COMBINED PROJECT INFORMATION DOCUMENTS / INTEGRATED SAFEGUARDS DATA SHEET (PID/ISDS) Additional Financing . Report No.: 122262 Date Prepared/Updated: 04-Dec-2017 I. BASIC INFORMATION A. Basic Project Data Country: Ghana Project ID: P164827 Parent Project ID: P118858 Project Name: Ghana Statistics Development Program (P164827) Parent Project Name: Ghana Statistical Development Program (P118858) Region: AFRICA Estimated Appraisal Date: 8-Dec-2017 Estimated Approval 26-Jan-2018 Date: Practice Area (Lead): Poverty and Equity Financing Instrument: Investment Project Financing Borrower(s) Republic of Ghana Implementing Agency Ghana Statistical Service Financing (in USD Million) Financing Source Amount Statistics for Results Trust Fund 4.50 Financing Gap 0.00 Total Project Cost 4.50 Environmental Category C-not required Decision The review did authorize the team to appraise and negotiate Other Decision (as needed) Is this a Repeater project? No Is this a Transferred No project? (Will not be disclosed) . . B. Introduction and Context Country Context 1. Ghana experienced a number of serious external and domestic macroeconomic shocks in 2013/14, which fueled inflation and exacerbated fiscal imbalances. Lower prices for key exports have persisted with gold prices falling from US$1,600 in 2012 to US$1,200 in 2014 and further to US$1,073 per ounce in 2015, before rising again to $1,300 in mid-2016. Oil prices declined from US$91 in 2012 to US$54 per barrel in 2014 and further to US$35 per barrel in 2015. These sharply lower prices for Ghana’s main exports as well as energy rationing due to the shortage of electricity generating capacity relative to demand, weighed heavily on both the supply and demand sides of the economy. As a result, the GDP growth slowed from 7.3 percent in 2013 to 4 percent in 2014 and to 3.8 percent in 2015. 2. In 2016, Ghana’s economic growth slowed further, to 3.5 percent, due largely to contraction in the industry sector, which saw the oil sector under-perform because of the combined effects of production problems and weak oil prices. However, growth in the non- oil sector remained relatively robust, at 4.9 percent in 2016 compared to 4.0 percent in 2015. The Agriculture sector grew by about 3.0 percent in 2016, up from 2.8 percent in 2015. This growth was driven by a rebound in the cocoa sector in 2016, after a year of contraction. Growth in the services sector slowed from 6.3 percent in 2015 to 5.7 percent in 2016 as a number of the sub-sectors such as Trade and Repairs; Hotels and Restaurants; Transport and Storage; Real Estate and support Services all recorded lower growth compared to 2015, reflecting the generally slow economic activity in 2016, which in turn is attributed to costly credit and other private sector constraints such as costly and unreliable power supply. Economic data for the first quarter of 2017 showed a recovery as the economy expanded by 6.6 percent compared to 3.9 percent in the same period in 2016. While the services sector growth of 3.7 percent was slower than the first quarter 2016 performance of 6.3 percent, the agriculture and the industry sectors showed remarkable expansions of 7.6 percent and 11.5 percent, respectively. 3. Chronic fiscal deficits and currency depreciation led to increasing debt and higher inflation. The public debt stock rose from 38.7 percent of GDP in 2011 to 52 percent in 2013 and further to 71.7 percent by 2015. As government increasingly turned to short-term domestic securities, interest rates on 90-day T-bills rose to almost 26 percent. In addition, credit rating downgrades pushed up the costs of external borrowing. As a result, total interest payments almost doubled from 3.2 percent of GDP in 2012 to 6.5 percent in 2015. The expansionary fiscal policy also worsened existing inflationary pressures. As a result, inflation rose sharply, from 8.8 percent in 2012 to 17 percent in 2014. It remained above 17 percent for 2015 and most of 2016—well above the Central Bank’s medium-term target (8 ±2 percent). 