S T O Y F O R U T E G I N P I S T R A T A NIA” T H E F D OM E R ST IN P “INVE (2021 – 2027) N O T E H ESIS SYNT Project co- nanced by the European Union from the European Regional Development Fund S T O Y F O R U T E G I N P I S T R A T A NIA” T H E F D OM E R ST IN P “INVE (2021 – 2027) N O T E N T HESIS S Y Project co- nanced by the European Union from the European Regional Development Fund © 2022 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. 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Cover design: Wojciech Wolocznik, Cambridge, UK Interior design and typesetting: Piotr Ruczynski, London, UK Contents 5 Acknowledgements 7 Abbreviations 9 CHAPTER 1 Introduction 13 CHAPTER 2 Summary of the “Impact evaluation of Invest in Pomerania (2011 – 2020)” report 14 Quantitative impact assessment 16 Qualitative impact assessment 17 Key considerations for Invest in Pomerania’s new FDI strategy for 2022 – 2027 21 CHAPTER 3 The strategic context — factors driving change in the global landscape for FDI 22 Global megatrends impacting FDI 31 CHAPTER 4 Leveraging FDI for Pomerania’s economic development 35 CHAPTER 5 Prioritizing sectors for promotion 36 Rationale for investor targeting 36 Priority sectors identified for FDI promotion 39 The Pomerania region value proposition in priority sectors 40 Targeted investment promotion services 45 CHAPTER 6 Key actions for strategy implementation 46 Pillar 1: Strategic alignment and focus 47 Pillar 2: Coherent institutional framework 48 Pillar 3:Investor services BOXES 33 BOX 4.1 By 2027 Invest in Pomerania will FIGURES 15 FIGURE 2.1 Firms, Employment and Wages in 38 FIGURE 5.2 Core target sectors and key Priority Sectors vs. Other Sectors (Index, 2009 = investment opportunities 100), Pomerania 2009 – 2018 41 FIGURE 5.3 Focus of IiPs investment services by 15 FIGURE 2.2 Number of FDI projects and amount target sector of investment in IT-BPO vs. other priority sectors, 41 FIGURE 5.4 The investment life cycle Pomerania 2003 – 2020 42 FIGURE 5.5 Comprehensive investor services 33 FIGURE 4.1 Projected contributions to regional framework economic development priorities 46 FIGURE 6.1 Core elements for increasing the 37 FIGURE 5.1 FDI sector targeting development impact of IiP TABLES 18 TABLE 2.1 Summary of Recommendations from 27 TABLE 3.2 Global, regional, national, and the impact evaluation, for consideration in IiP’s subnational FDI trends overview new strategy 39 TABLE 5.1 Main sources of target sectors’ 22 TABLE 3.1 Key global megatrends at a glance competitiveness 5 Acknowledgements This report was prepared by a World Bank Group team led by Austin Kilroy, Lukasz Marek Marc and Harald Jedlicka (Task Team Leaders). The core team (in alphabetical order) consisted of Maximilian Eltgen, Robert Hejzak, Marton Kerkapoly, Alexandra Mincu, Zenia Ann Rogatschnig and Victor Steenbergen. Marco Di Cataldo (University of Venice) and Mara Giua (Roma Tre University) provided inputs under the guidance of Riccardo Crescenzi (London School of Economics). Leonardo Iacovone, Yago Arranda Larrey and Cristina Savescu have peer reviewed the report. The report was undertaken under the guidance of Marcus Heinz, Resident Repre- sentative, Ilias Skamnelos, Practice Manager, and Ivan Nimac, Lead Private Sec- tor Specialist. The team appreciated their comments, advice, and help throughout the course of this work. The team would like to express its gratitude to Wojciech Tyborowski, Marcin Grzegory, Mikołaj Trunin, Tomasz Grabowski, and Monika Stokfisz from Invest in Pomerania for their valuable contributions and support. Numerous private sector firms provided their candid inputs for the sector — level analysis in sector specific focus groups conducted on an anonymous basis, and the team is grateful to each company for taking the time to share their insights. 7 Abbreviations AI Artificial Intelligence ARP Agencja Rozwoju Pomorza Spółka Akcyjna BPO Business Process Outsourcing CEE Central and Eastern Europe CO2 carbon dioxide ECA Europe and Central Asia EU European Union FDI Foreign Direct Investment GDP Gross Domestic Product GVC Global Value Chain HQ headquarters ICT Information and Communications Technology IIA International Investment Agreement IiP Invest in Pomerania IPA Investment Promotion Agency IT Information Technology KPI key performance indicators M&E monitoring and evaluation MNE Multinational Enterprise NEM non-equity mode PAIH Polish Investment and Trade Agency (Polska Agencja Inwestycji i Handlu) RAS Reimbursable Advisory Services R&D Research & Development SSC Shared Services Center US United States USA United States of America WAIPA World Association of Investment Promotion Agencies WTO World Trade Organization R 1 TE AP CH Introduction 10 Inputs to the FDI strategy for Invest in Pomerania SYNTHESIS NOTE In 2011, the Pomerania region of Poland set up ‘Invest in Pomerania’ (IiP) as its regional investment promotion agency. Several local institutions together launched IiP to ensure regional coordination of FDI attraction and investment promotion opportunities. The goal was to create a single entity that would effectively attract and facilitate FDI to the region, and also act as an interface between investors, local authorities and other stakeholders. While starting off small, the agency has developed significantly since its inception. With a total of 22 employees, the agency today has a number of functions, including investment promotion, matchmaking services, innovation promotion, development of local suppliers, functioning as a one-stop-shop, and promoting domestic investment. The development of a new Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Strategy for Invest in Pomerania comes at an important moment to support the region’s new eco- nomic development objectives. Upon reaching its ten-year anniversary, the agency finds itself at an important crossroads, as it seeks to develop its new investment promotion strategy for 2022 – 2027. The Pomerania region has recently launched the “Development strategy of the Pomeranian Voivodeship 2030”, which outlines transformational priorities to advance the development of the region and increase economic growth. At the same time, global megatrends, including the COVID-19 pandemic, climate change, tightening trade policies and geostrategic tensions dra- matically change the global landscape for FDI, highlighting the critical importance of developing and adopting a new FDI strategy for Invest in Pomerania. The following synthesis note provides core inputs and elements for Invest in Pomer- ania to develop a new FDI strategy that takes advantage of global FDI megatrends and is aligned with the Pomerania region’s development objectives. It draws on two new technical reports provided by the World Bank to Invest in Pomerania. The first is “Impact evaluation of Invest in Pomerania (2011 – 2020)”, that provides a quantitative and qualitative review of IiP’s past investment promotion strategy. By looking backwards at the agency’s impact while also drawing out major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats for IiP, this report is designed to evaluate past performance while also informing the agency’s future development path. The second technical report “Inputs to the Investment Strategy of Invest in Pomerania” provides an analysis of relevant global and regional FDI trends to frame the con- text in which the new strategy for Invest in Pomerania will be developed. By as- sessing the risks and opportunities associated with global megatrends in FDI, this report is designed to help pinpoint sectors with high growth potential for invest- ment attraction to the Pomerania region. Next, the report provides an in-depth analysis of the feasibility and desirability of key sectors for FDI attraction in the Pomerania region. By looking at the competitiveness of specific sectors as well as their potential benefits to Pomerania’s economy, this sector scan serves to analyze and identify priority sectors for Invest in Pomerania’s FDI attraction efforts. Final- ly, the report proposes key actions for strategy implementation. Chapter 1 Introduction 11 The following synthesis note provides a brief summary of the two main reports’ findings and is structured in 5 main chapters. Chapter 2 provides a short summary of a quantitative and qualitative review of IiP’s investment promotion strategy from 2011 to 2021 and outlines key consider- ations for the agency’s new FDI strategy for 2022 – 2027. Chapter 3 provides a short summary of key factors driving change in the current global landscape for FDI and assesses risks and opportunities associated with these trends for Invest in Pomerania’s new FDI strategy for 2022 – 2027. Chapter 4 assesses the strategic context in which the new FDI strategy will be devel- oped and links its specific targets and activities to the Pomerania region’s overall economic development objectives. Chapter 5 identifies a short list of priority sectors for FDI attraction based on a detailed FDI Sector Scan assessment, and presents short sector profiles outlining the key strengths and elements constituting the Pomerania region’s value proposi- tion to investors in these sectors. Chapter 6 outlines a high-level action plan for IiP to implement the new invest- ment strategy, focused on three principal areas: enhancing IiP’s strategic align- ment and focus; strengthening IiP’s institutional framework; and upgrading IiP’s investor services delivery. R 2 TE AP CH Summary of the “Impact evaluation of Invest in Pomerania (2011 – 2020)” report 14 Inputs to the FDI strategy for Invest in Pomerania SYNTHESIS NOTE In 2011, the Pomerania region of Poland set up ‘Invest in Pomerania’ (IiP) as its regional investment promotion agency. Several local institutions together launched IiP to ensure regional coordination of FDI attraction and investment promotion opportunities. The goal was to create a single entity that would effectively attract and facilitate FDI to the region, and also act as an interface between investors, local authorities and other stakeholders. While starting off small, the agency has developed significantly since its inception. With a total of 22 employees, the agency today has a number of functions, including investment promotion, matchmaking services, innovation promotion, development of local suppliers, functioning as a one-stop-shop, and promoting domestic investment. The following chapter sum- marizes the impact evaluation of “Invest in Pomerania” (2011 – 2020), which pro- vides a quantitative and qualitative review of IiP’s investment promotion strategy. Quantitative impact assessment Since its inception in 2011, IiP’s priority sectors have grown more significantly than its non-priority sectors. Next to an increase in the number of greenfield FDI projects and total investment in its priority sectors, IiP’s priority sectors have also been growing faster in Pomerania. Between 2011 and 2018, the gross value added in IiP priority sectors had a composite annual growth rate of 7.4 percent, while other sectors grew at only 4.1 percent. Priority sectors also appear to have seen larger increases in the number of firms and persons employed since the start of IiP (see Figure 2.1). Pomerania’s economic performance has been driven by those sectors that IiP tar- geted — in particular the IT-BPO sector. Since the inception of