SALIENT FEATURES OF TRADE PERFORMANCE IN EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AFRICA Africa Region Working Paper Series No.76 October 2004 Abstract This paper reviews the main trends in growth, direction, and structure of intra- and extra-regional trade in the eastern and southern Africa (ESA) region and its trading blocks (COMESA, SADC, SACU and EAC). The region's trade evolution over the 1990-2001 shows some troubling features. Unlike other developing countries, the ESA region has increased its marginalization in world trade. The declining share in world exports reflects export failure in some countries and growth failure in others. The main impact of such marginalization has been either a slowdown in imports or an increase in external debt. The share of intra-regional trade in region's total trade increased only marginally in all the trading blocks. Furthermore, such increase is concentrated mainly in two countries: South Africa and Kenya, which have large and growing trade surpluses with other countries in the region. Intra-regional trade is substantially lower in the ESA region than in other regional trading blocks. The region's export composition changed only marginally, unlike other developing regions, which experienced an increase in manufactured exports. As a result, there has been little change in the skill and technology intensity of exports in all trading blocks. Exports remain concentrated in non-fuel primary commodities and resource based and labor-intensive manufactures. The trading blocks' exports are generally growing at a lower rate than world exports ­ the share of dynamic products in the region is significantly low compared to other developing countries. ESA's challenge to reverse its increasing marginalization in world trade is to fully exploit its comparative advantage in agriculture and minerals through trade facilitation policies while diversifying also into other exports by gradually increasing the degree of primary good processing and increasing manufactured exports. Policies to make the export sector competitive and profitable need to be pursued relentlessly. The Africa Region Working Paper Series expedites dissemination of applied research and policy studies with potential for improving economic performance and social conditions in Sub-Saharan Africa. The series publishes papers at preliminary stages to stimulate timely discussions within the Region and among client countries, donors, and the policy research community. The editorial board for the series consists of representatives from professional families appointed by the Region's Sector Directors. For additional information, please contact Momar Gueye, (82220), Email: mgueye@worldbank.org or visit the Web Site: http://www.worldbank.org/afr/wps/index.htm. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions in this paper are those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the World Bank, its Executive Directors, or the countries that they represent and should not be attributed to them. AFRICA REGION WORKING PAPER SERIES NO. 76 SALIENTFEATURESOF TRADEPERFORMANCE IN EASTERN AND SOUTHERNAFRICA Fahrettin Yagci Enrique Aldaz-Carroll October 2004 3 Authors' Affiliations and Sponsorship Enrique Aldaz-Carroll, Young Professional, The World Bank Email: Ealdazcarroll@worldbank.org Fahrettin Yagci, Lead Economist, Email: Fyagci@worldbank.org Lawrence E. Hinkle Lead International Economist, AFTPM Email: Lhinkle@worldbank.org We would like to thank all those who provided very useful comments on the paper; particularly Douglas Addison, Emmanuel Akpa, Manuel de la Rocha, Elwyn Grainger-Jones, Lawrence Hinkle, Christos Kostopoulos, Lolette Kritzinger- Niekerk, Philippe Le Houerou, Jörg Mayer, Peter Moll, Matthew Stern, Claire Michele Thirriot, and Jos Verbeek; and Momar Gueye who provided logistical support. - 4 - TABLE OF CONTENTS Page EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................ 5 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................... 9 GROWTH OF TRADE ...................................................................... 9 The Share of the Region in World Trade ........................................ 9 Is the Region Under-trading? ...................................................... 10 What are the Causes of Marginalization of the Region in World Trade? ... 12 Possible Economic Impact of Region's Marginalization ...................... 16 DIRECTION OF TRADE .................................................................. 17 STRUCTURAL CHANGE IN TRADE .................................................. 20 Change in Composition of Exports ............................................. 20 Change in Revealed Comparative Advantage ................................... 23 Change in Skill and Technology Intensity of Exports ........................ 23 Dynamic Products .................................................................. 26 REGION'S TRADE PROSPECTS .......... ............. ................................ 33 REFERENCES .............................................................................. 35 ANNEXES .................................................................................... 37 Annex 1: Data Sources and Methodology ...................................... 38 Annex 2: Membership of Regional Trade Agreements (RIA)................ 40 Annex 3: Under-trading and Overtrading of different regions ............ 41 Annex 4: Under-trading and Overtrading of ESA Countries............... 42 Annex 5: Destination of Exports: Country Data............................... 44 Annex 6: Composition of Exports: Country Data ............................ 45 Annex 7: Revealed Comparative Advantage: Country Data ................ 46 Annex 8: Factor Intensity of Exports: Country Data ......................... 47 - 5 - EXECUTIVE SUMMARY i. This paper reviews the main trends in growth, direction, and structure of intra- and extra- regional trade in eastern and southern Africa (ESA) in the 1990-2001 period. It analyzes the main determinants underlying these trends, examines some broader policy implications, and indicates areas for further work. In particular, the paper addresses the following questions. What are the causes of the region's marginalization in the world economy? How the economies in the region have reacted to marginalization? How has the direction and composition of trade changed in the region in this period? Has the intra-regional trade increased and what accounts for such increase? What is the skill and technology intensity of the region's exports? What is the share of the region in the export of dynamic products? How can the region reverse its marginalization in the world economy? ii. The trade data are reviewed for all 25 countries of the region1. The data are aggregated for the major regional trading blocks such as COMESA, SADC, SACU, EAC, and the landlocked countries as a group. To simplify the presentation, the discussion in this paper focuses primarily on broader trends in trade performance of the trading blocks and selected countries. The annexes provide detailed country-level data that would be particularly useful for country-level analysis to infer policy recommendations. iii. The main findings of the paper are summarized as follows: a. Marginalization of the region in world trade. The share of the region in world exports declined from 1.05 percent in 1990-92 to 0.97 percent in 1999-01, indicating the failure of the region to take advantage of the trade opportunities created by rapid globalization since the 1980s. The share of the region in world imports also declined in the same period from 1.13 percent to 1.02 percent. Had the region maintained the share of world exports it had in the early 1990s, its cumulative exports from 1990 to 2001 would be about $42 billion higher than its actual total exports over the period, which may be compared to an increase of $43 billion in total external debt of the region in the same period. The adverse effect of such revenue loss on growth and poverty in the region is likely to be large. Only five countries in the region (Botswana, Lesotho, Madagascar, South Africa, and Sudan) managed to increase their shares in world exports. In the same period, the share of developing countries in world exports and imports increased from 18.5 percent to 26.8 percent and from 18.7 percent to 25.3 percent, respectively. b. Causes of marginalization. To understand the main causes of the region's marginalization in world trade, the cumulative revenue loss of $42 billion is decomposed into three components: losses due to price effect (change in region's export prices relative to the world average), openness effect (change in region's export-to-GDP ratio relative to the world average), and growth effect (growth rate of 1Angola, Botswana, Burundi, Comoros, Djibouti, DRC, Egypt, Eritreo, Ethiopía, Kenya, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, Rwanda, Seychelles, South Africa, Sudan, Swaziland. Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe. The data sources are given in Annex 1. - 6 - region's GDP relative to the world average). The price effect is small and positive in most countries. The contribution of openness and growth effects to revenue loss is large and varies widely among countries and trading blocks, indicating that declining share in world exports reflect export failure in some countries and growth failure in others. One policy implication of this is that, for a reversal of marginalization, policy reforms should focus more on trade policies and competitiveness in countries in the former group and more on broader growth policies and accelerating investment in countries in the latter group. c. Impact of marginalization. The main impact of marginalization has been either a growth slowdown or an increase in external debt depending on whether the countries reacted to the revenue loss by reducing their imports and/or borrowing more to avoid a reduction of imports. In the former case, a decline in imports has likely adversely affected investment, growth and poverty given their strong dependence on foreign technology and imported inputs, machinery and equipment, and food. In the latter case, debt dependence has increased substantially as reflected in an increase of total external debt of the region by $43 billion in this period, leading to heavy debt service obligations. d. Direction of trade. The direction of trade changed significantly in all countries. The share of the EU, the largest trading partner of the region, fell considerably in region's exports (from 50.4 percent in the early nineties to 41.5 percent in the late nineties) despite preferential access to the EU market under the Lome Convention. The EU's share in region's imports also fell from 47.5 percent to 37.6 percent. The share of all other major trading partners of the region (USA, East Asia, South Asia) as well as the share of intra-regional trade increased in the same period. Causes and consequences of these changes need to be further studied because they have implications for trade policies and regional integration arrangements. e. Intra-regional trade. The share of intra-regional trade in region's total trade increased marginally in all trading blocks. However, the increase concentrated in two countries: South Africa and Kenya. While these two countries supply a large part of total intra-regional exports they receive only a small proportion of intra-regional imports. This asymmetric trend leads to large and growing trade surplus of South Africa and Kenya with the region, and requires further analysis. In addition, intra- regional trade is substantially lower in the ESA region (under 10 percent) compared to regional trading blocks in other parts of the world. The low intra-block trade reflects partly limited progress towards trade liberalization, elimination of transport bottlenecks, and improvement in trade facilitation including customs administration under regional agreements (World Bank 2000b). It may also be an indication of limited trade potential among countries in the blocks particularly among the poorer countries, because they have similar factor endowments and trade similar goods. f. Alternative approaches to mainstreaming regionalism. Given limited success in regional integration, the region should consider focusing more on regional cooperation on joint infrastructure and trade facilitation projects and on policy harmonization coupled with liberalizing its trade regime among themselves and on an - 7 - most-favored-nation (MFN) basis rather than moving towards more complex regional preferential trade arrangements. Creating an economic space where investors can produce for regional as well as global markets and paying more attention to multilateral negotiations to influence the trading rules dismantling restrictive trade practices that inhibit export expansion and diversification may provide small economies of the region with better growth opportunities than focusing largely on intraregional trade. g. Export diversification. The composition of exports changed only marginally in the region. In all trading blocks, the share of primary goods in total exports has fallen, but primary goods still constitute almost three-quarters of total exports. There is a wide difference in export composition between the region and other developing countries. The share of primary goods in the exports of the ESA group is about twice compared to the share of other developing countries (62 percent versus 31 percent in 1998-00), while the share of manufacturing exports is about half compared to other developing countries (36 percent versus 68 percent in the same period). This reflects that the revealed comparative advantage of almost all countries in the region is in the primary goods sector and it has changed little in this period. In addition, exports in most countries are concentrated in one or two products. h. Skill and technology mix of exports. The skill and technology intensity of exports is very similar in all country groupings: exports are concentrated in non-fuel primary commodities and resource-based and labor-intensive manufactures. These two groups constitute over 50 percent of total non-fuel exports of all country-groupings. The data also indicate very little change in factor intensity in the region, and that the gap between the region and other developing countries is very large and increasing. For example, the share of products in the top three skill/technology categories in ESA's exports increased from 12 to 15 percent from period 1990-92 to 1998-00. In the same period, the share of the same category of products in other developing countries increased from 25 to 42 percent. i. Dynamic products. Dynamic products in world trade are defined as the products that grow at a rate higher than the average growth rate of world exports. We identified 59 products (of the 225 products at the three-digit level) as dynamic products in world trade for the 1990-2000 period. They constituted 47 percent of world non-fuel exports in this period. The share of dynamic products in non-fuel exports in the ESA region is significantly lower compared to other developing countries and varies substantially among countries. The analysis show that there are dynamic products within the group of primary commodities, and the resource-based and labor-intensive manufactures -- the broad sectors that dominate exports of the ESA region. They include: precious stones, knitted or crocheted fabrics, furniture, vegetable oil, beverages, wood manufactures, margarine, food products, glass, spices, toys, paper products, etc. iv. Region's likely trade trajectory. Region's resource endowment points to the path that its trade would likely to follow in the future. As Wood and Mayer (2001) and Wood (2002) argue, because it is natural resource-abundant, as are the Americas, Africa is likely to follow a - 8 - development trajectory in the direction of the Americas2. This means, the sectoral structure of an increasingly prosperous ESA region is more likely to resemble those of Americas with a larger primary sector and a smaller manufacturing sector than the natural resource-scarce regions of Asia and Europe. The initial result of capital accumulation in the poor natural resource-abundant countries in the region will be first strengthening the production of primary products and then shifting from unprocessed to processed primary products (which are more capital-intensive). As the capital/natural resource ratio rises to a level high enough, the comparative advantage would shift from primary production to manufacturing. v. Consequently, the policy priorities in the natural resource-abundant countries in the region will differ in some respects from those of a natural resource-scarce developing countries. The former countries will need to focus more on applying technology and knowledge to nature, strengthening government support for regional research and training in the natural resource- based sectors, stimulating investment in these sectors, improving land-rights, eliminating urban bias in economic policies, and promoting vigilance against livestock diseases. It is widely acknowledged that the region has not yet benefited from a technological green revolution and its accompanying intensification of water and fertilizer use, and the region's primary sectors are overly undercapitalized. vi. Reversing marginalization of the region in world trade. Given the region's tiny and fragmented economies and low per capita income, it is hard to imagine a successful growth drive based solely on domestic markets. It is necessary therefore to anchor development strategy in the region in export promotion and diversification to reverse the erosion of region's share in world trade. Policies to make the export sector competitive and profitable need to be pursued relentlessly. The region has potential for sustained growth of exports. While fully exploiting its comparative advantage in agriculture and minerals, the region needs to diversify into other labor- intensive exports, including in agro-processing, manufacturing and services. Some countries in the region (Mauritius, Botswana, Lesotho, Madagascar, Uganda, etc) have already began to realize this potential. The challenge now is to sustain this momentum in some countries and to initiate in others. This requires actions on several fronts, including strengthening the supply response, providing a stable macroeconomic environment with competitive real exchange rates, eliminating anti-export bias in the trade regime, and widening economic space through mainstreaming regionalism in a new way. 2Their analysis is related to sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) as a whole. Because the economic characteristics of the ESA region is not significantly different from those of SSA, the analysis would also apply to the ESA region. - 9 - 1. INTRODUCTION 1. This paper examines the evolution of eastern and southern Africa's (ESA) trade in terms of its growth, composition, direction, and skill and technology intensity in the 1990-2000 period. It analyzes the main determinants underlying these trends, examines some policy implications, and highlights areas of further studies. It updates and extends previous analysis of trade date in a number of areas concentrating on the ESA region. The paper is prepared as part of a broader study of the causes of poor export performance of the ESA region providing a quantitative background for the follow up policy analysis of the regional trading blocks and individual countries studies. 2. The rest of the paper is structured as follows. Section 2 reviews the main trends in the growth of region's trade and examines the main causes and the possible impact of marginalization of the region in the world economy. Section 3 focuses on the changes in the direction of trade considering both extra- and intra-regional trade and assesses the results. Section 4 is devoted to the assessment of the structural change in exports. In particular, it discusses the changes in the commodity composition, the revealed comparative advantage, and the skill and technology of exports. It also analyses the share of dynamic products in region's exports. The final section reviews the main literature on Africa's comparative advantage and the likely trajectory the region's production and trade would follow. 