i . RESTRICTED RETURN TO Report No. WH-ZlOa REPORTIS DESK WITHIN ONE __EEK____ This report is for official use only by the Bank Group and specificaBy authorized organizations or persons. lt may not be published, quoted or cited without Dank Group authorization. The Bank Group does not accept responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the report. INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION CURRENT ECONOMIC POSITION AND PROSPECTS OF BRAZIL (in four volumes) VOLUME II STATISTICAL APPENDIX November 30, 1971 South America Department CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Currency Unit: Cruzeiro. (Prior to Ilay 15, 1970, the currency unit: was called the "novo cruzeiro" or "new cruzeiro"; the adjective was dropped in 1-fay without any change in the value.) Exchange Rates Effective November 9. 17i Selling Rates US$1.00 = Cr$5.636 Buying Rate s USl.0o = Cr$5.600 Average Excliange Rates. 1969 J970 US$1.00 NCr$4.06 Cr '4,594 US$1 million = NCr$4,060,000 Cr$4,594,000 NCr$ million US$246,305 US$2l7,675 INDEX TO STATISTICAL APPENDIX Table No. 1. AREA, POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT Population by Region 1950, 1960 and 1970 .............................. 1.1 Population, Labor Force and Employment in Selected Regions .1.2 Distribution of Employed by Hours Work Per Week in Selected Regions 1.3 Literacy Rates and Educational Attainments of Population in Selected Regions..... 1.4 2. NATIONAL ACCOUNTS National Accounts Summary 1950 and 1960-68. 2.1 National Accounts Summary 1950, 1960 and1965-70 ..2.2 National Accounts Summary 1950, 1960 and1965-706.. 2.3 Capital/Output Ratios, 1947-709 40..... .... ..... 2.4 Alternative National Accounts Projections for 1977 ..2.5 3. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS Balance of Payments Summary, 1965-70 ..... 3.1 Merchandise Exports (FOB),1965-70.. 3.2 Quantities and Prices for Principal Exports. 3.3 Merchandise Imports (FOB),1965-70.. 3.4 Balance of Payments Invisibles,1965-70. 3.5 Net Foreign Exchange Reserves of the Monetary Authorities. 3.6 Import Tax, Collections and the Value of Imports (CIF),1960-70. 3.7 The Structure of Import Duties, 1971 .................. 3.8 Exchange Rate Trends, 1965-70.. 3.9 Alternstive Projections of Merchandise Exports, 1971-77 ........3.10 Alternative Quantity and Price Projections for Exports, 1971-77. . 3.11 Alternative Projections of Merchandise Imports (FOB), 1971-77. . 3.12 Alternative Resource Gap Projections, 1971-77 .. 313 4. EXTERNAL DEBT External Debt as of December 31, 1970 .4.1 Debt Service on Debt Outstanding as of December 31, 1970 Part I - Amortization Schedules .4.2 Part II - Interest Schedules .4.2 Alternative Balance of Payments and Debt Projections, 1971-77 .4.3 Long Range Balance of Payments and Debt Projections, 1975-85 .4.4 Page 2 Table No. 5. FISCAL STATISTICS Central Government Cash Budget - Estimated Expenditure Distribution.. 5.1 Central Government Cash Budget - Estimated Expenditure Distribution.. 5.2 Central Government Revenues, 1965-71 ................................. 5.3 Federal Government Revenues, 1967-76 ................................. 5.4 Earmarked Revenues of the Central Government ........................ 5.5 Earmarked Revenues of the Central Government ........................ 5.6 Composition of Income Tax Revenues Collected at Source ............... 5.7 Trends in Income Tax Administration .................................. 5.8 Local Government Fiscal Operations ................................... 5.9 Public Sector Savings, 1968-76 ....................................... 5.10 Public Sector Investment, 1968-76 .................................... 5.11 6. MONETARY STATISTICS Summary Accounts - Monetary Authorities . . . 6.1 Summary Accounts - Commercial Banks . . . 6.2 Summary Accounts - Banking System .................................... 6.3 The Coffee Account, 1964-70 .............. 6.4 The Coffee Account, 1971-74 ........... I ............................... 6.5 The Coffee Account, 1965-74 ........................................... 6.6 Treasury Bond and Bill Account . . . 6.7 Credit Program - National Housing Bank .................... .......... 6.8 Credit Program - National Economic Development Bank . . . 6.9 Summary Accounts - Federal Savings Banks . . . 6.10 7. AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS Estimated Production, Coffee Tree Population and Planted Area, 1961-70 7.1 Registered Coffee Production, 1938-39 to 1970-71 ..................... 7.2 Value of Registered Production and Value of Crop, 1948-49 to 1969-70. 7.3 Internal Terms of Trade of Coffee .. 7.4 IBC Coffee Support Prices, 1966-72 ................................... 7.5 Minimum Coffee Export Prices, Contribution Quota and Exporter's Return, 1965-71 ..................................................... 7.6 Costs of Coffee Production Crop Year, 1969-70 . . . 7.7 Domestic Consumption and Domestic Prices Of Coffee, 1960-71 .......... 7.8 Coffee Exports, 1965-71 .............................................. 7.9 Price Relationships for Santos 4 Type Coffee, 1965-71 ................ 7.10 New York Spot Prices for Selected Coffees, 1960-70 ................... 7.11 Projected Coffee Production .......................................... 7.12 Coffee Supply and Utilizatln, 1970-74 ................................ 7.13 Agricultural Crop Production, 1963-70 ................................ 7.114 Minimum and Farm Gate Prices of Selected Commodities in Sao Paulo, 1965-70 .......................................................... 7.15 Profitability of Selected Crops in Sao Paulo, 1964-65 to 1969-70 ..... 7.16 Page 3 Table No. 8. STATISTICS ON OTHER SECTORS Value of Output in Manufacturing Industries, Selected Years, 1949-70TO 8.1 Distribution of Value of Output by Industry Branch, Selected Years, 1949-69 .......................... 8.2 Gross Value Added in Manufacturing Industries, 1949, 1958 and 1966-69. 8.3 Distribution of Value of Output by Region, 1949, 1958 and 1969 . ....... 8.4 Value Added and Employment by Size of Firm, 1958, 1966 and 1969 ....... 8.5 Number of Firms and Average Employment per Firm, 1958, 1966 and 1969.. 8.6 Fixed Investment in Manufacturing Industries, 1962-69 ................. 8.7 Value of Fixed Investment in Projects Approved by CDI, 1965-70 ........ 8.8 Foreign Direct Investment, 1956-69 ...... ............................... 8.9 Employment in Manufacturing Industries, 1949, 1958 and 1966-69 ........ 8.10 Wages and Salaries in Manufacturing Industries, 1949, 1958 and 1966-69 8.11 Percentage of Wages and Salaries in Gross Value Added, 1949, 1958 and 1966-69 ............................................................. 8.12 Wages and Salaries per Employee, 1949, 1958 and 1966-69 ............... 8.15 Gross Value Added per Employee, 1949, 1958 and 1966-69 ................ 8.14 Imports as a Percentage of the Domestic Market for Manufactured Products, 1969 ...................................................... 8.15 Competitiveness of Brazilian Automotive Industry, December 1969 ....... 8.16 Competitiveness of Brazilian Chemicals Industry, 1970 ................. 8.17 Comparison of Prices for Petrochemicals and Downstream Products ....... 8.18 Domestic Prices of Selected Steel Products - Brazil, Germany, France. 8.19 Competitiveness of Brazilian Heavy Electrical Equipment Industry, 1965 8.20 Competitiveness of Brazilian Electrical Appliances Industry, July 1970 8.21 Industrial Protection, 1966-70 ........................................ 8.22 Profitability of Manufacturing Enterprises ............................ 8.2, 9. PRICES AND WAGES Trends and Principal Indices .......................................... 9.1 Trends in Indices of Sector Prices ................... 9.2 Trends in the Minimum Wage in Selected Areas .......................... 9.3 Distribution of Workers by Weekly Wage Categories . . 9.4 10. PUBLIC SECTOR IJVESTMENT PROGRAM Investment Program - Departamento Nacional de Estradas de Rodagem (DNER) 10.1 - State Highway Departments (DERs) ................. 10.2 - Departamento Nacional de Estradas do Ferro (DNEF) 10.3 - Rede Ferroviaria Federal, S.A. (RFFSA) .10.4 - Departamento Nacional de Portos e Vias Navegaveis (DNPVN) .10.5 - Superintendencia Nacional da Marinha Mercante (SUNAMAM) ........... 10.6 - Civil Aviation Authority (DAC), Ministry of Air.. 10.7 - Electric Power (ELETROBRAS and Associated Companies) ...................................... 10.8 Page 4 Table No. - Telecommunications Sector (EMBRATEL, ECT, and CTB) ....................................... 10.9 - Education Programs of Ministry and Local Governments ............... ..... 10.10 - Education Programs of Ministry of Education Autarkies ...................... 10.11 - Health Programs of Ministry of Health.... ....... 10.12 - Health Programs of Ministry of Health Autarkies 10.13 - Water Supply and Agricultural Programs of Ministry of Interior Autarkies ................. 10.14 - Water Supply and Sewerage Programs of Local Government ..................................... 10.15 - Social Welfare Investments of Social Security Institutes ..................................... 10.16 - Petroleum and Petroleum Products (PETROBRAS) .... 10.17 - Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (CVRD) ............... 10.18 - Steel Sector (Government Enterprises) ........... 10.19 - Agricultural Sector Investment by Ministry of Agriculture .................................... 10.20 - Agricultural Sector Investment by Ministry of Agriculture Autarkies ..................... . 10.21 Table 1.1: BRAZIL - POPULATION BY REGION 1950, 1960 AND 1970 Regions Center- Extreme Center- North- North and Regions South 1/ South 2/ East 3/ east West 5/ Total Millions of Persons: 1950 13880 7879 8766 18053 3600 52178 1960 19685 11873 10987 22421 5995 70967 1970 26770 16518 13099 28136 8681 93204 Growth Rates (% p.a.): 1950-60 3.4 3.9 2.4 2.3 4.3 3.0 1960-70 3.1 3.4 1.8 2.3 3.8 2.9 URBAN CENTERS 1960 1970 Average Annual Percent Growth Metropolitan Sao Paulo 4750 8031 5.4 Metropolitan Rio 5032 7129 3.5 Belo Horizonte (Minas Gerais) 693 1233 5.9 Recife (Pernambuco) 797 1079 3.1 Salvador (Bahia) 656 1001 4.3 Porto Alegre (Rio Grande do Sul) 641 886 3.3 Fortaleza (Ceara) 515 842 5.0 Belem (Para) 402 643 4.8 Curitiba (Parana) 361 603 5.3 Brasilia (Fed. District) 142 545 14.4 Campos (State of Rio) 292 389 2.9 Goiania (Goias) 154 388 9.7 Santos (Sao Paulo) 266 314 1.7 Manaus (Amazonia) 175 303 5.6 Natal (Rio Grande do Norte) 163 270 5.2 Maceio (Alagoas) 170 269 4.7 Sao Luiz (Maranhao) 160 267 5.3 Campinas (Sao Paulo) 219 252 1.4 Teresina (Praui) 145 230 4.7 Londrina (Parana) 138 226 5.1 Joao Pessoa (Paraiba) 155 221 3.6 Pelotas (Rio Grande do Sul) 178 209 1.6 Other Cities 1572 1947 2.2 Total Population Urban Centers 17776 27277 4.4 1/ States of Rio de Janeiro, Guanabara and Sao Paulo. 2/ States of Parana, Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul. 3/ States of Minas Gerais and Espirito Santo. 4/ States of Maranhao, Piaui, Ceara, Rio Grande do Norte, Paraiba, Pernambuco, Alagoas, Sergipe and Bahia. 5/ All Others. Sources: Data for 1950 and 1960 are census results as adjusted by the Ministry of Planning (IPEA); the figures for 1970 represent the preliminary result of the 1970 census. Table 1.2: POPULATTON, LABOR FORCE AID EMPLAYMENT IN SELECTED iREGIONS (In thousands of persons) YEARS 197o-k/ 1968a/ Parana Minas Gerais Guanabara Parana Minas Gerais Guanabara Sta. Cata. and Espirito and State Sta. Cata. and Espirito and State Regions Northeast Rio G. do Sul Santo of Rio Sao Paulo Total Northeast Rio G. do Sul Santo of 2io Sao Paulo Total A. Total Population3/ 26,548 17,390 14,036 8,942 17,210 84,126 25,686 1 175 834 7 15,798 81,256 Total 14 years, and older./ 15,042 10,224 8,085 5,872 11,292 50,515 14,559 g539 5244 10,080 48,197 In LaborF, prce/ 9,424 6,664 4,710 2,951 6,546 30,295 9,019 6,988 4,455 2,803 6,027 29,292 Ocoupiedw 9,235 6,526 4,579 2,855 6,375 29,570 8,775 6,744 4,239 2,684 5,780 28,222 B. Men 14 and Olderl/ 7,010 5,085 3,913 2,784 5,661 24,453 6,937 5,310 3,678 2,599 4,957 23,481 In Labor Forcek! 6,313 4,561 3,497 2,142 4,827 21,340 6,224 4,806 3,287 2,067 4,347 20,731 Ocoupiedj/ 6,181 4,467 3,411 2,080 4,709 20,848 6,077 4,673 3,135 1,981 4,179 20,045 C. Women 14 and Oldera/ 8,032 5,139 4,172 3,088 5,631 26,062 7,622 5,303 3,861 2,807 5,123 24,716 In Labor PF roaL 3,111 2,103 1,213 809 1,719 8,955 2,795 2,182 1,168 736 1,680 8,561 Occupied/ 3,o54 2,o59 1,168 775 1,666 8,722 2,698 2,071 1,104 703 1,601 8,177 D. Distribution Oocupatione'/ 9,235 6,526 4,579 2,855 6,375 29,570 8,775 6,744 4,239 2,684 5,780 28,222 Agricultural 5,204 3,327 2,312 224 1,429 12,496 4,840 3,435 2,195 225 1,486 12,181 Vegetable Extraction 307 31 56 _ 10 404 264 33 45 4 9 355 Mineral Extraction 57 48 50 14 25 194 68 41 48 13 20 190 Hunting and Fishing 132 27 3 16 4 182 115 21 4 16 1 157 Transform. Ind. 659 582 273 419 1,595 3,528 792 641 303 435 1,298 3,469 Construction Ind. 324 192 230 230 328 1,304 281 244 184 188 277 1,174 PUb. Utilities 27 35 28 26 55 171 31 40 17 26 32 146 Commerce 656 544 338 354 725 r 2,617 590 480 242 363 605 2,280 Services 991 841 652 659 973 4,116 1,006 881 629 577 950 4,043 T and 0. 239 279 194 214 319 1,245 198 338 150 211 326 1,223 Liberal Prof. 38 57 32 48 120 295 24 49 32 36 114 255 Soc, Services 335 277 231 246 349 1,438 302 225 216 218 280 1,241 Pub. Administration 127 125 83 109 189 633 115 121 69 124 138 567 Other 139 161 97 296 254 947 149 195 105 248 244 941 E. Population 14 years + as % of Total3/ 56.7 58.8 57.6 65.7 65.6 60.0 56.7 68.2 57.2 64.6 63.8 59.3 Men Women F. Labor Force Participation RataL/ 62.7 65.2 58.3 50.3 58.0 60.0 61.9 65.8 59.1 51.8 59.8 60.8 Men 90,1 89.7 89.4 76.9 85.3 87.3 89.7 90.5 89.4 79.5 87.7 88.3 Women 38.7 40.9 29.1 26.2 30.5 34.4 36.7 41.1 30.3 26.2 32.8- 34.6 G. UInemployment Rate. 2.0 2.1 2.8 3.3 2.6 2.4 2.7 3.5 4.8 4.2 4.1 3.7 Men 2.1 2.1 2.5 2.9 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.8 6.4 4.2 3.9 3-3 Women 1.8 2.1 3.7 4.2 3,1 2.6 3.5 5.1 5.5 4.5 4.7 4.5 / As of the first quarter of the year. 3/ As of the first quarter of the year except for the Northeast in which case the data were gathered during the third quarter. t/ Estimated on the basis of trends shown by the 1950 and 1960 censuses. Preliminary results of the 1970 census show the population (in thousands) of these regions to be 28,181, 16,306, 12,877, 8,991 and 17,716 respectively. 3/ Estimated on the basis of the household survey. 3 While absolute values for labor force participation and employment would change as the result of using 1970 census data application of the sampling technique should yield roughly the sanle percentages of labor force partioipation and employment, Sourcee Pesquisa NTacional por Amostra de DomTciiiis, Fundacao TIBGE. 4 I X I Table 1.3: DISTRIBUTION OF EMPLOYED BY HOURS WORKED PER WEEK IN SELECTED REGIONS (In thousands of employed persons) 1970 I 1968 / Parana Minas Gerais Guanabara Parana Minas Gerais Guanabara North- Sta. Cata. and Espirito and State Sao North- Sta. Cata. and Espirito and State Sao east Rio G. do Sul Santo of Rio Paulo Total east Rio G. do Sul Santo of Rio Paulo Total Agrioultural 5?2O4 L2 2312 224 I429 12496 L480 84 35215 225 1486 12181 Temporarily Absent 190 119 70 3 17 399 251 176 80 6 43 556 To 14 60 22 14 1 3 100 64 50 16 4 12 146 15-34 913 335 262 14 124 1648 797 479 228 24 133 1661 35-39 184 81 36 - 29 330 203 143 67 3 35 451 40-49 3218 1184 1054 124 568 6148 2879 1035 866 103 627 5510 50 or more 639 1586 876 82 688 3871 646 1552 937 85 635 3855 Unknown - - - I 1 2 Nonagricultural , 48 .2267 2631 4946 17074 3215 T809 2044 2459 4294 16041 Temporarily Absent 297 262 162 154 286 1161 257 279 201 213 273 1223 To 14 45 25 17 9 28 124 99 48 38 27 69 281 15-34 775 339 307 277 342 2040 776 454 305 294 477 2306 35-39 142 80 48 55 107 432 179 138 75 68 134 594 40-49 2140 1585 1121 1571 3218 9635 1932 1287 820 1267 2275 7581 50 or more 632 908 612 565 965 3682 692 1101 601 57 1061 4029 Unknown - - - - - - 2 427 Total 923 6526 2855 6375 29570 77 6744 423 2684 5780 28222 Temporarily Absent 487 31 232 157 303 15508 455 281 219 316 1779 To 14 105 47 31 10 31 224 163 98 54 31 81 427 15-34 1688 674 569 291 466 3688 1573 933 533 318 610 3967 35-39 326 161 84 55 136 762 382 281 142 71 169 1045 40-49 5358 2769 2175 1695 3786 15783 4811 2322 1686 1370 2902 13091 50 or more 1271 2494 1488 647 1653 7553 1338 2653 1538 659 1696 7884 Unknown - - - - - - 2 5 16 6 29 Part-time Workers Preferring Full-time Work 792 361 223 56 143 !L7 457 235 148 104 200 114_4 To 14 38 15 12 4 9 78 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n,a. 15-19 107 31 23 4 16 181 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 20-24 235 122 70 18 21 466 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 25-29 115 52 17 7 12 203 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 30-34 204 99 80 16 63 462 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 35-39 93 42 21 7 22 185 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Total Part-time Workers 2/ 1,564 4 473 222 439 7 868 409 3o6 271 4S 1 2305 1 P irst Quarter 1970. P First Quarter 1968 except for Northeast where data refer to Third Quarter, 1968. / This refers to workers whose employment is explicitly part-time in nature. Sourcee Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicilios, Fundacao IBGE. Table i.4: LITERACY RATES AND EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENTS OF POPULATION IN SELECTED REGIONS (In thousands of people) Northeast Parana, Sta. Cata. Minas Gerais Guanabara Sao Paulo Total Rio Grande do Sul Espirito Santo State of Rio # .% of Total # % of Total # , of Total # % of Total # N of Total # 7b of Total LITERACY Total 6 years and older 21315 14306 11507 7674 14759 69561 Literate 10507 49.3 11032 77.1 7481 65.0 6387 83.2 12123 82.1 47530 68.3 Illiterate 10808 3274 4026 1287 2636 22031 Rural 12688 8635 6186 1450 4453 33412 Literate 4511 35.6 6137 71.1 3302 53.4 902 62.2 3241 72.8 18093 54.2 Illiterate 8177 2498 2884 548 1212 15319 Urban 8627 5671 5321 6224 10306 36149 Literate 5996 69.5 4895 86.3 4179 67.3 5485 88.1 8882 86.2 29437 81.4 Illiterate 2631 776 1142 739 1424 6712 EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENTS OF LITERATE POPULATION 20 YEARS AND OLDER Total 5J50 6213 3969 3967 7339 27338 Elementary 4998 85.4 5275 84.9 3321 83.7 2724 68.7 5768 78.6 22086 80.8 Secondary 750 12.8 806 13.0 567 14.3 1010 25.5 1309 17.8 4442 16.2 First Cycle 412 7.0 515 8.3 316 8.0 687 17.3 772 10.5 2702 9.9 Second Cycle 338 5.8 291 4.7 251 6.3 323 8.2 537 7.3 1740 6.3 University 102 1.7 132 2.1 81 2.0 233 5.9 262 3.6 810 3.0 Source! Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicilios, Fundacao IBGE. 1 Table 2.1: BRAZIL - RATIONAL ACCOUNTS SUIMARY 1950 AND 1960-68 (In Cr$ millions) 1950 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 I. Gross Domestic Product mp 272.1 2 4,052 6,601 11,929 23X055 36,818 53,724 71,485 99,270 1. Net Domestic Product fc 232.7 2,246 3,380 5,533 10,017 19,083 30,147 42,906 57,972 77,701 Agriculture (62.0) (508) (716) (1,284) (1,981) (4,100) (6,708) (8,186) (11,154) (13,881) Industry (54.7) (565) (855) (1,368) (2,682) (4,902) (7,360) (11,652) (15,197) (21,769) Services (176.0) (1,173) (1,809) (2,881) (5,354) (10,080) (16,079) (2,306) (31,622) (42,050) 2. Indirect Taxes 26.5 397 520 829 1,525 3,214 5,538 8,859 10,921 17,762 3. Subsidies 0.6 24 49 87 206 387 688 700 941 1,108 4. Depreciation 13.5 137 201 327 593 1,145 1,820 2,659 3,533 4,915 II. Domestic Consumption 228.9 2,284 3,286 5,365 9,748 18,516 29,113 45,089 60,685 82,736 1. Government 32.0 367 538 835 1,592 2,920 4,226 6,251 8,486 11,428 2. Private Sector 196.9 1,917 2,748 4,530 8,156 15,596 24,887 38,838 52,199 71,308 III. Domestic Savings 43.2 472 766 1,236 2,181 4,539 7,705 8,635 10,800 16,534 1. National Savings 41.4 450 742 1,174 2,110 4,388 7,311 8,127 10,013 15,627 Government (7.1) (130). (55) (-16) (37) (-43) (317) (1,581) (380) (3,173) Private Sector (gross) (34.3) (320) (687) (1,190) (2,073) (4,431) (6,994) (6,546) (9,633) (12,454) 2. Net Factor Payments and Transfers 1.8 22 24 62 71 151 394 508 787 907 IV. Resource Gap -3.7 36 22 107 51 -245 -941 -448 48 690 1. Imports 22.3 203 300 446 1,207 1,476 2,305 3,626 4,786 7,546 2. Exports 26.0 167 278 339 1,156 1,721 3,246 4,074 4,738 6,856 V. Domestic Investment 39.5 508 788 1,343 2,232 4,294 6,764 8,187 10,848 17,224 1. Fixed Investment 40.8 467 697 1,181 2,099 3,804 5,405 8,199 10,324 16,512 Government (11.6) (131) (173) (298) (488) (964) (1,617) (2,140) (3,190) (4,099) Private Sector (29.2) (336) (524) (883) (1,611) (2,840) (3,788) (6,059) (7,134) (12,413) 2. Inventories -1.3 41 91 162 134 490 1,360 -12 524 712 Source: Fundacao Getulio Vargas - Contas Nacionais do Brasil. Table 2.2: BRAZIL - NATIONAL ACCOUNTS SUMMARY 1950, 1960 AND 1965-70 (In Cr$ millions at 1969 prices) Annual Average Growth Rates 1950 1960 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1950-60 1960-65- 1965-70 (Est.) (Est.) 1, Gross Domestic Product mp 40J864 78,973 98,450 103,473 108,440 117.546 128,125 140.297 6.8 4.5 7.4 1. Agriculture 12,006 18,465 24,402 23,634 24,971 25,338 26,864 28,368 4.4 5.7 3.1 2. Industry 10,798 25,361 30,367 33,918 34,927 39,526 43,775 48,634 8.9 3.7 9-9 3. Services 18,060 35,147 43,681 45,921 48,542 52,682 57,486 63,295 6.9 4.4 7.7 II. Domestic Consumption 33,699 65,945 78,331 86,971 92,414 98,013 105,887 115,940 7.0 3 5 &-Z 1. Government 4,812 10,589 11,457 12,185 12,844 13,878 n.a. n.a. 8.2 1.6 2. Private 28,887 55,356 66,874 74,786 79,570 84,135 n.a.. n.a. 6.7 3.9 III. Domestic Savings 7,165 13,028 20,119 16,502 16,026 19.533 22,238 24.357 6.2 7,5 3.9 1 National Savings 6,731 12,328 19,688 16,000 15,250 18,664 21,304 23,027 6.2 9.8 3.2 a. Government (1,066) (3,731) (847) (4,190) (1,342) (3,771) n.a. n.a. (13.3) (-25.0) b. Private (5,665) (8,597) (18,837) (11,810) (13,908) (1 4,89 n n.a. n.a. (4.3) (17.0) 2. Net Factor Payments 423 719 757 839 1,108 962 1,060 1,348 5.5 1.0 12.2 3. - Net Transfers from ROW -11 19 326 337 332 93 126 38 . 76.0 (-40.0) a. Official (6) (79) (157) (145) (116) (72) (69) (38) * 14.7 (-25.0) b. Private -(17) -(60) (169) (192) (216) (21) (57) (-) IV. Resource Gap -1,233 1,517 -2,031 -733 246 1,274 207 1,079 1. Imports 6,761 8,287 5,568 7,255 8,094 10,035 10,678 12,845 2.1 -7.5 18.2 2. - Exports 7,994 6,770 7,599 7,988 7,848 8,761 10,471 11,766 -1.5 2.3 9.1 V. Domestic Investment 5.932 14,545 18,088 15,769 16.272 20.807 22,445 25,436 9.4 4.5 7.t 1. Fixed Investment 6,127 13,373 14,452 15,792 15,486 19,947 21,942 25,233 8.1 1.6 11.8 a. Government (1,742) (3,743) (4,323) (4,122) (4,806) (4,952) n.a. n.a. (8.0) (2.9) b. Private (4,385) (9,630) (10,129) (11,670) (10,680) (14,995) n.a. n.a. (8.2) (1.0) 2. Inventories -195 1,172 3,636 -24 786 860 503 203 . (26.0) Reciprocal of GDP deflators:- 150.18 28.66 2.674 1.926 1.500 1.208 1.000 0.835 Exchange Rate 1969 Cr/US$ 5.71 4.64 4.35 4.26 4.31 4.22 4.06 3.84 Source: Estimates for 1950-69 are from the IBRD Economic Report on Brazil (WH-203a). The estimates for 1970 were made by the mission on the basis of preliminary growth rate estimates prepared by the Getulio Vargas Foundation. Table 2-.3: BRAZIL - NATIONAL ACCOUNTS SUMMARY 1950, 1960 AND 1965-70 (As percentages of GDP) 1950 1960 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 I. Gross Domestic Product mp 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 1. Agriculture 29.4 23.4 24.8 22.8 23.0 21.6 21.0 20.2 2. Industry 26.4 32.1 30.8 32.8 32.2 33.6 34.2 34.7 3. Services 44.2 44.5 44.4 44.4 44.8 44.8 44.8 45.1 II. Domestic Consumption 82.5 83.5 79.6 84.1 85.2 83.4 82.6 82.6 1. Government 11.8 13.4 11.6 11.8 11.8 11.8 - - 2. Private Sector 70.7 70.1 68.0 72.3 73.4 71.6 - - III. Domestic Savings 17.5 16.5 20.4 15.9 14.8 16.8 17.4 17.4 1. National Savings 16.5 15.6 20.0 15.5 14.0 15.9 16.6 16.4 Government (2.6) (4.7) (0.9) (4.0) (1.2)- (3.2) - - Private Sector (13.9) (10.9) (19.1) (11.5) (12.8) (12.7) - - 2. Net Factor Payments and Transfers 0.1 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.0 IV. Resource Gap - 3.0 1.9 - 2.1 - 0.7 0.2 1.1 0.2 0.8 1. Imports 16.5 10.5 5.6 7.0 7.4 8.5 8.3 9.2 2. Exports 19.5 8.6 7.7 7.7 7.2 7.4 8.1 8.4 V. Domestic Investment 14.5 18.4 18.4 15.2 15.0 17.7 17.5 18.1 1. Fixed Investment 15.0 16.9 14.7 15.2 14.3 17.0 17.1 18.0 Government (4.3) (4.7) (4.4) (4.0) (4.4) (4.2) - - Private Sector (10.7) (12.2) (10.3) (11.2) (9.9) (12.8) - - 2. Inventories - 0.5 1.5 3.7 - 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.1 Source: Table 2.2. Table 2.4: CAPITAL/OUTPUT RATIOS, 1947-70 SERIES IN Cr$ MILLIONS AT 1969 PRICES SERIES IN Cr$ tILLIOWS AT 1953 PRICES GDP GDPmp Fixed ICOR GNP Fixed ICOR Year Inflator GDPmp Change Investment (l yr. lag) GNP Change Investment (1 yr. lag) 1947 203.2 33,501 2,487 6,318 2-54 311.3 20.5 54.3 2.65 1948 184.9 35,988 2,407 5,751 2.39 331.8 24.5 55.3 2.26 1949 167.0 38,395 2,469 5,979 2.42 356.3 41.2 59.6 1-45 1950 150.2 40,864 2,422 6,127 2.53 397.5 24-7 64-4 2.61 1951 134.1 43,286 3,803 7,981 2.10 422.2 32.8 78.9 2.41 1952 118.5 47,089 1,160 7,869 6.79 455.0 10.9 84.8 7-78 1953 102.8 48,249 4,882 7,359 1.51 465.9 55.8 71.6 1.28 1954 84-7 53,131 3,653 8,926 2.44 521.7 28.3 77.9 2-75 1955 72-5 56,784 1,798 7,712 4.29 550.0 17.9 73.4 4.10 1956 58.8 58,582 4,725 8,277 1-75 567.9 46.3 79.1 1.71 1957 51.98 63,307 4,872 8,987 1.84 614.2 46.8 89.7 1.92 1958 46.78 68,179 3,818 11,082 3.67 661.0 34.9 95.0 2.72 1959 36.19 71,997 6,976 13,312 1.91 695.9 67-3 107.3 1.59 1960 28.66 78,973 8,127 13,373 1.65 763.2 80.2 111.7 1-39 1961 21.50 87,100 4,857 14,980 3.27 843.4 38.5 117.4 3.05 1962 13.89 91,687 1,416 16,397 11.59 881.9 11.9 121.0 10.17 1963 .8o% 93,103 2,714 16,381 6.01 893.8 35-5 117.6 3-31 1964 4.156 95,817 2,633 15,811 6.03 929.3 26.0 120.5 4.63 1965 2.674 98,450 5,023 14,452 2.87 955.3 45.2 117.4 2.60 1966 1.926 103,473 4,967 15,792 3.18 1,000.5 46.5 141.0 3.03 1967 1.500 108,440 9,106 15,486 1.70 1,047.0 84.4 143.7 1.70 1968 1.208 117,546 10,579 19,947 1.89 1,131.4 . 174.7 1969 1.000 128,125 12,172 21,942 1.80 1970 0.835 140,297 . 25,233 Totals for Period: GDP Change Fixed Invest. ICOR Totals for Periods: GDP Change Fixed Invest. ICOR a. 1950-1960 38,109 87,632 2.30 a. 1950-1960 365.7 822.1 2.24 b. 1960-1965 19,477 76,942 3-95 b. 1960-1965 192.1 588.2 3.06 o. 1965-70 41,847 87,619 2.09 c. 1965-1968 192.1 576.8 3.00 Souroe: The estimates at 1953 prices are from the Getulio Vargas Foundation (CGV). The estimates in 1969 prices for 1947-60 axe derived from the FGV national accounts in current prices using the inflators shown. For 1967-70 mission estimates have been used. Table 2.5: BRAZIL - ALTERNATIVE NATIONAL ACCOUNTS PROJECTIONS FOR 1977 (In Cr$ billions at 1969 value) 1970 Projections at 8-9% GDP Growth Projections at 7-8% GDP Growth Projections at 6-7% GDP Growth Estimate 1977 1977 1977 1977 1977 1977 1977 1977 1977 1977 1977 1977 A. Basic Assumptions GDP growth rate, 1971-77 - 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 ICOR in 1976-77 - 2.5 2.5 3.0 2.5 2. 3 o 3-0 2.5 2.5 3.0 3.0 Export Prospects oderate O Moate ptimistic Moderate Optimistio Moder mistic Moderate Optimistic Moderate Optimistic Moderate B. National Accounts Summazy I. Gross Domestio Product mp 140.3 248.4 248.4 248.4 248.4 231.4 231.4 231.4 231.4 218.0 218.0 218.0 218.0 1. Agriculture 28 41.5 41,5 41.5 41.5 38.9 38.9 38.9 38.9 37.4 37.4 37.4 3 2. Industry 48.6 101.0 101.0 101.0 101.0 91.7 91.7 91.7 91.7 83.3 83-3 83.3 83.3 3. Services 63.3 105.9 105.9 105.9 105.9 100.8 100.8 100.8 100.8 97.3 97.3 97-3 97*3 II. Domestic Consumption 116.0 190.3 195.5 184.1 189.4 180.1 185.3 175 180.5 172.1 177-3 167.9 173.1 III. Domestic Savings 24.3 $8.1 g_u 61. 