SYRIA JOINT DAMAGE ASSESSMENT OF SELECTED CITIES D E C E M B E R 2 0 2 2 Funded by the European Union SYRIA JOINT DAMAGE ASSESSMENT OF SELECTED CITIES D E C E M B E R 2 0 2 2 Funded by the European Union 2 S Y R I A J O I N T D A M A G E A S S E S S M EN T O F S EL E C T ED C I T I E S © 2022 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of the World Bank and the European Union with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of the European Union, the World Bank Group, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank Group and the European Union do not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. 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With support from the European Union: Funded by the European Union Design: Sarah Alameddine Editing: Mark Mattson 3 Disclaimer: This is a largely remotely conducted exercise which relies primarily on data from satellite imagery and social media analytics, corroborated and validated by other sources and means, including data from partners, the European Union, and the Joint Research Center (JRC). Although all efforts have been made to be accurate, and to use publicly available ground-based data when feasible, a remote assessment is a broad, indicative picture of the effects of the conflict on physical infrastructure and the quality of services. This damage assessment is not comprehensive for all cities and regions; it provides estimates for select cities and sectors to the extent possible, and monetary values reflect pre-conflict replacement costs. The Joint Damage Assessment report does not reflect the views of the European Union, the World Bank Group or its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. 4 S Y R I A J O I N T D A M A G E A S S E S S M EN T O F S EL E C T ED C I T I E S Table of Contents ACRONYMS...................................................................................................................................... 8 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS..................................................................................................................... 9 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.................................................................................................................. 10 KEY FINDINGS 12 Damage by Sector 12 Damage by City 15 Scope 16 Methodology 17 Summaries of Sector Reports 17 ‫ملخص تنفيذي‬............................................................................................................................................... 22 INTRODUCTION............................................................................................................................ 35 Context 36 Objective of the Damage Assessment (DA) 36 Scope 37 Methodology 37 Key Challenges 43 Displacement Dynamics 44 MACROECONOMIC IMPACTS....................................................................................................... 47 Pre-Crisis Trends  47 Effects of the Conflict on Economic Activity 48 POVERTY AND WELFARE IMPACTS.............................................................................................. 53 Pre-Crisis Poverty Trends  54 Effects of the Conflict on Poverty  54 IMPACT ON PHYSICAL INFRASTRUCTURE AND AGRICULTURAL ASSETS................................ 57 TRANSPORT .................................................................................................................................. 58 Pre-Crisis Sector Conditions 58 Sectoral Damage Assessment  59 Effects of the Conflict 63 Limitations 63 ELECTRICITY.................................................................................................................................. 64 Pre-Crisis Sector Conditions 64 Sectoral Damage Assessment 64 Effects of the Conflict 68 Limitations 68 WATER SUPPLY AND SANITATION (WSS).................................................................................... 69 Pre-Crisis Sector Conditions 69 Sectoral Damage Assessment 69 Effects of the Conflict 73 Limitations 73 5 CULTURAL HERITAGE.................................................................................................................... 74 Pre-Crisis Sector Conditions 74 Sectoral Damage Assessment 74 Effects of the Conflict 79 AGRI-FOOD VALUE CHAINS.......................................................................................................... 80 Pre-Crisis Sector Conditions 80 Sectoral Damage Assessment 80 Effects of the Conflict 82 Limitations 84 IMPACT ON SOCIAL SECTORS...................................................................................................... 85 HOUSING....................................................................................................................................... 86 Pre-Crisis Sector Conditions 86 Sectoral Damage Assessment 87 Effects of the Conflict 89 Limitations 89 HEALTH.......................................................................................................................................... 90 Pre-Crisis Health Sector Conditions 90 Sectoral Damage Assessment 90 Effects of the Conflict 94 Limitations of the Assessment 95 EDUCATION................................................................................................................................... 96 Pre-Crisis Sector Conditions 96 Sectoral Damage Assessment 96 Effects of the Conflict 101 Limitations 101 MUNICIPAL SERVICES................................................................................................................. 102 Pre-Crisis Sector Conditions 102 Sectoral Damage Assessment 103 Effects and Impact of the Conflict 108 Limitations 109 CROSS-CUTTING SECTORS..........................................................................................................111 PUBLIC INSTITUTIONS .............................................................................................................. 112 Pre-Crisis Sector Conditions 112 Sectoral Damage Assessment 113 Effects of the Conflict 117 Limitations 118 ENVIRONMENT........................................................................................................................... 119 Pre-Crisis Sector Conditions  119 Sectoral Damage Assessment 120 Effects of the Conflict 121 Limitations 124 6 S Y R I A J O I N T D A M A G E A S S E S S M EN T O F S EL E C T ED C I T I E S List of Tables Table 1: Damage by Sectors (US$).............................................................................................................. 14 Table 2: Damage by City (US$).................................................................................................................... 16 Table 3: Damage Inventory (in US$) .......................................................................................................... 62 Table 4: City-level Damage Costs to Roads (in US$) ................................................................................ 62 Table 5: Damage Inventory (in US$)........................................................................................................... 67 Table 6: City-level Damage Cost (in US$)................................................................................................... 68 Table 7: Damage Inventory (in US$)...........................................................................................................71 Table 8: Dam Damage Inventory................................................................................................................72 Table 9: City-Specific Damage Costs..........................................................................................................72 Table 13: Damage Inventory (in US$ Million)............................................................................................78 Table 14: City-Level Damage Cost (in US$ Million)...................................................................................78 Table 10: Damage and Losses in the Agricultural Sector (US$)..............................................................81 Table 11: Damage Inventory (in US$ million).............................................................................................88 Table 12: City-level Damage Cost (in US$ million)....................................................................................88 Table 15: Damage Inventory (in US$ Million) ........................................................................................... 94 Table 16: City-Level Damage Cost (in US$ Million) .................................................................................. 94 Table 17: Damage Inventory (in US$ Million)..........................................................................................100 Table 18: City-Level Damage Cost (high estimate - in US$ Million)......................................................101 Table 19: Physical and Operational Status of Physical Infrastructure................................................103 Table 20: Road Damage and Repair Costs, 2021....................................................................................103 Table 21: Resources for Solid Waste Management in Syrian cities, 2019 vs. pre-conflict................104 Table 22: Rubble Estimates for Low, Medium and High Scenarios..................................................... 105 Table 23: Damage Inventory (in US$ Million)..........................................................................................107 Table 24: City-Level Damage Cost (in US$ Million).................................................................................108 Table 25: Damage Inventory (in US$ Million).......................................................................................... 116 Table 26: City-Level Damage Cost (in US$ Million) ................................................................................ 117 Table 26: E-waste from Damaged Health Facilities................................................................................ 120 Table 27: City-level Estimates of Environmental Damage and Costs from Rubble and Medical E-waste......................................................................................................................................................... 121 Table 28: Net Land Cover Change and Ecosystem Services Loss in 14 Cities of Interest (km2), with Emphasis on Green Cover Change..................................................................................................122 Table 29: Total Forest Loss, 2011–2020....................................................................................................123 7 List of Figures Figure 1: Scope and Limitations of the Syria DA for Selected Cities...................................................... 11 Figure 2: Geographic Scope of the Joint Syria Damage Assessment..................................................... 12 Figure 3: Overall Damage by Sector (US$ billion)..................................................................................... 13 Figure 4: Damage Estimates Across Sectors (US$ Billion, % of Total Damage Estimates).................. 14 Figure 5: Damage to Cities (US$ million)................................................................................................... 15 Figure 6: Imagery Analysis Showing no Damage.....................................................................................40 Figure 7: Imagery Analysis Showing Destruction..................................................................................... 41 Figure 8: IDP arrivals to returnees per governorate from 2016 to August 2022 and Total number of IDP arrivals per governorate from 2016 to 2022................................................. 45 Figure 9: Luminosity Trends in Syria..........................................................................................................48 Figure 10: Petroleum and other liquids production (thousand barrels per day) ............................... 49 Figure 11: GDP by sector (Constant national prices, Index, 2010=100) ................................................ 49 Figure 12: Public and private investment (share of nominal GDP) ....................................................... 49 Figure 13: Gross fixed capital formation (share of nominal GDP, 2015-19) ......................................... 49 Figure 14: Gross exports (US$, billions) .................................................................................................... 50 Figure 15: Gross imports (US$, billions) .................................................................................................... 50 Figure 16: Syrian pound exchange rate (relative to the U.S. dollar) ..................................................... 50 Figure 17: CPI and market exchange rate (annual percentage changes) ............................................. 50 Figure 18: Fiscal budget (US$, billions; share of nominal GDP) ............................................................. 50 Figure 19: Share of budgeted spending (US$, billions) ........................................................................... 50 Figure 20: Distribution of IDPs by Governorate....................................................................................... 55 Figure 21: Deprivation Rankings by City and Welfare Dimension......................................................... 55 Figure 22: Living Standards and Conflicts, October 2018–July 2021..................................................... 55 Figure 23: Electricity Sector – by City......................................................................................................... 65 Figure 24: Electricity Sector – by Type....................................................................................................... 65 Figure 25: Electricity Infrastructure Damage in Aleppo.......................................................................... 66 Figure 26: Operational Status by Facility................................................................................................... 68 Figure 27: Change in Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Irrigation and Rainfed Cropland, 2011–2021....................................................................................................................................82 Figure 29: Change in NDVI in Agricultural Areas, 2011–2021.................................................................83 Figure 28: Median NDVI Change, 2011–2020............................................................................................83 Figure 30: Damage and Functionality by Facility Type............................................................................ 91 Figure 31: Aleppo Health Facilities and Damage Status.......................................................................... 91 Figure 32: Damage and Functionality by City........................................................................................... 91 Figure 33: Accessibility Analysis - Aleppo.................................................................................................. 92 Figure 34: Physical Status of Education Sector by Facility/Asset type.................................................. 97 Figure 35: Operational Status of Education Sector by Facility/Asset type........................................... 97 Figure 36: Physical Status of Education Sector by City........................................................................... 98 Figure 37: Operational Status of Education Sector by City..................................................................... 98 Figure 38: Damage to Education Facilities in Aleppo............................................................................... 99 Figure 39: Syria’s Ranking Under World Governance Indicators from 2000 to 2014........................ 113 Figure 40: State Budget Since 2010 in US$ Billions (in real terms)...................................................... 114 Figure 41: Performance of Syria with Respect to Governance Indicators, 2000–2020..................... 118 Figure 42: Primary Land Use Change in 14 cities...................................................................................122 8 S Y R I A J O I N T D A M A G E A S S E S S M EN T O F S EL E C T ED C I T I E S Acronyms BPD Barrels Per Day CEmONC Comprehensive Emergency Obstetric and Neonatal Care CFS Chemins de Fer Syriens CPI Consumer Price Index  DA Damage Assessment DNA Damage and Needs Assessment  EIA Energy Information Administration ERW Explosive Remnants of War  ESA European Space Agency EU European Union FAO Food and Agriculture Organization GDP Gross Domestic Product  GHE General Housing Establishment IA Imagery Analysis IDFA Identifier for Advertisers IDP Internally Displaced Persons JRC Joint Research Center KBAs Key Biodiversity Areas LAU Local Administrative Units MCM Million Cubic Meters MDGs Millennium Development Goals MENA Middle East and North Africa MoLAE Ministry of Local Administration and Environment MoT Ministry of Transportation NDVI Normalized Difference Vegetation Index  NES North East Syria NWS North West Syria PAI Publicly Available Information PEDEEE Public Establishment for Distribution and Exploitation of Electric Energy PEEGT Public Establishment for Electricity Generation and Transmission PPP Purchasing Power Parity RESTREND Residual Trend Analysis RPBA Recovery and Peacebuilding Assessment SDK Software Development Kit SHR Syrian Hejaz Railways SMEB Survival Minimum Expenditure Basket SYP Syrian Pound TIMSS Trends in Mathematics and Science Study UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization UNHCR UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UN Refugee Agency) UNICEF United Nations Children’s Fund UNOCHA United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs VIIRS Visible and Infrared Imaging Suite WHO World Health Organization WSS Water Supply and Sanitation A c k no w ledgments 9 Acknowledgments The Syria joint Damage Assessment was • Health: Sherin Varkey, D. Priyanka Kanth, conducted by the World Bank Group with and Katriel Friedman   the support of and contributions from • Housing: Sateh Chafic el-Arnaout and colleagues of the Delegation of the European Waad Tammaa Union to Syria, the Joint Research Centre • Municipal Services: Phoram Shah (JRC - EU), and the Urban Analysis Network - • Macroeconomic Impacts: Luan Zhao, Syria (UrBAN-S) consortium. Ali Ibrahim Almelhem, and Ola Hisou • Poverty and Welfare Impacts: The assessment was prepared by a Silvia Redaelli multidisciplinary team from the World • Public Institutions: Roland Lomme, Bank Group led by Joy Aoun (Disaster Risk Rima Koteiche, and Rim Atoui Management Specialist, TTL) under the • Transport: Anne-Cecile Souhaid, guidance of Saroj Kumar Jha (Regional Mira Morad, Hakim A. A. Al-Aghbari, Director, Mashreq Region) and Jaafar Friaa Ikram Saoud, and Gaelle Samaha   (Practice Manager for Urban, Disaster Risk • Water Supply and Sanitation: Sally Zgheib, Management, Resilience & Land, Middle Amal Talbi, and Iyad Rammal East and North Africa (MENA) Region). The core team in charge of overall management, The report benefited from contributions coherency of the report, and drafting received from: the executive summary and introductory chapters was comprised of Needa Malik World Bank Group: Raja Rehan Arshad (Lead (Disaster Risk Management Analyst), Shahrzad Disaster Risk Management Specialist), Harun Mobasher (Consultant), Ghizlane Aqariden Onder, (Sr. Economist), Ayaz Parvez (Lead (Consultant), Muhammad Malik (Consultant), Disaster Risk Management Specialist), Alain Fares Salem (Consultant), and Elke- Willy Aeschlimann (Consultant), and Mounir Esmeralda Dikoume (Consultant). Mahmalat (Consultant). Individual sector chapters were drafted by Partners: Manuel de Rivera Lamo the following specialists from the World de Espinosa (EU), Matina Halkia (EU), Bank Group: Alessandro Annunziato (EU), Ivano Caravaggi (EU), and several key participants of the • Agri-food Value Chains: UrBAN-S consortium. Armine Juergenliemk and Tobias Baedeker    • Cultural Heritage: Guido Licciardi The team is grateful for the overall guidance • Education: Dina Abu-Ghaida and and support provided by the following Almedina Music   colleagues from the World Bank Group: • Electricity: Alexis Madelain and Ghassan Fatima Shah (Country Program Coordinator), Al-Akwaa   Anne Njuguna (Operations Analyst), and • Environment: Lamia Mansour, Zeina El Khalil (Sr. External Affairs Officer). Phoebe Spencer, A S Harinath, Frank Van Woerden, Ahmed Ali Al-Saedi, and Amer Finally, the World Bank Group is thankful Abdulwahab Ali Al-Ghorbany for the generous financial support from the European Union. 