Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No: ICR00004982 IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION AND RESULTS REPORT TF 016628/P125509 ON A GRANT IN THE AMOUNT OF US$11.8 MILLION TO THE DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO FOR THE DRC CATALYTIC PROJECT TO STRENGTHEN THE INS December 18, 2019 Poverty and Equity Global Practice Africa Region This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (Exchange Rate Effective October 02, 2019) Currency Unit = Congolese Franc (CDF) CDF 1,662.5 = US$1 FISCAL YEAR July 1 – June 30 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS AfDB African Development Bank BCR Bureau Central de Recensement CAPI Computer-Assisted Personal Interview CAS Country Assistance Strategy DRC Democratic Republic of Congo EMP Environmental Management Plan ENSEA Ecole Nationale Supérieure de Statistique et d'Economie Appliquée (National Statistical and Applied Economics School of the Ivory Coast) ESMP Environmental and Social Management Plan FMS Financial Management Specialist GDP Gross Domestic Product HR Human Resources ICR Implementation Completion and Results Report ICT Information and Communication Technology IDA International Development Association INS Institut national de la Statistique (National Statistical Institute) ISR Implementation Status and Results Report M&E Monitoring and Evaluation NSDS National Strategy for the Development of Statistics NSS National Statistical System PAD Project Appraisal Document PDO Project Development Objective PDS Projet de Développement des Statistiques (Statistics Development Project) PMU Project Management Unit PRINS Projet Catalytique de Renforcement de l’Institut National de la Statitique (Statistics for Results Facility Project) PROCYS Procurement Cycle Tracking System PRSP2 Second Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper PSC Project Steering Committee SRF-CF Statistics for Results Facility-Catalytic Fund STEP Systematic Tracking of Exchanges in Procurement UNFPA United Nations Population Fund Regional Vice President: Hafez M. H. Ghanem Country Director: Jean-Christophe Carret Regional Director: Elisabeth Huybens Practice Manager: Andrew L. Dabalen Task Team Leader(s): Yele Maweki Batana ICR Main Contributor: Melat Assefa Asfaw TABLE OF CONTENTS DATA SHEET .......................................................................................................................... 1 I. PROJECT CONTEXT AND DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES ....................................................... 5 A. CONTEXT AT APPRAISAL .........................................................................................................5 B. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING IMPLEMENTATION ................................................................9 II. OUTCOME .................................................................................................................... 12 A. RELEVANCE OF PDOs ............................................................................................................ 12 B. ACHIEVEMENT OF PDOs (EFFICACY) ...................................................................................... 13 C. EFFICIENCY ........................................................................................................................... 14 D. JUSTIFICATION OF OVERALL OUTCOME RATING .................................................................... 16 E. OTHER OUTCOMES AND IMPACTS ......................................................................................... 17 III. KEY FACTORS THAT AFFECTED IMPLEMENTATION AND OUTCOME ................................ 18 A. KEY FACTORS DURING PREPARATION ................................................................................ 18 B. KEY FACTORS DURING IMPLEMENTATION.......................................................................... 19 IV. BANK PERFORMANCE, COMPLIANCE ISSUES, AND RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME .. 20 A. QUALITY OF MONITORING AND EVALUATION (M&E) ............................................................ 20 B. ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, AND FIDUCIARY COMPLIANCE ..................................................... 21 C. BANK PERFORMANCE ........................................................................................................... 22 D. RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME ....................................................................................... 23 V. LESSONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ............................................................................. 23 ANNEX 1. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND KEY OUTPUTS ........................................................... 26 ANNEX 2. BANK LENDING AND IMPLEMENTATION SUPPORT/SUPERVISION ......................... 33 ANNEX 3. PROJECT COST BY COMPONENT ........................................................................... 35 ANNEX 4. DESCRIPITON OF CHANGES ON THE INITIAL RESULTS FRAMEWORK AFTER RESTRUCTURING ................................................................................................................. 36 ANNEX 5. DESCRIPTION AND STATUS OF INITIAL PDO INDICATORS ...................................... 38 ANNEX 6. ASSESMENT OF PDO- AND INTERMEDIATE-LEVEL INDICATORS ACHIEVEMENT ...... 40 The World Bank DRC Catalytic Project to Strengthen the INS (P125509) DATA SHEET BASIC INFORMATION Product Information Project ID Project Name P125509 DRC Catalytic Project to Strengthen the INS Country Financing Instrument Congo, Democratic Republic of Investment Project Financing Original EA Category Revised EA Category Partial Assessment (B) Partial Assessment (B) Organizations Borrower Implementing Agency Democratic Republic of Congo Institut National de la Statistique (INS) Project Development Objective (PDO) Original PDO The development objective is to strengthen the capacity of INS to generate and disseminate statistical information. Page 1 of 42 The World Bank DRC Catalytic Project to Strengthen the INS (P125509) FINANCING Original Amount (US$) Revised Amount (US$) Actual Disbursed (US$) World Bank Financing 11,800,000 11,800,000 11,040,413 TF-16628 Total 11,800,000 11,800,000 11,040,413 Non-World Bank Financing 0 0 0 Borrower/Recipient 0 0 0 Total 0 0 0 Total Project Cost 11,800,000 11,800,000 11,040,413 KEY DATES Approval Effectiveness MTR Review Original Closing Actual Closing 09-Jun-2014 20-Jan-2015 01-Oct-2018 30-Jun-2017 28-Jun-2019 RESTRUCTURING AND/OR ADDITIONAL FINANCING Date(s) Amount Disbursed (US$M) Key Revisions 28-Jun-2017 4.17 Change in Results Framework Change in Components and Cost Change in Loan Closing Date(s) Reallocation between Disbursement Categories Change in Safeguard Policies Triggered Change in Implementation Schedule 03-Jan-2019 8.11 Change in Loan Closing Date(s) KEY RATINGS Outcome Bank Performance M&E Quality Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory Substantial Page 2 of 42 The World Bank DRC Catalytic Project to Strengthen the INS (P125509) RATINGS OF PROJECT PERFORMANCE IN ISRs Actual No. Date ISR Archived DO Rating IP Rating Disbursements (US$M) Moderately 01 03-Dec-2014 Moderately Satisfactory 0 Unsatisfactory 02 25-Jun-2015 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 1.00 03 10-Feb-2016 Moderately Satisfactory Satisfactory 1.21 Moderately Moderately 04 17-Oct-2016 2.91 Unsatisfactory Unsatisfactory 05 10-Jul-2017 Satisfactory Satisfactory 4.25 06 20-Mar-2018 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 5.46 07 26-Dec-2018 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 8.11 SECTORS AND THEMES Sectors Major Sector/Sector (%) Public Administration 100 Central Government (Central Agencies) 100 Themes Major Theme/ Theme (Level 2)/ Theme (Level 3) (%) Private Sector Development 100 Jobs 100 Public Sector Management 100 Public Administration 28 Administrative and Civil Service Reform 28 Data Development and Capacity Building 72 Data production, accessibility and use 72 Page 3 of 42 The World Bank DRC Catalytic Project to Strengthen the INS (P125509) ADM STAFF Role At Approval At ICR Regional Vice President: Makhtar Diop Hafez M. H. Ghanem Country Director: Eustache Ouayoro Jean-Christophe Carret Director: Marcelo Giugale Elisabeth Huybens Practice Manager: Albert G. Zeufack Andrew L. Dabalen Task Team Leader(s): Franck M. Adoho Yele Maweki Batana ICR Contributing Author: Melat Assefa Asfaw Page 4 of 42 The World Bank DRC Catalytic Project to Strengthen the INS (P125509) I. PROJECT CONTEXT AND DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES A. CONTEXT AT APPRAISAL Context Country Context 1. The Democratic Republic of Congo is one of the largest countries in Africa with an area of 2.3 million square kilometers and a population estimated at 71 million in 2013. Despite its wealth of natural resources, decades of conflicts have rendered the country vulnerable. It has vast mineral wealth and huge water resources, but conflicts and corruption have left it chronically unstable, lacking infrastructure and social services, and falling far short of its economic potential. As a result, the Democratic Republic of Congo remains one of the poorest countries in the world with a per capita gross domestic product (GDP) below US$2301. It was ranked 186 out of 194 countries in the 2012 Human Development Index and 39 over 42 Sub-Saharan countries. 2. At the time of appraisal, the Democratic Republic of Congo’s statistical system was not able to provide either enough information to monitor broad development results or precise targeting of development activities. Sector and Institutional Context and National Priorities 3. Benchmarking the Democratic Republic of Congo ’s statistical situation. According to the World Bank’s Country Statistical Information Database, the Democratic Republic of Congo had an overall Statistical Capacity Index score of 50 in 2013, which was below the global average of 66 and the Sub- Saharan Africa average of 60. The lack of population and housing census was the most important weakness for the Democratic Republic of Congo’s National Statistical System (NSS), since the subsequent lack of a proper sampling frame hampers the reliability of population-based surveys and indicators. But other weaknesses existed compared to countries where the overall statistical production was more constant and timelier. The move to System of National Accounts 1993 would have redressed flaws in the national account’s base year, which will become 2005, but this would have not supported the production of industrial production indexes or producer price indexes (part of the recommended General Data Dissemination System indicators). The lack of an agricultural census for the Democratic Republic of Congo was regrettable, given its immense agricultural potential and the poverty reduction possibilities that agriculture offered, in addition to being one of the growth poles for the development of the country. 