Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No: ICR00006052 IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION AND RESULTS REPORT ON A GRANT IN THE AMOUNT OF US$10.65 MILLION TO THE Republic of Sudan FOR THE Sudan Education COVID-19 Response Project December 21, 2022 Education Global Practice Eastern And Southern Africa Region CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (Exchange Rate Effective September 1, 2022) Currency Unit = SDG 567 = US$1 FISCAL YEAR January 1 – December 31 Regional Vice President: Victoria Kwakwa Country Director: Ousmane Dione Regional Director: Amit Dar Practice Manager: Safaa El Tayeb El-Kogali Task Team Leaders: Omer Nasir Elseed, Lianqin Wang ICR Main Contributor: Lucia Jose Nhampossa, Dmitry Chugunov ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ASC Annual School Census BEESP Basic Education Emergency Support Program BERP Basic Education Recovery Project BESP Sudan Basic Education Support Project COVID-19 Coronavirus Disease 2019 ESSP Education Sector Strategy Plan FM Financial Management GDP Gross Domestic Product GER Gross Enrollment Ratio GOS Government of Sudan GPE Global Partnership for Education HCI Human Capital Index ICR Implementation Completion and Results Report IFR Interim Unaudited Financial Report IRI Intermediate Results Indicator ISP Intermediary Support Provider ISR Implementation Status and Results Reports LEG Local Education Group M&E Monitoring and Evaluation NCCER National Center for Curriculum and Educational Research NGO Nongovernmental Organization OOSC Out-of-School Children PCU Program Coordination Unit PDO Project Development Objective PTA Parent-Teacher Association SSA Sub-Saharan Africa SSC Sudan School Certificate TOT Training of Trainers UNICEF United Nations Children’s Fund WASH Water, Sanitation and Hygiene TABLE OF CONTENTS DATA SHEET ................................................................................................................................1 I. PROJECT CONTEXT AND DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES .........................................................4 A. CONTEXT AT APPRAISAL ............................................................................................................. 4 B. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING IMPLEMENTATION................................................................. 10 II. OUTCOME .........................................................................................................................10 A. RELEVANCE OF PDOs ................................................................................................................ 10 B. ACHIEVEMENT OF PDOs (EFFICACY) .......................................................................................... 11 C. EFFICIENCY ................................................................................................................................ 16 D. JUSTIFICATION OF OVERALL OUTCOME RATING....................................................................... 17 E. OTHER OUTCOMES AND IMPACTS (IF ANY)............................................................................... 17 III. KEY FACTORS THAT AFFECTED IMPLEMENTATION AND OUTCOME ..................................18 A. KEY FACTORS DURING PREPARATION....................................................................................... 18 B. KEY FACTORS DURING IMPLEMENTATION ................................................................................ 19 IV. BANK PERFORMANCE, COMPLIANCE ISSUES, AND RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME ...20 A. QUALITY OF MONITORING AND EVALUATION (M&E) .............................................................. 20 V. LESSONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS .................................................................................24 ANNEX 1. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND KEY OUTPUTS ..............................................................27 ANNEX 2. BANK LENDING AND IMPLEMENTATION SUPPORT/SUPERVISION...........................33 ANNEX 3. PROJECT COST BY COMPONENT ...............................................................................35 ANNEX 4. EFFICIENCY ANALYSIS ...............................................................................................36 ANNEX 5. BORROWER, CO-FINANCIER AND OTHER PARTNER/STAKEHOLDER COMMENTS ....41 The World Bank Sudan Education COVID-19 Response (P174220) DATA SHEET BASIC INFORMATION Product Information Project ID Project Name P174220 Sudan Education COVID-19 Response Country Financing Instrument Sudan Investment Project Financing Original EA Category Revised EA Category Organizations Borrower Implementing Agency The Republic of the Sudan Ministry of Education Project Development Objective (PDO) Original PDO To support learning continuity at the basic education level during the COVID-19 pandemic and school system shutdown and safe transition back to school during recovery. Page 1 of 41 The World Bank Sudan Education COVID-19 Response (P174220) FINANCING Original Amount (US$) Revised Amount (US$) Actual Disbursed (US$) World Bank Financing 10,650,000 10,650,000 4,703,520 TF-B3339 Total 10,650,000 10,650,000 4,703,520 Non-World Bank Financing 0 0 0 Total 0 0 0 Total Project Cost 10,650,000 10,650,000 4,703,520 KEY DATES Approval Effectiveness MTR Review Original Closing Actual Closing 04-Aug-2020 01-Oct-2020 31-Dec-2021 31-Dec-2021 RESTRUCTURING AND/OR ADDITIONAL FINANCING Date(s) Amount Disbursed (US$M) Key Revisions KEY RATINGS Outcome Bank Performance M&E Quality Satisfactory Satisfactory High RATINGS OF PROJECT PERFORMANCE IN ISRs Actual No. Date ISR Archived DO Rating IP Rating Disbursements (US$M) 01 06-Nov-2020 Satisfactory Satisfactory 0 02 24-May-2021 Satisfactory Satisfactory 3.62 Page 2 of 41 The World Bank Sudan Education COVID-19 Response (P174220) SECTORS AND THEMES Sectors Major Sector/Sector (%) Education 100 Public Administration - Education 4 Other Education 96 Themes Major Theme/ Theme (Level 2)/ Theme (Level 3) (%) Human Development and Gender 100 Gender 46 Disease Control 63 Pandemic Response 41 Education 100 Access to Education 26 Student Assessment 48 Standards, Curriculum and Textbooks 16 Education Facilities 59 ADM STAFF Role At Approval At ICR Regional Vice President: Hafez M. H. Ghanem Victoria Kwakwa Country Director: Ousmane Dione Ousmane Dione Director: Amit Dar Amit Dar Practice Manager: Safaa El Tayeb El-Kogali Safaa El Tayeb El-Kogali Omer Nasir Elseed, Lianqin Task Team Leader(s): Omer Nasir Elseed, Thanh Thi Mai Wang ICR Contributing Author: Lucia Jose Nhampossa Page 3 of 41 The World Bank Sudan Education COVID-19 Response (P174220) I. PROJECT CONTEXT AND DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES A. CONTEXT AT APPRAISAL Country Context 1. Sudan was mired in multiple crises during the preparation and implementation of the project. Like the rest of the world, the country had been experiencing the unprecedented social and economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic at the time of project appraisal. The economic impact of COVID-19 was substantial and included the increased price of basic foods, rising unemployment, and falling exports. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), real gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by 3.6 percent in 2020. Decelerating activity translated into lower levels of tax and other government revenue collection. The combined effect on government revenues was significant. For Africa, the COVID-19 pandemic caused a median 15.0 percent drop in monthly tax revenues in mid-2020 relative to the year before (Aslam et al. 2022). 2. The political context faced by the country posed additional challenges. Starting in late 2018, Sudan was hit by a political and economic crisis that led to widespread protests and the toppling of a 30-year regime in April 2019. A new government was formed in September 2019 to lead a transition phase of three years, paving the way to national elections. However, the transitional government faced a deep economic crisis and political challenges that could jeopardize its plans for transition to civilian rule. Macroeconomic instability, including high inflation, foreign exchange shortage, and lack of liquidity, hampered the economy. There were shortages in bread, fuel, electricity, and currency. The annual inflation rate increased from 163 percent in 2020 to 359 percent in 2021, according to the IMF. The exchange rate for the Sudanese pound relative to the US dollar depreciated by 300 percent between January 2019 and June 2020, with a huge gap between the formal and parallel market rates. 3. Recurrent natural disasters added further complexity. In addition to the severe effect of the pandemic, the education system in Sudan was impacted by widespread floods in August–September 2020. After the schools closed in March 2020, they were expected to reopen in September 2020, but floods in Sudan (as well as concerns about COVID-19) delayed the school reopening. The Nile River rose to its highest levels in over 100 years and resulted in extensive destruction of infrastructure, crops, and livestock, directly affecting 650,000 people, and indirectly affecting 1.7 million people. In addition, according to United Nations International Children's Fund (UNICEF), about 443 schools were either destroyed or damaged (UNICEF 2020). Sector Context 4. Basic and secondary education. At the time of project appraisal, Sudan had seen a decade’s worth of significant improvements in basic education. Between 2008/09 and 2017/18, the number of schools (public and private) increased by 2,800, allowing one million more children to access education. The Gross Enrollment Ratio (GER) in basic education, however, had been stagnant at around 70.0 percent over the past decade, meaning the system was expanding only at the rate of the population growth of about 2.5 percent per annum. The GER in secondary education had been low at 46.6 percent, with a slightly higher rate in favor of girls (47.0 percent). 5. Challenges in the basic education sector. Despite the increased student enrollments, the education sector continued to suffer from multiple challenges. Access to education was still limited with huge disparities between boys and girls, rich and poor, and urban and rural. Around 6 percent of boys and 11 percent of girls had no access to schooling (Sudan FMOE 2019). Student retention in rural areas was low, with only 40 percent of grade 1 students reaching the end of basic education cycle (compared to 69 percent of students in urban settings). The high number of out-of-school children (OOSC) was striking. Among approximately 3 million OOSC in the age range of 6 to 16 years old (25 percent of that age cohort), half of them never attended school. For those in school, Page 4 of 41 The World Bank Sudan Education COVID-19 Response (P174220) learning poverty was high, with 39 percent of grade 3 students 1 (usually 10-year-olds) unable to read a single word in their native language. COVID-19 Impact on Education 6. Disruptions to schooling caused significant learning losses. In March 2020, schools were closed due to COVID- 19 and did not reopen until February 2021. This significantly disrupted children's access to education and completely halted learning for many. Only 9 percent of the households with school-age children that attended school before the COVID-19 outbreak engaged in some learning activities during the pandemic.2 This resulted in significant learning losses for children, especially the most vulnerable. When schools reopened after almost a year of closure, students were promoted automatically and not forced to repeat grades. According to the results of a simulation exercise using a World Bank model (Azevedo et al. 2020), a 10-month school closure is likely to result in a learning loss of up to 1.0 learning-adjusted years of schooling and increased dropouts, particularly among girls and children from low-income families. In addition, the simulation showed that the pause in school feeding programs is likely to lead to higher rates of malnutrition among children. These negative impacts are higher for children from disadvantaged and vulnerable backgrounds, exacerbating economic inequality and the intergenerational transmission of poverty. 7. National budget for education. The budgetary allocations to education were insufficient to address backlogs and achieve Sustainable Development Goal 4 on quality education in the short and medium term. The education sector had been grossly underfinanced during the last decade.3 The education budget stood at 9 percent of public spending in 2018, much lower than the recommended 15 percent to 20 percent.4 As a share of GDP, spending on education was halved from 2 percent in 2009 to 1 percent in 2018, which was the lowest in Sub-Saharan Africa (Sudan FMOE 2019). 8. Education costs. Families have historically contributed greatly to education costs in Sudan, including goods and services, capital costs, salaries to volunteer teachers, and food provision to teachers and students. In the 2016/17 school year, parents added a total of SDG 496 million or a 16 percent top up to the SDG 2.6 trillion of government spending. The worsening economic situation was expected to affect the ability of families to pay going forward, so there was an urgent need to provide additional financial support to schools in the form of school grants. Rationale for World Bank support and Role of Partners 9. At the time of project preparation (April–August 2020), the World Bank had been engaged in the education sector in Sudan for more than two decades and had substantial experience of dealing with emergency contexts. The World Bank was well placed to serve as the Grant Agent for this emergency Global Partnership for Education (GPE)-financed project because it was already supervising another emergency grant — Basic Education Emergency Support Project (BEESP, P172812), and had previously successfully supervised other GPE grants, building a relationship of trust with the client and partners as well as an infrastructure which this emergency project was able to build on. The project was to follow up on the Basic Education Recovery Project (BERP, 1 This information is from the Sudan National Learning Assessment 2018 report. 