Pollcy Research WORKING PAPERS Populailon, Health, and Nutritlon Population and Human Resources Department The World Bank November 1992 WPS 1033 Latin America and the Caribbean Region (and Northern America) Population Projections 1992-93 Edition My T. Vu Eduard Bos and Ann Levin In Latin America and the Caribbean, life expectancy is slightly above the world's average, which is 66. The total fertility rate for Latin America is intermediate at 3. 1, and replacement fertility is projected to be reached in every country no later than 2035. International net migration has a trivial effect on population growth at the regional level; projections of future net migration assume a gradual decline to zero from current levels. Policy Rcmh WozkingPpeasdisaminate the findings of wo* in p2greo and cawge the aichange of ideas amongBank staff and al otheres t in devlopmemissues. lhesepaper6, distdibu4dby thc Rcea rchAdvisoy Staff,cany thenamesoftheauthors, reflct only theirvie",andshoidbeused and dted accordingly.hefindirga intations. andconlusions auetheautho'ownMheyshould not be attibutd to the Worid Bank. its Board of Directs its managanent, or any of its member countries Policy Reserchl Population, Health, and Nutirtion WPS 1033 This paper is a product of the Population, Health, and Nutrition Division and the Population Policy and Advisory Service of the Population and Human Resources Department. Copies of the paper are available free from the World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433. Please contact Otilia Nadora, room S6-065, extension 31091 (November 1992). Population projections for all countries are Caribbean islands, the cause of population prepared annually by the World Bank's Popula- decline is outmigration, whereas in Eastem tion and Human Resources Department. They Europe it results from a combination of below- are published first in summary forn in the replacement fertility and outmigration. Bank's World Development Report and later in greater detail as technical notes or working * On the American continent, fertility in all papers and, in alternate years, as a book. countries has dropped to below 6 children per woman, but some countries have gone much Separate papers cover the six Bank regions: further than others. The total fertility rate for (I) Africa (Sub-Saharan), (2) Latin America and Latin America is intermediate at 3.1, and re- the Caribbean (and Northern America), (3) East placement fertility is projected to be reached in Asia and Pacific region and South Asia region every country no later than 2035. In Northern combined, and (4) Europe and Central Asia America, fertility is at 2 children per woman- region and Middle East and North Africa region that is, just below replacement level. combined. - At the regional level, international net Among trends observed: migration has a trivial effect on population growth. The most significant flow in the world All of the Bank's regions have positive occurs between Latin America and the Caribbean population growth rates, but a few countries are and Northern America, which amounts to just losing people. These countries are in one of two over one-half million persons per year. Migra- regions: in Latin America and the Caribbean, tion often occurs for unpredictable reasons, and where several small island countries (Dominica, is often reversed in a short time. The projections Grenada, and St. Kitts and Nevis) have recently of future net migration assume a gradual decline had negative growth rates, and in Europe (Bul- to zero from current levels. garia, Hungary, and Ireland). In the case of the The Policy Research Working PaperSeries disseninates the flndings of work under way in the Bank. Anobjective of the series is to get these findings out quickly, even if presentations are less than fully polished. The fndings, interpretations, and conclusions in these papers do not necessarily represent official Bank policy. Produced by the Policy Research Dissemination Center Latin America and the Caribbean Region Population Projections 1992-93 Edtilon My T. Vu Eduard Bos Ann Levin CONTENTS Foreword .......................... iii Detaid Popultion Projwons ............e. 1 Acknowledgements ....................... v World Regions, nd Income Groups ......... 1 Introduction ......................... vi World .......................... 2 LDC .......................... 4 Overview of Trends and Projections ....... viii MDC . .. 6 World and Regions .................. viii Population Growth ....... .... viii Geographic Regions Fertility ............xii Mortality ......... ii i Africa ......................... 8 Migration ........ xiv East Africa ........................ 10 Age Structure ........ xv WestAfrica ....................... 12 World Bank Regions and Income Groups .. xv North Africa .14 Some Country Results .......x........ xiii America ........................ 16 Summary Tables ..................... xxv Latin America and the Caribbean ....... 18 Northern America ................... 20 Special Topic I: Projecting AIDS Mortality .v. v Epidemiological Model ................ Iv Asia ........................ 22 Simulations ........iii East and Southeast Asia .............. 24 Application to Sub-Saharan Countries ..... . South Asi ......South.As i a.26 Conclusions ...............x......... k Southwest Asia ..................... 28 References ........................ bx Europe and Former Soviet Republics ..... 30 Special Topic II: Demographic Trends in the Republics of the Former U.S.S.R....b Oceania..............bn.. 32 References .......... bmv Income Groups Data and Methods ...... ...... bvi Sources of Population Data .......... .xxiv Low-income Economies ...... . 34 Loer-middle-income Economies .36 References ...... dv Upper-middle-income Economies ........ 38 High-income economies .40 Addendum ..... cv Nonreporting Nonmember Economies ..... 42 i Latn Amerlea and the Carbban Reglon (and NorthernAmerica) ..... 45 Grenada ..................... 92 Guadeloupe ..................... 94 LatinAmericaand the Caribbean .... 46 Guatemala ..................... 96 Country Departnment I ....... ..... 48 Guyana ..................... 98 CountryDepartment II ...... ..... 50 Haiti ..................... 100 CountzyDepartment II ...... .... 52 Honduras ..................... 102 Nonborrowers .................. 54 Jamaica ..................... 104 Martinique .................... 106 Countries, Economies, Mdex . M eo108 and Terrltorles ........... .. 59 Montserrat .................... 110 Netherlands Antilles ........ ..... 112 Antigua and Barbuda ............. 60 Nicaragua ..................... 114 Argentina ...... ....... 62 Other Latin America ........ .... 116 Bahamas, The ......... .... 64 Other Norther America ...... .... 118 Barbados ...... ....... 66 Panama ..................... 120 BeUze ............. 68 Paraguay ..................... 122 Bolivia ............. 70 Peru ..................... 124 Brazil ............. 72 PuertoRico ................... 126 Canada ..... ........ 74 St. Kittsand Nevis ......... ..... 128 Chile ............. 76 St. Lucia ..................... 130 Colombia ...... ....... 78 St. Vincent and the Grenadines .... 132 Costa Rica ...... ....... 80 Suriname ..................... 134 Cuba ............. 82 Trinidadand Tobago ....... ..... 136 Dominica ...... ....... 84 United States of America ...... ... 138 Dominican Rep ............. 86 Uruguay ..................... 140 Ecuador ............. 88 Venezuela .................... 142 El Salvador .................... 90 Virgin Islands (U.S.) .144 ii FOREWORD Populatlon projections for all countries are prepared annually by the Population and Human Resources Department of the World Bank. They are published first in summary form in the Bankes World Development Report and later in greater detail as technical notes or working papers and, in alternate years, as a bookl Four separate working papers cover the six Bank regions: Africa (Sub-Saharan), Latin America and the Caribbean (and Northern America), East Asia and Pacific region and South Asia region combined, and Europe and Central Asia region and Middle East and North Africa region combined. This year's projections contain two major changes from the previous edition. First, projected mortality from AIDS has been incorporated in the tables for Sub-Saharan African countries. Second, demographic estimates and projections are provided separately for each of the fifteen countries that constituted the Soviet Union. We Intend these papers to provide convenient and up-to-date references on the likely demographic future of each country. We hope it will facilitate the process of taking population into account in development work. Thomas W. Merrick Senior Population Adviser Population and Human Resources Department Iii ACKNOWLDGEMENTS A number of persons provided us with important information for this work or assisted us in preparing it In other ways. The Estimates and Projections Section of the U.N. Populadon Division has been continually supportive in providing us with data, even before their publication as U.N. assessments. Partly as a result, nonessential differences between these projections and the biennial U.N. assessments have been minimized. We are grateful to the section chief, Larry Helichman, and to his continually accommodating staff, as well as to the head of the division, Shunichi Inoue, and hope that the collaboration will continue. 'orld Bank country economists, population specialists, and the few demographers in the operating divisions have also provided us with recent population estimates, bri-aging to our attention government reports we might not otherwise see. This exercise was carried out using a personal computer program, ProjPC-II, written by Kenneth Hill of Johns Hopkins University. This work for this paper was started as part of the Population, Health, and Nutrition Division's work program. The paper was completed as a product of the Papulation Policy and Advisory Service of the Population and Human Resources Department. We are grateful to the division chief, Dr. Anthony R. Measham, and the department director, Ann 0. Hamilton, for their support of this work We also wish to acknowledge the interest of the Bank's International Economics Socioeconomic Data Division (IECSE), which not only utilizes our figures-for such important Bank purposes as estimating per capita GNP--and incorporates them into the databases it maintains and publications It distributes but also helps coordinate communications with country eonomists. Sulekha Patel and Taranjit Kaur of that division have been particularly helpful in the past year. v INTRODUCMION This paper provides population projections for each country, economy, or territory in the World Bank Latin America and the Caribbean Region, as well as for nonborrower countries in the same geographic area. Three companion papers provide similar projections for the other Bank regions. Each paper also contains projections for the world and for groups of countries for all regions an1 income groups. The introduction section (similar across the four regional papers) summarizes the main demographic trends and the projection results, discusses the projection methodology, and lists the sources of current population estimates and vital rates. These projections update those issued in 1991 as the 1990-91 Edition. This edition returns to the format of earlier editions, showing detailed age-sex distributions from 1985 onwards. This year's projections differ In two important ways from those issued previously. First, mortality from AIDS has been incorporated in countries in Sub-Saharan Africa where there is a measurable level of HIV infection, and has affected the projected population growth in these countries and for Africa as a whole. The procedures for projecting HIV and AIDS and a discussion of the impact of AIDS mortality on demographic indicators are presented as Special Topic I following the introduction. Second, as a result of recent political changes in some parts of the world, estimates and projections for several new countries have been added. These new projections cover the fifteen countries that constituted the Soviet Union (see Special Topic /7 below), the combined Germanies and Yemens, and the former Yugoslavian republics of Slovenia and Croatia. The cut-off date for revisions for this edition was April 15, 1992, so that political developments that occurred after that date could not be incorporated. TheAddendum section following the Sources discusses some of these late developments. Because of changes within the World Bank organizational structure, population projections of regional and country department aggregates are not comparable to those of previous years . New geographical regions have been formed and many of the country departments have changed their composition, partly as a result of the addition of many new borrower countries. For example, Asia has now been split into two separate regions, East Asia and the Paciflc and South Asia, each of which has three country departments, rather than the five previous departments under one region. Country departments in the Africa and Latin America regions, while keeping the same name, have also been restructured. Projection methods have changed only marginally since the previous edition. Essentially, recent country-specific data about levels and trends in fertility, mortality, and international migration are applied to available sex-age distnbutions in order to obtain short-run projections. Long-run projections, up to 2150, are made under the assumptions that fertility and mortality eventually become stable and net international migration declines to zero. One change in procedures from the previous edition involves a more gradual decline in the total fertility rate during the first period that fertility is projected to decline, followed by a more rapid decline than was previously assumed. This and other details of the methodology are described in the Data and Methods section. Caution is appropriate with all projections like these. They essentially involve working out the implications of assumptions about demographic trends. None of the results should be interpreted as indicating certitude about the future. Instead, they should be read with the universal qualifier that population will follow the indicated path if the assumptions prove to be correct. Vili INTRODUCTION OVERVIEW OF TRENDS AND PROJECIIONS In the following sections, recent demographic trends and projections for the future will be discussed. OveraU trends for the world, geographical regions and countries grouped by income level wiU be reviewed first, foM!owed by a presentation of some notable country results. Rapid demographic changes are taking place in some parts of the world, while in other parts demographic change is more gradual. Over the past few decades, Southeast Asian and Latin American countries have experienced rapid declines in mortality and fertility, while most Sub-Saharan African and Middle Eastern countries have seen only minor changes, with both mortality and fertility remaining at high levels. The more developed countries of Europe, North America, and Asia are currently also among the gradual changers, having lowered their mortality and fertility earlier. In many of these countries, fertility fluctuates in a narrow range below replacement -- below the level required for each generation to replace itself in the succeeding generation -- and mortality at most ages has reached levels so low that further declines can only be small. The different regional trends, and their implcations for future demographic indicators, wiDl now be discussed in greater detail. World and Regions Populaton Gh The world population for mid-1992 is estimated to be 5.44 billion, an increase of 180 millon over the population in mid-1990. By 2000, it is projected to increase to 6.17 billion, an increase of 12 percent over the 1992 estimate, and by 2025 world population is projected to reach 8.34 billon, an increase of 52 percent over this year's population. During 1990 to 1995, population growth rates average 1.7 percent per year, and are projected to decline to 1.2 percent around 2010 and 1.0 percent by 2025. However, the number of persons added each year will still be growing between 1990 and 1995 and is projected to stabiize at juist below 90 miflion. Only after 2025 is the annual increase in population projected to start declining substantially (Figure 1). This combination of decining growth rates with steady increases in population is the result of past high fertility rates, which produced ever- larger cohorts that are now moving through the age-structure, replacing smaller cohorts born earlier. Even though the number of births worldwide is increasing well below overall growth rates, the population momentum built into the age structure will ensure high population growth for decades to come. In 1992, less developed countries (LDCs) comprise 77 percent of the population, while more developed countries (MDQ) cover the other 23 percent. Since annual growth rates are significantly higher in LDC, 2.0 percent compared to 0.6 percent for MDCs in 1992, the share of the world population from LDCs is projected to increase. By the beginning of the next century, it wil increase to 79 percent, and wil reach 83 percent by 2025. Long-run trends, up to 2150, are constructed by gradually bringing fertility and mortality in harmony, i.e., by setting fertility at a level where each woman replaces herself under projected mortality conditions, and by assuming net international migration to be zero. The result of these assumptions is that the population gradually becomes stationary, with a fixed age structure that is independent of its current age structure and a growth rate of zero. The "ultimate' size of such stationary populations is of interest because it demonstrates the momentum built into populations by current fertility and mortality conditions. The size of the stationary population of the world is projected as 12.2 billion, of which 88 percent would live in countries currently defined as less developed. INTRODUCTION IX Figure 1. Increase in Population Average annual increase (millions) By 5-year period By 2S ---= = MDC, 1990-91 1. - MDC, 1992-93 LDC, 1990-91 70a , LDC, 1992-93 3O 260 240 21'00 2140 2000 2040 2000 2120 2160 Year X INTRODUCTION How do the projections for the world and for LDCs and MDCs compare with those previously produced? Figure 2 compares this year's projections with the previous set (1990-91). For MDCs, there is no distinguishable difference between the projected populations. In the case of the LDCs projections, this year's projection is, from the early part of the 21st century onward, increasingly below the previous projection. This reflects the Impact of AIDS, which increases the number of deaths and reduces the number of births. For the world as a whole, the projections differ to the same extent as the LDC projections differ. When growth rates for major world regions are compared, striking differences become apparent. The continent with the highest growth rate is Africa with an annual rate of 2.9 percent in the early 1990s, about six times the 0.5 percent annual growth rate of Europe (which includes the former U.S.S.R. countries). Growth rates in the Americas, in Asia, and in Oceania are intermediate; at 1.5, 1.8, and 1.6 percent, respectively, they are close to the world's average. At these growth rates, the population of Africa would double in approximately 25 years, while Europe would double in 140 years. One of the consequences of such large differences In population growth rates is a changing distribution of the population over the continents. Currently, Asia has 59 percent of all people; Europe, 15 percent; America, 14 percent, Africa, 12 percent, and Oceania, 1 percent. Over time, Asia's share is projected to remain fairly stable, but Europe's share will almost be halved and Africa's share more than doubled. Figure 3 shows the distribution of the worid's population at three different points in time. Because Asia is so large and diverse, disaggregation of its populations by subregions is more illustrative of the differences in population growth rates. South Asia, which has 1.24 billion people (23 percent of the world population), has an estimated growth rate of 2.0 percent in 1992, while East and Southeast Asia, which include China and contains 1.85 billion people (34 percent of the world population), had a lower rate of 1.4 percent. South Asia is growing annually by 25 million, East and Southeast Asia by 27 million persons. By 2025, the growth rates are projected to decline to 1.1 percent and 0.9 percent, respectively. Even with these lower rates, 23 million people will be added in South Asia each year and 17 million in East and Southeast Asia because of their large projected base populations of 2.05 billion and 2.54 billion. Southwest Asia, which consists mostly of Middle Eastern countries, has a much smaller number of people, 143 million, but is growing at a faster rate than the other two regions, with a growth rate of 2.9 percent in 1992. It is projected to lower its growth rate to 1.6 percent by 2025, but will by then have more than doubled Its population to 293 million. In Africa, more homogeneity is found among the East, West, and North subregions. The fastest growing subregion is East Africa with a growth rate of 3.0 percent in 1992, followed by West Africa with a growth rate of 2.9 percent. North Africa, has begun to lower its growth rate but still has a growth rate of 2.5 percent, which is projected to diminish to 1.3 percent by 2025. Even though East Africa's growth rate is projected to start declining immediately, by 2025 it will still have a growth rate of 1.9 percent, and will add 14 million persons a year. In West Africa, the growth rate is projected to decrease to 1.7 percent in 2025, but will still be adding 9 million persons each year. These differences In growth rates are the outcome of assumed trends in fertility and mortality (discuss' 4 below). Oceania has a growth rate of 1.6 percent in 1992 and is projected to lower its rate to 0.6 percent by 2025. Because of Its small population (0.5 percent of the world's total) its impact on world demographic trends is triviaL INTRODUCTION Xl Figure 3. Percentage Distributiorn of World Population by Continent, 1990, 2025, and 2100 1990 4 l !p (1 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~137 2025 2100 O.(, Xli INTRODUCTION America is divided into two subregions, North America and Latin America and the Caribbean. In North America, the growth rate is relatively low, 0.9 percent in 1992, and is projected to decline to 0.3 percent by 2025, as net migration from Latin America is assumed to diminish. In Latin America and the Caribbean, the growth rate in 1992 was significantly higher, 1.8 percent, and is projected to decline to 0.9 percent by 2025. The lowest growth rate for any continent, .5 percent in 1992, is found in the region comprised of Europe and the former Soviet Republics. This rate is projected to decline further to .2 percent by 2025. Tables 1 and 2 summarize current and projected trends in population growth. Fertihy The total fertility rate (TFR) for the world is estimated to be 3.2 children per woman in 1992. The highest TFRs are found in East and West Africa, where the TFR is above 6. Most countries in the Asian and Latin American regions have moderate fertility of three to five children per woman, although both continents contain coun,.ries with very high and very low levels. MDCs have the lowest fertility, with rates generally ranging between 2.5 and 1.5, but one of the former Soviet Republics, Tajikistan, has a TFR of 5. World fertility is projected to decline from 3.2 now to 2.9 by the turn of the century and to 2.4 by 2025. These projected trends in fertility are determined from past trends and general assumptions as described in Data and Methods. For countries with high fertility, the trend is assumed to be downward, and substantial fertility decline is projected. Countries that have reached below replacement level fertility are assumed to gradually raise their TFRs to replacement. In East and West Africa, recent trends in fertility are downwards, but only slightly so. Between 1985 and 1992, the TFR has declined from 6.4 to 6.2 in these regions that together constitute Sub-Saharan Africa. Only a few countries have shown sustained decline in fertility, while the majority of countries have had persisted high fertility, with the highest TFRs at levels above 7 chi'- en per woman in such countries as Malawi, Niger, Rwanda, and Uganda. In some countries (such as Cameroon and Angola), fertility has been increasing as sterility rates declined. On the basis of these levels and trends, fertility decline is projected to be slow in the 1990s as well, with replacement fertility in most countries not reached until after 2040. North Africa, on the other hand, has had a substantial declne in the past decade, from 5.6 to 4.6 children per woman, and four out of the seven countries in this region are projected to achieve replacement fertility by 2020. In Asia, most countries have begun the transition from high to low fertility, with many declnes starting before and during the 1970s. In East and Southeast Asia, fertility has already reached a low level of 2.5 children per woman. South Asia, at 4.1 children per woman, has progressed less far in this process, and Southwest Asia has still further to go. However, each subregion of the Asian continent includes countries at different stages of the fertility transition; each subregion has at least one country with a TFR of 6 or greater and one country with replacement level fertility. The projections of when replacement fertility will be reached are determined by the trends in individual countries with the slowest decline; the Asian subregion aggregates will therefore be late in achieving this. On the American continent, fertility in all countries has dropped to below 6 children per woman, but some countries have gone much further than others. The TFR for Latin America is intermediate at 3.1, and replacement fertility is projected to be reached in every country no later than INTRODUCTION Xlil 2035. In Northern America, fertility is at 2 children per woman, i.e., just below replacement level. Europe (including the former U.S.S.R. republics) is the only continent where aggregate fertility is currently below replacement, Ie., where women are not having enough children to replace themselves. Recent trends in some countries of Europe show small increases in fertnity, and the projections assume that the TFR will recover to replacement level by 2030. Europe is also the continent with the most homogeneous fertility levels: with the exception of four of the former Soviet republics that have TFRs above 3, fertlUty in the other 41 countries varies in a narrow range between 1.5 and 2.8. Another measure sometimes used to examine fertility trends is the crude birth rate, a rate that is not adjusted for the age structure of the population. The 1992 crude birth rate for the world as a whole is 25.7 births per thousand population and is projected to decline to 22.2 by the turn of the century, and decline further to 17.8 by 2025. In MDCs, the 1992 crude birth rate is 14.3 while the rate in LDCS is 29.0. Crude birth rates are projected to decrease to 18.6 in LDCs and to 12.2 in MDCs by 2025. Mortiy Mortality levels in all continents have decreased in the past decade, continuing a long-term trend towards longer life. Life expectancy at birth, a measure constructed from current age-specific mortality rates applied to a cohort born this year, is estimated at 66 years for the world in 1992, with male levels at 64.5 years and female levels at 67.0 years. Life expectancy Is 12 years lower in LDCs than in MDCs. Projected mortality trends for individual countries are based on current levels and recent trends, with faster increases in life expectancy projected in countries with lower life expancies and those with rapid recent increases (see Data and Methods). Life expectancy is projected to reach 70 years for the world as a whole in approximately 2010. However, differences between regions are expected to remain important, and even increase in some cases. Sub-Saharan Africa is only projected to reach a life expectancy of 60 years by 2020, and South Asia is not projected to reach 70 years until approximately 2025. On the other hand, more developed regions, are projected to attain life expectancies of 80 years around 2015. On the African continent, the lowest regional lfe expectancies are found in East and West Africa where combined (male and female) life expectancy at birth is only 52 and 50 years, respectively. Since the 1970s, life expectancy in East and West Africa has increased by about 6 years. Further increases are expected because of continued progress in socioeconomic development and health interventions; however, in East Africa especially, overall life expectancy will increase only gradually because of increasing mortality from AIDS. In some countries where the HIV/AIDS epidemic has spread widely, such as Uganda, Malawi, and Zambia, projections indicate a reversal of recent gains in life expectancy (see Special Topic 1). North Africa has considerably better mortality conditions, with combined life expectancy of just over 60. South Asia has the worst mortality conditions of the Asian subregions, but improvement has been quite rapid since the mid 1970s, with life expectancy increasing from 49 to 59 years currently. Life expectancy in Southwest Asia is near the world's average, while East and Southeast Asia is well- above that at 70 years. East and Southeast Asia contains some of the countries (Japan, Hong Kong) with the highest measured life expectancies in the world. The American continent contains the Northern America region which has the highest aggregate life expectancy, 76.7. In Latin America and the Caribbean, life expectancy is slightly above the world's average. XIV INTRODUCilON The European region has the second highest aggregate life expectancy, 74.4. Every country in this region is above the world's average. Moving from west to east through this region, life expectancies tend to decline, from a high of 78 in Iceland to a low of 66 in Turkmenistan. Female life expectancy at birth is higher than male life expectancy at birth in al regions in the world, with the exception of the South Asia region, where males and females have the same life expectancy. In some countries in South Asia, such as Nepal and Bhutan, males have higher life expectancies. The largest gaps between males and females are found in some of the former Soviet republics, where females have an advantage of over 10 years (see Special Topic II). The variations in the sex difference in life expectancy can often be explained by different life styles, health conditions, and cultural practices. In South Asia, for example, preferential treatment of boys and high maternal mortality rates are important reasons for reduced female life expectancy, whereas alcohol abuse and smoking reduces male life expectancy in parts of Europe. Other indicators of mortality included in the detailed country projections are the infant mortality rate (IMR), the under-five mortality rate (qs), life expectancy at age 15, and the crude death rate (CDR). The first three are strongly correlated with life expectancy at birth; the CDR is affected by the age structure of a population and is therefore a much poorer indicator of mortality conditions. Table 3 summarizes vital rates for geographic regions for the current and two future periods. Migration At the regional level, international net migration has a trivial effect on population growth. The most significant flow occurs between Latin America and the Caribbean and Northern America, which amounts to just over one-half million persons per year. Migration often occurs for unpredictable reasons, and is often reversed in a short time period; the projections of future net migration assume a gradual decline to zero from current levels. Age Structure The age structure of a population gives information about the size of the school-age population, labor force size, and age-dependency, among others. It is also a very powerful indicator of future population growth potential. The percentage of the world's population under the age of fifteen is estimated to be 32 percent in 1992, or approximately one in three persons. This proportion is projected to decrease slightly to 31 percent by the turn of the century, and to decline further to 25 percent in 2025 as fertility rates decrease. The trend for the proportion of persons sixty-five years of age or older, on the other hand, is rising in all regions of the world as the result of lower fertility and lower mortality rates at older ages. This proportion is estimated to be 6 percent in 1992, and will increase to 7 percent by the year 2000, and to 10 percent by 2025. The distribution of persons by age is very different in LDCs and MDCs. In LDCs, 36 percent of the population is under the age of 15, whereas this is only 22 percent in MDCs. By 2025, however, these differences are projected to become smalier as fertility In LDCs is reduced further. At that time, the percentage of the population under the age of 15 is estimated to decline to 27 percent in LDCs and to 18 percent in MDCs. The proportion of persons aged 65 and over, on the other hand, will be rising, particularly in MDCs. The percentage of this age-group in 1992 in MDCs is estimated to be, 12 percent, is INTRODUCTON XV projected to rise to 14 percent by the year 2000, and rise to 20 percent by 2025. In LDCs, the proportion of the population aged 65 and over is only 4 percent in 1992, 5 percent in 2000, and 8 percent in 2025. The under age 15 and 65 years and over population as a ratio of those In the working ages between 15 and 65 years is called the dependency ratio. This measure indicates how many persons, on average, are dependent per 100 persons of working age. Table 4 shows these three broad age groups for the regions of the world. The dependency ratio is currently highest in Africa, at 92, and lowest in Europe, at 52. Over time, however, dependency in Africa will decrease as fertility declines, whereas it wil increase In Europe as the population grows older. World Bank Regions and Income Groups The World Bank divides borrower countries into six regions: Sub-Saharan Africa, East Asia and Pacific, South Asia, Europe and Central Asia, Middle East and North Africa, and Latin America and the Caribbean. Within regions, countries are grouped in two to six country departments. In addition, the Bank also assigns each country to one of four income groups. Box 1 shows the countries grouped by income, Box 2, by country department. This section will discuss the population growth, fertility and mortality rates of Bank regions, country departments, and income groups. The largest region is East Asia and Pacific which currently has 30 percent of the world's population. It is foUowed by South Asia with 21 percent, Africa with 10 percent, Europe and Central Asia with 9 percent, Latin America and the Caribbean with 8 percent, and Middle East and North Africa with 5 percent. Table 6 shows projections for the six regions and their departments. Figure 5 shows population growth rates for all Bank departments. As the Bank regions resemble geographic regions or subregions, the discussion will focus on Bank departments. The growth rates of the country departments reflect those of the regions as a whole, but there Is some variation. In Sub-Saharan Africa, the rates range from 3.2 percent to 2.8 percent, with the highest rates found in the Eastern African department and the lowest rates found in the Sahelian and Southern Afican departments. Another region that has similarly high growth rates is the Middle East and North Africa. The growth rate is higher in the Country Department II, 3.0 percent, which includes the Middle Eastern countries, than the Country Department I, of North African countries, 2.7 percent, where the fertility transition is funher along. More diversity is found among the Asian country departments. In South Asia, the growth rates for the three departments range from 2.0 percent to 2.6 percent. The growth rates of the three East Asian and Pacific Country Departments are lower and range from 1.9 percent to 1.4 percent. Latin America and the Caribbean region is similar to the East Asian and Pacific region in that growth rates are moderately high with a range from 2.1 percent to 1.4 percent, with the highest rates found in Country Departments I and IL The European and Central Asian country departments include Eastern European, Baltic countries, C.LS. countries, and a few Asian countries and have the lowest growth rates of any of the regions. Country Department I, which includes some Central Asian countries and some Eastern European countries, has a growth rate of 1.3 percent, and the other two departments made up of Eastern European and former Soviet republics have rates of only .4 percent and .8 percent. XVi INTRODUCTION Figure 4. World Bank Regions IBRD 24229 SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA WORLD BANK REGIONS © LAC (Including North America) © SOUTH ASIA ®!) EASTASIAAND PACIFIC (~) EUROPE and CENTRAL ASIA (i) NORTH AFRICA and MIDDLE EAST , ,m, OC=8ER1992l INTRODUCTION xvii Figure 5. Population Growth Rate, 1990-95, by Country Department Figure 6. Total Fertility Rate, 1990-95, toy Country Department 25 a_ Figure 7. Wie Exeancy at Birth, 1990-95, by Country Department .so 20 10 F 6 Al FA9o 7 ...~~~~~.*. . . . ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~~........!........~~~~........... ................. 4 h p ~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ *.~~~~~~~~~~~~~ .. . ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ...... INTRODUCIVIN xix (based on GNP per capita in 1990 U.S. dollarsi) ~~M~~~L* tncs £$*.MN~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~-$d~~~~~4~~~A9) ~ A*he 1etIn Aatt~and hw C* rfbe oihm~AI N.. teIenat ICot9 Re ep St. tCitta and ilevi~~. ..... . ...........ue...~.~.~.. ~~~~ortt4gSI~~or ............~uetoRio .. .................Dt*r orberl wJcu taan AMtr~~~a ~Ue~~Ite~~ it...e. ... .. ........... . . XX INTRODUCTION Bex 2 Countries and Economies Classified .... ... ... ........ ............ ,. ......... . 'td CntDaI A*rlc* Eastehfaa 4` *ttmert (Af2) Western Afrfca Dep4rtment (AV4) t~epartimpt ~AP.. . .... W Ghana Guinea-Bsa i~~r.oa UUrIt~~~~~~i$ . ~Liberf a Cm=g~ 5tcpte~s Rep. 0* ~1* SUd~ : SaO Tow an Prinefp .-.-C '.t' ............. e' - ' anda *. ' : ' . ......... ... , : - Sierra Leone ta)ie.ui~ Oe-arG ft.;nt (AF5) Southern Africa Department (AF6) OuThes Bu~~~~~~rkinas Paso Botswana Th ' Cp ed Lesotho Chad ~~~~~~Matawi South fltra en ninOen 4~a h ozambique aPer mw(R)Nl ambiba Angola .laurton,a .South Africa ,, v. .. - :Swazitand Comeros senegil Tanzania ... ~~~~~~~~fi-f. S. . . . .. .. - . . ::. 'Athnsa.::.-.- Rwb.~~~~~f Afric~~~~~am ri) Latin: : Ama.c s.M .h .ei~u :.la :i :orthern: :er:ca: ;: .t*~ :eS:tmf : f : ::: ~apaItflWht ::f:.:...:::III ::..nt'd) Country De::rtment t...: Perg toti~~~~~~~vh Chile Venezuela.Co$Ou*~~~~~~~~~ia ~Ecfuador ................inic Paraguay. ifl~~~ ~tWI4~ I! ~ ~ OA~ii~IC~h t~ ~ U'ruquay E~~ $4V#O? fluyana . ~~~~ ~ Nonborrotwera Canada Honduras Jaisica ~~~~~~~~Cuba N~~acse~w'at auadeLtwpe Nicaragua tt. ~~~~~itt ""nW NeGvias Martinique Panama St. Lucia. Ne~~~~~~~~~Mthertands Antillets $t~ inca~ an thOre,adjns .Other Latini Americ Couitry ~~~~vtmmnt US Surinaus ~~~Othfer'NorthernAmrc hhm~~~~~ Ye, ~~~~~*lN ~~~Uhited fttate fAlro *arbadom~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Vir~~:.Wgin Tsands. (U.S4 ~~outJ~~~~~~ i~~~~i~~~ teals.un . .. 6iwten~~~~~~~~~~~~< P~~~~akistani Nepal.Sri ~~~~~~~~~~~~Lanka INTRODUCTION XXi by World Bank Region and Country Department' t*o ;##S - ~~~~.......... ..................... * t a .n. .... dlmtr M , 't.s.t . Io t e -I . anborrowers (cant. ') Cuabodla P131 ~~~~~~~~~~~~Frernch Polyntesia Koran, Rep. of Indonesia ~~~~Guam L.a P.apLs's Vein.Rap~ Kiribati hon Kong ..alav a '.aj,.dijvu , ,,,,,,,,,,,, . Peoplej ' '':- P ' '.''N 1 i .Korea, D . Pe tes Rep. of '.' 'I-.IwInea i Sofplti':-. -.-'.'. " ,'.''lomon Isivids ltlacao ..ailand T,,...:1cronesIa, Fed. States "of *-''i 'Bdji,et- Ham -:. ; V . : -- .B . EVmnutu-:. - : New Caledonia *-e.stetni a E laa .- tc* S : - : New Zeatand other Nicronesfa *hina dwtorrowere ^ f>.S.fg-;. , other Polynesia ~~~~~~~~~ .. . . . . , . . .,. :..:. . . . . . . .. *n.:. :.: :;Qg ali : -. A.tai Sigapo 'yprus Czechoslovaka .t.l . . ........ Ruei tila Plan Niretand O0ther Europe Cb tr a.,.tmn i. .11?...... Noitorrow a ... - Slovenla 0< 0- S~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~m .- . B .if--'f.', i. 0Nrrs ct ..0X Arei A"-',tria( SpQfEfa a.S; k8 :- : 0 .Iain.::> ; : Matbaljan kuhn S~~~~~witzeln ~~BaIana~~ charnel Islands Uni~~Alhted Kingdomh cram.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~s .. .f.x . f ** B 2" E d..................................................................... . . f * t;ioldov; fa ,:dl&:t f g gE earmmny :-- t, .~~~~~~a fo.'t A;>?;fria ~:':-?:f ;~::::::lŽ K:Žy?:::?x :... -;- . BB.a 6 ....S}BfSfaW ........B x - ................ : j ''o'witEty a;p-artuentB I f Coutr Dearm t ii Wor?torr-w - . :*i .. . .. t--i A o. f Apeti ite S 199ip Liy Egyp Israel B a ?;; m,,,...,,.:.te..,,.. Ir' Ote Worth, .A't;.ti;' '. I As of Ap 1, 19StArabi xxii INTRODUC11ON Figure 6 compares TFRs for all countlry departments. For the Africa region, there is more variation in fertility among the departments than for population growth: TFRs range from 5.6 in the Southern Africa Department (AF6) to 6.9 in the Eastern Africa Department (AF2). In both the Middle East and North Africa and South Asia regions, the fertility rates are medium high -- at 5.5 to 3.7, they are below those of the Africa departments, but above those of all other departments. The departments in the East Asia and Pacific and Latin America and Caribbean regions have fertility rates that are medium-low: at 3.4 to 2.4 children per woman, they are less than 1.5 to 0.5 children above replacement fertility. Replacement fertility in most countries that constitute these departments is projected to be achieved in the next 10 to 20 years. The Europe and Central Asia departments are very close to replacement fertility, and some countries In this region have dipped below net reproduction rates of 1, which, if sustained, would lead to declining populations in the long run. Figure 7 compares life expectancies at birth across country departments, and presents an almost reversed ordering of the departments In Figure 6. For the departments of Sub-Saharan Africa, the combined male-female life expectancies are in just above 50 years, the exception being Sahelian Africa (AF5) with a life expectancy of 48 years. In South Asia, the life expectancies are slightly higher, ranging from 52 to 60 years. In the North Africa and Middle East, East Asia and Paciflc, and Latin America and Caribbean departments, the life expectancies are ail in the 60-70 years range. Four departments have life expectancies just above 70 years, two of which are in Europe and Central Asia (EC2 and EC3), one in Latin America and the Caribbean (LA4), and one in East Asia and Pacific (EA2). The income groups, of which there are four, are less distinct demographically than the regional grouping. The low-income group (per capita income in 1990 of $610 or less), contains 50 countries that are mostly from Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, Southeast Asia, with a few countries from Latin America. These countries comprise 58 percent of the world population and have the highest fertility and mortaUty rates. They include some of the largest countries such as China and India. The 57 lower-middle income countries (per capita income between $611 and $2400) have 11 percent of the world populadon, and include many countries from Latin America, some from all of the other developing areas, as well as some Eastern European countries. The upper-middle income countries (per capita income between $2400 and $7650) have only have 10 percent of the world population. Most of the 33 countries that make up this group are from Eastern European and Middle Eastern oil-producing countries. Population growth rates and fertility vary widely within this group, but life expectancies are considerably higher than for the lower-middle and lower income groups. The 42 high income countries have per capita income greater than $7650, and have 16 percent of the world's population. They are chiefly the more developed countries from North America and Europe and have the lowest fertility and mortality rates, with the exception of Kuwait which has a TFR of 3.4 children per woman. The difference in population growth between the low- and middle- income groups is not as large as may be expected. The reason for this is the inclusion of China and India, which both have moderate growth rates, in the low income group. As the ove. .' ?rowth rate is an average of country growth rates weighted by population size, China and India *epress the low-income growth rate. Without China and India, the low inoDme countries would have the highest growth rate (Z5 percent per year). Projections for these income groups do not take into account that some countries are likely to move from one income group to another over time. INTRODUCTION XXiii Some Country Results Individual country projections provide sharper contrasts than aggregate geographic, Bank region, or income group projections, which, by combining several countries, smooth unique patterns. In this section, results will be discussed for a few large countries, because of their importance in determining the world's demographic situation, and for several smaller countries with striking demographic features. The most populous country in the world is China with a population of 1.2 billion. Its population growth rate, 1.5 percent in the early 1990s, is low for a low-income country, and is due to the low level of fertiity that has been achieved over the last two decades. From 1970 to 1985, the T1FR declined from 5.8 to 2.5, where it has stalled in the past few years. At the same time, life expectar,cy increased from 61 to 70 years, well-above the current average of 59 years for other low- income countries. Because of its sizeable lead in population over the second largest country, and because of the momentum built into the age structure, China is projected the remain the most populous country until 2120. India, the second most populous country, has an estimated population of 883 million in 1992. Because of its higher TFR, it is growing faster than China -- 2.0 percent per year -- despite higher mortality. The population of India is projected to surpass the 1 billion mark in the year 2000, and to surpass China in total population by 2120. The United States is, following the breakup of the U.S.S.R., the third most populous country. Its demographic characteristics are those of a typical MDC, with below-replacement fertility, high life expectancy, and an age pyramid that appears increasingly rectangular. The U.S. is atypical in that its growth rate is relatively high as the result of net migration: 25 percent of the United States' annual growth of 0.9 percent is due to immigration. In absolute numbers, the U.S. is by far the largest recipient of immigrants, with an annual immigration surplus of about 600,000 during the early 1990s. AU of the regions have positive growth rates, but a few countries are in fact losing people. These countries are in one of two regions: in Latin America and the Caribbean, where several small island countries (Dominica, Grenada, St. Kitts and Nevis) have recently had negative growth rates, and in Europe (Bulgaria, Hungary, and Ireland). In the case of the Caribbean islands, the cause of population decline Is outmigration, whereas in Eastern Europe it results from a combination of below replacement fertility and outmigration. By 2025, a dozen countries in the MDC group are projected to have declining populations, including several large countries (Japan, Germany, and Italy). Even though fertility is assumed to recover to replacement by 2030, the effect of "negative momentum' built into the age structures of these countries is to maintain negative growth rates for several decades. The highest growth rates are found in countries which have a large number of immigrants relative to their existing populations. The highest annual growth rates In the early 1990s are for Israel (4.8 percent), Jordan (4.8 percent), Oman (4.0 percent) and Saudi Arabia (3.7 percent). However, some other countries attain comparable growth rates through the excess of births over deaths without immigration: Rwanda (3.9 percent), Kenya (3.5 percent) and Swaziland (3.5 percent). The lowest TFR in the early 1990s is in Italy (1.32 children per woman). Several other Mediterranean countries are similarly low: Spain (1.46), Greece (1.52), and Portugal (1.57). While these countries once lagged the rest of Europe in the fertility transition, they have continued fertility decline to below levels observed in the countries of Northern and Western Europe, some of which (Sweden, Denmark) have had recent slight increases in their TPR. XXIV IWTODUCTION Six African countries and one country in Asia have TFRs of 7 chidren or more per woman. The highest is Rwanda (8.3), followed by Yemen (7.7), Malawi (7.6), and Ethiopia (7.5). CountrIes with such high fertility are expected to eventually follow the pattern of countries such as Kenya and Zimbabwe, which previously had very high fertility and have started the transition from high to low fertiity in the 1980s. But some countries with medium.high and high fertility (Mozambique, Tanzania, Niger, among others) are experiencing Increases In the TFR as a result of declining prevalence of some sexually transmitted diseases (STDs). STDs cause secondaqy infertility, which depresses the number of children born to women. Ufe expectancy is highest in Japan (79 years, average of male and female life expectancies). This is just more than twice the life expectancy of Ouinea-Bissau, which, with 39 years, has the lowest life expectancy of all countries in the world. Age-specific mortality rates, the components from which life expectancy is constructed, show even greater disparities: an infant in Japan has a chance of 5 per 1000 of dying in its flrst year, whereas this is 30 times higher in Guinea-Bissau. In several Sub- Saharan countries, the probability that a child will not live to age S is one in four, in the countries with the best mortality conditions, this is only one in 150 children. The following set of tables provides additional detail of current estimates and projections of population growth and vital rates. Tables 1 to S show demographic indicators for the world, less devloped and more developed regions, and geographic regions. Tables 6 to 9 show indicators for the Bank's regions and countly departments. Tables 10 to 15 show summary demographic indicators extracted from the main tables to facilitate comparisons among countries. Table 16 shows the populations of small countries that constitute the "other groupings. INTRODUCTION XXV Table 1. Population and Percentage Distrbudon by Geographic Region, 1985-2100 Population (millions) Percentage of world population Regfon 1985 1990 2000 2025 2050 2100 1985 1990 2000 2025 2050 2100 World 4827 5268 6168 8345 10055 11652 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Less Developed (a) 3650 4053 4886 6944 8623 10200 75.6 76.9 79.2 83.2 85.8 87.5 More Developed (a) 1177 1214 1282 1401 1433 1452 24.4 23.1 20.8 16.8 14.2 12.5 Africa 542 627 831 1467 2079 2784 11.2 11.9 13.5 17.6 20.7 23.9 East Africa 233 272 367 684 1006 1399 4.8 5.2 6.0 8.2 10.0 12.0 West Afreca 185 215 287 515 730 978 3.8 4.1 4.7 6.2 7.3 8.4 North Africa 124 140 177 268 343 408 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.2 3.4 3.5 America 667 721 830 1061 1201 1285 13.8 13.7 13.5 12.7 11.9 11.0 Latin America and Carib. 399 441 524 709 839 916 8.3 8.4 8.5 8.5 8.3 7.9 Northern America 268 280 306 352 362 369 5.6 5.3 5.0 4.2 3.6 3.2 Asia 2823 3103 3650 4885 5811 6596 58.5 58.9 59.2 58.5 57.8 56.6 East and Southeast Asia 1653 1788 2044 2546 2840 3013 34.2 33.9 33.1 30.5 28.2 25.9 South Asia 1055 1182 1432 2046 2570 3076 21.9 22.4 23.2 24.5 25.6 26.4 Southwest Asia 115 133 174 293 401 507 2.4 2.5 2.8 3.5 4.0 4.4 Europe and former U.S.S.R. 770 790 825 894 922 941 15.9 15.0 13.4 10.7 9.2 8.1 Oceania 25 27 31 39 43 45 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 a. "More developed comprises Europe, the former U.S.S.R.. Northern America (the United States and Canada), Australia, Now Zealand, and Japan. "Loss devoloped" comprises the rost of the world. Table 2. Annual Population Increase and Growth Rate by Geographkc Regon, 1985.2100 Annual population Increase (milifons) Annual growth rate (percent) 1985-90 1990-95 2000-05 2025-50 2050-75 2075-2100 1985-90 1990-95 2000-05 2025-50 2050-75 2075-2100 World 88.2 90.6 88.8 68.4 41.5 22.4 1.75 1.65 1.39 0.75 0.39 0.20 Less Developed (a) 80.6 83.6 82.7 67.1 41.3 21.8 2.10 1.96 1.62 0.87 0.45 0.22 More Developed (a) 7.4 7.0 6.1 1.3 0.2 0.6 0.62 0.57 0.47 0.09 0.01 0.04 Africa 17.0 19.3 23.5 24.5 18.4 9.8 2.93 2.87 2.64 1.39 0.80 0.37 East Africa 7.8 8.9 11.2 12.9 10.2 5.6 3.09 3.04 2.83 1.55 0.90 0.42 West Africa 6.0 6.7 8.5 8.6 6.9 3.4 2.95 2.91 2.77 1.39 0.80 0.37 North Africa 3.3 3.7 3.8 3.0 1.8 0.8 2.53 2.45 2.02 0.99 0.49 0.20 America 10.7 11.2 9.9 5.6 2.4 1.0 1.54 1.49 1.16 0.49 0.19 0.08 Latin America and Carib. 8.3 8.5 7.7 5.2 2.2 0.9 1.97 1.84 1.42 0.67 0.25 0.10 Northern America 2.4 2.7 2.2 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.89 0.94 0.70 0.12 0.04 0.03 Asia 56.0 56.0 51.7 37.1 20.3 11.1 1.89 1.73 1.37 0.69 0.33 0.17 East and Southeast Asia 27.0 26.8 22.1 11.8 4.4 2.5 1.57 1.44 1.05 0.44 0.15 0.08 South Asia 25.4 25.2 25.1 21.0 13.0 7.3 2.27 2.02 1.68 0.91 0.47 0.24 Southwest Asia 3.4 4.1 4.5 4.3 2.9 1.3 2.78 2.87 2.41 1.26 0.67 0.27 Europe and former U.S.S.R. 4.1 3.6 3.4 1.1 0.3 0.4 0.53 0.45 0.41 0.12 0.03 0.05 Oceania 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.64 1.57 1.19 0.39 0.14 0.08 a. "More devoloped cofprises Europe, the former U.S.S.R., Northern America (the United States and Canada), Australia, New Zealand, and Japan. "Less developed" comprises the rest of the world. -~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~- 0 a Table 3. Fertility and Mortality Rates by Geographic Rein 1990-95, 200-5 and CW3 0 1990-95 2000-05 2025-30 Region CBR TFR CDR e(O) IMN CBR TFR CDR e(O) INR CBR TFR CDR e(O) INR World 25.7 3.23 9.2 66.0 63 22.2 2.87 8.2 68.5 50 17.2 2.36 7.7 74.0 24 Less Developed (a) 29.0 3.59 9.2 63.2 70 24.5 3.07 8.1 66.1 56 18.2 2.41 7.3 72.5 27 Nore Developed (a) 14.3 1.95 9.1 75.5 12 13.2 1.96 8.8 77.8 9 12.2 2.06 10.0 81.6 4 Africa 42.5 5.85 13.8 53.6 98 38.3 5.11 11.9 56.0 80 25.2 2.97 7.9 64.0 50 East Africa 45.2 6.30 14.8 52.3 104 41.4 5.70 13.1 53.7 87 27.5 3.27 8.3 62.2 55 West Africa 44.4 6.16 15.2 50.5 104 40.5 5.38 12.8 53.6 83 25.5 2.92 8.3 62.2 53 North Africa 34.3 4.55 9.6 60.8 70 28.0 3.54 7.8 64.6 51 18.8 2.31 6.4 72.1 22 America 21.9 2.70 7.3 71.6 36 17.8 2.29 6.5 74.2 25 14.2 2.08 7.3 79.1 7 Latin Aerica and Carib. 26.0 3.12 6.6 68.4 46 20.4 2.42 5.8 71.6 32 15.1 2.09 6.4 77.5 8 Uorthem America 15.4 1.99 8.3 76.7 9 13.4 2.01 7.9 78.8 7 12.3 2.06 9.1 82.3 3 Asia 25.9 3.16 8.5 65.1 63 21.3 2.69 7.5 68.2 48 16.4 2.25 7.4 74.7 18 East and Southeast Asia 21.6 2.49 7.0 69.5 34 17.3 2.18 6.7 72.2 23 14.1 2.09 7.6 78.0 8 South Asia 31.1 4.13 10.7 58.7 93 25.8 3.26 8.9 62.5 71 18.5 2.37 7.4 70.8 28 Southwest Asia 35.4 4.75 7.9 65.3 62 30.4 4.01 6.3 68.8 46 20.8 2.60 5.3 74.9 19 Europe and former U.S.S.R. 14.4 1.99 9.8 74.4 15 13.4 1.98 9.3 76.9 11 12.4 2.06 10.0 81.0 4 oceania 19.3 2.45 7.8 72.9 24 17.1 2.31 7.4 74.9 16 13.9 2.10 8.1 79.1 12 Mote: Crude birth rates (CUR) and crude death rates (CDR) are per 1,000 population; total fertility rates (TFR) are per waimn 15-49 years of ge; life expectancies at birth, eCO), is given in years; and infant ortality rates (IMN) are per 1,000 live births. INTRODUCnON XXVII Table 4. Poplation (mWioei) 4ge 0-14, 15-6, and 65 and over by Geographic Region Year nd Less Nors Europe, Oceania Age group World deveoped developed Africa Amercs Asia former USSR 1990 0-14 1708 1446 261 282 219 1026 173 7 15-64 3231 2427 804 326 448 1922 519 17 65+ 329 180 149 19 54 155 98 2 2000 0-14 1913 1653 260 365 232 1139 170 8 15-64 3830 2989 841 441 533 2299 537 20 65. 425 243 182 25 65 212 119 3 2025 0-14 2097 1841 256 516 230 1176 166 8 15-64 5405 4546 859 894 692 3243 551 25 65. 844 557 287 56 139 466 177 6 Note: "Nore developed compris Europe, the forwer U.S.S.R., Northern Americo (the United States an Caned.), Australio, New Zealand, and Japan. Less developed& comprises the rest of the world. Table S. Long-n and Sadury Populadon, Momna Doubling Year, and Year when Net Rewoacdon vwachd I by Geogaphik Re*n Population (millions) Statfonary Year populatfon when over popula- Statio- 1990 Populoaton tion 1990 2050 2100 nary population momentum doubtles NRR1 World 5268 10055 11652 12186 2.3 1.4 2059 2060 Less Doveloped (a) 4053 8623 10200 10715 2.6 1.5 2040 2060 Nore Developed (a) 1214 1433 1452 1471 1.2 1.1 (b) 2030 Afrfei 627 2079 2784 3028 4.8 1.5 2017 2055 Eat Africe 272 1006 1399 1498 5.5 1.5 2015 2055 gest Afriea 215 730 978 1105 5.1 1.5 2016 2055 North Afrfca 140 343 408 425 3.0 1.6 2029 2050 America 721 1201 1285 1311 1.8 1.4 (b) 2035 Latfn Aerice and Carib. 441 839 916 938 2.1 1.5 2067 2035 Northern Aerica 280 362 369 373 1.3 1.1 (b) 2030 Asia 3103 5811 6596 6846 2.2 1.4 2068 2060 East nd Southeat Asia 1788 2840 3013 3086 1.7 1.4 (b) 2040 South Aefa 1182 2570 3076 3232 2.7 1.5 2040 2060 southwest Asia 133 401 S07 528 4.0 1.6 2019 2055 Europe and fonmr U.S.S.R. 790 922 941 955 1.2 1.1 (b) 2030 Ocean1i 27 43 45 46 1.7 1.3 (b) 2035 a. 'Nore d tloped comprises Europe, the former U.S.S.R., Northern America (the United States and Canade), Australia, New Zealand, wnd Japen. "Less d teloped comprises the rest of the world. b. Population will not double with projected rates. xKvill INTRODUCTnON Table 6. Population and Percentage Distibution by World Bank Region, County Department and Income Group, 1985-2100 Popilation (millions) Percentage of world population Region and Country Department 1985 1990 2000 2025 2050 2100 1985 1990 2000 2025 2050 2100 Africa Region 440 512 687 1254 1810 2472 9.1 9.7 11.1 15.0 18.0 21.2 1 Occidental ard Central 38 45 60 110 156 208 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.8 2 Eastern 107 126 173 340 515 733 2.2 2.4 2.8 4.1 5.1 6.3 3 South-Central and Indian Ocean 62 73 98 181 260 356 1.3 1.4 1.6 2.2 2.6 3.1 4 Western 103 119 158 268 362 465 2.1 2.3 2.6 3.2 3.6 4.0 5 Sahelian 36 41 56 111 171 248 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.3 1.7 2.1 6 Southern 94 108 142 244 344 461 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.9 3.4 4.0 East Asia and Pacific Region 1488 1619 1868 2366 2669 2847 30.8 30.7 30.3 28.3 26.5 24.4 1 Southeast 270 299 356 480 567 622 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.3 2 China and Mongolia 1050 1136 1296 1601 1769 1860 21.8 21.6 21.0 19.2 17.6 16.0 3 Indonesia nd Pacific 168 184 216 285 333 364 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.1 South Asia Region 1009 1126 1353 1879 2281 2616 20.9 21.4 21.9 22.5 22.7 22.4 1 Other South 113 127 154 215 261 302 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 2 India 765 850 1006 1348 1599 1790 15.8 16.1 16.3 16.1 15.9 15.4 3 Southwest 130 150 193 316 421 523 2.7 2.8 3.1 3.8 4.2 4.5 Middle East and North Africa Region 207 240 319 567 834 1144 4.3 4.6 5.2 6.8 8.3 9.8 1 North Africa 55 63 82 127 165 195 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.7 2 Middle East 152 177 238 440 669 948 3.1 3.4 3.9 5.3 6.7 8.1 Europe and Central Asia Region 453 473 510 596 654 694 9.4 9.0 8.3 7.1 6.5 6.0 * Southern Europe 93 99 112 138 157 168 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.4 2 Other Europe 83 85 88 97 102 107 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.9 3 C.i.S. and Baltic Republics 278 289 310 361 395 419 5.8 5.5 5.0 4.3 3.9 3.6 LAC Region 388 429 511 694 823 900 8.0 8.1 8.3 8.3 8.2 7.7 1 Brazil, Peru, and Venezuela 172 192 229 308 360 391 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.4 2 CentraL America 104 115 140 199 242 267 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.3 3 Caribbean and other 54 59 70 94 112 124 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 4 Temperate 58 63 72 94 109 118 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 Income group Low 2743 3039 3642 5107 6268 7358 56.8 57.7 59.1 61.2 62.3 63.2 Lower-middle 520 576 695 999 1249 1462 10.8 10.9 11.3 12.0 12.4 12.5 Upper-middle 454 503 607 890 1155 1432 9.4 9.5 9.8 10.7 11.5 12.3 High 796 822 869 936 930 921 16.5 15.6 14.1 11.2 9.3 7.9 Nonreporting nonmenber 314 328 354 414 452 479 6.5 6.2 5.7 5.0 4.5 4.1 Note: Country Department names are suggestive of countries included, but not always exact. World Bank regions and country departments are defined in Box 2. Income groups are defined in Box 1. INTRODUCTION Xxix Table 7. Annual Population Increase and Growth Rate by World Bank Region, County Departnment; and Income Group, 1985-2100 Population tmillions) Average awnual growth rate Region and 1985- 1990- 2000- 2025- 2050- 2075- 1985- 1990- 2000- 2025- 2050- 2075- Country Department 1990 1995 2005 2050 2075 2100 1990 1995 2005 2050 2075 2100 Africa Region 14.3 16.5 20.6 22.2 17.2 9.3 3.02 2.98 2.79 1.47 0.85 0.39 1 Occidental and CentraL 1.3 1.5 1.9 1.8 1.4 0.7 3.23 3.06 2.87 1.39 0.81 0.34 2 Eastern 3.7 4.4 5.7 7.0 5.6 3.1 3.16 3.20 3.05 1.67 0.96 0.45 3 South-Central and Indian Ocean 2.1 2.4 3.0 3.2 2.5 1.4 3.12 3.09 2.84 1.46 0.86 0.40 4 Wstern 3.2 3.7 5.4 3.8 2.7 1.4 2.93 2.88 2.60 1.21 0.69 0.31 5 Sahelian 1.1 1.3 1.8 2.4 1.9 1.1 2.79 2.88 3.07 1.75 1.00 0.49 6 Southern 2.9 3.2 3.8 4.0 3.1 1.6 2.88 2.77 2.52 1.37 0.81 0.36 East Asia and Pacific Region 26.1 26.0 21.5 12.1 4.7 2.4 1.70 1.56 1.13 0.48 0.17 0.09 1 Southeast 5.7 5.8 5.3 3.5 1.5 0.7 2.06 1.89 1.47 0.67 0.26 0.11 2 China and Nongolia 17.2 16.9 13.3 6.7 2.3 1.3 1.57 1.4 1.00 0.40 0.13 0.07 3 Indonesia and Pacific 3.2 3.3 2.9 1.9 0.8 0.4 1.80 1.70 1.32 0.62 0.24 0.12 South Asia Region. 23.5 23.0 22.5 16.1 8.8 4.6 2.21 1.95 1.59 0.77 0.37 0.18 I Other South 2.7 2.7 2.7 1.8 1.0 0.6 2.26 2.05 1.69 0.77 0.37 0.22 2 India 16.9 16.1 15.0 10.0 5.1 2.6 2.09 1.81 1.44 0.68 0.31 0.15 3 Southwest 3.9 4.2 4.7 4.2 2.7 1.4 2.82 2.64 2.30 1.14 0.60 0.27 Middle East and North Africa Region 6.7 7.6 8.8 10.7 8.0 4.4 3.00 2.94 2.59 1.55 0.86 0.41 1 North Africa 1.6 1.8 1.9 1.5 0.9 0.3 2.64 2.69 2.17 1.05 0.50 0.18 2 Middle East 5.1 5.8 7.0 9.2 7.1 4.1 3.13 3.03 2.73 1.68 0.94 0.45 Europe and Central Asia Region 4.0 3.7 3.8 2.3 1.1 0.5 0.86 0.76 0.72 0.37 0.16 0.07 1 Southern Europe 1.3 1.3 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 1.33 1.26 1.03 0.50 0.19 0.08 2 Other Europe 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.45 0.36 0.44 0.22 0.10 0.07 3 C.I.S. and Baltic Republics 2.3 2.1 2.2 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.83 0.71 0.69 0.36 0.17 0.07 LAC Region 8.1 8.4 7.6 5.1 2.2 0.9 1.99 1.86 1.43 0.68 0.26 0.10 I Brazil, Peru, and Venezuela 3.9 3.9 3.3 2.1 0.9 0.4 2.15 1.92 1.39 0.63 0.24 0.10 2 Central America 2.2 2.5 2.4 1.7 0.7 0.3 2.05 2.08 1.64 0.79 0.29 0.10 3 Caribbean and other 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.2 1.85 1.73 1.40 0.69 0.28 0.13 4 Temperate 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1 1.58 1.43 1.18 0.60 0.24 0.09 Income group Low 59.2 60.7 59.5 46.4 28.3 15.2 2.05 1.90 1.57 0.82 0.43 0.21 Lower-middle 11.2 11.8 12.3 10.0 5.8 2.7 2.04 1.95 1.70 0.89 0.44 0.19 Upper-middle 9.7 10.1 10.6 10.6 7.1 4.0 2.04 1.96 1.67 1.05 0.57 0.29 High 5.2 5.1 3.8 -0.2 -0.5 0.2 0.64 0.61 0.44 -0.02 -0.06 0.02 Nonreporting nonmember 2.8 2.6 2.6 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.87 0.77 0.73 0.35 0.16 0.07 Note: World Bank regions nd country departments are defined in Box 2. Income groups are defined in Box 1. Table S. Fertility and Mortality Rates by World Bank Region, Country Department, and Income Group, 1985-90, 2000( 05, and 2025-30 x x 1990-95 2000-05 2025-30 Region and 0 Country Department COR TFR CDR e(O) INR CBR TFR CMR e(O) INR CBR TFR CDR e(O) IMR a 0 Africa Region 44.6 6.23 14.8 51.8 104 40.6 5.52 12.8 54.1 84 26.0 3.03 8.2 62.5 53 z0 1 Occidental and Central 43.7 6.26 13.9 53.2 100 40.6 5.53 12.2 54.8 79 24.9 2.87 7.7 63.6 47 2 Eastern 47.7 6.90 15.6 51.0 109 43.9 6.21 13.3 53.0 89 29.1 3.48 8.1 61.8 57 3 South-Central and Indian Ocean 46.4 6.50 15.5 50.4 104 41.8 5.80 13.4 52.4 82 26.3 3.05 8.4 61.4 51 4 Western 42.6 5.91 13.9 52.3 95 37.2 4.84 11.3 55.9 73 21.3 2.39 7.8 64.1 45 5 Sahelian 47.3 6.68 17.7 47.8 125 46.2 6.54 15.1 50.8 104 30.7 3.67 8.9 59.8 65 6 Southern 41.5 5.56 13.8 54.1 99 38.0 5.05 12.8 55.2 85 25.6 3.04 8.6 62.9 54 East Asia and Pacific Region 22.6 2.57 6.9 68.9 33 17.8 2.22 6.5 71.9 22 14.3 2.09 7.3 77.9 7 1 Southeast 26.1 3.08 7.2 66.0 41 20.9 2.49 6.2 69.5 27 15.5 2.11 6.5 76.1 11 2 China and Mongolia 21.1 2.38 6.6 70.6 27 16.5 2.11 6.4 73.3 18 13.8 2.08 7.5 78.9 5 3 Indonesia and Pacific 25.3 2.97 8.3 62.9 55 20.2 2.31 6.9 67.9 34 15.3 2.10 7.1 75.1 11 South Asia Region 30.5 4.03 10.8 58.4 93 25.1 3.15 9.0 62.3 72 17.4 2.22 7.7 70.4 31 1 Other South 34.0 4.46 13.4 52.2 104 28.1 3.32 11.1 55.9 81 18.3 2.26 8.6 65.6 46 2 India 28.4 3.74 10.2 59.8 88 22.9 2.88 8.5 63.9 65 16.3 2.12 7.7 71.9 22 3 Southwest 39.0 5.33 12.3 56.1 107 33.5 4.48 10.3 59.0 91 21.2 2.58 7.3 67.3 48 Middle East and No.Africa Region 37.9 5.20 8.5 63.1 69 32.4 4.34 6.6 67.1 51 23.5 2.94 4.9 74.2 16 1 North Africa 34.6 4.49 7.6 64.8 61 27.5 3.39 5.7 68.9 42 18.4 2.26 5.0 75.8 10 2 Niddle East 39.1 5.47 8.8 62.5 72 34.1 4.69 6.9 66.4 54 24.9 3.13 4.9 73.8 17 Europe and Centrat Asia Region 17.6 2.44 9.3 71.5 27 16.0 2.23 8.7 74.4 18 13.6 2.07 8.7 79.4 5 1 Southern Europe 21.7 2.77 8.6 69.3 46 18.2 2.35 7.8 72.2 31 14.5 2.08 7.7 77.9 6 2 Other Europe 14.9 2.09 10.2 71.8 17 14.6 2.07 9.7 74.0 12 13.0 2.08 9.8 79.4 5 3 C.I.S. and Baltic Repubtlics 17.0 2.42 9.3 72.2 20 15.6 2.23 8.7 75.3 14 13.5 2.07 8.7 80.0 5 LAC Region 26.2 3.15 6.6 68.2 47 20.5 2.43 5.7 71.4 33 15.2 2.09 6.3 77.4 8 1 Brazit, Peru, and Venezuela 26.0 3.12 6.8 67.1 53 19.7 2.34 5.7 71.0 36 14.9 2.08 6.6 77.3 8 2 Central America 28.6 3.40 5.6 69.3 41 22.3 2.56 4.8 72.3 28 15.6 2.08 5.4 78.1 6 3 Caribbean and other 26.4 3.07 7.0 66.7 54 21.7 2.52 6.5 69.0 41 15.7 2.14 6.7 75.4 15 4 Temperate 22.1 2.87 7.5 70.9 30 18.8 2.38 6.9 73.2 21 14.7 2.09 7.0 78.7 6 Income group Low 29.0 3.59 9.8 62.1 75 24.5 3.10 8.7 64.9 61 18.2 2.40 7.7 71.4 31 Lower-middle 28.2 3.57 8.2 65.8 53 24.4 3.03 7.2 68.5 40 17.8 2.32 6.5 74.6 19 Upper-middle 27.3 3.41 7.3 68.1 53 23.1 2.91 6.2 71.2 39 18.7 2.55 6.1 76.9 10 High 13.4 1.79 8.7 77.2 8 12.2 1.85 8.5 79.3 6 11.6 2.05 10.4 82.6 3 Nonreporting nonummber 17.3 2.37 8.9 72.3 20 15.7 2.20 8.3 75.4 14 13.5 2.07 8.6 80.1 5 INTRODUCTION XXXi Table 9. Long-run and Stationary Population, Momentum; Doubling Year, and Year when Net Reproduction reaches I by World Bank Region, County Department, and Income Group Population (millions) Stationary Year population when over popula- Statio- 1990 Population tion 1990 2050 2100 nary population momentun doubtles NRRu1 Africa Region 512 1810 2472 2634 5.1 1.5 2016 2055 1 Occidental and Central 45 156 208 219 4.9 1.6 2015 2045 2 Eastern 126 515 733 781 6.2 1.6 2013 2050 3 South-Central and Indian Ocean 73 260 356 379 5.2 1.5 2015 2055 4 Western 119 362 465 499 4.2 1.5 2017 2045 5 Sahelian 41 171 248 268 6.5 1.5 2013 2055 6 Southern 108 344 461 488 4.5 1.5 2018 2050 East Asia and Pacific Region 1619 2669 2847 2911 1.8 1.5 (a) 2040 1 Southeast 299 567 622 645 2.3 1.5 2067 2040 2 China and Mongolia 1136 1769 1860 1892 1.7 1.4 (a) 2015 3 Indonesia and Pacific 184 333 364 375 2.0 1.5 2110 2035 South Asia Region 1126 2281 2616 2726 2.4 1.4 2048 2050 1 Other South 127 261 302 319 2.5 1.5 2045 2030 2 India 850 1599 1790 1855 2.2 1.4 2067 2015 3 Southwest 150 421 523 553 3.7 1.5 2022 2050 Middle East and No.Africa Region 240 834 1144 1199 5.0 1.6 2017 2060 1 North Africa 63 165 195 201 3.2 1.6 2025 2050 2 Middle East 177 669 948 998 5.6 1.6 2016 2060 Europe and Central Asia Region 473 654 694 706 1.5 1.2 (a) 2030 1 Southern Europe 99 157 168 171 1.7 1.3 (a) 2030 2 Other Europe 85 102 107 108 1.3 1.1 (a) 2030 3 C.I.S. and Baltic Republics 289 395 419 426 1.5 1.2 (a) 2030 LAC Region 429 823 900 919 2.1 1.6 2062 2030 1 Brazil, Peru, and Venezuela 192 360 391 399 2.1 1.5 2081 2010 2 Central America 115 242 267 272 2.4 1.7 2041 2025 3 Caribbean and other 59 112 124 128 2.2 1.6 2064 2030 4 Temperate 63 109 118 120 1.9 1.4 (a) 2030 Income group Low 3039 6268 7358 7765 2.6 1.4 2044 2055 Lower-middle 576 1249 1462 1510 2.6 1.6 2039 2055 Upper-middle 503 1155 1433 1496 3.0 1.4 2036 2060 High 822 930 921 929 1.1 1.1 (a) 2030 Monreporting nonmember 328 452 479 486 1.5 1.2 (a) 2030 Note: World Bank regions and country departments are defined in Box 2. Income groups are defined in Box 1. a. Population will not double with projected rates. XXXii INTRODUCTION Table 10. Estimates and Projections of Total Population for All Countries and Economies, 1985-2025 (thousands) Country, economy, or region 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 World 4827212 5267831 5720651 6167907 6611985 7049458 7483922 7918682 8345351 Africa 541962 627000 723683 831304 948632 1072278 1200257 1332335 1466678 East Africa 233001 271890 316564 367230 423099 483136 547163 614317 683620 Botswana 1070 1254 1438 1609 1790 1972 2142 2303 2461 Burundi 4696 5427 6350 7395 8526 9747 11090 12544 14051 Comoros 395 475 564 664 775 898 1029 1163 1293 Djibouti 354 427 500 583 674 769 868 967 1061 Ethiopia 43350 51180 60334 71476 84649 99648 116629 135523 155953 Kenya 20241 24160 28753 33962 39692 45799 52064 58239 64336 Lesotho 1545 1768 2023 2289 2569 2852 3133 3398 3635 Madagascar 9985 11673 13490 15410 17443 19565 21700 23781 25716 MaLawi 7188 8507 10055 11849 13837 16045 18518 21263 24233 Mauritius 1020 1074 1121 1171 1224 1276 1322 1362 1397 Mozambique 13791 15707 18140 21160 24691 28454 32513 36906 41562 Namibia 1518 1780 2069 2384 2722 3073 3418 3759 4080 Reunion 547 593 640 685 729 771 811 849 885 Rwanda 6102 7118 8663 10436 12343 14451 16846 19567 22558 Seychettes 65 68 71 75 79 83 88 92 97 Somatia 6686 7805 9058 10587 12365 14292 16367 18571 20849 South Africa 31569 35919 40336 44787 49153 53391 57465 61183 64765 SwaziLand 664 797 947 1115 1305 1511 1726 1938 2144 Tanzania 21161 24517 28519 33318 38711 44435 50523 56990 63746 Uganda 14134 16330 19248 22533 25869 29454 33314 37416 41615 Zaire 31700 37320 43454 50191 57596 65389 73429 81408 89205 Zambia 6753 8111 9510 11001 12578 14283 16094 17949 19763 Zimbabwe 8406 9805 11194 12448 13660 14840 15914 16964 18016 Other East Africa 61 73 87 102 120 139 159 180 200 West Africa 185408 214927 248674 287080 329757 374622 420334 467641 515197 North Africa 123553 140182 158445 176994 195776 214519 232760 250377 267861 ALgeria 21848 25056 28995 33135 37227 41209 44959 48411 51815 Egypt, Arab Rep. of 46511 52061 57396 62395 67418 72331 76895 81322 85640 Libya 3786 4546 5450 6492 7693 9052 10570 12236 14026 Morocco 22061 25091 28461 31823 35046 38209 41265 44129 46938 Sudan 21931 25188 29027 33141 37537 42086 46673 51095 55488 Tunisia 7261 8060 8910 9771 10585 11325 12053 12795 13523 Other North Africa 155 179 207 237 270 307 347 389 431 America 667381 720914 776830 829875 879231 926593 973651 1019274 1061325 Latin America and Caribbean 399445 440766 483233 524032 562470 600038 637907 674790 709350 Antigua and Barbuda 76 79 84 90 97 104 109 114 119 Argentina 30331 32293 34096 35820 37464 39095 40728 42296 43765 Bahamas, The 232 255 278 303 327 347 365 381 397 Barbados 253 257 263 270 276 281 286 292 298 Belize 166 188 215 245 275 303 329 354 379 Bolivia 6342 7171 8144 9145 10151 11133 12053 12888 13713 Brazil 135564 150368 164880 178267 190425 202340 214473 226218 236961 ChiLe 12121 13173 14137 14973 15763 16570 17383 18162 18867 Colombia 29481 32345 35074 37622 40186 42820 45391 47794 49982 Costa Rica 2489 2807 3106 3377 3623 3867 4117 4360 4583 Cuba 10098 10617 11099 11615 12064 12449 12800 13142 13461 Dominica 74 72 74 79 85 91 97 102 108 Dominican Rep. 6416 7074 7709 8293 8826 9355 9899 10437 10947 INTRODUCTION xxxiii Table 10. Total Population (continued) Country, economy, or region 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Ecuador 9205 10284 11425 12577 13674 14670 15642 16621 17570 EL Satvador 4767 5213 5703 6247 6816 7356 7846 8345 8883 Grenada 94 91 89 93 99 106 113 120 127 Guadeloupe 348 387 403 417 431 447 466 486 504 Guatemata 7963 9197 10622 12148 13757 15367 16959 18483 19889 Guyana 790 798 818 837 863 901 951 1000 1045 Haiti 5889 6472 7156 7830 8482 9164 9876 10603 11337 Honduras 4383 5105 5921 6802 7722 8633 9530 10385 11172 Jamaica 2311 2420 2520 2591 2667 2756 286V 2974 3095 Martinique 341 360 380 399 414 427 440 453 466 Mexico 78524 86154 94820 103273 110986 118576 126470 134235 141586 Montserrat 12 12 12 12 12 13 14 14 15 Netherlands Antilles 182 189 201 215 228 240 250 260 269 Nicaragua 3272 3853 4505 5198 5922 6643 7361 8049 8680 Panama 2180 2418 2634 2826 3012 3205 3396 3578 3745 Paraguay 3693 4314 4989 5694 6432 7215 8041 8843 9588 Peru 19383 21663 24126 26526 28774 30770 32728 34726 36675 St. Kitts and Nevis 43 40 37 35 34 34 35 37 39 St. Lucia 137 150 162 176 190 202 215 228 241 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 102 107 114 121 129 138 146 154 162 Suriname 398 447 498 545 587 627 667 710 751 Trinidad and Tobago 1160 1236 1301 1364 1428 1499 1576 1653 1725 Uruguay 3008 3094 3177 3274 3390 3501 3603 3697 3788 Venezueta 17317 19738 22108 