4. To address the statistical needs of the country, the Government proposed a five-year action plan through its 2012 National Strategy for the Development of Statistics (NSDS)2 which covered the 2013– 2017 period. It focused on ensuring a comprehensive, effective, and sustainable development of statistics by involving all the stakeholders of the NSS, particularly data producers and users. The diagnostic of the NSS highlighted three major deficiencies: human, institutional (including material), and statistical information. The NSDS also identified several areas that can serve as leverage to strengthen the NSS to 1 Source: World Bank Development Indicators 2012 2 Stratégie Nationale de Développement de la Statistique 2012/13–17. Page 5 of 42 The World Bank DRC Catalytic Project to Strengthen the INS (P125509) meet the country’s vision for statistical development: to have an integrated and well-coordinated NSS able to respond adequately to the needs of users. These areas included institutional reforms; strengthening of human, financial, and material resources; production of data useful to users from different sources (such as administrative records, surveys, and censuses); and improving the use and dissemination of official statistics and access to users. 5. The NSDS considered many challenges surrounding the NSS in the country. This included the incomplete governance mechanism for the NSS and the Institut national de la Statistique (National Statistical Institute, INS), the evolving role of the INS provincial offices, the lack of population data for the previous 28 years, the relatively few INS technical personnel who were qualified across the country including qualified statisticians trained on international standards, the limitation of INS resources to pay staff salary which was already low in relation to the cost of living in the Democratic Republic of Congo, and INS’s dependence on external funding when it comes to major survey operations. 6. There were also donor coordination problems to organize funds and coordinate activities to support statistics. For example, support for statistics in the Democratic Republic of Congo was primarily through independent data collection activities and rarely through joint efforts. At the time, the only two major surveys that mobilized joint donor financing were the 2012 household survey on poverty and the DHS survey being conducted at the time of appraisal. Both survey activities reflected donor coordination problems. Rational for World Bank Assistance 7. The project was strongly aligned with the World Bank’s FY2013–FY2016 Country Assistance Strategy (CAS) for the Democratic Republic of Congo3. The CAS focused on four strategic objectives: (a) increase the effectiveness of the state at the center and at decentralized levels and improve good governance while strengthening the development impact of World Bank operations, (b) boost the competitiveness of the economy by accelerating private sector-led growth that will create jobs, (c) improve social service delivery to raise human development indicators, and (d) address the development deficits contributing to fragility and conflicts in the Democratic Republic of Congo’s eastern provinces. Gender and climate change were treated as cross-cutting issues and were addressed through the above four strategic objectives as relevant. 8. The lack of data including the poverty profile at the time and the weakness of the statistical system in the Democratic Republic of Congo were big challenges to implement the FY2013–FY2016 CAS. For example, the CAS would have been supported by several analytical and advisory activities and 12 lending operations financed under IDA16 and IDA17. It was assumed that strengthening national capacity for results would go a long way in reinforcing the national institution for statistics and enhancing the national capacity for monitoring and evaluation (M&E), which would have been an integral part of the program supported by the World Bank. The Results Framework would have paid attention to gender-disaggregated indicators and projects were planned to report on results quarterly, and the use of surveys and targeted impact evaluations with World Bank-financed operations was to be made systematic. 3 Country Assistance Strategy for the Democratic Republic of Congo For the Period FY2013–FY2016, Report No. 66158-ZR. Page 6 of 42 The World Bank DRC Catalytic Project to Strengthen the INS (P125509) 9. Therefore, under this CAS, the World Bank planned to support the preparation of the household survey in 2013 and help develop the statistics system including the national account statistics through this Statistics for Results Facility (SRF) project (Projet Catalytique de Renforcement de l’Institut National de la Statitique, PRINS) (P125509) and an additional IDA funding for the statistical system under the Statistics Development Project (Projet de Développement des Statistiques, PDS) (P150148). Theory of Change (Results Chain) 10. Based on the PDO statement and information obtained from the initial and restructured Project Appraisal Documents (PADs), the Implementation Completion and Results Report (ICR) has created two theory of changes. Figure 1 below illustrates the results chain by explaining the links between the projects interventions, outputs, intermediate results and the desired outcomes. Figure 2 under Annex 2 illustrates the initial results chain without restructuring. Figure 1: Results Chain, Congo, Dem. Rep. Catalytic Project to Strengthen the INS, Project Development Objectives (PDOs) 11. The PDO is to strengthen the capacity of the INS to generate and disseminate statistical information. The project was financed through a grant from the Statistics for Results Facility-Catalytic Fund (SRF-CF) in the amount of US$11.8 million. It was approved in June 2014 and became effective in January 2015. 12. The project has been restructured twice. The first restructuring was in June 2017 with revisions to the Results Framework, change in components cost and loan closing date, reallocation between disbursement categories, change in safeguard policies that were triggered, and change in implementation schedule. The second restructuring took place in January 2019 to change the loan closing date. Page 7 of 42 The World Bank DRC Catalytic Project to Strengthen the INS (P125509) Key Expected Outcomes and Outcome Indicators 13. The DRC Catalytic Project to Strengthen the INS had two key expected outcomes. • Outcome 1: INS capacity to generate statistical information strengthened • Outcome 2: INS capacity to disseminate statistical information strengthened 14. Before restructuring, the PDO-level results indicators were as follows: • Capacity development measured by number of national data collection activities using the revised sample frame • Data production measured by national accounts produced annually using the updated informal sector and industry estimates • Dissemination of statistical information measured by number of INS statistical products, both data and analytical available on the INS website Components 15. The project consisted of three components: (A) Increasing INS technical capacity, (B) Strengthening the non-technical environment, and (C) Statistical production and dissemination. 16. Component A: Increasing INS technical capacity (US$.86 million at appraisal, US$1.25 million after restructuring, US$.97 million actual disbursement). The objective of this component was to increase the proportion of INS professional staff with formal degrees or on-the-job training in areas related to statistics, demography, economics, and information technology (particularly programming). This was aimed to be supported through ‘study abroad’ programs in degree-granting institutions that are supported by international quality assurance standards and on-the-job training for existing INS staff who are not trained in core statistical fields. 17. Component B: Strengthening the non-technical environment (US$2.94 million at appraisal, US$6.79 million after restructuring, US$7.35 million actual disbursement). The objective of this component was to provide an improved working environment, including better IT infrastructure for INS staff to conduct day to day activities. The objective of this component was planned to be met by: (i) enhancing INS’s institutional management capacity, through management and leadership training in areas related, but not limited to, work planning, human resource management, leadership, project management and fiduciary concepts; (ii) enhancing INS’s fiduciary capacity; through the provision of training on financial management software and IT systems; (iii) improving the working environment by demolishing some of the INS’s office to reconstruct a new building ; and (iv) project management and coordination by providing funds for expenses related to the project management activities. Technical Assistance (TA) was also planned to be financed through learning-by- doing support. 18. Component C: Statistical production and dissemination (US$7.32 million at appraisal, US$ 3.76 million after restructuring, US$ 2.69 million actual disbursement). The objective of this component was to Page 8 of 42 The World Bank DRC Catalytic Project to Strengthen the INS (P125509) increase access, use, and quality of statistical information produced. It aimed to facilitate the development of critical statistical activities, mainly the cartography of the population census and support to national accounts, as well as the development and implementation of archiving and dissemination policies for statistical information. 19. Support to the population and housing census aimed to provide to the cartography phase and the pilot census, which were two key census phases. This sub-component aimed to support the census cartography through TA for the organization of the field work, field staff training in the use of the hardware and software, TA for the design and implementation of the GIS database. This activity would have complemented the planned funding from the Government, African Development Bank (AfDB), United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) and the Japanese Government. It would have also supported the pilot census by financing the field work and TA as needed. Additionally, this sub-component also provided technical assistance to a private firm already hired by the Borrower to help organize fieldwork for the cartography, as well as managing TA and field staff and data processing. (ii) Activities financed to improve national accounts and enterprise census, which involved building an initial list of firms from various sources, validating and extending the list in the field, collecting, processing, analyzing, and reporting the data. (iii) Improved access and interpretability of statistical information , including the following activities: development of a statistical dissemination policy that respects the UN Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics and the African Charter on Statistics with technical assistance ; provision of software for the archiving of data; training in the use of the software with technical assistance ; quality control for the information provided; enhancing internet bandwidth to disseminate the information through the INS web site; and purchase of anti-virus software and Computer hardware also provided. B. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING IMPLEMENTATION Revised PDOs and Outcome Targets 20. The PDO remained unchanged throughout the duration of the project. 