10 S Y R I A J O I N T D A M A G E A S S E S S M EN T O F S EL E C T ED C I T I E S EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The 2022 Syria Joint Damage Assessment (DA), conducted by the World Bank Group in collaboration with the European Union (EU), provides an overview of the effects of the ongoing conflict in Syria. The Syria DA is a broad-brush and largely remote-based exercise, focusing on 14 cities and 11 sectors. The DA draws on satellite imagery, remotely collected data, secondary sources of information, and publicly available ground‑based assessments to assess damage to physical infrastructure assets and the accessibility and provision of public services. The objective of the DA is to provide information on the effects of the current crisis on population, physical infrastructure, and quality of service delivery in those cities. Since the DA was conducted during an ongoing conflict, it is not a comprehensive evaluation and cannot be cannot be considered as a substitute for an in‑depth analysis. This report is the sixth World Bank Group assessment conducted during the ongoing conflict; however, it is the first conducted jointly with the EU. The DA distinguishes itself from previous ones by expanding the geographic and sectoral scope. Five cities - Daraya, Al Hasakah, Rastan, Tell Abiad and Zabadani have been added to cities covered by the 2019 report. Moreover, the Agri-food Value Chains, Municipal Services, Cultural Heritage, and Environmental sectors have been added to those assessed in the 2017 report. Similar remote-based damage detection methods were used in this assessment as in previous assessments, which allowed each new iteration to update the damages compared to an established baseline. Figure 1 summarizes the scope and limitations of the DA while figure 2 depicts its geographic scope. Photo credit: Shutterstock E X E C U T I V E S U M M A R Y 11 FIGURE 1: SCOPE AND LIMITATIONS OF THE SYRIA DA FOR SELECTED CITIES Damage Assessment is A broad-brush and remote-based Damage assessment for methodology utilizing a mix of 14 cities and 11 sectors. inventory (facility level) and percentage-based assessment depending on assets and sectors. An assessment of damages. Based on some primary (satellite imagery) and mainly secondary data sources. Damage Assessment is NOT A detailed and ground-based A needs, loss and assessment. macroeconomic impact assessment. Mainly based on Countrywide assessment. primary data sources. Social, economic, institutional, governance, etc., analyses. 12 S Y R I A J O I N T D A M A G E A S S E S S M EN T O F S EL E C T ED C I T I E S FIGURE 2: GEOGR APHIC SCOPE OF THE JOINT SYRIA DAMAGE ASSESSMENT KEY FINDINGS Significant damage to physical million Syrians in 2021.2 By September 2021, infrastructure, deteriorating public the crisis had claimed more than 350,200 services, and growing danger have led lives. 3 Around 13.4 million people need millions of Syrians to flee the country, reducing humanitarian assistance, including 5.9 million the prewar population by almost 18 percent persons in acute need.4 to 17.5 million1 and internally displacing 6.7 Damage by Sector As of January 2022, total damage across was estimated at US$8.7–11.4 billion. the assessed cities and sectors (physical These assessments employed low and high infrastructure,5 social6 and cross-cutting7) replacement cost estimates, based on pre- 1 United Nations (2019) “World Population Prospects 2019” UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division, available at: https://population.un.org/wpp/ 2 Based on UNHCR’s 2021 Syria Humanitarian Needs Overview, available at: https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/ resources/Operational%20Update-June-%202021.pdf. 3 UN, Syria: 10 Years of War Has Left at Least 350,000 Dead. Article can be accessed at: https://news.un.org/en/ story/2021/09/1101162. 4 UNHCR Operational Update, June 2021. Document can be accessed at: https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/ syria-unhcr-operational-update-june-2021#:~:text=The%202021%20Syria%20Humanitarian%20Needs,6.7%20Million%20 internally%20displaced%20Syrians 5 Physical Infrastructure sectors are Electricity, Transport, Agri-food Value Chains, Municipal Services, Cultural Heritage and WASH. 6 Social sectors are Education, Health and Housing. 7 Cross-cutting sectors are Public Institutions and Environment. E X E C U T I V E S U M M A R Y 13 crisis unit replacements costs. For most US$0.8–1.6 billion), Cultural Heritage (6.1 sectors, these ranges were either based on percent of total physical infrastructure -/+10 percent of the average unit cost, or used damage or US$0.3–0.5 billion), Water Supply a reasonable range based on experience.8 and Sanitation (WSS) (3.5 percent of total physical infrastructure damage or US$125–380 Of the total damage estimate, 68 percent million), and Municipal Services9 (0.5 percent of damage or US$5.80–7.8 billion was of total physical infrastructure damage or attributed to damage in the Physical US$38–46 million). Infrastructure sectors, 30 percent or US$2.7–3.3 billion to damage in the Social Within the Social sectors, the Housing sector Sectors, and 2 percent or US$175–278 incurred the greatest damage (86 percent million to Cross-Cutting sectors. Within of total Social sector damage or US$2.3–2.8 the Physical Infrastructure sectors, Agri- billion), followed by Health (13 percent of total food Value Chains were by far the most Social sector damage or US$346–423 million) heavily affected (50 percent of total physical and Education (1 percent of total Social sector infrastructure damage or damage estimates damage or US$25–38 million) (Figures 2, 3, 4 of US$3.4 billion) largely related to irrigation and Table 1). systems. This was followed by Transport (22 percent of total physical infrastructure Under the Cross-Cutting sectors, damage or damage estimates of US$1.2–1.7 Environment was the most heavily affected billion). Damage estimates in the remaining sector (97 percent of total Cross-cutting sector physical infrastructure sectors, in order of damage or US$168–269 million), followed by magnitude, consisted of Electricity (18 percent Public Institutions10 (3 percent of total Cross- of total physical infrastructure damage or cutting sector damage or US$7.0–8.5 million).11 FIGURE 3: OVER ALL DAMAGE BY SECTOR (US$ BILLION) 4 3.43 SECTORAL DAMAGES IN USD BILLION 3.5 3.36 2.59 3.39 3 2.84 2.5 2.33 1.47 1.21 2 1.75 1.62 1.5 1.19 0.38 1 0.80 0.42 0.52 0.5 0.30 0.27 0.38 0.35 0.17 0.12 0.05 0.04 0.01 0.04 0.03 0.01 0 Agri-food Housing Transport Electricity Health Culture Environment Water Municipal Education Governance Value Chains and heritage Supply Services & Sanitation Low estimate - US$ billion High estimate - US$ billion Average estimate - US$ billion 8 With the exception of the Housing and Environment sectors which relied on a fixed cost. 9 Municipal services cover community halls and markets, affordable housing, municipal administration and libraries, and parks and entertainment. While the impact on solid waste management has not been quantified, the impact on service delivery is presented in the Municipal Services chapter of the report. 10 The Public Institutions sector covers a wide range of government facilities including national, municipal, and provincial administrative buildings, courthouses, prisons, fire stations, police stations, vehicle registration offices, civil defense, police traffic offices, post offices, real estate registration offices and other offices and buildings. 11 It is important to note that the damage estimates are not conclusive or representative of the entire sector. The scope of each sector assessment is defined in its chapter. Given data limitations, some sectors had a wider coverage than others. 14 S Y R I A J O I N T D A M A G E A S S E S S M EN T O F S EL E C T ED C I T I E S FIGURE 4: DAMAGE ESTIMATES ACROSS SECTORS (US$ BILLION, % OF TOTAL DAMAGE ESTIMATES)* $0.26, 4% $0.04, 1% $0.03, 0% $0.01, 0% $0.41, 6% Housing Health $0.38, 6% Municipal Services Transport $2.59, 40% Culture and heritage $1.21, 19% Education Electricity Water Supply & Sanitation Governance $1.47, 23% This graph excludes the Agri-food Value Chain Sector damages which are mostly in rural areas. TABLE 1: DAMAGE BY SECTORS (US$) Sector Low estimate High estimate Physical Infrastructure Sectors Electricity* 804,220,000 1,621,640,000 Transport* 1,187,448,665 1,749,931,553 Agri-food Value Chains 12 3,362,307,466 3,427,230,453 Municipal Services 37,728,156 46,182,869 Cultural Heritage* 303,660,000 520,560,000 Water Supply & Sanitation* 124,934,966 379,666,027 Physical Infrastructure Sectors - Total 5,820,299,253 7,745,210,902 Social Sectors  Education* 25,266,897 37,900,346 Health 345,926,357 422,798,881 Housing** 2,326,594,312 2,843,615,270 Social Sectors - Total 2,697,787,566 3,304,314,497 Cross-cutting sectors Environment** 167,649,813 269,039,360 Public Institutions 6,951,735 8,496,565 Cross-cutting sectors – Total 174,601,548 277,535,925 Total 8,692,688,367 11,327,061,324 *The more than 20 percent deviation in low and high estimates relative to the median value for Electricity, Transport, Cultural Heritage, WASH and Education is explained by the wider range of the low and high unit cost estimates. **For the Environment and Housing sectors, the deviation is explained by the number of housing units that have been partially damaged under the low and high scenarios. The extent of damage ranges from a completely destroyed to partially damaged ratio of 1:2 under the low scenario to a ratio of 1:6 under the high scenario. Unit cost estimates are identical for low and high damage scenarios. Source: Based on World Bank staff estimates. 12 The low and high damage estimates for the Agri-food Value Chains sector are similar because damage estimates for irrigation systems are considered to be fixed across the low and high estimates, and are based on publicly available estimates provided by the FAO, which have been cleared by the government. E X E C U T I V E S U M M A R Y 15 Damage by City The city analysis reveals that Aleppo shrubland/sparse vegetation areas) in 11 of incurred the brunt of the damage, followed the 14 cities as these changes alter the value of by Idlib, Homs and Ar-Raqqa. The high ecosystem services. In addition to significant damage estimates for Aleppo stem largely damage to its physical infrastructure, the from the Housing sector, and from the Agri-food Value Chains sector has incurred Electricity, Health and Transport sectors. significant crop and livestock losses as a result Damage in Idlib was largely in the Electricity of the conflict. and Housing sectors. In Homs, the Housing and Health sectors accounted for most of Conflict, displacement, and the collapse of the damage. Finally, in Ar-Raqqa, damage to economic activities and social services have the Housing, Water and Sanitation sectors all contributed to the decline of the welfare accounted for much of the overall damage of the Syrian population. The composite (Figure 5 and Table 2). deprivation index, which is based on damage and functionality assessments in various While not estimated comprehensively in sectors, reflects access to basic public services this assessment, economic losses are also across cities.13 The cities of Daraya, Ar‑Raqqa considered for the Agri-food Value Chains and Palmyra have higher deprivation than and Environment sectors, in addition other cities. Palmyra and Rastan, both in the to damages. These losses were estimated Homs governorate—had the highest human because of the importance of the agriculture capital deprivation and living standards sector to a large part of the population the deprivation, respectively. Cities had very population, the vulnerability of farmers to different human capital and living standards shocks, and because the sector typically incurs indices, notably in Palmyra, Idlib, Rastan and more losses than damages. Furthermore, the Afrin; in contrast, Aleppo, Daraya and Tell assessment considered losses in net landcover Abiad ranked similarly for these indices. change (i.e., green cover such as grass/ FIGURE 5: DAMAGE TO CITIES (US$ MILLION) SHARE OF AVERAGE DAMAGES ACROSS CITIES (%) 3500 3177 0.6 DAMAGES ACROSS CITIES IN USD MILLION 3000 0.55 0.5 2500 2259 0.4 2000 0.3 1500 964 0.2 1000 0.15 522 0.08 421 416 316 255 0.1 500 0.07 0.05 115 0.04 89 58 83 330 271 213 171 0 0.02 0.01 0 Aleppo Idlib Homs Raqqah Deir Ezzor Dara’a Daraya Palmyra Low estimate - US$ million High estimate - US$ million Average estimate damage share - (%) 13 The index is based on measures of human capital (health and education) and living standards (water and sanitation, municipal services and housing). In addition, human capital and living standards indexes also consider the damage to and functionality of “enabling sectors,” which include Public Institutions, Transport and Electricity. 16 S Y R I A J O I N T D A M A G E A S S E S S M EN T O F S EL E C T ED C I T I E S TABLE 2: DAMAGE BY CIT Y 14 (US$)  City Low estimate High estimate Afrin 18,330,747 23,906,768 Aleppo 2,258,615,406 3,177,457,695 Dar’a 171,091,865 254,787,982 Daraya 88,936,166 115,402,733 Deir-ez-Zor 213,428,481 316,471,224 Al Hasakah 30,366,797 41,356,906 Homs 329,978,730 421,496,453 Idlib 521,971,093 963,807,711 Manbij 9,185,416 13,342,764 Palmyra 58,216,031 83,369,610 Ar-Raqqa 270,842,972 416,436,546 Rastan 21,362,766 27,471,625 Tell Abiad 22,286,018 27,372,497 Zabadani 3,639,713 5,021,641 Total 4,018,252,201 5,887,702,153 Scope Temporal Scope: The Syrian crisis started Sectoral scope: The assessment covers the in 2011; therefore, the damage is calculated following key 11 sectors: against the actual or estimated pre-2011 baseline of physical assets, established in the Physical infrastructure sectors: Transport, December 2014 assessment.15 Electricity, Water Supply and Sanitation, Municipal Services, Cultural Heritage, and Agri- Geographic scope: The assessment is food Value Chains. conducted for the following 14 cities: Afrin, Aleppo, Dar’a, Daraya, Deir-ez-Zor, Al Hasakah, Social sectors: Housing, Health, and Homs, Idlib, Manbij, Palmyra, Ar-Raqqa, Education. Rastan, Tell Abiad, and Zabadani. Within these major cities, the data are disaggregated at the Cross-cutting sectors: Environment and Public neighborhood level while for the rest of the Institutions. governorate, the data are disaggregated at the district level. 14 Reasons why the city-level disaggregation does not equal the sector wise disaggregated total: *Excludes Agriculture Sector damages which are mostly in rural areas, and hence, regional analyses have not been conducted by sector specialists *Environment sector - For medical e-waste, it should be noted that the total number of facilities at city level with partial damage/destroyed is less than the total number of facilities at national level, which is why the total e-waste generation rates at these levels are not the same *In the Transport sector, costs for ports, railways and airports could not be disaggregated at city level so this table does not include those numbers *Excludes Dead Cities damage calculation from the Cultural Heritage sector 15 The comparison is also made relative to 2018 for the same cities which were assessed in the previous assessment. E X E C U T I V E S U M M A R Y 17 Photo credit: World Bank Methodology This Syria Damage Assessment (DA) of the asset is damaged, or the damage is provides a broad-brush estimate of the structural). For the damage estimation, the effects of the Syrian conflict on physical average was calculated based on the number assets and service delivery. It relies primarily of damaged facilities, their physical status on a remote-based assessment methodology, (partially damaged or completely destroyed), and uses high resolution satellite imagery, and the estimated pre-crisis unit cost social media analytics, data mining, and associated with each asset class. Whenever publicly available information.16 However, possible, the DA also assessed the operational it uses damage data from publicly available status of facilities (functional or nonfunctional) ground-based assessments to confirm to determine the level and quality of service findings whenever possible. delivery across the different sectors. The assessment adopts from the Post-Disaster Based on the reported damage level, each Needs Assessment (PDNA) methodology asset was assigned a physical damage jointly developed by the European Union, status based on three classifications: World Bank, and United Nations, and has been no damage, partially damaged (less than utilized in numerous analytical assessments 40 percent of the asset is damaged), or around the world.17,18 completely destroyed (more than 40 percent Summaries of Sector Reports 1. MACROECONOMIC IMPACT activity has contracted in all sectors but devastatingly so in the Hydrocarbon sector The economic impact of the conflict is large because of damage to energy infrastructure. and growing. By 2019, GDP in Syria had shrunk International trade has also declined sharply, by more than half its 2010 level. Economic especially exports, due to conflict-related 16 These sources of public information include EU, and JRC’s agricultural dataset and geospatial data. 17 European Union, World Bank, United Nations. Post-Disaster Needs Assessments, Volume A Guidelines (2013). . 18 The PDNA methodology draws from the Damage and Loss Assessment (DaLA) and the Human Recovery Needs Assessment (HRNA) methodology. 18 S Y R I A J O I N T D A M A G E A S S E S S M EN T O F S EL E C T ED C I T I E S disruptions and international sanctions. 3. TRANSPORT The persistent trade deficit has led to drawdown of foreign exchange reserves, Overall damage in the Transport sector is currency depreciation and hyperinflation. estimated at US$1.2–1.7 billion. Approximately These conditions have greatly reduced 11 percent of the total length of motorways, fiscal revenues and resulted in a large and trunk roads, primary roads, secondary roads, sustained fiscal deficit. Overall, the conflict and bridges in the 14 cities sustained damage, has severely affected Syria’s economy through with primary and secondary roads accounting the combined effects of destruction of capital, for nearly 85 percent of the total damage. The casualties, forced migration, and economic percentage of damaged roads varies widely disorganization. among cities, from 1.4 percent of motorways, trunk roads, primary and secondary roads in Aleppo, to 63 percent in Afrin, 28 percent in 2. POVERTY AND WELFARE Ar-Raqqa and 23 percent in Idlib. The three cities with the longest lengths of damaged EFFECT roads (Ar-Raqqa, Idlib and Homs) account for around 65 percent of all road damages in The effects of conflict have been widespread the 14 cities, with Ar-Raqqa alone accounting across sectors and locations, and detrimental for 42 percent of the total damage to roads to household welfare. Destruction of assets and bridges. Across the 14 cities studied, in and the limited functionality of remaining 2021, about 1,150,000 people, or 23 percent ones have a direct impact on household of the population, were unable to access a welfare and key services. Based on the health care facility within 20 minutes, and Damage Assessment, cities have been ranked about 550,000 people, or 11 percent of the according to a composite deprivation index of population, were unable to reach a health damage and functionality in various sectors. care facility within 30 minutes. Similarly, 18 Two broad categories were considered for the percent, or over 900,000 people must travel welfare assessment: human capital (health over 10 minutes by car to reach education and education) and living standards (water and facilities, a typical threshold for education sanitation, municipal services, and housing).19 accessibility, and 2 percent, or over 100,000 In addition, human capital and living standard people, have no access to education facilities indexes also consider the damage to and in their neighborhood. The monetary value functionality of “enabling sectors”, which of Transport sector damage to roads in the 14 include Public Institutions, Transport and cities ranges between US$127.4—169.9 million. Electricity. On average, Daraya, Ar-Raqqa and No data are available for the Railway sector Palmyra have the highest relative deprivation. except a 2018 publication by the Ministry of Palmyra—in the Homs governorate— ranks Transport which estimates damage at around first in terms of human capital deprivation, US$1–1.5 billion, including equipment, which while Rastan—also in the Homs governorate— also has an impact on urban-rural linkages and is first in terms of living standards deprivation. passenger and freight transport. As detailed in the report, conflict has had diverging impacts across sectors within cities. Cities such as Palmyra, Idlib, Rastan and Afrin rank differently for human capital and living 4. ELECTRICITY standards indexes while other cities, such as Aleppo, Daraya and Tell Abiad rank similarly The Electricity sector suffered damages across these two indices. estimated between US$804.2–1,621.6 million across the 14 cities, with Aleppo and Idlib 19 It was not possible to include livelihoods in the welfare assessment due to a lack of data for the Agriculture and Industrial sectors. E X E C U T I V E S U M M A R Y 19 experiencing most of the damage, with 28 6. AGRI-FOOD VALUE CHAINS percent and 60 percent of their electricity infrastructure damaged, respectively. The Syrian war has resulted in an estimated Approximately 6.5 percent of facilities have US$3.4 billion20 in damage to silos, agricultural some degree of damage, while approximately infrastructure and assets, including irrigation 6 percent are completely destroyed. Three and wholesale markets in the assessed areas. out of the 14 power plants assessed (which In addition, the lack of irrigation, limited are the most expensive assets in the sector), inputs, security constraints, and climatic which provide over 20 percent of capacity in variability has led to US$12.9–18.1 billion in the country, have some degree of damage agricultural output losses from annual and while 9 of the 49 substations are damaged. perennial crops, livestock, and aquaculture Service delivery has been severely impacted, over the last decade (with agricultural crops with persistent power outages common in accounting for most lost production). many cities. While efforts are being made to rebuild the sector, several challenges remain, including inadequate investment, power outages, electricity theft, and limited fuel to 7. HOUSING power the thermal plants. Total damage to the Housing sector across the 14 assessed cities is estimated at US$2.3–2.8 billion. The conflict is estimated to have 5. WATER SUPPLY AND affected up to 210,000 housing units—with SANITATION approximately 30,000 units destroyed and up to 180,000 partially damaged. Aleppo has Damage costs to the water supply and lost an estimated 135,000 housing units to sanitation infrastructure in the 14 cities the conflict, equating to around 21 percent of are estimated between US$124.9–379.7 houses in the city and 70 percent of damaged million. The Water sector’s main physical housing stock in the 14 cities. Informal infrastructure was damaged during the areas were disproportionally impacted by conflict. Around 17 percent of assets, the conflict, exacerbating their dire living predominantly wells and water towers/tanks, conditions. have been damaged, mainly in Aleppo and Idlib. Although a large part of the physical infrastructure was undamaged, 51 percent 8. CULTURAL HERITAGE suffered from reduced functionality, including 11 percent that is not functioning, which is Damage to cultural and heritage sites is a significant problem for the most affected estimated at US$303.7–520.6 million. Syria cities. The 11-year-long crisis has led to lack is home to some of the most globally varied of maintenance, lack of assets, and financial and important cultural heritage sites in limitations which have greatly impacted WSS the Mediterranean, where tangible and services. Alternative service providers have intangible heritage have intertwined over sprung up, providing expensive tankered many millennia. Syria hosts six World Heritage water (e.g., about US$7 per m3) of unregulated Sites21, all of which are on the List of World quality and provenance. Heritage in Danger, and 11 sites on the World Heritage Tentative List. Cultural heritage as a 20 (1) the urban-related data provides estimates for the selected cities whereas the rural estimates provide the impact on the national scale, (2) the damage of the irrigation system had a spillover effect on the ag production beyond the area of damage; (3) damage in the agricultural output attributable to the conflict is difficult to separate from those caused by climate change or natural variability. 