24358 26456 28367 30241 32124 33929 Virgin Islands (U.S.) 107 110 116 123 132 140 147 153 159 Other Latin America 194 214 234 253 270 287 302 316 329 Northern America 267936 280148 293597 305843 316761 326556 335745 344484 351975 Canada 25165 26522 27897 29158 30254 31189 32003 32738 33351 Puerto Rico 3377 3530 3650 3761 3859 3937 4001 4072 4151 United States of America 239279 249975 261923 272793 282513 291291 299600 307530 314329 Other Northern America 115 121 126 131 135 138 141 143 144 Asia 2822403 3102850 3384237 3652741 3912291 4162905 4408344 4653070 4891874 East and Southeast Asia 1651813 1787967 1922961 2046631 2158151 2260784 2360899 2459637 2553483 Brunei 219 256 297 337 374 406 433 458 483 Cambodia 7486 8469 9467 10254 10927 11605 12290 12997 13671 China (excLuding Taiwan) 1047983 1133698 1218135 1293548 1359574 1420311 1480374 1540268 1597165 Taiwan, China 19135 20313 21218 22062 22915 23740 24490 25135 25701 Hong Kong 5456 5806 6074 6297 6494 6656 6787 6888 6960 Indonesia 163036 178232 193824 208935 222951 236338 249575 262433 274628 Japan 120754 123519 125710 127591 129215 129996 129823 128954 127740 Korea, Oem. Peopte's Rep. of 19888 21576 23496 25363 27073 28581 29981 31351 32669 Korea, Rep. of 40806 42797 44746 46642 48460 50026 51346 52487 53526 Lao People's Dem. Rep. 3594 4186 4883 5660 6491 7394 8375 9403 10417 Macao 392 459 503 535 556 575 594 613 630 Malaysia 15682 17857 20134 22340 24429 26429 28300 30151 32001 Mongolia 1856 2124 2425 2735 3043 3338 3617 3874 4128 Hyanmar 37544 41609 46413 50946 55053 58609 62148 65892 69640 Philippines 54700 61480 67757 73703 79476 84899 90285 95694 100911 Singapore 2731 3003 3219 3370 3500 3618 3729 3831 3915 Thaitand 51683 55853 59818 63855 68048 72128 75930 79427 82685 Viet Nam 58868 66312 74329 81964 89085 95587 102137 108960 115696 XXXIV INTRODUCTION Table 10. Total Population (continued) Country, economy, or region 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 South Asia 1055231 1182312 1308211 1431722 1557371 1682379 1803830 1925280 2045815 Afghanistan 18087 20445 23436 26968 31221 36062 41246 46822 52759 Bangiadesh 95456 106656 117577 127M92 138586 148803 157999 166895 175624 Bhutan 1286 1433 1614 1821 2045 2268 2492 2712 2938 India 765147 849515 929921 1006114 1081237 1153367 1219866 1284486 1347589 Iran, Istamic Rep. of 46374 55779 66436 78264 91593 106929 124609 144534 166380 Matdives 182 214 253 296 342 391 443 494 546 Nepal 16682 18916 21495 24112 26785 29428 31993 34400 36553 Pakistan 96180 112351 129496 147290 165623 184166 203241 222099 239764 Sri Lanka 15837 17002 17985 18928 19938 20965 21942 22838 23663 Southwest Asia 115359 132571 153065 174389 196770 219742 243615 268153 292576 Bahrain 425 503 585 663 739 815 894 970 1037 Cyprus 666 702 731 758 786 814 842 867 888 Gaza Strip 517 588 684 789 909 1044 1191 1344 1499 Iraq 15898 18914 22410 26373 30660 35153 39699 44159 48368 Israet 4233 4659 5923 6425 6831 7211 7595 7978 8343 Jordan (East Bank) 2642 3098 3942 4615 5288 5926 6548 7153 7718 Kuwait 1712 2143 2235 2520 2782 3007 3190 3357 3501 Lebanon 2668 2681 2813 3013 3270 3510 3738 3974 4221 Owan 1242 1554 1901 2274 2680 3139 3641 4163 4672 Qatar 358 439 510 581 651 720 787 851 909 Saudf Arabia 12395 14870 17895 21335 25198 '294Q2 33927 38590 43176 Syrian Arab Rep. 10348 12360 14860 17675 20807 ;4184 27720 31266 34797 Turkey 50306 56098 62027 67704 72901 77507 82016 86610 91065 United Arab Emirates 1349 1592 1793 1980 2151 2315 2455 2565 2660 West Bank 930 1088 1289 1507 1734 1957 2174 2381 2572 Yemen, Rep. of 9670 11282 13465 16177 19383 23027 27197 31925 37152 Europe and C.I.S. 769742 790333 808216 825469 842364 857207 870514 882598 893937 Atbania 2962 3250 3516 3766 4000 4237 4475 4705 4917 Armenia 3198 3325 3445 3608 3781 3954 4120 4268 4404 Austria 7555 7712 7803 7840 7869 7862 7846 7827 7795 Azerbaijan 6669 7149 7540 7987 8425 8887 9359 9804 10213 Belarus 9975 10278 10545 10811 11066 11290 11502 11702 11904 Belgium 9858 9956 10085 10197 10279 10322 10333 10343 10358 Butgaria 8941 8823 8724 8661 8649 8636 8632 8631 8647 ChanneL IsLands 134 144 151 155 157 157 158 159 159 Czechoslovakia 15500 15662 15824 16058 16366 16655 16924 17174 17425 Croatia 4657 4712 4765 4822 4877 4919 4942 4954 4964 Dermiark 5114 5140 5187 5228 5250 5257 5257 5260 5261 Estonia 1532 1583 1633 1669 1705 1739 1769 1798 1825 Finland 4902 4986 5072 5144 5209 5260 5304 5342 5368 France 55170 56440 57655 58777 59831 60719 61396 61996 62540 Georgia 5299 5462 5616 5792 5962 6113 6256 6389 6521 Germany 77698 79484 80537 81126 81457 81253 80855 80380 79723 Greece 9934 10067 10168 10246 10323 10354 10328 10256 10175 Hungary 10657 10553 10291 10154 10069 10008 9952 9912 9881 Iceland 241 255 269 282 295 306 317 327 337 IreLand 3540 3503 3498 3528 3561 3633 3722 3824 3923 Italy 57141 57663 57943 57985 s7920 57600 s6960 56199 55436 Kazakhstan 15852 16746 17473 18332 19209 20154 21118 22004 22796 Kyrgyzstan 3996 4395 4757 5189 5626 6060 6470 6868 7263 Latvia 2621 2686 2765 2813 2861 2904 2944 2982 3017 INTRODUCTION )OWv Table 10. Total Population (continued) Country, economy, or region 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Lithuania 3578 3731 3901 4007 4110 4199 4280 4356 4427 Luxembourg 367 378 384 387 388 388 387 387 386 Malta 344 354 362 371 380 388 396 403 409 Motdova 4192 4367 4498 4640 4839 5105 5370 5593 5777 Netherlands 14492 14943 15433 15844 16105 16272 16392 16499 16583 Norway 4153 4242 4342 4434 4511 4573 4636 4703 4768 Potand 37203 38180 38973 39770 40693 41643 42542 43366 44144 Portugal 10157 10354 10552 10736 10906 11036 11120 11181 11241 Romania 22725 23199 23612 24115 24646 25136 25605 26073 26562 Russian Federation 143858 148255 151826 155240 158858 162214 165512 168473 171235 Stovenia 1925 1954 1981 2012 2045 2072 2089 2098 2103 Spain 38505 38959 39391 39764 40139 40366 40422 40401 40402 Sweden 8350 8559 8761 8924 9035 9097 9173 9266 9350 Switzerland 6470 6712 6880 7011 7095 7125 7142 7152 7148 Tajikistan 4580 5302 6046 6874 7718 8577 9412 10169 10903 Turkmenistan 3244 3669 4067 4479 4894 5308 5702 6082 6453 United Kingdom 56618 57395 58314 59101 59735 60274 60834 61481 62123 Ukraine 50917 51860 52854 53754 54614 55307 55988 56621 57306 Uzbekistan 18090 20532 22765 25224 27696 30147 32450 34682 36887 Yugoslavia 16567 17142 17730 18321 18908 19391 19805 20179 20543 Other Europe 260 271 282 293 303 312 320 328 334 Oceania 24629 26735 28919 30979 32876 34556 36041 37348 38581 Australia 15758 17085 18399 19587 20635 21503 22202 22760 23250 Fiji 700 744 782 813 842 874 909 947 984 French Polynesia 171 197 225 254 280 301 321 340 360 Guam 123 137 149 159 170 180 191 200 209 Kiribati 64 70 77 84 90 97 103 110 116 Micronesia, Fed. States of 91 103 117 132 149 165 180 194 208 New Caledonia 152 165 178 190 203 215 226 237 247 New Zeatand 3290 3405 3528 3655 3773 3878 3977 4073 4160 Papua New Guinea 3460 3915 4429 4937 5429 5905 6362 6788 7222 Solomon Islands 274 316 372 432 494 S53 611 667 719 Tonga 95 99 105 111 117 124 130 137 146 Vanuatu 131 151 177 205 234 263 292 320 348 Western Samoa 157 165 178 193 211 231 250 268 286 other Micronesia 85 97 110 122 135 147 157 168 179 other PolynesIa 79 85 94 103 114 123 131 140 149 xOO(VI INTRODUCTION Table It. Estinates and Projections of Population Growth Rate for AU Countries and Economies, 1985-90 to 2020-25 (percent per year) Country, economy, or region 1985-90 1990-95 1995-00 2000-05 2005-10 2010-15 2015-20 2020-25 World 1.76 1.66 1.51 1.40 1.29 1.23 1.13 1.05 Africa 2.92 2.87 2.77 2.64 2.45 2.25 2.07 1.89 East Africa 3.09 3.04 2.97 2.83 2.65 2.49 2.32 2.14 Botswana 3.17 2.74 2.25 2.13 1.94 1.65 1.45 1.33 Burundi 2.89 3.14 3.05 2.85 2.68 2.58 2.46 2.27 Comoros 3.69 3.43 3.26 3.09 2.95 2.72 2.45 2.12 Djibouti 3.75 3.16 3.07 2.90 2.64 2.42 2.16 1.86 Ethiopia 3.32 3.29 3.39 3.38 3.26 3.15 3.00 2.81 Kenya 3.54 3.48 3.33 3.12 2.86 2.56 2.24 1.99 Lesotho 2.70 2.69 2.47 2.31 2.09 1.88 1.62 1.35 Madagascar 3.12 2.89 2.66 2.48 2.30 2.07 1.83 1.56 talawi 3.37 3.34 3.28 3.10 2.96 2.87 2.76 2.61 Mauritius 1.03 0.86 0.87 0.89 0.83 0.71 0.60 0.51 Mozawbique 2.60 2.88 3.08 3.09 2.84 2.67 2.53 2.38 aNamibia 3.18 3.01 2.83 2.65 2.43 2.13 1.90 1.64 Reunion 1.6i 1.53 1.36 1.25 1.12 1.01 0.92 0.83 Rwanda 3.08 3.93 3.72 3.36 3.15 3.07 2.99 2.84 Seychelles 0.90 0.86 1.10 1.04 0.99 1.17 0.89 1.06 Somalia 3.09 2.98 3.12 3.10 2.90 2.71 2.53 2.31 South Africa 2.58 2.32 2.09 1.86 1.65 1.47 1.25 1.14 Swaziland 3.65 3.45 3.27 3.15 2.93 2.66 2.32 2.02 Tanzania 2.94 3.02 3.11 3.00 2.76 2.57 2.41 2.24 Uganda 2.89 3.29 3.15 2.76 2.60 2.46 2.32 2.13 Zaire 3.26 3.04 2.88 2.75 2.54 2.32 2.06 1.83 Zambia 3.66 3.18 2.91 2.68 2.54 2.39 2.18 1.93 Zimbabwe 3.08 2.65 2.12 1.86 1.66 1.40 1.28 1.20 Other East Africa 3.59 3.51 3.18 3.25 2.94 2.69 2.48 2.11 West Africa 2.97 2.91 2.85 2.75 2.54 2.29 2.07 1.85 Angola 2.69 2.84 3.10 3.14 2.88 2.69 2.54 2.36 Benin 3.18 2.97 2.72 2.46 2.28 2.04 1.74 1.60 Burkina Faso 2.69 2.79 2.91 2.84 2.67 2.51 2.33 2.12 Cameroon 2.88 2.87 2.90 2.91 2.67 2.36 2.03 1.83 Cape Verde 2.71 3.14 2.79 2.45 2.18 2.08 1.91 1.65 Central African Rep. 2.74 2.53 2.39 2.22 2.02 1.83 1.63 1.54 chad 2.48 2.56 2.77 2.81 2.58 2.40 2.22 2.00 Congo, Peoploes Rep. of the 3.22 3.23 3.23 3.22 3.01 2.82 2.63 2.39 Cote d'ivofre 3.98 3.54 3.28 3.06 2.81 2.53 2.25 1.95 Equatorial Guinea 2.23 2.22 2.31 2.24 2.05 1.86 1.67 1.54 Gabon 2.61 2.74 2.78 2.87 2.66 2.52 2.40 2.19 Gambia, The 3.14 2.89 2.77 2.76 2.70 2.54 2.39 2.22 Ghana 3.28 3.09 2.87 2.67 2.45 2.19 1.92 1.65 Guinea 2.73 2.70 2.85 2.98 2.87 2.62 2.42 2.25 Guinea-Bissau 2.02 1.91 2.01 2.04 2.06 1.93 1.77 1.61 Liberfa 3.05 3.01 2.84 2.68 2.47 2.23 1.91 1.73 Malf 2.71 2.87 3.11 3.17 3.03 2.90 2.75 2.58 Mauritanfa 2.60 2.69 2.90 3.09 3.07 2.90 2.76 2.59 Niger 3.11 3.12 3.30 3.48 3.42 3.22 3.06 2.92 Nigeria 2.91 2.87 2.75 2.58 2.31 2.01 1.89 1.69 Sao Tome and Principe 2.74 2.56 2.41 2.27 2.04 1.75 1.61 1.32 Senegal 2.93 3.04 3.13 3.02 2.80 2.61 2.43 2.21 Sierra Leone 2.48 2.46 2.61 2.76 2.74 2.56 2.40 2.24 Togo 3.60 3.33 3.06 2.84 2.66 2.44 2.15 1.90 Other West Africa 0.00 2.67 0.00 2.36 0.00 2.11 0.00 1.91 North Africa 2.53 2.45 2.21 2.02 1.83 1.63 1.46 1.35 Algeria 2.74 2.92 2.67 2.33 2.03 1.74 1.48 1.36 Egypt, Arab Rep. of 2.25 1.95 1.67 1.55 1.41 1.22 1.12 1.03 INTRODUCTION XXXVII Table 11. Population Growth Rate (continued) Country, economy, or region 1985-90 1990-95 1995-00 2000-05 2005-10 2010-15 2015-20 2020-25 Llbya 3.66 3.63 3.50 3.39 3.25 3.10 2.93 2.73 Morocco 2.57 2.52 2.23 1.93 1.73 1.54 1.34 1.23 Sudan 2.77 2.84 2.65 2.49 2.29 2.07 1.81 1.65 Tunisia 2.09 2.01 1.84 1.60 1.35 1.25 1.19 1.11 other North Africa 2.88 2.91 2.71 2.61 2.57 2.45 2.29 2.05 America 1.54 1.49 1.32 1.16 1.05 0.99 0.92 0.81 LatIn America and Caribbean 1.97 1.84 1.62 1.42 1.29 1.22 1.12 1.00 Antigua and Barbuda 0.77 1.23 1.38 1.50 1.39 0.94 0.90 0.86 Argentina 1.25 1.09 0.99 0.90 0.85 0.82 0.76 0.68 Bahamas, The 1.89 1.73 1.72 1.52 1.19 1.01 0.86 0.82 Barbados 0.31 0.46 0.53 0.44 0.36 0.35 0.42 0.41 Belize 2.49 2.68 2.61 2.31 1.94 1.65 1.46 1.36 Bolivia 2.46 2.54 2.32 2.09 1.85 1.59 1.34 1.24 Brazfl 2.07 1.84 1.56 1.32 1.21 1.16 1.07 0.93 Chile 1.66 1.41 1.15 1.03 1.00 0.96 0.88 0.76 Colombira 1.85 1.62 1.40 1.32 1.27 1.17 1.03 0.90 Costa Rica 2.40 2.02 1.67 1.41 1.30 1.25 1.15 1.00 Cuba 1.00 0.89 0.91 0.76 0.63 0.56 0.53 0.48 Dominica -0.55 0.55 1.31 1.46 1.36 1.28 1.01 1.14 Dominican Rep. 1.95 1.72 1.46 1.25 1.16 1.13 1.06 0.95 Ecuador 2.22 2.10 1.92 1.67 1.41 1.28 1.21 1.11 El Salvador 1.79 1.80 1.82 1.74 1.52 1.29 1.23 1.25 Grenada -0.65 -0.44 0.88 1.25 1.37 1.28 1.20 1.13 Guadeloupe 2.12 0.81 0.68 0.66 0.73 0.83 0.84 0.73 Guatemala 2.88 2.88 2.68 2.49 2.21 1.97 1.72 1.47 Guyana 0.20 0.50 0.46 0.61 0.86 1.08 1.00 0.88 Haiti 1.89 2.01 1.80 1.60 1.55 1.50 1.42 1.34 Honduras 3.05 2.97 2.77 2.54 2.23 1.98 1.72 1.46 Jamaica 0.92 0.81 0.56 0.58 0.66 0.74 0.78 0.80 Martinfque 1.08 1.08 0.98 0.74 0.62 0.60 0.58 0.57 Mexico 1.85 1.92 1.71 1.44 1.32 1.29 1.19 1.07 Nontserrat 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.60 1.48 0.00 1.38 Netherlands Antilles 0.75 1.23 1.35 1.17 1.03 0.82 0.78 0.68 Nicaragua 3.27 3.13 2.86 2.61 2.30 2.05 1.79 1.51 Panama P.07 1.71 1.41 1.27 1.24 1.16 1.04 0.91 Paraguay 3.11 2.91 2.64 2.44 2.30 2.17 1.90 1.62 Peru 2.22 2.15 1.90 1.63 1.34 1.23 1.19 1.09 St. Kitts and Nevis -1.45 -1.56 -1.11 -0.58 0.00 0.58 1.11 1.05 St. Lucia 1.81 1.54 1.66 1.53 1.22 1.25 1.17 1.11 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 0.96 1.27 1.19 1.28 1.35 1.13 1.07 1.01 Surfname 2.32 2.16 1.80 1.48 1.32 1.24 1.25 1.12 Trfnidad and Tobago 1.27 1.03 0.95 0.92 0.97 1.00 0.95 0.85 Uruguay 0.56 0.53 0.60 0.70 0.64 0.57 0.52 0.49 Venezuela 2.62 2.27 1.94 1.65 1.39 1.28 1.21 1.09 Virgin Islands (U.S.) 0.55 1.06 1.17 1.S1 1.18 0.98 0.80 0.77 Other Latin America 1.96 1.79 1.56 1.30 1.22 1.02 0.91 0.81 Northern America 0.89 0.94 0.82 0.70 0.61 0.56 0.51 0.43 Canada 1.05 1.01 0.88 0.74 0.61 0.52 0.45 0.37 Puerto Rico 0.89 0.67 0.60 0.51 0.40 0.32 0.35 0.38 United States of America 0.87 0.93 0.81 0.70 0.61 0.56 0.52 0.44 Other Northern America 1.02 0.81 0.78 0.60 0.44 0.43 0.28 0.14 Asia 1.89 1.74 1.53 1.37 1.24 1.15 1.08 1.00 East and Southeast Asfa 1.58 1.46 1.25 1.06 0.93 0.87 0.82 0.75 Brunei 3.12 2.97 2.53 2.08 1.64 1.29 1.12 1.06 Cawibodfa 2.47 2.23 1.60 1.27 1.20 1.15 1.12 1.01 China (excluding Taiwan) 1.57 1.44 1.20 1.00 0.87 0.83 0.79 0.73 xx0cviii INrRODUCTON Table 11. Populadon Growth Rate (continued) Country, economy, or region 1985-90 1990-9 199 I -00 2000-05 2005-10 2010-15 2015-20 2020-25 Taiwan, Chtna 1.19 0.87 0.78 0.76 0.71 0.62 0.52 0.45 Hong Kong 1.24 0.90 0.72 0.62 0.49 0.39 0.30 0.21 Indonesia 1.78 1.68 1.50 1.30 1.17 1.09 1.00 0.91 Japan 0.45 0.35 0.30 0.25 0.12 -0.03 -0.13 -0.19 Korea, Dem. People's Rep. of 1.63 1.70 1.53 1.30 1.08 0.96 0.89 0.82 Korea, Rep. of 0.95 0.89 0.83 0.76 0.64 0.52 0.44 0.39 Lao People's Dom. Rep. 3.05 3.08 2.95 2.74 2.61 2.49 2.32 2.05 Nacao 3.16 1.83 1.23 0.77 0.67 0.65 0.63 0.55 Malaysia 2.60 2.40 2.08 1.79 1.57 1.37 1.27 1.19 Mongolia 2.70 2.65 2.41 2.13 1.85 1.61 1.37 1.27 Myarnar 2.06 2.19 1.86 1.55 1.25 1.17 1.17 1.11 Philippfnes 2.34 1.94 1.68 1.51 1.32 1.23 1.16 1.06 Singapore 1.90 1.39 0.92 0.76 0.66 0.60 0.54 0.43 Thailand 1.55 1.37 1.31 1.27 1.16 1.03 0.90 0.80 Viet Nam 2.38 2.28 1.96 1.67 1.41 1.33 1.29 1.20 South Asia 2.27 2.02 1.80 1.68 1.54 1.39 1.30 1.21 Afghanistan 2.45 2.73 2.81 2.93 2.88 2.69 2.54 2.39 Bangladesh 2.22 1.95 1.69 1.60 1.42 1.20 1.10 1.02 Bhutan 2.16 2.38 2.41 2.32 2.07 1.88 1.69 1.60 India 2.09 1.81 1.58 1.44 1.29 1.12 1.03 0.96 Iran, Istamic Rep. of 3.69 3.50 3.28 3.15 3.10 3.06 2.97 2.82 Maldives 3.24 3.35 3.14 2.89 2.68 2.50 2.18 2.00 Nepal 2.51 2.56 2.30 2.10 1.88 1.67 1.45 1.21 Pakfstan 3.11 2.84 2.58 2.35 2.12 1.97 1.77 1.53 Sri Lanka 1.42 1.12 1.02 1.04 1.00 0.91 0.80 0.71 Southwest Asia 2.78 2.87 2.61 2.41 2.21 2.06 1.92 1.74 Bahrain 3.37 3.02 2.50 2.17 1.96 1.85 1.63 1.34 Cyprus 1.05 0.81 0.73 0.73 0.70 0.68 0.59 0.48 Gaza Strip 2.57 3.02 2.86 2.83 2.77 2.63 2.42 2.18 Iraq 3.47 3.39 3.26 3.01 2.74 2.43 2.13 1.82 Israel 1.92 4.80 1.63 1.23 1.08 1.04 0.98 0.89 Jordan (East Bank) 3.18 4.82 3.15 2.72 2.28 2.00 1.77 1.52 Kuwaft 4.49 0.84 2.40 1.98 1.56 1.18 1.02 0.84 Lebanon 0.10 0.96 1.37 1.64 1.42 1.26 1.22 1.21 Oman 4.48 4.03 3.58 3.29 3.16 2.97 2.68 2.31 Qatar 4.08 3.00 2.61 2.28 2.01 1.78 1.56 1.32 Saudi Arabia 3.64 3.70 3.52 3.33 3.09 2.86 2.58 2.25 Syran Arab Rep. 3.55 3.68 3.47 3.26 3.01 2.73 2.41 2.14 Turkey 2.18 2.01 1.75 1.48 1.23 1.13 1.09 1.00 United Arab Emirates 3.31 2.38 1.98 1.66 1.47 1.17 0.88 0.73 West Bank 3.14 3.39 3.13 2.81 2.42 2.10 1.82 1.54 Yemen, Rep. of 3.08 3.54 3.67 3.62 3.45 3.33 3.21 3.03 Europe and C.I.S. 0.53 0.45 0.42 0.41 0.35 0.31 0.28 0.26 Albanfa 1.86 1.57 1.37 1.21 1.15 1.09 1.00 0.88 Armenia 0.78 0.71 0.92 0.94 0.89 0.82 0.71 0.63 Austria 0.41 0.23 0.09 0.07 -0.02 -0.04 -0.05 -0.08 Azerbafjan 1.39 1.06 1.15 1.07 1.07 1.03 0.93 0.82 Belarus 0.60 0.51 0.50 0.47 0.40 0.37 0.34 0.34 Belgtua 0.20 0.26 0.22 0.16 0.08 0.02 0.02 0.03 Bulgaria -0.27 -0.23 -0.14 -0.03 -0.03 -0.01 -0.00 0.04 Channel Islands 1.44 0.95 0.52 0.26 0.00 0.13 0.13 0.00 Czechoslovakfa 0.21 0.21 0.29 0.38 0.35 0.32 0.29 0.29 Croatfa 0.23 0.22 0.24 0.23 0.17 0.09 0.05 0.04 Denmark 0.10 0.18 0.16 0.08 0.03 0.00 0.01 0.00 Estonia 0.65 0.62 0.44 0.43 0.39 0.34 0.33 0.30 Ffnland 0.34 0.34 0.28 0.25 0.19 0.17 0.14 0.10 France 0.46 0.43 0.39 0.36 0.29 0.22 0.19 0.17 INTRODUCTION )xxix Table 11. Population Growth Rate (continued) Country, economy, or region 1985-90 1990-95 1995-00 2000-05 2005-10 2010-15 2015-20 2020-25 Georgla 0.61 0.56 0.62 0.58 0.50 0.46 0.42 0.41 Germany 0.45 0.26 0.15 0.08 -0.05 -0.10 -0.12 -0.16 Greece 0.27 0.20 0.15 0.15 0.06 -0.05 -0.14 -0.16 Nungary -0.20 -0.50 -0.27 -0.17 -0.12 -0.11 -0.08 -0.06 Iceland 1.13 1.07 0.94 0.90 0.73 0.71 0.62 0.60 Ireland -0.21 -0.03 0.17 0.19 0.40 0.48 0.54 0.51 Italy 0.18 0.10 0.01 -0.02 -0.11 -0.22 -0.27 -0.27 Kazakhstan 1.10 0.85 0.96 0.93 0.96 0.93 0.82 0.71 Kyrgyzstan 1.90 1.58 1.74 1.62 1.49 1.31 1.19 1.12 Latvfi 0.49 0.58 0.34 0.34 0.30 0.27 0.26 0.23 Lithuanna 0.84 0.89 0.54 0.51 0.43 0.38 0.35 0.32 Luxembourg 0.59 0.31 0.16 0.05 0.00 -0.05 0.00 -0.05 Malta 0.57 0.45 0.49 0.48 0.42 0.41 0.35 0.30 Noldova 0.82 0.59 0.62 0.84 1.07 1.01 0.81 0.65 Netherlands 0.61 0.65 0.53 0.33 0.21 0.15 0.13 0.10 Norway 0.42 0.47 0.42 0.34 0.27 0.27 0.29 0.27 Poland 0.52 0.41 0.40 0.46 0.46 0.43 0.38 0.36 Portugal 0.38 0.38 0.35 0.31 0.24 0.15 0.11 0.11 Romania 0.41 0.35 0.42 0.44 0.39 0.37 0.36 0.37 Russian Federation 0.60 0.48 0.44 0.46 0.42 0.40 0.35 0.33 Slovenia 0.30 0.27 0.31 0.33 0.26 0.16 0.09 0.05 Spain 0.23 0.22 0.19 0.19 0.11 0.03 -0.01 0.00 Sweden 0.49 0.47 0.37 0.25 0.14 0.17 0.20 0.18 Swftzerland 0.73 0.49 0.38 0.24 0.08 0.05 0.03 -0.01 Tajikistan 2.93 2.63 2.57 2.32 2.11 1.86 1.55 1.39 Turkmenfstan 2.46 2.06 1.93 1.77 1.62 1.43 1.29 1.18 United Kingdom 0.27 0.32 0.27 0.21 0.18 0.18 0.21 0.21 Ukraine 0.37 0.38 0.34 0.32 0.25 0.24 0.22 0.24 Uzbekistan 2.53 2.06 2.05 1.87 1.70 1.47 1.33 1.23 Yugoslavia 0.68 0.67 0.66 0.63 0.50 0.42 0.37 0.36 Other Europe 0.83 0.00 0.77 0.67 0.59 0.51 0.49 0.36 Oceanfa 1.64 1.57 1.38 1.19 1.00 0.84 0.71 0.65 Australia 1.62 1.48 1.25 1.04 0.82 0.64 0.50 0.43 FIji 1.22 1.00 0.78 0.70 0.75 0.79 0.82 0.77 French Polynesia 2.83 2.66 2.42 1.95 1.45 1.29 1.15 1.14 Guam 2.16 1.68 1.30 1.34 1.14 1.19 0.92 0.88 KIrfbati 1.79 1.91 1.74 1.38 1.50 1.20 1.32 1.06 Micronesia, Fed. States of 2.48 2.55 2.41 2.42 2.04 1.74 1.50 1.39 New Caledonia 1.64 1.52 1.30 1.32 1.15 1.00 0.95 0.83 New Zealand 0.69 0.71 0.71 0.64 0.55 0.50 0.48 0.42 Papua New Guinea 2.47 2.47 2.17 1.90 1.68 1.49 1.30 1.24 Solomon Islands 2.85 3.26 2.99 2.68 2.26 1.99 1.75 1.50 Tonga 0.82 1.18 1.11 1.05 1.16 0.95 1.05 1.27 Vanuatu 2.84 3.18 2.94 2.65 2.34 2.09 1.83 1.68 Western Samoa 0.99 1.52 1.62 1.78 1.81 1.58 1.39 1.30 Other Micronesia 2.64 2.52 2.07 2.03 1.70 1.32 1.35 1.27 Other Polynesia 1.46 2.01 1.83 2.03 1.52 1.26 1.33 1.25 Xi INTRODUCTION Table 12. Etmates and Projecdons of Total Ferliy Rate (TFR) for All Countie and Economes, 1985-90 to 202530 Country, conomy, or region 1985-89 1990-94 1995-99 2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 2015-19 2020-24 2025-29 World 3.44 3.24 3.03 2.88 2.74 2.61 2.52 2.44 2.35 Africa 6.06 5.85 5.50 5.10 4.59 4.09 3.64 3.27 2.92 East Africa 6.41 6.30 6.07 5.70 5.17 4.64 4.14 3.69 3.27 Botsewna 5.30 4.33 3.35 2.92 2.54 2.22 2.10 2.09 2.08 Burundi 6.80 6.80 6.80 6.50 5.90 5.30 4.70 4.10 3.50 Comoros 7.00 6.70 6.10 5.50 4.90 4.30 3.70 3.13 2.65 Djibouti 6.60 6.60 6.30 5.70 5.10 4.50 3.90 3.30 2.91 Ethiopia 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.20 6.60 6.00 5.40 4.80 4.20 Kenya 6.70 6.43 5.86 5.28 4.68 4.08 3.48 3.02 2.61 Lesotho 5.80 5.50 4.90 4.30 3.70 3.17 2.72 2.34 2.20 Madagascar 6.46 6.16 5.56 4.96 4.36 3.76 3.24 2.79 2.40 Malawi 7.60 7.60 7.60 7.30 6.70 6.10 5.50 4.90 4.30 Mauritius 2.00 1.75 1.75 1.81 1.86 1.91 1.96 2.01 2.06 Mozambique 6.30 6.52 6.74 6.66 6.06 5.46 4.86 4.26 3.66 Namibia 6.09 5.79 5.19 4.59 3.99 3.39 2.97 2.59 2.27 Reunion 2.42 2.16 2.07 2.06 2.06 2.05 2.05 2.05 2.05 Rwanda 8.29 8.29 7.99 7.39 6.79 6.19 5.59 4.99 4.39 Seychelles 3.00 2.70 2.42 2.18 2.09 2.08 2.08 2.07 2.07 Somalia 6.77 6.77 6.77 6.47 5.87 5.27 4.67 4.07 3.47 South Africa 4.48 4.08 3.68 3.28 2.88 2.54 2.23 2.12 2.11 Swazfland 6.87 6.57 5.97 5.37 4.77 4.17 3.57 3.07 2.64 Tanzania 6.50 6.61 6.72 6.53 5.93 5.33 4.73 4.13 3.53 Uganda 7.30 7.30 7.00 6.40 5.80 5.20 4.60 4.00 3.40 Zaire 6.30 6.22 5.84 5.46 4.86 4.26 3.66 3.15 2.7n Zarbia 6.75 6.67 6.29 5.91 5.31 4.71 4.11 3.51 3.06 Ziffbabe 5.40 4.55 3.70 3.19 2.76 2.38 2.24 2.22 2.19 other East Africa 7.00 6.70 6.10 5.50 4.90 4.30 3.70 3.13 2.65 West Africa 6.28 6.14 5.76 5.33 4.76 4.16 3.65 3.19 2.79 Angola 6.39 6.56 6.72 6.59 5.99 5.39 4.79 4.19 3.59 Benin 6.50 6.20 5.60 5.00 4.40 3.80 3.20 2.88 2.59 Burkina Faso 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.20 5.60 5.00 4.40 3.80 3.20 Cameroon 5.90 5.85 5.50 5.14 4.54 3.94 3.34 2.93 2.57 Cape Verde 5.58 5.28 4.68 4.08 3.48 3.00 2.59 2.23 2.10 Central African Rep. 5.75 5.75 5.46 5.16 4.56 3.96 3.36 2.98 2.65 Chad 5.89 6.03 6.17 6.00 5.40 4.80 4.20 3.60 3.10 congo, People's Rep. of the 6.50 6.61 6.43 6.24 5.64 5.04 4.44 3.84 3.24 Cote d'fvoire 6.80 6.61 6.12 5.63 5.03 4.43 3.83 3.23 2.86 Equatorial Gufine 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.20 4.60 4.00 3.40 3.00 2.65 Gabon 5.50 5.92 6.03 6.15 5.55 4.95 4.35 3.75 3.15 Gaubia, The 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.20 5.60 5.00 4.40 3.80 Ghana 6.40 6.10 5.50 4.90 4.30 3.70 3.17 2.72 2.34 Guirna 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.20 5.60 5.00 4.40 3.80 Guinea-Bisaau 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 5.70 5.10 4.50 3.90 3.39 Liberia 6.50 6.20 5.60 5.00 4.40 3.80 3.20 2.85 2.54 Malf 7.00 7.06 7.11 6.87 6.27 5.67 5.07 4.47 3.87 Mauritania 6.80 6.80 6.80 6.80 6.50 5.90 5.30 4.70 4.10 Niger 7.10 7.18 7.27 7.35 7.05 6.45 5.85 5.25 4.65 Nigeria 6.10 5.86 5.31 4.77 4.17 3.57 3.24 2.89 2.57 Sao Tome and Prfncipe 5.25 4.95 4.35 3.75 3.15 2.78 2.45 2.16 2.06 Senegal 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.20 5.60 5.00 4.40 3.80 3.20 Sierra Leone 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.20 5.60 5.00 4.40 3.80 Togo 6.80 6.50 5.90 5.30 4.70 4.10 3.50 3.04 2.65 Other West Africa 2.99 2.71 2.4 2.23 2.14 2.12 2.09 2.07 2.05 North Africa 5.03 4.55 4.01 3.54 3.15 2.80 2.53 2.40 2.31 Algerfa 5.50 4.82 4.14 3.46 2.99 2.58 2.23 2.11 2.09 Egypt, Arab Rep. of 4.38 3.84 3.30 2.92 2.59 2.29 2.18 2.15 2.12 INTRODUCTION Xli Table 12. Total Fenhiyt Rate (continued) Country, economy, or region 1985.89 1990-94 1995-99 2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 2015-19 2020-24 2025-29 Libya 6.87 6.47 6.06 5.66 5.25 4.85 4.44 4.04 3.63 Morocco 4.84 4.30 3.75 3.21 2.84 2.52 2.23 2.12 2.10 Sudan 6.44 6.22 5.71 5.19 4.59 3.99 3.39 3.00 2.65 Tunfsfa 4.00 3.31 2.90 2.55 2.23 2.12 2.11 2.10 2.08 Other North Africa 6.50 6.50 5.99 5.48 4.97 4.46 3.95 3.44 2.99 America 2.82 2.70 2.49 2.29 2.19 2.15 2.12 2.10 2.08 Latin America and Caribbean 3.53 3.12 2.74 2.42 2.26 2.20 2.15 2.11 2.09 Antigua and Barbuda 1.90 1.90 1.90 1.93 1.95 1.98 2.01 2.03 2.06 Argentina 2.96 2.68 2.42 2.19 2.10 2.09 2.09 2.08 2.07 Bahamas, The 2.30 2.13 2.11 2.10 2.10 2.09 2.08 2.08 2.07 Barbados 1.80 1.80 1.80 1.84 1.89 1.93 1.97 2.01 2.05 Selize 5.00 4.50 4.00 3.50 3.01 2.58 2.22 2.08 2.07 Bolivia 5.00 4.70 4.10 3.50 3.03 2.62 2.26 2.14 2.11 Brazil 3.49 3.02 2.62 2.27 2.14 2.12 2.11 2.09 2.08 Chile 2.73 2.44 2.19 2.09 2.09 2.08 2.08 2.07 2.07 Colotiaa 2.90 2.55 2.24 2.13 2.12 2.11 2.10 2.09 2.08 Costa Rica 3.26 2.86 2.51 2.20 2.09 2.08 2.08 2.07 2.07 Cuba 1.90 1.90 1.90 1.93 1.96 1.98 2.01 2.04 2.06 Dominica 3.13 2.64 2.23 2.09 2.08 2.08 2.07 2.07 2.07 Dominican Rep. 3.50 3.03 2.63 2.28 2.15 2.13 2.11 2.10 2.08 Ecuador 4.10 3.50 3.03 2.62 2.26 2.13 2.12 2.10 2.09 Et Salvador 4.60 4.05 3.49 3.01 2.60 2.24 2.11 2.10 2.08 Grenada 3.28 2.88 2.53 2.21 2.10 2.09 2.09 2.08 2.07 Guadeloupe 2.60 2.22 2.09 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.07 2.07 2.06 Guatemala 5.60 5.30 4.70 4.10 3.50 3.01 2.58 2.22 2.09 Guyana 3.06 2.64 2.28 2.15 2.13 2.12 2.10 2.09 2.07 Haiti 4.99 4.68 4.37 4.05 3.71 3.37 3.03 2.77 2.52 Honduras 5.55 5.00 4.44 3.89 3.34 2.91 2.53 2.21 2.09 -amaSca 3.00 2.57 2.20 2.07 2.07 2.06 2.06 2.06 2.05 Martinique 2.14 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.07 2.07 2.07 2.07 2.06 Mexico 3.58 3.07 2.63 2.25 2.12 2.10 2.09 2.08 2.07 Montserrat 2.64 2.40 2.19 2.11 2.10 2.09 2.08 2.08 2.07 Netherlands Antilles 2.15 2.09 2.09 2.08 2.08 2.07 2.07 2.07 2.06 Nicaragua 5.50 5.20 4.60 4.00 3.40 2.95 2.55 2.21 2.09 Panama 3.14 2.65 2.24 2.10 2.09 2.09 2.08 2.08 2.07 Paraguay 4.80 4.50 4.20 3.90 3.60 3.30 2.88 2.52 2.20 Peru 4.06 3.58 3.08 2.65 2.28 2.15 2.13 2.11 2.09 St. Kitts and Nevis 2.80 2.49 2.22 2.12 2.11 2.10 2.09 2.08 2.07 St. Lucia 3.50 3.01 2.58 2.22 2.09 2.08 2.08 2.07 2.07 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 2.75 2.46 2.19 2.10 2.09 2.09 2.08 2.07 2.07 Suriname 3.68 3.22 2.84 2.51 2.21 2.10 2.09 2.08 2.07 Trinidad and Tobago 2.95 2.66 2.40 2.17 2.08 2.07 2.07 2.06 2.06 Uruguay 2.43 2.19 2.10 2.09 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.07 2.07 Venezuela 3.77 3.36 2.92 2.55 2.22 2.10 2.09 2.08 2.07 Virgin Islands (U.S.) 2.58 2.23 2.10 2.09 2.08 2.08 2.07 2.07 2.06 Other Latin America 3.02 2.61 2.25 2.13 2.12 2.12 2.11 2.11 2.10 Northern America 1.87 1.99 2.00 2.01 2.02 2.03 2.04 2.05 2.06 Canada 1.68 1.85 1.88 1.91 1.94 1.97 2.00 2.03 2.06 Puerto Rico 2.40 2.17 2.09 2.08 2.08 2.07 2.07 2.07 2.06 United States of America 1.88 2.00 2.01 2.02 2.03 2.04 2.05 2.06 2.06 Other Northern America 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.01 2.03 2.04 2.05 2.07 2.08 sia 3.48 3.16 2.87 2.69 2.54 2.41 2.34 2.29 2.25 East and Southeast Asia 2.72 2.49 2.29 2.17 2.12 2.10 2.10 2.09 2.08 Brunei 4.10 3.70 3.30 2.88 2.51 2.19 2.07 2.07 2.06 Cmbodia 4.70 4.40 3.80 3.27 2.81 2.41 2.27 2.23 2.18 China (excluding Taiwan) 2.58 2.37 2.18 2.11 2.10 2.10 2.09 2.08 2.08 xiii INTLoouarioN Table 12. Total Fenillty Rate (connued) Country, economy, or regfon 1985-89 1990-94 1995-99 2000-04 2005*09 2010-14 2015-19 2020-24 2025-29 Taiwan, China 1.95 1.75 1.75 1.80 1.86 1.91 1.95 2.00 2.05 Hong Kong 1.45 1.45 1.45 1.56 1.67 1.76 1.86 1.95 2.03 Indonesla 3.32 2.93 2.58 2.27 2.16 2.14 2.13 2.11 2.09 Japan 1.68 1.55 1.55 1.64 1.73 1.81 1.89 1.96 2.03 Korea, Dem. People's Rep. of 2.50 2.22 2.11 2.10 2.09 2.09 2.08 2.07 2.07 Korea, Rep. of 1.80 1.75 1.75 1.80 1.86 1.91 1.96 2.00 2.05 Lao People's Oem. Rep. 6.69 6.69 6.39 5.79 5.19 4.59 3.99 3.39 2.97 Macao 2.20 2.09 2.09 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.07 2.07 2.07 Malaysla 4.00 3.63 3.26 2.86 2.50 2.20 2.08 2.08 2.08 Mongolta 5.00 4.49 3.98 3.47 3.00 2.59 2.24 2.12 2.10 Myarmar 4.02 3.72 3.17 2.70 2.29 2.15 2.13 2.11 2.09 Philippines 3.94 3.31 2.91 2.55 2.24 2.13 2.11 2.10 2.09 Singapore 1.85 1.85 1.85 1.89 1.92 1.95 1.99 2.02 2.05 Thailand 2.60 2.25 2.13 2.11 2.10 2.10 2.09 2.08 2.08 Vfet Nam 4.15 3.57 3.06 2.62 2.25 2.12 2.10 2.09 2.08 South Asia 4.64 4.13 3.62 3.26 2.94 2.66 2.53 2.45 2.37 Afghanistan 6.90 6.90 6.90 6.90 6.60 6.00 5.40 4.80 4.20 Bangladesh 5.00 4.25 3.50 3.12 2.79 2.49 2.37 2.32 2.26 Bhutan 5.53 5.53 5.53 5.23 4.63 4.03 3.43 3.04 2.69 India 4.27 3.74 3.22 2.88 2.57 2.29 2.19 2.15 2.12 Iran, Islamic Rep. of 6.40 6.10 5.80 5.50 5.20 4.90 4.60 4.30 4.00 Maldives 6.50 5.97 5.43 4.90 4.36 3.83 3.29 2.88 2.52 Nepal 5.86 5.56 4.96 4.36 3.76 3.23 2.78 2.39 2.25 Pakistan 6.20 5.60 5.00 4.40 3.80 3.35 2.95 2.59 2.28 Sri Lanka 2.60 2.23 2.10 2.09 2.09 2.09 2.08 2.08 2.07 Southwest Asia 5.05 4.75 4.37 4.01 3.64 3.35 3.08 2.83 2.60 Bahrain 4.90 4.55 4.20 3.85 3.50 3.15 2.79 2.46 2.18 CYprus 2.35 2.16 2.09 2.09 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.07 Gaza Strip 6.76 6.46 5.86 5.26 4.66 4.06 3.46 2.98 2.57 Iraq 6.35 6.05 5.45 4.85 4.25 3.65 3.10 2.64 2.24 Israel 3.01 2.70 2.42 2.17 2.08 2.07 2.07 2.07 2.07 Jordan (East Bank) 5.82 5.22 4.61 4.01 3.40 2.94 2.55 2.20 2.08 Kuwait 3.86 3.11 2.75 2.44 2.16 2.06 2.05 2.05 2.05 Lebanon 3.79 3.49 3.19 2.83 2.51 2.23 2.12 2.11 2.09 cnan 7.17 6.87 6.27 5.67 5.07 4.47 3.87 3.27 2.86 Qatar 5.84 5.54 4.94 4.34 3.74 3.14 2.78 2.46 2.17 Saudf Arabia 7.17 6.87 6.27 5.67 5.07 4.47 3.87 3.27 2.86 Syrian Arab Rep. 6.66 6.36 5.76 5.16 4.56 3.96 3.36 2.92 2.54 Turkey 3.73 3.31 2.91 2.56 2.25 2.14 2.12 2.10 2.08 United Arab Emirates 4.82 4.37 3.91 3.46 2.97 2.56 2.21 2.08 2.07 West Bank 5.75 5.45 4.85 4.25 3.65 3.09 2.62 2.22 2.08 Yemen, Rep. of 7.71 7.71 7.71 7.41 6.81 6.21 5.61 5.01 4.41 Europe and C.I.S. 2.04 1.99 1.96 1.98 2.00 2.01 2.02 2.04 2.06 Albania 3.16 2.81 2.50 2.22 2.12 2.11 2.10 2.09 2.08 Armenia 2.57 2.23 2.10 2.09 2.09 2.08 2.08 2.07 2.07 Austrfa 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.60 1.70 1.79 1.88 1.96 2.04 Azerbaijan 2.90 2.54 2.21 2.10 2.09 2.09 2.08 2.07 2.07 Belarus 2.21 2.09 2.09 2.08 2.08 2.07 2.07 2.07 2.06 Belgfus 1.55 1.75 1.80 1.84 1.89 1.93 1.97 2.01 2.05 Bulgaria 1.96 1.96 1.96 1.98 2.00 2.02 2.04 2.05 2.07 Charnel Islands 1.65 1.65 1.65 1.72 1.79 1.86 1.92 1.98 2.04 Czechoslovakia 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.01 2.02 2.04 2.05 2.06 2.07 Croatia 1.85 1.85 1.85 1.89 1.93 1.96 2.00 2.04 2.07 Demrk 1.55 1.70 1.75 1.81 1.86 1.91 1.95 2.00 2.05 Estonfa 2.20 2.10 2.09 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.07 2.07 2.07 Finland 1.75 1.89 1.91 1.94 1.96 1.99 2.01 2.03 2.06 France 1.82 1.82 1.82 1.86 1.90 1.94 1.98 2.01 2.05 INTRODUCTION Xliii Table 12. Toald Ferllity Rate (continued) Country, economy, or region 1985-89 1990-94 1995-9 2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 2015-19 2020-24 2025-29 Georgio 2.17 2.11 2.10 2.09 2.08 2.08 2.07 2.07 2.06 Germany 1.50 1.60 1.67 1.74 1.81 1.87 1.93 1.99 2.05 Greece 1.52 1.52 1.52 1.62 1.72 1.81 1.89 1.97 2.05 Hungary 1.81 1.81 1.81 1.86 1.90 1.94 1.99 2.03 2.07 Iceland 2.05 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.07 2.07 Ireland 2.34 2.09 2.09 2.09 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 Italy 1.32 1.32 1.32 1.46 1.59 1.72 1.83 1.94 2.04 Kazakhstan 3.04 2.61 2.23 2.10 2.09 2.09 2.08 2.08 2.07 Kyrgyzstan 3.94 3.52 3.10 2.76 2.46 2.19 2.09 2.08 2.07 Latvia 2.03 2.03 2.03 2.04 2.04 2.05 2.05 2.06 2.06 Lithuania 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.01 2.02 2.03 2.04 2.05 2.06 Luxewbourg 1.45 1.75 1.80 1.84 1.89 1.93 1.97 2.01 2.05 Malta 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.09 2.09 2.09 Noldova 3.10 2.63 2.23 2.09 2.09 2.08 2.08 2.07 2.07 Netherlands 1.56 1.70 1.75 1.81 1.86 1.91 1.95 2.00 2.05 Norway 1.80 1.90 1.92 1.95 1.97 1.99 2.02 2.04 2.06 Poland 2.20 2.12 2.12 2.11 2.10 2.10 2.10 2.09 2.09 Portugal 1.57 1.57 1.57 1.66 1.74 1.82 1.90 1.98 2.05 Romania 2.31 2.15 2.13 2.12 2.11 2.11 2.10 2.09 2.09 Russian Federation 2.40 2.18 2.09 2.09 2.08 2.08 2.07 2.07 2.06 Slovenia 1.70 1.70 1.70 1.77 1.83 1.89 1.95 2.01 2.06 Spain 1.46 1.46 1.46 1.57 1.68 1.78 1.88 1.97 2.05 Sweden 1.90 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.07 2.07 Swftzerland 1.65 1.75 1.80 1.84 1.89 1.93 1.97 2.01 2.06 Tajikistan 5.10 4.80 4.20 3.60 3.07 2.61 2.22 2.09 2.07 Turkmenistan 4.35 3.79 3.23 2.85 2.51 2.22 2.11 2.09 2.08 United Kingdom 1.82 1.92 1.94 1.96 1.98 2.00 2.02 2.04 2.06 Ukraine 2.10 2.09 2.09 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.07 2.07 2.06 Uzbekistan 4.29 3.79 3.30 2.89 2.52 2.21 2.09 2.08 2.07 Yugoslavia 2.10 2.10 2.10 2.10 2.10 2.10 2.09 2.09 2.09 Other Europe 2.10 2.10 2.10 2.10 2.10 2.09 2.09 2.09 2.09 Oceania 2.46 2.45 2.37 2.31 2.25 2.18 2.11 2.09 2.10 Australfa 1.85 1.85 1.85 1.89 1.92 1.96 1.99 2.03 2.06 FiJi 3.25 2.87 2.53 2.23 2.12 2.11 2.10 2.10 2.09 French Polynesia 3.55 3.18 2.81 2.48 2.19 2.08 2.08 2.07 2.07 duam 2.90 2.53 2.20 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.07 2.07 2.07 Kiribati 4.40 4.05 3.70 3.35 2.95 2.60 2.29 2.17 2.14 Micronesia, Fed. States of 5.00 4.50 4.00 3.50 3.00 2.58 2.21 2.08 2.07 New Caledonia 3.12 2.65 2.25 2.11 2.10 2.09 2.09 2.08 2.07 New Zealand 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.01 2.02 2.03 2.04 2.05 2.07 Papua New Guinea 5.25 4.95 4.35 3.75 3.21 2.75 2.35 2.21 2.19 Solomon Islands 5.80 5.50 4.80 4.10 3.40 2.95 2.55 2.21 2.09 Tonga 4.24 3.78 3.31 2.89 2.52 2.20 2.09 2.08 2.08 Vanuatu 5.83 5.53 4.93 4.33 3.73 3.13 2.78 2.46 2.19 Western Samo 4.84 4.54 3.94 3.34 2.91 2.54 2.21 2.10 2.08 Other Micronesfa 4.50 4.00 3.49 3.00 2.58 2.22 2.09 2.08 2.08 Other Polynesia 4.00 3.50 3.00 2.58 2.22 2.09 2.08 2.08 2.07 XIIV INTRODUCiON Table 13. Estmata and Projectons of Life Expectanc at Birh for All Countis and Economies, 1985-90 to 2025-30, Males and Females Combined (yeas) Country, economy, or region 1985-89 1990-94 1995-99 2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 2015-19 2020-24 2025-29 World 64.9 66.1 67.3 68.6 69.6 70.6 71.7 72.9 74.1 Africa 52.8 S3.8 5S.1 56.3 57.7 59.2 60.8 62.4 64.2 East Africa 52.0 52.3 53.1 53.7 55.2 56.8 58.5 60.3 62.2 Botswana 66.7 67.8 69.1 70.0 70.9 71.9 72.9 73.9 75.0 Burundi 47.2 46.5 46.9 47.0 4.8 50.7 52.8 54.9 57.2 Comoros 54.0 56.1 58.3 60.6 62.3 64.0 65.8 67.7 69.6 DJibouti 47.0 49.4 51.8 53.7 55.3 57.0 58.8 60.6 62.5 Ethiopia 47.1 48.6 50.4 52.1 53.7 55.4 57.1 58.9 60.8 Kenya 58.5 59.2 59.7 59.9 61.4 62.9 64.5 66.2 68.0 Lesotho 55.1 56.8 58.8 60.8 62.1 63.4 64.9 66.3 67.9 Madagascar 50.3 51.4 52.9 54.5 55.9 57.5 59.1 60.8 62.5 Malawi 47.1 46.0 46.0 45.8 47.7 49.8 51.9 54.2 56.6 Mauritius 68.9 70.4 72.2 73.4 74.2 74.9 75.7 76.6 77.4 Mozambique 46.5 46.8 47.9 49.0 50.7 52.5 54.5 56.5 58.6 Namibia 56.2 58.4 60.2 61.6 62.9 64.4 65.8 67.4 69.0 Reunion 71.1 72.8 74.5 76.0 76.9 77.7 78.6 79.6 80.6 Rwanda 48.8 47.7 47.9 47.6 49.5 51.5 53.6 55.8 58.1 Seychelles 69.7 71.4 73.1 74.6 75.5 76.5 77.5 78.5 79.7 Somalia 47.3 48.8 50.5 52.3 53.9 55.6 57.3 59.1 61.0 South Africa 60.5 62.9 65.2 67.0 68.1 69.2 70.4 71.6 72.8 Swaziland 55.5 57.2 59.1 60.9 62.2 63.6 65.1 66.5 68.1 Tanzania 48.3 47.0 46.9 46.5 48.3 50.3 52.4 54.6 56.9 Uganda 48.3 46.0 45.3 44.1 46.1 48.2 50.4 52.7 55.3 Zaire 52.0 52.0 52.8 53.6 55.3 57.0 58.9 60.8 62.8 Zambia 52.7 47.8 47.3 46.1 48.1 50.3 52.5 55.0 57.7 Zimbabwe 62.3 59.9 59.6 59.6. 61.2 62.9 64.7 66.6 68.6 Other East Africa 54.0 56.2 58.5 60.8 62.5 64.2 66.0 67.8 69.7 West Africa 50.0 51.5 53.1 54.6 56.1 57.7 59.4 61.1 63.0 Angola 44.5 46.8 49.1 51.1 52.8 54.6 56.4 58.2 60.2 Benin 50.3 50.6 50.8 50.2 52.0 53.9 55.9 57.9 60.1 Burkina Faso 47.2 47.9 48.8 49.4 51.1 52.9 54.8 56.8 58.9 Cameroon 56.2 57.5 58.9 60.0 61.4 62.9 64.4 65.9 67.6 Cape Verde 66.0 66.7 67.4 67.9 68.9 70.0 71.2 72.4 73.6 Central African Rep. 49.9 49.0 49.2 49.2 51.0 52.9 54.9 57.0 59.3 Chad 45.5 48.1 50.8 53.3 54.9 56.5 58.2 60.0 61.8 Congo, People's Rep. of the 52.6 53.3 54.6 55.8 57.5 59.2 61.0 62.8 64.8 Cote d'ivoire 55.8 55.0 55.3 55.5 57.1 58.8 60.6 62.5 64.5 Equatorial Guinea 45.4 47.7 49.9 51.8 53.5 55.2 57.0 58.9 60.9 Gabon 52.4 54.0 55.9 57.7 59.2 60.8 62.3 64.0 65.7 Gamifa, The 43.4 44.8 46.2 47.6 49.3 51.1 53.0 54.9 56.9 Ghana 54.0 55.1 56.6 57.9 59.4 60.9 62.5 64.1 65.8 Guinea 42.5 43.9 45.5 47.2 48.8 50.6 52.4 54.3 56.3 Guinea-Bissau 39.0 38.7 39.2 39.3 41.1 43.0 45.1 47.2 49.5 Liberia 53.1 55.1 57.0 58.5 60.0 61.5 63.1 64.8 66.5 Malf 47.2 48.4 49.9 51.4 53.1 54.8 56.6 58.5 60.4 Mauritania 45.9 47.1 48.6 50.2 51.8 53.5 55.3 57.1 59.0 Niger 44.5 46.2 48.0 49.8 51.4 53.2 55.0 56.9 58.8 Nigeria 48.4 50.2 52.2 54.0 55.5 57.2 58.9 60.6 62.5 Sao Tome ard Principe 65.5 67.6 69.7 71.6 72.7 73.9 75.1 76.3 77.5 Senegal 46.6 47.7 49.1 50.4 52.0 53.7 55.5 57.4 59.4 Sierra Leone 40.9 42.8 44.8 46.6 48.3 50.1 51.9 53.9 55.9 Togo 53.0 54.1 55.4 56.5 58.0 59.6 61.3 63.0 64.8 Other West Africa 60.4 63.1 65.6 68.0 70.0 72.2 74.5 77.0 79.7 North Africa 59.0 60.8 62.7 64.6 66.0 67.4 68.9 70.5 72.1 Algeria 64.0 66.4 68.6 70.8 72.0 73.2 74.5 75.8 77.1 Egypt, Arab Rep. of 59.0 61.0 63.1 65.2 66.7 68.3 69.9 71.5 73.2 INTRODUCTION XIV Table 13. Lif Expectancy at Birth (continued) Country* econrmy, or region 1985-89 1990-94 1995-99 2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 2015-19 2020-24 2025-29 Llbya 60.8 63.5 66.0 68.4 69.7 71.0 72.4 73.8 75.3 Morocco 60.8 62.5 64.3 66.3 67.7 69.2 70.7 n.3 73.9 Sudan 49.7 50.8 52.1 53.3 54.9 56.6 58.3 60.1 62.0 Tunisia 65.7 67.4 69.2 70.9 72.1 73.3 74.6 75.9 77.3 Other North Afreca 47.5 49.5 51.7 54.1 55.9 57.9 59.9 61.9 64. America 70.3 71.6 72.9 74.2 75.1 76.0 77.0 78.0 79.1 Latfn America and Caribbean 66.8 68.4 70.0 71.6 72.7 73.8 75.0 76.2 77.5 Antigua and Barbuda 73.1 74.2 75.4 76.5 77.3 78.2 79.0 80.0 80.9 Arentina 70.6 71.7 72.9 74.2 75.1 76.1 77.2 78.3 79.4 Bahamas, The 67.9 69.6 71.3 73.0 74.0 75.1 76.2 77.4 78.6 Barbados 74.3 75.6 76.9 78.1 78.8 79.5 80.2 81.0 81.8 Belize 66.7 68.7 70.6 72.4 73.5 74.6 75.8 77.0 78.2 Bolivia 58.8 60.7 62.7 64.8 66.2 67.7 69.2 70.7 72.4 Brazil 64.9 67.1 69.1 71.1 72.2 73.4 74.7 75.9 77.3 Chite 71.5 n.3 73.3 74.4 75.3 76.3 77.3 78.4 79.6 Coloobfa 68.2 69.2 70.4 71.7 72.8 74.0 75.2 76.5 77.8 Costa Rica 74.6 75.5 76.4 77.4 78.2 78.9 79.8 80.6 81.5 Cuba 75.2 76.3 77.3 78.4 79.1 79.8 80.5 81.2 82.0 Domfnfea 74.1 75.4 76.7 77.9 78.6 79.4 80.2 81.0 81.8 Dominican Rep. 66.0 67.7 69.5 71.2 72.4 73.6 74.8 76.1 77.4 Ecuador 65.5 66.5 67.9 69.3 70.6 71.9 73.2 74.6 76.1 EL Salvador 62.2 64.5 66.8 69.0 70.3 71.6 n.9 74.3 75.8 Grenada 68.6 70.5 72.3 74.0 75.0 76.0 77.0 78.1 79.3 GuadeLoupe 73.5 75.0 76.4 77.6 78.4 79.1 79.9 80.8 81.6 GuatemaLa 62.0 63.9 65.8 67.8 69.1 70.5 71.9 73.4 74.9 GuYana 63.2 64.8 66.6 68.4 69.7 71.0 72.4 73.9 75.4 Haiti 54.0 54.6 54.2 53.2 55.0 56.8 58.7 60.7 62.9 onrduras 64.0 65.5 67.1 68.8 70.1 71.4 72.8 74.2 75.7 Jaafea 72.6 73.6 74.7 75.9 76.7 77.6 78.6 79.5 80.6 Nartfnfque 75.3 76.6 77.9 79.0 79.7 80.3 81.0 81.7 82.4 Mexfco 68.9 70.2 71.6 73.0 74.1 75.2 76.3 77.5 78.7 Nontserrat 69.8 71.7 73.4 75.0 75.9 76.9 77.8 78.9 79.9 Netherlands AntilLes 76.0 77.6 79.0 80.2 80.7 81.3 81.9 82.4 83.0 Nicaragua 63.3 65.7 68.0 70.2 71.4 72.7 74.0 75.3 76.8 Panam 72.1 73.1 74.2 75.3 76.2 77.2 78.1 79.2 80.2 Paraguay 66.9 67.6 68.6 69.8 71.0 72.2 73.5 74.9 76.4 Peru 61.4 63.6 65.8 67.9 69.2 70.6 n.o 73.5 75.0 St. IKftts and Nevis 68.5 70.4 72.3 74.0 75.0 76.0 77.1 78.2 79.3 St. Lucia 70.5 72.2 73.9 75.5 76.3 77.3 78.2 79.2 80.2 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 69.2 71.1 72.9 74.5 75.4 76.4 77.4 78.5 79.6 Suriname 66.7 68.6 70.6 72.4 73.4 74.6 75.7 76.9 78.2 Trinidad and Tobago 70.2 71.6 73.0 74.4 75.4 76.4 77.4 78.5 79.6 Uruguay 72.0 73.7 75.2 76.7 77.5 78.3 79.2 80.1 81.0 Venezuela 69.7 70.4 71.5 72.6 73.7 74.8 75.9 77.1 78.4 Virgin Islands (U.S.) 73.1 74.8 76.3 77.8 78.5 79.3 80.0 80.8 81.7 Other Latin America 66.5 68.1 69.6 70.9 71.4 71.9 72.5 73.0 73.5 Northern America 75.7 76.7 77.8 78.8 79.5 80.2 80.9 81.6 82.3 Canada 76.7 77.8 79.0 80.0 80.5 81.1 81.7 82.3 82.9 Puerto Rico 74.9 76.3 77.5 78.7 79.4 80.1 80.8 81.5 82.3 United States of Amerfea 75.4 76.5 77.5 78.6 79.2 79.9 80.6 81.4 82.1 Other Northern America 69.7 71.0 n.1 73.1 73.5 73.8 74.1 74.5 74.9 sia 63.9 65.3 66.9 68.5 69.6 70.8 72.1 73.5 74.9 East and Southeast Asia 68.4 69.8 71.2 72.7 73.7 74.7 75.8 77.0 78.3 runef 74.4 76.2 77.8 79.1 79.7 80.4 81.0 81.7 82.4 Cambodia 48.4 51.6 54.9 58.0 59.8 61.6 63.5 65.4 67.5 China (excluding Taifan) 69.5 70.6 71.9 73.3 74.3 75.4 76.5 77.7 78.9 xM INTRODUCTION Table 13. Life Expectancy at Birth (continued) Country, economy, or region 1985-89 1990-94 1995-99 2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 2015-19 2020-24 2025-29 Taiwan, China 74.0 74.9 75.9 77.0 77.8 78.6 79.4 80.3 81.2 Hong Kong 77.0 78.2 79.3 80.3 80.8 81.4 81.9 82.5 83.1 Indonesia 60.2 63.0 65.6 68.1 69.4 70.7 72.1 73.6 75.2 Japan 78.2 79.2 80.2 81.1 b1.6 82.1 82.6 83.1 83.6 Korea, Dem. People's Rep. of 69.4 71.3 73.1 74.8 75.7 76.7 77.7 78.7 79.8 Korea, Rep. of 69.3 70.8 72.4 74.0 74.9 75.9 77.0 78.1 79.3 Lao Peopleos Dem. Rep. 48.5 50.2 52.1 54.2 56.1 58.0 59.9 62.0 64.2 Mbaco 70.8 73.1 75.1 76.8 77.6 78.4 79.3 80.2 81.1 Malaysia 69.2 70.5 71.8 73.2 74.2 75.3 76.4 77.6 78.8 Mongolia 61.2 63.5 65.7 67.9 69.2 70.6 72.0 73.5 75.0 Nyaanr 60.0 62.4 64.7 66.9 68.3 69.8 71.3 72.8 74.5 Philippines 63.4 65.0 66.6 68.3 69.6 70.9 72.3 73.8 75.3 Singapore 73.5 74.8 76.1 77.3 78.0 78.8 79.6 80.5 81.4 Thailand 65.0 66.9 68.8 70.7 71.8 73.0 74.3 75.6 77.0 Viet Nam 65.8 67.1 68.6 70.1 71.3 72.6 73.8 75.2 76.6 South Asia 57.0 58.7 60.6 62.5 64.1 65.6 67.3 69.0 70.8 Afghanistan 41.5 42.2 43.4 44.9 46.7 48.7 50.7 52.8 55.1 Bangladesh 50.8 52.1 53.8 55.8 57.6 59.5 61.4 63.4 65.5 Shuten 47.9 49.1 50.7 52.5 54.4 56.3 58.3 60.4 62.6 India 57.9 59.8 61.8 63.9 65.4 66.9 68.5 70.2 71.9 Iran, Islamic Rep. of 62.0 63.6 65.3 67.1 68.5 69.9 71.4 72.9 74.5 Maidives 60.4 62.5 64.5 66.6 68.0 69.5 71.0 72.5 74.2 Nepal 51.0 52.6 54.6 56.8 58.5 60.4 62.3 64.3 66.3 Pakistan 55.0 56.3 57.9 59.7 61.4 63.2 65.0 66.9 68.8 Sri Lanka 70.3 71.6 73.0 74.4 75.3 76.3 77.3 78.4 79.6 Southwest Asia 64.1 65.3 67.2 68.8 69.9 71.0 72.2 73.5 74.9 Bahrain 68.3 69.6 71.0 72.5 73.6 74.7 75.8 77.1 78.3 Cyprus 75.7 76.9 78.1 79.1 79.8 80.4 81.1 81.8 82.5 Gaza Strip 63.0 64.9 66.9 68.9 70.1 71.4 72.8 74.2 75.8 Iraq 63.9 62.4 66.5 68.1 69.4 70.8 72.2 73.7 75.2 Israel 75.6 76.6 77.6 78.6 79.3 80.0 80.7 81.4 82.1 Jordan (East Bank) 65.9 68.1 70.1 72.0 73.1 74.2 75.4 76.7 77.9 Kuwait 73.3 74.7 76.0 77.3 78.0 78.8 79.6 80.5 Z1.4 Lebanon 65.0 65.7 66.8 68.1 69.4 70.7 n.1 73.6 75.2 Oman 63.9 66.8 69.3 71.6 72.7 73.8 75.0 76.3 77.7 Qatar 69.3 70.8 n.4 74.0 74.9 76.0 77.0 78.1 79.3 Saudi Arabia 63.4 65.2 67.0 68.8 70.1 71.4 72.8 74.2 75.7 Syrian Arab Rep. 65.0 66.8 68.7 70.5 71.7 73.0 74.2 75.6 76.9 Turkey 65.6 67.3 69.0 70.8 72.0 73.2 74.4 75.7 77.1 United Arab Emirates 70.7 72.0 73.4 74.8 75.7 76.7 77.7 78.8 79.9 West Bank 65.9 67.4 69.1 70.7 71.8 73.1 74.3 75.6 77.0 Yemen, Rep. of 47.8 48.9 50.3 52.1 53.9 55.8 57.9 60.0 62.2 Europe and C.I.S. 73.1 74.4 75.7 76.9 77.6 78.4 79.2 80.1 81.0 Albania 71.7 72.8 74.0 75.2 76.1 77.1 78.1 79.1 80.1 Armenia 71.5 73.1 74.6 76.0 76.9 77.7 78.7 79.6 80.6 Austria 75.1 76.6 77.9 79.1 79.7 80.4 81.1 81.8 82.5 Azerbafjan 70.0 71.6 73.2 74.6 75.5 76.5 77.5 78.6 79.7 Belarus 72.1 73.7 75.1 76.4 77.3 78.1 79.0 79.9 80.9 Belgium 75.4 76.8 78.0 79.1 79.7 80.4 81.1 81.8 82.5 Bulgaria 72.0 73.1 74.2 75.5 76.3 77.2 78.2 79.2 80.3 Channel Islands 76.2 77.4 78.5 79.5 80.1 80.7 81.4 82.0 82.7 Czechoslovakia 71.2 71.8 72.7 73.7 74.7 75.7 76.8 77.9 79.1 Croatia 71.6 73.5 75.3 76.8 7r.6 78.4 79.3 80.2 81.1 Denmark 74.8 75.6 76.5 77.5 78.2 79.0 79.8 80.6 81.5 Estonia 69.9 71.9 73.7 75.4 76.3 77.2 78.1 79.1 80.2 Ffnland 74.9 76.1 77.2 78.3 79.0 79.7 80.4 81.2 82.0 France 76.1 77.3 78.5 79.5 80.1 80.8 81.4 82.0 82.7 INTRODUCTION XIvii Table 13. Life Epec:tancy at Birth (continued) Country, econowy, or region 1985-89 1990-94 1995-99 2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 2015-19 2020-24 2025-29 Georgia 71.5 73.0 74.4 75.8 76.7 77.6 78.5 79.5 80.5 Germny 75.3 76.8 78.2 79.4 80.0 80.7 81.3 82.0 82.6 Greece 76.4 77.6 78.7 79.8 80.4 81.0 81.6 82.2 82.8 Hungary 70.2 71.0 72.1 73.3 74.3 75.3 76.4 77.6 78.8 Icetand 77.5 78.4 79.2 80.1 80.6 81.2 81.8 82.4 83.0 Ireland 73.8 74.7 75.8 76.9 77.7 78.5 79.3 80.2 81.2 Itaty 76.8 77.9 78.9 79.9 80.4 81.0 81.6 82.2 82.9 Kazakhstan 67.4 69.1 70.7 72.4 73.4 74.5 75.6 76.8 78.0 Kyrgypstan 68.0 69.3 70.8 72.2 73.3 74.4 75.5 76.7 78.0 Latvia 69.9 71.9 73.7 75.4 76.2 77.1 78.1 79.1 80.1 Lithuania 71.1 73.0 74.8 76.3 77.1 78.0 78.9 79.8 80.8 Luxembourg 74.3 75.4 76.4 77.5 78.2 79.0 79.8 80.7 81.5 Matta 72.7 73.8 75.0 76.2 77.0 77.9 78.8 79.7 80.7 Notdova 68.1 69.5 71.0 72.5 73.6 74.6 75.8 77.0 78.2 NotherLands 76.6 77.4 78.2 79.1 79.7 80.4 81.0 81.7 82.5 Norway 76.8 77.6 78.5 79.4 80.1 80.7 81.3 82.0 82.7 Poland 70.9 71.5 72.3 73.3 74.3 75.4 76.5 77.6 78.9 Portugat 74.1 75.5 76.7 77.9 78.7 79.4 80.2 81.0 81.8 Romania 69.2 69.8 70.8 71.9 73.0 74.1 75.3 76.5 77.9 Russian Federation 70.1 72.2 74.0 75.7 76.5 77.4 78.4 79.3 80.3 Slovenia 72.3 74.2 75.8 77.4 78.1 78.9 79.7 80.6 81.5 SpaIn 75.9 76.4 77.1 78.0 78.7 79.4 80.2 81.0 81.8 Sweden 77.1 77.9 78.8 79.6 80.2 80.8 81.4 82.1 82.7 Switzertand 77.3 78.4 79.5 80.4 81.0 81.5 82.1 82.6 83.2 Tajikistan 68.4 69.6 70.9 72.3 73.4 74.5 75.7 76.9 78.1 Turkmenistan 64.8 66.4 68.1 69.8 71.0 72.3 73.6 74.9 76.3 United Kingdom 75.0 76.0 77.0 78.1 78.8 79.5 80.3 81.0 81.8 Ukraine 71.7 73.0 74.3 75.7 76.5 77.4 78.4 79.3 80.4 Uzbekistan 67.9 69.3 70.8 72.3 73.4 74.5 75.6 76.8 78.1 Yugostavig 70.4 72.0 73.6 75.1 76.0 1'7.0 78.0 79.0 80.1 Other Europe 74.9 75.3 75.7 76.0 76.1 76.3 76.4 76.5 76.7 Oceania 71.9 72.9 73.9 74.9 75.7 76.4 77.3 78.2 79.1 Austratia 76.1 77.1 78.1 79.0 79.7 80.3 81.0 81.7 82.4 Fiji 63.8 65.3 67.0 68.7 69.9 71.2 72.6 74.1 75.6 French Polynesia 71.7 73.1 74.5 75.8 76.7 77.6 78.5 79.5 80.5 Gums 72.1 73.4 74.8 76.1 77.0 77.8 78.7 79.7 80.7 Kirfbati 53.9 56.0 58.2 60.5 62.1 63.8 65.6 67.5 69.5 Micronesia, Fed. States of 70.0 70.8 71.9 73.1 74.1 75.2 76.3 77.5 78.7 New Catedonia 67.9 69.8 71.7 73.4 74.4 75.4 76.5 77.7 78.9 New Zeatand 74.8 75.8 76.9 78.0 78.7 79.4 80.2 81.0 81.8 Papua New Gufnea 53.9 55.2 56.9 58.7 60.3 62.1 63.9 65.9 68.0 Solomon Islands 63.3 65.3 67.4 69.4 70.6 71.9 73.3 74.6 76.1 Tongs 65.7 67.9 69.9 71.9 73.0 74.1 75.3 76.6 77.9 Vanuatu 63.4 65.2 67.2 69.0 70.3 71.6 73.0 74.4 75.8 Western Samoa 65.4 66.6 68.0 69.5 70.8 72.0 73.4 74.7 76.2 Other Nicronesia 66.9 68.6 70.3 72.0 73.1 74.2 75.4 76.7 78.0 Other Polynesia 69.7 71.3 72.8 74.3 75.3 76.3 77.3 78.4 79.5 XMiI INOWUnON Table 14. Esdma and Piojeclon of Infant Mortaky Rat for All CounWa and Econorcs, 1985-90 to 2025-30 wper tikousand le bbhs) Country, econowy, or regfon 1985-89 1990-94 1995-99 2n0-4 200S-09 2010-14 2015-19 2020-24 2025-29 World 69 62 56 so 45 40 35 29 24 Africa 105 96 69 79 74 68 62 56 49 East Africa 109 104 97 8r so 74 68 62 55 Botawana 42 35 29 24 22 20 18 16 14 Burundi 110 105 96 8 76 73 67 61 55 Conoros 99 87 75 63 sT so 44 37 31 Djibouti 122 111 99 s so 73 67 60 53 Ethiopia 137 126 ll 105 97 69 61 73 65 Kenya 72 6 56 49 44 40 36 31 27 Lesotho 100 89 76 66 60 54 48 43 37 Nadagascar 120 113 103 91 64 77 70 63 56 Nalawf 150 149 143 133 122 112 101 90 80 Mauritius 23 19 15 13 12 11 10 9 8 Nozwbique 141 135 125 112 104 95 86 78 69 Nmibfa 106 96 66 75 66 61 54 47 40 Reunion 14 12 10 a a 7 6 5 4 Rwanda 122 119 111 100 92 84 77 69 61 Seycheltes 18 16 14 11 10 9 7 6 5 Somtls 132 122 109 97 89 82 75 68 61 South Africa 72 61 52 43 39 35 31 27 23 Swaziland 116 108 97 85 77 69 61 54 46 Tanzania 115 115 108 96 91 84 76 69 62 -ganda 115 118 113 103 96 86 80 72 5 Zefre 98 91 6l 70 64 58 53 47 41 Zambia 80 84 84 73 67 61 54 48 42 Zfmbebwe 52 47 43 36 32 29 26 23 20 Other East Afrfca 99 87 7S 63 57 50 44 37 30 West Afrfca 113 103 93 82 76 70 64 58 52 Angola 137 125 112 99 92 6s 77 70 63 Benin 116 111 104 95 7 79 72 64 57 Burkina Faso 138 132 123 112 104 95 87 78 69 Cameroon 94 85 74 64 5 52 47 41 35 Cape Verde 44 39 33 2S 26 23 21 18 16 Central African Rep. 104 99 90 80 74 68 62 56 50 Chad 132 120 107 94 6 80 73 65 58 Congo, People's Rep. of the 119 114 104 94 aS 77 69 60 52 Cote d*vofre 96 94 86 75 69 62 55 48 42 Equatorfal Guinea 127 116 104 92 a5 78 71 64 58 Gabon 103 93 e1 69 63 S7 51 46 40 Gamble, The 143 132 120 107 100 92 85 78 70 Ghana 90 81 71 61 S6 51 46 40 35 Guinea 145 133 121 107 100 94 8T 80 73 Guinea-Bissau 151 14? 136 126 118 111 104 97 90 Lfberfa 142 132 120 10S 90 a8 78 6B 58 MaLf 169 164 1ST 149 136 124 112 100 87 Mauritania 127 117 106 93 6r 80 74 68 61 Niger 135 123 111 9S 91 84 77 71 64 Nigeria 105 94. 83 71 66 61 56 51 46 Sao Tme and Prifncipe 74 65 56 46 38 30 22 14 6 Senegal 87 76 66 56 S2 49 46 43 40 SierraLeone 154 142 130 117 109 102 94 86 78 Togo 94 84 74 63 58 53 48 42 37 Other est Afrfc 72 61 51 42 34 27 19 12 4 North Africa S0 70 60 51 45 40 34 28 22 Algeria 74 62 51 41 35 28 21 14 7 Egypt, Arab Rep. of 73 61 51 41 37 32 27 22 18 INrRODUCTiON xlbc Table 14. Infant Mortality Rate (condnued) Country, economy, or region 1985.89 1990-94 1995-99 2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 2015-19 2020.24 2025-29 Libya 82 69 57 47 40 32 25 18 11 Morocco 73 63 53 44 38 33 27 21 15 Sudan 108 99 88 76 71 65 60 54 48 Tunisia 50 41 33 27 23 19 15 11 7 Other North Africa 120 106 93 80 74 69 64 58 53 America 42. 36 31 25 22 18 14 10 7 Latin America and Caribbean 53 46 39 32 27 23 18 13 8 Antiguo and Barbuda 22 18 14 12 10 9 7 5 4 Argentina 32 27 23 18 16 13 10 7 5 Bahamas, The 28 23 19 15 13 11 9 7 5 Barbados 12 9 8. 7 6 5 5 4 3 Belize 50 41 33 27 23 19 14 10 6 Bolivia 98 88 76 65 56 48 39 30 21 Brazil 63 54 45 37 31 25 19 13 7 Chile 18 16 13 11 10 8 7 6 4 Colombia 40 36 30 25 21 17 14 10 6 Costa Rica 1S 16 13 11 9 8 6 5 3 Cuba 13 11 9 7 7 6 5 4 3 Dominica 18 15 13 11 9 8 6 5 3 Dominican Rep. 61 53 44 36 30 24 18 12 6 Ecuador 58 53 45 38 32 26 20 14 8 El Salvador 59 49 40 33 28 23 19 14 10 Grenada 34 29 24 19 16 13 11 8 5 Guadeloupe 16 14 12 10 9 7 6 5 3 Guatemala 68 58 49 40 34 28 23 17 11 Guyano 56 48 40 33 28 24 19 15 10 Haiti 97 93 87 79 72 65 58 51 44 Honduras 69 61 52 44 37 30 23 16 9 Jamaica 17 15 13 11 9 8 7 5 4 Martinique 11 9 8 6 6 5 4 4 3 Mexico 43 37 30 25 21 17 13 9 5 Nontserrat 32 28 23 19 16 13 10 7 4 Netherlands Antilles 14 12 10 9 8 6 5 4 3 Nlcaragua 62 51 41 33 28 23 18 12 7 Panams 23 19 16 13 11 10 8 6 4 Paraguay 34 30 26 21 19 16 13 10 8 Peru 76 65 54 45 38 31 24 17 11 St. Kitts and Nevis 40 34 28 23 19 16 12 8 5 St. Lucia 21 17 14 12 10 9 7 6 4 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 25 20 16 13 12 10 8 6 5 Suriname 42 37 31 25 21 17 14 10 6 Trinidad and Tobago 28 23 19 15 13 11 9 7 4 Uruguay 24 18 15 12 10 9 7 5 4 Venezuela 36 33 28 23 20 16 13 9 5 Virgin Islands (U.S.) 19 17 14 12 10 8 7 5 3 Other Latin America 43 35 28 23 21 20 19 17 16 Northern America 10 9 8 7 6 5 5 4 3 Canada 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 Puerto Rico 14 12 10 8 7 6 5 4 3 united States of America 10 9 8 7 6 5 5 4 3 Other Northern America 19 16 13 11 11 11 10 10 10 Asia 70 62 54 47 42 36 30 24 18 East and Southeast Asia 39 32 26 21 18 15 13 10 7 Brunri 10 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 Cambodia 130 108 89 74 67 60 53 46 39 China (excluding Taiwan) 32 27 22 18 15 13 10 8 5 I INTRO TUWO Table 14. Infant MonaMa, t%ate (contidnued) Country, economy, or region 198I-89 1990-K 1995-99 2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 2015-19 2020-24 2025-29 Tafuan, China 17 1S 13 11 9 8 6 5 4 Hong Kong 7 6 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 Indonesia 71 55 43 34 29 25 20 15 10 Jawpn 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 Korea, Den. People's Rep. of 28 24 20 17 14 12 9 7 4 Korea, Rep. ot 20 15 12 10 9 a 7 6 5 Lao People's am. Rep. 110 98 85 72 68 64 60 56 52 Macao 12 10 8 7 6 6 5 4 4 Malaysia 18 15 12 10 9 8 7 6 5 Mongolia 68 58 48 39 34 28 22 16 10 Myonnr 70 60 50 41 36 30 25 20 1S Philippines 45 38 31 26 23 19 16 13 10 Singapore 7 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 Thail nd 31 25 20 16 14 13 11 9 7 VietNam 46 39 32 26 23 19 15 11 7 South Asia 102 93 82 71 63 54 46 37 28 Afghanistan 172 168 161 153 141 129 118 106 94 Bangladesh 110 101 90 78 71 65 59 53 46 Bhutan 127 119 109 97 89 81 74 66 59 India 98 88 76 65 57 48 39 31 22 Iran, Islamc Rep. of 93 85 75 64 54 43 33 22 11 Maldives 77 65 55 45 39 32 26 20 14 Nepal 127 117 106 93 83 73 63 53 43 Pakistan 107 100 90 79 69 60 51 42 33 Sri Lanka 22 18 14 12 10 9 7 6 4 Southwest Asia 69 62 54 46 41 36 30 25 19 Bahrain 35 30 25 20 17 14 11 8 5 Cyprus 12 9 7 6 6 5 4 4 3 Gaza Strip 59 48 39 32 27 22 18 13 9 Iraq 69 63 55 46 39 32 24 17 10 Israel 11 9 8 7 6 5 5 4 3 Jordan (East Bank) 57 47 39 31 26 21 16 11 6 Kuwait 16 12 10 8 7 6 5 4 4 Lebanon 48 44 39 32 28 24 19 15 10 Onmn 40 29 22 17 15 13 11 8 6 Qatar 31 25 20 17 14 12 9 7 5 Saudi Arabia 71 61 52 43 36 29 22 16 9 Syrian Arab Rep. 48 39 32 25 22 18 14 11 7 Turkey 65 S6 47 39 32 26 19 13 7 United Arab Emirates 26 21 17 14 12 10 8 6 4 West Bank S0 44 36 30 25 21 16 11 7 Yemen, Rep. of 128 121 111 99 91 84 76 68 61 Europe and C.l.S. 18 15 13 11 9 8 7 5 4 Albania 28 30 25 20 17 14 11 7 4 Armenia 22 18 15 12 11 9 7 6 4 Austria 10 8 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 AzerbaiJan 28 23 19 16 14 11 9 7 5 Belarus 14 12 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 Belglu 10 8 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 Bulgaria 15 14 12 10 9 8 6 5 4 Chnnel Islndb 9 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 Czechoslovakfa 13 11 10 8 8 7 6 6 5 Croatia 1S 13 11 9 8 7 6 5 4 Doeimrk 8 8 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 Estonfa 1S 13 11 10 9 7 6 5 4 Finland 7 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 France 8 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 INTRODUCTON 11 Table 14. Infant Mortall Rate (continued) Country, economy, or region 1985-89 1990I94 1995-99 2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 2015-19 2020-24 2025-29 Georgia 22 18 14 12 10 9 7 6 4 Germany 8 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 Greece 13 11 9 7 7 6 5 4 3 Hungary 17 14 12 10 9 8 7 6 5 Iceland 7 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 Iret nd 8 7 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 Italy 10 8 7 6 5 5 4 3 3 Kazakhstan 27 23 19 16 14 12 10 9 7 Kyrgyzstan 34 29 24 20 17 14 12 9 7 Latvia 12 10 9 8 7 6 6 5 4 Lithuania 11 10 9 7 7 6 5 5 4 Luxewkourg 9 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 Matta 10 8 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 Noldova 24 19 15 12 11 10 8 7 6 NetherLands 8 7 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 Norway 8 8 7 6 6 S 4 4 3 Poland 18 16 13 11 10 9 8 6 5 Portugal 14 11 9 7 7 6 5 4 3 Romania 25 27 23 19 16 14 11 9 6 Russfan Federation 19 16 13 11 10 8 7 6 4 Slovenfa 12 10 8 7 6 6 5 4 4 Spain 9 8 7 6 6 5 4 4 3 Sweden 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 Switzerland 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 Tajikfstan 47 42 35 29 24 20 15 10 6 Turkmenistan 54 50 43 36 31 26 21 16 10 United Kngdom 9 8 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 Ukraine 15 13 11 9 8 7 6 5 4 Uzbek1stan 39 34 28 23 20 16 13 9 6 Yugoslevia 28 23 19 16 13 11 9 6 4 Other Europe 14 12 11 10 9 9 9 9 9 Oceanfe 27 24 20 16 15 15 14 13 12 Australfa 8 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 Fiji 27 22 18 15 14 13 12 11 10 French Polynesla 23 19 15 12 11 9 7 6 4 Guim 12 10 8 7 6 6 5 5 4 Kiribatf 62 53 45 37 36 35 33 32 31 Nicronesia, Fed. States of 28 25 21 17 15 12 10 8 5 New Caledonfa 36 29 24 19 16 14 11 8 5 New Zeoland 11 10 8 7 6 6 5 4 3 Papua New Oufnes 63 54 45 37 37 37 37 37 36 Solomon Islands 53 44 35 29 24 20 16 12 8 Tongs 27 19 15 12 11 9 8 7 6 Varnatu 75 65 55 46 39 31 24 16 9 Ubstern Samoe SO 44 37 31 26 22 17 13 9 Other NicronesIa 32 26 21 17 15 13 10 8 6 Other Polynesia 26 21 17 14 12 10 8 6 5 Ill INTRODUCTION Table 15. Stationary Population, Momentum, and Year that Net Reproduction Rate Reaches 1 forAll Countries and Economies Stationary Ratio Popu- Year Stationary Ratio Popu- Year population to tation when population to lation when (millions) 1990 momentum NRRml (millions) 1990 momentum NRRAn world 12186 2.3 1.4 2060 North Africa 425 3.0 1.6 2050 Algeria 78 3.1 1.7 2020 Africa 3028 4.7 1.5 2055 Egypt, Arab Rep. of 120 2.3 1.5 2015 Libya 35 7.8 1.6 2050 East Africa 1498 5.5 1.5 2055 Morocco 69 2.8 1.6 2020 Botswana 4 2.9 1.8 2015 Sudan 101 4.0 1.5 2035 Burundi 32 5.9 1.5 2045 Tunisia 18 2.2 1.6 2010 Comoros 3 5.4 1.6 2035 Other North Africa 1 4.9 1.4 2040 Ojibouti 2 4.9 1.4 2040 Ethiopia 417 8.1 1.5 2050 America 1311 1.8 1.4 2035 Kenya 124 5.1 1.7 2035 Lesotho 6 3.4 1.5 2025 Latin America and Carib. 938 2.1 1.5 2035 Madagascar 45 3.9 1.5- 2030 Antigua and Barbuda 0 1.8 1.7 2030 Malawi 62 7.3 1.6 2050 Argentina 53 1.7 1.3 2005 Mauritius 2 1.4 1.4 2030 Bahamas, The 0 1.9 1.5 1990 Mozambique 96 6.1 1.4 2045 Barbados 0 1.2 1.3 2030 Namibia 7 4.0 1.6 2030 Belize 1 3.1 1.8 2020 Reunion 1 1.8 1.5 1995 Bolivia 21 2.9 1.6 2020 Rwanda 65 9.1 1.6 2055 Brazil 304 2.0 1.5 2005 Seychelles 0 1.8 1.6 2005 Chile 23 1.7 1.4 2000 Somalia 47 6.0 1.5 2045 Colombia 62 1.9 1.6 2000 South Africa 96 2.7 1.5 2020 Costa Rica 6 2.0 1.6 2005 Swaziland 4 5.1 1.7 2035 Cuba 14 1.3 1.3 2030 Tanzania 144 5.9 1.6 2045 Dominica 0 1.9 1.8 2000 Uganda 91 5.6 1.6 2045 Dominican Rep. 14 2.0 1.6 2005 Zaire 171 4.6 1.6 2035 Ecuador 24 2.3 1.6 2010 Zambia 41 5.1 1.6 2040 El Salvador 13 2.5 1.7 2015 Zimbabwe 28 2.8 1.7 2015 Grenada 0 1.8 1.6 2005 Other East Africa 0 5.4 1.6 2035 Guadeloupe 1 1.5 1.4 1995 Guatemala 33 3.5 1.7 2025 West Africa 1105 4.7 1.5 2055 Guyana 1 1.7 1.5 2000 Angola 61 6.1 1.4 2045 Haiti 19 3.0 1.5 2035 Benin 19 4.0 1.6 2035 Honduras 18 3.5 1.7 2025 Burkina Faso 48 5.3 1.5 2045 Jamaica 4 1.6 1.6 2000 Cameroon 53 4.5 1.6 2035 Martinique 1 1.4 1.3 1990 Cape Verde 1 3.8 1.8 2025 Mexico 184 2.1 1.7 2005 Central African Rep. 11 3.7 1.4 2035 Montserrat 0 1.5 1.4 2000 Chad 28 4.9 1.4 2040 Nethertands Antilles 0 1.6 1.5 1990 Congo, PeopLe's Rep. of 14 6.3 1.6 2045 Nicaragua 14 3.6 1.7 2025 Cote d'ivoire 63 5.3 1.6 2040 Panama 5 1.9 1.6 2000 Equatorial Guinea 2 3.6 1.3 2035 Paraguay 16 3.7 1.6 2030 Gabon 6 5.4 1.4 2045 Peru 50 2.3 1.5 2010 Gambia, The 5 5.6 1.4 2045 St. Kitts and Nevis 0 1.3 1.6 2000 Ghana 62 1.6 2030 St. Lucia 0 2.1 1.7 2005 Guinea 33 5.7 1.5 2045 St. Vincent & Grenadines 0 1.9 1.6 2000 Guinea-Bissau 4 1.3 2040 Suriname 1 2.2 1.6 2010 Liberia 11 1.6 2035 Trinidad and Tobago 2 1.7 1.5 2005 Mali 57 6.8 1.5 2050 Uruguay 4 1.4 1.2 1995 Mauritania 14 7.0 1.4 2050 Venezuela 45 2.3 1.6 2010 Niger 72 9.4 1.5 2055 Virgin Islands (U.S.) 0 1.7 1.5 1995 Nigeria 398 1.6 2035 Other Latin America 0 1.8 1.5 2000 Sao Tome and Principe 0 1.6 2025 Senegal 43 5.8 1.4 2045 Northern America 373 1.3 1.1 2030 Sierra Leone 23 1.3 2045 Canada 34 1.3 1.1 2030 Togo 17 4.8 1.6 2035 Puerto Rico 5 1.3 1.3 1995 Other West Africa 0 2.0 1.4 2005 United States of America 334 1.3 1.1 2030 Other Northern America 0 1.2 1.2 2030 INTI'OIUCTIONI lii Table 15. (continued) Stationary Ratio Popu Tear Stationary Ratio Popu- Year population to tation whan population to lotion when (millons) 1990 somntum NaRoi (millions) 1990 momentun NRR.1 Asia 6846 2.2 1.4 2060 S Igh. 10 1.0 1.0 2030 Bulgaria 9 1.0 1.0 2030 East and Southeast Asia 3006 1.7 1.4 2040 Chnnwel Issnds 0 1.1 1.0 2030 BrunAi 1 2.4 1.5 2015 Caschoslovakia 19 1.2 1.1 2030 Cambodia 20 2.3 1.3 2015 Croatio 5 1.1 1.0 2030 China (excludino Taiwan) 1886 1.7 1.4 2000 Denmark 5 1.0 1.0 2030 Taiwan, China 27 1.3 1.4 2030 Estonia 2 1.3 1.0 1990 HonO Kong 7 1.2 1.2 2030 Finland 5 1.1 1.0 2030 IndonesIa 358 2.0 1.5 2005 France 63 1.1 1.1 2030 Japan 128 1.0 1.1 2030 Ceorgia 7 1.3 1.2 1990 Korea, Dem. Peoplets Rep. 39 1.8 1.5 199 Ge rmany 80 1.0 1.0 2030 Korea, Rep. of 56 1.3 1.3 2030 Greece 10 1.0 1.1 2030 Lao People's Dm. Rep. 21 5.1 1.5 2040 Hungary 10 1.0 1.0 2030 Macao 1 1.5 1.2 1990 Iceland 0 1.5 1.3 2030 Malaysia 44 2.5 1.6 2015 Irelond 4 1.3 1.3 1990 Mongolia 6 2.9 1.6 2020 Italy 55 1.0 1.0 2030 Myanner 96 2.3 1.5 2010 Kazakhstan 28 1.7 1.3 2000 Philippines 137 2.2 1.5 2010 Kyrwyzstan 10 2.3 1.5 2015 Singapore 4 1.3 1.2 2030 Latvia 3 1.2 1.0 2030 Thailand 102 1.9 1.5 1995 Lithuania 5 1.3 1.1 2030 Viet Nan 159 2.4 1.6 2015 Luxinourg 0 1.0 1.0 2030 Maltt 0 1.3 1.1 2030 South Asia 3232 2.7 1.5 2060 Noldova 7 1.7 1.3 2000 Afghanistan 127 6.2 1.4 2050 Netherlands 17 1.1 1.1 2030 Bangladesh 255 2.4 1.5 201S Norway 5 1.1 1.1 2030 Bhutan 5 3.7 1.4 2035 Poland 50 1.3 1.1 1990 India 1855 2.2 1.4 2015 Portugal 11 1.1 1.1 2030 Iran, Islamic Rep. of 490 8.8 1.7 2060 Romania 31 1.3 1.1 1990 Maldives 1 4.8 1.J 2035 Russian Federation 191 1.3 1.1 1995 Nepal 58 3.1 1.5 2025 Slovenia 2 1.1 1.1 2030 Pakistan 397 3.5 1.6 2030 Spain 40 1.0 1.1 2030 Sri Lanka 28 17 1.5 1995 Sweden 10 1.1 1.0 2030 Switzerland r 1.1 1.0 2030 Southwest Asfa 528 4.0 1.6 2055 Tajikistan 17 3.1 1.7 2020 Bahrain 2 3.2 1.4 2030 Turbmenistan 9 2.5 1.6 2015 Cyprus 1 1.4 1.2 1995 United Kingdom 64 1.1 1.0 2030 Gaza Strip 3 5.0 1.7 203S Ukrafne 63 1.2 1.0 1990 Iraq 85 4.5 1.7 2030 Uzbeklstan 52 2.5 1.6 2015 Israel 10 2.1 1.4 2005 YugolavIa 23 1.3 1.2 2030 Jordan (East Bank) 12 4.0 1.8 2025 Other Europe 0 1.3 1.1 1990 Kuwaft 4 2.0 1.5 2010 Lebanon 6 2.2 1.6 2015 Oceania 46 1.7 1.3 2035 Oman 10 6.2. 1.6 2040 Qatar 1 3.2 1.3 2030 Australia 24 1.4 1.2 2030 Saudi Arabia 89 6.0 1.6 2040 Ffif 1 1.7 1.5 2005 Syrian Arab Rep. 66 5.4 1.8 2035 French Polynesia 0 2.4 1.7 2010 Turkey 120 2.1 1.5 2010 Cuam 0 1.8 1.5 2000 Unfted Arab Emirates 3 2.2 1.2 2020 Kiribetf 0 2.5 1.4 2020 Mest Bank 4 3.9 1.7 2025 icronesia, Fed. States 0 3.0 1.7 2020 Yemen, Rep. of 109 9.7 1.5 2055 New Caledonfe 0 1.9 1.5 2000 New Zealand 4 1.3 1.2 2030 Europe and C.I.S. 95S 1.2 1.1 2030 Papu New Gufnea 11 2.9 1.4 2020 Soltmon stlnds 1 3.7 1.7 2035 Albanfa 6 1.9 1.5 2005 Tongp 0 2.1 1.5 2015 Armenia 5 1.5 1.3 1995 Vanustu 1 3.8 1.7 2030 Austrfa 8 1.0 1.0 2030 Vstern Samo 0 2.6 1.6 2020 AzerbafJan 12 1.7 1.4 2000 Other icronesa 0 2.6 1.6 2015 Belarus 13 1.3 1.1 1990 Other Polynesa 0 2.4 1.7 2010 lIV INTRODUCTON Table 16. Populaton of Counvies and Economies in the 'Othee Categories Population Population Country or 1985 Country or 1985 economy (thousands) economy (thousands) Other West Africa 6.9 Other Europe 260.0 St. Helena 5.6 Andorra 45.0 Ascencion 1.0 Feeroe Islands 46.0 Tristan da Cunha 0.3 Gfbraltar 29.0 Holy See 1.0 Other East Africa 60.8 Isle of Man 63.0 Mayotte 60.8 LIechtenstein 27.0 Monaco 27.0 Other North Africa San Marino 22.0 Western Sahara 155.0 Other Micronesia 85.0 Other Latin America Johnston ;sland 1.0 and the Caribbean 194.0 Narshall Islands 36.0 Anguilla 7.0 Nidway Islands 2.0 Aruba 60.0 Northern Mariana Islands 20.0 British Virgin Islands 12.0 Nauru 8.0 Cayman Islands 22.0 Paltu 16.0 Falkland Islands 2.0 Wake Island 2.0 French Guiana 83.0 Turks and Caicos Islands 8.0 Other Polynesia 80.1 America Samoa 36.0 Other Northern America 115.0 Cook Islands 18.0 Bermuda 56.0 Niue 3.0 Greenland 53.0 Pitcairn 0.1 St. Pierre and Miquelon 6.0 Tokelau Islands 2.0 Tuvalu 8.0 Wallis and Futuna Islands 13.0 SPECIAL Topic 1: PROJECnNO AIDS MORTALuY Iv SPECIAL TOPIC I: PROJECTING AIDS MORTALITY This section describes the methodology used to incorporate AIDS mortality in the projections and compares resulting demographic Indicators with those constructed if AIDS is not incorporated, as in previous editions of the World Bank's projections. The methodology makes use of an epidemiological model developed at the World Bank that simulates the spread of HIV, and the demographic model used to do the population projections (Bulatao and Bos, 1992). Simulations of the effect of current HIV prevalence on projected future mortality are used to derive equations that can be applied to populations with measurable levels of HIV infection with a minimum requirement for data. Epidemlological model The epidemiological model, developed by Bulatao (1991) consists of a numerical simulation of three processes: the spread of HIV, the development of AIDS among those infected with HIV, and the progression form AIDS to death. The three processes are modeled separately for adults (those aged 15 years and over) and children. The model allows HIV to spread sexually between partners, through blood transfusions, infected needles, and perinatally between mother and child. Seawl transmission In handling the sexual transmission of HIV, the model first divides all adults in the population into four sexual orientation groups: females (assumed to be all heterosexual), heterosexual males, homosexual males, and bisexual males. Females are assumed to choose partners from among heterosexual and bisexual males; heterosexual males from among females; homosexual males from among themselves and bisexual males; and bisexual males from females, homosexual males, and among themselves. Within each group, up to ten subgroups varying by sexual behavior can be defrned. Those who have developed AIDS are assumed not to be sexually active, and therefore are effectively in a no-sex subgroup. Given some initial assumption about the proportion infected with HIV in a particular year, the number sexually infected in each subsequent year is calculated subgroup by subgroup. In its basic form, the calculation of the number of HIV seroconversions (0) In one year (t) in a given subgroup (s) of one sexual orientation group (r) is given by 0°n = Mtvtl Pt.1 {1 - (1 - 01) (1 - Or) (1 - R1,.1 [I - (1 - T'r)5"I)} (1) where M is the number of HIV seronegatives in the subgroup, P is the likelihood of adult survival from mortality unrelated to HIV, R is the proportion of potential sexual contacts, or agents, who are infective, T is the likelihood of transmission to group r through sexual contact, S is an average number for sex acts per partner, and F is the annual number of new partners. (Differeint values of F and S are the main factors distinguishing sexual orientation subgroups.) 