Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No: ICR00005414 IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION AND RESULTS REPORT Cr. 51540-NG ON A CREDIT IN THE AMOUNT OF SDR 112.8 MILLION (US$ 170 MILLION EQUIVALENT) TO THE The Government of the Federal Republic of Nigeria FOR THE NG-RURAL ACCESS & MOBILITY PROJECT-Phase 2 21 June, 2021 Transport Global Practice Africa West Region CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (Exchange Rate Effective {Feb 10, 2021}) Currency Unit = Nigerian Naira ₦ 401 = US$1 US$ 1 = SDR 1 FISCAL YEAR July 1 - June 30 Regional Vice President: Ousmane Diagana Country Director: Shubham Chaudhuri Regional Director: Riccardo Puliti Practice Manager: Aurelio Menendez Task Team Leader(s): Olatunji Ahmed ICR Main Contributor: Bertrand Murguet ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS AFD Agence Française de Développement (French Development Agency) ARAP Abbreviated Resettlement Action Plan CBM Community-Based Maintenance CPS Country Partnership Strategy DIME World Bank Development Impact Evaluation Initiative ESHS Environmental Social Health and Safety ESIA Environmental and Social Impact Assessments ESMF Environmental and Social Management Framework FM Financial Management FPIM Federal Project Implementation Manual FPMU Federal Project Management Unit GBV Gender Based Violence GIS Geographic Information System HDM-4 Highway Development and Management Model IDA International Development Association IE Impact Evaluation LA Legal Agreement M&E Monitoring and Evaluation NATA Nigeria Agriculture Transformation Agenda PDO Project Development Objectives PPA Project Preparation Advance RAMP Rural Access and Mobility Project RAMS Road Asset Management System RAP Resettlement Action Plan RNIS Road Network Inventory System RPF Resettlement Policy Framework SDR Special Drawing Rights SPIU State Project Implementation Unit Table of Contents DATA SHEET ................................................................................................................................6 PROJECT CONTEXT AND DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES...............................................................10 A. CONTEXT AT APPRAISAL .................................................................................................................. 10 Project Development Objectives (PDOs) .......................................................................................... 12 Key Expected Outcomes and Outcome Indicators ............................................................................ 12 Components..................................................................................................................................... 13 B. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING IMPLEMENTATION ........................................................................ 14 Other Changes during the restructurings ......................................................................................... 14 Rationale for Changes and Their Implication on the Original Theory of Change .............................. 16 I. OUTCOME ..............................................................................................................................16 A. RELEVANCE OF PDOs ....................................................................................................................... 16 Assessment of Relevance of PDOs and Rating.................................................................................. 16 B. ACHIEVEMENT OF PDO (EFFICACY) .................................................................................................. 17 Justification of Overall Efficacy Rating ............................................................................................. 21 C. EFFICIENCY ....................................................................................................................................... 21 Assessment of Efficiency and Rating ................................................................................................ 21 D. JUSTIFICATION OF OVERALL OUTCOME RATING .............................................................................. 22 E. OTHER OUTCOMES AND IMPACTS ................................................................................................... 22 Institutional Strengthening .................................................................................................................. 23 Mobilizing Private Sector Financing ..................................................................................................... 23 Poverty Reduction and Shared Prosperity........................................................................................ 23 II. ... KEY FACTORS THAT AFFECTED IMPLEMENTATION AND OUTCOME ..................................24 A. KEY FACTORS DURING PREPARATION.............................................................................................. 24 B. KEY FACTORS DURING IMPLEMENTATION ....................................................................................... 25 III. .. BANK PERFORMANCE, COMPLIANCE ISSUES, AND RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME ...25 A. QUALITY OF MONITORING AND EVALUATION (M&E) ..................................................................... 25 M&E Design ..................................................................................................................................... 26 M&E Implementation ...................................................................................................................... 26 M&E Utilization ................................................................................................................................ 26 Justification of Overall Rating of Quality of M&E ............................................................................. 26 B. ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, AND FIDUCIARY COMPLIANCE .............................................................. 26 C. BANK PERFORMANCE ...................................................................................................................... 28 Quality at Entry ................................................................................................................................ 28 Quality of Supervision ...................................................................................................................... 28 Justification of Overall Rating of Bank Performance ........................................................................ 29 D. RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME ................................................................................................. 29 IV. .. LESSONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS .................................................................................29 ANNEX 1. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND KEY OUTPUTS ..............................................................31 ANNEX 2. BANK LENDING AND IMPLEMENTATION SUPPORT/SUPERVISION...........................40 ANNEX 3. PROJECT COST BY COMPONENT ...............................................................................43 ANNEX 4. EFFICIENCY ANALYSIS ...............................................................................................44 ANNEX 5. BORROWER, CO-FINANCIER AND OTHER PARTNER/STAKEHOLDER COMMENTS ....45 ANNEX 6. BORROWER ICRR EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................................46 ANNEX 7. FOLLOW-ON SURVEY ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC DATA: KEY INDICATORS (2020) ..........62 ANNEX 8: ENVIRONMENTAL AND SOCIAL SAFEGUARDS AUDIT, MARCH 2021 .......................69 ANNEX 9: LIST OF SUPPORTED DOCUMENTS............................................................................77 ANNEX 10: PROJECT MAP (SOURCE: PAD) ................................................................................78 The World Bank NG-RURAL ACCESS & MOBILITY PROJECT-Phase 2 (P095003) DATA SHEET BASIC INFORMATION Product Information Project ID Project Name P095003 NG-RURAL ACCESS & MOBILITY PROJECT-Phase 2 Country Financing Instrument Nigeria Investment Project Financing Original EA Category Revised EA Category Partial Assessment (B) Partial Assessment (B) Organizations Borrower Implementing Agency Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, Niger State Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, Osun State Ministry of Local Government, The Government of the Federal Republic of Nigeria Chieftaincy Affairs, Water Resources and Community Affairs, Adamawa State Ministry of Rural Development, Enugu State Ministry of Works Project Development Objective (PDO) Original PDO The Project's Development Objective (PDO) is to improve transport conditions and bring sustained access to the rural population through rehabilitating and maintaining key rural transport infrastructure in a sustainable manner in selected Nigerian states. Progress towards the PDO will be monitored using the following four core indicators: - Direct project beneficiaries, of which female (percentage) - Roads in good and fair condition as a share of total classified roads (percentage) - Share of rural population with access to an all-season road (proportion) - Roads receiving adequate levels of maintenance (kilometers) Page 6 of 78 The World Bank NG-RURAL ACCESS & MOBILITY PROJECT-Phase 2 (P095003) FINANCING Original Amount (US$) Revised Amount (US$) Actual Disbursed (US$) World Bank Financing 170,000,000 170,000,000 160,023,609 IDA-51540 Total 170,000,000 170,000,000 160,023,609 Non-World Bank Financing 0 0 0 Borrower/Recipient 14,360,000 0 0 FRANCE: French Agency for 120,000,000 0 0 Development Local Govts. (Prov., District, 12,710,000 0 0 City) of Borrowing Country Total 147,070,000 0 0 Total Project Cost 317,070,000 170,000,000 160,023,609 KEY DATES Approval Effectiveness MTR Review Original Closing Actual Closing 25-Sep-2012 22-Nov-2013 28-Oct-2016 31-Dec-2018 31-Dec-2020 RESTRUCTURING AND/OR ADDITIONAL FINANCING Date(s) Amount Disbursed (US$M) Key Revisions 28-Dec-2018 118.22 Change in Components and Cost Change in Loan Closing Date(s) Change in Financing Plan Reallocation between Disbursement Categories Change in Implementation Schedule 30-Sep-2020 154.87 Change in Loan Closing Date(s) Reallocation between Disbursement Categories KEY RATINGS Outcome Bank Performance M&E Quality Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory Modest Page 7 of 78 The World Bank NG-RURAL ACCESS & MOBILITY PROJECT-Phase 2 (P095003) RATINGS OF PROJECT PERFORMANCE IN ISRs Actual No. Date ISR Archived DO Rating IP Rating Disbursements (US$M) 01 28-Apr-2013 Moderately Unsatisfactory Satisfactory 1.88 02 23-May-2013 Moderately Unsatisfactory Satisfactory 1.88 03 22-Nov-2013 Moderately Unsatisfactory Satisfactory 1.87 04 18-May-2014 Moderately Satisfactory Satisfactory 25.87 05 28-Nov-2014 Moderately Satisfactory Satisfactory 28.90 06 12-Jun-2015 Moderately Satisfactory Satisfactory 36.69 07 22-Jul-2015 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 36.86 08 19-Jun-2016 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 47.42 09 29-Dec-2016 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 51.82 10 27-Jun-2017 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 84.32 11 15-Dec-2017 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 95.65 12 15-Jun-2018 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 99.82 13 21-Dec-2018 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 120.09 14 30-May-2019 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 124.38 15 09-Dec-2019 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 131.38 16 15-Jun-2020 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 143.47 SECTORS AND THEMES Sectors Major Sector/Sector (%) Agriculture, Fishing and Forestry 3 Public Administration - Agriculture, Fishing & Forestry 3 Page 8 of 78 The World Bank NG-RURAL ACCESS & MOBILITY PROJECT-Phase 2 (P095003) Public Administration 5 Sub-National Government 5 Transportation 92 Rural and Inter-Urban Roads 92 Themes Major Theme/ Theme (Level 2)/ Theme (Level 3) (%) Economic Policy 50 Trade 50 Trade Facilitation 50 Urban and Rural Development 50 Rural Development 50 Rural Infrastructure and service delivery 50 ADM STAFF Role At Approval At ICR Regional Vice President: Makhtar Diop Ousmane Diagana Country Director: Marie Francoise Marie-Nelly Shubham Chaudhuri Director: Jamal Saghir Riccardo Puliti Practice Manager: Supee Teravaninthorn Aurelio Menendez Nicolas Peltier-Thiberge, Juan Task Team Leader(s): Olatunji Ahmed Gaviria ICR Contributing Author: Bertrand Murguet Page 9 of 78 The World Bank NG-RURAL ACCESS & MOBILITY PROJECT-Phase 2 (P095003) PROJECT CONTEXT AND DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES A. CONTEXT AT APPRAISAL Country context 1. At appraisal in 2012, Nigeria was the most populous country in Africa with a population of 162.5 million. It came out of a decade of good economic performance with a GDP per capita increasing from US$ 300 in 2001 and reaching US$ 1,541 in 2011. Nigeria was considered as a low middle-income country. The economy was heavily dependent on the oil sector, accounting for 15 percent of GDP and 95 percent of foreign exchange earnings. Poverty remained a major challenge with more than half the population living on less than US$1.25 a day. Two third of the poor lived in rural areas, although a large variation could be found between states. Agriculture, mostly subsistence, represented 40 percent of GDP, and employed majority of the labor force, with three Nigerian out of five working in this sector nationally, and four out of five in rural areas. Nigeria was an exporter of groundnuts, cocoa and palm oil and a significant producer of coconuts, citrus fruits, corn, millet, cassava, yams, and sugar cane. The sector needed modernization to increase productivity and scale up to commercial agriculture. 2. The Nigerian government adopted an ambitious “Nigeria Agriculture Transformation Agenda” (NATA) in 2012 to modernize the sector and boost the competitiveness of selective high-value crops (such as rice, cassava, sorghum, palm oil, cocoa), aquaculture and livestock. Increasing the infrastructure stock in rural areas with high agriculture potential, and ensuring effective connectivity between production areas, processing zones and markets, were important priorities that were expected to be addressed through improving the conditions of selected feeder roads. RAMP 2 was designed to support the implementation of NATA. 3. Since independence, Nigeria has faced cycles of violence, which have resulted in enormous costs among the population in human suffering and social and economic consequences. This violence has placed a significant burden on the country’s development performance and prospects. Violence and insecurity are particularly acute in four areas (the North East, the Niger delta, the Middle Belt, and the urban environment) but its impacts were felt throughout the country. Social cohesion has been deeply affected by the Boko Haram conflict in the North East (Borno, Yobe, and Adamawa states were most affected by activities of Boko Haram and the military operations in response). Other forms of violence include urban crime, kidnapping and conflicts between pastoralists and agriculturalists. Sectoral context 4. At appraisal, Nigeria had a relatively dense but deteriorated road network consisting of about 194,000 km of roads. The road density (0.21 km of roads per square kilometer) was almost twice as much as Cameroon. However, only 10 to 15 percent of the total network was paved, and only 15 percent of the federal network can be considered in good condition. Poor transport infrastructure had been identified as a central obstacle to economic and social development in rural areas. In 2007, it was estimated that less than half of the rural population lived less than 2 km away from an all- weather road (Rural Accessibility Index of 47 %). Due to inadequate transport infrastructure, about 30 million Nigerians lived in near isolation and lacked access to income-generating opportunities and social services. 5. Responsibilities for road infrastructure management reflect the three-tier government structure Under Nigeria’s federal structure, the Federal Ministry of Works and Housing (FMWH) focuses on the management of the federal roads, leaving to sub-national governments (state and local governments) the responsibility of managing state and rural roads. Page 10 of 78 The World Bank NG-RURAL ACCESS & MOBILITY PROJECT-Phase 2 (P095003) Yet, local governments have not been fully active in the development and maintenance of the rural road network due to lack of capacity and inadequate funding. Although the state governments have better capacity and funding, they mostly focus on the higher-level state roads. A joint account between the state government and the LGAs is generally used to finance (or co-finance rural roads investments) but available financing is low and the actual involvement of LGAs in the management of these resources remains limited. This institutional structure and absence of an operational Road Fund have in effect led to rural roads not having a defined ownership structure and the steady deterioration of the rural roads once constructed or rehabilitated. 6. Road maintenance was highly neglected. In practice, and despite the constitution of road maintenance funds at the federal level, road maintenance for the state and rural infrastructure remains largely neglected due to lack of clear ownership structure and sustainable funding strategies. Even on the federal network where the Federal Road Maintenance Agency (FERMA) had been investing significant efforts and resources to develop efficient maintenance mechanisms, it was estimated that 56 percent of the federal roads lacked maintenance. At the national level, a 2009 study estimated that actual spending in road maintenance in Nigeria achieved only 20 percent of the requirements, one of the lowest proportions observed among a pool of African countries1. 7. In early 2004, the Government launched a new policy named “National Economic Empowerment and Development Strategy” (NEEDS). NEEDS was a national coordinated framework of action in collaborat ion with State and Local governments that aimed at interventions in the rural infrastructure, health, housing, and employment sectors. Its two key objectives were to improve the transport infrastructure and promote agricultural development. Recognizing the rural mobility gap, the Federal Government adopted in 2007 the National Policy on Rural Travel and Transport (NPRTT), as part of its poverty eradication program. Coupled to the policy, the Government realized the need to start a systematic investment in rural connectivity under the Rural Accessibility and Mobility Program—a national program that would be gradually rolled out to eventually cover all the states. The first phase of RAMP was piloted in Kaduna state and was launched in 2008 and closed in 2016 (US$ 60 million). Its PDO was to “Improve road access for rural communities in Kaduna State and to improve management of State road network in a sustainable manner”. To address the critical issue of the lack of maintenance, the RAMP-1 introduced the piloting of Output and Performance-based Road Contracts (OPRC). The project rehabilitated and maintained 475 Km of roads and 146 river crossings. The local construction industry developed skills through their participation in the OPRC. This first RAMP yielded interested lessons that have been incorporated in the design of RAMP-2 and are discussed in paragraph 46. During the implementation of RAMP-1, the French Development Agency (AFD) was looking to invest in rural infrastructure projects in Nigeria and was seeking an experienced partner in the country. These consultations will lead to the joint preparation and co-financing of RAMP-2. Theory of Change (Results Chain) 8. RAMP-2 followed the first RAMP (RAMP-1) that was implemented in Kaduna State (2008-2016) and adopted its theory of change by improving the condition of rural feeder roads. It is expected that the project will reduce transport time and costs. As interventions area and roads were selected according to their high agricultural potential, it is expected that reduction in time and costs will also promote connectivity to markets for agricultural inputs and outputs.. Lastly, the project could lead to changes in the consumption basket of households if with the same amount of money, they can purchase more amount and more diverse goods. 1 Kenneth Gwilliam and others, Africa’s Transport Infrastructure, Mainstreaming Maintenance and Management, World Bank (2009) Page 11 of 78 The World Bank NG-RURAL ACCESS & MOBILITY PROJECT-Phase 2 (P095003) Furthermore, an increase in agricultural productivity and commercialization, will ultimately raise income and the expenditure of rural residents. The project would also help sustain better road condition by financing road maintenance and incentivize states’ participation with a decreasing funding mechanism (100% subsidy on year one, then 50% on year two and then 0% for year 3). There was no graphic representation of the Theory of Change in the PAD, therefore an illustration was reconstituted for this ICR. Figure 1: Reconstituted Theory of Change at Appraisal Impact • Increased agricultural productivity and commercialization • Increased income and expenditure of rural population • Increased share of roads in good and fair conditions of the total classified network Outcomes/ • Increased share of roads receiving adequate levels of maintenance PDO • Increased share of rural population with access to an all-season road Results • Rural road infrastructure rehabilitated or improved to all-weather standards • River crossings (culverts and small bridges) built • Rural road infrastructure efficiently and permanently maintained • Days of work generated by routine maintenance, included for vulnerable groups • Design studies prepared for tier-2 States • Improved planning, management, and financing of maintenance Activities • Road rehabilitation and construction of river crossings • Routine maintenance through Community-Based Maintenance approach • Annual Mechanized Maintenance • Creation of Road asset management system • Preparation of Low volume roads manual • Creation of GIS-based inventories Project Development Objectives (PDOs) 9. The Legal Agreement dated September 9, 2013 states that the PDO is to improve transport conditions and bring sustained access to the rural population, through rehabilitating and maintaining key rural transport infrastructure in a sustainable manner in the participating states. Key Expected Outcomes and Outcome Indicators 10. Achievement of the Development objective was to be measured through four (04) key outcome indicators: 1) Direct project beneficiaries (number), of which female (percentage) 2) Roads in good and fair condition as a share of total classified roads (percentage) Page 12 of 78 The World Bank NG-RURAL ACCESS & MOBILITY PROJECT-Phase 2 (P095003) 3) Increase of share of rural population with access to an all-season road (Rural Access Indicator) 4) Roads receiving adequate levels of maintenance (Km) Components 11. The project had three (3) components with a total estimated IDA financing of US$ 170 million, AFD co-financing of US$60 million and counterpart funding of US$ 12.7 million. Component costs added up to the total project costs. 12. Component 1 – Upgrading and Rehabilitation of Rural Transport Infrastructure (Original total cost: US$162.7 million; IDA: US$111.7 million; French Development Agency: US$51.0 million) of an estimated 1,450 km of rural roads2 in tier- one states (i.e. Adamawa, Enugu, Osun and Niger States). Sub-component 1.1 (Original total Cost: US$153.0 million; IDA: US$102.0 million; AFD: US$51.0 million) financed design studies, upgrading and/or rehabilitation costs and related supervision activities for approximately 1,450 km of selected existing rural and state roads in tier-one states. Sub-component 1.2 (Original total Cost: US$9.7 million; IDA: US$9.7 million) financed design studies, safeguard assessments, upgrading and/or rehabilitation costs and related supervision activities for approximately 65 river crossings (culverts and small bridges) on rural roads in tier-one states. 