FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No: PAD3611 INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION PROJECT APPRAISAL DOCUMENT ON A PROPOSED GRANT IN THE AMOUNT OF US$11.575 MILLION FROM THE GLOBAL PARTNERSHIP FOR EDUCATION TO THE REPUBLIC OF THE SUDAN FOR A SUDAN BASIC EDUCATION EMERGENCY SUPPORT PROJECT May 1, 2020 Education Global Practice Africa Region This document is being made publicly available prior to Board consideration. This does not imply a presumed outcome. This document may be updated following Board consideration and the updated document will be made publicly available in accordance with the Bank’s policy on Access to Information. The World Bank CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (Exchange Rate Effective March 31, 2020) Currency Unit = SDG 58 = US$1 FISCAL YEAR January 1 - December 31 Regional Vice President: Hafez M. H. Ghanem Country Director: Carolyn Turk Regional Director: Dena Ringold Practice Manager: Safaa El Tayeb El-Kogali Task Team Leaders: Omer Nasir Elseed, Thanh Thi Mai ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS AFS Annual Financial Statement BERP Basic Education Recovery Project BESP Basic Education Support Project DA Designated Account DPs Development Partners ESA Education Sector Analysis ESCP Environmental and Social Commitment Plan ( ESSP Education Sector Strategic Plan ESPIG Education Sector Program Implementation Grant FM Financial Management GDP Gross Domestic Product GER Gross Enrollment Rate GOS Government of Sudan GPE Global Partnership for Education IDP Internally Displaced Person IFT Interim unaudited Financial Reports ISN Interim Strategy Note ISP Intermediary Support Provider MOE Ministry of Education MOFEP Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning NAC National Audit Chamber NER Net Enrollment Rate NHBPS National Household Budget and Poverty Survey NLA National Learning Assessment OOSC Out-of-School-Children PCU Project Coordination Unit PFS Project Financial Statements PDO Project Development Objective PPSD Project Procurement Strategy for Development PSC Project Steering Committee PTA Parents and Teachers Association PTR Pupil-teacher Ratio SDG Sudanese Pounds SOE Statement of Expenditures SRR Social Risk Rating SSA Sub-Saharan Africa UNICEF United Nations Children’s Fund USD United States Dollar WDR World Development Report The World Bank Sudan Basic Education Emergency Support Project (P172812) TABLE OF CONTENTS DATASHEET ........................................................................................................................... 1 I. STRATEGIC CONTEXT ...................................................................................................... 6 A. Country Context................................................................................................................................ 6 B. Sectoral and Institutional Context .................................................................................................... 7 C. Relevance to Higher Level Objectives............................................................................................. 13 II. PROJECT DESCRIPTION.................................................................................................. 13 A. Project Development Objective ..................................................................................................... 13 B. Project Components ....................................................................................................................... 14 C. Project Beneficiaries ....................................................................................................................... 16 D. Results Chain .................................................................................................................................. 17 E. Rationale for Bank Involvement and Role of Partners ................................................................... 17 F. Lessons Learned and Reflected in the Project Design .................................................................... 18 III. IMPLEMENTATION ARRANGEMENTS ............................................................................ 18 A. Institutional and Implementation Arrangements .......................................................................... 18 B. Results Monitoring and Evaluation Arrangements......................................................................... 19 C. Sustainability................................................................................................................................... 19 IV. PROJECT APPRAISAL SUMMARY ................................................................................... 19 A. Technical, Economic and Financial Analysis ................................................................................... 19 B. Fiduciary.......................................................................................................................................... 20 C. Legal Operational Policies ............................................................................................................... 24 D. Environmental and Social ............................................................................................................... 24 V. GRIEVANCE REDRESS SERVICES ..................................................................................... 26 VI. KEY RISKS ..................................................................................................................... 26 VII. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND MONITORING ................................................................... 28 ANNEX 1: Costing for the Sudan Basic Education Emergency Support Project ................. 31 ANNEX 2: Implementation Support Plan ....................................................................... 32 ANNEX 3: Economic and Financing Analysis ................................................................... 35 The World Bank Sudan Basic Education Emergency Support Project (P172812) DATASHEET BASIC INFORMATION BASIC_INFO_TABLE Country(ies) Project Name Sudan Sudan Basic Education Emergency Support Environmental and Social Risk Project ID Financing Instrument Process Classification Urgent Need or Investment Project P172812 Moderate Capacity Constraints Financing (FCC) Financing & Implementation Modalities [ ] Multiphase Programmatic Approach (MPA) [ ] Contingent Emergency Response Component (CERC) [ ] Series of Projects (SOP) [✓] Fragile State(s) [ ] Disbursement-linked Indicators (DLIs) [ ] Small State(s) [ ] Financial Intermediaries (FI) [ ] Fragile within a non-fragile Country [ ] Project-Based Guarantee [ ] Conflict [ ] Deferred Drawdown [ ] Responding to Natural or Man-made Disaster [ ] Alternate Procurement Arrangements (APA) Expected Approval Date Expected Closing Date 05-May-2020 28-Feb-2021 Bank/IFC Collaboration No Proposed Development Objective(s) To sustain enrollment in public basic education in Sudan during the transition school year. Page 1 of 40 The World Bank Sudan Basic Education Emergency Support Project (P172812) Components Component Name Cost (US$, millions) School Grants Program 11,280,000.00 Program coordination and management 300,000.00 Organizations Borrower: Federal Ministry of Finance Implementing Agency: Federal Ministry of Education PROJECT FINANCING DATA (US$, Millions) SUMMARY -NewFin1 Total Project Cost 11.58 Total Financing 11.58 of which IBRD/IDA 0.00 Financing Gap 0.00 DETAILS -NewFinEnh1 Non-World Bank Group Financing Trust Funds 11.58 EFA-FTI Education Program Development Fund 11.58 Expected Disbursements (in US$, Millions) WB Fiscal Year 2020 2021 Annual 1.58 10.00 Cumulative 1.58 11.58 INSTITUTIONAL DATA Page 2 of 40 The World Bank Sudan Basic Education Emergency Support Project (P172812) Practice Area (Lead) Contributing Practice Areas Education SYSTEMATIC OPERATIONS RISK-RATING TOOL (SORT) Risk Category Rating 1. Political and Governance ⚫ High 2. Macroeconomic ⚫ High 3. Sector Strategies and Policies ⚫ Moderate 4. Technical Design of Project or Program ⚫ Moderate 5. Institutional Capacity for Implementation and Sustainability ⚫ Moderate 6. Fiduciary ⚫ Substantial 7. Environment and Social ⚫ Moderate 8. Stakeholders ⚫ Low 9. Other ⚫ Low 10. Overall ⚫ Substantial COMPLIANCE Policy Does the project depart from the CPF in content or in other significant respects? [ ] Yes [ ] No Does the project require any waivers of Bank policies? [ ] Yes [ ] No Page 3 of 40 The World Bank Sudan Basic Education Emergency Support Project (P172812) Environmental and Social Standards Relevance Given its Context at the Time of Appraisal E & S Standards Relevance Assessment and Management of Environmental and Social Risks and Impacts Relevant Stakeholder Engagement and Information Disclosure Relevant Labor and Working Conditions Relevant Resource Efficiency and Pollution Prevention and Management Relevant Community Health and Safety Relevant Land Acquisition, Restrictions on Land Use and Involuntary Resettlement Not Currently Relevant Biodiversity Conservation and Sustainable Management of Living Natural Not Currently Relevant Resources Indigenous Peoples/Sub-Saharan African Historically Underserved Traditional Relevant Local Communities Cultural Heritage Not Currently Relevant Financial Intermediaries Not Currently Relevant NOTE: For further information regarding the World Bank’s due diligence assessment of the Project’s potential environmental and social risks and impacts, please refer to the Project’s Appraisal Environmental and Social Review Summary (ESRS). Legal Covenants Sections and Description By no later than six (6) months after the Effective Date, the Recipient shall prepare and submit to the Bank a GBV Action Plan for its approval. After obtaining the Bank’s approval, the Recipient shall carry out the Project in accordance with said Gender-Based Violence Action Plan. Conditions Type Description Effectiveness The Project Coordination Unit has been established and key staff namely the Project manager, financial officer and procurement officer, all with terms of reference and qualifications have been recruited; all in a manner satisfactory to the Bank Page 4 of 40 The World Bank Sudan Basic Education Emergency Support Project (P172812) Page 5 of 40 The World Bank Sudan Basic Education Emergency Support Project (P172812) I. STRATEGIC CONTEXT A. Country Context 1. Sudan is a lower-middle-income country with a fast-growing population, close to half of which is living in poverty. Despite economic sanctions and secession of the oil-rich Southern states, Sudan’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an annual average rate of 2 percent between 2008 and 2017. In nominal terms, GDP per capita increased four-fold from Sudanese Pounds (SDG) 3,617 to SDG 14,485. However, in constant 2016 prices, there was a 5 percent decrease in per capita GDP owing to a slower growth relative to population increase and high inflation. The total population is estimated to have reached 40 million in 2017 and growing at an annual average of 2.5 percent in the last 10 years (World Bank, 2016). The school-aged population (4-to-16-year-olds) accounts for one third of the population and continues to grow, contributing to the rising demand for basic services such as education and healthcare. The country has made considerable progress in human development: child mortality reduced from 105 per 1,000 (2000) to 65 per 1,000 (2016); and maternal mortality dropped from 544 per 1,000 (2000) to 311 per 1,000 (2015) (World Bank WDI). The youth literacy rate, defined as the proportion of youth between the age of 15 and 24 that can read and write a simple sentence in any language, increased from 78 percent in 2000 to 86 percent in 2014 (World Bank WDI). 2. Sudan is currently at a very important crossroads in the country’s history. A popular uprising brought to power a civilian government with the attention to carry out necessary reforms to stabilize the economy, reallocate resources away from commodity subsidies and toward social spending, liberalize the exchange rate, and reintegrate Sudan into the world economy. In the short run, however, large arrears on foreign debt and its inclusion on the US State Sponsors of Terrorism List (SSTL) restrict the country’s access to needed finance from international financial institutions and markets. 3. The new transitional Government is facing one of the most challenging environments in the world. The country faces a macroeconomic crisis: rampant inflation, massive currency devaluation, rapidly increasing arrears on international debt, and ostracism from the dollar-based international financial system. Modest economic growth persists, and the country is marked by deep poverty and inequality. Social indicators remain low and vary markedly across states, gender and poverty level. Social indicators are aggravated by the country’s service delivery function, which is still compromised by low levels of public expenditure, shortage of relevant personnel and dilapidated infrastructure. 