2. GROWTH OF TRADE The share of the region in world trade 3. The share of the region in world exports declined from 1.05 percent in 1990-92 to 0.97 percent in 1999-01 (Table 1). The region's share in world imports also declined in the same period from 1.13 percent to 1.02 percent. This trend is unfavorably compared to developing countries. In the same period, developing countries managed to increase their share in both world exports and imports from 18.5 percent to 26.8 percent and from 18.7 percent to 25.3 percent, respectively. The disintegration of the region in world trade indicates the failure of the region to take advantage of the trade opportunities created by rapid globalization since the 1980s. 4. There are important inter-country variations in trade performance in the region. The share of 13 countries in world exports declined (Burundi, Comoros, DRC, Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Rwanda, Swaziland, Zambia, and Zimbabwe). Seven countries maintained their shares (Angola, Djibouti, Eritrea, Namibia, Seychelles, Tanzania, and Uganda). Only five countries in the region managed to increase their shares in world exports (Botswana, Lesotho, Madagascar, South Africa, and Sudan). 5. Regarding the country groupings in the region (see Annex 2 for the country membership of the country groupings), the share of all groupings in world exports with the exception of SACU declined. The largest decline took place in the case of landlocked countries (35 percent) followed by COMESA (25 percent). In the case of SACU, three of the five - 10 - members (South Africa, Botswana, and Lesotho) managed to strengthen their integration with the world market (Table 1). Table 1: Main Trends in Trade Growth Rates 1990-2001 (%) Export to GDP Share in World Share in World ratio (%) Exports (%) Imports (%) Exports Imports GDP 1990-1992 1999-2001 1990-1992 1999-2001 1990-1992 1999-2001 WORLD 6.44 6.37 3.32 15.45 19.97 100 100 100 100 Non-African DCs 10.75 9.97 4.66 17.98 30.64 18.45 26.75 18.68 25.30 ESA 5.58 5.43 3.00 15.08 18.65 1.05 0.97 1.13 1.02 COMESA 3.16 4.17 5.04 17.18 14.77 0.56 0.42 0.71 0.57 SADC 6.11 5.84 0.67 16.80 26.48 0.81 0.78 0.64 0.59 EAC 5.88 4.60 6.15 12.68 13.28 0.06 0.06 0.10 0.08 SACU 7.80 7.91 0.57 13.55 24.60 0.50 0.55 0.37 0.42 Landlocked 1.98 1.31 1.42 15.81 16.25 0.14 0.09 0.14 0.09 Rest of Africa 4.41 3.29 1.34 30.30 39.83 1.62 1.34 1.48 1.14 Angola 6.18 4.00 -0.03 40.58 80.96 0.108 0.108 0.05 0.04 Botswana 12.93 1.28 3.11 7.76 20.12 0.009 0.017 0.01 0.00 Burundi -8.04 -4.19 -4.64 10.42 8.64 0.003 0.001 0.00 0.00 Comoros -3.69 -2.03 -1.73 11.30 10.81 0.001 0.000 0.00 0.00 Congo, D.R. -2.93 -5.04 -7.29 19.48 22.76 0.049 0.021 0.03 0.01 Djibouti 7.15 3.99 2.38 20.47 32.26 0.003 0.003 0.01 0.01 Egypt 1.05 5.12 9.97 13.15 6.10 0.152 0.095 0.34 0.30 Eritrea 13.54 14.10 5.69 0.33 1.89 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 Ethiopia 6.20 0.86 1.04 5.10 7.31 0.009 0.008 0.03 0.02 Kenya 5.44 5.36 4.20 17.11 21.46 0.040 0.037 0.05 0.05 Lesotho 13.93 3.00 2.42 9.59 23.65 0.002 0.003 0.00 0.00 Madagascar 9.90 9.50 3.72 13.63 22.71 0.011 0.015 0.01 0.01 Malawi 1.84 -0.33 -0.22 22.35 26.06 0.012 0.008 0.02 0.01 Mauritius 3.80 5.29 5.54 45.65 39.34 0.035 0.028 0.04 0.03 Mozambique 2.92 3.63 6.61 16.79 12.61 0.011 0.008 0.02 0.02 Namibia 6.22 10.34 2.46 14.95 21.98 0.012 0.012 0.00 0.01 Rwanda -5.17 -0.17 -0.90 7.15 4.13 0.004 0.001 0.01 0.00 Seychelles 8.13 9.37 5.69 27.33 31.37 0.003 0.003 0.00 0.01 South Africa 7.83 8.02 0.38 13.49 24.87 0.463 0.507 0.36 0.40 Sudan 12.73 2.65 1.93 4.29 13.14 0.013 0.025 0.03 0.02 Swaziland -2.42 3.65 4.61 45.18 24.47 0.012 0.005 0.00 0.00 Tanzania 5.80 2.00 8.51 10.17 8.59 0.013 0.013 0.03 0.02 Uganda 8.74 7.70 7.04 5.57 6.10 0.006 0.006 0.01 0.01 Zambia -5.53 0.57 0.35 40.52 22.98 0.038 0.013 0.02 0.01 Zimbabwe 1.72 0.67 -0.92 20.77 25.77 0.047 0.031 0.04 0.02 Sources and notes can be found in Appendix 1. DCs=developing countries. 6. Had the region maintained the share of world exports it had in the early 1990s, its cumulative exports from 1990 to 2001 would be over $41.7 billion (7.3 percent) higher than its actual total exports in the period. This revenue loss may be compared to the $43 billion increase in the combined foreign debt of the region in the same period. The largest losers in export revenue are Egypt ($18.8 billion), DRC ($11.4 billion), Zambia ($9.1 billion), Angola ($8.1 billion), and Zimbabwe ($5.2 billion). The adverse impact of such a large revenue loss on growth and poverty in the region is likely to be substantial. Is the region under-trading? 7. There are two competing views to explain why Africa has been marginalized in world trade. The first view states that Africa has been marginalized because it under-trades; that - 11 - is, it trades below what would be expected by international norms once the income levels and the size of its economies are taken into account3. The second view maintains that Africa does not under-trade, and marginalization is explained by the continent's poor GDP growth performance4. 8. The outcome of this debate has important policy implications for the region. If the under- trading hypothesis is confirmed, policy reforms would focus more on trade policy and on further strengthening competition and opening up of the economies in the region5. If, on the other hand, the alternative hypothesis is confirmed, the emphasis would be more on broader economic policies and accelerating investment to achieve economic growth. One should note however that these sets of policies are not mutually exclusive. What is emphasized in these hypotheses is the relative weight to be given to various policies. 9. With the exception of Subramanian and Tamirisa (2001), all earlier studies on the subject were conducted for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) as a whole, overlooking the substantial regional differences in SSA. Subramanian and Tamirisa disaggregated Africa into the West and Central (Francophone) Africa and the Eastern and Southern (Anglophone) Africa and compared their trade with developed and developing countries using a gravity model for the 1980-97 period. They found that (a) the Francophone Africa was an under- trader and its under-trading was increasing, and (b) the Anglophone Africa was an average trader but showed signs that it was not keeping pace with global integration. 10. In this paper, we follow the Subramanian and Tamirisa route and further disaggregate the Anglophone Africa into COMESA, SADC, EAC, SACU, and landlocked countries to test the under-trading hypothesis. We used the methodology employed by Rodrik (1999) ­ regressing the export-to-GDP ratio against population, land area, per capita income, and dummies for regional groupings. We ran the regression for the first half and second half of the 1990s to analyze the changes over time (See Annex 1b for an explanation of the methodology and Annexes 3 and 4 for the regression results)6. 11. The results show that 12 of the 22 countries in the sample are under-traders. This group includes larger countries such as South Africa, Egypt, Sudan, and Mozambique as well as smaller ones including Comoros, Lesotho, and Rwanda. For most of the under-traders, the degree of under-trading has declined in the second period. Over-traders also constitute a mixed group. They include larger countries (Kenya, Namibia), smaller ones (Swaziland, Malawi), landlocked countries (Zambia, Zimbabwe), and island economies (Madagascar, Mauritius). Note also that Botswana, Egypt, and Tanzania were over- trading in the first period. Their position changed to under-trading in the second period. 3Sachs and Warner (1997), IMF (2001). 4Foroutan and Pritchett (1993), Rodrik (1997, 1999), Coe and Hoffmaister (1999). 5World Bank (2000b), Sachs (2000). 6In each regression, a dummy variable is included for the particular region (or country) to check whether the estimated coefficient is negative and statistically significant, as it would be if the region (country) were an under- former, or positive and statistically significant, as it would be if the region were an over-performer. Since our sample covers most of the countries in the world, the regression coefficients are closer to being population values than sample estimates. Therefore, we will focus on the sign of the coefficients without placing too much importance on their significance. - 12 - Madagascar is the only country whose position changed from under-trading to over- trading7. 12. Regarding country groupings, COMESA, EAC and landlocked countries under-trade, while SACU and SADC over-trade.8 The results also show that the ESA group and sub- Saharan Africa as a whole are under-traders and that the degree of under-trading increased in the second period. The latter results are broadly consistent with earlier studies. What are the causes of marginalization of the region in world trade? 13. To examine the causes of the region's marginalization in world trade, we decomposed the loss of export revenue into its three components: losses due to price effect, openness effect, and growth effect, defined by the differences between the region's and the world's (a) export prices, (b) export-to-GDP ratios in constant prices, and (c) GDP growth rates, respectively (see Annex 3 for the description of the methodology). 14. According to this methodology, there are three possible causes of the region's loss of share in world exports: the region's export prices have increased at a slower rate compared to the world export prices, the region's export-to-GDP ratio has increased at a slower rate compared to the world export-to-GDP ratio, and the region's GDP growth has been slower than the growth of world income. The decomposition results are presented in Table 39. 15. Table 3 shows that price effect in 14 of the 25 countries in the ESA region is positive, indicating that export prices in these countries increased faster than the world export prices during the 1990-2001 (Figure 1). In terms of country groupings, the price effect was positive for all country groupings with the exception of SACU and Landlocked Countries indicating a $19 billion gain in export revenue for the ESA group, $20 billion for COMESA, and $7 billion for SADC (Table 3). 16. The openness and the growth effects vary widely among the countries and the country groupings. For example, while the openness effect was negative for Egypt ($54 billion), it was positive in the case of South Africa ($44 billion). This is explained by a declining export-to-GDP ratio relative to the world in the case of Egypt, and an increasing export- to-GDP ratio relative to the world in the case of South Africa (Table 1). In contrast, the growth effect was positive for Egypt ($15 billion), but negative for South Africa ($38 billion). This is a reflection of relative growth rates of GDP: while Egypt's GDP grew 7It is beyond the scope of this paper to explain the placing of countries in these groupings. For example, Botswana's under-trading in the second period may be explained by a fall-off in diamond sales in the late 1990s. 8Note that the results for each country group are obtained incorporating a group dummy in the regression. The group dummy takes value 1 for all its member countries. Consequently, all member countries have the same weight in determining the coefficient of the group dummy. Group results are therefore not the trade weighted average of country results. This explains why SACU over-trades in spite of South Africa's under-trading (three of the five SACU countries overtrade). 9Note that the three effects do not add up to total revenue loss because we are reporting only the partial effects of the three possible causes of marginalization, overlooking their joint effect. As in any non-linear relationship, the sum of the marginal effect of each variable does not equal to their total effect. - 13 - faster (10.0 percent) compared to the world (3.3 percent), South Africa achieved a lower growth rate (0.4 percent) in the prescribed period (Table 1). 17. To recap, during the 1990-2001 period, while Egypt's GDP grew faster compared to the world average, its export-to-GDP ratio fell, indicating that the failure to maintain its openness was the main cause of the loss of its share in world exports. South Africa, on the other hand, managed to increase its exports-to-GDP ratio but realized very low GDP growth rate compared to the world average. Therefore, inadequate GDP growth was a key factor affecting its exports, with causality in both directions (low output reducing exports and low exports reducing output). - 14 - Table 3. Breakdown of the difference between actual and potential export revenue (1990-2001) (%) Billion US $ Difference between actual and Difference between Difference Difference Difference potential export revenue as actual and potential attributed attributed to attributed to a percentage of period's export revenue to price openness growth export revenue over the period effect effect effect ESA 7.30 -41.7 19.1 -20.3 -20.3 COMESA 21.81 -58.1 19.5 -66.7 1.7 SADC 5.68 -25.4 6.9 14.0 -64.8 EAC 4.18 1.5 3.5 -0.7 1.2 SACU 4.96 15.1 -7.5 42.3 -37.7 Landlocked 27.26 -17.7 -5.5 -7.1 -10.1 South Africa 6.01 17.2 -5.9 44.2 -37.9 Sudan 18.14 1.6 .. 3.2 -2.4 Uganda 30.41 1.4 0.2 0.6 0.9 Madagascar 13.96 1.1 1.7 1.1 -0.1 Botswana 14.37 0.8 -0.8 0.9 -0.1 Lesotho 27.35 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.0 Ethiopia 5.00 0.3 1.2 1.0 -1.0 Eritrea 88.96 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 Kenya 0.34 0.1 2.3 1.3 -2.6 Djibouti 2.67 0.0 .. 0.1 -0.1 Tanzania 0.03 0.0 0.7 -1.5 0.9 Comoros 88.89 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 Seychelles 30.57 -0.4 0.2 -0.6 0.1 Burundi 50.13 -0.6 -0.6 0.0 -0.6 Namibia 12.18 -0.7 -0.1 -0.5 -0.2 Rwanda 105.82 -1.3 0.2 -0.5 -0.6 Malawi 31.70 -1.7 -0.5 -0.3 -1.6 Mozambique 50.81 -2.1 -0.6 -2.6 0.2 Mauritius 13.54 -2.4 0.5 -5.4 2.0 Swaziland 65.62 -2.6 0.6 -3.3 0.3 Zimbabwe 22.94 -5.2 -4.8 1.3 -8.0 Angola 14.78 -8.1 3.9 14.0 -35.0 Zambia 70.41 -9.1 -3.0 -5.7 -1.9 Congo, D.R. 65.86 -11.4 0.8 -0.2 -11.2 Egypt 27.11 -18.8 6.9 -53.8 14.7 Source: See Annex 1. Note: Potential export revenue= export revenue obtained by the region (or country) had its world market share not changed over the period. Countries are ordered according to the difference between potential and actual export revenue. The difference between actual and potential export revenue as a percentage of the period's export revenue was calculated as the ratio between the difference over the period and the sum of actual export revenue over the period. An explanation of why the price, openness, and growth effects do not add to the total difference between potential and actual export revenue over the period can be found in the Annex 1c). - 15 - Figure 1 Annual average growth of export prices relative to world export prices, 1990-2001* -0.15 -0.1 -0.05 0 0.05 0.1 Angola Rwanda Congo, Dem. Rep. Madagascar COMESA Ethiopia Swaziland Seychelles Eritrea Kenya ECA Egypt, Arab Rep. Tanzania ESA SADC Mauritius Malawi Namibia South Africa SACU Lesotho Uganda Mozambique Landlocked Botswana Zimbabwe Comoros Zambia Burundi Source: African Development Indicators 2002 and IMF Direction of Trade Statistics 2002. * Export prices are export unit values. The annual average growth of export prices is the least squares growth rate for the period 1990-2001. The annual average growth of a country's export prices relative to that of the world is calculated by subtracting the world annual average growth to the country's annual average growth. Due to missing data in Comoros and Congo D.R., the period is shortened in their case to 1990-99 and 1990-97, respectively. Data for SADC & COMESA export unit values are calculated based on the average export unit values of their member countries weighted by their share in the region's total trade. The value for COMESA was calculated excluding Comoros, Congo DR, Djibouti, Eritrea and Sudan because they do not report data for the entire 1990-2001 period. 18. The decomposition and the cross-country regression results help identify the broad causes of region's marginalization in world trade. Compared to the world average, the poor export growth in the case of Egypt and the poor GDP growth in the case of South Africa seem to be the critical factors explaining the loss of their shares in the world export market. In other words, its declining share in world exports reflects export failure in the case of Egypt and growth failure in the case of South Africa. One implication of this observation is that reforms should focus more on trade policy and further opening up of the economy in the case of Egypt and more on broader economic policies and accelerating investment and growth in the case of South Africa. 19. To understand the possible causes of export failure and growth failure and draw specific policy conclusions in a country context, this analysis would need to be extended in two directions. First, the analysis should take into account all other relevant economic, political, and geographical factors. Second, these quantitative findings need to be linked to trade and behind the border policies explicitly and the interactions analyzed. 20. Extending the interpretation of the results to other countries and the country groupings is straightforward. For example, COMESA and SADC exhibit a pattern similar to Egypt and South Africa. That is, their declining share in world exports reflect export failure in the case of COMESA and growth failure in the case of SADC. Note that for the ESA group as a whole, the openness effect which is negative and very large, is aggravated by the negative growth effect. Because, the positive price effect is not large enough to offset the combined negative effects of openness and growth, the ESA group ended up losing an export revenue of $41.7 billion in the 1990-2001 period. - 16 - Possible economic impact of region's marginalization 21. The impact of the loss of export revenue on the economies in the region can be traced through two main channels: a weakening of import capacity and/or an increase in aid and debt dependence. In other words, a country can react to a loss of export revenue by reducing its imports and/or borrowing more to avoid a reduction of imports. The data indicate that the reaction of the countries in the region to the revenue loss varied widely. 22. The shares of 12 countries in the region in world imports declined during the 1990-2001 period (Table 1). Given their strong dependence on foreign technology and imported inputs, machinery and equipment, and food, a decline in import capacity has likely affected investment, growth, and poverty adversely in these countries. The shares of ten countries in world imports remained constant in this period. Seven of these ten have experienced a loss in their share in world exports. Maintaining their share in world imports while losing share in world exports is possible only by higher borrowing and/or aid indicating increased debt and aid dependence. 23. A proxy indicator to show whether the debt and aid dependence increased is the change in the export-to-import ratio (the share of imports financed by export revenue) during the 1990-2001 period. In ten countries, the export-to-import ratio declined over time (Table 4) indicating that imports were reduced less than the fall in export revenue. This, in turn, implies that import financing by borrowing or aid increased in this period enhancing aid and debt dependence in these countries. Indeed, the regions total debt in this period increased from $70 billion to $113 billion. In the case of 15 countries, the export-to- import ratio increased indicating an import reduction more than the fall in export revenue and a possible fall in the share of aid and borrowing in financing imports. With regard to country groupings, the export-to-import ratio declined only in COMESA and EAC. - 17 - Table 4: Share of Imports Financed by Export Revenue (%) 1990-92 1999-01 COMESA 75 71 EAC 128 127 ESA 89 92 Landlocked 96 102 SACU 57 65 SADEC 123 127 Angola 207 290 Botswana 105 358 Comoros 30 36 Congo, D. R. 162 194 Djibouti 24 33 Eritrea - 8 Ethiopia 29 42 Kenya 71 75 Lesotho 104 252 Madagascar 96 100 Malawi 78 92 Namibia 239 172 Sudan 36 102 Tanzania 38 54 Zimbabwe 110 129 Burundi 69 46 Egypt 43 31 Mauritius 94 80 Mozambique 44 39 Rwanda 77 38 Seychelles 63 50 South Africa 124 122 Swaziland 633 343 Uganda 47 47 Zambia 161 90 Source: IMF Direction of Trade Statistics. 