Results from Myanmar Firm Monitoring Survey Round 9 conducted in October 2021 High-level findings: • Below Capacity: Despite a 4-fold decrease in firms reporting temporary closure compared to August 2021, average operating capacity of firms remained suppressed at only 57 percent. • Supply Disruptions: Disruptions to the supply of inputs and raw materials remained a major concern for more than half of firms. • Depreciation Impact: 64 percent of firms reported that the depreciation of the Myanmar kyat against the US dollar materially impacted their operations and performance. • Bleak outlook: The share of firms not expecting to recover to pre-February levels in next 6 months increased from 32 percent in June 2021 to 41 percent in October 2021. Note: The latest survey was administered between October 13, 2021 and November 8, 2021 and covered a nationally representative sample of 500 firms. The figures below show the results of Round 7 (June 2021), Round 8 (August 2021), and Round 9 (October 2021). Round 9 includes 294 of the same firms that were surveyed in Round 8. Due to attrition, the remaining firms have been substituted to meet sample needs. October 2021 survey results indicate that firms’ business performance and expectations remained weak Figure 1: Business environment remained vulnerable 74% 66% 63% 62% 59% 57% 55% 51% 46% 41% 36% 32% Average profit decline* Average operating capacity* Disruption of the supply of Expecting not to recover inputs and raw materials** within 6 months Jun-21 Aug-21 Oct-21 Note: * Firms were asked to report about the last completed month. **Question is modified for October 2021. For June and August 2021, firms were asked to report whether they experienced the disruptions since February 2021, but for October 2021, firms were asked to report whether they experienced the disruptions in the last completed month. Source: The World Bank’s Firm Survey Round 9 Results from the Myanmar firm survey round 9 indicate that the business environment remained vulnerable (Figure 1). In October 2021, firms reported that profit declined by an average of 66 percent compared to January 2021 – an improvement of 8 percentage points compared to August 2021. However, this finding was 7 percentage points worse than that observed in June 2021. This implies that firms’ performance— in terms of profitability—slightly recovered from the impacts of COVID-19. However, firms’ operating capacity and share of firms experiencing disruptions of the supply of inputs and raw materials remained as concerns for firms in October 2021 as compared with August 2021. Given Myanmar’s reliance on imports for raw materials and inputs, supply chain disruptions could have a material impact on agricultural and manufacturing firms. Consistent with that, both agricultural and manufacturing sectors saw 65 percent of their firms experiencing disruptions in October 2021 – 14-percentage points higher than the national average. As there were no significant improvements in the business conditions, the number of firms not expecting to recover to pre-February levels in the next 6 months has increased since June 2021. Operational Status Temporary closures significantly declined, but firms’ operating capacity declined further and remained well below full capacity As COVID-19 cases eased, a rapid decline in temporary closures was observed. In October 2021, 11 percent of firms temporarily closed – four times less than that observed in August 2021 and on parity with that observed in June 2021. This is also consistent with the Google mobility data, where Myanmar’s workplace mobility in October 2021 was 15 percentage points higher – compared to that observed in August 2021.1 The significant decline in temporary closures was primarily driven by manufacturing and service sectors with about two-third of manufacturing and service firms reporting temporary closures (Figure 2). A 24-percentage point decrease in temporary closures of retail and wholesale firms between August and October was consistent with Google retail and recreation mobility, and grocery and pharmacy mobility indicators, both of which increased by 21-percentage points over the same period. By firm size, large firms continued to be the least affected by temporary closures (Figure 3). Figure 2: Share of firms reporting temporary Figure 3: Share of firms reporting temporary closures closures – by sector – by firm size 60% 60% 49% 44% 44% 35% 36% 31% 21% 16% 17% 16% 14% 14% 14% 11% 11% 11% 9% 11% 11% 9% 9% 7% 6% 5% 3% 3% 3% 0% Agriculture Manufacturing Retail and Service Total Micro (1-4) Small (5-19) Medium (20- Large (>99) Total wholesale 99) Jun-21 Aug-21 Oct-21 Jun-21 Aug-21 Oct-21 Source: The World Bank’s Firm Survey Round 9 Despite a significant share of firms reopening, firms’ operating capacity continued to decline. In October 2021, the firms that were open operated at only 57 percent of their capacity – 5 percentage points lower than that observed in August 2021. This may be attributable to a further deteriorating security issue since August 2021 - resulting in limited operation hours, especially for manufacturing firms. The October result confirmed this with manufacturing firms operating with 53 percent of their full capacity, which was the lowest compared to other sectors (Figure 4). Unlike other sectors, the operating capacity of service firms increased by 12 percentage points compared to June 2021. This could be partly attributable to the nature of service firms – allowing more flexible working arrangements such as remote and flexible work, compared with other firms where operating hours can be impacted by security issues. By firm size, larger firms’ operating capacity increased 1 Google Mobility Data. compared to June 2021. Despite being far from returning to their full operating capacity, large and medium firms’ capacities increased by 24 and 3 percentage points respectively in October 2021 as compared to June 2021 (Figure 5). On the other hand, smaller firms’ capacity continued to decline. Figure 4: Average operating capacity – by sector Figure 5: Average operating capacity – by firm size 66% 66% 67% 67% 71% 63% 63% 62% 66% 66% 66% 65% 59% 61% 63%62% 57% 58% 56% 57% 58% 54%53% 57% 57% 57% 57% 51% 54% 47% Agriculture Manufacturing Retail and Service Total Micro (1-4) Small (5-19) Medium (20- Large (>99) Total wholesale 99) Jun-21 Aug-21 Oct-21 Jun-21 Aug-21 Oct-21 Note: Firms were asked to report about the last completed month. Source: The World Bank’s Firm Survey Round 9 As firms’ temporary closures declined, positive Figure 6: Share of firms reporting labor impacts employment impacts were observed (Error! 14% 14%14% Reference source not found.). In October 2021, 8 13% percent of firms reported hiring – 6 percentage 11% points higher than that observed in June 2021. The 9% 8% share of firms reporting layoffs declined to 6 6% 6% percent. As the majority of firms were open, firms 5% 5% 5% 4% granting unpaid leave declined by 2 percent, and 2% 2% firms reducing labor hours also declined by 11 percent. Moreover, 4 percent of firms reduced salaries, wages or benefits representing a one Hiring Laying off Granting unpaid Reducing salary, Reducing hours leave wages or benefits percentage point decrease compared to August 2021. Jun-21 Aug-21 Oct-21 Note: Firms were asked to report about the last completed month. Business performance Source: The World Bank’s Firm Survey Round 9 Business performance weakened significantly in the aftermath of the COVID-19 third wave Figure 7: Share of firms reporting sales decline Figure 8: Share of firms reporting sales decline compared to January 2021 – by firm size compared to January 2021 – by region 90% 92% 92% 89% 82% 83% 82% 78%80% 78% 81% 80% 79%81% 79% 77% 79%82% 80% 72% 70% 65% 60% 60% 55% 55% 57% 54% 57% 50% 51% 48% 40% Micro (1-4) Small (5-19) Medium (20-99) Large (>99) Total Yangon Mandalay Chin and Dry Delta and Hilly Zone Total Zone Coastal Lowland Jun-21 Aug-21 Oct-21 Jun-21 Aug-21 Oct-21 Note: Firms were asked to report about the last completed month. Source: The World Bank’s Firm Survey Round 9 Sales decline continued for the majority of firms in October 2021. Compared to their sales in January 2021, 82 percent of firms experienced a decline in October 2021, slightly higher than 80 percent of firms reporting sales decline in August 2021. Differences among different firm sizes and regions were observed. In October 2021, the share of medium and large firms reporting sales declines significantly increased by 20 percentage points and 41 percentage points respectively (Figure 7) while the share of small firms experiencing declines in sales decreased by 12 percentage points, compared to August 2021. Likewise, the share of firms experiencing sales decline in the Chin and Dry Zone significantly increased by 10 percentage points while the share of firms experiencing sales decline in Mandalay decreased by 27 percentage points (Figure 8). In the Chin and Dry Zone, the share of firms experiencing sales decline has increased significantly since June 2021, and this could be in part attributable to the increased intensity of conflict in the region. Rising costs were a major reason for firms Figure 9: Share of firms reporting major reasons for experiencing disruptions of intermediate disruptions of intermediate materials or inputs materials or inputs (Figure 9). In October Cost 95% 73% 2021, 95 percent of firms experienced an increased 77% increase in costs – 22 percentage points higher 72% than that observed in August 2021. On average, Not 75% available firms experienced a 45 percent increase in the 61% cost of raw materials and inputs as compared to 23% the average cost in the past 3 months. They Lower quality 18% 11% further experienced a 53 percent increase in the cost of raw materials and inputs as compared to 3% January 2021. This could suggest that an increase Others 9% 15% in input prices