S  T O           Y F O R
      U T              E G
I N P
           I S T R A T
                                A  NIA”
T H E  F D
                     OM     E R
     ST IN P
“INVE                                        (2021 – 2027)




             N O T E
      H ESIS
SYNT




                        Project co- nanced by the European Union
                    from the European Regional Development Fund
          S  T O           Y F O R
      U T              E G
I N P
           I S T R A T
                                A  NIA”
T H E  F D
                     OM     E R
     ST IN P
“INVE                                        (2021 – 2027)




              N O T E
    N T HESIS
S Y




                        Project co- nanced by the European Union
                    from the European Regional Development Fund
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Contents

        5	Acknowledgements
        7	Abbreviations




	9 	    CHAPTER 1
		Introduction



	13
		
		
   	    CHAPTER 2
        Summary of the “Impact evaluation of Invest in Pomerania
        (2011 – 2020)” report
        14	   Quantitative impact assessment
        16	   Qualitative impact assessment
        17	   Key considerations for Invest in Pomerania’s new FDI strategy for 2022 – 2027




	21
		
		
   	    CHAPTER 3
        The strategic context — factors driving change in the global
        landscape for FDI
        22	   Global megatrends impacting FDI




	31
		
   	    CHAPTER 4
        Leveraging FDI for Pomerania’s economic development



	35
		
       	 CHAPTER 5
        Prioritizing sectors for promotion
        36	   Rationale for investor targeting
        36	   Priority sectors identified for FDI promotion
        39	   The Pomerania region value proposition in priority sectors
        40	   Targeted investment promotion services




	45
		
       	 CHAPTER 6
        Key actions for strategy implementation
        46	   Pillar 1: Strategic alignment and focus
        47	   Pillar 2: Coherent institutional framework
        48	   Pillar 3:Investor services
BOXES
33	 BOX 4.1  By 2027 Invest in Pomerania will



FIGURES
15	 FIGURE 2.1  Firms, Employment and Wages in            38	 FIGURE 5.2  Core target sectors and key
    Priority Sectors vs. Other Sectors (Index, 2009 =         investment opportunities
    100), Pomerania 2009 – 2018                           41	 FIGURE 5.3  Focus of IiPs investment services by
15	 FIGURE 2.2  Number of FDI projects and amount             target sector
    of investment in IT-BPO vs. other priority sectors,   41	 FIGURE 5.4  The investment life cycle
    Pomerania 2003 – 2020
                                                          42	 FIGURE 5.5  Comprehensive investor services
33	 FIGURE 4.1  Projected contributions to regional           framework
    economic development priorities
                                                          46	 FIGURE 6.1  Core elements for increasing the
37	 FIGURE 5.1  FDI sector targeting                          development impact of IiP



TABLES
18	 TABLE 2.1  Summary of Recommendations from            27	 TABLE 3.2  Global, regional, national, and
    the impact evaluation, for consideration in IiP’s         subnational FDI trends overview
    new strategy                                          39	 TABLE 5.1  Main sources of target sectors’
22	 TABLE 3.1  Key global megatrends at a glance              competitiveness
                                                                                    5




Acknowledgements
This report was prepared by a World Bank Group team led by Austin Kilroy,
Lukasz Marek Marc and Harald Jedlicka (Task Team Leaders). The core team
(in alphabetical order) consisted of Maximilian Eltgen, Robert Hejzak, Marton
Kerkapoly, Alexandra Mincu, Zenia Ann Rogatschnig and Victor Steenbergen.
Marco Di Cataldo (University of Venice) and Mara Giua (Roma Tre University)
provided inputs under the guidance of Riccardo Crescenzi (London School of
Economics). Leonardo Iacovone, Yago Arranda Larrey and Cristina Savescu have
peer reviewed the report.

The report was undertaken under the guidance of Marcus Heinz, Resident Repre-
sentative, Ilias Skamnelos, Practice Manager, and Ivan Nimac, Lead Private Sec-
tor Specialist. The team appreciated their comments, advice, and help throughout
the course of this work. The team would like to express its gratitude to Wojciech
Tyborowski, Marcin Grzegory, Mikołaj Trunin, Tomasz Grabowski, and Monika
Stokfisz from Invest in Pomerania for their valuable contributions and support.

Numerous private sector firms provided their candid inputs for the sector — level
analysis in sector specific focus groups conducted on an anonymous basis, and the
team is grateful to each company for taking the time to share their insights.
                                                                                  7




Abbreviations
	AI	    Artificial Intelligence
	ARP	   Agencja Rozwoju Pomorza Spółka Akcyjna
	 BPO 	 Business Process Outsourcing
	CEE	   Central and Eastern Europe
	CO2	   carbon dioxide
	ECA	   Europe and Central Asia
	EU	    European Union
	FDI	   Foreign Direct Investment
	GDP	   Gross Domestic Product
	GVC	   Global Value Chain
	HQ	    headquarters
	ICT	   Information and Communications Technology
	IIA	   International Investment Agreement
	IiP	   Invest in Pomerania
	IPA	   Investment Promotion Agency
	IT	    Information Technology
	KPI	   key performance indicators
	M&E	   monitoring and evaluation
	MNE	   Multinational Enterprise
	NEM	   non-equity mode
	PAIH	  Polish Investment and Trade Agency (Polska Agencja Inwestycji i Handlu)
	RAS	   Reimbursable Advisory Services
	R&D	   Research & Development
	SSC	   Shared Services Center
	US	    United States
	USA	   United States of America
	WAIPA	 World Association of Investment Promotion Agencies
	WTO	   World Trade Organization
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10   Inputs to the FDI strategy for Invest in Pomerania                SYNTHESIS NOTE




     In 2011, the Pomerania region of Poland set up ‘Invest in Pomerania’ (IiP) as its
     regional investment promotion agency. Several local institutions together launched
     IiP to ensure regional coordination of FDI attraction and investment promotion
     opportunities. The goal was to create a single entity that would effectively attract
     and facilitate FDI to the region, and also act as an interface between investors,
     local authorities and other stakeholders. While starting off small, the agency has
     developed significantly since its inception. With a total of 22 employees, the agency
     today has a number of functions, including investment promotion, matchmaking
     services, innovation promotion, development of local suppliers, functioning as a
     one-stop-shop, and promoting domestic investment.

     The development of a new Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Strategy for Invest
     in Pomerania comes at an important moment to support the region’s new eco-
     nomic development objectives. Upon reaching its ten-year anniversary, the agency
     finds itself at an important crossroads, as it seeks to develop its new investment
     promotion strategy for 2022 – 2027. The Pomerania region has recently launched
     the “Development strategy of the Pomeranian Voivodeship 2030”, which outlines
     transformational priorities to advance the development of the region and increase
     economic growth. At the same time, global megatrends, including the COVID-19
     pandemic, climate change, tightening trade policies and geostrategic tensions dra-
     matically change the global landscape for FDI, highlighting the critical importance
     of developing and adopting a new FDI strategy for Invest in Pomerania.

     The following synthesis note provides core inputs and elements for Invest in Pomer-
     ania to develop a new FDI strategy that takes advantage of global FDI megatrends
     and is aligned with the Pomerania region’s development objectives. It draws on
     two new technical reports provided by the World Bank to Invest in Pomerania. The
     first is “Impact evaluation of Invest in Pomerania (2011 – 2020)”, that provides a
     quantitative and qualitative review of IiP’s past investment promotion strategy. By
     looking backwards at the agency’s impact while also drawing out major strengths,
     weaknesses, opportunities and threats for IiP, this report is designed to evaluate
     past performance while also informing the agency’s future development path. The
     second technical report “Inputs to the Investment Strategy of Invest in Pomerania”
     provides an analysis of relevant global and regional FDI trends to frame the con-
     text in which the new strategy for Invest in Pomerania will be developed. By as-
     sessing the risks and opportunities associated with global megatrends in FDI, this
     report is designed to help pinpoint sectors with high growth potential for invest-
     ment attraction to the Pomerania region. Next, the report provides an in-depth
     analysis of the feasibility and desirability of key sectors for FDI attraction in the
     Pomerania region. By looking at the competitiveness of specific sectors as well as
     their potential benefits to Pomerania’s economy, this sector scan serves to analyze
     and identify priority sectors for Invest in Pomerania’s FDI attraction efforts. Final-
     ly, the report proposes key actions for strategy implementation.
                                                   Chapter 1           Introduction     11




The following synthesis note provides a brief summary of the two main reports’
findings and is structured in 5 main chapters.

Chapter 2 provides a short summary of a quantitative and qualitative review of
IiP’s investment promotion strategy from 2011 to 2021 and outlines key consider-
ations for the agency’s new FDI strategy for 2022 – 2027.

Chapter 3 provides a short summary of key factors driving change in the current
global landscape for FDI and assesses risks and opportunities associated with these
trends for Invest in Pomerania’s new FDI strategy for 2022 – 2027.

Chapter 4 assesses the strategic context in which the new FDI strategy will be devel-
oped and links its specific targets and activities to the Pomerania region’s overall
economic development objectives.

Chapter 5 identifies a short list of priority sectors for FDI attraction based on a
detailed FDI Sector Scan assessment, and presents short sector profiles outlining
the key strengths and elements constituting the Pomerania region’s value proposi-
tion to investors in these sectors.

Chapter 6 outlines a high-level action plan for IiP to implement the new invest-
ment strategy, focused on three principal areas: enhancing IiP’s strategic align-
ment and focus; strengthening IiP’s institutional framework; and upgrading IiP’s
investor services delivery.
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Summary of the
“Impact evaluation of
Invest in Pomerania
(2011 – 2020)” report
14   Inputs to the FDI strategy for Invest in Pomerania                 SYNTHESIS NOTE




     In 2011, the Pomerania region of Poland set up ‘Invest in Pomerania’ (IiP) as its
     regional investment promotion agency. Several local institutions together launched
     IiP to ensure regional coordination of FDI attraction and investment promotion
     opportunities. The goal was to create a single entity that would effectively attract
     and facilitate FDI to the region, and also act as an interface between investors,
     local authorities and other stakeholders. While starting off small, the agency has
     developed significantly since its inception. With a total of 22 employees, the agency
     today has a number of functions, including investment promotion, matchmaking
     services, innovation promotion, development of local suppliers, functioning as a
     one-stop-shop, and promoting domestic investment. The following chapter sum-
     marizes the impact evaluation of “Invest in Pomerania” (2011 – 2020), which pro-
     vides a quantitative and qualitative review of IiP’s investment promotion strategy.




     Quantitative impact assessment
     Since its inception in 2011, IiP’s priority sectors have grown more significantly
     than its non-priority sectors. Next to an increase in the number of greenfield FDI
     projects and total investment in its priority sectors, IiP’s priority sectors have also
     been growing faster in Pomerania. Between 2011 and 2018, the gross value added
     in IiP priority sectors had a composite annual growth rate of 7.4 percent, while
     other sectors grew at only 4.1 percent. Priority sectors also appear to have seen
     larger increases in the number of firms and persons employed since the start of IiP
     (see Figure 2.1).

