IMPACTS OF COVID-19 AND RECOVERY IN GEORGIA GEORGIA HIGH FREQUENCY SURVEY (GHFS) MAIN FINDINGS ROUND 7 CONTENTS I. Overview, Updates and Key Findings II. Monitoring the effects of COVID-19 in Georgia: Survey Methods III. Impact of COVID-19 on individuals and households: Main results • Prevalence of COVID-19 • COVID-19 Vaccine • Education • Employment • Income shocks • Remittances • Inflation • Socioeconomic status I. Updates and Key Findings Background • Six rounds of High-Frequency Phone surveys were carried out to understand the impact of COVID-19 in Georgia. Four waves were conducted from December 2020 to June 2021 and after almost a year, new rounds of High-Frequency Phone Survey were carried out in March and May 2022. • Seventh round of survey was carried out in September 2022 to further understand the direction of Georgia’s vaccine uptake, economic recovery from COVID 19, and impact of inflation among other issues tracked in earlier rounds. • Georgia was affected by the worldwide increase in prices of essential items like food and healthcare. The ongoing war in Ukraine further impacts the Georgian economy. Therefore, tracking the impact of inflation along with the economic recovery will be vital going forward. Detecting the impact earlier might allow for possible policy remedies to help the vulnerable Georgians. Main Messages from Round 7 (September 2022) • COVID-19 prevalence significantly increased between June 2021 and March 2022,but the infection rate stabilized since March 2022. Only the households living in Tbilisi saw a slight increase in infection rate since May 2022. • Prevalence was still higher among the better-off households, Georgians, and in Tbilisi and other urban areas. Larger households were also more likely to report being infected by COVID 19. • Vaccination status stands at 44% of all adults, which remained the same since May 2022. • Vaccination rate was lower among adults from poorer households, those in areas outside Tbilisi, younger adults, and with lower education. • The main reason people do not want to get vaccines is a lack of trust in vaccines, which has not changed in the last rounds of the GHFS. Other most frequently named reasons were: vaccines create larger health problems (16%), the belief that vaccines are ineffective at treating disease (14%), and a lack of testing of the vaccines (13%). • Overall, 13% of households with school-aged children reported missing school during the current school year. The share declined since the last wave of survey (24%, May 2022). • Poorer households and households receiving targeted social assistance were significantly more likely to report their child(ren) missed school at some point during the current school year. Georgia High-Frequency Survey (GHFS), Round 7 Main Messages from Round 7 (September 2022) • Employment is recovering and getting close to the pre-pandemic level. • While a large share of people who had lost a job returned to work, 33% say they were unemployed at some point during the pandemic. More adults in less well-off and larger households, areas outside Tbilisi, younger adults, those with lower education, male and ethnic minorities experienced disruption in employment. • Moreover, job loss was significantly more widespread among workers in the informal sector (49%) compared to formal sector workers (34%). • One-third of the households reported that their household income is less compared to February 2020. • This rate is 10 percentage points lower than in May 2022 and similar to the surveys conducted previously in 2020 and 2021. Georgia High-Frequency Survey (GHFS), Round 7 Main Messages from Round 7 (September 2022) • The increase in prices have remained constant since March 2022 – indicating that inflation has not eased. Rising prices poses a significant challenges on food consumption. • A majority of households report consuming less food in response to inflation. • Inflation seems to impact disproportionately poorer households, those living in rural area, elderly, ethnic minorities, who rely on TSA, those with members experiencing job loss during pandemic and households with less income compared to before the pandemic. • Similar trend is observed for transport and fuel, utility and housing, and healthcare. • Absolute wealth (or income) plays an important role in influencing subjective well- being. • Individuals from poorer households, those in rural, elderly people, those with no tertiary education, recipients of TSA, those who experienced job loss during the pandemic, and those with less household income compared to pre-pandemic are more pessimistic. Georgia High-Frequency Survey (GHFS), Round 7 II. Survey Methods COVID-19 Outbreak Feb/March 2021 In-person Jan 30. WHO schooling Mar 11. WHO declares outbreak Summer 2020 starts and declares COVID-19 a Public Health Restrictions gradual ease of global pandemic. Emergency. lifted. restrictions. Feb 26. Nov 2020 Mar 21. March 15, 2021 Georgian citizen 23 May. State of Second International Vaccination returning from emergency lockdown. passenger traffic started. Iran diagnosed lifted. Economic suspended. w/ COVID-19. activities Mar 23. First strict quarantine permitted, with Feb 29. restrictions. exceptions. Georgia Restrictions on closes gatherings. schools. Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Mar Jun Mar 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 2021 2021 2022 Rounds Sample size Margin of error Response rate Survey dates 1 1986 2.20% 40.10% December 23-25, 2020 2 2042 2.17% 39.00% January 27th - February 1st, 2021 3 2104 2.14% 32.30% March 24-31, 2021 4 2086 2.15% 37.70% June 2-9, 2021 5 2048 2.17% 27.20% March 11-18, 2022 6 2190 2.09% 27.60% May 3-9, 2022 7 2074 2.15% 24.70% September 23-30, 2022 Data & knowledge response Coverage of COVID-19 Monitoring COVID-19 High-Frequency Surveys Collected data on the socioeconomic impacts of COVID-19 on households and individuals in 48 countries. Cross-country harmonized indicators are available.** https://www.worldbank.org/en/data/interactive/2020/11/11/covid-19-high-frequency-monitoring-dashboard Source: World Bank (2021). * Completed or under implementation as of March 15th, 2021. ** Updated as of February 19th, 2021. 10 GHFS Methodology and Implementation Georgia High Frequency Surveys: Design Survey Sampling Round Coverage Method Response rate Dates Sample Structure frame December 1 40.10% 1986 23-25, 2020 January 27th 2 39.00% - February 2042 Representativ 1st, 2021 e of the Random national Pooled cross- dialing of March 24-31, 3 population; CATI† 32.30% 2104 sectional data cellphone 2021 Tbilisi, Other numbers. Urban, Rural June 2-9, 4 37.70% 2086 locations. 2021 March 11-18, 5 27.20% 2048 2022 May 3-9, 6 27.60% 2190 2022 September 7 24.70% 2074 23-30, 2022 Source: World Bank. † Computer Assisted Telephone Interviews. 11 GHFS Methodology and Implementation Georgia High Frequency Surveys: Topics Socio-demographic COVID-19 Prevalence Education status Employment Household incomes Inflation Vaccine Uptake 12 I. III. Impact of COVID-19 on individuals and households Main results 1) Prevalence of COVID-19 Prevalence of COVID-19 is still higher in densely populated urban areas, but the trend is parallel in urban and rural areas. Prevalence has remained the same since March 2022 survey.  Since the outbreak, around 70% of all households had at least 1 member who were tested positive or had similar symptoms to COVID-19. Most reported cases had been confirmed by a lab test.  Prevalence was higher among the better-off households, Georgians, and in Tbilisi and other urban areas. Larger households were also more likely to report catching COVID 19. Source: Georgia High-Frequency Survey (GHFS), Rounds 1, 2, 3, 4 , 5, 6 & 7. Notes: Respondents weighted by post-stratification weights. Households that own 1-3 assets are classified as those associated with “Lowest� wealth index; those that own 4-6 types of assets are classified as “Better�; those that own 7-9 types of assets are classified as those associated with “Highest� wealth index. 14 2) COVID-19 Vaccine Overall, 44% of the adult population report that they have received a vaccine. The share remained the same since the last survey (May 2022). • The vaccination rate is higher among people living in wealthier households, people in Tbilisi compared to other areas of the country, among older people, and among people with higher education. • Overall vaccination rate has not changed since the last survey wave. Source: Georgia High-Frequency Survey (GHFS). Round 7. 15 2) COVID-19 Vaccine Vaccine hesitancy remains high in Georgia. Among the 55% of the public who have not been vaccinated, 89% do not plan to get a vaccine. Only 3% plans to receive a Covid-19 vaccine, and a further 8% were uncertain. • The main reason for hesitancy identified by respondents was lack of trust in vaccines (32%), followed by vaccines create larger health problems (16%), the belief that vaccines are ineffective at treating disease (14%), a lack of testing of the vaccines (13%), due to health conditions (including allergies) (13%), and already having had COVID 19 (11%). • The main reasons for vaccine hesitancy remain the same as in the last waves of the surveys. Source: Georgia High-Frequency Survey (GHFS). Round 7. 