were more pronounced recently – possibly associated with the recent impacts of Oct-21 Aug-21 Jun-21 the Myanmar kyat depreciation. The findings further complement the purchasing manager Source: The World Bank’s Firm Survey Round 9 index (PMI) of Myanmar manufacturing firms – which increased from a PMI input price index of 67 in August to 86.9 in October 2021, well above from the benchmark 50 – showing inflation since the previous month.2 The sharp depreciation in the exchange rate and the associated increase in fuel and transportation costs 2 IHS Markit Myanmar manufacturing PMI. contributed to a sharp increase in input prices in October 2021. Besides cost, non-availability of inputs and raw materials was also a major challenge for manufacturing firms with 72 percent of firms reporting non-availability. Figure 10: Share of firms reporting impacts of Figure 11: Share of firms reporting impact of Myanmar Myanmar Kyat depreciation and limited access to Kyat depreciation against US dollar – by region foreign currencies 81% 69% Depreciation of Myanmar Kyat 64% 64% 59% against US dollar 53% 53% Depreciation of Myanmar Kyat against foreign currencies other than 41% US dollar Limited access to US dollar 19% Yangon Mandalay Chin and Dry Delta and Hilly Zone Total Limited access to foreign currencies Zone Coastal 17% other than US dollar Lowland Source: The World Bank’s Firm Survey Round 9 The depreciation of the Myanmar kyat against the US dollar have become a concern for firms. Two- thirds of firms reported that the depreciation of the kyat against the US dollar adversely affected their operations and performance (Figure 10). Among firms reporting this impact, 81 percent of firms in Yangon felt the impacts -17 percentage points higher than the national average (Figure 11). Along with depreciation against the US dollar impacts, 41 percent of firms reported impacts associated with the depreciation of the kyat against other foreign currencies other than US dollar. Given Myanmar’s reliance upon imports for inputs and raw materials, the kyat’s depreciation has become an inflationary force resulting in an increase in input and output prices for firms. This also lowers consumer spending power further impacting domestic spending. Figure 12: Share of firms reporting increase in prices Figure 13: Share of firms reporting increase in prices of their products or services since July 2021 – by of their products or services since July 2021 – by firm sector size 52% 52% 60% 44% 42% 49% 41% 43% 42% 24% Agriculture Manufacturing Retail and Service Total Micro (1-4) Small (5-19) Medium (20-99) Large (>99) Total wholesale Source: The World Bank’s Firm Survey Round 9 With supply chain and financial sector related disruptions, 42 percent of firms reported increases in prices of their products or services since July 2021. This finding complements PMI outprice prices change – from 57.6 in July to 63.8 in October, indicating an output price increase. Despite a significant share of firms experiencing supply chain disruptions, agricultural firms seemed to absorb the increase in input prices more than firms in other sectors – with only 24 percent of firms reporting an increase in prices of their products since July 2021, a full 18 percentage points lower than the national average (Figure 12). On the other hand, more than half of firms in the retail and wholesale, and service sectors have increased prices since July 2021. By firm size, the share of larger firms that have increased prices of products or services were higher than those of micro and small firms (Figure 13). This suggests that larger firms can pass through cost increases to customers more easily than smaller firms, or that there is more competition among smaller firms offering similar products or services. Among those firms that increased prices between July and October 2021, August was the most common month that firms (with 45 percent) decided to increase prices - with the principal reason as cited by 95 percent of firms being to cover higher costs due to an increase in intermediate and input prices. This resulted in an average price increase of 23 percent between July 2021 and October 2021. Besides an increase in prices of inputs and raw materials, the kyat’s depreciation against the US dollar could influence firms’ decision to increase their prices. Adaptations Reducing number of staffs and operation hours were planned adjustments for firms if the current business situation does not improve A shift in planned adjustments was Figure 14: Share of firms reporting adjustment plan if the observed in October 2021 (Figure 14). situation does not improve in next 3 months Layoffs were the most reported adjustment that Reduce number of staffs 17% 19% firms would adopt if the business situation did 19% Reduce operation hours 16% not improve in next three months (reported by 14% 17 percent of firms), followed by reducing Source cheaper inputs or raw materials 14% operation hours (reported by 16 percent of Shift to new business activities unrelated to current core business 14% 21% firms) and sourcing cheaper inputs or raw Temporarily close the business 24% 12% materials (reported by 14 percent of firms). Borrow money to cover cost 20% While temporary closures were the most 12% 14% reported adjustment mechanism that firms Reduce salaries 11% would adopt reported in August 2021, the share Permanently close the business 8% 6% of firms reporting this adjustment as a major Aug-21 Oct-21 plan halved from 24 percent in August 2021 to Source: The World Bank’s Firm Survey Round 9 12 percent in October 2021. Overall, if the current busines situation does not improve, firms are likely to adjust their business operations by reducing headcount and trimmed operating hours instead of temporary cease operations – implying that firms prefer to cut their costs in ways, which may likely result in output reduction to stay in business rather than close their businesses temporarily (which would be more costly for firms). Business expectations Business expectations remained bleak With a deteriorating business environment, Figure 15: Firms’ expectations remained bleak firms’ expectations remained bleak for the future. In October 2021, 54 percent of firms 57% were confident to remain in business for the next 52% 54% 41% month, a 2 percentage points increase compared 32% 36% to August 2021, but a 3-percentage points 22% 24% 25% decrease compared to June (Figure 15). Firms expecting to fall in arrears in the next 3 months continued to increase since June 2021, from 22 percent in June, 24 percent in August to 25 -15% -10% percent in October 2021. In addition, 41 percent Confident to remain Fall in arrears in next Expecting not to -23% Average sales of firms expected not to recover to levels seen in business for the 3 months recover within 6 expectation in next 3 next month months months before February 2021 within the next 6 months, Jun-20 Aug-21 Oct-21 an increase of 5-percentage points from August 2021 and 9-percentage points from June 2021. Source: The World Bank’s Firm Survey Round 9 Firms reported an expectation that sales would decline by an average of 10 percent in the next 3 months compared to same period last year. Tax payments and regulatory constraints Tax payments declined and regulatory burdens increased Tax payments and ease of regulatory Figure 16: Average tax payment decrease and share of firms requirements have declined since reporting tax payment and public service delivery February 2021 (Figure 16). Only 18 percent 65% of firms reported that they paid taxes owed to authorities in the past 6 months (before 39% October 2021), 34 percentage points lower 36% 34% compared to that in the 6 months prior to February 2021, possibly attributable to tax resistance in response to the coup. Among firms reporting a decrease in tax payment in this year, average tax payments declined by 65 Average tax payment Worsened ease of Worsened ease of Decrease in the share percent as compared to last year. Besides decrease compared to taxes filing and customs clearance of firms paying taxes decline in tax payments, increased regulatory last year, among the payment since and payment since from the past 6 firms reporting a February 2021 February 2021 months before burdens was also reported. Since February decrease in tax February 2021 to the 2021, 39 percent of firms experienced payment* past 6 months before October 2021 worsened ease of filing taxes and payment, and 36 percent of firms experienced worsened ease Note: *Indicator reported average tax payment decrease, and the rest indicators reported share of firms. of customs clearance and customs payment. Source: The World Bank’s Firm Survey Round 9 Appendix 1: Methodology The World Bank contracted Thura Swiss, a research and consulting firm, to conduct High-Frequency Phone Survey (HFPS) for impacts of recent developments on firms in Myanmar. The HFPS for firms is a multi-topic and multi-round survey designed collect information on operational impacts, sales impacts, financial impacts, resilience, government policy and adjustment mechanisms. The questionnaire will be adapted as situation in Myanmar evolves. In this survey, the sample frame is all firms in Myanmar, and this survey used the sample frame based on two sources. The first source is Myanmar Business Survey (MBS) 2015, which included 14,331 businesses representing 126,928 businesses nationally. However, the MBS survey did not cover agriculture and financial firms. Since the HFPS intends to cover all sectors across Myanmar, the firm list provided by Thura Swiss is used to have a sampling frame for agricultural and financial firms. Combining these two sources, the sampling frame used in this survey covered 169,964 firms. From this frame, 500 firms were randomly selected based on three stratum – geographical zone3, industry and firm size. The distribution of samples by