13. Component 2 - Community-Based Maintenance (CBM) and Annual Mechanized Maintenance (original total cost: US$38.4 million; IDA: US$25.7 million; sub-national counterpart funds: US$12.7 million). This component financed the maintenance of the roads rehabilitated under Component 1, and a few pilot roads to build up the maintenance system while the roads are being rehabilitated. Pilot programs were initiated in each one of the tier-one states for up to 50 km of rural roads rehabilitated through other means. Subcomponent 2.1 financed permanent routine maintenance performed by communities living alongside the rehabilitated roads organized in "maintenance groups". Subcomponent 2.2 financed Annual Mechanized Maintenance to be performed at the end of the rainy season, through global maintenance contracts contracted out to the private sector or through force account. 14. Component 3 - Project Management and Strengthening of State and Federal Road Sector Institutional, Policy and Regulatory Framework (original total cost US$11.6 million; IDA US$11.6 million). This component financed a comprehensive institutional development package at the state and federal levels to: (a) support an effective implementation of the project (including through technical audits, whenever needed); (b) design and implement sound rural transport policies; (c) improve the planning and execution of public expenditures in rural transport; and (d) promote the dissemination of best practices, as well as to prepare a possible scaling up of the project in tier one and tier two states. Sub-component 3.1 (Original total Cost US$7.6 million; IDA US$7.6 million) planned to finance activities in tier-one states, including: (a) preparation or updating of prioritization studies and Global Information System (GIS)-based road inventories; (b) day to day administration, financial management, procurement, environmental and social safeguards management, 2 For the ICR, the term “roads” is used to describe feeder rural roads that connect rural areas to markets or main (federal) trunk roads. Page 13 of 78 The World Bank NG-RURAL ACCESS & MOBILITY PROJECT-Phase 2 (P095003) and monitoring and evaluation of project activities at the state level; (c) technical assistance for road asset management, including road condition monitoring and support to road planning and maintenance policies; (d) development of rural transport regulations (including heavy vehicles' weight control, road ownership), establishment of sustainable road data management systems and preparation of Intermediary Means of Transport (IMT) strategies ; (e) technical assistance for reform of state road sector institutions, including institutionalization of the SPIU within states' organizational chart for rural roads' management and coordination with eventual state road maintenance agencies; (f) institutional support and training to local governments (e.g. on safeguards enforcement, fiduciary management, governance and accountability, infrastructure planning); and (g) technical assistance for ensuring stakeholders and civil society participation in processes that assure road quality, efficiency of works, transparency and social inclusion. Sub-component 3.2 (Original total Cost US$4.0 million; IDA US$4.0 million) planned to finance activities at the federal level, including: (a) day to day administration, financial management, procurement, and monitoring and evaluation of project activities at the federal level; (b) technical assistance for monitoring of non-participating states and preparatory activities for program's scaling up; (c) technical assistance for dissemination of lessons learnt and best practices; (d) baseline and impact evaluation surveys; and (e) development of federal policies for the improvement of rural transport and its alignment within federal transport policies. 15. Unallocated funds (Original total Cost US$27.0 million; IDA US$18.0 million; AFD US$9.0 million). Unallocated funds represent about nine percent of the project's total funds and was used to finance contingencies (financial and physical). These contingencies proved to be essential in responding quickly to unforeseen needs encountered during implementation. B. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING IMPLEMENTATION 16. The project was restructured twice: (i) A restructuring dated December 28, 2018 (thereafter referred to as “R18”); and (ii) a restructuring dated September 30, 2020 (thereafter referred to as “R20”). The PDO, outcome targets, and PDO Indicators remained the same while there were changes in costs, to enable project to face loss in currency exchange or unforeseen expenses to meet the challenges posed by insecurity. Other Changes during the restructurings 17. Change in Components and Cost. Table 1 displays the changes in Components and Costs. Table 1: Revision to the Cost of Components From Appraisal to December 2018 From December 2018 Restructuring to Closing Restructuring Actual Cost at December 2018 Cost at September 2020 estimate Components Cost at Appraisal Actual Cost at Closing Restructuring Restructuring at R2 Total Total Total Total Source of funds IDA AFD Bor. (a) IDA AFD Bor. (b) IDA AFD Bor. (c) IDA AFD Bor. (c) 1. Rehabilitation 111.7 51.0 0.0 162.7 111.8 51.0 0.0 162.80 121.52 60.00 0.00 181.52 133.69 60.0 0.0 193.69 107% 2. Maintenance 25.7 0 12.7 38.4 25.8 0.0 14.4 40.16 21.53 0.0 14.36 35.89 12.68 0.0 14.36 27.04 75% Page 14 of 78 The World Bank NG-RURAL ACCESS & MOBILITY PROJECT-Phase 2 (P095003) 3. Management, Inst. Strengthening 11.6 0.0 0.0 11.6 11.6 0.0 0.0 11.60 13.37 0.0 0.0 13.37 16.95 0.0 0.0 17.0 127% Refinancing of PPA 3.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 3.00 2.82 0.0 0.0 2.82 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0% Contingencies 18.0 9.0 0.0 27.0 17.8 9.0 0.0 26.80 0.00 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 100% Total Project Cost 170.0 60.0 12.7 242.7 170.0 60.0 14.4 244.36 159.24 60.00 14.36 233.6 163.32* 60.0 14.41 237.73 146% * Due to the fluctuation between the SDR, the currency of the designated account and the U.S dollar during the disbursement period, the exchange rate was adjusted resulting in a loss of SDR 931,026.03 (equivalent to US$1,336,944.07). The amount of US$ 2,680.91 was cancelled on May 24th, 2021 on the closure of the Credit Account. 18. Change in Implementation Schedule. While keeping the principle of cost sharing between IDA funding and counterpart for Community-Based and Annual Mechanized Maintenance, R18 revised the scheduling of this arrangement as: “100% for expenditures incurred through June 30, 2019; thereafter 50% for expenditures incurred through June 2020; and thereafter 0%” in place of “100% for expenditures incurred through June 30, 2015; thereafter 50% for expenditures incurred through June 30, 2017; and thereafter 0%”. 19. Reallocation between Disbursement Categories. R18 and R20 proceeded with a reallocation of project funds: - R18 proceeded to fund reallocation to use the unallocated amount of US$17.8 million amongst the six other expenditure categories. - R20 proceeded to fund reallocation for two reasons: (i) to meet the shortfall from loss in currency exchange between USD and SDR; and (ii) to increase fund for project management, including to provide safety due to security challenges that arose during implementation of the project in the participating states. RAMP-2 lost about US$10.76m due to USD depreciation against SDR since the beginning of the project in 2012. Kidnapping, community clashes, armed robbery and banditry were also at increase in the country, and the need to provide funds to protect lives and properties of the project activities became necessary. Therefore, funds was provided to Component 3 to increase vigilance on RAMP-2 offices and road construction sites in the participating states. 20. Extension of the closing date. There were two extensions of the closing date: R18 extended the closing date by 22 months from December 31, 2018 to October 30, 2020; R20 further extended the closing date by 2 months from October 30, 2020 to December 31, 2020. 21. Revision of intermediate indicators. R20 proceeded with the revision of intermediate indicators as detailed below: Table 2: Revision of Intermediate Indicators (R20) Indicators Revision Rationale Intermediate Results - Component 2: Community-Based Road Maintenance and Annual Mechanized Maintenance 2. Kilometers of rural roads receiving efficient, Annual Target revised from 1650 to Due to delays in road rehabilitation Mechanized Maintenance 900 Km works, it was estimated that about 750 km could not be completed because of lack of time before project closing and subject to Annual Mechanized Maintenance before project closing. Intermediate Results - Component 3: Project Management and Strengthening of Road Sector Page 15 of 78 The World Bank NG-RURAL ACCESS & MOBILITY PROJECT-Phase 2 (P095003) 1. Kilometers of roads in “tier-2” states with design studies Dropped The concept of tier 2 states was completed itself abandoned 2. Number of “tier-1” and “tier-2” states with GIS-based Revised to exclude “tier-2” Same as above road inventory states 3. Number of “tier-1” states that adopted the Low Volume New indicator This new indicator aimed at Manual for management of its rural roads Target was set to 2 States monitoring the achievement of the sustainability part of the PDO Rationale for Changes and Their Implication on the Original Theory of Change 22. The changes undertaken at R18 were in response to the need to address the time lost during the early years of implementation. The project became effective 14 months after approval3, the first disbursement was made in February 2014, and road rehabilitation works were launched about 30 months behind schedule. The midterm review in 2016 led to agreed strong corrective actions but the implementation was very slow. By 2018 strong traction in implementation of the actions had been well established. This was evidenced by substantial improvements in attaining better quality works and improved disbursement rate. The encouraging pace of implementation by 2018 suggested a positive outcome and a better chance to reach the PDO, therefore the request for an extension of the closing date was granted. At the time of the restructuring, the Enugu state achieved a low 15.8 percent of physical work completion due to initial implementation and governance challenges, while security challenges in Adamawa state slowed the completion rate by 38 percent. In comparision, Osun and Niger stood at 65.5 percent and 51.5 percent, respectively. R18 also modified the Implementation Schedule of the financing for the Community-Based and Annual Mechanized Maintenance to account for delays. 23. In 2020, as the revised project closing date approached, a new restructuring was undertaken to allow for the completion of works in all four participating states and institutional reforms under Component 3. The R20 responded to the need to overcome the initial implementation delays. By August 2020, when the restructuring paper was prepared, overall implementation progress stood at 83 percent and IDA disbursement at 88.5 percent. R20 also responded to additional delays caused by the restriction taken by the government to stop the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. 24. Overall, the changes did not modify the outcomes or the Theory of Change. The changes addressed the implementation challenges (delays, cost overruns) and the loss of currency exchange between USD and Special Drawing Rights (SDR). I. OUTCOME A. RELEVANCE OF PDOs Assessment of Relevance of PDOs and Rating 25. The PDO remained relevant throughout the project life cycle and contributed to the project’s relevance in the current World Bank Group’s Nigeria Country Partnership Framework for FY2021 -25. At appraisal, the PDO was 3 The Nigeria Completion and Learning Review (FY14-FY19) notes “One critical factor that impacted on the CPS implementation was the persistent lag in project effectiveness because of delayed approval of the Borrowing Plan by the National Assembly, negatively impacting the country’s capacity to absorb allocated IDA resources on time and realize lending targets”. Page 16 of 78 The World Bank NG-RURAL ACCESS & MOBILITY PROJECT-Phase 2 (P095003) fully consistent with the World Bank Group’s Nigeria Country Partnership Framework for 2010 -2013 as RAMP-2 was expected to contribute to maintaining non-oil growth (theme 1) by reducing infrastructure constraints and supporting productivity gains in the agriculture sector, which accounts for the greatest share of Nigeria's non-oil economy. The project was expected to contribute to improving governance (theme 2) at state level through the selection process for participating states based on the CPS governance criteria. The Country Parternship Strategy FY14-FY19 notes the contribution of the project for the satisfactory achievement of the Strategic Cluster 1 Federally led Structural Reform Agendas for Growth and Jobs. RAMP-2 contributed to ”improve road transportation and connectivity of rural markets” (Outcome 6) and that “the project helped promote social and economic inclusion, especially for women and youth”. The current World Bank Group’s Nigeria Country Partnership Framework for FY2021-25 Complementary Priority # 5 Enhance connectivity and support development of economic corridors and cities as livable growth poles identifies poor connectivity as severe limit to the development of business and agriculture in rural areas. The relevance of the PDO was confirmed throughout the project. When it was necessary to adapt to the changing circumstances, the Bank carried out restructurings without having to modify the PDO. 26. RAMP-2 contributed to sustain World Bank and French Development Agency support to the rural road sector in Nigeria, through two subsequent projects. In 2016, RAMP-2 was scaled up to Imo State. The PDOs are similar to the parent project. This scale up is funded by the French Development Agency for US$ 60 million, and the World Bank is in charge of the technical, fiduciary and safeguards review and implementation support, under a fee- based service agreement. In February 2020, a Rural Access and Agricultural Marketing Project (RAAMP) was approved by the World Bank, with co-financing from AFD for a total amount of US$ 575 million and covering 13 states. The RAAMP includes the core features of RAMP-2 and has enriched it with innovations to increase post harvest productivity and marketability of farm products. In summary, the relevance of the PDO is assessed as High. B. ACHIEVEMENT OF PDO (EFFICACY) 27. Project efficacy is assessed based on the outcome indicator framework outline in Table 3. For the ICR narrative, the PDO has been split into two parts, one relating to improving transport conditions : PDO 1) Improve transport conditions through rehabilitating key rural transport infrastructure in a sustainable manner ; and the other relating to bringing sustained access through maintenance and institutional strengthening: PDO 2) bring sustained access to the rural population through maintaining key rural transport infrastructure in a sustainable manner . Table 3: Assessment of Achievement of Each Objective/ Outcome4 - aggregated level PDO Level Result Indicators Baseline Original Actual Comments Outcome Outcome Target 1) Direct project beneficiaries 0 1,581,000 2,217,000 End target was (number), of which female 50% 50% exceeded by 46% (percentage) 2) Roads in good and fair condition as a 0 6 8 End target was share of total classified roads exceeded by 33% (percentage) 4 Results disaggregated by State are presented in Annex 1.C Page 17 of 78 The World Bank NG-RURAL ACCESS & MOBILITY PROJECT-Phase 2 (P095003) 3) Increase of share of rural population 0 10 15 End target was with access to an all-season road exceeded by 50% (Rural Access Indicator) 4) Roads receiving adequate levels of 0 1,650 2,239* End target was maintenance (Km) exceeded by 35% * ISRs and Aide-memoire report 599 km achieved, 36% of target. See discussion paragraph 27. PDO 1) Improve transport conditions to the rural population through rehabilitating key rural transport infrastructure in a sustainable manner • Outcome rating : High 28. The project increased transport conditions and improved access to the rural population through the rehabilitation of 1,939 km drainage or spot improvement of 311 km and the construction of 98 river crossings, totaling 2,249.7 km of improved roads. At completion, the classified road network reached a proportion of 8 percent in good and fair condition (Outcome indicator 2: Roads in good and fair condition as a share of total classified roads ; original target of 6 percent). As detailed in Table 4, all targets were exceeded. For river crossings, the project exceeded the original target of 65 built to reach 98 due to an efficient use of ressources and an exchange rate gain between the US$ and Naira. Table 4: Physical Achievement under Component 1.1: Road Upgrading/Rehabilitation (km) Activity Adamawa Enugu Niger Osun Total Road Rehabilitation stage 1 169 110.33 176 214.14 699.47 Road Rehabilitation stage 2 270.70 270.1 403 325.73 1,269.53 Total Rehabilitation 439.70 380.43 579 539.87 1,939 Original target 340 370 370 370 1,450 Spot Improvements/ Rehab. of 65 37.29 118.95 89.50 310.74 culvert access roads Grand Total 504.70 417.68 697.5 629.37 2,249.7 Table 5: Physical Achievement under Component 1.2: River Crossings (Culvert and Small Bridges) Activity Adamawa Enugu Niger Osun Total Original target (number) 16 16 16 17 65 Achievement (number) 19 23 30 26 98 29. The project exceeded its target of direct project beneficiaries (2,217,000 against a target of 1,581,000), of which female (50%). This result was calculated by the ratio of inhabitant per kilometer used during project appraisal. The appreciation of USD provided extra funds for all the RAMP States and this enabled the States to far exceed the initial targets set for the numbers set for Components 1.1 and 1.2. The above translated to construction of more kilometers of roads which thus increased the number of beneficiaries from 1,518,000 to 2,217,000 (46% Page 18 of 78 The World Bank NG-RURAL ACCESS & MOBILITY PROJECT-Phase 2 (P095003) increase). 30. The project increased the share of rural population with access to an all-season road by 15 percent. (Outcome indicator 3: original target of 10 percent). The survey5 showed the increase in the proportion of participant households (78.5%) who live within 2km of an all-weather road from the baseline (49.6%). Osun state showed a marginal increase of 7.7% while the other three states showed at least a 30 percent increase in the proportions - Adamawa state had a 35.1% increase; Enugu state had a 39.0% increase and Niger state had a 30.5% increase. Follow on survey further showed that a little more than 50% of respondents in the treatment group access an all- weather road within 10 minutes. Almost 60 percent of respondents in Adamawa state, almost 40 percent in Enugu state, more than 70 percent in percent in Osun state had access to an all-season road within 10 minutes. There was a 25.7% decrease from the baseline in the people that faced difficulties accessing an all-weather road. There was a 44.8% decrease from the baseline in Adamawa state, 21.1% in Enugu state, 25.4% decrease in Niger state and an 11.3% in Osun state. PDO 2) bring sustained access to the rural population through maintaining key rural transport infrastructure in a sustainable manner • Outcome rating: High 31. The project's results framework indicates that only 599 km have been maintained. The outcome indicator “(iv) Roads receiving adequate levels of maintenance” was not clearly defined and led the FPMU to report only mechanized maintenance and not routine maintenance. However, the 1,650 km target for this indicator can be construed as broken down into two parts: the 1,450 km planned for rehabilitation works financed under Component 1.1 plus the 200 km of Community-Base Maintenance (CBM) pilots (50 km per state). This ICR considers that routine CBM should have been accounted for since such maintenance works improve the passability of the road intervened and this contributes to improve connectivity in the project area. Table 6 indicates that 2,239.61 km were maintained, whether it was routine or mechanical. The ICR therefore considers that the target of 1,650 km under “adequate level of maintenance” has been reached, and even exceeded. Table 6: Physical Achievement under Component 2.1: Maintenance Activity Adamawa Enugu Niger Osun Total Pilot Community-Based Road 57.7 50 47.2 61 215.9 Maintenance Community-Based Maintenance 169 110.33 175.74 214.14 669.21 Stage 1 Community-Based Maintenance 305.07 270.1 393.54 311.33 1,280.1 Stage 2 Total (1) 531.77 430.43 616.48 586.47 2,165.15 Original target 340 370 370 370 1,450 Pilot Annual Mechanized 46 0.0 47.2 30.7 123.9 Maintenance 5 The FPMU carried out a follow-on survey in 2020 over a period of one month and interviewed 4,619 households, both in treatment and control groups and transporters and had 18 focus groups discussions. More details are presented in Annex 7. Page 19 of 78 The World Bank NG-RURAL ACCESS & MOBILITY PROJECT-Phase 2 (P095003) Annual Mechanized 85.4 0.0 175.74 214.14 475.28 Maintenance Stage 1 Total (2) 131.4 0.0 222.94 244.84 599.18 Grand Total 504.07 417.68 688.49 629.37 2,239.61 32. The CBM sub-component had a significant impact on the communities located along the rural roads/river crossings rehabilitated/reconstructed or upgraded in all the four (4) participating states. These impacts include number of days work generated by routine maintenance activities stage 1, stage 2 and pilot roads and proportion of these days performed by women or young people, direct and indirect income/small businesses, etc. The CBM groups were constituted by a total of 2,445 people of which 1,719 are men and 726 are women (30%). Each maintenance team member had the responsibility of maintaining 1km and were mobilized 250 days in a year. Therefore, this activity generated a total of 541,000 days of work (works over the 2,164km of rural roads/river crossings that received efficient permanent routine maintenance). Table 7: Number and Composition of CBM Groups per State Community-Based Adamawa Enugu Niger Osun Total Maintenance Groups Number of groups 48 43 58 57 206 Men 497 324 450 448 1,719 202 144 171 209 726 Women (29%) (31%) (28%) (32%) (30%) Total 699 468 621 657 2,445 33. The follow-on surveys show that households have a positive perception toward the condition (good or fair) of improved roads. In Adamawa state, about a third of respondents in the treatment category perceived the road as fair, a significant (33.8%) increase from the baseline, where no respondent perceived the road as fair. Another almost one-fifth of respondents perceived the road conditions as good, a 23.2% increase from the baseline. In Enugu state, most respondents in the treatment category (38.8%) perceived the road conditions as good, a 30.3% increase from the baseline. There was a significant increase from the baseline of those who perceived the road as very good (16.5% in the baseline). There was also a decrease of 35.9% and 10.7% in the very poor and poor categories, respectively. In Niger state, most respondents in the treatment category (58%) perceived the road conditions as fair, a 52.6 percent increase from the baseline. In addition, there was a 70.9% decrease in the respondents who perceived the road as very poor. In Osun state, most respondents in the treatment category (46.9 percent) perceived the road conditions as fair, a 42.1 percent increase from the baseline. In addition, there was a 66.0 percent decrease in the respondents who perceived the road as very poor. 34. Institutional strengthening activities under Component 3 were not all fully completed . The project supported significant technical assistances resulting in the establishment in all participating states of a Road Network Inventory System (RNIS) including state road network maps. The data collected under the system will feed into the ongoing computer-based rural road asset management system (RAMS) that was developed under the project (Nigeria Rural Transport Infrastructure Management System, NiRTIMS). It is not clear if the states can afford this Page 20 of 78 The World Bank NG-RURAL ACCESS & MOBILITY PROJECT-Phase 2 (P095003) commercial software (while free systems exist) and operate it. Other accomplishments on the project include preparation of a Low Volume Roads Manual, comprising of: Low Volume Road Design Manual, Low Volume Maintenance Manual and Low Volume Road Technical Specifications. All the four states adopted the manual, which commit the states to using the manual for management of rural roads. The project financed the development of policy for management and financing of rural roads. Legislation for the establishment of state- level road fund and developing appropriate road maintenance arrangement in the four states was drafted and approved. Adamawa, Niger and Osun agreed to legislate on the creation of a separate agency for rural road management and maintenance with board membership. Enugu state agreed to amend existing law establishing the State Roads Maintenance Agency to include rural road management and maintenance and expand board membership. These activities were carried out in parallel with the activities of components 1 and 2. The technical studies for the rehabilitation works were done before the Manuals were available and therefore did not inform them. Justification of Overall Efficacy Rating 35. The overall efficacy of the project is rated as Substantial. The project was not only able to fully achieve its direct objectives of improving transport conditions but also contributed to provide access to markets, social services, and economic opportunities (discussed in paragraph 44). Efficacy could have been rated high if the sustainability of these investment had been demonstrated and captured. C. EFFICIENCY Assessment of Efficiency and Rating 36. At appraisal, an ex-ante economic analysis was completed for the first batch of 800km of roads based on the Road Economic Decision Model (RED). The analysis estimated the 57 project roads cost benefit Net Present Value (NPV) at US$155.57 million and the Economic Rate of Return (ERR) at 39 percent. 