Ghana Statistics Development Project – P118858 (Cr.5010-GH and TF10425) Implementation Review and Support Mission- June, 19-30, 2017 Aide Memoire A. Introduction 1. Pursuant to the mission announcement letter dated May 31, 2017, a joint Government of Ghana and World Bank Implementation Review and Support Mission (ISM) for the Ghana Statistics Development Project (GSDP) was conducted during the period of June 19-30, 2016. 2. The Bank mission team comprised of Smile Kwawukume (Snr. Public Sector Specialist and Task Team Leader), Ayago E, Wambile (Economist and Co-TTL), Abdoullahi Beidou (Senior Economist/Statistician), Robert De-Graft Hanson (Snr. Financial Management Specialist), Charles John Aryee Ashong (Snr. Procurement Specialist), Gabriel Dedu (Governance Specialist), Lydia Sam (Procurement Assistant), and Charlotte Hayfron (Program Assistant). 3. The Mission was conducted in collaboration with the Ghana Statistical Service, Ministry of Finance (MoF), Ministry of Food and Agriculture (MoFA), Ministry of Education (MoE), Ministry of Health (MoH), Ministry of Trade and Industries (MOTI), Ministry of Lands and Natural Resources (MLNR), Ministry of Employment and Labour Relations (MELR) and the Ministry of Gender, Children and Social Protection. The Ministry of Communication did not participate in the mission. Officials met during the Mission are listed in Annex 1. 4. The World Bank team is grateful for the support received from the Government of Ghana team and would like to convey its sincere appreciation to Mr. Baah Wadieh, Acting Government Statistician, Mr. Anthony Amuzu, Deputy Government Statistician (Operations), the Directors of GSS, all the Coordinators and staff of the implementing ministries/agencies for their co-operation and contributions during the mission. 5. This Aide Memoire, documents the key findings of the Mission and outlines the proposed next steps which were discussed in a wrap-up meeting with the GSS and the implementing agencies on Tuesday June 27, 2017 B. Mission Objectives 6. The Mission’s objectives were to: (i) review progress on implementation by component, (ii) review progress on the implementation of the agreed actions during the November 2016 mission, (iii) review project compliance with fiduciary and safeguards requirements and update the financial and procurement status, and (v) collect data on the various project indicators to update the results framework. C. Key Achievements and Issues 7. The key issues are summarized as follows: (a) The field work for the Seventh Round of the Ghana Living Standards Survey (GLSS7) is progressing very well and the data collection for the sixth cycle has been completed. A response rate of over 94 percent was achieved at the end of the sixth cycle. The field work for the GLSS7 is expected to be completed on time in October, 2017. (b) The report on the Labour Force Survey (LFS) had been completed and disseminated to the public. A copy of the report is on the website of the GSS. (c) The Integrated Business Establishment Survey Phase 2 (IBES II) experienced some delays in data collection due to the inability of some key institutions to provide timely data. GSS eventually resorted to working through some sector ministries to ensure that data is provided by all the relevant institutions. The final report is expected to be completed and released at the end of September, 2017. (d) The Statistics Bill that was presented to the Parliament of Ghana in 2016 was not passed by the House due to the 2016 presidential and parliamentary elections. With the dissolution of the old Parliament and the swearing-in of a new one, the Bill was deemed to have elapsed. Subsequently, the GSS has been collaborating with the Attorney General’s Department to re-submit the Bill to Cabinet. Stakeholders at a National Data Roadmap Forum held in April, 2017, requested that the GSS capitalize on the opportunity to undertake at least one stakeholder consultation and incorporate any emerging issues. GSS will organize the consultation with the participation of the Attorney General’s Department before it goes to Cabinet. (e) The GSS needs to publicize their products. To this end the consultancy for the development of the Data Dissemination Policy would need to be prioritized D. Summary of Project Implementation and Rating Component 1 – Institutional Reform and Organizational change (US$3.20 million) 8. The mission was informed that the Statistics Bill could not be enacted into law in 2016 as planned. Even though the Bill went through the first reading in Parliament, and the relevant parliamentary committee held a workshop with management of the GSS to review the Bill, the Bill was not eventually approved. With a new parliamentary session that begun on January 7, 2017, the Bill has to be re-submitted to Cabinet. At a National Data Roadmap Forum held in April, 2017, the GSS was asked to undertake at least one stakeholder consultation before the Bill is re-submitted to Cabinet. The mission recommended that the consultations be organized early in order to get the revised Bill resubmitted to Cabinet. 9. The project continued to sponsor staff of GSS to pursue courses leading to the award of a master’s level degree. As at May 30, a total of 58 staff have been sponsored to pursue various courses leading to the award of a post-graduate degree (Masters Level Degree). Most of the courses being pursued are economics, statistics/mathematics, demography, geography, sociology, GIS, information technology/computer science, project management and supply chain management. 10. Component 1b: Staff Buyout. This sub-component has been completed as at the time of the mid-term review. Component 2: Enhancing capacity (US$16.25 million) 11. This component focuses on enhancing statistical capacity and the underlying statistical framework to ensure production of quality statistics. It supports three GSDP sub- components: a) Enhancing capacity of GSS and MDA statistical units; b) Improving the statistical framework; and c) Investing in physical infrastructure and equipment. The mission team rates its implementation satisfactory as summarized below. 