sector, firm size, industry and zone are in Table 1, Table 2, Table 3 and Table 4. To allow interference from sample to population, the responses are weighted using inverse probability weights. The design of the questionnaire was based on existing enterprise surveys such as the World Bank Enterprise Survey (ES), FCI’s Business Pulse Survey, the ES COVID-19 survey, and experience of the World Bank team. The questions were designed to assess operational impacts, sales impacts and financial impacts that firms experienced due to recent developments. In addition, the questionnaire also explored resilience of firms and adjustment mechanisms that they have taken. Table 1: Sample distribution by sector Sector Number of firms Share of firms Agriculture 76 15% Manufacturing 167 33% Retail and wholesale 88 18% Service 169 34% Total 500 100% Table 2: Sample distribution by firm size Firm size Number of firms Share of firms Micro (1-4) 204 41% Small (5-19) 191 38% Medium (20-99) 84 17% Large (>99) 21 4% Total 500 100% 3 States and regions are grouped into zones based on their economic and geographic characteristics. Two of the five zones are single regions, Yangon and Mandalay. The Hilly Zone includes the states of Kachin, Kayah, and Shan. The Delta and Coastal Lowland Zone includes Ayeyarwaddy region, Rakhine region, Mon state, Bago region, Tanintharyi region, and Kayin state. Chin and the Dry Zone includes Chin state, Sagaing region, Magwe region, and Nay Pyi Taw. Table 3: Sample distribution by industry Industry Number of firms Share of firms Agriculture and Aquaculture 76 15% Food and Beverage Products 84 17% Textiles and Garments 22 4% Other Manufacturing 61 12% Retail and Wholesale 88 18% Construction 15 3% Accommodation 20 4% Food and Beverage Services 62 12% Financial Services 8 2% Information Technology and Communication 10 2% Health and Pharmaceutical Services 11 2% Other Services 43 9% Total 500 100% Table 4: Sample distribution by ecological zone Geographical zone Number of firms Share of firms Yangon 144 29% Mandalay 98 20% Chin and Dry Zone 80 16% Delta and Coastal Lowland 93 19% Hilly Zone 85 17% Total 500 100% Appendix 2: Operational Status Table 5: Current operational status of firms – by share of firms Sector Open Temporarily closed Agriculture 89% 3% Manufacturing 78% 17% Retail and wholesale 84% 11% Service 86% 14% Industry Agriculture and Aquaculture 89% 3% Food and Beverage Products 78% 17% Textiles and Garments 93% 4% Other Manufacturing 78% 18% Retail and Wholesale 84% 11% Construction 95% 5% Accommodation 82% 18% Food and Beverage Services 84% 16% Financial Services 49% 51% Information Technology and Communication 100% 0% Health and Pharmaceutical Services 94% 6% Other Services 89% 9% Firm size Micro (1-4) 86% 9% Small (5-19) 81% 14% Medium (20-99) 91% 9% Large (>99) 88% 3% Ecological zone Yangon 91% 7% Mandalay 78% 15% Chin and Dry Zone 78% 13% Delta and Coastal Lowland 88% 11% Hilly Zone 84% 9% Ownership by gender Fully female owned 86% 14% Fully male owned 81% 12% Partially female owned 96% 2% Total 84% 11% Sample Size 406 60 Table 6: Average weeks closed and expected average weeks to resume operation for firms that were temporarily closed Sector Average weeks closed Average weeks to be Resumed Agriculture 16 Manufacturing 19 3 Retail and wholesale 10 2 Service 18 9 Industry Agriculture and Aquaculture 16 Food and Beverage Products 14 3 Textiles and Garments 36 Other Manufacturing 25 2 Retail and Wholesale 10 2 Construction 8 Accommodation 14 Food and Beverage Services 16 9 Financial Services 14 Information Technology and Communication Health and Pharmaceutical Services 2 Other Services 26 Firm size Micro (1-4) 16 3 Small (5-19) 16 3 Medium (20-99) 23 4 Large (>99) 4 Ecological zone Yangon 22 2 Mandalay 27 2 Chin and Dry Zone 12 4 Delta and Coastal Lowland 13 4 Hilly Zone 14 4 Ownership by gender Fully female owned 15 2 Fully male owned 17 3 Partially female owned 21 4 Total 17 3 Appendix 3: Business Performance Table 7: Impacts of the coup on firm operations – by share of firms Disruptions of Reduction in Reduction in supply of inputs Cash flow Reduction in workforce due to Filed for insolvency Sector sales or raw materials shortages access to credit layoff or bankruptcy Agriculture 78% 65% 63% 15% 14% 11% Manufacturing 91% 65% 55% 11% 14% 6% Retail and wholesale 91% 34% 48% 26% 16% 13% Service 86% 33% 36% 10% 25% 11% Industry Agriculture and Aquaculture 78% 65% 63% 15% 14% 11% Food and Beverage Products 92% 68% 60% 7% 9% 6% Textiles and Garments 80% 67% 63% 29% 26% 8% Other Manufacturing 90% 61% 46% 14% 19% 5% Retail and Wholesale 91% 34% 48% 26% 16% 13% Construction 80% 42% 44% 10% 5% 0% Accommodation 55% 38% 25% 5% 20% 8% Food and Beverage Services 91% 41% 41% 13% 20% 16% Financial Services 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Information Technology and Communication 100% 35% 47% 0% 13% 13% Health and Pharmaceutical Services 50% 41% 12% 0% 0% 0% Other Services 79% 19% 30% 7% 34% 5% Firm size Micro (1-4) 88% 53% 54% 9% 12% 10% Small (5-19) 83% 46% 46% 26% 24% 12% Medium (20-99) 88% 57% 55% 32% 15% 7% Large (>99) 70% 49% 31% 15% 15% 7% Ecological zone Yangon 90% 52% 46% 25% 18% 15% Mandalay 87% 44% 36% 19% 16% 12% Chin and Dry Zone 95% 67% 61% 17% 25% 10% Delta and Coastal Lowland 83% 39% 49% 8% 14% 9% Hilly Zone 77% 61% 59% 20% 9% 9% Ownership by gender Fully female owned 89% 45% 45% 18% 22% 10% Fully male owned 86% 53% 52% 14% 15% 10% Partially female owned 85% 51% 54% 18% 18% 12% Total 86% 51% 51% 16% 16% 10% Sample Size 361 220 194 71 77 50 Table 8: Impacts of the coup on firm operations – by share of firms Difficulty making Difficulty making Difficulty making Limited internet payments on loans payments to suppliers payments to suppliers access impacting Damage to any and other business and employees due to and employees due to business business assets Sector credits? reduced revenue limited bank operation or location Agriculture 20% 24% 16% 13% 10% Manufacturing 8% 41% 36% 23% 3% Retail and wholesale 13% 31% 40% 21% 7% Service 16% 26% 23% 28% 8% Industry Agriculture and Aquaculture 20% 24% 16% 13% 10% Food and Beverage Products 10% 48% 44% 18% 2% Textiles and Garments 34% 31% 43% 36% 21% Other Manufacturing 2% 32% 23% 27% 3% Retail and Wholesale 13% 31% 40% 21% 7% Construction 10% 47% 42% 36% 11% Accommodation 13% 21% 32% 38% 7% Food and Beverage Services 23% 33% 26% 22% 10% Financial Services 0% 0% 0% 46% 0% Information Technology and Communication 13% 35% 37% 37% 0% Health and Pharmaceutical Services 0% 6% 6% 0% 6% Other Services 7% 15% 17% 37% 5% Firm size Micro (1-4) 12% 31% 24% 17% 5% Small (5-19) 19% 30% 36% 28% 11% Medium (20-99) 17% 29% 46% 27% 11% Large (>99) 15% 7% 31% 8% 0% Ecological zone Yangon 19% 33% 49% 30% 6% Mandalay 21% 30% 26% 24% 6% Chin and Dry Zone 9% 16% 15% 11% 3% Delta and Coastal Lowland 8% 41% 25% 20% 5% Hilly Zone 28% 24% 39% 26% 18% Ownership by gender Fully female owned 16% 40% 40% 28% 5% Fully male owned 13% 30% 28% 20% 7% Partially female owned 15% 24% 18% 15% 9% Total 14% 30% 28% 20% 7% Sample Size 75 143 151 101 34 Table 9: Among the firms reporting disruptions of supply in inputs, major reasons for the firms experiencing shortage of inputs – by share of firms Sector Not available Cost increased Lower quality Agriculture 76% 96% 27% Manufacturing 73% 96% 18% Retail and wholesale 66% 93% 15% Service 67% 95% 33% Industry Agriculture and Aquaculture 76% 96% 27% Food and Beverage Products 74% 99% 13% Textiles and Garments 79% 93% 42% Other Manufacturing 70% 92% 20% Retail and Wholesale 66% 93% 15% Construction 62% 76% 12% Accommodation 100% 100% 0% Food and Beverage Services 63% 97% 33% Financial Services Information Technology and Communication 70% 70% 30% Health and Pharmaceutical Services 100% 100% 80% Other Services 74% 86% 34% Firm size Micro (1-4) 70% 98% 26% Small (5-19) 78% 90% 18% Medium (20-99) 49% 96% 6% Large (>99) 83% 81% 0% Ecological zone Yangon 84% 88% 19% Mandalay 52% 100% 19% Chin and Dry Zone 76% 98% 35% Delta and Coastal Lowland 63% 91% 17% Hilly Zone 83% 99% 18% Ownership by gender Fully female owned 76% 99% 24% Fully male owned 68% 94% 23% Partially female owned 80% 95% 21% Total 72% 95% 23% Sample Size 161 201 41 Table 10: Average intermediate and inputs price increase compared to past 3 months and January 2021, among the firms experiencing a cost increase Compared to past 3 Compared to January, Sector months 2021 Agriculture 46% 57% Manufacturing 43% 46% Retail and wholesale 45% 53% Service 47% 56% Industry Agriculture and Aquaculture 46% 57% Food and Beverage Products 39% 44% Textiles and Garments 45% 50% Other Manufacturing 49% 49% Retail and Wholesale 45% 53% Construction 55% 59% Accommodation 72% 73% Food and Beverage Services 45% 55% Financial Services Information Technology and Communication 39% 56% Health and Pharmaceutical Services 48% 33% Other Services 53% 57% Firm size Micro (1-4) 43% 50% Small (5-19) 47% 60% Medium (20-99) 53% 54% Large (>99) 39% 42% Ecological zone Yangon 48% 52% Mandalay 43% 54% Chin and Dry Zone 43% 51% Delta and Coastal Lowland 43% 47% Hilly Zone 48% 63% Ownership by gender Fully female owned 49% 52% Fully male owned 45% 53% Partially female owned 41% 51% Total 45% 53% Table 11: Reasons for not having cashflow shortages among the firms that did not experience cashflow shortages – by share of firms Sales has been Have access to Have access to non-banking Sector going well commercial banks financial institutions Others Agriculture 39% 9% 11% 32% Manufacturing 45% 2% 2% 23% Retail and wholesale 59% 9% 15% 10% Service 50% 2% 1% 34% Industry Agriculture and Aquaculture 39% 9% 11% 32% Food and Beverage Products 44% 0% 3% 21% Textiles and Garments 54% 0% 1% 0% Other Manufacturing 46% 3% 2% 27% Retail and Wholesale 59% 9% 15% 10% Construction 91% 0% 0% 9% Accommodation 25% 0% 8% 26% Food and Beverage Services 69% 2% 0% 14% Financial Services 49% 41% 