The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report EAC Statistics Development and Harmonization Regional Project (P164243) EAC Statistics Development and Harmonization Regional Project (P164243) EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AFRICA | Eastern and Southern Africa | Poverty and Equity Global Practice | IBRD/IDA | Investment Project Financing | FY 2019 | Seq No: 7 | ARCHIVED on 08-Nov-2022 | ISR53003 | Implementing Agencies: East African Community, East African Community Key Dates Key Project Dates Bank Approval Date: 27-Jul-2018 Effectiveness Date: 20-Dec-2018 Planned Mid Term Review Date: -- Actual Mid-Term Review Date: Original Closing Date: 31-Dec-2023 Revised Closing Date: 29-Dec-2023 pdoTable Project Development Objectives Project Development Objective (from Project Appraisal Document) The development objective of this project is to support the production of harmonized and quality statistics in the EAC, in support of the regional integration in the region, through capacity building of the National Statistical Offices of the East African Community (EAC) Partner States and the EAC Secretariat. Has the Project Development Objective been changed since Board Approval of the Project Objective? No Components Table Name Component 1: Human Resources and Institutional Developments:(Cost $10.70 M) Component 2: Improved data quality, comparability, dissemination and use:(Cost $7.30 M) Component 3: Project Management:(Cost $2.00 M) Overall Ratings Name Previous Rating Current Rating Progress towards achievement of PDO Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory Overall Implementation Progress (IP) Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory Overall Risk Rating Moderate Moderate Implementation Status and Key Decisions The project is currently in its fourth year. Project implementation has picked up speed across the various technical areas. A considerable increase was witnessed over the past 9 months in the production of harmonized and quality statistics in the East Africa Community. The project has also considerably strengthened human resources and institutional development, even exceeding the relevant PDO target. This will be the last ISR for this project as the closing date is proposed to be brought forward from 29 December 2023 to 29 December 2022. This is because the new East Africa Regional Statistics Program for Results (EARSPforR) (P176371) which includes an investment project component for the EAC statistics department became effective on August 30, 2022 and the closure of this 'old' project was proposed during appraisal of the new project. During the implementation support mission in September 2022 the new proposed closing date was set at 29 December 2022 and it was 11/8/2022 Page 1 of 6 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report EAC Statistics Development and Harmonization Regional Project (P164243) agreed that all scheduled activities for the old project should be delivered and accepted by the proposed closing date for expenditure to be eligible as per WB Disbursement Guidelines. Risks Systematic Operations Risk-rating Tool Risk Category Rating at Approval Previous Rating Current Rating Political and Governance Moderate Low Low Macroeconomic Moderate Low Low Sector Strategies and Policies Low Low Low Technical Design of Project or Program Substantial Moderate Moderate Institutional Capacity for Implementation and Substantial Moderate Moderate Sustainability Fiduciary Moderate Moderate Moderate Environment and Social Low Low Low Stakeholders Substantial Moderate Moderate Other -- -- Moderate Overall Moderate Moderate Moderate Results PDO Indicators by Objectives / Outcomes Increased production of harmonized and quality statistics in the EAC IN01188738 ►Increased percentage of implementation by the Partner States of the regional guidelines in compiling national accounts, CPI, external sector statistics, and poverty statistics (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 25.00 37.50 66.00 Date 31-Jul-2018 26-Nov-2021 30-Sep-2022 29-Dec-2023 Overall Comments PDO The assessment for the four priority areas is as follows: 11/8/2022 Page 2 of 6 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report EAC Statistics Development and Harmonization Regional Project (P164243) 1. CPI: The regional guidelines for compilation of CPI are being implemented by all the 6 Partner States. The assessment of compliance with the guidelines as at end September, 2022 indicated that 4 out of 6 Partner States are implementing the guidelines with a compliance score of 60% and above, leading to an implementation rate of 4*1/24=16.7%. Two countries have not yet reached the minimum threshold of a 60% compliance score. 2. External Sector Statistics: The Draft Balance of Payments and International Investment Position (BOP/IIP) guidelines are being implemented by all Partner States. Based on the assessment framework as at end September, 2022, the implementation rate (compliance score) for all the 6 Partner States is below the minimum threshold of 60%, leading to an implementation rate of 0%. 