2 This reflects information as of November 2020. For more details, see World Bank COVID-19 High Frequency Phone Survey of Households (2020), Round 4. 3 Public spending on education as a share of total public expenditure was also low prior to secession of South Sudan in 2011, ranging between 7 percent and 12 percent. 4 These data are based on an international benchmark. See full Incheon Declaration at http://en.unesco.org/world-education-forum- 2015/incheon-declaration. Page 5 of 41 The World Bank Sudan Education COVID-19 Response (P174220) P128644) and the BEESP. This gave the client confidence in the World Bank's capabilities to prepare the operation and incorporate it into the portfolio. It also allowed for seamless complementarity with other ongoing projects. 10. The project benefited from the coordination and cooperation with other partners working in education in Sudan. UNICEF has been leading the dialogue with the government on the overall sector COVID-19 response strategy. The British Council has developed audio materials with accompanying worksheets in English-language teaching for teachers, and these materials are available for broadcasting and use beyond the project life. Theory of Change (Results Chain) 11. Project objective. The project aimed to support learning continuity at the basic education level during the COVID- 19 pandemic and school system shutdown and safe transition back to school during recovery. The main interventions selected to achieve this objective were as follows: (a) To support learning continuity. Developing and broadcasting radio programs and newspaper columns in mathematics and Arabic, training teachers in using distance learning methods and grading student assignments and providing radios to the lowest-income families. (b) To support safe transition back to school. Conducting a rapid assessment of learning gaps to develop mitigating measures when schools resume, providing water storage facilities to the most deprived schools, supporting communication/connectivity campaigns to ensure sustained enrollment of girls and vulnerable children, and providing COVID-19 grants to improve handwashing conditions and hygiene. 12. Project results chain. Figure 1 shows the project's results chain of the project development objective (PDO). It highlights the key inputs and activities used to support learning continuity (the first part of the PDO), such as the development of TV and radio lessons, the training of teachers, headmasters, and other education stakeholders on distance learning approaches to ensure continuity of learning during school closures. It also shows the activities used to support safe transition back to school (the second part of the PDO), such as the provision of water tanks and rapid learning assessment. The provision of information on the status of the learning outcomes, supporting learning recovery strategies and a more resilient education system to shocks, which was a key result of the project, is also shown. Finally, as reflected in figure 1, the project contributes to and goes above and beyond the PDO in its higher-level outcome to provide improved and equitable access to education. Page 6 of 41 The World Bank Sudan Education COVID-19 Response (P174220) Figure 1. Results chain: Sudan Education COVID-19 Response Project PDO: To support learning continuity at the basic education level during the COVID-19 pandemic and school system shutdown and safe transition back to school during recovery. HIGHER- PDO INPUTS ACTIVITIES PDO-LEVEL OUTCOMES LEVEL OUTCOMES OUTCOMES – GPE grant Developing and broadcasting radio programs and Supported distance learning programs – Government newspaper columns in mathematics and Arabic during the system shutdown – Radio programs and newspaper columns in – Radio programs and newspaper Supporting learning continuity of Sudan’s financial mathematics and Arabic developed and columns in mathematics and Arabic Learning contribution broadcasted on national channels. available to population continuity for – Donors, Enhanced teacher and community students and Training teachers in using distance learning stakeholders, engagement to facilitate learning teachers methods and grading student assignments community continuity during the – Project beneficiaries trained in using distance members – Project beneficiaries with enhanced COVID-19 learning methods and grading student engagement to facilitate learning pandemic and assignments. Improved continuity readiness for schools to and Providing radios to the lowest-income families Improved access to remote learning – Project beneficiaries received radios to – Project beneficiaries with better resume equitable participate in remote learning. access to remote learning – Sustained access to learning education Conducting a rapid assessment of learning needs Identified learning gaps and provided through Supporting safe transition when schools resume information about remedial remote – A rapid assessment of learning needs conducted programming and learning methods and back to school on a representative sample of governmental opportunities sustained schools. – Policy to address learning gaps student Improved school water storage enrollment in Providing water storage facilities to the most schools facilities to enhance and promote deprived schools hygiene and sanitation – Schools without access to clean water received – Schools with new water tanks for tanks to store water. water storage Page 7 of 41 The World Bank Sudan Education COVID-19 Response (P174220) Project Development Objectives (PDOs) 13. The PDO aimed to support learning continuity at the basic education level during the COVID-19 pandemic and school system shutdown and safe transition back to school during recovery. 14. The PDO statement remained the same throughout the project life cycle and was consistent in the financing agreement (FA) and project appraisal document (PAD). Key Expected Outcomes and Outcome Indicators 15. Expected outcomes. Given the emergency context during which the project was designed, the PDO focused on the most fundamental outputs and intermediate outcomes necessary to mitigate learning losses as well as to lay the groundwork for future achievement of higher-level outcomes of enhanced system capacity to deliver learning and improved and equitable access. TV and radio programs were planned to help children continue learning during school closures. Provision of water tanks and awareness campaigns were designed to help promote hygiene and COVID-19 safety protocols at the school level. Provision of radios to low-income families were planned to increase participation of students in remote learning. School grants aimed to help schools, especially the most disadvantaged, establish participatory management structures, such as school committees, at the school level. Before the project, such structures existed only at the local level, and not all schools were covered. After receiving initial training under the BEESP, school committees were able to identify the goods and services most needed for their schools during the COVID-19 period and to supervise the procurement and delivery of those items, as well as to report back to the state and federal government on the grant utilization. 16. The project had four PDO indicators and seven intermediate results indicators (IRIs) to assess progress toward the achievement of the PDO. PDO-level indicators: Intermediate Results Indicators: • PDO 1 “Basic school students supported with • IRI 1 “Number of learning continuity programs broadcasted daily distance learning programs (Percentage)” through radio developed (Number)” • PDO 2 “Basic school students supported with • IRI 2 “Basic school students accessing awareness campaign distance learning programs (Number)” (Percentage)” • PDO 3 “Students previously enrolled in • IRI 3 “Number of poor families receiving radios (Number)” project-supported schools who return to • IRI 4 “Number of teachers trained (Number)” school once the school system is reopened • IRI 5 “Supporting safe transition back to schools Rapid Learning (Percentage)” Assessment conducted (Yes/No)” • PDO 4 “Students previously enrolled in • IRI 6 “Disadvantaged schools receiving water tanks (Number)” project support schools return (Number)” IRI 7 “Grant-supported schools reopened (Number)” Components 17. The project design was guided by the following principles: (a) responding urgently to support engagement between students and teachers during the COVID-19 pandemic and school system shutdown; (b) using the most common media of communication for distance learning such as radio, TV, newspapers for students; (c) facilitating engagement of students through assignments that will be graded by teachers; and (d) mobilizing teachers to engage in interacting with students in distance education during social distancing, assessing students' assignments and reporting the results. Component 1: Supporting learning continuity at the basic education level during the COVID-19 pandemic and school system shutdown (US$6.93 million) Page 8 of 41 The World Bank Sudan Education COVID-19 Response (P174220) 18. Subcomponent 1.1: Production and dissemination of educational materials on television and radio broadcasts and in newspaper columns (US$1.40 million) was designed to support (a) curation and adaptation of distance learning programs in mathematics and Arabic, including relevant materials available from other Arabic speaking countries, to be broadcasted through TV and radio with assignments for students to engage in; (b) development of Arabic and mathematics columns to be disseminated through newspapers; and (c) development of guides for teachers to grade and record the results of students' assignments. Students with special needs were likely to face particular challenges from loss of schooling as a result of COVID-19. This subcomponent was designed to support the development and delivery of specialized distance learning materials for these students, including children with hearing impairment, and other disadvantaged students, such as girls and students from the lowest-income households. 19. Subcomponent 1.2: Engagement of students and teachers in learning continuity programs (US$4.33 million) was designed to develop assignments in mathematics and Arabic to engage students in the learning process through radio and TV broadcasting. In addition, it was planned to distribute booklets with assignments linked to the TV and radio lessons (including both learning materials and homework) to all students. The booklets were to be part of the remote learning solutions so that students could use the booklets to study during school closures as well as to use them at other times as additional learning resources. In addition to the booklet provision to students, this subcomponent aimed to support training of community teachers in collecting assignments and grading them. 20. Subcomponent 1.3: Provision of radios to the poorest families (US$1.20 million) aimed to provide radios and solar power banks to target households. The project was designed to target communities with schools without electricity and students with the lowest learning outcomes (bottom 20 percent). School-level data obtained from the Annual School Census (ASC) in 2015–2019 with support from the BERP were used for the targeting of these project beneficiaries. It was expected that approximately 100,000 low-income households would receive the radios. Component 2: Supporting safe transition back to school during recovery (US$3.27 million) 21. Subcomponent 2.1: Ensuring children’s return to school (US$1.65 million) was designed to support communication/connectivity campaigns to ensure sustained enrollment and protect girls and vulnerable children. Beyond filling the gap in learning, the project also sought to protect vulnerable children — and especially girls — as they were likely to spend months out of school and at heightened risk of early marriage. Girls were more likely to end up doing household chores and were at risk of not returning to school. The project was designed to utilize extensive communication at the school-level to raise parents’ and community awareness in child protection, particularly of girls. Project interventions to help protect adolescent girls from sexual abuse, violence, and pregnancy, included using radio and other technologies to promote safeguarding and health messages, supplemented by human interaction with their teachers or other community leaders. 22. Subcomponent 2.2: Rapid assessment of learning when schools resume (US$0.80 million) was designed to support schools in conducting a rapid assessment of student needs when schools resumed. The closure of schools, even with mitigation measures, was expected to result in slower learning progress. The lowest-income students were likely to fall further behind their higher-income peers. It was planned that when schools reopened, a rapid assessment of students would help identify learning gaps and inform remedial programming and learning opportunities so that all students would quickly catch up to grade level. 23. Subcomponent 2.3: Provision of water tanks to schools with no access to clean water (US$0.82 million) was designed to provide water storage tanks (500 liters) for schools lacking water storage facilities to help in handwashing and hygiene once the schools reopened. According to the ASC, before the project, there were at Page 9 of 41 The World Bank Sudan Education COVID-19 Response (P174220) least 1,760 public schools without water supply including 223 schools for girls (2018/19). The project would allow schools to purchase water to support handwashing and other water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) needs to reduce the risk of COVID-19 resurgence. In addition, school grants which were provided under another GPE- funded operation — Sudan Education Emergency Support Project (P172812) — could be used to buy soap and water. Component 3: Program coordination and management (US$0.45 million) 24. Component 3 was designed to support the Federal Ministry of Education (FMOE) in overall program coordination and monitoring and evaluation (M&E). The Program Coordination Unit (PCU) was to cover functions such as planning, procurement, financial management, environmental and social risk management, and M&E. B. