Finance & PSD Impact SEPTEMBER 2022
The Lessons from DECFP Impact Evaluations ISSUE 60
Three Interventions to Reduce Irregular Migration and Promote Alternatives:
An Experiment in The Gambia
Tijan Bah, Catia Batista, Flore Gubert and David McKenzie
Irregular migration from Africa to Europe Interventions
attracts substantial policy attention. Although We randomly assigned settlements into four
international migration can enable people different groups, as follows:
from developing countries to dramatically • Information and Deterrence Treatment:
increase their incomes, the absence of legal individuals in these settlements were shown
channels and the chance of higher incomes a video documentary about the risks involved
can induce people to take part in risky in migrating irregularly to Europe. This was
journeys that can involve a low chance of produced with an NGO called Youth Against
success, and the potential for human rights Irregular Migration, formed by Gambian
abuses and loss of life. youth who had attempted the migration
The most common policy responses journey. Interviews describing their
have been efforts to deter this form of experiences were accompanied by
migration through increased enforcement, animations of the statistics of the risks
and through information campaigns that involved.
emphasize the dangers associated with • Information and Senegal Treatment: this
irregular migration. However, evidence on treatment group was shown the same
the effectiveness of such campaigns is information video, but then also given
limited, and such policies may not be enough information and assistance about a safer visa-
if they do not offer alternative possibilities free regional migration alternative: going to
for improving livelihoods. We designed an work in neighboring Senegal. This included a
experiment in The Gambia to test different video with interviews with Gambians
approaches. working there, information on logistics, and
a labeled cash transfer of 20 euros to pay for
Experimental Setting the cost of a bus to Dakar.
The Gambia had the highest per capita • Information and Vocational Training:
incidence of irregular migration to Europe this treatment group were shown the same
among all African countries in 2017. This information video as the first treatment, but
migration typically takes place along what is then also given the opportunity to enroll in a
termed “the backway”, which involves an free vocational training program that could
overland journey through West Africa, across help provide the skills needed for non-rural
the Sahara Desert, and into Libya or jobs elsewhere in The Gambia, providing a
Morocco, from which youth attempt to catch viable local option to irregular migration.
boats across the Mediterranean Sea to Italy • Control Group: youth in these settlements
and other European destinations. were shown a health video as a placebo.
In March/April 2019, we selected 391
settlements (villages) in high-migration rural Results
areas of the Eastern part of the country and We conducted a follow-up survey between
did a door-to-door listing to obtain a sample September and November 2020,
of 3,641 young males aged 18-30. approximately 18 months after the
Do you have a project you want evaluated? DECRG-FP researchers are always looking for opportunities to work
with colleagues in the Bank and IFC. If you would like to ask our experts for advice or to collaborate on an
evaluation, contact us care of the Impact editor, David McKenzie (dmckenzie@worldbank.org)
information intervention, and 6 months after followed by the COVID-19 pandemic
the COVID-19 pandemic had closed borders. making it harder to migrate.
Through a combination of face-to-face
(76%), phone (13%), and proxy interviews Policy Implications
(11%) we were able to locate all but 1 person. 1. Providing information about the risks of
irregular migration is unlikely to be enough
• Knowledge about backway migration and by itself. The informational video improved
Senegal improved right after showing the knowledge, but had no significant impact on
videos, with lasting impacts 18 months later. intentions to migrate to Europe, nor on
• Intentions to migrate to Europe remain regional or internal migration. This is
high, and offering alternatives changed these consistent with the somewhat limited
intentions 18 months later. 28% of the effectiveness of information campaigns in
control group said they will surely move in combatting irregular migration in other
the next five years and 52% said they are sure settings, and suggests the need to consider
or likely to migrate. The vocational training additional interventions.
treatment lowered intention to migrate to 2. Offering alternative pathways to
Europe by 5-7 percentage points. The improving livelihoods had larger impacts on
Senegal treatment increased intentions to migration intentions and behavior. This was
migrate to Senegal by 3 to 8 percentage despite our Senegal and vocational training
points. treatments having limited take-up, suggesting
• Offering alternatives increased longer- they also increased the salience of other
term migration to Senegal, offset by a options.
reduction in internal migration. The Senegal 3. Targeting migration-related policies is
and vocational training interventions crucial for effectiveness. While we targeted
increased the likelihood of residing young males in high migration areas, our
somewhere in Senegal at the time of the findings illustrate how geographic and
follow-up survey by, respectively, 2.2 and demographic targeting alone are unlikely to
2.6 percentage points, which more than be enough, and further targeting at the
doubled the rate in the control group. individual level is needed to focus programs
Temporary internal migration to the capital on those closest to the margin of taking a
city of Banjul was reduced in these groups. risky migration journey.
• Irregular migration to Europe plummeted 4. The desire to attempt this risky journey is
during our intervention period, leaving no still very strong, despite the limited migration
scope for any treatment impact on this rates during our study period. Moreover, the
outcome. Only 1.1% of control individuals journey may be becoming even riskier as
made a backway migration attempt, and only youth now take lengthier sea journeys – so
0.6% made it to Europe during the 18-month the need to test policies to offer better
period. This low migration rate is a alternatives remains an ongoing policy
combination of a change in government in imperative.
The Gambia and in European asylum policy,
For further reading see: Bah, Tijan, Catia Batista, Flore Gubert and David McKenzie. “Can Information
and Alternatives to Irregular Migration Reduce “Backway” Migration from The Gambia?” World Bank
Policy Research Working Paper no. 10146, August 2022.
Recent impact notes are available on our website: https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/brief/finance-
and-private-sector-impact-evaluation-policy-notes