Allocating universal service subsidies using electronic multi-round reverse auctions: Telecommunications in Tanzania World Bank Group 29 June 2023 Final Report © 2023 The World Bank Group 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbankgroup.org Some rights reserved 1 2 3 4 21 20 19 18 The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank Group, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank Group does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. 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If you wish to reuse a component of the work, it is your responsibility to determine whether permission is needed for that reuse and to obtain permission from the copyright owner. Examples of components can include, but are not limited to, tables, figures, or images. All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org Allocating universal service subsidies using electronic multi-round reverse auctions: Telecommunications in Tanzania World Bank Group 29 June 2023 Final Report Preface This report has been prepared by Dr. Chris Doyle, The completion of this study was conducted under Head of Telecoms, CEPA1 for the World Bank’s Digital the supervision of the World Bank (WB) co-Task-Team Development Global Practice. The funding has been Leaders for the DTP, Tim Kelly and Sara Ballan. It has provided by the Digital Development Partnership (DDP) also benefitted from discussions held with stakeholders Trust Fund2 and is given in support of the implementation during the DTP Implementation Support Mission held over of the Digital Tanzania Project (DTP – P160766)3. 1-5 August 2022. In particular, meetings were held with representatives of telecommunications operators and The report explores the use of more innovative and government officials at UCSAF. Meetings took place in Dar transparent procurement techniques, such as interactive es Salaam and Dodoma. electronic auction platforms, for the allocation of universal service awards. Although the specific case study is for An earlier version of the report benefitted from comments mobile broadband awards in Tanzania, it could easily be provided by Khalid Bin Anjum, Senior Procurement applied to other universal service infrastructure (such as Specialist, World Bank, Tanzania; Siddhartha Raja, fiber or satellite), and in other countries. Senior Digital Development Specialist, World Bank; Andy Dymond, Universal Service Consultant, and Knut J. The project has been undertaken in close collaboration Leipold, Lead Procurement Specialist, World Bank. Isabel with the Universal Communication Services Access Fund Neto, Practice Manager IDD04, World Bank, chaired the (UCSAF), based in Dodoma, Tanzania, and the Ministry review process in December 2022. of Information, Communications and Information Technology (MICIT). 1 “CEPA” is the trading name of: Cambridge Economic Policy Associates Ltd (Registered: England & Wales, 04077684); CEPA LLP (A Limited Liability Partnership Registered: England & Wales, OC326074); and Cambridge Economic Policy Associates Pty Ltd (ABN 16 606 266 602). 2 For more information on the DDP, see: https://www.worldbank.org/en/programs/digital-development-partnership 3 The Digital Tanzania Project (DTP) is funded by The World Bank and has the following project development objectives: to increase access to high quality internet services for government and citizens, and to improve the government's capacity to deliver digital public services. The DTP is an investment project financing implemented by the Government of the United Republic of Tanzania through the Ministry of Information, Commu- nication and Information Technology (MICIT) and the President’s Office for Public Service Management and Good Governance (POPSMGG) with financing support from the International Development Association (IDA) – see Digital Tanzania Project P-160766 Contents Preface i Figures, tables and boxes iv abbreviations and acronyms vii Executive summary x 1. Introduction 1 1.1. Background 1 1.2. Telecommunications: access and services 2 1.3. The Digital Tanzania Project (DTP) 3 1.4. Rural broadband policy and DTP 5 1.5. Procurement methods for disbursing funds to promote 6 universal service and universal access objectives 1.6. Current UCSAF and MICIT policy: SRA format 8 1.7. MRRA and price discovery 11 1.8. Report structure 13 2. The Tanzania telecommunications market 14 2.1. Fixed and Mobile network operators 14 2.2. Mobile money 15 2.3. Tower companies 16 2.4. Regulatory landscape 17 3. Universal service policy in tanzania 18 3.1. Universal Communications Service Access Fund (UCSAF) 18 3.2. UCSAF objectives and responsibilities 19 3.3. Internet penetration policy 19 3.4. Disbursing public funds and UCSAF 20 4. Auctions and universal service funds 21 4.1. The MRRA format 22 4.2. The default MRRA format: the clock auction 29 5. International MRRA case study 25 5.1. FCC Auction 904 – MRRA Clock Auction 25 5.2. Auction 904 – outcome 26 6. Lessons for Tanzania 27 6.1. Legal framework 27 6.2. Procurement experience 27 6.3. Capacity building and education 27 v 7. Steps towards a pilot: multi-round reverse clock 28 auction– recommendations 7.1. Step 1: Identification of sites and number of sites 28 7.2. Step 2: Estimate maximum allowable subsidy for each site 28 7.3. Step 3: The budget 28 7.4. Step 4: Application form and pre-qualification 29 7.5. Step 5: Qualified bidders 29 7.6. Step 6: Electronic auction platform 29 7.7. Step 7: Auction education 29 7.8. Step 8: Auction 30 7.9. Step 9: Auction results and public announcement 30 7.10. Step 10: Auction impact evaluation 30 8. Next steps 31 8.1. Wider lessons 31 Appendix Appendix A telecommunication operators in tanzania 34 Appendix B Regulators in the communications space 39 Appendix C Auction format: multi-round reverse clock auction detailed rules 41 C.1. Before the auction starts C.2. Bidding rules C.3. Activity rules C.4. Processing the clearing round C.5. Information policy Appendix D: Numerical illustration of multi-round reverse auction 47 Appendix E Electronic auction platforms 53 E.1. Recommended EAP for pilot auction E.2. Independent module alongside taneps Appendix F Slides presented at mission in dodoma 55 Bibliography 60 vi Figures, tables and boxes Figure 1 Map of Tanzania 4 Figure 2 Tanzania population density map 4 Figure 3 The bid success rate of UCSAF reverse auctions 6 Figure 4 MNO subscriber shares and subscriber volumes 9 Figure 6 Auction 904 with over 5 million areas eligible for support 26 Figure 7 NICTBB Network Map 37 Table 1 Key Recommendations xi Table 2 Recommendations for auction pilot xi Table 3 Next steps xii Table 4 Bidder estimates of funding required to earn a normal return 2 Table 5 Next steps in the multi-round reverse auction process 3 Table 6 Evaluating aggregate cost 3 Table 7 Within round information policy 8 Table 8 End of round information policy 10 Table 9 Clearing round and subsequent rounds information policy 12 Table 10 Five areas and maximum allowable subsidy 12 Table 11 Illustrative auction round-by-round 16 Table 12 Round 1 bidder values and aggregate cost 21 Table 13 Round 2 bidder values and aggregate cost 31 Table 14 Round 3 bidder values and aggregate cost 44 Table 15 Implied price support 45 Table 16 Price determination 46 Table 17 Scenario 1 post clearing round bidding 46 Table 18 Scenario 2 post clearing round bidding 47 Table 19 Illustrative auction round-by-round 47 Table 20 Round 1 bidder values and aggregate cost 48 Table 21 Round 2 bidder values and aggregate cost 48 Table 22 Round 3 bidder values and aggregate cost 49 Table 23 Implied price support 50 Table 24 Price determination 50 Table 25 Scenario 1 post clearing round bidding 51 Table 26 Scenario 2 post clearing round bidding 51 Table 27 Scenario 3 post clearing round bidding 52 Box 1 Static Reverse Auction Format: Illustrative Example 10 Box 2 Price Discovery and Multi-Round Auctions: Illustrative Example 12 vii Abbreviations and Acronyms 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G Second, Third, Fourth, Fifth Generation mobile telephony service ARPU Average Revenue Per User BoT Bank of Tanzania BAFO Best and Final Offer CDMA Code-Division Multiple Access DCA Development Credit Agreement DDP Digital Development Partnership DTP Digital Tanzania Project EAP Electronic Auction Platform EASSy Eastern Africa Submarine Cable System E-Commerce Electronic Commerce FCC Federal Communications Commission (United States) FCCT Fair Competition Commission Tanzania GNI Gross National Income GSMA Global System for Mobile Communications Association HTT Helios Towers Tanzania ICT Information and Communication Technology ICTC ICT Commission IDA International Development Association IDI ICT Development Index IP Internet Protocol ITT Invitation to Tender ITU International Telecommunication Union KYC Know Your Customer (due diligence) LCC Least Connected Countries LGAs Local Government Authorities MAB Most Advantageous Bidder MAS Maximum Allowable Subsidy MBB Mobile Broadband Mbit/s Megabits per second MDAs Ministries, Departments and Agencies MFP Ministry of Finance and Planning MIC Millicom International Cellular MICIT Ministry of Information, Communication and Information Technology viii MNO Mobile Network Operator MOCN Multi Operator Core Network MORAN Multi Operator Radio Access Network MRRA Multi-Round Reverse Auction MPLS Multi Protocol Label Switching MSP Minimum Scale Percentage NICTBB National ICT Broadband Backbone NPS National Payments Systems PO-PSM President’s Office of Public Service Management POPSMGG President’s Office, Public Service Management and Good Governance PPA Public Procurement Act, 2011 PPRA Public Procurement Regulatory Authority PS Permanent Secretary RAN Radio Access Network RBD Regional Broadband for Development RCIP Regional Communications Infrastructure Programme RFP Request for Proposal ROI Return on Investment (a measure of profit over cost of investment) SIM Subscriber Identity Module SMRA Simultaneous Multi-Round Ascending SRA Static Reverse Auction TANePS Tanzania National e-Procurement System TANESCO Tanzania Electricity Supply Company TBC Tanzania Broadcasting Commission TCRA Tanzania Communications Regulatory Authority TMAS Total Maximum Allowable Subsidy TTCL Tanzania Telecommunications Corporation Limited TZS Tanzania Shilling UAT User Acceptance Testing UCSAF Universal Communications Service Access Fund UNCITRAL United Nations Commission on International Trade Law USD United States Dollar VSAT Very Small Aperture Terminal WB World Bank ix Executive summary This report, commissioned by the World Bank using funds Feedback from meetings with key stakeholders, especially from the Digital Development Partnership (DDP) looks feedback from mobile network operators (MNOs), has at the application of a multiple round reverse auction been positive in respect of a pilot MRRA. The pilot will (MRRA) hosted on an electronic auction platform (EAP) likely be used for additional awards of cell tower coverage for allocating universal service funds in Tanzania. subsidies, but could equally be used for other universal Although the specific case study is for mobile broadband service infrastructure goals, for instance providing last subsidy awards in Tanzania, the learnings apply to other mile fiber connectivity for schools. universal service infrastructure awards (such as fiber The report covers among, other things: or satellite) and to other countries disbursing funds to • A summary and assessment of the application of a promote infrastructure development. MRRA hosted on an EAP. • A brief assessment of reverse auctions conducted by The project was undertaken in close collaboration with the other Universal Service agencies around the world, Universal Communication Services Access Fund (UCSAF) in particular focussing on best practice in the United and the Ministry of Information, Communications and States which has the most experience in this field. Information Technology (MICIT). The report has also • An assessment of the ‘readiness’ of the Tanzanian benefitted from inputs from the private sector, notably the market to adopt such an approach mobile network operators currently active in the Tanzania market, and from peer review by World Bank specialists The next steps in the process should be for UCSAF, MICIT and expert external consultants. and the WB to form a working party tasked with designing, procuring and implementing the pilot auction. Extensive The report is part of a programme designed to implement consultation should take place with other stakeholders, sub-component 2.2 of the DTP on extending rural especially the MNOs, before the pilot takes place, most broadband. That sub-component, with an allocation of likely starting in 2023/24. This report sets out how the funds of around USD 29.5 million, aims to complete the pilot should be framed. country’s universal service infrastructure, by providing new cell tower infrastructure for mobile broadband The report recommends the application of a particular in areas that are currently underserved or unserved MRRA format for allocating universal service subsidies. (greenfield sites), and to bring more Tanzanians online by Chapter 2 reviews the telecommunications market and upgrading narrowband (2G) cell sites to provide 4G or looks at operators, services and regulatory agencies. higher mobile broadband service. Universal service policy in telecommunications in Tanzania is reviewed in chapter 3. The report recommends the deployment of a pilot MRRA for disbursing funds extending rural broadband coverage. In chapter 4 auction principles and how in practice This would supplement, and perhaps eventually replace auctions can be designed to allocate universal service the current method of allocating subsidies which relies funds is examined. Chapter 5 looks at international best on a static reverse auction (SRA), blind bid approach practice, as undertaken by the Federal Communications administered by UCSAF. Commission in the US. In chapter 6 draws lessons for Tanzania. The report provides recommendations on how best to conduct a pilot. It is recommended that a descending clock Chapter 7 presents recommendations on a pilot MRRA reverse auction is piloted in accordance with international and this is followed in chapter 8 with next steps. best practice. There are five appendices. Appendix A describes the main licensed operators in the Tanzania market. Appendix B describes the main regulatory agencies of relevance to universal service in telecommunications. x Appendix C sets out in detail the rules of the auction format proposed. Appendix D is a numerical example of the auction proposed and Appendix E is a discussion on electronic auction platforms. A bibliography is at the end. Key Recommendations A To pilot a MRRA to allocate universal service funds in 2023/24 B To host the pilot on an EAP C Prepare and scope a detailed specification for an EAP in accordance with the auction rules set out in this report Table 1 Key Recommendations Table 2 below provides a simplified overview of the recommendations in Chapter 7 of the report addressing specifically the implementation of the MRRA. Recommendations 1 Select up to 100 greenfield sites 2 Select sites from at least three regions and include Zanzibar 3 Apply and develop a financial model to calculate the Maximum Allowable Subsidy (MAS) for each selected site 4 The budget in each region of the pilot should not exceed 90% of the Total MAS (TMAS) in each region 5 Interested parties can be invited to submit bid applications in response to a call for expressions of interest (EOI) 6 List of Qualified Bidders would selected and made public on UCSAF auction website 7 UCSAF shall use a secure EAP hosted on the internet (by purchase or rental) 8 UCSAF shall explore feasibility of using an EAP as an independent module accessible via TANePS 9 UCSAF to undertake bidder information sessions, mock auctions, and engage in bidder and stakeholder education 10 UCSAF to run auction on the EAP, with individual cell sites as separate lots 11 UCSAF to announce winners and publish auction results 12 UCSAF to conduct an impact evaluation of the pilot and draw lesson for future policy Table 2 Recommendations for auction pilot xi Table 3 below shows the next steps discussed in Chapter 8. Item Task Owner 1 Undertake to complete a MRRA using an UCSAF with support from EAP contractors electronic auction platform during 2023 2 Scope out the feasibility of using an EAP as UCSAF with manager of TANePS an independent module accessible on the TANePS platform 3 Develop high-level financial model to inform UCSAF in consultation with MNOs MAS values 4 Capacity building in UCSAF UCSAF and donor agencies 5 Stakeholder engagement UCSAF with other relevant agencies (e.g. TCRA) 6 Detailed workplan for implementing the UCSAF and WB MRRA 7 Wider assessment of the feasibility of multi- WB round procurement auctions in Tanzania and in other countries Table 3 Next steps The report emphasizes that the application of a MRRA delivered on an interactive EAP has the potential to result in substantial benefits for Tanzania. Investment in the process would also build capacity that could be leveraged in other sectors of the economy. xii 1 Introduction The World Bank has retained Dr. Chris Doyle of CEPA as • Market analysis of the main interactive auction a consultant for the purpose of undertaking a study of the platforms available on the commercial market, to use of interactive auction platforms for universal service develop a list of potential suppliers awards in Tanzania. The funding is provided by the Digital • An assessment of the level of interest from cellular Development Partnership (DDP) Trust Fund and given operators, and other stakeholders (such as tower in support of the implementation of the Digital Tanzania companies) to take part in the bidding process Project (DTP – P160766). The report also recommends the potential use of The report is part of sub-component 2.2 of the DTP on interactive auction platforms in other WB lending extending rural broadband. That sub-component, with programs which have a rural broadband component, an allocation of funds of around US$29.5 million, aims to such as the proposed Digital Malawi Phase II (P160533), complete the country’s universal service infrastructure, where the main focus is on fixed broadband extension in by providing new cell tower infrastructure for mobile secondary cities and rural areas, and to schools. broadband (MBB) in areas that are currently underserved or unserved (greenfield sites), and to bring more Tanzanians online by upgrading narrowband (2G) cell sites 1.1 Background to provide 4G or higher mobile broadband service. Tanzania is on the coast of East Africa and in 2021 its The project has involved close collaboration with the population was estimated at 63.6 million (see Figures Universal Communication Services Access Fund (UCSAF), 1 and 2).4 Following two decades of sustained growth, based in Dodoma, Tanzania, and with officials working Tanzania reached an important milestone in July 2020 with the Ministry of Information, Communications and when it formally graduated from low-income country Information Technology (MICIT). to lower-middle-income country status. Tanzania’s achievement reflects sustained macroeconomic stability The study has been conducted under the supervision of that has supported growth, in addition to the country’s the World Bank (WB) co-Task-Team Leaders for the DTP, rich natural endowments and strategic geographic Tim Kelly and Sara Ballan. The report presents a list of position.5 policy recommendations with regard to the deployment of a pilot multi-round auction. The WB estimates GDP per capita at USD1,099 and The content of the report covers among other things: reported a real GDP growth rate of 4.3 percent and a GDP • An overview and summary of procurement methods per capita growth rate of 1.3 percent in 2021, following for disbursing funds to promote universal service a 1.0 percent per capita GDP contraction in 2020 (due objectives mainly to the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic). The • A summary and assessment of the use of interactive national poverty rate6 is estimated to have declined auction platforms used by other Universal Service marginally in recent years and stood at 44.9 percent in agencies around the world 2018, driven by the recovery of employment and nonfarm • An assessment of the “readiness” of the Tanzanian business revenue. Growth is expected to strengthen over market to adopt such an approach the next two years. The real GDP growth rate was forecast at 4.6 percent in 2022.7 4 Source: World Bank Development Indicators, https://data.worldbank.org/country/TZ Nearly 42 million (or around two-thirds) of the population are defined as living in rural areas, see Table 1, TCRA (2021) “2021 Country Data” at https://www.tcra.go.tz/uploads/text-editor/files/Country%20 ICTs%20Indicators%202021_1645555763.pdf 5 See https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/tanzania/overview 6 The World Bank measures its poverty headcount ratio as the percentage of the population living on less than $2.15 a day at 2017 purchasing power adjusted prices. 7 See https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/tanzania/overview 1 1.2 Telecommunications: access and services The telecommunications market in Tanzania is largely comprised of mobile communication services. The market is competitive with six licensed mobile network operators (MNOs) and a number of smaller specialised service providers offering a range of services. The MNOs provide 99.9% of active lines in operation and in March 2023 mobile penetration of the population stood at 97.2%. By contrast there were only 84,517 fixed telephone lines in operation.8 The largest mobile operator, Vodacom, has a 4G population coverage of more than 42% and a 3G population coverage of more than 63% (see Appendix A for details about licensed communications operators in Tanzania).9 MNO Registered SIMs Share Launch 5G 17,054,716 27.6% Yes 26% 8,146,036 13.2% 30% 15,171 0.0% Yes Number of telecom 27.6% Subscriptions and 16,599,038 26.8% Market Shares 13.6% 0% 2.4% 1,510,985 2.4% Yes 18,553,779 30.0% 61,879,725 100% Table 4 MNOs, subscriber volumes and shares at March 202310 In September 2022, Vodacom switched on Tanzania’s first 5G network, a stand-alone 5G network largely covering Dar es Salaam with a plan to reach out to more than 230 other locations in the country, including Arusha, Dodoma, Mwanza, Iringa, Kagera, Zanzibar, and Mbeya.11 Tigo launched a 5G network in Dar Es Salaam, Dodoma, and Zanzibar in February 2023 through upgrading its 4G facilities and in collaboration with Ericsson is aiming to expand its service over the next few years.12 In June 2023, Airtel announced it had launched 5G services in Tanzania.13 In respect of internet access penetration, which for most users is via MBB devices, according to the Tanzania Communications Regulatory Authority (TCRA) this stood at 52% in March 2023.14 This represents a significant improvement over recent years. The International Telecommunications Union (ITU) (2015) noted Tanzania was positioned as 152 out of 166 on the global ICT Development Index (IDI), one of 42 of the Least Connected Countries (LCC) in the world.15 In July 2022, ITU estimated internet use at 20% of the population.16 Although the population coverage statistics present a healthy picture in regard of access to communications, geographic coverage varies significantly across the country and many areas have only a limited 2G or 3G mobile service. In Table 5 it can be seen that access to MBB services providing 4G or higher service extends over 40% of the country and covers 58% of the population. 