COVID-19 and Femicides in Brazil The analytical work presented in this note has been funded by a UKRI Agile Covid-19 GCRF and Newton Fund grant (ref. EP/V029088/1) and by a World Bank Advisory Services and Analytics (ASA) project for Expanding the GBV Portfolio in Brazil (P177107). It summarizes the results of the project “COVID-19, social distancing and violence against women in Brazil (BRAVE)”, a partnership between the University of York (UK) and the research group Brazilian Women in Economics (hosted by the University of Sao Paulo), and of a deliverable under the World Bank ASA. The work herein was conducted jointly by the BRAVE team, led by Maria Dolores Montoya-Diaz, Paula Pereda, Fabiana Rocha and Rodrigo Moreno-Serra; and the World Bank team, led by Paula Tavares, Flávia Carbonari and Manuel Contreras. Roberta Gregoli provided crucial research support in the analysis of policy trends. The teams would like to thank peer reviewers Pablo Acosta and Diana Arango, from the World Bank Brazil CMU and Gender CCSA respectively, whose recommendations contributed to improve tremendously the final draft of this note; as well as the support of the World Bank Brazil CMU and Country office staff, and of the CMU and regional communications teams, including Diana Moss, Sidronio Gomes de Araújo, Mariana Ceratti, Juliana Braga and Maria Jose Rivas. Published: December 2022 Content The context 04 How did countries, including Brazil, respond to impacts of COVID-19 on VAW? 07 Case study of the consequences of social distancing measures implemented 10 to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic in the State of São Paulo, Brazil, on femicides Methodology 11 Main variables of interest 11 Other explanatory variables 13 Estimation methods 15 What did the case study find? 16 The impact of social distancing measures on femicides in the State of São Paulo, 17 Conclusions 18 Responding to impacts of COVID-19 on femicides: some preliminary lessons 20 and policy recommendations References 23 World Bank COVID-19 and femicides in Brazil Pag. 4 The Context World Bank COVID-19 and femicides in Brazil Pag. 5 THE CONTEXT Many studies have assessed the impact of COVID-19 and 50% of the recorded cases among women aged 18- and social isolation policies on various forms of 59 are perpetrated by their current or former intimate domestic violence, but very few have sought to study partners (Waiselfisz 2015). the effects on femicides. The conclusions from this existing literature are mixed1 , suggesting the need for Evidence from monitoring of measures adopted by further research with this focus. Femicide has a strong different countries, including Brazil, suggests trends and prolonged impact on women’s families2. Surviving of policies and interventions for addressing VAW children of women killed by their intimate partners during COVID-19. Key measures implemented involved experience lasting adverse effects as they lose one strengthening response and support systems; ensuring parent to murder, the other to prison, and often have financial and human resources to maintain essential to leave their parents’ home and adapt to a new living services for violence survivors; expanding awareness environment (WHO, 2012). and access to information; and adopting technology- based solutions and innovative adaptations (Bastos et In 2017, according to the World Health Organization al. 2020). In Brazil, similar key policies and interventions (WHO), Brazil had the fifth-highest rank in femicide were adopted at the federal and state levels, including rates among the 83 nations for which statistics in São Paulo State and its municipalities. were available. Although since 2015 the crime of femicide has been punished with stricter penalties, it This note, based on Diaz et al. (2022), provides a still represents a significant public health burden in case study of the consequences of social distancing Brazil. The rate of 4.8 homicides per 100,000 women measures implemented to deal with the COVID-19 is only below those observed in El Salvador, Colombia, pandemic in the State of São Paulo, Brazil, on Guatemala, and Russia. Further, an important share of femicides, the most extreme form of violence against homicides (about 25%) occurs within the victim’s home, women (VAW)3. Our focus on femicides was determined 1 For example, Asik and Nas Ozen (2021) found that social distancing led to a decrease in femicides in Turkey. By contrast, Hoehn-Velasco et al. (2021) reported a stability of femicides in Mexico with respect to social isolation during the pandemic. 2 Femicide, the most extreme form of violence against women (VAW), is generally defined as the intentional murder of women because they are women (World Health Organization 2012). 