TOURISM WATCH
Quarterly Report: Q2 2024
Published October 2024
SUMMARY
As tourism growth rates moderate, value-driven opportunities arise
• GLOBAL OVERVIEW (P.1): In the second quarter of 2024, global tourism demand continues to grow at double
the rate pre-COVID-19 (8 percent year-on-year), though this is slower than in the previous quarter (19 percent),
likely impacted by ongoing economic, geopolitical, and climate events. Forward-looking indicators suggest a
moderation of travel in the second half of 2024, while the increasing importance of longer stays presents an
opportunity to offer lower carbon footprint and more personalized and quality-driven experiences that cater
to travelers seeking sustainable and inclusive options.
• REGIONAL OVERVIEW (P.3): Ongoing conflicts are impacting the tourism economy of affected countries,
especially in the Middle East. The World Tourism Day theme of “Tourism and Peace” highlighted tourism’s role
in fostering peace through valuing and preserving cultural and natural heritage, and nurturing coexistence. In
Europe and Central Asia, increasing demand for emerging destinations, coupled with regulatory and capacity
improvements, show positive prospects for the region.
• SPECIAL POLICY INSERT (P.7): Developing sustainable nature-based tourism can provide jobs to rural areas
while providing revenues to support conservation. Africa has a large young population and high youth and
rural unemployment. It also has a large asset base and comparative advantage in nature-based tourism. The
World Bank Group has a comprehensive set of tools to support and monitor the sustainable development of
nature-based tourism and enable private sector development and community engagement.
GLOBAL OVERVIEW
Between April and June 2024, an estimated 350 million Figure 1. International Tourist Arrivals
international tourists traveled globally. This is an 8 percent 180
increase from the same period in 2023, reaching 95 percent of 160
INTERNATIONAL TOURIST
ARRIVALS (MILLIONS)
2019 levels (Figure 1). This year-on-year (y/y) growth was slower 140
than Q1 2024, likely affected by ongoing economic and geopo- 120
litical tensions. In comparison, Q1 2024, still rebounding from 100
80
COVID-19, saw a 19 percent increase from the previous year.
60
40
Compared to the pre-pandemic period, in 2024 travelers are 20
spending about one extra day on vacation, particularly to 0
lower-cost destinations, creating opportunities to generate Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
higher local spending (Mastercard). Travelers are also priori- 2019 2023 2024
tizing experiences. Higher load factors than previous years (85 Source: UN Tourism Data Dashboard and Barometer, 2024.
percent in June) indicated higher demand for air travel (IATA). Note: 2024 numbers are approximated based on growth numbers from 2019.
Global occupancy rates in accommodation establishments of the year, revenue per available room (RevPAR)—an indicator
reached 70 percent in June 2024, the same registered levels of hotel performance—saw y/y growth in all regions of between
of last year (STR). Europe led performance in occupancy rates 2 to 10 percent (STR). This is likely the result of both increases
in Q2 2024, especially Northern Europe. In the first five months in provision of services costs and pent-up demand.
Tourism Watch - Quarterly Report: Q2 2024 1
Trade in global services surged in early 2024, fueled by strong Figure 2. Tourism vs. the Broader Economy
travel growth (Figure 2). The most complete recent trade data, (Services and Merchandise Trade)
from Q1 2024, indicated that trade in services reached levels
140
34 percent higher than pre-pandemic (2019) and 8 percent
120
higher y/y. Forty percent of this y/y change was attributed to
INDEX (2019=100)
100
growth in travel services, followed, to a lesser extent, by growth
in construction and goods-related services. Merchandise trade 80
showed slight quarterly growth, though trade levels remained 60
2 percent below 2023 y/y.1 40
20
0
Q1-20
Q2-20
Q3-20
Q4-20
Q1-21
Q2-21
Q3-21
Q4-21
Q1-22
Q2-22
Q3-22
Q4-22
Q1-23
Q2-23
Q3-23
Q4-23
Q1-24
Recovery in travel receipts was widespread in the first 6–7
months of 2024, with some countries exceeding pre-pandemic
revenue. For example, in Q2 2024, Albania saw an increase of TRAVEL SERVICES MERCHANDISE
129 percent from Q2 2019 levels, followed by Serbia (125.5
Source: World Trade Organization, 2024.