12. Sub-Component 2a. Enhancing capacity of GSS and MDA statistical units: Capacity building activities for GSS and the MDA statistical units continued to improve over the last six months. Training programmes, intended to improve professional skills of staff continued to focus on data collection, analysis and reporting. The Mission noted the continuous improvement in the capacity of MDA statistical units as a result of the various initiatives undertaken through the project. With the exception of the Ministry of Communications, all the implementing ministries and agencies were able to undertake data collection initiatives for the respective sectors. The Mission recommended that the MDAs need to step up in the timely processing and publication of reports on data that they collect. The Mission learned that a series of training programs were organized. These include training of the Finance Department staff on the Ghana Integrated Financial Management Information System (GIFMIS). The Finance staff are now using the GIFMIS Platform to generate financial management reports. 13. In addition, two sessions (five days each) of capacity building in Succession Planning and Career Development was organized by the Human Resource Directorate of the GSS, for all heads of Directorates and Sections to create an effective process for identifying, developing and retaining capable staff for leadership roles. The Mission recommends that, on the basis of these training programmes, GSS should finalize a succession planning and career development plan by September 30, 2017. The Ministry of Lands and Natural Resources (MoLNR) also conducted capacity building in GIS/Web mapping for selected staff of the Ministry in March, 2017. The training focused on how to analyze, store and visualize geographic information on maps and also data capturing and tabulation using Geographical Information System (GIS) software. 14. Furthermore, The Ministry of Gender, Children and Social Protection (MoGCSP), organized capacity building training in Gender Statistics for Regional Directors of the Department of Gender and selected staff of the Research, Statistics and Information Management Directorates of Ministries, Departments and Agencies implementing the Ghana Statistics Development Project (GSDP). The main aim was to build capacity of participants in the generation of gender statistics for policy decision making. Two staff from the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MoTI) are participating in the Sampling Programme for Survey Statisticians’ (SPSS) course being organized by the Summer Institute, University of Michigan, USA. 15. Sub-Component 2b: Improving the statistical framework: A significant progress was made in the post census cartographic mapping exercise. The Ghana Enumeration Area Information System (GEA-Info) established during the 2010 Population and Housing Census (PHC) has been updated to reflect the changes that have taken place since 2010 census. The exercise also includes translating geographic feature information on paper maps (analogue maps) into digital coordinates. The Mission was informed that as at June 2017, the Geographic Information System (GIS) Unit of GSS has almost achieved the objective of converting all the 37,651 Enumeration Area (EA) maps from analogue to digital form to conform to the current situation on the ground. It is now left with 872 EA maps to be digitized. The Mission agreed with the team to submit a budget for completing the remaining EAs for consideration to enable the GSS complete the digitization by October 31, 2017. 16. Sub-Component 2c: Investing in physical infrastructure and equipment: This sub-component focuses on investing in physical infrastructure of GSS and the MDAs statistical units including the provision of information and communication technology software and equipment, improving the ICT connectivity, data transfer, statistical information sharing and improving the management of information systems. All the planned activities to support GSS and the MDAs with furniture and equipment were undertaken. Component 3 – Data Production and Dissemination (US$ 16.6 million) 17. The objective of this component is to enhance the quality and the range of existing statistics collected by the GSS and the MDAs, and improve how these statistics are communicated and disseminated to users. The mission discussed planned activities under the 2017 work plan. The mission learnt that the GLSS 7 field work and monitoring is currently in the 7th cycle. The data collection is expected to be completed on schedule in October, 2017. By the end of the 6th Cycle, about 600 clusters had been covered (expected households of 9,000) and a response rate of over 94 percent was achieved. So far, no major challenges have been encountered except issues of syncing of data by interviewers because of low or lack of internet connection in some areas, recharging of tablets, and numerous call backs especially in the cities. Adequate measures have been put in place to resolve these challenges. It was agreed that the data cleaning and consumption aggregation will continue with the aim of timely release of final data by December 2017 to enable GSS start preparation of the main report. The Bank team will provide technical support in this effort. Another on-going activity is the CPI and GDP rebasing exercise. Currently, collection of market price data from 44 markets nationwide for the rebasing of CPI which started in January 2017 is on-going, and expected to end in December, 2017, which is concurrently done alongside the Old CPI series. It is expected that the items in the basket for the CPI will increase to about 450. The new CPI is scheduled to be released from the first half of 2018 and the old series would be terminated. The Mission expressed concerns about the delays in the GDP and CPI rebasing efforts. The team agreed with the GSS management that this activity is prioritized and completed on time. 18. The Mission was informed that the dissemination of the Labour Force Survey main report was completed in March, 2017. Also, the data collection for IBES II has been completed, but this activity has dragged on for so long since 2015. GSS team explained that the delays experienced in data collection were due to the inability of some key institutions to provide timely data. GSS eventually resorted to working through some sector ministries to ensure that data were provided by all the relevant institutions. Currently, the data cleaning is almost completed and tables are being generated for the review and consistency checks for timely preparation and release of the final report scheduled for September, 2017. The Mission team expressed the need for extra effort by GSS to complete this task as planned. The Ministry of Employment and Labour Relations (MELR) has also designed a Ghana Labour Market Information System (GLMIS) platform. A demonstration was made to the Mission team although there are no data yet. The challenge is the input data for different interfaces which the success of the platform is dependent upon. Preparations are being made to train officers of relevant Departments and Agencies under the Ministry to be able to collect and key data into the system. The MELR has also been given approval to prepare their Statistical report for 2016. The Mission stressed the need to complete that activity. Under the Birth and Death Registry, there is still a huge backlog on digitization of the birth and death registration records in the country. Cumulatively only about one million records out of over sixteen million have been digitized between 2015- 2016. BDR is expecting to digitize about 200,000 additional records by August 2017. 