOE for Off-Grid Technologies in Nigeria
450
400
350
300
US$/MWh
250
200
150
100
50
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Off-grid gasoline generators Off-grid diesel generators (5 MW)
Off-grid solar PV Off-grid small hydro
Off-grid hybrid PV-W-D Off-grid gas turbine
Off-grid diesel generators (0.17 MW)
Sources: ESMAP 2007; IEA 2010a.
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The Power Sector 85
The Reference Scenario
The reference scenario projects the rapid addition of new grid-connected
generation capacity to meet the existing known suppressed demand and the
anticipated rapid growth in demand over the coming years. It adds to the current
capacity and planned expansion a fuel mix that does not change substantially
from Nigeria’s existing use of natural gas, hydropower, and diesel, except for the
addition of 10 GW coal and 1 GW of nuclear power by 2035. Both of these are
in existing plans but not currently used in Nigeria.
Natural Gas
Nigeria’s abundant natural gas supplies make natural gas the current dominant
source for the grid-connected generation of electricity. Most existing genera-
tion uses SCGT because of the low domestic price of gas and its more favor-
able investment requirement. In recent years, power generation has been
limited by insufficient access to natural gas because of difficulties with trans-
portation from gas production wells in the Niger Delta and offshore and
because foreign sales (as LNG) have offered higher prices. The FGN has made
it a top priority to remove these bottlenecks by adopting new policies allowing
local gas prices to increase approaching global market prices to encourage
greater supply.
Based on existing FGN plans and consultations with Nigerian power stake-
holders, the reference scenario projects that new gas plants will include CCGT—
leading to up to 22 percent of gas-fueled capacity by 2035—which through their
greater efficiency give a lower LCOE at future higher gas prices, despite their
higher initial cost.
Hydropower
Nigeria has significant hydropower potential. It currently has 2.2 GW hydro
capacity installed, although some of that requires maintenance and is not being
used for generation. The reference scenario follows FGN plans and feedback
from stakeholders calling for rehabilitating all installed capacity. It projects
increasing hydropower up to 7.2 GW by 2035.
Coal
Nigeria has significant reserves of coal. The coal industry produced over half a
million tons per year in the 1950s and 1960s, until production declined precipi-
tously due to combined effects from the discovery of oil and the Nigerian Civil
War (1967–70). The coal industry has not yet recovered substantially. However,
plans to develop coal mines with electricity generation at the mine mouth are in
early stages.
Based on consultations with members of the FGN and stakeholders, the
study team projected for the reference scenario 10 GW of coal generation
being brought on-stream between 2020 and 2035, using subcritical
technology.
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86 The Power Sector
Nuclear
In recent years, the FGN has developed plans for its first nuclear power plant.
The NAEC has provided a road map that calls for 1 GW of nuclear power
by 2020. Based on this policy decision to pursue nuclear power, FGN is inviting
a first bid for construction, which is unlikely to begin till at least 2020 (Lowbeer-
Lewis 2010). The reference scenario includes 1 GW of nuclear power.
Diesel, Gasoline, and Gas Turbine Off-Grid Generation
Currently, off-grid power generation is significant, and diesel is the principal fuel,
accompanied by many additional small gasoline-fueled generators. The reference
scenario adds, in future years, 5.5 megawatts (MW) of off-grid gas turbines where
the pipeline distribution network makes this fuel available, principally in the
Niger Delta and South Coast. In the reference case, one-third of total off-grid
generation is expected to be gas-based by 2035, while diesel will be the fuel of
choice in less accessible regions. The resultant reference scenario of installed on-
and off-grid generating capacity is shown in table 6.4.
The electricity generated by each technology in the reference case scenario
and the resultant carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) emissions are shown in
figures 6.6 and 6.7, respectively.
The average carbon intensity in the reference scenario changes little over time.
The increased emissions from coal are approximately counterbalanced by the
lower carbon intensity from additional hydro, larger proportion of CCGT, and
off-grid gas. Figure 6.8 compares total emissions for the reference scenario with
a Business-As-Usual (BAU) Scenario that generates the same quantity of energy
using a constant technology mix as in the base year.
Figure 6.6 Reference Scenario: Electricity Generation by Technology
700
600 Off-grid gas
turbine
500 Off-grid diesel
generators
TWh/year
400
Off-grid gasoline
generators
300
Nuclear
Hydropower
200
Coal subcritical
100 CCGT
SCGT
0
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034
Source: Calculations based on data sources listed in the chapter 3 references.
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The Power Sector 87
Figure 6.7 Reference Scenario: Emissions by Generation Technology
400
350
300 O -grid gas turbine
250 O -grid diesel
Mt CO2e/year
generators
200 O -grid gasoline
generators
150 Coal subcritical
CCGT
100
SCGT
50
0
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034
Source: Calculations based on data sources listed in the chapter 3 references.
Figure 6.8 Total Carbon Emissions in the Reference and BAU Scenarios
400
350
300
250
Mt CO2e/year
200
150
100
50
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
BAU Reference
Source: Calculations based on data sources listed in the chapter 3 references.
Note: The BAU scenario generates the same energy as the reference scenario, using a constant technology mix as in the
base year.
Low-Carbon Power Technologies
The study developed an alternative low-carbon scenario which would enable
Nigeria to achieve the same long term sector development objectives, at lower
overall cost (7 percent less in NPV terms), through a mix of generation sources
more diversified across technologies and geographically, and with a more
significant future use of distributed and off-grid generation. As a co-benefit, such
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88 The Power Sector
Table 6.5 Two Scenarios for Power Sector Development to 2035
Annual generation NPV of generation costs Cumulative Diversity of
in 2035 (US$billions) emissions generation
Capital and Complement of
Scenarios TWh O&M Fuel Total Mt CO2e Gini index (%)
Reference case 620 52 127 178 4,335 17
Low-carbon 525 71 94 166 2,475 34
Source: Calculations based on data sources listed in the chapter 3 references.
an alternative model would also generate significant reduction of greenhouse gas
(GHG) emissions, estimated to be in the range of 2–2.5 billion t CO2e over the
whole evaluation period (2010–35). A comparison between the low-carbon and
reference scenario is shown in table 6.5.
The elements that change in the low-carbon scenarios (compared to the refer-
ence case) include demand-side energy efficiency (EE) measures, T&D loss
reduction, power generation from renewables (wind, solar PV, concentrated solar,
waste-to-power, biomass, large and small hydro), more efficient fossil fuel com-
bustion, and hybrid off-grid solutions.
The process of defining the content of the low-carbon scenario involved
evaluating the resource potential of each relevant technology option, projecting
the impact of each option on the LCOE for each year in the study period, assess-
ing the barriers to introduction, and carefully selecting the most favorable mix of
technologies for inclusion. The analysis used criteria such as cost minimization,
balancing intermittent solar and wind with dispatchable gas and hydro, and
seizing opportunities to build a geographically balanced portfolio of generation
sources and adding robustness in the face of uncertainties in fuel prices, the cost
and availability of renewables, and the contribution of hydropower given
increasing variation in levels of rainfall.
Combined Cycle Natural Gas
Nigeria’s large reservoirs of natural gas make it natural that gas turbines will con-
tinue to play a major role even in a low-carbon scenario. In this scenario, most new
gas turbines would be CCGT, which have higher capital costs than single-cycle
gas turbines, but as fuel prices increase, generate electricity at lower LCOE and
with lower emissions due to their greater efficiency. Despite its potential, CCGT
will not often be spontaneously adopted by private-sector investors due to
barriers to financing. In Nigeria, the tariff level offered under the Multi-Year Tariff
Order (MYTO) by the National Electric Regulatory Commission (NERC) is cur-
rently being restructured to encourage more private-sector CCGT investment.
Supercritical Coal with CCS
The low-carbon scenario assumes that 5 GW of supercritical coal with CCS is
added into the technology mix in the outer years. This assumption is based on
expert judgment drawing on consultations with Nigerian agencies and World Bank
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The Power Sector 89
staff and comparison with other countries. The inclusion of CCS allows for the
offsetting of emissions from coal-fired power plants, thus offering potential for
emissions reduction over time, but with a notable increase in fuel use and
capital costs.
Large Hydropower
According to the ECN (Zarma 2006) Nigeria has a great potential for hydro-
power. Large hydropower currently accounts for over 20 percent of the total
installed commercial electric power capacity. Hydropower is capable of load
following to generate power when needed to compensate for peak demand and
when other renewable sources are not available. The reference scenario assumes
reaching 7.2 GW of hydropower by 2025. The low-carbon scenario should make
use of the maximum potential for large-scale hydropower available, presently
estimated by the ECN at 11.2 GW.
Wind
The potential for wind power has yet to be well-characterized for much of Africa
and for Nigeria in particular. The Africa Wind Atlas prepared by the African
Development Bank (AfDB 2004) gives average wind speed on a coarse meso-scale
50-kilometer grid based on a simulation model rather than direct measurement.
The atlas (see map 6.1) estimates average wind speeds of 4–5 meters/second
at 50 meters' height in Northern and West Central Nigeria, which has been cor-
roborated by limited measurements performed in 2005 by the Federal Ministry
of Science and Technology (FMST 2005). The study team extrapolated these
wind speeds to a height of 80 meters, more relevant for utility-scale wind farms
in Nigeria. These results are roughly consistent with the meso-scale Africa Wind
Atlas, except for Ninth Mile Corner (Enugu).
The study estimates that Nigeria has a potential for 19 GW of wind turbines
producing about 50 gigawatt-hours (GWh) per year, mostly in the Northern and
West Central regions. Expanding the fraction of suitable land developed from 1
to 2 percent of course would double these quantities. However, there is an urgent
need for more extensive wind speed measurements to identify the most promis-
ing areas for wind development.
Concentrated Solar Power (CSP)
The potential for solar power, both CSP and PV, is better characterized than
wind, since it is possible to get reasonable estimates from satellite observations.
Due to its reflective design, CSP requires direct solar radiation, usually mea-
sured as direct normal irradiation (DNI). CSP developers typically suggest a
minimum DNI of 1,500 kilowatt-hours per square meter per year (kWh/m2/
year) (Fluri 2009) or 2,100 kWh/m2/year (IEA 2010a) for commercial viability.
The northern, especially northeastern, regions of Nigeria are most suitable for
CSP projects with DNI between 1,900 and 2,300 kWh/m2/year (map 6.2),
similar to Spain, the world’s second largest developer of CSP.
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90 The Power Sector
Map 6.1 Average Wind-Speed Map for Africa and Nigeria
Source: Amended map, based on the Africa Wind Atlas, AfDB 2004.
Note: Average wind-speed at 50 m height as simulated by meso-scale (50 km grid) model from Africa Wind Atlas. Inset: expanded view of Nigeria
overlaid with average wind speed at 90 m at 10 locations (red dots), extrapolated from measurements.
The study estimates that the fraction of each northern state suitable for
CSP, eliminating areas with a slope greater than 3 percent, results in a total
potential of 27,000 terawatt-hours (TWh) per year or 428 GW. These
numbers are far greater than the plausible demand in Nigeria, implying that
the CSP potential is limited by demand and capital rather than physical
limitations of sun or land.
CSP may also be supplemented with gas in an integrated combined-cycle
system to generate power during extended cloudy periods. However, integrated
CSP and gas would require extending gas pipelines to the areas in northern
Nigeria most suited for CSP, which is currently not part of the FGN’s plans.
Solar Photovoltaics
Like most tropical regions, Nigeria has abundant solar radiation. Map 6.3 shows
solar irradiation levels for Nigeria using the flat plate tilted at latitude at a
40-kilometer resolution (NREL 2005). This metric includes direct and diffuse
radiation, appropriate for photovoltaic panels at the optimal fixed tilt for that
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The Power Sector 91
Map 6.2 Nigeria’s Annual Direct Normal Solar Radiation for CSP
Source: NREL 2005. Adapted for this study with enlargement of Nigeria.
latitude. Using this metric, the radiation is adequate for PV, even in the South, in
the range 1,500–2,000 kWh/m2 per year.
The average solar irradiation in Nigeria is 2011 kWh/m2 per year. Covering
1 percent of the land area of Nigeria would produce about 1,833 TWh/year
of energy with an installed capacity of 1,046 GW.1 This simple calculation
makes clear that PV in Nigeria, like CSP, is not limited by the resource poten-
tial. The actual capacity installed will be constrained by capital costs and
energy needs.
Waste-to-Power, Biomass, and Small Hydro
Other sources of power include using municipal waste to generate methane to
generate power, combusting other biomass to make power, and small-scale
(micro or pico) hydropower. Their potential is summarized in table 6.6. These
technologies are promising and advantageous with suitable local conditions, and
are well worth pursuing. However, their total potential is relatively modest
compared to the overall demand for power.
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92 The Power Sector
Map 6.3 Insolation Levels for PV Power in Nigeria
Source: NREL 2005. Adapted for this study with enlargement of Nigeria.
Note: Map is based on average annual flat plate tilted at latitude.
Table 6.6 Potential Contribution from Waste-to-Power, Biomass, and Small Hydropower
2015 2025 2035
GW GWh/year GW GWh/year GW GWh/year
Waste-to-power 0.00 0 0.01 87 0.04 350
Biomass to power 0.25 1,643 1.00 6,570 2.00 13,140
Small hydroa 0.10 526 3.00 15,770 3.40 17,870
Source: Calculations based on data from UNIDO 2011 and USEPA 2010 and data listed in the chapter 3 references.
a. This calculation assumes 60 percent system efficiency.
Low-Carbon Generation Mix
The generation resulting from the technology mix defined in the low-carbon
scenario is shown in table 6.7, and compared to the reference scenario. Over
time, the alternative scenario develops a more diverse portfolio of technologies
than the reference scenario. Grid-connected technologies still include a substan-
tial amount of gas, but with a larger proportion of CCGT, because their greater
efficiency results in a lower cost of generation than SCGT at projected higher gas
prices, and somewhat lower emissions.
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Table 6.7 Generation Capacity Mix in the Reference and Low-Carbon Scenarios
Base Reference scenario Low-carbon scenario
Installed capacity (GW)
Technologies 2010 2015 2025 2035 2015 2025 2035
Grid a
Gas single cycle 6.5 18.2 30.2 51.8 16.7 15.8 15.6
Gas combined cycle 1.1 1.7 4.8 20.7 1.7 11.4 36.6
Coal subcritical 0.0 0.0 3.3 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Coal carbon capture and storage 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 5.0
Hydropower 1.9 2.0 7.2 7.2 2.0 8.2 11.2
Biomass power 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.0
Concentrated solar power 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.7 10.0
Nuclear 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Solar photovoltaics 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.7 10.0
Wind turbine 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.9 10.0
Off-grid
Gasoline generator 1.3 2.6 4.9 6.3 2.5 2.9 4.2
Diesel generator 3.1 4.6 9.6 18.8 4.4 7.0 6.2
Gas turbine 0.0 1.3 7.0 12.6 1.2 2.9 5.2
Small hydro 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 3.6
Solar photovoltaics 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 5.9 16.3
Hybrid PV-wind-diesel 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.9 11.4
Total 13.9 30.4 67.8 128.3 29.3 67.7 147.5
a. Less than half of the 2010 installed capacity was actually utilized due to lack of fuel, inadequate maintenance, and other problems.
