GROUNDSWELL AFRICA INTERNAL CLIMATE MIGRATION IN WEST AFRICAN COUNTRIES THE RESULTS Up to 32 million internal climate migrants in West African countries by 2050 in the absence of concrete climate and development action. Climate migration hotspots could emerge as early as 2030 and continue to intensify by 2050 across West African countries. 0.3 – 2.2 million people living along the West African coast could be compelled to move out of the 5-kilometer coastal belt by 2050 due to sea level rise compounded by storm surges. The population migration model and analysis combine climate and nonclimate factors— expanding the Groundswell model—to better inform policy dialogue and action. Water availability Sea level rise and storm surge Crop productivity Median age Ecosystem productivity Sex Flood risk Conflict LOCALITY AND CONTEXT MATTER Internal climate migration is not uniform across countries. Some areas will be more adversely impacted by climate change than others. The optimistic scenario (inclusive development and low emissions) yields lower numbers of internal climate migrants than the pessimistic scenario (high emissions and unequal development). Internal climate migrants by 2050 Niger Nigeria Senegal Mali Benin Pessimistic Optimistic Burkina Faso 0 2 4 6 8 10 Million The study also included Cabo Verde, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, The Gambia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mauritania, São Tomé and Príncipe, Sierra Leone, and Togo. Climate in- and out-migration hotspots could expand and intensify by 2050 NIGERIA: Climate in- 2050 migration hotspots could emerge in areas of high poverty levels in the north (Kano), driven by positive MAURITANIA MALI water availability and crop production trends. NIGER The southeast, southwest, SENEGAL THE GAMBIA and coastal states (Lagos, GUINEA-BISSAU BURKINA FASO Ogun, and Rivers) could GUINEA see emergence of climate BENIN NIGERIA CÔTE D’IVOIRE out-migration hotspots, GHANA SIERRA LEONE primarily due to sea level LIBERIA TOGO rise compounded by storm surge, water stress, losses. KENYA and crop yield UGANDA SÃO TOMÉ AND PRÍNCIPE Illustrative map LAKE NIGER: Eastern areas VICTORIA RWANDA climate out-migration climate in-migration hotspots hotspots BURUNDIclimate in- could see migration due to favorable TANZANIA climatic conditions MALI: Major climate in- SENEGAL: Areas near the projected in eastern migration could emerge border with Mauritania, portions of the Sahel. This in the southeast near the Guinea-Bissau, and is to be to be interpreted border with Burkina Faso The Gambia could see with caution due to the because of increases climate in-migration due harsh conditions there. The in water availability to increases in water southwest is projected to and pasturage. Climate availability and crop see climate out-migration out-migration around production. West central because of water stress. Bamako and north of the areas (Dakar, Thies, Koulikoro region could Fatick, and Kaolack) on BENIN: The south, outside emerge due to water the coastal front could the lower elevation areas, stress and crop losses. see climate out-migration. could emerge as climate in-migration hotspot. Low- BURKINA FASO: Climate in-migration could emerge lying areas along the coast in the central part of the country, while climate could see climate out- out-migration could occur in the southwest and migration due to coastal some localities in the center because of declining flooding and erosion. crop productivity. Climate migration hotspots are not predestined. Early and concrete climate and development action can reduce adverse impacts and harness opportunities for jobs and economic growth. TAKING RESULTS TO ACTION Migration and Climate-Informed Solutions (MACS) Climate-Smart Opportunities for Migration with Proactive Core Policy and Action Areas Solutions and Sustainable (COMPASS) Domains Conduct spatio-temporal Adopt farsighted analytics on climate landscape and migration hotspots territorial approaches Improve Cut understanding greenhouse on migration gases Domesticate Harness climate policies and migration for jobs bridge legal gaps Pursue inclusive, Embed and economic climate-resilient, migration in transitions and green development development Nurture humanitarian- development-peace partnerships Core Policy Areas CUT GREENHOUSE GASES EMBED ALL PHASES OF to reduce climate pressure CLIMATE MIGRATION IN on people’s livelihoods and DEVELOPMENT PLANNING the associated scale of to adapt in place, enable climate migration. mobility, and provide post migration support. PURSUE INCLUSIVE, CLIMATE-RESILIENT, AND IMPROVE UNDERSTANDING GREEN DEVELOPMENT to OF INTERNAL CLIMATE anticipate and equitably MIGRATION to contextualize respond to the needs and comprehend climate of climate migrants migration, particularly at and communities. regional to local scales. Action Domains Exemplified for West African countries CONDUCT SPATIO-TEMPORAL EMBRACE LANDSCAPE AND ANALYTICS to gauge the TERRITORIAL APPROACHES emergence of climate to enable early planning and migration hotspots in coastal action across spatial and time areas, particularly cities as scales to devise strategies engines of growth (Dakar, that straddle hotspots Lagos, Cotonou, Accra, (Accra and lower Volta River Nouakchott, São Tomé, and Basin in Ghana; San Pedro Lomé) and areas of high and Yamoussoukro in Cote poverty incidence (Kano in d’Ivoire) in response to the Nigeria, Korhogo in Côte dynamics of climate in- and d’Ivoire, and near Matam in out-migration localities. Senegal) to set out for the challenges and opportunities. NURTURE DEVELOPMENT- HUMANITARIAN-PEACE HARNESS CLIMATE-INDUCED PARTNERSHIPS to capitalize MIGRATION FOR JOBS AND on comparative advantages ECONOMIC TRANSITIONS to support the needs of to leverage growth and migrants and host communities. development opportunities based on West African DOMESTICATE POLICIES countries’ youth bulge, AND BRIDGE LEGAL GAPS structural transformations in in response to existing legal climate sensitive sectors (e.g. frameworks, agreements, agriculture, rainfed crops), and and processes, and mobilize investment in human capital action, for example through for green growth, including the Kampala Convention. through skills development and education. This work was conducted with support received from AFRI-RES, GIZ, WACA, and the World Bank. WWW.WORLDBANK.ORG/EN/PROGRAMS/AFRICA-CLIMATE-BUSINESS-PLAN