37. At completion, no traffic data was available to run the RED model for economic analysis of the road investment due to the COVID-19 pandemic that had a strong impact on the movement of goods and people and had also restricted the movement of the administration and the PIUs. The data would have reflected a non-representative situation of road use in the absence of the pandemic. It is however possible to compare the actual average costs of rehabilitation with the estimated costs at appraisal for the first batch of roads. At appraisal, rehabilitation costs ranged from US$50,800 per Km to US$165,000 per Km, for an average cost of US$88,076 per Km. In comparison, the actual costs 6 of rehabilitation for the first stage of roads (accounting for 723km) vary from US$ 47,871 per Km in Niger state) to US$ 241,993 per Km (in Enugu state), for an average of US$67,703 per Km. On average, the actual costs were 23 percent lower than the estimated costs at appraisal. In Adamawa and Niger, actual costs were 28% and 27% lower than at appraisal, while in actual costs were higher than estimated in Osun (by 9%) and in Enugu (by 22%). For the second stage of roads (1,259.40 Km), the average rehabilitation costs are US$ 120,965 per Km. The population served by the roads of stage 1 and stage 2 is estimated at 2,217,636. The total cost of rehabilitation of stages 1 and 2 amounts to US$206,191,013.43. Thus, the cost effectiveness (investment per population served) of the rehabilitation works is US$93.0 per person, which is satisfactory. Table 8: Comparison of Investment Costs per Km (stage 1) 6 Average exchange rate between 2015 and 2019 is N243 to US$. Page 21 of 78 The World Bank NG-RURAL ACCESS & MOBILITY PROJECT-Phase 2 (P095003) States Appraisal Actual* Actual per (US$/km) (US$/km) Appraisal Ratio Adamawa 97,406 70,032 0.72 Enugu 95,642 123,098 1.28 Niger 96,936 70,870 0.73 Osun 62,320 68,103 1.09 Average 88,076 67,703 0.77 * Average appraisal or actual costs of all works contracts in each State 38. To sustain the benefits of the rehabilitation activities, the project planned, under Component 3 to strengthen the road sector institutional, policy and regulatory framework at the state and federal levels. The cost of these consultancies, for the Development of State Policy Framework (US$177,581), the Nigerian Rural Transport Infrastructure Management System (NRTIMS) and Construction Site Monitoring System (CosMos) (US$79,657), the development of the Low Volume Roads Manual, Low Volume Roads Maintenance Manual and Low Volume Roads Technical Specifications Manual (US$ 429,652) are in line with standard costs for associated consulting services. Lastly, the administrative costs of the FMPU and the SPIUs account for about 5% of the total budget, which is also reasonable and satisfactory. 39. Based on the evidence provided, the project efficiency is rated Substantial. D. JUSTIFICATION OF OVERALL OUTCOME RATING 40. The overall outcome rating of the project is Moderately Satisfactory. Based on the combined ratings of Relevance of PDO as High, Efficacy as Substantial and Efficiency as Substantial. E. OTHER OUTCOMES AND IMPACTS 41. Gender. As part of project preparation, a gender study was conducted to assess the challenges and opportunities for the mainstreaming of gender concerns in the use of, access to and maintenance of roads. A gender action plan was prepared and incorporated to the Federal Project Implementation Manual (FPIM) with the objectives to: (i) integrate the participation of different groupings of women; (ii) use gender sensitive language and imagery in all relevant manuals and documentation; (iii) carry out community sensitization with community leaders, men and women to explain the value added which women’s participation can bring to the process and why it is important; (iv) develop gender specific indicators for the RAMP-2 monitoring and evaluation templates; (v) adapt some of the best practices from the FADAMA7 or similar projects, to encourage women to engage as groups of women rather than as individuals; provide specialized training for women based on already identified capacity deficits; showcase the benefits of the RAMP-2/FADAMA project in the lives of selected women in the community who are also respected as female gatekeepers; and setup RAMP-2 maintenance groups and appointing women as heads. 42. As presented in para 29, maintenance groups were composed on average by 30 percent of women. The follow-on survey showed an increased school enrolment by 10% and increase of access to health facilities as well as presence of health personnel in the project zone. The impact on households of the induced increased income for women and improved access 7 The FADAMA project is a national initiative, which was conceptualized to increase food security and reduce rural income poverty by maximizing the use of available irrigable lands (called ‘Fadamas’ in Hausa language) along major river systems.8 The First National Fadama D evelopment Project (Fadama I) was designed in the early 1990s to promote simple and low- cost improved irrigation technology under World Bank financing using a community-driven development approach. Page 22 of 78 The World Bank NG-RURAL ACCESS & MOBILITY PROJECT-Phase 2 (P095003) to social services has been assessed through an Impact Evaluation8 led by the World Bank Development Impact Evaluation Initiative (DIME) team. The DIME study is assessing the effect of the rural road construction on local development outcomes, looking at a range of relevant welfare and well-being factors. The study followed a difference-in-differences design (DD), thus estimating the impact of the intervention by comparing the change over time in outcome variables for the treatment and comparison groups. Baseline and follow-up surveys provided qualitative data that informed this ICR. The end report will be available by December 2021. Institutional Strengthening 43. As described in paragraph 34, the project financed the preparation of important technical and regulatory documents to provide states with standards for rural road construction and rehabilitation (Low Volume Road Design Manual, Low Volume Maintenance Manual and Low Volume Road Technical Specifications). The results of the other activities undertaken, however, are more mixed, as they had not been fully implemented by the time the project was closed.The diagnostic study Consultancy services for Institutional and Capacity Assessment studies (2014) does not seem to have led to concrete actions and the funding and management of maintenance have not been sustainably addressed in the four participating states. Despite the availability of GIS-based road inventory and of Road Asset Management Systems (RAMS), the capacity of local authorities remains weak and has not been sufficiently strengthened by the project. Mobilizing Private Sector Financing 44. Although the project was not specifically designed for mobilizing private sector financing, it helped foster a better business environment for potential private investments. Given the country’s context, the project was not specifically designed for mobilizing private sector financing. Nonetheless, it has contributed to improving conditions for potential private investments by farmers and other investors. For instance, the follow-on survey reported several developmental projects springing up on the Osi-Sooko road to Ara-Joshua corridor such as petrol stations and modern buildings, and 18 percent reduction in agriculture post-harvest loss and a 15-25 percent increase in agriculture activities. It is conceivable that better access between markets, villages and these plots has encouraged these investments and allowed for a faster transfer of agricultural goods to markets. Poverty Reduction and Shared Prosperity 45. The Project provided local communities with employment, revenue-generating activities, and economic opportunities. Some qualitative assessment of the project impact on communities can be extracted from the household survey carried by the FPMU in 2020. The project contributed to generating revenues from the employment of unskilled and skilled workers, the sale of materials used for works, and from the ensuing indirect economic activity generated in the localities from these new revenue streams. The project improved all-weather access to services, logistics, and economic activity in the connected areas : the proportion of households living within 2km of an all-weather road increased from 49.6 percent to 78.5 percent in the intervention area; the proportion of respondents that took 30 minutes or longer to get to markets, school and health facilities reduced from 22 to 10.7 percent and 23.5 to 15.9 percent, respectively (see more details in Annex 7). The positive impact of road works most cited by respondents is the all-weather access allowed by safe river crossings during the rainy season. All-weather accessibility ensures better access to health, education, and economic centers serviced by improved roads, and therefore, directly contributes to poverty reduction. Interestingly, the survey observed 8 Nigeria : Impact Evaluation – Rural Access and Mobility (P144852) Page 23 of 78 The World Bank NG-RURAL ACCESS & MOBILITY PROJECT-Phase 2 (P095003) a decrease in the proportion of people walking to access education, work, health, clothing, and worship in favor of a notable increase in the use of one means of transport. The follow-on survey estimates that the project contributed 15 percent reduction in transport cost, and 33 percent reduction in travel time along project roads. Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, there was a 30-40 percent increase in traffic, with motorcycles still being the predominant mode of vehicular transportation but the traffic count reveals that there are significant increases in the number of cars, pick-ups, buses, and trucks on the treatment roads. Also, the use of public bus to access social services increased from 9.9% to 16.1%, showing an increased number of buses servicing the road or an increase in the demand for public transport due to an improved reliability of service caused by the improved transport conditions. The impact on poverty reduction and shared prosperity will be robustly examined in the final report of the Impact Evaluation led by DIME that will only be available in December 2021. II. KEY FACTORS THAT AFFECTED IMPLEMENTATION AND OUTCOME A. KEY FACTORS DURING PREPARATION 46. The project was prepared on the basis on lessons learned of past transport project in Nigeria and of the RAMP Phase 1 in Kaduna. It was also prepared in good coordination with the government and AFD. Its design incorporated lessons learned from RAMP Phase 1: (i) the OPRC approach delayed implementation and was not deemed appropriate for Phase 2; (ii) a well-managed, demonstrative pilot program in rural roads was thought to help leverage resources at the state-level and show how to better spend their own resources; (iii) similarly, the choice to invest in the provision of basic accessibility (such as river crossings) leveraged government resources after RAMP 1 closing; (iv) institutional capacity at the State level being weak in the areas of technical and contract management, extra attention was paid to support SPIUs and local governments; (v) reforms at the State level present a unique challenge and it was thus preferred to focus institutional support on specific tools and manuals. The project also incorporated a readiness strategy into its design to ensure smooth onboarding of participating states and avoid preparation or implementation delays. 47. The project adopted a phased selection process to identify participating states. The selection methodology was agreed with all 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory during a workshop held in Abuja on February 10, 2011. The first phase of the selection - completed in April 2011, was based on the three CPS governance criteria. A total of twelve states - two per each one of the country's six geopolitical zones, were selected at the end of this first phase. The second phase - completed in September 2011, was based on a few project readiness criteria: (a) establishment of a State Project Implementation Unit (SPIU); (b) identification of institutional arrangements and funding sources for road maintenance; (c) preparation of a Prioritized Rural Road Investment Program; and (d) number of km of prioritized roads with completed feasibility studies. A total of four states ("tier-one" states) were selected at the end of this second phase: Adamawa, Niger, Osun and Enugu. It was foreseen that states that passed the first stage of the selection process but not the second stage ("tier-two" states) would constitute a pool of candidate states for an eventual scaling up should additional resources become available during project implementation. Eventually, a scaled-up project to include Imo State was approved by the World Bank in October 2016 and funded by the French Development Agency. The World Bank oversees the technical and fiduciary supervision of activities. The Rural Access and Agricultural Marketing Project (RAAMP) approved by the World Bank in 2020 includes 13 states 9 other than the five RAMP-2 states. The RAAMP includes the core features of RAMP-2 activities and has enriched it with innovations to increase post harvest productivity and marketability of farm products. There is no phased selection process identified for RAAMP as all states were deemed ready for participating at the time of 9 Kano, Katsina, Sokoto, Kebbi, Bauchi, Plateau, Kwara, Abia, Akwa Ibom, Kogi, Ogun, Oyo and Ondo Page 24 of 78 The World Bank NG-RURAL ACCESS & MOBILITY PROJECT-Phase 2 (P095003) Board Approval. B. KEY FACTORS DURING IMPLEMENTATION 48. Initial delays in effectiveness resulted in delays in the implementation. The Project Preparation Advance (PPA) became effective in October 2008 to fund technical studies and safeguards assessments/ framework. After the Board approval on September 25, 2012, the final designs were ready by 2013, but the government decided not to commence with procurement activities prior to the signing of Legal Agreements (LA). The LA was signed in November 2013, and the first batch of procurement was launched in March 2014 for the rehabilitation of about 800 km of roads. 49. Delayed release of counterpart funds at state level impaired supervision and implementation . Except Osun, the three other states did not release sufficient counterpart funding on time. At the end of October 2016 (mid-term review) the total outstanding counterpart funding was Naira 3, 591,869,010. Enugu’s SPIU did not receive funds in 2014, and i ts functioning has been negatively impacted. They were not able to cover operating expenses and payment of compensation under the Resettlement Action Plans. 50. The initial absence of technical capacity at FPMU and SPIUs to supervise the quality of civil works resulted in suboptimal infrastructures. The project lacked good technical resources to review road and bridges designs, supervise the work of the supervision engineer and of construction firms. This resulted in poor performance on the construction supervision consultants in Osun and Niger, and inability to make the design consultants accountable. The absence of material testing arrangements was also identified as an issue as several contractors did not set up quality assurance mechanism. The technical quality of road and infrastructure works of the first stage was in general, unsatisfactory. 51. The security volatile environment disrupted and delayed implementation. Many parts of Nigeria faced security challenges including kidnapping (two cases reported in 2019), social unrest, community clashes, armed robbery, and Boko Haram menace. The World Bank supported all the SPIUs in developing purpose-to-fit security plans to protect contractors, consultants and staff working on RAMP-2. As part of the plan, working hours on construction sites were reduced while extra security (men, materials, and vehicles) to match the level of threat in the states were provided, which resulted in extra costs. In Adamawa state, some works were in the area of intense conflict due to Boko Haram insurgency activities and were not accessible for WB supervision. In 2015, a third-party monitoring was adopted, and the WB/SPIU are meeting outside the Adamawa state with FPMU officials to review status of project implementation progress. 52. The COVID-19 pandemic also delayed implementation . As early as March 2020, the Nigerian Government took several measures to reduce the spread of the pandemic such as lockdown, and closure of interstate travel and international flights. During the period of lock down (3 to 4 months in the four participating states), the construction sites were closed. The contractors could not move materials and equipment to sites due to interstate movement restrictions, and the contractors’ foreign staff outside the country could not come in due to flight restriction. These delays beyond the control of the Government justified the authorization of an extension of the project closing date. III. BANK PERFORMANCE, COMPLIANCE ISSUES, AND RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME A. QUALITY OF MONITORING AND EVALUATION (M&E) Page 25 of 78 The World Bank NG-RURAL ACCESS & MOBILITY PROJECT-Phase 2 (P095003) M&E Design 53. The M&E framework design was simple and captured partially the project outcomes. It was partially revised by R20 to reflect that the concept of Tier 2 states was not applicable (and was dropped), and to better capture the outcome on sustainability through an additional intermediate indicator on the adoption on Low volume manual. The framework could have better captured the expected results on the financing of maintenance since it envisaged a progressive phasing in of local governments. However, the framework only monitored the adoption of the “Low volume road manual” document. The outcome indicator “(iv) Roads receiving adequate levels of maintenance” was not clearly defined and led the FPMU to only report mechanized maintenance and not the routine maintenance. The team should be commended for having included an Impact Evaluation led by the World Bank Development Impact Evaluation Initiative (DIME) team focusing on the robust assessment of the impact of investments in rural roads on welfare and well-being of population. M&E Implementation 54. With a delay of around 30 months before the start of works, mobilization of the M&E staff at the FMPU and SPIU was challenging. With no activities to report for the first four initial years, the PIUs focused on procurement issues and contributed to the demobilization of M&E staff. FPMU and SPIU have not clarified the definition of two intermediate indicators and reported it as vague until project closing (“adequate maintenance”; “young” people involved in maintenance). Furthermore, exogenous events made it challenging for the monitoring and evaluation of the project throughout its life cycle. Project implementation was marked by various insecurity in Adamawa that constrained access to project sites. The SPIU in Adamawa carried on site visits and transmitted findings and real time images to the World Bank. M&E Utilization 55. The M&E framework was useful in providing some evidence of the achievement of targeted outcomes . The information recorded throughout the project life cycle allowed the tracking of progress toward achievement of the PDOs, including roads rehabilitation, maintenance and of institutional outputs. No clear evidence was found to estimate the effective impact of the M&E framework in decision-making. Justification of Overall Rating of Quality of M&E 56. The overall quality of M&E is rated as Modest. The M&E framework presents moderate shortcomings in its design as it does not fully account for the project outcomes. The use and impact of the M&E system were limited to inform decision- making. The Impact Evaluation of the project collected valuable qualitative and quantitative data through 3 household surveys, and the final IE paper to be published in 2021 should contribute to robust demonstration of rural roads investments, and their social and economic impact. B. ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, AND FIDUCIARY COMPLIANCE 57. Safeguards. Four safeguards policy were triggered: Environmental Assessment (OP/BP 4.01), Natural Habitats (OP/BP 4.04), Physical Cultural Resources (OP/BP 4.11) and Involuntary Resettlement (OP/BP 4.12). The project was assigned an Environmental Screen Category ‘B’. An Environmental and Social Management Framework (ESMF), a Resettlement Policy Framework (RPF), one Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA) in each of the four states and one Abbreviated Resettlement Action Plan (ARAP) in each of the four states were prepared, cleared, before effectiveness but not necessarily Page 26 of 78 The World Bank NG-RURAL ACCESS & MOBILITY PROJECT-Phase 2 (P095003) properly disclosed (see Annex 8). 13 EMPs were prepared and disclosed (3 for Adamawa, Niger, and Osun; 4 in Enugu) before effectiveness. Adamawa, Enugu, and Osun states experienced delays in implementing Resettlement Action Plans (RAPs, with 2,423 affected persons compensated for a total amount of Naira123,528,553) occasioned by late release of counterpart funds by State Governments. 58. Significant shortcomings in the implementation of safeguards instruments were observed and addressed with delay. The bidding documents did not include satisfactorily the environmental and social safeguards requirements (issue reported in ISR sequence 10), and contractors and supervising consultant teams did not include the Environmental Social Health and Safety (ESHS) officers. In 2019, the FPMU took corrective actions, retrofitted contracts to include Gender based Violence (GBV) clauses, developed a GBV Action Plan to be implemented with the support of GBV Technical Assistants, recommended the mobilization of E&S staff by firms, and the FPMU developed reporting templates to streamline monthly progress reports. In Osun and Niger States, civil works were almost completed when the hiring of an NGO specialized in the prevention and response to GBV was discussed. An Environmental and Social Safeguards Audit was completed in March 2021 and noted much improvement in compliance and in the performance of the SPIUs and FPMU in E&S responsibilities for stage 2 activities. Improved management approaches and documenting of supervision was noted. The Audit made a list of recommendations presented in Annex 8. 59. The project team successfully completed the GBV retrofitting in 2019. Ensuring that Codes of Conduct (Coc) were developed and included in all contracts and signed by workers; that project staff and all workers received training on CoC and on GBV prevention, that Grievance Redress Mechanism (GRM) were reviewed to address complaints on GBV, awareness raising activities were implemented to sensitize communities, service providers identified to respond to cases, and GBV specialists were recruited in SPIUs. 60. FPMU and SPIUs have rapidly designed effective security plans to respond to the increasing threats. As the security worsened in Nigeria between 2019-2020, some of the construction sites on the project witnessed security challenges, which was promptly addressed. There were two incidents of kidnapping between February and April 2019 involving staff of contractors in Osun and Niger states. In view of these incidences a comprehensive review of security situation and security needs on all sites were developed. This resulted in preparation of security strategy, including development of security management plans at all levels of project implementation with the State Security (Military, Police, Civil Defense) at the core of the implementation. The security strategy implementation in each State was headed by Project Security Coordinator (PSC) while all contractors were mandated to have security focal persons. The RAMP-2 also provided funding to implement the security arrangement, which was not in the original project design. This arrangement provided protection to project staff, contractors, and consultants as well as equipment on project sites. 