SPRING 2023 EDITION 1 Mobility Development AND I N N O V A T I O N S , P O L I C I E S A N D P R A C T I C E S Authors: Megersa Abate, COVID-19 Pandemic and The World Bank, Tommy Cheung, Swinburne Air Connectivity Trends in University of Technology, Anming Zhang Southern Africa1 and Yilin Zhang, University of British Columbia What we did This article analyzes the factors determining intraregional air transportation in Southern Africa and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the pattern of air connectivity. It does this by examining the geospatial characteristics of air transport network, airport connectivity, and market structure before and after the pandemic in Botswana, Eswatini, Lesotho, Namibia, and South Africa. It also explores the progress of air transport liberal- ization in the region and its impact on market structure and airline privatization. 1 We would like to thank Xiaoqian Sun and Sebastian Wandelt for providing data support. 2 MOBILITY AND DEVELOPMENT: INNOVATIONS, POLICIES, AND PRACTICES What we found About the Authors Four key results are worth highlighting. First, although an interruptive and negative event, the pandemic has improved Africa’s overall airport connectivity relative to the world. In the Southern Africa region, however, this was not the case: airports actually become less connected. Second, the pandemic has altered the structure of the Southern African airline market by lessening competition and reversing the market share in favor of privately owned carriers. Third, a gravity model of the determinants of intraregional Megersa Abate connectivity shows that the factors promoting connectivity include economic levels, air is a Transport transport liberalization, presence of low-cost carriers, airline privatization, and tourism Economist at the World Bank. resources, while high market concentration and diplomatic disagreements are among the hindering factors. Fourth, analysis shows that liberalization facilitated market compe- tition and the progress of privatization, but its influence faded quickly, and it appears to be further delayed by the impact of the pandemic. What we learned We gleaned three important policy implications from the analysis. First, the pandemic Tommy Cheung and the associated government restriction measures severely hit the intraregional air is a Senior transport supply and demand, while the vaccination program significantly promoted the Lecturer, recovery of air transportation. Second, liberalization movements could significantly pro- Department of Aviation at mote the intraregion air connectivity. Although all five countries in Southern Africa have Swinburne signed the agreements to establish the Single African Air Transport Market (SAATM), University of most of them have not fully implemented it. To facilitate intraregional air transport Technology. connectivity in the long term, countries’ commitment to the full implementation of the liberalization and integration initiative is needed. Third, encouraging both the participa- tion of private airlines in air transportation and the development of low-cost carriers can promote market competition, air connectivity, and traffic. Background The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in an unprecedented downturn in air trans- port activity globally, impacting economies and livelihoods dependent on travel and tourism. The situation has been exacerbated in developing countries where the aviation sector has long been facing multipronged challenges, including profitability, safety, security, and sustainable financing of critical infrastructure, that predate the current crisis. Due to connectivity disruptions caused by the pandemic, many countries’ air transport sectors and key travel-dependent industries are under stress. SPRING 2023 EDITION 3 Much like the rest of Africa, the Southern African region is characterized by the About the Authors dominance of troubled state-owned airlines, which have been unable to gen- erate meaningful positive returns for many years due to structural inefficiencies and weak governance. At the end of 2019, five state-owned carriers in South Africa, Botswana, and Namibia accounted for 43 percent of capacity share of these domestic markets (down to 30 percent in 2020) and 80 percent of regional international seat capacity (down to 73 percent in 2020). As the main poorly performing state-owned enter- prises (SOEs), Air Botswana, Air Namibia, and South African Airways (SAA) contributed to increased government spending, fiscal deficits, and public sector debt through large Anming Zhang budgetary transfers and growing contingent liabilities. All three have been unable to is the Professor at Sauder School of generate meaningful positive financial returns for many years due to structural ineffi- Business at UBC. ciencies, shady procurement practices, soft fiduciary controls, poor management, and weak governance. They faced elevated costs arising from bloated wage bills and needed several bailouts and turnaround strategies, though these were ultimately unsuccessful. The region, however, is also home to some of the most profitable privately owned air- lines on the continent. While there is a positive link between air transportation and economic develop- ment, the air market in Africa as a whole is far from open and sustainable. Efficient