     Pomerania’s economic performance has been driven by those sectors that IiP tar-
     geted — in particular the IT-BPO sector. Since the inception of IiP, the IT-BPO makes
     up a considerable share of new FDI projects in Pomerania. These projects tend to
     be a bit smaller in size, and so this has less of an effect on total announced invest-
     ment (see Figure 2.2). However, IT-BPO also outpaces other IiP priority sectors in
     gross value added, growth in employment, and in the development of average wages.

     Most new FDI is concentrated in the Tri-City area. A subregional analysis of
     Pomerania shows that most of the new FDI has gone to the Tri-City area (compris-
     ing the cities Gdańsk, Gdynia, and Sopot), both by numbers of projects and total
     FDI, along with increases in gross value added, firm numbers, and employment.

     Pomerania’s FDI trends roughly follow those of Lesser Poland and Lower Silesia,
     two regions deemed competitors. In terms of growth in value added in IiP priority
     sectors, Pomerania is outperforming Lower Silesia and the rest of Poland, but it is
     outpaced by Lesser Poland. Firm dynamics of IiP priority sectors across the differ-
     ent regions suggest that Pomerania did well in terms of firm numbers, but lagged
     behind in persons employed and average wages. Thus, while Pomerania has grown
     significantly, there still seems to be room for improvement relative to its compet-
     itor regions in Poland.
                                                                        Chapter 2                    Summary                                                 15




FIGURE 2.1  Firms, Employment and Wages in Priority Sectors vs. Other Sectors (Index, 2009 = 100),
Pomerania 2009 – 2018
a. Number of Firms                                                                 b. Persons Employed

220                                                                                160

180                                                                                140

140                                                                                120

100                                                                                100

 60                                                                                 80
      2009

                2010

                       2011

                              2012

                                     2013

                                            2014

                                                   2015

                                                          2016

                                                                 2017

                                                                        2018




                                                                                           2009

                                                                                                  2010

                                                                                                         2011

                                                                                                                2012

                                                                                                                       2013

                                                                                                                              2014

                                                                                                                                     2015

                                                                                                                                            2016

                                                                                                                                                   2017

                                                                                                                                                          2018
c. Total Wages and Salaries                                                        d. Average Wages

260                                                                                160

220
                                                                                   140
180
                                                                                   120
140
                                                                                   100
100

 60                                                                                 80
      2009

                2010

                       2011

                              2012

                                     2013

                                            2014

                                                   2015

                                                          2016

                                                                 2017

                                                                        2018




                                                                                           2009

                                                                                                  2010

                                                                                                         2011

                                                                                                                2012

                                                                                                                       2013

                                                                                                                              2014

                                                                                                                                     2015

                                                                                                                                            2016

                                                                                                                                                   2017

                                                                                                                                                          2018
                                                          IiP priority sectors            Other sectors

Source: Authors’ calculations using EUROSTAT.
Note: Priority sectors are defined in detailed terms, at the NACE2 level. The grey bar denotes IiP’s starting year.




FIGURE 2.2  Number of FDI projects and amount of investment in IT-BPO vs. other priority sectors,
Pomerania 2003 – 2020
a. Total number of projects                                                        b. Total announced investment

60                                                                                      3,000
50                                                                                      2,500

40                                                                                      2,000
                                                                                  XXX




30                                                                                       1,500

20                                                                                       1,000

10                                                                                        500

 0                                                                                           0
             2003-2011 (Pre-IiP)                    2011-2020 (IiP)                                 2003-2011 (Pre-IiP)                 2011-2020 (IiP)

                                                            IT-BPO             Other Priority Sectors

Source: Authors’ calculations using fDi Markets.
Note: Priority sectors are defined in detailed terms, at the NACE2 level.
16   Inputs to the FDI strategy for Invest in Pomerania                                      SYNTHESIS NOTE




     Econometric analysis complements the descriptive statistics by directly showing
     that IiP has had a significant impact on FDI flows. The empirical strategy relies on
     a staggered difference-in-differences model, exploiting information on IiP’s target-
     ing strategies by sector. The model is inspired by Harding and Javorcik (2011)1 and
     leverages survey data from Crescenzi, Di Cataldo, and Giua (2021)2 combined with
     greenfield FDI announcements from the Financial Times’ fDi Markets database3.
     By using Crescenzi, Di Cataldo, and Giua’s 2021 dataset on European regional
     IPAs, it is possible to know which region-sectors are targeted by other regional
     IPAs and to exclude them from the sample to reduce bias in the model.4 The model
     then assesses the effects of IiP’s strategy by estimating the additional FDI inflows
     in selected sectors during periods of investment promotion, relative to periods in
     which IiP was not in operation and not targeting those sectors, compared to other
     regions in Poland and Europe more broadly. The analysis shows that IiP’s target-
     ing of a sector is associated with:

     •	   Increased probability of 16 to 18 percent for a targeted sector to receive FDI
     •	   Average increase of 76 additional projects attracted over the time-horizon
     •	   Average increase up to 160 percent in the inflow of FDI
     •	   Average increase up to 230 percent of FDI-related jobs

     In other words, sectors targeted by IiP perform significantly better than non-tar-
     geted sectors in terms of FDI attraction; IiP has been able to increase the attraction
     of FDI and FDI-related jobs; and the amount of attracted foreign capital appears to
     be substantial. IiP’s effectiveness at attracting FDI and FDI jobs is also above aver-
     age compared to other regional investment promotion agencies (IPAs) in Europe.




     Qualitative impact assessment
     The qualitative impact combines a literature review, an IPA benchmarking exer-
     cise, and a stakeholder survey. Existing literature is reviewed to establish good prac-
     tice elements that constitute an effective investment promotion agency. In the IPA
     benchmarking exercise, different characteristics of IiP’s structure and performance
     are qualitatively compared to the characteristics that High-Performing IPAs tend to
     display (as identified by Steenbergen, forthcoming). Stakeholder consultations with
     57 private organizations and public and semipublic institutions in Pomerania helped
     to establish the causal mechanisms by which IiP has had an impact on investment.


     1. Harding, T., & Javorcik, B. S. (2011). Roll out the red carpet and they will come: Investment promotion
     and FDI inflows. The Economic Journal, 121(557), 1445 – 1476.
     2. Crescenzi, R., Di Cataldo, M., & Giua, M. (2021). FDI inflows in Europe: Does investment promotion
     work?. Journal of International Economics, 132, 103497.
     3. https://www.fdimarkets.com/
     4. Excluding these regions from the sample helps to assess the absolute effectiveness of IiP’s specific invest-
     ment promotion program (rather than consider its relative effectiveness vis-à-vis other IPAs).
                                                       Chapter 2            Summary       17




Stakeholder perceptions corroborate the findings of the quantitative analysis that
IiP has helped to attract foreign investment, in part through its role as a regional
coordinator. Among different stakeholders — both public and private sector — IiP
is also generally seen as having been successful in attracting FDI, with several firms
attesting to the pivotal role the agency has played in their decision-making to lo-
cate in the Pomerania region. IiP is also perceived as having helped to improve in-
teragency coordination and cooperation between different public and semipublic
institutions in the region, functioning as an integrator and central node of a wide
network of different public and semipublic institutions. This has contributed to
streamlining the flow of information between investors and regional institutions.

Invest in Pomerania’s effectiveness derives from its focus on investment promotion
and institutional coordination. IiP’s operating structure and organizational frame-
work have been mostly set up in line with good practices of high-performing IPAs.
In combination with well-respected staff, IiP has excelled in attracting FDI. IiP con-
centrated on a number of key services and activities that it performs well, thereby
avoiding diluting efforts across too many different tasks. For example, by focusing its
promotion efforts on the IT-BPO cluster, IiP bundled its resources and attention to
achieve extraordinary results in helping the cluster grow and also enabled it to exper-
iment with expanding its functions in a targeted way, such as by proactively address-
ing marketing around the lack of skills through the Live More. Pomerania initiative.



Key considerations
for Invest in Pomerania’s
new FDI strategy for 2022 – 2027
IiP can reach the next stage of its evolution by further professionalizing its oper-
ations. To do so, the impact evaluation report makes a number of recommenda-
tions to consider for the new FDI strategy. These include: some revisions to IiP’s
institutional structure; an update of IiP’s strategic alignment and focus; expanded
staff profiles and remuneration, with clear KPIs; and some improvements in deliv-
ery of investor services. A summary of the recommendations is provided here in
Table 2.1. The rest of the report builds on these recommendations in more detail.
18                                   Inputs to the FDI strategy for Invest in Pomerania                   SYNTHESIS NOTE




TABLE 2.1  Summary of Recommendations from the impact evaluation, for consideration in IiP’s new
strategy

Pillar                Recommendation

Institutional         •	 Consider conducting a detailed review of Invest in Pomerania’s structure to potentially include
Arrangement              a formal board of directors or advisory board and to increase private sector participation in its
                         board.
                      •	 Strengthen IiP’s role as coordinator between public, semipublic, and private sector actors in the
                         technology and digital economy sectors (e.g., those providing start-up incubation, acceleration,
                         financing, etc.) to improve information flows between actors, increase transparency about availa-
                         bility of different services, and streamline overlapping offerings.
                      •	 Increase coordination between IiP and the Polish Investment and Trade Agency (PAIH).

Strategic Align-      •	 Clarify and update the agency’s priority sectors in the new FDI strategy and provide greater clar-
ment and Focus           ity and consistency about priority sectors in IiP’s communications.
                      •	 Consider increasing the share of resources spent on non-IT-BPO priority sectors.
                      •	 Reconsider the promotion of domestic investment as part of IiP’s mandate and consider shifting
                         the agency’s resource allocation from promoting domestic SMEs to promoting foreign SMEs and
                         from overseeing grants to attracting FDI, to the extent its funding structure based on EU funds
                         permits.

Organizational        •	 When hiring additional staff, focus on sector-specific expertise for priority sectors in upcoming
Framework and            FDI strategy.
Resourcing            •	 Align IiP’s staff salaries with private sector remuneration levels.
                      •	 Increase the number of KPIs and impact indicators that Invest in Pomerania measures to guide
                         staff and better quantify the benefits and costs of its works.

