Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Ferghana Valley Water Resources Management Phase-I Project (P110538) Ferghana Valley Water Resources Management Phase-I Project (P110538) EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA | Uzbekistan | Water Global Practice | IBRD/IDA | Specific Investment Loan | FY 2010 | Seq No: 14 | ARCHIVED on 23-Dec-2016 | ISR26501 | Implementing Agencies: Ministry of Agriculture and Water Resources Key Dates Key Project Dates Bank Approval Date:24-Sep-2009 Effectiveness Date:03-Mar-2010 Planned Mid Term Review Date:01-Oct-2013 Actual Mid-Term Review Date:11-Nov-2013 Original Closing Date:31-Jul-2016 Revised Closing Date:31-Dec-2016 Project Development Objectives Project Development Objective (from Project Appraisal Document) The Project Development Objective (PDO) is to improve agricultural production in areas affected by water-logging, and to reduce damage to housing and infrastructure from rising ground water levels and salinity in the project areas. Has the Project Development Objective been changed since Board Approval of the Project Objective? No PHRPDODEL Components Name Improvement of Irrigation and Drainage Network:(Cost $71.41 M) Institutional and Agricultural Development Support:(Cost $6.09 M) Project Management Monitoring and Evaluation:(Cost $4.35 M) Overall Ratings Name Previous Rating Current Rating Progress towards achievement of PDO  Moderately Satisfactory  Moderately Satisfactory Overall Implementation Progress (IP)  Moderately Satisfactory  Moderately Satisfactory Overall Risk Rating  Substantial  Substantial 12/23/2016 Page 1 of 7 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Ferghana Valley Water Resources Management Phase-I Project (P110538) Implementation Status and Key Decisions The progress towards achievement of the project development objectives (PDO) and overall implementation progress (IP) are rated as Moderately Satisfactory. The project has substantially achieved its objectives of improving agricultural production in areas affected by water-logging, and reducing damage to housing and infrastructure from rising ground water levels and salinity in the project districts. Out of six PDO indicators, four indicators (direct project beneficiaries, female beneficiaries, decreased groundwater level below surface, increase in crop yields) have exceeded the target values and one indicator (decreasing area with high groundwater mineralization) has fully achieved the target value. One indicator (reduced flooded settlement areas) has nearly achieved the target value (13.1% against the target of 0%). The groundwater level decreased in the project area according to piezometer measurements; however, some residents still note the damage to housing as indicated by survey results. In 2016, 13.1% of respondents reported damage to housing as compared to 67.4% in 2010. The "Reduced flooded settlement areas" indicator is a subjective measure as the data collected through surveys reflect residents' perception of the damage to housing. Of particular note is that the extent of damage is less severe and is limited to walls with no complaints of flooded basements, which was the main issue before the project. Implementation of the main civil works ICB1 contract under Component A (Improvement of Irrigation and Drainage Network) has been completed. In addition to construction and rehabilitation of surface drainage network, the project completed and handed over the rehabilitation of 242 Vertical Drainage Wells (VDWs), now owned and managed by the Pump Station Department (UNS), and the rehabilitation of 34 VDWs within the city of Rishtan, completed 10 artesian wells constructed and handed over to the Hydrological Amelioration Expedition (HGAE), drilled 1,411 pressure relief wells as well as 34 observation wells at 6 and 30 m depth. All activities under Component B (Institutional strengthening and agricultural development support) have been completed to date. The project provided 141 days of training (against the target value of 135), trained 1,953 land users in adopting sustainable land management practices with 796 farmers (against the target of 1,000 people) who adopted these practices. Further, the project strengthened capacity of 25 Water Consumer Associations (WCAs) in the project area. One of the key achievements in the WCA activities is the increase of the WCAs’ Irrigation Service Fee (ISF) collection rate from 33.5 percent in 2011 to 42.9 percent in 2015. As for Component C (Project management, audit and M&E), M&E Consultant submitted a Project Impact Assessment Report (Borrower's Completion Report) and is expected to update the table of project outputs by the project closing date. Since construction works are still ongoing, the final invoices from ICB2 and ICB 3.1 (lot 1) contractors and M&E Consultant have not yet been submitted. The mission was informed that the final submission of invoices is expected at the end of December 2016 and final disbursements are expected to be completed in January 2017. In addition to achievement of key PDO indicators, the project had significant impact crop diversification. In response to the lower groundwater tables, farmers have expanded their farming areas, and have started planting vegetables, orchards, horticulture products and other higher value crops. According to the Financial and Economic analysis of the project provided by the M&E Consultant in the final Project Impact Assessment Report, the Project’s financial internal