IiP, the IT-BPO makes up a considerable share of new FDI projects in Pomerania. These projects tend to be a bit smaller in size, and so this has less of an effect on total announced invest- ment (see Figure 2.2). However, IT-BPO also outpaces other IiP priority sectors in gross value added, growth in employment, and in the development of average wages. Most new FDI is concentrated in the Tri-City area. A subregional analysis of Pomerania shows that most of the new FDI has gone to the Tri-City area (compris- ing the cities Gdańsk, Gdynia, and Sopot), both by numbers of projects and total FDI, along with increases in gross value added, firm numbers, and employment. Pomerania’s FDI trends roughly follow those of Lesser Poland and Lower Silesia, two regions deemed competitors. In terms of growth in value added in IiP priority sectors, Pomerania is outperforming Lower Silesia and the rest of Poland, but it is outpaced by Lesser Poland. Firm dynamics of IiP priority sectors across the differ- ent regions suggest that Pomerania did well in terms of firm numbers, but lagged behind in persons employed and average wages. Thus, while Pomerania has grown significantly, there still seems to be room for improvement relative to its compet- itor regions in Poland. Chapter 2 Summary 15 FIGURE 2.1 Firms, Employment and Wages in Priority Sectors vs. Other Sectors (Index, 2009 = 100), Pomerania 2009 – 2018 a. Number of Firms b. Persons Employed 220 160 180 140 140 120 100 100 60 80 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 c. Total Wages and Salaries d. Average Wages 260 160 220 140 180 120 140 100 100 60 80 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 IiP priority sectors Other sectors Source: Authors’ calculations using EUROSTAT. Note: Priority sectors are defined in detailed terms, at the NACE2 level. The grey bar denotes IiP’s starting year. FIGURE 2.2 Number of FDI projects and amount of investment in IT-BPO vs. other priority sectors, Pomerania 2003 – 2020 a. Total number of projects b. Total announced investment 60 3,000 50 2,500 40 2,000 XXX 30 1,500 20 1,000 10 500 0 0 2003-2011 (Pre-IiP) 2011-2020 (IiP) 2003-2011 (Pre-IiP) 2011-2020 (IiP) IT-BPO Other Priority Sectors Source: Authors’ calculations using fDi Markets. Note: Priority sectors are defined in detailed terms, at the NACE2 level. 16 Inputs to the FDI strategy for Invest in Pomerania SYNTHESIS NOTE Econometric analysis complements the descriptive statistics by directly showing that IiP has had a significant impact on FDI flows. The empirical strategy relies on a staggered difference-in-differences model, exploiting information on IiP’s target- ing strategies by sector. The model is inspired by Harding and Javorcik (2011)1 and leverages survey data from Crescenzi, Di Cataldo, and Giua (2021)2 combined with greenfield FDI announcements from the Financial Times’ fDi Markets database3. By using Crescenzi, Di Cataldo, and Giua’s 2021 dataset on European regional IPAs, it is possible to know which region-sectors are targeted by other regional IPAs and to exclude them from the sample to reduce bias in the model.4 The model then assesses the effects of IiP’s strategy by estimating the additional FDI inflows in selected sectors during periods of investment promotion, relative to periods in which IiP was not in operation and not targeting those sectors, compared to other regions in Poland and Europe more broadly. The analysis shows that IiP’s target- ing of a sector is associated with: • Increased probability of 16 to 18 percent for a targeted sector to receive FDI • Average increase of 76 additional projects attracted over the time-horizon • Average increase up to 160 percent in the inflow of FDI • Average increase up to 230 percent of FDI-related jobs In other words, sectors targeted by IiP perform significantly better than non-tar- geted sectors in terms of FDI attraction; IiP has been able to increase the attraction of FDI and FDI-related jobs; and the amount of attracted foreign capital appears to be substantial. IiP’s effectiveness at attracting FDI and FDI jobs is also above aver- age compared to other regional investment promotion agencies (IPAs) in Europe. Qualitative impact assessment The qualitative impact combines a literature review, an IPA benchmarking exer- cise, and a stakeholder survey. Existing literature is reviewed to establish good prac- tice elements that constitute an effective investment promotion agency. In the IPA benchmarking exercise, different characteristics of IiP’s structure and performance are qualitatively compared to the characteristics that High-Performing IPAs tend to display (as identified by Steenbergen, forthcoming). Stakeholder consultations with 57 private organizations and public and semipublic institutions in Pomerania helped to establish the causal mechanisms by which IiP has had an impact on investment. 1. Harding, T., & Javorcik, B. S. (2011). Roll out the red carpet and they will come: Investment promotion and FDI inflows. The Economic Journal, 121(557), 1445 – 1476. 2. Crescenzi, R., Di Cataldo, M., & Giua, M. (2021). FDI inflows in Europe: Does investment promotion work?. Journal of International Economics, 132, 103497. 3. https://www.fdimarkets.com/ 4. Excluding these regions from the sample helps to assess the absolute effectiveness of IiP’s specific invest- ment promotion program (rather than consider its relative effectiveness vis-à-vis other IPAs). Chapter 2 Summary 17 Stakeholder perceptions corroborate the findings of the quantitative analysis that IiP has helped to attract foreign investment, in part through its role as a regional coordinator. Among different stakeholders — both public and private sector — IiP is also generally seen as having been successful in attracting FDI, with several firms attesting to the pivotal role the agency has played in their decision-making to lo- cate in the Pomerania region. IiP is also perceived as having helped to improve in- teragency coordination and cooperation between different public and semipublic institutions in the region, functioning as an integrator and central node of a wide network of different public and semipublic institutions. This has contributed to streamlining the flow of information between investors and regional institutions. Invest in Pomerania’s effectiveness derives from its focus on investment promotion and institutional coordination. IiP’s operating structure and organizational frame- work have been mostly set up in line with good practices of high-performing IPAs. In combination with well-respected staff, IiP has excelled in attracting FDI. IiP con- centrated on a number of key services and activities that it performs well, thereby avoiding diluting efforts across too many different tasks. For example, by focusing its promotion efforts on the IT-BPO cluster, IiP bundled its resources and attention to achieve extraordinary results in helping the cluster grow and also enabled it to exper- iment with expanding its functions in a targeted way, such as by proactively address- ing marketing around the lack of skills through the Live More. Pomerania initiative. Key considerations for Invest in Pomerania’s new FDI strategy for 2022 – 2027 IiP can reach the next stage of its evolution by further professionalizing its oper- ations. To do so, the impact evaluation report makes a number of recommenda- tions to consider for the new FDI strategy. These include: some revisions to IiP’s institutional structure; an update of IiP’s strategic alignment and focus; expanded staff profiles and remuneration, with clear KPIs; and some improvements in deliv- ery of investor services. A summary of the recommendations is provided here in Table 2.1. The rest of the report builds on these recommendations in more detail. 18 Inputs to the FDI strategy for Invest in Pomerania SYNTHESIS NOTE TABLE 2.1 Summary of Recommendations from the impact evaluation, for consideration in IiP’s new strategy Pillar Recommendation Institutional • Consider conducting a detailed review of Invest in Pomerania’s structure to potentially include Arrangement a formal board of directors or advisory board and to increase private sector participation in its board. • Strengthen IiP’s role as coordinator between public, semipublic, and private sector actors in the technology and digital economy sectors (e.g., those providing start-up incubation, acceleration, financing, etc.) to improve information flows between actors, increase transparency about availa- bility of different services, and streamline overlapping offerings. • Increase coordination between IiP and the Polish Investment and Trade Agency (PAIH). Strategic Align- • Clarify and update the agency’s priority sectors in the new FDI strategy and provide greater clar- ment and Focus ity and consistency about priority sectors in IiP’s communications. • Consider increasing the share of resources spent on non-IT-BPO priority sectors. • Reconsider the promotion of domestic investment as part of IiP’s mandate and consider shifting the agency’s resource allocation from promoting domestic SMEs to promoting foreign SMEs and from overseeing grants to attracting FDI, to the extent its funding structure based on EU funds permits. Organizational • When hiring additional staff, focus on sector-specific expertise for priority sectors in upcoming Framework and FDI strategy. Resourcing • Align IiP’s staff salaries with private sector remuneration levels. • Increase the number of KPIs and impact indicators that Invest in Pomerania measures to guide staff and better quantify the benefits and costs of its works. Investor Services Marketing Services: Delivery • Develop a stronger narrative about the Tri-City region as investment destination and consider a multichannel marketing campaign for a global audience. • Review the effectiveness of social media programs, and potentially outsource their implementa- tion. • Create case studies of successful investments in the region and of start-ups that managed to internationalize. Information Services: • Increase the publicity and dissemination of IiP’s reports. • Display topical information for foreign investors directly on IiP’s website. • Use business intelligence tools to develop forward-looking sector reports. Assistance Services: • Continue IiP’s efforts to improve the transparency of land ownership to generate larger plots for manufacturing investments. • Expand the information provided on the Live More. Pomerania website. • Strengthen IiP’s role as coordinator for skills initiatives. • Strengthen aftercare services for existing investors to help them grow and reinvest. • Focus on cluster-building in strategic sectors, and launch a pilot linkages program. Advocacy Services: • Regularly collect foreign investors’ issues and promote their solution with government officials. • Consider a collaboration with PAIH to expand the reach of IiP’s advocacy services. • Organize issue- or sector-specific meetings between investors and/or business organizations with local government institutions. Source: Authors’ analysis using IPA benchmarking and interviews. R 3 TE AP CH The strategic context — factors driving change in the global landscape for FDI 22 Inputs to the FDI strategy for Invest in Pomerania SYNTHESIS NOTE Global megatrends impacting FDI In preparing the next generation FDI strategy for the Pomerania