0% 11% Information Technology and Communication 20% 0% 0% 79% Health and Pharmaceutical Services 81% 0% 4% 0% Other Services 26% 2% 2% 63% Firm size Micro (1-4) 52% 3% 3% 24% Small (5-19) 43% 9% 14% 26% Medium (20-99) 60% 3% 2% 13% Large (>99) 71% 32% 3% 0% Ecological zone Yangon 66% 6% 11% 9% Mandalay 57% 16% 12% 15% Chin and Dry Zone 44% 5% 12% 20% Delta and Coastal Lowland 40% 0% 1% 38% Hilly Zone 51% 4% 7% 20% Ownership by gender Fully female owned 45% 3% 3% 21% Fully male owned 48% 6% 10% 25% Partially female owned 54% 4% 2% 25% Total 49% 5% 7% 24% Sample Size 163 17 20 55 Table 12: Share of firms reporting the worst event that they have experienced COVID COVID The February COVID Sector first wave second wave 2021 coup third wave Agriculture 0% 10% 59% 26% Manufacturing 1% 5% 64% 29% Retail and wholesale 2% 7% 66% 22% Service 9% 9% 52% 30% Industry Agriculture and Aquaculture 0% 10% 59% 26% Food and Beverage Products 1% 1% 66% 31% Textiles and Garments 2% 14% 52% 32% Other Manufacturing 1% 9% 62% 27% Retail and Wholesale 2% 7% 66% 22% Construction 0% 0% 76% 24% Accommodation 0% 10% 76% 14% Food and Beverage Services 13% 2% 60% 24% Financial Services 0% 0% 41% 59% Information Technology and Communication 0% 11% 27% 63% Health and Pharmaceutical Services 6% 15% 16% 49% Other Services 2% 21% 37% 39% Firm size Micro (1-4) 2% 6% 62% 26% Small (5-19) 3% 10% 59% 27% Medium (20-99) 0% 6% 55% 38% Large (>99) 10% 0% 57% 33% Ecological zone Yangon 3% 4% 67% 24% Mandalay 5% 8% 57% 25% Chin and Dry Zone 2% 8% 70% 18% Delta and Coastal Lowland 2% 11% 56% 30% Hilly Zone 3% 1% 55% 36% Ownership by gender Fully female owned 3% 4% 58% 32% Fully male owned 2% 9% 57% 28% Partially female owned 2% 5% 75% 18% Total 2% 8% 61% 27% Sample Size 22 28 277 147 Table 13: Share of reporting foreign exchange issues impacting their business performance and operation MMK Limited MMK Limited deprecation access to depreciation access to against other other Sector against USD USD currencies currencies Agriculture 66% 27% 38% 24% Manufacturing 66% 17% 42% 9% Retail and wholesale 63% 15% 47% 18% Service 59% 14% 37% 15% Industry Agriculture and Aquaculture 66% 27% 38% 24% Food and Beverage Products 72% 19% 44% 11% Textiles and Garments 52% 40% 48% 40% Other Manufacturing 59% 13% 38% 3% Retail and Wholesale 63% 15% 47% 18% Construction 71% 16% 71% 17% Accommodation 33% 14% 27% 14% Food and Beverage Services 61% 14% 41% 17% Financial Services 0% 0% 0% 0% Information Technology and Communication 89% 20% 47% 15% Health and Pharmaceutical Services 54% 30% 42% 30% Other Services 60% 13% 30% 10% Firm size Micro (1-4) 63% 19% 40% 16% Small (5-19) 64% 19% 43% 16% Medium (20-99) 81% 31% 56% 29% Large (>99) 55% 49% 57% 51% Ecological zone Yangon 81% 21% 57% 21% Mandalay 53% 20% 30% 16% Chin and Dry Zone 59% 18% 45% 16% Delta and Coastal Lowland 69% 21% 45% 16% Hilly Zone 53% 17% 23% 17% Ownership by gender Fully female owned 74% 18% 41% 16% Fully male owned 60% 19% 40% 16% Partially female owned 69% 21% 47% 20% Total 64% 19% 41% 17% Sample Size 257 62 155 54 Table 14: Sales in the last completed month compared to January 2021 – by share of firms Sector Don't know Increase Remain the same Decrease Agriculture 13% 4% 8% 75% Manufacturing 7% 2% 7% 84% Retail and wholesale 4% 0% 10% 86% Service 10% 1% 6% 82% Industry Agriculture and Aquaculture 15% 6% 9% 70% Food and Beverage Products 2% 8% 4% 86% Textiles and Garments 9% 7% 3% 81% Other Manufacturing 8% 4% 5% 82% Retail and Wholesale 2% 2% 13% 83% Construction 17% 8% 0% 75% Accommodation 0% 0% 26% 74% Food and Beverage Services 10% 8% 2% 81% Financial Services 11% 0% 8% 81% Information Technology and Communication 11% 0% 0% 89% Health and Pharmaceutical Services 6% 8% 38% 48% Other Services 3% 2% 9% 86% Firm size Micro (1-4) 7% 5% 7% 80% Small (5-19) 9% 5% 9% 78% Medium (20-99) 1% 4% 4% 92% Large (>99) 0% 0% 19% 81% Ecological zone Yangon 3% 8% 8% 81% Mandalay 6% 7% 21% 65% Chin and Dry Zone 4% 3% 3% 89% Delta and Coastal Lowland 11% 6% 6% 77% Hilly Zone 8% 1% 9% 82% Ownership by gender Fully female owned 8% 3% 6% 82% Fully male owned 7% 6% 9% 78% Partially female owned 6% 2% 8% 84% Total 7% 5% 8% 80% Sample Size 34 27 51 373 Table 15: Share of firms reporting price increase since July 2021 and average price increase Share of firms reporting Sector price increase Average price increase Agriculture 24% 19% Manufacturing 44% 29% Retail and wholesale 52% 25% Service 52% 17% Industry Agriculture and Aquaculture 24% 19% Food and Beverage Products 39% 25% Textiles and Garments 43% 28% Other Manufacturing 52% 33% Retail and Wholesale 52% 25% Construction 32% 23% Accommodation 17% 19% Food and Beverage Services 61% 18% Financial Services 0% Information Technology and Communication 79% 19% Health and Pharmaceutical Services 59% 20% Other Services 40% 15% Firm size Micro (1-4) 41% 24% Small (5-19) 43% 22% Medium (20-99) 49% 28% Large (>99) 60% 13% Ecological zone Yangon 49% 27% Mandalay 40% 26% Chin and Dry Zone 35% 20% Delta and Coastal Lowland 49% 22% Hilly Zone 32% 24% Ownership by gender Fully female owned 55% 26% Fully male owned 41% 23% Partially female owned 32% 18% Total 42% 23% Sample Size 216 216 Table 16: Share of firms reporting the month that decided to increase since July 2021, among the firms that reported a price increase for their products and services Sector October September August July Agriculture 0% 10% 77% 13% Manufacturing 7% 38% 41% 14% Retail and wholesale 22% 20% 45% 12% Service 4% 27% 28% 41% Industry Agriculture and Aquaculture 0% 10% 77% 13% Food and Beverage Products 8% 49% 26% 17% Textiles and Garments 15% 22% 32% 31% Other Manufacturing 4% 28% 58% 10% Retail and Wholesale 22% 20% 45% 12% Construction 34% 34% 16% 16% Accommodation 0% 36% 47% 16% Food and Beverage Services 5% 27% 25% 44% Financial Services Information Technology and Communication 1% 69% 27% 4% Health and Pharmaceutical Services 0% 20% 20% 59% Other Services 0% 22% 43% 35% Firm size Micro (1-4) 13% 27% 45% 15% Small (5-19) 5% 23% 46% 26% Medium (20-99) 10% 16% 49% 24% Large (>99) 12% 50% 12% 25% Ecological zone Yangon 12% 43% 33% 13% Mandalay 4% 13% 73% 10% Chin and Dry Zone 5% 13% 43% 39% Delta and Coastal Lowland 14% 31% 41% 15% Hilly Zone 9% 15% 55% 21% Ownership by gender Fully female owned 13% 37% 42% 8% Fully male owned 5% 24% 50% 21% Partially female owned 24% 10% 32% 33% Total 10% 25% 45% 19% Sample Size 21 57 89 45 Table 17: Major decision to increase prices among the firms that increased prices – by share of firms To cover higher costs To cover higher To follow due to an increase in costs due to an industry trends To boost supply, intermediate increase in as competitors revenue Sector and input prices operation cost increased prices Agriculture 90% 10% 0% 0% Manufacturing 92% 7% 0% 0% Retail and wholesale 97% 3% 0% 0% Service 97% 0% 0% 3% Industry Agriculture and Aquaculture 90% 10% 0% 0% Food and Beverage Products 99% 1% 1% 0% Textiles and Garments 100% 0% 0% 0% Other Manufacturing 85% 15% 0% 0% Retail and Wholesale 97% 3% 0% 0% Construction 84% 16% 0% 0% Accommodation 100% 0% 0% 0% Food and Beverage Services 96% 0% 0% 4% Financial Services Information Technology and Communication 100% 0% 0% 0% Health and Pharmaceutical Services 100% 0% 0% 0% Other Services 99% 1% 0% 0% Firm size Micro (1-4) 99% 1% 0% 0% Small (5-19) 87% 11% 0% 2% Medium (20-99) 100% 0% 0% 0% Large (>99) 88% 12% 0% 0% Ecological zone Yangon 83% 16% 1% 0% Mandalay 100% 0% 0% 0% Chin and Dry Zone 87% 10% 0% 3% Delta and Coastal Lowland 100% 0% 0% 0% Hilly Zone 100% 0% 0% 0% Ownership by gender Fully female owned 90% 10% 0% 0% Fully male owned 96% 3% 0% 1% Partially female owned 97% 3% 0% 0% Total 95% 5% 0% 1% Sample Size 205 7 1 1 Table 18: Profit in the last completed month compared to January 2021 – by share of firms Sector Don't know Increase Remain the same Decrease Agriculture 15% 3% 7% 75% Manufacturing 5% 3% 9% 82% Retail and wholesale 4% 0% 10% 87% Service 9% 2% 8% 81% Industry Agriculture and Aquaculture 15% 3% 7% 75% Food and Beverage Products 2% 2% 13% 82% Textiles and Garments 9% 0% 10% 81% Other Manufacturing 8% 4% 5% 83% Retail and Wholesale 4% 0% 10% 87% Construction 17% 0% 0% 83% Accommodation 0% 0% 34% 66% Food and Beverage Services 13% 2% 9% 76% Financial Services 11% 0% 8% 81% Information Technology and Communication 11% 0% 0% 89% Health and Pharmaceutical Services 25% 3% 15% 57% Other Services 3% 2% 5% 89% Firm size Micro (1-4) 7% 1% 7% 84% Small (5-19) 10% 4% 11% 75% Medium (20-99) 1% 3% 4% 91% Large (>99) 10% 0% 11% 79% Ecological zone Yangon 4% 4% 11% 81% Mandalay 9% 0% 28% 63% Chin and Dry Zone 5% 3% 7% 85% Delta and Coastal Lowland 11% 2% 4% 83% Hilly Zone 9% 1% 2% 87% Ownership by gender Fully female owned 12% 1% 8% 79% Fully male owned 8% 2% 9% 81% Partially female owned 6% 2% 8% 85% Total 8% 2% 9% 81% Sample Size 44 18 50 373 Table 19: Share of firms reporting the labor related activities in the last completed month Granting Reducing Reducing Sector Hiring Laying off unpaid salary, wages hours leave or benefits Agriculture 9% 5% 0% 0% 0% Manufacturing 2% 1% 3% 1% 4% Retail and wholesale 10% 14% 4% 7% 20% Service 10% 4% 3% 8% 22% Industry Agriculture and Aquaculture 9% 5% 0% 0% 0% Food and Beverage Products 2% 0% 5% 1% 1% Textiles and Garments 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% Other Manufacturing 4% 2% 1% 0% 9% Retail and Wholesale 10% 14% 4% 7% 20% Construction 22% 13% 0% 24% 16% Accommodation 0% 2% 6% 20% 19% Food and Beverage Services 5% 7% 3% 9% 32% Financial Services 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Information Technology and Communication 0% 3% 0% 0% 11% Health and Pharmaceutical Services 6% 0% 29% 0% 29% Other Services 21% 0% 2% 6% 7% Firm size Micro (1-4) 5% 6% 2% 2% 12% Small (5-19) 14% 7% 4% 6% 9% Medium (20-99) 3% 1% 2% 5% 8% Large (>99) 1% 11% 0% 8% 7% Ecological zone Yangon 13% 6% 3% 9% 21% Mandalay 3% 2% 0% 2% 10% Chin