THE COST OF NOT INVESTING IN GIRLS CHILD MARRIAGE, EARLY CHILDBEARING, LOW EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT FOR GIRLS, AND THEIR IMPACTS IN UGANDA: AN UPDATE QUENTIN WODON, CHATA MALE, ADENIKE ONAGORUWA, ABOUDRAHYME SAVADOGO, AND ALI YEDAN AUGUST 2019 THE COST OF NOT INVESTING IN GIRLS CHILD MARRIAGE, EARLY CHILDBEARING, LOW EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT FOR GIRLS, AND THEIR IMPACTS IN UGANDA: AN UPDATE QUENTIN WODON, CHATA MALE, ADENIKE ONAGORUWA, ABOUDRAHYME SAVADOGO, AND ALI YEDAN BACKGROUND TO THIS SERIES Despite substantial progress over the last two decades, partner violence and lack of decision-making ability girls still have on average lower levels of educational within the household. Fundamentally, girls marrying, attainment than boys at the secondary level in many having children, or dropping out of school early are countries. This is in part because many girls are married disempowered in ways that deprive them of their basic or have children before the age of 18, often before they rights. This in turn affects their children. For example, may be physically and emotionally ready to become wives children of young mothers often face higher risks of dying and mothers. Educating girls, ending child marriage, and by age five, being malnourished, and doing poorly preventing early childbearing is essential for girls to have in school. agency, not only as future wives and mothers, but also beyond those roles. It is also essential for countries to Overall, the economic and social costs of child marriage, reach their full development potential. early childbearing, and low educational attainment for girls are large. This note is part of a series that discusses trends Girls’ educational attainment, child marriage, and early in girls’ education, child marriage, and early childbearing, childbearing are closely linked. Ending child marriage their impacts on a wide range of development outcomes, and early childbearing would improve girls’ educational and the policies and programs that could improve attainment. Conversely, improving girls’ educational opportunities for adolescent girls. The analysis builds on attainment would help reduce child marriage and early work at the World Bank on the cost of not investing in childbearing. In addition, low educational attainment, girls, and on a previous global study on the economic child marriage, and early childbearing affect girls’ life impacts of child marriage conducted by the World Bank trajectories in many other ways. Girls marrying or in partnership with the International Center for Research dropping out of school early are more likely to experience on Women. The conceptual framework for the analysis is poor health, have more children over their lifetime, and provided in appendix. earn less in adulthood. This makes it more likely that their household will live in poverty. Other risks include intimate 1 | THE COST OF NOT INVESTING IN GIRLS CHILD MARRIAGE, EARLY CHILDBEARING, LOW EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT FOR GIRLS, AND THEIR IMPACTS IN UGANDA : AN UPDATE | AUGUST 2019 KEY MESSAGES \\ As noted in the World Bank report on which this brief is based, ending child marriage today could generate To catalyze attention and investments in Uganda towards by 2030 up to US$2.7 billion in annual benefits (in improving girls’ education, ending child marriage, and purchasing power parity terms) simply from lower preventing early childbearing, this note documents trends population growth and a reduction in rates of under- over time in these issues and their impacts on other five mortality and stunting for young children. In development outcomes. Economic costs associated with addition, women’s earnings today would be higher if selected impacts are also estimated. Finally, policies and they had been able to avoid marrying early. This loss in programs that could improve outcomes for adolescent girls earnings is estimated at more than US$ 500 million. are discussed. The note updates with newly released data These estimates are not meant to be precise, but they for 2016 findings that were prepared for the 10th World give an order of magnitude of costs and benefits. Bank Economic Update for Uganda. It is based on a more detailed background study. The main findings are as follows: \\ Other benefits from lower population growth would include budget savings for the government for the \\ Between 2011 and 2016, some progress has been provision of basic services. These savings could be achieved towards reducing child marriage and invested to improve the quality of the services provided. early childbearing, and improving educational attainment for girls. For example, in the case of \\ To delay the age at first marriage and childbearing, child marriage, there was a reduction in prevalence adequate laws are a first step, but interventions of four percentage points between 2011 and 2016. are also needed. Interventions that alleviate For early childbearing, the reduction was at 2.6 economic constraints to girls’ education tend to percentage points. Gains in educational attainment be the most proven. But there is also a role for are of a similar order of magnitude. This rate of interventions expanding economic opportunities progress is too small to achieve the targets set forth for adolescent girls who dropped out of school and under the Sustainable Development Goals. are not likely to be able to go back to school. \\ According to the 2016 Demographic and Health \\ Imparting adolescent girls with life skills and Survey (DHS), less than 60 percent of girls aged reproductive health knowledge is also essential, 15-18 completed their primary education, and only whether girls are in school or out of school. This one in four girls aged 18-21 completed their secondary can be done among others through safe space clubs education. This is in part because of high rates of child that have proven effective for such purposes. marriage (32.5 percent among girls aged 18-22) and early childbearing (26.0 percent). Girls from rural \\ To improve educational attainment for girls, basic areas and disadvantaged socio-economic backgrounds conditions also must be met. At the secondary level, tend to have worse outcomes in all these areas. there is a need to build schools closer to where children (boys or girls) live. As an alternative, adequate modes \\ Child marriage, early childbearing, and low educational of transportation to schools must be provided, or attainment for girls have a wide range of negative communities could identify responsible members to impacts not only on the girls themselves, but also accompany girls to school and back and girls could be on their children, their families, and society at large. trained on the benefits of walking in groups. Providing Estimates of many of these impacts have been updated separate water, sanitation and hygiene facilities for for this note using the 2016 DHS, and findings are girls is also important, as is the need to reduce the broadly similar to those obtained with the 2011 DHS. risk of violence and sexual harassment in school. \\ Some of the impacts with the largest economic costs \\ Finally, for the broader challenge of gender- relate to fertility and population growth, women’s based violence and inequality, community-based earnings, and the health of children born of young interventions to work with men, women, leaders mothers. Other impacts range from losses in women’s and service providers can also be beneficial. agency to higher risks of intimate partner violence. AUGUST 2019 | THE COST OF NOT INVESTING IN GIRLS CHILD MARRIAGE, EARLY CHILDBEARING, LOW EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT FOR GIRLS, | 2 AND THEIR IMPACTS IN UGANDA : AN UPDATE INTRODUCTION The Government of Uganda has adopted a national The proportions of girls marrying or having children strategy to end child marriage and teenage pregnancies. before the age of 18 have been declining slowly in Uganda Improving girls’ education is also a priority of the according to data from the latest publicly available government. Unfortunately, the cultural, economic, and Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) for 2016. Using social conditions that have historically contributed to the latest data, this note updates findings initially prepared child marriage, early childbearing, and low educational for the 10th Uganda economic update. While progress is attainment for girls remain strong (see Box 1 on social encouraging, almost one third of girls still marry as children, norms). More needs to be done to accelerate progress. and more than one in four girls have their first child before To inspire greater investments in adolescent girls, this note turning 18. Similarly, despite substantial efforts to improve analyses the economic and social impacts of these issues educational attainment, only one in four girls completes in Uganda. The note also suggests potential options for lower secondary school, and an even smaller proportion investments. completes upper secondary school. BOX 1: SOCIAL NORMS, VOICE, AND AGENCY In 2014, the World Bank released a study on Voice and Agency: Empowering Women and Girls for Shared Prosperity (Kulgman et al., 2014). The report documents constraints facing women and girls worldwide, from high levels of gender- based violence to social norms and laws that curtail their decision-making in multiple areas such as working, owning property, working, or even making simple decisions within the household. Some of the findings in that report are similar to those documented here in terms of the negative impacts of low educational attainment for girls, child marriage, and early childbearing. The Voice and Agency report notes that constraints faced by women and girls stem from their limited endowments (health, education, and assets) and economic opportunities. In addition, social norms about gender roles are also limiting. For example, even when women work outside of the home, they typically remain responsible for housework and child care. Social norms often restrict women’s mobility and ability to network. They tend to be under-represented in politics and government. Unequal power relationships lead among others to gender-based violence, and legal discrimination remains pervasive, as is the case when women need their husband’s consent to work. Lack of protection and discrimination under the law may interact with social norms interact, as is the case when women have limited land rights. While this report does not discuss the issues of the drivers of low educational attainment for girls, child marriage, and early childbearing in detail, there is no doubt that social norms play an important role. Social norms tend to be reinforced by the community where girls live, including by teachers, schools, and the education system. This is recognized, among others, by the African union campaign to end child marriage. Even if child marriage were ended, for example if girls are kept in school and married immediately at age 18 and have children soon after that, women’s voice and agency would still be curtailed. This is why beyond the necessity to end child marriage, social norms must be tackled. 