9.0 u3 46.1 56.1 50.9 440.7 50- 44.9 1. National Savings 23.0 56.5 50.4 61.7 56.0 50.3 44 1 54.3 48.4 45.6 39.5 49.0 43.1 2. Faotor Payments and Transfers 1.3 1.6 2.5 2.6 3.0 1.0 2.0 1.8 2.5 0.3 1.2 1.1 1.8 IV. Resource GaD 1.1 -1.4 3.3 ..4 10.7 -S.2 - 0.4 5.6 -8.9 -37 -4.7 0.5 1. Imports and NAFS 13.1 28.0 28.0 34.9 34.9 24.2 24.2 29.8 29.8 20.5 20.5 24.7 24.7 2. Exports and IFS 12.0 29.4 24.2 29.4 24.2 29.4 24.2 29.4 24.2 29.4 24.2 29.4 24.2 V. Domestic Investment 25.4 S6.7 S6. 69.7 46.1 4 1 56.5 S. 37.0 4 .4 454 1. Fixed Investment 25.2 54.2 54.2 67.2 67.2 43.8 43.8 54.2 54.2 34.8 34.8 43.2 43.2 2. Inventories 0.2 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 C. Growth Rates. 1971-77 Gross Domestic Product 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 Agriculture 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.0 4.0 4.o 4.0 Industry 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 Services 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.6 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 Domestic Consumption 7.3 7.7 6.8 7.3 6.5 6.9 6.1 6.5 5.8 6.2 5.4 5.9 Domestic Savings 13.3 11.7 14.9 13.5 11.3 9.6 12.7 11.1 9.5 7.6 10.9 9.2 Imports and NFS 11.6 11.6 15.0 15.0 9.3 9.3 12.6 12.6 4.9 4.9 9.7 9.7 Exports and NFS 13.9 10.8 13-9 10.8 13.9 10.8 13.9 10.8 10.8 13.9 10.8 13-9 Domestic Investment 12.2 12.2 15.5 15.5 8.9 8.9 12.1 12.1 5.5 5.5 8.7 8.7 Domestic Fixed Investment 11.5 11.5 15.0 15.0 8.2 8.2 11.5 11.5 4.7 4.7 8.0 8.0 D. Macroeconomic Parametere Ioor (1 yr. lag) for 1971-77 2.3 2.3 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.9 2.9 Marginal Domestic Savings Rate, 1971-77 .31 .26 .37 .32 .30 .24 .35 .29 .28 .21 *33 .27 Elasticity of Demand for Impolts, 1971-77 1.36 1.36 1.76 1.76 1.24 1.24 1.68 1.68 0.75 0.75 1.49 1.49 Average Annual Resource Balance, 1971-77 Constant (1970) US$ millions +52 -536 -658 -1,246 +470 -118 -140 -728 ±885 +300 +405 -183 Current US$ millions +68 -604 -749 -1,421 +548 -122 -153 -825 +1,027 +355 4476 -196 Source: Mission projections.- Table 3.1: BALANCE 0 PAYMENTS SUMMARY, 1965-70 (In us$ millions) 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1. Exports 1747 1875 1821 2076 2579 3064 Merchandise 1 1741 165 1 2311 2739 Non Factor Services 151 134 167 195 268 325 2. Imports 1280 1703 1878 2378 2630 3345 Merchandise 94i 1303 1P441 1w-7 1993 2tg2 Non Factor Services 339 400 437 523 637 819 3. Resource Balance (=1-2) 467 172 -57 -302 -51 -281 l4. Net Factor Income -17) -197 -25$7 -228 -21.i -'5] Dividends -id -73 -119 Interest (net.' -156 -155 -184 -1414 -180 -232 5. Donations l-_ _ 79 22 31 10 Official 3 3L4 27 17 17 10 Private 39 i5 5. 5 6. Current Accounts Balance (=3+4+5) 368 54 -23t -5o0 -221 -622 7. Direct Investment (net) 70 74 76 61 124 as 8. Medium and Long-Term Credit n.a n n.a. 106 182 278 Disbursement 392 -64 -3U9_ Amortization 286 282 371 9. Financial Credits n.. n.a na. 412 591 653 Mediun-Term . . 97 601 619 Short-Term . . 315 -10 34 10. Other Transactions n.a. n.a. n.a. -104 5 164 11. Change In Official Reserves (IBRD definition) _____-33 +621 +518 IMF Definition 290 138 -147 93 732 o64 Adj. for Compensatory Loan Amortization -126 -111 -92 Adj. for Res. 63 reserve liability - - +6 Source: Banco Central do Brasil - Economic Department. Table 3.2: MERCIANDISE EXPORTS (FOB),1965-70 (In uS$ millions) 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1. Coffee 708 774 733 797 846 982 Beans 764T 705 774 939 Soluble I 10 28 23 33 43 2. Principal Agricultural Products 363 437 417 533 28 Cotton 96 Ill -71- -7311 91 Cocoa beans 28 51 59 46 105 78 Cocoa butter 13 21 25 26 31 28 Sugar 54 81 80 102 115 127 Pine (sawMood) 52 56 51 71 72 68 Castor oil 27 22 23 36 45 38 Beef - frozen & chilled 24 13 7 20 42 69 Corn 28 32 22 57 33 80 Soybean 7 13 29 6 29 27 Soya cake and meal 8 15 10 19 33 44 Tobacco 26 22 20 19 27 31 3. Principal Minerals 132 127 117 129 164 241 Iron Ore 10 100 103 105 147 210 Manganese 29 27 14 24 17 31 4. Processed Agricultural Products 46 47 37 48 72 105 Raw materials (class II) 17 23 32 Canned Beef 12 8 6 13 13 13 Food Products (Class IV) . 17 16 15 19 27 36 5. Manufactures 109 97 143 130 182 307 Chemicals (Class V) fl; 229 -73 39 Machinery (Class VI) 29 33 44 41 60 97 Raw Materials (Class VII) 63 35 66 58 80 149 Misc, manuf. (Class VIII) 3 4 4 5 10 22 6. Other Exports 227 255 197 292 310 360 7. Special Transactions 11 4 10 12 9 - Total 1596 1741 1654 1881 2311 2739 X fLass IV excluding canned beef and soluble coffee. Sources: IBGE Anuario Estatistico for 1965 to 1968; Banco do Brasil (CACEX) for 1969 and 1970. Table 3.3: QUANTITIES AND PRICES FOR PRINCIPAL EXPORTS (Actual 1965-70) 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 Quantities ('000 metric tons) Coffee beans ('000 bags) 13482 16832 16738 18458 18723 16043 Soluble coffee ('000 bags equiv.) 15 199 592 577 923 1041 Cotton 196 236 189 248 440 343 Cocoa beans 92 113 114 76 119 120 Cocoa butter 17 21 21 18 16 19 Sugar 710 1005 1001 1026 1099 1125 Pine 675 716 620 789 591 544 Castor oil 1/ 140 95 75 'I 6 183 153 Beef - frozen & chilled 36 21 12 39 78 98 Beef - canned 17 11 7 15 15 17 Corn 560 627 430 1238 649 1471 Soyabean 75 121 305 66 310 290 Soya cake & meal 105 185 125 235 275 525 Tobacco 55 46 45 39 48 54 Iron ore 12731 12910 14279 15050 21748 28061 Manganese 1068 957 542 1124 861 1588 Prices (US$ per metric ton) Coffee beans (US$ per bag) 52.4 45.4 42.1 42.0 43.58 58.23 Soluble coffee (US$ per bag equiv.) 50.0 47.9 47.8 39.5 35.70 40.86 Cotton 488.8 470.6 479.5 528.4 443.0 450.5 Cocoa beans 301.1 451.0 517.4 608.0 882.2 648.6 Cocoa butter 776.1 988.7 1195.7 1404.4 1909.0 1460.0 Sugar 76.1 80.2 80.3 99.0 104.7 112.4 Pine 76.5 78.5 81.5 90.6 121.4 124.3 Castor oil 190.9 235.0 310.7 312.6 245.0 249.1 Beef - frozen & chilled 676.8 625.0 586.2 515.3 537.0 707.5 Beef - canned 734.8 767.2 869.6 868.7 861.5 954.0 Corn 49.9 50.7 51.2 46.1 50.7 54.3 Soyabean 97.5 107.5 96.0 95.5 94.3 93.5 Soya cake & meal 73.1 78.9 81.5 80.7 79.3 83.1 Tobacco 476.5 479.7 451.7 489.8 555.1 582.7 Iron ore 8.10 7.76 7.20 6.94 6.86 7.47 Manganese 27.4 28.0 25.2 21.5 19.84 19.26 / Including veal. Sources: IBGE - Anuario Estatistico and Banco do Brasil (CACEX). Table 3.4: MERCHXNDISE IMPORTS (FOB),1965-70 (In US$ millions) 1965 1966 1967 196d 1969 1970 1. Capital Equipment (Class VI) 229 357 447 621 731 973 2. Intermediate Products 344 491 409 676 712 945 a. Raw materials (Class II) -X 52 --w 75 123 106 l44 b. Chemicals (Class V) 151 197 201 253 274 383 c. Processed raw materials (Class VII) 140 226 210 26f 329 415 d. Live animals (Class I) 1 2 3 2 3 3 3. Consumer Goods 94 140 153 209 203 267 a. Foodi & beverages (Class IV) 4 - -9T2 15 M7 1T2 b. Misc. manufactures (Class VIII) 31 49 56 50 83 124 4. Petroleum and Derivatives 157 170 155 158 204 226 5. Wheat 114 142 153 154 135 104 6. Special Transactions (Class IX) 3 3 14 7 d 11 Total -941 1303 1441 1855 1993 2526 L Class II excluding petre,leum and derivatives. 2/ Class IV excluding wheat. SP;ouces: Banco do Brasil (C1 xi l'}t965b-70; Banco Central (SEXPE) for 1965-67, except for Classes I, VII, VIII and IX which were calculated from CIF data (IBGE Anuario Estatistico) using £o e.ach class the CIF/FOB relationship exisbing in 1969. * ~ ~~~ ~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ . Table 3.5: BALANCE OF PAYMENTS INVISIBLES,1965-70 (In US$ millions) 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1. Conmodity Balance 655 438 213 26 318 213 2. Non Factor Receipts 151 134 167 195 268 325 a. Travel 30 12 15 17 30 b. Transport Freight 15 14 21 40 61 87 Other 41 45 4d 52 65 72 c. Insurance 3 6 d 7 8 10 d. Government 41 26 31 26 28 33 e. Services 21 31 44 53 78 93 3. Non Factor Payments -339 -400 -437 -523 -637 -819 a. Travel -31 -43 -49 IIj -117- b. Transport Freight -77 -90 -100 -124 -110 -135 Other -6 -17 -23 -31 -151 -214 c. Insurance -10 -10 -12 -16 -19 -20 d. Government -78 -80 -99 -89 -92 -123 e. Services -137 -160 -154 -125 -148 -167 4. Resource Balance (-1+2+3) 467 172 -57 -302 -51 -281 5. Factor Inccme Received 10 7 18 10 22 50 a. Dividends - - - - - - b. Interest 10 7 18 10 22 50 6. Factor Payments -184 -204 -275 -238 -263 -401 a. Dividends =-1 -42 -73 -o =1 -119 b. Interest -166 -162 -202 -154 -202 -282 7. Donations Received 85 93 107 75 83 76 a. Official 44 3 31 22 b. Private 41. 55 76 55 61 61 b. Donations Made -10 -14 -30 -53 _ -66 a. Official. -3 - b. Private -2 -10 -26 -50 -47 -61 9. Current Account Balance 368 54 -237 -508 -281 -622 Source: Banco Central do Brasil - Departamento Econoaico. Table 3.6: NET FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES OF THlE MONETYfiY AUTHORITIE S (In uS$ millions) End of Period 1963 19641 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 A. Convertible Balances Gold & Convertible Assets Gold 150 91 63 45 45 45 45 45 Foreig change 49 146 458 383 196 228 650 1,036 Other J1 85 60 82 102 60 99 186 210 Subtotal 26T 297 63 31 301 373 8TB 1,291 Net IMF Position -97 -69 -89 -32 1 12 12 117 Liabilities (-) -971 -962 -954 -835 -767 -727 -546 -432 Convertible Balances, net -784 -734 -441 -337 -465 -342 +347 +976 B. Bilateral Balances Assets 53 62 56 82 54 30 67 61 Liabilities (-) -5 -3 -4 -i -4 -3 -- -2 Expired Bilateral Assets 42 38 36 31 33 25 28 16 Expired Bilateral Liabilities (-) -33 -27 -23 -12 -1 -- __ __ Bilateral Balances, net 7 70 7 101 BE 7 9 7 C. Net Reserve Position (A+B) -728 -664 -374 -236 -383 -290 442 1,051 D. Change in Official Reserves n.a. 64 290 138 -147 93 732 609 XJ Includes items in the process of collection and some long-term assets. Sources: Central Bank of Brazil and INF. I I I~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Table 3.7: BRAZIL - IMPORT TAX, COLLECTIONS AND TUE VALUE OF IMPORTS (CIF), 1960-70 Import CIF Value Import Tax CIF Imports Import Tax Tax of Imports Cr$ mil. Cr$ mil. as % of Cr$ mil. US$ mil. 1969 prices 1969 prices CIF ImRorts 1960 22.03 1462 631.4 6784 9.31 1961 35.72 1460 767.8 6628 11.58 1962 58.41 1475 811.3 6918 11.73 1963 86.81 1487 677.6 6751 10.04 1964 124.4 1264 561.8 5612 10.01 1965 208.5 1096 557.5 4768 11.69 1966 415.8 1496 870.2 6373 13.65 1967 369.8 1738 554.7 7491 7.40 1968 815.7 2132 1028.9 8997 1144, 1969 1078.0 2265 1078.0 9156 11-77 1970 1329.7 2866 1110.3 11005 10.fl Souroes: Ministry of Finance, Inspectoria Geral de Finanzas and Economic Department of the Central Bank. The data have been converted to Cruzeiros at 1969 prices using the GDP deflator (see Table 1.1) for the Import Tax and an exchange rate deflator (see Table 1.1) for'!he CIF value of imports. -Table 3.8: THE STRUCTURE OF IMPORT DUTIES, 1971 Potential Actual EbceMptions import value (CIF) Liability Liability Allowed Ratio to CIF Value Ritio of Aotiial Cr$ as % Cr$ Or$ Cr$ Potential Actual to Potential Products millions of total million million millU Liability Live animals and animal products 225 2.47 82.692 4.633 78-059 0.368 0.021 0.056 Vegetable products 707 7.76 249.280 26.256 223.024 0.353 0.037 0.105 Animal and vegetable fats and oils 69 0.76 25.656 11.438 14.218 0o372 0.166 o0,46 Processed foodstuffs 67 0.73 53-415 37.314 16.101 0.797 0.557 0.699 Mineral products 478 5.25 58.453 13.580 44.873 0.122 0.028 0.232 Chimical products 1,600 17.58 336.903 189.355 147.548 0.211 0.118 o.562 Plastics, synthetics and rubber 352 3.87 176.768 87.515 89.253 0.502 0.249 0.495 1ides and skins 12 0.13 Z.35 1.138 1.817 0.246 0.095 0.385 Wood an4 wood products 18 0.20 6.622 1.774 4.848 0.368 0.099 0.268 Paper andc paper products 242 2.66 34.o40 25.926 8.114 0.141 0.107 0.762 Textiles 174 1.92 86.325 53.905 32.421 0.496 0.310 u.624 Footwear, headgear, etc. 6 0.07 4.247 1.271 2.976 0,707 0.212 0.299 Articles of stone, czmient, etc. 81 0.89 31.878 21.859 10.019 0.394 0.270 0.686 Pearls, precious and seni-precious 36 0.42 7.324 1.564 5.760 0.193 0.041 0.214 stones Base metals and their products 1,391 15.27 390$45 186.872 203.673 0.281 0.134 0.478 Machinery and equipment 2,512 27.58 878.908 322.449 556.459 0.350 0.128 0.367 Vehicles and transport equipment 724 7.96 196.577 48.647 147.930 0.272 o.067 0.247 Optical and photographic equipment 363 3.99 78.046 50.458 27.588 0.215 0.139 o.647 Arms and amnunition 4 0.04 0.885 0.616 0.269 0.221 0.154 0.696 Articles not elsewhere specified 24 0.27 11.598 9.089 2.509 0.483 0.379 0.784 Works of art and antiques 2 0.03 0.557 0.299 0.258 0.279 0.150 0.537 Miscellaneous 14 0.15 10.588 2.510 8.078 0.756 0.179 0.237 TOTAL 9,103 100.00 2,724.263 1,098.468 1,625.795 0.299 0.121 0.403 1/ The data co not include collections for the State of Guanabara during July to December, 1971. Source: Centro de Informacoes Economicas e Pinanceiras of the Ministry of Finance. Table 3.9: EXCHANGE RATE TRENDS, 1965-70 (In Cr$ per us$) EXCHANGE RAIE CHANGES SINCE 1965 AVERAGE SELLING RATE Date Buying Rate Selling Rate No. of Days % Increase By Tear 1965-70 December 26, 1964 1.850 - - - 1965 1.893 November 16, 1965 2.200 2.220 286 19.35 1966 2.220 February 13, 1967 2.700 2.715 421 24.09 1967 2.663 January 4, 1968 3.200 3.220 313 16.87 1968 3.396 August 27, 1968 3.630 3.650 170 13.35 1969 4.060 September 24, 1968 3.675 3.700 27 1.36 1970 4.594 November 19, 1968 3.745 3.770 55 1.89 BY Month 1970-71 December 9, 1968 3.806 3.830 57 2.61 1970 Jan. 4.350 February 4, 1969 3.905 3.930 57 2.61 Feb. 4.403 March 19, 1969 3.975 4.000 43 1.78 Mar. 4.420 May 13, 1969 4.025 4.050 55 1.25 Apr. 4.490 July 7, 1969 4.075 4.100 55 1.23 May 4.520 August 27, 1969 4.125 4.150 51 1.23 June 4.560 October 3, 1969 4.185 4.210 37 1.23 July 4.609 November 13, 1969 4.265 4.290 41 1.91 Aug. 4.650 December 17, 1969 4.325 4.350 34 1.30 Sept. 4.680 February 4, 1970 4.380 4.410 40 1.37 Oct. 4.720 March 30, 1970 4.460 4.490 56 1.81 Nov. 4.830 May 18, 1970 4.530 4-560 49 1.55 Deo. 4.890 July 10, 1970 4.590 4.620 52 1.32 July 24, 1970 4.620 4.650 14 0.65 1971 Jan. 4.950 September 18, 1970 4.690 4.720 56 1.50 Feb. 5.007 November 4, 1970 4.780 4.810 48 1.90 Mar. 5.056 December 22, 1970 4.920 4.950 33 1.86 Apr. 5.110 February 9, 1971 5.000 5.030 49 1.62 May 5.187 March 19, 1971 5.080 5.110 38 1.60 June 5.249 May 3, 1971 5.160 5-195 45 1.60 July 5.285 June 11, 1971 5.250 5.285 39 1.73 Source: Banco Central do Brasil, Departamento Economioo. Table 5.10: BRAZIL - ALTERNATIVE PROJECTIONS OF MERCHANDISE EXPORTS, 1971-77 (In millions of US$ at 1970 value) Growth Rate 7, 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1970-77 ALTERNATIVE A - OPTIMISTIC PROSPECTS 1. Coffee 790 876 905 933 966 999 1,032 0.7 Beans 742 826 850 878 907 936 965 0.4 Soluble 48 50 55 55 59 63 67 6.5 2. Principal Agricultural Products 755 852 877 919 956 l10 1,050 4.7 Cotton 110 180 180 191 203 214 225 5.6 Cocoa beans 96 102 102 102 102 102 102 3.9 Cocoa butter 29 30 32 33 34 36 37 4.1 Sugar 138 152 155 164 166 182 182 5.3 Pine 67 66 77 77 77 77 77 1.8 Castor oil 38 41 43 46 48 50 53 4.9 Beef - frozen and chilled 64. 60 56 63 70 77 84 2e9 Corn 81 81 80 79 78 80 83 0.5 Soyabean 48 47 49 50 52 57 62 12.6 Soya cake and meal 51 60 70 81 93 102 112 14.3 Tobacco 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 0.9 3. Principal Minerals 297 344 450 574 627 680 778 18.2 Iron Ore 267 312 413 533 581 630 723 19.3 Manganese 30 32 37 41 46 50 55 8.5 4. Processed Agricultural Products 161 220 299 360 460 572 711 31.5 Raw materials (Class II) 95 136 177 219 274 342 428 33.5 Canned beef 20 18 23 27 31 36 41 17.8 Food products (Class IV) 46 76 99 124 155 194 242 31.5 5. Manufactures 469 674 921 1,211 1,489 1,854 2,305 33.5 Chemicals (Class V) 47 56 66 76 87 101 116 16.8 Machinery (Class VI) 150 219 298 390 488 610 762 34.5 Raw materials (Class VII) 236 345 482 632 790 988 1,234 35.5 Miscellaneous manufactures (Class VIII) 36 54 75 99 124 155 193 36.3 6. Other Exports 413 475 546 628 722 831 956 15.7 7. Special Transactions 2 3 10 10 10 10 10 - TOTAL 2,887 3,444 4,008 4,635 5,230 5,956 6,842 13.9 Table 3.10: BRAZIL - ALTERNATIVE PROJECTIONS OF M4ERCHANDISE EXPORTS, 1971-77 .... PAGE 2 Growth Rate ' 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1970-77 ALTERNATIVE B - MODERATE PROSPECTS 1. Coffee 790 821 837 853 872 891 908 -1.2 Beans 742 774 788 805 822 839 854 -1.6 Soluble 48 47 49 48 50 52 54 3.3 2. Principal Agricultural Products 755 716 719 722 734 772 786 0.5 Cotton 110 180 167 158 154 157 162 0.7 Cocoa beans 96 60 58 56 53 54 57 -4.4 Cocoa butter 29 29 30 29 30 30 31 1.5 Sugar 138 121 123 125 127 130 133 0.7 Pine (sawnwood) 67 54 54 59 59 63 64 -0.8 Castor oil 38 40 42 44 44 44 46 2.8 Beef - frozen and chilled 64 45 46 48 49 52 54 -3.4 Corn 81 69 69 69 71 73 74 -1.1 Soyabean 48 37 39 42 44 48 52 9.8 Soya cake and meal 51 52 62 63 74 74 84 9.6 Tobacco 33 29 29 29 29 29 29 -1.0 3. Principal Minerals 297 330 438 552 592 632 714 16.8 Iron Ore 267 300 408 520 560 600 680 18.2 Manganese 30 30 30 32 32 32 34 1.3 4. Processed Agricultural Products 161 224 283 344 405 468 535 26.2 Raw materials (Class II) 95 134 172 210 250 290 330 28.8 Canned beef 20 15 16 16 16 18 20 6.3 Food products (Class lV) 46 75 95 118 139 160 185 26.4 5. Manufactures 469 665 900 1,150 1,400 1,670 1,943 30.4 Chemicals (Class V) 47 55 64 72 80 89 98 14.1 Machinery (Class VI) 150 216 290 375 463 550 640 30.8 Raw materials (Class VII) 236 340 470 607 750 890 1,040 32.0 Miscellaneous manufactures (Class VIII) 36 53 73 95 118 140 165 33.5 6. Other Exports 413 454 500 550 605 665 732 11.4 7. Special Transactions 2 10 10 10 10 10 10 - TOTAL 3,220 3,687 4,81 4 618 5 5628 10.8 Source: Mission projections. I Table 3.11: BRAZIL - ALTERNATIVE QUANTITY AND PRICE PROJECTIONS FOR EXPORTS, 1971-77 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 ALTERNATIVE A - OPTIMISTIC PROSPECTS Quantities ('000 metric tons) Coffee beans ('000 bags) 16,300 17,200 17,700 18,300 18,900 19,500 20,100 Soluble coffee (1,000 bag equiv.) 1,200 1,200 1,300 1,300 1,400 1,500 1,600 Cotton 220 400 400 425 450 475 500 Cocoa beans 160 170 170 170 170 170 170 Cocoa butter 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 Sugar 1,150 1,250 1,250 1,300 1,300 1,400 1,400 Pine 560 600 700 700 700 700 700 Castor oil 140 170 180 190 200 210 220 Beef - frozen and chilled so 80 80 90 100 110 120 Beef - canned 20 20 25 30 35 40 45 Corn 1,500 1,550 1,600 1,650 1,700 1,750 1,800 Soyabean 400 430 470 500 550 600 650 Soyabean meal and cake 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 Tobacco 58 61 60 60 60 60 60 Iron Ore 34,000 39,000 51,000 65,000 70,000 75,000 85,000 Manganese 1,500 1,500 1,700 1,800 1,900 2,000 2,100 Prices (US$ (1970) per metric ton) Coffee beans ($ per bag) 45.5 48.0 48.0 48.0 48.0 48.0 48.0 Soluble coffee ($ per bag equiv.) 40.0 42.0 42.0 42.0 42.0 42.0 42.0 Cotton 500.0 450.0 450.0, 450.0 450.0 450.0 450.0 Cocoa beans 600.0 600.0 600.0 600.0 600.0 600.0 600.0 Cocoa butter 1,320.0 1,320.0 1,320.0 1,320.0 1,320.0 1,320.0 1,320.0 Sugar 120.0 122.0 124.0 126.0 128.0 130.0 130.0 Pine 120.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 Castor oil 270.0 240.0 240.0 240.0 240.0 240.0 240.0 Beef - frozen and chilled 800.0 750.0 700.0 700.0 700.0 700.0 700.0 Beef - canned 1,000.0 900.0 900.0 900,0 900.0 900.0 900.0 Corn 54.0 52.0 50.0 48.0 46.0 46.0 46.0 Soyabean 120.0 110.0 105.0 100.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 Soyabean meal and cake 85.0 86.0 88.0 90.0 93.0 93.0 93.0 Tobacco 570.0 550M0 550.0 550.0 550.0 550.0 550.0 Iron Ore 7.85 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.5 Manganese 20.0 21,0 22.0 23.0 24.0 25.0 26.0 Table 3.11: BRAZIL - ALERAIVE QUANTITY AND PRICE PROJECTIONS FOR EXPORTS, 1971-77 .... PAGE 2 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 ALTURATIVE B - MODERATE PROSPECTS Quantities ('000 setric tons) Coffee beans (1,000 bags) 16.300 17,200 17,700 18,300 18,950 19,500 20,100 Soluble coffee (1,000 bag equiv.) 1,200 1,200 1,300 1,300 1,400 1,500 1,600 Cotton 220 400 380 360 350 360 370 Cocoa beans 160 100 100 100 100 105 110 Cocoa butter 22 22 23 24 25 26 27 Sugar 1,150 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,020 1,050 Pine 560 600 600 650 650 680 700 Castor oil 140 170 180 190 190 190 200 Beef - frozen and chilled 80 78 76 77 78 82 85 Beef - canned 20 17 18 18 18 21 23 Corn 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,550 1,580 1,600 Soyabean 400 394 410 442 464 500 550 Soyabean meal and cake 600 600 700 700 800 800 700 Tobacco 58 60 60 60 60 60 60 Iron ore 34,000 39,000 51,000 65,000 70,000 75,000 85,000 Manganese 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,700 Prices (US$ (1970) per ton) Coffee beans (US$ per bag) 45.5 45.0 44.5 44.0 43.5 43.0 42.5 Soluble coffee (US$ per bag equiv.) 40.0 39.0 38.0 37.0 36.0 35.0 34.0 Cotton 500.0 450.0 440.0 440.0 440.0 437.0 437.0 Cocoa beans 600.0 600.0 580.0 560.0 530.0 514.0 514.0 Cocoa butter 1,320.0 1,300.0 1,300.0 1,200.0 1,200.0 1,160.0 1,160.0 Sugar 120.0 121.0 123.0 125.0 127.0 127.0 127.0 Pine 120.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 92.0 92.0 Castor oil 270.0 235.0 235.0 230.0 230.0 230.0 230.0 Beef - frozen and chilled 800.0 575.0 605.0 620.0 630.0 630.0 630.0 Beef - canned 1,000.0 865.0 865.0 865.0 865.0 866.0 866.0 Corn 54.0 46.0 46.0 46.0 46.0 46.0 46.0 Soyabean 120.0 94.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 Soyabean meal and'cake 85.0 86.0 88.0 90.0 93.0 93.0 93.0 Tobacco 570.0 490.0 490.0 490.0 490.0 490.0 490.0 Iron ore 7.85 7.7 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 Manganese 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 Source: Mission projections. Table 3.12: BRAZIL - ALTERNATIVE PROJECTIDNS OF MERCHANDISE IMPORTS (FOB), 1971-77 (In millimns of US$ at 1970 value) Growth Rates 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1970-77 A. GDP Growth at 8.9% p.a., ICOR 2.5 1. Capital Equipment 1,136 1,324 1,544 1,800 2,100 2,455 2,863 16.7 2. Intermediate Products 1,035 1,134 1,243 1,362 1,493 1,635 1,792 9.6 3. Consumer Goods 286 306 327 350 374 401 429 7.0 4. Petroleum and Derivatives 245 200 95 165 240 300 360 6.9 5. Wheat 95 92 80 80 80 80 80 -3.7 6. Special Transactions 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 - TOTAL 2,807 3,066 3,299 3,767 4,297 4,881 5,534 11.6 B. GDP Growth at 8-9% p.a., ICOR 3.0 1. Capital Equipment 1,136 1,383 1,683 2,048 2,492 3,033 3,691 21.7 2. Intermediate Products 1,035 1,183 1,352 1,545 1,767 2,019 2,308 14.3 3. Consumer Goods 286 306 327 350 374 401 429 7.0 4. Petroleum and Derivatives 245 200 95 165 240 300 360 6.9 5. Wheat 95 92 80 80 80 80 80 -3.7 6. Special Transactions 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 - TOTAL 2,807 3.174 3,547 4,198 4,963 5,843 6,878 15.0 C. GDP Growth at 7-8% p.a., ICOR 2.5 1. Capital Equipment 1,136 1,270 1,420 1,587 1,775 1,984 2,218 11.8 2. Intermediate Products 1,035 1,123 1,218 1,322 1,434 1,556 1,688 8.5 3. Consumer Goods 286 304 323 343 364 386 410 6.2 4. Petroleum and Derivatives 245 200 95 165 240 300 360 6.9 5. Wheat 95 92 80 80 80 80 80 -3.7 6. Special Transactions 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 - TOTAL 2,807 2,999 3,146 3,507 3,903 4,316 4,66 9.3 D. GDP Growth at 7-8% p.a., ICOR 3.0 1. Capital Equipment 1,136 1,324 1,544 1,800 2,100 2,455 2,863 16.7 2. Intermediate Products 1,035 1,170 1,322 1,493 1,688 1,907 2,155 13.0 3. Consumer Goods 286 304 323 343 364 386 410 6.2 4. Petroleum and Derivatives 245 200 95 165 240 300 360 6.9 5. Wheat 95 92 80 80 80 80 80 -3.7 6. Special Transactions 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 - TOTAL 2 3807 6100 3 374 3.891 4,482 5,138 12.6 E. GDP Growth at 6-7% p.a., ICOR 2.5 1. Capital Equipment 1,136 1,213 1,296 1,384 1,478 1,578 1,685 6.8 2. Intermediate Products 1,305 1,105 1,180 1,261 1,347 1,438 1,536 6.8 3. Consumer Goods 286 299 312 326 341 356 375 5.4 4. Petroleum and Derivatives 245 200 95 165 240 300 360 6.9 5. Wheat 95 92 80 80 80 80 80 -3.7 6. Special Transactions 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 - TOTAL 2,807 2,919 2,973 3,226 3,496 3,762 4,046 4.9 F. GDP Growth at 6-7% p.a., ICOR 3.0 1. Capital Equipment 1,136 1,267 1,412 1,575 1,756 1,958 2,183 11.5 2. Intermediate Products 1,035 1,143 1,261 1,393 1,538 1,697 1,873 10.4 3. Consumer Goods 286 299 312 326 341 356 375 5.4 4. Petroleum and Derivatives 245 200 95 165 240 300 360 6.9 5. Wheat 95 92 80 80 80 80 80 -3.7 6. Special Transactions 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 - TOTAL 2.807 3,011 3.170 3,549 3,965 4,401 4,881 9.7 Source: Mission projections- I I I Table 3.13: BRAZIL - ALTERNATIVE RESOURCE GAP PROJECTIONS., 1971-77 (In millions of US$ at 1970 values) 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 A. CDP Growth at 8 to 9'!. per annum 1. Capital/output ratio of 2.5 Resource Balance -487 -203 120 203 168 207 358 Rapid export growth Imports + NFS 3,717 4,060 4,369 4,988 5,690 6,464 7,305 Exports + NFS 3,230 3,857 4,489 5,191 5,858 6,671 7,663 2. Capital/output ratio of 2.5 Resource Balance -487 -454 -240 -305 -518 -743 -1,002 Moderate export growth Imports + NFS' 3,717 4,060 4,369 4,988 5,690 6,464 7,305 Exports + NFS 3,230 3,606 4,129 4,683 5,172 5,721 6,303 3. Capital/output ratio of 3.0 Resource Balance -487 -346 -208 -368 -714 -1,066 -1,416 Rapid export growth Imports + NFS 3,717 4,203 4,697 5,559 6,572 7,737 9,079 Exports + NFS 3,230 3,857 4,489 5,191 5,858 6,671 7,663 4. Capital/output ratio of 3.0 Resource Balance -487 -597 -568 -876 -1,400 -2,016 -2,776 Moderate export growth Imports + NFS 3,717 4,203 4,697 5,559 6,572 7,737 9,079 Exports + NFS 3,230 3,606 4,129 4,683 5,172 5,721 6,303 B. GDP Growth at 7 to 8% per annum 1. Capital/output ratio of 2.5 Resource Balance -487 -114 323 547 690 956 1,372 Rapid export growth Imports + NFS 3,717 3,971 4,166 4,644 5,168 5,715 6,291 Exports + NFS 3,230 .3,857 4,489 5,191 5,858 6,671 7,663 2. Capital/output ratio of 2.5 Resource Balance -487 -365 -37 39 4 6 12 Moderate export growth Imports + NFS 3,717 3,971 4,166 4,644 5,168 5,715 6,291 Exports + NFS 3,230 3,606 4,129 4,683 5,172 5,721 6,303 3. Capital/output ratio of 3.0 Resource Balance -487 -248 21 38 -77 -133 -96 Rapid export growth Imports + NFS 3,717 4,105 4,468 5,153 5,935 6,804 7,753 Exports + NFS 3,230 3,857 4,489 5,191 5,858 6,671 7,k' 4. Capital/output ratio of 3.0 Resource Balance -487 -499 -339 -470 -763 -1.083 :1 4, Moderate export growth Imports + NFS 3,717 4,105 4,468 5,153 5,935 6,804 7,759 Exports + NFS 3,230 3,606 4,129 4,683 5,172 5,721 6,36 C. GDP Growth at 6 to 7% per annum 1. Capital/output ratio of 2.5 Resource Balance -487 -8 552 919 1,229 1,669 2,322 Rapid export growth Imports + NFS 3,717 3,865 3,937 4,272 4,629 4,982 5,341 Export + NFS 3,230 3,857 4,489 5,191 5,858 6,672 7,663 2. Capital/output ratio of 2.5 Resource Balance -487 -259 192 411 543 739 962 Moderate export growth Imports + NFS 3,717 3,865 3,937 4,272 4,629 4,982 5, 1 Exports + NFS 3,230 3,606 4,129 4,683 5,172 5,721 6,^Q3 3. Capital/output ratio of 3.0 Resource Balance -487 -130 291 491 608 843 1,220 Rapid export growth Imports + NFS 3,717 3,987 4,198 4,700 5,250 5,828 6,443 Exports + NFS 3,230 3,857 4,489 5,191 5,858 6,671 7,663 4. Capital/output ratio of 3.0 Resource Balance -487 -381 -69 -17 -78 -107 -140 Moderate export growth Imports + NFS 3,717 3,987 4,198 4,700 5,250 5,828 6,443 Exports + NFS 3,230 3,606 4,129 4,683 5,172 5,721 6,303 Sources:tables 3.11 and 3.12. Non-factor services are assumed to bear the same relationships to Exports (F(Fr3 and Imports (FOB) as they did in 1970. Thus Exports incl. NFS = 1.12 x Exports (FOB) Imports incl. NFS = 1.32 x Imports (FOB). I I I Table 4.1: FEXTZNAL DEBT AS OF DECEBER 31, 1970 '(In US$ million) Outstanding Disbur. Amort. Net Outstanding Pipe- Total & Disbur. During During Change & Disbur. line Including 12/31/69 1970 1970 1970 12/31/70 12/31/70 Pipeline A. Medium and Long-Term Loans 2802.2 589.5 445.8 143.7 2945.9 2478.2 5424.1 1. Compensatory Loans 548.3 - 166.8 -166.8 381.5 - 381.5 IMF - 7-750 -- - - American Govt. & Agencies 357.7 _ 43.8 -43.8 313.9 - 313.9 American & Canadian Private 18.6 - 7.5 -7.5 11.1 - 11.1 European Consolidation 54.1 - 28.1 -28.1 26.0 - 26.0 Japan 42.9 _ 12.4 -12.4 30.5 - 30.5 2. Internatioral Organizations 363.9 162.5 31.6 130.9 494.8 587.6 1082.4 fl21RD T93T8 73.4 14.0 3~97: -256.2- 415-7 673.9 IFC 14.1 3.1 0.8 2.3 16.4 5.0 21.4 IDB loans repayable in $ 151.0 86.0 16.8 69.2 220.2 166.9 387.1 (m)B loans repayable in or) (196.0) (18-7) (7-7) (11.0) (207.0) (149.1) (356.1) 3. Bilateral Organizations 948.1 121.2 13.6 107.6 1055.7 226.9 1282.6 USAID Program Loans 5648.o - 713 -W6 _- 20.0 623.6 USAID Sector & Project loans 233.0 33.3 - 33.3 266.3 148.0 414.3 PL 480 103.0 5.8 5.6 C.2 103.2 19.0 122.2 Wheat loans 10.6 - 6.2 -6.2 4.4 - 4.4 Canadian Wheat Board - 20.5 - 20.5 20.5 - 20.5 KFo; 34.7 22.5 1.7 20.8 55.5 39.9 95.4 Danish National Bank 2.0 0.3 0.1 0.2 2.2 - 2.2 4. Suppliers' Credits 614.3 305.8 222.4 83-4 697.7 _663-7 2361.4 U.S. Eximbank 166.9 535T 30.0 23.5 190.4 130.2 320.6 Other 447.4 252.3 192.4 59.9 507.3 1533.5 2040.8 5. Nationalization Loans 311.5 - 10.3 -10.3 301.2 - 301.2 Eletrobraa/ orp - * 12d.9 Bmbratel/Brazilian Traction 73.8 - 73.8 Grupo Light/Brazilian Traction 98.5 - 98.5 6. Consolidated Public Debt 16.1 1.1 -1.1 15.0 - 15.0 B. Financial Credits 1604.7 1462.7 809.7 653.0 2257.7 - 2257.7 1. Yedium-Term 697.4 851.1 232.4 618.7 1316.1 - 1316.1 Resolu.ion 63 155.1 571.2 91. 