The World Bank Report No: ISR7988 Implementation Status & Results Kenya Electricity Expansion (P103037) Public Disclosure Copy Operation Name: Electricity Expansion (P103037) Project Stage: Implementation Seq.No: 4 Status: ARCHIVED Archive Date: 21-Jan-2013 Country: Kenya Approval FY: 2010 Product Line: IBRD/IDA Region: AFRICA Lending Instrument: Specific Investment Loan Implementing Agency(ies): Key Dates Board Approval Date 27-May-2010 Original Closing Date 30-Sep-2016 Planned Mid Term Review Date Last Archived ISR Date 29-May-2012 Effectiveness Date 01-Oct-2010 Revised Closing Date 30-Sep-2016 Actual Mid Term Review Date Project Development Objectives Project Development Objective (from Project Appraisal Document) The project has two development objectives: (a) increase the capacity, efficiency, and quality of electricity supply; and (b) expand access to electricity in urban, peri-urban, and rural areas Has the Project Development Objective been changed since Board Approval of the Project? Yes No Component(s) Component Name Component Cost Geothermal Generation 1035.00 Transmission 72.50 Distribution 272.00 Sector Institutional Development and Operational Support 11.50 Public Disclosure Copy Overall Ratings Previous Rating Current Rating Progress towards achievement of PDO Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory Overall Implementation Progress (IP) Satisfactory Satisfactory Overall Risk Rating Substantial Substantial Implementation Status Overview Progress on works contracts (generation, transmission and distribution components) is satisfactory. On the current schedule, most works contracts are anticipated to be completed on various dates between April and December 2014 i.e. comfortably before the project closing date of 31 March 2016. Of the US$330 million original credit, total commitments in awarded contracts is US$268 million (81%) and disbursement is US$58 million (17.5%). One contract award (for concrete poles) is being processed for US$7.3 million and one Page 1 of 6 The World Bank Report No: ISR7988 procurement is ongoing (Olkaria geothermal office and laboratory building – cost estimate US$7 million). Procurement for off-grid pilot projects (allocation US$8 million) is anticipated to be launched in January 2013. The cost savings are currently estimated at US$40 million approximately. Studies completed are the Cost of Service Study; Study Options for the Development of a Power Market; and Study on Grid Connection of Small Scale Renewable Energy. These have provided a number of policy support instruments such as a standard Power Purchase Agreement for renewable energy schemes up to 10MW and a computation model for tariff setting that will be used in preparing the next retail tariff schedule that will Public Disclosure Copy apply from July 1, 2013. Locations Country First Administrative Division Location Planned Actual Kenya Eastern Eastern Province Kenya Central Province Nyandarua Results Project Development Objective Indicators Indicator Name Core Unit of Measure Baseline Current End Target Direct project beneficiaries (CORE) Number Value 0.00 0.00 1425000.00 Date 30-Jun-2010 03-Dec-2012 30-Sep-2016 Comments Not yet due Cumulative People provided with access to electricity in the Number Value 0.00 0.00 1425000.00 project area (CORE) Date 03-Dec-2012 30-Sep-2016 Comments Not yet due Cumulative Rural offgrid renewable Number Value 0.00 0.00 Sub Type Date 03-Dec-2012 Breakdown Comments Not yet due Rural offgrid conventional Number Value 0.00 0.00 49.50 Sub Type Date 30-Jun-2010 03-Dec-2012 30-Sep-2016 Breakdown Comments Public Disclosure Copy Average interruptions frequency per year in the Number Value 70000.00 70000.00 51000.00 project area (CORE) Date 03-Dec-2012 30-Sep-2016 Comments Estimated Electricity losses per year in the project area Percentage Value 16.30 17.30 14.50 (CORE) Date 30-Jun-2009 03-Dec-2012 30-Sep-2016 Comments There was an increase in Annual losses losses to 17.3% in FY12 due in part to increased transfers of power between regions and Page 2 of 6 The World Bank Report No: ISR7988 to the impact of extension of the LV network in the rural electrification program. Improvement in the indicator Public Disclosure Copy is not likely until 2014 when investments under the project are commissioned (see also comments above under PDO rating) Electricity generation from renewable Gigawatt-hour Value 0.00 0.00 2057.00 generation capacity constructed under the (GWh) Date 30-Jun-2010 03-Dec-2012 30-Sep-2016 project, net