21. The first project restructuring modified the Results Framework to reflect the revised scope of activities. The existing three PDO-level indicators were revised to better capture project results while two additional PDO-level indicators were added for the same reason. Five out of the twelve intermediate results indicators were dropped, two were revised and one was revised and changed to become a PDO level indicator. Annex 4 describes in detail original PDO level and intermediate indicators and justification for their changes during restructuring. Revised PDO Indicators 22. The PDO indicators and the intermediate indicators have been revised to more accurately reflect the nature of the activities and the expected timing of delivery of anticipated outputs with the revised closing date. After restructuring, the PDO-level results indicators were as follows: • Capacity development measured by number of INS staff with formal degree in statistics, informatics or demography; and completion rate of the demolition and reconstruction works of INS facilities at Limete. Page 9 of 42 The World Bank DRC Catalytic Project to Strengthen the INS (P125509) • Data production measured by completion rate of activities required prior to starting field work for the cartography of the population census and completion rate of activities required to put in place a master business sample frame for the enterprise statistics. • Dissemination of statistical information measured by number of statistical products available on the INS website. Revised Components 23. Throughout the project’s duration, there was no change in the content of the project’s components. However, on the first restructuring, funds were reallocated within the project’s budget as per table 1. Component C’s initially planned budget to support the cartography activities was transferred to Component B’s demolition and reconstruction activities. Component C’s initially planned budget to finance the technical assistance of the firm hired by the borrower was then transferred to Component A’s training activities (which was already overrun) and the remaining part of the budget was transferred to Component B’s demolition and reconstruction activities. The initially planned contingency budget was also removed and added to Components A and B. In the meantime, regarding the population census, the Project has resized the activity to restrict funding to the pilot mapping and the pilot census. Table 1. Revised Allocations under the First Project Restructuring (US$, millions) Initially Allocated Final Allocated Amount Actual Component Name Amount (after Restructuring) Component Cost Component A: Increasing INS 0.86 1.25 .97 technical capacity Component B: Strengthening the 2.94 6.79 7.35 non-technical environment Component C: Statistical 7.32 3.76 2.7 production and dissemination Contingencies 0.68 0.00 0.0 Other Changes 24. The first restructuring of the project included (a) a revision of the Results Framework (changes to some of the indicators to better capture project results); (b) an extension of the closing date by 22 months from June 30, 2017, to April 30, 2019, to allow sufficient time to complete all remaining project activities; (c) reallocation of funds within project components to ensure sufficient funding for the proposed activities; and (d) triggering of OP/BP 4.11 in anticipation of potential impacts on cultural resources due to the demolition and reconstruction of the INS facilities in Limete. 25. Other key revisions under this first restructuring included change in the implementation schedule and reallocation between disbursement categories. Table 2 describes disbursement category reallocation in detail. 26. The second restructuring of the project extended the project’s closing date by two months, from 30 April, 2019, to June 28, 2019. Page 10 of 42 The World Bank DRC Catalytic Project to Strengthen the INS (P125509) Table 2. Disbursement Category Allocation before and after the First Restructuring of the Project Initially Allocated Amount Restructured Allocated Amount Category of Expenditure (US$) (US$) Goods 386,201 386,201 Consultant and Non-consulting Services 9,533,831 5,983,831 Civil works 950,000 4,560,000 Operating costs 242,222 242,222 Training and workshops 687746 687746 11,800,000 11,800,000 Rationale for Changes and Their Implication on the Original Theory of Change 27. The original Results Framework was revised because the related indicators were beyond the project scope. Below is a summary of the justifications for these changes. Annex 4 describes in detail original PDO-level and intermediate indicators and justification for their changes with restructuring. • National surveys using the revised master sample frame. The indicator was beyond the scope of the project, and the use of a revised master sample frame was only possible if the cartography of the population census was completed, a master sample frame was produced, and national surveys were implemented using the master sample frame. The project only provided partial funding for the cartography, it was unrealistic to link the performance of the project to the use of the results of the cartography. In addition, the remaining time before project closing was not sufficient to complete the planned cartography of the population census. • National accounts produced annually using the updated informal sector and industrial estimates. This indicator was also beyond the project scope. To produce national accounts annually using updated informal sector and industrial estimates, the following activities must be completed: enterprise census and creation of a master sample frame for enterprise survey and an enterprise survey following the enterprise census to provide the needed data to update the national account. The project did not plan to finance the enterprise surveys. 28. The project also experienced several setbacks throughout its duration especially in the beginning quarter of the project’s implementation. Delays in formal approval of the grant agreement by the Borrower caused project effectiveness delays by 9 months and 20 days, making the project start slow. As a result, the project didn’t start implementation as planned. 29. During project design, planned infrastructure activities were under budgeted. Need assessment and feasibility and budgetary studies were conducted during project implementation phase which concluded that the infrastructure development activity needed a significantly larger budget than primarily expected. 30. Population and housing census support activities under component C could not advance as planned. This was primarily because the activity was dependent on factors that were external to the Page 11 of 42 The World Bank DRC Catalytic Project to Strengthen the INS (P125509) project. During the project design, parts of the pilot census and cartography activities were initially planned to be financed through the proceeds of the PRINS project. It was also decided that the selection of the firm and the financing of the contract to be carried out by the borrower. However, the selected firm failed to comply with the World Bank’s fiduciary requirements, making it ineligible for payment. The World Bank also concluded that the firm’s methodology to conduct pilot cartography was not up to international standards. 31. The signature of the restructuring was concluded 12 months after the submission of the request by the Borrower. This happened the day before the initial closing date and did not allow the Project to evolve with scale on the Components initially planned. Additionally, countrywide political climate constantly interrupted survey activities which were caused by lots of political/civil unrest within the city and other provinces. 32. The project was restructured for a second time to allow for enough time to finalize ongoing activities before the project’s closing date. II. OUTCOME A. RELEVANCE OF PDOs Assessment of Relevance of PDOs and Rating 33. The project development objective remained the same throughout project duration. The development objective is to strengthen the capacity of INS to generate and disseminate statistical information. 34. The project aligned with the three key pillars of the NSDS: human capital, institutional resources, and data production and dissemination. INS’s human capital was planned to be supported through capacity development of its staff; institutional resources were planned to be supported by improving its working environment and information and communication technology (ICT) infrastructure and data production and dissemination were planned to be supported through different statistical activities including the population census and the enterprise census. 35. The PDO remained consistent and highly relevant in the World Bank’s 2018 Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) for the Democratic Republic of Congo which mentioned data challenges for evidence- based policy design and monitoring. The World Bank is continuing its support to the Government’s ongoing efforts at rebuilding its statistical capacity through the PDS. The project focuses on addressing immediate data needs while supporting the development of basic infrastructure for statistical operations including cartography of population census, household surveys, and so on, to ensure statistics are produced in compliance with international standards. The ongoing efforts under the PDS clearly show that there is more work to be done to improve the country’s statistical capacity, and the PRINS project was relevant. 36. Therefore, the relevance of the PDO is rated High. Page 12 of 42 The World Bank DRC Catalytic Project to Strengthen the INS (P125509) B. ACHIEVEMENT OF PDOs (EFFICACY) Assessment of Achievement of Each Objective/Outcome 37. Based on the PDO statement, there were two intended outcomes. • Outcome 1: INS capacity to generate statistical information strengthened. • Outcome 2: INS capacity to disseminate statistical information strengthened. Project Performance without the Revision of Outcome Targets 38. Despite the initial implementation challenges, the PRINS project was progressing toward the achievement of its objectives. By July 2016, two years after project effectiveness, disbursement rate had increased from 25 % in June 2017 to 36 % in October 2016, significant advancement was made in the preparation of the census cartography: pilot phase for the census cartography had already started and pilot phase of the enterprise census was completed; preparatory documents for the rehabilitation and reconstruction of the INS facilities were completed including the preparation of an Environmental and Social Management Plan (ESMP); the training of 23 Congolese students was ongoing with the students already enrolled at the Institute of Statistics and Applied Economics in Abidjan, Ivory Coast (Ecole Nationale Supérieure de Statistique et d'Economie Appliquée, ENSEA); and the INS had already started developing dissemination policy to release statistical products online. The project was also renting office space for the INS census office (Bureau Central de Recensement [BCR]). However due to the initial project delays, there was not enough time to complete planned activities. 39. The first two PDO-level indicators could not show any project progress because they focused on the long-term outcomes of the project which were difficult to achieve during the project’s duration. These were (a) number of national data collection activities using the revised sample frame and (b) national accounts produced annually using the updated informal sector and industrial estimates. Some activities required to help achieve these targets were also beyond the scope of the project. The target under the third PDO-level indicator ‘number of statistical products available on the INS website’ was also set too high. Therefore, the projects PDO level indicators could not progress. Annex 5 gives detailed explanation and status of initial PDO-level indicator results with table 5.1 summarizing the status of PDO- and intermediate-level Indicators before restructuring. 40. Therefore, the project partly achieved its objectives (intended outcomes). 