rate of return (FIRR) was estimated at 48.5% and the economic internal rate of return at 51.7%. These results were exceptionally high and were mainly driven by the increased cropping intensity and diversification to higher valued crops. Risks Systematic Operations Risk-rating Tool Risk Category Rating at Approval Previous Rating Current Rating Political and Governance  --  Substantial  Substantial Macroeconomic  --  Moderate  Moderate Sector Strategies and Policies  --  Substantial  Substantial Technical Design of Project or Program  --  Substantial  Substantial Institutional Capacity for Implementation and Sustainability  --  Low  Low Fiduciary  --  Moderate  Moderate Environment and Social  --  High  High Stakeholders  --  Substantial  Substantial Other  --  --  -- Overall  --  Substantial  Substantial 12/23/2016 Page 2 of 7 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Ferghana Valley Water Resources Management Phase-I Project (P110538) Results Project Development Objective Indicators PHINDPDOTBL  Reduced flooded settlement areas, Percentage (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 67.40 33.20 13.10 0.00 Date 03-Mar-2010 03-Jul-2015 08-Dec-2016 31-Dec-2016 Comments According to the results of survey conducted in July 2016, no flooded basements are reported. PHINDPDOTBL  Direct project beneficiaries (Number, Core) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 331,700.00 583,300.00 535,000.00 Date 03-Mar-2010 05-Dec-2014 08-Dec-2016 31-Dec-2016 Comments This indicator is based on the number of population in the project area. PHINDPDOTBL  Female beneficiaries (Percentage, Core Supplement) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 30.00 49.50 30.00 PHINDPDOTBL  Decreased groundwater level, meter below surface (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target 12/23/2016 Page 3 of 7 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Ferghana Valley Water Resources Management Phase-I Project (P110538) Value 44.60 38.05 33.10 52.05 Date 03-Mar-2010 03-Jul-2015 08-Dec-2016 31-Dec-2016 Comments The project exceeded the target value (based on Hydrogeology and Amelioration Expedition (HGAE) data): 0.0-1.0 m - 0% 1.0-1.5 m - 7.7% 1.5--2.0 m - 33.1% The area with the groundwater level 2-3 m below surface has almost doubled from 17% in 2011 to 32% in 2015. PHINDPDOTBL  Decreasing area with high ground water mineralization (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.10 0.01 0.00 0.01 Date 03-Mar-2010 12-Dec-2014 08-Dec-2016 31-Dec-2016 Comments The project achieved the target value (based on HGAE data): Non-saline - 41.5% (against target 42%) Low-saline - 57.7% (against target 57%) Mid-saline - 0.7% (against target 0.99%) High-saline - 0% (against target 0.01%) PHINDPDOTBL  Increased in crop yields for major crops (tons/ha) in % (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 -- 65.60 40.00 Date 03-Mar-2010 03-Jul-2015 08-Dec-2016 31-Dec-2016 Comments Data for 2016 crop yields are not available because statistical data for crop yields will be available in February 2017 after project closing. Crop yields in 2015: Cotton - 2.7 t per ha (+11.2%) Wheat - 5.8 t per ha (+65.6%) Fruits (private farms) - 11.5 t per ha (283%) Fruits (dehkans) - 24.7 t per ha (+311.6%) Vegetables - 34.7 t per ha (+73.5%) 12/23/2016 Page 4 of 7 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Ferghana Valley Water Resources Management Phase-I Project (P110538) Overall Comments Intermediate Results Indicators PHINDIRITBL  Client days of training provided (number) (Number, Core) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 141.00 141.00 135.00 Date 03-Mar-2010 03-Jul-2015 08-Dec-2016 31-Dec-2016 PHINDIRITBL  Client days of training provided - Female (number) (Number, Core Breakdown) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 Date 03-Mar-2010 03-Jul-2015 08-Dec-2016 31-Dec-2016 PHINDIRITBL  Land users adopting sustainable land mgt. practices as a result of the project (Number, Core) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 1,953.00 796.00 1,000.00 Date 03-Mar-2010 03-Jul-2015 08-Dec-2016 31-Dec-2016 Comments Trainings were provided to 1,953 participants. Based on survey results, 796 people adopted at least one sustainable land management practice. 12/23/2016 Page 5 of 7 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Ferghana Valley Water Resources Management Phase-I Project (P110538) PHINDIRITBL  Length of irrigation canals and drains rehabilitated and functional (km) (Kilometers, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 1,202.20 1,384.30 1,349.00 Date 03-Mar-2010 03-Jul-2015 08-Dec-2016 31-Dec-2016 Overall Comments Data on Financial Performance Disbursements (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Currency Original Revised Cancelled Disbursed Undisbursed Disbursed P110538 IDA-46480 Effective XDR 42.20 37.30 4.90 32.99 4.30 88% Key Dates (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Approval Date Signing Date Effectiveness Date Orig. Closing Date Rev. Closing Date P110538 IDA-46480 Effective 24-Sep-2009 09-Feb-2010 03-Mar-2010 31-Jul-2016 31-Dec-2016 Cumulative Disbursements 12/23/2016 Page 6 of 7 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Ferghana Valley Water Resources Management Phase-I Project (P110538) Restructuring History Level 2 Approved on 30-Apr-2015 ,Level 2 Approved on 28-Dec-2015 ,Level 2 Approved on 28-Jul-2016 Related Project(s) There are no related projects. 12/23/2016 Page 7 of 7 Public Disclosure Copy