Yilin Zhang air transport can act as a facilitator in the development of more diversified export-based Sauder School of industries, which in the presence of links with other domestic economic sectors can Business at UBC act as a stimulus for broadly based growth (Njoya and Nikitas 2020; Tolcha et al. 2020; Button et al. 2015). However, heterogeneous and delayed implementation of continental liberalization policies have prevented the positive link between air transport and the economy from reaching its full potential. As a result, despite the growth in traffic capacity and the increases in both the number of airlines and the level of competition, air trans- portation in Africa is still suffering from some long-standing weaknesses, including a lack of interconnectivity, an unbalanced traffic distribution, high fares and airline costs, and sparse demand. Given that air passengers and air cargo are important drivers for a country’s tourism, international trade, industrial and social development, it is essential for policy makers and industry practitioners to better understand which factors determine the growth of the sector. Being the relatively more mature market and accounting for 20 percent of Africa’s air traffic, a healthy airline industry and sustainable air transport policies in South Africa are critical in the development of aviation and overall economy for the region. The potential for (among others) tourism-related air traffic is high in the region, yet the market as a whole is not fully open and sustainable. In this context, this article examines geospatial and economic characteristics of the domestic and cross-border air traffic flows in Southern Africa, and empirically explores the factors that shape them and the associated implications of its air transport connectivity. It is concerned mainly with five southern African countries: South Africa, Namibia, Botswana, Lesotho, and Eswatini. 4 MOBILITY AND DEVELOPMENT: INNOVATIONS, POLICIES, AND PRACTICES Impacts of COVID-19 Pandemic on Air Connectivity Patterns and Market Structure Africa Air Connectivity Patterns Pre- and Post-Pandemic Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, the “country network” of intra-African air flights shows that several countries along the coastline, including South Africa, Ethiopia, Morocco, Kenya, and Cote d’Ivoire, appeared to act as bridges for connecting African countries (figure 1). South Africa was the most intraregionally connected country in Africa, and it was also the continent’s largest airline market, accounting for about 20 percent of its air traffic. Starting in March 2020, initial changes have been observed, which mostly consist of flow reductions in the northern parts of Africa. Morocco and Tunisia, in particular, reduced their intracontinental flights. Several other African countries, including South Africa, on the other hand, have shown a less significant reduction in connectivity and flow magnitude, indicating that in March 2020 Southern Africa was still well connected. Starting in April 2020, almost all intra-African flights have collapsed; a recovery gradually started in July/August 2020. By the end of 2020, the connectivity of the African country network largely recovered, but the flows have been smaller compared to the first two months of 2020. South Africa A similar impact has been registered in the Southern African market, one of the essential connectivity nodes in Africa, where connectivity was the most dropped to the point of becoming almost nonexistent during the COVID-19 outbreak of May/June 2020. Somewhat strikingly, these intraregionally highly connected countries have also been identified as having high connected correlation with the evolution of the COVID-19 virus. In other words, air transportation could indeed play a critical role in the spread country in Africa, of the virus in Africa, an observation consistent with the literature using data from other parts of the world (Sun et al. 2022). The other and also the African countries, whose air transport volumes and degrees of con- nectivity have been much lower, were less synchronized between the continent’s largest air connectivity and COVID-19 spread; rather, they appeared to have airline market. developed with their own epidemiological characteristics. Africa was almost disconnected from the other continents and regions between April and June 2020, due largely to the flight bans adopted by the other countries. During the same time period, most African governments also took drastic control measures, all of which helped contain the spread of the virus in Africa.2 This has been confirmed by Sun et al. (2022) who argue that Africa’s low air transport connectivity can be another potential 2 The phenomenon of the much lower number of COVID-19 cases and deaths in Africa has been considered as a “puzzle,” in that at the early stage of COVID-19 crisis, the African continent was predicted, by both scientists and the public, to face a tremendous number of cases and fatalities. In the literature, several explanations for the unexpected performance have been proposed, including a relatively young population in Africa, more historical-driven preparedness to other types of coronavirus and diseases, and a limited amount of testing. SPRING 2023 EDITION 5 explanation independent of the existing explanations. Using