21 The sites are: Site of Palmyra; Ancient City of Bosra; Ancient City of Aleppo; Crac des Chevaliers; Qal’at Salah El- Din; Ancient Villages of Northern Syria. 20 S Y R I A J O I N T D A M A G E A S S E S S M EN T O F S EL E C T ED C I T I E S whole has been heavily affected by the crisis. facilities (15 percent). Across the cities, This assessment included partial data on almost 70 percent of education facilities are mosques, churches, convents, monasteries, functioning, regardless of facility type, with shrines, museums, archives, heritage primary schools reporting the highest share of buildings, archaeological sites and dead non-functional facilities. cities. This assessment includes deep dives on Aleppo, Palmyra, and Dead Cities due to While many educational facilities are higher levels of damage. Historic housing is undamaged or have been repaired, access accounted for in the housing section. is severely restricted. The main barriers to access include: (i) insecurity in travelling to and from school; (ii) fear of being targeted while in school; (iii) lack of teachers and 9. HEALTH limited teaching and learning materials; and (iv) a need for children and young people Total damage to the Health sector in the to supplement family income by foregoing assessed cities is estimated at US$345.9–422.8 education in order to work.22 Therefore, million. About 28 percent of facilities have while facilities are functional, this means been partially damaged and 8 percent of little if they are not used, and their use is health facilities are estimated to be completely likely overreported. Indeed, the services and destroyed. Palmyra has suffered the learning opportunities available to students greatest damage, with 3 of 4 health facilities remain limited given the risks associated with reported damaged, while Daraya suffered the ongoing conflict. most lost functionality, with 7 out of 8 facilities not functioning. In terms of damage percentage, Deir-ez-Zor was the second most affected city, reporting 32 of 43 facilities 11. MUNICIPAL SERVICES as either partially damaged or completely destroyed, while Palmyra suffered the most The total cost of damage to municipal completely destroyed facilities (1 of 4). Across infrastructure, covering municipal assets and the 14 cities covered by the DA, 62 percent of road networks, is estimated at US$37.7–46.2 health facilities are functioning. million. These assets include municipal administration buildings and libraries, parks and cultural sites, community halls and markets, and affordable housing; the damage 10. EDUCATION to these assets is substantial at US$21.3–25.7 million.23 This, combined with damage to road Total damage to the Education sector is infrastructure which is estimated at US$16.4– estimated at US$25.3–37.9 million. About 20.5 million, has resulted in a significant 13 percent of education facilities have been loss in provision of and access to public partially damaged, and 5 percent completely services. The highest damage is estimated destroyed across the 14 cities. Palmyra to be among community halls and markets suffered from the highest impact, with 87 (US$13.4–15.0 million), followed by affordable percent of education facilities reported as housing (US$3.8–4.8 million), municipal damaged and non-functional. Ar-Raqqa administration and libraries (US$2.4–3.0 was the second most affected city, with 57 million), and parks and entertainment percent of facilities either partially damaged or (US$1.7–2.9 million). The most affected completely destroyed, while Aleppo suffered physical infrastructure is affordable housing from the highest proportion of destroyed 22 UNOCHA. 23 The cities considered in the damage assessment of municipal services are Afrin, Aleppo, Dar’a, Daraya, Deir-ez-Zor, Al Hasakah, Homs, Idlib, Manbij, Palmyra, Ar-Raqqah, Rastan, Tell Abiad and Zabadani. E X E C U T I V E S U M M A R Y 21 buildings (57 percent partially functioning or 13. ENVIRONMENT not functioning) followed by community halls and markets (38 percent partially functioning Environmental damage accounted for or not functioning), parks and entertainment in this DA totals US$167.6–269.0 million. (23 percent partially functioning or not This damage is comprised of the cost functioning) and municipal administration of clearing and managing rubble from facilities and libraries (8 percent partially damaged housing (US$167.3–268.7 million), functioning or not functioning). In addition and of processing electronic waste from to this physical damage, access to public health facilities (US$0.4 million). The cost services has been adversely affected by the of ecosystem service losses is estimated damage to municipal roads. Finally, solid waste at US$36 million. However, it is not management and wastewater management, possible to estimate the total cost of which were poor before the conflict, have environmental degradation deteriorated significantly, exposing much of due to displacement and conflict, and the population to health risks. The extensive mismanaged solid waste and wastewater (due accumulation of debris resulting from the to significantly reduced government capacity conflict, which is yet to be removed, is another at local level) within the scope of this DA. health risk for the population. Key challenges The toll of the conflict on Syria’s environment in providing municipal services remain the lack has been immense, with analyses of of funding to restore damaged assets and the environmental damage finding widespread loss of institutional capacity. contamination and pollution related to extraction, infrastructure, and weapons. The DA estimated that 160 tons of e-waste has 12. PUBLIC INSTITUTIONS been generated from destroyed and partially damaged health facilities while 17.6– Damage to public institutions is estimated 28.3 million tons of rubble comes from at US$7.0–8.5 million across the 14 cities. damaged housing. The highest environmental About 10 percent (13 out of 127) of the damage from special waste at the city level assessed facilities (post offices, courthouses, is in Aleppo, followed by Dar’a, Ar-Raqqa, national administrative buildings, provincial Homs, Idlib and Daraya. The second category administrative facilities, police stations, etc.) of environmental damage relates to natural across the 14 cities have been damaged in the ecosystems, changes in land use, and the conflict; 2 percent are completely destroyed, impacts of conflict and displacement on and 8 percent are partially damaged. Manbij, environmental services. Palmyra and Ar-Raqqa are the cities most affected by the conflict. In Ar-Raqqa, 3 out of 9 facilities have been completely destroyed; 1 out of 3 facilities in Manbij, and 1 out of 3 in Palmyra have been partially damaged. Other cities that have been impacted are Zabadani (25 percent of assessed facilities), Idlib (13 percent), Deir-ez-Zor (13 percent), Aleppo (13 percent) and Dar’a (4 percent). The damage to these administrative buildings has adversely affected the delivery of public services.  ‫‪ 22‬ملخص تنفيذي‬ ‫ملخص تنفيذي ملخص تنفيذي‬ ‫يقدم التقي�يم المشترك لألضرار في سوريا لعام ‪ ،2022‬الذي أجرته مجموعة‬ ‫ا لآلثار الناجمة عن الصراع‬ ‫ا عام ً‬‫البنك الدولي بالتعاون مع االتحاد األوروبي‪ ،‬عرض ً‬ ‫نفذت‬ ‫ويعد هذا التقي�يم بمثابة عملية تقدير عامة لألضرار ُ‬ ‫الدائر في البالد‪ُ .‬‬ ‫ا‪ .‬واعتمد‬ ‫ً‬ ‫مختار‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ً‬ ‫قطاع‬ ‫و‪11‬‬ ‫مدينة‬ ‫‪14‬‬ ‫على‬ ‫تركيزها‬ ‫وانصب‬ ‫عد‪،‬‬ ‫إلى حد كبير عن ُ‬ ‫ب‬ ‫بعد ومصادر ثانوية‬ ‫التقي�يم على صور األقمار الصناعية وبيانات جرى جمعها عن ُ‬ ‫للمعلومات‪ ،‬وتقي�يمات متاحة في الفضاء العام جرى تنفيذها على األرض‬ ‫لتقي�يم حجم األضرار التي لحقت بأصول البنية التحتية المادية وإمكانية الوصول‬ ‫إليها واستخدامها ومستوى تقديم الخدمات العامة‪ .‬ويهدف التقي�يم إلى‬ ‫توفير معلومات عما خلفته األزمة الحالية من آثار على السكان والبنية التحتية‬ ‫ا ألن‬ ‫المادية وجودة الخدمات المتاحة في المدن التي شملها التقي�يم‪ .‬ونظر ً‬ ‫ا‪ ،‬فال ينبغي اعتباره تقي�يم ً‬ ‫ا‬ ‫هذا التقي�يم اأجري في وقت ال يزال الصراع فيه مستمر ً‬ ‫شامالً أو بديالً عن عمل تحليلي يتسم بالعمق والشمول‪.‬‬ ‫على الرغم من أن هذا هو التقي�يم السادس الذي تجريه مجموعة البنك الدولي‬ ‫في أثناء الصراع المستمر في سوريا‪ ،‬إال أنه أول تقي�يم يتم إجراؤه باالشتراك مع‬ ‫االتحاد األوروبي‪ .‬وما يميز هذا التقي�يم هو أن نطاقه الجغرافي والقطاعي أكبر‬ ‫وأوسع من التقي�يمات السابقة‪ .‬فباإلضافة إلى المدن التي غطاها تقي�يم عام‬ ‫‪ ،2017‬شمل تقي�يم هذا العام خمس مدن إضافية هي داريا والحسكة والرستن‬ ‫وتل أبيض والزبداني‪ .‬عالوة على ذلك‪ ،‬تمت إضافة قطاعات الزراعة والخدمات‬ ‫البلدية والتراث الثقافي والبيئة إلى تلك التي تم شملها تقي�يم عام ‪.2019‬‬ ‫بعد في هذا التقي�يم كما‬ ‫وجرى استخدام طرق مماثلة للكشف عن األضرار عن ُ‬ ‫هو الحال في التقي�يمات السابقة‪ ،‬ما مكن من تحديث البيانات حول حجم الضرر‬ ‫الجديد عبر المقارنة مع خط أساس جرى وضعه من خالل التقي�يمات السابقة‪.‬‬ ‫ويلخص الشكل ‪ 1‬نطاق وحدود التقي�يم‪ ،‬بينما يوضح الشكل ‪ 2‬نطاقه الجغرافي‪.‬‬ ‫‪Photo credit: Shutterstock‬‬ ‫التقي�يم المشترك لحجم األضرار في مدن سورية مختارة ‪23‬‬ ‫الشكل ‪ :1‬نطاق وحدود التقي�يم في مدن سورية مختارة‬ ‫تقي�يم األضرار هو‪:‬‬ ‫تقي�يم لألضرار في ‪ 14‬مدينة‬ ‫تقي�يم عام جرى تنفيذه عن ُ‬ ‫بعد‬ ‫و‪ 11‬قطاع ً‬ ‫ا‬ ‫باستخدام مجموعة من األدوات‬ ‫لتقي�يم نسبة الضرر في األصول‬ ‫والقطاعات‬ ‫قائم على بعض المصادر‬ ‫تقي�يم لألضرار‬ ‫األولية (صور األقمار الصناعية)‬ ‫وبشكل رئيسي على‬ ‫مصادر ثانوية للبيانات‬ ‫تقي�يم األضرار ليس‬ ‫ا لالحتياجات أو تقي�يم ً‬ ‫ا‬ ‫تقي�يم ً‬ ‫تقي�يم ً‬ ‫ا مفصالً جرى تنفيذه‬ ‫لألثر االقتصادي الكلي‬ ‫على األرض‬ ‫تقي�يم ً‬ ‫ا شامالً للبالد‪ ،‬أو تحليالً‬ ‫ا على مصادر‬ ‫تقي�يم ً‬ ‫ا قائم ً‬ ‫للوضع االجتماعي‪ ،‬أو االقتصادي‪،‬‬ ‫رئيسية للبيانات‬ ‫أو المؤسسي‪ ،‬أو اإلداري‪،‬‬ ‫أو غير ذلك‬ ‫‪ 24‬ملخص تنفيذي‬ ‫الشكل ‪ :2‬النطاق الجغرافي لتقي�يم األضرار المشترك في سوريا‬ ‫النتائج الرئيسية للتقي�يم‬ ‫البالد بحلول عام ‪ 2.2021‬وبحلول سبتمبر‪/‬أيلول ‪،2021‬‬ ‫أدت األضرار الجسيمة التي لحقت بالبنية التحتية المادية‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫كانت األزمة قد أودت بحياة أكثر من ‪ 350200‬شخص‪.‬‬ ‫وتدهور الخدمات العامة والمخاطر المتزايدة الناجمة‬ ‫كما يحتاج حوالي ‪ 13.4‬مليون شخص إلى مساعدات‬ ‫عن الصراع إلى فرار مالي�ين السوري�ين من البالد‪ ،‬مما‬ ‫إنسانية‪ ،‬بمن فيهم ‪ 5.9‬مالي�ين شخص هم في حاجة‬ ‫أدى إلى انخفاض عدد السكان بنسبة ‪ 18%‬تقري�ب ً‬ ‫ا إلى‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫ماسة إليها‪.‬‬ ‫ا‪ 1‬ناهيك عن نزوح ‪ 6.7‬مالي�ين شخص داخل‬ ‫‪ 17.5‬مليون ً‬ ‫األضرار حسب القطاع‬ ‫مليار دوالر‪ .‬واستخدمت هذه التقي�يمات تقديرات ت�كلفة‬ ‫قدر إجمالي حجم األضرار‬ ‫لغاية يناير‪/‬كانون الثاني ‪ُ ،2022‬‬ ‫بناء على ت�كاليف استبدال‬ ‫ً‬ ‫استبدال منخفضة ومرتفعة‪،‬‬ ‫في المدن والقطاعات التي شملها التقي�يم (البنية‬ ‫الوحدات قبل األزمة‪ .‬وبالنسبة لمعظم القطاعات‪ ،‬كانت‬ ‫التحتية المادية‪ 5‬واألضرار االجتماعية‪ ،6‬وأضرار القطاعات‬ ‫هذه النطاقات إما تستند إلى ‪ 10% +/-‬من متوسط‬ ‫المشتركة‪ )7‬بمبلغ يتراوح من ‪ 8.7‬مليارات دوالر إلى ‪11.4‬‬ ‫«التوقعات السكانية في العالم ‪ - »2019‬شعبة السكان التابعة إلدارة الشؤون االقتصادية واالجتماعية باألمم المتحدة‪https:// ،‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪/population.un.org/wpp‬‬ ‫ا إلى تقري�ر «نظرة عامة حول االحتياجات اإلنسانية في سوريا لعام ‪ »2021‬الصادر عن المفوضية السامية لألمم المتحدة‬ ‫استناد ً‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫لشؤون الالجئين‪.https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/Operational%20Update-June-%202021.pdf ،‬‬ ‫األمم المتحدة‪« ،‬سوريا‪ 350 :‬ألف قتيل خالل ‪ 10‬سنوات‪.https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/09/1101162 .‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫تقري�ر عمليات المفوضية السامية لألمم المتحدة لشؤون الالجئين‪ ،‬يونيو ‪https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-re- .2021‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪public/syria-unhcr-operational-update-june-2021#:~:text=The%202021%20Syria%20Humanitarian%20Needs,6.7%20Mil-‬‬ ‫‪lion%20internally%20displaced%20Syrians‬‬ ‫تشمل قطاعات البنية التحتية المادية الكهرباء والنقل والزراعة والخدمات البلدية والتراث الثقافي وخدمات المياه والصرف الصحي‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫والنظافة الصحية‪.‬‬ ‫القطاعات االجتماعية هي التعليم والصحة واإلسكان‪.‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫القطاعات المشتركة هي المؤسسات العامة والبيئة‪.‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫التقي�يم المشترك لحجم األضرار في مدن سورية مختارة ‪25‬‬ ‫والنظافة الصحية (ما نسبته ‪ 3.5%‬من إجمالي األضرار‬ ‫بناء على‬ ‫ً‬ ‫ت�كلفة الوحدة‪ ،‬أو تستخدم نطاق ً‬ ‫ا معقوالً‬ ‫أو ما يتراوح من ‪ 125‬مليون إلى ‪ 380‬مليون دوالر)؛‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫الخبرة‪.‬‬ ‫الخدمات البلدية‪( 9‬ما نسبته ‪ 0.5%‬من إجمالي األضرار أو‬ ‫ما يتراوح من ‪ 38‬مليون إلى ‪ 46‬مليون دوالر)‪.‬‬ ‫من إجمالي األضرار المقدرة‪ ،‬كان ‪ 68%‬من الضرر أو ما‬ ‫يتراوح قيمته من ‪ 5.8‬إلى ‪ 7.8‬مليارات دوالر في قطاعات‬ ‫فيما يتعلق بالقطاعات االجتماعية‪ ،‬تعرض قطاع‬ ‫البنية التحتية المادية‪ ،‬و‪ 30%‬أو ما يتراوح من ‪ 2.7‬إلى‬ ‫اإلسكان ألكبر قدر من الضرر (‪ 86%‬من إجمالي أضرار‬ ‫‪ 3.3‬مليارات دوالر في القطاعات االجتماعية‪ ،‬و‪ 2%‬أو‬ ‫القطاعات االجتماعية أو ما يتراوح من ‪ 2.3‬مليار إلى ‪2.8‬‬ ‫ما يتراوح من ‪ 175‬إلى ‪ 278‬مليون دوالر في القطاعات‬ ‫مليار دوالر‪ ،‬يليه قطاع الصحة (‪ 13%‬من إجمالي أضرار‬ ‫المشتركة‪ .‬وفي قطاعات البنية التحتية المادية‪ ،‬كانت‬ ‫القطاعات االجتماعية أو ما يتراوح من ‪ 346‬مليون إلى‬ ‫سالسل القيمة الغذائية الزراعية هي القطاع الفرعي‬ ‫‪ 423‬مليون دوالر)‪ ،‬ثم التعليم (‪ 1%‬من إجمالي أضرار‬ ‫ا إلى حد بعيد (ت�كبد هذا القطاع الفرعي ما‬ ‫األكثر تضرر ً‬ ‫القطاعات االجتماعية أو ما يتراوح من ‪ 25‬مليون إلى ‪38‬‬ ‫نسبته ‪ 50%‬أو ما يعادل ‪ 3.4‬مليارات دوالر من إجمالي‬ ‫مليون دوالر) (األشكال ‪ 2‬و‪ 3‬و‪ 4‬والجدول ‪.)1‬‬ ‫األضرار التي لحقت بقطاع البنية التحتية المادية)‬ ‫ا في أنظمة الري‪ .‬وتبع ذلك قطاع النقل (ت�كبد‬ ‫وخصوص ً‬ ‫فيما يتعلق بالقطاعات المشتركة‪ ،‬تعرض قطاع البيئة‬ ‫هذا القطاع الفرعي ما نسبته ‪ 22%‬من إجمالي األضرار‬ ‫ألكبر قدر من الضرر (‪ 97%‬من إجمالي أضرار القطاعات‬ ‫أو ما يتراوح من ‪ 1.2‬إلى ‪ 1.7‬مليار دوالر)‪ .‬وشملت‬ ‫المشتركة أو ما يتراوح من ‪ 168‬مليون إلى ‪ 269‬مليون‬ ‫تقديرات األضرار في قطاعات البنية التحتية المادية‬ ‫دوالر)‪ ،‬تاله قطاع المؤسسات العامة‪ 3%( 10‬من إجمالي‬ ‫رتبة حسب نسبة وحجم الضرر‪ ،‬الكهرباء‬ ‫مَ‬‫المتبقية‪ُ ،‬‬ ‫أضرار القطاعات المشتركة أو ما يتراوح من ‪ 7‬إلى ‪8.5‬‬ ‫(ما نسبته ‪ 18%‬من إجمالي األضرار أو ما يتراوح من‬ ‫‪11‬‬ ‫مالي�ين دوالر)‪.‬‬ ‫‪ 800‬مليون إلى ‪ 1.6‬مليار دوالر)؛ التراث الثقافي (ما‬ ‫نسبته ‪ 6.1%‬من إجمالي األضرار أو ما يتراوح من ‪300‬‬ ‫مليون إلى ‪ 500‬مليون دوالر)؛ المياه والصرف الصحي‬ ‫الشكل ‪ :3‬حجم األضرار الكلية حسب القطاع (بالمليار دوالر)‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪3.43‬‬ ‫‪3.5‬‬ ‫‪3.36‬‬ ‫‪2.59‬‬ ‫ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮات اﻷﺿﺮار ﻓﻲ اﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎت‬ ‫ﺑﻤﻠﻴﺎرات اﻟﺪوﻻرات اﻷﻣﺮﻳﻜﻴﺔ‬ ‫‪3.39‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪2.84‬‬ ‫‪2.5‬‬ ‫‪2.33‬‬ ‫‪1.47‬‬ ‫‪1.21‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1.75‬‬ ‫‪1.62‬‬ ‫‪1.5‬‬ ‫‪1.19‬‬ ‫‪0.38‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.80‬‬ ‫‪0.42‬‬ ‫‪0.52‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.30‬‬ ‫‪0.27‬‬ ‫‪0.38‬‬ ‫‪0.35‬‬ ‫‪0.17‬‬ ‫‪0.12‬‬ ‫‪0.05‬‬ ‫‪0.04‬‬ ‫‪0.01‬‬ ‫‪0.04‬‬ ‫‪0.03‬‬ ‫‪0.01‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫اﻟﺰراﻋﺔ‬ ‫اﻹﺳﻜﺎن‬ ‫اﻟﻨﻘﻞ‬ ‫اﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎء‬ ‫اﻟﺼﺤﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﺜﻘﺎﻓﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﺨﺪﻣﺎت اﻟﻤﻴﺎه واﻟﺼﺮف‬ ‫اﻟﺘﻌﻠﻴﻢ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺆﺳﺴﺎت‬ ‫واﻟﺘﺮاث‬ ‫اﻟﺼﺤﻲ‬ ‫اﻟﺒﻠﺪﻳﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﺾ ‪ -‬ﺑﻤﻠﻴﺎرات اﻟﺪوﻻرات‬ ‫ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﻣﺮﺗﻔﻊ ‪ -‬ﺑﻤﻠﻴﺎرات اﻟﺪوﻻرات‬ ‫ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ‪ -‬ﺑﻤﻠﻴﺎرات اﻟﺪوﻻرات‬ ‫‪ 8‬باست�ثناء قطاعي اإلسكان والبيئة اللذين كانا يعتمدان على ت�كلفة ثابتة‪.‬‬ ‫‪ 9‬تغطي الخدمات البلدية القاعات واألسواق المجتمعية‪ ،‬واإلسكان ميسور الت�كلفة‪ ،‬واإلدارة البلدية والمكتبات‪ ،‬والمتنزهات ومرافق‬ ‫الترفيه‪ .‬ولم يتم تقدير حجم الضرر الذي تركه الصراع على إدارة النفايات الصلبة‪ ،‬ولكن تم عرض الت�أثير المترتب على تقديم الخدمات‬ ‫في فصل الخدمات البلدية من هذا التقري�ر‪.‬‬ ‫‪ 10‬يغطي قطاع المؤسسات العامة مجموعة واسعة من المرافق الحكومية بما في ذلك المباني اإلدارية الوطنية والبلدية والمحلية‬ ‫والمحاكم والسجون ومراكز اإلطفاء ومراكز الشرطة ومكاتب ترخيص المركبات والدفاع المدني ومكاتب المرور التابعة للشرطة‬ ‫ومكاتب البريد ومكاتب التسجيل العقاري وغيرها من المكاتب والمرافق األخرى‪.‬‬ ‫‪ 11‬من المهم مالحظة أن تقديرات األضرار ليست قاطعة أو ممثلة للقطاع بأكمله‪ ،‬وي�رد نطاق تقي�يم كل قطاع في الفصل الخاص به‪.‬‬ ‫ا لمحدودية البيانات‪ ،‬كان لبعض القطاعات تغطية أوسع من غيرها‪.‬‬ ‫ولكن نظر ً‬ ‫‪ 26‬ملخص تنفيذي‬ ‫الشكل ‪ :4‬تقديرات حجم األضرار حسب القطاعات الفرعية (كنسبة مئوية من القطاعات الرئيسية)‬ ‫‪$0.26, 4%‬‬ ‫‪$0.04, 1% $0.03, 0%‬‬ ‫‪$0.01, 0%‬‬ ‫‪$0.41, 6%‬‬ ‫اﻹﺳﻜﺎن‬ ‫اﻟﺼﺤﺔ‬ ‫‪$0.38, 6%‬‬ ‫اﻟﺨﺪﻣﺎت اﻟﺒﻠﺪﻳﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﻨﻘﻞ‬ ‫‪$2.59, 40%‬‬ ‫اﻟﺜﻘﺎﻓﺔ واﻟﺘﺮاث‬ ‫‪$1.21, 19%‬‬ ‫اﻟﺘﻌﻠﻴﻢ‬ ‫اﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎء‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻴﺎه واﻟﺼﺮف اﻟﺼﺤﻲ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺆﺳﺴﺎت اﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ‬ ‫‪$1.47, 23%‬‬ ‫يست�ثني هذا الرسم البياني األضرار التي لحقت بقطاع سلسلة القيمة الغذائية الزراعية ألنها تقع في الغالب في المناطق الريفية‬ ‫الجدول ‪ :1‬األضرار حسب القطاع (بالدوالر)‬ ‫تقدير مرتفع‬ ‫تقدير منخفض‬ ‫القطاع‬ ‫قطاعات البنية التحتية المادية‬ ‫‪1,621,640,000‬‬ ‫‪804,220,000‬‬ ‫الكهرباء*‬ ‫‪1,749,931,553‬‬ ‫‪1,187,448,665‬‬ ‫النقل*‬ ‫‪3,427,230,453‬‬ ‫‪3,362,307,466‬‬ ‫سالسل القيمة الزراعية الغذائية‬ ‫‪12‬‬ ‫‪46,182,869‬‬ ‫‪37,728,156‬‬ ‫الخدمات البلدية‬ ‫‪520,560,000‬‬ ‫‪303,660,000‬‬ ‫التراث الثقافي*‬ ‫‪379,666,027‬‬ ‫‪124,934,966‬‬ ‫إمدادات المياه وخدمات الصرف الصحي*‬ ‫‪7,745,210,902‬‬ ‫‪5,820,299,253‬‬ ‫قطاعات البنية التحتية المادية ‪ -‬إجمالي حجم األضرار‬ ‫القطاعات االجتماعية‬ ‫‪37,900,346‬‬ ‫‪25,266,897‬‬ ‫التعليم*‬ ‫‪422,798,881‬‬ ‫‪345,926,357‬‬ ‫الصحة‬ ‫‪2,843,615,270‬‬ ‫‪2,326,594,312‬‬ ‫اإلسكان**‬ ‫‪3,304,314,497‬‬ ‫‪2,697,787,566‬‬ ‫القطاعات االجتماعية ‪ -‬إجمالي حجم األضرار‬ ‫القطاعات المشتركة‬ ‫‪269,039,360‬‬ ‫‪167,649,813‬‬ ‫البيئة**‬ ‫‪8,496,565‬‬ ‫‪6,951,735‬‬ ‫المؤسسات العامة‬ ‫‪277,535,925‬‬ ‫‪174,601,548‬‬ ‫القطاعات المشتركة ‪ -‬إجمالي حجم األضرار‬ ‫‪11,327,061,324‬‬ ‫‪8,692,688,367‬‬ ‫اإلجمالي‬ ‫*يتم تفسير االنحراف بأكثر من ‪ 20%‬في التقديرات المنخفضة والمرتفعة بالنسبة إلى القيمة المتوسطة لقطاعات الكهرباء والنقل والتراث‬ ‫الثقافي والمياه والصرف الصحي والنظافة الصحية والتعليم من خالل النطاق األوسع لتقديرات ت�كلفة الوحدة المنخفضة والمرتفعة‪.‬‬ ‫**بالنسبة لقطاعي البيئة واإلسكان‪ ،‬يفسر االنحراف بعدد الوحدات السكنية التي تعرضت ألضرار جزئية في ظل السيناري�و المنخفض والسيناري�و‬ ‫ا إلى تلك التي تعرضت ألضرار جزئية في ظل سيناري�و التقدير‬‫المرتفع‪ .