3. Poverty: The regional guidelines on poverty have been developed, adopted by the Technical Working group. Further, the TWG has developed the framework for monitoring compliance with the guidelines. Based on the assessment as at end September, 2022, five out of six Partner States are implementing more than 60% of these EAC guidelines leading to an implementation rate of 5*1/24=20.8%. Only one country has not yet reached a 60% implementation compliance score. 4. National Accounts: The implementation of NA guidelines has not yet started. The regional guidelines for compilation of National Accounts have been developed and validated by the technical working group. But their implementation has not yet started. Therefore, the percentage of implementation of the regional guidelines by Partner States in compiling National Accounts, CPI, External sector statistics and Poverty statistics, is 16.7%+20.8%=37.5%. Intermediate Results Indicators by Components Human Resources and Institutional Developments IN01188739 ►Number of statistics experts at the EAC Secretariat hired by the project to work at the Statistics Department or the East African Statistics Bureau (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 Date 31-Jul-2018 26-Nov-2021 30-Sep-2022 29-Dec-2023 IN01188741 ►Number of Partner States professional statisticians trained on regional guidelines (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 13.00 348.00 96.00 Date 31-Jul-2018 29-Oct-2021 30-Sep-2022 29-Dec-2023 IN01188744 Number of women trained in regional guidelines (Number, Custom Breakdown) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 1.00 93.00 32.00 Date 31-Jul-2018 29-Oct-2021 30-Sep-2022 29-Dec-2023 Improved data quality, comparability, dissemination and use IN01188740 ►Number of guidelines prepared to improve the comparability of national accounts, CPI, poverty, and external sector statistics in the Partner States (Number, Custom) 11/8/2022 Page 3 of 6 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report EAC Statistics Development and Harmonization Regional Project (P164243) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 1.00 4.00 4.00 Date 31-Jul-2018 29-Oct-2021 30-Sep-2022 29-Dec-2023 IN01188742 ►Percentage of use by the Partner States of compatible software for CPI and external trade statistics compilation (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 50.00 50.00 75.00 Date 31-Jul-2018 29-Oct-2021 30-Sep-2022 29-Dec-2023 Development of a data portal for trade statistics has been completed, with technical support from the AfDB. As per the assessment made as at end September, 2022, six Partner States are using the portal. This translates to a score of 6*1/12=50%. EAC CPI compatible software is under development and expected to be completed and available for use Comments: by all Partner States in 2023. This translates to a score of 0%. Therefore, the percentage of the use of the two software is 50+0=50% IN01188743 ►Data center at the EAC Secretariat or the EASB established (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value No Yes Yes Yes Date 31-Jul-2018 29-Oct-2021 30-Jun-2022 29-Dec-2023 With support from the African Development Bank (AfDB), an ODP platform has been developed and adopted for sharing of statistics, and data from various statistical sectors have been uploaded. This essentially fulfills the role of a data center. While a physical data centre at the EAC is still being Comments: considered this will only supplement the current cloud hosting of the ODP databases and project documents. IN01188745 ►Number of the Partner States conducting user satisfaction surveys on economic statistics (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 3.00 3.00 3.00 6.00 Date 31-Jul-2018 29-Oct-2021 30-Jun-2022 29-Dec-2023 A harmonized User Satisfaction Survey questionnaire has been developed and has been pre-tested in two Partner States. The questionnaire has been cleared by the Sectoral Council for Finance and Economic Affairs (SCFEA) for use in Partner States. Due to lack of funding to launch the initial harmonized user Comments: satisfaction survey , the initial USS using the harmonized questionnaire has been implemented by only 3 partner states. However, funding should be available for additional partner states under the new regional statistics PforR. Overall Comments IR 11/8/2022 Page 4 of 6 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report EAC Statistics Development and Harmonization Regional Project (P164243) Performance-Based Conditions Data on Financial Performance Disbursements (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Currency Original Revised Cancelled Disbursed Undisbursed % Disbursed P164243 IDA-D3630 Effective USD 20.00 20.00 0.00 10.19 8.71 54% Key Dates (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Approval Date Signing Date Effectiveness Date Orig. Closing Date Rev. Closing Date P164243 IDA-D3630 Effective 27-Jul-2018 10-Oct-2018 20-Dec-2018 31-Dec-2023 29-Dec-2023 Cumulative Disbursements 11/8/2022 Page 5 of 6 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report EAC Statistics Development and Harmonization Regional Project (P164243) Restructuring History There has been no restructuring to date. Related Project(s) There are no related projects. 11/8/2022 Page 6 of 6