and Dry Zone 5% 6% 6% 3% 11% Delta and Coastal Lowland 7% 7% 1% 3% 8% Hilly Zone 12% 6% 2% 4% 11% Ownership by gender Fully female owned 2% 1% 7% 3% 12% Fully male owned 9% 7% 2% 3% 8% Partially female owned 8% 6% 1% 6% 20% Total 8% 6% 2% 4% 11% Sample Size 32 27 14 28 51 Table 20: Outstanding loans from commercial banks, non-banking financial institutions, friends and family – by share of firms Commercial Non-banking Friends or Sector banks financial institutions family Agriculture 28% 20% 54% Manufacturing 13% 7% 43% Retail and wholesale 6% 8% 41% Service 9% 10% 33% Industry Agriculture and Aquaculture 28% 20% 54% Food and Beverage Products 17% 2% 50% Textiles and Garments 16% 12% 45% Other Manufacturing 6% 12% 32% Retail and Wholesale 6% 8% 41% Construction 24% 0% 5% Accommodation 9% 6% 13% Food and Beverage Services 11% 15% 39% Financial Services 0% 0% 41% Information Technology and Communication 0% 0% 34% Health and Pharmaceutical Services 0% 0% 6% Other Services 5% 3% 26% Firm size Micro (1-4) 15% 12% 50% Small (5-19) 11% 11% 31% Medium (20-99) 30% 6% 48% Large (>99) 30% 9% 23% Ecological zone Yangon 12% 11% 38% Mandalay 11% 16% 30% Chin and Dry Zone 23% 13% 57% Delta and Coastal Lowland 14% 6% 44% Hilly Zone 7% 17% 37% Ownership by gender Fully female owned 12% 18% 39% Fully male owned 15% 9% 49% Partially female owned 14% 12% 28% Total 14% 11% 43% Sample Size 55 46 169 Table 21: Delaying payments more than one week to suppliers, tax authorities, banks and non-bank institutions and employees– by share of firms Banks and Sector Suppliers Tax authorities non-bank Employees Agriculture 40% 29% 15% 3% Manufacturing 35% 11% 4% 4% Retail and wholesale 30% 8% 5% 8% Service 13% 11% 2% 4% Industry Agriculture and Aquaculture 40% 29% 15% 3% Food and Beverage Products 44% 6% 3% 1% Textiles and Garments 11% 5% 0% 6% Other Manufacturing 26% 19% 5% 7% Retail and Wholesale 30% 8% 5% 8% Construction 27% 13% 8% 0% Accommodation 12% 19% 0% 14% Food and Beverage Services 17% 11% 2% 6% Financial Services 41% 0% 0% 0% Information Technology and Communication 76% 63% 11% 0% Health and Pharmaceutical Services 0% 0% 0% 0% Other Services 6% 9% 2% 1% Firm size Micro (1-4) 35% 16% 7% 4% Small (5-19) 24% 14% 6% 6% Medium (20-99) 31% 7% 4% 11% Large (>99) 40% 9% 9% 8% Ecological zone Yangon 33% 18% 7% 15% Mandalay 31% 12% 7% 0% Chin and Dry Zone 29% 16% 12% 2% Delta and Coastal Lowland 30% 13% 3% 3% Hilly Zone 35% 21% 7% 8% Ownership by gender Fully female owned 29% 18% 2% 9% Fully male owned 33% 15% 9% 4% Partially female owned 26% 13% 4% 1% Total 31% 15% 7% 5% Sample Size 146 62 32 24 Table 22: Major mechanism to deal with cashflow shortages since February 2021 among the firms that experienced cashflow shortages - by share of firms Loans from Loans from Loans from friends Delaying Sector banks non-banks or family payments Agriculture 4% 20% 76% 0% Manufacturing 10% 8% 73% 9% Retail and wholesale 2% 0% 84% 13% Service 3% 12% 82% 2% Industry Agriculture and Aquaculture 4% 20% 76% 0% Food and Beverage Products 11% 2% 83% 3% Textiles and Garments 0% 13% 83% 4% Other Manufacturing 9% 19% 51% 20% Retail and Wholesale 2% 0% 84% 13% Construction 49% 0% 29% 21% Accommodation 0% 44% 56% 0% Food and Beverage Services 3% 12% 82% 3% Financial Services Information Technology and Communication 0% 0% 100% 0% Health and Pharmaceutical Services Other Services 6% 9% 84% 1% Firm size Micro (1-4) 4% 6% 86% 4% Small (5-19) 9% 23% 58% 10% Medium (20-99) 0% 12% 69% 19% Large (>99) 0% 0% 76% 24% Ecological zone Yangon 2% 17% 74% 7% Mandalay 0% 14% 83% 3% Chin and Dry Zone 13% 1% 86% 0% Delta and Coastal Lowland 3% 0% 85% 11% Hilly Zone 1% 44% 49% 5% Ownership by gender Fully female owned 2% 23% 72% 3% Fully male owned 5% 7% 81% 7% Partially female owned 9% 14% 71% 6% Total 5% 11% 78% 6% Sample Size 9 19 139 19 Appendix 4: Business Expectations Table 23: Firms’ confidence to remain open in next month, with current level of cashflow – by share of firms Not very Not Very Sector confident confident Neutral Confident confident Agriculture 2% 17% 36% 26% 19% Manufacturing 6% 10% 27% 34% 24% Retail and wholesale 2% 8% 38% 38% 14% Service 4% 6% 26% 38% 26% Industry Agriculture and Aquaculture 2% 17% 36% 26% 19% Food and Beverage Products 4% 6% 25% 33% 32% Textiles and Garments 4% 34% 20% 38% 3% Other Manufacturing 7% 14% 29% 34% 16% Retail and Wholesale 2% 8% 38% 38% 14% Construction 0% 0% 44% 40% 16% Accommodation 5% 11% 43% 33% 9% Food and Beverage Services 5% 7% 16% 41% 32% Financial Services 0% 11% 41% 41% 8% Information Technology and Communication 11% 13% 11% 65% 1% Health and Pharmaceutical Services 6% 4% 20% 15% 56% Other Services 2% 5% 43% 34% 17% Firm size Micro (1-4) 3% 13% 36% 29% 20% Small (5-19) 5% 6% 25% 42% 22% Medium (20-99) 4% 9% 34% 37% 17% Large (>99) 0% 0% 48% 34% 18% Ecological zone Yangon 2% 5% 17% 53% 22% Mandalay 7% 11% 23% 35% 25% Chin and Dry Zone 5% 18% 28% 34% 15% Delta and Coastal Lowland 3% 8% 40% 31% 18% Hilly Zone 0% 12% 39% 19% 30% Ownership by gender Fully female owned 4% 9% 39% 29% 19% Fully male owned 4% 13% 31% 34% 18% Partially female owned 0% 5% 28% 37% 31% Total 3% 11% 32% 34% 20% Sample Size 20 45 138 173 109 Table 24: Likelihood to shut down business in next 3 months – share of firms Not very Sector likely Not likely Neutral Likely Very likely Agriculture 18% 39% 25% 6% 12% Manufacturing 33% 36% 17% 9% 4% Retail and wholesale 33% 42% 19% 6% 0% Service 42% 39% 10% 3% 6% Industry Agriculture and Aquaculture 18% 39% 25% 6% 12% Food and Beverage Products 42% 31% 13% 7% 8% Textiles and Garments 4% 45% 32% 16% 2% Other Manufacturing 24% 42% 22% 12% 0% Retail and Wholesale 33% 42% 19% 6% 0% Construction 20% 45% 27% 8% 0% Accommodation 19% 46% 10% 23% 3% Food and Beverage Services 49% 26% 12% 3% 10% Financial Services 49% 0% 51% 0% 0% Information Technology and Communication 23% 77% 0% 0% 0% Health and Pharmaceutical Services 41% 29% 30% 0% 0% Other Services 33% 60% 5% 2% 0% Firm size Micro (1-4) 30% 38% 20% 6% 6% Small (5-19) 33% 42% 15% 6% 3% Medium (20-99) 28% 30% 14% 7% 20% Large (>99) 8% 55% 21% 16% 0% Ecological zone Yangon 40% 34% 14% 8% 4% Mandalay 30% 34% 26% 7% 3% Chin and Dry Zone 29% 24% 30% 6% 11% Delta and Coastal Lowland 26% 56% 10% 3% 4% Hilly Zone 38% 27% 17% 12% 6% Ownership by gender Fully female owned 26% 49% 18% 3% 4% Fully male owned 25% 37% 22% 8% 8% Partially female owned 55% 36% 6% 3% 0% Total 31% 39% 18% 6% 6% Sample Size 155 187 88 42 13 Table 25: Share of firms that expect to fall into arrears in outstanding liabilities in next 3 months and not expecting to recover to levels before February 2021 Sector Fall in arrears Not expectation to recover Agriculture 33% 49% Manufacturing 21% 36% Retail and wholesale 24% 46% Service 19% 31% Industry Agriculture and Aquaculture 33% 49% Food and Beverage Products 15% 36% Textiles and Garments 45% 52% Other Manufacturing 25% 33% Retail and Wholesale 24% 46% Construction 24% 39% Accommodation 2% 43% Food and Beverage Services 18% 31% Financial Services 0% 51% Information Technology and Communication 26% 21% Health and Pharmaceutical Services 3% 21% Other Services 24% 30% Firm size Micro (1-4) 27% 41% Small (5-19) 22% 42% Medium (20-99) 19% 36% Large (>99) 16% 41% Ecological zone Yangon 22% 39% Mandalay 23% 45% Chin and Dry Zone 14% 33% Delta and Coastal Lowland 31% 42% Hilly Zone 29% 50% Ownership by gender Fully female owned 25% 41% Fully male owned 27% 42% Partially female owned 17% 39% Total 25% 41% Sample Size 104 171 Table 26: Share of firms reporting change of business and investment plan since February 2021 Sector Change of business and investment plan Agriculture 53% Manufacturing 66% Retail and wholesale 63% Service 69% Industry Agriculture and Aquaculture 53% Food and Beverage Products 65% Textiles and Garments 79% Other Manufacturing 66% Retail and Wholesale 63% Construction 80% Accommodation 43% Food and Beverage Services 69% Financial Services 92% Information Technology and Communication 37% Health and Pharmaceutical Services 58% Other Services 74% Firm size Micro (1-4) 63% Small (5-19) 63% Medium (20-99) 54% Large (>99) 84% Ecological zone Yangon 62% Mandalay 61% Chin and Dry Zone 64% Delta and Coastal Lowland 62% Hilly Zone 64% Ownership by gender Fully female owned 63% Fully male owned 63% Partially female owned 63% Total 63% Sample Size 291 Table 27: Among the firms reporting change of business and investment plan since February 2021, the major changes – by share of firms Suspended Suspended Suspended planned new product planned Froze hiring business or service investment Sector expansion launch Agriculture 80% 85% 69% 46% Manufacturing 81% 88% 64% 61% Retail and wholesale 75% 80% 53% 31% Service 75% 81% 56% 49% Industry Agriculture and Aquaculture 80% 85% 69% 46% Food and Beverage Products 80% 88% 55% 51% Textiles and Garments 81% 81% 81% 71% Other Manufacturing 81% 90% 74% 72% Retail and Wholesale 75% 80% 53% 31% Construction 66% 82% 0% 17% Accommodation 100% 94% 63% 100% Food and Beverage Services 77% 88% 68% 49% Financial Services 100% 100% 100% 100% Information Technology and Communication 100% 100% 42% 44% Health and Pharmaceutical Services 75% 55% 0% 69% Other Services 71% 71% 38% 44% Firm size Micro (1-4) 75% 83% 59% 36% Small (5-19) 84% 85% 64% 65% Medium (20-99) 90% 96% 62% 66% Large (>99) 64% 64% 73% 82% Ecological zone Yangon 86% 83% 61% 52% Mandalay 81% 83% 69% 53% Chin and Dry Zone 74% 79% 58% 43% Delta and Coastal Lowland 82% 92% 65% 48% Hilly Zone 65% 73% 48% 43% Ownership by gender Fully female owned 75% 88% 68% 51% Fully male owned 80% 87% 66% 52% Partially female owned 75% 68% 33% 27% Total 78% 84% 61% 47% Sample Size 227 232 172 161 Appendix 5: Adaptations Table 28: Share of firms reporting major challenges for using online services and digital financial services among the firms that used online services or digital financial services Lack of IT High prices charged High prices