3 The State of São Paulo was selected for this analysis for the following key reasons: i) it comprises more than 20% of the total Brazilian population; ii) Since 2000, São Paulo has had a system to file police reports over the internet, which enables access to systematic data for the analysis, and as of April 3, 2020, the reporting of domestic violence cases was allowed as part of the system; iii) Brazil recorded 1,229, 1,330 and 1,350 femicides in 2018, 2019 and 2020 (respectively), and the State of São Paulo accounted for around 11% of these cases in 2018 and 13.5% in the other years, reaching 168 cases of femicide in 2020 (Diaz et al. 2022), figures that are relatively high also by international standards. World Bank COVID-19 and femicides in Brazil Pag. 6 by the fact that high rates of these cases in Brazil have between femicide incidence and the implementation of raised concerns and because femicide data is less likely emergency cash transfers by the federal government to to suffer from underreporting, a known data limitation relieve household financial stress during the pandemic. in the literature. The analysis distinguishes between Based on existing evidence on responses by countries, the consequences of social distancing measures and including Brazil, to impacts of COVID-19 on VAW, this the potential effects of other pandemic-related factors note further suggests some preliminary lessons and on the incidence of femicides, in particular the increase policy recommendations for preventing and mitigating in unemployment and consequent loss of household impacts of social distancing measures on VAW. income. It also explores the possible relationship World Bank COVID-19 and femicides in Brazil Pag. 7 How did Countries, Including Brazil, Respond to Impacts of COVID-19 on VAW? World Bank COVID-19 and femicides in Brazil Pag. 8 HOW DID COUNTRIES, INCLUDING BRAZIL, RESPOND TO IMPACTS OF COVID-19 ON VAW? Evidence from early monitoring of measures adopted should be communicated to authorities within 48 by different countries suggested trends of policies hours. It also determined that security agencies should and interventions for short-term relief in addressing create virtual assistance communication channels VAW during COVID-19 . Key measures implemented 4 for survivors, that urgent protective measures could involved strengthening response and support be requested through online channels and that any systems, including helplines, psychosocial support, such measures should be automatically extended and alternative accommodation for women; ensuring and enforced throughout the pandemic. In addition, minimum budgeting and human and financial resources the government launched a national contingency to maintain essential services for violence survivors; plan including a national awareness and information and expanding awareness and access to information. campaign targeting survivors, men and bystanders, the In addition, technology-based solutions and innovative creation of online and digital platforms for reporting, adaptations to enable and expand access to security among others. and judicial services and psychological support proved to be critical (Bastos et al. 2020). In particular, in light of employment shocks experienced particularly by the more vulnerable, In Brazil, similar key policies and interventions were especially women, measures targeting their adopted at the federal level in the first few months of economic security were also relevant to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as in São Paulo State gendered impacts of the COVID-19 crisis, including, and its municipalities (box 1). Between March and in certain contexts, on VAW. Analysis of fiscal July 2020, the federal government adopted legislation and economic, social protection and labor market designating VAW services as essential which should measures registered globally throughout 2020 and remain open during the pandemic, and mandating 2021 shows that 13% address women’s economic that cases reported through the national VAW helpline security5. Close to half of these were adopted as part 4 In 2020, the World Bank started to systematize information on “GBV and COVID-19 Initiatives” including VAW policy responses. The early monitoring exercise identified five major trends in initiatives: (i) adaptations to justice sector interventions; (ii) communications campaigns using mass media; (iii) increased resources available to survivors; (iv) innovations in the provision of support to survivors; and (v) increased funding to organizations that work on the prevention of VAW. The World Bank discontinued this monitoring in 2021 given the existence of other similar and broader efforts; the resource however was a key basis for World Bank analysis on trends in early 2020. 