19. The Mission learned that the Ministry of Education’s (MoE) has completed data collection, data capture and collation of data from the entire 216 districts for the 2016/2017 Annual Schools Census (ASC). As at the time of the mission, the MoE team was prepapring the ASC reports at the Ghana Education Service Courses and Training Centre (GESCTC), Saltpond. Also, as a follow-up to Maternal Deaths Survey of 2014/2015 carried out in 50 districts, that reported high numbers of maternal deaths in the country and with the objective of having in place a holistic approach or strategy that will help reduce incidence of maternal deaths in Ghana, the Ministry of Health conducted a new survey with the objective of ascertaining whether there are linkages of the previous survey findings with conditions in health institutions in the endemic areas. The field work has been completed and the report is expected to be ready by mid-July, 2017. 20. The Ministry of Lands and Natural Resources (MLNR) conducted a monitoring exercise from 24 April - 9 May, 2017, both at the regional and district offices. This exercise was meant to check the database systems on forest products and customary lands to ascertain whether data were consistently being updated. The monitoring revealed that more than 70% of the institutions visited by the monitors were updating their data on Lands and Forests. The Ministry is currently (from June, 2017) embarking on data collection exercise to collect data on state acquired lands and large scale acquisitions by investors in fifty towns across the ten regions of Ghana. The exercise is intended to build an efficient database on state acquired lands. 21. The Mission was informed that the GSS has received support from AFRITAC WEST 2 to develop the SUT. Subsequently, the consultancy for development of SUT will no longer be required. To this end a capacity building workshop would be organized to start the development of the SUT. This activity would be led by the AFRITAC WEST 2 National Accounts Adviser and participants would be drawn from GSS, Ministries of Finance, Fisheries, Education and Food and Agriculture, Bank of Ghana, Ghana Revenue Authority, GNPC, Forestry Commission, Ghana Water Company, VRA, ECG, COCOBOD, NIC, NCA, and the Minerals Commission. 22. Under this component it was agreed that for all surveys, the focus should be on completing the main reports first and then prepare the other reports later Component 4- Program Management, Monitoring and Evaluation (IDA – US$1.30million). 23. Program Management. The objective of this component is to provide a robust project and program management function that caters for the needs of integrated coordination and monitoring of the implementation of the program, serve as the enabling component for delivery of capacity, and assure the appropriate sequencing of interventions across the various components. This component continues to be rated as Satisfactory. 24. The Mission noted that bi-annual progress report for the project was prepared and shared with the Bank timely before the commencement of the mission. The Mission discussed progress that was made on agreed actions during the last mission. The Mission informed the project team of the level II restructuring of the SRF-CF Grant of the project which resulted in the extension of the closing date of the Grant to June 30, 2018. As a result, the closing date for all project activities is now June 30, 2018. Consequently, The Mission informed the team to revise the annual work plan and budget (AWP&B) to include the final User Satisfaction Survey (USS) and other activities. The Mission also reiterated the need for all reports for all surveys to be completed and disseminated before the June 30, 2018. 25. Procurement. The mission reviewed procurement activities undertaken by the project to date. Specifically, activities undertaken after the MTR review in May 2016 were reviewed to ascertain the progress and status of procurement. The procurement status report that was received provided details of procurement, contracts signed, contracts ongoing and contracts yet to be initiated; covering Goods, Consultancy and Non Consultancy categories. 26. Progress of procurement: Overall, 8No. (representing 19%) out of a total of 43No. planned procurements have been successfully executed. 10No. (23%) are ongoing; 10No. (23%) are at the pre-contract stage and 15No. (35%) of the planned procurement are yet to be initiated. The estimated total amount for contracts completed is US$219,403 (10%); estimated total amount for contracts signed and ongoing is US$585,100 (26%). Estimated amount of contract at pre-contract stage is US$694,650 (31.6%). Yet to be initiated contracts amounts to US$US$699,200 (32%). The overall estimate of the entire procurement is US$2,197,353. This means that a total of US$803,503.00 representing (36.6%) of the estimated total budget for procurement has been committed. The project assured the Bank team that they will work assiduously to complete all procurements before the close of the project in June, 2018. The Bank team suggested to the project team to ensure to capture all procurements to date when reporting on procurement during missions. A report of the entire procurement from the beginning of the project gives a true picture of what has transpired since the beginning of the project. 27. Performance Rating: Following the review and discussions above, the overall Procurement arrangement and performance so far continues to be rated Moderately Satisfactory while procurement risk remains SUBSTANTIAL. See below applicable Prior review and method threshold (Annex 3). Subsequent preparation of new procurement planning should follow the below information in the table. 