OFFICIAL DOCUMENTS Supplemental Letter No. 2 BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA May 3, 2017 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development 1818 H Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20433 United States of America Re: Loan No. 8687-BA (Employment Support Project) Performance Monitoring Indicators This refers to paragraph I of Section II.A of Schedule 2 to the Loan Agreement of this date between Bosnia and Herzegovina (the Borrower) and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (the Bank) for the above-captioned Project. The Borrower hereby confirms to the Bank that the indicators set forth in the attachment to this letter shall serve as a basis for the Borrower to monitor and evaluate the progress of the Project and the achievement of the objective thereof. Very truly yours, BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA By Authorized Representative Attachment Attachment to Supplemental Letter No. 2 Bosnia and Herzegovina: Employment Support Project (FBH) PERFORMANCE MONITORING INDICATORS Project Development Objective: To increase formal private sector employment among targeted groups of registered job seekers Unit of Target Values Data Collection and Reporting Project Development Measure Baseline YR1 YR2 YR3 YR4 Frequency Data Collection Responsibil Objective Indicators Instruments ity for Data Collection 1 Number of active job NO Number 76,000 Baseline Baseline Previous Previous Annual Data on deregistration FBH PES seekers de-registering + 2.5% year + year + from the unemployment from unemployment 2.5% 2.5% registry registry because they found a formal private sector job 2 Number of registered YES, Number 5,000 (in 8,500 16,000 23,500 28,000 Annual, Data on program FBH PES job seekers placed in DLI 1 2016) cumulative participants private sector jobs through ALMPs by the end of the project 3 Percentage of ALMP NO Percentage 50 50 50 50 50 Annual; To be calculated based FBH PES, beneficiaries who on data collected MoLSP remain employed as a monitoring through the ALMP result of participation system is in monitoring system (FBH in ALMPs 12/24 place PES and tax months after administration data); to completion of the be calculated 12 and 24 program relative to months after program employment status of completion using a control group of 2 Project Development Objective: To increase formal private sector employment among targeted groups of registered job seekers Unit of Target Values Data Collection and Reporting Project Development Measure Baseline YR1 YR2 YR3 YR4 Frequency Data Collection Responsibil Objective Indicators Instruments ity for Data Collection administrative data registered job seekers control group not benefitting from ALMPs. Average to be calculated with weights assigned to each program proportionate to the number of beneficiaries. Control group will be constructed using propensity score matching. See Error! Reference source not found. in annex 4 for definition details on measurement. 3 Intermediate Outcome Indicators Target Values Data Collection and Reporting Intermediate Results Unit of YR1 YR2 YR3 YR4 Frequency Data Collection Responsibi Indicators measure Baseline and Reports Instruments lity for O Data Collection Results Area 1: Increased formal private sector job placements for targeted groups of registered job seekers through improved ALMPs 4 Cost per job created NO Percentage EUR Average Average Average Average Annual after To be calculated FBH PES, by the program after 3,000 cost per job cost per cost per cost per monitoring based on data MoLSP 12/24 months of per job for youth job for job for job for system is in collected through completion of youth retained and youth youth youth place the ALMP monitoring and disadvantaged after 12 disadvanta and and and system; to be people programs by months ged group disadvan disadvan disadvan calculated 12 and 24 type of program) programs taged taged taged months after decreases group group group program completion. programs programs program See Error! Reference decrease decrease s source not found. in s s decrease annex 4 for s definition of cost- effectiveness 5 Annual report that NO Yes/No No Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Report includes FBH PES, monitors programs report report report report monitoring of net MoLSP by various (condensed impact (defined as subgroups (age, version) the difference of gender, long-term change over time unemployed, branch between program office) and provides participants and recommendations control group) in on how to improve employment and wages. See annex 4. 