4. As for other African countries, the direct impact of COVID-19 on Sudan will depend greatly on if current measures prove adequate to contain the spread of the virus in the country. Sudan has little capacity at present to manage a major COVID-19 epidemic, which would add to an already exceedingly difficult economic and political situation. Tourism, air transport, and the oil sector are visibly impacted. However, invisible impacts of COVID-19 are expected in 2020 regardless of the duration of the pandemic. 5. The economic impact of COVID-19 includes the increased price of basic foods, rising unemployment, and falling exports. Restrictions on movement are making the economic situation worse, with commodity prices soaring across the country. According to the IMF projections, consumer prices are expected to increase by 81.3 percent in Page 6 of 40 The World Bank Sudan Basic Education Emergency Support Project (P172812) 2020. The IMF has already forecasted an overall economic stagnation in 2020 in Sudan. GDP is expected to decrease between 4-10 percent in 2020 due to the combined impact of the economic crisis exacerbated by the social distancing measures to curb the spread of COVID-19. Slowing growth and COVID-19 policy responses will have a significant negative impact on government revenue. Slowing activity will automatically translate into lower levels of tax and other government revenue collection. The combined effect on government revenues is projected to be significant. 6. Poverty reduction stagnated in 2018 mainly due to weak economic growth, political and macroeconomic instability and the shortage of essential food items such as bread. According to the most recent official estimates of poverty based on the 2014/15 National Household Budget and Poverty Survey (NHBPS), 36.1 percent of Sudanese population (or 13.4 million people) are poor. However, the overall/national poverty rate masks wide disparities across Sudan’s 18 states. For example, Central Darfur State in western Sudan recorded the highest rate of poverty (67.2 percent). Generally, the states of South Kordofan, West and Central Darfur, in which two in three people are poor, are the states with the highest poverty rate followed by Red Sea, East and South Darfur. However, when poverty was measured against the World Bank’s international poverty line for lower middle -income countries (US$3.2 per capita per day), 46.1 percent was deemed poor. The poor are particularly affected by rising inflation given their high food share in consumption, and limited means to preserve the erosion of the value of their savings. B. Sectoral and Institutional Context 7. Education provision in Sudan is a shared responsibility among various administrative layers, managed at the Federal, State and locality levels. The Federal level has the policy mandate for strategic planning, coordination, and definition of standards. The 18 states are responsible for secondary education provision, human resource management, coordination of work of the Directorate of Education at the locality level, and basic education certification. Localities are the frontline service providers, responsible for basic education day-to-day management. The new Education Sector Strategic Plan 2018-2022 was endorsed by the Government in December 2018 and defines the overall direction of the sector in the medium term. 8. According to the current structure, basic education comprises two years of preschool, five years of lower primary, and three years of upper primary education (2:5:3 structure) . In 2015, Sudan began reform of the basic education curriculum and is currently moving to a new education structure comprising nine-year education cycle (2:6:3 structure). The first cohort of students is expected to reach Grade 9 of basic education in 2023. The increase in the number of years of free education requires a reassessment of the system’s ability to provide complete basic education to all children in Sudan, including internally displaced persons (IDPs). 9. Sudan has seen significant improvements in basic education over the last decade. Between 2008/09 and 2017/18, the total number of schools (public and private) increased by 2,800, allowing one million more children to access education. The number of students completing primary education and proceeding to secondary school increased from 251 to 336 thousand during the same time. Provision of preschool education, an important step to build school readiness, is relatively high with Gross Enrollment Ratio (GER) reaching 43 percent in 2017, ten percentage points above average for Sub-Saharan Africa. Around 26 percent of basic schools have preschool facilities. In 2018, 65 percent of learners enrolled in Grade 1 reported having some preschool education, an improvement of about 16 percentage points from 49 percent recorded in mid-2000 (ESA, 2018). Page 7 of 40 The World Bank Sudan Basic Education Emergency Support Project (P172812) 10. Despite recent progress in student enrollments, the education sector suffers from multiple challenges: (i) low and unequal levels of access and completion; (ii) low and stagnant student learning outcomes; (iii) poor education system management; (iv) inadequate learning environments; and (v) low level of public spending on education and significant contributions from households. In Sudan, the school system is also currently severely affected by the COVID-19 outbreak, with all education institutes closed since March 14, 2020. An estimated 6.2 million students are out of school due to the lockdown (Annual School Census, 2018). If this situation is permitted to continue unabated, it could have profound, long-term negative impacts on the country's development. Low and unequal levels of access and completion 11. Sudan has not managed to cope with the increased demand for education imposed by the high population growth hence the overall level of access to basic education in Sudan has been stagnant over the past decade. GER has been stagnant and low compared to other comparator countries: 72 percent (2008/09) and 73 percent (2016/17). According to the data from 2014/15 Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS), Net Enrollment Rate (NER) is 69 percent with NER for boys 2 percentage points higher compared to girls (70 and 68 percent, respectively). While girls’ and boys’ Grade 1 enrollment rates in urban areas are similar, male Grade 1 enrollment rates in rural areas are six percentage points higher than those for girls. Grade 8 enrollment rates are in favor of boys, and the gap is especially evident in rural areas. Figure 1: Primary education enrollment rates Access to basic education in Sudan at the beginning and end of Primary education GER in 2016 or the the cycle in Sudan by gender, location, and wealth quintile latest available, selected countries (2014) 139 131 Boys Girls 119 98 96 100 92 94 106 105 102 102 100 82 86 99 81 91 77 81 73 55 46 34 Sudan Uganda Burkina Faso Cameroon Zimbabwe Ethiopia Mozambique Kenya Malawi Burundi Tanzania Zambia Grade 1 Grade 8 Grade 1 Grade 8 Grade 1 Grade 8 Urban Rural Bottom 20% Top 20% Source: Authors’ estimates based on MICS2014/15. Source: Authors on UNESCO UIS data. 12. Socioeconomic disparities in basic education are large. While Grade 1 enrollment rates for the wealthiest fifth of households were universal, only 81 percent of children in the poorest fifth of households were enrolled. This socioeconomic gap in primary access widens by the end of the education cycle. Only 34 percent of children from the poorest quintile reach the last grade of primary education compared to 94 percent of children from the wealthiest quintile. The socioeconomic disparities further translate into access to secondary education: only 9 percent of Page 8 of 40 The World Bank Sudan Basic Education Emergency Support Project (P172812) children from the bottom income quintile of households proceed to Form 1 of secondary education, while 77 percent of children from the top income quintile do. Low access to secondary education for the bottom income quintiles of population in Sudan urge targeted support to the most vulnerable and poor families. 13. Socioeconomic disparities in basic education are large. While Grade 1 enrollment rates for the wealthiest fifth of households were universal, only 81 percent of children in the poorest fifth of households were enrolled. This socioeconomic gap in primary access widens by the end of the education cycle. Only 34 percent of children from the poorest quintile reach the last grade of primary education compared to 94 percent of children from the wealthiest quintile. The socioeconomic disparities further translate into access to secondary education: only 9 percent of children from the bottom income quintile of households proceed to Form 1 of secondary education, while 77 percent of children from the top income quintile do. Low access to secondary education for the bottom income quintiles of population in Sudan urge targeted support to the most vulnerable and poor families. 14. Low retention and high dropout rates have undermined Sudan’s effort to implement universal fee-free basic education. An analysis of enrollment in 20171 illustrates the large volume of pupils entering Grade 1 gradually shrinks while moving to upper grades due to drop out. In general, boys are more likely to drop out than girls. For example, 48 percent of boys enrolled in Grade 1 are likely to reach Grade 8 compared to 53 percent of girls. Anecdotal evidence suggests that high drop out of male pupils is associated with the high opportunity cost of attending school, which includes the cost of not working in the household, while female pupils drop out due to early marriage. 15. The number of out-of-school-children (OOSC) is striking: approximately three million school-age children are not in the education system. While 52 percent of those children had never attended school, 48 percent quit. The majority of OOSC (77 percent) are 6- to 13-year-olds, i.e. basic school-age. The system still has late entry until 11 years, with children who do not attend school before turning 12 are likely not to attend ever. According to the results of the National Household Budget and Poverty Survey (NHBPS) conducted in 2014/15, the main reasons for not attending school for children between the age of 6 and 15 are high costs (mentioned by 20 percent of respondents), distance to schools (14 percent), and the need for the child to support the family (6 percent) (World Bank, 2018). There is a significant risk that OOSC will increase further when schools reopen again post COVID-19. 1 Education Sector Analysis, 2018. Page 9 of 40 The World Bank Sudan Basic Education Emergency Support Project (P172812) Figure 2: Enrollment pyramid and share of illiterate pupils A. Enrollment pyramid, thousand (2017) B. Percent of Grade 3 pupils who could not read a Secondary 3 185 197 single word of a short text in Arabic Secondary 2 Male Female (2014 or the latest available) Secondary 1 164 177 Basic 8 255 246 40% Basic 7 Basic 6 341 312 27% Basic 5 22% Basic 4 17% 18% Basic 3 Basic 2 4% Basic 1 524 464 600 400 200 0 200 400 600 Jordan Iraq Morocco Egypt Yemen Sudan Thousands Source: Education Sector Analysis, 2018. Source: http://www.earlygradereadingbarometer.org/ Low and stagnant learning outcomes 16. Learning outcomes in Sudan schools are generally low. According to the National Learning Assessment (NLA) conducted in 2015 for Grade 3 pupils, the results were low in all domains of the assessment: reading, writing, and numeracy. For example, only 5 percent of pupils could read fluently (more than 60 words per minute) in Arabic, and 40 percent were not able to read at all. Furthermore, the assessment of reading speed among third graders indicated an average speed of 15 words per minute, which is far below the estimated minimum reading speed of 40 words per minute thought to be necessary to gain understanding of and meaning from the text. However, Sudan’s third graders did better in listening and comprehension compared to pupils from other Arabic Countries. 17. There is sign of slight improvements in learning outcomes at the national level. The country has recently completed its second round of NLA, and preliminary data indicates some gains in reading scores, with the reduction of non-readers from 40 percent in 2014 to 38 percent in 20172. Reading comprehension has improved from 36 percent in 2014 to 52 percent in 2017. The share of students able to perform single digit subtraction and addition increased significantly from 40 and 46 percent in 2014 to 43 percent and 52 percent in 2017, respectively. The preliminary results show that schools, where gains were made in raising reading levels in Grade 3 between the first and second NLA’s, also did better overall on Grade 6 tests. The analysis serves as an important source of data for policy dialogue. The data provides for details, which facilitate the understanding of the learning among states and within states. 