Strengthening Hydromet and
Multi-hazard Early Warning
Services in Uzbekistan
A ROAD MAP
August 2022
PROGRAM FOR
ASIA CONNECTIVITY
AND TRADE (PACT)
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Acknowledgements
This road map has been prepared by the World Bank under the Strengthening Early Warning of
Mountain Hazards in Central Asia Advisory Services and Analytics (ASA) and as part of Bank-
executed assistance to the Central Asia Hydrometeorological Modernization Project (CAHMP).
It was financed by the Central Asia Water and Energy Program (CAWEP), the Global Facility for
Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) and the Program for Asia Connectivity and Trade (PACT).
The road map presents a potential pathway to strengthen Uzbekistan’s national hydrometeorological
(hydromet) and multi-hazard early warning systems and services, based on the needs of the user
community. It is based on a technical evaluation and assessment of the needs and capacities
of Uzhydromet which, as the main service provider in Uzbekistan, issues meteorological and
hydrological information, forecasts and warnings.
Other government agencies that are responsible for the provision of advisory services to end-
users which incorporate factors impacted by weather, climate, and hydrology are considered as key
stakeholders of the Uzhydromet information and services. Some important stakeholders include
more than twenty government ministries and state committees including those responsible for
agriculture and food security, water resources, disaster management, health, and energy, as well as iii
economic sectors such as aviation, construction, road transport, agribusiness, insurance, tourism,
telecom, mass media, and small businesses.
This road map identifies gaps and challenges in the production and delivery of weather, climate,
and hydrological information and services, and proposes a strategy for improving the country’s
institutional capacity in support of saving lives, protecting property and livelihoods, and social
and economic development. The information for the preparation of the road map was collected
remotely due to the pandemic situation, through the authors’ ongoing consultations with officials
in Uzhydromet. However, while this information was validated during a mission to Tashkent in May
2022, it was not possible to have direct consultations with the stakeholders. The road map is the
result of a collaboration between the Government of Uzbekistan and the World Bank Group.
The authors wish to extend their appreciation to and acknowledge the support and assistance of
Uzhydromet in providing the needed information for preparation of the road map.
This road map was prepared by Haleh Kootval (Senior Meteorology and Public Weather Services
Specialist), Yuri Simonov (Senior Hydrology Specialist), Gerald Fleming (Senior Meteorology
Specialist), Vladimir Tsirkunov (Lead Specialist) and Abror Gafurov (Senior Hydrology Specialist),
under the leadership of Daniel Kull (Task Team Leader and Senior Disaster Risk Management
Specialist).
CONTENTS Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP
Table of Contents
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS.......................................................................................................................iii
ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS.................................................................................................. vii
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY......................................................................................................................ix
Purpose of the Road Map Development..................................................................................ix
Geographical Features, Hydrometeorological Hazards and their impacts..............................ix
Status of hydromet services.....................................................................................................x
Assessment of User Needs.....................................................................................................xi
Proposed Modernization of Hydrometeorological and Multi-hazard Early Warning
Services...................................................................................................................................xi
Socioeconomic Benefits of Improved Hydromet Services and Early Warning Systems.........xv
1. COUNTRY CONTEXT......................................................................................................................1
2. CLIMATE ....................................................................................................................................... 4
3. HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL HAZARDS.......................................................................................... 6
iv 4. SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS OF HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL HAZARDS...................................... 7
5. INSTITUTIONAL AND ORGANIZATIONAL ANALYSIS AND A BRIEF HISTORY OF
UZHYDROMET, ITS ROLES AND RESPONSIBILITIES AND FUNCTIONS.......................................10
5.1. Legal status in the Government....................................................................................... 11
5.2. Legal mandate and responsibility.................................................................................... 11
5.3. Structure of Uzhydromet.................................................................................................12
5.4 Staffing Situation..............................................................................................................14
5.5. Operating model..............................................................................................................16
5.6. Strategy for hydrometeorology.......................................................................................16
5.7. Budget of Uzhydromet..................................................................................................... 17
5.8. Data Sharing Policy.........................................................................................................19
5.9. Major Users and Stakeholders of Uzhydromet............................................................... 20
6. Current status of uzhydromet services and infrastructure.......................................................... 22
6.1. Service delivery systems................................................................................................ 22
6.1.1. Public Weather Services System........................................................................ 22
6.1.2. Disaster Management Services System............................................................. 23
6.1.3. Water Resources and Flood Forecasting Services System................................ 24
6.1.4. Climate Services System................................................................................... 25
6.1.5. Agricultural Services System............................................................................. 25
6.1.6. Aeronautical Meteorological Services System................................................... 26
Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP CONTENTS
6.2. Relationship with the private sector............................................................................... 28
6.3. Partnerships and investments........................................................................................ 29
6.4. Quality management systems........................................................................................ 30
6.5. Capacity building............................................................................................................ 30
6.6. Collaboration with academia...........................................................................................31
6.7. Technology infusion.........................................................................................................31
6.8. Monitoring and observation systems............................................................................. 32
6.8.1. Global data systems........................................................................................... 33
6.8.2. National data systems....................................................................................... 33
6.8.2.1. Surface Meteorological Observations Network ................................... 33
6.8.2.2. Surface Hydrological Observations Network ...................................... 35
6.8.2.3. Upper air system.................................................................................. 37
6.8.2.4. Radar system....................................................................................... 37
6.8.2.5. Remote sensing system....................................................................... 37
6.8.3. The operation and maintenance cost of the existing observing network.......... 37
6.8.4. Data Management and Archiving Systems: Data Collection System, Quality
Control / Assurance System, and Storage and Archiving................................. 38
6.9. ICT Systems: Telecommunication Systems (Data Exchange and
Distribution System, Transmission)................................................................................ 39
v
6.10. Modelling systems.........................................................................................................41
6.10.1. Meteorological Models..................................................................................... 42
6.10.1.1. Global and Regional NWP Systems...................................................... 42
6.10.1.2. Limited Area Meteorological Models................................................... 42
6.10.2. Hydrological Models........................................................................................ 42
6.11. Objective and Impact-Based Forecasting and Warning Systems.................................. 42
6.12. Hydrological forecasting systems................................................................................. 46
6.12.1. GLOFs modeling and forecasting................................................................................ 46
6.12.2. Flash floods and mudflows forecasts and warnings .................................................. 47
6.12.3. Medium-term and long-range hydrological forecasts............................................... 49
7. MODERNIZATION OF METEOROLOGICAL AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES AND EARLY
WARNING SYSTEM...................................................................................................................... 50
8. THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL VALUE CHAIN ..........................................................................51
9. CURRENT CAPACITY AND MATURITY OF UZHYDROMET.......................................................... 54
10. PROPOSED ROAD MAP SCENARIOS FOR MODERNISATION OF UZHYDROMET...................... 56
10.1. Building the scenarios................................................................................................... 57
10.2. The short-term priority actions..................................................................................... 58
10.3. The intermediate modernization stage......................................................................... 62
CONTENTS Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP
10.4. Key Needs to Achieve Intermediate Level of Modernization at Uzhydromet................. 64
10.4.1. Observing Networks Investment................................................................................ 64
10.4.2. Modelling and Forecasting Investment...................................................................... 64
10.4.3. ICT Investment................................................................................................. 64
10.4.4. Services Investment........................................................................................ 64
10.4.5. Capacity Building Investment.......................................................................... 65
10.5. Long-term modernisation ............................................................................................ 68
10.6. Key Needs to Achieve Advanced Level of Modernization at Uzhydromet..................... 70
10.6.1. Observing Networks Investment...................................................................... 70
10.6.2. Modelling and Forecasting Investment............................................................ 70
10.6.3. ICT Investment................................................................................................. 70
10.6.4. Services Investment......................................................................................... 71
10.6.5. Capacity Building Investment........................................................................... 71
11. Socioeconomic benefits of improved hydromet services and
multi-hazard early warning systems..................................................................................77
12. Public-Private engagement and service provision........................................................... 78
13. Conclusions and a way forward....................................................................................... 82
Annex 1.................................................................................................................................. 84
Annex 2.................................................................................................................................. 85
vi
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1. Schematic of an NMHS as a system of systems.................................................................xi
Figure 2. Sub-systems within each system comprised of production systems (monitoring
and observations, modelling and forecasting); delivery systems (service delivery, action,
service monitoring and feedback); support systems (ICT, Quality management and
technology infusion); and capacity building...................................................................... xii
Figure 3. Political Map of Republic of Uzbekistan..............................................................................1
Figure 4. Relief, main rivers, and lakes of the Republic of Uzbekistan.............................................. 2
Figure 5. Satellite imagery of the Aral Sea in 1964 (left), 1989 (middle) and 2020 (bottom)............ 3
Figure 6. Mean-Temperature and Precipitation in Uzbekistan from 1991-2020................................ 4
Figure 7. Annual mean temperature (left) and annual mean rainfall (right)
for the period 1991-2020.................................................................................................... 4
Figure 8. The influence of various air masses in the formation of weather
regimes in Central Asia....................................................................................................... 5
Figure 9. Areas with high potential of mudflows and GLOFs formation............................................. 8
Figure 10. Glacial lakes in mountain areas of Uzbekistan with high potential of outburst................. 9
Figure 11. A glacial lake in the Pakhtakor 2 glacier in Uzbekistan...................................................... 9
Figure 12. Organization Chart of the Uzhydromet............................................................................12
Figure 13. Structure of the Central Office of the Uzhydromet..........................................................13
Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP CONTENTS
Figure 14. Typical Structure of the Departments of Hydrometeorology of the Republic of
Karakalpakstan, Regions and the City of Tashkent.........................................................13
Figure 15. Organizational Structure of the Aviation Meteorological Service................................... 27
Figure 16. Uzhydromet revenues from provision of aeronautical meteorological services ............ 28
Figure 17. Monitoring and observing systems.................................................................................. 32
Figure 18. The meteorological monitoring network of Uzbekistan.................................................. 34
Figure 19. Location of hydrological gauges in Uzbekistan (Adopted from Uzhydromet Report
at the CARFFG System planning workshop) and hydrological hazards mapping............ 35
Figure 20. Information and communication technology system...................................................... 39
Figure 21. Modeling systems........................................................................................................... 42
Figure 22. Forecasting and warning systems.................................................................................. 43
Figure 23. NWP COSMO-CA Central Asian and Mountain domains................................................ 44
Figure 24. Mean areal precipitation (MAP) for the watersheds of Uzbekistan for
24 hours’ time step ....................................................................................................... 45
Figure 25. The meteorological value chain, shown in blue, utilizes new knowledge,
shown in lilac, to create social and economic benefits shown in green......................... 52
Figure 26. Sector balance and maturity diagram based on hydromet value chain.
An advanced value chain is shown in this figure............................................................ 52
Figure 27. Examples of the activities that contribute to each link in the value chain....................... 53
Figure 28. Schematic of Uzhydromet current Value chain.............................................................. 54 vii
Figure 29. Maturity of Uzhydromet at the Intermediate modernization stage................................. 63
Figure 30. A modern ICT system..................................................................................................... 69
Figure 31. Maturity of Uzhydromet following the Long-term modernization................................... 70
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1. Staffing situation at Uzhydromet.........................................................................................15
Table 2. Staff average salaries per month........................................................................................16
Table 3. Breakdown of the budget of Uzhydromet (2019-2021)....................................................... 17
Table 4. Estimated annual cost (USD) of operation and maintenance for the Uzhydromet
existing observing network ............................................................................................... 38
Table 5. Indicative costs (USD) of the proposed scenario for short-term modernization,
including O&M costs.......................................................................................................... 60
Table 6. Indicative costs (USD) of the proposed scenario for intermediate modernization,
including O&M costs.......................................................................................................... 65
Table 7. Indicative costs (in USD) of the proposed scenario for long-term modernization.............. 71
Table 8. Indicative costs (USD) of the proposed scenario for a single-phase
modernization over 10 years...............................................................................................74
Table 9. Examples of potential commercial weather services
Tailored Services (non-Public Task)...................................................................................81
CONTENTS Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP
Abbreviations and Acronyms
ASA Advisory Services and Analytics
AWS Automatic Weather Station
CAFEWS Central Asia Flood Early Warning System
CAHMP Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project
CARFFGS Central Asia Regional Flash Flood Guidance System
CAP Common Alerting Protocol
CAWEP Central Asia Water and Energy Program
CIS Commonwealth of Independent States
viii DRM Disaster Risk Management
ECMWF European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
EPS Ensemble Prediction System
EUMETSAT European Organization for Meteorological Satellites
FFGS Flash Flood Guidance System
FMAP Forecast Mean Areal Precipitation
EWS Early Warning Systems and Services
GDP Gross Domestic Product
GFDRR Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery
GIS Geographic Information System
GLOF Glacial Lake Outburst Flood
GTS Global Transmission System
ICT Information and Communication Technology
Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP CONTENTS
ISO International Organization for Standardization
MAP Mean Areal Precipitation
MAT Mean Areal Temperature
MHEWS Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems and Services
NIGMI Scientific Research Hydromet Institute of Uzhydromet
MoU Memorandum of Understanding
NMHS National Meteorological and Hydrological Service
NWP Numerical Weather Prediction
ix
O&M Operations and Maintenance
PACT Program for Asia Connectivity and Trade
PWS Public Weather Services
QA/QC Quality Assurance/Quality Control
QMS Quality Management System
QPF Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
SMS Short Message Service
SOP Standard Operating Procedure
RSMC Regional Specialized Meteorological Center
UZS Uzbekistan Soum (national currency)
WAFC World Area Forecast Centre
WB World Bank
WMO World Meteorological Organization
CONTENTS Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP
Executive Summary
Purpose of the Road Map Development
The purpose of this road map is to assess the current capabilities of the Hydrometeorological
Service of Uzbekistan (Uzhydromet) to produce and deliver products and services based on the
needs of their user community. The analysis identifies gaps and challenges in producing and
delivering fit-for-purpose weather, climate, and hydrological information and services. The road
map aims to provide the Government of the Republic of Uzbekistan with a technical strategic
framework to improve hydromet monitoring and early warning services and systems, and the
resulting socioeconomic benefits. The expectation is for Uzbekistan to improve its capability and
capacity to: (i) produce, manage, translate and communicate hydromet data and information,
including forecasts and warnings for stakeholders and end-users; (ii) assist stakeholders and end-
users in accessing, interpreting and utilizing the generated data and information; (iii) improve the
dissemination of and response to warnings for public safety and economic security; (iv) inform
planning and decision-making for cost-effective investments in sustainable development and
adaptation to climate change; and (v) make optimum use of all investments from the government
x and development partners.
The road map describes the current situation of hydromet service provision in Uzbekistan, including
the financial and technical infrastructure, and users of the products and services. It is clear that more
robust tools are needed to enable Uzhydromet to provide enhanced and fit-for-purpose services to
its users. To this end, the road map articulates three scenarios to help strengthen the capabilities of
Uzhydromet to better deliver hydromet information and multi-hazard early warning services (MHEWS).
The road map is regarded by the Uzhydromet leadership as providing important guidance for
strengthening the capabilities of the organization. Ultimately, the road map supports the Government
of the Republic of Uzbekistan in ensuring the safety of the population’s livelihoods and properties,
in using robust hydromet and MHEWS to attract new investors, and in protecting its economic
investments.
Geographical Features, Hydrometeorological Hazards and their impacts
Uzbekistan has a total area of 448,900 square kilometers (km2). It is a landlocked country located
in Central Asia, surrounded by Kazakhstan to the north, Turkmenistan to the west, Tajikistan, and
Kyrgyzstan to the south and east, as well as a short border with Afghanistan to the south. Most
of the rivers originate in the mountainous parts of the country in the east and south and flow into
the two main transboundary rivers, the Amu Darya and Syr Darya, which flow from Tajikistan and
Kyrgyzstan respectively and drain into the Aral Sea. There are around 505 lakes in Uzbekistan, the
majority of which are located in mountainous part of the country and have the potential for glacial
lakes outburst floods (GLOFs), which can trigger floods and mudflows.
Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP CONTENTS
Uzbekistan’s climate is classified as extreme continental, with hot summers, changeable winters and
high seasonal and daily variation of air temperature. Average temperature of the warmest month
(July) is 27-29°C, with 30-32°C in the south; average temperature of the coldest month (January)
ranges from minus 4-6°C in the north to plus 4-6°C in the south of the Republic. Annual precipitation
varies between less than 100 mm in the north and in the desert areas, to 400-700 mm or more in the
foothills and mountainous regions in the east and southeast of the territory of the Republic.
The country also ranks in the top 20 in the world in terms of its exposure to drought and faces above-
average levels of floods as well as landslides and avalanches. Risks of hydrometeorological hazards
primarily affect the agricultural sector, due to seasonal flooding and periods of drought. The most
severe drought of recent decades, which occurred in 2000 and 2001, resulted in severe economic
and social consequences. Agricultural yields fell and the losses in agricultural GDP were estimated
at between $38 million and $130 million. As of 2010 the population annually affected by flooding and
mudflow in Uzbekistan is estimated at 61,000 And expected annual impact on GDP estimated at $181
million. Mudflows can also be triggered by GLOFs, and although this is rather rare, an assessment of
lakes across Uzbekistan found that 15% of these were susceptible to outburst.
Status of hydromet services
The Centre of Hydrometeorological Service under the Cabinet of Ministers of the Republic of
Uzbekistan (Uzhydromet) is the state governing body for hydrometeorology. Uzhydromet was
established in 1921.1 The first meteorological station in Uzbekistan – Tashkent Observatory – has
been collecting observations since 1867. In the Soviet era Uzhydromet had the status of the regional
meteorological centre in Central Asia. Since independence, Uzhydromet has served as WMO’s
Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre for Central Asia. xi
Uzhydromet operates a network of 85 meteorological stations, 4 weather radars, 34
agrometeorological monitoring sites and 132 hydrological gauges. The Service has 1,958 approved
staffing positions, 1,684 of which are currently filled.
The Uzhydromet financial resources are provided by the State budget of the Republic of Uzbekistan,
extra-budgetary funds, and other sources which are not prohibited by law. Approximately, 8-10%
of the total income is from fee-based services. A large share of this is from the aeronautical
services (approximately 70-80% of fee-based income). The total Uzhydromet budget for 2021 was
approximately US$ 12.1 million2.
Public weather forecasts are issued for 6 days ahead. Weather forecasts and warnings are
disseminated through Uzhydromet’s website, social media networks, radio, and television. Uzhydromet
does not have its own TV studio but prepares graphics and text for broadcast by its forecasters
or presenters. Warnings of mudflows and avalanches are transmitted to the Ministry of Emergency
Situations, which then distributes them via SMS. Uzhydromet does not use a mobile app platform.
During the spring – summer period, representatives of Uzhydromet work with the Government Flood
Control Commission to ensure rapid response to mitigate negative impacts from the discharge of
mudflow waters. During the autumn-winter period, they monitor and prepare avalanche hazard
forecasts for the mountainous territory of the republic. Agrometeorological information is provided
in the form of daily and ten-day bulletins. Various agrometeorological reviews and forecasts for crop
conditions are also prepared by Uzhydromet.
1
World Bank & GFDRR (2020). Weather, Climate and Water in Central Asia: A Guide to Hydrometeorological Services in the Region, Washington, D.C.
2
Exchange rate used for this calculation is 1 US$=10,600 UZS
CONTENTS Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP
Uzhydromet is the designated aeronautical meteorological service provider in the country.
It implements cost-recovery of aeronautical meteorological services, has in place a quality
management system for aeronautical meteorological services, and is ISO-certified with the
certificates kept up to date.
There is no Database Management System for meteorological data archiving, storage, and
processing. Most of the historical data is stored on paper. However, Uzhydromet, with the support
of WMO and the Korean Meteorological Administration, has started working on transferring the
archive into digital form.
Assessment of User Needs
Over 20 government ministries and state committees including those responsible for agriculture
and food security; water resources; disaster management; health and energy are among the main
users of hydromet information provided by Uzhydromet. The economic sectors using tailored fee-
based services of Uzhydromet include aviation, construction, energy, road transport, agribusiness,
insurance, tourism, telecom, mass media and some small businesses.
Proposed Modernization of Hydrometeorological and Multi-hazard
Early Warning Services
The purpose of modernizing hydromet services is to reduce the socioeconomic risks of weather,
climate, and hydrological events, and thus to protect lives and economic/development gains. The
modernization proposed in this road map intends to help Uzhydromet fulfill its public tasks by
xii
strengthening its institutional and technical capabilities and capacities.
A typical NMHS is comprised of a “system of systems” as shown in Figure 1. This generic illustration
of a weather, climate or hydrological system of systems can be used to analyze the status of any
NMHS and to visualize investments required to achieve a particular level of improvement. Figure 2
shows the sub-systems of each system of an NMHS.
This road map uses a system-of-systems approach to arrive at three scenarios for modernizing
Uzhydromet.
Figure 1. Schematic of an NMHS as a system of systems3
Actions, Services,
Monitoring Objective and Impact Service
Modelling Monitoring
and Observing Forecasting and Delivery
Systems and Feedback
Systems Warning systems Systems
Systems
Quality Management Systems ICT Systems Technology Infusion Systems
Capacity Building
3
Rogers, D. P., Tsirkunov, V.V.; Kootval, H., Soares, A., Kull, D.; Bogdanova, A-M, and Suwa, M. (2019). Weathering the Change: How to Improve
Hydromet Services in Developing Countries?, World Bank, Washington D.C.
Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP CONTENTS
Figure 2. Sub-systems within each system4 comprised of production systems (monitoring and
observations, modelling and forecasting); delivery systems (service delivery, action, service
monitoring and feedback); support systems (ICT, Quality management and technology
infusion); and capacity building
Monitoring and observing Modeling Objective and impact Service delivery Actions, service
systems systems forecasting and warning systems monitoring, and feedback
systems systems
Global NWP Severe hazard Public weather
Service systems
Global data system systems forecasting systems and hydro
for public
services system
Regional NWP Nowcasting G2G disaster Service systems
systems system management for national and
National data service system provincis
systems
governments
Limited area Very short-range
model system forecasting system G2G agriculture
Surface obs service system
systems Service systems
for buinesses
Nowcasting
system Short-fange GaG water and
forecasting system power management
Radar system services system
Hydro modeling
systems Medium-range
Data management forecasting system G2G and G2B aviation
and archiving services system
systems
Long-range
ITC systems forecasting system GaG and G28 dimate
External data services system
systems
Data comms Technology infusion
systems systems Public private
cooperative services
systems to key
Computing hardware External research businesses xiii
Quality management and software and development
systems systems systems
Communication Internal research
Institutional systems and development
management systems systems
Operational Cloud computing Transition research
management systems systems to operations
systerns
Capacity bullding
Met and hydro institutional Stakeholder End-user training and
education and training institutions training outreach
A modernization program for any National Meteorological and Hydrological Service should include
three components, namely: (i) enhancement of the service delivery system; (ii) institutional
strengthening and capacity building; and (iii) modernization of the observation, information and
communication technology (ICT) and forecasting infrastructure,5 which has been followed in
developing this road map. The activities proposed aim to strengthen Uzhydromet’s institutional basis
and to enhance the capacity of staff, to technically modernize observation, ICT, data management
and hydromet forecasting and to advance the delivery of hydromet and MHEWS to the population
of Uzbekistan and sectors dependent on weather, climate and water information.
4
Rogers, D.P., and Tsirkunov, V.V. (2013): Weather and Climate Resilience: Effective Preparedness through National Meteorological and
Hydrological Services, World Bank, Washington D.C.
5
Ibid.
CONTENTS Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP
A high-level overview of the major requirements for each of the three components is presented below.
This collection of activities will need to be adjusted to reflect the actual needs and the situation of
Uzhydromet at the time of implementation.
Enhancing Service Delivery:
ി Establishing and/or strengthening communication channels and developing stronger
relationships with hydromet users including gathering feedback, for improving both the
use and the usefulness of the hydromet services.
ി Developing MHEWS including streamlining the mechanisms for issuing and disseminating
early warnings among the main responsible agencies.
ി Enhancing communication of information on severe weather and hydrological hazards.
ി Improving access by vulnerable communities to weather, water, and climate information
through multiple dissemination and communication channels and socially relevant modes
and communication formats.
ി Enhancing tailored services to critical weather-dependent economic sectors, including but
not limited to:
ി Agricultural services, including an agriculture advisory service with drought
monitoring
ി Hydrological information services for integrated water resources management;
and
ി Services to strengthen resilience in sectors such as energy, transport and urban
xiv environment.
ി Developing a common standard for service delivery.
Institutional Strengthening and Capacity Building:
ി Enhancing the technical and management capabilities and skills of staff of Uzhydromet,
including managing and maintaining modern observing networks; utilizing modern
forecasting tools; and
ി Establishing an institutional mechanism between Uzhydromet, partners and stakeholders
for sharing data and information, and for joint product development and dissemination.
Improving Observing Network, ICT Infrastructure and Forecasting:
ി Designing new and rehabilitating (as required) existing observation networks.
ി Enhancing data management systems.
ി Strengthening the ICT infrastructure.
ി Introducing modern forecasting tools and methodologies, including ensemble prediction
systems (EPS) and probabilistic forecasting to produce forecasts with increased accuracy,
lead time, and spatial resolution based on end-user requirements.
ി Improving hydrological forecasting including flood modelling.
ി Enhancing forecast verification methods.
ി Introducing an impact-based forecasting system.
Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP CONTENTS
Aligned with the Government of Uzbekistan’s strategic planning cycle, this road map lays out three
scenarios for enhancing the capacity of Uzhydromet. These are based on short-term, intermediate
and long-term modernization. They contribute to a system capable of producing and delivering:
(i) timely warnings of extreme and hazardous events and their potential impacts; and (ii) weather
and hydrological forecasts for operations and planning in weather, water and climate-sensitive
economic sectors, particularly agriculture, energy, transport, water resources, and disaster risk
management.