for Limited of Sector capacity by online platforms online advertising internet Agriculture 0% 5% 6% 33% Manufacturing 33% 6% 22% 24% Retail and wholesale 16% 14% 29% 15% Service 16% 12% 15% 40% Industry Agriculture and Aquaculture 0% 5% 6% 33% Food and Beverage Products 55% 6% 32% 33% Textiles and Garments 55% 33% 52% 35% Other Manufacturing 0% 0% 2% 9% Retail and Wholesale 16% 14% 29% 15% Construction 61% 0% 10% 25% Accommodation 0% 0% 32% 14% Food and Beverage Services 17% 18% 13% 45% Financial Services 100% 0% 0% Information Technology and Communication 3% 12% 12% 14% Health and Pharmaceutical Services 0% 0% 0% 0% Other Services 14% 0% 16% 39% Firm size Micro (1-4) 17% 3% 12% 15% Small (5-19) 14% 15% 23% 41% Medium (20-99) 4% 6% 11% 32% Large (>99) 0% 0% 2% 8% Ecological zone Yangon 7% 13% 21% 23% Mandalay 8% 22% 23% 40% Chin and Dry Zone 21% 7% 16% 9% Delta and Coastal Lowland 27% 3% 20% 31% Hilly Zone 6% 3% 5% 44% Ownership by gender Fully female owned 25% 3% 6% 4% Fully male owned 14% 8% 18% 33% Partially female owned 7% 19% 23% 34% Total 15% 8% 17% 28% Sample Size 18 13 26 42 Table 29: Share of firms reporting adjustment plans to make in next 3 months if the situation does not improve Reduce Source cheaper Reduce number Reduce salaries operation inputs or raw of staffs Sector hours materials Agriculture 13% 8% 9% 23% Manufacturing 22% 14% 17% 11% Retail and wholesale 18% 6% 20% 11% Service 13% 16% 18% 10% Industry Agriculture and Aquaculture 13% 8% 9% 23% Food and Beverage Products 29% 17% 23% 14% Textiles and Garments 14% 12% 19% 5% Other Manufacturing 14% 10% 10% 8% Retail and Wholesale 18% 6% 20% 11% Construction 19% 30% 40% 13% Accommodation 46% 40% 27% 2% Food and Beverage Services 16% 20% 24% 16% Financial Services 0% 0% 0% 0% Information Technology and Communication 1% 1% 3% 0% Health and Pharmaceutical Services 0% 0% 0% 0% Other Services 5% 6% 8% 2% Firm size Micro (1-4) 16% 11% 16% 15% Small (5-19) 18% 11% 16% 13% Medium (20-99) 15% 13% 18% 5% Large (>99) 19% 4% 3% 1% Ecological zone Yangon 14% 12% 15% 16% Mandalay 11% 7% 5% 20% Chin and Dry Zone 23% 14% 20% 18% Delta and Coastal Lowland 18% 10% 17% 13% Hilly Zone 11% 9% 15% 4% Ownership by gender Fully female owned 11% 7% 13% 8% Fully male owned 20% 13% 16% 17% Partially female owned 11% 8% 18% 13% Total 17% 11% 16% 14% Sample Size 69 51 68 55 Table 30: Share of firms reporting adjustment plans to make in next 3 months if the situation does not improve Shift to new Temporarily Permanently business activities Borrow money close the close the unrelated to to cover cost business business current core Sector business Agriculture 24% 8% 8% 11% Manufacturing 6% 16% 8% 20% Retail and wholesale 10% 14% 3% 15% Service 6% 11% 6% 9% Industry Agriculture and Aquaculture 24% 8% 8% 11% Food and Beverage Products 7% 20% 11% 27% Textiles and Garments 0% 5% 4% 0% Other Manufacturing 7% 12% 3% 14% Retail and Wholesale 10% 14% 3% 15% Construction 13% 14% 0% 5% Accommodation 0% 34% 18% 13% Food and Beverage Services 8% 11% 8% 13% Financial Services 41% 0% 0% 41% Information Technology and Communication 11% 0% 0% 0% Health and Pharmaceutical Services 0% 4% 4% 0% Other Services 3% 8% 2% 2% Firm size Micro (1-4) 10% 9% 4% 15% Small (5-19) 17% 19% 10% 14% Medium (20-99) 7% 14% 9% 12% Large (>99) 1% 19% 9% 0% Ecological zone Yangon 14% 11% 6% 15% Mandalay 2% 17% 10% 21% Chin and Dry Zone 19% 12% 11% 18% Delta and Coastal Lowland 5% 10% 2% 12% Hilly Zone 25% 16% 6% 9% Ownership by gender Fully female owned 14% 8% 6% 21% Fully male owned 13% 16% 8% 14% Partially female owned 5% 6% 3% 6% Total 12% 12% 6% 14% Sample Size 47 58 31 56 Appendix 6: Tax payments and regulatory constraints Table 31: Share of firms that paid any types of taxes in the 6 months before February 2021 and in the 6 months before October 2021 6 months before February 6 months before October Sector 2021 2021 Agriculture 32% 9% Manufacturing 61% 19% Retail and wholesale 56% 20% Service 62% 25% Industry Agriculture and Aquaculture 32% 9% Food and Beverage Products 71% 26% Textiles and Garments 34% 12% Other Manufacturing 50% 11% Retail and Wholesale 56% 20% Construction 53% 35% Accommodation 71% 25% Food and Beverage Services 80% 35% Financial Services 41% 0% Information Technology and Communication 79% 1% Health and Pharmaceutical Services 53% 3% Other Services 32% 8% Firm size Micro (1-4) 47% 16% Small (5-19) 61% 21% Medium (20-99) 63% 20% Large (>99) 84% 55% Ecological zone Yangon 75% 33% Mandalay 61% 12% Chin and Dry Zone 44% 12% Delta and Coastal Lowland 45% 18% Hilly Zone 52% 16% Ownership by gender Fully female owned 54% 18% Fully male owned 51% 19% Partially female owned 56% 14% Total 52% 18% Sample Size 285 106 Table 32: Share of firms reporting that types of the taxes paid in the past 6 months before October 2021 Corporate Commercial Specific Customs Registration Payroll Stamp Sector income tax good tax duties tax tax duties Agriculture 55% 16% 16% 18% 54% 15% 16% Manufacturing 53% 20% 7% 20% 79% 12% 27% Retail and wholesale 62% 36% 5% 47% 81% 24% 11% Service 39% 22% 11% 32% 67% 22% 32% Industry Agriculture and Aquaculture 55% 16% 16% 18% 54% 15% 16% Food and Beverage Products 38% 15% 5% 16% 77% 6% 10% Textiles and Garments 82% 63% 0% 63% 37% 63% 19% Other Manufacturing 88% 30% 12% 24% 93% 17% 62% Retail and Wholesale 62% 36% 5% 47% 81% 24% 11% Construction 86% 86% 31% 100% 100% 100% 86% Accommodation 100% 0% 0% 25% 52% 52% 52% Food and Beverage Services 39% 24% 14% 28% 71% 24% 29% Financial Services Information Technology and Communication 100% 0% 0% 100% 100% 0% 0% Health and Pharmaceutical Services 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Other Services 25% 10% 0% 56% 45% 0% 46% Firm size Micro (1-4) 47% 22% 1% 33% 78% 18% 14% Small (5-19) 57% 26% 18% 29% 66% 17% 31% Medium (20-99) 49% 36% 2% 42% 87% 40% 31% Large (>99) 86% 70% 29% 17% 46% 57% 15% Ecological zone Yangon 47% 14% 8% 25% 69% 6% 23% Mandalay 36% 73% 39% 77% 80% 63% 50% Chin and Dry Zone 61% 32% 15% 37% 33% 23% 37% Delta and Coastal Lowland 67% 25% 6% 36% 84% 27% 15% Hilly Zone 21% 6% 0% 4% 96% 6% 5% Ownership by gender Fully female owned 47% 15% 0% 22% 78% 9% 39% Fully male owned 50% 19% 12% 24% 71% 20% 17% Partially female owned 68% 65% 12% 68% 78% 26% 19% Total 52% 25% 9% 31% 73% 19% 23% Sample Size 53 33 12 39 78 26 28 Table 33: Ease of tax filings and tax payments – share of firms Sector Improved Worsened Remained the same Agriculture 8% 11% 81% Manufacturing 4% 48% 48% Retail and wholesale 12% 41% 47% Service 5% 34% 61% Industry Agriculture and Aquaculture 8% 11% 81% Food and Beverage Products 3% 50% 46% Textiles and Garments 9% 28% 63% Other Manufacturing 6% 46% 49% Retail and Wholesale 12% 41% 47% Construction 0% 44% 56% Accommodation 0% 29% 71% Food and Beverage Services 4% 47% 50% Financial Services 100% 0% 0% Information Technology and Communication 0% 22% 78% Health and Pharmaceutical Services 0% 0% 100% Other Services 8% 6% 86% Firm size Micro (1-4) 9% 38% 53% Small (5-19) 4% 33% 62% Medium (20-99) 15% 51% 35% Large (>99) 29% 30% 41% Ecological zone Yangon 8% 30% 62% Mandalay 3% 34% 64% Chin and Dry Zone 9% 49% 41% Delta and Coastal Lowland 9% 32% 59% Hilly Zone 3% 36% 61% Ownership by gender Fully female owned 9% 36% 56% Fully male owned 8% 36% 56% Partially female owned 5% 40% 55% Total 8% 36% 56% Sample Size 24 85 133 Table 34: Ease of customs clearance and making customs payments – share of firms Sector Improved Worsened Remained the same Agriculture 1% 6% 92% Manufacturing 2% 55% 43% Retail and wholesale 5% 45% 50% Service 1% 35% 64% Industry Agriculture and Aquaculture 1% 6% 92% Food and Beverage Products 3% 62% 35% Textiles and Garments 1% 31% 69% Other Manufacturing 2% 48% 50% Retail and Wholesale 5% 45% 50% Construction 0% 19% 81% Accommodation 0% 26% 74% Food and Beverage Services 2% 48% 50% Financial Services 0% 0% 100% Information Technology and Communication 0% 22% 78% Health and Pharmaceutical Services Other Services 0% 10% 90% Firm size Micro (1-4) 2% 43% 55% Small (5-19) 4% 34% 63% Medium (20-99) 11% 49% 40% Large (>99) 13% 37% 50% Ecological zone Yangon 5% 34% 61% Mandalay 0% 38% 61% Chin and Dry Zone 6% 51% 43% Delta and Coastal Lowland 1% 40% 59% Hilly Zone 1% 18% 81% Ownership by gender Fully female owned 8% 35% 58% Fully male owned 1% 38% 61% Partially female owned 4% 51% 46% Total 3% 39% 58% Sample Size 13 83 135 Appendix 7: Questionnaires for the firm-level impacts in 2021 – Round 9 Round 9 of Firm assessment Phone interview introduction and consent form: Good morning/afternoon/evening. I am calling from [insert implementing contractor], on behalf of the World Bank. This establishment was randomly selected to participate in a survey, and the purpose of this survey is to better understand the current situation of businesses in Myanmar. I anticipate that this survey/interview will take less than [insert number of minutes] minutes to complete. The results of the survey will be used by the World Bank to monitor private sector development and to assess impacts of the recent events on businesses. All information and opinions you provide will be anonymized and kept confidential. Your name, the name of your establishment, detailed contact information will not be used in any document based on this survey. Participating in this survey is completely voluntary, and you can stop participating in this survey at any time. Please call [Insert number of the supervisor] if you have any further questions or want to withdraw from the survey. 