2 The difference in scores is statistically significant at 0.01 confidence level. Page 10 of 40 The World Bank Sudan Basic Education Emergency Support Project (P172812) Figure 3: Grade 3 reading performance by state (2014/15 and 2017/18 NLAs) Share of pupil unable to read a single word (non-readers) 80% 2014/15 2017/18 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Improved (% of non-readers declined) Stagnant Declined Inadequate learning environments 18. The poor learning environment in many primary schools affects teacher motivation as well as student outcomes. Many schools do not meet norms for teaching and learning materials. While there have been improvements in student textbook ratios recently, mostly due to the efforts made within the recently completed Basic Education Recovery Project (P128644), under which all pupils in Grade 1-4 received a set of textbooks, shortages in specific subjects remain. On average four learners share a science book, while in Math and Arabic language classes, two and three learners, respectively, share one textbook. 19. Some areas of school infrastructure are currently inadequate and continued basic education expansion will add further pressure. Existing primary schools have shortfalls in classrooms and other facilities. For example, 16 percent of public schools including 21 percent in rural areas and 9 percent in urban, have a least one grade without a classroom. Pupils in such classes study outside ‘under a tree’ and are often dismissed during rainy seasons and hot summer months, which contribute to further worsening learning outcomes. The availability of water and sanitation facilities also tend to vary widely across schools and the number of latrines is generally inadequate. This is an important driver of dropout for girls in upper primary school, as girls are entering puberty, particularly given the high number of over-aged children due to repetition (Sperling et al., 2016). Expanding access to amenities in underserved areas will also require more classrooms in basic schools. Since the distance between schools and households is an important factor in explaining school drop-out, it will be important to locate new schools optimally to reduce travel times (World Bank, 2018). Page 11 of 40 The World Bank Sudan Basic Education Emergency Support Project (P172812) 20. Incomplete primary schools affect the system’s ability to retain children until completion. A review of the supply of basic education indicates that 6,793 out of the 16,643 schools are incomplete schools that miss at least one grade. When children transition from one school to another, the risk of non-completion increases, because they find it harder to settle in a new environment, and then learning tends to regress. Low level of public spending on education and significant contributions from households 21. Low public funding for education is affecting quality services and impeding access. The education budget as a proportion of the overall budget remained stable at 11 percent between 2009-2017, which is low compared to the GPE recommended 20 percent (GPE, 2016). In the same period, the sector budget increased 2.6 times in nominal terms, from SDG 2.7 trillion to SDG 6.9 trillion. In turn, recurrent spending in education, which represent 90 percent of the budget, more than doubled in current prices from SDG 2.4 trillion in 2009 to SDG 5.4 trillion in 2017. However, in real terms, at 2016 prices, recurrent education expenditure dropped by half. As a share of GDP, spending in education was halved from 2.4 percent in 2009 to 1.2 percent in 2017, which is the lowest in Sub-Saharan Africa. 22. Families contribute greatly to education costs including goods and services, capital costs, salaries to volunteer teachers, and food provision to teachers and pupils. In basic education for instance, on top of the SDG 2.6 trillion covered by public finances, parents added a total of SDG 496 million in the 2016/17 translating to about 16 percent of the known spending. The current economic situation is likely to affect the ability of families to pay going forward, so there is a need to mobilize more public funding. With the growing inflation affecting the purchasing power of households in Sudan, most of them may lose the ability to pay for goods and services. 23. External financing of the education sector is limited and unpredictable. Sudan remains a highly-indebted country with sizeable external arrears and has been in non-accrual status with the World Bank Group (WBG) since 1994. At the end of 2015, its external debt amounted to US$50 billion (61 percent of GDP) in nominal terms, about 84 percent of which was in arrears. Given Sudan’s current lack of access to IDA funding, the World Bank supported program is resourced mainly through trust funds, partnerships including GPE, and the World Bank’s operational budget. Impact of COVID-19 on the education sector 24. On March 17, 2020, the Cabinet of Ministers announced the closure of schools, universities and cancelled all public gatherings due to COVID-19 global pandemic. The COVID-19 pandemic threatens education progress worldwide through two major shocks: (1) the near-universal closing of schools, and (2) the economic recession sparked by the pandemic-control measures. Without major effort to counter their effects, the school closings shock will lead to learning loss, increased dropouts, and higher inequality; the economic shock will exacerbate the damage, by depressing education demand and supply as it harms households; and together, they will exact long-run costs on human capital and welfare. 25. It is likely that the poorest will be affected the most by economic shocks and school shutdown. During the Ebola epidemic in Sierra Leone household income fell from US$336 to US$131 and there was an increase in girls getting pregnant (World Bank, 2020). To protect the poorest and most vulnerable and enable them to continue learning, special interventions will be needed. Page 12 of 40 The World Bank Sudan Basic Education Emergency Support Project (P172812) C. Relevance to Higher Level Objectives 26. The proposed operation will contribute to implementation of the 2018-2022 Education Sector Strategic Plan. The Government has developed a sector strategic plan to guide service delivery in general education between 2018 and 2022. The proposed project supports operationalization of some of the activities and strategies endorsed for improving quality learning and expanding access to basic education. 27. The proposed project will contribute to the World Bank’s twin goals of ending extreme poverty and promoting shared prosperity and is consistent with the World Bank Group’s Human Capital Project. The proposed project promises to improve learning environments which are critical elements in learning adjusted years. The interventions will impact the potential of the children who the project will reach, increasing their chances of excelling in life. 28. The project will also contribute to Sudan’s progress towards the Sustainable Development Goal 4 on education. The proposed operation will contribute to Target 4.1 ‘By 2030, ensure that all girls and boys complete free, equitable and quality primary and secondary education leading to relevant and effective learning outcomes. Specifically, the school grants will contribute to the increase of Completion rates in Primary education. 29. Interim Strategy Note (ISN) 2014-15 for Sudan (Report No: 80051-SD) defines the areas of World Bank engagements, focusing on basic service delivery. The project will contribute to the long-term Poverty Reduction and Equity Strategy by investing in improving education outcomes across the country, including areas under conflict. It will support ISN Pillar II “address socioeconomic roots of conflict” and will contribute to improved equitable service delivery in education. The operation is also in line with the Government’s Basic Education Strategy and aims to upgrade the learning environment in states of Sudan. II. PROJECT DESCRIPTION A. Project Development Objective PDO Statement To sustain enrollment in public basic education in Sudan during the transition school year. PDO Level Indicators 1. Student enrollment in public primary schools. The PDO indicator will be disaggregated by school grade and gender. Page 13 of 40 The World Bank Sudan Basic Education Emergency Support Project (P172812) B. Project Components 30. The project design is guided by the following principles: (a) rapid response to support schools in light of the deteriorating economic conditions; (b) lessons learned from past education projects, in particular Basic Education Recovery Project (BERP) (P128644); (c) government ownership and priorities aligned to the 2018-2022 Education Sector Strategic Plan (ESSP); and (d) complementarity with other donor funded projects to fill strategic gaps. 31. Attainment of the proposed PDO will be based on the Government’s achievement of results in the first component: (a) school grants program, which will include providing support to schools to improve learning environment and practices. The project will operate at system and school levels, targeting all public schools. Component 1: School Grants Program (US$11.275 million). 32. This component will support provision of school grants to improve learnining environments and school planning. School grants will aim to: (i) Incentivize parents’ engagement to reduce the risk of students (especially girls) dropping out. While basic education is officially free in Sudan, currently, families contribute greatly to education expenditures at the school level. As the economic situation has deteriorated, many vulnerable families may lose the ability to pay for basic services and pull the children out of school (especially girls). Furthermore, families may face challenges to provide the pupils with basic requirements for schooling, such as uniform, school bags, exercise books, etc. School Grants can play an important role in mitigating the expected economic shock on the most vulnerable and help reduce the education cost burdens during the hard time. It can also help provide girls in the upper primary grades with necessary packages such as sanitary napkins to encourage their retention. (ii) Support teachers to reduce absenteeism. Due to high inflation rates, teacher remuneration has been deteriorating in real terms, posing the risk of teachers leaving schools temporarily or permanently for alternative livelihood pathways. The School Grants may be used to support teachers (in cash or in-kind). (iii) Support the learning environment. School Grants are expected to be an important source of funding for the targeted schools to support the acquisition of basic learning materials, stationery, notebooks, classrooms furniture and equipment which contribute to improving the learning environment to attract and retain pupils and teachers, especially females in school. A list of eligible items will be developed and provided to the schools. (iv) Improve efficiency by strengthening capacity for participatory planning, budgeting and monitoring at the school level. School grants can help disadvantaged schools create a participatory management structure at the school level. A school profile report that provides information on the school will be provided to each school to support the participatory evidence-based planning process. (v) Improve equity in education by helping children in disadvantaged situation including IDPs, refugees, girls. According to the latest Annual School Census, public schools enroll 30 thousand refugee students (in 1,681 schools) and 280 thousand IDPs (in 1,852 schools). While IDP children are concentrated in three Darfur states (68 percent of Page 14 of 40 The World Bank Sudan Basic Education Emergency Support Project (P172812) all IDPs), namely, Central, North, and South Darfur, refugee students are distributed among half of Sudan’s states: South Kordofan (17 percent), White Nile (13 percent), West Kordofan (10 percent), East Darfur (10 percent), South Darfur (9 percent), Gadarif (8 percent), North Darfur (8 percent), and Khartoum state (7 percent). Moreover, girls’ retention rates (grade 6 survival rates) vary from type of schools: from 53.0 percent in co-ed schools to 85.9 percent in schools for girls. Surprisingly, girls’ survival rates are higher in schools with refugees or IDPs students compared to schools without them (78.3 vs 70.0 percent). 33. Overall, 88 percent of public schools in Sudan (14,429 schools) meet one of the disadvantage criteria : (i) low girls’ retention; (ii) enrollment of IDPs or refugee students; (iii) poor learning environment (absence of water supply, latrines, fences); and (iv) lack of teachers (high pupil-teacher ratios). 