percent) and Pakistan (88 percent) (UN Tourism). Large Note: Figure includes 77 territories which accounted for 88 percent, 89 percent
source markets reported an increase in outbound travel and 86 percent of overall trade in goods, services and travel services respectively
in 2019.
expenditure through July 2024, for example, Germany and
the United States saw expenditures rise by 38 percent and
32 percent, respectively. Elevated prices in the travel industry
Figure 3. U.S. Consumer Price Index and U.S.
boosted demand for travel to countries like Japan and
Argentina, whose currency was weaker against the dollar
Travel Price Index
(Mastercard). 25%
20%
Y/Y CHANGE
15%
Year-on-year travel inflation—measured by the U.S. Travel
Price Index—stabilized around zero in June 2024 (Figure 10%
3). Airfare costs continued to decrease y/y in Q2 2024 at an 5%
average rate of 5.6 percent, while food away from home prices 0%
went up 4.1 percent. In both cases, growth rates slowed in
-5%
comparison to previous quarters, signaling a return to normal.
Apr-22
Jun-22
Aug-22
Oct-22
Dec-22
Feb-22
Apr-23
Jun-23
Aug-23
Oct-23
Dec-23
Feb-23
Apr-24
Jun-24
The perceived risk of inflationary pressures on the global
tourism industry has slightly declined compared to Q1 2024
(ETC). Broader inflation—measured by the U.S. Consumer Price CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (U.S.) TRAVEL PRICE INDEX (U.S.)
Index—remained stable at levels of about 3.2 percent and is Source: U.S. Travel Association and U.S. BLS, 2024.
expected to decline (World Bank).
Figure 4. Forward-Looking Tourism Indicators
Looking ahead, indicators point to a moderation of travel
100 60
toward the end of 2024. In June 2024, the Travel Sentiment
Score reached its lowest annual point since January (37 percent 90
50
TRAVEL SENTIMENT SCORE
compared to 2019 levels), following a sharp decline in May 80
(Figure 4). Additionally, the UN Confidence Index for May–June 70
INDEX (2019=100)
40
stood below the forecast level for this period (UN Tourism). 60
International air travel demand—as proxied by flight bookings— 50 30
is higher than the previous year but on a downward trend 40
20
since the peak of September 2023 (OAG). Due to climate 30
concerns, travelers are seeking more off-season trips, potentially 20
10
correcting for seasonality effects. Specifically, 8.5 percent 10
of Europeans are changing holiday months due to changing 0 0
climate (ETC). Overall, global inbound visitor arrivals are forecast
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
Jan-24
Apr-24
to grow 16.1 percent in 2024 and 13 percent in 2025 (ETC,
Tourism Economics).
FLIGHT BOOKINGS TRAVEL SENTIMENT SCORE
1
For additional information on global trade, please refer to the World Bank’s Source: UN Tourism Data Dashboard, OAG Traffic Analyzer and TCI
Trade Watch. Research, 2024.
Tourism Watch - Quarterly Report: Q2 2024 2
REGIONAL OVERVIEW
In Q2 2024, estimated aviation passenger arrivals—a proxy for in comparison to 2019 (18 percent). While the tourism
trends in tourism arrivals—increased by 14 percent y/y (Figure economies of countries affected by the current conflict have
5). All regions grew in passenger arrivals compared to the same been severely impacted, these effects have been localized and
period in 2023, however Eastern and Southern Africa (AFE) was almost 90 percent of MENA countries achieve y/y positive
the only region that achieved higher y/y growth than in Q1 2024, growth. The World Tourism Day 2024 theme of “Tourism and
reflecting the post-pandemic recovery deceleration. East Asia Peace” stressed the role of tourism in fostering peace through
and the Pacific (EAP) continues to have the fastest y/y growth, valuing and preserving cultural and natural heritage, and
though it remains well below pre-pandemic levels (13 percent). nurturing coexistence. UN Secretary General António Guterres
stressed the importance of tourism in promoting economic
Despite ongoing conflicts in parts of the region, Middle East interdependence, encouraging cooperation and peaceful
and North Africa (MENA) overall saw the highest growth development (UN Tourism).