‬ويتراوح مدى الضرر من نسبة تبلغ ‪ 2:1‬للوحدات السكنية المدمرة كلي ً‬ ‫المنخفض إلى نسبة ‪ 6:1‬في ظل السيناري�و المرتفع‪ .‬تقديرات ت�كلفة الوحدة متطابقة لسيناري�وهات الضرر المنخفض والمرتفع‪.‬‬ ‫المصدر‪ :‬تقديرات خبراء البنك الدولي‪.‬‬ ‫‪ 12‬التقديرات المنخفضة والمرتفعة لألضرار في قطاع الزراعة متشابهة ألن تقديرات األضرار التي لحقت بأنظمة الري تظل ثابتة سواء‬ ‫ا للقطاع الرئيسي‪ ،‬وتستند إلى التقديرات المتاحة للجمهور والتي قدمتها منظمة األغذية والزراعة‬ ‫كان التقدير منخفض ً‬ ‫ا أو مرتفع ً‬ ‫لألمم المتحدة وأقرت بها الحكومة السورية‪.‬‬ ‫التقي�يم المشترك لحجم األضرار في مدن سورية مختارة ‪27‬‬ ‫األضرار حسب المدينة‬ ‫في ‪ 11‬من أصل ‪ 14‬مدينة ألن مثل هذه التغيرات تغير‬ ‫يكشف تحليل حجم األضرار في المدن أن مدينة حلب‬ ‫بدورها قيمة خدمات النظم اإليكولوجية‪ .‬وباإلضافة‬ ‫تعرضت للقدر األكبر من الضرر‪ ،‬تليها مدن إدلب وحمص‬ ‫إلى األضرار الكبيرة التي لحقت بالبنية التحتية المادية‪،‬‬ ‫كز القدر األكبر من الضرر المقدر المرتفع‬ ‫وتر َ‬ ‫َ‬ ‫والرقة‪.‬‬ ‫فقد ت�كبد قطاع الزراعة خسائر كبيرة في المحاصيل‬ ‫في حلب في قطاعات الكهرباء والصحة والنقل‪ .‬أما‬ ‫والثروة الحيوانية نتيجة للصراع‪.‬‬ ‫في مدينة إدلب‪ ،‬فقد تركز الضرر في قطاعات الكهرباء‬ ‫واإلسكان‪ .‬وفي مدينة حمص‪ ،‬ت�كبدت قطاعات اإلسكان‬ ‫أدى الصراع والنزوح وانهيار األنشطة االقتصادية‬ ‫ا في الرقة‪،‬‬ ‫والصحة القدر األكبر من الضرر‪ .‬وأخير ً‬ ‫والخدمات االجتماعية إلى تدهور األوضاع المعيشية‬ ‫كانت قطاعات اإلسكان والمياه والصرف الصحي هي‬ ‫للسوري�ين‪ .‬ويعكس مؤشر الحرمان المركب‪ ،‬الذي يستند‬ ‫القطاعات األكثر تضرر ً‬ ‫ا (الشكل ‪ 5‬والجدول ‪.)2‬‬ ‫إلى تقي�يمات األضرار وتقي�يمات القدرة التشغيلية‬ ‫مختلف القطاعات‪ ،‬مستوى توفر الخدمات العامة‬ ‫ا شامالً‬ ‫على الرغم من أن هذا التقي�يم ال يضع تقدير ً‬ ‫األساسية في مختلف المدن‪ 13.‬وتعاني مدن داريا‬ ‫لحجم الخسائر االقتصادية الناجمة عن الصراع‪ ،‬إال أنه‬ ‫والرقة وتدمر من الحرمان أكثر من غيرها من المدن‪.‬‬ ‫جرى أخذها بعين االعتبار عند حساب خسائر وأضرار‬ ‫وتعاني مدن تدمر والرستن على التوالي‪ ،‬وكلتاهما‬ ‫قطاعي الزراعة والبيئة‪ .‬وقد تم تقدير هذه الخسائر‬ ‫في محافظة حمص‪ ،‬من أعلى معدالت الحرمان من رأس‬ ‫بسبب أهمية قطاع الزراعة بالنسبة السكان‪ ،‬وحقيقة‬ ‫المال البشري ومستويات المعيشة‪ .‬تباينت مؤشرات‬ ‫أن قدرة المزارعين على مواجهة الصدمات هي أقل‬ ‫المدن بشكل كبير من حيث الحرمان من رأس المال‬ ‫من قدرة غيرهم‪ ،‬وكذلك ألن هذا القطاع يت�كبد عادة‬ ‫البشري ومستويات المعيشة‪ ،‬ال سيما مدن تدمر وإدلب‬ ‫خسائر مالية أكثر من أضرار مادية ملموسة‪ .‬عالوة‬ ‫والرستن وعفري�ن‪ .‬في المقابل‪ ،‬حلت مدن حلب وداريا‬ ‫على ذلك‪ ،‬أخذ التقي�يم في االعتبار الخسائر في صافي‬ ‫وتل أبيض في مرتبة مماثلة على هذه المؤشرات‪.‬‬ ‫التغير في الغطاء األرضي (أي الغطاء األخضر مثل‬ ‫العشب‪ /‬الشجيرات‪ /‬مناطق الغطاء النباتي المتناثر)‬ ‫الشكل ‪ :5‬حجم األضرار في المدن (بالمليون دوالر)‬ ‫‪3500‬‬ ‫‪3177‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ اﻟﻀﺮر اﻟﻤﻘﺪر ﺣﺴﺐ اﻟﻤﺪﻳﻨﺔ )‪(٪‬‬ ‫ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮات اﻷﺿﺮار ﻓﻲ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ اﻟﻤﺪن‬ ‫‪3000‬‬ ‫‪0.55‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫ﺑﻤﻼﻳﻴﻦ اﻟﺪوﻻرات اﻷﻣﺮﻳﻜﻴﺔ‬ ‫‪2500‬‬ ‫‪2259‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪2000‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬ ‫‪1500‬‬ ‫‪964‬‬ ‫‪0.2‬‬ ‫‪1000‬‬ ‫‪0.15‬‬ ‫‪522‬‬ ‫‪0.08 421‬‬ ‫‪416‬‬ ‫‪316‬‬ ‫‪255‬‬ ‫‪0.1‬‬ ‫‪500‬‬ ‫‪0.07‬‬ ‫‪0.05‬‬ ‫‪115‬‬ ‫‪0.04‬‬ ‫‪89‬‬ ‫‪58‬‬ ‫‪83‬‬ ‫‪330‬‬ ‫‪271‬‬ ‫‪213‬‬ ‫‪171‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0.02‬‬ ‫‪0.01‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫ﺣﻠﺐ‬ ‫إدﻟﺐ‬ ‫ﺣﻤﺺ‬ ‫اﻟﺮﻗﺔ‬ ‫دﻳﺮ اﻟﺰور‬ ‫درﻋﺎ‬ ‫دارﻳﺎ‬ ‫ﺗﺪﻣﺮ‬ ‫ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﺾ ‪ -‬ﺑﻤﻼﻳﻴﻦ اﻟﺪوﻻرات‬ ‫ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﻣﺮﺗﻔﻊ ‪ -‬ﺑﻤﻼﻳﻴﻦ اﻟﺪوﻻرات‬ ‫ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ اﻟﻀﺮر اﻟﻤﻘﺪر‬ ‫‪ 13‬يعتمد المؤشر على مقاي�يس رأس المال البشري (الصحة والتعليم) ومستويات المعيشة (المياه والصرف الصحي والخدمات البلدية‬ ‫الضرر الذي لحق بـ «القطاعات‬ ‫َ‬ ‫واإلسكان)‪ .‬باإلضافة إلى ذلك‪ ،‬ت�أخذ مؤشرات رأس المال البشري ومستويات المعيشة في االعتبار‬ ‫الداعمة» وقدرتها التشغيلية‪ ،‬والتي تشمل المؤسسات العامة والنقل والكهرباء‪.‬‬ ‫‪ 28‬ملخص تنفيذي‬ ‫الجدول ‪ :2‬األضرار حسب المدينة‪( 14‬بالدوالر)‬ ‫تقدير مرتفع‬ ‫تقدير منخفض‬ ‫المدينة‬ ‫‪23,906,768‬‬ ‫‪18,330,747‬‬ ‫عفري�ن‬ ‫‪3,177,457,695‬‬ ‫‪2,258,615,406‬‬ ‫حلب‬ ‫‪254,787,982‬‬ ‫‪171,091,865‬‬ ‫درعا‬ ‫‪115,402,733‬‬ ‫‪88,936,166‬‬ ‫داريا‬ ‫‪316,471,224‬‬ ‫‪213,428,481‬‬ ‫دير الزور‬ ‫‪41,356,906‬‬ ‫‪30,366,797‬‬ ‫الحسكة‬ ‫‪421,496,453‬‬ ‫‪329,978,730‬‬ ‫حمص‬ ‫‪963,807,711‬‬ ‫‪521,971,093‬‬ ‫إدلب‬ ‫‪13,342,764‬‬ ‫‪9,185,416‬‬ ‫منبج‬ ‫‪83,369,610‬‬ ‫‪58,216,031‬‬ ‫تدمر‬ ‫‪416,436,546‬‬ ‫‪270,842,972‬‬ ‫الرقة‬ ‫‪27,471,625‬‬ ‫‪21,362,766‬‬ ‫الرستن‬ ‫‪27,372,497‬‬ ‫‪22,286,018‬‬ ‫تل أبيض‬ ‫‪5,021,641‬‬ ‫‪3,639,713‬‬ ‫الزبداني‬ ‫‪5,887,702,153‬‬ ‫‪4,018,252,201‬‬ ‫اإلجمالي‬ ‫نطاق التقي�يم‬ ‫البيانات على مستوى األحياء بينما بالنسبة لبقية‬ ‫النطاق الزمني‪ :‬اندلع الصراع في سوريا عام ‪2011‬‬ ‫المحافظة‪ ،‬يتم تصنيف البيانات على مستوى المناطق‪.‬‬ ‫ولذلك‪ ،‬جرى احتساب وتقدير حجم الضرر من خالل‬ ‫المقارنة مع خط أساس فعلي أو مقدر لما كان الوضع‬ ‫ا‪:‬‬ ‫عليه قبل عام ‪ 2011‬لألصول المادية‪ ،‬والذي تم تحديده‬ ‫النطاق القطاعي‪ :‬شمل التقي�يم ‪ 11‬قطاع ً‬ ‫ا رئيسي ً‬ ‫‪15‬‬ ‫في تقي�يم ديسمبر‪/‬كانون األول ‪.2014‬‬ ‫ قطاعات البنية التحتية المادية‪ :‬النقل والكهرباء‬ ‫وإمدادات المياه والصرف الصحي والخدمات البلدية‬ ‫النطاق الجغرافي‪ :‬شمل التقي�يم المدن الـ ‪ 14‬التالية‪:‬‬ ‫والتراث الثقافي وسالسل القيمة الغذائية الزراعية‪.‬‬ ‫عفري�ن وحلب ودرعا وداريا ودير الزور والحسكة وحمص‬ ‫ القطاعات االجتماعية‪ :‬اإلسكان والصحة والتعليم‪.‬‬ ‫وإدلب ومنبج وتدمر والرقة والرستن وتل أبيض‬ ‫ القطاعات المشتركة‪ :‬البيئة والمؤسسات العامة‪.‬‬ ‫والزبداني‪ .‬وضمن هذه المدن الرئيسية‪ ،‬تم تصنيف‬ ‫منهجية التقي�يم‬ ‫على منهجية تنفيذ عن بعد لجمع البيانات والخروج‬ ‫ا عام ً‬ ‫ا لألثر الذي خلفه‬ ‫يقدم تقي�يم األضرار هذا تقدير ً‬ ‫بالتقديرات‪ ،‬واستخدم صور أقمار صناعية عالية الدقة‪،‬‬ ‫الصراع الجاري في سوريا على األصول المادية‬ ‫وتحليالت للمنشورات على وسائل التواصل االجتماعي‪،‬‬ ‫وتقديم الخدمات‪ .‬واعتمد التقي�يم في المقام األول‬ ‫‪ 14‬أسباب التباين بين األضرار على مستوى المدن وبين إجمالي األضرار حسب القطاع‪:‬‬ ‫*ألنه يست�ثني األضرار التي لحقت بالقطاع الزراعي والتي وقعت في الغالب في المناطق الريفية‪ ،‬وبالتالي‪ ،‬لم يتم إجراء تحليالت‬ ‫على مستوى المناطق من قبل المتخصصين في القطاع‬ ‫*في قطاع البيئة ‪ -‬بالنسبة للنفايات الطبية اإللكترونية‪ ،‬تجدر اإلشارة إلى أن العدد اإلجمالي للمرافق على مستوى المدن والتي‬ ‫تعرضت ألضرار جزئية أو تدمرت بالكامل هو أقل من إجمالي عدد المرافق على المستوى الوطني‪ ،‬وهذا هو السبب الذي يفسر‬ ‫االختالف بين إجمالي معدالت توليد النفايات اإللكترونية عند هذه المستويات‬ ‫*في قطاع النقل‪ ،‬ال يمكن تفصيل الت�كاليف التي ت�كبدتها الموانئ والسكك الحديدية والمطارات على مستوى المدن‪ ،‬لذا فإن هذا‬ ‫الجدول ال يشمل هذه الت�كاليف‬ ‫*باست�ثناء حساب أضرار المدن الميتة من قطاع التراث الثقافي‬ ‫‪ 15‬كما تم إجراء التقي�يم من خالل الرجوع إلى التقديرات الواردة في تقي�يم عام ‪ 2018‬للمدن نفسها التي شملها التقي�يم السابق‪.‬‬ ‫التقي�يم المشترك لحجم األضرار في مدن سورية مختارة ‪29‬‬ ‫‪Photo credit: World Bank‬‬ ‫ا)‪ .‬ولتقدير حجم الضرر‪ ،‬تم حساب‬ ‫يكون الضرر بنيوي ً‬ ‫واستخراج البيانات‪ ،‬وكذلك على المعلومات المتاحة‬ ‫بناء على عدد المنشآت المتضررة‪ ،‬وحالتها‬ ‫ً‬ ‫المتوسط‬ ‫للجمهور‪ 16.‬وفي الوقت نفسه‪ ،‬ولت�أكيد االستنتاجات‬ ‫ا أو مدمرة كلي ً‬ ‫ا)‪ ،‬وت�كلفة الوحدة‬ ‫المادية (متضررة جزئي ً‬ ‫التي تم استخالصها‪ ،‬استخدم في التقي�يم بيانات حول‬ ‫المقدرة قبل األزمة المرتبطة بكل فئة من فئات‬ ‫األضرار جرى أخذها من تقي�يمات نفذت على األرض‬ ‫ا‪ ،‬وكلما كان ذلك‬ ‫األصول‪ .‬كما استهدف التقي�يم أيض ً‬ ‫وكانت متاحة للجمهور‪.‬‬ ‫ا‪ ،‬تقي�يم الحالة التشغيلية للمرافق (تعمل أو ال‬ ‫ممكن ً‬ ‫تعمل) لتحديد مستوى وجودة تقديم الخدمات في‬ ‫ا إلى مستوى الضرر المحدد‪ ،‬جرى وضع كل‬ ‫استناد ً‬ ‫ٍ‬ ‫جزء منه على‬ ‫مختلف القطاعات‪ .‬وقام التقي�يم في‬ ‫أصل من األصول تحت تصنيف من ثالث تصنيفات تحدد‬ ‫منهجية تقي�يم االحتياجات بعد وقوع الكوارث التي تم‬ ‫حالة ذلك األصل من حيث تعرضه أو عدم تعرضه للضرر‬ ‫وضعها بشكل مشترك من قبل االتحاد األوروبي والبنك‬ ‫ا (عندما‬ ‫على النحو التالي‪ :‬غير متضرر‪ ،‬أو متضرر جزئي ً‬ ‫الدولي واألمم المتحدة‪ ،‬وتم استخدامها في العديد‬ ‫ا)‪ ،‬أو مدمر بالكامل‬ ‫يكون أقل من ‪ 40%‬من األصل متضرر ً‬ ‫من التقي�يمات التحليلية حول العالم‪, .‬‬ ‫‪18 17‬‬ ‫ا أو عندما‬ ‫متضرر‬ ‫األصل‬ ‫(عندما يكون أكثر من ‪ 40%‬من‬ ‫ً‬ ‫ملخصات تقاري�ر القطاعات‬ ‫‪ .1‬أثر الصراع على االقتصاد الكلي‬ ‫ا لألضرار الجسيمة التي‬ ‫قطاع الهيدروكربونات نظر ً‬ ‫خلف الصراع في سوريا آثار ً‬ ‫ا اقتصادية كبيرة ومتزايدة‪.‬‬ ‫لحقت بالبنية التحتية لهذا القطاع‪ .‬كما تراجعت التجارة‬ ‫فبحلول عام ‪ ،2019‬كان إجمالي الناتج المحلي‬ ‫الخارجية للبالد بشكل حاد‪ ،‬ال سيما الصادرات‪ ،‬بسبب‬ ‫للبالد قد تقلص بأكثر من النصف مقارنة بمستواه‬ ‫االضطرابات المرتبطة بالصراع والعقوبات الدولية‪ .‬وأدى‬ ‫المسجل عام ‪ .2010‬فلقد تقلص النشاط االقتصادي‬ ‫العجز التجاري المستمر إلى تراجع احتياطيات البالد من‬ ‫في جميع القطاعات‪ ،‬ولكنه تقلص بشكل مدمر في‬ ‫‪ 16‬تشمل مصادر المعلومات العامة هذه االتحاد األوروبي‪ ،‬ومجموعة البيانات الزراعية والبيانات الجغرافية المكانية التابعة لمركز‬ ‫األبحاث المشترك‪.‬‬ ‫‪ 17‬االتحاد األوروبي‪ ،‬البنك الدولي‪ ،‬األمم المتحدة‪ .‬تقي�يمات االحتياجات بعد وقوع الكوارث‪ ،‬تعليمات المجلد «أ» (‪https://www.< .)2013‬‬ ‫‪.>gfdrr.org/sites/default/files/publication/pdna-guidelines-vol-a.pdf‬‬ ‫‪ 18‬تقوم منهجية تقي�يم االحتياجات بعد وقوع الكوارث على تقي�يم األضرار والخسائر (‪ )DaLA‬ومنهجية تقي�يم احتياجات التعافي البشري‬ ‫(‪.)HRNA‬‬ ‫‪ 30‬ملخص تنفيذي‬ ‫ومزمن‪ .‬وبشكل عام‪ ،‬أثر الصراع بشدة على االقتصاد‬ ‫العمالت الصعبة وانخفاض قيمة العملة وإلى حالة من‬ ‫السوري نتيجة تدمير رأس المال والخسائر البشرية‬ ‫التضخم المفرط‪ .‬ونجم عن كل هذه الظروف انخفاض‬ ‫والهجرة القسرية واختالل النظام االقتصادي للبالد‪.‬‬ ‫كبير في اإليرادات المالية‪ ،‬كما أدت إلى عجز مالي كبير‬ ‫‪ .2‬أثر الصراع على الفقر واألحوال المعيشية‬ ‫والتي تشمل المؤسسات العامة والنقل والكهرباء‪.‬‬ ‫كانت آثار الصراع واسعة وجلية في مختلف القطاعات‬ ‫وفي المتوسط‪ ،‬تبين أن مدن داريا والرقة وتدمر تعاني‬ ‫ا بمستويات معيشة األسر‪.‬‬ ‫والمناطق‪ ،‬وأضرت كثير ً‬ ‫من أعلى معدالت الحرمان النسبي‪ .‬وت�أتي مدينة تدمر‬ ‫فقد كان لتدمير األصول وتراجع قدرتها التشغيلية‬ ‫بمحافظة حمص في المرتبة األولى من حيث الحرمان‬ ‫ت�أثير مباشر على المستويات المعيشية لألسر وتقديم‬ ‫من رأس المال البشري‪ ،‬بينما ت�أتي مدينة الرستن‬ ‫وبناء على تقي�يم الضرر‪ ،‬جرى تصنيف‬ ‫ً‬ ‫الخدمات الرئيسية‪.‬‬ ‫بمحافظة حمص في المرتبة األولى من حيث الحرمان‬ ‫ا لمؤشر الحرمان المركب للضرر والقدرة‬ ‫المدن وفق ً‬ ‫من مستوى المعيشة‪ .‬وكما هو مفصل في التقري�ر‪،‬‬ ‫التشغيلية لألصول في مختلف القطاعات‪ .‬وقد تم‬ ‫كان للنزاع آثار متباينة بين مختلف القطاعات داخل‬ ‫النظر في فئ�تين عريضتين لتقي�يم الحالة المعيشية‪:‬‬ ‫المدن‪ .‬فتحتل مدن مثل تدمر وإدلب والرستن وعفري�ن‬ ‫رأس المال البشري (الصحة والتعليم) ومستويات‬ ‫مرتبة مختلفة من حيث موقعها على مؤشرات رأس‬ ‫المعيشة (المياه والصرف الصحي‪ ،‬والخدمات البلدية‪،‬‬ ‫المال البشري ومستويات المعيشة‪ ،‬بينما تقع مدن‬ ‫واإلسكان)‪19.‬باإلضافة إلى ذلك‪ ،‬ت�أخذ مؤشرات رأس‬ ‫أخرى‪ ،‬مثل حلب وداريا وتل أبيض‪ ،‬في المرتبة نفسها‬ ‫المال البشري ومستويات المعيشة في االعتبار الضرر‬ ‫على هذين المؤشري�ن‪.‬‬ ‫الذي لحق بـ «القطاعات الداعمة» وقدرتها التشغيلية‪،‬‬ ‫‪ .3‬النقل‬ ‫مساكنهم في عام ‪ ،2021‬ولم يكن حوالي ‪550,000‬‬ ‫ت�تراوح التقديرات اإلجمالية لألضرار التي لحقت بقطاع‬ ‫شخص‪ ،‬أو ما نسبته ‪ 11%‬من السكان‪ ،‬قادري�ن على‬ ‫النقل من ‪ 1.2‬إلى ‪ 1.7‬مليار دوالر‪ .‬فقد تعرض ما يقرب‬ ‫الوصول إلى مرفق من مرافق الرعاية الصحية خالل ‪30‬‬ ‫من ‪ 11%‬من إجمالي طول الطرق الدولية السريعة‬ ‫دقيقة‪ .‬وبالمثل‪ ،‬يضطر أكثر من ‪ 900‬ألف شخص‪ ،‬أو ما‬ ‫والطرق السريعة الداخلية والشوارع الرئيسية والثانوية‬ ‫نسبته ‪ 18%‬من السكان‪ ،‬إلى التنقل بالسيارة ألكثر من‬ ‫والجسور في ‪ 14‬مدينة ألضرار‪ ،‬حيث وقع ما نسبته‬ ‫‪ 10‬دقائق للوصول إلى المرافق التعليمية‪ ،‬وهو حد‬ ‫‪ 85%‬من مجمل األضرار في الطرق الرئيسية والثانوية‪.‬‬ ‫طبيعي من حيث بعد المسافة عن المرافق التعليمية‪.‬‬ ‫وت�تفاوت نسبة الطرق المتضررة بشكل كبير بين المدن‪،‬‬ ‫ولكن في المقابل‪ ،‬ال يستطيع أكثر من ‪ 100‬ألف شخص‪،‬‬ ‫من ‪ 1.4%‬من الطرق الدولية السريعة والطرق السريعة‬ ‫أو ما نسبته ‪ 2%‬من السكان‪ ،‬الوصول إلى المرافق‬ ‫الداخلية والشوارع الرئيسية والثانوية في حلب‪ ،‬إلى‬ ‫التعليمية في مناطقهم‪ .‬وت�تراوح القيمة المالية‬ ‫‪ 63%‬في عفري�ن‪ ،‬و‪ 28%‬في الرقة‪ ،‬و‪ 23%‬في إدلب‪.‬‬ ‫لألضرار التي لحقت بالطرق ضمن قطاع النقل في الـ ‪14‬‬ ‫ولوحظ أن ما نسبته ‪ 65%‬في إجمالي األضرار التي لحقت‬ ‫مدينة التي شملها التقي�يم من ‪ 127.4‬إلى ‪ 169.9‬مليون‬ ‫بالطرق والشوارع الرئيسية والجسور كان في ثالث مدن‬ ‫دوالر‪ .‬وال ت�توفر بيانات عن قطاع السكك الحديدية‬ ‫(الرقة وإدلب وحمص) من بين جميع المدن الـ ‪ 14‬التي‬ ‫باست�ثناء منشور صادر عن وزارة النقل السورية لعام‬ ‫شملها التقي�يم‪ .‬فقد استحوذت الرقة وحدها على ‪42%‬‬ ‫‪ 2018‬والذي قدر األضرار بحوالي ‪ 1.5‬مليار دوالر‪ ،‬بما‬ ‫من إجمالي األضرار التي لحقت بالطرق والجسور في‬ ‫في ذلك األضرار التي لحقت بالمعدات‪ .‬وأثرت األضرار‬ ‫المدن التي شملها التقي�يم‪ .‬وفي المدن الـ ‪ 14‬التي‬ ‫ا على شبكات النقل بين المناطق‬ ‫في هذا القطاع أيض ً‬ ‫شملها التقي�يم‪ ،‬لم يكن حوالي ‪ 1,150,000‬شخص‪ ،‬أو‬ ‫الحضرية والمناطق الريفية وعلى نقل الركاب والبضائع‪.‬‬ ‫ما نسبته ‪ 23%‬من السكان‪ ،‬قادري�ن على الوصول إلى‬ ‫مرفق من مرافق الرعاية الصحية خالل ‪ 20‬دقيقة من‬ ‫‪ 19‬لم يكن من الممكن تضمين سبل كسب العيش في تقي�يم األحوال المعيشية بسبب نقص البيانات لقطاعي الزراعة والصناعة‪.‬‬ ‫التقي�يم المشترك لحجم األضرار في مدن سورية مختارة ‪31‬‬ ‫‪ .4‬الكهرباء‬ ‫من إمدادات الكهرباء في البالد‪ ،‬إلى درجة معينة من‬ ‫ا تراوحت قيمتها بين ‪804.2‬‬ ‫ت�كبد قطاع الكهرباء أضرار ً‬ ‫الضرر بينما تعرضت ‪ 9‬من أصل ‪ 49‬محطة فرعية ألضرار‪.‬‬ ‫مليون دوالر و‪ 1,621.6‬مليون دوالر في ‪ 14‬مدينة‪،‬‬ ‫وبالنتيجة‪ ،‬ت�أثرت إمدادات الطاقة بشدة بشكل باتت‬ ‫كان أغلبها في حلب وإدلب‪ ،‬حيث تضررت البنية التحتية‬ ‫معه االنقطاعات المتواصلة في التيار الكهربائي أمر ً‬ ‫ا‬ ‫الكهربائية في حلب بنسبة ‪ 28%‬في حين بلغت نسبة‬ ‫تبذل‬ ‫ا في الكثير من المدن‪ .‬وفي الوقت الذي ُ‬ ‫مت�كرر ً‬ ‫الضرر في إدلب نحو ‪ .60%‬وتعرض ما يقرب من ‪6.5%‬‬ ‫فيه جهود إلعادة بناء القطاع‪ ،‬ال تزال هناك العديد من‬ ‫من المرافق إلى درجة معينة من الضرر‪ ،‬في حين أن ما‬ ‫التحديات دون حل‪ ،‬بما في ذلك عدم كفاية االست�ثمارات‪،‬‬ ‫يقرب من ‪ 6%‬من المرافق قد دمرت بالكامل‪ .‬وتعرضت‬ ‫وانقطاع التيار الكهربائي‪ ،‬وسرقة الكهرباء‪ ،‬وقلة‬ ‫ثالث من أصل ‪ 14‬محطة طاقة شملها التقي�يم (وهي‬ ‫الوقود الالزم لتشغيل المحطات الحرارية‪.‬‬ ‫أغلى األصول في القطاع)‪ ،‬والتي توفر أكثر من ‪20%‬‬ ‫‪ .5‬إمدادات المياه وخدمات الصرف الصحي‬ ‫ا‪ .‬فقد أدت األزمة‬ ‫كبيرة بالنسبة للمدن األكثر تضرر ً‬ ‫تقدر قيمة األضرار التي لحقت بشبكات إمدادات المياه‬ ‫ا إلى تقويض عمليات الصيانة‬ ‫المستمرة منذ ‪ 11‬عام ً‬ ‫والبنية التحتية للصرف الصحي في ‪ 14‬مدينة من ‪124.9‬‬ ‫ا مالية أثرت بشكل كبير‬ ‫ونقص األصول وخلقت قيود ً‬ ‫مليون دوالر إلى ‪ 379.7‬مليون دوالر‪ .‬وتضررت البنية‬ ‫على خدمات المياه والصرف الصحي والنظافة الصحية‪.‬‬ ‫التحتية المادية الرئيسية لقطاع المياه خالل الصراع‪،‬‬ ‫وفي الوقت نفسه‪ ،‬انتشر البدالء من مقدمي الخدمات‬ ‫إذ تضرر حوالي ‪ 17%‬من األصول‪ ،‬كانت في الغالب آبار ً‬ ‫ا‬ ‫الذين يقومون بتوفير المياه المنقولة بالصهاري�ج‬ ‫ا‪ /‬خزانات مياه‪ ،‬ال سيما في حلب وإدلب‪ .‬وعلى‬ ‫وأبراج ً‬ ‫وبت�كلفة عالية (حوالي ‪ 7‬دوالرات لكل متر مكعب) ودون‬ ‫الرغم من أن معظم البنية التحتية المادية المتبقية‬ ‫أي ضوابط بشأن مصدر المياه ونوعيتها‪.‬‬ ‫لم ت�تضرر‪ ،‬إال أن القدرة التشغيلية لحوالي ‪ 51%‬منها‬ ‫ا‪ ،‬وهي مشكلة‬ ‫تراجعت‪ ،‬بما في ذلك ‪ 11%‬ال تعمل كلي ً‬ ‫‪ .6‬سالسل القيمة الزراعية الغذائية‬ ‫الري‪ ،‬وقلة مدخالت اإلنتاج‪ ،‬والقيود األمنية‪ ،‬والتقلبات‬ ‫أسفرت الحرب السورية عن أضرار تقدر قيمتها بنحو ‪3.4‬‬ ‫المناخية إلى خسائر في اإلنتاج الزراعي من المحاصيل‬ ‫مليارات دوالر‪ 20‬في الصوامع والبنية التحتية واألصول‬ ‫السنوية والدائمة‪ ،‬والثروة الحيوانية‪ ،‬وترب�ية األحياء‬ ‫الزراعية‪ ،‬بما في ذلك شبكات الري وأسواق الجملة‬ ‫المائية خالل العقد الماضي (كان اإلنتاج من المحاصيل‬ ‫في المناطق التي شملها التقي�يم‪ .‬باإلضافة إلى هذه‬ ‫الزراعية هو األكثر تضرر ً‬ ‫ا)‪.‬‬ ‫األضرار‪ ،‬أدى نقص إمدادات المياه المستخدمة في‬ ‫‪ .7‬اإلسكان‬ ‫ألف وحدة سكنية بسبب الصراع‪ ،‬أي ما يعادل حوالي‬ ‫يتراوح إجمالي األضرار المقدرة التي ت�كبدها قطاع‬ ‫‪ 21%‬من المنازل في المدينة وما يعادل ‪ 70%‬من‬ ‫اإلسكان في ‪ 14‬مدينة شملها التقي�يم من ‪ 2.3‬إلى ‪2.8‬‬ ‫المساكن المتضررة في ‪ 14‬مدينة‪ .‬كما ت�أثرت المناطق‬ ‫مليار دوالر‪ .‬وتشير التقديرات إلى أن الصراع قد أثر على‬ ‫السكنية غير الرسمية أكثر من غيرها بالصراع‪ ،‬مما أدى‬ ‫ما يصل إلى ‪ 210‬ألف وحدة سكنية‪ ،‬حيث تعرض ما يقرب‬ ‫إلى تفاقم الظروف المعيشية فيها‪.‬‬ ‫من ‪ 30‬ألف وحدة منها إلى تدمير كامل في حين عانت‬ ‫‪ 180‬ألف وحدة من أضرار‪ .‬وخسرت حلب ما يقدر بنحو ‪135‬‬ ‫األثر على النطاق الوطني؛ (‪)2‬‬ ‫َ‬ ‫‪ )1( 20‬توفر البيانات ذات الصلة بالمناطق الحضرية تقديرات للمدن المختارة‪ ،‬بينما توفر التقديرات الريفية‬ ‫كان ألضرار شبكة الري آثار أثر غير مباشرة على اإلنتاج الزراعي خارج منطقة األضرار؛ (‪ )3‬من الصعب فصل األضرار في اإلنتاج الزراعي‬ ‫تعزى إلى الصراع عن األضرار الناجمة عن تغير المناخ أو التقلبات الطبيعية‪.‬‬‫التي ُ‬ ‫‪ 32‬ملخص تنفيذي‬ ‫‪ .8‬التراث الثقافي‬ ‫العالمي المؤقتة‪ .‬لقد ت�أثر التراث الثقافي ككل بشدة‬ ‫ت�تراوح قيمة األضرار المقدرة التي ت�كبدتها المواقع‬ ‫جراء األزمة‪ .‬وقد تضمن هذا التقي�يم بيانات جزئية عن‬ ‫الثقافية والتراثية من ‪ 303.7‬إلى ‪ 520.6‬مليون دوالر‪.‬‬ ‫المساجد والكنائس واألديرة واألضرحة والمتاحف‬ ‫تضم سوريا مجموعة من أهم وأكثر مواقع التراث‬ ‫والمحفوظات والمباني التراثية والمواقع األثرية‬ ‫ا في منطقة البحر األبيض‬ ‫الثقافي العالمي تنوع ً‬ ‫والمدن الميتة‪ .‬وشمل التقي�يم دراسات عميقة عن‬ ‫المتوسط‪ ،‬حيث كانت مهد ً‬ ‫ا للتراث المادي وغير المادي‬ ‫حلب وتدمر والمدن الميتة بسبب ارتفاع مستويات‬ ‫على مدى آالف السنين‪ .‬وي�وجد في سوريا ستة مواقع‬ ‫األضرار فيها‪ .‬وي�رد إي�جاز عن المساكن التاريخية والتراثية‬ ‫للتراث العالمي‪ ،21‬وكلها مدرجة في قائمة التراث‬ ‫في قسم قطاع اإلسكان‪.‬‬ ‫العالمي المعرض للخطر‪ ،‬و‪ 11‬موقع ً‬ ‫ا على قائمة التراث‬ ‫‪ .9‬الصحة‬ ‫تعطلت ‪ 7‬من أصل ‪ 8‬مرافق‪ .‬ومن حيث نسبة الضرر‪ ،‬كانت‬ ‫يتراوح إجمالي األضرار المقدرة التي ت�كبدها قطاع‬ ‫ا‪ ،‬حيث تعرضت ‪ 32‬منشأة‬ ‫دير الزور ثاني أكثر المدن تضرر ً‬ ‫الصحة في ‪ 14‬مدينة شملها التقي�يم من ‪ 345.9‬إلى‬ ‫ا‪ ،‬بينما كانت تدمر‬ ‫من أصل ‪ 43‬ألضرار جزئية أو تدمرت كلي ً‬ ‫‪ 422.8‬مليون دوالر‪ .‬وتعرض حوالي ‪ 28%‬من المرافق‬ ‫هي األكبر من ناحية المرافق التي تعرضت لتدمير كلي‬ ‫إلى أضرار جزئية في حين يقدر أن ‪ % 8%‬من المرافق‬ ‫(‪ 1‬من ‪ .)4‬في الـ ‪ 14‬مدينة التي شملها التقي�يم‪ ،‬ال يزال‬ ‫الصحية قد تدمرت بالكامل‪ .‬وتعرضت مدينة تدمر ألكبر‬ ‫يعمل ‪ 62%‬فقط من المرافق الصحية‪.‬‬ ‫قدر من الضرر‪ ،‬حيث تم اإلبالغ عن تضرر ‪ 3‬من أصل ‪ 4‬مرافق‬ ‫صحية‪ ،‬بينما خسرت داريا معظم مرافقها الصحية‪ ،‬حيث‬ ‫‪ 10‬التعليم‬ ‫وفي الوقت الذي لم يتعرض فيه الكثير من المرافق‬ ‫ت�تراوح قيمة إجمالي األضرار المقدرة التي ت�كبدها‬ ‫التعليمية إلى أي أضرار أو تم إصالحها‪ ،‬تظل القدرة‬ ‫قطاع التعليم من ‪ 25.3‬إلى ‪ 37.9‬مليون دوالر في المدن‬ ‫على الوصول إليها صعبة بشكل كبير‪ .‬تشمل العوائق‬ ‫الـ ‪ 14‬التي شملها التقي�يم‪ .‬وتعرض حوالي ‪ 13%‬من‬ ‫الرئيسية التي تحول دون الوصول إلى المرافق‬ ‫المرافق التعليمية إلى أضرار جزئية في حين يقدر أن‬ ‫التعليمية ما يلي‪ )1( :‬انعدام األمن عند الذهاب إلى‬ ‫‪ 5%‬من المرافق قد تدمرت بالكامل‪ .‬وت�كبدت تدمر القدر‬ ‫المدرسة والعودة منها؛ (‪ )2‬الخوف من التعرض‬ ‫األكبر من الضرر‪ ،‬إذا تبين من خالل التقي�يم أن ما نسبته‬ ‫لالستهداف في أثناء التواجد في المدرسة؛ (‪ )3‬نقص‬ ‫‪ 87%‬من المرافق التعليمية في المدينة قد تضررت‬ ‫المعلمين وعدم توفر مواد التدريس والتعلم؛ (‪)4‬‬ ‫وأنها ال تعمل‪ .‬وكانت الرقة ثاني أكثر المدن تضرر ً‬ ‫ا‪ ،‬حيث‬ ‫إبعاد األطفال والشباب عن التعليم وانشغالهم في‬ ‫تضررت ‪ 57%‬من المرافق بشكل جزئي أو تدمرت بالكامل‪،‬‬ ‫أعمال هدفها توفير مداخيل ألسرهم‪ 22.‬وعليه‪ ،‬ورغم‬ ‫في حين كانت حلب هي األعلى من حيث نسبة المرافق‬ ‫أن هذه المرافق لم ت�تعرض ألضرار‪ ،‬إال أنه قليالً ما‬ ‫التعليمية المدمرة بالكامل (‪ .)15%‬وفي عموم المدن‬ ‫يتم استخدامها على الرغم من القول بعكس ذلك‪.‬‬ ‫الـ ‪ 14‬المشمولة في التقي�يم‪ ،‬ال يزال ما نسبته ‪ 70%‬من‬ ‫في الواقع‪ ،‬ال تزال الخدمات التعليمية وفرص التعلم‬ ‫المرافق التعليمية عامالً‪ ،‬بغض النظر عن نوع المنشأة‪،‬‬ ‫ا للمخاطر المرتبطة‬ ‫المقدمة للطالب محدودة نظر ً‬ ‫في حين كانت المدارس االبتدائية هي أكثر المرافق‬ ‫بالصراع المستمر‪.‬‬ ‫التعليمية تعطالً‪.‬‬ ‫‪ .11‬الخدمات البلدية‬ ‫البلدية وشبكات الطرق‪ ،‬من ‪ 37.7‬إلى ‪ 46.2‬مليون دوالر‪.‬‬ ‫ت�تراوح قيمة إجمالي األضرار المقدرة التي ت�كبدها‬ ‫وتشمل هذه األصول مباني اإلدارة البلدية والمكتبات‬ ‫قطاع البنية التحتية البلدية‪ ،‬والتي تغطي األصول‬ ‫‪ 21‬تشمل هذه المواقع ما يلي‪ :‬موقع تدمر‪ ،‬مدينة بصرى القديمة‪ ،‬مدينة حلب القديمة‪ ،‬قلعة الحصن‪ ،‬قلعة صالح الدين‪ ،‬القرى‬ ‫القديمة في شمال سوريا‪.‬‬ ‫‪ 22‬مكتب األمم المتحدة لتنسيق الشؤون اإلنسانية‪.‬‬ ‫التقي�يم المشترك لحجم األضرار في مدن سورية مختارة ‪33‬‬ ‫ا)‪ ،‬ومن ثم الحدائق‬ ‫ا أو غير صالح كلي ً‬ ‫منها صالح جزئي ً‬ ‫والحدائق والمواقع الثقافية والقاعات واألسواق‬ ‫ا‬‫ا) وأخير ً‬ ‫ا أو غير صالح كلي ً‬ ‫والترفيه (‪ 23%‬منها صالح جزئي ً‬ ‫المجتمعية واإلسكان ميسور الت�كلفة‪ .‬األضرار التي‬ ‫ا‬ ‫مرافق اإلدارة البلدية والمكتبات (‪ 8%‬منها صالح جزئي ً‬ ‫لحقت بهذه األصول كبيرة وت�تراوح من ‪ 21.3‬إلى ‪25.7‬‬ ‫ا)‪ .‬وباإلضافة إلى هذا الضرر المادي‪،‬‬ ‫أو غير صالح كلي ً‬ ‫مليون دوالر‪ 23.‬وقد أدى ذلك‪ ،‬إلى جانب األضرار التي‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ت�أثرت القدرة على الوصول إلى الخدمات العامة سلب ً‬ ‫لحقت بالبنية التحتية للطرق والتي تقدر بنحو ‪16.4-20.5‬‬ ‫ا‪ ،‬تدهورت‬ ‫بسبب األضرار التي لحقت بالطرق البلدية‪ .‬أخير ً‬ ‫مليون دوالر‪ ،‬إلى خسارة كبيرة في مستوى توفر‬ ‫إدارة النفايات الصلبة وإدارة مياه الصرف الصحي‪،‬‬ ‫الخدمات العامة والقدرة على الوصول إليها‪ .‬وتشير‬ ‫والتي كانت أصالً سيئة قبل الصراع‪ ،‬بشكل كبير‪ ،‬مما عرض‬ ‫التقديرات إلى أن أكبر ضرر ت�كبدته قاعات المجتمع‬ ‫الكثير من السكان لمخاطر صحية‪ ،‬إذ يشكل التراكم الكبير‬ ‫واألسواق (من ‪ 13.4‬إلى ‪ 15‬مليون دوالر)‪ ،‬يليه اإلسكان‬ ‫للحطام الناتج عن الصراع‪ ،‬والذي لم ت�تم إزالته بعد‪ ،‬خطر ً‬ ‫ا‬ ‫الميسور الت�كلفة (من ‪ 3.8‬إلى ‪ 4.8‬مالي�ين دوالر)‪،‬‬ ‫ا على السكان‪ .‬وال تزال التحديات الرئيسية التي‬ ‫صحي ً‬ ‫ا آخر ً‬ ‫واإلدارة البلدية والمكتبات (من ‪ 2.4‬إلى ‪ 3‬مالي�ين دوالر)‪،‬‬ ‫تعوق توفير الخدمات البلدية ت�تمثل في نقص التموي�ل‬ ‫والمتنزهات والترفيه (من ‪ 1.7‬إلى ‪ 2.9‬مليون دوالر)‪.