WATER
P-NOTES
ISSUE 22 JanUary 2009
47310
Climate Variability and Water resources
in Kenya
The Economic Cost of Inadequate Management
E ighty percent of Kenya is arid and semi-arid the Water Act of 2002, establishes a framework
land; yet despite chronic water scarcity, the for regulation of water resources, decentralizes
country has developed only 15 percent of its water management decisions at the catchment
available safe water resources. Demand for water level, and authorizes the imposition of water use
is expected to rise, owing to population increases charges. Its overall aims include increasing water
and growing requirements for irrigated agriculture, storage capacity, decreasing flood damage, and
urban and rural populations, industries, livestock, providing greater security against shortages during
and hydropower. droughts.
Meanwhile, climate variability and the steady
degradation of water resources cost Kenya at Impacts of flood and
least 3.3 billion Kenyan shillings (Ksh) annually.
Between 1997 and 2000, the El Ni�o�La Ni�a drought cycles
floods and droughts cost an estimated 290 bil-
lion Ksh, or 14 percent of gross domestic product Kenya experiences moderate droughts and floods
(GDP) for the period. While it is not economical every three to four years, and major droughts
to avoid all costs, many of them can be minimized about every ten years. This pattern of floods and
by increased investments in management and in- droughts is driven by weather patterns, including
frastructure, and more efficient, accountable, and the El Ni�o and La Ni�a phenomena. El Ni�o
participatory management and operation of the flooding affects coastal settlements, urban areas,
water sector. river valleys, and Western Kenya, including the
fringes of Lake Victoria; La Ni�a droughts affect
Kenya's 1999 National Policy on Water Man- the whole country.
agement and Development recognized effective
water resource management as key to meeting basic The agriculture sector (25 percent of Kenyan
human needs and providing for sustainable eco- GDP, and 76 percent of water demand) is particu-
nomic development in a country in which key sec- larly sensitive to climate and to high rainfall vari-
tors--agriculture, livestock, energy, tourism, industry, ability, which ranges from 250 mm to 2,000 mm
and fisheries--depend heavily on natural resources. annually. Two-thirds of the country receives less
than 500 mm annually, which is particularly hard
The recently established Water Resources on agriculture and livestock production (the latter
Management Authority (WRMA), mandated by contributes 50 percent of small farmers' income).
This note reports findings and key messages from Climate Variability and Water Resources Degradation in
Kenya: Improving Water Resources Development and Management by Hezron Mogaka, Samuel Gichere,
Richard Davis, and Rafik Hirji, World Bank Working Paper 69, Washington, DC, December 2005. This was
one of 16 background papers for the World Bank Economic and Sector analysis, "Towards a Water Secure
Kenya: Water Resources Sector Memorandum (2004) prepared by a team led by Rafik Hirji. Readers may
download the complete paper from www.worldbank.org/water.
WATER P-NOTES
The value of livestock deaths alone from the Principal causes of that degradation are:
1997/98 drought was estimated at Ksh 5.8 bil-
lion. Main rural water supply structures, such as � Excessive abstraction of surface water (rivers,
small dams and pans, and large dam (including lakes and wetlands) and groundwater
Sasumua Dam supplying water for Nairobi) were � Soil erosion and resultant turbidity and siltation
damaged by flood-induced silting or outright de-
struction, as are pipelines, distribution networks, � High nutrient levels, causing eutrophication
and irrigation infrastructure, such as intake struc- (oxygen depletion) of lakes and pans
tures, canals, and drains. � Toxic chemicals, including agricultural pesti-
Power shortages from decreased hydropower cides and heavy metals.