61. Grievance Redress Mechanism (GRM): A total of 123 complaints were received and duly addressed through the GRM (7 in Adamawa, 50 in Enugu, 17 in Niger, 49 in Osun). Overall assessment is that the GRM functioned well in the reporting and archiving of complaints, but could have, in some cases, been more efficient in responding to complainants and solving the cases. Fiduciary 62. The Financial Management performance of the project is rated Satisfactory . With regards to compliance with the key FM covenants on timely submission of IFRs and annual audit reports, the FPMU and SPIUs performed satisfactorily with the submissions, although with occasional delays. Generally, these reports were reviewed and considered as acceptable to the Bank. There were no overdue IFRs or audit reports at project closing. Project audits were carried out by the Office of the Page 27 of 78 The World Bank NG-RURAL ACCESS & MOBILITY PROJECT-Phase 2 (P095003) Auditor General instead of an independent external audit firm. 63. Procurement performance was rated Satisfactory or Moderately Satisfactory throughout the project life cycle. The capacity of procurement staff of the SPIUs was low and the project had to use the services of external consultants for support at the beginning of the project implementation. The procurement plan was relatively broad and included over 100 contracts per state. These consultants helped to develop procurement capacity in the implementation units overtime and before the end of the project, especially in three states of Osun, Niger and Adamawa States. Enugu was particularly behind due to delay in project implementation in the State and resistant to recruit consultant to support the SPIU. The effect of which was lack of due diligent in review and evaluation of bids. However, the FPMU provided support to the Enugu SPIU that ensure successful completion of the project. C. BANK PERFORMANCE Quality at Entry 64. The project was prepared and appraised consistently with the Bank’s fiduciary role and the country’s strategic vision. The project responded to the vision of the Federal Government of Nigeria for the transformation of rural areas. The project was prepared based on conservative financial planning and economic assessment of its impact. A High-risk rating was selected for both preparation and implementation due to the multiplicity of challenges associated with state level interventions in Nigeria’s federal environment, and the difficulties experienced by other on-going road sector IDA projects in the country. The project tiered design relied on rapid progress of Tier-1 states and sustained interest of states in Tier-2 to join the project at a later stage. This was an optimistic approach and eventually only one state (Imo) benefited from a scale up project, under a different Legal Agreement and the Bank preferred opting for a new project with RAAMP in 2020 to extend to 13 new states. Similarly, the design of phasing out financing of maintenance did not work as planned10. Social safeguards and gender aspects were built in. The safeguard assessment included a gendered approach to guarantee that women’s need and priorities will be adequately considered. The design of M&E arrangements was moderately appropriate and did not require substantive changes other than reflecting dropped approach of tiered states. Quality of Supervision 65. The initial implementation period was characterized by substantial delays, low disbursements, and reflected in a PDO rating of Moderately Unsatisfactory for the first 3 ISRs . This was caused by substantial effectiveness delays (approximately 14 months). The project became effective on November 22, 2013 while the Board’s approval date was September 25, 2012. However, the implementation improved until some other security challenges was encountered. The Boko Haram insurgency and headsmen/farmer clashes in the North-East Nigeria affected implementation in Adamawa State caused considerable security challenges and delay for the project. The insecurity spread to most states in Nigeria. Furthermore, the COVID-19 pandemic had its effect on project implementation as there was movement restriction and locked down in most of the States in Nigeria. In response to the security situation, a local third-party monitoring consultant was hired to support the FPMU and use of remote monitoring tools (Mapillary) was required, which improved project monitoring. Thus, the rating was increased to MS, which remained until closing. 10Initially, the project was to finance 100% of the maintenance work in the first year after completion of the work, 50% in the second year, before the Government took over the work. However, delays in the execution of the work did not allow this approach to be tested and the project financed the maintenance entirely. Page 28 of 78 The World Bank NG-RURAL ACCESS & MOBILITY PROJECT-Phase 2 (P095003) Justification of Overall Rating of Bank Performance 66. The Bank’s overall performance is rated Moderately Satisfactory. While there were moderate shortcomings in terms of quality at entry and quality of supervision, the Bank significantly supported the government in a challenging environment to deliver the positive outcomes. D. RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME 67. The risk to development outcome is high – the reform process of road asset management will take several years to entrench and cannot be achieved in a single project such as RAMP-2. There are few concepts introduced on management of rural roads in the states that need to endure over time before being institutionalized. Furthermore, the 2015-2016 recession, compounded by the effects of the COVID-19 on general wealth and budget accounts put extra fiscal constraint that was not anticipated during RAMP-2 preparation. This could make funding of routine and mechanized maintenance non-priority against the needs of other sectors such as education, health, water & sanitation etc. The newly created institution for management of rural roads needs funding and capacity development which the states may not be able to afford. It would have been appropriate to continue to support this road asset management reform program in the four RAMP-2 states under the new RAAMP. IV. LESSONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS Project design 68. To maximize impact on agriculture, rural roads investments need to be supported by on and off-market interventions. The project selected roads based on their overall network connectivity to markets and social services, and the agriculture potential in the area. These are critical criteria, but roads investments alone cannot tackle mobility issues (service of transport) or agricultural marketing (storage, transformation, marketing). This lesson was incorporated in the design of the Rural Access and Agricultural Marketing Project (RAAMP) approved in February 2020. 69. Criteria for road selection are key determinant of success, for maximizing impact and for mitigating implementation challenges. Rural roads investments need to be properly prioritized based on network planning principles to providing access to high agriculture production areas, filling missing gaps in the entire logistics chain, and facilitating downstream value chains by connecting small family farms to basic rural logistics hubs, agro-processing facilities and logistics parks. The criteria for road selection should be discussed among key stakeholders at the Federal and State levels during appraisal, to ensure alignment of aspirations at both levels and avoid future questioning during implementation phase. The road selection process should also take into consideration of the spatial distribution of project sites, which may create challenges for construction firms in mobilizing equipment and may also make supervision of works by the supervision consultant, the PIU and the World Bank. The sprawl of work sites was identified as one of the causes of work delays. 70. When a project intervenes in diverse geographical areas, a differentiated approach for each state is recommended to best adapt technical responses and budgets. Allocation of resources uniformly among states can lead to inefficient use of available resources. It is recommended to make funds fungible to adapt interventions and technical solutions to each state as local socio economic and geotechnical conditions may require different approaches. Roads were rehabilitated to earth Page 29 of 78 The World Bank NG-RURAL ACCESS & MOBILITY PROJECT-Phase 2 (P095003) road standard, with uniform road width irrespective of traffic levels. In areas with poor quality construction material, and subject to heavy rains, the standard design was not appropriate. The adoption of the Low Volume Road Manuals now provides Federal and State governments guidance on adoption of appropriate pavement standards, taking into account the quality of construction material, the nature of climate, traffic levels and health and safety considerations. This lesson was incorporated in the design of RAAMP with the adoption of a surfacing strategy detailed in the Project Implementation Manual. Implementation 71. The phasing of the road rehabilitation work was intended to allow PIUs to learn in Phase 1 and provide lessons for Phase 2. This approach did not achieve the desired objective because the procurement process for both phases was complex for the PIUs and the FPMU to manage, with their overall capacity remaining low and the challenges numerous. As a result, the efforts of the PIUs remained focused on the preparation and implementation of road works, to the detriment of sector reform activities. This can be explained by the large budgetary share of civil works but also by the greater visibility and direct benefits of the physical achievements for the population. It would have been preferable to treat the sector reform activities with the same energy and priority as the works. 72. In capacity-constrained environments, recourse to Delegated Project Management could facilitate implementation and allow implementing agencies to focus on their core competencies. In other countries, the World Bank has supported the delegation of part of the project implementation to technically qualified organizations. The PIUs benefitted from additional operational capacity, fit-for-purpose technical expertise, and have more time to focus on their project management and oversight role. It is also important to mobilize proven technical and fiduciary skills in the PIUs as this is a key determinant of project success. When recruitments are not based solely on the real skills of the candidates, the entire performance of the project suffers. The Bank may have underestimated the severe capacity constraints at Federal and state level project implementation entities. Mobilizing individual technical consultants to train PIU members on-the-job may provide a short- term solution but wastes time and efficiency. Sustainability 73. The Community-Based Road Maintenance experience has demonstrated the interest of communities in participating in road maintenance and their capacity to perform basic maintenance works . This experience also had an explicit social and gender inclusion aspect and giving women the opportunity to assert their contribution to the community, their ability to take on physical tasks, and their ability to participate in the community's life. It would be worth pursuing this experience and include it in larger program also addressing the specific needs of women in terms of mobility. 74. The project has initiated new practices and provided necessary tools for better road asset management of rural roads in the four participating states, but it is unclear whether the momentum will continue after the project ends. The states have not yet addressed ownership issues by identifying the right institutional arrangement for managing rural roads and this is impeding the undertaking of essential task to establish the institutional base for maintenance, including developing the human resource and building the functional units. Ensuring a stable flow of funding for road maintenance was also not achieved. This is due to competition for resources among different priority sectors in a context of severe fiscal constraints, but also to the unsuitability of a project duration to support the identification and implementation of structural reforms that require legislative and administrative steps. By securing the engagement of the communities, the constituency was created for more effective routine maintenance. The challenge remains to secure the resources needed to sustain the Community-Based . maintenance mechanism. Page 30 of 78 The World Bank NG-RURAL ACCESS & MOBILITY PROJECT-Phase 2 (P095003) ANNEX 1. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND KEY OUTPUTS A. RESULTS INDICATORS A.1 PDO Indicators Objective/Outcome: Improve transport conditions and bring sustained access to the rural population Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Direct project beneficiaries Number 0.00 1581000.00 2,217,000.00 31-Dec-2011 31-Dec-2018 31-Dec-2020 Female beneficiaries Percentage 0.00 50.00 50.00 Comments (achievements against targets): The Project exceeded its target of Direct project beneficiaries (2,217,000 against a target of 1,581,000), of which female (50%). This result was calculated by the ratio of inhabitant per kilometer used for Project appraisal and is explained by the fact that the number of km of roads rehabilitated has also been exceeded. Page 31 of 78 The World Bank NG-RURAL ACCESS & MOBILITY PROJECT-Phase 2 (P095003) Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Share of rural population Percentage 0.00 10.00 15.00 with access to an all-season road 31-Dec-2011 31-Dec-2018 31-Dec-2020 Number of rural people Number 3700000.00 4070000.00 4,081,000.00 with access to an all-season road Comments (achievements against targets): Original target of 10% was exceeded, because the number of km of roads rehabilitated has also been exceeded. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Roads in good and fair Percentage 0.00 6.00 8.00 condition as a share of total classified roads 31-Dec-2011 31-Dec-2018 31-Dec-2020 Size of the total classified Kilometers 15917.00 16872.02 16,409.00 network Comments (achievements against targets): Target was exceeded by 33%. This result is explained by the fact that the number of km of roads rehabilitated has also been exceeded. Page 32 of 78 The World Bank NG-RURAL ACCESS & MOBILITY PROJECT-Phase 2 (P095003) Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Roads receiving adequate Kilometers 0.00 1650.00 2,239.00 levels of maintenance 31-Dec-2011 31-Dec-2018 31-Dec-2020 Comments (achievements against targets): End target was exceeded by 135%. A.2 Intermediate Results Indicators Component: Upgrading and Rehabilitation of Rural Transport Infrastructure Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Roads rehabilitated, Rural Kilometers 0.00 1450.00 2,249.70 31-Dec-2011 31-Dec-2018 31-Dec-2020 Comments (achievements against targets): Target was exceeded by 155% Page 33 of 78 The World Bank NG-RURAL ACCESS & MOBILITY PROJECT-Phase 2 (P095003) Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Number of river crossings Number 0.00 65.00 98.00 constructed 31-Oct-2013 31-Dec-2018 31-Dec-2020 Comments (achievements against targets): Target was exceeded by 151%. Component: Project Management and Strengthening of State and Federal Road Sector Institutional, Policy and Regulatory Framework Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Number of 'tier-1' states with Number 0.00 4.00 4.00 GIS-based road inventory and state road map 31-Oct-2013 31-Dec-2018 31-Dec-2020 completed Comments (achievements against targets): Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Number of 'tie-1' states that Number 0.00 2.00 4.00 Page 34 of 78 The World Bank NG-RURAL ACCESS & MOBILITY PROJECT-Phase 2 (P095003) adopted the Low Volume 21-Sep-2020 21-Sep-2020 31-Dec-2020 Manual for management of rural roads Comments (achievements against targets): Target was exceeded by 200% Component: Community-based Road Maintenance and Annual Mechanized Maintenance Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Kilometer of roads receiving Kilometers 0.00 1650.00 2,239.00 efficient, permanent routine maintenance 31-Oct-2013 31-Dec-2018 31-Dec-2020 Comments (achievements against targets): Page 35 of 78 The World Bank NG-RURAL ACCESS & MOBILITY PROJECT-Phase 2 (P095003) B. KEY OUTPUTS BY COMPONENT Objective/Outcome Improve transport conditions and bring sustained access to the rural population through rehabilitating key rural transport infrastructure in a sustainable manner 1. Direct project beneficiaries (number), of which female (percentage) 2. Roads in good and fair condition as a share of Outcome Indicators total classified roads (percentage) 3. Increase of share of rural population with access to an all-season road (Rural Access Indicator) 1. Roads rehabilitated (Km) 2. Number of river crossings built (No) 3. Kilometers of roads in ‘tier-2’ states with Intermediate Results Indicators design studies completed 4. Number of ‘tier-1’ and ‘tier-2’ states with GIS- based road inventories Component 1 1. 1,929 km of rural roads rehabilitated - Adamawa: 439.07 km - Enugu: 380.39 km - Niger: 569.54 km - Osun: 539.87 km 2. 98 river crossings built - Adamawa: 19 - Enugu: 23 Key Outputs by Component - Niger: 30 (linked to the achievement of the - Osun: 26 Objective/Outcome 1) Component 3 3. 4 GIS based road inventory (in four States) 4. 3 Low volume roads manual prepared and adopted (except Niger) 5. Road Asset Management System (RAMS) prepared 6. Policy study on road maintenance management and financing – UNCOMPLETED 7. Development of rural transport regulations, establishment of sustainable road data Page 36 of 78 The World Bank NG-RURAL ACCESS & MOBILITY PROJECT-Phase 2 (P095003) management systems, preparation of Intermediary Means of Transport (IMT) strategies – UNCOMPLETED 8. Technical assistance for reform of state road sector institutions, including institutionalization of the SPIU within states’ organizational chart for rural roads’ management - UNCOMPLETED 9. Technical Audit civil works (Adamawa and Niger); uncompleted in Enugu and Osun Objective/Outcome 2 Improve transport conditions and bring sustained access to the rural population through maintaining key rural transport infrastructure in a sustainable manner 1. Roads receiving adequate levels of Outcome Indicators maintenance (Km) Component 2 1. Kilometers of rural roads receiving efficient, permanent routine maintenance 2. Kilometers of rural roads receiving efficient, Intermediate Results Indicators Annual Mechanized Maintenance 3. Number of days of work generated by routine maintenance activities, of which proportion performed by vulnerable groups (women or young people) Component 2 1. 2,165 km of rural roads received Community- Based Maintenance - Adamawa: 531.77 km - Enugu: 430.43 km - Niger: 616.54 km - Osun: 586.47 km 2. 599.18 km of rural roads received Annual Key Outputs by Component Mechanized Maintenance (linked to the achievement of the - Adamawa: 131.4 km Objective/Outcome 2) - Enugu: 0 km - Niger: 222.94 km - Osun: 244.84 km Component 3 3. Consultancy services for Institutional and Capacity Assessment studies (2014) – Paulson International Ltd Page 37 of 78 The World Bank NG-RURAL ACCESS & MOBILITY PROJECT-Phase 2 (P095003) f C. Assessment of Achievement of Each Objective/ Outcome disaggregated by State 1. INCREASE IN NUMBER OF DIRECT BENEFICIARIES STATE TARGET ACTUAL KM OF ROAD FOR NO OF KM OF ROADS NO OF NO OF REHABILITATION BENEFICIARIES REHABILITATED BENEFICIARIES BENEFICIARIES (ROAD + PILOT) (ROAD Stage 1&2 + (APPROX) PILOT + SPOT IMP) ADAMAWA 390 728,000 562 1,049,066 1,049,000 ENUGU 420 485,000 468 540,428 540,000 NIGER 420 220,000 735 385,000 385,000 OSUN 420 148,000 690 243,142 243,000 CONSOLIDATED 1,650 1,581,000 2,455 2,217,636 2,217,000 2. ROADS IN GOOD AND FAIR CONDITION AS A SHARE OF TOTAL CLASSIFIED ROADS STATE TARGET ACTUAL KM OF ROAD FOR ROADS IN GOOD & KM OF ROADS REHABILITATED ROADS IN GOOD AND FAIR REHABILITATION FAIR CONDITION (RAMP ROAD Stage 1&2 CONDITION (%) (%) +PILOT+SPOT IMPROVEMENT) ADAMAWA 390 32 562 46 ENUGU 420 20 468 22 NIGER 420 8 735 14 OSUN 420 6 690 10 CONSOLIDATED 1,650 10 2,455 15 3. INCREASE IN SHARE OF RURAL POPULATION WITH ACCESS TO ALL WEATHER ROAD STATE TARGET ACTUAL NO OF BENEFICIARIES SHARE OF RURAL NO OF BENEFICIARIES SHARE OF RURAL POPULATION (%) POPULATION (%) ADAMAWA 728,000 23 1,049,000 33 ENUGU 485,000 15 540,000 17 NIGER 220,000 6 385,000 11 OSUN 148,000 4 243,000 7 CONSOLIDATED 1,581,000 6 2,217,000 8 4. ROADS RECEIVING ADEQUATE LEVELS OF MAINTENANCE STATE TARGET ACTUAL KM OF ROADS UNDER KM OF ROADS UNDER KM OF ROADS UNDER KM OF ROADS UNDER COMMUNITY BASED ANNUAL MECHANIZED COMMUNITY BASED ANNUAL MECHANIZED MAINTENANCE MAINTENANCE MAINTENANCE (stage 1&2 MAINTENANCE (stage 1&2 +PILOT) +PILOT) ADAMAWA 390 390 531.7 131.4 Page 38 of 78 The World Bank NG-RURAL ACCESS & MOBILITY PROJECT-Phase 2 (P095003) (169+305+57.7) (85.4+0+46) ENUGU 420 420 430.43 0.0 (110.33+270.1+50) (0+0+0) NIGER 420 420 616.48 222.94 (175.74+393.54+47.2) (175.74+0+47.2) OSUN 420 420 586.47 244.84 (214.14+311.33+61) (214.14+0+30.7) CONSOLIDATED 1,650 1,650 2,165.08 599.18 Page 39 of 78 The World Bank NG-RURAL ACCESS & MOBILITY PROJECT-Phase 2 (P095003) ANNEX 2. BANK LENDING AND IMPLEMENTATION SUPPORT/SUPERVISION A. TASK TEAM MEMBERS Name Role Preparation Nicolas Peltier-Thiberge Task Team Leader Juan Gaviria Task Team Leader Olatunji Ahmed Transport Specialist Frederick Yankey Senior Financial Management Specialist Akinrinmola Oyenuga Akinyele Financial Management Specialist Joseph Ese Akpokodje Social Specialist Mohammed Aliyu Consultant Manush A. Hristov Senior Counsel Diane Zovighian Social Specialist Daniel Rikichi Kajang Procurement Specialist Paula Lytle Senior Social Development Specialist Aristeidis Panou Counsel Caroline Mary Sage Senior Social Development Specialist Diane Zovighian Consultant Deborah Adedigba Olumolu ET Temporary Shalonda Robinson Program Assistant Chita Oje Program Assistant Supervision/ICR Mohammed Dalil Essakali Task Team Leader(s) Page 40 of 78 The World Bank NG-RURAL ACCESS & MOBILITY PROJECT-Phase 2 (P095003) Olatunji Ahmed Task Team Leader(s) Tesfamichael Nahusenay Mitiku Task Team Leader(s) Bayo Awosemusi, Sunday Esene Osoba, Rahmoune Essalhi Procurement Specialist(s) Akinrinmola Oyenuga Akinyele Financial Management Specialist Eucharia Nonye Osakwe Financial Management Specialist Cindy Ijeoma Ikeaka Social Specialist Michelle Sade Kayosa Ajayi Team Member Rufus Olugbemiga Babalola Team Member Michael Gboyega Ilesanmi Social Specialist Bertrand Murguet Team Member A.K. Farhad Ahmed Team Member Regina Uchenna Okonkwo Procurement Team Sarah Farnuwa Tangalu Team Member Lisa Warouw Team Member Nikolai Alexei Sviedrys Wittich Procurement Team Joseph Ese Akpokodje Environmental Specialist Desta Wolde Woldearegay Procurement Team David Stephen Rudge Road Engineer Abiodun Elufioye Procurement Team Joyce Chukwuma-Nwachukwu Procurement Team Terje Wolden Road institutions advisor Page 41 of 78 The World Bank NG-RURAL ACCESS & MOBILITY PROJECT-Phase 2 (P095003) B. STAFF TIME AND COST Staff Time and Cost Stage of Project Cycle No. of staff weeks US$ (including travel and consultant costs) Preparation FY06 0 1,771.34 FY08 3.059 16,705.44 FY09 8.125 51,053.76 FY10 15.875 99,501.19 FY11 5.301 46,304.09 FY12 31.099 202,015.94 FY13 13.794 61,450.87 Total 77.25 478,802.63 Supervision/ICR FY13 15.849 58,887.16 FY14 32.672 45,561.79 FY15 18.600 67,792.87 FY16 29.073 177,608.68 FY17 38.882 198,653.06 FY18 38.895 332,844.60 FY19 50.973 62,288.52 FY20 65.179 189,283.02 FY21 0 36.97 Total 290.12 1,132,956.67 Page 42 of 78 The World Bank NG-RURAL ACCESS & MOBILITY PROJECT-Phase 2 (P095003) ANNEX 3. PROJECT COST BY COMPONENT Amount at Approval Actual at Project Percentage of Approval Components (US$M) Closing (US$M) (US$M) Upgrading and Rehabilitation of Rural Transport 162.7 193.69 119% Infrastructure Community-based Road Maintenance and Annual 38.40 27.04 70% Mechanized Maintenance Project Management and Strengthening of State and Federal Road Sector 11.60 17.0 147% Institutional, Policy and Regulatory Framework Project Preparation Advance 3.0 0.0 0 Unallocated 27.0 0.0 0 Total 242.71 237.73* 98% * Due to the fluctuation between the SDR, the currency of the designated account and the U.S dollar during the disbursement period, the exchange rate was adjusted, resulting in a loss of SDR 931,026.03 (equivalent to US$1,336,944.07). The amount of US$ 2,680.91 was cancelled on May 24th, 2021 on the closure of the Credit Account. Page 43 of 78 The World Bank NG-RURAL ACCESS & MOBILITY PROJECT-Phase 2 (P095003) ANNEX 4. EFFICIENCY ANALYSIS 1. At appraisal, an ex-ante economic analysis was completed for the first batch of 800km of roads based on the Road Economic Decision Model (RED). The analysis estimated the 57 project roads cost benefit Net Present Value (NPV) at US$155.57 million and the Economic Rate of Return (ERR) at 39 percent. 