‬‬ ‫المطلوب الستعادة األصول المتضررة وفقدان القدرات‬ ‫ا هي المباني‬ ‫وكانت البنية التحتية المادية األكثر تضرر ً‬ ‫المؤسسية‪.‬‬ ‫ا أو غير‬‫السكنية ميسورة الت�كلفة (‪ 57%‬منها صالح جزئي ً‬ ‫ا) تليها القاعات واألسواق المجتمعية (‪38%‬‬ ‫صالح كلي ً‬ ‫‪ .12‬المؤسسات العامة‬ ‫ا في هذا الصدد‪ .‬وعلى نحو أكثر تفصيالً‪ ،‬تعرض ‪3‬‬ ‫تضرر ً‬ ‫ت�تراوح قيمة األضرار المقدرة التي ت�كبدتها المؤسسات‬ ‫من أصل ‪ 9‬منشآت في الرقة إلى تدمير كامل‪ ،‬في حين‬ ‫العامة من ‪ 7‬إلى ‪ 8.5‬مالي�ين دوالر في ‪ 14‬مدينة مدرجة‬ ‫تعرضت واحدة من أصل ‪ 3‬منشآت في منبج‪ ،‬وواحدة من‬ ‫في التقي�يم‪ .‬فقد تضرر نحو ‪ 13( 10%‬من أصل ‪ )127‬من‬ ‫أصل ‪ 3‬منشآت في تدمر إلى أضرار جزئية‪ .‬المدن األخرى‬ ‫المرافق التي تم تقي�يمها (مكاتب البريد‪ ،‬والمحاكم‪،‬‬ ‫التي تعرضت المؤسسات العامة فيها إلى أضرار هي‪:‬‬ ‫والمباني اإلدارية الوطنية‪ ،‬والمرافق اإلدارية‬ ‫الزبداني (‪ 25%‬من المرافق التي تم تقي�يمها)‪ ،‬إدلب‬ ‫اإلقليمية‪ ،‬ومراكز الشرطة‪ ،‬وما إلى ذلك) في الـ ‪14‬‬ ‫(‪ ،)13%‬دير الزور (‪ ،)13%‬حلب (‪ ،)13%‬درعا (‪ .)4%‬وقد أثرت‬ ‫مدينة التي شملها التقي�يم جراء الصراع‪ ،‬حيث تعرض‬ ‫األضرار التي لحقت بهذه المباني اإلدارية بشكل سلبي‬ ‫‪ 2%‬منها إلى دمار كامل‪ ،‬في حين تعرض ‪ 8%‬إلى أضرار‬ ‫على تقديم الخدمات العامة‪.‬‬ ‫جزئية‪ .‬وكانت مدن منبج وتدمر والرقة هي المدن األكثر‬ ‫‪ .13‬البيئة‬ ‫هائلة‪ ،‬حيث وجدت تحليالت األضرار البيئية حالة كبيرة‬ ‫ص إليها هذا‬ ‫يتراوح إجمالي األضرار البيئية التي خ ُ‬ ‫ل َ‬ ‫من التلوث الناجم عن األنشطة االستخراجية وتدمير‬ ‫التقي�يم من ‪ 167.6‬إلى ‪ 269.0‬مليون دوالر‪ .‬وتشمل‬ ‫البنية التحتية‪ ،‬ناهيك عن التلوث الناجم عن استخدام‬ ‫قيمة األضرار البيئية ت�كلفة إزالة األنقاض من المساكن‬ ‫ا من‬‫األسلحة‪ .‬ووجد التقي�يم أن ما يقدر بنحو ‪ 160‬طن ً‬ ‫المتضررة والتعامل معها (‪ 268.7 - 167.3‬مليون دوالر)‪،‬‬ ‫النفايات اإللكترونية جاءت من المرافق الصحية المدمرة‬ ‫ومعالجة النفايات اإللكترونية الصادرة عن المرافق‬ ‫ا‪ ،‬بينما أتى ما يتراوح من ‪ 17.6‬إلى ‪28.3‬‬ ‫والمتضررة جزئي ً‬ ‫الصحية (‪ 0.4‬مليون دوالر)‪ .‬وتقدر ت�كلفة خسائر خدمات‬ ‫مليون طن من الركام من المساكن المتضررة‪ .‬وكانت‬ ‫النظم اإليكولوجية بحوالي ‪ 36‬مليون دوالر‪ .‬ومع ذلك‪،‬‬ ‫ا من النفايات الخاصة‪ ،‬تليها‬‫مدينة حلب هي األكثر تضرر ً‬ ‫ليس من الممكن تقدير الت�كلفة اإلجمالية للتدهور‬ ‫مدن درعا والرقة وحمص وإدلب وداريا‪ .‬وت�تعلق الفئة‬ ‫البيئي الناجم عن النزوح والصراع‪ ،‬وسوء إدارة النفايات‬ ‫الثانية من األضرار البيئية بالنظم اإليكولوجية الطبيعية‪،‬‬ ‫الصلبة ومياه الصرف الصحي (بسبب التراجع الكبير في‬ ‫والتغيرات في استخدام األراضي‪ ،‬وت�أثيرات الصراع‬ ‫قدرات وإمكانيات السلطات المحلية) ضمن نطاق هذا‬ ‫والنزوح على الخدمات البيئية‪.‬‬ ‫التقي�يم‪ .‬لقد كانت ت�كلفة الصراع على البيئة في سوريا‬ ‫‪ 23‬المدن التي شملها تقي�يم األضرار التي لحقت بالخدمات البلدية هي مدن عفري�ن‪ ،‬وحلب‪ ،‬ودرعا‪ ،‬وداريا‪ ،‬ودير الزور‪ ،‬والحسكة‪ ،‬وحمص‪،‬‬ ‫وإدلب‪ ،‬ومنبج‪ ،‬وتدمر‪ ،‬والرقة‪ ،‬والرستن‪ ،‬وتل أبيض‪ ،‬والزبداني‪.‬‬ 34 S Y R I A J O I N T D A M A G E A S S E S S M EN T O F S EL E C T ED C I T I E S Photo credit: Shutterstock I N T R O D U C T I O N 35 INTRODUCTION More than half of the country’s pre-conflict population (of almost 21 million) has been displaced—one of the largest displacements of people incurred by a country since World War II. 36 S Y R I A J O I N T D A M A G E A S S E S S M EN T O F S EL E C T ED C I T I E S Context Since 2011, the conflict in Syria has devastated system, Syrians remain extremely vulnerable its people, their cities, and economy. More to additional shocks, such as the COVID-19 than 400,000 deaths have been directly outbreak still unfolding.  attributed to the conflict so far, with millions more casualties known to have occurred Damage to urban areas has been significant, indirectly. More than half of the country’s and Syria has become highly urbanized during pre-conflict population (of almost 21 million) the conflict. Initial estimates indicate that has been displaced—one of the largest in urban areas such as Aleppo and Homs, displacements of people incurred by a country which experienced prolonged conflict, more since World War II. than 50 percent of the urban fabric has been moderately or severely damaged. Over 65,000 Poor healthcare, education, housing, and units of housing stock are estimated to have food shortages have worsened the effects been totally destroyed in Homs, which is more of the conflict and pushed millions of people than 35 percent of the pre-war housing stock. into unemployment and poverty. Diminished An increase in rural-urban migration has made social cohesion as a result of the conflict is it harder for local municipalities to provide another concern for the long-term recovery housing and services. of Syria. With a severely degraded healthcare Objective of the Damage Assessment (DA) The Syria DA is a broad-brush and largely This DA serves as a corner stone for future remote-based exercise, focusing on 14 discussions with the international community cities, and drawing on satellite imagery and on Syria and provides a working model for existing secondary sources of information, scaling-up when a comprehensive Damage including social media analytics, existing public and Needs Assessment (DNA) and additional information, and partner organizations’ data forward-looking assessments and analytical to assess damage to physical infrastructure work are needed. By establishing baselines, and the state and availability of public updating damage estimates, and enhancing services. Specifically, the DA aims to: partnerships, the joint assessment lays the foundation for future planning and recovery. • Assess the impact of the crisis on the Since the DA was conducted during an ongoing population and service delivery. conflict, it is not a comprehensive evaluation • Provide contextual information related founded on detailed, ground-based data to institutional capacity, impacts of as would be the case for a Recovery and deteriorating security conditions and Peacebuilding Assessment (RPBA). displacement. • Improve future planning and programming and strengthen relationships with international partners. I N T R O D U C T I O N 37 Scope The 2022 Syria DA is a follow-up to five Temporal Scope: The Syrian crisis started previous DAs that covered many of the in 2011; therefore, the damage is calculated same cities and sectors. This assessment against the actual or estimated pre-2011 is the sixth undertaken by the World Bank baseline of physical assets, established in the Group during the crisis and the first conducted December 2014 assessment.25 with its partners. For the 2022 DA, all but five cities24 had been previously assessed using Geographic scope: The assessment was similar remote-based damage detection conducted for the following 14 cities: Afrin, means. Similarly, many sectors assessed Aleppo, Dar’a, Daraya, Deir-ez-Zor, Al Hasakah, during this exercise had been assessed in Homs, Idlib, Manbij, Palmyra, Ar-Raqqa, previous DAs, namely, Health, Education, Rastan, Tell Abiad, and Zabadani. Within these Water and Sanitation, Electricity, Public major cities, the data are disaggregated at the Institutions, Municipal Services and Agri- neighborhood level while for the rest of the food Value Chains. For these sectors, the governorate, the data are disaggregated at the scope of analysis was established with sector district level. specialists. Previous assessments were a key part of the 2022 analysis. Sectoral scope: The assessment covers the following key 11 sectors: The selection of cities for this phase of the assessment was based on several criteria • Physical infrastructure sectors: - the extent of physical damage caused by Transport, Electricity, Water Supply and the conflict, the security conditions, the Sanitation, Municipal Services, Cultural accessibility of the area, the presence of Heritage, and Agri-food value chains. humanitarian actors, the ethnic diversity of • Social sectors: Housing, Health, and the population, the mix of government and Education. opposition-controlled areas, and the number • Cross-cutting sectors: Environment and of internally displaced persons (IDPs). Sectors Public Institutions. were decided through a combination of factors including data access and impact. Methodology Overview satellite imagery, social media analytics, data mining, and publicly available information.26 This Syria Damage Assessment (DA) Wherever possible, it uses damage data from provides a broad-brush estimate of publicly available ground-based assessments the effects of the conflict on physical to confirm findings. The assessment adapts infrastructure and service delivery. It relies from the Post-Disaster Needs Assessment primarily on a remote-based assessment (PDNA) methodology jointly developed by methodology, and uses high resolution the European Union, World Bank, and United 24 These five cities are: Kobane, Qamishli, Yabroud, Al-Bab, and Tadmour. 25 The comparison is also made relative to 2018 for the same cities which were covered in the previous assessment. 26 These sources of public information include EU, and JRC’s agricultural dataset and geospatial data. 38 S Y R I A J O I N T D A M A G E A S S E S S M EN T O F S EL E C T ED C I T I E S Nations and has been utilized in numerous required a damage range for each sector. analytical assessments around the world.27, 28 The low and high damage estimates were calculated within a margin of the average Damage information from these sources damage cost. The size of the range varied was assessed against the baseline. Much from sector to sector depending on the level of the baseline data relied on baselines of confidence. established in previous assessments. The baseline asset inventories were gathered from Key challenges include data fragmentation and pre-crisis government sources (circa 2011) and confidentiality, lack of baseline information, crowdsourced mapping data, and therefore limited timeframes for damage data relevance, describe assets prior to the crisis. Based on data accuracy due to the broad-brush nature the damage level, each asset was assigned a of the work, and varying DA methodologies. physical damage status: no damage, partial While satellite imagery data were corroborated damage (less than 40 percent of the asset is with other sources and means, including social damaged) and complete destruction (more media analysis, night-time lights data, and than 40 percent of the asset is damaged, or mobile signal data, a remote assessment is the damage is structural). Whenever possible, broad-brush and provides only an indicative the damage assessment also estimated the overview of impacts. While not all observed operational status of facilities (functional or impacts can be attributed to the conflict, for non-functional) to determine the level and example, the changes in agricultural output quality of service delivery in that sector. in Syria reflect a combination of conflict, Numerous sources of information and data weather conditions, and input prices etc, the were used, including social media, local and DA methodology makes every effort to contain international media, satellite imagery analysis, the estimation to the effects of the conflict. mobile signal data, and inferences from Such assessments are useful to describe the previous assessments when none of these nature and extent of impacts and broadly sources were available. This analysis was define enabling conditions for the return of based on the facilities’ physical status (based displaced populations. This can inform later, primarily on satellite imagery) and qualitative in-depth assessments. data from social media, news reports, and assessments from other organizations. Facility-Level Functionality For the damage estimation, the average damage value was based on the number and Damage Assessments of damaged facilities, their physical status For the education, health, electricity, WASH, (partially damaged or destroyed), and cultural heritage, public institutions, and the estimated pre-crisis unit cost 29 for municipal service sectors, facility-level each asset class. In line with standard DA research was carried out to assess whether methodology, destroyed assets were costed facilities in the asset baseline were damaged at 100 percent of their unit cost and partially and/or functioning. Sources and methods damaged assets at 40 percent. 30 The largely used include targeted searches of publicly remote nature of the assessment and the available information (including NGO reports difficulty to estimate unit replacement costs 27 European Union, World Bank, United Nations. Post-Disaster Needs Assessments, Volume A Guidelines (2013). . 28 The PDNA methodology draws from the Damage and Loss Assessment (DaLA) and the Human Recovery Needs Assessment (HRNA) methodology. 29 Pre-crisis unit cost was adopted as part of the cost calculation methodology, since only damages were assessed in this report. This is the standard practice to estimate damages as the methodology for damage estimation is backward- looking. 30 With the exception of the Transport sector in which destroyed assets are costed at 60 percent instead of 100 percent in line with prior damage assessments. I N T R O D U C T I O N 39 and social media), inferences based on overall • Partially Functioning: Facility appears to sector functionality, satellite imagery analysis, be functioning at 40 percent or more of and anonymized mobile phone signal data. pre-crisis levels, due to lack of resources, physical damage, high demand, etc. Publicly Available Information • Not Functioning: Facility is not functioning. All destroyed facilities are inferred to be not Searches functioning. Facilities converted from their original uses (i.e., schools to IDP shelters) Publicly Available Information (PAI) from are also considered not functioning. government and NGO reporting, local media, and social media for information about facility functionality and damage were reviewed. Whenever possible, imagery analysis was Imagery Analysis used to visually confirm reports of damage or functionality, preferably using pictures in Imagery analysts used 50cm commercial which the facility name is visible. imagery to assess damage for the 14 cities and compared their results with images provided Three tiers of sources were used to triangulate by JRC for selected sectors. Imagery analysts the data: assessed damage by classifying facilities and/ or sectors as follows: • Tier 1 Sources provide incontrovertible visual corroboration for damage or • No Damage functionality assessments. These might • Partially Damaged: <40 percent of the be a photo or video in which the facility facility/sector is damaged name is visible, or its facade can be easily • Destroyed: >40 percent of the facility/sector identified, and may come from partners is damaged, or the damage is structural. such as JRC, international NGOs, or other Indicators of greater than 40 percent neutral outlets such as unaffiliated Western include debris around the facility and media. in close proximity, clear changes in the facility’s exterior, damage to nearby roads • Tier 2 Sources include likely visual that may impact functionality, and damage corroboration for damage or functionality to the roof. assessments, such as a photo or video from the inside of a facility in which the name is not visible. These include reporting from Mobile Signal Data international media that may be biased. The task team relied on Software • Tier 3 Sources provide no visual Development Kit (SDK) mobile location data corroboration and/or are obviously biased. gathered across Syria from February 2020 Inferences are also considered Tier 3. Most to February 2021 to assess facility-level local and social media is Tier 3 unless it has functionality for the Health, Education, Public corroborating visual evidence. Institutions, Municipal Services, and Cultural Heritage sectors in the 14 cities. Data were Facility functionality was assessed by assigning compared prior to COVID (February 2020) one of the three following conditions: and during COVID, but not during the COVID lockdown (February 2021) to calculate a city- • Functioning: Facility is or appears to be wide average of cell phone signal density functioning at or near pre-crisis levels for each city. This normalized the impacts of variation in cell phone coverage over time and space. Only facilities at which the number of 40 S Y R I A J O I N T D A M A G E A S S E S S M EN T O F S EL E C T ED C I T I E S FIGURE 6: IMAGERY ANALYSIS SHOWING NO DAMAGE Example of a facility classified as No Damage. signals within 150 feet of the location was 20 functionality from the previous assessment percent or more above the city-wide mean were inferred. This is based on the assumption were assessed as likely functioning. The that major repairs or additional damage would dataset consisted of billions of data points have been reported in social media; however, it from across Syria. SDK data, such as time does not preclude the possibility that facilities and location, are gathered from third-party have reopened under different names. Finally, applications with the permission of the mobile inferences based on previous assessments are phone user. These data are associated with a more reliable for facilities that: cell phone user’s mobile advertising ID, such as Apple’s Identifier for Advertisers (IDFA) or (1) show no damage/continuous a Google Advertising ID (Advertising ID/Ad ID), functionality in cities that have not rather than publicly identifiable information, experienced significant conflict between and are anonymized before delivery. The data 2018 and 2021; or also include information such as the device type, whether a user was driving when the (2) show damage/no functionality in cities data were collected, and the data source that have experienced significant conflict (i.e., cell tower triangulation, Wi-Fi/internet between 2018 and 2021. connection, GPS data). Sectoral Asset Baselines Inferences For the cities of Rastan, Tell Abiad, Al Hasakah, For facilities for which none of the above Daraya, and Zabadani, the task team did sources were available, damage and not have asset baselines from previous I N T R O D U C T I O N 41 FIGURE 7: IMAGERY ANALYSIS SHOWING DESTRUCTION Example of a facility classified as Destroyed. assessments. Similarly, because the sectors Sector-Specific Methodologies of Cultural Heritage, Municipal Services, and Public Institutions were systematically assessed The task team relied on Publicly Available for the first time in this assessment, these Information (PAI) and imagery analysis to sectors did not have asset baselines either. assess facility damage, and PAI and mobile signal data to assess functionality for many of To build asset baselines, Google Maps, the sectors considered. Wikimapia, and OpenStreetMap were used to identify the locations and names of facilities in For the Health sector, qualitative a city. At least two of these sources were used assessments were also conducted to include wherever possible to confirm and validate information on staff shortages, vaccine both facility name and location. Where distribution within local health facilities, possible, pre-crisis government databases lab testing availability, treatment of non- were used to identify major facilities, communicable diseases, the status of such as universities, hospitals, and power pharmacies, availability of drugs and a city’s infrastructure in each city. However, facilities ability to cope with COVID-19 information. without at least a neighborhood-level location were excluded, as experience has shown For the Education sector, additional that these facilities are difficult to identify in qualitative assessments were conducted subsequent iterations, and introduce noise to on private education, staff shortages, the dataset. kindergartens and pre-Ks, and a city’s ability to cope with COVID-19, including an assessment of distance learning availability. 