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING IMPLEMENTATION 25. Just before closing, the project was severely affected by the military takeover in Sudan which started October 25, 2021, when the military dissolved the civilian government, arrested political leaders, and declared a state of emergency. On October 27, 2021, the World Bank's internal directive, OP7.30 Dealings with De Facto Governments, was triggered. As a result, most country program activities were put on hold, and disbursements for operations paused, including activities under the Sudan Education COVID-19 Response Project. The pause in disbursements did not allow the project to complete all activities before closing on December 31, 2021. The project did not have sufficient time to distribute radios to children from the most underserved families. A planned project restructuring to extend the closing date for six months to complete activities and to increase the scope of ongoing interventions using savings could not be processed. In addition, the second installment of the COVID- 19 school grants, which was ready to take place in November 2021, could not be done due to the pause in disbursements under the OP7.30 directive. A retroactive restructuring was planned in May 2022, but it never took place due to uncertainty in the duration of the takeover. Thus, the project was closed. II. OUTCOME A. RELEVANCE OF PDOs Assessment of Relevance of PDOs and Rating 26. The PDO aimed to address the adverse effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. It appropriately targeted the fragile country context and was highly relevant to the existing sectoral needs and those brought on by the pandemic. With many families losing jobs because of the pandemic and needing to remove their children from school due to the inability to cover fees, the project provided timely support to schools through, among other things, grants to keep schools operational and enable students, including the most vulnerable, to stay enrolled. The project supported the implementation of the National COVID-19 Response Plan “Keeping Students Safe and Engaged in Learning in Sudan”. The plan (adopted on April 22, 2020) included measures for continuity of learning, student safety, and psychosocial well-being. While interventions focused mostly on the direct plans of the Federal Ministry of Education (MOE), some were also related to health, water, sanitation, hygiene, and child welfare. The plan focused on (a) promoting safe learning at home until schools reopen; (b) preparing for schools to reopen safely, conduct exams, and facilitate catch-up; (c) accelerating innovative approaches to reach the most vulnerable strengthen system capacity; and (d) strengthening system capacity. 27. The project was aligned with the World Bank Group’s Country Engagement Note (CEN) for the Republic of Sudan for FY2021/22 (Report No. 152835-SD), which aims to support the efforts of the Government of Sudan (GOS) to strengthen service delivery and resilience in the education sector (objective 2.3). More specifically, Page 10 of 41 The World Bank Sudan Education COVID-19 Response (P174220) the CEN states the World Bank’s support of the GOS’s efforts to address the immediate effects of the COVID- 19 pandemic on its education system, the continuity of learning during the pandemic, and the preparation for the school system’s reopening after the pandemic subsides (World Bank Group 2020). The project also contributed to the long-term Poverty Reduction and Equity Strategy by investing in improving education outcomes across the country, including areas under conflict. It supported ISN Pillar II to “address socioeconomic roots of conflict” and will contribute to improve equitable service delivery in education. The operation was also in line with the government’s Basic Education Strategy and aimed to upgrade the learning environment in the states of Sudan. 28. In addition, the project objectives and activities were fully aligned wi th the goals set out in the government’s Education Sector Strategic Plan (ESSP) for 2018/19 to 2022/23. The project supported the ESSP’s top policy priority to prevent student dropout and improve learning in basic education. The strategy aims to ensure that the gains achieved from system expansion are long-lasting and to demonstrate that the government’s top priority in basic education is to retain learners in the system. Further, the project also contributed to Sudan’s progress toward Sustainable Development Goal 4 on education. The operation contributed to meeting this goal to ensure that, by 2030, all girls and boys will complete free, equitable and quality primary and secondary education, leading to relevant and effective learning outcomes. Specifically, the school grants contributed to the increased survival and completion rates in primary education and student progression to secondary education. 29. Based on this rationale, the overall rating for relevance is “high”. B. ACHIEVEMENT OF PDOs (EFFICACY) Assessment of Achievement of Each Objective/Outcome 30. The PDO had two parts: to support (a) learning continuity at the basic education level during the COVID-19 pandemic and school system shutdown, and (b) safe transition back to school during recovery. It was measured by a combination of four PDO indicators and seven IRIs presented in table 1, which also presented baselines, targets, and status of achievement by project closing. The project was able to fully achieve, and in some cases exceed, targets set at appraisal. Table 1. Summary of key results indicators, baselines, targets, and achievements Indicator Baseline Original Actual Percent of Comment target achieved by target project end achieved (actual to final target) PDO-level indicators: 1. PDO 1: Basic school 5,457,730 students students supported with received booklets with 0% 90% 109% Exceeded distance programs, content linked to the TV (Percentage) and radio lessons. 2. PDO 2: Basic school students supported with 0 5,000,000 5,457,730 Exceeded distance programs (Number) 3. PDO 3: Students previously Student enrollment in Fully enrolled in project-supported 0% 100% 100% project supported achieved schools who return to school schools increased from Page 11 of 41 The World Bank Sudan Education COVID-19 Response (P174220) once the school system is 5.4 million reopened (Percentage) (prepandemic) to 5.74 4. PDO 4: Students previously million after schools enrolled in project-supported reopened. Fully schools who return to school 5,400,000 5,400,000 5,741,459 achieved once the school system is reopened (Number) Intermediate Results Indicators: Supporting learning continuity IRI 1: Learning continuity Lessons in mathematics programs broadcasted daily Fully and Arabic were 0 2 2 through radio developed achieved developed and (Number) broadcasted. IRI 2: Basic school students All schools received accessing awareness training in safety campaign (Percentage) protocols for school reopening and received 0 90% 100% Exceeded manuals and posters on basic hygiene (handwashing) and safety protocols. IRI 3: Poor families receiving 0 100,000 0 Not achieved radios (Number) Over 33,000 community teachers were IRI 4: Teachers trained Fully 0 33,000 33,000 mobilized, trained, and (Number) achieved assigned for each participating school. Supporting safe transition back to schools IRI 5: Rapid Learning A student assessment in Fully Assessment conducted No Yes Yes mathematics and achieved (Yes/No) reading was conducted. IRI 6: Disadvantaged schools 1,760 public schools Fully receiving water tanks 0 1,760 1,760 received new water achieved (Number) tanks. 16,475 public schools received support from the project after Fully reopening. (25 small IRI 7: Grant-supported schools 0 16,500 16,475 achieved schools (with 2–3 reopened (Number) grades) were destroyed during the flood in 2020 and closed by the Federal MOE). Source: Sudan Education COVID-19 Response Project. Page 12 of 41 The World Bank Sudan Education COVID-19 Response (P174220) 31. The project activities that led to the achievement of the PDO are described below. PDO (part 1): Supporting learning continuity at the basic education level during the COVID-19 pandemic and school system shutdown 32. The project was successful at providing timely support for the continuity of learning during the school closures fully achieving this part of the PDO. The project ensured learning continuity by (a) providing booklets to students, and (b) developing and broadcasting lessons on TV and radio. The project provided learning continuity support to almost 5.5 million students, exceeding its target of 5.0 million students. This accounts for 109 percent of students enrolled in project schools before the school closure.5 33. The project supported remote learning through the distribution of booklets to students. By March 2021, under the project, 5,457,730 students received booklets (109 percent of the original target). The content of the booklets, which included both learning materials and homework, was linked to TV and radio lessons (had the same content as radio and TV lessons). Students could use these booklets to study during school closures and at other times as additional learning resources, thus benefitting from remote learning opportunities. The distribution of booklets to all students also helped improve the inclusion of students: students from remote areas who did not have access to broadcast lessons could continue learning using these booklets which included the same content as the TV and radio lessons. 34. The project also supported the development of 107 Arabic and mathematics lessons for remote learning (“Hesatey Educational Series”) based on basic school textbooks. These lessons were broadcast on national TV and radio stations for two hours a day. They were adapted and recorded into sign language for students with special educational needs (i.e., learners with hearing impairment). Audio and TV materials and corresponding assignments were provided to those students to ensure simplicity and easy accessibility for parents and teachers to follow. TV and radio lessons for Arabic and mathematics were accompanied by quizzes provided to viewers after each episode. The lessons were also uploaded in various social media platforms such as WhatsApp, Facebook, and YouTube with no restriction for use. These free uploaded lessons were shared widely among students and their families, especially among grade 8 students who were preparing for the final exam. According to the results of the school survey conducted by the PCU,6 headteachers confirmed that at least 76 percent of basic school students participated in the daily broadcasting of Arabic, mathematics, and English sessions. After schools reopened, the lessons were further enhanced based on factors, such as feedback received from participants and education stakeholders. In addition, 43 more lessons were developed, including lessons in English. Information was also produced and broadcast about general COVID-19 awareness and basic hygiene measures. 35. In addition to the provision of booklets to students, approximately 33,000 community teachers were mobilized, trained, and assigned to each participating school. Their main role was to collect and grade assignments, and they received a small stipend for their efforts. Nomination of the focal points (community teachers) was completed for all states of Sudan. A virtual orientation meeting was conducted with selected teachers at the state level, through which an introduction was provided on the intervention plan of disseminating mathematics and Arabic assignments through TV, radio, and newspapers. A Plan of Action was developed by the 5 By the end of the project, 5,741,459 students were enrolled in public basic schools, including 5,457,730 students supported by remote learning. 6 The Beneficiary Survey was conducted in March 2022 to assess and explain the main impacts of the project in terms of the lasting changes in the school environment of target beneficiaries, and the extent to which the project has caused or contributed to these changes. The survey questioned headteachers and teachers in 333 schools. In addition, Directors General of Education and Directors of Education in 16 out of 18 states of Sudan took part in the survey. Page 13 of 41 The World Bank Sudan Education COVID-19 Response (P174220) PCU for the implementation of TOT capacity development for the community teachers who were assigned to take over the responsibilities of the school distance learning for Math and Arabic at the schools. This activity was disrupted due to OP7.30. PDO (part 2): Safe transition back to school during recovery 36. The project fully achieved the PDO of safe transition back to school as measured by the percentage of students previously enrolled in project-supported schools who return to school once the school system is reopened. In fact, student enrollment at the project-supported schools increased from 5.46 million (pre-pandemic) to 5.74 million after schools reopened (by 5 percent), exceeding the target for this indicator. 37. The project implemented several activities to achieve this goal. • The project helped schools to broadly improve handwashing conditions and hygiene as a COVID-19 preventive measure when schools reopened. This goal was achieved by providing water tanks to schools to store water and COVID-19 response school grants to procure the most essential items such as soap, sanitizers, and face masks. In all, the project provided new water tanks to 1,760 public schools that had no water storage facilities and been without access to clean water. All beneficiary schools could also use the grants to prepare welcome packages for students upon their return. In addition, grants provided to all public schools under another GPE-funded operation — Sudan Education Emergency Support Project (P172812) — were used to buy water. • COVID-19 response school grants were provided to all public schools (about 16,500). The first installment of grants7 was disbursed in April–May 2021 for the 2020/21 school year. The second installment was ready to take place in November 2021 but could not be done due to the pause in disbursements under the OP7.30 directive. About 16,500 school representatives were trained in school-based management to plan and report back on the use of grants. 