93
94 The Power Sector
In 2015 the low-carbon scenario adds 100 MW each of PV, CSP, wind, and
biomass power. These are intended as demonstration projects to evaluate their
technical and economic viability in Nigeria and to build local expertise to
enable rapid adoption of these renewable energy sources as soon as they
become economically viable. The scenario projects further addition of these
grid-connected renewable technologies by 2025 and more substantial capacity
by 2035, reflecting the anticipated reduction in costs to reach “grid parity” dur-
ing that time. It includes a more aggressive expansion of hydropower, which
provides low- carbon electricity and is also dispatchable to balance intermittent
solar and wind power.
Off-grid capacity, as described above, includes a more rapid addition of PV
and hybrid, since they are rapidly becoming less expensive than diesel and
gasoline generation, respectively reaching 16 GW and 11 GW by 2035. Off-
grid generation is currently mostly for backup or replacement of unreliable
grid power. Expanding off-grid generation in rural villages and towns away
from the grid will supply pumping, irrigation, and public lighting, followed
by residential applications and light industry associated with food and agri-
culture. The low-carbon scenario projects similar total capacity to the refer-
ence scenario up to 2025. It needs a higher total of 147 GW in 2035 to
compensate for the lower capacity factors of solar, wind, and hybrid
systems.
An important feature of the low-carbon scenario is that it entails a significant
degree of diversification of energy sources across the national territory with grid
generation near load centers in key regions (map 6.4). In particular, oil and gas
are concentrated in the South and offshore, hydropower in central and southern
Nigeria, coal deposits in the South and East, direct solar radiance for CSP in the
Northeast (orange areas), good PV potential in most areas, and promising wind
sites in the North and offshore.
As the country with Africa’s largest population, with substantial revenues
from oil and gas and a wide diversity of energy resources, Nigeria has the
potential to become a regional leader in the energy technologies of
the future. Growth prospects for grid-based solar power (PV and CSP) are
significant: according to the EIA’s International Energy Outlook 2011
(USDOE 2011) solar power generation will grow 10 percent a year
worldwide in the next 20 years, but 24 percent a year in Africa. By investing
early enough in renewable energy, Nigeria has the opportunity to become a
regional leader in a quickly expanding market, and perhaps of establishing
itself as a regional hub for technology development and deployment in the
rest of Africa.
Demand-Side Measures in the Low-Carbon Scenario
Improvements in energy efficiency (EE) are often the most cost-effective
options for reducing carbon emissions. The “costs” are often negative, that is,
efficiency improvements pay for themselves within a few years or even months,
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The Power Sector 95
Map 6.4 Diversification of Energy Sources in the Alternative Case Scenario
Sources: PVGIS © European Communities, 2001–12, HelioClim-1 © MINES ParisTech, Centre Energetique et Procedes, 2001–08, amended and
reproduced by the study team with the permission from PVGIS; further permission required for reuse.
Note: Map color represents Direct Normal Irradiation (DNI), a measure of solar intensity relevant to concentrated solar power (CSP). The map
provides a stylized illustration of the distribution across Nigeria of sources of energy. Oil and gas are concentrated in the South and offshore;
hydropower in central and southern Nigeria; coal deposits in the South and East; direct solar radiance for CSP in the Northeast (orange areas);
good photovoltaic (PV) potential is found in most areas; and promising wind sites in the North and offshore.
even ignoring the benefits of reduced emissions. The advantages of EE programs
are even more dramatic when electricity is expensive, for example, from off-grid
generators or when the grid is capacity-constrained, as in Nigeria. Programs to
improve EE include using compact fluorescent lamps (CFLs) and light-emitting
diodes (LEDs) instead of inefficient incandescent lights; clear labeling to help
consumers understand the cost savings from efficient equipment; and efficiency
standards for refrigerators, air conditioning, and other appliances. There are also
programs to use more energy-efficient industrial equipment, including electric
motors, chillers, and heaters. The ECN in partnership with the UN Development
Programme (UNDP) has recently initiated a 4-year program to promote EE in
the residential and public sectors in Nigeria (UNDP 2011).
In addition to end-user savings, demand-side EE measures can reduce the
need for new generating capacity and its large associated capital costs. Assuming
lighting is used at peak load, typically at 17:00–21:00 hours in Nigeria, each CFL
can reduce peak demand by 46 watts per bulb compared to a 60-watt incandes-
cent. The CFL’s upfront capital cost is about US$51/kW (at a cost of US$2.33
per bulb). In comparison, the lowest capital cost of new generation capacity is
US$408/kW for diesel generators and US$816/kW for grid-connected open
cycle gas turbines (OCGTs), factors of 8 and 16 times, respectively. The low-
carbon scenario assumes a lighting efficiency program, including an eventual ban
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96 The Power Sector
on incandescent lamps, and replaces 50 percent of these lamps by 2016,
increasing to 98 percent by 2020. Such a lighting program would decrease total
electricity demand by 9.9 percent in 2020, including 4.4 percent on-grid and
5.5 percent off-grid.
The proportion of electricity used for lighting tends to be high in econo-
mies with low gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and reduces as the
economy becomes more developed. The ECN (2010) estimated that 48
percent of the nation’s power was used for lighting in 2009. This is high rela-
tive to estimates for other countries, such as 10–15 percent in South Africa
(Henderson 1997) and 13–29 percent in India (Mills 2002), but comparable
with estimates for other countries in the Economic Community of West
African States (ECOWAS), including Benin (41.9 percent), Burkina Faso
(52.4 percent), Mali (31.8 percent) and Senegal (36.1 percent) (de Gouvello,
Dayo, and Thioye 2008). For this study, the team estimates conservatively that
32 percent of power was used for lighting in 2010, decreasing to 23 percent
in 2035. Much of the remaining fraction of electricity is used in different types
of appliances. Appliance efficiency standards could significantly reduce elec-
tricity consumption. Negligible data are available in Nigeria on appliance
energy consumption—which will soon be rectified through the ECN/UNDP
program—so this analysis draws on other sources, such as a World Bank study
of the potential of EE measures in India, which projects a reduction in demand
by 2031 of 23 percent in residential use and about 10 percent each in
commercial and industry applications and other programs for Latin America
where savings range from 20 to 40 percent in Mexico, Brazil, and Argentina
(UNDP 2000). The largest residential appliance energy savings come from
improvements in refrigerators, televisions, fans, and—as income grows—air
conditioning. Since most appliances are imported, a “top runner” program like
that in Japan, in which the most efficient model on the market is used to set
future efficiency standards, would also make sense.
The study ignores rebound effect in which the use of more efficient devices
might lead to increased usage. Figure 6.9 shows the potential energy savings from
EE programs as a percentage of reference case energy demand.
Lower Power Costs in the Low-Carbon Scenario
Long-term projections of costs of different generation technologies are inevitably
uncertain, but the difference in LCOE separating renewable from thermal gen-
eration is likely to decline over time. The prices of natural gas and diesel in
Nigeria are expected to increase from submarket rates toward “export-parity”
and “import-parity,” respectively. They are then expected to increase further with
global fossil fuel prices, as projected by the U.S. Department of Energy
(USDOE 2011). At the same time, the economies of scale and the learning
curves are expected to reduce the costs of renewables. The total expenditures
on generation of electricity over time for the two scenarios are shown in
figure 6.10.
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The Power Sector 97
Figure 6.9 Potential Energy Savings from EE Programs in the Low-Carbon Option
% of reference case energy demand
20
18
Percentage of energy savings
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
10
15
20
25
30
35
20
20
20
20
20
20
EE lighting on-grid EE other on-grid
EE lighting off-grid EE other off-grid
Source: Calculations based on data sources listed in the chapter 3 references.
Figure 6.10 Total Annual Electricity Expenditurea for Reference and Low-Carbon Scenarios
as Percentage of GDP
6
Expenditure percentage of GDP
5
4
3
2
1
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Reference scenario
Low-carbon scenario
Source: Calculations based on data sources listed in the chapter 3 references.
a. Total annual expenditure includes capital, operation and maintenance, and fuel costs.
For both scenarios, the total cost increases from about 3.5 to 5.5 percent of
GDP in 2013, reflecting the ambitious expansion and consequent capital expen-
ditures planned in the Roadmap (FRN 2010).
After 2016 expenditures diminish as a percentage of GDP. The two scenarios
remain very close until 2025. After 2025 the low-carbon scenario is consistently
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98 The Power Sector
Figure 6.11 Breakdown of Total Expenditure into Capital, O&M, and Fuel Costs
a. Reference case scenario
70
60
50
Expenditure, US$, billions
40
30
20
10
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
b. Low-carbon scenario
50
Expenditure, US$, billions
40
30
20
10
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Capital cost O&M cost Fuel cost
Source: Calculations based on data sources listed in the chapter 3 references.
lower in cost. This reflects savings from EE programs and, in later years, from the
lower operating costs of renewable power, especially off-grid.
Figure 6.11 breaks down the total costs for the two scenarios by capital,
operation and maintenance (O&M), and fuel costs. It clearly shows how capital
costs are significantly larger for the low-carbon scenario, but that these are
outweighed by its much lower fuel cost after 2025, resulting in noticeably lower
NPV total costs.
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The Power Sector 99
GHG Emissions Reduction in the Low-Carbon Scenario
The wedge chart in figure 6.12 shows the reduction in emissions in each year
as a result of implementing the low-carbon scenario. The topmost line shows
the emissions from the reference scenario, reaching 372 million metric tons
(Mt) CO2e per year in 2035.
The bottom cross-hatched area shows the emissions from the low-carbon
scenario reaching 164 Mt CO2e/year in 2035. This is a reduction of 56 percent
in annual emissions in 2035 or a reduction of 43 percent in cumulative emissions
from 2010 to 2035.
The “wedges” located between the reference emissions line and the low-
carbon area represent emissions avoided by the different low-carbon interven-
tions. The interventions include abatement from EE for on-grid and off-grid
lighting, respectively; other EE options; savings in emissions from CCGTs
relative to OCGTs; and grid-based wind, PV, and CSP. The largest contribu-
tors to total abatement comprise off-grid PV and hybrid photovoltaic/wind/
diesel.
Assumptions about Costs of Fossil Fuel and Renewables
While the cost assumptions in the low-carbon scenario are consistent with
recent projections of a variety of credible international sources, including IEA
(2011), USDOE (2011), and DECC (2011), inevitable uncertainty remains
regarding the future domestic and export prices of fossil fuels and about the
future capital cost of renewables. To evaluate these assumptions, the team used
a sensitivity analysis to explore a “delayed low-carbon scenario” in which adop-
tion of renewables is delayed by 5–10 years due to lower fuel prices and slower
learning curves.
This scenario reduced cumulative emissions through 2035 by 40 percent rela-
tive to the reference scenario, compared to a 43 percent reduction in the original
low-carbon scenario. It cost about the same as the original low-carbon scenario
and slightly more than the base case. This implies substantial robustness to key
uncertainties of the main findings of the analysis.
Sensitivity Analysis of the Effects of GDP Growth on Emissions
Long-term economic growth is hard to forecast. To capture this uncertainty, it is
useful to consider, in addition to the “high growth” projection assumed for the
study’s reference scenario, a “medium growth” scenario (where the economy
grows at a constant annual rate of 6 percent); as well as the more ambitious
“Vision 20: 2020 growth” target, in which the economy grows at an annual rate
of 13 percent through 2020 (see chapter 3 for a more detailed discussion of these
scenarios).
Table 6.8 explores the effects of these three alternative GDP growth cases at
the horizon year 2035. The resulting total GDP varies by a factor of 2 from $801
billion for the medium growth case up to $1,623 billion for the Vision 20: 2020
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100
Figure 6.12 Projected Reductions of Emissions in the Low-Carbon Scenario
400
EE lighting on-grid
350
EE lighting off-grid
EE other on-grid
300
EE other off-grid
T&D Loss reduction
250 CCGT
Mt CO2e
Coal CCS
200 Biomass power
Wind turbine
150 Solar PV (Grid)
CSP
100 Hydropower
Off-grid small hydro
50 Off-grid solar PV
Off-grid hybrid PV-W-D
Low-carbon scenario
0
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035
Source: Calculations based on data sources listed in the chapter 3 references.
The Power Sector 101
Table 6.8 Effect of GDP Growth Cases in 2035 on Power Demand and Emissions for
Reference and Low-Carbon Scenarios
GDP growth cases Medium growth High growth Vision 20: 2020
GDP ($billions) 801 1,183 1,623
Change in GDP from high growth (%) −32 0 37
Change in elec. demand for reference scenario (%) −44 0 59
Emissions for reference scenario (Mt CO2e/year) 210 371 590
Emissions for low-carbon scenario (Mt CO2e/year) 92 164 260
Percent reduction in emissions from reference to
low-carbon scenario 56 56 56
Source: Calculations based on data sources listed in the chapter 3 references.
case, compared to the $1,183 billion for the high growth reference case.
Assuming the same population, this implies that per capita income would
decrease by 32 percent for the medium growth case or increase by 37 percent
for the Vision 20: 2020 case. The elasticity of demand for electricity per capita
with respect to income per capita of 1.46 (estimated from the cross-country
analysis in figure 6.1) implies that electricity demand would decrease by
44 percent or increase by 59 percent, respectively, relative to the high growth
GDP case.
The next two rows of the table show the resulting effect of GDP growth on
the total emissions for the reference and the low-carbon scenarios. They are pro-
jected to decrease or increase in direct proportion to the electricity demand,
assuming that the percentage mix of generation technologies and EE options in
2035 remain the same (in these scenarios). While the changes in absolute emis-
sions are substantial relative to the high-growth GDP case (decrease of
44 percent or increase of 59 percent), it is interesting that the percentage reduc-
tion in emissions from the reference to low-carbon scenario at 56 percent is
unaffected by the GDP growth rate.
Recommendations for the Power Sector
Table 6.9 summarizes the recommendations for a low-carbon plan for
Nigeria, divided into near term 2012–15, and mid-term to 2020. The imme-
diate priority must be to expand generation and grid capacity in accordance
with the Roadmap. Not only is an adequate electricity supply essential for
economic growth, but it will start to reduce carbon emissions by replacing
some off-grid diesel generation with more efficient and lower-cost gas
turbines.
The low-carbon scenario projects capacity mix by technology to 2035. It is
intended to indicate one possible future, not as specific recommendations about
what should happen. Future decisions should be based on the evolving situation
and information available when they must be made, especially the relative costs
and practicality of energy resources and technologies.