5 The analysis examined data obtained from the UNDP and UN Women’s COVID-19 Global Gender Response Tracker, which monitors responses adopted by governments worldwide to tackle the pandemic, highlighting those that have integrated a gender lens. More information can be found at https://data.undp.org/ gendertracker/ World Bank COVID-19 and femicides in Brazil Pag. 9 of social protection programmes, mostly through cash passed legislation providing for emergency cash transfers that prioritize women as the main recipients, transfers to low-income families, as earlier referenced, showing the relevance of this form of policy response particularly prioritizing single mothers (women head of in strengthening women’s economic security in the households with young children), who received double context of COVID-196. In Brazil, the federal government the financial benefit7. Box 1. Policy responses addressing VAW in São Paulo, Brazil Given the focus of this note on São Paulo data, it is worth mentioning some of the policies adopted at the state and city level to address increased rates of VAW during the pandemic. In São Paulo, all 134 VAW-specialized police stations in the state continued working normal hours. In April 2020, the police force created an online portal where domestic violence survivors can request restraining orders. São Paulo state also hosted live sessions and developed videos aimed at raising awareness on VAW during the pandemic. Furthermore, four new VAW-specialized police stations were launched in the following cities: São Caetano do Sul, Itanhaém, Itaquaquecetuba e Arujá. In June 2020, São Paulo city launched a package targeted at vulnerable women, which included additional housing, specialized support, financial aid, awareness-raising and capacity building measures. The package included training 60 additional female attendants to provide specialized support for VAW survivors through the city’s hotline and an awareness-raising campaign and building capacity on VAW for health agents who perform home visits to vulnerable families, expanding the number of agents with this kind of training from 756 to 3,630. Hotel rooms were offered to vulnerable women (i.e., whose income corresponded to one fourth of the minimum wage or less) who had requested restraining orders, in addition to a 400 BRL voucher as housing support8 . In addition, other initiatives were launched, including a campaign against abuse in public transportation, new survivor support units in bus and subway terminals, and the creation of the Violence Against Women Observatory. Sources: UNDP 2020, Governo de São Paulo 2020 and Cidade de São Paulo 2020. 6 COVID-19 Global Gender Response Tracker Global Fact Sheet (https://www.undp.org/sites/g/files/zskgke326/files/2021-11/undp-unwomen-covid19-glo- bal-regional-factsheet-2020-en-v4.pdf) 7 On April 2, 2020, Law 13.982 was enacted providing for emergency financial support of R$600 (USD 115) to low income families, whereby single mothers were granted twice the amount and were prioritized in withdrawing the cash 8 The housing support (auxílio aluguel) was established by Law 17.320/2020 and regulated by Decree 60.111/2021. World Bank COVID-19 and femicides in Brazil Pag. 10 Case Study of the Consequences of Social Distancing Measures Implemented to Deal with the COVID-19 Pandemic in the State of São Paulo, Brazil, on Femicides World Bank COVID-19 and femicides in Brazil Pag. 11 CASE STUDY OF THE CONSEQUENCES OF SOCIAL DISTANCING MEASURES IMPLEMENTED TO DEAL WITH THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC IN THE STATE OF SÃO PAULO, BRAZIL, ON FEMICIDES Methodology This case study analysed quantitatively the impacts (2016 to 2019), as well as to later and earlier periods of social distancing measures on the probability of 2020. Our analyses for Brazil examined data at of femicides in the State of Sao Paulo, Brazil. As the municipality level for the State of São Paulo, for detailed below, these impacts were estimated through all its 645 municipalities, ranging from January 2016 fixed-effects regression models that compared (i.e., pre-pandemic) to December 2020 (i.e., including femicide data in the State for the period of higher periods after stay-at-home orders were implemented social distancing during the pandemic (March-April in the State beginning on 22 March 2020). 2020) to corresponding periods in previous years Main Variables of Interest Our main outcome variable was the probability digital police records (Public Security Office). The of a femicide occurrence, in a given municipality, evolution of femicides before and after the first official during the period of higher social distancing during case of COVID-19 in the State, and of the introduction the pandemic. This probability was measured by a of social distancing and other pandemic-related policy binary variable that equals one if a femicide occurred measures, is displayed in Figure 1 (Diaz et al. 2022). during that period in the municipality, zero otherwise. Weekly and monthly data on femicide episodes were calculated from the data available at the State’s World Bank COVID-19 and femicides in Brazil Pag. 12 Figure 1: AVERAGE NUMBER OF FEMICIDE VICTIMS BY MONTH OF THE YEAR IN THE STATE OF SAO PAULO, BRAZIL (2016-19 AND 2020) The degree of social distancing adherence in each financial aid program (obtained from the Ministry of municipality was the main explanatory variable Citizenship), other