47Y.7 ;3 74. _6-4-d Law 4131 542.3 279.9 140.9 139.0 681.3 - 681.3 2. Short-Term 907.3 611.6 577.3 34.3 941.6 - 941.6 Resolution 63 277.4 6.2 265.2 -259.0 idW -4 Instruction 289 373.5 270.8 263.1 7.7 381.2 - 381.2 Law 4131 256.4 334.6 49.0 295.6 542.0 - 542.0 C. Total External Debt (=A+B) 4406.9 2052.2 1255.5 796.7 5203.6 2478.2 7681.8 Source: Banco Central do Brasil. I I Tu.ble4.2:DEBT SERVICE Oil DEB1T 0TITTANISTIG AS OF LECSOimBR 51, 4970 'art 1 - mo-ti-c+i.. Seh,dul-c (In.O iloe Debt Shedule of Ropavueto; - O.,tsradiog Doe No & Dieberoed Alre..dy After Doe on 12/31/70---e1971 1979 1973 1974 1973 1976 1977 1978 179 1980 1981 192 190 18 985 1986 1986 ~DaL. A. Mldaco & Jo.c-Tcee Debt 3010.6 36,7 293_8 270QO1 240.2 234.4 1L96.2 176.9 155.0 141.1 122.2 110.9 8268 72.0 67.9 60.7~ 57.3 11. 660.2 0.7 1. Caompensatory Loans 381.5 - 83,6 58.4 3-6.9 34.0 31.2 31, 2 31,2 312 24.9 08.9 -------- Anerican So-t. & Agencies 313.9 - 44,8 37,8 31,4 31,3 31.2 31,2 31.2 31.2 24,9 18.9 - ----- Amenrica. & Canadian Private 11.1 .. 7,0 o.0 - - - - - - - - Eoropeon Conslidated 26,0 - 19,4 6.6 - - - - - ---- ----- Japan 30.5 12,3 10,1 5,5 2.7 - - - --- ------- 2. International Orgaticati.ons 456,0- 32,2 4i1L,4 44,7 44.4 40.4 36,1 33.8 33.0 31.5 27.0 22,9 19.3 16.3 8.5 4.9 4.5 14.2- 119 258,2 -16.3 22.1 23,9 22,3 19.4 10.3 17,6 17.0 16,0 16.3 11.2 13,6 12.9 7.4 4.2 3.9 19.6- SF0 16.4 1.05 2.8 3,3 3.6 3.2 0.8 0.4 0,4 0.3 0.1 - - - - - -- I58 b.are repayable In $ 181.4 -14.2 16.5 17,5 18.3 17.1 17,0 15,8 15.6 15,2 11,4 1,7 5,9 3.4 1.1 0,7 0.6 3.35 3. Bilateralooa1 atos 1055,7 -15.0 13.5 15. 17,4 23.7 33.7 36,4 39.2 40.2 41.9 39.4 36.8 35.4 35.4 35.0 34.6 560.4- USAID Program leoane 00, 12 2,4 3.3 4, . 47 0, 79 1. 98 0. 98 1. 98 19.8 19.8 376.4- DIAIS Sector & Project loans 216.3 -- - 0,1 0,8 3.2 5,9 8.9 0.0 0,4 8,6 0.7 8.7 8.7 8,7 8.7 8.7 172.3- D'L 480 103,2 - 5.6 3.6 5.6 5,7 5.6 5,6 5 6 5.6 5.6 5,959 59 L,0 509 .56 5.9 11./. Wlheat oans 4.4- 4.4 - - - - - - - - - - - - C_audian Whbet Boatd 20.5 - 1.2 2.4 2.4 2.4 2,4 2.4 2.4 2,4 - - -- - KFW1 35, 5- 3.6 4.0 4, ~1 4.2 4.4 3.0 5.0 5.0 4.7 50 . 2.4, 1.0 1,0 0.6 9.2 0,3- Danisb National Bank 2.2- 0.2 0,3 0.2 0,2 0,3 0,2 0. 0. 0,2 0.1 0.2 - - - - - 4.p;woll_A Eedts00. 2 .67150.4 143.9 129.4 104.9 85.8 62.4 3_9.8 23.5 11 3 7__ . -8- US5 E.imbek 190, - 34,5 35.6 35.8 50.0 21.9 14,0 7.0 5.2 4.2 - -- Other 610.8 36.7 115.9 108.3 93.6 74.8 63.9 98.4 32.0 18,3 7,1 5.6 -- -4 5, Nlati.. aliatlon Leoane 301.2 14 11,0 12.3 12.7 12_1 1.6 13,1 L3.6 14.1 1,3 118 16.4 17.1 12.1 81.4 , Eletrobras/dAforp 128,9 -3.3 3.5 3.8 4.0 3.2 3.5 3.7 3.9 0. 1~ . 1 0,'. 4,6 40 5.1 5.3 63.6- Embratel/Sra,. Tr..ction 73,8 '.3.1 3.3 3,5 3,7 3,9 4.1 4,4 4,7 4,9 5, ,5'9 1,3 6, 7,0 1.8 - Grope Light/lin,. Traction 98.5 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5,0 5.0 5.0 5,0 5.12 5, 5.0 5,0 5,0 5.0 17.8 0.7 6. Coneolidated Public Debt 15.0 -L 42 1.1 1.2 .1 10 0.9 0. 7 0.6 0.3 0. 9.4 0.4 0.4 9.0.3 03 4.3 -- S. Finacial Credits 2284.6 263,5 9442_ 451.4 14_7.9 6 9, 44.0 13.1 11.1 5.8 3.4 4,2 30 15 0.1 - 96-.4 1. Reso.lution 63 653,2 330.4 263,6 30.4 16.2 11.6 1.5 - -------- 2 . I..tr.cti.Oe 289 381.2 92.6 988.6 - - - - - - ---- 3. Lou 4131 Deterelnate Schedule 953.8 170, 322,5 187.8 L17,5 10.7 33.7 11.6 i1,1 5,0 3.4 4,5 3.0 1.5 0,1 ----- 3dtnlaeSclnodale 206.4 - .. - - - - - - - - .. - - - - - 296,4 C. Total Enternal Debt (AP8) 5295.2 330,2 1235,3 721,5 388.1 311.3 241.0 190.0 166.1 146,9 125.6, 115,61 85.8a9 15 673,5. 68.08 760.765703631,57 660,25297 1 Seureo1 Banco Central do Brasil FIPRCE The data in this tabLe are baed eeregistrati.ns of debt with the Bace Control. There ore alight di-crepanci-s ith the data, In Table 4.1 hihaebased en actual n- -nts of capital. Table 4.2: DEBT SERVICE ON DEBT OUTSTANDING AS OF DECImSER 51, 19'(0 Part II - Interest Schedules (In us$ nliono) Total Schedule of Interest Pavments: - Doe Interest Already After to be Paid Du- 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1986 A, hediem & Long-Term, Debt 1041,3 8.5 104,4 105,3 91.2 80.1 71.5 64.1 57.7 51.3 44.7 39.1 34.3 30.8 27.5 24.8 22.3 20.3 163,4 1. Coropen..tory Loan 859 19.6 15.4 12.5 10.6 8.8 7,1 5.6 3.7 2.0 0.6 6 - - - - - American Govt. & Agencies 81.1 - 16,4 14,2 12.2 10.5 8.8 7.1 5.6 3.7 2.0 0.6 - - - - - - A.erican & Canadian Private 0.8 - 0,6 0.2 - - - - - - European Cu-olidetod 1,3 - 1.1 0.2 - - - - _ _ - _ _ _ _ _ _ _ Jepan 2.7 . 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 2, International Oroonizations 164,5 _ 11.4 24.8 22.4 19,6 16.9 14.5 12.4 10.5 8.5 6.7 5.0 3.7 _ 2.6 1.7 1.2 1.0 1.6 IBRD 93.9 - 0.9 13.5 12,3 10.9 9.7 8.6 7.6 6.6 5.7 4.8 3.8 2.9 2,2 1.5 1.0 0.8 1.1 IFC 3,8 - 0.1 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 - - - - - - - - _ IDB loans repayable in 9 66. - 10,1, 10.1 9.1 8.0 6.8 5.7 4.7 3.8 2.8 1.9 1.2 0.8 0,4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 3. Bilateral Orgaeioatio2. 380,1 12O4 14,3 13,8 13 4 15.3 17.8 19.1 19.9 19.2 18.6 17.5 16.6 15,5 14.7 13.9 13.1 125.0 USAID Progra- loane 230.1 - 6.2 6.2 6.1 6.1 7.8 9.9 10.7 11.8 11.4 11.3 10.8 10.4 9.9 9.5 9.1 8.6 84.3 USAID Sector & Project loans 104.1 _ 2.5 2 5 2.5 2.5 3,1 4,0 5.0 5.1 5.3 5.2 5.0 4.8 4.6 '4.4 4.2 4.0 39 4 PL 480 26.1 - 2.6 2,5 2.4 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.4, 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.7 066 0.5 1.3 Wh-et loans 0.3 - 03 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Canadian Wheat Board 3,5 _ 0.6 0,6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 KFWI 16.0 - 0.2 2.5 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 - - Danish Natioonl Bock -- 4, S.ealiers' Credits 15_2.2 8.5 40.1 30. 7 23.4 18. 13.1 9.3 5.0 2.7 1.4 0.6 0.M - - - US Eereibak 37.6 - 10.6 8,6 6.6 4.7 3,0 1,8 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.1 - _ _ _ Other 114.6 8.5 29.5 22.1 16.8 13.5 10.1 6.5 3.9 2.0 1.0 0.5 0.2 5. NIatlonalizaton Loans 246.7 ,9,8 19.1 1M- 97,5 16.7 L5B 15.0 _1_40 1 3_1 12,1 11.1 10,1 9.0 8,0 6.9 5.9 34.4 Ilorrobroa/Anforp 134,8 - 8,0 8,0 7.7 7.5 7.3 7.1 6.9 6.6 6.4 6.1 5.9 5.6 5.3 5.0 4.7 4.3 32.3 Embratel/Braz. Traction 38.5 - 4.3 4,1 3.9 3.7 3.5 3.2 3.0 2.7 2.4 2.1 1.8 1.5 1.1 0.8 0.4 - Grupo Light/Braz. Traction 73.4 - 7', 7.0 6.6 6.3 5.9 5.5 5.1 4.7 4.3 3.9 3.4 3.0 2,6 2.2 1.8 1.6 2.1 6. Consolidated Public Debt 111,9 0 , _0.8 6. _,0.6 0.5 O,S 0.4 0.4 0,4 0.3 0.3 2,4 B. inancial Creditz _3550 -_. 8,1 6.5 20.3 ,7 3c _ _ 2.0 1.3 1.0 0,5 0.2 1. R.esolution 63 - 11b.6- 71.S 35,5 6.5 3.2 1.4 0.2 - - - - - 2. Icetruotfee 289 31.7 . 31.7 - - - - _ - .. .. _ _ .. 3. Law 4131 204.7 - 86.1 50.6 30.0 17.1 8.2 4.5 3.2 2.0 1,3 1,o 0.5 0.2 - - C. Total Extetnal Debt (=A+B) 1396.3 6.5 294.0 191.4 1 027.7 100,4 91,1 ,68.8 ,60.9 53.3 46.0 90.1 34.8 31.0 2_.5 24.8 22.3 20.3 163.4 I/ Interest-froee I Interest estinated at 7 percent p.o. Intereet estimated at 11 percent p.a. Source; Banco Central do Brasil - FIRCE, ALTERNATIVE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND DE3T PROJECTIONS, 1971-77 (In US$ millions) 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 I. Alternative A.1 - 8-9% Growth; No increase in M and LT lending 1. Exports 3,311 3,788 4,437 5,169 5,852 6,617 7,492 2. Imports -3,910 -4,265 -4,705 -5,506 -6,438 -7,496 -8,683 Resource Balance -599 -477 _268 -337 -586 -879 -1,191 3. Interest Payments 1M and LT Debt -104 -146 -189 -242 -307 -373 -433 Net on Financial Credits & Reserves -132 -174 -169 -162 -157 -165 -203 4. Dividends and Transfers -110 -123 -139 -156 -174 -196 -220 Current Account Balance -945 -921 -765 -897 -1,226 -1,613 -2, 07 5. Direct Investment 1131 133 136 139 141 144 6. Amortization of M and LT Debt -294 -307 -356 -435 -543 -673 -784 External Capital Requirement -1,114 -1 097 -988 -1,196 -1, 628 -2 145 -2 687 7. Redium ard Long-Term Loans 73 1,198 1,373 1,492 1 , 54 1, 65 Official Lenders (324) (460) (569) (683) (692) (640) (65o) Local Currency Repayment (46) (54) (49) (0) (0) (0) (1 ) Suppliers, Credits (364) (472) (580) (690) (800) (900) (1,000) 8. Financial Credits (net) 680 439 449 357 181 607 875 Gross Disbursements (1,885) (1,845) (1,852) (2,011) (2,126) (2,578) (3,027) Amortization (-1,205) (-1,406) (-1,403) (-1,654) (-1,963) (-1,971) (-2,152) Reserve Change - 300 -328 -668 -533 -45 -2 -161 Debt Outstanding at Year End: 6,278 7,342 8,568 9,878 11,008 12,682 16,223 M and LT Debt (3,340) (3,965) (4,758) (5,695) (6,644) (7,511) (8,377) Financial Credits (2,938) (3,377) (3,826) (4,183) (Ui,364) (6,971) (5,866) Reserve Level at Year End 1,773 2,101 2,769 3,302 3,347 3,349 3,189 Alternative A.2 - 8-9% Growth; Increase in N and LT Lending 1. Exports 3,311 3,788 4,667 5,169 5,852 6,617 7,692 2. Imports -3,910 -4,265 -4,705 -5,506 -6,438 -7,496 -8,683 Resource Balance -599 -477 -258 -337 -586 -879 -1,191 3. Interest Payments M and LT Debt -104 -146 -189 -243 -313 -382 -472 Net on Financial Credits and Reserves -132 -175 -169 -162 -152 -155 -168 4. Dividends and Transfers -f10 -123 -139 -156 -174 -196 -220 Current a/c Balance -945 -921 -755 -898 -1,225 -1 612 -2 051 5. Direct Investment 125 131 133 13 139 1 39144 f 6. Amortization of M and LT Debt -294 -307 -356 -435 -543 -676 -787 External Caital Requirement -1,114 -1 097 -978 -1,197 _1 629 -2 147 -2 696 7. Medium and Long-Term Loans 734 986 1,205 147 1 4 1;938 Official Lenders (324) (460) (576) (747) (756) (1,038) (1,296) Local Currency Repayment (46) (54) (49) (-) (-) () (-) Suppliers, Credits (364) (472) (580) (690) (800) (900) (1,000) 8. Financial Credits (net) 680 439 442 293 120 212 239 Gross Disbursements (1,885) (1,845) (1,845) (1,945) (2,045) (2,145) (2,265) Amortization (-1,205) (-1,406) (-1,403) (-1,652) (-1,925) (-1,933) (-2,006) Reserve Change -300 -328 -669 -533 -45 -2 -161 Debt Outstanding at Year End 6,278 7,342 8,586 9,878 11,009 12,483 16,229 M and LT Debt (3,340) (3,965) (4,765) (5,766) (6,777) (89039) (9,546) Financial Credits (2,938) (3,377) (3,819) (4,112) (4,232) (4,444) (6,683) Reserve level at Year End 1,773 2,101 2,770 3,303 3,348 3,350 3,189 II. Alternative B - 7-8% Growth 1. Exports 3,311 3,788 4,447 5,169 5,852 6,635 7,492 2. Imports -3,910 -4,172 -4,486 -5,126 -5,847 -6,628 -7,478 Resource Balance -599 -384 -39 - 3 - -5 -11 -14 3. Interest Payments M and LT Debt -104 -146 -187 -239 -298 -352 -397 Net on Financial Credits and Reserves -132 -175 -167 -152 -132 -121 -122 4. Dividends and Transfers -110 -123 -139 -156 -174 -196 -220 Current a/c Balance -945 -828 -532 -504 -599 -680 -725 5. Direct Investment 125 131 133 136 139 14i 1 6. Amortization of N and LT Debt -294 -307 -354 -428 -525 -630 -699 External Capital Requirement -1,114 -1 004 -753 -796 -985 -1,169 -1 280 7. Medium and Long-Term Loans 736 94 1,,2 92 1,260 Official Lenders (324) (460) (569) (683) (692) (640) (650) Local Cirrency Repayment (46) (54) (49) (-) (-) (-) (-) Suppliers' Credits (364) (450) (540) (600) (600) (600) (600) 8. Financial Credits (net) 680 439 662 293 120 212 239 Gross Disbursements (1,885) (1,845) (1,845) (1,945) (2,045) (2,165) (2,265) Amortization (-1,205) (-1,406) (-1,403) (-1,652) (-1,925) (-1,933) (-2,006) Reserve Change . -300 -399 -847 -781 -427 -283 -209 Debt Outstanding at Year End 6,278 7,320 8,517 9,665 10,552 11,375 12,165 M and LT Debt (3,340) (3,943) (4,698) (5,553) (6,320) (6,931) (7,482) Financial Credits (2,938) (3,377' ',819) (4,112) (4,232) (4,444) (6,683) Reserve Level at Year Er._ 1,773 2,172 - C19 3,800 4,227 4,510 6,719 NOTE: Alternative A.1 assumes GDP growth at 8.5 percent p.a.; ICOR of 2.5 in 1976-77; moderate export prospects; continuation of current trends in official lending. Alternative A.2 maintains all the assumptions of A.1 save that official lending is increased.' Alternative B assumes GDP growth at 7.5 percent p.a.; ICOR of 2.5 in 1976-77; moderate export prospects; continuation of current trends in official lending. Table 4.4: LONG RANGE BALANCE OF PAXNTS AND DEBT PROJECTIONS, 1976 -85 (In US$ millions) 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 I. Alternative A.2.a Constant Resource Gap after 1977. 1. Exports 6617 7492 8255 9096 10023 11044 12169 13409 14775 16281 2. Imports -7496 -8683 -9455 -10296 -11223 -12244 -13369 -14609 -15975 -17481 Resource Balance -879 -1191 -1200 -1200 -1200 -1200 -1200 -1200 -1200 -1200 3. Interest Payments M & LT Debt -352 -472 -578 -697 -8i6 -939 -1071 -1203 -1336 -1471 Net on Financial Credits and Reserves -155 -168 -190 -213 -247 -291 -338 -400 -478 -569 4. Dividends and Transfers -196 -220 -245 -275 -307 -343 -383 -428 -477 -533 Current Account Balance -1612 -2051 -2213 -2385 -2570 -2773 -2992 -3231 -3491 -3773 5. Direct Investment 141 144 147 150 T0 '*1536 iS 3 162 * ! M 169 6. Amortization of N & LT Debt -676 -789 -929 -1093 -1292 -1488 -1690 -1909 -2125 -2359 External Oapital Reouirement -21147 -2696 -2995 -3328 -3709 -4105 -4523 -4978 -5450 -5963 7. Mediua and Long-Term Loans 2 mi 3 36 ng75 Official Lenders (1038) (1296) (1413) (1509) (1648) (1811) (1930) (2059) (2189) (2336) Local Currency Repayment (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) () () (-) (_) (_ Suppliers' Credits (900) (1000) (1251) (1336) (1457) (160O) (1702) (1814) (1929) (2054) 8. Financial Credits (Net) 212 239 394 588 630 740 889 1076 1302 1542 Gross Disbursements (2145) (2245) (2495) (2824) (3052) (3357) (3722) (4111) (4521) (4965) Amortization (-1933) (-2006) (-2101) (-2236) (-2422) (-2617) (-2833) (-3035) (-3219) (-3423) Reserve Change -2 161 -63 -h -26 -47 3 29 30 _ 30 Debt Outstanding at Year-End 12483 14229 16358 18698 21141 23805 26635 29676 32971 36514 1M & LT Debt (8039) (9546) (11281) (13033) (1481,6) (16770) (18711) (20676) (22669) (24670) Financial Credits (4444) (4683) (5077) (5665) (6295) (7035) (7924) (9000) (10302) (11844) Reserve Level at Tear-End 3350 3189 3252 3357 3383 3430 3427 3398 3368 3338 II. Aternatie .2.b Gradual DecOli of Resource Ga ,After 197onlb 95. 1. Exports 6617 7492 8255 9096 10023 11044 12169 13409 14775 16281 2. Imports -7496 -8683 -9305 -9966 -10773 -116h4 -12619 -13709 -14925 -16281 Resource Balance -879 -1191 -1050 -870 -750 -600 -450 -300 -150 --- 3. Interest Payments N & LT Debt -382 -472 -578 -697 -816 -939 -1071 -1203 -1336 -1471 Net on Financial Credits and Reserves -155 -168 -190 -202 -213 -223 -223 -224 -226 -227 4. Dividends and Transfers -196 -220 -245 ;275 -307 -343 -383 -428 -477 -533 Current Account Balance -1612 -2051 -2063 -2044 -2086 -2105 -2127 -2155 -2189 -2231 5. Direct Investment 141 i 1 5 3 1560* 159 1 166 6. Amortization of M & LT Debt -676 -789 -929 -1093 -1292 -1488 -1690 -1909 -2125 -2359 External Capital Reo ement -2147 -2696 -2845 -2987 -3225 -3437 -3658 -3902 -4148 -4421 7. Medium andLong-Term Loans 19 3 d 2 9 _M 5 315 3 4 1 1 -- 4 Official Lenders (1038) (1296) (1413) (1509) (1648) (1811) (1930) (2059) (2189) (2336) Local Currewy Repeen (C- ) ( -) (-_) C-_) ( -) C-_) C-_) C-_) (-_) (-_) Suppliorsre CrepayL t (900) (1000) (1251) (1336) (1457) (1600) (1702) (1814) (1929) (2054) 8. Financial Crots (Not) 212 239 244 247 146 72 23 - - Gross Disbursements (2145) (2245) (2345) (2445) (2445) (2445) (2445) (2445) (2445) (2445) Amortization (-1933) (-2006) (-2101) (-2198) (-2299) (-2373) (.2422) (-2445) (-2445) (-2445) Reserve Change -2 161 -63 -104 -26 -47 3 29 30 30 Debt Outstanding at Year-End 12483 14229 16208 18207 20166 22162 24126 26091 28084 30085 M & LT Debt (8039) (9546) (11281) (13033) (14846) (16770) (18711) (20676) (2266S) (24670) Financial Credits (4444) (4683) (4927) (5171) (5320) (5392) (5415) (5415) (5415) (5415) Reserve Level at Year-End 3350 3189 3252 3357 3383 3430 3427 3398 3368 3338 NOTE: Both proJections are a continuation of Alternative A.2 Table 4.3. A.2.a assumes a constant resource gap after 1977. A.2.b assumes a declining gap. Financial ceedits are assuamed tD be used to meet residual foreign exchange nieeds. Table 5.1: CENITRAL GOVERNMENr CASH BUDGET - ESTIMATED EXPENDITURE DISTRIBUTION (In millions of current Cr$) 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 (Est.) A. Revenu_es 3,912.0 5.910.0 6,228.2 8,815.2 12.809.7 17,661.3 22,806.0 1. Total 3,912.0 5,910.0 6,814.0 10,275.4 13,953.1 19,193.8 24,822.0 2. Minue: Revenue Sharing/ - - 585.8 1,460.2 1,143.4 1,532.5 2,016.0 a. Participation Fun (585.8) (1,460.2) (953.6) (1,321.2) (1 680.0) b. Special Fund (-) (-) (189.8) (211.3) (336.0 B. Current Expenditures 2,925.0 4,205.0 5.$95.4 6,628.1 8,955.9 11.628.8 14,239.6 1. Direct Central Governme4t Current Expenditures 1,257.6 2,119.7 2,460.0 3,049.4 4,080.4 4,977.3 6,313.4 a, Civilian Personnel?/ (510-9) (860.2) (1,091.3) (1,210.7) (1,511.1) (1,700.0) (1,973.3) b. Military Personnel/ (439.9) (803.4 912.2) (1,070.9) (1,647.2) (2,400.0) (3057.7) o. Other Direct Current Expenditures (306.8 456.1 456.5) (767.8 (922.1 (877-3 (1 282.4) 2. Central Government Personnel Transfers 1,099.8 1,364.6 2,223.1 2,777.5 3 5YI2 7 4,895.4 5,753.1 a. Family Bonus]/ (82-7) (87-3) (179-3) (235.0) (256.3) (250.0) (286.3) b. Pensions and Annuities3/ (379.5) (478-9) (819.8) (1,153.8) (1,586.4) (2,250.0) (2,448.6) a. Transfere for Personnel Expenditures of Autarkies, Mixed Enterprises and Local Covts.±1/(637.6) (798.4) (1,224.0) (1,388.7) (1,700.0) (2,395.4) (3,017.2) 3. Other Current 'Transfers 567.6 720.7 912.3 801.2 1,332.8 1,756.1 2,173.1 a. Interest5/ n.a. n.a. n.a. (136.0) (462.0) (318.2) 593.0 b. Other n.a. n.a. n.a. (665.2) (870.8) (1,937.9) (1,580.1) C. Current Account Surplus 987.0 1,705.0 632.8 2,187.1 3.853.8 6,032.5 8,566.4 D. Capital Expenditures 1,581.0 2,334.0 2,036.8 3 4,609.6 6.770.8 8,999.9 1. Direct Fixed Investme t 560.0 742.6 723.3 1,003-3 788.2 1,255.4 968.3 2. Financial Investme6/ 87.8 135.3 49.1 37.4 458.5 10.8 33.8 3. Capital Transfers.W 933.2 1,456.1 1,264.4 2,373-1 3,362.9 5,504.6 5,997.8 E. Cash Deficit and Financing 594.0 629.0 1.404.0 1,226.7 755.8 ILB3 411.1 1. Taxpayers' Deposits - - - 238.7 310.9 188.0 2. Adjuetable Treasury Bonds (ORTN) 325.0 648.o 705.0 -90.9 1,470.5 1,383.0 1,321.0 3. USAID - 171.0 - - - - 4. Monetary Authorities 270.0 -191.0 699.0 1,078.9 -1,025.6 -832.5 -887.7 I/ Approximately half of the federal excise and income tax revenues shared by the states and municipalities are utilized to finance capital expenditures. 2/ Inoludes wages anid benefits paid directly by the federal ministries to their personnel through 1969. These are payments made directly by federal ministries. Includes amounts to cover wages, current benefits and social security benefits transferred to decentralized disbursing agents within the Federal Government as well as to local governments (as in the case of transfers to cover teachers' salaries). &/ Includes interest both on Treasury bonds and on external debt. if Primarily for amortization of Federal debt, exolusive of Treasury bonds. 1/ Includes transfers of earmarked revenues to autarkies such as the ONE0 as well as transfers to cover debt amortization payments - particularly on external debt - of various decentralized agencies. Sources: Inspetoria Geral de Financas, (Ministerio da Fazenda), Secretaria de Orcamento e Finaneas (Ministerio de Planejamento; Comissao de Programacao Financeira; Banco Central de Brasil. Table 5.2: CENTRAL GOVERNMENT CASH BUDGET - ESTIMATED EXPENDITURE DISTRIBUTION (In iUllions 1969 cr$) 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 A. Revenues 9342 10649 12809 14748 15873 17248 18338 19568 21133 22828 1. Total 10221 12413 13953 16027 17276 18732 19905 21232 22933 24777 2. Minus: Revenue Sharing 879 1764 1144 1279 1403 1484 1567 1664 1800 1949 a. Participation Fund (879) (1764) (954) (1103) (1169) (1237) (1306) (1387) (1500) (1624) b. Special Fund ( - ) ( - ) (190) (176) (234) (247) (261) (277) (300) (325) B. Current Expenditures 8393 8007 8956 9710 9911 10571 11181 11669 12255 12981 1. Direct Personnel Expenditures I/ 3005 2757 3158 3424 3501 3781 4083 4410 4763 5144 a. Civilian (1638) (1463) (1511) (1420) (1373) b. Military (1368) (1294) (1647) (2004) (2128) 2. Personnel Transfers 3335 3355 3543 4088 4004 4200 4358 4494 4661 4886 a. Family Bonus (269) (284) (256) (209) (199) (200) (200) (200) (200) (200) b. Pensions and Annuities 2/ (1230) (1394) (1587) (1879) (1704) (1789) (1878) (1972) (2071) (2174) C. Autarkies, State Enterprise, qnd Local Government Personne1.2/ (1836) (1678) (1700) (2000) (2100) (2211) (2280) (2322) (2390) (2512) (RFFSA and ECT) 3. Other Direct Current Expenditures / 685 928 922 733 893 938 985 1034 1086 1140 4. other Direct qurrent Transfers 1368 968 1333 1466 1513 1595 1755 1731 1745 1811 a. Interest5/ (NA) (164) (462) (442) (410) (454) (485) (412) (376) (384) b. Other (NA) (803) (871) (1024) (1103) (1191) (1270) (1319) (1369) (1427) C. Current Account Surpluls 949 2642 3854 5038 5962 6677 7157 7899 8878 9847 D. Capital Expenditures 3055 4124 4610 5654 6264 7143 7566 8275 9254 10223 1. Fixed Investment 1085 1212 788 1048 2066 2434 2471 2510 2553 2600 2. Financial Investment 71 45 459 9 24 30 30 30 30 30 .3. Capital Transfers 1897 2867 3363 4596 4174 4679 5071 5735 6671 7593 E. Cash Deficit and Financing 2106 1482 756 616 302 466 415 376 376 376 1. Tax Payers Deposits - 288 311 157 - - - - - - 2. Adjustable Treasury Bonds (ORTN) 1058 130 1471 1155 611 466 415 376 376 376 3. Monetary Authorities 1048 1',()3 -1026 -695 -309 - - - - - I1 Assumes Direct Personnel Expenditures increase at an average annual real rate of 8 percent after 1971. 2/ Assumes that Pensions and Annuities increase at an average annual real rate of 5 percent after 1971. X Assumes that transfers to cover the personnel expenditures of various autarkies and local governmnnts increase at an average annual real rate of 8 percent after 1971. Assumed to increase at an average annual real rate of 5 percent after 1971. X Note that only interest and not monetary ocrrection of ORTDN are included here while the entire discoitnt paid oe CTN is included. Projection assumes that ORTN sales are limited to amounts necessary tr finance the deficit plus old ORTN reaching maturity after 19/1 L!!d that annual LTN sales level of at the equivalent of about Cr$7740 million (1969 CY$) by 1973. Sources: See Tables in Section 10, Statistical Appendix. Table 5.3: CENTRAL GOVrE2LIMNT REVENUES, 1965-71 (In millions of current Cr$) 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 Total Revenues 5,910.0 6,814.0 10,275.4 13,953.1 19,193.8 25,253.0 1. Indirect Taxes 2,653.9 4,287.9 4.415.6 7,684.1 10,397.0 13,054.9 16,065.0 a. Industrialized Productsl/ 1,307.5 2,215.0 2,840.3 5,075.4 6,751.4 8,316.3 10,345.0 b. Import Duties 208.5 415.8 369.8 815.7 1,078.0 1,329.7 1,670.0 c. Petroleum Products Sole Tax!/ 674.0 896.0 1,069.0 1,597.3 2,288.8 2,833.1 3,284,0 d. Electric Energy Sole Tax 97.1 193.6 104.9 157.2 233.3 449.7 605.0 e. Minerals Sole Tax 19.1 28.7 31.5 37.5 44.8 68.2 76.0 f. Road Transport (Passenger) Tax - - 0.1 1.0 0.7 57.9 85.0 g. Stamp Tax_/ 347.7 538.8 - - - - - 2. Direct Taxes 1,022.9 1,339.8 1.551.6 2,176.0 3,767.6 4,899.3 6,455.0 a. Income Tax 1,022.6 1,339.4 1,549.7 2,173.1 3,763.7 4,895.4 6,450.0 (i) Physical Persons4/ (84.2) (227.5) (189.2) (334.9) (622.2) (581.7) (955.0) (ii) Juridical Perso ,5/ (404.6) (481.3) (632.9) (896.0) (1,433.6) (1,817.4) (2,300.0) (iii) Source Withheld- (533.8) (630.6) (727.6) (942.3) (1,708.0) (2,496.3) (3,195.0) b. Real Property Transfer Tax/ 0.3 0.4 1.9 2.9 3.9 3.9 5.0 3. Miscellaneous Receipts and Statistical Discrepancy 8/ 235.2 282.3 846.8 415.3 -211.5 1,244.1 2.733.0 1/ Until January 1, 1967 this tax was known as the Imposto de Consumo. As such it was a turnover tax incident at varying rates on the sale of most manufactures. As of January 1, 1967 not only was the name of the tax changed to "Imposto Sobre os Productos Industrializados" but it was also transformed from a turnover into a value-added tax with compensating increases in tax rates. 2/ This tax is incident on petroleum products at the point of producers' sale. The word "sole" in the title means that this, just as other "sole taxes" excludes any other tax from being incident on the transfer of the products concerned. Until 1968 the petroleum tax was excluded legally, from federal revenues by virtue of being automatically earmarked in its entirety for the federal and state highway autarkies and for mixed enterprises such as Petrobras and the RFFSA. As of 1968, however, the petroleum products tax was incorporated legally into the federal revenue structure. 3/ The stamp tax was extinguished with the general tax reform effective January 1, 1970. 4/ See table 5.8 for details. 5/ See table 5.8 for details. 6/ See table 5.7 for details. 7/ The constitution reserves taxation of real property transfer to the states. This represents federal participation by virtue of application of the tax in the Federal District (Brasilia). 8/ Since a substantial volume of tax payments are in transfer through the banking system there is usually a significant discrepancy between the cash position of the Treasury as of the close of each fiscal year and the total revenues eventually shown to be legally attributable to that year. In addition to such discrepancies this item incorporates, inter alia: "current transfers received by the Federal Government (item 1.4.0.00) and "Diverse Revenues" (e.g. fines- item 1.5.0.00). Sources: Inspetoria Geral de Financas, Centro de Informacoes Economico-Fiscais (Ministerio da Fazenda);Secretaria de Orcamento e Financas (Ministerio de Planeamento e Coordenacao Geral); Comissao de Programacao Financiera; Banco Central do Brasil. I I4 Table 5.4* FEDEEAL GOVERNMENT REVENUES, 1967-76 (In millions of 1969 Cr$) 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1. Indirect Taxes 6,623 9,282 10,397 10,900 11,181 11,818 12,496 13,215 14,256 15,383 a. Industrialized Products (Ipi) 4,260 6,131 6,751 6,944 7,200/ 7,574 7,968.? 8,3823/ 9,0943/ 9,8673/ b. Import Duties (II) 555 985 1,078 1,110 1,1621" 1,208/ 1256/ 1,306/ 1,3585/ 1,4122/ c. Petroleum Products Sole Tax (IUCL) 1,604 1,930 2,289 2,366 2,286 2,446 2,617i 2,800L/ 2,996/ 3,2061/ d. Electric Energy Sole Tax (IUEE) 157 190 233 375 421Y 472 532/ 5952' 6682/ 7499/ e. Minerals Sole Tax (IUM) 47 45 45 57 53! 53 53 53 53 5 f. Road Transport (Passenger) Tax (ITRP) - 1 1 48 592! 