flight data for 2020, they explore how changes in the system correlate with evolution of epidemiological indicators and suggest that Africa’s low air connectivity is a factor for the relatively smaller spread of COVID-19.3 As a result of its relatively less severe COVID-19 crisis, Africa has actually gained in airport connectivity against the rest of the world (table 1). No African airports were ranked in the top 70 in the world in 2019. But in 2020, CAI (Cairo International Airport) jumped to no. 67.4 In 2020, the top three airports in Africa average at no. 87, an improvement of 17 positions in the world (the same average is 104 in 2019). Further, the average ranking for the top 10 African airports is 181 in the world (versus 202 in 2019), whereas the average world ranking for the top 20 African airports is 272 (versus 298 in 2019). Against this trend is JNB’s position, however: JNB (Johannesburg O.R. Tambo International Airport) actually falls back, from no. 112 in the world in 2019, to no. 135 in As a result of its 2020 (and from the second most-connected African airport in 2019, to the fourth position in 2020). Overall, while the pandemic has reduced relatively less global air connectivity significantly, 11 of the top 20 ranked airports in Africa improved their global ranking in 2020. LOS (Lagos, Nigeria), for severe COVID-19 instance, jumps from no. 315 to no. 245, an improvement of 70 posi- crisis, Africa tions. We observed similar trends in 2021 as well. has actually The Southern African region’s domestic, regional, and international air traffic and network patterns significantly changed under the impact gained in airport of the pandemic, and so far, the recovery pattern appears to have connectivity favored regional connections. In 2019, airports in South Africa were far more connected than other countries in the region: JNB, Cape against the rest Town Airport (CPT), and Durban King Shaka International Airport (DUR) in South Africa were the three busiest airports, accounting for of the world. about 74 percent of traffic of all airports in Southern Africa (figure 2). Intercontinental flows occupied a larger proportion than the intracon- tinental traffic in South Africa, reflective of South African Airways’ (SAA) previous business model, which flew international routes to and from major international hubs. By contrast, domestic air travel was much smaller in the other four countries and their international flows were all dominated by intracontinental traffic. After the outbreak of COVID-19, the region saw a reduction of over 63 percent in traffic in 2020, with a slight recovery of about 4 percent of total traffic in 2022. Their intra-Africa international traffic improved in proportion to their total international traffic, with an increase of 4 percent and 16 percent in 2020 and 2021, respectively. 3 This conclusion appears to still hold as we see an increase in African cases due to the emergence of Omicron (and to a lesser extent, lags in vaccination) in early 2022. The updated data shows that overall, the Omicron variant has had a relatively mild impact on air connections. Its emergence did lead to a decline in Africa’s intracontinental flights, though within a short time impact on air connections. Its emergence did lead to a decline in Africa’s intracontinental flights, though within a short time period (no longer than a month or so). 4 Recall that Cairo was ranked no. 127 in 2019. Thus, its improvement is significant. Given its weak connectivity in intracontinental traffic, relative to that of South Africa or Nigeria, this implies Cairo was especially well connected intercontinentally compared to other African airports during the pandemic. 6 MOBILITY AND DEVELOPMENT: INNOVATIONS, POLICIES, AND PRACTICES Prior to the pandemic, South Africa’s domestic network was dominated by the Johannesburg–Cape Town, Johannesburg–Durban, and Cape Town–Durban routes, which form the so-called “golden triangle.” As the pandemic hit in 2020, domestic air flights in South Africa were even suspended, due to stringent lockdown measures imple- mented by South Africa, the most hard-hit country in Africa and in the world from 2020 to 2021. In the first year of the pandemic, the already thin international traffic flows became thinner, but most of the routes were kept (with each route having fewer passen- gers). The total traffic within the region, however, increased by about 4 percent in 2021 compared to 2020, suggesting the traffic became more concentrated at the major routes and hubs in 2021. Similarly, intra-Africa international traffic share improved in propor- tion to their total international traffic, with an increase of 4 percent and 16 percent in 2020 and 2021 respectively. This overall result aligns with several recent studies, which indicated a silver lining of the pandemic is that its disruption stimulated Africa’s regional and continental integration (Arezki et al. 2020; Isaac 2020; Medinilla, Byiers, and Apiko 2020; Morsy et al. 2021; Yingi 2022).5 Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Airline Market Structure The pandemic has altered the structure of the Southern African airline market, resulting in less competition. In 2019, most routes in the region were monopolized by the three national airlines, South African Airways (SAA), Air Namibia, and Air Botswana. Six