socio-economic characteristics in our analyses. This was measured using a InLoco of the municipalities (poverty and extreme poverty Social Isolation Index-SII9 based on anonymised, user- rates, a multidimensional social vulnerability index) authorised location data collected daily from 60 million and a constructed measure of monthly changes in mobile phones, indicating the percentage of devices employment by gender and industry. that remained within a 450-metre radius of the home location. InLoco index information was gathered for the period between 1 February 2020 and 31 December 2020 (Figure 2). Additional data used include information about each municipality’s monthly share of beneficiaries of the federal COVID-19 emergency 9 InLoco. Mapa brasileiro da COVID-19. https://tinyurl.com/ybepensd (Accessed: 13/10/21). World Bank COVID-19 and femicides in Brazil Pag. 13 Figure 2: EVOLUTION OF THE INLOCO SOCIAL DISTANCING INDEX IN THE STATE OF SAO PAULO, BRAZIL (01 FEB 2020-31 DEC 2020) Other Explanatory Variables To investigate possible economic channels influencing by men have more severe job losses and defined a binary the femicide impacts of social distancing during the variable that takes the value of one if the municipality pandemic, we constructed a measure of employment had employment destruction in industries dominated shocks from data of formal employment databases10. by men. Figure 3 shows the spatial distribution of This variable can be interpreted as an expected rate the employment shock in the state of São Paulo. The of employment loss, expressed as a fraction of the most and least affected municipalities (in terms of job municipality population. It can take either positive or losses) are highlighted in yellow (job losses of 0.2% or negative values, where negative values indicate net more) and green (employment loss lower than 0.2%). employment destruction. We used this measure to identify the municipalities where industries dominated 10 Sources: General Register of the Employed and Unemployed (CAGED) for recruitment and termination of employment and annual employment from the Annual Social Information List (RAIS) for 2019 (i.e. before the COVID-19 pandemic). World Bank COVID-19 and femicides in Brazil Pag. 14 Figure 3: Employment shock by municipality, April 2020 To further investigate economic factors potentially Families in a situation of extreme poverty are defined influencing the impacts of social distancing on as those with a monthly income of up to R$70.00 per femicides, along with possible differential impacts person12 or US$ 39.7613. We defined a municipality as according to socio-economic conditions, we obtained being “extremely poor” if it had a percentage of families poverty index data from the ‘‘Atlas of Human in extreme poverty that is above the median for the Development in Brazil’’ platform11. This index is defined state (1.08%). The municipalities identified as extremely according to the eligibility criteria of Bolsa Família, the poor according to this definition are depicted in green largest conditional cash transfer program in Brazil. and yellow in Figure 4. Figure 4: Distribution of Sao Paulo municipalities accor- ding to the proportion of families living in extreme poverty 11 This platform is the result of a partnership between the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the Institute for Applied Economic Research (IPEA), and the Joao Pinheiro Foundation (FJP). As detailed in \url{http://www.atlasbrasil.org.br/acervo/atlas} ‘‘Conceived with the purpose of presenting the Municipal Human Development Index (MHDI), the Atlas currently makes available, in addition to the index, more than 330 indicators that encompass topics such as health, education, income and labor, housing, social vulnerability, environment and political participation, for the 5,570 cities (...)’’. 12 Value of 2010 August. 13 We consider the average PTAX R$$ of 1.76 for 2010. World Bank COVID-19 and femicides in Brazil Pag. 15 As a final economic channel potentially affecting December 2020 to adults with no formal employment, the social distancing impacts on femicides, we from families with a monthly per capita income of up to also examined data on the coverage of the federal half the minimum wage, or total monthly family income emergency financial aid program, defined as the of up to three times the minimum wage. The share of proportion of beneficiary families in each São Paulo emergency aid beneficiary families by municipality in municipality. Financial aid was offered from April to São Paulo is depicted in Figure 5. Figure 5: Share of families in receipt of emergency financial aid by municipality – April 2020 Estimation Methods We estimated how changes in factors such as social distancing adherence, employment, and the share of emergency aid beneficiaries influenced the probability of a femicide occurrence in a given municipality. Our empirical strategy relies on the variation in the timing of social distancing