4 Intermediate Outcome Indicators Target Values Data Collection and Reporting Intermediate Results B Unit of YR1 YR2 YR3 YR4 Frequency Data Collection Responsibi o Baseline Indicators measure and Reports Instruments lity for a Data Collection either targeting or design of programs 6 Number of YES Number 0 1 2 3 4 Annual, Gazette and call for FBH PES redesigned cumulative applications for programs based on (DLI programs annual report 2) recommendations to increase cost- See Error! Reference effetiveesssource not found. in annex 4 for definition of cost- effectiveness. Results Area 2: Increased formal private sector job placements for targeted groups of registered job seekers through improved job intermediation 7 Job seeker self- YES Yes/No No Yes PES database FBH PES assessment introduced (Part of DLR 3.1) 5 Intermediate Outcome Indicators Target Values Data Collection and Reporting Intermediate Results C Unit of YR1 YR2 YR3 YR4 Frequency Data Collection Responsibi Indicators measure Baseline and Reports Instruments lity for -J a Data Collection 8 Profiling YES Yes/No No Yes PES database FBH PES methodology introduced (Part of DLR 3.1) 9 Share of case NO Percentage 0 20 60 90 90 Continuous PES database FBH PES workers certified with new case management methodology 10 Number of job YES Number 0 0 10,000 15,000 30,000 Annual PES database FBH PES seekers in need of PES support with risk (DLR profile 3.2) 11 Number of job YES Number 0 0 10,000 15,000 30,000 Annual PES database FBH PES seekers in need of PES support with an (DLR individual action 3.2) plan (total and by risk category) 12 Client satisfaction of NO Percentage No Baseline +5% if +5% if In line with PES database/survey FBH PES job seekers in need baseline baseline survey years of PES support equal to equal to 6 Intermediate Outcome Indicators Target Values Data Collection and Reporting Intermediate Results Unit of YR1 YR2 YR3 YR4 Frequency Data Collection Responsibi Indicators m Baseline and Reports Instruments lity for -J a Data Collection improves over time (pilot orabove orabove or stays at high level survey) 60%; 60%; 10% if 10% if below below 60%; or 60%; stays stays above above 80% 80% 13 Employer outreach YES Yes/No No Yes Introduced FBH PES methodology (DLR in the first introduced 3.1) year of the project 14 Number of employer NO Number No Baseline +15% +10% Annual (in PES database FBH PES contacts increases relation to previous year) 15 Number of vacancies YES Number No Baseline +5% +10% Annual (in PES database FBH PES collected increases relation to (DLR baseline) 3.6) 7 Intermediate Outcome Indicators Target Values Data Collection and Reporting Intermediate Results $ Unit of YR1 YR2 YR3 YR4 Frequency Data Collection Responsibi Indicators lmeasure and Reports Instruments lity for -J a Data Collection 16 Number of collected YES Number No Baseline +5% +15% Annual (in PES database FBH PES vacancies filled with relation to registered job (DLR baseline) seekers increases 3.7) 17 Functionalities of NO Yes/No No No Yes Adjusted in FBH PES multiple databases 3rd year of of registered project** unemployed are adjusted 18 Improved YES Yes/No No Yes No No No Introduced FBH PES monitoring system in the first of ALMPs (by (DLR year of the program) introduced 4.1) project 19 Average and NO No Baseline Annual, FBH PES, minimum compared MoLSP performance of to baseline employment services improves (based on composite index in annex 6) 20 Occupational survey NO Yes/No No Yes No Yes No Every other Survey FBH PES conducted year 8 Intermediate Outcome Indicators Target Values Data Collection and Reporting Intermediate Results 3 Unit of YR1 YR2 YR3 YR4 Frequency Data Collection Responsibi Indicators 0 measure Baseline and Reports Instruments lity for -J a Data Collection 21 Report/analysis on YES Yes/No No No Yes No Yes Every other Occupational survey; FBH PES labor market trends year LFS; STEP surveys; introduced (DLR administrative data 4.2) 22 Online jobs portal in YES Yes/No No No No No Yes Occupational survey; FBH PES place with labor LFS; STEP surveys; market trends (DLR administrative data published 4.3) Project management and implementation 23 Project NO Yes/No No Yes Yes Yes Yes Semiannual MIS reports and PMU of implementation MIS reports project management MoLSP progress report reports Note: **To be determined if first or second year. 9 Employment Support Project (RS) Project Development Objective: To increase formal private sector employment among targeted groups of registered job seekers Target Values Data Collection and Reporting Project Development W Unit of Frequency Data Collection Responsibi Objective Indicators m Baseline YR2 YR3 YR4 and Instruments lity for Objetiv F.maueYR I a Reports Data Collection Number of active job NO Number Around Baseline Previous Previous Previous Annual Data on deregistration RS PES seekers de-registering 26,000 in + 2.5% year + year + year + compared from the from the 2015 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% to 2016 unemployment registry 1 unemployment registry baseline (cross-check with tax because they found a records and verify formal private sector word of mouth) job Number of registered YES Number 4,000 (in 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 Annual Data on program RS PES job seekers placed (DLR 2016)** participants (youth and 1.1, disadvantaged groups) 1.2, in private sector jobs 1.3, through ALMPs by the 1.4) 2 end of the project (total, by target group (minimum target for one of youth, women, long-term unemployment) Percentage of ALMP NO Percentage 50 50 50 50 50 Annual; To be calculated based RS PES, 3 beneficiaries who monitoring on data collected MoLVA remain employed as a through the ALMP result of participation in monitoring system (RS 10 Project Development Objective: To increase formal private sector employment among targeted groups of registered job seekers Target Values Data Collection and Reporting Project Development c Unit of Frequency Data Collection Responsibi Objective Indicators Baseline YR2 YR3 YR4 and Instruments lity for a Reports Data Collection ALMPs 6/12/24 months system is in PES and tax after completion of the place administration data program relative to [infer wages from employment status of contributions]); to be administrative data calculated 6, 12, and 24 control group months after program completion using a (By program: TBC) control group of registered job seekers not benefitting from ALMPs. Average to be calculated with weights assigned to each program proportionate to the number of beneficiaries. Control group will be constructed using propensity score matching. See Error! Reference source not found. in annex 4 for definition details on measurement. Note: **Was 2,800 in 2015. 