38. According to the school survey conducted under the Beneficiary Assessment of the PCU, headteachers confirmed that most funds from COVID-19 school grants (93 percent) were spent on (a) soap and cleaning items (45 percent), (b) face masks for students and teachers (20 percent), and (c) hand sanitizers and sanitizing wipes (28 percent). Most school principals (88 percent) confirmed that new water tanks and school grants helped to significantly improve hygiene conditions in their schools to secure a safe and conducive learning environment. 39. School grants helped increase parents’ engagement in their children’s education, as confirmed by 77 percent of teachers, 76 percent of education authorities, and 73 percent of PTA members. Parents’ engagement is crucial in reducing the risk of students (especially girls) dropping out. While basic education is officially free in Sudan, families have been contributing greatly to education expenditures at the school level. As the economic situation deteriorated, many vulnerable families were likely to lose the ability to pay for basic services and to pull their children, especially girls, out of school. Availability of WASH facilities also helped keep girls in school. In schools where girls had access to functional latrines in Sudan, survival rates were almost two times higher than in schools that lacked toilets (59 percent and 33 percent, respectively) (Kattan, Montenegro, Patrinos 2021). Grants also helped provide girls in the upper school grades with essential sanitation and hygiene packages, such as sanitary napkins, to encourage their retention. 40. The project supported communication/connectivity campaigns to ensure sustained enrollment of girls and vulnerable children and protect them from dropping out of school. All headteachers and one representative of the Parent-Teacher Association (PTA) in each of the approximately 16,500 basic schools were trained in safety protocols for school reopening. Each school received manuals and posters on basic hygiene (handwashing) and 7 Schools received 50 percent of the grant, i.e., US$50 each. The total disbursement under this activity totaled US$825,000. Page 14 of 41 The World Bank Sudan Education COVID-19 Response (P174220) safety protocols. 41. Available international benchmarks suggest that Sudan fared better than other countries in returning girls to school after closure. In Sudan, the number of female students in public basic schools declined marginally by 1 percent from 2.78 million in 2019 to 2.74 million in 2021. The negative impact could have been worse, and the project mitigated it to some extent. There are over 11 million girls in low- and middle-income countries who are likely not to return after the reopening of schools following their closures because of the COVID-19 pandemic (Kattan, Montenegro, Patrinos 2021). Studies show that girls are 2.5 times more likely to be out of school than boys during crises (Dogra n.d.). For example, school closures during the Ebola crisis left girls most vulnerable (Chavez 2015). In 2014, the Ebola epidemic hit Sierra Leone and Liberia hard, forcing them to close more than 10,000 schools for up to 10 months to contain the virus. When schools reopened in 2015, girls’ enrollment did not return to precrisis levels. In Sierra Leone, enrollment for girls fell by 16 percentage points after schools reopened in 2015 (Bhatti 2020). In Liberia, 8 out of 100 girls were out of school before the epidemic, and by 2017, 21 out of 100 were out of school. In contrast, in Sudan, the BEESP has been able to return girls to school after closure and sustain enrollment in basic education for girls to a considerable degree, not only during the COVID-19 pandemic, but also through the period of economic crisis. 42. Finally, the project aimed to identify learning gaps that occurred during the school closures and provide remedial programming and learning opportunities to help students catch up and recover learning at the grade level. A student assessment in mathematics and reading targeting grade 4 students was conducted on a sample of 500 basic education schools in April –May 2021. The results, released in December 2021, provided the government with strategic information to help reduce learning losses due to the extended school closures. The Rapid Learning Assessment (RLA) revealed low learning achievements of Sudanese grade 4 students in reading and mathematics. Students answered correctly only 26 percent of questions on the reading test and 42 percent of questions in mathematics. The best performers were students in private schools who obtained 46 percent of correct answers in reading and 59 percent in mathematics. At the same time, students in public schools scored 27 percent of correct answers in reading, and 40 percent in mathematics. There were also demographic gaps between students in urban and rural areas of Sudan; students in urban schools answered 32 percent of test items correctly in reading and 46 percent in mathematics, while students in rural schools scored 23 percent of correct answers in reading and 39 percent in math. Finally, among the three types of schools at the primary level in Sudan, students in schools for girls obtained 33 percent correct answers in reading and 47 percent in mathematics. Students in schools for boys scored 26 percent of correct answers in reading and 41 percent in mathematics; mixed (or co-ed) schools obtained 22 percent and 38 percent of correct items in reading and mathematics, respectively. Justification of Overall Efficacy Rating 43. The project fully achieved its development objectives despite the fragile context of Sudan and its prolonged economic crisis, coupled with the unanticipated COVID-19 pandemic and associated school closures. The project data indicate an increase in student enrollment over the project life cycle and enhancement of the education system capacity to deliver learning remotely. As a result, the overall project efficacy is rated as “substantial”. The project was delivered based on sustained enrollment of students who benefited from the project interventions (remote learning, water tanks, school grants), improved capacity of communities in school-based management and planning, and increased parents’ engagement in school life. Page 15 of 41 The World Bank Sudan Education COVID-19 Response (P174220) C. EFFICIENCY Assessment of Efficiency and Rating 44. The Sudan Education COVID-19 Response Project was implemented in an extremely challenging context of the COVID-19 pandemic along with economic instability, insecurity, and conflict in the country. The project was implemented at a time of extreme exchange rate fluctuation. The official exchange rate of SDG 55 per US$1 was not adjusted to reflect the local currency’s high inflation rate, which caused a significant shortage of funds for project activities. In January 2021, the US dollar was selling for around SDG 250 in cash transactions, and the gap with the official rate continued to widen. The MOE communicated with the Minister of Finance (MOF) to compensate the exchange rate for the project as an exceptional case and fulfill the government ’s commitment to the education sector. The MOF accepted the request, and the exchange rate of SDG 250 was implemented for the school grant distribution, which was done in April–May 2021.8 The government provided top-up funding (approximately SDG 1 billion) to meet the difference between the two exchange rates. 45. The project contributed to a higher rate of student retention in public basic schools despite COVID-19 setbacks, which is likely to lead to improved internal efficiency of basic education by preventing children from dropping out, thereby improving survival rates between grades 1 and 8. According to the results of the Efficiency Analysis (see annex 4 for details), before the project started, the share of “inefficient” public spending9 in Sudan’s basic education was equivalent to 27.6 percent of overall public expenditures in education in Sudan. Between 2018/19 and 2020/21, the share of “inefficient” government spending decreased by 2.7 percentage points. 46. The project helped mitigate the adverse effects of the pandemic on education outcomes, which are critical to the development of human capital. Private returns to education are high in Sub-Saharan Africa, where one additional year of education (primary through higher education) represents on average a 12 percent increase in lifetime expected income. The economic analysis confirms the rationale of the project, with Net Present Value (NPV) ranging from US$10.3 million to US$52.1 million, and Internal Rate of Return (IRR) between 14 percent and 32 percent. The range of estimated economic benefits is wider than the range of NPVs computed during the project design10 mainly due to a greater uncertainty in future earnings brought on by the pandemic. If the project prevents just 5 percent of students in basic education (279,000 students) from dropping out of school, there would be a wage premium of US$84.0 million for workers who completed their basic education, taking into consideration their survival and repetition rates in primary education. 47. The project disbursed 44 percent of the grant and had savings, which allowed the implementation of almost all its activities. Without the savings brought on by the local currency exchange rate fluctuation, the project disbursement rate would be 63 percent by the time when OP7.03 was triggered. The difference in the exchange rate allowed schools to buy more goods and services with the same dollar amount. The remaining activities, including the provision of second tranche of school grants and distribution of radios to children in the most underserved families, were planned to be implemented before closing on December 31, 2021, and the disbursement rate was expected to reach approximately 80 percent. These activities could not be implemented because of the pause in the disbursement under OP7.30. 8 As mentioned earlier in the report, the distribution of grants was divided into two installments (para 21). The first installment of the school grant distribution was conducted right after school resumed in February 2021 (the rate of SDG 250 per US$1 was applied). The second disbursement was made in April–May 2021 at the rate of SDG 400 per US$1, the official exchange rate at that time. 9 “Inefficient” spending is defined as the money that the government spends through teacher salaries and other education-related items, such as on goods and services for schools and on students that repeat grades or drop out before completing the basic education cycle. 10 The project NPV ranged between US$15.2 million and US$45.5 million during the design stage. Page 16 of 41 The World Bank Sudan Education COVID-19 Response (P174220) 48. Based on this rationale, the overall rating for efficiency is “substantial”. D. JUSTIFICATION OF OVERALL OUTCOME RATING 49. The overall outcome is “satisfactory” based on high relevance, substantial efficacy, and substantial efficiency. The project’s design and streamlined implementation procedures allowed the project to withstand shocks brought on by the political turnover, overlapping economic and COVID-19 crises, floods, and continuous armed conflicts. Full achievement of the results under this context is extraordinary. The progress made under the project is remarkable and shall be considered as best practice of responding to education challenges in fragile, conflict and violence (FCV) contexts. Table 2 presents the overall outcome rating. Table 2. Overall outcome rating Rating dimension Ratings Relevance of objectives High Efficacy Substantial Efficiency Substantial Outcome Satisfactory E. OTHER OUTCOMES AND IMPACTS (IF ANY) Gender 50. One of the key focus areas under the Sudan Education COVID-19 Response Project was improving the learning environment for girls. The project considered gender-sensitive planning through systematic gender analysis, action, monitoring, and reporting. The analysis considered gender disparities among different states, retention of girls in schools, and understanding the distribution of female teachers. The project sought to raise awareness in communities about the importance of encouraging girls to stay in school and complete their basic education, as well as concerns related to early marriage. The decrease in girls’ enrollment was expected as numerous studies have shown that in times of crisis, girls are often at greater risk than boys of dropping out of school. Girls reaching the age of puberty are the first to be pulled out of school in an emergency, usually due to parents’ concerns about security or to alleviate the extra domestic burdens caused by the crisis (Kwauk et al 2019). Global estimates show that, during conflict, more than 70 percent of women and girls experience gender-based violence (GBV) (UN Women 2020). Institutional Strengthening 51. The education materials developed under the project and the establishment of dedicated TV stations for broadcasting lessons constitute a major contribution to strengthening the education system in Sudan. Both the design of the learning materials for broadcasting through radio and TV, and the creation of two TV stations was done through an iterative process involving key education institutions and partners in Sudan and generating knowledge and experience that remains in the institutions. For example, Sudan considerably upgraded the internal capacity to develop digital learning materials, which will benefit the education system for many years. 52. The project was focused on strengthening the basic education system and building capacity to respond to the COVID-19 crisis, including bolstering the community’s overall role in participatory management and planning at the school level, which is expected to be sustained in the long term. Parents’ participation in planning and setting budgets also increased, according to 77 percent of teachers and 73 percent of PTA representatives surveyed. Under the project, localities were responsible for allocating the grants to schools to ensure basic hygiene conditions. PTAs and school principals were trained on participatory planning, appropriate use of school grants, and supervision of the Page 17 of 41 The World Bank Sudan Education COVID-19 Response (P174220) implementation of the grants. The states with support from the PCU were responsible for capacity building at the community level, including empowerment, inclusion, gender sensitivity, and school safety. They trained the localities and prepared them to perform their role in overseeing the implementation of the school grants. The PCU assessed the capacity of localities and schools in participatory planning and monitored school results. 