duopoly routes, with two kinds of duopoly competition—one involving two airlines—had about the same market shares (for example, routes between Johannesburg (JNB) and Maun (Botswana) as well as between Cape Town and Walvis Bay (Namibia), and another type, where one airline dominated the route with about two-thirds market share (for example, the JNB–Windhoek route, which was dominated by Air Namibia). There were also limited “competitive” routes on which three or more airlines were operating. Those “compet- itive” routes linked major hubs in Namibia (Windhoek and Walvis Bay) and Gaborone (Botswana) with the biggest hub in this region, JNB. As the effect of the pandemic continued, 14 routes that had been active in 2019 were suspended for the whole year of 2021. SA Airlink, a South African-based privately held carrier, monopolized 16 out of 22 routes and occupied more than two-thirds of the traffic on the bidirectional routes between Cape Town and Windhoek, replacing the roles played by SAA (under administra- tion) and Air Namibia (liquidated in 2020). In fact, SA Airlink took the position of SAA by grabbing about an 82 percent market share of international traffic within Southern Africa. In sum, the market structure was significantly influenced by the pandemic, leaving only four airlines serving the international air passenger market within the region in 2021.6 5 As for the cross-border traffic, the passenger flows between South Africa’s main hubs and Namibia’s two hubs, Hosea Kutako International Airport (WDH) in Windhoek and Walvis Bay International Airport (WVB), were the most active. This might be related to a bilateral liberalization development: in October 2016, South Africa and Namibia signed a bilateral air service agreement (BASA) to operate an unlimited number of flights per week per side and the relaxation of fifth-freedom traffic rights at intra-African points (Mhlanga and Steyn 2016). This is followed by the air routes between Gaborone (GBE) in Botswana and South Africa’s hubs, especially JNB. Surrounded by South Africa, Lesotho and Eswatini had the lowest level of intraregional and international air passenger flows in Southern Africa. 6 Air Botswana shared portions of traffic across major airports in Botswana and South Africa. After the suspension of Air Namibia, privately owned airlines Westair Aviation and FlyNamibia, Namibia’s first private scheduled passenger airline, shared a small portion of the traffic linking hubs in South Africa and Namibia left by SA Airlink. SPRING 2023 EDITION 7 The long-term pattern of the market structure, which was being shaped by liberalization policies has been visibly disrupted by the pandemic (figure 3). Before 2015, monopoly routes accounted for around 70 percent of the total international routes. However, a significant increase in shares of nonmonopoly routes, occupied by two or more airlines, had been seen since January 2015. The routes competed by four airlines emerged after the declaration on the Single African Air Transport Market (SAATM) in the same year. The percentage of monopoly routes was at the lowest level from June 2015 to September 2015, at less than 40 percent. Another trough in the share of monopoly routes between October 2016 to January 2017 was also seen, as South Africa and The pandemic Namibia signed a liberal bilateral air services agreement (BASA) in October 2016, which granted an unlimited number of flights per week has altered the per side for passenger services and allowed flexible fifth-freedom traffic rights at intra-African points (Mhlanga and Steyn 2016). The proportion structure of of monopoly air routes fluctuated around a relatively low level from the Southern 2015 to the first half of 2017, reflecting the impetus of the liberalization movements for increasing competition. But the implementation of African airline SAATM by the governments seemed insufficient to exert its benefits in the long run as time went by, and the double-whammy coming from market, resulting the pandemic, and longstanding struggles of troubled of state-owned in reversal of airlines have also significantly limited competition. market share in The pandemic has altered the structure of the Southern African airline market, resulting in a reversal of market share in favor of privately favor of privately owned carriers. The evolution of the market share by privately owned carriers in Southern Africa shows the influence of the new liberalization owned carriers. movement, reflected by the wave crests appearing in 2015 (figure 4, panel a). But, its influence, as in the market structure case, did not last long, implying that the countries might still need improvements in fully implementing their commitments for SAATM. May 2020 witnessed a dramatic increase in the market share of private airlines (figure 4, panel b), which peaked at 100 percent in July 2020. After October 2020, it fluctuated around a high level, nearly 90 percent. In South Africa, private airlines also increased their market share to 90 percent in 2021. In South Africa, three state-owned carriers existed within a competitive air transport market, accounting in 2019 for 50 percent of the market share, which fell to 10 percent in 2021 (figure 5). These include: SAA, an integrated full-service network carrier (FSNC) that operated on long-haul routes, domestic routes—although