implementation across municipalities, alongside the difference in femicide rates and other municipality factors between 2020 and the previous years. We estimated linear models with multi-way fixed effects applied to different samples: first, the sample including all municipalities (170,925 municipality-week observations) and, second, the sample including only poor municipalities (83,210 municipality-week observations). World Bank COVID-19 and femicides in Brazil Pag. 16 What did the Case Study Find? World Bank COVID-19 and femicides in Brazil Pag. 17 WHAT DID THE CASE STUDY FIND? The Impact of Social Distancing Measures on Femicides in the State of São Paulo, Brazil Overall, higher social isolation in São Paulo State effect associated with the financial aid in extremely municipalities after the outbreak of the COVID-19 poor municipalities is more than two times greater pandemic led to an increase in the probability of than the negative effect of the employment shock. femicide in these municipalities. The probability of a This suggests that the poverty “safety net” in the form femicide almost doubled during the most pronounced of financial aid offered by the federal government to period of isolation: from the pre-pandemic average of vulnerable families, amid the context of economic 0.174 femicides per municipality-year, the measured downturn during the pandemic, has had a protective impact was an increase of 0.169 percentage points role against further negative consequences of social in this probability. Our findings also suggest that this isolation on the probability of femicide. incremental effect on the probability of femicide due to social isolation was driven by employment shocks in male-dominated sectors. Although our evidence indicates that the harmful effect of increased social distancing on the probability of femicide was the same on average between poorer and richer municipalities, financial aid to poorer families did contribute to mitigate that harmful effect. We find that, considering that the average share of people who received financial aid is 29.8% in the extremely poor municipalities, the World Bank COVID-19 and femicides in Brazil Pag. 18 Conclusions World Bank COVID-19 and femicides in Brazil Pag. 19 CONCLUSIONS Our analysis indicates that the probability of The above is important to consider also because, femicide in any given municipality of the State of São while initial spikes of domestic violence during Paulo nearly doubled during the more pronounced COVID-19 were associated more directly with social isolation period after the COVID-19 outbreak. quarantine measures, job losses and constrained There are several potential mechanisms that may financial sustainability for women in later stages have influenced the occurrence of femicides during of the pandemic were identified as potential drivers the pandemic. We explored the role of job losses in of increased abuse within the home and declines male dominated industries, poverty and financial aid in reporting (Tavares, P. 2021). And indeed, lack of provided by the government as pathways through financial independence has been consistently pointed which social isolation may affect the risk of femicide. out as a major factor contributing to VAW during the We find evidence that economic distress increased the pandemic.14 Economic and emotional channels to VAW risk of femicide during the pandemic. are closely related, as pointed out by Beland et al. (2021). All these channels, together with the fact that Our evidence also suggests that governmental people outside the families could not act as agents of financial aid to households mitigated the increase social control (Gelles, 1983), potentialize the pandemic in the risk of femicide. This finding could be linked to effect on violence against women. existing evidence that shows that economic transfers are effective in preventing interpersonal violence, since economic stress is a key driver of VAW. These types of transfers can also increase the economic independence of women, allowing them to leave abusive relationships (Kerr-Wilson et al 2020; Baranov et al., 2021). 14 Examples of evidence during COVID-19 include: Social media analysis echoed an emphasis on financial challenges in relation to domestic violence during the lockdown (Ah-Rawi, 2021); A phone survey in Indonesia analysed factors that might mitigate the risk of gender-based violence (GBV) during COVID-19 (World Bank 2020). The main predictors of exposure to GBV were associated to economic stress. Moreover, food insecurity and the number of household members increase the chances of exposure to VAW. Having a second job was the strongest protective factor from VAW according to the study (Ibid). World Bank COVID-19 and femicides in Brazil Pag. 20 Responding to Impacts of COVID-19 on Femicides: Some Preliminary Lessons and Policy Recommendations World Bank COVID-19 and femicides in Brazil Pag. 21 RESPONDING TO IMPACTS OF COVID-19 ON FEMICIDES: SOME