53. The knowledge and skills acquired at the school level, both by administrators and the school communities, have a high degree of sustainability. First, there is low rate of staff rotation in public schools; principals and key school staff are likely to remain. Second, the knowledge and skills developed under the project will be further strengthened under the following GPE-funded projects, including the Basic Education Support Project that will support the education system until 2025. Mobilizing Private Sector Financing 54. Not applicable. Poverty Reduction and Shared Prosperity 55. The project helped to reduce the cost of basic education for families. While basic education is officially free in Sudan, families were contributing greatly to education costs, including goods and services, capital costs, salaries to volunteer teachers, and food provision to teachers and students. In basic education, for instance, on top of the SDG 2.6 trillion covered by public finances in 2016/17, parents added a total of SDG 496 million, about 16 percent of the known spending. As the economic situation deteriorated, many vulnerable families faced a greater risk of losing the ability to pay for basic services and pulling their children out of school (especially girls). The project targeted all public basic schools and students in Sudan to receive grants, helping to reduce the burden of education costs on households incurred through parental contributions and other direct costs. Thus, school grants played an important role in mitigating the expected economic shock on the most vulnerable. 56. The project helped mitigate the adverse effects of the pandemic and the economic crisis on education outcomes, which are critical to the development of human capital and poverty reduction. Private returns to education are high in Sub-Saharan Africa, where one additional year of education (primary through higher education) represents on average a 12.4 percent increase in expected income. Other Unintended Outcomes and Impacts 57. Not applicable. III. KEY FACTORS THAT AFFECTED IMPLEMENTATION AND OUTCOME A. KEY FACTORS DURING PREPARATION 58. The project utilized the capacity and structures built under the closed BEESP and BERP. The key PCU staff, including the Program Coordinator, was sustained under the Sudan Education COVID-19 Response Project. The project benefited from the institutional memory of the PCU and inherited the past investments in office equipment and vehicles. The PCU had the same fiduciary function as under the implementation of two projects. Also, all procurement activities were similar to those under the projects. The government gained substantial experience in project management within the BERP and BEESP which were rated “satisfactory” and “highly satisfactory”, respectively, in financial management. In addition, the Sudan Education COVID-19 Response Project utilized the network of trainers at the state and locality level to deliver capacity-building activities down to the school level. Page 18 of 41 The World Bank Sudan Education COVID-19 Response (P174220) Finally, the project used the capacity of localities in school-based management and delivery of school grants. According to the assessment done during the project appraisal in early 2020, 53 out of 185 localities in Sudan had sufficient technical and financial management capacity to implement the school grant activities directly, without help from intermediary support providers (ISPs).11 These localities have 44 percent of all public schools. Notably, 80 percent of the grant provision under the project was done through the direct implementation modality (and the rest with the help from ISPs). 59. National education strategies. The GOS’s ESSP, which clearly laid out its priorities in the education sector, greatly impacted project design and preparation. The Sudan Education COVID-19 Response Project was designed to align with the GOS’s commitments to Sustainable Development Goals and Education for All and to investment in human capital, a key pillar in the Interim Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (IPRSP). More specifically, the project addressed the urgent objectives of the Interim Basic Education Strategy (IBES): improving access to education alongside strengthening the education system for the long-term sustainability of the sector. 60. Lending instrument. In preparing this project, the World Bank appropriately applied the OP/BP 8.0 guiding principles for rapid response to crises, enabling it to support the GOS in addressing the most critical immediate and medium- term pressures on Sudan’s basic education system. The World Bank helped mediate the externalities associated with the fiscal shocks Sudan was facing and quickly provided financial resources for service delivery in the context of short-term austerity measures. 61. Use of GPE funding. Sudan was ineligible for World Bank financing at the time of project preparation, and therefore mobilizing GPE funding was critical for any support to the sector. The rationale for the World Bank’s role as the supervising entity for the GPE-funded project was based on its long-standing involvement in Sudan’s education sector and the provision of technical expertise since 2009. 62. Stakeholder collaboration. The Sudan Education COVID-19 Response Project was prepared with close collaboration between the World Bank task team and the Local Education Sector Group (LEG), which was led by the Federal MOE and included representatives from the ministry, donor agencies, international partners, civil society, and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs). The LEG was and continues to be coordinated by UNICEF. B. KEY FACTORS DURING IMPLEMENTATION 63. Massive floods in September 2020. In addition to the severe effect of the pandemic, the education system in Sudan was impacted by widespread floods in August–September 2020. After schools closed in March 2020, they were expected to reopen in September 2020, but widespread floods in Sudan (as well as concerns about COVID-19) delayed the process for a safe reopening.12 The Nile River rose to its highest levels in over 100 years and resulted in extensive destruction of infrastructure, crops, and livestock, directly affecting 650,000 people and indirectly affecting 1.7 million people. In addition, according to UNICEF, about 443 schools were either destroyed or damaged (UNICEF Sudan 2020). 64. Local currency exchange rate. When the project was implemented, the official exchange rate of SDG 55 per US$1 was not adjusted to reflect the local currency’s high inflation rate, which caused a significant shortage of funds for project activities. In January 2021, the US dollar was selling for around SDG 250 in cash transactions, and the gap with the official rate continued to widen. The MOE communicated with the MOF to compensate the exchange rate 11 This means that those localities had ability to perform the required FM functions, existence of banking services in the localities, preparedness of the localities to open separate bank accounts for the grant fund, existence of competent FM staff and internal audit functions in conducive safety and security environment. 12 The tentative new date for reopening school was November 22, 2020. Page 19 of 41 The World Bank Sudan Education COVID-19 Response (P174220) for the project as an exceptional case and fulfill the government commitment for the education sector. The MOF accepted the request, and the exchange rate of SDG 250 per US$1 was implemented for the school grant distribution in the first installment in April–May 2021. The government provided top-up funding to meet the difference between the two exchange rates. After the exchange rate liberalization13 in Sudan in February 2021, the project has earned savings of approximately US$2 million (18.8 percent of the grant) for all the activities using local currency. 65. Military takeover. Just before closing, the project was severely affected by the military takeover in Sudan, which started on October 25, 2021, when the military has dissolved the civilian government, arrested political leaders, and declared a state of emergency. On October 27, 2021, the World Bank's internal directive, OP7.30 Dealings with De Facto Governments, was triggered. As a result, most country program activities were put on hold, and disbursements for operations were paused, including activities under the project. The pause in disbursements did not allow the project to complete all activities before closing on December 31, 2021. 66. Finally, the project intended to improve equity in access to remote learning by providing radios to the lowest- income families. The project was designed to provide radios and solar power banks to targeted households in remote low-income areas to enable children to participate in distant learning via radio in mathematics and Arabic during the school closures. Even after schools resumed, radios would allow low-performing students to complement their in-school learning with remote lessons to catch up with their peers. The PCU initiated the process of procuring radios and solar power banks on time through the United Nations Office for Project Services (UNOPS), but the offered unit cost was too high. As a result, the project had to find alternative ways to procure radios and solar power banks, which caused delays in the implementation of this subcomponent. In agreement with the World Bank, the procurement method was changed from international bidding to limited international bidding. The procurement process was underway when the military takeover took place on October 25, 2021, and this activity was put on hold. The project restructuring that aimed to extend the operation closing date would have allowed the completion of the procurement and distribution of radios, but the restructuring paper was not submitted due to OP7.30. 14 IV. BANK PERFORMANCE, COMPLIANCE ISSUES, AND RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME A. QUALITY OF MONITORING AND EVALUATION (M&E) M&E Design 67. M&E design was adequately structured. The results framework was clear and succinct with a simple and straightforward results chain, in alignment with the emergency nature of the project. To monitor progress of the PDO, indicators with ambitious but realistic targets were identified, such as the number of learning continuity programs broadcasted through radio developed, the number of basic school students accessing the awareness campaign, the number of teachers trained, the number of disadvantaged schools receiving water tanks, and the number of grant-supported schools reopened. These indicators were adequate to assess the effectiveness of the PDO after the delivery of training and school grants. M&E Implementation 68. The project successfully implemented the M&E system it inherited from the previous BEESP and BERP, including 13 On February 21, 2021, the Central Bank of Sudan announced a managed flotation of its currency to address high inflation and overcome a crippling economic crisis. This change was a key reform demanded by foreign donors and the IMF. The exchange rate reached US$1 to SDG 448 by September 2021. 14 However, while the extension of the project would have secured the radios as per the project design, it had become evident that the distribution of the booklets to all students was the most effective way to reach the most vulnerable. Page 20 of 41 The World Bank Sudan Education COVID-19 Response (P174220) the PCU’s regular monitoring reports and World Bank’s implementation status and results reports (ISRs), despite hinderances in capturing data early on in implementation. In addition, the PCU had a dedicated M&E specialist who played a key role in developing and implementing an M&E plan for regular data collection, monitoring and reporting on project activities and indicators. A beneficiary survey was conducted at the end of the project implementation to help evaluate the project results. M&E Utilization 69. The project was able to build on systems already in place and utilized one key data collection mechanism developed under the BERP — the ASC — which collects critical information on basic education schools such as student enrollment, number of teachers, and available school infrastructure. The ASC has proven to be a reliable source of information by collecting consistent data from schools every year since 2015. The project targeted all public basic schools in Sudan. Rich ASC school-level data, including precise geospatial school information, was used for targeting of project beneficiaries, project costing, and logistics, while assessing the capacity of localities and schools in participatory planning and monitoring of school results, as well as delivering training and distributing school grant manuals and grants. This approach prevented fragmentation of data collection as is often the case in many settings and allowed schools and the ministry to monitor progress using a consolidated tool. Justification of Overall Rating of Quality of M&E 70. There were no shortcomings in the M&E system’s design, implementation, or utilization. The M&E system was more than sufficient to assess the achievement of the objectives and to test the links in the results chain. The PCU succeeded in collecting and recording the data despite the school closures and travel restrictions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, which was remarkable. The overall rating for M&E is “high”. B. ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, AND FIDUCIARY COMPLIANCE 71. Fiduciary compliance. The project was built on the BERP and was managed by its PCU. The PCU was placed under the MOE but based in a separate location. The purpose of keeping the PCU in place for the project was to benefit from the institutional memory of the PCU staff who received training in basic World Bank project implementation and fiduciary procedures. 