41. Project performance with the revision of outcome targets. After the first restructuring of the project, the PDO-level indicators in the Results Framework for both outcomes focused on measuring INS technical and non-technical environment through measuring the number of new INS staff with formal degree in statistics, informatics, or demography; and completion rate of the demolition and reconstruction works. The other focus was on measuring INS’s capacity to generate and disseminate statistics through the increased number of statistical products available on the INS website; completion rate of activities required prior to starting the field work for the cartography of the population census; and completion rate of generation and dissemination capacity of survey activities. Page 13 of 42 The World Bank DRC Catalytic Project to Strengthen the INS (P125509) 42. Three out of the five PDO-level indicators were fully achieved, while the remaining two have been partially achieved. Four out of six intermediate results indicators are fully achieved, while out of the remaining two, one remains partially achieved and the other unachieved. Annex 6 describes in detail the status of PDO-level indicator results with table 6.1 summarizing the status of PDO- and intermediate-level indicators with restructuring. 43. Fifteen new young professionals are now supporting the INS to carry out its various statistical activities. A total of 248 existing INS staff have received short-term trainings on various types of statistical modules including SPSS, STATA, R, CSPRO software, CAPI (Computer-Assisted Personal Interview), and demographic projections. The INS financial management system has been updated and IT equipment for administrative staff have been improved. The INS now has a state-of-the-art office building with six levels including offices, training rooms, library, archive, and printing areas. The institute had developed a data archiving and dissemination policy, for the project’s duration, and the project supported funds to run the INS website where some statistical outputs were published. All the mentioned achieved activities significantly enabled the institute to produce and disseminate statistical information. 44. Therefore, the project almost fully achieved its objectives (intended outcomes) after restructuring. Justification of Overall Efficacy Rating 45. The overall efficacy of the project without restructuring is rated Modest and with restructuring is rated Substantial. C. EFFICIENCY Assessment of Efficiency and Rating Economic Analysis 46. At the time of appraisal, economic benefits of better information were analyzed using the International Monetary Fund’s data on incremental capital-output ration for the period of immediate and longer-term post-conflict period. The data showed that there was a lack of information on investment opportunities. Hence, better information would have allowed targeting of investments of high return projects. The PRINS project has started setting up the building blocks of a strong statistical institute that will produce and disseminate statistics, hence contributing significantly to the long-term accessibility of information in the Democratic Republic of Congo. 47. The PAD referred to a conservative analysis done elsewhere in Africa showing that the cost of training a Statistician and Economist Engineer (Ingénieur Statisticien Economiste) can be recouped by savings provided relative to two months of an international consultant’s time, even including salary costs for the young staff.4 This analysis showed that there are important returns to investing in staff training and hiring trained statisticians rather than relying on local and international consultants to carry out 4See the ‘Implementation Completion and Results Report (IDA-38780) on a credit in the amount of SDR 6.7 million (US$ 10.0 million equivalent) to the Government of Burkina Faso for the Development of the National Statistical System Project’, World Bank Report Number 1991. Page 14 of 42 The World Bank DRC Catalytic Project to Strengthen the INS (P125509) routine work. In the case considered, the services of one month of a resident international consultant represented four years’ salary of a young statistician and nearly two years’ salary if the three years’ training costs are included. At the time of appraisal, local training for statisticians existed, but it was not aligned with international standards and did not have external quality control procedures. The training produced few graduates annually and thus the INS relied on international consultants to carry out its statistical activities. Therefore, recent addition of young professionals in the institute and the technical assistance and hands-on-training given to existing staff significantly reduced INS’s costs of hiring external consultants who normally support its survey activities even in the future. 48. Investment in the infrastructure of the INS: The project planned to improve the fiduciary performance, and human resources of the INS. As a result, short-term training on financial management given for INS administrative staff improved the institutes governance and contributed to the productivity of the institute. The working environment of the INS’s staff has significantly improved because of the newly constructed multi-story office building. This building enabled the introduction of new INS services, technologies and programs. There are rooms to conduct trainings of enumerators, staff and stakeholders; mini-data center and IT kiosks for storage of statistical information; mini-library; and space for accommodating additional staff as needed. All the above activities not only increased the day to day productivity of the institute but benefited the INS in its short- and long-term functions. 49. During project appraisal, the cost of the then planned population and housing census was expected to increase substantially based on the information on the cost of other African countries census activities. This was because of the 30-year gap between censuses in the Democratic Republic of Congo in addition to the lack of investment in human, technical, and physical resources in the NSS including the INS. Therefore, the then planned increased use of the CAPI technology was expected to keep costs at the same level, or lower, with the use of traditional methods, which leads to an expected gain in quality of data. The same logic applies in the case of the ongoing Democratic Republic of Congo enterprise census whose preparatory works and pilot phase were supported under the PRINS project. 50. Based on the reasons mentioned earlier, costs involved in achieving the operation’s objectives were reasonable in comparison with both benefits and value for money. Aspects of Design and Implementation 51. Focus on the National Statistical Office instead of the NSS. The NSDS focused on ensuring a comprehensive, effective, and sustainable development of statistics by involving all the stakeholders of the NSS, particularly the data producers and users. At the time of appraisal, governance mechanisms for the NSS and INS were incomplete and the existing legal framework and the PRSP institutional arrangements made the INS the only hub for support to the NSS because of its central role in the production of key socioeconomic data. It was also clear that the project could not address the needs of the system and that activities should be realigned to focus on feasible and attainable activities that could have ripple effects on the NSS and affect important change in the INS. 52. The project was planned to be implemented and monitored by three main bodies which were the Project Steering Committee (PSC), responsible for the coordination and supervision of the project; the Project Management Unit (PMU) in the INS, which was in charge of the fiduciary management of the project; and project focal points who provided technical inputs for activities implemented under each Page 15 of 42 The World Bank DRC Catalytic Project to Strengthen the INS (P125509) component. The planned three main bodies were not fully operational. For example, the PSC was formed, and members were planned to be incentivized through counterpart funds which was managed separately following government rules. These funds were quickly exhausted creating a gap in funding the PSC/PMU meetings and operations, and the indemnification of INS counterparts. Hence, the three main bodies did not meet, and the PSC rarely provided operational guidance for the project. 53. The initially planned project implementation sequence was the following: new staff to be recruited for the first two years of execution and the INS would have been capacitated to carry out its other activities for the rest of the project’s duration. However, low INS human resource and fiduciary capacity remained a challenge, and the plan was not accomplished, especially since the counterparts were only assigned to procurement and financial management. The Project ended without the installation of internal audit or monitoring and evaluation counterparts as planned. 54. Project restructuring improved project disbursement rate. The PMUs efficiency significantly increased after the first restructuring of the project. This was because it incorporated additional key personnel in its team. Procurement of the works contract was carried out smoothly, with only 4.44 % overrun. The project disbursed 93. 56% of its overall allocated amount of US$ 11.8 million and the project operations cost diverged by approximately 20 %. The second restructuring of the project extended the project’s closing date by two months which also helped to close the project smoothly. Table 3 shows the allocated amount and actual disbursement by category. Table 3. Project’s Allocated Budget and Actual Disbursement by Category Category Allocated amount (US$, Actual Disbursement Percentage millions) (US$, millions) Goods 0.39 0.38 97.48 Consultants and non-consulting services 5.98 4.47 74.75 Civil works 4.50 4.70 104.44 Training and workshops 0.69 0.68 98.55 Operating costs 0.24 0.29 120.83 55. Therefore, the project’s total efficiency of the project is rated Substantial. D. JUSTIFICATION OF OVERALL OUTCOME RATING 56. Since the project’s PDO level indicators were revised during restructuring, split rating is applied in assessing the achievement of each objective/outcome. Below is the rating for the project’s performance with and without revision of outcome targets. 57. The overall outcome of the project without restructuring is rated Moderately Unsatisfactory with relevance assessed as High, efficacy assessed as Modest, and efficiency assessed as Substantial. The overall outcome rating of the project with restructuring is rated Moderately Satisfactory, with relevance assessed as High, efficacy assessed as Substantial, and efficiency assessed as Substantial. 58. Finally, based on the split rating application to the project as shown in table 4, the overall outcome of the project is rated Moderately Satisfactory. Page 16 of 42 The World Bank DRC Catalytic Project to Strengthen the INS (P125509) Table 4. Application of Split Rating evaluation Without Restructuring With Restructuring Relevance High Efficacy (PDO) Modest Substantial Efficiency Substantial 1 Outcome ratings Moderately Moderately Unsatisfactory satisfactory 2 Numerical value of the outcome ratings a 3 4 3 Disbursement US$4,169,727.25 US$7,630,272.75 4 Share of disbursement (%) 0.35 0.65 5 Weighted value of the outcome rating (Row 2 × Row 1.06 2.6 4) 6 Final outcome rating 3.65 Note: a. Highly Unsatisfactory (1); Unsatisfactory (2); Moderately Unsatisfactory (3); Moderately Satisfactory (4); Satisfactory (5); Highly Satisfactory (6). E. OTHER OUTCOMES AND IMPACTS Gender 59. The project’s capacity-building activities included gender indicators. For example, 15 percent of the technical trainees were female and 21 percent of the staff who received training were female. Both targets exceeded their expectations. Institutional Strengthening 60. The project has significantly strengthened the INS through its support to the technical and non- technical environment. The INS’s technical staff have received different types of statistical trainings; and the administrative staff have received training on financial management. The INS now has an improved office space and ICT equipment and software have been upgraded for the administrative staff. All the abovementioned activities have made the INS more visible and credible to the public including its governmental and development partners. 