0 and OT wil: be explained below. The proportion of agents (R) infective to subgroup s is the weighted proportion across all other subgroups with which subgroup s has sexual contact who are asymptomatic but HIV- seropositive (A). The weights used are the frequencies (F) with which these other subgroups take new sexual partners. The asymptomatic seropositives (A) in a given subgroup are calculated by summing up all those infected in previous years and subtracting those expected to progress to AIDS or to die from other causes. M SPECIAL Topic 1: PRoJEcTiNo AIDS MoFrrAUry No restrictions are placed on the way sexual orientation groups are divided into subgroups or on the values of F and S specified for each subgroup. Inconsistent parameters, requiring for example that males have many more sexual partners in the aggregate than the available females, can be used as input. The model adjusts the input figures If necessary, essentiaUly taking averages or adjusting figures proportionally, in order to force them into consistency. These adjustments are made for each year of the simulation, as the number and distribution of the sexually active changes. Nonsalw tranwussion Infection with HIV through needles and blood accounts for the terms 0, and OT in equation (1). The adult population is divided into crosscutting subgroups for number of annual transfusions and number of annual Injections, with the bulk of adults typically assumed to be in zero- frequency subgroups. The probability of infection (0, or Or) in each subgroup is then a function of the proportion of "agente (needles or blood) infected, the likelihood of transmission through a single exposure to an Infected agent, and the frequency of such expos"re, through injections or transfusions, for the particular subgroup. The formula is similar to (1), leaving out a few irrelevant terms. The proportion of needles infected is equal to the proportion of adults infected, weighted by the frequency with which each receives an injection. The proportion of blood infected is equal to the proportion of adults infected, optionally weighted by propensity to donate blood, which can be specified for each sexual orientation subgroup. Both these proportions can be modifled, the first by a specified proportion of needles sterilized and the second by a specified proportion of blood screened. For perinataL or vertical, transmission, the number of infected newborns is the product of the number of women of reproductive age, the proportion of women infected (including, in this case, those who have progressed to AIDS), the general fertility rate, and an optional adjustment factor that can be used if it is assumed that those infected have either higher or lower fertility than others The model does not allow overall fertility to be affected by use of this adjustment factor, implying in effect that fertility among those not infected either rises or falls to counterbalance the adjustment. Nor does the model make allowance for children being infected in any other fashion, nor for their transmitting the virus to anyone else. gson from WV to AIDS The number that progress to AIDS is determined by applying separate schedules for adults and children that depend on year since initial infection, after excluding mortality from other causes. The model therefore keeps track of cohorts of HIV seropositives distinguished by infection date, so that appropriate progression rates can be applied. A logistic function of the form H - k / [2 + exp (a + bt)I (2) is presently applied in generating the schedule, but alternative functions can in principle be incorporated. The progression from infection to frank AIDS for both adults and children can be modeled with the same functional form, with the parameters set to allow substantialy faster progression for children. Psgesionfim HIVto AIDS Progression from AIDS to death is handled in a similar manner as progression to frank AIDS, using a logistic pattern. SPECIAL Topic 1: PROJECTNG AIDS MORrAUTY Mi Model complicaions Several additional features of the model mainly affect the transmission process and allow tests of the effects of various unknown parameters. These features, listed below, can be ignored in a routine run of the modeL (i) Random movement between sexual orientaton subgroups. Membership in the four main sexual orientation groups is assumed to be fixed. Within these groups, subgroup proportions are initially specified by the user, and these proportions are applied to the initial population and to all those entering adulthood each year. In one scenario, each individual stays in the same subgroup all his or her life. In an alternative scenario, some proportion of individuals moves between subgroups each year. The model a11ows speciflcation of a fixed proportion of individuals who move randomly among subgroups, with the likelihood that they enter a given subgroup being proportional to the distribution across subgroups. This is accomplished computationally by redistributing the specified proportion of individuals each year before calculating seroconversions. (if) Infective phases. Different probabilities of transmission can be entered for contact between susceptibles and particular infective agents--men, women, needles, blood, mothers. In addition, human agents can be allowed to vary in infectivity over time. The period between infection and development of AIDS can be divided into up to six segments of varying length, for each of which a speciflc probability of transmission can be specified. (Since the entire period varies in length across individuals, the segments are proportional rather than of absolute length.) Computationally, this affects equation (1), in which the term R,t., [1 - (1 - T,)A (3) is actually calculated as the summation of similar terms for each of the infective phases. (lii) Cofactorm The model allows condom use, genital ulcers, and one user-specified cofactor to affect infection by acting as a multipHer of transmission rates. In the case of condoms, for instance, transmission rates may be multipled by .1 or .2 or some other value for those using condoms. An appropriate multiplier and the proportion in each sexual orientation subgroup to whom the cofactor applies must be specified. From period to period, those to whom the cofactoi apylies may stay essentially the same or may change randomly. *iv) Anal sex. On the assumption that anal sex carries different risks from other forms of sex, the user is allowed to specify what this greater risk is and what proportion of sex acts involve anal intercourse for each sexual orientation subgroup. (v) Genetic variabiity. The adult population can be divided into two or three groups of arbitrary size with varying susceptibilties to infection. These groups crosscut the sexual orientation groups. A multiplier for the transmissio. rates and a relative size must be specified for each group. Computationally, this creates additional compartments in the model but does not change the basic formulae. (vi) Changes in parameters The model allows changes over time in several parameters. This is accomplished by selecting a date for changes to start and a percentage by which the parameter will rise or fall annually. Changes are allowed in all these parameters: transmission probabilities, sexual behavior, proportion of blood screened, proportion of needles sterilized, proportion using condom, and proportion with genital ulcers. This option allows testing the effects of various interventions, such as those directed towards behavioral change, STD programs, and other medical interventions, lvil SPECIAL ToPic 1: PROJECTNG AIDS MORrALrTy on the spread of HIV (See Bulatao and Bos, 1989b, for an example). (vii) Attraction matrix The basic model assumes proportionate mixing among the relevant subgroups, modified by the frequency with which each subgroup chooses partners. A further modification can be made if one wishes to assume that contact between particular subgroups is more likely than contact between others. An "attraction matrix" is deflned providing weights for the likelihood of contact between every pair of subgroups. These weights are used in calculating the proportion of agents (R) that are infective to a given subgroup. A weight of 2, for instance, implies in effect that members of each of the two subgroups, in looking over possible partners, behave as if there were twice as many members of the other subgroup as there actually are. As with other sexual behavior parameters, the attraction matrix can be input in an unbalanced form, and will be forced into balance, which is accomplished through an iterative process. (viii) Urban-rural differences. By defining additional subgroups and using an attraction matrix, it is possible to run a simulation with separate urban and rural sectors. Each sexual orientation subgroup must be divided into two groups, one rural and one urban. The attraction matrix can then be used to increase likelihood of contact within sectors and reduce contact across sectors. In addition, if the proportion of the population in the urban sector in each year is defined, the model shifts sufficient numbers of people between the parallel subgroups in each sector to meet these figures. Demographic Model The demographic model that is linked to the epidemiological model is a variant of the standard cohort-component model used to produce population projections in the absence of AIDS (See Data and Methds and Hill, 1990). The epidemiological model keeps track of age at death due to AIDS among children. Deaths due to AIDS among adults are distributed across five-year age groups according to an age-sex distnbution provided by the user. These are translated into probabilities of dying, which, because they already exclude mortality from other causes, can be simply added to the life table values that are among the vital rates that drive the demographic model. Some aggregation is necessary because the epidemiological model generates annual estimates, while the demographic model generates quinquennial estimates. Simulations A major obstacle to applying the model to Sub-Saharan countries is the unavailability of data required in the model. This concerns especially the behavioral components affecting the spread of HIV. Other required data, such as transmission rates of the virus, the progression to AIDS and death, and the effects of ulcers and condom use, are to some extent transferable from other settings. To circumvent the data problem, and to reduce the amount of input that would be required to apply the model for each Sub-Saharan country with discernable levels of HIV infection, the relationships between current HIV prevalence and future mortality from AIDS were extracted from a set of simulations produced by running the model with standard parameters for a hypothetical population. Modelling approach The approach followed here involves running the above models many times with varying SPECLAL ToPic 1: PROJECTING AIDS MoirTAulY Ibx values of sexual behavior variables to match arbitrarily fixed levels of HIV prevalence in 1990: low prevalence (1 percent of the adult population), intermediate (3 percent) and high (6 percent). In these simulations, sexual behavior parameters are manipulated to achieve the specifled HIV prevalence, whereas other variables are set at one of three levels. These variables, selected because of their significance in the spread of the virus established in previous applications of the model (See, e.g. Bulatao, 1991) and because of known variations in conditions in Sub-Saharan countries, are: condom use, the prevalence of genital ulcers, and the intensity of blood screening. In addition, three different starting years (1970, 1975, and 1980) for the epidemic were used. The combination of every level of these variables, shown in table SI below, results in a total of 243 simulations, which were run from the start of the epidemic until 2025. Other parameters of the model, such as fertility levels and trends, mortality from other causes, age structure, transmission rates, progression of children and adults from HIV to AIDS and death were selected on the basis of available Information from surveys and surveillance systems in Sub-Sahara African countries (U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1991). Especially useful in establishing parameter values were also "standard parameters" developed for HIV modeling exercises at the United Nations and at Family Health International (United Nations/World Health Organization, 1991; Family Health International, 1991). Table S2 shows a summary of the assumed parameter values used in the simulations. Further assumptions were necessary regarding the course of the epidemic in the future. While intensive efforts to develop a vaccine are reported to be making some progress, at this time it does not appear likely that an effective vaccine will be available in the next few years. Arbitrarily, it is assumed that an effective medical intervention will become available in 2005, and that transmission of the virus resulting in new HIV infections will be cut in half each year thereafter. It is also assumed that there is no interaction between HIV prevalence and fertility, or between AIDS mortality and mortality from other causes (other than that an individual who succumbs to AIDS cannot die of another cause). The evidence of individuals adjusting their fertility behavior based on the prevalence of HIV is very limited, and hypotheses for either an increase and a decrease in overall fertility have been proposed (World Bank, 1990; Ryder et al., 1991). Sunulatin results the simulation output gives projections of HIV prevalence from 1990 to 2025 in the presence of varying levels of the cofactors, and of several resulting mortality indicators. The analysis of the simulation results consists of two steps. First, it is examined how well future HIV prevalence can be predicted from 1990 prevalence in these simulated scenarios. Second, the relationship between HIV prevalence and mortality indicators is examined. As AIDS mortality in Sub-Sahara Africa affects both adults and young children, both the effects of HIV level on future life expectancy at age 10 and on future mortality of children under five are analyzed. Regression analysis is used to establish the relationship between 1990 prevalence and future prevalence, separately for males and females. In order to linearize trends over time in these data, logarithmic transformation of HIV prevalence are used. Table S3 shows the regression coefficients to predict future HIV prevalence from just three variables: 1990 HIV prevalence, 1990 HIV prevalence squared, and the year that the epidemic started. The model fits the data very well, especially early in the projection period, and the R2 never drops below 0.85. bX SPECiAL TOPIC 1: PROJECTING AIDS MORTAUTY Table SI. HIV transmission factors and their values used in simulations Variable Values Starting year of spread of HIV 1970, 1975, and 1980 Condom use low (1%M), medium (2%), and high (3%); increased gradually after 1990 Genital ulcers prevalence medium: 0.001-7.5%, depending on risk subgroup; decreased gradually after 1990 _________ __ high: double the medium value low: half the medium value Blood screening low (5%), medium (10%), high (20%); increased gradually after 1990 Sexual behavior Number of new sexual partners per year varied to achieve 1990 HIV prevalence of 1%, 3%, and 6% Regression analysis is also used to establish the relationships between the level of adult HIV infection and mortality indicators in the future. The effects for adult males and adult females are estimated separately, and the effects on children's mortality is estimated from female infection rates. Table S4 shows regression equations, with life expectancy at age 10 the dependent variable for the equations including HIV prevalence, HIV prevalence squared, and the starting year of the epidemic as independent variables for adults. For children, under-five mortality is the dependent variable, and HIV prevalence for women the only independent variable. Given that these regressions use data generated with simulations, eliminating the effects of extraneous factors, it is not surprising that the R2 values are so high. As stated above, these results apply to a hypothetica! population with overall mortality levels as in Eastern Africa. The equations would underestimate the impact of AIDS in countries with lower mortality from other causes and overestimate the Impact where mortality is higher. Further analysis showed that for the projection purposes, the application of an adjustment factor equal to the squared ratio of a given life expectancy and the hypothetical population's life expectancy would produce consistent results. This adjustment factor is applied to the number of years lost due to AIDS. SPECLAL Topic 1: PROJECTINQ AIDS MoRTALUy bd Application to Sub-Saharmn African countries Data Estimates of HIV prevalence in 1990 for all Sub-Saharan Afican countries were made by Chin (1991) at the World Health Organization, and are summaried in Figure SI. These estimates were for males and females combined; based on the simulations, it is assumed that female HIV prevalence is 1.2 times male prevalence. HIV-1 and HIV-2 have been combined in one overall HIV estimate. Starting years of the epidemic were derived from the U.S. Bureau of the Census' AIDS data base (1990). Figure SI. Percent HIV Seropositive, Adult Population 1990 f -A~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~n IVpoi .,, ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~. la . I 1 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~t fl n lVp dil SPECIAL TopIC 1: PROJECmNG AIDS MoRrAuTy Table S2. Parameter values used In simulations Deiographic variables _ Fortitity Total fertility rate dect rnes from 6.5 during 1985-1995 to 6.2 in 1995-2000, and by 0.6 units thereafter. Age specific fertility pattern like Eastern Africa aggregate. Fertility adjustments No fortility adjustments because of HIV/AIDS are _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ made. Mortality (non-AIDS) Mortality from causes other than AIDS follows Eastern Africa aggregate pattern. Life expectancy gradually increases from 55.6 during 1985-1990 to 68.7 during 2020-2025. Infant mortality declines during the same period from 93 to 34. Mlortality adjustments No interaction between AIDS mortality and mortality | _______ ________________________________ from other causes is assumed. Age structure The 1985 age-sex distribution equals the Eastern Africa aggregate, with 46X below age 15 and 51X ___________________________________ between ages 15 and 65. Trmission rates __ Heterosexual contacts oale to female transmission averages 0.002; female to male, 0.001. Transmission rates vary by duration l_______________________________________ since infection of the infected partner. Homosexual contacts It is assumed that homosexual contacts are insignificant and can be ignored. Blood transfusions Receiving a blood transfusion with infected blood is l_______________________________________ assumed to have a transmission rate of almost 0.999. Injections Receiving an inJection with an infected needle is l_____________________________________ assumed to have a transmission rate of 0.005. Perinatal Perinatal (or vertical) transmission from is assumed to average 0.3. Cofactors: ulcers A multiplicative factor of 40 is applied to transmission rates when a susceptible partner has genital ulcers. Cofactors: condom A multiplicative factor of 0.2 is applied to _ _ __ _ transmission rates when a condom is used. Anal sex effect No adjustment of transmission rates is assumed for either receptive or ifnertive anal sex. _ __1~ Risk group eobershfp ad characteristics _ Risk group maemership: males 30X monogamous; 40X low sexual activity; 20X mediuft sexual activity; 10 high sexual activity Risk group mebership: females 50X monogamous; 30X low sexual activity; 15X percent medium sexual activity; 5X prostitutes New contact frequency: mles Monogamous: 0.05 new contacts per year; low: 2; medium: 15; high: 50. Contact frequencies adjusted in simulations with different HIV prevalence levels SPECIAL ToPic 1: PROJECTINo AIDS MoRTALrrY lxiii New contact frequency: females Monogamous: 0.05 new contacts por year; tow: 2; medium: 5; prostftutes: 200. Contact frequencies adjusted in simulations with different HIV prevalence l _________________________________________ levels Blood transfusions 90X percent never receives a blood transfusion; 8X has 0.1 frequency of receiving blood; 12 has I exposure; 1X has 5 exposures InJections 70X percent receives 0.1 Injections; 10X has I frequency of receiving an injection; 102 has 3 expoures; 102 has 10 exposures Genital ulcers prevalence Medfum value for monogamous males and females: 0.0001; low sexusl activity: 0.0005; medfum sexual activity: 0.02; high sexual actfvity, males: 0.1; female prostitutes: 0.2 Disease progression l Adults: HIV to AIDS Progression follows a logistic curves, with parameters a=2.77, b-O.3. k=O.9. This has a median of 10 years, with 90 percent of those infected ultimately developing AIDS Children: HIV to AIDS Progression follows a logistic curve, with parameters .___ _ __ _ __ __ _ __ _ __ __ _ __ _ au3, b-3. k_ 0.98 Adults: AIDS to death Progression follows a logistic curve, with parameters a=1.5, b=1.5, k0.999 Children: AIDS to death Progression follows a logistic curve, with parameters au4, b=4, k=0.999 Other parameters Random proportion for cofactor group It is assumed that an individual's status on ulcer and condom cofactors is 102 random, in comiparison with their status in the previous year. Random subgroup proportion It is assumed that subgroup membership is 102 random, in comparison with subgroup membership in the previous year Condom-genital ulcers association It is assumed that there is a -0.75 correlation between an individual having genital ulcers and using a condom. Genetic variability No variability in genetic susceptibility to infection l _______________________________________ is assumed. Blood donation propensity Is assumed not to vary by risk group. Attraction matrix Proportionate mixing is assumed IXIV SPECIAL Topic 1: PROJECTING AIDS MORTALnY Table S3. Regressions for HIV prevalence In future years, female and male adults HIV Prevalence (tn) in year Predictor 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 FEMALES Constant -158.50 -250.39 -320.94 -352.79 -380.33 -404.87 -556.77 (3.06) (6.45) (9.22) (10.61) (11.82) (13.20) (31.57) 1990 HIV (In) 1.11 1.18 1.27 1.30 1.33 1.36 1.20 (0.01) (0.02) (0.03) (0.04) (0.04) (0.05) (0.07) 1990 HIV squared (In) -0.06 -0.09 -0.11 -0.11 -0.11 -0.12 0.00 (0.01) (0.01) (0.02) (0.02) (0.03) (0.03) (0.05) Year of start 0.08 0.13 0.16 0.18 0.19 0.20 0.28 (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.02) R2 0.99 0.97 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.86 N-243 MALES Constant -158.36 *251.55 -323.41 -356.36 .385.34 -409.76 -550.86 (3.18) (6.56) (9.33) (10.73) (11.98) (13.23) (31.26) 1990 HIV (In) 1.08 1.14 1.22 1.24 1.28 1.30 1.12 (0.01) (0.02) (0.03) (0.03) (0.04) (0.04) (0.07) 1990 HIV squared (In) -0.05 -0.08 -0.10 0.00 -0.11 -0.12 0.00 (0.01) (0.01) (0.02) (0.02) (0.03) (0.03) (0.04) Year of start 0.08 0.13 0.16 0.18 0.20 0.21 0.28 (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.02) RK 0.99 0.97 0.9f 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.85 U-243 Table S4. Regressions for life expectancy at age 10 and under-live mortality rate Life expectancy at age 10 In period Predictor 1990-95 1995-00 2000-05 2005-10 2010-15 2015-20 2020-25 FEMALES Constant 55.96 58.10 59.06 59.95 61.33 62.73 64.02 (0.02) (0.03) (0.06) (0.07) (0.03) (0.01) (0.06) HIV (In) -0.87 -0.88 -0.97 -1.01 -1.39 -1.74 -1.45 (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.00) (0.08) HIV squered (in) 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 -0.06 (0.00) (0.00) (M.OO) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.02) R2 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.95 MALES Constant 54.59 55.73 56.31 56.77 58.03 59.23 60.30 (0.02) (0.03) (0.14) (0.14) (0.11) (0.08) (0.05) HIV (in) -0.70 -0.88 -0.87 -0.84 -1.19 -1.49 -1.34 (0.01) (0.01) (0.02) (0.02) (0.03) (0.04) (0.07 HIV squared (In) 0.00 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.03 (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.02) R2 0.99 0.95 0.96 0.97 0.97 0.98 0.94 SPECmAL Topic 1: PROJECTING AIDS MORTALrY lKv Table S4, contlnued Under-five mortatity rate In period Predictor 1°90-95 1995-00 2000-05 2005-10 2010-15 Constant 0.104 0.092 0.080 0.068 0.054 (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) HIV 0.004 0.003 0.003 0.002 0.000 (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) Co.000) (0.000) R2 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 Procedures The regression equations estimated above were incorporated into the World Bank's standard procedures for projecting mortality (Bulatao and Bos, 1989a). The procedures were modified as follows: first, the level and pattern of mortality is projected under no-AIDS circumstances, and appropriate Coale-Demeny model life tables are selected. Using adult HIV prevalence in 1990 and an estimated starting year of the epidemic, HIV prevalence in future years is calculated with the regressions in Table S3. Next, years of life expectancy lost due to AIDS mortality of children and adults is calculated with the regressions in Table S4. Finally, the number of years lost, expressed as Coale-Demeny model life table levels, is subtracted from the projected no-AIDS trends until 2020-25, after which mortality recovers gradually to the projected level in 2050 under a no-AIDS situation. Results The estimated impact of AIDS on demographic indicators will be presented for all Sub- Sahara African countries combined and the impact of AIDS on total population will be giv=n for individual countries. Figure S2 shows projected population and Figure S3 the population growth rate for 1985-2020, comparing the revised World Bank projections that incorporate AIDS mortality and previous projections without AIDS mortality, which are otherwise identical. The difference in the number of people is hardly discernable before the end of this decade, but keeps growing and reaches 49 milion in 2020. The difference in the growth rate is at most 0.15 percent. The differences are not only due to AIDS mortality, but also to fewer births resulting from fewer women of reproductive age. The contrast between the AIDS and no-AIDS scenarios is much more pronounced for life expectancy (Figure S4), which immediately shows a lower rate of increase and a divergence of as much as 3.5 years. Figure S5 shows the number of deaths due to AIDS, added to deaths from other causes. At its peak, AIDS adds 1.3 million deaths annually to the 9.5 million deaths from other causes. Long-term implications of the HIV/AIDS epidemic are shown in Figures S6 and S7. Life expectancy is assumed to recover fully to the no-AIDS levels by 2050; total population, will, ceterisparibus, never catch-up with the population projected in the no-AIDS scenario. Such long-term projections are, of course, much more dependent on the assumptions made regarding the future course of the epidemic and the effectiveness of interventions than are projections for the short-term. Table S5 shows the percentage difference in projected population in AIDS and no-AIDS scenarios for aUl countries of Sub-Saharan Africa for 2000, 2020, and 2050. The mean difference in 2000 is 0.8 percent, in 2020, 3.2 percent, and in 2050, 5.2 percent. bXvi SP sIoL ToPic 1: PRWECTING AIDS MORTALrY Figure S2. Total Population Cbillions) 8i4. Saharan Africa, 1985.2020 1.3 12.2 '1.1 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 E ' . 199S 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 a ND AIDS + AIDS Figure S3. Population Growth Pate C%) Sih-Sahar.n Africa, 1985-2020 3.1 3 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 1985-90 1990-95 1995-00 2000-05 2005-10 2010-15 2015-20 O No AIDS + AIDS SPEcIAL ToPic 1: PROJECTING AIDS MORTALITY btvil Figure S4. Life Expectancy Cyears) Sekharan Africa, 198-220 63 62 61 s0 59 so 57 58 54 53 52 15-90 1990-9S 19500 2000-05 2005-10 2010-15 2015-20 0 No AIDS + AIDS Figure S5. Annual Deaths Cmillions) Su.C-Satirrsn Africa. 1985-2020 11 10 9 a 7 4 lIeS-S0 1990-95 1995-00 2000-05 2005-10 2010-15 2015-20 bcvIi; SPECIAL Topic 1: PROJECnNG AIDS MORrALrY Figure S6. Total Population Cbillions) Sub-Saharan Africa, 1985-2150 3.2 3 2.8 2.6 2.4 2 i.e 1.6 1.4 1.2 0.8 0.4 3.4 k9bt2bO 1 2d20 *%A2d40 1 20b 1% 20o 321b0 I 2120 l21'40 0.4 2010 0 2 20 2 0 2110 22 0 21 No AIDS + AIDS Figure S7. Life expectancy Cyears) StIS,a5heran Ar Ica. 1985-2150 90l-0 205W 290 223 so N 75 70 65 so 53 50 I- ligiso 20L 0 22-30 204-SO 2 204-)Wj90 20 10 211.30 21 50 o NDAIDS + AIDS SPECLAL TOPIC 1: PROJECmNG AIDS MORTALrrY bxi Table S5. Percentage difference in population, AIDS and no-AIDS scenarios 2000 2020 2050 2000 2020 2050 Angola 0.2 1.6 3.5 Malawi 2.0 7.8 12.3 Benin 1.2 6.0 8.6 Mali 0.1 1.2 2.8 Botswana 0.1 0.8 1.2 Mauritania 0.3 1.7 3.9 Burkina Faso 0.5 3.0 5.2 Mauritius 0.0 0.4 0.9 Burundi 1.9 7.1 10.8 Mozambique 1.2 4.5 7.2 Cameroon 0.3 2.1 3.5 Namibia 0.5 2.3 3.1 Cape Verde 0.4 1.7 2.3 Niger 0.2 1.6 3.8 Centr. Af. R. 2.0 7.4 10.4 Nigeria 0.3 1.6 2.6 Chad 0.0 0.6 2.0 Reunion 0.0 0.0 0.0 Comoros 0.0 0.0 0.0 Rwanda 1.9 7.5 12.1 Congo 1.3 4.7 7.3 Sao Tome 0.0 0.0 0.0 Cote Dllvoire 1.7 6.2 9.3 Senegal 0.1 1.6 3.1 DJibouti 0.3 1.8 3.6 Seychelles 0.0 0.0 0.0 Eq. Guinea 0.4 1.9 3.2 Sierra Leone 0.3 1.8 3.6 Ethiopia 0.2 1.4 3.2 Somalia 0.8 3.7 7.0 Gabon 0.3 1.7 4.0 South Africa 0.1 0.6 0.8 Ganbia 0.4 2.6 5.1 Sudan 0.3 2.1 3.9 Ghana 0.2 1.4 2.6 Swazitand 0.1 1.0 1.9 Guinea 0.2 1.7 3.8 Tanzania 1.7 6.8 10.6 Guinea-Bissau 2.1 7.6 11.1 Togo 0.4 2.4 4.3 Kenya 0.7 3.6 5.7 Uganda 2.6 10.0 14.9 Lesotho 0.0 0.3 0.8 Zaire 1.1 4.6 7.0 LIberia 0.4 1.9 2.9 Zambfa 4.7 14.9 20.6 Madagascar 0.1 0.8 1.7 Zimbabwe 2.8 7.6 9.1 Conclusions While the impact of AIDS on population could certainly be more severe than shown here, especially if various conditions conducive to the spread of HIV would prevail, the results indicate that even in severely affected countries population growth is likely to continue at high levels. Short-term effects were shown to reverse gains made in life expectancy over the past decades and to increase the crude death rate, but not to an extent that population growth is reduced by more than 0.5 percent in the countries with the highest infection levels. It must be stressed that many parameter estimates for model variables are based partly on conjecture rather than on empirical data. While the model has been used to effectively simulate the spread of the epidemic from its start in the early 1970s to the presence (See, e.g. World Bank, forthcoming), there is no guarantee that the same parameters will hold in the future. Further uncertainty is introduced by the unknowable future course of the epidemic, which in this analysis is assumed to be drastically reduced after 2005. As with most projections, the short-term effects are accompanied by much less uncertainty than the longer range projections. In the case of HIV/AIDS, with its long incubation period, mortality in the next several years is mostly the result from infections that occurred in the past 10 or so years. If an estimate of HIV prevalence is available, projections of mortality from AIDS should be quite reliable. The more difficult part is clearly projecting the spread of HIV, as this is subject to behavior that does not lend itself to easy inquiry. boc SPECUL ToPic 1: PROJECTING AIDS MORTALy References Bulatao, Rodolfo A. 1991. wThe Bulatao Approach: Projecting the Demographic Impact of the HIV Epidemic Using Standard Parameters.' Chapter X in: United Nations/World Health Organizadon (1991) The AIDS Epidemic and its Demographic Consequences. New York and Geneva. Bulatao, Rodolfo A. and Eduard Bos. 1989a. Projecting MortaliyforAll Countries. Policy, Planning, and Research Working Papers, No. 337. Population and Human Resources Department, The World Bank. Bulatao, Rodolfo A. and Eduard Bos. 1989b. Implcadons of Control Measures for the Spread of HIV Infecton. Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America, New Orleans, April 1989. Bulatao, Rodolfo A and Eduard Bos. 1992. Projechng the Demographic Impact of AIDS. Policy Research Working Paper WPS 941. Chin, James. 1991. Fonnal estimates of 1990 seroprevalence, Sub-Saharan Africa. Unpublished Manuscript. Hill, Kenneth. 1990. PROJ3S - A Computer Program for Population Projectons. Washington, DC: The World Bank. Ryder, Robert W. et al. 1991. 'Fertility rates in 238 HIV-1 seropositive women in Zaire followed for 3 years post-partum.' AIDS 5,12:1521-1526. United Nations end World Health Organization. 1991. The AIDS Epidemic and its Demographic Consequences. New York and Geneva. United States, Bureau of the Census. Recent HIV Seroprevalence Levels by Country: September 1990. Research Notes No. 2, Health Studies Branch, Center for International Research. World Bank. 1990. Seminar on AIDS and Population Policy, August 28, 1990 (Background materials). Washington, DC: The World Bank. World Bank. Forthcoming. The Socioeconomic Impact of AIDS in Uganda. Washington, DC: The World Bank. SPECIAL TOPIC 11: DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS IN FORMER SOVIET-UNION Lxxi SPECIAL TOPIC H: DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS IN THE REPUBLICS OF THE FORMER U.S.S.R. Since the previous edition of World Population Projections was issued, the U.S.S.R. has dissolved and become fifteen separate countries for which individual projections are provided in this volume for the first time. The demographic situation in these countries is quite diverse as a result of past differences in vital rates and migration, and their demographic prospects are consequently very different as well. This section focusses on the recent demographic history of and prospects for the former Soviet Republics, which, because they constituted one country, has not been presented before. Populatton growth and dtrnibuton Of the fifteen countries, the largest is the Russian Federation with over half of the population of the former Soviet Union, as is shown in Figure SI. The next largest are, in order, the Ukraine, Uzbeklstan, Kazakhstan, and Belarus. The other ten countries contain only 12 percent of the total population of the former Soviet Union. Thus, while the Russian Federation is by far the largest country of Europe, most of the former Soviet republics resemble many other countries in the region in the size of the total population. Land areas of the countries vary even more widely than population totals; as a result, population densities are very uneven, ranging from 129 persons per square kilometer in Moldova, to &7 persons per square kilomneter in the Russian Federation, which includes the vast and sparsely populated Siberian regions. Figure Sl. Composition of the Former Soviet Union Latvlo CO.91) Ukr& Inn C I7.m d w Arnonis C1.1% || Kazakhstan C5.0 i _ -_ l R~~~~~~~uss laon Fed . C5 t. 25) Azerbaijan I J on C 2.C5 Georgia C1.9x) Kyrgyzatan C1.5W) Turk*nnlstan C / Lithuania ( mIoasova C 150\ / TaJ lk stan C t.9 8Blarus C.i)_ Uxbilklet2cnao5) bodi SPECIAL Topic II: DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS IN FORMER SOVET-UNION FPgure S2. Population Growth Rates, 1990 Figure S2 compares annual *'M - population growth rates for the period 0.. | ... 1990-94. Five countries have growth rates over 1 percent, whereas most of the other countries' growth rates hover around 0.5 percent per year. These rates show a clear geographic pattern, with the Central Asian countries mostly having high growth rates. Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Azerbaijan, which together have only 14 percent of the population of the former Soviet Union account for 40 percent of the increase in population in all fifteen countries. One consequence Figure S3. TFR in Former Soviet-Union Republics of the differences in growth rates is that the composition of the region will gradually change. For example, the share of the Russian Federation of the region's total will drop from just over 51 percent now to 47 percent by 2025. Fertlity The main reason for the differences in population growth rates is the variation in fertility. Figure S3 compares the TFR in 1992 for al 15 countries. Figures S4 and S5 show trends in the TFR from 1960 to 1990. Two sets of countries can clearly be Figure 84. Trends in TFR, low fertility countries distinguished: those with high and medium-high fertility (Figure S5) and those with fertility near replacement (Figure S4). For most of the high and medium high-fertility countries, trends since 1980 are generally downwards, . 'Uu.w although at a slow rate. The low fertility countries have been mostly . ~ stable at low levels since the 1960s. An exception is Armenia, which joined the low fertility countries only in the mid- 1970s. SPEcIAL ToPic 11: DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS IN FORMER SOVIET-UNION blxiii Figure SS. Trends in TFR: high fertility countries ______________ _____________M ortali*y . Differences in life expectancy are not as pronounced as those for fertility and population growth. Figure S6 . shows estimated 1992 life expectancy . (male and female) from the Soviet Union average for each country. Belarus is highest, with a life expectancy that is two years higher, and Turkmenistan stands out with a life 0 f- * W a- ^1l| expectancy five years below the Soviet Union average. Recent trends in life expectancy for males are shown in Figures S7 and S8. As with fertility, Figure S6. Difference in e(0) from USSR average clear geographic patterns are noticeable, with lower life expectancies for the Central Asian countries. Life expectancy increased in most countries by one to two years during the 1980s although there was a sizable one-time drop in Armenia's level attributable to the 1988 earthquake. One of the more remarkable demographic features of some of the former Soviet republics is the large differences between male and to _. A w d,, a I, LA, ^ ^ *female life expectancy (Figures S9 and S10), reaching a high of 10.5 years in Russia -- the highest observed difference in the world. These disparities between male and female life Figure S7. Trends in e(O) expectancy are probably due to greater alcohol and cigarette consumption by n men (Dutton 1981). Although infant mortality increased i , 1 somewhat during the 1970's (possibly due to improved reporting), it has been decreasing over the last decade for all of the countries. However, considerable diversity still exists in the * . . . . . . Y rates which are higher in the Central * n * * a* * 7 * n * Asian countries and lower in most of C ~Ie * *~~ C trth a ttt C *~*0 Itthe other countries. The infant mortality rates range from 54 in Turkmenistan to 15 in the Ukraine and Belarus. bodV SPECiAL Topic II: DEMOGRAPHIC TRENos IN FORMER SOVIET-UNION Figure S8. Trends in e(O) Migration 7, .. Internal migration played ap 72 important role in the spatial distribution of the population of the Soviet Union. Government policies aimed at balancing requirements for labor and population; however, they were only partly successful. In the r .,? . * 1960s, efforts to settle outlying areas in '° 3 - " "'7 " " " " " Siberia were largely ineffective, while 0 A~IJ- + Wf4a ,"7 the Central Asian republics, which already had a labor surplus, continued to attract more migrants. In the 1970s, however, there was significant change Figure S9. Differences between male and female e(O) in the direction of interregional la ________________________ migration trends (Zayanchkovskaya, 1991). Western Siberia started to experience a large influx of population, and the Central Asian republics began to have large migration deficits. These trends continued in the 1980s. The E , == aS North-Western and Central regions (Moscow and St. Petersburg and their districts) attracted large number of migrants throughout the period. o 0;i- . e UU4U * _ jm164 ,. ..i.x _ Several factors are conducive for intensified migration in the 1990s. The change to a market economy, which is likely to result in differentials in wages Figure S10. Differences between male and female e(O) and employment opportunities, wil create labor markets witi. strong incentives to move to the economically more developed countries. Past migration trends have led to e . & : considerable ethnic diversity ir some of the countries, whereas others have remained more homogeneous. Over 25 million Russians live outside the country in other former Soviet Union republics, while Armenia's population is 93 percent ethnic Armenians o 9-.~. * * - ~,* , (Scherbov and. Andreev, 1992). The consequences of ethnic dispersion for future wi.gration flows are hard to anwicipate; at its worse, it could SPECIAL ToPic II: DEMOGRAPHIC TRENOS IN FORMER SOVIET-UNION bocv result in substantial refugee flows when ethnic frictions erupt, as in the Armenia-Azerbaijani conflict. Full freedom of movement was restricted in the former Soviet Union; to what extent new migration policies wili limit the movement of people among the new countries remains to be seen. In addition to economic, ethnic, and political factors, natural and environmental disasters may increase future migration. The Chernobyl nuclear accident has caused large outmigration In the areas of the Ukraine, Belarus, and Russia most affected by contamination. References Dutton, John C Jr. 1981. *Causes of Soviet Adult Mortalty Increases". Soviet Studies, Vol 33, No 4: 548-559. Scherbov, Sergei, and Evgeniy Andreev. 1992. 'Population Prospects for the Republics of the Former USSR." Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America, Denver, April 30-May 2, 1992. Zayanchkovskaya, Zh. A. 1991. 'Inter-Republic Population Migration in the USSR.' SuUdies on Soviet Economic Development, Vol 2, No 3:228-242. lxxvi DATA AND METHODS DATA AND MEODS The data used in each projection include base-year (mid-1985) total population estimates and age structures by sex, and base-period (1985-90) mortality, fertility and migration rates. The data, their sources and how they are derived when insufficient information is available, will be described in this section. The sources of each country's base data can be found in Table A3. Data Population and age-sex structure Estimates of the mid-1985 populations are obtained from the most recent reliable sources. When possible, these estimates are obtained from recent census totals piojected to mid-1985, after adjustments have been made for under- or over-reporting. Provisional census figures that have not been evaluated are not used. A major source of adjusted census figures is the U.N. Population Division. Other sources include the U.S. Bureau of the Census, Eurostat and, for the former Soviet countries, the U.S.S.R. census publications. When no recent census figures are available, official estimates are often adopted, frequently as reported by the U.N. Statistical Office in Population and Vital Statistics Report. In addition, base-year population estimates may be obtained through projections of past census results with fertility, mortality, and migration rates from vital registration or surveys. Age-sex structures are distributions of the population by age and sex. As is the case for total population, the U.N. Population Division provides many of the age-sex structures, which generally are census age structures adjusted for age-misreporting or estimations using stable population analysis when necessary. Other sources include World Bank and official estimates from recent censuses and projections from earlier censuses. Estimates based on a more recent census generally provide more reliable information than estimates constructed through projections from earlier censuses. However, some European countries have not had a census in decades, but maintain very accurate demographic intelligence through population- and vital registers. Most other countries lack complete regstration systems and rely on cersuses, usually taken ten years apart, often supplemented with intercensal surveys. Figure Al summarizes the currentness of census counts. Mortality data Base-period mortality levels in the projections are indicated by life-expectancies at birth by sex and infant mortality rates for both sexes combined. Life expectancies for the quinquennia 1975- 80, 1980-85 and 1985-90 were obtained from a variety of sources, with the U.N. Population Division being the most frequent one. Others are based on estimates published in Population and Vra Statistics Report, DHS reports, statistical yearbooks, census publications, World Bank reports, Eurostat (1991), Monnier and Guibert-Lantoine (1991) and the U.S. Bureau of the Census. In cases where data are not available for the desired quinquennium, or give indices other than life expectancies, some estimation and projection is then necessary to obtain the right index Further detail about the construction of current mortality estimates may be found in Bos et aL (1992). Infant mortality rates, like life expectancies, are taken from a variety of sources. A frequently used source is the U.N. 1990 World Population Prospects. Other sources include surveys, DATA AND METHoos bomil Figure Al Distribution of countries by year of latest census 100 90 70 or - 90o oe 17-99 t8-18 95o ae so 70 0 40- 30- 20- 10 0 N Before 1970 or none 1970- 1979 1980- 19e4 1985 or later censuses, offlcial estimates, USBOC, Eurostat and World Bank estimates. The mortality risk for children under age 5 for the current period is deriv'i from a model described below. Earlier estimates are often taken from the U.N. publication Mortality of Children Under Age 5. Ferility data Total fertility rates are derived from similar sources as mortality rates, including the U.N.'s World Population Prospects 1990, surveys, censuses, and the U.S. Bureau of the Census. The DHS survey are a particularly useful source of data. Other sources include official estimates, Bank estimates, and Eurostat. Because fertility rates are not always available for the specified period or are in terms of another parameter such as the crude birth rate, total fertility rates are sometimes obtained by projections of earlier estimates or approximated using available data on age-sex structure and age- specific fertility. Migration Data Estimates of rn,,t international migration are obtained from a variety of sources including statistics from national immigration agencies, statistical organizations, official sources, interagency task forces and research institutions. Arnold (1989) compiled all these data. Updates of this information have been made as more data has become available. In developing these estimates, migrants are considered persons who have resided in countries different from their previous residence for at least a year or who are believed Ukely to remain permanently in receiving countries. Persons are not counted as migrants when they are refugees living in officially designated camps. Only net estimates are made by quinquennium; immigration and emigration are not estimated separately, and single-year figures were not assessed. lXViii DATA AND METHODS Projection methodology Population projections were run using the cohort-component method on microcomputers with the software package, PROJ3L (A similar program, PROJ3S, is described in Hill (1990), the only difference being that this program allows for 75-year projections rather than long-term projections shown here. The assumptions about future trends in vital rates will be discussed in this section. Projecting Mortality The procedures used to project mortality were developed from analysis of trends in life expectancy and infant mortality in available national data. (See Bulatao et al., 1989). These projections utilize extended life tables (see Coale and Guo, 1989) with maximum male and female life expectancy assumed to be 83.3 and 90 years, respectively. These maxima were revised upward in 1991 because previously used maxima are now barely above the currently estimated levels for the lowest mortality countries. Life expectancy In Japan, for instance, is estimated at 75.6 for males and 81.4 for females - only slightly below the previously used maxima. Research into the consequences of controlling major risk factors has found that thereotically much higher life expectancies are attainable. Bourgeois-Pichat, in an attempt to estimate the effect on the life span of eliminating wexogenous" causes of death, obtained a maximum life expectancy of 76.3 for males and 78.2 for females. In 1978, he revised the limit, putting life expectancy for males slightly lower at 73.8 years and that for females higher, at 80.3 years (barely above the current estimates for Norway). Manton (1986) showed that an increase in life expectancy of 12.3 to 12.8 years in the expectation of life at age 30 years was possible with effective control of major risk factors. Even if no changes in mortality under 30 occurred this would result in an increase in male life span to above 81 years. On the basis of this evidence and given the long range nature of these projections a higher maximum life span was considered appropriate. Fuhue trends in fife expectancy at bb*d Life expectancy is projected from year 0 to year t using a logistic function over time of the form et = ko + k /{1 + exp [logit(e0) + rtl}, with logit(e.) = log, [(ko + k - e.) / (e0 - ko)j. Logistic functions are used because these flt past trends best, country by country. The schedules of medium change in life expectancy and infant mortality reflect median trends across countries, and the schedules for minimum and maximum change reflect the 10th and 90th percentile when country trends are ranked from slowest to fastest. The equations to predict short-term trends in life expectancy and infant mortality were estimated using these data; other socioeconomic factors, like per capita income, did not improve prediction. The logistic function is set to rise most rapidly from a level of 50 years or so and increasingly slowly at higher levels. The minimum (kI) for the logistic functions for both sexes is assumed to be 20 years, and the maxima (ko + k) are assumed to be 90 years for females and 833 years for males. The rate of change (r) for the logistic function is allowed to vary across countries, and for a given country to vary over time. For the fist quinquennium (1985-90), the rate of change (r1) is estimated from the rate of change in the previous quinquennium (ro) and from the female secondary enrolment ratio (s.), DATA AND METHODS babe using the equations = .00379 + .723 ro .000254 so for females, and .01159 + .885 ro - .000318 so for males. Percent urban Is used in a few cases, with a different equation (see Bulatao et al., 1989), where secondary enrolment is not available, and in fewer cases still the rate of change in the previous decade is used instead of the rate of change in the previous quinquennium when the latter appears to have been affected by exceptional circumstances. Limits are imposed on the rate of change for the flrst quinquennium (and for all other quinquennia), such that it cannot be greater than -.017 (which would give slow mortality decline) or less than -.053 (which would give rapid mortality decline). For the second quinquennium, the rate of change is estimated as a function of the rate of change for the flrst quinquennium: r2 -0.007 + 0.7 rl. The rate of change for the third Table Al Assumed annual increments to life expectancy quinquennium is estimated from the rate of change for the second quinquennium in the Initial Males Females same manner. This equation Lifexpec allows rates of change to expec- tancy Minfium Mediun Maximaun Nininun Nediun Naximun converge toward the uniform pattern imposed for subsequent quinquennia. 40 0.14 0.34 0.55 0.14 0.36 0.58 45 0.15 0.38 0.61 0.16 0.40 0.65 Forthesesubsequent s5 0.16 0.39 0.63 0.17 0.43 0.69 quinquennia for all countries, 60 0.15 0.37 0.59 0.17 0.43 0.68 the rate of change in life 65 0.13 0.32 0.52 0.16 0.40 0.69 expectancy is constant at -.035 70 0.10 0.26 0.42 0.14 0.36 0 57 forbothsexes. Atthis rate, the 75 0.07 0.18a 0.28 0.12 0.27 0.47 80 0.03 0.08 0.12 0o09 0.21 0.34 annual increments to life 85 -- - 0.05 0.11 0.18 expectancyvarybyinitial levels as indicated by the medium pattern in Table Al. Minimum and maximum increments corresponding tO the slow and rapid limits imposed on rates of change in the frst three quinquennia are also shown. Future trends in infant mortalty. Infant mortality is projected using a similar logistic function. The rate of change for each of the first three quinquennia is obtained from the equation r, = .0275 + .5 r,.,. with the restriction that this rate must be in the range [.024, .1301. These limits provide schedules of minimum and maximum annual decrements to infant mortality, varying by the initial rate, shown in Table A2. A set of medium decrements is also provided, representing the typical schedule of improvements toward which rates of change converge when the preceding equation is applied successively. A minimum attainable level of infant mortality of 3 per thousand was used instead of the previously assumed 6 per thousand. This level is roughly equivalent to the level attainable under l0xx DATA AND METHODS Table A Assumedannaldecrements the extended life expectancy assumptions employed. Table A2 Assumed annual decrements to infant mortality rate Selection of life tables. Initial infant Those life tables are selected from mortality the Coale-Demeny models (Coale and Demeny 1983) rate Mininuun Medf Lsn Maxln.si that provide the projected life expectancy and infant iSO 0.83 2.08 4.02 mortality rates for the first three quinquennia. First, 150 0.8932 2.32 4.47 a level of the life tables is chosen to give the desired 130 1.00 2.50 4.81 infant mortality rate (interpolation is used if 120 1.13 2.63 5.03 necessary). Mortality rates up to age 14 are taken 110 1.16 2.69 5.15 from this life table. Second, another level of the life 100 1.16 2.71 5.16 90 1.14 2.66 5.07 table is chosen to give rates for ages 15 and older 80 1.10 2.56 4.86 such that the desired level of life expectancy is 70 1.03 2.41 4.56 obtained. Among the four Coale-Demeny families 60 0.93 2.20 4.16 50 0.81 1.94 3.65 (North, South, East, and West), that family is chosen 40 0.67 1.62 3.05 which minimizes the divergence between the two 30 0.50 1.26 2.35 chosen levels. 20 0.31 0.84 1.56 10 0.09 0.36 0.68 For subsequent quinquennia, only life expectancy is used in determining levels, and the West family is used consistently. Survivorship ratios from these model life tables were specified for the first three quinquennia and for 2025-30, 2050-55, and 2100-05. The projection program used, ProjPC-II (Hill, forthcoming ), was allowed to interpolate linearly for intervening periods, to facilitate a smooth transition across life table families where this was necessary. Projectingferity Future fertility trends are specified by quinquennial total fertility and by a year when the net reproduction rate reaches unity, i.e., when the average woman's fertility results in exactly replacing herself. (This is referred to here as the replacement year.) Separate procedures are applied for three stages of the fertility transition: the pretransition stage, when fertility is high and sustained fertility decline has not started; the transition stage, when fertility is high to medium and sustained fertility decline is in progress; and the late-transition and posttransition stage. We discuss procedures for determining total fertility in each stage and then explain what age-specific patterns of fertility were applied. For current purposes, a fertility transition is assumed to have started if a country has experienced a drop in total fertility of at least .5 points over any five-year period, or if total fertility is already below 4.5 after a more gradual decline (Bulatao and Elwan 1985). The pretransition stage is the stage before any such decline is evident. The late-transition and posttransition stage is defined by a total fertility rate one point above replacement level (about 3.15) or lower. Countries in the pretransition stage are assumed to start a fertility transition in the quinquennium after combined male and female life expectancy reaches 50 years, but in no case later than 2005. The life expectancy threshold is slightly lower than the threshold of 53 years previously shown to be a universal precondition, though not a sufficient condition, for the start of fertility transition (Bulatao and Elwan 1985). Until a transition starts, total fertility is assumed to be constant. The one exception is where sterility is a significant factor; sterility is then assumed to decline linearly DATA AND METHODS b to 6 peremnt over three quinquennia, with each percentage point drop in sterility raising total fertility by .11 points (Frank 1983). In the transition stage, the rate of fertility decline is based on the rate in the preceding quinquennium, assuming transition had already started in that period. With previous annual change represented by DTR, annual change during the transition is set at (-.05 + .5 DrpR). However, limits are set on this change: it must be at least -.073 points and at most -.210 points, which may be taken to define slow and rapid fertility decline. (Previous analysis in Bulatao and Elwan 1985 defined rapid decline as an annual total fertility change of -.2164 points, which is consistent.) If the formula does not apply because transition has just started, an average annual decline in total fertility of .06 points for the first five year of the transition and 0.12 annually for subsequent quinquennia is imposed. In the early part of the transition stage, the sterility adjustment is applied if appropriate to raise total fertilty slightly. In the late-transition and posttransition stage, fertility approaches replacement level, either from slightly above or slightly below it. Four alternative patterns: * Generally, a geometric function is imposed on total fertility decline from one point above replacement level to replacement level, with this decline assumed to take 15 years. i Where total fertility has shown unusually slow decline, it is assumed to take 20 rather than 15 years for total fertility to fall one point to replacement. * Where, toward the end of a fertility transition, total fertility is still recording rapid decUnes even though it is close to or even below replacement level (2.25 to 1.75), it is assumed to fall further for one period, generally going below replacement, to stay constant in the next period, and then to return to replacement. * Where the transition has been completed and total fertility is below replacement, it is assumed to stay at the current level for two quinquennia, and then to return gradually to replacement, along a lnear path, by 2030. In applying late-transition procedures, the level of total fertility that provides replacement is approximated by a quadratic formula based on female life expectancy (e(fl) in the replacement year: TFRNRR.I = 6.702 - .1107 e(g) + .0006592 e(u. The replacement year is first approximated in order to determine life expectancy and then calculated given this formula and whichever pattern of fertility change above is appropriate. For all stages of fertility transition, the age pattern of fertility is deLermined in the same fashion, depending on the level of total fertility (Figure A2). Two basic schedules of age-specific fertility are defined: for total fertility levels greater than six and for total fertility levels of three and lower. In between, age patterns are obtained by interpolation between the two schedules. At a total fertility level of six, a greater proportion of-births are at younger and older ages of the reproductive span, and the mean age of childbearing is 2&9 years. At a total fertility level of three, births are concentrated in a narrower band of ages, and the mean age of childbearing is 28.0. These procedures were developed from preliminary analysis of total fertility trends in cross-national data (See Bos and Bulatao 1989). In the pretransition stage, countries showed mostly stable fertility. The transition stage was more interesting. Across 42 countries which started a fertility transition between 1955 and 1983, the average annual decline in total fertility ranged from 0.06 to 0.25 bxodi DATA AND METHoDs Figure A2. Percentage of Total Fertility Assigned to Different Ages, by Level of Total Fertility 20- .> 2o4 22 4 s 4 44 '4- 20 10U ¶4 points. Countries wlich had initial sharp declines in fertility tended to continue decHning rapidly, while those that started with more gradual declines continued along the same path. Rapid and slow decline vwere AfoUnd in all regions. 'Me rate of decline was predicted best by the rate in preceding periods; socioeconomic factors added little to this prediction. Other than the mortality threshold, socioeconomic factors also failed to predict the start of fertility transition. Projecging Migration E!stimates of future net migrants by quinquennium up to the year 2000 are those prepared by Arnold (1989) as part of an examination of data and sources. These estimates are strongly affected by official policies and plans in the major receiving countries. Ile flgures were designed to total zero in each quinquennium for the whole %,. Id. After the year 2000, the number of net migrants is assumed to approach zero linearly in eacl country, at the estimated rate of change in their number from the period 1990 95 to the period 1995-2000, or at a rate that would make their number zero by 2025-30, whichever rate is faster. Fcir these later periods, a zero total for worldwide net international migration was obtained by adjusting initial estimates of net migrants in three maJor receiving countries--the United States, Australia, and C:anada-upward or downward as necessary by a proportion constant acrcss these countries, but varying by quinquennium. These adjustments were of I or 2 percent for the earlier periods, negligible compared to the volume of migration assumed for these countries, but were up to 10 percent for later periods. 'Me age-sex distributions of migrants are determined from alternative models based on their sex ratios. If migration is beavily male, migrants are assumed to be concentrated in the age group 15-30, with few children and elderly. If migration is more balanced between males and females, proportionally more migrants are assumed to be children and elderly (Hill, 1990). DATA AND METHODS boociii bOO(IV DATA AND METHODS Table A3 Sourms Country, economy, or territory TotaL population, mid-1985 Total fertility, 1985-90 Afghanistan Bank est. U.N. 1990 revision Albania Official est. (UNPVSR 7/86) I.N.E.D., 1991 Algeria Bank est., from official 1/85 est. From Bank sector report 6/88 est. Angola U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. Antigua and U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. from official CBR Barbuda Argentina U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) Armenia Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1979 and 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 census report censuses Australia Official est. (UNPVSR 4/87) Bank est. from official COR (UNPVSR 10/88) Austria Official est. (UNPVSR 7/86) Bank est. based on Monier, 1988 Azerbaijan Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1979 and 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 census report censuses Bahamas, The Official est. (UNDY 1988) Bank est. from official CBR (UNPVSR 10/90) Bahrain Official est. (CentraL Stat. Org, Bahrain) Official est. (Central Stat. Org, Bahrain) Bangladesh Bank est. from 1979 and 1989 censuses Bank est. from 1989 Fertility Survey Barbados Official est. (UNPVSR) Bank est. from official CBR Belarus Official est. (UNDY 1989) Official est. (UNDY 1989 and UNPVSR 10/91) BeLgitin Eurostat, 1989 Eurostat, 1990 Belize Official est. (UNPVSR 7/86) Bank est., based on U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1985 Benin Bank projection from 1979 census Bank est. from 1961 survey and WFS Bhutan Official est. (Stat. Handbook of Bhutan, 1985) U.N. 1990 revision Bolivia U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) Botswana Bank projection from 1981 census Bank est. from 1988 DHS Brazil U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. based on official CBR and 1990 population Brunei Bank est. from 1981 census and 1986 official Bank est., based on official CBR (UNPVSR 10/90) est. Bulgaria Bank est. from 1985 census (UNPVSR 7/91) Monnier, 1991 Burkina Faso Bank est. from 1985 census (UNPVSR 7/91) U.N. 1990 revision Burundi Bank projection from 1979 census U.N. 1990 revision Cambodia U.N. 92 revision. (prelim.) U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) Cameroon Bank est. from 1976 and 1987 censuses and 1991 DHS official 1987 est. Canada Official est. (UNDY 1988) Official est. (Stat. Canada) Cape Verde U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. Central African U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. Rep. Chad U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Channel Islands Bank est. from 1981 and 1986 censuses Bank est. from officiel CBR (UNPVSR 7/91) Chile U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) China (excl. Bank est. from official year-end est. (State Bank est. from 1987 Demographic Survey and Taiwan) Statistical Bureau, 1990) 1990 census Colombia U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) Comoros Bank projection from 1980 census, excl. Mayotte From Bank sector report est. Congo, People's Bank projection from 1984 census Official est. (Ministry of Econ. Planning) Rep. of the Costa Rica Official est. (Direccion General de Estadistica U.N. 1990 revision y Censos) Cote dlivoire U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) 1988 census Croatia Official est. (Statistical Office, Belgrade Bank est. from official est. (Stat. Office, 1988) Belgrade, 1988) DATA AND METHODS bocxv of Population Data Country, economy, or Life expectancy, 1985-90 Infant mortality, 1985-90 Age-sex structure, 1990 territory U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. Afghanistan Monnier, 1991 Official est. (UNPVSR 10/89-7/91) U.N. 1990 revision Albania U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Algeria U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Angola Bank est. from official CDR Bank est. based on official est. Bank est. from UNDY 1978 Antigua and Barbuda U.N. 1992 revision (prelim) U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) U.N. 1900 revision. Argentina Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Armenia census report census report census report U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Australia Bank est. from official CDR Official est. (UNPVSR 7/91) U.N. 1990 revision Austria Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Azerbaijan census report census report census report Bank est. from official CDR Official est. (UNPVSR 10/91) U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) Bahamas, The (UNPVSR 10/90) Bank est. from official 1986 est. Official est. (Central Stat. U.N. 1990 revision Bahrain (Central Stat. Org., Bahrain) Organization, 10/89) U.N. 1990 revision Official est. (Bureau of Stat.) U.N. 1990 revision Bangladesh U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) U.N. 1990 revision Barbados Official est. (UNDY 1989) Official est. (UNDY 1989) Official est. (UNDY 1989) Belarus Eurostat, 1990, 1991 Eurostat, 1990, 1991 Eurostat, 1989 Belgiun Bank est., based on U.S. Bureau Bank est., based on U.S. Bureau Bank est. from UNDY 1978 Belize of the Census, 1985 of the Census, 1985 Bank est. based on WFS Bank est. from WFS Bank est. from 1979 census Benin U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Bhutan U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) U.N. 1990 revision Bolivia Bank est. based on 1988 DHS Bank est. from 1988 DHS U.N. 1990 revision Botswana U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Brazil Bank est. based on official est. Bank est. from official est. Bank est. from 1981 census Brunei U.N. 1990 revision Official est. (UNPVSR 7/91) U.N. 1990 revision Bulgaria U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. Burkina Faso U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Burundi U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Cambodia Bank est. from WFS U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. from 1976 census Cameroon Official est. (Stat. Canada) Official est. (UNPVSR 7/91) Official est. (Stat. Canada) Canada U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1290 revision U.N. 1990 revision Cape Verde Bank est. from census U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. from 1975 census Central African Rep. U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. Chad Bank est. from official CDR OfficiaL est. (UNPVSR 7/90) Bank est. from UNDY 1981 Channel Islands (UNPVSR 7/91) U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) U.N. 1990 revision Chile Bank est. U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. China (excl. Taiwan) U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) U.N. 1992 revision (pretim.) U.N. 1990 revision Colombla U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Comoros U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. from 1984 census Bank est. Congo, People's Rep. of the U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Costa Rica 1988 census U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Cote d'lvoire Bank est. from official est. Bank est. from official est. Bank est. from officiaL est. Croatia (Stat. Office, Belgrade, 1988) (Stat. Office, Belgrade, 1988) (Stat. Office, Belgrade, 1988) boxxVi DATA AND MErHoDs Table A3 (continued) Country, economy, or territory Total population, mid-1985 Total fertility, 1985-90 Cuba Official est. (UNDY 1988) Bank est. from official CBR (UNPVSR 10/88, 10/89) Cyprus Bank est. from official est. for 12/85 (UNPVSR Bank est. from official CBR (UNPVSR 10/91) 4/87) Czechoslovakia U.N. 1990 revision Monnier, 1991 Denmark Eurostat, 1989 Eurostat, 1989 Djibouti U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Dominica Bank est. from 1981 and 1991 censuses Bank est. based on official CBR (UNPVSR 10/91) Dominican Rep. U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) Bank est. based on 1986 DHS and 1991 DHS Ecuador Bank est. from 1990 census 1987 DHS Egypt U.N. 1990 revision 1988 DHS El Salvador U.N. 1990 revision 1988 Family Health Survey Equatorial Bank projection from 1983 census and 1982 Bank est. Guinea household listing Estonia Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1979 and 1989 censuses Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 census report Ethiopia Official est. (Central Stat. Authority, 1988) Official est. (Central Stat. Authority, 1988) Fiji Bank est., from 1986 census Bank est., based on U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1989 Finland Official est. (UNDY 1988) Bank est. from official CBR (UNPVSR 10/90, 7/91) France Eurostat, 1989 Eurostat, 1989, 1990 French Polynesia Bank est. from official 1985 est. (UNPVSR Bank est., based on U.S. Bureau of the Census, 10/88) 1989, and official CBR (UNPVSR 10/89) Gabon Bank projection from 1981 census Bank est. Gambia, The Bank projection from 1983 census Bank est. Gaza Strip U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. from CBR for Gaza (West Bank Date Base Project) Georgia Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1979 and 1989 censuses Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 census report Germany Eurostat, 1991 Eurostat 1990 (for Fed. Rep.) Ghana Official est. 1988 DHS Greece Eurostat, 1991 Bank est. based on Eurostat, 1989, 1990 Grenada Official est. (O.E.C.S. Statistical Digest, Bank est. from 1980-85 official est. (Ministry of 1987) Finance) Guadeloupe Bank est. from 1982 and 1990 censuses Bank est. from CBR and growth rate Guam U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1988 Bank est., based on U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1989, and official CBR (UNPVSR 10/91) Guatemala U.N. 1990 revision 1987 DHS Guinea U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. Guinea-Bissau Bank projection from 1979 census Bank est. Guyana Official est. (UNPVSR 10/90) Bank est. from official CBR Haiti U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Honduras U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Hong Kong U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. based on official CBR (UNPVSR 7/89) Hungary Official est. (Central Stat. Office, 1987) Nonnier, 1991 Iceland Official est. (UNPVSR 7/86) Bank est. based on official CBR India Bank est. from 1981 and 1991 censuses U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1987 Indonesia Bank est. from 1990 census Bank est. from 1987 and 1991 DHS Iran, Islamic Bank est. from 1986 census Bank est. based on U.S. Bureau of the Census, Rep. of 1989, and growth rate Iraq U.N. 1990 revIsion U.N. 1990 revision DATA AND METHODS bolxvii Country, economy, or Life expectancy, 1985-90 Infant mortality, 1985-90 Age-sex structure, 1990 territory U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) Bank est. from official est. U.N. 1990 revision Cuba (UNPVSR 10/88, 10/89) U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. from official est. U.N. 1990 revision Cyprus (UNPVSR 10/90) U.N. 1990 revision Official est. (UNPVSR 7/91) U.N. 1990 revision Czechoslovakia Eurostat, 1989 Eurostat, 1990, 1991 Eurostat, 1989 Dernmark U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Djibouti Bank est. from official CDR Bank est. from official est. Official est. (UNDY 1988) Dominica (UNPVSR 10/91) U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) Bank est. from 1986 DHS U.N. 1990 revision Dominican Rep. U.N. 1990 revision 1987 DHS U.N. 1990 revision Ecuador U.N. 1990 revision 1988 DHS U.N. 1990 revision Egypt U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision El Salvador Bank est. U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. Equatorial Guinea Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Estonia census report census report census report From Bank sector report est. U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Ethiopia U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Fiji Bank est. from official CDR Monner, 1988 U.N. 1990 revision Finland (UNPVSR 10/90, 7/91) Eurostat, 1989 Eurostat, 1989, 1990, 1991 Eurostat, 1989 France Bank est. based on U.S. Bureau Bank est. based on U.S. Bureau Bank est. French Polynesia of the census 1989; official CDR of the census 1989 Bank est. U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. Gabon Bank est. U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. Gambia, The U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1988 U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1988 Bank est. Gaza Strip Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Georgia census report census report census report Eurostat, 1990 (for Fed. Rep.) Eurostat, 1991 Eurostat, 1989 (Fed. Rep.), Germany U.N. 1990 revision (Dem. Rep.) U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. from 1970 census Ghana Bank est. based on official CDR Eurostat, 1991 Eurostat, 1989 Greece Bank est. from 1980-85 official Bank est. Bank est. Grenada est. (Ministry of Finance) U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. from official est. U.N. 1990 revision Guadeloupe (UNPVSR 4/90) Bank est. based on U.S. Bureau Bank est. based on U.S. Bureau Bank est. Guam of the Census, 1989 of the Census, 198S U.N. 1990 revision 1987 DHS U.N. 1990 revision Guatemala U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Guinea Bank est. U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. Guinea-Bissau U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Guyana U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Haiti U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Honduras U.N. 1990 revision Official est. (UNPVSR 10/90) U.N. 1990 revision Hong Kong U.N. 1990 revision Official est. (UNPVSR 10/91) Bank est. from 1980 census Hungary U.N. 1990 revision Official est. (UNPVSR 7/91) U.N. 1990 revision Iceland U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. from 1981 census India Bank est. from 1987 and 1991 DHS, Bank est. from 1987 and 1991 DHS, Bank est. from 1990 census Indonesia and 1990 census and 1990 census U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1989 U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1989 Bank est. Iran, Islamic Rep. of U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Iraq lbOxill DATA AND METHODS Table A3 (continued) Country, economy, or territory Total population, mid-1985 Total fertility, 1985-90 Ireland Eurostat, 1989 Eurostat 1989, 1991 Israel Official est. (UNPVSR 1/87) U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) Italy Eurostat, 1989 Eurostat 1989, 1990, 1991. Jamaica U.N. 1990 revision Bank estimate based on CBR Japan Official est. (UNPVSR 4/87) OfficiaL est. (Ministry of Health and Welfare) Jordan Bank est. from official est. (Stat. Yearbook, Bank est. 1983 Family Health Survey and 1990 DHS 1987) Kazakhstan Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1979 and 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 census report censuses Kenya Official est. 1989 DHS Kiribati Official est. (UNPVSR 1/88) Bank est. based on U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1989 Korea, People's U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Den. Rep. of Korea, Rep. of Official est. (Econ. Planning Bureau, 1988) Bank est. from official CBR (UNPVSR 1/89) Kuwait Official est. (UNPVSR 4/87) U.N. 1990 revision Kyrgyzstan Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1979 and 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 census report censuses Lao People's U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Den. Rep. Latvia Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1979 and 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 census report censuses Lebanon U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Lesotho Bank projection from 1986 census Bank est. from 1977 WFS Liberia U.N. 1990 revision 1986 DHS Libya U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Lithuania Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1979 and 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 census report censuses Luxembourg Eurostat, 1991 Eurostat 1989, 1990, 1991. Macao Official est. (UNPVSR 4/87) Bank est. from official CBR (UNPVSR 10/89, 10/90) Madagascar Official est. (UNPVSR 10/90) Bank assessment of 1980 survey Malawi Bank est. from 1987 census Bank est. from 1977 census Malaysia Official est. (Dept. of Stat.) U.N. 1990 revision Maldives Bank projection from 1985 census Bank est. from official CBR for 1980-1985 Mali Bank projection from 1976 census 1987 DHS Malta U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. from official CBR (UNPVSR 10/89, 10/90) Martinique U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) Mauritania Bank projection from 1988 census Official est. from 1988 census Mauritius U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Mexico Official est. (UNPVSR 4/87) U.N. 1990 revision Micronesia, Fed. Official est. (ESCWA Stat. Yearbook for Asia Bank est. based on U.S. Bureau of the Census, States of and the Pacific, 1988) 1989 Moldova Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1979 and 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 census report censuses Mongolia Bank projection from 1989 census U.N. 1990 revision Montserrat Official est. (UNDY 1986) Bank est. from official CBR (UNPVSR 1/87) Morocco Dank est. from official est. Bank est. from 1987 DHS Mozambique Bank projection from 1980 census Bank est. Myanmar U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Namibia U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision DATA AND METHoDs bcIxlx Country, economy, or Life expectancy, 1985-90 Infant mortality, 1985-90 Age-sex structure, 1990 territory Bank est. based on official CDR Eurostat, 1991 Eurostat, 1989 Ireland U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) Official est. CUNPVSR 10/91) U.N. 1990 revision Israel Eurostat 1990, 1991 Eurostat, 1990, 1991 Eurostat, 1989 Italy U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Jamaica OfficiaL est. (Ministry of U.N. 1990 revision Official est. (Ministry of Japan Health and Welfare) Health and Welfare) U.N. 1990 revision U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1989 Bank est. Jordan Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Kazakhstan census report census report census report U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Kenya Bank est. based on U.S. Bureau Bank est. based on U.S. Bureau Bank est. Kiribati of the Census, 1989 of the Census, 1989 U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Korea, People's Dem. Rep. of U.N. 1990 revision Bank est., based on official CDR U.N. 1990 revision Korea, Rep. of U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. from official est. U.N. 1990 revision Kuwait (UNPVSR 10/90) Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Kyrghyzstan census report census report census report U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Lao People's Dem. Rep. Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Official est. (UNPVSR 10/91) Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Latvia census report census report U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Lebanon official est. U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Lesotho U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Liberia U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Libya Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Official est. (UNPVSR 10/91) Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Lithuania census report census report Eurostat, 1990. 1991 Eurostat, 1990, 1991 Eurostat, 1989 Luxembourg Bank est. Bank est. Bank est. Macao Bank est. from 1980 and 1984 U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Madagascar surveys U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. Malawi Bank est. from official est. Bank est. from official est. U.N. 1990 revision Malaysia Bank est. from 1990 census Bank est. from 1990 census Bank est. Maldives Bank est. from 1976 census U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. Mali U.N. 1990 revision Official est. (UNPVSR 10/90) U.N. 1990 revision Malta U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) U.N. 1990 revision Martinique U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. Mauritania Bank est. based on official est. U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Mauritius tUNPVSR 7/86) J.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Hexico Bank est. based on U.S. Bureau Bank est. based on U.S. Bureau Bank est. based on U.S. Bureau Micronesia, Fed. of the Census, 1989 of the Census, 1989 of the Census, 1989 States of Bank tSt. fs-om U.S.S.R. 