region, global trends that can have a strong impact on the region’s FDI ambitions must be taken into account. These global megatrends provide the strategic backdrop against which the strategy has been prepared and against which it will be implemented in the com- ing years. Several transformational megatrends are currently reshaping the global landscape for FDI, including COVID-19; Russia’s war in Ukraine; increasing infla- tion levels across Europe; climate change and an increased focus on sustainability; Industry 4.0 and the new industrial revolution; shifts in global trade patterns; and the growing global trend toward more protectionist investment and trade policies. These trends have already had a lasting impact on global FDI flows and the oper- ation of multinational enterprises (MNEs). They will continue to play a transfor- mational role around the globe, thus presenting specific risks and opportunities for the Pomerania region in developing its FDI strategy. TABLE 3.1 Key global megatrends at a glance COVID-19 has introduced unprecedented shocks to the global economy and FDI, while also accelerating many preexisting global trends. The pandemic caused significant declines in investor confidence, large-scale disruption in global FDI flows in 2020/21 — including a 42 percent reduction in FDI flows from an already declining basis prior to the pandemic — and severe disruptions to supply chains essential for the operation of global value chains (GVC), with varying effects across sectors. The COVID-19 likelihood of subsequent waves of the pandemic and new potential variants presents a challenge for global economic recovery and creates a sustained environment of uncertainty. The pandemic marked an increase in protectionist measures toward investment globally. A significant number of new FDI restrictions have been introduced since the start of the pandemic, largely focusing on FDI screening measures, with a majority occurring in developed countries.a These increasingly protectionist trends could also have effects upon global FDI flows, with certain countries and regions making themselves less open to potential investment. On the bright side, specific opportunities for the Pomerania region may arise from the pandemic. MNEs’ reactions to value chain disruptions may create new investment opportunities in sectors that were previously driven by cost considerations only. To the extent that additional factors like supply chain autonomy play a more prominent role, Pomerania might benefit from new opportunities to upgrade existing manufacturing operations and from investment reshoring along the value chain. Impact on Pomerania FDI strategy Opportunities: Risks: • New opportunities may arise in sectors where • New screening mechanisms introduced by investment decisions were previously driven by Poland could dampen investor interest in the cost optimization only, but that in the future will country in the short term, with trickle-down increasingly depend on supply chain reliability effects on Pomerania as well. considerations. • Extensions of such measures beyond the initially • Opportunities may open for upgrading existing indicated timeframe of two years would also manufacturing operations along the value chain send a negative signal to investors. (reshoring and nearshoring). • Reconfiguration of MNE supply chains in the • New FDI restrictions and screening mechanisms context of the pandemic can lead to reallocation by competitor countries could divert investment of production capacities and disinvestments in flows to Poland/Pomerania. Poland. Chapter 3 The strategic context 23 The war in Ukraine is expected to have major implications on global economic growth and will also impact FDI flows. The timing of the invasion, as the global economy is still attempting to recover from the COVID-19 crisis, corresponds to a challenging period as inflation is on the rise in many countries and disruptions to investment flows, trade, and global production are still in the midst of recovery. It is expected that the war will have acute impacts on commodity markets, particularly energy and food, War in global logistics, supply chains, FDI flows, and specific sectors to varying degrees.b Emerging market Ukraine and developing economies in the Europe and Central Asia region are expected to bear the brunt of the economic effects of the war in Ukraine.c It is now expected that the ECA region’s economy will shrink by more than 4 percent in 2022, while prior to the onset of the war it was forecast to have 3 percent growth. This would represent a shock twice the size of that felt due to the COVID-19 pandemic.d Spill- over effects on Poland from the war in Ukraine are expected to be significant. The displacement of Ukrainians; increasing commodity prices, including for energy; trade disruptions; and shifts in inves- tor confidence are all expected to affect the Polish economy in varying ways. Increasing commodity prices, particularly related to energy, paired with Poland’s historical dependence on Russia for its energy supply and recent suspensions in energy supplies by Russia, are expected to negatively impact the economy. Poland has limited inward and outward FDI stock exposure in Russia and Ukraine;e how- ever, the broader effects of the war in Ukraine on FDI flows for Poland and Pomerania are unclear. Impact on Pomerania FDI strategy Opportunities: Risks: • Labor force and market demand will increase • Poland is dependent on energy supplies from due to the inflow of displaced people. Russia. • Investment projects from the conflict-affected • The war may generally dampen investor confi- countries may be rerouted to Poland. dence and delay investment decisions. Inflation rates in advanced economies are at their highest since 2008, with emerging markets and developing economies reaching their highest rates since 2011.f The COVID-19 pandemic and its related supply chain disruptions and increased logistics costs, increases in food and energy prices, and the exacerbating effects of the war in Ukraine all contribute to rising inflation rates. In Poland, inflation has accelerated since mid-2021, reaching 8.5 percent in February 2022 and surpassing 12 Rising Infla- percent in April 2022,g which exceeds the upper bound of the targeted range.h The World Bank’s tion spring 2022 Economic Update forecasts that economic growth in Poland will decelerate, citing high inflation among the key causes (along with the war in Ukraine). The exact impacts of high inflation on FDI are not entirely clear, but Poland’s lowered growth forecasts and recent economic studies point to the potential for lowered FDI inflows. A 2021 study found the impacts of inflation differ depending on the type of economy (industrialized vs. non-industrialized) and the level of inflation, with higher levels found to have potentially negative impacts on FDI inflows to industrialized economies.i Rising inflation and its underlying causes will remain an important trend to monitor and a key risk to take into account for Pomerania’s FDI strategy and attraction targets. Impact on Pomerania FDI strategy Opportunities: Risks: • Inflation presents no obvious opportunities. • The impact of inflation on FDI inflows is known to be stronger in developed and industrialized economies such as Poland. From offshoring to nearshoring and reshoring Poland — and the Pomerania region by extension — was one of the main beneficiaries of global off-shoring trends. The globalization of production was accompanied by a wave of companies relocat- ing production from their home countries to other countries with lower production costs. This move- ment was made possible by technological advancements, faster and cheaper transportation of goods, Changing and in Europe in particular, by the opening of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) economies. While FDI Patterns offshoring activities have slowed down to a marked degree since the Great Recession of 2007–2009, reshoring — the relocation of production processes back to the home country — has accelerated over the past decade. This trend presents both opportunities and challenges for the Pomerania region. If only a fraction of the planned reshoring potential is realized, the benefits for Pomerania could be signifi- cant due to its relatively small size.j However, offshoring activities that were at the source of many FDI pro- jects in Poland in the past may reach maturation and even contraction due to rising costs and automation. 24 Inputs to the FDI strategy for Invest in Pomerania SYNTHESIS NOTE Changing Cluster development and attracting FDI into regions with well-established clusters FDI Patterns Clusters play an important role in establishing countries or regions as attractive locations for FDI. (cont.) The existence of a readily available network of potential suppliers, customers, and relevant service providers becomes increasingly important in MNEs’ site selection decisions. From a host country perspective, clusters play a crucial role in ensuring that spillovers from FDI are effectively absorbed by the host region. Thus, strong industry clusters can become the bedrock of countries’ and regions’ FDI strategies. These countries need to start thinking of FDI as a means to strengthen their regional economies and industry clusters through infusions of new knowledge, technology and capital, and heightened global engagement. Supporting the evolution of new clusters and the strengthening of existing clusters, like the existing IT cluster, should therefore also be one of the principles underpinning the development of the FDI strategy for the Pomerania region. New forms of FDI and cross-border non-equity modes (NEM) Traditionally, multinational companies engaged in cross-border business either through direct owner- ship of foreign affiliates in host countries or by arm’s-length trade. Over the past decade, with the emer- gence of global value chains, this trend has been gradually changing and multinational companies are now increasingly also choosing alternatives to FDI to gain efficiencies or foreign market access using less traditional forms of investment, such as contract manufacturing, services outsourcing, contract farming, franchising, licensing, and management contracts.k These alternatives to establishing a physical presence in country through, e.g., efficiency-seeking or market-seeking FDI,l are generally referred to as non-equity modes (NEMs), and recognition of their importance is becoming more widespread. NEMs allow MNEs to access overseas markets through contracts, rather than FDI, while still exercising a significant degree of control over operations.m Investments made through non-equity modes generate significant development benefits for host countries. For example, in the automotive sector, contract manufacturing accounted for 30 percent of global exports of automotive components and 25 percent of employment.n Given the growth and importance of this phenomenon for many countries, any discussion on foreign investment, private sector development, and related investment policy and regulatory frameworks must include NEMs as well. A focus on the specific requirements of NEMs may give Pomerania a competitive edge over competing locations. This requires realignment of investor targeting and investor servicing as NEMs-related invest- ment