28. Financial Management. The Project has complied fully with the financial covenants by; submitting acceptable interim financial reports and submission of acceptable annual audits. For the year 2017, the project has submitted its first quarter Interim Financial Report (IFR) on May 03, 2017 and the report was reviewed and considered acceptable to the Bank. In relation to the submission of audit reports, the project has been compliant. Recent audits for the periods ending December 2015 and December 2016 were submitted. 29. Disbursement. The GSD Project was signed on February, 2014 with an allocation of XDR18.8million (USD Equiv. US$30.0million) and declared effective on April, 2014. As at the date of the mission, the total funds disbursed under the project amounts to XDR16,046,758(approx.US$23,004,584) representing a disbursement ratio of 85.36% of the allocated funding. Overall funds available is estimated at US$7,000,000. (may vary due to exchange movement between XDR/USD). For the SRF-CF TF, the funds have been fully disbursed and what remains is for the Project to document an outstanding amount of US$332,382. 30. Overall FM Performance and Risk Rating: Overall the FM arrangement of the project is maintained as Satisfactory (S) and the FM Risk remains Moderate, as there has been no adverse change in the arrangements as documented in the PAD. However, even though management has given assurances, the Bank wants to reemphasize the point that there is potential fiduciary risk associated with possible delays in executing some planed contracts/activities and if these are not well monitored or managed can affect overall fiduciary risk and non-payment. This risk will be monitored and evaluated periodically. 31. The key FM Risks for management attention are summarized as follows:  Risk of further exchange losses which can limit the fund available for implementation and meeting contractual obligations; (exchange losses to date is estimated at US$4,000,000)  Effective contract management and monitoring to ensure that completion timelines are complied with to guarantee payment by IDA,  Avoiding any cost overruns and variations in work programs particularly by the MDAs involved and any ongoing contracts which will pose a challenge on funding;  Risk of third parties not being able to comply with contractual dates in delivery – leading to possible extensions and slippages. Specific contracts will be addressed in the Procurement and if necessary the scope of work and timelines for delivery will have to be amended.  Ensuring that all on going contracts are delivered on or by closing date. 32. In order to help minimize or mitigate the above risks, the Mission agreed with the Project team that going forward all payments must be centralized within the GSS and that no funds will be transferred either by cash or electronically to the MDAs to support activities. All MDA activities will be initiated and processed in line with their respective internal control processes. However, all payment documents will be forwarded to the Project Director (GSS) for review and subsequently to the GSS Accounts Department for final payment. E. Monitoring and Evaluation. 33. The M&E team provided update on the achievement of all PDO and intermediate level indicators against the annualized and end targets. The latest status on achievements against the project’s indicators is provided for in Annex 4. The Mission discussed the Results Framework of the project and agreed with the updates provided. F. Next Mission 34. The next mission is tentatively planned to occur during the second half of November, 2017. G. List of Agreed Actions and Recommendations No. ACTIVITY BY WHO WHEN 1 Organize one consultation on the Statistics Bill Ag. GS August 30, 2017 2 Continue GLSS7 data cleaning and consumption GSS On-going aggregation in order to release data early 3 Prepare and publish 2016 MELR Statistical Report MELR October 31, 2017 4 Prioritize activities leading to the rebasing of CPI and GDP Ag, GS On-going 5 Provide TA support to GLSS7 team for timely release of WB Dec. 31, 2017 data and main report 6 Focus on completing main reports for all surveys Ag. GS On-going 7 Submit an overall Fund/Cash Position for the Project. Finance August 31, 2017 Department of GSS 8 Undertake an in-depth audit of the MDA expenditure Internal Audit of September 30, and issue such report to the Bank GSS 2017 9 Revise the annual work plan and budget (AWP&B) to GSS include the final User Satisfaction Survey (USS) and other activities H. Disclosure 35. The Bank and Government counterparts confirm their understanding and agreement to publicly disclose this aide-mémoire. The disclosure of this Aide Memoire was discussed and agreed to with government counterparts at a wrap up session chaired by the Acting Government Statistician, Mr. Baah Wadieh on 27 June, 2017 in Accra, Ghana. Annex 1- List of Participants 1. BAAH WADIEH GSS baah.wadieh@statsghana.gov.gh 2. SYLVESTER GYAMFI GSS sylvester.gyamfi@statsghana.gov.gh 3. KWADWO ASANTE GSS kwadwo.asante@statsghana.gov.gh 4. ABENA OSEI-AKOTO GSS abena.osei-akoto@statsghana.gov.gh 5. FRANCIS DZAH GSS f.dzah-2002@gmail.com 6. FRANCIS NYARKOH-LARBI GSS fnyarkoh-larbi@statsghana.gov.gh 7. EMMAUEL A. COBBINAH GSS emmanuel.cobbinah@statsghana.gov.gh 8. ROBERT KWAMI GSS robert.kwami@statsghana.gov.gh 9. DAVID Y. KOMBAT GSS david.kombat@statsghana.gov.gh 10. ANTHONY AMUZU GSS a.amuzu@statsghana.gov.gh 11. ARABA FORSON GSS arafor@gmail.com 12. BABA AHMED GSS ahmed.adama@statsghana.gov. gh 13. ALBERTA ESHUN GSS albeta.eshun@statsghana.gov.gh 14. ISAAC ODOOM GSS isaac.odoom@statsghana.gov.gh 15. VICTORIA SOTTIE GSS victoria.sottie@statsghana.gov.gh 16. STEVE AMOAH GSS stephen.amoah@statsghana.gov.gh 17. ANTHONY AMUZU PHARIN GSS anthong@pharin.me 18. SEBASTIAN ATSRIM GSS sabastian.atsrim@statsghana.gov.gh 19. BETTY-LOVE H. COBBINAH GSS belovveZ@yahoo.com 20. ROSALIND QUARTEY GSS rosalind.quartey@statsghana.gov.gh 21. ROBERTSON ADJEI GSS yawadjei50@gmail.com 22. PETER T. PEPRAH GSS kwakupeprah@gmail.com 23. ASUO AFRAM GSS asuo.afram@statsghana.gov.gh 24. VICTORIA ANIM-ANSAH GSS victoria.anim-ansah@statsghana.gov.gh 25. SAMUEL MORTEY GSS samuel.mortey@statsghana.gov.gh 26. FRANCIS BRIGHT MENSAH GSS francis.mensah@statsghana.gov.gh 27. GLORIA A. AKOTO-BAMFO GSS gloria.akoto-bamfo@statsghana.gov.gh 28. HELLEN AYITEVIE GSS hellen.ayitevie@statsghana.gov.gh 29. KRAKAH ANTHONY GSS anthony.krakah@statsghana.gov.gh 30. MABRUK FUSEINI GSS fuseini.mabruk@gmail.com 31. LABARAN M. AWAL GSS mylabmaa@yahoo.com 32. BRIGHT O. YEBOAH GSS owusu.by@gmail.com 33. ELEANOR CAREY GSS elearnor.carey@statsghana.gov.gh 34. OMAR SEIDU GSS omar.seidu@statsghana.gov.gh 35. DONKUBARI PEARL GSS pearldonkubari04@gmail.com 36. MENSAH MARK GSS Mmarkofchrist.mm@gmail.com 37. SAMUEL MENSAH GSS samqaf@gmail.com 38. ANATSUI GRACE GSS graceanatsui2016@gmail.com 