SCENARIO 1: Short-term Modernization for High Priority and Immediate Needs (2 years)
This scenario includes some high priority activities deemed by Uzhydromet as the most
urgent to achieve critical minimal capabilities for improved meteorological and hydrological
services. It focuses on strengthening the organization’s capacity to access and use
available tools and technologies as well as acquiring a modest amount of essential new
equipment. Training of personnel at home or abroad is the main item in this scenario which
is expected to be implemented within two years. The estimated cost of implementing the
activities in this scenario is around US$ 1.5M.
SCENARIO 2: Intermediate Modernization (5 years)
This scenario presents investment needed to achieve improvement in the capabilities
to provide meteorological and hydrological services to the public, and tailored services
to meet the needs of the most important user communities such as disaster risk
management, water resources and, agriculture. These estimates are additional to the xv
costs of implementing the Short-Term Modernization as described in Scenario 1. The
estimated cost of implementation of Scenario 2 over 5 years is US$ 10.4M. This includes
operation and maintenance costs (excluding labor costs) of approximately US $1.2M and
capacity building costs of US$ 2M.
SCENARIO 3: Long-term Modernization (10 years)
This scenario includes investment to enable developing and acquiring advanced capabilities
for providing fit-for-purpose data, forecasts and warnings services for the safety of the
public and support to development of the country’s economy. This scenario is expected to
cost US$ 18.6M implement over 10 years. This includes total operation and maintenance
costs (excluding labor costs) of US $5.7M and capacity building costs of US$ 2,M.
Scenario 1 can be initiated immediately for the most part, where focus is on training in
techniques such as interpretation of remote sensing data and guidance on methodologies
for forecasting. Scenarios 2 and 3 are inter-dependent and should be conducted in phases
to seamlessly build on each other and to contribute to the overall goal of the modernization
progress throughout the short, intermediate to long-term scenarios. Thus, the long-term
scenario assumes the accomplishment of objectives in the short and intermediate scenario
and builds on them.
However, if resources are available to undertake the (intermediate and long-term)
modernization in a single phase, for example, under a long-term scenario (10 years),
CONTENTS Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP
then this scenario will also comprise the activities as described under the intermediate
and long-term scenarios. The total cost of this scenario will be US$28M as opposed to
US$29M which is the full cost of modernization for a combination of the intermediate and
long-term scenarios taken separately, because of efficiencies realized as some activities
will not need to be duplicated.
Socioeconomic Benefits of Improved Hydromet Services
and Early Warning Systems
For a potential public investment to be justified, the socioeconomic benefits it will produce should
be measured against the costs involved. The application of cost-benefit analysis to investments
to modernize hydrometeorological services was explored in WMO et al. (2015),6 and showed that
in general, investing US$1 in hydrometeorological services and EWS results in at least US$3 in
socioeconomic benefits (defined as a 3:1 benefit/cost ratio), and often far more.
It is assumed that any enhancement in the capacity and capability of Uzhydromet will lead to
improvements in the generation of services, which when applied by end-users and stakeholders
will lead to benefits both from reducing risks to life and property and generating and supporting
economic development.
xvi
6
WMO, World Bank, GFDRR and USAID (2015). Valuing Weather and Climate: Economic Assessment of Meteorological and Hydrological Services,
World Meteorological Organization, WMO-No. 1153, Geneva.
Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP CONTENTS
1. Country Context
The Republic of Uzbekistan is a landlocked country located in Central Asia, surrounded by other
landlocked countries – Kazakhstan to the north, Turkmenistan to the west, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyz
Republic to the south and east, as well as a short border with Afghanistan to the south. Uzbekistan
is not only one of the larger Central Asian states but also the only Central Asian state to border
all the other four. It is the most populous country in Central Asia, with a population of 33.5 million
(2019). The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Uzbekistan grew by 5.6% in 2019, making it one of
the fastest growing economies in the world.7
The area of the country is nearly 448,900 square kilometers making Uzbekistan the 56th country in
the world by area. Uzbekistan stretches 1,435 km from the Ustyurt Plateau and the Aral Sea in the
north-west to the foothills of the Tian Shan mountains in the east and south-east. The capital and the
largest city of Uzbekistan is Tashkent.
Figure 3. Political Map of Republic of Uzbekistan (Source: Quora.com)
1
https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/2021
7
CONTENTS Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP
Average annual discharge of the Amu Darya is 78.5 km3 /yr. and for the Syr Darya 37.1 km3/yr.
Around 90% of the Uzbekistan water resources is formed in the mountains of adjacent countries,
making transboundary water a very important issue. There are around 505 lakes in Uzbekistan,
the majority of which are small and located in mountainous parts of the country at altitudes of
2000-3000 meters above mean sea level. Many of these lakes have the potential for glacial lakes
outburst floods (GLOFs), which can trigger floods and mudflows. These lakes are catalogued and
continuously monitored (Dergacheva, 2019).
The physical environment of Uzbekistan is diverse, ranging from the flat, desert topography that
comprises almost 80% of the country’s territory including the Kyzyl Kum and Aral Kum deserts, to
mountain peaks in the east reaching about 4,500 meters above sea level. The east and southeastern
portions of Uzbekistan are characterized by the foothills of the Tian Shan mountains, representing
around 21% of the country’s area, which rise higher in neighboring Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan and
form a natural border between Central Asia and China. The highest point of Uzbekistan located in the
Gissar Range is 4,643 meters above mean sea level.
The lowest point is 16.5 meters below mean sea level, located in the Minbulack depression in the
Kyzyl Kum desert.
Rivers and lakes in Uzbekistan are distributed unevenly. Most of the rivers are in the mountainous
part of the country and flow into the two main transboundary rivers, the Amu Darya and the Syr Darya
(Figure 4), which flow from Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan respectively, and drain into the Aral Sea.
Figure 4. Relief, main rivers, and lakes of the Republic of Uzbekistan
2 (Source: Y. Simonov)
Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP CONTENTS
Formerly the fourth (4th) largest lake in the world with an area of 68,000 km2, the Aral Sea began
shrinking in the 1960s after the rivers that fed it were diverted and irrigation canals were constructed.
By 1997, it had declined to 10% of its original size, splitting into four lakes. Satellite images in
August 2014 revealed that for the first time in modern history the eastern basin of the Aral Sea
had completely dried up. The shrinking of the Aral Sea has been called “one of the planet’s worst
environmental disasters”. Figure 5 shows the Aral Sea water surface in 1964, 1989 and 2020.
Figure 5. Satellite imagery of the Aral Sea
in 1964 (left), 1989 (right) and 2020 (bottom)8
3
8
Aral Sea evolution history. Landsat satellite imagery mosaics showing visible changes of the Aral Sea.
Source: USGS/NASA; visualization by UNEP/GRID Sioux Falls: https://na.unep.net/geas/getUNEPPageWithArticleIDScript.php?article_id=108
CONTENTS Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP
2. Climate
Uzbekistan’s climate is classified as extreme continental, with hot summers, changeable winters and
high seasonal and daily variation of air temperature. Average temperature of the warmest month
(July) is 27-29°C, with 30-32°C in the south; average temperature of the coldest month (January)
ranges from minus 4-6°C in the north to plus 4-6°C in the south of the Republic (Figure 6).
Figure 6. Mean-Temperature and Precipitation in Uzbekistan from 1991-20209
Monthly Climatology of Mean-Temperature and Precipitation in Uzbekistan from 1991-2020
30 36
24 30
Mean - Temperature (oC)
Precipitation (mm)
18 24
12 18
4 6 12
0 6
-6 0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mean - Temperature Precipitation (mm)
Figure 7. Annual mean temperature (left) and annual mean rainfall (right)
for the period 1991-202010
9
https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/2021
10
ibid
Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP CONTENTS
The Siberian High has a significant effect on the Uzbekistan weather in the cold part of year.
Long and heavy winters with persistent frost and relatively stable snow cover are typical for
the Ustyurt Plateau and for parts of the Amu-Darya delta. The winter period is characterized
by intensive development of cyclonic activity over the southern part of Uzbekistan. Significant
warming associated with penetration of warm tropical air masses into cyclones, can suddenly
be replaced by cold snaps. This makes the weather very unstable, resulting in rainy periods.
Precipitation distribution is rather uneven. Annual precipitation varies between less than 100 mm
in the north and in the desert areas, to 400-700 mm or more in the foothills and mountainous
regions in the east and southeast of the territory of the Republic (Figures 6 and 7). Most of the
rain falls in winter and spring, with little rain falling between July and September. Figure 811 shows
the weather formation in Central Asia under the influence of various air masses.
Figure 8. The influence of various air masses in the formation of weather
regimes in Central Asia
5
11
World Bank & GFDRR (2020). Weather, Climate and Water in Central Asia: A Guide to Hydrometeorological Services in the Region, Washington, D.C.
CONTENTS Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP
3. Hydrometeorological hazards
Uzbekistan is close to the global median in disaster risk rating, with a ranking of 112 out of 191
countries. The country ranks in the top 20 in the world in terms of its exposure to drought and
consequent dust storms. Uzbekistan also faces above-average levels of flood hazard.12 Landslides
are an additional major natural hazard risk, particularly for southern and eastern areas.13 Avalanches
and locust invasions also pose threats to the country. Aridity and drought risks are high, especially
during vegetation periods in areas where there is increased water demand and consumption due to
economic development and population growth. Water scarcity, heat waves and increased frequency
of high heat days (Max T>39°C) are the most severe risks from climate change in Uzbekistan.
6
12
Ibid
13
Ibid
Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP CONTENTS
4. Socioeconomic Impacts of Hydrometeorological Hazards
Risks of hydrometeorological hazards primarily affect the agricultural sector, due to seasonal
flooding and periods of drought. Impacts from climate change make Uzbekistan increasingly
vulnerable to droughts, high temperatures, heat waves, heavy precipitation, mudflows, floods, and
avalanches. Droughts may become more frequent due to river runoff decrease, specifically from
the Amu Darya and Syr Darya Rivers.
Drought
Uzbekistan’s arid climate and regular high temperatures make drought an increasingly regular
occurrence, with one drought every five years on average during the 1980s and 1990s and four
episodes between 2000 and 2012. Three kinds of drought occur in the country: hydrological
drought (water shortages due to low precipitation during snow accumulation period in the upper
catchments of key rivers), meteorological drought (usually associated with a precipitation deficit,
and typically occurring in spring or summer), and agricultural drought (a lack of moisture in the
soil that inhibits crop growth). Hydrological drought has been occurring with increasing frequency
and severity in the western areas of Uzbekistan in the past two decades, whereas the central and
7
southern provinces have experienced the highest frequency of meteorological drought. The most
severe drought of recent decades occurred in 2000 and 2001 and resulted in severe economic and
social consequences. Agricultural yields fell and the losses in agricultural GDP were estimated to
be between $38 million and $130 million. There is also extensive evidence of the health impacts
of the 2000–2001 drought, which led to increased levels of water-related illness and malnutrition
in western regions.14 Climate change effects on the two main river basins of Uzbekistan show
increases in abnormally dry and hot periods affecting processes of snow accumulation and melting,
thus increasing the constant threat of drought.
Floods and mudflows
The majority of Uzbekistan is at high risk of either riverine flooding or flash flooding. Intense rainfall
as well as snowmelt events in mountainous areas lead to formation of floods, which often develop
quickly, typically within several hours. The most severe recent flood in terms of loss of life occurred
in 1998 on the Aksu and Shahimardan rivers, killing 109 people.15 The number of mudflows to date
in 2022 has been above average compared to previous years, killing at least 10 people16. A GFDRR
study on the effects of extreme flood events17 estimates that a flood with a 100-year return period
could affect 6% of Uzbekistan’s population (equivalent to 2 million people) and 5% ($4 billion) of
the country’s GDP.
The greatest threat to people, infrastructure and economy is from flash floods and mudflows in
14
Ibid
15
Ibid
16
Authors’ personal communication with Uzhydromet
17
World Bank and GFDRR (2015). Europe and Central Asia - Country Risk Profiles for Floods and Earthquakes, Washington, D.C.
CONTENTS Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP
mountainous and foothill areas of southern and eastern parts of Uzbekistan as well as in the Fergana
valley region which has a dense population (Figure 9). An estimated 3,300 such events occurred
in the country between 1900 and 2013. In general, around 12% of the total area of Uzbekistan
is in mudflow areas; this is where the majority of the population live and cities, irrigation canals,
railways, highways, and irrigated lands can all be affected. Flash floods and mudflows are fed by a
combination of precipitation and melting snow.
Figure 9. Areas with high potential of mudflows and GLOFs formation (Source: Y. Simonov)
8
Mudflows can also be triggered by Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOF), and although this is rather
rare (around 2% of all cases), these events may lead to catastrophic impacts – killing hundreds
of people and causing enormous economic damage. The peak of rainfall-induced mudflows is
between April and May, while the peak of lake outburst induced mudflows is reached between
June and July. Uzhydromet estimates that 22% of the country’s population live in zones with high
mudflow frequency. Uncertainty remains regarding the assessment of impacts of climate change
on mudflow trends.
Glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF)
An assessment of lakes across Uzbekistan found that 15% of these were susceptible to outburst,18
and this risk may increase as the higher temperatures serve to accelerate the melting of glaciers
in Central Asia. GLOFs are the most dangerous and least predictable outburst phenomena, which
18
Petrov, A. et al. (2017). Glacial lake inventory and lake outburst potential in Uzbekistan. Science of The Total Environment. 592. 10.1016/
j.scitotenv.2017.03.068. URL: https://europepmc.org/article/med/28319710
Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP CONTENTS
often trigger formation of devastating mudflows and 680 lakes have been identified as potentially
dangerous in terms of outbursts in Uzbekistan and the adjacent countries (Dergacheva, 2019). There
are 20 river basins where high-mountain outburst-hazardous lakes are located (Figure 10).19 Most
lakes with outburst potential were formed in recent decades due to the rapid retreat of glaciers.
Challenges in monitoring the glacier lakes and their potential outburst in Uzbekistan include lack
of knowledge in using remote sensing data, and lack of financial resources to use helicopter
services for monitoring glacier lakes in the territory of Uzbekistan. In addition, several glacier
lakes are located outside the territory of Uzbekistan with potential threat to communities in
Uzbekistan. Uzhydromet has a limited budget to monitor such hazardous glacier lakes using their
currently available resources. It is practically impossible to predict the exact timing of the onset
of the flood due to a GLOF event, however, it is possible to identify areas where such floods may
occur and determine the periods when such occurrences are most likely (as a rule, this is during
a hot summer period, when moraine and glacial lakes are overflowing with water).
Figure 10. Glacial lakes in mountain areas of Uzbekistan with high potential of outburst
(Dergacheva, 2019)
9
Forecasting floods of various geneses is one
of the main issues in Uzbekistan, where the
transboundary nature of such floods adds
complexity to their monitoring and forecasting.
Figure 11. A glacial lake in the Pskem River
Basin in Uzbekistan
(Source: A. Gafurov)
19
Dergacheva (2019). Climate atlas-reference book of extreme natural processes.
CONTENTS Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP
5. Institutional and organizational analysis and a brief
history of Uzhydromet, its roles and responsibilities
and functions
The Centre of Hydrometeorological Service of the Republic of Uzbekistan (Uzhydromet) is the
state governing body related to all tasks in the field of hydrometeorology in the Republic of
Uzbekistan. The headquarters of Uzhydromet is situated in Tashkent, with 13 territorial (sub-
national) departments in the regional centers of the Republic, in addition to another in the
capital of the “Republic of Karakalpakstan”. The objectives of Uzhydromet are the development
and improvement of the state system of hydrometeorological observations, meteorological,
hydrological and agrometeorological monitoring, provision of hydrometeorological services to
all sectors of economy, scientific research activities, improvement of short-term and long-term
forecasting of weather and hydrological regime in the country, climate change monitoring and its
projection, as well as monitoring environmental (air, water, soil) pollution.
Uzhydromet was established in May 1921.20 The first meteorological station in Uzbekistan – Tashkent
10 Observatory – has been collecting observations since 1867. In the Soviet era Uzhydromet had the
status of the regional meteorological centre in Central Asia. Since independence, Uzhydromet has
served as WMO’s Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre for Central Asia and has the capacity
to run numerical weather prediction models and undertake research and training activities and
make climate change projections. The Uzhydromet scientific research institute NIGMI conducts
various hydrometeorological assessments and environmental studies. The hydrometeorological
college trains professional observers and junior specialists.
Uzhydromet operates an extensive network of 85 meteorological stations, 34 agrometeorological
monitoring sites and 132 hydrological gauges. The Service has 1,958 approved staffing positions,
1,684 of which are currently filled.
The ongoing state-funded hydromet modernization programme aims to improve the working
conditions at meteorological stations and central offices, increase the level of automation and
introduce more advanced methods for weather and hydrological forecasting.
International donors support Uzhydromet modernization through procurement of automated weather
stations and environmental sampling equipment as well as capacity building measures. Examples
of these projects include the “World Bank’s Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project ”
(CAHMP, 2012-2023); “World Bank’s Climate Adaptation and Mitigation for the Aral Sea Basin
Project” (CAMP4ASB, 2016-2024); “Improving the climate resilience of agricultural and livestock
farms located in the arid regions of Uzbekistan, in particular in Karakalpakstan” (Adaptation Fund/
UNDP); and “Enhancing the adaptation and strengthening the resilience of farming to Climate
Change Risks in Fergana Valley“ (UNDP).
20
World Bank & GFDRR (2020). Weather, Climate and Water in Central Asia: A Guide to Hydrometeorological Services in the Region, Washington, D.C.
Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP CONTENTS
Environmental monitoring is conducted in 25 urban areas (air quality) at 60 sampling points, in 60
rivers and lakes at 100 sampling points (water quality) and at 40 meteorological stations (ionising)
radiation. Hydro-biological studies focus on 10 locations in the Tashkent province. One station
tracks global and regional air pollutants at the remote Chatkal nature reserve. Uzhydromet maintains
a website with basic user-friendly weather data and forecasts in real time, environmental quality
reviews and agrometeorological bulletins for governmental and public use.
5.1. Legal status in the Government
Uzhydromet is a publicly funded Government Authority.
5.2. Legal mandate and responsibility
The “Law of the Republic of Uzbekistan about Hydrometeorological Activities”, approved by
the Senate on 19 November 2021, adopted by the Legislative Chamber on 12 October 2021, and
signed by the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan on 12 January 2022, consisting of 30 Articles,
regulates relations in the field of hydrometeorological activities, and states that the legislation on
hydrometeorological activities consists of this Law and other legislative acts. It lays out the roles,
powers, and responsibilities of the Hydrometeorological Service of the Republic of Uzbekistan in
the provision of hydrometeorological services and the monitoring of environmental pollution.
In order to ensure the implementation of the “Resolution of the President of the Republic of
Uzbekistan” dated November 17, 2020, No PP-4896 “On measures to further improve the activities
of the Hydrometeorological Service of the Republic of Uzbekistan” the Cabinet of Ministers
decided to designate the Center of Hydrometeorological Service of the Republic of Uzbekistan 11
(hereinafter - Uzhydromet) as the authorized state body in the field of hydrometeorology, climate
change and environmental pollution and approved Regulations for Uzhydromet in respect of the
following:
ി Legal status, structure, main tasks, and functions of Uzhydromet
ി Rights and responsibilities of Uzhydromet and its territorial hydrometeorological
departments
ി The main functional duties and responsibilities of Uzhydromet managers
ി Procedures for organizing the activities of Uzhydromet
ി Financing and logistics of Uzhydromet, remuneration and financial incentives for its
employees.
Under the Regulation, Uzhydromet carries out its activities in cooperation with relevant government
agencies, business associations, local executive authorities, and other organizations. Uzhydromet
and its affiliates are legal entities, have a seal with the image of the State Emblem of the Republic of
Uzbekistan and their name in the state language, an independent balance sheet, and their own bank
accounts, including foreign currency.
The Uzhydromet structure includes: Uzhydromet central office; Territorial departments of Uzhydromet
in the Republic of Karakalpakstan, Regions and the city of Tashkent; Hydrometeorological Research
Institute; Tashkent Hydrometeorological College; and the State Institution called the “Center for
Development of Information Technologies in Hydrometeorology”.
CONTENTS Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP
The main tasks and functions of Uzhydromet include:
ി Development and improvement of the state system of hydrometeorological observations,
modernization, and technical renewal of hydrometeorological infrastructure, timely and
quality hydrometeorological support to the population, sectors of the economy and the
Armed Forces of the Republic.
ി Providing information on current and expected hydrometeorological conditions, climate
change, the level of environmental pollution, the occurrence of dangerous and natural
hydrometeorological events.
ി Monitoring of the condition of agricultural crops and pastures.
ി Conducting research in hydrometeorology, climate change, environmental pollution.
ി Training of personnel, introduction of modern information and communication technologies
in hydrometeorology
ി Improvement and introduction of advanced technologies in hydrometeorological
observations.
ി Cooperation with foreign hydrometeorological services in exchange of experience and
training.
ി Promotion of hydrometeorological activities and raising public awareness.
On 10 April 2021, the Resolution of the Cabinet of Ministers of the Republic of Uzbekistan No. 200
“On the organization of the activities of the Center for the Hydrometeorological Service of the
Republic of Uzbekistan” was adopted. This Resolution approved the Regulations for the Centre of
12 the Hydrometeorological Service of the Republic of Uzbekistan. According to this Regulations, one
of the key tasks of Uzhydromet is the preparation of warnings related to the threat of hazardous
hydrometeorological phenomena.
5.3. Structure of Uzhydromet
The current Structure of Uzhydromet is shown in Figures (12-14).
Figure 12. Organization Chart of the Uzhydromet
The Hydrometeorological Service Center
of the Republic of Uzbekistan
The Center for Development Scientific and Research
of Information Technologies Hydrometeorological
in Hydrometeorology Institute
Territorial Departments of Tashkent
Hydrometeorology of the Republic of Hydrometeorological
Karakalpakstan, Regions and Tashkent City Technical School
Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP CONTENTS
Figure 13. Structure of the Central Office of the Uzhydromet
Board General Director Assistant
Advisor to the General Director
First Deputy General Director Deputy General Director Deputy General Director
on the State Language Issues
Department of Public
Department Department of Financial and Economic Relations and Mass Media 3
of Hydrometeorological Hydrometeorological Department
10
Support 69 Observation Network 54
Legal Department
3
Department of Department of Material
Engineering Maintenance and Technical Supply 11
Department of Environment International Cooperatice
Pollution Monitorng of infrastructure and Department
52 18 5
Ground-based Systems
Department of Renovation
and Capital Construction Administrative
5 Department 17
Department of Meteordlopical Department of Modernization
Support for Aviation and Innovation Introduction
12 6
Department of Monitoring Department of work with appeals
and Climate Change and performance discipline 4
7
Center for Development
Territorial Departments Scientific and Research
of Information Technologies Operations (First)
of Hydrometeorology Hydrometeorological Insitute
in Hydrometeorology Department 3
Total maximum staff number - 288 persons Tashkent Hydrometeorological
Including managerial staff - 26 persons, operational personnel - 262 persons Technical School
Number of the technical and supporting staff shall be defined in accordance with the established norms
13
Figure 14. Typical Structure of the Departments of Hydrometeorology of the
Republic of Karakalpakstan, Regions and the City of Tashkent
Head Deputy Head
Accountant Communication
Avia-meteorological Center 0-2
Meteorological Lake Station
5-10 0-17 Station 0-74
Team of
Team of
hydrometeorological
Avalanche Station Water Balance Aerological Agrometeorology 0-6
susport of the sectors
Station Station 0-9
0-11 0-7 of economy 0-9
Hydrology
Hydrometsorological Agrometeorological Network Lab Department
Station Network Informational 0-6
Station 0-9 for Air Pollution
0-9 Center 0-9
Monitoring 0-13
Stationary Hydrological
Hydrological Agromeleoralogical
Department of Facilities 0
Station Facility
0-30 0-1
Air Pollution Meteorological and
Monitoring Station Methodical Management
Air Pollution
Stationary Hydrological Station for 0-13 of the Network 0-6 Monitoring Lab
Facilities Heliogeophysical 0-14
0-12 0-5
Including Including
Complex, station Background Total Operation Total Operation
Regions Manager Regions Manager
for high altitude Monitoring number staff number staff
observations 0-7 Station 0-3
Rep.Karakalpakstan 145 2 143 Samarkand Region 122 2 120
Andijan: Region 56 2 54 Surkhandarya Region 119 2 117
Bukhara Region 89 2 87 Syrdarya Region 29 2 27
Number of technical and supporting staff shall be defined Djizak Region 67 2 65 Tashkent Region 249 2 247
In necordance with the established norms?
Kashkadarya Region 119 2 117 Tashkent City 140 2 138
Navoi Region 100 2 98 Fergana Region 90 2 88
Namanean Region 104 2 102 Khorezm Region 75 2 73
Total: 1504 28 1476
CONTENTS Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP
Hydrological, meteorological and agrometeorological observations have been carried out in the
republic since 1972, and this includes the monitoring of the water regime in the basins of the Amu
Darya and Syr Darya rivers and their components.
Since Uzhydromet is the National Hydrometeorological Service of Uzbekistan (jointly for both
meteorology and hydrology), the headquarters, the scientific institute, as well as regional offices
include departments for hydrometeorology, where hydrological observation, water regime, as well as
forecasting and prediction specialists perform their duties.
The regional directorates for hydrometeorology, as well as the Scientific Research
Hydrometeorological Institute of Uzhydromet (NIGMI), have long been engaged in developing
and implementing hydrological forecasting techniques (https://hydromet.uz). The Department of
Hydrology of the Institute has the following three laboratories:
ി The laboratory for mathematical modelling of hydrological processes.
ി The laboratory for adverse hydrological events research and investigation.