(which provides over 65 % of the nation's electricity) Excessive abstraction causes rivers to dry up
during droughts result in income loss to industries during periods of low flow, leading to conflicts
and loss of productivity in the social and commer- among water users. Groundwater is being used
cial sectors; they have pushed some businesses out at unsustainable levels beneath Nairobi and other
of Kenya altogether. Tourism is affected by road urban areas, and drilling and pumping costs are
and railway washouts, increased cost of water to rising.
tourist facilities, and by damaged ecosystems, such
as coral reefs, beaches, and other wildlife attrac- Most of Kenya's rivers--rivers are the country's
tions. Many people displaced from regular jobs main water supply--originate in forested regions.
turn to subsistence fishing, causing overfishing. The But deforestation from logging leads to increased
forestry sector, which is already under heavy stress runoff and sedimentation. During rainy seasons, this
as a result of massive deforestation, also suffers causes regional flooding and the silting of dams
during droughts, with tree loss from illegal felling, and pans. When clearing is combined with new
fires, grazing, and disease. Erosion from cleared settlements, dry-season water flows drop, punctu-
forest areas causes accelerated siltation and loss of ated by storm flows and increased sediment flows
storage capacity in water storage dams and pans. downstream. Sediment goes into reservoirs, reduc-
Sedimentation into the Indian Ocean also imposes ing their economic life and the hydraulic capacity
a huge burden on the coastal coral reefs and in of water-conveyance facilities, and disrupting water-
impacting jetties and other boat landing sites in and supply operations. For example, the Sabaki Water-
near Malindi. works, constructed in the late 1970s, required the
addition of extensive settling basins upstream at a
Floods also cause extensive damage to water cost of US$1 million.
supply and sanitation infrastructure, including pipe-
lines and pumping stations. During the 1999/2000 Household water use is the second-largest
drought, people spent between three and eight after agricultural use. In cities, municipal sewage
hours lining up for or trekking to get water. Chil- treatment plants are inadequate, inefficient, or not
dren's education is disrupted by long hours spent functioning. Industries discharge their waste into
getting water; health suffers from flood- or drought- sewer systems or directly into open water. Contami-
induced food shortages; and at least 60 percent nation from toxic chemicals seeps into the water
of the top ten diseases in Kenya are waterborne or supply from storage facilities or landfills. Economic
sanitation-related, such as typhoid, cholera, amoe- costs from pollution include public health problems,
bic dysentery, and bilharzias. produce rejected by export markets because of con-
tamination, and loss of tourism.
Agricultural fertilizers and pesticides are the
Water resource degradation largest non-point-source pollutants. Phosphorus
and nitrogen flow into rivers and streams, where
In the face of this dire picture, funding for manag- they contribute to eutrophication of downstream
ing Kenya's water resources has decreased, with bodies of water and feed algal blooms and aquatic
serious consequences for water-allocation decisions, weeds. Eutrophication in Lake Victoria has made
enforcement, and water-quality management. The the bottom 30 meters of the lake anaerobic (or
country's water resources are now seriously de- inhospitable to Nile perch), the most commercially
graded. valuable species in the region. In the 1990s, water
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ISSUE 22 � JANUARY 2009
hyacinth occupied 90 percent of Lake Victoria's noncompliance with international agreements, or
shoreline. Costs included impaired water transport, increased conflicts over water access, although their
reduced fishing, higher costs, and lower water impact was significant.
quality, and increased diseases and vermin. (Water
hyacinth also brought economic opportunities, in-
cluding manufacturing of chairs, paper and pulp, Improving water resources
yarn, and rope.) development and management
The economic impact of rainfall Reforms of Kenya's water sector could substan-
tially reduce costs of water resource degradation
variability and water resource through better water resource management and
degradation greater investment in badly needed water sup-
ply infrastructure. Groundwater has considerable
We estimate that the 1997/98 El Ni�o floods cost potential for boosting water supplies, with an
Kenya 70 billion Ksh. That includes damage to wa- estimated annual safe yield of 1.0 billion m3 per
ter systems, roads, communications, and buildings; year. In cities and towns, the development of sur-
costs of treatment for waterborne diseases; and face water resources is preferable, in view of the
crop loss. The ensuing drought caused by La Ni�a, volumes required and the limited recharge rates of
lasting from October 1998 to May 2000, brought groundwater.
at least Ksh 220 billion in crop losses, livestock
loss, forest fires, fisheries damage, reduced hydro- Specific recommendations include:
power, reduced industrial production, and increases Political commitment. The Ministry for Water
in the cost of getting water. These figures represent and Irrigation should seek political support to make
about 11 percent of Kenya's GDP in 1998/99 and water resource management reforms a funded na-
16 percent of the GDP in each of the two drought tional priority. Cabinet support would help address
years that followed. economy-wide implications of water use and realign
We used the same data to estimate long-term water management institutions.