39. HENRY KWAKU KYEI BAFFOR GSS kkyeibaff@gmail.com 40. GYAMFI A. VIDA GSS vidagyamfi1980@yahoo.com 41. FRANCIS SIRIPI GSS kwekusiripi@yahoo.com 42. MARY ADUA GSS mary.adua@statsghana.gov.gh 43. KWESI BADU ESHUN GSS kwesieshun@statsghana.gov.gh 44. ALBERT FRIMPONG-AMPOFO GSS albert.frampong@statsghana.gov.gh 45. OWUSU KAGYA GSS kagya.owusu@statsghana.gov.gh 46. NORBERT KRAKAH GSS nkrakah@statsghana.gov.gh 47. APPIAH-KUSI BOATENG GSS kusi.appiah@statsghana.gov.gh 48. EDWARD DOGBEY MoE e.dogbey@gmx.com 49. DANIEL SAKYI ASIEDU MELR danasi2003@yahoo.com 50. GEORGE AMOAH MELR goaamoah@yahoo.com 51. MARY-ANNE ADDO MELR mra_addo@yahoo.com 52. VIVIAN SOLODZI MELR vivan.solodzi@melr.gov.gh 53. ISSAH MUSHIRU EIB ninsongh@yahoo.co.uk 54. ANTHONY AWOTWE EIB a_awotwe@yahoo.com 55. MERCIA AIDOO MLNR m.aidoo2007@gmail.com 56. JUDITH GARR MLNR garrjudith@gmail.com 57. ALEX MOFFATT MoH alexmofat@yahoo.com 58. MABEL CUDJOE MoH mabelcudjoe@hotmail.com 59. DR. REGINALD ODAI MoH reggie_odai@yahoo.com 60. KINGSLEY ASARE ADDO BDR kingsaddo@yahoo.com 61. ELIZABETH ANANE MoTI elizabethanne@yahoo.com 62. LETICIA TURKSON MoTI leticia_turkson@yahoo.com 63. EFUA ANYANFUL MoGCSP efuayanful@gmail.com 64. FREDERICK OSEI MoGCSP f.osei2006@gmail.com 65. MONICA ONYEN MoGCSP a.monicaoyan@gmail.com 66. SIDNEY BAMPOE ADDO MoFA/SRID okoganeggh@yahoo.com 67. KOFI DARKO MoFA/SRID kofidarko200@gmail.com Annex 2- Summary of implementation of agreed actions during the November 2016 mission No. ACTIVITY BY WHO WHEN ACTION TAKEN 1 Submit the ToR for the GSS January 13, Not done. Put on hold due to inability of engagement of the legal 2017 Parliament to approve the Bill and the consultant for the subsequent request to open up fresh preparation of the LI and consultations on the Bill. administrative instructions 2 Complete the development GSS April 30, Procurement process on-going of the dissemination and 2017 communication strategy 3 Revise the annual work GSS December Done plan and budget 15, 2016 4 Revise work plan for the GSS December Work plan revised but not submitted to the Agricultural Census and 23, 2016 Bank. The New Government side of the submit to the Bank for Transitional Team requested to discuss the review Census of Agriculture with GSS on the extent of coverage before implementation. Consultation held and go ahead given. Subsequently the work plan has been reviewed and discussed during the Mission 5 Install GIFMIS at the GSS December GIFMIS Platform installed at GSS and GSDP accounting department 23, 2016 now rolled onto the Platform. Requests for of GSS funds are being processed through the GIFMIS Annex 3- Procurement Project: P118858; TF 097577 Description: Procurement Contribution to Aide Memoire (ISM) Reviewer: Lydia Sam & Charles John Aryee Ashong Employer: Ghana Statistical Development Project (GSDP) Dated: June 22, 2017 General: The procurement team joined the mission on June 19, 2017, and had discussions with the Borrower project team on (i) progress of implementation and (ii) status of agreed actions since the last mission. Procurement objectives of the mission on the following (a) review status of implementation of procurement activities, (b) review of outstanding procurement (c) discuss procurement challenges and propose solutions to address the challenges (d) examine procurement documentation to ensure conformity with agreed Bank data management procedures and (e) implementation of STEP, was discussed. All of the above is to ensure that the project stays on track for all activities to be completed before the closing date of June 30, 2018. Procurement Procedures: The mission noted that the project continues to follow the procurement processes and procedures referred to in the Legal Agreement and the PAD. The PIM is followed and used in the implementation of the project. GSS continues to undertake all procurements on behalf of the agencies with inputs from the agencies. The challenge however is the delay of some agencies relaying information to the GSS to implement activities. The mission proposed to GSS to follow up with the agencies to ascertain if the activities are indeed needed and if not remove from the procurement plan and update. Procurement Systems and Arrangements: Procurement arrangements in place during project inception is still in place and working well as project team is aware of implications if system put in place are not followed. Staffing: The procurement team, five in the unit have not changed. This has allowed procurement to move smoothly and producing results. It is worth noting that the team always attend Bank procurement trainings to be abreast with current trends in procurement. Procurement: The mission reviewed procurements undertaken by the project in the categories, of Goods, Consultancy and Non consultancy services.  Goods: A review of the procurement plan indicates that: 26 No. procurements were planned for 2017. 5No. representing (19.23%) were completely executed. 2No. contracts representing (7.69%) have been awarded but yet to be completed. 9No. contracts representing (34.62%) are at pre contract stage, while 10No. contracts representing (38.46%) of the procurement items are yet to be initiated.  Consultancy: 15No consultancy services were planned out of which 3No. (representing 20%) have successfully been completed. 6No. services (representing 40%) are signed and on-going with 1No. (6.67%) service at pre contract stage. 5No. services (representing 33.33%) are yet to be initiated.  Non-Consulting Services: All 2No. planned activities were signed and ongoing. Progress of Procurement: Comparing 2016 to 2017, in the goods category, there has been slight improvement in 2017. While in 2016, 3No.contracts were completed, in 2017, 5No.were completed. Also in 2016 there were no contracts at pre-contract stage but in 2017, 9No.contracts are at pre-contract stage. Furthermore, in 2016, 22 No. contracts were yet to be initiated compared with 10 yet to be initiated in 2017. Ongoing contracts in 2016 were 6No.while in 2017, ongoing contracts were 2. In the category of Consultancy, no consultancy contract was completed in 2016 but in 2017, 3No were completed. 6No. contracts were ongoing in 2016 and 6No. in 2017. 5No.contracts were at pre-contract stage in 2016, while 1No. is at pre-contract stage in 2017. 14No. contracts were yet to be initiated in 2016 as against 5No. in 2017. An analyses of the above shows that though some consultancies have been completed in 2017, this is not significant. The 5No. yet to be initiated must be quickly initiated in order to complete before the closing of the project in June 2018. In the category of non-consulting services, none was completed in 2016 nor in 2017. No contract was ongoing in 2016 but 2 contracts were ongoing in 2017. No contract at pre-contract stage for both 2016 and 2017. 