34. Around 16,500 schools from all 18 States will benefit from school grants and training in evidence planning to improving learning conditions and ultimately promote access, retention and learning. School Improvement Plans will be developed through a participatory process involving Parents and Teachers’ Associations (PTAs) as well as the community surrounding the schools. The plans will be informed by key information on the schools and the locality where they are situated. 35. Allocation of school grants per school will be based on a formula, which will include a per capita base and measures to cater for price differences among the states. An estimated US$2 per child will be allocated equally to all schools. The maximum amount per school will be US$1,000 to keep the grants manageable and at a level that the Government can afford to carry on at the end of the program, avoid having schools managing very high budgets, which may not be sustainable in the future. At least 5.4 million pupils will benefit from the School Grants Program. 36. Localities will be responsible for allocating the grants to schools; train the PTAs and school heads on participatory planning and appropriate use of school grants; and supervision of implementation of the grants. The States with support from the Project Coordination Unit (PCU) will be responsible for capacity building at the community level (empowerment, inclusion, gender sensitivity, school safety) – train the localities and prepare them to perform their role in overseeing implementation of the school grants. The PCU will assess capacity of localities and schools in in participatory planning and monitoring of school results. 37. Key activities will include: • Assessing capacity of localities and schools in in participatory planning and monitoring of school results; • Training of school heads and PTAs in participatory planning and monitoring of school results, including learning; • Training of locality supervisors to provide support to schools as needed; and • Providing grants to schools to improve learning environments. 38. Selection of intervention schools: The project will target all public primary schools in Sudan. Rich school- level data obtained from the School Census in 2015-2019 with support from the BERP will be used for the targeting of project beneficiaries (figure 4). Page 15 of 40 The World Bank Sudan Basic Education Emergency Support Project (P172812) Figure 4: Heat map of Sudan’s basic education schools Source: Based on 2018/19 School Census using Arcgis software. 39. Component 2 Program coordination and management (US$0.3 million). This component will support the Federal Ministry of Educaiton (MoE) in overall program coordination, monitoring and evaluation. The PCU will cover functions such as planning, procurement, financial management, environmental and social safeguards and monitoring and evaluation. Technical experts will be mobilized as necessary. The PCU will monitor the progress by collecting and analyzing school-level data under the the Annual School Census. C. Project Beneficiaries 40. Primary beneficiaries are schoolchildren, teachers, and parents. Approximately 5.4 million students will benefit from the project through provision of school grants. Communities in targeted areas will also benefit from enhance participatory school management. Page 16 of 40 The World Bank Sudan Basic Education Emergency Support Project (P172812) D. Results Chain 41. The following chart depicts the program theory of change: MEDIUM TERM ACTIVITIES INTERMEDIATE OUTCOMES OUTCOMES Improved availability of school Provide grants to targeted operational and learning schools to sustain retention resources Train school heads and PTAs in Enhanced participatory Sustained enrollment in participatory planning & management in targeted public basic education monitoring schools Build capacity of locality Increased supervision in supervisors in school-based targeted schools planning & management E. Rationale for Bank Involvement and Role of Partners 42. The World Bank has been engaged in the education sector in Sudan for more than two decades. Among Development Partners engaged in the sector, the World Bank has provided strategic leadership in policy dialogue with a focus on education quality, access, and good governance. The World Bank has gained valuable experience through the implementation of projects in the education and numerous other sectors in Sudan. This has provided many lessons about specific characteristics of the country’s implementation environment, particularly understanding of the ability to respond to GoS’s implementation strengths and weaknesses. 43. The World Bank’s convening authority is well recognized and will be of particular value given the need for broad-based consensus and alignment among stakeholders for ensuring a successful GPE process . The World Bank will bring added value through its high level of technical expertise derived from its knowledge gained from operations to support primary education around the globe. It brings the advantage of strong in-country capacity for continual implementation support, particularly to ensure sound fiduciary functioning and management. The World Bank has carried out extensive analytical work on Sudan’s education sector, the findings of which have been fully integrated into the proposed project’s design. 44. The education program in Sudan is built on organic links amongst three operations. This Emergency Support Project (provided by the GPE Accelerated Fund) will ensure schools receive support during the economic crisis through extending school grants. A COVID-19 response project P174220 is being prepared with the aim of helping Sudan to maintain learning continuity during the pandemic and ensure appropriate resumption of teaching and learning when school starts up. The third operation, the Basic Education Support Project P167169(funded by GPE Education Sector Plan Implementation Grant) will support Sudan to continue to sustain the achievement and further Page 17 of 40 The World Bank Sudan Basic Education Emergency Support Project (P172812) improve the equity, efficiency and learning outcomes of the education system by financing textbooks and reading materials, school grants and teacher training and support as well as data collection, analysis and feedback systesm. F. Lessons Learned and Reflected in the Project Design 45. The World Bank has successfully supported the recovery and stabilization of basic education sector in Sudan. The Basic Education Recovery Project (P128644) (US$76.5 million) supported the improvement of learning conditions in basic education, covering classroom construction, provision of school grants disadvantaged schools, provision of a set of core textbook to all students in Grade 1 to Grade 4, and also provided training to teachers teaching Grade 1 to 3 to teach the new curriculum and textbooks. The project was successful in many cases (textbooks and schools in particular) surpassing the original targets, and was rated satisfactory at completion. The success stories - the textbook delivery mechanism and the successful implementation of the school grants - have provided a critical basis for the design of this operation. 46. The operation aims to build on the lessons learnt of BERP including: A dual approach to school grants and administration facilitated community capacity building. Several school grant pilots were conducted which produced useful lessons that will be integrated into the scale up of the school grant sub-component. One successful method was using a dual approach to implementation. Government systems were used when capacity was adequate, and Intermediary Support Providers (ISPs) were used when capacity for planning and financial management was weak. In the latter case, ISPs provided capacity building to localities, so they could eventually take over management of their school grants. These efforts included training communities on how to communicate effectively with the project, locality, and local banks (e.g., informing the project and locality executive officers when the grants procedures would be launched, which schools had amounts payable to them and their bank account information). It also included training on how to open accounts and follow up on fund transfers to recipients’ bank accounts and reporting on finalization of grants. III. IMPLEMENTATION ARRANGEMENTS A. Institutional and Implementation Arrangements 47. The implementation will be mainstreamed through the MoE, State Ministries of Education and localities at the local government level, using the existing government structures in Sudan. 48. Component 1 will be implemented by public schools with the support of the locality, state and MoE . At MoE level, the Department of Planning will provide the overall coordination and support the school grants activities. The implementation arrangement will build on the school grants experience under the BERP and, to the extent possible, government systems will be used to deliver the grants to schools, provide training on participatory planning, budgeting, monitoring and accountability. However, implementation capabilities may vary among the localities, therefore the project may make use of Third Party Providers to support capacity building at the beginning of the program and then phase out as the system mature. The nature and role of such third-party providers shall be defined once a capacity assessment is done to determine their capability to manage school grants. Page 18 of 40 The World Bank Sudan Basic Education Emergency Support Project (P172812) 49. The MoE and States will be supported by a PCU. The PCU will be led by a Program Manager and include the following key personnel: (i) school grant coordinator; (ii) program monitoring and evaluation specialist; and (iii) procurement, financial management and administrative staff. B. Results Monitoring and Evaluation Arrangements 50. The project will support the establishment of a robust monitoring and evaluation system to supplement and complement the Federal and State Ministries of Education structures. The project will support training of state officers on planning and budgeting to ensure timely development of monitorable annual plans with clear outputs. Under the School Grants Program (Component 1), schools will receive regular supervision and support from localities, which means the latter will also need to strengthen their capacity to perform this task. Localities will train PTAs on participatory planning and use of school data for planning and monitoring purpose at the school level. Localities will receive support for coaching and monitoring the reading program. C. Sustainability 51. The sustainability of project investments and activities guided project preparation and key elements of the project design. First, the PDO and project-supported activities are consistent with national strategies—in terms of increasing access and improving the quality of basic education. There is also strong alignment between the indicators to be used to assess progress under the proposed project and the indicators/outcomes defined for the Government’s ESSP. Third, the technical contents of the project are supported by international and national evidence of good practices. Finally, a central focus of the project is strengthening the education system and capacity at all levels, including strengthening the community’s overall role in school management and planning, which is expected to be sustained in the long term. The elements discussed above support the sustainability of the project’s objective. IV. PROJECT APPRAISAL SUMMARY A. Technical, Economic and Financial Analysis Technical Analysis 52. The project is designed to support activities that address key issues in basic education identified by the current Education Sector Analysis and ESSP: limited and inequitable access to basic education due to supply-side and demand-side constraints; poor quality of education service delivery and low student learning levels; and insufficient institutional capacity for efficient education system planning and management. 