8 Source: Communication Statistics, Quarter ending March 2023, TCRA (2023) 9 See Vodacom Tanzania Public Limited Company Annual Integrated Report for the year ended 31 March 2021 at https://vodacom.co.tz/annualRe- sults 10 Source: TCRA (2023) op cit. 11 See Vodacom (2022) at https://www.vodafone.com/new/technology/vodacom-switches-on-tanzania-first-5g-network 12 Ericsson Press Release (2023) “Tigo Tanzania and Ericsson launch 5G and enhance existing network” 15 February. 13 Business Post (2023) “Airtel Rolls Out 5G Services in Nigeria, Tanzania, Zambia”, 21 June. 14 Source: TCRA (2023) op cit. 15 ITU (2015). 16 See ITU Digital Development Dashboard at https://www.itu.int/en/ITU-D/Statistics/Dashboards/Pages/Digital-Development.aspx 2 Description Mobile Standard March 2023 Percentage of the population covered 3G 74% by a MBB network signal (3G, 4G or higher) 4G 58% Percentage of geographical coverage 3G 59% by mobile network signal (3G, 4G or higher) 4G 40% Table 5 MNOs, subscriber volumes and shares17 The data in Table 5 indicate that competition over the last few years has resulted in Tanzania achieving a respectable coverage in communication services. However, compared against world averages, Tanzania, like other least developed countries (LDCs), has a substantial access gap. The ITU estimated that in 2022 for LDCs there was on average “an access gap of 17 per cent of the population that cannot access the Internet”.18 This gap is due in large part to the low affordability or relatively high cost of services, as well as due to the relatively high cost of network rollout. Table 6 below shows Tanzania in comparison to other LDCs, the World and neighbouring countries. Coverage: % Affordability: MBB Access: % individuals Region/Category/Country population covered by basket as % of GNI per using the Internet 4G network capita World (2022) 66.3 88 1.5 LDCs (2022) 36.1 49 5.8 Angola 32.6 33 2.7 Democratic Republic of Congo 22.9 40 10.3 Kenya 65.0 97 3.1 Malawi 24.4 69 9.4 Mozambique 17.4 50 9.4 Tanzania 50.6 52 4.6 Uganda 10.3 31 5.4 Zambia 21.2 91 2.4 Table 6 International comparison of MBB coverage and affordability in 2021 (unless otherwise stated) 19 1.3 The Digital Tanzania Project (DTP) Like most other countries, Tanzania is seeking to promote wider access to broadband services and the internet, especially in rural areas. The DTP has set an objective to increase access to high quality broadband internet services for government, businesses and citizens, and to improve the government’s capacity to deliver digital public services. The DTP20 is geared at accelerating digital economy towards industrialization by supporting implementation of the Government’s National Five- Year Development Plan. This is intended to enhance Government efforts towards achieving a knowledge-based society for socio-economic development. 17 TCRA (2023) op cit. 18 ITU (2023), page 6. 19 Sources: ITU (2023) op cit., Table A2.3; A4AI “Data-Only Mobile-Broadband Basket” for 2021; allAfrica (2021) “Tanzania: Vodacom Network Cover- age Provides Vital Rural Connectivity” 24 September 2021. 20 See The United Republic of Tanzania Ministry of Communication and Information Technology (MCIT) Digital Tanzania Project (DTP) Stakeholders 3 Figure 1 Map of Tanzania21 Figure 2 Tanzania population density map22 Engagement Plan (SEP) March 2021 at https://www.mawasiliano.go.tz/uploads/documents/sw-1616059071-Digital_Tanzania_Program_%20 SEP_March_2021.pdf 21 Source: World Bank at https://maps.worldbank.org/ 22 Ibid. 4 The DTP programme has the following three components: extend data-enabled (3G or higher) network coverage to three million people currently living in areas of 1 Digital Ecosystem – (i) Digital Enabling Environment the country that are currently unserved by a mobile (Establishment of National ICT Professional and cellular signal and will upgrade existing 2G networks Innovation Centre, Establishment of ICT equipment to 3G and above. refurbishment, Scanning of ICT Regulatory Environment) (ii) Infrastructure to Support National 5. The RBD will be conducted in collaboration with Development and E-Commerce (Enhancing UCSAF. The mechanism proposed to be used in this the National Addressing and postcode system, intervention is a “reverse auction subsidy”23, similar Development of the National Statistical Information to the one used under RCIP-3, and as used in multiple Management System, National e-Commerce WB programs, such as Niger Smart Villages (P167543) initiatives) and Digital Malawi (P160533).24 2. Digital Connectivity – (i) Connected Government 26. This report is a study on reverse subsidy auctions (connecting all unconnected Ministries, Departments intended to inform how best to achieve the goals of and Agencies (MDAs) and Local Government RBD and Digital Connectivity. Authorities (LGAs) to high-speed broadband through extension of the Government Communication Network and increasing capacity of the Government 1.4 Rural broadband policy and DTP Bandwidth) (ii) Rural Broadband for Development According to the DTP Implementation Status & Results (expanding rural mobile coverage and upgrading Report (2021), the proportion of the population covered service from 2G to enable broadband connectivity and by a 3G or higher speed mobile network was 68% at utilization of spectrum white space) the end of 2021 (citing data from the Global System for Mobile Communications Association (GSMA)). The target 3. Digital Platforms and Services – (i) Digital Services under the DTP is to see that increase to 75% or higher and Productivity platforms (OneStop Service by end December 2026.25 Most of this increase will need Centres - Huduma Pamoja Centres) in every investment in rural areas of Tanzania. region (offering access to public online services and in person transactions, transformation of the In addition to widening and extending MBB coverage, traditional economy into digital economy) (ii) Data the DTP also sets out targets in a number of other digital Centre Infrastructure (Enhancement of data centre ecosystems, including improvements in the government’s infrastructure) (iii) Digital Literacy and Capacity capacity to deliver digital public services. Building (Government ICT Cadre Training Programme & Citizen Digital Literacy and Awareness Program) To achieve the targets set out, the DTP envisages UCSAF will play a key role. The Fund is working with the MICIT to 4. This report focuses on one aspect of relevance to implement sub-component 2.2 of the DTP on extending component 2: Digital Connectivity. In particular, this rural broadband. Subsidy programmes are targeted at report looks at a specific issue of relevance to sub- site locations for the installation of new or upgraded component 2.2 ‘Rural Broadband for Development’ telecommunications infrastructure. The site locations are (RBD) which builds on a previous program, the third defined according to administrative divisions: ‘wards’.26 phase of the Regional Communications Infrastructure Under DTP, some 763 wards have been identified to Programme (RCIP-3). The RBD activity plans to receive cell coverage for the first time, while a further 23 An auction is viewed by economists as a mechanism (a set of rules) that elicits information from bidders to enable the auctioneer to achieve an objective. A simple objective might be identifying the person who values the object highest and therefore should be awarded the object. This person would be prepared to bid the highest amount for the object and a simple ascending bid auction would identify them and hence achieve the objective. When the auctioneer is a government agency, the objective is usually to ensure the best allocation (set of winners) for society. If an auctioneer knew all the relevant information about bidders, an auction would be redundant as the auctioneer’s objective could be achieved by directly allocating the objects. A reverse auction is an auction where multiple sellers compete to sell (provide) a good or service to a single buyer. A common example is B2B procurement auctions. By contrast, a forward auction is where multiple buyers compete to buy a good or service from a single seller. Common examples of forward auctions are art auctions, treasury auctions, real estate auctions, etc. A Double Auction involves multiple buyers and multiple sellers, e.g. a stock exchange, certain electricity markets, etc. A reverse auction subsidy works by soliciting bids from applicants (sellers or providers of service) for support payments (subsidies) and where the buyer (in this case government) is seeking to disburse limited funds at the lowest possible cost (to the most advantageous bidder). See Klemperer (2004) and Ausubel (2008). 24 Reverse auctions are one of many universal service instruments available. Other instruments include licence obligations, end-user subsidies, desig- nation of universal service providers, access deficit charges, etc. See Muente-Kunigami and Navas-Sabater (2010). 25 See table on page 2 in the Implementation Status & Results Report, World Bank, DTP at https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/ en/099702004262273872/pdf/P160766004a6f90080ac4f070bafef9eaef.pdf 26 The administrative divisions of Tanzania are controlled by Part I, Article 2.2 of the Constitution of Tanzania. Tanzania is divided into thirty-one re- gions (mkoa). Each region is subdivided into districts (wilaya). The districts are sub-divided into divisions (tarafa) and further into local wards (kata). Wards are further subdivided for management purposes: for urban wards into streets (mtaa) and for rural wards into villages (kijiji). The villages may be further subdivided into hamlets (kitongoji). 5 488 cell sites have been earmarked for upgrade from 2G to 3G or higher. Other innovations include opening up bidding to companies other than cellular communications operators (e.g. cell tower companies, VSAT service providers, etc.) and the use of national roaming. Cellular operators who have not previously worked with UCSAF, such as Halotel, will also be invited to bid. The DTP uses a combination of development loans and funds accumulated from licensed operators to provide subsidies aimed at extending rural mobile and rural broadband coverage. The subsidies awarded combine with private capital to support investments. For example, under RCIP-3, USD30m of IDA subsidy leveraged around USD70m in investment from the private sector (i.e. a ratio of slightly better than 1:2). In the following section we describe at a high-level procurement methods for disbursing funds to promote universal service objectives. This is followed by a section looking at the procurement SRA format27 that has been used to date in Tanzania to disburse subsidies. 1.5 Procurement methods for disbursing funds to promote universal service and universal access objectives Universal service and access objectives are set by policy makers and in the telecommunications sector aim to make services accessible to the widest number of people (and communities) at affordable prices.28 The purpose of such policies is to promote social benefits29, greater economic efficiency and equity by reducing gaps30 (see Figure 3 below) in access and service across households and areas. 100% of Communities High cost areas Universal Access Access Gap Sustainability Frontier (4s) Sustainability Frontier (4d) 100% of Population Market Efficiency Frontier (3s) Supply Existing level of Access (2d) Existing level of Access (2s) Market Market Gap Gap Low cost areas Current Penetration (1) Affordability Efficiency Frontier (3d) Universal Access High income households Demand Low Income Household Figure 3 The Gaps Model31 27 An auction format defines the rules for the announcement of prices, the placement of bids, the updating of prices, the auction close, and the way winners are selected. We set out and describe the rules of a well-designed MRRA format in chapter 4 28 This definition is set out in an influential ITU document, ITU (2013). For an early overview on universal service in telecommunications see also Dymond and Rogati (1997). On funding gaps and universal service, see Navas-Sabater, Dymond and Juntunen (2002) and Emiliani (2008). For a good overview of universal service fund policies around the world up to around 2010, see GSMA (2013). 29 An excellent example of social good is presented in World Bank (2023) where evidence shown demonstrates that internet availability increases jobs and reduces poverty in African countries. 30 Perceiving universal service and universal access as filling ‘gaps’ was set out conceptually in Navas-Sabater et al. (2002) op cit. and Stern and Townsend (2006). There are two gaps: a market gap and an access gap, both affecting the supply and demand sides of the market, see Figure 3. 31 Reproduced from Stern and Townsend (2006) p. 21, Summary Report. 6 Achieving universal service and access can be done in a Procuring universal service competitively usually involves number of different ways.32 For example, on the supply both administrative and market elements. Administrators side policy it can be affected by direct regulation through scope the services and infrastructure needed and also the setting of specific licence obligations in regard of determine the criteria for selecting suppliers. Market coverage and pricing. In this instance the cost of universal elements involve respondents supplying cost information access and service is borne directly by consumers. In low through a competitive process.37 income countries this option is unlikely to yield success, as there will not be enough consumers with sufficient income The method of procuring providers to supply universal willing to pay the relatively high prices required to fund service obligations using a reverse auction within a service in poorer areas. competitive context falls broadly into one of three broad categories: Alternatively, or in addition, universal service funds managed by government or regulatory agencies can be 1 . Static Reverse Auction (SRA): Administrators used to subsidise infrastructure investments in areas or scope services required, a request for proposals market segments where gaps have been identified. The (RFP) is issued (either to a limited group or publicly), source of funds is usually from within the industry33, respondents submit responses to the RFP which are general taxation34 and credit facilities from multilateral evaluated according to a scoring method set out in development banks35. the RFP. The scoring criteria should be objective and include a mix of metrics regarding investment and UCSAF in Tanzania is an example of a universal service cost. In a World Bank context, most advantageous fund. In some countries universal service funds are bidder(s) (MAB) are those respondents submitting channelled by government or regulatory agencies to the highest ranked bid(s). In most cases, in a SRA the operators with a special designation.36 This approach selected suppliers receive funds as bid (first-price tends to be appropriate in markets where there is at auction). A variant of the SRA includes the possibility least one operator that has considerable geographic and for post-bid negotiation with MABs.38 population coverage. Instead of designating particular operators as having 2. Multi-Stage Best and Final Offer (BAFO): As with a responsibilities for meeting universal access and service SRA, administrators scope services required, a request objectives, depending on market circumstances, the for proposals (RFP) is issued (either to a limited group disbursement of universal service funds may be better or publicly), respondents submit responses to the RFP undertaken via competitive procurement. This approach which are evaluated according to a scoring method tends to work in environments where sufficient operators set out in the RFP. Those submitting Substantially are relatively symmetrically positioned in the market, Responsive Bids39 are invited to respond in a second where there are substantial gaps in access and service stage with a BAFO. and where there is healthy competition among suppliers. All these conditions hold in Tanzania, as we shall discuss further in this report. 32 Stern and Townsend (2006) op cit. provides an early excellent overview of approaches towards funding universal service. GSMA (2006) gives an early assessment of how mobile communications can help universal access. 33 For example, in the United States universal service is paid for by contributions from providers of telecommunications based of an assessment on their end-user revenues, see https://www.fcc.gov/general/universal-service. 34 For example, in the United Kingdom the government has provided funding to stimulate the rollout of advanced services and fibre networks, see DCMS (2018) Future Telecoms Infrastructure Review. 35 In 2021 the World Bank (IBRD and IDA) lent in the region of $750 million for information, communications and technology projects in Eastern and Southern Africa, see slide 20 in Annual Report 2021 World Bank Lending (Fiscal 2021). 36 For example, in the European Union a national regulatory authority may designate after market analysis certain operators as universal service providers. Any financial transfers to such designated operators are required to be undertaken on an objective basis, and should be transparent, non-discriminatory and proportionate. This is to ensure that universal service cost transfers result in the least distortion to competition and to user demand. See Directive (EU) 2018/1972 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 11 December 2018 Establishing the European Electronic Communications Code, OJ L 321/36. 37 An excellent early account of the application of market elements in procuring universal service is Milgrom (1996) 38 Most universal access auctions that have occurred have typically been a version of the SRA. For example, see Sepulveda (2004) pages 85-94 for an early discussion. Sepulveda describes how until the early 2000s, universal service auctions featured a single round, with Chile being among the first countries to use a competitive SRA process in 1995. Wu (2014) is a useful updated summary of approaches and she also highlights how India pioneered the application of MRRAs for universal service funds in the early 2000s. On the Indian experience see also Jain and Raghuram (2010). 39 According to World Bank procurement methods, a Substantially Responsive Bid is assessed to be complete and without major deviation from the eligibility, technical and commercial requirements in the RFP procurement documents, see World Bank (2018) Procurement Guidance. On procure- ment policy and the World Bank, see Procurement Framework and Regulations for Projects After July 1, 2016. 7 3 . Multi-Round Reverse Auction (MRRA): As with (1) and (2) above, administrators issue a RFP and determine potential suppliers in a pre-qualification process. Respondents who meet pre-qualification criteria are invited to participate in a multi-round bid process (auction) that ends with successful bidders offering the best terms. The MABs receive funding determined by their bids and may receive amounts determined by marginal losing bidder(s) (equivalent to a second-price auction). Each of the above can be deployed to achieve the goals of universal service and universal access. In Table 7 below we set out the respective suitability and pros and cons of each category. Multi-stage: Best and Final Static Reverse Auction Multi-Round Reverse Auction Offer (BAFO) Suitability One lot or a few lots, easy Complex lot or lots, common Multiple/many lots, lots to define lot(s), value value relevant, potentially definable by a few dimensions largely private40 with several suppliers, BAFO – e.g., price and quality, known common value41, allows auctioneer to adapt common value relevant, limited number of suppliers, procurement requirements several or many suppliers negotiation allows for around information revealed welfare gains (win-win) during bid phase Pros Process fairly Allows some price and value Process facilitates price and straightforward, largely discovery value discovery, second-price administrative, works well in formats incentivize bidders less competitive settings to bid truthfully, better value for money Cons No price or value discovery42, Complex, requires probity Lengthier process, relatively bidders may overstate costs, assurance provider for complex, onerous for smaller less good value for money negotiations, bidders may bidders, needs more bidder overstate costs education Table 7 Procuring providers within a competitive context 1.6 Current UCSAF and MICIT policy: SRA format UCSAF43 and MICIT currently use a SRA format for allocating subsidies under the DTP. The format involves the issuing of an Invitation to Tender (ITT).44 The ITT is advertised publicly and sets out technical and financial criteria to guide the award of subsidies to help promote further communications infrastructure investment in underserved areas. The process involves the announcement of a list of wards eligible for financial support. Bidders, usually MNOs, are required to comply with technical specifications in order to be eligible to bid for financial support. UCSAF and MICIT present a maximum allowable subsidy (MAS) available for each ward. In a recent tender process to upgrade 2G networks to 2G/3G and/or 4G networks, UCSAF announced a list of 488 wards where each was allocated the same MAS of TZS 20 million.45 40 An auction where bidders have private values for the object(s) is one where each bidder estimates the value of the object(s) and this is independent of other bidders’ valuations. For example, an MNO estimates the return to build and operate a cell tower in a particular location and its estimate would not change if it knew about other MNOs estimates. 41 A common value auction is one in which the object(s) has the same true value for each bidder. In practice bidders form estimates of this often hidden value based on research and information. For example, if an MNO estimates a return for a cell tower at X, it would likely change this estimate if it knew about the estimates of other MNOs. Other examples of common value objects often seen in an auction context are financial assets, oilfields and wind farm locations 42 Price and value discovery arise in dynamic auction settings for common value objects as participants learn about the hidden values from observ- ing the bids placed by other bidders. By discovering more about the hidden values, bidders can make better informed decisions that lead to more efficient outcomes. For example, a bidder might learn from other bidders’ submissions that the return associated with serving a particular ward with an upgraded telecoms infrastructure is higher than initially anticipated. For more information on price discovery and auction formats, see Milgrom (2017). 