decisions often require a different set of information from traditional FDI projects. Changing trade policies and growing protectionism Recent years have seen a reversal of the long-term trend of bilateral and multinational trade deals reducing tariffs and trade barriers around the world. A simmering trade war between the US and China, for example, has led to a series of retaliatory trade tariffs on a range of goods, and protectionist policies are increasingly common in other countries too. Trade tensions and tariff uncertainty are seen by MNEs as one of the top risks threatening Europe’s FDI attractiveness. Anecdotal evidence col- lected during interviews with foreign investors in Pomerania confirms that some foreign investors are already prioritizing current and expected future EU-USA and China-USA trade tariff differentials in their upcoming FDI site-selection decisions. While the EU economies may benefit from the growing trade tensions between the US and China, new EU FDI screening policies could have the opposite effect and discourage acquisitions in selected sectors. Impact on Pomerania FDI strategy Opportunities: Risks: • Nearshoring/reshoring: Even if only a fraction of • Nearshoring/reshoring: The offshoring activities the projected nearshoring potential is realized, that were the source of many FDI projects in the benefits for Pomerania could be significant Poland in the past may reach maturation and due to its relatively small size. even contraction due to rising costs and automa- • Clusters: Opportunities for Pomerania relate tion. GVC reconfiguration can lead to disinvest- to attracting specialist support companies to ment in Pomerania. increase cluster value addition and enhance the • Clusters: The public sector may not be able to enabling environment of existing clusters (such accurately identify clusters’ business needs and as the IT cluster). government-driven cluster development may • NEMs: A specific focus on attracting NEMs can therefore support nonperforming clusters with give Pomerania a competitive edge over com- little contribution to meeting regional economic peting locations. This requires realigning inves- development objectives. tor targeting and investor services provision as • NEMs: Existing NEMs in the Pomerania region part of the new FDI strategy. might face similar competitiveness issues as Chapter 3 The strategic context 25 Changing • Trade policies: Protectionist trade policies offshoring activities in traditional manufacturing FDI Patterns between the US and China can favor European sectors (see above), or they could be affected (cont.) investment locations, which allow tapping by new disruptive technologies, such as robotic into one of the lowest average tariffs (under 3 process automation. percent) in the world, governed by World Trade • Trade policies: Protectionist trade policies make Organization (WTO) rules. it less attractive for MNEs to offshore affiliates and may discourage the takeover of Polish com- panies by foreign acquirers. The COVID-19 pandemic has triggered an increased awareness of the importance of sustainabil- ity and climate change. The leaders of major economies pledged to act on climate change, with the Paris Climate Agreement outlining a framework to reduce global emissions based on key climate actions, major economies pledging to take aggressive action in reducing carbon emissions, and the EU announcing its Green Deal committing the bloc to climate neutrality by 2050 — calling it a lifeline out Sustainability of the COVID-19 pandemic. Governments have been adopting additional measures related to sustain- and Climate ability, with investment agreements and investor obligations being key areas of focus.o Investors have Change also cited taking additional steps toward sustainability, though largely driven by pressure from local governments and their parent companies.p FDI has a role to play in limiting climate change by backing projects that reduce CO2 emissions, as well as green projects that promote sustainable development. Climate change commitments present new opportunities for businesses and investors, while also causing significant changes in existing sectors, like automotive. Sustainability and pressure toward decarbonization will create opportunities and challenges for FDI that affect site-selection criteria as investors adapt to meet increasing sustainability obligations. In 2020, for the first time since fDi Mar- kets began recording, renewable energy replaced coal, oil, and gas as the top sector for FDI globally.q Investment in clean energy infrastructure will need to be scaled up significantly in the coming years to the support the broader development economic and climate agenda. Given strains on public finance, engaging the private sector and foreign investors will be critical. Impact on Pomerania FDI strategy Opportunities: Risks: • Massive private investment is required to meet • Significant adjustments will be required in “tradi- climate change commitments, presenting huge tional” industry sectors, with potential challenges untapped potential for FDI. for existing investment projects in the Pomera- • The Pomerania region possesses competitive nia region. potential, specifically in the off-shore wind gen- eration sector. • Access to EU green funds may flow to Pomerania. Industry 4.0 continues to reshape production processes and how businesses interact with their customers and suppliers. As a result, the distinction between industry and services is less relevant as digital technologies are connected with industrial products and services into hybrid products that are neither goods nor services exclusively. In the Industry 4.0 investment environment, the key to attract- ing inbound projects is to develop agile economies that embrace innovation. Foreign investors who are Industry 4.0 creating new technologies require investor-friendly regulations that foster rather than stifle innovation. Economies can adapt to the digital economy under 4.0 by providing investors with tax credits and other incentives that help technology start-ups. To become attractive locations for FDI in 4.0, countries need to develop regulatory frameworks that encourage innovation. Pomerania has the opportunity to leverage regional EU innovation funds as investment incentives to support projects that bring about technological or organizational innovation. Impact on Pomerania FDI strategy Opportunities: Risks: • Industry 4.0 has the potential to transform • FDI based on Industry 4.0 technologies may by- “traditional” sectors into generators of high pass traditional production centers in the CEE re- value-added and sophisticated jobs, thus better gion, as such FDI is driven by different site-selection aligning them with Pomerania’s regional eco- factors, i.e., it relies less on typical competitiveness nomic development objectives. factors such as low labor and production costs. 26 Inputs to the FDI strategy for Invest in Pomerania SYNTHESIS NOTE Industry 4.0 • Industry 4.0 can attract new businesses in new (cont.) upstream value chains to Pomerania, including in high-tech engineering, electronic, and IT services sectors. • Pomerania has the ability to leverage regional EU innovation funds as investment incentives to support projects that bring about technological or organizational innovation. Source: World Bank. a. Some countries, however, have liberalized FDI restrictions; examples include China, which allows 100 percent foreign ownership in fund management, and the UAE, which allows 100 percent foreign ownership of domestic companies. b. M. Ruta, ed. (2022), The Impact of the War in Ukraine on Global Trade and Investment (Washington, DC: World Bank). c. World Bank (2022), ECA Economic Update Spring 2022. d. World Bank (2022), ECA Economic Update Spring 2022. e. World Bank (2022), ECA Economic Brief. f. https://voxeu.org/article/anchoring-inflation-expectations-emerging-and-developing-economies. g. https://stat.gov.pl/en/. h. World Bank (2022), ECA Economic Update Spring 2022. i. Komla Agudze and Oyakhilome Ibhagui (2021), Inflation and FDI in Industrialized and Developing Economies,” International Review of Applied Economics 35(5): 749 – 64. j. For instance, a recent announcement from Intel that it would start producing chips for automakers in Europe within six to nine months to help alleviate a shortage that has disrupted vehicle production around the world translates into FDI of up to US$80 billion; www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/intel-says-it-will-reserve-ireland-chip-factory-capacity-automakers-2021-09-07/. k. NEMs are common in hotels and tourism, IT, and the electric appliances sector, where the foreign investors’ “investment” consists of making available its brand name, intellectual property, know-how, technology, skills, and/or business processes. l. Market-seeking FDI is motivated by an investor’s interest in serving domestic or regional markets. Efficiency-seeking FDI refers to FDI that comes into a country seeking to benefit from factors that enable it to compete in international markets. m. Non-equity and equity modes of investment are not mutually exclusive, and often multinational companies that enter a host country using non-equity modes over time decide to invest more directly through full or partial ownership, creating foreign subsidiaries or joint ventures. n. UNCTAD (2011), World Investment Report. o. International investment agreements (IIA) and trade agreements increasingly include clauses related to sustainable development/ green investment and environmental obligations. p. The World Bank’s MNE Pulse Survey shows that almost half of MNE affiliates reported taking steps to increase sustainability and decarbonize their products and services, with a majority citing pressure from local governments as a key reason why. q. According to estimated capital investment, accounting for US$87.2 billion; see the fDi Report (2021), “Global Greenfield Investment Trends,” the Financial Times Group, available at https://report.fdiintelligence.com. The implications of global megatrends for FDI sector targeting in the context of this strategy Global megatrends, including COVID-19, the war in Ukraine, rising inflation, and climate change, all have the potential to impact FDI flows on a global scale. While these developments will continue to dampen the global economy and generate a great deal of uncertainty for investors for a protracted period of time, their im- pact will differ across sectors. Global value chains with significant production op- erations in China could be particularly negatively impacted by China’s zero Covid policy and related lockdowns, should they resume. This would include the auto- motive sector, electronics, and home appliances but could also entail ripple effects on other sectors. 