ROUNDTABLE: LISTENING TO THE CITIZENS OF UZBEKISTAN OVERALL TRENDS: WELL-BEING, ECONOMIC GROWTH, FLUCTUATIONS IN LOCAL LIVING CONDITIONS, FOOD SECURITY AND RISKS Ikuko Uochi Senior Economist Poverty and Equity Global Practice The World Bank LISTENING TO THE CITIZENS OF UZBEKISTAN SURVEY (L2CU) ▪ The Listening to the Citizens of Uzbekistan Survey (L2CU) has been conducted for 6 years since 2018 on a monthly basis, with the support of the UK Government ▪ The L2CU monitored socio-economic indicators and citizens’ perceptions on important policy areas from approximately 1,500 household respondents, allowing us to analyze the impacts of key policy reforms and household-level outcomes such as income, coping mechanisms, food insecurity, access to services, in addition to individual employment and migration ▪ Sample size: As of January 2024 (Round 65), 1,383 households had the same respondent as in Round 1 (92 percent of Round 1 sample) ▪ Representativeness: Nation, Urban/Rural ▪ Implementation method: Computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI) MACRO AND POVERTY UPDATES • In Uzbekistan, robust and sustained growth continued in 2023 • GDP grew by 6 percent (per capita growth of 3.8%), which was higher than expected • The national poverty rate declined from 14 percent in 2022 to 11 percent in 2023. This indicates about 1 million people escaped from poverty between 2022 and 2023 Poverty Rate (%) GDP/ GDP per capita Growth 25 (%YoY) 8% 20 7% 6% 15 5% 4% 10 19.8 3% 17.0 16.0 14.1 13.9 11.0 11.9 12.0 2% 5 10.1 1% 0% 0 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 National Urban Rural GDP GDP per capita 2021 2022 2023 Source: World Bank staff estimates using Household Budget Survey (HBS) A STABLE MAJORITY SAY THE GOVERNMENT IS ENGAGING IN AN OPEN DIALOGUE, AND REFORMS ON RIGHT TRACK The Government is Engaging in Open The Country is on the Right Track in Dialogue with Citizens Political, Social, and Economic Reforms 100 100 90 90 80 80 70 70 % of population % of population 60 60 50 50 94% 40 86% 40 agree 30 agree 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 Completely Agree Agree Disagree Completely Disagree Completely Agree Agree Disagree Completely Disagree Source: Listening to the Citizens of Uzbekistan Survey PERCEPTIONS OF ECONOMIC CONDITIONS REMAIN STABLE. NOTICEABLE IMPROVEMENT IS SEEN IN LABOR MARKET Economic conditions are good Now is a good time to find a I am worreid about losing my 100% job job 60% 65% 75% 95% 70% 60% 90% 65% 87% % of populations % of populations % of populations 55% 60% 85% 55% 50% 80% 50% 50% 75% 45% 45% 70% 40% 40% Jul-23 Jul-21 Jul-21 Jul-22 Jul-22 Jul-23 Jul-21 Jul-22 Jul-23 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23 Jan-24 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23 Jan-24 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23 Jan-24 Oct-21 Oct-22 Oct-23 Oct-21 Oct-22 Oct-23 Oct-21 Oct-22 Oct-23 Apr-21 Apr-22 Apr-23 Apr-21 Apr-23 Apr-21 Apr-22 Apr-23 Apr-22 Source: Listening to the Citizens of Uzbekistan Survey INCOMES, PARTICULARLY WAGES, ROSE SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN INFLATION Change of Real Income per capita Change of Real Wage Income (YoY, Jan 2021 = 100) (YoY, Jan 2021 = 100) 180 135 131 170 130 157 160 125 150 120 140 115 130 110 120 105 110 100 100 95 90 90 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 May-21 May-22 May-23 May-21 May-22 May-23 Jul-23 Sep-23 Jul-21 Sep-21 Jul-22 Sep-22 Nov-23 Jul-21 Sep-21 Jul-22 Sep-22 Jul-23 Sep-23 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23 Jan-24 Nov-21 Nov-22 Jan-24 Nov-21 Nov-22 Nov-23 Source: Listening to the Citizens of Uzbekistan Survey INCREASING CONCERNS IN THE HOUSEHOLD FINANCIAL SITUATION – NEEDS TO WATCH Household financial situation Used savings to pay for basic needs became worse during month 19% (compared to 2 years before) 20% 25 18% 16% 20 14% % of population 12% % of population 15 14 10% 8% 10 6% 7 4% 5 2% 0 0% May-21 May-22 May-23 Jul-21 Sep-21 Jul-22 Sep-22 Jul-23 Sep-23 