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102 The Power Sector
Table 6.9 Recommendations for the Power Sector
Near term: 2012–15 Mid-term: 2015–20
Improve energy data Survey off-grid energy use and generation
Survey power consumption
Measure wind resources
Share energy data online
Energy efficiency (EE) Promote efficient lighting (CFLs)
Develop appliance efficiency standards
Promote energy literacy and education programs
Create efficiency incentives
Grid-connected power Barge-mounted gas turbines for rapid, flexible deployment Expand hydropower
Amend MYTO to incentivize CCGT via conversions and new Expand combined-cycle gas
builds generation
Actively develop plans for large-scale renewables, especially Demonstration projects for grid-
hydro, but also large demonstration projects for PV, CSP, connected PV, CSP, and wind.
and wind
Off-grid power Promote solar PV for water pumping, irrigation, and lighting Promote solar PV and hybrid for
Promote natural gas where available to replace diesel other applications
Develop small hydro
Integrated planning Develop a comprehensive, spatially disaggregated Integrate planning for gas and
process engineering systems analysis of generation, grid, and off- CSP
grid as a basis for long-range planning Encourage integration of
Consider siting of renewables when expanding power grid distributed generation into
the grid
Policies Let prices of fossil fuels revert to global market prices and let
electricity tariffs reflect full costs (already happening)
Design net-zero, feed-in tariffs (FITs) and other incentives for
low-carbon options
Develop policies to promote off-grid hybrid and renewables
Develop human resources for low-carbon technology and
businesses
Build demonstration and training projects
Develop financing mechanisms
Recommendation: Establish Supply Side Opportunities
• Create incentives for high-efficiency CCGT both via conversions of exist-
ing plants and new builds; this could be done by amendments to the
MYTO (new tariffs) for CCGT generators, to offset their higher capital
costs.
• Actively develop large-scale renewables (including hydropower plants, PVs,
and perhaps wind) with a full feasibility analysis for three major projects to be
ready for construction by 2014.
• Develop a concrete policy framework to promote off-grid hybrid and renew-
able energy generation. This framework might include exemptions from tax
and import duties, and light touch regulation for renewable projects under
10 MW for renewables.
Recommendation: Promote Energy Efficiency with Short-Term Actions
As discussed earlier, EE projects can have a major near-term synergistic value
when expanding access to power by reducing rate of growth in demand at a
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dramatically lower cost per peak watt than new generating capacity. Key
programs might include the following:
• National roll-out of a program to promote CFLs;
• Acceleration of consumer metering program; and
• Implementation of EE standards for appliances and industrial machinery.
Specific activities to establish these programs follow.
Recommendation: Improve Energy Data
To develop a low-carbon plan to reflect actual conditions in Nigeria, rather than
estimates adapted from other countries, there is a need for additional data to fill
in critical gaps. Key areas include:
Action Recommendation: Survey Off-Grid Generation
While it is clear that a large fraction of the power in Nigeria is currently g enerated
off-grid, little reliable data exists on the quantity, sizes, efficiency, and utilization
rates for captive generators of various types, fueled by petrol, diesel, and natural
gas. A survey could better estimate the contributions by each off-grid category,
including (1) backup for the grid, full-time captive generation with (2) large
generators and (3) small generators, and (4) generation in rural areas with no grid
access. A well-designed survey should examine captive generation by residential,
commercial, industrial, and institutional consumers in urban and rural areas
around the country. The results would provide a solid basis for planning and
evaluating programs to improve design of grid expansion to improve accessibility
of power, and to coordinate planning for off- and on-grid generation, including
future distributed generation as a complement to grid power.
Action Recommendation: Survey Power Consumption
Data are also very limited on the relative power consumption for lighting, appli-
ances, cooling, and other applications. The ECN in partnership with Global
Environment Facility (GEF)–UNDP has recently initiated studies to inventory
the quantity, type, and energy rating of lighting, refrigeration, air conditioning,
and other appliances (UNDP 2011). The survey includes a sample of 300
residential and 50 public buildings. The goal is to determine the market and
energy-saving potential for CFLs and other improvements in EE. These studies
are part of a 4-year project to promote EE in the residential and public sectors.
It would be valuable to combine this survey of on-grid consumption with a sur-
vey of off-grid and rural generation and consumption to understand how usage
patterns vary with source of generation.
Action Recommendation: Measure Wind Resources
Solar potential can be estimated remotely from satellite observations, but ter-
restrial measurements are needed for reliable estimates of wind potential. Data
thus far are limited on the potential for wind power in Nigeria; measurements
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104 The Power Sector
have been made at only 10 sites (FMST 2005) The Africa Wind Atlas (AfDB
2004) estimates for Nigeria are based on simulations rather than direct measure-
ments. Since wind power goes up as the cube of wind speed, economic viability
is highly sensitive to average wind speeds, which can vary substantially from one
site to another within the same region (Vaughan 2011). A high-resolution wind
atlas of Nigeria including offshore areas is urgently needed to obtain an accurate
picture of wind potential and to identify the most suitable sites.
Action Recommendation: Empower Sharing of Energy Data
Finding existing data and projections for energy in Nigeria is often challenging.
Many organizations are involved in collecting data, conducting studies, and
developing plans related to the Nigerian energy sector, including government
ministries, commissions, and other parastatals; companies; consultants; and
NGOs; as well as international organizations, such as the IEA, the UNDP,
and the World Bank. A unified online resource in which these organizations
could find and share data, projections, and reports for the Nigerian energy sector
could greatly facilitate and coordinate this work. The ECN is the natural organi-
zation to perform this task: One of its mandates is to gather, analyze, and
disseminate information on energy, and to develop a national energy databank.
To this end, there is a demonstrated need to achieve a continuing stream of data
for measurement, reporting, and verification (MRV) purposes and to provide an
accurate and up-to-date foundation for policy planning.
Energy Efficiency Recommendations
Improvements in EE are the lowest-cost options for reducing carbon emissions,
since they pay for themselves in reduced energy costs, often in only months.
Improving EE in Nigeria can improve grid reliability and enable limited power to
serve more consumers, while saving funds, especially off-grid. EE programs should
be the first priority for a low-carbon development plan. Key elements follow.
• Promote CFLs and LEDs, and consider banning sales of incandescent lamps.
• Develop efficiency standards for common appliances, including refrigerators
and air conditioners, with phase-out of sales of less efficient appliances. Since
most appliances are imported, a "top runner" program, as in Japan, using the
most efficient model on the market to set future efficiency standards, would
make sense.
• Develop energy literacy and education programs for schools, communities,
and religious organizations on the value of using efficient appliances for the
consumer and the community.
• Create incentives for utility companies and electricity retailers to promote EE
to their customers instead of maximizing power usage.
Grid-Connected Power Recommendations
The immediate focus for grid-connected capacity is to refurbish existing gas
turbines and hydropower generators and to build new ones. Some additional
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lements to be considered in the intermediate term as part of an integrated low-
e
carbon plan are as follows.
Action Recommendation: Barge-Mounted Gas Turbines
Many areas with high population and electricity demand, such as Lagos and parts
of the Niger Delta, are in coastal areas near natural gas pipelines, which may be
supplied by barge-mounted OCGTs. Their immediate advantage over building
land-based generators is that they are relatively inexpensive and can be pur-
chased or leased, shipped and moved into place, and put online much more
rapidly. Their longer-term advantage is that they may be moved or sold when
better options become available, such as CCGTs or renewables. In this way, they
enable energy planners to retain the flexibility to adapt to future opportunities
with low upfront cost.
Action Recommendation: Expand Hydropower
Large-scale hydropower is generally competitive with fossil generation where
rivers and topography offer the potential—and it has near-zero carbon emissions.
Some existing hydropower facilities are not generating at full capacity due to
poor maintenance. Other facilities could be expanded. Generation capacity can
be sized to be greater than that required for average river flow so that power can
be dispatched to meet peaks in demand. Rapid dispatchability may be even more
valuable in the future as a complement to intermittent solar and wind energy.
While hydropower projects promise low-carbon electricity, it is essential to con-
sider the social and environmental impacts of large dams, especially putting in
place appropriate measures to prepare for population displacement and
resettlement.
Action Recommendation: Expand Combined-Cycle Gas Generation
While CCGTs have higher capital costs than SCGTs their greater efficiency
reduces their fuel costs resulting in lower levelized cost as well as lower carbon
emissions. Over time, it may make sense to shift to a higher proportion of
CCGTs when adding new gas capacity. Existing SCGT plants may be retained
to provide peaking power where their lower capital costs reduces their cost at
lower utilization factors. This could be incentivized by adjusting new tariffs
(MYTO) for CCGT, to offset their higher capital costs.
Action Recommendation: Develop Demonstration Projects for
Grid-Connected PV, CSP, and Wind
It is likely that wind, PV, and CSP will reach grid parity in Nigeria during the
next decade in the most suitable regions. To prepare for that time and to provide
a realistic test of the technology and economics, Nigeria should develop large-
scale grid-connected demonstration projects totaling about 100 MW each for PV,
CSP, and wind before 2020. These projects would enable Nigerian planners,
engineers, installers, and operators to develop expertise with these technologies
so that the country is well-positioned to build new capacity as soon as they
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106 The Power Sector
become economical, as well as to obtain greater clarity about when that time
arrives. Financing for these demonstration projects might be obtained from CDM
or other international funding mechanisms. Such an initiative would lay the
foundation for expanding the grid to allow future connection of clean energy
generation around the country.
Action Recommendation: Develop a Smart Grid for Nigeria
In developing countries like Nigeria where power grids have not been fully built,
smart-grid technology presents a unique leapfrog opportunity to grow the
power sector. This strategy entails skipping outdated traditional systems and
starting with smarter, IT-based technology. Smart wireless meters offer more
reliable accounting, can be integrated with efficient mobile-phone–based pay-
ment schemes, and can discourage power theft, which is a problem for Nigeria.
Smart-grid technologies would also be helpful in managing supply intermit-
tency from large amounts of solar and wind energy, and for integrating
distributed and off-grid generation (Tongia 2009). While smart grids need addi-
tional investments, the expected growth in energy needs for Nigeria and the
corresponding growth of power consumers are likely to help with return on
investment.
Off-Grid Power Recommendations
Today less than 50 percent of Nigerians have access to the power grid. An
estimated 50 percent of energy is generated off-grid, mostly by diesel-fueled cap-
tive generators. While expanding grid capacity, reliability, and coverage is a key
priority, off-grid generation will continue to play a large role as an enabler of
economic growth where grid power is insufficient or unavailable. The reference
scenario projects that the fraction of electricity generated off-grid will fall to
about 30 percent by 2035, but this still implies that the absolute amount of off-
grid electricity will grow by a factor of 3.6 by 2025, due to the huge increase in
total generation.
Historically, widespread use of off-grid power has been viewed as a sign of
backwardness. However, in recent years, electricity planners in advanced econ-
omies are increasingly seeing advantages in off-grid and distributed generation
as a valuable complement to the grid. Distributed generation can reduce the
need for expensive and inefficient transmission lines. It can improve reliability
and security of power supply. Microgrids, using distributed PV and hybrid
generation, present a “leapfrog” technology by which emerging economies may
jump directly to a more advanced technology, bypassing historical paths to
industrialization. Nigeria has already done this in telecommunications, where
mobile phones have leapfrogged conventional landlines. Telephone access in
Nigeria increased over 100-fold in 10 years, from 867,000 lines (fixed and
mobile) in 2001 to 94 million in 2011, reaching 58 percent of the population
(NCC 2011).
Power systems are inherently more challenging to install than mobile tele-
phone systems. But, arguably, rapid rollout would be easier for off-grid PV and
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The Power Sector 107
hybrid systems, which can be purchased and installed more easily than grid-
connected systems that depend on a chain of complex national-scale infrastruc-
ture. Furthermore, if enabling factors are carefully designed to draw private-sector
investment to off-grid renewable options, it could potentially free up investment
potential for longer-term options like smart-grid extensions.
PV and hybrid systems are already economically competitive for many off-
grid applications. Gasoline and diesel generators produce power at LCOE
between US$0.23 and $0.42/kWh. The cost of electricity from PV and hybrid
PV-wind-diesel systems are in the range of $0.3/kWh and $0.22/kWh, respec-
tively. As the costs of renewables continue down the learning curve, and fossil-
fuel prices in Nigeria revert to global market prices (“export parity”), the
economic advantages of renewables will become ever greater.
There are several areas in which the FGN could encourage independent
power producers (IPPs) to expand low-carbon off-grid generation and microgrids
as an essential complement to grid power. This can bring the benefits of electric-
ity to rural areas without having to wait until the grid reaches them, which may
be a long time.
Action Recommendation: Use Natural Gas Where Available to Replace Diesel
In areas where natural gas distribution pipelines are available, such as off-grid
generation in urban areas, gas turbines are clearly preferable to diesel generators
for reasons of both cost and carbon emissions. Small gas-powered turbines up to
about 5 MW can generate power at about half the cost of off-grid diesel genera-
tors, with 54 percent of the GHG emissions. Even as natural gas prices increase
toward export parity, overall generation costs will still favor gas over diesel.
Action Recommendation: Use Solar PV for Water Pumping and Irrigation
Initial deployments in Nigeria have confirmed the advantage of PV over diesel
generators for pumping water for domestic use and irrigation (SELF 2008).
Unlike other applications, there is no need for batteries or back-up power for
such applications, since water is easy to store and intermittency is not a problem.
Typically, small PV installations need less care and maintenance than diesel gen-
erators and do not need expensive fuel. These applications are “low-hanging fruit”
for PV, providing substantial economic benefits to agriculture, while reducing
vulnerability to changes in rainfall patterns.
Action Recommendation: Use Solar PV with Batteries and Hybrid
PV-Wind-Diesel
For many other residential and commercial off-grid applications, PV and hybrid
power generation are already competitive with small gasoline and diesel gen-
erators based on levelized cost. The cost advantages of PV with batteries, versus
hybrids with diesel generators, and/or wind, vary by location, depending on
solar and wind resources. However, PV modules and hybrid system costs are
declining rapidly and so their advantages over pure fossil sources will increase
over time.
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108 The Power Sector
Action Recommendation: Develop Small Hydropower
Small hydropower (micro- or pico-hydro) can provide low-cost and low-carbon
power in those places where the resources are available. Dispatchable hydro is a
valuable complement to intermittent solar and wind. A more extensive survey of
resources would assist in identifying the most promising opportunities.
An Integrated Planning Process
As Nigeria expands its power system according to the Roadmap (FRN 2010), it
will become increasingly important to develop a longer-range plan to integrate
low-carbon options as part of a balanced portfolio of energy sources, on-grid and
off-grid. An integrated plan can provide the robustness and flexibility to take
advantage of low-carbon technologies as and when they become economically
practical. Following are actions to be considered in the development of such
a plan.
Action Recommendation: Comprehensive Electricity Systems
Analysis and Planning
A comprehensive, spatially disaggregated engineering systems analysis of genera-
tion plants, load centers, and transmission networks is needed to develop detailed
longer-range plans, both for reference and low-carbon options. It should include
off-grid demand and generation to enable study of trade-offs between expanding
the reach of the grid and expanding off-grid generation. Such an analysis will
require much more comprehensive data than are currently available and was
beyond the scope of this study.
Action Recommendation: Consider Siting of Renewables
When Designing the Grid
Nigeria is planning an ambitious expansion of the capacity and coverage of the
power grid. When selecting sites for generation and corridors for new and
expanded transmission lines, it will be useful to consider not only existing and
near-term additions to gas and hydro capacity, but also the future transmission
needs for potential low-carbon capacity, especially new hydro, solar, and wind.
For example, lines from the South to the North should be able to transmit gas-
generated power from southern areas and hydro from central areas, but also
potential future CSP generation from the North to the South. The comprehen-
sive systems model can assist in evaluating power load and supply balances,
especially with intermittent renewables and geographically distributed supply.