0. Do you agree to participate in this survey? Yes 1 Continue with survey questions No 2 Thank them for their time 1. Date and time of the interview (start) [Instruction: To be completed by interviewer/supervisor) Date (start_01) Time (start_02) A. Screener and General Characteristics 1. What is name of the establishment? (a1) [Instruction: To be completed before interview] Name of the establishment 2. Location of the establishment [Instruction: To be completed before interview. For street address (a2a), please check with respondents first if they are comfortable of their street address being included in the survey. If respondents are not comfortable and insert “Not Applicable” (-5). Name Not Applicable Street address (a2a) -5 Township (a2b) State/region (a2c) 3. Is this establishment located in the industry zone? (a3) [Instruction: To be completed before interview] Yes – Headquarters is in the zone 1 Yes – Branches, factory and warehouse are in 2 the zone No 3 4. What type of product or service represents this establishment’s largest share of annual sales? (a4) Product or service with largest share of annual sales 5. What is the main industry of activity of your establishment? (a5) [Instruction: To be filled out by enumerator based on question a4]. Sector Industry Name Code Agriculture Agriculture and Aquaculture 1 Food and Beverage Products 3 Manufacturing Textiles and Garments 4 Other Manufacturing 5 Retail and wholesale Retail and Wholesale 6 Construction 7 Accommodation 8 Restaurants or Food and Beverage services 9 Services Financial Services 10 Information Technology and Communication 12 Health and Pharmaceutical Services 13 Other Services 14 6. Is this establishment formally registered with any level government authority at present a business registration certificate/license and other necessary certificates/licenses/permits to operate a business? (a6) Yes 1 No 2 Don’t know (spontaneous) -9 7. What is the firm’s ownership status? (a7) Private owned by national(s) 1 Private owned by foreigner(s) 2 Joint venture owned by national and foreign company(s) 3 Other (specify) 4 Don’t know (spontaneous) -9 8. When was this establishment established? (a8) Year this establishment was established Don’t know (spontaneous) -9 9. Amongst the owners of this establishment, are there any female? (a9) Yes 1 No 2 Go to a10 Don’t know (spontaneous) -9 Number What percentage of the establishment is owned by a female(s) (a9a) % owned by female(s) 10. How many employees did this establishment have in January 2021? (a10) Number Number of full-time employees (a10a) Number of part-time employees (a10b) 11. What was the total share of female employees in January 2021? (a11) Number Female full-time employees (a11a) Share (%) Female part-time employees (a11b) Share (%) 12. What was the value of total sales of this establishment in January 2021? (a12) Number Value of sales Don’t know (spontaneous) -9 13. Does this establishment usually export any of its products overseas? (a13) Yes 1 No 2 Don’t know (spontaneous) -9 14. What was the total value of investment, including equipment, machines, software and buildings of this establishment in January 2021? (a14) Number Value of investment Don’t know (spontaneous) -9 15. Have plans of this establishment to invest and expand the business in 2021 changed because of the coup since February 2021? (a15) Yes 1 Go to question (a15a) No 2 Go to question (a18) Don’t know (spontaneous) -9 Which of following decisions have you taken because of the coup? (a15a) [Instruction: Ask only a15=1, and select all that apply] Yes No Don’t know Not (spontaneous) Applicable Suspended planned business expansion 1 2 -9 -5 (a15a_a) Suspended planned investment (a15a_b) 1 2 -9 -5 Suspended new product or service launch 1 2 -9 -5 (a15a_c) Froze hiring (a15a_d) 1 2 -9 -5 Reduced hours of staff employed (a15a_e) 1 2 -9 -5 Reduced number of staff (a15a_f) 1 2 -9 -5 Shifted to a new product or service due to new 1 2 -9 -5 opportunities (a15a_g) 16. Does this establishment have an official business bank account? (a18) Yes 1 No 2 Don’t know (spontaneous) -9 17. Is this establishment located in urban or rural area? (a19) Urban 1 Rural 2 Don’t know (spontaneous) -9 18. Does this establishment use online services and digital financial services? (a20) Yes 1 No 2 Not applicable -5 Don’t know (spontaneous) -9 19. Does this establishment need any foreign currencies for business operation? Yes 1 Go to question a22 No 2 Go to next section Not applicable -5 Don’t know (spontaneous) -9 20. Which of the following applies to the need of foreign currencies? [Instruction: Ask only if a21=1] Yes No Not applicable We import finished products directly 1 2 and distribute to the local market (a22a) We import supply and raw materials 1 2 -5 directly (a22b) We pay suppliers in foreign 1 2 -5 currencies (payment for services or any indirect imports) (a22c) We have loans from foreign banks 1 2 -5 (a22d) 21. Did this establishment pay any taxes to the authorities in the past 6 months before February 2021? (a23) Yes 1 Go to next question No 2 Go to next section Not applicable -5 Don’t know (spontaneous) -9 22. Which of the following taxes did you pay in the past 6 months before February 2021? (a24) Select all that applies [Instruction: Ask only if a23=1] Yes No Don’t know Not (spontaneous) Applicable Corporate income taxes(a24a) 1 2 -9 -5 Commercial tax (a24b) 1 2 -9 -5 Specific good tax (a24c) 1 2 -9 -5 Customs duties (a24d) 1 2 -9 -5 Registration tax (a24e) 1 2 -9 -5 Payroll tax (a24f) 1 2 -9 -5 Stamp duties (a24g) 1 2 -9 -5 Others (a24h) Please specify B. Impacts on overall operation 1. How many days did this establishment operate in the last completed month? (b1) Days the establishment operated (insert number of days) Don’t know (spontaneous) -9 2. What is the current status of this establishment? (Instruction: If business is closed to public, but operates, it should be considered open) (b2) Open 1 Go to question (b2a) Temporary closed 2 Go to question (b3) Don’t know (spontaneous) -9 Go to question (b5) What percent of capacity for production or service did this establishment operate in the last completed month? (b2a) (Instruction: Only ask this question if b2=1, then go to question b5) Percent (insert percent) Don’t know (spontaneous) -9 3. For how many weeks has this establishment been closed due to the aftermath of the coup since February 1, 2021? (b3) Weeks the establishment has been closed (insert number of weeks) Don’t know (spontaneous) -9 4. In how many weeks do you expect that this establishment will resume full operations? (b4) Number of weeks that the establishment (insert number of weeks) Don’t know (uncertain) -9 5. Did this establishment experience any of the following in the last completed month? (b6) Yes No Don’t know Not (spontaneous) applicable Reduction of sales (b6b) 1 2 -9 -5 Disruption of the supply of inputs and 1 2 -9 -5 raw materials (b6c) Cash flow shortages (b6d) 1 2 -9 -5 Reduction in access to credit (b6e) 1 2 -9 -5 Reduction in workforce due to layoff 1 2 -9 -5 (b6f) Filed for insolvency or bankruptcy (b6g) 1 2 -9 -5 Having difficulty making payments on 1 2 -9 -5 loans and other business credits (b6h) Having difficulty making payments to 1 2 -9 -5 suppliers and employees due to reduced revenue (b6j) Having difficulty making payments to 1 2 -9 -5 suppliers and employees due to limited banking access (b6k) Limited internet access impacting 1 2 -9 -5 business operation (b6l) Damage to any business assets or 1 2 -9 -5 location (b6m) Reduction in tax payments to the current 1 2 -9 -5 administration (b6n) 6. What was the main reason for the disruption in intermediate materials or inputs? (b7) (Choose all that applies) [Instruction: Only ask if b6c=1] Yes No Don’t know (spontaneous) Not available (b7a) 1 2 -9 Go to question b9 Cost increased (b7b) 1 2 -9 Go to question b7ba Lower quality (b7c) 1 2 -9 Go to question b9 Others (specify) (b7d) How much did intermediate materials or input prices increase compared to ____? (b7ba) [Instruction: Ask only if b7b=1] January 2021 (b7ba1) Past 3 months (b7ba2) Percent of intermediate or input (insert percent) (insert percent) prices increased Don’t know (spontaneous) -9 -9 7. Why did you not experience cash flow shortage? (b9) (Instruction: Only ask this question if b6d=2, and select all that apply) Yes No Don’t know (spontaneous) Sales has been going well (b9a) 1 2 -9 This establishment can still have access to 1 2 -9 commercial banks (b9b) This establishment can still have access to 1 2 -9 non-banking financial institutions (b9c) Others (specify) (b9e) 8. Which of the following events had the worst impacts on this establishment? (b11) [Instruction: Select only one choice] COVID-19 first wave 1 COVID-19 second wave 2 The Coup 3 COVID-19 third wave 4 Don’t know (spontaneous) -9 9. Does any of the following have impacts on performance and operation of this establishment? (b12) Yes No Don’t know Not (Spontaneous) applicable Depreciation of Myanmar Kyat against 1 2 -9 -5 US dollar (b12a) Limited access to US dollar (b12b) 1 2 -9 -5 Depreciation of Myanmar Kyat against 1 2 -9 -5 other foreign currencies (b12c) Limited access to foreign currencies 1 2 -9 -5 other than US Dollars (b12d) 10. Which of the following impacts did this establishment experience? (b13) Select all that applies. [Instruction: Ask only if any of above in b12=1]. Yes No Don’t know Not (spontaneous) applicable Delayed payments to suppliers quoting 1 2 -9 -5 payments in US dollars (b13a) Inability to make payments to supplier 1 2 -9 -5 quoting payments in US dollars (b13b) Delayed payments to suppliers quoting 1 2 -9 -5 payments in other foreign currencies (b13c) Inability to make payments to supplier 1 2 -9 -5 quoting payments in other foreign currencies (b13d) Increase in raw material or input cost 1 2 -9 -5 (b13e) Increase in operational costs (b13f) 1 2 -9 -5 Increase in kyat-equivalent income from 1 2 -9 -5 export sales (b13g) Others (b13h) Please specify C. Impacts on Sales 1. Comparing this establishment’s sales for the last completed month in 2021 with January 2021, did the sales? (c2) Increase 1 Remain the same 2 Go to question c3 Decrease 3 Don’t know (spontaneous) -9 Go to question c3 Percent Increased by how much? (c2a) Percent Decreased by how much? (c2b) 2. Comparing