2. At completion, no traffic data was available to run the RED model. The COVID- 19 pandemic has had a strong impact on the movement of goods and people and has also restricted the movement of the administration and the PIUs. The data would have reflected a non-representative situation of road use in the absence of the pandemic. It is however possible to compare the actual average costs of rehabilitation with the estimated costs at appraisal for the first batch of roads. At appraisal, rehabilitation costs ranged from US$50,800 per Km to US$165,000 per Km, for an average cost of US$88,076 per Km. In comparison, the actual costs11 of rehabilitation for the first stage of roads (accounting for 723km) vary from US$ 47,871 per Km in Niger State) to US$ 241,993 per Km (in Enugu State), for an average of US$67,703 per Km. On average, the actual costs were 6 percent lower than the estimated costs at appraisal. In Adamawa and Niger, actual costs were 28% and 27% lower than at appraisal, while in actual costs were higher than estimated in Osun (by 9%) and in Enugu (by 22%). For the second stage of roads (1,259.40 Km), the average rehabilitation costs are US$ 120,965 per Km. The population served by the roads of stage 1 and stage 2 is estimated at 2,217,636. The total cost of rehabilitation of stage 1 and 2 amounts to US$206,191,013.43. Thus, the cost effectiveness (investment per population served) of the rehabilitation works is US$93.0 per person, which is satisfactory. Table 8: Comparison of Investment Costs per Km (Stage 1) States Appraisal Actual* Actual per (US$/km) (US$/km) Appraisal Ratio Adamawa 97,406 70,032 0.72 Enugu 95,642 123,098 1.28 Niger 96,936 70,870 0.73 Osun 62,320 68,103 1.09 Average 88,076 67,703 0.77 * Average appraisal or actual costs of all works contracts in each State 3. To sustain the benefits of the rehabilitation activities, the project planned, under Component 3 to strengthen the road sector institutional, policy and regulatory framework at the state and federal levels. The cost of these 11 Average exchange rate between 2015 and 2019 is N243 to US$. Page 44 of 78 The World Bank NG-RURAL ACCESS & MOBILITY PROJECT-Phase 2 (P095003) consultancies, for the Development of State Policy Framework (US$177,581), the Nigerian Rural Transport Infrastructure Management System (NRTIMS) and Construction Site Monitoring System (CosMos) (US$79,657), the development of the Low Volume Roads Manual, Low Volume Roads Maintenance Manual and Low Volume Roads Technical Specifications Manual (US$ 429,652) are in line with standard costs for associated consulting services. Lastly, the administrative costs of the FMPU and the SPIUs account for about 5% of the total budget, which is reasonable and satisfactory. ANNEX 5. BORROWER, CO-FINANCIER AND OTHER PARTNER/STAKEHOLDER COMMENTS French Development Agency (AFD) feedback on RAMP-2 project - Working relationships with the World Bank were assessed as good during the project implementation; - More roads upgraded have been recorded which is positive and highly visible for populations but AFD regrets “State Road Maintenance Fund” in each Federated State were not created and no resources were allocated to it. Maintenance is a global issue in Nigeria, and these funds would have had a demonstrative long-term effect to maintain rehabilitated infrastructures. AFD hopes that “State Road Management Agency” in each Federated State (Adamawa, Niger, Osun, Enugu) will take this up to ensure investment sustainability; - Project impacts rating is today “moderately satisfactory”, but from AFD’s point of view it could be rated as “satisfactory” as the project was implemented in a difficult context (approval process by Nigerian institutions at the beginning was slow resulting in a delayed project implementation, security situation with kidnappings, covid-19). For these reasons, AFD would like to commend World Bank team, FPMU and SPIUs teams for their capacity to adapt and react accordingly all along the project implementation to these adverse situations. Perspectives - RAMP-Imo has not recorded any progress toward creation of neither the “State Road Management Agency “ nor the “State Road Maintenance Fund”. However it is agreed that this activity will be included in the new RAAMP project for RAMP-Imo, while Road Management Agency is now a condition precedent to the second drawdown for the 13 participating States to RAAMP. This will need particular follow-up from project teams. Page 45 of 78 The World Bank NG-RURAL ACCESS & MOBILITY PROJECT-Phase 2 (P095003) ANNEX 6. BORROWER ICRR EXECUTIVE SUMMARY EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Overview The overall objective of RAMP-2 ICRR is to review the implementation of RAMP-2 in the participating states and FPMU from concept, appraisal to end of implementation on 31st December 2020, develop a report that details the achievements of project outputs and outcomes, project impacts, the issues and challenges during project implementation as well as lessons learned. In accordance with the approved terms of reference and the consultant service agreement, the consultant visited the participating States of Adamawa, Enugu, Niger and Osun and held several meetings with State Project Coordinators and the core staff of respective SPIUs and FPMU to review implementation progress/achievements of the project components/subcomponents including factors that hindered progress of implementation, lessons learnt and suggestions on the way forward – next phase. The draft final ICRR was presented in a workshop to key stakeholders’ representatives from the participating SPIUs and FPMU in attendance on 2nd February 2021. (1) PROJECT CONTEXT, GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL OBJECTIVES AND DESIGN At appraisal in 2012 under RAMP 2, it was estimated nationally that more than 50% of the population live in the rural areas with 47% rural accessibility to all season roads, resulting in more that 30 million rural inhabitants for whom the nearest road is further than 2 kilometers. Thus, many rural communities have little or no access to basic public services such as education and health. Rural productivity and economic opportunities, especially in agriculture, were hindered by inefficient rural transport infrastructure and high transportation costs. FGN adopted the National Policy on Rural Travel and Transport, which had been prepared w i t h t h e support of the Sub-Saharan African Transport Programme (SSATP). The Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (FMA&RD) commenced the implementation through Rural Travel and Transport programme (RTTP). The RTTP was further supported by the First and Second Rural Access and Mobility Projects (RAMP-1 and RAMP-2), which were implemented at the state level in RAMP-1 in Kaduna and Cross River States and later in RAMP-2 in Adamawa, Enugu, Niger and Osun States. RAMP-2 is co- financed by the World Bank and the French Development Agency (AFD) to further support the Federal Government of Nigeria’s Rural Travel and Transport Policy (RTTP). Intervention Areas, Road Selection and Criteria: A road prioritization study was carried out in each of the 4 participating state to prioritize intervention areas that were based on a combination of selection criteria which included the population of the communities living along the links, agricultural production, environmentally sensitive areas, markets and community preferences. Consequently, priority rural roads were further identified within each of the prioritized area, using criteria such as connectivity, traffic levels, rural transport hubs or connection to health and education facilities. Each “tier-one” state used the results from these prioritization studies to come out with a list of about 200 km of rural roads, packaged in three clusters. The lengths of these roads were reconfirmed t h r o u g h field visits Page 46 of 78 The World Bank NG-RURAL ACCESS & MOBILITY PROJECT-Phase 2 (P095003) with a Global Positioning System (GPS). State Selection : A two-pronged state selection process was undertaken by the FPMU in selecting the states that will participate in RAMP-2 from the 36 states and FCT. The first stage of the selection process was completed in February 2011, based on states that meet the CPS governance criteria and 12 states met these criteria, with two states each from the six geopolitical zones. The 2nd phase of the states’ selection process was based on readiness criteria. Four (4) states ("tier- one" states) were selected at the end of this 2nd phase: Adamawa, Enugu, Niger and Osun. Road selection: Furthermore, d u r i n g project preparation, d e t a i l e d design studies, preparation o f bidding documents and safeguards studies were prepared, financed by a Project Preparation Advance (PPA), to enable rehabilitation works of the identified prioritized roads to be ready for procurement of contractors when RAMP-2 is approved by the World Bank Board and AFD. Global Environment Objectives: RAMP-2 was designed to support the three development pillars of the Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) from 2010 to 2013, which focused on three premises to transform and diversify Nigeria’s economy. These include: (a) Improving governance; (b) Maintaining non-oil growth; and (c) Promoting human development. Therefore, RAMP-2 was planned and designed t o support no n-oil grow th by reducing i n f r a s t r u c tu r e constraints/deficits as well as support productivity in the agriculture sector, which accounts for the significant share of Nigeria's non-oil economy. RAMP-2 aligned with the World Bank Group’s Strategy for Africa, particularly with its competitiveness and employment pillar (through assisting Nigeria to diversify its economy) and with its governance and public sector capacity pillar (through improving the capacity of state governments to deliver improved basic services in the transport sector). Project Development Objective (PDO) And Key Indicators: The PDO was to improve transport conditions and bring sustained accessibility to the Nigerian rural populace, through rehabilitating and maintaining key rural transport infrastructure in sustainable manner in four selected states of Adamawa, Enugu, Niger and Osun. The achievement of the PDO was monitored using the following outcome indicators: (i) Direct project beneficiaries, of which female (percentage); (ii) Roads in good and fair condition as a share of total classified roads (percentage); (iii) Share of rural population with access to an all-season road (proportion); and (iv) Roads receiving adequate levels of maintenance (kilometers) The main beneficiaries of RAMP-2 are farmers, small businesses and artisans in Adamawa, Enugu, Niger and Osun states. These beneficiaries include the population of poor rural communities living alongside the roads. From the estimates from the RAMP-2 PAD, the planned number of beneficiaries at end of project in December 2020 in the four states totaled 1,581,000 beneficiaries of which the female percentage is 50% estimated for RAMP-2. At project completion at end December 2020, the actual estimated total direct project beneficiaries from the M&E Report were 2,217,000 of which female is estimated at 50%. Page 47 of 78 The World Bank NG-RURAL ACCESS & MOBILITY PROJECT-Phase 2 (P095003) Project Components: The RAMP-2 has three components as follows: Component 1: Upgrading and Rehabilitation of Rural Transport Infrastructure (Total Cost: US$162.7 million; IDA: US$111.7 million; AFD: US$51.0 million): • Sub-component 1.1 (Total Cost: US$153.0 million; IDA: US$102.0 million; AFD: US$51.0 million) financed design studies, upgrading and/or rehabilitation costs and related supervision activities for approximately 1,450 km of selected existing rural and state roads in 4 States. The IDA & AFD financed all upgrading, supervision and consulting service contracts on a 66.7/33.3%, respectively. • Sub-component 1.2 (Total Cost: US$9.7 million; IDA:US$9.7 million) financed design studies, safeguard assessments, upgrading and/or rehabilitation costs and related supervision activities for approximately 65 selected existing river crossings on rural roads in 4 States. Components 2: Community-based Road maintenance and annual mechanized maintenance (Total Cost: US$38.4 million: IDA: US$25.7 million; sub-national counterpart funds: US$12.7 million): • Subcomponent 2.1 Permanent routine maintenance performed by communities living alongside the rehabilitated roads, organized in "maintenance groups". • Subcomponent 2.2 Annual mechanized maintenance - to be performed at the end of the rainy season, would be performed either through global maintenance contracts contracted out to the private sector or through force account. Component 3: Project Management and Strengthening of State and Federal Road Sector Institutional, Policy and Regulatory Framework (Total Cost US$11.6 million; IDA US$11.6 million): To address institutional capacity gaps at the sub national level (States) with regard to rural road assets' management, as well as at developing and implementing sound rural transport policies. To provide comprehensive institutional development package at the state and federal levels. • Sub-component 3.1 (Total Cost US$7.6 million; IDA US$7.6 million) financed activities in 4 States (this sub-component was financed exclusively from IDA funds). • Sub-component 3.2 (Total Cost US$4.0 million; IDA US$4.0 million) financed activities at the federal level. The other significant changes in RAMP-2 occurred during implementation of Phase 1 of the RAMP-2 when security issues associated with insurgency concerns developed in Adamawa State, which led to abandonment of Lot 2 contract of 30km for several months or years. Additionally, issue of communal clashes between communities developed in other contracts. Other security issues like kidnappings developed in the construction sites of other participating states which resulted in the review of some contracts to accommodate additional costs associated with employment of security consultants and in Adamawa State reviewing and contracting out at much higher cost Phase 1, Lot 2 abandoned contract to a limited liability company owned by the Nigeria Army to execute the revised contract. COVID-19 pandemic also has an impact on ongoing contracts, which resulted in delayed completion. Furthermore, due to security concerns in Adamawa State, the World Bank/AFD supervision and technical missions were relying on third party supervision reports. The lessons learned were reflected in the project design which include: using a prioritization methodology involving local and state-level stakeholders to select rehabilitated roads because rural Page 48 of 78 The World Bank NG-RURAL ACCESS & MOBILITY PROJECT-Phase 2 (P095003) stakeholders were found to have a better knowledge of their transport needs; state selection process encouraged competition amongst the states based on performance and a future project scale-up and expanded benefits; a robust M&E framework was developed during design of RAMP-2, which assisted to monitor outcomes and impacts and influenced project design as well as was aligned with the National Agriculture Transformation Agenda (NATA) for the agriculture sector; maintenance of rural roads poses a difficult challenge in Nigeria, was addressed through different approaches introduced community- based routine maintenance and annual mechanized maintenance in Component 2; road maintenance can become sustainable if there is sustainable financing mechanism put in place; etc. RAMP-2 was approved by the World Bank Board on the 25th August 2012 and became effective on 22nd November 2013. The IDA credit/AFD agreements was scheduled to be closed on 31st December 2018 but was extended to 31st October 2020 due to slow start and significant delays in project implementation in some participating states, it was further extended to 31st December 2020 due to the negative effects of COVID-19 pandemic. The project was restructured to reallocate funds across components and the closing date was also extended by two months from 30th October 2020 to 31st December 2020. Due to major activities not likely to be completed by 30th October 2020. Furthermore, there was increase of funds to Component 1 and 3 to reduce the gap created by loss in currency exchange rate between SDR and USD as well as for project management/security challenges on site. (2) KEY FACTORS AFFECTING IMPLEMENTATION AND OUTCOMES RAMP-2 is relevant and contributed to non-oil growth by reducing infrastructure constraints and supported productivity gains in the agriculture sector, which accounts for the greatest share of Nigeria's non-oil economy. RAMP-2 contributed to improving governance at state level through Community-based maintenance contracts and annual mechanized maintenance program, based on the CPS governance criteria and also aligned with the World Bank's Strategy for Africa. Economic Analysis and Prioritization of Investments At Appraisal: The engineering road design studies for the initial batch of 800 km of rural roads included an economic evaluation study based on the Road Economic Decision Model (RED) for low volume roads. Traffic data: Traffic surveys were performed, as part of the road design studies financed by the PPA, for the initial batch of 800 km of rural roads to be rehabilitated under RAMP-2. Data were consistent with typical observations generally made on rural roads serving access functions in rural areas with dispersed population and agricultural potential. Results: RED simulations were performed for each of the 57 roads that make up the three clusters in each of the four participating states, the traffic data from the actual traffic surveys and the estimated rehabilitation costs per road. During appraisal, the rehabilitation costs in 2012 varied from US$50,800 per km to US$165,600 per km, with average rehabilitation costs of US$87,000 per km. Technical Consideration: RAMP-2 applied the FMW&H’s Highway Design Manual for rural roads with a design speed of 50 km/h, and geometric design parameters of 6m carriageway width, 1.2m shoulder width on both sides of the carriageway and five percent cross fall among others. The design also Page 49 of 78 The World Bank NG-RURAL ACCESS & MOBILITY PROJECT-Phase 2 (P095003) considered it necessary to omit shoulders for economic and cost reasons, and this omission was found to be technically acceptable. Quality at Entry – Preparation and Appraisal: The assumptions made during RAMP-2 design at preparation and appraisal were realistic and reasonable in separating rehabilitation, upgrading, strengthening from maintenance. Due to difficulties experience by rural farmers/dwellers during rainy season to have access to farm, schools, hospitals, markets and other social centers, the project included river crossing as part of the project design. The maintenance activities were further separated into two, namely; community-based routine maintenance and annual mechanized maintenance. Furthermore, Component 3 with two (2) subcomponents 3.1 and 3.2: Project Management and Strengthening of State and Federal Road Sector Institutional, Policy and Regulatory Framework – the component was well itemized into activities for the four States in subcomponent 3.1 and FPMU in subcomponent 3.2. Women from poor rural communities may have different rural transport needs and can also contribute to road maintenance; Specific Gender Action Plan is embedded in the project design through the community- based routine maintenance groups with average of 30% women for each group. Management Structure: FMA&RD is the National Executing Agency with overall responsibility for Project Coordination, scaling up, Support to States, Monitoring and Evaluation through the FPMU. FPMU developed a Project Implementation Manual (PIM) to coordinate implementation activities across the participating States. The FPMU was established to manage the implementation of RTTP, initiate the preparation of RAMP-2 and coordinate all activities related to this and other similar projects. The FPMU reports to the Permanent Secretary (PS)/Chairman, NTSC through the Director of Rural Development. FPMU is headed by a National Coordinator, with extensive knowledge in rural transport infrastructure and proven skills to coordinate RAMP-2 and RAAMP. For administrative purposes, the National Coordinator reports directly to the Permanent Secretary (PS)/Chairman-NTSC, FMA&RD. FPMU has civil service officials in the fields of financial management, internal audit, procurement, contract management, monitoring and evaluation, environmental safeguards, social safeguards, development communication, and engineering and occasionally various technical assistants and have performed moderately satisfactorily. FMARD also established a National Technical Steering Committee (NTSC) to provide the necessary high-­­level oversight functions on the FPMU. State-Level Implementation Arrangements: The States Project Implementation Units (SPIUs) were responsible for the overall management of the project activities within each State (technical guidance, procurement, safeguards, development communication, financial management and reporting. SPIUs were responsible for its own Special Account and the Project Financial Management Unit (PFMU) located at the State Accountant General’s Office. Each SPIU was headed by a Project Coordinator and reports directly to the Permanent Secretary through their various supervisory Ministries. The Permanent Secretary is the Chairman of the State Project Monitoring Committee (SPMC) - SPMC has oversight functions to the SPIUs and were made up of all stakeholder of respective State Ministries were appointed and meets regularly to guide and monitor implementation process. There was effective delegation of management responsibilities to the SPIUs during project implementation - the structure enjoyed adequate autonomy. Page 50 of 78 The World Bank NG-RURAL ACCESS & MOBILITY PROJECT-Phase 2 (P095003) Intervention Strategy: The role of the Federal Government was to coordinate, evaluate, support the States as well as ensure the implementation of the policy while the responsibility for implementation of the projects rests squarely with the participating States. Local Government Areas (LGAs) do not have the capacity to implement such projects but were key stakeholders that were consulted on the choice and implementation of interventions. RAMP-2 was implemented using the three track approaches i.e. RAMP- 2 was implemented through three components already mentioned above. Implementation Procedures: The implementation arrangements were in accordance with the design at appraisal and the approved PIM. IDA/AFD provided credit/funds to the Federal Government of Nigeria, which on-lent the credit to the participating States (Adamawa, Enugu, Niger and Osun) under the same terms and conditions while States’ provided counterpart funding for the project. FMA&RD had the overall responsibility for project coordination, monitoring, evaluation and scaling-up to other states through the FPMU and the FPMU is under the oversight of the National Technical Steering Committee (NTSC). RAMP-2 used existing Project Financial Management Unit (PFMU) in their various states as required in the project agreement in its operations and was a significant Financial Management (FM) strength for the project. Project implementation was moderately efficient, with issue of insecurity due to activities of insurgents, kidnappings and COVID – 19 pandemic in year 2020 affected the project negatively by slowing down implementation speed. The implementation arrangements and management structures and procedures were in accordance with those agreed upon in the credit agreements and at appraisal. The IDA credit and AFD proceeds, with available counterpart funds, were used efficiently to pay for procurement of civil works, maintenance activities, equipment, and vehicles, consulting services, institutional strengthening, reforms and capacity