16 3) Education 13% of households who have at least one school-aged child report that there were times when children stopped schooling during the current school year. The share declined since the last wave of survey (May 2022). • 13% of households reported that the child missed school last week. • Children in less well-off households were significantly more likely to report that their children missed schooling during the current school year.* • Similarly, ethnic minorities, larger households, those receiving targeted social assistance, and female children were more likely to report their child missed school at some point during the current school year. Source: Georgia High-Frequency Survey (GHFS). Round 7. Note: *Current school year started on September 15th. Considering that the survey conducted in the last week of September, the period of the current school year includes maximum 2 weeks. 17 4) Employment The employment is recovering and getting close to the pre-pandemic level. • Overall, 47% of the adult population reported they were employed before the Covid-19 pandemic in May 2022. In September 2022, 49% of the population reported they were employed last week, a slight increase from May. • Overall, employment seems to be reaching the pre-pandemic level. • Among those who had a job prior to the pandemic, 20% reported that they were not working during the week prior to the survey. • In contrast, 17% of those who did not have a job in March 2020 reported having one in the last week. • In total, 84% of those who were employed before the pandemic and were working last week report that they kept the same job, while 16% say they changed their job during the pandemic. Percentage of adults employed Source: Georgia High-Frequency Survey (GHFS). Round 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 & 7. 18 4) Employment Disruption in employment during the pandemic was reported by 33% of the population. • Among those who were working before the pandemic and last week, 33% say they were unemployed at some point during the pandemic. • More adults in less well-off and larger households, areas outside Tbilisi, younger adults, those with lower education, male and ethnic minorities experienced disruption in employment. Source: Georgia High-Frequency Survey (GHFS). Round 7. 19 4) Employment - Formality Pandemic seems to have hit Adults from less well-off households, those in rural, older informal sector particularly workers, ethnic minorities, those with lower education, and hard. male workers were more likely to work in the informal sector before the pandemic. Adults Who Lost Jobs During COVID-19 Pandemic, by formality Among adults who were employed before COVID-19, % who 60 were unemployed at one point during COVID pandemic 49 50 40 34 30 20 10 0 Informal Formal Formality of Employment before COVID-19 Source: Georgia High-Frequency Survey (GHFS). Round 7. 20 4) Employment COVID is still the dominant reasons that people lost job. • The most frequently named were COVID related reasons (18%), followed by being ill (16%), and need to care for children/elderly (13%). 12% reported that they are temporarily absent and 9% being a casual worker, the same share named end of contract/reasons unrelated to COVID-19 (9%). • Approximately 9% of relevant respondents named some other reason, though there were no reasons which a large share of these respondents named. Reasons for disruption of work varied from personal reasons to low salary and study. Reasons for losing a job % Source: Georgia High-Frequency Survey (GHFS). Round 7. 21 5) Income shocks 33% of the households reported that their household income is less compared to February 2020 (before COVID-19). • This rate is 10 percentage points lower than in May 2022 and similar to the surveys conducted previously in 2020 and 2021. • Although the share of households reporting a loss of income decreased in all settlement types, households residing in Tbilisi saw the highest percentage drop compared to the last survey (May 2022). Percentage of Households with Decreased Income Source: Georgia High-Frequency Survey (GHFS). Round 7. 22 5) Income shocks • Job loss is still a huge predictor of household income drop. • Also, ethnic minority, those with larger household size and median wealth level were more likely to report decreased household income compared to the pre-pandemic level. Source: Georgia High-Frequency Survey (GHFS). Round 7. 23 6) Remittances 17% of households received remittances before the pandemic. • 46% of households that received remittances before COVID-19, suffered reductions in remittances inflows – the share decreased by 12 percentage points since the last survey when the GHFS asked this question (June 2021). • Only a few households reported increase in remittances. • Households in other urban and rural areas and those who are relatively less well-off were most likely to have been affected. Household exposed to Covid-19 and those who lost a job during the pandemic reported decrease of remittances more often. Source: Georgia High-Frequency Survey (GHFS). Round 7. 