3. DIRECTION OF TRADE 24. The main trend in the direction of trade is that the share of EU, the largest trading partner of all country groupings, declined in the region's trade10 (Table 5). For example, the EU's share in ESA's exports fell from 50.4 percent in 1990-92 to 41.5 percent in 1999-01, and in imports from 47.5 percent to 37.6 percent in the same period. In the case of SACU, EU's share in exports fell from 51.8 percent to 42.8 percent, and in imports from 54.8 percent to 42.5 percent. The EU's share slightly increased only in the exports of landlocked countries. 10Only the analysis of data for the country groupings will be reported in the paper. The country-level data is presented in the Annex 5. - 18 - Table 5: Destination of Exports and Sources of Imports (%) Exports to Imports from Exports to Imports from 1990-92 1999-01 1990-92 1999-01 1990-92 1999-01 1990-92 1999-01 ESA SADC Intra-Region 7.3 9.6 6.8 9.5 Intra-Region 6.9 8.4 8.5 11.3 Extra-Region 92.7 90.4 93.2 90.5 Extra-Region 93.1 91.6 91.5 88.7 Rest of Africa 0.9 1.7 1.1 1.0 Rest of Africa 0.4 1.4 0.9 1.3 USA 14.3 16.1 13.9 11.9 USA 16.5 17.5 11.8 10.0 EU 50.4 41.5 47.5 37.6 EU 49.2 41.1 50.8 38.3 East Asia & Pacific 13.6 18.6 15.7 19.5 East Asia & Pacific 15.4 19.3 16.8 20.4 South Asia 1.8 2.2 1.6 2.5 South Asia 1.1 1.7 1.1 2.2 Rest of World 11.7 10.4 13.3 18.0 Rest of World 7.4 6.7 10.2 16.4 World 100 100 100 100 World 100 100 100 100 COMESA EAC Intra-Region 4.1 5.2 2.7 3.6 Intra-Region 7.9 16.2 4.2 9.5 Extra-Region 95.9 94.8 97.3 96.4 Extra-Region 92.1 83.8 95.8 90.5 Rest of Africa 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.0 Rest of Africa 1.5 1.9 1.0 0.3 USA 17.6 20.2 13.9 12.7 USA 5.0 5.3 4.6 8.2 EU 49.7 40.8 45.0 35.6 EU 51.9 38.9 44.3 26.8 East Asia & Pacific 9.8 16.5 14.7 18.0 East Asia & Pacific 8.1 8.4 19.5 17.8 South Asia 2.8 2.4 2.2 3.1 South Asia 7.4 10.7 4.4 6.5 Rest of World 14.6 13.3 20.1 26.0 Rest of World 18.1 18.6 22.1 30.8 World 100 100 100 100 World 100 100 100 100 SACU Landlocked Intra-Region Intra-Region 6.5 6.1 6.4 5.8 Extra-Region 100 100 100 100 Extra-Region 93.5 93.9 93.6 94.2 Rest of Africa 0.2 1.8 0.3 1.1 Rest of Africa 0.9 0.9 0.3 0.2 USA 10.8 13.1 15.8 12.2 USA 7.3 9.4 8.9 5.0 EU 51.8 42.8 54.8 42.5 EU 41.0 45.5 39.4 24.0 East Asia & Pacific 16.7 20.2 16.9 21.8 East Asia & Pacific 24.1 14.7 11.0 11.3 South Asia 0.5 1.6 0.3 1.5 South Asia 2.5 1.4 2.2 4.3 Rest of World 20.0 20.6 12.0 20.9 Rest of World 17.8 22.1 31.7 49.5 World 100 100 100 100 World 100 100 100 100 Source of data: IMF Direction of Trade Statistics. 25. The share of all other major trading partners in region's trade increased. Trade with East Asia and Pacific increased in almost all country groupings except in landlocked countries' exports. The share of East Asia and Pacific in ESA's exports increased from 13.6 percent in 1990-92 to 18.6 percent in 1999-01, and imports from 15.7 percent to 19.5 percent in the same period. East Asia and Pacific replaced the US as the second largest trading partner of all country groupings except in COMESA's exports. 26. The share of intra-regional trade in total trade of the ESA group (both exports and imports) increased from 1990 to 2001, but it remains very low. The share of intra- regional exports in total exports were up from 7.3 percent to 9.6 percent, while the share of intra-regional imports in total imports increased from 6.8 percent to 9.5 percent. 27. Intra-regional trade increased in all country groupings in the region with EAC experiencing the largest increase ­ from 7.9 percent to 16.2 percent in exports and from 4.2 percent to 9.5 percent in imports. 28. The increase in intra-regional trade is concentrated in just a few countries. For example, almost all increase in intra-regional imports was from Kenya in the case of COMESA, and from South Africa in the case of SADC (Annex 5). Because these two countries do not import much from the member countries, COMESA's trade deficit with Kenya, and SADC's trade deficit with South Africa increased substantially in this period. South - 19 - Africa supplied 72 percent of total intra-regional exports, but received only 15 percent of intra-regional imports in 1999-01. Over 30 percent of Kenya's exports went to other COMESA members, but Kenya received one percent of intra-COMESA imports in the same period. 29. Note that intra-block trade for all country groupings in the ESA region (and within Africa) is substantially lower compared to other regional integration agreements (RIAs) among middle income countries as well as RIAs among high income countries. The share of member country exports that goes to other member countries is 62 percent for the EU, 47 percent for NAFTA, 25 percent for ASEAN, 23 percent for MERCOSUR, 9 percent for ECOWAS and UEMOA, and 2 percent for EMCCAS11. 30. Low intra-block trade reflects partly limited progress towards trade liberalization, elimination of transport bottlenecks, and improvement in trade facilitation including customs administration (World Bank 2000b). It may also be an indication of limited trade potential among countries in the blocks, particularly, among the poorer countries, because they have similar factor endowments and they therefore trade similar goods. Similar factor endowments of countries does not necessarily mean that they have no scope for trade. Trade among such countries is of intra-industry nature. The scope for intra-industry trade varies according to the stage of development. Intra-industry trade is dominant among industrialized countries in sectors producing technology- and skill- intensive manufactures closely integrated through production networks, or consumer goods for niche markets. Given the preponderance of primary goods in the production and exports of the countries in the region, the potential for intra-industry trade within the ESA region seems to be limited. The region has also failed to participate in the fast growing global production chains, in which several countries complete different stages of the fabrication of a manufactured good. 31. When potential trade among neighboring countries is limited, alternative approaches may be needed to mainstream regionalism12. The region should consider focusing more on regional cooperation on joint infrastructure and trade facilitation projects and on policy harmonization coupled with liberalizing its trade regime among themselves and on an MFN basis rather than moving towards more complex regional preferential trade arrangements. Creating an economic space where investors can produce for regional as well as global markets and paying more attention to multilateral negotiations to influence the rules and to dismantle restrictive trade practices that inhibit export diversification in poor countries may provide small economies of the region with better growth opportunities than focusing largely on intraregional trade. 11World Bank (2000a, p.64). 12McCarty (1999), World Bank (2000b). - 20 - 4. STRUCTURAL CHANGE IN TRADE Change in Composition of Exports 32. The composition of exports has changed only marginally since 1990 in the region. In all country groupings, the share of primary goods in total exports has fallen, but primary goods still constitute almost three-quarters of total exports13. In the case of the ESA group, the share of primary goods fell from 75.5 percent in 1990-92 to 62.4 percent in 1998-00, while the share of manufacturing increased from 23.5 percent to 36.2 percent (Table 6). Within manufacturing, textiles and clothing is one of the largest sub-sectors constituting over 20 percent of total manufacturing exports14. Among the RIAs in the region SACU is the one with the lowest share of primary goods in total exports (53.5 percent) and the highest share of manufacturing (44.7 percent) reflecting the export composition of South Africa and Botswana, the two most industrialized countries in the region. 33. Compared to other developing countries, exports of all country groupings in the ESA region are dominated more by primary goods. The share of primary goods in the exports of the ESA group is about twice compared to the share of other developing countries (62 percent versus 31 percent in 1998-00), while the share of manufacturing exports is about half compared to other developing countries (36 percent versus 68 percent in the same period). 34. Inter-country variation is wide (Annex 6). On the one end, there are small economies with limited natural resources such as Lesotho, Botswana, and Mauritius where the share of primary goods is negligible and exports are dominated by one or two manufactures benefiting from preferential trade arrangements. For example, the share of manufactures is 99 percent in Lesotho (almost all textiles), and 72 percent in Mauritius (sugar and textiles). On the other end, there are small and medium size countries where exports are concentrated in one or two primary products such as Angola (oil), Burundi (coffee), Malawi (tobacco), Zambia (Copper), and Seychelles (tuna). Export concentration is more moderate in the medium-size and large countries. The key point coming out of the data is that the composition of exports in all countries, with the exception of Mozambique, has moved away from primary goods but only marginally. Mozambique is the only country where the share of primary goods increased from 62 to 83 percent of total exports. This is explained by substantial increase in the export of aluminum. 13Only the analysis of data for the country groupings will be presented in the paper. Country-level data is presented in the Annex. 14The data do not reflect the impact of the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) of the US which was introduced in 2000. - 21 - Table 6: Composition of Exports (%) 1990-1992 1998-2000 ESA Primary goods 75.50 62.43 All foods 18.60 17.96 Agricultural materials 5.85 4.45 Fuels, Ores and Metals 51.06 40.02 Manufactures 23.49 36.18 of which: Leather, rubber and footwear 0.68 0.91 Wood and paper 1.20 1.41 Textiles and Clothing 5.83 7.28 COMESA Primary goods 82.16 72.88 All foods 21.26 23.20 Agricultural materials 4.89 5.07 Fuels, Ores and Metals 56.01 44.61 Manufactures 17.36 26.27 of which: Leather, rubber and footwear 0.51 0.60 Wood and paper 0.12 0.24 Textiles and Clothing 9.38 13.64 SADC Primary goods 74.18 60.50 All foods 16.69 15.19 Agricultural materials 5.15 3.70 Fuels, Ores and Metals 52.33 41.61 Manufactures 24.77 38.08 of which: Leather, rubber and footwear 0.62 0.90 Wood and paper 1.52 1.68 Textiles and Clothing 4.85 4.89 SACU Primary goods 68.19 53.50 All foods 14.06 12.68 Agricultural materials 6.29 3.58 Fuels, Ores and Metals 47.84 37.24 Manufactures 30.19 44.67 of which: Leather, rubber and footwear 0.90 1.18 Wood and paper 2.44 2.36 Textiles and Clothing 1.92 2.45 EAC Primary goods 86.27 87.94 All foods 69.09 71.37 Agricultural materials 14.64 14.36 Fuels, Ores and Metals 2.54 2.20 Manufactures 12.92 11.34 of which: Leather, rubber and footwear 2.73 0.63 Wood and paper 0.34 0.39 Textiles and Clothing 2.95 2.79 LANDLOCKED Primary goods 86.22 78.30 All foods 39.76 51.14 Agricultural materials 4.85 8.96 Fuels, Ores and Metals 41.61 18.20 Manufactures 13.60 20.94 of which: Leather, rubber and footwear 0.56 1.25 Wood and paper 0.14 0.39 Textiles and Clothing 3.11 5.60 NON-AFRICAN LDCs Primary goods 48.93 30.95 All foods 14.47 9.65 Agricultural materials 4.30 2.49 Fuels, Ores and Metals 30.16 18.81 Manufactures 50.12 67.82 of which: Leather, rubber and footwear 3.15 3.25 Wood and paper 1.71 1.76 Textiles and Clothing 13.32 12.32 WORLD Primary goods 26.22 20.55 All foods 9.28 7.38 Agricultural materials 3.06 2.12 Fuels, Ores and Metals 13.88 11.06 Manufactures 72.12 76.94 of which: Leather, rubber and footwear 2.08 1.92 Wood and paper 2.53 2.30 Textiles and Clothing 6.82 5.99 Note: Totals do not add up to 100 because the miscellaneous category is not included. Source: See Appendix 1. - 22 - 35. The degree of export diversification is measured more formally by the Herfindahl index (A fall in the index over time reflects greater diversification. When exports are evenly distributed over a large number of products, the index approaches zero). As Table 7 shows, progress in export diversification in all country groupings and individual countries has been limited since 1990. Concentration has actually increased in the case of Burundi, DRC, Ethiopia, Mozambique, and Sudan. Export diversification has been largest in the case of Zambia. The share of cooper in total exports declined from 93 percent to 73 percent in this period with substantial increase in the export of horticulture and floriculture. This is partly explained by a fall in copper prices. Table 7: Herfindahl Index of Concentration of Exports 1990-92 1999-01 ESA 0.04 0.03 COMESA 0.17 0.14 SADC 0.05 0.04 EAC 0.13 0.11 SACU 0.07 0.05 Landlocked 0.16 0.10 Angola 0.91 0.81 Botswana1 0.50 Burundi 0.61 0.64 Comoros 0.51 0.33 Congo, D.R. 0.16 0.36 Djibouti 0.15 0.08 Egypt1 0.52 Eritrea1 0.06 Ethiopia2 0.39 0.43 Kenya 0.15 0.14 Lesotho1 0.24 Madagascar 0.11 0.08 Malawi 0.55 0.45 Mauritius 0.16 0.12 Mozambique 0.08 0.14 Namibia1 0.26 Rwanda 0.50 0.41 Seychelles 0.60 0.51 South Africa 0.07 0.05 Sudan 0.28 0.36 Swaziland1 0.15 Tanzania 0.11 0.10 Uganda 0.56 0.48 Zambia 0.70 0.26 Zimbabwe 0.13 0.12 Source: See Appendix 1. Note: When a single export product produces all the revenues index=1 When export revenues are evenly distributed over a large number of products, the index approaches 0. A fall in the index represents greater diversification. 1Value based on 2000 data. 2The value on the third column is the 1995-1997 average. - 23 - Change in revealed comparative advantage 36. This section reviews the change in the revealed comparative advantage (RCA) of all countries in the region15. This review, together with the analysis of dynamic products in region's exports, will provide an important input in the discussion of the prospects for region's trade in Section 5. 37. In terms of broad sectors, the revealed comparative advantage (RCA) of all countries in the region (except Botswana and Lesotho) and in all country groupings is in the primary goods category and it has changed very little since 1990 (Table 8 and Annex 7). The highest RCA is in the fuels, ores and metals sub-sector (an average of 3.62 for the ESA region). The data also indicate that the region's RCA in the primary sector has increased since 1990 (from 2.88 in 1990-92 to 3.04 in 1998-00). 38. All countries in the ESA region have comparative disadvantage in all manufacturing sub- sectors with the exception of textiles and clothing (in Egypt, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, and Swaziland), leather, rubber and footwear (in Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, and Sudan), wood and paper products (in South Africa), and iron and steel (in South Africa). The degree of their disadvantage has fallen since 1990 but only to a limited extent. Change in skill and technology intensity of exports 39. Following UNCTAD (2002), we divided exports, at the three-digit level, into the following six categories according to their skill and technology intensity16: high skill and technology manufactures, medium skill and technology manufactures, low skill and technology manufactures, resource-based and labor intensive manufactures, non-fuel primary commodities, and others (including fuel). 40. The results are in line with the region's factor endowments. The factor intensity of non- fuel exports of all country groupings in 1998-00 is very similar (Table 9): exports are concentrated in non-fuel primary commodities and resource-based and labor intensive manufactures (over 50 percent of total non-fuel exports). The share of products with high and medium skill and technological intensity is very low but slightly higher in SACU reflecting the influence of South Africa and Namibia. 41. The data also indicate that the factor intensity of the region's exports over 1990-2000 changed very little, and that the gap between the region and other developing countries is very large and increasing. For example, the share of the top three categories of products in ESA's exports increased from 12 to 15 percent from period 1990-92 to 1998-00. In the same period, the share of the same category of products in other developing countries increased from 25 to 42 percent. Country level data is presented in Annex 8. 15The RCA of a country in a product is measured as the ratio of that product's share in the country's exports to the share in world exports. If the RCA is higher than one, the country is said to have revealed comparative advantage in that product relative to the world. 16UNCTAD (2002). - 24 - Table 8: Revealed Comparative Advantage 1990-1992 1998-2000 ESA Primary goods 2.88 3.04 All foods 2.00 2.43 Agricultural materials 1.91 2.10 Fuels, Ores and Metals 3.68 3.62 Manufactures 0.33 0.47 of which: Leather, rubber and footwear 0.33 0.48 Wood and paper 0.47 0.61 Textiles and Clothing 0.85 1.22 COMESA Primary goods 3.13 3.55 All foods 2.29 3.14 Agricultural materials 1.60 2.40 Fuels, Ores and Metals 4.03 4.03 Manufactures 0.24 0.34 of which: Leather, rubber and footwear 0.24 0.31 Wood and paper 0.05 0.11 Textiles and Clothing 1.38 2.27 SADC Primary goods 2.83 2.94 All foods 1.80 2.06 Agricultural materials 1.68 1.75 Fuels, Ores and Metals 3.77 3.76 Manufactures 0.34 0.49 of which: Leather, rubber and footwear 0.30 0.47 Wood and paper 0.60 0.73 Textiles and Clothing 0.71 0.81 SACU Primary goods 2.60 2.60 All foods 1.52 1.72 Agricultural materials 2.06 1.69 Fuels, Ores and Metals 3.45 3.37 Manufactures 0.42 0.58 of which: Leather, rubber and footwear 0.43 0.61 Wood and paper 0.96 1.03 Textiles and Clothing 0.28 0.41 EAC Primary goods 3.29 4.28 All foods 7.45 9.67 Agricultural materials 4.78 6.79 Fuels, Ores and Metals 0.18 0.20 Manufactures 0.18 0.15 of which: Leather, rubber and footwear 1.32 0.33 Wood and paper 0.14 0.17 Textiles and Clothing 0.43 0.47 LANDLOCKED Primary goods 3.29 3.81 All foods 4.29 6.93 Agricultural materials 1.58 4.23 Fuels, Ores and Metals 3.00 1.65 Manufactures 0.19 0.27 of which: Leather, rubber and footwear 0.27 0.65 Wood and paper 0.06 0.17 Textiles and Clothing 0.46 0.93 NON-AFRICAN LDCs Primary goods 1.87 1.51 All foods 1.56 1.31 Agricultural materials 1.41 1.18 Fuels, Ores and Metals 2.17 1.70 Manufactures 0.69 0.88 of which: Leather, rubber and footwear 1.52 1.70 Wood and paper 0.67 0.77 Textiles and Clothing 1.95 2.06 Source: See Appendix 1. - 25 - Table 9: Factor Intensity of Exports (%) 1990-1992 1998-2000 WORLD High manufactures 23.40 29.28 Medium manufactures 24.52 25.40 Low manufactures 6.38 5.77 Labor-intensive manufactures 14.88 13.84 Non-fuel primary commodities 15.66 12.38 Others 15.17 13.32 ESA High manufactures 3.54 4.16 Medium manufactures 1.73 4.85 Low manufactures 6.47 6.02 Labor-intensive manufactures 9.54 15.83 Non-fuel primary commodities 43.20 36.62 Others 35.52 32.53 COMESA High manufactures 2.75 2.24 Medium manufactures 0.71 1.33 Low manufactures 2.11 1.90 Labor-intensive manufactures 11.35 19.82 Non-fuel primary commodities 39.24 33.74 Others 43.84 40.97 SADC High manufactures 3.15 4.27 Medium manufactures 1.89 5.51 Low manufactures 7.77 7.10 Labor-intensive manufactures 9.16 15.07 Non-fuel primary commodities 44.77 35.70 Others 33.26 32.35 EAC High manufactures 3.52 2.95 Medium manufactures 1.11 0.99 Low manufactures 0.21 0.24 Labor-intensive manufactures 7.74 6.64 Non-fuel primary commodities 85.04 87.24 Others 2.38 1.95 SACU High manufactures 4.39 6.41 Medium manufactures 2.63 9.15 Low manufactures 10.13 10.62 Labor-intensive manufactures 8.01 12.17 Non-fuel primary commodities 45.66 38.90 Others 29.18 22.71 LANDLOCKED COUNTRIES High manufactures 0.90 1.23 Medium manufactures 0.75 1.42 Low manufactures 6.72 5.21 Labor-intensive manufactures 4.87 11.94 Non-fuel primary commodities 84.43 76.57 Others 2.33 3.63 NON-AFRICAN LDCs High manufactures 11.97 22.39 Medium manufactures 8.32 14.15 Low manufactures 4.44 5.32 Labor-intensive manufactures 23.40 23.83 Non-fuel primary commodities 23.77 16.50 Others 28.10 17.81 Source: See Appendix 1 Notes: Goods categories are those defined by UNCTAD 1996. - 26 - Dynamic products 42. This section focuses on the dynamic products in world trade and the share of the region's exports in these products17. The dynamic products are defined as the products that grow at a rate higher than the growth of world exports, which was 7 percent in the 1990-2000 period. Of the 225 products at the three-digit level, 59 were identified as dynamic products for the 1990-2000 period18. The results are presented in the first two columns of Table 10. The dynamic products constituted 47 percent of world non-fuel exports in this period. 