43 Further information about UCSAF is in chapter 3. 44 In this report we use ITT and RFP interchangeably. 45 The MAS in USD was in the region of $8,350 for upgraded sites. 8 Those eligible to bid are invited to submit one set of bids for funding.46 Each bidder can express no more than one bid value for each ward and is not permitted to request a subsidy exceeding the MAS. Box 1 provides an explanation of the mechanics of the SRA format used in Tanzania and that was applied in the recent tender for cell sites in underserved areas.47 UCSAF has completed thirteen funding rounds using a SRA and the ‘Bid Success Rate’, defined by UCSAF as the number of wards receiving bids divided by total the number of wards in the award, is shown in Figure 4 for the first eleven rounds.48 Out of these eleven funding rounds shown in Figure 34, no more than 90% of wards received a subsidy in any of the SRAs and on average 61% of wards received subsidy funding. Over the last four funding rounds shown in Figure 4, the bid success rate has been around 50%. Bid Succes Rate (%) 90% 83% 81% 69% 66% 65% 49% 46% 44% 45% 34% PHASE1 PHASE 1APHASE 1BPHASE 2A PHASE 2B BSZPH1 BSZPH2 PHASE 3 PHASE 4 PHASE 5 BSZPH6 Figure 4 The bid success rate of UCSAF reverse auctions49 Factors influencing the bid success rate include: the expected returns of bidders, the format of the auction, and the MAS for each ward (the latter form part of the auction format). In some instances the MAS may not be sufficient to allow for a reasonable commercial return. In the last award shown in Figure 1.4, 55% of wards did not receive a successful bid. This implies more than half of all wards did not receive any funding and investment in those areas was less likely to occur. It was claimed in the previous section that other procurement formats, such as BAFO or MRRA, could perform better than the SRA because of price discovery. As the telecommunications market is competitive in Tanzania and with at least three or four operators in a strong position to bid for subsidies, the MRRA format would seem most appropriate and could lead to superior outcomes. In an MRRA in which bidders may express bids over multiple rounds, price discovery is more likely to lead to a higher bid success rate and better value for money. 46 The MAS is equivalent to the role played by a reserve price in an auction. 47 Source: Evaluation Report and Recommendation for Award of Subsidy for New Cell Sites in Underserved Areas DTP – Phase 1, Tender number: ME.006/WB-DTP/P.160766/306158/2022-2023/HQ/NC/13, February 2023. 48 The bid success rate used by UCSAF differs from the measure usually applied in analyses of reverse auctions for subsidies. Typically, the preferred measure of success looks at the subsidy awarded as a proportion of the total maximum allowable subsidy (TMAS). In early auctions in Chile, for funds to support the rollout of public payphones, subsidy requests were as low as 25% of the TMAS, see Sepulveda (2003). In the recent Tanzania brownfield subsidy award tender in November 2022, (Tender ME.006/WB-DTP/P.160766/285652/2022-2023/HQ/NC/14) there were 488 lots available with a MAS of TZS 20m per ward. The UCSAF measure of bid success rate was 62.3%, whereas the subsidy request was 84.7% of the TMAS for the 304 awarded sites. In the greenfield tender, described in Box 1, the subsidy request was around 87% of TMAS for the 437 awarded sites (a UCSAF bid success rate of 57% out of the 764 in the award). 49 Source: UCSAF presentation, World Bank Mission Workshop, Dodoma, 1-5 August 2022. 9 Box 1 SRA Format used by UCSAF UCSAF’s reverse auction in 2022/23 for greenfield sites “Award of Subsidy for New Cell Sites in Underserved Areas DTP Phase 1” typifies how UCSAF has operated an SRA for awarding subsidies. In this tender there were 764 sites (wards) available for funding. Each ward had a MAS of TZS 145,000,000 (about USD $60,190) or TZS 150,000,000 (about US $ 62,266). In Table 8 below we show the data for the Kigoma region which had 9 wards. Five bidders qualified to bid, though only four bidders in the auction submitted bids at or below the MAS. The results for the Kigoma region are shown below, the figures in bold being winning amounts. Ward Bidder 1 Bidder 2 Bidder 3 Bidder 4 1 145,979 2 3 4 5 6 133,400 7 8 142,000 9 131,950 138,000 Table 8 SRA bids submitted in ‘000s TZS Only one ward was competitive in Kigoma (ward 9), with the allocated subsidy of 131,950,000 representing 91% of the MAS. In ward 1, the allocated subsidy was 97% of the MAS, in ward 6 the allocated subsidy was 92% of the MAS and in ward 8 the allocated subsidy was 98% of the MAS. UCSAF’s measure of bid success for the Kigoma region was 44%. The process involves bidders submitting one subsidy bid request and the bidder submitting the lowest bid in a ward is selected as the winner. Bidders do not have an opportunity to submit new revised bids, though in some instances there is scope for post-bid negotiation with MICIT that oversees the tender process. 10 In the SRA used by UCSAF there is no opportunity for 1.7 MRRA and price discovery price discovery and this limits the effectiveness of the The Bank team has advised the Government to pilot format. The format is also prone to bidders overstating the use of an EAP that will allow for multiple rounds of costs, due to common value uncertainty and what is bidding, conducted in an interactive manner, to achieve known as the winner’s curse.50 a better allocation of sites to bidders, at the lowest price, and with an improved geographic split. The deployment of In the BAFO there is a limited possibility for price an EAP is considered further in Chapter 7 and Appendix E. and value discovery, as bidders would only learn from The attraction of conducting a MRRA format is price information implicit in one round of bids. As we discuss discovery – which enables bidders to improve their further in chapter 4 below, there are strong reasons to estimates of required subsidies. suspect revealing bid values over multiple rounds in a MRRA format would allow bidders to discover more and As in any multi-round auction, bidding continues until this is beneficial. These benefits arise from price discovery demand is brought into line with supply. In the case of a and modern EAPs enable these benefits to materialise MRRA for subsidy, this occurs when demand for financial relatively quickly. support does not exceed the total subsidy made available. Box 2 below speculates what a MRRA format might look It is well understood by auction theorists that multi-round like based on the Kigoma greenfield auction presented auction formats promote price discovery and have the Box 1. potential to be more effective at achieving policy goals.51 For example, in the case of UCSAF, the MRRA format Later in this report we provide a detailed example of could lead to higher bid success rates and, for any given a MRRA format that could be deployed by MICIT and bid success rate, it is likely less funds would be disbursed UCSAF.52 As seen speculatively in Box 2, multiple rounds and there would be higher value for money as price by facilitating price discovery can yield improvements discovery promotes competition. Benefits of this kind are in the bid success rate and value for money. At worst a shown in chapter 5 for the case study of a reverse auction MRRA format is always as good as a SRA. for broadband subsidies in the United States. 50 In a SRA the winner’s curse has the effect of bidders submitting subsidy requests above their estimates – because the thought process of a bidder supposes that winning implies the other bidders have higher estimates. Consequently bidders manage this risk by submitting a higher demand for subsidy support, or no bid at all. The winner’s curse occurs in auctions for objects that have common value. In a SRA for a common value object, a bidder knows that winning the object most means that insufficient subsidy has been requested. This is because the best estimate of the required subsidy is the average of all the bidders’ estimates. A winning bid is based on only the bidder’s estimate in a SRA and will therefore be expected to be above the best estimate – which is an average of all the bidders’ estimates. Knowing ahead of the auction that winning means asking too little, (the winner’s curse), leads every bidder to increase their requests to avoid asking for too little. This has the effect of causing bidders to choose requests that do not reflect their estimates of the value of the object, compromising price discovery and likely resulting in inefficiency. It may also lead to poor value for money. The effect of the winner’s curse can be mitigated by having multiple rounds in an auction. The format enables bidders to update estimates of common value based on information disclosed about other bidders’ estimates during the bidding rounds. An example of this format is the open-outcry English auction deployed by auction houses. This format features a reserve price and an ascending price whenever demand exceeds available supply. For more on the winner’s curse, see Kagel and Levin (2002). 51 The benefits of multi-round auctions have been demonstrated in many spectrum auctions held across the world over the last three decades. Rather than bidding blind, multi-round auctions provide bidders opportunities to react to information discovered during the auction. This view is echoed in GSMA (2021). 52 Box 2 is a simplified version of the format we recommend for the disbursement of public funds for universal service in Tanzania. The format we recommend is explained more fully in Chapter 7 and Appendices C and D. 11 Box 2 Price Discovery and the MRRA format: Speculative illustration In Box 1 bidders submitted one set of bids in the SRA. Here we speculate on what might have happened had UCSAF and MICIT held a MRRA. We suggest two further rounds of bidding might have occurred. The speculative figures are shown below in Tables 9 and 10 (we assume the MAS in each ward is 150,000). Ward Bidder 1 Bidder 2 Bidder 3 Bidder 4 1 145,979 2 3 4 5 6 133,400 130,000 7 8 142,000 9 131,950 Table 9 Round 2 bids in MRRA submitted in ‘000s TZS In round 2, after round 1 requests are revealed, price discovery and bid flexibility leads Bidder 4 to shift from Ward 9 to Ward 6. Ward Bidder 1 Bidder 2 Bidder 3 Bidder 4 1 145,979 2 3 4 133,400 5 6 130,000 7 8 142,000 9 131,950 Table 10 Final round 3 bids in MRRA submitted in ‘000s TZS In round 3, the final round, Bidder 1 shifts from Ward 6 to a new bid on Ward 4. The other bids are not altered. The auction process ends. In this speculative world, the UCSAF measure of bid success in the region is higher at 55.5% (five ward covered versus four in the SRA), and the subsidy requested as a proportion of the TMAS is 91% - which is below the SRA case. 12 1.8 Report structure Appendix C sets out in detail the rules of the auction The remainder of this report explores the possibility of format we propose. This includes charts outlining the applying MRRAs for allocating universal service funds main steps in the recommended process. This is followed and recommends the application of a particular format. In in Appendix D with a numerical example and Appendix E chapter 2 we start by reviewing the telecommunications with a discussion on electronic auction platforms. market of Tanzania, and looking at operators, services and the regulatory agencies. Universal service policy in Appendix F reproduces the slide deck presented at the telecommunications in Tanzania is reviewed in chapter 3. Mission held in Dodoma on 3 August 2022, attended by This assessment leads us to conclude that a MRRA should key representatives from UCSAF (including Ms Justina T. be considered in Tanzania. Mashiba, CEO) and the Ministry of Finance and Planning (MFP) (including Mr Eliakim C. Maswi, CEO). A version of In chapter 4 we briefly discuss auction principles and how the slide content shown in Appendix F was also discussed auctions can be designed in practice to allocate universal with representatives from the MNOs AirTel, Halotel, service funds. Chapter 5 looks at international best Tigo and Vodacom on 1 and 2 August in Dar es Salaam. practice, as undertaken by the Federal Communications Feedback from the stakeholder engagement was positive. Commission in the US. In chapter 6 we draw lessons for A bibliography is presented at the end. Tanzania. In chapter 7 we set out recommended steps towards a pilot MRRA and follow this in chapter 8 with suggested next steps. Five appendices accompany the main report. Appendix A describes the main licensed operators in the Tanzania market. Appendix B describes the main regulatory agencies of relevance to universal service in telecommunications. 13 The Tanzania 2 telecommunications market The telecommunications market in Tanzania 2.1 Fixed and Mobile network operators is overseen by policy set by Government, with The majority of communication services in current policies defined in the 2016 “National ICT the country are supplied through mobile Policy”.53 The most significant policy occurred back telecommunications providers in a highly competitive in 2005 when Tanzania extensively liberalized the market, as shown in summary in Table 4 in Chapter telecommunications sector and established a new 1 above. We have already discussed in the regulator the TCRA to oversee licensing and market introduction above the current status of the mobile enforcement. The liberalization policy was aimed at telecommunications market, see Chapter 1, Section accelerating the take-up of communications services, 2. which were at very low levels by international standards.54 The incumbent operators in Tanzania are Tanzania Telecommunications Corporation Limited (TTCL), In this chapter we set out the telecommunications which until liberalization in 2005, operated as a market landscape in Tanzania today. This provides monopoly on the mainland, and Zantel, as a monopoly a helpful context for the subsequent discussion on provider in Zanzibar. These companies have universal service and the policy instruments used to experienced much restructuring since and have, in promote improved universal service. the case of Zantel, resulted in privatization.55 These two operators provide much of the high capacity We start by looking at fixed and mobile network fixed network infrastructure, as well as offer fixed operators and follow this with a look at mobile line services to end-users and MNOs. money services, which have been an important driver stimulating the growth of both telecommunications and financial services. The emergence more recently of cellular phone tower companies is also discussed. The chapter ends with a brief overview of the regulatory landscape. 53 For example see the National ICT Policy 2016 which updated an earlier policy framework set out in 2003 at https://www.ega.go.tz/uploads/publica- tions/sw-1574848612-SERA%202016.pdf 54 Early initiatives promoting greater coverage involving the African Development Bank started in the 1990s when tele-density in Tanzania was well below 1 per cent. See “Tanzania - Telecommunications II Project 1992-2000” at https://projectsportal.afdb.org/dataportal/VProject/show/P-TZ- GB0-002 55 TTCL was privatised in 2001 but by 2016 was again wholly owned by the Government of Tanzania. Zantel is 85% owned by the private company Millicom with the other 15% held by the Government of Zanzibar. 14 TTCL was given management of the government’s The BoT is required to ensure that payment national fibre backbone, the National Information systems are stable and secure. This duty led to a and Communication Technology Broadband key regulatory development providing consumer Backbone (NICTBB), which services the whole protection in Tanzania in the shape of various country; and under the current arrangements private regulations that ensure due diligence on customers operators must contract for service with TTCL on all (Know Your Customer (KYC)) and in conjunction with the routes it serves.56 the TCRA a requirement for the registration of all Appendix A provides more details about the SIM cards.58 operators in Tanzania. In early 2008, the fintech company E-Fulusi launched the first mobile wallet in Tanzania, MobiPawa, shortly 2.2 Mobile money57 followed by the launch of M-Pesa by Vodacom The absence of an extensive retail banking in April 2008. Over the following two years, the system in the country has both promoted mobile other major MNOs launched their own mobile money services and caused such services to be financial services, Z-Pesa (Zantel), AirTel Money a key driver in promoting the uptake of mobile (AirTel) and Tigo Pesa (Tigo). Mobile money services telecommunication services in Tanzania (and more grew substantially between 2012 and 2018, with generally across the region). The innovation driving subscribers almost tripling from about 8 million mobile money started in Tanzania in 2007 (shortly active subscribers to 23 million active subscribers. after its appearance in nearby Kenya) when MNOs The figures published by the regulator TCRA in Table asked the authorities to allow users to convert 11 below shows data on mobile money subscriptions purchased airtime into cash and transfer this to other by at the end of March 2023.59 users across the mobile network. In 2006, the Bank of Tanzania (BoT) amended the Bank of Tanzania Act to give themselves, as the Central Bank, powers to oversee and regulate non- bank entities offering payment services. In 2007, following the successful launch of M-Pesa in Kenya and extensive discussion with fintech innovators and MNOs, the BoT adopted a “test and learn” approach to test, and monitor, the deployment of digital financial services. MNOs were required to partner with banks under a BoT ‘letter of no objection’ to ensure the protection of consumer funds. The government of Tanzania is extending the NICTBB with a view to achieving its ICT vision. NICTBB is being implemented in five (5) phases. Phases I and II and sub-phase I of phase III have been completed. Phases I and II involved the construction of 7,560 km of NICTBB to cover all regional head- quarters, cross-border connectivity to the neighbouring countries of Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Zambia and Malawi, and international con- nectivity to the submarine cables of the Eastern Africa Submarine Cable System (EASSy) and Seacom. Phase III sub-phase I involved the construction of an Internet Protocol (IP)/Multiprotocol Label Switching (MPLS) layer on top of the core NICTBB, a connected optical fibre cable between Main- land Tanzania and Zanzibar, and the first national data centre in Dar es Salaam, which is operational as a tier 3 data centre. The implementation of Phase III subphase II will involve the expansion of NICTBB networks to all district headquarters as well as the construction of national data centres in Dodoma and Zanzibar. The Government is engaging the private sector under a public-private partnership arrangement to construct ICT infra- structure that includes metro fibre networks in urban areas, and the construction of missing links through a consortium of operators. Through this initiative, a total of 2,595 km (missing links: 2,020km and metro: 575km) have been deployed as phase IV of the NICTBB. Source: page 26 in “Report on the Implementation of the Istanbul Programme of action for LDCs for the decade 2011-2020” March 2021 available at https://www.un.org/ldc5/ sites/www.un.org.ldc5/files/tanzania.pdf The NICTBB is managed and operated by TTCL on behalf of the government, through the MICIT. Recently the government has promoted further fibre investment by encouraging TTCL to partner with the electricity company TANESCO, see https://itweb. africa/content/5yONP7EgONeqXWrb 13 September 2021. TTCL has also recently applied to the International Financial Corporation (IFC) of the World Bank Group (WBG) to seek additional financing. 57 This section has benefited from the content in Ephraim and Mhina (2021). See also di Castri and Gidvani (2014). 58 To register a SIM card in Tanzania it is a requirement to provide details of your ID, a fingerprint and have a passport style photo taken. 59 See TCRA (2023) Table 2.1, op cit. 15 MNO Mobile Money Service Subscribers % Market Share Provider Airtel 9,507,726 21% Halotel 3,821,098 9% Tigo 13,608,203 31% TTCL 1,221,065 3% Vodacom 16,195,476 36% TOTAL 44,353,568 100% Table 11 Mobile money subscriptions at March 2023 2.3 Tower companies Tanzania’s MNOs have, as in the case of many countries, divested management and ownership of their telecom towers to independent tower companies. In 2013, Vodacom sold 100 per cent of its 1,149 towers to Helios Towers Tanzania (HTT)60 on the basis that it would lease back the infrastructure subject to a long-term contract (Wakama 2013).61 In 2019, HTT owned 3,650 sites in Tanzania and, according to its website, it had a market share of 68 per cent in 2018 (see Helios Towers 2019). Helios Towers reported that it had an average 2.18 MNOs on each of its towers in Tanzania in 2018 (see Helios Towers 201962), indicating that significant physical infrastructure sharing takes place.63 HTT have completed four tower transactions since 2011 and recently reported it manages 4,068 sites with 9,121 Tenants, giving an average of 2.24 tenants per site.64 AirTel Africa continues to offload its telecom infrastructure in an effort to reduce group debts, selling 1,400 towers throughout Tanzania for USD 175 million. AirTel Africa has announced the sale of 1,400 cell towers to a joint venture between a subsidiary of the SBA Communications Corporation and UK-based Paradigm Infrastructure Solutions. The towers represent the entire portfolio belonging to AirTel subsidiary AirTel Tanzania. Paradigm holds a minority stake of the joint venture and maintains responsibility for the JV’s day-to- day operations.65 The JV is operating as Minara Tanzania.66 60 HTT is part of the Helios Towers group, a UK-based telecommunications company listed on the London Stock Exchange and a constituent of the FTSE 250 Index. The company was established in Mauritius with financial backing from George Soros, Millicom and Bharti Airtel in 2009. It was the subject of an initial public offering on the London Stock Exchange in 2019. 61 Wakama, A.S. (2013). ‘Vodacom Tanzania Acquires Helios Towers Tanzania Network’. IT News Africa, 22 July. Available at: https://www.itnewsafrica. com/2013/07/vodacom-tanzaniaacquires-helios-towers-tanzania-network/ 62 HTT(2019) Annual report and financial statements at https://www.heliostowers.com/media/1786/ht-ar-2019.pdf 63 Regulation in Tanzania requires MNOs to build larger towers capable of supporting no less than three sets of different Radio Access Network (RAN) equipment. 