ി The laboratory for water resources.
NIGMI, among other tasks, assists the operational units of Uzhydromet in:
ി Preparing recommendations in hydrology and preparing manuals and guidelines for the
hydrological observation network.
ി Processing information from hydrological gauges, studying the hydrological regime of
the rivers of the Aral Sea basin and preparing analytical materials for Uzhydromet on the
hydrological regime and resources of land surface waters.
14 ി Processing hydrological information and providing assistance to Uzhydromet subdivisions
in the preparation of hydrological forecasts and warnings and in general ensuring the
functioning of the operational system of warnings of dangerous hydrological phenomena.
ി Maintaining the State Water Cadastre.
ി Preparing publication of annual data on land surface water resources.
5.4 Staffing Situation
The total number of scientific, technical and managerial staff (meteorology, hydrology, and
environmental pollution), their distribution at the headquarters and regions, and their qualifications
is as shown in Table 1. The average annual turnover of staff from the meteorological specialisation
areas is 30. Currently, there is no separate department in Uzhydromet dealing only with Numerical
Weather Prediction. However, as a national contribution to the development of mesoscale forecasting
based on the COSMO-CA model in the Central Asian region, the Uzhydromet Research Institute
launched the implementation of the state grant “Forecast and development of a monitoring system
for hazardous hydrometeorological phenomena based on the COSMO-CA hydrodynamic model” in
2021. About 15 specialists (ICT, physicists, mathematicians, weather forecasters) were involved in
the implementation of this project.
Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP CONTENTS
Table 1. Staffing situation at Uzhydromet
Positions Qualifications
Total
Total Staff
Management
Actual
Operational
Locations Number Limit
Specialized
Secondary
Secondary
Bachelor’s
positions
Education
Education
(established
Master’s
Support
filled
General
Degree
Degree
posts)
Staff
Staff
staff
Total for
1’958 46 1’738 174 1’684 182 254 939 309
Uzhydromet
Central Office 367 18 262 87 361 86 92 173 10
Regional Divisions
1’591 28 1’476 87 1’323 96 162 766 299
of Uzhydromet
Regional Divisions divided geographically as follows:
Republic of
154 2 143 9 146 4 42 81 19
Karakalpakstan
Andijanskaya Obl 62 2 54 6 57 2 6 36 13
Bukharskaya Obl 91 2 87 2 68 10 6 29 23 15
Djizakskaya Obl 70 2 65 3 58 1 2 40 15
Kashkadarinskaya
122 2 117 3 109 15 6 54 34
Obl
Navoiyskaya Obl 107 2 98 7 97 4 17 40 36
Namanganskaya
110 2 102 6 78 4 12 42 20
Obl
Samarkandskaya
128 2 120 6 113 12 20 62 19
Obl
Surxandarainskaya
122 2 117 3 101 8 9 62 22
Obl
Syrdarinskaya
31 2 27 2 30 3 4 14 9
Obl
Tashkentskaya
273 2 247 24 211 10 12 152 37
Obl
City of Tashkent 143 2 138 3 108 11 11 70 16
Ferganskaya Obl 98 2 88 8 86 10 11 44 21
Xorezmskaya Obl 80 2 73 5 61 2 4 40 15
CONTENTS Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP
Table 2. Staff average salaries per month
Average salary per month
Category Number
In UZS In USD (1 Dollar = 10 600 soms)
Administrative and management personnel 46 8’291’472 782
Heads of departments and divisions (stations and posts) 194 4’678’692 441
Forecasters 89 4’501’930 425
Engineers 399 4’156’690 392
ICT specialists 53 5’544’650 523
Scientific staff 32 3’703’029 349
Observers 1056 3’054’683 288
Meteorological stations 578
Hydrological stations 219
3’054’683 288
Agrometeorological stations 152
Operators in observation stations for atmospheric air
107
pollution
16
TOTAL 1869 3’738’028 353
5.5. Operating model
The current operating model of Uzhydromet is based on a Government Authority with certain
autonomy for budget and staff matters. There are no sources other than Uzhydromet for provision
of weather observational data and forecasts. The Ministry of Water Resources conducts some
hydrometric work at departmental posts located on canals and water dividers. Hydrological
forecasts are prepared only by Uzhydromet.
5.6. Strategy for hydrometeorology
The Cabinet of Ministers of the Republic of Uzbekistan, according to the Regulation “On Measures
to Strengthen the Material and Technical Base of the Center for Hydrometeorological Service Under
the Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Republic Of Uzbekistan” decided in 2018 to approve
the program to strengthen the material and technical base and equip observation points (total
budget UZS 158,928,000,000, or approximately USD13.82M) and the program for the construction,
reconstruction and overhaul of buildings and structures of the Center for Hydrometeorological
Service (total budget UZS 45,190,000,000, or approximately USD3.93M) for 2019-2022. Further,
it decided to determine the sources of financing associated with the implementation of these
programs, including funds of the State budget under the Investment Program of the Republic of
Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP CONTENTS
Uzbekistan for 2019, as well as the State Development Program of the Republic of Uzbekistan
for 2020-2022. The capital repairs and strengthening of material and technical base are through
annual budget allocations for the maintenance of Uzhydromet, loans and grants of international
financial institutions and foreign organizations, as well as other sources not prohibited by law.
(Note: figures source – the 2018 Decree on Hydromet Modernization).
This Decree resulted in an increase in staff salaries and additional funds for renovation and
modernization of the observation networks.
On November 17, 2020, the Resolution of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan No. 4896
of “On measures to further improve the activities of the Center of the Hydrometeorological
Service of the Republic of Uzbekistan” was adopted. The Resolution approved the Concept for the
Development of the Hydrometeorological Service of the Republic of Uzbekistan for 2020 - 2025
and the “Road Map” for its implementation. The Resolution addresses the further improvement
of the legal framework for hydrometeorological activities regulations, organizational structure of
Uzhydromet, the improvement of the system for monitoring, forecasting, and warning of hazardous
hydrometeorological phenomena, strengthening of service delivery system for economic sectors,
and provision of specialized hydrometeorological services. The organization has access to some
WMO guidelines on formulating national strategies for strengthening hydromet services.
5.7. Budget of Uzhydromet
Table 3 below shows the breakdown of the budget of Uzhydromet (2019-2021). According to
information provided by Uzhydromet, the budget has followed an upward trend in the past five
years. Financing the infrastructure, and technical support, as well as remuneration of employees of
17
Uzhydromet and its territorial hydrometeorological departments is borne by the State budget of the
Republic of Uzbekistan and extra-budgetary funds and other sources not prohibited by law.
Approximately, 8-10% of the total income is from fee-based services. A large share of this fee-based
income is from the aeronautical services (approximately 70-80%).
Table 3. Breakdown of the budget of Uzhydromet (2019-2021)
Details of Expenses for the Maintenance of Uzhydromet
Monies received from the Budget of the Republic Of Uzbekistan, 2019-2021
percentages of
In thousands of soms (UZS) In USD21,22
the total budget
Item of
2019 2020 2021 2019 2020 2021
Expenditure
Salaries
(The presidential
Decree was the
26’767’813 28’153’909 73’783’002 2’525’265 2’656’029 6’960’660
reason for a
large increase in
salaries in 2021)
21
Exchange rate used for this calculation is 1 USD=10,600 UZS. The exchange rate in August 2022 was 1 USD=10,900.8 UZS.
22
The budget assumptions in this road map are: Percentages in the last column refer to the percentages of the total budget: green items are 100%
operational expenditures; yellow items are 30-50% operational expenditure. In total, operational expenditures would constitute 6-9% of total
Uzhydromet budget or $0.7-1.1M including env. monitoring activities.
CONTENTS Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP
Details of Expenses for the Maintenance of Uzhydromet
Monies received from the Budget of the Republic Of Uzbekistan, 2019-2021
percentages of
In thousands of soms (UZS) In USD21,22
the total budget
Unified Social
6’597’655 6’971’195 18’313’643 622’420 657’659 1’727’702
Payments
71.8% of total
Total 33’365’468 35’125’104 92’096’645 3’147’685 3’313’689 8’688’362
budget
0.2% of total
Travel budget
Expenses within 98’201 111’608 248’347 9’264 10’529 23’428
Uzbekistan Operational
expenditure
Utility Costs 1.2% of total
(Electricity, budget
Heating, Water, 895’817 1’174’068 1’593’228 84’511 110’761 150’304 Approx.0.4%
Sewerage, Operational
Waste) expenditure
Equipment 9% of total
(Radar, budget
Aspirators,
3’039’746 13’359’738 11’500’000 286’768 1’260’352 1’084’905 Approx.3%
pH meter,
thermometers, Operational
barometers etc.) expenditure
Inventory items 0.8% of total
18
(Furniture, budget
Equipment, 251’399 286’155 1’019’104 23’716 26’995 96’141 Approx.0.3%
Overalls, Food, Operational
Medicines etc.) expenditure
Computer 0.3% of total
Equipment, budget
Computing and 15’223 77’042 378’886 1’436 7’268 35’743
Audio-Visual Operational
Equipment expenditure
Information and
Communication 0.4% of total
Services budget
387’577 396’379 554’576 36’563 37’394 52’318
(Internet, Operational
Telephone, Mail expenditure
etc.)
Aerial visual 0.8% of total
surveillance in budget
mountainous and 740’860 850’513 1’073’996 69’892 80’237 101’320
foothill areas Operational
(helicopter hire) expenditure
Rental of non-
residential 122’425 197’629 220’920 11’549 18’644 20’841
premises
Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP CONTENTS
Details of Expenses for the Maintenance of Uzhydromet
Monies received from the Budget of the Republic Of Uzbekistan, 2019-2021
percentages of
In thousands of soms (UZS) In USD21,22
the total budget
0.7% of total
budget
Fuels, Coal,
612’327 651’950 954’756 57’766 61’504 90’071 Approx. 0.3%
Lubricants
Operational
expenditure
Building
construction,
1’942’240 9’534’528 11’450’000 183’230 899’483 1’080’188 8.9%
reconstruction
and maintenance
Miscellaneous
Expenses
Includes custom
clearance and
15% VAT fees,
(for example
5.7% of total
for radar which
increased budget
this figure Approx. 1.9%
1’088’115 1’561’110 7’084’861 102’652 147’274 668’383
substantially Operational
in 2021), expenditure
licenses and
certifications.
This budget
category 19
includes
altogether
around 50 items.
Total 9’193’930 28’200’720 36’078’674 867’351 2’660’445 3’403’648
Grand Total 42’559’398 63’325’823 128’175’319 4’015’037 5’974’134 12’092’011
Dynamics of
Budget Growth
(% increase in 108 149 202 108 149 202
comparison to
previous year)
5.8. Data Sharing Policy
On 6 August 2021, the Resolution of the Cabinet of Ministers of the Republic of Uzbekistan
No. 501 “On approval of the Regulation on the provision of specialized services in the field of
hydrometeorology and monitoring of environmental pollution” was adopted. The approved
Regulation regulates the provision of specialized services by Uzhydromet in the field of
hydrometeorology and monitoring of environmental pollution by individuals and legal entities,
regardless of their organizational and legal form.
Data sharing is regulated as follows:
CONTENTS Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP
1. General information through website, newsletters etc. is freely accessible to all.
2. Specialised information in the area of hydrometeorology and monitoring of environmental
pollution shall be provided on a contractual basis.
3. Emergency hydrometeorological information is provided free of charge through the official
website of Uzhydromet and social networks and to the Ministry of Emergency Situations.
Data exchange with other government ministries is arranged as follows:
i Bilateral agreements with ministries are being developed and a mechanism is being
established to determine the nature of data exchange (i.e., free and open, or fee-based).
These issues are close to being settled for observational data.
ii For the time being, access to raw data is restricted to Uzhydromet, but some of the data
is transferred to water managers (at the Water Resources Agency), and the Ministry of
Agriculture. In return, these agencies provide Uzhydromet with access to their information.
iii The portal data.meteo.uz is in test mode, with observations of AWSs on display. It is planned
to expand this portal to other observations.
Aviation data is provided under contract, through the Uzbekistan Civil Aviation Authority, on a cost
recovery basis and is a source of significant income for Uzhydromet.
Data exchange with the national hydrometeorological services of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan
and Turkmenistan is arranged as follows:
i. The quantity and type of data to be exchanged is agreed under bilateral programs in the
framework of CIS cooperation.
20
ii. All exchanged information, including forecasts and warnings arrives in Uzhydromet (Tashkent)
by 12 noon each day.
iii. As regards data on glacial floods, it should be noted that their main source is in the territory
of Kyrgyzstan, however, the territories of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan (in particular) are not well
covered by snow monitoring observation stations, resulting in lack of sufficient data.
5.9. Major Users and Stakeholders of Uzhydromet
Over 20 government ministries and state committees including those responsible for agriculture
and food security, water resources, disaster management, health, and energy are among the main
users of hydromet information provided by Uzhydromet. Together with the public, these categories
of users are recipients of the basic and free information, (weather warnings and forecasts).
Main users of hydrological products and services are the Office of the President of the Republic
of Uzbekistan, Cabinet of Ministers, Ministries of Emergency Situations, Agriculture, Water Supply,
Disaster Management, Health, Energy, Infrastructure, and Tourism, as well as other users.
The main users of hydromet products are shown in Annex 1.
The most important commercial user of the specialized hydrometeorological information in
Uzbekistan is the aviation sector. Construction, energy, road transport, farmers and agribusiness,
insurance, tourism, telecom, mass media, and small businesses receive tailored sector-specific fee-
based services and information. Considering that half of Uzbekistan’s population live in rural areas
and are involved in agriculture, weather and agrometeorological information is of vital importance
Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP CONTENTS
to their food and water security. Farmers increasingly request localized and crop-specific weather
data. Uzhydromet is keen to respond to the growing demand and is seeking to further improve
agrometeorological coverage.
To develop user-oriented hydromet products, the needs of various sectors of the economy are studied
through questionnaires and dialogue with representatives of various sectors.
As part of outreach efforts, activities are carried out to improve “hydrometeorological literacy”
through various public education initiatives, including improving the understanding of probabilistic
products and uncertainty. An official website and a “Telegram” (a WhatsApp type of facility
widely used in Uzbekistan) channel have been created, on which, in addition to the forecasts of
Uzhydromet, information on hydrometeorology, natural hazards and climate issues is published.
Media interviews with experts are conducted and excursions to Uzhydromet for students and
schoolchildren are organized.
Currently, Uzhydromet does not conduct socio-economic studies to evaluate the benefits of
meteorological, and hydrological infrastructure, information, products and services to stakeholders.
There is, however, demand for this type of information, in particular when preparing strategies and
plans in various sectors of the economy for adaptation to climate change.
21
CONTENTS Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP
6. Current status of uzhydromet services and infrastructure
6.1. Service delivery systems
6.1.1. Public Weather Services System
Public weather forecasts are issued for 6 days ahead. Weather forecasts and warnings are
disseminated in real time through the Uzhydromet website, social media networks, radio, and
television. Uzhydromet actively cooperates with the national media. It should be noted that in
pursuance of the Resolution of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan No. PP-4366 of June
27, 2019 “On further measures to ensure the independence of the media and the development of
the press services of state bodies and organizations” all state organizations are obliged to provide
regular and timely information to the public about the activities of the organization through the
media, social networks, official websites, as well as other information resources, including press
conferences, briefings and mediations.
Uzhydromet has an official website https://hydromet.uz/. Social media networks are widely used
to access the Uzhydromet information and are a good means for obtaining feedback from users.
Uzhydromet has the following official social media sites:
22
Facebook https://www.facebook.com/uzhydromet
Instagram https://www.instagram.com/hydromet.uz/?hl=ru
YouTube https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCuvcBWoWvTxIE6MTQUlT_uA
Telegram https://t.me/uzgydromet
A special division – the Information Service – is responsible for public relations. It regularly monitors
the users’ reactions to official forecasts and announcements. According to the regulations for all
state bodies, Uzhydromet is obliged to respond to a comment or message related to its activities
within half an hour in an emergency, or within a day if the subject under discussion requires careful
analysis. All materials are published on the official pages in social media networks or are broadcast
live on television channels.
In addition, Uzhydromet annually prepares a media plan, according to which various briefings, press
conferences and media tours are periodically organized. The new website of Uzhydromet contains
information on weather forecasts from 2 to 6 days by regions, news about the activities of Uzhydromet,
an agrometeorological bulletin, and a bulletin on atmospheric air quality.
Uzhydromet does not have its own TV studio, but graphics and text are prepared for broadcast by
its forecasters or presenters. In addition, the population of the City of Tashkent can get the forecast
and warning information through a weather forecast telephone answering machine system. Warnings
of mudflows and avalanches are transmitted to the Ministry of Emergency Situations, which then
distributes them via SMS. Uzhydromet does not use a mobile (smartphone) app platform.
Uzhydromet contributes operational weather information for 4 cities to WMO’s on-line World Weather
Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP CONTENTS
Information Service (WWIS). Official warnings of severe weather are exchanged with the Central Asia
Region National Hydrometeorological Services only (not with the WMO’s on-line Severe Weather
Information Centre (SWIC)).
Forecasts are verified daily in a qualitative form against observations. User satisfaction relating to
the usefulness of the forecasts is assessed through surveys.
Uzhydromet implements the WMO Guidelines for Education and Training of Personnel in Meteorology
and Operational Hydrology (WMO-No. 258) requirements for PWS personnel by meeting the
appropriate education and competency requirements.
6.1.2. Disaster Management Services System
Uzhydromet, in pursuance of the Decree of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan No. 585
dated February 17, 2007 “On measures to prevent emergency situations associated with floods,
mudflows, avalanches and landslides, and eliminate their consequences” conducts on an ongoing
basis analyses and field surveys, including aerial observations by helicopters over the territories that
are susceptible to the influence of these natural hazards. Surveys are carried out by specialists of
the territorial (regional) departments of Uzhydromet twice a year (November-December, January-
February), as a rule, with the participation of representatives of the Ministry of Emergency Situations
(MoES) and local authorities. Based on the results of field surveys, a list of the technical and
residential facilities and farms that are in the zone of potential danger from mudflows, floods, and
avalanches/floods is prepared. This list is sent to MoES and local authorities to plan for measures
to prevent and minimize the impact of hazardous phenomena; for example, riverbank protection
works, construction of temporary or permanent dams, as well as temporary or permanent relocation
23
of residential buildings.
During the spring and summer periods, representatives of Uzhydromet take part in work under the
Government Flood Control Commission to ensure the safe discharge of mudflow waters. During the
autumn-winter period, based on the daily analysis of meteorological data, as well as data on the
state of snow cover and actual weather conditions received from the avalanche and meteorological
stations of Uzhydromet, an avalanche hazard forecast for the mountainous territory of the republic
is issued.
To ensure a systematic approach to timely notification of hazardous phenomena, the Resolution
of the Cabinet of Ministers of the Republic of Uzbekistan No. 1027 of 28 December 2017 “On the
creation of a unified system for monitoring, exchange of information and forecasting emergencies
of natural, man-made and ecological nature” was adopted. This resolution defines the types of
hazardous phenomena and the criteria for their assessment as emergencies in the whole country.
To ensure the exchange of operational information between the headquarters and territorial
subdivisions of Uzhydromet and MoES, a “Temporary standard instruction on the procedure for
interaction between operational and production units of Uzhydromet and the Ministry of Emergency
Situations on the exchange of data in the event of occurrence and threat of development of
hazardous hydrometeorological phenomena” was issued in 2018.
As a result of these decrees, there is in general a good level of cooperation between Uzhydromet and
MoES. Recently a committee was created down to the district and local levels with the participation
of 20 ministries to cooperate on regular dissemination of warnings during the periods when mudflows
and flashfloods are most likely (normally in spring and autumn), under the authority of the Prime
Minister who reports to the security committee headed by the President of the Republic.
CONTENTS Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP
High priority needs in this area include:
ി On-the-job training by international experts of Uzhydromet personnel on producing hazard
and risk maps using modeling and GIS techniques.
ി Preparing high resolution hazard and risk maps for avalanches and mudflows.
ി Training on the use of satellite information for monitoring glacier lakes with potential to
produce GLOFs.
ി Drones for surveillance of avalanche and mudflow prone areas.
ി Development of methodologies for forecasting mudflows through on-the-job training of
personnel at Uzhydromet.
6.1.3. Water Resources and Flood Forecasting Services System
Monitoring and forecasting of the state of environment including those of rivers, lakes and river
reservoirs is one of the main tasks and services of Uzhydromet. Operational divisions of Uzhydromet
issue a wide range of forecasts for various phenomena as listed below.
ി Short-range forecasts:
ി adverse hydrological phenomena forecasts and warnings (e.g., flash floods, mudflows)
ി daily levels (discharges) during spring flood or rain flood events
ി daily inflow into river reservoirs with 1-5-day forecasts
ി dates of ice formation on rivers and reservoirs
ി Medium-range forecasts:
24 ി maximal level (discharge) of the spring-flood
ി decadal water inflow into river reservoirs
ി dates of ice formation on rivers and reservoirs
ി Long-range forecasts:
ി maximal level (discharge) of the spring-flood
ി monthly and quarterly inflow into river reservoirs and for the duration of spring-flood
ി vegetation period’s river runoff for agricultural purposes
ി monthly and decadal (10 days) hydrological forecasts
ി dates of ice formation on rivers and reservoirs, ice break-up dates
ി probability of ice-jam formation and ice-jam water level
The hydrological forecasting system of Uzhydromet operates in different seasons of the year for
different water bodies (in terms of natural conditions, basin area, hydrological regime etc.). Elements
of the water regime are forecast with different lead times that are regulated by water users’ demands
and hydrological forecasting technique limitations. In the case of long-range forecasts amendments
and corrections are also issued. The methodology for hydrological forecasts for different lead-times
is based on a statistical approach with precipitation amount and temperature values being used as
predictors. These statistical linear models were developed during the Soviet era and are somewhat
outdated. The hydrological forecast department does not use any physically based hydrological
model for forecast purposes. The only external tool currently in use is the MODSNOW23 which
is utilized for operational snow cover monitoring and for generating statistical water availability
23
Gafurov, A. et al. (2016). MODSNOW Tool: an operational tool for daily snow cover monitoring using MODIS data.
Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP CONTENTS
forecast models using snow cover area as a primary predictor in forecast models for the vegetation
period and monthly time scale. Currently, the MODSNOW-Tool is in a testing phase for issuing
official hydrological forecasts for different lead times.
6.1.4. Climate Services System
Uzhydromet prepares climatological information and statistics and makes them available for access
by users, but it does not issue any indices. It prepares seasonal climate predictions and monitors
climate change and climate variability. Records of the number of users receiving climatological
products are kept.
Uzhydromet participates in the regional or sub-regional climate research and twice per year in
the North Eurasian Climate Outlook Forums. It also organizes national and sub-national consensus
seasonal weather forecast forums. Uzhydromet uses forecast information posted on the WMO
Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble website and on the WMO North
Eurasia Climate Centre (NEACC) website for long-range forecasts and performs Regional Climate
Downscaling for national purposes. The second phase of a data rescue project is being implemented,
within the framework of which the full digitization of the hydrometeorological data collection of
Uzhydromet has begun.
Uzhydromet has not yet established a National Framework for Climate Services (NFCS), although
plans for establishing NFCS have started.
6.1.5. Agricultural Services System
Agriculture is one of the most climate-sensitive economic sectors. The risks of climate change 25
for the agricultural sector are important because most of the rural population depends directly or
indirectly on agriculture for their livelihoods. Uzhydromet operates 12 agrometeorological forecast
offices in the territory of Uzbekistan. Agrometeorological information is provided in the form of
daily and ten-day bulletins, which contain information on the impact of weather conditions on the
development of major crops – rice, cotton, melons, fruit and vegetables. Considering the favorable
climatic conditions at present, viticulture is developing rapidly in Uzbekistan within the framework
of various investment programs. Various berries (for example, blueberries), saffron, olives and other
crops are also beginning to be cultivated. Uzhydromet has no previous experience, or information
on the conditions required for cultivating these new crops. Therefore, in order to improve the
usefulness of agricultural services provided, there is an urgent need to develop methods for
monitoring the development of these crops and preparing various crop-specific forecasts and
analytical information.
For various elements of the agrarian economic sector, the following products are regularly provided:
1. Ten-day agrometeorological bulletin (updated every ten days).
2. Seasonal agrometeorological reviews with an assessment of the conditions for the growth,
development and formation of cotton crops (3 reviews per year), cereal crops (1 review per
year), fruit crops, grapes, mulberries, pasture vegetation (1 review per year), an assessment
of grazing conditions for sheep on desert and semi-desert pastures (1 review per year).
3. Forecasts of the rates of development of agricultural crops (cotton, cereals, fruits, grapes,
mulberries, desert and seeded herbs, vegetables, melons) with a lead time of 1 month (26
predictions annually).
CONTENTS Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP
4. Forecasts of average regional productivity and gross harvest of grain crops, raw cotton
with a lead time of 1-3 months (4 predictions annually).
5. Forecast of the state of winter crops by the beginning of the spring growing season (1
forecast annually).
6. Estimation of the yield of pasture vegetation on desert and semi-desert pastures for the
spring-summer period based on digital satellite information (1 memorandum annually).
7. Agrometeorological recommendations (optimal sowing dates, harvesting of cotton, cereal
crops, optimal terms of cotton defoliation).
The Department of Agrometeorological Forecasts also prepares analytical materials indicating a
quantitative assessment of the actual state of the main agricultural crops and a forecast of their
development in the near future, depending on weather conditions and the expected state of water
resources. These materials are presented in the form of reports. Reports on the state of cotton are
issued every ten days in the period May-August; reports on the state of winter crops are issued
monthly in the period November-May.
Under anticipated adverse weather conditions, reports are submitted with a forecast of the most
important elements of the weather and their possible negative impact on the state of crops. Special
attention is paid to agrometeorological support during the sowing and harvesting periods of cotton.