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23 Jan-24 Mar-21 Nov-21 Mar-22 Nov-22 Mar-23 Nov-23 Jul-21 Jul-22 Jul-23 May-21 May-22 May-23 Sep-21 Sep-22 Nov-22 Sep-23 Jan-22 Jan-23 Jan-24 Jan-21 Mar-21 Nov-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Nov-23 Source: Listening to the Citizens of Uzbekistan Survey …BUT NOT TRANSLATED INTO EXTREME COPING STRATEGIES Reduced consumption to Borrowed any money to Sold any assets to pay for pay for basic needs during pay for basic needs during basic needs during month month month 3% 10% 12% 9% 10% 8% 8% 2% % of population 7% 8% % of population % of population 6% 5% 4% 6% 1% 4% 1% 4% 3% 2% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% Apr-21 Apr-22 Apr-23 Apr-21 Apr-22 Apr-23 Apr-21 Apr-22 Apr-23 Jul-21 Jul-22 Jul-23 Jul-21 Jul-22 Jul-23 Jul-21 Jul-22 Jul-23 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23 Jan-24 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23 Jan-24 Jan-21 Jan-23 Jan-24 Oct-21 Oct-22 Oct-23 Oct-21 Oct-22 Oct-23 Oct-21 Jan-22 Oct-22 Oct-23 Source: Listening to the Citizens of Uzbekistan Survey WITH INFLATION MODERATED, PUBLIC CONCERNS DECLINED CPI Inflation (% YoY) Noticed significant increase Inflation is a key challenge 18% in prices over the past month facing the country 100 100 16% 90 95 80 90 14% 70 % of population % of population 85 60 12% 50 80 40 48 81 10% 75 30 9% 70 20 8% 9% 65 10 6% 0 60 Jul-21 Jul-22 Jul-23 Jul-21 Jul-22 Jul-23 Jul-21 Jul-22 Jul-23 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23 Jan-24 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-24 Oct-21 Oct-22 Oct-23 Oct-21 Oct-22 Jan-23 Oct-23 Apr-21 Apr-22 Apr-23 Apr-21 Apr-22 Apr-23 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23 Jan-24 Oct-21 Oct-22 Oct-23 Apr-22 Apr-23 Apr-21 CPI (total) Food CPI Source: Statistics Agency, Listening to the Citizens of Uzbekistan Survey SPECIFIC GOODS (FLOUR AND BREAD) DRIVE PERCEPTIONS OF RISING PRICES, IN LINE WITH INFLATION TRENDS Food items cited as driving rising prices 100% 90% 80% 70% % of population 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% rice flour and bread beef lamb Source: Listening to the Citizens of Uzbekistan Survey DETAILED MEASURES OF FOOD INSECURITY CONFIRM IMPROVING TREND Food Insecurity during the past 30 days 50% 45% 40% 35% % of population 30% worried about enough food 25% 20% 20% unable to eat healthy food 15% ate only a few kinds of 12% food 10% ate less than you should 7% 5% without eating for a whole 1% 0% day Source: Listening to the Citizens of Uzbekistan Survey % of population 10 12 14 16 0 2 4 6 8 Jan-21 Feb-21 Source: Listening to the Citizens of Uzbekistan Survey Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 MID-LAST YEAR Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21 Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Agree that my household is poor Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 8 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 12 Jan-24 SLIGHTLY UPWARD TREND IN SUBJECTIVE POVERTY SINCE COMMUNITY-LEVEL: WELL-BEING, DEVELOPMENT, AND CHALLENGES MAHALLA LEADERS’ STRONG POSITIVE VIEWS ON LOCAL ECONOMIC SITUATIONS Mahalla: Financial situation of Mahalla: Agree that now is a good time households in our mahalla is worse than to find a job /start a business in our this time last year mahalla 60 100 55 99 95 % of mahallas 50 % of mahallas 49 90 45 40 85 35 80 30 Find a job Start a business Source: Listening to the Citizens of Uzbekistan Survey CONCERNS ABOUT INFLATION AND FOOD INSECURITY ALSO IMPROVED IN MAHALLA LEADER’S VIEW Mahalla: Abnormal price increases Mahalla: Average number of Families observed in the last 30 days who are food insecure in our mahalla 70 35 60 30 50 25 % of mahallas 40 20 30 15 11 20 10 10 5 0 0 Source: Listening to the Citizens of Uzbekistan Survey INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT IS A KEY PRIORITY FOR THE MAHALLA COMMITTEE ▪ Mahalla leaders place a greater emphasis on voluntary fundraising for the community’s