64 https://www.heliostowers.com/where-we-work/tanzania/ 65 See https://paradigm-infra.com/news-story/first-closing-of-tower-acquisition-transaction-in-tanzania/ 66 See https://minara.co.tz/ 16 2.4 Regulatory landscape The liberalized telecommunications market in 3. Application service the reselling of electronic Tanzania operates under a myriad of regulators. communication services to end users Direct regulation of operators is overseen by 4. Content service, a service offered for sound, data, the TCRA who apply a licensing regime based on text or images whether still or moving except where an approach pioneered by Malaysia known as a transmitted on private communication Converged Licensing Framework. There are four categories of licence available: Most of the network operators described above 1. Network facility the provision of any element hold licences in each category. The TCRA maintains a or combination of physical infrastructure used database of licence holders on its website. principally for, or in connection with, the provision of Appendix B provides a summary of the principal Content services and other Application services, but actors in the regulatory space. not including customer premises equipment67 2. Network service a service for carrying information in the form of speech or other sound, data, text or images, by means of guided or unguided electromagnetic energy, but not including services provided solely on the customer side of the network boundary 67 The template for a network facilities licence is available at https://www.tcra.go.tz/uploads/documents/sw-1619014620-Network%20Facility%20 (NF).pdf In this document it can be seen that the term length is defaulted at 25 years for a network facilities licence and in addition to an initial fee, the licensee shall pay a royalty based on turnover. 17 Universal service 3 policy in Tanzania Over the years various Governments have emphasized 3.1 Universal Communications Service the need for greater coverage of telecommunications and Access Fund (UCSAF) universal service. The road to universal service was set out UCSAF has been operational since 2010 and is responsible before liberalization in the National Telecommunications for both collecting funds and disbursing monies for the Policy of 1997.68 Ambitions for promoting ICT were also purpose of promoting communications development laid out in The Tanzania Development Vision 202569 and in overseen by the Universal Communications Service the Rural Development Strategy 2001.70 Access Fund Regulations.74 In 2003 the Government defined a new National ICT It is funded by a universal service levy applied on the policy in which it recognized the importance of funding gross operating revenues of licensed service providers, by rural coverage: “While there is provision for a Rural Government and by loans provided through international Telecommunication Development Fund, this has not yet agencies.75 Currently the UCSAF Regulations allow a been implemented, leaving matters of universal access to levy charge of 1%, which was gradually increased from an the liberalised environment.”71 Following on from this, the initial 0.3% in 2015-16 to 1% in 2019-20.76 Other sources Universal Communication Service Access Act was passed of funds include: Government, the TCRA, Parliamentary in 200672 which established the guidelines for the creation Allocation, and Development Partner grants (including of UCSAF. WB loans).77 Universal service remains a high priority as demonstrated Funding raised was combined with project funds from the in the 2016 National ICT Policy: “One of the major initiatives RCIP which initially received USD 100 million financed that the government has pursued is the improvement of the by the WB through an International Development ICT infrastructure to bridge the digital divide and lower the Association (IDA) credit facility. The Development Credit cost of communications”73 Agreement (DCA) between the Tanzania government and the WB was signed on 22 July 2009 and the credit became effective on 20 January 2010. The project was implemented jointly by the Ministry of Works, Transport and Communication (MWTC) and the President’s Office- Public Service Management (PO-PSM).78 UCSAF has conducted thirteen SRAs since 2010 which have resulted in the granting of universal service funds to 68 See section 2.1 in National Telecommunications Policy, October 1997 at https://www.tcra.go.tz/uploads/documents/sw-1619081634-National%20 Telecommunications%20Policy%20of%201997.pdf 69 For example, see page 20 in “The Tanzania Development Vision 2025”, published 2000 available at http://www.tzonline.org/pdf/theTanzaniadevelop- mentvision.pdf 70 “Rural Development Strategy”, Prime Minister’s Office, December 2001 at http://www.tzonline.org/pdf/ruraldevelopmentstrategy1.pdf 71 See page 8 in the United Republic of Tanzania, Ministry of Communications and Transport “National Information and Communications Technologies Policy” 2003 at http://www.tzonline.org/pdf/ictpolicy2003.pdf 72 https://www.tcra.go.tz/uploads/documents/sw-1619084421-The%20Universal%20Communications%20Service%20Access%20Act%20of%20 2006.pdf 73 National ICT Policy 2016 p.1 see note 26. 74 See https://www.ucsaf.go.tz/uploads/documents/sw-1635428722-Kanuni%20za%20MFUKO.pdf 75 Sources of funds for UCSAF are set out in general terms in the UCSAF Act 2006, section 23, op ci 76 There is the perspective of reviewing the universal service levy upwards up to a ceiling of 1.5% as provided for by the UCSAF Act (section 18(4)). Source EU (2021) Action Document for Digital4Tanzania – e-Governance Support Programme available at https://www.gtai.de/resource/ blob/788132/e262205f40141c2ea2c13c84f61c4b27/PRO20220127788124%20-%20Annex3.PDF 77 For a summary of early interventions, see pp.41-42 in GSMA (2013). 78 The original availability period of 40 years concessionary loan covers the timeframe of five (5) years with effect from January 2010 through Febru- ary 2015. The principal amount plus interest is to be repaid in equal semi-annual instalments over a period of 30 years effective from 15 Septem- ber 2019, upon expiry of the grace period of 10 years. The interest component of the loan facility is calculated at the margin rates of 1% and 2%, between 15 September 2019 and 15 March 2029; and between 15 September 2029 and 15 March 2049, respectively. 18 licensed communications operators. As noted in Ministry of Finance and Planning (MFP, 2021), this has helped in 6. Advising the TCRA on matters relating to “Increasing the number of fixed and mobile subscribers from communications for all; 21.2 million (2010) to 48.9 million in (2020). This increase 7. Looking for appropriate ways to provide is attributed to the continued investment in communication subsidies (including auctions) for the delivery of services, including in rural areas via the UCSAF”.79 telecommunications services in rural areas and in areas that are not commercially viable; 8. Legalize contracts for the implementation of 3.2 UCSAF objectives and communications service delivery responsibilities; 9. Operating and developing the Fund as established; responsibilities 10. Establish good procedures for managing, calculating UCSAF was established in 2006 with the aim of delivering and collecting communication levies for all from and facilitating communication services to citizens living in service providers; areas with no commercial appeal to telecommunications service providers.80 UCSAF is responsible for enabling 1. Calculate, plan and distribute communications accessibility and participation by communication grants to all; operators in the provision of communication services, 2. Recommend effective Fund policies to the with a view to promoting social-economic development Minister of Communications Sector; of the rural and urban underserved areas through 3. Managing the Fund’s financial resources and ICT interventions as well as to ensure availability of ensuring that the Fund’s expenditure benefits the communication services in rural and urban underserved community; areas and to bridge the digital divide between rural 4. Consulting and collaborating with Government populations and urban populations. A key objective Ministries, Departments or Independent of establishment of UCSAF is to bridge the existence Authorities regarding public service matters; and 5. Developing guidelines for the operation of the communication gap between urban and rural population. Fund. The ‘Fund’ is a body corporate with a board whose members are appointed by the relevant government Minister. UCSAF has a number of responsibilities: 2.3 Internet penetration policy The Government announced in early 2021 plans to 1. To identify areas of communication projects that may increase internet penetration in the country from the level receive grants from the Fund – such a rural broadband of 43% in December 2020 to 80% by 2025, and to extend development; access to telecommunications to a further 173 unserved 2. Set criteria for identifying areas of villages that need villages and to switch off 2G.81 By March 2023 about 33.1 and cannot access telecommunications services million had access to internet services, a penetration rate because they have no commercial appeal; of over 50%.82 3. Establish an effective financial management system; 4. Set appropriate criteria for granting grants to telecommunications service providers for deploying communications in designated areas; 5. Conduct various surveys and monitor the development of communications in rural and non- commercial areas; 79 See page 25 in MFP (2021) “Report on the Implementation of the Istanbul Programme of Action for LDCs for the Decade 2011-20: Tanzania Coun- try Report”, March, available at https://www.un.org/ldc5/sites/www.un.org.ldc5/files/tanzania.pdf 80 See https://www.ucsaf.go.tz/ 81 Source https://itweb.africa/content/KA3WwMdD99eMrydZ 82 See Table 3.1 in TCRA(2023) op cit. 19 3.4 Disbursing public funds and UCSAF Since its establishment in 2009 UCSAF has worked in UCSAF disburses funds via contract to bidders whose bids periodic phases. In June 2020 Rural Telecom Project phase have been determined as Most Advantageous Bids. These 5 started. UCSAF provides subsidies to private operators are the bids of the bidders that meet the qualification and in the first four phases of activity from 2013 to 2019 criteria and whose bids have been determined to be: it mobilized TZS 120 billion (USD 50 million). The level of subsidies is steadily increasing, and it is expected to (a) substantially responsive to the particular bidding increase in the coming years.83 document; and (b) the lowest evaluated cost. Funds have been disbursed in thirteen award programmes since 2010. The process for disbursing funds follows a As already discussed in chapter 1, participating bidders path where UCSAF initially identifies areas in need of have one opportunity only to submit a request for public support. Once areas have been identified, UCSAF then support in each area listed in an SRA award process. As we arranges a process to allocate the funds. argued above, if the bidding process had multiple rounds of bidding, there would be a greater chance of securing The process that UCSAF has applied to date is based on a higher bid success rate. This theme is picked up in the a mechanism called Request for Bids. UCSAF publishes a following chapters. list of wards (administrative areas) available for possible receipt of public support and sets a MAS for each area under consideration. For example, 200 areas (wards) may be listed as part of an award process, and each will have a value attached designating the MAS. Typically UCSAF has set a MAS across wards such that total funds available are divided almost equally. Although the MAS is usually the same for most lots (wards), the costs of service provision and levels of demand may be very different across wards. 83 See p.7 in EU(2021) op cit 20 Auctions and universal 4 service funds In choosing how to disburse universal service funds, Principle of Public SRA Multistage MRRA government agencies have a number of policy Procurement with BAFO options available (as shown in Chapter 1, Table 7 above). Whichever option is chosen, the goal of public Competition procurement should adhere to the following key principles: Transparency Accountability • Competition, Table 12 Qualitative assessment of procurement options against • Transparency, and principles of public procurement • Accountability.84 Competition ensures that suppliers are forced to compete The MRRA scores highest in regard of competition for the limited funds available, which drives down costs because with several or many potential suppliers it offers and improves quality. Transparency ensures that bidders the ability for robust, real-time price competitions with know what they are bidding on and why, so they can make multiple rounds of bidding for continued reductions in informed decisions and resources are allocated efficiently. subsidy requests. A multistage auction with BAFO is also Accountability ensures that government officials who more competitive than a SRA, but it is limited in terms of award contracts are held accountable for their decisions, rounds and hence subsidy reductions. minimizing corrupt influence and bias. In the previous chapter we noted UCSAF seeks to ensure The MRRA scores best for transparency, as multiple round that the allocation of universal service funds delivers bidding makes it clearer to all parties what subsidies are value for money and its processes adhere to the principles available in the market and price discovery over multiple above. More generally, the Public Procurement Regulatory rounds increases the precision of cost estimates among Authority (PPRA), which oversees public procurement in potential suppliers. The multistage with BAFO is also able Tanzania, sets a vision that public procurement systems to offer greater transparency than a SRA, but as it usually should have “integrity, offering best value for money”.85 occurs with two rounds, it is more limited in terms of price discovery. In this chapter we argue that auctions and the MRRA format executed on an EAP are best suited to deliver Finally, a well-designed MRRA and multi-stage auction public procurement policy objectives in a competitive with BAFO both perform best in terms of accountability, setting involving the promotion of mobile broadband as the outcome of the process is a result of fair and open coverage. competition among suppliers. The SRA is prone to more bureaucratic judgment and very limited price rivalry with In our view the MRRA format is at least as good as no price discovery, and may as a consequence be less alternative options, as highlighted in Table 10 below, accountable. which scores each option qualitatively against the above key public procurement principles. 84 See Armstrong (editor) (2012) especially chapters 1 and 7. 85 See https://www.ppra.go.tz/ 21 In our view and in the view of many others, a well- The design of auction pays careful attention to the designed MRRA is an effective way to discover prices, detailed structure governing bidding and participation. achieve value for money and promote efficiency in the The main design issues are described in the following ten presence of competition.86 Over the course of the last 20 elements, which are considered in the context of UCSAF’s years or so there have been a number of reverse auctions responsibilities:90 in the telecommunications sector.87 It is the MRRA we focus on in this report, as competition and the scale of the 1. Lot category universal service programme in the telecommunications A key component in designing an auction is the sector in Tanzania facilitates its application. description of lots for award – here the area in which the subsidy is offered and technical specifications are relevant. For UCSAF, this is achieved by choosing 4.1 The MRRA format areas that coincide as closely as possible with areas In a reverse auction with multiple objects (such as a served or potentially served by MNOs cell sites. To reverse auction involving hundreds of lots), a single round ease the administrative process, UCSAF chooses areas of bidding does not provide bidders the opportunity to that align service areas with political administration change bids in response to information revealed by other areas known as wards. Note that more than one ward bidders in their bids. This means bidders are not able to may be served by a single, well-sited cell tower. exploit variations in value for substitute or complement objects. Consequently, under a single round of bidding a 2. Lot size bidder is more likely to be exposed to the risk of paying How lots are dimensioned can influence the way too much for an inferior combination of objects if some bidders approach bid strategy and impact on auction objects that are desired and have synergies are won by outcomes. For example, lots can be presented other bidders (known as exposure risk88). individually, as is typically the case by UCSAF, or they may be organized in categories such as regions, etc., MRRA formats are designed to mitigate exposure risk, to ease auction logistics. The more packaged are lots, promote price discovery and as a result are more likely to the reduced scope bidders may have to assemble their yield an efficient allocation of public subsidy funds. preferred packages. On the other hand, pre-arranging In a multi-round auction, as in all auctions, the design and lots into convenient batches (say regional blocks), may clarity of the auction rules are critical to success: in this simplify auction logistics.91 instance ensuring an efficient allocation of funds. This was amplified by Wallsten (2009):89 3. Maximum Allowable Subsidy (MAS) The MASs in UCSAF auctions are calculated with “In addition, other countries have used reverse auctions reference to available credit facilities, estimates of to provide universal service with some success. Their cost of service and estimates of demand. The MAS experiences demonstrate convincingly that reverse auctions should be sufficiently high enough to attract credible can bring down subsidies substantially. Their experiences also interest, but not too high to avoid poor value for demonstrate that, as in any auction, the rules matter a great money, and not too low to deter participation. deal.” 86 As Nobel Prize winning economist Paul Milgrom has emphasised, multi-round auction formats promote efficiency and price discovery, see Milgrom (2004). Wallsten (2009) asserts “that reverse auctions can be an effective tool for revealing information about the true cost of providing universal coverage and for reducing expenditures on subsidies.” The benefits of electronic reverse auctions have been noted more widely in government pro- curement, for example see Hawkins (2010), and Shalev and Asbjornsen (2010). According to the Office of Federal Procurement Policy in the United States, electronic reverse auctions have brought savings of around 12-14% for several Federal agencies in the United States, see Memorandum for Chief Acquisition Officers, Anne E. Rung “Effective Use of Reverse Auctions”, 1 June 2015 at https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/lega- cy_drupal_files/omb/procurement/memo/effective-use-of-reverse-auctions.pdf 87 An early contribution on reverse auctions in the telecommunications sector is Wallsten (2009). In 2009 seventy one eminent economists in the United States wrote an article favouring the use of reverse auctions (procurement auctions) in promoting broadband stimulus programmes, see Milgrom et al. (2009). For a more recent empirical assessment see Oh (2021). The empirical assessment by Wu (2014) is also a very good overview of applications of reverse auctions in the telecommunications sector. 88 Exposure risk, also known as aggregation risk, occurs in multi-unit auctions in which there are synergies across lots, see Cramton (2002). 89 Wallsten (2009) op cit. page 397. 90 See also Paul Milgrom, Lawrence Ausubel, et al. (2012) “Incentive Auction Rules Option and Discussion”, submitted by Auctionomics and Power Auctions to the FCC available at https://apps.fcc.gov/edocs_public/attachmatch/FCC-12-118A2_Rcd.pdf 91 Increasing the number of lots in an auction offers more discretion for bidders but comes at a risk of additional computational complexity, especially in regard of bid strategy, winner determination (depending on how bids are expressed) and valuation. In some circumstances this can result in inef- ficiency. In an econometric analysis of the US ‘C Block’ spectrum auctions of 1995-96, in which the FCC offered 480 distinct licence areas, Fox and Bajari (2013) argued that had the FCC chosen fewer licensed areas the outcome would have been more efficient. 22 4. Bidder Categorization 7. Assignment (which winner receives which lots) UCSAF may choose to categorize interested parties In a MRRA and other universal service reverse (bidders) depending on industry background, size, auction formats, the assignment of areas to winners is location, experience, etc. In the subsidy awards to straightforward because the lots are defined as set out date, UCSAF has granted funds to communications in (1) above. In other auctions in telecommunications, bidders may initially bid for generic lots (such as the providers such as MNOs, though the technical quantum of radio spectrum) and once demand is specifications do not always preclude others (such as equated with supply, a second stage assignment of tower companies) from participating. UCSAF might winning lots to specific frequencies may take place. In choose to designate certain parties as entrants if there principle generic ‘geographies’ could be established in is concern about market competition. a reverse auction setting, although this would unlikely yield material benefits. 5. Bid collection (how bid information is gathered from bidders) The way UCSAF collects information from bidders 8. Pricing rule (how bids determine the subsidies depends on the type of auction. As discussed, UCSAF received by winners) collects information using a SRA. Alternatively, The pricing rule determines what the winning bidders bid information may be gathered over multiple receive in regard of subsidy. Rules may require bidders rounds in a MRRA. A single round auction could be receive-as-bid (first-price), pay-as-clear (all successful executed quickly and where the bidders are well- bidders receive the same market clearing price) or receive an amount equal to the nearest unsuccessful informed about the value of the lots and common bidder (second-price). In the assignment stage it is value uncertainty is not significant, this may be usual to apply second-price solutions. optimal. However, we feel the conditions in the subsidy award auctions do feature sufficient common 9. Activity rules (constraints on bid activity) value uncertainty to warrant consideration of the Activity rules are crucially important and govern MRRA format. However, a MRRA, depending on the number and type of lots a bidder can bid for design, can facilitate strategies that lead to strategic subsidy in an auction. In general these may cover overstatement of subsidy requests (equivalent to three dimensions: (i) the minimum quantity of lots demand reduction in a forward auction). This gaming a bidder is required to bid for; (ii) the maximum behaviour can be mitigated through other rules quantity of lots a bidder can bid for, and (iii) an overall constraining the nature of bidders’ bidding activity bid activity constraint. Their purpose is to promote and rules affecting information disclosure, see (9) and straightforward bidding (i.e. bids based on a bidder’s (10) below. valuation rather than influenced by other bidders’ valuations), competition and progression. 