61. The statistical outputs of a strengthened INS support efficient public and private sector investment decisions in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Improved and reliable statistical outputs indirectly support better targeting of investments based on population or poverty distributions and central and provincial ministries to better manage development results. The country’s management capacity will also be better through the provision of more accurate and timely statistical information, particularly on GDP. Mobilizing Private Sector Financing 62. There is no activity that supported the private sector financing under the project. The statistical activities supported in this project involved the generation and provision of statistical products that are Page 17 of 42 The World Bank DRC Catalytic Project to Strengthen the INS (P125509) public in nature. In the current environment, they offer limited opportunities for revenue generation because they are financed by public funds and official development assistance. Additionally, INS’s institutional arrangement does not enable generation of funds. Poverty Reduction and Shared Prosperity 63. Timely and quality statistical information are the backbones for evidence-based poverty reduction interventions and strong data are relevant for policy making and other users. 64. The project had been planned to contribute to the implementation of the second Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP2) document, and the NSDS implementation. The PRSP2 document was planning to institutionalize the move toward multiyear budgeting through medium-term expenditure frameworks and the government also explicitly committed to institutional performance evaluation on a regular basis. Both activities needed additional statistical information from the INS and other members of the NSS. Therefore, the project’s support in strengthening INS’s central role in the production of key socioeconomic data makes it highly relevant in the long-term reduction of poverty and sharing prosperity. Other Unintended Outcomes and Impacts 65. There were no unintended outcomes and impacts under the project. III. KEY FACTORS THAT AFFECTED IMPLEMENTATION AND OUTCOME A. KEY FACTORS DURING PREPARATION 66. Overall, the World Bank carried out a good ex ante evaluation of the project to identify the activities that would ultimately enable the INS to produce and disseminate statistical data. The project activities have been well thought out and it was clear that trained staff, better working environment, and a statistical web portal will create an impact on the INS. 67. During project design, in-depth assessment of the INS was carried out and the findings showed that there were difficulties in the areas of technical skills and human resource capacity to produce and disseminate statistical activities. INS office spaces were dilapidated, unsafe, and inadequate for a modern statistical office which required computer-based work and most of the project target baselines were recorded as zero because there was either an absence or lack of statistical activity. After the restructuring of the project, the PDO and baseline data remained the same, but targets were adjusted to be realistic and measurable to achieve the project outcomes. 68. The design of the project before and after restructuring remained simple and straightforward however the project activity sequencing was too ambitious. In theory the sequencing of project activities was logical, and the first two components, increasing INS technical capacity and strengthening the non- technical environment, were planned to contribute directly into the third component, statistical production and dissemination. However, during the project’s implementation, most of the main activities were executed parallelly; hence, the expected benefits from the first and second components could not have directly benefited the third. Page 18 of 42 The World Bank DRC Catalytic Project to Strengthen the INS (P125509) 69. The approach in identifying stakeholders and beneficiary groups was appropriate. In line with the SRF principles, the project approached and encouraged donors who were highly likely to fund the census activities and were interested in statistical development in the country. As the project outcomes are public in nature, data users were beneficiaries. To identify direct beneficiaries, the project benchmarked Democratic Republic of Congo’s statistical situation, and after careful analysis the project decided to support the INS through its staff, while indirectly helping central and provincial ministries and others who would benefit from improved statistical information. 70. There were adequate risk and mitigation measures that were identified and implemented throughout the project’s duration. The OP/BP 4.01 (Environmental Assessment) policy was triggered and therefore an Environmental Management Plan (EMP) was prepared and disclosed before project appraisal. During implementation, the client prepared and published an Environmental and Social Management Plan (ESMP) on both its website and the World Bank website. The client was also prepared to mitigate any OP/BP 4.11 (Physical Cultural Resources) policy trigger and all personnel required to comply with these mentioned policies were hired by the borrower. 71. The original project’s overall risk rating was Substantial. This was because of the relatively low capacity of the INS and census-related risks (complexity of logistics, insecurity in some provinces, and timely resources mobilization). The INS’s low capacity was directly addressed through project activities, which were expected to mitigate the endogenous risks. But there was always the uncertainty that Government funding will not be disbursed on time to support the population census. B. KEY FACTORS DURING IMPLEMENTATION 72. After the project’s first restructuring, the project’s overall risk category was rated High. This was because of the complex political and governance environment and the uncertainty surrounding the political context of the Democratic Republic of Congo. To reduce project implementation risks, the World Bank team worked closely with the country’s fiduciary team and other development partners, mainly the AfDB and the UNFPA. Furthermore, in collaboration with the UNFPA, the team hired a seasoned demographer as permanent technical adviser to the census office (BCR) to support the implementation of the population census. 73. Factors subject to government and/or implementing entities control. The Government was committed to the project’s progress throughout its design and implementation. 74. Most of the INS’s operating budget depended on the PRINS project funds. This included cost of running the website, cost of rent to the census bureau (before the project was restructured), transport cost to and from the project office to the INS premises, transport cost from the INS premises to project survey sites, telephone cost for internal communication between focal points, other INS staff, and the PMU. The budget allocated under the PRINS project for these activities was not enough, hence creating a setback in the overall smooth implementation of the project. 75. Factors subject to World Bank control. The World Bank task team provided support to the borrower during project preparation and implementation. The client also benefited from the regular World Bank implementation support and technical missions. Page 19 of 42 The World Bank DRC Catalytic Project to Strengthen the INS (P125509) 76. The World Bank team communicated regularly with the client, which was effective. Withdrawal applications and approvals were done through Client Connection. Procurement was done through the Procurement Cycle Tracking System (PROCYS) initially and subsequently through Systematic Tracking of Exchanges in Procurement (STEP). The use of these systems provided avenues for fast and convenient services while ensuring proper documentation of project transactions. 77. However, the borrower faced challenges in migrating from PROCYS to STEP which proved to be more challenging than initially estimated. Nevertheless, the World Bank team supported the PMU to resolve key procurement issues as quickly as possible. The World Bank also provided periodic training to the project implementing team particularly on procurement. IV. BANK PERFORMANCE, COMPLIANCE ISSUES, AND RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME A. QUALITY OF MONITORING AND EVALUATION (M&E) M&E Design 78. The three PDO-level indicators outlined in the initial Project Paper did not fully reflect the nature of the project’s activities and the expected timing of delivery of anticipated outputs. After restructuring, these PDO-level and intermediate indicators were modified to reflect the revised scope of activities. 79. Under the project management arrangements, the M&E unit inside the PMU was responsible for facilitating the delivery of the outcomes under each project components and subcomponents by coordinating with the focal points, the INS and the PMU. The unit was also responsible for producing progress reports, including collecting data from different sources inside the INS to update the Results Framework. M&E Implementation 80. All indicators included in the Results Framework were measured and reported in the project ’s World Bank Implementation Status and Results Reports (ISRs); however, the original PDO- and intermediate-level indicators were revised during the first restructuring of the project. This was because the initially designed indicators were not suitable to accurately reflect and measure the nature of the project’s progress. The first restructuring of the project fixed this issue and soon after, project progress became better monitored, and was clearly reflected on the Results Framework. 81. The last ISR of December 26, 2018, rated M&E as Moderately Unsatisfactory. This was mainly because there were delays or gaps in between hiring key project personnel which included the projects coordinator, technical coordinator, internal auditor, and M&E specialist. Project progress reports were not submitted on a timely basis and the length of the process of hiring key project personnel created delays in project reporting and evaluating project performance. Inconsistencies in the project target measurement were also recorded. 82. Due to lack of previous statistical activities, most of the baseline data were recorded as zero. Page 20 of 42 The World Bank DRC Catalytic Project to Strengthen the INS (P125509) M&E Utilization 83. The progress of the project’s indicators was clearly communicated in the ISRs. The project results indicators were measured directly by the methodology laid out under the description of each PDO and intermediate results indicators and progress results were measured against the design of the project. As of project effectiveness, most ISRs rated the progress toward the achievement of the PDO Moderately Satisfactory. 