Investor Services     Marketing Services:
Delivery              •	 Develop a stronger narrative about the Tri-City region as investment destination and consider a
                         multichannel marketing campaign for a global audience.
                      •	 Review the effectiveness of social media programs, and potentially outsource their implementa-
                         tion.
                      •	 Create case studies of successful investments in the region and of start-ups that managed to
                         internationalize.
                      Information Services:
                      •	 Increase the publicity and dissemination of IiP’s reports.
                      •	 Display topical information for foreign investors directly on IiP’s website.
                      •	 Use business intelligence tools to develop forward-looking sector reports.
                      Assistance Services:
                      •	 Continue IiP’s efforts to improve the transparency of land ownership to generate larger plots for
                         manufacturing investments.
                      •	 Expand the information provided on the Live More. Pomerania website.
                      •	 Strengthen IiP’s role as coordinator for skills initiatives.
                      •	 Strengthen aftercare services for existing investors to help them grow and reinvest.
                      •	 Focus on cluster-building in strategic sectors, and launch a pilot linkages program.
                      Advocacy Services:
                      •	 Regularly collect foreign investors’ issues and promote their solution with government officials.
                      •	 Consider a collaboration with PAIH to expand the reach of IiP’s advocacy services.
                      •	 Organize issue- or sector-specific meetings between investors and/or business organizations
                         with local government institutions.

Source: Authors’ analysis using IPA benchmarking and interviews.
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The strategic
context — factors driving
change in the global
landscape for FDI
22                              Inputs to the FDI strategy for Invest in Pomerania                    SYNTHESIS NOTE




                                Global megatrends impacting FDI
                                In preparing the next generation FDI strategy for the Pomerania region, global
                                trends that can have a strong impact on the region’s FDI ambitions must be taken
                                into account. These global megatrends provide the strategic backdrop against which
                                the strategy has been prepared and against which it will be implemented in the com-
                                ing years. Several transformational megatrends are currently reshaping the global
                                landscape for FDI, including COVID-19; Russia’s war in Ukraine; increasing infla-
                                tion levels across Europe; climate change and an increased focus on sustainability;
                                Industry 4.0 and the new industrial revolution; shifts in global trade patterns; and
                                the growing global trend toward more protectionist investment and trade policies.
                                These trends have already had a lasting impact on global FDI flows and the oper-
                                ation of multinational enterprises (MNEs). They will continue to play a transfor-
                                mational role around the globe, thus presenting specific risks and opportunities
                                for the Pomerania region in developing its FDI strategy.

TABLE 3.1  Key global megatrends at a glance


             COVID-19 has introduced unprecedented shocks to the global economy and FDI, while also
             accelerating many preexisting global trends. The pandemic caused significant declines in investor
             confidence, large-scale disruption in global FDI flows in 2020/21 — including a 42 percent reduction
             in FDI flows from an already declining basis prior to the pandemic — and severe disruptions to supply
             chains essential for the operation of global value chains (GVC), with varying effects across sectors. The
COVID-19     likelihood of subsequent waves of the pandemic and new potential variants presents a challenge for
             global economic recovery and creates a sustained environment of uncertainty. The pandemic marked
             an increase in protectionist measures toward investment globally. A significant number of new FDI
             restrictions have been introduced since the start of the pandemic, largely focusing on FDI screening
             measures, with a majority occurring in developed countries.a These increasingly protectionist trends
             could also have effects upon global FDI flows, with certain countries and regions making themselves
             less open to potential investment. On the bright side, specific opportunities for the Pomerania region
             may arise from the pandemic. MNEs’ reactions to value chain disruptions may create new investment
             opportunities in sectors that were previously driven by cost considerations only. To the extent that
             additional factors like supply chain autonomy play a more prominent role, Pomerania might benefit
             from new opportunities to upgrade existing manufacturing operations and from investment reshoring
             along the value chain.

             Impact on Pomerania FDI strategy
             Opportunities:                                           Risks:
             •	 New opportunities may arise in sectors where          •	 New screening mechanisms introduced by
                investment decisions were previously driven by           Poland could dampen investor interest in the
                cost optimization only, but that in the future will      country in the short term, with trickle-down
                increasingly depend on supply chain reliability          effects on Pomerania as well.
                considerations.                                       •	 Extensions of such measures beyond the initially
             •	 Opportunities may open for upgrading existing            indicated timeframe of two years would also
                manufacturing operations along the value chain           send a negative signal to investors.
                (reshoring and nearshoring).                          •	 Reconfiguration of MNE supply chains in the
             •	 New FDI restrictions and screening mechanisms            context of the pandemic can lead to reallocation
                by competitor countries could divert investment          of production capacities and disinvestments in
                flows to Poland/Pomerania.                               Poland.
                                           Chapter 3                The strategic context                                    23




                The war in Ukraine is expected to have major implications on global economic growth and will also
                impact FDI flows. The timing of the invasion, as the global economy is still attempting to recover from
                the COVID-19 crisis, corresponds to a challenging period as inflation is on the rise in many countries
                and disruptions to investment flows, trade, and global production are still in the midst of recovery. It is
                expected that the war will have acute impacts on commodity markets, particularly energy and food,
War in          global logistics, supply chains, FDI flows, and specific sectors to varying degrees.b Emerging market
Ukraine         and developing economies in the Europe and Central Asia region are expected to bear the brunt of the
                economic effects of the war in Ukraine.c It is now expected that the ECA region’s economy will shrink
                by more than 4 percent in 2022, while prior to the onset of the war it was forecast to have 3 percent
                growth. This would represent a shock twice the size of that felt due to the COVID-19 pandemic.d Spill-
                over effects on Poland from the war in Ukraine are expected to be significant. The displacement of
                Ukrainians; increasing commodity prices, including for energy; trade disruptions; and shifts in inves-
                tor confidence are all expected to affect the Polish economy in varying ways. Increasing commodity
                prices, particularly related to energy, paired with Poland’s historical dependence on Russia for its
                energy supply and recent suspensions in energy supplies by Russia, are expected to negatively impact
                the economy. Poland has limited inward and outward FDI stock exposure in Russia and Ukraine;e how-
                ever, the broader effects of the war in Ukraine on FDI flows for Poland and Pomerania are unclear.

                Impact on Pomerania FDI strategy
                Opportunities:                                          Risks:
                •	 Labor force and market demand will increase          •	 Poland is dependent on energy supplies from
                   due to the inflow of displaced people.                  Russia.
                •	 Investment projects from the conflict-affected       •	 The war may generally dampen investor confi-
                   countries may be rerouted to Poland.                    dence and delay investment decisions.

                Inflation rates in advanced economies are at their highest since 2008, with emerging markets
                and developing economies reaching their highest rates since 2011.f The COVID-19 pandemic and
                its related supply chain disruptions and increased logistics costs, increases in food and energy prices,
                and the exacerbating effects of the war in Ukraine all contribute to rising inflation rates. In Poland,
                inflation has accelerated since mid-2021, reaching 8.5 percent in February 2022 and surpassing 12
Rising Infla-   percent in April 2022,g which exceeds the upper bound of the targeted range.h The World Bank’s
tion            spring 2022 Economic Update forecasts that economic growth in Poland will decelerate, citing high
                inflation among the key causes (along with the war in Ukraine). The exact impacts of high inflation on
                FDI are not entirely clear, but Poland’s lowered growth forecasts and recent economic studies point to
                the potential for lowered FDI inflows. A 2021 study found the impacts of inflation differ depending on
                the type of economy (industrialized vs. non-industrialized) and the level of inflation, with higher levels
                found to have potentially negative impacts on FDI inflows to industrialized economies.i Rising inflation
                and its underlying causes will remain an important trend to monitor and a key risk to take into account
                for Pomerania’s FDI strategy and attraction targets.

                Impact on Pomerania FDI strategy
                Opportunities:                                          Risks:
                •	 Inflation presents no obvious opportunities.         •	 The impact of inflation on FDI inflows is known
                                                                           to be stronger in developed and industrialized
                                                                           economies such as Poland.

                From offshoring to nearshoring and reshoring
                Poland — and the Pomerania region by extension — was one of the main beneficiaries of global
                off-shoring trends. The globalization of production was accompanied by a wave of companies relocat-
                ing production from their home countries to other countries with lower production costs. This move-
                ment was made possible by technological advancements, faster and cheaper transportation of goods,
Changing        and in Europe in particular, by the opening of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) economies. While
FDI Patterns    offshoring activities have slowed down to a marked degree since the Great Recession of 2007–2009,
                reshoring — the relocation of production processes back to the home country — has accelerated over
                the past decade. This trend presents both opportunities and challenges for the Pomerania region. If
                only a fraction of the planned reshoring potential is realized, the benefits for Pomerania could be signifi-
                cant due to its relatively small size.j However, offshoring activities that were at the source of many FDI pro-
                jects in Poland in the past may reach maturation and even contraction due to rising costs and automation.
24                               Inputs to the FDI strategy for Invest in Pomerania                    SYNTHESIS NOTE




Changing       Cluster development and attracting FDI into regions with well-established clusters
FDI Patterns   Clusters play an important role in establishing countries or regions as attractive locations for FDI.
(cont.)        The existence of a readily available network of potential suppliers, customers, and relevant service
               providers becomes increasingly important in MNEs’ site selection decisions. From a host country
               perspective, clusters play a crucial role in ensuring that spillovers from FDI are effectively absorbed
               by the host region. Thus, strong industry clusters can become the bedrock of countries’ and regions’
               FDI strategies. These countries need to start thinking of FDI as a means to strengthen their regional
               economies and industry clusters through infusions of new knowledge, technology and capital, and
               heightened global engagement. Supporting the evolution of new clusters and the strengthening of
               existing clusters, like the existing IT cluster, should therefore also be one of the principles underpinning
               the development of the FDI strategy for the Pomerania region.
               New forms of FDI and cross-border non-equity modes (NEM)
               Traditionally, multinational companies engaged in cross-border business either through direct owner-
               ship of foreign affiliates in host countries or by arm’s-length trade. Over the past decade, with the emer-
               gence of global value chains, this trend has been gradually changing and multinational companies are
               now increasingly also choosing alternatives to FDI to gain efficiencies or foreign market access using less
               traditional forms of investment, such as contract manufacturing, services outsourcing, contract farming,
               franchising, licensing, and management contracts.k These alternatives to establishing a physical presence
               in country through, e.g., efficiency-seeking or market-seeking FDI,l are generally referred to as non-equity
               modes (NEMs), and recognition of their importance is becoming more widespread. NEMs allow MNEs to
               access overseas markets through contracts, rather than FDI, while still exercising a significant degree of
               control over operations.m Investments made through non-equity modes generate significant development
               benefits for host countries. For example, in the automotive sector, contract manufacturing accounted for
               30 percent of global exports of automotive components and 25 percent of employment.n Given the growth
               and importance of this phenomenon for many countries, any discussion on foreign investment, private
               sector development, and related investment policy and regulatory frameworks must include NEMs as well.
               A focus on the specific requirements of NEMs may give Pomerania a competitive edge over competing
               locations. This requires realignment of investor targeting and investor servicing as NEMs-related invest-
               ment decisions often require a different set of information from traditional FDI projects.
               Changing trade policies and growing protectionism
               Recent years have seen a reversal of the long-term trend of bilateral and multinational trade deals
               reducing tariffs and trade barriers around the world. A simmering trade war between the US and
               China, for example, has led to a series of retaliatory trade tariffs on a range of goods, and protectionist
               policies are increasingly common in other countries too. Trade tensions and tariff uncertainty are seen
               by MNEs as one of the top risks threatening Europe’s FDI attractiveness. Anecdotal evidence col-
               lected during interviews with foreign investors in Pomerania confirms that some foreign investors are
               already prioritizing current and expected future EU-USA and China-USA trade tariff differentials in their
               upcoming FDI site-selection decisions. While the EU economies may benefit from the growing trade
               tensions between the US and China, new EU FDI screening policies could have the opposite effect and
               discourage acquisitions in selected sectors.