72. Financial management. The financial management framework of the Sudan Education COVID-19 Response Project operated on the already established system developed under the BERP. It was challenging at the beginning of the project, mainly due to the weak capacity and the resignation of the Financial Management Specialist (FMS) at the PCU. The delay in reappointing an FMS led to a delay in the preparation and submission of the financial reports. The PCU was also delayed in implementing the computerized accounting system. However, the inclusion of the new FMS and an accountant who was seconded from the government led to remarkable improvement. 73. Interim Unaudited Financial Reports (IFRs) and withdrawal applications were submitted in a timely manner overall with only occasional delays. PCU employed reasonable internal control procedures to monitor and control the project funds and ensure their use for the intended purposes. The project is up to date regarding the submission of the audit reports, which are audited by the National Audit Chamber. The latest audit report for the year ending December 31, 2021, was submitted on June 30, 2022. The auditors have expressed unqualified opinion (clean opinion) on the Financial Statements of the project. However, the World Bank requested revisions of the IFRs for the period ending June 30, 2021, and September 30, 2021, due to some reporting irregularity, and the accuracy of these reports are to be reviewed and corrected by the project Financial Management (FM). 74. The financial management of the project was rated moderately satisfactory during the project implementation Page 21 of 41 The World Bank Sudan Education COVID-19 Response (P174220) period. 75. The procurement under the project was implemented by the PCU. The PCU had the same fiduciary function as under the BEESP and BERP implementation. During the project appraisal, the procurement arrangements had been assessed and the procurement risk was rated as “high”. Risk mitigation measures were discussed and agreed upon with the PCU before the project launch. The measures included intensive training of staff from the procurement unit on the use of the World Bank procedures and processes for procurement of works, goods, and selection of consultants. The risk was also mitigated through regular reporting on the progress and implementation of fiduciary activities by the PCU; continuous supervision by the World Bank project team; hands-on support from the World Bank procurement team, including reviewing documentation to ensure alignment with the World Bank Guidelines; and further capacity building and training. UNICEF in its role as the coordinating agency for the grant held regular LEG meetings to review the project progress and provide valuable inputs and comments. Procurement was rated “satisfactory” in all ISRs. 76. Environmental and social risk rating was assessed as “moderate” during the appraisal. School grants were an essential source of funding for schools to support the acquisition of basic learning materials, stationery, notebooks, classrooms furniture, and to provide services, such as water provision and support for small repairs. These services contributed to improving the learning environment, which in turn helped attract and retain students and teachers in school. The project provided COVID-19 school grants for all public schools throughout the country. Grants were used for improving water supply and sanitation infrastructure, such as supplying water tanks and clay pots within school boundaries, as well as for hiring voluntary teachers in schools across Sudan, including in conflict-affected areas. Therefore, the environmental and social risk rating was “moderate”. 77. The stakeholder engagement plan (SEP) with a grievance redress mechanism was successfully developed and implemented. The Gender-based Violence (GBV) Assessment and the Action Plan was prepared, and by the time of the project closing, it was under review by the World Bank. Recommendations from the social assessment study are to inform the implementation of the Sudan Basic Education Support Project (BESP, P167169), which closes in April 2025. Some of the activities agreed upon during the implementation support mission were not implemented in a timely manner, including the hiring of the Environmental and Social Specialist in the PCU, partly due to the challenges associated with the unanticipated COVID-19 pandemic and the emergency nature of the project. Thus, the environmental and social performance was rated “moderately satisfactory” during the project implementation. C. BANK PERFORMANCE Quality at Entry 78. At the time of appraisal, the team ensured that the project was designed to respond to the challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic. The project supported the implementation of the National COVID-19 Response Plan “Keeping Students Safe and Engaged in Learning in Sudan”. The plan (adopted on April 22, 2020) included measures for continuity of learning, student safety, and psychosocial well-being. While interventions focused mostly on the direct plans of the Federal (MOE), some were also related to health, water, sanitation, hygiene, and child welfare. The plan focused on (a) promoting safe learning at home until schools reopen; (b) preparing for schools to reopen safely, conduct exams and facilitate catch-up; (c) accelerating innovative approaches to reach the most vulnerable strengthen system capacity; and (d) strengthening system capacity. The project also benefited from the multisectoral approach coordinated between the Federal (MOE), Ministry of Health, Ministry of Water Resources, Irrigation and Electricity, and development partners who worked together to develop sound COVID-19 protocols for the Sudanese. 79. The project was prepared according to the World Bank’s policy and directive Investment Project Financing (IPF; formerly OP/BP 10) “Projects in Situations of Urgent Need of Assistance or Capacity Constraints”. The PDO was Page 22 of 41 The World Bank Sudan Education COVID-19 Response (P174220) appropriately targeted for a rapid response project in a fragile conflict situation and addressed the adverse effect of the COVID-19 pandemic. It supported learning continuity at the basic education level during the COVID-19 pandemic and school system shutdown and safe transition back to school during recovery. The PDO and the results chain remained relevant throughout the project life cycle. The results framework was appropriately defined and included indicators to measure the PDO and intermediate results to capture the results chain for each outcome. In addition, the simple design of the operation, which included only one core component, ensured successful coordination, monitoring, and supervision. 80. The project was processed under emergency procedures and funded by the GPE. On March 31, 2020, the GPE Board voted to create a US$250.0 million COVID-19 Accelerated Funding Window under the GPE Fund (for which the World Bank is the Trustee). This window provided allocations to address the pandemic's impact on education systems in 67 eligible-to-apply countries. Sudan was eligible to receive up to US$11 million as a grant (including Grant Agency supervision fees). In this regard, the project underwent reviews from both the World Bank and the GPE. Quality of Supervision 81. The project team included staff based in both Washington, DC (headquarters) and Khartoum (country office), providing clients access to in-country support and regular supervision. The project was approved and became effective in the middle of the COVID-19 pandemic and national lockdown. The team quickly adapted to the new normal of working remotely with the client. The project team demonstrated strong supervision by introducing biweekly meetings with the PCU, starting from the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic when travel restrictions were in place. A virtual review and implementation support mission was held in January 2021. The team timely and successfully communicated with the MOF to compensate the exchange rate for the project through the MOE (the PCU) and through the World Bank’s official communication channel (the Khartoum country office). Further, the ISR and status of the results framework indicators were always updated with the actual values and/or explanations when warranted to report on the project’s progress. In addition, the World Bank team provided continuous implementation support to the government and provided fiduciary (procurement and financial management) safeguards and technical support in key areas (e.g., in designing/adapting lessons to multimedia modalities and designing assessment tools linked to the audio/TV lessons broadcasted, communication awareness campaign for safe school returns, etc.). It also helped build government capacity in these areas. Justification of Overall Rating of Bank Performance 82. Overall, the World Bank’s performance is rated “satisfactory ” based on the review of the World Bank’s quality at entry, performance during supervision, and proactiveness in initiating the restructuring. D. RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME 83. The risk to sustaining the development outcome is rated “ high” primarily due to the uncertain political/governance situation, fragile environment, volatile economic conditions, and prolonged COVID-19 pandemic. However, while some outputs of the project like school grants may not be sustainable due to the country’s current economic and political environment, the fact that 80 percent of schools can manage the grants directly without the ISPs is remarkable, and there are strong indications that this capacity building is sustainable. In addition, the remote learning system for broadcasting of lessons on TV and radio and institutional systems established through implementation and the knowledge-transfer to the school level have a high likelihood of sustainability and transfer to other activities. 84. Sudan has suffered from conflict and political instability since independence and is currently at a unique historical Page 23 of 41 The World Bank Sudan Education COVID-19 Response (P174220) juncture. A political crisis hit Sudan in 2018 that led to the dismissal of the previous regime after 30 years in power. A new government was formed in mid-2019 to lead the transition phase for the next three years. With these changes and the lifting of US sanctions in Sudan, the World Bank and other development partners have responded to support and strengthen Sudan’s engagement in the global economy. 85. Macroeconomic instability, including high inflation, foreign exchange shortage, and lack of liquidity, is hampering the economy. There have been shortages in bread, fuel, and currency/cash, while inflation is maintaining an increasing trend. According to the GOS, Sudan’s annual inflation rate rose to 413 percent in June 2021, up from 379 percent in May 2021. 86. Even though the project closed before completing all activities, the Country Management Unit in Sudan and the World Bank team requested UNICEF to implement the unfinished tasks. The World Bank was instrumental in this dialogue and will provide advisory support to UNICEF. In addition, the capacity built under the project at the school and locality levels is likely to be sustained and further enhanced under another GPE-funded Sudan BESP (P167169) once OP 7.30 is lifted. The school grant program will be part of the BESP and should be sustainable during the project period (until 2025). However, the sustainability issue will need to be discussed and resolved during the implementation of the BESP. V. LESSONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 87. TV and radio programs are useful for remote learning and can be a very practical approach for learning at any time, not just during school closure, however, measuring access to these media and reaching the most vulnerable can be difficult. Complementary physical materials, such as booklets, have proven to be fundamental to reach the most vulnerable, and they are much easier to capture and document information on student access to these learning materials. Lessons learned from 1.5 years of the COVID-19 pandemic show that TV programs are more effective in supporting children's learning than radio programs.15 However, children from disadvantaged areas have less chance to use the remote learning TV programs broadcasted by the MOE due to the lack of TV sets. The distribution of printed materials for all basic education students was fundamental to ensure continuity of learning Arabic, mathematics, and English for all students, including the most vulnerable who have no access to TV and radio. Also, the team learned that measuring access to learning opportunities through TV and radio can be challenging as the TV and radio providers could not capture whether information was accessed. The only way to have a sense of the number of students accessing learning opportunities through these media would be through surveys, which require proper planning and budgeting during the project design stage. 88. School grants played a pivotal role in reducing the cost for families to access basic education and to sustain enrollment during the pandemic, and the good practices generated from this experience should help Sudan to move toward a more targeted approach and to consider performance-based allocations of school grants. While basic education is officially free in Sudan, families contribute greatly to education costs. Schools collect informal fees for uniforms, learning materials, and meals (also called contributions). Due to the pandemic, many families lost jobs and opportunities to generate incomes, affecting their ability to bear education costs. Therefore, before school grants were delivered under the BEESP and the COVID-19 Response Project, the Federal MOE in Sudan, which is responsible for policy making, prohibited schools from collecting fees from families under the threat of being 15Compared to radio, TV is a more effective way to support student learning. Radio instruction can be impersonal, and students listening for a long period of time only to a voice from a “box” can lose interest quickly. TV instruction can employ a variety of audio-visual aids, which radio cannot. TV learning programs have visual and sound capabilities that can be more effective than radio in delivering education content, communicating with learners, and motivating students as well as teachers. Page 24 of 41 The World Bank Sudan Education COVID-19 Response (P174220) expelled from the project. Thus, school grants helped to sustain student enrollment by reinforcing the policy of free basic education and reducing the cost for families, as noted by households that participated in the Beneficiary Survey. For future operations, considerations on the mechanism used to target schools in disadvantaged areas coupled with a performance-based allocation of school grants could help reach schools in vulnerable communities while more sharply focusing on key education results, including retention of students and completion of basic education. 