Figure 5. Change in Estimated Aviation Passenger Arrivals Across Regions
Y/Y Q2 2024 vs. Q2 2019 and vs. Q2 2023 growth
40%
32%
30%
20% 18%
Y/Y CHANGE
15% 14%
12% 12% 13%
8% 9% 9%
10% 8% 6% 8%
4% 3% 2%
0%
-10% -7%
-13%
-20%
Eastern and Western and East Asia Europe and Latin America Middle East North South World
Southern Africa Central Africa and the Pacific Central Asia and the Caribbean and North Africa America Asia
Y/Y Q2 2024 VS. Q2 2019 Y/Y Q2 2024 VS. Q2 2023
Source: OAG Traffic Analyzer.
Turning to individual economies, in Q2 2024 y/y changes Globally, the destinations with the greatest y/y growth in
in estimated aviation passenger arrivals were positive for estimated aviation passenger arrivals were Turkmenistan
87.6 percent of reporting territories (198 out of 226) (Figure (92 percent growth), Niue (91 percent growth), and Anguilla
6). As with the previous quarter, conflicts were the main (90 percent growth). China lost momentum, falling to 7th
cause of annual declines in passenger arrivals. In Jordan, air position (60 percent growth compared to 227 percent in the
connectivity with source markets was reduced due to the previous quarter). The low- and middle-income destinations
cancellation or reduction of routes operated by low-cost with the greatest growth rates in each region were Zimbabwe
carriers (Jordan Ministry of Tourism and Antiquities). New for AFE (29 percent growth), Burkina Faso for Western and
Caledonia saw negative 14 percent growth in arrivals due to Central Africa (AFW) (28 percent growth), Solomon Islands for
conflict. Vanuatu’s slow performance was attributed to Air EAP (61 percent growth), Moldova for ECA (80 percent growth),
Vanuatu’s liquidation in May 2024, with these passenger Belize for Latin America and the Caribbean (LCR) (24 percent
seats not yet captured by competing airlines. In contrast, growth), Syrian Arab Republic for MENA (47 percent growth)
a number of destinations in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) and Bhutan for South Asia (SAR) (34 percent growth).2 Figure
show encouraging signs. The increased visitation to lesser- 6 represents y/y changes to estimated aviation passenger
known destinations like Montenegro and Albania (57 and arrivals in green (for growth) and red (for reductions). Figures
53 y/y growth, respectively) could help ease congestion in 7–13 feature these y/y changes by region only for low- and
Europe’s over-touristed areas. Available international inbound middle-income countries (X-axis), which are the focus of the
seats multiplied by 3.4 in Albania between Q2 2019 and Q2 World Bank Group.3
2024. Both Bulgaria and Romania became full Schengen 2
This excludes countries whose tourism contribution to GDP is not reported by the
members from March 31, 2024, lifting the air and sea internal World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC), except for Bhutan.
3
Countries are ordered by the importance of tourism to their economy (tourism’s
border controls in the area (EC), which is expected to facilitate contribution to GDP; Y-axis). Note that contribution to GDP has been updated to
inbound arrivals. 2023 with respect to previous issues, in which data was from 2019.
Tourism Watch - Quarterly Report: Q2 2024 3
Figure 6. Change in Estimated Aviation Passenger Arrivals, Q2 2024 vs Q2 2023
-46% 92%
No Data
Source: OAG Traffic Analyzer.