               Impact on Pomerania FDI strategy
               Opportunities:                                         Risks:
               •	 Nearshoring/reshoring: Even if only a fraction of   •	 Nearshoring/reshoring: The offshoring activities
                  the projected nearshoring potential is realized,       that were the source of many FDI projects in
                  the benefits for Pomerania could be significant        Poland in the past may reach maturation and
                  due to its relatively small size.                      even contraction due to rising costs and automa-
               •	 Clusters: Opportunities for Pomerania relate           tion. GVC reconfiguration can lead to disinvest-
                  to attracting specialist support companies to          ment in Pomerania.
                  increase cluster value addition and enhance the     •	 Clusters: The public sector may not be able to
                  enabling environment of existing clusters (such        accurately identify clusters’ business needs and
                  as the IT cluster).                                    government-driven cluster development may
               •	 NEMs: A specific focus on attracting NEMs can          therefore support nonperforming clusters with
                  give Pomerania a competitive edge over com-            little contribution to meeting regional economic
                  peting locations. This requires realigning inves-      development objectives.
                  tor targeting and investor services provision as    •	 NEMs: Existing NEMs in the Pomerania region
                  part of the new FDI strategy.                          might face similar competitiveness issues as
                                           Chapter 3              The strategic context                                        25




Changing         •	 Trade policies: Protectionist trade policies          offshoring activities in traditional manufacturing
FDI Patterns        between the US and China can favor European           sectors (see above), or they could be affected
(cont.)             investment locations, which allow tapping             by new disruptive technologies, such as robotic
                    into one of the lowest average tariffs (under 3       process automation.
                    percent) in the world, governed by World Trade     •	 Trade policies: Protectionist trade policies make
                    Organization (WTO) rules.                             it less attractive for MNEs to offshore affiliates
                                                                          and may discourage the takeover of Polish com-
                                                                          panies by foreign acquirers.

                 The COVID-19 pandemic has triggered an increased awareness of the importance of sustainabil-
                 ity and climate change. The leaders of major economies pledged to act on climate change, with the
                 Paris Climate Agreement outlining a framework to reduce global emissions based on key climate
                 actions, major economies pledging to take aggressive action in reducing carbon emissions, and the EU
                 announcing its Green Deal committing the bloc to climate neutrality by 2050 — calling it a lifeline out
Sustainability   of the COVID-19 pandemic. Governments have been adopting additional measures related to sustain-
and Climate      ability, with investment agreements and investor obligations being key areas of focus.o Investors have
Change           also cited taking additional steps toward sustainability, though largely driven by pressure from local
                 governments and their parent companies.p FDI has a role to play in limiting climate change by backing
                 projects that reduce CO2 emissions, as well as green projects that promote sustainable development.
                 Climate change commitments present new opportunities for businesses and investors, while also
                 causing significant changes in existing sectors, like automotive. Sustainability and pressure toward
                 decarbonization will create opportunities and challenges for FDI that affect site-selection criteria as
                 investors adapt to meet increasing sustainability obligations. In 2020, for the first time since fDi Mar-
                 kets began recording, renewable energy replaced coal, oil, and gas as the top sector for FDI globally.q
                 Investment in clean energy infrastructure will need to be scaled up significantly in the coming years to
                 the support the broader development economic and climate agenda. Given strains on public finance,
                 engaging the private sector and foreign investors will be critical.

                 Impact on Pomerania FDI strategy
                 Opportunities:                                        Risks:
                 •	 Massive private investment is required to meet     •	 Significant adjustments will be required in “tradi-
                    climate change commitments, presenting huge           tional” industry sectors, with potential challenges
                    untapped potential for FDI.                           for existing investment projects in the Pomera-
                 •	 The Pomerania region possesses competitive            nia region.
                    potential, specifically in the off-shore wind gen-
                    eration sector.
                 •	 Access to EU green funds may flow to Pomerania.

                 Industry 4.0 continues to reshape production processes and how businesses interact with their
                 customers and suppliers. As a result, the distinction between industry and services is less relevant as
                 digital technologies are connected with industrial products and services into hybrid products that are
                 neither goods nor services exclusively. In the Industry 4.0 investment environment, the key to attract-
                 ing inbound projects is to develop agile economies that embrace innovation. Foreign investors who are
Industry 4.0     creating new technologies require investor-friendly regulations that foster rather than stifle innovation.
                 Economies can adapt to the digital economy under 4.0 by providing investors with tax credits and
                 other incentives that help technology start-ups. To become attractive locations for FDI in 4.0, countries
                 need to develop regulatory frameworks that encourage innovation. Pomerania has the opportunity to
                 leverage regional EU innovation funds as investment incentives to support projects that bring about
                 technological or organizational innovation.


                 Impact on Pomerania FDI strategy
                 Opportunities:                                        Risks:
                 •	 Industry 4.0 has the potential to transform        •	 FDI based on Industry 4.0 technologies may by-
                    “traditional” sectors into generators of high         pass traditional production centers in the CEE re-
                    value-added and sophisticated jobs, thus better       gion, as such FDI is driven by different site-selection
                    aligning them with Pomerania’s regional eco-          factors, i.e., it relies less on typical competitiveness
                    nomic development objectives.                         factors such as low labor and production costs.
26                                       Inputs to the FDI strategy for Invest in Pomerania                             SYNTHESIS NOTE




Industry 4.0        •	 Industry 4.0 can attract new businesses in new
(cont.)                upstream value chains to Pomerania, including
                       in high-tech engineering, electronic, and IT
                       services sectors.
                    •	 Pomerania has the ability to leverage regional
                       EU innovation funds as investment incentives to
                       support projects that bring about technological
                       or organizational innovation.

Source: World Bank.
a.	Some countries, however, have liberalized FDI restrictions; examples include China, which allows 100 percent foreign ownership in
   fund management, and the UAE, which allows 100 percent foreign ownership of domestic companies.
b.	M. Ruta, ed. (2022), The Impact of the War in Ukraine on Global Trade and Investment (Washington, DC: World Bank).
c.	World Bank (2022), ECA Economic Update Spring 2022.
d.	World Bank (2022), ECA Economic Update Spring 2022.
e.	World Bank (2022), ECA Economic Brief.
 f.	https://voxeu.org/article/anchoring-inflation-expectations-emerging-and-developing-economies.
g.	https://stat.gov.pl/en/.
h.	World Bank (2022), ECA Economic Update Spring 2022.
 i.	Komla Agudze and Oyakhilome Ibhagui (2021), Inflation and FDI in Industrialized and Developing Economies,” International Review of
    Applied Economics 35(5): 749 – 64.
 j.	For instance, a recent announcement from Intel that it would start producing chips for automakers in Europe within six to nine
    months to help alleviate a shortage that has disrupted vehicle production around the world translates into FDI of up to US$80 billion;
    www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/intel-says-it-will-reserve-ireland-chip-factory-capacity-automakers-2021-09-07/.
k.	NEMs are common in hotels and tourism, IT, and the electric appliances sector, where the foreign investors’ “investment” consists of
   making available its brand name, intellectual property, know-how, technology, skills, and/or business processes.
 l.	Market-seeking FDI is motivated by an investor’s interest in serving domestic or regional markets. Efficiency-seeking FDI refers to
    FDI that comes into a country seeking to benefit from factors that enable it to compete in international markets.
m.	Non-equity and equity modes of investment are not mutually exclusive, and often multinational companies that enter a host country using
   non-equity modes over time decide to invest more directly through full or partial ownership, creating foreign subsidiaries or joint ventures.
n.	UNCTAD (2011), World Investment Report.
o.	International investment agreements (IIA) and trade agreements increasingly include clauses related to sustainable development/
   green investment and environmental obligations.
p.	The World Bank’s MNE Pulse Survey shows that almost half of MNE affiliates reported taking steps to increase sustainability and
   decarbonize their products and services, with a majority citing pressure from local governments as a key reason why.
q.	According to estimated capital investment, accounting for US$87.2 billion; see the fDi Report (2021), “Global Greenfield Investment
   Trends,” the Financial Times Group, available at https://report.fdiintelligence.com.



                                         The implications of global megatrends for FDI sector
                                         targeting in the context of this strategy

                                         Global megatrends, including COVID-19, the war in Ukraine, rising inflation, and
                                         climate change, all have the potential to impact FDI flows on a global scale. While
                                         these developments will continue to dampen the global economy and generate a
                                         great deal of uncertainty for investors for a protracted period of time, their im-
                                         pact will differ across sectors. Global value chains with significant production op-
                                         erations in China could be particularly negatively impacted by China’s zero Covid
                                         policy and related lockdowns, should they resume. This would include the auto-
                                         motive sector, electronics, and home appliances but could also entail ripple effects
                                         on other sectors. 5 The war in Ukraine is also expected to have negative impacts


                                         5. https://time.com/6168543/china-zero-covid-shanghai-lockdown-economy-impact/.
                                                  Chapter 3                The strategic context                            27




on the production of inputs for the automotive sector.6 These developments could
dampen IiP’s efforts to successfully attract FDI in these target sectors. On the other
hand, supply chain disruptions from the onset of the COVID-19 crisis also caused
a global shortage in semiconductors that led the EU and the US to prioritize semi-
conductor production “at home” to avoid future disruptions, which may actual-
ly benefit Pomerania in its efforts to attract FDI in the sector. Rising global energy
prices and Poland’s reliance on Russia for imported oil and gas present key chal-
lenges in the short term but may motivate additional investment in renewable en-
ergy — another key sector targeted by this strategy.

Detailed projections of future sectoral FDI trends currently remain challenging,
as several of the mentioned crises are still unfolding. It is nevertheless important
for IiP to account for these megatrends when devising its new FDI sector target-
ing strategy to systematically leverage opportunities and hedge its risks in terms
of sectors targeted. Therefore, the new FDI strategy for IiP proposes the promo-
tion of a portfolio of priority sectors based on their potential value addition for the
Pomerania region, but also taking into account risk considerations and potential
opportunities in light of global megatrends. This approach represents good prac-
tice generally, but in this particular case it specifically serves to mitigate potential
effects of global megatrends by having a broader portfolio of tiered target sectors
that allow for alternative options for successful FDI attraction.