42 S Y R I A J O I N T D A M A G E A S S E S S M EN T O F S EL E C T ED C I T I E S For the Housing sector, the task team analysis. If these facilities did not have used imagery at the neighborhood level to accurate coordinates or could not be assessed determine representation of damage across using satellite imagery, their functional status housing classes. Representative samples was inferred using publicly available reporting for each neighborhood and asset type were on neighborhood-level water access. In some collected by imagery analysts. cases, inferences are based on city-level water access reporting. Finally, if neither To estimate cleared rubble, analysts used a neighborhood nor city-level reporting are rubble estimate formula to calculate total available, functional and damage statuses may rubble in 2018, then subtracted the 2021 be inferred from the previous assessment. rubble estimates from this figure. This figure was only based on city-level housing For Cultural Heritage sites, the task team decreases. Therefore, it did not account for also relied on a list of functioning mosques situations in which a net damage decrease published by the Ministry of Religious obscured increased damage in some areas Endowments (Awqaf) to infer functionality. and larger damage decreases in others. These lists, published in late 2020, include Relatedly, cities that had a net overall housing Homs, Zabadani, Daraya, and Rastan. For damage increase could not be assessed the historical housing neighborhoods in with this methodology - therefore, Afrin and Aleppo and Ar-Raqqa, the task team identified Aleppo were not included. Cities that were shapefiles that captured the extent of these not assessed in the previous assessment historic areas, and then used the housing (Al Hasakah, Daraya, Tell Abiad, Rastan and damage assessment to assess historical Zabadani) were not included either. housing damage. This method assumed that all or almost all buildings in the historic For the Electricity sector, the task team areas are historic buildings. To identify Dead used the Visible and Infrared Imaging Suite Cities (i.e., St. Simeon, Stylites, Ebla, and (VIIRS) of satellite sensors, run by NASA. Serjilla) the task team used imagery analysis This allowed the task team to assess Power and PAI research to assess site-specific sector trends, and to infer, for instance, that damage, threats, and status. The qualitative increased night-time illumination indicates assessment also provided a higher-level expanding electricity use. Some assets, assessment of threats and damage to the such as power lines and transformers, were Dead Cities in general. assessed individually using publicly available information because they were too small to For the Environmental sector, changes identify using satellite imagery and did not in forest cover at the district level were have specific names that could be searched calculated using the Global Forest Watch using PAI. A qualitative assessment of the forest loss dataset from 2011–2020. use, availability, and cost of solar panels was conducted whenever possible. For the Agri-food Value Chains sector, irrigated and rainfed agriculture areas were For the Transport sector, the task team delineated using the European Space Agency sampled each city’s overhead imagery (ESA) Climate Change Initiative’s 300m for visible examples of conflict damage, resolution land cover dataset from 2019. NDVI and dropped point markers for each values were derived from the MODIS Terra instance of this. satellite at 500m resolution. The median NDVI from March to June (growing season for most For the Water and Sanitation sector, given Syrian crops) for each agri-food value chain that many WASH facilities, such as wells and type in each governorate was calculated for water tanks or towers do not have unique the years 2011, 2015, 2018 and 2021. names, they cannot be searched using PAI and are therefore assessed using only imagery I N T R O D U C T I O N 43 For the macroeconomic assessment, the compiled reports from key NGOs, including task team also relied on night-time lights data. IOM and OCHA, and PAI from international, Finally, for population movements, the team Syrian, and local media. Key Challenges Data Fragmentation Limited Timeframe for Damage Data Relevance While information about the impact of the conflict exists both inside and outside Given the dynamic situation of an ongoing Syria, its use is limited for two key reasons: conflict, and the frequency and rapidity the information is fragmented (e.g., by with which damage occurs, data may not sectors, institutions, and not always remain accurate for long, while escalations in representative), and critical data are conflict may make ground surveys of assets often confidential. Fragmentation across very difficult. sectors, time, and countries makes it hard to compare data, and to corroborate findings from multiple data sources. While the remote methodology used in this assessment is Data Accuracy effective to broadly estimate the impact of This is largely a remotely conducted the conflict, some assets are less compatible exercise which relies mostly on remote- with remote methodologies and cannot be based data and publicly available measured as robustly. In addition, broken information. Data from satellite imagery have vertical reporting lines from municipalities to been corroborated and validated by other subnational authorities and ministries make sources and means, including social media it difficult to share data between institutions. analysis, night-time lights data, mobile signal Finally, confidentiality issues, and reluctance data and publicly available ground-based to share data also leads to fragmentation, and assessments. While all efforts are made to gaps in information. improve accuracy, a remote assessment is broad-brush and provides only an indicative overview of impacts. Such assessments Lack of Baseline Information are useful to understand the nature and extent of impacts and the broad enabling Absence of baseline information at the conditions for return of displaced populations. city level is another challenge. Most This can inform in-depth assessments and humanitarian actors on the ground report help to craft strategies and roadmaps for damage to facilities, but not with reference to coordinated interventions. a pre-damage baseline; this makes it difficult to systematically assess the effects of conflict on sectors and services. This DA addresses this lack of baseline information by collecting Damage Assessment Methodology data across various sources to formulate Given the dynamic situation on the ground a baseline for each sector against which and ongoing fighting, the challenge was more recent damage data may be compared to have a quick, low cost, and replicable and contrasted. assessment. To respond to this need, this assessment sought to establish baselines disaggregated by neighborhood. 44 S Y R I A J O I N T D A M A G E A S S E S S M EN T O F S EL E C T ED C I T I E S Displacement Dynamics The conflict has and continues to displace With the conflict abating and amid millions, with most IDPs having lost their slightly improved security conditions, the livelihoods. The closing of borders with northeastern regions registered a drop Jordan and Turkey made it increasingly difficult in IDP arrivals in 2021 compared to 2020. for IDPs to seek asylum abroad, resulting While humanitarian organizations secure in protracted internal displacement. Many some basic services, 31 drought and water IDPs live in highly vulnerable conditions and scarcity, however, depress economic revival are forced to rely on already scarce public and lower quality of life. As a consequence, services. With the exception of Ar-Raqqa, accumulated displacements still exceeded Deir-ez-Zor and Al Hasakah, which lost 53, returns in the northeastern governorates from 28 and 27 percent of their populations during 2017 to mid-2022 (Figure 8). While the vast the conflict, other governorates witnessed majority of both refugees and IDPs wishes to a significant influx of IDPs since 2011. Idlib, return, overall returns remain low as many for example, has doubled its population IDPs and refugees avoid returning to areas to over 2.7 million, with IDPs comprising under government control, fearing arbitrary almost two thirds of its population in 2021. arrest, detention, forced conscription, and Many camps and informal settlements Housing, Land and Property (HLP) issues.32 remain overcrowded, mostly in the Idlib and While hostilities have declined overall, many Aleppo governorates. In the northeastern drivers of conflict have remained or even governorates, more than 100,000 individuals intensified. Among others, economic collapse live in camps, many without services or any has further eroded purchasing power and immediate prospect to return home. Although exacerbated the vulnerability of poor and humanitarian organizations operating in these displaced populations. Destruction of physical areas provide basic resources and services, infrastructure and limited government these are often unavailable in other parts of resources undermine service delivery in all the country while many returnees struggle to sectors. In that way, the conflict caused a get sufficient humanitarian assistance. significant decline in virtually all indicators of well-being and overall life satisfaction to a level that is unparalleled worldwide, 33 giving rise to continued protests, riots, and conflicts over scarce resources. 31 European Asylum Support Office (2020) “Syria – Internally displaced persons, returnees and internal mobility.” Country of Origin Information Report. 32 Syrian Association for Citizen’s Dignity (2020) “We Are Syria – Survey of 1,100 Displaced Syrians on the Reasons for Displacement and Minimum Conditions for Return.” Available at: https://syacd.org/we-are-syria/; European Institute for Peace (2019). “Refugee Return in Syria: Dangers, Security Risks, and Information Scarcity.” European Asylum Support Office (2020). “Syria – Internally displaced persons, returnees and internal mobility.” Country of Origin Information Report. 33 European Institute for Peace (2019) “Refugee Return in Syria: Dangers, Security Risks, and Information Scarcity.” European Asylum Support Office (2020). “Syria – Internally displaced persons, returnees and internal mobility.” Country of Origin Information Report; Joseph K. Young, “Repression, Dissent, and the Onset of Civil War.” Political Research Quarterly 66, no. 3 (2013): 516–532; David Cingranelli et al., “Human Rights Violations and Violent Internal Conflict.” Social Sciences 8, no. 41 (2019), https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci8020041. I N T R O D U C T I O N 45 FIGURE 8: IDP ARRIVALS TO RETURNEES PER GOVERNOR ATE FROM 2016 TO AUGUST 2022 AND TOTAL NUMBER OF IDP ARRIVALS PER GOVERNOR ATE FROM 2016 TO 2022 10,000,000 1,200,000 Idleb 1,000,000 Aleppo 800,000 Al-Hasakeh 1,000,000 Ar-Raqqa 600,000 Dar'a Total IDPs Deir-ez-Zor 400,000 Hama Rural Damascus 200,000 100,000 Homs Lattakia Damascus Quneitra 0 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 As-Sweida Aleppo Al-Hasakeh Ar-Raqqa Dar'a 10,000 Deir-ez-Zor Homs 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 Total Returnees Idleb Rural Damascus Source: Based on UN OCHA (2022) IDP movements and IDP spontaneous return movements data. Photo credit: World Bank 46 S Y R I A J O I N T D A M A G E A S S E S S M EN T O F S EL E C T ED C I T I E S Photo credit: Shutterstock M A C R O E CO N O M I C I M PA C T S 47 MACROECONOMIC IMPACTS Pre-Crisis Trends  Before 2011, Syria was a fast-growing, lower middle- income country. The Syrian economy had expanded since the turn of the century, albeit from a low base. Real GDP rose at an annual rate of 4.3 percent, on average, from 2000 to 2010, entirely driven by growth in the non-oil sectors. The annual inflation rate was 4.9 percent, on average. The current account was largely in balance, and by the end of 2010, Syria was estimated to have international reserves to cover over nine months of imports. The value of Syrian trade (measured in terms of value of imports and exports) reached 76.5 percent of GDP prior to the global financial crisis, which was relatively high compared with the average of 70.3 percent of GDP for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA; excluding oil-exporting high-income countries). Despite this momentum, Syria’s 2010 GDP per capita of US$2,949 measured at current prices was lower than those of neighboring countries (Iraq: US$4,521, Lebanon: US$8,846, and Jordan US$3,736).  48 S Y R I A J O I N T D A M A G E A S S E S S M EN T O F S EL E C T ED C I T I E S Effects of the Conflict on Economic Activity MACROECONOMIC IMPACTS  FIGURE 9: LUMINOSIT Y TRENDS IN SYRIA The conflict has led to a substantial contraction of Syria’s economy. Between A. Change in night-time light emissions, 2010 and 2019, Syria’s real GDP shrank by April 2012–April 2015 52 percent. The most severe contraction took place in 2012 and 2013, when economic activity fell by over 26 percent each year as the conflict intensified and spread across the country. Syria’s GDP contracted less in subsequent years owing partly to de-escalation of the conflict in some regions of the country, and even registered marginal growth in 2018 and 2019. The country’s economic conditions deteriorated again after 2020, however, following persistent conflict, a deepening economic crisis in neighboring Lebanon, and the COVID-19 pandemic which limited economic activity. The findings from night-time lights data, which are consistent with national accounts data, indicate a 72 percent reduction in light intensity   from April 2012–April 2015, and a 50 percent recovery by April 2021. The pace of recovery B. Change in night-time light emissions, April 2015–April 2021 is uneven across regions. Demonstrating the persistent impact of the conflict, light intensity has further declined in some war-affected areas since April 2015 (Figure 9). Economic activity has contracted in all sectors since the onset of the conflict. Economic disruption has been acute in the hydrocarbon sector. Crude oil production plunged from 416,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2010 to 79,000 bpd in 2021, owing largely to damaged energy infrastructure networks (Figure 10). There were significant losses in agricultural production as a result of damage to irrigation systems, severe droughts, and shortages of labor, seeds, fertilizer, and fuel. Industrial production also declined following Source: World Bank staff calculations.  shortages in fuel and power, limited access to Note: Red represents light intensity lost; green represents light intensity gained.  capital, destruction of physical infrastructure, and the relocation of major manufacturing bases. The service sector suffered as M A C R O E CO N O M I C I M PA C T S 49 economic activity declined, security threats International trade declined severely, prevented tourism, and economic sanctions especially exports, due to conflict and were imposed (Figure 11).  international sanctions. Mirror statistics from the UN Comtrade database show that Both private and public investment shrank exports fell from US$18.4 billion in 2010 to sharply. Investors exited Syria due to insecurity US$1.5 billion in 2019, driven by declining oil and the poor business environment, causing and tourism revenues. Earnings from these private investment as a share of GDP to decline sectors, which amounted to about US$12.8 from 12.3 percent in 2010 to 4.4 percent in billion in 2010, are now insignificant due to the 2019, while public investment fell from 8.2 to conflict (Figure 14). Imports also contracted, 2.5 percent of GDP as revenues declined and particularly those linked to industrial spending on arms rose (Figure 12). On average, production, from US$22.7 billion in 2010 to investment only accounted for 7.6 percent US$7.1 billion in 2019 (Figure 15).  Given the of GDP over 2015–2019, an extremely low decline in exports relative to imports, the trade contribution, even among fragile and conflict- deficit has deepened, falling from 35 percent of affected economies (Figure 13).  GDP in 2014 to about 15 percent in 2019.  FIGURE 10: PETROLEUM AND OTHER FIGURE 11: GDP BY SECTOR LIQUIDS PRODUCTION  (CONSTANT NATIONAL PRICES, (THOUSAND BARRELS PER DAY)  INDEX, 2010=100)  450 140 400 120 350 100 300 80 250 60 200 40 150 20 100 0 50 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 0 Agriculture Mining, Manufacturing and Utilities 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Building and Construction Services Source: Central Bureau of Statistics of Syria; Energy Information Administration (EIA)  FIGURE 12: PUBLIC AND PRIVATE FIGURE 13: GROSS FIXED INVESTMENT CAPITAL FORMATION (SHARE OF NOMINAL GDP)  (SHARE OF NOMINAL GDP, 2015-19)  20% Syria (2015-2019) 15% Syria (2011-2014) High-intensity conflict 10% (excluding Syria) Syria (2006-2010) 5% Medium-intensity conflict 0% High institutional 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 and social fragility Public Sector Private Sector 0% 10% 20% 30% Source: Central Bureau of Statistics of Syria; Find My Friends Tool using the IMF WEO  Note: The classification is from the FY22 list of fragile and conflict-affected countries situations, released by the World Bank. 50 S Y R I A J O I N T D A M A G E A S S E S S M EN T O F S EL E C T ED C I T I E S FIGURE 14: GROSS EXPORTS  FIGURE 15: GROSS IMPORTS  (US$, BILLIONS)  (US$, BILLIONS)  20000 30000 18000 25000 16000 14000 20000 12000 15000 10000 8000 10000 6000 5000 4000 2000 0 2011 2017 2012 1997 2013 2014 2015 1995 2018 2016 2019 1998 1996 1999 2001 2010 2007 2002 2003 2004 2005 2008 2006 2009 2000 0 2011 2017 2012 1997 2013 2014 2015 1995 2018 2016 2019 1998 1996 1999 2001 2010 2007 2002 2003 2004 2005 2008 2006 2009 2000 Agriculture Chemicals Minerals Vehicles Electronics Minerals Textiles Agriculture Chemicals Services Others Machinery Metals Textiles Services Others Source: Central Bureau of Statistics of Syria; Atlas of Economic Complexity, Center for International Development at Harvard University  FIGURE 16: SYRIAN POUND EXCHANGE FIGURE 17: CPI AND MARKET EXCHANGE R ATE (REL ATIVE TO THE U.S. DOLL AR)  R ATE (ANNUAL PERCENTAGE CHANGES)  5,000 350% 300% 4,000 250% 3,000 200% 2,000 150% 100% 1,000 50% 0 0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 -50% Official exchange rate Market exchange rate CPI Market exchange rate Source: Central Bank of Syria; Syrian Pound Today  FIGURE 18: FISCAL BUDGET (US$, FIGURE 19: SHARE OF BUDGETED BILLIONS; SHARE OF NOMINAL GDP)  SPENDING (US$, BILLIONS)  30 30% 100 90 25 25% 80 20 20% 70 15 15% 60 50 10 10% 40 5 5% 30 20 0 0% 10 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Revenues Expenditures Deficit (right-hand side) Current spending Investment spending Source: Central Bureau of Statistics of Syria; Central Bank of Syria. M A C R O E CO N O M I C I M PA C T S 51 Syria’s foreign exchange reserves have informal economy, and weak tax collection been almost completely depleted. The capacity. In response to this shortfall, persistent trade deficit has resulted in a government spending in dollar terms was cut drawdown of foreign exchange reserves. In back by about 75 percent during this period, addition, due to sanctions and conflict, Syria especially capital expenditure (Figure 18). has suffered major capital flight, while capital Between 2010–2022, capital expenditure fell inflows have ceased, adding to the loss of from 44 to 14 percent of fiscal expenditure foreign reserves. Increasing international aid, (Figure 19). The fiscal deficit was estimated to estimated at US$1.5 billion in 2019 based on be 12 percent of GDP, on average, during 2011– the official balance of payments statistics, and 2019. This deficit has been mostly financed increased net remittance inflows, estimated through central bank borrowing, which may at US$1.6 billion in 2019, have been major have worsened inflation.  sources of foreign currency since the conflict began. On balance, foreign reserves have The conflict and international sanctions declined severely from US$19.5 billion in 2010 have caused significant losses in the to less than US$1 billion in 2020. Syria further banking sector. Domestic banks had to tightened import restrictions and capital flows reduce their operations as the economy in 2021 due to the scarcity of foreign reserves.   shrank, sanctions tightened, investments dried up and the conflict affected businesses. The conflict has brought about a steep Meanwhile, foreign entities with strategic increase in prices. With depressed export partnerships in the sector have mostly taken revenues and the decline in international a passive approach, while some have cut all reserves, the official exchange rate of the relations with Syria. Assets in Syrian banks Syrian pound has declined 0-fold since the are estimated to have declined from US$45.5 conflict began, and reached 2,512 SYP/USD billion in 2010 to US$16.9 billion in 2020.  in May 2022. In comparison, the market exchange rate depreciated 80-fold, falling The economic impact of the conflict to 3,905 SYP/USD in May 2022, about 1.6 has been devastating. The Syrian conflict times the official rate (Figure 16). Syria has did not only damage strategic physical adopted a multiple exchange rate system infrastructure (the destruction channel), but with substantial price regulations, which has also caused a sharp rise in fatalities, forced restricted the efficiency of monetary policy outmigration, domestic displacement (the and deprived the economy of a nominal displacement channel), and the breakup anchor to reduce inflationary expectations. of economic networks (the disorganization With such unstable monetary policy, exchange channel). When a natural disaster destroys rate pass-through to domestic inflation has physical infrastructure in a well-functioning been substantial. This currency depreciation market economy with strong institutions (a has triggered sharp domestic price increases “capital destruction only” shock), investments since the conflict. During 2011–2020, the typically increase, the capital stock recovers average annual inflation rate in Syria was 38 quickly, and the negative growth effects percent (Figure 17).  are short-lived.  But in the case of conflict, reduced investments due to heightened The deteriorating external position of the risk, population displacement, institutional country has reduced fiscal revenues and degradation, and escalating rent-seeking led to fiscal adjustment. In dollar terms, compound the effects of physical capital revenues dropped by about 75 percent damage. As a result, the effective losses from between 2010 and 2021, largely due to physical capital damage are amplified, and losses in oil and tax revenues, the collapse of persist for longer than those caused by natural international trade due to sanctions, a growing disasters. 