653 72 79 87/ 96 2. Direct Taxes 2,327 2,629 3,768 4,091 L4.43 4,797 ,5193 5,487 5,914 a. Income Tax 2,325 2,625 3,764 4,o88 4,489 4,793 5,089 5,483 5 910 6,375 (i) Physical Persons (IRPF) (284) (405) (622) (486) (665)& (724)25/ (791)W/ (863)i5/ (942)25/ (1:027)2/ (ii) Juridical Persons (IRPU) (949) (1,082) (1,434) (1,518) (1,600) (1,720) (1,812)21/ (1,988) (2,180) (2,391)21/ (iii) Source Withheld (IRTF) (1,092) (1,138) (1,708) (2,084) (2,224) (2,349) (2,486)2/ (2,32) (2,78) (2957)/ b. Real Property Transfer Tax 2 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 3. Earmarked Fees - - 162 357 395 437 483 535 588 a. Airport Fee - - 27 25 25 2 27 2933/ 3 3 3632/ b. Road Tax (IUSF) - - 30 134 167 184 3 2023/ 222 3 244/ 268?3/ a. Insurance Ta_ _ d. Port Tax (Taxa Melhoramento Portuario) - - - - 16235/ 18 26/ 203 -/ 227.L6/ 2542Y 28435/ e. Telecommus.ioations Tax (Fistel) - - 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4. Earmarked Current Transfers - - 88 674 1101 1204 1314 1483 1563 a. Salario Eduoacao - - 94 88 17491/ 184 2 195 5 207./ 219 2 23235/ b. National lntegration Program - - - - 500o2/ 549. 6042/ 6632 727 79722/ c. Northeast Land Reform and Devel. Program - - - - _ 368 405 444 487 534 5. Earmarked Industrial Revenues - - _ 15 j-38/ 320/ 2/ j3/ 4 2 6.31/1 6. Other (includes unclassified and statistical discrepancies 1,271 502 -395 771 5373.?! 5833.?! 6333.?! 6873.?! 7453.?! 808a3. TOTAL 10,221 12,l13 13,953 16,027 17,276 18,732 19,905 21,232 22,933 L2a111 See footnotes on following pages. Table 5.4 (Footnotes) Page 2 2/ For 1971: Nominal rPI(70) x 1.20 x 1.09 x 0.97 - Zfi.376 x IPI(70) x 1.2 x 1.09 x 0.97 2 12 x 1.2 7 = Nominal 1P171 = NCr$10,344.8 million Where: 1.20 = It rate of inflation 1971 1.09 = I rate of increase in taxed industrialized products sales 1971 0.7 = effect of reduction IPI rates for purposes of the PIS 2L-3 x IPI70 x 1.20 x 1.09 x 0.97 x 1.2 7 = effect of postponing remittance period for IPI incident on certain product categories. 2 .12 2 For 1972-74: real IPIt x 1.085 x 0.97 = IPIt + 1; reflecting continued reduction of IPI rates for purposes of the AS. J For 1975-76: real IPIt x 1.085 = IPIt + 1. v For 1971: Nominal II70 x 1.15 x 0.95 = Nominal II 1971 = Cr$3,284.0 million Where: 1.15 equals It percentage exchange rate devaluation 1.15 equals It rate of import increase 0.95 reflects impact further import liberalization / For 1972 and subsequent years: Real IIt x 0.958 x 1.120 x 0.97 = IIt + 1 Where: 0.958 reflects impact of exchange rate policy 1.120 = It rate of import growth 0.970 reflects impact of continuing import liberalization. / For 1971 PUCL is shown as budgeted Cr$3,284 million in nominal terms. In line with this budgeted amount the Government reduced IUCL rates by about 20% as of 5/1/71 when the CIF prices of crude oil imports increased in dollar terms. / For 1972 and subsequent years. Real IUCLt x 1.115 x 0.958 = IUCLt + 1 Where: 1.115 = It the rate of increase in petroleum products consumption 0.958 reflects impact of exchange rate policy. / For 1971: Nominal IMEC x 1.20 x 1.122 = Nominal 10EE1971 = Cr$605.3 million Where: 1.20 = It rate of inflation in 1971 1.722 = It rate of increase in energy consumption projected by Eletrobras. / For 1972 and subsequent years: Real IUEt x 1.122 = Real IDEEt + 1. 22/ For 1971: Nominal I"M70 x 1.111 = Nominal IUM71 = Cr$75.8 million Where 1.111 = It rate of nominal increase in IUM yields projected by Government. 22/ For 1972 and subsequent years IUM assumed remain constant in real terms. 22/ For 1971: Nominal ITRP70 x 1.474 = Nominal ITRP71 = Cr$85.3 million Where 1.474 = It rate of increase in nominal ITRP yield projected by Government. 23/ For 1972 and subsequent years: Real ITRPt x 1.10 = Real ITRPt x 1.10 = Real ITRPt + 1. 1/ In 1970 a change in requirements for remitting payment of residual personal income tax liabilities postponed a portion of such reoeipts until 1971. Although some further changes have been made, the distribution of residual liability income tax payments can be expected to continue to be divided between the two years subsequent to that in which the income was earned. Another innovation introduced recently is the reimbursement of overpayments made against personal income tax liabilities through the withholding system. Thus in projecting net nominal revenues from this source for 1971 the following calculation was made: (a) IRPF1969 x (It rate of inflation 1969) x (It rate economic growth 1969) = IRPFl970 (b) IRPF1970 + overpayment reimbursementl970 - actual collections 1970 - IRPF shifted into 1971 (o) IRP1970 x (It rate of inflation 1970) x (It rate economic growth 1970) =1?PF 1971 d) Overpayment reimbursement 1970 x (It rate of inflation 1970) x (average real wage rate increase 1970) = Overpayment reimbursement 1971 e) IRPF1971 + IRPF1970 shifted into 1971 - (IRPF1971 x IRPF 1970 shifted into 1971) - overpayment reimbursementl971 = actual collection in 1971 (i.e. Cr$956 million in nominal terms.) IRPF 1970 L/ Similar calculations were made for 1972 and subsequent years. Rates of economic growth and inflation of 0.5% and 20% respectively were assumed. 6 For 1971: IRPJ1970 x 1.198 x 1.100 x 0.96 = IRPF1971 (Cr$2,299.1 million in nominal terms). The last term on the left reflects the fact that terms must contribute 2% of their tax liability to the PIS in 1971 and that this contribution is made without prejudice to other investment tax credits which presently take about 50% of total tax liabilities. IL Calculations for 1972 and subsequent years reflect the fact that the PIN contribution is to be increased to 3% of tax liability in 1972 and to 5% in 1973. A 9.7% rate of growth in real business incomes is assumed throughout. Table 5.4 (Footnotes) Page 3 Improved Nominal Increased 1 For 1971: Category 1970 Weight x Inflation x Real Increase x Administration = Factor Earned incomes 0.509 1.200** 1.030 ) Income remitted abroad 0.257 1.150 1.110 1.010 1.280 Capital income 0.123 1.200 1.110 ) Other (freight, lotteries, etc.) 0.217 1.200 1.085 ) Improved administration Thus: IRTF1970 x 1.280 = IRTF 1971 = Cr$3,195.4 million in nominal terms. * Note that this rather low rate reflects: (a) the policy of holding real wage increases in the taxable categories to 3% annually, and (b) the low progressivity of the withholding tax as regards higher level incomes. ** Reflects the policy of adjusting the exchange rate by a percentage equal to the difference between Brazilian and U.S. inflation. )2/ For 1972 and subsequent years the same rates of change described in footnote .,/ are projected to continue to apply. Thus, in millions of 1969 Cr$: Capital Improved Year Wages Remittances Income Other Administration Total 1972 1,127 475 315 410 22 2,349 :1973 1,261 506 350 445 24 2,486 1974 1,196 539 389 483 25 2,632 1975 1,2:32 574 432 524 26 2,788 1976 1i26(9 611 480 569 28 2,957 20/ As budgeted for 1971 (i.e. Or$36 million in nominal terms). S/ Por 1972 and subsequent years assumed to increase by 8.5% annually in real terms. .2/ As budgeted for 2971 (i.e. Cr$160 million in nominal terms). S/ l'oi 1972 and subsequent years assumed to increase by i0% annTually in real terms. v/ Token amount included in 1971 budget. L/ As budgeted for 1971 (i.e. Cr$232.8 million in nominal terms). T/ For 1972 and subsequent years assumed to increase by 12% annually in real terms. W7~/ As budgeted in 1971 (i.e. Cr$250 million in nominal terms). S§/ For 1972 and subsequent years assumed to increase by 6% annually in real terms. SQ/ For 1971 and subsequent years PIN transfers are assumed to equal 15% of the income tax liability of juridical percooyiu. (In 1971 this would amount to Cr$718 million in nominal terms). .39/ As budgeted in 1971 (i.e. Cr$18 million in nominal terms). Dfl/ For 1972 and subsequent years assumed to increase by 11% annually in real terms. D3~/ Assumed to increase by 8.5% annually in real terms after 1970 (amounting to Cr$1,202 million in nominal terms in 1971). Sources: Centro de Informacoes Economico Fiscais, Ministerio da Fazenda, Secretaria de Orcamento e Financas, Ministerio de Planejamento. Mission estimates. I I I Table 5.5: EARMARKED REVENUES OF THE CENTRAL GOVERNMENT (In millions current Cr$) 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 Earmarked Revenues 1791.2 3252.2 3864.0 5258.0 7596.2 1. Participation Fund / 585.8 1460.2 953.6 1321.2 1680.0 a. For State Govts. 292.9 730.0 476.8 660.6 840.0 b. For Municipal Govts. 292.9 730.2 476.8 660.6 840.0 2. Special Fund ] - - 189.8 211.3 336.0 a. For State Govts. - - 189.8 211.3 336.0 3. Petroleum Products Sole Tax 4 1069.0 1597.3 2288.8 2833.1 3284.0 a. For Federal Ministries 30.0 53.6 70.1 143.5 166.2 1. Ministry of Air (30.0) (45.6) (65.5) (137.8) (159.6) 2. Min. of Mines & Energy (-) (8.0) (4.6) (5.7) (6.6) b. For Autarkies 406.2 605.7 874.6 1139.4 1320.8 1. DNER (406.2) (605.7) (867.9) (1074.3) (1245.3) DNPM (-) (-) (6.7) (36.8) (42.7) CNEN (-) (-) (-) (28.3) (32.8) C. For Local Govts. 413.7 618.5 886.2 10-96.9 1271.6 d. For State Enterprises 219.1 319.5 457.8 453.3 525.4 1. Petrobras (133.6) (191.7) (274.7) (226.6) (262.7) 2. RFFSA (85.5) (127.8) (183.1) (226.6) (262.7) 4. Eletric Energy Sole Tax 5/ 104.9 157.2 233.3 449.7 605.0 a. For Federal Ministries 1.1 1.6 2.3 4.5 6.0 (Mines & Energy) b. For Autarkies (DNAEE) 40.9 61.3 91.0 175.4 (236.0) c. For States & Municipalities. 62.9 94.3 140.0 269.8 (363.D0 5. Minerals Sole Tax 6/ 31.5 37.5 44.8 68.2 76rC a. For Autarkies (DNPM, CPCAN) 3.2 3.8 4.5 6.8 7X6 b. For Local Govts. 28.3 33.7 40.3 61.4 68-4 6. Passenger Tax (for DNER) - 0.7 57.9 85.0 7. Fees - - 59.0 193.6 512.7 a. Airport Fee (Air Ministry) - - 27.0 30.0 36.0 b. Road Tax (for DNER) - - 30.0 160.0 240.0 c. Insurance Tax (for DNER) - - - - 0.1 d. Port Tax (for DNPVN) - - - - 232.8 e. Merchant Marine Tax (for SUNAMAM)_7J - - - - - f. Telecommunications tax (Min. Comm.) - 2.0 3.6 3.8 8. Current Transfers - - 94.0 105.0 968.0 a. Salario Educacao - - 94.0 105.0 250.0 b. National Integration Program 9- - - - 718.0 9. Industrial Revenues (Min. Agr.) - - - 18.0 49.5 See footnotes on page 2. Page 2 Table 5.5: Footnotes _J The 1966 Constitution drastically modified the system of federal revenue earmarking, prohibiting any earmarking of the federal income, industrialized products and import taxes save for a provision that income and industrial- ized products tax receipts be shared with local governments. __ As of 1/1167 the Constitution provided that 20 percent of income and industrialized products tax receipts be shared with local governments on the basis of several criteria including need. As of 1/1/69 the local govern- ment share was reduced to 10 percent. Save for 1971, the figures represent amounts actually distributed rather than the application of respective sharing percentages to the tax receipts shown in Table 5.3 . Originally, the Constitution required local governments to use at least half of these shared revenues for capital expendi- tures. This requirement was extinguished subsequently. In partial compensation for the reduction of Participation Fund revenue sharing, the Special Fund amounting to 2 percent of income and industrialized products tax receipts and destined to assist in the financing of state investment programs was created as of 1/1/69. Amounts shown for Petroleum Products Sole Tax (IUCL) earmarking represent the application of statutory earmark- ing percentages to the total actual or estimated (1971) amount of petroleum tax receipts rather than amounts actually repassed to beneficiaries. In 1970 and 1971, for example, expenditure containment provisions in pre- sidential decrees regulating the Federal Government's cash programs set aside 10 percent of petroleum tax revenues earmarked for federal ministries, autarkies and mixed enterprises in "reserve funds" to be liberated only in the event that such liberation be consistent with the programmed overall cash deficit. The statutory distribution of Petroleum tax revenues has varied during recent years as indicated below: BENEFICIARIES QUOTAS 1967 1968 1969 From 5/1/70 1. Federal Ministries 2.8 3.3 3.0 5.0 Ministry of Air 2.8 2.8 2.8 4.8 Ministry of Nines & Energy - 0.5 0.2 0.2 2. Federal Autarkies 38.0 38.0 38.3 40.3 DNER (roads) 38.0 38.0 38.0 38.0 DNPM (Mineral Products) - - 0.3 1.3 CNEN (Nuclear Energy) - - - 1.0 3. State Enterprises 20.5 20.0 20.0 16.0 RFFSA (railways) 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 Petrobras (petroleum) 12.5 12.0 12.0 8.0 4. Local Governments 38.7 38.7 38.7 38.7 States (roads) 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.7 Municipalities (roads) 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 TOTAL 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 5/ The Electric Energy Sole Tax (IUEE) is earmarked as follows: States and Municipalities - 60 percent; Eletrobras - 39 percent; Ministry of Mines and Energy - 1 percent. Note that in the case of the IUCL, 10 percent was set aside in expenditure containment reserve funds in 1970 and 1971. 6/ Minerals Sole Tax (IUM) revenues are earmarked as follows: Local Governments - 90 percent; National Department of Mineral Production (DNNM) and National Coal Commsission (CPCAN) 10 percent. Ten percent of IUM revenues were also set aside in reserve in 1970 and 1971. 2/ Although a decision was made in 1970 to incorporate Merchant Marine tax revenues in the budget just as IUCL revenues were so incorporated in 1968, no reference is made to this tax,either on the receipts or the allocations side, in the 1971 budget. X/ Salario Educacao tax revenues are shown in the 1971 budget as a current transfer to the Federal Government apparent- ly in reflection of the fact that this is an obligation of employers to their employees imposed as a percentage of payrolls which the Government administers through the Ministry of Education. 9J Starting in 1971 the Federal Government will preempt 30 percent of resources set aside by juridical persons in accordance with the income tax credits made available for investment in Northeast Brazil, in the Amazon region, and in the tourism, fishing, forestry and aircraft industry sectors of the economy. These resources will fund the National Integration Program which has as its immediate objectives the construction of the Cuiaba-Santarem and Trans-Amazonica highways and the colonization of areas served by these roads. Thus, the amount preempted is shown as a current transfer from the tax paying firms to the Federal Government. Table 5.6: EARMARKED REVENUES OF THE CENTRAL GOVERNMENT (In millions 1969 Cr$) 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 Earmarked Revenues 2687 3929 3864 4390 5287 6054 6522 7034 7622 8260 1. Participation Fund 879 1764 954 1103 1169 123/ 1306 1387 1500 1624 a. For State Governments 440 882 477 552 585 619 653 794 750 812 b. For Municipal Governments 439 882 477 551 584 618 65' 693 750 812 2. Special Fund - - 190 176 234 247 261 277 300 325 a. For State Governments - - 190 176 234 247 261 277 300 325 3. Petroleum Products Sole Tax 1604 1930 2289 2366 2286 2446 2617 2800 2996 3206 a. For Federal Ministries 45 65 70 120 114 122 131 140 150 160 1. Ministry of Air (45) (55) (65) (115) (110) (117) (126) (134) (144) (154) 2. Ministry of Mines & Energy ( - ) (10) (5) (5) (4) (5) (5) (6) (6) (6) b. For Autarkies 609 732 875 951 921 986 1055 1128 1207 1292 1. DNER (609) (732) (868) (897) (869) (929) (995) (1064) (1138) (1218) 2. DNPM ( - ) ( - ) (7) (31) (30) (32) (34) (36) (39) (42) 3. CNEN ( - ) ( - ) ( - ) (23) (22) (25) (26) (28) (30) (32) c. For Local Governments 621 747 886 916 885 947 1013 1084 1159 1241 d. For State Enterprises 329 386 458 379 366 391 418 448 480 513 1. Petrobras (200) (232) (275) (190) (183) (196) (209) (224) (240) (257) 2. RFFSA (129) (154) (183) (189) (183) (195) (209) (224) (2/iO) (25,6) 4. Electric Energy Sole Tax 157 190 233 375 421 472 530 595 668 749 a. For Federal Ministries (Mines & Energy) 2 2 2 4 4 5 5 6 7 7 b. For Autarkies (DNAEE) 61 74 91 146 164 184 207 232 260 293 c. For Local Governments 94 114 140 225 253 283 318 357 401 449 5. Minerals Sole Tax 47 45 45 57 53 53 53 53 53 53 a. For Autarkies (DNPM, CPCAN) 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 b. For Local Governments 42 40 40 51 48 48 48 48 48 48 6. Road Transport (Passenger) Tax - - 1 48 59 65 72 79 87 96 7. Earmarked Fees - - 59 162 357 395 437 483 535 588 a. Airport Fee (Air Ministry) - - 27 25 25 27 29 31 34 36 b. Road Tax (for DNER) - - 30 134 167 184 202 222 244 268 c. Port Tax (for DNPVN) - - - - 162 181 203 227 254 284 d. Telecommunications Tax (Minn. Comm.) - - 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 8. Current Transfers - - 94 88 674 1101 1204 1314 1433 1563 a. Salario Educacao - 94 88 174 -174 I-3 -27 219 Z21 b. National Integratipn Program - - - 500 549 604 663 727 797 c. Northeast Land Reform and Dev't Program - - - - - 368 405 444 487 534 9. Industrial Revenues - - - 15 34 38 42 46 50 56 Sources: Tables 5.4 and 5.5, Statistical Appendix. Table 5.7: COMPOSITION OF INCOME TAX REVENUES COLLECTED AT SOURCE (In millions current Cr$) 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 Total Revenues 534.0 631.0 728.0 942.0 1708.0 2496.Q Wages and Salaries 112.0 161.0 225.0 265.0 445.9 701.4 Nonemployee Personal Services 23.0 38.0 54.0 80.0 335.1 570.0 Residents abroad 100.0 122.0 229.0 265.0 343.1 502.2 on Interest Remittances (143.4) (205.2 on Profits Remittances (4.0) (13.2 on Dividend Remittances (55.7) (96.7 on Tech. and Admin. Services (47.6) (34.3 on Royalties Remittances (14.2) (19.0 on Film Rentals (5.2) (5.2 Others (73.0) (128.6 Dividends on Bearers Shares 12.0 15.0 18.0 35.0 100.9 110.7 Interest 6.0 23.0 14.0 31.0 55.8 78.5 Other Income from Financial Assets 48.0 63.0 54.0 71.0 102.1 116.7 Additions to Company Capital 174.0 150.0 113.0 115.0 61.8 13.7 Revaluation of Fixed Assets (148.0) (119.0) (65.0) (-) (19.6) (11.5 Capitalization of Reserves and/or Profits (26.0) (31.0) (48.0) (115.0) (42.2) (2.2 Freight 1.0 5.0 11.0 20.0 94.6 127.2 Lotteries 14.0 16.0 26.0 33.0 57.9 132.5 Personal Real Estate Profits 25.0 33.0 2.0 - - - Public Works Contractors - - - - 30.0 67.3 Other (includes unclassified and Statistical Discrepancies) 19.0 5.0 -18.0 27.0 80.8 76.1 Source: Ministry of Finance. Table 5.8 : TRENDS IN INCOME TAX ADMINISTRATION 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 Physical Persons Number of Declarations (thousands) 354 529 468 584 4277 7024 Exempt 1/ 188 236 334 2632 4925 Taxable 166 278 232 250 1595 1949 With Residual Tax Liability n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. (1172) (1333) With Residual Tax Credit 2/ n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. (423) (616) Actual Tax Liability (Cr$ millions) 94 203 219 3/ 557 1226 n.a. Gross Income n.a. n.a. 2956- 7306 33187 - Reductions n.a. n.a. -468 -1191 -4480 Net Income 963 2438 2488 6115 28707 - Exemptions -242 -788 -738 -1911 -12787 Net Taxable Income 721 1650 1750 4203 15920 Assessed Tax Liability 94 2D3 227 568 1338 - Tax Credit for Share Investment - - -8 -11 4/ -112 (effective Average Tax Rate, in %) (13.0) (12.3) (12.5) (13.5) (7.7) Actual Tax Liability (Cr$ millions) 94 203 219 557 1226 n.a. Withheld at Source 5/ n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 511 n.a. To be Collected i/ n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 759 1024 To be Reimbursed 7/ n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. -44 -111 Juridical Persons Number of Declarations (thousands) 320 318 317 342 384 721 Exempt 214 243 245 271 304 357 Taxable 106 75 72 71 80 364 Actual Tax Liability 8/ (Cr$ millions) n.a. n.a. n.a. 1641 1225 1684 Assessed Tax Liability n.a. n.a. n.a. 2429 2396 3466 - Investment Tax Credits -172 -302 -525 -788 -1171 -1781 Northeast (172) (252) (368) (466) (627) (939) Amazon (-) (50) (105) (165) (260) (384) Fishing Industry (-) (-) <-) (44) (139) (234) Tourism (-) (-) (-) (36) (45) (68) Reforestation (-) (-) (-) (12) (41) (115) Brazilian Aircraft Company (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) (3) State of Espirito Santo (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) (7) Share Investment (-) (-) (53) (65) (59) (32) Other (-H- - - - - 1/ Exempt by virtue of showing net income totalling less than the minimum taxable. 2/ Instances where actual tax liability is less than the amount of tax withheld at source. 3/ Includes residents of Guanabara and Sao Paulo only; who accounted for 70.5 percent of assessed tax liability in 1967. 4/ Excludes share investment tax credits taken by residents of Acre, Maranhao, Alagoas and Guanabara. 5/ Taxes on the income reported in the declaration of physical persons is withheld during the year previous to that in which the declarations are made. 6/ Residual tax liabilities in income reported by physical persons are discharged over periods extending beyond th-e year in which the declaration is made. For example, with respect to declarations made in 1970 tax payers were permitted to dis- charge residual liabilities in as many as 8 monthly payments extending up until May, 1971. For declarations made in 1971 the discharge of residual liabilities may be made in as many as 12 monthly payments extending up until June, 1972. 7/ Prior to 1969 only those individuals with gross incomes of 5 times the highest minimum wage or greater were requested to file income declarations. In 1969 the filing requirement was extended to all persons with incomes in excess of the Cr$3500 (US$862.07) in minimum exemption. With this change the fiscal authorities had to install facilities for reim- bursing tax payers whose source withheld tax exceeded their income tax liability. 8/ With certain exceptions the income of juridical persons is not subjected to source withheld or any other form of pay- as-you-go income taxations. The income tax liability shown here is that established by income declarations filed during the year following that in which the income is earned. Income tax liabilities are discharged over periods extending into the year following that in which the declaration is filed. Source: Centro de Informacoes Economica-Fiscais. Table 5.9: LOCAL GOVERNMENT FISCAL OPERATIONS!/ (In millions of 1969 Cr$) 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 A. Current Revenues 12,072 13,274 14,647 15,801 16,959 18,203 19,541 21,356 23,342 1. IndirectTaxes 11,279 12,441 13,772 14,882 15,994 17,190 18,477 20,239 22,169 a. ICM21 (10,540) (11,588) (12,689) (13,622) (14,623) (15,698) (16,852) 18,470 (20,243) b. Road Tax / (-) (48) (201) (303) (333) (366) (403) (443) (487) c. Othere!/ (739) (805) (882) (957) (1,038) (1,126) (1,222) (1,326) (1,439) 2. Direct TaxeeW 793 833 875 919 965 1,013 1,064 1,117 1,173 B. Current Expenditures 11,022 12,076 13,093 14,248 15,367 16,578 17,905 19,335 20,895 1. Consumption:' 7,636 8,397 9,129 9,960 10,765 11,636 12,591 13,624 14,742 2. Subsidies 404 404 404 404 404 404 404 404 404 3. Transfers to Private SeotorL/ 2,982 3,275 3,560 3,884 4,198 4,538 4,910 5,313 5,749 C. Current Account Savings 1,0S0 1.198 1,554 !J5 1,692 1,625 1,636 2,021 2,47Z D. Capital Expenditures .3$84 3,881 14,49 4,7210 $J4L 6,806 6,12 6,657 6.913 1. Fixed Investment§/ 2,762 3,251 3,991 4,405 4,823 5,189 5,485 5,978 6,277 2. Capital Transfers to Federal Enterprise er 795 586 449 489 495 503 510 532 472 3. Amortization of Foreign LoansiP/ 24 44 59 76 96 113 130 147 164 4. Repayments to OR1N account 3 - - - - - - - - E. Financing 2 534 2,683 2,94 3,417 3±535 4,180 4489 4,636 4,466 1. Foreign Loans (gross)LO2 41 162 201 218 235 245 264 288 300 2. Transfers of Earmarked Revenues 2,665 2,304 2,559 2,763 2,946 3,141 3,360 3,627 3,919 3. Other Net Internal TransactionsL/ -172 217 185 436 614 794 865 721 247 v ThiE table represents no more than an indicative projection departing from 1968 data obtained by the JFV for r.ational accounts purposes. 2 For 1969-70 ICE growth is assumed to equal that of GDP in real terms: For 1971-74 real ICMt is assumed to equal real IClt x 1.085 (the rate of GDP growth) x 0.97 (effect of programmed ICM rate reduction) x 1.02 (the effect of the local government tax administration improvement program now getting underway). For 1975-77 real ICMt is assumed to equal real ICMt x 1.085 x 1.01. / Real road tax revenues are assumed to increase at the rate of 10% annually. v Other "indirect tax revenues are assumed to increase in real terms proportionately with GDP. 5 Indirect tax revenues are assumed to have a less than unitary elasticity to real changes in GDP owing to the fact that - at the local government level - such taxes are primarily levied on real property requiring periodic reassessment of revenues are to be elastic. Thus indirect tax revenues are assumed to increase 5% annually on real terms. , The projection of local government consumption expenditures is a composit of the projections of local government highway and education expenditures contained in tables 10.2 and 1010and of the assumption that other local government consumption expenditures (amounting to Cr$526/million in 1968 increase by 8% annually in real terms. i Based on historical relationships, current local government transfers (including those to private schools) are assumed to amount to 39% of consumption expenditures throughout the period. / A composit of the local government water and sewage road and education investment projections contained in tables 10.2 and 105 and of the assumption that other local government investments (amounting to 66% of the total in 1968) increase by 9% annually in real terms. / Capital subscriptions anticipated by Eletrobras and COSIPA. / A construction based on the information that local government external debts totalled US$150 million as of end 1970 and on the assumptions that terms on this and on new debt would average 8 years and that gross external disbursements would finance 5% of local government fixed investment. Under these assumptions outstanding local government external debt would increase to US$357 million by end 1976 as gross disbursements average US$64 million annually during the 1971-76 period. 3l/ Includes not only net internal borrowing, but also net discretional transfers between public sector agencies. Source: Mission estimates. Table 5.10: PUBLIC SECTOB SAVIN3S,1968-76 (In millions 1969 Cr$) 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 Public Sector Savings 11403 13455 15525 17116 20109 22559 25118 27941 30748 1. Central Government 1/ 2642 3854 5038 5962 6677 7157 7899 8878 9847 Revenues (Excl. Rev. Sharing) (10649) (12809) (14748) (15873) (17248) (18338) (19568) (21133) (22828) - Current Exp. & Transfer (-8007) (-8956) (-9710) (-9911) (-10571) (-11181) (-11669) (-12255) (-12981) 2. Local Government 2814 2342 2833 2956 3076 3192 3300 3818 4396 Revenues 2/ (12072) (13274) (14647) (15801) (16959) (18203) (19541) (21356) (23342) Plus Revenue Sharing (1764) (1144) (1279) (1403) (1484) (1567) (1664) (1800) (1949) - Current Exp. & Transfer (-11022) (-12076) (-13093) (-14248) (-15367) (-16578) (-17905) (-19338) (-20895) 3. Social Security Agencies 3/ 168 293 -79 706 753 853 950 1048 1145 Revenues (5332) (6161) (6773) (8195) (9231) (10156) (11080) (12004) (12929) Current Trans. from CG (640) (567) (599) (562) (615) (623) (631) (639) (647) - Current Exp. & Transfer (-5804) (-6435) (-7451) (-8051) (-9093) (-9926) (-10761) (-11595) (-12431) 4. Federal Autarkies 4/ 340 375 349 228 246 246 251 262 271 Revenues (494) (519) (495) (391) (409) (431) (449) (470) (489) Current Trans. from CG (1016) (1036) (1071) (1230) (1277) (1330) (1403) (1501) (1578) - Current Exp. & Transfer (-1170) (-1180) (-1217) (-1393) (-1440) (-1515) (-1601) (-1709) (-1796) 5. Coffee Account 5/ 721 664 995 -356 290 478 420 305 283 Coffee Contribution Quota (1285) (1651) (1254) (1070) (1292) (1369) (1430) (1511) (1600) Current Trans. from CG ( - ) ( - ) ( - ) ( - ) ( - ) ( - ) ( - ) ( - ) ( - ) Net Coffee Sector Exp. (Includes Coffee (-564) (-987) (-260) (-1426) (-1001) (-891) (-1010) (-1205) (-1317) Production Financing) 6. Official Credit Agencies 2860 3361 3591 3745 4476 5457 6509 6809 7231 Tenure Guarantee Fund (Net) 6/ (1387) (1429) (1521) (1346) (1141) (952) (881) (779) (738) Financial Transactions Tax 77 (447) (360) (400) (418) (455) (496) (541) (590) (643) Social Integration Fund (Net) 8/ ( - ) ( - ) ( - ) (407) (1462) (2415) (3296) (3401) (3498) Investment Tax Credit Resources 9/ (909) (1310) (1335) (1232) (976) (1077) (1178) (1289) (1414) BNDE Operating Profits 7/ (47) (121) (156) (143) (160) (176) (194) (213) (234) BNH Operating Profits 67 (70) (141) (179) (199) (282) (341) (419) (537) (704) Current Trars. from CG (- ) ( - ) ( - ) ( - ) ( - ) ( - ) ( - ) ( - ) ( - ) 7. Mixed Enterprises 10/ 1858 2566 2798 3875 4591 5176 5789 6821 7575 Retained Operating Surplus (1105) (1795) (2218) (3319) (4048) (4697) (5412) (6532) (7332) Current Trans. from CC (753) (771) (580) (556) (543) (479) (377) (289) (243) Total Public Sector Savings 117546 128125 140297 152222 165160 179198 194429 210995 228929 1/ See Table 5.2. 