E NO-V I R N M E N T D E P A R T-M E N T PA D ISSEMINATI--N.. NOTES TOWARD ENVIRONMENTALLY AND SOCIALLY SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT i w l a Number 27. Social Assessment Series The Demographics of Ethnicity: Implications for Project Support in Central Asia The study on which this dissemination note is based points to the need for awareness of the sensitivities surrounding interethnic relations in the Central Asian countries in future. World Bank operations in the region. Two main reasons account for this. First, the political identities of many peoples of Central Asia are more closely aligned to ethnic affiliation than to nation states. Second, projects that will require the acquisition of land will need to be cognizant of historical claims and counterclaims based upon ethnic considerations. States' boundaries have .been changed periodically during the twentieth century, both to accommo- date the political expediencies of the former USSR as well as to divide and rule the various ethnic groups. The newly independent countries of Central Asia-Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan (see map)-each include a number of different ethnic groups, in addition to more recent immigrants, such as Russians, Germans and Ukrainians. The total population of the five countries was approximately 49 million in 1989 and is expected to have reached some 60 million in 2000. IBRD 27108 - 60' 0.' '0' AO0 79' 80. . -0' 0 250 500 KILOMETE2S 50 .CENTRAL ASIAN REPUBLICS 0 ' 250 500 MILES RUSSIAN FEDERATION . r .+C-- RUSSIAN FEDERATION -50° §% ' z .,N v/ 5 K*AZAKHSTAN MONGOLI "'21~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~1 ARMIA \~ ~ ~~~~KSA OfIRN 8.#JPKISAYR, GY2lay/oiocs nen0smn ARMENIA S AZERBA .CHINA 40' S. ~ ~ ~ *j'~~~( Va- AJNCiTAN - Ts nT t he bundnTs-cdfo, s.- dphape A AfGHANISTAN Id My Wh.W..-asintoI,, Dhh. -3 US.A AUGUST~o- do I holy. pa Th1 WFlld IRAQ, ISLAMIC REPUBLIC ' & OIl G5OIP, Oy ludJhh-t on the leal OF IRAN oAfA sae elan teuoy oYn any en--smet .~~~~~~~AI INDI Oh Oeplnc f Ouch bwuda-C 60' 70'. 90. 30'N. C I I I /Xs.. I ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~30' JUNE 1995 This note is based on a paper by Nadia H. Youssef, consultant to EMTEN. To obtain the complete paper contact Ayse Kudat (EMTEN), The World Bank, 1818 H Street, N.W_ Washington, D.C. 20433, U.SA: AUGUST 1995 Fdx: (202) 477-0711. Untilrecently, the most striking ethnic Thie first group comprised Russians, Ukrai-7 : cleavage in the region was that between nians, Jews, Tatars, Armenians, and others ethnic RussiansIand Cenrtral Asian national i during 1 926-59 to: implement the Soviets' groups; however, following the collapse of. industrialization and collectivization ' - 0 'the Soviet Union, the Central Asian coun- . programs. Not only did these ventures tries are now adapting themselves to three establish control over .the Central Asian. major transformations after seven decades countries' economies, buLt over many of Soviet rule: political independence, aspects of their society and religion. The economic restructuring, and a logs of second group resulted from Stalin'sdeporta-' specialized manpower resources with the - tion policies, which forcibly relocated. departure of Russians and other Europeans. Crimeans, Germans, Koreans, Turks, and The independence of the countries is, others in the region. While some cultural. ... : : however, somewhat limited by economic convergence of this ethnic mix resulted 'turnoil and Russia's doctrine of holding from the mass media, schools, and so on, itself responsible for.the safety of Russians this was insufficient to inspire feelings of in the territori4s of the former Soviet commonality, and in the case of ethnic Union. . .. ' Central Asians was'limited to thoe living in : . 0 0 :Many believedthat following theSoviet;, urban areas. Union's demise the differences between The critical implication for develop- indigenous Central Asians would be less : ment interventions of the history of this salient that those characterizing the relation- region is whether: or not national politics ship between Central Asians and Russians. take precedence over ethnic .politics. This has not turned out to be the case. The contentious mix the "ethnicity Ethnic Composition factor" presents today is largely a result of The table shows the distribution of the the Soviet legacy. To the inhabitants of the major ethnic groups in'the: Central Asian vast regions of Central Asia-Moslem countries.