4No. contracts were yet to be initiated in 2016 but none in 2017. The mission noted the significant progress and the achievement of 100% completion of non- consultancy contracts. Overall Procurement Performance: Overall, 8No. (representing 19%) out of a total of 43No. planned procurements have been successfully executed. 10No. (23%) are ongoing; 10No. (23%) are at the pre-contract stage and 15No. (35%) of the planned procurement are yet to be initiated. The estimated total amount for contracts completed is US$219,403 (10%); estimated total amount for contracts signed and ongoing is US$585,100 (26%). Estimated amount of contract at pre-contract stage is US$694,650 (31.6%). Yet to be initiated contracts amounts to US$US$699,200 (32%). The overall estimate of the entire procurement is US$2,197,353. This means that a total of US$803,503.00 representing (36.6%) of the estimated total budget for procurement has been committed. The project assured the Bank team that they will work assiduously to complete all procurements before the close of the project in June, 2018. The Bank team suggested to the project team to ensure to capture all procurements to date when reporting on procurement during missions. A report of the entire procurement from the beginning of the project gives a true picture of what has transpired since the beginning of the project. Increase Prior/Method Threshold: The Bank has reviewed the prior/method threshold which was applied in preparing the procurement plan for 2017. (see below). Due to the increase in the thresholds, most of the procurement would be undertaken by the procurement team of GSS. There is therefore the need to use GSS internal clearance procedures to clear all post review procurement undertaken by the project. Thresholds Effective 1 January 2017 Prior Review Threshold in (US$ '000) Procurement Method s Thresholds (in US$'000) Shortlist of National Consultants Works Goods, IT and non-consulting services Consultants Single Engineering Goods, IT Source & Request for Request for Open Open Open Open & Systems+ Direct Quotation/ Quotation/ Consulting RISK RATING Works Firms Individuals Internationa National or Internationa National or constructio Non Con. Contract National National services l or ICB NCB l or ICB NCB n Serv Shopping Shopping supervision SUBSTANTIAL ≥$10,000 ≥$2,000 ≥$1,000 ≥$300 ≥$100 ≥15000 <15000 ≤200 ≥3000 <3000 ≤100 <300 ≤500 Procurement Planning: The Procurement team attended the Results Based Procurement Planning Workshop held on January 24 & 25, 2017. During the workshop the team was supported by the Bank’s Procurement team to review the 2017 draft procurement plan which has since been cleared by the Task Team and No-objection issued. However, new updates have been effected on the plan such as the request by the Ministry of Health to develop an ICT policy instead of a consultant to develop data dissemination policy which was dropped since an overaching one is being developed for the NSS. The Bank team requested the project to make all such changes and re-submit the plan for Bank’s no objection. It reiterated the need to send the plan to the Bank anytime there is an update. Timelines must also be updated at all times. Systematic Tracking of Exchanges in Procurement (STEP): The mission was informed of the migration of GSDP project into STEP. Handholding training sessions were held with the procurement team to familiarize themselves with the system. The Bank procurement team also assisted the project procurement team to initiate a few entries in STEP. The mission explained that henceforth PROCYS would not be used for prior review procurement clearance by the Bank but rather, the procurement plan would be prepared in STEP for the TTLs clearance before procurement activities could be undertaken. The procurement team was therefore requested to input all the activities on the plan into STEP for TTL’s clearance and use the GSS internal procurement clearance procedures to clear all post review procurement. Post Procurement Review: The mission was informed that the consultant hired by the Bank to conduct the review has completed his work and presented a report to the Bank which would be shared with the project. The Bank reiterated to the project to ensure that all recommendations made in the report are implemented. Records Keeping: The project continues to keep good records and ensure that files are kept under lock and key. The mission advised the project to continue for easy retrieval of procurement documentation especially during Post Procurement Reviews (PPRs). PPR: A Moderate risk rating was given to the procurement process and compliance and Substantial rating for the review of contract administration and performance in the PPR report of 2017. There is an indication that the project can do more to achieve high status. The project is advised to implement recommendations in the PPR report. Performance Rating: Following the review and discussions above, the overall Procurement arrangement and performance so far continues to be rated Moderately Satisfactory while procurement risk remains SUBSTANTIAL. See below applicable Prior review and method threshold. Subsequent preparation of new procurement planning should follow the below information in the table. Thresholds Effective 1 January 2017 Prior Review Threshold in (US$ '000) Procurement Method s Thresholds (in US$'000) Shortlist of National Consultants Works Goods, IT and non-consulting services Consultants Single Engineering Goods, IT Source & Request for Request for Open Open Open Open & Systems+ Direct Quotation/ Quotation/ Consulting RISK RATING Works Firms Individuals Internationa National or Internationa National or constructio Non Con. Contract National National services l or ICB NCB l or ICB NCB n Serv Shopping Shopping supervision SUBSTANTIAL ≥$10,000 ≥$2,000 ≥$1,000 ≥$300 ≥$100 ≥15000 <15000 ≤200 ≥3000 <3000 ≤100 <300 ≤500 Annex 4. Financial Management The last detailed FM review was done in September 2016 and overall the FM performance was rated as being Satisfactory, whilst the risk rating is rated as moderate. The financial management review concluded that there are sound financial management systems at the GSS and that these systems are adequate and meet the minimum requirements as per Bank Policy OP 10.00. In terms of design, the financial management arrangements for the project are fully mainstreamed as part of