Global and regional FDI trends

Global and regional FDI trends depict the FDI “demand side” dynamics against
which Pomerania’s FDI strategy is developed. In developing its FDI ambitions, the
region needs to take into account relevant sectoral trends on the global and regional
levels to calibrate its FDI attraction targets and align its priorities with MNE’s sec-
toral investment priorities. Table 2.2 provides a brief overview of key FDI trends
at the global, regional, national, and subnational level based on both FDI inflow
data and greenfield FDI project announcement data.

TABLE 3.2  Global, regional, national, and subnational FDI trends
overview


                   Global FDI flows have been on a continuous decline since their 2015 peak. After a record of US$2.04
                   trillion of FDI in 2015, sizeable declines were registered in 2017 and 2018, and, after a modest increase in
                   2019, a further dramatic fall in 2020 caused by the COVID-19 crisis. In 2020, global FDI flows dropped by
                   35 percent to US$1 trillion, from US$1.5 trillion in 2019. This is almost 20 percent below the 2009 trough
                   after the global financial crisis. The lockdowns around the world in response to the COVID-19 pandemic
Global             slowed existing investment projects, and the prospects of a recession led multinational enterprises to
Trends             reassess new projects. The fall in FDI was significantly sharper than the fall in gross domestic product
                   (GDP) and trade.




6. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2022/04/19/world-economic-outlook-april-2022.
28                                      Inputs to the FDI strategy for Invest in Pomerania                           SYNTHESIS NOTE




                  The EU countries are recipients of approximately one-third of overall global FDI inflows. During
                  the last decade (January 2011 to May 2021), Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries accounted
                  for about 6 percent of recorded FDI projects, while Poland received one-third of the CEE FDI inflow.
                  Automotive components, real estate, plastics, metals, and transportation and warehousing represent
                  the top sectors receiving FDI in emerging Europe. Poland itself attracts a relatively large share (>20%)
Regional          of real estate, consumer electronics, plastics, transportation and warehousing, consumer products,
Trends            software and IT services, and business services.


                  FDI inflows in Poland largely follow general trends of FDI inflows into the EU. The total number of
                  projects and the value of FDI both experienced a sharp increase and peak during the pre–global finan-
                  cial crisis years. In the years around the financial crisis (2007 – 2009), FDI in both Europe and Poland
                  experienced a major slowdown. The impact of the global COVID-19 crisis was felt less in Poland than in
                  the rest of the EU — Poland experienced a 20 percent contraction in FDI inflows only, compared to the
Trends in         over 70 percent drop in FDI inflows to the EU.
Poland
                  Poland — like other new Central European EU member states — has greatly benefited from its
                  access to the EU internal market. In combination with the free movement of capital, the internal
                  market has reduced the risk and cost of investing across borders and has thus facilitated intra-Euro-
                  pean FDI. The internal market has enabled European firms to split up their value chains and locate
                  production in the most cost-efficient location. Production relocation from Western to Central/Eastern
                  Europe due to the production cost differential is still an important driver of intra-European FDI flows.
                  Poland, consequently, receives a larger share of intra-European than extra-European FDI.a More than
                  two-thirds of FDI in Poland come from EU-based firms, Germany being the largest ultimate investing
                  country, responsible for 20.3 percent of total FDI (US$43.9 billion), followed by France, whose share
                  amounted to 9.6 percent (US$20.7 billion).b


                  The Pomerania region shows a strong FDI performance track record. The fDi Markets databasec
                  records 202 FDI projects for the period of January 2011 to May 2021, creating an estimated 41,422 jobs.
                  Comparing this data with other Polish regions, it appears that the Pomerania region has been rela-
                  tively more successful in attracting FDI.
                  For the last decade, the Pomerania region’s top five sectors in terms of number of projects were
Trends in
                  real estate, software & IT services, transportation and warehousing, business services, and metals.
Pomerania
                  In comparison with Poland and other Emerging Europe countries,d Pomerania has a larger share of
                  FDI projects in software and IT services and business services, demonstrating strong competitiveness
                  for FDI attraction in these sectors. In both Poland and the Pomerania region, about one-quarter of FDI
                  projects come from expansions, which is a higher share than in Emerging Europe, suggesting inves-
                  tors’ satisfaction with the investment climate in the country and region. Data on distribution of FDI
                  projects by business activities suggest that the Pomerania region has a higher share of service and
                  R&D-oriented projects and less FDI in manufacturing and construction activities than Poland, demon-
                  strating its clear competitive advantage for attracting more knowledge-intensive FDI.e


Source: World Bank.
a.	ESPON (2018), “The World in Europe: Global FDI Flows toward Europe,” available at https://www.espon.eu/fdi.
b.	National Bank of Poland (Narodowy Bank Polski; 2019), 2019 FDI in Poland Statistics, available at https://www.nbp.pl/homen.aspx?f=/
   en/publikacje/ziben/ziben.html.
c.	The Financial Times’ fDi Markets database is the most comprehensive online database of cross-border greenfield investments
   available (www.fdimarkets.com). fDi Markets collects unique information on greenfield FDI project announcements for all countries
   in the world, providing detailed statistics on time, sector, location of investment, as well as region of origin of the investing company
   and estimates on the investment value and jobs directly created since 2003. FDI announcement data does not, by its nature, capture
   all greenfield FDI projects, and thus cannot be expected to correspond directly to FDI inflow amounts or equal the total number of
   new projects/firms established in a country during the time period covered. fDi data is, however, useful for understanding FDI trends,
   particularly by sector, gauging investor sentiments, and comparing regions and economies.
d.	Emerging Europe is an FDI Markets country grouping containing Albania, Belarus, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus,
   Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Kosovo, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Russia, Ser-
   bia, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Turkey, and Ukraine.
e.	Source: fDi Markets data; authors’ calculations.
      R 4
    TE
  AP
CH




Leveraging FDI
for Pomerania’s
economic
development
32   Inputs to the FDI strategy for Invest in Pomerania                                   SYNTHESIS NOTE




     The Pomerania region has managed a successful development trajectory. Between
     2010 and 2019, the region decreased its unemployment rate from 8.5 percent to 2.8
     percent, increased its economically active population from 870,000 to 1,058,000,
     and raised its level of GDP per capita from €9,500 to €12,600.7

     Foreign direct investment (FDI) appears to have contributed positively to Pomerania’s
     growth. A total of 201 FDI projects were implemented between 2011 and 2021,
     contributing to an estimated 41,000 jobs in the region. Pomerania has been more
     successful in attracting FDI than other Polish regions. With US$6.9 billion of FDI
     projects in Pomerania announced in the period from 2011 to 2021, the region at-
     tracted close to 7 percent of the US$127.8 billion for all of Poland.8

     Despite this impressive FDI track record, the realization is growing that the FDI
     strategy must be revisited to meet the region’s new development objectives and
     adapt to ongoing global economic megatrends and the changing nature of the re-
     gion’s sources of competitiveness. The new FDI strategy will provide a roadmap for
     maximizing the benefits and contributions of FDI toward achieving Pomerania’s re-
     gional development objectives as outlined in Pomerania Voivodeship Development
     Strategy 2030.9

     The ambition for the FDI Strategy is framed using six interlinked pillars: produc-
     tivity, high-quality jobs, value chains, regional development, low carbon intensity,
     and social inclusion. Under each of these pillars, Invest in Pomerania, as the des-
     ignated lead agency in charge of implementing the FDI strategy, will implement a
     set of targeted activities as summarized in the Figure 4.1.

     In implementing the FDI Strategy, Invest in Pomerania will capitalize on opportuni-
     ties to provide MNEs with solutions to the challenges they face in the fast-changing
     global environment. Invest in Pomerania will partner with existing clients to safe-
     guard and enhance their business experience in the Pomerania region, while also
     attracting the next generation of leading-edge MNEs in the core sectors of focus.
     Invest in Pomerania will place sustainable growth at the center of its strategy, in line
     with regional government policy, international consensus, the vision of its clients,
     and the demands of citizens. The agency will seek growth that meets the needs of
     the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own
     needs, while fostering an inclusive, sustainable, and resilient economy and society.


     7. Based on Eurostat data for 2011 to 2019, except GDP per capita data available only until 2018.
     Unemployment data for 2020 suggest a higher unemployment rate of 5.9%, likely due to COVID-19 economic
     slowdown, but still well below EU average of 7.0%. Note: the report largely utilizes Eurostat data with mul-
     tiple justifications: (1) to align with the other deliverables produced under the RAS agreement (i.e., the com-
     ponent one report providing an Impact Evaluation of “Invest in Pomerania” (2011 – 2020); (2) to allow for
     internationally comparable figures and maintain uniform definitions (e.g., unemployment data published by
     Statistics Poland comprise persons working on private farms as part of economically active population and
     therefore differ from Eurostat statistics).
     8. Analysis of FDI Markets data, recorded data for January 2011 to May 2021.
     9. Strategia Rozwoju Województwa Pomorskiego 2030, available at https://strategia2030.pomorskie.eu/
     wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Zalacznik-do-uchwaly_SWP_376_XXXI_21_SRWP2030_120421.pdf
    Chapter 4              Leveraging FDI for Pomerania’s economic development                                                       33




FIGURE 4.1  Projected contributions to regional economic development priorities


                                                                              Shift em-
                                                                              phasis to tech-
                                                                              nology- and knowl-
                                                                              edge- intensive FDI

                                                      Promote                 Promote linkages betwen FDI
                                                FDI that cre-                 and local firms
                                             ates job opportu-
                                          nities for women,                    Build partnerships with aca-
                                         migrants, and                                 demia & support tal-
                                       older work-                                       ent develop-
                                           ers               l                 Pro          ment
                                                          cia n                tiv
                                                                                   du
                             Pro-                       So usio                   ity c-                    Pro-
                                                          l
                           mote                         nc                                              mote FDI
                                                                                                    that creates
                                                          i

                          green/low-car-
                          bon FDI and FDI                                                         high earnings
                         in services                                                               and high-securi-




                                                                                          High
                                             Low carbon




                                                                                                   ty jobs
                                              intensity




                         Support use or




                                                                                             jobs
                                                                                              -quality
                         production of                                                                    Support talent
                         clean technolo-                                                                  development
                         gies and FDI in                                                                  and internal & in-
                          the renewable                                                                  ternational attrac-
                           energy                                                                          tion of highly
                            sector                        Re                                                   skilled la-
                                                                                      e
                                                               gi                  lu                               bor
                                                                    on          V a ain
                                                                         s       c h
                                         Pro-                                                Pro-
                                     mote FDI                                            mote ex-
                                    opportunities out-                                port- oriented and
                                      side the TriCity area                     efficiency-driven FDI

                                            Promote linkag-                   Support cluster- based
                                               es between FDI                 public-private dialogue
                                                   and local                  focusing on the re-
                                                         firms                 gion's intl. com-
                                                                              petitiveness



Source: World Bank.


Invest in Pomerania will elaborate specific development targets and activities aligned
with the six strategic priorities outlined above to operationalize the strategy. An
example is provided in Box 4.1.