-The countries can be divided into descendants of Turco-Mongol and Persian three groups based on.the proportion that peoples-taken over by the Russians, the root ethnic groups represent in the national ..dconcept of a national identity was-a com- population as follows: pletely foreign one. By creating: five distinct * Group 1, in-which'root ethnics are a national entities the Soviets not. only. predominant majority: Turkmenistan, intended to modernize the people of Central - Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan' --.Asia;,butrecognizedthe.threat the strong * Group 2, in which rootethnics make up -: . :- Pan-Islamic movement of the 1920s posed half of the population: Kyrgyz Republic to Soviet dominanceyover the region. In ** Group 3, in which root ethnics are a carving out the territories, the Soviets. mninority: Kazakhstan. ensured that sufficient ethnic diversity was The dominant minority groups in all the - - included within each boundary.to prevent. .countries are ethnic Uzbeks and ethnic the emergence of a powerful, unified force Russians. In 1989 Russians outnumbered . - . 0 with anti-Soviet tendencies.'To reinforce . the Uzbeks as minorities in all the countries this divide and conquer strategy, the Soviets except Tajikistan. As concerns Central redrew the countries' national boundaries a Asian minorities, Uzbeks invariably out- number of times during the 1920s and : number all other Central Asians and are 1930s. This'not only further confused the ' * often influential in certain economic sectors, problem of riational and ethnic identity, but such as small-scale business, and in the fostered deep resentments that are at the 0country's religious life.. root of many of today's conflicts. - The Russian settlement of Central Asia . Under the Soviets the Central Asian was a hierarchical penetration into the people experienced sharp cultural capitals and industrial centers, with all 2 discontinuities:caused by the massive movements controlled by Soviet administra- inflows of two major groups of immigrants. * tors, planners, and ministries, except for the Iflos -o e.s :, exep fo the - 0-: Ethnic Composition of the Central Asian, Countries, 1989. (percentage of population) Ethnic group Kazakhstan Kyrgyz Republic Taiikistdn . Turkmenistan lJzbekistan -Kazakh .40 . - * 3 4 Kyrgyz * 52 1 * 1 Talik * 1 62 5. Turkmen * * 72 1 Uzbek 2 13 24 . 9 71 Russiar 38 22 8 10 .-8 'Ukranian 5 3 1 . 1 German ' 6 2. . . . * Other 9 7 4 6 9 * Less than 1 percent Note: Figures have been rounded, thius the total does not always equal 100 percent. The source material was strongly biased toward optimizing elhnic homogeneity and.tended to underpldy the Russian and European. outmigration from Central Asia since 1989. Russian, Ukranian, German and other ethnic groups aliso include people who have since migrated frcm the region. a. This figure is unreliable and shouk probably be at least'doubled or tripled. Soorce: Soviet census, 1989. Russian settlement in Kazakhstan and be the official state language. Most of Kyrgyz Republic, which because it predated those outmigrating were highly educated the Soviet revolution also penetrated into urban professionals of working age. rural areas. The following three distinct The Russians overwhelmingly settled in periods characterize the changing urban areas, which reinforced uneven demography of Russians in Central Asia: developm.ent of the Russian and indigenous 1926-59: Russians and otheir Slavs - populations as those in urban areas ben- : poured into Central Asia and established . efited from higher quality education' better Russian control over all aspects of the . employment opportunities; exposure to new region's economy and society. ideas; and superior services, especially * 1959-89: more Russians' left Central Asia health services. 'However, current rates of than arrived, especially from urban . population growth and the increasing rural- .Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. The mnodified urban' migration of Central Asians, coupled ethnic distribution profile was particu- . with the' gradual departure of Russians and larly striking in Kazakhstan, where ethnic other Europeans, will result in a mnore even Kazakhs finally outnumbered Russians: - demographic balance. * After 1989: while data are scanty, the evidence indicates that while many ' . . Social and Economic Russians left the region, many other Dimensions of Ethnicity stayed, though possibly moving to While the increase in population of another Central Asian counl:ry such as . ethnic Central Asians in comparison to that -Kazakhstan, perhaps because of the of non-Central Asians varied by country, in difficult economic conditions they would . all cases, from 1959 onward, all the coun- have encountered had they ireturned to- . tries witnessed not only impressive