3 | THE COST OF NOT INVESTING IN GIRLS CHILD MARRIAGE, EARLY CHILDBEARING, LOW EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT FOR GIRLS, AND THEIR IMPACTS IN UGANDA : AN UPDATE | AUGUST 2019 who complete their primary, lower secondary, and upper TRENDS IN CHILD secondary education respectively. The age groups are defined to allow girls a few more years beyond the normal MARRIAGE, EARLY age to complete a level, to account for the possibility of late entry and/or repetition. Due at least in part to the success CHILDBEARING of the Education for All initiative, significant progress has been made at the primary level over the last three decades. AND EDUCATIONAL Yet progress between 2011 and 2016 is limited, with a gain in completion rates for girls aged 15-18 of only 2.9 ATTAINMENT FOR GIRLS percentage points. Table 1 provides estimates of educational attainment for Between 2011 and 2016, gains have also been achieved girls, child marriage (marrying before the age of 18), and towards higher completion rates for lower and upper early childbearing (having a first child before the age of 18) secondary education, but the gains are too small to achieve together with comparisons with East and Southern African the Sustainable Development Goals. Furthermore, especially countries based on the latest survey for each country. at the secondary level, girls still lag behind boys in terms of Educational attainment is determined in terms of three completion rates. measures, based on the proportions of girls of various ages Table 1: Completion Rates for Girls by Education Level and Prevalence of Child Marriage and Early Childbearing by Age Group, Last Two DHS Surveys and Regional Averages (%) Primary Completed 15-18 19-22 23-30 31-40 41-49 East & Southern 64.4 65.2 55.9 48.2 42.9 Uganda 2011 55.8 66.9 57.4 39.3 35.3 Uganda 2016 58.7 73.8 68.4 46.1 38.0 Lower Secondary Completed Upper Secondary Completed (standardized at primary + 3 years) (standardized at primary + 6 years) 18-20 21-24 25-30 31-40 41-49 21-24 25-30 31-40 41-49 East & Southern 28.8 32.7 25.6 19.5 15.8 18.7 15.6 11.4 8.6 Uganda 2011 20.4 26.4 20.5 12.4 8.9 12.0 10.1 6.9 4.4 Uganda 2016 24.7 34.8 30.1 17.8 12.2 14.7 15.4 9.8 6.2 Child Marriage Early Childbearing 18-22 23-30 31-40 41-49 18-22 23-30 31-40 41-49 East & Southern 28.1 32.3 33.2 35.7 20.4 24.2 24.2 24.1 Uganda 2011 36.5 46.3 53.3 52.8 28.6 39.2 42.6 40.4 Uganda 2016 32.5 36.6 45.5 46.5 26.0 31.8 37.3 35.6 Source: Authors. Notes: The regional average is not weighted by country populations. The fact that in some cases educational attainment estimates for the second age group are higher than for the first reflects delays in entering primary school as well as high repetition rates when in school. The analysis in this note is updated using the 2016 DHS from previous work using the 2011 DHS. Apart from new estimates of child marriage, early childbearing, and educational attainment for girls provided in Table 1, estimates of impacts have been updated for the following areas: (i) relationships between child marriage and early childbearing; (ii) fertility; (iii) contraceptive use; (iv) typology of adolescent girls by schooling and marriage status; (v) under-five mortality; (vi) under-five stunting; (vii) decision-making ability, including specifically for healthcare; and (viii) birth registration. In most cases, estimates obtained with the 2016 DHS are similar to those obtained with the 2011 DHS. AUGUST 2019 | THE COST OF NOT INVESTING IN GIRLS CHILD MARRIAGE, EARLY CHILDBEARING, LOW EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT FOR GIRLS, | 4 AND THEIR IMPACTS IN UGANDA : AN UPDATE RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN CHILD MARRIAGE, EARLY CHILDBEARING, AND We are faced with long distances to primary schools. Girls on their GIRLS’ EDUCATION way to school meet men who entice our daughters with money The issues of child marriage, early childbearing, and low educational attainment for girls are closely related. for sex. Later some get pregnant They all affect each other. In Uganda, child marriage is and drop out of school. Also, we likely the cause of more than half of all instances of early have no vocational school that childbearing. In some cases, early childbearing may lead to will train our girls after P7 and child marriage, but this is probably less likely. In addition, the causality between child marriage and early childbearing S4, so we see it as a waste of on the one hand, and girls’ educational attainment on resources to educate a girl. the other hand, goes both ways. Child marriage and early childbearing have a negative effect on educational attainment. Conversely, keeping girls in schools reduces the risks of child marriage and early childbearing. A It is worth noting that achieving universal secondary summary of these relationships is provided in Table 2. completion for girls could dramatically reduce the prevalence of child marriage and early childbearing. On the other hand, These mutual relationships are the reason why incentives for while ending child marriage and early childbearing would girls to remain in school or go back to school if they dropped help improve girls’ educational attainment, this would not be out appear to be among the most effective interventions to sufficient by itself to ensure universal secondary completion. delay the age at first marriage and prevent early childbearing. Table 2: Relationships between Child Marriage, Early Childbearing, and Girls’ Educational Attainment Relationship between child marriage and early childbearing Child marriage is likely the cause of more than half of girls having children before the age of 18 Child marriage is likely the cause of more than half of births of children from mothers younger than 18 Ending child marriage could reduce early childbearing for girls and early childbirths for children by half Impacts of child marriage and early childbearing on girls’ educational attainment Early pregnancies and marriages are major reasons for dropping out of school Child marriage reduces the likelihood of completing secondary school by 12 to 23 percentage points Once a girl is married, statistics suggest that it is very difficult for her to remain in school, whatever her age Child marriage affects the education of the children of girls marrying early at least indirectly Impacts of girls’ educational attainment on child marriage and early childbearing Each year of secondary education leads to a reduction in the likelihood of marrying as a child of seven points Each year of secondary education leads to a reduction in the likelihood of early childbearing of seven points Note: Most estimates based on 2016 DHS, some based on 2011 DHS. 5 | THE COST OF NOT INVESTING IN GIRLS CHILD MARRIAGE, EARLY CHILDBEARING, LOW EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT FOR GIRLS, AND THEIR IMPACTS IN UGANDA : AN UPDATE | AUGUST 2019 IMPACTS ON OTHER Child marriage, early childbearing, and girls’ education have large impacts on how many children women have DEVELOPMENT in their lifetime and on population growth. Women who marry earlier are likely to begin childbearing earlier and OUTCOMES have more children over their lifetime. Depending on the age at marriage, child marriage increases by 17 percent FERTILITY AND POPULATION GROWTH to 29 percent the number of children women have over their lifetime (total fertility). Ending child marriage could reduce total fertility by 9 percent nationally. Higher Susan’s mother died. With one educational attainment leads to even larger reductions in sister and four brothers, she lives total fertility. For example, achieving universal secondary with her father. She dropped education could reduce fertility rates by 27 percent. While ending child marriage would not necessarily affect the use out of school became pregnant. of modern contraceptives in a substantial way, improving She works as a casual laborer in educational attainment for girls would. Finally, simulations people’s gardens. Her job is much using demographic projection models suggest that ending tougher than school, she said, but child marriage and early childbearing could reduce annual rates of population growth by 0.17 percentage point. she explained that she could not Substantial reductions would also probably come from go back to school any more. “I better educational attainment for girls, but this effect has just want to take care of my young not been computed. Table 3 summarizes the findings. siblings and see them through primary school, and if possible up to secondary school”, she said. Table 3: Impacts on Fertility and Population Growth Impacts of child marriage and early childbearing Impacts of girls’ educational attainment Depending on the age at marriage, child marriage increases total Partial/completed secondary education may reduce fertility rates by fertility for women by 17% to 29% 17% and 28% respectively Ending child marriage could reduce the national rate of total fertility Achieving universal secondary education could reduce fertility rates by 9% by 27% Marrying as a child does not have a substantial impact on modern Partial/completed secondary education may increase contraceptive contraceptive use use of 6 and 13 percentage points Ending child marriage would not affect national use of modern Achieving universal secondary education may increase contraceptive contraceptives substantially use by 29% from the base value Ending child marriage and early childbearing could reduce population Achieving universal secondary education would likely lead to an even growth by 0.17 percentage point larger reduction in population growth Note: All estimates based on 2016 DHS except impact on population growth based on simulation tools. AUGUST 2019 | THE COST OF NOT INVESTING IN GIRLS CHILD MARRIAGE, EARLY CHILDBEARING, LOW EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT FOR GIRLS, | 6 AND THEIR IMPACTS IN UGANDA : AN UPDATE HEALTH, NUTRITION AND VIOLENCE stunting that could result from preventing early childbearing are smaller because only a relatively small share of children Early childbearing can impact the health of both girls and are born of mothers younger than 18 at the time of birth. Still, their children. For the girls, their physical immaturity may many children would be affected. In addition, the impact of increase the likelihood of complications during pregnancy child marriage on intimate partner violence is also statistically and childbirth, resulting in higher risks of maternal mortality significant in Uganda, and large with the 2011 DHS but and morbidity, although those risks are not measured in this smaller with the 2016 survey. For most measures, in Uganda study. Early childbearing may also affect the health of young the impacts of the educational attainment for girls tend to be children. In Uganda, children born of mothers younger than lower than those of child marriage and early childbearing. Table 18 have substantially higher risks of dying by age five and 4 summarizes the main findings. being stunted. The