infrastructure and sanitation services and service delivery improvements priority areas for mahalla committee activity (September 2023 - January 2024) mobilizing voluntary fundraising for infrastructure, landscaping, 50 50 and sanitation local infrastructure and service delivery improvements 51 48 provide information on programs, referral services, and support to 100 0 households identifying/providing support to low-income households and 100 0 vulnerable groups identifying low-income households 100 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 % of mahallas No/Low priority Medium priority High priority Source: Listening to the Citizens of Uzbekistan Survey HALF OF MAHALLA LEADERS PRIORITIZE CONSTRUCTING WATER SUPPLY SYSTEMS IN THE COMMUNITY The most important civil works' construction projects 80 70 60 56 % of mahallas 50 40 30 20 16 10 7 0 0 health clinics water supply systems roads/bridges irrigation systems food storage Source: Listening to the Citizens of Uzbekistan Survey KEY MESSAGES ▪ Uzbekistan has undergone significant reforms in 2023, and the Public continuously supports ongoing political, social, and economic reforms ▪ Public perceptions of the labor market have significantly improved since the beginning of 2023. Mahalla leaders also shared optimistic views on the local labor market conditions ▪ Despite an increasing concern in the household financial situation, severe coping strategies (such as selling assets, increasing indebtedness levels, and reducing food intake) were not employed by households ▪ With inflation pressure moderated, people’s concern about food security has eased PUBLIC PERCEPTIONS ON CLIMATE CHANGE MOST PEOPLE CONSIDER CLIMATE CHANGE A SERIOUS PROBLEM How serious a problem do you think climate change is for the world at this moment? (scale 1-5) Dec-21 0 10 27 30 32 Dec-23 6 4 38 26 26 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 % of population 1. Low Seriousness 2 3 4 5. Highest Seriousness Source: Listening to the Citizens of Uzbekistan Surveys The module for climate change was included in the December 2021 and December 2023 rounds THE PUBLIC STRONGLY SUPPORTS THE GOVERNMENT’S ACTION IN RENEWABLE ENERGY AND REDUCTION OF GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS The government should set We should reduce greenhouse gas ambitious targets to increase the emissions to a minimum while amount of renewable energy used offsetting the remaining emissions Dec-21 13 82 5 Dec-21 13 82 5 Dec-23 61 37 1 Dec-23 63 36 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 0 20 40 60 80 100 % of population % of population Completely agree Agree Disagree Completely disagree Completely agree Agree Disagree Completely disagree Source: Listening to the Citizens of Uzbekistan Surveys AIR POLLUTION HAS BECOME A SERIOUS PROBLEM OVER THE LAST TWO YEARS, ESPECIALLY IN URBAN CITIES Air pollution is a serious health concern for me and my family by urban and rural (Dec 2023) Dec-21 13 81 5 Urban 69 29 Rural 60 36 Dec-23 62 34 4 0 50 100 % of population Completely agree Agree 0 20 40 60 80 100 Disagree Completely disagree % of population Completely agree Agree Disagree Completely disagree Source: Listening to the Citizens of Uzbekistan Surveys HALF OF CITIZENS STRONGLY SUPPORT THE GOVERNMENT TO IMPOSE HIGHER TAXES ON POLLUTING ACTIVITIES The government should impose If the government were to impose higher taxes on higher taxes on polluting activities polluting activities in Uzbekistan, how should the revenue be used (Dec 2023) to provide transfers to all citizens equally 7 Dec-21 13 77 9 2 to finance assistance for children 9 to finance pensions for the elderly 9 to invest in green investments 37 Dec-23 50 34 12 5 to provide help to the poor and vulnerable 21 to lower income tax 5 0 20 40 60 80 100 to lower other taxes on the goods and services 11 % of population 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Completely agree Agree Disagree Completely disagree % of population Source: Listening to the Citizens of Uzbekistan Surveys