the Government’s approval and authorization and payment processes within the GSS. Consistently throughout implementation, the project has had satisfactory financial management performance rating and this is attributed to the competences and skill of the Project Accountant and the oversight functions of Senior management (Project) Team within the GSS and the direct functional oversight as represented by the Director of Finance who has ultimate responsibility for fiduciary. Compliance to Financial Covenants In terms of compliance with the financial covenants of; submitting acceptable interim financial reports and submission of acceptable annual audits, the project has generally complied fully. Regarding the submission of periodic financial reports, GSS has complied in their regular submissions of acceptable IFRs and also, in meeting the deadline dates. For the year 2017, the project has submitted its first quarter Interim Financial Report (IFR) on May 03, 2017 and the report was reviewed and considered acceptable to the Bank. In relation to the submission of audit reports, the project has been compliant; Recent audits for the periods ending December 2015 and December 2016 have been submitted. The audit report for 2015 was received on July 05 2016, which was marginally beyond the six months’ period after the end of the fiscal year and in non- compliance with the provision of the Financing Agreement, Article IV Section 4.01 (b) (ii) which requires the audit to be submitted not later than June 30, 2016. In like manner the audit for December 2016 which was due not later than June 30, 2017 was submitted to the Bank on June 08, 2017. Per a review of the management letter, the auditor’s noted that there have been no major internal control deficiencies or general accountability issues and acknowledged that in general, the control environment continues to be reliable to support project implementation. Focus of current mission Given that the project is expected to close within the next 12 months i.e. June 30, 2018, i.e., the current FM work focused mainly on ensuring that likely issues which can impact “FM issues during closure� are discussed and addressed and these included the following issues: In this regard the FM work focused mainly on identifying possible risks which are affecting implementation and mitigations. Issues discussed with the team included the following issues:  Review of the outstanding commitments to ensure that there are adequate funds for payment and agree on the likely dates and timelines for completing key activities.  Discussion with the project accounts team on the cash forecast to ensure that all on going activities are adequately provided for in the forecast.  Review of the procurement plan in order to determine if the timelines for completion/delivery are realistic and ensuring that all activities will be completed and handed over by the various contractors/consultants as per their contract terms. This calls for effective contract monitoring and supervision,  Discussions on how to avoid any payment delays or contractual issues (e.g. retentions etc.)  Provision for any new additional activities from the MDA and also within the GSS, - this will be shared with the Bank as part of the revised Work Programme for the remaining 12 months.  Ensuring that all activities will be completed and handed over by the various contractors/consultants by the closing date in order to be considered eligible for payments. The discussions with the Project Team provided clarification on most of the issues as highlighted above and there was satisfactory evidence that the Project Management Team have been made aware of the FM associated risk. Other issues discussed was the need to develop a Work Program for the additional financing of US$4.5million. The key FM Risk for management attention can be summarized as:  Risk of further exchange losses which can limit the fund available for implementation and meeting contractual obligations; (exchange losses to date is estimated at US$4,000,000)  Effective contract management and monitoring to ensure that completion timelines are complied with to guarantee payment by IDA,  Avoiding any cost overruns and variations in work programs particularly by the MDAs involved and any ongoing contracts which will pose a challenge on funding;  Risk of third parties not being able to comply with contractual dates in delivery – leading to possible extensions and slippages. Specific contracts will be addressed in the Procurement and if necessary the scope of work and timelines for delivery will have to be amended.  Ensuring that all on going contracts are delivered on or by closing date. In order to help minimize or mitigate the above risk, the WB and the Project have recommended that going forward all payments must be centralized within the GSS and that no funds will be transferred either by cash or electronically to the MDAs to support activities. All MDA activities will be initiated and processed in line with their respective internal control processes, however all payment documents will be forwarded to the Project Director (GSS) for review and subsequently to the GSS Accounts Department for final payment. Disbursement The GSD Project was signed on February, 2014 with an allocation of XDR18.8million (USD Equiv. US$30.0million) and declared effective on April, 2014. As at the date of the mission, the total funds disbursed under the project amounts to XDR16,046,758(approx.US$23,004,584) representing a disbursement ratio of 85.36% of the allocated funding. Overall funds available is estimated at US$7,000,000. (may vary due to exchange movement between XDR/USD) Regarding the related TF, the funds have been fully disbursed and what remains is for the Project to document an outstanding amount of US$332,382. Based on a review of the outstanding commitments and planned activities as per the procurement plan and annual work plan, there are enough funds to pay for all contractual activities, the key challenge is contract management to ensure that third parties can deliver accordingly. However, this will be firmed up once the Project submits the revised forecast 12 months AWP. The Project Accountant has been tasked to share with the Bank details of the fund positon and this will be monitored on a quarterly basis. On the part of project management there is the need for more effective contract management and monitoring of consultancy assignments to help avoid or minimize any slippages. Transaction Review (SOE) The financial management review included a sample review of all applications submitted during the period January – May 2017. The focus was to help in verifying the authorization and approval processes, determine if all expenses were eligible and also to verify adequacy of documentation, filing, referencing and effectiveness of document management procedures. The review noted that of the sampled expenditure these were all eligible and had been duly authorized and approved in line with the various guidelines and Government of Ghana procedures. Next Steps:  GSS to prepare a detailed final 12 months revised Work Programme and Budget including if applicable a Procurement Plan.  