11 Intermediate Results indicators Target Values Data Collection and Reporting Intermediate Results Unit of I Baseline YR1 YR2 YR3 YR4 Frequenc Data Collection Responsibilit Indicators measure y and Instruments y for Data Reports Collection Results Area 1: Increased formal private sector job placements for targeted groups of registered job seekers through improved ALMPs Average cost per job DLI 1 IS Percentage EUR Average Average Average Average Annual To be calculated RS PES, created by program AN 6,000 cost per cost per cost per cost per after based on data MoLVA after 12/24 months of INPUT per job job for job for job for job for monitorin collected through completion of after 12 youth youth youth youth and g system the ALMP program for youth months and and and disadvanta is in place monitoring system; and disadvantaged disadvant disadvan disadvan ged group to be calculated 12 4 group programs aged taged taged programs and 24 months group group group decreases after program (by type of program programs program program completion. See decrease s s Errori Reference s decrease decrease source not found. s s inannex4for definition of cost effectiveness Number of YES Number 0 1 1 1 1 Annual Gazette and call for RS PES redesigned programs (DLI 2) applications for based on annual programs 5 report recommendations (cost-effectiveness for 2017) 12 Intermediate Results Indicators Target Values Data Collection and Reporting intermediate Results Unit of e Baseline YR1 YR2 YR3 YR4 Frequenc Data Collection Responsibilit Indicators _ measure I y and Instruments y for Data Reports Collection Annual report that NO Yes/No No Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Report includes RS PES, monitors all programs report report report report monitoring of net MoLVA by various subgroups impact (defined as (age, gender, branch the difference of office), assesses cost- change over time 6 effectiveness, and between program provides participants and recommendations on control group) in how to improve employment and either targeting or wages. See annex 4. design of programs Results Area 2: Increased formal private sector job placements for targeted groups of registered job seekers through Improved job Intermediation 7Profiling methodology NO Yes/No No Yes Yes PIES database RS PIES introduced Share of case workers NO Percentage 0 0 20 60 90 continuou PES database RS PES certified with new s 8 case management methodology increases Numberofjob Partof Number 0 0 3,500 15,000 20,000 Annual PESdatabase RS PES seekers in need of PES DLR 3.1 csupport with risk profile increases 13 Intermediate Results Indicators Target Values Data Collection and Reporting Intermediate Results Unit of 0 Baseline YR1 YR2 YR3 YR4 Frequenc Data Collection Responsibilit Indicators measure y and Instruments y for Data a Reports Collection Number of job Part of Number 0 0 1,750 7,500 10,000 Annual PES database RS PES seekers in need of PES DLI 3.1 (TBC) (TBC) (TBC) 10 support with an individual action plan increases (total and by risk category) Employer outreach Part of YES/NO No Yes Introduce RS PES methodology DLI 3.1 d in first introduced year of project Number of employer NO Number No Baseline +5% +10% +15% Cumulativ PES database RS PES contacts increases e (in 12 relation to baseline) Number of vacancies YES, Number No Baseline +5% +10% +15% Cumulativ PES database RS PES collected increases 3.3 e (in 13 relation to baseline) Number of collected INPUT Number No Baseline +5% +10% +15% Cumulativ PES database RS PES vacancies filled with FOR e (in 14 registered job seekers 3.4 relation increases 14 Intermediate Results Indicators Target Values Data Collection and Reporting Intermediate Results c Unit of 0 Baseline YR1 YR2 YR3 YR4 Frequenc Data Collection Responsibilit Indicators measure y and Instruments y for Data Reports Collection to baseline) Redesigned central NO Yes/No No No No Yes Introduce RS PES database (LKR) for d in year case management of 3 of registered project unemployed introduced Improved monitoring YES, Yes/No No No Yes Yes Yes Already in RS PES system of ALMPs (by 4.1 place; program) introduced improved 16 in year 2 and maintaine d Average and No Yes Yes Yes Yes Annual (in RS PES, minimum relation MoLVA performance of to 17 employment services previous improves (based on year) composite index in annex 6) Online jobs matching INPUT Yes/No No No No Yes Yes ZZZRS tool in place for 4.2 15 Intermediate Results Indicators Target Values Data Collection and Reporting Intermediate Results Unit of e Baseline YR1 YR2 YR3 YR4 Frequenc Data Collection Responsibilit indicators measure I s y and Instruments y for Data Reports Collection Project management and implementation Project NO Yes/No NO Yes Yes Yes Yes (twice Semiannu MIS reports and PMU of implementation (twice) (twice) (twice) al MIS project MoLVA 19 progress report reports management reports 16