   BOX 4.1  By 2027 Invest in Pomerania will:

   1.	 Win      investments in technology- and                               5.	 Target a           % increase in FDI and academia
       knowledge-intensive sectors to support creation                           linkages.
       of     high-quality jobs.                                             6.	 Win       investments outside the TriCity area to
   2.	 Support expansion of at least        % of existing FDI                    promote regional development.
       projects based in Pomerania.                                          7.	 Support/win at least     FDI projects with clear
   3.	 Launch a new reskilling initiative that will lead to                      decarbonization and/or responsible production
       upskilling of     jobs in the target sectors.                             programs.
   4.	 Target a     % increase in linkages between FDI                       8.	 Achieve     % of economic participation of women
       and local firms.                                                          and     % of workers aged 55 – 64 within FDI
                                                                                 projects based in Pomerania.
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Prioritizing sectors
for promotion
36   Inputs to the FDI strategy for Invest in Pomerania                       SYNTHESIS NOTE




     Rationale for investor targeting
     Investor targeting — that is, proactively reaching out to investors identified as being
     desirable and likely to invest and presenting them with tailored business cases to
     help them select a given location — is the main proactive element of any location’s
     wider investment promotion strategy. Companies seeking to expand internationally
     are likely to compare several possible sites against a set of predetermined criteria to
     arrive at the best investment location for them. In general, criteria used by investors
     to compare locations for investment in any sector may be both quantitative and qual-
     itative, typically covering aspects of doing business like access to markets, operat-
     ing costs, various forms of risk, and quality of life. In the long term, Pomerania can
     improve the region’s competitiveness by improving its investment climate, infrastruc-
     ture, workforce, and policy support for attractive sectors. In the short term, Invest
     in Pomerania can improve its chances by making sure that the Pomerania region
     makes it onto potential investors’ lists of possible investment locations and poten-
     tial investors have access to the most complete and positively framed information
     possible. Targeting seeks to accomplish these two tasks by seeking out and directly
     engaging investors identified as having high potential interest in a particular location.

     Investor targeting, if planned and delivered properly, can provide Pomerania with
     some influence over the types of investment attracted and, whether successful or
     not, provides valuable insights into what the Pomerania region can do to improve
     its attractiveness to investors. Without proactive outreach, Pomerania’s invest-
     ment promotion depends on investors to “make the first move.” However, many
     regions suffer from poor images or weak investment track records and may not be
     considered by the most attractive investors. Global evidence shows that proactive
     investor outreach is one of the most effective ways for regions to attract sufficient
     interest from potential investors who would otherwise not consider their locations.

     Strategic targeting is generally regarded as the most effective method for FDI pro-
     motion, regardless of the country’s economic background. Empirical evidence
     demonstrates that targeting has been successful, both in small regions and large
     countries and in emerging and mature economies, as well as with investment pro-
     motion agencies (IPAs) regardless of budget size.




     Priority sectors identified
     for FDI promotion
     Proactive investment promotion should be geared toward attracting and winning invest-
     ment in sectors where Pomerania has a competitive advantage and that at the same time
     contribute positively to meeting the region’s development goals. Proactive investor target-
     ing requires identifying competitive (sub)sectors that might be best placed to attract new
     investments. Competitive benchmarking at the sector level is designed to reveal the degree
     of international competitiveness across different sectors. It is done to isolate and prioritize
                               Chapter 5                Prioritizing sectors for promotion                                      37




the sectors with the strongest business case to attract investment. Virtually all countries
worldwide find themselves competing for FDI in a few key sectors of the economy and less
so in others. Often there is little understanding of the important role that a marketing ef-
fort focused in a few high-priority sectors can play in an investment promotion strategy.

Today, countries that successfully attract FDI generally have narrowed down their
“long list” of potential sectors into a more manageable number — seldom more
than four to six — high-priority sectors. Best-in-class IPAs adopt a proactive invest-
ment promotion strategy targeting this small number of key sectors; examples are
Singapore (ICT and biotechnology), Costa Rica (medical devices and ICT), and
Ireland (ICT, life sciences, and globally traded services).

Competitive benchmarking of sectors conducted in the context of developing this
strategy revealed a set of sectors that fulfill the competitiveness criteria outlined
above. In its proactive investment promotion activities, Invest in Pomerania should
focus on the following two tiers of sectors (Figure 5.1).

FIGURE 5.1  FDI sector targeting

                  5.0



                  4.5

                                 Biotechnology
                                                                                                                  SSCs & BPOs
                 4.0
                                                                                                       Auto Parts
                                         Pharmaceutical                                                & Equipment
                                                                             Semiconductors
                                                                                                                  Software &
                                                                                                                  IT Services
                  3.5
                                                                                     Renewable
 Desirability                                                                        energy
 value of FDI
for Pomerania
                  3.0
                                             Electronic & Electrical
                                                       Equipment

                                                 Industrial                        Ship building
                  2.5                            Equipment




                  2.0



                  1.5
                        1.5        2.0              2.5                3.0              3.5        4.0                4.5       5.0


                                                      Feasibility attractiveness of Pomerania to FDI

Source: World Bank.


•	 Tier I “ready-to-go-sectors”: Auto Parts & Equipment, SSCs & BPOs and Soft-
   ware and IT Services. Tier I encompasses sectors where FDI can be promoted in
38                                     Inputs to the FDI strategy for Invest in Pomerania                        SYNTHESIS NOTE




                                           the short- to mid-term. These are sectors of Pomerania’s comparative advantage as
                                           identified by the analysis conducted for this strategy. They are also sectors expected
                                           to be largely resilient or to provide potential opportunities in the face of COVID-19
                                           (e.g., automotive nearshoring) and to not be greatly affected by the war in neighbor-
                                           ing Ukraine. These sectors will attract a mix of FDI — some geared toward domes-
                                           tic markets, some using Pomerania as a production/service base for export. They
                                           should be proactively targeted by Invest in Pomerania through its proactive inves-
                                           tor outreach efforts, while the voivodeship government will continue improving the
                                           quality of the investment climate, particularly in infrastructure, quality of logis-
                                           tics, availability of ICT, and improvement of local suppliers’ quantity and quality.

                                       •	 Tier II “aspirational sectors”: Semiconductors, Renewable Energy. Tier II en-
                                          compasses aspirational sectors where FDI may show interest in the mid- to long-
                                          term or where some niche investment opportunities can be pursued. These sectors
                                          show a strong global demand for new investment (semiconductors) or provide
                                          value chain development opportunities for primary resource/market seeking FDI
                                          (renewable energy). Provided that Pomerania meets investors’ site-selection crite-
                                          ria, these sectors could show a good potential to attract investment to the region.

                                       Placing these Tier I and II sectors into a wider economic context and in line with
                                       emerging global industry trends, they can be grouped into five main buckets with
                                       individual approaches and objectives for promotion (Figure 5.2).

FIGURE 5.2  Core target sectors and key investment opportunities




     Global Business                  Digital              High-tech                       Mobility                 Renewable
         Services                 Technology               Manufacturing                 (Auto Parts                  Energy
      (SSCs & BPOs)                (Software &             & Design                     & Equipment)                 (Offshore
                                   IT Services)            (Semiconductors)                                        Wind Energy)

 In Global Business Ser-                                                                In Mobility, invest-
   vices, the continuing     In Digital Technology,       In High-tech Manu-             ment opportuni-         In Renewable Ener-
   expansion of IT-ena-      attraction and expan-      facturing & Design, in-       ties are to be found     gy, promoting linkag-
    bled services repre-      sion services and ad-      vestment opportuni-           in electric vehicle /   es among existing in-
  sents new investment         vocacy services tar-     ties may arise because      IT-related automotive        vestors and domes-
  opportunities for both     geted at other indus-      of supply chain recon-       sector suppliers and       tic firms, creating co-
   new and existing in-        tries focused on ex-       figurations resulting       component special-        operation networks to
  vestors. Building link-     panding their opera-       from increased glob-         ists; marketing ser-     bundle resources, and
    ages across sectors,      tions into IT services,   al demand in this sec-      vices at the attraction      promoting the mar-
  promoting cross-sec-         and digital technol-        tor. Marketing ser-      and expansion phase,        ket to new operators
  toral investment, pro-      ogy should be at the        vices during the at-           assistance servic-    are the key services IiP
  moting reinvestment          core of IiP’s promo-      traction phase, assis-      es during the estab-          should consider.
  and horizontal expan-            tional effort.          tance services dur-       lishment phase (e.g.,
    sion of existing FDI                                ing the establishment        permitting and land
   as well as vertical ex-                                phase, and advoca-           leasing), and advo-
    pansion (SSC/BPO                                      cy services based on        cacy services will be
  spin-offs from manu-                                    aftercare programs        critical for promoting
  facturing FDI) should                                  will bring the biggest          FDI in this sector.
    be IiP’s key promo-                                 value added to foreign
        tional focus.                                   investors in this sector.


Source: World Bank.
                             Chapter 5               Prioritizing sectors for promotion                                  39




The Pomerania region value
proposition in priority sectors
Articulating compelling value propositions for investors in the sectors targeted
by this strategy is essential to implement targeted investment promotion efforts.
Private sector consultations and the FDI Sector Scan assessments were used to
identify the key competitiveness factors that make up Pomerania’s value proposi-
tion to investors in the targeted sectors. Table 5.1 summarizes the main competi-
tiveness drivers for the Pomerania region in each of the identified priority sectors.
They are strong human resources, cost competitiveness, a proven track record in
specific sectors, and strong future growth potential.

TABLE 5.1  Main sources of target sectors’ competitiveness

          Global Business Services
          (SSCs & BPOs)

 Human            •	 Excellent skill base.
 Resources        •	 Constant supply of high skilled graduates from local universities.

 Cost Competi-    •	 Relatively low labor costs compared to regional competitors (CEE countries).
 tiveness         •	 Established sectoral hub helps provide access to basic infrastructure required to operate at effec-
                     tive cost levels in Pomerania.

 Proven Track     •	 Poland is an established services hub in SSC and BPO.
 Record           •	 Specifically, the TriCity area is considered a Tier 2 location.

 Future Growth    •	 Constantly increasing global FDI into the sector.
 Potential        •	 Pomerania offers a balance between lower costs and higher skill sets within Poland and the wider
                     CEE region.

          Digital Technology
          (Software & IT services)

 Human            •	 High skill levels and constant supply of IT graduates into an increasingly mature IT sector with high
 Resources           complexity products (AI Chips).
                  •	 Significant number of universities and private coding schools.

 Cost Competi-    •	 With high skill levels, labor costs are relatively low.
 tiveness         •	 Available digital infrastructure and access to skills further reduce establishment costs for investors.

 Proven Track     •	 Pomerania is a well-established IT hub.
 Record           •	 Many multinational software and hardware companies are already established.

 Future Growth    •	 Digital technology is a core driver of FDI globally.
 Potential        •	 Scalability and integration of services with products increases demand for digital service solutions.