Even if the future rate of adding renewable capacity is uncertain, developing the
grid with those possibilities in mind retains the option for easy integration of
renewables as soon as they become economically viable.
Action Recommendation: Integrate Planning for Gas and CSP
Even if Nigeria opts to build significant capacity of wind, PV, and CSP, gas will
remain a key element of the energy mix. In particular, hybrid CSP and gas
combined cycle provide an attractive combination, with gas using the same
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The Power Sector 109
CCGTs as a back-up when the sun isn’t shining. For example, Turkey has
recently approved the Dervish integrated solar combined cycle (ISCC) plant,
which includes 50 MW CSP with 570 MW gas turbine to come on line in
2016. When gas pipelines reach the northern areas, selection of new sites for
gas generation plants might consider locations with high solar intensity
sufficient land area to enable adding CSP as that technology becomes
and
economical.
Action Recommendation: Encourage Integration of Distributed
Generation into the Grid
As the national grid expands, it can take advantage of existing microgrids and
distributed generation to expand more rapidly at lower cost to the grid. To
accomplish this strategy, the national grid and its IPP suppliers should treat off-
grid and microgrid generation IPPs as partners, not competitors. The FGN can
encourage this with policies such as net-metering, feed-in tariffs (FITs) and
accessible standards for technical system integration.
Recommendations for Policies and Facilitation
Even as low-carbon technologies become economically competitive in Nigeria,
institutional, regulatory, and financial obstacles to reaping their full benefits may
remain. The FGN has an important role to play in creating institutions, policies,
and programs to remove these obstacles. Their design is a central part of develop-
ing a successful low-carbon plan. Key elements of such a plan follow.
Policy Recommendation: Let Domestic Prices of Fossil Fuels Gradually
Revert to Global Market Prices
Regulated and subsidized low prices for natural gas and gasoline are subject to
market distortion. They have unfairly disadvantaged alternative sources of
energy, and, in the case of gas, have led to severe shortages for domestic power.
The FGN has already taken action to reverse these problems by establishing
policies in 2010 to let gas prices increase from a floor of $0.40/million British
thermal units (MMBtu) for power usage, up to $1.00/MMBtu in 2013, although
this is still significantly below export parity, which may be in the region of $3.00/
MMBtu. Gasoline has been subsidized by the FGN, resulting in a drain of 1.2
trillion naira (US$7.4 billion) per year from the national budget, with most
refined petroleum imported due to the poor state of Nigerian refineries. On Jan
1, 2012, the FGN tried to remove the subsidy on gasoline entirely which resulted
in prices more than doubling. After the resulting unrest, they compromised by
reducing subsidies by more than half. In the long run, it appears the FGN is
already committed to allowing fuel prices to reach global prices.
Policy Recommendation: Let Tariffs Fully Reflect Electricity Costs
In 2002, electricity tariffs in Nigeria were among the lowest in the world, at
US$0.043/kWh, a significant cause of the underinvestment in maintenance and
new capacity. In 2009, the Multi-Year Tariff Order (NERC 2011) established
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110 The Power Sector
the principle of cost recovery for each link in the supply chain—fuel, generation,
transmission, distribution, and retail—so that prices should fully reflect costs by
2013. Adequate prices are essential to the successful privatization of each seg-
ment of the industry. Full market prices for grid electricity are also essential to
provide incentives for the adoption of EE, renewable energy, and other low-
carbon technologies. Additionally, full market prices for grid electricity are still
much cheaper than for off-grid generation.
Policy Recommendation: Design Net-Zero, FITs, and Other Policies to
Encourage Low-Carbon Options
Carefully designed policies and incentives could play a key role in encouraging
adoption of cost-effective low-carbon technologies. A recent review of FITs,
renewable portfolio standards (RPS), and Renewable Energy Certificates (RECs)
in developing countries finds that policies have had mixed success (World Bank
2011a). FITs have proved effective in stimulating renewable energy, for example
in India and Turkey, but the results are not always economically efficient. The
study recommends tailoring policies carefully to the local situation, considering
their interactions, adopting policies in sequence, and refining them over time in
the light of experience. In tailoring policies for Nigeria, it will be valuable to
review what has and has not worked elsewhere and why.
Policy Recommendation: Develop Human Resources
Successful development and execution of a low-carbon plan will require a grow-
ing corps of Nigerian scientists, engineers, policy analysts, and technicians with
expertise in key technologies. Steps to build this corps might include establishing
and expanding degree courses and R&D centers at key Nigerian universities,
attracting overseas Nigerians back home with relevant expertise, creating regional
technical training centers, and expanding a curriculum on energy and environ-
ment for secondary schools.
Policy Recommendation: Build Demonstration and Training Projects
The number of small-scale pilot and demonstration projects using PV has been
growing in Nigeria, but PV and hybrid systems are still much less familiar than
gasoline and diesel generators. Further deployments are essential for practical
training of technicians and operators and to develop the markets. As renewables
become more economically competitive, especially for off-grid applications,
there is a growing business opportunity for new or existing firms and coopera-
tives to develop, install, and manage renewable off-grid generation. Programs to
accelerate adoption and demonstrate its associated economic benefits could
include studies to identify the most promising sites and technologies, additional
demonstration projects, promoting training organizations, and developing financ-
ing mechanisms to encourage growth of these businesses. Once the business
opportunities have been convincingly demonstrated and there are enough expe-
rienced people, the FGN should be able to step back from direct support and the
private sector can take over, as has happened with mobile telephones.
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The Power Sector 111
Policy Recommendation: Develop Innovative Financing Schemes
Some off-grid applications of renewables may already be competitive with diesel
generators in terms of LCOE at a 10 percent discount rate, and grid-connected
renewables may become competitive over the next decade in selected applica-
tions. But their initial capital costs are still significantly larger than those of gas-
and diesel-fueled generators. Businesses and residential consumers of electricity
have been unable or unwilling to make such large upfront investments. There is
a commercial opportunity for banks and larger businesses that can borrow at
lower interest rates to provide financing to consumers for off-grid renewable
generation. This strategy also creates a business opportunity to create microgrids
run by small power companies or local cooperatives with the economies of scale
and access to finance not directly available to individual consumers. Financing
mechanisms may include the following:
• Low-interest loans for large and small low-carbon projects. As an example, the
Nigerian Bank of Industry (BoI) has recently partnered with the UNDP to
provide finance to micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) to support
energy projects. According to Evelyn Oputu, Managing Director of BoI,
“Women are the main beneficiaries of the BoI loan on MSMEs because women
constitute more of MSMEs in Nigeria” (Business Day Online 2011).
• CDM offsets and other sources of international financing for low-carbon
projects.
• Leapfrog funds from global mitigation finance channeled through interna-
tional donors are poised to play a catalytic role in helping Nigeria realize its full
low-carbon development potential (Eleri, Ugwu, and Onuvae 2011).
• Emerging mobile phone-based payment systems can support microfinance
and payments for small off-grid systems, such as solar lighting. The Central
Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has started a cashless project that is planned to
reach 20 million Nigerians by the end of 2014. As a related example,
Eight19, a solar light company based in the United Kingdom, is distributing
solar lights in Africa for a modest (about US$10) initial payment, plus
small periodic payments mediated by mobile text messages enabling pur-
chase of systems at a lower periodic cost than kerosene for a lantern
(Eight19.com).
Note
1. This calculation assumes a total land area of 911,521 square kilometers, an average PV
conversion efficiency of 10%, and a 20% capacity factor.
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Cha p t e r 7
The Transport Sector
Vehicle ownership in Nigeria is currently low by international standards,
standing at approximately 29 cars per 1,000 people in 2010. However, aspira-
tion for car ownership is high due to the status it conveys, and increasing
income levels are expected to bring Nigeria into line with other countries
based on expected per capita income levels. The resulting projected growth in
car ownership is considerable, with a four-and-a-half fold increase expected by
2035. The combined impact of population growth and growing car ownership
is expected to increase the private car fleet in Nigeria from 4.65 million to
over 20 million over the forecast period. However, growth in public transport
and commercial vehicle numbers and activity is expected to be even more
pronounced.
Passengers traveling by public transport are typically served by paratransit
minibuses known as danfo. These vehicles are usually privately owned and
operated to serve the interests of the owner/operator, with intense competition
among drivers. Worsening congestion and ever-increasing travel demand in the
large cities means more vehicles on the road. Economic growth, including
expanding manufacturing and service industries, is also increasing demand for
freight transport. As a result, the reference scenario projects passenger and freight
transport amounts to increase nine-fold between 2010 and 2035.
Road Transport in the Base Year
Nigeria’s vehicle fleet is undergoing a slow evolution as vehicle emissions
controls and import regulations come into force. Euro II standards (FGG 2011)
were adopted at the end of 2011 for all new and imported vehicles. The import
of two-stroke motorcycles was banned then, although import of large numbers
of these high-polluting two-wheelers prior to the ban means that they are wide-
spread in many parts of the country.
polluting vehicles, with the
The existing vehicle fleet is made up of aging, high-
majority imported from western countries only when they approach the end of
their economic life. Cars up to 8 years old can be imported, as can trucks younger
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116 The Transport Sector
than 15 years and buses less than 10 years old. Poor routine maintenance and the
harsh environment mean that the condition of these vehicles deteriorates
quickly. However, the high costs of import and weak vehicle testing provide the
incentive to extend the life of the existing fleet beyond the age and the operating
conditions that might be considered desirable. The average age of commercial
vehicles is estimated at over 20 years, and many private vehicles are kept on the
road to ages that would be considered unserviceable elsewhere.
Fuel subsidies until recently kept the price of gasoline well below market
levels (around 65 naira/liter) while diesel is close to international prices (cur-
rently 170 naira/liter). This has had clear effects on fleet composition: the
proportion of private vehicles that run on diesel is negligible; commercial
vehicle owners also have been opting to run petrol (or petroleum gas–
powered) vehicles wherever possible. Hence the majority of small and
medium size danfo minibuses run on petrol; even half of the large buses and
coaches run on petrol. The higher price of diesel has resulted in far fewer
heavy trucks and buses running on the more efficient diesel than would be
expected if both fuels were s imilarly priced.
Information on Nigeria’s vehicle fleet and usage is sparse. Data from official
sources have been complemented by detailed fieldwork conducted by the World
Bank in Lagos in 2006 and a targeted vehicle population survey conducted at
four locations in Nigeria in 2012 specifically for the present study, to better
understand the composition, characteristics, and activity of Nigeria’s vehicle
fleet. These data provided a basis for disaggregating by vehicle type and technol-
ogy within the broad vehicle classifications reflected in the vehicle registration
statistics (see table 7.1).
Private vehicle activity levels in Nigeria are very high; but commercial vehicle
utilization is low compared to other parts of the developing world due to the
combination of poor roads and vehicle condition. The 2012 survey and UITP/
UATP report (UITP/UATP 2010) provide indications on average annual mileages
Table 7.1 Vehicle Fleet Estimates for 2010 Based on Vehicle Population Data
Vehicle type Vehicle class % of total vehicles Vehicle numbers
Motorcycle Two-wheeler 38.32 3,322,888
Saloon (sedan)/station wagon Car 53.63 4,650,509
Van, pick-up and kitcar LCV goods 1.11 96,314
(also known as “component car”)
Lorry/truck HCV truck 1.35 117,424
Minibus LCV goods 5.32 460,987
Omnibus (large bus) HCV coach 0.12 10,687
Tanker HCV truck 0.01 1,055
Highway tractor (tractor trailer, 18-wheeler) HCV truck 0.01 1,121
Trailer HCV truck 0.04 3,232
Tipper HCV truck 0.08 7,257
Sources: Estimate based on State Licensing Authority vehicle registration data (2005) uplifted and disaggregated by vehicle
classification using Lagos State Newly Registered Motor Vehicles by Type of Vehicle and Year of Registration (1990–2005).
Note: LCV = Light commercial vehicle; HCV = Heavy commercial vehicle.
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The Transport Sector 117
(table 7.2). These were reviewed against vehicle population and fuel sales data
and adjusted to ensure that fuel consumption by fuel type broadly reflects the
levels observed in fuel sales.
As indicated in figure 7.1, private car use accounts for by far the greatest share
of vehicle activity, followed by motorcycles—both mainly for commercial
activity—and then light goods vehicles, which includes the minibus (danfo).
Public transport movements typically account for around one-third of vehicle
activity in the large cities such as Lagos, with private cars representing a similar
proportion. Taxis typically account for up to 15 percent of movement, with the
remainder made up of motorcycles and movers of goods. This varies from city to
city, with Kano, for example, having a much higher proportion of motorcycle activity.
Using the COPERT (Computer Program to Calculate Emissions from Road
Traffic) fuel consumption factors included in the World Bank’s EFFECT (Energy
Table 7.2 Base Year Vehicle Average Annual Mileage (2010)
Vehicle type Annual km
Two-wheeler 7,000
Passenger car 17,000
LCV goods 30,000
Heavy duty urban bus 30,000
Heavy duty long-distance coach 45,000
HCV truck 33,500
Source: Estimate based on 2012 vehicle survey and UITP/UATP Report on Statistical Indicators of Public Transport Performance in
Africa, April 2010, balanced against fuel sales data from World Bank Development Indicator Index.
Note: LCV = Light commercial vehicle; HCV = Heavy commercial vehicle.
Figure 7.1 Composition of Vehicle Fleet and Vehicle Uses
a. Vehicle fleet composition (percentage)
Heavy goods
Coach,
vehicle,
<0.5 Light bus,
Light 2
commercial, <0.5
6
Motorcycle,
38
Private car,
54
figure continues next page
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118 The Transport Sector
Figure 7.1 Composition of Vehicle Fleet and Vehicle Uses (continued)
b. Vehicle use (percentage of km traveled)
Heavy goods Coach,
vehicle, <0.5
4 Light bus,
Light <0.5
commercial,
13
Motorcycle,
19
Private car,
64
Source: World Bank commissioned survey, 2012, based on State Licensing Authority vehicle registration data (SLA 2005).
Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool) model for each of the
vehicle subcategories used in the survey, estimates of total fuel consumption
based on the baseline vehicle fleet and activity levels were made as shown in
figure 7.2. This resulted in total emissions for the country of 27.6 million metric
tons carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt CO2e) in 2010.
Reference Scenario for Transport
Over the coming years, a number of cumulative factors can be expected to lead
to increasing levels of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the transport
sector. These factors include population growth, development in manufacturing
and services, increased per capita income, and vehicle fleet evolution.
Population
Nigeria’s growing population of young adults has direct relevance to the poten-
tial pool of future car owners. The increasing driving age population can be
expected to have a direct impact on private vehicle ownership and usage, not
only as a means of transport but for the social status it represents.
Manufacturing and Services
Economic growth drives both personal and commercial travel demand. It is
equally true that the ability to move goods and people is a requisite to achieving
economic growth. Therefore it is recognized that an efficient transport system is
an essential element of a strongly performing economy.