2/ See Table 5.9. 3/ See Table 10.16. 4/ See Tables 10.1, 10.3, 10.5, 10.6, 10.11, 10.13, 10.14 and 10.21. 5/ See Table 6.6. 6/ See Table 6.8. 7/ See Table 6.9. 8/ Projected to equal value of revenues foregone by Central and State Governments as the result of IPI and ICM tax rate reductions and corporate income tax credit for respective deposits by the firm in the Social Integration Fund minus worker withdrawals from the Fund projected to rise gradually from 2 percent of annual deposits in 1972 to 20 percent in 1976. 9/ Projected to equal 35 percent of corporate income tax liabilities in 1971 and 25 percent thereafter plus 5 percent of personal income tax liabilities throughout. 10/ See tables 10.4, 10.8, 10.9, 10.17, 10.18 and 10.19. 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SUMMARY ACCOUNTS - MONETARY AUTD RITIES' (Cr$ millions, end of period balances) 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 Cr$1.85 Cr$2.20 Cr02.70 Cr$3.20 Cr$3.83 Cr$4.35 Cr$4.95 I. Net Foreign Assets -1.227 -824 -636 -1,225 -1,112 1.921 5.20 II. Net Domestic Credit 3,L6 14.292 5,113 6 9.626 9,58 9.258 1. Treasury Cash Budget (net) 1,759 2,029 1,838 2,537 3,617 2,591 1,758 2. Treasury Bond and Bill Account - - 279 296 117 417 622 a. Bank of Brazil (-) (_) (13) (30) (40) (333) (527) b. Resolution 21 () () (19) (19) (7) (6) (6) c. Assistance to Federal Units (-) (-) (247) (247) (70) (78) (89) 3. Extrabudgetary Government Accounts -158 -164 -374 -138 -96 -663 -461 a. Autarkies (94 (93) (162) (247 (294) (357) (627) b. Local Governments (l5 (16 (15 (15 (22 (20 (21 c. Minimum Price Agencies 22 (274 (272 (316 432 417 (755) d. Non-Bank Financial Institutions _ 1 (35 (62 342 294 (295 e. National Development Bank _ ( (- (150 480 830 (1,355 f. Purchase and Sale of Goods (149 (25 (260 (361 633 912 (1,2551 g. Public Sector Deposits (-) (-438 (-803 (-1,118 (-1,109 (-1,748 (-2 441 (-3,034) h. Financial Operations Tax (-) ) (- (- (-180 (-551 (-1,052 (-1,735) 4. Commercial Banks (excluding Coffee) -282 -785 -722 -1,211 -1,266 -1,206 -865 a. Rediscounts (127) (104) (267) (283) (692) (826) (895) b. Compulsory Deposits (-) (-409) (-889) (-989 (-1,494) (-1,958) (-2,032) -1,760) 5. Coffee Account -149 35 -270 -205 -832 -1,537 -2,729 a. Loans to Coffee Sector (190) (156) (132) (262 460 850 (1,101 b. Coffee Rediscounts (70 133 (88 157 (263 630 (640 c. Coffee Defense mund (net) (-409) (-324 (-490 (-624 (-1,555 (-3,017) (-4,470 6. Credit to Private Sector (exol. coffee production credit) 1,072 1,381 2,157 3,o42 4,903 7,528 10,425 a. Of which: FUNDAG (-) (-) (-) (-) (_) (_) (104) 7. PL-480 and USAID Counterpart -208 -221 -195 -223 -333 -505 -190 8. Allocation of SDR's - - - - - - -308 9. Capital and Unclassified (net) 1,342 2,017 2,40o 2,865 3,516 2,964 1,006 III. Monetary Liabilities 2,149 3,468 4.7 5$J8 8,514 11,510 14,465 1. Currency Issue 1,388 2,073 2,741 3,458 4,970 6,214 7,638 a. With Public (1,155) (1,729) (2,343) (2,944) (4,080) (5,390) (6,750) b. In Banks (233) (344) (398) (514) (890) (824) (888) 2. Private Seotor Deposits 410 733 910 1,452 4,329 3,391 4,512 a. Demand (388) (647) (816) (1,273) (2,041) (2,907) (3,737) b. Time and Savings (22) (86) (94) (179) (288) (484) (775) 3. Commercial Bank Voluntary Deposits 351 662 826 828 1,215 1,905 2,315 / Includes the Central Bank and the Bank of Brazil. Sources Central Bank and staff estimates. Table 6.2: SUMMYRY ACCOUNTS - COMMERCIAL BANKS (Cr$ millions, end of period balances) 1964 1965 1966 1967 196B 1969 1970 Cr$1.85= Cr$2.20= Cr$2.70= Cr$3.20= Cr$3.83- Cr$4.35= Cr$4.95= US$1.00 US$1.00 US$1.00 US$1.00 US$1.00 US$1.00 US$1.00 I. Net Foreign Assets 1/ 81 64 141 148 -381 -1235 -2327 II. Net Domestic Credit 1932 3719 4357 7234 11445 16597 22868 1. Treasury Cash Budget - - 2; Treasury Bond Account 24 87 310 729 1196 2043 3084 a. Circular 85/116 ORTN's (4) (81) (77) b. Treasury Bills (-) (-) (-) c. Compulsory Reserve ORTN's (958) (1587) (2653) d. Other Federal Paper (234) (375) (354) 3. Extrabudgetary Accounts -264 -311 -302 -705 -1995 -2596 -3649 a. Autarkies (21) (75) (140) (178) (393) (697) (922) b. Local Governments (36) (60) (164) (447) (426) (634) (944) c. Public Sector Deposits (-321) (-446) (-606) (-1327) (-2101) (-2694) (-3401) i) Sight and Time Deposits (-321) (-446) (-606) (-1163) (-1812) (-2220) (-2751) ii) Tenure Guarantee Fund Deposits (-) (-) (-) (-164) (-289) (-474) (-650) d. Obligations to Official Institutions 2/ (-) (-) (-) (-3) (-713) (-1233) (-2114) 4. Credit to Private Sector 3/ 2228 3939 4895 8052 12770 18114 24214 5. Capital and Unclassifed (net) 4/ -56 4 -546 -842 -526 -964 -781 III.Net Position with Central Bank 883 1813 1801 2271 2757 2548 2515 1. Currency 233 344 398 514 890 824 912 2. Deposits with Central Bank 840 1700 1813 2369 2999 3286 3274 a. Compulsory (454) (985) (989) (1504) (1965) (1981) (1845) b. Voluntary (386) (715) (824) (865) (1034) (1305) (1429) 3. Central Bank Credit -190 -231 -410 -612 -1132 -1562 -1671 a. Coffee Rediscounts (-70) (-133) (-88) (-157) (-263) (-630) (-640) b. Other Loans 5/ (-120) (-98) (-322) (-455) (-869) (-932) (-1031) IV. Monetary Liabilities to Private Sector 2896 5596 6299 9653 13821 17910 23056 1. Demand Deposits 2772 5388 5627 8519 11728 15398 19565 2. Time and Savings Deposits 124 208 672 1134 2093 2512 3491 1/ Includes net spot position plus Resolution 63 liabilities. 2/ Includes obligations to both financial and other official institutions. 3/ Includes Cruzeiro outlays related to foreign exchange purchases. 4/ Includes all exchange transactions not included in NFS position, loans to financial institutions, investments in financial instruments, patrimonial accounts, "other"liabilities, capital and other long-term liabilities. 5/ Includes loans from Central Bank. 6/ Amounts not specifically projected for 1971 by the Central Bank were projected by the IBRD staff. The principal implication is that if the commercial banks buy all of the Treasury instruments which are expected to be sold they will have to increase substantially their Res. 63 indebtedness in order to meet the private sector credit target. Sources: Central Bank and IBRD staff estimates. Table 6.3: SUMMARY ACCOUNTS - BANKING SYSTEM 1/ (Cr$ millions, end of period balances) 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 Cr$1.85= Cr$2.20= Cr$2.70= Cr$3.20= Cr$3.83= Cr$4.35= Cr$4.95= US$1.00 US$1.00 US$1.00 US$1.00 US$1.00 US$1.00 US$1.00 I. Net Foreign Assets -1146 -760 -495 -1077 -1493 686 2880 II. Net Domestic Credit 5607 8818 10047 15126 21723 26005 31438 1. Treasury Cash Deficit 1759 2029 1838 2537 3617 2591 1758 2. Treasury Bond and Bill Account 24 87 589 1025 1313 2460 3706 3. Extrabudgetary Accounts -422 -476 -711 -872 -1649 -2098 -1911 a. Autarkies (115) (168) (302) (425) (687) (1054) (1549) b. Local Governments (51) (76) (179) (462) (448) (654) (965) c. Minimum Price Agencies (22) (274) (272) (316) (432) (417) (755) d. Purchase and Sale of Goods (149) (255) (260) (361) (633) (912) (1255) e. Public Sector Devosits (-) (-759) (-1249) (-1724) (-2436) (-3849) (-5135) (-6435) 4. Coffee Account -149 35 -270 -205 -832 -1537 -2729 a. Coffee Production Credits (260) (269) (220) (419) (723) (1480) (1741) b. Coffee Defense Fund (net) (-409) (-234) (-490) (-624) (-1555) (-3017) (-4470) 5. Credit to the Private Sector 3230 5187 6964 10937 17410 25012 33999 a. Of which: FUNDAG () () () () () () (104) 6. PL480 and USAID Counterpart -208 -221 -195 -223 -333 -505 -190 7. Allocation of SDR's - - - - - - -308 8. Capital and Unclassified (net) 1373 2187 1832 1927 2197 82 -2887 III. Monetary Liabilities to Private Sector 4461 8058 9552 14049 20230 26691 34318 1. Currency 1155 1729 2343 2944 4080 5390 6750 2. Demand Deposits 3160 6035 6443 9792 13769 18305 23302 3. Time and Savings Deposits 146 294 766 1313 2381 2996 4266 1/ Excludes the Federal Savings Banks. Sources: Central Bank of Brazil and staff estimates. Table 6.4: THE COFFEE ACCOUNT, 1964-70 j (In millions of current Cr$) 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1. Coffee Defense Fund Receipts 382 703 1,051 1,100 1,411 2,235 2,447 Contribution Quota 1,064 1,651 1,502 Sales for Domestic Consumption 82 240 592 Sales to Export Trade 165 125 45 Sales from "Entrepostos" 100 184 290 Other FRDC Receipts - 35 17 2. Coffee Defense Fund Expenditures -153 -805 -769 -952 -510 -815 -994 Purchase of Surplus Coffee -80 -735 -585 -483 -167 -119 - All Other FDC expenditures -73 -70 -184 -476 -343 -696 -994 3. Change in Coffee Defense Fund Balance 229 -102 282 141 901 1,420 1,453 4. Financing -100 -29 - -9:-76 -3 65 Net Change in Bank of Brazil Coffee Production Financing -63 34 24 -130 -199 -389 -251 Net Change in Central Bank Coffee Production Rediscounts -37 -63 45 -69 -105 -367 -10 Net Change in FUNDAG Financing - - - - - - -104 5. Net Change in Coffee Account 129 -131 351 -58 N21 664 1,088 (i.e. net coffee sector financing) 1 Coffee account data presented here are organized in a manner compatible with the monetary accounts; a negative result (see line 5) indicates a net transfer from the coffee sector to other economic sectors. Note that results differ in some degree from those shown in the Monetary Authorities accounts since data in this table include certain coffee transactions in transit through the commercial banks. Source: Central Bank of Brazil. Table 6.5: THE COFFEE ACCOUNT,1971-74 (In millions current Cr$) 1971 I II III IV Year 1972 1973 1974 Exchange Rate 5.04 5.13 5.32 5.53 5.25 6.04 6.94 7.98 A. Contribution Quota 1536.9 2227.7 2834.0 3548.5 1. Ordinary Exports Quantity (thousand sacks) 1118 3082 2800 2700 9700 10000 10400 10700 Min. Reg. Price (US$/bag) 1/ 51.48 51.48 51.48 57.04 59.89 62.88 Contribution Quota (US$/bag) 2/ 32.65 18.08 19.27 20.49 25.75 27.33 28.79 Contribution Quota (Cr$ millions) 184.0 285.9 287.1 305.9 1062.9 1553.5 1972.6 2458.2 Exporters Return (Cr$/bag) 2/ 171.35 171.35 171.35 189 226 272 2. Special Exports Quantity (thousand sacks) 559 1541 1400 1100 4600 4700 4900 5100 Price (US$/bag) 3/ 49.48 49.48 49.48 55.04 57.89 60.88 Contribution Quota (US$/bag) 3/ 30.65 16.08 17.27 18.49 23.75 25.33 26.79 Contribution Quota (Cr$ millions) 103.5 127.1 128.6 112.5 471.7 674.2 861.4 1090.3 3. Soluble Coffee Quantity (thousand sacks bean equiv.) 80 373 373 374 1200 1200 1300 1300 Price (US$/sack) Tax (US$/sack) 4/ 5.72 - - - - - - _ Tax Yield (Cr$ millions) 2.3 - - - 2.3 - - - B. Sales from Stock 1119.1 1663.5 2343.5 3207.8 1. For Internal Consumption Quantity (thousand bags) 2250 2250 2250 2250 9000 9000 9200 9500 Price (Cr$/sack) 5/ 80 s0 100 100 130 190 262 Yield (Cr$ millions) 180.0 180.0 225.0 225.0 810.0 1170.0 1748.0 2489.0 2. Entrepostos Quantity (thousand sacks) 668 432 400 500 2000 2500 2500 2500 Price (US$/bag) 29.50 29.50 29.50 29.50 32.68 34.32 36.03 Yield (Cr$ millions) 99.3 65.4 62.8 81.6 309.1 493.5 595.5 718.8 3. To Exporters Quantity (thousand sacks) - - - - - - Price/bag (Cr$) Yield (Cr$ millions) - - - - - - C. Defense Fund Expenditures -2233.7 3493.8 4219.4 4927.2 1. Purchases Quantity (thousand bags) 0.3 - 5000 2500 7500 12300 12100 11200 Guarantee Price/Bag (Cr$) 6/ 155 165 165 165 182 218 262 Cost (Cr$ millions) 2 - 825.0 412.5 1237.5 2238.6 2637.8 2934.4 2. Other Defense Fund Expenditures 996.2 1255.2 1581.6 1992.8 3. Coffee Culture Rationalization Fund _ _ _ _ D. Coffee Fund Balance 422.3 397.4 958.1 1829.1 E. Financing -1744.3 -1067.0 -1717.3 3276.0 1. Production Financing 7/ -934.3 103.0 30.7 -787.0 2. FUNDAG 8/ -810.0 -1170.0 -1748.0 -2489.0 F. Net Balance from Cofee Operations -1322.0 669.6 -759.2 -1446.9 G. Net Balance Excluding FINDAG Applications 8/ -512.0 500.4 988.8 1042.1 See Footnotes on page 2. Page 2 Footnotes to Table 6.5 1/ Assumes 5 percent annual inflation in the United States. 2/ Assumes that the contribution quota is adjusted to keep the exporters' return at Cr$171.35/bag throughout 1971. For 1971 and subsequent years the exporters' return is assumed to be held at 1.038 times the guarantee price. 3/ The IBC is assumed to continue to promote sales at special prices in order to increase exports. The difference between "ordinary"' and "special" exports is assumed to be financed by reduction of the contribution quota. 4/ The tax on soluble coffee,exports was abolished early-in 1971. 5/ It is assumed that subsidization of internal coffee consumption will be eliminated by 1/1/74. 6/ It is assumed that both the guarantee price and the overall internal price level increase by 20 percent annually. 7/ As of the end of each calendar year production financing outstanding is assumed to equal stocks in the hands of producers valued at the guarantee price effective as of January 1 of the following year. Stocks in the hands of producers are defined as stocks carried over from previous calendar years plus the current harvest minus registrations effected during the respective calendar year. Registrations are assumed to equal the sum of coffee exported privately (e.g., excluding IBC exports) and sales to the IBC. In millions of bags, stocks in the hands of producers,including the unregistered portion of the current harvest - at the end of each calendar year are projected to be: 1970 - 11.2; 1971 - 14.7; 1972 - 11.8; 1973 - 9.7; 1974 - 10.6. 8/ Proceeds from the sale by the IBC of coffee for internal consumption are allocated to FUNDAG. Although FUNDAG is financing about 70 to 80 percent of the cost of new tree plantings most FUNDAG applications probably will be made outside the coffee sector. Sources: Table 3.11,Statistical Appendix (quantity assumptions) and mission estimates. Table C.C: THE COFFEE ACCOUTT,1J5-'(h (In milliuans 1y9' Cr4') Years 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 Deflators 2.655 1.926 1.500 1.208 1.000 0.835 0.696 0.580 0.483 0.403 A. Coffee Defense Fund Receipts 1866 2024 1651 1704 2235 2043 1849 2257 2501 2723 1. Contribution Quota 1285 1651 1254 1070 1292 T369 1430 2. IBC Sales for Domestic Consumption 99 240 494 564 679 844 1003 3. IBC Sales to Export Trade 199 125 38 - - - - 4. IBC Sales from "Entrepostos" 121 184 242 215 286 288 290 5. Other FRDC Receipts - 35 14 - - - - B. Coffee Defense Fund Expenditures -2137 -1481 -1439 -616 -815 -830 -1555 -2026 -2038 -1986 1. Purchase of Surplus Coffee -1951 -1127 -725 -202 -119 - -861 -1298 -1274 -1183 2. All Other FRDC Expenditures -186 -354 -714 -414 -696 -830 -694 -728 -764 -803 C. Change in Coffee Defense Fund Balance -271 543 212 1088 1420 1213 294 230 463 737 D. Financing -77 133 -299 -367 -756 -305 -1214 -619 -829 -1320 1. Coffee Production Financing 77 133 -299 -367 -756 -218 -650 60 15 -317 2. FUNDAG - - - - -87 -564 -679 -844 -1003 E. Net Change in Coffee Account 1. Including FUNDAG -348 676 -87 721 664 908 -920 -389 -367 -583 2. Excluding FUNDAG -348 676 -87 721 664 995 -356 290 478 420 Sources: Tables 6.4 and 6.5, Statistical Appendix. I I I Table 6.7: TREASURY BOND AND BILL ACCOUNT (In millions current Cr$) 1968 1969 1970 1971 A. Sales 1461 4946 11525 13217 1. ORTN 2174 2714 2933 2. ORTN - 116 2772 6676 2004 3. LTN - - 2135 8320 B. Amortization Expense -1169 -3791 a ; 11936 1. ORTN -1552 15 -2143 2. ORTN - 116 -2239 -6392 -3267 3. LTN - - -1477 -6447 C. Interest Charged to Receipts -86 -4 -0- -0- 1. Total Interest Payments -199 -3 7-5 9-53 2. - Amount Charged to Budget 133 324 543 593 D. Extra-budgetary Uses 14 41 29 -0- 1. Net to Federal Entities 2 -4o 29 - 2. Net under Resolution 21 12 1 - - E. Available to Finance Budget Deficit 220 1162 2070 1321 1. Deficit 1227 7Ii 7I 2. Account with Monetary Authorities -1007 406 1332 888 F. Change in Treasury Account Shown by -1080 1026 833 888 Monetary Authorities 1. Bond and Bill Operations -1007 406 1332 888 2. Taxpayer Deposits 239 311 188 - 3. Statistical Discrepancy -312 309 -687 - a. Attributable to Accounting of Extrabudgetary Uses (175) (-48) (-40) b. Attributable to Accounting of Budgetary Uses (-487) (357) (-647) Source: Central Bank of Brazil. Table 6.8 CREDIT PROGRAM - NATIONAL HOUSING BANK (In millions 1969 Cr$) 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 Current Account Savings 1457 1570 1700 1545 1423 1482 1300 1316 1442 1. Operating Profits 1/ 70 141 179 199 282 341 419 537 704 2. Tenure Guarantee Fund 2/ 1387 1429 1521 1346 1141 952 881 779 738 Capital Receipts 393 845 1258 1274 1668 1747 1843 2112 2418 1. Transfers from Treasury - - - - - - - - 2. Transfers from Private Sector (net) 3/ 207 698 1005 917 1135 1317 1556 1846 2172 3. Redemption of ORTN's 4/ 143 107 225 275 451 225 205 205 205 4. Foreign Loans 43 40 28 82 82 205 82 61 41 a. Housing Program (43) (40) (28) (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) () b. Water Supply (-) (-) (-) (82) (82) (205) (82) (61) (41) Capital Expenditures 1850 2415 2958 2819 3091 3229 3144 3427 3860 1. Financial Investment 1825 2133 2560 2508 2677 2889 2977 3259 3693 a. Housing (1796) (2029) (2300) (2126) (2215) (2293) (2435) (2651) (3061) b. SFS Loans to Local Govt's. 5/ (24) (70) (153) (226) (319) (453) (378) (428) (427) c. Other (5) (34) (107) (156) (143) (143) (164) (180) (205) 2. Amortization of Foreign Loans - - 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3. Purchase of ORTN's 6/ 25 282 397 307 410 337 164 164 164 1/ Interest and commissions minus administrative costs and financial charges. 2/ Represents an estimate of the annual contributions to minus withdrawals from the Tenure Guarantee Fund. 3/ Essentially equals repayments of BNH loans to the private sector minus redemption of BNH savings instruments sold to private sector. 4/ Redemption of government bonds purchased by the BNH. 5/ Loans to finance the installation of potable water and sewage facilities. 6/ A residual: resources accruing to the BNH and not otherwise invested have been placed in Adjustable Treasury Bonds (ORTN). With the need of the Government for financing of this type declining, it may be that BNH liquidity will be delivered to other types of capital market instruments. Source: National Housing Bank. Table 6.9 CREDIT PROGRAM - NATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT BANK (In millions 1969 Cr$) 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 Current Account Savings 494 481 556 563 615 672 735 803 877 1. Operating Profits 47 121 156 143 160 176 194 213 234 2. Financial Operations Tax 1/ 447 360 400 418 455 496 541 590 643 Capital Receipts 214 411 601 716 821 854 931 997 1099 1. Foreign Loans 47 114 95 75 84 100 100 100 100 2. Treasury Transfer 2/ 91 216 304 362 350 250 210 246 307 3. Loan Repayments 76 81 202 279 300 330 360 390 430 4. Social Integration Program 3/ - - - - 87 174 261 261 261 Capital Expenditures 708 892 1157 1279 1436 1526 1666 1800 1975 1. Financial Investment 499 846 1025 8/ 1199 9/ 1320 10/ 1450 1590 1750 1925 a. Economic Infrastructure 4/ (103) (306) (300) (293) (300) (250) (250) (250) (250) b, Industrial Development (206) (277) (275) (351) (400) (450) (500) (550) (600) c. FIPEME 5/ (77) (103) (200) (254) (250) (275) (300) (350) (400) d. FINAME 6/ (73) (71) (60) (84) (120) (175) (240) (300) (350) e. Other 7/ (40) (89) (190) (217) (250) (300) (300) (300) (325) 2. Amortization of Foreign Loans 6 12 18 24 25 25 25 25 25 3. Increase in Cash Balances 203 34 114 56 91 51 51 25 25 1/ Collected by the Central Bank and repassed to the BNDE. 2/ Transferred as per specific budgetary appropriation. 3/ It is assumed that BNDE will utilize approximately 25 percent of liquid Social Integration Fund Resources to finance long-term FINANE loans and FUMCAP operations. 4/ Power, transport and telecommunications. 5/ Fund for small and medium industry. 6/ Fund for financing the sale of locally produced capital goods, note thbt the amounts shown here include only those resources repassed to FINANE by the BNDE. Total FINAME operations are about three times as large. 7/ Primarily operations by various special funds such as FUNTEC (post graduate studies), FUNDEPRO (industrial reequipment, replaced by FMRI in 1970), FUNCIRO (working capital), FUMCAP (share and debenture underwriting). 8/ Estimated. 9/ Based on 1971 BNDE operating budget. 10/ Applications projected to increase at 10 percent annually in real terms after 1971. Sources: National Economic Development Bank and staff estimates. Table 6.10: SUMMARY ACCOUNTS - FEDERAL SAVINGS BANKS 1/ (Cr$ millions, end of period balances) 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 I. Net Credit 328 414 725 808 1123 1976 1. Loans 211 394 615 1129 1548 2439 a. Mortgage (88) (195) (209) (492) (743) (1738) b. Other (123) (199) (406) (637) (805) (701) 2. Securities 67 87 125 199 242 270 a. Shares, Debentures, etc. (50) (59) (97) (21) (31) (41) b. Treasury Bonds (17) (28) (28) (178) (211) (229) 3. Cash 67 48 190 76 140 215 a. In Vault (9) (11) (20) (28) (32) (28) b. Deposited in Banks (58) (37) (170) (53) (108) (187) 4. Miscellaneous Assets 82 99 170 266 359 1002 5. Nondeposit Liabilities -99 -214 -375 -862 -1166 -1950 a. Capital and Reserves (-14) (-55) (-124) (-321) (-515) (-774) b. To Third Parties (-85) (-159) (-251) (-541) (-651) (-1176) II. Deposit Liabilities 328 414 725 808 1123 1976 1. Sight Deposits 286 339 577 598 703 966 2. Time and Savings Deposits 42 75 148 210 420 1010 1/ Includes the Federal Savings Banks of Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Rio Grande do Sul, Minas Gerais and Brasilia which represent the bulk of the activities of the entire Federal Savings Bank system. Source: Central Bank of Brazil. Table 7.1: BRAZIL - ESTIMATED PRODUCTION, COFFEE TREE POPULATION AND PLANTED AREA,1961-70 Total Parana Sao Paulo Mlinas Gerais Esp. Santo Others A. Estimated Production (million bags) 1961-b2 39.6 21.4 11.3 4.0 1.9 1.0 1962-63 28.9 18.0 5.2 2.5 2.4 o.8 1963-64 23.2 9e5 10.1 1.6 1.3 0.7 1964-65 8.3 3.6 1.8- 1.2 1.1 o.6 1965-66 37.0 20.4 11.2 2.9 1.9 o.6 1966-67 18.8 7.7 6.2 2.8 1.6 0.5 1967-68 24.7 12.9 8.5 2.0 0.7 0.4 1968-69 170 8.3 1.6 1.9 1.6 o.6 1969-70 20.6 12.3 6.1 1.3 0.5 0.4 1970-71 11.0 1.6 4.4 3.0 1.6 o.4 Forecast 1971-72 26.5 13.9 10.0 1.8 0.5 0.4 B. Coffe Tree Population (mllo~n "es")- I-O ls6 -3,743 1,281 1,150 757 563 555 1962 4,026 1,295 973 697 540 520 1963 3,676 1,316 800 582 498 480 1964 3,491 1,167 770 592 517 445 1965 3,199 995 750 566 473 415 1966 2,686 933 714 315 391 272 1967 2,320 846 690 349 305 130 1968 2,311 849 690 331 312 128 1969 2,305 838 690 332 316 128 1970 2,281 790 690 355 317 128 C. Area Planted with Coffee (thousand hectares) lyl 1 4,886 1,787 1,385 737 462 555 1962 4,583 1,807 1,172 679 404 520 1963 4;220 1,836 964 567 373 48o 1964 3,964 1,628 928 577 387 445 1965 3,612 1,387 904 552 354 415 1966 3,033 1,301 860 307 293 272 1967 2,709 1,180 831 340 229 130 1968 2,765 1,249 831 322 234 128 1969 2,730 1,212 831 323 237 128 1970 2,634 1,092 831 345 238 128 Source: IEC Anuario Edtatistico 1968-70. Table 7.2: BRAZIL - REGISTEREDlI COFFEE PRODUCTTON,1938-39 TO 1970-71 (In million bags (60 kg)) Sao Minas Espirito Total Paulo Gerais Parana S&nto Others 1938-39 23.2 15.6 3.9 0.6 1.8 1.3 1939-40 19.1 12.4 3.2 1.1 1.5 0.9 1940-41 16.5 10.2 3.2 0.9 1.2 1.0 1941-42 15.8 9.3 2.6 0.8 2.0 1.1 1942-43 13.6 8.5 2.2 0.6 1.4 0.9 1943-44 12.2 5.9 3.1 0.2 1.9 1.1 1944-45 9.1 4.7 1.9 0.6 1.3 0.6 1945-46 12.7 6.1 2.9 0.7 2.0 1.0 1946-47 14.0 8.9 2.2 1.1 1.2 o06 1947-48 13.6 6.5 2.8 1.6 2.0 0.7 1948-49 17.0 11.2 2.4 1.9 1.0 0.5 1949-50 16.3 7.4 3.2 2.3 2.5 0.9 1950-51 16.8 8.1 2.8 4.0 1.4 0.5 1951-52 15.0 6.3 3.4 2.8 2.0 0.5 1952-53 16.1 7.2 1.8 5.0 1.5 G.6 1953-54 15.1 6.2 3.4 3.2 1.8 0.5 1954-55 14.5 7.3 3.2 1.3 1.8 0.9 1955-56 22.1 9.3 3.7 6.3 2.0 o.8 1956-57 12.5 6.o 1.9 2.2 1.6 1.2 1957-58 21.6 9.5 3.7 4.7 2.5 1.2 1958-59 26.8 10.7 4.2 8.6 2.6 0.7 1959-60 44.1 15.6 4.5 20.7 1.9 1.4 1960-61 29.8 8.2 3.5 14.3 3.1 0.7 1961-62 35.9 11.6 3.6 17.9 1.8 1.0 1962-63 28.7 5.0 2.5 18.0 2.4 0.8 1963-64 23.2 9.6 2.2 9.2 1.6 0.6 1964-65 18.1 6.8 1.8 7.1 1.7 0.7 1965-66 37.8 11.8 2.9 21.1 1.4 o.6 1966-67 17.5 5.1 2.7 7.7 1.5 0.5 1967-68 23.4 9.0 2.1 10.9 0.9 0.5 1968-69 16.8 5.0 1.9 7.7 1.9 0.3 1969-70 15.2 4.6 1.3 8.5 0.5 0.3 1970-711/ 7.8 2.7 1.3 2.8 0.9 0.1 / July 1970 to March 1971 only. Source: IBC Ainuaxio Estatistico do Cafe, 1968-70. Table 7.3: BRAZIL - VALUE OF REGISTERED PRODUCTION AND VALUE OF CROP, 1948-49 TO 1969-70 (In nominal Cr$ and in Cr$ of 1965-67) a 2 3 4 6 Avg. IBC Registered Value of Value of Value in Support Price Production Production Coffee Crop Cr$ mill. 1965-67 Year (Cr/bag) (thou.baRs) (Cr mill.) (Cr mill.) Production Crop 1948/49 0.45 16952 7.63 6.45 813 688 1949/50 0.65 16303 10.60 8.49 1092 874 1950/51 1.05 16754 17.59 n.a. 1620 1951/52 1.05 15021 15.77 n.a. 1247 1952/53 1.08 16100 17,39 n.a. 1203 1953/54 1.52 15148 23.03 21.45 1324 1233 1954/55 2.19 14512 31.78 29.80 1499 1406 1955/56 1.90 22064 41.92 41.56 1638 1623 1956/57 1.90 12535 23.82 30,52 688 1011 1957/58 1.98 21628 42.82 47.01 956 1359 1958/59 1.98 26807 53.08 48.57 1185 1084 1959/60 2.72 43816 119.2 64.72 1956 1062 1960/61 2.72 29848 81,19 77.46 976 931 1961/62 4.86 35860 174,3 103.4 1433 850 1962/63 5.76 28666, 185.1 158,2 919 785 1963/64 14.62 23153 338.5 181.8 936 502 1964/65 37.44 18065 676.4 294.4 1144 498 1965/66 31.61 37672 1190.8 1041.7 1380 1207 1966/67 36.55 17595 643.1 644.9 562 563 1967/68 48.49 23375 1133.5 1088.8 795 764 1968/69 68.29 16842 1130.1 1167.4 657 678 1969/70 92.31]j 15209 1403.9 2039.3 685 995 1970/71 (Est.) 141.79/ 10000 1417.905 n.a. 1971/72 (Est.) 165.10% 25000 4127.4 n.a. 1404 n.a X/ Data on the average support price are not available for these years. The figures presented assume that the average support price increased at the same rate as the support price for Group 1, type 6. Source: Columns (1), (2) and (3) = (2) x (1), are from the IBC. Data in Column (4) which reflect farmers incomes are from IBGE Anuario Estatistico. Columns (5) and (6) are derived from (3) and (4) using the Brazilian Wholesale Price Index (FGV #12); 1965-67 100. The crop year indices were obtained by averaging two calendar years. Table 7.4: BRAZIL - INTERNAL TERMS OF TRADE OF COFFEE 1 2 3 4 5 6 Average Wholesale Farmers' Farmers' IBC Support Price Prices Prices Year Price Index Index l.'2 Year Coffee All Prod. 4-5 '943/49 1.320 0.938 1.407 1966 100 100 1.000 1949/50 1.907 0.971 1.964 1967 110 119 0.924 31950/51 3.080 1.086 2.836 1968 162 140 1.157 1951/52 3.080 1.265 2.435 1969 242 176 1.375 1952/53 3.169 1.445 2.193 1970 430 226 1.903 1953/54 4.46 1.74 2.563 3 Mth. Avges. 1954/55 6.43 2.12 3.033 1966 Jan/Mar 107 87 1.230 1955/56 5.58 2.56 2.180 1966 Apr/Jun 104 96 1.083 1956/57 5.58 3.02 1.848 1966 Jul/Sep 92 105 0.876 1957/58 5.81 3.46 1.679 1966 Oct/Dec 97 113 0.858 1967 Jan/Mar 87 114 0.763 1958/59 5.81 4.48 1.297 1967 Apr/Jun 97 115 0.843 1959/60 7.98 6.10 1.308 1967 Jul/Sep 123 121 1.017 1960/61 7.98 8.32 0.959 1967 Oct/Dec 135 126 1.071 1961/62 14.26 12.16 1.173 1968 Jan/Mar 144 130 1.108 1962/63 16,90 20.15 0.839 1968 Apr/Jun 154 136 1.132 1968 Jul/Sep 173 143 1.210 1963/64 42.90 36.15 1.187 1968 Oct/Dec 178 152 1.171 1964/65 109.86 59.10 1.859 1969 Jan/Mar 181 158 1.146 1965/66 92.75 86.30 1.075 1969 Apr/Jun 201 165 1.218 1966/67 107.25 114.5 0.937 1969 Jul/Sep 241 179 1.346 1967/68 142.28 142.5 0.998 1969 Oct/Dec 345 200 1.725 1970 Jan/Mar 425 210 2.024 196869/ 200.4 172.0 1.165 1970 Apr/Jun 416 215 1.935 1969/70-1' 270.9 205.0 1.321 1970 Jul/Sep 430 232 1.853 1970/71-4 416.1 245.0 1.698 1970 Oct/Dec 450 247 1.822 i971/72i/ (Est.) 484.5 294.0 1.648 1971 Jan/Mar 449 262 1.714 1/ Data on the average support price is not available for these years. The figures presented assume that the average support price increased at the same rate as the support price for Group 1 type 6. Source: Column 1 - the index is derived from Table 7.3, Column 1. 