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Moldova census report census report census report U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 190M revision Mongolia Bank est., based on official Bank est. UNDY 1988 Montserrat est. (UNPVSR 1/87) U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. from 1988 DNS U.N. 1990 revision Morocco Bank est. from official CDR U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Mozambique U.N. 199G revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Myamar U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Namibia XC DATA AND METHODS Table A3 (continued) Country, economy, or territory Total population, mid-1985 Total fertility, 1985-90 Nepal Official est. (Central Bureau of Stat.) Bank est. from survey Netherlands Eurostat, 1991 Eurostat 1989, 1991 Netherlands Bank est. from 1971 and 1981 censuses Bank est. based on U.S. Bureau of the Census, Antilles 1987, and official CBR (UNPVSR 10/90) New Caledonia Bank est. from 1983 census and 1986 offIcial Bank est. based on U.S. Bureau of the Census, est (UNPVSR 10/89) 1989 New ZeaLand Bank est. from official 1985 est. U.N. 1990 revision Nicaragua U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Niger Bank projection of 1988 census U.N. 1990 revision Nigeria Bank projection from 1963 census Bank est. from 1991 DHS Norway Official est. (UNPVSR 7/86) Bank est. from official CBR (UNPVSR 10/88-9/91) Oman U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Pakistan Bank est. from U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. based on growth rate Panama U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Papua New Guinea U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Paraguay U.N. 1990 revision 1990 DHS Peru Bank projection from 1981 census Bank est. from Bank assessment for 1980-85 Philippines Bank est. from official est. (UNPVSR 10/88) Bank est. from official est. (Nat. Stat. Office) Poland Official est. tUNPVSR 7/86) Nonnier, 1991 Portugal Eurostat, 1991 Eurostat 1989, 1991 Puerto Rico U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) Bank est. from official CBR Qatar Bank est. from 1986 census and 1989 official Bank est. from official CBR (UNPVSR 10/90) est. (UNPVSR 10/90) Reunion U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Romania Official est. (UNPVSR 10/89) Official est. (Stat. Yearbook of Romania, 1990) Russian Fed. Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1979 and 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 census report censuses Rwanda U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Sao Tome and Bank est. from 1981 and 1991 censuses Bank est. Principe Saudi Arabia Bank est. U.N. 1990 revision Senegal Bank est. from 1988 census 1986 DHS Seychelles Official est. (Stat. Bulletin of MIS Division) Bank est. from official CBR Sierra Leone Bank est. from 1985 census Bank est. from 1974 census Singapore Bank est. from 1980 and 1990 censuses Bank est. from official CBR (UNPVSR 1/89, 10/89) Slovenia Official est. (Statistical Office, Belgrade Bank est. from official est. (Stat. Office, 1988) Belgrade, 1988) Solomon Islands Bank est. from 1986 census U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) Somalia Bank est. from 1987 census Bank est. South Africa U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Spain Eurostat, 1991 Bank est. from official CBR, and Eurostat, 1989, 1991 Sri Lanka Official est. (UNPVSR 4/87) 1987 DHS St. Kitts and Official est. (Statistics office, Plaming Bank est. from official CBR (Statistics Office, Nevis Unit) Planning Unit) St. Lucia Official est. (UNPVSR 1/88) Bank est. from official CBR st. Vincent and Bank est. from 1980 and 1991 censuses Bank est. from official CBR tUNPVSR 10/89, 10/91) the Grenadines Sudan Bank projection from 85 census U.N. 1990 revision Suriname Official est. (Central Bureau of Civil Bank est. from official CBR (Central Bureau of Affairs) Civil Affairs) Swaziland U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1991 revision Sweden Official est. (UNPVSR 4/87) Bank eat. from official CBR (UNPVSR 10/89, 10/90) DATA AND METHODS XCI Country, economy, or Life expectancy, 1985-90 Infant mortaLity, 1985-90 Age-sex structure, 1990 territory U.N. 1990 revision Govermnent Survey Bank est. Nepal U.N. 1990 revision Eurostat, 1989, 1990, 1991 Eurostat, 1989 Netherlands Bank est. based on U.S. Bureau Official est. (UNPVSR 10/90) UNDY 1988 Netherlands of the Census and UNPVSR 10/90 Antilles Bank est. based on U.S. Bureau Bank est. based on U.S. Bureau Bank est. New CaLedonia of the Census, 1989 of the Census, 1989 U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision New Zealand U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revisfon Nicaragua U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. Niger U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revislon Nigeria U.N. 1990 revision Official est. (UNPVSR 10/88-7/91) U.N. 1990 revision Norway U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revisfon U.N. 199' revision Oman Bank est. Official est. (UNPVSR 7/91) Bank est. Pakistan U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revIsion U.N. 1990 revision Panama U.N. 1990 revision U.N. Stat. Yearbook for Asia and U.N. 1990 revision Papua New Guinea Pacific, 1988 U.N. 1990 revision 1990 DHS U.N. 1990 revision Paraguay Bank est. 1986 DHS U.N. 1990 revisIon Peru Bank est. U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Philippines Bank est. from official CDR Officlal est. (UNPVSR 7/91) U.N. 1990 revision Poland Eurostat 1989, 1990 & 1991 Eurostat, 1989, 1990, 1991 Eurostat, 1989 Portugal Bank est. based on CDR Official est. (UNPVSR 10/91) U.N. 1990 revision Puerto Rico U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Qatar U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Reunion Official est. (Stat. Yearbook Official est. U.N. 1990 revision Romania of Romania, 1991) Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Russian Fed. census report census report census report U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revisfon U.N. 1990 revision Rwanda Bank est. from official CDR Bank est. from official est. lank est. Sao Tome and (UNPVSR 7/89) (UNPVSR 7/89) Principe U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revisfon U.N. 1990 revIsion Saudi Arabia Bank est. U.N. 1990 revision Official est. Senegal Bank est. Official est. UNDY 1984 Seychelles U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. Sierra Leone U.N. 1990 revision Official est. (UNPVSR 1/89) U.N. 1990 revision Singapore Bank est. from official est. Bank est. from official est. Bank est. from official est. Slovenia (Stat. Office, Belgrade, 1988) (Stat. Office, Belgrade, 1988) (Stat. Office, Belgrade, 1988) Bank est. from official 1980-84 Bank est. Bank est. Solomon Islands est. (Stat. Bulletin, Noniara) Bank est. U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. Somalia U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision South Africa Eurostat, 1991 Bank est. based on Eurostat, Eurostat, 1989 Spain 1989, 1990, 1991 U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. from 1987 DNS U.N. 1990 revision Sri Lanka Bank est. from official CDR Bar.k est. from official est. Official est. from 1980 census St. Kitts and (Stat. Office, Planning Unit) Nevis Bank est. from official CDR Bank est. from official est. Official est. from 1980 census St. Lucia Bank est. from official CDR Official est. (UNPVSR 10/89, UNDY 1983 St. Vincent and (UNPVSR 10/89, 10/91) 10/91) the Grenadines U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Sudan Bank est. from official ZOR, Bank est. U.N. 1990 revision Suriname (Central Bureau of Civil Affairs) Bank est. Bank est. Bank est. Swaziland U.N. 1990 revision Official est. (UNPVSR 10/88-7/91) U.N. 1990 revision Sweden xcii DATA AND METHODS Table A3 (continued) Country, economy, or territory Total population, mid-1985 Total fertility, 1985-90 Switzerland Official est. (UNDY 1988) Bank est from official CBR (PVSR 10/90, 10/91) Syrian Arab Rep. U.N. 1992 Rev. (Prelim.) U.N. 1992 revision (preLim.) Taiwan, China Bank est. based on official year-end est. Bank est. from officiai CBR (Taiwan Stat. Data (Stat. Data Book, 1987) Book, 1987) Tajikistan Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1979 and 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 census report censuses Tanzania Bank est. from 1978 and 1988 censuses From Bank sector report est. Thailand Official est. (Nat Econ and Soc Dev Board, U.N. 1990 revision 1985) Togo Bank projection of 1981 census 1987 OHS Tonga Bank projection from 1984 mini-census Bank est. based on U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1989 Trinidad and U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) Bank est. based on 1987 DHS Tobago Tunisia Official est. (UNPVSR 1/88) Bank est, based on 1988 DHS Turkey Official est. (Social Indicators, Turkey, Bank est. from official CBR (UNPVSR 10/91) 1990) Turkmenistan Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1979 and 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 census report censuses Uganda Bank projection from 1969, 1980, and 1991 1988/89 DHS censuses Ukraine Official est. (UNDY 1989) Official est. (UNDY 1989) United Arab U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Emirates United Kingdom Eurostat, 1991 Eurostat 1989, 1991 United States of Official est. (UNDY 1989) Official est. (Nat. Center for Health Stat.) America Uruguay Official est. from 1985 census Bank est. from official est. Uzbekistan Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1979 and 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 census report censuses Vanuatu Bank est. from 1979 and 1989 censuses Bank est. based on U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1989 Venezuela Official est. (UNPVSR 1/87) U.N. 1990 revision Viet Nam Bank est. from 1989 census Bank est. from 1989 census Virgin Islands U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1985 Bank est. from official COR (UNPVSR 4/90) (U.S.) West Bank U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1989 U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1989 Western Samoa Bank est. from 1986 census Bank est. from 1986 census Yemen, Rep. of Bank est. from 1988 census Yemen P.D.R. and Bank est. based on U.N. 1990 revision 1986 census for Yemen A.R. Yugoslavia Official est. (Statistical Office, Belgrade Bank est. from official est. (Stat. Office, 1988) Belgrade, 1988) Zaire U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) Bank est. Zambia Bank projection from 1980 census From Bank sector report est. Zimbabwe Bank projection from 1982 census 1988 OHS DATA AND METHODS xciii Country, economy, or Life expectancy, 1985-90 Infant mortality, 1985*90 Age-sex structure, 1990 territory Bank est. from official est. Official est. (UNPVSR 7/91) U.N. 1990 revision SwItzerland (UNPVSR 10/90, 10/91; UNDY 1987) U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) U.N. 1990 revision Syrian Arab Rep. Bank est. from official CDR Bank est., based on U.S. Bureau Official est. (Taiwan Stat. Taiwan, China (Taiwan Stat. Data Book, 1987) of the Census, 1987 Data Book, 1987) Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Tajikistan census report census report census report From Bank sector report est. From Bank sector report est. Bank sector report est. Tanzania Based on official proj. 1985 Based on 1987 DHS U.N. 1990 revision Thailand U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. Togo Bank est. Bank est., based on U.S. Bureau Bank est. Tonga of the Census, 1989 U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) Bank est. based on 1987 DHS U.N. 1990 revision Trinidad and ',bago U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Tunisia Official est. from 1985 census Official est. from 1985 census U.N. 1990 revision Turkey Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Turkmenistan census report census report census report Bank est. U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. Uganda Official est. (UNDY 1989 and Official est. (UNDY 1989) UNDY 1989 Ukraine UNPVSR 10/91) U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision United Arab Emirates Eurostat, 1991 Eurostat, 1989, 1990, 1991 Eurostat, 1989 United Kingdom OfficIal est. (Nat. Center for Official est. (Nat. Center for U.N. 1990 revision United States of Health Stats., and Census Bureau) Health Stats., and Census Bureau) America Official est. from 1985 census U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) U.N. 1990 revision Uruguay Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Uzbekistan census report census report census report Bank est. Bank est. from official est. Bank est. Vanuatu U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Venezuela Bank est, based on 1988 survey Bank est. from 1989 census Bank est. from 1989 census Viet Nam Bank est. from official CDR Official est. (UNPVSR 10/91) Official est. from 130 census Virgin Islands (UNPVSR 4/90) (U.S.) U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1989 U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1989 Bank est. West Bank Bank est. from official 1986 est. Bank est. based on official est. Bank est. from 1986 census Western Samoa Bank est. based on U.N. 1990 Bank est. based on U.N. 1990 Bank est. based on U.N. 1990 Yemen, Rep. of Bank est. from official est. Bank est. from official est. Bank est. from official est. Yugoslavia (Stat. office, Belgrade, 1988) (Stat. Office, Belgrade, 1988) (Stat. Office, Belgrade, 1988) U.N. 1990 revision Bank estimate U.N. 1990 revision Zaire From Bank sector report est. U.N.1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Zambla 1988 DHS DHS, 1988 Bank est. Zimiabwe xciv DATA AND METHODS REFERENCES Arnold, Fred. 1989. Revised estimates and projections of international migration. Policy, Planning, and Research Working Papers, No. 275. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Bourgeois-Pichat, Jean. 1978. Future outlook for mortality decline in the world. Populatfon Bulletin of the United Nations. 11:12-41. Bos, Eduard, and Rodolfo A. Bulatao. 1989. Projecting fertility for all countries. Policy, Planning, and Research Working Papers, WPS 500. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Bos, Eduard, My T. Vu, and Patience W. Stephens. 1992. Sources of World Bank estimates of current mortality rates. Policy Research Working Papers, WPS 851. Wash;ngton, D.C.: World Bank. Bulatao, Rodolfo A., Eduard Bos, Patience W. Stephens and My T. Vu 1989. Projecting mortality for all countries. Policy, Planning, and Research Working Papers. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Bulatao, Rodolfo A., Eduard Bos, Patience W. Stephens and My T. Vu 1990. World Populaton Projections. 1989-90 EditionL Johns Hopkins University Press. Baltimore. Maryland. Bulatao, Rodolfo A., and Ann Elwan. 1985. Fertility and mortality transition: Patterns, projections, and interdependence. World Bank Staff Working Paper No. 681. Washington, D.C. Coale, Ansley J., and Guang Guo. 1989. Revised regional model life tables at very low levels of mortality. Unpublished paper. Office of Population Research, Princeton University. Eurostat. 1991. Demographic Statistics. Luxembourg: Statistical Offioe of the European Communities. Hill, Kenneth. 1990. PROJ3S - A Computer Program for Population Projections. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Manton, Kenneth G. 1986. Past and future life expectancy increases at later ages: Their implications for the linkage of chronic morbidity, disability and mortality. Jounal of Gerontolfgy 41:672-681. Monnier, Alain and Catherine de Guibert-Lantoine. 1991. "La cornjoncture demographique: L'Europe et les pays d6veloppes d'outre-mer," Population 46(4):943-961. United Nations. Department of Intemational Economic and Social Affairs. 1990. World Population Prospects 1990. New York: United Nations. United Nations. Department of Intemational Economic and Social Affairs. Various years. Population and Vital Statitics Report. New York: United Nations. DATA AND METHODS XCV ADDENDUM This section was produced after the projections were completed, just before the papers were Issued. Its purpose is to list the results of censuses and surveys that came to our attention too late to be incorporated. Note that these are usually preliminary results that have not been evaluated for data quality, i.e., undercounts In censuses or sampling errors in surveys. Differences with the estimates In the main tables In this volume are therefore not necessarily Inconsistencies. Bolivia: Preliminary result of June 1992 census gives total population of 6.3 million. Djlboutl* Intercensal survey (EDI) of 1991 gives total population of 519,900. Malaysia: Preliminary result of the August 1991 census is 17,566,982 persons. Underenumeration in the 1980 census was estimated at 4.4 percent. Nigeria: Preliminary result of the November 1991 census shows a total of 88,514,501 million people. Pakistan: Integrated Household Survey (PIHS) of 1991 estimates the IMR at 121 for 1986-90. Peru: Preliminary estimates from the 1991-92 Encuesta DemogrMfica y de Salud Familiar (ENDES-DHS) shows the IMR at 55 for the five-year period preceding the survey and the TFR at 3.5 for the three years preceding the survey. Zambia: Preliminary estimates from the Demographic and Health Survey (ZDHS) of 1992 show the IMR at 108 for the five-year period preceding the survey and the TFR at 6.3 for the three years preceding the survey. Detailed Population Projections World, Geographic Regions, and Income Groups 2 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS WORLD Population Projection (thousands) AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 4827212 5267831 5720651 6167907 6611985 7049458 7483922 7918682 8345351 8751064 MALES 0-4 294052 321536 332798 334792 339236 344538 351515 360326 365378 365216 5-9 266550 286789 314576 326358 329061 333822 339608 347143 356522 362206 10-14 266278 264407 284599 312407 324234 327024 331892 337848 345584 355174 15-19 252761 264159 262308 282431 310167 322032 324916 329896 336020 343951 20-24 224730 249938 261280 259483 279431 307119 319037 322053 327185 333530 25-29 197166 221789 246840 258172 256330 276168 303814 315802 318978 324298 30-34 178794 194420 218928 243887 255099 253308 273071 300706 312796 316163 35-39 146535 176009 191530 215954 240719 251898 250191 269901 297548 309778 40-44 118843 143614 172742 188168 212393 236958 248115 246536 266192 293842 45-49 108617 115512 139869 168557 183784 207745 232058 243206 241820 261409 50-54 98754 104154 111000 134785 162775 177708 201276 225221 236357 235261 55-59 85172 92720 98068 104858 127815 154786 169329 192349 215790 226918 60-64 68612 77445 84668 89969 96693 118476 144053 158084 180358 203119 65-69 48128 59371 67466 74280 79528 86042 106226 129908 143224 164443 70-74 36165 38456 47942 55097 61386 66365 72519 90541 111663 123959 75+ 37925 43585 48657 58870 71070 83307 94702 106734 129043 160999 TOTAL 2429082 2653904 2883270 3108068 3329723 3547296 3762324 3976253 4184458 4380264 FEMALES 0-4 280801 309476 320755 323152 327553 332398 338806 346963 351478 350938 5-9 253533 273988 303059 315088 318275 322939 328204 335096 343752 348826 10-14 253226 251547 272006 301185 313312 316567 321323 326741 333813 342662 15-19 240870 251326 249750 270218 299394 311563 314911 319784 325375 332648 20-24 215380 238506 249058 247636 268026 297206 309464 312964 318017 323855 25-29 189392 212830 235970 246648 245304 265645 294863 307258 310966 316260 30-34 172264 186864 210282 233436 244160 242909 263233 292519 305091 309052 35-39 141935 169695 184287 207679 230767 241526 240409 260746 290128 302921 40-44 115844 139413 166953 181533 204823 2Z7803 238623 237682 258053 287546 45-49 106844 113193 136560 163826 178339 201458 224314 235216 234503 254913 50-54 98489 103574 109960 133059 159928 174314 197209 219909 230922 230505 55-59 87240 94299 99407 105847 128574 154865 169108 191726 214249 225434 60-64 76200 81817 88774 93921 100429 122589 148126 162217 184511 206864 65-69 56941 69058 74523 81339 86553 93051 114447 138981 152917 174842 70-74 46668 48410 59594 64811 71434 76550 83010 103314 126456 140186 75+ 62505 69931 76443 90459 105392 120779 135548 151312 180660 223346 TOTAL 2398130 2613927 2837381 3059839 3282263 3502162 3721598 3942429 4163892 4370800 BIRTH RATE 27.2 25.7 23.7 22.2 20.9 19.9 19.2 18.3 17.2 OEATH RATE 9.7 9.2 8.6 8.2 8.1 8.0 7.9 7.8 7.7 RATE OF NAT. INC. 1.75 1.65 1.51 1.39 1.28 1.20 1.13 1.05 .95 NET MIGRATION RATE -.0 -.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.75 1.65 1.51 1.39 1.28 1.20 1.13 1.05 .95 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.428 3.233 3.019 2.872 2.733 2.605 2.518 2.441 2.360 NRR 1.459 1.381 1.306 1.267 1.223 1.173 1.143 1.122 1.098 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 64.87 65.98 67.23 68.49 69.43 70.45 71.56 72.75 74.04 e(15) - BOTH SEXES 55.61 56.20 56.88 57.56 58.17 58.84 59.55 60.32 61.15 IHR - BOTH SEXES 68.8 62.7 56.5 50.0 45.3 40.1 34.9 29.7 24.2 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0961 .0874 .0784 .0687 .0625 .0555 .0484 .0411 .0335 DEP. RATIO 65.1 63.0 62.6 61.0 58.0 55.1 53.8 53.9 54.4 55.2 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REOIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS 3 Summary Projection for 25-Year Periods WORLD AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 4827212 6167907 8345351 10055421 11092173 11651991 11938278 12078606 MALES 0-4 294052 334792 365378 362462 362250 362246 362268 362207 5-9 266550 326358 356522 361217 361542 361845 362008 361953 10-14 266278 312407 345584 360107 361064 361684 361971 361911 15-19 252761 282431 336020 359204 360526 361330 361723 361692 20-24 224730 259483 327185 358746 359432 360422 360960 361053 25-29 197166 258172 318978 355681 357966 358977 359798 360059 30-34 178794 243887 312796 347107 355808 357413 358567 359035 35-39 146535 215954 297548 334498 353121 355625 357285 357979 40-44 118843 188168 266192 322710 350210 353455 355544 356501 45-49 108617 168557 241820 311223 347108 350353 352918 354189 50-54 98754 134785 236357 298537 339388 345182 348373 350231 55-59 85172 104858 215790 284645 323337 336748 341569 344286 60-64 68612 89969 180358 258747 300040 324633 331939 335886 65-69 48128 74280 143224 214943 272840 307601 317968 323313 70-74 36165 55097 111663 174816 239850 283291 296936 304075 75+ 3792s 58870 129043 296212 440338 564953 647496 687468 TOTAL 2429082 3108068 4184458 5000856 5484821 5745757 5877325 5941837 FEMALES 0-4 280801 323152 351478 347592 346932 346510 346455 346406 5-9 253533 315088 343752 346841 346523 346307 346283 346240 10-14 253226 301185 333813 346132 346265 346292 346274 346226 15-19 240870 270218 325375 345839 346129 346252 346203 346174 20-24 215380 247636 318017 346459 345861 346069 345988 346047 25-29 189392 246648 310966 345021 345596 345684 345766 345856 30-34 172264 233436 305091 338066 344607 345118 345442 345622 35-39 141935 207679 290128 327081 343110 344325 345046 345315 40-44 115844 181533 258053 317127 341696 343447 344486 344840 45-49 106844 163826 234503 307844 340668 342131 343578 344069 50-54 98489 133059 230922 298055 336601 340101 341987 342919 55-59 87240 105847 214249 288047 325869 336418 339598 341193 60-64 76200 93921 184511 267510 309615 331009 336208 338792 65-69 56941 81339 152917 228759 291821 323762 331517 335276 70-74 46668 64811 126456 195515 270424 313231 323981 329514 75+ 62505 90459 180660 408677 625635 809578 932141 992279 TOTAL 2398130 3059839 4160892 5054565 5607352 5906234 6060953 6136768 BIRTH RATE 25.4 20.0 15.7 13.5 12.5 12.0 11.8 DEATH RATE 9.1 8.0 8.3 9.6 10.5 11.1 11.4 NET MIGRATION RATE -.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.63 1.21 .75 .39 .20 .10 .05 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.216 2.623 2.231 2.078 2.064 2.057 2.055 etO) - BOTH SEXES 66.09 70.66 75.96 79.92 82.36 84.39 85.21 IMR - BOTH SEXES 62.6 39.9 18.0 7.5 4.4 2.5 2.2 4 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS LDC Population Projection (thousands) AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 3649732 4053342 4471202 4885762 5299238 5710319 6121662 6535814 6944289 7334724 MALES 0-4 249588 276595 288354 291419 295905 301008 307848 316614 321658 321417 5-9 222483 242250 269614 281861 285662 290491 296100 303508 312853 318538 10-14 220969 220264 240026 267392 279703 283608 288560 294347 301963 311524 15-19 206221 218846 218193 237861 265in 277534 281543 286612 292571 300387 20-24 177711 203378 216005 215363 234893 262194 274635 278785 284021 290216 25-29 149161 174716 200310 212874 212234 231711 259018 271547 275875 281321 30-34 132454 146470 171940 197391 209866 209317 228758 256072 268714 273243 35-39 103023 129882 143819 169117 194382 206843 206396 225792 253124 265903 40-44 84440 100521 127059 140840 165886 190957 203392 203059 222398 249725 45-49 75686 81693 97499 123563 137101 161826 186616 199000 198825 218069 50-54 66200 72240 78118 93514 118858 132082 156315 180676 192974 193019 55-59 55421 61825 67602 73313 88109 112458 125247 148769 172520 184687 60-64 42867 50009 55988 61450 66946 80935 103905 116092 138622 161524 65-69 31356 36687 43011 48477 -53553 58730 71603 92684 104029 125167 70-74 21458 24634 29055 34378 39211 43733 48433 59781 78317 88486 75+ 19182 23534 27997 33649 40974 48929 57108 65624 79787 103603 TOTAL 1858219 2063544 2274589 2482462 2688454 2892358 3095479 3298963 3498252 3686829 FEMALES 0-4 238254 266665 278452 281890 286349 291010 297295 305419 309935 309330 5-9 211480 231315 260181 272692 276952 281702 286808 293589 302226 307315 10-14 210000 209377 229263 258220 270854 275202 280064 285332 292304 301144 15-19 196555 207979 207508 227381 256365 269066 273527 278517 283972 291156 20-24 169763 193947 205559 205204 225058 254096 266927 271566 276762 282487 25-29 142364 166934 191239 202930 202721 222587 251715 264714 269590 275058 30-34 126439 139683 164301 188578 200363 200289 220177 249396 262592 267741 35-39 98524 123863 137141 161688 185920 197762 197841 217754 247079 260504 40-44 81114 96157 121295 134527 158959 183087 194990 195241 215187 244619 45-49 72824 78737 93633 118470 131615 155854 179839 191803 192263 212236 50-54 64039 70042 75939 90618 115039 128043 152014 175805 187846 188570 55-59 54043 "i640 66546 72415 86793 110635 123467 147091 170647 182805 60-64 43381 49807 56171 61949 67778 81718 104789 117414 140603 163896 65-69 33273 38154 44120 50155 55769 61497 74837 96864 109237 131882 70-74 24141 27029 31329 36639 42221 47530 53076 65548 86099 98098 75. 25321 29467 33936 39941 48030 57884 68818 80797 99694 131055 TOTAL 1791513 1989798 2196612 2403299 2610784 2817962 3026183 3236851 3446036 3647895 BIRTH RATE 31.0 29.0 26.5 24.5 22.9 21.6 20.6 19.5 18.2 DEATH RATE 9.7 9.2 8.6 8.1 7.8 7.6 7.5 7.4 7.3 RATE OF NAT. INC. 2.13 1.98 1.79 1.64 1.50 1.40 1.31 1.21 1.09 NET MIGRATION RATE -.3 -.2 -.1 -.1 -.1 -.0 -.0 -.0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.10 1.96 1.77 1.62 1.49. 1.39 1.31 1.21 1.09 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.903 3.585 3.284 3.074 2.885 2.718 2.604 2.507 2.406 NRR 1.616 1.497 1.393 1.337 1.277 1.211 1.171 1.144 1.113 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 61.94 63.23 64.67 66.11 67.24 68.44 69.73 71.09 72.54 el15) - BOTH SEXES 54.05 54.61 55.29 55.97 56.68 57.43 58.23 59.08 59.99 IMR - BOTH SEXES 76.8 69.9 62.9 55.6 50.4 44.6 38.8 32.9 26.9 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .1077 .0976 .0874 .0766 .0696 .0617 .0537 .0456 .0372 DEP. RATIO 70.4 67.0 65.9 63.5 59.4 55.6 53.4 52.9 52.7 53.2 WORLD, OEOFRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS 5 SuLmary Projection for 25-Year Perfods LDC AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 3649732 4885762 6944239 S622786 9654232 10200047 10475017 10609578 MALES 0-4 249588 291419 321658 318729 318521 318515 318535 318475 5-9 222483 281561 312853 317555 317850 318144 318305 318252 10-14 220969 267392 301963 31649 317370 317985 318273 318216 15-19 206221 237861 292T1 315541 316850 317657 318052 318022 20-24 177711 215363 264021 315163 315848 316835 317367 317453 25-29 149161 212874 27ssn 312354 314547 315523 316321 316569 30-34 132454 197391 26714 303955 312566 314092 315207 315658 35-39 103023 169117 253124 291567 310049 312430 314042 314717 40-44 84440 140840 222396 280168 307297 310434 312466 313397 45-49 75686 123563 196625 269219 304497 307618 310102 311331 50-54 66200 93514 192974 257070 297431 302959 306012 307797 55-59 55421 7313 1M20 2430n 282237 295293 299877 302483 60-64 42867 61450 138622 218153 260175 284237 291188 294979 65-69 31356 48477 104029 176804 234863 268716 278638 283770 70-74 21458 34378 78M 140137 204b62 246m 259814 266643 75+ 19182 33649 79787 2227 363026 483434 562069 599969 TOTAL 1858219 2482462 3496252 429631 4777788 5030649 5156268 5217728 FEMALES 0-4 238254 281890 309935 306063 305415 30499S 304939 304891 5-9 211480 272692 302226 305361 305028 304809 304785 304744 10-14 210000 258220 292304 304664 304764 304792 304777 304732 15-19 196555 227381 283972 3043M5 30'622 304756 304712 304685 20-24 169763 205204 276762 304925 304373 304591 304513 304570 25-29 142364 202930 269590 303597 304153 304236 304310 304395 30-34 126439 l167s 26252 29668 303228 303700 304007 304179 35-39 98524 161688 247079 285778 301768 302935 303635 303898 40-44 81114 134527 215s18 276015 300380 302098 303117 303463 45-49 72824 118470 192263 266995 299427 300866 302280 302754 50-54 64039 90616 187846 257281 295612 298969 300806 301701 55-59 54043 72415 170647 246470 285136 m532 298580 300114 60-64 43381 61949 140603 2258s3 269268 290413 295406 297905 65-69 33273 50155 o1927 187921 252108 283515 291033 294679 70-74 24141 36639 860o 156311 231697 273622 284041 289400 75+ 25321 39941 9994 295834 509444 689549 807806 865739 TOTAL 1791513 2403299 3446036 4324057 4876444 5169398 5318748 5391850 BIRTH RATE 28.7 21.6 16.4 13.7 12.6 12.1 11.9 DEATH RATE 9.1 7.6 ?.8 9.2 10.4 11.0 11.3 NET NIGRATION RATE -.2 -.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTN RATE 1.94 1.41 .87 .45 .22 .11 .05 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.567 2.739 2.255 2.080 2.064 2.056 2.054 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 63.37 68.70 74.78 79.26 81.96 84.19 85.08 IHR * BOTH SEXES 69.8 44.3 20.0 6.2 4.7 2.5 2.2 6 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS MDC Population Projection (thousands) AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 1177480 1214489 1249449 1282145 1312748 1339139 1362260 1382868 1401062 1416340 MALES 0-4 44463 44941 44444 43373 43331 43530 43667 43711 43720 43799 5-9 44068 44539 44962 44497 43400 43331 43508 43635 43669 43668 10-14 45309 44143 44573 45015 44530 43416 43332 43501 43621 43649 15-19 46540 45313 44115 44570 44996 44498 43373 43284 43448 43565 20-24 47020 46560 45275 44119 44538 44925 44402 43268 43164 43314 25-29 48005 47073 46530 45298 44096 44457 44796 44255 43102 42976 30-34 46340 47950 46988 46496 45234 43991 44313 44634 44083 42920 35-39 43512 46127 47711 46837 46337 45055 43795 44109 44424 43875 40-44 34403 43093 45683 47329 46507 46001 44723 43476 43794 44116 45-49 32931 33819 42369 44994 46683 45919 45442 44205 42995 43340 50-54 32554 31914 32882 41271 43918 45625 44961 44545 43383 42242 55-59 29751 30894 30466 31545 39706 42327 44082 43580 43270 42231 60-64 25745 27436 28680 28519 29747 37541 40149 41992 41736 41595 65-69 16772 22685 24455 25803 25975 27312 34623 37224 39195 39275 70-74 14707 13821 18887 20719 22175 22632 24086 30759 33345 35473 75+ 18743 20052 20661 25221 30096 34378 37594 41111 49256 57396 TOTAL 570863 590360 608681 625606 641269 654938 666845 677290 686206 693435 FEMALES 0-4 42547 42811 42303 41262 41204 41389 41512 41544 41543 41608 5-9 42053 42672 42878 42396 41323 41236 41396 41506 41526 41511 10-14 43226 42170 42743 42965 42458 41364 41259 41408 41509 41519 15-19 44315 43347 42242 42837 43029 42497 41383 41266 41404 41492 20-24 45618 44559 43499 42432 42968 43110 42537 41399 41256 41368 25-29 47027 45896 44731 43718 42583 43058 43148 42544 41376 41203 30-34 45824 47181 45981 44858 43797 42620 43056 43124 42499 41312 35-39 43411 45831 47146 45991 44847 43764 42567 42992 43049 42417 40-44 34730 43256 45658 47006 45863 44716 43633 42441 42866 42926 45-49 34020 34456 42927 45355 46724 45604 44476 43413 42239 42677 50-54 34450 33532 34021 42442 44890 46272 45196 44104 43076 41935 55-59 33197 33659 32862 33431 41781 44230 45641 44635 43602 42629 60-64 32819 32010 32603 31972 32651 40872 43337 44803 43909 42968 65-69 23668 30904 30404 31184 30785 31554 39610 42117 43680 42960 70-74 22527 21381 28265 28172 29213 29020 29935 37766 40357 42088 75+ 37184 40464 42506 50518 57363 62895 66730 70515 80966 92291 TOTAL 606616 624129 640769 656540 671479 684201 695415 705578 714856 722905 BIRTH RATE 14.9 14.3 13.5 13.2 12.9 12.7 12.5 12.3 12.2 DEATH RATE 9.5 9.1 8.9 8.8 9.2 9.5 9.6 9.8 10.0 RATE OF NAT. INC. .54 .51 .46 .43 .37 .32 .29 .26 .22 NET MIGRATION RATE .8 .5 .6 .4 .3 .2 .1 .1 .0 GROWTH RATE .62 .57 .52 .47 .40 .34 .30 .26 .22 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.953 1.946 1.929 1.955 1.981 1.998 2.017 2.038 2.060 NRR .937 .924 .918 .936 .952 .963 .972 .983 .995 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 74.29 75.50 76.70 77.83 78.52 79.24 80.00 80.79 81.61 etIS) - BOTH SEXES 60.63 61.71 62.75 63.76 64.36 64.99 65.65 66.34 67.06 IHR - BOTH SEXES 14.7 12.4 10.5 9.0 8.0 6.9 5.8 4.8 3.7 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0180 .0154 .0131 .0113 .0102 .0089 .0076 .0064 .0052 DEP. RATIO 50.5 51.1 51.9 52.5 52.5 52.7 55.7 59.3 63.2 66.4 WORLD, GEOORAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS 7 Sum ry Projectfon for 25-Year Periods MDC AGE GRCUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL I+F 1177480 1282145 1401062 1432633 1437941 1451944 1463262 1469028 MALES 0-4 44463 43373 43720 43733 43729 43731 43733 43732 5-9 44068 44497 43669 43662 43692 43701 43703 43701 10-14 45309 45015 43621 43638 43694 43699 43698 43696 15-19 46540 44570 43448 43663 43676 43672 43671 43671 20-24 47020 44119 43164 43583 43584 43587 43594 43600 25-29 48005 45298 43102 43327 43419 43454 43478 43490 30-34 46340 46496 44083 43153 43242 43321 43360 43377 35-39 43512 46837 44424 42930 43072 43195 43243 43262 40-44 34403 47329 43794 42542 42914 43021 43078 43104 45-49 32931 44994 42995 42005 42611 42735 42816 42857 50-i4 32554 41271 43383 41467 41957 42222 42361 42434 55-59 29751 31545 43270 41570 41101 41455 41692 41804 60-64 25745 28519 41736 40594 39865 40396 40751 40907 65-69 16772 25803 39195 38139 37977 38885 39329 39544 70-74 14707 20719 33345 34678 35188 36513 37122 37433 75+ 18743 25221 49256 7344l 77312 81519 85427 87499 TOTAL 570863 625606 686206 702125 707033 715107 721056 724109 FEMALES 0-4 42547 41262 41543 41529 41517 41515 41516 41515 5-9 42053 42396 41526 41480 41494 41498 41498 41496 10-14 43226 42965 41509 41468 41501 41500 41497 41494 15-19 44315 42837 41404 41524 41507 41496 41490 41489 20-24 45618 42432 41256 41534 41488 41478 41475 41478 25-29 47027 43718 41376 41424 41443 41448 41456 41462 30-34 45824 44858 42499 41383 41379 41418 41435 41442 35-39 43411 45991 43049 41302 41322 41390 41411 41417 40-44 34730 47006 42866 41112 41316 41349 41369 41377 45-49 34020 45355 42239 40849 41241 41265 41298 41315 50-54 34450 42442 43076 40774 40989 41112 41180 41218 55-59 33197 33431 43602 41577 40733 40886 41018 41079 60-64 32819 31972 43909 41666 40347 40596 40802 40886 65-69 23668 31184 43680 40838 39712 40247 40484 40597 0-74 22527 28172 40357 39204 38726 39609 39940 40114 75+ 37184 50518 80966 112843 116191 120029 124336 126540 TOTAL 606616 656540 714856 730508 730909 736836 742205 744918 BIRTH RATE 14.2 12.7 12.0 11.9 11.8 11.7 11.7 DEATH RATE 9.2 9.4 11.1 11.8 11.5 11.4 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE .6 .2 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROUTH RATE .57 .35 .09 .01 .04 .03 .02 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.946 1.998 2.066 2.064 2.063 2.062 2.061 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 75.52 79.30 82.47 84.16 85.11 85.82 86.11 IMR - BOTH SEXES 12.6 6.9 3.3 2.5 2.2 2.0 2.0 8 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS AFRICA Population Projection (thousands) AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 541962 627000 n3683 831304 948632 1072278 1200257 1332335 146678 1599132 4ALES 0-4 49569 56273 63617 70721 77659 82138 85604 88954 91417 91805 5-9 39829 46709 53314 60647 67833 74738 79358 82990 86554 89294 10-14 33407 39015 45800 52336 59579 66730 73.28 78283 82015 85670 15-19 28538 32773 38287 44961 51371 58563 65681 72577 m87 81099 20-24 23540 2m7 31922 37301 43782 50129 57261 64346 71248 76037 25-29 19785 22766 26904 30924 36119 42509 48794 55875 62940 69868 30-34 16086 19092 22005 26013 29883 35008 41317 47554 54599 61661 35-39 13022 15464 18387 21202 25048 28863 33920 40155 46350 53370 40-44 10655 12425 14787 17599 20282 24041 27795 32780 38937 45088 45-49 9114 10061 11745 14007 16670 19283 22940 26620 31515 37575 50-54 7408 8480 9357 10937 13061 15619 18141 21668 25248 30019 55-59 6057 6733 7704 8503 9942 11960 14379 16778 20133 23568 60-64 4581 5308 5894 6750 7442 8765 10637 12870 15100 18217 65-69 3315 378 4381 4868 5572 6190 7358 9029 11015 13015 70-74 2184 2493 2841 3297 3661 4237 4754 5720 7124 8787 75+ 1950 2242 2567 2939 3398 3905 4577 5307 6389 8024 TOTAL 269041 311395 359511 413004 471302 532677 596124 661505 727872 793098 FEMALES 0-4 48624 55481 62653 69578 76310 80683 84064 87334 89719 90059 5-9 39232 45984 52767 59961 66999 73724 78224 81788 85271 87923 10-14 33061 38472 45160 51897 59022 66032 72757 77312 80952 84525 15-19 28320 32483 37832 44441 51070 58157 65147 71882 76495 80216 20-24 23456 27708 31816 37082 43545 50131 57183 64162 70920 75612 25-29 20017 22854 27033 31067 36204 42606 49155 56182 63163 699s9 30-34 16602 19437 22225 26309 30228 35319 41666 48184 55197 62193 35-39 13706 16059 18830 21555 25502 29385 34432 40727 47222 54229 40-44 11268 13193 15487 18183 20812 24690 28537 33539 39785 46259 45-49 9741 10790 12649 14876 17467 20059 23863 27668 32620 38811 50-54 8013 9242 10245 12025 14156 16684 19230 22948 26701 31590 55-59 6602 7469 8624 9573 11236 13306 15756 18241 21855 25540 60-64 5148 5968 6764 7826 8685 10260 12246 14593 16997 20474 65-69 3847 4413 5131 5837 6754 7563 9017 10882 13087 15377 70-74 2662 3028 3485 4073 4643 5445 6176 7459 9144 11142 75+ 2622 3024 3473 4017 4698 5556 6681 7927 9677 12126 TOTAL 27292 315605 364172 418300 477330 539600 604133 670829 738806 806034 BIRTH RATE 43.9 42.5 40.5 38.3 35.4 32.6 30.1 27.8 25.2 DEATH RATE 14.6 13.8 12.8 11.9 10.9 10.0 9.2 8.5 7.9 RATE OF NAT. INC. 2.93 2.87 2.78 2.64 2.45 2.26 2.09 1.92 1.73 NET MIGRATION RATE -.2 -.1 -.0 -.O -.0 -.0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.92 2.87 2.77 2.64 2.45 2.26 2.09 1.92 1.73 TOTAL FERTILITY 6.064 5.847 5.506 5.108 4.602 4.105 3.683 3.314 2.973 NRR 2.260 2.219 2.138 2.021 1.851 1.683 1.542 1.419 1.299 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 52.57 53.55 54.87 55.98 57.42 58.93 60.52 62.19 63.97 et1s) - BOTH SEXES 49.33 49.35 49.55 49.47 50.37 51.32 52.31 53.36 54.46 INR - BOTH SEXES 105.1 97.9 89.4 79.6 73.8 68.1 62.2 56.1 49.6 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .1647 .1524 .1376 .1205 .1115 .1025 .0933 .0835 .0732 DEP. RATIO 92.4 92.3 91.2 88.4 85.1 80.1 74.4 68.8 64.0 59.7 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS 9 SuLMary Projection for 25-Year Periods ARICA AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 541962 831304 1466678 2078609 2539581 2784360 2895168 2953606 MALES 0-4 49569 70721 91417 87782 88480 88979 89058 89014 5-9 39829 60647 86554 87716 88436 88887 88991 88938 10-14 33407 52336 82015 88149 88495 88732 88934 88908 15-19 28538 44961 m87 88130 88036 88359 88801 88844 20-24 23540 37301 71248 88100 86743 87812 88576 88692 25-29 19785 30924 62940 86120 86035 87337 88270 88452 30-34 16086 26013 54599 82007 85801 87092 87942 88177 35-39 13022 21202 46350 76931 85745 86766 87463 87838 40-44 10655 17599 38937 71474 85087 85816 86682 87360 45-49 9114 14007 31515 64777 84163 83935 85645 86711 50-54 7408 10937 25248 55774 80674 82094 84283 85640 55-59 6057 8503 20133 46357 74243 79909 82509 84011 60-64 4581 6750 15100 36728 65948 76878 79909 81587 65-69 3315 4868 11015 27730 56191 71835 75631 77896 70-74 2184 3297 7124 18937 44418 64500 68880 72439 75+ 1950 2939 6389 19829 56694 109845 140515 157222 TOTAL 269041 413004 727872 1026540 1245188 1358778 1412090 1441730 FEMALES 0-4 48624 69578 89719 85966 86259 862s6 86270 86227 5-9 39232 59961 85271 86151 86430 86326 86227 86174 10-14 33061 51897 80952 86738 86664 86303 86180 86153 15-19 28320 44441 76495 86946 86453 86120 86100 86134 20-24 23456 37082 70920 87291 85541 85885 86029 86118 25-29 20017 31067 63163 85770 85203 85807 86049 86091 30-34 16602 26309 55197 82087 85319 85925 &,040 86022 35-39 13706 21555 47222 77407 85624 85976 85891 85882 40-44 11268 18183 39785 72437 85420 85510 85539 85678 45-49 9741 14876 32620 66355 85154 84243 85067 85435 50-54 8013 12025 26701 58139 82705 83300 84594 85169 K-r, 6602 9573 21855 49616 77740 82475 84111 84726 60-64 5148 7826 16997 40884 71307 81375 83297 83956 65-69 3847 5837 13087 32366 63832 79073 81576 82693 70-74 2662 4073 9144 23798 54220 75411 78322 80739 75+ 2622 4017 9677 30118 86520 165567 211786 234678 TOTAL 272921 418300 738806 1052069 1294392 1425582 1483079 1511876 BIRTH RATE 42.2 32.2 20.8 15.3 13.2 12.3 12.0 DEATH RATE 13.6 9.9 7.1 7.4 9.6 10.8 11.2 NET MIGRATION RATE -.1 -.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.85 2.27 1.39 .80 .37 .16 .08 TOTAL FERTILITY 5.778 4.037 2.481 2.079 2.059 2.046 2.043 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 53.77 59.36 68.05 75.60 79.65 83.01 84.35 IMR - BOTH SEXES 96.9 67.6 37.3 15.4 7.7 2.9 2.5 10 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS EAST AFRICA Populatfon Projection (thousands) AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 233001 271890 316564 367230 423099 483136 547163 614317 683620 7527n6 MALES 0-4 21432 25475 29161 33063 36874 39574 42184 44383 46078 46572 5-9 17076 20179 24085 27703 31596 35374 38118 40794 43092 44921 10-14 14386 16738 19789 23641 27197 31064 34832 37595 40299 42637 15-19 12242 14113 16424 19418 23187 26711 30554 34314 37096 39829 20-24 10047 11899 13739 15987 18878 22599 26086 29902 33656 36468 25-29 8371 9692 11513 13293 15447 18293 21965 25417 29211 32967 30-34 6785 8052 9358 11112 12813 14937 17741 21370 24794 28575 35-39 5641 6501 7740 8998 10665 12340 14435 17199 20788 24190 40-44 4593 5368 6204 7387 8578 10198 11844 13907 16631 20176 45-49 3880 4328 5065 5859 6964 8122 9689 11301 13326 16000 50-54 3121 3601 4016 4701 5433 6488 7605 9108 10674 12646 55-59 2549 2828 3258 3634 4246 4941 5932 6994 8417 9919 60-64 1917 2225 2462 2835 3153 3713 4358 5267 6254 7571 65-69 1387 1573 1820 2015 2308 2594 3085 3662 4465 5351 70-74 887 1036 1169 1351 1488 1725 1966 2370 2856 3524 75+ 827 920 1044 1177 1334 1522 1792 2110 2574 3188 TOTAL 115141 134530 156846 182174 210160 240194 272186 305694 340210 374535 FEMALES 0-4 21240 25220 28843 32664 36377 39009 41554 43696 45340 45801 5-9 16913 20057 23911 27476 31299 34993 37678 40295 42539 44318 10-14 14280 16583 19674 23475 26971 30771 34461 37170 39820 42110 15-19 12287 14021 16283 19314 23027 26494 30275 33965 36701 39389 20-24 10130 12002 13707 15912 18840 22519 25958 29723 33417 36191 25-29 8589 9849 11684 13339 15457 18347 21993 25408 29162 32870 30-34 7053 8323 9557 11327 12904 14998 17854 21470 24866 28618 35-39 5989 6810 8041 9232 10906 12468 14541 17363 20953 24336 40-44 4866 5757 6550 m71 8857 10490 12037 14088 16878 20444 45-49 4157 4655 5505 6264 7375 8485 10077 11606 13634 16391 50-54 3366 3937 4405 5209 5917 6 99 8084 9631 11138 13137 55-59 2768 3130 3656 4092 4823 5514 6552 7614 9108 10587 60-64 2214 2493 2816 3288 3667 4353 5020 6007 7032 8459 65-69 1664 1890 2124 2401 2787 3145 3772 4403 5321 6295 70-74 1143 1303 1476 1659 1866 2198 2522 3068 3643 4465 75+ 1202 1330 1486 1674 1867 2161 2599 3117 3858 4782 TOTAL 117860 137360 159718 185056 212939 242942 274976 308623 343410 378191 BIRTH RATE 46.4 45.2 43.6 41.4 38.4 35.7 33.1 30.4 27.5 DEATH RATE 15.2 14.8 13.9 13.1 11.9 10.8 9.9 9.1 8.3 RATE OF NAT. INC. 3.12 3.05 2.97 2.83 2.66 2.49 2.32 2.14 1.93 NET MIGRATION RATE -.4 -.1 -.0 -.0 -.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 3.09 3.04 2.97 2.83 2.65 2.49 2.32 2.14 1.93 TOTAL FERTILITY 6.410 6.300 6.067 5.704 5.167 4.644 4.142 3.693 3.269 NRR 2.376 2.346 2.295 2.192 2.026 1.858 1.696 1.551 1.405 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 52.03 52.26 53.12 53.73 55.24 56.83 58.50 60.27 62.15 eC15) - BOTH SEXES 49.06 48.60 48.48 47.91 48.88 49.90 50.97 52.10 53.30 IMR - BOTH SEXES 108.9 104.2 96.6 86.6 80.3 74.1 68.0 61.5 54.7 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .1700 .1623 .1492 .1316 .1218 .1120 .1023 .0918 .0809 DEP. RATIO 93.3 94.8 95.4 94.4 91.3 86.5 80.8 74.7 69.3 64.1 WORL, GEOGRAPHIC REOIONS, AND INCOME OROUPS 11 Sumary Projection for 25-Year Periods EAST A1FRCA AGE GROUP 1985 2000 202S 2050 20Th 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL N+F 233001 367230 683620 1006183 1260265 1399234 1457517 1487M76 MALES 0-4 21432 33063 46078 43916 44530 44821 44851 44817 5-9 17076 27703 43092 44167 44639 44813 44818 44775 10-14 14386 23641 40299 44742 44771 44728 44771 44755 15-19 12242 19418 37096 44838 44479 44479 44686 44722 20-24 10047 15987 33656 44596 43553 44152 44576 44655 25-29 8371 13293 29211 43277 43036 43949 44461 44545 30-34 6785 11112 24794 40754 43196 43955 44334 44406 35-39 5641 8998 20788 37705 43514 43890 44083 44217 40-44 4593 7387 16631 34188 43280 43348 43628 43956 45-49 3880 5859 13326 30458 42590 42133 43053 43632 50-54 3121 4701 10674 25722 40517 41048 42399 43129 55-59 2549 3634 8417 20869 36855 40200 41621 42341 60-64 1917 2835 6254 16286 32247 38961 40390 41105 65-69 1387 2015 4465 11635 26759 36453 38162 39182 70-74 887 1351 2856 7802 20708 32519 34523 36381 75+ 827 1177 2574 7949 25152 , 54189 70521 79162 TOTAL 115141 182174 340210 4S8905 619827 683637 710877 725780 FEMALES 0-4 21240 32664 45340 43076 43493 43569 43559 43527 5-9 16913 27476 42539 43447 43699 43621 43536 43496 10-14 14280 23475 39820 44094 43912 43596 43494 43479 15-19 12287 19314 36701 44291 43739 43438 43434 43469 20-24 10130 15912 33417 44207 42998 43261 43401 43469 25-29 8589 13339 29162 43066 42668 43250 43444 43465 30-34 7053 11327 24866 40696 43000 43428 43470 43428 35-39 5989 9232 20953 37784 43491 43543 43378 43338 40-44 4866 7731 16878 34428 43462 43234 43131 43213 45-49 4157 6264 13634 30920 43053 42307 42830 43090 50-54 3366 5209 11138 26493 41427 41660 42611 42983 55-59 2768 4092 9108 22009 38401 41484 42468 42780 60-64 2214 3288 7032 17821 34616 41206 42121 42363 65-69 1664 2401 5321 13394 30068 40039 41147 41641 70-74 1143 1659 3643 9615 24890 37831 39188 40566 75+ 1202 1674 3858 11935 37522 80128 105430 117667 TOTAL 117860 185056 343410 507278 640438 715598 746641 761976 BIRTH RATE 45.0 35.2 22.2 15.8 13.3 12.4 12.0 DEATH RATE 14.5 10.7 7.0 6.9 9.2 10.7 11.2 NET MIGRATION RATE -.1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 3.03 2.49 1.55 .90 .42 .16 .08 TOTAL FERTILITY 6.242 4.517 2.612 2.081 2.058 2.044 2.041 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 52.52 57.32 66.76 75.07 79.31 82.84 84.24 IMR - BOTH SEXES 102.7 73.5 41.0 16.3 8.1 3.0 2.5 12 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS WEST AC CA Populatton Projection (thousands) AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 185408 214927 248674 287080 329757 374622 420334 467641 515197 561493 MALES 0-4 17632 19837 22510 25414 28263 298$6 30761 31989 32546 32333 5-9 13911 16437 18624 21310 24250 27076 28728 29712 31025 31694 10-14 11456 13555 16036 18198 20852 23774 26595 28273 29298 30649 15-19 9595 11189 13241 15672 17787 20420 23325 26145 27848 28914 20-24 7806 9298 10836 12823 15171 172n6 19870 22760 25582 27322 25-29 6353 7516 8945 10419 12325 14629 16701 19287 22167 24998 30-34 5207 6102 7212 8580 9986 11856 14121 16179 18751 21627 35-39 4379 4978 5827 6885 8186 9562 11397 13629 15677 18238 40-44 3707 4150 4713 5516 6513 7778 9122 10923 13120 15156 45-49 3089 3470 3881 4407 5154 6116 7339 8650 10409 12564 50-54 2500 2842 3189 3567 4048 4760 5678 6851 8117 9822 55-59 1968 2241 2545 2856 3193 3645 4311 5174 6281 7485 60-64 1487 1694 1927 2189 2454 2763 3177 3785 4574 5591 65-69 1039 1200 1365 1554 1763 1994 2265 2628 3158 3850 70-74 658 755 871 992 1127 1294 1481 1703 2000 2431 75+ 533 613 702 810 924 1073 1259 1481 1748 2094 TOTAL 91320 105876 122424 141191 161997 183869 206133 229170 252302 274768 FEMALES 0-4 17459 19686 22300 25133 27899 29480 30363 31575 32125 31915 5-9 13962 16362 18594 21246 24137 26894 28525 29491 30787 31442 10-14 11651 13641 16027 18256 20901 23780 26534 28186 29185 30514 15-19 9726 11419 13391 15757 17964 20596 23466 26222 27895 28926 20-24 7905 9499 11165 13114 15440 17632 20253 23117 25879 27580 25-29 6586 7688 9250 10890 12800 15103 17282 19896 22759 25533 30-34 5537 6377 7456 8988 10591 12480 14761 16933 19542 22408 35-39 4677 5334 6157 7215 8707 10288 12157 14419 16584 19192 40-44 3949 4481 5124 5930 6956 8421 9980 11829 14071 16231 45-49 3295 3763 4281 4908 5686 6692 8128 9663 11490 13710 50-54 2721 3108 3560 4061 4661 5421 6402 7803 9309 11109 55-59 2186 2518 2887 3317 3789 4369 5106 6056 7414 8884 60-64 1690 1957 2266 2609 3004 3453 4006 4711 5621 6922 65-69 1223 1429 1667 1942 2243 2605 3021 3537 4197 5052 70-74 808 943 1114 1311 1534 1795 2112 2480 2941 3535 75+ 713 846 1010 1213 1449 1745 2107 2554 3095 3775 TOTAL 94088 109052 126250 145889 167761 190754 214201 238471 262896 286725 BIRTH RATE 46.0 44.4 42.6 40.5 37.2 33.7 31.1 28.3 25.5 DEATH RATE 16.5 15.2 13.9 12.8 11.6 10.6 9.7 9.0 8.3 RATE OF HAT. INC. 2.95 2.91 2.87 2.77 2.55 2.31 2.14 1.94 1.72 NET MIGRATION RATE .1 .0 .0 -.0 -.0 -.0 -.0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.95 2.92 2.87 2.77 2.55 2.30 2.13 1.94 1.72 TOTAL FERTILITY 6.298 6.158 5.797 5.378 4.806 4.212 3.755 3.315 2.919 NRR 2.278 2.288 2.220 2.116 1.928 1.726 1.571 1.415 1.271 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 49.02 50.50 52.16 53.63 55.22 56.87 58.58 60.37 62.23 eCIS) - BOTH SEXES 47.13 47.53 47.93 48.08 49.07 50.10 51.17 52.29 53.44 IMR - BOTH SEXES 113.1 103.8 93.4 82.5 76.7 70.8 64.8 58.8 52.7 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .1809 .1660 .1455 .1262 .1169 .1075 .0978 .0881 .0782 DEP. RATIO 96.5 96.1 94.5 91.8 89.1 84.3 77.7 70.7 64.6 59.4 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOMfE GROUPS 13 Stmary Projection for 25-Year Periods WEST AFRICA AGE GROUJP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 185408 267080 515197 7m42 891506 9m7a 1019807 1042986 MALES 0-4 17632 25414 32546 31199 31245 31440 3148? 31481 5-9 13911 21310 31025 30879 31093 31362 31464 31457 10-14 11456 18198 29298 30736 31013 31300 31456 31451 15-19 9595 15672 2784s 30625 30877 31200 31422 31426 20-24 780 12823 25582 30835 30608 31024 31333 31362 25-29 6353 10419 22167 30397 30487 30796 31176 31265 30-34 5207 8580 18751 29151 30124 30578 31012 3b66 35-39 4379 6885 15677 27213 29804 30357 30830 31055 40-44 3707 5516 13120 25436 29454 30037 30579 30894 45-49 3089 4407 10409 22903 29314 29540 30221 30650 50-54 2500 3567 8117 19254 28286 28984 29667 30215 55-59 1968 2856 6281 15485 26133 27903 28890 29578 60-64 1487 2189 4574 11941 22963 26498 27837 28687 65-69 1039 1554 3158 8807 19479 24540 26290 27372 70-74 658 992 2000 5724 15027 21998 23972 25402 75s 533 810 1748 5177 16856 35993 4728 53919 TOTAL 91320 141191 252302 355761 432762 473551 494922 507382 FEMALES 0-4 17459 25133 32125 30797 30657 30608 30604 30597 5-9 13962 21246 30787 30592 30614 30597 30591 30581 10-14 11651 18256 29185 30518 30623 30601 30588 30579 15-19 9726 15757 27895 30511 30601 30590 30574 30571 20-24 7905 13114 25879 30897 30495 30549 30543 30558 25-29 6586 10890 22759 30678 30511 30490 30523 30540 30-34 5537 8988 19542 29653 30285 30429 30494 30517 35-39 4677 7215 16584 27928 30112 30372 30453 30481 40-44 3949 5930 14071 26426 29958 30258 30379 30422 45-49 3295 4908 11490 24209 30121 30021 30252 30329 50-54 2721 4061 9309 20917 29556 29814 30051 30206 55-59 2186 3317 7414 17498 28046 29252 29774 30021 60-64 1690 2609 5621 14250 25664 28584 29408 29756 65-69 1223 1942 4197 11298 23179 27682 28840 29353 70-74 J08 1311 2941 8188 19601 26602 27870 28689 75+ 713 1213 3095 9420 28720 57588 73941 82405 TOTAL 94088 145889 262896 373781 458743 504037 524885 535605 BIRTH RATE 44.2 33.5 21.0 15.4 13.3 12.4 12.1 DEATH RATE 15.1 10.5 7.3 7.5 9.7 10.8 11.2 NET MIGRATION RATE .0 -.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.91 2.34 1.39 .80 .37 .17 .09 TOTAL FERTILITY 6.058 4.141 2.435 2.077 2.056 2.043 2.040 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 50.71 57.32 66.63 74.67 79.11 82.73 84.17 IMR - BOTH SEXES '02.7 70.4 40.2 17.3 8.5 3.0 2.5 14 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS AND INCOME GROUPS NORTH AFRICA Population Projection (thousands) AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 123503 140182 158445 176994 195776 214519 232760 25037? 267861 284912 MALES 0-4 10505 10961 11945 12244 12523 12699 12659 12582 12793 12899 5-9 8842 10093 10605 11633 11987 12288 12492 12483 12438 12679 10-14 7565 8722 9975 10497 11531 11893 12201 12415 12418 12385 15-19 6702 7471 8622 9872 10397 11433 11802 12118 12342 12355 20-24 5687 6580 7347 8492 9733 10265 11305 11684 12011 12247 25-29 5061 5557 446 7212 8346 9587 10128 11171 11563 11904 30-34 4094 4939 5435 6321 7083 8215 9455 10005 11054 11459 35-39 3002 3985 4820 5318 6197 6960 8088 9327 9886 10942 40-44 2355 2906 3870 4696 5191 6066 6828 7950 9187 9755 45-49 2145 2263 2799 3741 4552 5045 5911 6669 7780 9011 50-54 1787 2037 2152 2668 3580 4372 4859 5709 6457 7551 55-59 1540 1664 1901 2013 2503 3374 4135 4610 5435 6164 60-64 1177 1390 1505 176 1835 2289 3101 3818 4272 5055 65-69 8s8 1010 1196 1300 1so1 1602 2008 2739 3392 3814 70-74 639 701 802 954 1045 1217 1307 1647 2267 2831 75+ 591 709 820 951 1140 1310 1526 1716 2067 2742 TOTAL 62580 70989 80240 89639 99145 108614 117805 126642 135361 143795 FEMALES 0-4 9924 10575 11509 11781 12035 12195 12148 12062 12254 12343 5-9 8357 9565 10262 11240 11564 11837 12022 12002 11945 12163 10-14 7130 8247 9458 10165 11149 11481 11762 11956 11947 11902 15-19 6307 7044 8158 9369 10079 11067 11406 11695 11899 11901 20-24 5421 6208 6943 8056 9265 9981 10973 11323 11623 11840 25-29 4841 5317 6099 6838 7946 9157 9879 10879 11242 11556 30-34 4013 4737 5211 5994 6733 7840 9051 9782 10789 11167 35-39 3041 3915 4631 5107 ss5s 6629 7734 8946 9685 10702 40-44 2452 2955 3813 4522 4999 5778 6520 7622 8836 9584 45-49 2289 2372 2862 3705 4405 4882 5658 6399 7497 8711 50-54 1927 2197 2279 2756 3578 4268 4744 5514 6253 7344 55-59 1647 1822 2081 2164 2624 3422 4098 4571 5333 6068 60-64 1244 1517 1683 1930 2014 2454 3219 3875 4343 5093 65-69 960 1094 1339 1494 1725 1813 2223 2942 3569 4031 70-74 712 781 895 1103 1244 1452 1542 1911 2561 3142 75+ 707 848 978 1130 1382 1650 1976 2257 2724 3569 TOTAL 60973 69194 78204 87355 96631 105905 114955 123735 132500 141117 BIRTH RATE 36.2 34.3 30.8 28.0 25.6 23.3 21.3 20.0 18.8 DEATH RATE 10.6 946 8.6 7.8 7.3 6.9 6.7 6.5 6.4 RATE OF NAT. INC. 2.56 2.47 2.23 2.02 1.83 1.63 1.46 1.35 1.23 NET MIGRATION RATE -.3 -.2 -.1 -.1 -.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.53 2.45 2.21 2.02 1.83 1.63 1.46 1.35 1.23 TOTAL FERTILITY 5.032 4.547 4.012 3.541 3.147 2.797 2.531 2.401 2.306 NRR 2.022 1.879 1.706 1.537 1.379 1.241 1.142 1.099 1.071 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 50.99 60.84 62.74 64.62 66.01 67.44 68.92 70.47 72.08 etIS) - BOTH SEXES 53.17 53.65 54.30 55.07 55.89 56.74 57.62 58.53 59.49 IMR - BOTH SEXES 80.1 69.7 59.7 50.5 45.1 39.7 33.9 28.2 22.2 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .1208 .1031 .0866 .0717 .0641 .0562 .0479 .0395 .0308 DEP. RATIO 85.1 82.3 78.7 72.7 67.4 61.2 56.3 53.0 50.9 49.6 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS 15 SuLmary Projection for 25-Year Periods NORTH AFRICA AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2S00 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 123553 176994 267861 342883 387810 407537 417844 422864 MALES 0-4 10505 12244 12793 12667 12705 12719 12719 12716 5-9 8842 11633 12438 12670 12704 12711 12710 12706 10-14 7565 10497 12418 12670 12710 12704 12706 12703 15-19 6702 9872 12342 12667 12679 12680 12694 12696 20-24 5687 8492 12011 12669 12581 12637 12668 12675 25-29 5061 7212 11563 12446 12512 12591 12633 12642 30-34 4094 6321 11054 12101 12481 12560 12596 12606 35-39 3002 5318 9886 12013 12427 12520 12549 12565 40-44 2355 4696 9187 11849 12353 12430 12475 12510 45-49 2145 3741 7780 11417 12259 12262 12372 12429 50-54 1787 2668 6457 10798 11870 12061 12217 12296 55-59 1540 2013 5435 10003 11256 11807 11999 12093 60-64 1177 1726 4272 8501 10738 11419 11682 11795 65-69 888 1300 3392 7288 9952 10843 11179 11342 70-74 639 954 2267 5411 8683 9983 10386 10655 75+ 591 951 2067 6703 14686 19663 22706 24141 TOTAL 62580 89639 135361 171873 192600 201590 206291 208568 FEMALES 0-4 9924 11781 12254 12092 12110 12109 12107 12103 5-9 8357 11240 11945 12112 12117 12108 12101 12097 10-14 7130 10165 11947 12126 12129 12105 12097 12095 15-19 6307 9369 11899 12144 12113 12092 12091 12093 20-24 5421 8056 11623 12187 12048 12075 12085 12091 25-29 4841 6838 11242 12025 12024 12066 12082 12086 30-34 4013 5994 10789 11738 12035 12068 12077 12077 35-39 3041 5107 9685 11695 12021 12061 12060 12063 40-44 2452 4522 8836 11583 12000 12018 12029 12043 45-49 2289 3705 7497 11226 11981 11915 11985 12016 50-54 1927 2756 6253 10729 11722 11826 11933 11980 55-59 1647 2164 5333 10108 11292 11739 11869 11925 60-64 1244 1930 4343 8813 11027 11585 11769 11837 65-69 960 1494 3569 7673 10585 11351 11589 11700 70-74 712 1103 2561 5995 9729 10979 11264 11484 75+ 707 1130 2724 8763 20278 27851 32415 34605 TOTAL 60973 87355 132500 171010 195211 205948 211553 214295 BIRTH RATE 33.6 23.3 16.6 13.6 12.5 12.0 11.8 DEATH RATE 9.5 7.0 6.8 8.7 10.5 11.0 11.4 NET MIGRATION RATE -.2 -.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.40 1.66 .99 .49 .20 .10 .05 TOTAL FERTILITY 4.480 2.826 2.188 2.078 2.068 2.e6z 2.060 eCO) BOTH SEXES 61.01 67.73 74.54 79.27 82.06 84.28 85.14 IMR - BOTH SEXES 69.6 39.5 16.6 7.2 4.3 2.5 2.2 16 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS AMERICA Poputatfon Projection (thousands) AGE GROUP 1985 190 195 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 667381 720914 776830 829875 879231 926593 973651 1019274 1061325 1098600 MALES 0-4 37721 39329 40225 39093 37856 38000 39031 39577 39369 38912 5-9 34789 37373 39080 40031 38940 37727 37889 38933 39489 39290 10-14 33525 34668 37295 39017 39973 38889 37683 37849 38892 39449 15-19 32300 33359 34548 37187 38914 39872 38798 37602 37769 38813 20-24 31568 32038 33180 34395 37037 38758 39716 38649 37453 37616 25-29- 28587 31267 31847 33019 34244 36868 38580 39530 38459 37259 30-34 25059 28304 31064 31676 32857 34075 36686 38389 39329 38259 35-39 20930 24774 28074 30843 31471 32647 33862 36462 38158 39097 40-44 16820 20614 24476 27773 30539 31166 32340 33554 36140 37836 45-49 14052 16440 20215 24043 27322 30058 30694 31871 33091 35674 50-54 12428 13552 15911 19617 23382 26605 29303 29957 31146 32385 55-59 11529 11742 12852 15151 18754 22406 25556 28207 28898 30117 60-64 10055 10571 10817 11901 14116 17562 21066 24124 26723 27476 65-69 7941 8804 9325 9612 10662 12746 15976 19282 22215 24740 70-74 5974 6442 7238 7762 8103 9073 10973 13909 16940 19692 75+ 7120 7616 8483 9755 11081 12181 13664 16236 20405 25695 TOTAL 330398 356894 384628 410875 435251 458634 481818 504131 524476 542309 FEMALES 0-4 36417 37765 38586 37466 36242 36353 37312 37806 37580 37115 5-9 33717 36135 37581 38453 37366 36160 36284 37252 37751 37529 10-14 32518 33630 36095 37557 38431 37347 36144 36269 37233 37730 15-19 31422 32431 33596 36074 37537 38407 37323 36121 36241 37201 20-24 31116 31316 32416 33604 36075 37526 38386 37296 36082 36188 25-29 28459 30994 31304 32430 33612 36065 37501 38349 37243 36013 30-34 25197 28324 30940 31276 32401 33571 36011 37438 38272 37158 35-39 21234 25041 28223 30852 31193 32310 33476 35909 37330 38160 40-44 17221 21053 24883 28069 30695 31037 32153 33320 35749 37172 45-49 14543 17003 20833 24650 27831 30445 30793 31914 33088 35519 50-54 13070 14265 16721 20525 24319 27476 30076 30438 31568 32756 55-s9 12428 12701 13902 16341 20109 23854 26985 29569 29955 31104 60-64 11231 11899 12203 13409 15830 19530 23214 26315 28889 29317 65-69 9314 10479 11166 11518 12738 15104 18716 22323 25396 27970 70-74 7595 8287 9427 10147 10568 11756 14044 17531 21038 24083 75+ 11500 12694 14327 16629 19033 21017 23416 27292 33435 41277 TOTAL 336983 364020 392202 419000 443980 467959 491834 515143 536849 556291 BIRTH RATE 23.3 21.9 19.7 17.8 16.9 16.4 15.8 15.0 14.2 DEATH RATE 7.9 7.3 6.8 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.7 6.9 7.3 RATE OF NAT. INC. 1.54 1.47 1.29 1.13 1.03 .97 .90 .80 .69 NET MIGRATION RATE .0 .3 .3 .3 .2 .2 .1 .1 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.S4 1.49 1.32 1.16 1.05 .99 .92 .81 .69 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.823 2.697 2.486 2.291 2.188 2.151 2.122 2.096 2.080 NRR 1.301 1.246 1.162 1.078 1.033 1.019 1.011 1.004 1.001 etO) - BOTH SEXES 70.32 71.59 72.90 74.21 75.09 76.02 77.00 78.03 79.11 e(l5) - BOTH SEXES 58.71 59.58 60.49 61.43 62.04 62.68 63.35 64.07 64.82 ItR - BOTH SEXES 41.9 36.1 30.6 25.3 21.5 17.7 13.9 10.2 6.5 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0516 .0441 .0371 .0308 .0263 .0218 .0174 .0129 .0086 DEP. RATIO 63.1 61.0 59.2 55.7 52.1 49.4 49.2 51.0 53.5 55.8 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS 17 Suary Projection for 25-Year Periods AMERICA AGE GROJP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 667381 829875 1061325 1201001 1259882 1285224 1300544 1308110 MALES 0-4 37721 39093 39369 39174 39032 38987 38987 38990 5-9 34789 40031 39489 39011 38928 38940 38960 38965 10-14 33525 39017 38892 38732 38870 38944 38965 38963 15-19 32300 37187 37769 38548 38885 38954 38951 38941 20-24 31568 34395 37453 38643 38920 38907 38876 38871 25-29 28587 33019 38459 38899 38852 38764 38751 38765 30-34 25059 31676 39329 38902 38586 38570 38624 38661 35-39 20930 30843 38158 38139 38165 38389 38519 38565 40-44 16820 27773 36140 36825 37803 38252 38398 38429 45-49 14052 24043 33091 36252 37672 38099 38184 38200 50-54 12428 19617 31146 36714 37515 37693 37742 37793 55-59 11529 15151 28898 36659 36818 36859 37047 37195 60-64 10055 11901 26723 34258 35063 35598 36111 36376 65-69 7941 9612 22215 30582 32356 33965 34817 35157 70-74 5974 7762 16940 25463 29600 31852 32874 33250 75+ 7120 9755 20405 44421 62635 69832 74497 76914 TOTAL 330398 410875 524476 591222 619700 632604 640304 644034 FEMALES 0-4 36417 37466 37580 37319 37169 37124 37123 37126 5-9 33717 38453 37751 37190 37081 37089 37106 37110 10-14 32518 57557 37233 36945 37031 37097 37114 37112 15-19 31422 36074 36241 36815 37069 37126 37118 37108 20-24 31116 33604 36082 37001 37169 37139 37101 37092 25-29 28459 32430 37243 37397 37216 37094 37065 37071 30-34 25197 31276 38272 37540 37067 36995 37025 37052 35-39 21234 30852 37330 36950 36769 36907 37003 37035 40-44 17221 28069 35749 35865 36567 36892 36994 37006 45-49 14543 24650 33088 35565 36650 36919 36952 36942 50-54 13070 20525 31568 36466 36872 36845 36815 36828 55-59 12428 16341 29955 37097 36752 36515 36580 36672 60-64 11231 13409 28889 35649 35804 35962 36297 36485 65-69 9314 11518 25396 33366 34219 35382 35994 36229 70-74 7595 10147 21038 29716 33064 34833 35542 35780 75+ 11500 16629 33435 68900 93682 102703 108410 111428 TOTAL 336983 419000 536849 609779 640183 652621 660240 664076 BIRTH RATE 21.6 16.3 13.4 12.4 12.0 11.8 11.7 DEATH RATE 7.3 6.7 8.5 10.5 11.2 11.3 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE .2 .2 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.45 .98 .49 .19 .08 .05 .02 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.662 2.167 2.073 2.064 2.061 2.059 2.059 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 71.67 76.16 80.39 82.93 84.35 85.44 85.87 IMR - BOTH SEXES 36.2 17.7 5.2 3.0 2.5 2.1 2.0 18 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN Population Projection (thousands) AGE GROWP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 399445 440766 483233 524032 562470 600038 637907 674790 709350 741083 MALES 0-4 27401 28555 28951 28215 27203 27275 28052 28388 28157 27794 5-9 25104 26927 28171 28635 27966 27006 27122 27927 28292 28089 10-14 23657 24890 26748 28016 28504 27861 26927 27058 27876 28254 15-19 21630 23408 24678 26557 27849 28360 27745 26829 26974 27806 20-24 19511 21203 23051 24366 26285 27612 28162 27573 26683 26850 25-29 16310 18989 207m 22679 24050 26008 27379 27951 27392 26533 30-34 13730 15851 18599 20433 22382 23791 25783 27169 27764 27234 35-39 11048 13341 15511 18282 20151 22124 23561 25562 26964 27581 40-44 9035 10709 13021 15201 17980 19861 21845 23290 25296 26713 45-49 7642 8711 10383 12676 14850 17607 19487 21467 22918 24928 50-54 6451 7284 8340 9978 12226 14362 17074 18942 20914 22375 55-59 5494 6018 6822 7842 9421 11590 13668 16313 18168 20135 60-64 4348 4955 5449 6208 7174 8669 10728 12726 15281 17121 65-69 3229 3719 4262 4720 5421 6319 7698 9603 11483 13906 70-74 2393 2535 2941 3409 3828 4450 5250 6467 8157 9862 75+ 2612 2799 3027 3470 4134 4859 5777 6976 8682 11099 TOTAL 199595 219893 240729 260686 279422 297753 316259 334241 351001 366280 FEMALES 0-4 26578 27517 27866 27125 26118 26163 26884 27179 26934 26561 5-9 24481 26161 27191 27603 26921 25961 26046 26792 27112 26891 10-14 23134 24296 26015 27069 27503 26845 25907 26004 26760 27092 15-19 21181 22942 24145 25885 26961 27417 26780 25855 25964 26730 20-24 19287 20875 22707 23947 25723 26832 27320 26701 25794 25918 25-29 16289 18934 20607 22479 23763 25575 26721 27224 26624 25737 30-34 13825 15989 18696 20403 22310 23623 25461 26618 27136 26554 35-39 11161 13577 15785 18510 20241 22165 23497 25342 26512 27043 40-44 9176 10958 13392 15608 18340 20079 22011 23350 25201 26383 45-49 7840 8988 10774 13200 15416 18138 19879 21811 23156 25014 50-54 6709 7632 8782 10557 12966 15164 17866 19604 21536 22891 55-59 5784 6459 7381 8523 10281 12652 14826 17500 19236 21169 60-64 4690 5454 6130 7045 8181 9899 12218 14360 17002 18743 65-69 3602 4257 5003 5679 6590 7693 9358 11609 13714 16321 70-74 2790 3054 3670 4390 5064 5932 6989 8576 10733 12790 75+ 3323 3781 4361 5325 6670 8147 9885 12021 14934 18966 TOTAL 199850 220873 242504 263347 283048 302284 321647 340549 358349 374804 BIRTH RATE 28.4 26.0 23.0 20.4 19.0 18.2 17.3 16.2 15.1 DEATH RATE 7.3 6.6 6.1 5.8 5.8 5.8 6.0 6.1 6.4 RATE OF NAT. INC. 2.12 1.94 1.69 1.46 1.32 1.24 1.13 1.00 .88 NET MIGRATION RATE -1.5 -.9 -.7 -.5 -.3 -.1 -.1 -.0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.97 1.84 1.62 1.42 1.29 1.22 1.12 1.00 .88 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.532 3.116 2.737 2.421 2.261 2.200 2.154 2.114 2.087 NRR 1.581 1.416 1.260 1.126 1.058 1.036 1.021 1.009 1.003 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 66.83 68.39 69.98 71.56 72.66 73.80 74.99 76.23 77.53 e(15) - BOTH SEXES 56.69 57.61 58.57 59.60 60.28 61.01 61.76 62.56 63.40 IMR - BOTH SEXES 53.1 46.2 39.0 32.3 27.4 22.5 17.6 12.7 7.9 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0653 .0562 .0472 .0391 .0333 .0275 .0217 .0160 .0102 DEP. RATIO 72.8 68.1 63.8 58.6 53.5 49.4 47.7 47.9 48.9 50.2 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS 19 Summary Projection for 25-Year Periods LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL H+F 399445 524032 709350 838581 893748 915957 929020 935392 MALES 0-4 27401 28215 28157 28048 27944 27904 27902 27904 5-9 25104 28635 28292 27940 27867 27868 27882 27886 10-14 23657 28016 27876 27722 27814 27867 27885 27885 15-19 21630 26557 26974 27541 27814 27875 27876 27869 20-24 19511 24366 26683 27571 27838 27844 27823 27819 25-29 16310 22679 27392 27774 27801 27743 27731 27741 30-34 13730 20433 27764 27821 27615 27598 27636 27665 35-39 11048 18282 26964 27278 27289 27454 27556 27594 40-44 9035 15201 25296 26234 26972 27339 27466 27496 45-49 7642 12676 22918 25746 26830 27223 27312 27330 50-54 6451 9978 20914 26031 26718 26933 26991 27034 55-59 5494 7842 18168 25698 26227 26321 26478 26596 60-64 4348 6208 15281 23939 24924 25368 25779 25995 65-69 3229 4720 11483 21005 22826 24108 24818 25107 70-74 2393 3409 8157 17084 20692 22501 23394 23724 75+ 2612 3470 8682 25496 42120 48574 52578 54588 TOTAL 199595 260686 351001 412929 439291 450521 457107 460235 FEMALES 0-4 26578 27125 26934 26757 26644 26604 26601 26603 5-9 24481 27603 27112 26677 26578 26577 26588 26592 10-14 23134 27069 26760 26489 26532 26579 26594 26593 15-19 21181 25885 25964 26356 26549 26600 26598 26590 20-24 19287 23947 25794 26463 26623 26614 26586 26579 25-29 16289 22479 26624 26779 26674 26585 26559 26563 30-34 13825 20403 27136 26934 26577 26510 26527 26547 35-39 11161 18510 26512 26524 26348 26434 26508 26535 40-44 9176 15608 25201 25654 26157 26410 26499 26514 45-49 7840 13200 23156 25370 26181 26426 26471 26467 50-54 6709 10557 21536 25989 26356 26383 26372 26383 55-59 5784 8523 19236 26182 26300 26144 26193 26263 60-64 4690 7045 17002 25149 25600 25714 25968 26119 65-69 3602 5679 13714 23274 24328 25227 25725 25927 70-74 2790 4390 10733 20438 23359 24757 25377 25594 75+ 3323 5325 14934 40617 63650 71873 76747 79291 TOTAL 199850 263347 358349 425652 454457 465436 471913 475158 BIRTH RATE 25.6 18.1 14.1 12.6 12.1 11.8 11.7 DEATH RATE 6.6 5.9 7.4 10.0 11.1 11.3 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE -1.0 -.2 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROUTH RATE 1.81 1.21 .67 .25 .10 .06 .03 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.096 2.224 2.076 2.064 2.061 2.058 2.058 etO) - BOTH SEXES 68.49 73.99 79.14 82.25 83.95 85.24 85.75 IMR - BOTH SEXES 46.2 22.4 6.1 3.3 2.6 2.2 2.1 20 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS NORTHERN AMERICA Population Projectfon (thousands) AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M4F 267936 280148 293597 305843 316761 326556 335745 344484 351975 357517 MALES 0-4 10320 10775 11274 10878 10653 10725 10979 11189 11212 11118 5-9 9685 10446 10909 11396 10974 10722 10767 11006 11198 11201 10-14 9868 9778 10547 11002 11469 11028 10756 10792 11017 11195 15-19 10670 9951 9870 10630 11066 11512 11053 10773 10795 11007 20-24 12058 10835 10129 10029 10751 11146 11554 11076 10770 10766 25-29 12277 12278 11072 10340 10194 10859 11202 11579 11067 10726 30-34 11329 12454 12465 11243 10475 10284 10903 11220 11565 11025 35-39 9882 11433 12563 12561 11320 10523 10301 10900 11194 11516 40-44 7785 9905 11455 12572 12559 11305 10494 10264 10845 11123 45-49 6410 7729 9832 11367 12472 12452 11207 10404 10173 10745 50-54 5977 6267 7571 9640 11157 12243 12229 11015 10232 10009 55-59 6035 5724 6030 7309 9334 10817 11887 11894 1073C 9983 60-64 5707 5616 5368 5693 6942 8892 10338 11398 11441 10355 65-69 4712 5085 5063 4892 5241 6427 8278 9678 10732 10834 70-74 3581 3907 4297 4353 4275 4623 5723 7442 8782 9830 75+ 4508 4817 5455 6286 6948 7322 7887 9259 11723 14596 TOTAL 130803 137001 143899 150190 155829 160881 165558 169889 173475 176029 FEMALES 0-4 9839 10248 10721 10341 10124 10190 10429 10627 10646 10554 5-9 9236 9974 10391 10850 10445 10199 10238 10461 10639 10639 10-14 9384 9334 10080 10489 10928 10502 10237 10265 10473 10638 15-19 10242 9489 9451 10189 10575 10990 10542 10265 10277 10470 20-24 11829 10441 9709 9657 10352 10693 11066 10595 10288 10269 25-29 12170 12060 10697 9950 9849 10490 10781 11125 10619 10276 30-34 11372 12335 12243 10873 10090 9949 10551 10820 11136 10603 35-39 10072 11464 12439 12342 10952 10145 9979 10567 10818 11116 40-44 8045 10095 11491 12461 12355 10958 10141 9970 10547 10790 45-49 6703 8016 10059 11450 12415 12307 10915 10103 9931 10505 50-54 6361 6633 7939 9968 11353 12312 12209 10833 10032 9865 55-59 6644 6242 6521 7817 9828 11202 12159 12069 10719 9934 60-64 6541 6445 6073 6364 7649 9632 10996 11955 11886 10574 65-69 5712 6222 6163 5839 6149 7411 9358 10714 11682 11649 70-74 4805 5234 5757 5757 5503 5824 7056 8955 10305 11293 75+ 8177 8913 9966 11304 12364 12870 13531 15271 18501 22311 TOTAL 137133 143147 149698 155653 160932 165675 170186 174595 178500 181487 BIRTH RATE 15.4 15.4 14.2 13.4 13.0 13.0 12.9 12.6 12.3 DEATH RATE 8.8 8.3 8.0 7.9 8.1 8.1 8.2 8.5 9.1 RATE OF NAT. INC. .66 .71 .62 .55 .50 .48 .46 .41 .31 NET MIGRATION RATE 2.3 2.3 2.0 1.6 1.1 .7 .5 .2 .0 GROWTH RATE .89 .94 .82 .70 .61 .56 .51 .43 .31 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.867 1.988 1.998 2.009 2.020 2.031 2.042 2.053 2.063 NRR .893 .951 .958 .965 .972 .978 .985 .991 .998 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 75.68 76.74 77.82 78.83 79.49 80.16 80.86 81.59 82.34 et15) - BOTH SEXES 61.79 62.75 63.71 64.63 65.21 65.80 66.42 67.06 67.72 IMR - BOTH SEXES 10.1 8.9 7.6 6.6 5.9 5.2 4.5 3.8 3.1 qtS) - BOTH SEXES .0126 .0112 .0097 .0085 .0077 .0069 .0061 .0052 .0044 DEP. RATIO 50.4 51.1 52.1 51.1 49.6 49.3 52.3 57.4 63.7 68.9 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS 21 Sumury Projection for 25-Year Periods NORTHERN AMERICA AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 207h 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 267936 305843 351975 362420 366135 369267 371524 372717 MALES 0-4 10320 10878 11212 11126 11088 11082 11084 11086 5-9 9685 11396 11198 11071 11061 11072 11078 11079 10-14 9868 11002 11017 11010 11056 11076 11079 11078 15-19 10670 10630 10795 11007 11072 11079 11074 11071 20-24 12058 10029 10770 11072 11082 11063 11053 11052 25-29 12277 10340 11067 11125 11052 11021 11020 11024 30-34 11329 11243 11565 11081 10971 10971 10988 10996 35-39 9882 12561 11194 10861 10876 10935 10963 10971 40-44 7785 12572 10845 10591 10831 10913 10932 10933 45-49 6410 11367 10173 10505 10842 10876 10872 10870 50-54 5977 9640 10232 10683 10797 10760 10751 10759 55-59 6035 7309 10730 10962 10590 10538 10569 10600 60-64 5707 5693 11441 10319 10139 10230 10332 10381 65-69 4712 4892 10732 9577 9530 9857 9999 10049 70-74 3581 4353 8782 8378 8907 9351 9480 9525 75+ 4508 6286 11723 18926 20515 21257 21920 22326 TOTAL 130803 150190 173475 178293 180409 182082 183196 183799 FEMALES 0-4 9839 10341 10646 10563 10526 10520 10522 10523 5-9 9236 10850 10639 10513 10504 10513 10518 10519 10-14 9384 10489 10473 10455 10500 10518 10520 10519 15-19 10242 10189 10277 10459 10520 10526 10521 10517 20-24 11829 9657 10288 10538 10546 10525 10515 10513 25-29 12170 9950 10619 10619 10542 10509 10505 10508 30-34 11372 10873 11136 10606 10489 10485 10498 10504 35-39 10072 12342 10818 10426 10421 10473 10496 10501 40-44 8045 12461 10547 10211 10410 10482 10495 10492 45-49 6703 11450 9931 10195 10469 10492 10481 10475 50-54 6361 9968 10032 10477 10516 10463 10443 10446 55-59 6644 7817 10719 10914 10452 10371 10387 10409 60-64 6541 6364 11886 10500 10204 10248 10329 10365 65-69 5712 5839 11682 10091 9891 10155 10269 10302 70-74 4805 5757 10305 9277 9705 10076 10165 10186 75+ 8177 11304 18501 28282 30032 30829 31664 32137 TOTAL 137133 155653 178500 184127 185726 187185 188327 188918 BIRTH RATE 15.0 13.0 12.0 11.9 11.8 11.7 11.6 DEATH RATE 8.3 8.2 10.9 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE 2.2 .8 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .88 .56 .12 .04 .03 .02 .01 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.958 2.031 2.066 2.064 2.063 2.062 2.061 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 76.78 80.23 83.10 84.56 85.36 85.94 86.18 IMR - BOTH SEXES 8.9 5.2 2.8 2.4 2.1 2.0 1.9 22 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS ASIA TOTAL Population Projection (thousands) AGE GROlP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 2823497 3102850 3383003 3650279 3908882 4158824 4403459 4647127 4884830 5108974 MALES 0-4 175999 194785 198645 195373 194025 194521 197011 202047 204892 204712 5-9 161524 171M 191150 195441 192755 191731 192568 195411 200783 203965 10-14 168685 160336 170865 190063 194484 191912 190990 191935 194893 200377 15-19 160323 167439 159203 169731 188977 193476 191013 190191 191239 194303 20-24 138554 158660 165800 157667 168211 187477 192077 189760 189071 190253 25-29 116793 136846 156885 164028 156029 166573 185864 190581 188431 187894 30-34 107011 115244 135212 155190 162347 154474 165032 184363 189206 187228 35-39 84183 105434 113627 133499 153417 160590 152862 163443 182817 187801 40-44 69176 82583 103583 111727 131473 151271 158464 150920 161520 180921 45-49 62905 67295 80513 101173 109240 128756 148375 155593 148296 158899 50-54 56174 60371 64717 77655 97797 105708 124868 144197 151433 144483 55-59 47198 52784 56859 61148 73678 93037 100729 119369 138272 145520 60-64 36259 42906 48187 52124 56358 68262 86535 93919 111830 130133 65-69 26551 31322 37303 42207 45986 50032 61065 77856 84804 101688 70-74 18365 21126 25166 30311 34739 38177 41929 51765 66568 72894 75+ 16418 20674 24875 30232 37442 45166 52464 59793 72265 92247 TOTAL 1446117 1589805 1732591 1867571 1996959 2121163 2241844 2361144 2476319 2583318 FEMALES 0-4 166265 186539 190653 187939 186759 186949 189031 193548 195957 195466 5-9 151547 162388 183099 187851 185784 184857 185324 187694 192486 195176 10-14 158346 150394 161309 182133 187054 185080 184241 184805 187278 192170 15-19 151120 157097 149318 160280 181216 186221 184357 183624 184302 186895 20-24 130806 149434 155584 147967 159020 180020 185158 183463 182893 183746 25-29 109717 128937 147673 153935 146549 157639 178731 184044 182565 182206 30-34 100319 107916 127172 145943 152377 145145 156287 177487 182998 181755 35-39 78819 98530 106184 125414 144254 150763 143710 154921 176239 181969 40-44 65120 77151 96708 104388 123592 142389 148987 142145 153435 174870 45-49 59265 63383 75330 94668 102372 121431 140157 146858 140271 151639 50-54 53226 57152 61297 73116 92162 99812 118670 137292 144122 137859 55-59 45160 50561 54470 58651 70303 88883 96473 115074 133569 140581 60-64 36503 41805 47046 50s38 55177 66516 84477 92009 110291 128657 65-69 28192 32330 37293 4230? 