53. Project objectives and performance targets are based on detailed financial analysis and simulations . These objectives and targets are financially feasible if the national education budget is supported by external funding. The selected activities draw on international experiences and best-practice and past projects in Sudan and elsewhere as relevant. Page 19 of 40 The World Bank Sudan Basic Education Emergency Support Project (P172812) 54. However, continued economic crisis exasperated by the COVID-19 outbreak and hyper-inflation may hinder achievement of project targets of improved retention in basic schools as more children may start dropping out to help their families. Fuel crisis may hamper successful implementation of project activities such as school grant provision as the schools would become harder to reach. Regular monitoring and evaluation of the implementation process and economic and social environment would be required starting from the Project effectiveness date. Economic and Financial Analysis 55. Investments in basic education in Sudan carry high returns. Sudan is far from reaching the Education SDG 4 of universal primary completion because of the high number of dropouts within the primary cycle. Pupil retention within the basic cycle slightly improved from 48.2 percent in 2014 to 49.3 percent in 2018 but remains largely inadequate. Investment in basic education in Sudan is justified by low NER (69 percent) and completion rate (55 percent) and weak learning levels among enrolled students with 39 percent of Grade 3 pupils unable to read a single word in Arabic. The high share of illiterate pupils means that 39 percent of public resources spent on pupils in Grades 1-3 are wasted in the system, which is equivalent to SDG 473 million (US$14.6 million). See Annex 3 for a full economic analysis. 56. Use of public funds and external financing for basic education is well justified. Repetition rates in Sudan’s basic schools are relatively low compared to other countries in the SSA region. Though, an estimated US$10.4 million is used annually to deliver basic education services to repeaters and pupils that drop out before completing the basic education cycle. Given an increasingly tight fiscal environment related to loss of oil revenues, ongoing conflict in some areas, and limited infrastructure, external resources are required for Sudan to meet the SDG targets and to expand and sustain the education developments achieved so far. 57. Domestic revenues will continue to be the main source of education financing. Currently, public spending in education is very low with communities bearing much of the non-salary cost. Interventions under the project are justified by the urgent need to support schools during the transition school year to sustain pupil retention, as schools reopen following the COVID-19 closures. The rapid support serves an immediate injection and continuity of services to children and help complement ongoing humanitarian support; while ensuring previous GPE program gains are stabilized and new GPE priorities under the next Education Sector Program Implementation Grant (ESPIG) are established. B. Fiduciary (i) Financial Management (FM) 58. The project will build on the BERP and will be managed by its PCU. The PCU is placed under the MoE but sits in a separate location. The purpose of keeping the PCU in place for the proposed project was to benefit from the institutional memory of the PCU staff who received training in basic World Bank project implementation and fiduciary procedures, and to inherit the existing investments in office equipment and vehicles. Nevertheless, certain equipment will need to be replaced/repaired/upgraded under the project. The following financial management arrangements will be undertaken by the project management and the Client: Page 20 of 40 The World Bank Sudan Basic Education Emergency Support Project (P172812) 59. Budgeting: The project will prepare an Annual Budget based on an agreed Annual Work and Procurement Plans. The budget will be adopted by the Project Steering Committee (PSC) before the beginning of the year and its execution will be monitored on a quarterly basis. Annual draft budgets will be submitted for the World Bank’s non- objection before adoption and implementation no later than November 30 every year. The budget monitoring will be conducted at three levels: - (i) at transaction level, there will be checks conducted to ensure that payment requests are approved after checking the availability of budget; (ii) at system level, the accounting system should be able to support the budget monitoring aspect by tracking budget, by enabling easy recording of budgets and commitments, by enabling comparison of actual performance with budget; and (iii) at the report level- where the project will be preparing periodic/ad-hoc financial reports and analyses to follow up on budget utilization and variance analysis prompting management and or the PSC to appropriate actions and mid-way corrections. In addition, quarterly Interim unaudited Financial Reports (IFRs) submitted to the World Bank will include statements that show budget utilization, comparing actual expenditures with budgets and proving justifications/explanations for major variances. These and other budgeting process and monitoring will be clearly defined in the FM Manual. 60. Internal control and internal audit: Internal control comprises the entire system of control, financial or otherwise, established by management in order to: (i) carry out the project activities in an orderly and efficient manner; (ii) assure adherence to policies and procedures; (iii) safeguard, manage and control the assets of the project; (iv) ensure completeness and accuracy of the financial transaction/information; (v) ensure proper segregation of FM-related functions; (vi) ensure proper flow of funds; and (vii) ensure adequacy and accuracy and recording of FM data. The details of these procedures will be documented in the Project FM Manual to be prepared. The Internal Audit Chamber will assign a staff to carry out internal audit reviews on the project on a regular basis. The reports of the internal audit will be shared during supervision missions. The project management will ensure that audit findings are timely resolved. 61. Disbursement Arrangement: The following disbursement methods may be used under the project: reimbursement, advance, direct payment, and special commitment as will be specified in the Disbursement Letter and in accordance with the World Bank Disbursement Guidelines for Projects, dated February 1, 2017. Disbursements will be transactions-based whereby withdrawal applications will be supported with Statement of Expenditures (SOE). Documentation will be retained at the project for review by World Bank staff and external auditors. The Disbursement Letter will provide details of the disbursement methods, required documentation, designated account (DA) ceiling, and minimum application size. No withdrawal shall be made for payments made prior to the Signature Date of the Grant Agreement, except that withdrawals up to an aggregate amount not to exceed US$2,315,000 may be made for payments made prior to this date but on or after May 1, 2020, for Eligible Expenditures. The Closing Date is February 28, 2021. A period of four months (grace period) after the closing date will be allowed to complete processing of disbursement for eligible expenditures incurred up to and until the closing date of the grant. 62. Banking Arrangements: The PCU will open a segregated Designated Account on or after May 1, 2020 denominated in Euro at a bank acceptable to the World Bank. Local currency account(s) can also be opened to receive transfer from the Euro account. The details of both accounts (the designated and project account) along with the details of account signatories will be communicated to the World Bank within one month after effectiveness. No disbursements will be made from the World Bank until the segregated bank accounts are opened Page 21 of 40 The World Bank Sudan Basic Education Emergency Support Project (P172812) for the project. If ineligible expenditures are found to have been made from the Designated Account, the Recipient will be obligated to refund the same. If the Designated Account remains inactive for more than six months, the Recipient may be requested to refund amounts transferred by the World Bank to the Designated Account. These accounts will finance all eligible project expenditures as per the Financing Agreement. It is envisaged that funds will be held at the PCU only. Should a need arise in future to transfer resources to other entities, then a FM assessment for them will be conducted to ensure that adequate FM capacity exists and to mitigate risks. 63. Fund flow arrangement: The World Bank will make an initial advance disbursement into the designated account for the project managed by PCU in Euro upon receiving a withdrawal application. Subsequent replenishment of funds from the World Bank to the Designated Account will be made upon evidence of satisfactory utilization of the advance, reflected in SOEs and/or on full documentation for payments above SOE thresholds. Replenishment applications would be required to be submitted regularly (preferably monthly). Funds can be transferred from the designated accounts to the project local currency account where payments in relation to project eligible expenditure can be made. In addition, payments could also be affected from the designated account for eligible expenditure. A separate local bank account will be opened for the counterpart fund, normally in the Central Bank of Sudan. Relevant payments will be paid out of this account. 64. Internal Reporting: The PCU and specifically the finance officer will prepare financial reports regarding the project, analyze and explain these reports and submit to internal stakeholders or management on a regular and ad- hoc basis. 65. Reporting to the World Bank: The PCU will prepare quarterly IFRs for the project in form and content satisfactory to the World Bank, which will be submitted to the World Bank within 45 days after the end of each quarter to which they relate. The IFR will support the monitoring of project implementation. The IFR format/content will include templates for: (i) Statement of Sources and Uses of Fund stating summary statement of funds received from IDA, expenditures incurred on the project appropriately classified and fund balances including opening and closing balances and the movements there of; (ii) Statement of Use of Funds by Project Activity/Component comparing budgets with actual expenditures/payments for the quarter and cumulative showing variances, budget burnout rates and balances, etc.; (iii) reconciliations of the DA and Project accounts as at the closing date of the reporting period; (iv) Notes to the IFR, advance and retention statements, supporting schedules e.g. aging analysis, bank statements, trial balances; and (v) any other forms and information that may be requested by the World Bank. The Project also will prepare Annual Financial Statements (AFS) in compliance with International Accounting Standards and Bank requirements. The annual Project Financial Statements (PFS) will be prepared within 2 months of the close of the fiscal year to which it relates and will be submitted to the National Audit Chamber for audit. Audit TOR will show the content of the AFS. 66. External audit arrangement: The Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning (MoFEP)/PCU will be responsible for having the PFS audited by the National Audit Chamber (NAC). The Annual audited PFS and audit reports (including Management Letters) for the project will be submitted to the World Bank by MoFEP/PCU within six months from the end of the fiscal year. In accordance with the World Bank’s Policy on Access to Information, the World Bank requires that the Recipient disclose the audited financial statements in a manner acceptable to the World Bank. Following the World Bank’s formal receipt of these statements from the Recipient, the World Bank makes them available to the public as per the policy. The audit would be in conformity with the World Bank’s audit Page 22 of 40 The World Bank Sudan Basic Education Emergency Support Project (P172812) requirements and in accordance with internationally recognized auditing standards. The auditor will express an opinion on the Financial Statements in compliance with International Standards on Auditing (ISA) issued by the International Federation of Accountants (IFAC). The NAC will also prepare a Management Letter giving observations and comments, and providing recommendations for improvements in accounting records, systems, controls and compliance with financial covenants in the Grant Agreement. As noted above, the audit report will be submitted to the World Bank within six months after the end of the accounting period to which the audit relates. The audit Terms of Reference (ToR) for the project audit will be prepared by MoFEP/PCU and will be agreed with the World Bank by negotiations. (ii) Procurement 67. The procurement of the project will be implemented by the PCU. The PCU will have the same fiduciary function as under the BERP implementation. 