this establishment’s profit for the last completed month with January 2021, did profit? (c3) Profit Increase 1 Remain the same 2 Go to question c4 Decrease 3 Don’t know (spontaneous) -9 Go to question c4 Percent Increased by how much? (c3a) Decreased by how much? (c3b) 3. Did this establishment increase the prices of products or services since July 2021? (c4) Yes 1 Go to next question No 2 Skip next question and go to Don’t know (spontaneous) -9 next section Percent Increased by how much? (c4a) 4. When did this establishment increase prices? (c5) [Instruction: Ask only if c4=1] Month code October 2021 1 September 2021 2 August 2021 3 July 2021 4 Don’t know (spontaneous) -9 5. What was the major decision to increase prices? (c6) Code To cover higher costs due to an increase 1 in supply, intermediate and input prices To cover higher costs due to an increase 2 in operation cost To follow industry trends as competitors 3 increased prices To boost revenue 4 Others (Specify) D. Impacts on labor 1. How many employees did this establishment have in the last completed month? (d1) Number Number of full-time employees (d1a) Number of part-time employees (d1b) 2. What was the total share of female employees in the last completed month? (d2) Share Female full-time employees (d2a) Female part-time employees (d2b) 3. In the last completed month, how many full-time workers were: (d3) [Instruction: Insert 0 if none of the following activities happen] Number Don’t know (spontaneous) Hired (male) (d3a) -9 Hired (female) (d3b) -9 Laid-off (male) (d3c) -9 Laid-off (female) (d3d) -9 Granted unpaid leave of absence (male) (d3e) -9 Granted unpaid leave of absence (female) (d3f) Had their salary, wages, or benefits reduced -9 (male) (d3g) Had their salary, wages, or benefits reduced -9 (female) (d3h) Had their hours reduced (male) (d3i) -9 Had their hours reduced (female) (d3j) -9 4. Since the beginning of February 2021, by what percent has this establishment size changed in terms of number of full-time employees? (d4) Percent change (Insert percent change) Don’t know (spontaneous) -9 Not applicable -5 5. Did this establishment face any difficulties finding labor to fill available positions if any labors are hired? (d5) [Instruction: Ask only if d3a>0 or d3b>0] Yes 1 No 2 Don’t know (spontaneous) -9 E. Impacts on finance 1. Does this establishment have any outstanding loans from following institutions/individuals? (e2) Yes No Don’t know (Spontaneous) Commercial banks (e2a) 1 2 -9 Non-banking financial institutions (microfinance institutions, 1 2 -9 credit cooperatives, credit unions, or finance companies) (e2b) Friends or family members (e2c) 1 2 -9 2. In the last completed month, did this establishment delay payments due to the COVID-19 third wave for more than one week to? (e3) Yes No Don’t know (spontaneous) Suppliers (e3a) 1 2 -9 Tax authorities (e3b) 1 2 -9 Banks and non-bank financial institutions 1 2 -9 (e3c) Employees (for salary) (e3d) 1 2 -9 3. Since the beginning of February 2021 what is the main mechanism used by this establishment to deal with cash flow shortages? [Instruction: Ask only if b6d=2] (e4) Loans from commercial banks 1 Loans from non-banking financial institutions (microfinance 2 institutions, credit cooperatives, credit unions, or finance companies Loans from friends or family 4 Delaying payments to suppliers/workers/authorities 5 Don’t know (spontaneous) -9 4. How long (in months) will your establishment be able to service its debt/s in the current situation? [Instruction: Ask only if b6d=2] (e5) Number Months Don’t know (Spontaneous) -9 5. Why did this establishment not have outstanding loans? [instruction: Ask only if e2a=2, e2b=2 and e2c=2, and select all that apply] Yes No Don’t know (spontaneous) This establishment can pay all outstanding 1 2 -9 loans on time (e6a) This establishment has enough savings to 1 2 -9 finance my expenses (e6b) This establishment have never had access to 1 2 -9 finance through formal and informal channels (e6c) This establishment no longer need loans due 1 2 -9 to reduced production (e6d) This establishment cannot access any new loans (e6e) Others (specify) (e6f) 1 2 -9 F. Response and resilience for business continuity 1. With your current cash flow, how confident are you that this establishment can remain open for the next month? (g1) Not very confident 1 Not confident 2 Neutral 3 Confident 4 Very confident 5 2. If the current situation does not improve, how likely is that this establishment will need to close business permanently in 3 months? (g2) Not very likely 1 Not likely 2 Neutral 3 Likely 4 Very likely 5 3. Do you anticipate that this establishment will fall in arrears in any of its outstanding liabilities in the course of the next 3 months? (g3) Yes 1 No 2 Don’t know (spontaneous) -9 4. Do you expect this establishment business to recover back to levels before Feb 2021 in next 6 months? (g4) Yes 1 No 2 Go to question g6 Not applicable -5 Don’t know (spontaneous) -9 5. Looking ahead to the next 3 months, what is the expected change in sales that you anticipate for this establishment compared to the same period last year? (g5) Sales change (%) Don’t know -9 6. Looking ahead to the next 3 months, what is the expected change in employment that you anticipate for this establishment compared to the same period last year? (g6) Employment change (%) Don’t know -9 7. Looking ahead to the next 3 months, what is the expected change in investment that you anticipate for this establishment compared to the same period last year? (g7) Investment change (%) Don’t know -9 G. Adjustment mechanisms 1. Has this establishment made any of the following adjustment in the last completed month? (i1) [Select all that apply] Yes No Don’t know Not (spontaneous) Applicable Changed its production or services offered 1 2 -9 -5 partially or completely (i1a) Started or increased delivery or carry-on (i1b) 1 2 -9 -5 Started or increased remote work arrangement 1 2 -9 -5 for its workforce (i1c) Shifted focus to marketing activities (i1e) 1 2 -9 -5 Shifted focus to improving internal systems and 1 2 -9 -5 operations (i1f) Shifted focus to refurbishments and renovations 1 2 -9 -5 (i1g) Shifted focus to new business activities 1 2 -9 -5 unrelated to my core business (i1h) Provided discounts and promotions (i1i) 1 2 -9 -5 Upskilling or training employees (i1j) 1 2 -9 -5 2. Has this establishment experienced any of the following challenges with online services and digital financial services in the last completed month? (i5) [instruction: Ask only if a20=1, and select all that apply] Yes No Not Applicable Lack of IT capacity, skills or technology within the 1 2 -5 business (i5a) High prices charged by online platforms, marketplaces 1 2 -5 or sellers (i5b) High prices for online advertising (i5c) 1 2 -5 Did not experience any challenges selling goods or 1 2 -5 services online (i5d) Limited internet access (i5e) 1 2 -5 Others (i5f) Please specify 3. Does this establishment plan to make any of the following adjustments if the situation does not improve in next 3 months? (i6) Yes No Don’t know Not (spontaneous) Applicable Reduce number of staffs (i6a) 1 2 -9 -5 Reduce salaries (i6b) 1 2 -9 -5 Reduce operation hours (i6c) 1 2 -9 -5 Source cheaper inputs or raw materials (i6d) 1 2 -9 -5 Borrow money to cover cost (i6e) 1 2 -9 -5 Temporarily close the business (i6f) 1 2 -9 -5 Permanently close the business (i6g) 1 2 -9 -5 Shift to new business activities unrelated to my 1 2 -9 -5 core business (i6h) H. Tax payment 1. Did this establishment pay any taxes to the authorities in the past 6 months? (j1) Yes 1 Go to next question No 2 Go to question j3 Not applicable -5 Don’t know (spontaneous) -9 2. Which of the following taxes did you pay in the past 6 months? (j2) [Instruction: Ask only if j1=1] Yes No Don’t know Not (spontaneous) Applicable Corporate income taxes(j2a) 1 2 -9 -5 Commercial tax (j2b) 1 2 -9 -5 Specific good tax (j2c) 1 2 -9 -5 Customs duties (j2d) 1 2 -9 -5 Registration tax (j2e) 1 2 -9 -5 Payroll tax (j2f) 1 2 -9 -5 Stamp duties (j2g) 1 2 -9 -5 Others (j2h) Please specify 3. Comparing this establishment’s estimated tax payments to the authorities for this year with last year, did the tax payments _____? (j3) Increase 1 Go to question (j4) Remain the same 2 Decrease 3 Go to question (j3a) Don’t know (spontaneous) -9 Go to question (j4) Percent Decreased by how much? (j3a) 4. Has the ease of filing and paying taxes improved or worsened since February 2021? (j4) Improved 1 Worsened 2 Remained the same 3 Don’t know (spontaneous) -9 Not applicable -5 5. Has the ease of clearing customs and making customs payments improved or worsened since February 2021? (j5) Improved 1 Worsened 2 Remained the same 3 Don’t know (spontaneous) -9 Not applicable -5 The survey ends here. I would like to gather a few final details. Thank you for your time and cooperation. I. Control Questions 1. The name of the respondent (k1) [Instruction: Select “Not applicable” if respondents do not feel comfortable providing their names] Name Not applicable -5 2. What option best reflect your main occupation in this establishment? (k2) [Instruction: Select “Not applicable” if respondents do not feel comfortable providing their titles] Owner, CEO or CFO 1 Manager 2 Accountant or lawyer 3 Other Please specify Not applicable -5 3. Contact information (k3) [Instruction: Select “Not applicable” if respondents do not feel comfortable providing contact info details] Email/Phone number Not applicable Email (k3a) Insert email address -5 Phone number (k3b) Insert phone number -5 4. Would like you to participate in the future rounds of the survey? (k4) Yes 1 No 2 5. Number of calls attempted (k5) [Instruction: To be completed by interviewer/supervisor) Number of calls attempted 6. Date and time of the interview (end) [Instruction: To be completed by interviewer/supervisor) Date (End_01) Time (End_02)