84. The M&E of the project undoubtedly helped inform subsequent interventions that are similar to the project. For example, the PDS was a direct result of the PRINS project. Justification of Overall Rating of Quality of M&E 85. There were moderate shortcomings in the M&E system’s design before restructuring, implementation, and utilization of the project. However, the M&E system was generally sufficient to assess the achievement of the objectives and test the links in the results chain. M&E findings were disseminated through project ISR and were used to inform the direction of the project, strategy development, and the design and implementation of the project PDS. 86. Therefore the overall rating for M&E is Substantial. B. ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, AND FIDUCIARY COMPLIANCE 87. Based on the project’s initial grant agreement, the borrower complied with the legal covenants put in place before the project became effective. These included putting in place an operational project accounting system and a project implementation team with key personnel, recruiting external auditors, and putting in place an oversight committee. 88. The legal covenants remained the same after project restructuring. However, after the project became effective, there was a high turnover of key personnel in the PMU. The project’s oversight committee, whose meetings were supposed to be supported with counterpart funds, never took place. 89. Before restructuring, the project Environmental Assessment category was rated B - partial assessment. As part of the project’s foreseen demolition and construction activities, the project triggered the OP/BP 4.01 (Environmental Assessment) policy and the project’s census activities triggered the OP/BP 4.10 (Indigenous Peoples) policy. 90. An EMP was prepared and disclosed before appraisal to address the OP/BP 4.01 policy and as part of the Government’s compliance, a social safeguards plan was planned to be prepared during project implementation that meets the requirements of OP 4.10 (Indigenous People) policy as well as addressing the needs of other vulnerable groups in the census. 91. After restructuring, the safeguard risk for the demolishing and constructing facilities in the INS triggered the OP/BP 4.01 (Environmental Assessment) policy. Mitigation measures were put in place and the client developed an ESMP that was validated by the World Bank and published on both INS and World Bank websites. The client was also prepared to mitigate any trigger under the OP/BP 4.11 (Physical Page 21 of 42 The World Bank DRC Catalytic Project to Strengthen the INS (P125509) Cultural Resources) policy by putting management and provision methods on the ESMP it has prepared for the highly unlikely possibility that the construction activity will find any physical cultural resources on site. 92. The client hired an international procurement specialist to reduce the risk in procuring the works contract, a building specialist to help them follow up on building progress, and a quality and safeguard specialist to monitor mitigation measures during the implementation of construction activities. The design and supervision consultancy firm hired by the borrower also had a safeguards specialist who verified if the mitigation measures were put in place by the contractor. 93. However, the INS never formalized the project’s draft Grievance Redress Mechanism that was developed with the support of the World Bank and complaints were informally handled by the INS management. Therefore, there was no evidence that the informally handled complaints were addressed properly. C. BANK PERFORMANCE Quality at Entry 94. Given the risks involved in carrying out such kind of project in the Democratic Republic of Congo, the team was commended for taking mitigation measures during project design and implementation of the project. The project design reflected the immediate and long-term statistical data needs of the country. It also reflected the strong interest and commitment of the stakeholders (including the Government and other development partners) in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The project was strategically relevant as it was aligned with the Democratic Republic of Congo’s NSDS and the PRSP2 implementation (see relevance section). 95. The technical aspects at entry were well addressed by the team including the following lessons learned from the Democratic Republic of Congo portfolio and other similar operations in other countries. A financial analysis of the project has been conducted and an indicative information for the economic benefits of the project has also been presented during the project appraisal. In addition, financial management assessment, procurement capacity, and risk assessment of the implementing agency were undertaken, and risk mitigation measures were proposed. Environmental and social safeguard policies were respected, and the M&E framework was rated Moderately Satisfactory during the first ISR in December 2014. Quality of Supervision 96. In general, the World Bank’s task team provided strong technical support to the PMU even though the task team leader was not based in the Democratic Republic of Congo to supervise the overall project implementation on a day-to-day basis. It also provided continuous implementation support to the INS and sharing technical knowledge as needed. Page 22 of 42 The World Bank DRC Catalytic Project to Strengthen the INS (P125509) 97. Some of the risk mitigating measures outlined in the original PAD were implemented while the rest were delayed. This was caused by the high turnover of key personnel within the PMU. Justification of Overall Rating of Bank Performance 98. Given the shortcomings that arose during the beginning of the projects implementation, and the continuous challenges faced during the projects lifespan, the overall World Bank performance is rated as Moderately Satisfactory. D. RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME 99. The SRF-CF focused on supporting critical statistical needs of the country. The SRF’s aim was to stimulate support to the implementation of the NSDS and similar statistical development plans, promote a systemwide approach in statistics at the country level, promote stronger coordination and partnership between users and producers of statistics, and deliver more efficient and effective aid and technical assistance for strengthening statistical systems and results measurement. 100. The project has significantly helped to improve resource mobilization to support the NSS and donor coordination to the country’s statistics system. For example, the Democratic Republic of Congo now has a Statistics Thematic Group that meets regularly to discuss statistical support in the country. 101. The follow-on PDS project has continued its support the sustainability of the development outcomes of the PRINS project. For example, PDS is continuing supporting the training of Congolese students to obtain scholarships, providing technical assistance to the census activities and conducting the enterprise census and other survey activities. 102. However, conducting survey activities in the Democratic Republic of Congo remains challenging. A large part of the country’s territory is difficult to access from any given point in the country, communication between provincial capitals is difficult, and access to rural areas is complicated. There remains a large technical capacity need within the INS and the new young professional hires are far from filling this gap. Additionally, the country has a complex political and governance environment, which will create challenges for the INS to carry out statistical activities. Capacity in the INS has improved because of the project; however, it is not enough. 103. Therefore, the risk to development outcome is Substantial. V. LESSONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 104. Sequencing of activities. The project was designed in a logical framework where the outputs of the first two components would have served as inputs to the third one. However, this project activity sequencing was later found to be too ambitious and all three components were implemented at the same time. Therefore, project sequencing should carefully consider project implementation risks and challenges and should avoid making outputs of project components inputs to other components of the same project in this context. Page 23 of 42 The World Bank DRC Catalytic Project to Strengthen the INS (P125509) 105. Results Framework Design: The projects initial PDO level indicators focused on the long-term outcomes of the project and depended on activities that were beyond the projects scope. Therefore, it was very difficult to measure project results during project implementation. Hence Results Framework should be based on measurable targets that are realistically achievable in the medium term, rather than longer term outputs. 106. Design of implementation arrangements: The project had full legal capacity and operating autonomy and as part of the implementation arrangement, the Director General (DG) of the INS was designated to be the project’s coordinator. However, between project preparation and its start, the Project witnessed two changes of Director General. This instability at the management level was a risk factor for the proper implementation of the project by making the PMU directly dependent on external factors. The selection of the project coordinator should be given careful attention during project implementation arrangements, and legal covenants should assure that competent staff are hired before project effectiveness. The PMU should also be systemized, and operational manuals, regular documentations and checklists should be prepared for smooth project transfer from one key personnel to another. 107. Adherence to agree upon implementation arrangements: The PAD clearly stated that the project would adhere to an implementation approach involving a PSC, a PMU, and INS focal points. This arrangement caused delays and other unexpected issues during implementation. The PSC was planned to oversee the activities of the project, while the INS focal points would have given technical inputs and needs to the PMU. The PSC members were planned to be incentivized through counterpart funds which was managed separately following governmental rules. These arrangements were not smooth and there was no standard operating procedure among each party which created difference of opinions among parties during implementation. Additionally, government funds were exhausted creating a gap in funding the PSC/PMU meetings and operations. Therefore, implementation arrangements should be clearly specified in an operation manual and complexities within countries and institutions should be considered to help design a smooth implementation arrangement. 108. Cofinancing arrangement of project activities should be better designed. Before the restructuring, the project initially planned to cofinance major project activities alongside other stakeholders including the Government and other development partners. Under this agreement, the World Bank planned to finance technical assistance payments to a firm the Government had already engaged to conduct parts of the project components activities. However, the World Bank later audited the firm to find out that it did not comply with the World Bank’s fiduciary requirements. Hence, a cofinancing plan without the right fiduciary arrangements could create risks of implementation problems. Firms hired by the counterparts or other stakeholders for the same project activities should initially comply with the World Bank’s fiduciary requirements before being committed to a certain course of action under the project. For example, counterpart funding under the project could be transferred to a designated account and disbursed following World Bank rules. 