52 S Y R I A J O I N T D A M A G E A S S E S S M EN T O F S EL E C T ED C I T I E S Photo credit: Shutterstock P O V ER T Y A N D W EL F A R E I M PA C T S 53 POVERTY AND WELFARE IMPACTS 54 S Y R I A J O I N T D A M A G E A S S E S S M EN T O F S EL E C T ED C I T I E S Pre-Crisis Poverty Trends  Before the conflict, extreme poverty in Syria – were living conditions in the Northeast worse as measured by the 2011 US$1.90 purchasing than elsewhere in the country, but they had power parity (PPP) international poverty line – worsened during the pre-conflict period. was virtually non-existent. On the other hand, The gap across regions widened prior to the based on the official national poverty line conflict, and poverty increased in poorer - which was close to the international lower regions. Poverty in the Southern and Central middle-income poverty line of US$3.20 in 2011 regions declined between 1997 and 2004, PPP - about 2.4 million people were estimated driving overall poverty rates in Syria down in to be living in poverty in 2006/2007 i.e. about 2003–2004. The rural Northeast was the only 12.3 percent of Syria’s population. Poverty in area in which poverty increased between 1997 Syria had a strong urban-rural divide, with and 2004. Over the period 2004–2007, only the rural populations poorer in monetary and Southern region (the urban South in particular) non-monetary terms.  and the rural Northeast experienced increases in poverty rates. The reason for this decline in Regionally, poverty was concentrated in the welfare was the drought in the rural Northeast Northeast, home to 56 percent of Syria’s and consequent migration of people to the poor, and in which approximately one in five Southern urban region, which also experienced inhabitants was living in poverty. Not only a large influx of Iraqi refugees. Effects of the Conflict on Poverty  Conflict in Syria has had devastating After a decade of conflict, Syrians face the impacts. Conflict, displacement, and the compounding effects of multiple crises collapse of economic activities and social with devastating impacts on their welfare. services have all contributed to declining Since January 2020, the Syrian pound has welfare. It is estimated, that over the last 10 depreciated by over 150 percent, leading to years, that conflict has claimed the lives of rampant inflation and further declines in at least 350,209 individuals and displaced welfare. The COVID-19 pandemic has reduced (internally and/or internationally) over 50 incomes, distorted already dysfunctional percent of the population. As of May 2021, markets, and disrupted basic services, almost one third of Syria’s population are tragically increasing the Survival Minimum internally displaced, with the governorates of Expenditure Basket (SMEB) from 9 percent in Idlib, Rural Damascus, Latakia, Damascus and January 2020 to 22 percent in January 2021. Aleppo having the highest incidence of IDPs According to recent WFP estimates, 12.4 relative to resident populations (Figure 20). million Syrians (60 percent of the population) are food insecure while 1.3 million cannot Both monetary and non-monetary dimensions survive without food assistance. of welfare have been profoundly impacted. Extreme poverty has consistently risen The destruction wrought by conflict has since the onset of the conflict, reflecting been widespread across sectors and deteriorating livelihood opportunities and locations, with detrimental effects on progressive depletion of household coping household welfare. Based on information capacity. In non-monetary terms, access to collected through the Damage Assessment shelter, livelihoods, health, education, water exercise, cities have been ranked according to and sanitation have all worsened dramatically a composite deprivation index which considers since the conflict began.  damage and functionality assessments of various sectors. Two broad indexes are considered for the welfare assessment: P O V ER T Y A N D W EL F A R E I M PA C T S 55 FIGURE 20: DISTRIBUTION OF IDPS BY GOVERNOR ATE 2000000 70 % IDP OVER TOTAL POPULATION 1800000 60 1600000 1400000 50 NUMBER OF IDPS 1200000 40 1000000 800000 30 600000 20 400000 10 200000 0 0 Idlib Rural Damascus Latakia Damascus Aleppo Al-Hasakah Deir ez-Zor Homs Ar-Raqqa Tartous As-Suwayda Hama Daraa Quneitra Number of IDP % IDP Source: HNAP Population Assessment, May 2021.  FIGURE 21: DEPRIVATION R ANKINGS BY CIT Y AND WELFARE DIMENSION Tell Abyad Zabadani Hasakah Palmyra az-Zawr Raqqah Daraya Aleppo Manbij Rastan Homs Dar'a Afrin Dayr Idlib 0 Most deprived 2 DEPRIVATION RANKING 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Human Capital Living Standards Average Ranking Source: World Bank calculations.  Note: Aleppo ranks equally on both human capital and living standards indexes. FIGURE 22: LIVING STANDARDS AND CONFLICTS, OCTOBER 2018–JULY 2021 Source: ACLED. 56 S Y R I A J O I N T D A M A G E A S S E S S M EN T O F S EL E C T ED C I T I E S human capital (health and education) and living standards (water and sanitation, municipal services, and housing). 34 In addition, these indexes also consider the damage to and functionality of “enabling sectors,” which include Public Institutions, Transport and Electricity. Figure 21 The regions shows deprivation rankings. On average, Daraya, Ar-Raqqa and Palmyra are the most deprived with the lowest cities. Palmyra – in the Homs governorate – has living standards the highest human capital deprivation, while Rastan – also in the Homs governorate – has the have the most deprived living standards. As detailed in the most conflict. report, conflict has had differing impacts across sectors within cities. Some, such as Palmyra, Idlib, Rastan and Afrin show marked differences in indices, while Aleppo, Daraya and Tell Abiad rank similarly for both. The regions with the lowest living standards have the most conflict. Conflict has degraded living conditions, and the lack of resources and public services drives new conflicts, including protests and riots. The regions with the lowest living standards for water and sanitation, housing, and municipal services are subject to the most conflict, including social conflict in the form of protests and riots, as well as clashes and shelling (Figure 27). From October 2018 until July 2021, Idlib, Dar’a and Ar-Raqqa experienced repeated protests and riots, while better serviced cities such as Tell Abiad, Zabadani and Homs had less social conflict. Afrin is a notable exception, as services generally remain more widely available than in other conflict-affected parts of the country, despite recurring clashes and shelling. Continuous conflict, however, retards the economic and institutional development needed to recover living standards, weakens business networks needed for productive sectors, and slows human capital development as millions of children and students are unable to study.35 Notably in government-held areas, arbitrary detentions, political exclusion, and other forms of repression drive ongoing protests and violence. 34 Lack of location specific assessments for Agriculture and industries prevented inclusion of “Livelihoods” in the welfare assessment. 35 World Bank. 2017. The Toll of War. The economic and social consequences of the conflict in Syria. I M PA C T O N P H Y S I C A L I N F R A S T R U C T U R E A N D A G R I C U LT U R A L A S S E T S 57 IMPACT ON PHYSICAL INFRASTRUCTURE AND AGRICULTURAL ASSETS Photo credit: Shutterstock 58 S Y R I A J O I N T D A M A G E A S S E S S M EN T O F S EL E C T ED C I T I E S Transport  Pre-Crisis Sector Conditions BACKGROUND AND ANALYSIS accounted for an average of 84 percent of all air travel between 2007 and 2010. In 2010, OF SECTOR CHARACTERISTICS, Syrian airports saw more than 2.4 million CONDITIONS, AND TRENDS departing passengers and over 2.5 million PRIOR TO THE CONFLICT  incoming passengers. Information on the institutional structure of In terms of rail transport, Syria had one of the Transport sector in Syria is very limited. the Middle East’s most extensive railway The Ministry of Construction and Development systems prior to the war. The major rail routes is responsible for the construction and connected Syria’s main cities, and a freight- maintenance of Motorways and Trunk roads, only line for phosphates connected Homs to and Local Administrative Units (LAUs) under the port of Tartous. During the first decade the Ministry of Local Administration and of the 21st century, trains carried goods and Environment (MoLAE) are responsible for passengers throughout the country, and Primary and Secondary Road networks. Syrian transported over 3.5 million passengers and railroads are operated by two companies, the more than 8 million tons of goods in 2010.  Chemins de Fer Syriens (CFS), a subdivision of the Ministry of Transportation, and the now Concerning maritime transport, Tartous defunct Syrian Hejaz Railways (SHR). and Latakia ports also grew significantly in container activity prior to the war, with Prior to the conflict, Syria’s road network incoming and outgoing containers at Tartous had rapidly expanded to keep pace port doubling between 2005 and 2010. with the growing population. Generally, secondary roads were in good condition, and construction was underway to extend the INVENTORY OF PHYSICAL major highway network to join Latakia and Aleppo. In the prewar period, the purchase INFRASTRUCTURE ASSETS of vehicles grew each year by an average of (GENERAL AGGREGATE FIGURES) 13 percent. Similarly, passenger numbers on commercial flights grew as the country The road network in Syria is estimated attracted tourists and foreign travelers who to be 97,401 km, of which 19,490 km are paved, including 1,103 km of expressways I M PA C T O N P H Y S I C A L I N F R A S T R U C T U R E A N D A G R I C U LT U R A L A S S E T S | T ransport  59 (motorways). In 2010, there were 2.07 million around 2,400 km of railroad throughout the vehicles in Syria, i.e., 0.1 vehicle per inhabitant. country, with around 1,900 km of standard Syria has three main international airports gauge and 400 km of narrow-gauge track. in: Damascus, the governorate of Latakia, Prior to the war, Syria owned 138 diesel- and Aleppo. Prior to the crisis, the Deir-ez-Zor electric train engines and 10 diesel-hydraulic Airport was also a large airport with three train engines. In terms of rail cars, Syria had military and two civilian runways; however, at 483 passenger carriages (358 passenger, 19 the start of the crisis the airport was converted restaurant, 45 sleepers, and 33 baggage vans) to a military facility, including a warehouse and 5,151 freight cars. There are 20 border for weapons and heavy equipment. Syria has crossings between Syria and its neighboring two major ports on the Mediterranean coast, countries: nine with Turkey, four with Iraq, two Tartous and Latakia, which orchestrate the with Jordan and five with Lebanon.  country’s maritime transport. Syria also has Sectoral Damage Assessment  AGGREGATE SECTOR ANALYSIS and publicly available information suggest that Aleppo International Airport is largely The damage assessment in the Transport undamaged, except for some structural chapter covers physical damage to the damage and rubble primarily at the airport’s western end. Aleppo Airport following asset classes: Motorway, Trunk, ceased all commercial flights between Primary, Secondary Roads and Bridges, 2012 and 2020 but continued to function while damage to the remaining road classes primarily as a military facility; in February is accounted for in the Municipal Services 2020 civilian flights reportedly resumed chapter. The assessment indicates that after the eight-year hiatus. Aleppo’s three approximately 11 percent of intra-city roads train stations appear to be functioning were damaged as of September 2021, out and have sustained little or no damage. of which around 4 percent were destroyed Local and social media reports claim that and require major repair, and 7 percent were there are multiple weekday trains between partially damaged and need maintenance to Aleppo’s central railway station and Jibreen restore service delivery and access. In addition railway station east of the city. The railroad to conflict-related damage and neglect, armed line between Aleppo and Homs was groups have reportedly looted railway stations expected to reopen in May 2021, though for scrap metal. there are no indications this has happened.  • Dar’a: Dar’a sustained damage to 10 CITY-LEVEL ANALYSIS percent of its road network, of which 33 percent needs major repair and 66 Percentage damage to the road network in percent requires maintenance. Since the each city includes damage to motorways, start of the crisis, Dar’a train station has trunk roads, primary and secondary roads. been a front line between government- and opposition-held parts of the city, and Damage to bridges is discussed separately. Facebook pictures from December 2018 show extensive damage to this station • Aleppo: Approximately 25 percent of from conflict and neglect. Satellite imagery bridges in Aleppo are uncrossable, and from 2021 confirms that the station has 1.4 percent of roads need maintenance continued to degrade and does not appear and repair due to conflict-related damage operational, with no visible efforts to and lack of maintenance. Imagery analysis maintain or restore it. 60 S Y R I A J O I N T D A M A G E A S S E S S M EN T O F S EL E C T ED C I T I E S • Deir-ez-Zor: Deir-ez-Zor sustained damage road damage in the 14 cities. Local media to around 9 percent of its road network, of reported that Ar-Raqqa train station was which 33 percent needs major repairs and heavily damaged in January 2018, and as of 66 percent requires maintenance to restore August 2021 no efforts to repair the station service delivery and access. Deir-ez-Zor also could be detected in images, even though sustained damage to around 59 percent of much of the surrounding area has been its bridges, of which 96 percent need major cleared and/or rebuilt. The station seems to repair and 4 percent require maintenance. have been abandoned and appears not to As of September 2020, Deir-ez-Zor Airport be functioning.  was used as a Russian military base and civilian flights were suspended. However, • Manbij: Manbij sustained damage to 13 image analysis from 2017–2020 suggests it is percent of its road network, of which 33 no longer frequently used, although it is not percent needs major repair and 67 percent damaged. Deir-ez-Zor train station does not requires maintenance to restore access and appear to be functioning either. According service delivery. to image assessment, it does not appear to have incurred extensive conflict-related • Afrin: Afrin sustained heavy damage to damage; however, ground images suggest it 63 percent of its road network, of which has significantly deteriorated due to neglect. 33 percent requires major repair and 66 In July 2020, local media reported that railway percent requires maintenance. tracks, maintenance equipment, and some railway stations between Al Hasakah and • Palmyra: The city sustained damage to Deir-ez-Zor had been looted, and the metal nearly 13 percent of its road network, of sold for scrap in Turkey, Syria, and Lebanon. which 33 percent requires major repair and 66 percent requires maintenance. • Al Hasakah: Al Hasakah sustained damage to around 3 percent of its road network, of • Idlib: The city sustained damage to 23 which 33 percent needs major repair and percent of its road network, of which 35 67 percent requires maintenance. While percent requires major repair and 65 local media claimed work had begun on an percent requires maintenance to restore internal Al Hasakah rail line, image analysis service delivery and access. suggests that Al Hasakah train station has not been in use since August 2021. The • Daraya: The city sustained damage to 7 station’s tracks appear overgrown and a percent of its road network, of which 33 damaged hangar near the railway station percent needs major repair and 67 percent has not been repaired.  requires maintenance. According to image analysis, Daraya train station seems to have • Homs: Homs sustained damage to 6 been abandoned and appears partially percent of its road network, of which 33 damaged.  percent needs major repair and 66 percent requires maintenance. According to image • Zabadani: The city sustained damage to analysis, Homs train station appears to be 3 percent of its road transport assets, of functioning and to have sustained little which 33 percent requires major repair and damage. In September 2021, the Ministry 66 percent requires maintenance.  of Transportation (MoT) announced that 500 tons of gravel per day were being • Rastan: No damage data were reported. loaded from Homs quarry for railway reconstruction in Tartous, Aleppo and Adra. • Tell Abiad: Tell Abiad sustained damage to 5 percent of its road network, of which • Ar-Raqqa: With damage to 28 percent 33 percent requires major repair and of the road network, road damage in 67 percent needs maintenance. Image Ar-Raqqa accounts for 42 percent of all analysis suggests that Tell Abiad train I M PA C T O N P H Y S I C A L I N F R A S T R U C T U R E A N D A G R I C U LT U R A L A S S E T S | T ransport  61 station, which connects northern Aleppo care facility. In Daraya, while city residents and the surrounding area to Turkey, was can access health care within 10.5 minutes not operational until 2019. Since then, on average, 43 percent of the population it appears to have expanded, with new are unable to reach the nearest health care buildings recently built. The facility also facility within 20 minutes. Similarly, in Aleppo, appears to have resumed functioning, at while residents can find health care within least sporadically. 7.8 minutes on average, 29 percent of them cannot reach their nearest facility within 20 minutes, and 14 percent (over 180,000 people) CONFLICT IMPACT ON have no access within 30 minutes. Barriers to CONNECTIVITY AND health care accessibility include the general shortage of operational facilities and damage ACCESSIBILITY to roads.  Connectivity and Accessibility of the Accessibility to Schools  Road Network  Access to schools varies within cities and Damage to roads compromises the larger depends on the number of operational schools road network, as parts of this network may and on road damage. Across the 14 cities, be rendered inaccessible by damage to short 18 percent, or over 900,000 children and segments. Connectivity and accessibility others must travel over 10 minutes by car, a are the main indicators for service delivery standard threshold for education accessibility. in the road transport sector. Road network Similarly, 2 percent, or over 100,000 people availability at the city level generally decreased have no access to education facilities in their between 2011 and 2021 due to road damage. neighborhood. To make matters worse, in Connectivity i.e., density of roads for a given cities such as Ar-Raqqa, Rastan and Daraya, population size, changed from 2011 to 2021 larger populations are concentrated in due to road damage, population displacement, neighborhoods with lower access to schools. and resulting declines in population density. In Afrin, three schools in the city center are While the damage assessment in the closed, and road damage restricts access Transport sector only covers physical damage to the city center compared to outlying to motorways, trunks, primary roads, and neighborhoods. In Ar-Raqqa, schools are open, secondary roads and bridges, the accessibility but road damage in outlying areas means that analysis in the following sub-sections is based residents may drive for over 20 minutes to on combined damage to all roads as reported reach a school. in the Transport and Municipal chapters, as all of them affect accessibility. DAMAGE TO ASSETS AND PHYSICAL INFRASTRUCTURE Accessibility to Health Care Services  Damage to assets and physical infrastructure Across the 14 cities studied in 2021 about in the Transport sector in the 14 cities 1,150,000 people, or 23 percent of the amounts to US$1.2–1.7 billion, as detailed in population, are unable to reach a health care the table below.  facility within 20 minutes, and about 550,000 people, or 11 percent of the population, are unable to reach a health care facility within 30 minutes. Notably, no neighborhoods in Idlib are within 30 minutes of an operational health 62 S Y R I A J O I N T D A M A G E A S S E S S M EN T O F S EL E C T ED C I T I E S TABLE 3: DAMAGE INVENTORY (IN US$)  Total Partially Completely Low estimate, High estimate, Asset Type  Baseline  Damaged  Damaged  Destroyed  US$  US$  Motorway  81,478  -  -  -  -  -  5,787  Trunk  240,446  17,644  11,858   4,929,085    6,572,113     Primary  539,857  61,460  41,430  20,031  17,154,209  22,872,279  Secondary  405,750  55,003  36,548 18,455  7,707,691    10,276,921   Bridge  13,999  3,318  1,816  1,502  97,657,680  130,210,240  Total Roads 1,281,530  137,425  91,652  45,775    127,448,665      169,931,553    and Bridges  No damage data are available. The Syria Railway Railways  Company has costed damage to the railway network 1,000,000,000  1,500,000,000  in detail, but their data are unavailable at this stage. Ports are functioning. The estimated amount is to Ports  cover emergency maintenance and repairs to critical 30,000,000  40,000,000  physical infrastructure and support facilities.  