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The Transport Sector 119
Figure 7.2 Base Year Fuel Consumption by Vehicle and Fuel Type
6,000
5,000
Consumption, thousands of tons (kt)/year
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
l
r
cle
us
h
cle
cia
ca
ac
tb
hi
cy
er
e
Co
ve
at
gh
or
m
iv
ot
om
ds
Li
Pr
M
oo
tc
yg
gh
av
Li
He
Diesel Petrol
Source: Calculated using vehicle fleet estimates with EFFECT model fuel consumption factors.
While the historically dominant oil and gas and agriculture sectors are likely
to remain of significant importance to the Nigerian economy, future develop-
ment is projected to shift the balance to manufacturing and services (as shown
in table 7.3). These are more freight-intensive and so can be expected to lead to
faster growth in freight demand.
Typically the elasticity of freight activity in relation to gross domestic product
(GDP) is expected to be greater for developing counties. This is in contrast with
industrialized countries, which have seen a decoupling of freight from economic
growth, with elasticities falling below 1. For the purpose of freight forecasts, a
conservative elasticity value of 1 has been adopted. This has been applied to
commercial public transport vehicle growth and also to light goods vehicles.
However, to account for the increasing share that manufacturing and services
will have in the Nigerian economy, and their greater freight intensity, growth in
heavy goods vehicle numbers has been increased in proportion to the growth in
these industries.
Car Ownership Levels
Cross-country evidence suggests a relationship between car ownership rates
and income approximated by an S-shaped Gompertz curve; this reflects a slow
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120 The Transport Sector
Table 7.3 Projected Macro-Sectoral Shares for Value-Added in Nigeria
percent
Year Agriculture Manufacturing Mining Services
2010 43 1 36 19
2015 32 5 33 29
2020 25 12 25 38
2025 23 17 21 39
2030 21 18 21 39
2035 21 19 21 39
Source: Elaborations on Vision 20: 2020 targets.
Figure 7.3 Car Ownership vs. Income in Various Countries (blue): Nigeria in 2010 (green) and
2035 (orange)
700
600
500
Cars per 1,000
400
300
200
100
0
0
00
00
00
00
00
00
,0
,0
,0
,0
,0
5,
15
25
35
45
55
GDP/capita
Source: World Bank 2010: World Development Indicators (GDP/Capita, Passenger Cars per 1,000 population).
increase in car ownership at lower incomes, after which car ownership
increases rapidly before finally reaching saturation levels at around 450 cars
per 1,000 population, under a “normal” European or Asian pattern of
development.
Over the study period, the increase in GDP in Nigeria from US$1,222 in
2010 to $4,386/capita in 2035 is projected to result in car ownership increasing
from 29 cars per 1,000 population in 2010 to 72 cars per 1,000 in 2035.
Factors other than income are also at play, as evidenced by the range of differ-
ent car ownership levels observed at similar income levels in countries around
the world (figure 7.3). For example, at the US$4,400/capita income projected
for Nigeria in 2035, car ownership varies from 35 to 130 vehicles per 1,000
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The Transport Sector 121
Figure 7.4 Effect of Low and High Car Ownership Trajectories on GHG emissions
300
250
200
Mt CO2e
150
100
50
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
High car ownership trajectory Low car ownership trajectory
Baseline scenario
Source: Modeled emissions based on different car ownership trajectories taken from World Bank 2010: World Development
Indicators.
people. At 72 cars/1,000, Nigeria’s projected car ownership level by 2035 would
lie in the middle of this range. Alternative policy decisions could result in a dif-
ferent path for car ownership, probably in the range of 35 to 130 vehicles per
thousand people. Correspondingly, there would be very different paths of overall
vehicle emissions.
For example, maintaining gasoline subsidies and allowing the import of less-
costly secondhand vehicles, together with a shortage of adequate public trans-
port, would drastically increase car ownership rates. Conversely, high vehicle
tariffs, coupled with good quality urban public transport, as well as adequate
urban land use planning, could result in lower private vehicle ownership and use.
By 2035, the effect on emissions of different car ownership paths might
result in a 75 percent emission increase, from 145 to 255Mt CO2e/year (see
figure 7.4).
Vehicle Fleet Evolution
To tackle pollution levels, the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) recently
introduced regulation related to engine technology, prohibiting the import of
two-stroke motorcycles and adopting Euro 2 standards as a minimum for all
vehicles imported or sold from the end of 2011 (FGG 2011). Future regulatory
tightening has been announced, with a move to Euro 3 in 2015 and then future
emissions regulations forecast to track European standards with the current
15-year lag until the end of the modeled period. Thus, in the reference case, all
new vehicles are expected to conform to Euro 5 as a minimum standard by 2035.
The reference case also assumes a slow removal of the gasoline subsidy,
resulting in the proportion of diesel vehicles changing to a similar fraction as that
of neighboring African countries and then developing along a similar trend to the
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122 The Transport Sector
European Union (EU), but with a lag. By 2035, the reference case makes the
assumption that 40 percent of cars imported to or bought in Nigeria are diesel.
The proportion of diesel fuel used by road vehicles is predicted to reach
percent of sales in 2035.
46
Fuel Consumption
Between 2010 and 2035, fuel consumption is projected to increase by 680 per-
cent, driven by a five-fold increase in total vehicle kilometers driven. The
disproportionate increase in fuel consumption is accounted for by the greater
level of growth observed in the commercial vehicle fleet, which has higher
average fuel consumption levels. This growth in the truck and bus fleet is due to
the increasing importance of non-oil products in Nigeria’s manufacturing indus-
tries, the expansion of the service sector due to rising incomes, and the removal
of the gasoline subsidy that makes the use of heavy diesel-fueled vehicles more
attractive. Diesel consumption accounts for 46 percent of the total fuel c
onsumed
in 2035 compared to 14 percent in 2010.
GHG Emissions
The resulting growth in CO2e emissions levels are presented in figure 7.5. GHG
emissions are forecast to increase significantly over the forecast period, driven by
increasing population, economic activity, and wealth, reaching over 187 Mt by
2035. To put this into context, by 2035, emissions levels in Nigeria are projected
to far exceed the level currently generated by the road transport sector across
Sub-Saharan Africa as a whole (133 Mt in 2008).
Figure 7.5 CO2e Emissions over the Study Period
200
180
160
140
120
Mt CO2e
100
80
60
40
20
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Coach Light commercial
Light bus Private car
Heavy goods vehicle Motorcycle
Source: Modeled emissions based on vehicle fleet estimates and emissions factors from EFFECT model.
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The Transport Sector 123
Low-Carbon Interventions for Transportation
The low-carbon scenario considers the scale of impact of potential mitigation
measures on the growth in emissions. The options explored reflect a focus on the
policy drivers and measures that can be implemented at the national level.
The study team defined the emissions reference case for road transport to
enable estimation of the mitigation potential of several key interventions.
However, due to time and budget limitations it was not possible to directly
evaluate the marginal abatement cost (MAC) of each intervention. Instead,
data and calculations from international experiences, suitably adapted to the
Nigerian context, were used to develop indicative estimates of the MAC of the
measures considered. Due to the importance of the expected future growth in
GHG emissions from this sector, it would be valuable to conduct further work
in this area.
Freight Rail Transport
With a decline in the state and operation of Nigeria’s rail network since the
1980s, all but a very small fraction of freight is transported by road. Reinstatement
of the rail network to its former operating capacity would permit the transfer of
appropriate goods to the rail network, particularly aggregates, cement, and other
heavy freight.
Taking into account historical freight tonnage statistics, the latest plans for the
rail network, and efficiency levels achieved on the rail network in neighboring
African countries, it can be argued that some bulk freight can be more efficiently
transported by rail. Assuming an improved intensity of usage to around the level
of Botswana (currently twice the level observed in Nigeria) would facilitate the
carrying of 2,700 million ton-km, or 5.2 percent. If the rail network expansion
outlined in the Vision 20: 2020 were implemented, the growth in the network
would facilitate freight movement totaling 13 million ton-km (based on equiva-
lent intensity of network use).
The impact of emissions reductions from increasing rail freight intensity
would be relatively small, amounting to around a 0.6 percent reduction in overall
emissions in 2020–30 but then tailing off to just 0.2 percent reduction by 2050.
This is due to the inability of the rail network capacity to keep up with the
growth in freight demand, so despite a significant increase in the physical volume
of freight carried by rail, road-based freight growth is expected to continue to
outstrip rail freight growth.
Under the scenario presented above, the scale of CO2e reduction in the period
2010–35 could be expected to be on the order of 9.9 million tons of CO2.
However, a more detailed study is needed for a better estimate. Of course, trans-
porting goods by rail does not eliminate emissions. The majority of the Nigerian
rail network will remain non-electrified over the medium term, resulting in a
certain level of emissions from the rail freight services. The scale of mitigation
possible is constrained by the coverage of the rail network, which, even with the
proposed expansion, would probably be inadequate to meet a rapidly growing
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124 The Transport Sector
demand for the transportation of goods. While rail might be able to carry
percent of freight by year 2015, the fraction falls as the total annual freight
5
tonnage increases through the end of the study period (2035).
Freight Scheduling
Recognizing the likelihood that the majority of freight will be carried by
road in the medium term, measures to increase the efficiency of freight
movements through better logistical planning and fleet management are
expected to prove most effective. Reducing empty running and rationalizing
freight movements, with a move toward using larger freight vehicles, has
been demonstrated to achieve significant savings in operating mileage and
hence emissions levels. Efficiency savings of 20 percent in small and medium
freight activity with 10 percent reduction in heavy freight kilometers has
been assumed.
Cumulative emissions savings over the forecast period of this study at these
assumed efficiency levels amount to 73.3 Mt CO2 by 2035, demonstrating the
sizeable abatement that can be achieved through measures aimed at improving
the efficiency of the rapidly growing freight sector and the value of studying
freight handling and transport in greater detail.
Driver Training
Training programs that teach drivers about the impact their driving has on
vehicle wear and tear and operating costs has been shown to reap rewards during
many pilot studies undertaken in the African region. Through less intensive
acceleration and braking and maintaining a constant efficient speed, the training
programs typically report reductions in fuel consumption of 20 percent or more.
With this scale of potential improvement, enhanced driver training for even a
small proportion of the goods vehicle drivers can reap strong rewards in terms of
CO2 reduction, lower costs, and also safety. A scenario has been developed for
this study based on the following assumptions:
• Start of a training program covering 20 percent of heavy goods drivers in 2012
(representing 30,000 drivers);
• Achievement of a 20 percent improvement in fuel consumption levels for
those drivers/vehicles following training; and
• Requirement of repeat training every 5 years for a similar proportion of
drivers.
The overall impact over the projected period of such a scheme could allow
9.9 million tons of CO2 to be saved.
More Efficient Private Vehicles
The average private vehicle on Nigeria’s roads is 14 years old, does not comply
with any Euro emissions standards, and as a result is outdated in terms of fuel
efficiency and carbon emissions levels. Unlike Europe, Nigeria has no stated
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The Transport Sector 125
CO2 emissions standards for cars. The current average emissions level across
the Nigerian private car fleet is estimated to be 214g CO2/km. This is clearly
far behind the standards being adopted in Europe, which are as follows:
• By 2015, an average 130g CO2/km across fleet of new vehicle sales by manu-
facturer and
• By 2020, a target of 95g CO2/km average across all vehicles sold.
Applying regulations in line with European emissions target levels with a lag
of 15 years would mean that new and imported vehicles should on average emit
only 130g CO2/km by 2030. This could reduce average emissions levels for pri-
vate cars to approximately 137g CO2/km by 2035. The savings grow to 36 met-
ric tons annually by 2035, with a total reduction in carbon emissions over the
forecast period of 269 Mt CO2. Not only does this represent one of the most
effective policy levers to reduce local pollution and GHG emissions in a relatively
short term, but it is also one of the few activities mainly controlled by the Federal
Government of Nigeria and thus easier to implement than those under the con-
ultiple local stakeholders.
trol of m
Public Transport
Public transport is currently the only form of available motorized transport for
over three-quarters of travelers in the urban environment. While public transport
typically alleviates urban congestion, the present public transport system consist-
ing of small privately-owned minibuses, taxis, and motorcycle taxis is actually the
source of much disruption, with undisciplined and erratic driving behavior (danfos
regularly block two lanes of traffic while trying to board and alight passengers).
Nigeria has at least 10 cities with over 1 million population. Lagos estimates
vary from 9 million to over 17 million. Until just a few years ago, it was the only
megacity without any form of organized public transport. The sheer scale of
people movement cannot adequately be served by an unplanned and unstruc-
tured public transport system.
A move to organized mass transit, whether rail, bus rapid transit (BRT),
or conventional large bus operations, can significantly enhance the efficiency
of transport operations, not only for public transport travelers but all highway
users.
An organized mass transit scenario focuses initially on the migration to orga-
nized large bus operations because of its replicability in all major cities across
Nigeria. Based on conservative assumptions, just under one-third of existing
paratransit operations could be replaced by one-fifth of the number of large
buses. The additional benefits and traffic reductions resulting from BRT along
selected high-demand corridors are applicable on other routes and cities.
The introduction of large bus operations in the larger cities of Nigeria could
reduce emissions levels by 0.4–0.5 percent per year. Over the projected period,
these savings amount conservatively to 10.6 million tons of CO2. Detailed
studies on a city-by-city basis would be needed to better evaluate this change.
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126 The Transport Sector
BRT is typically successfully implemented on corridors with passenger move-
ments of over 3,000 per hour per direction. BRT enhances efficiency due to
priority infrastructure, allowing more round trips by each larger-capacity vehicle,
resulting in lower per-passenger CO2 emissions.
Lagos has successfully implemented a BRT route on a key corridor from the
mainland onto the island. The 22-kilometer route currently carries almost
200,000 passengers a day. Two additional routes are planned within the city.
Based on a target assumption of 30 percent of public transport trips by mass
transit and a reduction of 75 percent of danfo trips, a reduction of 10.3 percent
of light goods vehicle activity is forecast with an associated increase in large bus
vehicle activity of 1.3 percent. This impact on emissions levels is conservatively
estimated at 14.1 Mt CO2 over the forecast period.
Extending the Use of CNG as a Transport Fuel
Although Nigeria is rich in natural gas, its use to fuel transportation in the
form of compressed natural gas (CNG) is in its infancy, although widespread
in many other countries. A trial commenced in 2010 in Edo State promoted
by the Nigerian Independent Petroleum Company (NIPCO) in partnership
with the Nigeria Gas Company (NGC). As a result of the program, as of 2012
there were six fueling stations, and another two under construction, to serve
the state’s large buses converted to CNG, and a fleet of 250 CNG taxis.
NIPCO aims to roll out the concept and ultimately make CNG available at
5,000 stations across the country. Countries leading the way in the use of
CNG include Pakistan, which currently has around 3,300 CNG fuelling sta-
tions countrywide and over 2.8 million CNG vehicles. As well as lowering fuel
costs by up to 50 percent—particularly important in light of the gasoline
subsidy reduction—the levels of GHG pollution can be significantly lower
than with gasoline.