1965-67 100. Column 2 - this is index No. 12 of the Fundacao Getulio Vargas. Column 4 - this is index No. 259 of the Fundacao Getulio Vargas. Column 5 - this is index No. 276 of the Fundacao Getulio Vargas. Table 7.5: BRAZIL - IBC COI'FEE SUPPORT PRICES,1966-72 (In Cr$ per bag) IBC Washed Group I Group II Effective Date Resolution Coffee Type 6 1/_ Type 7/8-~/ July 1, 1966 366 4O.00 36.50 24.00 January 1, 1967 366 43.00 39.50 26.00 June 12, 1967 409 53.50 50.60 33.30 July h, 1967 4gJ14 53.50 50.60 33.30 January 1, 1968 414 61.50 56.40 37.10 July 1, 1968 435 69.00 65.oo 43.00 November 1, 1968 448 79.00 73.00 48.00 April 1, 1969 448 86.70 78.70 51.80 July 1, 1969 467 94.00 84.00 61.50 October 1, 1969 475 105.20 94-00 67.70 January 1, 1970 477 116.20 105.00 78.70 July 1, 1970 499 155.00 140.00 105.00 December 23, 1970 512 172.00 155.00 116.00 May 1, 1971 512 183.00 165.00 124.00 January 1, 1972 2 515 202.00 182.00 141.00 Resolution 414 altered the classification of Group I, types to Group I, Type 6 and of Group II, Type 7 to Group II, Type 7/8. 2/ These prices have been announced to come into effect January 1, 1972. Source: IBC Anuario Estatistico 1968-70 and IBC Resolutions. Table (.6: BRAZIL - MINIMUM COFFEE EXPORT PRICE8, CONTRIBUTION QUOTA AND EXPORTER'S RETURN,1965-71 (For coffee of Type 6 or better, free of Rio zone taste) 1 2 3 4 5 6 Contribution Exchange IBC Minimum Export Price Quota Exporters Return Rate Effective Date Resolutioo USC lb US$ bag us$ bAg _S .bC r bab__ Cr$ January 1, 1965 321 43.00 56.76 32.44 24.32 45.00 1.850 April 22, 1965 329 42.00 55,44 31.12 24.32 45.00 1.850 July 1, 1965 334 42.00 55.44 30.03 25.41 47.00 1.850 November 13, 1965 345 41,00 54,12 32,30 2?182 48000 2)''.00 June 29, 1966 36f 38.50 50.82 29.00 2 182 48,00 2 200 December 12, 1966 382 38.50 50.82 29.Cto0 27.,82 48u00 2,200 January 11, 1967 387 37.50 49.50 27J68 21,82 0800 Q 200 February 13, 1967 387 37.50 49Y50 31.24 1]8ui 49,30 2M200 June 12, 1967 394i 37,50 49r50 26.65 22.85 01i1( 2/700 June 30, 1967 410 37.50 49.50 25-,4 23.96 64,70 2,/00 January JO, 1968 427 36.50 48.18 26.21 21.97 '0o30 3,200 April 30, 1968 436 36.50 48.18 23.02 25.16 80,50 3X200 August 23, 1968 446 36.50 48.18 25.62 22.56 81-90 3.630 October 10, 1968 449 36.50 48.18 23.55 24c63 90,J50 3.675 March 21, 1969 455 36.50 48.18 23.88 24.30 96.60 3.975 May 9, 1969 462 36.50 48.18 23.26 24.92 100.30 4.025 June 20, 1969 466 36,50 48.18 23.01 25.1.7 10130 4,025 September 10, 1969 474 37,50 49,50 24.22 25'i78 :104,0 4, IA0 October 1, 1969 476 38.50 50.,82 23 05 20). 7 I V1K30 /l,}i October 17, 1969 478 41 00 54.12 25 .7 28-5 i 119 5l 6. 1 85 November 13, 1969 483 44.00 58,00 t60't 31 /1 35 0 0.2f5 December 1, 1969 4831 44 00 58./4 269t 316 9 f o January 1, 19170 483 45< 00 $9c40 28.07 31,33 .11, 0 0 1125 Febynory I , 19 /0 483 40 ti0 60,06 28.73 31.33 135 510 March 'I 1910 484 46( 00 60, 72 29,40 31.32 13/ 20 4.380 April I 1.9)0 49'1 46 ,50 61.38 29.97 31.41 140.10 4,-4 60 May 1, 1970 495 /,I 00 62c()4 30.63 31.41 140 10 4.460 June 1, 1.970 500 47,0i0 62,'t0 31.77 30.93 140,10 4,530 July 1, 1970 500 48,00 63,36 32.43 30.93 140,1.0 4,530 August 1., 1970 500 48,/50 64.02 33.68 30.34 140,10 4.620 September 1, 1970 500 49,00 64,68 34.34 30.34 140.10 4,620 October 1, 1970 500 50.50 66.66 36.79 29.87 140.10 4.690 Novemnber 25, 1970 507 51,00 67.32 34.87 32.45 155,10 4.780 February 25, 19/l 5:16 39.00 51,48 19,20 32.28 1.61.40 5,000 March 22, 19'2J 518 39.00 51,4.8 19.65 31,83 161.70 5,080 April 77, i9Y/1 )21 39.00 51-48 17.75 33./3 171,35 5,080 May 3, 1971 525 39,00 51.48 18.22 33.26 17i.62 5.160 June 12, 1971 531 39,00 51-48 18.73 32.75 171.,94 5.250 Source: The data in Column (1), Colwai (2) ic; November 1970 and Column (3) froym FebIrua,ry 1971 aYe from. the IBC Aaiuari.o Estatistico 1968/70, and IBC Resolutioo,s. Column (6) shovs the htyiqg teSs in evietence a teX. t:in the. iO Resoluitions became effective. Column (2) is derived from Golumn (.) essriuynTg that 1 bapf; 1.32 Lb. (:olu0f (3) Column (2) Column (4). Table 7.7: BRAZIL - COSTS OF COFFEE PRODUCTION CROP YEAR,7 1969-70 (In cruzeiros) COFFEE CULTIVATED WITH MANUAL LABOR COFFEE CULT1VATED WI SEMI-MECHANIZED HOES Levels of Productivity per 1,000 covas Beneficiated coffee (60 kg bags) 25.0 18.7 12.5 6.3 25.0 18,7 12.5 6.2 Dried coffee beans (40 kg bags) 75.0 56.o 38.0 19.0 75o0 56.o 38.0 19,0 Coffee beans on the farm (110 litre bags) 83.0 6200 41.0 21.0 83.0 62.0 41.0 21.0 Farming Costs (per 1,000 covas) 1. Current Costs a. Labor 621 545 493 379 540 478 427 315 b. Materials 409 275 209 22 409 275 209 22 c. Administration and other 157 136 124 94 149 129 117 88 2. Financial Costs a. Depreciation 151 151 132 121 151 151 132 121 b. Interest on working capital 98 78 68 39 90 71 60 32 3. Overhead Costs a. Rent 133 133 133 133 133 133 133 133 b. Return to fixed capital 389 334 243 170 389 334 243 170 c. Management 144 108 90 72 144 108 90 72 TOTAL COSTS (per 1,000 covas) 2,0 1 1,492 1,030 2L5 1,679 1,411 953 Production Costs (per bag beneficiated) 1. Farming Costs (per 3 bags of dried beans)2/ 84.o8 94.13 118.28 162.75 80.01 89.70 111.71 150o60 2. Beneficiating Costs a. Transport 1.88 1.88 1.88 1.88 1.88 1,88 1.88 1.88 b. Preparation 3.36 3,36 3.36 3.36 3.36 3,36 3.36 3,36 co New bagging 2,00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 TOTAL COSTS (per bag beneficiated) 91.32 101.47 12552 170.17 87.43 97.12 119,13 158,02 A cova is four trees planted together in a single hole. j On average, 3 bags of dried beans are necessary to make 1 bag of beneficiated coffee. Source: Custo de Producao de Cafe, SAFRA 1969-70 by O.J.T. Ettori, C.T. Yamaguishi and C. Okamoto; published in Agricultura em Sac Paulo, January-February 1970. Table 7.8: BRAZIL - DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION AMD DOMESTIC PRICES OF COFFEE,196o-71 Quantity Per Average Deflated Average Sales Price Sold for Capita IBC Sales Average IBC as % of Domestic Estimated Consump- Price IBC 11Support2 Support Year Use Population tion Sales Pric -/Price2- Price (thou bags) (mil.) (in kilos) (Cr$ per bag)(l965-7 pr.) (Cr$ per bag) 1960 5118 70967 4.36 0.81 12.20 2.72 29.8 1961 5787 72855 4.81 0.93 10.22 3.79 24.5 1962 6224 74793 5.03 0.69 5.00 5.31 13.0 1963 6745 76782 5.31 1.08 4.46 10.19 10.6 1964 7524 78824 5.57 2.00 4.34 26.03 7.7 1965 8132 80921 6.o8 2.00 2.77 34-52 5.8 1966 8097 83074 5.90 5.00 5.02 34.08 14.7 1967 8624 85283 6.12 1.0C 0.78 42.52 2.4 1968 8752 87552 6.05 14.66 9.22 58.39 25.1 1969 8745 89881 5.89 27.37 14.26 80.30 34.1 1970 8888 92238 5.83 Note: IBC selling price of coffee to roasters has had the following increases since 1968: January 1968, from Cr$1.00 to Cr$10.00-11.00 per bag. August 1968, from Cr$10.00-11.00 to Cr$21.00-23.00 per bag. May 1969, from Cr$21.00-23.00 to Cr$32.00-35.00 per bag. July 1970, from Cr$32.00-35.00 to Cr$50.00-61.00 per bag. February 1971, from Cr$50.00-61.00 to Cr$80.00-81.00 per bag. X/ The general price index (FGV No. 2) has been used as the deflator. _gj The calendar year values are simple averages of the crop year values in Table 7.4. Source: IBC Anuario Estatistico 1968-70 and IBC communications. Table 7.9: BRAZIL - COFFEE EXPORTS,1965-71 Export Value Export Volume Average FOB Price (US$ million) (thou, bags/bag equiv.) (US$ bag/bag equiv.) Year Total Beans Soluble Total Beans Soluble Total Beans Soluble 1965 707,4 706.7 0.7 13497 13482 15 52.41 52.41 49.86 1966 773D5 764.0 9.5 17031 16832 199 45.42 45.41 47.94 1967 733.0 704.7 28.3 17331 16738 592 42.29 42.10 47.77 1968 797.3 774.5 22.8 19034 18458 577 41.88 41.96 39.49 1969 845,7 813.0 32.7 19612 18723 923 43.12 43.42 35.46 1970 981,8 939.3 42.5 17084 16043 1041 57.46 58.53 40.86 Month 1969 January 56.8 54.1 2.7 1447 1376 71 39.25 39.32 38.53 1969 February 63.5 60.9 2.6 1530 1464 66 41.50 41.60 38.99 1969 March 67.2 63.3 3.9 1658 1559 99 40.53 40.60 40.03 1969 April 50.1 47.6 2.5 1264 1199 65 39.64 39.70 38.64 1969 May 65.1 61.4 3.7 1545 1435 110 42.13 42.79 33.48 1969 June 69.8 67.2 2.6 1675 1598 77 41.67 42.05 33.93 1969 July 56.5 53.7 2.8 1453 1367 86 38.89 39.28 32.71 1969 August 62.5 58.7 3.8 1561 1445 116 40.04 40.62 33.16 1969 September 103,9 102.7 1.2 2390 2353 37 43.47 43.65 33.41 1969 October 69.8 68.0 1.8 1548 1495 53 45.09 45.48 34.39 1969 November 101,8 99.7 2.1 2002 1939 63 50,85 51.42 33.90 1969 December 76.6 73.8 2.8 1539 1458 81 49.77 50.62 34.97 1970 January 73.7 70.4 3.3 1398 1302 96 52.72 54.07 34.37 1970 February 62.4 59.5 2.9 1182 1095 87 52.88 54.34 33.33 1970 March 68.7 66.9 1.8 1433 1383 50 47.94 48.37 36.00 1970 April 92.5 89.8 2.7 1505 1436 69 61.46 62.53 39.13 1970 May 92.0 88.5 3.5 1604 1513 91 57.36 58.49 38.46 1970 June - 85.7 82.6 3.1 1521 1444 77 56.34 57.20 40,26 1970 July 83.0 78.5 4.5 1501 1390 111 55.29 56.47 40.54 1970 August 64.7 60.6 4,1 1300 1202 98 49.77 50.42 41.84 1970 September 106.5 101.9 4.6 1616 1512 104 65.90 67.39 44.23 1970 October 54.2 48.1 6.1 1001 865 136 54,14 55.61 44.85 1970 November 60,9 57.0 3.9 1023 944 79 59.53 60.38 49.37 1970 December 137.5 135.5 2.0 2000 1957 43 68.75 69.24 46.51 1971 January 605 1971 February 662 1971 March 1306 1971 April 1321 May 1750 June 1921 Source: IBC Anuario Estatistico 1968-70 Banco do Brasil (CACEX), Table 7.10: 3RAZIL - PRICE RELATIOESHIPS 3OR SATTOS 4'' TYPE COFFEE,1965-71 (In US cents per lb) 2 3 4 5 New York Avge.FOB IBC min. Exporter's IBC Price Relationships Spot Price Exp. Price Exp. Price Return Support Price cents/lb. Santos 4 Coffee beans Type 6 Type 6 Grp.l,Type 6 1-2 1-3 4-5 1965 44.71 39.70 42.00 18.48 5.01 2.71 1966 40.83 34.39 39,75 16.38 12.45 6.44 1.08 3.93 19967 37.82 31.89 37.50 16.52 13.12 5.93 .32 3.40 1968 37.43 31.79 36.50 18.57 14.44 5.64 .93 4.13 1969 40.76 32.95 38.02 19.44 15.29 7.81 2.74 4.15 1970 54.57 44.34 47.96 23.15 20.14 10.23 6.61 3.01 Monthlv 19,69 January 38.50 29M79 36.50 17.90 14.44 8.71 2.00 3.46 1969 February 38.68 31.52 36.50 17.47 14.09 7.16 2.18 3.38 1969 March 38.70 30.76 36.50 18.45 13.95 7.94 2e20 4.50 1969 April 37.30 30,08 36.50 18.30 14.96 7.22 .80 3.34 1969 May 37.20 32.42 36.50 18.87 14.81 4.78 .70 4.06 1969 June 37.35 31.86 36.50 18.95 14.72 5.49 .85 4.23 1969 July 37.53 29.76 36.50 18.76 15.55 7.77 1.03 3.21 1969 August 38.30 30.77 36.50 18.68 15.49 7.53 1.80 3.19 1969 September 42.38 33.07 37.50 19.04 15.33 9.31 4.88 3.71 1969 October 46.90 34.45 39.75 20.34 16.93 12.45 7.15 3.41 1969 November 48.40 38.95 42.50 22.70 16.74 9.45 5.90 5.96 1969 December 48.80 38.35 44.50 23.80 16.51 10.45 4.30 7.29 1970 January 52.30 40.96 45.00 23.60 18.29 11,34 7.30 5.31 1970 February 52.35 41.17 45.50 23.33 18.07 11.18 6.85 5.26 1970 March 53.00 36.64 46.00 23.52 17.99 16.36 7.00 5.53 1970 April 53.60 47.37 46.50 23.64 17.72 6.23 7.10 5.92 1970 May 53.95 44.31 47.00 23.48 17.60 9.64 6,95 5.88 1970 June 54.03 43.33 47.50 23.27 17,45 10.70 6.53 5.82 1970 July 54.73 42,78 48.00 23.03 23.01 11.95 6.73 0.02 1970 August 55.78 38,20 48.50 22.82 22,81 17.58 7,28 0.01 1970 September 56.98 51.05 49.00 22,67 22,66 5.93 7.98 0c0l 1970 October 57.75 42.13 50.50 22.49 22.47 15.62 7.25 0,02 1970 November 56.33 45.74 50.50 21,97 21.96 10.59 5.83 0.01 1970 December 54.03 52,45 51.00 24.03 21.69 1.58 3.03 2.34 1971 January 53,75 51.00 23,74 23.72 2.75 0.02 1971 February 50.94 51.00 23.47 23.45 -.06 0,02 1971 March 45.75 39.00 24.20 23.23 6.75 0,97 1971 April 44.03 39.00 25.40 22.98 5.03 2.42 1971 May 43.20 39.00 25.06 24,10 4,20 0,96 1971 June 42.60 39.00 24.91 23.97 3.60 0.94 1971 July 42.50 39.00 24.81 23.81 3.50 1.00 Sources: Tables 7.5, 7.6, 7.10 and 7.12. The selling rate Cr/$ has been used to derive columns 4 and 5. One bag of coffee is assumed to be 132 lbs. Table 7.11: BRAZIL - NEW YORK SPOT PRICES FOR SILTCTED mOFFEES,1960-70 (In US cents per lb) 1 2 3 4 Columbia El Salvador Brazil Angola Price Differentials Yearly MAMS Cent. Stand. Santos 4 Ambriz 2AA 1-2 2-3 3-4 1960 44.89 41.54 36.60 25.27 3.35 4.94 11=33 1961 43.62 37.93 36.01 19.93 5.69 1,92 16.08 1962 40.77 35.86 33.96 21.55 4.91 1.90 12,41 1963 39.55 35.44 34.11 28.73 4,11 1.33 5.38 1964 48.80 47.20 46.66 36.38 1.60 .54 10.28 1965 48.49 45,55 44.71 31.59 2.94 .84 13.12 1966 47,43 42.54 40.83 33,98 4.89 1.71 6,85 1967 41,94 39.42 37.82 35.83 2,52 1,60 3,99 1968 42.43 39.55 37.43 34.25 2.88 2,12 3,18 1969 44.99 40.22 40D76 33.56 4.77 -,54 7,20 1970 56.42 52.01 54,57 41.99 4,41 -2,56 12,58 Monthly 1969 January 43093 39.88 38,50 34.45 4.05 1.38 4,05 1969 February 43.23 39.65 38.68 33.85 3.56 ,97 4,83 1969 March 41.05 37.78 38.70 31,68 3.27 .92 7002 1969 April 40.05 36.78 37.30 29.73 3.27 -.52 7.57 1969 May 39,83 36.63 37.20 29,25 3,22 -.57 7.95 1969 June 40,58 36.48 37,35 30,55 4.10 -.87 6,80 1969 July 40,33 35,65 37,53 31,30 4,68 -1.88 6.23 1969 August 41.38 36.75 38,30 33,10 4,63 -1.55 5.20 1969 September 45,30 41.20 42.38 35.08 4,10 -1,18 7.30 1969 October 52.50 46.95 46.90 38,45 5,55 .05 8,45 1969 November 55.75 47.00 48.40 37.68 8,75 -1.40 10.72 1969 December 55.88 47,83 48.80 37.58 8.05 -.97 11.22 1970 January 59.43 51.38 52.30 39.13 8,05 -.92 13.17 1970 February 57.18 51,28 52.35 38.58 5,90 -1,07 13,77 1970 March 57.50 53,23 53,00 39.83 4,27 .23 13.17 1970 April 57.23 54,55 53.60 41,40 2,68 .95 12,20 1970 May 57.78 54.95 53.95 42.83 2.83 1,00 11.12 1970 June 56.80 54.50 54,03 42.18 2.30 .47 11.85 1970 July 56.25 54.90 54.73 42,98 1.35 .17 11.75 1970 August 55.95 54,05 55,78 42,98 1.90 1.73 12.80 1970 September 55.65 52.70 56.98 44,05 2.95 -4,28 12.93 1970 October 56.05 50,70 57,75 44,38 5.35 -7.05 13.37 1970 November 54,80 47.08 56.33 42L78 7.72 -9.25 15,55 1970 December 52,45 52,01 54.03 42,75 .44 -2.02 11,28 1971 January 52,10 45,40 53.75 43,20 6.70 -8.35 10,55 1971 February 50,35 44,69 50.94 42.7Q 5.66 -6.25 8,22 1971 March 50.00 46.22 45.75 43.28 3.78 ,47 2,47 1971 April 48.60 45.05 44.03 42.88 3.55 1.02 1.15 1971 May 48.60 46.30 43.20 42,60 2.30 3.10 .60 1971 June 47.90 46.10 42.60 42.70 1.80 3.50 -.10 1971 July 47.70 45.72 42.50 42.50 1.98 3.22 - Sources: IBC Anuario Estatistico 1968-70 and IBRD commodities division statistics. Table 7.12: BRAZIL - PROJECTED COFFEE PRODUCTIDN (In millions of bags) Previous Effect of Normal Net from Productivity Adjustment Existing New Plantings Calculated "Normal" Frost and Retirement "Existing" Percent Number of Trees Plus Million Number of Total Crop Year Outptut Rust of Trees Trees Increase Bags Productivity Trees Bags Output 1969-70 Actual 24.0 -3.2 20.8 - - 20.8 70 - 20.8 1970-71 Actual 24.0 -14.0 - 10.0 107, 1.0 11.0 130 _ 11.0 1971-72 24.0 -0.5 -0.5 23.0 15% 3.0 26.5 - 26.5 1972-73 24.0 -1.5 -0.5 22.0 15% 3.3 25.3 - - 25.3 1973-74 24.0 -1.5 -1.0 21.5 15% 3.2 24.7 - 1.75 26.5 1974_75 24.0 -1.5 -1.5 21.0 15% 3.2 24.2 - 5.0 29.2 Notes: Estimates of "normal" output before the 1969 frost ranged from as low as 22-24 million bags (based on output in the last few years) to as high as 28 million (the approximate consensus of private traders). The 24 million bag figure used is approximately equal to the average production in 1965/66-1968/69 (23.9 million bags). This period includes two bad years as well as one very good year; it would t1ims appear to be a conservative estimate of "normal" production. The 24 million bag figure assumes 2.2 billion trees with an average yleld of about 11 bags per thousand trees. The frost and drought in 1969 reduced the 1970-71 crop to below half the normal level. Forecasts of the 1971-72 crop indicate that trees have already fully recovered. Effects of leaf rust on output are an unknown factor. It is assumed that the loss in 1971-72 will be oi.ly 0.5 million bags and 1.5 million bags in later years. 3-,2 cvernment is encouraging greater use of fertilizer and other inputs which should result in productivity increases of at least P'X,lsent in 1970.71 and 15 percent thereafter, Higher productivity should be maintained as more producers adopt improved methods wl-|- ire more profitable. Over the longer run the 15 percent figure is conservative. itt officials estimate that about 20 ' .-i tr~ees were planted in 1969-70 and 1970-71. New trees are assumed to average 25 bags iper t-housseid trees beginning in the fou:jLh year. Source, Staff estimates. Table 7.13: BRAZIL - COFFEE SUPPLY AND UTILIZATION, 1970 (In thousands of bags) 1970 1971 1972 1AD73 1974 (Actual) A. BRAZIL Supply 57,800 52,800 52,000 529j0 50,800 1. Total Stocks at Start of Year 43,300 31,800 26,300 24,600 22,500 2. Estimated Production 14,500 21,000 25,700 26,100 28,300 Utilization 57,800 52,800 52,000 507O0 0O 3. Domestic Consumption 8,900 9,000 9,000 9,200 9,500 4. Exports (incl. soluble) 17,100 17,500 18,400 19O000 19,60-; 5. Total Stocks at End of Year 31,800 26,300 24,600 22,500 21,700 B. BRAZILIAN COFFEE INSTITUTE (IBC) Supply 36,300 32,300 33,600 34,200 312 1. Stocks at Start of Year 36,300 24,800 21,300 22,100 22.5C' 2. Purchases - 7,500 12,300 12,100 11,2ec. Utilization 36,300 32,300 33,600 34,200 33,:70 3. Sales for Domestic Consumption 8,900 9,000 9,000 9,200 9,500 4. a. Export Sales through Entrepostos2,350 2,000 2,500 2,500 2,500 b. Other Export Sales 250 - - - 5. Stocks at End of Year 24,800 21,300 22,100 22,500 21,700 C. PRIVATE COFFEE PRODUCERS Supply 21,500 28,000 30,700 28,600 28,3Y0 1. Excess Stocks at Start of Year 7,000 7,000 5,000 2,500 2. Estimated Production 14,500 21,000 25,700 26,100 2S ,-,, Utilization 21,500 28,000 30,700 286 2-' 3. Sales to IBC - 7,500 12,300 12,100 11,200 4. Export Sales 14,500 15,500 15,900 16,500 17,100 5. Excess Stocks at End of Year 7,000 5,000 2,500 - NOTES: 1. Data for 1970 were provided by the IBC. 2. Estimates of Production for 1971-74 are derived from Table 7.12. Crop year production is converted to a calendar year basis on the assumption that 65 percent of the crop becomes available in July-December and 35 percent. in the first half of the next calendar year. 3. Domestic consumption is expected to stay at the 1970 level during 1971-72 due to elimination of the subsidy at 25 percent per year after cons'M p-icor is assumed to grow. 4. Estimates of exports in 1971-74 are from Table 5.11. Table 7.14: AGRICULTURAL CROP PRODUCTION, 1963-70 2/ 9% Total Value 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 in 1968 Rice 15.1 5,740 6,345 7,580 5,802 6,792 6,652 6,394 7,482 Corn 12.2 10418 9,408 12,112 11,371 12,825 12,814 12,693 15,381. Coffee 10.6 3,301 2,084 4,588 2,405 3,015 2,115 2,567 1,726 Sugar 9.3 63,723 66,399 75,853 75,787 77,087 76,611 75,247 91,113 Manioe 8.5 22,249 24,356 24,993 24,710 27,268 29,203 30,074 31,181 Cotton 8.3 1,957 1,770 1,906 1,865 1,692 1,999 2,111 2,173 Beans 6.6 1,942 1,951 2,290 2,148 2,548 2,420 2,200 2,305 Bananas (stems) 3.9 313 338 349 356 403 422 463 494 Wheat 2.8 392 643 585 615 629 856 1,374 1,657 Oranges (fruits) 2.2 10,532 10,275 11,428 11,767 12,523 13,587 14,484 16,694 Potatoes 2.1 1,168 1,264 1,246 1,329 1,467 1,606 1,506 1,571 Cocoa 2.0 143 154 161 170 195 145 211 226 Peanuts 1.9 604 470 743 895 751 754 754 903 Soybeans 1.2 323 305 523 595 716 654 1,057 1,462 Coconuts (fruits) 1.0 494 503 529 691 824 691 656 667 Sisal 0.6 199 229 242 287 319 328 311 325 34 Other Products 11.7 - _ _ _ -_ lOQ.0% 1/ Output shown in thousands of metric tons except for bananas, oranges and *.conuts. Banaw-a production shown in millions of stems while orange and. coconut production are shown in millions of fruits. Sources: Equipe Teonioa de Estatistica Agropecuaria and Instituto Brasileiro do Cafe. Figures for,z 1970 are preliminary. Table 7.15: MINEIMUM AN-D FARM GATE PRICES OF SELECTED COMMODITIES IN SAO PAULO, 1965-70 (In Cr$) 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 Seed Cotton (15 kg) Farm gate price 3.77 h.27 5.20 6.95 8.12 9.A6 Minimum price 2.66 2.77 3.75 5.69 6.21 6.79 Peanuts (25 kg) Farm gate price 4.16 5.35 4.85 7.46 9.32 10.41 Minimum price 2.70 3.49 L.35 5.18 6.38 7.99 Rice (60 kg) Farm gate price 6.22 14.92 13.65 22.50 22.76 21.37 Minimum price 5.62 6.26 8.81 11.01 14.22 18.0o Beans (60 kg) Farm gate price 10.37 25.46 18.71 23.10 56.13 43.89 Minimum price 6.52 8.10 13.50 15.21 20.18 25.11 Soybeans (6C kg) Farm gate price 8.00 12.92 12.97 16.62 20.46 23.15 Minimum price 4.57 5.70 6.52 7.90 10.05 12.64 Corn (60 kg) Farm gate price 3.79 5.55 6.24 6.60 11.05 11.82 Minimum price 3.26 3.61 5.25 5.62 7.46 9.00 Sources: CFP and Secretaria da Agricultura, Sao Paulo. Table 7.16: PROFITABILITY OF SELECTED CROPS IN SAO PAULO, 1964-65 TO 1969-70 (In Cr$ per ha) Coffee Peanuts Rice Soybearn Cotton Corn 1964-65 Gross Income 300 433 193 168 423 159 Production Costs 194 211 147 107 310 122 Gross Profits l-5 T222 T7 77 113 37 1965-66 Gross Income 303 556 463 271 444 233 Production Costs 291 320 221 165 448 192 Gross Profits 12 237 106 T -- 1966-67 Gross Income 406 504 578 298 541 262 Production Costs 334 372 253 192 540 218 Gross Profits 72 32 3-2 17 =06 1 * 1967-68 Gross Income 600 775 688 34° 733 264 Production Costs 394 441 301 239 656 250 Gross Profits 206 337 377 lC 77 -17 1968-69 Gross Income 1C16 969 7c6 430 984 464 Production Costs 534 571 416 320 838 334 Gross Profits 4 2 797 2S0 110 T1N 130 1969-70 Gross Income 1399 1034 662 579 961 602 Production Costs 568 744 479 385 777 472 Gross Profits 37330 1-3 75 1SC 130 Note: Production costs include labor, nonfarm national inputs, depreciation but exclude managers' salaries, interest and taxes. Source: Secretaria da Agricultura, Sao Paulo. Table 8.1: VALUE OF OUTPUT IN MAIUFACTURIIOG INDUSTRIES, SELECTED YEARS, l949-yo (In Cr$ millions 1969) 1949 1953 1958 1964 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 Traditional consumer goods 132303 15,703 20.268 27,510 25,828 25,889 29,283 31,319 33 1.4 Textiles 3,914 4,148 5,120 6,646 7,126 6,374 8,245 8,164 8,156 Clothing and footwear 917 1,193 1,483 1,804 2,061 1,984 2,200 2,259 2,664 Food 6,592 8,120 10,563 15,377 12,384 12,981 13,702 15,331 16,826 Beverages 640 739 973 1,285 1,333 1,363 1,515 1,678 2,692 Tobacco 302 414 493 626 623 755 832 917 975 Printing and publishing 582 585 871 929 1,329 1,474 1,671 1,803 1,893 Furniture and fixtures 356 504 765 843 972 958 1,118 1,167 1,225 Intermediate goods 5.908 9,939 14,110 22,376 26,391 25,120 29,900 32,400 37,202 Non-metallic mineral 944 1,229 1,866 2,360 2,643 2,746 3,325 3,536 4,432 Metal industries 1,587 2,164 4,021 6,170 6,752 6,317 7,845 8,597 9,102 Wood and products 568 919 1,059 1,256 1,301 1,157 1,604 1,872 1,965 Paper and products 421 616 1,057 1,400 1,686 2,018 1,961 2,094 2,455 Rubber and products 326 478 723 1,203 1,325 1,201 1,552 1,611 1,966 Leather and products 319 360 481 489 576 558 601 546 574 Chemicals 1,743 4,173 4,903 9,498 12,108 11,124 13,012 14,144 16,708 Capital goods 1,082 1,477 4,963 10,349 12,281 11.484 13,972 16,019 18,647 Mechanical 324 446 923 1,615 2,373 2,486 3,272 3,871 4,510 Electrical 304 604 1,612 3,045 3,512 3,427 4,226 4,628 393 Transport equipment 454 427 2,428 5,689 6,396 5,571 6,474 7,520 844 Other 287 454 809 667 1_059 886 976 1,019 I1,P2 Total 20,580 27,573 40,150 60a902 65,559 63,379 74,131 80,757 -,oo0 Source: IBGE- Proauoao Industrial. Table 8.2: DISTRIBUTION OF VALUE OF OUTPUT BY INDUSTRY BRANCH, SELECTED YEARS, l949-69 (Percentages) 1949 1953 1958 1964 1966 1967 1968 1969 Traditional consumer goods 64.5 56.9 50.5 45.1 39.4 40.9 39.5 38.8 Textiles 19.0 15.0 12.8 10.9 10.9 10.1 11.1 10.1 Clothing and footwear 4.4 4.3 3.7 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.8 Food 32.0 29.5 26.3 25.2 18.9 20,5 18.5 19.0 Beverages 3.1 2.7 2.4 2.1 2.0 2.2 2,0 2.1 Tobacco 1.5 1.5 1.2 1.0 10 1.2 1.1 1.1 Printing and publishing 2.8 2.1 2.2 1.5 2.0 2.3 2.3 2.2 Furniture and fixtures 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 Intermediate goods 28.7 36.0 35.1 36.8 40.3 39.6 40.4 40.1 Non-metallic mineral 4.6 4.5 4,6 3.9 4.0 4.3 4.5 4.4 Metal industries 7.7 7.8 10.1 10.1 10.3 10.0 10.6 10.6 Wood and products 2.8 3.3 2,6 2.1 2.0 1.8 2.2 2.3 Paper and products 2,0 2.2 2.6 2.3 2.6 3.2 2.6 2.6 Rubber and products 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.0 1.9 2.1 2.0 Leather and products 1.5 1.3 1.2 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 Chemicals 8.5 15.2 12.2 15.6 18.5 17.5 17.6 17.5 Capital goods 5,3 5,4 12.3 17.0 18.7 18.1 18.8 1908 Mechanical 1.6 1,6 2.3 2.7 3.6 3.9 4.4 4.8 Electrical 1.5 2.2 4.0 5,0 5.3 5.4 5.7 5.7 Transport equipment 2,2 1,6 6.0 9.3 9.8 8.8 8.7 9.3 Other 1.5 1.7 2.1 1,1 1.6 1.4 1.3 1,3 Total 100,0 100.0 100,0 100MO 100,0 100.0 100.0 1.OOO Source: .r1Es Pr.o&o'cao Indu.strial. Table 8.3: GROSS VALUE ADDED IN MANUFACTURING I-DUSTRIE, 1949, 1958 AND 1966-69 (In Cr$ millions 1969) 1949 1958 1966 1967 1968 1969 Traditional consumer goods 5,217 7,735 11,983 11,284 12,537 13,383 Textiles 1,835 2,270 3,574 3,067 3,908 3,919 Clothing and footwear 407 679 1,046 973 1,071 1,099 Food 1,867 3,047 4,770 4,510 4,478 4,988 Beverages 396 526 814 796 921 1,037 Tobacco 144 258 362 459 509 569 Printing and publishing 363 544 873 952 1,064 1,157 Furniture and fixtures 205 411 544 527 586 614 Intermediate goods 3,184 7,048 14,044 13,208 15,732 16,658 Non-metallic mineral 663 1,177 1,618 1,736 2,127 2,261 Metal industries 885 2,027 3,628 3,261 4,144 4,441 Wood and products 291 590 794 671 884 1,015 Paper and products 211 463 787 1,007 970 1,030 Rubber and products 168 304 675 550 776 8C) Leather and products 122 209 273 263 279 2'4 Chemicals 844 2,278 6,269 5,720 6,552 6.858 Capital goods 519 2,383 6,469 6,099 7.076 8 120 Mechanical 194 508 1,473 1,580 1,933 2,330 Electrical 151 723 1,945 1,903 2,301 2,432 Transport equipment 174 1,152 3,051 2,616 2,842 3,358 Other 171 450 687 577 628 66_ Total 9,091 17,616 33,183 31,168 35,973 382,8Z- Source: IBGE: Producao Industrial. Table 8.4: DISTRIBUTION OF VALUE OF OUTPUT BY REGION, 1949, 1958 AND 1969 1949 1958 1969 North 0.5 0.7 0.7 Northeast 10.1 6.9 6.7 East 27.7 24.1 22.4 Guanabra 14.1 11.5 9.0 South 61.1 67.7 69.3 Sao Paulo -47.9 55.2 56.6 Rio Grande do Sul 8.6 7.9 6.7 Center-West o.6 0.6 0.9 Brazil 100.0 100.0 100.0 Note: 1949 is based on the census, including all establishments; 1958 and 1969 are based on industrial surveys of firms with 5 or more workers. Sources: IBGE: Brazil, Censo Industrial, IBGE: Producao Industrial Brasileira, 1950 and 19b9. Table 8.5: VALUE ADDED AMD EMPLOYMENT BY SIZE OF FIRM, 1958, 1966 AND 1969 Share in Value Added Share in Employment (% (%) 1958 1966 1969 1958 1966 1969 Establishments Enploying 6 to 19 workers 9.5 6.21/ 4.82/ 12.8 8.41/ 7b42/ 20 to 49 t 12.0 8.7 7.9 13.3 11.4 10.8 50 to 99 " 11.0 9.9 9.6 11.3 11.5 11.6 100 to 499 " 34.6 32.0 33.0 33.2 32.2 33.0 500 and over 32.9 43.2 44.7 29.4 36.5 37.2 1/ Includes some establishments employing five or less workers. 2/ Five to nineteen workers. Source: IBGE: Producao Industrial. Table 8.6: NUMBER OF FIRMS AND AVERAGE EMPLOYMENT PER FIRM, 1958, 1966 AND 1969 Number of Firms Average Employment per Firm 1958 1966 1969 195 1966 1969 Traditional Consumer Goods 11,823 14,991 14 804 63 55 57 Textiles 2,533 1,935 133 75 Food 3,299 5,820 6,378 51 39 38 Intermediate Goods 10,595 11,230 11,401 50 61 67 -WMetal s 1,o19 1,691 T8W 12l2 Chemicals 1,259 1,973 2,196 83 88 87 Capital Goods 1 925 2 285 2,371 92 139 157 Mechanical 58 1 1,155 -537 -U5 95 Electrical 1416 624 613 123 152 185 Transport Equipment 651 597 603 114 224 247 Other 910 854 753 50 54 55 Total 25,253 29,360 29,329 59 64 69 Source: IBGE: Producao Industrial. Table 8,7: FIXE INVESTMENT IN MA1NUFACTURING INDUSTRIES, 1962-69 (In Cr$ millions 1969) 1962. 