Note: Incomplete data for Monaco, North Korea, Ukraine, and West Bank and Gaza. This map was produced by the Cartography Unit of the World Bank Group. The
boundaries, colors, denominations, and any other information shown on this map do not imply, on the part of the World Bank Group, any judgment on the legal status
of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.
Figure 7. Eastern 20
Mauritius
and Southern
Africa
Y/Y Change in Estimated
Aviation Passenger Arrivals 15
Lesotho
TOURISM % GDP (2023)
(Q2 2023–2024)
Namibia
Botswana
1. Comoros
2. Tanzania 10 1 Madagascar
3. Ethiopia Sudan
2 Rwanda
4. Uganda South Africa
Kenya
5. Mozambique Zambia Zimbabwe
6. Eswatini 4 3
7. Malawi
5 76 5
Burundi
Source: OAG Traffic Analyzer; Angola
WTTC.
Congo, Dem. Rep.
0
−40 −20 0 20 40
PERCENT GROWTH IN ESTIMATED AVIATION PASSENGER ARRIVALS
Tourism Watch - Quarterly Report: Q2 2024 4
40
Figure 8. Western
and Central Africa Cabo Verde
Y/Y Change in Estimated
Aviation Passenger Arrivals 30
(Q2 2023–2024)
TOURISM % GDP (2023)
1. Senegal
2. Ghana 20
3. Togo
4. Benin Gambia, The
5. Sierra Leone São Tomé and Principe
6. Guinea
10 Mali
7. Congo, Rep.
1 Cameroon
Source: OAG Traffic Analyzer;
Niger 2 Côte d’Ivoire Ghana Central African
WTTC. 4 3 Nigeria 5 6 Sierra Leone Republic
7 Burkina Faso
0
−10 0 10 20 30
PERCENT GROWTH IN ESTIMATED AVIATION PASSENGER ARRIVALS
40
Figure 9. East Asia
and the Pacific Fiji
Y/Y Change in Estimated
Aviation Passenger Arrivals 30
(Q2 2023–2024)
TOURISM % GDP (2023)
1. Tonga
2. Vietnam 20
3. Vanuatu Philippines
4. Indonesia Cambodia
Source: OAG Traffic Analyzer;
Kiribati
WTTC. 10
Thailand
Malaysia China
1 2 Lao PDR Mongolia
3 4
Myanmar Papua New Guinea Solomon Islands
0 20 40 60
PERCENT GROWTH IN ESTIMATED AVIATION PASSENGER ARRIVALS
30
Figure 10. Europe Montenegro
and Central Asia
Y/Y Change in Estimated Albania
Aviation Passenger Arrivals
(Q2 2023–2024) Georgia
20
TOURISM % GDP (2023)
1. Serbia
2. Belarus
Source: OAG Traffic Analyzer; Armenia
WTTC. Kyrgyz Turkiye
10 Republic
Bulgaria Moldova
Tajikistan Azerbaijan
1 2 Uzbekistan
North Russian Federation
Macedonia Kazakhstan
0
−20 0 20 40 60 80
PERCENT GROWTH IN ESTIMATED AVIATION PASSENGER ARRIVALS
Tourism Watch - Quarterly Report: Q2 2024 5
Figure 11. Latin 80
America and the
Caribbean St. Lucia
Y/Y Change in Estimated
60
Aviation Passenger Arrivals
(Q2 2023–2024) Grenada
TOURISM % GDP (2023)
1. Dominican Republic
2. Mexico 40
3. Honduras
St. Vincent and the Grenadines
Jamaica
4. Nicaragua Belize
5. Argentina
6. Brazil 20
7. Bolivia Dominica
2 1 El Salvador
8. Guatemala
Haiti
34 5 Costa
9. Paraguay Cuba
786 Rica Peru
10. Ecuador
9
11 10 Colombia
0
11. Suriname −40 −20 0 20
PERCENT GROWTH IN ESTIMATED AVIATION PASSENGER ARRIVALS
Source: OAG Traffic Analyzer;
WTTC.