The low-carbon scenario of the current study considers the successful rollout
of CNG to all of the new large bus vehicles introduced in the mass transit
scenario set out above (existing bus vehicles are assumed to remain on standard
technology), as well as adoption by 50 percent of the national taxi fleet and
15 percent of other private and commercial vehicles. The abatement of total
emissions from road transport increases from 0.2 to 3 percent by 2035, resulting
in total emission reduction over the forecast period of 53 Mt CO2. Of course, to
achieve these gains, good operational control and technology is essential, since
the leakage of natural gas into the atmosphere can more than offset the GHG
emissions advantage of consuming this fuel.
Impact of the Promotion of Low-Carbon Policies
As shown in figure 7.6, applying this combination of measures can achieve a
reduction in emissions increasing from 0.88 Mt CO2e in 2012 to over 50 Mt
CO2e in 2035. In total, this amounts to a reduction conservatively on the order
of 452 Mt CO2e over the 25-year study period.
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The Transport Sector 127
Figure 7.6 Impact of Transport Sector Mitigation Measures on CO2 Emissions Levels
200
180
160
140
120
Mt CO2e
100
80
60
40
20
0
10
15
20
25
30
35
20
20
20
20
20
20
Baseline Freight training CNG adoption
Rail freight Large bus Fuel e ciency
Freight e ciency BRT
Source: Modeled emissions based on vehicle fleet estimates and emissions factors from EFFECT model.
The major emissions savings are achieved through vehicular emissions regula-
tions, followed by freight efficiency improvements and CNG adoption.
While these savings represent a significant reduction in absolute terms, they
are not as sizeable in relative terms, which points to the need for further work
on opportunities for a lower carbon development of Nigeria’s road transport
sector.
Recommendations for the Transport Sector
The sheer scale of demand for transport in Nigeria’s major urban areas cannot
adequately be served by an unplanned and unstructured public transport system.
For freight, Vision 20: 2020 goals imply a growing importance for the manufac-
turing sector and service industries, which will drive an increasing demand for
the movement of freight and goods. Evidently structural changes in land trans-
port are needed to allow the country’s development goals to be achieved.
The present study analysis is intended to frame the growing importance of the
transport sector in terms of GHG emissions and initiate debate and discussion on
the measures that need to be implemented to mitigate the impacts of the sector’s
growth. The limited scope of the transport study did not allow each of the
involved factors to be evaluated in depth, and additional work will be needed to
frame future policy decisions.
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128 The Transport Sector
Recommendation: Strengthen and Coordinate Institutional Mandates at All
Levels of Government
Actions other than adding more roads need to be taken to focus transport devel-
opment along a more sustainable pathway. However, particularly in transport,
these long-term planning processes need to recognize and integrate a wide
spectrum of constituencies, including all levels of government, with careful atten-
tion to building ownership and consensus among key sectors, such as services and
manufacturing, transport, and agriculture; civil society; and private-sector groups.
The explosive growth in the demand for passenger mobility is centered in cities
and requires a coordinated long-term consensus among local stakeholders, while
technology choices and long-distance travel is mainly within the domain of the
FGN and state governments.
Recommendation: Improve Transport Data
Policy Recommendation: Strengthen Nigeria-Specific Transport Data
To develop a low-carbon plan to reflect actual conditions in Nigeria, rather than
using estimates adapted from other countries, it will be important to collect
additional data to fill in critical gaps both at the national and local-area level.
Detailed data on the vehicle fleet, vehicle activity, and the movement of goods
and people need to be maintained and periodically updated to enable judicious
policy decisions in a changing environment. It is virtually impossible to improve
something that is not being measured, and the data currently available in this
sector are particularly sparse.
Policy Recommendation: Give Priority to Infrastructure Development that
Avoids Lock-In
As Nigeria’s urban population increases, the infrastructure design and develop-
ment decisions that will be taken over the coming years will directly affect the
long-term sustainability of its cities. Infrastructure investments have a long life;
design decisions made centuries ago are still evident in many European towns
and cities. If cities develop around the needs of private motorization they will be
“locked-in” to a high energy-consuming development trajectory that will be
difficult to change at a later date.
Policy Recommendation: Evaluate the Costs of all Externalities of the Fuel
Subsidy
Gasoline subsidies until recently have kept the price of gasoline well below
market levels (around 65 naira/liter), in contrast to diesel, which is sold at close
to market levels (currently 170 naira/liter). This has skewed the vehicle fleet
toward small, inefficient vehicles, by making it more difficult for large diesel-
fueled buses and trucks to compete. The anticipated eventual removal of the
gasoline subsidy will narrow the cost differential with the cost of diesel and allow
the Nigerian fleet to come into line with neighboring countries in terms of the
mix between petrol and diesel vehicles. If the variable cost of private transport
operation remains low due to subsidies, it will be difficult to promote the
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The Transport Sector 129
mass-transit and freight solutions needed to enable the country’s development
trajectory—including quality of life improvements.
Policy Recommendation: Actively Promote Formal Public
Transport in All Cities
Maintaining present public transport shares in the face of exploding private
vehicle ownership will be an impossible task unless a paradigm shift occurs in
urban design and development. As more families become private transport
owners (cars and two-wheelers), the challenge becomes one of providing them
with alternatives to use for their routine daily travel.
Policy Recommendation: Give Priority to Efficient Freight Handling and
Transport as Essential to Growth
Efficient freight movement is essential for the country to achieve its growth
goals. This should include expansion of rail services, road infrastructure, vehicle
technology, logistical planning, and fleet management. Significant savings (and a
reduction in GHG emissions) can be achieved by leapfrogging to solutions with
advantages demonstrated in more advanced countries. Making this happen needs
direct investment from the FGN and creating the enabling environment that
permits the private sector to adopt modern solutions.
Recommendation: Vehicle Technology
The combined impact of population growth and car ownership increases is
expected to escalate the private car population from 4.7 million to over
20 million over the forecast period of the study. Evidently this would be
catastrophic if all these were aging and high polluting vehicles near the end of
their useful lives.
Therefore the recommendation is to track European standards with a 15-year
lag. Over time, this lag should be reduced, and eventually eliminated, as Nigeria
achieves its goal of becoming the world’s 20th largest economy. The application
of an effective vehicle inspection and maintenance system in major cities could
have a major impact on lowering tailpipe and GHG emissions.
Alternative Fuels
Many countries, notably Pakistan and India, have successfully promoted the use
of CNG as a transport fuel to combat air quality problems and reduce GHG
emissions from this sector, while lowering operating costs. It is recommended
that a detailed study be undertaken to identify urban areas suited to develop an
infrastructure for deployment of a network of CNG filling stations.
References
FGG (Federal Government Gazette). 2011. “National Environmental (Control of
Vehicular Emissions Petrol and Diesel Engines) Regulations.” Federal Government
Gazette 47 (May 17).
Low-Carbon Development • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-9925-5
130 The Transport Sector
SLA (State Licensing Authority). 2005. Lagos State Licensing Office and Lagos State
Central Statistics Office (MEPRB), Internal Statistic Book on Newly Registered
Motor Vehicles by Type of Vehicle and by Year of Registration: 1990–2005.
UITP/UATP (Union Internationale des Transports Publics/Union Africaine des Transports
Publics). 2010. Report on Statistical Indicators of Public Transport Performance in Africa,
http://www.uitp.org/knowledge/pdf/Report_on_statistical_indicators_of_
publictransportperformanceinS-SA.pdf.
World Bank. 2010. World Development Indicators. Washington, DC: World Bank. http://
data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/world-development-indicators.
Low-Carbon Development • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-9925-5
Cha p t e r 8
Summary of Findings and
Recommendations across Sectors
This chapter summarizes the key findings on emissions for the reference and
low-carbon scenarios; and on benefits and costs of the mitigation options
included in the latter. It provides general recommendations that cut across sec-
overcoming organizational and institutional barriers to reconcile growth
tors for
with low-carbon development. (Chapters 4–7 contain more specific recommen-
dations for each sector.)
Emissions across Sectors for the Reference Scenario
The reference scenario projects a doubling of emissions from the four sectors
from 2010 to 2035 (figure 8.1). Over the same period, the population is
projected to grow by 82 percent and the real gross domestic product (GDP) is
projected to increase 6.5 times.
This doubling of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions results from an important
structural change: In 2010, over half of the nation’s emissions originated from
agriculture and land use change (53 percent), with oil and gas contributing
30 percent of the total. The power and road transport sectors contributed
8 percent and 9 percent, respectively.
By 2035, in the reference scenario, the mix is projected to be radically differ-
ent: Agriculture, forestry, and land use change constitute only 4 percent of the
total. Oil and gas drop from 30 to 12 percent. The power sector becomes the
largest contributor at 56 percent, followed by road transport at 28 percent
(figure 8.2).
The principal causes of these structural changes are as follows:
• For the agriculture sector, a dramatic reduction in net emissions is due to a
slow-down in land use changes and to negative emissions from changes in
annual, perennial, and wet rice crops (see figure 4.4).
• For the oil and gas sector, increased emissions from on-site gas combustion are
counterbalanced by a reduction in emissions from flaring (figure 5.3).
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132 Summary of Findings and Recommendations across Sectors
Figure 8.1 Annual CO2e Emissions in the Reference Scenario
700
600
500
400
Mt CO2e
300
200
100
0
10
20
30
15
25
35
20
20
20
20
20
20
Power sector Transport Oil and gas Agriculture and land use change
Source: Calculations based on data sources listed in the chapter 3 references.
Figure 8.2 Reference Scenario: Sector Composition of GHG Emissions in 2010 and 2035
percent
a. 2010
Power sector,
8
Agriculture and land
use change,
53
Oil and gas,
30
Transport,
9
figure continues next page
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Summary of Findings and Recommendations across Sectors 133
Figure 8.2 Reference Scenario: Sector Composition of GHG Emissions in 2010 and 2035 (continued)
percent
b. 2035
Power sector,
56
Agriculture and land
use change,
4 Oil and gas,
12
Transport,
28
Source: Calculations based on data sources listed in the chapter 3 references.
• For the electricity and transport sectors, dramatic growth in emissions reflects
growing electricity generation (figure 6.7) and volume of road transport
figure 7.5) as a result of increases in population and income per capita.
(
Emissions and Mitigation Potential for the Low-Carbon Scenario
For each sector, the study team identified a set of low-carbon interventions (miti-
gation options.) As described chapter 3, interventions were evaluated according
to a series of criteria, including the magnitude of potential emission reductions,
as well as technical, economic, and institutional feasibility. The goal was to assess
whether the different options can help reduce carbon emissions while meeting
Nigeria’s ambitious goals for economic development.
As result of this process, the teams selected some 30 options for inclusion
in the low-carbon scenario. These measures would allow the Vision 20: 2020
development goals to be reached with minimal change in annual GHG
emissions, increasing from 303 million metric tons carbon dioxide equivalent
(Mt CO2e/year) in 2010 to 320 Mt CO2e in 2035 (figure 8.3).
The low-carbon scenario would result in a 50 percent reduction of emissions
in the terminal year relative to the reference scenario. The reduction in cumula-
tive emissions over the whole simulation period would be some 3.7 billion tons
of CO2e (table 8.1).
The largest contribution to the total mitigation potential comes from the
power sector (some 1.9 billion tons), with smaller but significant contributions
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134 Summary of Findings and Recommendations across Sectors
Figure 8.3 Annual CO2e Emissions in the Low-Carbon Scenario
350
300
250
Mt CO2e
200
150
100
50
0
10
15
20
25
30
35
20
20
20
20
20
20
Transport Oil and gas Agriculture and land use change Power sector
Source: Calculations based on data sources listed in the chapter 3 references.
Table 8.1 Low-Carbon Scenario: End-Year Emissions and Cumulative Emissions Abatement
by Sector
GHG emissions, billion tons CO2e/year in 2035 Emissions reduction
Sector Reference Low-carbon 2010–35 billion tons CO2e
Power sector 0.37 0.16 1.92
Oil and gas sector 0.08 0.04 0.75
Road transport 0.19 0.13 0.45
Agriculture and LUC 0.03 −0.02 0.65
Total 0.67 0.31 3.77
Source: Calculations based on data sources listed in the chapter 3 references.
Note: LUC = land use change.
from oil and gas (0.7 billion tons), agriculture (0.6 billion), and transport
billion tons). The differences over time between the emissions in the refer-
(0.5
ence scenario and in the low-carbon scenario are shown in figure 8.4 as the “miti-
gation wedges,” reducing emissions from the reference case (top blue line) to
low-carbon case (dotted area at the bottom).
Sectors differ significantly in time distribution of their abatement potential
(figure 8.5): Agriculture and land use account for the largest share of emissions
abatement in the earlier years, when most of the land use changes might take
place. In the middle of the period, the oil and gas sector provides considerable
abatement opportunities. In the second part of the simulation period, land use
changes slow down, and opportunities for expanding renewable energy (RE)
generation increase. This reflects, in part, projections that costs of renewable
technologies will become economically competitive with fossil fuel in terms of
percent of the
levelized cost. By the end of the period, the power sector offers 60
total abatement potential.
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Summary of Findings and Recommendations across Sectors 135
Figure 8.4 Mitigation Wedges for the Four Sectors
700
600
500
400
Mt CO2e
300
200
100
0
10
15
20
25
30
35
20
20
20
20
20
20
Reference case Oil and gas Agriculture and land use change
Transport Power sector Low-carbon scenario
Source: Calculations based on data sources listed in the chapter 3 references.
Figure 8.5 Percent Shares by Sector of Mitigation Potential over Time
100
90
Percentage of share in carbon abatement
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
20 1
20 9
20 1
20 3
20 8
20 9
20 4
30
20 8
12
20 3
20 4
20 6
32
34
20 3
20
22
20 6
35
25
15
27
17
2
2
3
3
1
1
2
2
1
1
1
2
2
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Agriculture and land use change Transport
Oil and gas Power sector
Source: Calculations based on data sources listed in the chapter 3 references.
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136 Summary of Findings and Recommendations across Sectors
Costs and Benefits of the Low-Carbon Scenario
Much of the low-carbon scenario appears economically attractive from Nigeria’s
point of view, even ignoring GHG abatement. Figure 8.6 shows the marginal
abatement cost (MAC) of each intervention (in U.S. dollars per ton of carbon
dioxide equivalent, $/t CO2e), plotted against the cumulated potential mitiga-
tion in Mt CO2e from 2010 to 2035. The main interventions are ordered from
lowest to highest MAC. Some 62 percent of the total mitigation potential
Figure 8.6 MAC for Nigeria (Selected Low-Carbon Interventions)
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000
100 100
31
50 30 50
29
16 19 22 23 25 2728
0 0
14 15 17 18 20 21 24 26
12 13
10 11
–50 9 –50
5 6 7 8
4
–100 –100
3
$/ t CO2e
–150 –150
2
–200 –200
–250 –250
–300 –300
–350 –350
Cumulative mitigation potential, Mt CO2e
1
–400 Power Transport Oil/gas Agriculture –400
Average Average
Mitigation cost of Mitigation
cost of
Code Sector Intervention potential mitigation Code Sector Intervention potential
mitigation
(Mt CO2e) ($/t CO e) (Mt CO2e)
2 ($/t CO2e)
1 P
EE lighting off-grid 233 –356 16 P Transmission 65 0
2 EE lighting on-grid
P 279 –152 17 T Rail freight 10 0
3 Large bus
T 11 –93 18 O Crude storage 131 0
4 Flaring
O 120 –61 19 T Freight training 22 0
5 Perennials
A 38 –50 20 A Agroforestry 145 1
6 Annuals
A 192 –49 21 P Concentrated solar power 92 1
7 Off-grid photovoltaics
P 158 –46 22 A SRI 3 1
Freight efficiency Gas used for on-site
8 T 73 –46 23 O 388 2
improvements powergen
9 T BRT 14 –41 24 O Fugitives 88 2
10 P Small hydro power 44 –32 25 T CNG adoption 53 4
Off-grid PV/diesel Livestock and pasturelands
11 P 124 –31 26 A improvements 61 5
hybrid
12 P Gas combined cycle 300 –15 27 P Solar PV (grid) 61 7
13 T Fuel efficiency 269 –12 28 P Biomass 64 15
14 P Expanded hydropower 382 –5 29 A Avoided deforestation 207 20
15 O Glycol dehydration 19 –1 30 P Wind turbines 104 41
P = power; T = transport; A = agriculture; O = oil/gas 31 P Supercritical coal with CCS 17 70
Source: Calculations based on data sources listed in the chapter 3 references.