4. The fiscal consolidation efforts supported by the IMF under an Extended Credit Facility (ECF) began to show some results as revenues improved and some elements of expenditure were better controlled. The estimated deficit for 2015 was considerably smaller, amounting to 7 percent of GDP. This consolidation was achieved both through revenue and expenditure measures, including, inter alia, rationalization of the Value-Added Tax (VAT), a new structure for petroleum taxes and special levies for fiscal stabilization and on imports, further actions to control the public-sector wage bill and elimination of petroleum subsidies. After notable fiscal consolidation efforts in 2015, however, Ghana missed its 2016 fiscal target by a large margin. The fiscal deficit rose to 9.3 percent, significantly higher than the target of 5.2 percent of GDP. The slippage was due to revenue shortfall and to overspending, ahead of the December 2016 elections and this exacerbated debt situation, as Ghana’s public debt stock reached US$29.2 billion, or 73.1 percent of GDP. The 2017 budget, however, aims to achieve a substantial increase in revenues and a sharper expenditure adjustment towards narrowing the fiscal deficit to 6.5 percent of GDP. 5. Although challenges remain, Ghana is making strong efforts to regain and maintain its economic stabilization program on the back of a return to fiscal consolidation over the medium-term. The GDP growth is expected to reach 7.5 percent in 2018 with growth driven by the oil and gas sector with the start of oil production at the TEN field in 2017, followed by oil and gas production at the Sankofa field in 2018. The gas component of the Sankofa project is expected to bolster domestic energy supply and support growth in the rest of the economy. However, the outlook is subject to both domestic and external risks. The downward trend of headline inflation has created room for policy easing evident in the 350- bps cut in policy rate between November, 2016 and May, 2017. However, Ghana still faces high financing costs in both the domestic and external markets as the debt stock remains high and interest rates remain susceptible to the actions of the US Federal Reserves with the gradual increases in its benchmark interest rate. In addition, the substantial legacy debt of the energy SOEs, excess capacity issues and ongoing operational losses pose substantial fiscal contingent liability risks over the medium term. Sectoral and Institutional Context 6. Ghana's statistical system consists of various Government Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs) with the Ghana Statistical Service (GSS) playing a central and coordinating role. The GSS has the responsibility to collect, compile, analyze, publish and disseminate official statistics in Ghana for general and administrative purposes and for coordinating developments in statistics outside the GSS. The GSS is primarily responsible for compiling national accounts and price statistics and conducting large scale household- based and establishment-based surveys, including the decennial population and housing censuses. Line ministries are responsible for producing administrative data. 7. In 2017, a second National Strategy for the Development of Statistics -NSDS (2017- 2021) following the expiration of the previous one, was developed through a consultative process. The new NSDS (2017-2021) sets out a 5-year strategy for the NSS. It recognizes this period as a crucial moment in which Ghana’s official statistics needs to be strengthened to become the standard bearer for accuracy, consistency, and credibility in the country. In particular, the plan seeks to address the underdevelopment of the administrative data system, such that more and better quality data would be collected at a lower cost to the public while maintaining crucial survey activity. This will be particularly important to fulfil the reporting requirements of both national and international development programs such as the Ghana Shared Growth and Development Agenda, the African Union’s Agenda 2063 and the Sustainable Development Goals. The new NSDS also plans to venture into new territories and explore the potential role that Big and Open data could play in the production and dissemination of official statistics. 8. This strategy supports 6 goals that together, address the major changes that must occur to ensure a flourishing NSS: (a) a new legal and regulatory environment would increase the coordinating ability of Ghana Statistical Service (GSS); (b) a focus on human resources will ensure that the correct combination of skills exists within the system to deliver the statistics that the country needs in order to make informed decisions; (c) modernizing the physical infrastructure will give the system the practical tools it requires, (d) updating the statistical infrastructure to address the issues of harmonization and keep products and services relevant; (e) a well-coordinated collection and production of data; and (f) effective dissemination of statistics to ensure that they meet the demands of users. 