Comments Not yet due Annual output Intermediate Results Indicators Indicator Name Core Unit of Measure Baseline Current End Target Cost of service study completed one year Yes/No Value No Yes Yes before 2014 tariff review is launched Date 20-Dec-2012 30-Sep-2016 Comments The Consultant has provided the final report that has been accepted by ERC. the critical element of the study is a computational model for calculation of tariffs that will be used for the revised tariff schedule from July 1, 2014 Rural Electrification Master Plan (REMP) Yes/No Value No No Yes annually updated Date 03-Dec-2012 30-Sep-2016 Comments Not yet due. Consultant has been recruited by REA to assist it in updating the Public Disclosure Copy REMP. Roadmap for implementation of the wholesale Yes/No Value No No Yes electricity market is adopted by MoE Date 03-Dec-2012 30-Sep-2016 Comments Not yet due Business electricity connections provided Number Value 0.00 0.00 15000.00 under the project (CORE) Date 03-Dec-2012 30-Sep-2016 Comments Not yet due Cumulative Agribusiness Number Value 0.00 0.00 Page 3 of 6 The World Bank Report No: ISR7988 Sub Type Date 03-Dec-2012 Breakdown Comments Not yet due Enterprises Number Value 0.00 0.00 Public Disclosure Copy Sub Type Date 03-Dec-2012 Breakdown Comments Not yet due Community (public facilities) electricity Number Value 0.00 0.00 450.00 connections provided under the project (CORE) Date 03-Dec-2012 30-Sep-2016 Comments Not yet due Trading Centers Number Value 0.00 0.00 Sub Type Date 03-Dec-2012 Breakdown Comments Not yet due Renewable energy source Number Value 0.00 0.00 Sub Type Date 03-Dec-2012 Breakdown Comments Not yet due School Number Value 0.00 0.00 Sub Type Date 03-Dec-2012 Breakdown Comments Not yet due Renewable energy source Number Value 0.00 0.00 Sub Type Date 03-Dec-2012 Breakdown Comments Not yet due Hospital Number Value 0.00 0.00 Sub Type Date 03-Dec-2012 Breakdown Comments Not yet due Renewable energy source Number Value 0.00 0.00 Sub Type Date 03-Dec-2012 Breakdown Comments Not yet due Public Disclosure Copy Community Center Number Value 0.00 0.00 Sub Type Date 03-Dec-2012 Breakdown Comments Not yet due Isolated grids constructed or rehabilitated by Kilometers Value 0.00 0.00 100.00 REA under the project Date 03-Dec-2012 30-Jun-2016 Comments No yet due Page 4 of 6 The World Bank Report No: ISR7988 Substations constructed or rehabilitated by Number Value 0.00 0.00 26.00 KPLC under the project Date 03-Dec-2012 30-Sep-2016 Comments Not yet due Cumulative Public Disclosure Copy Distribution lines constructed or rehabilitated Kilometers Value 0.00 0.00 2280.00 under the project (CORE) Date 03-Dec-2012 30-Sep-2016 Comments Not yet due Cumulative Transmission lines constructed or rehabilitated Kilometers Value 0.00 0.00 334.00 under the project (CORE) Date 30-Jun-2010 03-Dec-2012 30-Sep-2016 Comments Not yet due Cumulative Generation capacity of renewable energy Megawatt Value 0.00 0.00 280.00 (geothermal) constructed or rehabilitated under Date 30-Jun-2010 03-Dec-2012 30-Sep-2016 the project (CORE) Comments Not yet due Cumulative Data on Financial Performance (as of 19-Dec-2012) Financial Agreement(s) Key Dates Project Ln/Cr/Tf Status Approval Date Signing Date Effectiveness Date Original Closing Date Revised Closing Date P103037 IDA-47430 Effective 27-May-2010 05-Jul-2010 01-Oct-2010 30-Sep-2016 30-Sep-2016 Disbursements (in Millions) Project Ln/Cr/Tf Status Currency Original Revised Cancelled Disbursed Undisbursed % Disbursed P103037 IDA-47430 Effective XDR 217.40 217.40 0.00 39.78 177.62 18.00 Disbursement Graph Public Disclosure Copy Page 5 of 6 The World Bank Report No: ISR7988 Public Disclosure Copy Key Decisions Regarding Implementation Continuous monitoring and intense supervision has resulted in overall good project implementation. As a result, disbursement performance that was 5% at the end of FY12 is currently at 18% and is expected to reach 27% by end of FY13. A number of additional technical assistance activities were discussed and agreed with the regulator (ERC) and MoE that will support policy making and implementation. They include development of credible and reliable demand datasets for forecast models (MAED) to underpin revision of the Least Cost Power Development Plan, harmonization of the Kenyan grid code with the regional grid code and training in wind project development. Restructuring History There has been no restructuring to date. Related Projects There are no related projects. Public Disclosure Copy Page 6 of 6