reductions in under-five mortality and Table 4: Impacts on Health, Nutrition, and Violence Impacts of child marriage and early childbearing Impacts of girls’ educational attainment Being born of a mother younger than 18 increases the risk of under- Educational attainment of the mother does not affect the risk of five mortality by 2.4 percentage points under-five mortality up to higher education Ending all early childbirths would reduce under-five mortality by 0.17 Universal primary or secondary education may not lead to a national points or 3.5% nationally decline in under-five mortality Being born of a young mother did not affect under-five stunting in Educational attainment of the mother does not affect the risk of 2016 but there was an impact in 2011 under-five stunting up to higher education Based on 2011 data, ending all early childbirths could reduce under- Universal primary or secondary education may not lead to a national five stunting by one point nationally decline in under-five stunting Child marriage had a large impact on intimate partner violence in 2011, Educational attainment for women does not reduce statistically the accounting for 20% of violence risk of intimate partner violence Note: All estimates based on 2016 DHS except intimate partner violence (for 2011) and stunting (for both years). WORK, EARNINGS, AND POVERTY lead to an increase in the population’s overall earnings of one percent. Through their impact on both total fertility and Ending child marriage could lead to a small increase in educational attainment for girls, ending child marriage and labor force participation (LFP) through its impacts on girls’ early childbearing would also have positive effects on welfare educational attainment and total fertility. In contrast, the and poverty. Finally, the impacts on earnings and thereby impact of ending child marriage on earnings for women in poverty of universal primary or secondary education could be adulthood would be large. Women who married early could even larger. For example, universal primary education could have benefited from an increase in earnings of 15 percent if raise earnings nationally by 18 percent, and the impact for they had married later, mostly because of the impact of child universal secondary education for girls would be even larger. marriage on educational attainment. Nationally, this could Table 5 summarizes the estimated impacts. Table 5: Impacts on Work, Earnings, and Poverty Impacts of child marriage and early childbearing Impacts of girls’ educational attainment Ending child marriage could lead to a small increase in LFP indirectly Universal primary and secondary education could increase LFP by one through its impact on education and five points, respectively Ending child marriage could increase earnings in adulthood for women Higher educational attainment for girls is associated with substantial marrying early by 15% increases in earnings in adulthood Ending child marriage could increase the population’s earnings and Universal primary education could raise earnings by 18%. The impact productivity nationally by one percent for secondary would be larger Ending child marriage could have large positive effects on welfare and Universal primary or secondary education could have large positive reduce poverty effects on welfare and reduce poverty Note: Estimates based on 2011 DHS and UNHS data for earnings – not updated with 2016 DHS. 7 | THE COST OF NOT INVESTING IN GIRLS CHILD MARRIAGE, EARLY CHILDBEARING, LOW EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT FOR GIRLS, AND THEIR IMPACTS IN UGANDA : AN UPDATE | AUGUST 2019 AGENCY AND OTHER IMPACTS these indicators of women’s agency are not always statistically significant or tend to be limited. However, because child Agency is complex, and only a few partial indicators of agency marriage as well as early childbearing reduce educational are considered in this note. The focus is on women’s decision- attainment for girls, they may have negative impacts on making ability within the household, including their ability to agency through education. Indeed, for most indicators, the seek care, as well as other aspects such as the likelihood of land impact of girls’ educational attainment is often statistically ownership, knowledge of HIV/AIDS, and birth registration significant at the secondary level or in some cases for higher for young children. The direct impacts of child marriage on education. Table 6 summarizes the estimated impacts. Table 6: Impacts on Decision-making, Agency, and Other Areas Impacts of child marriage and early childbearing Impacts of girls’ educational attainment When statistically significant, the impact of child marriage on Universal secondary education could increase women’s decision- decision-making ability tends to be small making ability by 11 percent Child marriage does not affect women’s ability to seek care directly, The impact of educational attainment on women’s ability to seek care but it matters through education is substantial for higher education Child marriage is associated with a higher likelihood of land ownership Educational attainment for women is associated with a higher (two percentage points) for women likelihood of land ownership for women Child marriage is not associated with a reduction in adulthood in Universal secondary education could increase women’s knowledge of women’s knowledge of HIV/AIDS HIV/AIDS by two percent Early childbearing is associated with a reduction of five points in birth Educational attainment for women is mostly not associated with higher registration