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Summary of Findings and Recommendations across Sectors 137
(2.3 gigatons [Gt] CO2e) can be achieved at negative cost—that is, at a net social
benefit. An additional 25 percent or 0.9 Gt CO2e has a MAC of $5/t CO2e or
less. The remaining 14 percent (0.5 Gt CO2e) has MAC values in excess of
$5/ton. The average MAC of all 31 interventions (weighted by abatement poten-
tial) is a net social benefit of $42/t CO2e.
Reviewing interventions using MAC shows that the benefits of the low-
carbon scenario vary by sector: in power and transport, interventions with more
than 80 percent of the abatement potential have net social benefits (Table 8.2).
In agriculture, the corresponding share is over 35 percent; however in agriculture,
and oil/gas, a significant share of total mitigation potential can be attractive for a
relatively modest carbon price of US$5/t CO2e or less; this is about 80% of the
total the case of oil and gas.
Emissions abatement often requires higher capital expenditures, with lower
fuel and operating costs over time, resulting in substantial long-run national
benefits. In the agriculture sector, an additional public investment over the study
period of $7 billion (0.04 percent of GDP) would result in additional cash flow
to farmers and landowners of $37.3 billion (0.23 percent of GDP) while reduc-
ing GHG emissions by 646 Mt CO2e.
For the oil and gas sector, a capital expenditure over the study period of
$17 billion (0.11 percent of GDP) would generate net revenue (gross revenues
minus gross expenditures) of $42 billion (0.26 percent of GDP). In the power
sector, the capital expenditure of $118 billion (0.7 percent of GDP) is projected
to reduce net expenditures (capital, fuel, and operating) by $225 billion
(1.4 percent of GDP) (table 8.3).
In the transport sector, further work is required to quantify the public and
private expenditures and savings. They will include important health benefits
from reduced pollution (particularly in urban areas), reduced traffic congestion
leading to time savings in travel and improved quality of life, and increased pro-
ductivity and competitiveness in the manufacturing and service sectors.
In summary, there is the potential of abating some 3.7 billion tons of GHG
emissions (CO2e) with a net financial benefit close to 1.9 percent of GDP, over
the study period—provided that Nigeria can find ways to overcome the signifi-
cant institutional and financial barriers to adopting a low-carbon development
pathway.
Table 8.2 Shares of Sector Mitigation Potential by Class of Marginal Abatement Cost
Marginal abatement cost
Sector Negative (%) < $5/t CO2e > $5/t CO2e Total (%)
Agriculture 36 23 41 100
Oil and gas 19 81 0 100
Power 82 5 13 100
Transport 81 19 0 100
Total 62 25 14 100
Source: Calculations based on data sources listed in the chapter 3 references.
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138 Summary of Findings and Recommendations across Sectors
Table 8.3 National Costs and Benefits of the Low-Carbon Scenario
Cumulative
National costs National benefits GHG abatement
US$Billion % of US$Billion % of 2010–35,
Sector Indicator 2010–35 GDP Indicator 2010–35 GDP Billion tons CO2e
Agriculture Cumulative public 7 0.04 Net social additional 37 0.23 0.65
additional capital cash flow
expenditure
Oil and gas Cumulative additional 17 0.10 Net additional cash 42 0.26 0.75
capital expenditure flow
Power Cumulative capital 118 0.72 Savings on 225 1.41 1.92
additional cumulative capital,
expenditure operating and fuel
expenditure
Transport Additional public (a) (a) Reduced congestion, (a) (a) 0.45
capital expenditure improved air
quality, etc.
Total 142 0.85 304 1.90 3.77
Source: Calculations based on data sources listed in the chapter 3 references.
Note: (a) = Values not quantified.
Uncertainties and Sensitivity Analysis
A long-term analysis of this type, with a horizon of almost 25 years, inevitably
faces large uncertainties. The study conducted a number of sensitivity analyses to
evaluate whether findings are robust to key assumptions. For example, in the
power sector, cost projections for renewable energy technologies—such as
photovoltaics (PVs), concentrating solar power, and wind—suggest that some
already are (or will soon be) competitive with fossil fuel technologies for off-grid
generation compared to diesel generators, and most will reach grid-parity by the
last decade of analysis. What if these projections are too optimistic?
Chapter 6 summarizes the result1 of comparing the low-carbon scenario
with a “delayed low-carbon scenario” that delays adoption of renewables by
5–10 years in case of slower learning curves and/or lower prices for fossil fuel.
This scenario ends up with almost the same technology mix by 2035 with a
56 percent reduction in emissions from power relative to the reference sce-
nario, although the cumulative emissions savings over the study period are
reduced from 40 percent to 23 percent. The cost of the delayed low-carbon
scenario is similar. This implies that the main conclusions for the low-carbon
scenario for power are relatively robust to these changes, although the adoption
of some options would be delayed.
A key assumption is relevant to all sectors is the future economic growth
rates in Nigeria: Changing GDP growth from the “high growth” scenario down
to the “medium growth” scenario, or up to the Vision 20: 2020 scenario, results
in major changes to GDP by 2035. Under these scenarios, GDP increases by a
factor of 2, moving from the medium growth scenario to the Vision 20: 2020
scenario (see chapter 3 for details). For the power sector, such changes to
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Summary of Findings and Recommendations across Sectors 139
GDP, and hence income per capita, would have correspondingly large effects
on the demand for electricity and hence on emissions from electricity genera-
tion. In each case, however, the same types of low-carbon technologies and
mitigation options would make sense for the same reasons. Their unit costs
and benefits per megawatt (MW) or megawatt-hour (MWh) are not much
affected by the speed of GDP growth. Hence, the same findings apply in terms
of which options to select, when they become cost effective, what percentage
mix of generation technologies to choose, and what institutional changes
would be necessary to overcome barriers to adoption. The only thing that
would change depending on the GDP growth scenario considered would be
absolute quantities of new capacity to install and emissions produced. The
percentage reduction in emission from the r eference scenario to low-carbon
scenario would be the same, at 56 percent. (For details see chapter 6 for a
sensitivity analysis of the effects of GDP growth on emissions.)
Similarly, for the agriculture sector, most options are attractive for economic
as well as environmental reasons, and recommendations should be robust to
changes in GDP growth rates. The evolution of Nigeria’s oil and gas sector is
perhaps more dependent on the actual size of reserves and the global prices of
oil and gas than on Nigeria’s GDP growth. However, conversely, the size and
revenues of the oil and gas sector (which is a major source of national revenues),
will have a major influence on Nigeria’s GDP growth. It might also affect the
feasibility of Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN)-financed expenditures on
capital-intensive low-carbon options.
Recommendations: Reconciling Growth with Low-Carbon Development
This final section summarizes general barriers to reconciling growth with low-
carbon development and makes recommendations on how to overcome those
barriers. These recommendations apply to all four sectors. They complement and
extend the sector-specific recommendations presented at the end of each
chapters 4–7.
While possible and often economically attractive, low-carbon development is
by no means easy, in Nigeria or elsewhere. Barriers, including information needs,
technologies, institutions, regulations, and financing, stand in the way of making
low-carbon development a reality. But in many cases, barriers to low-carbon
options are similar to barriers to conventional development. For example, prob-
lems of inadequate information also plague the monitoring of many “core
business” indicators; in the power sector, data on off-grid generation is very scant;
in transport, information on the volume, composition, age, and technology mix
of the vehicular fleet is largely inadequate. These factors make it difficult to
evaluate complementarities or trade-offs between mitigation and development
objectives.
Barriers to financing are of particular significance for low-carbon develop-
ment. Many low-carbon technologies feature higher upfront costs and delayed
benefits, compared to the higher carbon technology they displace. This
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140 Summary of Findings and Recommendations across Sectors
applies to most RE and to several conservation agriculture practices. Although
their net benefits are often larger in the longer term than the reference tech-
nology, they are penalized by financial markets biased in favor of short-term
returns.
Even for measures that do not require significant upfront funding, such as
energy efficiency (EE) and load management, a mechanism is needed to promote
adoption by the private and public sectors. This mechanism could acquire
demand-side resources (EE and load management) and allow a utility or a gov-
ernment agency to purchase energy savings and/or demand reductions at an
agreed rate in cents per kilowatt-hour (kWh) based on verified savings.
Recommendation: Strengthen the Overall Governance Framework
Nigeria is a party to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC), has ratified the Kyoto Protocol, and adheres to the Copenhagen and
Cancun Accords, and to the Durban Platform. Nigeria in 2003 submitted its first
national communication to the UNFCCC, but has not yet finalized the second
one (FGN 2003). On the domestic front, the Federal Ministry of the Environment
(FME) has taken a number of steps to move f orward the climate agenda, includ-
ing establishing an inter-ministerial committee for climate change as well as a
special climate change unit inside the ministry, recently upgraded to a regular
department of the ministry.
To consolidate these reforms, the Nigerian National Assembly passed a bill to
establish a National Climate Change Commission to coordinate national policies
on climate change, which is awaiting the president’s approval (National Assembly
of the Federal Republic of Nigeria 2010). However, the legislature’s initiative can
be interpreted as recognition of the fact that low-carbon, climate-resilient devel-
opment requires institutions with the ability to make and implement decisions
across multiple sectors.
The technical leadership exerted so far by the FME could be made more
effective by charging a body that has a cross-sector policy mandate with the task
to define policies for low-carbon, climate-resilient development, which require
the concurrence of several line agencies. Such a role could be played by the exist-
ing Economic Management Team (EMT) of the FGN; or by the proposed
National Climate Change Commission if it comes into being.
Recommendation: Improve Data Collection and Analysis
Relevant ministries, departments, and agencies (MDAs) in collaboration with the
National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) should define action plans (with specific
targets and milestones) to improve the quantity and quality of data required to
design, monitor, and evaluate sector development policies. In many cases, data
required for the ordinary development of the power, agriculture, transport, and
oil and gas sectors will also be useful to evaluate synergies or trade-offs with low-
carbon development. In addition, the action plans should also contain provisions
for measuring and monitoring emissions of GHG, as such data will most likely
be instrumental for accessing international climate finance.
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Summary of Findings and Recommendations across Sectors 141
Recommendation: Integrate Low-Carbon Objectives into Regular Sector
Development Plans and Processes
Recent experiences in developing countries such as China (box 8.1) point to the
key role of integrating low-carbon objectives and activities into regular sector
strategies and planning processes, including the identification of targets and the
definition of an array of policies to achieve them.
Box 8.1 The Experience of China with Scaling Up Renewable Energy
In China, coal is the dominant contributor—about 70 percent—to the country’s energy supply.
But with steadily rising prices and the impacts of coal on the environment and health and
climate change, the Chinese government is pursuing renewable energy (RE) sources. In 2009,
installed RE capacity reached 55 GW of small hydropower (the largest in the world), 22.68 GW
of wind power (and rising), 4 GW for biomass, and 300 megawatts-peak (MWp) of solar
photovoltaic (PV).
It was mainly the Renewable Energy Law, enacted in February 2005, and effective in
January 2006, that set the stage for RE scale-up to meet China’s surging electricity demand.
The 2007 Renewable Energy Medium- and Long-Term Development Plan (Renewable Energy
Plan), specified the country’s commitment to increasing the share of RE to 15 percent of the
2020 primary energy supply. The government is increasing the targets of renewable electricity
from 360 GW generating 1,490 terawatt-hours (TWh) to 500 GW generating 1,820 TWh
(including large hydropower).
Established at the national level, the RE target eventually worked its way down to the
provinces, through the 10th (2001–05) and 11th (2006–10) Five-Year Plans, and to individual
energy-production entities, mainly through mandated RE shares.
The national target was ambitious for all technologies with special focus on wind and
biomass, achieving the following:
• Wind: 5 GW installed and 12,300 GWh generated in 2010, and 30 GW installed and 73,800
GWh generated in 2020.
• Biomass: 5.5 GW installed and 27,280 GWh generated in 2010, and 30 GW installed and
148,800 GWh generated in 2020.
• Small hydropower: 50 GW installed and 205,000 GWh generated in 2010, and 75 GW
installed and 307,500 GWh generated in 2020.
• Solar PV: 0.3 GW installed and 474 GWh generated in 2010, and 1.8 GW installed and 2,844
GWh generated in 2020.
The key to China’s success is a wide and diverse mix of approaches, pragmatically combining
three different policy instruments:
• Wind concessions, with a strict though unofficial price ceiling (however, developers bene-
fited from compensatory subsidies per kilowatt-hour generated when bid prices failed to
provide them with adequate returns);
box continues next page
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142 Summary of Findings and Recommendations across Sectors
Box 8.1 The Experience of China with Scaling Up Renewable Energy (continued)
• Feed-in prices for biomass and lately for wind; and
• RE obligations on generators, provinces, and grid companies.
These measures were supported by a clearly articulated political will and a strong domestic
market that contributes to the growth of local wind power equipment manufacturing. Despite
some problems, such as the difficulty of managing the multiplication of the projects at the
national level and the different project approval standards applied at the local level, technical
problems or fiscal disadvantages, the achievements made are impressive and unprecedented.
They provide a successful example of the incentives needed for the development of RE.
Sources: World Bank/ESMAP 2011; WRI 2011.
Rather than relegate them to ad-hoc projects supported by international
financiers, the government should integrate low-carbon development into main-
stream policies and programs. Promoting this development should include the
definition of objectives and the accountabilities to accomplish them. Based on
the findings of this book, specific targets (for a time horizon of 2015–20) that
the FGN might consider are as follows:
• As part of the Agricultural Transformation Agenda (ATA), bring up to 1 million
hectares under sustainable land management practices, which can at the same
time raise yields, increase climate resilience, and reduce net carbon emissions.
• Achieve a share of 20 percent of grid-based power generated by RE sources,
50 percent of total gas powered generation coming from combined-cycle gas
turbines (CCGTs), and 20 percent of all off-grid supply being generated by
renewables and hybrid systems.