5 The war in Ukraine is also expected to have negative impacts 5. https://time.com/6168543/china-zero-covid-shanghai-lockdown-economy-impact/. Chapter 3 The strategic context 27 on the production of inputs for the automotive sector.6 These developments could dampen IiP’s efforts to successfully attract FDI in these target sectors. On the other hand, supply chain disruptions from the onset of the COVID-19 crisis also caused a global shortage in semiconductors that led the EU and the US to prioritize semi- conductor production “at home” to avoid future disruptions, which may actual- ly benefit Pomerania in its efforts to attract FDI in the sector. Rising global energy prices and Poland’s reliance on Russia for imported oil and gas present key chal- lenges in the short term but may motivate additional investment in renewable en- ergy — another key sector targeted by this strategy. Detailed projections of future sectoral FDI trends currently remain challenging, as several of the mentioned crises are still unfolding. It is nevertheless important for IiP to account for these megatrends when devising its new FDI sector target- ing strategy to systematically leverage opportunities and hedge its risks in terms of sectors targeted. Therefore, the new FDI strategy for IiP proposes the promo- tion of a portfolio of priority sectors based on their potential value addition for the Pomerania region, but also taking into account risk considerations and potential opportunities in light of global megatrends. This approach represents good prac- tice generally, but in this particular case it specifically serves to mitigate potential effects of global megatrends by having a broader portfolio of tiered target sectors that allow for alternative options for successful FDI attraction. Global and regional FDI trends Global and regional FDI trends depict the FDI “demand side” dynamics against which Pomerania’s FDI strategy is developed. In developing its FDI ambitions, the region needs to take into account relevant sectoral trends on the global and regional levels to calibrate its FDI attraction targets and align its priorities with MNE’s sec- toral investment priorities. Table 2.2 provides a brief overview of key FDI trends at the global, regional, national, and subnational level based on both FDI inflow data and greenfield FDI project announcement data. TABLE 3.2 Global, regional, national, and subnational FDI trends overview Global FDI flows have been on a continuous decline since their 2015 peak. After a record of US$2.04 trillion of FDI in 2015, sizeable declines were registered in 2017 and 2018, and, after a modest increase in 2019, a further dramatic fall in 2020 caused by the COVID-19 crisis. In 2020, global FDI flows dropped by 35 percent to US$1 trillion, from US$1.5 trillion in 2019. This is almost 20 percent below the 2009 trough after the global financial crisis. The lockdowns around the world in response to the COVID-19 pandemic Global slowed existing investment projects, and the prospects of a recession led multinational enterprises to Trends reassess new projects. The fall in FDI was significantly sharper than the fall in gross domestic product (GDP) and trade. 6. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2022/04/19/world-economic-outlook-april-2022. 28 Inputs to the FDI strategy for Invest in Pomerania SYNTHESIS NOTE The EU countries are recipients of approximately one-third of overall global FDI inflows. During the last decade (January 2011 to May 2021), Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries accounted for about 6 percent of recorded FDI projects, while Poland received one-third of the CEE FDI inflow. Automotive components, real estate, plastics, metals, and transportation and warehousing represent the top sectors receiving FDI in emerging Europe. Poland itself attracts a relatively large share (>20%) Regional of real estate, consumer electronics, plastics, transportation and warehousing, consumer products, Trends software and IT services, and business services. FDI inflows in Poland largely follow general trends of FDI inflows into the EU. The total number of projects and the value of FDI both experienced a sharp increase and peak during the pre–global finan- cial crisis years. In the years around the financial crisis (2007 – 2009), FDI in both Europe and Poland experienced a major slowdown. The impact of the global COVID-19 crisis was felt less in Poland than in the rest of the EU — Poland experienced a 20 percent contraction in FDI inflows only, compared to the Trends in over 70 percent drop in FDI inflows to the EU. Poland Poland — like other new Central European EU member states — has greatly benefited from its access to the EU internal market. In combination with the free movement of capital, the internal market has reduced the risk and cost of investing across borders and has thus facilitated intra-Euro- pean FDI. The internal market has enabled European firms to split up their value chains and locate production in the most cost-efficient location. Production relocation from Western to Central/Eastern Europe due to the production cost differential is still an important driver of intra-European FDI flows. Poland, consequently, receives a larger share of intra-European than extra-European FDI.a More than two-thirds of FDI in Poland come from EU-based firms, Germany being the largest ultimate investing country, responsible for 20.3 percent of total FDI (US$43.9 billion), followed by France, whose share amounted to 9.6 percent (US$20.7 billion).b The Pomerania region shows a strong FDI performance track record. The fDi Markets databasec records 202 FDI projects for the period of January 2011 to May 2021, creating an estimated 41,422 jobs. Comparing this data with other Polish regions, it appears that the Pomerania region has been rela- tively more successful in attracting FDI. For the last decade, the Pomerania region’s top five sectors in terms of number of projects were Trends in real estate, software & IT services, transportation and warehousing, business services, and metals. Pomerania In comparison with Poland and other Emerging Europe countries,d Pomerania has a larger share of FDI projects in software and IT services and business services, demonstrating strong competitiveness for FDI attraction in these sectors. In both Poland and the Pomerania region, about one-quarter of FDI projects come from expansions, which is a higher share than in Emerging Europe, suggesting inves- tors’ satisfaction with the investment climate in the country and region. Data on distribution of FDI projects by business activities suggest that the Pomerania region has a higher share of service and R&D-oriented projects and less FDI in manufacturing and construction activities than Poland, demon- strating its clear competitive advantage for attracting more knowledge-intensive FDI.e Source: World Bank. a. ESPON (2018), “The World in Europe: Global FDI Flows toward Europe,” available at https://www.espon.eu/fdi. b. National Bank of Poland (Narodowy Bank Polski; 2019), 2019 FDI in Poland Statistics, available at https://www.nbp.pl/homen.aspx?f=/ en/publikacje/ziben/ziben.html. c. The Financial Times’ fDi Markets database is the most comprehensive online database of cross-border greenfield investments available (www.fdimarkets.com). fDi Markets collects unique information on greenfield FDI project announcements for all countries in the world, providing detailed statistics on time, sector, location of investment, as well as region of origin of the investing company and estimates on the investment value and jobs directly created since 2003. FDI announcement data does not, by its nature, capture all greenfield FDI projects, and thus cannot be expected to correspond directly to FDI inflow amounts or equal the total number of new projects/firms established in a country during the time period covered. fDi data is, however, useful for understanding FDI trends, particularly by sector, gauging investor sentiments, and comparing regions and economies. d. Emerging Europe is an FDI Markets country grouping containing Albania, Belarus, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Kosovo, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Russia, Ser- bia, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Turkey, and Ukraine. e. Source: fDi Markets data; authors’ calculations. R 4 TE AP CH Leveraging FDI for Pomerania’s economic development 32 Inputs to the FDI strategy for Invest in Pomerania SYNTHESIS NOTE The Pomerania region has managed a successful development trajectory. Between 2010 and 2019, the region decreased its unemployment rate from 8.5 percent to 2.8 percent, increased its economically active population from 870,000 to 1,058,000, and raised its level of GDP per capita from €9,500 to €12,600.7 Foreign direct investment (FDI) appears to have contributed positively to Pomerania’s growth. A total of 201 FDI projects were implemented between 2011 and 2021, contributing to an estimated 41,000 jobs in the region. Pomerania has been more successful in attracting FDI than other Polish regions. With US$6.9 billion of FDI projects in Pomerania announced in the period from 2011 to 2021, the region at- tracted close to 7 percent of the US$127.8 billion for all of Poland.8 Despite this impressive FDI track record, the realization is growing that the FDI strategy must be revisited to meet the region’s new development objectives and adapt to ongoing global economic megatrends and the changing nature of the re- gion’s sources of competitiveness. The new FDI strategy will provide a roadmap for maximizing the benefits and contributions of FDI toward achieving Pomerania’s re- gional development objectives as outlined in Pomerania Voivodeship Development Strategy 2030.9 The ambition for the FDI Strategy is framed using six interlinked pillars: produc- tivity, high-quality jobs, value chains, regional development, low carbon intensity, and social inclusion. Under each of these pillars, Invest in Pomerania, as the des- ignated lead agency in charge of implementing the FDI strategy, will implement a set of targeted activities as summarized in the Figure 4.1. In implementing the FDI Strategy, Invest in Pomerania will capitalize on opportuni- ties to provide MNEs with solutions to the challenges they face in the fast-changing global environment. Invest in Pomerania will partner with existing clients to safe- guard and enhance their business experience in the Pomerania region, while also attracting the next generation of leading-edge MNEs in the core sectors of focus. Invest in Pomerania will place sustainable growth at the center of its strategy, in line with regional government policy, international consensus, the vision of its clients, and the demands of citizens. The agency will seek growth that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs, while fostering an inclusive, sustainable, and resilient economy and society. 7. Based on Eurostat data for 2011 to 2019, except GDP per capita data available only until 2018. Unemployment data for 2020 suggest a higher unemployment rate of 5.9%, likely due to COVID-19 economic slowdown, but still well below EU average of 7.0%. Note: the report largely utilizes Eurostat data with mul- tiple justifications: (1) to align with the other deliverables produced under the RAS agreement (i.e., the com- ponent one report providing an Impact Evaluation of “Invest in Pomerania” (2011 – 2020); (2) to allow for internationally comparable figures and maintain uniform definitions (e.g., unemployment data published by Statistics Poland comprise persons working on private farms as part of economically active population and therefore differ from Eurostat statistics). 8. Analysis of FDI Markets data, recorded data for January 2011 to May 2021. 