46194 50412 61321 78451 85930 103822 70-74 20725 23158 26858 31324 36027 39783 43941 54223 70190 77580 75+ 22248 26272 30417 35858 43081 51760 60750 70345 85986 111263 TOTAL 1377380 1513045 1650411 17132708 1911924 2037661 2161615 2285983 2408511 2525656 BIRTH RATE 28.0 25.9 23.3 21.3 19.9 18.8 18.1 17.3 16.4 DEATH RATE 9.0 8.5 8.0 7.5 7.4 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.4 RATE OF MAT. INC. 1.90 1.74 1.53 1.38 1.25 1.15 1.08 1.00 .90 NET MIGRATION RATE -.1 -.1 -.1 -.1 -.0 -.0 -.0 -.0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.89 1.73 1.52 1.37 1.24 1.14 1.08 1.00 .90 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.479 3.162 2.868 2.690 2.541 2.412 2.344 2.295 2.246 NRR 1.478 1.355 1.248 1.200 1.152 1.102 1.082 1.071 1.060 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 63.78 65.13 66.65 68.23 69.39 70.62 71.92 73.29 74.74 e15) - BOTH SEXES 55.02 55.69 56.49 57.36 58.08 58.85 59.66 60.52 61.42 IMR - BOTH SEXES 70.4 62.7 55.1 47.9 42.4 36.3 30.3 24.3 18.4 qt5) - BOTH SEXES .0945 .0834 .0725 .0621 .0549 .0470 .0390 .0312 .0233 DEP. RATIO 65.2 61.5 60.7 58.8 54.8 51.3 49.6 49.9 50.6 52.2 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS 23 Sumary Projection for 25-Year Periods ASIA TOTAL AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 2823497 3650279 4884830 5811163 6318546 6596353 6747477 6817277 MALES 0-4 175999 195373 204892 205731 204948 204489 204434 204414 5-9 161524 195441 200783 204735 204406 204248 204288 204283 10-14 168685 190063 194893 203469 203930 204245 204309 204277 15-19 160323 169731 191239 202781 203867 204277 204227 204161 20-24 138554 157667 189071 202382 204111 204021 203814 203791 25-29 116793 164028 188431 201258 203529 203279 203162 203219 30-34 107011 155190 189206 196885 201967 202239 202468 202652 35-39 84183 133499 182817 190154 199858 201052 201856 202113 40-44 69176 111727 161520 185353 198112 200110 201136 201357 45-49 62905 101173 148296 181629 196346 199259 199942 200093 50-54 56174 77655 151433 178086 192774 196687 197510 197901 55-59 47198 61148 138272 173776 184430 191783 193632 194619 60-64 36259 52124 111830 160329 171957 184690 188198 190086 65-69 26551 42207 84804 131130 158516 175425 180802 183368 70-74 18365 30311 66568 107478 142136 162282 170006 172947 75+ 16418 30232 72265 185620 270321 330795 374830 394054 TOTAL 1446117 1867571 2476319 2910796 3141208 3268880 3334616 3363337 FEMALES 0-4 166265 187939 195957 196040 195229 194829 194793 194785 5-9 151547 187851 192486 195237 194745 194632 194694 194701 10-14 158346 182133 187278 194171 194303 194637 194726 194708 15-19 151120 160280 184302 193787 194353 194757 194735 194683 20-24 130806 147967 182893 193926 194925 194807 194618 194594 25-29 109717 153935 182565 193724 194973 194559 194422 194463 30-34 100319 145943 182998 190304 194032 193988 194162 194331 35-39 78819 125414 176239 184531 192548 193256 193958 194199 40-44 65120 104388 153435 180709 191569 192905 193795 193987 45-49 59265 94668 140271 178107 190838 192904 193449 193564 50-54 53226 73116 144122 175903 189212 191990 192541 192858 55-59 45160 58651 133569 173390 183719 189594 190980 191828 60-64 36503 50938 110291 162667 175017 186026 188843 190524 65-69 28192 42302 85930 135439 166691 181940 186417 188733 70-74 20725 31324 70190 115703 156889 176135 182985 185710 75+ 22248 35858 85986 236728 368295 460513 527742 56027i TOTAL 1377380 1782708 2408511 2900367 3177338 3327473 3412860 3453939 BIRTH RATE 25.6 19.0 15.1 13.2 12.4 12.0 11.8 DEATH RATE 8.5 7.4 8.2 9.9 10.7 11.1 11.4 NET MIGRATION RATE -.1 -.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.71 1.17 .69 .33 .17 .09 .04 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.148 2.447 2.187 2.081 2.067 2.060 2.059 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 65.27 70.83 76.59 80.35 82.70 84.58 85.33 IMR - BOTH SEXES 62.8 36.2 13.6 5.6 3.6 2.4 2.2 24 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS EAST AND SOUTHEAST ASIA Populatlon ProJection (thousands) AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 1652907 1787967 1921726 2044169 2154742 2256704 2356015 2453695 2546439 2630222 MALES 0-4 85291 96439 98110 94404 90219 88713 90386 92745 93456 92531 5-9 84518 84216 95514 97336 93797 89716 88296 90040 92473 93262 10-14 97557 84095 83839 95165 97033 93544 89512 88132 89913 92383 15-19 96882 96991 83630 83418 94771 96675 93238 89258 87923 89741 20-24 83090 96054 96206 82976 82820 94181 96131 92768 88861 87587 25-29 68640 82230 95154 95374 82277 82162 93528 95528 92245 88420 30-34 67017 67867 814C3 94336 94596 81622 81551 92927 94981 91781 35 39 51942 66175 67053 80563 93478 93785 80948 809S1 92322 9444l 40-44 42115 51096 65173 66114 79556 92411 92779 80121 80173 91573 45-49 39074 41111 49987 63872 64872 78181 90945 91402 79001 79147 50-54 35223 37671 39727 48459 62040 63086 76181 88793 89375 77350 55-59 29828 33308 35715 37815 46331 59436 60559 73351 85753 86525 60-64 22792 27335 30684 33066 35245 43404 55864 57113 69509 81653 65-69 16659 19908 24061 27260 29629 31804 39470 51062 52485 64344 70-74 11489 13471 16292 19954 22964 25184 27326 34308 44735 46367 75+ 10345 13350 16469 20466 25954 31708 37035 42078 51110 65837 TOTAL 842462 911318 979017 1040579 1095581 1145614 1193749 1240557 1284313 1322944 FEMALES 0-4 80181 92560 94337 90674 86560 85018 86520 88675 89249 88264 5-9 79575 79325 91849 93760 90241 86199 84715 86267 88472 89100 10-14 92143 79240 79037 91599 93554 90067 86056 84598 86174 88402 15-19 92296 91694 78892 78742 91347 93328 89876 85902 84475 86078 20-24 79356 91620 91110 78449 78372 90998 93019 89625 85708 84331 25-29 65553 78594 90882 90498 77993 77961 90614 92690 89370 85524 30-34 63654 64827 77847 90186 89934 77538 77554 90236 92374 89134 35-39 48586 62864 64095 77114 89501 89320 77052 77126 89838 92048 40-44 39086 47851 62000 63318 76319 88685 88591 76482 76628 89369 45-49 36200 38291 46975 60978 62385 75296 87627 87649 75755 75996 50-54 33z39 35157 37270 45862 59664 61138 73928 86215 86401 74802 55-59 28539 31867 33788 35950 44422 57910 59485 72129 84375 84798 60-64 23590 26774 30013 31962 34205 42469 55546 57280 69758 81993 65-69 18487 21318 24321 27454 29487 31792 39779 52318 54307 66616 70-74 13915 15642 18194 20957 23995 26064 28449 36051 47862 50226 75+ 16045 19023 22100 26086 31180 37308 43453 49893 61381 80598 TOTAL 810445 876649 942709 1003590 1059161 1111089 1162265 1213138 1262125 1307278 BIRTH RATE 23.0 21.6 19.3 17.3 16.1 15.7 15.3 14.8 14.1 DEATH RATE 7.2 7.0 6.8 6.7 6.8 7.0 7.2 7.4 7.6 RATE OF NAT. INC. 1.58 1.46 1.25 1.06 .93 .87 .82 .74 .65 NET MIGRATION RATE -.1 -.1 -.1 -.1 -.1 -.0 -.0 -.0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.57 1.44 1.24 1.05 .92 .86 .81 .74 .65 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.716 2.489 2.289 2.182 2.131 2.108 2.100 2.093 2.086 NRR 1.241 1.142 1.057 1.019 1.002 .996 .998 .999 1.001 etO) - BOTH SEXES 68.20 69.46 70.81 72.24 73.26 74.34 75.48 76.68 77.96 e(IS) - BOTH SEXES 56.93 57.61 58.47 59.46 60.23 61.04 61.91 62.83 63.82 IMR - BOTH SEXES 39.9 34.0 28.3 23.2 20.3 17.3 14.2 11.1 8.1 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0515 .0432 .0357 .0290 .0254 .0217 .0179 .0141 .0103 DEP. RATIO 57.9 52.9 52.8 52.7 49.6 46.6 45.9 48.0 50.2 53.6 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS 25 Summary Projection for 25-Year Perfods EAST AND SOUTHEAST ASIA AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 1652907 2044169 2546439 2840284 2950043 3012583 3053635 3074496 MALES 0-4 85291 94404 93456 92186 91751 91684 91713 91722 5-9 84518 97336 92473 91437 91490 91617 91670 91668 10-14 97557 95165 89913 90799 91506 91692 91691 91661 15-19 96882 83418 87923 9099 91753 91741 91640 91599 20-24 83090 82976 88861 91896 91855 91561 91431 91431 25-29 68640 95374 92245 92357 91419 91118 91129 91191 30-34 67017 94336 94981 91134 90432 90643 90870 90967 35-39 51942 80563 92322 88219 89465 90368 90691 90750 40-44 42115 66114 80173 85778 89234 90255 90429 90413 45-49 39074 63872 79001 86068 89581 89911 89858 89838 50-54 35223 48459 89375 88132 89057 88682 88711 88876 55-59 29828 37815 85753 8863l 86231 86373 87059 87509 60-64 22792 33066 69509 83014 81070 83428 84997 85644 65-69 16659 27260 52485 67743 75312 80142 82135 82793 70-74 11489 19954 44735 60853 70202 75698 77558 78244 75+ 10345 20466 51110 125605 150242 163782 174706 180741 TOTAL 842462 1040579 1284313 1414848 1460600 1488695 1506287 1515046 FEMALES 0-4 80181 90674 89249 87868 87447 87395 87427 87438 5-9 79575 93760 88472 87191 87213 87347 87404 87405 10-14 92143 91599 86174 86613 87233 87424 87431 87405 15-19 92296 78742 84475 86878 87512 87509 87422 87384 20-24 79356 78449 85708 87919 87750 87463 87343 87341 25-29 65553 90498 89370 88712 87567 87238 87242 87296 30-34 63654 90186 92374 87870 86834 86972 87177 87265 35-39 48586 77114 89838 85393 86110 86887 87177 87229 40-44 39086 63318 76628 83437 86169 87021 87158 87135 45-49 36200 60978 75755 84239 86907 87058 86969 86938 50-54 33239 45862 86401 87103 87198 86546 86504 86640 55-59 28539 35950 84375 88872 85625 85320 85878 86277 60-64 23590 31962 69758 84778 82155 83893 85279 85853 65-69 18487 27454 54307 70024 78734 82887 84650 85206 70-74 13915 20957 47862 65836 76953 81837 83424 83983 75+ 16045 26086 61381 162702 208034 231092 248860 258654 TOTAL 810445 1003590 1262125 1425436 1489442 1523888 1547347 1559450 BIRTH RATE 21.2 15.8 13.3 12.4 12.1 11.8 11.7 DEATH RATE 7.0 7.0 9.0 10.9 11.2 11.3 11.4 NET MIGRATION RATE -.1 -.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.42 .88 .44 .15 .08 .05 .03 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.481 2.122 2.078 2.066 2.061 2.059 2.058 etO) - BOTH SEXES 69.55 74.50 79.39 82.26 83.94 85.23 85.74 IMR - BOTH SEXES 34.1 17.2 6.3 3.4 2.7 2.2 2.0 26 WORLD, OEOORAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME OROUPS SOUTH ASIA Population Projection (thousands) AGE GROUP 1985 1990 199s 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 1055231 1182312 1308211 1431722 1557371 1682379 1803830 1925280 2045815 2162486 MALES 0-4 81638 87792 88533 88072 90176 91573 91625 93668 95545 96306 5-9 69157 7889 85222 86272 86215 88532 90174 90493 92782 94897 10-14 64081 68443 78160 84530 85665 85672 88042 89749 90142 92500 15-19 57248 63453 67797 77492 83888 85070 85136 87553 89316 89774 20-24 50031 56473 62607 66965 76629 83049 84296 84437 86913 88745 25-29 43374 49243 55588 61716 66084 75719 82174 83494 83722 86266 30-34 35985 42653 48435 54761 60870 65252 74865 81357 82754 83069 35-39 29008 35305 41864 47618 53909 59998 64393 73978 80503 81977 40-44 2449 28316 34494 40970 46675 52915 58972 63374 n912 79462 45-49 21607 23695 27421 33470 39821 45444 51605 57604 62001 71453 50-54 18931 20569 22593 26201 32052 38218 43714 49749 55652 60026 55-59 15744 17580 19140 21071 24508 30077 35970 41267 47103 52844 60-64 12328 14093 15777 17224 19031 22231 27392 32885 37874 43390 65-69 9158 10427 11964 13440 14744 16383 19249 23845 28m 33309 70-74 6267 7070 8089 9325 10544 11661 13063 15476 19319 23481 75+ 5471 6622 7686 8885 10319 11976 13688 15659 18546 23016 TOTAL 544526 610632 675368 738012 801128 863770 924357 984589 1043856 1100517 FEMALES 0-4 m54 83843 84802 84903 87146 88316 88177 8949 91554 92078 5-9 64386 7439 81232 82723 83312 85731 87109 8719 89181 90996 10-14 59404 63610 73618 80554 82169 82821 85296 86742 86908 88962 15-19 52953 58649 62892 72921 79928 81605 82331 84873 86400 86652 20-24 46302 52000 57715 62031 72079 79134 80905 81741 84386 86030 25-29 39958 45256 50965 56729 61119 71162 78287 80180 81154 83931 30-34 33146 38939 44241 49981 55786 60224 70273 77479 79506 80632 35-39 27356 32198 37954 43269 49029 54842 59333 69394 76689 78862 40-44 23655 26474 31272 36987 42300 48042 53861 58405 68473 75858 45-49 20927 22766 25575 30313 35966 41234 46944 52754 57341 67394 50-54 18127 19921 21761 24544 29197 34737 39936 45591 51373 55991 55-59 15037 16913 18687 20518 23261 27770 33161 38264 43840 49576 60-64 11797 13545 15355 17090 18899 21549 25865 31051 36023 41489 65-69 8887 10007 11622 13316 14973 16704 19216 23258 28155 32932 70-74 6126 6830 7813 9209 10703 12199 13795 16090 19726 24183 75+ 5391 6331 7340 8622 10376 12538 14983 17720 21252 26402 TOTAL 510706 571680 632843 693710 756243 818609 879472 940691 1001959 1061969 BIRTH RATE 34.7 31.1 27.8 25.8 23.9 22.0 20.8 19.7 18.5 DEATH RATE 11.8 10.7 9.7 8.9 8.4 8.0 7.7 7.5 7.4 RATE OF NAT. INC. 2.29 2.04 1.81 1.69 1.55 1.40 1.31 1.22 1.11 NET MIGRATION RATE -.1 -.2 -.1 -.1 -.1 -.0 -.0 -.0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.27 2.02 1.80 1.68 1.54 1.39 1.30 1.21 1.11 TOTAL FERTILITY 4.638 4.127 3.615 3.264 2.942 2.662 2.527 2.445 2.365 NRR 1.806 1.650 1.492 1.386 1.269 1.169 1.133 1.116 1.097 oCO) - BOTH SEXES 56.95 58.68 60.55 62.54 64.06 65.64 67.28 68.98 70.75 eS15) - BOTH SEXES 52.01 52.79 53.54 54.34 55.11 55.90 56.73 57.58 58.47 IMR - BOTH SEXES 101.6 92.6 82.2 71.4 62.9 54.4 45.6 36.7 27.8 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .1387 .1253 .1097 .0935 .0823 .0708 .0590 .0471 .0350 DEP. RATIO 76.5 74.4 71.7 66.1 60.4 56.0 52.9 51.0 50.0 49.8 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS 27 Summary Projection for 25-Year Perfods SOUTH ASIA AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 1055231 1431722 2045815 2570321 2894368 3076355 3174113 3217262 MALES 0-4 81638 88072 95545 97580 97357 97002 96926 96899 5-9 69157 86272 92782 97438 97130 96860 96838 96833 10-14 64081 84530 90142 97002 96701 96795 96836 96833 15-19 57248 77492 89316 96186 96458 96779 96807 96787 20-24 50031 66965 86913 94820 96572 96711 96631 96614 25-29 43374 61716 83722 93325 96330 96457 96336 96328 30-34 35985 54761 82754 90550 95900 95984 95967 96033 35-39 29008 47618 80503 87485 95016 95190 95596 95754 40-44 24499 40970 72912 86031 93656 94496 95199 95391 45-49 21607 33470 62001 82810 91586 94050 94659 94795 50-54 18931 26201 55652 78194 88821 92775 93553 93741 55-59 15744 21071 47103 74618 83985 90595 91644 92096 60-64 12328 17224 37874 68542 77839 87098 88724 89796 65-69 9158 13440 2877 56479 71620 81866 84826 86459 70-74 6267 9325 19319 41288 61925 74117 79446 81393 75+ 5471 8885 18546 52502 103349 141976 171534 183176 TOTAL 544526 738012 1043856 1294850 1444245 1528752 1571523 1588928 FEMALES 0-4 77254 84903 91554 92967 92708 92408 92348 92331 5-9 64386 82723 89181 92931 92501 92282 92283 92287 10-14 59404 80554 86908 92621 92093 92219 92286 92292 15-19 52953 72921 86400 92023 91915 92244 92299 92288 20-24 46302 62031 84386 91023 92192 92321 92265 92249 25-29 39958 56729 81154 90055 92286 92300 92185 92175 30-34 33146 49981 79506 87782 92181 92044 92019 92087 35-39 27356 43269 76689 85158 91630 91474 91840 92002 40-44 23655 36987 68473 84106 90692 91072 91707 91896 45-49 20927 30313 57341 81393 89193 91022 91562 91698 50-54 18127 24544 51373 77174 87412 90562 91173 91345 55-59 15037 20518 43840 73941 83948 89608 90365 90766 60-64 11797 17090 36023 68853 79586 87840 89013 89996 65-69 8887 13316 28155 57928 75769 85102 87458 88990 70-74 6126 9209 19726 43803 68862 80716 85508 87412 75n 5391 8622 21252 63713 137155 194390 238279 258520 TOTAL 510706 693710 1001959 1275471 1450123 1547604 1602589 1628334 BIRTH RATE 31.0 22.2 16.8 13.9 12.7 12.1 11.9 DEATH RATE 10.7 8.1 7.7 9.2 10.3 10.9 11.3 NET MIGRATION RATE -.1 -.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.03 1.43 .91 .47 .24 .13 .05 TOTAL FERTILITY 4.087 2.735 2.274 2.096 2.071 2.062 2.060 eCO) BOTH SEXES 58.85 65.93 73.31 78.35 81.48 83.97 84.94 IMR - BOTH SEXES 92.2 54.2 20.1 7.4 4.5 2.6 2.3 28 WORLD, 0EOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS SOUTHWEST ASIA Population Projection (thousands) AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL H+F 115359 132571 153065 174389 196770 219742 243615 268153 292576 316266 MALES 0-4 9070 10554 12001 12897 13631 14234 150tO( 15634 15892 15874 5-9 7849 8884 10415 11833 12744 13483 14098 14878 15528 15805 10-14 7046 7798 8866 10368 11786 12696 13436 14054 14838 15493 15-19 6193 6996 7777 8820 10318 11731 12639 13380 14001 14788 20-24 5432 6133 6987 7725 8763 10247 11649 12556 13297 13922 25-29 4779 5372 6143 6938 7668 8692 10163 11559 12464 13208 30-34 4010 4724 5375 6094 6881 7600 8616 10079 11472 12378 35-39 3233 3955 4710 5318 6031 6807 7521 8534 9992 11382 40-44 2562 3171 3917 4643 5241 5944 6713 7424 8435 9885 45-49 2224 2490 3106 3831 4546 5131 5825 6587 7294 8299 50-54 2021 2131 2397 2996 3705 4403 4973 5655 6406 7108 55-59 1625 1896 2004 2263 2840 3525 4199 4751 5417 6152 60-64 1140 1478 1725 1834 2082 2627 3278 3921 4417 5090 65-69 734 987 1279 1506 1613 1845 2347 2948 3545 4035 70-74 609 584 785 1033 1231 1332 1539 1981 2514 3045 75+ 602 702 720 881 1169 1482 1741 2057 2609 3393 TOTAL 59130 67855 78206 88981 100250 111779 123738 135998 148150 159856 FEMALES 0-4 8830 10135 11514 12361 13053 13615 14333 14924 15155 15123 5-9 7587 8663 10018 11369 12232 12928 13499 14229 14833 15081 10-14 6799 7543 8654 9980 11331 12193 12889 13464 14196 14806 15-19 5871 6754 7534 8616 9941 11289 12150 12849 13427 14165 20-24 5149 5814 6759 7487 8569 9888 11233 12096 12799 13385 25-29 4206 5086 5826 6708 7437 8516 9830 11174 12041 12751 30-34 3520 4150 5084 5776 6658 7383 8460 9772 111l8 11990 35-39 2877 3468 4135 5032 5n4 6601 7324 8401 9712 11059 40-44 2379 2825 3436 4083 4973 5662 6536 7258 8334 9643 45-49 2138 2326 2780 3377 4020 4901 5586 6455 7175 8250 50-54 1859 2074 2267 2710 3302 3938 4806 5486 6348 7067 55-59 1584 1782 1995 2184 2621 3202 3828 4680 5354 6207 60-64 1116 1486 1678 1885 2073 2498 3066 3678 4510 5175 65-69 818 1005 1350 1532 1734 1917 2326 2875 3469 4274 70-74 684 686 852 1158 1329 1519 1696 2082 2602 3172 75+ 813 919 977 1150 1524 1914 2314 2732 3353 4263 TOTAL 56230 64716 74859 85408 96520 107963 119877 132154 144427 156409 BIRTH RATE 36.3 35.4 32.9 30.4 28.1 26.4 24.8 22.8 20.8 DEATH RATE 8.4 7.9 6.9 6.3 6.0 5.8 5.5 5.4 5.3 RATE OF NAT. INC. 2.78 2.75 2.59 2.41 2.21 2.06 1.92 1.74 1.56 NET MIGRATION RATE -.0 1.3 .2 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.78 2.87 2.61 2.41 2.21 2.06 1.92 1.74 1.56 TOTAL FERTILITY 5.050 4.750 4.371 4.007 3.642 3.350 3.083 2.826 2.601 NRR 2.150 2.053 1.920 1.805 1.660 1.530 1.420 1.315 1.223 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 64.13 65.25 67.20 68.77 69.87 71.02 72.24 73.52 74.87 e(15) - BOTH SEXES 55.70 55.97 57.12 57.94 58.55 59.20 59.90 60.65 61.46 IMR - BOTH SEXES 68.8 61.5 53.8 46.4 41.0 35.5 30.2 24.9 19.4 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0925 .0816 .0707 .0604 .0536 .0467 .0399 .0329 .0257 DEP. RATIO 80.5 78.9 78.7 77.4 73.5 68.3 64.2 61.3 59.0 56.6 WORID, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS 29 Summary Projection for 25-Year Periods SOUTHWEST ASA AGE GROUJP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 115359 174389 292576 400557 474135 507414 519729 525518 MALES 0-4 9070 12897 15892 15966 15840 15803 15795 15793 5-9 7849 11833 15528 15860 15786 15772 15780 15782 10-14 7046 10368 14838 15668 15723 15757 15782 15783 15-19 6193 8820 14001 15597 15656 15757 15779 15775 20-24 5432 7725 13297 15666 15684 15749 15752 15747 25-29 4779 6938 12464 15576 15780 15703 15698 15700 30-34 4010 6094 11472 15202 15635 15612 15631 15652 35-39 3233 5318 9992 14450 15378 15493 15569 15609 40-44 2562 4643 8435 13544 15222 15358 15508 15554 45-49 2224 3831 7294 12751 15179 15299 15426 15460 50-54 2021 2996 6406 11760 14895 15230 15246 15284 55-59 1625 2263 5417 10527 14214 14815 14929 15014 60-64 1140 1834 4447 8m 13047 14165 14477 14645 65-69 734 1506 3545 6909 11584 13417 13842 14116 70-74 609 1033 2514 5337 10009 12467 13002 13310 75+ 602 881 2609 7512 16730 25037 28590 30138 TOTAL 59130 88981 148150 201098 236363 251433 256805 259363 FEMALES 0-4 8830 12361 15155 15204 15074 15027 15018 15016 5-9 7587 11369 14833 15114 15032 15003 15007 15009 10-14 6799 9980 14196 14938 14977 14994 15009 15011 15-19 5871 8616 13427 14885 14926 15004 15014 15011 20-24 5149 7487 12799 14984 14983 15024 15010 15004 25-29 4206 6708 12041 14957 15119 15021 14995 14992 30-34 3520 5776 11118 14652 15018 14972 14966 14979 35-39 2877 5032 9712 13980 14807 14894 14941 14968 40-44 2379 4083 8334 13166 14708 14812 14929 14956 45-49 2138 3377 7175 12476 14737 14824 14918 14928 50-54 1859 2710 6348 11625 14603 14882 14864 14873 55-59 1584 2184 5354 10578 14147 14665 14737 14785 60-64 1116 1885 4510 9035 13276 14293 14550 14675 65-69 818 1532 3469 7487 12187 13951 14309 14536 70-74 684 1158 2602 6064 11074 13582 14053 14316 75+ 813 1150 3353 10312 23106 35031 40603 43097 TOTAL 56230 85408 144427 199459 237772 255981 262924 266155 BIRTH RATE 34.7 26.1 18.1 14.1 12.6 12.0 11.8 DEATH RATE 7.7 5.7 5.7 7.4 9.9 11.1 11.4 NET MIGRATION RATE .5 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.75 2.07 1.26 .67 .27 .10 .04 TOTAL FERTILITY 4.686 3.313 2.330 2.084 2.070 2.063 2.061 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 65.67 71.32 76.66 80.25 82.55 84.47 85.25 IMR - BOTH SEXES 60.9 35.2 15.2 7.2 4.3 2.4 2.2 30 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS EhROPE AND FORMER SOVIET REPUBLICS Population Projection (thousands) AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 769"42 790333 808216 825469 842364 857207 870514 882598 893937 904625 MALES 0-4 29556 29888 28959 28228 28317 28506 28501 28389 28333 28407 5-9 29272 29482 29752 28871 28146 28242 28442 28446 28343 28295 10-14 29468 29235 29396 29696 28819 28101 28205 28411 28422 28326 15-19 30421 29377 29101 29298 29604 28740 28034 28145 28359 28378 20-24 29959 30255 29144 28931 29135 29450 28607 27916 28039 28263 25-29 30970 29763 29964 28940 28733 28945 29274 28450 27776 27910 30-34 29695 30716 29471 29747 28739 28542 28767 29109 28306 27649 35-39 27508 29374 30361 29222 29517 28526 28345 28584 28941 28163 40-44 21466 27092 28926 29985 28915 29222 28257 28093 28351 28728 45-49 21921 20991 26501 28373 29481 28478 28810 27881 27746 28032 50-54 22195 21142 20308 25703 27596 28729 27822 28188 27317 27225 55-59 19844 20938 20070 19377 24602 26477 27656 26892 27316 26535 60-64 17251 18156 19283 18649 18138 23095 24958 26210 25654 26171 65-69 9965 15050 16007 17154 16812 16489 21096 22945 24294 24012 70-74 9379 8101 12350 13345 14505 14447 14348 18498 20317 21776 75+ 12159 12716 12333 15463 18583 21440 23307 24584 28969 33824 TOTAL 371030 382276 391924 400983 409643 417430 424429 430742 436483 441697 FEMALES 0-4 28366 28488 27572 26859 26929 27107 27098 26985 26924 26987 5-9 27981 28330 28387 27515 26803 26878 27065 27063 26957 26902 10-14 28190 27978 28275 28359 27487 26779 26860 27051 27053 26951 15-19 28910 28182 27910 28240 28322 27455 26754 26839 27034 27041 20-24 28980 28910 28073 27860 28182 28270 27413 26719 26809 27009 25-29 30216 28975 28778 28012 27791 28118 28215 27366 26677 26773 30-34 29232 30169 28842 28702 27935 27719 28054 28157 27315 26633 35-39 27315 29131 30013 28742 28606 27846 27639 27981 28091 27259 40-44 21550 27148 28936 29854 28606 28479 27733 27535 27886 28006 45-49 22709 21334 26885 28697 29637 28415 28304 27574 27390 27754 50-54 23664 22339 21024 26543 28370 29323 28140 28049 27344 27180 55-59 22528 23066 21849 20624 26094 27920 28894 27768 27708 27041 60-64 22844 21646 22278 21207 20099 25477 27311 28325 27284 27278 65-69 15192 21391 20463 21226 20352 19362 24620 26478 27561 26653 70-74 15362 13580 19420 18835 19775 19089 18279 23373 25280 26481 75. 25672 27391 27587 33212 37735 41540 43705 44592 50138 56981 TOTAL 398712 408057 416292 424486 432721 439777 446086 451855 457454 462928 BIRTH RATE 15.3 14.4 13.7 13.4 13.2 13.0 12.7 12.5 12.4 DEATH RATE 10.2 9.8 9.5 9.3 9.7 9.9 10.0 10.0 10.0 RATE OF HAT. INC. .50 .46 .42 .41 .35 .31 .28 .26 .24 NET MIGRATION RATE .2 -.2 .0 -.0 -.0 -.0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .53 .45 .42 .41 .35 .31 .28 .26 .24 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.042 1.992 1.963 1.984 2.004 2.012 2.024 2.043 2.062 NRR .973 .939 .932 .949 .962 .968 .974 .984 .996 o(O) - BOTH SEXES 73.12 74.42 75.68 76.90 77.64 78.42 79.24 80.10 81.00 et1s) - 50TH SEXES 59.67 60.81 61.90 62.96 63.60 64.27 64.97 65.71 66.49 IMR - BOTH SEXES 17.5 14.9 12.5 10.6 9.4 8.1 6.7 5.4 4.1 qt5) - BOTH SEXES .0214 .0183 .0155 .0132 .0118 .0103 .0087 .0072 .0056 DEP. RATIO 51.2 52.4 53.2 53.8 53.7 53.3 55.7 58.8 62.1 64.8 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS 31 Surmry Projection for 25-Year Periods EUROPE AND FORMER SOVIET REPUBLICS AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 769742 825469 893937 922094 930123 941153 949568 953780 MALES 0-4 29556 28228 28333 28107 28420 28420 28419 28418 5-9 29272 28871 28343 28390 28402 28399 28398 28397 10-14 29468 29696 28422 28388 28397 28393 28393 28393 15-19 30421 29298 28359 28370 28367 28371 28376 28378 20-24 29959 28931 28039 28253 28294 28317 28327 28332 25-29 30970 28940 27776 28056 28194 28236 28253 28260 30-34 29695 29747 28306 27981 28104 28154 28174 28184 35-39 27508 29222 28941 27940 28003 28063 28092 28107 40-44 21466 29985 28351 27m79 27860 27929 27978 28003 45-49 21921 28373 27746 27238 27593 27725 27807 27843 50-54 22195 25703 27317 26655 27127 27393 27514 27567 55-59 19844 19377 27316 26592 26587 26907 27076 27151 60-64 17251 18649 25654 26284 25849 26210 26447 26557 65-69 9965 17154 24294 24441 24615 25168 25491 25658 70-74 9379 13345 20317 22021 22623 23534 24025 24274 75+ 12159 15463 28969 44454 48502 52073 55053 56581 TOTAL 371030 400983 436483 451198 456939 463292 467822 470102 FEMALES 0-4 28366 26859 26924 26970 26975 26971 26969 26967 5-9 27981 27515 26957 26968 26966 26958 26956 26954 1G-14 28190 28359 27053 26976 26965 26956 26954 26953 15-19 28910 28240 27034 26984 26952 26950 26950 26951 20-24 28980 27860 26809 26935 26929 26940 26942 26944 25-29 30216 28012 26677 26841 26911 26928 26932 26933 30-34 29232 28702 27315 26857 26898 26914 26917 26919 35-39 27315 28742 28091 26909 26875 26889 26896 26901 40-44 21550 29854 27886 26832 26841 26845 26865 26876 45-49 22709 28697 27390 26528 26734 26778 26820 26837 50-54 23664 26543 27344 26264 26544 26688 26750 26774 55-59 22528 20624 27708 26685 26412 26565 26648 26682 60-64 22844 21207 27284 27131 26252 26385 26498 26550 65-69 15192 21226 27561 26478 25867 26119 26269 26356 70-74 15362 18835 25280 25286 25072 25634 25897 26039 75. 25672 33212 50138 70253 73992 77341 80482 82041 TOTAL 398712 424486 457454 470896 473184 477861 481745 483678 BIRTH RATE 14.4 13.0 12.2 12.0 11.9 11.7 11.7 DEATH RATE 9.8 9.8 11.0 11.6 11.4 11.4 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE .0 -.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .47 .32 .12 .03 .05 .04 .02 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.002 2.013 2.067 2.065 2.064 2.062 2.062 etO) - BOTH SEXES 74.43 78.48 81.96 83.86 84.93 85.73 86.05 IMR - BOTH SEXES 15.0 8.0 3.6 2.6 2.3 2.1 2.0 32 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS OCEANIA TOTAL Poputation Projection (thousands) AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 24629 26735 28919 30979 32876 34556 36041 37348 38581 39733 MALES 0-4 1206 1261 1353 1376 1379 1372 1368 1358 1366 1381 5-9 1136 1226 1280 1369 1387 1384 1372 1364 1353 1362 10-14 1194 1154 1243 1294 1378 1392 1385 1370 1362 1352 15-19 1179 1210 1169 1254 1301 1381 1390 1381 1366 1359 20-24 1109 1206 1235 1189 1266 1305 1377 1382 1373 1360 25-29 1031 1147 1241 1261 1206 1272 1301 1366 1372 1366 30-34 942 1063 1176 1261 1273 1210 1268 1291 1356 1365 35-39 892 963 1081 1187 1266 1272 1203 1257 1281 1348 40-44 727 900 970 1084 1185 1258 1260 1189 1244 1269 45-49 625 n4 894 961 1072 1169 1239 1240 1172 1228 50-54 548 610 707 872 939 1047 1142 1210 1213 1148 55-59 545 523 583 679 839 905 1010 1103 1171 1177 60-64 465 504 487 545 639 792 858 961 1053 1121 65-69 356 412 450 439 495 586 730 796 896 987 70-74 263 294 346 383 378 431 515 648 714 811 75+ 277 338 400 482 566 616 690 815 1015 1209 TOTAL 12495 13535 14615 15634 16569 17391 18109 18731 19308 19842 FEMALES 0-4 1129 1203 1290 1311 1313 1306 1301 1291 1298 1312 5-9 1055 1151 1224 1308 1324 1320 1307 1298 1287 1295 10-14 1111 1075 1169 1239 1318 1329 1321 1305 1296 1286 15-19 1097 1132 1094 1184 1249 1323 1330 1318 1303 1295 20-24 1022 1138 1170 1124 1204 1259 1324 1324 1314 1300 25-29 983 1071 1182 1204 1148 1216 1260 1316 1318 1310 30-34 913 1018 1103 1206 1220 1155 1215 1253 1310 1314 35-39 861 933 1037 1117 1213 1221 1152 1207 1246 1304 40-44 684 867 939 1039 1117 1208 1213 1143 1199 1239 45-49 586 683 863 934 1032 1108 1197 1202 1133 1190 50-54 515 577 673 850 921 1018 1094 1182 1187 1120 55-59 522 501 562 658 831 903 999 1075 1162 1169 60-64 473 500 482 541 637 806 879 975 1051 1139 65-69 395 444 471 456 515 609 m 847 943 1020 70-74 324 357 404 431 421 477 570 728 803 900 75+ 463 550 639 744 845 906 996 1155 1423 1699 TOTAL 12134 13200 14304 15345 16307 17165 17931 18618 19273 19892 BIRTH RATE 19.6 19.3 18.2 17.1 16.1 15.4 14.7 14.3 13.9 DEATH RATE 7.9 7.8 7.6 7.4 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.7 8.1 RATE OF NAT. INC. 1.16 1.15 1.06 .97 .86 .79 .71 .65 .59 NET MIGRATION RATE 4.8 4.2 3.2 2.2 1.3 .6 .0 -.0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.64 1.57 1.38 1.19 1.00 .84 .71 .65 .59 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.463 2.453 2.372 2.309 2.245 2.179 2.109 2.088 2.096 NRR 1.119 1.117 1.097 1.079 1.052 1.025 .997 .990 .997 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 71.89 72.85 73.88 74.92 75.65 76.43 77.26 78.17 79.13 e(15) - BOTH SEXES 58.82 59.52 60.31 61.15 61.85 62.59 63.39 64.26 65.18 IMR - BOTH SEXES 27.0 23.5 19.5 16.1 15.3 14.5 13.5 12.9 12.4 qC5) - BOTH SEXES .0359 .0308 .0250 .0202 .0192 .0182 .0171 .0163 .0157 DEP. RATIO 56.7 54.8 55.1 53.7 52.5 51.4 52.0 53.2 55.4 58.2 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS 33 Summary Projection for 25-Year Periods OCEANIA TOTAL AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 24629 30979 38581 42555 44041 44901 45521 45834 MALES 0-4 1206 1376 1366 1368 1371 1371 1371 1371 5-9 1136 1369 1353 1365 1371 1371 1371 1370 10-14 1194 1294 1362 1370 1372 1371 1370 1370 15-19 1179 1254 1366 1375 1371 1369 1369 1369 20-24 1109 1189 1373 1369 1364 1365 1366 1367 25-29 1031 1261 1372 1348 1355 1361 1363 1364 30-34 942 1261 1356 1332 1350 1358 1360 1360 35-39 892 1187 1281 1334 1349 1355 1356 1356 40-44 727 1084 1244 1330 1348 1348 1349 1351 45-49 625 961 1172 1327 1334 1335 1340 1342 50-54 548 872 1213 1307 1299 1314 1324 1329 55-59 545 679 1171 1261 1259 1288 1304 1309 60-64 465 545 1053 1149 1223 1257 1274 1280 65-69 356 439 896 1058 1162 1208 1226 1235 70-74 263 383 714 917 1073 1124 1150 1165 75. 277 482 1015 1889 2185 2408 2600 2697 TOTAL 12495 15634 19308 21101 21786 22203 22493 22634 FEMALES 0-4 1129 1311 1298 1297 1300 1300 1300 1300 5-9 1055 1308 1287 1296 1300 1300 1300 1299 10-14 1111 1239 1296 1302 1302 1300 1299 1299 15-19 1097 1184 1303 1308 1302 1299 1299 1299 20-24 1022 1124 1314 1305 1297 1297 1298 1299 25-29 983 1204 1318 1289 1293 1296 1298 1298 30-34 913 1206 1310 1278 1291 1297 1298 1298 35-39 861 1117 1246 1283 1294 1297 1297 1296 40-44 684 1039 1199 1284 1298 1294 1294 1295 45-49 586 934 1133 1289 1291 1287 1290 1292 50-54 515 850 1187 1283 1268 1278 1286 1289 55-59 522 658 1162 1260 1246 1269 1280 1284 60-64 473 541 1051 1179 1236 1262 1273 1277 65-69 395 456 943 1110 1213 1249 1260 1265 70-74 324 431 803 1011 1178 1217 1234 1246 75+ 463 744 1423 2679 3146 3454 3722 3861 TOTAL 12134 15345 19273 21454 22256 22698 23028 23199 BIRTH RATE 19.0 15.4 13.2 12.4 12.1 11.8 11.7 DEATH RATE 7.8 7.5 9.4 11.0 11.3 11.3 11.4 NET MIGRATION RATE 4.0 .8 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROUTH RATE 1.53 .88 .39 .14 .08 .05 .03 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.428 2.183 2.090 2.073 2.068 2.064 2.063 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 72.92 76.55 80.20 82.46 84.00 85.25 85.74 IMR - BOTH SEXES 23.2 14.4 9.2 4.1 2.9 2.2 2.1 34 WORLD, GEO(RAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS LOW-INCOME ECONOMIES Poputatlon Projection (thousands) AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 2743039 3039160 3342781 3641987 3939257 4233066 4524498 4817950 5107011 5381095 MALES 0-4 184341 206347 214396 215741 218846 221791 225485 231804 235237 234029 5-9 164192 178234 200458 208914 210852 214223 217582 221757 228555 232524 10-14 166561 162413 176399 198635 207125 209137 212596 216099 220446 227419 15-19 156628 164921 160776 174685 196847 205367 207453 211000 214641 219152 20-24 133799 154504 162714 158592 172342 194477 203045 205238 208911 212742 25-29 111468 131614 152141 160313 156145 169832 191946 200576 202905 206739 30-34 101005 109511 129493 149908 157953 153852 167490 189597 198310 200793 35-39 78050 99102 107490 127339 147548 155569 151546 165139 187245 196059 40-44 64282 76189 96934 105215 124824 144855 152849 148930 162470 184556 45-49 58192 62208 73883 94244 102332 121678 141462 149418 145648 159104 50-54 51540 55558 59475 70839 90606 98494 117440 136854 144749 141192 55-59 43197 48155 51994 55795 66710 85689 93302 111668 130553 138347 60-64 33536 38990 43620 47255 50927 61248 79129 86362 103915 122058 65-69 24541 28708 33539 37769 41165 44636 54134 70517 77224 93645 70-74 16508 19284 22741 26798 30537 33580 36747 45125 59505 65488 75+ 14201 17906 21724 26286 31968 38116 44092 50059 60329 78387 TOTAL 1402040 1553646 1707778 1858328 2006727 2152545 2296298 2440144 2580643 2712233 FEMALES 0-4 175353 198803 207078 208927 212125 214795 218156 224042 227130 22z721 5-9 155207 169483 193245 202167 204703 208128 211166 214950 221265 224837 10-14 157406 153480 167743 191601 200615 203214 206722 209895 213840 220323 15-19 148620 155774 151929 -. 6190 190050 199109 201795 205406 208733 212854 20-24 126749 146565 153791 150075 164282 188167 197319 200147 203923 207470 25-29 105355 124543 144344 151670 148045 162237 186175 195463 198483 202478 30-34 95676 103242 122381 142168 149542 146026 160220 184227 193678 196923 35-39 74033 93610 101155 120239 139951 147371 143986 158198 182288 191931 40-44 61075 72124 91492 99017 117982 137590 145066 141842 156082 180158 45-49 55125 59152 70066 89180 96639 115440 134914 142455 139427 153690 50-54 49046 52878 56880 67621 86378 93757 112334 131631 139253 136472 55-59 41299 46286 50045 54025 64521 82806 90094 108379 127458 135196 60-64 33412 37878 42656 46328 50269 60431 78086 85271 103186 122010 65-69 25671 29192 33295 37781 41338 45219 54919 71719 78780 96221 70-74 18362 20666 23713 27302 31389 34766 38525 47554 63142 70001 75+ 18610 21838 25190 29365 34702 41464 48724 56628 69701 92478 TOTAL 1340999 1485513 1635003 1783658 1932530 2080521 2228200 2377805 2526368 2668862 BIRTH RATE 31.0 29.0 26.4 24.5 22.9 21.5 20.6 19.5 18.2 DEATH RATE 10.3 9.8 9.2 8.7 8.4 8.2 8.0 7.8 7.7 RATE OF NAT. INC. 2.07 1.92 1.72 1.58 1.44 1.34 1.26 1.17 1.05 NET MIGRATION RATE -.2 -.1 -.1 -.1 -.0 -.0 -.0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.05 1.90 1.71 1.57 1.44 1.33 1.26 1.17 1.05 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.900 3.592 3.292 3.098 2.908 2.725 2.607 2.506 2.397 NRR 1.585 1.471 1.370 1.326 1.271 1.197 1.157 1.130 1.098 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 60.87 62.10 63.47 64.87 66.02 67.24 68.54 69.94 71.43 eC1s) - BOTH SEXES 53.54 54.03 54.61 55.20 55.91 56.66 57.47 58.33 59.25 IMR - BOTH SEXES 82.4 75.3 68.3 60.9 55.5 49.5 43.5 37.5 31.4 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .1173 .1069 .0965 .0851 .0779 .0696 .0610 .0524 .0436 DEP. RATIO 69.1 65.8 65.2 63.3 59.2 55.4 53.1 52.6 52.4 52.9 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS 35 Suanary Projection for 25-Year Periods LOW-INCOME ECONOMIES AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 2743039 3641987 5107011 6268152 6976702 7357538 7562156 7668248 MALES 0-4 184341 215741 235237 230120 230293 230522 230584 230526 5-9 164192 208914 228555 229288 229908 230320 230434 230361 10-14 166561 198635 220446 228710 229886 230224 230390 230321 15-19 156628 174685 214641 228271 229523 229869 230175 230168 20-24 133799 158592 208911 228799 228146 229061 229636 229759 25-29 111468 160313 202905 227544 226839 227990 228893 229136 30-34 101005 149908 198310 221403 225441 227058 228141 228486 35-39 78050 127339 187245 212170 223791 226153 227298 227772 40-44 64282 105215 162470 204787 221984 224687 226014 226747 45-49 58192 94244 145648 197192 220649 221967 224067 225192 50-54 51540 70839 144749 188184 216117 218151 220939 222618 55-59 43197 55795 130553 178391 204788 212486 216510 218771 60-64 33536 47255 103915 160194 188159 204415 210371 213261 65-69 24541 37769 77224 127575 169999 193005 201083 204908 70-74 16508 26798 59505 101034 147697 177235 186619 192153 75+ 14201 26286 60329 165131 259170 344102 400113 429990 TOTAL 1402040 1858328 2580643 3128794 3452391 3627243 3721267 3770169 FEMALES 0-4 175353 208927 227130 221353 221098 220932 220921 220875 5-9 155207 202167 221265 220931 220951 220881 220825 220765 10-14 157406 191601 213840 220673 221100 220908 220799 220742 15-19 148620 166190 208733 220686 221046 220795 220701 220697 20-24 126749 150075 203923 221938 220278 220504 220520 220618 25-29 105355 151670 198483 221700 219813 220163 220408 220511 30-34 95676 142168 193678 216595 219227 219902 220262 220364 35-39 74033 120239 182288 208383 218389 219662 220016 220131 40-44 61075 99017 156082 202107 217568 219066 219533 219752 45-49 55125 89180 139427 195847 217578 217540 218726 219184 50-54 49046 67621 139253 188427 215363 215791 217526 218428 55-59 41299 54025 127458 180623 207435 213229 215963 217307 60-64 33412 46328 103186 165172 195278 209511 213859 215665 65-69 25671 37781 78780 134285 183024 204386 210536 213126 70-74 18362 27302 63142 110858 167625 197346 204609 208958 75+ 18610 29365 69701 209780 358537 489679 575685 620957 TOTAL 1340999 1783658 2526368 3139358 3524310 3730294 3840889 3898079 BIRTH RATE 28.7 21.6 16.3 13.7 12.7 12.1 11.9 DEATH RATE 9.7 8.2 8.2 9.5 10.5 11.0 11.3 NET MIGRATION RATE -.1 -.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.89 1.35 .82 .43 .21 .11 .06 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.572 2.749 2.241 2.079 2.065 2.056 2.054 eO) - BOTH SEXES 62.23 67.49 73.78 78.56 81.49 83.95 84.93 INR - BOTH SEXES 75.3 49.3 23.3 9.4 5.2 2.6 2.3 36 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS LOWER-MMIDDLEINCOME ECONOMIS Poputatio. Projection (thousands) AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 519741 575680 634722 695012 756543 817709 878783 939369 998962 1056764 MALES 0-4 37112 38997 40802 41963 43007 43582 44368 44973 45414 45574 5-9 33130 36320 38290 40152 41395 42474 43100 43940 44604 45109 10-14 30079 32836 36046 38024 39907 41165 42260 42910 43775 44467 15-19 27356 29760 32537 35744 37742 39636 40909 42021 42697 43590 20-24 23716 26873 29321 32099 35325 37343 39254 40549 41690 42405 25-29 20836 23168 26374 28827 31639 34874 36913 38848 40174 41353 30-34 17612 20336 22712 25912 28398 31222 34461 36524 38486 39847 35-39 14158 17158 19904 22276 25488 27982 30812 34057 36148 38141 40-44 11346 13732 16723 19450 21826 25025 27520 30354 33603 35722 45-49 10452 10920 13274 16217 18923 21279 24449 26940 29774 33025 50-54 9210 9932 10409 12697 15570 18225 20547 23673 26154 28981 55-59 7907 8563 9261 9739 11929 14698 17278 19553 22617 25083 60-64 6020 7101 7717 8379 8857 10919 13543 16021 18231 21209 65-69 4132 5119 6070 6635 7256 m79 9628 12052 14380 16491 70-74 3348 3216 4019 4808 5314 5885 6358 8012 10159 12268 75'. 3458 3807 3904 4538 5545 6534 7564 8594 10543 13532 TOTAL 259871 287839 317361 347460 378120 408581 438963 469021 498450 526797 FEMALES 0-4 35m 37631 39353 40447 41426 41949 42672 43220 43608 43722 5-9 31957 35074 37017 38795 39970 40980 41548 42318 42918 43362 10-14 29011 31698 34843 36798 38597 39785 40808 41396 42188 42811 15-19 26392 28740 31456 34604 36582 38393 39595 40636 41248 42066 20-24 23383 25999 28397 31124 34302 36304 38136 39363 40434 41085 25-29 20706 22942 25614 28025 30794 33989 36017 37875 39136 40247 30-34 17676 20308 22584 25265 2710 30495 33700 35753 37638 38934 35-39 14187 17325 19976 22256 24958 27412 30205 33417 35495 37408 40-44 11521 13881 17010 19653 21942 24642 27099 29898 33116 35219 45-49 10826 11230 13571 16671 19304 21584 24277 26733 29537 32761 50-54 9549 10477 10893 13201 16262 18868 21134 23815 26273 29082 55-59 8411 9128 10040 10468 12734 15735 18305 20555 23224 25687 60-64 6645 7865 8566 9457 9907 12109 15031 17558 19792 22454 65-69 4806 5975 7112 7795 8665 9138 11256 14074 16549 18M 70-74 4090 4021 5061 6084 6746 7578 8083 10082 12756 15165 75+ 4935 5548 5869 6910 8525 10168 11955 13656 16600 21189 TOTAL 259870 287842 317361 347552 378423 409129 439820 470348 500512 529967 BIRTH RATE 30.0 28.2 26.2 24.4 22.7 21.3 20.1 18.9 17.8 DEATH RATE 8.8 8.2 7.6 7.2 6.9 6.8 6.6 6.6 6.5 RATE OF NAT. INC. 2.12 2.00 1.86 1.73 1.57 1.45 1.34 1.23 1.13 NET MIGRATION RATE -.8 -.5 -.4 -.3 -.2 -.1 - 1 -.0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.04 1.95 1.81 1.70 1.55 1.44 1.33 1.23 1.13 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.879 3.571 3.282 3.028 2.798 2.633 2.505 2.407 2.323 NRR 1.697 1.573 1.462 1.366 1.270 1.202 1.155 1.120 1.092 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 64.58 65.77 67.13 68.53 69.58 70.71 71.91 73.20 74.57 a(15) - BOTH SEXES 54.84 55.44 56.19 57.00 57.75 58.55 59.40 60.31 61.28 INR - BOTH SEXES 58.1 52.8 46.6 40.3 36.3 32.2 28.1 23.8 19.3 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0791 .0714 .0626 .0537 .0487 .0434 .0380 .0324 .0264 DEP. RATIO 74.5 71.6 68.7 64.7 60.9 57.0 54.4 53.0 52.4 52.2 WORLD, OEOORAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS 37 summary Projection for 25-Year Periods LOW ER-MIDDLEINCOME ECONOMIES AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 519741 695012 998962 1249300 1395432 1461784 1493914 1509759 MALES 0-4 37112 41963 45414 45245 45219 45226 45226 45218 5-9 33130 40152 44604 45077 45166 45183 45191 45185 10-14 30079 38024 43775 45039 45136 45159 45183 45178 15-19 27356 35744 42697 45010 45021 45104 45150 45152 20-24 23716 32099 41690 44888 44849 44991 45061 45075 25-29 20836 28827 40174 44366 44727 44833 44926 44953 30-34 17612 25912 38486 43526 44440 44670 44781 44824 35-39 14158 22276 36148 42473 44207 44479 44619 44690 40-44 11346 19450 33603 41124 43927 44164 44395 44506 45-49 10452 16217 29774 39791 43488 43747 44071 44226 50-54 9210 12697 26154 37732 42411 43172 43532 43746 55-59 7907 9739 22617 35155 40659 42124 42726 43019 60-64 6020 8379 18231 31585 38281 40737 41571 41979 65-69 4132 6635 14380 27356 35062 38729 39811 40418 70-74 3348 4808 10159 21626 31060 35709 37190 38040 75+ 3458 4538 10543 30347 55718 72181 81745 86388 TOTAL 259871 347460 498450 620338 689371 720208 735178 742597 FEMALES 0-4 35773 40447 43608 43334 43262 43229 43220 43213 5-9 31957 38795 42918 43218 43241 43208 43198 43191 10-14 29011 36798 42188 43224 43234 43200 43193 43189 15-19 26392 34604 41248 43268 43168 43182 43183 43184 20-24 23383 31124 40434 43280 43099 43156 43162 43170 25-29 20706 28025 39136 42964 43121 43126 43142 43149 30-34 17676 25265 37638 42318 42975 43085 43107 43120 35-39 14187 22256 35495 41461 42889 43015 43055 43080 -44 11521 19653 33116 40353 42803 42864 42977 43022 45-49 10826 16671 29537 39318 42628 42674 42866 42935 50-54 9549 13201 26273 37708 42018 42492 42695 42805 55-59 8411 10468 23224 35759 40942 42039 42442 42605 60-64 6645 9457 19792 33014 39477 41504 42071 42315 65-69 4806 7795 16549 29772 37490 40747 41478 41888 70-74 4090 6084 12756 25066 35073 39490 40564 41202 75+ 4935 6910 16600 44902 80639 104565 118383 125095 TOTAL 259870 347552 500512 628962 706060 741575 758736 767162 BIRTH RATE 28.0 21.3 16.0 13.4 12.4 12.0 11.8 DEATH RATE 8.2 6.8 7.1 9.0 10.6 11.1 11.4 NET MIGRATION RATE -.6 -.1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.94 1.45 .89 .44 .19 .09 .04 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.553 2.653 2.201 2.072 2.063 2.057 2.056 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 65.91 70.95 76.56 80.50 82.75 84.60 85.34 IMR BOTH SEXES 52.4 32.1 14.5 6.3 3.9 2.4 2.2 38 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS UPPER-MIDDLE-INCOME ECONOMIES Poputatfon Projection (thousands) AGE GROIP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 454297 502963 554634 607227 660129 714688 772052 830744 889388 947198 MALES 0-4 30182 32905 34620 35248 35747 37392 39681 41422 42558 43411 5-9 27717 29689 32445 34228 34929 35477 37167 39491 41274 42454 10-14 26102 27533 29518 32288 34090 34812 35381 37083 39419 41218 15-19 23614 25893 27335 29341 32121 33937 34680 35261 36972 39318 20-24 21681 23287 25581 27065 29096 31888 33730 34485 35080 36800 25-29 19017 21294 22932 25271 26791 28843 31655 33503 34271 34880 30-34 16393 18663 20960 22643 25008 26549 28625 31432 33287 34069 35-39 13232 16068 18345 20671 22382 24756 26317 28394 31199 33063 40-44 10707 12920 15738 18030 20366 22085 24462 26026 28103 30900 45-49 9363 10374 12559 15356 17642 19961 21683 24048 25615 27690 50-54 8067 8953 9946 12093 14837 17084 19372 21087 23433 25005 55-59 6755 7543 8398 9373 11446 14092 16283 18525 20235 22560 60-64 5338 6105 6846 7668 8601 10563 13074 15186 17368 19072 65-69 3617 4577 5266 5960 6730 7600 9409 11731 13728 15815 70-74 2928 2849 3635 4242 4871 5558 6337 7932 9992 11815 75+ 3124 3428 3567 4240 5177 6219 7374 8679 10727 13665 TOTAL 22M837 252080 277691 303719 329834 356815 385229 414287 443262 471735 FEMALES 0-4 29042 31751 33362 33924 34357 35882 38016 39610 40619 41351 5-9 26748 28623 31366 33041 33669 34143 35706 37867 39494 40536 10-14 25251 26598 28490 31249 32943 33588 34079 35651 37820 39459 15-19 22850 25099 26466 28377 31147 32855 33518 34018 35599 37778 20-24 21037 22626 24906 26304 28239 31026 32758 33431 33944 35536 25-29 18539 20779 22407 24720 26150 28108 30915 32656 33341 33868 30-34 15851 18302 20572 22233 24571 26019 27996 30802 32552 33251 35-39 12958 15636 18108 20398 22078 24426 25889 27869 30676 32435 40-44 10697 12760 15444 17924 20223 21908 24258 25727 27710 30516 45-49 9501 10494 12554 15229 17708 19999 21686 24032 25506 27493 50-54 8361 9255 10254 12301 14958 17416 19693 21377 23718 25199 55-59 7218 8050 8948 9950 11975 14588 17018 19275 20959 23294 60-64 6006 6808 7639 8541 9544 11520 14075 16468 18704 20394 65-69 4191 5454 6247 7080 7987 8964 10873 13350 15699 17915 70-74 3659 3552 4707 5487 6317 7184 8124 9938 12306 14599 75+ 4550 5097 5473 6751 8428 10246 12219 14385 17481 21839 TOTAL 226459 250884 276943 303508 330295 357873 386823 416457 446127 475464 BIRTH RATE 29.0 27.3 25.1 23.1 22.2 21.6 20.7 19.7 18.7 DEATH RATE 8.0 7.3 6.7 6.2 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 RATE OF NAT. INC. 2.10 2.00 1.85 1.69 1.60 1.55 1.47 1.37 1.26 NET MIGRATION RATE -.6 -.5 -.3 -.2 -.1 -.0 -.0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.04 1.96 1.81 1.67 1.59 1.54 1.47 1.36 1.26 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.670 3.409 3.140 2.912 2.798 2.742 2.677 2.612 2.547 NRR 1.631 1.534 1.430 1.339 1.295 1.286 1.270 1.245 1.223 e(0) - BOTH SEXES 66.49 67.94 69.64 71.20 72.23 73.30 74.43 75.63 76.89 etl5) - BOTH SEXES 56.57 57.44 58.55 59.55 60.16 60.80 61.47 62.16 62.88 INR - BOTH SEXES 60.0 53.2 46.0 39.2 33.9 28.2 22.2 16.0 9.5 qt5) - BOTH SEXES .0753 .0660 .0565 .0477 .0414 .0346 .0274 .0199 .0121 DEP. RATIO 70.0 67.1 65.1 62.6 59.1 56.2 55.1 55.7 56.5 57.0 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS 39 Sumry Projection for 25-Year Periods UPPER-MIDDLEINCOME ECONOMIES AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 454297 607227 889388 1155153 1332825 1432746 1471841 1484873 MALES 0-4 30182 35248 42558 44973 44636 44394 44352 44356 5-9 27717 34228 41274 44825 44409 44267 44304 44329 10-14 26102 32288 39419 44379 43980 44225 44322 44339 15-19 23614 29341 36972 43905 43923 44301 44347 44324 20-24 21681 27065 35080 43060 44450 44395 44289 44239 25-29 19017 25271 34271 41974 44575 44315 44119 44095 30-34 16393 22643 33287 40579 44300 43981 43897 43958 35-39 13232 20671 31199 38564 43682 43409 43729 43859 40-44 10707 18030 28103 35947 42995 43171 43649 43741 45-49 9363 15356 25615 33834 41898 43465 43546 43503 50-54 8067 12093 23433 32550 40370 43179 43112 43008 55-59 6755 9373 20235 30785 38246 42218 42191 42243 60-64 5338 7668 17368 27657 35223 40596 40755 41250 65-69 3617 5960 13728 ?-325 31260 38413 39182 39897 70-74 2928 4242 9992 19108 27173 35114 37338 37820 75+ 3124 4240 10727 28687 50265 69832 83231 86751 TOTAL 227837 303719 443262 574151 661386 709275 726361 731713 FEM4ALES 0-4 29042 33924 40619 42849 42543 42323 42285 42290 5-9 26748 33041 39494 42710 42333 42209 42249 42274 10-14 25251 31249 37820 42289 41924 42170 42269 42287 15-19 22850 28377 35599 41872 41890 42260 42313 42291 20-24 21037 26304 33944 41165 42462 42411 42317 42267 25-29 18539 24720 33341 40347 42687 42433 42247 42220 30-34 15851 22233 32552 39211 42519 42206 42123 42179 35-39 12958 20398 30676 37464 42024 41747 42045 42168 40-44 10697 17924 27710 35144 41508 41641 42082 42168 45-49 9501 15229 25506 33344 40663 42107 42160 42114 50-54 8361 12301 23718 32484 39622 42158 42059 41945 55-59 7218 9950 20959 31314 38164 41730 41649 41674 60-64 6006 8541 18704 28960 35989 40873 40938 41385 65-69 4191 7080 15699 25450 33098 39826 40453 41107 70-74 3659 5487 12306 22342 30389 38146 40264 40662 75+ 4550 6751 17481 44056 73625 99229 118025 124128 TOTAL 226459 303508 446127 581001 671439 723471 745479 753159 BIRTH RATE 27.0 21.3 17.0 13.9 12.5 11.9 11.8 DEATH RATE 7.3 6.1 6.7 8.2 9.7 10.9 11.4 NET MIGRATION RATE -.5 -.1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.93 1.53 1.05 .57 .29 .11 .04 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.386 2.739 2.393 2.092 2.062 2.059 2.058 etO) - BOTH SEXES 68.13 73.53 78.55 81.77 83.60 85.05 85.63 INR - BOTH SEXES 52.9 27.5 7.3 3.6 2.8 2.2 2.1 40 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS HIGH-INCOME ECONOMIES Population Projection (thousands) AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 795905 821755 847354 869349 888513 90388O 916367 927101 935661 941463 MALES 0-4 27688 27851 28575 27857 27412 27172 2726 27580 27774 2760 5-9 27939 27971 28073 28720 27954 27471 27198 27304 27572 27748 10-14 30301 28152 28141 28188 28799 28006 27500 27216 27310 27566 15-19 32324 30481 28294 28229 28243 28825 28012 27496 27202 27286 20-24 33724 32670 30748 28462 28329 28287 28820 27986 27448 27132 25-29 32390 34193 33024 30965 28596 28385 28278 28774 27908 27340 30-34 31032 32774 34464 33176 31050 28627 28362 28227 28694 27805 35-39 29909 31244 32907 34504 33173 31014 28564 28281 28128 28576 40-44 24900 29906 31194 32796 34359 33013 30849 28407 28116 27956 45-49 22822 24679 29615 30879 32471 34016 32689 30559 28148 27868 50-54 21238 22305 24159 29016 30291 31869 33408 32133 30065 27714 55-59 20212 20380 21489 23348 28122 29394 30969 32519 31332 29365 60-64 17564 18889 19191 20360 22242 26863 28150 29743 31330 30281 65-69 12825 15756 17148 17609 18852 20693 25115 26435 28069 29723 70-74 11305 10762 13452 14905 15545 16781 18568 22717 24091 25789 75+ 14147 15710 16652 19631 23139 26035 28908 32420 38433 43943 TOTAL 390320 403723 417124 428645 438577 446451 452686 457798 461620 463951 FEMALES 0-4 26268 26481 27154 26463 26034 25802 25915 26181 26360 26437 5-9 26493 26573 26723 27317 26575 26105 25840 25934 26181 26342 10-14 28714 26n2 26757 26849 27406 26635 26142 25863 25944 26178 15-19 307S4 28963 26919 26894 26945 27468 26671 26163 25869 25935 20-24 32589 31222 29331 27180 27076 27065 27535 26709 26172 25849 25-29 31502 33134 31648 29631 27390 27212 27138 27572 26712 26141 30-34 30379 31892 33429 31850 29768 27475 27250 27151 27558 26674 35-39 29429 30589 32041 33514 31899 29787 27471 27232 27117 27510 40-44 24707 29455 30586 32006 33459 31836 29721 27409 27166 27048 45-49 22884 24592 29306 30430 31848 33295 31686 29590 27294 27058 50-54 21677 22628 24336 29019 30155 31572 33022 31444 29381 27115 55-59 21519 21267 22239 23959 28612 29755 31180 32644 31115 29104 60-64 20797 208n 20697 21709 23454 28053 29217 30664 32157 30704 65-69 16188 19782 19974 19919 20998 22746 27279 28484 29975 31525 70-74 15781 14837 18327 18695 18816 19933 21695 26144 27422 28994 75+ 25905 29023 30761 35269 39502 42691 45917 50121 57617 64897 TOTAL 405585 418032 430230 440704 449935 457430 463681 469303 474041 477512 BIRTH RATE 13.5 13.4 12.7 12.2 11.9 11.8 11.7 11.7 11.6 DEATH RATE 8.9 8.7 8.5 8.5 8.9 9.3 9.6 9.9 10.4 RATE OF NAT. INC. .46 .47 .42 .37 .30 .25 .21 .17 .12 NET MIGRATION RATE 1.8 1.4 1.0 .7 .5 .3 .2 .1 .0 GROWTH RATE .64 .61 .51 .44 .34 .27 .23 .18 .12 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.n8 1.786 1.797 1.846 1.896 1.942 1.982 2.019 2.054 NRR .837 .855 .860 .886 .913 .937 .957 .975 .993 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 76.14 77.22 78.27 79.26 79.88 80.51 81.17 81.85 82.56 e1S) - BOTH SEXES 62.14 63.10 64.06 64.97 65.52 66.09 66.68 67.30 67.93 INR - BOTH SEXES 9.2 7.9 6.8 6.0 5.4 4.8 4.2 3.6 3.1 qC5) - BOTH SEXES .0116 .0101 .0088 .0078 .0071 .0064 .0057 .0050 .0044 DEP. RATIO 49.5 48.8 49.8 50.4 51.2 52.2 55.6 59.7 64.5 69.8 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS 41 Summary Projection for 25-vear Periods HIGH.INCOME ECONOMIES AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 795905 869349 935661 930089 916408 920866 926274 929183 MALES 0-4 27688 27857 2m4 27633 27612 27625 27634 27634 5-9 27939 28720 27572 27516 27584 27614 27619 27616 10-14 30301 28188 27310 27501 27614 27626 27618 27612 15-19 32324 28229 2no2 27649 27648 27615 27598 27594 20-24 33724 28462 27448 27747 27602 27550 27544 27549 25-29 32390 30965 27908 27563 27451 27447 27470 27483 30-34 31032 33176 28694 27291 27272 27361 27405 27416 35-39 29909 34504 28128 26932 27173 27315 27346 27348 40-44 24900 32796 28116 26701 27215 27256 27251 27247 45-49 22822 30879 28148 26792 27179 27093 27078 27088 50-54 21238 M216 30065 26966 26763 26734 26778 26823 55-59 20212 23348 31332 27236 26102 26206 26364 26440 60-64 17564 20360 31330 25988 25172 25576 25817 25897 65-69 12825 17609 28069 24916 24072 24790 24986 25057 70-74 11305 14905 24091 23323 22781 23478 23634 23734 75+ 14147 19631 38433 55373 52375 53002 54735 55769 TOTAL 390320 428645 461620 457128 451615 454289 456878 458309 FEMALES 0-4 26268 26463 26360 26225 26204 26216 26224 26225 5-9 26493 27317 26181 26120 26184 26211 26216 26213 10-14 28714 26849 25944 26107 26215 26225 26217 26212 15-19 30754 26894 25869 26261 26260 26227 26210 26207 20-24 32589 27180 26172 26395 26256 26202 26194 26199 25-29 31502 29631 26712 26293 26174 26162 26180 26190 30-34 30379 31850 27558 26101 26062 26139 26174 26182 35-39 29429 33514 27117 25828 26023 26149 26171 26168 40-44 24707 32006 27166 25705 26140 26166 26150 26140 45-49 22884 30430 27294 25938 26224 26123 26093 26096 50-54 21677 29019 29381 26359 26040 25977 26000 26033 55-59 21519 23959 31115 27015 25725 25769 25895 25954 60-64 20797 21709 32157 26331 25280 25593 25792 25847 65-69 16188 19919 29975 26004 24902 25504 25639 25673 70-74 15781 18695 27422 25522 24699 25247 25315 25362 7s+ 25V05 35269 57617 a0757 76404 76665 78928 80175 TOTAL 405585 440704 474041 47261 464794 466577 469396 470874 BIRTH RATE 13.2 11.8 11.5 11.7 11.8 11.7 11.6 DEATH RATE 8.7 9.3 11.8 12.3 11.6 11.5 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE 1.4 .3 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .59 .29 -.02 -.06 .02 .02 .01 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.773 1.935 2.064 2.064 2.063 2.062 2.062 e(0) - BOTH SEXES 77.23 80.55 83.26 84.65 85.41 85.97 86.20 IMR - BOTH SEXES 8.0 4.8 2.8 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.9 42 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS NONREPORTING NONMEMBER ECONOMIES Poputatfon Projectfon (thousands) AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 314169 328200 341073 354230 367424 379976 392064 403338 414129 424325 MALES 0-4 14724 15429 14397 13973 14213 14590 14674 14534 14382 14331 5-9 13567 14570 15303 14337 13922 14168 14550 14639 14505 14358 10-14 13231 13468 14489 15264 14305 13895 14144 14529 14623 14493 15-19 12834 13100 13361 14428 15208 14257 13854 14107 14496 14595 20-24 11807 12600 12913 13260 14334 15117 14180 13786 14046 14441 25-29 13452 11517 12367 12792 13155 14229 15015 14093 13710 13976 30-34 12750 13135 11297 12244 12687 13054 14128 14918 14012 13640 35-39 11186 12436 12882 11163 12126 12574 12947 14023 14821 13932 40-44 7609 10866 12152 12674 11015 11978 12433 12814 13894 14701 45-49 7788 7329 10536 11860 12414 10808 11772 12237 12631 13717 50-54 8697 7404 7010 10139 11470 12035 10506 11471 11952 12366 55-59 7101 8078 6925 6601 9607 10912 11496 10081 11051 11560 60-64 6153 6360 7293 6305 6065 8881 10156 10771 9513 10496 65-69 3013 5211 5443 6306 5524 5373 7940 9171 9822 8767 70-74 2076 2343 4094 4344 5118 4560 4509 6754 7915 8597 75+ 2995 2735 2811 4175 5242 6403 6764 6983 9012 11470 TOTAL 148983 156581 163272 169864 176405 182835 189068 194912 200384 205439 FEMALES 0-4 14359 14803 13800 13383 13601 13959 14036 13898 13748 13696 5-9 13123 14229 14700 13760 13349 13572 13934 14015 13882 13737 10-14 12840 13044 14168 14681 13744 13336 13561 13925 14009 13879 15-19 12250 12747 12975 14147 14662 13728 13323 13551 13917 14003 20-24 11619 12091 12629 12948 14121 14638 13708 13306 13535 13903 25-29 13288 11431 11953 12598 12920 14093 14611 13684 13285 13516 30-34 12681 13118 11313 11918 12566 12889 14062 14581 13659 13262 35-39 11327 12533 13005 11269 11879 12527 12853 14025 14546 13629 40-44 7842 11191 12419 12932 11215 11825 12475 12803 13975 14499 45-49 8507 7723 11062 12313 12837 11137 11749 12401 12734 13907 50-54 9856 8335 7595 10917 12174 12700 11025 11639 12293 12633 55-59 8792 9568 8135 7444 10731 11980 12510 10871 11490 12150 60-64 9338 8394 9215 7885 7253 10475 11716 12256 10670 11299 65-69 6085 8654 7894 8764 7565 6983 10118 11353 11914 10406 70-74 4775 5334 7786 7242 8166 7090 6584 9596 10829 11427 75+ 8505 8425 9150 12164 14235 16208 16732 16521 19259 22941 TOTAL 165186 171620 177801 184366 191019 197141 202996 208425 213745 218886 BIRTH RATE 19.4 17.3 16.0 15.7 15.5 15.1 14.4 13.9 13.5 DEATH RATE 9.6 8.9 8.4 8.3 8.8 8.8 8.8 8.6 8.6 RATE OF NAT. INC. .97 .84 .76 .73 .67 .63 .57 .53 .49 NET MIGRATION RATE -1.0 -.7 -.0 -.0 -.0 -.0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .87 .77 .76 .73 .67 .63 .57 .53 .49 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.557 2.371 2.252 2.199 2.154 2.105 2.077 2.069 2.066 NRR 1.217 1.124 1.070 1.049 1.032 1.011 1.000 .999 1.000 etO) - BOTH SEXES 70.55 72.28 73.89 75.41 76.26 77.14 78.08 79.06 80.09 e05) - BOTH SEXES 57.64 59.13 60.51 61.81 62.50 63.23 63.99 64.80 65.65 IMR - BOTH SEXES 23.6 20.3 17.0 14.1 12.2 10.3 8.4 6.6 4.7 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0286 .0246 .0207 .0173 .0151 .0128 .0107 .0085 .0063 DEP. RATIO 53.3 56.3 57.1 56.9 54.1 52.1 54.0 56.7 59.1 59.4 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS 43 Summary Projection for 25-Year Periods NONREPORTING NONMEMBER ECONOMIES AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL N+F 314169 354230 414129 452441 470459 478681 483705 486150 MALES 0-4 14724 13973 14382 14478 14478 14466 14462 14461 5-9 13567 14337 14505 14500 14463 14449 14449 14451 10-14 13231 15264 14623 14466 14436 14439 14447 14449 15-19 12834 14428 14496 14357 14400 14429 14441 14442 20-24 11807 13260 14046 14240 14373 14412 14419 14419 25-29 13452 12792 13710 14221 14362 14380 14379 14380 30-34 12750 12244 14012 14297 14344 14331 14331 14338 35-39 11186 11163 14821 14348 14257 14258 14281 14299 40-44 7609 12674 13894 14142 14080 14166 14223 14248 45-49 7788 11860 12631 13605 13883 14070 14145 14168 50-54 8697 10139 11952 13098 13715 13934 14002 14024 55-59 7101 6601 11051 13073 13532 13703 13766 13802 60-64 6153 6305 9513 13318 13195 13300 13414 13488 65-69 3013 6306 9822 11767 12439 12655 12896 13024 70-74 2076 4344 7915 9723 11133 11747 12143 12318 75. 2995 4175 9012 16671 22800 25819 27652 28547 TOTAL 148983 169864 200384 220304 229887 234558 237451 238858 FEMALES 0-4 14359 13383 13748 13820 13813 13798 13793 13792 5-9 13123 13760 13882 13850 13803 13786 13784 13785 10-14 12840 14681 14009 13828 13780 13778 13783 13785 15-19 12250 14147 13917 13742 13754 13777 13785 13785 20-24 11619 12948 13535 13669 13755 13783 13784 13782 25-29 13288 12598 13285 13705 13789 13788 13778 13775 30-34 12681 11918 13659 13828 13814 13776 13764 13766 35-39 11327 11269 14546 13932 13774 13740 13747 13756 40-44 7842 12932 13975 13808 136616 13698 13733 13746 45-49 8507 12313 12734 13387 13563 13676 13721 13730 50-54 9856 10917 12293 13070 13547 13671 13696 13697 55-59 8792 7444 11490 13329 13592 13638 13638 13643 60-64 9338 7885 10670 14027 13581 13517 13537 13569 65-69 6085 8764 11914 13242 13296 13290 13400 13470 70-74 4775 7242 10829 11723 12629 12992 13219 13319 75. 8505 12164 19259 29178 36416 39413 41090 41893 TOTAL 165186 184366 213745 232137 240572 244123 246254 247293 BIRTH RATE 17.5 14.9 13.0 12.2 11.9 11.8 11.7 DEATH RATE 9.0 8.6 9.5 10.7 11.2 11.3 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE -.6 -.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .80 .62 .35 .16 .07 .04 .02 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.389 2.120 2.064 2.060 2.058 2.057 2.057 e(O) BOTH SEXES 72.29 77.25 81.24 83.48 84.71 85.63 85.99 IMR - BOTH SEXES 20.4 10.3 4.0 2.8 2.4 2.1 2.0 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN REGION (and Northern America) 46 BANK REGION AND COUNTRY DEPARTMENTS LAnN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN Population Projectfon (thousands) AGE GRWUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 399445 440766 483233 524032 562470 600038 637907 674790 709350 741083 MALES 0-4 27401 28555 28951 28215 27203 27275 28052 28388 28157 27794 5-9 25104 26927 28171 28635 27966 27006 27122 27927 28292 28089 10-14 23657 24890 26748 28016 28504 27861 26927 27058 27876 28254 15-19 21630 23408 24678 26557 27849 28360 27745 26829 26974 27806 20-24 19511 21203 23051 24366 26285 27612 28162 27573 26683 26850 25-29 16310 18989 20775 22679 24050 26008 27379 27951 27392 26533 30-34 13730 15851 18599 20433 22382 23791 25783 27169 27764 27234 35-39 11048 13341 15511 18282 20151 22124 23561 25562 26964 27581 40-44 9035 10709 13021 15201 17980 19861 21845 23290 25296 26713 45-49 7642 8711 10383 12676 14850 17607 19487 21467 22918 24928 50-54 6451 7284 8340 9978 12226 14362 17074 18942 20914 22375 55-59 5494 6018 6822 7842 9421 11590 13668 16313 18168 20135 60-64 4348 4955 5449 6208 7174 8669 10728 12726 15281 17121 65-69 3229 3719 4262 4720 5421 6319 7698 9603 11483 13906 70-74 2393 2535 2941 3409 3828 4450 5250 6467 8157 9862 75. 2612 2799 3027 3470 4134 4859 5777 6976 8682 11099 TOTAL 199595 219893 240729 260686 279422 297753 316259 334241 351001 366280 FEMALES 0-4 26578 27517 27866 27125 26118 26163 26884 27179 26934 26561 5-9 24481 26161 27191 27603 26921 25961 26046 26792 27112 26891 10-14 23134 24296 26015 27069 27503 26845 25907 26004 26760 27092 15-19 21181 22942 24145 25885 26961 27417 26780 25855 25964 26730 20-24 19287 20875 22707 23947 25723 26832 27320 26701 25794 25918 25-29 16289 18934 20607 22479 23763 25575 26721 27224 26624 25737 30-34 13825 15989 18696 20403 22310 23623 25461 26618 27136 26554 35-39 11161 13577 15785 18510 20241 22165 23497 25342 26512 27043 40-44 9176 10958 13392 15608 18340 20079 22011 23350 25201 26383 45-49 7840 8988 10774 13200 15416 18138 19879 21811 23156 25014 50-54 6709 7632 8782 10557 12966 15164 17866 19604 21536 22891 55-59 5784 6459 7381 8523 10281 12652 14826 17500 19236 21169 60-64 4690 5454 6130 7045 8181 9899 12218 14360 17002 18743 65-69 3602 4257 5003 5679 6590 7693 9358 11609 13714 16321 70-74 2790 3054 3670 4390 5064 5932 6989 8576 10733 12790 75+ 3323 3781 4361 5325 6670 8147 9885 12021 14934 18966 TOTAL 199850 220873 242504 263347 283048 302284 321647 340549 358349 374804 BIRTH RATE 28.4 26.0 23.0 20.4 19.0 18.2 17.3 16.2 15.1 DEATH RATE 7.3 6.6 6.1 5.8 5.8 5.8 6.0 6.1 6.4 RATE OF NAT. INC. 2.12 1.94 1.69 1.46 1.32 1.24 1.13 1.00 .88 NET MIGRATION RATE -1.5 -.9 -.7 -.5 -.3 -.1 -.1 -.0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.97 1.84 1.62 1.42 1.29 1.22 1.12 1.00 .88 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.532 3.116 2.737 2.421 2.261 2.200 2.154 2.114 2.087 NRR 1.581 1.416 1.260 1.126 1.058 1.036 1.021 1.009 1.003 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 66.83 68.39 69.98 71.56 72.66 73.80 74.99 76.23 77.53 e(15) - BOTH SEXES 56.69 57.61 58.57 59.60 60.28 61.01 61.76 62.56 63.40 INR - BOTH SEXES 53.1 46.2 39.0 32.3 27.4 22.5 17.6 12.7 7.9 qC5) - BOTH SEXES .0653 .0562 .0472 .0391 .0333 .0275 .0217 .0160 .0102 DEP. RATIO 72.8 68.1 63.8 58.6 53.5 49.4 47.7 47.9 48.9 50.2 BANK REGION AND COUNTRY DEPARTMENTS 47 Su m ry Projection for 25-Year Periods LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 399445 524032 709350 838581 893748 915957 929020 935392 MALES 0-4 27401 28215 28157 28048 27944 27904 27902 27904 5-9 25104 28635 28292 27940 27867 27868 27882 27886 10-14 23657 28016 27876 27722 27814 27867 27885 27885 15-19 21630 26557 26974 27541 27814 27875 27876 27869 20-24 19511 24366 26683 27571 27838 27844 27823 27819 25-29 16310 22679 27392 27774 27801 27743 27731 27741 30-34 13730 204;3 27764 27821 27615 27598 27636 27665 35-39 11048 18282 26964 27278 27289 27454 27556 27594 40-44 9035 15201 25296 26234 26972 27339 27466 27496 45-49 7642 12676 22918 25746 26830 27223 27312 27330 50-54 6451 9978 20914 26031 26718 26933 26991 27034 55-59 5494 7842 18168 25698 26227 26321 26478 26596 60-64 4348 6208 15281 23939 24924 25368 25779 25995 65-69 3229 4720 11483 21005 22826 24108 24818 25107 70-74 2393 3409 8157 17084 20692 22501 23394 23724 75+ 2612 3470 8682 25496 42120 48574 52578 54588 TOTAL 199595 260686 351001 412929 439291 450521 457107 460235 FEMALES 0-4 26578 27125 26934 26757 26644 26604 26601 26603 5-9 24481 27603 27112 26677 26578 26577 26588 26592 10-14 23134 27069 26760 26489 26532 26579 26594 26593 15-19 21181 25885 25964 26356 26549 26600 26598 26590 20-24 19287 23947 25794 26463 26623 26614 26586 26579 25-29 16289 22479 26624 26779 26674 26585 26559 26563 30-34 13825 20403 27136 26934 26577 26510 26527 26547 35-39 11161 18510 26512 26524 26348 26434 26508 26535 40-44 9176 15608 25201 25654 26157 26410 26499 26514 45-49 7840 13200 23156 25370 26181 26426 26471 26467 50-54 6709 10557 21536 25989 26356 26383 26372 26383 55-59 5784 8523 19236 26182 26300 26144 26193 26263 60-64 4690 7045 17002 25149 25600 25714 25968 26119 65-69 3602 5679 13714 23274 24328 25227 25725 25927 70-74 2790 4390 10733 20438 23359 24757 25377 25594 75+ 3323 5325 14934 40617 63650 71873 76747 79291 TOTAL 199850 263347 358349 425652 454457 465436 471913 475158 BIRTH RATE 25.6 18.1 14.1 12.6 12.1 11.8 11.7 DEATH RATE 6.6 5.9 7.4 10.0 11.1 11.3 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE -1.0 -.2 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROUTH RATE 1.81 1.21 .67 .25 .10 .06 .03 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.096 2.224 2.076 2.064 2.061 2.058 2.058 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 68.49 73.99 79.14 82.25 83.95 85.24 85.75 IMR BOTH SEXES 46.2 22.4 6.1 3.3 2.6 2.2 2.1 4R RANK REGION AND COUNTRY DEPARTMENM LATN AMECA AD CABBEAN COUNTRY DEPT. I Population Projection (thousands) AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 172264 191770 211114 229150 245655 261477 277441 293068 307566 320546 MALES 0-4 11807 12589 12588 12044 11426 11443 11917 12183 12099 11868 5-9 10672 11654 12460 12484 11963 11360 11388 11870 12146 12070 10-14 9680 10622 11607 12416 12446 11929 11333 11364 11850 12128 15-19 9003 9619 10561 11549 12361 12394 11885 11294 11330 11819 20-24 8618 8914 9531 10476 11467 12278 12318 11817 11236 11277 25-29 7328 8518 8817 9439 10388 11376 12188 12235 11745 11173 30-34 6197 7238 8420 8727 9354 10301 11289 12103 12157 11678 35-39 5004 6107 7139 8318 8635 9263 10209 11196 12013 12076 40-44 3953 4906 5996 7024 8200 8520 9148 10092 11079 11898 45-49 3386 3840 4774 5849 6869 8031 8356 8984 9925 10911 50-54 2814 3235 3677 4586 5636 6636 7776 8109 8740 9678 55-59 2382 2621 3022 3448 4317 5327 6296 7406 7755 8391 60-64 1858 2138 2361 2735 3136 3950 4904 5831 6901 7270 65-69 1354 1576 1823 2027 2366 2736 3476 4352 5217 6226 70-74 989 1048 1228 1435 1619 1913 2238 2877 3643 4418 75+ 1007 1095 1187 1360 1640 1943 2340 2831 3618 4706 TOTAL 86053 95722 105190 113915 121823 129400 137059 144546 151454 157586 FEMALES 0-4 11585 12151 12132 11591 10980 10986 11431 11675 11583 11351 5-9 10562 11458 12049 12053 11530 10931 10946 11399 11652 11568 10-14 9615 10524 11426 12021 12030 11511 10916 10934 11389 11644 15-19 8918 9577 10493 11399 11997 12008 11492 10901 10921 11379 20-24 8552 8871 9540 10461 11370 11969 11982 11471 10882 10905 25-29 7313 8496 8830 9507 10432 11340 11940 11955 11447 10862 30-34 6214 7256 8448 8792 9474 10398 11306 11907 11925 11420 35-39 5009 6152 7203 8400 8750 9432 10355 11263 11866 11888 40-44 3965 4944 6091 7144 8342 8694 9375 10297 11206 11811 45-49 3420 3892 4871 6014 7068 8259 8613 9294 10216 11125 50-54 2871 3329 3805 4777 5916 6959 8141 8497 9179 10100 55-59 2458 2756 3217 3695 4659 5778 6809 7977 8339 9022 60-64 1953 2305 2609 3070 3552 4490 5585 6598 7750 8122 65-69 1460 1753 2102 2414 2876 3344 4248 5308 6299 7433 70-74 1103 1211 1494 1837 2156 2591 3037 3891 4902 5864 75+ 1211 1373 1616 2060 2701 3388 4208 5156 6557 8464 TOTAL 86211 96048 105924 115235 123832 132077 140382 148522 156112 162960 BIRTH RATE 29.1 26.0 22.6 19.7 18.3 17.8 17.1 16.0 14.9 DEATH RATE 7.7 6.8 6.2 5.7 5.8 6.0 6.1 6.4 6.6 RATE OF NAT. INC. 2.14 1.92 1.64 1.39 1.25 1.19 1.10 .97 .83 NET MIGRATION RATE .