68. The procurement arrangement has been assessed and the procurement risk is rated as “High.” The risk will be mitigated through regular reporting on the progress and implementation of fiduciary activities by the PCU, World Bank supervision, World Bank procurement team hands-on support as required, and further capacity building and training. Risk mitigation measures have been discussed and agreed with the PCU. The measures include intensive trainings of staff from the procurement unit on the use of the World Bank procedures and processes for procurement of works, goods and selection of consultants. The preparation of a procurement plan for the duration of the project would also contribute to alleviate the risks. 69. Procurement under the proposed operation will be guided by the following documents : (a) the ‘World Bank Procurement Regulations for IPF Borrowers dated July 1, 2016, revised November 2017 and August 2018 (Procurement Regulations); and (b) the World Bank’s Anticorruption Guidelines ‘Guidelines on Preventing and Combatting Fraud and Corruption’, revised July 1, 2016. The Project Implementation Manual “the Community Contracting Project Implementation Manual” has been revised in accordance with these documents and will include simplified instructions and procedures for procurement in decentralized units (schools and communities) and detailed procedures for administration and handling of procurement-related complaints. The PTAs procurement capacity in handling Community-Driven Development (CDD) procurement and Contract Management need to be revisited and reassessment is important on individual case basis to ensure that PTAs get the required skills and training for the appropriate procurement delivery in line with the IPF guidelines. 70. As required by the procurement Regulations, the Recipient has already prepared the Project Procurement Strategy for Development (PPSD) and a draft Procurement Plan covering the first 18 months of implementation. The project will use the World Bank’s online procurement planning and tracking tools to carry out all procurement transactions. The is the Systematic Tracking of Exchanges in Procurement (STEP) which is an end to end and will be used for submission, clearance, to capture procurement data and to update the Procurement Plan. Sudan has procurement, contracting and public asset management regulations (law). Any contract, which will be procured through National Competitive Bidding (NCB) procedures, would be subjected to these national procurement procedures. The project has no complex procurement that may pose a challenge to the Recipient capacity. Procurement activities are similar to those under BERP. As such, the Client is familiar with the types of procurement that will be undertaken under this project. Page 23 of 40 The World Bank Sudan Basic Education Emergency Support Project (P172812) 71. Summary of the Project Procurement Strategy for Development (PPSD): Based on the main conclusions of the PPSD, the environment is considered favorable for the execution of public contracts. The goods including the IT equipment required for the project, including the laptops and desktops can be procured from the domestic market by using “Request for Quotations.” IT equipment with the appropriate software, photocopiers and office furniture will be procured through Direct Selection as well as other printing materials. In the case of vehicle rentals for fieldwork, if needed, a wide domestic market exists, including a number of enterprises capable of fulfilling the contracts. No consultancy firm is expected to be recruited; while individual consulting services will be open to both local and international candidates through advertisement in local and international media. The Implementing Agency has already developed clear procedures for the use of Request for Quotations and Individual Consultants Selection. The complete PPSD has been prepared and is included in the project operational manual. The proposed Procurement and Selection methods in view of the identified activities are all Post Review. .C. Legal Operational Policies . Triggered? Projects on International Waterways OP 7.50 No Projects in Disputed Areas OP 7.60 No . D. Environmental and Social 72. Environmental Risk Rating – Moderate. School grants are expected to be an important source of funding for schools to support the acquisition of basic learning materials, stationery, notebooks, classrooms furniture, provide services such as water provision and support small reparation, which will contribute for improving the learning environment, which can attract and retain pupils and teachers in school. The school grants may be used to support teachers (in cash or in-kind). An estimated US$2 per child will be allocated equally to all schools, with the maximum amount US$1,000 per school. Due to the possibility that the grants may be used for water supply and sanitation infrastructure (such as supplying water tanks, clay pots) within school boundaries, etc., the environmental risk rating is considered to be moderate. This risk rating can be changed later during implementation according to a re-assessment of environmental risks. 73. Social Risk Rating (SRR) - Moderate. The school grant will be used for financing stationery, paying volunteer teachers if the number of teachers is not enough, supporting school meals for very poor children and provision of drinking water for both teachers and students were water isn’t available in the school. The potential social risks may arise from utilization of grant resources. Though in all of themselves, the project activities are low risk, the SRR is considered moderate as the project will support voluntary teachers in schools across Sudan, including in conflict affected areas where the contextual risk to the project is considered moderate. The social risk mitigation measures include, undertaking robust stakeholder engagement, using third party (NGOs) to implement the school grant in conflict affected areas and preparing labor management plans which will help to manage the potential risks. A social assessment will be prepared by September 2020 to deepen the understanding of the issues. Page 24 of 40 The World Bank Sudan Basic Education Emergency Support Project (P172812) 74. Safeguards Management Approach and Capacity: An Environmental and Social Commitment Plan (ESCP) has been prepared and disclosed on April 23, 2020. Since this project is prepared under emergency procedures (Investment Project Financing Policy Paragraph 12), the ESCP outlines the commitment by the Client to update the ESMF of the Sudan Basic Education Support Project and finalize after project approval. A labor management plan has been prepared and disclosed on April 3 2020. The MoE will continue to serve as the implementation agency for this project. Within the MoE, there is an existing PCU which will hold responsibility for carrying day-to- day implementation of project activities. The PCU is supported a social mobilization and grass-roots capacity building/school grant coordinator and a safeguards specialist to carry out environmental and social safeguards implementation, monitoring and reporting respectively. National institutional capacity is thus strong. The PCU has a history of engaging with State Ministries and local communities to build capacity, and there is a component in the project dedicated to funding this, especially for the new States being added. 75. Stakeholder Engagement and Information Disclosure - The project has prepared a stakeholder engagement plan based on the findings of a stakeholder mapping. This plan was disclosed in country on April 23, 2020 and on the World Bank website on April 30, 2020. There will be continuous stakeholder engagement by the MoE, State Education Offices, implementing entities; such as, partner non-government organizations. The project social mobilizers will closely work with the school level Parent Teacher Association (PTA) in the process of stakeholder engagement and community consultation. 76. Grievance Redress Mechanism: in Sudan, customary institutions including community development committees are responsible for managing community grievances. In case of grievances and disputes the communities/tribes typically settle these problems through their traditional system/community committees. Further, the native administration or be heard by local courts, which are staffed with traditional leaders such as Nazir, Omdas, and Sheikhs serving as mediating and ruling out. The customary court can refer cases to the formal court system; however, chiefs and sub-chiefs in many areas continue to arbitrate grievances and disputes arising within the community. The BERP had weak institutionalization, systematic recording and reporting of grievances so the project needs to set up a grievance/complain handling mechanism building on existing local practice with defined procedure, timeline and capacity building to the committee. 77. Gender: the project will consider gender sensitive planning, through systematic gender analysis, action, monitoring and reporting. The analysis will consider gender disparities among different states, retention of girls in schools, understanding female teacher situations. The gender aspects differ among pastoralists, geographic locations, agro-pastoralists, which will be accounted in the implementation of the project. The project will also raise awareness and engage communities in making sure girls do not enter early marriage and stay in schools to complete basic education. 78. Gender Based Violence: in improving school planning and monitoring the proposed project will help to reduce GBV. To prevent and reduce such risks, the project will engage in awareness and stakeholder engagement campaigns as part of the continuous community consultation that will accompany project activities. For cases of GBV and sexual exploitation and abuse (SEA), the State PCU social mobilization and grass-roots capacity building/school grant coordinator specialist will be the focal person to ensure referral and services. If cases are reported, the project will allocate adequate resources to build awareness of this mechanism for bringing GBV Page 25 of 40 The World Bank Sudan Basic Education Emergency Support Project (P172812) grievances to the attention of the State focal person. The State focal person will receive training in the basic principles of GBV case management, encompassing confidentiality, a non-judgmental approach, and service referrals for survivors. Adoption and Implementation of the GBV Action Plan will be done within six months of effectiveness and during project implementation and will be maintained throughout the Project life. V. GRIEVANCE REDRESS SERVICES Communities and individuals who believe that they are adversely affected by a World Bank (WB) supported project may submit complaints to existing project-level grievance redress mechanisms or the WB’s Grievance Redress Service (GRS). The GRS ensures that complaints received are promptly reviewed in order to address project-related concerns. Project affected communities and individuals may submit their complaint to the WB’s independent Inspection Panel which determines whether harm occurred, or could occur, as a result of WB non-compliance with its policies and procedures. Complaints may be submitted at any time after concerns have been brought directly to the World Bank's attention, and Bank Management has been given an opportunity to respond. For information on how to submit complaints to the World Bank’s corporate Grievance Redress Service (GRS), please visit http://www.worldbank.org/en/projects-operations/products-and-services/grievance-redress-service. For information on how to submit complaints to the World Bank Inspection Panel, please visit www.inspectionpanel.org. VI. KEY RISKS 79. The overall risk for the proposed project is rated Substantial. While sectoral, technical and stakeholder risks are moderate, political/governance and macro-economic risks are high and fiduciary risks are substantial. Below are the high and substantial risks and mitigation measures: (a) Political and governance risks (high). The federal system limits the possibility to coordinate and steer the education system to achieve the national educational objectives. To mitigate this risk, the Program Coordination Unit established within the Federal MoE will coordinate the vertical and horizonal project activities. There are capacity constraints in the system, but more than one third of communities and schools have already been trained in the management and implementation of school grants under previous project. (b) Macro-economic risks (high). Sudan’s macro-economic situation is erratic and significant fluctuations exist. The ongoing food and fuel crisis also continue dampening investor confidence affecting key economic sectors especially the service sector which is still in its infancy in Sudan. The resultant rising inflation, exchange rate instability and continued currency depreciation greatly weaken economic activity. The poor are particularly affected by rising inflation given their high food share in consumption, and limited mesas to preserve the erosion of the value of their savings. This increases the risks that parents will not be able to afford to send their children to schools and that counterpart funding will not be forthcoming. The COVID-19 crisis is expected to aggravate the situation. The current economic crisis in Sudan has created a large variation between the official exchange rate and the parallel market and the devaluation of the Sudanese currency. The Central Bank of Sudan official exchange rate is 1 USD = 58 SDG however the parallel market has fluctuated greatly reaching as high as 1 USD = 140 SDG; an average of 70 Page 26 of 40 The World Bank Sudan Basic Education Emergency Support Project (P172812) SDG to the USD is currently calculated. . In light of the urgency of the situation, this emergency support will be conducted in a short project implementation cycle, limiting the impacts of macro-economic fluctuations and providing much needed resources directly to the schools. The project aims to thereby reduce some of the pressure on households to finance education services and ensure that students, especially girls, stay enrolled in schools. (c) Fiduciary (substantial). There are risks related to the project’s fiduciary management (i.e., FM and procurement). The MoE has gained substantial experience in managing World Bank funds with the BERP which was rated satisfactory in financial management. The new project will continue to emphasize strong fiduciary controls and checks and balances. Standard controls, such as financial audits and internal audits, as well as systematic monitoring, will be built into the project design to mitigate fiduciary risks. . Page 27 of 40 The World Bank Sudan Basic Education Emergency Support Project (P172812) VII. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND MONITORING Results Framework COUNTRY: Sudan Sudan Basic Education Emergency Support Project Development Objectives(s) To sustain enrollment in public basic education in Sudan during the transition school year. Project Development Objective Indicators RESULT_FRAME_TBL_ PD O Indicator Name DLI Baseline End Target To sustain enrollment in public basic education in Sudan Student enrollment in targeted schools (Number) 5,400,000.00 5,535,000.00 Girls enrolment in targeted schools (Number) 2,780,000.00 2,850,000.00 PDO Table SPACE Intermediate Results Indicators by Components RESULT_FRAME_TBL_ IO Indicator Name DLI Baseline End Target School grants program Number of schools receiving grants (Number) 0.00 16,500.00 Share of schools with school-based management committees trained on school grant management (Percentage) 0.00 90.00 Page 28 of 40 The World Bank Sudan Basic Education Emergency Support Project (P172812) IO Table SPACE UL Table SPACE Monitoring & Evaluation Plan: PDO Indicators Methodology for Data Responsibility for Data Indicator Name Definition/Description Frequency Datasource Collection Collection Annual The enrollment will be Census of schools key Ministry of Education Annual School Student enrollment in targeted schools monitored through the data collected yearly and PCU Census annual school census Annual Census of school key Ministry of Education Number of girls enrolled in Annual School Girls enrolment in targeted schools data collected annually and PCU targeted schools Census ME PDO Table SPACE Monitoring & Evaluation Plan: Intermediate Results Indicators Methodology for Data Responsibility for Data Indicator Name Definition/Description Frequency Datasource Collection Collection Administrativ Reports compiled by Number of schools receiving Annual PCU Number of schools receiving grants e Reports Localities and States grants Share of schools with school-based Share of schools receiving Administrativ Reports compiled by Annual Project Coordination Unit management committees trained on training on school grant e reports Localities and States school grant management management. ME IO Table SPACE Page 29 of 40 The World Bank Sudan Basic Education Emergency Support Project (P172812) Page 30 of 40 The World Bank Sudan Basic Education Emergency Support Project (P172812) ANNEX 1: Costing for the Sudan Basic Education Emergency Support Project COUNTRY: Sudan Sudan Basic Education Emergency Support Project Table A1-1: Accelerated Funding Framework Budget Number of Component/Activity Unit Unit cost, USD Comment beneficiaries Total cost USD Component 1. School Grants Program Capacity building of schools and Training of schools and public 16,500 75 communities on the 1,237,500 communities schools use of school grants. students US$2 per student in in target grants, but not Providing school grants 5.4 2 10,037,500 schools, more than USD million 1,000 per school. Component 2. Program Management Operational cost of the Program Coordination Unit (PCU): US$300 300,000 communication, thousand coordination, monitoring, and reporting TOTAL: Sudan GPE 11,575,000 Accelerated Fund Page 31 of 40 The World Bank Sudan Basic Education Emergency Support Project (P172812) ANNEX 2: Implementation Support Plan COUNTRY: Sudan Sudan Basic Education Emergency Support Project 1. The implementation support plan of the project is consistent with the new Government’s strategy for managing externally funded programs supporting education. It also considers challenges in the education sector and risks identified in the Systematic Operations Risk-Rating Tool. It reflects the lessons learned from the past projects in Sudan. The project implementation rests under the responsibility of the MoE with targeted and continuous implementation support and technical advice from the World Bank. 2. The implementation support strategy is based on several mechanisms that will enable enhanced implementation support to the Government, on-time and effective monitoring of the Project, and guidance to implementing agencies on technical, fiduciary, environmental and social aspects, as necessary. The implementation support thus comprises: (a) implementation support missions; (b) regular technical meetings and field visits; (c) progress report on Results Framework; (d) M&E; and (e) harmonization among development partners and other stakeholders. 3. The World Bank’s implementation support will broadly consist of the following: • Capacity-building activities to strengthen the ability to implement the project, covering the technical, fiduciary, and environmental and social dimensions • Provision of technical advice and implementation support geared to the attainment of the PDO, PDO-level and intermediate outcome results indicators • Ongoing monitoring of implementation progress, including regularly reviewing key outcome and intermediate indicators, and identification of bottlenecks • Monitoring risks and identification of corresponding mitigation measures • Close coordination with other DPs to leverage resources, ensure coordination of efforts, and avoid duplication 4. Role of the World Bank. The World Bank’s implementation support team will be composed of country office (CO) based Task Team Leader (TTL), and both HQ-based and CO-based operations and specialist staff, who will be closely working with the client on a regular basis on implementation monitoring. Consultants will also be engaged for additional support in the key areas of reforms including governance, fiduciary, and safeguard management. 5. Role of GPE and Local Education Group. GPE and Local Education Group will be critical in providing oversight of the project implementation and maintaining the policy dialogues on key sector policies under the project. GPE and Local Education Group will join the biannual project implementation support missions. 6. Fiduciary arrangements. FM and procurement arrangements will build on and use the capacity developed under the previous projects. The World Bank FM and procurement specialists are based in the World Bank’s CO in Khartoum and will support project implementation through regular reviews and on-time training and capacity building of staff of the client. Formal supervision of fiduciary processes and procedures will be conducted biannually, and implementation support will be provided as required by the World Bank team. 7. Social and environmental safeguards. The World Bank environmental and social development specialists will provide regular implementation support to the Government in the implementation of the ESMF. Page 32 of 40 The World Bank Sudan Basic Education Emergency Support Project (P172812) Implementation Support Resource Requirements 8. During the first two years, it is expected that stronger engagement will be required in terms of operational support as well as M&E. Special attention will be paid to the policy development at system level and implementation support for school improvement component. The World Bank team will ensure timely, efficient, and effective implementation support to the client. Tables 2-1 and 2-2 provide the implementation support plan and the skills mix required for the project. Table 2-1. Implementation Support Plan Resource Estimate (Staff Time Focus Skills Needed Weeks) First 12 • Team leadership • Technical expertise for school • Task Team Leader: 30 months • Education specialist improvement interventions, • Education/operations • Education Data specialist teacher management, reading specialists: 20 • Implementation support interventions, learning • Education data and M&E: and supervision assessment, civil works, 7 • Fiduciary support and governance, and accountability, • Procurement: 6 management and gender • FM: 5 • Environmental and social • Project supervision, and • Environmental: 5 safeguards monitoring and monitoring and reporting • Social: 5 reporting • Procurement training and • Administrative support: 10 supervision • Environment and social monitoring and reporting • Institutional capacity building Team Number of Staff Weeks Skills Needed Number of Trips Comments Per Year Task Team Leader 30 Field trips as required CO-based HQ-based or based in Education Specialist 10 Field trips as required region Education HQ-based or based in 10 Field trips as required Economist/Data Specialist region Operations Officer 10 Field trips as required HQ-based FM Specialist 6 Field trips as required CO-based Procurement Specialist 5 Field trips as required CO-based Social Development 4 Field trips as required CO-based Specialist Environmental Specialist 4 Field trips as required HQ-based Page 33 of 40 The World Bank Sudan Basic Education Emergency Support Project (P172812) Number of Staff Weeks Skills Needed Number of Trips Comments Per Year Gender/Social 5 Field trips as required HQ-based Development Specialist Administrative support 10 Co-based CO-based Note: CO=Country Office. HQ = Headquarters. Page 34 of 40 The World Bank Sudan Basic Education Emergency Support Project (P172812) ANNEX 3: Economic and Financing Analysis COUNTRY: Sudan Sudan Basic Education Support Project 1. This section summarizes the results of the economic and financial analysis carried out to identify the current challenges of the basic education sector in Sudan and to underline the potential economic gains to the society that could be sought through the Project. Education Sector Context and Labor Market Outcomes 2. Sudan is far from the Education SDG 4 of universal primary completion because of the high number of dropouts within the primary cycle. Access to Grade 1 in basic education is relatively high with four out of five six-year-olds being enrolled on time (see table A3-1), however, the dropout rate is very high, leading to 55 percent basic completion rate in 2014. The retention within the basic cycle slightly improved from 48.2 percent in 2014 to 49.3 percent in 2018 but remains largely inadequate to generate larger efficiencies. Grade 6 survival rate improved by 2.3 p.p. from 64.3 percent in 2015 to 66.6 percent in 2018. Table A3-1: Access, enrollment, and completion rates in basic education in Sudan Sudan Urban Rural Net entry rate (6-year-olds) * 82.8% 90.4% 79.9% NER (6-13-year-olds) * 69.1% 85.8% 62.6% GER (6-13-year-olds) * 73.3% 88.0% 67.4% Grade 4 survival rate** 84.7% 97.7% 76.8% Grade 6 survival rate** 66.6% 83.3% 56.5% Grade 8 survival rate** 49.3% 68.2% 37.8% Completion rate (13-year-olds) * 55.0% 58.2% 52.6% Source: authors’ estimates based on the data from Sudan MICS 2014* and School Census 2018** 3. About seven percent of people never attended school in 2014. Real access increased by eight percentage points from 85 percent in 2009 to 93 percent in 2014. Access at age six increased by 30 percentage points from 40 percent in 2009 to 70 percent in 2014. The increase is driven by an increase in access among the bottom-40 percent of the population. System demonstrated growth between 2009 and 2014 with late entry remaining constant at 11 years. Those who are not ever attended school at age 11 will never attend. 