rates for young children birth registration rates Note: All estimates based on 2016 DHS except land ownership based on 2011 DHS. SUMMARY OF THE IMPACTS For all indicators except birth Overall, the negative impacts of child marriage, early registrations, either child childbearing, and low educational attainment for girls are large. Table 7 summarizes the estimates. First, the mutual marriage/early childbearing relationships between child marriage, early childbearing, or secondary education and low educational attainment for girls are strong. Second, completion have a statistically all three issues tend, in turn, to have negative impacts significant impact. This shows individually or collectively on a wide range of other outcomes. For all outcomes, either child marriage/early childbearing or how pervasive and widespread secondary education completion have a statistically significant the impacts of a lack of impact. Clearly, the negative effects of child marriage/early opportunities for girls are. childbearing and educational attainment for girls are pervasive and widespread. AUGUST 2019 | THE COST OF NOT INVESTING IN GIRLS CHILD MARRIAGE, EARLY CHILDBEARING, LOW EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT FOR GIRLS, | 8 AND THEIR IMPACTS IN UGANDA : AN UPDATE Table 7: Summary of Statistically Significant Estimated Impacts by Domain Child marriage Secondary education Either one Domains and Indicators or early childbearing completion of the two Mutual relationships Child marriage/ Early childbearing - Yes Yes Educational attainment Yes - Yes Fertility and population growth Fertility Yes Yes Yes Population growth Yes Yes Yes Modern contraceptive use No Yes Yes Health and nutrition Under-five mortality Yes No Yes Under-five stunting Mixed No Yes Labor force participation No Yes Yes Demand for healthcare No Yes Yes Work and productivity Intimate partner violence Yes No Yes Women’s earnings Yes Yes Yes Household welfare Yes Yes Yes Women’s agency Decision-making ability Mixed Yes Yes Land ownership Yes Yes Yes Knowledge of HIV/AIDS No Yes Yes Birth registration Yes Mostly No Yes Note: Based on 2016 data when estimates were updated with the 2016 DHS, except mention “mixed” when effects were not statistically significant with the 2016 DHS and statistically significant with the 2011 DHS. ECONOMIC COSTS AND The economic benefit from BENEFITS: THE CASE OF ending child marriage related CHILD MARRIAGE to welfare gains from lower population growth is large. This While providing a monetary valuation of all the costs benefit could reach $2.4 billion associated with child marriage, early childbearing, and a lack (in purchasing power parity) by of educational attainment for girls is not feasible, costs for 2030. some of the largest impacts can be estimated. For this note on Uganda, the focus is on the costs of child marriage, or equivalently the benefits of ending the practice. The focus the case of population growth. It also allows valuations to adjust is on benefits related to a reduction in the rate of population for increases in standards of living (GDP per capita) over time. growth, gains in educational attainment and thereby earnings, and reductions in under-five mortality and stunting. In most Estimates are provided in Table 81. The welfare benefits for cases, we estimate both immediate gains and longer-term Uganda from the lower population growth that would result gains, looking at the benefits that would accrue by 2030. This from ending child marriage and early childbearing are very allows for the estimates to account for the cumulative nature significant. If child marriage and early childbearing had ended of some of the benefits of ending child marriage, especially in in 2015, the immediate annual benefit could have been 1 Most estimates of economic costs are not affected by the updated analysis with the 2016 DHS because losses in earnings are based on income surveys and effects related to population growth are based on demographic projection tools. Costs associated with under-five mortality and stunting are affected, but estimates based on the 2011 data have been kept as impacts of early childbearing on both outcomes were statistically significant with that survey. 9 | THE COST OF NOT INVESTING IN GIRLS CHILD MARRIAGE, EARLY CHILDBEARING, LOW EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT FOR GIRLS, AND THEIR IMPACTS IN UGANDA : AN UPDATE | AUGUST 2019 equivalent to US$ 95 million in purchasing power parity be valued at US$ 275 million (PPP) by 2030. By comparison, (PPP), increasing to US$ 2.4 billion by 2030. In addition, net official development assistance to Uganda has been of the there would be over time budget savings thanks to a reduced order of US$ 1.7 billion per year in recent years, and the latest demand for public services due to lower population growth. budgets of the education and health sectors are of the order In the education sector, ending child marriage and early of US$250 million and US$309 million at current exchange childbirths could result in savings for the government of US$ rates. While some of these figures are in different units 257 million (current values) by 2030. As to the benefits from (Purchasing Power Parity versus current exchange rates), they the reduction in under-five mortality and stunting, they could help to show that the costs of child marriage are large. Table 8: Order of Magnitude of Selected Monetary Benefits from Ending Child Marriage Domains of Impact Annual Benefit in 2015 Annual Benefit in 2030 [Most estimates in PPP or Purchasing Power