Jordan
Figure 12. Middle 20
East and North
Africa
Y/Y Change in Estimated 15
Aviation Passenger Arrivals
TOURISM % GDP (2023)
(Q2 2023–2024) Tunisia
Morocco
Source: OAG Traffic Analyzer;
WTTC. 10
Egypt, Arab Rep. Syrian Arab Republic
Lebanon
Algeria Iraq
5
Iran, Islamic Rep.
Libya
0
0 10 20 30 40 50
PERCENT GROWTH IN ESTIMATED AVIATION PASSENGER ARRIVALS
Figure 13. South 60 Maldives
Asia
Y/Y Change in Estimated
Aviation Passenger Arrivals
(Q2 2023–2024)
40
TOURISM % GDP (2023)
Source: OAG Traffic Analyzer;
WTTC; Tourism Council of
Bhutan.
20
Bhutan
India Sri Lanka
Nepal
Pakistan
Bangladesh
0 10 20 30 40
PERCENT GROWTH IN ESTIMATED AVIATION PASSENGER ARRIVALS
Tourism Watch - Quarterly Report: Q2 2024 6
SPECIAL INSERT
Nature-Based Tourism for Livelihoods and Biodiversity in Africa
Sustainable nature-based tourism can help create new job tourism economy, directly contributing US$29.3 billion and
opportunities and protect at-risk environmental assets. employing 3.6 million people. It is also growing at an annual
The Africa continent has the youngest population of any rate of about 3 percent (Global Data; UN Tourism 2023). At
major region and faces high youth unemployment, with over the same time, tourism has the potential to fund conserva-
25 percent not in employment, formal education or training (ILO tion efforts and create jobs for women and youth (UN Tourism
2023). Women face significant employment challenges, with 2019; WTO 2019; WTTC 2023), particularly in rural areas
over 60 percent of working women remaining in agriculture, that are facing increased out-migration and environmental
often engaged in unpaid or poorly remunerated labor (ILO 2016). degradation.
Africa has experienced a 65 percent decline in biodiversity since
1970 (WWF 2023), and suffers from the increasing impacts of The World Bank Group has a comprehensive set of tools to
climate change. Tourism brings its share of environmental risks, support the sustainable development of nature-based tourism
but if well managed can contribute to the revenues needed to and enable private sector development and community engage-
protect critical environmental assets. ment. The World Bank is supporting sustainable nature-based
tourism and ecotourism4 in Africa through a three-pronged
Africa is particularly well-suited for nature-based tourism framework to (i) protect the natural assets, (ii) grow and diver-
given its abundant natural assets, world-renowned wildlife, sify the business, sustainably, and (iii) share the benefits with
and vibrant communities that reside in or near protected local communities. Table 1 presents actions and resources for
areas. Wildlife tourism makes up 36.3 percent of Africa’s each pillar.
Table 1. Nature-Based Tourism Development Resources5
PROTECT THE NATURAL ASSET GROW AND DIVERSIFY SHARE THE BENEFITS
• Formalize protected areas THE BUSINESS, SUSTAINABLY • Understand and ensure demand for
• Increase public investment in • Select the appropriate protected areas for community tourism
protected area management nature-based tourism development • Formalize benefit sharing
• Build capacity of protected area • Implement standards and certifications arrangements for sustainable
managers for sustainable tourism livelihoods
• Regularly assess the effects of • Diversify tourism offerings and build • Strengthen income multipliers and
visitor spending private sector capacity address financing of community
• Develop concession policies in protected tourism ventures
areas and collaborative management • Mitigate and compensate for
partnerships human–wildlife conflict
Operationalizing these approaches involves global, regional, of nature-based tourism through strategies, regulations,
and country-specific initiatives. Globally, the World Bank’s attractions, and trainings.