4. The poor retention rate in basic education comes from a lack of school demand, in particular, among the poorest. Economic difficulties and behavior such as early marriage, pregnancy, and economic hardships explain the fragility of school demand. The lack of supply (overcrowded classrooms, ‘open-air’ or temporary classrooms, and incomplete schools) also negatively effects retention rates. According to the School Census data, 16 percent of students are enrolled in a school that does not provide full course of basic education cycle (8 grades). In addition, these students are likely to drop out before completion. Page 35 of 40 The World Bank Sudan Basic Education Emergency Support Project (P172812) 5. Repetition rates are relatively low compared to other countries in the SSA region . There was a slight improvement in the repetition rates: from 5.3 percent in 2015 to 4.8 percent in 2018. Though, an estimated SDG 336 million (US$10.4 million) is used annually to deliver basic education services to repeaters and pupils that drop out3. 6. Learning levels of students in basic schools in Sudan are generally weak. Representative evidence from the National Learning Assessment find that on average 39 percent of grade 3 pupils are not able to read a single word and only 5 percent of pupils read fluently (more than 60 words per minute) in Arabic (NLA, 2018). Furthermore, the assessment of reading speed among third graders indicated an average speed of 15 words per minute, which is far below the estimated minimum reading speed of 40 words per minute thought to be necessary to gain understanding of and meaning from the text. The high share of illiterate pupils in grade 3 means that 39 percent of public resources spent on pupils in grades 1-3 are wasted in the system, which is equivalent to SDG 473 million (US$14.6 million). 7. The Internal Efficiency of the system is weak, particularly due to very high dropout rates and low learning achievements of pupils. The IEC at the primary level is particularly low (39 percent), which implies that more than half of public resources are wasted in paying for repeated grades or schooling for students who dropout before cycle completion. Economic Rationale for Public Investment in Sustaining Basic Education Enrollment in Sudan 8. The rationale for public sector financing of basic education is well established. Investments under the Project would strengthen efficiency and equity at the basic level overall, likely contributing to improved learning outcomes at the school level. The pressing needs and challenges for both improved efficiency and equity warrant public sector support consistent with Sudan’s commitment to providing Universal Primary Education of reasonable quality to all children. 9. Investment in basic education in Sudan is justified by the low NER (69 percent) and completion rate (55 percent) and weak learning levels among enrolled students. National Learning Assessment conducted in all 18 states of Sudan found that Grade 3 students performed very poorly. On average, 40 percent of pupil are not able to read a single word. This suggests that there is not only a large proportion of school-age children out of school but even when in school many students are not learning. The Project’s Development Impact 10. The project is expected to contribute positively to Sudan’s education system and national economic development. It aims to sustain enrollment in public schools during the economic crises and pandemic. To that end, it is expected that the proposed interventions will affect the probability of a child completing primary education and transitioning to the secondary level. This, in turn, will yield gains in labor earnings measured 3 Authors’ estimation based on 2018 School Census data and reported USD/SDG exchange rate (Economist). Page 36 of 40 The World Bank Sudan Basic Education Emergency Support Project (P172812) over the course of a standard working life. The key project's economic impact is, therefore, estimated as the incremental benefit accruing to a representative child as the result of effects induced by the program's interventions. 11. Provision of school grants under the project is aimed at incentivizing schools to make better use of existing resources to achieve improved learning and efficiency goals through better retention of students. Gains in internal efficiency will lower the cost to the government for providing basic education: as less students fail and repeat grades, government spends fewer resources. Improvements in teacher knowledge and effort shall result in reduced dropouts in the course of the basic education cycle. Expected Economic Benefits 12. The proposed project is likely to yield positive results on the education quality in the medium-run as it: (a) targets an area of intervention, basic education, that is critical for long-term school performance, as measured by standardized assessment; (b) supports and complements the Government’s reforms in this area; and (c) provides instrumental additional funding to support both cost-effective and well-targeted basic education programs. 13. The analysis was therefore restricted to the quantifiable economic impact and benefits. These comprise: (a) impact on internal efficiency estimates and cost savings, that is, government budget savings due to reduction of ‘inefficient’ expenditures on pupils that drop out (Internal Efficiency Gains), and (b) impact of completion probabilities in basic education, that is, direct private returns to schooling (External Efficiency Gains). 14. The importance of schooling and learning to economic growth and development is well documented. Education is central to achieving the goals of eliminating extreme poverty and boosting shared prosperity. High levels of education are often associated with improved economic opportunities, including higher improved access to jobs and higher lifetime wages. Education is also correlated with healthier life choices and increased voice and agency, the ability to make decisions and act on them. At the country-level, economic benefits include increased rates of economic growth through gains in productivity and a greater capacity to adopt new technologies. But education is not only instrumental in promoting development; it is also by itself an end of development. 15. However, recent evidence suggests that learning is more important for earnings and development than educational attainment (which fails to account for the quality of education). This issue is of particular importance in countries, including Sudan, where school enrollment has increased rapidly and therefore educational attainment but, in some cases, accompanied by a decline in the quality of schooling with adverse consequences for student learning. When student learning levels are low, this provides a strong indication that education systems are not performing as intended. 16. Education is a good predictor of wellbeing. Among Sudan’s population with higher education, two thirds are in the richest quintile of the population compared to only six percent among population without education Page 37 of 40 The World Bank Sudan Basic Education Emergency Support Project (P172812) (figure A3-1). Probability of being poor – in the bottom 40 percent – is 61 percent lower for people with basic education compared to people without education. Figure A3-1: Distribution of population in Sudan by education attainment and wealth quintiles Higher 4.4% 8.8% 16.7% 68.2% Secondary 6.7% 10.2% 16.1% 24.3% 42.7% Primary 15.5% 20.0% 21.8% 26.2% 16.5% None 30.4% 28.9% 21.7% 13.0% 6.0% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Poorest Second Middle Fourth Richest Source: estimations based on Sudan MICS 2014/15 data. 17. Educational attainment is highly associated with literacy rates. Even among those that never completed basic education, the share of literate people is above 80 percent after completing at least six grades compared to only 15 percent of people that attended only first grade of basic education (figure A3-2). Figure A3-2: Women's literacy rates in Sudan, 2014 Women's literacy rates 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Rural Poorest Middle Richest G4 Second Fourth G1 G2 G3 G5 G6 G7 G8 Highest grade of basic education attended Weath index quintile Location Urban Source: estimations based on Sudan MICS, 2014/15 data. Note: a woman is literate if she is able to read parts of sentence or able to read whole sentence Impact on Internal Efficiency Estimates and Cost Savings 18. The Project intends to sustain enrollment in public schools in Sudan, which will lead to improved Internal Efficiency of Basic Education through preventing children from dropping out, thereby improving survival rates between Grades 1 and 8. Page 38 of 40 The World Bank Sudan Basic Education Emergency Support Project (P172812) 19. The current economic analysis presents estimates of the efficiency gains in basic education to 2021, based on enrollment estimates employing UN population projections, average values from recent years for intake into Grade 1 of basic education (from the School Census) relative to population, and recent trends in promotion and retention in each grade of basic school. The analysis employs the same projections as the current Education Sector Strategic Plan (ESSP) including for the GDP growth (IMF/World Bank), share of domestic resources spent on education (a 0.5 p.p. annual increase from 9.8 percent in 2017/18). 20. Gains from improved Internal Efficiency. The project objective is to sustain enrollment in public schools meaning that the enrollment in target schools is to increase at the rate of the population growth – 2.5 percent per annum: from 5.40 million pupils to 5.54 million in 2021. The analysis is built on the assumption that survival and repetition rates will remain unchanged. 21. We compare inefficient government spending under the expected scenario and a scenario, under which there is no increase in the student enrollment. The following formula is used to estimate inefficient spending: ∗ = ∑ ( ) ∗ , = where is the dropout rates in grade in year in target schools; is the number of pupils enrolled in grade in year ; is the projected government spending per pupil in year . 22. According to the results of the analysis, the share of inefficient public spending in public schools is equivalent to 16 percent of overall public expenditures in education in Sudan. If all public schools will sustain the current level of survival, the share of inefficient public spending would decrease by 0.6 percentage points by 2021 compared to the scenario where the enrollment numbers are stagnant. This improvements in spending efficiency translate into the Government savings in basic education equivalent to SDG 122 million (US$ 2.6 million) in 2019-2021 4. Impact on External Efficiency: Impact on Completion Probabilities in Basic Education 23. The proposed Project is likely to sustain the current level of survival rates and completion probabilities in basic education. In 2014, only 57.4 percent of 10-to-13-year-olders had at least four years of completed basic education, i.e. more than third of that cohort failed to complete lower primary education on time (table A3- 2). We expect that by 2021 there would be 40 thousand more pupils in grades 6-8 in public schools with a high probability of the majority (80 percent) being literate and functionally numerate. 4 Estimations based on the enrollment projections and the current official exchange rate – 47.5 SDG/USD. Page 39 of 40 The World Bank Sudan Basic Education Emergency Support Project (P172812) Table A3-2: Education Completion Rates in Sudan (2014) Male, Male, Female, Female, Total Urban Rural Urban Rural Grade 4, lower basic (10-13-year-olds) 64.6 50.8 68.9 56.9 57.5 Grade 6 (12-15-year-olds) 48.2 38.0 47.0 45.1 43.3 Grade 8, upper basic (14-17-year-olds) 37.5 29.7 46.1 35.0 35.4 Source: authors’ estimation based on Sudan MICS data 24. Conclusion. The project is designed to support activities that address key issues in basic education identified by the 2018 Education Sector Analysis and the ESSP for 2019-2024: limited and inequitable access to basic education due to supply-side and demand-side constraints; poor quality of education service delivery and low student learning levels; and insufficient institutional capacity for efficient education system planning and management. 25. Project objectives and performance targets are based on the detailed financial analysis and simulations using assumptions for basic education enrollment, student repetition, student-teacher ratios, class size, and economic growth, share of public resource to education (and to basic education) and the official exchange rate. These objectives and targets are financially feasible if the national education budget is supported by external funding. The selected activities draw on international experiences and best-practice and past projects in Sudan and elsewhere as relevant. Page 40 of 40