in a multiyear domestic con- solidation, and on African regional routes with wide-body and narrow-body aircraft until it temporarily ceased operations in September 2020 and recommenced a year later; SA Express Airways (SAX), which operated smaller turboprop aircraft and regional jets under a franchise agreement with SAA until April 28, 2020, when it ceased operations and was subsequently placed under provisional liquidation that is still ongoing; Mango Airlines, the low-cost carriers (LCC) fully owned by SAA, which operated primarily on domestic 8 MOBILITY AND DEVELOPMENT: INNOVATIONS, POLICIES, AND PRACTICES routes within South Africa (and previously, a single regional route) until it was grounded on April 28, 2021, due to nonpayment of outstanding debt and placed in business rescue by court order on August 10, 2021, with an effective date of July 28, 2021. Altogether, all LCCs (Mango Airlines, FlySafari, and Kulula.com) reached a dominant position in South Africa, accounting for more than 60 percent share in 2019. Together with LIFT Airline, a new LCC entrant amid the pandemic, these carriers now account for an 86.6 percent share. At the same time, the overall market share of the traditional airlines has dropped from 81.7 percent in 2019 to 13.4 percent in 2020. Determinants of Air Transport Connectivity and Impact of Pandemic In the Southern Africa region, the potential for international air traffic is high, yet the markets still need to mature and several airlines are financially weak and unstable. In addition to tourism, air transport connectivity is critical to trade and economic develop- ment as well as to human mobility, especially in the context of Africa with vast landmass and relatively limited road, rail, and water transport. This calls for a closer scrutiny of which factors promote or discourage air transport connectivity in the region, and how they might have been shaped by the pandemic. What follows presents the main findings from a gravity model, which identify and quan- tify the determinants of intraregional (cross-border) air transport connectivity measured both from the demand and supply side, using air passenger traffic, air transport capacity, and flight frequency. The main factors promoting air connectivity are economic levels, air transport liberalization, presence of low-cost carriers, airline privatization, tourism resources, colonial relations, and common language, while high market concentration, distance, and diplomatic disagreements are among the hindering factors. • Gross regional product (GRP) density (proxied by nighttime light intensity) in origin and destination cities is conducive to air connectivity in terms of frequency, capacity, and passenger volume, suggesting economic development is still an engine for air travel. The effect of GRP in the origin country is about 2 percent higher than the effect of GRP in the destination country, which means that passengers from richer countries are slightly more likely to travel by air to other countries. • The implementation of the Single African Air Transport Market (SAATM) has a signif- icant positive effect on the intraregional cross-border air connectivity in Southern Africa. Its adoption would increase the intraregional flight frequency, capacity, and air passenger traffic, by about 8.5 percent, 27 percent, and 45 percent, respectively. SPRING 2023 EDITION 9 • The effects of tourism resources in origin and tourism resources in the destination are significantly positive, with the latter being slightly higher than the former (by about 3 percent). It indicates that high natural and cultural resource levels are benefi- cial to air passenger transport in the Southern Africa region. • Market competition (measured using the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index, or HHI) is Mobility negatively correlated with air passenger traffic, total seats, and flight frequency, Development AND indicating a higher degree of competition increases the total supply for air transport I N N O V A T I O N S , P O L I C I E S A N D P R A C T I C E S and promotes air passenger traffic. The positive impact of competition on air traffic is through the channel of airfare—that is, competition lowers fares—which in turn stim- ulates demand. The study found that an increase in HHI by 1 percent would cause a 67 percent increase in average airfare. SPRING 2023 EDITION • The presence of LCCs significantly increases the flight frequency, capacity, and air passenger volume in Southern Africa. Specifically, every 1 percent increase in LCCs Complete Spring 2023 in a route increases the flight frequency, capacity, and air passenger volume by 58 Publication available percent, 152 percent, and 90 percent respectively. Essentially, the entry of LCCs can here expand the market by increasing supply and creating new air transport demand. • The presence of a private airline in a route leads to a 31 percent increase in flight frequency, 73 percent increase in airline capacity, and 639 percent increase air traffic. As the South African government turned to a more acceptable attitude to private investment in 2021, we could ambitiously expect a more extensive privatization of the operating airlines in Southern Africa and even the whole continent, which would result in significant improvement in intraregional air connectivity