• Provide 40 percent of urban mass transit in the 10–15 largest cities by formal
bus services using large urban buses and bus rapid transit (BRT).
percent
• Reduce the associated gas flared in joint venture (JV) operations by 80
compared to current levels and maintain the fraction of associated gas flared in
production sharing contract (PSC) operations at 5 percent.
Sector-specific options, such as regulatory reforms and financial incentive
schemes, can be found in the recommendations at the end of each of the sector-
specific chapters (4–7).
Recommendation: Mobilize Resources for Climate Action
Addressing the financial barriers that most often prevent adoption of clean
technologies is key to promoting low-carbon development. The creation or
scaling up of instruments to mobilize financial resources domestically is impor-
tant. Most of these instruments are sector-specific and thus discussed in the
preceding chapters.
This section addresses two key areas related to the mobilization of resources
from international sources: carbon markets, including the Clean Development
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Summary of Findings and Recommendations across Sectors 143
Mechanism (CDM), and the “nationally appropriate mitigation actions” (NAMAs),
as a conduit to help developing countries articulate low-carbon p riorities that
could be supported by a variety of international climate finance instruments.
Carbon Markets and the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)
Carbon markets encompass a variety of arrangements where assets that result in
reduction of carbon emissions are traded for a price. One of the most important
systems is the CDM, established under the Kyoto Protocol in 1997 and opera-
tional since 2001 (see box 8.2).
Box 8.2 Carbon Finance: A Brief Overview
Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)
With more than 3,800 projects registered in developing countries, the Clean Development
Mechanism (CDM), established under the Kyoto Protocol in 1997 and operational since 2001,
has exceeded all expectations. However, over two-thirds of all the registered projects, and over
three-quarters of all issued certified emissions reductions (CERs), originate from a handful of
countries. Africa’s share still represents only about 2 percent of projects registered under the
CDM. Despite being the most populous country in Africa (158 million people) and the third
economy in size, just after South Africa and the Arab Republic of Egypt, Nigeria ranks poorly in
the use of the CDM, both at the global and African levels. As of February 2012, Nigeria had only
seven registered CDM projects, which have issued approximately 17,650 kCER almost equal to
the emissions savings of the 40 registered projects in South Africa. There are another
16
projects in the validation process; however, fewer projects are entering the CDM pipeline as
a result of the falling market prices for CERs.
Programs of Activities (PoAs)
In addition to stand-alone CDM projects, Nigeria has four programs of activities (PoAs) regis-
tered, which promote efficient cook stoves. Under this new instrument, Nigeria is lagging
behind its peers, with a similar situation as CDM projects: South Africa has 37 PoAs in the pipe-
line and Kenya 11, out of a total of 85 in the whole African continent.
Overall, Nigeria appears to be at a disadvantage compared to the African average. Nigeria
has only 6 percent of the overall CDM projects and only 2 percent of PoAs. In terms of issued
CERs, Nigeria has achieved 20% of the CERs issued to Africa due to two large gas utilization
projects. However, Africa has received only 3.6% of total global CERs. Even using GDP as a cri-
terion instead of population, it is clear that Nigeria has underused its CDM possibilities.
Looking Ahead: New Instruments to Access Carbon Finance
Important CDM reforms are under way to expand the scope of the mechanism, improve pro-
cess efficiency, and increase regional distribution. At the same time, the focus of the interna-
tional negotiations is shifting toward new market-based instruments. Their design is expected
to start taking shape under the international negotiations in the near future. However, the
full-fledged development of these instruments will likely take several years.
box continues next page
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144 Summary of Findings and Recommendations across Sectors
Box 8.2 Carbon Finance: A Brief Overview (continued)
Under the current market slow-down and given the European Union decision to prohibit
new-project CERs beyond 2013 under the EU (European Union) Emissions Trading System
(ETS) unless they are from least-developed countries, the demand for CERs may remain limited.
In this environment, the reformed and expanded CDM program will be an important basis for
the development of new instruments—such as the new market-based mechanism (NMM)
agreed at the 17th Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC (COP17), which could be particu-
larly relevant for Nigeria.
The current project-by-project approach has clear limitations in the context of sector-wide
transformation and is not well-adapted to deal with multi-level and multi-actor initiatives.
Under new rules, adopting a higher level of aggregation for baseline setting and monitoring
could allow more flexibility and efficiency. This could potentially facilitate monitoring and
verification and foster the uptake of activities in sectors such as transport, which has been
affected by high data requirements.
The current set of CDM rules excludes from financing eligibility a range of
projects (in RE, forestry, agriculture) that can make important contributions to
global mitigation efforts. In addition, the CDM is a mechanism based on results
(that is, payment is made only when emissions are avoided, that is, year by year),
and therefore does not provide the upfront financing that is needed to support
the typically high investment costs of low-carbon technologies. In line with much
of Africa, Nigeria has benefited little to date from CDM opportunities.
As discussed in box 8.2, there is an active debate on the reform of CDM and
the identification of additional market-based mechanisms more relevant for
developing countries. The findings of this study indicate that Nigeria has the
potential to prevent carbon emissions of as much as 3.7 Gt CO2e over 25 years.
Even if just a fraction of that could be turned into assets tradable in the carbon
markets of the future, the revenue potential could be significant. This suggests
that it would be worthwhile for Nigeria to monitor closely ongoing international
discussions on carbon markets. The rest of this section summarizes prospects for
carbon market evolution in the sectors of interest for Nigeria.
CDMs and Gas Flaring Reduction
Historically, the project-by-project approach under the CDM has been a poor fit
to the multi-sectoral nature of gas flaring reductions issue in Nigeria. A more
streamlined CDM with more standardized approaches could bring interesting
new opportunities to reduce CDM-related uncertainties. Carbon-based instru-
ments need to allow for different levels of aggregation, applicable to clusters of
fields with relevant infrastructure. A different approach for baseline setting and
additionality demonstration is needed. This would allow reducing regulatory
risks of carbon revenues. New carbon market mechanisms now being developed
are moving in this direction.
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Summary of Findings and Recommendations across Sectors 145
CDMs and the Power Sector
In the power sector too, the current project-by-project approach shows clear
limitation for sector-wide intervention. The deployment of RE and EE strategy
at the national level requires intervention at multiple levels, from public inter-
vention, private sector involvement, and incentives at the user level.
Given Nigeria’s priority to expand the capacity of the national grid and
expand energy services, it is essential that new crediting instruments have the
flexibility to consider alternatives baseline scenarios, rather than the historical
level. The reference level for crediting (baseline) under the existing mechanism
has been disadvantageous for countries facing unmet demand, such as limited
power generation capacity. Suppressed demand has recently been recognized
under the CDM, but it is not yet fully integrated into existing methodologies for
calculating carbon credits. Moving toward new crediting instruments, it is clear
that challenges remain for the application of this concept to different accounting
rules that are more aggregated and potentially based on inventory data for the
sector.
CDMs in Agriculture and Forestry
The experience with developing land use, land use change, and forestry
(LULUCF) projects under the CDM has proved challenging. The main barriers
include the nonpermanence of credits in the LULUCF sector, limitation of
scope to afforestation and reforestation (A/F), and the extensive monitoring
requirements.
The experience with temporary crediting adopted for LULUCF mitigation
activities under the CDM highlights the dampening effect of temporary credits
on investments in emission removal activities. To address the problem, it is
important to have uniform crediting and accounting procedures, so as to
ensure that credits are fungible across sectors. In the case of LULUCF, this
requires addressing the issue of nonpermanence. An important step in this
direction has been made at the 17th Conference of the Parties (COP) of the
UNFCCC, when the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice
(SBSTA) was requested to review alternatives approaches to resolve the
problem.
The Durban COP gave mandate to SBSTA to address two additional barriers
to LULUCF-related carbon markets. First, SBSTA was tasked to review possible
expansion of eligible activities (currently limited to A/F), to include wetlands and
croplands. While an extension of eligible activities is unlikely to be of significance
for the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol, the modalities and
procedures that would be defined could serve for future crediting instruments.
Second, SBSTA was also requested to consider approaches for more inclusive,
and activity-based, approaches to accounting. Such a shift could potentially
result in simplified monitoring requirements, thereby addressing another key
obstacle that has hampered the uptake of LULUCF projects throughout the life
of the CDM.
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146 Summary of Findings and Recommendations across Sectors
Recommendation: Formulate Nigeria’s Position on the Reform of
Carbon Markets
The previous discussion suggests that Nigeria has much at stake in the evolution
of carbon markets. In recognition of this, the Ministry of Environment in partner-
ship with the Ministry of Finance, and in consultation with relevant MDAs, could
formulate a carbon-market position paper for submission to UNFCCC negotia-
tions and other relevant forums. Such a paper would discuss how the CDM, and
carbon markets more generally, should be reformed to enable Nigeria to turn as
much as possible of the mitigation potential identified in this book into carbon
revenues. It could also identify priorities for programs of activities (PoAs) to
promote the sale of carbon assets on a programmatic, or sector-wide basis, rather
than project-by-project.
Nigeria’s Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs)
In the context of the UN Climate Change Convention (UNFCCC) and in par-
ticular of the Copenhagen Accord and Cancun Agreement, NAMAs refer to a set
of policies and actions each country undertakes as part of a commitment to
reduce GHG emissions. NAMAs recognize that different countries may take dif-
ferent nationally appropriate actions, taking into account equity considerations
and the principle of differentiated responsibilities and capabilities. The concept
of NAMAs also emphasizes financial assistance from developed countries to
assist developing countries in their efforts to reduce GHG emissions.
As of May 2012, 44 developing country parties have presented their NAMAs
to the UNFCCC. Of the pledges published by the UNFCCC secretariat in Bonn
in Germany, three African nations’ were prominent: Ethiopia listed 75 projects,
including a new rail line to be powered by renewable energy. The Central African
Republic declared that it would expand its forests to cover a quarter of its terri-
tory. Coˆ te d’Ivoire listed a plan for more hydropower, RE, and forest manage-
ment. Nigeria has developed, but not yet finalized, its own NAMA document
(see box 8.3).
Box 8.3 Nigeria’s Progress toward Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions
(NAMAs)
Nigeria is in the process of defining its NAMA framework. The FGN considers them a good tool
to target more strategic, long-term measures that are unlikely to be funded through carbon
market mechanisms, which tend to focus on short-term emission impacts. Nigeria seeks to
make NAMAs the standard framework of mitigation finance using the following criteria:
• “Bankable“ programs or scalable projects
• Official endorsement by the Nigerian government
• Significant positive sustainable development impacts
• Robust monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) (ex-ante/ex-post)
box continues next page
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Summary of Findings and Recommendations across Sectors 147
Box 8.3 Nigeria’s Progress toward Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) (continued)
• Appropriate cost-effectiveness
• Efficient co-funding arrangements through national budget
• Adopting international high-quality standards for NAMAs, including the presence of a
strong, transparent, trustworthy framework
• Simplifying co-financing arrangements for NAMAs to spread risks and achieve an adequate
scale
• Making full use of decades of experience with project finance by commercial, multilateral,
bilateral, and national development banks
• Focusing resources to activities where there is a financing gap to fill; and a demonstrated
value added
• Improving coordination and transparency: create a sound NAMA oversight and climate
finance registry
Examples of Potential Nigerian NAMAs
The following are examples of NAMAs identified for development in Nigeria:
• Expanding urban bus transport in Lagos City
• Supporting renewable electricity production through a feed-in tariff
• Promoting energy-efficient appliances in the residential and public sector: refrigeration
appliances, air conditioners, lighting (compact fluorescent lamps [CFLs] and LEDs), electric
motors and fans, heating appliances
• Promoting energy efficiency (EE) in the industrial sector: energy demand-side management
and the developing building codes
• Reducing carbon and ozone emissions and waste from commerce and industry, including
avoidance of gas flaring in the oil and gas sector, the fugitive emissions of ozone depleting
substances, and end-of-life management of appliances
• Managing agricultural, municipal, and industrial waste
Additional proposed mitigation measures in Nigeria include the Green Wall Sahara Project (that
entails the planting of trees); the Save 80 Fuel-Efficient Wood Stove (a UNFCCC-registered CDM
project that seeks to save 80 percent of firewood, reduce emissions, and curb desertification);
a switch from the conventional lighting to the solar lighting with energy-saving bulbs; deter-
mination of the carbon footprint of productive facilities; and creation of an International Green
Hall of Fame (as an incentive to reward individuals and corporate bodies to reduce their carbon
footprint).
Source: Federal Ministry of Environment 2011.
Recommendation: Articulate Nigeria’s Vision for Low-Carbon Development
by Finalizing the NAMAs
The document defining Nigeria’s NAMAs could be a natural vehicle to accom-
plish the following goals: (1) articulate Nigeria’s overall vision and strategy on
low-carbon development, (2) define an internal consensus among stakeholders
on priority policies and investment for climate action, and (3) better position the
country in international discussions on climate agreements and climate finance.
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148 Summary of Findings and Recommendations across Sectors
Completion of the Nigeria NAMA document should be accelerated, supported
by the findings in this book. The resulting priorities should be endorsed at the
highest level of decision making in the FGN to ensure policy relevance and
concrete follow-up.
Note
1. This scenario reduced cumulative emissions through 2035 by 40% relative to the
reference scenario, compared to a 43% reduction due to the original low-carbon
scenario. It cost about the same as the original low-carbon scenario and slightly more
than the base case. This implies substantial robustness to key uncertainties of the main
findings of the analysis.
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Low-Carbon Development • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-9925-5
The Federal Government of Nigeria has adopted an ambitious strategy to make the nation the world’s 20th
largest economy by 2020. Sustaining such a rapid pace of growth will entail an expansion of activity in many
sectors, including those with high carbon emissions per unit of output. In the absence of sound policies to
accompany economic growth with efforts to reduce its carbon footprint, emissions of greenhouse gases
could more than double in the next two decades, with negative consequences on the local and global
environment.
Over the course of two years, the World Bank has worked closely with the Federal Government of Nigeria
as well as with representatives of academia, the private sector, and civil society to produce the first
comprehensive low-carbon development study for Nigeria.
Low-Carbon Development: Opportunities for Nigeria presents the final results of that detailed analytical effort.
Focused on four key sectors—agriculture and land use, oil and gas, power, and transport—the analysis
shows that low-carbon development can be an attractive and viable proposition for Nigeria, not only
because it would position the country as a leader in the global fight against climate change, but also
because, more importantly, it would generate significant local benefits. These include cheaper and more
diversified provision of electricity; more efficient operation of the oil and gas industry; more productive and
climate-resilient agriculture; and better transport services, resulting in fuel economies, better air quality, and
reduced congestion. Taken together, these measures will assist in the overall fight to end poverty and build
shared prosperity.
Low-Carbon Development: Opportunities for Nigeria identifies a number of specific actions that Nigeria can
undertake—such as enhanced governance for climate action, integration of climate consideration in the
Agriculture Transformation Agenda, promotion of energy-efficiency programs, scale-up of low-carbon
technologies in power generation, accelerated reduction of gas flaring, and enhanced fuel efficiency in
transport—to move toward a model of development that reduces carbon emissions while at the same time
spurring the broad-based economic growth needed to end poverty.
ISBN 978-0-8213-9925-5
Africa Renewable Energy
and Access Program (AFREA)
SKU 19925