Global Challenge Program on Forests for Development, Climate
and Biodiversity (GCP-Forests) is expected to support oper- Monitoring impacts and improving data on climate is critical
ations by setting a global “wholesale” framework on forests, to make the case for tourism as a motivator of environmental
which would benefit the poor through increased green/blue protection. The Protected Area Tourism Local Economy-Wide
jobs, ecotourism, and sustainable forest-dependent live- Impact Evaluation “Lite” tool (known as LEWIE-LITE) measures
lihoods. In West Africa, the institution has supported the tourism’s impacts on local economies surrounding protected
development of a private sector-led West Africa Ecotourism areas. The World Bank’s Country Climate and Development
Network (WAEN) to organize sector stakeholders and grow the Reports in Ethiopia and Rwanda highlight nature-based tourism
region’s ecotourism market. WAEN has developed ecotourism as key for economic diversification, biodiversity conservation,
best practices for the public sector, firms, and attractions, and climate resilience.
and launched an online learning series to enhance skills. In
Guinea-Bissau, São Tomé and Príncipe, and Cabo Verde, World
4
Ecotourism is defined as “responsible travel to natural areas that conserves the environment,
sustains the well-being of the local people, and involves interpretation and education” (TIES 2015).
Bank loans and grants are supporting the responsible growth 5
A complete repository of Nature-Based Tourism Tools and Resources is found here.
Tourism Watch - Quarterly Report: Q2 2024 7
METHODOLOGICAL NOTES
INDEX CONSTRUCTION polarity in web social conversations concerning the travel and
tourist destinations (percent of positive comments – percent
Estimated Aviation Passenger Arrivals Index: Data on of negative comments).
estimated international passenger arrivals landing in a given
geography, regardless of flight length, for a given month or GLOSSARY
quarter. OAG estimations are based on real bookings data
made by travel agencies through global distribution systems Occupancy Rate: Indicator of hotel performance, equal to the
(GDS). These estimates are reportedly based on a series of number of hotel rooms sold/room supply.
proprietary algorithms that use various external datasets and
historical ratios between total passengers and realized GDS Revenue per available room (RevPAR): Measure of hotel perfor-
bookings. These arrivals data are rebased as a percentage of mance that shows the revenue generated per room regard-
estimated aviation passenger arrivals in the same month or less of if rooms are occupied or not. RevPAR is calculated by
quarter of 2019 or 2023, then multiplied by 100. dividing total room revenue by total rooms available.
Travel Price Index: The Travel Price Index (TPI) measures Regional Acronyms: AFE (Eastern and Southern Africa), AFW
the cost of travel away from home in the United States. It is (Western and Central Africa), EAP (East Asia and Pacific), ECA
based on the U.S. Department of Labor price data collected (Europe and Central Asia), LCR (Latin America and the Carib-
for the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI). The TPI is released bean), MNA (Middle East and North Africa), SAR (South Asia).
monthly and is directly comparable to the CPI.
Travel Receipts vs. Export Revenues from Tourism: Both
Travel Sentiment Index: Data comes from TCI Research. The indicators cover expenditures incurred by non-resident visitors
index leverages a social media web crawler that monitors global during visits to an economy, which include any prepayment
web social conversations shared by the media, consumers, made for those goods and services. The key difference is that
companies, citizens, brands, and officials. Data are reported travel export revenues include payments to national carriers
as Net Sentiment Scores measuring the balance of sentiment for international transport while travel receipts excludes them.
For further information, The Tourism Watch quarterly bulletin series is prepared by the Trade, Investment and
Competitiveness (TIC) Markets, Competition and Technology Tourism group of the
please contact the team at Finance, Competitiveness and Innovation (FCI) Global Practice. The bulletin has been
tourism@worldbank.org prepared by a team led by Alex Pio, Alba Suris, and Paula Bellas, with contributions
or visit the Tourism and from Vincent Palmade, Louise Twining-Ward, Shaun Mann, Denisse Pierola,
Jessie F. McComb, Jessica Rose Wilson, Wendy Li, and Vanessa Satur, under the
Competitiveness website. guidance of Mario Guadamillas. Design by Sharon Fisher.
Tourism Watch - Quarterly Report: Q2 2024 8