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.15 1.92 1.64 1.39 1.25 1.19 1.10 .97 .83 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.579 3.118 2.702 2.342 2.165 2.124 2.108 2.092 2.077 NRR 1.583 1.409 1.240 1.086 1.012 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 65.04 67.09 69.08 71.00 72.17 73.38 74.63 75.92 77.26 eC15) - BOTH SEXES 55.77 57.00 58.23 59.48 60.15 60.85 61.57 62.33 63.12 INR - BOTH SEXES 61.7 52.9 44.2 36.3 30.5 24.8 19.0 13.2 7.5 qt5) - BOTH SEXES .0749 .0632 .0524 .0431 .0364 .0297 .0230 .0163 .0095 DEP. RATIO 70.2 67.2 63.1 57.6 51.7 47.4 46.0 47.1 48.9 50.6 BANK REGION AND COUNTRY DEPARTMENIS 49 Summry Projection LATIN AERICA AND CARIBEAN COUNTRY DEPT. I AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 172264 229150 307566 359639 381620 390894 396569 399343 MALES 0-4 11807 12044 12099 12001 11932 11912 11913 11916 5-9 10672 12484 12146 11920 11885 11895 11906 11908 10-14 9680 12416 11850 11780 11859 11898 11909 11908 15-19 9003 11549 11330 11699 11874 11908 11906 11901 20-24 8618 10476 11236 11770 11908 11897 11881 11878 25-29 7328 9439 11745 11931 11892 11845 11838 11844 30-34 6197 8727 12157 11939 11777 11769 11795 11812 35-39 5004 8318 12013 11592 11592 11703 11764 11784 40-44 3953 7024 11079 11016 11452 11668 11731 11743 45-49 3386 5849 9925 10837 11447 11641 11667 11669 50-54 2814 4586 8740 11150 11467 11515 11520 11538 55-59 2382 3448 7755 11225 11240 11217 11286 11348 60-64 1858 2735 6901 10610 10568 10763 10981 11093 65-69 1354 2027 5217 9110 9549 10216 10581 10717 70-74 989 1435 3643 7263 8654 9570 9988 10124 75+ 1007 1360 3618 10346 17897 20568 22318 23214 TOTAL 86053 113915 151454 176190 186993 191983 194984 196397 FEMALES 0-4 11585 11591 11583 11452 11378 11358 11358 11360 5-9 10562 12053 11652 11387 11337 11344 11353 11356 10-14 9615 12021 11389 11266 11315 11349 11358 11357 15-19 8918 11399 10921 11208 11338 11365 11361 11355 20-24 8552 10461 10882 11315 11393 11373 11354 11349 25-29 7313 9507 11447 11525 11417 11353 11339 11342 30-34 6214 8792 11925 11583 11345 11309 11323 11336 35-39 5009 8400 11866 11298 11206 11273 11319 11333 40-44 3965 7144 11206 10803 11124 11279 11322 11325 45-49 3420 6014 10216 10716 11195 11310 11313 11303 50-54 2871 4777 9179 11186 11345 11294 11263 11264 55-59 2458 3695 8339 11517 11313 11162 11175 11211 60-64 1953 3070 7750 11265 10910 10940 11077 11154 65-69 1460 2414 6299 10357 10254 10733 10989 11079 70-74 1103 1837 4902 9016 9882 10594 10864 10941 75+ 1211 2060 6557 17556 27874 30876 32818 33881 TOTAL 86211 115235 156112 183449 194627 198911 201585 202946 BIRTH RATE 25.7 17.7 13.9 12.5 12.1 11.8 11.7 DEATH RATE 6.9 6.0 7.7 10.2 11.1 11.3 11.4 NET MIGRATION RATE .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.90 1.18 .63 .24 .10 .06 .03 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.096 2.161 2.0n 2.064 2.061 2.058 2.058 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 67.20 73.56 78.93 82.15 83.90 85.22 85.73 IMR - BOTH SEXES 53.1 24.6 5.9 3.3 2.6 2.2 2.1 50 BANK REGION AND COUNTRY DEPARTMENTS LATIN AMlltE CA AND CARIBBEAN COUNTRY DEPT. II Population Projection (thousands) AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 103578 114747 127311 139871 151838 163646 175680 187435 198539 208969 MALES 0-4 7791 8007 8375 8334 7999 7963 8148 8222 8135 8071 5-9 7141 7601 7871 8264 8248 7936 7921 8115 8198 8119 10-14 7101 7039 7529 7810 8214 8212 7913 7904 8102 8190 15-19 6083 6985 6957 7458 7752 8168 8179 7887 7882 8084 20-24 4988 5867 6832 6832 7357 7674 8113 8131 7847 7849 25-29 4037 4717 5680 6673 6709 7263 7610 8055 8081 7806 30-34 3246 3801 4555 5541 6559 6623 7202 7555 8004 8038 35-39 2471 3062 3671 4442 5444 6476 6562 7144 7502 7956 40-44 2120 2330 2955 3574 4355 5361 6399 6491 7075 7438 45-49 1729 2008 2240 2865 3486 4264 5266 6295 6395 6980 50-54 1438 1631 1915 2149 2763 3375 4143 5128 6143 6253 55-59 1165 1334 1526 1800 2032 2625 3222 3969 4930 5928 60-64 901 1049 1208 1389 1651 1876 2440 3013 3734 4665 65-69 633 770 903 1049 1219 1462 1676 2199 2738 3420 70-74 477 497 611 728 859 1010 1226 1422 1887 2376 75+ 551 564 603 722 891 1092 1329 1643 1998 2589 TOTAL 51872 57263 63431 69630 75538 81381 87350 93171 98647 103760 FEMALES 0-4 7494 7708 8054 8006 7675 7633 7802 7865 7773 7704 5-9 6883 7320 7588 7957 7933 7624 7601 7777 7848 7763 10-14 6867 6790 7257 7537 7918 7905 7608 7590 7769 7843 15-19 5902 6771 6726 7203 7495 7887 7887 7594 7579 7762 20-24 4927 5740 6664 6636 7135 7447 7860 7865 7578 7568 25-29 4040 4741 5618 6558 6557 7079 7416 7834 7845 7564 30-34 3293 3892 4641 5531 6490 6508 7048 7388 7810 7827 35-39 2539 3184 3815 4572 5473 6442 6475 7017 7361 7787 40-44 2203 2465 3125 3760 4523 5427 6400 6436 6980 7328 45-49 1821 2146 2416 3075 3711 4472 5375 6345 6386 69S 50-54 1522 1769 2095 2365 3019 3651 4407 5304 6269 6317 55-59 1241 1467 1712 2034 2304 2948 3572 4320 5209 6168 60-64 995 1174 1394 1635 1953 2219 2849 3464 4203 5082 65-69 719 909 1080 1294 1531 1839 2101 2712 3314 4042 70-74 563 616 789 950 1154 1379 1673 1929 2514 3101 75. 697 792 905 1129 1431 1805 2255 2823 3454 4421 TOTAL 51706 57484 63880 70242 76300 82265 88329 94263 99892 105210 BIRTH RATE 30.6 28.6 25.5 22.3 20.4 19.2 18.0 16.7 15.6 DEATH RATE 6.2 5.6 5.1 4.8 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.4 RATE OF NAT. INC. 2.45 2.30 2.04 1.75 1.56 1.-4 1.31 1.16 1.02 NET MIGRATION RATE -4.0 -2.2 -1.6 -1.0 -.6 -.2 -.1 -.1 .0 GROUTH RATE 2.05 2.08 1.88 1.64 1.50 1.42 1.30 1.15 1.02 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.882 3.398 2.948 2.560 2.363 2.271 2.188 2.111 2.076 NRR 1.756 1.554 1.360 1.196 1.114 1.076 1.042 1.011 1.000 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 67.93 69.33 70.80 72.31 73.37 74.47 75.63 76.84 78.10 e(5) - BOTH SEXES 57.41 58.17 59.04 60.02 60.71 61.44 62.20 63.00 63.84 IHR - BOTH SEXES 47.8 40.9 34.4 28.4 24.0 19.5 15.1 10.7 6.4 qC5) - BOTH SEXES .0590 .0502 .0418 .0344 .0293 .0239 .0187 .0134 .0083 DEP. RATIO 82.8 73.5 68.1 62.5 56.9 51.8 48.3 47.3 47.3 47.9 BANK REGION AND COUNTRY DEPARTMENIS 51 Sury Projection LATIN AMERICA AND CARIBBEAN COUNTRY DEPARTMENT II AGE GROUIP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 103578 139871 198539 241990 260258 266546 270133 271887 MALES 0-4 7791 8334 8135 8134 8116 8107 8106 8106 5-9 7141 8264 8198 8118 8101 8098 8100 8100 10-14 7101 7810 8102 8081 8089 8097 8100 8100 15-19 6083 7458 7882 8043 8084 8096 8096 8095 20-24 4988 6832 7847 8014 8080 8085 8082 8081 25-29 4037 6673 8081 8036 8065 8060 8057 8059 30-34 3246 5541 8004 8073 8027 8025 8031 8037 35-39 2471 4442 7502 7940 7959 7987 8007 8016 40-44 2120 3574 7075 7679 7881 7949 7978 7987 45-49 1729 2865 6395 7588 7805 7905 7933 7940 50-54 1438 2149 6143 7701 m9 7819 7844 7857 55-59 1165 1800 4930 7441 7624 7659 7704 7732 60-64 901 1389 3734 6705 7276 7411 7507 7559 65-69 633 1049 2738 5939 6714 7062 7226 7300 70-74 477 728 1887 4849 6148 6573 6808 6901 75+ 551 722 1998 7295 12457 14278 15383 15938 TOTAL 51872 69630 98647 119634 128166 131210 132962 133808 FEMALES 0-4 7494 8006 7773 7756 7737 7729 7728 7727 5-9 6883 7957 7848 7746 7725 7722 7724 7724 10-14 6867 7537 7769 7715 7715 7721 7724 7724 15-19 5902 7203 7579 7687 7714 7724 7725 7723 20-24 4927 6636 7578 7680 7724 7726 7722 7721 25-29 4040 6558 7845 m5 m3 7721 7716 7716 30-34 3293 5531 7810 7803 7718 7705 7708 7712 35-39 2539 4572 7361 7708 7675 7687 7701 7707 40-44 2203 3760 6980 7498 7630 7675 7695 7700 45-49 1821 3075 6386 7464 7600 7668 7685 7688 50-54 1522 2365 6269 7670 7616 7651 7660 7665 55-59 1241 2034 5209 7551 7624 7595 7615 7632 60-64 995 1635 4203 6999 7447 7494 7554 7590 65-69 719 1294 3314 6469 7120 7365 7479 7531 70-74 563 950 2514 5667 6887 7198 7370 7434 75+ 697 1129 3454 11210 18427 20955 22366 23083 TOTAL 51706 70242 99892 122356 132092 135336 137172 138079 BIRTH RATE 28.1 19.1 14.3 12.6 12.1 11.8 11.7 DEATH RATE 5.6 4.9 6.5 9.7 11.1 11.3 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE -2.5 -.4 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.00 1.40 .79 .29 .10 .05 .03 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.364 2.288 2.072 2.064 2.061 2.058 2.058 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 69.45 74.68 79.60 82.47 84.09 85.32 85.80 IMR - BOTH SEXES 41.0 19.6 5.2 3.1 2.5 2.2 2.0 52 BANK REGION AND COUNTRY DEPARTMEN1S LATIN AMERICA AND CARIBBEAN COUNTRY DEPf. m Population Projection (thousands) AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 53975 59214 64550 69653 74715 79875 84982 89855 94478 98842 MALES 0-4 3852 3834 3894 3800 3794 3862 3888 3849 3820 3807 5-9 3558 3759 3750 3819 3739 3744 3821 3855 3824 3803 10-14 3257 3515 3719 3713 3787 3714 3724 3804 3842 3815 15-19 3153 3209 3470 3676 3676 3756 3688 3702 3786 3828 20-24 2738 3068 3131 3398 3613 3625 3711 3651 3672 3763 25-29 2214 2632 2970 3044 3322 3550 3572 3666 3614 3644 30-34 1785 2122 2545 2889 2974 3264 3499 3528 3629 3586 35-39 1421 1710 2050 2476 2826 2921 3215 3455 3491 3597 40-44 1108 1360 1649 1990 2416 2769 2869 3164; 3409 3450 45-49 908 1056 1305 1591 1930 2353 2705 2808 3106 3351 50-54 761 858 1003 1245 1525 1857 2273 2620 2726 3024 55-59 650 706 799 936 1167 1437 1760 2163 2504 2615 60-64 526 583 635 721 849 1066 1323 1631 2018 2350 65-69 396 447 498 545 623 741 939 1176 1464 1827 70-74 290 308 350 394 436 505 608 781 991 1250 75+ 305 329 355 404 468 540 637 778 1001 1308 TOTAL 26921 29497 32123 34642 37147 39704 42232 44633 46897 49018 FEMALES 0-4 3703 3698 3753 3659 3649 3711 3733 3693 3663 3648 5-9 3440 3618 3622 3685 3604 3605 3676 3706 3672 3650 10-14 3164 3401 3581 3589 3657 3582 3587 3662 3695 3666 15-19 3085 3122 3362 3544 3557 3630 3560 3570 3648 3686 20-24 2719 3016 3059 3303 3493 3516 3596 3533 3550 3635 25-29 2253 2640 2942 2990 3244 3446 3478 3565 3510 3534 30-34 1854 2187 2578 2883 2939 3202 3410 3448 3540 3492 35-39 1475 1802 2138 2529 2838 2900 3168 3380 3423 3519 40-44 1147 1435 1763 2097 2488 2800 2866 3136 3351 3397 45-49 959 1116 1402 1726 2058 2448 2760 2829 3100 3316 50-54 824 927 1082 1364 1683 2013 2399 2710 2782 3054 55-59 701 788 890 1041 1316 1629 1955 2337 2647 2722 60-64 573 655 740 839 985 1252 1558 1878 2254 2563 65-69 440 514 592 673 768 909 1165 1461 1773 2144 70-74 332 367 433 505 581 671 805 1045 1326 1629 75. 386 432 491 585 708 855 1032 1270 1646 2169 TOTAL 27054 29717 32427 35011 37568 40170 42750 45221 47581 49824 BIRTH RATE 28.6 26.4 23.6 21.7 20.5 19.2 17.8 16.6 15.7 DEATH RATE 7.5 7.0 6.6 6.5 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.4 6.7 RATE OF NAT. INC. 2.12 1.94 1.70 1.52 1.41 1.29 1.15 1.02 .90 NET MIGRATION RATE -2.6 -2.2 -1.7 -1.2 -.8 -.5 -.3 -.1 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.85 1.73 1.52 1.40 1.34 1.24 1.12 1.00 .90 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.431 3.071 2.728 2.519 2.414 2.325 2.237 2.183 2.142 NRR 1.497 1.356 1.221 1.140 1.101 1.070 1.039 1.023 1.013 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 65.52 66.65 67.80 68.96 70.12 71.34 72.62 73.96 75.37 e(15) - BOTH SEXES 55.79 56.43 57.01 57.59 58.34 59.14 59.98 60.87 61.80 IMR - BOTH SEXES 58.1 54.0 48.1 41.4 35.9 30.5 25.2 20.0 14.8 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0748 .0694 .0616 .0527 .0459 .0392 .0326 .0262 .0196 DEP. RATIO 74.9 69.2 63.4 57.3 52.8 49.5 48.1 47.8 48.2 49.5 BANK REGION AND COUNTRY DEPARTMEN1S 53 Suimary Projection LATIN AMERICA AND CARIBBEAN COUNTRY DEPARTMENT III AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 53975 69653 94478 112289 120503 124340 126572 127642 MALES 0-4 3852 3800 3820 3824 3821 3816 3815 3815 5-9 3558 3819 3824 3821 3816 3812 3812 3812 10-14 3257 3713 3842 3805 3809 3810 3812 3812 15-19 3153 3676 3786 377 3801 3808 3810 3810 20-24 2738 3398 3672 3763 3792 3802 3803 3803 25-29 2214 3044 3614 3749 3786 3791 3792 3793 30-34 1785 2889 3629 3743 3772 3m 3779 3782 35-39 1421 2476 3491 3739 3741 3757 3766 3771 40-44 1108 1990 3409 3658 3693 3733 3750 3757 45-49 908 1591 3106 3513 3655 3704 3727 3734 50-54 761 1245 2726 3401 3596 3662 3685 3695 55-59 650 936 2504 3319 3513 3587 3619 3634 60-64 526 721 2018 3057 3391 3464 3521 3549 65-69 396 545 1464 2782 3143 3280 3378 3422 70-74 290 394 991 2267 2767 3034 3168 3229 75+ 305 404 1001 3270 5279 6388 7072 7397 TOTAL 26921 34642 46897 55488 59373 61224 62311 62815 FEMALES 0-4 3703 3659 3663 3652 3646 3641 3640 3640 5-9 3440 3685 3672 3654 3642 3638 3638 3638 10-14 3164 3589 3695 3643 3637 3637 3638 3638 15-19 3085 3544 3648 3623 3632 3637 3638 3638 20-24 2719 3303 3550 3622 3630 3637 3637 3637 25-29 2253 2990 3510 3622 3638 3636 3635 3635 30-34 1854 2883 3540 3629 3637 3631 3631 3632 35-39 1475 2529 3423 3639 3620 3621 3626 3629 40-44 1147 2097 3351 3576 3590 3610 3621 3625 45-49 959 1726 3100 3459 3576 3599 3615 3619 50-54 824 1364 2782 3389 3554 3592 3604 3608 55-59 701 1041 2647 3372 3527 3568 3582 3591 60-64 573 839 2254 3198 3486 3518 3550 3568 65-69 440 673 1m 3032 3353 3441 3505 3536 70-74 332 505 1326 2659 3125 3347 3439 3485 75+ 386 585 1646 5033 7836 9361 10262 10708 TOTAL 27054 35011 47581 56801 61130 63116 64261 64828 BIRTH RATE 26.1 19.0 14.5 12.8 12.2 11.9 11.8 DEATH RATE 7.0 6.4 7.7 10.0 11.0 11.2 11.4 NET MIGRATION RATE -2.1 -.6 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.70 1.22 .69 .28 .13 .07 .03 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.049 2.330 2.102 2.067 2.062 2.058 2.057 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 66.72 71.55 77.39 81.30 83.34 84.94 85.55 INR - BOTH SEXES 53.5 30.7 10.6 4.1 3.0 2.3 2.1 54 BANK REGION AND COUNTRY DEPARTMENTS LATN AMECA AD CARBEAN COUNTRY DEPT. IV Population Projection (thousands) AGE GROUP 1985 1990 ,v95 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 58358 63157 67824 72337 76723 81051 85397 89620 93578 97207 MALES 0-4 3490 3596 3561 3512 3490 3537 3628 3648 3608 3553 5-9 3289 3456 3568 3539 3494 3475 3525 3618 3640 3602 10-14 2982 3272 3442 3557 3529 3486 3468 3519 3613 3637 15-19 2717 2962 3254 3427 3543 3517 3475 3459 3511 3606 20-24 2542 2686 2934 3230 3404 3522 3498 3458 3444 3497 25-29 2322 2506 2655 2907 3205 3380 3499 .$477 3439 3426 30-34 2101 2288 2476 2630 2884 3182 3358 3477 3457 3421 35-39 1783 2068 2258 2449 2605 2860 3157 3334 3455 3437 40-44 1525 1749 2034 2225 2418 2575 2829 3126 3304 3427 45-49 1330 1486 1708 1991 2183 2375 2532 2786 3083 3262 50-54 1209 1279 1432 1651 1929 2119 2310 2468 2721 3017 55-59 1087 1138 1206 1355 1568 1838 2027 2217 2377 2630 60-64 892 988 1038 1106 1250 1454 1714 1901 2091 2254 65-69 687 771 858 908 976 1112 1305 1550 1734 1923 70-74 510 547 618 695 746 811 937 1113 1338 1515 75+ 576 622 674 763 883 1003 1133 1321 1592 1956 TOTAL 29043 31413 33717 35945 38108 40246 42393 44473 46407 48165 FEMALES 0-4 3364 3457 3421 3371 3347 3388 3471 3487 3445 3389 5-9 3179 3338 3436 3405 3359 3336 3379 3464 3481 3441 10-14 2886 3166 3328 3428 3399 3353 3332 3376 3462 3480 15-19 2639 2872 3155 3319 3421 3393 3348 3328 3373 3459 20-24 2481 2618 2855 3142 3309 3412 3385 3342 3322 3368 25-29 2274 2456 2600 2841 3130 3297 3402 3376 3335 3316 30-34 2062 2252 2438 2585 2828 3117 3286 3392 3367 3327 35-39 1761 2041 2233 2422 2571 2814 3104 3274 3380 3358 40-44 1530 1741 2021 2215 2404 2554 2797 3087 3258 3366 45-49 1357 1507 1718 1997 2191 2380 2530 2774 3064 3236 50-54 1265 1328 1478 1687 1964 2157 2347 2497 2742 3032 55-59 1174 1226 1290 1439 1646 1919 2112 2302 2454 2699 60-64 1003 1118 1172 1237 1385 1589 1858 2051 2242 2397 65-69 825 926 1038 1094 1162 1308 1509 1772 1967 2161 70-74 663 718 814 923 985 1054 1198 1394 1651 1849 75+ 853 980 1111 1287 1515 1733 1947 2233 2630 3164 TOTAL 29315 31744 34107 36392 38615 40805 43004 45148 47171 49042 BIRTH RATE 24.2 22.1 20.2 18.8 17.9 17.4 16.5 15.6 14.7 DEATH RATE 7.9 7.5 7.2 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 7.0 RATE OF MAT. INC. 1.63 1.46 1.30 1.19 1.10 1.05 .97 .87 .76 NET NIGRATION RATE -.5 -.3 -.1 -.1 -.1 -.0 -.0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.58 1.43 1.29 1.18 1.10 1.04 .97 .86 .76 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.176 2.869 2.596 2.376 2.253 2.209 2.171 2.131 2.088 NRR 1.475 1.340 1.219 1.121 1.066 1.052 1.039 1.023 1.007 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 69.87 70.85 71.99 73.21 74.19 75.22 76.31 77.45 78.66 et15) - BOTH SEXES 58.10 58.67 59.39 60.25 60.97 61.74 62.55 63.41 64.32 INR - BOTH SEXES 34.4 30.4 25.8 21.3 17.9 14.8 11.8 8.8 5.7 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0417 .0365 .0309 .0255 .0216 .0181 .0146 .0110 .0074 DEP. RATIO 66.5 64.9 61.7 57.8 53.9 51.6 51.0 51.6 52.4 53.0 BANK REGION AND COUNTRY DEPARTMENIS SS swmmry Projection LATIN AMERICA AND CARIBBEAN COUNTRY DEPARTMENT IV AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 58358 72337 93578 108637 115357 118066 119536 120255 MALES 0-4 3490 3512 3608 3604 3591 3584 3583 3583 5-9 3289 3539 3640 3601 3582 3579 3580 3580 10-14 2982 3557 3613 3576 3572 3577 3580 3580 15-19 2717 3427 3511 3538 3567 3578 3579 3579 20-24 2542 3230 3444 3530 3571 3576 3573 3572 25-29 2322 2907 3439 3567 3575 3566 3562 3562 30-34 2101 2630 3457 3587 3562 3549 3549 3552 35-39 1783 2449 3455 3545 3523 3528 3538 3543 40-44 1525 2225 3304 3424 3469 3509 3527 3531 45-49 1330 1991 3083 3334 3441 3495 3510 3511 50-54 1209 1651 2721 3284 3439 3468 3472 3474 55-59 1087 1355 2377 3223 3394 3402 3409 3418 60-64 892 1106 2091 3103 3258 3286 3318 3341 65-69 687 908 1734 2794 3008 3116 3194 3229 70-74 510 695 1338 2367 2722 2908 3015 3056 75+ 576 763 1592 3588 5559 6416 6854 7072 TOTAL 29043 35945 46407 53664 56833 58136 58843 59185 FEMALES 0-4 3364 3371 3445 3436 3423 3417 3416 3416 5-9 3179 3405 3481 3435 3415 3412 3413 3414 10-14 2886 3428 3462 3411 3406 3411 3414 3414 15-19 2639 3319 3373 3378 3404 3414 3415 3414 20-24 2481 3142 3322 3379 3413 3417 3414 3413 25-29 2274 2841 3335 3429 3426 3416 3411 3411 30-34 2062 2585 3367 3462 3423 3407 3406 3408 35-39 1761 2422 3380 3436 3395 3394 3402 3407 40-44 1530 2215 3258 3338 3355 3387 3401 3404 45-49 1357 1997 3064 3275 3345 3389 3399 3399 50-54 1265 1687 2742 3264 3379 3391 3390 3389 55-59 1174 1439 2454 3260 3386 3370 3368 3373 9-64 1003 1237 2242 3221 3325 3317 3337 3354 65-69 825 1094 1967 3030 3178 3242 3303 3330 70-74 663 923 1651 2736 3033 3174 3260 3290 75+ 853 1287 2630 5482 8218 9371 9943 10233 TOTAL 29315 36392 47171 54973 58525 59929 60693 61070 BIRTH RATE 22,1 17.2 13.8 12.5 12.0 11.8 11.7 DEATH RATE 7.5 6.9 7.9 10.1 11.1 11.3 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE -.3 -.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.43 1.03 .60 .24 .09 .05 .02 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.863 2.224 2.073 2.063 2.060 2.058 2.057 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 70.95 75.39 80.05 82.75 84.26 85.40 85.85 INR - BOTH SEXES 30.2 14.9 4.7 3.0 2.5 2.1 2.0 56 BANK REGION AND COUNMRY DEPARTMENTS LATIN AMERICA AND CARIBBEAN NON-BORROWERS Poputation Projection (thousands) AGE GROUIP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL H+F 280594 293634 307901 321067 332923 343659 353806 363543 37nO48 378584 MALES 0-4 10916 11475 12002 11634 11422 11512 11796 12051 12112 12035 5-9 10243 11022 11586 12104 11712 11472 11535 11806 12043 12087 10-14 10601 10328 11114 11672 12171 11759 11500 11553 11811 12035 15-19 11419 10676 10411 11190 11730 12208 11778 11510 11551 11796 20-24 12737 11572 10839 10561 11304 11801 12241 11793 11500 11515 25-29 12728 12941 11789 11038 10717 11403 11848 12258 11775 11448 30-34 11769 12891 13112 11949 11163 10798 11439 11858 12237 11726 35-39 10286 11862 12988 13199 12017 11203 10808 11430 11825 12181 40-44 8143 10300 11873 12989 13187 11993 11165 10763 11367 11746 45-49 6726 8078 10215 11776 12881 13070 11884 11064 10664 11259 50-54 6227 6572 7908 10012 11555 12642 12833 11677 10877 10489 55-59 6262 5962 6321 7633 9693 11201 12273 12478 11371 10609 60-64 5890 5827 5591 5967 7249 9233 10704 11766 12002 10971 65-69 4877 5249 5254 5095 5492 6709 8594 10019 11075 11361 70-74 3711 4047 4436 4517 4452 4845 5974 ms 9090 10142 75+ 4684 5008 5666 6509 7202 7609 8232 9669 12202 15142 TOTAL 137217 143811 151105 157846 163945 169457 174604 179422 183503 186542 FEMALES 0-4 10401 10922 11421 11068 10866 10950 11218 11459 11515 11441 5-9 9761 10518 11043 11533 11156 10924 10981 11235 11458 11496 10-14 10075 9852 10615 11134 11604 11207 10955 11002 11242 11451 15-19 10947 10174 9960 10719 11215 11661 11242 10979 11009 11235 20-24 12491 11137 10379 10158 10875 11326 11730 11289 10996 10997 25-29 12622 12710 11377 10612 10343 11006 11406 11783 11307 10978 30-34 11815 12778 12881 11545 10744 10436 11061 11440 11789 11286 35-39 10484 11900 12871 12972 11617 10793 10461 11072 11432 11764 40-44 8404 10500 11918 12888 12979 11616 10783 10447 11048 11399 45-49 7011 8369 10457 11871 12836 12924 11566 1078 10402 11000 50-54 6609 6935 8285 10358 11766 12726 12817 11476 10658 10329 55-59 6871 6482 6814 8154 10209 11607 12564 12665 11349 10550 60-64 6718 6661 6303 6646 7974 10001 11388 12349 12468 11191 65-69 5878 6386 6365 6055 6415 mo 9710 11090 12061 12212 70-74 4938 5381 5903 5940 5700 6070 7342 9285 10659 11652 75+ 8352 9118 10204 11568 12679 13237 13976 15813 19151 23062 TOTAL 143376 149823 156796 163221 168978 174201 179202 184120 188545 192042 BIRTH RATE 15.7 15.7 14.5 13.7 13.4 13.3 13.2 12.9 12.6 DEATH RATE 8.7 8.3 8.0 7.9 8.1 8.1 8.2 8.5 9.1 RATE OF MAT. INC. .70 .74 .65 .58 .53 .51 .50 .44 .35 NET MIGRATION RATE 2.1 2.1 1.9 1.5 1.0 .7 .5 .2 .0 GROWTH RATE .91 .95 .84 .73 .63 .58 .54 .46 .35 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.900 2.016 2.030 2.048 2.064 2.076 2.087 2.097 2.104 NRR .901 .959 .968 .978 .986 .993 1.000 1.007 1.013 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 75.46 76.51 77.57 78.57 79.20 79.85 80.53 81.24 81.97 (15) - BOTH SEXES 61.68 62.62 63.56 64.46 65.02 65.60 66.20 66.82 67.46 ItR - BOTH SEXES 12.6 11.3 10.2 9.2 8.6 7.8 7.1 6.3 5.4 q(S) - BOTH SEXES .0169 .0152 .0139 .0128 .0121 .0111 .0101 .0091 .0080 DEP. RATIO 50.7 51.1 52.2 51.3 49.9 49.6 52.5 57.5 63.4 68.7 BANK REOION AND COUNTRY DEPARTMENTS 57 Summary Projection LAIN AMIUCA AN CAIBEAN NON-BORROWERS AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 280594 321067 372048 386476 392752 397535 400558 402180 MALES 0-4 10916 11634 12112 11994 11970 11970 11972 11973 5-9 10243 12104 12043 11951 11947 11960 11965 11965 10-14 10601 11672 11811 l1898 11945 11962 11966 11964 15-19 11419 11190 11551 11900 1195S 11961 11959 11957 20-24 12737 10561 11500 11963 11948 l1938 11936 11936 25-29 12728 11038 l1m 11988 1190s 11893 11900 11906 30-34 11769 11949 12237 11897 11835 11845 11867 11876 35-39 10286 13199 11825 11622 11744 11809 11838 11847 40-44 8143 12989 11367 11310 11697 11778 1179 11804 45-49 6726 11776 10664 11195 11699 11717 11728 11735 50-54 6227 10012 10877 11345 11615 11581 11596 11615 55-59 6262 7633 11371 115?6 11344 11351 11402 11442 60-64 5890 5967 12002 10876 10816 11021 11143 11200 65-69 4877 5095 11075 10014 10134 10608 10771 10833 70-74 3711 4517 9090 8757 944l 10038 10184 10257 75+ 4684 6509 12202 19941 21557 22556 23427 23957 TOTAL 137217 157846 183503 190226 193553 195987 197452 198265 FEMALES 0-4 10401 11068 11515 11401 11375 11372 11373 11374 5-9 9761 11533 11458 11365 11358 11366 11369 11369 10-14 10075 11134 11242 11317 11358 11370 11371 11369 15-19 10947 10719 11009 11325 11375 11375 11370 11367 20-24 12491 10158 10996 11404 11386 11371 11363 11363 25-29 12622 10612 11307 11461 11374 11355 11355 11358 30-34 11815 11545 11789 11404 11334 11335 11348 11354 35-39 10484 12972 11432 11173 11273 11326 11345 11348 40-44 8404 12888 11048 10919 11263 11330 11339 11338 45-49 7011 11871 10402 10876 11318 11322 11320 11318 50-54 6609 10358 10658 11134 11334 11279 11279 11288 55-59 6871 8154 11349 11532 11217 11192 11222 11248 60-64 6718 6646 12468 11072 10906 11065 11159 11197 65-69 5878 6055 12061 10544 10536 10956 11083 11121 70-74 4938 5940 10659 9685 10301 10846 10945 10986 75+ 8352 11568 19151 29638 31489 32690 33865 34516 TOTAL 143376 163221 188545 196250 199199 201548 203105 203915 BIRTH RATE 15.3 13.3 12.3 12.0 11.9 11.7 11.7 DEATH RATE 8.3 8.2 10.8 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE 2.0 .8 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .90 .59 .15 .06 .05 .03 .02 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.989 2.074 2.090 2.065 2.063 2.061 2.061 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 76.54 79.92 82.73 84.23 85.10 85.79 86.09 IMR - BOTH SEXES 11.4 7.8 4.6 3.2 2.5 2.0 2.0 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 60 COUNTIRES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRrIORIES ANTIGUA AND BARUDA Projection (thousards) with NRR=1 by 2030 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 76 79 8K 90 97 104 109 114 119 124 MALES 0-4 6 3 3 4 5 5 4 4 4 4 5-9 6 6 3 3 4 5 5 4 4 4 10-14 6 6 6 3 3 4 5 5 4 4 15-19 4 5 6 6 3 3 4 5 5 4 20-24 3 4 5 6 6 3 3 4 5 5 25-29 2 3 4 5 6 6 3 3 4 5 30-34 1 2 3 4 5 6 5 3 3 4 35-39 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 5 3 3 40-44 1 1 1 2 3 4 5 5 5 3 45-49 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 5 5 5 50-54 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 5 5 55-59 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 5 60-64 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 65-69 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 70-74 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 75+ 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 TOTAL 36 38 40 44 47 50 53 56 58 61 FEMALES 0-4 6 3 3 4 5 5 4 4 4 4 5-9 6 6 3 3 4 5 5 4 4 4 10-14 5 6 6 3 3 4 5 4 4 4 15-19 4 5 6 6 3 3 4 5 4 4 20-24 3 4 5 6 6 3 3 4 5 4 25-29 2 3 4 5 6 5 3 3 4 5 30-34 2 2 3 4 5 6 5 3 3 4 35-39 2 2 2 3 4 5 6 5 3 3 40-44 2 2 2 2 3 4 5 6 5 3 45-49 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 5 6 5 50-54 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 5 5 55-59 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 5 60-64 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 65-69 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 70-74 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 75+ 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 TOTAL 40 41 44 47 50 53 56 58 61 63 BIRTH RATE 14.8 17.0 19.5 20.3 18.6 15.7 13.9 13.6 13.9 DEATH RATE 5.0 5.2 5.3 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.6 RATE OF NAT. INC. .98 1.18 1.41 1.49 1.31 1.02 .84 .80 .83 NET MIGRATION RATE .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .98 1.17 1.41 1.49 1.30 1.02 .84 .80 .83 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.900 1.900 1.900 1.927 1.953 1.979 2.005 2.033 2.056 NRR .896 .901 .905 .921 .936 .951 .966 .980 .995 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 73.08 74.20 75.36 76.48 77.30 78.16 79.04 79.95 80.90 e(15) - BOTH SEXES 60.28 61.04 61.89 62.78 63.44 64.13 64.85 65.59 66.36 IMR - BOTH SEXES 21.6 17.6 14.4 11.8 10.2 8.6 7.0 5.3 3.7 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0264 .0215 .0175 .0146 .0127 .0108 .0089 .0071 .0052 DEP. RATIO 96.7 70.5 53.8 44.3 50.0 52.0 49.0 43.5 40.5 43.1 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 61 Summry Projection for 25-Year Periods ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 76 90 119 138 140 141 142 143 MALES 0-4 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5-9 6 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 10-14 6 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 15-19 4 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 20-24 3 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 25-29 2 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 30-34 1 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 35-39 1 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 40-44 1 2 5 5 4 4 4 4 45-49 1 1 5 5 4 4 4 4 50-54 1 1 5 4 4 4 4 4 55-59 1 1 4 3 4 4 4 4 60-64 1 1 3 3 4 4 4 4 65-69 1 1 1 5 4 4 4 4 70-74 0 1 1 4 4 4 4 4 75. 0 1 2 6 7 8 8 8 TOTAL 36 44 58 68 69 69 T0 70 FEMALES 0-4 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5-9 6 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 10-14 5 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 15-19 4 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 20-24 3 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 25-29 2 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 30-34 2 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 35-39 2 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 40-44 2 2 5 4 4 4 4 4 45-49 2 2 6 5 4 4 4 4 50-54 2 2 5 4 4 4 4 4 55-59 1 2 4 3 4 4 4 4 60-64 1 2 3 3 4 4 4 4 65-69 1 1 2 5 4 4 4 4 70-74 1 1 1 5 4 4 4 4 75+ 1 2 3 9 10 11 12 12 TOTAL 40 47 61 70 71 72 72 73 BIRTH RATE 17.2 16.2 13.0 12.1 11.9 11.7 11.7 DEATH RATE 5.2 5.5 7.1 11.5 11.5 11.4 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.19 1.09 .60 .05 .04 .04 .02 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.911 1.975 2.062 2.061 2.059 2.058 2.057 etO) - BOTH SEXES 74.26 78.28 81.90 83.79 84.84 85.61 85.92 IMR - BOTH SEXES 17.4 8.8 3.3 2.6 2.2 2.0 2.0 62 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES ARGENTIA Projection (thousands) with NRR=1 by 2005 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL 1+F 30331 32293 34096 35820 37464 39095 40728 42296 43765 45129 MALES 0-4 1649 1631 1587 1571 1550 1577 1611 1609 1592 1580 5-9 1639 1636 1621 1579 1564 1544 1572 1607 1605 1589 10-14 1410 1633 1631 1617 1576 1561 1542 1570 1605 1604 15-19 1242 1404 1626 1626 1612 1571 1557 1538 1567 1602 20-24 1177 1233 1395 1617 1617 1604 1564 1551 1532 1561 25-29 1144 1167 1224 1385 1608 1608 1595 1556 1543 1525 30-34 1094 1134 1158 1215 1377 1598 1599 1587 1548 1535 35-39 988 1082 1122 1148 1206 1367 1588 1589 1578 1540 40-44 859 973 1067 1109 1135 1194 1354 1574 1576 1566 45-49 775 840 952 1047 1090 1117 1176 1335 1553 1557 50-54 729 747 812 923 1017 1061 1089 1148 1306 1522 55-59 674 688 707 771 880 973 1018 1048 1109 1265 60-64 565 615 630 651 714 820 911 959 993 1056 65-69 435 490 536 554 578 639 740 829 879 918 70-74 327 347 394 436 457 483 541 634 720 773 75+ 364 401 434 491 561 626 692 786 930 1101 TOTAL 15069 16020 16896 17738 18542 19343 20148 20919 21635 22295 FEMALES 0-4 1592 1568 1525 1508 1486 1510 1541 1537 1520 1507 5-9 1585 1583 1562 1520 1504 1483 1507 1539 1535 1518 10-14 1366 1581 1580 1560 1518 1502 1481 1506 1538 1535 15-19 1205 1363 1578 1578 1557 1516 1500 1480 1505 1537 20-24 1145 1202 1360 1575 1575 1555 1514 1498 1478 1503 25-29 1113 1142 1199 1356 1571 1571 1551 1511 1496 1476 30-34 1068 1109 1138 1195 1352 1567 1567 1548 1508 1493 35-39 963 1063 1104 1133 1190 1347 1562 1562 1544 1504 40-44 851 955 1055 1097 1126 1184 1341 1554 1556 1538 45-49 783 841 944 1044 1086 1116 1174 1331 1544 1547 50-54 754 768 826 929 1029 1072 1102 1161 1317 1530 55-59 720 732 748 805 908 1008 1051 1083 1143 1299 60-64 631 688 702 719 778 880 979 1024 1058 1119 65-69 523 585 641 658 679 738 839 938 986 1024 70-74 426 459 518 573 596 620 680 780 879 932 75+ 536 632 720 832 967 1084 1190 1326 1526 1775 TOTAL 15262 16272 17199 18082 18923 19752 20579 21377 22130 22835 BIRTH RATE 21.2 19.3 18.1 16.9 16.4 16.0 15.3 14.6 14.0 DEATH RATE 8.6 8.5 8.2 7.9 7.9 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.8 RATE OF NAT. INC. 1.25 1.09 .99 .90 .85 .82 .76 .68 .61 NET MIGRATION RATE .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROUTH RATE 1.25 1.09 .99 .90 .85 .82 .76 .68 .61 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.960 2.675 2.418 2.186 2.099 2.092 2.085 2.078 2.070 NRR 1.378 1.255 1.142 1.038 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 70.58 71.67 72.88 74.15 75.12 76.12 77.17 78.26 79.39 eC15) - BOTH SEXES 58.82 59.40 60.18 61.08 61.78 62.52 63.29 64.10 64.95 IMR - BOTH SEXES 32.0 27.2 22.5 18.4 15.7 12.9 10.1 7.3 4.5 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0390 .0326 .0270 .0222 .0190 .0158 .0126 .0093 .0061 DEP. RATIO 64.1 63.5 59.7 56.3 53.4 52.0 52.0 53.0 53.8 54.2 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRrrORIES 63 Summary Projection for 25-Year Periods ' ARGENTINA AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 30331 35820 43765 49419 51614 52574 53148 53434 MALES 0-4 1649 1571 1592 1596 1593 1591 1590 1590 5-9 1639 1579 1605 1596 1590 1589 1589 1589 10-14 1410 1617 1605 1589 1587 1588 1589 1589 15-19 1242 1626 1567 1578 1585 1588 1588 1588 20-24 1177 1617 1532 1571 1584 1586 1586 1586 25-29 1144 1385 1543 1575 1584 1582 1581 1581 30-34 1094 1215 1548 1584 1579 1576 1576 1577 35-39 988 1148 1578 1576 1567 1568 1571 1573 40-44 859 1109 1576 1530 1548 1559 1565 1567 45-49 775 1047 1553 1486 1533 1551 1557 1559 50-54 729 923 1306 1477 1521 1537 1541 1543 55-59 674 771 1109 1449 1501 1510 1515 1518 60-64 565 651 993 1425 1454 1464 1476 1485 65-69 435 554 879 1346 1351 1395 1421 1435 70-74 327 436 720 1210 1224 1301 1341 1358 75+ 364 491 930 1766 2584 2883 3064 3155 TOTAL 15069 17738 21635 24355 25384 25868 26152 26292 FEMALES 0-4 1592 1508 1520 1522 1518 1517 1516 1516 5-9 1585 1520 1535 1522 1516 1515 1515 1515 10-14 1366 1560 1538 1516 1513 1514 1515 1515 15-19 1205 1578 1505 1506 1512 1515 1515 1515 20-24 1145 1575 1478 1503 1514 1516 1515 1515 25-29 1113 1356 1496 1514 1518 1516 1514 1514 30-34 1068 1195 1508 1528 1517 1513 1512 1513 35-39 963 1133 1544 1528 1509 1509 1511 1512 40-44 851 1097 1556 1491 1497 1505 1510 1511 45-49 783 1044 1544 1459 1490 1504 1508 1509 50-54 754 929 1317 1467 1493 1503 1505 1505 55-59 720 805 1143 1465 1498 1496 1497 1498 60-64 631 719 1058 1479 1483 1478 1485 1490 65-69 523 658 986 1459 1427 1451 1470 1479 70-74 426 573 879 1396 1364 1419 1450 1462 75+ 536 832 1526 2710 3860 4235 4458 4571 TOTAL 15262 18082 22130 25065 26230 26706 26996 27142 BIRTH RATE 19.5 15.8 13.3 12.3 12.0 11.8 11.7 DEATH RATE 8.4 7.8 8.5 10.5 11.2 11.3 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.11 .80 .49 .17 .07 .04 .02 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.671 2.107 2.067 2.062 2.060 2.058 2.057 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 71.75 76.25 80.65 83.08 84.41 85.41 85.81 IHR - BOTH SEXES 27.3 12.8 3.9 2.8 2.4 2.1 2.0 64 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES BAHAMA S, TEM Projection (thousands) with NRR=1 by 1990 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 232 255 278 303 327 347 365 381 397 412 MALES 0-4 14 12 13 15 15 15 14 14 14 15 5-9 14 15 12 13 15 15 15 14 14 14 10-14 16 15 15 12 13 15 15 15 14 14 15-19 14 17 15 15 12 13 15 15 15 14 20-24 10 15 17 15 15 12 13 15 15 15 25-29 7 11 15 17 15 15 12 13 15 15 30-34 7 7 11 15 17 15 15 12 13 15 35-39 7 7 8 11 15 17 14 14 12 13 40-44 6 7 7 8 11 15 16 14 14 12 45-49 5 6 7 7 7 11 14 16 14 14 50-54 4 5 6 7 7 7 10 14 16 14 55-59 3 4 5 6 7 7 7 10 13 15 60-64 2 3 4 4 5 6 6 6 9 13 65-69 2 2 2 3 4 4 5 6 6 8 70-74 1 2 1 2 2 3 4 4 5 5 75. 1 1 2 2 2 3 4 5 6 7 TOTAL 116 127 139 151 162 172 180 188 195 203 FEMALES 0-4 13 12 13 14 15 14 14 13 14 14 5-9 14 13 12 13 14 15 14 14 13 14 10-14 16 14 13 12 13 14 15 14 14 13 15-19 14 16 14 13 12 13 14 15 14 13 20-24 11 14 16 15 14 12 13 14 15 14 25-29 8 11 15 17 15 14 12 13 14 15 30-34 8 8 12 15 17 15 13 12 13 14 35-39 7 8 8 12 15 17 15 13 12 13 40-44 6 7 8 8 12 15 17 14 13 12 45-49 5 6 7 8 8 12 15 16 14 13 50-54 4 5 6 7 8 8 11 14 16 14 55-59 3 4 5 6 7 8 8 11 14 16 oO-64 3 3 4 4 5 6 8 8 11 14 65-69 2 3 3 3 4 5 6 7 8 11 70-74 1 2 2 2 3 4 5 6 7 7 75+ 1 1 2 3 3 4 6 7 9 12 TOTAL 116 128 139 152 165 175 184 193 201 209 BIRTH RATE 20.1 20.0 20.5 19.4 17.5 15.8 14.8 14.5 14.3 DEATH RATE 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.8 6.1 6.5 6.8 RATE OF MAT. INC. 1.44 1.44 1.50 1.40 1.20 1.00 .87 .80 .75 NET MIGRATION RATE 4.5 3.0 2.1 1.3 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.89 1.74 1.70 1.53 1.20 1.00 .87 .80 .75 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.300 2.132 2.112 2.101 2.095 2.089 2.084 2.078 2.072 NRR 1.065 1.00U, 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 67.93 69.62 71.32 72.99 74.00 75.07 76.19 77.36 78.60 e0i5) - B0TH SEXES 55.62 56.88 58.22 59.59 60.43 61.31 62.23 63.21 64.25 INR - BOTH SEXES 27.9 23.0 18.7 15.2 13.2 11.2 9.3 7.3 5.3 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0335 .0275 .0225 .0185 .0162 .0139 .0116 .0093 .0070 DEP. RATIO 70.9 55.1 48.2 45.7 47.1 47.6 46.5 45.3 44.9 48.0 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRrIORIES 65 Summary Projectfon for 25-Year Periods BAHAMAS, THE AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 232 303 397 451 467 477 483 486 MALES 0-4 14 15 14 14 14 14 14 14 5-9 14 13 14 14 14 14 14 14 10-14 16 12 14 1S 15 14 14 14 15-19 14 15 15 15 15 14 14 14 20-24 10 15 15 15 14 14 14 14 25-29 7 17 15 14 14 14 14 14 30-34 7 15 13 14 14 14 14 14 35-39 7 11 12 14 14 14 14 14 40-44 6 8 14 14 14 14 14 14 45-49 5 7 14 15 14 14 14 14 50-54 4 7 16 14 14 14 14 14 55-59 3 6 13 12 13 14 14 14 60-64 2 4 9 11 13 13 14 14 65-69 2 3 6 12 13 13 13 13 70-74 1 2 5 11 12 12 12 12 75+ 1 2 6 18 22 25 27 28 TOTAL 116 151 195 221 230 234 237 239 FEMALES 0-4 13 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 5-9 14 13 13 14 14 14 14 14 10-14 16 12 14 14 14 14 14 14 15-19 14 13 14 14 14 14 14 14 20-24 11 15 15 14 14 14 14 14 25-29 8 17 14 14 14 14 14 14 30-34 8 15 13 13 14 14 14 14 35-39 7 12 12 13 14 14 14 14 40-44 6 8 13 14 14 14 14 14 45-49 5 8 14 14 14 14 14 14 50-54 4 7 16 14 13 14 14 14 55-59 3 6 14 12 13 13 14 14 oO-64 3 4 11 11 13 14 14 14 65-69 2 3 8 12 13 14 13 13 70-74 1 2 7 13 13 13 13 13 75+ 1 3 9 28 33 37 40 41 TOTAL 116 152 201 230 238 242 245 247 BIRTH RATE 20.2 16.3 13.3 12.4 12.0 11.8 11.7 DEATH RATE 5.6 5.9 8.2 11.0 11.3 11.3 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE 3.1 .2 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.78 1.08 .51 .14 .08 .05 .03 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.183 2.090 2.069 2.063 2.060 2.058 2.057 o(O) - BOTH SEXES 69.72 75.23 79.99 82.68 84.17 85.28 85.71 INR - BOTH SEXES 22.9 11.3 4.4 3.0 2.5 2.1 2.0 66 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES BABADOS Projectfon (thousands) with NRR=1 by 2030 AGE GROUP 1985 1 90 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 253 257 263 270 276 281 286 292 298 304 MALES 0-4 11 10 11 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 5-9 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 10-14 13 11 10 9 10 10 10 9 9 9 15-19 13 13 10 10 9 10 10 10 9 9 20-24 13 12 12 10 10 9 10 10 9 9 25-29 12 12 12 12 10 10 9 10 10 9 30-34 10 11 12 12 12 9 9 9 10 10 35-39 7 10 11 12 11 11 9 9 8 10 40-44 5 7 9 11 11 11 11 9 9 8 45-49 4 5 6 9 11 11 11 11 9 9 50-54 4 4 5 6 9 10 11 11 11 9 55-59 4 4 4 4 6 9 10 11 11 10 60-64 4 4 3 3 4 6 8 10 10 10 65-69 4 4 3 3 3 4 5 8 9 10 70-74 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 5 7 8 75+ 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 10 TOTAL 121 124 127 131 135 137 140 143 146 149 FEMALES 0-4 11 9 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 5-9 11 11 9 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 10-14 13 11 10 9 10 10 9 9 8 9 15-19 13 13 10 10 9 10 9 9 9 8 20-24 13 12 12 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 25-29 12 12 12 12 10 10 8 9 9 9 30-34 10 11 12 12 12 9 9 8 9 9 35-39 8 10 11 12 12 11 9 9 8 9 40-44 5 8 9 11 12 11 11 9 9 8 45-49 5 5 8 9 11 12 11 11 9 9 50-54 5 5 5 7 9 11 11 11 11 9 55-59 5 5 5 5 7 9 11 11 11 11 60-64 5- 5 5 5 4 7 9 10 11 11 65-69 5 5 4 4 4 4 7 9 10 11 70-74 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 7 8 10 75+ 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 12 16 TOTAL 132 134 136 139 141 144 146 148 151 155 BIRTH RATE 15.4 16.3 15.5 14.6 13.5 12.6 12.3 12.2 12.2 DEATH RATE 9.1 8.4 7.7 7.2 7.0 7.0 7.1 7.4 7.9 RATE OF NAT. INC. .64 79 .79 .74 .65 .57 .52 .49 .42 NET MIGRATION RATE -3.1 -3.1 -3.0 -2.9 -2.9 -2.1 -1.4 -.7 .0 GROWTH RATE .32 .48 .48 .45 .36 .36 .38 .42 .42 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.800 1.800 1.800 1.844 1.887 1.929 1.970 2.010 2.049 NRR .858 .862 .864 .887 .909 .930 .951 .972 .992 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 74.33 75.63 76.87 78.05 78.76 79.48 80.23 81.01 81.82 e(15) - BOTH SEXES 60.66 61.70 62.78 63.84 64.47 65.12 65.80 66.50 67.22 INR - BOTH SEXES 12.0 9.4 7.7 6.5 5.8 5 2 4.6 3.9 3.3 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0148 .0117 .0098 .0084 .0076 .0069 .0061 .0054 .0046 DEP. RATIO 63.7 54.4 50.7 47.6 46.4 44.1 44.8 48.8 55.7 63.7 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 67 SuLmry Projectfon for 25-Year Perfods BARBADOS AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 253 270 298 307 303 305 307 308 MALES 0-4 11 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 5-9 11 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 10-14 13 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 15-19 13 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 20-24 13 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 25-29 12 12 10 9 9 9 9 9 30-34 10 12 10 9 9 9 9 9 35-39 7 12 8 9 9 9 9 9 40-44 5 11 9 9 9 9 9 9 45-49 4 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 50-54 4 6 11 9 9 9 9 9 55-59 4 4 11 9 8 9 9 9 60-64 4 3 10 8 8 8 9 9 65-69 4 3 9 s8 8 8 8 8 70-74 3 3 7 7 8 8 8 8 75+ 5 5 7 18 17 17 18 18 TOTAL 121 131 146 151 150 150 151 152 FEMALES 0-4 11 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 5-9 11 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 10-14 13 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 15-19 13 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 20-24 13 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 25-29 12 12 9 9 9 9 9 9 30-34 10 12 9 8 9 9 9 9 35-39 L 12 8 8 9 9 9 9 40-44 5 11 9 9 9 9 9 9 45-49 5 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 50-54 5 7 11 9 9 9 9 9 55-59 5 5 11 9 8 9 9 9 60-64 5 5 11 8 8 9 9 9 65-69 5 4 10 9 8 9 9 9 70-74 5 4 8 8 8 8 8 8 75+ 8 9 12 27 25 25 26 27 TOTAL 132 139 151 157 154 155 156 156 BIRTH RATE 15.8 13.0 11.7 11.8 t1.8 11.7 11.6 DEATH RATE 8.4 7.1 10.5 12.3 11.6 11.4 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE -3.1 -2.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .43 .39 .13 -.05 .02 .03 .01 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.787 1.924 2.060 2.060 2.059 2.057 2.057 e(O) BOTH SEXES 75.63 79.54 82.64 84.23 85.10 85.75 86.01 IMR - BOTH SEXES 9.6 5.2 3.0 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.9 68 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES BELIZE Projection (thousands) with NRR=I by 2020 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL N+F 166 188 215 245 275 303 329 354 379 406 MALES 0-4 12 15 18 19 19 18 17 16 17 18 5-9 14 11 15 17 19 19 18 17 16 17 10-14 13 13 11 15 17 19 19 18 17 16 15-19 11 12 13 11 15 17 19 19 18 17 20-24 7 10 12 13 11 15 17 19 19 18 25-29 5 7 10 12 13 10 14 17 18 18 30-34 3 5 7 10 11 12 10 14 17 18 35-39 3 3 5 6 9 11 12 10 14 16 40-44 3 3 3 5 6 9 11 12 10 14 45-49 3 3 3 3 4 6 9 11 12 10 50-54 2 3 3 3 2 4 6 9 11 12 55-59 2 2 3 3 3 2 4 6 8 10 60-64 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 4 5 8 65-69 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 5 70-74 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 75+ 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 TOTAL 83 94 108 122 137 151 164 176 189 203 FEMALES 0-4 12 15 17 18 18 17 16 16 16 17 5-9 14 11 15 17 18 18 17 16 16 16 10-14 13 13 11 15 17 18 18 17 16 16 15-19 11 12 13 11 14 16 18 18 17 16 20-24 7 10 12 13 11 14 16 18 18 17 25-29 5 7 10 12 13 11 14 16 18 18 30-34 3 5 7 10 12 13 10 14 16 18 35-39 3 3 5 7 9 11 12 10 14 16 40-44 3 3 3 5 6 9 11 12 10 14 45-49 3 3 3 3 5 6 9 11 12 10 50-54 2 3 3 3 3 4 6 9 11 12 55-59 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 6 9 11 60-64 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 6 9 65-69 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 2 4 6 70-74 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 4 75+ 1 1 1 2 2 3 4 4 5 5 TOTAL 83 94 108 123 138 152 165 177 190 204 BIRTH RATE 36.6 36.0 34.0 29.7 24.9 21.6 19.2 18.4 17.9 DEATH RATE 7.0 6.1 5.3 4.7 4.3 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 RATE OF NAT. INC. 2.95 2.98 2.88 2.50 2.06 1.75 1.51 1.43 1.38 NET MIGRATION RATE -4.5 -3.0 -2.6 -2.0 -1.4 -1.0 -.6 -.3 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.50 2.68 2.62 2.30 1.92 1.65 1.45 1.40 1.38 TOTAL FERTILITY 5.000 4.500 4.000 3.500 3.005 2.580 2.215 2.084 2.073 NRR 2.258 2.067 1.860 1.642 1.418 1.224 1.057 1.000 1.000 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 66.73 68.71 70.61 72.42 73.49 74.61 75.76 76.95 78.19 e05) - BOTH SEXES 56.35 57.57 58.84 60.12 60.81 61.53 62.28 63.07 63.89 IMR - BOTH SEXES 50.0 41.0 33.4 27.0 22.7 18.5 14.2 9.9 5.7 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0594 .0486 .0397 .0323 .0274 .0224 .0174 .0125 .0075 DEP. RATIO 97.5 87.3 79.7 82.4 77.2 67.7 57.0 48.1 44.5 44.3 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 69 Summary Projection for 25-Year Periods BELIZE AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 166 245 379 496 555 570 578 582 MALES 0-4 12 19 17 17 17 17 17 17 5-9 14 17 16 17 17 17 17 17 10-14 13 15 17 17 17 17 17 17 15-19 11 11 18 18 17 17 17 17 20-24 7 13 19 18 17 17 17 17 25-29 5 12 18 17 17 17 17 17 30-34 3 10 17 16 17 17 17 17 35-39 3 6 14 17 17 17 17 17 40-44 3 5 10 17 17 17 17 17 45-49 3 3 12 18 17 17 17 17 50-54 2 3 11 18 16 16 17 17 55-59 2 3 8 15 15 16 17 17 60-64 2 3 5 13 15 16 16 16 65-69 1 2 3 8 15 16 16 16 70-74 1 1 2 9 15 15 15 15 75+ 1 1 3 11 25 29 32 34 TOTAL 83 122 189 246 273 280 284 286 FEMALES 0-4 12 18 16 16 16 17 17 17 5-9 14 17 16 16 17 17 17 17 10-14 13 15 16 17 17 17 17 17 15-19 11 11 17 17 17 17 17 17 20-24 7 13 18 17 16 16 17 17 25-29 5 12 18 16 16 16 17 17 30-34 3 10 16 16 16 17 17 17 35-39 3 7 14 16 17 17 17 17 40-44 3 5 10 17 17 17 16 16 45-49 3 3 12 18 17 16 16 16 50-54 2 3 11 17 16 16 16 16 55-59 2 3 9 16 15 16 16 16 60-64 2 3 6 13 16 16 16 16 65-69 1 2 4 10 16 16 16 16 70-74 1 2 2 11 16 16 16 16 75+ 1 2 5 18 36 44 48 49 TOTAL 83 123 190 250 281 290 294 296 BIRTH RATE 35.4 22.3 15.5 12.9 12.1 11.8 11.7 DEATH RATE 6.1 4.2 5.0 8.4 11.0 11.3 11.4 NET MIGRATION RATE -3.3 -1.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.60 1.74 1.07 .45 .11 .06 .03 TOTAL FERTILITY 4.438 2.605 2.069 2.063 2.060 2.058 2.057 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 68.85 74.84 79.69 82.50 84.06 85.23 85.69 IMR - BOTH SEXES 40.9 18.8 4.7 3.0 2.5 2.1 2.0 70 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES BOLIVIA Projection (thousands) with NRR-1 by 2020 AGE GROWP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 6342 7171 8144 9145 10151 11133 12053 12888 13713 14547 MALES 0-4 555 551 628 650 657 653 630 598 606 626 5-9 453 538 535 614 639 647 646 624 594 603 10-14 382 448 533 531 610 636 644 643 622 592 15-19 323 377 443 527 527 605 632 641 640 620 20-24 271 315 369 435 519 520 599 626 636 636 25-29 226 261 306 360 426 511 512 592 620 631 30-34 189 217 252 297 352 418 504 506 586 616 35-39 162 181 210 245 291 345 412 497 501 581 40-44 131 155 175 203 239 284 339 405 490 494 45-49 108 125 149 169 197 232 277 330 396 480 50-54 93 102 118 142 161 188 223 266 319 384 55-59 79 85 94 110 132 150 177 210 252 303 60-64 60 70 76 84 99 119 137 161 192 232 65-69 42 50 58 64 72 84 103 118 141 169 70-74 28 32 38 45 50 56 67 82 95 114 75+ 23 28 33 39 48 55 64 76 94 114 TOTAL 3125 3533 4017 4515 5016 5506 5963 6377 6784 7196 FEMALES 0-4 546 535 609 629 634 631 609 578 586 606 5-9 453 530 522 597 620 627 625 605 576 585 10-14 385 448 526 518 593 617 624 623 604 575 15-19 328 381 444 522 515 590 615 622 622 603 20-24 279 323 376 439 517 511 587 612 620 621 25-29 236 273 317 370 434 512 507 583 609 618 30-34 201 231 268 312 365 429 508 503 580 607 35-39 171 196 226 263 308 361 425 504 500 577 40-44 139 167 192 222 259 303 357 421 499 496 45-49 117 135 163 188 217 254 298 351 415 493 50-54 101 113 131 158 183 212 248 292 344 407 55-59 85 95 108 125 151 176 204 240 283 335 60-64 66 78 88 100 117 142 166 194 228 271 65-69 48 58 69 79 90 106 129 152 179 212 70-74 33 38 47 56 65 75 90 111 132 157 75+ 30 36 44 54 66 81 98 120 151 189 TOTAL 3217 3638 4127 4631 5135 5628 6090 6511 6928 7351 BIRTH RATE 36.2 35.8 32.4 28.8 25.8 22.6 19.7 18.6 17.9 DEATH RATE 10.2 9.3 8.3 7.3 6.8 6.4 6.1 6.0 6.1 RATE OF NAT. INC. 2.59 2.65 2.41 2.16 1.90 1.62 1.36 1.25 1.18 NET MIGRATION RATE -1.4 -1.0 -.9 -.7 -.5 -.3 -.2 -.1 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.46 2.55 2.32 2.09 1.85 1.59 1.34 1.24 1.18 TOTAL FERTILITY 5.000 4.700 4.100 3.500 3.027 2.618 2.264 2.136 2.106 NRR 2.050 1.976 1.766 1.544 1.356 1.190 1.045 1.000 1.000 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 58.82 60.71 62.70 64.76 66.18 67.65 69.17 70.74 72.36 eCIS) - BOTH SEXES 53.25 54.14 54.98 55.84 56.53 57.24 57.97 58.73 59.53 IMR - BOTH SEXES 98.1 87.8 76.4 64.9 56.2 47.5 38.8 30.1 21.4 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .1266 .1119 .0956 .0790 .0684 .0578 .0471 .0364 .0257 DEP. RATIO 88.5 84.8 80.8 73.5 69.0 62.2 56.0 50.6 46.9 45.4 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 71 Sumary Projection for 25-Year Periods BOLIVIA AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 6342 9145 13713 17414 19456 20204 20701 20932 MALES 0-4 555 650 606 621 628 629 628 628 5-9 453 614 594 621 630 629 628 628 10-14 382 531 622 628 631 628 627 627 15-19 323 527 640 631 629 626 627 627 20-24 271 435 636 618 622 624 625 626 25-29 226 360 620 593 614 622 624 625 30-34 189 297 586 581 612 623 623 623 35-39 162 245 501 605 616 622 621 621 40-44 131 203 490 618 615 617 616 618 45-49 108 169 396 608 598 606 611 614 50-54 93 142 319 581 566 592 604 608 55-59 79 110 252 531 541 580 595 598 60-64 60 84 192 428 542 567 581 584 65-69 42 64 141 381 519 540 555 561 70-74 28 45 95 265 460 487 514 526 75+ 23 39 94 290 751 955 1120 1196 TOTAL 3125 4515 6784 8600 9572 9946 10200 10308 FEMALES 0-4 546 629 586 593 598 599 599 599 5-9 453 597 576 596 600 600 599 598 10-14 385 518 604 606 602 599 598 598 15-19 328 522 622 611 600 598 598 598 20-24 279 439 620 602 595 596 598 598 25-29 236 370 609 581 590 596 598 598 30-34 201 312 580 570 593 598 598 598 35-39 171 263 500 596 601 599 597 597 40-44 139 222 499 612 604 596 595 596 45-49 117 188 415 605 593 589 592 594 50-54 101 158 344 588 568 582 590 593 55-59 85 125 283 550 551 580 589 591 60-64 66 100 228 460 566 581 586 587 65-69 48 79 179 438 564 574 576 579 70-74 33 56 132 335 532 548 559 569 75+ 30 54 151 471 1126 1423 1629 1730 TOTAL 3217 4631 6928 8814 9885 10258 10501 10624 BIRTH RATE 34.6 22.7 16.0 13.3 12.4 12.0 11.8 DEATH RATE 9.2 6.5 6.5 8.9 10.9 11.0 11.4 NET MIGRATION RATE -1.1 -.3 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.44 1.62 .96 .44 .15 .10 .04 TOTAL FERTILITY 4.555 2.641 2.093 2.072 2.065 2.060 2.058 oCO) - BOTH SEXES 60.90 67.94 74.81 79.54 82.24 84.34 85.12 IMR - BOTH SEXES 86.9 48.1 15.0 4.7 3.3 2.4 2.2 72 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES BRAZIL Projection (thousands) with NRRa1 by 2005 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 135564 150368 164880 178267 190425 202340 214473 226218 236961 246476 MALES 0-4 9115 9700 9581 9086 8573 8736 9166 9313 9191 8992 5-9 8213 8994 9598 9501 9024 8523 8693 9129 9284 9169 10-14 74n 8173 8956 9564 9472 8998 8502 8675 9113 9271 15-19 6991 7425 8126 8910 9521 9432 8964 8473 8648 9089 20-24 6836 6919 7354 8058 8846 9457 9373 8913 8428 8607 25-29 5830 6752 6840 7281 7988 8775 9387 9310 8858 8381 30-34 4927 5754 6671 6768 7214 7921 8707 9320 9250 8807 35-39 3971 4852 5674 6588 6696 7143 7849 8635 9250 9188 40-44 3144 3891 4762 5580 6493 6605 7054 7758 8543 9161 45-49 2718 3052 3785 4644 5456 6358 6477 6926 7629 8412 50-54 2249 2596 2922 3634 4474 5269 6155 6285 6736 7437 55-59 1926 2094 2424 2739 3420 4227 4998 5861 6008 6465 60-64 1514 1728 1886 2194 2490 3128 3889 4626 5457 5628 65-69 1105 1284 1473 1618 1896 2170 2749 3447 4135 4918 70-74 818 855 999 1157 1290 1530 lm 2271 2880 3494 75+ 840 907 9n 1103 1320 1548 1862 2239 2848 3700 TOTAL 67670 74976 82023 88426 94173 99821 105596 111181 116259 120720 FEMALES 0-4 8957 9365 9237 8746 8239 8389 8794 8928 8804 8606 5-9 8155 8856 9285 9175 8699 8202 8359 8770 8911 8793 10-14 7453 8124 8830 9263 9157 8685 8191 8349 8763 8906 15-19 6942 7423 8101 8810 9245 9142 8672 8180 8340 8755 20-24 6797 6904 7396 8078 8790 9225 9124 8657 8167 8329 25-29 5832 6751 6875 7373 8058 8769 9205 9105 8640 8152 30-34 4955 5786 6716 6848 7351 8035 8745 9182 9083 8621 35-39 3984 4906 5747 6682 6819 7321 8005 8715 9152 9056 40-44 3155 3933 4860 5704 6639 6779 7281 7964 8673 9112 45-49 2742 3098 3877 4803 5648 6578 6720 7222 7904 8614 50-54 2291 2669 3031 3807 4730 5566 6489 6635 7137 7819 55-59 1983 2201 2583 2948 3718 4626 5452 6365 6518 7021 60-64 1583 1860 2087 2471 2842 3592 4480 5292 6193 6357 65-69 1179 1422 1701 1939 2327 2686 3410 4270 5065 5952 70-74 899 978 1215 1496 1746 2111 2455 3139 3960 4732 75, 987 ll15 1316 1696 2245 2814 3495 4263 5389 6931 TOTAL 67894 75393 82857 89841 96252 102519 108877 115037 120702 125756 BIRTH RATE 28.6 25.4 21.9 19.0 18.1 17.7 16.9 15.8 14.7 DEATH RATE 7.9 6.9 6.2 5.8 5.9 6.1 6.3 6.5 6.8 RAlE OF MAT. INC. 2.07 1.84 1.56 1.32 1.22 1.17 1.07 .93 .79 NEI MIGRATION RATE .0 -.0 -.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.07 ;.84 1.56 1.32 1.21 1.16 1.07 .93 .79 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.490 3.022 2.617 2.266 2.139 2.123 2.107 2.091 2.075 NRR 1.544 1.366 1.200 1.051 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 o(O) - BOTH SEXES 64.88 67.05 69.11 71.08 72.24 73.43 74.66 75.93 77.25 t1i) - BOTH SEXES 55.75 57.07 58.36 59.66 60.30 60.96 61.65 62.36 63.11 IMR - BOTH SEXES 63.0 53.8 44.9 36.9 30.9 25.0 19.1 13.2 7.2 q(S - BOTH SEXES .0762 .0641 .0532 .0437 .0369 .0300 .0231 .0162 .0093 DEP. RATIO 68.7 66.0 62.1 56.5 50.6 46.7 45.9 47.4 49.4 51.2 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 73 Suuary Projection for 25-Year Periods BRAZIL AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL N+F 135564 178267 236961 275079 290922 297924 302193 304266 MALES 0-4 9115 9086 9191 9148 9094 9075 9075 9076 5-9 8213 9501 9284 9098 9056 9059 9068 9071 10-14 7473 9564 9113 8981 9027 9059 9071 9071 15-19 6991 8910 8648 s885 9031 9067 9070 9066 20-24 6836 8058 8428 8917 9061 9063 9052 9049 25-29 5830 7281 8858 9063 9065 9027 9018 9022 30-34 4927 6768 9250 9125 8989 8967 8983 8997 35-39 3971 6588 9250 8913 8836 8908 8957 8975 40-44 3144 5580 8543 8408 8697 8874 8932 8945 45-49 2718 4644 7629 8127 8672 8857 8888 8890 50-54 2249 3634 6736 8406 8709 8776 8780 8790 55-59 1926 2739 6008 8536 8589 8560 8599 8642 60-64 1514 2194 5457 8162 8123 8202 8358 8445 65-69 1105 1618 4135 7012 n82 7756 8046 8159 70-74 818 1157 2880 5567 6481 n45 7598 7711 75+ 840 1103 2848 7975 13558 15652 16996 17675 TOTAL 67670 88426 116259 134323 142270 146150 148490 149585 FEMALES 0-4 8957 8746 8804 8732 8673 8653 8652 8653 5-9 8155 9175 8911 8695 8640 8641 8648 8650 10-14 7453 9263 8763 8593 8615 8642 8651 8651 15-19 6942 8810 8340 8519 8625 8655 8654 8650 20-24 6797 8078 8167 8580 8672 8666 8651 8646 25-29 5832 7373 8640 8762 8707 8655 8639 8640 30-34 4955 6848 9083 8861 8664 8619 8625 8635 35-39. 3984 6682 9152 8696 8549 8584 8619 8632 40-44 3155 5704 8673 8253 8457 8582 8623 8627 45-49 2742 4803 7904 8048 8493 8610 8620 8613 50-54 2291 3807 7137 8451 8630 8615 8588 8583 55-59 1983 2948 6518 8786 8661 8529 8519 8541 60-64 1583 2471 6193 8708 8408 8352 8438 8496 65-69 1179 1939 5065 8046 7851 8169 8366 8441 70-74 899 1496 3960 7021 7450 8051 8279 8342 75+ 987 1696 5389 14006 21557 23752 25131 25881 TOTAL 67894 89841 120702 140756 148652 1517m5 153704 154681 BIRTH RATE 25.1 17.4 13.8 12.5 12.1 11.8 11.7 DEATH RATE 7.0 6.1 7.9 10.3 11.1 11.3 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.83 1.14 .60 .22 .10 .06 .03 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.008 2.142 2.071 2.063 2.060 2.058 2.057 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 67.14 73.61 78.89 82.08 83.81 85.11 85.61 IHR - BOTH SEXES 54.2 24.9 5.7 3.2 2.6 2.2 2.0 74 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES CANADA Projection (thousards) with NRR=1 by 2030 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 25165 26522 27897 29158 30254 31189 32003 32738 33351 33789 MALES 0-4 938 966 1023 994 973 974 993 1014 1021 1018 5-9 909 956 980 1038 1006 981 980 997 1015 1020 10-14 924 923 968 992 1047 1012 986 983 998 1015 15-19 1005 937 934 978 1000 1053 1016 988 984 997 20-24 1206 1026 955 951 992 1010 1058 1019 989 981 25-29 1161 1233 1048 978 970 1005 1017 1062 1019 985 30-34 1066 1183 1250 1067 993 980 1010 1020 1061 1016 35-39 984 1081 1193 1261 1076 999 983 1011 1018 1057 40-44 778 989 1084 1196 1262 1076 997 980 1007 1012 45-49 644 775 983 1077 1189 1253 1068 990 972 998 50-54 618 631 760 965 1059 1169 1232 1051 975 958 55-59 588 594 609 737 937 1030 1137 1201 1026 952 60-64 525 550 560 578 703 897 988 1094 1158 992 65-69 402 472 500 515 537 655 840 929 1035 1101 70-74 322 338 404 436 455 478 589 761 849 953 75+ 384 440 502 601 698 778 849 991 1244 1504 TOTAL 12453 13094 13754 14365 14896 15350 15743 16092 16371 16559 FEMALES 0-4 892 914 968 940 920 921 938 958 964 961 5-9 863 911 929 983 952 928 926 942 959 964 10-14 877 878 923 941 992 959 933 930 944 959 15-19 956 896 893 937 952 1000 964 937 932 944 20-24 1171 991 923 918 957 967 1011 972 940 931 25-29 1164 1211 1023 953 943 975 979 1019 975 939 30-34 1077 1194 1234 1045 971 956 983 984 1021 974 35-39 981 1095 1208 1248 1056 979 961 987 985 1019 40-44 769 989 1101 1213 1251 1058 980 961 986 983 45-49 639 770 987 1099 1210 1248 1055 977 958 982 50-54 614 634 764 980 1092 1202 1240 1049 972 953 55-59 610 605 626 755 969 1080 1190 1228 1040 964 60-64 588 594 591 613 742 953 1064 1174 1213 1028 65-69 473 564 573 573 597 723 932 1042 1152 1192 70-74 405 439 529 543 547 573 696 899 1009 1119 75+ 632 745 872 1053 1207 1317 1407 1589 1931 2317 TOTAL 12712 13428 14143 14793 15358 15839 16260 16646 16980 17230 BIRTH RATE 14.5 14.6 13.5 12.7 12.3 12.2 12.2 12.1 11.8 DEATH RATE 7.3 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.6 8.0 8.3 8.6 9.2 RATE OF NAT. INC. .72 .75 .65 .55 .47 .43 .39 .34 .26 NET MIGRATION RATE 3.3 2.6 2.4 1.9 1.3 .9 .6 .3 .0 GROUTH RATE 1.05 1.01 .88 .74 .61 .52 .45 .37 .26 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.680 1.850 1.881 1.912 1.943 1.973 2.002 2.031 2.060 NRR .804 .886 .902 .919 .934 .949 .965 .979 .994 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 76.68 77.84 78.95 79.95 80.51 81.10 81.69 82.31 82.94 e(IS) - BOTH SEXES 62.54 63.69 64.68 65.60 66.11 66.64 67.18 67.73 68.30 INR - BOTH SEXES 7.3 7.0 6.0 5.3 4.8 4.3 3.8 3.3 2.8 q(S) - BOTH SEXES .0093 .0090 .0078 .0070 .0064 .0058 .0053 .0047 .0041 DEP. RATIO 46.8 47.5 49.0 49.1 48.9 49.3 52.9 58.1 64.9 71.8 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 75 Summry Projectfon for 25-Year Periods CANADA AGE GROtJP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL N+F 25165 29158 33351 33728 33501 33660 33829 33921 MALES 0-4 938 994 1021 1012 1010 1010 1010 1010 5-9 909 1038 1015 1007 1008 1009 1010 1010 10-14 924 992 998 1003 1008 1010 1010 1010 15-19 1005 978 984 1007 1010 1010 1009 1009 20-24 1206 951 989 1014 1010 1008 1007 1007 25-29 1161 978 1019 1013 1006 1004 1004 1005 30-34 1066 1067 1061 1005 998 1000 1002 1002 35-39 984 1261 1018 985 991 998 1000 1000 40-"4 778 1196 1007 966 991 996 997 997 45-49 644 1077 972 966 993 992 991 991 50-54 618 965 975 986 984 980 980 981 55-59 588 737 1026 1009 962 959 964 967 60-64 525 578 1158 942 921 933 943 947 65-69 402 515 1035 895 872 904 914 917 70-74 322 436 849 809 823 859 866 869 75+ 384 601 1244 1903 1926 1957 2012 2046 TOTAL 12453 14365 16371 16520 16515 16630 16720 16768 FEMALES 0-4 892 940 964 956 954 954 954 954 5-9 863 983 959 951 952 953 954 954 10-14 877 941 944 948 953 954 954 954 15-19 956 937 932 952 955 955 954 954 20-24 1171 918 940 960 957 954 953 953 25-29 1164 953 975 962 955 952 952 953 30-34 1077 1045 1021 957 949 951 952 953 35-39 981 1248 985 940 945 951 952 952 40-44 769 1213 986 926 948 952 952 951 45-49 639 1099 958 933 954 952 950 950 50-54 614 980 972 964 954 948 947 947 55-59 610 755 1040 1003 944 939 942 944 60-6 588 613 1213 960 922 930 938 941 65-69 473 573 1152 949 901 926 934 935 70-74 405 543 1009 904 893 921 924 924 75+ 632 1053 1931 2943 2851 2837 2897 2933 TOTAL 12712 14793 16980 17208 16986 17030 17110 17152 BIRTH RATE 14.2 12.3 11.6 11.8 11.7 11.7 11.6 DEATH RATE 7.2 8.0 11.2 12.0 11.6 11.5 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE 2.8 1.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .98 .54 .04 .03 .02 .02 .01 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.809 1.972 2.068 2.069 2.068 2.067 2.067 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 77.86 81.14 83.56 84.76 85.43 85.92 86.12 INR BOTH SEXES 6.8 4.3 2.6 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.9 76 COUNTRIE%S ECONObIES, AND TERRrrORIES CHL]E Projection (thousands) with NRR=1 by 2000 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 12121 13173 14137 14973 15763 16570 17383 18162 18867 19489 MALES 0-4 699 749 709 653 641 667 689 693 680 668 5-9 613 694 745 706 650 639 665 688 692 679 10-14 633 610 691 742 704 649 638 664 687 691 15-19 635 628 607 688 739 701 647 636 663 686 20-24 629 627 622 601 683 735 697 644 634 660 25-29 544 619 619 615 596 677 730 693 640 630 30-34 460 536 611 612 609 591 673 725 690 637 35-39 373 452 529 604 606 604 586 668 721 686 40-44 318 366 445 521 596 599 598 581 662 715 45-49 253 310 357 435 510 586 589 589 573 654 50-54 222 243 298 345 421 495 570 575 576 562 55-59 190 208 228 281 326 400 473 547 554 558 60-64 146 172 189 208 258 301 373 444 517 528 65-69 113 125 149 164 183 229 270 338 406 478 70-74 81 90 100 120 135 152 193 231 293 358 75+ 98 99 107 122 148 177 209 262 328 422 TOTAL 6007 6529 7006 7418 7806 8201 8598 8977 9316 9613 FEHALES 0-4 669 717 679 624 613 637 658 661 649 637 5-9 589 665 714 676 622 611 636 658 661 648 10-14 611 587 663 712 675 621 610 635 657 660 15-19 616 609 585 661 710 673 621 610 635 657 20-24 614 612 605 582 659 7Ua 672 620 609 634 25-29 536 609 607 601 579 656 706 671 619 608 30-34 457 531 604 603 598 576 654 704 669 617 35-39 377 453 527 600 600 595 574 652 702 667 4-44 329 373 449 522 596 596 592 572 649 700 45-49 267 324 369 443 517 591 592 588 568 646 50-54 244 262 318 362 437 s1o 583 585 582 563 55-59 215 237 255 310 354 428 500 573 576 574 60-64 175 205 227 245 299 343 415 487 560 564 65-69 145 162 191 213 231 284 327 398 470 543 70-74 112 127 143 171 192 211 261 304 374 445 75+ 156 172 196 228 275 328 383 467 571 712 TOTAL 6114 6644 7130 7555 7957 8369 8785 9185 9551 9876 BIRTH RATE 23.7 20.7 17.8 16.5 16.3 16.0 15.4 14.5 13.7 DEATH RATE 6.4 6.2 6.0 6.0 6.2 6.4 6.6 6.8 7.2 RATE OF NAT. INC. 1.73 1.46 1.18 1.05 1.01 .97 .88 .76 .65 NET MIGRATION RATE -.6 -.4 -.3 -.2 -.1 -.1 .0 .0 .0 GROUTH RATE 1.66 1.41 1.15 1.03 1.00 .96 .88 .76 .65 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.730 2.443 2.185 2.090 2.086 2.082 2.078 2.074 2.070 NRR 1.292 1.160 1.042 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 etO) - BOTH SEXES 71.50 72.30 73.28 74.38 75.32 76.30 77.33 78.41 79.55 e(15) - BOTH SEXES 58.38 58.95 59.70 60.59 61.41 62.26 63.16 64.11 65.10 INR - BOTH SEXES 18.1 15.5 13.0 10.8 9.5 8.3 7.0 5.7 4.4 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0222 .0191 .0160 .0134 .0119 .0105 *0090 .0075 .0060 DEP. RATIO 59.5 57.3 56.2 52.1 47.4 45.8 46.8 49.3 52.2 55.3 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 77 Sumary ProJection for 25-Year Periods CHILE AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 12121 14973 18867 21160 21963 22349 22581 22697 MALES 0-4 699 653 680 680 677 676 675 675 5-9 613 706 692 680 675 674 675 675 10-14 633 742 687 673 673 674 675 675 15-19 635 688 663 665 672 674 675 675 20-24 629 601 634 664 673 674 674 673 25-29 544 615 640 673 675 673 672 671 30-34 460 612 690 682 673 669 669 670 35-39 373 604 721 675 664 664 667 668 40-44 318 521 662 647 653 661 665 666 45-49 253 435 573 614 648 659 662 662 50-54 222 345 576 613 650 655 655 655 55-59 190 281 554 646 647 643 643 644 60-64 146 208 517 652 623 620 626 630 65-69 113 164 406 566 572 588 603 609 70-74 81 120 293 447 507 550 570 577 75+ 98 '-? 328 829 1115 1234 1303 1340 TOTAL 6007 74.8 9316 10407 10795 10990 11107 11166 FEMALES 0-4 669 624 649 649 646 644 644 644 5-9 589 676 661 648 644 643 643 644 10-14 611 712 657 642 641 643 644 644 15-19 616 661 635 635 641 643 644 644 20-24 614 582 609 636 644 644 644 643 25-29 536 601 619 647 647 644 643 643 30-34 457 603 669 658 646 642 642 642 35-39 377 600 702 653 639 639 641 642 40-6 329 522 649 629 631 638 641 642 45-49 267 443 568 602 630 640 641 641 50-54 244 362 582 607 638 641 640 639 55-59 215 310 576 651 645 637 635 636 60-64 175 245 560 674 635 626 629 633 65-69 145 213 470 610 603 612 624 629 70-74 112 171 374 515 563 601 617 622 75+ 156 228 571 1298 1675 1819 1902 1944 TOTAL 6114 7555 9551 10753 11168 11358 11474 11531 BIRTH RATE 20.6 15.7 13.1 12.2 11.9 11.8 11.7 DEATH RATE 6.2 6.4 8.6 10.7 11.2 11.4 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE -.5 -.1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.41 .92 .46 .15 .07 .04 .02 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.448 2.082 2.067 2.062 2.059 2.058 2.057 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 72.40 76.44 80.79 83.17 84.47 85.44 85.82 IMR - BOTH SEXES 15.6 8.2 3.8 2.8 2.4 2.1 2.0 78 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES COLOMBIA Projectfon (thousands) with NRR=I by 2000 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 29481 32345 35074 37622 40186 42820 45391 47794 49982 51963 MALES 0-4 2004 1938 1887 1799 1816 1878 1898 1883 1856 1846 5-9 1947 1980 1916 1870 1787 1808 1871 1893 1879 1853 10-14 1756 1933 1967 1907 1863 1782 1804 1868 1890 1877 15-19 1788 1740 1918 1954 1897 1855 1776 1799 1863 1886 20-24 1550 1758 1713 1895 1936 1884 1845 1767 1790 1855 25-29 1262 1513 1724 1686 1873 1921 1871 1833 1757 1781 30-34 1029 1230 1483 1697 1666 1857 1907 1859 1822 1747 35-39 801 1003 1204 1459 1676 1650 1842 1892 1846 1811 40-44 602 779 979 1181 1437 1655 1631 1822 1874 1830 45-49 478 582 755 953 1155 1408 1625 1604 1795 1848 50-54 398 456 557 725 919 1117 1366 1580 1563 1753 55-59 336 371 427 523 684 871 1063 1305 1516 1506 60-64 284 303 336 388 477 628 805 989 1223 1431 65-69 209 243 260 290 337 418 556 720 893 1115 70-74 151 163 191 207 234 275 347 467 612 769 75+ 163 172 187 218 252 293 352 443 595 807 TOTAL 14758 16164 17504 18752 20007 21300 22558 23725 24776 25715 FEMALES 0-4 1902 1863 1812 1726 1741 1798 1816 1800 1773 1761 5-9 1857 1881 1845 1798 1716 1734 1793 1812 1797 1771 10-14 1684 1846 1871 1837 1793 1713 1732 1791 1811 1796 15-19 1730 1673 1835 1863 1832 1790 1711 1730 1789 1809 20-24 1526 1711 1656 1822 1854 1827 1786 1708 1727 1787 25-29 1278 1503 1690 1640 1811 1847 1822 1782 1704 1724 30-34 1067 1259 1485 1675 1630 1804 1842 1817 1778 1700 35-39 829 1052 1243 1471 1664 1622 1796 1835 1811 1772 40-44 618 816 1037 1230 1459 1652 1612 1786 1825 1802 45-49 504 606 803 1023 1215 1443 1636 1597 1772 1812 50-54 432 492 592 786 1004 1195 1421 1613 1577 1752 55-59 368 416 475 574 765 979 1167 1391 1583 1551 60-64 312 348 395 453 550 735 944 1129 1351 1542 65-69 235 284 318 364 421 514 692 894 1077 1296 70-74 177 199 243 276 321 375 463 630 824 1003 75. 203 232 270 332 405 492 599 752 1008 1369 TOTAL 14723 16181 17570 18871 20179 21520 22833 24069 25206 26247 BIRTH RATE 25.8 22.9 20.1 18.8 18.1 17.2 16.1 15.0 14.3 DEATH RATE 6.0 5.6 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.7 6.1 6.5 RATE OF NAT. INC. 1.98 1.73 1.47 1.36 1.28 1.17 1.03 .90 .78 NET MIGRATION RATE -1.3 -1.1 -.7 -.4 -.1 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.85 1.62 1.40 1.32 1.27 1.17 1.03 .90 .78 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.900 2.549 2.241 2.128 2.118 2.107 2.097 2.086 2.076 NRR 1.333 1.180 1.046 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 68.21 69.20 70.40 71.73 72.83 73.99 75.19 76.45 77.76 e15) - BOTH SEXES 56.95 57.57 58.31 59.21 59.98 60.80 61.65 62.55 63.50 INR - BOTH SEXES 40.0 35.6 30.1 24.9 21.1 17.3 13.6 9.8 6.0 qC5) - BOTH SEXES .0474 .0422 .0358 .0299 .0255 .0211 .0167 .0123 .0079 DEP. RATIO 71.5 64.9 57.2 50.5 46.1 44.0 44.2 45.5 47.2 49.7 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 79 Summary Projection for 25-Year Periods COLOMBIA AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 29481 37622 49982 57482 59926 61265 62096 62499 MALES 0-4 2004 1799 1856 1869 1867 1864 1864 1863 5-9 1947 1870 1879 1873 1865 1862 1862 1862 10-14 1756 1907 1890 1867 1860 1860 1862 1862 15-19 1788 19S4 1863 1849 1855 1860 1861 1861 20-24 1550 1895 1790 1833 1852 1858 1858 1858 25-29 1262 1686 1757 1834 1853 1854 1853 1853 30-34 1029 1697 1822 1850 1852 1847 1847 1847 35-39 801 1459 1846 1852 1839 1837 1840 1842 40-44 602 1181 1874 1815 1812 1824 1833 1836 45-49 478 953 1795 1731 1785 1812 1823 1826 50-54 398 725 1563 1673 1766 1796 1805 1807 55-59 336 523 1516 1692 1747 1767 1773 1778 60-64 284 388 1223 1646 1697 1712 1726 1737 65-69 209 290 893 1566 1586 1624 1658 1677 70-74 151 207 612 1350 1402 1503 1560 1586 75+ 163 218 595 2011 2848 3276 3540 3664 TOTAL 14758 18752 24776 28311 29485 30156 30563 30758 FEMALES 0-4 1902 1726 1773 1782 1780 1777 1777 1776 5-9 1857 1798 1797 1787 1778 1776 1775 1776 10-14 1684 1837 1811 1782 1774 1774 1775 1776 15-19 1730 1863 1789 1767 1770 1774 1776 1776 20-24 1526 1822 1727 1756 1771 1776 1775 1775 25-29 1278 1640 1704 1764 1777 1776 1774 1774 30-34 1067 1675 1778 1787 1780 1774 1772 1773 35-39 829 1471 1811 1797 1772 1768 1770 1771 40-44 618 1230 1825 1770 1754 1761 1768 1770 45-49 504 1023 1m 1701 1737 1758 1766 1768 50-54 432 786 1577 1666 1737 1758 1762 1763 55-59 368 574 1583 1718 1745 1752 1753 1755 60-64 312 453 1351 1720 1735 1731 1737 1744 65-69 235 364 1077 1688 1681 1693 1716 1730 70-74 177 276 824 1567 1571 1645 1690 1708 75+ 203 332 1008 3120 4277 4816 5146 5308 TOTAL 14723 18871 25206 29170 30441 31109 31533 31741 BIRTH RATE 22.8 16.9 13.5 12.4 12.0 11.8 11.7 DEATH RATE 5.6 5.6 8.0 10.7 11.2 11.3 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE -1.0 -.1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.63 1.14 .56 .17 .09 .05 .03 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.546 2.107 2.072 2.064 2.060 2.058 2.058 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 69.33 74.17 79.31 82.30 83.94 85.17 85.66 INR - BOTH SEXES 35.4 17.3 5.0 3.1 2.5 2.2 2.0 80 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES COSTA RICA Projection (thousands) with NRR-1 by 2005 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 2489 2807 3106 3377 3623 3867 4117 4360 4583 4702 MALES 0-4 175 185 179 168 159 163 172 175 172 168 5-9 157 174 184 178 168 159 163 172 175 172 10-14 135 157 174 184 178 168 159 163 172 175 15-19 139 134 157 174 184 178 167 159 163 172 20-24 135 139 134 156 173 183 177 167 158 162 25-29 116 134 138 133 155 172 182 176 166 157 30-34 91 115 133 137 132 154 171 181 176 165 35-39 71 91 114 132 136 132 154 171 181 175 40-44 55 70 90 113 131 135 131 152 169 179 45-49 44 54 69 89 112 130 134 129 151 168 50-54 39 43 52 67 87 110 127 131 127 148 55-59 32 37 42 51 65 84 106 124 128 124 60-64 24 30 35 39 48 62 80 102 119 123 65-69 19 22 27 32 36 44 58 75 96 112 70-74 13 16 19 24 28 32 40 52 68 88 75+ 13 17 21 27 34 42 50 62 80 106 TOTAL 1258 1418 1569 1704 1827 1948 2072 2191 2300 2395 FEMALES 0-4 168 177 171 161 152 156 164 167 164 160 5-9 151 167 177 171 160 152 156 164 167 164 10-14 129 151 167 176 170 160 152 156 164 167 15-19 134 129 151 167 176 170 160 152 156 164 20-24 130 134 129 150 167 176 170 160 152 155 25-29 112 130 133 129 150 166 176 170 160 151 30-34 90 112 129 133 128 150 166 175 169 159 35-39 70 89 111 129 133 128 149 166 175 169 40-44 54 69 89 111 128 132 127 149 165 174 45-49 45 53 69 88 110 127 131 127 148 164 50-54 39 45 53 68 87 109 126 130 125 147 55-59 32 38 44 51 67 85 107 124 128 124 60-64 25 31 37 42 50 65 83 105 122 126 65-69 20 24 29 35 40 48 63 81 102 119 70-74 1S 18 22 27 32 38 45 59 77 97 75+ 17 22 28 36 46 57 70 86 110 145 TOTAL 1231 1389 1538 1673 1797 1919 2046 2169 2283 2386 BIRTH RATE 27.9 24.1 20.6 18.0 17.3 17.0 16.3 15.1 14.1 DEATH RATE 3.9 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.5 4.8 5.1 5.6 RATE OF MAT. INC. 2.41 2.03 1.67 1.41 1.30 1.25 1.15 1.00 .85 NET MIGRATION RATE .