6. Winner determination (how winners are identified) Bid activity rules can help progress an auction and A common winner determination procedure is to encourage bidders to bid in accordance with their award lots to bidders submitting the lowest bids. If valuations.92 Typically, bid activity rules are applied by there is scope to present packaged bids, it may not be the auctioneer using a points measure of bid activity. straightforward to assign each lot to a winning bidder. In this case, the auctioneer would usually apply an For example, each ward is assigned points by the algorithm to search for the best assignment of bids auctioneer before the start of an auction. The points that win (the usual winner determination criterion structure could reflect a pre-auction estimate of the relative value of lot categories. A bidder’s maximum would be to look for the winning combination of bids activity in an auction is usually determined by its initial that yields the lowest subsidy request, where each eligibility, which is the total number of activity points bidder submits only one bid in that combination, and associated with the bidder’s deposit. the allocation is feasible). 92 Activity rules may also allow for waivers, where bidders can sit out a round and remain active in the auction without submitting a bid. The motivation for waivers is to provide bidders additional time to consider ongoing participation. The downside of waivers is bidders may use them strategically. Another activity rule may permit bid withdrawals, to protect bidders against the risk of winning uneconomic lots. The downside of withdrawals is strategic bidding aimed at price driving (which in the context of a reverse auction means bidding purposely to lower the amount of subsidy a rival may receive on a lot). 23 As part of bid activity rules, the auctioneer chooses an 4.2 The default MRRA format: the clock activity requirement for each round. This usually works auction by determining the bidder’s eligibility in each round. The modern default auction format for multi-round For example, the activity requirement might be such that a bidder can preserve its eligibility as long as its auctions is known as a clock auction.94 A clock auction Is processed activity (the points it uses when bidding in a when the auctioneer announces prices and for the case of round) is 90% or more of its eligibility.93 If a bidder’s a reverse auction these decline over time (i.e. successive processed activity were less than 90%, its eligibility rounds). going into the next round is lowered. A very simple clock auction format is as follows. Assume We set out in Appendix C.2 the activity rules for an a policymaker has $100 universal service funds for an MRRA subsidy auction. area in which one operator is invited to supply service. Suppose three bidders qualify to bid for subsidy. The 10. Information disclosure (what information is auctioneer starts by announcing support at $100 and all made available to all bidders when) three bidders’ express interest. The three bidders are tied Information of relevance in an auction relates to at $100. The auctioneer lowers the price in a subsequent bids submitted, who is bidding, who bid what, etc. round and announces $95 support. Assume one bidder Information disclosure procedures determine what drops out, leaving two contesting the subsidy. After a information is made public before, during and after an auction. It also relates to information disclosed to further round at which the auctioneer announces $90, bidders before a round, during a round, and after each only one bidder is left in the auction. round. In Appendix D we provide a detailed illustrative example Transparency and disclosure are viewed as favourable of a clock auction involving multiple areas. We propose for price discovery and accountability. On the this format for application in a pilot to be deployed by other hand, too much disclosure may foster anti- MICIT and UCSAF. The clock auction format pilot we competitive bidder collusion and gaming. Examples propose is a variation of one used by the FCC in the of information disclosure rules include making United States, which is the focus of the next chapter. bidders’ identities anonymous during the auction and revealing excess demand information in summary form. Such rules are intended to deter bidders from gaming. We set out in Appendix C.5 information disclosure rules for an MRRA subsidy auction. 93 In this case 90% represents the activity requirement which is set by the auctioneer. The FCC in the United States often starts with an activity requirement of 85% or 90% in spectrum auctions and after a certain number of rounds it increases the activity requirement to 95% or higher. The ramping up of the activity requirement trades-off allowing bidders flexibility during the early rounds, when price and package discovery are likely to be of greater value and promoting auction progression, and strategic bidding issues. 94 A clock auction is one in which the auctioneer moves the price (up for ascending, down for descending) for an object in accordance with a clock. For example, the price might decline by $1 every minute. The most famous clock auctions are held in the Netherlands every day for flowers, see https:// www.royalfloraholland.com/en/about-us/who-we-are/royal-floraholland/visit-the-auction In short, a clock auction describes an auction where the auctioneer moves the price. 24 International MRRA 5 case study In chapter 1 section 5 we noted that reverse auctions The Phase I auction, which began on October 29, 2020, for minimum subsidy and universal service funds have and ended on November 25, 2020, awarded support to occurred in several countries, including Chile, Peru, bring broadband to over five million homes and businesses and India. Many of these auctions used the SRA format. in census blocks that were entirely unserved by voice and However, the largest allocation of universal service funds broadband with download speeds of at least 25 Mbits/s. has taken the form of MRRAs, with the largest occurring in Auction 904 involved the disbursement of funds of up to India and the United States.95 In this chapter we focus on USD 16 billion to subsidise broadband rollout. Auction the MRRA format developed and applied by the FCC in the 904, and its smaller precursor Auction 903, was a multiple United States. round reverse clock auction featuring a descending price in which bidders submitted demands for financial support The FCC has pioneered several large-scale reverse over multiple rounds. auctions aimed at promoting universal service in rural broadband services. The experience of the FCC represents Auction 904 invited participants on a technological neutral international best practice. The structure of the MRRA basis and involved important financial and quality of model used by the FCC is flexible, scalable and highly service dimensions, where the latter had assigned weights suited for deployment on an EAP. In the next chapter we reflecting a judgment about performance “Tier” (speed of draw lessons from the FCC’s methods for UCSAF and service) and “Latency” (T+L weights). The motivation for MICIT in Tanzania. assigning weights was to incentivise higher-speed (T) and lower latency (L) services. As we shall discuss, the weights We focus on the MRRA format as applied the FCC Auction serve to favour bidders offering higher speed and lower 904 which took place in 2020. latency. The scale of the auction was immense, with up to USD 16 5.1 FCC Auction 904 – MRRA Clock billion of universal service funding available to support Auction service in over 5 million areas, as shown in Figure 5. One of the largest reverse auctions (by value) for universal service fund allocations in telecommunications has occurred in the United States. The reverse auction was held in relation to the FCC’s management of the Rural Digital Opportunity Fund designed to help bridge the digital divide. On August 1, 2019, the FCC adopted a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking proposing to establish the USD 20.4 billion Rural Digital Opportunity Fund to bring high speed fixed broadband service to rural homes and small businesses that lack it.96 On January 30, 2020, the FCC adopted the Rural Digital Opportunity Fund Report and Order, which established the framework for the Rural Digital Opportunity Fund, building on the success of the Connect America Fund Phase II auction by using reverse auctions in two phases. 95 A good summary of the approach taken to disbursing universal service funds in India using a MRRA format is in Annex 2 in Malik and de Silva (2005). 96 See https://www.fcc.gov/auction/904 25 Figure 5 FCC Auction 904 with over 5 million areas eligible for support The FCC used a descending clock auction format. In each area (or group of areas) a maximum subsidy allowance (reserve price) was set, and the auction started with a ‘percentage price’ multiplied into the reserve prices. The percentage price was common to all areas, and it was the percentage that descended round-to-round whenever the total demand for funds exceeded the available funds. The auction cleared (ended) when demand for support in aggregate was equal to USD 16 billion or less. The auction closed after: • the budget cleared, and • there were no areas remaining with competing bids.97 5.2 Auction 904 – outcome The outcome of the auction resulted in winning bidders receiving funding to deploy high-speed broadband to over 5.2 million unserved homes and businesses. This was a bid success rate of almost 99%, higher than that achieved in any of the UCSAF reverse auctions. A total of 180 bidders won auction support from the 386 qualified bidders that participated. The auction unleashed robust price competition that resulted in more locations being awarded at less cost to Americans who pay into the Universal Service Fund. Some 5,220,833 locations were assigned support in the auction had an initial reserve price of over $26 billion. Competition among bidders over multiple rounds meant that the final price tag to cover the locations was just over $9 billion. Only 56% of the universal service funds USD 16 billion was needed to achieve a near 100% bid success rate. The Chair of the FCC, Ajit Pai, commented about the auction:98 “I’m thrilled with the incredible success of this auction, which brings welcome news to millions of unconnected rural Americans who for too long have been on the wrong side of the digital divide. They now stand to gain access to high-speed, high-quality broadband service. We structured this innovative and ground breaking auction to be technologically neutral and to prioritize bids for high- speed, low-latency offerings. We aimed for maximum leverage of taxpayer dollars and for networks that would meet consumers’ increasing broadband needs, and the results show that our strategy worked. This auction was the single largest step ever taken to bridge the digital divide and is another key success for the Commission in its ongoing commitment to universal service.” 97 Only one bidder could win in each area. 98 Source: https://www.fcc.gov/document/fcc-auction-bring-broadband-over-10-million-rural-americans 26 Lessons for 6 Tanzania There are lessons for Tanzania and other countries from In our view, Tanzania is fully capable of deploying a the success of the FCC’s multi-round universal service MRRA for universal service funding and this could yield auctions. In this brief chapter we highlight the lessons for substantial savings resulting in a more efficient process. In Tanzania. We start by showing that the legal environment the next chapter and in Appendices C and D, we describe in Tanzania is compatible with holding a MRRA. in full the proposed MRRA. We next highlight the experience Tanzania has with conducting online interactive procurement processes and 6.3 Capacity building and education note it has much experience. An extension into a MRRA The application of a MRRA using an EAP will present for universal service funding allocations using an EAP institutional challenges, require capacity building should be possible with sufficient capacity building and and education. For example, the MRRA format used education. by the FCC, as described in the previous chapter, is a comprehensive format that can be tailored and simplified 6.1 Legal framework for application in a pilot in Tanzania. We are confident a MRRA could be conducted in Tanzania. The relevant law governing tender processes for the The agencies that would manage the process, MICIT and disbursement of public subsidies is set out in the Public UCSAF, would need to work closely with stakeholders and Procurement Act 2011 (PPA).99 Section 67 of the PPA others to develop an EAP to host a MRRA. An important deals with competitive tendering asserts: element of the process will be education of participants “all eligible prospective tenderers [will have] an equal and the wider public, as well as briefing key management opportunity to tender for the required works services” in the respective ministries. An online MRRA can be made compliant with this requirement, as all prospective tenderers, or bidders, would be subject to the same auction rules. Note section 6 of the UCSAF (2006) Act allows for the “set the bidding conditions for the awarding of funds”. 6.2 Procurement experience Tanzania has much experience with online interactive e-procurement systems through the Tanzania National e-Procurement System (TANePS). However, we understand this has not been organised to date to host a MRRA across potentially hundreds of lots simultaneously.100 In regard of the pilot that we recommend, we suggest that this could possibly be organised as an independent module linked to TANePS. 99 The Public Procurement Act, 2011 at https://www.tanroads.go.tz/common/uploads/acts/p168205f13169a8d90f5662e0f8fe6ba.pdf 100 TANePS is a web-based, collaborative system, developed in accordance with the requirement of public procurement laws, to facilitate public procurement processes in Tanzania. It offers a secure, interactive, dynamic environment for carrying out procurement of all categories, complex- ity or value. TANePS supports processes of procuring Goods, Works, Consultancy, Non-Consultancy and Disposal of assets. The system supports various public procurement procedures including user registration, tender notification, tender preparation and submission, online tender evalua- tion, contract awarding, creation and management of catalogue, creation and management of framework agreements and auctions and payments. TANePS is managed and developed by European Dynamics. We recommend that the TANePS tool is considered as the front-end to manage a multi- round reverse auction on behalf of UCSAF. See https://www.taneps.go.tz/epps/home.do 27 Steps towards a pilot: multi-round 7 reverse auction – recommendations We propose that MICIT and UCSAF pilot a MRRA Step 2: Estimate maximum allowable delivered over an EAP for the purpose of allocating subsidy for each site universal service funds.101 The recommended steps in MICIT and UCSAF should develop a high-level financial the auction pilot are set out below (a summary of the model populated with data on population density, existing recommendations is shown in Tables 1 and 2 in the mobile network coverage (if any), powerline access, Executive Summary). Appendices C and D set out the fibre access, road access, inbound phone volumes and detailed rules of the auction format to be used in the pilot income levels. The purpose of the financial model is to and Appendix E discusses available EAPs on the market provide a rough estimate of the MAS for each selected that could potentially be deployed in the pilot. site. Setting different values for the MAS across sites may not be possible if UCSAF does not have discretionary powers.103 If UCSAF were to develop a financial model Step 1: Identification of sites and for the purposes of modelling MSA values, it should be number of sites made public and shared with stakeholders to ensure The first step is to identify the sites (based on wards) transparency of the process. An initial model could be suitable for inclusion in the pilot auction. The purpose developed under a consultant contract. Thereafter, of the pilot is to assess the effectiveness and viability of UCSAF should work with other agencies and stakeholders applying a MRRA. As this will be the first time it has been to maintain the financial model. applied in Tanzania for the purpose of allocating universal service funds, limiting the number of sites (wards) to no The financial model is intended as a guide for MICIT and more than 100 would ease the administration of the pilot UCSAF and should not be viewed as a replacement for the for all parties involved (MICIT, UCSAF and bidders). The process of price discovery during the MRRA. In practice, pilot should be for greenfield sites (sites with no or very MICIT and UCSAF should apply conservative values and limited existing mobile coverage).102 err towards overstating the MAS at each site. It is the Recommendation 1 Select up to 100 greenfield sites job of competition and subsidy request reductions in the MRRA to reveal the hidden true costs of service at each Sites should reflect geographic diversity and we site. recommend that they are selected from at least three Recommendation 3 Apply and develop a financial model regions of Tanzania, and ideally from as many regions as to calculate the MAS for each selected site104 possible. Some sites should be selected from Zanzibar. Recommendation 2 Select sites from at least three regions and include Zanzibar 101 A pilot was also used to determine the benefits of extending subsidies to promote mobile phone coverage in Tanzania, see GSMA (2018) “Tanzania rural coverage pilots: Performance report” available at https://www.gsma.com/mobilefordevelopment/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/GSMA_Tan- zania_Report_Jan.pdf 102 The auction format and process could be applied to brownfield sites (sites with limited coverage or only 2G coverage), but the attraction of green- field sites is a higher likelihood of competition. 103 If UCSAF can set different MAS for different wards, these should be based on objective measurable criteria. For example, the MAS may be calculat- ed using a financial methodology that allows each efficient operator at a selected site to enjoy an expected normal rate of return when in receipt of the MAS. The return on investment would be a discounted stream of net revenues over capital employed. Sites in receipt of a UCSAF subsidy MAS would enjoy a higher rate of return. The financial model for each site would seek to identify a MAS that results in an expected ‘normal’ return on capital employed. 104 It is important to note that the MAS in the dynamic multi-round auction case is more akin to a reserve price guide rather than an absolute ceiling. In Appendices C and D the full description of the auction rules and their illustration indicate the possibility that winning bidders may receive more than the MAS value at some sites. 28 Step 3: The budget Step 5: Qualified bidders After completing steps 1 and 2, UCSAF should determine Following the end of the application form process, a budget “B” for the pilot. This should be based on the UCSAF shall announce publicly which applicants have total maximum allowable subsidy (TMAS). The TMAS is attained qualified bidder status. UCSAF shall confirm equal to summation of MAS values across the sites in the in confidential communication with each bidder the list pilot. We recommend that B is set at no more than 95% of of areas the bidder is eligible to bid for. Each notified the estimated TMAS. The expectation is price discovery qualified bidder will only be aware of the sites it has and competition will yield at savings of at least 5% of the expressed an interest in bidding for and not those of other estimated TMAS. qualified bidders. Communication among applicants and Recommendation 4 The budget “B” in each region of the qualified bidders about such matters is prohibited under pilot should be B ≤ 0.95 TMAS the rules of the procurement process. Recommendation 6 Qualified bidder status public If a budget implied by Recommendation 4 is not possible announcement for the 100 sites proposed, then MICIT and UCSAF should reduce lower the total number of sites below 100 by Step 6: Electronic auction platform removing the sites with the highest MAS values. It should UCSAF shall make use of a EAP for the pilot.106 The EAP lower the number of sites until the condition in Step 3 is shall have clear bidder and auctioneer interfaces. UCSAF satisfied. shall provide guidance to qualified bidders in the form of a manual or set of instructions for using the EAP. The EAP The lower the value set for B, the more likely that fewer will be available via a secure server and compatible with sites will be successfully covered in the MRRA. In practice standard Internet browsers. Access by UCSAF officials as MICIT and UCSAF should aim to set B close to and around the auctioneer and by qualified bidders will be password 95% of TMAS. protected and subject to two-factor authentication (or multi-factor authentication), or through the issuance of digital certificates.107 UCSAF should explore the possibility Step 4: Application form and of managing the EAP as an independent module that can pre-qualification be accessed through TANePS. UCSAF shall issue an invitation for interested parties to Recommendation 7 UCSAF shall use a secure EAP hosted apply for qualified bidder status. Qualification shall take on the internet, through acquisition or rental account of technical, financial and competition law criteria. Recommendation 8 UCSAF shall explore the feasibility of Participation need not be restricted to licensed MNOs. using the EAP as an independent module accessible via the For example, tower companies, financial intermediaries TANePS system and others could participate. Where an interested party is not a licensed MNO, it should be required to offer access Step 7: Auction education on a non-discriminatory basis to licensed MNOs to the UCSAF shall supply all qualified bidders access to the UCSAF supported facilities. Interested parties shall inform EAP for training purposes. Following an open bidder UCSAF in their application form which regions they intend information session, one or more mock auctions should to submit bids in and how many sites in each region they be held using hypothetical data for areas and bidders are interested in bidding for – only regions indicated should be assigned scripts to follow in the mock auction.108 in the application form may be bid for by the applicant. The mock auction should be held close to the start of the Applications will remain confidential. For each region and date of the actual auction. Participation by bidders will be the number of sites indicated in the application form, a remote or virtual, and bidders would be anonymised. charge equal to 2% of the highest MAS values in the region Recommendation 9 UCSAF to undertake a bidder could be levied, as a bid security.105 information session, one or more mock auctions, and Recommendation 5 Interested parties are invited to should produce a step-by-step video uploaded to its complete a bid application in response to a call for website explaining the EAP processes expressions of interest 105 The charge amount could differ from 2% and could be subject to a prior public consultation. The levy applied is intended to serve two purposes. First, it incentivises would be participants to list only those sites it has a serious intent on potentially serving. Second, the levy contributes towards UCSAF administrative cost. 106 We set out in Appendix E further details about the EAP. 107 Standard practice for operating EAPs is such that client connections are encrypted, and authentication of individual users is managed through digital certificates and passwords. Logging of each and every interaction between auction bidders and the auction software provides for a complete digital audit trail. Real-time diagnostics allows the auctioneer to detect Internet problems that might affect the running of an auction. Back-up is automated. Communication via messaging should be possible within the EAP. 108 Bidders in the mock auctions will follow instructions in accordance with a script provided by UCSAF. The intention is to allow participants to famil- iarise themselves with the process. 