building. Implementation Arrangements and Staffing: RAMP-2 was implemented at the State level through the State Project Implementation Units (SPIUs) which was established for each participating State in RAMP-2 and use of already exiting Federal Projects Management Unit (FPMU) under the FMA&RD at the federal level. Each State SPIU is managing its own Special Account at the Project Financial Management Unit (PFMU), located in the State Accountant General’s office. The SPIUs are the implementer of the project and are responsible for the overall management of project activities within the state (technical guidance, procurement, financial management and reporting). The SPIUs had continuous capacity building and training in various areas. Overall, the performance of FPMU staff/Consultants in oversight, technical (engineering), procurement, M&E, fiduciary, safeguards (environmental and social) have been “moderately satisfactory”. The performance of the SPMCs and SPIUs from project effectiveness to end of project in December 2020 is “moderately satisfactory” based on status and quality of implementation of Phase 1 and 2 of subcomponent 1.1 (upgrading and rehabilitation of rural roads); subcomponent 2.1 and 2.2 (community- based maintenance and annual mechanized maintenance) programs; and subcomponent 3.1 executed from 2014 to 2020. Monitoring And Evaluation (M & E) Design, Implementation And Utilization: M and E design was part of project preparation and the information from the socio- economic prioritization s t u d i e s was used during appraisal to determine baseline data for the results and monitoring framework of RAMP- Page 51 of 78 The World Bank NG-RURAL ACCESS & MOBILITY PROJECT-Phase 2 (P095003) 2. The baseline study was also undertaken which included several indicators used to determine the nature of access to all-weather roads, health, education, energy, work, religion, markets, water, clothes and other basic social assets. The access indicators were measured in minutes used in access, distance covered, comparative social support systems and the requisite financial ability. As the data reveal, many respondents spend considerable time in traveling to obtain essential services, such as food, education, and health care. FPMU commissioned a Follow-on Socioeconomic Survey which was carried out in Adamawa, Enugu, Niger and Osun States and the survey results carried out after intervention/rehabilitation of the rural road and river crossings (Phases 1 and 2) indicated that a remarkable proportion of households (communities) of mostly farmers, are living within 2km or 25 minutes walking distance from an all- weather road over the baseline, evidently influenced by t h e p o s i t i v e changes in the trips patterns, conditions of the roads, vehicular traffic, transportation costs and increased agricultural outputs. The SPIUs of Adamawa, Enugu, Niger and Osun States, FPMU as well as the World Bank/AFD Team used the M&E data extensively for strategic decision-making, especially during the periodic implementation supervision meetings. Safeguards and Fiduciary Compliance: Environmental and Social Safeguards: In summary, most safeguard issues in Adamawa, Enugu, Niger and Osun states were resolved satisfactorily during project implementation. All SPIUs and the FPMU have designated officers for managing environment and social safeguards. All prepared ESIAs, ESMPs, RAPs, and ARAPs for all roads were cleared and disclosed in Nigeria and World Bank web sites. The states made efforts to settle all reported grievances in their various states satisfactorily. The ESMPs and ARAPs were prepared and implemented as part of the engineering design of Phase-2 roads during project implementation. Action Plans was developed as part of the Phase 1 draft Safeguard Audit and mitigation measures in the participating states (Adamawa, Enugu, Niger and Osun) - The Safeguard Audit for Phase 1 is still ongoing. Financial Management: The financial management system provided reasonable assurance that the WB/AFD credit/loan proceeds were used for the intended purposes and accordingly, the compliance with financial management covenants of the Financing Agreement is found to be satisfactory. Each State’s SPIU managed its own Special Account at the PFMU, located in their respective State Accountant General’s office. The Financial Management arrangements in areas of planning and budgeting, accounting, internal controls, funds flow, financial reporting and auditing systems throughout the project life, were satisfactory. Planning & Budgeting: Each participating states’ SPIU operated with an approved budget and work plan each year during project implementation. Budgets were followed and were reviewed periodically. Accounting and External Audit: Relevant books of accounts were maintained by the SPIUs and adequate documentations/explanations were obtained. Project used the flexible accounting software. Page 52 of 78 The World Bank NG-RURAL ACCESS & MOBILITY PROJECT-Phase 2 (P095003) An external accounting firm commissioned by FPMU carried out the audit for 2014. In 2015 the Office of the Auditor General of the Federation (OAGF) directly audited the project - The OAGF carried out the independent consolidated audited financial statements from 2015 to 2020. All the Financial Statements, which are in agreement with the books of account, present a true and fair view of the financial position of RAMP-2 and its performance, and operations, changes in net assets, its cash flows for the years ended 31st December 2015, 31st December, 2016, 31st December 2017, 31st December 2018 and 31st December 2019 and were prepared in accordance with the International Public Sector Accounting Standards (IPSAS) accrual, accounting principles generally accepted in Nigeria and in the manner required by the World Bank. Funds Flow and Counterpart Funds: The SPIUs maintained all the relevant bank accounts, which were active. The participating States’ total counterpart fund contributions from all the participating State Governments from 2012 to 2020 is Naira 5,176,522,160.00. Procurement: The FPMU and the SPIUs in Adamawa, Enugu, Niger and Osun States followed the applicable World Bank “Procurement Guidelines”, and “Consultant Guidelines” to implement RAMP-2 procurements. FPMU had a qualified and experienced Procurement Officer who was assigned to the FPMU from the FMA&RD. Each SPIU from tier-one states appointed, after a competitive selection process, one procurement specialist to work full-time for the project. SPIUs procurement specialists received procurement training from the World Bank with additional guidance and technical assistance from the FPMU Procurement Specialist. Procurement plans were regularly updated on annual basis during the annual workshops and procurement clinics. There was adequate and appropriate procurement planning leading to transparent, efficient and economic procurement as evidenced by the Phases 1 and 2 and river crossing contracts within budget. Post-Completion Operations And Next Phase: Institutional Capacity - FPMU, SPIUs of Adamawa, Enugu, Niger and Osun State and staff of the various State Ministries’ supervising the SPIUs benefitted immensely in the training and capacity building programs in procurement, M &E, project management, etc. during project implementation. Sustainability - There was significant delay in implementing institutional reforms as envisaged under the project in Sub-Component 3.1. FPMU engaged an Individual Consultant for technical support on Component 3 to ensure progress and sustainability of the RAMP-2 investments (Components 1 and 2). The major issues identified for the slow progress of Component 3 was the absence of a road sector specialist in RAMP-2 for almost 5 years after project effectiveness with the requisite knowledge to provide the understanding, clarity and guidance on the implementation of Component 3.1. However, the various four participating State Governments are at different stages of implementation of the institutional reforms that will ensure sustainability of the RAMP-2. Next Phase: The next phase of RAMP-2 has been improved with the inclusion of rural agricultural marketing and the new project is called Rural Access and Agricultural Marketing Project (RAAMP). The development objective of the new RAAMP in thirteen (13) States which does not include the RAMP-2 States is to improve rural access and agricultural marketing in participating states while strengthening Page 53 of 78 The World Bank NG-RURAL ACCESS & MOBILITY PROJECT-Phase 2 (P095003) the financing and institutional base for effective development, maintenance and management of the rural road network. (3) ASSESSMENT OF OUTCOMES: In 2007, it was estimated that less than half of the rural population was living less than 2 km away from an all-weather road (Rural Accessibility Index of 47 percent) - about 30 million Nigerians at that time live in near isolation and lack access to income-generating opportunities and social services”. The rehabilitation/spot improvements/rehabilitation of culvert access road for a total of 2,240km of rural roads and 98 Nos. River crossings in Adamawa, Enugu, Niger and Osun States as well as the institutional strengthening, and rural road sector reform activities under the project contributed to the achievement of the PDO. Relevance of Design and Implementation: The three components of the project were appropriately linked to the PDO. However, the Institutional Strengthening and Rural Road Sector Reforms subcomponent was very slow and late in implementation. The design of the implementation structure and institutional arrangements was sound, where the SPIUs have the overall responsibility for the overall implementation and management of the project activities (technical guidance, procurement, financial management and reporting). Gaps in Institutional Development and Reform Component: Some activities as envisaged in the PAD in Sub-components 3.1 were not completely implemented especially institutional road reform due to the late start of the activities of Component 3.1 in all the four states (Adamawa, Enugu, Niger and Osun). SUMMARY OF PROJECT ACHIEVEMENTS: The achievements on the implementation of Components 1, 2 and 3 in Adamawa, Enugu, Niger and Osun states led to the achievement of the Project Development Objective. The project achieved substantially and even surpassed most of the results towards the PDO with the following outcomes: S/ PDO Indicators Baseline Planned end target Project end Remarks N Achievement 1. Direct Project Beneficiaries, of which 0% 1,581,000/50% 2,217,000 /50% Achieved 40% above females (No. / %) planned end target 2. Share of rural population with access to an 0% 6% 8% Achieved 33% above all-season road (Rural Access planned end target Indicator) (%point) 3. Number of rural people with access to all 3,700,000 5,281,000 5,917,000 Achieved 13% above season roads (Number, Custom planned end target Supplement) 4. Roads in good and fair condition as a share 0% 10% 15% Achieved 50% above the of total classified roads (%) planned end target 5. Size of the total classified 17,367km 17,846km 17,846km Achieved 3% was achieved network (Kilometer) above the planned target 6. Roads receiving adequate levels of 0 km 1,650km 599km Achieved 36% of planned maintenance end target at project end. *This KPI was not clearly defined for easy assessment because once a road is fully rehabilitated, mainly routine maintenance activities will be required for such roads. Page 54 of 78 The World Bank NG-RURAL ACCESS & MOBILITY PROJECT-Phase 2 (P095003) The intermediate results indicators at base line, target value at the end of the project and actual value achieved at project end on 31st December 2020 are as follows: Comp Intermediate Sub-Component Baseline Planned Actual Project Remarks onents Indicators end target end Achievement 1. Upgrading and Rehabilitation of 1.1 Rural Roads 0km 1,450km 1929km surpassing the planned target Rural Transport Infrastructure Rehabilitated (km) by 33%. With spot improvement/rehab. of culvert access road (km) included, the Project achieved 2,239.61km 1.2 Number of River 0 65 Nos 98 Nos surpassing the planned target Crossings constructed by 51%. (No.) 2. Community-based Road 2.1: Kilometre of 0km 1,650km 2,165km surpassing the planned target Maintenance and Annual roads receiving by 31%. Mechanized efficient, permanent Maintenance routine maintenance 2.2: Kilometre of 0km 1,650km 599km Achieved 36% of the planned roads receiving target efficient, mechanized annual maintenance 3. Project Management & 3.1: Number of "tier- 0 4 4 Achieved 100% of the Strengthening of Federal & State 1" states with GIS- planned target Road Sector based road inventory Institutional, Policy & Regulatory and state road map Framework completed (No.) 3.2 Number of "tier-1" 0 2 3 Achieved 50% more than states that adopted the planned target Low Volume Manual for management of its rural roads (No.) The sub-component 2.1 had a significant impact on the communities that are situated along the rural roads/river crossings rehabilitated/reconstructed or upgraded in all the four (4) participating states and the states in general. The actual kilometre of rural roads/river crossings receiving efficient permanent routine maintenance as at 31st December 2020 was 2,164km which translates to 2,164 members for 250 days and total of 541,000 days of work generated by routine maintenance. However, it is worthy of note that this component of the project engaged even more members of the beneficiary communities as a total of 2,437 maintenance team were engaged to manage 2,164km of roads, of which 1,711 are males and 726 are females which translates to average of 30% females. Note that the above routine maintenance numbers do not capture the proportion of young people who are youths among them. As provided in the indicator the “Number of days of work generated by routine maintenance activities, of which proportion performed by women and young people”. Sub-Component 3.1 and 3.2: Some activities under Sub-component 3.1 were carried out jointly between FPMU and the SPIUs e.g. technical audit; financial audit; safeguards audit; development and sensitization of Low Volume Road Manuals; Policy on rural roads maintenance management and financing and Page 55 of 78 The World Bank NG-RURAL ACCESS & MOBILITY PROJECT-Phase 2 (P095003) preparation for road asset management system. Activity/Comp Adamawa Enugu Osun Total Niger onent 3.1 Sub-Component GIS based road Complet Completed Completed Completed Completed inventory ed Low volume roads 3 out of 4 manual preparation and Completed Completed No Completed Completed adoption Technical Audit civil Complet works (Adamawa & Completed Completed Completed Completed ed Niger) Technical Audit civil Still in Still in Still in Progress Still in Progress works (Enugu & Osun) Progress Progress Policy Study on road maintenance Still in Still in **Still in Still in progress Still in progress management and progress progress progress financing Preparation for Road Complet Asset Management Completed Completed Completed Completed ed System EFFICIENCY: The project’s operations and procedures is rated “Moderately Satisfactory”. The total costs involved in achieving the project in the four (4) participating states include the IDA and AFD funding of approximately US$215.75 million as at 31st December 2020 while counterpart-funding contributions from the four participating States was a total of N5,076,522,160 as at 31st December 2020 Economic and Financial Analysis: At appraisal, the rehabilitation costs vary from US$50,800 per km to US$165,600 per km, with average rehabilitation costs of US$87,000 per km. However, the actual average rehabilitation cost per kilometer was also assessed for Adamawa, Enugu, Niger and Osun State and compared with the cost per kilometer used at appraisal and it revealed as follows: States Phase Actual Average Total Cost of Actual Average Actual Analysis Km of Rehabilitati Rehab Rehabilitation Average Roads on Cost @ Cost Rehabilitation Rehabili Appraisal Cost tated equivalent in USD Adam Phase 169km US$87,000 N2,876,014,611.36 N17,017,837.94 US$70,032.25 about 20% awa 1 per km per km @ N243 to cost per km less than the USD average rehabilitation estimated costs at appraisal Phase 270.07k US$87,000 - - - - Page 56 of 78 The World Bank NG-RURAL ACCESS & MOBILITY PROJECT-Phase 2 (P095003) 2 m per km Enugu Phase 110.33k US$87,000 N4,769,020,303.12 N43,225,054.86 - Cost per km 1 m per km per km is inclusive of a section of asphalt overlay (49.11km) Phase 270.059 US$87,000 - N35,789,670.91 US94,183.34 slightly above 2 km per km per km @ Av per km (8%) the N380 to USD average rehabilitation costs Niger Phase 175.74k US$87,000 N3,043,752,115.02 ₦17,319,631.93 US$77,993.44 10% less than 1 m per km per km per km the average Phase 393.54k US$87,000 N8,195,758,672.20 ₦20,825,732.26 US$68,057.95 about 22% 2 m per km per km @ Av per km less than the N306 to USD average Osun Phase 214.14k US$87,000 N3,614,011,723.98 N16,876,864.31 US$73,377.67 about 16% 1 m per km per km @ Av per km less than the N230 to USD average Phase 325.73k US$87,000 N8,634,211,803.49 N26,507,266.15 US$77,280.66 about 11% 2 m per km per km @ Av per km less than the N343 to USD average JUSTIFICATION OF THE OVERALL OUTCOME RATING: Overall, the Outcome Rating of “Moderately Satisfactory” is reasonable for the following reasons: The PDO was substantially achieved; The Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) were substantially achieved and in most cases exceeded; other reasons/justifications for the assessment have been provided in the main report. Over-Arching Themes, Other Outcomes And Impacts: Socio-Economic Surveys - The follow-on survey results carried out after intervention/rehabilitation of the rural road and river crossings (Phases 1 and 2) indicate that a remarkable proportion of households (communities) of mostly farmers, living within 2km or 25 minutes walking distance from an all-weather road over the baseline, have evidently been influential in changing the trips patterns, better conditions of the roads, higher vehicular traffic, reduced transportation costs and increased agricultural outputs. The follow-on surveys included but not limited to: Socio-economic conditions of beneficiaries; Perception of road conditions; Income and savings; Access to social services, Access to markets; Agricultural commercialization (access to inputs, share of crops sold; proportion of crops lost due to lack of transportation, etc.); and Transport service characteristics. Overall, household incomes were better this year (2020) than last year (2019) about the same month across all four RAMP -2 states with Enugu State showing the highest increase in the ₦20,001 to ₦40,000 income bracket, followed by Osun State in the ₦60,001 to ₦80,000 income bracket, then Adamawa State in the ₦20,001 to ₦40,000 income bracket. Niger State showed a marginal increase in the ₦1001 to ₦20,000 income bracket, however, Niger has the most even spread of respondent households across income brackets. These positive income differentials are attributable to the RAMP-2 road improvement and rehabilitation in the four states. Accessibility – Indicators identified in the baseline study determined respondents’ access to all-weather roads, health, education, work, religion, markets, water, clothes, and other basic social amenities. These access indicators were measured in minutes. Access indicators covered include: Page 57 of 78 The World Bank NG-RURAL ACCESS & MOBILITY PROJECT-Phase 2 (P095003) • Proximity of Households to All-Weather Road (Key indicator) • Access to All-Weather Roads • Perception of Present Road Conditions (Key indicator) • Means of Access to Social Services (Key indicator) • Time to Access Social Services (Key indicator) • Access to Water: -­­ Dry Season Access -­­ Wet (Rainy) Season Access Detailed summary of the follow-on surveys results and focus group discussions (FGDs) are provided in the main report. (4) ASSESSMENT OF RISKS AND MITIGATION TO OVERALL IMPLEMENTATION At project preparation, appraisal and implementation a high- risk rating was selected due to the several challenges associated with state-level interventions in Nigeria, as well as the difficulties experienced by other on-going IDA projects in the road sector in Nigeria. It was expected that states will not progress at the same pace during implementation due to differences in capacity but also due to institutional and/or security constraints. The institutional support provided by the FPMU under sub-component 3.2 was to be customized in order to focus on those states that show early signs of implementation delays. The risks include: – Stakeholders’ risk rated high - This risk was mitigated when the National Assembly validated RAMP-­­2 into Nigeria’s 2012 borrowing plan; – Implementing agencies risk in capacity and governance rated high – This risk was mitigated at SPIUs by clear accounting and internal control procedures including chart of accounts established and documented in the project's operational manual; etc; – Project design risk rated high - The project design risk was mitigated through preparation of sound road design studies, following best international practices and with due attention paid to cost effectiveness. Community-­­based maintenance pilot programs were launched in the 4 states, with particular progress observed in Osun and later Niger, Adamawa and Enugu. FPMU promoted experience sharing and peer learning amongst the four participating states. – Social and environmental risk rated low - The low risk was mitigated as ESMF and RPF were prepared for RAMP-2 including ESIAs and ARAPs for the road segments identified for both Phase 1 and Phase 2 road rehabilitation contracts. Technical road standards based on best engineering and sound environmental management practices. All the participating states carried out specific safeguards studies to identify the right instruments (ESIA, ESMP, RAP, ARAP) for each road rehabilitation works. – Program and Donor risk rated low - This low risk was mitigated by the close partnership early in project preparation with systematic joint missions between IDA and AFD. Furthermore, AFD already negotiated its bilateral agreement with FGN. – Monitoring and sustainability risk rated high- This risk on monitoring was mitigated by consistent monitoring and evaluation of the projects in each of the four participating states, FPMU hired a consultant to carryout baseline surveys early during implementation before midterm review and Page 58 of 78 The World Bank NG-RURAL ACCESS & MOBILITY PROJECT-Phase 2 (P095003) lastly in October 2020. The FPMU and the SPIUs beefed-up it’s engineering staff to enhance its supervision during the implementation of the Components 1 and 2. (5) ASSESSMENT OF WORLD BANK/AFD AND BORROWER PERFORMANCE: The assessment of World Bank / AFD and Borrower performance are as follows: S/ Assessment Specific Area Specific Overall Remarks n Rating Rating 1. World Bank/AFD Performance Ensuring Moderately Moderately During preparation, most missions included members with Quality at Satisfactory Satisfactory appropriate skill mix; provided assistance in securing the PPF Entry for project preparation; conducted consultative preparation processes in the 4 RAMP 2 states and Federal levels (FMA&RD, FMF, FPMU as well as other critical key stakeholders’) Supervision Marginally Held supervision and technical missions at periodic intervals Satisfactory (at least twice a year); skill mix during supervision/technical missions did not include M&E Specialist and Institutional Development Specialist; when security became an issue, virtual meetings/reliance on third party verifications as well meetings were held in Abuja Borrower Performance Government Moderately Moderately Showed commitment during project preparation and Performance Satisfactory Satisfactory cooperated fully with the World Bank/AFD Task Team; All (FMARD, the necessary reviews and approvals were obtained to expedite FMF, State project preparation; relationships between the FPMU, various Government) State Ministries responsible for rural roads, and the SPIUs were normal and cooperative; Significant achievements were recorded in the implementation of Components 1 and 2; Sub-Component 3.1 with institutional reforms and capacity building lagged far behind Implementing Moderately Staff of FPMU/SPIUs of the participating states exhibited Agencies/Uni Satisfactory moderate level/understanding of management, coordination ts and supervision; good overall project Performance achievements/performance; staffs employed for the project (FPMU/SPIU were adequate at FPMU and SPIUs, supported by various s) Technical Assistants/Consultants at various periods of implementation (6) LESSONS LEARNED AT PROJECT PREPARATION AND PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION: The lessons learned at the project design stage and project implementation stage as follows: a) The role of FPMU in project management is important in the success of project result and there is need for more synergy between the SPIUs and FPMU especially in the areas of road policy reforms, mobility aspects understanding by the states and problem/bottlenecks solving. As observed in RAMP-2 during implementation, there was significant delay (6 years) in development and implementing the activities under Component 3.1, due to unclear and limited background as well as knowledge of road sector issues in FPMU/SPIUs (especially road sector reforms and mobility aspects). b) Adequate sensitization and synergy is required between FPMU/WB/AFD and key stakeholders at the State level in order to ensure that robust criteria are developed for the prioritization studies in line with the aspirations of State Governments/Local Governments and the corresponding Communities. c) More thought and rigorous analysis should be given during preparation to make the PDO Level Results Indicators and the Intermediate Results Indicators simple to monitor and evaluate by the various SPIUs and FPMU. Having too many indicators to monitor the PDO and intermediate results makes the process Page 59 of 78 The World Bank NG-RURAL ACCESS & MOBILITY PROJECT-Phase 2 (P095003) unnecessarily cumbersome and unnecessarily complicated. d) Engineering design studies and preparation of bidding documents and the project lifespan should be programmed in such a way that there is enough time to carry out all the design studies and procure the Contractors ahead of effectiveness of credit/actual implementation of the rehabilitation/construction works. e) Political risks can significantly delay project effectiveness and implementation, for RAMP-2 where it took one year after WB Board Approval before the Nigeria Federal Executive Council (FEC) approved the project. Therefore, political risks should be weighed appropriately during project design to ensure appropriate mitigation measures are included in project design. f) The upgraded/rehabilitated rural roads /river crossings completed under Phase 1 and Phase 2 of RAMP-2 in the four states (Adamawa, Enugu, Niger and Osun States) require regular routine and periodic maintenance to preserve the investments made on these roads and the community-based maintenance groups formed in the participating states should be encouraged, strengthened and funded by the State Governments and expanded to other parts of the various states due to the positive socio-economic impact on the communities. g) Staff/Consultants selection for the various positions in the FPMU/SPIUs should be based on competence and thorough understanding of the key objectives of the project. There should be adequate training for FPMU/SPIUs staff as well as technical support to the SPIUs especially at the early stages of project implementation to rapidly build up their capacity and understanding of the project implementation activities for all components. h) The spatial distribution of the project sites within the states is such that packaging of the Contracts has to be adequate in size for effective and timely execution of the construction works. Therefore, during engineering design and packaging of civil works, procurement should have regards to adequate size/packaging of contracts for efficient and effective implementation. i) Interference by the various State Executives at the State-level in the management and operations of RAMP-2 especially as it relates to procurement issues, unauthorized and forceful use of project operational vehicles from the SPIUs has negative effect on the Project. The FPMU/WB/AFD should fashion out measures to be included in project design to protect project staff in the execution of their duties in the event of such interference. j) There is generally lack of trust between the various communities and state governments in Nigeria and this has resulted in some cases communication breakdown between some of the SPIUs and communities who feel that government project direction might not be sustainable and may have political undertone. SPIUs should ensure and carry out several sensitization workshops during the period of project implementation to gain the trust of the communities and also to encourage them to have a sense of ownership of the projects domiciled in their neighborhood. k) During the latter part of implementation period of RAMP-2, the COVID-19 virus pandemic was not expected or anticipated either during project design or implementation. The Federal Government and Page 60 of 78 The World Bank NG-RURAL ACCESS & MOBILITY PROJECT-Phase 2 (P095003) State Governments took certain measures to reduce the spread of COVID-19 virus pandemic in March / April 2020 which had different levels of negative consequences on several sectors of the economy including the transport sector. Such measures included restriction of movement, imposition of physical distancing in public transport, closure of interstate travel and international flights. Contractors/Consultants were unable to move staff, materials and equipment to site and their key international staff who travelled out of the country could not comeback. As a result, there was significant loss in man-hours, which runs into billions of Naira. With regards to RAMP-2 participating states (Adamawa, Enugu, Niger and Osun States), the lock-down regulations remained in place for a period of four (4) to six (6) months which negatively slowed down implementation of Phase 2 rehabilitation works and the various activities planned for the rural roads sector institutional and financing reforms. Page 61 of 78 The World Bank NG-RURAL ACCESS & MOBILITY PROJECT-Phase 2 (P095003) ANNEX 7. FOLLOW-ON SURVEY ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC DATA: KEY INDICATORS (2020) Household Income Adamawa state: In 2019, most of the respondent households (42.2% treatment, 40.7% comparison, and 38.1% phase 2) were in the ₦1,001 to ₦20,000 bracket, an 11.5% decrease from the baseline. Good portions of households were in the less than ₦1,000 income bracket (26.1% treatment, 31.6% comparison and 19.4% Phase 2), a 23.1% increase from the baseline. Adamawa state had most households in the ₦1,001 to ₦20,000 income bracket followed by the less than ₦1,000 income bracket in 2019. Enugu state: Better in 2020 compare to 2019, showing the highest increase in the ₦20,001 to ₦40,000 income bracket. In 2019, most respondent households (63.2% treatment, 61.2% comparison, 44.5% comparison- intervened, 10.5 percent phase 2) were in the less than ₦1000 income bracket, a 57.0 percent increase from the baseline. There was a 52.2% decrease from the baseline of those in the income bracket of ₦1,001 to ₦20,000. Enugu state had most households in the less than ₦1,000 in the follow -on followed by the ₦1,001 to ₦20,000 and the ₦20,001 to ₦40,000 income brackets in 2019. Niger state: Showed a marginal increase in the ₦1,001 to ₦20,000 income bracket. the numbe rs were more spread out, with the majority (26.3% treatment, 36.2% comparison, 27.7% comparison-intervened, and 24.5% phase 2) being in the ₦1,001 to ₦20,000 income bracket, like the baseline but with lower percentages. There was an increase from the baseline for households in the ₦20,001 to ₦40,000, ₦40,001 to ₦60,000, ₦60,001 to ₦80,000, ₦80,001 to ₦100,000 and the households earning more than ₦100,000. Niger state had households evenly spread out, where the income from the 2019 in the follow-on surpassed the income from the previous year in the baseline in most of the income brackets. Osun state: Better this year compare to last year in the ₦60,001 to ₦80,000 income bracket. Most respondent households (34.8% treatment, 24.3% comparison, 25.4% comparison-intervened, and 23.2% Phase 2) earned more than ₦100,000 in the previous year. By a sharp contrast, the next highest category fell in the less than ₦1,000 income bracket (21.6% treatment, 23.0% comparison, 25.2% comparison -intervened, and 27.6% phase 2), an increase from the baseline. A good portion of households fell in the ₦1,001 to ₦20,000 income bracket in the previous year (17.2%, treatment, 23.6% comparison, 30.7% comparison - intervened and 7.5% Phase 2). Osun state had households evenly spread out, where the income from the previous year in the follow-on surpassed the income from the previous year in the baseline in most of the income brackets. Overall, household incomes were better this year (2020) compare to last year (2019) about the same month across all four RAMP -2 states with Enugu state showing the highest increase in the ₦20,001 to ₦40,000 income bracket, followed by Osun state in the ₦60,001 to ₦80,000 income bracket, then Adamawa state in the ₦20,001 to ₦40,000 income bracket. Niger state s howed a marginal increase in the ₦1001 to ₦20,000 income bracket, however, Niger has the most even spread of respondent Page 62 of 78 The World Bank NG-RURAL ACCESS & MOBILITY PROJECT-Phase 2 (P095003) households across income brackets. These positive income differentials are attributable to the RAMP-2 road improvement and rehabilitation in the four states. Accessibility – Indicators identified in the baseline study determined respondents’ access to all -weather roads, health, education, work, religion, markets, water, clothes, and other basic social amenities. These access indicators were measured in minutes. Access indicators covered include: 1. Proximity of Households to All-Weather Road (Key indicator) 2. Access to All-Weather Roads 3. Perception of Present Road Conditions (Key indicator) 4. Means of Access to Social Services (Key indicator) 5. Time to Access Social Services (Key indicator) 6. Access to Water: - Dry Season Access - Wet (Rainy) Season Access 1. Proximity of Households to All-Weather Road - the follow-on survey showed that most respondents live within 2km of an all-weather road across the treatment, comparison, comparison- intervened and phase 2 groups in all four RAMP 2 states. The baseline, however, highlighted the fact that half of the respondents do not live within 2km of an all-weather road. 2. Access to All-Weather Roads - there was an increase in the proportion of participant households (78.5%) who live within 2km of an all-weather road from the baseline (49.6%). All four RAMP-2 states showed an increase from the baseline. Osun state showed a marginal increase of 7.7% while the other three states showed at least a 30 percent increase in the proportions - Adamawa state had a 35.1% increase, Enugu state had a 39.0% increase and Niger state had a 30.5% increase. Follow on survey further showed that across the four RAMP-2 states, a little more than 50% of respondents access an all-weather road within 10 minutes. Almost 60 percent of respondents in Adamawa state, almost 40 percent in Enugu state, more than 70 percent in percent in Osun state had access to an all-season road within 10 minutes. There was a 25.7% decrease from the baseline in the people that faced difficulties accessing an all-weather road. In Adamawa state, there was a 44.8% decrease from the baseline, 21.1% in Enugu state, 25.4% decrease in Niger state and an 11.3% decrease in Osun state. 3. Perception of Present Road Conditions – In the follow-on survey, most respondents (67.2% treatment, 63.2% comparison, 63.8% comparison-intervened and 65.8% Phase 2) perceived themselves as about the same as others, an increase from the baseline. Overall, in the follow-on survey, most of the respondents perceived their economic well-being as comparable to others, a good proportion perceived themselves as poorer while some perceived themselves as wealthier than others. • Adamawa state: About a third of respondents in the treatment category perceived the road as fair, a significant (33.8%) increase from the baseline, where no respondent perceived the road as fair. Almost one-fifth of respondents perceived the road conditions as poor, a 3.8% increase from the baseline. Another almost one-fifth of respondents perceived the road conditions as good, a 23.2% increase from the baseline. A small percentage (3.1%) perceived the road as very good. This was a Page 63 of 78 The World Bank NG-RURAL ACCESS & MOBILITY PROJECT-Phase 2 (P095003) noteworthy increase from the baseline where no respondent perceived the road as very good. • Enugu state: most respondents in the treatment category (38.8%) perceived the road conditions as good, a 30.3% increase from the baseline. There was a significant increase from the baseline of those who perceived the road as very good (16.5% in follow-on n the baseline). There was also a decrease of 35.9% and 10.7% in the very poor and poor categories, respectively. The positive net gain in Enugu state is seen in the decrease in negative perception of road conditions and increase in positive perceptions, notably a 34.3% differential in the perception of the road as good. This is attributable to the RAMP-2 road improvement and/or rehabilitation in the state. • Niger state: Most respondents in the treatment category (58%) perceived the road conditions as fair, a 52.6 percent increase from the baseline. In addition, there was a 70.9% decrease in the respondents who perceived the road as very poor. The net gain in Niger state is seen in the decrease in negative perception of road conditions and increase in positive perceptions, notably the 21.7 percent increase in the perception of the road conditions as fair. This is attributable to the RAMP road improvement and/or rehabilitation in the state. Respondents in the treatment category in Niger state validated that the road conditions were significantly improved, creating easier access to market, the hospital, and other social services, though they pointed out challenges that still existed with the road. • Osun state: Majority of respondents in the treatment category (46.9 percent) perceived the road conditions as fair, a 42.1 percent increase from the baseline. In addition, there was a 66.0 percent decrease in the respondents who perceived the road as very poor. The net gain is seen in the decrease in the perceptions of the road as very poor, and the increase from the baseline in the positive perceptions of the road conditions, notably the 28.0 percent increase in the perception of road conditions as fair. This is attributable to the RAMP road improvement and/or rehabilitation in the state. FGD participants in the treatment category in Osun state validated that the road conditions were improved. 4. Means of Access to Social Services: • Adamawa state: Walking is the primary means of access to education, work, healthcare and worship, whereas public bus/van is the primary means of access to clothing. Comparatively, this trend is the same as in the baseline; however, there is a decrease in the proportion of those in the treatment group walking to access education (91.5% baseline, 76.6% follow-on) with an increase in those using more than one means (3.9% baseline, 12.3% follow-on). • Enugu state: Walking is the primary means of access to education, work, healthcare and worship, while public bus/van is the primary means of access to clothing, with a close proportion of respondents also walking to access clothing. Comparatively, this trend is the same as in the baseline; however, there is a decrease in the proportion of those in the treatment group walking to access education, work, health, clothing and worship as well as a notable increase in those using more than one means of transport. Page 64 of 78 The World Bank NG-RURAL ACCESS & MOBILITY PROJECT-Phase 2 (P095003) • Niger state: Walking is the primary means of access to education, work, healthcare, clothing, and worship, with public bus/van as a close secondary means of access to clothing. Comparatively, this trend is the same as in the baseline, with minimal change in the proportion of those who walk to access education, clothing and worship, and a slight decrease in those who walk to work and to access health. • Osun state: walking is the primary means of access to education, work, healthcare, and worship, while public bus/vans is the primary means of access to clothing with walking the secondary means of access. Comparatively, this trend is similar to the baseline, with a slight decrease in the proportion of those who walk to access education and an increase in the proportion of those who walk to access work, health, clothing and worship. There was also a decrease in those who use public buses/vans to access clothing. 5. Time to Access Social Services: The time to access social services is a measure of proximity and availability of these services. The baseline highlighted that bad roads condition is the major reason people walk to access social services. The proximity of those services becomes important, particularly for health care centers. Furthermore, in most parts across the RAMP-2 states, access to services is mostly within 10 minutes for school, clothing, worship and work for some while it was 41 minutes for others and, access to food and work was more than 41 minutes. The differences in time and the net gain are attributable to RAMP-2. • Adamawa state: Most respondents in the treatment and phase 2 categories were able to access school, clinic, food and worship within 10 minutes, while access to work and clothing took longer than 41 minutes. This trend is comparable with baseline findings except that at the baseline, an almost equal group of respondents accessed work within 21-30 minutes and more than 41 minutes, with the majority consistent with the more than 41 minutes. The majority also took more than 41 minutes to access a clinic, food, and clothing. • Enugu state: Access to school, work and worship were within 10 minutes for the majority of respondents in the treatment category. Access to the clinic was mostly between 11 to 20 minutes (33.6%) but others also accessed between 21 and 30 minutes (23.7%) and within ten minutes for others (22.7%). Access to food is between 21 and 30 minutes for the majority (26.0%), with others accessing food within 10 minutes (23.9%). Access to clothing takes more than 41 minutes (33.6%) and 21 to 30 minutes (28.8%) for others. In the baseline, access to school and worship for most respondents were within 10 minutes, access to work more than 41 minutes, access to clinic within ten minutes, and access to food and clothing more than 41 minutes. Access to work and food improved between the baseline and follow-on while access to clinic had some improvement with no significant change for access to clothing. • Niger state: For most respondents in the treatment category, the access to school, clinic, food and worship are within 10 minutes, access to work and clothing was more than 41 minutes. For some, access to work was within 10 minutes. In the baseline, access to school, clinic, and worship were within 10 minutes, access to work and clothing were more than 41 minutes, and access to food more than 41 minutes (36%), and within 10 minutes (35.5%). There was no significant change from the Page 65 of 78 The World Bank NG-RURAL ACCESS & MOBILITY PROJECT-Phase 2 (P095003) baseline for access to school, clinic, and worship, the access to clothing improved, and access to food and work seemed to improve for some and not for others. • Osun state: Access to school, clinic, and worship are within 10 minutes, access to food, clothing and work more than 41 minutes. Further, access to work was either within ten minutes (22.9%) or between 11 and 20 minutes (22.9%). In the baseline, access to school, clinic, and worship was within 10 minutes, access to work varied between 10 minutes (28.4%), more than 41 minutes (23.1%) and between 21 and 30 minutes (22.5%). Access to food and clothing were more than 41 minutes. There was no significant change in access to school, food, clothing, and worship from the baseline, a decrease in the time to access clinic services and work for some, and unchanged for others. 6. Access to water: Households have varying access to water sources in both dry and wet climatic conditions. From the baseline, Adamawa state respondents primarily sourced water from dug wells and piped water in-residence or plots elsewhere during both dry and rainy seasons. The trend is similar in Enugu state, although the baseline pointed out that more residents had to fetch water from plots elsewhere during the rainy season. Niger state respondents primarily sourced water from surface water in-residence or a plot elsewhere in both dry and rainy seasons. Osun state residents had water in-residence though the proportion reduced during the rainy season. The follow-on results show that unlike the baseline, most respondents in Adamawa state had their primary water source as piped water during the dry and rainy seasons. In Enugu and Niger states, surface water was the primary source of water both during the dry and rainy seasons. In Osun state, dug wells are the primary source of water in both the dry and rainy seasons. The primary access to water in the dry season is mostly by piped water in Adamawa, surface water in Enugu , and dug well in Niger and Osun states. Other sources of water are dug well in Adamawa, and Enugu, and surface water in Niger and Osun states. All the states appeared to have fair access to varied water sources in the dry and in the wet (rainy) seasons. Transport cost for Agricultural Goods: Agriculture is the predominant occupation in the four RAMP 2 states. The cost of transportation of agricultural inputs and crops for producers affects profit or loss, which ultimately affects their household income and socioeconomic status. Agricultural indicators covered are: • Transport cost for agricultural goods (Key indicator) • Place of sale after road improvement The findings showed that most respondents across the four RAMP states spent between ₦1001 and ₦10,000 to transport their crops to market in the past year. This is similar to the findings from the baseline. In Adamawa and Enugu states, most respondents spent between ₦1001 and ₦10,000. In Osun state, the majority spent between ₦10001 and ₦20,000 while respondents in Niger state spent the most money, which was between ₦20001 to-₦30000. Adamawa state: There was a decrease in the costs of transportation, less than ₦1,000 and ₦1,001 both in the baseline and the follow-on survey. Page 66 of 78 The World Bank NG-RURAL ACCESS & MOBILITY PROJECT-Phase 2 (P095003) Enugu state: There was a decrease in the proportion of respondents who spent less than ₦1000 on transportation from the baseline to the follow-on. There was an increase in the proportion of those who spent between ₦1001 and ₦10000. An increase in the proportion of those spending more than ₦40000 suggests that there was an increase in agricultural production and increased transportation of goods to the market, The net gain for the project demonstrates an increase in the cost of transportation and that the majority of the cost of transportation remained within either less than ₦1000 or between ₦1001 and ₦10000, with associated decreases in cost from the baseline. Niger state: There was a decrease in those who spent ₦1,001 to ₦10,000 in transportation costs, where the majority fell. Osun state: There was a decrease in those who spent between ₦1,001 and ₦10,000 from the baseline to the follow-on, while there was an increase in those who spent between ₦10,001 and ₦20,000. This suggests increased agricultural production leading to increased transportation of goods to the market because of the RAMP-2 rehabilitated access road. Comparison of Key Indicators from Baseline to Follow-on: SUMMARY OF KEY RESULTS Baseline Follow on KEY UNITS Treatment Comparison Treatment Comparison INDICATORS Proportion of households living within 2km or 25 minutes walking distance from an all-weather road 2km/25mins 49.6 47.2 76.8 71.6 Average Naira <₦1000 5.3 3.9 13.2 9.3 monthly ₦1001 - 64.5 60.9 35.1 59.3 Household ₦20,000 income ₦20,001 - 15.1 16.2 28.7 11.0 ₦40,000 ₦40,001 - 8.5 6.1 7.7 10.6 ₦60,000 ₦60,001 - 1.3 4.3 6.5 1.8 ₦80,000 ₦80,001 - 2.5 2.9 4.5 2.8 ₦100,000 >₦100,000 2.8 5.7 4.0 5.3 Access to Minutes 1-10 43.4 38.9 34.7 30.2 nearest health 11-20 19.4 12.1 22.0 17.3 clinic 21-30 13.0 15.4 16.8 17.8 31-40 6.4 4.9 2.3 3.1 41+ 17.1 27.6 16.3 21.4 Page 67 of 78 The World Bank NG-RURAL ACCESS & MOBILITY PROJECT-Phase 2 (P095003) Access to school Minutes 1-10 47.7 40.8 36.7 28.0 11-20 15.1 18.6 18.2 18.4 21-30 12.3 16.7 16.8 17.7 31-40 4.6 2.7 2.6 3.5 41+ 17.4 19.1 9.3 15.4 Means of Walking 67.8 48.6 67.7 68.2 transportation to Bicycles 5.1 6.8 2.6 2.7 social services (all Private Cars 1.1 1.5 1.0 1.7 services Public 9.9 9.7 16.1 17.0 combined) Bus/Van Private 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.3 Bus/Van Animal - - 0.0 0.0 Taxi 0.6 0.2 0.9 0.3 Others 5.3 5.4 - - More than 1 7.1 4.3 