Somalia Economics of Water September 2021 www.worldbank.org/water | www.blogs.worldbank.org/water | @WorldBankWater Background to the study and recognizing how water flows through so many other sectors URBAN GOVERNANCE EDUCATION SOCIAL AGRICULTURE HEALTH DRM LIVESTOCK ENVIRONMENT Water Platform General purposes of Country Platforms • Advocate with CMUs for sector • Advocate with Governments for sector • Streamline Bank interventions in sector • Dialogue and coordination mechanism A changing context Somalia Water Platform A framework for helping the World Bank in Somalia implement its CPF by addressing water sector issues in a way that helps ensure coordination within Bank teams, among development partners, and with relevant in-country stakeholders Project Development Objective To analyze key pathways through which the long-term availability of, or lack of, water services can impact economic outcomes, resilience and fragility in Somalia Research Questions Question 1: How much are water resources availability and quality of access to water services limiting factors for human and economic development in Somalia? Question 2: What are the socio-economic impacts of underinvestment as per consumptive water uses (with emphasis on water services for rural and urban areas and water for livestock and agriculture)? Question 3: How could water be better harnessed in the future? Headline Messages Climate-Environment Human Capital Impacts The lack of access to improved water supplies has long-term Vulnerability Water security challenges are amplified by impacts on Somalia's human capital across generations, affecting environmental degradation and climate change. the health, skills and knowledge of its citizens Expanding access to 08 01 Recurrent episodes of droughts and floods result in improved water sources also has the potential to increase women’s consecutive cycles of economic shock and recovery participation in education and the labour market Secure Rural Economy Poor macroeconomic 07 02 performance Efforts to diversify and strengthen the urban economy may not achieve their intended impacts if they are not complemented by measures to secure the rural Environmental and climate shocks, import bans and the economy against long term environmental degradation global economic fall-out of the COVID-19 pandemic and future economic and climatic shocks have resulted in a sluggish real GDP per capita growth for Somalia. This has been further dampened by the recent downward trend in foreign direct investments Need to diversify urban economy Somalia’s urban populations would benefit from economic diversification. Urban investments could 06 03 Reduced water sector spending Minuscule domestic revenue collection and capital generate large economic returns due to economies of expenditure, coupled with competing sectoral priorities scale and scope has resulted in Somalia’s water sector generally 05 04 allocated only a small share of domestic revenue Forced displacement + Rapid Urbanization Increase in inequality Inadequate water security increases inequality in the Forced displacement of rural populations as a result of country, and subsequently the vulnerability of certain economic and climatic shocks and environmental social groups degradation is one of Somalia’s most prominent challenges. Environmental and Climate Vulnerability leads to Poor Macroeconomic Performance Over 1M households vulnerable agro-pastoral and nomadic households in Somalia rely on farming and livestock for their livelihoods, Increasing flood US$ 3.5 B lost to frequency droughts Flood frequency and intensity With damages amounting to in the last 10 years along the US$ 1.02 billion and losses riverine areas has increased estimated at US$ 2.23 billion, the total effect of the 2017 In 2020, the three consecutive drought in Somalia was flood seasons (Gu, Haggai estimated to exceed US$ 3.25 and Deyr) resulted in billion. thousands of hectares of cropland waterlogged for more than six months Failed Rains Trends over the last decade suggest there could be a 35% chance of failed 'long' rains Water scarcity or, more broadly, water security challenges (amplified by environmental degradation and climate change) [NB: the emphasis in this report is on water scarcity and droughts], put at risk the country's growth prospects or, more generally, macroeconomic performance (external balance between imports and exports, fiscal balance between public revenues and expenditures, etc.). Source: Own elaboration, based on WB national accounts data and the key extreme events in Somalia, 2021. Due to data constraints, mirror statistics have been used, which poses some caveats. Source: AfDB, UNEP and GRID-Arendal. (2020). Sanitation and Wastewater Atlas of Africa. AfDB, UNEP and GRID-Arendal. Abidjan, Nairobi and Arendal. Poor Macroeconomic Performance leads to Reduced Water sector spending Sluggish GDP growth Sluggish real GDP per capita growth due to environmental and climate shocks FDI Downturn Macroeconomic performance further impacted due to recent downward trend in foreign direct investments . Reduced Public Revenue FGS’s minuscule domestic revenue collection and capital expenditure Competing sectoral priorities Ever-increasing pressure on public expenditure from other sectors COVID! The macro(economic) and the micro(economic) levels are closely linked: a. Domestic consumption in Somalia is related to food security and poverty and the behavior of food imports. b. Public spending on water management is very limited (high dependence on ODA and multilateral development institutions) but, simultaneously, water constraints limit public revenues: the role of the State has to change c. Water scarcity limits the potential for exports Source: MoPIED, 2018. Aid flows in Somalia. Analysis of aid flow data Source: The Ministry of Planning, Investment and Economic Development. National Development Plan 2020-2024 (NDP9) Water scarcity overlooked by economic development further drives inequality Water security ignored Economic and social development scenarios in Somalia have been developed in the absence of assessments of Increase in • long-term availability of water Inequality • water quality • water demand Water scarcity increases • wider water security concerns. inequalities in the country, the vulnerability of certain social groups, and their fragility. Incompatibility of growth drivers and water sector The way water resources are managed is not compatible with key development drivers for the country (urban development, expansion of livestock, incipient industrial development and informal activities…) Forced Displacement- Rapid Urbanization IDP Populations Movements of population dynamics to urban hubs has increased the pressure on existing water infrastructure and providers. Cities face particular vulnerabilities including large populations in poverty, violence, inequalities and sizable IDP populations, especially in regions with large IDP settlements. Water is generally provided by the private sector… Economic Shocks + Inequality Acting as quasi water utilities, small-scale providers or private entities. Water delivery by tanker is common. In urban areas, there is need to ease the burden on existing water delivery systems, but efforts need to be mindful of the commercial interests by those currently filling the gap in service provision. Climate and Environmental Risks In relation to water, urban and rural development processes feed into each other. There are complex interlinkages and IDPs shape urban peripheries. Source: WHO/UNICEF, 2019. JMP. Estimates on household water, sanitation and hygiene by wealth quintile and sub-national region in Somalia Source: WB, 2018. Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment. Volume II: Sector reports Source: WB, 2020. SOMALIA URBANIZATION REVIEW Fostering Cities as Anchors of Development Rural - Urban interdependency Urban Economy Securing the Rural Somalia’s urban populations could Economy benefit from economic diversification. Rural economies have to be secure so that Urban investments could generate they can completement urban economies : large economic returns due to against long term environmental economies of scale and scope. A degradation, future economic and challenge, given the enormous need, is climatic shocks determining which cities to prioritise Riverine Areas Agropastoral Sector Agro-pastoral households, concentrated in In the case of cities that rely on the riverine areas between the Juba and surface water from rivers, this will Shebelle rivers, could also help drive require forward-looking investments economic growth and diversification by in managing upstream and improving or expanding crop production downstream demand, variabilities in flow and water storage, including large scale infrastructure (dams and irrigation) Improving Ag. Yields Groundwater improving crop yields requires cross-sectoral Some cities are already reaching the limits of groundwater availability, while others still have Urban-Rural Periphery interventions, including with critical investments in water storage and irrigation considerable potential. While NDP-9 elaborates on the Understanding the role of the urban periphery in infrastructure. Support to improving farming importance of achieving economic growth through non- relation to why goods are not coming in from the techniques include farmer led irrigation traditional sectors, one way to improve economic hinterlands and defining the constraints to this in development and improving water storage in security through water is through mixed source provision relation to water is furthermore important. the drylands. Human Capital Development Intergenerational Human Access to improved Access to sanitation Gender Equity Capital Accumulation water source Women have a limited role in the decision-making 59% of Somalis have access to an 27% have access to an improved process related to community-level management The lack of access to improved improved source of drinking water sanitation facility. Access to of water resources. The water sector has an water supplies has long-term within 30 minutes. Lack of readily improved sanitation in rural areas extremely important role to play to keep girls in impacts on Somalia's human accessible safe and reliable water has stagnated at a very low level school, including ensuring that suitable WASH capital across generations, supplies, close to the home prevents and is currently estimated to be facilities and menstrual hygiene management are affecting the health, skills and the human capital development fewer than 10% with over 56% of catered for. Expanding access to improved water knowledge of its citizens across urban and rural populations households resorting to open sources also has the potential to increase women’s especially for women and children defecation participation in education and the labour market who generally fetch water. Becoming Data Producers and Analyzers Available to download @ MOWER Somalia- https://moewr.gov.so/ World Bank Water Global practice- https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/water WB Somalia- https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/somalia Groundwater in Somalia for drought resilience and social and economic development Methodology • Literature review and collection of geographic data sets for analyses and map presentation • Analysis of the renewable water resources and its meaning for water scarcity indicators • Assessment of shallow and deep groundwater and aquifers (quantity and quality) • Overview, evaluation and cost of blue water points and water delivery systems • Potential and cost of SWC measures to extend green water use for rainfed agriculture Findings • Water provision is scarce in Somalia despite the considerable resources: not in the right place; not at the right time • Water storage & recovery in shallow aquifers (sand dams /subsurface dams) is key to improve drought resilience Deep limestone and • Promoting manual drilling improves safe access to shallow sandstone aquifers groundwater and supports private sector development Shallow sand aquifers • Water quality concerns (salinity, bacteriological, fluoride) are Crystalline equally important in covering drinking water demands basement aquifer • Green water use does not compete with blue water Basalt aquifers • There is a potential for conjunctive use of surface & ground water in Shabelle and Juba river plains Major rivers River basin Somalia: Surface Water and Riverine Assessment – Jubba and Shabelle Rivers Methodology Main results • Literature review and • Much water is available in collection of data and Jubba: no limits to use; information; • Shabelle’s future at risk: • Assessing blue water • Depending on upstream development, flow can fall needs within basins; dramatically; • Modelling present water • With increased water use availability, needs and and climate change, river supply along the rivers may increasingly dry up; and under different flow • Increased variability will cause flow probabilities to probabilities; turn important to farming; • Extending the model into • The era of Shabelle being scenarios for 2035 and Somalia’s bread basket 2050. A dry Shabelle River in 2016 may come to an end. Institutional Analysis Methodology Themes Main Results • ‘Light touch’ literature review of • Capacity Constraints CREATE CONDITIONS water sector in SSA and HoA • Federal-State CONDUCIVE FOR REFORMS region Coordination o Improve Federal-State • Grey literature review level Communication and • Private Sector Coordination • Key Informant Interviews with • Lack of regulation and o Clarifying Roles and FGS and FMS oversight Responsibilities • Community Level Water o Standardize Skill/Gap Management Assessment o Long-term external support for technical roles Water+ calls for investing in nature today, for Somalia’s prosperous and resilient future Livelihoods zones (FSNAU and FNEW, 2015) Eroded soils Healthy soils Degraded Quantity rangelands rangelands Productive forests Methodology Deforestation Water Regenerating swamps • ‘Light touch’ review of international literature • Selection of three themes No swamps Productive mangroves • In depth analysis of relevant government, World Lost mangroves More equal society Bank, FAO documents and other literature in relation to the themes - specific to Somalia Inequalities • Drew on international literature in relation to specific topics Thanks www.worldbank.org/water | www.blogs.worldbank.org/water | @WorldBankWater