24 7) Inflation Georgia experienced 9.6% annualized inflation in 2021, a significant climb over past years. • While in 2012 and 2013, Georgia experienced mild deflation, it stood at between 2.1% and 6% in the years between 2014 and 2020. In 2021, inflation climbed from 5.2% to 9.6%. • In January of 2022, year on year inflation stood at 13.9%, remaining high at 10.9% in August 2022 and 11.5% in September 2022. Annual inflation (consumer prices, %) 12 10 9.6 8 6 6 4.9 5.2 4 4 3.1 2.6 2 2.1 0 -0.9 -0.5 -2 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Source: Georgia High-Frequency Survey (GHFS). National Statistics Office of Georgia . 25 7) Inflation Overwhelming majority of the Georgians report that the prices paid for different items over the past six months increased. • The vast majority reported price increases on all categories asked about. Overall, 95% of the population report that the prices they paid for food and nonalcoholic beverages increased, 92% reported increased prices for transport and fuel, 83% for utilities and housing, and 85% for healthcare including medicine. • The numbers are very similar to round 6 survey (May), indicating that there is no sign of decreasing prices. Share of public reporting price changes (%) Source: Georgia High-Frequency Survey (GHFS). Round 7. 26 7) Inflation Majority of HHs report adjusting their spending patterns due to the recent uptick in prices. • Overall, 39% of those who said the prices for food and nonalcoholic beverages increased, did not report changes in spending, while 59% said they started consuming less. • When it comes to transport and fuel, 58% of those who reported an increase of prices, say they used it less, while 39% reported no changes in their spending pattern. • In total, 42% report no changes in spending patterns for housing and utilities despite the increase of prices, while 57% report consuming less. • As for the healthcare category, 42% report they started consuming less healthcare, while 56% report not adjusting their spending pattern. A further 1% report stopping consumption of healthcare. Coping behavior among those experiencing price increases (%) Source: Georgia High-Frequency Survey (GHFS). Round 7. 27 7) Inflation – Impact on Food Rising prices poses a significant challenges on food consumption. Inflation seems to impact disproportionately poorer households, those living in rural area, elderly, ethnic minorities, who rely on TSA, those with members experiencing job loss during pandemic and households with less income compared to before the pandemic. Similar trend is observed for transport and fuel, utility and housing, and healthcare. Source: Georgia High-Frequency Survey (GHFS). Round 7. 28 8) Socioeconomic status Respondents were asked to make a self-assessment of their households’ current financial standing. • A third (33%) evaluate their state as good (31%) or very good (1%), while 67% said that they face either a bad (48%) or very bad financial situation (19%). • When comparing with the previous waves of the GHFS, the data show that perceptions of financial situations did not change much. Subjective View of Economic Well-Being Over Time (%) Source: Georgia High-Frequency Survey (GHFS). Round 7. 29 8) Socioeconomic status Absolute wealth (or income) plays an important role in influencing subjective well-being. Individuals from poorer households, those in rural, elderly people, those with no tertiary education, recipients of TSA, those who experienced job loss during the pandemic, and those with less household income compared to pre-pandemic are more pessimistic. Source: Georgia High-Frequency Survey (GHFS). Round 7. 30 Annex 31 Wealth Index The wealth index was constructed as a simple additive index. A respondent is given one point for each of the following items which they report owning: a refrigerator, a color TV, a smartphone, a laptop or tablet, an automobile, air conditioning, an automatic washing machine, hot water, and central heating. Households were classified as “Lowest� if they posses 0-3 kinds of assets; “Better� if 4-6 kinds of assets; and “Highest� if 7-9 kinds of assets. Ownership of durable goods/ Wealth index (% of population) Source: Georgia High-Frequency Survey (GHFS). Round 7. 32 Inflation – Impact on Transport and Fuel Source: Georgia High-Frequency Survey (GHFS). Round 7. 33 Inflation – Utility and Housing Source: Georgia High-Frequency Survey (GHFS). Round 7. 34 Inflation – Impact on Healthcare Spending Source: Georgia High-Frequency Survey (GHFS). Round 7. 35