11.2 9.9 Perception of Very Poor 75.5 73.7 16.1 47.2 road conditions Poor 15.0 14.6 17.7 24.4 Fair 6.4 4.9 38.7 19.3 Good 2.3 6.1 21.1 6.6 Very Good 0.3 0.7 6.4 2.3 Minutes 1-60 68.9 75.6 48.7 37.3 SUMMARY OF KEY RESULTS Baseline Follow on KEY UNITS Treatment Comparison Treatment Comparison INDICATORS Travel times for 61-120 11.5 6.7 0.5 1.6 entire road 121-240 5.7 2.2 0.5 0.1 Above 240 2.9 5.3 1.2 0.0 minutes Cost of Naira <₦1000 17.7 22.5 10.6 10.9 transporting ₦1001 - 49.9 34.9 46.5 49.3 agricultural ₦10000 produce ₦10001 - 13.9 12.2 19.2 25.7 ₦20000 ₦20001 - 4.9 8.5 9.3 2.0 ₦30000 ₦30001 - 3.1 4.3 1.4 1.1 ₦40000 >₦40000 5.3 14.0 4.4 3.4 Page 68 of 78 The World Bank NG-RURAL ACCESS & MOBILITY PROJECT-Phase 2 (P095003) ANNEX 8: ENVIRONMENTAL AND SOCIAL SAFEGUARDS AUDIT, MARCH 2021 1. Safeguards Instruments Disclosure Status Table 1: Safeguards Instrument Disclosure Date (Stage 1) SPIU Safeguard Title Disclosure Bank Disclosure Link to Document instrument Date Date Adamawa ESMP Environmental and Social September November 10 th, https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/document Management Plan for 2014 2015. s- Prioritized 200km Rural reports/documentdetail/974231468289225526/environme Roads to be ntal-and-social-management-plan-esmp-for-the- Constructed/Rehabilitated prioritized-200km-of-rural-roads-to-be-constructed-and- under LOT 1,2, 3 rehabilitated-under-ramp-2-in-adamawa-state.html ARAP Abbreviated Resettlement September Not found on WB Not found on WB external website Action Plan for Prioritized 2014 external website Construction/Rehabilitation of 200 km Rural Roads to be constructed /rehabilitated (Lot 1& Lot 3) ARAP Abbreviated Resettlement May 2015 Not found on WB Not found on WB external website Action Plan for Prioritized external website Construction/Rehabilitation of 200 km Rural Roads to be constructed /rehabilitated (Lot 1& Lot 3) ARAP Abbreviated Resettlement May 2018 Not found on WB Not found on WB external website Action Plan for Prioritized external website Construction/Rehabilitation of 200 km Rural Roads to be Constructed /Rehabilitated under RAMP-2 Adamawa State LOT 2 Enugu ESIA Detailed Engineering, June, 2012 June 1, 2012 https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/document Safeguard Studies & s- Preparation of Bidding reports/documentdetail/312561468288368610/environme Documents for Prioritized ntal-and-social-impact-assessment-report-for-enugu- Roads in Enugu State under state.html RAMP 2. Environmental and Social Impact Assessment. ESMP Revised and Updated November Not found on WB Not found on WB external website Environmental and Social 2017 external website Management Plan for the Prioritized 143.5km Rural Roads to be Constructed /Rehabilitated under LOT 1, 2, 3 & 4 ARAP Revised and Updated November Not found on WB Not found on WB external website Abbreviated Resettlement 2017 external website Action Plan for the Prioritized 143.5km Rural Roads to be Constructed /Rehabilitated under LOT 1,2, 3 & 4 RAP Updated Resettlement December Not found on WB Not found on WB external website Action Plan 2018 external website Page 69 of 78 The World Bank NG-RURAL ACCESS & MOBILITY PROJECT-Phase 2 (P095003) SPIU Safeguard Title Disclosure Bank Disclosure Link to Document instrument Date Date Osun ESMP Environmental and Social November 10th November, https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/document Management Plan for 2015 2015 s- Construction/Rehabilitation reports/documentdetail/699531468290473240/environme of Prioritized Rural Roads ntal-and-social-management-plan-for-osun-state.html and River Crossings ARAP Abbreviated Resettlement November 10th November, https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/document Action Plan for the 2015 2015 s- Construction/Rehabilitation reports/documentdetail/650481468146380447/abbreviate of Prioritized Rural Roads d-resettlement-action-plan-for-osun-state.html and River Crossings Niger ESMP Revised Environmental and September 10th November, https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/document Social Management Plan for 2014 2015 s- Prioritized 176km Rural reports/documentdetail/595441468098387724/environme Roads to be ntal-and-social-management-plan-for-niger-state.html Constructed/Rehabilitated under LOT 1,2, 3 ARAP Revised Abbreviated November 10th November, https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/document Resettlement Action Plan for 2014 2015 s- Prioritized reports/documentdetail/833841468098962323/resettleme Construction/Rehabilitation nt-action-plan-for-the-prioritized-construction-and- of 176km Rural Roads rehabilitation-of-176-km-rural-roads-for-niger-state.html Table 2. Safeguard Instruments Disclosure Date (Stage 2 and Access/Spot Improvement to River Crossings) SPIU Safeguard Title Disclosure Bank Disclosure Link to Document instrument Date Date Adamawa ESIA Environmental and Social 25th 27th November, https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/document Impact Assessment for September 2019. s- 361.7km of Rural Roads 2019 reports/documentdetail/459781574929861710/environme ntal-and-social-impact-assessment-for-361-7-km-of-rural- roads-in-adamawa-state.html ESMP Environmental and Social 25th 27th November https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/document Management Plan for Spot September 2019 s- Improvement of 65km 2019 reports/documentdetail/240041574921517616/environme Access Roads to 19 Nos ntal-and-social-management-plan-for-spot-improvement- River Crossings in of-65km-access-roads-to-19-numbers-river-crossings-in- Adamawa State adamawa-state.html ARAP Abbreviated Resettlement 25th 27th November, https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/document Action Plan for the September 2019. s- Proposed Rural Roads in 2019 reports/documentdetail/159831574923254004/abbreviate Adamawa State d-resettlement-action-plan-for-the-proposed-rural-roads- in-adamawa-state.html Enugu ESIA Environmental and Social March 2020 30th April 2020 https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/document Impact Assessment (ESIA) s- for 270.059km of Rural reports/documentdetail/647711588243142179/environme Roads in Enugu State. ntal-and-social-impact-assessment-for-270-059-km-of- rural-roads-in-enugu-state.html RAP Resettlement Action Plan March 2020 Not found on WB Not found on WB external website for the Rehabilitation of external website 270km Phase 2 Roads. Page 70 of 78 The World Bank NG-RURAL ACCESS & MOBILITY PROJECT-Phase 2 (P095003) SPIU Safeguard Title Disclosure Bank Disclosure Link to Document instrument Date Date RAP Addendum to the August 2020 Not found on WB Not found on WB external website Resettlement Action Plan external website for the construction of 270.59km phase 2 rural roads in Enugu state. No Safeguards Instrument was prepared for Spot Improvement/Access to River Crossings/Emanating Works. Osun ESMP Rehabilitation and December 25th July, 2018 https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/document Construction of Prioritized 2018 s- Rural Roads and River reports/documentdetail/632531532416921085/environme Crossings in Osun State ntal-and-social-management-plan-for-rehabilitation-and- Nigeria construction-of-prioritized-rural-roads-and-river-crossings- in-osun-state.html ARAP Abbreviated Resettlement July 2018 Not found on WB Not found on WB external website Action Plan for the external website Construction of 307.9km Rural Roads in Osun State ARAP Addendum to the N/A 16th July 2020 https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/document Resettlement Action Plan s- for The Construction of reports/documentdetail/917471594983019596/addendum- 307.9km Rural Roads in to-the-resettlement-action-plan-for-the-construction-of- Osun State 307-9-km-rural-roads-in-osun-state.html No Safeguards Instrument was prepared for Spot Improvement/Access to River Crossings/Emanating Works. Niger ESMP Environmental and Social October 2019 27th November, https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/document Management Plan for 2019 s- Rehabilitation of Rural reports/documentdetail/556941574922016121/environme Roads in Niger State ntal-and-social-management-plan-for-rehabilitation-of- rural-roads-in-niger-state.html ESMP Final ESMP for Spot 6th July, 2020 Not found on WB Not found on WB external website Improvement of 119km external website Rural Roads under RAMP in Niger State. ESMP Environmental and Social 6th July, 2020 11 December 2020 https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/document Management Plan for the s- Construction of 3x15m reports/documentdetail/834221607935652696/environme Span Bridge at km 25+025 ntal-and-social-management-plan-for-the-construction-of- Along Badeggi- 3x15m-span-bridge-at-km-25-025-along-badeggi- Ebbakataeregi Road in ebbakataeregi-road-in-niger-state.html Niger State ESMP Environmental & Social 6th July, 2020 Not found on WB Not found on WB external website Management Plan external website (ESMP) Addendum for Rehabilitation of 10km Tungan Bako Maikujeri Road and Consutruction of 4X15M Bridge at KM 16 + 150 on Suleja-Izom Road in Niger State. ARAP The Abbreviated August 2018 Not found on WB Not found on WB external website Resettlement Action Plan external website (ARAP) for the 403.54km Rural Roads Page 71 of 78 The World Bank NG-RURAL ACCESS & MOBILITY PROJECT-Phase 2 (P095003) 2. Summary of Effectiveness of Grievance Redress Mechanism S/N SPIU GRM 1 Adamawa Grievance Redress Committee (GRC) was constituted across projects locations which consists of community, state and federal representatives. Grievances were channeled through a grievance box positioned at strategic locations within project communities. The SPIU makes use of a grievance logbook to log in in all grievances, from the communities and redresses were made through the GRC. For phase 2 a detailed GRM was prepared, and a Grievance Redress Committees (GRCs) at the state level (includes Permanent Secretary Adamawa State Ministry of Local Government, Permanent Secretary Adamawa State Ministry of Agriculture, President Adamawa Farmers Association, President National Council for Women’s Societies), SPIU levels (Safeguard Officers, Communication Officer and M&E Officer) and 4 persons per communities (inclusive of one female). The SPIU makes use of a grievance logbook to log in in all grievances, from the communities and redresses were made through the GRC. 2 Enugu A Grievance Redress Committee (GRC) was constituted across projects locations which consists of community, state and federal representatives. Grievances were channeled through a grievance box positioned at strategic locations within project communities. The SPIU makes use of a grievance logbook to log in in all grievances, from the communities and redresses were made through the GRC. A sequence of five steps was prepared to give aggrieved PAPs easy access to redress. The five-step sequence is further elaborated as follows: Step 1: Dissatisfied PAP forwards complaints to Resettlement and Compensation Team Step 2: Intervention by PC/ Resettlement/Compensation/Grievance Committee Step 3: Intervention by National Office Step 4: Appeal to Enugu State Citizens’ Right and Mediation Centre Step 5: Reference to Court of Competent Jurisdiction 3 Osun • Grievances were channeled through a logbook provided at the site office. • No feedback boxes made available • No GRC formed at the level of the community It was stated that the logbook was reviewed as soon as there was a complaint however, The SPIU also stated that they had no grievance recorded 4 Niger • Grievances were aired through feedback boxes that were made available in all the project communities. • There was no institution of a community based GRM So far, the feedback boxes are not a very effective means of communicating and addressing grievances as some stakeholders interrogated disclosed that it takes 4-6weeks for the SPIU to receive and address their grievances they posted via these feedback boxes. 3. Recommendations 1. Livelihood Restoration - Where there is a need to go beyond indicative budgets as prescribed in the Resettlement Action Plan, there should be sufficient documentation to explain the reasons why such changes are required. Additionally, SPIUs should begin early follow-up for allocation of Livelihood Restoration funds by the state government so that this important social development activity is achieved and consistent with provisions in the safeguard instrument. Page 72 of 78 The World Bank NG-RURAL ACCESS & MOBILITY PROJECT-Phase 2 (P095003) 2. Compensation Procedures should also be supported with adequate vouchers and documentation made available. Vouchers (evidence showing receipt of compensation) should contain pictures, signatures, and phone numbers of PAPs, as well as the corresponding amounts paid to PAPs. Additionally, in instances where there is a deviation from the planned budget either a reduction or an increase, there need to be adequate documentation to explain why the changes have occurred. 3. Borrow Pit Management - currently, there is a huge difficulty in implementing borrow pit reclamation effectively. In some cases contractors refuse to comply, but largely based on the fact that members of communities/ PAPs have requested the contractors to leave the borrow pits as dug so they can use the borrow pit for livelihood and domestic activities such as watering their cattle, collection of water for washing and other needs. Moving forward, SPIUs will need to develop robust and extensive consultation plans/strategies that are specific for borrow pit management, such that the importance and need for borrow pit reclamation is communicated to communities, prior to the commissioning of these borrow pits. Most importantly, members of the communities need to be sensitized on the criteria for “reclamation after use” which need to be clearly indicated during the negotiations between the contractor and the landowners. Also, they need to understand clearly the environmental, social, occupational and public health risks associated with unclaimed borrow pits. 4. Based on this audit, consideration to include sufficient and adequate costing during the preparation of the BEME (Bill 1) might be a step in the right direction for future Bank funded projects. Additionally, where the cost for borrow pit reclamation has been established by the contractor, the SPIU need to include a mandatory clause on borrow pit reclamation in the contract agreement, emphasizing E&S compliance expectations. With a good cost estimate proposed for borrow pit reclamation by the contractor during the bidding process, there will be no room for excuse not to comply with reclamation of borrow pits during sub-project implementation. Contractors must also ensure that land-lease agreements for the purpose of borrow pit use, contain clauses that establish consent of land owners to allow the contractors to reclaim the borrow pits in an environmentally sound and sustainable manner, after the completion of civil works. In all these processes, the Safeguard Units of the SPIUs must engage in the sensitization of landowners in this regard; as on-site visits and one-on-one interviews showed that such level of sensitization significantly reduced non-cooperation in reclamation of borrow pits in leased lands. 5. Road Maintenance - Among the SPIUs, road maintenance committees exist, and they have varying titles. Nonetheless, field visits showed that some roads in certain states are deteriorating and in bad conditions because road maintenance has not been properly carried out. In some states, contractors have been procured to ensure annual maintenance of these roads, but efforts need to be accentuated in order that the roads are maintained promptly and routinely. For instance, in Demsa Adamawa (LOT 3) an accident occurred and was recorded as caused by surface changes on the roads, excessive rainfall, etc. Since the completion of some roads, grooves and rill formations on roads have occurred making it a little difficult for motorcyclists to navigate when they access these roads. This condition has caused accidents and poses a risk to motorcyclists, in particular. If left untreated, this situation might pose severe risks in the future. Additionally, roads with drainages need to be maintained in such a way that drainages are de-silted over a particular Page 73 of 78 The World Bank NG-RURAL ACCESS & MOBILITY PROJECT-Phase 2 (P095003) period (monthly or quarterly). Some roads have silted drains and where silt has taken over certain drains, weed overgrowth has happened. For this reason, regular maintenance of drainages is required. Some roads are also located in flood plains and prone to flooding since completion. The Engineering teams of the SPIUs might want to consider elevation of such roads so that social sensitivities within and around these spots are not prone to further flooding. 6. Occupational Health and Safety (OHS) is a major concern for implementation of phase 1 sub- projects under RAMP 2. Specifically, it is required/suggested that contractors prepare site specific OHS plans to aid them in proper safety procedures during implementation of the sub-projects. Contractors should be trained on the hierarchy of controls such that OHS hazards are addressed according to steps of hazard; i) Elimination ii) Substitution iii) Adopting engineering controls iv) Administrative controls and v) use of Protective Personal Equipment (PPE) 7. Procurement Procedures for contractors. It might be important to ascertain the contractor’s compliance to certain ISO standards such as ISO 9001 (Quality Management Systems), ISO 14001 (Environmental Management Systems) and ISO 45001 (Occupational Health and Safety). 8. The phase 1 sub- projects did not emphasize the need for Labor Influx Management Plan. It is important that these are included in the subsequent safeguard instruments to be prepared by RAMP. The essence of this will help guide the contractors in their recruitment process, to help protect communities where sub-projects are undertaken, from potential adverse social impacts such as GBV/SH/SEA/VAC and illicit behavior and crimes. 9. Currently, the RAMP 2 project is compliant to the guidance notes. It has begun the recruitment of GBV Officers in some of the SPIUs and is including clauses in the contract agreements of Supervisory Consultants and Contractors with regards to full-time or part-time engagement of GBV Focal persons in sub-projects to supervise and implement respectively. 10. The current design of most of the roads has contributed to the increased generation of dust (operational phase) since most of the roads are lined with either laterite or earth. During the dry season, dust generation is at its peak, especially now that the roads are operational and used regularly. Dust generation can be seen at every kilometer, along the length of the roads. The RAMP project might want to consider modification in the design even though SPIUs have informed the auditors that Phase 2 roads have modifications. The phase 2 roads have asphalting or a better surface dressing in particular where there are schools, rural settlements, markets etc. are located. It might be necessary to consider the same for phase 1 roads (through counter-part funding from respective state governments) even though they have been completed. 11. Insufficient capacity building is largely responsible for the non-compliance experienced in major aspects of environmental and social performance. It is strongly advised that the SPIUs comply with ESMP capacity buildings provisions stated in safeguard instruments prepared for the SPIUs. This will, to a large extent, avert the likelihood of non-compliance, laxity and poor E&S performance. 12. There was no screening of sub-projects to access their eligibility for environmental and social Page 74 of 78 The World Bank NG-RURAL ACCESS & MOBILITY PROJECT-Phase 2 (P095003) assessments. SPIUs need to be trained on screening procedures. Checklists need to be used and proper screening should be ensured to identify sub-projects, eligible for environmental and social assessments. Additionally, preliminary scoping of potential environmental and social impacts needs to be done. This will help the preparation of standard and detailed Terms of References (TORs) for future environmental and social instruments for the SPIUs. 13. The SPIUs are encouraged to carry out internal audits per phase (pre-construction, construction, and operation) to ascertain level of compliance to safeguard instruments prepared. This will enable them to have an early outlook on E&S performance, prior to larger scale audits commissioned by the FPMU. 14. Proper synergy for waste management should be established between the Safeguard Units, contractors and Waste Management Agencies (WMA) in the respective states. Audit findings showed that waste was managed not according to mandates stipulated in the ESMPs. The Safeguard Units should endeavor to kick start meetings with the contractors, and the WMAs to foster effective management of waste throughout the project phases (pre-construction, construction, and operation) 15. To avert the potential impacts likely arise due to traffic, future safeguards instrument should include a Traffic Management Plan (TMP). Details of the TMP should also be captured in an annexure in the safeguard instrument. 16. Current best practices in the Bank funded projects require that contractors prepare CESMPs. At a minimum, CESMPs must detail OHS management, traffic management, social management, labor influx management and GBV/SH/SEA through CoC provisions. It should be mandatory that the contractors prepare CESMPs which are to be reviewed by the supervisory consultants and the safeguards unit before they commence with the implementation works. 17. IEC materials should be used as part of sensitization procedure to address and encourage compliance to addressing the Child’s Right Act. 18. FPMU should compel all the SPIUs to engage relevant personnel to occupy vacant safeguard positions. 19. One major observation from this Audit is the ESMP mitigation and monitoring measures for the operation phase are not implemented. Stakeholders ascribed with the responsibilities for mitigation and monitoring are not carried along. For instance, the community maintenance groups or an LGA authority were especially for the Phase 1 roads. The sustainability of these infrastructural works is critical and RAMP /RAAMP must start thinking towards this. 20. On issue of flooding across all states, the SPIU may need to liaise with the state government on supplemental measures as the project is closing. 21. On the issue of dust across all states, the SPIU may need to discuss with the state government on the possibility of surface dressing the roads. Page 75 of 78 The World Bank NG-RURAL ACCESS & MOBILITY PROJECT-Phase 2 (P095003) 22. For effective implementation of the action plan, the FPMU and the SPIU leadership should take up the task of sensitizing the state government on the pending corrective actions to ensure E&S compliance. 23. More stringent consultations and liaisons with community leaders, local vigilante and security operatives are required to address, manage, and avert the issues of vandalization of railings and barricades used on river crossings and other structures. 24. SPIUs might want to consider the inclusion of passports on CoCs prepared and submitted by the contractors. This will help for better tracking of workers and aid investigations (if need be) for illicit behaviors, crimes and GBV/SH/SEA/VAC likely to occur as a result of Labor Influx. Page 76 of 78 The World Bank NG-RURAL ACCESS & MOBILITY PROJECT-Phase 2 (P095003) ANNEX 9: LIST OF SUPPORTED DOCUMENTS 1) Project Appraisal Document (PAD), 29th August 2012 2) World Bank Credit Agreement and Financial Agreement and AFD - Co-Financing Agreement 3) Restructuring Papers, dated December 28, 2018 and September 30, 2020 4) Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) Socio-economic survey report 2014 and follow-on socio- economic survey report 2020. 5) World Bank/AFD Supervision/Technical Mission Reports, Aide-mémoire, Management Letters, and Implementation Status and Results reports (ISRs) 6) Draft Safeguards (Environmental and Social) Audit Report for Phase 1, December 2020 7) Interim Financial Management Reports 8) Counterpart fund contributions FPMU, Adamawa, Enugu, Niger, and Osun state 2013 to 2020 9) List of All Contracts and Status of Payments under the Project 10) Estimated Rehabilitation cost per km versus Actual Rehabilitation Costs Analysis per km on Phase 1 and Phase 2 rural roads 11) RAMP-2 Environmental and Social Safeguards Audit – final report, March 2021 Page 77 of 78 The World Bank NG-RURAL ACCESS & MOBILITY PROJECT-Phase 2 (P095003) ANNEX 10: PROJECT MAP (Source: PAD) Page 78 of 78