3,313 1963 2,844 196)4 2,549 1965 2,628 1966 3,106 1967 3,092 1968 3,7)42 1969 h,,597 Note: Current price data were deflated by the FOV investment deflator. Source: IBGE: Producao Industrial. Table 8.8: VALUE OF FIXED TNVESTMENT IN PROJECTS APPROVED BY CDI, 1965-70 (In US$ millions) 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 Traditional Consumer Goods 1.5 4.4 100.3 93d4 132.1 149.9 Textile, Clothing - - 43-9 I W79 105.2 -96; Leather and Shoes 1.5 1.1 1.0 2.1 3.6 3.8 Food - 3.3 55.4 44.4 23.3 49.6 Intermediate Goods 60.6 275.5 190.0 183.3 763.1 753.8 Non-metallic Mineral - - 9.6 47.6 144.9 TM4.1 Metal Industries 9.6 105.7 16.6 10.3 324.3 134.1 Paper, Pulp and Printing - - 12.0 33.9 37.1 110.4 Chemicals 51.0 169.8 151.8 94.5 256.8 315.2 Capital Goods 119.9 76.6 191.1 60.3 155.3 382.6 Transport Equipment and Mechanical 119.9 76.6 199.0 -35w 134*2 -3659 Electrical - - 2.1 24.7 21.1 16.7 Total 182.0 356.5 481.14 337.0 1,050.5 1,286.3 Source: CDI. Table 8.9: FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMEiT, 1956-69 (In us$ millions) New Re- Capital Invested Total Inflow Earnings i1956-1959z-/ 117 34 151 1960 99 39 138 1961 108 39 147 1962 69 63 132 1963 30 57 87 1964 28 58 86 1965 70 84 154 1966 74 85 159 1967 76 39 115 1968 63 48 111 1969 n.a. n.a. 136 1/ Annual Average. Source: Central Bank. Table 8.10: EMPLOYMENT IN MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES, 1949, 1958 AND 1966-69 (Thousand workers) 1949 1958 1966 1967 1968 1969 Consumer goods 787 882 940 935 973 975 Textiles 339 337 341 329 350 340 Clothing and footwear 77 101 118 122 124 123 Food 232 265 265 265 273 285 Beverages 38 46 56 53 56 57 Tobacco 13 15 22 22 19 18 Printing and publishing 49 58 76 80 85 86 Furniture and fixtures 39 60 62 64 66 66 Intermediate goods 407 605 788 801 862 881 Non-metallic mineral 130 150 156 153 167 174 Metal industries 100 168 239 245 266 270 Wood and products 51 92 89 86 97 99 Paper and products 25 39 55 61 61 65 Rubber products 9 19 28 28 33 31 Leather products 21 27 23 25 27 25 Chemicals 71 110 198 203 211 217 Capital goods 61 182 360 371 421 421 Mechanical 26 52 100 103 118 124 Electrical 16 54 108 119 131 128 Transport equipment 19 76 152 149 172 169 Other 27 50 52 51 49 48 Total 1.282 1,719 2,140 2,158 2.305 2,325 Source: IBGE: Produoao Industrial. Table&5.11: WAGES AND SALAR-IS IN MANUYACTURING INDUSTRIES, 1949, 1958 AN'D 1966-69 (In Cr millions 1969) 1949 1958 1966 1967 1968 1969 Consumer goods 1.471 2.350 2,858 2,687 2.982 3.141 Textiles 654 875 910 878 1,009 1,029 Clothing and footwear 145 254 302 303 326 332 Food 333 632 894 732 772 828 Beverages 74 141 184 185 206 217 Tobacco 34 42 71 69 72 75 Printing and publishing 144 236 312 340 398 446 Furniture and fixtures 87 170 185 180 199 214 Intermediate goods 870 1,912 3,028 3,182 3,502 3,857 Non-metallic mineral 210 368 436 425 500 546 Metal industries 284 632 1,011 1,080 1,178 1,295 Wood and products 87 187 202 193 213 240 Paper and products 54 126 187 226 239 260 Rubber products 33 79 123 128 153 150 Leather products 35 69 62 72 79 76 Chemicals 170 451 1,007 1,058 1,140 1,290 Capital goods 194 740 1.853 1.907 2.229 2.534 Mechanical 80 198 454 486 600 701 Electrical 46 217 499 546 626 685 Transport equipment 68 325 900 875 1,003 1,148 Other 57 156 187 169 176 185 Total 7.96 ,892 8198 7926 2945 888 9,717 Source: )1(EY Producao Inrdustriala Table 8.12: PERCENTAGE OF WAGES AND SALARIES IN GROSS VALUE ADDED, 1949, 1958 AND 1966-69 1949 1958 1966 1967 1968 1969 Traditional consumer goods 28.2 30.4 23.8 23.8 23.8 23.5 Textiles 35.6 38.5 25.4 28.6 25,8 26.3 Clothing and footwear 35.7 37.4 28.9 31.1 30.4 30.2 Food 17.9 20.7 18.7 16.2 17.2 16.6 Beverages 18.7 26.8 22.6 23.2 22.4 20.9 Tobacco 23.5 16.4 19.7 15.0 14.1 13.2 Printing and publishing 39.4 43.3 35.7 35.7 37.4 38.5 Furniture and fixtures 42.2 41.5 34 0 34.2 34.0 34.9 Intermediate goods 27.4 27.1 21,6 24.1 22.3 23.2 Non-metallic mineral 31.7 31.3 26.9 24.5 23.5 24.1 Metal industries 32,1 31.2 27.9 33,1 28.4 29.2 Wood and products 29.9 31.8 25.4 28.8 24.1 23.6 Paper and products 25.5 27.2 23.8 22.4 24.6 25.2 Rubber and products 19.1 25.8 18.2 23.3 19.7 18.5 Leather and products 28.8 33.0 22,6 27.4 28.3 31.1 Chemicals 20.3 19.8 16.1 18.5 17.4 18.8 Capital goods 37,2 30.8 28.7 31.3 31.5 31.2 Mechanical 41.1 39.0 30.8 30.8 31.0 30.1 Electrical 30,6 30.0 25.7 28.7 27,2 28.2 Transport equipment 39.0 28.2 29.4 33.4 35.3 34.2 Other 33.5 34.6 27.2 29.3 28.0 27.8 Total 28,5 29.3 23,9 25.5 24.7 25.0 Source: IIBGE: Producao Industrial. Table 8.13: WAGES AND SALARIES PER EMPLOYEE, 1949, 1958 AND 1966-69 (In Cr$ million 1969) 1949 1958 1966 1967 1968 1969 Traditional consumer goods 1.868 2,664 3,039 2,874 3,065 3,222 Textiles 1,928 2,595 2,667 2,669 2,883 3,026 Clothing and footwear 1,887 2,513 2,560 2,484 2,629 2,699 Food 1,438 2,385 3,373 2,762 2,828 2,905 Beverages 1,947 3,071 3,279 3,491 3,679 3,807 Tobacco 2,613 2,816 3,240 3,136 3,789 4,167 Printing and publishing 2,921 4,064 4,101 4,250 4,682 5,186 Furniture and fixtures 2,220 2,836 2,981 2,813 3,015 3,242 Intermediate goods 2,145 3,159 3,843 3,973 4,063 4.378 Non-metallic mineral 1,618 2,457 2,795 2,778 2,994 3,138 Metal industries 2,839 3,759 4,230 4,408 4,429 4,796 Wood and products 1,706 2,040 2,266 2,244 2,196 2,424 Paper and products 2,160 3,223 3,404 3,705 3,918 4,000 Rubber and products 3,577 4,136 4,401 4,571 4,636 4,839 Leather and products 1,673 2,550 2,678 2,880 2,926 3,040 Chemicals 2,405 4,096 5,088 5,212 5,403 5,945 Capital goods 3,167 4,070 5,147 5,140 5,295 6,019 Mechanical 3,065 3,815 4,542 4,718 5,085 5,653 Electrical 2,884 4,025 4,619 4,588 4,779 5,352 Transport equipment 3,565 4,278 5,920 5,872 5,831 6,793 Other 2,122 3,118 3,601 3,314 3.592 3,854 Total 20022 3 001 3 704 33683856 4 17 Table 8.14: GROSS VALUE ADDED PER EMPLOYEE, 1949, 1958 AND 1966-69 1949 1958 1966 1967 1968 1969 Taitionlscnsmeroods 6,631 8 7 70 12,747 12,068 12,885 13,726 Textiles 5,414 6,737 10,482 9,322 11,166 11,526 Clothing and footwear 5,283 6,723 8,866 7,975 8,637 8,935 Food 8,049 11,499 17,997 17,019 16,403 17,502 Beverages 10,426 11,441 14,539 15,019 16,446 18,193 Tobacco 11,115 . 17,184 16,472 20,864 26,789 31,611 Printing and publishing 7,409 9,375 11,476 11,900 12,518 13,453 Furniture and fixtures 5,266 6,843 8,768 8,234 8,879 9,303 Intermediate goods 7,825 11.650 17,823 6489 18251 18,90 Non-metallic mineral 5,101 7,844 10,377 11,346 12,737 12,994 Metal industries 8,855 12,067 15,179 13,310 15,579 16,448 Wood and products 5,709 6,412 8,921 7,802 9,113 10,253 Paper and products 8,457 11,873 14,321 16,508 15,902 15,846 Rubber and products 1 18,716 16,007 24,117 19,643 23,515 26,097 Leather products 5,806 7,735 11,8,70 10,520 10,333 9,760 Chemicals 11,882 20,714 31,664 28,177 31,052 31,604 Capital goods 8,503 . 13,096 17,965 16,439 16,808 19,287 Mechanical 7,461 9,775 14,726 15,340 16,381 18,790 Electrical 9,436 13,396 18,008 15,992 17,565 19,000 Transport equipment 9,145 15,158 20,075 17,557 16,523 19,870 Other 6,334 9. 13,218 11,314 12,816 13,854 Total 7.087 10,247 15,505 14.443 15,607 16,699 Source: IBGE: Producao Industrial. Table 8.15: IMPORTS AS A PERCENTAGE OE THE DOMESTIC YjAFRhET FOR MANUFACTURED PRODUCTS, l969 (In Cr$ millions 1969) Imports Production Imports Exports Market as % of Market Traditional consumer goods 31,319 263 395 31,i87 0.8 Textiles 8,164 71 76 8,159 0.9 Clothing and footwear 2,259 6 11 2,254 0o3 Food 15,331 118 291 15,158 0.8 Beverages 1,678 18 4 1,692 1.1 Tobacco 917 - 5 912 - Printing and publishing 1,803 49 6 1,846 2.6 Furniture and fixtures 1,167 1 2 1,166 0.1 Intermediate goods 32,400 3,098 1,0 34,290 9.0 Non-metallic mineral 3,536 121 60 3,597 3.4 Metal industries 8,597 1,152 230 9,519 12.1 Wood and products 1,872 3 457 1,418 0.2 Paper and products 2,094 197 14 2,277 8.7 Rubber and products 1,611 19 4 1,626 1.2 Leather and products 546 2 47 501 0.4 Chemicals 14,144 1,604 396 15,352 10.4 Capital goods 16,019 3146 245 18,9 16.6 Mechanical 3,871 1,746 180 5,437 32.1 Electrical 4,628 692 37 5,283 13.1 Transport equipment 7,520 708 28 8,200 8.6 Other 1 019 359 20 1,358 26.4 Total 80,757 6,866 1,868 85,7 8.0 Note: - Means that the figure is negligible. Source: TBGE: Producao LTdustrial. Table -8.16: COMPETITIPVENESS OF BRAZILIAN AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY, DECEMBER 1969 (In US$) Domestic Internat'n al Price PriceL Price! Ratio Passenger Cars Model I 1,841 1,364 1.35 Model II 5,370 3,303 1.63 Microbuses, Pick-up Trucks, Jeeps Model I 3,306 2,714 1.22 Model II 2,381 2,511 0.95 Bis 13,1460 15,404 0.87 Trucks Model I 4,x082 3,166 1.29 Model II 14,139 9,661 1.46 1/ At factor cost, i.e. excluding IPI and ICM taxes on both final product and inputs. 2/ CIF, Santos. Source: IPEA. Table 8.17: COMPETITIVENESS OF BRAZILIAN CHEMICALS INDUSTRY,1970 RATIO OF DOMESTIC PRICEPY TO F.O.B. IMPORT PRICE A. Basic Industrial Chemicals Sulfuric Acid 1.1 Caustic Soda 1.6 Benzene 1.L Calcium Carbide 1.1 Ammonia 2.5 Acetone 3.0 B. Plastic Materials and Synthetic Fibers Polyethylene 1.6 PYC 1.6 Nylon 2.7 Rayon 1.3 Formaldehyde Styrene 1.8 Adipic Acid 1.3 C. Fertilizers and Fertilizer Raw Materials Ammonium Nitrate 2.3 Phosphoric Acid 1.6 Nitrogenous Fertilizer 1.4 Phosphate Fertilizers 2.0 1/ Including IPI, excluding ICM. Source: IPEA. Table 8. L8, COMPARISON OF PRICES FOR PETROCHEMICALS AND DOWNSTREAM PRODUCTS Petroquimica's Present Present Initial Domestic Prices Impcrt Product Unit Pri.e Ran riLU S. D Hydrogen 0/1;CF 50 75 50 60 _ Ethylene p/lb. 4.5 - 5 7.6 3.5-)4-0 3.5- - Propylene f/gaa. 12.5 22,5 9.0 9-13 - Butadiene ¢/1b. 5.o x) 14-5 6.o 5.0 - Benzene ;,/gal. 30 - 35 37f0 27.0 26r ' 5 Aromati.c Oil 0/galo 10 105 7.0 8.0 X) contained in C4-stream Prices achi evable w,ith ?otrcq,;`--i.-icats interi'm diat;. s - in ¢/lb. High Density Polyet'llayler-3 21 32.7 2h.5 18.5 27.,5 LoIJ Density Polyetiylen_ 13-21 26xO l5.O 13.0 2765 Vinyl Chloride irioncn.er 10 i6,o0 8.h 8.0 33.0 Pcluyr.nyl C,;b ride 20 2L.3 15.0 16.5 660 Styrene 1Hionu.uner 10 15.2 9.0 8.0 16r5 Polystyrene 20 26,9 16.0 15.5 66.o Vinyl Acetate Ionomer 20 23.6 1h.0 12.0 ;/ 38.0 Polyvinyl Acetate 2L 36,5 16.0 1565 Ethylene Oxfite 20 - 14.5 15.5 11.0 2 Dodecylbenzene 15 20.0 12.0 10.0 55.0 ° SBR Rubber 22 22.5 19.0 23.0 22.0 Carbon Black 12 14.4 9.2 8.0 55.0 Nylon 66 100 1^2- 78.3 90.0 33.0 Phthalic Anh,ydride 20 33.8 15.0 12.0 33s0 All ¢ are U.S.j gJ Prices of 8-10¢/lb. are reported from new huge plants. L/ Ethylene glycol. 3/ Synthetic detergents. Source: IFC President's Report on Petroquimica Uniao Investment (IFC/P51), November 29, 1968, Annex 6. Table 8.19: DOMESTIC PRICES OF SEIEC1 STEEL PRODUCTS - BRAZIL, GERMANY, FRANCE (In us$) BRAZIL GERMANY FRANCE (Sao Paulo) (Essen) (Thionville) Plates 149.60 137.98 128.83 Hol Rolled Coil 152.72 136.61 128.83 Cold Rolled Sheet 221.13 176.23 163.24 Note: All prices are net of taxes. Sources: European Coal and Steel Community Bulletin of Prices (December 1970) and Official Brazilian Price Lists (February 1971). Table 8.20: COMPETITIVENESS OF BRAZILIAN HEAVY ELECTRTCAL EQUIPMENT INDUSTRY, 1965 (In US$ thousands) Value of Corresponding Cost Price Domestic Output if Imported Ratio Transformers 8,620 6,360 1.35 Generators 536 357 1.50 Motors and Others 5,280 4,220 1.25 TOTAL 14,436 10,937 1.31 Source: A.Ciringiroglu, Manufacture of Heavy Electrical Equipment in Developing Countries, p. 11Z. . i~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Table 8.21: COMPETITIVENESS OF BRAZILIAN ELECTRICAI COMPLIANCES INDUSTRY, JULY 1970 ktati' of Domestic_'/Price Adjusted to International2/ Price Price Ratio3/ TV Set 12" (table) 1.58 1.35 TV Set 23" " 1.09 .70 TV Picture Tube 231" .84 .64 Radio Transistor .88 .54 Iron, Automatic (w/o Steam) 1.87 1.78 Iron, " " " i1.40 1.27 Electric Mixer (Portable) 3.09 3-04 Electric Range 1.37 NA Air Conditioning Unit (12000 Btu) 1.00 .82 Washing Machine (Spin) 1.74 NA if "i It 1.16 .85 Refrigerator 12 cu. ft. .81 .85 it 10 t" "t .46 .50 "1 12.7 " " .67 .71 it 12.7 "I 1 .69 .65 1/ Excluding excise taxes (IPI and ICM). 2/ CIF price of foreign similar, excluding tariff and other import costs. 3/ Reflects the higher cost of inputs for domestic producer in relation to foreign producer. Source: F. Masson "Projection, Prices and Efficiency in the Brazilian Electrical Appliance Industry", July 1970. Table 8.22: INDUSTRIAL PROTECTION, 1966-70 (Percent) Nominal Protection Effective Protection -Junl 1966 April 1967- J-uly- 1970 di une -19-66 April 1967 J ULy i9 (U Food products 91 33 48 247 131 205 Beverages and tobacco 181 73 170 410 170 422 Other consumer non-durables 148 57 113 256 104 246 Consumer durables 157 78 126 416 213 374 Low-level intermediates 64 24 29 24 -15 23 High-level intermediates 101 53 64 178 128 176 Machinery]j 39 19 22 35 I8 31 nransport equipment_l 29 12 16 8 -1 16 All manufacturing 96 43 61 174 90 161 1/ For imported capital goods, the ratio of actual import duties paid to CIF value of imports was used as the tariff. Source: Joel Bergsman, "Foreign Trade Policy in Brazil" February 1971. Table 8.25: PROFITABILITY OF MANUFACTURING ENTERPRISES 1/ (In Cr$ millions 1969) 1967 1968 1969 Profits Capital P/C % Profits Capital P/C % Profits Capital P/C % Traditional Consumer Goods 410 2 747 14.9 536 3,1438 15.6 688 4,016 17.1 Textiles ---,E I 33 133 t594 M,9 -5 1,05 11rT. Clothing and footwear 32 199 16.1 56 261 21.5 66 370 17.8 Food 1214 1,123 11.0 150 1,328 11.3 256 iM.) 129.14 Beverages 61 381 16.0 66 h21 15.7 89 532 16.7 Tobacco 81 241 33.6 101 348 29.0 10o 1496 22.0 Printing and publishing 26 158 16,5 30 186 16.1 48 241 19.9 Intermediate Goods 814 6 076 13.4 1,233 8,384 14.7 1,507 10,222 14.7 Non-met. minerals mfgs. 89 555 16.0 146 678 21.5 236 1,055 %2h7T Metal industries 130 1,760 7.4 224 2,263 9.9 344 2,903 11.8 Wood and furniture 6 43 14.0 15 67 22.4 14 108 13.0 Paper and products 59 301 19.6 70 458 15.3 70 432 16.2 Rubber and products 73 393 18.6 84 500 16.8 115 668 17.2 Chemicals 463 3,024 15.3 694 4,418 15.7 728 5,056 14.4 Capital Goods 199 2,111 9.4 398 2,361 16.9 567 3,231 17.5 Mechanical 36 370 1073 87 522 17S7T 99 591 1. Electrical 60 476 12.6 150 619 24.2 192 791 24.3 Transport equipment 101 1,265 8.o 161 1,220 13.2 276 1,849 14.9 Other 81 1,020 7.9 2147 932 26.5 162 1,107 14.6 Total 1,5014 11,9514 12.6 2,1414 15,115 16.0 2,924 18,576 15.7 h/Among the 500 largest firms. Source: Getulio Vargas Foundation. I Table 9.1: TRENDS IN PRINCIPAL PRICE INDICES Index (1965-67 = 100) Percent Increase Over Prior Year Implicit GDP Deflator General Wholesale Cost Construc- General Wholesale Cost Construc- Index Percent Price Prices of tion Price Prices of tion (1965-67 = 100) Increase Index Living Costs Index Living Costs Annual 1960 6.64 6.92 6.44 5.87 29.2 31.3 29.3 17.4 6.74 26.3 Averages 1961 9.10 9.72 8.58 8.43 37.0 40.5 33.2 43.6 8.98 33.3 1962 13.8 14.6 13.01 12.0 51.6 50.2 51.5 42.3 13.91 54.8 1963 24.2 25.7 22.2 22.6 75.4 76.0 70.8 88.3 24.75 78.0 1964 46.1 46.6 42.5 41.2 88.9 81.3 91.4 82.3 46.49 87.8 1965 72.3 71.6 70.5 69.9 56.8 53.6 65.9 69.7 72.26 55.4 1966 99.7 101 99.6 95.5 37.9 41.1 41.3 36.6 100.3 38.8 1967 128 128 130 135 28.4 26.7 30.5 41.4 127.4 27.0 1968 159 157 159 178 24.2 22.7 22.3 31.9 163.2 28.1 1969 192 187 194 210 20.8 19.1 22.0 18.0 198.6 21.7 1970 230 223 238 245 19.8 19.3 22.7 16.7 Monthly Averages Jan. 1970 211 206 216 221 19.9 18.4 22.0 13.9 Feb. 1970 214 209 220 224 19.6 18.8 22.9 12.0 Mar. 1970 218 213 224 230 21.1 22.4 22.4 13.9 Apr. 1970 219 212 226 237 20.3 20.4 22.2 16.7 May 1970 222 215 229 244 20.7 20.8 22.5 16.7 June 1970 227 220 234 247 20.6 20.4 22.5 17.3 July 1970 231 224 238 250 19.7 19.1 22.0 16.8 Aug. 1970 236 229 245 252 20.4 19.3 23.7 17.8 Sept. 1970 241 234 251 256 20.5 19.4 23.6 18.3 Oct. 1970 245 237 256 257 19.5 17.9 23.0 18.4 Nov. 1970 246 239 258 258 18.7 17.2 21.7 18.5 Dec. 1970 248 241 260 260 19.3 18.5 20.9 18.7 Jan. 1971 252 245 264 263 19.7 18.7 21.9 19.1 Feb. 1971 256 249 267 268 19.8 19.0 21.5 19.7 Mar. 1971 255 272 19.7 21.4 Apr. 1971 260 274 22.6 21.2 May 1971 265 27 9 23.3 21.8 Source: Vargas Foundation. The "general price index" is a weighted average of the wholesale price index (60 percent), the cost of living index (30 per- cent) and the cost of construction index (10 percent). The general price index and the wholesale price index are the "supply for domestic use" versions of these two indices; there is an altermative version giving greater weight to export commodities which is strongly influenced by coffee price trends. Both the cost of livinS and cost of construction indices are for Guanabara (Rio de Janeiro city). The implicit GDP deflator is based on the Vargas Foundation national accounts estimates as revised in June 1970. Table 9.2: BRAZIL - TRENDS IN INDICES OF SECTOR PRICES Index (1965-67 = 100) Percent Increases Over Prior Year Industrial Agricultural Domestic Food Items Other COL Industrial Agricultural Domestic Food Items Other COL Products Products Foodstuffs in COL Items Products Products Foodstuffs in COL items Annual Averages 1960 6.71 7.09 6.79 7.05 5.94 23.5 38.2 36.6 30.3 28.3 1961 9.56 9.56 9.26 9.50 7.83 42.3 34.8 36.4 34.8 31.8 1962 13.9 15.3 14.9 15.4 11.0 45.4 60.0 60.9 62.1 40.5 1963 25.4 25.3 25.4 25.5 19.5 82.7 65.4 70.5 65.6 77.3 1964 46.6 50.5 46.5 50.0 36.4 83.5 99.6 83.1 96.1 86.7 1965 75.2 71.9 68.4 73.5 68.0 61.4 42.4 47.1 47.0 86.8 1966 99.5 102 103 102 97.6 32.3 41.9 50.6 38.8 43.5 1967 125 127 129 125 134 25.6 24.5 25.2 22.5 37.3 1968 163 149 150 141 174 30.4 17.3 16.3 12.8 29.9 1969 196 181 185 174 210 20.2 21.5 23.3 23.4 20.7 1970 229 234 228 218 254 16.8 29.3 23.2 25.3 21.0 Monthly Averages Jan. 1970 211 215 210 197 232 14.7 32.8 26.5 27.1 19.0 Feb. 1970 213 220 214 201 236 14.6 34.2 27.2 26.8 20.4 Mar. 1970 217 224 218 206 239 16.1 38.4 29.6 26.8 20.1 Apr. 1970 218 220 214 206 242 15.7 34.2 28.0 23.5 21.0 May 1970 224 219 215 208 246 17.3 33.3 27.9 24.4 21.2 June 1970 228 227 222 213 251 15.5 35.2 26.8 25.6 20.7 July 1970 231 232 228 216 256 17.0 32.6 23.3 25.8 19.6 Aug. 1970 235 239 235 225 261 17.8 31.2 23.0 29.3 19.7 Sept. 1970 239 245 240 232 267 18.2 25.4 20.8 28.7 20.3 Oct. 1970 241 250 245 237 272 18.7 20.8 17.6 26.4 20.9 Nov. 1970 242 254 247 239 274 18.2 24.0 16.5 22.7 20.7 Dec. 1970 245 255 249 239 277 18.9 20.4 18.3 20.9 21.0 Jan. 1971 247 262 256 244 280 17.0 21.8 21.9 23.8 20.7 Feb. 1971 250 266 262 248 283 17.2 20.8 22.3 23.7 19.9 Mar. 1971 253 278 274 255 16.6 24.1 25.7 23.8 Apr. 1971 259 281 277 257 18.8 27.7 29.4 24.8 May 1971 264 284 283 261 17.9 29.7 31.6 25.5 Source: Vargas Foundation. The "Industrial Products" and "Agricultural Products" indices are components of the "total supply" version of the wholesale price index; weights are based upon production plus imports. The "Domestic Foodstuffs" index is a component of the "supply for domestic use" version of the wholesale price index; weights are based upon production plus imports minus exports. The "Food Items" index is a component of the Guanabara (Rio de Janeiro city) cost of living index. The "Other COL Items" index is an average of all non-food items in this index calculated on the assumption that food items have a constant weight of 45 percent of the total. Table 9.3: TRENDS IN THE MINIMUM WAGE IN SELECTED AREAS (In Cr$ in current and constant prices) Guanabara Sao Paulo Porto Alegre Nominal Real Minimum Wage Nominal Real Minimum Wage Nominal Real Minimum Wage Minimum Index Minimum Index Minimum Index Wage 1965=100 Wage 1965-100 Wage 1965=100 Monthly Data Dec. 1962 13.44 95 13.22 90 11.20 94 Jan. 1963 21.00 147 21.00 134 18.30 136 Jan. 1964 21.00 76 21.00 74 18.30 76 Feb. 1964 42.00 140 42.00 139 36.60 140 Feb. 1965 42.00 80 42.00 77 36.60 74 Mar. 1965 66.00 116 66.00 116 60.00 115 Feb. 1966 66.00 87 66.00 83 60.00 88 Mar. 1966 84.00 106 84.00 102 76.50 105 Feb. 1967 84.00 81 84.00 79 76.50 81 Mar. 1967 105.00 98 105.00 95 95.63 98 Feb. 1968 105.00 101 105.00 78 95.63 83 Mar. 1968 129.60 98 129.60 95 117.60 99 April 1969 129.60 80 129.60 76 117.60 81 May 1969 156.00 95 156.00 88 141.60 98 April 1970 156.00 79 156.00 76 141.60 81 May 1970 187.20 93 187.20 90 170.40 96 April 1971 187.20 78 187.20 170.40 May 1971 225.60 92 225.60 208.80 Annual Averages 1962 119 114 115 1963 112 106 106 1964 109 107 110 1965 100 100 100 1966 93 90 92 1967 89 87 89 1968 89 85 90 1969 87 82 88 1970 85 83 87 Source: Central Bank. Figures are shown for the month in which the minimum wage was increased and for the previous month. Nominal minimum wages were deflated by the price indices for Guanabara (Rio de Janeiro city), Sao Paulo and Porto Alegre to obtain the real series for each area. Table 9.4: DISTRIBUTION OF WORKERS BY WEEKLY WAGE CATEGORIES (Thousands of workers) To 10.00 to 15.00 to 30.00 to 60.00 to 100.00 to 150.00 to 300.00 to 500.00 Un- Total 9.99 14.99 29.99 59,99 99.99 149.99 299.99 499.99 plus declared Workers 1969 (First Quarter) Northeast Agricultural Workers 295 254 207 13 2 1 1 - - - 773 Other Workers 264 186 618 481 156 74 60 25 3 18 1885 Parana, Sta. Catarina, Rio Grande do Sul Agricultural Workers 16 28 70 24 - - 1 - - - 139 Other Workers 42 89 449 794 226 105 60 14 4 16 1799 Minas Gerais, Espirito Santo Agricultural Workers 100 144 142 8 - 1 - - - 4 399 Other Workers 139 148 372 516 141 46 56 17 4 9 1448 Guanabara, State of Rio Agricultural Workers 5 19 30 9 - - - - - 2 65 Other Workers 24 39 222 879 420 146 130 30 8 119 2017 Sao Paulo Agricultural Workers 27 55 212 61 1 - - - - 6 362 Other Workers 63 136 522 1346 678 289 180 34 21 173 3442 Total Agricultural Workers 443 500 661 115 3 2 2 - - 12 1738 Other Workers 532 598 2183 4016 1621 660 486 120 40 335 10591 1970 (First Quarter) Northeast Agricultural Workers 228 209 318 28 5 1 1 - - - 790 Other Workers 202 143 478 673 209 97 90 25 12 10 1939 Parana, Sta. Catarina, Rio Grande do Sul Agricultural Workers 10 24 102 50 3 1 - - - 6 196 Other Workers 26 53 186 1011 401 125 117 26 10 27 1982 Minas Gerais, Espirito Santo Agricultural Workers 80 80 194 20 1 - - - - - 375 Other Workers 101 116 268 601 189 78 71 29 9 16 1478 Guanabara, State of Rio Agricultural Workers 6 6 36 16 3 - - - - 1 68 Other Workers 11 19 165 792 461 179 146 51 25 225 2074 Sao Paulo Agricultural Workers 9 15 160 114 2 1 2 - - 6 309 Other Workers 24 37 320 1403 792 437 299 105 48 109 3574 Total Agricultural Workers 333 334 810 228 14 3 3 - - 13 1738 Other Workers 364 368 1417 4480 2052 916 723 236 104 387 11047 .Source: Pesquisa Nacional por Ainostra de Domicilios, Fundacao, IBGE. Table 10.1: INVESTMENT PROGRAM - DEPARTAMENTO NACIONAL DE ESTRADAS DE RODAGEM (DNER) X (In Cr$ million at 1969 prices) 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 A. Current Receipts 990 994 1225 1509 1416 1522 1550 1658 1764 1. Non-Tax Revenues 10 13 13 29 30 30 30 30 30 2. Transfers from Treasury 980 981 1212 1480 1386 1492 1529 1628 1734 a. Earmarked 726) (851) (1080) (1150) (1231) (1317) (1409) (1508) (1614) b. Discretionary Transfers (154) (130) (132) (330) (155) (175) (120) (120) (120) B. Current Expenditures 271 308 375 391 414 438 456 472 1. Personnel 159 156 187 202 212 223 234 246 258 2. Other Consumption 76 115 121 173 170 191 204 210 214 C. Current Account Savings 65 723 917 1134 1025 1108 1112 1202 1292 D. Capital Receipts 311 345 518 304 242 357 261 107 36 1. Foreign Loans 84 163 374 250 207 328 223 81 - 2. Domestic Loans 131 162 96 54 - 3. Treasury Advance 96 120 48 65 35 29 38 26 36 E. Capital Expenditures 966 1168 1415 1503 1267 14 13 09 1328 1. Fixed Investment 896 1099 1218 1305 1127 1336 1264 1183 1220 2. Amortization of Foreign Loans 1 3 11 57 90 79 59 76 58 3. Other Capital Expenditures 69 66 206 141 50 50 50 5C 50 4. Increase in Cash Balances - - - - - - - 1/ Assumes IULC revenues remain constant in 1971 owing to 20 percent tax rate reduction and less than proportionate exchange rate depreciation. On basis of the latter, plus assumptions of no change in tax rates and an 11.5 percent consumption growth, IULC revenues will increase at 7 percent per annum in future. Note also PIN allocations for Transamazonica and Cuiaba-Santarem roads. Sources: DNEP and mission estimates. Table 10.2: INVESTMENT PROGRAM - STATE HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS (DERs) 1/ (In Cr$ million at 1969 prices) 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 A. Current Receipts 1088 1285 155 1677 1794 1921 2057 2203 2159 1. R6ad Tax - - 168 253 278 306 337 371 408 2. Transfers from State Budgets 590 620 657 696 737 781 828 878 930 3. Transfer from Treasury (IUCL) 498 665 728 728 779 834 892 954 1021 B. Current Expenditures X 621 683 1000 1100 1210 C. Current Account Savings 664 870 926 1012 1057 1103 1149 D. Capital Receipts 40 70 0 100 100 100 100 100 100 1. Foreign Loans 40 70 90 100 100 100 100 100 100 E. Capital Expenditures 559 734 960 1026 1068 1112 1157 1203 1249 1. Fixed Investment 594 742 890 1000 1038 1077 1117 1159 1193 2. Amortization Foreign Loans 20 20 30 35 45 50 55 60 65 3.--Other Capital Transactions -55 -28 -40 -9 -15 -15 -15 -16 -9 j/ Assumes: 7 percent change per annum IUCL growth after 1971; 10 percent change per annum road tax increase after 1971. Sources: DNER and mission estimates. Table 10.3: INVESTMENT PROGRAM - DEPARTAMENTO NACIONAL DE ESTRADAS DO FERRO (DNEF) (In Cr$ million at 1969 prices) 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 A. Current Receipts _ _ 1. Nontax Revenues - 3 - - - - - - - 2. Transfers from Treasury Current 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 Capital 75 56 75 80 60 - - - - B. Current Expenditures 7 11 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 C. Current Account Savings 75 56 75 80 60 - - - - D. Capital Receipts 23 - 23 - - 1. Domestic Loans 23 - 23 - - - - - E. Capital Expenditures 98 56 98 80 60 - - - - 1. Fixed Investment 98 56 98 80 60 - - - - Sources: DNEF and mission estimates. Table ID.4 JIri7ESTWiV24T PPOGRAyM - PY1R FPFRPOVIAEk: A FEDEPTAL, S.A. (1?PEF2A) (In Cr$ million at 1969 prices) 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 A *'ucrent Account Savings 180 326 239 267 287 312 349 380 466 1. Operating Profit -423 -428 -395 -360 -312 -245 -141 -48 58 Gross / (-5 87) (-534) (-474) (-421) (-363) (-291) (-168) (-65) (52) - Tnterpst - (n.a.) (. a. ) (-25-5) (-42) (-51) (-55) (-73) (-82) (-92) + 'NorAma I iz,L i-I u i2, f(159) (106) (1.04) (103) (102) (101) (100) (99) (98) 2 Subsidies 1451 568 445 444 403 347 265 187 150 Current (423) (428) (370) (360) (312) (245) (141) (48) ( - ) Capital 3/ (28) (140) (75) (84) (91) (102) (124) (139) (150) 3. Imposto Unico 4/ 152 186 189 183 196 210 225 241 258 B. Capital Receipts 40 89 174 427 417 342 2Ž1f - _ 1, ForeignL Loans 5| - 44 29 184 117 98 162 - 2. Domestic Loans 6/ - 45 90 124 131 100 - - 3. Other 7/ 40 - 55 119 169 144 124 - - C. Capital Expenditure 2-20 2 I5 413 694 704 ,, 635 380 466 1]e Fixed Irnvestimeri>' 1.79 1 82 339 1019 12Q06 1001 .)i 803 800 2. Debt Amortization 37 60 6'4 60 73 82 d i 80 3. Other 8/ 4 1 /3 -389 -562 -420 -42j -504 -414 I/ Assumes a) annual inereases of 10 percent in frcVight t:resf iiO c loe ,) anns ufl oeec. e of about 3 percenrt in. inter- urban passengex traffic; c) annaual inscreases of about 1 percent in suburban pesc.ngjA: t-i.i ; l) selective increases in freight rates yielding an 1.8 percent increase in revenues over and above increases attr-eiutable to volume by 1975; e) a 21 percent increase in interujrban passenger fares over the 1]971-75 period; and f) entry into operation ofl t:he MBR project. 2/ Amount paid by the ; - (Gove:rnmont in comnpensation for free transport of government personnel and freight. 3/ Capital subsidy assutieu co equal depreciatio-fe, 4/ Assumed to increase al: 7 percent annualy after >(3l:/L 5/ Loans already contracted as of ernd 1970 plIs P-10P loan. 6/ Financing already arranged as of end 1970. 7/ Capital support already committed by Central Govei-nment as of end 1970. 