9. Strategia Rozwoju Województwa Pomorskiego 2030, available at https://strategia2030.pomorskie.eu/ wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Zalacznik-do-uchwaly_SWP_376_XXXI_21_SRWP2030_120421.pdf Chapter 4 Leveraging FDI for Pomerania’s economic development 33 FIGURE 4.1 Projected contributions to regional economic development priorities Shift em- phasis to tech- nology- and knowl- edge- intensive FDI Promote Promote linkages betwen FDI FDI that cre- and local firms ates job opportu- nities for women, Build partnerships with aca- migrants, and demia & support tal- older work- ent develop- ers l Pro ment cia n tiv du Pro- So usio ity c- Pro- l mote nc mote FDI that creates i green/low-car- bon FDI and FDI high earnings in services and high-securi- High Low carbon ty jobs intensity Support use or jobs -quality production of Support talent clean technolo- development gies and FDI in and internal & in- the renewable ternational attrac- energy tion of highly sector Re skilled la- e gi lu bor on V a ain s c h Pro- Pro- mote FDI mote ex- opportunities out- port- oriented and side the TriCity area efficiency-driven FDI Promote linkag- Support cluster- based es between FDI public-private dialogue and local focusing on the re- firms gion's intl. com- petitiveness Source: World Bank. Invest in Pomerania will elaborate specific development targets and activities aligned with the six strategic priorities outlined above to operationalize the strategy. An example is provided in Box 4.1. BOX 4.1 By 2027 Invest in Pomerania will: 1. Win investments in technology- and 5. Target a % increase in FDI and academia knowledge-intensive sectors to support creation linkages. of high-quality jobs. 6. Win investments outside the TriCity area to 2. Support expansion of at least % of existing FDI promote regional development. projects based in Pomerania. 7. Support/win at least FDI projects with clear 3. Launch a new reskilling initiative that will lead to decarbonization and/or responsible production upskilling of jobs in the target sectors. programs. 4. Target a % increase in linkages between FDI 8. Achieve % of economic participation of women and local firms. and % of workers aged 55 – 64 within FDI projects based in Pomerania. R 5 TE AP CH Prioritizing sectors for promotion 36 Inputs to the FDI strategy for Invest in Pomerania SYNTHESIS NOTE Rationale for investor targeting Investor targeting — that is, proactively reaching out to investors identified as being desirable and likely to invest and presenting them with tailored business cases to help them select a given location — is the main proactive element of any location’s wider investment promotion strategy. Companies seeking to expand internationally are likely to compare several possible sites against a set of predetermined criteria to arrive at the best investment location for them. In general, criteria used by investors to compare locations for investment in any sector may be both quantitative and qual- itative, typically covering aspects of doing business like access to markets, operat- ing costs, various forms of risk, and quality of life. In the long term, Pomerania can improve the region’s competitiveness by improving its investment climate, infrastruc- ture, workforce, and policy support for attractive sectors. In the short term, Invest in Pomerania can improve its chances by making sure that the Pomerania region makes it onto potential investors’ lists of possible investment locations and poten- tial investors have access to the most complete and positively framed information possible. Targeting seeks to accomplish these two tasks by seeking out and directly engaging investors identified as having high potential interest in a particular location. Investor targeting, if planned and delivered properly, can provide Pomerania with some influence over the types of investment attracted and, whether successful or not, provides valuable insights into what the Pomerania region can do to improve its attractiveness to investors. Without proactive outreach, Pomerania’s invest- ment promotion depends on investors to “make the first move.” However, many regions suffer from poor images or weak investment track records and may not be considered by the most attractive investors. Global evidence shows that proactive investor outreach is one of the most effective ways for regions to attract sufficient interest from potential investors who would otherwise not consider their locations. Strategic targeting is generally regarded as the most effective method for FDI pro- motion, regardless of the country’s economic background. Empirical evidence demonstrates that targeting has been successful, both in small regions and large countries and in emerging and mature economies, as well as with investment pro- motion agencies (IPAs) regardless of budget size. Priority sectors identified for FDI promotion Proactive investment promotion should be geared toward attracting and winning invest- ment in sectors where Pomerania has a competitive advantage and that at the same time contribute positively to meeting the region’s development goals. Proactive investor target- ing requires identifying competitive (sub)sectors that might be best placed to attract new investments. Competitive benchmarking at the sector level is designed to reveal the degree of international competitiveness across different sectors. It is done to isolate and prioritize Chapter 5 Prioritizing sectors for promotion 37 the sectors with the strongest business case to attract investment. Virtually all countries worldwide find themselves competing for FDI in a few key sectors of the economy and less so in others. Often there is little understanding of the important role that a marketing ef- fort focused in a few high-priority sectors can play in an investment promotion strategy. Today, countries that successfully attract FDI generally have narrowed down their “long list” of potential sectors into a more manageable number — seldom more than four to six — high-priority sectors. Best-in-class IPAs adopt a proactive invest- ment promotion strategy targeting this small number of key sectors; examples are Singapore (ICT and biotechnology), Costa Rica (medical devices and ICT), and Ireland (ICT, life sciences, and globally traded services). Competitive benchmarking of sectors conducted in the context of developing this strategy revealed a set of sectors that fulfill the competitiveness criteria outlined above. In its proactive investment promotion activities, Invest in Pomerania should focus on the following two tiers of sectors (Figure 5.1). FIGURE 5.1 FDI sector targeting 5.0 4.5 Biotechnology SSCs & BPOs 4.0 Auto Parts Pharmaceutical & Equipment Semiconductors Software & IT Services 3.5 Renewable Desirability energy value of FDI for Pomerania 3.0 Electronic & Electrical Equipment Industrial Ship building 2.5 Equipment 2.0 1.5 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 Feasibility attractiveness of Pomerania to FDI Source: World Bank. • Tier I “ready-to-go-sectors”: Auto Parts & Equipment, SSCs & BPOs and Soft- ware and IT Services. Tier I encompasses sectors where FDI can be promoted in 38 Inputs to the FDI strategy for Invest in Pomerania SYNTHESIS NOTE the short- to mid-term. These are sectors of Pomerania’s comparative advantage as identified by the analysis conducted for this strategy. They are also sectors expected to be largely resilient or to provide potential opportunities in the face of COVID-19 (e.g., automotive nearshoring) and to not be greatly affected by the war in neighbor- ing Ukraine. These sectors will attract a mix of FDI — some geared toward domes- tic markets, some using Pomerania as a production/service base for export. They should be proactively targeted by Invest in Pomerania through its proactive inves- tor outreach efforts, while the voivodeship government will continue improving the quality of the investment climate, particularly in infrastructure, quality of logis- tics, availability of ICT, and improvement of local suppliers’ quantity and quality. • Tier II “aspirational sectors”: Semiconductors, Renewable Energy. Tier II en- compasses aspirational sectors where FDI may show interest in the mid- to long- term or where some niche investment opportunities can be pursued. These sectors show a strong global demand for new investment (semiconductors) or provide value chain development opportunities for primary resource/market seeking FDI (renewable energy). Provided that Pomerania meets investors’ site-selection crite- ria, these sectors could show a good potential to attract investment to the region. Placing these Tier I and II sectors into a wider economic context and in line with emerging global industry trends, they can be grouped into five main buckets with individual approaches and objectives for promotion (Figure 5.2). FIGURE 5.2 Core target sectors and key investment opportunities Global Business Digital High-tech Mobility Renewable Services Technology Manufacturing (Auto Parts Energy (SSCs & BPOs) (Software & & Design & Equipment) (Offshore IT Services) (Semiconductors) Wind Energy) In Global Business Ser- In Mobility, invest- vices, the continuing In Digital Technology, In High-tech Manu- ment opportuni- In Renewable Ener- expansion of IT-ena- attraction and expan- facturing & Design, in- ties are to be found gy, promoting linkag- bled services repre- sion services and ad- vestment opportuni- in electric vehicle / es among existing in- sents new investment vocacy services tar- ties may arise because IT-related automotive vestors and domes- opportunities for both geted at other indus- of supply chain recon- sector suppliers and tic firms, creating co- new and existing in- tries focused on ex- figurations resulting component special- operation networks to vestors. Building link- panding their opera- from increased glob- ists; marketing ser- bundle resources, and ages across sectors, tions into IT services, al demand in this sec- vices at the attraction promoting the mar- promoting cross-sec- and digital technol- tor. Marketing ser- and expansion phase, ket to new operators toral investment, pro- ogy should be at the vices during the at- assistance servic- are the key services IiP moting reinvestment core of IiP’s promo- traction phase, assis- es during the estab- should consider. and horizontal expan- tional effort. tance services dur- lishment phase (e.g., sion of existing FDI ing the establishment permitting and land as well as vertical ex- phase, and advoca- leasing), and advo- pansion (SSC/BPO cy services based on cacy services will be spin-offs from manu- aftercare programs critical for promoting facturing FDI) should will bring the biggest FDI in this sector. be IiP’s key promo- value added to foreign tional focus. investors in this sector. Source: World Bank. Chapter 5 Prioritizing sectors for promotion 39 The Pomerania region value proposition in priority sectors Articulating compelling value propositions for investors in the sectors targeted by this strategy is essential to implement targeted investment promotion efforts. Private sector consultations and the FDI Sector Scan assessments were used to identify the key competitiveness factors that make up Pomerania’s value proposi- tion to investors in the targeted sectors. Table 5.1 summarizes the main competi- tiveness drivers for the Pomerania region in each of the identified