          High-tech Manufacturing & Design
          (Semiconductors)

 Human            •	 Large pool of software developers and employees with related skills.
 Resources        •	 Related skill sets in engineering and R&D in semiconductors are already present.
 Cost Competi-    •	 Relatively low labor costs, although labor costs are not one of the main driving factors of location
 tiveness            decisions.
                  •	 Proximity to mature markets and access to potentially cheap renewable energy lower investment
                     levels.
40                                     Inputs to the FDI strategy for Invest in Pomerania                     SYNTHESIS NOTE




 Proven Track         •	 Well-established semiconductor research facilities of global semiconductor MNEs.
 Record
 Future Growth        •	 COVID-induced investments into new semiconductor capacities increase FDI.
 Potential            •	 Reinvestments into locations in Pomerania strengthen the value proposition for colocation and
                         hub characteristics for a broader number of semiconductor companies.

          Mobility
          (Auto Parts & Equipment)

 Human                •	 IT and advanced software skills support latest trends in automotive and mobility product solution
 Resources               development.

 Cost Competi-        •	 With high levels of automatization, labor costs will be less significant, while access to skills will
 tiveness                increase further as a key factor. Pomerania offers solid access to a high-skill labor force.
                      •	 Combination of traditional manufacturing competencies and IT/software development offer a
                         highly attractive base for investment lowering costs of complexity of supply.

 Proven Track         •	 Battery production already established with continued new and re-investments.
 Record               •	 Automotive supplier base well established.

 Future Growth        •	 Demand for electrical vehicles and specifically sufficient batteries will remain high.
 Potential            •	 Integration of software-driven innovations with classic engineering will dominate new product
                         development, for which Pomerania offers sufficient levels of sector complexity.

          Renewable Energy
          (Offshore Wind Energy)

 Human                •	 Excellent knowledge basis for offshore technology and construction through shipbuilding and
 Resources               offshore manufacturing tradition.
                      •	 High skill levels already in place.

 Cost Competi-        •	 Relatively lower wage levels in comparison to regional competition.
 tiveness             •	 Integration between different manufacturers and equipment suppliers allows for fast adjustment
                         to specialized products, with relatively lower costs.

 Proven Track         •	 Long history in shipbuilding and offshore technology development.
 Record               •	 Hub for region in maritime technology.

 Future Growth        •	 High demand for highly specialized equipment and vehicles for the construction and operation of
 Potential               offshore wind farms.
                      •	 Constant demand for more renewable energy maintains a more supply-driven market.

Source: World Bank.




                                       Targeted investment
                                       promotion services
                                       The specific characteristics and economic development objectives for the individual
                                       target sectors identified by this strategy require a customized approach to invest-
                                       ment promotion. To fully unlock the potential of these sectors for investment attrac-
                                       tion, Invest in Pomerania will need to customize its services offering to align with
                                       the specific needs of potential as well as existing investors. Figure 5.3 suggests a
                                       specific matrix and priorities for IiP’s services offerings across the five main target
                                       sectors identified by this strategy. It is based on factors such as the sector’s stage of
                                       development in Pomerania, the presence of existing FDI firms in Pomerania, sec-
                                       toral development priorities, and others.
                                                Chapter 5                   Prioritizing sectors for promotion                                                        41




FIGURE 5.3  Focus of IiPs investment services by target sector

                                                           Attraction                   Linkages & spillovers             Entry & establishment   Retention & expansion

             Global Business Services


                   Digital Technology


High-tech Manufacturing & Design


                                    Mobility


                   Renewable Energy


Source: World Bank.                                                                                                                                           Fostering links and spillovers
                                                                                                                                                              By looking for win-win benefits

To successfully attract FDI and foster its growth in the targeted sectors, Invest in
Pomerania needs to provide coherent services offerings across the four key stages
matching the investment life cycle. The services provided by IiP across the stages
of attraction, entry and establishment, retention and expansion, and linkages and
spillovers need to be both relevant and satisfactory to meet investors’ needs.

FIGURE 5.4  The investment life cycle
                                                 Plan (define business needs)




            Transition                     ers                                                             Explore
                                         ov
                                     pill                                              At
                                    s                                                    tr
                                d                                                          a
                          an




                                                                                                 ct




                                           Fostering                  Attracting
                                                                                                   io
                           s




                                       links and                          investors
                         ge




                                                                                                     n




                                     spillovers
                       ka




                                                                    By enhancing the
                                 By looking for                    investment climate,
                    Lin




                                win-win benefits for                  promoting the loca-
                               both the investor and                  tion and supporting
                              the domestic economy                 investor's planning and
                                                                                 exploration

Expand                                                                                                                 Validate
diversify                                                   IPAs                                                       selected
     link                                                                                                              location
                          Securing their reten-
                          tion and expansion                           Assisting their entry
                                                                       and establishment
                              By ensuring that inves-
                               tors operate without                  By providing a trans-
                                sudden legal and reg-                 parent and predict-
                    Re




                                                                                                           t
                                                                                                       en




                                  ulatory changes and                able legal environ-
                     te




                                    by assisting inves-             ment and deliver-
                                                                                                      hm
                         nt




                                      tors during op-               ing information
                         io




                                                                                                      is




                                         erations and              and assistance
                                                                                                  bl
                          n




                                             expan-                    services
                                d
                                                                                                 ta
                              an




                                  e xp
                                                  sions                                          es
                                                                                         n   d
                                         an
                                              s io                               tr   ya
             Operate                                 n                      En                             Establish

                                                                                                                                           Host country location cycle
                                                                                                                                           Investor's project cycle


Source: World Bank (2020), The Comprehensive Investor Services Framework.
42                                 Inputs to the FDI strategy for Invest in Pomerania                   SYNTHESIS NOTE




                                 The services that IiP should consider delivering across the stages of the life cycle
                                 fall within four main categories of services: marketing, information, assistance,
                                 and advocacy. It is important for IiP to deliver its services in those categories con-
                                                                   sistently and at the highest level of quality stan-
FIGURE 5.5  Comprehensive investor services                        dards. Services will need to align with the needs
framework                                                          and expectations of investors, and intensity lev-
                                                                   els will vary depending on the maturity and com-
                           Entry &      Retention      Linkages
            Attraction establishment & expansion      & spillovers petitiveness of the targeted sectors (Figure 5.5).
                                                                   Specific recommendations for sharpening IiP’s
  Marketing                                                        services offerings to investors are outlined in the
                                                                   action plan for strategy implementation in the sub-
Information                                                        sequent chapter of this note.

 Assistance
                                                                        (i)	Marketing in the context of investment promo-
  Advocacy
                                                                            tion is about generating awareness of the val-
                                                                            ue that an economy can offer to international
                                                                            investors in specific sectors. It implies that an
Source: World Bank (2020), The Comprehensive Investor Services Frame-
work.                                                                       IPA (a) understands investor needs and loca-
                                                                            tion strengths, (b) develops a compelling value
                                        proposition, (c) raises awareness and positively influences the way investors think
                                        about the location, and (d) gets investors to take the next steps for investing.

                                    (ii)	Information plays a key role at a very early stage of the investment decision-mak-
                                         ing process. Companies deciding where to invest usually put together long
                                         lists of potential investment destinations before visiting them. Relevant, accu-
                                         rate, and complete information reduces uncertainty for investors and influenc-
                                         es their decisions in favor of locations that provide complete information. In-
                                         vestors discard locations for which they do not have such information, even if
                                         those locations would have been a valuable choice for their project. To deliv-
                                         er quality information services, IPAs must maintain information that is cred-
                                         ible, accurate, relevant, and comprehensive.

                                   (iii)	Assistance services proactively support investors’ exploration, establishment,
                                         operation, retention, and expansion. These fundamental IPA services reduce
                                         common constraints to investments on the ground. IPAs provide contacts, make
                                         introductions and connect investors with government officials and other stake-
                                         holders in the economy, arrange site visits, and even join meetings. IPAs solve
                                         problems at all stages of the investment cycle and frequently advise both inves-
                                         tors and government officials on how to interact for their mutual benefit. Assis-
                                         tance services can be especially important to investors from different cultures
                                         or whose home economies are far from the investment location.

                                   (iv)	Advocacy in investment promotion is about (a) understanding the issues in-
                                        vestors face, (b) advocating on their behalf, and (c) influencing stakeholders
                                        to improve the investment ecosystem so investors can operate more efficiently
                                        and smoothly. According to recent analytical work by the World Bank Group
                       Chapter 5            Prioritizing sectors for promotion   43




and the World Association of Investment Promotion Agencies (WAIPA), in-
vestors consider advocacy to be the most important service IPAs can provide.
The weaker a location’s investment climate is, the more important the IPA ad-
vocacy function becomes.
      R 6
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Key actions
for strategy
implementation
46                                   Inputs to the FDI strategy for Invest in Pomerania                               SYNTHESIS NOTE




                                     The following section provides a high-level action plan for Invest in Pomerania to
                                     implement the strategy. The proposed actions are grouped along three thematic
                                     pillars that constitute best practice in investment promotion globally (Figure 6.1).
                                     IiP will need to develop detailed implementation action plans for each of the action
                                     items described in this high-level action plan.

FIGURE 6.1  Core elements for increasing the                                   1.	 Strategic alignment and focus;
development impact of IiP                                                      2.	 Coherent institutional framework; and
                                                                               3.	 Strong investor service delivery.

                        Development Impact                                     The proposed actions are geared toward enhanc-
                                                                               ing the effectiveness of IiP, as the lead agency for
                                                                               investment promotion in the Pomerania region, in
             Higher Investor Satisfaction and Confidence
                                                                               fulfilling its mandate vis-à-vis investment attrac-
                                                                               tion. Enhancing the agency’s effectiveness along
         Strategic            Coherent                                         the three proposed dimensions will result in higher
                                                        Strong
          align-               institu-                investor                investor satisfaction and confidence and ultimate-
           ment                 tional                  service
            and                frame-                  delivery                ly stronger development impact by attracting new
           focus                work
                                                                               and expanding existing investments in Pomerania.

     National Development Plan, Investment Policies, FDI strategy              The foundational base for these key strategy ac-
                                                                               tions is the Pomerania Regional Development
Source: World Bank (2021), Global Investment Competitiveness Report
                                                                               Strategy,10 that determines the institutional frame-
2019 – 2022.                                                                   work of IiP and its service delivery model.



                                     Pillar 1:
                                     Strategic alignment and focus
                                     Sharpening Invest in Pomerania’s strategic alignment and focus is key for further
                                     scaling up the development impact of FDI. This will require developing a shared
                                     vision together with other regional stakeholders through effective dialogue with
                                     public and private sector partners. The following actions are proposed to strengthen
                                     the strategic alignment and focus.