9. Based on several institutional assessments of the national statistical system, the Ghana Statistical Development Program was launched in 2014 and undertook institutional reforms at the Ghana Statistical Service. A new organizational structure was developed and implemented for the GSS. The project is also building the capacity of staff of the GSS in addition to nine (9) Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs). 10. Notable achievements in recent years include the implementation of the Sixth Round of the Ghana Standards Living Survey (GLSS6) in 2012/13, The 2015 Labor Force Survey(LFS), the 2015/16 Integrated Business Establishment Survey (IBES) and a three- series Annual School Censuses form 2014 to June 2017. Through the support of the Ghana Statistics Development Project (P118858), the national statistical system is being revamped. C. Proposed Development Objective(s) Original Project Development Objective(s) – Parent 11. To strengthen the National Statistical System in the production and dissemination of timely and robust statistics relevant for evidence-based policy-making and other uses. Key Results 12. The main outcome will be improved quality and reliability of statistical information for effective policy making and good governance and the design and monitoring of programs and policies. This will be measured by the following indicators:  User satisfaction with statistical products and services of the NSS (disaggregated by GSS, MDA, products);  Statistical Capacity score of Ghana (WB Statistical Capacity Indicator overall score and disaggregated by the following components: methodology, source data, and periodicity and timeliness);  Proportion of censuses and surveys implemented by NSS as per the long-term census and survey plan (GLSS, MICS, Labor Force Survey, IBES, Census of Agriculture); and;  Time between end of data collection and release of main report for household surveys (MICS, GLSS, IBES, and LFS). 13. The activities to be supported under the Additional Financing are geared towards enhancing data production. These activities are: i. Conducting the Census of Agriculture, ii. Conducting the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) iii. Annual School Census, and iv. Consultations on the Sustainable Development Goals Component Name: Component 1 – Institutional Reform and Organizational change Comments (optional) No change. PHCOMP Component Name: Component 2: Statistical Data Development and Management Comments (optional) No change. COMP Component Name: Component 3- Data Production and Dissemination Comments: There are four main activities under the Additional Financing namely, Census of Agriculture, Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS), Annual School Census, and training programs on the Sustainable Development Goals. All the above four activities would be under Component 3 of the original project. PHCOMP Component Name: Component 4 - Program Management and Monitoring and Evaluation Comments (optional) No change. E. Project location and Salient physical characteristics relevant to the safeguard analysis (if known) F. Environmental and Social Safeguards Specialists on the Team Demba Balde, Social Safeguards Specialist Anita Bimunka Takura Tingbani, Environmental Safeguards Specialist III. SAFEGUARD POLICIES THAT MIGHT APPLY Safeguard Policies Triggered? Explanation (Optional) Environmental Assessment OP/BP No There are no activities requiring any 4.01 physical footprint associated with the project. The project activities are limited to technical assistance in the area of statistic improvement to strengthen its use in policy formulation. Natural Habitats OP/BP 4.04 No The project has no physical footprint and hence No natural habitats will be affected by the project. Forests OP/BP 4.36 No The project has no physical footprint and hence will not affect any forests or forest related activities. Pest Management OP 4.09 No The project does not involve the use or procurement of pesticides. Physical Cultural Resources OP/BP No No Physical cultural resources will be 4.11 affected by the project. Indigenous Peoples OP/BP 4.10 No No Indigenous people will be affected by the project. Involuntary Resettlement OP/BP No Project has no physical footprint and 4.12 unlikely to induce involuntary resettlement or adverse impacts on local livelihoods. Despite this insignificant social risk profile, borrower will take steps to consult diverse