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.41 2.03 1.67 1.41 1.30 1.25 1.15 1.00 .85 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.260 2.858 2.506 2.197 2.085 2.080 2.076 2.071 2.067 NRR 1.545 1.359 1.196 1.052 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 eCo) - BOTH SEXES 74.64 75.48 76.42 77.40 78.16 78.94 79.75 80.58 81.45 e(15) - BOTH SEXES 61.52 62.13 62.85 63.62 64.22 64.85 65.50 66.18 66.87 IMR - BOTH SEXES 17.9 15.5 13.1 10.9 9.4 7.9 6.4 4.9 3.4 qtS) - BOTH SEXES .0219 .0189 .0161 .0135 .0118 .0100 .0083 .0066 .0048 DEP. RATIO 68.5 67.5 62.9 56.4 49.7 46.0 45.7 47.9 50.9 53.8 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 81 Summary Projection for 25-Year Periods COSTA RICA AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 2489 3377 4583 5329 5566 5640 5681 5702 MALES 0-4 175 168 172 171 170 169 169 169 5-9 157 178 175 170 169 169 169 169 10-14 135 184 172 168 168 169 169 169 15-19 139 174 163 166 169 169 169 169 20-24 135 156 158 167 169 169 169 169 25-29 116 133 166 171 170 169 168 168 30-34 91 137 176 173 169 168 168 168 35-39 71 132 181 170 166 167 167 168 40-44 55 113 169 160 164 166 167 167 45-49 44 89 151 154 16" 166 166 166 50-54 39 67 127 160 166 165 165 164 55-59 32 51 128 166 165 162 161 162 60-64 24 39 119 166 158 156 157 158 65-69 19 32 96 149 144 149 152 153 70-74 13 24 68 124 130 141 145 146 715 13 27 80 213 309 326 335 341 TOTAL 1258 1704 2300 2649 2749 2780 2798 2807 FEMALES 0-4 168 161 164 163 162 161 161 161 5-9 151 171 167 162 161 161 161 161 10-14 129 176 164 160 161 161 161 161 15-19 134 167 156 159 161 161 161 161 20-24 130 150 152 160 162 162 161 161 25-29 112 129 160 163 163 162 161 161 30-34 90 133 169 166 162 161 161 161 35-39 70 129 175 163 160 160 161 161 40-44 54 111 165 154 158 160 161 161 45-49 45 88 148 150 158 161 161 161 50-54 39 68 125 157 162 161 160 160 55-59 .32 51 128 165 163 160 159 159 60-64 LS 42 122 169 159 157 158 159 65-69 20 35 102 156 149 153 157 158 70-74 15 27 77 136 141 152 155 156 75+ 17 36 110 295 437 466 482 490 TOTAL 1231 1673 2283 2680 2818 2859 2883 2894 BIRTH RATE 24.0 16.7 13.2 12.1 11.8 11.7 11.7 DEATH RATE 3.9 4.6 7.3 10.4 11.3 11.4 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROUTH RATE 2.03 1.22 .60 .17 .05 .03 .01 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.850 2.100 2.065 2.061 2.059 2.058 2.057 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 75.58 79.06 82.35 84.06 85.00 85.70 85.99 INR - BOTH SEXES 15.6 7.9 3.1 2.5 2.2 2.0 2.0 82 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERITORIES CUBA Projection (thousands) with NRREI by 2030 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 10098 10617 11099 11615 12064 12449 12800 13142 13461 13738 MALES 0-4 401 463 468 463 433 411 411 424 435 435 5-9 390 397 457 466 461 431 409 410 423 434 10-14 575 387 393 455 464 459 430 408 409 423 15-19 606 5n 383 391 453 462 458 429 408 409 20-24 562 599 563 379 387 449 459 456 428 407 25-29 362 554 588 557 374 383 446 456 453 426 30-34 363 355 544 582 552 371 380 443 454 452 35-39 337 357 348 538 577 548 368 378 441 452 40-44 299 331 350 343 533 572 543 365 375 438 45-49 263 293 324 345 339 527 566 538 362 372 50-54 206 256 286 317 338 332 518 556 529 356 55-59 190 198 247 277 308 328 323 504 543 517 60-64 155 179 187 234 264 295 315 311 487 525 65-69 146 140 164 173 218 247 276 297 294 462 70-74 116 125 122 143 153 195 222 251 272 271 75+ 162 176 193 204 231 259 313 373 438 498 TOTAL 5134 5382 5615 5867 6085 6270 6438 6600 6750 6879 FEMALES 0-4 375 439 444 439 411 389 389 402 411 412 5-9 365 371 433 442 437 409 388 388 401 411 10-14 542 363 368 432 440 435 408 387 388 401 15-19 568 539 358 365 430 438 434 407 387 388 20-24 545 562 530 354 362 427 436 433 406 386 25-29 360 538 552 525 351 359 424 434 431 406 30 34 361 355 530 547 522 348 357 423 433 431 35-39 341 357 349 526 544 519 346 355 421 432 40-44 299 337 352 346 522 541 516 344 354 420 45-49 257 295 332 349 343 518 537 513 342 352 50-54 204 253 290 328 344 339 513 532 508 340 55-59 188 199 247 284 322 339 334 506 525 503 60-64 146 181 192 239 277 314 331 327 497 517 65-69 142 137 171 182 229 266 303 320 318 485 70-74 116 127 124 156 169 214 250 286 305 305 75+ 154 183 213 234 278 325 397 485 582 672 TOTAL 4964 5235 5484 5748 5979 6179 6362 6542 6711 6859 BIRTH RATE 17.7 17.1 16.1 14.4 13.2 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.5 DEATH RATE 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.3 6.5 6.9 7.3 7.9 8.4 RATE OF NAT. INC. 1.13 1.07 .98 .82 .67 .59 .55 .49 .41 NET MIGRATION RATE -1.2 -1.8 -.7 -.6 -.4 -.3 -.2 -.1 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.00 .89 .91 .76 .63 .56 .53 .48 .41 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.900 1.900 1.900 1.928 1.955 1.982 2.009 2.036 2.062 NRR .903 .905 .908 .923 .938 .952 .966 .981 .995 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 75.21 76.27 77.33 78.38 79.06 79.76 80.49 81.24 82.02 eCIS) - BOTH SEXES 61.63 62.46 63.35 64.27 64.85 65.46 66.09 66.74 67.42 IMR - BOTH SEXES 13.3 10.7 8.8 7.4 6.6 5.7 4.9 4.0 3.2 q(S) - BOTH SEXES .0163 .0133 .0111 .0095 .0085 .0075 .0065 .0055 .0045 DEP. RATIO 52.7 45.3 47.0 48.4 48.2 48.0 48.8 50.9 53.2 61.1 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 83 Summary Projection for 25-Year Periods CIU1BA AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 10098 11615 13461 14127 14064 14146 14234 14283 MALES 0-4 401 463 435 426 424 425 425 425 5-9 390 466 423 421 424 425 425 425 10-14 575 455 409 420 425 426 425 425 15-19 606 391 408 426 427 426 425 425 20-24 562 379 428 433 427 424 424 424 25-29 362 557 453 431 423 422 423 423 30-34 363 582 454 419 417 420 422 422 35-39 337 538 441 404 415 420 421 421 40-44 299 343 375 400 419 421 420 420 45-49 263 345 362 418 425 419 417 417 50-54 206 317 529 438 419 412 412 413 55-59 190 277 543 432 401 401 405 407 60-64 155 234 487 408 378 391 398 399 65-69 146 173 294 334 362 382 386 387 70-74 116 143 272 301 356 367 366 366 75+ 162 204 438 912 831 822 844 860 TOTAL 5134 5867 6750 7023 6973 7005 7039 7058 FEMALES 0-4 375 439 411 403 402 402 403 403 5-9 365 442 401 399 401 403 403 403 10-14 542 432 388 398 402 403 403 403 15-19 568 365 387 403 405 403 403 403 20-24 545 354 406 411 405 403 402 402 25-29 360 525 431 410 402 401 402 402 30-34 361 547 433 400 398 400 402 402 35-39 341 526 421 386 396 401 402 402 40-44 299 346 354 384 401 403 402 402 45-49 257 349 342 402 408 403 401 401 50-54 204 328 508 425 406 399 399 399 55-59 188 284 525 423 393 393 396 398 60-64 146 239 497 407 377 389 396 397 65-69 142 182 318 336 370 391 395 395 70-74 116 156 305 316 380 391 390 389 75+ 154 234 582 1201 1145 1156 1198 1224 TOTAL 4964 5748 6711 7103 7091 7141 7195 7225 BIRTH RATE 17.0 13.2 11.9 11.8 11.8 11.7 11.6 DEATH RATE 6.4 7.0 10.0 12.0 11.6 11.5 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE -1.2 -.3 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .93 .59 .19 -.02 .02 .02 .01 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.933 1.982 2.069 2.067 2.066 2.064 2.064 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 76.30 79.83 82.79 84.31 85.15 85.78 86.03 IMR - BOTH SEXES 11.0 5.7 2.9 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.9 84 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES DOM IMCA ProJection (thousands) wfth NRRa1 by 2000 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 74 72 74 79 85 91 97 102 108 113 MALES 0-4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5-9 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 10-14 5 5 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 15-19 5 5 5 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 20-24 4 4 5 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 25-29 2 3 4 5 4 3 4 4 4 4 30-34 2 2 3 4 5 4 3 4 4 4 35-39 1 1 2 2 4 5 4 3 4 4 40-44 1 1 1 2 2 3 4 4 3 4 45-49 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 4 3 50-54 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 4 55-59 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 60-64 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 65-69 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 70-74 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 75+ 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 TOTAL 35 34 36 38 41 44 47 50 53 56 FEMALES 0-4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5-9 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 10-14 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 15-19 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 20-24 3 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 25-29 2 3 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 30-34 2 2 2 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 35-39 1 1 2 2 4 5 4 4 4 4 40-44 1 1 1 1 2 4 5 4 4 4 45-49 1 1 1 1 1 2 4 5 4 3 50-54 1 1 1 I 1 1 2 4 5 4 55-59 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 4 5 60-64 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 65-69 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 70-74 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 75+ 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 TOTAL 39 38 39 41 44 47 49 52 55 57 BIRTH RATE 23.6 23.5 22.1 20.5 18.8 17.1 16.0 15.3 14.7 DEATH RATE 6.3 5.9 5.6 5.2 5.1 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.7 RATE OF NAT. INC. 1.74 1.76 1.65 1.53 1.38 1.23 1.12 1.06 1.01 NET MIGRATION RATE -22.0 -10.9 -5.2 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE -.47 .66 1.13 1.53 1.38 1.23 1.12 1.06 1.01 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.125 2.642 2.233 2.088 2.083 2.078 2.074 2.069 2.065 NRR 1.478 1.256 1.066 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 74.07 75.40 76.70 77.91 78.64 79.39 80.16 80.96 81.77 e(15) - BOTH SEXES 60.93 62.04 63.11 64.13 64.70 65.29 65.90 66.53 67.18 IMR - BOTH SEXES 17.9 15.4 12.9 10.7 9.2 7.8 6.3 4.8 3.3 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0219 .0188 .0158 .0133 .0116 .0098 .0081 .0064 .0046 DEP. RATIO 89.4 74.5 63.9 62.3 58.5 53.3 48.3 44.5 42.6 44.3 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 85 Suomry Projection for 25-Year Periods DOMINICA AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL N+F 74 79 108 131 136 137 138 139 MALES 0-4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5-9 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 10-14 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 15-19 5 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 20-24 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 25-29 2 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 30-34 2 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 35-39 1 2 4 4 4 4 4 4 40-44 1 2 3 4 4 4 4 4 45-49 1 1 4 4 4 4 4 4 50-54 1 1 4 4 4 4 4 4 55-59 1 1 3 4 4 4 4 4 60-64 1 1 2 3 4 4 4 4 65-69 1 1 1 3 4 4 4 4 70-74 1 1 1 4 3 3 4 4 75+ 1 1 1 6 7 8 8 8 TOTAL 35 38 53 64 67 68 68 68 FEMALES 0-4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5-9 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 10-14 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 15-19 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 20-24 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 25-29 2 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 30-34 2 4 4 4 4 4 '4 4 35-39 1 2 4 4 4 4 4 4 40-44 1 1 4 4 4 4 4 4 45-49 1 1 4 4 4 4 4 4 50-54 1 1 5 4 4 4 4 4 55-59 1 1 4 4 4 4 4 4 60-64 1 1 2 3 4 4 4 4 65-69 1 1 1 3 4 4 4 4 70-74 1 1 1 4 4 4 4 4 75+ 1 2 3 8 11 11 12 12 TOTAL 39 41 55 66 69 70 70 71 BIRTH RATE 23.1 17.4 13.4 12.1 11.8 11.7 11.6 DEATH RATE 5.9 4.9 5.9 10.6 11.3 11.4 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE -12.6 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTN RATE .4 1.26 .77 .15 .05 .03 .02 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.639 2.079 2.063 2.060 2.058 2.057 2.057 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 75.41 79.51 82.63 84.21 85.08 85.74 86.02 IMR - BOTH SEXES 15.4 7.8 3.0 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.9 86 COUNThIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES DOMINICAN REP. Projection (thousands) wIth NRR=1 by 2005 AGE GROWP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 6416 7074 7A&9 8293 8826 9355 9899 10437 10947 11420 MALES 0-4 473 468 461 440 413 415 429 432 427 419 5-9 421 461 457 451 432 407 410 425 430 426 10-14 399 416 455 452 447 429 404 408 424 430 15-19 381 393 410 450 448 443 426 402 407 423 20-24 339 370 383 400 441 440 437 421 399 405 25-29 274 325 35? 370 389 432 433 431 417 397 30-34 214 262 313 345 360 381 425 427 427 415 35-39 172 204 252 304 337 353 374 419 423 425 40-44 136 164 196 244 296 330 347 369 415 420 45-49 115 130 158 189 237 289 323 341 363 409 50-54 94 109 124 151 183 230 281 315 332 355 55-59 83 88 103 117 143 174 219 269 303 320 60-64 55 76 80 94 108 133 162 206 253 286 65-69 43 48 66 71 83 96 119 146 187 231 70-74 32 34 38 54 58 69 80 101 125 161 75+ 29 35 39 45 61 73 88 107 135 172 TOTAL 3260 3583 3894 4177 4436 4693 4958 5220 5467 5694 FEMALES 0-4 457 449 442 421 395 396 409 412 407 400 5-9 408 445 439 432 414 389 392 406 411 406 10-14 388 403 440 434 429 411 387 390 405 410 15-19 370 382 397 435 430 425 408 385 389 405 20-24 327 360 373 389 428 424 420 405 383 389 25-29 263 316 349 363 380 420 418 416 402 382 30-34 205 254 307 341 355 374 416 415 414 401 35-39 166 198 247 300 335 351 370 412 412 413 40-44 132 161 194 242 296 331 347 367 410 410 45-49 112 128 158 190 239 292 327 343 363 406 50-54 93 109 125 154 186 234 287 322 339 359 55-59 79 89 105 121 150 181 229 280 315 332 60-64 53 75 85 100 116 144 174 221 272 306 65-69 42 48 68 78 93 108 135 165 210 259 70-74 30 36 41 59 69 83 97 122 151 194 75+ 33 38 46 56 77 100 126 155 198 253 TOTAL 3156 3491 3816 4115 4390 4662 4941 5217 5480 5725 BIRTH RATE 29.4 26.1 22.8 19.8 18.6 18.0 17.0 15.8 14.8 DEATH RATE 6.6 5.9 5.5 5.2 5.3 5.5 5.7 6.0 6.3 RATE OF NAT. INC. 2.28 2.02 1.73 1.46 1.33 1.25 1.13 .99 .85 NET MIGRATION RATE -3.3 -3.0 -2.8 -2.1 -1.6 -1.1 -.7 -.3 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.95 1.72 1.46 1.25 1.17 1.13 1.06 .95 .85 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.500 3.032 2.626 2.275 2.148 2.131 2.113 2.096 2.080 NRR 1.545 1.361 1.197 1.050 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 e(0) - BOTH SEXES 65.97 67.68 69.46 71.20 72.36 73.56 74.80 76.08 77.41 e(15) - BOTH SEXES 57.02 57.87 58.81 59.80 60.41 61.05 61.73 62.43 63.17 INR - BOTH SEXES 61.0 52.5 43.8 36.0 30.1 24.1 18.2 12.2 6.3 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0787 .0667 .0550 .0448 .0375 .0302 .0228 .0155 .0081 DEP. RATIO 75.2 68.7 63.5 56.5 50.7 46.6 45.1 45.6 47.2 49.1 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 87 Suunary Projection for 25-Year Periods DOMINICAN REP. AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 6416 8293 10947 12819 13514 13821 14010 14103 MALES 0-4 473 440 427 424 422 421 421 421 5-9 421 451 430 422 420 420 420 420 10-14 399 452 424 418 419 420 420 420 15-19 381 450 407 415 419 420 420 420 20-24 339 400 399 416 420 420 420 419 25-29 274 370 417 422 420 419 418 418 30-34 214 345 427 424 418 416 417 417 35-39 172 304 423 416 412 414 416 416 40-44 136 244 415 396 407 412 414 415 45-49 115 189 363 386 406 411 412 412 50-54 94 151 332 398 406 408 403 408 55-59 83 117 303 397 400 399 400 401 60-64 55 94 253 378 381 384 389 392 65-69 43 71 187 348 347 365 375 379 70-74 32 54 125 275 313 342 354 359 75e 29 45 135 422 667 749 801 828 TOTAL 3260 4177 5467 6356 6678 6820 6905 6946 FEMALES 0-4 457 421 407 404 402 401 401 401 5-9 408 432 411 403 401 401 401 401 10-14 388 434 405 399 400 401 401 401 15-19 370 435 389 39t 400 401 401 401 20-24 327 389 383 3l.. 402 401 401 401 25-29 263 363 402 405 403 401 400 400 30-34 205 341 414 408 401 400 400 400 35-39 166 300 412 402 397 398 399 400 40-44 132 242 410 385 393 398 399 400 45-49 112 190 363 377 394 398 399 399 50-54 93 154 339 393 395 398 398 398 55-59 79 121 315 399 398 394 395 396 60-64 53 100 272 390 387 387 391 393 65-69 42 78 210 376 364 378 387 391 70-74 30 59 151 317 345 371 382 386 75+ 33 56 198 615 954 1072 1150 1191 TOTAL 3156 4115 5480 6463 6836 7000 7105 7157 BIRTH RATE 25.9 17.7 13.8 12.5 12.1 11.8 11.7 DEATH RATE 6.0 5.5 7.5 10.4 11.2 11.3 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE -3.0 -1.1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.71 1.11 .63 .21 .09 .05 .03 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.022 2.151 2.074 2.065 2.061 2.059 2.058 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 67.80 73.73 79.01 82.10 83.81 85.10 85.61 INR - BOTH SEXES 52.6 24.1 5.1 3.2 2.6 2.2 2.0 88 COUNTRIES ECONObMES, AND TERRiTORIES ECUADOR ProJectfon (thousands) wfth NRR-1 by 2010 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 9205 10284 11425 12577 13674 14670 15642 16621 17570 18456 MALES 0-4 712 726 742 742 724 687 693 718 727 722 5-9 643 699 716 734 736 719 684 690 716 725 10-14 580 637 695 713 732 734 717 682 689 715 15-19 519 573 631 690 709 728 730 714 680 687 20-24 438 507 565 625 685 704 723 726 710 676 25-29 364 424 498 558 619 678 698 716 721 706 30-34 306 353 416 492 552 613 672 693 713 717 35-39 241 297 346 s11 486 546 607 667 687 708 40-44 192 233 290 340 404 479 539 59 659 681 45-49 161 184 226 282 332 396 470 529 589 649 50-54 128 153 176 217 272 321 383 456 515 575 55-59 105 119 143 165 204 257 304 365 436 494 60-64 83 94 108 130 150 187 237 282 340 408 65-69 64 71 81 93 112 131 164 210 252 306 70-74 45 50 55 64 74 91 107 136 176 213 75+ 49 52 57 63 74 89 110 135 172 225 TOTAL 4630 5172 5744 6320 6866 7359 7838 8319 8782 9209 FEMALES 0-4 690 700 715 714 696 660 664 687 695 689 5-9 624 678 692 709 710 692 657 662 685 694 10-14 564 619 674 690 707 708 691 656 661 685 15-19 506 558 614 672 687 705 706 689 655 660 20-24 428 495 551 610 668 684 702 704 687 653 25-29 359 415 487 546 606 664 681 699 702 686 30-34 303 348 409 483 542 602 661 678 697 700 35-39 239 295 343 404 479 538 598 657 675 694 40-44 192 233 290 338 400 474 533 594 653 671 45-49 162 187 228 285 333 395 468 527 588 647 50-54 131 157 181 223 279 326 387 460 519 580 55-59 109 126 151 175 215 270 317 377 449 508 60-64 87 101 118 142 166 205 258 304 363 435 65-69 69 78 91 107 130 152 190 241 286 345 70-74 51 57 64 77 91 112 133 168 217 261 75+ 61 65 72 82 100 123 156 197 255 339 TOTAL 4575 5112 5681 6257 6808 7311 7804 8302 8788 9247 BIRTH RATE 31.4 28.5 25.5 22.6 19.7 18.5 17.8 16.9 15.8 DEATH RATE 7.1 6.5 6.0 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.8 6.0 RATE OF NAT. INC. 2.42 2.20 1.96 1.70 1.43 1.30 1.22 1.11 .98 NET NIGRATION RATE -2.1 -.9 -.3 -.3 -.2 -A -.1 -.0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.22 2.10 1.92 1.67 1.41 1.28 1.21 1.11 .98 TOTAL FERTILITY 4.100 3.500 3.026 2.616 2.262 2.134 2.117 2.101 2.085 NRR 1.823 1.576 1.381 1.207 1.052 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 SCO) - BOTH SEXES 65.45 66.54 67.88 69.33 70.58 71.87 73.22 74.62 76.09 0(15) - BOTH SEXES 55.78 56.42 57.10 57.93 58.67 59.45 60.27 61.14 62.06 INR - BOTH SEXES 58.0 52.6 45.2 37.9 32.0 26.1 20.2 14.3 8.4 qC5) - BOTH SEXES .0692 .0626 .0535 .0449 .0381 .0312 .0243 .0175 .0106 DEP. RATIO 82.2 75.7 68.7 61.5 55.6 50.1 46.5 45.3 45.9 47.2 COUMNTRIS, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 89 Sumary Projectfon for 25-Year Periods ECUADOR AGE GROWP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 9205 12577 17570 21169 22710 23310 23683 23868 MALES 0-4 712 742 727 716 713 713 713 713 5-9 643 734 716 709 711 712 713 713 10-14 580 713 689 705 712 713 713 713 15-19 519 690 680 709 714 713 712 712 20-24 438 625 710 716 714 711 711 711 25-29 364 558 721 717 709 708 708 709 30-34 306 492 713 703 701 704 706 707 35-39 241 411 687 674 694 702 705 705 40-44 192 340 659 661 694 702 703 703 45-49 161 282 589 685 696 698 698 698 50-54 128 217 515 685 689 687 688 690 55-59 105 165 436 658 662 667 675 68n 60-64 83 130 340 607 614 644 659 665 65-69 64 93 252 542 573 619 636 642 70-74 45 64 176 431 547 582 599 605 75. 49 63 172 580 1067 1223 1332 1389 TOTAL 4630 6320 6782 10497 11210 11499 11671 11753 FEMALES 0-4 690 714 695 682 679 679 680 680 5-9 624 709 685 676 678 679 680 680 10-14 564 690 661 673 679 680 680 680 15-19 506 672 655 677 681 680 680 679 20-24 428 610 687 686 682 680 679 679 25-29 359 546 702 690 680 678 678 679 30-34 303 483 697 680 673 676 678 678 35-39 239 404 675 655 669 676 678 678 40-44 192 338 653 646 671 677 678 677 45-49 162 285 588 675 678 677 676 676 50-54 131 223 519 683 678 671 672 673 55-59 109 175 449 669 662 661 667 671 60-64 87 142 363 634 628 651 663 667 65-69 69 107 286 592 607 64 658 662 70-74 51 77 217 503 612 636 648 652 75+ 61 82 255 850 1541 1765 1920 2004 TOTAL 4575 6257 8788 10672 11500 11611 12012 12115 BIRTH RATE 28.3 18.9 14.4 12.7 12.2 11.9 11.7 DEATH RATE 6.5 5.6 7.0 9.9 11.1 11.2 11.4 NET MIGRATION RATE -1.0 -.1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROUTH RATE 2.08 1.34 .75 .28 .10 .06 .03 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.487 2.233 2.078 2.066 2.062 2.059 2.058 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 66.71 72.10 77.91 81.45 83.42 84.91 85.49 INR - BOTH SEXES 51.9 26.1 6.6 3.5 2.7 2.2 2.1 90 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRrrORIES EL SALVADOR ProJection (thousands) with NRRul by 2015 AGE GROWP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL H+F 4767 5213 5703 6247 6816 7356 7846 8345 8883 9446 MALES 0-4 402 404 411 427 429 407 376 374 390 399 5-9 381 384 390 399 418 421 401 371 372 389 10-14 335 371 376 383 394 413 417 398 370 371 ¶5-19 277 324 362 368 376 388 408 414 396 368 20-24 189 256 307 347 356 366 380 402 409 394 25-29 143 163 235 288 331 343 356 372 397 407 30-34 120 121 145 219 274 319 333 349 367 395 35-39 99 103 107 133 208 265 311 327 344 365 40-44 93 86 92 98 126 200 257 305 322 341 45-49 78 83 78 85 92 120 193 251 298 316 50-54 66 70 76 72 80 87 114 186 243 290 55-59 55 59 64 70 67 75 82 108 177 232 60-64 43 48 52 57 63 61 68 75 100 165 65-69 32 35 39 43 48 54 53 60 67 90 70-74 22 24 27 30 34 38 43 43 49 56 75+ 18 22 25 29 34 40 46 54 58 66 TOTAL 2353 2554 2785 3049 3329 3595 3839 4088 4359 4643 FEMALES 0-4 387 390 396 411 412 391 361 359 374 382 5-9 367 370 377 386 403 405 386 357 357 373 10-14 324 358 363 371 380 399 402 383 356 357 15-19 269 315 350 356 365 376 395 399 382 355 20-24 205 254 301 338 346 357 370 391 397 381 25-29 159 187 238 288 327 337 350 364 388 396 30-34 136 145 175 227 278 319 331 346 362 387 35-39 111 126 137 168 220 272 314 327 343 361 40-44 101 105 120 131 163 216 269 311 324 341 45-49 86 96 100 116 128 160 213 265 307 322 50-54 72 82 93 97 113 125 156 209 261 303 55-59 61 68 78 89 94 109 121 152 204 256 60-64 48 57 64 74 84 89 105 116 147 198 65-69 37 43 51 58 67 77 83 98 110 140 70-74 26 31 36 43 49 58 68 74 89 101 7-r, 26 32 39 47 57 70 86 106 124 150 TOTAL 2414 2659 2918 3198 3487 3760 4007 4257 4524 4802 BIRTH RATE 34.6 31.7 29.6 26.9 23.4 20.0 18.6 18.1 17.2 DEATH RATE 8.3 7.3 6.4 5.6 5.3 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.0 RATE OF NAT. INC., 2.64 2.44 2.33 2.13 1.81 1.49 1.36 1.31 1.23 NET MIGRATION RATE -8.5 -6.4 -5.0 -3.8 -2.8 -2.0 -1.2 -.6 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.79 1.80 1.82 1.74 1.52 1.29 1.23 1.25 1.23 TOTAL FERTILITY 4.600 4.047 3.493 3.012 2.597 2.240 2.111 2.097 2.083 NRR 2.015 1.812 1.596 1.398 1.214 1.054 1.000 1.000 1.000 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 62.16 64.52 66.82 69.02 70.26 71.55 72.90 74.30 75.77 eS15) - BOTH SEXES 53.27 54.50 55.84 57.25 58.09 58.98 59.90 60.87 61.90 INR - BOTH SEXES 59.0 48.9 40.0 32.5 27.9 23.4 18.8 14.3 9.7 qC5) - BOTH SEXES .0792 .0635 .0502 .0396 .0342 .0287 .0232 .0177 .0122 DEP. RATIO 97.8 89.7 79.7 72.5 66.6 60.5 53.1 47.2 4.O 43.7 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 91 Sumary Projectfon for 25-Year Perfods EL SALVADOR AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 4767 6247 8883 11287 12394 12743 12966 13075 MALES 0-4 402 427 390 387 389 391 391 391 5-9 381 399 372 385 390 391 391 390 10-14 335 383 370 389 392 391 391 390 15-19 277 368 396 395 393 390 390 390 20-24 189 347 409 395 389 388 389 389 25-29 143 288 397 384 383 386 388 389 30-34 120 219 367 365 380 386 388 388 35-39 99 133 344 361 382 387 387 386 40-44 93 98 322 384 387 386 384 385 45-49 78 85 298 394 384 380 381 382 50-54 66 72 243 376 368 371 376 378 55-59 55 70 177 337 342 361 370 373 60-64 43 57 100 301 327 354 363 364 65-69 32 43 67 260 330 343 349 351 70-74 22 30 49 213 310 319 325 330 75e 18 29 58 232 539 640 717 756 TOTAL 2353 3049 4359 5558 6087 6264 6378 6432 FEMALES 0-4 387 411 374 369 371 372 373 373 5-9 367 386 357 368 372 373 373 372 10-14 324 371 356 372 374 373 372 372 15-19 269 356 382 379 375 373 372 372 20-24 205 338 397 381 372 371 372 372 25-29 159 288 388 372 368 370 372 372 30-34 136 227 362 355 366 371 372 372 35-39 1I 168 343 352 370 373 372 372 40-44 101 131 324 377 376 373 371 371 45-49 86 116 307 390 376 369 369 370 50-54 72 97 261 378 365 364 367 369 55-59 61 89 204 348 345 360 366 368 60-64 48 74 147 323 339 360 366 366 65-69 37 58 110 296 355 362 363 363 70-74 26 43 89 265 355 354 354 356 75+ 26 47 124 404 825 961 1054 1102 TOTAL 2414 3198 4524 5729 6307 6479 6588 6643 BIRTH RATE 31.8 21.1 15.2 12.9 12.2 11.9 11.7 DEATH RATE 7.3 5.2 5.7 9.2 11.1 11.2 11.4 NET MIGRATION RATE -6.5 -2.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.80 1.41 .96 .37 .11 .07 .03 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.992 2.381 2.077 2.066 2.062 2.059 2.058 etO) - BOTH SEXES 64.64 71.79 77.68 81.32 83.34 84.88 85.47 IMR - BOTH SEXES 49.2 23.7 7.4 3.6 2.8 2.2 2.1 92 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES GRENADA Projection (thousands) with NRR=1 by 2005 AGE GROUP 1985 1S90 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 94 91 89 93 99 106 113 120 127 133 MALES 0-4 7 6 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 5-9 5 6 6 S 5 4 5 5 5 5 10-14 5 4 6 6 5 5 4 5 5 5 15-19 7 4 4 6 6 5 5 4 5 5 20-24 6 6 4 4 6 6 5 5 4 5 25-29 4 5 5 3 4 6 6 5 5 4 30-34 3 3 4 5 3 4 6 6 5 5 35-39 1 2 2 4 5 3 4 6 6 5 40-44 1 0 2 2 4 5 3 4 5 6 45-49 1 1 0 2 2 4 5 3 4 5 50-54 1 1 1 0 2 2 4 5 3 4 55-59 1 1 1 0 0 2 2 3 4 3 60-64 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 2 3 4 65-69 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 2 3 70-74 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 2 75+ 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 TOTAL 45 44 43 44 48 51 55 59 63 66 FEMALES 0-4 7 6 5 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5-9 5 6 6 S 4 t 5 5 5 5 10-14 5 4 6 5 5 4 4 5 5 5 15-19 7 4 4 6 5 5 4 4 5 5 20-24 6 6 3 4 6 5 5 4 4 5 25-29 4 5 5 3 4 6 5 5 4 4 30-34 3 3 4 4 3 4 6 5 5 4 35-39 2 2 2 4 4 3 4 5 5 5 40-44 2 2 2 2 4 4 3 4 5 5 45-49 2 2 1 2 2 4 4 3 4 5 50-54 2 2 2 1 2 2 4 4 3 4 55-59 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 3 4 3 60-64 1 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 3 4 65-69 1 1 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 3 70-74 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 75+ 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 3 3 TOTAL 49 47 46 48 51 54 58 61 64 67 BIRTH RATE 29.4 25.2 20.9 18.6 18.5 18.6 17.5 15.9 14.5 DEATH RATE 7.7 7.1 6.2 5.4 5.4 S.2 5.1 4.9 5.0 RATE OF MAT. INC. 2.17 1.81 1.47 1.31 1.31 1.34 1.25 1.10 .96 NET MIGRATION RATE -28.1 -22.2 -6.6 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE -.65 -.41 .81 1.31 1.31 1.34 1.25 1.09 .96 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.284 2.879 2.525 2.213 2.100 2.092 2.085 2.077 2.070 NRR 1.514 1.346 1.190 1.050 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 68.56 70.48 72.29 73.99 74.96 75.98 77.03 78.12 79.25 0(15) - BOTH SEXES 56.95 58.31 59.66 60.98 61.68 62.42 63.19 64.00 64.84 IMR - BOTH SEXES 34.0 28.6 23.5 19.1 16.2 13.3 10.5 7.6 4.7 q(5; - BOTH SEXES .0417 .0344 .0281 .0229 .0196 .0163 .0130 .0097 .0064 OEP. RATIO 70.2 74.8 79.1 65.9 54.1 47.2 43.7 44.5 45.1 48.0 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 93 Sumary Projectfon for 25-Year Perfods GIENADA AGE GROUtP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 94 93 127 151 159 162 164 165 MALES 0-4 7 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5-9 5 5 5 S 5 5 5 5 10-14 5 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 15-19 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 20-24 6 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 25-29 4 3 5 5 5 5 5 5 30-34 3 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 35-39 1 4 6 5 5 5 5 5 40-44 1 2 5 5 5 5 5 5 45-49 1 2 4 4 5 5 5 5 50-54 1 0 3 4 5 5 5 5 55-59 1 0 4 5 5 5 5 5 60-64 1 1 3 5 5 5 5 5 65-69 1 1 2 5 4 4 4 4 70-74 1 1 1 3 3 4 4 4 75+ 1 1 0 5 8 9 9 10 TOTAL 45 44 63 75 78 0 81 81 FEMALES 0-4 7 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5-9 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 10-14 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 15-19 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 20-24 6 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 25-29 4 3 4 5 5 5 5 5 30-34 3 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 35-39 2 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 40-44 2 2 5 5 5 5 5 5 45-49 2 2 4 4 5 5 5 5 50-54 2 1 3 4 5 5 5 5 55-59 2 2 4 5 5 5 5 5 60-64 1 2 3 5 5 5 5 5 65-69 1 2 2 5 4 4 5 5 70-74 1 1 2 3 4 4 4 5 75+ 1 1 3 7 12 13 14 14 TOTAL 49 48 64 76 81 83 84 84 BIRTH RATE 25.2 17.7 13.7 12.3 12.0 11.8 11.7 DEATH RATE. 7.0 5.2 6.9 10.3 11.1 11.3 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE -19.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE -.08 1.26 .69 .21 .09 .05 .02 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.909 2.110 2.067 2.062 2.059 2.058 2.057 oeO) - BOTH SEXES 70.43 76.15 80.54 83.00 84.37 85.39 85.79 IMR - BOTH SEXES 29.3 13.2 4.0 2.8 2.4 2.1 2.0 94 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TlERSRITP.!ES GUADELUPE Projectfon (thousands) with NRR=1 by 1995 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+f 348 387 403 417 431 447 466 486 504 520 MALES 0-4 18 22 20 18 16 16 17 18 18 17 5-9 14 18 22 19 17 16 16 17 18 18 10-14 19 14 18 21 19 17 16 16 17 18 15-19 21 19 13 17 21 19 17 16 16 17 20-24 20 21 18 13 17 21 19 17 16 16 25-29 14 20 20 17 12 16 21 19 17 16 30-34 10 14 19 19 17 12 16 20 18 17 35-39 9 11 13 19 19 16 12 16 20 18 40-44 8 10 10 13 18 18 16 12 16 20 45-49 7 8 9 10 12 18 18 16 11 16 50-54 6 7 8 9 9 12 17 18 16 11 55-59 6 6 7 8 8 9 12 17 17 15 60-64 5 6 6 6 7 8 9 11 16 16 65-69 4 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 10 15 70-74 3 3 4 4 4 5 6 6 7 9 75+ 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 9 10 12 TOTAL 170 190 196 202 209 216 226 236 245 253 FEMALES 0-4 17 21 19 17 16 16 17 17 17 16 5-9 12 17 21 18 16 15 16 17 17 17 10-14 18 13 17 20 18 16 15 16 17 17 15-19 21 18 12 16 20 18 16 15 16 17 20-24 20 21 17 12 16 20 18 16 15 16 25-29 14 20 20 16 11 16 20 18 16 15 30-34 11 14 20 20 16 11 16 20 18 16 35-39 11 12 14 19 20 16 11 15 20 18 40-44 9 12 11 13 19 19 16 11 15 20 45-49 8 9 11 11 13 19 19 16 11 15 50-54 7 8 9 11 11 13 19 19 16 11 55-59 7 7 8 9 11 11 13 19 19 16 60-64 6 7 7 8 9 11 11 13 18 19 65-69 5 6 7 7 8 9 11 11 12 18 70-74 4 5 5 6 6 7 8 10 10 12 75+ 6 7 8 10 12 14 15 18 21 24 TOTAL 178 198 207 214 222 230 240 250 259 266 BIRTH kATE 23.9 20.1 17.2 15.4 14.9 15.1 14.9 14.1 13.2 DEATH RATF; 6.9 6.2 6.0 6.0 6.2 6.5 6.6 6.9 7.2 RATE OF NAT. INC. 1.TC 1.39 1.12 .95 .87 .86 .83 .73 .60 NEr MIGRATION RATE 4.4 -6.1 -4.4 -2.8 -1.4 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.14 .78 .68 .66 .73 .86 .83 .73 .60 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.600 2.224 2.090 2.084 2.080 2.076 2.072 2.068 2.064 NRR 1.236 1.061 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 eCO) - BOTH St'XES 73.49 74.98 76.36 77.60 78.35 79.12 79.92 80.75 81.61 eC15) - BOTH SEXES 60.20 61.52 62.71 63.76 64.37 65.00 65.65 66.33 67.04 INR - BOTH SEXES 16.0 14.0 11.9 10.0 8.7 7.4 6.0 4.7 3.4 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0197 .0173 .0147 .0124 .0109 .0094 .0079 .0063 .0048 DEP. RATIO 55.6 53.7 58.6 56.5 50.3 47.7 48.4 50.3 53.2 59.3 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 95 Summary Projection for 25-Year Periods GUADELOUPE AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 348 417 504 556 571 578 582 584 MALES 0-4 18 18 18 18 17 17 17 17 5-9 14 19 18 17 17 17 17 17 10-14 19 21 17 17 17 17 17 17 15-19 21 17 16 17 17 17 17 17 20-24 20 13 16 17 17 17 17 17 25-29 14 17 17 18 17 17 17 17 30-34 10 19 18 18 17 17 17 17 35-39 9 19 20 17 17 17 17 17 40-44 8 13, 16 16 17 17 17 17 45-49 7 10 11 16 17 17 17 17 50-54 6 9 16 16 17 17 17 17 55-59 6 8 17 17 17 17 16 17 60-64 5 6 16 19 16 16 16 16 65-69 4 5 10 14 14 15 16 16 70-74 3 4 7 9 13 14 15 15 75+ 4 5 10 26 31 33 34 35 TOTAL 170 202 245 272 280 284 286 287 FEMALES 0-4 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 5-9 12 18 17 17 16 16 17 17 10-14 18 20 17 16 16 17 17 17 15-19 21 16 16 16 16 17 17 17 20-24 20 12 15 16 17 17 17 17 25-29 14 16 16 17 17 17 17 17 30-34 11 20 18 17 17 16 16 16 35-39 11 19 20 17 16 16 16 16 40-44 9 13 15 16 16 16 16 16 45-49 8 11 11 15 16 17 17 16 50-54 7 11 16 16 17 17 16 16 55-59 7 9 19 18 17 16 16 16 60-64 6 8 18 19 16 16 16 16 65-69 5 7 12 15 15 16 16 16 70-74 4 6 10 10 15 16 16 16 75+ 6 10 21 43 47 49 50 51 TOTAL 178 214 259 284 291 294 296 297 BIRTH RATE 20.3 14.9 12.7 12.0 11.8 11.7 11.7 DEATH RATE 6.4 6.4 8.8 11.0 11.4 11.4 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE -2.2 -.8 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.20 .76 .39 .11 .05 .03 .01 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.305 2.076 2.062 2.059 2.058 2.057 2.057 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 74.99 79.21 82.48 84.14 85.05 85.72 86.01 IMR - BOTH SEXES 14.1 7.3 3.1 2.5 2.2 2.0 2.0 96 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES GUATlEMALA ProJection (thousands) wfth NRRs1 by 2025 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL H+f 7963 9197 10622 12148 13757 15367 16959 18483 19889 21290 MALES 0-4 728 795 901 961 1004 1011 1009 982 933 944 5-9 616 706 776 883 947 992 1001 1002 977 930 10-14 511 608 698 768 877 941 987 997 999 975 15-19 427 503 600 690 760 870 935 982 993 996 20-24 352 415 491 587 678 750 860 927 975 988 25-29 284 338 400 476 574 666 739 851 919 969 30-34 236 272 326 388 465 563 656 731 843 914 35-39 183 226 262 315 378 455 554 648 724 837 40-44 150 175 217 252 306 369 447 545 640 716 45-49 131 142 167 208 244 297 359 437 535 629 50-54 117 123 134 159 199 234 286 347 424 520 55-59 96 108 114 125 148 187 221 271 331 405 60-64 71 85 96 102 113 135 171 203 251 308 65-69 48 60 72 82 88 98 118 150 180 224 70-74 32 37 46 56 65 70 79 96 124 150 75+ 34 36 41 50 62 75 86 99 119 153 TOTAL 4015 4629 5340 6102 6907 7712 8508 9267 9965 10657 FEMALES 0-4 705 769 870 927 967 973 970 942 894 903 5-9 598 686 752 855 916 958 965 964 939 892 10-14 498 590 679 745 849 911 954 962 962 938 15-19 416 490 583 672 739 84 906 950 960 961 20-24 346 406 479 572 663 731 838 901 947 958 25-29 282 334 393 467 562 654 n4 832 897 944 30-34 236 272 324 383 459 554 647 718 827 895 35-39 184 228 264 316 376 452 548 641 714 824 40-44 150 178 222 258 310 371 446 542 636 710 45-49 129 146 173 216 252 304 365 440 536 630 50-54 116 124 140 167 210 246 298 357 433 528 55-59 96 110 118 134 160 202 238 289 348 423 60-64 72 89 103 111 126 151 192 227 277 336 65-69 49 64 79 92 100 115 139 178 212 261 70-74 33 40 53 66 78 85 100 122 159 191 75+ 37 42 50 64 83 104 123 148 184 240 TOTAL 3948 4568 5282 6045 6850 7655 8452 9216 9924 10633 BIRTH RATE 39.7 38.4 35.2 32.0 28.4 25.3 22.3 19.4 18.2 DEATH RATE 8.7 7.6 6.6 5.8 5.3 5.0 4.7 4.6 4.6 RATE OF NAT. INC. 3.10 3.08 2.86 2.62 2.31 2.03 1.76 1.48 1.36 NET HIGRATION RATE -2.2 -2.0 -1.7 -1.3 -.9 -.6 -.4 -.2 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.88 2.88 2.68 2.49 2.21 1.97 1.72 1.47 1.36 TOTAL FERTILITY 5.600 5.300 4.700 4.100 3.500) 3.007 2.584 2.220 2.090 NRR 2.392 2.318 2.104 1.8n 1.613 1.400 1.214 1.053 1.000 etO) - BOTH SEXES 62.01 63.89 65.84 67.80 69.13 70.50 71.92 73.40 74.94 o(15) - BOTH SEXES 54.26 55.02 55.85 56.85 57.65 58.48 59.34 60.25 61.19 IHR - BOTH SEXES 68.0 58.1 48.5 39.9 34.2 28.4 22.7 17.0 11.2 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0933 .0778 .0629 .0500 .0428 .0356 .0284 .0211 .0139 DEP. RATIO 95.5 93.0 89.5 84.1 78.2 70.1 62.6 56.1 50.6 46.9 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 97 Summry Projection for 25-Year Periods GUATEMMA AGE GROUJP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 7963 12148 19889 26488 30413 31605 32221 32507 MALES 0-4 728 961 933 968 976 974 973 972 5-9 616 883 977 982 978 973 971 971 10-14 511 768 999 989 975 970 971 971 15-19 427 690 993 974 966 968 970 971 20-24 352 587 975 934 957 967 969 970 25-29 284 476 919 918 959 968 968 967 30-34 236 388 843 958 969 968 964 964 35-39 183 315 724 975 972 961 959 960 40-44 150 252 , 640 964 953 948 953 957 45-49 131 208 535 938 907 935 948 952 50-54 117 159 424 870 880 927 941 943 55-59 96 125 331 774 899 921 927 927 60-64 71 102 251 633 884 900 900 904 65-69 48 82 180 517 827 846 858 870 70-74 32 56 124 379 736 752 799 821 75+ 34 50 119 429 1201 1600 1802 1887 TOTAL 4015 6102 9965 13201 15037 15578 15873 16006 FEMALES 0-4 705 927 894 924 930 929 927 927 5-9 598 855 939 938 932 928 926 926 10-14 498 745 962 946 929 925 926 926 15-19 416 672 960 934 921 923 926 926 20-24 346 572 947 899 915 924 926 926 25-29 282 467 897 888 920 927 927 926 30-34 236 383 827 931 933 929 926 925 35-39 184 316 714 952 940 925 923 923 40-44 150 258 636 946 926 916 919 922 45-49 129 216 536 928 887 907 918 922 50-54 116 167 433 871 870 908 919 920 55-59 96 134 348 791 905 915 917 916 60-64 72 111 277 666 911 913 907 908 65-69 49 92 212 572 885 886 8a8 898 70-74 33 66 159 451 835 829 866 885 75+ 37 64 184 648 1735 2342 2606 2725 TOTAL 3948 6045 9924 13286 15375 16028 16347 16501 BIRTH RATE 37.6 24.9 16.5 13.3 12.2 11.9 11.8 DEATH RATE 7.5 5.0 5.2 7.8 10.7 11.1 11.4 NET MIGRATION RATE -2.0 -.6 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.82 1.97 1.15 .55 .15 .08 .04 TOTAL FERTILITY 5.149 2.962 2.082 2.068 2.063 2.059 2.L8 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 64.10 70.82 76.98 80.87 83.06 84.74 85.38 IiR - BOTH SEXES 57.7 28.7 8.4 3.8 2.9 2.3 2.1 98 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES GUYANA Projectlor (thousands) with NRR=1 by 2000 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL H+F 790 798 818 837 863 901 951 1000 1045 1085 MALES 0-4 51 51 45 40 38 39 40 41 40 39 5-9 45 47 48 43 38 37 39 40 41 40 10-14 50 43 45 46 42 38 37 38 40 40 15-19 50 47 41 44 45 41 37 37 38 40 20-24 45 45 44 38 42 44 41 37 36 38 25-29 35 39 41 40 36 40 44 41 37 36 30-34 26 30 35 38 38 34 40 43 40 37 35-39 20 22 27 32 36 37 34 40 43 40 40-44 15 17 20 25 31 35 37 33 39 42 45-49 13 13 15 18 23 30 34 36 33 38 50-54 11 12 12 14 17 22 29 33 35 32 55-59 10 10 11 11 13 16 21 27 31 33 60-64 8 9 9 9 10 12 15 19 25 29 65-69 5 7 7 7 8 8 10 13 17 23 70-74 4 4 5 6 6 6 7 8 11 14 75+ 4 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 13 TOTAL 395 398 408 417 429 447 472 495 517 536 FEMALES 0-4 48 49 44 39 37 38 39 39 39 38 5-9 44 44 47 42 37 36 38 39 39 39 10-14 49 42 42 45 41 37 36 37 39 39 15-19 48 46 39 41 44 40 37 36 37 39 20-24 45 43 42 37 39 43 40 37 36 37 25-29 37 39 38 39 34 38 43 40 36 36 30-34 27 31 35 35 37 33 37 43 40 36 35-39 21 23 28 33 34 36 33 37 42 40 40-44 16 18 21 27 32 33 35 33 37 42 45-49 13 14 17 20 26 31 32 35 32 37 50-54 12 12 14 17 20 26 30 32 34 32 55-59 10 11 11 13 16 19 25 30 31 34 60-64 8 9 10 11 12 15 18 24 28 30 65-69 6 7 8 9 9 11 14 17 22 27 70-74 5 5 6 7 8 8 10 12 15 20 75+ 6 6 7 7 9 11 12 15 19 24 TOTAL 395 400 410 420 434 454 480 505 528 549 BIRTH RATE 27.9 24.0 20.2 18.5 18.0 17.7 16.8 15.6 14.6 DEATH RATE 8.2 7.6 7.1 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.9 7.1 RATE OF NAT. INC. 1.97 1.64 1.31 1.17 1.13 1.09 1.00 .88 .75 NET MIGRATION RATE -17.6 -11.5 -8.5 -5.5 -2.7 -.0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .21 .49 .46 .61 .86 1.08 1.00 .87 .75 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.063 2.643 2.280 2.149 2,134 2.119 2.104 2.089 2.074 NRR 1.353 1.189 1.045 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 63.19 64.84 66.60 68.42 69.69 71.02 72.41 73.86 75.38 e(15) - BOTH SEXES 53.99 54.69 55.57 56.63 57.52 58.45 59.43 60.46 61.55 IMR - BOTH SEXES 55.9 47.8 39.7 32.5 28.0 23.6 19.2 14.7 10.3 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0745 .0617 .0497 .0396 .0343 .0289 .0236 .0182 .0128 DEP. RATIO 67.8 63.1 60.6 54.8 47.8 44.0 43.7 44.7 46.5 48.8 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 99 Summary Projection for 25-Year Periods GUYANA AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 790 837 1045 1200 1262 1298 1321 1332 MALES 0-4 51 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 5-9 45 43 41 40 40 40 40 40 10-14 50 46 40 39 39 39 40 40 15-19 50 44 38 39 39 40 40 40 20-24 45 38 36 39 39 40 39 39 25-29 35 40 37 39 40 39 39 39 30-34 26 38 40 40 39 39 39 39 35-39 20 32 43 39 39 39 39 39 40-44 15 25 39 37 38 39 39 39 45-49 13 18 33 35 38 39 39 39 50-54 11 14 35 35 38 38 38 38 55-59 10 11 31 37 37 37 38 38 60-64 8 9 25 38 36 36 36 37 65-69 5 7 17 32 32 34 35 36 70-74 4 6 11 23 28 31 33 34 75+ 4 5 10 38 5r 67 73 77 TOTAL 395 417 517 590 617 635 646 652 FEMALES 0-4 48 39 39 39 38 38 38 38 5-9 44 42 39 38 38 38 38 38 10-14 49 45 39 38 38 38 38 38 15-19 48 41 37 38 38 38 38 38 20-24 45 37 36 38 38 38 38 38 25-29 37 39 36 38 38 38 38 38 30-34 27 35 40 39 38 38 38 38 35-39 21 33 42 39 38 38 38 38 40-44 16 27 37 37 37 38 38 38 45-49 13 20 32 35 37 38 38 38 50-54 12 17 34 35 38 38 38 38 55-59 10 13 31 38 38 38 38 38 60-64 8 11 28 40 37 37 37 37 65-69 6 9 22 33 35 36 37 37 70-74 5 7 15 27 32 35 36 37 75+ 6 7 19 58 86 99 108 112 TOTAL 395 420 528 611 645 662 674 680 BIRTH RATE 24.0 17.3 13.8 12.6 12.2 11.9 11.8 DEATH RATE 7.6 6.8 8.3 10.6 11.1 11.2 11.4 NET MIGRATION RATE -12.5 -1.5 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .39 .89 .56 .20 .11 .07 .03 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.659 2.119 2.067 2.055 2.050 2.047 2.046 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 64.90 71.21 77.31 81.10 83.22 84.82 85.44 IMR - BOTH SEXES 48.6 23.5 7.8 3.7 2.8 2.3 2.1 100 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES HAMII Projection (thousands) with NRR=I by 2035 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 5889 6472 7156 7830 8482 9164 9876 10603 11337 12053 MALES 0-4 453 497 558 576 590 598 608 612 612 600 5-9 389 431 474 533 554 570 581 593 600 602 10-14 358 381 422 464 523 545 562 574 588 595 15-19 315 349 372 411 453 513 536 554 567 582 20-24 269 301 335 356 395 437 498 523 543 558 25-29 214 252 283 316 337 377 421 483 510 532 30-34 176 199 236 267 28 321 362 407 470 499 35-39 145 164 186 222 250 282 306 348 394 458 40-44 123 135 153 174 207 236 268 293 335 382 45-49 105 114 125 141 160 193 222 254 280 322 50-54 90 97 105 115 129 147 179 207 239 265 55-59 74 81 87 94 102 115 133 163 190 221 60-64 60 64 70 75 80 87 100 117 144 170 65-69 47 49 52 57 59 64 71 83 98 122 70-74 33 35 36 38 41 44 48 54 64 76 75+ 34 35 36 37 38 41 45 51 59 71 TOTAL 2888 3184 3529 3876 4216 4571 4940 5315 5692 6057 FEMALES 0-4 443 482 540 558 571 578 587 590 589 57? 5-9 385 421 460 518 538 553 562 573 579 580 10-14 355 376 412 451 508 528 544 555 568 574 15-19 313 345 367 401 438 495 518 535 547 562 20-24 275 299 331 350 383 421 480 504 524 539 25-29 230 259 282 312 330 364 404 465 492 515 30-34 195 216 245 266 294 313 349 391 452 482 35-39 161 184 205 231 250 279 300 337 379 441 40-44 137 152 175 194 218 237 266 288 326 369 45-49 118 130 145 165 182 206 226 255 277 315 50-54 101 111 122 136 154 170 194 214 243 266 55-59 83 93 103 112 123 141 157 180 201 230 60-64 69 74 83 91 98 109 126 142 165 185 65-69 55 58 63 70 75 82 93 108 124 146 70-74 39 43 45 48 53 58 64 74 88 103 75+ 42 44 48 51 52 58 66 77 91 112 TOTAL 3001 3288 3627 3955 4266 4593 4936 5288 5645 5996 BIRTH RATE 36.0 36.4 33.9 31.5 29.2 27.2 25.2 23.3 21.2 DEATH RATE 13.5 13.0 12.9 13.2 12.1 11.1 10.3 9.6 9.0 RATE OF NAT. INC. 2.25 2.33 2.10 1.82 1.71 1.61 1.49 1.37 1.23 NET MIGRATION RATE -3.6 -3.2 -2.9 -2.2 -1.7 -1.2 -.7 -.3 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.89 2.01 1.80 1.60 1.55 1.50 1.42 1.34 1.22 TOTAL FERTILITY 4.990 4.678 4.365 4.053 3.713 3.373 3.033 2.766 2.522 NRR 1.899 1.831 1.710 1.580 1.479 1.373 1.262 1.174 1.093 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 54.00 54.61 54.23 53.23 54.96 56.78 58.70 60.73 62.87 eWiS) - BOTH SEXES 49.07 49.23 48.13 46.23 47.42 48.67 49.99 51.39 52.86 INR - BOTH SEXES 97.3 93.0 86.9 79.0 72.1 65.1 58.1 51.1 44.1 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .1395 .1327 .1231 .1107 .1010 .0912 .0814 .0715 .0617 DEP. RATIO 80.9 78.8 78.5 76.8 73.8 68.3 63.4 59.2 55.8 52.7 COUNlRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 101 Suary Projection for 25-Year Periods HAITI AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 5889 7830 11337 14697 17267 18519 19118 19402 MALES 0-4 453 576 612 592 587 586 586 586 5-9 389 533 600 587 584 585 585 585 10-14 358 464 588 576 582 584 585 585 15-19 315 411 567 568 581 585 585 585 20-24 269 356 543 582 581 584 584 584 25-29 214 316 510 584 583 581 581 582 30-34 176 267 470 572 576 577 579 580 35-39 145 222 394 554 563 572 577 578 40-44 123 174 335 526 551 569 574 576 45-49 105 141 280 494 560 564 571 572 50-54 90 115 239 451 552 559 562 565 55-59 74 94 190 397 525 541 549 554 60-64 60 75 144 310 483 511 531 540 65-69 47 57 98 235 423 474 507 519 70-74 33 38 64 164 349 442 472 487 75+ 34 37 59 178 488 829 1001 1080 TOTAL 2888 3876 5692 7368 8568 9141 9428 9560 FEMALES 0-4 443 558 589 566 560 558 558 558 5-9 385 518 579 562 558 558 558 558 10-14 355 451 568 553 556 558 558 558 15-19 313 401 547 546 556 558 558 558 20-24 275 350 524 562 558 559 558 558 25-29 230 312 492 566 562 558 557 557 30-34 195 266 452 555 558 555 556 557 35-39 161 231 379 538 547 552 555 556 D-44 137 194 326 513 539 551 555 556 45-49 118 165 277 484 551 550 554 554 50-54 101 136 243 446 549 551 551 552 55-59 83 112 201 400 530 542 545 548 60-64 69 91 165 322 502 524 537 544 65-69 55 70 124 258 459 504 529 538 70-74 39 48 88 196 405 496 516 528 75+ 42 51 91 263 709 1203 1445 1562 TOTAL 3001 3955 5645 7329 8700 9379 9690 9842 BIRTH RATE 35.3 27.0 1 .3 14.3 12.8 12.2 11.9 DEATH RATE 13.1 11.1 8.0 8.0 10.0 10.9 11.3 NET MIGRATION RATE -3.2 -1.2 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROUTH RATE 1.90 1.48 1.04 .64 .28 .13 .06 TOTAL FERTILITY 4.651 3.327 2.262 2.082 2.070 2.061 2.059 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 54.29 57.16 67.95 77.07 80.68 83.56 84.63 IMR - BOTH SEXES 92.2 65.1 30.3 7.9 4.7 2.6 2.3 102 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES HONDURAS Projectfon (thousands) with NRR=1 by 2025 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL H+F 4383 5105 5921 6802 7722 8633 9530 10385 11172 11945 MALES 0-4 398 442 488 526 548 551 551 539 516 522 5-9 334 390 435 482 521 544 547 548 537 514 10-14 302 331 387 433 480 519 542 545 547 536 15-19 246 299 328 385 430 477 516 540 544 546 20-24 195 241 295 324 381 426 474 513 537 541 25-29 154 190 237 m 320 377 422 470 509 534 30-34 123 149 186 233 286 316 373 419 466 506 35-39 100 119 146 183 229 282 313 370 416 463 40-44 82 97 116 143 179 226 279 309 365 412 45-49 69 79 94 113 140 175 221 273 304 360 50-54 57 66 75 90 109 135 170 215 266 296 55-59 47 53 61 71 85 103 128 162 205 255 60-64 37 42 48 56 64 77 95 118 150 192 65-69 29 31 36 41 48 56 68 84 106 135 70-74 21 22 25 28 33 39 46 56 70 89 75+ 20 23 25 28 33 40 48 58 72 90 TOTAL 2212 2574 2982 3425 3886 4343 4792 5219 5609 5991 FEMALES 0-4 384 427 471 507 527 529 529 516 493 498 5-9 322 377 421 466 503 524 526 527 515 492 10-14 292 319 375 419 464 501 523 525 526 514 15-19 239 289 317 373 418 463 500 522 524 525 20-24 193 235 286 315 371 416 461 498 520 523 25-29 153 189 232 283 312 368 413 459 496 519 30-34 123 149 186 229 281 310 366 411 457 495 35-39 99 120 147 184 227 278 307 364 409 455 40-44 82 97 118 145 181 224 276 305 361 407 45-49 69 80 95 116 143 179 222 273 302 358 50-54 57 67 78 92 113 140 175 218 268 297 55-59 47 54 64 75 89 110 136 171 212 262 60-64 38 44 51 60 71 85 105 130 164 205 65-69 30 34 39 46 55 65 78 98 122 155 70-74 21 25 28 33 39 47 57 69 87 111 75+ 22 25 30 35 42 53 66 83 105 136 TOTAL 2171 2532 2939 3378 3836 4291 4738 5167 5563 5954 BIRTH RATE 39.7 37.3 34.5 31.1 27.5 24.6 21.8 19.1 17.8 DEATH RATE 7.9 6.9 6.1 5.3 4.9 4.6 4.4 4.4 4.5 RATE OF NAT. INC. 3.19 3.04 2.84 2.58 2.26 2.00 1.73 1.47 1.34 NET NIGRATION RATE -1.4 -.7 -.6 -.5 -.3 -.2 -.1 -.1 .0 GROWTH RATE 3.05 2.96 2.78 2.54 2.23 1.98 1.72 1.46 1.34 TOTAL FERTILITY 5.550 4.997 4.444 3.891 3.338 2.907 2.532 2.206 2.087 NRR 2.422 2.217 2.005 1.781 1.543 1.356 1.192 1.047 1.000 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 63.96 65.47 67.09 68.80 70.08 71.40 72.78 74.21 75.70 eWtS) - BOTH SEXES 55.48 56.15 56.95 57.89 58.59 59.32 60.09 60.90 61.75 INR - BOTH SEXES 69.0 61.1 52.2 43.5 36.6 29.8 22.9 16.1 9.2 qC5) - BOTH SEXES .0849 .0734 .0621 .0514 .0435 .0355 .0275 .0195 .0115 DEP. RATIO 98.4 92.0 87.3 81.0 74.4 67.1 60.2 54.2 49.4 46.5 COUNTRIES, ECONOSMIES, AND TERRITORIES 103 Summary Projection for 25-Year Periods HONDURAS AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 4383 6802 11172 14751 16802 17415 17724 17871 MALES 0-4 398 526 516 533 536 535 534 534 5-9 334 482 537 539 537 534 534 534 10-14 302 433 547 543 535 533 533 534 15-19 246 385 544 536 531 532 533 533 20-24 195 324 537 517 527 531 533 533 25-29 154 290 509 508 528 532 532 531 30-34 123 233 466 528 533 532 530 529 35-39 100 183 416 535 534 528 527 528 40-44 82 143 365 528 525 522 524 526 45-49 69 113 304 517 503 515 521 523 50-54 57 90 266 483 488 511 517 518 55-59 47 71 205 430 496 507 509 510 60-64 37 56 150 366 487 495 495 497 65-69 29 41 106 299 457 468 473 478 70-74 21 28 70 220 411 419 441 452 75+ 20 28 72 279 694 899 999 1042 TOTAL 2212 3425 5609 7362 8321 8593 8735 8801 FEMALES 0-4 384 507 493 508 511 510 509 509 5-9 322 466 515 514 512 510 509 509 10-14 292 419 526 518 510 508 509 509 15-19 239 373 524 513 507 507 509 509 20-24 193 315 520 496 504 508 509 509 25-29 153 283 496 490 506 509 509 509 30-34 123 229 457 511 512 510 508 508 35-39 99 184 409 521 515 508 507 507 40-44 82 145 361 517 508 503 505 507 45-49 69 116 302 510 490 499 505 506 50-54 57 92 268 482 481 499 505 505 55-59 47 75 212 438 497 502 503 503 60-64 38 60 164 383 499 501 498 499 65-69 30 46 122 326 485 487 489 494 70-74 21 33 87 256 461 459 477 487 75+ 22 35 105 405 985 1300 1438 1501 TOTAL 2171 3378 5563 7389 841 8822 8989 9070 BIRTH RATE 36.9 24.2 16.2 13.2 12.2 11.9 11.8 DEATH RATE 6.9 4.7 5.2 8.0 10.8 11.2 11.4 NET MIGRATION RATE -.9 -.2 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROUTH RATE 2.93 1.98 1.11 .52 .14 .07 .03 TOTAL FERTILITY 4.929 2.874 2.080 2.067 2.062 2.059 2.058 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 65.66 71.72 77.62 81.25 83.29 84.84 85.45 IMR - BOTH SEXES 60.3 30.1 7.1 3.6 2.8 2.2 2.1 104 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES JAMAICA Projection (thousands) with NRRw1 by 2000 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 2311 2420 2520 2591 2667 2756 2860 2974 3095 3223 MALES 0-4 139 149 140 124 116 116 117 116 113 112 5-9 143 133 143 134 119 112 113 115 115 113 10-14 148 139 129 139 130 116 110 112 114 115 15-19 140 143 134 124 135 127 114 109 111 114 20-24 119 131 135 126 118 130 123 111 107 111 25-29 91 107 120 125 118 111 124 120 109 107 30-34 65 81 98 111 117 112 106 121 118 109 35-39 51 57 74 91 105 112 108 103 119 117 40-44 44 46 52 69 86 101 109 106 102 118 45-49 39 40 42 49 65 83 99 107 104 101 50-54 35 36 38 40 46 63 81 96 105 102 55-59 30 33 34 36 38 44 61 78 93 102 60-64 26 27 30 32 33 35 42 58 75 90 65-69 23 23 24 27 29 30 32 39 54 70 70-74 22 19 19 20 23 25 26 29 35 49 75+ 30 30 28 28 30 34 38 43 48 57 TOTAL 1145 1194 1239 1273 1309 1353 1404 1461 1521 1585 FEMALES 0-4 137 145 136 120 113 113 113 112 110 108 5-9 136 131 139 130 116 109 110 111 111 110 10-14 143 132 127 135 127 113 107 108 110 111 15-19 141 138 127 122 131 124 111 106 108 110 20-24 122 132 130 119 115 125 119 108 104 107 25-29 95 112 123 120 110 108 120 116 106 104 30-34 69 87 105 115 114 105 104 118 114 106 35-39 54 64 82 99 111 110 102 102 116 114 40-44 45 51 60 79 96 108 108 101 101 116 45-49 40 43 49 58 77 94 107 107 100 101 50-54 37 38 42 47 57 75 93 105 106 99 55-59 33 36 t' 40 46 56 74 91 103 104 60-64 29 31 34 36 39 44 54 72 89 101 65-69 25 27 29 32 33 37 42 52 69 87 70-74 23 22 23 26 29 31 34 39 49 66 75+ 39 37 37 39 44 51 57 65 77 94 TOTAL 1166 1225 1280 1318 1357 1403 1455 1513 1574 1638 BIRTH RATE 25.9 23.2 19.8 18.0 17.3 16.7 15.9 14.9 14.0 DEATH RATE 6.9 6.2 5.6 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.7 5.9 RATE OF NAT. INC. 1.89 1.70 1.42 1.27 1.20 1.13 1.03 .92 .81 NET MIGRATION RATE -9.7 -8.9 -8.6 -7.0 -5.4 -3.9 -2.5 -1.2 .0 GROWTH RATE .92 .81 .56 .57 .66 .74 .78 .80 .81 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.000 2.571 2.204 2.072 2.068 2.064 2.060 2.056 2.052 NRR 1.435 1.234 1.061 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 etO) - BOTH SEXES 72.56 73.59 74.71 75.88 76.73 77.63 78.56 79.53 80.55 etIS) - BOTH SEXES 59.32 60.1? 61.09 62.07 62.79 63.55 64.34 65.17 66.04 INR - BOTH SEXES 17.0 14.9 12.6 10.5 9.2 7.9 6.6 5.2 3.9 qtS) - BOTH SEXES .0205 .0180 .0155 .0131 .0115 .0100 .008 .0069 .0054 DEP. RATIO 77.2 68.6 62.9 58.2 51.7 47.4 46.0 46.2 48.0 51.1 COUNTRlES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRrIORIES 105 Summary ProJection for 25-Year Periods JAMACA AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 2311 2591 3095 3581 3709 3763 3796 3813 MALES 0-4 139 124 113 113 113 112 112 112 5-9 143 134 115 113 112 112 112 112 10-14 148 139 114 112 112 112 112 112 15-19 140 124 111 111 112 112 112 112 20-24 119 126 107 111 112 112 112 112 25-29 91 125 109 112 112 112 112 112 30-34 65 111 118 113 112 111 111 111 35-39 51 91 119 112 1I1 111 111 111 40-44 44 69 102 109 109 110 111 111 45-49 39 49 104 104 109 110 110 110 50-54 35 40 105 105 109 109 109 109 55-59 30 36 93 111 108 107 107 107 60-64 26 32 75 109 104 104 105 105 65-69 23 27 54 89 97 99 101 102 70-74 22 20 35 84 88 93 96 96 75+ 30 28 48 152 199 212 220 225 TOTAL 1145 1273 1521 1761 1818 1840 1855 1862 FEMALES 0-4 137 120 110 110 109 109 109 109 5-9 136 130 111 109 109 109 109 109 10-14 143 135 110 109 109 109 109 109 15-19 141 122 108 108 109 109 109 109 20-24 122 119 104 108 109 109 109 109 25-29 95 120 106 109 109 109 109 109 30-34 69 115 114 111 109 109 109 109 35-Y9 54 99 116 110 108 108 109 109 40 44 45 79 101 107 107 108 109 109 45-49 40 58 100 103 107 108 108 108 50-54 37 47 106 104 108 108 108 108 55-59 33 40 103 111 109 108 107 108 60-64 29 36 89 112 107 106 107 107 65-69 25 32 69 95 102 104 106 106 70-74 23 26 49 91 96 102 104 105 75+ 39 39 77 224 284 308 322 329 TOTAL 1166 1318 1574 1820 1891 1922 1942 1951 BIRTH RATE 22.9 16.5 13.2 12.1 11.9 11.7 11.7 DEATH RATE 6.2 5.5 7.4 10.7 11.3 11.4 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE -9.1 -3.9 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .76 .71 .58 .14 .06 .04 .02 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.574 2.064 2.049 2.044 2.042 2.041 2.040 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 73.65 77.73 81.61 83.63 84.75 85.59 85.93 INR - BOTH SEXES 14.9 7.9 3.5 2.6 2.3 2.0 2.0 106 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES MARTINIQUE Projection (thousands) with NRRa1 by 1990 AGE BROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 341 360 380 399 414 427 440 453 466 479 MALES 0-4 15 17 18 17 15 15 15 16 16 16 5-9 11 15 17 18 17 15 15 15 16 16 10-14 15 11 15 17 18 17 15 15 15 16 15-19 20 15 11 15 16 17 16 15 14 15 20-24 20 20 15 11 15 16 17 16 15 14 25-29 15 20 20 15 11 15 16 17 16 15 30-34 10 15 20 20 14 10 14 16 17 16 35-39 9 10 15 20 19 14 10 14 16 17 40-44 8 9 10 15 19 19 14 10 14 16 45-49 7 8 9 10 14 19 19 14 10 14 50-54 7 7 8 9 9 14 19 19 14 10 55-59 6 7 7 7 8 9 14 18 18 13 60-64 6 6 6 6 7 8 9 13 17 17 65-69 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 8 12 16 70-74 4 4 5 4 5 5 6 7 7 11 75+ 4 5 6 7 7 8 8 10 11 13 TOTAL 165 174 185 194 201 208 214 221 228 234 FEMALES 0-4 14 16 17 16 15 14 14 15 15 15 5-9 11 14 16 17 16 14 14 14 15 15 10-14 15 11 14 16 17 16 14 14 14 15 15-19 20 15 11 14 16 17 16 14 14 14 20-24 21 19 15 11 14 16 17 16 14 14 25-29 14 20 19 15 11 14 15 16 15 14 30-34 11 14 20 19 15 11 14 15 16 15 35-39 10 11 14 20 19 15 10 13 15 16 40-44 9 10 11 14 20 19 15 10 13 15 45-49 8 9 10 11 14 20 19 14 10 13 50-54 8 8 9 10 11 14 20 18 14 10 55-59 7 8 8 9 10 11 14 19 18 14 60-64 7 7 8 8 9 10 11 13 19 18 65-69 6 7 7 8 8 8 9 10 13 19 70-74 4 6 6 6 7 7 8 9 10 13 75+ 8 8 10 12 14 16 17 19 21 24 TOTAL 176 185 196 205 213 219 226 232 239 245 BIRTH RATE 19.0 19.1 17.0 14.8 13.8 13.8 13.9 13.6 12.9 DEATH RATE 7.2 6.7 6.5 6.4 6.7 6.8 7.1 7.3 7.6 RATE OF NAT. INC. 1.18 1.23 1.05 .84 .72 .69 .68 .63 .53 NET MIGRATION RATE -1.1 -1.1 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -.9 -.9 -.6 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.07 1.12 .95 .74 .62 .60 .59 .56 .53 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.140 2.084 2.079 2.075 2.073 2.070 2.068 2.065 2.062 NRR 1.023 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 75.28 76.64 77.87 79.02 79.66 80.32 81.00 81.69 82.41 e05) - BOTH SEXES 61.49 62.67 63.76 64.81 65.37 65.95 66.54 67.16 67.80 IMR - BOTH SEXES 11.0 9.0 7.5 6.4 5.7 5.1 4.4 3.7 3.1 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0136 .0113 .0096 .0083 .0075 .0067 .0059 .0051 .0043 DEP. RATIO 50.7 50.0 55.0 55.4 52.7 49.4 48.4 49.8 55.0 64.3 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 107 Summary Projection for 25-Year Periods M RTINIQUE AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 341 399 466 500 509 513 516 517 MALES 0-4 15 17 16 15 15 15 15 15 5-9 11 18 16 15 15 15 15 15 10-14 15 17 15 15 15 15 15 15 15-19 20 15 14 15 15 15 15 15 20-24 20 11 15 15 15 15 15 15 25-29 15 15 16 16 15 15 15 15 30-34 10 20 17 15 15 15 15 15 35-39 9 20 16 15 15 15 15 15 40-4t 8 15 , 14 14 15 15 15 15 45-49 7 10 10 14 15 15 15 15 50-54 7 9 14 15 15 15 15 15 55-59 6 7 18 16 15 15 15 15 60-64 6 6 17 14 14 14 14 14 65-69 5 6 12 12 13 14 14 14 70-74 4 4 7 8 12 13 13 13 75+ 4 7 11 27 29 29 30 31 TOTAL 165 194 228 244 250 252 254 254 FEMALES 0-4 14 16 15 15 15 15 15 15 5-9 11 17 15 15 15 15 15 15 10-14 15 16 14 14 15 15 15 15 15-19 20 14 14 14 15 15 15 15 20-24 21 11 14 15 15 15 15 15 25-29 14 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 30-34 11 19 16 15 15 15 15 15 35-39 10 20 15 14 14 15 15 15 40-44 9 14 13 14 14 15 15 15 45-49 8 11 10 14 15 15 15 15 50-54 8 10 14 15 15 15 15 15 55-59 7 9 18 16 15 14 14 14 60-64 7 8 19 15 14 14 14 14 65-69 6 8 13 13 13 14 14 14 70-74 4 6 10 10 13 14 14 14 75+ 8 12 21 43 43 43 44 45 TOTAL 176 205 239 256 259 261 262 263 BIRTH RATE 18.3 14.0 12.3 11.9 11.8 11.7 11.6 DEATH RATE 6.8 6.9 9.5 11.2 11.5 11.5 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE -1.1 -.9 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.05 .62 .28 .p7 .03 .02 .01 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.084 2.070 2.061 2.059 2.058 2.057 2.057 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 76.64 80.38 83.14 84.53 85.29 85.85 86.08 INR - BOTH SEXES 9.2 5.0 2.8 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.9 108 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRrIORIES MEXICO * Projection (thousands) with NRRu1 by 2005 AGE GROUP 1985 l990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 78524 86154 94820 103273 110986 118576 126470 134235 141586 148311 MALES 0-4 5637 5681 5867 5710 5301 5263 5464 5586 5582 5495 5-9 5261 5503 5593 5797 5657 5266 5245 544' 5573 5573 10-14 5466 5184 5454 5553 5766 5636 5256 5237 5442 5569 15-19 4689 5376 5125 5405 5514 5737 5619 5242 5225 5432 20-24 3862 4515 5261 5037 5336 5465 5708 5592 5220 5204 25-29 3126 3641 4374 5146 4952 5276 5431 5675 5562 5194 30-34 2502 2933 3518 4273 5066 4897 5242 5399 5643 5533 35-39 1882 2353 2835 3436 4205 5009 4861 5206 5365 5611 40-44 1633 1770 2273 2765 3373 4147 4958 4814 5160 5321 45-49 1318 1545 1704 2207 2700 3307 4079 4882 4746 5093 50-54 1086 1244 1476 1636 2131 2617 3216 3975 4767 4644 55-59 875 1008 1164 1388 1547 2026 2499 3084 3826 4606 60-64 677 7m8 914 1061 1274 1429 1884 2339 2904 3626 65-69 468 580 680 795 932 1130 1279 1701 2130 2666 70-74 363 368 461 549 652 775 950 1088 1463 1854 75+ 442 437 454 545 677 833 1023 1276 1546 2014 TOTAL 39287 42927 47155 51302 55082 58815 62715 66544 70155 73433 FEMALES 0-4 5416 5464 5637 5478 5080 5040 5228 5339 5331 5243 5-9 5067 5293 5386 5575 5433 5052 5027 5217 5331 5325 10-14 5283 4997 5250 5352 5550 5418 5046 5022 5213 5328 15-19 4544 5210 4953 5214 5325 5534 5411 5041 5018 5210 20-24 3798 4417 5134 4892 5170 5299 5524 5403 5034 5011 25-29 3123 3651 4330 5063 4842 5140 5288 5513 5393 5025 30-34 2535 3007 3580 4271 5018 4814 5126 5275 5500 5381 35-39 1941 2450 2953 3534 4233 4989 4797 5109 5259 5485 40-44 1707 1884 2409 2915 3500 4203 4962 4773 5086 5238 45-49 1402 1665 l850 2374 2880 3465 4168 4924 4740 5054 50-54 1163 1365 1629 1815 2335 2838 3420 4117 4869 4692 55-59 942 1124 1324 1586 1772 2284 2782 3357 4049 4796 60-64 762 894 1073 1270 1528 1713 2214 2704 3273 3958 65-69 545 700 828 1002 1196 1446 1629 2116 2596 3157 70-74 442 471 612 735 902 1086 1325 1506 1973 244l 75+ 566 637 716 895 1137 1440 1809 2274 2767 3534 TOTAL 39237 43227 47665 51971 55904 59761 63755 67690 71432 74879 BIRTH RATE 28.7 26.6 23.5 20.0 18.4 17.8 17.0 16.0 14.9 DEATH RATE 5.7 5.2 4.9 4.6 4.7 4.9 5.1 5.3 5.6 RATE OF NAT. INC. 2.29 2.14 1.86 1.54 1.37 1.29 1.19 1.07 .93 NET MIGRATIOM RATE -4.4 -2.2 -1.5 -.9 -.4 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.85 1.92 1.71 1.44 1.32 1.29 1.19 1.07 .93 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.580 3.066 2.627 2.250 2.115 2.104 2.093 2.083 2.072 NRR 1.642 1.421 1.227 1.059 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 68.89 70.19 71.58 73.01 74.07 75.15 76.28 77.45 78.67 e(15) - BOTH SEXES 57.95 58.70 59.56 60.53 61.22 61.94 62.70 63.48 64.31 IMR - BOTH SEXES 43.0 36.6 30.4 24.8 20.8 16.9 13.0 9.1 5.2 qC5) - BOTH SEXES .0509 .0434 .0362 .0298 .0252 .0206 .0161 .0115 .0069 DEP. RATIO 80.2 69.5 63.8 58.2 52.7 47.9 45.1 45.2 46.5 48.1 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 109 Stmovry Projection for 25-Year Periods MEXICO AGE GROUIP 198 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100. 2125 2150 TOTAL M4F 78524 103273 141586 168251 177370 180895 183034 184101 MALES 0-4 5637 5710 55S2 5519 54.88 5482 5483 5484 5-9 5261 5797 5573 5480 5469 5475 5480 5480 10-14 5466 5553 5442 5429 5462 WS7 5481 5480 15-19 4689 5405 5225 5414 5474 5482 5479 5477 20-24 3862 50371 5220 5460 5487 547S 5468 5467 25-29 3126 5146 5562 5519 5474 5451 5448 5452 30-34 2502 4273 5643 5493 5421 5419 5431 5438 35-39 1882 3436 5365 5338 5349 5395 5418 5425 40-44 1633 2765 o 5160 5095 5308 5384 5404 5406 45-49 1318 2207 4746 5054 5321 5371 5374 5372 50-54 1086 1636 4767 5310 5320 5310 5307 5314 55-59 875 1388 3826 5259 5194 51717 5205 5230 60-64 677 1061 2904 4814 4904 4987 5074 5117 65-69 468 795 2130 4359 4476 4767 4900 4948 70-74 363 549 1463 3634 4127 449? 4633 4680 75+ 442 545 1546 5737 8903 9825 10464 10813 TOTAL 3928 51302 70155 82913 87178 88975 90048 90581 FEMALES 0-4 5416 5478 5331 5262 5232 5226 5227 5228 5-9 5067 5575 5331 5228 5215 5221 5225 5226 10-14 528 5352 5213 5181 5210 5224 5227 5226 15-19 4544 5214 5018 5172 5224 5231 5228 5225 20-24 3798 4892 5034 5228 5246 5233 5224 5223 25-29 3123 5063 5393 5308 5248 5222 5218 5220 30-34 2535 4271 5500 5303 5211 5203 5212 5218 35-39 1941 3534 5259 5177 5156 5192 5211 5216 40-44 1707 2915 5086 4969 5137 5199 5213 5212 45-49 1402 2374 4740 496 5179 5211 5206 5202 50-54 1163 1815 4869 5283 5233 5196 5183 5185 55-59 942 1586 4049 5334 5191 5134 5145 5163 60-64 762 1270 3273 5023 5016 5044 5107 5139 65-69 545 1002 2596 4746 4742 4971 5073 5105 70-74 442 735 1973 4250 4620 4924 5018 5042 75. 566 895 2767 8910 13333 14490 15268 15692 TOTAL 39237 51971 71432 85339 90193 91920 92986 93520 BIRTH RATE 26.1 17.7 13.8 12.4 12.0 11.8 11.7 DEATH RATE 5.2 5.0 6.9 10.3 11.2 11.3 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE -2.6 - .2 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.83 1.26 .69 .21 .08 .05 .02 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.046 2.127 2.069 2.063 2.060 2.058 2.057 eCO) -BOTH SEXES 70.30 75.33 80.06 82.73 84.20 85.30 85.74 INR -BOTH SEXES 36.7 16.8 4.4 2.9 2.5 2.1 2.0 110 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRIoRiES MONTSERRAT ProJection (thousands) with NRR-1 by 2000 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 12 12 12 12 12 13 14 14 15 15 MALES 0-4 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 5-9 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 10-14 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 15-19 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 20-24 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 25-29 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 30-34 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 35-39 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 40-44 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 45-49 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 50-54 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 55-59 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 60-64 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 65-69 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 70-74 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 75+ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 TOTAL 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 FEMALES 0-4 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 5-9 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 10-14 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 15-19 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 20-24 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 25-29 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 30-34 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 35-39 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 40-44 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 45-49 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 50-54 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 55-59 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 60-64 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 65-69 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 70-74 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 75+ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 TOTAL 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 BIRTH RATE 21.5 20.9 19.3 17.5 16.2 15.6 15.2 14.7 14.1 DEATH RATE 11.3 10.3 9.3 7.9 7.3 6.7 6.4 6.4 6.8 RATE OF NAT. INC. 1.03 1.06 1.00 .96 .89 .88 .88 .83 .73 NET MIGRATION RATE -10.1 -10.1 -6.7 -3.3 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .02 .05 .33 .63 .89 .88 .88 .83 .73 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.638 2.402 2.187 2.106 2.099 2.091 2.084 2.076 2.069 NRR 1.223 1.126 1.032 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 69.80 71.67 73.41 74.98 75.90 76.86 77.84 78.87 79.92 e(15) - BOTH SEXES 58.00 59.43 60.76 61.95 62.60 63.27 63.97 64.69 65.45 IMR - BOTH SEXES 32.0 27.5 22.9 18.7 15.8 12.9 10.0 7.1 4.2 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0390 .0330 .0274 .0225 .0192 .0158 .0125 .0091 .0058 DEP. RATIO 76.3 67.3 59.9 60.4 53.6 48.0 45.6 46.3 48.6 53.2 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRrIORIES 111 Summary Projection for 25-Year Periods MONTSERRAT AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 12 12 15 17 17 18 18 18 MALES 0-4 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 5-9 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 10-14 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 15-19 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 20-24 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 25-29 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 30-34 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 35-39 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 40-44 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 45-49 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 50-54 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 55-59 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 60-64 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 65-69 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 70-74 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 75+ 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 TOTAL 6 6 7 8 9 9 9 9 FEMALES 0-4 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 5-9 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 10-14 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 15-19 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 20-24 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 25-29 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 30-34 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 35-39 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 40-44 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 45-49 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 50-54 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 55-59 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 e-64 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 65-69 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 70-74 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 75+ 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 2 TOTAL 6 6 7 9 9 9 9 9 BIRTH RATE 20.6 15.8 13.1 12.3 12.0 11.8 11.7 DEATH RATE 10.3 6.9 8.4 10.8 11.3 11.4 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE -9.0 -.6 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .13 .82 .48 .15 .07 .04 .02 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.405 2.091 2.066 2.061 2.059 2.058 2.057 eO) BOTH SEXES 71.64 76.97 81.09 83.33 84.56 85.48 85.85 IMR - BOTH SEXES 27.6 12.9 3.7 2.7 2.3 2.1 2.0 112 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES NET IERLA DS ANTILLES Projection (thousands) wfth NRRD1 by 1990 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 182 189 201 215 228 240 250 260 269 277 MALES 0-4 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 5-9 10 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10-14 10 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 15-19 11 10 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 20-24 9 10 10 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 25-29 7 8 10 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 30-34 7 7 8 10 9 9 8 9 9 9 35-39 5 6 7 8 10 9 9 8 9 9 40-44 4 5 6 7 8 10 9 9 8 8 45-49 4 4 5 6 7 8 10 9 9 8 50-54 3 '4 4 5 6 7 8 10 9 9 55-59 3 3 4 4 5 6 6 8 10 9 60-64 2 3 3 3 4 5 6 6 7 9 65-69 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 6 6 7 70-74 1 1 2 2 3 3 3 4 5 5 75+ 2 2 2 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 TOTAL 88 92 98 105 112 118 123 128 133 137 FEMALES 0-4 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 9 9 9 5-9 9 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 9 9 10-14 10 9 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 9 15-i9 11 9 9 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 20-24 9 10 9 9 8 8 9 9 9 9 25-29 8 8 10 9 9 8 8 9 9 9 30-34 7 8 8 10 9 9 8 8 9 9 35-39 6 7 8 8 10 9 9 8 8 9 40-44 5 6 7 8 8 10 9 9 8 8 45-49 4 5 6 7 8 8 10 9 9 8 50-54 4 4 5 6 7 8 8 10 9 9 55-59 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 8 10 9 60-64 3 3 3 4 5 6 7 7 8 9 65-69 2 2 3 3 4 5 6 7 7 8 70-74 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 75+ 4 3 3 4 5 6 7 9 11 13 TOTAL 94 97 103 110 116 122 127 132 136 140 BIRTH RATE 19.1 18.9 18.0 16.5 15.1 14.2 13.8 13.5 13.2 DEATH RATE 5.5 4.8 4.6 4.7 5.1 5.6 6.1 6.6 7.3 RATE OF NAT. INC. 1.36 1.41 1.34 1.19 1.00 .87 .78 .69 .59 NET MIGRATION RATE -5.4 -2.1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .82 1.20 1.34 1.19 1.00 .87 .78 .69 .59 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.148 2.093 2.087 2.082 2.078 2.074 2.070 2.067 2.063 NRR 1.023 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 75.99 77.62 79.04 80.20 80.74 81.30 81.87 82.44 83.03 e(IS) - BOTH SEXES 62.50 63.97 65.23 66.24 66.65 67.07 67.50 67.94 68.39 IMR - BOTH SEXES 14.0 12.2 10.4 8.8 7.6 6.4 5.2 4.0 2.8 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0172 .0150 .0129 .0111 .0097 .0083 .0069 .0055 .0040 DEP. RATIO 57.4 50.9 48.2 49.1 49.4 49.1 49.4 51.5 54.3 58.3 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, ANn TERRrrORIES 113 Summary Projection for 25-Year Porlods NEHERILANDS ANTILLES AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL MWF 182 215 269 294 300 303 304 305 MALES 0-4 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 5-9 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10-14 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 15-19 11 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 20-24 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 25-29 7 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 30-34 7 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 35-39 5 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 40-44 4 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 45-49 4 6 9 9 9 9 9 9 50-54 3 5 9 9 9 9 9 9 55-59 3 4 10 9 9 9 9 9 60-64 2 3 7 8 8 8 8 8 65-69 1 3 6 7 8 8 8 8 70-74 1 2 5 8 8 8 8 8 75+ 2 2 7 16 17 18 18 18 TOTAL 88 105 133 146 148 149 150 150 FEMALES 0-4 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 5-9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10-14 10 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 15-19 11 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 20-24 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 25-29 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 30-34 7 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 35-39 6 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 40-44 5 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 45-49 4 7 9 9 9 9 9 9 50-54 4 6 9 9 9 9 9 9 55-59 3 5 10 9 8 8 9 9 60-64 3 4 8 8 8 8 8 9 65-69 2 3 7 7 8 8 8 8 70-74 1 3 6 8 8 8 8 8 75+ 4 4 11 22 24 25 26 26 TOTAL 94 110 136 149 152 153 154 155 BIRTH RATE 18.6 14.6 12.5 11.9 11.8 11.7 11.6 DEATH RATE 4.9 5.6 9.0 11.1 11.4 11.5 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE -2.4 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.12 .90 .35 .08 .04 .02 .01 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.105 2.074 2.062 2.059 2.058 2.057 2.057 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 77.61 81.36 83.65 84.83 85.47 85.94 86.13 INR - BOTH SEXES 12.2 6.4 2.6 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9 114 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES NICARAGUA Projectfon (thousande) with NRROI by 2025 AGE GROIJP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL N+F 3272 3853 4505 5198 5922 6643 7361 8049 8680 9298 MALES 0-4 308 348 386 410 426 429 434 425 405 408 5-9 254 301 342 381 406 422 427 432 424 404 10-14 216 251 298 339 379 404 421 426 431 424 15-19 180 214 249 296 337 377 402 419 424 430 20-24 148 177 210 246 293 335 375 400 417 423 25-29 121 145 1,?4 207 243 290 332 372 397 415 30-34 99 118 142 171 205 241 288 330 370 395 35-39 73 96 115 139 168 202 238 286 327 367 40-44 57 71 94 113 137 166 200 236 283 324 45-49 48 55 69 92 111 134 163 197 232 279 50-54 39 46 53 66 89 107 131 159 192 227 55-59 32 36 43 50 63 85 103 125 153 185 60-64 24 29 33 39 46 58 79 96 118 144 65-69 17 20 25 29 35 41 52 71 87 107 70-74 11 13 16 20 23 29 34 44 60 75 754+ 9 12 15 19 24 29 36 45 58 79 TOTAL 1635 1931 2263 2616 2984 3350 3714 4062 4379 4687 FENAL.' 