For high-quality and effective agrometeorological support of these important events, the following
are prepared:
Instructions on hydrometeorological support for cotton sowing - annually in March
Instructions on hydrometeorological support for defoliation of cotton and the collection of
26
raw cotton – annually in August.
These Directives set specific tasks aimed at timely and high-quality agrometeorological services
for the sowing and harvesting of cotton based on the actual and expected hydrometeorological
features of the current year. To achieve this, a team is organized at the Uzhydromet headquarters
to coordinate work on hydrometeorological support, to promptly assess the current and expected
agrometeorological conditions, and to minimize possible damage from natural hydrometeorological
phenomena.
Uzhydromet does not apply any indices, nor does it run any crop models. Although Uzhydromet
operates an early warning system for heat/cold waves and a drought monitoring and warning system
is under development, it does not have an early warning system for frost formation. It does not use
blended in-situ and remote-sensed data to produce products and information for the agricultural
community, nor does it apply any innovative agrometeorological adaptation strategies in the face of
climate variability and climate change.
6.1.6. Aeronautical Meteorological Services System
There are 13 airports in the territory of Uzbekistan, all of which are staffed with forecasters. Not
all airports, however, perform forecasting services. Four airports (Navoi, Karshi, Fergana, Andijan)
access forecasts from those airports with full forecasting functions. All aeronautical forecasting
offices operate on a 24/7 basis. The organizational structure of the Aviation Meteorological Office
(AMO) is presented in Figure 15.
Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP CONTENTS
Figure 15. Organizational Structure of the Aviation Meteorological Service
UMOA
management - 1 person
OMOGA OMOMA QMS
4 persons 2 persons 3 persons
TAMS NUKUS URGENCH NAVOI
67 persons 33 persons 22 persons 16 persons
SAMARKAND BUKHARA KARSHI
34 persons 30 persons 11 persons
TERMEZ FERGANA
27 persons 10 persons
NAMANGAN ANDIJAN
30 persons 9 persons
SHAKHRISABZ
2 persons
MUYNAK
7 persons
Uzhydromet is the designated aeronautical meteorological service provider in the Republic of 27
Uzbekistan. It provides flight documentation, including Terminal Area Forecasts (TAFs), and Significant
Meteorological Information (SIGMET) bulletins to airlines. It receives Operational Aeronautical
Meteorological Data (OPMET) which is monitored by aviation meteorological units on a regular basis.
International meteorological data and information required for flight planning and safe, economic,
and efficient air navigation are received by the aviation meteorological stations of Uzbekistan from
Uzhydromet headquarters, which in turn receives real-time meteorological information from the
World Area Forecast Centre (WAFC) London through the SADIS system. All aviation meteorological
stations have authorized access to the output products for processing hydrometeorological
information of Uzhydromet. Speed of information exchange by the aviation meteorological stations
is 20 Mb/s. In addition, aviation meteorological stations use information published on official and
other aviation and meteorological websites (https://www.ecmwf.int, www.planeta.infospace.ru,
www.ogimet.com, etc.).
In 2012, Uzhydromet received the ISO 9001:2008 standard certification for aviation meteorological
services at Tashkent Airport. Currently, the Aviation Meteorological Office has in place the ISO
9001:2015 standard certification. Internal audits on quality management system operation are
performed on annual basis in all aviation meteorological stations of Uzhydromet in accordance with
the approved plan. External audits are performed by independent certification bodies in accordance
with existing ISO rules. Uzhydromet meets the competency requirements for aeronautical
meteorological personnel through implementing the WMO-No. 258. Verification of aviation forecasts
(including TAFs) and warnings using a WMO-approved set of methods is performed.
Uzhydromet implements cost-recovery of aeronautical meteorological services which provides it with
a substantial income (Figure 16).
CONTENTS Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP
Figure 16. Uzhydromet revenues from provision of aeronautical meteorological services
2,64 1,36 3,19
2019 2020 2021
Billion Soums
Areas of aviation meteorological services which require further enhancement are:
ി Re-equipment and retrofit of the Uzhydromet aviation meteorological stations with modern
meteorological equipment
ി Establishment of a local area network between the aviation meteorological stations for
rapid information exchange
ി Development of international cooperation in the area of targeted retraining and advanced
training for the employees of Uzhydromet aviation meteorological stations
ി Use of locator data for aviation meteorological forecasts
ി Use of nowcasting in support of aviation forecasting in the Uzhydromet aviation
meteorological stations
28
ി Continued active cooperation with international centers for organization of remote training
of aviation meteorological stations’ personnel.
ി Improvement of the Quality Management System in accordance with the requirements of
WMO and ICAO, including training of employees
ി Development of cooperation in harmonizing the issue of SIGMETs with adjacent countries.
6.2. Relationship with the private sector
Uzhydromet cooperates with the private sector to provide specialized hydrometeorological and
climate services. The main private clients of Uzhydromet are the construction sector, agricultural
clusters, energy holdings, and insurance. However, all activity concerning various systems from
observations to preparation of final products, as well as maintenance are performed by the staff
of Uzhydromet. The “Meteoinfokom” Division is responsible for the implementation of the ICT
systems of Uzhydromet. Although farmers may install observation stations, the data collected by
these private sector providers are not considered official and are not accepted for example by
insurance companies who only accept the data and information provided by Uzhydromet. On the
other hand, Uzhydromet requires that all equipment installed by private sector entities meets the
WMO standards for installation and operation and that the data be provided to Uzhydromet which is
willing to pay for them. Since the agromet observing network is not dense, if equipment is installed
on farms (by individual farmers or joint group of them), Uzhydromet would like to have access to the
data and in exchange would provide specialized forecasts to them free of charge – otherwise the
farmers would have to purchase these types of forecasts.
Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP CONTENTS
6.3. Partnerships and investments
Uzhydromet benefits from projects implemented by development partners in the form of
strengthening the technical and technological capacity of the organization (e.g., installation of
automatic meteorological stations, a mobile laboratory for monitoring atmospheric air quality,
modernization of the RSMC-Tashkent, etc.), and human resources capability (training, seminars,
conferences).
Among the ongoing projects are:
ി The National Adaptation Plan (NAP)
ി The Multi-hazard Resilient Project
ി The Korean Meteorological Agency (KMA) climate data rescue project
ി Capacity building projects through the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI) including the
implementation of SmartMet forecaster station
ി The FAO installation of monitoring systems
ി The USAID training in EWS for drought and remote sensing
ി The World Bank project on modernization of Uzhydromet.
ി The UNDP project for Uzhydromet and MoES with three components
ി Component i) modernizing the Uzhydromet observation networks (25 stations out
of the synoptic network of 81 will be automated and 6 new stations will be built in
mountainous regions particularly for avalanche, snow and weather monitoring; out of
132 hydrological gauges, 90 will be automated for data collection and transmission 29
with observers continuing to be stationed on site at the automated stations; two
X-band radars and 2 upper air stations will be purchased (most likely in 2023); data
storage, climate risk modeling, and building capacity of Uzhydromet staff
ി Component ii) building the capacity of MoES to shift from response to anticipatory
actions; provision of equipment for centres of emergency situations in 7 regions;
reviewing institutional framework protocols, and delivery of warnings to users; data
exchange between MoES and Uzhydromet; and delivery of information to users are in
the planning stage; a capacity assessment for Uzhydromet staff
ി Component iii) support Uzhydromet to establish a NFCS with national consultations
starting by end of 2022; improve Uzhydromet operating model for delivery of services
including warnings.
In 2019 UNDP conducted a feasibility study including staff capacity levels prior to the launch of
the project, but no information was made available on the outcome of this study. In the area of
NWP, Uzhydromet has a license agreement with the European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasts
(ECMWF) for access to an expanded set of the center’s products. It also has a license agreement
with the European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) for
use of “non-essential” METEOSAT data (i.e., data supplied over and above essential data – essential
data is provided for free, non-essential data is made available at a cost) and “non-essential” METOP
data and products for conducting official work.
A list of ongoing projects is presented in Annex 2.
CONTENTS Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP
6.4. Quality management systems
A quality management system (QMS) is defined as the organizational structures, procedures,
processes and resources needed to develop and successfully manage the delivery of products
and services for users.24 In 2012, a Quality Management System (ISO 9001: 2008 standard) was
introduced in the aviation meteorological department of Uzhydromet, and in 2017 it was updated
to the current ISO 9001: 2015 standard. The certificate was issued by the German Certification
Company “TÜV Thüringen e.V” and is valid until 12.01.2024.
6.5. Capacity building
Building capacity through training activities and cooperation with other WMO Members is
indispensable to sustain Uzhydromet efforts to improve its services. Continued capacity
development and access to new skills for new and existing staff are essential. To replace retiring
staff with workers having the requisite skills, it is essential to provide tailored training programs
for a steady supply of meteorologists, hydrologists, engineers, and IT specialists with university
degrees. It is critical to provide in-house courses in line with the WMO competency requirements
to ensure that as many of the staff as possible become familiar with new meteorological and
hydrological tools and software; this training should take place not only within their own working
environment, but also at regional or international training facilities, and twinning with more
advanced NMHSs should also be pursued.
Uzhydromet has a staff training plan and enjoys in-house training facilities through Tashkent
Hydrometeorological Training School, which is part of the Uzhydromet structure, and also a WMO
30 Regional Training Centre (RTC). The training school educates recruits up to the level of bachelor’s
degree which is then pursued at university. The graduates of the training school normally find
employment at Uzhydromet. Uzhydromet participates in regional and international training activities
conducted in other NMHSs or in regional and international training institutions and sends staff on
attachment to other NMHSs. The training school also provides training to staff of other line ministries
such as agriculture and energy, where the Uzhydromet personnel serve as trainers. The staff of
Uzhydromet participate in the other WMO RTCs training events in hydrology, meteorology, satellite
meteorology, and weather radar meteorology. Uzhydromet is a member of the Interstate Council for
Hydrometeorology of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).
Uzhydromet, together with the Tashkent Hydrometeorological training school, has developed national
training programs in the areas of meteorology, hydrology, and natural hazards, but these are not up
to international training standards. These courses are also aimed at improving the qualifications of
specialists from the Ministry of Agriculture, the Ministry of Water Resources, and MoES. In addition,
Uzhydromet has access to and uses e-learning materials such as those provided by COMET.
As a long-term strategy for capacity development, Uzhydromet engages in continuous educational
programmes in hydrometeorology and climate change, including study tours in other NMHSs. In
addition, young specialists of Uzhydromet benefit from leadership programs that are organized by
the WB, CAREC, and GIZ. They also and have the opportunity to undergo training at the Academy of
Public Administration. There is a possibility for staff to participate in the joint double degree master’s
program between National University of Uzbekistan (NUUz) and Hydrometeorological Institute of
Russia in Saint Petersburg. About 50 personnel can make use of this opportunity per year.
24
WMO (2017). Guide to the Implementation of Quality Management Systems for National Meteorological and Hydrological Services and Other
Relevant Service Providers, World Meteorological Organization, WMO-No. 1100, Geneva.
Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP CONTENTS
6.6. Collaboration with academia
The role of local universities in creating a hydromet talent pool for the country is critical. In-country
training opportunities exist with universities and other relevant training or research institutions,
including the National University of Uzbekistan, the Tashkent Institute of Irrigation and Agricultural
Mechanization Engineers (TIIAME), the Samarkand State University and the Nukus State University.
The key higher educational institution in Uzbekistan for training personnel in the field of
hydrometeorology and climate change is the National University of Uzbekistan (NUUz) with which
Uzhydromet has good connections. University students undergo educational and pre-diploma
practical courses in the various units of Uzhydromet, as well as undertaking practical field work at
meteorological and hydrological stations.
An agreement was reached between Uzhydromet and NUUz on preferential admission at the Faculty
of Hydrometeorology of NUUz (based on the results of interviews) for employees of Uzhydromet
who have worked for more than 5 years.
A separate agreement was reached between the NUUZ and the Federal State Budgetary Educational
Institution of Higher Education “Russian State Hydrometeorological University” (Saint-Petersburg,
Russia) on the implementation of a joint educational bachelor’s program in the areas of “Applied
Hydrometeorology” and “Ecology and Environmental Management”.
6.7. Technology infusion
Research in hydromet has a long tradition in Uzbekistan through the work of the Scientific Research
Hydrometeorological Institute (NIGMI) and while the work of the institute is important in transferring
31
research to operations, there is a risk that this work may not be as effective in the future due to
neglect and lack of recognition of the importance of keeping up with scientific research. NIGMI
has been a research partner of Uzhydromet over the past 100 years and tries to solve the research
problems set by Uzhydromet, for example in the case of forecast models which were adapted and
tested by NIGMI and transferred to Uzhydromet for assessment of their performance.
There are a number of projects currently being developed by NIGMI. As has been detailed in Section
6.12.2 “flash flood and mudflow forecasts and warnings” of the road map, the operation of the Central
Asia Regional Flash Flood Guidance System (CARFFGS) has revealed that more detailed information
about river catchments is required due to the local nature of flash floods and mudflows. The flash
flood forecasts need to be more location specific to be of better use to the disaster management
and the population. This is an area of focus for NIGMI which aims to develop a more localized flash
flood/mudflow warning system. The flash flood guidance system is being adapted to the particular
geological structure of Uzbekistan. Similarly, the current lead time for these forecasts of 8-hours is
considered too short and needs to be extended.
Another current project is to design the network of agrometeorological stations and to determine the
optimal allocation of these stations so as to eliminate the need for surplus or sub-optimally located
stations. Other areas of work of NIGMI include developing techniques for drought forecasting and
drought early warning system, temperature forecasting, hydromet hazard maps – a task from MoES
– used by Uzhydromet, fog dispersion on mountain roads, and advice to hydropower stations based
on forecasts for additional water volume.
Unfortunately, over the past few years it has been difficult to attract and retain scientists of high
caliber due to the low level of salaries at NIGMI, and consequently, there is a lack of young researchers
CONTENTS Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP
trained in more advanced scientific and technical domains relevant to meteorology and hydrology.
NIGMI operates with 34 total staff, many of whom have already reached retirement age, whereas
the optimal number of staff is around 70. The cycle of performance improvement of Uzhydromet
through transfer of development through research to testing through operations is not working as
in the past and needs to be restored through recruiting a core of scientists with advanced levels of
education who could be trained in the different areas of operation of Uzhydromet.
Priority areas for future work or NIGMI include developing a digital library based on the existing
large body of work produced by the NIGMI specialists (NIGMI is not included in the digitization
programme of Uzhydromet) and keeping up the currency of expertise and enhancing knowledge
through exchange visits of scientists and experts from other research institutions in Europe.
6.8. Monitoring and observation systems
Meteorological observations constitute the first step in producing weather forecasts as well as
providing baseline data for water resources management, drought forecasting, and determination
of a long-term climate trend. Monitoring and observation systems consist of observation stations
as well as data management systems (data transmission, telecommunication networks, and data
processing and storage). Monitoring and observing systems have two distinct sub-systems. The first
is the global data system, which includes all of the information received via the WMO information
system or the Global Telecommunication System and data from unique sources, such as satellite
products from specific providers. The second is national data, which is a combination of observation
networks supported by different entities—public and private, and crowdsourced data associated
with social networks. This is shown schematically in Figure 17. Modernization of the observing
32 network should focus on rehabilitation of the existing synoptic network to safeguard compatibility
and interoperability between different types of equipment and sensors; it also should introduce
automation of observations to improve nowcasting and very-short-range forecasts.
A ground-based surface observational network can become high value when assimilated into a
common information layer through NWP that then offers a richer, more useable, sector specific
output for forecasters, or when used as ground truth to calibrate radar data. Therefore, a single (or
even multiple) ground observation from an area of interest does not represent the full picture for,
say, water management, without being used as part of a common information layer. Therefore, this
road map strongly encourages a careful assessment of the future needs for data when planning an
expansion or reorganization of the network, which should consider the requirements of the users
and constraints of the operators. Regular preventative maintenance procedures for operational
observing equipment, to be carried out by trained personnel once the network expansion has been
undertaken, will be a major condition for success.
Figure 17. Monitoring and observing systems
National
Monitoring Global Data Data Systems
and Observing
Systems Systems ▪ In situ observing systems
▪ Radar and other remote sensing systems
▪ External data systems - social media, private networks
Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP CONTENTS
The establishment of the Uzhydromet observation network has followed a plan based on user
requirements. The plan gets updated regularly and the organization carries out a strategic review
of the temporal and spatial coverage of all observations on a periodic basis to ensure continued
optimization of the design of the observing system in view of the emerging technologies and
service requirements. The contracts with suppliers of observing equipment include installation
but not maintenance of the equipment. Uzhydromet has a programme of regular maintenance
and calibration of the observation instruments under its control, however a sufficient number of
qualified maintenance technicians, especially for AWS maintenance, is lacking. A main reason
for this is low salaries paid to the IT specialists, which hampers Uzhydromet’s attempts for
recruiting and retaining skilled and knowledgeable staff. A new department comprising two units
for IT and equipment maintenance is being established in Tashkent specifically for maintaining
the new AWSs. Another existing challenge is the homogenization of hydrometeorological
observations from manual stations and AWS due to the varying temporal resolution of these two
different measurement approaches. Despite existing shortcomings, Uzhydromet tries to keep
all operational measuring equipment and sensors in good working condition, compliant with
international standards. However, it does not implement reliability measures based on quality
assurance /quality control (QA/QC) routines and procedures of weather, climate, and hydrological
observations. Uzhydromet maintains metadata records for observation stations. The accuracy of
the instruments is ensured by using the service of a national standards laboratory/institution
6.8.1. Global data systems
Uzhydromet has access to global observational data through the Global Telecommunication System
(GTS) / WMO Information System (WIS). 33
6.8.2. National data systems
6.8.2.1. Surface Meteorological Observations Network
Uzhydromet operates a network of 85 meteorological stations, 34 agrometeorological monitoring
sites and 132 hydrological gauges, of which 68 report on daily basis, while the others are “regime
monitoring” stations. Environmental monitoring for air quality is conducted in 25 urban areas at
60 sampling points, for water quality at 60 rivers and lakes at 100 sampling points and for ionising
radiation at 40 meteorological stations. Hydro-biological studies focus on 10 locations of the
Tashkent province. One station tracks global and regional (transboundary) air pollutants at the
remote Chatkal nature reserve.
The operational surface meteorological monitoring network operated by Uzhydromet consists of
a total of 81 Synoptic stations all of which are operational and produce routine observations.
The number of stations is not considered sufficient to meet the national needs, especially in
mountainous areas – for the optimal Synoptic Network approximately 30 additional stations are
needed.
There are also 75 solar powered Automatic Weather stations (AWS), provided through different
projects, working in test mode (co-located with the manual stations for comparison purposes for
2 years). Since the suppliers of AWSs are different, integration of data is an issue which is being
addressed. It is necessary to automate all available meteorological stations and install automatic
stations in areas not covered by meteorological observations, especially in the foothills and
mountainous regions.
CONTENTS Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP
Uzhydromet is equipped (e.g., using the Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS), and radar)
to make and transmit aerodrome meteorological observations.
There are no independent rainfall stations in the country – the AWS collect rainfall data. In view of
the increasing trend of uneven precipitation, the need for a denser network of rainfall observations
is very high. Observations from 50 synoptic stations are used to produce climatological information,
however, there is no designated climatological observation station network in the country.
Uzhydromet operates 3 Global Atmospheric Watch (GAW) stations, all of which are operational
and produce observations, in addition to 3 snow avalanche monitoring stations and 5 snow routes.
Currently, there is no glacier monitoring station operated by Uzhydromet. The organization is
not equipped with wind profilers, facilities to collect and distribute automated meteorological
observations from aircraft, nor a lightning detection network. It does not subscribe to lightning
data services. However, a lightning detection system is envisaged under a Finnish project in
parallel with the installation of a Vaisala radar in the Fergana Valley. Out of 85 weather stations,
41 are included in the register of the WMO international data exchange. Figure 1825 shows the
meteorological monitoring network of Uzbekistan, including the agrometeorological stations.
Figure 18. The meteorological monitoring network of Uzbekistan
34
25
World Bank & GFDRR (2020). Weather, Climate and Water in Central Asia: A Guide to Hydrometeorological Services in the Region, Washington, D.C.
Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP CONTENTS
6.8.2.2. Surface Hydrological Observations Network
Hydrological observations in Uzbekistan are carried out on rivers, lakes and reservoirs. On rivers,
observations are made on the water level, streamflow, water temperature, sediments, the state of the
river, and hydrological phenomena. In the case of lakes and reservoirs the level and temperature of
water near the coast and at different depths, waves, and ice phenomena are observed. The frequency
of observations of water levels are 2 times per day on manual gauges, and hourly where there are
water level recorders (or automatic sensors). The frequency of sediment measurements is three to four
times per month. In addition to the standard network, there is a specialized observation network, which
includes a water balance station and 10 observation locations for evaporation from the water surface.
There are 132 hydrological gauges in the network, and there are plans to increase this number to
145 by 2025 (Appendix No. 1 to the Decree of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan dated
November 17, 2020, no. PP-4896. CONCEPT development of the hydrometeorological service
of the Republic of Uzbekistan in 2020 - 2025). The map of the gauges is shown in Figure 19.
The hydrometric network density (similar to meteorological network density) decreases mainly
according to the topographic features – very few observational stations are located in the desert
and mountainous regions of the republic. The latter is the most problematic in view of the challenges
posed by frequent flash floods, mudflows and GLOF events.
Figure 19. Location of hydrological gauges in Uzbekistan (Adopted from Uzhydromet Report
at the CARFFG System planning workshop) and hydrological hazards mapping
35
CONTENTS Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP
Based on the data of the observational network, Uzhydromet regularly provides state authorities
and administrations, economic sectors and the population with hydrometeorological and climate
information, weather forecasts, warnings about hazardous phenomena, etc. Information is provided
in the form of hydrometeorological and agrometeorological bulletins, reviews, references, forecasts
and in electronic form on the official website of Uzhydromet (https://hydromet.uz).
In recent years, with the support of donors, Uzhydromet has been implementing a number
of projects to equip hydrological monitoring stations with modern equipment. In particular, the
World Bank project “Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project” (CAHMP, 2012-
2023) provided assistance in the acquisition of equipment and software to improve forecasts
of hazardous hydrometeorological events. Within the framework of the Adaptation Fund / UNDP
project “Improving the climate resilience of agricultural and livestock farms located in the arid
regions of Uzbekistan, in particular in Karakalpakstan”, two systems were purchased for automatic
measurement of streamflow, while the World Bank’s Climate Adaptation and Mitigation for the Aral
Sea Basin Project (CAMP4ASB, 2016-2024) has procured 50 AWS.
Further development of the observation network is necessary. This includes increasing the
number of hydrological (as well as meteorological) stations in accordance with actual needs of
early warning system for floods, especially in the foothills and mountainous regions of Uzbekistan
where there is frequent formation of hydrometeorological hazards. The total number of gauging
stations in the upper reaches of the rivers is insufficient. Of the 44 meteorological stations
located in the upper reaches of the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers at elevations above 3000 m,
only 7 are located in the Amu Darya basin, and 3 in the Syr Darya basin. In case of non-receipt
of operational data, even from one of these stations, a number of forecasting methods of the
36 hydrometeorological situation become inoperable (source: Glacial outburst lakes of Uzbekistan,
2019). These stations should be automated to enable data collection at high frequency. Network
modernization and strengthening especially in mountainous regions will significantly support the
EWS improvements, outlined in the Presidential Decree (Decree of the President of the Republic
of Uzbekistan dated November 17, 2020, no. PP-4896). Alternative ways of observing and
monitoring potential hydrometeorological hazards using remote sensing techniques should also
be considered to cover these data gaps. Another area needing improvement is more frequent
updating of rating curves, to get more reliable streamflow data. In the mountainous regions in
particular, with unstable riverbeds cross sections streamflow data are less reliable due to the
need for more frequent discharge observations and updating of rating curves.
While modern remote-sensing techniques using satellites for collecting data from glaciers are
becoming increasingly available and useful, Uzhydromet reports that there have been drastic cuts
in fieldwork in the high mountain regions to study glaciers due to the budgetary situation. The
situation is similar concerning GLOFs. To make optimum use of opportunities provided by new
satellite technologies, it is necessary to train and build capabilities of staff. To make such training
more beneficial and efficient, Uzhydromet has proposed that it would be best if satellite imagery
interpretation specialists would visit Tashkent and deliver the training on site.
A particular challenge faced by Uzhydromet in some areas of Uzbekistan is vandalism. This forces
new automatic equipment to be often installed near the manual gauges or in other locations which
are protected, rather than where they are actually needed.
Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP CONTENTS
6.8.2.3. Upper air system
Currently there are no upper-air stations on the territory of Uzbekistan. At least 4 stations are needed
in Uzbekistan to meet the recommendations from WMO as expressed in the Global Basic Observing
Network (GBON) guidance. Upper air stations are also needed on the neighboring territories of
Turkmenistan, where none currently exists.
6.8.2.4. Radar system
Uzhydromet owns 4 meteorological radars, three of which are located at the airports of Tashkent,
Samarkand, and Nukus, with the 4th installed and operating in test mode in Bukhara. The
purchasing of a radar for the city of Namangan is underway. These radars are procured from
the state budget. Having been purchased from different manufacturers, the data from these
radars are not compatible. The Samarkand radar is not operational due to software problems, but
Meteoinfocom is not able to resolve the problem. Uzhydromet plans to invite external experts to
solve the software problem.
Uzhydromet does not receive digital data from the radars, and it needs to renew licensing
agreements with the manufacturers of the radars in Samarkand, Nukus and Tashkent. However,
it does not have the required budget for this purpose. Uzhydromet lacks the ability to prepare
a composite from the different radars’ data. In order to fully utilize these radars, an immediate
need (in addition to solving the licensing issue) is training and developing capability to develop
composite radar images. An additional 5 radars are required to fully cover the country’s territory
with radar observation data.