89. The project promoted a system-level approach to respond to the COVID-19 crisis and complemented localized efforts by other development partners. Most of the project’s intervention had national coverage, and project activities were implemented through education entities at different administrative level, complementing the efforts of many other development partners working in some states and localities. The learning materials developed by the project and the training protocols to reach all schools principals and teachers on the use of the materials are important gains for the education system, and there is willingness from development partners to support the use of these materials other than duplicating efforts. While synergies with other GPE projects and development partners intervention were foreseen, the collaborative work between various stakeholders, including government entities, has contributed to strengthening existing institutions and creating new ones, such as the TV channels, which will last beyond the project. The work at system level and in coordination with various government entities and development partners focusing on the same objectives, using different tools, yet harmonizing approaches, is a key factor for sustainability. 90. The provision of water tanks to schools with no access to water is an intervention that will continue beyond the COVID-19 emergency. Water tanks played a key role in creating the necessary conditions to ensure handwashing protocols and prevent the spreading of COVID-19 in schools. The availability of water in schools has an impact beyond those related to the pandemic or the prevention of other waterborne diseases. From a girls’ education perspective, the availability of water in schools is fundamental to reduce girls’ absenteeism due to lack of menstrual hygiene conditions in schools. As such, one important lesson from this project is to stimulate a multisectoral approach to improve conditions in schools. A partnership between the Ministry of Education and Ministry of Water Resources, Irrigation and Electricity should prevail to ensure that all schools in Sudan have a solution for the provision of water to the school community. Many other partnerships should also be considered, including bringing access to energy, connectivity, and roads to support the improvement of learning conditions in schools. The education system could benefit from focusing more on its core business, such of teacher training, learning materials, standards development, among others.16 91. The project was enabled through key interventions by the World Bank and development partners. The World Bank provided systematic support through regular meetings with the PCU, which extended beyond the World Bank’s typical supervisory role. For example, the World Bank facilitated the preparation of TV and radio lessons under tight schedules, and it provided specific technical expertise related to the delivery of programs in fragile settings. The expertise of development partners also benefited the project (e.g., British Council’s development of English lessons). 16Such partnerships between ministries could lead to other partnerships that could help improve the learning conditions in schools, such as providing a more robust energy supply, reliable internet connectivity, and improved roads. With these partnerships in place, the education system could then focus on its core mission of teaching and learning. Page 25 of 41 The World Bank Sudan Education COVID-19 Response (P174220) References Aghion, P., L. Boustan, C. Hoxby, and J. Vandenbussche. 2009. “The Causal Impact of Education on Economic Growth: Evidence from U.S.” Harvard University Working Paper, Harvard, Cambridge . Aslam, A., S. Delepierre, R. Gupta, and H. Rawlings. 2022. “Revenue Mobilization in Sub-Saharan Africa during the Pandemic. African Development,” January 26, 2022. Special Series on COVID-19, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC. Azevedo, J. P., A. Hasan, D. Goldemberg, S. A. Iqbal, and K. Geven. 2020. “Simulating the Potential Impacts of COVID-19 School Closures on Schooling and Learning Outcomes.” Policy Research Working Paper 9284, World Bank, Washington, DC. Balart, P., M. Oosterveen, and D. Webbink. 2018. “Test Scores, Noncognitive Skills and Economic Growth.” Economics of Education Review 63: 134–53. Bhatti, J. 2020. “The Lessons of Ebola: 2014 Epidemic Drove Many Girls Out of School Permanently.” Al-Fanar Media, November 11, 2020. https://www.al-fanarmedia.org/2020/11/lessons-ebola-2014-epidemic- drove-many-girls-out-of-school-permanently/. Chavez, D. 2015. “Back to School After the Ebola Outbreak.” World Bank (website), May 1, 2015. https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2015/05/01/back-to-school-after-ebola-outbreak. Dogra, K. n.d. COVID-19 School Closures Impact Nearly 743 Million Girls. Plan International (blog), n.d. https://stories.plancanada.ca/covid-19-school-closures-impact-nearly-743-million-girls/. Hanushek, E. A., and L. Woessmann. 2015. The Knowledge Capital of Nations: Education and the Economics of Growth. Cambridge: MIT Press. Kattan, R. B., C. E. Montenegro, and H. A. Patrinos. 2021. “Realizing the Returns to Schooling: How. COVID-19 and School Closures Are Threatening Women's Economic Future,” World Bank Blogs, February 9, 2021. Kwauk, C., J. Cooke, E. Hara, and J. Pegram. 2019. “Girls’ Education in Climate Strategies: Opportunities for Improved Policy and Enhanced Action in Nationally Determined Contributions.” Global Economy and Development Working Paper 133, Brookings, Washington, DC. Rossi, F. 2018. “Human Capital and Macroeconomic Development.” Policy Research Working Paper, WPS8650, World Bank, Washington DC. Sudan (FMOE) Federal Ministry of Education. 2019. Education Sector Analysis 2018. UN Women. 2020. “Women Mobilize to Prevent COVID-19 in Crowded Rohingya Refugee Camps,” UN Women (website), April 16, 2020. https://www.unwomen.org/en/news/stories/2020/4/feature-women- mobilize-to-prevent-COVID-19-in-rohingya-refugee-camps. UNICEF (United Nations Children’s Fund) Sudan. 2020. Floods Situation Report. Khartoum: UNICEF Sudan. https://www.unicef.org/sudan/media/4876/file/UNICEF%20External%20Situation%20Report.pdf. World Bank Group. 2020. “Country Engagement Note (CEN): Sudan for the Period FY21–FY22, September 10, 2020.” Report No. 152835-SD, World Bank, Washington, DC. . Page 26 of 41 The World Bank Sudan Education COVID-19 Response (P174220) ANNEX 1. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND KEY OUTPUTS A. RESULTS INDICATORS A.1 PDO Indicators Objective/Outcome: To support learning continuity during the COVID-19 pandemic and safe transition back to school Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Basic school students Percentage 0.00 90.00 109.00 supported with distance programs 01-Aug-2020 04-Aug-2020 31-Dec-2021 Comments (achievements against targets): Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Basic school students Number 0.00 5,000,000.00 5,457,730.00 supported with distance learning programs 01-Aug-2020 04-Aug-2020 31-Dec-2021 Comments (achievements against targets): Page 27 of 41 The World Bank Sudan Education COVID-19 Response (P174220) Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Students previously enrolled Percentage 0.00 100.00 106.00 in project-supported schools who return to school once 01-Aug-2020 04-Aug-2020 31-Dec-2021 the school system is reopened Comments (achievements against targets): Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Students previously enrolled Number 0.00 5,400,000.00 5,741,459.00 in project support schools return 01-Aug-2020 04-Aug-2020 31-Dec-2021 Comments (achievements against targets): A.2 Intermediate Results Indicators Component: Supporting learning continuity Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Page 28 of 41 The World Bank Sudan Education COVID-19 Response (P174220) Number of learning Number 0.00 2.00 2.00 continuity programs broadcasted daily through 01-Aug-2020 04-Aug-2020 31-Dec-2021 radio developed Comments (achievements against targets): Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Basic school students Percentage 0.00 90.00 100.00 accessing awareness campaign 01-Aug-2020 04-Aug-2020 31-Dec-2021 Comments (achievements against targets): Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Number of poor families Number 0.00 100,000.00 0.00 receiving radios 01-Aug-2020 04-Aug-2020 31-Dec-2021 Comments (achievements against targets): Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Page 29 of 41 The World Bank Sudan Education COVID-19 Response (P174220) Target Completion Number of teachers trained Number 0.00 33,000.00 33,000.00 01-Aug-2020 04-Aug-2020 31-Dec-2021 Comments (achievements against targets): Component: Supporting safe transition back to schools Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Rapid Learning Assessment Yes/No No Yes Yes conducted 01-Aug-2020 04-Aug-2020 31-Dec-2021 Comments (achievements against targets): Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Disadvantaged schools Number 0.00 1,760.00 1,760.00 receiving water tanks 01-Aug-2020 04-Aug-2020 31-Dec-2021 Comments (achievements against targets): Page 30 of 41 The World Bank Sudan Education COVID-19 Response (P174220) Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Grant-supported school Number 0.00 16,500.00 16,475.00 reopen 01-Aug-2020 04-Aug-2020 31-Dec-2021 Comments (achievements against targets): Page 31 of 41 The World Bank Sudan Education COVID-19 Response (P174220) B. KEY OUTPUTS BY COMPONENT Objective/Outcome: To support learning continuity during the COVID-19 pandemic and safe transition back to school 1. Basic school students supported with distance programs. Outcome Indicators 2. Students previously enrolled in project-supported schools who return to school once the school system is reopened. 1. Number of learning continuity programs broadcasted daily through radio developed. 2. Basic school students accessing awareness campaign. 3. Number of poor families receiving radios. Intermediate Results Indicators 4. Number of teachers trained. 5. Supporting safe transition back to schools Rapid Learning Assessment conducted. 6. Disadvantaged schools receiving water tanks. 7. Grant-supported schools reopened. Component 1. Supporting learning continuity 1. Radio programs and newspaper columns in mathematics and Arabic available to population. 2. Project beneficiaries with enhanced engagement to facilitate Key Outputs by Component learning continuity. (linked to the achievement of the objective/outcome) 3. Project beneficiaries with better access to remote learning. Component 2. Supporting safe transition back to schools 4. Policy to address learning gaps informed. 5. Schools with new water tanks for water storage. Page 32 of 41 The World Bank Sudan Education COVID-19 Response (P174220) ANNEX 2. BANK LENDING AND IMPLEMENTATION SUPPORT/SUPERVISION A. TASK TEAM MEMBERS Name Role Preparation Omer Nasir Elseed, Thanh Thi Mai Task Team Leader(s) Anjani Kumar, Nizar Mohamed Ahmed Abu Elzoul Procurement Specialist(s) Stephen Diero Amayo Financial Management Specialist Omer Ahmed Mohamed Abdalla Financial Management Specialist Alejandro Welch Team Member Dmitry Chugunov Team Member Tamene Tiruneh Matebe Environmental Specialist Magid Salah Team Member Samuel Lule Demsash Social Specialist Supervision/ICR Omer Nasir Elseed, Lianqin Wang Task Team Leader(s) Safaa M H Alburai, Anjani Kumar, Ayalew Kebede Belew Procurement Specialist(s) Fatima Mohamed Elhag Hamed Financial Management Specialist Stephen Diero Amayo Financial Management Specialist Sibani Karki Social Specialist Samuel Lule Demsash Social Specialist Magid Salah Team Member Tamene Tiruneh Matebe Environmental Specialist Dmitry Chugunov Team Member Aimnn Mohamed Hassan Procurement Team Jorge Luis Alva-Luperdi Team Member Vicente A. Garcia Moreno Team Member Page 33 of 41 The World Bank Sudan Education COVID-19 Response (P174220) Jean Okolla Owino Team Member Alejandro Welch Team Member B. STAFF TIME AND COST Staff Time and Cost Stage of Project Cycle No. of staff weeks US$ (including travel and consultant costs) Preparation FY21 6.900 30,288.90 FY22 16.700 56,345.80 Total 23.60 86,634.70 Supervision/ICR FY21 28.550 97,638.32 FY22 29.450 165,501.02 Total 58.00 263,139.34 Page 34 of 41 The World Bank Sudan Education COVID-19 Response (P174220) ANNEX 3. PROJECT COST BY COMPONENT Amount at Approval Actual at Project Percentage of Approval Components (US$M) Closing (US$M) (%) Supporting learning continuity at the basic education level during the 6.93 2.63 37.95% COVID-19 pandemic and school system shutdown Supporting safe transition back to school during 3.27 1.62 49.49% recovery Program coordination and 0.45 0.45 100.00% management Total 10.65 4.70 44.12% Page 35 of 41 The World Bank Sudan Education COVID-19 Response (P174220) ANNEX 4. EFFICIENCY ANALYSIS 1. The economic analysis for the Sudan Education COVID-19 Response Project (P174220) addresses the expected impacts of the economic crisis on the education sector and evaluates the benefits and costs associated with the project. The economic analysis shows (a) the impact on internal efficiency and cost savings, or internal efficiency gains, such as the government budget savings due to the reduction of “inefficient” spending on students that drop out; and (b) the impact of completion probabilities in basic education, or external efficiency gains, such as direct private returns to schooling. “Inefficient” spending is defined as the money that the government spends through teacher salaries and other education-related items, such as goods and services for schools, or on students who repeat grades or drop out before completing the basic education cycle. Economic Rationale for Public Investment in Sustaining Basic Education Enrollment in Sudan 2. The rationale for public sector financing of basic education is well established. Investments under the project were to strengthen efficiency and equity at the basic education level overall, likely contributing to improved learning outcomes at the school level. The pressing needs and challenges for both improved efficiency and equity warrant public sector support consistent with Sudan’s commitment to providing universal primary/basic education of good quality to all children. 