43. The dynamic products appear in all six categories of products classified earlier according to their skill and technology intensity (para 39). Of the 59 dynamic products, nine are in the non-fuel primary commodities (category A in the third column of Table 10), ten in the resource-based and labor intensive manufactures (B), seven in the low skill and technology intensive manufactures (C), 13 in the medium skill and technology manufactures (D), 18 in the high skill and technology intensive manufactures (E), and two in the unclassified sectors. Note that as the skill and technology intensity of the product increases so does the number of dynamic products within each category. 44. The share of dynamic products in non-fuel exports in the ESA region is significantly lower, and varies substantially among countries and country groupings. For example, it is 4.7 percent in Malawi, 20.7 percent in Zambia, 40.8 percent in Mauritius, 41.1 percent in South Africa, 21.1 percent in the landlocked countries, and 40.9 percent in SACU (Table 10 and 11). 45. It is also important to note that there are dynamic products within the primary commodities and the resource-based and labor intensive manufactures, which dominate exports of the ESA region. They include: precious stones, knitted or crocheted fabrics, furniture, vegetable oil, beverages, wood manufactures, margarine, food products, glass, spices, toys, paper products, etc (Table 10). 17The methodology used to analyze the dynamic products is the same as the methodology used by Ng and Yeats (2002), UNCTAD (2002), and Mayer, Butkevicius, Kadri, and Pizarro (2004). 18They are very similar to those identified by UNCTAD for the period 1980-2000 (UNCTAD 2002). - 27 - Table 10: Dynamic Products' growth rates and shares in total non-fuel exports Dynamic products WORLD COMESA SADC EAC SACU Landlocked ) ) ) ) ) ) %( Share in total %( Share in total %( Share in total %( Share in total %( Share in total %( Share in total non-fuel non-fuel peyt non-fuel exports peyt non-fuel peyt non-fuel exports peyt non-fuel peyt SITC egory Commodity tear exports (%) tear exports (%) tear (%) tear exports (%) tear (%) tear exports (%) Rev 2 cat thwo thwo thwo thwo thwo thwo Good Product Product Product Product Product Gr 1990 2000 Gr 1990 2000 Gr 1990 2000 Gr 1990 2000 Gr 1990 2000 Gr 1990 2000 871 Optical instruments and apparatus E 18.16 0.13 0.40 9.46 0.014 0.015 1 28.77 0.008 0.041 1 19.07 0.003 0.009 1 47.80 0.001 0.018 1 7.32 0.009 0.016 1 776 Thermionic,cold & photo-cathode val E 17.25 2.35 6.08 6.82 0.055 0.117 2 17.20 0.022 0.065 1 8.56 0.104 0.283 1 24.29 0.105 0.438 1 31.08 0.001 0.138 1 771 Electric power machinery and parts D 14.83 0.38 0.72 17.28 0.015 0.031 1 26.52 0.023 0.146 1 14.74 0.029 0.049 1 14.37 0.089 0.187 1 24.60 0.001 0.014 1 764 Telecommunications equipment and parts E 14.13 1.98 4.04 9.52 0.145 0.217 1 23.50 0.056 0.377 1 4.58 0.214 0.270 2 28.55 0.038 0.403 1 0.09 0.111 0.116 2 759 Parts of and accessories suitable f E 13.50 1.69 2.87 12.69 0.037 0.051 1 19.92 0.074 0.176 1 26.45 0.028 0.129 1 20.95 0.085 0.194 1 7.29 0.024 0.028 1 541 Medicinal and pharmaceutical produc E 12.46 1.19 1.96 23.67 0.058 0.411 1 19.06 0.064 0.339 1 17.72 0.027 0.074 1 20.15 0.064 0.301 1 25.05 0.038 0.176 1 752 Automatic data processing machines E 12.24 2.65 4.09 10.59 0.081 0.097 1 14.94 0.082 0.138 1 10.10 0.168 0.168 1 16.12 0.083 0.134 1 10.70 0.035 0.114 1 773 Equipment for distributing electric D 11.76 0.49 0.74 11.77 0.028 0.229 1 35.12 0.032 0.331 1 3.64 0.008 0.007 2 20.70 0.008 0.096 1 62.64 0.001 0.704 1 783 Road motor vehicles,n.e.s. D 10.55 0.22 0.25 -1.50 0.000 0.005 2 29.47 0.002 0.057 1 42.58 0.001 0.013 1 25.52 0.003 0.024 1 14.05 0.000 0.012 1 778 Electrical machinery and apparatus, D 10.45 1.36 1.93 -0.42 0.061 0.067 2 21.83 0.104 0.380 1 3.01 0.023 0.054 2 47.75 0.183 3.244 1 3.36 0.024 0.038 2 289 Ores & concentrates of precious met A 10.39 0.05 0.07 8.98 0.154 0.149 1 17.27 0.299 1.123 1 14.51 0.020 0.004 1 17.61 0.326 1.252 1 11.36 0.188 0.074 1 846 Under garments,knitted or crocheted B 10.39 0.45 0.62 12.14 2.338 4.355 1 9.41 0.979 1.096 1 -8.35 0.242 0.084 2 13.59 0.018 0.110 1 17.58 0.143 0.797 1 515 Organo-inorganic and heterocyclic c E 10.32 0.51 0.64 6.83 0.006 0.005 2 9.31 0.085 0.100 1 -9.35 0.009 0.003 2 70.00 0.104 0.112 1 25.17 0.006 0.002 1 772 Elect.app.such as switches,relays,f D 10.23 1.28 1.74 20.85 0.021 0.085 1 14.43 0.074 0.175 1 6.99 0.033 0.057 2 35.38 0.040 0.273 1 18.11 0.005 0.040 1 681 Silver,platinum & oth.metals of the A 10.15 0.30 0.41 -12.92 0.046 0.002 2 5.23 13.486 12.195 2 -46.06 0.080 0.000 2 5.26 16.957 13.731 2 -24.18 0.109 0.001 2 553 Perfumery,cosmetics and toilet prep E 10.15 0.28 0.38 15.48 0.027 0.048 1 22.89 0.024 0.186 1 10.69 0.007 0.026 1 24.66 0.026 0.205 1 57.45 0.000 0.027 1 873 Meters and counters,n.e.s. E 9.96 0.04 0.06 12.68 0.000 0.004 1 42.25 0.001 0.016 1 -25.67 0.001 0.000 2 19.60 0.009 0.016 1 10.86 0.001 0.001 1 872 Medical instruments and appliances E 9.83 0.34 0.45 32.39 0.009 0.101 1 22.87 0.011 0.059 1 9.09 0.006 0.009 1 17.72 0.115 0.282 1 30.84 0.001 0.005 1 628 Articles of rubber,n.e.s. D 9.67 0.18 0.23 14.04 0.001 0.024 1 20.21 0.008 0.048 1 3.99 0.001 0.002 2 23.98 0.010 0.045 1 23.13 0.001 0.063 1 514 Nitrogen-function compounds E 9.51 0.63 0.78 16.97 0.007 0.017 1 20.92 0.033 0.094 1 32.50 0.002 0.005 1 21.20 0.040 0.106 1 36.70 0.005 0.020 1 791 Railway vehicles & associated equip C 9.45 0.12 0.14 -6.30 0.018 0.006 2 29.12 0.025 0.068 1 80.78 0.000 0.004 1 37.44 0.097 0.614 1 -11.60 0.046 0.009 2 713 Internal combustion piston engines D 9.29 1.13 1.28 8.41 0.034 0.060 1 20.09 0.125 0.172 1 16.10 0.008 0.024 1 21.15 0.138 0.190 1 -11.86 0.066 0.019 2 699 Manufactures of base metal,n.e.s. C 9.21 0.81 0.95 4.37 0.102 0.111 2 12.92 0.146 0.279 1 3.08 0.024 0.027 2 15.62 0.129 0.292 1 17.52 0.020 0.130 1 689 Miscell.non-ferrous base metals emp A 9.13 0.07 0.07 -3.33 2.054 0.899 2 -1.45 1.520 0.598 2 3.18 0.128 0.260 2 3.29 0.596 0.306 2 3.11 1.884 1.721 2 893 Articles of materials described in D 9.04 0.99 1.21 31.98 0.024 0.334 1 20.36 0.105 0.383 1 19.60 0.015 0.120 1 21.14 0.005 0.056 1 7.78 0.011 0.053 1 714 Engines & motors,non-electric D 8.74 0.75 0.86 14.62 0.367 0.853 1 7.41 0.187 0.332 1 -6.12 0.477 0.090 2 12.51 0.099 0.328 1 17.23 0.040 0.506 1 821 Furniture and parts thereof B 8.73 1.03 1.20 21.80 0.106 0.475 1 19.98 0.463 1.372 1 16.39 0.018 0.048 1 10.60 0.228 0.263 1 20.15 0.066 0.439 1 424 Other fixed vegetable oils,fluid or A 8.71 0.14 0.13 -9.47 0.057 0.011 2 -3.49 0.098 0.023 2 -3.73 0.011 0.006 2 -3.89 0.094 0.020 2 -25.34 0.068 0.004 2 111 Non alcoholic beverages,n.e.s. A 8.69 0.07 0.08 17.09 0.005 0.019 1 20.48 0.009 0.055 1 7.59 0.000 0.000 1 20.59 0.010 0.061 1 8.00 0.002 0.002 1 635 Wood manufactures,n.e.s. B 8.69 0.25 0.29 12.86 0.070 0.119 1 13.56 0.158 0.325 1 9.57 0.184 0.270 1 13.42 0.178 0.340 1 26.53 0.014 0.124 1 091 Margarine and shortening A 8.66 0.02 0.02 -6.27 0.000 0.008 2 3.84 0.009 0.014 2 -13.66 0.000 0.000 2 8.77 0.011 0.013 1 -7.75 0.000 0.019 2 042 Rice A 8.61 0.09 0.07 24.70 0.023 0.244 1 139.75 0.000 0.084 1 97.50 0.000 0.008 1 98.63 0.000 0.083 1 77.70 0.000 0.003 1 533 Pigments,paints,varnishes & related E 8.46 0.37 0.41 1.09 0.003 0.013 2 26.00 0.019 0.141 1 10.94 0.003 0.009 1 26.39 0.024 0.157 1 20.39 0.000 0.012 1 694 Nails,screws,nuts,bolts etc.of iron C 8.42 0.25 0.27 16.94 0.005 0.013 1 3.82 0.064 0.056 2 31.64 0.002 0.022 1 4.65 0.079 0.061 2 18.60 0.004 0.014 1 716 Rotating electric plant and parts D 8.42 0.51 0.57 8.20 0.024 0.050 1 16.25 0.023 0.089 1 -2.52 0.016 0.015 2 17.90 0.026 0.098 1 3.14 0.009 0.014 2 098 Edible products and preparations n. A 8.37 0.24 0.27 22.07 0.024 0.255 1 18.60 0.036 0.152 1 9.14 0.099 0.277 1 18.29 0.045 0.168 1 46.92 0.001 0.173 1 881 Photographic apparatus and equipmen E 8.35 0.27 0.33 -1.04 0.014 0.007 2 15.13 0.009 0.016 1 -6.72 0.055 0.013 2 7.90 0.005 0.007 1 6.56 0.003 0.008 2 582 Condensation,polycondensation & pol E 8.26 0.59 0.64 11.36 0.025 0.034 1 2.37 0.058 0.065 2 19.47 0.037 0.066 1 3.82 0.062 0.072 2 55.74 0.000 0.021 1 664 Glass B 8.23 0.32 0.36 6.13 0.020 0.037 2 3.97 0.249 0.224 2 33.76 0.000 0.001 1 4.19 0.290 0.245 2 0.86 0.051 0.036 2 667 Pearls,precious& semi-prec.stones,u B 8.22 0.95 1.13 22.23 1.649 11.788 1 22.20 4.156 13.330 1 16.71 1.268 3.214 1 21.17 4.231 10.206 1 9.99 1.022 12.021 1 812 Sanitary,plumbing,heating,lighting C 8.16 0.32 0.36 34.35 0.025 0.287 1 11.70 0.028 0.057 1 -11.42 0.027 0.005 2 17.86 0.015 0.030 1 16.22 0.003 0.010 1 679 Iron & steel castings,forgings & st C 8.05 0.06 0.06 27.33 0.001 0.009 1 15.59 0.011 0.023 1 52.54 0.000 0.001 1 14.84 0.013 0.023 1 63.85 0.000 0.019 1 075 Spices A 8.00 0.04 0.05 1.83 1.400 1.608 2 9.70 0.139 0.118 1 -0.65 1.052 0.601 2 9.20 0.034 0.049 1 37.71 0.035 0.413 1 655 Knitted or crocheted fabrics B 8.00 0.19 0.21 14.09 0.013 0.057 1 8.12 0.018 0.024 1 -7.09 0.017 0.034 2 9.47 0.016 0.020 1 8.24 0.005 0.048 1 658 Made-up articles,wholly/chiefly of B 7.93 0.27 0.30 15.03 0.375 0.908 1 9.59 0.082 0.105 1 -22.82 0.027 0.020 2 19.24 0.030 0.096 1 19.15 0.049 0.129 1 894 Baby carriages,toys,games and sport B 7.87 1.00 1.12 2.52 0.235 0.144 2 7.51 0.119 0.126 1 11.33 0.165 0.202 1 4.91 0.096 0.045 2 -1.73 0.089 0.019 2 743 Pumps & compressors,fans & blowers, D 7.85 0.67 0.72 19.09 0.150 0.165 1 40.04 0.139 2.284 1 12.62 0.005 0.012 1 40.33 0.172 2.564 1 5.23 0.013 0.021 2 874 Measuring,checking,analysing instru E 7.85 1.34 1.44 9.25 0.218 0.297 1 17.06 0.127 0.310 1 -4.77 0.380 0.150 2 35.45 0.002 0.022 1 13.41 0.106 0.210 1 884 Optical goods,n.e.s. E 7.83 0.18 0.19 0.13 0.098 0.072 2 0.10 0.053 0.031 2 8.53 0.008 0.030 1 24.08 0.030 0.333 1 -5.81 0.005 0.003 2 551 Essential oils,perfume and flavour E 7.82 0.13 0.13 2.42 0.277 0.206 2 9.44 0.033 0.036 1 -1.05 0.027 0.014 2 10.24 0.035 0.038 1 20.02 0.011 0.020 1 554 Soap,cleansing and polishing prepar E 7.74 0.20 0.21 19.95 0.001 0.071 1 26.71 0.006 0.116 1 45.74 0.002 0.042 1 25.00 0.008 0.127 1 25.81 0.002 0.018 1 899 Other miscellaneous manufactured articles F 7.55 0.42 0.46 7.15 0.105 0.166 2 12.43 0.068 0.118 1 -7.31 0.173 0.081 2 8.97 1.292 1.776 1 14.67 0.020 0.077 1 621 Materials of rubber(e.g.,pastes,pla D 7.53 0.14 0.14 -5.40 0.003 0.002 2 18.16 0.010 0.028 1 21.86 0.000 0.001 1 18.64 0.013 0.031 1 -11.54 0.007 0.003 2 895 Office and stationery supplies,n.e. F 7.46 0.16 0.16 28.91 0.004 0.010 1 19.54 0.006 0.042 1 15.24 0.002 0.006 1 7.74 0.149 0.131 1 17.19 0.009 0.003 1 741 Heating & cooling equipment and par D 7.45 0.73 0.72 20.01 0.009 0.089 1 24.73 0.028 0.210 1 12.90 0.006 0.017 1 24.58 0.035 0.234 1 20.91 0.002 0.018 1 642 Paper and paperboard,cut to size or B 7.34 0.43 0.44 24.15 0.005 0.081 1 7.92 0.076 0.168 1 21.12 0.006 0.024 1 7.33 0.094 0.182 1 28.48 0.001 0.024 1 845 Outer garments and other articles,k B 7.32 0.92 0.99 7.69 3.305 4.797 1 4.07 1.638 1.318 2 -0.61 0.018 0.037 2 23.93 0.014 0.329 1 11.23 0.209 2.332 1 696 Cutlery C 7.24 0.09 0.10 24.90 0.041 0.092 1 18.75 0.004 0.014 1 21.43 0.000 0.005 1 23.07 0.002 0.015 1 2.32 0.001 0.001 2 786 Trailers & other vehicles,not motor C 7.22 0.16 0.16 10.87 0.003 0.010 1 26.73 0.027 0.089 1 -12.50 0.008 0.001 2 10.45 0.060 0.152 1 24.75 0.000 0.016 1 Notes: Goods categories: A= Primary commodities, B= Labour-intensive and resource-based manufactures, C= Manufactures with low skill and technology intensity, D= Manufactures with medium skill and technology intensity, E= Manufactures with high skill and technology intensity & F= Unclassified products. Product types: 1=positive dynamic, 2=negative dynamic. Average world growth rate = 7%. Source: See Appendix 1. - 28 - 46. The dynamic and non-dynamic products are further divided into two types of products depending on their positive or negative contribution to increasing the region's share in world exports. This more detailed categorization helps identify the sectors which may be targeted by the region to promote exports and reverse its marginalization in world trade (Figure 2)19. In Figure 2, gRj is the growth of region R's exports of commodity j from 1990 to 2000, gWj is the growth of world exports of commodity j, and gW is the average . growth of world exports of all commodities. Figure 2: Type of Products in Regional Exports Positive: gRj>gW. Dynamic product gWj > gW . Negative: gW.> gRj Types of Products Positive: gRj>gW. Non-dynamic product gWj < gW. Negative: gW.> g Rj 47. A positive product (dynamic and non-dynamic) is a product where the region has a growth rate higher than the average growth rate of world exports. It is labeled "positive" because its export contributes to an increase in the region's share in the world market. A negative product (dynamic and non-dynamic) is a product where the region has a growth rate lower than the average growth rate of world exports. It is labeled "negative" because its exports do not increase the region's share in the world market. 19Ng and Yeats (2002). 29 Table 11: Dynamic Products' growth rates and shares in total non-fuel exports for selected countries Dynamic products KENYA MADAGASCAR MALAWI MAURITIUS MOZAMBIQUE SOUTH AFRICA SUDAN TANZANIA UGANDA ZAMBIA ZIMBABWE (%) Share in total (%) Share in total (%) Share in total (%) Share in total (%) Share in total (%) Share in total (%) Share in total (%) Share in total (%) Share in total (%) Share in total (%) Share in total SITC te non-fuel peyt te non-fuel exports peyt te non-fuel peyt te non-fuel peyt te non-fuel peyt te non-fuel exports peyt te non-fuel peyt te non-fuel exports peyt te non-fuel peyt te non-fuel exports peyt te non-fuel peyt Commodity ra ra ra ra ra ra ra ra ra ra ra Rev 2 thworG exports (%) oduct Pr Pr Pr Pr Pr Pr Pr Pr Pr Pr Pr 1990 2000 thworG (%) oduct 1990 2000 thworG exports (%) oduct 1990 2000 thworG exports (%) oduct 1990 2000 thworG exports (%) oduct 1990 2000 thworG (%) oduct 1990 2000 thworG exports (%) oduct 1990 2000 thworG (%) oduct 1990 2000 thworG exports (%) oduct 1990 2000 thworG (%) oduct 1990 2000 thworG exports (%) oduct 1990 2000 871 Optical instruments and apparatus 22.29 0.004 0.015 1 36.96 0.000 0.002 1 -17.12 0.000 0.000 2 6.51 0.06 0.04 2 55.88 0.000 0.001 1 37.45 0.004 0.049 1 33.85 0.000 0.003 1 -11.43 0.000 0.002 2 -9.37 0.000 0.000 2 -2.15 0.000 0.000 2 6.61 0.022 0.039 2 776 Thermionic,cold & photo-cathode val 8.12 0.170 0.504 1 34.50 0.006 0.019 1 37.93 0.008 0.007 1 -13.42 0.10 0.02 2 24.54 0.002 0.171 1 22.71 0.021 0.058 1 -6.87 0.003 0.007 2 57.49 0.000 0.000 1 37.98 0.000 0.001 1 123.18 0.000 0.000 1 -11.94 0.001 0.002 2 771 Electric power machinery and parts 3.57 0.024 0.024 2 10.83 0.001 0.011 1 -35.65 0.002 0.000 2 -3.33 0.01 0.01 2 76.47 0.000 0.010 1 28.38 0.030 0.189 1 21.85 0.000 0.057 1 18.06 0.056 0.099 1 86.18 0.000 0.048 1 2.10 0.000 0.005 2 11.48 0.002 0.003 1 764 Telecommunications equipment and parts 5.47 0.319 0.426 2 20.96 0.007 0.022 1 -4.52 0.196 0.033 2 16.50 0.01 0.07 1 28.09 0.035 0.185 1 28.49 0.046 0.468 1 -2.16 0.048 0.051 2 7.99 0.019 0.045 1 1.61 0.103 0.115 2 0.70 0.011 0.063 2 -6.69 0.216 0.093 2 759 Parts of and accessories suitable f 26.22 0.044 0.221 1 42.90 0.000 0.003 1 -5.65 0.022 0.005 2 -11.99 0.03 0.01 2 10.94 0.003 0.018 1 20.92 0.102 0.226 1 -1.32 0.011 0.004 2 36.09 0.001 0.012 1 11.85 0.005 0.008 1 -2.58 0.011 0.010 2 4.81 0.046 0.051 2 541 Medicinal and pharmaceutical produc 14.87 0.037 0.071 1 -11.62 0.010 0.001 2 134.82 0.000 0.085 1 -25.42 0.08 0.01 2 26.84 0.001 0.009 1 20.00 0.077 0.344 1 18.60 0.028 0.072 1 120.80 0.000 0.055 1 40.52 0.034 0.121 1 32.70 0.002 0.061 1 28.83 0.094 0.291 1 752 Automatic data processing machines 8.33 0.270 0.215 1 11.32 0.007 0.004 1 18.84 0.005 0.040 1 6.21 0.11 0.09 2 38.12 0.001 0.108 1 16.06 0.100 0.155 1 11.02 0.021 0.253 1 19.24 0.010 0.106 1 43.57 0.004 0.109 1 8.42 0.008 0.632 1 2.19 0.081 0.036 2 773 Equipment for distributing electric 0.11 0.013 0.011 2 5.90 0.000 0.000 2 8.15 0.000 0.000 1 18.50 0.00 0.00 1 11.38 0.002 0.037 1 35.35 0.048 0.319 1 -8.62 0.025 0.078 2 36.13 0.000 0.001 1 23.32 0.004 0.002 1 130.19 0.000 0.797 1 36.50 0.001 0.297 1 783 Road motor vehicles,n.e.s. -20.95 0.002 0.000 2 11.16 0.000 0.000 1 -34.85 0.000 0.000 2 -3.55 0.00 0.00 2 113.43 0.000 0.051 1 49.35 0.003 0.071 1 -33.43 0.001 0.000 2 136.00 0.000 0.039 1 112.53 0.000 0.012 1 67.32 0.000 0.027 1 10.58 0.001 0.020 1 778 Electrical machinery and apparatus, 7.15 0.037 0.069 2 -10.74 0.020 0.006 2 -5.98 0.007 0.005 2 -13.07 0.22 0.05 2 -0.61 0.023 0.083 2 24.04 0.126 0.491 1 3.07 0.001 0.028 2 28.81 0.002 0.027 1 30.16 0.000 0.049 1 -2.27 0.002 0.007 2 2.03 0.055 0.043 2 289 Ores & concentrates of precious met -22.05 0.005 0.000 2 0.00 0.000 0.000 2 3.68 0.000 0.000 2 0.71 0.08 0.05 2 -4.17 0.000 0.000 2 17.61 0.392 1.471 1 0.00 0.000 0.000 2 -3.13 0.036 0.000 2 -6.36 0.058 0.029 2 5.43 0.025 0.106 2 7.97 0.480 0.163 1 846 Under garments,knitted or crocheted -21.92 0.058 0.020 2 71.27 0.057 4.228 1 36.26 0.116 1.971 1 8.47 11.86 18.72 1 42.46 0.177 0.460 1 13.87 0.134 0.219 1 34.37 0.000 0.012 1 -3.14 0.804 0.252 2 -47.80 0.013 0.000 2 -35.87 0.004 0.001 2 -5.19 0.356 0.158 2 515 Organo-inorganic and heterocyclic c -22.65 0.014 0.002 2 20.20 0.000 0.000 1 0.00 0.000 0.000 2 -8.21 0.00 0.00 2 -29.87 0.066 0.007 2 9.49 0.125 0.132 1 9.35 0.000 0.000 1 13.89 0.000 0.000 1 77.82 0.000 0.015 1 13.17 0.000 0.000 1 5.50 0.015 0.000 2 772 Elect.app.such as switches,relays,f 1.38 0.050 0.057 2 71.53 0.014 0.314 1 24.97 0.000 0.001 1 13.26 0.02 0.10 1 34.49 0.003 0.033 1 14.34 0.107 0.219 1 11.23 0.005 0.039 1 25.16 0.011 0.007 1 64.66 0.000 0.157 1 26.81 0.001 0.105 1 2.17 0.012 0.018 2 681 Silver,platinum & oth.metals of the 10.04 0.010 0.000 1 10.33 0.000 0.000 1 -21.41 0.001 0.000 2 67.65 0.00 0.00 1 0.00 0.000 0.000 2 5.26 20.405 16.131 2 35.63 0.000 0.000 1 -65.03 0.282 0.000 2 21.29 0.017 0.000 1 -27.26 0.251 0.005 2 -25.56 0.027 0.000 2 553 Perfumery,cosmetics and toilet prep 6.77 0.012 0.035 2 19.29 0.001 0.002 1 -18.87 0.002 0.000 2 -11.93 0.04 0.01 2 34.09 0.000 0.002 1 24.63 0.032 0.239 1 36.07 0.000 0.019 1 55.84 0.000 0.018 1 106.72 0.000 0.008 1 87.02 0.000 0.009 1 86.52 0.000 0.052 1 873 Meters and counters,n.e.s. -21.38 0.001 0.000 2 -3.29 0.000 0.000 2 22.66 0.000 0.002 1 -7.74 0.00 0.00 2 -12.53 0.019 0.001 2 47.67 0.001 0.020 1 -14.77 0.001 0.000 2 -16.04 0.000 0.001 2 -13.72 0.005 0.000 2 15.99 0.000 0.000 1 6.28 0.000 0.000 2 872 Medical instruments and appliances 8.73 0.010 0.014 1 -11.55 0.000 0.000 2 5.48 0.001 0.003 2 -5.50 0.04 0.02 2 10.32 0.000 0.001 1 21.17 0.013 0.048 1 20.77 0.002 0.035 1 58.52 0.000 0.003 1 36.33 0.000 0.003 1 36.77 0.000 0.007 1 35.61 0.002 0.008 1 628 Articles of rubber,n.e.s. 2.72 0.001 0.004 2 -18.38 0.004 0.000 2 14.85 0.001 0.000 1 22.14 0.00 0.00 1 46.75 0.000 0.002 1 23.95 0.012 0.053 1 39.40 0.000 0.003 1 -13.08 0.002 0.000 2 15.62 0.000 0.000 1 31.57 0.001 0.003 1 20.01 0.002 0.165 1 514 Nitrogen-function compounds 64.19 0.000 0.007 1 11.90 0.000 0.000 1 -12.60 0.000 0.000 2 17.79 0.01 0.00 1 -7.17 0.000 0.000 2 21.05 0.048 0.121 1 25.49 0.000 0.000 1 -7.70 0.007 0.001 2 40.16 0.000 0.004 1 17.43 0.000 0.000 1 9.63 0.013 0.000 1 791 Railway vehicles & associated equip 17.75 0.000 0.000 1 2.87 0.000 0.000 2 -5.84 0.000 0.000 2 6.53 0.00 0.00 2 23.35 0.000 0.001 1 34.42 0.024 0.086 1 43.12 0.000 0.006 1 67.41 0.000 0.014 1 0.00 0.000 0.000 2 42.99 0.000 0.011 1 -11.60 0.126 0.022 2 713 Internal combustion piston engines 25.60 0.006 0.037 1 6.44 0.008 0.003 2 -8.26 0.001 0.001 2 22.61 0.00 0.01 1 43.58 0.091 0.014 1 21.13 0.166 0.223 1 22.45 0.002 0.013 1 3.03 0.017 0.008 2 