37
6.8.2.5. Remote sensing system
Uzhydromet operates ground station(s) for receiving images from geostationary and polar orbiting
meteorological satellites. It has a direct broadcast station, the only one in the whole of Central
Asia, that is able to receive satellite information directly from the Terra satellite. The data obtained
from this station can help to monitor hydrometeorological hazards in real time. In addition, the
MODSNOW tool26 is implemented at the Uzhydromet hydrological forecast department and NIGMI.
The MODSNOW uses MODIS remote sensing data for snow cover monitoring and hydrological
forecasting.
Since Uzhydromet has used the MODSNOW with success in simplifying the operational tasks, there
is a need for upgrading it to the next version to include monitoring of Snow Water Equivalent (SWE),
snow depth and daily snowmelt. This module was developed earlier in the framework of the CAHMP
project but is not yet implemented at Uzhydromet.
6.8.3. The operation and maintenance cost of the existing observing network
Table 3 shows the estimated annual cost (excluding staff costs) of Operation and Maintenance (O&M)
of the observing network of Uzhydromet. Very conservative O&M costs which are considered a
minimum amount are assumed for all the network components.
26
Gafurov, A. et al. (2016). MODSNOW Tool: an operational tool for daily snow cover monitoring using MODIS data.
CONTENTS Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP
Table 4. Estimated annual cost (USD) of operation and maintenance for the Uzhydromet
existing observing network
Annual O&M costs Annual O&M total O&M costs
Equipment Number of sites
(W/O labor) per site in USD (W/O labor)27 in USD
Manual synoptic stations 81 $1,500 $121,500
AWS 75 $2,500 $187,500
Agrometeorology 34 $1,500 $51,000
Hydrological gauge 132 $2,000 $264,000
Radar 4 $50,000 $200,000
Air quality (60)
$120,000=10%
Environmental monitoring water quality (100)
of total budget
radiation (40)
$944,000 or
Total Annual O&M costs
10,950,400,000 soms
6.8.4. Data Management and Archiving Systems: Data Collection System, Quality Control/
38
Assurance System, and Storage and Archiving
A readily accessible, digital database of meteorological and hydrological parameters is needed to
develop a range of warning and forecast services related to extreme weather and flood events. To
obtain the most benefit from modernization of Uzhydromet’s observation network and improvements
in forecasting and service delivery, it is essential to continue improvements in data management
systems and ICT capacity (Figure 20). This will facilitate data sharing among different government
departments when the protocols for such exchange exist.
A modern software/hardware environment at Uzhydromet will depend on communications
equipment and computers, harmonized database management systems for weather, climate, and
hydrological data including data collection and storage in an automated system (including servers,
software, web access and social media), quality assurance and quality control (QA/QC), validation,
and communication. Such an environment will provide efficient and timely collection of data from
the observational network and will speed up reception and processing of information products
from leading international centers enabling higher resolution products and more information to be
available to Uzhydromet forecasters.
Uzhydromet does not have an automatic data reception, nor a Database Management System for
meteorological data archiving, storage, and processing. Most of the historical data is stored on
paper, but work has begun on the digitization of historical hydrometeorological data. GRIB, GRID,
GMS, WMO format, KN-01, fax (maps in the form of images) are the formats used for receiving
model data from global/regional centres.
27
The O&M costs for manual synoptic stations and AWSs as shown are for independent locations. Given that these are currently co-located, it is
assumed that the total annual O&M costs for meteorological stations could be reduced to USD 220,000.
Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP CONTENTS
In a modern operational environment, the various operational departments of Uzhydromet would
be able to rely on software for visualizing and managing meteorological and hydrological data
and preparation of information and products. Currently most of the work, including checking of
records from different stations and preparation of forecasts is carried out manually. It is highly
recommended that the State Institution “The Center for Development of Information Technologies
in Hydrometeorology” (referred to as Meteoinfocom in Resolution of the President of the Republic
of Uzbekistan No PP-4896) be responsible for providing IT support in planning, developing, and
sustaining software tools for meteorologists and hydrologists for analysis of observed data, data
transmission from stations to servers, the archiving of all meteorological and hydrological records,
the maintenance of radars, and participation in the installation and calibration of AWS units. This
software should make use of modern data base management systems, GIS-web technologies and
should be used in the central and regional offices of Uzhydromet.
The software would allow the staff to look at the observed data, make corrections, do analysis
and processing, and issue meteorological and hydrological products. The visualization component
of the software should integrate observations from all sources, together with informational and
analytical products of operational departments. The software should also facilitate the archiving
of all meteorological and hydrological data collected in Uzbekistan (including historical data), the
application of appropriate QC procedures to the data, and the provision of appropriate tools to
analyze climatological information and to generate climatological products.
The improved collection and exchange of information between countries in the Central Asia
region and creation of a single information platform is an important and urgent task, requiring
the organization and maintenance of regional databases and data banks. This would significantly
increase the efficiency of hydrometeorological services in the region and enable the improved 39
prediction of dangerous phenomena such as GLOFs and the mitigation of their impacts (Glacial
outburst lakes of Uzbekistan, 2019).
6.9. ICT Systems: Telecommunication Systems
(Data Exchange and Distribution System, Transmission)
Figure 20. Information and communication technology system
Information and Communication Technology Systems
External Cloud Data Communication Computer Hardware Telecommunication
Computing Systems Systems and Software Systems Systems
The overall ICT system in Uzhydromet for data flow from observing network to data management,
forecaster desk, stakeholder, and users consists of data transmission from the observing
network to the headquarters via GSM, CDMA, and satellite communications. The rest of the data
transmission is by e-mail.
CONTENTS Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP
As noted earlier the responsibility for the ICT systems supporting the work of Uzhydromet rests with
“Meteoinfocom Centre”. The main tasks of the Meteoinfocom Centre have been defined in the
framework of the implementation of the Presidential Decree28 on the basis of the Information and
Technical Department “Meteoinfosistem” (the predecessor of Meteoinfocom).
The main tasks of the Centre are:
ി To increase the efficiency of hydrometeorological services, the introduction of modern
intelligent systems, information resources and software products that ensure the timely
provision of electronic services.
ി The development of the technological infrastructure of hydrometeorological services,
organization of electronic interaction and creation of a single telecommunication network
for the exchange of hydrometeorological and satellite data.
ി Extensive use of computer centres with capability for rapid processing and analysis of
large amounts of digital data, and hydrometeorological modelling.
ി To improve the skills of Uzhydromet personnel, especially in the field of large-scale digital
data, computer modelling, satellite technology and information security.
Expenditures on the current maintenance of the Centre, strengthening its infrastructure and
technical base and additional financial incentives for employees are financed from the State Budget,
as well as other sources not prohibited by law.
Meteoinfocom with 53 staff has replaced the former Meteoinfosystem which operated with 120
staff. In general, while the IT specialists are responsible for programming, the meteorologists/
hydrologists deal with models. So far, no training related to meteorology or hydrology has been
40
provided to the IT personnel but there are plans to do so in the future. The staff of this department,
including the head are all new with no background in hydromet or integrated meteorological ICT
systems for which they require extensive training. It is acknowledged by Uzhydromet that a team
of ICT specialists is required to support data exchange at regional and international levels with an
understanding of data exchange formats and codes typically used within meteorology. Uzhydromet
also acknowledges that modeling should be developed as a specialized discipline at Uzhydromet.
This development will allow a combination of modeling skills, IT skills and meteorological and
hydrological scientific knowledge to be applied in unison for improvement of the service capacity
of Uzhydromet.
The immediate priorities for ICT development at Uzhydromet include:
ി A mission by an international expert to conduct training on the principles and basics of
an integrated ICT system for the Meteoinfocom staff. An initial training will need to be
followed by more advanced training over an extended period of time.
ി Development of the required hardware and software in order for Uzhydromet to acquire a
Data Collection or Production Centre (DCPC) designation.
ി Adoption of a single code for all data from the new AWS. Since UNIMAS (a Russian built
Message Switching System) is used in all CIS countries (including Uzbekistan), Uzhydromet
wishes to have a coding system that can be handled by UNIMAS and allow the AWS data
to be accepted by UNIMAS.
ി Accessing radar data in digital form.
28
On measures to further improve the activities of the Hydrometeorological Service of the Republic of Uzbekistan” dated November 17, 2020
Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP CONTENTS
ി Data assimilation training for COSMO-CA and potentially for ICON-CA.
ി A server to develop a new data platform.
ി Training on modeling skills.
Tashkent was the telecommunication centre responsible for collecting and processing of data in
Central Asia (including Afghanistan) up to 1990. All data collected in the region were transmitted
to Moscow. The speed of GTS communication within the CIS is 64 kbps and with Moscow the
connection is at 128 Kbps. Internet speed entering Uzhydromet for data exchange is 200 Mbps, of
which 100 Mbps is dedicated to the High-Performance Computer (HPC), and 100 Mbps is for other
operational use. Uzhydromet operates radio facsimile broadcast of meteorological information. It
has implemented the WMO Information System (WIS) with Moscow as the primary GISC and is
expected to have Offenbach as the backup GISC (this is not yet confirmed) and uses GMS and
BUFR as the formats used for receiving observational data via GTS.
The HPC in Uzhydromet is mounted in a pair of 42U cabinets. A modular cooling system HPE MCS
200 is installed between them. The basis of the HPC is a main computer based on 3 Apollo 6000
chassis, in which 30 HPE ProLiantXL230a Gen9 servers are installed. The HPC has 30 nodes
and 1080 cores. The bandwidth of the node’s network interface is 100 Gbit/s. The total peak
performance of the system is 39.7 teraflops. The HPC also includes 6 application servers based
on HPE DL360 Gen9. The raw capacity of the HPE MSA 2040 Storage System is 288 Terabytes.
Uninterrupted operation of the HPC is assured by 2 Uninterruptible Power Supply (UPS). There is no
central server system and different servers are used for data from different sources, including AWS,
agrometeorological stations, atmospheric air pollution monitoring stations, and hydrometeorological
historical information.
41
Uzhydromet does not have a visualization system in the forecast office and forecasters have no
access to forecaster workstations. Weather charts are plotted manually and analysed automatically
with fronts inserted manually. A forecaster workstation at the meteorological forecast department
would significantly improve the productivity and efficiency of forecasters’ tasks.
The reliability and speed of the internet connection has posed a problem for the whole country since
the beginning of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine (Feb 2022) since Uzbekistan depended on
Russia for connectivity. Although the connection still exits, it is not sufficient for transferring large
amounts of data.
6.10. Modelling systems
Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP), including ensemble prediction systems (EPS), coupled to
an extensive observational network, is the foundation of modern forecasting. Weather forecast
modeling is a cost- and resource- intensive process because its use requires well-developed
computer infrastructure, often costing millions of dollars (with associated research and technical
support) (Figure 22). Modern weather forecasting and warning systems cover all time scales from
nowcasting to seasonal.
CONTENTS Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP
Figure 21. Modeling systems
Modelling Systems
Hydrological Global NWP Limited Area Regional NWP
Modelling Systems Systems Modelling Systems Systems
6.10.1. Meteorological Models
6.10.1.1. Global and Regional NWP Systems
Uzhydromet receives model data from ECMWF, but also uses the Global Forecast System (GFS)
model. It has a licence for accessing limited data from the ECMWF and expects that its existing
licence, which is expiring, would be renewed. It does not however, carry out any post-processing of
model outputs for calibration over the country. It performs objective (model) forecast verification.
6.10.1.2. Limited Area Meteorological Models
Uzhydromet runs the COSMO-CA Limited Area Model (LAM) on an operational basis - it does not
assimilate its own observational data in the LAM. Running the COSMO-CA model is dependent on
the operational reception of boundary conditions from Germany via Moscow and was suspended
42
on 28 February 2022 with the beginning of conflict between Ukraine and Russia. The data
transmission has been resumed and the COSMO-CA model is operational and can be accessed
via https://ca.meteo.uz/.
6.10.2. Hydrological Models
Uzhydromet currently uses only linear regression based statistical models. These are developed
considering the linear relationship between known (e.g., precipitation, temperature, etc.) and
unknown (e.g., river flow) variables. Most of these statistical hydrological forecast models were
developed during the soviet era and are still in use. Uzhydromet does not use any physics-based
models. Considering the needs of Uzhydromet to accurately forecast water availability with a high
temporal resolution (e.g., daily), there is a need to use physics-based hydrological models in the
future. This requires the selection of a suitable model and training of staff on its application.
The hydrological forecast department of Uzhydromet uses the MODSNOW for developing new
statistical hydrological models considering not only meteorological parameters as predictors for
forecasts, but also remote sensing-based snow coverage information. Uzhydromet has successfully
used the MODSNOW in the last few years in a test mode. The MODSNOW is also capable of monitoring
snow coverage in any predefined river basin.
6.11. Objective and Impact-Based Forecasting and Warning Systems
As part of the longer-term modernization plans for Uzhydromet, it is necessary to establish a
comprehensive process for operational weather forecasting as is practiced in a well-functioning
Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP CONTENTS
modern national forecast center. Such a modernization process will allow access to the NWP/EPS
digital data and products from a range of global centers; the required hardware and software for
data handling (license); NWP post-processing and calibration (model output adjustment to country
conditions); and production of regional and site-specific forecasts. Fortunately, Uzhydromet has
access to uninterrupted broadband internet, which is essential for moving from deterministic to
ensemble prediction systems (EPS), critical for estimating the uncertainty in the weather forecasts
and the most likely outcomes, as well as the likelihood of an extreme event. Figure 23 is the
schematic of a forecasting system. Other tools for the modernization of forecasting include a
forecaster workstation, implementation of real-time data management, forecast process monitoring
and verification, NWP post-processing, nowcasting and impact-based forecasting techniques, as a
matter of priority. The Finnish system SmartMet (FMI weather information and forecast production
system) will be installed at the meteorological forecast department as part of the FMI project that
started in 2022. Training is required both in the use and interpretation of these products and tools,
as well as in the overall forecasting process supported by standard operating procedures (SOP).
Figure 22. Forecasting and warning systems
Objective and impact forecasting and warning systems
Severe hazard Nowcasting Very short-range Short-range Medium-range Long-range
forecasting system / Flash forecasting forecasting forecasting forecasting
system flood guidance system system system system
43
The weather forecast department is managed by 3 groups working on i) short-range forecasting,
ii) satellite information analysis, and iii) medium range and monthly forecasting, and operates
with 3 forecasting shifts during the day and 2 shifts during the night. Uzhydromet runs 24/7/365
forecast operations. All official forecasts are produced in Tashkent and although de-centralization
was envisioned in the past, currently there exist only 2 independent forecasting offices in addition
to Tashkent. If there are differences of opinion among these operational forecasting offices, the
forecasters hold discussions to arrive at a consensus before issuing the forecasts. Uzhydromet issues
short-range weather forecasts/warnings (6-24 hours ahead), and medium-range weather forecasts/
warnings (2-6 days ahead and monthly) on a regular basis. Forecasts for 7-10 days ahead are issued
upon request. No seasonal forecasting is performed. The public weather forecasts cover 6 days
ahead and some interpretation of the forecasts and warnings is provided to the users to help them
understand the impacts of hazardous weather. Sand and dust storm forecasts are also produced
and disseminated. Uzhydromet does not produce nowcasting (0-6 hours ahead) on a regular basis,
although nowcasts are produced for Tashkent only during hazardous weather e.g., strong winds
and are disseminated via social media for quick transmission to the public. Impact-based forecast
products and services are not produced. Routine forecast verifications are performed daily and the
results are published in weekly weather bulletins on the official website of Uzhydromet.
Weather warnings are issued for wind, dust (sand) storms, blizzards, heavy rain, heavy snow, hail,
severe frost, frost in the air and on the soil surface which can impact crops during the growing
or harvest period, intense heat, abnormally cold weather (5 days or more with average daily air
temperature of 7°C or more below the climatic norm), and abnormally hot weather (5 days or more,
CONTENTS Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP
with average daily air temperature of 7°C or more above the climatic norm).
Uzhydromet plays an important role in the WMO Global Data-processing and Forecasting System
(GDPFS). Tashkent Centre is the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) and produces
guidance for short-range forecasts for all Central Asian countries. Uzhydromet participates in
the WMO Severe Weather Forecasting Programme (SWFP) for Central Asia. Development and
implementation of SWFP for the Central Asian region (https://community.wmo.int/swfp-central-asia)
to improve NWP capacity at RSMC Tashkent played an important role in the provision of enhanced
meteorological products for operational hydrology. As a result of this project the COSMO-CA model
has been implemented with several domains – a larger domain with 6.6 km spatial resolution for the
entire Central Asia. While Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan also have a 2.2 km domain, in Uzbekistan the 2.2
km spatial resolution only applies to the mountainous regions (Figure 23).
Figure 23. NWP COSMO-CA Central Asian and Mountain domains
44
The development and initial implementation of COSMO-CA took place in Roshydromet with
subsequent transfer of software and all relevant installations to Tashkent RSMC. Sustainability of
routine calculations of the NWP system has to be improved to achieve sustainable 24/7 operation
of the system for all domains.
One of the most important meteorological products for hydrology is the observed and forecast
mean areal precipitation (MAP) over a river basin. These products are of direct use for hydrological
forecasting models and other related hydrometeorological services. Observed MAP is based on
Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP CONTENTS
different sources of data, including precipitation gauges, weather radars and satellite products,
as well as forecast precipitation from NWP models in case of forecast mean areal precipitation
(FMAP). Such products are of vital interest in Uzbekistan due to the local nature of GLOF and flash
flood formation in mountainous regions of the country. In addition to MAP and FMAP products
mean areal temperature estimation (MAT) and its forecasts (FMAT) are used as well for many
purposes, for example to estimate melt rate of snow and glaciers as significant contributors to
flooding in upper catchments of the country.
The above listed products are available within the Central Asia Regional Flash Flood Guidance
System (CARFFGS), developed and implemented for Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan,
and Turkmenistan (https://community.wmo.int/central-asia-region-flash-flood-guidance-system-
carffgs). The CARFFGS is currently operational at Kazhydromet.
MAP and FMAP products are routinely produced within the CARFFGS based on the COSMO-
CA model outputs (Figure 24). These products can be used for different hydrological and
hydrometeorological applications, including hydrological forecasting of different timeframes, and
agrometeorological products.
It is important however, for Uzhydromet to be capable of producing MAP products based on other
data sources, including meteorological observations, and weather radars. This issue is linked with
further development of the meteorological network of stations, especially in hilly and mountainous
regions, to improve the reliability of potential MAP product in the most vulnerable areas of the
country, affected by floods of different origins.
Figure 24. Mean areal precipitation (MAP) for the watersheds of 45
Uzbekistan for 24 hours’ time step
CONTENTS Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP
Another potential means to enhance meteorological products for hydrology, in particular EWS
of hydrological adverse events, is the installation of additional weather radars and making use
of them for hydrology – creating fields (mosaic) of observed and forecasted precipitation. This
would substantially improve the accuracy of CARFFGS products for the area of Uzbekistan and
would support EWS for flash floods and mudflow.
Immediate priority needs for the forecasting department include:
ി Installation and training on forecaster workstation.
ി Training on the use of radar data and compositing.
ി Training on the use and interpretation of satellite data for weather forecast.
ി Access to high resolution (30 meters) satellite imagery.
6.12. Hydrological forecasting systems
An important aspect of strengthening the capacity of an NMHS is to increase the lead-time and
improve the quality of forecasts, to develop methods for forecasting especially the hazardous
hydrometeorological phenomena, as well as the development of approaches and the introduction
of methods for assessing the economic benefits of the activities of the NMHS. In this regard, it
is necessary to develop a comprehensive plan for scientific research to optimize the observation
network, weather forecasting, and methods for assessing climate risks to ensure national security
and the transfer of scientific developments into operations.
Modeling, building and implementing forecasting techniques for the rapid-onset adverse
hydrological phenomena (e.g., flash floods, mudflows and GLOFs) are among the major goals of
46
Uzhydromet and its structural subdivisions. This is outlined as well in the Concept for Development
of Hydrometeorological Service of the Republic of Uzbekistan in 2020-2025.29
The NIGMI has been developing and implementing hydrological forecasting techniques for some
years and is now undergoing modernization and upgrade of its equipment in order to create a state-
of-the-art technical basis for efficient and high-quality research into flood forecasting).30
6.12.1. GLOFs modeling and forecasting
Forecasting GLOFs is crucial as they have a very localized nature – it involves specific formation
(outburst) processes, and the resulting impacts can be substantial. It is practically impossible to
predict the time of the beginning of the flood in the event of a breakthrough of glacial and moraine
lakes. The important thing, based on the results of the analysis of cases of outburst floods, is to
identify areas where such floods are possible (Figure 10), and to determine the periods when their
occurrence is most likely. Following this, an analysis of the intra-annual distribution of mudflows of
various geneses should be carried out to determine the period of occurrence of mudflows.
The development and sustaining of a catalogue of mountain lakes with outburst potential, as well
as their characteristics (e.g., morphometric characteristics, lake area, volume, area of potential
influence, state of the natural dam, etc.) is a crucial task for Uzhydromet, and involves analysis
of high-resolution satellite imagery, organization of regular geomorphological and glaciological
surveys, as well as application of analytical tools, such as GIS. The information system “Outburst
lakes of Uzbekistan” has been developed by the NIGMI (Dergacheva, 2019).
29
Annex No 1 to the Resolution of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan dated November 17, 2020, No PP-4896.
30
ibid
Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP CONTENTS
Based on the results of the analysis carried out on long-term observations of high-mountain lakes,
680 lakes were identified on the territory of the Republic of Uzbekistan and adjacent territories, the
breakthrough of which would have serious socioeconomic impacts on Uzbekistan.
The largest number of lakes with outburst potential are located in the basins of Pskem, Isfairamsay,
Shakhimardan, Sokh, and Isfara rivers. The vast majority of lakes in these river basins, except for the
Pskem River basin, are located outside the Republic of Uzbekistan, on the territory of Kyrgyzstan,
but their outbursts directly threaten the territory of Uzbekistan.
The vast majority of GLOF triggered mudflows are observed in June and July when temperatures
are highest. Under extreme conditions almost all mountain lakes are prone to outbursts; therefore,
in all densely populated mountain valleys with lakes in their upper reaches, it is necessary to take
measures to reduce the risk from the potential impacts of outburst floods.
In terms of strengthening the GLOFs early warning system it is recommended to continue improving
the GIS catalogue and regular surveys of the lakes with outburst potential, including utilization of
many sources of informational products – including high resolution satellite data. Transboundary
collaboration and data exchange have an important role to play in this effort because of the number
of lakes with outburst potential which are located outside the territory of Uzbekistan.
Immediate priority needs to improve the monitoring of glacier lakes and the potential outburst
include:
ി Training on the use and interpretation of high-resolution satellite data (e.g., Sentinel) for
the purpose of GLOF Monitoring.
ി Further development of GIS based inventory of hazardous glacier lakes in the territory of
Uzbekistan. 47
ി Field surveys to monitor hazardous glacier lakes, including areal visualization by helicopters.
6.12.2. Flash floods and mudflows forecasts and warnings
Flash floods and mudflows are two fast-developing adverse hydrometeorological phenomena,
with significant potential danger to the population and economy of Uzbekistan. According to the
Presidential Decree31 introduction of innovative methods for hydrometeorological forecasting for
adverse fast developing phenomena, should aim to increase the reliability of forecasts from 92 to
95 percent for one day ahead, from 90 to 92 percent for 2-3 days ahead, and from 88 to 90 percent
for 4-5 days ahead. There is a need for a robust verification system to allow these reliability figures
to be estimated.
Development of techniques for flash floods and mudflow forecasting has been the focus of
Uzhydromet in recent years. Prior to the development and implementation of the flash flood
guidance system, which is briefly outlined below, national early warning techniques for flash floods
and mudflows were widely based on the rainfall threshold approach. The total precipitation of 15
mm in the last 24 hours was mainly used as a threshold criteria to issue mudflow forecasts.
Hazard maps of avalanches and mudflows exist but these are of coarse resolution. There is a need
to refine the resolution of these maps and use GIS tools to build different data layers. Currently,
there is no in-house GIS expertise in Uzhydromet, but the cadastre agency works with Uzhydromet
and provides them with data. While training on using modern technologies such as GIS was provided
to the staff in the past, Uzhydromet could not retain the trained staff due to low salaries. New maps
31
Decree of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan dated November 17, 2020, No. PP-4896
CONTENTS Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP
of Uzbekistan are being prepared to include meteorological data. These maps can then be further
refined by Uzhydromet, but it needs to build capacities in preparing hazard maps. However, only 5
out of 9 established positions are filled for this kind of technical work.
One of the recent advances in flash flood and mudflow forecasting is the implementation of
CARFFGS in 2015-2016 (https://community.wmo.int/central-asia-region-flash-flood-guidance-
system-carffgs). The system takes advantage of the NWP products developed through the SWFP-
Central Asia. The SWFP-Central Asia was developed as part of the Central Asia Hydrometeorological
Modernization Project (CAHMP) funded by the World Bank and led by the Central Asia Regional
Centre for Hydrology based in Kazakhstan. The programme provides high resolution meteorological
forcing inputs of mountainous areas of Uzbekistan and adjacent countries into the CARFFGS.
Products of CARFFGS system are used in operational forecasting to issue flash flood and mudflow
warnings. One such case happened in the end of September 2017, when GARFFGS products
indicated high potential of flash flood and mudflow formation in the Tashkent region.
Operation of CARFFGS has revealed that more detailed information of river catchments is required
due to the local nature of flash floods and mudflows. This is the case for Uzbekistan and Tajikistan
transboundary catchments. In order to achieve this, a GIS project has been formed with all relevant
layers of electronic information.