costs to the economy, arriving at an annual cost of Developing water storage capacity. The amount
floods and droughts of 16 billion Ksh, or about 2.4 of water in storage is seriously inadequate for the
percent of GDP. Floods take their toll largely in the population of a country that is growing rapidly and
form of capital losses--bridges, roads, water sup- exposed to considerable rainfall variability. The rec-
ply infrastructure. Droughts--estimated to cost 10.7 ommendations of the 1992 Water Master Plan and
billion Ksh, or 1.6 percent of GDP--exact costs 1998 Aftercare report should be reassessed in light
largely in annual production losses. of current needs--and acted upon with urgency.
Costs of water resource degradation are Mechanisms for improving the efficiency of water
even more difficult to estimate because they are use should include surface water and groundwater
incurred over long periods, often at sites distant banking, water reuse, demand management, repair
from the source of degradation; we estimated of gauging stations, and investment in new water
those costs at some Ksh 3.3 billion annually, or sources.
about 0.5 percent of GDP. This figure includes Decentralization. The WRMA is to oversee de-
costs of reservoir siltation, downstream flooding, centralization of water resources management func-
crop reductions, tapping of lowered water tables, tions (assessment, allocation, and enforcement at
water treatment, and impediments to water trans- catchment level), accelerating decision making and
portation and fishing. encouraging more input from water users. Water
These estimates are conservative, reflecting only use charges can provide a source of revenue for lo-
impacts that could be quantified. They fall on many cal enforcement activities.
sectors of the economy, including agriculture, water Participation. All stakeholders must be included
supply and sanitation, health, and power genera- in planning and decision making, implementation,
tion. We did not attempt to include indirect costs, and operations through catchment area advisory
such as loss of future employment opportunities, committees and water user associations.
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WATER P-NOTES
Sustainability. The Water Act includes provisions sources of pollution, it is impossible to make wise
to finance water resource management through decisions on water allocation, enforce pollution
water user charges, catchment levies, and licenses controls, plan and design water resources infra-
to pollute. Upstream and downstream stakeholders structure, or target investments in better catchment
must work with government agencies to manage management. The monitoring system could be
land sustainably. funded, in part, through water user charges.
Transparency. Often, appropriate legislation But knowledge and information alone are not
and regulations are in place, but enforcement (of enough to bring about changes. Enabling and
water permits, for example) is lacking. Increased empowering individuals to use that knowledge will
transparency in the administration and enforcement require training and capacity building. Training
of procedures, and improved community participa- will be required for the staff of the new WRMA, in
tion in decision making (and community acceptance such areas as water law, conflict resolution, water
of the need for regulations), will improve enforce- resources economics, environmental planning and
ment. This consequences of non transparent deci- management, and financial administration.
sions on transboundary waters, including use and
abstraction of Lake Victoria, can compound to seri- Specific pilot catchment or basin management
ous inequities and tensions among riparian nations. projects should be developed and supported to
serve as examples in other catchments. The pilot
Increasing the knowledge base for manage- projects should be selected to address priority is-
ment. Kenya has the institutional capacity to devel- sues such as flood management in the Lake Victoria
op an early warning system to prepare for El Ni�o Basin, water apportionment, catchment degradation
and La Ni�a floods and droughts, but more can be in the Mt. Kenya region, and groundwater manage-
done to make these forecasts accessible; hydrome- ment in arid and semi-arid areas.
teorological data are currently neglected. Earlier
warnings will reduce costs arising from the recurring The ongoing reforms in water resources man-
cycle of floods and droughts. agement and development in Kenya that are sup-
ported by various bilateral agencies and the World
The system for monitoring the extent and quality Bank have begun to implement a number of recom-
of the nation's resources must be repaired. Without mendations made in the 2004 economic and sector
adequate knowledge of climate, water use, and work cited above.
The Water Sector Board Practitioner Notes (P-Notes) series is published by the Water
Sector Board of the Sustainable Development Network of the World Bank Group.
P-Notes are available online at www.worldbank.org/water. P-Notes are a synopsis
of larger World Bank documents in the water sector.
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