109. Sustained statistical production in the Democratic Republic of Congo: Given that the project aimed to catalyze statistical activities and support to the INS, it was successful in mobilizing funds for the institute. For example, the population and housing census, will be supported through UNFPAs technical assistance and the ongoing PDS project is supporting the Democratic Republic of Congo’s household survey, enterprise census and other statistical activities. The AfDB is also now supporting the INS through Page 24 of 42 The World Bank DRC Catalytic Project to Strengthen the INS (P125509) a separate capacity building project. The newly built INS office space along with the ICT equipment purchase are long-term investments benefiting the INS and the Democratic Republic of Congo’s NSS is now better in performing its statistical production tasks than it was before the project. Therefore, similar project designs with catalytic inputs could benefit the INS in the short and longer term. 110. Conducting Statistical Activities in Democratic Republic of Congo remains a challenge: Survey activities under the project faced different challenges and setbacks due to a lot of political/civil unrest within the city and other provinces. A large part of the country’s territory is difficult to access from any given point in the country, communication between provincial capitals is difficult and access to rural areas is complicated. The country has a complex political and governance environment, which create challenges for the INS to carry out statistical activities and finally there remains a large technical capacity need within the INS. Therefore, given the context of the country, there needs to be innovative approaches and methodologies in collecting and disseminating statistics. 111. Risk to project’s sustainability. The project helped improve the technical and non-technical environment of the INS. However, some of its results and achievements have not been taken over by the Government. For example, the INS website which used to be up and running because of the support of the project is now down as there are no funds to pay for the running cost. The institute still has institutional reform needs, human capacity constraints and lack of financial capacity to conduct regular operations including paying to host its website and maintain its newly built infrastructure. Therefore, to achieve long-term project results and outcomes, the World Bank should focus on larger scale investments including institutional reforms, and human capacity development. Page 25 of 42 The World Bank DRC Catalytic Project to Strengthen the INS (P125509) ANNEX 1. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND KEY OUTPUTS A. RESULTS INDICATORS A.1 PDO Indicators Objective/Outcome: To strengthen the capacity of the INS to generate and disseminate statistical information. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Number of new INS staffs Number 0.00 15.00 15.00 with formal degree in Statistics, informatics or 26-Jun-2017 30-Mar-2019 28-Jun-2019 demography Comments (achievements against targets): Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Completion rate of the Percentage 0.00 100.00 100.00 demolition and reconstruction works of INS 26-Jun-2017 30-Mar-2019 28-Jun-2019 facilities at Limete Comments (achievements against targets): Page 26 of 42 The World Bank DRC Catalytic Project to Strengthen the INS (P125509) Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Completion rate of activities Percentage 0.00 100.00 50.00 required prior to starting the field work for the 20-Jan-2015 30-Mar-2019 28-Jun-2019 cartography of the population census Comments (achievements against targets): Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Statistical products available Number 0.00 33.00 10.00 8.00 on the INS web site 20-Jan-2015 30-Mar-2019 26-Jun-2017 28-Jun-2019 Comments (achievements against targets): Even if this partial achievement (80%) of indicator by June 2019, the web site of the INS is no longer active due to payment default, the PRINS having close. This is an issue since the INS should find a sustainable way to ensure a functional website at all times. In the meantime, the PDS should alleviate this situation by financing the web site. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Page 27 of 42 The World Bank DRC Catalytic Project to Strengthen the INS (P125509) Completion rate of activities Percentage 0.00 80.00 80.00 required to put in place a Master business sample 20-Jan-2015 30-Mar-2019 28-Jun-2019 frame for the enterprise statistics Comments (achievements against targets): A.2 Intermediate Results Indicators Component: Increasing INS technical capacity Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Technical Training Sessions Number 0.00 991.00 180.00 248.00 Beneficiaries 20-Jan-2015 01-Jun-2017 26-Jun-2017 28-Jun-2019 Comments (achievements against targets): Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Technical training session Percentage 0.00 30.00 15.00 15.00 beneficiaries, of which women 27-Oct-2014 01-Jun-2017 26-Jun-2017 28-Jun-2019 Page 28 of 42 The World Bank DRC Catalytic Project to Strengthen the INS (P125509) Comments (achievements against targets): Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Number of ITS and ISE Number 0.00 16.00 9.00 beneficiaries trained by the project admitted into 20-Jan-2015 28-Jun-2019 28-Jun-2019 regional schools of statistics Comments (achievements against targets): Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Graduates financed by the Number 0.00 12.00 23.00 23.00 project 20-Jan-2015 30-Mar-2019 26-Jun-2017 28-Jun-2019 Pourcentage of Women Number 0.00 25.00 15.00 25.00 among graduates financed by the project 20-Jan-2016 30-Mar-2019 26-Jun-2017 28-Jun-2019 Comments (achievements against targets): Component: Strengthening the non-technical environment Page 29 of 42 The World Bank DRC Catalytic Project to Strengthen the INS (P125509) Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Unqualified annual audit Number 0.00 3.00 2.00 2.00 reports 20-Jan-2015 01-Jun-2017 26-Jun-2017 28-Jun-2019 Comments (achievements against targets): Page 30 of 42 The World Bank DRC Catalytic Project to Strengthen the INS (P125509) B. KEY OUTPUTS BY COMPONENT Objective/Outcome 1 1. Number of new INS staff with formal degree in statistics, informatics or demography Outcome Indicators 2. Completion rate of the demolition and reconstruction works of INS facilities at Limete 1. Unqualified annual audit reports (Number, Custom) 2. Technical training sessions (Number, Custom) 3. Technical training session beneficiaries, of which women (Percentage, Custom) 4. Number of ITS and ISE beneficiaries trained by the project admitted into regional schools of Intermediate Results Indicators statistics (Number, Custom) 5. Graduates financed by the project (Number, Custom) 6. Percentage of women among graduates financed by the project (Number, Custom Breakdown) 1. A total of 23 young professionals have completed their training as technical assistant of statistics. Of these, 15 are currently supporting the INS. Of the 15, 3 have already been integrated into the institute while the remaining 12 are in the process of being hired by the INS. Key Outputs by Component A total of 8 young professionals have continued to graduate-level studies with the support of (linked to the achievement of the the PDS project. Objective/Outcome 1) 2. A total of 202 INS technical staff (44 females) received training on different statistical modules. 3. A modern INS office building has been constructed. Objective/Outcome 2 1. Completion rate of activities required prior to starting the field work for the cartography of the population census (Percentage, Custom) Outcome Indicators 2. Statistical products available on the INS website (Number, Custom) 3. Completion rate of activities required to put in place a master business sample frame for the enterprise statistics (Percentage, Custom) Page 31 of 42 The World Bank DRC Catalytic Project to Strengthen the INS (P125509) Intermediate Results Indicators 1. Data archiving and dissemination policy has been developed. Key Outputs by Component 2. The preparation and execution of the pilot enterprise census, including thematic training of (linked to the achievement of the 38 INS technical staff (1 female) for the enterprise census activity, has been supported. Objective/Outcome 2) 3. The methodology for the cartography of the pilot population and housing census has been developed and validated. Page 32 of 42 The World Bank DRC Catalytic Project to Strengthen the INS (P125509) ANNEX 2. BANK LENDING AND IMPLEMENTATION SUPPORT/SUPERVISION A. TASK TEAM MEMBERS Name Role Preparation Supervision/ICR Yele Maweki Batana Task Team Leader(s) Guy Kiaku Kindoki, Cheick Traore, Clement Tukeba Lessa Kimpuni Procurement Specialist(s) Bertille Gerardine Ngameni Wepanjue Financial Management Specialist Lucienne M. M'Baipor Social Specialist Senait Kassa Yifru Team Member Franck M. Adoho Team Member Lucie Lufiauluisu Bobola Team Member Olga Kadima Team Member Elikia Merleen Vanessa Abraham Team Member Melat Assefa Asfaw Team Member Claude Lina Lobo Team Member Joelle Nkombela Mukungu Environmental Specialist Mervy Ever Viboudoulou Vilpoux Team Member B. STAFF TIME AND COST Staff Time and Cost Stage of Project Cycle No. of staff weeks US$ (including travel and consultant costs) Preparation FY11 4.130 28,563.41 FY12 7.610 53,721.20 FY13 0 - 492.77 Page 33 of 42 The World Bank DRC Catalytic Project to Strengthen the INS (P125509) Total 11.74 81,791.84 Supervision/ICR FY15 8.971 59,263.25 FY16 4.400 81,175.51 FY17 6.290 63,628.62 FY18 5.400 60,450.38 FY19 4.720 39,197.26 FY20 12.300 97,381.60 Total 42.08 401,096.62 Page 34 of 42 The World Bank DRC Catalytic Project to Strengthen the INS (P125509) ANNEX 3. PROJECT COST BY COMPONENT Amount at Actual at Amount after Project Percentage Components Approval Project Closing Restructuring (US$) of Approval (US$) (US$) Increasing INS technical 860,000 1,250,000 972,845.81 77.83 capacity Strengthening the non- 2,940,000 6,790,000 7,354,056.25 108.31 technical environment Statistical production and 7,320,000 3,760,000 2,697,708.44 71.75 dissemination Contingencies 680,000 0 0.00 Total 11,800,000 11,800,000 11,024,610.50 93.43 Page 35 of 42 The World Bank DRC Catalytic Project to Strengthen the INS (P125509) ANNEX 4. DESCRIPITON OF CHANGES ON THE INITIAL RESULTS FRAMEWORK AFTER RESTRUCTURING Indicator Revision / Change Comments PDO Level Indicators During the initial design of the indicator it assumed that a few critical phases would have been accomplished to achieve using the revised master sample frame. These assumptions included: the completion of the population (Revised) Completion rate of census cartography which was beyond the scope of the National surveys using the revised activities required prior to starting project which only provided partial funding for the master sample frame the field work for the cartography cartography activity. Additional funding was needed to of the population census complete it and therefore it was unrealistic to continue to link the performance of the project with the cartography. With the projects remaining time being limited, the activities were changed into realistic achievements that could be accomplished under the project. The indicator initially designed was beyond the projects’ scope. In order to produce national accounts annually using updated informal sector and industrial