in the near future. • Historical colonial relations still significantly affect international air connectivity in Southern Africa: having colonial relations post-1945 could increase by about 122 percent of flight frequency, 176 percent of total seats, and 114 percent of passenger volume, which is in line with the results of Button, Martini, and Scotti (2015). • The spread of the COVID-19 virus negatively influenced air connectivity in the region. Every 1 percent increase in new confirmed cases caused a 33.6 percent decrease in passenger traffic, 12.7 percent decrease in scheduled seats, and 9.1 percent decrease in flight frequency. The impact of the pandemic presents seasonality, which is more severe in cold months and milder in hot months. • Governments’ restriction measures significantly abated air transport connectivity, while vaccination helped to recover air connectivity from the demand side and supply side. Every 1 percent increase of people who got vaccinated brought about 3 percent increase in flight frequency, 1.3 percent increase in airline capacity, and a 2.3 percent increase in demand. 10 MOBILITY AND DEVELOPMENT: INNOVATIONS, POLICIES, AND PRACTICES Figure 1. Evolution of Air Transport Country Network, Monthly Flights in 2020 and 2021 Source: World Bank 2022, based on data from Flightradar24. Note: The thickness of a link corresponds to the total number of flights between a pair of countries. Each subplot corresponds to the country network at a given month in 2020 and 2021. The figure shows that several countries along Africa’s coastline appear to act as bridges to connect African countries. These countries include South Africa, Ethiopia, Morocco, Kenya, and Côte d’Ivoire. SPRING 2023 EDITION 11 Figure 2. Decline of Air Passenger Flows Across All Southern Africa Airports and Regional Networks Source: Original figure produced for this publication, based on OAG data. 12 MOBILITY AND DEVELOPMENT: INNOVATIONS, POLICIES, AND PRACTICES Figure 3. Evolution of Airline Market Structure in Southern Africa, January 2012 to September 2021 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18 Jan-20 May-20 Sep-20 Jan-21 May-21 Sep-21 Jan-19 Sep-19 May-19 Monopoly Duopoly Three airlines Four airlines Source: Original figure produced for this publication, based on OAG data. Note: The vertical axis denotes the percentage of routes dominated by one, two, three or four airlines. We use the 1/(Herfindahl–Hirschman index) to define the number of dominating airlines. Figure 4. Evolution of Market Shares 100.0% a. Shares of market by business model in South Africa 90.0% 100.0% 80.0% 90.0% 70.0% 80.0% 60.0% 70.0% 50.0% 60.0% 40.0% 50.0% 30.0% 40.0% 20.0% 30.0% 10.0% 20.0% 0.0% 10.0% 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019 2020 2021 0.0% 1999 2004 2009 2014 Tradtional Airlines LLCs 2019 2020 2021 Tradtional Airlines LLCs b. Shares of private airlines and low-cost airlines in Southern Africa 100% 100% 90% 90% 80% 80% 70% 70% 60% 60% 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% 0% Jan-19 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18 May-19 Sep-19 Jan-20 May-20 Sep-20 Jan-21 May-21 Sep-21 Jan-19 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18 May-19 Sep-19 Jan-20 May-20 Sep-20 Jan-21 May-21 Sep-21 Source: Original figure produced for this publication, based on OAG data. Note: World Bank 2022. SPRING 2023 EDITION 13 Table 1. Key Characteristics of Existing Road Funds in India ICAO City, Country World Rank Change in rank Code 2019 2020 2021 2019–2020 2020–2021 ADD Addis Ababa, Ethiopia 72 87 57 15 30 JNB Johannesburg International, 112 135 149 23 14 South Africa CAI Cairo, Egypt 127 67 56 60 11 CMN Casablanca Mohammed V 142 106 148 36 42 Apt, Morocco NBO Nairobi Jomo Kenyatta 178 209 177 31 32 International Apt, Kenya RAK Marrakech, Morocco 232 244 340 12 96 ALG Algiers, Algeria 253 229 262 24 33 TUN Tunis, Tunisia 278 238 260 40 22 CPT Cape Town, South Africa 308 355 382 47 27 LOS Lagos, Nigeria 315 245 239 70 6 HRG Hurghada, Egypt 316 254 111 62 143 MRU Mauritius, Mauritius 341 426 470 85 44 SID Sal Island, Cape Verde 382 238 435 144 197 LAD Luanda, Angola 385 416 475 31 59 MIR Monastir, Tunisia 393 588 567 195 21 AGA Agadir, Morocco 403 436 406 33 30 DAR Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania 415 355 314 60 41 ABJ Abidjan, Cote D'Ivoire 429 391 444 38 53 DSS Dakar Blaise Diagne, 434 369 409 65 40 Senegal ABV Abuja, Nigeria 446 379 421 67 42 Source: Original table produced for this publication, based on Cheung et al. 2020. Note: The first column is the three-letter International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) code for airport. To see Africa’s connectivity from the perspective of its airports, we update the “global airport connectivity index” (GACI) developed by Cheung et al. (2020). The GACI is a composite representation of five individual connectivity measures, with the weights being determined by a principal component method. The analysis includes a total of 3,737 airports worldwide. The GACIs for all the African airports with scheduled flight connections—a total of 476 such airports—are then extracted from this world set. These are yearly GACIs, covering a period between 2006 and 2021 (note Cheung et al. 2020 cover the index for 2006–2016). 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