growth Russia. The main reasons thbse that left in their overall populations, but dramatic did so were fears for their safety follow- increases in the demographic base of ethnic ing a series of inter-ethnic conflicts in . Central Asians. This was caused by (a) a 3 Z '- Uzbekistail, Kyrgyz Republic, and . substantial difference in birth rates between. Tajikistan and constitutional amendments ethnic Central Asians'and Soviet Europeans, passed by the Central Asian, countries - b) the growing tendency among Russians that declared their national language to to leave Central Asia, and (c) a strong resistance among indigenous Central Asians has beenpervasive, with 55rmillion Central to leaving their countries. Asians regarding themselves as Moslems. Except for Kazakhstan, all the countries, Two issues are relevant here. The first is are moderate to highifertifity societies. whether this reborn Islam can act as a Given the countries' critical economic unifying force within the region. The second, problems, population.growth is likelyto is whether. Central Asian countries are -result in hindrances to- development, growth vulnerable to an Islamic takeover. The in unemployment,; and.tremendous pressure longer current regimes provide fertile on resources. Nevertheless, many govern- grounds for continuing dissatisfaction, the ' ments continue 'to provide women with. more likely ethnic CentralfAsians are to turn incentives to bear large numbers of children. to radical Islam as offering the best pros- - Meanwhile, the healthconditions associated pects for change: with childbearing continue to-deteriorate as. indicated by infant and maternal mortality.' Recommendations for Ba Support rates. As concerns education, the gap in Central Asian Countries between urban and rural dwellers in educa- This report has two main findings: first, tional attainment is signifEcant. that the flank take a cautious approach to The growth in unemployment is likely project. initiation and development in despite vacancies in jobs requiring special-,' sensitive areas, taking account of past ized, highly skilled manpower. These jobs disputes and current tensions; and second, are disproportionally held by Russiahs and that the Bank needs to conduct rapid pre- other non-Central Asians. Whether this project appraisals and social assessments disproportionate representation is due to the related to ethnicity and build these into the lack of comparable skills among the indig- i dentification, design, and development ' enous population or to preferential treatment phaisesof projects supported in Central - given to Russians and other Europeans is . Asia. Appraisals will provide the database unclear. However, the Soviets' intent to on ethnicity needed for project preparation, '"russify" economic development in the and the social assessments will entail region clearly indicated that economic systematic investigations of social processes modernization-was inteided to by-pass most and other factors related to ethnicity that ethnic Central Asians. Thus the more indus- could affect the impact and sustainability of trial the country, the greater the dependence development interventions.. on non-Central Asians.- The following six areas are recom- mended for Bank support. These are areas Ethnic Tensions and Conflicts.: thatvrequire technical assistance to ensure Tensions and conflicts are not only that the benefits of development interven- politically significant,: they also affect; tion reach all ethnic groups and are distrib- - development interventions. Thus World utedequitably. Bank staff should be aware of the particular * Develop an ethnicity-specific database sensitivities governing inter-ethnic relations * Provide social safety niets for-disadvan- in the Central Asian countries because some taged social groups arnd the unemployed of the conflicts revolve around land disputes, * Reinforce a proactive labor market policy * $ control over resources, and residential to ensure ethnic equity in employment patterns. Their implications therefore , and income eaming become decisive factors' in decisions relating - Improve levels of preparedness and to1the location, design, planning, and imple- resourcefulness tomeet effectively the mentation of land resettlenient programs, challenge of a competitive and open infrastructure projects, and other activities. * economy Effect linkages between human resource The Reassertion of Islam development and specialized manpower 4 With the demise of Soviet-sponsored needs for'alI ethnic groups. atheism, Islam's resurgence in Central Asia * Improve women's reproductive'health. .-1@ Printed on 100% post-consumer recycled paper