CARFFGS also includes other products – for example, Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF),
soil moisture, flood threat indices calculation, which are also used in operational flood forecasting
(as well as hydrological forecasting in general).
There is an ongoing project on improving adaptation of the CARFFGS outputs to local GIS system
to account for local relief and administrative division peculiarities. This adaptation will play an
48
important role in further improving the capabilities of CARFFGS.
The CARFFGS is currently being further extended by including new modules such as a riverine
routing, landslide enhancement and seasonal to sub seasonal prediction of river flow. This extension
is being carried out in the framework of the Central Asia Flood Early Warning System (CAFEWS)
project (https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/infographic/2021/12/10/cafews) that is financed by
the World Bank. It is also planned to develop a CAFEWS data and forecast sharing platform for
hydrometeorology in the framework of this project. Landslides fall under the responsibility of the
State Committee for Geology. The US Geological Survey (USGS) together with Uzhydromet and
State Committee for Geology launched a joint project in 2022 with the aim of testing a new landslide
model in Uzbekistan, which is being piloted in the Kashkadarya River Basin in the southern part of
Uzbekistan. The model will be scaled up if the pilot is successful; however, the pilot phase will last
around 4 years.
The new Sustainability Strategy for the FFGS with global coverage (FFGS/WGC) has been developed
and approved by WMO in 2021. The Strategy aims to improve sustainability of the system in many
ways, including the following key components: developing an inclusive and broadened governance
model, increasing and strengthening training efforts, increasing the visibility of the FFGS, and
developing additional financial and human resource support. Implementation of the strategy will
result in more sustainable flash flood products for the national early warning systems, including
in Uzbekistan.
It is important that Uzhydromet becomes actively involved in the emerging governance model of
the FFGS/WGC and as the National Centre for FFGS conveys its proposals for current and further
development to the Programme Management Committee.
Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP CONTENTS
6.12.3 Medium-term and long-range hydrological forecasts
Other important types of hydrological forecasting services include long-range streamflow forecasts,
as well as inflow forecasts into the reservoirs of the country up to monthly, seasonal and 6 months
ahead. These services as well as research conducted in this area play important roles in water
resource management in Uzbekistan due to the water consumption by many sectors of economy.
Long-range forecasting is performed by Uzhydromet only for some reservoirs.
Long-term hydrological forecasts mainly use statistical and physics-statistical techniques,
which are based on linkages between streamflow (and inflow into reservoirs) and the main
hydrometeorological factors, including accumulated snowpack in the mountains. To account for
the latter, snow surveys are organized in mountain river basins with high influence (the so-called
indicator basins), or indicators are used (e.g., winter period total precipitation). An early warning
system for drought was developed by the specialists at NIGMI under the Adaptation Fund. This
system has been piloted in the Amu Darya region.
49
CONTENTS Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP
7. Modernization of meteorological and hydrological services
and early warning system
A project for modernizing NMHS may be implemented in a phased approach stretching over a number
of years as long as the initial plan takes into consideration every component of every system and
the level of improvement needed. At the end of the implementation of the plan, the process should
ensure NMHSs can deliver the services stakeholders expect. This includes new technologies for
observation and data recording, data validation and archiving, and modern tools for forecasting,
dissemination and communication of products and services. The adopted approach should follow a
structured and long-term plan based on a sound strategy.
The evolution of Uzhydromet from its current status into a more modern NMHS should be planned in
stages, covering a short-term stage (2 years), an intermediate stage (5 years) and a longer term stage
(10-15 years). The concept of a value chain is used to illustrate and discuss this evolution.
50
Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP CONTENTS
8. The hydrometeorological value chain
The term value chain is used frequently in meteorology to describe the general relationship
between different activities in each system and subsystem. It conveys an important construct,
namely the production of value and is a useful way of exploring the organization and performance of
an NMHS. Figure 25, adopted from Thorpe and Rogers (2021),32 provides one interpretation of the
meteorological value chain. It has five links – observations, models and analytics, forecasts, tailored
services, and integrated services. Each link is the product of science and technology infusion, and
each provides social and economic benefit.33
Observations are a foundational element of the value chain. Meteorological observations created
as part of an NMHS public task are recognized as high value datasets and in many countries are
provided as open data to anyone to use and reuse.34,35 Within the NMHS, these data are integral to the
production of higher value products and services.
Models and Analytics includes numerical weather prediction whether produced locally or accessed
through global and regional production centres.
Forecasts includes the production of basic meteorological and hydrological forecasts and warnings.
51
Tailored services are nominally made for a single beneficiary or sector – aeronautical meteorological
services, for example.
Integrated services shift the responsibility for the service to beneficiary. These are often co-produced
by different entities. In the case of an integrated marine service, for example, this might include
logistical data, navigation data, vessel performance data, port information, sea conditions, and so on.
Together, these create a decision support system that optimizes performance. Similarly, integrated
services include impact forecasts and warnings created collectively by disaster management
agencies, meteorological and hydrological services working together.
Thorpe, A., and Rogers, D. (2021). Creating Value in the Weather Enterprise, World Bank, Washington D.C.
32
33
Rogers, D.P., Staudinger, M., Tsirkunov, V., Suwa, M., and Kootval, H. (2022). Affordability of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services,
World Bank, Washington D.C.
34
Rogers, D.P. and Tsirkunov, V.V. (2021). Open data: A Path to Climate Resilience and Economic Development in South Asia?, World Bank,
Washington D.C.
35
Rogers, D.P., Tsirkunov, V.V., Thorpe, A., Bogdanova, A-M, Suwa, M., Kootval, H., Hodgson, S., and Staudinger, M (2021). The Level Playing Field and
the Business of Weather, Water and Climate Services. World Bank, Washington D.C.
CONTENTS Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP
Figure 25. The meteorological value chain, shown in blue, utilizes new knowledge, shown
in lilac, to create social and economic benefits shown in green
(Source: Thorpe and Rogers 202136)
Science and
Value Chain Benefits
Technology
Integrated Services
Tailored Services
Science and Social and
Technology Forecasts Economic
Innovation Benefits
Models and Analytics
Observations
52
The Power of Partnership37 introduced two important elements to the meteorological value chain
– sector balance between public, private and academic actors, and the maturity level of each link
(Figure 26).
Figure 26. Sector balance and maturity diagram based on hydromet value chain. An
advanced value chain is shown in this figure. (Source: World Bank 2019)
Numerical Generate Issue official Tailored Business data
Observations weather Forecasts warnings services integration
prediction
Value Chain Notable
Size coding for Substantial
Color coding Academia
for sectors relative importance
and maturity Private of sector Dominant
Public
Advanced Intermediate Low N/A, Unknown
36
Thorpe, A., and Rogers, D. (2021). Creating value in the Weather Enterprise, World Bank, Washington D.C.
37
World Bank and GFDRR (2019). The Power of Partnership: Public and Private Engagement in Hydromet Services, Washington, D.C.
Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP CONTENTS
The elements in the Power of Partnership value chain differ from Thorpe and Rogers (2021) primarily
in name rather than substance, except for the explicit inclusion of Issue official Warnings as a
separate element. Examples of the activities that contribute to each link in the value chain are
shown in Figure 27.
Figure 27. Examples of the activities that contribute to each link in the value chain
(Source: Thorpe and Rogers 2021)
Business data Disaster risk management Health data
integration data integration integration
Integrated Services • aviation • impact forecasts and • impact based heat hesith
• marine warnings forecasts and warnings
• agriculture • early action and response • impact-bused air quality
long term planning forecasts and warnings
• insurance
Postcode Aviation Marine Policy
Tailored Services scale forecasts weather forecasts weather forecasts quidance
0-15 day Weather Seasonal Climate
Forecasts forecasts warnings forecasts prediction
Numerical Data Artificial Machine
53
Models and Analytics weather analytics intelligence learning
prediction
National Other agency Private Business Global
meteorological and crowd meteorological data data
Observations and hydrological sourced data and hydrological
network network
The notion of maturity, defined in The Power of Partnership (World Bank 2019), is a complementary
way of exploring the value chain. By highlighting the level of maturity, it is possible to a first order to
understand where interventions are likely to be needed and have a positive impact.
The generic illustrations of a weather, climate, or hydrological system of systems and subsystems
to identify the current status of any NMHS and to visualize improvements required in each system,
component by component, to achieve a particular level of improvement have been shown in Figures
1 and 2.
CONTENTS Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP
9. Current capacity and maturity of Uzhydromet
The existing operational capacity of Uzhydromet was described in section 6 of this roadmap. Using the
value chain approach and activities in each link of the chain, these capacities are illustrated in Figure 28.
Figure 28. Schematic of Uzhydromet current Value chain
Models Forecasts Tailored Integrated
Observations
& Analytics Services Services
ICT Infrastructure Education & Training
Advanced Intermediate Low Unknown / None
54
Uzhydromet occupies all 6 links in the production and delivery in the value chain as well as the
Education and Training link. The observation network of Uzhydromet (observation link) comprises
85 stations of which 81 are synoptic; 75 AWSs co-located with the manual stations; 132 hydrological
gauges; 3 GAW stations; 3 avalanche stations; 5 snow route and glacier stations; an environmental
(water quality, air quality, and radiation) monitoring network at 100 (water), 60 (air) and 40 (radiation)
sampling points; 4 radars; and a ground satellite receiving station. This is a comprehensive coverage
of ground-based hydrometeorological components. The major gaps are in the lack of upper air and
climate stations and more complete weather radar coverage. There is also a need for more synoptic
stations, hydrological gauges and AWSs. An intermediate maturity level can be assigned to the
meteorological observation link.
The models and analytics link is in an intermediate maturity level since Uzhydromet has access to
model data from ECMWF and runs the COSMO-CA Limited Area Model (LAM) on an operational basis.
Uzhydromet runs hydrological models including statistical models. It performs objective (model)
forecast verification; however, it does not assimilate any of its own data into the models and there
is no post-processing currently.
The forecasts link is considered to be at an intermediate maturity level. This is because Uzhydromet
runs a weather forecasting operation on a 24/7/365 basis and produces short-range (6-24 hrs) and
medium-range (2-6 days and monthly) forecast on a regular basis, with forecasts for 7-10 days
ahead issued upon request; produces PWS forecasts up to 6 days ahead and provides some limited
interpretation of the forecasts to users; issues warnings of hazardous weather; prepares and issues
sand and dust forecasts; and performs daily qualitative verification of weather forecasts against
Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP CONTENTS
observations. No impact-based forecasting or nowcasting are performed by Uzhydromet. The
NIGMI has been developing and implementing hydrological forecasting techniques for some years.
In recent years, the MODSNOW tool was used to develop statistical hydrological forecasting models
that are currently being tested at Uzhydromet. Also, a catalogue of hydrological forecast models
was developed together with Uzhydromet specialists based on the MODSNOW-Tool. This catalogue
includes all statistical forecast models where remote sensing-based snow cover area is used as a
main predictor for hydrological forecasting. Uzhydromet has a strong focus on forecasting GLOFs,
flash floods and mudflows. One of the recent advances in flash floods and mudflow forecasting is
the implementation of CARFFGS at the NMHS of Kazakhstan, which provides access to products
for Uzhydromet.
The tailored services link in the value chain is used to include any service to which value has
been added beyond the forecasts link. In the case of Uzhydromet, the tailored services link is at
an intermediate maturity level since public weather forecasts and warnings are issued through
Uzhydromet’s own website, SMS, social media, and television (broadcast of forecasts by presenters
or forecasters). No mobile platforms are used. User feedback collection is not done on a regular
basis. Agromet (10-day) bulletins and seasonal reviews, and some other products are produced and
disseminated. Drought monitoring and warnings are conducted but no crop modelling is performed.
Hydrological services include short, -medium and long-range forecasts and information including
those for flash floods, mudflows, GLOFs, inflow into river reservoirs, and daily and maximal levels
(discharge) of the spring flood. Uzhydromet performs regional climate downscaling, prepares and
issues climatological information and statistics and makes them available for access by users,
but it does not issue any indices. As the designated aeronautical meteorological service provider,
Uzhydromet produces and provides all the necessary flight documentation to airlines and is ISO-
certified (the certificates are up to date). Uzhydromet collaborates with Ministry of Emergency 55
Situations and local authorities and does exchange information with the Ministry.
The integrated services link is at a low level since there is no co-production of services, even with
the DRM authorities. Collaborations follow the traditional tailored services approach. Multi-hazard
Early Warnings Services (MHEWS) are missing and need to be established.
The ICT link is also at a low level of maturity for the meteorological component. Uzhydromet has
a High-Performance Computer (HPC), and a GTS link with a speed of 64 and 128 kbps to allow
international and regional data exchange. It is certified as a national WIS centre and will acquire
the status of a Data Collection or Production Centre (DCPC) in the future, although it is not known
yet when this might happen. It has implemented the WIS with Moscow as the primary GISC and is
expected to have Offenbach as the backup GISC (this is not yet confirmed) and uses the BUFR code,
although currently GTS is being used in parallel with WIS. However, there is no central ICT system,
no data integration, or automatic data transfer from the stations. The meteorological observations
are transferred via GSM or email. Weather charts are plotted manually and drawn automatically, and
data are stored in paper form; there are no visualization tools for forecasters.
The education and training link is considered to be at an intermediate level since Uzhydromet has
a staff training plan and enjoys in-house training capacity through Tashkent Hydrometeorological
Training School. It participates in regional and international training activities and collaborates with
national universities and on a bilateral basis with other NMHSs in the region.
CONTENTS Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP
10. Proposed road map scenarios for modernisation
of Uzhydromet
A substantial modernization program for any NMHS should typically include three components,38
namely: (i) enhancement of service delivery system; (ii) institutional strengthening and capacity
building; and (iii) modernization of observation, ICT and forecasting infrastructure. The activities
proposed in the subsequent sections are in line with this principle and the hydromet value chain.
They aim to strengthen Uzhydromet’s institutional basis and to enhance the capacity of staff;
to technically modernize those elements of the basic infrastructure and facilities (observation,
ICT, data management and hydromet forecasting) that require upgrade; and, most importantly,
to advance the delivery of hydromet and MHEWS to the population of Uzbekistan and weather-
dependent sectors.
Recognizing that cultural change in institutions takes time, this road map represents the first
step in a planned long-term engagement on hydromet for enhancing the current capabilities of
Uzhydromet.
56 The road map lays out three scenarios for enhancing the capacity of Uzhydromet. These are based
on short-term, intermediate and long-term investments. They contribute to a system capable of
producing and delivering: (i) timely warnings of extreme and hazardous events and their potential
impacts; and (ii) weather and hydrological information and forecasts for operations and planning
in weather, water and climate-sensitive economic sectors, particularly agriculture, transport, water
resources, and disaster risk management.
Scenario 1: Short-term Modernization for High Priority and Immediate Needs (2 years)
This scenario includes some high priority activities highlighted by Uzhydromet deemed
the most urgent to achieve critical minimal capabilities for improved weather, climate,
and hydrological services and is focused on strengthening the organization’s capacity to
access and use available tools and technologies, as well as acquiring a modest amount of
essential new equipment. Training of personnel at home or abroad is the main item in this
scenario which is expected to be implemented within two years. The estimated cost of
implementing the activities in this scenario is around US$ 1.5M.
Scenario2: Intermediate Stage Modernization (5 years)
This scenario would build Uzhydromet’s capacity to fully discharge its public service
task. Investments are used to achieve some improvement in the capabilities to provide
meteorological and hydrological services to the public, and tailored services to meet the
needs of the most important user communities such as aviation and agriculture. Starting of
integrated services to be co-produced with some sectors such as disaster risk management
38
Rogers, D.P., and Tsirkunov, V.V. (2013): Weather and Climate Resilience: Effective Preparedness through National Meteorological and Hydrological
Services, World Bank, Washington D.C.
Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP CONTENTS
are envisaged in this scenario. The total estimated cost of implementing this scenario is
approximately US$ 10.4M. This includes the cost of equipment, facilities for modeling,
forecasting and service delivery (US$ 7.2M), capacity building including different training
activities (US$ 2M over 5 years), and an operation and additional maintenance cost (US$
1.2M over 5 years).
Scenario 3: Long-term Modernization (10 years)
Investments are targeted towards enabling development and acquiring advanced
capabilities for Uzhydromet to operate at the level of a well-functioning NMHS so as to
provide fit-for-purpose data, forecasts and warning services for the safety of the public
and to provide enhanced support to the development of the country’s economy. This
scenario provides the opportunity to develop integrated services in partnership with
other institutions and build on public tasks to develop closer relationships with the private
sector leading to the flourishing of private sector service providers. The total estimated
cost of implementing this scenario (building on the Intermediate Stage Modernization as
described in Scenario 2) is approximately US$ 18.6M. This includes the cost of equipment,
facilities for modeling, forecasting and service delivery (US$ 10.9M), capacity building
including different training activities (US$ 2M spread over 10 years), and an operation
and maintenance cost (estimated at US$ 5.7M over 10 years).
10.1. Building the scenarios
Discussions with Uzhydromet have revealed the growing needs of stakeholders and investors
in various weather and climate-sensitive economic activities in the Republic of Uzbekistan for
57
analytical data, advisories and information. While provision of observational data has been a
traditional activity of Uzhydromet, delivery of advisory services is still relatively new and is an
area which Uzhydromet is beginning to develop. Uzhydromet fully recognizes the importance of
evolving from a data producing organization to one which develops and delivers services based
on users’ requirements. During the course of the preparation of this roadmap, gaps in the service
provision capabilities of Uzhydromet were identified. The proposed steps in the scenarios are
meant to guide the transformation of Uzhydromet to a fit-for-purpose organization whose standards
and capabilities for products, services, and service delivery will be raised to the highest possible
level to discharge its public tasks to the satisfaction of the users, and to promote public-private
engagement. In striving to provide products of quality, diversity and coverage to users Uzhydromet
faces challenges in: (i) having a sufficient number of well-trained technical staff; (ii) access to
appropriate new technologies, technical assistance and guidance; (iii) ensuring that its capacity
can keep pace with and meet the growing demand for its services; and (iv) securing adequate
funding for sustained operation and maintenance of its services and systems.
It is important for Uzhydromet to demonstrate the importance of access to essential modern
tools and technologies for monitoring and observation, data processing, ICT, and forecasting
infrastructure and for delivery of services and advisory guidance for users. It also should rigorously
argue the case for the rate of return on investment based on the projected socioeconomic benefits
of reduced losses from hazards such as floods, mudflows and droughts.
To compete for and optimally use scarce public resources, Uzhydromet must justify the need for
improving its operations and thus the investment of public funds to support its basic infrastructure
and public tasks. To demonstrate the benefits to users, however, Uzhydromet must first be able
CONTENTS Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP
to provide an extended range of services to the satisfaction of users. It will need to upgrade its
forecasting and ICT infrastructure and its services to be able to perform at an optimal level.
This road map and the scenarios it presents can guide Uzhydromet towards a more systematic
basis for setting strategic and forward-looking priorities that are based on available (and potential
future) financial and human resources to improve its service delivery. Future challenges will include
the impacts of climate change with resulting likely increases in the amount and intensity of natural
hazards as well as the emergence of new technologies and economic evolution in the country.
Uzhydromet should produce more relevant, location-specific, well-articulated and useable
information not only on hazards but on their impacts on target areas and population. This assumption
has been the basis of the different scenarios proposed in this road map. Certain steps can be taken
quickly and with rather limited investments and effort to enhance the utility of weather, climate,
and hydrology information for users. Examples include training of the Uzhydromet technical staff to
access, understand and use readily available products and guidance from various regional and global
centers for improved forecast and warning services, and to apply remote-sensing techniques to
improve their forecasting capabilities; to streamline forecasting and ICT procedures and practices;
and to develop a regular means of user communication and feedback. Other changes may require
a series of actions over longer term and require more substantial investments. Examples include
enhancing the meteorological and hydrological observation networks, introducing new observation,
ICT and forecasting technologies and initiating capacities for impact-based forecasting.
The provision of the best possible products and services requires a more complete modernization
program. This forms the Long-term Modernization Scenario in this road map and aims to bring
Uzhydromet up to the level of a well-functioning, modern NMHS with matching capabilities for
58 providing data, forecasts and warning services.
In the short-term and intermediate stages, however, it will be necessary to prioritize the most
important targets for modernization of the systems. This will aim to achieve improvement in the
capabilities to provide weather, climate and hydrological services to meet the requirements of the
public and other users for warnings and forecasts in the framework of Uzhydromet’s public task,
and tailored services to meet the needs of the most important economic sectors such as aviation,
agriculture, and water resources.
It should be noted that these scenarios are not exclusive of each other but are inter-dependent and
as proposed should be conducted in phases to seamlessly build on each other and to contribute
to the overall goal of the modernization progressing from the short-term to intermediate, and
finally to long-term scenarios. While the short-term activities under Scenario 1 can be implemented
immediately for the most part through training in techniques such as interpretation of remote sensing
data and guidance on methodologies for forecasting, Scenarios 2 and 3 are inter-dependent, that is,
the long-term scenario assumes the accomplishment of objectives in the intermediate scenario and
builds on them. However, there is a second possibility. If resources are made available to undertake
the modernization as a single-phase package, for example, under a long-term scenario, then this
scenario will also comprise the activities as described under the short-term and intermediate
scenario, with clear planning and milestones on an annual or biennial basis.
10.2. The short-term priority actions
Activities listed below are needed primarily to achieve rapid improvements in monitoring and
forecasting techniques. Training on the application of remote sensing techniques is particularly
Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP CONTENTS
of high priority. Based on experience, advisory services by international experts including in-situ
training are costed at approximately US$22,000 per month. This is assumed to be lower for regional/
national experts. Note that the cost of this scenario will vary depending on whether the advisory
services are provided by international or regional experts.
1. Implementation of forecaster visualization workstation and required training (workstation
approximately US$ 400,000 (to include hardware, annual maintenance / Licence Fees
– US$ 30,000, international expert training approximately US$ 100,000 to train 3 or 4
forecasters)
2. Access to high resolution satellite imagery and training on its interpretation (training 4
weeks over 2 years)
3. Guidance on methodologies for forecasting mudflows, development of forecast models
and training)
4. Operational application of MODSNOW for snow cover monitoring and hydrological
forecasting (2 training of 2.5 months over 2 years).
5. Preparing high resolution hazard maps for avalanches and mudflows, and training in
Tashkent (to train all the suitable personnel) by international experts in the use of GIS to
prepare these hazard maps (advisory services, developing the maps and training up to 6
months)
6. In-situ surveillance of avalanche and mudflow prone areas, by using drones.)
7. Developing a digital library based on the existing large body of work produced by the
NIGMI specialists – NIGMI is not included in the Uzhydromet digitization programme (12
59
months over 2 years)
8. Keeping up the currency of expertise and enhancing knowledge to be transferred from
research to operation through exchange visits of scientists and experts from other research
institutions in Europe (2 rounds of visits by 2 scientists for each visit to Tashkent including
travel and DSA for one week)
9. Conducting training by an international expert on the principles and basics of an integrated
ICT system for the Meteoinfocom staff (advisory services and training 4 months over two
years)
10. Developing the required hardware and software environment in order to acquire a DCPC
designation (advisory services)
11. Adopting a single code for all data from new AWS. Since UNIMAS (a Russian built Message
Switching System) is used in all CIS countries (including Uzbekistan), Uzhydromet wishes
to have a coding system that can be handled by UNIMAS and allow the AWS data to be
accepted by UNIMAS (Advisory services by a regional expert four months over 2 years)
12. Accessing radar data in digital form and as composites, (hardware, advisory services and
training 4 months over 2 years)
13. Advising on COSMO-CA and ICON and training needs for ICON (international expert
advisory services and training 2.5 months over two years)
14. Use and interpretation of high-resolution remote sensing data for GLOF monitoring in the
mountainous parts of Uzbekistan (2 training over 2 years)
CONTENTS Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP
15. Further development of GIS based inventory of hazardous glacier lakes in the territory of
Uzbekistan (advisory services and training 2.5 months over two years)
16. Field surveys to monitor hazardous glacier lakes, including areal visualization by
helicopters.
Table 5. Indicative costs (USD) of the proposed scenario for short-term modernization,
including O&M costs
Annual O&M Total O&M
Unit Total
Cost per site Cost (W/O
Activity Quantity purchase purchase
(W/O labour labour costs)
Cost Cost
costs) for 2 years39
1. Implementation of a forecaster
visualization workstation.
1 400,000 400,000 40,000 0.0
O&M to cover license fees and
maintenance as required
2. In-situ surveillance of avalanche
and mudflow prone areas, by 4 3,000 12,000 500 0.0
using drones
3. Developing the required
hardware and software
1 50,000 50,000 5,000 0.0
environment in order to acquire a
DCPC designation
60
4. Hardware for radar data
processing and creation of 1 40,000 40,000 4,000 0.0
composites
Advisory Services & Training Total
5. Training of forecasters on
1 100,000 100,000
workstation
6. Training on interpretation of
1 22,000 22,000
high-resolution satellite imagery
7. Guidance on methodologies
for forecasting mudflows,
development of forecast models 1 200,000 200,000
to enhance early warning, and
training
8. Training and enhancement of
MODSNOW application for
1 50,000 50,000
snow cover monitoring and
hydrological forecasting
9. Preparing high resolution
hazard maps for avalanches
1 150,000 150,000
and mudflows, and training in
Tashkent
39
Assuming that spare parts and maintenance will be provided by suppliers for one full year following the start of operation of all equipment, and
taking into account that the process of procurement and installation of equipment will take approximately one year, this scenario will not incur
O&M costs for capital investment (of course this will have to be considered from year 3 onwards)
Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP CONTENTS
Annual O&M Total O&M
Unit Total
Cost per site Cost (W/O
Activity Quantity purchase purchase
(W/O labour labour costs)
Cost Cost
costs) for 2 years39
10. Training in Drone Operation 1 10,000 10,000
11. Developing a digital library based
on the existing large body of
1 50,000 50,000
works produced by the NIGMI
specialists
12. Exchange visits of scientists
and experts from other
research institutions in Europe 1 8,000 8,000
to Uzhydromet for knowledge
transfer
13. Conducting training by an
international expert on the
principles and basics of an 1 88,000 88,000
integrated ICT system for the
Meteoinfocom staff
14. Adopting a single code for data
harmonization for all data from 1 50,000 50,000
new AWS.