estimates, the National accounts produced (Revised) Execution rate of following activities must have be completed: conducting an annually using the updated activities required to put in place a enterprise census and creation of a master sample frame for informal sector and industrial Master business sample frame for enterprise survey; an enterprise survey must follow the estimates the enterprise statistics. enterprise census to provide the needed data to update the national account however the project didn’t plan to finance an enterprise survey; and the project did not plan to address informal sector statistics. The indicator has not changed. However, the list of No change to the indicator, but the statistical products has been updated to focus on most Statistical products available on scope is revised (see description in relevant statistical outputs including: Consumer Price Index, the INS web site next column). Poverty Indices, National Accounts, GDP and Input-output tables. (Revised and moved from intermediate to PDO level indicator) INS Facilities have been renovated Execution rate for the demolition and reconstruction works related to INS facilities at Limete. Number of ITS and ISE beneficiaries trained by the New project to be admitted into regional schools of statistics Intermediate Level Indicators Technical Training Sessions No change Beneficiaries Graduates financed by the project No change Page 36 of 42 The World Bank DRC Catalytic Project to Strengthen the INS (P125509) Graduates financed by the No change project, of which women Unqualified annual audit reports No change Annual budgeted work plan This was decided that it was not relevant according to the Dropped execution rate PDO Provisional master sample for Redundant given the reduced scope of activities surveys developed and available Dropped in electronic form Quality of census mapping Dropped N/A Availability of the final census Not relevant given the reduced scope of activities Dropped documentation Enterprise sample frame revised Dropped Redundant considering the new PDO indicators Data sets covered by the The activity remains under the project but will not be Dropped measured as an intermediate level indicator. dissemination policy Page 37 of 42 The World Bank DRC Catalytic Project to Strengthen the INS (P125509) ANNEX 5. DESCRIPTION AND STATUS OF INITIAL PDO INDICATORS 1. National surveys using the revised master sample frame. This indicator was not achieved because the use of a revised master sample frame was only possible if the cartography of the population was completed and a master sample frame was produced which then would have led to national surveys being implemented using the master sample frame. The PRINS funds planned to partially support the cartography and the activity depended on external additional financing. Arrangements in financing further caused delay, making it too late for the activity to be accomplished and measure results of its outcomes before the closing of the project. 2. National accounts produced annually using the updated informal sector and industrial estimates. This indicator was not achieved because the activity was beyond the project scope and depended on the completion of an enterprise census and creation of a master sample frame for enterprise survey, followed by an enterprise survey that would have provided the needed data to update the national account. The PRINS project did not plan to finance the enterprise survey nor address any activity related to informal sector statistics. Hence, it was difficult to make this indicator progress. 3. Number of statistical products available on the INS website. This indicator was not achieved. The project target was to publish 28 statistical products on the INS website by the third year after project effectiveness. However, the ISR for that period describes that there was no statistical product online at that time. Table 5.1. Status of PDO- and Intermediate-Level Indicators before Restructuring PDO: To strengthen the capacity of the INS to generate and disseminate statistical information. Indicator Status and Comments PDO-Level Indicators Indicator 1: National surveys using the revised master sample frame Target not achieved Indicator 2: National accounts produced annually using the updated informal sector Target not achieved and industrial estimates Indicator 3: Number of statistical products available on the INS web site Target not achieved Intermediate Results Indicators Technical training sessions beneficiaries Target not achieved Technical training session beneficiaries, of which women Target not achieved Graduates financed by the project Target fully achieved Graduates financed by the project, of which women Target fully achieved Unqualified annual audit reports Target not achieved Annual budgeted work plan execution rate Target not achieved INS staff working in an improved office Target not achieved Provisional master sample for surveys developed and available in electronic form Target not achieved Quality of census mapping Target not achieved Availability of the final census documentation Target not achieved Enterprise sample frame revised Target not achieved Data sets covered by the dissemination policy Target not achieved Page 38 of 42 The World Bank DRC Catalytic Project to Strengthen the INS (P125509) Figure 5.1 Results chain underlying the Original Project, Congo, Dem. Rep. Catalytic Project to Strengthen the INS Page 39 of 42 The World Bank DRC Catalytic Project to Strengthen the INS (P125509) ANNEX 6. ASSESMENT OF PDO- AND INTERMEDIATE-LEVEL INDICATORS ACHIEVEMENT 1. Number of new INS staff with formal degree in statistics, informatics, or demography. The output indicator is fully achieved. A total of 23 young professionals (including 5 women) have completed their training as technical assistant of statistics at Ecole Nationale Supérieure de Statistique et d'Economie Appliquée (National Statistical and Applied Economics School of the Ivory Coast, ENSEA) in Abidjan after 2 years of study. Out of the 23, 15 are currently supporting the INS in various statistical activities funded under the World Bank. Of those 15, 3 have already been integrated into the institute while the remaining 12 are in process of being hired by the INS. A total of 8 young professionals (including 1 female) have continued to graduate-level studies (under the support of the PDS). 2. In addition to supporting the abovementioned scholarship program, the project has largely contributed to the increased number of Congolese students passing the annual exams to enter these African regional statistical schools. The project supported awareness raising activities in the Kinshasa, Lumumbashi, and Goma regions and collaborated with a regional statistical center, Centre d’Appui aux Écoles de Statitique Africaines, to prepare 139 candidates to study for the entrance exams. 3. A training plan for the INS staff had been developed for the year 2016. Existing INS staff have received specific, practical, and thematic training sessions. A total of 202 technical staff (44 females) participated in the different modules that was developed by ENSEA. 4. Completion rate of the demolition and reconstruction works of INS facilities at Limete. This output indicator is fully achieved. A modern INS office building has been constructed. It is located at the INS premises in Limete Industriele, 6ieme rue, in Kinshasa. The office spaces have followed international standards recommended by the World Bank. The ground floor level includes a training room, library, archive, and printing space; the mezzanine, first, and second floor levels include open offices as well as private offices and directors’ rooms; the third floor is an open space; and the fourth floor includes offices for the INS Director General and the Deputy Director General. Each floor contains amenities such as elevator, toilets, ICT rooms, video surveillance room, and data center room. 5. Completion rate of activities required prior to starting the field work for the cartography of the population census. This output indicator is partially achieved. Four critical phases had been planned to attain the census cartography activities. These included the validation of the methodology, training and deployment of field teams, pilot cartography, and validation of the pilot cartography report. The first of the four milestones that were developed has been achieved. This includes the validation of the methodology. The rest of the processes are not finalized. 6. Statistical products available on the INS website. This output indicator is partially achieved. Data archiving and dissemination policy has been developed under this project. Eight out of the ten expected statistical outputs have also been published on the INS website. 7. Completion rate of activities required to put in place a master business sample frame for the enterprise statistics. This output indicator is fully achieved. Nine phases have been designed to conduct the enterprise census. These are the critical phases of the preparatory works, pilot census, definition of maps for enumeration areas, communication and awareness campaigns, acquisition of equipment and office supplies, identification of enumeration areas, enumeration, data processing and drafting of report, Page 40 of 42 The World Bank DRC Catalytic Project to Strengthen the INS (P125509) and creation of master sample frame for business survey. This indicator expects 80 percent of the activities to be completed under this project. Five out of the nine phases planned under this outcome are fully achieved. These are the completion of preparatory works for the pilot census, conducting the pilot census, definition of maps for enumeration areas, communication and awareness campaigns, and the purchase of equipment and office supplies for this activity. The project has also supported the training of enumerators that will be set out in Kinshasa and four other provinces. Additionally, 38 technical staff (1 female) received thematic training. The rest of the planned activities are currently being conducted under the PDS. 8. All the above activities contribute significantly to the INS’s capacity to generate statistical information. Table 6.1. Summary of Status of PDO- and Intermediate-Level Indicators PDO: To strengthen the capacity of the INS to generate and disseminate statistical information. Indicator Status and Comments PDO-Level Indicators Indicator 1: Number of new INS staff with formal degree in statistics, informatics Target fully achieved or demography Indicator 2: Completion rate of the demolition and reconstruction works of INS Target fully achieved facilities at Limete Indicator 3. Completion rate of activities required prior to starting the field work Target partially achieved for the cartography of the population census Indicator 4. Statistical products available on the INS website Target partially achieved Indicator 5. Completion rate of activities required to put in place a master Target fully achieved business sample frame for the enterprise statistics Intermediate Results Indicators Unqualified annual audit reports Target not achieved Technical training sessions beneficiaries Target fully achieved Technical training session beneficiaries of which women Target fully achieved Number of ITS and ISE beneficiaries trained by the project admitted into regional Target partially achieved schools of statistics Graduates financed by the project Target fully achieved Percentage of women among graduates financed by the project Target fully achieved Page 41 of 42 The World Bank DRC Catalytic Project to Strengthen the INS (P125509) Map – Congo, Democratic Republic Page 42 of 42