29.63 0.000 0.007 1 -8.01 0.005 0.005 2 -14.24 0.176 0.041 2 699 Manufactures of base metal,n.e.s. 2.94 0.038 0.038 2 46.32 0.001 0.018 1 22.95 0.001 0.002 1 -3.95 0.06 0.05 2 13.83 0.102 0.065 1 15.50 0.155 0.335 1 6.45 0.021 0.004 2 20.76 0.002 0.008 1 13.75 0.000 0.024 1 9.86 0.018 0.257 1 26.79 0.031 0.196 1 689 Miscell.non-ferrous base metals emp 13.12 0.002 0.004 1 0.00 0.000 0.000 2 -27.87 0.000 0.000 2 34.73 0.00 0.00 1 -33.45 0.006 0.000 2 3.29 0.718 0.359 2 -5.53 0.037 0.019 2 -2.24 0.500 0.398 2 112.80 0.000 0.960 1 2.69 4.816 14.052 2 13.97 0.005 0.015 1 893 Articles of materials described in 10.96 0.022 0.049 1 14.75 0.026 0.021 1 37.75 0.001 0.019 1 19.12 0.03 0.09 1 38.31 0.004 0.015 1 20.57 0.153 0.475 1 9.68 0.001 0.015 1 71.70 0.005 0.304 1 34.68 0.000 0.029 1 42.65 0.001 0.016 1 5.77 0.026 0.111 2 714 Engines & motors,non-electric 2.80 0.278 0.158 2 -29.94 0.041 0.001 2 -45.13 0.030 0.000 2 19.48 0.00 0.23 1 120.95 0.000 0.359 1 12.39 0.119 0.377 1 -7.77 0.783 0.773 2 -29.72 1.206 0.004 2 -12.79 0.007 0.001 2 -22.60 0.021 0.847 2 6.32 0.067 0.110 2 821 Furniture and parts thereof 17.49 0.024 0.062 1 20.46 0.101 0.096 1 12.29 0.042 0.032 1 14.94 0.02 0.06 1 10.67 0.006 0.047 1 20.04 0.680 1.734 1 -33.79 0.006 0.000 2 13.82 0.013 0.042 1 6.60 0.003 0.005 2 27.26 0.002 0.007 1 19.35 0.167 0.968 1 424 Other fixed vegetable oils,fluid or -7.59 0.017 0.010 2 -21.69 0.359 0.021 2 -12.53 0.000 0.000 2 -38.58 0.00 0.00 2 55.06 0.143 0.267 1 -3.90 0.113 0.023 2 0.00 0.000 0.000 2 40.44 0.000 0.000 1 15.35 0.000 0.000 1 -11.88 0.014 0.000 2 -38.12 0.172 0.010 2 111 Non alcoholic beverages,n.e.s. -11.06 0.001 0.000 2 0.71 0.000 0.000 2 -2.89 0.000 0.000 2 95.28 0.00 0.01 1 47.39 0.000 0.000 1 20.42 0.012 0.070 1 38.12 0.000 0.001 1 25.46 0.000 0.001 1 21.52 0.000 0.000 1 0.22 0.000 0.000 2 14.81 0.007 0.003 1 635 Wood manufactures,n.e.s. 8.93 0.274 0.397 1 28.07 0.089 0.225 1 5.55 0.048 0.061 2 -8.76 0.14 0.04 2 51.70 0.004 0.310 1 13.40 0.214 0.398 1 -0.31 0.001 0.005 2 13.70 0.065 0.159 1 48.85 0.000 0.006 1 10.77 0.005 0.036 1 33.28 0.016 0.297 1 091 Margarine and shortening -13.66 0.000 0.000 2 0.00 0.000 0.000 2 0.63 0.000 0.000 2 -14.73 0.00 0.00 2 11.33 0.000 0.000 1 8.76 0.013 0.015 1 0.00 0.000 0.000 2 0.00 0.000 0.000 2 0.00 0.000 0.000 2 0.00 0.000 0.000 2 -7.75 0.000 0.053 2 042 Rice -20.19 0.000 0.000 2 124.08 0.000 0.020 1 29.73 0.000 0.000 1 21.98 0.00 0.00 1 212.10 0.000 1.074 1 92.32 0.000 0.097 1 24.03 0.000 0.000 1 133.69 0.000 0.011 1 74.12 0.000 0.035 1 0.00 0.000 0.000 2 3.34 0.000 0.000 2 533 Pigments,paints,varnishes & related 13.18 0.003 0.014 1 17.35 0.000 0.001 1 -6.67 0.000 0.000 2 14.53 0.00 0.00 1 4.31 0.000 0.000 2 26.39 0.028 0.184 1 22.64 0.000 0.033 1 8.41 0.004 0.005 1 17.03 0.000 0.000 1 5.90 0.000 0.003 2 42.92 0.000 0.027 1 694 Nails,screws,nuts,bolts etc.of iron 31.75 0.004 0.037 1 4.43 0.000 0.000 2 7.35 0.000 0.000 1 35.59 0.00 0.00 1 -34.33 0.003 0.009 2 4.58 0.096 0.071 2 20.32 0.000 0.000 1 51.52 0.000 0.004 1 30.58 0.000 0.001 1 59.24 0.000 0.003 1 15.06 0.012 0.023 1 716 Rotating electric plant and parts -4.37 0.019 0.023 2 26.16 0.002 0.003 1 -12.64 0.006 0.001 2 11.64 0.00 0.00 1 36.15 0.003 0.085 1 17.83 0.031 0.113 1 21.57 0.015 0.080 1 6.22 0.012 0.007 2 10.47 0.007 0.001 1 16.57 0.001 0.044 1 -3.16 0.018 0.009 2 098 Edible products and preparations n. 9.08 0.163 0.487 1 1.97 0.004 0.002 2 90.34 0.000 0.015 1 150.18 0.00 0.01 1 11.16 0.005 0.004 1 17.54 0.054 0.171 1 82.65 0.000 0.020 1 38.93 0.000 0.003 1 -3.17 0.000 0.016 2 84.21 0.000 0.011 1 32.60 0.002 0.043 1 881 Photographic apparatus and equipmen -14.47 0.081 0.009 2 -9.59 0.000 0.000 2 -4.82 0.000 0.000 2 -12.57 0.00 0.00 2 6.80 0.001 0.003 2 19.60 0.011 0.019 1 -36.99 0.005 0.000 2 10.06 0.020 0.028 1 71.90 0.000 0.001 1 20.94 0.000 0.008 1 -4.66 0.008 0.014 2 582 Condensation,polycondensation & pol 19.92 0.060 0.117 1 -9.44 0.000 0.000 2 -1.84 0.000 0.000 2 -38.33 0.13 0.00 2 0.02 0.009 0.002 2 3.68 0.075 0.082 2 15.83 0.001 0.009 1 7.91 0.000 0.000 1 18.87 0.000 0.002 1 2.84 0.000 0.000 2 66.64 0.000 0.019 1 664 Glass 55.02 0.000 0.001 1 25.32 0.001 0.000 1 11.29 0.000 0.000 1 38.57 0.00 0.03 1 -35.74 0.362 0.001 2 4.18 0.349 0.288 2 -21.60 0.000 0.000 2 5.94 0.000 0.000 2 11.18 0.000 0.000 1 70.84 0.000 0.000 1 0.50 0.141 0.095 2 667 Pearls,precious& semi-prec.stones,u -3.07 1.021 0.533 2 -1.12 1.517 0.543 2 11.66 0.016 0.031 1 25.53 0.32 2.74 1 -17.80 0.082 0.335 2 20.01 5.092 9.713 1 2.85 0.000 0.000 2 29.71 2.535 10.054 1 84.23 0.000 0.006 1 -5.36 2.221 3.172 2 -9.23 0.397 0.191 2 812 Sanitary,plumbing,heating,lighting 12.48 0.003 0.007 1 11.58 0.003 0.020 1 -16.37 0.000 0.000 2 -0.71 0.01 0.00 2 15.97 0.001 0.023 1 12.51 0.038 0.074 1 -13.17 0.003 0.001 2 -37.65 0.097 0.002 2 8.74 0.001 0.000 1 13.80 0.000 0.010 1 16.92 0.007 0.022 1 679 Iron & steel castings,forgings & st 52.18 0.000 0.001 1 79.58 0.000 0.000 1 -7.57 0.000 0.000 2 37.41 0.00 0.00 1 -30.01 0.007 0.002 2 14.82 0.016 0.027 1 24.45 0.000 0.000 1 11.35 0.000 0.000 1 -1.97 0.000 0.000 2 24.38 0.000 0.002 1 62.69 0.001 0.049 1 075 Spices 21.31 0.011 0.056 1 0.44 27.448 18.108 2 11.88 0.249 0.345 1 6.15 0.04 0.05 2 7.67 0.002 0.009 1 9.20 0.041 0.058 1 13.12 0.007 0.349 1 -5.89 4.088 1.514 2 41.14 0.024 0.884 1 29.64 0.011 0.229 1 58.12 0.013 0.778 1 655 Knitted or crocheted fabrics 0.22 0.020 0.060 2 72.13 0.000 0.004 1 123.98 0.000 0.057 1 2.86 0.05 0.01 2 9.17 0.000 0.001 1 9.45 0.019 0.024 1 13.84 0.000 0.000 1 -55.77 0.019 0.000 2 10.50 0.000 0.000 1 -51.89 0.014 0.000 2 47.66 0.000 0.113 1 658 Made-up articles,wholly/chiefly of -20.90 0.018 0.017 2 13.62 0.231 0.210 1 137.05 0.001 0.782 1 -16.46 0.66 0.07 2 26.77 0.004 0.034 1 19.23 0.036 0.112 1 53.63 0.124 0.154 1 -30.24 0.063 0.033 2 10.87 0.001 0.003 1 -5.98 0.000 0.008 2 -0.89 0.135 0.154 2 894 Baby carriages,toys,games and sport 10.64 0.268 0.301 1 20.11 0.235 0.431 1 -22.17 0.063 0.006 2 -3.25 0.97 0.48 2 4.03 0.001 0.002 2 17.15 0.051 0.131 1 14.67 0.000 0.006 1 20.05 0.004 0.112 1 18.32 0.000 0.000 1 13.94 0.000 0.002 1 0.14 0.220 0.028 2 743 Pumps & compressors,fans & blowers, -0.01 0.008 0.002 2 70.18 0.000 0.012 1 16.60 0.014 0.004 1 7.88 0.01 0.01 1 23.15 0.001 0.177 1 40.32 0.207 3.010 1 10.31 0.000 0.017 1 24.34 0.001 0.038 1 20.68 0.000 0.002 1 -21.66 0.019 0.002 2 18.26 0.011 0.028 1 874 Measuring,checking,analysing instru -8.69 0.518 0.209 2 1.51 0.161 0.030 2 -1.46 0.021 0.009 2 34.99 0.04 0.86 1 35.73 0.030 0.466 1 17.71 0.138 0.331 1 -10.67 0.096 0.136 2 5.30 0.220 0.045 2 30.39 0.056 0.132 1 -3.73 0.016 0.028 2 -9.79 0.256 0.064 2 884 Optical goods,n.e.s. 8.86 0.014 0.050 1 208.10 0.000 0.051 1 -28.72 0.000 0.000 2 -1.30 0.66 0.50 2 8.05 0.001 0.006 1 9.92 0.008 0.010 1 4.99 0.000 0.000 2 13.35 0.000 0.005 1 32.50 0.000 0.003 1 2.82 0.000 0.000 2 -14.58 0.013 0.004 2 551 Essential oils,perfume and flavour 10.17 0.001 0.005 1 8.41 1.541 0.916 1 -27.24 0.001 0.000 2 -2.34 0.02 0.00 2 6.72 0.000 0.000 2 10.07 0.042 0.043 1 60.21 0.000 0.002 1 -0.78 0.106 0.039 2 11.28 0.000 0.001 1 1.82 0.000 0.000 2 14.55 0.029 0.026 1 554 Soap,cleansing and polishing prepar 36.58 0.003 0.041 1 -23.44 0.003 0.002 2 3.56 0.000 0.000 2 145.54 0.00 0.04 1 47.45 0.000 0.013 1 24.99 0.009 0.149 1 94.62 0.000 0.029 1 74.39 0.000 0.001 1 90.69 0.000 0.128 1 49.53 0.000 0.006 1 19.55 0.006 0.020 1 899 Other miscellaneous manufactured articles -11.74 0.276 0.108 2 29.48 0.134 0.807 1 -4.56 0.003 0.005 2 1.37 0.31 0.29 2 37.69 0.000 0.019 1 15.47 0.065 0.124 1 -8.17 0.000 0.002 2 21.78 0.017 0.063 1 12.63 0.007 0.018 1 10.80 0.002 0.011 1 9.16 0.047 0.039 1 621 Materials of rubber(e.g.,pastes,pla 40.58 0.000 0.001 1 -28.29 0.004 0.003 2 -14.77 0.000 0.000 2 8.40 0.00 0.00 1 34.08 0.000 0.010 1 18.61 0.016 0.036 1 34.70 0.000 0.004 1 1.35 0.000 0.000 2 -1.27 0.002 0.000 2 24.36 0.000 0.000 1 40.85 0.000 0.003 1 895 Office and stationery supplies,n.e. 14.95 0.004 0.010 1 2.37 0.003 0.017 2 2.04 0.000 0.000 2 54.88 0.00 0.01 1 29.37 0.000 0.001 1 20.13 0.006 0.055 1 63.83 0.000 0.000 1 67.67 0.000 0.002 1 21.55 0.000 0.000 1 13.43 0.000 0.000 1 13.07 0.023 0.002 1 741 Heating & cooling equipment and par 0.03 0.010 0.026 2 19.95 0.001 0.002 1 59.16 0.000 0.012 1 13.67 0.00 0.01 1 143.21 0.002 0.127 1 24.54 0.042 0.273 1 50.12 0.000 0.025 1 62.40 0.000 0.009 1 83.59 0.000 0.001 1 7.47 0.003 0.002 1 10.46 0.004 0.005 1 642 Paper and paperboard,cut to size or 17.58 0.010 0.030 1 22.87 0.013 0.051 1 35.43 0.003 0.034 1 31.93 0.01 0.08 1 -21.79 0.016 0.016 2 7.32 0.113 0.213 1 0.56 0.000 0.003 2 79.62 0.000 0.024 1 18.82 0.000 0.002 1 47.12 0.000 0.000 1 29.02 0.002 0.050 1 845 Outer garments and other articles,k -1.89 0.030 0.059 2 44.08 0.971 19.513 1 -5.39 1.236 1.163 2 0.57 20.20 15.93 2 -23.25 0.878 0.004 2 14.30 0.222 0.428 1 43.86 0.000 0.001 1 33.48 0.000 0.011 1 14.78 0.000 0.004 1 -19.58 0.004 0.000 2 0.11 0.235 0.168 2 696 Cutlery 21.57 0.000 0.010 1 -3.36 0.001 0.001 2 -10.20 0.000 0.000 2 -24.14 0.00 0.00 2 75.55 0.000 0.017 1 23.04 0.003 0.018 1 3.39 0.000 0.000 2 24.76 0.000 0.000 1 0.00 0.000 0.000 2 -12.26 0.000 0.000 2 -0.76 0.002 0.001 2 786 Trailers & other vehicles,not motor -18.25 0.013 0.000 2 6.11 0.006 0.000 2 3.37 0.000 0.000 2 38.00 0.00 0.00 1 68.32 0.002 0.087 1 27.52 0.040 0.113 1 6.47 0.000 0.000 2 -0.93 0.001 0.000 2 9.33 0.000 0.001 1 61.57 0.000 0.076 1 25.30 0.001 0.016 1 Source: See Appendix 1. Notes: Goods categories: A= Primary commodities, B= Labour-intensive and resource-based manufactures, C= Manufactures with low skill and technology intensity, D= Manufactures with medium skill and technology intensity, E= Manufactures with high skill and , B= Labour-intensive and resource-based manufac Product types: 1=positive dynamic, 2=negative dynamic. Average world growth rate = 7%. 30 48. Note that a positive non-dynamic product may be the result of a surge in the world demand or in the regional demand for that product that is exported largely by the region, or it can also emerge when previously competing countries leave a vacuum in the market in the process of export upgrading that is filled by the region. 49. Because the export of positive dynamic and positive non-dynamic products contribute to an increase in the regions' share in the world market, we will focus particularly on these products in assessing structural change in exports. Positive dynamic products, which are labeled `1' in the product type column, are shown in Table 10 for country groupings and in Table 11 for selected countries. The positive non-dynamic products in COMESA and SADC exports are listed in Tables 12 and 13, respectively. 50. In the case of COMESA, of the 59 dynamic products, 38 are positive dynamic and 19 are negative dynamic; and of the 162 non-dynamic products, 89 are positive non-dynamic products. Of the positive dynamic products exported by COMESA, four are primary commodities, eight are resource-based and labor-intensive manufactures, five are manufactures with low skill and technology intensity, ten are manufactures with medium skill and technology intensity, and 12 are manufactures with high skill and technology intensity (Table 10). The product with highest share in total exports in the positive dynamic category is "pearls, precious and semi-precious stones" (11.8 percent) followed by "outer garments and other articles" (4.8 percent) and "under garments" (4.4 percent). 51. In the case of SADC, of the 59 dynamic products, 50 are positive dynamic and 9 are negative dynamic; and of the 162 non-dynamic products, 99 are positive non-dynamic products. Of the positive dynamic products exported by SADC, five are primary commodities, eight are resource-based and labor-intensive manufactures, six are manufactures with low skill and technology intensity, 13 are manufactures with medium skill and technology intensity, and 16 are manufactures with high skill and technology intensity (Table 10). The product with highest share in total exports in the positive dynamic category is "pearls, precious and semi-precious stones, unworked or worked" (13.3 percent), followed by "silver, platinum and other metals" (12.2 percent) and "pumps and compressors, fans and blowers" (2.3 percent). 52. Note that in world exports as well as exports from COMESA and SADC, the fastest growing products are those products with higher skill and technological intensity, a result consistent with the findings of UNCTAD (2002) and Mayer, Butkevicius, Kadri, and Pizarro (204). - 31 - Table 12. COMESA's positive non-dynamic exports Share in COMESA's SITC Description of COMESA World non-fuel exports (%) Rev 2 commodity growth rate (%) growth rate (%) 1990 2000 524 Radio-active and associated materia 64.49 1.18 0.000 0.456 677 Iron/steel wire,wheth/not coated,bu 49.30 4.50 0.000 0.031 012 Meat & edible offals,salted,in brin 45.81 0.35 0.000 0.002 264 Jute & other textile bast fibres,ne 42.73 -1.37 0.000 0.000 584 Regenerated cellulose;cellulose nit 41.55 2.82 0.000 0.006 725 Paper & pulp mill mach.,mach for ma 41.44 1.48 0.000 0.017 662 Clay construct.materials & refracto 41.38 4.29 0.002 0.054 522 Inorganic chemical elements,oxides 39.14 5.16 0.006 0.469 641 Paper and paperboard 38.99 4.96 0.007 0.118 245 Fuel wood (excluding wood waste) an 29.70 5.29 0.001 0.017 659 Floor coverings,etc. 29.69 0.71 0.086 0.814 223 Oils seeds and oleaginous fruit, wh 28.86 5.13 0.016 0.057 613 Furskins,tanned/dressed,pieces/cutt 28.46 0.73 0.001 0.002 793 Ships,boats and floating structures 28.04 1.56 0.197 0.124 625 Rubber tyres,tyre cases,etc.for whe 27.52 5.91 0.013 0.066 727 Food processing machines and parts 26.10 1.27 0.002 0.010 037 Fish,crustaceans and molluscs,prepa 25.24 5.24 0.239 1.657 656 Tulle,lace,embroidery,ribbons,& oth 23.53 6.08 0.003 0.015 583 Polymerization and copolymerization 22.95 6.87 0.019 0.121 585 Other artificial resins and plastic 22.64 3.45 0.001 0.001 273 Stone,sand and gravel 21.56 4.41 0.164 0.746 282 Waste and scrap metal of iron or st 21.24 3.83 0.043 0.139 411 Animal oils and fats 21.21 3.52 0.004 0.008 112 Alcoholic beverages 21.09 5.33 0.012 0.040 665 Glassware 19.89 4.45 0.014 0.113 941 Animals,live,n.e.s.,incl. zoo-anima 19.72 7.08 0.049 0.224 025 Eggs and yolks,fresh,dried or other 19.47 0.75 0.000 0.007 774 Electric apparatus for medical purp 18.63 6.74 0.006 0.024 266 Synthetic fibres suitable for spinn 18.49 3.14 0.002 0.006 251 Pulp and waste paper 18.49 3.27 0.005 0.211 431 Animal & vegetable oils and fats,pr 18.48 6.19 0.006 0.016 721 Agricultural machinery and parts 18.45 4.77 0.003 0.015 653 Fabrics,woven,of man-made fibres 18.41 2.27 0.047 0.252 212 Furskins,raw (includ.astrakhan,cara 18.10 2.41 0.001 0.019 666 Pottery 18.03 2.60 0.013 0.056 222 Oil seeds and oleaginous fruit,whol 16.79 5.26 0.587 1.152 676 Rails and railway track constructio 16.51 3.29 0.000 0.001 047 Other cereal meals and flours 16.45 2.58 0.002 0.000 742 Pumps for liquids,liq.elevators and 16.11 6.68 0.015 0.029 744 Mechanical handling equip.and parts 15.49 6.32 0.039 0.087 892 Printed matter 15.33 4.49 0.066 0.091 749 Non-electric parts and accessories 15.29 6.98 0.019 0.071 691 Structures & parts of struc.;iron,s 15.03 5.26 0.013 0.056 562 Fertilizers,manufactured 14.03 3.17 0.123 0.745 897 Jewellery,goldsmiths and other art. 13.96 5.55 0.271 0.491 233 Synth.rubb.lat.;synth.rubb.& reclai 13.75 5.40 0.006 0.006 896 Works of art,collectors pieces & an 13.59 0.75 0.086 0.210 842 Outer garments,men's,of textile fab 13.33 5.98 1.383 3.144 036 Crustaceans and molluscs,fresh,chil 13.02 4.25 0.563 1.438 728 Mach.& equipment specialized for pa 12.81 7.09 0.039 0.068 513 Carboxylic acids,& their anhydrides 12.44 6.34 0.007 0.005 722 Tractors fitted or not with power t 12.30 4.29 0.002 0.002 711 Steam & other vapour generating boi 12.12 4.82 0.000 0.001 011 Meat,edible meat offals, fresh, chi 11.99 2.00 0.089 0.627 697 Household equipment of base metal,n 11.93 6.63 0.034 0.106 041 Wheat (including spelt) and meslin, 11.85 1.99 0.114 0.001 692 Metal containers for storage and tr 11.57 4.12 0.008 0.012 736 Mach.tools for working metal or met 11.48 5.22 0.038 0.046 663 Mineral manufactures,n.e.s 11.38 6.30 0.018 0.042 657 Special textile fabrics and related 11.18 5.77 0.025 0.053 287 Ores and concentrates of base metal 11.16 1.83 0.641 1.343 843 Outer garments,women's,of textile f 11.10 4.70 1.559 2.756 572 Explosives and pyrotechnic products 10.70 3.06 0.001 0.003 898 Musical instruments,parts and acces 10.66 5.97 0.014 0.022 057 Fruit & nuts(not includ. oil nuts), 10.61 3.32 0.694 1.269 784 Parts & accessories of 722--,781--, 10.49 7.08 0.021 0.046 035 Fish,dried,salted or in brine ; smo 10.48 2.01 0.055 0.146 693 Wire products and fencing grills 10.27 3.41 0.015 0.050 023 Butter 10.19 1.24 0.011 0.000 056 Vegetab.,roots & tubers,prepared/pr 10.10 2.70 0.216 0.335 763 Gramophones,dictating,sound recorde 10.04 6.46 0.007 0.008 781 Passenger motor cars,for transport 9.73 6.92 0.021 0.051 633 Cork manufactures 9.69 5.76 0.000 0.002 762 Radio-broadcast receivers 9.68 3.95 0.008 0.006 723 Civil engineering & contractors pla 9.66 4.78 0.047 0.076 844 Under garments of textile fabrics 9.63 5.31 1.147 1.717 043 Barley,unmilled 9.58 2.44 0.000 0.000 048 Cereal prepar. & preps. of flour of 9.38 6.59 0.039 0.054 044 Maize (corn),unmilled 9.34 2.35 0.373 0.039 745 Other non-electrical mach.tools,app 9.27 4.95 0.008 0.021 726 Printing & bookbinding mach.and par 9.04 3.47 0.012 0.011 054 Vegetab.,fresh,chilled,frozen/pres. 8.97 3.47 1.826 2.182 511 Hydrocarbons nes,& their halogen.& 8.07 6.75 0.009 0.015 122 Tobacco manufactured 8.01 5.11 0.014 0.022 661 Lime,cement,and fabricated construc 7.88 4.26 0.126 0.259 288 Non-ferrous base metal waste and sc 7.69 5.39 0.303 0.535 695 Tools for use in hand or in machine 7.58 6.06 0.027 0.035 724 Textile & leather machinery and par 7.27 -0.95 0.017 0.051 292 Crude vegetable materials, n.e.s. 7.26 3.36 2.362 3.110 Source: Appendix 1. Notes: Positive non-dynamic commodities are those where the region's export growth is higher than the growth rate of total world exports. Growth rate of total world exports = 7%. Those products in bold have a share in COMESA's non-fuel exports larger than 0.01%. - 32 - Table 13. SADC's positive non-dynamic exports Share in SADC's SITC Description of SADC World non-fuel exports (%) Rev 2 commodity growth rate (%) growth rate (%) 1990 2000 264 Jute & other textile bast fibres,ne 113.40 -1.37 0.000 0.000 633 Cork manufactures 59.62 5.76 0.000 0.005 043 Barley,unmilled 59.48 2.44 0.000 0.000 762 Radio-broadcast receivers 53.51 3.95 0.007 0.068 511 Hydrocarbons nes,& their halogen.& 49.96 6.75 0.032 0.421 012 Meat & edible offals,salted,in brin 48.79 0.35 0.000 0.001 781 Passenger motor cars,for transport 46.29 6.92 0.150 2.893 951 Armoured fighting vehicles,arms of 45.18 -2.66 0.000 0.085 266 Synthetic fibres suitable for spinn 43.91 3.14 0.006 0.052 572 Explosives and pyrotechnic products 43.74 3.06 0.002 0.040 782 Motor vehicles for transport of goo 43.37 6.27 0.040 0.462 041 Wheat (including spelt) and meslin, 42.29 1.99 0.129 0.011 122 Tobacco manufactured 38.41 5.11 0.004 0.088 612 Manufactures of leather/of composit 35.81 6.05 0.007 0.048 001 Live animals chiefly for food 34.19 0.66 0.002 0.041 112 Alcoholic beverages 33.97 5.33 0.102 0.930 282 Waste and scrap metal of iron or st 32.22 3.83 0.030 0.322 761 Television receivers 32.11 4.30 0.004 0.138 737 Metal working machinery and parts 30.79 5.47 0.010 0.070 233 Synth.rubb.lat.;synth.rubb.