15. Accessing radar data in digital
1 80,000 80,000
form and as composites
61
16. Advising on COSMO-CA and
1 50,000 50,000
ICON and training needs for ICON
17. Use and interpretation of high-
resolution remote sensing data 1 50,000 50,000
for GLOF monitoring
18. Further development of GIS-
based inventory of hazardous 1 50,000 50,000
glacier lakes
19. Field surveys to monitor
hazardous glacier lakes, including 1 60,000 60,000
areal visualization by helicopters
Total equipment and facilities costs 502,000
Total advisory services and
1,018,000
training costs
Total annual O&M Costs
Total O&M Costs over 2 years 0.0
Cost of implementing over 2 years 1,520,000
CONTENTS Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP
10.3. The intermediate modernization stage
As a result of the intermediate modernization stage of intervention, Uzhydromet would occupy all
links in the value chain with higher levels of maturity (Figure 29).
Observations network design has to be an ongoing process based on user needs, with new
stations being established and existing stations either being rehabilitated and enhanced or
being discontinued as program priorities and funding evolve. Selecting the best technology for
data sensing at a given location is a very complex task. Additional factors to be considered are
reliability, reporting accuracy, costs, operation and maintenance requirements, durability and site
specifications. Data management ensures the proper storing, validating, analyzing and reporting of
vast amounts of data and establishes the validity of the data by providing evidence of compliance
with the quality management system. It was stated by Uzhydromet that the number of stations was
not considered sufficient to meet the national needs, and that for the optimal synoptic network
approximately an additional 30 stations are needed especially in mountainous areas. With these
in mind, the meteorological observing network of Uzhydromet is expanded at this intermediate
stage to include ten (10) more synoptic stations as well as five (5) more AWSs. In addition to the
existing four (4) weather radars, Uzhydromet had stated that between 3 to 5 more radars are
required for optimum coverage of the country. Uzhydromet also requires additional hydrological
gauges to supplement the existing 134 according to the vision of expanding this network to 145 by
2025, and two (2) systems for automatic measurement of streamflow. At this intermediate stage
of modernization six (6) gauges and one (1) automatic streamflow measuring equipment are added
to the network. There is a great need for increasing the number of hydrological stations in the
foothills and mountainous regions of the country. In this scenario one (1) more radar is added to
62 the network. Since the suppliers of existing AWSs are different, integration of data is an issue, and
this is addressed at this intermediate stage as well. Automation of monitoring, transmission and
reception of data is an urgent need for both meteorological and hydrological networks. In addition,
one (1) upper air station is installed in this scenario. It is assumed that at this intermediate stage all
stations are fully operational and produce data. All observations are transmitted automatically to
the central collection centre. Digitization of historical records is initiated and continues. As a result,
the observation link is at the top end of intermediate maturity.
The models and analytics link is also moved higher on the intermediate level of maturity
through enhancing the forecasting procedures and practices to include access to and use
of other regional and global models, post-processing and calibration of global models to the
conditions of Uzbekistan. Since modeling, building and implementing forecasting techniques for
water availability assessment, flash floods, mudflows and GLOFs are among the major goals of
Uzhydromet, focus is put on improving modeling capabilities in these areas as well as in overall
flood forecasting. As part of this effort, developing and sustaining a catalog of mountain lakes
with outburst potential through use of high-resolution satellite imagery and application of GIS
tools is a crucial activity at this stage of modernization.
The forecasts link is further enhanced to build on current capabilities of forecasters by upgrading the
tools for visualization and manipulation of data and products by forecasters, introducing the ensemble
prediction system (EPS) and the concept of probabilistic forecasting, enhancing the understanding
and full use of NWP/EPS data and products for short - to medium-range forecasts, introducing
impact-based forecasting techniques, and nowcasting. Forecasting water availability assessment for
agricultural sector, GLOFs, flash floods and mudflows, long-range streamflow, and inflow into the
reservoirs are hydrological areas for development and enhancement. With these improvements and
Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP CONTENTS
innovations, the forecasts link is considered to be at an advanced level.
The tailored services link is enhanced by establishing/improving a user-oriented culture and paying
closer attention to the users’ needs and their level of satisfaction with services of Uzhydromet.
Various means of collecting user feedback should be established. Closer collaboration with DRM is
established for example in developing/strengthening joint Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs)
and exercises, providing mirror computers to display weather information in real time as seen by the
forecasters and attaching a meteorologist to the DRM operation centre during severe weather events.
Improved frost warnings are provided to the agriculture sector. Climate services are enhanced by
producing climate indices and implementing plans for establishing a National Framework for Climate
Services. With these enhancements the tailored services link reaches an advanced level.
Through forming closer links with the DRM and co-production, integrated services are being created
in the form of MHEWS, and impact-based forecasts. Agromet services are co-developed with the
agriculture sector to include developing methods for monitoring the cultivation and growth of new
crops and preparing various crop-specific forecasts and analytical information. The development of
renewable energy in the country provides a unique chance for Uzhydromet to jointly develop services
for this sector. The integrated services link is developed to reach an intermediate level.
The ICT link is further developed with an integrated system for data transfer, quality control, data
storage and management considering the needs of embedded hydrological models, including linkages
with meteorological forecasts. All data are in the standard format required for the functioning of
an integrated ICT system, allowing the retrieval of data in the format required by all staff and thus
covering the requirements for improved data exchange between them. The visualization system,
including hardware, software, and training for the forecast office is upgraded for integration of all
meteorological observations and model data. Dissemination channels for enhanced provision of PWS 63
and hydrological services are established including mobile platforms and Common Alerting Protocol
(CAP). The ICT link is at an intermediate level of maturity.
Capacity building underpins the human resources within any NMHS and is indispensable to improve
the sustainability of the modernization of Uzhydromet. It is a foundation block for other systems and
functions. The education and training link benefits from the introduction of more structured training
courses to complement the new techniques, hardware and software introduced into Uzhydromet
at its intermediate modernization stage. These include training in meteorological and hydrological
modeling techniques, impact-based forecasting, implementation and maintenance of mobile app and
CAP, as well as implementation of MHEWS. The link is now at the high end of intermediate level.
Figure 29. Maturity of Uzhydromet at the Intermediate modernization stage
Models Forecasts Tailored Integrated
Observations
& Analytics Services Services
ICT Infrastructure Education & Training
Advanced Intermediate Low Unknown / None
CONTENTS Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP
10.4. Key Needs to Achieve Intermediate Level
of Modernization at Uzhydromet
10.4.1. Observing Networks Investment
1. An expansion of the existing observation network to install 10 new Synoptic stations, 5 AWSs,
1 Doppler Weather Radar, 1 upper air station, 6 hydrological gauges
2. Upgrading hydrological gauges with automatic measuring for water level (30 gauges)
3. Provision of three mobile field groups for streamflow measurements (equipped with ADCP
and other relevant instrumentation)
4. Outfitting all existing observational equipment with telemetry for automatic transmission of
data
10.4.2. Modelling and Forecasting Investment
1. Accessing and use of other regional and global models, post-processing and calibration of
these models
2. Improving modeling and forecasting capabilities for summer water availability, flash floods,
mudflows, GLOFs, long-range streamflow and inflow into the reservoirs
3. Developing and sustaining a catalog of mountain lakes with outburst potential through use of
high-resolution satellite imagery and application of GIS
64 4. Introducing EPS and probabilistic forecasting
5. Introducing impact-based forecasting and nowcasting
6. Developing sectoral based forecasts
10.4.3. ICT Investment
1. Upgrading any existing Message Switching System
2. Automating data transfer from all observation stations
3. Acquiring sufficient numbers of workstations and PCs
4. Developing a Data Management System
5. Developing Common Alerting Protocol (CAP)
10.4.4. Services Investment
1. Developing sectoral based climate analysis and predictions
2. Establishing a National Framework for Climate Services
3. Establishing/improving user-oriented culture including introduction of user feedback system
4. Developing closer collaboration with DRM - develop/strengthen joint Standard Operating
Procedures (SOPs)
5. Developing mobile application for delivery of products
Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP CONTENTS
10.4.5. Capacity Building Investment
1. Training in managing and maintaining the rehabilitated and expanded observation
networks
2. Training in impact-based forecasting and nowcasting
3. Developing and implementing a communication strategy
4. Developing an O&M strategy and annual plans
5. Training in summer water availability and flood forecasting
6. Advanced training in NWP
Table 6. Indicative costs (USD) of the proposed scenario for intermediate modernization,
including O&M costs
Annual O&M Total Annual Total O&M
Unit Total
Cost per site O&M Cost Cost (W/O
Activity Quantity purchase purchase
(W/O labour (W/O labour labour costs)
Cost Cost
costs) costs) for 3 years40
Observations
1. Synoptic stations (additional
to current, including civil
10 60,000 600,000 4,000 40,000 120,000
works and support such as
65
power supply)
2. Automatic Weather Stations
(AWS) (additional to current,
including civil works and 5 45,000 225,000 4,000 20,000 60,000
support such as power
supply)
3. Doppler Weather Radar
including infrastructure 1 2,000,000 2,000,000 50,000 50,000 150,000
(tower, generator, UPS, etc.)
4. Upper Air Station 1 300,000 300,000 124,10041 124,100 496,40042
5. In situ water level recording
(including Staff gauges, 6 22,500 135,000 2,000 12,000 36,000
sensors, data logger)
6. Automatic hydrological
gauge (including sensor,
30 23,000 690,000 2,000 60,000 180,000
loggers, solar panel, GSM
modem, UPS)
40
Assuming that spare parts and maintenance will be provided by suppliers for one full year following the start of operation of all equipment, and
taking into account that the process of procurement and installation of equipment will take approximately one year, the indicated O&M budget
will cover 3 full years of operations
41
The O&M costs refers to cost of balloons, sondes, tether, parachute and gas. Based on the Global Basic Observation Network (GBON) requirements,
two manual launches per day are assumed (total 730 per year), with 100% performance (uptime) and a cost of USD 170 per launch
42
The O&M costs for upper air station is calculated for 4 years, assuming that the process of procurement and installation of equipment and civil
works will take approximately one year
CONTENTS Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP
Annual O&M Total Annual Total O&M
Unit Total
Cost per site O&M Cost Cost (W/O
Activity Quantity purchase purchase
(W/O labour (W/O labour labour costs)
Cost Cost
costs) costs) for 3 years40
7. Mobile field group for
streamflow measurements
for 15-20 gauges (including
truck, current meters, 3 150,000 450,000 6,000 18,000 54,000
ADCPs, water level sensors,
laboratory equipment, boat,
safety gear, etc.)
Modelling and Forecasting
1. Developing probabilistic
forecasting, impact-based
forecasting (with DRM),
nowcasting, and sectoral
based forecasting
2. Improving hydrological
forecasting and flood
700,000
modelling, including summer
water availability, flash floods,
mudflows, GLOFs, long-range
streamflow and inflow into the
reservoirs; and developing
a catalog of mountain lakes
with outburst potential
66
ICT (First stage in developing an integrated ICT system)
91 Syn-
1. Automatic data transfer from
optic, 85
all existing and additional
AWS, 140 2,000 632,000
stations (91 Synoptic and 85
hydrologi-
AWSs and 140 gauges)
cal gauges
2. Upgrading Message
Switching System (if 1 200,000 200,000 20,000 20,000 60,00044
existing and feasible)43
3. Developing a data
management system
for weather, climate and
1 200,000 200,000
hydrological data (servers,
software, web access, social
media)
4. Acquiring sufficient numbers
of communications and
computer equipment
for reception, storage, 1 300,000 300,000
processing and visualization
for weather, climate and
hydrological data
43
It will be important to determine whether the Russian UNIMAS system is capable of dealing with the different data formats from the various AWS
networks etc. Otherwise, another MSS might need to be purchased / licensed
44
Cost of software licensing and upgrades over 3 years, assuming that 2 years will be covered by the supplier
Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP CONTENTS
Annual O&M Total Annual Total O&M
Unit Total
Cost per site O&M Cost Cost (W/O
Activity Quantity purchase purchase
(W/O labour (W/O labour labour costs)
Cost Cost
costs) costs) for 3 years40
5. Development of Common
Alerting Protocol (CAP)
1 200,000 200,000
capability at Uzhydromet
and DRM
Services Delivery
1. Developing sectoral based
climate analysis and 1 200,000 200,000
predictions
2. Establishing/improving
user feedback and closer
collaboration with DRM
1 50,000 50,000
including developing
joint Standard Operating
Procedures (SOPs)
3. Developing mobile
application for delivery of 1 150,000 150,000
products
4. Establishing a National
Framework for Climate 1 200,000 200,000
67
Services
Training
Implement capacity-
building and training
program: (i) technical
personnel training and
retraining (on-the-job 5 years 400,000 2,000,000
training, training at WMO
Regional Training Centers
and other institutions) and
(ii) stakeholder training
Total equipment and
7,232,000
facilities costs
Total capacity building costs 2,000,000
Total annual O&M Costs 344,100
Total O&M Costs over
1,156,400
5 years
Cost of implementing
10,388,400
over 5 years
CONTENTS Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP
10.5. Long-term modernisation
This scenario presents the investment needed to provide Uzhydromet with a substantial increase
in capabilities in forecasting, ICT and service delivery to meet various user needs, in addition to
fully meeting the public service task. Under this scenario, most of the effort is expended for the full
utilization of all the systems in the observation, modeling, forecasting and ICT that have been put
in place during the intermediate stage of modernisation, so the investments below build on those
detailed in Section 10.4. At this stage a fully developed maintenance programme for all hardware and
software is implemented.
It is envisaged that after a 10 year modernization effort, Uzhydromet will have a value chain whereby
all the links are occupied at an advanced maturity level. The value chain beyond this period is shown
in Figure 30.
The meteorological observation link is now at an advanced level of maturity with the installation of two
(2) additional upper air stations, ten (10) synoptic stations and ten (10) AWSs, all of which transmit
data automatically and data from all are fully integrated and ingested into a central ICT system.
All historical data are digitized. Two (2) more radars have been added to the network to produce a
complete mosaic covering the whole territory of Uzbekistan. The operation and maintenance budget
under this scenario is used for a proper life-cycle management of observation infrastructure and
facilities. The investment under this scenario covers the cost of new observing equipment, tools,
vehicles, instrumentation, software and facilities, supply of spare parts, consumables, fuel, the
increased communication, power and other operating costs, and quality control/quality assurance
procedures. All the stations are fully functional.
68 The models and analytics link is further enhanced. A modelling group is established which is engaged
in continuous R&D and introducing innovations in modelling. Model post-processing and calibration
are now part of the routine operation of the Uzhydromet. In terms of hydrology modelling and
forecasting, techniques for medium-term and long-term forecasts (including ensemble approach)
are enhanced. This link is now at an advanced level of maturity.
The forecasts link is at the advanced level and the production of nowcasts, and probabilistic
forecasts as the basis of impact-based forecasting are routine.
The tailored services link is at the advanced level, but further enhancements are still being
made. Tailored services are now available to a wide cross section of user sectors and further
improvements are made in the dissemination mechanisms to communities. As part of its public
weather services, PWS/civil contingency advisors are deployed to provide linkages with user
sectors and especially the DRM. Programmes are developed and activities are organised to help
increase the capacity of users of products and services to maximize the benefits of data, products
and services, and raise understanding and awareness among the public, especially in remote
communities, on weather-related hazards and risks. This work is especially important as impact-
based forecasts and warnings become the more commonly used forms of information shared with
the public. Uzhydromet uses its own TV studio facilities to broadcast forecasts and to prepare
content for online platforms. Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) enable Uzhydromet to codify
how alerts, warnings and other operational products are issued. They also enable stakeholders
to define their responses to the various levels of alerts and warnings improving the response to
meteorological and hydrological hazards.
The integrated services link is further enhanced. Opportunities are explored to develop a new
Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP CONTENTS
business strategy for more sustainable operations by initiating public–private engagement such as
fee-based service provision and outsourcing of certain activities such as modeling and software
upgrading. MHEWS and impact-based forecasting intermingle leading to the development of Multi-
hazard Impact-based Early Warning Services (MHIEWS) in close collaboration with DRM. Other
integrated services are also developed for example in agriculture and health sectors by working
closely with these sectors and co-producing services.
The state of-the-art ICT and computing facilities (within the technological, expert support and
financial capability of Uzhydromet) occupy the ICT link. This includes a centralized data center
(Figure 30), comprising an Integrated File and Message Switching System (IFMSS), a Forecaster
Visualization System, a Data Archive, a Climate Data Management System (CDMS), and sufficient
number of workstations. In addition, a service delivery platform and applications are needed to
disseminate and communicate products and information. A Forecast Visualisation System allows
forecasters to view all relevant data (surface observations, upper-air, satellite, model data) in one
place and may have some production tools built in. A data archive allows holding of all raw data
in medium term to allow quality control before the data can be put into long-term storage. The
CDMS is for long-term storage of quality-controlled weather data to support climate services
and the generation of key climatological statistics and analyses – this is a critical element for any
modern NMHS. A “one-stop” users’ portal for services, enables easy and user-friendly access
where all sectors can be served from one location with the information they require. There are also
mechanisms for collecting user feedback /satisfaction levels. With this structure in place, the ICT
link is at an advanced level.
69
Figure 30. A modern ICT system
NWP Hydrological Reanalysis
Modelling
Obs 1
Obs 2
Message / Forecast Data Climate
Quality Control
File Switching Visualisation Archieve Database
Obs 3
Up to 24 hrs Several Days Up to One year Permanent
Obs 4
The education and training link is further strengthened to allow development of technical capacity
and education through a professional training plan for Uzhydromet to build/enhance the required
skills to cope with innovations, modernization and sustainability of hydromet enhanced systems
included in this road map. On-the-job training of staff to support the implementation and application
of upgrades for hydromet components, including user engagement and feedback is ongoing in a
routine manner. More staff are trained at regional and international training centres. This link also
supports improved understanding of meteorological and hydrological phenomena through ongoing
scientific research.
CONTENTS Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP
Figure 31. Maturity of Uzhydromet following the Long-term modernization
Observations Models Forecasts Tailored Integrated
& Analytics Services Services
ICT Infrastructure Education & Training
Advanced Intermediate Low Unknown / None
10.6. Key Needs to Achieve Advanced Level of Modernization at Uzhydromet
10.6.1. Observing Networks Investment
1. Additional expansion of the observation network to install 10 Synoptic stations, 10 AWS, 2
Doppler Weather Radars, 2 upper air stations
2. Additional upgrading of 20 hydrological gauges to automatic water level measurement
3. Additional provision of 5 field mobile groups for streamflow measurements (equipped with
ADCP and other relevant instrumentation)
70 4. Acquiring vehicles, software and facilities, spare parts, consumables, fuel, communication,
power, and quality control/quality assurance procedures
10.6.2. Modelling and Forecasting Investment
1. Introducing and mainstreaming of model post-processing and calibration in the forecasting
process
2. Routine production of probabilistic forecasts as the basis of impact-based forecasting, and
nowcasts
3. Improving modeling and forecasting capabilities for medium- and long-term streamflow
forecasts and inflow into the reservoirs
10.6.3. ICT Investment
1. Developing a fully integrated ICT system by establishing
a. File and Message Switching System
b. Forecast Visualization System45
c. Data archive
d. Climate Database
45
This item was included as an immediate priority need in Scenario 1. If it has been implemented under that scenario, then it can be removed
from Scenario 3. Another possible pathway is to provide a relatively simple Forecast Visualisation System under Scenario 1, and a more fully
featured and advanced system (with production capability) under Scenario 3.
Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP CONTENTS
2. A “one-stop” users’ portal
3. Sufficient numbers of workstations and PCs
10.6.4. Services Investment
1. Services for a wide cross section of user sectors with enhanced dissemination mechanisms
2. Co-developing Multi-hazard Impact-based Early Warning Services (MHIEWS) with DRM;
developing other integrated services for example in agriculture and health sectors
3. Outreach and training support for main stakeholders in hydrology, DRM, agriculture
4. Revising and updating SOPs to codify issuing alerts, warnings and other operational products
10.6.5. Capacity Building Investment
1. Continuation of capacity-building and training program for technical personnel through
on-the-job training, training at WMO regional training centers and other institutions–
fellowships, attachments, master’s degrees, and study tours in diverse NMHS.
Table 7. Indicative costs (in USD) of the proposed scenario for long-term modernization
Annual O&M Total Annual Total O&M
Unit Total
Cost per site O&M Cost Cost (W/O 71
Activity Quantity Purchase Purchase
(W/O labour (W/O labour labour costs)
Cost Cost
costs) costs) for 8 years46
Observations
1. Synoptic stations
(additional to current,
including civil works and 10 60,000 600,000 4,000 40,000 320,000
support such as power
supply)
2. Automatic Weather
Stations (AWS)
(additional to current,
10 45,000 450,000 4,000 40,000 320,000
including civil works and
support such as power
supply)
3. Doppler Weather Radar
including infrastructure 2 2,000,000 4,000,000 50,000 100,000 800,000
(tower, generator, UPS, etc.)
4. Upper Air Station 2 300,000 600,000 124,100 248,20047 2,233,80048
46
Assuming that spare parts and maintenance will be provided by suppliers for one full year following the start of operation of all equipment, and
taking into account that the process of procurement and installation of equipment will take approximately one year, the indicated O&M budget
will cover 8 full years of operations
47
The O&M costs refers to cost of balloons, sondes, tether, parachute and gas. Based on the Global Basic Observation Network (GBON) requirements,
two manual launches per day are assumed (total 730 per year), with 100% performance (uptime) and a cost of USD 170 per launch
48
The O&M costs for upper air station is calculated for 9 years, assuming that the process of procurement and installation of equipment and civil
works will take approximately one year
CONTENTS Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP
Annual O&M Total Annual Total O&M
Unit Total
Cost per site O&M Cost Cost (W/O
Activity Quantity Purchase Purchase
(W/O labour (W/O labour labour costs)
Cost Cost
costs) costs) for 8 years46
5. Automatic hydrological
gauge (including sensor,
20 23,000 460,000 2,000 40,000 320,000
loggers, solar panel, GSM
modem, UPS, etc.)
6. Mobile field group
for streamflow
measurements for 15-20
gauges (truck, current
5 150,000 750,000 6,000 30,000 240,000
meter, ADCPs, water
level sensors, laboratory
equipment, boat, safety
gear, etc.)
Modelling and Forecasting
1. Improving the weather
forecasting processes,
including mainstreaming
1 150,000 150,000
of model post-processing
and calibration in the
forecasting process
2. Producing routinely
72
nowcasts, and
probabilistic forecasts as
1 400,000 400,000
the basis of impact-based
forecasting (including
software as required)
3. Improving modeling and
forecasting capabilities
for medium- and
1 500,000 500,000
long-term streamflow
forecasts and inflow into
the reservoirs
ICT (an integrated ICT system)
1. File and Message
Switching System for all 1 350,000 350,000 35,000 35,000 280,000
hydromet data
2. Forecast Visualization
1 400,000 400,000 40,000 40,000 320,000
System
3. Data archive 1 200,000 200,000 20,000 20,000 160,000
4. Climate Database 1 750,000 750,000 75,000 75,000 600,000
5. A “one-stop” users’
1 150,000 150,000 15,000 15,000 120,000
portal services
Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP CONTENTS
Annual O&M Total Annual Total O&M
Unit Total
Cost per site O&M Cost Cost (W/O
Activity Quantity Purchase Purchase
(W/O labour (W/O labour labour costs)
Cost Cost
costs) costs) for 8 years46
10 8,000
6. Workstations and PCs workstations (workstation), 140,000
and 30 PCs 2000 (PC)
Services Delivery
1. Services for a wide
user cross section with
300,000
enhanced dissemination
mechanisms
2. Co-developing integrated
services with DRM and 400,000
other sectors
3. Outreach and training
support for main 200,000
stakeholders
4. Revising and updating
SOPs for issuing
100,000
warnings and other
operational products
Training 73
On-the-job training,
5 years’
training at regional
worth of
training centers and other 400,000 per
training 2,000,000
institutions, fellowships, year
spread over
attachments, higher
10 years
degrees, and study tours
Total equipment and
10,900,000
facilities costs
Total capacity building
costs for 5 years (spread 2,000,000
over 10 years)
Total Annual O&M Costs 683,200
Total O&M over 10 years 5,713,800
Cost of implementing over
18,613,800
10 years
If resources are available to undertake the modernization in a single phase, for example, under
a long-term scenario (10 years), then this scenario will also comprise the activities as described
under the intermediate scenario. The total cost of this scenario will be US$28M as opposed to US$
29M which is the full cost of modernization for a combination of the intermediate and long-term
scenarios.
CONTENTS Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP
Table 8. Indicative costs (USD) of the proposed scenario for a single-phase modernization
over 10 years
Annual O&M Total Annual Total O&M
Unit Total
Cost per site O&M Cost Cost (W/O
Activity Quantity Purchase Purchase
(W/O labour (W/O labour labour costs)
Cost Cost
costs) costs) for 8 years49
Observations
1. Synoptic stations (additional
to current, including civil
20 60,000 1,200,000 4,000 80,000 640,000
works and support such as
power supply)
2. Automatic Weather Stations
(AWS) (additional to current,
15 45,000 675,000 4,000 60,000 480,000
including civil works and
support such as power supply)
3. Doppler Weather Radar
including infrastructure (tower, 3 2,000,000 6,000,000 50,000 150,000 1,200,000
generator, UPS, etc.)