Parity] Fertility and population growth (1) Welfare cost US$95 million (PPP) US$2.4 billion (PPP) (2) Budget savings for education No benefit Up to US$257 million (current) Health, nutrition, and violence (3) Under-five mortality US$104 million (PPP) US$194 million (PPP) (4) Under-five stunting US$43 million (PPP) US$81 million (PPP) Education and earnings (5) Earnings loss for women US$514 million (PPP) Not estimated Note: Estimates for education budget savings are an upper bound and actual savings are likely to be lower. POTENTIAL OPTIONS FOR The second largest economic POLICIES AND PROGRAMS benefit from ending child marriage is higher earnings for To end child marriage and early childbearing, and improve women in adulthood, estimated educational attainment for girls, basic conditions should be met. Laws should be such that marriage before the at $514 million (purchasing age of 18 is not permitted. For educational attainment, power parity) in 2015. especially at the secondary level, there is a need to build schools closer to where children (boys and girls) live. As an violence more generally, community-based interventions alternative, adequate modes of transportation to schools with men, women, leaders and service providers are also could be provided, or communities could identify responsible needed, with successful pilots existing in Uganda. members to accompany girls to school and back and girls In addition, based on a literature review of programs intended could be trained on the benefits of walking in groups2. to improve young women’s sexual and reproductive health Providing separate water, sanitation and hygiene facilities outcomes, delay marriage and childbearing, and improve for girls is also important, as is the need to reduce the risk of girls’ participation in education, a three-pronged approach violence and sexual harassment in school. Finally, for specific can be recommended. challenges such as intimate partner violence or gender-based 2 Investment in alternative transportation for girls to school may not be achievable soon and may be costly. School based/home-grown community owned measures to enhance girls’ safety to and from school are a promising alternative. Communities could identify responsible members to accompany girls to school and back, and girls could be trained on the benefits of walking in groups including other personal safety skills. In pilot programs in some communities, older persons sat strategical- ly in the bush areas of the footpaths at specific times to watch over the girls on their way to and from school. These are low cost, sustainable home-grown efforts to reduce risks for girls. AUGUST 2019 | THE COST OF NOT INVESTING IN GIRLS CHILD MARRIAGE, EARLY CHILDBEARING, LOW EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT FOR GIRLS, | 10 AND THEIR IMPACTS IN UGANDA : AN UPDATE Programs to provide life skills and reproductive health Programs to keep girls in school or delay marriage: knowledge: Interventions to promote education, especially by reducing These interventions often rely on safe space programs the opportunity and out-of-pocket cost of schooling, are empowering girls through life skills training, better knowledge among the most likely to help delay the age at marriage and of sexual and reproductive health, and other skills. These childbearing. Some of these programs also enable girls who programs have achieved important benefits for girls, not dropped out to return to school. Programs providing financial only in terms of knowledge acquired, but also through gains incentives to girls or families directly to delay marriage may in self-esteem and confidence, among others. Yet, without also work. additional livelihood opportunities or incentives for schooling, it is not clear that safe spaces by themselves are sufficient to Implications for policy: delay marriage and childbearing. While some of the programs work better than others to delay marriage and childbearing and to improve educational Programs to expand economic opportunities: attainment for girls, all three categories of programs have Interventions that combine an emphasis on empowering benefits. By targeting different groups of girls, for example girls, often through safe spaces, with a focus on providing those in school or with the potential to return to school, and livelihood opportunities have demonstrated some success in those who dropped out and may not be able to return, all increasing earnings for participants, as well as employment three categories of programs should be considered when and savings. In some cases, they may also improve implementing a strategy aiming to improve opportunities for reproductive health outcomes and delay marriage or adolescent girls. childbearing, but not systematically so. In Uganda, there is evidence that such interventions have worked well. CONCLUSION While investments to end child marriage, prevent early Demonstrating the magnitude of these costs provides childbearing, and promote education for girls should not an additional justification for investments in adolescent be based solely on economic considerations, this note girls in Uganda. While further work would be needed demonstrates that the benefits from such investments to identify the best policy options for investing in would be large in Uganda. The primary motivation for adolescent girls in the country, useful lessons can be ending child marriage, preventing early childbearing, learned from the international experience, including and promoting education for girls should be to address some programs implemented in