29 Step 8: Auction Step 10: Auction impact evaluation UCSAF shall run the reverse auction on the EAP allowing After step 9, UCSAF shall undertake a public consultation multiple rounds where bidders submit bids remotely. conducting an impact evaluation of the multi-round Appendix C describes the rules of the auction that should reverse auction pilot. UCSAF should engage with be reflected in full in the EAP. UCSAF should investigate stakeholders and seek to draw lessons for future auction whether auction regulations are required processes. Recommendation 10 UCSAF to run auction on EAP Recommendation 12 UCSAF to conduct an impact evaluation of the pilot multi-round reverse auction Step 9: Auction results and public announcement After completion of the auction process, UCSAF shall announce publicly by notice on their website the names of bidders who have won subsidies, the sites covered, and the amount universal service funds allocated in the process. UCSAF shall also make public by publishing on its website the full auction round data, subject to commercial confidentiality conditions. Recommendation 11 UCSAF to announce winners and publish auction results 30 8 Next steps We are recommending that Tanzania pilots a MRRA for the purpose of allocating universal service funds. This process should start in 2023/24. In the previous chapter we set out our recommendations that should enable the relevant agencies, and UCSAF in particular, to achieve this goal. In Table 13 below we bring together the main tasks required to facilitate and conclude the process. Item Task Owner Undertake to complete a multi-round reverse 1 auction using an electronic auction platform during UCSAF with support from EAP vendor 2023 Scope out the feasibility of using an EAP as an 2 independent module accessible on the TANePS UCSAF with manager of TANePS platform Develop high-level financial model to inform MAS 3 UCSAF in consultation with MNOs values 4 Capacity building in UCSAF UCSAF and donor agencies 5 Stakeholder engagement UCSAF with other relevant agencies (e.g. TCRA) Detailed workplan for implementing the multi- 6 UCSAF and WB round reverse auction Wider assessment of the feasibility of multi-round 7 procurement auctions in Tanzania and in other MFP and WB countries Table 13 Next steps in the multi-round reverse auction process 8.1 Wider lessons This study and report have looked specifically at the application of a MRRA for the allocation of universal service funds in the communications sector in Tanzania. It specifically focuses on supporting the development of mobile services and extending their coverage. We believe that the auction pilot provides an important foundation for application in other sectors and in other WB lending programs. Tanzania should consider the feasibility of using a MRRA format for other programmes involving the allocation of subsidies. This is addressed as Task 7 in Table 13. An example would be the installation of access to the Internet via fixed telecommunications providers. The WB should explore the feasibility of applying the auction format considered in this report in other projects, such as the proposed Digital Malawi Phase II (P160533), where the main focus is on fixed broadband extension in secondary cities and rural areas, and connecting schools. 31 Although we have emphasised throughout the report that the MRRA offers scope for greater efficiency by promoting price discovery and more competition, it should be borne in mind that no procurement format is a perfect solution and disappointments can occur. For example, for commercial or political reasons, participants may fail to show for whatever reason. The proposed MRRA promises more engagement and transparency and sets out a successful new order at best, though there are still plenty of risks related to administrative capacity, or to creating and maintaining full bidder attention and support. The MRRA we propose, if organized well and if the various stakeholders support it, promises to have a chance of bringing the key participants to the table and to improve on the past hit rate. Evidence of its application suggests that considerable benefits are possible from applying MRRAs on an EAP for allocating universal service funds. 32 Appendix A Telecommunication Operators In Tanzania Operator, service Description launched AirTel – 2001 AirTel Tanzania Limited is the third-largest telecommunications company in Tanzania by number of customers. The company is part of AirTel Africa, a pan-African mobile network operator and the largest mobile service provider in Africa outside of South Africa, active in 14 countries on the continent. AirTel Africa plc is majority owned by the Indian communication services company Bharti AirTel. In 2019 an agreement between Bharti AirTel and the Government of Tanzania resulted in a shareholding of 51% Bharti AirTel and 49% Government of Tanzania. Previously the split in ownership was 60% in favour of Bharti AirTel and 40% Government of Tanzania. As of March 2023, AirTel Tanzania is the second largest MNO with 17.05 million subscribers, some 27.6% share of mobile subscribers. Predecessor brands are Zain and Celtel Azam – 2018 Azam Telecom (T) Limited acquired 2x10 MHz for a total price of US$10 million in June 2018. The company is part of the Bakhresa Group of Companies (BGC) owned by Said Salim Bakhresa. Under the terms of the auction, the spectrum frequency licence issued stipulates coverage obligations that by end 2021, population coverage for broadband services meeting the specified quality of service level should be equal to 60%; and by end of year 2024, population coverage should be equal to 90%. Service is not yet available. Company operates in digital terrestrial television space. Halotel – 2015 Trading name of Viettel Tanzania Public Limited Company, providing voice, messaging, data and communication services. Owned by Viettel Global JSC, a state-owned investment company from Vietnam. The company has placed over 18,000 km of optical fiber cabling.109 Viettel started in Tanzania in 2011 and planned $736 million in investment after the then president Jakaya Kikwete made a state visit to Vietnam.110 The government wanted to encourage rural mobile connectivity and by allowing Viettel to operate in the country it facilitated more competition. According to (Anyanzwa 2019)111 Halotel operates in a specific niche, targeting rural areas with low-cost products and services. The licence granted to Halotel required the company to invest in fibre-cable rollout across the country before it could build in cities. As of March 2023, Halotel had 8.15 million subscribers amounting to a 13.2% share of all subscribers. 109 See https://halotel.co.tz/ 110 Source: http://viettelglobal.vn/halotel-becomes-driver-of-tanzanias-socio-economic-development.html 111 Anyanzwa, J. (2019). ‘Party Call: Telecoms in East Africa Set for Mergers, Acquisitions’. The East African, 29 May. Available at: https://www.theeas- tafrican.co.ke/business/Telecoms-in-EastAfrica-set-for-mergers-acquisitions/2560-5136200-10k196iz/index.html 34 Operator, service Description launched Smart – 2014-19 Smart Telecom launched in 2014 and shut down in 2019 after submitting a business closure request to the TCRA. The company officially closed its business in June 2019. ‘Smart’ started its operations in Tanzania after it acquired what used to be known as Benson Informatics. ‘Smart’ was a partnership between Industrial Promotion Services (IPS) Kenya (a division of the Aga Khan Fund for Economic Development) and Cyprus-based, Russian-owned Timeturns Holdings (49%). It launched its network in March 2014, utilizing the existing nationwide technology-neutral mobile licence awarded in 2009 to CDMA operator Benson Informatics and switched on a 4G LTE service in August 2015. ‘Smart’ managed to raise its customer numbers from only 528 subscribers it had inherited from Benson Informatics as of June 2015. TCRA figures show that in October 2015, ‘Smart’ reached its peak, with a total of 1,800,169 subscribers, accounting for 4% of the market share of 38 million subscribers at the time. Subscriber volumes declined after 2015, reaching 1,385,390 subscribers in January 2016 before going further down to 853,390 in October 2016 and further dropping to 132,404 in March 2019. Smile – 2013 Smile Communication Tanzania Ltd (Smile TZ) was registered in July 2009 and began commercial operations in May 2013. The company is a subsidiary of Smile Telecoms Holdings. Smile’s first country of operation in Africa was in Tanzania and it was the first company to launch commercial 4G LTE services, starting in Dar es Salaam. Today its coverage extends to regions covering the largest cities. Smile Telecoms Holdings Limited is a private company limited by shares incorporated under the laws of Mauritius with head office in London, England. As of March 2023, Smile was the smallest mobile operator with only 15,171 subscribers (mainly business), amounting to a 0.01% share of all subscribers. Tigo – 1994 Tigo started as a joint-venture between Millicom International Cellular (MIC) based in Luxembourg, Ultimate Communications Limited of Tanzania, a private company, and Tanzania Posts and Telecommunications Corporation owned by the government. In February 2004, MIC’s parent company Millicom International Cellular took over the 26% stake held by the government to then control 84% of the company’s equity. In 2006 MIC bought out the remaining 15.9% held by Ultimate to have 100% ownership.112 In April 2022 MIC announced it was divesting its entire holding of MIC Tanzania which had also merged with Zantel (see below) to pan-African group Axian and Tanzanian entrepreneur Rostam Azizi in a deal worth around $100 million.113 As of March 2023 Tigo is the third largest operator with 16.6 million subscribers, amounting to a 26.8% share of all subscribers. Predecessor brands were Mobitel, Simu Poa, Buzz 112 Source: https://www.commsupdate.com/articles/2012/04/24/government-to-launch-probe-into-tigo-tanzanias-ownership-paper-says/ 113 Mr. Rostam Azizi is a wealthy individual who is said also to own around 18% of Tanzania Vodacom (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rostam_Aziz) See also: https://www.barrons.com/articles/millicom-tigo-completes-multi-year-africa-exit-with-tanzania-sale-01649163970 35 Operator, service Description launched TTCL – 1994 (mobile) Tanzania Telecommunication Corporations formerly known as Tanzania Telecommunications Company Limited (TTCL) was established by an Act of Parliament ‘The Tanzania Telecommunications Company Incorporation Act of 1993’. The Company came into operation following a split of the former parastatal organisation known as Tanzania Posts and Telecommunications Company (TP&TC) and began operations on January 1, 1994. Subsequent to continued economic liberalization policy of the Government of Tanzania, TTCL was privatized in February 2001, where a Consortium of MSI of the Netherlands (Celtel) and Detecon of Germany acquired 35% shares of the company from the Government of Tanzania. In September 2013 Celtel’s Parent Company MTC Group was acquired by Zain International BV of Kuwait. Along with the Celtel brand, Zain also acquired the 35% share in TTCL. From the 2005 agreement Celtel and TTCL were considered separate legal entities and Zain had no direct control over the companies’ operations. In June 2010, Bharti AirTel purchased mobile operations in 15 African countries from Zain and inherited the stake. In 2016, Bharti AirTel agreed to sell its 35% shareholding back to the Government of Tanzania and TTCL is wholly owned by the Government. As of December 2021 TTCL had 1.8 million subscribers, amounting to a 3.4% share of all mobile subscribers. The main focus of TTCL is overseeing the government’s national fibre network NICTBB. The high capacity fibre ring is part of the National ICT policy. TTCL also provides a fixed network service serving around 75,000 lines. As of March 2023 TTCL had 1.5 million mobile subscribers, amounting to a 2.4% share of all subscribers. Figure 6 NICTBB Network Map114 Vodacom – 2000 The company was created in late 1999 as a subsidiary company of Vodacom based in South Africa. Vodacom Tanzania was a joint venture between the Vodacom Group, with approximately 65 percent, with the remaining 35 percent owned by Tanzanian shareholders. Vodacom Tanzania announced officially its commercial operations in August 2000 and became the largest mobile operator in the country within one year of launch. It remains the largest mobile communications network operator in Tanzania. Vodacom Tanzania was licensed in Tanzania with its local partners Planetel Communications holding 36% and Caspian Construction holding 16%. Later Planetel decreased its stake to 16%, while Caspian’s increased to 19%. Vodacom Tanzania was listed on the Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange on 15 August 2017. Vodacom Tanzania and its subsidiaries (together ‘the Group’) are majority owned by Vodacom Group Limited (75% holding), which in turn is majority owned (about 60%) by the Vodafone Group based in the United Kingdom. As of March 2023 Vodacom was the largest mobile operator with 18.6 million subscribers, amounting to a 30.0% share of all subscribers. 114 Source: http://www.nictbb.co.tz/map.php 36 37 Operator, service Description launched Zantel – 1999 (2005 Zantel is the brand of Zanzibar Telecom Limited which started in 1999 with a minority on the mainland). Since shareholding held by Etisalat (Emirates Telecommunications Corporation) headquartered in 2021 merged with Tigo Abu Dhabi. and re-branded as Tigo In 2006 Etisalat became the majority owner with a 51% share and by 2014 had a 65% share. Of the remaining 35%, Meeco International of Tanzania owned 17% of Zantel and the government of Zanzibar, a semi-autonomous nation in a political union with Tanzania, held 18% of Zantel. In 2015 Millicom International Cellular (MIC) announced that, having received the necessary regulatory approval, it had acquired an 85% stake in Zanzibar Telecom (Zantel) with the government of Zanzibar retaining 15%. In April 2022 MIC announced it was divesting its entire holding of MIC Tanzania including Tigo (see above) and Zantel to pan-African group Axian and Tanzanian entrepreneur Rostam Azizi. As of March 2022 Zantel’s subscriptions have been combined with Tigo. As of December 2021 Zantel had 1.1 million subscribers, amounting to a 2.0% share of all subscribers at that date.115 115 TCRA (2021) “COMMUNICATIONS STATISTICS Quarter 2 - 2021/2022 December 2021” at https://www.tcra.go.tz/uploads/text-editor/files/ Communications%20Statistics%20December%202021%20(1)_1645554800.pdf 38 Appendix B Government agencies in the communications space Organization Governance and policy objectives UCSAF – 2006 The Universal Communications Service Access Fund The UCSAF was established under the Universal Communications Service Access Act 2006.116 Under the Act, the Minister responsible for communications published Regulations which govern the operations of the Fund came into force in April 2009. The Fund has a Ten (10) Member Board which was inaugurated in October 2010. Towards achieving a vision of: “Achieve fully accessible and equitable communication services in Tanzania” the Universal Communications Service Access Fund (UCSAF) aims to strengthen the capacity to partner with telecommunications service providers in the country to ensure availability of communication services in rural and urban under-served areas. UCSAF is focused on Identifying areas that may be subsidized with funds of the Fund or that qualify for allocation of subsidy by the Fund; with the aim of ensuring that all citizens have access to communication services that can contribute significantly to the economy of individuals and the country. Section 6 of the UCSAF (2006) Act allows for the “set the bidding conditions for the awarding of funds”. The UCSAF is funded by a universal service levy on communications licensees based on gross turnover, not exceeding 1.5%. Additionally, funds may derive from the government and other entities, such as World Bank lending programmes. Since inception 1,235 wards have received UCSAF public support to extend mobile communication services. As of September 2021, 829 were completed and the construction of towers in 406 wards was underway. Some 12.9 million people in 3,292 villages have benefitted from the projects. Since 2012, 11 award processes for public support have taken place.117 116 See https://www.ucsaf.go.tz/uploads/documents/en-1632143155-SHERIA%20ZA%20MFUKO.pdf 117 Reported in the East African 18-24 September 2021 at https://www.ucsaf.go.tz/uploads/press_releases/en1654515343-EA%20-%20Tele- comm%20Day%20(3)%20final%20copy.pdf 39 TCRA – 2003 Tanzania Communications Regulatory Authority The Tanzania Communications Regulatory Authority (TCRA) is a governmental body responsible for managing the telecommunications, broadcasting and postal sectors in Tanzania. It was established by the Tanzania Communications Authority Act No. 12 of 2003 to manage electronic and postal services and communication frequencies in the United Republic of Tanzania. The Authority came into operation on November 1, 2003 combining the former Tanzania Communications Commission (TCC) and the Tanzania Broadcasting Commission (TBC). The main strategic objectives of the TCRA are: • To modernize TCRA activities using appropriate technology; strengthen quality research into controlled services, staff capacity and competence. • Promoting efficiency; reliability and ensuring the security of the communication infrastructure and its use. • To promote the efficiency and affordability of telecommunications services and increase access to postal and ICT services in areas that are not adequately serviced and those that are without services. • Protect stakeholders’ interests and promote awareness of their rights and responsibilities. • Monitor the performance of managed services and ensure compliance with the Laws and Regulations to the appropriate standards. • Coordinate the implementation of national, regional and international sector commitments. Fair Competition Established under the Fair Competition Act (FCA) of 2003 Commission (FCCT) – Through the powers conferred upon it by the FCA, the FCC deals with all issues of anti- 2003 competitive conduct, abuse of dominance and has provision for curtailing mergers and acquisitions if the outcome is likely to create dominance in the market or lead to uncompetitive behavior. It also carries the consumer protection regime administered by a department at arms-length with the Commission. The adjudications of consumer related cases are done in courts. The FCC is given powers to gather information, to conduct investigations and to impose sanctions for violations of the law. Its power in regard of communications is concurrent with the TCRA. Bank of Tanzania (BoT) Bank of Tanzania (BoT) – 1966 The Bank of Tanzania is the Central Bank of the United Republic of Tanzania established by the Bank of Tanzania Act of 1965. It became operational on 14th June 1966. The legal and regulatory framework that governs mobile payments in Tanzania includes the Bank of Tanzania Act 2006 (S. 6) (“the BoT Act”), section 6. Since 2012 the BoT has taken a progressive approach to designing a regulatory framework that has considerably contributed to the growth of a competitive market where MNOs are contributing to the progression of electronic finance systems. National Payment Systems (NPS) Act 2015 to regulate the Payment Systems (NPS) and promote sound banking and financial system that includes the payments, clearing and settlement systems conducive to the development of the national economy. The Act is further supported by the powers under the Bank of Tanzania Act 2006 which broadly allows the Bank to supervise the payment systems services and products offered by both banks and non-bank institutions. The Bank of Tanzania issues circulars and guidelines to ensure that the payment systems operations in the country are running smoothly. Various stakeholders are also involved in the formulation of payment systems Acts and Regulations. 