& reclai 29.83 5.40 0.016 0.046 625 Rubber tyres,tyre cases,etc.for whe 29.68 5.91 0.048 0.372 727 Food processing machines and parts 29.28 1.27 0.006 0.030 793 Ships,boats and floating structures 29.01 1.56 0.170 0.560 684 Aluminium 28.31 6.65 0.815 2.882 722 Tractors fitted or not with power t 27.14 4.29 0.003 0.014 024 Cheese and curd 26.95 3.11 0.000 0.015 598 Miscellaneous chemical products,n.e 26.77 7.12 0.087 0.409 584 Regenerated cellulose;cellulose nit 26.59 2.82 0.001 0.005 882 Photographic & cinematographic supp 24.32 3.43 0.003 0.016 046 Meal and flour of wheat and flour o 24.30 0.68 0.006 0.033 591 Disinfectants,insecticides,fungicid 23.48 5.78 0.039 0.206 892 Printed matter 23.06 4.49 0.032 0.306 749 Non-electric parts and accessories 22.47 6.98 0.085 0.350 785 Motorcycles,motor scooters,invalid 21.94 6.05 0.004 0.021 663 Mineral manufactures,n.e.s 21.42 6.30 0.023 0.113 562 Fertilizers,manufactured 21.27 3.17 0.112 0.260 742 Pumps for liquids,liq.elevators and 21.08 6.68 0.025 0.104 723 Civil engineering & contractors pla 20.96 4.78 0.038 0.164 269 Old clothing and other old textile 20.44 5.76 0.002 0.008 692 Metal containers for storage and tr 20.19 4.12 0.016 0.100 513 Carboxylic acids,& their anhydrides 20.16 6.34 0.017 0.036 411 Animal oils and fats 20.15 3.52 0.004 0.009 784 Parts & accessories of 722--,781--, 19.62 7.08 0.364 1.051 666 Pottery 19.33 2.60 0.003 0.017 512 Alcohols,phenols,phenol-alcohols,& 19.06 7.04 0.175 0.309 656 Tulle,lace,embroidery,ribbons,& oth 18.97 6.08 0.015 0.047 037 Fish,crustaceans and molluscs,prepa 18.90 5.24 0.186 0.579 431 Animal & vegetable oils and fats,pr 18.31 6.19 0.008 0.035 744 Mechanical handling equip.and parts 17.98 6.32 0.090 0.240 775 Household type,elect.& non-electric 17.53 5.73 0.015 0.083 246 Pulpwood (including chips and wood 17.28 3.31 0.261 0.662 745 Other non-electrical mach.tools,app 17.13 4.95 0.046 0.183 763 Gramophones,dictating,sound recorde 17.12 6.46 0.007 0.019 034 Fish,fresh (live or dead),chilled o 16.29 3.86 1.082 2.154 661 Lime,cement,and fabricated construc 16.16 4.26 0.056 0.264 736 Mach.tools for working metal or met 16.02 5.22 0.054 0.070 774 Electric apparatus for medical purp 15.90 6.74 0.007 0.026 265 Vegetable textile fibres and waste 15.83 4.07 0.018 0.021 223 Oils seeds and oleaginous fruit, wh 15.20 5.13 0.015 0.022 022 Milk and cream 14.94 4.29 0.015 0.157 659 Floor coverings,etc. 14.64 0.71 0.037 0.076 851 Footwear 14.56 5.13 0.022 0.137 751 Office machines 14.54 1.91 0.005 0.020 592 Starches,inulin & wheat gluten;albu 14.50 6.10 0.019 0.042 941 Animals,live,n.e.s.,incl. zoo-anima 14.48 7.08 0.032 0.069 585 Other artificial resins and plastic 13.88 3.45 0.001 0.000 523 Other inorganic chemicals 13.85 4.93 0.217 0.390 693 Wire products and fencing grills 13.37 3.41 0.055 0.130 691 Structures & parts of struc.;iron,s 12.97 5.26 0.083 0.244 531 Synth.org.dyestuffs,etc.nat.indigo 12.82 2.83 0.008 0.014 676 Rails and railway track constructio 12.08 3.29 0.003 0.015 665 Glassware 12.04 4.45 0.012 0.028 728 Mach.& equipment specialized for pa 11.64 7.09 0.300 0.343 897 Jewellery,goldsmiths and other art. 11.54 5.55 0.242 0.292 695 Tools for use in hand or in machine 11.18 6.06 0.112 0.160 516 Other organic chemicals 10.47 6.68 0.231 0.319 277 Natural abrasives,n.e.s (incl.indus 10.36 1.58 0.175 0.035 726 Printing & bookbinding mach.and par 10.35 3.47 0.017 0.026 842 Outer garments,men's,of textile fab 9.96 5.98 0.739 0.962 697 Household equipment of base metal,n 9.72 6.63 0.043 0.100 653 Fabrics,woven,of man-made fibres 9.32 2.27 0.037 0.068 292 Crude vegetable materials, n.e.s. 9.25 3.36 0.484 0.533 831 Travel goods,handbags,brief-cases,p 9.24 7.05 0.043 0.041 898 Musical instruments,parts and acces 9.13 5.97 0.024 0.044 583 Polymerization and copolymerization 9.08 6.87 0.174 0.253 724 Textile & leather machinery and par 8.96 -0.95 0.030 0.048 522 Inorganic chemical elements,oxides 8.90 5.16 0.957 0.790 677 Iron/steel wire,wheth/not coated,bu 8.77 4.50 0.125 0.162 045 Cereals,unmilled ( no wheat,rice,ba 8.60 0.26 0.012 0.075 274 Sulphur and unroasted iron pyrites 8.50 -4.25 0.000 0.000 048 Cereal prepar. & preps. of flour of 8.46 6.59 0.034 0.091 654 Textil.fabrics,woven,oth.than cotto 8.41 0.42 0.010 0.014 036 Crustaceans and molluscs,fresh,chil 8.35 4.25 0.683 0.827 222 Oil seeds and oleaginous fruit,whol 8.26 5.26 0.168 0.151 035 Fish,dried,salted or in brine ; smo 8.09 2.01 0.039 0.054 672 Ingots and other primary forms,of i 7.68 5.27 0.798 1.486 245 Fuel wood (excluding wood waste) an 7.61 5.29 0.054 0.060 883 Cinematograph film,exposed-develope 7.57 0.30 0.004 0.007 725 Paper & pulp mill mach.,mach for ma 7.17 1.48 0.007 0.009 Source: Appendix 1. Notes: Positive non-dynamic commodities are those where the region's export growth is higher than the growth rate of total world exports. Growth rate of total world exports = 7%. Those products in bold have a share in SADC's non-fuel exports larger than 0.01%. - 33 - 53. Note that growth rates are sensitive to the initial value of exports ­ a small increase in exports of a product which was hardly exported in 1990 would show a very high growth rate. To avoid this anomaly in calculation of the share of positive-dynamic and positive- non dynamic products, we consider those products with an initial share in total exports larger than 0.1 percent in 1990. These two types of products increase region's share in the world market. The export of positive dynamic products that satisfy this condition constituted 24 percent of total exports in COMESA and 22 percent in SADC in 2000. The exports of positive non-dynamic products satisfying this condition constituted 23 percent of total exports in COMESA and 19 percent in SADC. 5. REGION'S TRADE PROSPECTS 54. This section explores the region's likely trade trajectory in the long-run by reviewing the ongoing debate on Africa's comparative advantage and diversification potential20. 55. Africa's likely trade trajectory in the longer run. While it is generally recognized that the region's concentration of exports on primary products is caused largely by its factor endowment (a combination of abundant natural resources and low level of education), there is no agreement on where the region's comparative advantage lies, and what direction the composition of exports would follow in future to support faster growth and development. 56. Bloom and Sachs (1998), who argue that Africa's agriculture suffers from tropical climate, diseases and pests, claim that its true comparative advantage is in manufactures and services. Collier (1998a, 1998b) maintains that with better policies and infrastructure, the share of manufactured exports in most of Africa could match those of Asian countries (about 70 percent of total exports) because Africa's low growth has reduced wages in the region below those in Asia. 57. Wood and Mayer (2001) dispute these conclusions. They argue that: (a) the handicaps of agriculture do not give the region a comparative advantage in manufacturing because technologies are available for Africa which can overcome most of these obstacles (technological green revolution and its accompanying intensification of the use of high- yielding variety seeds, water, and fertilizer); (b) tropical climates have not prevented the achievement of far higher levels of agricultural output and exports in much of Latin America and in Southeast Asia, to which Africa has lost world market shares in tropical products; (c) manufacturing exports could be realized only in Africa's coastal regions, since transport costs in the interior are too high; (d) it is not clear that wages in African manufacturing are currently lower; (e) comparative advantage depends not on the price of any single factor, such as labor, but relative factor prices; and, (f) low wages tend to make a country more competitive in all sectors, not only in manufacturing. 58. Their own view is that the structure of Africa's exports may just reflect the region's comparative advantage determined largely by the region's combination of abundant natural resources and low level of education. Poor policies and infrastructure are a 20The following debate is related to Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) as a whole. Because the economic characteristics of the ESA region is not significantly different from those of SSA, the analysis would also apply to the ESA region. - 34 - second-order influence, rather than the main cause. They argue that Africa's relative position in factor endowment has not changed much over the past 30 years, and will probably not change radically over the next 30 years, either. The implication of this is that while, in some African countries, the share of manufactures in exports could be raised by improving infrastructure and policies, for most of Africa, sectors based on natural resources will continue to dominate exports, following a development path more like that of land-abundant Americas than of land-scarce Asia. They claim that the long- term model for African development is not Japan but the United States, and that Africa's medium-term trajectory should take it in the direction not of East Asian NICs, but of Latin America. 59. Wood (2002) shows that, in terms of land/labor ratios, Africa as a region is much more similar to the Americas than it is to Europe and Asia. He then argues that the higher land/labor ratio in Africa will cause it to have distinctive sectoral structure at a high level of development. The sectoral structure of an increasingly prosperous Africa will be more like those of Americas. Because it is land-abundant, as is America, Africa will always have a larger primary sector and a smaller manufacturing sector than the land-scarce regions of Asia and Europe. 60. He contrasts the differing evolution of sectoral structures in land-abundant and land- scarce countries in the process of economic development. The initial result of capital accumulation in a poor land-abundant country will be mainly a shift from unprocessed to processed primary products (which are more capital intensive), whereas in a poor land- scarce country at this stage the shift will be mainly from unprocessed primary products to labor-intensive manufactures (which are also more capital intensive, but less land- intensive). As capital accumulation proceeds further, both sorts of countries will shift towards the production of even more capital-intensive manufactures. However, land- abundant countries will remain net exporters of primary products for longer than land- scarce countries (and perhaps for ever)21. 61. What are the policy implications of this development trajectory of Africa? Faster accumulation of capital is vital in the development of every country regardless of their factor endowment. This will require political and macroeconomic stability, better institutions, improvements in governance, and increased spending on health, education and infrastructure. This policy agenda is similar in many respects to those which are needed to raise living standards in low income land-scarce countries. However, the policy priorities in the natural resource-abundant countries in the region will differ in some respects from those of a natural resource-scarce developing countries. The former countries will need to focus more on applying technology and knowledge to nature. It is widely acknowledged that Africa has not yet benefited from a technological green revolution and its accompanying intensification of water and fertilizer use, and policies and institutions in African agriculture are less favorable than in other regions. Therefore, in the natural resource-abundant countries of the region, policy priority will need to be placed on application of new technology and strengthening government support for regional research and training in the natural resource-based sectors. 21Wood (2002:7). - 35 - 62. Wood and Mayer (2001) also argue that slow growth in world demand for primary products is unlikely to constrain the expansion of Africa's exports for three reasons. First, Africa's current share of the world market for all but a few products is so small that growth of its exports could greatly exceed growth of world demand without much disruption of other producers. Second, demand for many agricultural products (meat, seafood, vegetable oils, fruits and vegetables, etc) has grown rapidly, and will continue to do so, even though demand for traditional agricultural products (tea, coffee, etc) has grown slowly ­ note that in our analysis a large number of primary products are identified as dynamic products. Third, the rapid growth of natural-resource-poor Asian countries is likely to keep the demand for primary products high. REFERENCES Bloom, D. and J. Sachs, "Geography, Demography, and Economic Growth in Africa", Brookings Papers in Economic Activity, 1998, No. 2. Coe, D. and A. W. Hoffmaister. "North-South Trade: Is Africa Unusual? IMF Working Paper 98/94, 1999. Washington, DC: IMF. Collier, P. "Globalization: Implications for Africa" in Iqbal and Khan (eds), Trade Reform and Regional Integration in Africa, 1998. Washington, DC: IMF. Collier, P. Comments, Brookings Papers in Economic Activity, 1998, No. 2. IMF, World Economic Outlook, May 2001. Washington, DC: IMF. Mayer, J., A. Butkevicius, A. Kadri, and J. Pizarro. "Dynamic Products in World Exports", Review of World Economics, v. 139, No. 4, 2004. McCarty, C. "Regional Integration in Sub-Saharan Africa: Past, Present, and Future", in Oyejide, A. et al, Regional Integration and Trade Liberalization in Sub-Saharan Africa, v. 1-4. London: Macmillan, 1999. Oyejide, A. et al, Regional Integration and Trade Liberalization in Sub-Saharan Africa, v. 1-4. London: Macmillan, 1999. Ng, F. and A. Yeats, "What Can Africa Expects From Its Traditional Exports?", Africa Region Working Paper Series: No. 26, 2002. Washington, DC: World Bank. Rodrik, D. "Trade Policy and Economic Performance in Sub-Saharan Africa", 1997. Boston: Harvard University. Rodrik, D. The New Global Economy and Developing Countries: Making Openness Work, 1999. Washington DC: Overseas Development Council. - 36 - Sachs, J. "Tropical Underdevelopment", Paper presented to the Economic History Association, 2000. Subramanian, A. and N. Tamirisa, "Africa's Trade Revisited", IMF Working Paper 01/33, 2001. Washington, DC: IMF. UNCTAD, Trade and Development Report, 2002. New York: United Nations. Wood, A. and J. Mayer, "Africa's Export Structure in a Comparative Perspective", Cambridge Journal of Economics, 2001, v. 25, No. 3. Wood, A. "Could Africa be Like America?", World Bank, Annual Bank Conference on Development Economics, April 2002. World Bank, Trade Blocks. New York: Oxford University Press, 2000a. World Bank, Can Africa Claim the 21st Century? Washington, DC, 2000b. - 37 - ANNEXES - 38 - Annex 1: Data sources and methodology (A) Text Figures and Tables Title Source Notes Export prices are export unit values. The annual average growth of export prices is the Annual least squares growth rate for the period 1990-2001. The annual average growth of a average African country's export prices relative to those of the world is calculated by subtracting the growth of Development world annual average export price growth to the country's annual average export price Figure 1 export prices Indicators 2002 growth. Due to missing data in Comoros and Congo D.R., the period is shortened in relative to and IMF Direction their case to 1990-99 and 1990-97, respectively. Data for SADC & COMESA export world export of Trade Statistics unit values are calculated based on the average export unit values of their member prices, 1990- 2002 countries weighted by their share in the region's total trade. The value for COMESA 2001 was calculated excluding Comoros, Congo DR, Djibouti, Eritrea and Sudan because they do not report data for the entire 1990-2001 period. Trade data for SADC and COMESA countries and for Rest of Africa is that reported by partner countries in the defined world. World is defined as = all countries in IMF database except Reunion, Aruba, Guadeloupe, Guiana, Martinique and Reunion, which do not report data. Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia and Swaziland are included in this world definition. Since these four countries do not report data, a country's trade with these 4 countries cannot be estimated with mirror data so it is estimated with data reported by the own country. South Africa, which is also included in the world definition, does not report data from 1990 to 1997. Therefore, a country's trade with South Africa over that period is estimated with data reported by the own country rather than by South Africa. Trade data for EAC and SACU is calculated adding the estimated values of its members. Rest of Africa is constituted by those non-COMESA and non- SADC African countries in the IMF Direction of Trade database, except Reunion Trade data: IMF (which does not report data continuously). Trade data for Developing Countries Direction of Trade includes the 152 countries considered by the WDI database as lower-middle-income Statistics. economies, low-income economies and upper-middle income economies. Missing values for one or two years are replaced by estimates based on exponential growth rates. Unlike other regions, trade data for USA, EU and East & Pacific is reported by the own region rather than by mirror data due to their better quality data. The World trade values are calculated based on the values of all countries in the IMF Direction of Trade Statistics database except Aruba, Guadeloupe, Guiana, Martinique, and Reunion (which do not report data continuously) plus the trade values for South Africa during 1990-97 Table 1 Main trends in trade reported by her partner countries (South Africa does not report data during that period). Eritrea gained independence from Ethiopia in 1993. Export, import and GDP data cannot be estimated before 1994, 1993 and 1992, respectively. The 1994 Eritrean export to GDP ratio and the 1994 share in world exports replaces the 1990 value. Ethiopia data before 1993 includes Eritrea. _______________ ______________________________________________________________________ The countries included in the country groupings are the same as those in trade data. GDP data for COMESA and SADC is calculated adding the values of its members. Since GDP data for Eritrea for 1990 & 1991, Congo and Lesotho for 1999, 2000 & 2001, Namibia for 2000, and Uganda for 2001 are not available, they are replaced for the value of the previous year. GDP data for EAC and SACU is calculated adding the estimated values of its members. The GDP value for Developing Countries does not include Liberia, Libya, and Somalia, which do not report data. The world GDP value is based on the values of the same countries as in the trade calculation except American Samoa, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Cuba, Faeroe Islands, Greenland, Guam, Iraq, Kyrgyz GDP data: World Republic, Liberia, Libya, Mongolia, Myanmar, Netherlands Antilles, Korea, Dem. Rep., Bank GDF & WDI Somalia, and Yugoslavia, which do not report data for more than two years. Missing 2002. values for less than two continuous years are replaced using the exponential growth rate. Missing values for 1990 were replaced by 1991 values. GDP value for Congo D.R. in 2000 is based on 1998 value. GDP value for Eritrea in 1990 is based on 1992 value. GDP value for Seychelles in 2001 is based on value for 2000. - 39 - Regions' undertrading or overtrading is evaluated running cross-country regressions over all the countries in the world for which data was available: 162 countries in the 1996-2000 period and 148 in the 1990-1994 period. The regressions relate observed shares of exports in GDP to levels of national income per capita in PPP terms and two different measures that capture a country's size: population and land area. The dependent variable is the log of the average export to GDP ratio over the respective period. The independent variables are expressed in logs and measured with a lag to Regression minimize the potential problem of reverse causality: 1989 for the 1990-1994 period and results ­ Is 1995 for the 1996-2000 period. In each regression dummy variables are included for Table 2 the region World Bank GDF different regions to check whether the estimated coefficient is negative and statistically under- & WDI 2002. significant, as it would be if the region were an underperformer, or positive and trading? statistically significant, as it would be if the region were an overperformer. The regressions were submitted to tests of functional form (RESET test), heterocedasticity (Brausch-Pagan test) and normality (Shapiro-Wilk test). Since the regressions did not satisfy the normality test, dummies are included for the largest outliers till the normality test was satisfied so that the estimated coefficients have the required statistical properties. In all the regressions French Polynesia and New Caledonia behave as outliers, as they trade less than what would be predicted by their income per capita and their size. Seychelles, Congo Dem. Rep. and Ethiopia are not included in the sample for lack