Uganda. Ending child the substantial risks and suffering faced by adolescent marriage, preventing early childbearing, and improving girls and their children. The evidence of the negative education opportunities for girls is not only the right impacts of these issues on a wide range of development thing to do from a moral and ethical standpoint, it is also outcomes is clear. However, in addition, these issues a smart investment for Uganda’s development. have large economic costs. APPENDIX: FRAMEWORK then estimated. A simple framework guides the analysis. As shown in Figure 1, we recognize first that girls’ education FOR ANALYZING IMPACTS and child marriage as well as early childbearing are closely linked. The literature and estimates from this series suggest AND COSTS OR BENEFITS that keeping girls in school is one of the best ways to delay marriage and childbearing. In contrast, marrying early One of the aims of this series of notes is to document the or becoming pregnant leads girls to drop out of school. impacts of girls’ education and child marriage as well as early Furthermore, child marriage is one of the main drivers of childbearing on a wide range of development outcomes. early childbearing. These relationships are acknowledged in Selected economic costs associated with those impacts are the top part of Figure A1. 11 | THE COST OF NOT INVESTING IN GIRLS CHILD MARRIAGE, EARLY CHILDBEARING, LOW EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT FOR GIRLS, AND THEIR IMPACTS IN UGANDA : AN UPDATE | AUGUST 2019 FIGURE A1: CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK OBJECTIVES ENDING CHILD EDUCATING MARRIAGE & GIRLS EARLY CHILDBEARING IMPACTS FOR GIRLS, THEIR CHILDREN & THEIR HOUSEHOLD FERTILITY HEALTH WORK AGENCY AGGREGATE COSTS & BENEFITS Income Gains Welfare Gains Budget Savings Other Benefits LOWER POVERTY AND INEQUALITY HIGHER WEALTH OF NATIONS AND SUSTAINABILITY In turn, both girls’ educational attainment and child marriage/ thanks to lower population growth; (2) Higher labor earnings early childbearing matter for other development outcomes. for women in adulthood; (3) Higher labor earnings for Four main outcomes are considered: fertility, health children in adulthood thanks to less stunting; (4) Valuation (including nutrition and the risk of exposure to intimate of the benefits associated with children’s lives saved; and (5) partner violence), work (including labor force participation Reduced budget needs thanks to lower population growth. and earnings), and agency (including decision-making and This list of benefits is by no means exhaustive, but it includes other impacts). While some of these impacts are estimated some of the largest economic benefits that can be expected. for girls marrying or dropping out of school early, others are estimated for their children. Finally, we note that the benefits from educating girls and ending child marriage at the level of individuals and Selected economic costs or benefits associated with the households have broader implications at the national and impacts of girls’ education and child marriage or early even global level. By raising standards of living (through childbearing are estimated next. Examples of benefits from higher GDP per capita with lower population growth and educating girls, ending child marriage, and preventing early higher earnings for women), educating girls and ending child childbearing include (1) Higher growth in GDP per capita marriage will reduce poverty as well as inequality. AUGUST 2019 | THE COST OF NOT INVESTING IN GIRLS CHILD MARRIAGE, EARLY CHILDBEARING, LOW EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT FOR GIRLS, | 12 AND THEIR IMPACTS IN UGANDA : AN UPDATE Recommended citation for this note: Wodon, Q., C. Male, A. Onagoruwa, A. Savadogo, and A Yedan. 2019. The Cost of Not Investing in Girls in Uganda: Child Marriage, Early Childbearing, Low Educational Attainment for Girls, and their Impacts: An Update. The Cost of Not Educating Girls Notes Series. Washington, DC: The World Bank. This note was originally prepared by World Bank staff as an update of analysis done for the 10th edition of the World Bank Economic Update for Uganda. It has been updated with more recent data. Funding for the update was provided by the Children’s Investment Fund Foundation and the Global Partnership for Education. Findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this note are entirely those of the author(s) and should not be attributed in any manner to the World Bank, to its affiliated organizations or to members of its Board of Executive Directors or the countries they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. Information and illustrations contained in this note may be freely reproduced, published or otherwise used for noncommercial purposes without permission from the World Bank. However, the World Bank requests that the original study be cited as the source. Photo credit: Rachel Mabala. © 2019 The World Bank, Washington, DC 20433. 13 | THE COST OF NOT INVESTING IN GIRLS CHILD MARRIAGE, EARLY CHILDBEARING, LOW EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT FOR GIRLS, AND THEIR IMPACTS IN UGANDA : AN UPDATE | AUGUST 2019 AUGUST 2019 | THE COST OF NOT INVESTING IN GIRLS CHILD MARRIAGE, EARLY CHILDBEARING, LOW EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT FOR GIRLS, | 14 AND THEIR IMPACTS IN UGANDA : AN UPDATE THE COST OF NOT INVESTING IN GIRLS CHILD MARRIAGE, EARLY CHILDBEARING, LOW EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT FOR GIRLS, AND THEIR IMPACTS IN UGANDA: AN UPDATE