40 Appendix C Auction format: multi-round reverse clock auction detailed rules In this appendix we set out in detail the rules of the MRRA delivered via an EAP to be piloted in Tanzania. The model described here is comprehensive and should probably be simplified for application in the Tanzanian context. For example, MRRA could be applied without weights (see below) and could also be applied without package bids (also described below). These simplifications are easy to implement and would result in a more straightforward auction, require less capacity building and less bidder education. On the other hand, such simplifications are likely to reduce the potential for price discovery to be fully effective. To keep things simple, we recommend that the format is applied separately across each of the regions identified in the pilot. It is presumed at the beginning of the auction that demand for funds exceeds the budget in each region. The reverse auction format proposed is a multi-round auction taking place in each region. The auctioneer controls the price level in the auction by announcing a clock percentage price point that decreases round-by- round. The clock percentage price point multiplies into the MAS or reserve prices of areas in a region and depending on bids expressed, this is used to elicit whether demand for funds exceeds budget available. As the clock percentage price point declines, the reverse auction in a region will reach a round when the budget clears for a region, i.e. when demand for funds is no greater than the budget available. This occurs in the round in which the estimated total cost of the bids (demand for funds) at the current round’s clock percentage is no greater than the budget assigned to the region. In the round which clears a region, the areas in the region will be assigned to winning bidders. Any unassigned areas for which bidders have expressed bids will, after the clearing round, be subject to further rounds of bidding until these have also been assigned.118 Once all bids have been processed in a region and the budget exhausted, the auction ends. C.1. Before the auction starts 1. To participate in the auction applicants must qualify by meeting criteria set out by policy maker e.g. licensed telco, tower company, years of experience, etc. This is achieved by completing a detailed pre-qualification form. The purpose of pre-qualification is to assess the technical and managerial competency and financial soundness of the interested bidders. This feature is typical in all universal service fund award schemes. 2. To qualify for the auction, applicants must specify which regions they are interested in bidding to supply service and the total number of areas119 in each region they are interested in bidding to supply service. If an applicant qualifies as a bidder, it is allowed only to bid in regions specified on their application form. The information about regions and areas supplied by each applicant will not be made public until after the conclusion of the auction. 3. Applicants must specify the service category for each region it intends to submit bids for. It is possible to specify multiple categories of service.120 A weighting system is used based on the category of mobile generation (G) and the category of infrastructure sharing (S): the total weight of a bidder in a region will comprise each G+S on their application form. The purpose of the weight is to favour 4G over 3G and to favour infrastructure sharing that minimises competition related issues. 118 As described below, such further rounds will involve carry-forward bids. 119 The applicant only needs to indicate how many areas in a region and does not need to name areas. For example, suppose region A has 10 areas. The applicant could indicate it is interested in bidding on up to 5 areas in region A. If the applicant qualifies to bid, it can bid on any areas in region A but may not present more than five areas in its bids in any round during the auction. In accordance with recommendation 5 in chapter 7, the bidder would need to pay an application fee of 2% multiplied into the five highest MAS values in the region. For example, suppose the MAS values were 10 for eight wards and 20 for two wards. The application fee for indicating five sites would be 2% × [20+20+10+10+10]=1.4. 120 A simplified version of the auction would set out uniform service and not require the application of weights as set out here. 41 • 4G has a G=0 weight • 3G has a G=20 weight • Infrastructure sharing (Multi Operator Radio Access Network (MORAN)) has a S=0 weight • Multi Operator Core Network (MOCN) sharing has a S=10 weight • Non-infrastructure sharing has a S=30 weight 4. Each area in a region has a reserve price R (i.e. a maximum allowable subsidy (MAS) in an area) that is pre- determined by consultation with stakeholders and through financial modelling and/or benchmarking. The level of R per area in each region will be made clear on the pre-qualification form. C.2. Bidding rules 5. The auctioneer announces at the start of each round in each region a clock price point percentage P. 6. The opening clock price point percentage P in the auction is equal to the largest 100+G+S indicated in the qualified applicants’ bidding forms at pre-qualification. 7. A bidder may submit a bid during a round from round 2 onwards at the clock price point percentage announced or at another price point percentage between the clock percentage in the round and the previous round’s clock percentage (up to two decimal points). If the previous round clock price percentage were 150 and the current round is clock price percentage is 140, a bidder could, for example, submit a bid at a price percentage 145.97 for an area or group of areas in a package bid (see below). The bidder is allowed to attach different price percentages to multiple bids submitted in a region in the same round. For example, a bidder might bid at 145.97 for area A and 140 for area B. 8. The auctioneer sets the clock price point percentage P in round 1 at a decrement no lower than 5 than the opening P. If the opening P were 130, the auctioneer might set the round 1 price point percentage at 120. 9. The implied support for a bid in an area is given by the formula: , here P is for a given price point percentage expressed by the bidder that may equal the clock price point percentage announced by the auctioneer or be at a higher price point percentage up to the previous round’s clock price point percentage. A bidder with positive weights (G+S>0) against a bidder with zero weighting (G+S=0) will receive less support. This provides an incentive to compete with a lower weight and may also reflect lower costs. 10. The bidder’s total implied support for its bids at the round’s clock percentage cannot exceed the budget for the region. 11. If the auction does not clear in the most recent round, the auction will carry forward all the bids that were submitted at the clock percentage price into the current round from the previous round. Bidders may express new bids for an area that they bid for in the previous round at a lower percentage price point than the clock percentage price in the previous round; these new bids override carry-forward bids.121 12. The auctioneer determines a decrement in P in the current round in each region after round 1 whenever the maximum implied support bid for each area in a region exceeds the budget B available in the region at the price point percentage in the previous round. (This calculation is shown further in a numerical example in Appendix D.) Typically the decrement would lie be between 5 and 20. 13. A bidder can submit a bid for an individual area in a region in a round but cannot submit more individual bids than the total number of areas expressed for the region on the bidder’s application form. 14. A bidder can submit a package bid for a group of areas in a region in a round, but the areas included in a package bid cannot feature in any other package bid or individual bid made by the bidder in the same round. All areas in a package bid must be expressed at the same G+S.122 15. In a package bid, the bidder must apply a minimum scale percentage (MSP). The MSP states that any subset of areas in the package can only be assigned to the bidder if the sum of the reserve prices for the subset as a percentage of the total of reserve prices for all areas in the package exceeds the MSP. The auctioneer may impose a maximum figure for the MSP at or below 100% before the start of the auction, e.g. 75%. Subject to the maximum MSP, a bidder may vary its MSP attached to a package bid across different rounds. The idea of the MSP is to provide a bidder with protection against being exposed to the risk of winning a small subset of its package bid – the presumption being synergies (cost savings and/or revenue yield) across the package may be considerable. 16. If a bidder submits a bid for an area in an earlier round, the bidder must attach the same G+S in the current round to the same area as in the earlier round. 17. The price point in a bid must not be less than G+S+1. Thus, the implied support amount must be at least 1% of the area’s R to be acceptable. 121 If bidders were to stop bidding in round n, the auction would clear, and assignment would be based on a percentage price lying between the rounds n and n+1. 122 A simplified version of the auction could be undertaken without package bids. However, packaging allows bidders to better tailor their demands. 42 C.3. Activity rules 18. A bidder’s activity is the total of the implied support for all of the bidder’s bids in a round. 19. If the clearing round has not occurred, a bidder’s activity cannot exceed the activity in the previous round.123 If a bidder’s activity in round 5 were 250, the bidder cannot exceed this activity in round 6 and any other future round. 20. If the clearing round has not occurred, a bidder’s activity for areas not included in the previous round cannot exceed a maximum percentage M of the bidder’s total implied support at the previous round’s clock percentage. An auction for a region with 10 areas has a clock percentage 70% in round 3, decreasing from the clock percentage 80% in the previous round. If a bidder submits a package bid with zero weight at the clock percentage 70% for areas {1,2,3,4} and submits a bid for area 10 with zero weight at percentage price 75%, the total implied support at the clock percentage is defined by the sum of the reserve prices for areas 1,2,3 and 4 multiplied by the clock percentage, say 400×0.7=280. (The bidder’s activity is 280+0.75×100=355, where 100 is the reserve price for area 10.) In round 4 the bidder’s activity cannot exceed 355, and the bidder cannot bid on any area or areas in {5,6,7,8,9} if the bidder’s activity for these bids is greater than M×280. If M=10%, this implies the bidder cannot switch bids where the activity exceeds 28. 21. The value of M in round 2 will be determined by the auctioneer and announced to qualified bidders at the start of the auction. The auctioneer will start with a value for M in round 2 no higher than 30 and will not set a value for M below 10 in any subsequent round. The value of M in the current round for any round from 3 onwards will not be above the value of M in the prior round. 22. After the clearing round no switching is allowed. A bidder can only bid for an area that it bid for in the clearing round at the percentage clock price and the area is unassigned. 23. After the clearing round a bidder can only bid for a package if it is the same or a subset of a package for which it bid at the previous round’s clock percentage and the area does not contain any areas that have been assigned. 24. After the clearing round partially assigned packages having one unassigned area are such that bidders can only bid for the area individually.124 C.4. Processing the clearing round 25. The clearing round occurs when the maximum demand for support across all areas measured at the clock percentage is no greater than the budget available.125 The auction should follow a process in the clearing round in the following order: • Determine which areas are to be assigned to winning bidders with any remaining any areas being unassigned and open to further bidding in subsequent rounds.126 • Calculate the clearing price point as the highest price point not exceeding the clock percentage in the previous round, taking account of second prices, such that the total support amount is no greater than the budget. • Allocate the support payment for each assigned area using a second-price rule. • If the clearing price point equals the previous round’s clock percentage, any carried-forward bids from the previous round are assessed for possible assignment. 26. Determining the assignment of areas: bids should be assessed in order of ascending price. Bids at the same price point are assessed in order of ascending G+S weight. Ties should be broken by applying pseudo random numbers.127 An area can be assigned if, at a given G+S weight, it has not previously been assigned and if no other bidder bid for it at the round’s clock percentage at the same or lower G+S weight. An area can be assigned if, given other areas already assigned and the price point of the bid, the cost of the area assignment does not result in total aggregate cost (see (a)-(c) below) exceeding the budget for the region. If the bid is part of a package bid, the areas that are available to be assigned meet the MSP. All bids are processed, even if the budget does not allow an assignment. 123 Delaying bids by a bidder to discover something about the demand of other bidders is therefore costly for the bidder as it necessarily lowers activi- ty and restricts future bidding options. 124 Suppose bidder 1 bid for a package including areas {1,2,4} and bidder 2 bid for area 4 in round n. Clearing occurs in round n and areas 1 and 2 are assigned to bidder 1 and areas 3 and 4 are unassigned. Area 4 can be bid for individually and no bidder can submit a package bid including area 3 with area 4. 125 It is measured at the clock percentage as this reflects the demand for funds at the lowest level of support announced. If all the bidders in a region were to bid for support above the clock percentage, then the auction would clear as demand for funds at the clock percentage would be zero. 126 Carried-forward bids ensure unassigned areas are assigned should no further bids be received. 127 Pseudo random numbers are generated by algorithms that provide near random number generation. 43 The system calculates the aggregate cost at a given price point P as:128 • For areas not yet assigned that were bid at the clock percentage, the implied support amounts at the clock percentage counting each area once at the costliest scenario, i.e. at the lowest weighted bid. • For all areas already assigned and received no other bids less than P, the support amounts implied by P. • For all areas already assigned which received other bids below P, the support amounts implied by the greater of the price point bid by the bidder receiving the assignment and the lowest price point at which any other bidder bid for the area. Example Here we illustrate how the aggregate cost is estimated. Assume the budget is $220 and there are six areas 1,2,3,4,5 and 6. There are two bidders who submit bids of weight G+S=0. In round 9 the auction clock percentage is 75% and in round 8 it was 80%. Table 14 below shows the bids submitted in round 9. Bidder 1 at G+S=0 Bidder 2 at G+S=0 1 at 75% Package bid {4,5,6} at 76% with MSP 50% 2 at 75% 3 at 77% Table 14 Evaluating aggregate cost Round 9 clears the auction as the aggregate cost of bids at the clock percentage 75% is $150<$240 budget. The bids submitted at the round clock percentage 75% are considered first. Areas 1 and 2 are assigned to bidder 1 as there are no other bids at the clock percentage for these areas. Bidder 2’s bid is considered next as the percentage price point increases to 76%. At this price percentage, the estimated aggregate cost of the package bid is $228, plus the cost of the areas assigned to bidder 1 at 76% is $154. The total cost is therefore $382>$240. Hence the package bid areas cannot be assigned together. Allocating any two areas in the package bid also leads to excess demand for funds. Allocating any one area in the package bid fails the MSP constraint. Bidder 1’s bid for area 3 is considered next at 77%.The aggregate cost of areas 1 and 2 that have already been assigned at 77% is $154. The cost of the bid for area 3 is $77. The total cost is therefore $231 which is below the budget of $240. Thus area 3 is assigned to bidder 1. All bids have been processed and the given percentage price point P=77% is below the clock percentage 80% of round 8. Hence, there are no carried-forward bids to consider and the auction proceeds to calculating P*. Each assigned of the three areas has a cost [(P-0)/100]×100, so aggregate cost is 3×P. P* must be no greater than 80% and no less than 77%. It is the highest value within the range permitted that allows funds to be disbursed without exceeding the budget $240. Therefore 3P≤240 implies P*=80%. 27. Calculating the clearing price point: Once the system has computed which bids in the clearing round have been assigned it calculates what is called the clearing price point P*. This is the highest P (rounded to 0.01%) that is no greater than the previous round’s clock percentage such that the aggregate cost is no greater than the budget. 28. Support payment determination for bids submitted in the round: For areas assigned to a bidder in the clearing round that received no other bids below P*, the support payment is the amount implied by P*. In our numerical example in Appendix D, areas 2, 4 and 5 are all assigned with support payments determined at P* – as each of these areas did not receive a bid below P* from a non-winning bidder. For areas which did receive bids from other bidders below P*, the support payment is based on the G+S of the assigned bid and then the greater of (1) that implied by the price point bid by the winning bidder and (2) the support implied by the lowest price point at which any other bidder bid. In our example, area 3 is assigned to bidder 1 in the clearing round, having bid at 90% at weight G+S=0. However, in the clearing round bidder 3 with weight 20 bid at P=95<P*=95.56. 128 The key here is the assumption that the value of P is given. Thus, for any given P the system calculates according to the instructions shown in (a)-(c). In a numerical example in Appendix D we expand on this point. 44 Therefore the determined support payment for bidder 1 is 95%×20=19.129 29. If the clearing price point P* is less than the previous round’s clock percentage, bid processing ends and no carried-forward bids are considered. Otherwise, when P* equals the clock percentage of the previous round, the carried-forward bids of the previous round would be processed. 30. After the clearing round: if there are areas that have not been assigned there will be further rounds if funds permit this. For example, areas unassigned include any that received multiple bids at the clock percentage in the clearing round. This latter point means that bids carried-forward or new bids made will be processed in ascending order of their G+S weight first, then percentage price.130 C.5. Information policy 31. The information made available to bidders is critical to the success of the auction. As is conventional in well- designed modern multi-round auctions, the identity of eligible bidders is kept anonymous until the auction process has finally ended. Thus eligible bidders will be assigned anonymous labels. Eligible bidders will only know that should an auction take place in a region, there is more demand for subsidies than funds available. 32. Limiting information about participants is intended to minimise gaming. In other words, bidders should focus on submitting bids that reflect their estimates of required support amounts, rather than place bids based on that they perceive other bidders are doing.131 33. It is in the interest of the auctioneer to reveal as much information about demand for support payments as possible without compromising the competitive integrity of the auction. The purpose is to facilitate price and package discovery which is desirable for efficiency. Tables 15-17 below summarise the information disclosed to each bidder during every round up to and including the clearing round. Within round information policy Description A. Clock percentage The opening clock percentage in each region is made public before the auction starts. Before the start of each round, the clock percentage for the round is shown to all bidders participating in the bidding in a region B. Implied support for bids The total sum of the implied support amounts across all the bidder’s submitted in a region bids in each region in a round C. Implied support for bids The total sum of the implied support amounts across all the bidder’s submitted at the clock percentage in bids made at the round clock percentage in each region – where C≤B for each a region region D. Areas bid in each region The number of areas bid in each region by the bidder E. Areas at the clock The number of areas bid in each region by the bidder at the round clock percentage in each region percentage for the region F. Maximum region activity The total amount of implied support the bidder may submit in the round for each region based on activity in each region in the previous round. In each region, the number of areas in the bidder’s bids cannot exceed the number of areas listed on their application form G. Switching areas activity For each region the maximum activity allowed for bids on areas not bid for in the constraint previous round based as a percentage of bids submitted in the previous round’s clock percentage Table 15 Within round information policy 129 This requirement ensures that the payment is always equal to the second price bid if the budget allows. Although bidder 3 in our example below bid overall less when account is taken of its weight 20, the second price is calculated by expressing any lower bid at an equivalent weight to the winning bidder. Had bidder 3 submitted a bid at P below P* but above that of bidder 1 (e.g., bidder 3 say bid at 92% with a weight of 20, the round would still clear and the implied support payment for bidder 1 would have been determined as 97%×20=18.4 and the clearing price point P*=96.57). Note that the higher value for P* arises because bidder 3 demands less support at 92% and hence less budget is provided to bidder 1 for area 3, leaving a residual that can be allocated across other areas. 130 Note this is the reverse of the sequencing order in the clearing round. 131 It is well understood in auction theory that truthful bidding is more likely to result in efficient outcomes in a well-designed auction process. 45 34. After the completion of a round before the clearing round. Table 16 below indicates the information policy in regard of each bidder. End of round information policy Description A. Area demand bids Number of bids for every area in each region in which the bidder is eligible to bid, expressed as 0,1,2, etc. The bidder may receive information about areas for which it is ineligible to submit bids. B. Lowest weight In each region in which the bidder is eligible to bid, for the areas which received 1 or more bids the lowest G+S weight amongst those bids C. Aggregate cost In each region in which the bidder is eligible to bid, the difference between the aggregate cost at the clock round percentage and the region’s budget (this provides a useful indication of the likelihood of the next round being a clearing round for a region) Table 16 End of round information policy 35. At some round during the auction the auctioneer will announce in a region the clearing round. The information policy in regard of each region for each bidder in the clearing round and thereafter is shown in Table 17 below. Clearing round and subsequent Description rounds information policy A. Areas unassigned At the end of the clearing round in a region those areas which have not yet been assigned e.g. as a result of multiple bids at the same G+S lowest weight (taking account of any carried-forward bids) B. Areas assigned At the end of the clearing round the areas in a region that have been assigned (at this stage each bidder would know areas it has been assigned but will not know who has been assigned other areas that have been assigned) C. Minimum assigned support At the end of the clearing round, for each area assigned, a bidder will know the minimum implied support which will be no less than the bidder’s demand for support D. Maximum assigned support At the end of the clearing round, for each area not yet assigned, bidders will know the maximum implied support available E. The clearing point After processing all the bids at the end of the clearing round, announce the percentage clearing point percentage F. The clock percentage For areas not yet assigned, the clock percentage will be announced for the round after the clearing round and in each round thereafter until such areas have been assigned Table 17 Clearing round and subsequent rounds information policy 36. Once all areas have been assigned and subsidies calculated, the auctioneer shall make public the information about the winning bids. Appendix D provides a detailed numerical example illustrating how these rules could work in practice. 