Accounts Team to submit an overall Fund/Cash Position for the Project.  Internal Audit to undertake an indepth audit of the MDA expenditure and issue such report to the Bank not later than September 30, 2017. Overall Risk Rating Overall the FM arrangement of the project is maintained as Satisfactory (S) and the FM Risk remains Moderate, as there has been no adverse change in the arrangements as documented in the PAD. However, even though management has given assurances, the Bank wants to reemphasize the point that there is potential fiduciary risk associated with possible delays in executing some planed contracts/activities and if these are not well monitored or managed can affect overall fiduciary risk and non-payment. This risk will be monitored and evaluated periodically. Annex 5. GSDP MONITORING RESULTS FRAMEWORK *Please indicate whether the indicator is a Core Sector Indicator **Target values should be entered for the years data will be available, not necessarily annually. Project Development Objective (PDO): To strengthen the national statistics system in the production and dissemination of timely and robust statistics relevant for evidence based policy-making and other uses PDO Level Results Indicators C Unit of Baseline Cumulative Target Values** Frequency Data Responsibi Description o Measure Source/ - lity for (indicator r 2014 2015 2016 2017 201 Methodolo Data definition) e 8 gy Collection Relevance: % 40 Target - 50 - 90 User GSS User Satisfaction User satisfaction with statistical (2011) Actual 78.8 - 82.10 82.10 Baseline, satisfactio Survey designed products and services of the NSS (2012) mid-term, n survey in consultation end-of- with GSS covers project internationally recognized elements of statistical quality. Overall quality: Score Annual WB WB/DEC- Internationally Ghana Statistical Capacity score Statistical DG recognized overall score and disaggregated by Capacity indicator the following components: Indicator 64 Target 64 64 66 68 70 - Overall Actual 62 66 66 66 50 Target 55 55 60 60 65 - methodology, Actual 60 60 60 60 50 Target 55 55 60 60 65 - source data, and Actual 40 54 54 54 92 Target 92 92 92 92 92 - periodicity and timeliness Actual 87 87 87 87 Dissemination of timely and Months Annual Annual GSS Number of robust statistics: review of months elapsed Number of months between end of implement between end of data collection and release of main ation of data collection report for household surveys: census and and release of Target 2 2 2 1 survey data. - Annual School Census Actual 2 2 2 plan 18 Target 9 - - 6 Target for GLSS (2006) Actual 10 - reduced to 6 - GLSS (2014) months Target 8 3 3 3 3 - Labor Force Survey Actual 11 15 Production of robust statistics: Yes/No No Target Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Annual GSS Economic statistics produced in Actual No No review of accordance with internationally implement recommended duration of the base Target No Yes Yes ation year (rebased within the last 5 years) for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) Actual No No and for the GDP INTERMEDIATE RESULTS Intermediate Result (Component One): Institutional Reform and Organizational Change Intermediate Result indicator One: % 39 Target 44 50 60 70 70 Annual Annual GSS and Staff with Proportion of GSS staff with review of MDAs qualification in professional qualifications Actual 45.1 48 62.1 67.8 staffing statistics, Intermediate Result indicator Two: % 65 Target 65 70 70 70 70 Annual profile demography, Proportion of MDA statistical unit within economics or in staff with professional qualification Actual 65 65 65.6 65.6 GSS and related discipline MDA Intermediate Result indicator Three: Number 532 Target 350 350 350 350 350 Annual statistical Number of staff (full-time units equivalents) employed by GSS Actual 477 385 372 360 Intermediate Result (Component Two): Enhancing Capacity Intermediate Result indicator One Number Target 70 70 70 70 70 Annual Annual GSS and Cumulative (sub-component 2a): Number of Actual 21 25 45 review of MDAs number of staff persons trained staffing from the National profile Statistical System within trained (for 2 GSS and months or more) MDA statistical units Intermediate Result indicator Two Yes/No No Target Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Annual Annual GSS (sub-component 2b): Use of master review of sampling frame based on updated implement cartographic maps for household Actual Yes Yes Yes Yes ation of surveys census and survey plan. Intermediate Result indicator Three Number 0 Target 14 20 20 20 20 Annual Review as GSS Basic equipment (sub-component 2c): MDA and part of &MDAs includes desk, regional statistics offices equipped project chair, and and operational with computers, implement computer, access essential equipment and furniture ation to printer and and ICT connectivity progress photocopier, and reports connection to the Actual 10 20 20 20 internet. Refers to those MDAs included in the GSDP. Total is 10 MDAs (incl. GSS HQ) + 10 regional offices. Intermediate Result (Component Three): Data Production and Dissemination Intermediate Result indicator One Yes/No Annual GSS Annual (sub-component 3a): Recent source review of data for economic statistics produced quality of in accordance with internationally economic accepted standards. statistics (supported through IMF EDDI program) - Supply and US Tables No Target No No No Yes Yes Actual No No No No - Producer Price Index No Target No No Yes Yes Yes Actual No No No No Intermediate Result indicator Two Yes/No No Target No Yes Yes Yes Yes Annual GSS Review of (sub-component 3b): (until minutes of Communication and Dissemination adopted) NSS Policy adopted by NSS Technical Actual No No No No technical Committee committee meetings Intermediate Result indicator Three Yes/No No Target Yes Yes Yes Annual GSS Annual This is a new (sub-component 3b): Production and review of indicator from publication of a release calendar on Actual Yes Yes the web June 2016. the website of GSS (New since June site of GSS 2016)