4. Upper Air Station 3 300,000 900,000 124,100 372,30050 3,350,70051
5. In situ recording water level
recording (including Staff 6 22,500 180,000 2,000 12,000 96,000
gauges, sensors, data logger)
6. Automatic hydrological gauge
74 (including sensor, loggers, solar 50 23,000 1,150,000 2,000 100,000 800,000
panel, GSM modem, UPS, etc.)
7. Mobile field group for
streamflow measurements for
15-20 gauges (truck, current
8 150,000 1,200,000 6,000 48,000 384,000
meter, ADCPs, water level
sensors, laboratory equipment,
boat, safety gear, etc.)
Modelling and Forecasting
1. Improving the weather
forecasting processes,
including mainstreaming of
model post-processing and
calibration in the forecasting
process, developing 400,00052
probabilistic forecasting,
impact-based forecasting,
nowcasting, sectoral based
forecasting and producing
these forecasts routinely
49
Assuming that spare parts and maintenance will be provided by suppliers for one full year following the start of operation of all equipment, and
taking into account that the process of procurement and installation of equipment will take approximately one year, the indicated O&M budget
will cover 8 full years of operations
50
The O&M cost refers to cost of balloons, sondes, tether, parachute and gas. Based on the Global Basic Observation Network (GBON) requirements,
two manual launches per day are assumed (total 730 per year), with 100% performance (uptime) and a cost of USD 170 per launch
51
The O&M cost for upper air station is calculated for 9 years, assuming that the process of procurement and installation of equipment and civil
works will take approximately one year
52
Modeling and forecasting activities include development and maintenance costs
Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP CONTENTS
Annual O&M Total Annual Total O&M
Unit Total
Cost per site O&M Cost Cost (W/O
Activity Quantity Purchase Purchase
(W/O labour (W/O labour labour costs)
Cost Cost
costs) costs) for 8 years49
2. Improving hydrological
forecasting and flood
modelling, including flash
floods, mudflows, GLOFs
and developing a catalog of
mountain lakes with outburst 700,000
potential; Improving modeling
and forecasting capabilities
for medium- and long-term
streamflow forecasts and
inflow into the reservoirs
ICT (an integrated ICT system)
91 Syn-
1. Automatic data transfer optic,
from all existing and 85 AWS,
additional stations (91 140 2,000 630,000
Synoptic and 85 AWSs and hydro-
140 gauges) logical
gauges
2. Developing a data
management system
for weather, climate 75
1 200,000 200,000
and hydrological data
(servers, software, web
access, social media)
3. File and Message Switching
350,000 350,000 35,000 35,000 280,000
System for all hydromet data
4. Forecast Visualization System 1 400,000 400,000 40,000 40,000 320,000
5. Data archive 1 200,000 200,000 20,000 20,000 160,000
6. Climate Database 1 750,000 750,000 75,000 75,000 600,000
7. A “one-stop” users’ portal
1 150,000 150,000 15,000 15,000 120,000
services
8. Acquiring sufficient numbers
of communications and
computer equipment, including
workstations and PCs for 400,000 400,000
reception, storage, processing
and visualization for weather,
climate and hydrological data
9. Development of Common
Alerting Protocol (CAP)
1 200,000 200,000
capability at Uzhydromet
and DRM
CONTENTS Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP
Annual O&M Total Annual Total O&M
Unit Total
Cost per site O&M Cost Cost (W/O
Activity Quantity Purchase Purchase
(W/O labour (W/O labour labour costs)
Cost Cost
costs) costs) for 8 years49
Services Delivery
1. Developing sectoral based
climate analysis and
predictions Services for a
400,000
wide user cross section with
enhanced dissemination
mechanisms
2. Establishing/improving
user feedback and closer
collaboration with DRM
100,000
including developing
joint Standard Operating
Procedures (SOPs)
3. Developing mobile application
150,000
for delivery of products
4. Co-developing integrated
services with DRM and other 400,000
sectors
5. Outreach and training support
200,000
for main stakeholders
76
6. Revising and updating SOPs
for issuing warnings and other 100,000
operational products
7. Establishing a National
Framework for Climate 200,000
Services
Training
6 years’
On-the-job training, training at
worth of
regional training centers and
training 400,000 2,400,000
other institutions, fellowships,
spread per year
attachments, higher degrees,
over 10
and study tours
years
Total equipment and
17,235,000
facilities costs
Total capacity building costs for
2,400,000
5 years (spread over 10 years)
Total Annual O&M Costs 1,007,300
Total O&M over 10 years 8,430,700
Cost of implementing over 10
28,065,700
years
Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP CONTENTS
11. Socioeconomic benefits of improved hydromet
services and multi-hazard early warning systems
For a potential public investment to be justified, the socioeconomic benefits it will produce
should be compared to the costs involved. The application of cost-benefit analysis to investments
to modernize hydrometeorological services was explored in WMO et al. (2015), which also
outlined different methodologies (and challenges) for quantifying benefits and costs related to
weather, climate, and water information services. It was found that in general, investing US$1
in hydrometeorological services and EWS results in at least US$3 in socioeconomic benefits
(defined as a 3:1 benefit/cost ratio), and often far more.
With the purpose of optimizing investment benefits, the Uzhydromet modernization must focus on
delivering services using all possible mechanisms and channels to meet the goals and requests of
end-users and ensuring that users can productively apply those services.
It is assumed that any enhancement in the capacity and capability of Uzhydromet will lead to
improvements in the generation of services, which when applied by end-users and stakeholders will
lead to benefits both from reducing risks to life and property and generating and supporting economic
77
development.
CONTENTS Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP
12. Public-Private engagement
and service provision
Uzhydromet is exploring the possibility of increasing its range of activities in the economic sectors
that are weather and climate sensitive to generate revenue by providing information to users other
than aviation. It is important for Uzhydromet to consider the foundations that need to be in place to
establish a cost-effective, efficient and fair way of creating revenue streams from the provision of
hydrometeorological services to different customers. Developing such activities should be aligned
with appropriate rules and metrics for success and understanding of competition rules.
Efforts to improve weather and climate services involve both public and private actors in the
hydrometeorological value chain (Section 8). On the one hand there is need to protect society
from the impact of extreme meteorological and hydrological events and on the other to increase
economic activity in a range of weather sensitive sectors. Although the public tasks of NMHS are
primarily safety related, governments increasingly expect their agencies to provide a return on
capital employed by competing for commercial services with the private sector. This poses the
risk of disruption and distortion of the market through anti-competitive practices that can prevent
78 the growth of the market and reduce rather than increase benefits to the economy, and over-
emphasis on commercial activities that can detract from the public tasks of the NMHS. Creating
a level playing field is critical. Any effort to further improve weather and climate services must
explicitly consider the role of both the public and the private sectors throughout the value chain—
from the delivery of observations to the provision of services to end-user customers and clients.
It is important to explore how public and private actors can both engage in the market and how to
ensure that competition is fair and of social and economic benefit to society.
There is a general understanding that weather, climate and water information is critical to business
development, particularly in the context of climate change and the greater sensitivity of modern
economy to environmental factors. While a government department or agency may benefit from
participating in a commercial market, there is a risk that attempting to provide commercial services
may detract from the core public task resulting in weaker public services. Care must, therefore, be
taken in any effort to balance commercial and public activities within an NMHS.
At present, private hydrometeorological service providers do not operate in Uzbekistan. This may
change in the future with the increasing development of the economy and potential growth of the
private sector engaged in hydrometeorology. In such a future environment, the primary role of
Uzhydromet would be to focus on providing public services, while operating within a regulatory
framework with respect to the operation of the private sector. It is perhaps fair to assume that
Uzhydromet is expected to continue as the principal public service provider in the foreseeable
future.
There are a number of factors that Uzhydromet needs to take into consideration if it intends to
embark on the path to generating increased revenue from its activities.
Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP CONTENTS
Good management practice is critical to the success of this chosen path, and it is essential that
Uzhydromet properly account for its income and expenditure. As a first step, a full understanding of
the true cost and value of services should be developed. This includes quantifying the actual costs
of services, implementing process improvements, evaluating outsourcing and aligning activities with
strategy, rather than simply focusing on input expenses – staffing levels, equipment and supplies. This
requires a shift from budget management to performance-based results measurement using tools
based on the application of International Public Sector Accounting Standards (IPSASTM).
The operating model of Uzhydromet follows that of a contracting agency (Section 5.5) among the five
distinct NMHS operating models defined in the literature. While having a certain level of autonomy
and generating some revenues, in addition to being financed by the state budget, it still has a strong
hierarchical and financial relationship with its parent ministry. An example of this operating model in
Europe is the Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology (MeteoSwiss), which is part of the Federal
Department of Home Affairs. Within this operating model, it is imperative that Uzhydromet should focus
on achieving its public task, while competing effectively within the public sector for government support
and where possible provide services in a competitive commercial market to broaden its base income
without using public funds to subsidize the commercial business. In this case, the public task is focused
on safety and security and is complemented by the growing importance of weather, climate, and water
services to economic development.
The case of Austria highlights the importance of a well-structured and managed Service that provides
both public task and commercial services. Besides the statutorily required public services, the
Austrian Meteorological Service (ZAMG) which operates as a public body has, through a law governing
the organization of scientific research in Austria for meteorology and geology enacted in 1990, the
opportunity to provide commercial services as part of its portfolio. Commercial services now cover a
79
significant part of ZAMG’s overall costs, and the organization is challenged to provide services in a very
stimulating and competitive environment. This has enabled ZAMG to contribute to a rapidly evolving
field of technical and scientific possibilities.
The legal background for this construction states that cross-subsidies are prohibited, liabilities from
commercial activities must be carried by the commercial part of ZAMG, and separate cost allocations
must be made for both the public and the commercial part of ZAMG. Activities undertaken in the
public domain cannot be hindered by commercial activities of ZAMG. Yearly audits are performed to
evaluate the situation considering performance indicators for all types of services, the overall financial
performance, and the separation of the cost allocations.
After more than 25 years of commercial activities by ZAMG, several experiences and conclusions can
be drawn from this type of setup (Box below).
CONTENTS Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP
Principles and preconditions for sustainable meteorological services
In order to run sustainable services of this kind, the following principles and preconditions
have proven to be imperative:
ി A competitive mindset in the public sector is not the standard setup, but it can enhance
the performance quality of public services considerably.
ി Commercial activities can contribute significantly to encourage this mindset.
ി Feedback—in the form of market acceptance of a service or via a customer satisfaction
index for public services—is essential for understanding the behavior of users.
ി A clear definition of the public tasks and a readiness to change over time with increasing
technical and scientific possibilities are a subject of dialogue with many different types
of stakeholders.
ി Autonomous management with clearly defined deliverables and a background both in
meteorology and market mechanisms are a necessary precondition.
ി Accrual accounting and cost allocation through the value chain for each service is the
basis for understanding the financial viability of all services.
ി Audits both for quality assessment and for key financial indicators provide the responsible
authorities with sufficient confidence about the accomplishment of the tasks dictated
by law.
80
The sale of meteorological data by NMHS is often a result of underfunding of their public task
and, in some cases, it is a government-wide policy to recover the marginal costs of making data
available among agencies. Since the cost of making data available in machine readable formats is
negligible, this latter practice is decreasing. However, the former remains a stubborn issue. NMHS
should evolve from data-providing organizations to demand- and user-driven, knowledge-based
organizations that emphasize service quality and service development and provision across many
socioeconomic sectors. Uzhydromet can contribute to a vibrant, climate-resilient society in the
Republic of Uzbekistan by expanding the capacity of the organization to provide more extensive
weather, hydrological and climate services that meet the varied needs of different economic
sectors. While it is necessary to conduct sound market research into the users’ requirements
for provision of fee-based services, it is imperative that the resources for this activity are not
provided from the government funding specifically provided for the public task. This would be an
example of cross-subsidy which was discussed above.
What are the opportunities to provide tailored services to users? These will vary from country to
country and the current level of economic development. They may be a mixture of services to
the private sector provided by the NMHS or may be part of a government investment in a private
enterprise53 or co-produced services as part of a joint venture between the public and private sectors
or competed with the private sector. Some potential commercial services are listed in Table 9.54
53
Rogers, D.P., Tsirkunov, V.V., Thorpe, A., Bogdanova, A-M, Suwa, M., Kootval, H., Hodgson, S., and Staudinger, M (2021). The Level Playing Field and
the Business of Weather, Water and Climate Services. World Bank, Washington D.C.
54
Ibid.
Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP CONTENTS
Table 9. Examples of potential commercial weather services Tailored Services
(non-Public Task)
Description
Water Resources Provide rainfall forecasts to manage dam operations to avoid overtopping and
operator induced downstream flooding. Experienced forecaster intervention may
be of high value.
Insurance Data service providing quality assured gridded digital information suitable to
optimally price insurance certificates
Wind farms Weather forecast products designed to optimize scheduled maintenance for
onshore and offshore infrastructure. Experienced forecaster intervention may be
of high value.
Wind energy Integration of meteorological parameters into software tools used to manage
energy generation
Energy distribution Peak load estimates, optimization and minimization of electrical energy production
costs, protection of infrastructure
Licensing of commercial Establish standards and requirements for the operation of commercial weather
service providers services in country (would require national legislation)
Agricultural business Integration of weather information in precision agriculture software systems to
improve the efficiency of planting, farming inputs and cropping. Enhanced farm/
climate extension workers
81
Airport operations Terminal area forecasts, Significant weather and other information as required by
civil aviation. Should have an approved quality management system in place.
Rail transport High speed train operations are highly susceptible to winds. Require monitoring
and forecasting system along route. Information integrated into scheduling and
timetables
Road transport Optimizing routing, departure times of lorries/trucks and long-range buses/coaches
– information integrated into schedules and timetables
Retail Optimizing sales of food products and clothing
Tourism Optimizing tourist experiences with enhanced local weather information at important
geographical locations with tourist specific warning for extreme events
Construction Integration of weather information into construction schedules to minimize costs
and delays
Telecommunication Lightning detection and rainfall for signal optimization and infrastructure protection
Media Commercial television and radio weather broadcasts, print media, weather apps
and websites with paid advertising
With the exception of aeronautical meteorological services, all of these services are primarily
economic activities. They may be offered on a cost recovery or on a for-profit basis. A level playing
field is a necessary pre-requirement in both cases.
CONTENTS Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP
13. CONCLUSIONS AND A WAY FORWARD
The strategic steps needed to modernize hydromet products and services in Uzbekistan are
primarily driven by the needs of the user community. Discussions with the management and
technical staff of Uzhydromet and consideration of the needs of key stakeholders in the country,
including agriculture, transport, water resources, and disaster risk management indicate a need
for strengthening the provision of meteorological and hydrological information. Uzhydromet should
augment its capabilities through accessing up to date technologies and tools for the production of
forecasts and using best practices and standards in delivering services. Addressing these issues
will require a joint approach involving stakeholders and ensuring that full consideration is given to
including all meteorological and hydrological elements of a modern, well-planned organization with
a clear strategy and goals and means of achieving those goals.
To respond to the needs of stakeholders for optimum services, Uzhydromet should enhance its
capabilities for MHEWS, use of NWP, nowcasting, agrometeorological forecasting, seasonal outlooks
and climate projections, flood forecasting based on hydrological models, and summer water availability.
This implies building a robust data management system; a forecasting system with capabilities to
82 allow forecast production on all time scales from nowcasting to very-short-range to short-range to
long-range and seasonal forecasts, and impact-based forecasts; hydrological services and flood
forecasting; an integrated ICT system capable of transmitting, processing and storing data from all
the different components of the observing network in a harmonized and efficient manner; and an
effective service delivery system.
Following the developing trend in the relatively new domain of integrated services in more advanced
NMHS, Uzhydromet should endeavor to collaborate with public entities such as DRM and private
sector interests in the production and delivery of services.
Three scenarios to enhance the capabilities of Uzhydromet have been presented. The level of
complexity and required resources is different in each scenario.
Scenario 1: Short-term Modernization for High Priority and Immediate Needs (2 years)
This scenario includes some high priority activities highlighted by Uzhydromet deemed
the most urgent to achieve critical minimal capabilities for improved weather, climate,
and hydrological services and is focused on strengthening the organization’s capacity to
access and use available tools and technologies as well as acquiring a modest amount
of essential new equipment. Training of personnel at home or abroad is the main item in
this scenario which is expected to be implemented within two years. The estimated cost
of implementing the activities in this scenario is around US$1.5M
Scenario 2: Intermediate Modernization (5 years)
Investment to achieve improvement in the capabilities to provide meteorological and
hydrological services to the public, and tailored services to meet the needs of the
Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP CONTENTS
most important user communities such as disaster risk management, water resources
management and, agriculture. The estimated cost of implementation of this scenario over
5 years is US$ 10.4M. This includes total operation and maintenance cost (excluding labor
costs) of US$1.2M and capacity building costs of US$ 2M.
Scenario 3: Long-term Modernization (10 years)
Investment to enable developing and acquiring advanced capabilities for providing fit-for-
purpose data, forecasts and warning services for the safety of the public and support to
development of the country’s economy. This scenario is expected to cost US$ 18.6M to
implement over 10 years. This includes total operation and maintenance cost (excluding
labor costs) of US $ 5.7M and capacity building costs of US$ 2M.
Scenario 1 can be implemented immediately for the most part, where focus is on training in techniques
such as interpretation of remote sensing data and guidance on methodologies for forecasting.
Scenarios 2 and 3 are inter-dependent and should be conducted in phases to seamlessly build
on each other and to contribute to the overall goal of the modernization progressing from the
intermediate to long-term scenarios. Thus, the long-term scenario assumes the accomplishment of
objectives in the intermediate scenario and builds on them. The total cost of this approach would
be US$ 29M.
However, if resources are available to undertake the modernization in a single phase, for example,
under a long-term scenario (10 years), then this scenario will also comprise the activities as described
under the intermediate scenario. The total cost of this scenario will be US$28M as opposed to US$
29M which is the full cost of modernization for a combination of the intermediate and long-term
scenarios.
83
It should be noted that the implementation of each of the options offered in the three scenarios
for the modernization of the Uzhydromet observation, ICT and forecasting infrastructure and
improvement of service delivery will need to be accompanied by an increase in the number of
staff and the staff costs, as well as the ongoing operation and maintenance costs as shown for
each scenario. To achieve the projected results under the short-term, intermediate and long-
term scenarios, the Government of the Republic of Uzbekistan must be able to allocate additional
financial resources to operate the modernized Uzhydromet systems. An overall increase in the
budget of Uzhydromet by the end of the 10-year period will therefore be inevitable. However,
benefit/cost studies have indicated that for every $1 invested in hydro-meteorological organisations
by government, at least $3 is returned to the economy in terms of losses avoided and increased
economic efficiency.
CONTENTS Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP
ANNEX 1
Main users of hydromet products and services
1. Office of the President of the Republic of 15. State Committee for Ecology and
Uzbekistan Environmental Protection
2. Cabinet of Ministers of the Republic 16. State Committee of the Republic
of Uzbekistan of Uzbekistan for Geology and
3. Secretariats of the Cabinet of Ministers of Mineral Resources
the Republic of Uzbekistan
17. State Service for Monitoring
4. Accounts Chamber of the Republic Dangerous Geological Processes
of Uzbekistan
18. State Committee of the Republic
5. Constitutional Court of the Republic of Uzbekistan on land resources,
of Uzbekistan geodesy, cartography and state
84 6. Ministry of Emergency Situations cadastre
of the Republic of Uzbekistan
19. State inspection “Gosvodkhoznadzor”
7. Ministry of Internal Affairs of the
20. State Joint Stock Company for the
Republic of Uzbekistan
construction and operation of
8. Ministry of Economic Development and
highways “Uzavtoyul”
Poverty Reduction of the Republic of
Uzbekistan 21. State Plant Quarantine Inspectorate
under the Cabinet of Ministers of the
9. Ministry of Finance of the Republic
Republic of Uzbekistan
of Uzbekistan
22. Khokimiyats of regions and the city
10. Ministry of Health of the Republic
of Uzbekistan of Tashkent
11. Ministry of Water Resources of the 23. Basin water organization “Syrdarya”
Republic of Uzbekistan and its divisions 24. Basin water management
12. Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of organization “Amu Darya”
Uzbekistan and its divisions
25. Insurance companies
13. Ministry of Energy of the Republic
26. Farmers and dekhkan farms
of Uzbekistan
27. Design and research institutes
14. State Committee of the Republic
of Uzbekistan on Statistics 28. Higher education institutions
Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP CONTENTS
ANNEX 2
Ongoing and Planned projects
Implementation Amount of grant,
Project
period Donor
1. Preparation of the Fourth National Communication
USD 825,000
of the Republic of Uzbekistan for the United Nations 2018–2022
UNEP
Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
Summary
Preparation of the Fourth National Communication of the Republic of Uzbekistan for the UN Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) as fulfillment of Uzbekistan‘s obligations to the Convention in
accordance with Articles 4.1 and 12.1 of the UNFCCC and a report on inventory of sources of anthropogenic
emissions and discharge of greenhouse gases in the Republic of Uzbekistan for a period 1990-2016 and
preparation of biennial reports in accordance with the requirements of the UNFCCC.
2. National Adaptation Plan (NAP) aimed at the most
vulnerable sectors of the economy and regions to
USD 1,611,944 85
climate change to promote medium- and long-term 2020–2023
GCF
planning of adaptation measures and actions in
Uzbekistan
Summary
The main goal of the Project is creation of an effective tool to plan adaptation to climate change in the
most vulnerable sectors, taking into account priorities in climate emergency response management. The
project will plan the adaptation development of three target areas (Republic of Karakalpakstan, Bukhara and
Khorezm) that are most sensitive to climate change.
3. Improvement of Uzbekistan readiness for financing USD 470,000
2020–2022
by the Green Climate Fund (Readiness 2) GCF
Summary
Assistance in strengthening national capacities to effectively access, manage, use and monitor climate
finance, in particular from the Green Climate Fund (GCF).
USD 3,000,000
4. Automation of atmospheric air pollution monitoring 2020–2023
Zamin Foundation
Summary
Technical assistance in modernization of air pollution monitoring by equipping laboratories with automatic
air pollution monitoring stations. Creation of a unified information and analytical system on air pollution with
open access to monitoring results.
CONTENTS Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP
Implementation Amount of grant,
Project
period Donor
USD 450,000
5. Saving climate data in Uzbekistan 2020–2021 Korea Meteorological
Administration (KMA)
Summary
Creation of a modern storage system for historical hydrometeorological data, digitization of data previously
stored as images (Phase 1 of the project).
USD 3,217,062
6. Climate change and sustainable development in Budget for Uzbekistan:
2021–2024
Central Asia / UNDP USD 1,163,543
EU
Summary
The overall goal of the project is to assist in ensuring stability and developing climate-resilient development
models in the Ferghana Valley - a transboundary zone of the Republic of Kyrgyzstan, the Republic of Tajikistan
and the Republic of Uzbekistan.
The project will contribute to:
1. increasing knowledge of climate risks of stakeholders at the local, national and regional levels
promote risk communication for decision-making and management of transboundary resources
2.
support to implementation of practical risk reduction, early warning and preventive measures.
3.
86
4. Improvement of early warning system to increase USD 9,820,000
resilience of Uzbekistan‘s communities to the risks 2021–2026
associated with climate change GCF
Summary
The Project is aimed to: modernization of hydrometeorological observations network, creation of a functional
system for early warning about hazardous events based on innovative approaches, risk analysis, in order to
provide early warning to the most vulnerable communities and to strengthen climate services.
5. FUME Project. Instrument of Institutional
Cooperation (ICC) of the Ministry of Foreign € 2,000,000
Affairs of Finland, between the Finnish 2022
Meteorological Institute (FMI) and the Center for Ministry of Foreign Affairs of
2025
Hydrometeorological Service of the Republic of Finland
Uzbekistan (Uzhydromet).
Summary
The new FUME project will contribute to improvement of quality of hydrometeorological and climate services
in Uzbekistan. The need for better hydrometeorological and climatological information is constantly
increasing, especially for the purposes of early warning for population, support of disaster response
strategies and optimization of economic activity in sectors such as agriculture, transport, water management
and hydropower.
6. Development of river basin geoinformation USD 1,200,000
basis for hydrological modeling of runoff and 2022–2025
hydrometeorological hazards
Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP CONTENTS
Implementation Amount of grant,
Project
period Donor
Summary
Development of a river basin digital model, statistical methods for hydrological forecasting and forecasting
of hazards, including in insufficiently studied and unstudied sub-basins, use of remote sensing data for
spatial and temporal assessment of snow cover and water resources, recommendations for development and
modernization of hydrometeorological monitoring network.
Pilot territory: Basin of Kashkadarya River was identified as the project site, which is characterized by
occurrence of mudflows and flood hazards in the mountainous zone, often against the background of drought.
7. Improvement of climate resilience of the fruit and
USD 954,147
vegetable producers in the Ferghana Valley in 2022–2023
Government of Japan
Uzbekistan
Summary
The project will contribute to the country‘s efforts to adapt to climate change in line with the results of COP26
and more ambitious National Commitments (NPCs) adopted by Uzbekistan under the Paris Agreement. The
project will contribute to improvement of climate resilience of horticultural production in the Fergana Valley
and improvement of livelihood and food security of climate-vulnerable rural communities and households, as
well as small/medium agricultural producers.
USD 2,000,000
The World Bank
8. Modernization of hydro-meteorological services in
2012–2022 (The second phase of
Central Asia (World Bank Grant No H677-7C)
the project is under
development) 87
Summary
Strengthening of NMHS capacity and improvement of hydrometeorological services.
CONTENTS Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan. A ROAD MAP
PROGRAM FOR
ASIA CONNECTIVITY
AND TRADE (PACT)