8/ Represents the additional net capital required for financinig the inivestments of the RFFSA. Both the investments themselves and sources of financing are to be confirmed by the 1972-74 Fluriannual Investment Budget. Source: RFFSA. Table 10.5: INVESTMENT PROGRAM - DEPARTAMENTO NACIONAL DE PORTOS E VIAS NAVEGAVEIS (DNPVN) (In Cr$ million at 1969 prices) 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 A. Current Receipts 144 224 223 238 214 229 236 254 261 1. Indirect Taxes - - 13 14 13 14 15 16 16 a. Port Utilization Tax (TUP) 2/ - 15 23 26 25 27 28 30 31 b. Port Improvement Tax (TMP) 1/ 85 152 139 - - - - - - c. Dredging Tax 3/ - - - - - - - - - 2. Nontax Revenues 4/ 3 12 7 5 7 7 7 9 9 3. Transfers from Treasury a. Earmarked Taxes (TMP) - - - 162 137 146 151 162 166 b. Discretionary Transfers for current expenses 27 23 24 24 27 32 35 37 39 for capital expenses 29 22 17 7 5 3 - - - B. Current Expenditures 34 31 53 59 63 69 71 69 70 1. Personnel 21 18 24 25 27 32 36 37 38 2, Other Consumption 5/ 13 13 29 34 36 37 35 32 32 C. Current Account Savings 110 193 170 179 151 160 165 185 191 D. Capital Receipts 23 25 24 34 63 62 33 3 - 1. Foreign Loans 1 4 - 8 41 62 33 3 - 2. Domestic Loans 22 21 24 26 22 - - - - E. Capital Expenditures 133 218 194 213 214 222 198 188 191 1. Fixed Investment 95 159 110 167 290 305 163 135 140 2. Other Capital Expenditures 13 10 10 18 27 24 33 31 30 3. Change in Cash Balances 25 49 74 28 -103 -107 2 22 21 1/ 2 percent on all imported merchandise; 0.2 percent coastal exports. 2/ 5 to 10 percent over port tariffs for DNPVN depreciation. 3/ Import and export surtax for dredging. 4/ DNPVN charge on administering several ports. 5/ Includes interest. Sources: Boucinhas & Campos; Coopers & Lybrand. Table 10.6: INVESUMENT PROGRAM - SUPERINTEIDENCIA NACIOIAL DA MARPThA MERCA\ITE (SUNAMAM) (In Cr$ million at 1969 prices) 1968 1969 1970/ 197i M/ 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 A. Current Receipts 230 259 279 296 480 508 518 528 540 1. Merchant Marine Tax 1 134 3 7 v177 T1 197 2. Non tax Revenues 15 22 15 17 19 23 23 23 23 3. Transfers from Treasury a. Earmarked - - - - - - - - - b. Discretionary Transfers for Current Expenses 48 45 33 28 25 20 20 20 20 for Capital Expenses 73 61 92 104 280 300 300 300 300 B, Current Expenditures 58 44 40 36 39 34 35 37 39 1. Consumption 13 1 1 19 19 20 -22 2 2, Subsidies 45 30 25 20 20 15 15 15 i5 C. Current Account Savings 172 215 239 260 441 474 483 491 501 D. Capital Receipts 157 187 160 180 210 210 215 220 225 1. Foreign Loans 7 73 10E T -73 70 70 70 70 2. Domestic Resources 114 129 100 115 135 140 145 150 155 E. Capital Expenditures 329 402 399 440 651 684 698 711 726 1. Fixed Investments 6 1 5 -7 -2 2 2 2 2 2. Financial Investments 362 366 315 352 560 590 600 600 600 a. Grants (Premios) ( 55) ( 85) (100) (120) (160) (190) (200) (200) (200) b. Loans and Participations (307) (281) (215) (232) (400) (400) (400) (400) (400) 3. Amortization of Foreign Loans - 18 50 50 60 60 70 70 70 4. Other Capital Expenditures - 17 29 33 29 32 26 39 54 5. Change in Cash Balances -39 - - - _ _ _ _ - 1/ Changes made in 1970 and 1971 columns on basis respective budgets. Source: Mission estimates. Table 10.7: INVESTMENT PROGRAM - CIVIL AVIATION AUTHORITY (DAC), M1:NISTRY OF AIR (In cr$ million at 1969 prices) 1968 1969 197CL/ 1971J 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 A. Current Receipts 56 91 174 187 291 324 288 306 3214 1. Earmarked Taxes IUCL 56 64 115 115 123 132 141 151 162 T. Aeroportuaria - 27 25 25 27 29 31 34 36 2. Budgetary" Appropriations nea n.a 34 47 141 173 116 121 126 B. Current Expenditures n,a n.a 52 66 68 70 72 74 76 C. Current Account Savings 56 91 122 121 223 255 216 232 248 D. Capbital Receipts - - - 9 77 105 84 78 78 1. Foreign Loans b 97 2, Domestic Loans - - - 9 10 10 10 - - E. Capital Expenditures 56 91 91 130 300 360 300 310 326 1. Fixed Investment 91 91 130 3300 360 72 302 Ts 2. Amortization of Foreign Loans - - - 6 8 8 3, Change in Cash Balances - _ 33 _- - - 1/ 1970 figures based on budget law and an investment total reported by IPEAo 7/ 1971 figures based on budget 1aJ and on projected investment as reported by IPEAo Assumes disbursements of external credits for Galeao, Cumbica and traffic control do not get under way until 1972, 1973 and 1972, respectively. Source: Mission estimates. Table 10.8: INVESTMENT PROGRAM - ELECTRIC POWER (ELETROBRAS & ASSOCIATEi) COMPANIES) (In Cr$ million at 1969 prices) 1968 1969 19701' 197 1--V 1972.1/ 197 3-i 197 2 19752/ 1976 2/ C. Current Account Savings 1729 1940 2187 2466 2707 2973 3174 3573 3976 1. Operating Income 624 1037 1351 1589 1800 2013 2147 2478 2805 Net Income (751) (1203) (1536) (1804) (2051) (2285) (2508) (2824) (3180) -Interest on Foreign Loans (127) (166) (185) (215) (251) (272) (361) (346) (375) 2. Subsidy 69 53 38 22 - - - - - 3. IUEE (Tr. from Tr. OG A/C) 241 264 349 393 441 495 555 623 699 4. Transfers from States 795 586 449 462 466 465 472 472 472 D. Capital Receipts 614 1180 1388 1425 1422 1505 1566 1613 1711 1, Foreign Loans 308 761 766 843 812 812 812 812 812 2. Domestic Loans 306 419 622 582 610 693 754 801 899 E. Capital Expenditures 2343 3120 3575 3891 4129 4478 4740 5186 5687 1. Fixed Investment 2111 2875 2995 3553 3609 3798 4166 4181 4640 2. Amortization of Foreign Loans 152 264 306 315 347 365 403 407 431 3. Other Expenditures 149 215 464 497 539 584 648 691 740 Amortization of Domestic Loans 100 92 287 341 402 490 542 561 561 + Dividends 277 354 484 529 594 671 758 854 962 + Interest on Domestic Loans 76 147 401 595 684 729 748 798 848 - Loans from Eletrobras -157 -167 -452 -634 -749 -840 -872 -924 -958 - Dividends Reinvested -147 -211 -256 -334 -392 -466 -528 -598 -673 4. Inc. in Cash Balance -69 -234 -190 -474 -366 -269 -477 - 93 -124 X/ 1970-74 data based on Eletrobras investment program which assumes: a) 12.6 percent average annual increase in demand; b) 10.5 percent average annual increase in production capacity at average cost (excluding interest) Cr$2100/kw (1969 Cr$); c) external borrowing averages US$200 million per year; and d) compulsory loan is continued after 1973. 2/ 1975-76 projection assumes: a) 11 percent expansion of production capacity during each year; b) 12.2 percent average annual increases in both IUEE and compulsory loan; and c) 12.6 percent average annual increase in operating income. Source: ELETROBRAS. Thble 10).9: flWRSThZ PBOGRAM - TDiLONMlIChTIONS S0 R (EKBRATEL, RCT AND CTB) (In Cr$ million at 1969 prices) 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 C. Current Account Savins 358 508 305 596 635 689 821 966 1142 1. Retained garnings -80 -42 -151 14 161 237 334 45 Imbratel 3 26 35 45 55 67 85 108 132 CTB 139 147 156 315 313 328 388 467 566 ECT -222 -215 -342 -226 -231 -234 -236 -241 -243 2. Transfers from Other Gov. A/C 100 151 180 216 246 270 310 360 410 3. Subsidies 338 399 276 246 252 258 274 22 277 ECT - Current 320 343 210 226 231 234 236 241 243 ECT - Capital 18 56 66 20 21 24 38 31 34 D. Capital Receipts 165 349 * 600 170 143 157 164 184 204 1. Foreign Loans 51 245 100 115 33 31 19 17 17 Embratel 24 115 30 10 - - - - CTB 27 130 67 71 -- - - ECT - - 3 34 33 31 19 17 17. 2. Domestic Loans 44 ^ 369 - CTB 44 ^ 278 - . _ _ _ _ ECT - - 91 - 3. Other - CTB 70 104 131 55 110 126 145 167 187 E. C Expenditures 523 857 905 766 778 846 985 1150 1346 1. Fixed Investment 481 600 762 575 X 680 745 80S 850 Embratel 132 259 200 95 65 70 80 90 100 CTB 312 322 537 430 518 565 620 680 715 ECT 37 19 25 50 50 45 45 35 35 2. Amortization of Foreign Loans 6 21 82 120 87 75 62 60 59 3. Other 16 5 30 23 20 50 152 106 10 4, Change in Cash Balances 20 231 31 48 38 41 26 179 427 Sources: Eubratel, CTB, dCT and mission estimates. Table 10.10: INVESTMENT PROGRAM - EDUCATION PROGRAMS OF MINISTRY AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS (In Cr$ million at 1969 prices) 1968 1/ 1969 J/ 1970 2/ 1971 _/ 1972 2 1973 2/ 1974 3/ 1975 3 1976 3 MINISTRY OF EDUCATION A. Current Receipts 251 269 329 266 289 314 333 353 375 1. Budget Appropriations 251 269 329 266 289 314 333 353 375 B. Current Expenditures 231 249 288 226 233 251 264 277 291 C. Current Account Savings 20 20 41 40 56 63 69 76 84 D. Capital Receipts - - - - - - - - - E. Capital Expenditures 20 20 41 40 56 63 69 76 84 1. Fixed Investment 20 20 18 10 21 23 24 26 29 2. Amortization of Foreign Loans - - 23 30 35 40 45 50 55 LOCAL GOVERNMENTS A. Current Receipts 2607 3007 3315 3706 4009 4335 4708 5111 5550 1. Budget Appropriations 2497 2907 3227 3532 3825 4140 4501 4892 5318 2. Salario Educacao 110 100 88 174 184 195 207 219 232 B. Current Expenditures 2346 2720 2999 3352 3612 3891 4211 4554 4927 C. Current Account Savings 261 287 316 354 397 444 497 557 623 D. Capital Receipts - - - - - - - - - E. Capital Expenditures 261 287 316 354 397 444 497 557 623 1. Fixed Investment 261 287 316 354 397 444 497 557 623 j Based on data provided by the Ministry of Education regarding local government education expenditures and on Central Govern- ment budgets regarding Ministry of Education expenditures. X2 Based on overall education expenditure targets for 1970-73, on the 1970 and 1971 government budgets and on external credits either'already in the pipeline or being negotiated. / Assumes that overalI government expenditures for education increase at 8.5 percent annually in real terms after 1973. On the revenue side salario educacao revenues are assumed to increase at an annual rate of 6 percent (i.e., 3 percent employment increase plus 3 percent wage rate increase). Sources: Ministry of Education and mission estimates. Table 10.11: INVESTMENT PROGRAM - EDUCATION PROGRAMS OF MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AUTARKIES (In Cr$ million at 1969 prices) 1968.1/ 1969.1/ 1970/ 197 7 1 11 1972/ 1973 .2 1974-2J 1975 3 1976 S A. Current Receipts 743 729 667 698 762 831 914 1006 1105 1. IndirOct Taxes 2. Direct Taxes Salario Educacao 110 - - - - - - - - 3. Other Current Revenues a. Transfers from Treasury 743 829 755 872 946 1026 1121 1225 1337 1. Personnel (300) (300) (305) (372) (370) (390) (410) (450) (480) 2. Earmarked ( - ) (100) ( 88) (174) (184) (195) (207) (219) (232) 3. Current (152) (160) (162) (171) (170) (177) (190) (210) (220) 4. Capital (291) (269) (200) (155) (222) (264) (314) (346) (405) b. Transfers to Local Govts. Salario Educacao 110 100 88 174 184 195 207 219 232 B. Current Expenditures 452 460 467 543 540 567 600 660 700 1. Consumption 452 460 467 543. 540 567 600 660 700 C. Current Account Savings 291 269 200 155 222 264 314 346 405 D. Capital Receipts 59 137 109 110 110 110 110 110 110 1. Foreign Loans 59 137 109 110 110 110 110 110 lO E. Capital Expenditures 350 406 309 265 332 374 424 456 515 1. Fixed Investment 350 406 307 263 330 373 423 455 514 2. Financial Investment - - - - - - - - - 3. Amortization Foreign Loans - - - - - 4. Amortization Domestic Loans - - 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1/ Based on respective annual Central Government budgets. 2/ Based on overall education expenditure program for 1970-73. X... Based on the assumption that total Central Government appropriations for education (including the "saiario educacao") increase at an annual rate of 8.5 percent after 1973. Sources: Ministry of Education and mission estimates. Table 10.12: INVESTMENT PROGRAM - HEALTH PROGRAMS OF MINISTRY OF HEALTH (In Cr$ million at 1969 prices) 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 A. Current Receipts n.a n,a 233 207 332 345 327 317 358 1. Budgetary Appropriations 222 200 332 27 7 2. Foreign Loans & Grants 11 7 - - - - - B. Current Expenditures n/a n/a 216 170 267 290 295 285 300 C. Current Account Savings 20 20 17 37 65 55 32 32 - D. Capital Receipts - - - _ 10 10 3 3 7 To Foreign Loans - - - 10 1 3 3 7 E, Capital Expenditures 20 20 17 37 75 65 35 35 65 1. Fixed Investment -70 2-0 17 7 7 7 - 7 7 Source: Mission estimates. Table 10.13: INVESfMENT PROGRAM - HEALTH PROGRAMS OF MINISTRY OF HEALTH AUTARKIES (In Cr$ million at 1969 prices) 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 A. Current Receipts 32 48 43 47 66 73 81 88 96 1. Indirect Taxes - - - - - - - 2. Direct Taxes -- - - - - - - 3. Other Current Revenues Transfers from Treasury 32 48 43 47 66 73 81 88 96 Earmarked ( -) (-) (-) (-) -) (-) (-) (-) (-) Current (30) (30) (31) (37) (5°) (56) (63) (69) (76) Capital ( 2) (18) (12) (10) (16) (17) (18) (19) (20) B. Current Expenditure (30) 30 31 37 5° 56 63 69 76 1. Consumption 0 30 31 37 - 76 -73 -09 7 Health . 28 20 47 52 59 65 71 Water Supply . 3 17 3 4 4 4 5 C. Current Account Savings 2 18 12 10 16 17 18 19 20 D. Capital Receipts 14 16 11 5 5 5 10 10 10 lo Loans from Abroad Health - _ - _ Water Supply 14 16 11 5 5 5 10 10 10 2. Other - -- - - - - - - E. Capital Expenditures 16 34 23 15 21 22 28 29 30 lo Fixed Investment Health - - - - - - - Water Supply 16 34 23 15 21 22 28 29 30 Source: Mission estimates. Table 10.14: INVESTMENT PROGRAM - WATER SUPPLY & AGRICULTURAL PROGRAMS OF MINISTRY OF INTERIOR AUTARKIES 1/ (In Cr$ million at 1969 prices) 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 A. Current Receipts 300 280 294 323 498 496 504 526 538 1. Indirect Taxes - - - - _ - - 2. Direct Taxes - - - - - - - _ _ 3. Other Current Revenues 300 280 294 323 348 346 354 376 388 a. Nontax Revenues 20 20 24 26 27 29 31 33 35 b. Trans. from Treasury 280 260 270 297 321 317 323 343 353 1. Earmarked - - - - - - - 2. Current 80 80 88 95 108 99 99 103 107 3. Capital 3 200 180 182 202 363 368 374 390 396 Agric. Programs (113) (75) (67) (70) (150) (155) (160) (175) (180) Water Supply (85) (98) (108) (125) (205) (205) (205) (205) (205) Other . * (7) (7) (8) (8) (9) (10) (11) B. Current Expenditures 93 92 106 111 117 123 129 135 142 1. Consumption 93 92 106 111 117 123 129 135 142 C. Current Account Savings 207 188 188 212 381 373 375 391 396 D. Capital Receipts 13 19 19 25 28 56 56 57 60 1. Foreign Loans a. Agric. Programs - - 5 8 36 36 37 40 b. Water Supply 3 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 c. Other - 2. Other Capital Receipts 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 E. Capital Expenditure 220 207 207 237 409 429 431 448 456 1. Fixed Investment 2/ 197 192 194 222 392 410 419 425 427 a. Agriculture 90 60 54 60 141 172 184 189 191 b. Water Supply 92 111 123 141 222 222 223 224 225 c. Other 15 21 17 21 29 16 12 12 11 2. Other Capital Expenditure 23 15 13 15 17 19 12 23 29 Includes DNOS, DNOCS, SUDENE, SUDAM, SUDESUC, SUDESF, SUDECO and territories. X Assumes that DNOS, SUDENE and GERAN implement PIN-financed irrigation and sugar industry reorganization programs. Source: Mission estimates. Table 10.15: INVESIMET PROGRAM - WATER SUPPLY AND SEWERAGE PROGRAMS OF LOCAL GOVERNME:NT (In Cr$ million at 1969 prices) 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 A. Current Receipts 53 157 458 454 485 398 422 487 386 10 Budgetary Appropriationry'/ 172 131 7gp 3-9 1422 B. Current Expenditures n .a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a C. Current Account Savings 53 157 458 454 485 398 422 487 386 D. Capital Receipts 24 70 153 226 319 453 378 428 427 1o BN1fH Loans 7-0 15-3 -22 6 319 37 35 772 1427 E. Capital Expenditures 77 227 611 680 804 851 800 915 813 1. Fixed Investments -77 227 31T- 80N 604 Xrf0 951 51-3 1/ This includes transfers from the Federal Government through the Participation Fund and other special funds. Source: Mission estimates. Table 10.16: INVESTMENT PROGRAM - SOCIAL WELFARE INVESTMENTS OF SOCIAL SECURITY INSTITUTES (In Cr$ million at 1969 prices) 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 A. Current Receipts 5972 6728 7372 8757 9846 10779 11711 12643 13576 1. Direct Taxes 4921 5765 6425 7782 8805 9730 10654 11578 12503 INPS 4814 5642 6304 7661 8665 9580 10494 11408 12323 IPASE 107 123 121 121 140 150 160 170 180 2. Other Current Revenues 1051 963 947 975 1041 1049 1057 1065 1073 a. Nontax Revenues INPS 381 374 322 387 400 400 400 400 400 IPASE 30 22 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 b. Transfers from Treasury 640 567 599 562 615 623 631 639 647 B. Current Expenditures 5804 6435 7451 8051 9093 9926 10761 11595 12431 1. Consumption 1965 2232 2604 3019 3392 3736 4082 4428 4773 INPS 1854 2126 2494 2909 3282 3626 3972 4318 4663 IPASE 111 106 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 2. Transfers to Private Sector 3839 4203 4847 5032 5701 6190 6679 7167 7658 INPS 3724 4076 4717 4897 5561 6047 6532 7017 7502 IPASE 115 127 130 135 140 143 147 150 156 C. Current Account Savings 168 293 -79 706 753 853 950 1048 1145 D. Capital Receipts 50 24 53 53 43 46 59 63 67 INPS 17 17 32 32 22 25 28 32 36 IPASE 33 7 21 31 21 21 31 31 31 E. Capital Expenditure 218 317 -26 759 796 899 1009 1111 1212 1. Fixed Investment 175 165 148 278 485 594 682 780 870 INPS 105 108 90 230 465 554 642 730 820 IPASE 70 57 40 30 20 40 40 50 50 2. Financial & Other Investments 56 18 18 18 18 19 21 23 22 3. Change in Cash Balance -13 134 -174 481 290 286 306 308 320 Sources: INPS, IPASE and mission estimates. Table 10.17: INVESTMENT PROGRAM - PETROLEUM AND PETROLEUM PRODUCTS (PETROBRAS) (In Cr$ million at 1969 prices) 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 C. Current Account Savings 1053 1142 1260 1507 1918 2008 2119 2354 1. Retained Profits 811 869 1070 1324 1722 1798 1894 2113 2. Tr. from Federal Govt. (IUCL) 242 273 189 183 196 210 225 241 D. Capital Receipts 54 94 79 201 202 193 177 188 1. Foreign Loans (net) 52 86 33 144 139 124 113 119 2. Domestic Loans (net) 2 8 46 57 63 69 64 68 E. Capital Expenditures 1107 1236 1339 1708 2120 2201 2296 2542 1. Fixed Investments 751 828 1243 1582 1772 1858 1900 2014 2. Other Expenditures 260 80 265 278 306 352 404 464 3. Purchase of ORTNs - 257 -33 - - - - - 4. Change in Cash Balances 96 71 136 -152 43 -9 -8 64 Source: PETROBRAS. Table 10.18: INVESTMENT PROGRAM - COMPANHIA VALE DO RIO DOCE (CVRD) (In millions 1969 Cr$; Cr$4.06 (1969) = US$1.00) 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 C. Current Account Savings 161 277 376 533 613 850 1047 1152 1267 1. Operating Profits 161 277 376 533 613 850 1047 1152 1267 D. Capital Receipts 71 75 166 484 310 232 204 131 118 1. Foreign Loans 36 59 127 366 223 227 197 121 108 2. Domestic Loans 17 5 37 105 73 - - - - 3. Other 18 11 2 13 14 5 7 10 10 E. Capital Expenditures 232 352 542 1017 923 1082 1251 1283 1385 1. Fixed Investment J/ 180 195 361 829 670 522 321 n.a. n.a. Mining (11) (5) (71) (281) (185) (117) n.a. Railway (127) (127) (199) (285) (176) (220) n.a. Port (13) (9) (41) (149) (166) (71) n.a. Pelletizing (29) (54) (24) (75) (112) (77) n.a. Other ( - ) ( - ) (26) (39) (32) (37) (37) 2. Investment through Subsidiaries n.a. n.a. 73 93 160 404 687 n.a. n.a. Shipping (Docenave) (37) (31) (32) (39) (32) Forestation (Espirito Santo) 2/ (22) (30) (43) (57) (99) (137) (129) Pulp Plant (Espirito Santo) g' ( - ) (2) (29) (109) (162) (9) ( - Mining (Amazonia Mineracao) _4/ (12) (18) (20) (102) (122) (122) (122) Mineral Research ( ) (8) (16) (16) (8) Diversification Project (2) (4) (20) (81) (264) 3. Amortization 19 22 39 35 33 57 80 70 60 4. Other Investments 40 92 69 57 70 125 163 150 150 5. Change in Cash Balance - - - 3 -10 -31 - - - CVRD's direct fixed investment program for the 1970-73 period is designed to: a) increase ore mining capacity from 20 to 48 million t o ns annually (at a total cost of US$161.1 million, of which the import compoient equals US$70.6 million); b) increase the capacity of the railway carrying ore from the mine to Tuberao port from 27 to 70 million tons annually (at a total cost of US$216.7 million of which the import component is US$74.7 million); c) increase port ore loading capacity from 35 to 70 million tons (at a total cost of US$105.2 million of which the import component is US$40.5 million);and d) increase pelletization plant capacity from 2 to 8 million tons annually (at a total cost of US$71.0 million of which the import component is US$38.4 million). External financing totalling US$178.0 million in disbursements over the 1970-73 period will be provided by: BID (US$10.9 million pipeline); Eximbank USA (US$15.8 million pipeline, US$70.0 million new); KfW (US$7.05 million pipeline, US$9.3 million new); Mitsui (US$12.6 million pipeline, US$3.2 million new); Exim-Japan (US$15.0 million new); Voest (US$19.0 million new); and others. Ore sales are expected to increase from 24.6 million tons in 1970 (of which 23.5 million exported) to 55.4 million tons in 1974 (of which 53.0 million exported). By 1976 ore sales can be expected to approximate 67 million tons as continued investment in the Conceicao ore concentrating plaxt increases total ore production capacity (including pelLets) to about 68 million tons. - -This-pr-ojec ti- designed to producF-tmiition dubic meters (To;uiidwood equivalent) of wood chips annually by 1980 for export to Japan. The project will involve the expenditure of approximately US$127 million (1969 dollars) by 1976 and an additional US$67 million by 1980. It is assumed that during the 1971-76 period CVRD will finance only about US$20 million of total project costs out of its own resources and that the remainder will be financed by a foreign partner in this joint venture and/or by official external lenders or suppliers. In addition to these direct project costs, the cost of social infrastructure attributable to the accommoda- tion of the required labor force is estimated at US$106 million. These expenditures are excluded from this table. * This project involves the construction of a 255,000 ton annual capacity (700 tons per day) pulp mill in Espirito Santo at a total cost of US$77 million of which the CVRD would finance US$24.6 million. It is intended that the project be completed by 1975. 4/ This project involves the exploitation of the extensive Serra de Carajas iron ore reserve located in the state of Para. The project will be a joint Brazilian (CVRD) - American venture. Total project cost is estimated at US$100 million. Some production is to commence in 1977 although the project will not be complete by then. The investments shown for 1971-76 represent an estimate of the CVRD's financial contribution to the project during these years. Sources: Companhia Vale do Rio Doce and mission estimates (1975-76). Table 10.19: INVESTMENT PROGRAM - STEEL SECTOR (GOVERNMENT ENTERPRISES) -I (In millions 1969 Cr$: Cr$4.06 (1969) = US$1.00) 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 C. Current Account Savings 21 61 146 251 326 381 434 566 834 915 994 1. CSN 3/ 85 118 164 227 242 263 247 275 346 390 2. COSIPA 4/ -25 8 16 -3 43 77 70 181 176 201 3. USIMINAS / 1 20 71 102 96 94 249 378 393 403 D. Capital Receipts 211 211 531 447 827 738 923 617 589 784 1. Foreign Loans 12 15 252 224 594 460 608 355 379 563 CSN (104) (43) (71) (119) (367) (181) (208) (392) COSIPA (148) (104) (109) (153) (196) (141) (171) (171) USIMINAS ( - ) (77) (414) (188) (45) (33) ( - ) ( - 2. Internal Loans 118 115 155 138 168 211 263 202 210 221 CSN COSIPA (116) (99) (168) (211) (263) (202) (210) (221) USIMINAS (39) (39) (_) ( _ 3. Other 81 81 124 85 65 67 52 60 - - CSN (29) ( - ) ( - ) ( - ) ( - )(-) (-) (-) COSIPA (15) (34) (32) (46) (42) (60) ( - ) ( ) USIMINAS (80) (51) (33) (21) (10) (-) (-) (-) E. Capital Expenditures 272 357 782 773 1208 1172 1489 1451 1504 1778 1. Fixed Investment 49 57 448 570 1025 911 1154 673 859 1161 CSN (196) (208) (229) (272) (671) (319) (467) (761) COSIPA (245) (235) (284) (371) (466) (351) (389) (400) USIMINAS (7) (127) (512) (268) (17) (3) (3) ( - 2. Loan Amortization 179 187 162 153 144 133 160 208 326 355 CSN (36) (36) (36) (34) (29) (39) (60) (81) COSIPA (25) (31) (29) (35) (57) (86) (168) (183) USIMINAS (101) (86) (79) (64) (74) (83) (98) (91) 3. Other Investment (USIMINAS) - - 6 6 7 7 11 15 15 15 4. Working Balances 74 113 165 45 32 124 161 555 304 245 CSN (64) (26) (48) (77) (-86) (98) (28) (-60) COSIPA (24) (-32) (39) (82) (45) (147) (-1) (10) USIMINAS (77) (51) (-55) (-35) (202) (310) (277) (295) j The government enterprises covered by this table are: Companhia Siderurgica Nacional (CSN); Companhia Siderurgica de Sao Paulo (COSIPA); and Usinas Siderurgicas de Minas Gerais (USIMINAS). ' Current accounit savings are defined as gross profit on sales minus financial charges and any other general expenses, minus income tax, minus nonreinvested dividends, minus other distribution such as employee bonuses. The projection assumes that the companies are allowed to raise their prices proportionately with increases in the internal price level. On thie other hand, the projectioo also assumes that the exchange rate is adjusted proportionately with internal inflation as well. Since the policy of the Government is to adjust the exchange rate by percentage equal to internal minus external inflation rates, this assumption overstates the real value of external debt service and provides some offsetting margin in the event that steel prices are not permitted to rise proportionately with internal inflation. 3/ Incorporates expansion presently underway wbiich will increase production capacity from the present 1.5 million tons per year to 1.7 million tons by 1973 as well as a new, two-phase expansion program designed to increase capacity to 2.5 million tons by 1977 and thience to 4.0 million tons by 1981. 4/ Incorporates a new, two-phased expansion piLuyaII designed Lo increase p-oduccLi7. -r: :ty Flto! - -isting level of 1.0 million tons per year to 2.0 million tons by 1977 and thence to 3.25 million tons by 1981. 5 Incorporates a new expansion program designed to increase production capacity irom the present 0.8 million tons per year to 2.4 million tons per year by 1975. Sources: CONSIDER, CSN, COSIPA and USIMINAS. Table 10.20: INVESTMENT PROGRAM - AGRICULTURAL SECTOR INVESTMS BY MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE (In Cr$ million at 1969 prices) 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 A. Current Receipts 154 165 173 183 214 233 248 273 309 1. Budget Appropriations 183 190 198 287 255 285 317 358 401 2. - Transfers to other Agencies 29 25 25 104 41 52 69 85 92 B. Current Expenditures 104 105 121 135 140 150 160 176 190 C. Current Account Savings 50 60 52 48 74 83 88 97 9119 D. Capital Receipts 17 10 15 18 35 56 100 132 128 1. Foreign Loans 17 10 15 18 35 56 100 132 128 E. Capital Expenditures, 67 70 67 66 109 139 188 229 247 1. Fixed Investment 65 68 64 62 106 135 184 224 242 2. Amortization of Foreign Loans 2 2 3 4 3 4 4 5 5 Source: Mission estimates. Table 10.21: INVESTMENT PROGRAM - AGRICULTURAL SECTOR INVESTMENT BY MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AUTARKIES J/ (In Cr$ million at 1969 prices) 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 A. Current Receipts 269 222 195 215 443 463 474 491 _J. 1. Indirect Taxes - - - - - - - - 2. Direct Taxes 86 77 72 74 76 78 80 83 86 INDA 65 34 29 30 30 31 31 32 32 IBRA 21 40 41 41 43 44 45 47 49 Others - 3 2 3 3 3 4 4 5 3. Other Current Receipts 183 145 123 141 167 185 194 208 226 Nontax Revenues 71 74 50 53 56 58 60 61 62 Transfers from Treasury 124 90 96 112 332 350 357 373 390 Earmarked (H) (-) (8) (8) (8) (8) (8) (8) (8) Current (97) (82) (74) (84) (91) (95) (99) (105) (111) Capital S/ (27) (8) (14) (20) (233) (247) (250) (260) (271) - Trans. to other Agencies 12 19 23 24 21 23 23 26 26 B. Current Expenditures 212 185 159 169 180 189 198 208 220 1. Consumption 212 185 159 169 180 189 198 208 220 C. Current Account Savings 57 37 36 46 263 274 276 283 292 D. Capital Receipts 14 13 23 41 89 114 113 112 119 1. Foreign Loans - - 4 17 61 82 78 77 83 2. Domestic Loans - - - 5 8 10 10 10 3. Other Capital Receipts 14 13 19 24 23 24 25 25 26 E. Capital Expenditures 71 50 59 87 352 388 389 395 411 1. Fixed Investment 2/ 25 19 27 47 183 210 211 211 218 2. Financial Investment 2 32 23 26 35 163 172 172 172 182 3. Amortization Foreign Loans - - - - - - - 2 5 4. Amortization Domestic Loans 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 5. Other Expenditures 13 7 5 4 5 5 4 4 4 Includes INCRA, IBDF, SUDEPE, SUNAB, CFP and GETSOP. j Assumes INCRA implements the bulk of the PIN-financed colonization program. Source: Mission estimates.