                                                         Stakeholders                                          Expected       Cost
Actions needed                                  Timeline involved                  Output                      impacta        implications

 1.1 Reconsider the promotion of domes-            2022       Regional             FDI Promotion        Medium                None
     tic investment as part of IiP’s mandate                  government           Strategy 2022 – 2027
     and consider shifting the agency’s                       IiP Board            outlining IiP’s
     resource allocation from promoting                                            development impact
     domestic SMEs to promoting foreign                                            endorsed by IiP
     SMEs, to the extent that the funding                                          Board
     structure based on EU funds permits.




                                     10. . Strategia Rozwoju Województwa Pomorskiego 2030, available at https://strategia2030.pomorskie.eu/
                                     wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Zalacznik-do-uchwaly_SWP_376_XXXI_21_SRWP2030_120421.pdf
                        Chapter 6                 Key actions for strategy implementation                                                 47




                                                            Stakeholders                                        Expected      Cost
Actions needed                                     Timeline involved                Output                      impacta       implications

1.2 Clarify and update the agency’s                   2022      Regional            FDI Promotion Strat-        High          Low
    priority sectors in the new FDI strat-                      government          egy 2022 – 2027 out-
    egy and provide greater clarity and                         IiP Board           lining target sectors/
    consistency about priority sectors in                                           segments and types
    IiP’s communications.                                                           of FDI endorsed by
                                                                                    IiP Board

1.3 Consider increasing the share of                 2027       Regional       Each target sector/              High          Low
    resources spent on non-IT-BPO                               government     segment has a                                  (assuming
    priority sectors.                                           IiP Board      dedicated sector                               reallocation
                                                                               expert and sufficient                          of existing
                                                                European       financial resources                            resources)
                                                                Commission (?) for investment pro-
                                                                               motion

a.	The estimated costs and impact associated with the proposed actions in this and subsequent action plan tables are indicative and
   subject to refinement by IiP based on the agency’s available resource situation and operating structures. The actions within each ac-
   tion plan table are sorted by suggested order of priority, taking into account their potential impact as well as fiscal cost implications.




Pillar 2:
Coherent institutional framework
A coherent institutional framework for investment with a strong regional invest-
ment promotion agency at its center is crucial for successful FDI attraction. The
following actions are proposed to strengthen the institutional framework.

                                                          Stakeholders                                          Expected      Cost
Actions needed                                   Timeline involved                Output                        impact        implications

2.1 Amend IiP’s board structure                     2023      IiP Board           Revised IiP’s board           High          None
    to include a board of directors                                               structure with private
    or advisory board and increase                                                sector participation in
    private sector participation on its                                           place
    board.

2.2 Strengthen IiP’s role as coordina-              2025      Regional            A coordination plat-          Medium        Low
    tor between actors in the technol-                        government          form between actors
    ogy and digital economy sectors.                          IiP Board           in the technology
                                                                                  and digital economy
                                                              Sector              sectors run by IiP or
                                                              associations        established with IiP’s
                                                              Academia            support in place

2.3 Increase coordination between                   2027      PAIH                A report summarizing          High          None
    IiP and PAIH; issue joint report on                                           investors’ experience
    investor issues and communicate                                               in Pomerania and
    new FDI strategy to stimulate                                                 identifying key invest-
    increase of investment enquiries                                              ment climate issues
    provided to IiP by PAIH.                                                      submitted to PAIH
48                                Inputs to the FDI strategy for Invest in Pomerania                     SYNTHESIS NOTE




                                                     Stakeholders                                   Expected   Cost
Actions needed                              Timeline involved             Output                    impact     implications

2.4 Increase the number of KPIs               2022     IiP Board          FDI Promotion         High           Low
    and impact indicators that IiP                                        Strategy 2022 – 2027
    measures to guide staff and better                                    with a well-defined
    quantify the benefits and costs of                                    set of KPIs and M&E
    its works.                                                            mechanisms endorsed
                                                                          by IiP Board; annual
                                                                          progress reports pub-
                                                                          lished by IiP

2.5 When hiring additional staff, focus       2027     IiP Board          For each target sector,   High       Medium
    on sector-specific expertise for pri-                                 IiP has a dedicated
    ority sectors — align staff salaries                                  sector specialist with
    with private sector remuneration.                                     private sector expe-
                                                                          rience; staff salaries
                                                                          match average private
                                                                          sector remuneration




                                  Pillar 3:
                                  Investor services
                                  Providing well-designed services along the investment life cycle represents the core
                                  of investment promotion. The following actions are proposed to ensure the ser-
                                  vices provided by IiP are both relevant and satisfactory to meet investors’ needs.

                                  A. Marketing services
                                                 Stakeholders                                       Expected   Cost
Actions needed                          Timeline involved             Output                        impact     implications

3.1 As part of the aftercare pro-           2024     Sector           A small, focused market-   High          Medium
    gram, promote IiP’s services                     associations     ing campaign targeting a
    supporting linkages and expan-                   FDI projects     selected number of strate-
    sions among strategic investors                                   gic investors
    in target sectors.

3.2 Reach out to HQ/main country            2025     Sector           A focused aftercare out-     High        Medium
    office of established investors                  associations     reach campaign targeting
    within a priority sector, seek-                  FDI projects     a limited number of strate-
    ing a face-to-face meeting to                                     gic investors that indicated
    persuade about the location’s                                     expansion or diversifica-
    benefits for reinvestment                                         tion potential
    (expansion or diversification).

3.3 Develop a stronger narrative            2023     City of          Image building campaign       Medium     Low
    about TriCity region as an                       Gdańsk           promoting TriCity region
    investment destination and use                   City of Gdynia   as destination for selected
    a multichannel marketing cam-                                     target industries; higher
    paign for a global audience.                     City of Sopot    brand recognition of
                                                                      TriCity among potential
                                                                      investors
                      Chapter 6             Key actions for strategy implementation                                      49




                                                 Stakeholders                                        Expected   Cost
Actions needed                          Timeline involved             Output                         impact     implications

3.4 Review the effectiveness of           2023      FDI projects      Social media effectiveness     Medium     Low to
    social media programs and                                         report and continuing                     medium
    potentially outsource their                                       monitoring system in
    implementation.                                                   place

3.5 Create case studies of success-       2022      Sector            A set of testimonials for     Medium      Low
    ful investments in the region                   associations      each target sector high-
    and of start-ups who managed                    FDI projects      lighting Pomerania’s inter-
    to internationalize in selected                                   national competitiveness
    target sectors.                                                   in key site-selection factors
                                                                      relevant for a given sector



B. Information services
                                                 Stakeholders                                        Expected   Cost
Actions needed                        Timeline   involved          Output                            impact     implications

3.6 Display topical information        2023      Sector            Update of IiP website with        High       Low
    for foreign investors directly               associations      dedicated sector & invest-
    on IiP’s website.                            FDI projects      ment relevant datasets

3.7 Use business intelligence          2022      Sector            (Bi)annual sector reviews         High       Medium
    tools to develop for-                        associations      (internal use) and a set of
    ward-looking sector reports.                 Academia          sector reports for each target
                                                                   sector

3.8 Issue a guide to the sector        2025      Sector            A practical guide to the sector   High       Medium
    regulatory roadmap using                     associations      regulatory roadmap using
    investors’ input from bian-                  FDI projects      investors’ input from biannual
    nual investor surveys.                                         investor surveys

3.9 Increase the publicity             2022      Sector            A digital sector knowledge        Medium     Low
    and dissemination of IiP’s                   associations      database included in IiP’s
    reports.                                     Site-selection    website and promoted
                                                 consultants       among sector & investment
                                                                   specialists




C. Assistance services
                                               Stakeholders                                          Expected   Cost
Actions needed                        Timeline involved            Output                            impact     implications

3.10 Strengthen aftercare ser-         2023      Sector            A well-designed aftercare         High       Medium
     vices for existing investors                associations      program focusing on assist-
     to help them grow and                       Regional          ing companies to re-invest
     reinvest.                                   government        and expand in Pomerania

3.11 Continue IiP’s efforts to         2025      Regional &        A database of development        Medium      Medium
     improve the transparency of                 municipal         land for investment purposes,
     land ownership to generate                  governments       capturing information related
     larger plots for manufactur-                Real estate       to critical investor site-selec-
     ing investments.                            developers        tion criteria
50                                     Inputs to the FDI strategy for Invest in Pomerania             SYNTHESIS NOTE




                                                 Stakeholders                                    Expected   Cost
Actions needed                          Timeline involved         Output                         impact     implications

3.12 Strengthen IiP’s role as coor-       2022    Sector          A reskilling initiative for    Medium     Low
     dinator for skills initiatives.              associations    selected target sectors
                                                  Regional        (Digital Technology/Global
                                                  government      Business Services) in place
                                                  Training
                                                  institutions/
                                                  labor office

3.13 Launch a program providing           2025    Regional        A program providing assis-     Medium     Medium to
     assistance to companies                      government      tance to companies to imple-              high
     to implement a decarbon-                     Sector          ment a decarbonization and/
     ization and/or responsible                   association     or responsible production
     production program.                                          program (e.g., grant scheme
                                                                  for certification)

3.14 Launch a small grants                2022    Regional &      Small grants scheme/dis-       Medium     High
     scheme promoting invest-                     municipal       bursement
     ment outside the TriCity                     governments
     region.                                      Sector
                                                  associations
                                                  European
                                                  Commission

3.15 Focus on cluster-building            2025    Sector          A pilot linkages program in    Medium     Medium to
     in strategic sectors, and                    associations    one selected sector (renewa-              high
     launch a pilot linkages                      Regional        ble energy)
     program.                                     government

3.16 Expand the information               2023    Regional        More investment (work)         Medium     Low
     provided on the Live More.                   government      relevant content on the Live
     Pomerania website.                                           More. Pomerania website

3.17 Promote establishment                2027    Regional        An international school estab- Medium     Low
     of International School of                   government      lished in Pomerania
     Pomerania.                                   Academia



                                       D. Advocacy services	
                                                  Stakeholders                                   Expected   Cost
Actions needed                           Timeline involved        Output                         impact     implications

3.18 Design and periodically              2023    FDI projects    Investor survey (project       Medium     Medium
     execute a biannual investor                  IiP Board       performance, investment
     survey.                                                      climate, sector ecosystem,
                                                                  expansion/re-investment
                                                                  potential)

3.19 Regularly collect infor-             2024    FDI projects    A list of investment climate   High       Low
     mation on foreign inves-                     IiP Board       issues/barriers and progress
     tors’ issues and promote                                     report on their removal
     solutions with relevant local
     government officials and
     stakeholders.
                    Chapter 6            Key actions for strategy implementation                             51




                                             Stakeholders                               Expected   Cost
Actions needed                      Timeline involved       Output                      impact     implications

3.20 Report on the investment        2024    FDI projects   A widely disseminated report High      Medium
     climate/ecosystem for prior-            IiP Board      on investment climate/eco-
     ity sectors.                                           system for priority sectors
                                             PAIH           with a list of policy recom-
                                                            mendations