groups of stakeholders and address pertinent gender issues that are relevant to the project. Safety of Dams OP/BP 4.37 No Project activities do not involve dams Projects on International No Project will not occur in areas considered Waterways OP/BP 7.50 as international waterways. Projects in Disputed Areas OP/BP No Project activities will not occur in disputed 7.60 areas. . IV. Key Safeguard Policy Issues and Their Management A. Summary of Key Safeguard Issues 1. Describe any safeguard issues and impacts associated with the proposed project. Identify and describe any potential large scale, significant and/or irreversible impacts: NA 2. Describe any potential indirect and/or long term impacts due to anticipated future activities in the project area: NA 3. Describe any project alternatives (if relevant) considered to help avoid or minimize adverse impacts. NA 4. Describe measures taken by the borrower to address safeguard policy issues. Provide an assessment of borrower capacity to plan and implement the measures described. NA 5. Identify the key stakeholders and describe the mechanisms for consultation and disclosure on safeguard policies, with an emphasis on potentially affected people. NA B. Disclosure Requirements (N.B. The sections below appear only if corresponding safeguard policy is triggered) Environmental Assessment/Audit/Management Plan/Other Date of receipt by the Bank Date of submission to InfoShop For category A projects, date of distributing the Executive Summary of the EA to the Executive Directors "In country" Disclosure nvCtry If the project triggers the Pest Management and/or Physical Cultural Resources policies, the respective issues are to be addressed and disclosed as part of the Environmental Assessment/Audit/or EMP. If in-country disclosure of any of the above documents is not expected, please explain why: There are no activities requiring any physical footprint associated with the project. The project activities are limited to technical assistance in the area of statistic improvement to strengthen its use in policy formulation. C. Compliance Monitoring Indicators at the Corporate Level (to be filled in when the ISDS is finalized by the project decision meeting) (N.B. The sections below appear only if corresponding safeguard policy is triggered) OP/BP/GP 4.01 - Environment Assessment Does the project require a stand-alone EA Yes [] No [X] NA [] (including EMP) report? If yes, then did the Regional Environment Unit or Practice Manager (PM) review and approve the EA Yes [] No [] NA [X] report? Are the cost and the accountabilities for the EMP Yes [] No [] NA [X] incorporated in the credit/loan? The World Bank Policy on Disclosure of Information Have relevant safeguard policies documents been Yes [] No [] NA [X] sent to the World Bank's Infoshop? Have relevant documents been disclosed in-country in a public place in a form and language that are Yes [] No [] NA [X] understandable and accessible to project-affected groups and local NGOs? All Safeguard Policies Have satisfactory calendar, budget and clear institutional responsibilities been prepared for the Yes [] No [] NA [X] implementation of measures related to safeguard policies? Have costs related to safeguard policy measures Yes [] No [] NA [X] been included in the project cost? Does the Monitoring and Evaluation system of the project include the monitoring of safeguard impacts Yes [] No [] NA [X] and measures related to safeguard policies? Have satisfactory implementation arrangements been agreed with the borrower and the same been Yes [] No [] NA [X] adequately reflected in the project legal documents? V. Contact point World Bank Smile Kwawukume Senior Public Sector Specialist Ayago Esmubancha Wambile Economist/Statistician Borrower/Client/Recipient PHBorr Name: Republic of Ghana Contact: Michael Ayesu Title: Director, External Relations Department Email: MAyesu@mofep.gov.gh Implementing Agencies PHIMP Name: Ghana Statistical Service Contact:Mr. Baah Wadieh Title: Acting Government Statistician Email: baah.wadieh@statsghana.gov.gh VI. For more information contact: The World Bank 1818 H Street, NW Washington, D.C. 20433 Telephone: (202) 473-1000 Web: http://www.worldbank.org/projects VII. Approval Task Team Leader(s): Name: Smile Kwawukume; Ayago Esmubancha Wambile Approved By: Safeguards Advisor: Name: Maman-Sani Issa Date: December 4, 2017 Practice Manager: Name: Andrew L. Dabalen Date: December 5, 2017 Country Director: Name: Errol George Graham (Acting Date: December 18, 2017 CD)