3. Investment in basic education in Sudan is justified by the low Net Enrollment Ratio (NER) of 69 percent, low completion rates (55 percent),17 and weak learning levels among enrolled students. The National Learning Assessment (NLA) conducted in all 18 states of Sudan found that grade 3 students performed very poorly. Around 40 percent of students are not able to read a single word in their native language. In addition, Sudan has one of the highest rates of out-of-school children (OOSC) in the Sub-Saharan Africa region, with more than three million school-age children not enrolled in school. This suggests that there is not only a large proportion of school-age children out of school but even when in school, many students are not learning. The Project’s Development Impact 4. The project aimed to sustain enrollment in public basic schools during the economic crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. The provision of school grants under the project was aimed at promoting better retention of students through incentivizing schools to make better use of available resources. Gains in internal efficiency are achieved through the lower cost to the government of providing basic education: as fewer students fail and repeat grades or drop out, the government spends fewer resources. 5. In addition, the project interventions were designed to affect the probability of a child completing primary education and transitioning to the secondary level. This, in turn, will yield gains in labor earnings measured over the course of a standard working life. The key project’s economic impact is, therefore, estimated as the incremental benefit accruing to a representative child as the result of effects induced by the program’s interventions. 17Authors’ estimates based on the data from Sudan Annual School Census 2018/19 and population projections from the Census Bureau of Sudan. Page 36 of 41 The World Bank Sudan Education COVID-19 Response (P174220) Financial and Economic Analysis 6. The project is likely to yield positive results on the education quality in the medium run as it: (a) targeted an area of intervention — basic education — that is critical for long-term school performance, as measured by standardized assessment; (b) supported and complemented the government’s reforms in basic education; and (c) provided additional instrumental funding to support both cost-effective and well-targeted basic education programs. 7. The project analysis was therefore restricted to the quantifiable economic impact and benefits. These comprise: (a) impact on internal efficiency estimates and cost savings, or internal efficiency gains, such as government budget savings due to the reduction of inefficient expenditures on students that drop out; and (b) impact of completion probabilities in basic education, or external efficiency gains, such as direct private returns to schooling. 8. The importance of schooling and learning to economic growth and development is well documented.18 Education is central to achieving the goals of eliminating extreme poverty and boosting shared prosperity. High levels of education are often associated with improved economic opportunities, including improved access to jobs and higher lifetime wages. Education is also correlated with healthier life choices, increased voice and agency, and the ability to make decisions and act on them. At the country level, economic benefits include increased rates of economic growth through gains in productivity and a greater capacity to adopt new technologies. But education is not only instrumental in promoting development; it is also by itself an end goal of development. Impact on Internal Efficiency Estimates and Cost Savings 9. Internal efficiencies of Sudan’s education system. Government benefits are estimated in terms of reduced inefficient public spending as a result of improved internal efficiency in Sudan ’s education system. The project examined the evolution of inefficient government spending on schools that benefited from receiving school improvement grants. 10. The project intended to sustain enrollment in public schools in Sudan , which is likely to lead to improved internal efficiency of basic education by preventing children from dropping out, thereby increasing retention rates between grades 1 and 8. 11. The current economic analysis presents estimates of the efficiency gains in basic education between 2019 and 2021, based on UN population projections of enrollment estimates, average values from recent years for intake into grade 1 of basic education (from the Sudan Annual School Census) relative to population and recent trends in promotion and retention in each grade of basic school. The analysis employs the same projections as the current Education Sector Strategy Plan, including for GDP growth (IMF/World Bank), and the share of domestic resources spent on education (0.5 percentage points, an annual increase from 9.8 percent in 2017/18). 18For more information, see P. Aghion, L. Boustan, C. Hoxby, and J. Vandenbussche (2009); E.A. Hanushek and L. Woessmann (2015); F. Rossi (2018); and P. Balart, M. Oosterveen, M. and D. Webbink (2018). Page 37 of 41 The World Bank Sudan Education COVID-19 Response (P174220) 12. Gains from improved internal efficiency show that the project succeeded in achieving its objective of sustaining enrollment in public schools: the number of students increased from 5.40 million in 2019 (baseline) to 5.58 million in 2021 (end line). The analysis is built on the assumption that survival and repetition rates remained unchanged over the course of the project. 13. The potential change in inefficient government spending is explored throughout the project’s implementation. The analysis assumes that without the project, a share of students currently enrolled in basic education would have dropped out and not completed primary education. Three different scenarios were considered as a result of the economic crisis: 15 percent, 10 percent, and 5 percent of students in basic education who dropped out. These scenarios were compared to the actual case in which the project activities resulted in a 3 percent increase in the student enrollment from 5.40 million in 2018/19 to 5.58 million in 2020/21, without changes in the current completion rates. 14. The following formula is used to estimate inefficient spending : ∗ = ∑ ( ) ∗ , = where is the dropout rate in grade in year in target schools; is the number of students enrolled in grade in year ; is the government spending per student in year . 15. According to the analysis results, before the project started, the share of inefficient public spending in public schools was equivalent to 27.6 percent of overall public expenditures in education in Sudan. Between 2018/19 and 2020/21, the share of inefficient government spending decreased by 2.7 percentage points. 16. Inefficient public spending is estimated by multiplying the unit cost in basic education by the number of repeaters and those students that drop out from school. ASC data were employed from five consecutive years (2015–2019) to estimate between-grade promotion, repetition, and dropout rates. According to the Salary Scale of Civil Servants in Sudan, the average teacher salary is equivalent to SDG 15,721 per month. The teacher wage bill constitutes, on average, 90 percent of overall public spending in education (Sudan Education Sector Analysis 2019). Thus, the unit cost is estimated based on the number of basic public school teachers and the number of students studying there. 17. According to the estimates, inefficient public spending in Sudan could decrease by up to 19 percent as the result of the project (under scenario 1 “high”) if a comparison is made between the government spending with and without the project. In addition, if the project prevented just 5 percent of students in basic education from dropping out of school, the government savings would be equivalent to US$9.9 million (table A4.1). Page 38 of 41 The World Bank Sudan Education COVID-19 Response (P174220) Table A4.1. Estimated government savings Assumption: % of students in Number of Government Reduction in basic education that would students retained savings inefficient drop out without the project in schools (million US$) spending Scenario 1 15 861,219 29.6 19.1% Scenario 2 10 574,146 19.7 13.6% Scenario 3 5 287,073 9.9 7.3% Source: Authors’ estimations. Impact on External Efficiency Estimates and Cost-Benefit Analysis 18. The project supported human capital development to mitigate the adverse effects of economic crises on education outcomes. As the nature of work evolves in response to rapid technological change, investing properly in human capital is considered not only desirable but necessary in the pursuit of economic development and wealth. To illustrate this concept, the World Bank developed the Human Capital Index (HCI), which measures the impact of underinvesting in human capital on the productivity of the next generation of workers. HCI is defined as the amount of human capital that a child born today can expect to achieve in view of the risks of poor health and poor education currently prevailing in the country where that child lives. 19. Education is a major component of the HCI, and Africa is the region of the world with the highest economic returns to education. The key drivers of these returns are the quality of education and the average years of schooling that a child may benefit from. Analyses of HCI among developing countries show that Sudan is underinvesting in the future productivity of its citizens. A child born in Sudan today will be only 38 percent as productive when she grows up as she could be if she enjoyed complete education and full health (World Bank Human Capital Index 2020). A child born today in Sudan is expected to complete only 7.3 years of education by age 18, compared to a regional average of 8.1 years. Because of the low levels of learning achievement in Sudan, this is only equivalent to 4.4 years of learning, with 2.9 years considered lost due to the poor quality of education. Sudan is ranked among the countries in the lowest quartile of the HCI distribution, with an index slightly lower than the average for the Sub-Saharan Africa region. The current economic crisis in Sudan represents a risk to any gains associated with education and, therefore, this project is designed to help mitigate those risks. 20. Private returns to education are high in Sub-Saharan Africa, where one additional year of education (primary through higher education) represents on average a 12.4 percent increase in expected income. These returns also increase with education level. For higher education, the regional average is 21.0 percent, while the returns to primary and secondary education are 14.4 percent and 10.6 percent, respectively. 21. Beneficiaries of this project include 5.58 million students in public basic schools, approximately 33,000 teachers, and parents and other key stakeholders. The main goal of the project was to sustain enrollment and ensure learning continuity. The expected positive outcomes are, therefore, higher retention rates, as the economic crisis might increase dropouts, particularly among children of lower- income households and young girls. Page 39 of 41 The World Bank Sudan Education COVID-19 Response (P174220) 22. Costs are equivalent to the total cost of the project, which disbursed US$10.65 million inclusive of Grant Agent supervision fees over a period of 18 months. Three different scenarios were considered as a result of the economic crisis: 15 percent, 10 percent, and 5 percent of students in basic education who would drop out without the project. 23. In Sudan, basic education lasts eight years, from ages 6 to 13. It was assumed that students would join the labor market the year after graduating and work for 35 years. The unemployment rate for the labor force was taken into account with basic education reported by the International Labor Organization (ILO). The discount rate used to calculate the present value of costs and benefits was 8 percent. 24. The economic analysis confirms the economic rationale of the project, with Net Present Value (NPV) ranging from US$10.3 million to US$52.1 million, and Internal Rate of Return (IRR) between 14 percent and 32 percent.19 The table below (table A4.2) provides the economic evaluation under the three different scenarios considered. However, it is essential to emphasize that they do not exhaust all the possibilities under the uncertainty of the current economic crisis. Table A4.2. Estimated benefits of the project Assumption: % of students in Number of NPV IRR basic education who would students retained drop out without the project in schools Scenario 1 15 861,219 US$ 52,136,896 32% Scenario 2 10 574,146 US$ 31,207,931 24% Scenario 3 5 287,073 US$ 10,278,965 14% Source: Authors’ estimations. 19The range of estimated economic benefits is wider than the range of NPVs computed during the project design stage mainly due to a greater uncertainty in future earnings brought on by the pandemic. (The NPV ranged between US$15.2 million and US$45.5 million during the project design stage.) Page 40 of 41 The World Bank Sudan Education COVID-19 Response (P174220) ANNEX 5. BORROWER, CO-FINANCIER AND OTHER PARTNER/STAKEHOLDER COMMENTS 1. Due to OP 7.30, the ICR was not shared with the Client for comments. Page 41 of 41