46 Appendix D: Numerical illustration of multi-round reverse auction 1. The way the auction format works is illustrated in a simple numerical example below. 2. There are five areas available in a region which has been allocated a total funding budget of B=85. The support available in each area cannot exceed the maximum allowable subsidy amounts shown in Table 18 below. The budget of B=85 is 85% of the TMAS=100 and is compliant with Recommendation 4 in Chapter 7. Area Maximum allowable subsidy 1 10 2 20 3 20 4 25 5 25 Table 18 Five areas and maximum allowable subsidy 3. There are three bidders B1, B2 and B3. Bidders B1 and B2 applied to supply 4G service and offer MORAN infrastructure sharing in the region, resulting in weights G+S=0. Bidder 3 applied to supply 3G service and offer MORAN infrastructure sharing, resulting in a weight G+S=20. 4. The opening clock percentage is announced before the auction as 120%. This is based on the highest G+S weight which is associated with B3’s application. The switching percentages are set at maximum 20% in round 2 and maximum 10% up to the clearing round. 5. Table 19 shows the round-by-round auction outcome. The auctioneer applies a maximum MSP of 75% for package bids. The bidders submit package bids at 50% MSP. The highlighted row is the clearing round. Aggregate Round Clock B1 Bids B2 Bids B3 Bids Assignments and Cost at Clock % # % G+S=0 G+S=0 G+S=20 Support Amounts minus Budget 2 at 110% & 1 110 {1,2,3,4} at 110% 1 at 110% 12.5 {3,4,5} at 110% 2 100 {1,2,3,4} at 100% 1 at 100% {1,3,4,5} at 100% 10 B1 assigned 2 for {1,2,3} at 90% & 4 {1,4,5} at 90% & 3 19.31 & 3 for 18.4 3 90 1 at 90% -5 at 98% at 92% B3 assigned 4 for 19.14 & 5 for 19.14 4 80 1 at 85% 1 at 82% 1 at 80% B2 assigned 1 for 8.5 Total support Budget 85 amount 84.5 Table 19 Illustrative auction round-by-round 1. Round 1 All bidders submit bids at the clock percentage 110%. B1 submitted a package bid for four areas {1,2,3,4}. B2 bid for area 1 at the clock percentage 110%. B3 submitted a bid for area 2 at 110% and a package bid at 110% for areas {3,4,5}. 47 Table 20 below shows how the bidders’ activities and aggregate cost are calculated from these bids. Implied support for Implied support Implied support Area Maximum B1 at 110% for B2 at 110% for B3 at 110% 1 10 10 10 2 20 18 20 3 20 18 20 4 25 22.5 25 5 22.5 22.5 Total bids by each 75 10 81 bidder (activity) Aggregate cost at 110% 97.5 Table 20 Round 1 bidder values and aggregate cost 2. Round 2 All bidders submit bids at the clock percentage 100%. B1 submitted a package bid for four areas {1,2,3,4}. B2 bid for area 1 at the clock percentage 100%. B3 submitted one package bid for areas {1,3,4,5}. Table 21 below shows how the bidders’ activities and aggregate cost are calculated from these bids. Area Implied support for Implied support for Implied support for Maximum B1 at 100% B2 at 100% B3 at 100% 1 10 10 8 10 2 20 20 3 20 16 20 4 25 20 25 5 20 20 Total bids by each 75 10 64 bidder (activity) Aggregate cost at 100% 95 Table 21 Round 2 bidder values and aggregate cost The bid activity of each bidder cannot exceed their activity in round 1. Bidders B1 and B2 submit activities equal to that in round 1, B3 submitted a reduced bid activity at 64. Further, B3 presented a switch in demand, shifting demand from area 2 to area 1. Under the rules, this switch is allowed only if the activity associated with area 1 (the demand switch) is no greater than 20% of B3’s activity of 81 in round 1. As the activity of B3 for area 1 is 8 and 20% of its activity in round 1 is 16.2, the demand switch is allowable. If the demand switch constraint were 10%, as it is in round 3 onwards, it would still be allowed. Round 2 is not a clearing round as the aggregate cost 95 at the clock percentage100% exceeds the budget 85 by 10; hence the round does not clear. The auctioneer therefore lowers the clock percentage in the next round to 90%. B3 submits the highest bid activity. As round 2 is not a clearing round, a bidder’s activity in round 3 cannot exceed its activity in round 1. 3. Round 3 All bidders submit bids at the clock percentage 90% but B1 and B3 also include bids at an intra-round percentage rate above 90%. B1 submitted a package bid for three areas {1,2,3} and a bid at 98% for area 4. B2 bid for area 1 at the clock percentage 90%. B3 submitted package bid for areas {1,4,5} at 90% and a bid for area 3 at 92%. 48 Table 22 below shows how the bidders’ activities and aggregate cost are calculated from these bids. Area Implied support for Implied support for Implied support for Maximum (only bids B1 at 90% [activity B2 at 90% B3 at 90% [activity at 90% considered) for bids above 90% for bids above 90% shown in parenthesis] shown in parenthesis] 1 9 9 7 9 2 18 18 3 18 (14.4) 18 4 (24.5) 17.5 17.5 5 17.5 17.5 Total bids by each 69.5 9 56.4 bidder (activity) Aggregate cost at 100% 80 Table 22 Round 3 bidder values and aggregate cost The bid activity of each bidder cannot exceed their activity in round 2. Every bidder lowers its bid activity in round 3. Round 3 is the clearing round as the aggregate cost 80 at the clock percentage 90% is less than the budget 85. 4. Assignment determination. The bids are considered in ascending order of percentage point. Bids at the same percentage point are processed in ascending order of the S+G weight. The bids at 90% by B1 and B2 are considered first. Assume that B1 is chosen by a pseudo-random number generator. • B1 submitted a package bid with a MSP 50%. Area 1 cannot be assigned because B2 also submitted a bid at zero weight at 90%. Areas 2 and 3 and are available to be assigned. (B3 did bid for Area 3 but at a percentage point above the clock percentage.) Areas 2 and 3 of B1’s bid exceed the MSP and therefore these areas can be assigned to B1. • B2’s bid is considered next. This was for Area 1. This cannot be assigned because B1 also bid for Area 1 at 90% with a zero weight. • B3 submitted a 90% package bid {1,4,5} with weight S+G=20 and MSP of 50%. Area 1 is not yet available as the other bidders also bid for it at zero weight. Areas 4 and 5 are available and meet the MSP. Thus Areas 4 and 5 are assigned to B3. • B3’s bid for Area 3 at 92% is considered next. This area has already been assigned to B1. • B1’s bid for Area 4 at 98% is considered next. This area has already been assigned to B3. 5. Price point determination. This is calculated as the highest price point (say in multiples of 0.01%) between 90% and 100% at which the aggregate cost is no greater than the budget. In our terminology we defined this as a number P* between 90 and up to 100. The idea is to exhaust as much of the budget as possible, reflecting bids for the areas made and the assignments made in the clearing round. Table 23 shows the implied price support for a price point P. 49 Area Assignment status Implied support at P, Comment where 90≤P≤100 1 Not yet assigned 9 This is the implied support at clock percentage 90% at zero weight which is the most expensive scenario 2 B1 (P/100)×20 This is the implied support at P at zero weight 3 B1 (min[P,92]/100)×20 If P≤92 the implied support is calculated at P for a zero weight, if P>92 the implied support is at 92% with zero weight, reflecting the bid made by the second placed bidder B3 but at the winner’s weight 4 B3 (min[P,98]-20)/100)×25 If P≤98 the implied support is calculated at P for a weight of 20, if P>98 the implied support is at 98% with a weight 20, reflecting the bid made by the second placed bidder B1 but at the winner’s weight 5 B3 ((P-20)/100)×25 This is the implied support at P at weight 20 Table 23 Implied price support 6. The highest price point P* in the above table which applies to the assigned areas 2-5 is 96.57%. Table 24 illustrates the maximum support amounts at P*=96.57%. The clearing price point P* is below the previous round’s clock percentage (100%) and this ends the processing of bids in the clearing round. If P*=100%, the processing would continue by examining carried-forward bids.132 Area Assignment status Maximum support amount at P* 1 Not yet assigned 9 2 B1 19.31 3 B1 18.40 4 B3 19.14 5 B3 19.14 Total support amount 84.99 rounded to 85.00 Table 24 Price determination 7. Round 4 The clock percentage is set at 80% by the auctioneer. Each bidder can only bid for the unassigned Area 1. Bidders’ bids from round 3 are carried forward at 90%. • Scenario 1. B1 submits a bid for Area 1 at 85%. B2 submits a bid for Area 1 at 82% and B3 submits a bid for Area 1 at 80%. In this instance the bids are processed in ascending order of the S+G weight; after this they are then processed in ascending price order (this is the reverse of the sorting that takes place in the clearing round). B1 and B2 have submitted bids at S+G=0 and B3 submitted a bid at S+G=20. B1 and B2 bids are therefore considered first. B2’s bid is considered first, as it is at a lower price point. As no other bidder has submitted a lower price bid for Area 1 at S+G=0, B2 is assigned Area 2. The price point determining the support payment is determined by the second smallest bid, which in this case is B1’s bid at 85%. Therefore B2 is assigned Area 2 and receives support payment 8.5. The final outcome under this scenario is shown in Table 25. 132 Recall, carried-forward bids are the bids made in the previous round at the clock percentage. Processing would consider carried-forward bids for areas that have not yet been assigned. In the numerical example here, all areas have been assigned or feature competition and will result in further rounds of bidding. Hence, there are no carried-forward bids to process in the clearing round. In the round after the clearing round (round 4), a bidder can choose to bid for an area yet to be assigned (Area 1), notwithstanding any carried-forward bid at the previous round’s clock percentage 90%. 50 Area Assignment status Maximum support amount at P* 1 B2 8.5 2 B1 19.31 3 B1 18.40 4 B3 19.14 5 B3 19.14 Total support amount allocated 84.49 Table 25 Scenario 1 post clearing round bidding • Scenario 2. Only B3 submits a bid at 85%. In this case the bids of B1 and B2 made in round 3 carry-forward at 90%. As there is a tie between B1 and B2, the system would separate the bids of B1 and B2 by a pseudo-random number.133 Suppose B1 is chosen as the winning bid. Area 1 is assigned to B1 at 90%. The final outcome under this scenario is shown in Table 26. Area Assignment status Maximum support amount at P* 1 B1 9 2 B1 19.31 3 B1 18.40 4 B3 19.14 5 B3 19.14 Total support amount allocated 84.99 Table 26 Scenario 2 post clearing round bidding • Scenario 3. B2 submits a bid of 87% and B3 submits a bid at 85%. It follows B1 submits the carried-forward bid at 90%. In this case the bid of B2 is processed first as it has a zero weight and a lower price point than B1. B2 would be assigned Area 1 at 90%, the next-smallest bid at zero weight. The final outcome under this scenario is shown in Table 27. 133 The system separates ties of carried-forward bids after the clearing round rather than proceeding to a new round. This is because the tied bidders have not presented new bids and the role played by lowering the percentage price point would be redundant. Bidders who have presented bids for an unassigned area would know in advance that not submitting a new bid carries a risk that another eligible bidder could outbid them. The second-price rule provides an incentive to bid truthfully (i.e., bid for support that honestly reflects the cost of providing service). 51 Area Assignment status Maximum support amount at P* 1 B2 9 2 B1 19.31 3 B1 18.40 4 B3 19.14 5 B3 19.14 Total support amount allocated 84.99 Table 27 Scenario 3 post clearing round bidding 8. Round 4 is the final round, as all areas are assigned and all bids have been processed. Appendix E Electronic auction platforms 52 1. Many government agencies around the world have made use of multi-round auctions to sell and procure goods and services. The usual approach is for agencies to use an EAP, in which an auction is hosted online over the Internet (public or private) allowing the auctioneer and bidders to participate remotely. By removing the need to be physically present at an auction address and for bids and other auction information to be posted electronically, transaction costs are lowered. Further, remotely hosting auctions enables a complete digital audit trail to be maintained. 2. An EAP is an application run on a server hosted by an agency or usually a third party supplier. In the specialised field of EAPs involving multiple goods and sometimes complicated winner determination algorithms, there are a number of specialized vendors. The following are among the prominent in the field: Auctiometrix (www.auctiometrix.com) Auctionomics (www.auctionomics.com) DotEcon (www.dotecon.com) Innovative Auctions (www.innovativeauctions.com) Power Auctions (www.powerauctions.com) 3. The services provided by an EAP specialist include: • Assessing which auction format best achieves the goals of the client • Planning the entire award or procurement process • Drafting the auction rules and ensuring these are compliant with relevant legislation • Advice on the consultative process with stakehAolders • Advice and assistance during the pre-qualification process and evaluation • Production of auction guidelines and manuals • Ensuring auction rules are fully captured in the software • Auction training for administrators and bidders • Deploying and managing auction • Advice on publication of winners • Post-auction evaluation 4. A typical contract with an EAP provider enables the client as auctioneer to use an EAP under licence for the duration of a specific award or procurement process. The licence will usually be written such that the intellectual property of the EAP is retained by the vendor. The vendor offers its generic platform (e.g. WebBidder is the generic platform of DotEcon134 and Power Auctions135 offers a SaaS136 model) which it then modifies to meet the clients’ needs. 5. The end-to-end process for a full-scale EAP can be lengthy. From choosing the EAP supplier through to auction deployment can take many months. The software that is produced will usually need to undergo both UAT (user acceptance testing) and pen testing (penetration testing). 6. UAT is where the auction software is tested by the client or a third-party on behalf of the client, to determine whether it can be accepted or not by the users of the software. In effect UAT is an approval process and is performed once the functional, system and regression testing137 are completed. UAT validates the software against the auction requirements and is carried out by entities familiar with the auction requirements. 7. UAT is the last testing carried out before the software goes live and is the last chance for the client to test the software and measure if it is fit for purpose. It involves testing all electronic forms respond as they should, that the front-end of the auction and any back-end algorithms are entirely consistent with the detailed auction rules. This usually requires scripting scenarios and testing for edge cases. In addition to the companies listed above, 134 See https://www.dotecon.com/expertise/auction-software/ 135 Power Auctions offers its platform as ‘Software as a Service’ (SaaS), see https://www.powerauctions.com/software. 136 Software as a service is a software licensing and delivery model in which software is licensed on a subscription basis and is centrally hosted. SaaS is also known as "on-demand software" and Web-based/Web-hosted software. This is how most EAP vendors offer services to their clients. 137 Regression testing is defined as a type of software testing to confirm that a recent program or code change has not adversely affected existing fea- tures. Regression testing is nothing but a full or partial selection of already executed test cases which are re-executed to ensure existing function- alities work fine. It ensures that new code changes do not have side effects on the existing functionalities. In other words, the old code should still work once new code changes are completed. 53 specialized companies such as the Smith Institute in the UK undertake UAT of sophisticated EAPs.138 8. Penetration testing is a security exercise where a cybersecurity expert attempts to find and exploit vulnerabilities in a computer system. The purpose of this simulated attack is to identify any weak spots in a system’s defences which attackers could take advantage of. Pen testing is important in high-stakes auctions, especially to guard against malicious attacks that undermine the system. Specialist companies provide these services and often deliver their outcomes remotely. E.1. Recommended EAP for pilot auction 1. In Chapter 7 of this report we have recommended an auction format for deployment as a pilot in Tanzania by UCSAF. To proceed it is necessary to make use of an EAP. The options available are: • Develop, build and maintain an EAP • Procure an EAP under licence, manage and maintain in Tanzania • Procure an EAP under licence, outsource its management and maintenance 2. Observations of other universal service agencies, such as the FCC in the United States, indicate that option (c) is the preferred choice. This reflects that the highly specialized skills required are typically unavailable, that the vendor has greater experience, and it costs less. In this setting UCSAF would manage the auction but interact with the chosen EAP vendor during the entire process. E.2. Independent module alongside taneps 3. UCSAF should explore with the chosen vendor the implementation of the EAP alongside the established TANePS platform. 4. UCSAF should prepare and scope a detailed specification for an EAP in accordance with the auction rules set out in Appendix C. 138 See https://www.smithinst.co.uk/spectrum/ 54 Appendix F Slides presented at mission in dodoma On 3 August 2022 the slides shown below were presented to government stakeholders at Dodoma. Attendees included key representatives from UCSAF (including Mrs Justina T. Mashiba, CEO) and MFP (including Mr Eliakim C. Maswi, CEO). A version of the slide content was also discussed with representatives from the MNOs AirTel, Halotel, Tigo and Vodacom on 1 and 2 August in Dar es Salaam. Feedback from the stakeholder engagement was positive. Smart Reverse Auctions How to achieve the best possible outcome for disbursing universal service funds Dr. Chris Doyle August 3, 2022 55 Purpose • Policy maker wants to promote regional broadband uptake • Sets policy – affects licence terms, regulation and may result in transferring support payments to operators • Assist service providers by providing financial support • Demand for financial support may exceed funds available • How do we resolve this? Solution • Administer grants by application or hold a reverse auction? • A solution should ensure that support payments are targeted effectively • An auction also lessens some of the bureaucratic burden of disbursement • Private sector stakeholders see it as a fairer and more transparent process Policy recommendation for UCSAF • Consider deploying a pilot to see whether a multiple round clock auction can achieve more effective use of public funds • Could try the auction process in several wards in one region • Start by estimating realistic supports needed to ensure break-even – reserve payments • Auctioneer announces clock percentage • Bidders can vary bids through rounds and react to information disclosed during the process • Can be applied to many other settings where public funds are available and competition for funds exceeds amounts available 56 Grants: Pros • Allows bureaucratic oversight of applicants • Ensures the right entities obtain support Grants: Cons • Scoring methods may be challenged • Susceptible to influence • Applicants may overstate investment intentions • Funds may not be fully disbursed Reverse Auctions: Pros • Can be designed to ensure available financial support is targeted effectively • Can lessen bureaucratic burden of disbursement by making use of auction ‘discovery’ • Private sector stakeholders often see it as a fairer and more transparent process Reverse Auctions: Cons • If badly designed can result in poor outcomes • May not be needed if demand for support funds below available support 57 International Best Practice • Auctions have been used by some government agencies around the world to: • Assigning radio frequencies • Allocate financial support for broadband and fibre • Example: United States, the approach is to allocate support payments by auction • August 1, 2019, the FCC adopted a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM) proposing to establish the $20.4 billion Rural Digital Opportunity Fund to bring high speed fixed broadband service to rural homes and small businesses that lack it • Multiple round (clock) auctions used • FCC Auction #904 disbursed nearly $16 billion Auction 904 • Bidders won funding to deploy high-speed broadband to over 5.2 million unserved homes and businesses, almost 99% of the locations available in the auction • A total of 180 bidders won auction support, to be distributed over the next 10 years • Bidding procedures prioritized bids for higher speeds and lower latency • The auction unleashed robust price competition that resulted in more locations being awarded at less cost to Americans who pay into the Universal Service Fund • 5,220,833 locations assigned support in the auction had an initial reserve price of over $26 billion over the next decade; through vigorous competition among bidders, the final price tag to cover these locations is now just over $9 billion 58 Auction #904 FCC 59 Bibliography Armstrong, Sue (editor) (2012) “Public Procurement Regulation: An Introduction”, University of Nottingham, report on principles and practice of regulations on the United Nations Commission on International Trade Law (UNCITRAL) Model Law of the procurement of goods, construction and services (see https://uncitral.un.org/ Ausubel, Lawrence M. 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