0-4 297 336 373 395 410 412 416 407 386 388 5-9 246 291 331 368 392 407 410 414 406 385 10-14 210 244 289 329 367 390 406 409 414 405 15-19 178 208 242 287 327 366 389 405 409 413 20-24 149 175 205 239 284 325 364 387 404 408 25-29 123 145 171 201 236 282 323 362 386 403 30-34 102 120 142 168 199 234 280 321 360 385 35-39 75 99 117 140 166 197 232 278 320 359 40-44 59 73 97 115 138 164 195 230 276 318 45-49 49 57 71 95 113 136 162 193 228 274 50-54 42 47 55 69 93 111 133 159 189 224 55-59 35 40 45 53 66 90 107 129 155 186 60-64 27 32 37 42 50 63 85 103 125 150 65-69 19 24 29 33 38 46 58 79 96 118 70-74 13 16 20 24 28 33 40 51 71 88 75+ 13 16 19 24 31 38 47 59 77 107 TOTAL 1637 1922 2242 2582 2938 3293 3647 3988 4302 4611 BIRTH RATE 41.4 38.6 34.8 31.2 27.7 24.9 22.1 19.2 17.9 DEATH RATE 7.6 6.4 5.4 4.6 4.3 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.1 RATE OF NAT. INC. 3.38 3.22 2.95 2.67 2.34 2.08 1.80 1.52 1.38 NET MIGRATION RATE -1.1 -1.0 -.8 -.6 -.4 -.3 -.2 -.1 .0 GROUTH RATE 3.27 3.13 2.86 2.61 2.30 2.05 1.79 1.51 1.38 TOTAL FERTILITY 5.500 5.200 4.600 4.000 3.400 2.945 2.550 2.209 2.085 NRR 2.375 2.306 2.089 1.850 1.585 1.383 1.206 1.052 1.000 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 63.28 65.72 68.04 70.23 71.43 72.68 73.98 75.34 76.75 e(IS) - BOTH SEXES 54.87 55.99 57.22 58.57 59.30 60.06 60.86 61.70 62.59 INR - BOTH SEXES 62.0 50.5 40.9 33.1 27.9 22.7 17.5 12.3 7.1 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0839 .0659 .0515 .0404 .0342 .0279 .0217 .0154 .0091 DEP. RATIO 97.2 94.4 90.6 83.8 76.0 67.7 60.7 55.2 50.6 47.4 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRrIORIES 115 Sumnary Projection for 25-Year Periods NICARAGUA AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL N+F 3272 5198 8680 11553 13219 13682 13898 14000 MALES 0-4 308 410 405 418 420 419 418 418 5-9 254 381 424 423 420 418 418 418 10-14 216 339 431 426 419 417 417 417 15-19 180 296 424 420 415 416 417 417 20-24 148 246 417 405 413 416 417 417 25-29 121 207 397 400 414 417 416 416 30-34 99 171 370 418 419 416 415 414 35-39 73 139 327 423 420 414 413 413 40-44 57 113 283 413 412 408 410 412 45-49 48 92 232 404 394 404 408 410 50-54 39 66 192 379 385 401 405 406 55-59 32 50 153 343 394 399 400 399 60-64 24 39 118 292 387 391 389 389 65-69 17 29 87 237 362 369 371 375 70-74 11 20 60 175 327 332 348 355 75+ 9 19 58 224 574 731 797 824 TOTAL 1635 2616 4379 5799 6575 6769 6858 6900 FEMALES 0-4 297 395 386 398 400 399 399 398 5-9 246 368 406 403 401 399 398 398 10-14 210 329 414 406 399 398 398 398 15-19 178 287 409 400 396 397 398 398 20-24 149 239 404 386 394 397 398 398 25-29 123 201 386 384 396 399 398 398 30-34 102 168 360 403 401 399 398 397 35-39 75 140 320 410 403 397 397 397 40-44 59 115 276 403 397 394 395 397 45-49 49 95 228 396 382 391 395 396 50-54 42 69 189 376 377 391 395 396 55-59 35 53 155 346 392 394 394 394 60-64 27 42 125 300 393 392 390 390 65-69 19 33 96 250 379 381 382 386 70-74 13 24 71 194 359 358 374 381 75+ 13 24 77 299 776 1027 1130 1177 TOTAL 1637 2582 4302 5754 6644 6913 7040 7100 BIRTH RATE 37.9 24.4 16.2 13.1 12.1 11.9 11.7 DEATH RATE 6.3 4.2 4.9 7.8 10.8 11.2 11.4 NET MIGRATION RATE -1.0 -.3 .O .0 .0 .0 .0 GROW4TH RATE 3.09 2.05 1.14 .54 .14 .06 .03 TOTAL FERTILITY 5.050 2.906 2.078 2.067 2.062 2.059 2.058 etO) - BOTH SEXES 65.92 72.99 78.48 81.75 83.59 84.99 85.54 INR - BOTH SEXES 50.7 22.9 5.7 3.4 2.7 2.2 2.1 116 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES OTHR LATN AM ICA AN CAR BBAN Projection (thousands) with NRR=I by 2000 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 194 214 234 253 270 287 302 316 329 341 MALES 0-4 11 13 13 12 12 13 13 13 13 12 5-9 13 11 12 13 12 12 12 13 13 12 10-14 11 13 11 13 13 12 12 12 13 13 15-19 11 11 33 11 12 13 12 12 12 12 20-24 10 11 11 13 11 12 13 12 12 12 25-29 8 10 11 11 13 11 12 13 12 12 30-34 6 8 10 11 11 13 11 12 12 12 35-39 5 6 8 10 11 11 13 11 12 12 40-44 5 5 6 8 10 I1 11 12 11 12 45-49 5 5 5 6 8 9 11 11 12 11 50-54 3 5 5 5 6 8 9 10 10 12 55-59 3 3 4 4 4 6 7 9 10 10 60-64 2 3 3 4 4 4 5 7 8 9 65-69 2 1 2 2 3 3 3 5 6 7 70-74 2 1 1 2 2 3 3 3 4 5 75+ 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 TOTAL 98 108 118 127 135 143 151 157 163 168 FEMALES 0-4 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 5-9 13 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 10-14 11 13 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 15-19 11 11 13 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 20-24 10 11 11 13 11 12 12 12 12 12 25-29 8 10 11 11 13 11 12 12 12 12 30-34 6 8 10 11 11 13 11 12 12 12 35-39 5 6 8 10 11 11 13 11 12 12 40-44 5 5 6 8 10 11 11 13 11 12 45-49 3 5 5 6 8 10 11 11 13 11 50-54 3 3 5 5 6 8 9 11 11 12 55-59 3 3 3 4 4 6 8 9 11 11 60-64 2 3 3 3 4 4 6 7 9 10 65-69 2 1 3 3 3 4 4 5 7 8 70-74 2 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 5 6 75+ 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 5 5 7 TOTAL 96 106 116 126 135 144 152 159 166 172 BIRTH RATE 25.2 23.3 20.5 18.9 18.0 17.2 16.3 15.5 14.9 DEATH RATE 7.5 6.8 6.2 6.0 6.4 6.7 7.1 7.6 8.1 RATE OF NAT. INC. 1.77 1.64 1.42 1.29 1.17 1.05 .92 .79 .67 NET MIGRATION RATE 2.0 1.4 1.0 .6 .3 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.97 1.79 1.52 1.35 1.19 1.05 .92 .79 .6? TOTAL FERTILITY 3.018 2.608 2.254 2.126 2.121 2.116 2.111 2.106 2.101 NRR 1.363 1.200 1.050 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 66.50 68.13 69.61 70.92 71.42 71.93 72.45 72.98 73.53 0(15) - BOTH SEXES 55.84 56.58 57.37 58.19 58.57 58.96 59.36 59.78 60.20 IMR - BOTH SEXES 42.8 34.8 28.1 22.8 21.4 20.0 18.6 17.2 15.8 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0543 .0427 .0337 .0273 .0257 .0241 .0225 .0209 .0192 DEP. RATIO 70.4 61.9 55.2 52.1 48.6 46.1 44.6 44.7 45.9 48.1 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 117 Summary Projection for 25-Year Periods OTH R lATIN AMEDRICA AND CARIBBEFAN AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 194 253 329 368 378 382 383 384 MALES 0-4 11 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 5-9 13 13 13 13 12 12 12 12 10-14 11 13 13 12 12 12 12 12 15-19 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 20-24 10 13 12 12 12 12 12 12 25-29 8 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 30-34 6 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 35-39 5 10 12 12 12 12 12 12 40-44 5 8 11 12 12 12 12 12 45-49 5 6 12 12 12 12 12 12 50-54 3 5 10 11 12 12 12 12 55-59 3 4 10 11 11 11 11 11 60-64 2 4 8 10 10 10 10 10 65-69 2 2 6 8 9 9 9 9 70-74 2 2 4 8 8 8 8 8 75+ 2 2 4 9 11 12 12 12 TOTAL 98 127 163 180 184 185 185 185 FEMALES 0-4 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 5-9 13 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 10-14 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 15-19 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 20-24 10 13 12 12 12 12 12 12 25-29 8 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 30-34 6 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 35-39 5 10 12 12 12 12 12 12 40-44 5 8 11 12 12 12 12 12 45-49 3 6 13 11 12 12 12 12 50-54 3 5 11 11 12 12 12 12 55-59 3 4 11 12 11 11 11 11 60-64 2 3 9 11 11 11 11 11 65-69 2 3 7 10 11 11 11 11 70-74 2 2 5 10 10 10 10 10 75+ 2 2 5 16 21 23 24 24 TOTAL 96 126 166 188 195 197 198 199 BIRTH RATE 22.8 17.1 14.1 13.2 13.0 12.9 12.9 DEATH RATE 6.8 6.8 9.7 12.1 12.7 12.8 12.8 NET MIGRATION RATE 1.4 .2 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.76 1.06 .45 .11 .04 .02 .01 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.592 2.116 2.092 2.076 2.074 2.072 2.072 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 68.17 71.99 74.71 76.71 77.24 77.61 77.70 IMR - BOTH SEXES 35.3 20.0 13.0 8.5 7.6 7.1 6.9 118 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITOR!3S OTHER NORTHERN AMERICA Projection (thousands) with NRR-1 by 2030 AGE GROWP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 115 121 126 131 135 138 141 143 144 145 MALES 0-4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5-9 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 10-14 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 15-19 6 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 20-24 6 6 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 25-29 6 6 6 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 30-34 5 6 6 6 5 4 5 5 5 5 35-39 5 5 6 6 6 5 4 5 5 5 40-44 4 5 5 5 6 6 5 4 5 5 45-49 3 4 5 5 5 6 6 5 4 5 50-54 3 3 4 5 5 5 5 6 4 4 55-59 2 3 3 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 60-64 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 65-69 1 1 2 2 2 3 4 4 4 4 70-74 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 75+ 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 4 4 TOTAL 59 62 65 67 69 70 71 72 72 72 FEMALES 0-4 4 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 5 5 5-9 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 5 10-14 5 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 15-19 6 5 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 5 20-24 6 6 5 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 25-29 5 5 6 5 4 4 5 5 5 4 30-34 5 5 5 6 5 4 4 5 5 5 35-39 4 5 5 5 6 4 4 4 5 5 40-44 3 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 45-49 3 3 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 50-54 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 55-59 2 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 4 60-64 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 65-69 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 70-74 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 75+ 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 5 5 TOTAL 55 58 61 63 66 67 69 71 72 73 BIRTH RATE 17.8 16.5 14.8 14.0 13.5 13.6 13.6 13.3 13.1 DEATH RATE 7.9 7.7 7.7 8.0 8.8 9.6 10.4 11.3 12.2 RATE OF NAT. INC. .99 .88 .70 .60 .47 .39 .31 .21 .09 NET MIGRATION RATE .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .99 .88 .70 .60 .47 .39 .31 .21 .09 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.000 2.000 2.000 2.013 2.026 2.039 2.052 2.065 2.078 NRR .943 .949 .953 .961 .968 .976 .983 .990 .997 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 69.71 70.96 72.08 73.12 73.45 73.79 74.14 74.50 74.87 et15) - BOTH SEXES 56.56 57.56 58.48 59.36 59.66 59.98 60.30 60.64 60.98 IMR - BOTH SEXES 18.5 15.5 13.1 11.3 11.0 10.6 10.3 10.0 9.7 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0223 .0187 .0160 .0139 .0136 .0132 .0128 .0125 .0121 DEP. RATIO 42.7 42.1 44.1 44.5 43.5 43.9 47.1 51.0 55.4 59.2 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 119 Sumary Projection for 25-Year Periods OTER NORTHERN AMERICA AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 115 131 14. 144 14S 146 16 146 MALES 0-4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5-9 4 5 S . 5 5 5 5 5 10-14 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 15-19 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 20-24 6 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 25-29 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 30-34 5 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 35-39 5 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 40-44 4 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 45-49 3 5 4 4 5 5 5 5 50-54 3 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 55-59 2 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 60-64 2 3 5 4 4 4 4 4 65-69 1 2 4 4 3 4 4 4 70-74 1 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 75+ 1 1 4 5 5 5 5 5 TOTAL 59 67 72 71 70 70 71 71 FEMALES 0-4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5-9 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 10-14 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 15-19 6 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 20-24 6 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 25-29 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 30-34 5 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 35-39 4 5 5 4 4 5 5 5 40-44 3 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 45-49 3 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 50-54 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 55-59 2 3 5 5 4 4 4 4 60-64 2 3 5 5 4 4 4 4 65-69 1 2 4 4 4 4 4 4 70-74 1 2 3 3 4 4 4 4 75+ 2 2 5 8 9 9 9 9 TOTAL 55 63 72 74 75 75 76 76 BIRTH RATE 16.3 13.6 13.0 13.0 12.9 12.9 12.9 DEATH RATE 7.8 9.7 13.0 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.8 NET MIGRATION RATE .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .86 .40 -.00 .02 .02 .01 .00 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.000 2.039 2.080 2.075 2.073 2.072 2.071 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 70.95 73.81 75.66 77.03 77.41 77.67 77.73 IMR - BOTH SEXES 15.8 10.6 9.1 7.9 7.4 7.0 6.9 120 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRrIORIES PANAMA ProJection (thousands) with NRRn1 by 2000 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 2180 2418 2634 2826 3012 3205 3396 3578 3745 3897 MALES 0-4 144 152 143 133 132 138 141 141 138 136 5-9 138 143 151 142 132 132 138 141 140 138 10-14 136 137 142 150 141 132 131 137 141 140 15-19 125 135 137 141 149 141 131 131 137 141 20-24 108 124 134 135 140 148 140 130 130 137 25-29 93 107 122 132 134 139 147 139 130 130 30-34 75 92 105 121 131 133 138 146 138 129 35-39 63 74 91 104 120 130 132 137 145 138 40-44 51 62 73 89 103 118 129 130 136 144 45-49 41 50 61 71 88 101 117 127 129 134 50-54 35 40 48 59 70 86 99 114 124 127 55-59 29 33 38 46 57 67 83 96 111 121 60-64 24 27 31 35 43 53 63 79 91 106 65-69 20 21 24 28 32 40 49 59 73 86 70-74 14 16 18 20 24 27 34 43 52 66 75+ 15 17 21 24 28 33 40 50 64 81 TOTAL 1112 1231 1338 1432 1524 1618 1712 1800 1881 1953 FEMALES 0-4 137 146 137 127 127 132 135 134 132 130 5-9 132 136 145 136 127 126 132 135 134 131 10-14 131 131 135 144 136 126 126 131 134 134 15-19 122 130 131 135 144 136 126 126 131 134 20-24 106 121 129 130 134 143 135 126 125 131 25-29 88 105 119 128 129 133 142 134 125 125 30-34 72 87 104 118 127 128 132 142 134 125 35-39 60 71 86 103 117 126 127 132 141 134 40-44 49 59 70 85 102 117 125 126 131 141 45-49 40 48 58 69 84 101 116 124 125 130 50-54 33 39 47 57 68 83 99 114 123 124 55-59 28 32 38 46 56 67 81 98 112 121 60-64 23 27 30 36 44 54 65 79 95 110 65-69 19 21 25 28 34 42 52 62 76 92 70-74 13 16 19 22 26 31 39 48 58 72 75+ 16 18 23 28 35 43 53 67 86 109 TOTAL 1068 1187 1297 1394 1489 1587 1684 1778 1864 1944 BIRTH RATE 26.6 22.7 19.5 18.1 17.6 17.0 15.9 14.8 14.0 DEATH RATE 5.0 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.8 5.0 5.3 5.6 6.0 RATE OF NAT. INC. 2.16 1.79 1.48 1.34 1.28 1.19 1.06 .92 .80 NET MIGRATION RATE -.9 -.8 -.7 -.6 .4 -.3 -.2 -.1 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.07 1.71 1.40 1.28 1.24 1.16 1.04 .91 .80 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.140 2.653 2.242 2.096 2.090 2.085 2.080 2.075 2.070 NRR 1.479 1.256 1.066 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 72.08 73.06 74.16 75.32 76.22 77.15 78.13 79.15 80.21 e(S) - BOTH SEXES 59.40 60.05 60.86 61.77 62.49 63.24 64.03 64.85 65.72 INR - BOTH SEXES 23.0 19.4 16.1 13.3 11.4 9.6 7.8 5.9 4.1 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0275 .0233 .0195 .0162 .0141 .0120 .0098 .0077 .0056 DEP. RATIO 72.3 65.4 59.4 53.4 47.7 45.5 45.9 47.2 48.8 50.9 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 121 Summary Projection for 25-Year Periods PANAM AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 2180 2826 3745 4331 4494 4567 4610 4632 MALES 0-4 144 133 138 139 138 138 138 138 5-9 138 142 140 139 138 138 138 138 10-14 136 150 141 138 137 138 138 138 15-19 125 141 137 136 137 138 138 138 20-24 108 135 130 136 137 138 137 137 25-29 93 132 130 137 138 137 137 137 30-34 75 121 138 139 137 137 137 137 35-39 63 104 145 138 136 136 136 136 40-44 51 89 136 134 134 135 136 136 45-49 41 71 129 127 132 134 135 135 50-54 35 59 124 125 132 134 134 134 55-59 29 46 111 130 132 132 131 132 60-64 24 35 91 133 128 128 128 129 65-69 20 28 73 118 120 121 123 124 70-74 14 20 52 103 106 113 117 118 75+ 15 24 64 180 236 258 269 275 TOTAL 1112 1432 1881 2151 2219 2252 2271 2280 FEMALES 0-4 137 127 132 132 132 131 131 131 5-9 132 136 134 132 131 131 131 131 10-14 131 144 134 131 131 131 131 131 15-19 122 135 131 130 131 131 131 131 20-24 106 130 125 129 131 131 131 131 25-29 88 128 125 131 132 131 131 131 30-34 72 118 134 133 132 131 131 131 35-39 60 103 141 134 131 131 131 131 40-44 49 85 131 130 129 130 131 131 45-49 40 69 125 124 128 130 131 131 50-54 33 57 123 123 129 130 130 130 55-59 28 46 112 130 131 130 130 130 60-64 23 36 95 135 130 128 128 129 65-69 19 28 76 123 125 125 127 128 70-74 13 22 58 114 116 122 126 127 75+ 16 28 86 248 336 369 387 396 TOTAL 1068 1394 1864 2180 2274 2315 2339 2351 BIRTH RATE 22.7 16.6 13.3 12.2 11.9 11.8 11.7 DEATH RATE 4.8 5.1 7.5 10.7 11.3 11.4 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE -.8 -.3 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.73 1.13 .58 .15 .06 .04 .02 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.652 2.085 2.067 2.062 2.059 2.058 2.057 et0) - BOTH SEXES 73.16 77.30 81.32 83.44 84.62 85.50 85.86 BOTH SEXES 19.7 9.6 3.6 2.7 2.3 2.1 2.0 122 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRTORIES PARAGUAY ProJection (thousmnds) with NRR=1 by 2030 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 3693 4314 4989 5694 6432 7215 8041 8843 9588 10256 MALES 0-4 296 358 398 420 444 474 504 500 481 454 5-9 251 295 356 396 418 442 472 502 499 480 10-14 224 251 294 354 395 417 441 471 501 498 15-19 204 223 250 292 353 394 416 440 470 500 20-24 184 204 222 248 290 350 391 413 438 468 25-29 162 184 202 219 245 288 348 388 411 435 30-34 144 162 182 199 217 243 285 345 386 408 35-39 92 143 159 179 197 215 240 283 342 383 40-44 72 91 140 156 176 194 212 237 279 339 45-49 61 70 88 136 152 172 190 208 233 275 50-54 46 59 67 85 131 147 166 184 202 227 55-59 40 43 55 63 79 123 139 158 176 194 60-64 33 36 39 49 57 73 114 129 148 165 65-69 25 28 31 33 42 50 64 101 115 133 70-74 16 19 22 24 26 34 40 53 84 98 75. 17 19 22 25 28 32 40 50 66 100 TOTAL 1868 2184 2525 2881 3253 3647 4061 4461 4830 5159 FEMALES 0-4 285 344 383 404 426 454 482 478 459 433 5-9 242 284 343 382 402 425 453 481 477 459 10-14 215 242 284 342 381 402 424 453 481 477 15-19 196 215 241 283 341 380 401 424 452 480 20-24 177 196 214 240 282 340 379 400 423 451 25-29 155 177 194 212 239 280 339 378 399 422 30-34 134 154 175 193 211 237 279 337 376 398 35-39 88 133 153 173 191 209 236 277 335 375 40-44 71 87 131 150 171 189 207 234 275 334 45-49 60 70 85 128 148 168 186 205 231 273 50-54 49 58 67 83 125 144 165 183 201 228 55-59 45 47 56 65 79 120 140 160 178 197 60-64 37 42 44 52 61 75 115 134 154 173 65-69 28 33 37 39 47 55 69 107 126 146 70-74 20 23 27 31 33 40 48 61 96 115 75+ 23 26 30 35 41 47 57 72 93 138 TOTAL 1825 2130 2464 2812 3179 3568 3980 4382 4757 5098 BIRTH RATE 36.4 34.8 31.8 29.4 27.8 26.3 23.5 20.7 18.0 DEATH RATE 6.3 5.9 5.5 5.1 4.8 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.6 RATE OF NAT. INC. 3.01 2.88 2.63 2.44 2.30 2.17 1.90 1.62 1.3S NET MIGRATION RATE 1.0 .2 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 3.11 2.91 2.64 2.44 2.30 2.17 1.90 1.62 1.35 TOTAL FERTILITY 4.800 4.500 4.200 3.900 3.600 3.300 2.881 2.516 2.197 NRR 2.187 2.071 1.952 1.829 1.696 1.562 1.370 1.202 1.054 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 66.87 67.56 68.56 69.77 70.96 72.20 73.52 74.90 76.36 C15) - BOTH SEXES 55.15 55.49 56.05 56.88 57.84 58.85 59.92 61.06 62.27 IMR - BOTH SEXES 33.5 30.2 25.7 21.3 18.6 15.8 13.1 10.4 7.7 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0410 .0366 .0307 .0255 .0224 .0192 .0161 .0129 .0098 DEP. RATIO 80.1 80.3 80.6 77.5 71.7 66.2 62.6 60.3 56.9 52.5 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 123 Suunary Projection for 25-Year Periods PARAGUAY AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL MIF 3693 5694 9588 12749 14820 15522 15776 15891 MALES 0-4 296 420 481 483 478 475 474 474 5-9 251 396 499 486 476 473 474 474 10-14 224 354 501 478 471 472 474 474 15-19 204 292 470 456 468 473 474 474 20-24 184 248 438 451 471 475 474 473 25-29 162 219 411 475 478 475 472 472 30-34 144 199 386 491 481 471 469 470 35-39 92 179 342 491 470 465 467 469 40-44 72 156 279 457 447 460 466 468 45-49 61 136 233 422 438 460 466 466 50-54 46 85 202 390 457 463 462 460 55-59 40 63 176 357 462 458 452 452 60-64 33 49 148 303 448 437 436 441 65-69 25 33 115 231 397 399 417 426 70-74 16 24 84 172 339 367 395 404 75< 17 25 66 238 578 838 903 930 TOTAL 1868 2881 4830 6379 7358 7662 7776 7827 FEMALES 0-4 285 404 459 460 456 453 452 452 5-9 242 382 477 464 454 451 452 452 10-14 215 342 481 455 449 450 452 452 15-19 196 283 452 435 446 451 452 452 20-24 177 240 423 431 450 454 453 452 25-29 155 212 399 457 458 455 452 452 30-34 134 193 376 474 462 452 451 451 35-39 as 173 335 476 453 447 449 451 40-44 71 150 275 446 432 443 449 451 45-49 60 128 231 415 426 446 451 451 50-54 49 83 201 388 448 453 451 449 55-59 45 65 178 361 461 453 446 446 60-64 37 52 154 315 457 441 438 442 65-69 28 39 126 250 420 415 431 439 70-74 20 31 96 198 377 400 427 435 75 23 35 93 342 813 1195 1293 1337 TOTAL 1825 2812 4757 6370 7461 7860 8000 8064 BIRTH RATE 34.1 25.1 16.6 13.4 12.2 11.9 11.7 DEATH RATE 5.9 4.7 5.3 7.4 10.4 11.2 11.4 NET MIGRATION RATE .4 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROUTH RATE 2.89 2.08 1.14 .60 .19 .06 .03 TOTAL FERTILITY 4.459 3.154 2.098 2.066 2.062 2.059 2.058 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 67.74 72.54 78.19 81.62 83.51 84.95 85.52 IHR - BOTH SEXES 29.6 15.7 6.1 3.4 2.7 2.2 2.1 124 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES PERU Projection (thousands) with NRR=1 by 2010 AGE GRWJP 1985 l199 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL N F 19383 21663 24126 26526 28774 30770 32728 34726 36675 38483 MALES 0-4 1387 1496 1602 l581 1516 1421 1441 1510 1537 1522 5-9 1300 1360 1474 1585 1568 1505 1413 1434 1504 1532 10-14 1184 1291 1352 147 1579 1563 1501 1410 1431 1501 15-19 1060 1174 1282 1344 1460 1572 1556 1495 1405 1427 20-24 930 1045 1160 1269 1333 1449 1561 1547 1487 1398 25-29 770 914 1030 1145 1257 1321 1438 1550 1537 1478 30-34 639 756 900 1016 1134 1245 1311 1427 1540 1528 35-39 517 626 743 886 1004 1122 1233 1299 1416 1529 40-44 426 504 612 n9 873 99 1107 1218 1285 1402 45-49 366 411 488 595 712 853 970 1086 1197 1264 50-54 307 348 392 467 572 686 825 940 1055 1166 55-59 242 284 323 366 439 540 650 784 897 1010 60-64 184 215 254 291 332 400 495 599 727 836 65-69 136 154 182 217 251 289 350 437 533 651 70-74 97 103 119 142 172 201 234 287 362 445 75+ 86 100 112 129 15 195 238 287 356 455 TOTAL 9632 10781 12022 13229 14356 15352 16323 17311 18268 19145 FEHALES 0-4 1375 1447 1547 1524 1459 1366 1383 1446 1471 1454 5-9 1293 1351 1429 1533 1514 1451 1360 1378 1443 1468 10-14 1178 1285 1345 1424 1529 1511 1448 1358 1376 1441 15-19 1057 1169 1278 1339 1420 1525 1507 1445 1356 1374 20-24 929 1046 1159 1269 1333 1414 1520 1503 1442 1353 25-29 772 916 1033 1148 1261 1326 1408 1514 1498 1438 30-34 643 760 903 1023 1140 1253 1319 1402 1509 1494 35-39 523 632 748 893 1014 1131 1245 1311 1394 1502 40-44 433 512 620 737 882 1003 1120 1234 1301 1386 45-49 376 422 500 608 724 869 989 1106 1220 1288 50-54 321 363 408 486 593 708 850 970 1087 1201 55-59 259 304 346 391 468 572 686 826 945 1061 60-64 203 239 282 323 368 443 544 655 792 910 65-69 157 178 211 252 292 335 406 504 611 745 70-74 116 125 44 173 211 248 289 355 447 549 75+ 116 133 150 174 210 265 331 408 517 672 TOTAL 9751 10882 12104 13296 14417 15419 16405 17415 18408 19338 BIRTH RATE 31.3 29.6 26.1 22.6 19.5 1L8.4 18.0 17.2 16.0 DEATH RATE 8.9 7.9 7.0 6.3 6.1 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 RATE OF MAT. INC. 2.24 2.17 1.91 1.64 1.35 1.23 1.19 1.09 .96 NET MIGRATION RATE -.2 -.2 -.1 -.1 -.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROUTH RATE 2.22 2.15 1.90 1.63 1.34 1.23 1.19 1.09 .96 TOTAL FERTILITY 4.055 3.582 3.083 2.653 2.284 2.150 2.130 2.111 2.091 NRR 1.728 1.569 1.381 1.211 1.052 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 etO) - BOTH SEXES 61.41 63.58 65.76 67.87 69.18 70.55 71.97 73.46 75.01 e(IS) - BOTH SEXES 53.52 54.56 55.73 57.02 57.77 58.56 59.40 60.28 61.20 INR - BOTH SEXES 76.0 64.8 54.1 44.6 37.8 31.0 24.2 17.4 10.6 qtS) - BOTH SEXES .0950 .O78 .0645 .0528 .0449 .0370 .0291 .0211 .0132 DEP. RATIO 76.9 71.4 66.9 62.5 57.1 50.7 46.5 45.2 46.2 47.7 COUNTIRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRrFORIES 125 Sumary Projeotfan for 25-Year Periods PERU AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL *+F 19383 26526 36675 44006 47399 487M 49642 50072 MALES 0-4 1387 1561 1537 1505 1497 1497 1498 1498 5-9 1300 1565 1504 1486 1492 1496 1497 1497 10-14 1184 1467 1431 1475 1495 1498 1498 1497 15-19 1060 1344 1405 1485 1502 1499 1497 1496 20-24 930 1269 1487 1508 1503 1495 1492 1493 25-29 770 1145 1537 1513 1490 1486 1487 1489 30-34 639 1016 1540 1476 1467 1477 1483 1485 35-39 517 886 1416 1398 1450 1474 1481 1482 40-44 426 729 1285 1364 1452 1475 1477 1476 45-49 366 595 1197 1432 1465 1468 1466 1465 50-54 307 467 1055 1456 1452 1442 1444 1449 55-59 242 366 897 1416 1387 1396 1415 1426 60-64 184 291 727 1242 1270 1343 1382 1396 65-69 136 217 533 1043 1174 1291 1335 1348 70-74 97 142 362 857 1130 1218 1257 1270 75+ 86 129 356 1146 2186 2523 2 m 2901 TOTAL 9632 13229 18268 21801 23412 24079 24480 24667 FEMALES 0-4 1375 1524 1471 1435 1427 1427 1428 1428 5-9 1293 1533 1443 1418 1422 1426 1428 1427 10-14 1178 1424 1376 1408 1425 1429 1428 1427 15-19 1057 1339 1356 1421 1432 1430 1428 1427 20-24 929 1269 1442 1447 1436 1428 1426 1426 25-29 772 1148 1498 1460 1429 1423 1424 1425 30-34 643 1023 1509 1431 1411 1418 1423 1425 35-39 523 893 1394 1362 1399 1418 1424 1425 40-44 433 737 1301 1336 1407 1423 1424 1423 45-49 376 608 1220 1413 1428 1424 1419 1419 50-54 321 486 1087 1453 1431 1410 1410 1413 55-59 259 391 945 1441 1389 1383 1398 1408 60-64 203 323 792 1299 1302 1358 1389 1401 65-69 157 252 611 1166 1248 1346 1380 1390 70-74 116 173 447 1022 1267 1333 1358 1367 75+ 116 174 517 1692 3133 3618 3975 4174 TOTAL 9751 13296 18408 22205 23987 24694 25162 25405 BIRTH RATE 28.8 19.0 14.5 12.8 12.2 11.9 11.8 DEATH RATE 7.8 6.2 7.3 9.8 11.1 11.2 11.4 NET MIGRATION RATE -.2 -.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.09 1.30 .73 .30 .11 .07 .03 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.523 2.251 2.083 2.068 2.063 2.059 2.058 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 63.73 70.78 77.00 80.89 83.07 84.73 85.38 INR - BOTH SEXES 64.9 31.0 8.1 3.8 2.9 2.3 2.1 126 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES PU RTO RICO ProJection (thouands) with NRRu1 by 1995 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1S95 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 3377 3530 3650 3761 3859 3937 4001 4072 4151 4238 MALES 0-4 148 167 155 151 146 140 137 136 136 136 5-9 165 146 164 152 148 143 138 135 135 136 10-14 177 163 143 161 150 146 141 136 134 135 15-19 182 175 160 141 159 148 143 139 135 134 20-24 141 179 171 156 137 lSS 144 141 138 135 25-29 109 137 174 166 152 133 151 141 139 137 30-34 93 105 133 170 162 148 129 148 139 138 35-39 100 91 102 130 166 159 144 126 146 138 40-44 93 98 88 99 127 163 156 142 125 145 45-49 79 91 95 85 97 124 160 153 140 124 50-54 73 76 88 92 83 94 121 1S7 150 138 55-59 65 70 73 84 89 80 91 117 152 146 60-64 61 60 65 68 79 84 76 87 112 147 65-69 5S 54 54 59 62 73 78 71 81 106 70-74 45 45 45 46 51 54 64 69 64 74 75+ 62 62 65 69 73 80 88 103 118 123 TOTAL 1648 1719 1776 1830 1881 1923 1961 2001 2045 2093 FEMALES 0-4 136 159 148 144 139 134 131 130 129 130 5-9 155 134 156 145 141 136 131 129 129 129 10-14 161 154 131 154 143 139 134 130 128 129 15-19 170 158 151 129 151 140 136 132 129 128 20-24 149 165 153 145 123 145 135 132 130 129 25-29 120 144 159 146 138 116 139 130 130 130 30-34 112 116 139 154 141 133 111 135 128 130 35-39 119 110 112 135 150 137 130 109 134 128 40-44 105 117 107 110 133 147 135 128 108 134 45-49 92 104 115 106 108 131 146 134 127 108 50-54 84 90 102 113 104 107 130 144 133 126 55-59 75 82 89 100 112 103 105 128 143 131 60-64 74 72 80 87 98 109 101 104 127 141 65-69 61 70 69 77 84 96 107 99 102 124 70-74 47 56 65 65 73 80 92 103 95 99 75+ 70 81 99 122 140 158 179 204 234 249 TOTAL 1729 1811 1874 1931 1979 2014 2041 2071 2106 2145 BIRTH RATE 19.3 17.3 16.3 15.3 14.4 13.8 13.3 13.0 12.7 DEATH RATE 7.9 7.4 7.2 7.1 7.4 7.6 7.9 8.2 8.6 RATE OF MAT. INC. 1.14 .99 .91 .82 .70 .62 .54 .48 .41 NET MIGRATION RATE -2.5 -3.2 -3.1 -3.0 -3.0 -2.9 -1.9 -.9 .0 GROWTH RATE .89 .67 .60 .51 .40 .32 .35 .38 .41 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.400 2.171 2.085 2.080 2.077 2.073 2.070 2.066 2.063 NRR 1.144 1.038 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 oCO) - BOTH SEXES 74.87 76.27 77.51 78.70 79.37 80.06 80.76 81.49 82.25 *C15) - BOTH SEXES 61.38 62.58 63.64 64.68 65.24 65.81 66.40 67.01 67.64 IMR - BOTH SEXES 14.2 11.9 10.0 8.3 7.3 6.3 5.2 4.2 3.1 qt5) - BOTH SEXES .0173 .0147 .0125 .0105 .0093 .0081 .0069 .0057 .0064 DEP. RATIO 61.1 57.6 55.0 55.7 53.8 54.0 55.0 54.9 55.7 58.8 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 127 Summary Projection for 25-Year Periods PUERTO RICO AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 3377 3761 4151 4449 4488 4522 4550 4565 MALES 0-4 148 151 136 135 135 135 135 135 5-9 165 152 135 135 135 135 135 135 10-14 177 161 134 135 135 135 135 135 15-19 182 141 135 135 135 135 135 135 20-24 141 156 138 135 135 135 135 135 25-29 109 166 139 135 134 135 135 135 30-34 93 170 139 133 134 134 134 134 35-39 100 130 146 133 133 134 134 134 40-44 93 99 125 133 133 133 134 134 45-49 79 85 140 134 133 133 133 133 50-54 73 92 150 134 131 131 131 131 55-59 65 84 152 132 127 128 129 130 60-64 61 68 112 134 123 125 126 127 65-69 55 59 81 110 119 121 122 123 70-74 45 46 64 115 113 114 115 116 75. 62 69 118 238 252 256 266 272 TOTAL 1648 1830 2045 2206 2209 2221 2236 2245 FEMALES 0-4 136 144 129 129 129 129 129 129 5-9 155 145 129 129 129 129 129 129 10-14 161 154 128 129 129 129 129 129 15-19 170 129 129 129 129 129 129 129 20-24 149 145 130 130 129 129 129 129 25-29 120 146 130 129 129 129 129 129 30-34 112 154 128 128 129 129 129 129 35-39 119 135 134 128 129 129 129 129 40-44 105 110 108 128 129 129 129 129 45-49 92 106 127 129 129 129 129 129 50-54 84 113 133 128 128 128 128 128 55-59 75 100 143 126 127 127 128 128 60-64 74 87 127 130 125 127 127 127 65-69 61 77 102 104 124 126 126 126 70-74 47 65 95 120 124 124 125 125 75+ 70 122 234 347 362 379 390 396 TOTAL 1729 1931 2106 2243 2279 2301 2314 2321 BIRTH RATE 17.6 13.9 12.3 11.9 11.8 11.7 11.6 DEATH RATE 7.5 7.7 9.5 11.5 11.5 11.4 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE -3.0 -2.3 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .72 .39 .28 .03 .03 .03 .01 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.222 2.073 2.061 2.059 2.058 2.057 2.057 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 76.25 80.10 83.00 84.44 85.23 85.82 86.06 INR - BOTH SEXES 12.1 6.3 2.9 2.4 2.1 2.0 1.9 128 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRrIORIES ST. IKlTr S AN NE S Projection (thousands) with NRR=1 by 2000 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1°99 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 43 40 37 35 34 34 3S 37 39 41 MALES 0-4 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 59 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 10-14 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 15-19 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 20-24 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 25-29 1 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 30-34 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 35-39 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 40-44 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 2 1 45-49 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 2 50-54 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 55-59 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 60-64 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 65-69 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 70-74 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 75+ 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 TOTAL 20 19 17 16 16 16 17 18 19 20 FEMALES 0-4 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 5-9 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 10-14 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 15-19 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 20-24 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 25-29 1 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 30-34 1 1 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 35-39 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0-44 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 45-49 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 50-54 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 55-59 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 60-64 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 65-69 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 70-74 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 7n5 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 TOTAL 22 21 20 19 18 18 18 19 20 21 BIRTH RATE 23.6 22.2 21.4 20.3 19.1 17.5 16.3 15.6 14.9 DEATH RATE 10.4 9.7 9.2 8.5 7.7 7.0 6.2 5.4 4.9 RATE OF NAT. INC. 1.32 1.25 1.22 1.19 1.13 1.04 1.01 1.02 1.00 NET MIGRATION RATE -29.2 -26.2 -22.2 -17.3 -11.7 -5.8 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE -1.60 -1.37 -1.00 -.55 -.04 46 1.01 1.02 1.00 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.800 2.494 2.221 2.120 2.110 2.100 2.090 2.080 2.070 NRR 1.287 1.158 1.040 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 68.49 70.43 72.27 74.00 74.99 76.01 77.06 78.15 79.28 e15) - BOTH SEXES 57.25 58.71 60.06 61.37 62.02 62.69 63.38 64.10 64.85 INR - BOTH SEXES 40.0 34.0 28.1 22.9 19.2 15.6 11.9 8.3 4.6 qt5) - BOTH SEXES .0474 .0404 .0336 .0277 .0234 .0191 .0148 .0106 .0063 DEP. RATIO 88.2 83.1 75.2 68.2 63.2 57.2 49.6 42.9 40.5 43.7 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 129 Suamary Projection for 25-Year Periods ST. KIITS AND NEVIS AGE GROUWP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M4F 43 35 39 46 49 49 50 50 MALES 0-4 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 5-9 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 10-14 3 2 1 2 2 1 1 1 15-19 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 20-24 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 25-29 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 30-34 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 35-39 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 40-44 1 0 2 1 1 1 1 1 45-49 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 50-54 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 55-59 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 60-64 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 65-69 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 70-74 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 75+ 0 1 0 2 2 3 3 3 TOTAL 20 16 19 23 24 24 25 25 FEMALES 0-4 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 5-9 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 10-14 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 15-19 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 20-24 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 25-29 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 30-34 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 35-39 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 40-44 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 45-49 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 50-54 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 55-59 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 60-64 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 65-69 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 70-74 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 75+ 1 1 1 3 4 4 4 4 TOTAL 22 19 20 24 25 25 25 26 BIRTH RATE 22.4 17.7 13.7 12.3 12.0 11.8 11.7 DEATH RATE 9.8 6.9 6.5 10.5 11.3 11.3 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE -26.0 -6.8 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE -1.32 .38 .74 .18 .07 .05 .02 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.516 2.101 2.067 2.062 2.060 2.058 2.057 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 70.31 76.09 80.57 83.01 84.37 85.38 85.78 IMR - BOTH SEXES 34.5 15.9 4.0 2.8 2.4 2.1 2.0 130 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES ST. LUCIA ProJection (thousands) with NRRuI by 2005 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL N+F 137 150 162 176 190 202 215 228 241 254 MALES 0-4 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 10 10 5-9 11 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 10 10-14 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 15-19 8 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 20-24 5 8 11 11 10 9 9 10 10 9 25-29 3 5 8 10 10 9 9 9 10 10 30-34 2 3 5 7 10 10 9 9 9 10 35-39 2 2 3 4 7 10 10 9 9 9 40-44 2 2 2 2 4 7 10 10 9 9 45-49 2 2 2 2 2 4 7 10 10 9 50-54 2 2 2 2 2 2 4 7 10 10 55-59 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 4 7 9 60-64 1 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 4 6 65-69 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 3 70-74 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 75+ 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 TOTAL 65 72 78 86 93 99 106 112 119 126 FEMALES 0-4 9 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 5_9 11 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 9 9 10-14 11 11 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 9 15-19 8 11 11 8 9 9 10 9 9 9 20-24 6 8 10 10 8 9 9 10 9 9 25-29 4 6 7 10 10 8 9 9 10 9 30-34 3 4 5 7 10 10 8 9 9 10 35-39 3 3 4 5 7 10 10 8 9 9 40-44 3 3 3 3 5 7 10 10 8 9 45-49 3 3 3 3 3 5 7 10 10 8 50-54 3 3 3 3 3 3 5 7 10 10 55-59 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 5 7 10 60-64 2 2 3 3 3 3 2 3 5 7 65-69 2 2 2 3 3 3 2 2 3 5 70-74 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 75+ 2 2 2 2 3 4 4 5 5 5 TOTAL 72 78 84 91 97 103 109 115 122 128 BIRTH RATE 28.3 25.6 24.7 21.4 19.1 17.9 16.9 16.1 15.2 DEATH RATE 6.5 5.6 5.0 4.6 4.5 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.5 RATE OF NAT. INC. 2.18 2.00 1.97 1.69 1.46 1.33 1.24 1.16 1.08 NET MIGRATION RATE -4.2 -3.6 -3.1 -2.4 -1.8 -1.3 -.7 -.3 .0 GROUTH RATE 1.76 1.64 1.66 1.45 1.28 1.20 1.17 1.13 1.08 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.500 3.006 2.582 2.217 2.086 2.082 2.077 2.073 2.068 NRR 1.648 1.426 1.230 1.060 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 e0) - BOTH SEXES 70.45 72.24 73.93 75.46 76.34 77.25 78.20 79.19 80.23 e15) - BOTH SEXES 5'.55 59.03 60.46 61.77 62.49 63.25 64.04 64.87 65.73 INR 0 BOTH SEXES 21.0 17.3 14.2 11.7 10.2 8.6 7.1 5.6 4.1 q(S) - BOTH SEXES .0252 .0209 .0173 .0144 .0126 .0109 .0091 .0074 .0056 DEP. RATIO 107.7 83.6 68.6 64.3 58.7 53.3 47.4 43.3 41.7 42.6 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 131 Sumrary Projectfon for 25-Year Periods ST. LUCIA AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 137 176 241 295 309 315 318 320 MALES 0-4 10 10 10 10 9 10 10 10 5-9 11 10 9 9 9 10 10 10 10-14 11 10 9 9 10 10 10 10 15-19 8 10 9 10 10 10 9 9 20-24 5 11 10 10 9 9 9 9 25-29 3 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 30-34 2 7 9 9 9 9 9 9 35-39 2 4 9 9 9 9 9 9 40-44 2 2 9 9 9 9 9 9 45-49 2 2 10 9 9 9 9 9 50-54 2 2 10 10 9 9 9 9 55-59 2 2 7 9 9 9 9 9 60-64 1 2 4 8 8 9 9 9 65-69 1 2 2 8 8 8 9 9 70-74 1 1 1 8 8 8 8 8 75+ 1 1 2 10 16 17 18 19 TOTAL 65 86 119 146 153 155 156 157 FEMALES 0-4 9 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 5-9 11 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10-14 11 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 15-19 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 20-24 6 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 25-29 4 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 30-34 3 7 9 9 9 9 9 9 35-39 3 5 9 9 9 9 9 9 40-44 3 3 8 9 9 9 9 9 45-49 3 3 10 9 9 9 9 9 50-54 3 3 10 9 9 9 9 9 55-59 2 3 7 9 9 9 9 9 60-64 2 3 5 8 9 9 9 9 65-69 2 3 3 7 8 9 9 9 70-74 1 2 2 9 9 9 9 9 75+ 2 2 5 15 23 25 27 27 TOTAL 72 91 122 149 157 160 161 162 BIRTH RATE 26.1 18.1 13.8 12.3 11.9 11.8 11.7 DEATH RATE 5.6 4.5 5.8 10.4 11.3 11.4 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE -3.6 -1.3 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.69 1.24 .81 .19 .07 .04 .02 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.987 2.106 2.066 2.061 2.059 2.058 2.057 eCO) BOTH SEXES 72.31 77.40 81.35 83.47 84.64 85.52 85.87 INR - BOTH SEXES 17.5 8.7 3.6 2.7 2.3 2.1 2.0 132 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES ST. VINCENT ANI) THE GRENADINES Projection (thousands) with NRR=1 by 2000 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 102 107 114 121 129 138 146 154 162 169 MALES 0-4 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5-9 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 10-14 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 15-19 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 20-24 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 25-29 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 30-34 3 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 35-39 3 3 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 40-44 2 2 3 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 45-49 1 2 2 3 4 5 5 5 6 6 50-54 1 1 1 2 3 4 5 5 5 6 55-59 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 5 5 5 60-64 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 4 4 4 65-69 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 4 70-74 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 2 3 75+ 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 TOTAL 50 52 56 59 64 68 72 77 80 83 FEMALES 0-4 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5-9 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 10-14 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 15-19 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 20-24 6 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 25-29 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 6 30-34 3 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 35-39 3 3 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 40-44 2 2 3 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 45-49 2 2 2 3 4 5 5 5 6 6 50-54 2 2 2 2 3 4 5 5 5 6 55-59 2 2 2 1 2 3 4 5 5 5 60-64 2 2 2 1 1 2 3 4 5 5 65-69 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 5 70-74 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 4 75+ 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 TOTAL 53 55 58 62 66 70 74 78 82 85 BIRTH RATE 24.4 22.4 19.9 18.8 18.1 17.0 15.8 14.8 14.1 DEATH RATE 6.3 5.6 5.0 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.3 5.8 RATE OF NAT. INC. 1.81 1.68 1.49 1.41 1.33 1.22 1.09 .95 .83 NET MIGRATION RATE -9.6 -3.6 -2.6 -1.6 -.8 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .86 1.31 1.24 1.25 1.26 1.22 1.09 .95 .83 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.750 2.455 2.192 2.095 2.090 2.085 2.079 2.074 2.069 NRR 1.283 1.160 1.042 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 eCO) - ROTH SEXES 69.24 71.10 72.85 74.50 75.43 76.39 77.40 78.46 79.56 etIS) - BOTH SEXES 56.69 58.13 59.56 60.95 61.70 62.50 63.33 64.20 65.12 INR - BOTH SEXES 25.0 20.2 16.3 13.3 11.5 9.7 8.0 6.2 4.5 qt5) - BOTH SEXES .0299 .0242 .0197 .0162 .0142 .0122 .0101 .0081 .0061 DEP. RATIO 74.3 69.1 59.5 51.6 46.6 43.7 43.5 44.2 47.3 51.1 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRrITRIES 133 Suammry ProJectIon for 25-Year Periods ST. VINCENT AND THE GUENADINES AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 102 121 162 186 194 198 200 201 MALES 0-4 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5-9 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 10-14 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 15-19 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 20-24 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 25-29 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 30-34 3 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 35-39 3 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 40-44 2 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 45-49 1 3 6 6 6 6 6 6 50-54 1 2 5 5 6 6 6 6 55-59 1 1 5 5 6 6 6 6 60-64 1 1 4 5 5 6 6 6 65-69 1 1 3 5 5 5 5 5 70-74 1 1 2 5 5 5 5 5 75+ 1 1 2 7 9 11 11 12 TOTAL 50 59 80 92 95 97 98 99 FEMALES 0-4 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5-9 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 10-14 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 15-19 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 20-24 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 25-29 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 30-34 3 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 35-39 3 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 40-44 2 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 45-49 2 3 6 6 6 6 6 6 50-54 2 2 5 5 6 6 6 6 55-59 2 1 5 6 6 6 6 6 60-64 2 1 5 5 6 6 6 6 65-69 1 1 4 6 6 5 6 6 70-74 1 1 2 5 5 5 5 6 75+ 1 2 3 10 14 16 17 17 TOTAL 53 62 82 95 99 101 102 102 BIRTH RATE 22.2 16.8 13.4 12.3 12.0 11.8 11.7 DEATH RATE 5.6 4.9 7.8 10.7 11.2 11.3 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE -5.1 -.4 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.14 1.15 .56 .16 .08 .05 .02 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.442 2.085 2.067 2.062 2.059 2.058 2.057 e. * ^ BOTH SEXES 71.13 76.55 80.80 83.16 84.47 85.44 85.82 IMR - BOTH SEXES 20.6 9.8 3.9 2.8 2.4 2.1 2.0 134 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES SURINAME Projection (thousands) with NRR=1 by 2010 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 398 447 498 545 587 627 667 710 751 789 MALES 0-4 27 34 33 31 28 27 29 31 31 30 5-9 21 27 33 33 31 28 27 29 31 31 10-14 25 21 26 33 33 31 28 27 29 31 15-19 25 25 20 26 33 33 31 28 27 29 20-24 24 24 24 20 26 33 33 31 28 27 25-29 17 23 24 24 20 26 33 32 30 28 30-34 11 16 23 23 24 20 26 32 32 30 35-39 8 11 16 22 23 23 20 25 32 32 40-44 7 8 11 15 22 23 23 19 25 32 45-49 7 7 8 10 15 21 22 23 19 25 50-54 6 7 7 7 10 14 21 22 22 19 55-59 5 6 6 6 7 9 14 20 21 21 60-64 4 5 5 6 6 6 9 13 19 20 65-69 3 4 4 5 5 5 6 8 12 17 70-74 2 2 3 3 4 4 4 5 7 10 75+ 2 2 3 3 4 5 5 6 7 9 TOTAL 196 221 246 269 290 309 329 350 371 389 FEMALES 0-4 26 32 32 30 27 26 28 29 30 29 5-9 21 25 32 32 30 27 26 27 29 29 10-14 24 20 25 32 32 30 27 26 27 29 15-19 25 24 20 25 '2 32 30 27 26 27 20-24 24 24 23 20 25 32 32 30 27 26 25-29 18 23 24 23 20 25 32 32 30 27 30-34 12 17 23 24 23 20 25 32 32 29 35-39 9 12 17 23 24 23 20 25 32 32 40-44 8 9 12 17 23 24 23 20 25 31 45-49 8 8 9 12 17 22 23 23 20 25 50-54 7 8 8 9 12 16 22 23 22 19 55-59 6 7 8 8 9 11 16 22 23 22 60-64 4 6 7 7 7 8 11 16 21 22 65-69 3 4 5 6 7 7 8 10 15 20 70-74 2 3 3 5 5 6 6 7 10 14 75+ 4 4 4 4 6 8 10 12 14 17 TOTAL 202 227 253 276 298 318 338 360 381 400 BIRTH RATE 33.0 29.0 24.2 20.2 18.0 17.7 17.7 16.7 15.3 DEATH RATE 7.3 6.2 5.4 5.0 5.0 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.6 RATE OF NAT. INC. 2.58 2.28 1.88 1.52 1.30 1.26 1.24 1.13 .97 NET MIGRATION RATE -2.4 -1.3 -.8 -.4 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.34 2.16 1.81 1.49 1.30 1.26 1.24 1.13 .97 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.679 3.218 2.840 2.506 2.212 2.104 2.094 2.083 2.073 NRR 1.665 1.483 1.325 1.180 1.046 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 66.65 68.63 70.56 72.37 73.44 74.56 75.72 76.92 78.18 eC15) - BOTH SEXES 55.90 57.30 58.64 59.91 60.63 61.39 62.18 63.01 63.88 INR - BOTH SEXES 42.0 36.5 30.7 25.2 21.3 17.4 13.5 9.6 5.7 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0531 .0450 .0372 .0301 .0256 .0211 .0166 .0120 .0075 DEP. RATIO 67.3 65.7 69.6 66.2 56.6 48.4 44.2 44.1 46.8 50.9 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 135 Sunmary Projection for 25-Year Periods SURINAME AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 398 545 751 896 957 977 989 995 MALES 0-4 27 31 31 30 30 30 30 30 5-9 21 33 31 29 29 30 30 30 10-14 25 33 29 29 29 30 30 30 15-19 25 26 27 29 30 30 30 30 20-24 24 20 28 30 30 30 30 30 25-29 17 24 30 30 30 29 29 29 30-34 11 23 32 30 29 29 29 29 35-39 8 22 32 28 29 29 29 29 40-44 7 15 25 26 28 29 29 29 45-49 7 10 19 27 29 29 29 29 50-54 6 7 22 29 29 29 29 29 55-59 5 6 21 30 28 28 28 28 60-64 4 6 19 29 26 27 27 28 65-69 3 5 12 21 23 25 26 27 70-74 2 3 7 14 22 24 25 25 75+ 2 3 7 28 48 53 56 58 TOTAL 196 269 371 440 469 480 486 489 FEMALES 0-4 26 30 30 29 28 28 28 28 5-9 21 32 29 28 28 28 28 28 10-14 24 32 27 28 28 28 28 28 15-19 25 25 26 28 28 28 28 28 20-24 24 20 27 29 29 28 28 28 25-29 18 23 30 29 29 28 28 28 30-34 12 24 32 29 28 28 28 28 35-39 9 23 32 27 28 28 28 28 40-44 8 17 25 26 28 28 28 28 45-49 8 12 20 27 28 28 28 28 50-54 7 9 22 29 29 28 28 28 55-59 6 8 23 31 28 28 28 28 60-64 4 7 21 30 26 27 28 28 65-69 3 6 15 23 25 27 27 28 70-74 2 5 10 18 25 27 27 27 75+ 4 4 14 46 73 78 82 85 TOTAL 202 276 381 455 487 497 502 505 BIRTH RATE 28.5 18.0 14.0 12.5 12.0 11.8 11.7 DEATH RATE 6.2 5.2 7.0 9.8 11.2 11.3 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE -1.4 -.1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.10 1.28 .70 .26 .08 .05 .02 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.220 2.186 2.069 2.063 2.060 2.058 2.057 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 68.75 74.74 79.67 82.52 84.08 85.24 85.70 IMR - BOTH SEXES 36.6 17.2 4.7 3.0 2.5 2.1 2.0 136 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES rlmflr AD AND TOBAGO Projectfon (thouads) with NR'-1 by 2005 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 1160 1236 1301 1364 1428 1499 1576 1653 1725 1791 MALES 0-4 76 77 70 64 61 63 66 66 64 63 5-9 63 73 75 68 63 60 62 65 66 64 10-14 60 61 72 74 67 62 60 62 65 66 15-19 59 58 60 70 73 67 62 59 62 65 20-24 64 55 55 57 68 71 66 61 59 61 25-29 53 58 50 51 55 67 70 65 61 58 30-34 41 48 54 47 49 53 65 69 64 60 35-39 34 38 45 52 45 48 52 64 68 64 40-44 27 32 35 43 50 44 47 51 64 68 45-49 23 25 30 34 42 49 43 46 50 63 50-54 18 21 23 29 33 41 48 42 45 50 55-59 17 16 20 22 27 31 39 46 41 44 60-64 15 15 15 18 21 26 29 37 44 39 65-69 12 13 13 13 16 18 23 27 34 41 70-74 9 9 10 11 11 14 16 20 24 30 75+ 8 10 11 13 15 16 19 23 29 36 TOTAL 577 610 638 666 696 729 766 804 839 872 FEMALES 0-4 74 75 68 62 59 61 64 64 62 61 5-9 62 71 73 66 61 58 60 63 64 62 10-14 58 61 70 72 66 61 58 60 63 64 15-19 59 57 59 69 71 65 60 58 60 63 20-24 64 56 54 57 68 70 64 60 57 60 25-29 53 61 53 52 56 67 69 64 60 57 30-34 42 51 58 52 51 55 66 69 64 59 35-39 33 41 49 57 51 50 54 65 69 63 40-44 28 32 39 48 56 50 50 54 65 68 45-49 23 27 31 39 47 56 50 49 54 65 50-54 20 22 26 31 38 46 55 49 49 53 55-59 l8 19 21 25 30 37 46 54 48 48 60-64 14 17 l8 20 24 29 36 44 52 47 65-69 12 13 15 17 19 23 27 34 42 51 70-74 11 10 11 14 15 17 21 25 32 40 75+ 13 15 16 17 21 25 30 36 45 58 TOTAL 583 626 663 698 732 770 810 849 886 919 BIRTH RATE 26.7 22.7 19.7 17.7 17.3 17.1 16.3 15.2 14.1 DEATH RATE 6.6 6.1 5.8 5.6 5.7 5.8 6.0 6.2 6.6 RATE OF NAT. INC. 2.01 1.65 1.39 1.21 1.16 1.13 1.03 .89 .76 NET MIGRATION RATE -7.3 -6.3 -4.5 -2.9 -1.8 -1.3 -.8 -4 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.28 1.02 .94 .92 .98 1.00 .95 .85 .76 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.950 2.662 2.402 2.167 2.080 2.074 2.068 2.062 2.056 NRR 1.389 1.262 1.147 1.039 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 70.15 71.57 73.03 74.44 75.39 76.38 77.42 78.51 79.64 ecIS) - BOTH SEXES 57.91 58.89 59.98 61.08 61.82 62.60 63.42 64.28 65.18 INR - BOTH SEXES 27.9 23.1 18.9 15.4 13.2 11.0 8.8 6.6 4.4 qC5) - BOTH SEXES .0336 .0277 .0227 .0187 .0162 .0136 .0111 .0085 .0060 DEP. RATIO 64.9 65.2 63.2 56.3 49.7 46.8 47.2 49.4 52.2 55.0 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRrITRIES 137 Summary Projection for 25-Year Periods TRINDAD AM TOBAGO AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 1160 1364 1725 1982 2083 2121 2143 2154 MALES 0-4 76 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 5-9 63 68 66 64 64 64 64 64 10-14 60 74 65 63 63 63 64 64 15-19 59 70 62 62 63 64 64 64 20-24 64 57 59 62 64 64 63 63 25-29 53 51 61 64 64 63 63 63 30-34 41 47 64 65 64 63 63 63 35-39 34 52 68 64 62 63 63 63 40-44 27 43 64 60 61 62 63 63 45-49 23 34 50 57 61 62 62 62 50-54 18 29 45 58 62 62 6! 62 55-59 17 22 41 60 62 61 61 61 60-64 15 18 44 62 59 58 59 59 65-69 12 13 34 55 53 55 57 57 70-74 9 11 24 40 47 52 54 54 75+ 8 13 29 67 107 118 124 127 TOTAL 577 666 839 969 1019 1038 1048 1053 FEMALES 0-4 74 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 5-9 62 66 64 62 61 61 61 62 10-14 58 72 63 61 61 61 62 62 15-19 59 69 60 60 61 62 62 62 20-24 64 57 57 61 62 62 62 61 25-29 53 52 60 62 62 62 61 61 30-34 42 52 64 63 62 61 61 61 35-39 33 57 69 63 61 61 61 61 40-44 28 48 65 59 60 61. 61 61 45-49 23 39 54 57 60 61 61 61 50-54 20 31 49 58 61 61 61 61 55-59 18 25 48 62 62 61 61 61 60-64 14 20 52 66 61 60 60 60 65-69 12 17 42 61 57 58 59 60 70-74 11 14 32 48 53 57 59 59 75+ 13 17 45 108 158 172 181 185 TOTAL 583 698 886 1014 1063 1083 1095 1101 BIRTH RATE 22.9 16.7 13.4 12.3 11.9 11.8 11.7 DEATH RATE 6.2 5.9 7.9 10.3 11.2 11.4 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE -6.0 -1.4 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.08 .94 .56 .20 .07 .04 .02 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.679 2.089 2.053 2.047 2.045 2.043 2.042 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 71.63 76.53 80.86 83.19 84.49 85.45 85.84 IMR - BOTH SEXES 23.6 11.0 3.8 2.8 2.4 2.1 2.0 138 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES UNIrED STATES OF AMIERICA Projectfon (thousands) with NRR=1 by 2030 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 239279 249975 261923 272793 282513 291291 299600 307530 314329 319345 MALES 0-4 9230 9637 10090 9728 9529 9606 9844 10035 10051 9960 5-9 8608 9340 9759 10200 9816 9592 9645 9869 10043 10041 10-14 8762 8688 9431 9843 10267 9865 9625 9668 9880 10041 15-19 9477 8833 8m 9506 9902 10307 9889 9640 9671 9870 20-24 10704 9624 8998 8917 9617 9976 10346 9911 9639 9646 25-29 11002 10902 9844 9191 9069 9717 10029 10371 9904 9599 30-34 10164 11160 11076 10000 9315 9152 9759 10047 10360 9866 35-39 8793 10257 11262 11165 10071 9361 9170 9758 10025 10316 40-44 6910 8813 10279 11271 11164 10060 9336 9137 9708 9960 45-49 5685 6860 8749 10199 11181 11070 9973 9257 9056 9619 50-54 5283 5557 6719 8577 10009 10975 10871 9801 9102 8910 55-59 5380 5057 5345 6485 8303 9702 10654 10571 9546 8880 60-64 5120 5003 4740 5044 6157 7907 9270 10212 10166 9211 65-69 4254 4558 4507 4316 4640 5696 7357 8674 9611 9623 70-74 3213 3522 3846 3869 3767 4089 5068 6609 7866 8799 75+ 4061 4314 4887 5615 6175 6462 6947 8162 10358 12965 TOTAL 116643 122126 128304 133927 138983 143537 147783 151724 154986 157305 FEMALES 0-4 8807 9170 9600 9253 9061 9131 9355 9535 9547 9459 5-9 8213 8925 9301 9717 9347 9130 9176 9385 9546 9541 10-14 8341 8298 9021 9389 9788 9399 9165 9201 9397 9545 15-19 9110 8431 8403 9119 9467 9845 9437 9192 9213 9394 20-24 10503 9280 8628 8590 9268 9576 9916 9487 9213 9206 25-29 10881 10699 9510 8847 8764 9394 9658 9971 9509 9202 30-34 10178 11020 10864 9669 8974 8856 9451 9695 9982 9495 35-39 8969 10255 11113 10954 9741 9025 8885 9467 9694 9964 40-44 7167 8986 10278 11133 10966 9747 9022 8877 9450 9668 45-49 5969 7139 8953 10241 11091 10923 9708 8988 8842 9411 50-54 5660 5906 7070 8871 10152 10998 10834 9635 8923 8782 55-59 5957 5553 5804 6959 8744 10015 10859 10707 9531 8835 60-64 5877 5776 5400 5661 6806 8565 9827 10673 10542 9400 65-69 5176 5587 5519 5188 5465 6589 8316 9570 10424 10328 70-74 4352 4738 5161 5148 4881 5169 6265 7950 9197 10071 75+ 7474 8086 8992 10127 11014 11392 11941 13474 16332 19740 TOTAL 122636 127849 133619 138866 143530 147754 151817 155806 159343 162040 BIRTH RATE 15.4 15.4 14.2 13.4 13.1 13.0 12.9 12.7 12.3 DEATH RATE 8.9 8.4 8.1 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.2 8.5 9.1 RATE OF NAT. INC. .65 .70 .61 .54 .50 .49 .47 .41 .32 NET MIGRATION RATE 2.2 2.3 2.0 1.6 1.1 .8 .5 .3 .0 GROWTH RATE .87 .93 .81 .70 .61 .56 .52 .44 .32 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.880 2.000 2.009 2.018 2.027 2.037 2.046 2.055 2.064 NRR .899 .957 .964 .970 .975 .981 .987 .992 .998 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 75.39 76.45 77.53 78.56 79.23 79.92 80.63 81.37 82.13 e15) - BOTH SEXES 61.53 62.48 63.45 64.37 64.96 65.57 66.20 66.85 67.52 IMR - BOTH SEXES 10.3 9.0 7.8 6.7 6.0 5.3 4.6 3.9 3.1 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0128 .0113 .0099 .0087 .0078 .0070 .0061 .0053 .0044 DEP. RATIO 50.7 51.4 52.5 51.2 49.7 49.3 52.2 57.4 63.6 68.8 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 139 Sumnary ProJection for 25-Year Perlods UNM D STATES OF AMERICA AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 239279 272793 314329 324099 328000 330940 332998 334085 MALES 0-4 9230 9728 10051 9974 9938 9932 9934 9935 5-9 8608 10200 10043 9925 9913 9923 9928 9929 10-14 8762 9843 9880 9867 9907 9926 9929 9928 15-19 9477 9506 9671 9860 9921 9929 9925 9922 20-24 10704 8917 9639 9918 9932 9915 9906 9905 25-29 11002 9191 9904 9972 9907 9878 9876 9879 30-34 10164 10000 10360 993b 9835 9832 9847 9855 35-39 8793 11165 10025 9739 9747 9799 9825 9832 40-44 6910 11271 9708 9488 9702 9779 9798 9798 45-49 5685 10199 9056 9401 9711 9747 9744 9742 50-54 5283 8577 9102 9559 9677 9645 9636 9643 55-59 5380 6485 9546 9817 9497 9446 9472 9499 60-64 5120 5044 10166 9238 9090 9167 9258 9303 65-69 4254 4316 9611 8569 8536 8828 8960 9006 70-74 3213 3869 7866 7452 7968 8375 8495 8537 75+ 4061 5615 10358 16780 18332 19039 19637 20004 TOTAL 116643 133927 154986 159496 161614 163160 164170 164716 FEMALES 0-4 8807 9253 9547 9473 9438 9432 9434 9435 5-9 8213 9717 9546 9429 9418 9426 9431 9431 10-14 8341 9389 9397 9374 9413 9430 9433 9432 15-19 9110 9119 9213 9373 9431 9438 9433 9430 20-24 10503 8590 9213 9444 9455 9438 9428 9426 25-29 10881 8847 9509 9523 9454 9423 9419 9422 30-34 10178 9669 9982 9517 9407 9401 9412 9418 35-39 8969 10954 9694 9354 9344 9389 9410 9415 40-44 7167 11133 9450 9153 9329 9396 9409 9408 45-49 5969 10241 8842 9128 9382 9407 9398 9392 50-54 5660 8871 8923 9380 9430 9382 9364 9366 55-59 5957 6959 9531 9780 9377 9300 9313 9332 60-64 5877 5661 10542 9405 9152 9187 9259 9293 65-69 5176 5188 10424 9035 8862 9099 9205 9237 70-74 4352 5148 9197 8251 8685 9027 9113 9133 75+ 7474 10127 16332 24985 26810 27603 28367 28799 TOTAL 122636 138866 159343 164603 166387 167780 168828 169370 BIRTH RATE 15.0 13.0 12.1 11.9 11.8 11.7 11.6 DEATH RATE 8.5 8.2 10.9 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE 2.2 .8 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .87 .57 .12 .05 .04 .02 .01 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.970 2.037 2.065 2.063 2.062 2.061 2.061 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 76.49 79.98 82.90 84.39 85.20 85.79 86.04 INR - BOTH SEXES 9.0 5.3 2.9 2.4 2.1 2.0 1.9 140 COUNlTIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES URUGUAY ProJection (thousands) with NRR=1 by 1995 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 3008 3094 3177 3274 3390 3501 3603 3697 3788 3877 MALES 0-4 134 132 124 126 131 133 131 129 128 129 5-9 143 132 131 123 126 131 132 131 129 128 10-14 135 142 131 130 123 126 131 132 131 129 15-19 118 133 140 130 130 123 125 130 132 131 20-24 115 115 131 139 129 129 122 125 130 132 25-29 107 111 112 129 138 129 128 122 124 129 30.34 97 103 109 111 129 137 128 128 121 124 35-39 89 94 101 107 110 128 137 127 127 121 40-44 84 86 92 100 106 109 127 135 126 126 45-49 80 81 84 90 98 105 107 125 134 125 50-54 84 77 79 82 88 96 102 105 123 131 55-59 78 79 73 75 78 84 92 99 102 119 60-64 66 71 n 67 70 74 80 88 94 98 65-69 50 57 62 64 60 63 67 73 81 88 70-74 41 40 47 52 54 51 55 59 65 73 75+ 48 52 55 62 71 79 83 88 97 109 TOTAL 1469 1508 1544 1588 1642 1696 1747 1796 1843 1890 FEMALES 0-4 129 127 119 121 125 127 125 123 122 123 5-9 138 127 125 118 120 125 127 125 123 122 10-14 129 137 126 125 118 120 125 127 125 123 15-19 116 128 136 126 125 118 120 125 126 125 20-24 116 114 126 135 126 125 118 120 125 126 25-29 111 114 112 125 135 125 124 118 120 125 30-34 99 109 112 111 125 134 125 124 117 120 35-39 94 97 108 111 111 125 134 125 124 117 40-44 88 93 96 107 111 110 124 134 124 124 45-49 85 87 92 95 106 110 110 123 133 124 50-54 87 83 85 90 94 105 109 109 122 132 55-59 85 85 81 84 89 93 104 108 108 121 60-64 73 81 82 79 82 87 91 102 106 106 65-69 59 68 77 78 76 79 84 89 99 103 70-74 54 52 62 71 73 n 75 80 85 95 75+ 76 85 93 110 132 150 161 171 185 200 TOTAL 1539 1586 1633 1686 1748 I1u5 1856 1901 1945 1987 BIRTH RATE 17.6 15.9 15.6 15.6 15.2 14.6 13.9 13.5 13.2 DEATH RATE 10.0 9.3 9.0 8.6 8.8 8.8 8.8 8.6 8.6 RATE OF NAT. INC. .75 .66 .66 .70 .65 .58 .52 .48 .46 NET MIGRATION RATE -1.9 -1.3 -.6 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROUTH RATE .56 .53 .60 .70 .65 .58 .52 .48 .46 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.430 2.188 2.098 2.089 2.084 2.079 2.075 2.070 2.065 NRR 1.143 1.037 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 oCO) - BOTH SEXES 71.98 73.65 75.22 76.67 77.48 78.32 79.19 80.10 81.03 eCIS) - BOTH SEXES 59.40 60.60 61.82 63.00 63.65 64.32 65.01 65.74 66.49 IMR - BOTH SEXES 24.0 18.4 14.6 11.7 10.1 8.5 6.9 5.3 3.7 q(S) - BOTH SEXES .0289 .0226 .0180 .0145 .0126 .0108 .0089 .0070 .0051 DEP. RATIO 60.7 59.3 57.0 56.3 55.5 55.9 56.1 56.0 56.6 57.9 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 141 Suam ry Projection for 25-Year Periods URUGUAY AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 3008 3274 378 4140 4250 4310 4347 4366 KALES 0-4 134 126 128 129 130 130 130 130 5.9 143 123 129 130 130 130 130 130 10-14 135 130 131 130 130 130 130 130 15-19 118 130 132 130 129 129 130 130 20-24 115 139 130 128 129 129 129 129 25-29 107 129 124 127 128 129 129 129 30-34 97 111 121 127 129 129 129 129 35-39 89 107 127 129 129 128 128 128 40-44 84 100 126 129 128 127 128 128 45-49 80 90 134 126 125 126 127 127 50-54 84 82 123 119 123 125 126 126 55-59 78 75 102 114 121 123 124 124 60-64 66 67 94 116 119 121 121 121 65-69 50 64 81 109 115 115 116 117 70-74 41 52 65 107 105 107 109 111 75+ 48 62 97 175 215 238 252 259 TOTAL 1469 1588 1843 2026 2085 2117 2137 2147 FEMALES 0-4 129 121 122 123 124 124 124 124 5-9 138 118 123 124 124 124 124 124 10-14 129 125 125 124 124 124 124 124 15-19 116 126 126 124 123 123 124 124 20-24 116 135 125 123 123 123 124 124 25-29 111 125 120 122 123 124 124 124 30-34 99 111 117 123 124 124 124 123 35-39 94 111 124 125 124 123 123 123 40-44 88 107 124 126 123 123 123 123 45-49 85 95 133 124 122 122 123 123 50-54 87 90 122 118 121 122 123 123 55-59 85 84 108 115 121 122 122 122 60-64 73 79 106 120 122 122 122 122 65-69 59 78 99 118 121 120 120 121 70-74 54 71 85 123 117 117 118 119 75+ 76 110 185 282 330 356 370 377 TOTAL 1539 1686 1945 2113 2165 2194 2211 2219 BIRTH RATE 16.3 14.5 12.8 12.1 11.9 11.7 11.7 DEATH RATE 9.4 8.7 9.3 11.0 11.3 11.4 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE -1.3 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROUTH RATE .56 .58 .36 .11 .06 .03 .02 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.233 2.080 2.063 2.060 2.058 2.057 2.057 etO) - BOTH SEXES 73.64 78.40 82.00 83.86 84.88 85.63 85.94 IMR - BOTH SEXES 19.1 8.6 3.3 2.5 2.2 2.0 2.0 142 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES VENEZUEIA ProJection (thousands) with NRR=I by 2010 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 17317 19738 22108 24358 26456 28367 30241 32124 33929 35587 MALES 0-4 1306 1393 1404 1377 1338 1286 1310 1360 1371 1353 5-9 1159 1301 1387 1398 1371 1333 1282 1307 1357 1368 10-14 1022 1157 1299 1385 1395 1368 1330 1280 1305 1356 15-19 951 1020 1154 1294 1380 1391 1364 1327 1277 1303 20-24 852 950 1017 1149 1288 1373 1383 1357 1321 1272 25-29 727 853 947 1012 1143 1280 1364 1375 1350 1314 30-34 630 728 849 942 1006 1135 1271 1355 1367 1343 35-39 516 628 723 843 935 998 1126 1262 1347 1359 40-44 383 512 622 715 834 925 988 1115 1251 1336 45-49 302 376 502 610 701 819 909 972 1099 1234 50-54 258 292 363 485 590 680 795 885 949 1075 55-59 214 243 275 343 459 560 648 762 851 916 60-64 160 195 221 251 314 422 519 606 716 806 65-69 113 138 168 192 219 277 377 468 550 657 70-74 75 90 110 136 157 182 232 320 401 478 75+ 81 88 103 128 163 200 240 305 415 550 TOTAL 8751 9St5 11145 12260 13293 14227 15140 16055 16927 17721 FEMALES 0-4 1254 1339 1348 1320 1282 1231 1253 1300 1309 1291 5-9 1115 1251 1335 1344 1317 1278 1228 1251 1298 1307 10-14 985 1115 1250 1334 1343 1315 1277 1227 1250 1297 15-19 920 985 1114 1249 1333 1341 1314 1276 1226 1249 20-24 827 921 986 1114 1248 1330 1339 1311 1274 1224 25-29 709 829 922 985 1113 1245 1327 1336 1309 1271 30-34 615 710 829 921 983 1110 1242 1324 1333 1306 35-39 502 614 708 826 918 979 1105 1237 1319 1329 40-44 377 499 610 703 821 912 974 1099 1231 1314 45-49 302 373 493 603 696 813 904 966 1091 1223 50-54 259 296 366 485 594 685 801 892 954 1080 55-59 216 251 288 356 473 580 671 786 876 939 60-64 167 206 240 275 342 456 561 651 764 855 65-69 124 154 190 223 258 322 431 534 623 736 70-74 88 107 134 167 199 232 293 396 495 583 75+ 108 125 150 190 246 310 382 485 650 861 TOTAL 8566 9774 10964 12098 13163 14139 15100 16069 17002 17866 BIRTH RATE 30.7 27.3 23.9 21.2 18.8 17.8 17.3 16.4 15.3 DEATH RATE 5.3 5.1 4.9 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.2 5.5 5.8 RATE OF NAT. INC. 2.54 2.22 1.91 1.64 1.39 1.28 1.21 1.09 .95 NET MIGRATION RATE .8 .5 .3 .2 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.62 2.27 1.94 1.65 1.39 1.28 1.21 1.09 .95 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.770 3.355 2.924 2.549 2.222 2.103 2.093 2.084 2.074 NRR 1.745 1.561 1.370 1.201 1.052 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 69.66 70.42 71.45 72.60 73.67 74.78 75.93 77.14 78.39 et15) - BOTH SEXES 58.09 58.55 59.18 59.95 60.69 61.47 62.29 63.15 64.05 IMR - BOTH SEXES 36.0 32.5 27.7 23.0 19.5 16.0 12.5 8.9 5.4 qt5) - BOTH SEXES .0427 .0387 .0331 .0278 .0237 .0196 .0154 .0113 .0072 DEP. RATIO 75.1 71.9 67.1 60.6 54.1 49.0 46.8 46.7 48.1 49.9 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 143 Surmary Projection for 25-Year Periods VENEZUELA AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 17317 24358 33929 40554 43299 44197 44734 45004 MALES 0-4 1306 1377 1371 1348 1341 1340 1341 1341 5-9 1159 1398 1357 1336 1337 1339 1340 1340 10-14 1022 1385 1305 1325 1337 1341 1341 1340 15-19 951 1294 1277 1328 1342 1342 1340 1339 20-24 852 1149 1321 1345 1344 1339 1337 1337 25-29 727 1012 1350 1355 1337 1332 1332 1333 30-34 630 942 1367 1337 1321 1324 1328 1330 35-39 516 843 1347 1280 1306 1320 1326 1327 40-44 383 715 1251 1245 1302 1319 1322 1322 45-49 302 610 1099 1279 1310 1315 1314 1314 50-54 258 485 949 1288 1306 1297 1296 1299 55-59 214 343 851 1273 1264 1261 1272 1279 60-64 160 251 716 1207 1175 1217 1241 1252 65-69 113 192 550 1055 1092 1169 1200 1210 70-74 75 136 401 839 1043 1106 1134 1143 75+ 81 128 415 1225 2153 2392 2550 2637 TOTAL 8751 12260 16927 20065 21311 21754 22015 22145 FEMALES 0-4 1254 1320 1309 1285 1278 1278 1278 1279 5-9 1115 1344 1298 1274 1275 1277 1278 1278 10-14 985 1334 1250 1265 1275 1278 1279 1278 15-19 920 1249 1226 1269 1280 1280 1279 1278 20-24 827 1114 1274 1287 1285 1279 1277 1277 25-29 709 985 1309 1303 1282 1276 1276 1277 30-34 615 921 1333 1291 1270 1272 1275 1276 35-39 502 826 1319 1241 1258 1271 1275 1276 40-44 377 703 1231 1213 1260 1274 1275 1275 45-49 302 603 1091 1256 1275 1276 1273 1272 50-54 259 485 954 1281 1283 1269 1266 1268 55-59 216 356 876 1290 1262 1250 1257 1263 60-64 167 275 764 1257 1201 1230 1249 1257 65-69 124 223 623 1145 1156 1218 1242 1249 70-74 88 167 495 973 1165 1210 1227 1232 75+ 108 190 650 1859 3184 3506 3712 3826 TOTAL 8566 12098 17002 20488 21988 22443 22719 22859 BIRTH RATE 27.0 18.2 14.0 12.5 12.0 11.8 11.7 DEATH RATE 5.1 5.1 7.0 9.9 11.2 11.3 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE .5 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.27 1.33 .71 .26 .08 .05 .02 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.314 2.197 2.070 2.063 2.060 2.058 2.057 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 70.58 74.97 79.83 82.59 84.11 85.24 85.69 IMR - BOTH SEXES 32.1 15.9 4.5 3.0 2.5 2.1 2.0 144 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES VIRGIN ISLANDS (U.S.) Projection (thousands) with NRR=1 by 1995 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 107 110 116 123 132 140 147 153 159 164 MALES 0-4 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5-9 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 10-14 7 6 6 6 5 5 6 6 6 6 15-19 6 7 6 6 6 5 5 6 6 6 20-24 3 5 7 6 6 6 5 5 6 6 25-29 3 3 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 30-34 4 3 3 5 6 6 5 6 5 5 35-39 4 4 3 2 5 6 6 5 6 5 40-44 3 4 4 3 2 5 6 6 5 6 45-49 2 3 3 4 2 2 5 6 6 5 50-54 2 2 3 3 4 2 2 5 6 6 55-59 2 2 2 2 3 3 2 2 5 6 60-64 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 2 2 4 65-69 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 2 2 70-74 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 3 2 75+ 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 4 4 TOTAL 51 53 56 59 63 67 71 74 77 80 FEMALES 0-4 6 6 5 5 6 6 6 5 5 5 5-9 6 6 6 5 5 6 6 5 5 5 10-14 7 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 5 5 15-19 6 7 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 5 20-24 4 5 7 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 25-29 4 3 5 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 30-34 5 4 3 5 6 6 5 5 5 5 35-39 4 5 4 3 5 6 6 5 5 5 40-44 3 4 5 4 3 5 6 6 5 5 45-49 2 3 4 4 4 3 5 6 6 5 50-54 2 2 3 4 4 3 3 5 6 6 55-59 2 2 2 3 4 4 3 3 5 6 60-64 1 2 2 2 3 4 4 3 3 5 65-69 1 1 2 2 2 3 4 4 3 3 70-74 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 4 3 75+ 1 1 1 2 3 3 4 5 6 8 TOTAL 56 58 60 64 68 72 76 79 82 85 BIRTH RATE 22.3 18.5 18.4 18.3 17.3 15.9 14.6 14.0 13.7 DEATH RATE 5.0 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.4 5.7 6.1 6.6 7.3 RATE OF NAT. INC. 1.73 1.37 1.35 1.33 1.19 1.02 .86 .74 .65 NET MIGRATION RATE -11.0 -3.5 -1.7 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .62 1.01 1.18 1.33 1.19 1.02 .86 .74 .65 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.580 2.225 2.097 2.090 2.084 2.079 2.074 2.069 2.064 NRR 1.221 1.057 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 73.05 74.78 76.34 77.75 78.49 79.25 80.03 80.83 81.65 e(15) - BOTH SEXES 60.04 61.54 62.85 64.05 64.62 65.20 65.80 66.43 67.07 IMR - BOTH SEXES 19.4 16.7 14.0 11.6 10.0 8.3 6.7 5.0 3.4 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0237 .0204 .0172 .0144 .0124 .0105 .0086 .0066 .0047 DEP. RATIO 68.4 59.3 52.6 49.8 48.7 50.9 53.4 54.9 52.7 50.5 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES. AND TERRITORIES 145 Snmary Projection for 25-Year Periods VIRGIN ISLANDS (U.S.) AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 107 123 159 181 187 189 191 192 MALES 0-4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5-9 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 10-14 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 15-19 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 20-24 3 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 25-29 3 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 30-34 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 35-39 4 2 6 6 6 6 6 6 40-44 3 3 5 6 6 6 6 6 45-49 2 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 50-54 2 3 6 5 5 5 6 6 55-59 2 2 5 5 5 5 5 5 60-64 1 2 2 5 5 5 5 5 65-69 1 1 2 5 5 5 5 5 70-74 1 1 3 5 5 5 5 5 75+ 1 1 4 8 10 11 11 11 TOTAL 51 59 77 89 92 93 94 94 FEMALES 0-4 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5-9 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 10-14 7 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 15-19 6 5 6 5 5 5 5 5 20-24 4 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 25-29 4 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 30-34 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 35-39 4 3 5 5 5 5 5 5 40-44 3 4 5 6 5 5 5 5 45-49 2 4 6 6 5 5 5 5 50-54 2 4 6 5 5 5 5 5 55-59 2 3 5 5 5 5 5 5 60-64 1 2 3 5 5 5 5 5 65-69 1 2 3 5 5 5 5 5 70-74 1 2 4 5 5 5 5 5 75+ 1 2 6 12 14 15 16 16 TOTAL 56 64 82 92 95 96 97 97 BIRTH RATE 19.7 15.9 13.1 12.1 11.8 11.7 11.7 DEATH RATE 4.9 5.8 8.0 10.9 11.3 11.4 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE -5.3 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .94 1.03 .51 .12 .05 .03 .02 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.294 2.080 2.063 2.060 2.058 2.057 2.057 e(0) - BOTH SEXES 74.77 79.35 82.52 84.16 85.06 85.72 86.00 IMR - BOTH SEXES 16.8 8.4 3.0 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.9 Policy Research Working Paper Series Contact Title Author Date for paper WPS1 019 How Effective are Directed Credit Anita M. Schwarz November 1992 M. Raggambi Policies in the United States? 37664 A Literature Survey WPS1020 Another Look at Population and Nancy Birdsall November 1992 S. Rothschild and Global Warming 37460 WPS1021 Measuring Welfare Changes from Jonathan R. Coleman November 1992 D. Gustafson Commodity Price Stabilization in Chris Jones 33714 Small Open Economies WPS1022 A New Approach to Evaluating Trade James E. Anderson November 1992 M. T. Sanchez Policy J. Peter Neary 33731 WPS1023 Tariff Index Theory James E. Anderson November 1992 M. T. Sanchez 33731 WPS1024 An Exact Approach for Evaluating Will Martin November 1992 D. Gustafson the Benefits from Technological Julian M. Alston 33714 Change WPS1025 Openness and Economic Kazi M. Matin November 1992 D. Ballantyne Performance in Sub-Saharan Africa: 38004 Evidence from lime-Series Cross- Country Analysis WPS1026 Financial Liberalization and Paul D. McNelis November 1992 A. Maraflon Adjustment in Chile and New Zealand Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel 31450 WPS1027 Lessons from Bank Privatization Guillermo Bames November 1992 W. Pitayatonakarn in Mexico 37664 WPS1028 Socioeconomic and Ethnic Harry Anthony Patrinos November 1992 L Longo Determinants of Grade Repetition George Psacharopoulos 39244 in Bolivia and Guatemala WPS1 029 Controlling Tropical Deforestation: Robert T. Deacon November 1992 P. Pender An Analysis of Alternative Policies 37851 WPS1030 Measuring the Effects of Urban Alan J. Krupnick November 1992 P. Pender Transportation Policies on the 37851 Environment: A Survey of Models WPS1031 Measuring the Possibilities of Robert Bacon November 1992 P. Pender Interfuel Substitution 37851 WPS1032 East Asia and Pacific Region, Eduard Bos November 1992 0. Nadora South Asia Region Population My T. Vu 31091 Projections. 1992-93 Edition Ann Levin Policy Research Working Paper Series Contact Title Author Date for paper WPS1 033 Latin America and the Caribbean My T. Vu November 1992 0. Nadora Region (and Northern America) Eduard Bos 31091 Population Projections, 1992-93 Ann Levin Edition