priority sectors. They are strong human resources, cost competitiveness, a proven track record in specific sectors, and strong future growth potential. TABLE 5.1 Main sources of target sectors’ competitiveness Global Business Services (SSCs & BPOs) Human • Excellent skill base. Resources • Constant supply of high skilled graduates from local universities. Cost Competi- • Relatively low labor costs compared to regional competitors (CEE countries). tiveness • Established sectoral hub helps provide access to basic infrastructure required to operate at effec- tive cost levels in Pomerania. Proven Track • Poland is an established services hub in SSC and BPO. Record • Specifically, the TriCity area is considered a Tier 2 location. Future Growth • Constantly increasing global FDI into the sector. Potential • Pomerania offers a balance between lower costs and higher skill sets within Poland and the wider CEE region. Digital Technology (Software & IT services) Human • High skill levels and constant supply of IT graduates into an increasingly mature IT sector with high Resources complexity products (AI Chips). • Significant number of universities and private coding schools. Cost Competi- • With high skill levels, labor costs are relatively low. tiveness • Available digital infrastructure and access to skills further reduce establishment costs for investors. Proven Track • Pomerania is a well-established IT hub. Record • Many multinational software and hardware companies are already established. Future Growth • Digital technology is a core driver of FDI globally. Potential • Scalability and integration of services with products increases demand for digital service solutions. High-tech Manufacturing & Design (Semiconductors) Human • Large pool of software developers and employees with related skills. Resources • Related skill sets in engineering and R&D in semiconductors are already present. Cost Competi- • Relatively low labor costs, although labor costs are not one of the main driving factors of location tiveness decisions. • Proximity to mature markets and access to potentially cheap renewable energy lower investment levels. 40 Inputs to the FDI strategy for Invest in Pomerania SYNTHESIS NOTE Proven Track • Well-established semiconductor research facilities of global semiconductor MNEs. Record Future Growth • COVID-induced investments into new semiconductor capacities increase FDI. Potential • Reinvestments into locations in Pomerania strengthen the value proposition for colocation and hub characteristics for a broader number of semiconductor companies. Mobility (Auto Parts & Equipment) Human • IT and advanced software skills support latest trends in automotive and mobility product solution Resources development. Cost Competi- • With high levels of automatization, labor costs will be less significant, while access to skills will tiveness increase further as a key factor. Pomerania offers solid access to a high-skill labor force. • Combination of traditional manufacturing competencies and IT/software development offer a highly attractive base for investment lowering costs of complexity of supply. Proven Track • Battery production already established with continued new and re-investments. Record • Automotive supplier base well established. Future Growth • Demand for electrical vehicles and specifically sufficient batteries will remain high. Potential • Integration of software-driven innovations with classic engineering will dominate new product development, for which Pomerania offers sufficient levels of sector complexity. Renewable Energy (Offshore Wind Energy) Human • Excellent knowledge basis for offshore technology and construction through shipbuilding and Resources offshore manufacturing tradition. • High skill levels already in place. Cost Competi- • Relatively lower wage levels in comparison to regional competition. tiveness • Integration between different manufacturers and equipment suppliers allows for fast adjustment to specialized products, with relatively lower costs. Proven Track • Long history in shipbuilding and offshore technology development. Record • Hub for region in maritime technology. Future Growth • High demand for highly specialized equipment and vehicles for the construction and operation of Potential offshore wind farms. • Constant demand for more renewable energy maintains a more supply-driven market. Source: World Bank. Targeted investment promotion services The specific characteristics and economic development objectives for the individual target sectors identified by this strategy require a customized approach to invest- ment promotion. To fully unlock the potential of these sectors for investment attrac- tion, Invest in Pomerania will need to customize its services offering to align with the specific needs of potential as well as existing investors. Figure 5.3 suggests a specific matrix and priorities for IiP’s services offerings across the five main target sectors identified by this strategy. It is based on factors such as the sector’s stage of development in Pomerania, the presence of existing FDI firms in Pomerania, sec- toral development priorities, and others. Chapter 5 Prioritizing sectors for promotion 41 FIGURE 5.3 Focus of IiPs investment services by target sector Attraction Linkages & spillovers Entry & establishment Retention & expansion Global Business Services Digital Technology High-tech Manufacturing & Design Mobility Renewable Energy Source: World Bank. Fostering links and spillovers By looking for win-win benefits To successfully attract FDI and foster its growth in the targeted sectors, Invest in Pomerania needs to provide coherent services offerings across the four key stages matching the investment life cycle. The services provided by IiP across the stages of attraction, entry and establishment, retention and expansion, and linkages and spillovers need to be both relevant and satisfactory to meet investors’ needs. FIGURE 5.4 The investment life cycle Plan (define business needs) Transition ers Explore ov pill At s tr d a an ct Fostering Attracting io s links and investors ge n spillovers ka By enhancing the By looking for investment climate, Lin win-win benefits for promoting the loca- both the investor and tion and supporting the domestic economy investor's planning and exploration Expand Validate diversify IPAs selected link location Securing their reten- tion and expansion Assisting their entry and establishment By ensuring that inves- tors operate without By providing a trans- sudden legal and reg- parent and predict- Re t en ulatory changes and able legal environ- te by assisting inves- ment and deliver- hm nt tors during op- ing information io is erations and and assistance bl n expan- services d ta an e xp sions es n d an s io tr ya Operate n En Establish Host country location cycle Investor's project cycle Source: World Bank (2020), The Comprehensive Investor Services Framework. 42 Inputs to the FDI strategy for Invest in Pomerania SYNTHESIS NOTE The services that IiP should consider delivering across the stages of the life cycle fall within four main categories of services: marketing, information, assistance, and advocacy. It is important for IiP to deliver its services in those categories con- sistently and at the highest level of quality stan- FIGURE 5.5 Comprehensive investor services dards. Services will need to align with the needs framework and expectations of investors, and intensity lev- els will vary depending on the maturity and com- Entry & Retention Linkages Attraction establishment & expansion & spillovers petitiveness of the targeted sectors (Figure 5.5). Specific recommendations for sharpening IiP’s Marketing services offerings to investors are outlined in the action plan for strategy implementation in the sub- Information sequent chapter of this note. Assistance (i) Marketing in the context of investment promo- Advocacy tion is about generating awareness of the val- ue that an economy can offer to international investors in specific sectors. It implies that an Source: World Bank (2020), The Comprehensive Investor Services Frame- work. IPA (a) understands investor needs and loca- tion strengths, (b) develops a compelling value proposition, (c) raises awareness and positively influences the way investors think about the location, and (d) gets investors to take the next steps for investing. (ii) Information plays a key role at a very early stage of the investment decision-mak- ing process. Companies deciding where to invest usually put together long lists of potential investment destinations before visiting them. Relevant, accu- rate, and complete information reduces uncertainty for investors and influenc- es their decisions in favor of locations that provide complete information. In- vestors discard locations for which they do not have such information, even if those locations would have been a valuable choice for their project. To deliv- er quality information services, IPAs must maintain information that is cred- ible, accurate, relevant, and comprehensive. (iii) Assistance services proactively support investors’ exploration, establishment, operation, retention, and expansion. These fundamental IPA services reduce common constraints to investments on the ground. IPAs provide contacts, make introductions and connect investors with government officials and other stake- holders in the economy, arrange site visits, and even join meetings. IPAs solve problems at all stages of the investment cycle and frequently advise both inves- tors and government officials on how to interact for their mutual benefit. Assis- tance services can be especially important to investors from different cultures or whose home economies are far from the investment location. (iv) Advocacy in investment promotion is about (a) understanding the issues in- vestors face, (b) advocating on their behalf, and (c) influencing stakeholders to improve the investment ecosystem so investors can operate more efficiently and smoothly. According to recent analytical work by the World Bank Group Chapter 5 Prioritizing sectors for promotion 43 and the World Association of Investment Promotion Agencies (WAIPA), in- vestors consider advocacy to be the most important service IPAs can provide. The weaker a location’s investment climate is, the more important the IPA ad- vocacy function becomes. R 6 TE AP CH Key actions for strategy implementation 46 Inputs to the FDI strategy for Invest in Pomerania SYNTHESIS NOTE The following section provides a high-level action plan for Invest in Pomerania to implement the strategy. The proposed actions are grouped along three thematic pillars that constitute best practice in investment promotion globally (Figure 6.1). IiP will need to develop detailed implementation action plans for each of the action items described in this high-level action plan. FIGURE 6.1 Core elements for increasing the 1. Strategic alignment and focus; development impact of IiP 2. Coherent institutional framework; and 3. Strong investor service delivery. Development Impact The proposed actions are geared toward enhanc- ing the effectiveness of IiP, as the lead agency for investment promotion in the Pomerania region, in Higher Investor Satisfaction and Confidence fulfilling its mandate vis-à-vis investment attrac- tion. Enhancing the agency’s effectiveness along Strategic Coherent the three proposed dimensions will result in higher Strong align- institu- investor investor satisfaction and confidence and ultimate- ment tional service and frame- delivery ly stronger development impact by attracting new focus work and expanding existing investments in Pomerania. National Development Plan, Investment Policies, FDI strategy The foundational base for these key strategy ac- tions is the Pomerania Regional Development Source: World Bank (2021), Global Investment Competitiveness Report Strategy,10 that determines the institutional frame- 2019 – 2022. work of IiP and its service delivery model. Pillar 1: Strategic alignment and focus Sharpening Invest in Pomerania’s strategic alignment and focus is key for further scaling up the development impact of FDI. This will require developing a shared vision together with other regional stakeholders through effective dialogue with public and private sector partners. The following actions are proposed to strengthen the strategic alignment and focus. Stakeholders Expected Cost Actions needed Timeline involved Output impacta implications 1.1 Reconsider the promotion of domes- 2022 Regional FDI Promotion Medium None tic investment as part of IiP’s mandate government Strategy 2022 – 2027 and consider shifting the agency’s IiP Board outlining IiP’s resource allocation from promoting development impact domestic SMEs to promoting foreign endorsed by IiP SMEs, to the extent that the funding Board structure based on EU funds permits. 