of data. There is no data for Djibouti, Eritrea and Sudan for 1990-1994. Export unit values: Africa Region Breakdown Sima, except for of the world price, which difference comes from IMF between International The cumulative loss as percent of export revenue was calculated as the ratio between Table 3 actual and Financial the change in export revenue and the actual cumulative exports for the period. See potential Statistics. Annex 1c) Decomposition of Export Revenue Loss for an explanation of the export Exports: Direction methodology used. revenue of Trade Statistics, (1990-2001) IMF. GDP data: World Bank GDF & WDI 2002. Share of Table 4 imports financed by Direction of Trade The trade data was estimated as in Table 1. export Statistics, IMF. revenue Destination Table 5 of exports Direction of Trade The trade data was estimated based on mirror data reported by the partner countries, as and sources Statistics, IMF. in Table 1. of imports World Integrated Table 6 Composition Trade Solution Data reported by the Rest of the World, as defined by Ng and Yeats (2002). Categories of exports (COMTRADE constructed based on 3 digit commodities, SITC Revision 2. data). Herfindahl World Integrated Table 7 index of Trade Solution Data reported by the Rest of the World, as defined by Ng and Yeats (2002). Categories concentration (COMTRADE constructed based on 3 digit commodities, SITC Revision 2. of exports data). Revealed World Integrated Table 8 comparative Trade Solution Data reported by the Rest of the World, as defined by Ng and Yeats (2002). Categories advantage (COMTRADE constructed based on 3 digit commodities, SITC Revision 2. data). Data reported by the Rest of the World, as defined by Ng and Yeats (2002). Goods World Integrated categories are those defined by UNCTAD 1996. Period value based on arithmetic Factor Trade Solution average. SACU data from 1990 to 1999 is calculated based on trade with South Africa Table 9 intensity of (COMTRADE reported by Rest of the World, which is in fact trade with South Africa and the BLNS exports data). countries. SACU data for 2000 is calculated by aggregating trade with Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, Swaziland, and South Africa reported by Rest of the World (the South Africa 2000 data reported by the Rest of the World only includes trade with South Africa not with the BLNS countries). Dynamic World Integrated Products' Trade Solution Table 10 growth rates (COMTRADE 3 digit commodities, SITC Revision 2. Growth rates are calculated as least squares and shares in data). growth rates. total non-fuel exports - 40 - Dynamic Products' growth rates World Integrated Table 11 and shares in Trade Solution 3 digit commodities, SITC Revision 2. Growth rates are calculated as least squares total non-fuel (COMTRADE growth rates. exports for data). selected countries World Integrated COMESA's Trade Solution Table 12 positive non- (COMTRADE 3 digit commodities, SITC Revision 2. Growth rates are calculated as least squares dynamic data). growth rates. exports SADC's World Integrated Table 13 positive non- Trade Solution 3 digit commodities, SITC Revision 2. Growth rates are calculated as least squares dynamic (COMTRADE growth rates. exports data). (b) Annex Tables Title Source Notes Undertrading and Annex 3 overtrading World Bank GDF & WDI. Congo Dem. Rep., Ethiopia, Namibia, and Seychelles are not included of different in the regressions for lack of data. regions Each country coefficient is obtained running a regression of the logged Undertrading export to GDP ratio over the logged gdp per capita, logged land, a and Latin American dummy, an East Asian and Pacific dummy, and Annex 4 overtrading World Bank GDF & WDI. dummies for three outliers: French Polynesia, New Caledonia and of ESA Japan. Congo Dem. Rep., Ethiopia, Namibia, and Seychelles are not countries included in the regressions for lack of data. A positive coefficient indicates the country is overtrading and a negative coefficient indicates the country is undertrading. Destination The data for the country is that reported by the partner countries or regions. However, since Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia and Swaziland Annex 5 of Exports and Sources IMF Direction of Trade Statistics. do not report data, their data is that reported by the country. South of Imports Africa does not report data from 1990 to 1997, so the data is that reported by the country. ESA Data reported by the Rest of the World, as defined by Ng and Yeats Annex 6 countries' World Integrated Trade Solution export (COMTRADE data). (2002). Categories constructed based on 3 digit commodities, SITC composition. Revision 2. Revealed Data reported by the Rest of the World, as defined by Ng and Yeats Annex 7 Comparative World Integrated Trade Solution (2002). Categories constructed based on 3 digit commodities, SITC Advantage (COMTRADE data). Revision 2. Factor Data reported by the Rest of the World, as defined by Ng and Yeats Annex 8 Intensity of World Integrated Trade Solution (2002). Goods categories are those defined by UNCTAD 1996. Period Exports (COMTRADE data). value based on arithmetic average. - 41 - c) Methodology of Decomposition of Export Revenue Loss Country i's share in world exports in year t can be expressed as xti Xti = Pti GDPt i GDPt i [1] Xt W PtW xtW GDPt W GDPt W Where X are nominal exports, x are real exports and GDP is real GDP. Taking logs on the lhs and the rhs of the identity above and differentiating, proportional changes in a country's share in world exports can be expressed as a function of the country's relative change in prices, its relative change in openness and its relative change in GDP: xi Xi Pi GDPt i XW PW = + GDPi + [2] xt W GDPt W GDPt W where ^ denotes proportional changes. Hence the changes in export revenue over the period caused by changes in world market share can be decomposed into changes in export revenue caused by price differentials, changes in export revenue caused by changes in the country's relative openness, and changes in revenue caused by the country's differential GDP growth. Note that the sum of the three effects in Table 3 do not add up to 100 because of two possible reasons. First, in estimating the counterfactual export revenue, we used the average values of all variables for 1990-92 rather than the actual for 1990. This is likely to affect the estimated results. Second, we are reporting only the partial effects of the three possible causes of marginalization, overlooking their joint effect. - 42 - Annex 2. Groupings of countries Countries ESA COMESA SADC EAC SACU Landlocked Angola x x x Botswana x x x x Burundi x x x Comoros x x Congo, D.R. x x x Djibouti x x Egypt x x Eritrea x x Ethiopia x x x Kenya x x x Lesotho x x x x Madagascar x x Malawi x x x x Mauritius x x x Mozambique x x Namibia x x x x Rwanda x x x Seychelles x x x South Africa x x x Sudan x x Swaziland x x x x x Tanzania x x x Uganda x x x x Zambia x x x x Zimbabwe x x x x 43 Annex 3. Undertrading and overtrading of different regions, 1990-1994 & 1996-2000 Dependent variable: log of average export to GDP ratio period 1990 to 1994 period 1996 to 2000 Independent variables (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (1 Dummy Sub-Saharan Africa -0.06 -0.21 * [0.13] [0.12] Dummy ESA -0.03 -0.21 * [0.13] [0.12] Dummy COMESA -0.45 ** 0 -0.54 *** -0.17 [0.19] [0.15] [0.16] [0.13] Dummy SADC -0.11 0.27 * -0.28 0.15 [0.22] [0.15] [0.21] [0.15] Dummy OVERLAP 1.01 *** 1.14 *** [0.34] [0.31] Dummy EAC -0.01 -0. [0.29] [0. Dummy SACU 0.11 0.0 [0.25] [0. Dummy LANDLOCK -0.23 [0.17] Dummy East Asia & Pacific 0.29 ** 0.29 ** 0.29 ** 0.3 ** 0.33 *** 0.37 *** 0.28 ** 0.32 *** 0.32 ** 0.31 *** 0.33 *** 0.36 *** 0.4 [0.13] [0.13] [0.12] [0.12] [0.12] [0.12] [0.12] [0.12] [0.12] [0.12] [0.12] [0.12] [0. Dummy Latin America -0.14 -0.14 -0.13 -0.13 -0.09 -0.12 -0.15 -0.28 *** -0.28 *** -0.27 *** -0.26 ** -0.22 ** -0.2 [0.11] [0.11] [0.10] [0.11] [0.11] [0.10] [0.11] [0.10] [0.10] [0.10] [0.10] [0.10] [0. ln GDP per capita PPP1 0.21 *** 0.22 *** 0.2 *** 0.22 *** 0.23 *** 0.23 *** 0.2 *** 0.16 *** 0.16 *** 0.14 *** 0.16 *** 0.18 *** 0. [0.04] [0.04] [0.04] [0.04] [0.04] [0.04] [0.04] [0.04] [0.04] [0.04] [0.04] [0.04] [0. ln land -0.02 -0.02 -0.03 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.03 -0.02 -0.02 -0.0 [0.03] [0.03] [0.03] [0.03] [0.03] [0.03] [0.03] [0.03] [0.03] [0.02] [0.03] [0.03] [0. ln population1 -0.15 *** -0.15 *** -0.13 *** -0.15 *** -0.14 *** -0.14 *** -0.15 *** -0.14 *** -0.14 *** -0.12 *** -0.14 *** -0.13 *** -0. [0.03] [0.03] [0.03] [0.03] [0.03] [0.03] [0.03] [0.03] [0.03] [0.03] [0.03] [0.03] [0. Dummy French Polynesia -3.78 *** -3.79 *** -3.72 *** -3.79 *** -3.79 *** -3.84 *** -3.77 *** -3.15 *** -3.15 *** -3.10 *** -3.16 *** -3.17 *** -3.2 [0.52] [0.52] [0.50] [0.52] [0.51] [0.51] [0.51] [0.50] [0.50] [0.48] [0.50] [0.50] [0. Dummy New Caledonia -1.87 *** -1.87 *** -1.79 *** -1.88 *** -1.87 *** -1.92 *** -1.85 *** -2.00 *** -2.00 *** -1.93 *** -2.00 *** -2.01 *** -2.0 [0.52] [0.52] [0.50] [0.52] [0.52] [0.51] [0.52] [0.50] [0.50] [0.48] [0.50] [0.50] [0. Dummy Japan -1.39 *** -1.5 [0.51] [0. Constant 4.24 *** 4.21 *** 4.28 *** 4.17 *** 4.01 *** 3.95 *** 4.34 *** 4.72 *** 4.73 *** 4.81 *** 4.66 *** 4.41 *** 4.2 [0.50] [0.50] [0.48] [0.50] [0.48] [0.48] [0.49] [0.48] [0.48] [0.46] [0.48] [0.46] [0. Adjusted-R-Squared 0.46 0.46 0.50 0.46 0.47 0.48 0.46 0.41 0.41 0.46 0.41 0.41 0.4 Sample size 148 148 148 148 148 148 148 162 162 162 162 162 16 Diagnostic tests satisfied? Functional form Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Heteroscedasticity Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Normality Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Source: GDF & WDI 2002. Notes: * significant at 10%, ** significant at 5%, *** significant at 1%. Logs are natural logarithms. Y=yes, N=No. Standard errors in brackets. OVERLAP: countries that are in SADC and COMESA; namely: Angola, Congo DR, Malawi, Mauritius, Namibia, Seychelles, Swaziland, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. 1 year is 1995 for the 1996-2000 regressions and 1989 for the 1990-1994 regressions. See Annex 1 for more details. 44 Annex 4. Undertrading and overtrading of ESA countries, 1990-1994 & 1996-2000 1990-1994 1996-2000 Angola 0.93 * 1.17 ** [0.48] [0.46] Burundi -0.83 * -1.12 ** [0.49] [0.47] Botswana 0.30 -0.04 [0.49] [0.48] Djibouti 0.07 [0.47] Egypt 0.33 -0.26 [0.49] [0.47] Eritrea -0.24 [0.47] Kenya 0.67 0.30 [0.49] [0.47] Lesotho -0.36 -0.26 [0.49] [0.47] Madagascar -0.02 0.05 [0.49] [0.47] Mozambique -0.27 -0.52 [0.49] [0.47] Mauritius 0.35 0.22 [0.49] [0.47] Malawi 0.34 0.18 [0.49] [0.47] Rwanda -1.32 *** -1.37 *** [0.48] [0.46] Sudan -0.87 * [0.47] Swaziland 0.64 0.49 [0.49] [0.47] Tanzania 0.08 -0.14 [0.49] [0.47] Uganda -0.79 -0.67 [0.49] [0.47] South Africa -0.37 -0.11 [0.35] [0.33] Zambia 0.63 0.15 [0.49] [0.47] Zimbabwe 0.19 0.36 [0.49] [0.47] Comoros -0.73 -0.70 [0.49] [0.47] Namibia 0.30 0.20 [0.50] [0.48] Source: GDF & WDI 2002. Notes: * significant at 10%, ** significant at 5%, *** significant at 1%. Standard errors in brackets. See Annex 1 for more details. 45 Annex 5: Destination of Exports and Sources of Imports (%) Exports to Imports from Exports to Imports from Exports to Imports from Exports to Imports from Exports to Imports from 1990-92 1999-01 1990-92 1999-01 1990-92 1999-01 1990-92 1999-01 1990-92 1999-01 1990-92 1999-01 1990-92 1999-01 1990-92 1999-01 1990-92 1999-01 1990-92 1999-01 Angola Djibouti Lesotho Namibia Swaziland COMESA Intra-Region 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.2 COMESA Intra-Region 29.7 4.2 8.3 10.8 COMESA Intra-Region 1.2 0.7 2.7 1.4 COMESA Intra-Region 0.4 1.0 3.1 3.8 COMESA Intra-Region 6.3 7.1 1.8 1.2 SADC Intra-Region 0.0 0.3 2.4 11.9 SADC Intra-Region 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.9 SADC Intra-Region 1.3 0.7 2.7 1.6 SADC Intra-Region 0.6 1.5 3.1 3.8 SADC Intra-Region 9.6 15.8 1.8 3.9 Rest of Africa 0.4 0.2 1.1 2.3 Rest of Africa 29.0 48.9 0.5 1.2 Rest of Africa 1.1 1.9 0.7 0.4 Rest of Africa 1.9 1.3 0.0 0.1 Rest of Africa 1.0 0.5 0.0 1.0 USA 56.5 48.6 9.0 10.8 USA 0.0 0.2 2.5 3.3 USA 52.7 79.3 5.0 0.8 USA 7.9 5.5 21.5 39.0 USA 7.7 16.5 8.3 11.8 EU 33.8 20.2 70.9 43.5 EU 5.5 19.9 42.0 32.7 EU 35.6 9.6 59.2 10.5 EU 51.5 81.2 68.5 36.2 EU 41.1 39.1 8.3 11.8 East Asia & Pacific 0.8 22.3 7.4 19.1 East Asia & Pacific 1.1 0.9 26.1 23.6 East Asia & Pacific 1.1 0.4 19.2 51.9 East Asia & Pacific 0.7 2.3 1.6 9.6 East Asia & Pacific 22.9 18.6 23.9 56.0 South Asia 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 South Asia 0.1 0.5 3.2 2.4 South Asia 2.3 0.0 5.3 1.2 South Asia 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.8 South Asia 0.8 5.7 22.7 3.6 Botswana Egypt Madagascar Rwanda Tanzania COMESA Intra-Region 19.8 6.9 28.7 16.6 COMESA Intra-Region 1.2 1.0 0.5 0.9 COMESA Intra-Region 9.4 3.7 2.6 8.9 COMESA Intra-Region 1.0 3.7 18.3 34.0 COMESA Intra-Region 11.4 18.1 11.4 18.1 SADC Intra-Region 20.0 7.0 28.9 16.6 SADC Intra-Region 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.3 SADC Intra-Region 9.7 3.8 6.2 13.8 SADC Intra-Region 0.3 7.4 13.6 10.9 SADC Intra-Region 2.7 8.3 2.7 8.3 Rest of Africa 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.0 Rest of Africa 2.8 3.0 0.6 0.6 Rest of Africa 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.3 Rest of Africa 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 Rest of Africa 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 USA 4.4 3.2 11.2 12.6 USA 6.9 14.3 21.8 18.2 USA 12.3 18.2 2.6 1.6 USA 10.2 7.4 0.9 13.6 USA 3.1 4.4 3.1 4.4 EU 33.6 79.3 70.9 43.5 EU 57.1 50.1 43.0 38.9 EU 55.3 59.5 61.4 40.5 EU 76.8 52.9 49.9 28.2 EU 47.8 35.6 47.8 35.6 East Asia & Pacific 7.0 0.3 12.2 13.8 East Asia & Pacific 5.1 9.8 13.7 18.3 East Asia & Pacific 14.3 14.2 17.9 25.1 East Asia & Pacific 3.4 15.1 11.3 6.9 East Asia & Pacific 16.6 16.7 16.6 16.7 South Asia 0.1 0.0 2.2 1.3 South Asia 4.3 4.2 2.2 1.8 South Asia 0.6 0.1 0.7 2.3 South Asia 6.6 9.5 2.0 3.9 South Asia 10.9 17.8 10.9 17.8 Burundi Eritrea Malawi Seychelles Uganda COMESA Intra-Region 5.2 10.1 10.4 9.6 COMESA Intra-Region 8.3 3.0 COMESA Intra-Region 3.7 5.6 11.6 21.7 COMESA Intra-Region 1.3 0.4 4.3 2.6 COMESA Intra-Region 3.3 1.3 23.9 44.0 SADC Intra-Region 2.7 0.8 8.5 13.3 SADC Intra-Region 3.0 0.6 SADC Intra-Region 11.4 14.8 51.2 70.1 SADC Intra-Region 1.2 2.1 18.7 10.3 SADC Intra-Region 0.6 2.2 2.1 9.6 Rest of Africa 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.0 Rest of Africa 0.1 0.1 Rest of Africa 0.8 0.6 0.0 0.0 Rest of Africa 0.4 0.6 0.0 0.3 Rest of Africa 1.4 3.0 0.6 0.1 USA 7.5 9.2 2.5 2.5 USA 1.8 9.2 USA 14.8 15.8 4.9 2.5 USA 0.8 6.0 1.3 13.9 USA 8.5 6.7 4.2 3.5 EU 79.2 56.9 63.5 51.4 EU 64.7 58.9 EU 46.1 37.0 27.5 12.5 EU 50.9 78.4 35.8 36.6 EU 74.3 60.9 41.3 22.2 East Asia & Pacific 2.1 6.1 14.6 5.2 East Asia & Pacific 12.2 12.9 East Asia & Pacific 18.2 12.0 13.3 6.2 East Asia & Pacific 31.7 12.1 26.2 14.1 East Asia & Pacific 6.3 9.4 15.6 9.0 South Asia 3.1 4.0 1.0 3.0 South Asia 0.0 0.0 South Asia 1.3 0.7 1.0 3.9 South Asia 0.4 0.0 1.0 2.6 South Asia 1.0 0.7 6.4 7.2 Comoros Ethiopia Mauritius South Africa Zambia COMESA Intra-Region 0.6 0.2 5.6 8.7 COMESA Intra-Region 6.3 15.5 3.4 3.6 COMESA Intra-Region 1.3 2.3 1.4 1.5 COMESA Intra-Region 7.5 8.8 1.5 1.7 COMESA Intra-Region 3.8 15.4 8.1 7.5 SADC Intra-Region 0.1 0.0 5.8 18.0 SADC Intra-Region 0.0 0.8 0.1 1.3 SADC Intra-Region 1.4 5.5 14.0 15.5 SADC Intra-Region 7.8 9.4 1.5 1.9 SADC Intra-Region 3.5 18.0 32.6 69.4 Rest of Africa 0.5 0.1 0.4 0.5 Rest of Africa 0.3 2.2 0.8 0.2 Rest of Africa 0.5 0.3 1.0 0.8 Rest of Africa 0.2 1.9 0.3 1.1 Rest of Africa 0.3 0.7 0.1 0.3 USA 28.4 20.4 0.2 1.2 USA 6.8 7.3 19.6 8.2 USA 11.6 17.2 1.2 1.4 USA 10.9 13.1 15.9 11.7 USA 3.6 3.2 6.5 2.2 EU 64.5 53.2 76.8 43.2 EU 46.0 39.9 45.5 37.5 EU 81.4 68.6 36.6 36.1 EU 52.6 40.8 55.1 42.8 EU 27.7 24.3 38.7 12.7 East Asia & Pacific 4.8 23.2 10.7 17.6 East Asia & Pacific 18.37 15.81 8.79 16.35 East Asia & Pacific 2.1 4.6 31.1 26.1 East Asia & Pacific 17.2 21.4 17.1 21.9 East Asia & Pacific 49.1 28.1 10.8 6.5 South Asia 0.1 0.4 1.4 4.9 South Asia 0.0 0.9 1.1 8.6 South Asia 0.1 0.3 5.5 9.4 South Asia 0.5 1.7 0.1 1.5 South Asia 6.2 3.0 4.1 2.2 Congo DR Kenya Mozambique Sudan Zimbabwe COMESA Intra-Region 2.5 3.3 2.7 6.9 COMESA Intra-Region 20.4 30.7 2.7 1.2 COMESA Intra-Region 2.3 14.4 7.4 4.2 COMESA Intra-Region 4.5 3.8 3.9 5.7 COMESA Intra-Region 10.2 7.8 8.1 7.5 SADC Intra-Region 2.0 2.9 8.1 21.5 SADC Intra-Region 6.2 7.5 3.1 8.9 SADC Intra-Region 4.5 20.3 15.2 61.5 SADC Intra-Region 0.0 3.3 0.6 1.0 SADC Intra-Region 24.1 20.8 32.6 69.4 Rest of Africa 0.6 0.3 7.1 21.2 Rest of Africa 1.9 2.2 0.3 0.5 Rest of Africa 0.7 0.0 2.1 0.0 Rest of Africa 1.7 0.6 13.6 0.4 Rest of Africa 1.6 0.8 0.1 0.3 USA 17.6 16.9 6.1 2.6 USA 5.1 5.3 5.6 11.3 USA 6.6 4.0 10.9 3.4 USA 3.4 0.1 5.0 0.9 USA 6.5 6.3 6.5 2.2 EU 66.0 73.5 52.8 34.6 EU 50.2 36.3 46.6 29.6 EU 25.8 54.1 35.4 17.2 EU 34.4 13.8 37.9 33.2 EU 40.7 39.0 38.7 12.7 East Asia & Pacific 5.8 1.7 19.5 7.7 East Asia & Pacific 5.5 5.5 19.5 16.8 East Asia & Pacific 54.7 12.6 20.0 12.2 East Asia & Pacific 29.9 58.3 13.9 29.9 East Asia & Pacific 16.7 20.0 10.8 6.5 South Asia 3.8 3.8 0.5 4.3 South Asia 7.2 10.0 3.4 5.9 South Asia 0.9 6.2 1.7 1.5 South Asia 1.3 0.9 2.5 4.8 South Asia 1.0 0.9 4.1 2.2 Source of data: IMF Direction of Trade Statistics. Notes: See Annex 1. Botswana's exports to Norway averaged 31% during 1990-92. Shares do not add to 100 because trade with the rest of the world is not reported and because nince countries are members of both COMESA and SADC. 46 Annex 6: ESA countries' export composition. 