PRELIMINARY LESSONS AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS Femicide is the most extreme form of VAW. Therefore, the consequences of social distancing measures its prevention involves investing in different policy implemented and potential effects of other pandemic- measures likewise set forth as recommendations to related factors on the incidence of femicides, and prevent other forms of violence against women, and the relationship between femicide incidence and the which involve a wide range of sectors and actors. implementation of financial aid measures explored in this note, the following preliminary lessons and In particular, in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, recommendations may be suggested: Strengthening VAW services and of urgent protection measures, as well as the adapting them to virtual contexts, in automatic extension of existing ones, particularly particular: during the period of isolation measures. — Maintaining support health and social services — Further structuring and providing VAW services open (UNICEF 2020; UN Women 2020) and using remote service delivery (UNICEF 2020), determining services for survivors as essential, ensuring safety protocols are in place in VAW- with a high priority on police and justice responses specific helplines, apps, websites etc. to mitigate (UN Women 2020), is crucial to prevent femicides. the threat of violence escalation (Seff et al 2020). The continuation of psychosocial and recreational activities within the limits of local COVID-19 Establishing or Reinforcing Early protocols is also relevant for the benefit of survivors’ Warning /Alert Systems: mental health (IRC 2020). — Usually established and monitored by police — The continuation and adaptation of police reporting departments, these systems include detailed risk systems to ensure accessibility for survivors, in assessments of women who have been previously particular through virtual and digital channels, abused and monitor them more consistently, including the prioritization and urgent response providing them protection and support services. to VAW reported cases and the online availability These systems have expanded significantly and have been transformed by the availability of new World Bank COVID-19 and femicides in Brazil Pag. 22 technology. Police Risk Assessment, the core aggressor before.16 Also, a study conducted by the protocol of the Spanish VioGen system (VPR), for Public Prosecutor of the State of São Paulo in 2018 example, has shown significant results in predicting showed that, in that year, only 4% of the femicide femicides. During contexts of crisis, such as the 15 victims in the state (5 out of 124) had previously pandemic, higher attention should be paid to reported her aggressor.17 Hence it is safe to assume women at higher risk of victimization. that the vast majority of survivors of violence against women in Brazil could not be tracked by Implementing or expanding financial an alert system. This reinforces the importance of aid: also investing in broad and targeted (e.g. at school, workplaces, public spaces, etc.) awareness raising — Adopting or expanding social protection measures campaigns about the availability of services, in the form of financial aid, including direct cash options for reporting and the importance of transfer, staple foods packages, or other subsidies, bystander and community involvement to prevent including cash for care, electric bill, and wage and protect women from escalation of violence subsidies (World Bank 2020). and, ultimately, femicides. — Implementing policies fostering women’s economic empowerment and childcare policies during the pandemic and as part of recovery measures (World Bank 2020). Raising Awareness on VAW reporting and services among survivors, men and the overall community : — Given the high level of underreporting of violence against women, many femicide victims may not be able to be tracked prior to being murdered. In the case of Brazil, for example, according to the Federal Government approximately 70% of women who were victims of femicide had never reported her 15 López-Ossorio, Juan José; González-Álvarez, José Luis; and Antonio Andrés-Pueyo, 2016. 16 https://www.gov.br/mdh/pt-br/assuntos/noticias/2020-2/novembro/70-das-mulheres-vitimas-de-feminicidio-nunca-denunciaram-agressoes. 17 Ministério Público do Estado de São Paulo, 2018. World Bank COVID-19 and femicides in Brazil Pag. 23 References World Bank COVID-19 and femicides in Brazil Pag. 24 REFERENCES — Agüero, J. M. Covid-19 and the rise of intimate partner violence. World development, 137:105217, 2020. — Al-Rawi, Ahmed et al. Investigating public discourses around gender and COVID-19: A social media analysis of Twitter data. Journal of Healthcare Informatics Research 5, 249–269 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s41666-021- 00102-x (Accessed: 19/01/2022). — Asik, G. A., & Ozen, E. N. (2021). 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