10. . Strategia Rozwoju Województwa Pomorskiego 2030, available at https://strategia2030.pomorskie.eu/ wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Zalacznik-do-uchwaly_SWP_376_XXXI_21_SRWP2030_120421.pdf Chapter 6 Key actions for strategy implementation 47 Stakeholders Expected Cost Actions needed Timeline involved Output impacta implications 1.2 Clarify and update the agency’s 2022 Regional FDI Promotion Strat- High Low priority sectors in the new FDI strat- government egy 2022 – 2027 out- egy and provide greater clarity and IiP Board lining target sectors/ consistency about priority sectors in segments and types IiP’s communications. of FDI endorsed by IiP Board 1.3 Consider increasing the share of 2027 Regional Each target sector/ High Low resources spent on non-IT-BPO government segment has a (assuming priority sectors. IiP Board dedicated sector reallocation expert and sufficient of existing European financial resources resources) Commission (?) for investment pro- motion a. The estimated costs and impact associated with the proposed actions in this and subsequent action plan tables are indicative and subject to refinement by IiP based on the agency’s available resource situation and operating structures. The actions within each ac- tion plan table are sorted by suggested order of priority, taking into account their potential impact as well as fiscal cost implications. Pillar 2: Coherent institutional framework A coherent institutional framework for investment with a strong regional invest- ment promotion agency at its center is crucial for successful FDI attraction. The following actions are proposed to strengthen the institutional framework. Stakeholders Expected Cost Actions needed Timeline involved Output impact implications 2.1 Amend IiP’s board structure 2023 IiP Board Revised IiP’s board High None to include a board of directors structure with private or advisory board and increase sector participation in private sector participation on its place board. 2.2 Strengthen IiP’s role as coordina- 2025 Regional A coordination plat- Medium Low tor between actors in the technol- government form between actors ogy and digital economy sectors. IiP Board in the technology and digital economy Sector sectors run by IiP or associations established with IiP’s Academia support in place 2.3 Increase coordination between 2027 PAIH A report summarizing High None IiP and PAIH; issue joint report on investors’ experience investor issues and communicate in Pomerania and new FDI strategy to stimulate identifying key invest- increase of investment enquiries ment climate issues provided to IiP by PAIH. submitted to PAIH 48 Inputs to the FDI strategy for Invest in Pomerania SYNTHESIS NOTE Stakeholders Expected Cost Actions needed Timeline involved Output impact implications 2.4 Increase the number of KPIs 2022 IiP Board FDI Promotion High Low and impact indicators that IiP Strategy 2022 – 2027 measures to guide staff and better with a well-defined quantify the benefits and costs of set of KPIs and M&E its works. mechanisms endorsed by IiP Board; annual progress reports pub- lished by IiP 2.5 When hiring additional staff, focus 2027 IiP Board For each target sector, High Medium on sector-specific expertise for pri- IiP has a dedicated ority sectors — align staff salaries sector specialist with with private sector remuneration. private sector expe- rience; staff salaries match average private sector remuneration Pillar 3: Investor services Providing well-designed services along the investment life cycle represents the core of investment promotion. The following actions are proposed to ensure the ser- vices provided by IiP are both relevant and satisfactory to meet investors’ needs. A. Marketing services Stakeholders Expected Cost Actions needed Timeline involved Output impact implications 3.1 As part of the aftercare pro- 2024 Sector A small, focused market- High Medium gram, promote IiP’s services associations ing campaign targeting a supporting linkages and expan- FDI projects selected number of strate- sions among strategic investors gic investors in target sectors. 3.2 Reach out to HQ/main country 2025 Sector A focused aftercare out- High Medium office of established investors associations reach campaign targeting within a priority sector, seek- FDI projects a limited number of strate- ing a face-to-face meeting to gic investors that indicated persuade about the location’s expansion or diversifica- benefits for reinvestment tion potential (expansion or diversification). 3.3 Develop a stronger narrative 2023 City of Image building campaign Medium Low about TriCity region as an Gdańsk promoting TriCity region investment destination and use City of Gdynia as destination for selected a multichannel marketing cam- target industries; higher paign for a global audience. City of Sopot brand recognition of TriCity among potential investors Chapter 6 Key actions for strategy implementation 49 Stakeholders Expected Cost Actions needed Timeline involved Output impact implications 3.4 Review the effectiveness of 2023 FDI projects Social media effectiveness Medium Low to social media programs and report and continuing medium potentially outsource their monitoring system in implementation. place 3.5 Create case studies of success- 2022 Sector A set of testimonials for Medium Low ful investments in the region associations each target sector high- and of start-ups who managed FDI projects lighting Pomerania’s inter- to internationalize in selected national competitiveness target sectors. in key site-selection factors relevant for a given sector B. Information services Stakeholders Expected Cost Actions needed Timeline involved Output impact implications 3.6 Display topical information 2023 Sector Update of IiP website with High Low for foreign investors directly associations dedicated sector & invest- on IiP’s website. FDI projects ment relevant datasets 3.7 Use business intelligence 2022 Sector (Bi)annual sector reviews High Medium tools to develop for- associations (internal use) and a set of ward-looking sector reports. Academia sector reports for each target sector 3.8 Issue a guide to the sector 2025 Sector A practical guide to the sector High Medium regulatory roadmap using associations regulatory roadmap using investors’ input from bian- FDI projects investors’ input from biannual nual investor surveys. investor surveys 3.9 Increase the publicity 2022 Sector A digital sector knowledge Medium Low and dissemination of IiP’s associations database included in IiP’s reports. Site-selection website and promoted consultants among sector & investment specialists C. Assistance services Stakeholders Expected Cost Actions needed Timeline involved Output impact implications 3.10 Strengthen aftercare ser- 2023 Sector A well-designed aftercare High Medium vices for existing investors associations program focusing on assist- to help them grow and Regional ing companies to re-invest reinvest. government and expand in Pomerania 3.11 Continue IiP’s efforts to 2025 Regional & A database of development Medium Medium improve the transparency of municipal land for investment purposes, land ownership to generate governments capturing information related larger plots for manufactur- Real estate to critical investor site-selec- ing investments. developers tion criteria 50 Inputs to the FDI strategy for Invest in Pomerania SYNTHESIS NOTE Stakeholders Expected Cost Actions needed Timeline involved Output impact implications 3.12 Strengthen IiP’s role as coor- 2022 Sector A reskilling initiative for Medium Low dinator for skills initiatives. associations selected target sectors Regional (Digital Technology/Global government Business Services) in place Training institutions/ labor office 3.13 Launch a program providing 2025 Regional A program providing assis- Medium Medium to assistance to companies government tance to companies to imple- high to implement a decarbon- Sector ment a decarbonization and/ ization and/or responsible association or responsible production production program. program (e.g., grant scheme for certification) 3.14 Launch a small grants 2022 Regional & Small grants scheme/dis- Medium High scheme promoting invest- municipal bursement ment outside the TriCity governments region. Sector associations European Commission 3.15 Focus on cluster-building 2025 Sector A pilot linkages program in Medium Medium to in strategic sectors, and associations one selected sector (renewa- high launch a pilot linkages Regional ble energy) program. government 3.16 Expand the information 2023 Regional More investment (work) Medium Low provided on the Live More. government relevant content on the Live Pomerania website. More. Pomerania website 3.17 Promote establishment 2027 Regional An international school estab- Medium Low of International School of government lished in Pomerania Pomerania. Academia D. Advocacy services Stakeholders Expected Cost Actions needed Timeline involved Output impact implications 3.18 Design and periodically 2023 FDI projects Investor survey (project Medium Medium execute a biannual investor IiP Board performance, investment survey. climate, sector ecosystem, expansion/re-investment potential) 3.19 Regularly collect infor- 2024 FDI projects A list of investment climate High Low mation on foreign inves- IiP Board issues/barriers and progress tors’ issues and promote report on their removal solutions with relevant local government officials and stakeholders. Chapter 6 Key actions for strategy implementation 51 Stakeholders Expected Cost Actions needed Timeline involved Output impact implications 3.20 Report on the investment 2024 FDI projects A widely disseminated report High Medium climate/ecosystem for prior- IiP Board on investment climate/eco- ity sectors. system for priority sectors PAIH with a list of policy recom- mendations