1990-1992 1998-2000 1990-1992 1998-2000 1990-1992 1998-2000 Angola Kenya South Africa 2000 Primary goods 99.03 93.06 Primary goods 84.24 86.22 Primary goods 49.42 All foods 0.38 0.78 All foods 71.05 68.74 All foods 9.91 Agricultural materials 0.01 0.03 Agricultural materials 10.49 15.68 Agricultural materials 3.13 Fuels, Ores and Metals 98.63 92.25 Fuels, Ores and Metals 2.70 1.80 Fuels, Ores and Metals 36.38 Manufactures 0.82 6.77 Manufactures 14.78 13.16 Manufactures 48.43 of which: Leather, rubber and footwear 0.00 0.00 of which: Leather, rubber and footwear 4.14 0.88 of which: Leather, rubber and footwear 1.21 Wood and paper 0.00 0.01 Wood and paper 0.29 0.56 Wood and paper 2.40 Textiles and Clothing 0.01 0.00 Textiles and Clothing 1.94 3.78 Textiles and Clothing 2.00 Botswana 2000 Lesotho 2000 Sudan Primary goods 18.26 Primary goods 0.85 Primary goods 96.22 93.65 All foods 6.40 All foods 0.74 All foods 21.98 31.50 Agricultural materials 0.03 Agricultural materials 0.04 Agricultural materials 72.10 18.66 Fuels, Ores and Metals 11.83 Fuels, Ores and Metals 0.07 Fuels, Ores and Metals 2.14 43.49 Manufactures 77.72 Manufactures 99.05 Manufactures 3.28 4.77 of which: Leather, rubber and footwear 0.55 of which: Leather, rubber and footwear 0.07 of which: Leather, rubber and footwear 0.41 1.98 Wood and paper 0.00 Wood and paper 0.04 Wood and paper 0.02 0.04 Textiles and Clothing 3.40 Textiles and Clothing 86.56 Textiles and Clothing 0.56 1.56 Burundi Madagascar Swaziland 2000 Primary goods 96.35 96.46 Primary goods 84.17 55.83 Primary goods 64.38 All foods 86.82 93.10 All foods 70.49 46.85 All foods 52.15 Agricultural materials 5.14 0.91 Agricultural materials 4.61 5.18 Agricultural materials 10.68 Fuels, Ores and Metals 4.39 2.45 Fuels, Ores and Metals 9.06 3.79 Fuels, Ores and Metals 1.55 Manufactures 3.15 3.38 Manufactures 15.59 43.01 Manufactures 35.44 of which: Leather, rubber and footwear 0.24 0.07 of which: Leather, rubber and footwear 0.65 0.20 of which: Leather, rubber and footwear 0.09 Wood and paper 0.05 0.11 Wood and paper 0.13 0.31 Wood and paper 0.20 Textiles and Clothing 0.72 0.21 Textiles and Clothing 10.22 38.41 Textiles and Clothing 18.18 Comoros Malawi Tanzania Primary goods 64.76 51.99 Primary goods 95.06 87.91 Primary goods 85.93 86.17 All foods 64.11 49.20 All foods 92.14 85.76 All foods 55.85 67.20 Agricultural materials 0.52 0.38 Agricultural materials 2.82 2.07 Agricultural materials 26.82 14.73 Fuels, Ores and Metals 0.12 2.41 Fuels, Ores and Metals 0.10 0.09 Fuels, Ores and Metals 3.27 4.24 Manufactures 34.47 47.82 Manufactures 4.80 11.94 Manufactures 13.35 12.95 of which: Leather, rubber and footwear 0.01 0.01 of which: Leather, rubber and footwear 0.03 0.02 of which: Leather, rubber and footwear 0.39 0.17 Wood and paper 0.43 1.60 Wood and paper 0.20 0.30 Wood and paper 0.66 0.23 Textiles and Clothing 1.09 0.46 Textiles and Clothing 3.36 11.02 Textiles and Clothing 6.98 2.34 Congo DR Mauritius Uganda Primary goods 89.41 46.82 Primary goods 32.94 26.98 Primary goods 97.54 96.53 All foods 13.26 6.98 All foods 32.24 26.25 All foods 85.03 86.64 Agricultural materials 7.97 5.70 Agricultural materials 0.56 0.50 Agricultural materials 12.21 9.26 Fuels, Ores and Metals 68.17 34.13 Fuels, Ores and Metals 0.14 0.23 Fuels, Ores and Metals 0.30 0.64 Manufactures 10.33 51.61 Manufactures 66.72 72.03 Manufactures 2.38 2.60 of which: Leather, rubber and footwear 0.01 0.01 of which: Leather, rubber and footwear 0.04 0.08 of which: Leather, rubber and footwear 0.12 0.43 Wood and paper 0.60 0.28 Wood and paper 0.12 0.12 Wood and paper 0.01 0.01 Textiles and Clothing 0.06 0.02 Textiles and Clothing 57.46 61.31 Textiles and Clothing 0.15 0.03 Djibouti Mozambique Zambia Primary goods 60.80 42.11 Primary goods 61.90 83.23 Primary goods 95.80 87.16 All foods 7.56 17.38 All foods 35.96 55.31 All foods 1.60 7.44 Agricultural materials 34.81 10.69 Agricultural materials 6.40 17.01 Agricultural materials 1.05 6.72 Fuels, Ores and Metals 18.43 14.04 Fuels, Ores and Metals 19.54 10.92 Fuels, Ores and Metals 93.15 73.00 Manufactures 33.97 54.79 Manufactures 37.72 16.47 Manufactures 4.05 10.75 of which: Leather, rubber and footwear 0.69 9.51 of which: Leather, rubber and footwear 0.47 1.14 of which: Leather, rubber and footwear 0.07 0.16 Wood and paper 0.76 1.47 Wood and paper 1.07 0.20 Wood and paper 0.01 0.04 Textiles and Clothing 2.89 1.13 Textiles and Clothing 2.12 2.90 Textiles and Clothing 1.04 5.29 Egypt Namibia 2000 Zimbabwe Primary goods 75.96 60.57 Primary goods 68.08 Primary goods 70.74 74.43 All foods 4.14 6.05 All foods 58.13 All foods 43.63 45.81 Agricultural materials 2.84 4.98 Agricultural materials 1.07 Agricultural materials 7.63 13.93 Fuels, Ores and Metals 68.98 49.54 Fuels, Ores and Metals 8.88 Fuels, Ores and Metals 19.48 14.70 Manufactures 23.10 37.81 Manufactures 31.26 Manufactures 29.05 25.31 of which: Leather, rubber and footwear 0.22 0.82 of which: Leather, rubber and footwear 1.89 of which: Leather, rubber and footwear 1.30 1.71 Wood and paper 0.05 0.32 Wood and paper 0.08 Wood and paper 0.26 0.83 Textiles and Clothing 12.69 23.44 Textiles and Clothing 0.12 Textiles and Clothing 5.89 4.28 Eritrea Rwanda Primary goods 49.27 Primary goods 97.11 96.55 All foods 28.88 All foods 83.86 75.51 Agricultural materials 13.89 Agricultural materials 7.79 6.38 Fuels, Ores and Metals 6.50 Fuels, Ores and Metals 5.46 14.66 Manufactures 47.97 Manufactures 2.72 3.00 of which: Leather, rubber and footwear 16.12 of which: Leather, rubber and footwear 0.33 0.13 Wood and paper 0.31 Wood and paper 0.13 0.16 Textiles and Clothing 2.22 Textiles and Clothing 0.07 0.24 - 47 - Annex 7: Revealed Comparative Advantage 1990-1992 1998-2000 1990-1992 1998-2000 1990-1992 1998-2000 Angola Kenya South Africa 2000 Primary goods 3.78 4.53 Primary goods 3.21 4.20 Primary goods 2.40 All foods 0.04 0.11 All foods 7.66 9.32 All foods 1.34 Agricultural materials 0.00 0.01 Agricultural materials 3.43 7.41 Agricultural materials 1.48 Fuels, Ores and Metals 7.10 8.34 Fuels, Ores and Metals 0.19 0.16 Fuels, Ores and Metals 3.29 Manufactures 0.01 0.09 Manufactures 0.20 0.17 Manufactures 0.63 of which: Leather, rubber and footwear 0.00 0.00 of which: Leather, rubber and footwear 1.99 0.46 of which: Leather, rubber and footwear 0.63 Wood and paper 0.00 0.00 Wood and paper 0.11 0.25 Wood and paper 1.05 Textiles and Clothing 0.00 0.00 Textiles and Clothing 0.29 0.63 Textiles and Clothing 0.33 Botswana 2000 Lesotho 2000 Sudan Primary goods 0.89 Primary goods 0.04 Primary goods 3.67 4.56 All foods 0.87 All foods 0.10 All foods 2.37 4.27 Agricultural materials 0.02 Agricultural materials 0.02 Agricultural materials 23.56 8.82 Fuels, Ores and Metals 1.07 Fuels, Ores and Metals 0.01 Fuels, Ores and Metals 0.15 3.93 Manufactures 1.01 Manufactures 1.29 Manufactures 0.05 0.06 of which: Leather, rubber and footwear 0.29 of which: Leather, rubber and footwear 0.04 of which: Leather, rubber and footwear 0.20 1.03 Wood and paper 0.00 Wood and paper 0.02 Wood and paper 0.01 0.02 Textiles and Clothing 0.57 Textiles and Clothing 14.44 Textiles and Clothing 0.08 0.26 Burundi Madagascar Swaziland 2000 Primary goods 3.67 4.69 Primary goods 3.21 2.72 Primary goods 3.13 All foods 9.36 12.62 All foods 7.60 6.35 All foods 7.07 Agricultural materials 1.68 0.43 Agricultural materials 1.51 2.45 Agricultural materials 5.05 Fuels, Ores and Metals 0.32 0.22 Fuels, Ores and Metals 0.65 0.34 Fuels, Ores and Metals 0.14 Manufactures 0.04 0.04 Manufactures 0.22 0.56 Manufactures 0.46 of which: Leather, rubber and footwear 0.12 0.04 of which: Leather, rubber and footwear 0.31 0.10 of which: Leather, rubber and footwear 0.04 Wood and paper 0.02 0.05 Wood and paper 0.05 0.13 Wood and paper 0.09 Textiles and Clothing 0.10 0.04 Textiles and Clothing 1.50 6.41 Textiles and Clothing 3.03 Comoros Malawi Tanzania Primary goods 2.47 2.53 Primary goods 3.63 4.28 Primary goods 3.28 4.19 All foods 6.91 6.67 All foods 9.93 11.62 All foods 6.02 9.11 Agricultural materials 0.17 0.18 Agricultural materials 0.92 0.98 Agricultural materials 8.76 6.96 Fuels, Ores and Metals 0.01 0.22 Fuels, Ores and Metals 0.01 0.01 Fuels, Ores and Metals 0.24 0.38 Manufactures 0.48 0.62 Manufactures 0.07 0.16 Manufactures 0.19 0.17 of which: Leather, rubber and footwear 0.00 0.00 of which: Leather, rubber and footwear 0.01 0.01 of which: Leather, rubber and footwear 0.19 0.09 Wood and paper 0.17 0.70 Wood and paper 0.08 0.13 Wood and paper 0.26 0.10 Textiles and Clothing 0.16 0.08 Textiles and Clothing 0.49 1.84 Textiles and Clothing 1.02 0.39 Congo DR Mauritius Uganda Primary goods 3.41 2.28 Primary goods 1.26 1.31 Primary goods 3.72 4.70 All foods 1.43 0.95 All foods 3.47 3.56 All foods 9.17 11.74 Agricultural materials 2.60 2.69 Agricultural materials 0.18 0.24 Agricultural materials 3.99 4.37 Fuels, Ores and Metals 4.91 3.09 Fuels, Ores and Metals 0.01 0.02 Fuels, Ores and Metals 0.02 0.06 Manufactures 0.14 0.67 Manufactures 0.93 0.94 Manufactures 0.03 0.03 of which: Leather, rubber and footwear 0.00 0.00 of which: Leather, rubber and footwear 0.02 0.04 of which: Leather, rubber and footwear 0.06 0.22 Wood and paper 0.24 0.12 Wood and paper 0.05 0.05 Wood and paper 0.00 0.00 Textiles and Clothing 0.01 0.00 Textiles and Clothing 8.43 10.23 Textiles and Clothing 0.02 0.00 Djibouti Mozambique Zambia Primary goods 2.32 2.05 Primary goods 2.36 4.05 Primary goods 3.65 4.24 All foods 0.81 2.36 All foods 3.88 7.50 All foods 0.17 1.01 Agricultural materials 11.38 5.05 Agricultural materials 2.09 8.03 Agricultural materials 0.34 3.17 Fuels, Ores and Metals 1.33 1.27 Fuels, Ores and Metals 1.41 0.99 Fuels, Ores and Metals 6.71 6.60 Manufactures 0.47 0.71 Manufactures 0.52 0.21 Manufactures 0.06 0.14 of which: Leather, rubber and footwear 0.33 4.96 of which: Leather, rubber and footwear 0.23 0.60 of which: Leather, rubber and footwear 0.03 0.08 Wood and paper 0.30 0.64 Wood and paper 0.42 0.09 Wood and paper 0.00 0.02 Textiles and Clothing 0.42 0.19 Textiles and Clothing 0.31 0.48 Textiles and Clothing 0.15 0.88 Egypt Namibia 2000 Zimbabwe Primary goods 2.90 2.95 Primary goods 3.31 Primary goods 2.70 3.62 All foods 0.45 0.82 All foods 7.88 All foods 4.70 6.21 Agricultural materials 0.93 2.35 Agricultural materials 0.50 Agricultural materials 2.49 6.58 Fuels, Ores and Metals 4.97 4.48 Fuels, Ores and Metals 0.80 Fuels, Ores and Metals 1.40 1.33 Manufactures 0.32 0.49 Manufactures 0.41 Manufactures 0.40 0.33 of which: Leather, rubber and footwear 0.11 0.43 of which: Leather, rubber and footwear 0.98 of which: Leather, rubber and footwear 0.63 0.89 Wood and paper 0.02 0.14 Wood and paper 0.03 Wood and paper 0.10 0.36 Textiles and Clothing 1.86 3.91 Textiles and Clothing 0.02 Textiles and Clothing 0.86 0.71 Eritrea Rwanda Primary goods 2.40 Primary goods 3.70 4.70 All foods 3.91 All foods 9.04 10.23 Agricultural materials 6.56 Agricultural materials 2.55 3.01 Fuels, Ores and Metals 0.59 Fuels, Ores and Metals 0.39 1.33 48 Annex 8. Factor Intensity of Exports (%) 1990-1992 1998-2000 1990-1992 1998-2000 1990-1992 1998-2000 ANGOLA DJIBOUTI LESOTHO 2000 NAMIBIA 2000 High manufactures 0.13 0.07 High manufactures 5.97 16.19 High manufactures 0.52 High manufactures 11.37 Medium manufactures 0.08 0.18 Medium manufactures 7.86 12.84 Medium manufactures 0.66 Medium manufactures 1.39 Low manufactures 0.01 0.03 Low manufactures 7.69 6.22 Low manufactures 0.27 Low manufactures 0.29 Labor-intensive manufactures 0.59 6.48 Labor-intensive manufactures 4.59 9.89 Labor-intensive manufactures 97.56 Labor-intensive manufactures 18.03 Non-fuel primary commodities 0.44 0.88 Non-fuel primary commodities 52.93 30.15 Non-fuel primary commodities 0.81 Non-fuel primary commodities 64.57 Others 98.76 92.36 Others 20.95 24.71 Others 0.17 Others 4.36 BOTSWANA 2000 EGYPT MADAGASCAR RWANDA High manufactures 0.21 High manufactures 6.00 4.48 High manufactures 1.68 1.28 High manufactures 1.23 0.96 Medium manufactures 3.62 Medium manufactures 1.25 3.36 Medium manufactures 0.33 0.36 Medium manufactures 0.40 1.00 Low manufactures 0.01 Low manufactures 1.97 3.11 Low manufactures 0.14 0.14 Low manufactures 0.38 0.28 Labor-intensive manufactures 73.33 Labor-intensive manufactures 13.50 25.08 Labor-intensive manufactures 13.03 40.06 Labor-intensive manufactures 0.46 0.60 Non-fuel primary commodities 18.26 Non-fuel primary commodities 10.99 15.53 Non-fuel primary commodities 83.26 53.70 Non-fuel primary commodities 97.03 94.57 Others 4.58 Others 66.28 48.45 Others 1.56 4.46 Others 0.49 2.60 BURUNDI ERITREA 1994-1996 MALAWI SEYCHELLES High manufactures 0.42 0.49 High manufactures 9.23 9.65 High manufactures 0.36 0.27 High manufactures 3.41 4.62 Medium manufactures 0.76 0.52 Medium manufactures 4.10 6.64 Medium manufactures 0.70 0.20 Medium manufactures 3.89 1.11 Low manufactures 0.16 0.06 Low manufactures 0.18 0.31 Low manufactures 0.06 0.06 Low manufactures 0.20 0.13 Labor-intensive manufactures 1.69 2.03 Labor-intensive manufactures 8.35 12.01 Labor-intensive manufactures 3.66 11.35 Labor-intensive manufactures 0.49 1.74 Non-fuel primary commodities 96.13 91.13 Non-fuel primary commodities 49.83 30.18 Non-fuel primary commodities 95.05 87.89 Non-fuel primary commodities 90.87 90.93 Others 0.84 5.78 Others 28.32 41.22 Others 0.17 0.24 Others 1.14 1.47 COMOROS ETHIOPIA 1994-1996 MAURITIUS SOUTH AFRICA 2000 High manufactures 31.60 35.19 High manufactures 3.35 2.48 High manufactures 3.90 3.27 High manufactures 6.50 Medium manufactures 0.56 9.18 Medium manufactures 5.64 2.99 Medium manufactures 0.52 0.72 Medium manufactures 11.60 Low manufactures 0.06 0.58 Low manufactures 0.04 0.17 Low manufactures 0.63 0.33 Low manufactures 10.55 Labor-intensive manufactures 1.88 2.67 Labor-intensive manufactures 9.32 5.10 Labor-intensive manufactures 59.39 64.44 Labor-intensive manufactures 14.08 Non-fuel primary commodities 64.65 51.94 Non-fuel primary commodities 80.99 88.83 Non-fuel primary commodities 32.93 26.96 Non-fuel primary commodities 37.15 Others 1.25 0.44 Others 0.65 0.42 Others 2.64 4.28 Others 20.12 CONGO DR KENYA MOZAMBIQUE SUDAN High manufactures 0.37 1.07 High manufactures 4.82 4.34 High manufactures 1.96 2.32 High manufactures 0.79 0.49 Medium manufactures 0.14 0.14 Medium manufactures 0.84 0.96 Medium manufactures 3.64 8.30 Medium manufactures 1.23 0.59 Low manufactures 0.43 0.15 Low manufactures 0.23 0.29 Low manufactures 28.17 1.62 Low manufactures 0.14 0.08 Labor-intensive manufactures 9.51 50.13 Labor-intensive manufactures 8.45 6.98 Labor-intensive manufactures 3.94 3.49 Labor-intensive manufactures 1.00 3.52 Non-fuel primary commodities 69.65 32.09 Non-fuel primary commodities 82.56 85.40 Non-fuel primary commodities 58.97 80.97 Non-fuel primary commodities 93.58 52.37 Others 19.89 16.42 Others 3.11 2.03 Others 3.32 3.31 Others 3.26 42.95 Source: See Annex 1. Note: Data presented is for the 1990-1992 and 1998-2000 periods unless otherwise stated using a shaded box. The period stated in a shaded box applies only to that particular country. 49 Africa Region Working Paper Series Series # Title Date Author ARWPS 1 Progress in Public Expenditure Management in January 1999 C. Kostopoulos Africa: Evidence from World Bank Surveys ARWPS 2 Toward Inclusive and Sustainable Development in March 1999 Markus Kostner the Democratic Republic of the Congo ARWPS 3 Business Taxation in a Low-Revenue Economy: A June 1999 Ritva Reinikka Study on Uganda in Comparison with Neighboring Duanjie Chen Countries ARWPS 4 Pensions and Social Security in Sub-Saharan Africa: October 1999 Luca Barbone Issues and Options Luis-A. Sanchez B. ARWPS 5 Forest Taxes, Government Revenues and the January 2000 Luca Barbone Sustainable Exploitation of Tropical Forests Juan Zalduendo ARWPS 6 The Cost of Doing Business: Firms' Experience June 2000 Jacob Svensson with Corruption in Uganda ARWPS 7 On the Recent Trade Performance of Sub-Saharan August 2000 Francis Ng and African Countries: Cause for Hope or More of the Alexander J. Yeats Same ARWPS 8 Foreign Direct Investment in Africa: Old Tales and November 2000 Miria Pigato New Evidence ARWPS 9 The Macro Implications of HIV/AIDS in South November 2000 Channing Arndt Africa: A Preliminary Assessment Jeffrey D. Lewis ARWPS 10 Revisiting Growth and Convergence: Is Africa December 2000 C. G. Tsangarides Catching Up? ARWPS 11 Spending on Safety Nets for the Poor: How Much, January 2001 William J. Smith for How Many? The Case of Malawi ARWPS 12 Tourism in Africa February 2001 Iain T. Christie D. E. Crompton ARWPS 13 Conflict Diamonds February 2001 Louis Goreux ARWPS 14 Reform and Opportunity: The Changing Role and March 2001 Jeffrey D. Lewis Patterns of Trade in South Africa and SADC - 50 - Africa Region Working Paper Series Series # Title Date Author ARWPS 15 The Foreign Direct Investment Environment in March 2001 Miria Pigato Africa ARWPS 16 Choice of Exchange Rate Regimes for Developing April 2001 Fahrettin Yagci Countries ARWPS 18 Rural Infrastructure in Africa: Policy Directions June 2001 Robert Fishbein ARWPS 19 Changes in Poverty in Madagascar: 1993-1999 July 2001 S. Paternostro J. Razafindravonona David Stifel ARWPS 20 Information and Communication Technology, August 2001 Miria Pigato Poverty, and Development in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia ARWPS 21 Handling Hierarchy in Decentralized Settings: September 2001 Navin Girishankar A. Governance Underpinnings of School Performance Alemayehu in Tikur Inchini, West Shewa Zone, Oromia Region Yusuf Ahmad ARWPS 22 Child Malnutrition in Ethiopia: Can Maternal October 2001 Luc Christiaensen Knowledge Augment The Role of Income? Harold Alderman ARWPS 23 Child Soldiers: Preventing, Demobilizing and November 2001 Beth Verhey Reintegrating ARWPS 24 The Budget and Medium-Term Expenditure December 2001 David L. Bevan Framework in Uganda ARWPS 25 Design and Implementation of Financial January 2002 Guenter Heidenhof H. Management Systems: An African Perspective Grandvoinnet Daryoush Kianpour B. Rezaian ARWPS 26 What Can Africa Expect From Its Traditional February 2002 Francis Ng Exports? Alexander Yeats ARWPS 27 Free Trade Agreements and the SADC Economies February 2002 Jeffrey D. Lewis Sherman Robinson Karen Thierfelder ARWPS 28 Medium Term Expenditure Frameworks: From February 2002 P. Le Houerou Robert Concept to Practice. 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Razafindravonona ARWPS 35 A Review of the Rural Firewood Market Strategy in August 2002 Gerald Foley West Africa Paul Kerkhof Djibrilla Madougou ARWPS 36 Patterns of Governance in Africa September 2002 Brian D. Levy ARWPS 37 Obstacles and Opportunities for Senegal's September 2002 Stephen Golub International Competitiveness: Case Studies of the Ahmadou Aly Mbaye Peanut Oil, Fishing and Textile Industries ARWPS 38 A Macroeconomic Framework for Poverty October 2002 S. Devarajan Reduction Strategy Papers : With an Application to Delfin S. Go Zambia ARWPS 39 The Impact of Cash Budgets on Poverty Reduction November 2002 Hinh T. Dinh in Zambia: A Case Study of the Conflict between Abebe Adugna Well Intentioned Macroeconomic Policy and Bernard Myers Service Delivery to the Poor ARWPS 40 Decentralization in Africa: A Stocktaking Survey November 2002 Stephen N. Ndegwa ARWPS 41 An Industry Level Analysis of Manufacturing December 2002 Professor A. Mbaye Productivity in Senegal ARWPS 42 Tanzania's Cotton Sector: Constraints and December 2002 John Baffes Challenges in a Global Environment - 52 - Africa Region Working Paper Series Series # Title Date Author ARWPS 43 Analyzing Financial and Private Sector Linkages in January 2003 Abayomi Alawode Africa ARWPS 44 Modernizing Africa's Agro-Food System: February 2003 Steven Jaffee Analytical Framework and Implications for Ron Kopicki Operations Patrick Labaste Iain Christie ARWPS 45 Public Expenditure Performance in Rwanda March 2003 Hippolyte Fofack C. Obidegwu Robert Ngong ARWPS 46 Senegal Tourism Sector Study March 2003 Elizabeth Crompton Iain T. Christie ARWPS 47 Reforming the Cotton Sector in SSA March 2003 Louis Goreux John Macrae ARWPS 48 HIV/AIDS, Human Capital, and Economic Growth April 2003 Channing Arndt Prospects for Mozambique ARWPS 49 Rural and Micro Finance Regulation in Ghana: June 2003 William F. Steel Implications for Development and Performance of David O. Andah the Industry ARWPS 50 Microfinance Regulation in Benin: Implications of June 2003 K. Ouattara the PARMEC LAW for Development and Performance of the Industry ARWPS 51 Microfinance Regulation in Tanzania: Implications June 2003 Bikki Randhawa for Development and Performance of the Industry Joselito Gallardo ARWPS 52 Regional Integration in Central Africa: Key Issues June 2003 Ali Zafar Keiko Kubota ARWPS 53 Evaluating Banking Supervision in Africa June 2003 Abayomi Alawode ARWPS 54 Microfinance Institutions' Response in Conflict June 2003 Marilyn S. Manalo Environments: Eritrea- Savings and Micro Credit Program; West Bank and Gaza ­ Palestine for Credit and Development; Haiti ­ Micro Credit National, S.A. AWPS 55 Malawi's Tobacco Sector: Standing on One Strong June 2003 Steven Jaffee - 53 - Africa Region Working Paper Series Series # Title Date Author leg is Better than on None AWPS 56 Tanzania's Coffee Sector: Constraints and June 2003 John Baffes Challenges in a Global Environment AWPS 57 The New Southern African Customs Union June 2003 Robert Kirk Agreement Matthew Stern AWPS 58a How Far Did Africa's First Generation Trade June 2003 Lawrence Hinkle Reforms Go? An Intermediate Methodology for A. Herrou-Aragon Comparative Analysis of Trade Policies Keiko Kubota AWPS 58b How Far Did Africa's First Generation Trade June 2003 Lawrence Hinkle Reforms Go? An Intermediate Methodology for A. Herrou-Aragon Comparative Analysis of Trade Policies Keiko Kubota AWPS 59 Rwanda: The Search for Post-Conflict Socio- October 2003 C. Obidegwu Economic Change, 1995-2001 AWPS 60 Linking Farmers to Markets: Exporting Malian October 2003 Morgane Danielou Mangoes to Europe Patrick Labaste J-M. Voisard AWPS 61 Evolution of Poverty and Welfare in Ghana in the October 2003 S. Canagarajah 1990s: Achievements and Challenges Claus C. Pörtner AWPS 62 Reforming The Cotton Sector in Sub-Saharan November 2003 Louis Goreux Africa: SECOND EDITION AWPS 63 Republic of Madagascar: Tourism Sector Study November 2003 Iain T. Christie (E) D. E. Crompton AWPS 63 République de Madagascar: Etude du Secteur November 2003 Iain T. Christie (F) Tourisme D. E. Crompton AWPS 64 Migrant Labor Remittances in Africa: Reducing Novembre 2003 Cerstin Sander Obstacles to Development Contributions Samuel M. Maimbo AWPS 65 Government Revenues and Expenditures in Guinea- January 2004 Francisco G. Carneiro Bissau: Casualty and Cointegration Joao R. Faria Boubacar S. Barry AWPS 66 How will we know Development Results when we June 2004 Jody Zall Kusek see them? Building a Results-Based Monitoring and Ray C. Rist Evaluation System to Give us the Answer Elizabeth M. 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