Airports are functioning. The estimated amount is to cover emergency maintenance and repairs to critical Airports  30,000,000  40,000,000  physical infrastructure, support facilities, and safety and security equipment. Total  1,187,448,665 1,749,931,553  TABLE 4: CIT Y-LEVEL DAMAGE COSTS TO ROADS (IN US$)  City Low Estimate High Estimate Afrin 1,437,625 1,916,834 Aleppo 75,995,435 101,327,246 Dar’a 1,126,113 1,501,483 Daraya 254,387 339,182 Deir-ez-Zor 24,617,982 32,823,976 Al Hasakah 573,493 764,657 Homs 2,721,465 3,628,620 Idlib 4,721,847 6,295,796 Manbij 1,683,536 2,244,714 Palmyra 547,961 730,614 Ar-Raqqa 13,386,195 17,848,260 Rastan - - Tell Abiad 248,596 331,462 Zabadani 134,031 178,708 Total 127,448,665 169,931,553 I M PA C T O N P H Y S I C A L I N F R A S T R U C T U R E A N D A G R I C U LT U R A L A S S E T S | T ransport  63 Effects of the Conflict Damage and obstructions to roads have and growing dangers on its highways. In disrupted traffic flows, and hindered February 2020, following an eight-year hiatus, movement of people and goods, and access civilian flights at Aleppo Airport reportedly to employment and services. Road closures resumed, before being shut down again due have forced road users to choose alternative, to COVID-19 restrictions; however while the longer routes, which increase travel time and airport reportedly resumed civilian flights as transport costs for passenger and freight of January 202123, satellite images from 2021 traffic. Damage to roads is all-the-more suggest that the airport’s primary purpose intractable because of the shortage and costs remains military, but for sporadic international of resources and materials, the loss of human flights. capital, weak institutional and implementation capacities, limited finance and ongoing Following the start of the civil war in 2012, rail conflict.  transport of freight and passengers ceased throughout most of the country, causing a As of August 2021, the only border crossing 79 percent loss of users and a 91 percent authorized by the United Nations was the decrease in freight traffic between 2010 and Bab al-Hawa crossing with Turkey. Between 2019. Trains have only recently begun to July 2014 and July 2021, 37,405 trucks passed operate again - particularly between Tartous through this border post. and Latakia to serve students at the University of Tishreen and other passengers; between According to Syrian Government data, Aleppo and Jibreen for students, workers and passenger numbers on Syrian aircraft fell other passengers; and between Homs and by 32 percent between 2011 and 2019 Aleppo, and Tartous and Adra to transport while freight air miles grew by 130 percent gravel from the Homs quarry for railway over the same period, perhaps because of reconstruction. the destruction of the country’s railways Limitations The Damage Assessment is based on remote damage assessment for the Road sector data and image analysis, which were used focused on inter-urban road connections to estimate percentage damage per asset. classified as: motorways, trunk roads, primary Due to limitations in satellite imagery roads, secondary roads and bridges as these coverage, facilities outside of the cities were roads carry large volumes of traffic and the assessed using only qualitative sources. In Ministry of Transport is responsible for their addition, the assessment only covers physical development, operation, and upkeep. Damage damage to roads and bridges, and does not to tertiary roads, tracks, residential roads include damage to road traffic furniture such and service roads is covered in the Municipal as traffic lights, signs, or infrastructure such Services Chapter. as drainage or protection structures. The 64 S Y R I A J O I N T D A M A G E A S S E S S M EN T O F S EL E C T ED C I T I E S Electricity Pre-Crisis Sector Conditions The Electricity sector in Syria operated as a approximately 85 percent of consumers were vertically integrated, state-controlled model residential and industrial (the other 15 percent under the Ministry of Electricity. The Public were commercial and government consumers). Establishment for Electricity Generation and Compared to other intermediate income Transmission’s (PEEGT) mandate was to plan countries, the demand from industry was high and develop generation and transmission and that for commercial needs relatively low. assets while the Public Establishment for However, despite high electricity access, the Distribution and Exploitation of Electric sector faced growing challenges during this Energy (PEDEEE) did the same for the period, including: 1) rapidly growing demand Distribution sector. led to supply/demand gaps and frequent load shedding; 2) large total losses in the network Prior to the conflict the Electricity sector was (26 percent loss36); 3) deteriorating finances growing. Between 2002–2007 demand grew at and need for large government subsidies; 4) a rate of approximately 7.5 percent per annum fuel security issues due to inadequate domestic - driven by a growing economy, subsidized gas for power generation; 5) persistent power energy tariffs, and an influx of Iraqi refugees. outages (approximately 43 days of power 99 percent of the population had electricity and outage per year37). Sectoral Damage Assessment AGGREGATE SECTOR ANALYSIS These include Aleppo, Idlib and Deir-ez-Zor. The electricity infrastructure of Afrin, Homs, The assessment identified power plants, Manbij, Palmyra, Ar-Raqqa, Rastan, Tell Abiad dams, substations, towers, transformers, and and Zabadani was undamaged. administrative offices as the main assets of the Electricity sector, and found some cities Most damage was to power plants and substantially more damaged than others. substations. Damage estimates to the three 36 Hatahet, Sinan, and Karam Shaar. 2021, Syria’s Electricity Sector After a Decade of War: A Comprehensive Assessment. 37 Hatahet, Sinan, and Karam Shaar. 2021, Syria’s Electricity Sector After a Decade of War: A Comprehensive Assessment. I M PA C T O N P H Y S I C A L I N F R A S T R U C T U R E A N D A G R I C U LT U R A L A S S E T S | E lectricity 65 FIGURE 23: ELECTRICIT Y SECTOR – BY CIT Y Zabadani Tell Abyad Rastan Raqqah Palmyra Manbij Idlib Homs Hasakah Deir Ezzor Dara’a Aleppo Afrin 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Partially Damaged Completely Destroyed No Damage Unknown FIGURE 24: ELECTRICIT Y SECTOR – BY T YPE Admin Office Transformer Tower Substation Hydroelectric Dam Power Plant 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Partially Damaged Completely Destroyed No Damage Unknown power plants assessed ranged from US$784– Aleppo 1,568 million (97 percent of the estimated Aleppo has one power plant, one dam, and 16 cost of all damage in the assessed cities); nine substations, much of which were destroyed in substations at approximately US$19.8–52.8 the conflict. Aleppo’s38 thermal power plant is million; and four towers at approximately the largest in the country, with a capacity of US$420,000–840,000. 1,100 MW, and has been damaged and out of service for the past few years. CITY-LEVEL ANALYSIS Twelve substations are undamaged, three are partially damaged and one is destroyed. The Afrin main substation, Al-Zarba, was damaged and Afrin has limited electricity infrastructure, and could not operate, but according to local reports only two substations. Public electricity was was repaired in March 2021 and now functions; reportedly unavailable for over eight years. six other partially damaged substations were repaired in 2020/2021 and now function.39 38 Based on geographical location, and knowing that the link between area-specific damage and overall functionality (or service availability) is unclear, as power grids are typically interconnected country-wide. Fuel shortages also affect generation capacity. The status of transmission infrastructures between main load centers (cities) also plays a critical role in service delivery, but was beyond the scope of this assessment, which focused only on selected cities. 39 Enabling change in voltage levels and interfacing transmission and distribution systems.   66 S Y R I A J O I N T D A M A G E A S S E S S M EN T O F S EL E C T ED C I T I E S FIGURE 25: ELECTRICIT Y INFR ASTRUCTURE DAMAGE IN ALEPPO Dar’a power to Deir-ez-Zor (Jandar Power Plant) There are three power plants, three has not operated since July 2021 due to fuel substations, and three towers, which do not shortages. appear significantly damaged. As of August 2021, all power plants were undamaged, Al Hasakah and two were operating. All substations There are two power plants, a hydroelectric and towers except for one are undamaged, dam and five substations. One substation is and repairs have been done according to partially damaged, and most assets function government reports. or partially function. Al-Swaydiyah power plant is the main source of electricity to Deir-ez-Zor non-residential sites in the city because of There are two power plants and four decreased supply from the Thawrah and substations; one power plant is partially Tishrin dams. The Tishrin hydroelectric dam damaged and the other does not operate can function at full capacity, but electricity due to fuel shortages. Al Tayyim power plant production fell in 2021 with decreasing water was damaged in 2017 but has been repaired, levels in the lower Euphrates river. reportedly between 2019 and 2021. Of the four substations, one operates, two are destroyed, Homs and the status of the fourth is unknown. Homs has three power plants and seven Electricity from the public network is substations, none of which are damaged. unreliable as the main power plant supplying However, according to local media, they I M PA C T O N P H Y S I C A L I N F R A S T R U C T U R E A N D A G R I C U LT U R A L A S S E T S | E lectricity 67 function only some of the time, due to fuel after not operating for six years. The seven shortages. According to local media reports transformers were repaired in 2018 and now from 2020, six of seven substations function operate. partially and one is completely functional. Ar-Raqqa Idlib Ar-Raqqa has two dams, four substations, and Idlib has a power plant and four substations. 32 towers. The Taqba Dam was badly damaged Zayzun power plant has four gas turbines - in 2017 and repaired in 2018; however, Ar- three with a capacity of 128 megawatts and Raqqa’s dams do not operate at full capacity one with a capacity of 160 megawatts. The due to low water levels. 30 towers function, one plant, and two substations were substantially does not, and the status of another is unknown. damaged by fighting between 2015 and 2016, and remain so. The remaining substations Rastan have been repaired, but electricity supply is There is one power plant, the Al Zara unreliable. Thermal Power Plant, which is undamaged and estimated to provide 40 percent of the Manbij country’s electricity. There is one substation and five high tension towers. While damage has not been Tell Abiad reported, media reports in May 2021 stated There is one working substation. that blackouts lasting 20 hours per day were common. Zabadani Data unavailable. Palmyra There is one power plant, two substations and seven transformers. Jandar Power Plant DAMAGE TO ASSETS AND functions, and according to local reports, the substations were repaired in 2019 PHYSICAL INFRASTRUCTURE TABLE 5: DAMAGE INVENTORY (IN US$) Total Unit Cost Unit Cost Total Damage Total Partially Completely Damage Asset Type Baseline (Low (High Cost (High Damaged Damaged Destroyed Cost (Low Estimate) Estimate) Estimate) estimate) 800,000/ 1,600,000/ Power Plant 13 3 2* 1** 784,000,000 1,568,000,000 MW *** MW*** Hydroelectric 4 0 0 0     - - Dam Substation 49 9 4 5 3,000,000 8,000,000 52,800,000 19,800,000 Tower 46 4 2 2 150,000 300,000 420,000 840,000 Transformer 7 0 0 0     - - Admin Office 4 0 0 0     - - Total 123 16 8 8 3,950,000 9,900,000 804,220,000 1,621,640,000 *The damage assessment is based on the productive capacity of the two power plants, which is 1,200 MW. **The damage assessment is based on the productive capacity of the power plant, which is 500 MW. ***The unit cost is the cost of producing 1 MW of electricity. 68 S Y R I A J O I N T D A M A G E A S S E S S M EN T O F S EL E C T ED C I T I E S TABLE 6: CIT Y-LEVEL DAMAGE COST (IN US$) City Damage Cost (low estimate) Damage cost (high estimate) Aleppo 358,870,000 722,140,000 Dar’a 150,000 300,000 Deir-ez-Zor 38,000,000 80,000,000 Al Hasakah 1,200,000 3,200,000 Idlib 406,000,000 816,000,000 Total 804,220,000 1,621,640,000 *Cities listed are those which had damaged electricity infrastructure. Effects of the Conflict The conflict has severely affected electricity and illegal connections were a persistent service delivery. With two major power problem. The conflict has also made it plants partially damaged and one completely difficult for the public utility to bill and collect destroyed, approximately 20 percent of the payments, and hindered maintenance. country’s generation capacity is affected, and this has led to load shedding; while damage to The challenges currently faced by the sector transmission and distribution infrastructure relate mainly to damaged transmission (substations and towers) has greatly affected and distribution networks, particularly in service delivery. Also, the conflict has led to areas outside of government control, while fuel shortages, causing some assets to operate fuel for power stations is difficult to obtain below full capacity. Many cities have persistent due to the country’s dwindling oil and gas blackouts, some up to 15 hours a day. Social production. Expensive private generators are media analytics revealed that electricity theft increasingly used. Limitations FIGURE 26: OPER ATIONAL STATUS BY FACILIT Y This assessment has two main limitations. Admin Office First, while damage ratings to specific assets are reasonably accurate, damage to Transformer transmission and distribution networks is Tower harder to assess. Second, the assessment relied mostly on social media analytics and Substation qualitative reports, and did not use satellite Hydroelectric Dam imagery to support its findings. Power Plant 0 20 40 60 Functioning Partially Functioning Not Functioning Unknown IMPAC T ON PHYSICAL INFR ASTRUC TURE AND AGRICULTUR AL ASSETS | Water Supply and Sanitation (WSS) 69 Water Supply and Sanitation (WSS) Pre-Crisis Sector Conditions SECTOR CHARACTERISTICS e.g. in Idlib. Tariffs were set by the central government and applied uniformly throughout AND CONDITIONS AS PER the country. Despite three-yearly increases THE PREVIOUS DAMAGE recently, costs remain low for water services, ASSESSMENT and charges are negligible, if any, for sanitation. Water resources in Syria. Syria has an arid climate and receives most of its Inventory of Physical Infrastructure Assets. precipitation during winter. Syria depends The major asset classes investigated in this on transboundary rivers (Tigris, Euphrates, study include wells, water tanks/towers, Orontes, and Yarmouk) for most of its surface water treatment plants, sewage treatment water. Groundwater is a major source of water, plants, dams, dikes, pumping stations, and it is over exploited. storage reservoirs, and water and sanitation offices. There are 366 facilities, mainly wells Before 2011, Syria had high-quality WSS (153), water towers/tanks (158) and pumping services, with good coverage, managed by stations (25) distributed among 14 main cities. the state. The sector faced typical challenges Aleppo has the highest number of facilities pre-crisis including inadequate preventive with 198, followed by Idlib (30) and Homs (27). maintenance and challenges in rural supply Sectoral Damage Assessment AGGREGATE SECTOR ANALYSIS partially damaged and 7 percent destroyed), while the extent of damage/functionality This assessment covers 14 cities in Syria. for the remaining assets was unknown. WSS Around 366 WSS infrastructure assets were infrastructure is found only in the following assessed across these cities. The total damage cities: Afrin, Manbij, Tell Abiad and Zabadani. to known assets is 17 percent (10 percent 153 wells were assessed. Aleppo has the 70 S Y R I A J O I N T D A M A G E A S S E S S M EN T O F S EL E C T ED C I T I E S highest number (114 wells), followed by therefore qualitative. Thus, it is a major source Idlib (23 wells), Dar’a and Ar-Raqqa (4 wells of uncertainty for the Water sector damage each), Deir-ez-Zor and Palmyra (3 wells each), assessment and will require a quantitative and Afrin and Zabadani (1 well each). 26 wells approach when more information is available. were partially damaged and 13 destroyed. The destroyed wells are in Aleppo (6 wells) and Most WSS infrastructure is undamaged Idlib (7 wells). In Idlib, 16 wells are partially or repaired. Data indicate that 10 percent damaged. Where wells are still operational, of the centralized physical infrastructure there is a lack of diesel for the pumps which was partially damaged, and 81 percent reduces the wells’ operating time. 11 bulk undamaged. Most water infrastructure, water tower/tanks were destroyed (5 in such as major dams, pumping stations, and Aleppo, 3 in Ar-Raqqa, 2 in Dar’a, and 1 in reservoirs that feed irrigation networks have Homs, with 2 partially damaged out of a total been rehabilitated. of 158). Aleppo and Idlib have the most physical It was reported that the “El Jadida” water infrastructure damage, but all cities in treatment plant in Ar-Raqqa was destroyed the assessment have been affected by a between May 2015 and May 2016, but it is shortage of power to operate water facilities. not known whether it functioned prior to Services are still affected by major physical the conflict. The assessment found that the infrastructure damage and poor maintenance, sewage treatment plant in Daraya (41,000 and potable water is scarce (e.g., one-day cubic meters per day) was partially damaged, supply per week through the network, or less, and as of February 2021 did not function. Six due to low quality or low pressure). dams were assessed, in Afrin, Al Hasakah, Idlib and Manbij, and found to be functioning. The main source of water supply in Idlib is These dams are used for water supply and from the Az-Zarqa Spring via the Sayjar Water irrigation. The storage reservoir in Dar’a was Pumping Station. Most of the pumps, cables, repaired in 2017 and is back in service. 25 valves, and transformers in the pumping pumping stations were assessed, out of station were reportedly stolen in 2019. which two were destroyed, in Aleppo and Wastewater facilities and the sewer network Rastan, and three are partially damaged in were extensively damaged during the conflict. Al Hasakah, Rastan and Idlib. Finally, all the Residents (e.g., in Deir-ez-Zor) had adapted water and sanitation offices assessed in to the lack of a functioning sewerage system Deir-ez-Zor, Al Hasakah, Homs and Ar-Raqqa by digging septic tanks or channels to move are operating and undamaged. sewage from their property towards public areas. Such approaches damage buildings and Increased damage was reported in Ar-Raqqa roads, pose serious health risks, and lead to (29 percent), followed by Aleppo, Homs and a general deterioration in sanitary conditions; Dar’a (5 percent, 4 percent and 4 percent, this has led to an increase in water-borne respectively). There was no increase in illnesses (e.g., in Ar-Raqqa). damage in Deir-ez-Zor, Idlib or Palmyra. DAMAGE TO PHYSICAL CITY-LEVEL ANALYSIS INFRASTRUCTURE The study provides a partial perspective Tables 7 and 9 present estimated costs of on the damage sustained by the water damage for the 14 cities. Estimates were based infrastructure. It was difficult to assess the on discussions with engineers and a review of state of sub-surface piped networks through similar projects. satellite observation, and the assessment is IMPAC T ON PHYSICAL INFR ASTRUC TURE AND AGRICULTUR AL ASSETS | Water Supply and Sanitation (WSS) 71 It is important to note that costs are underestimated as they do not include damages to dams (table 8) and past, and Increased damage was ongoing repair/rehabilitation costs; and also, reported in Ar‑Raqqa because these repair/maintenance costs are higher in conflict zones due to security factors. (29 percent), followed by Aleppo, Homs and As shown in Table 9, the highest damage costs for WSS infrastructure are in Ar-Raqqa and Dar’a (5 percent, 4 Aleppo. percent and 4 percent, respectively). TABLE 7: DAMAGE INVENTORY (IN US$) Damage (#) Unit Cost (US$) Total Damage Cost (US$) Asset Baseline Total Partially Completely Low High Low High Types (#) Damaged Damaged Destroyed estimate estimate estimate estimate Well 153 39 26 13 $26,483 $42,373 $619,702 $991,528 Water Tower/ 158 13 2 11 $2,000,000 $16,000,000 $23,600,000 $188,800,000 Tank Water Treatment 10 3 2 1 $40,000,000 $80,000,000 $72,000,000 $144,000,000 Plant Sewage Treatment 6 2 2 0 $32,000,000 $50,000,000 $25,600,000 $40,000,000 Plant Dam 6 1 1 0 $- $- Dike 0 0 0 0 $- $- Levee 0 0 0 0 $- $- Other Drainage 2 0 0 0 $- $- Structure Pumping 25 5 3 2 $973,520 $1,835,781 $3,115,264 $5,874,499 Station Storage 1 0 0 0 $- $- Reservoir Water/ Sanitation 5 0 0 0 $- $- Office Total 366 63 36 27 $75,000,003 $147,878,154 $124,934,966 $379,666,027 (Phase VI) 72 S Y R I A J O I N T D A M A G E A S S E S S M EN T O F S EL E C T ED C I T I E S TABLE 8: DAM DAMAGE INVENTORY Capacity - City Dam Status million cubic Use Damage meter (MCM) No Damage. In 2021, the NGO Bahar handed over no damage, water supply/ Afrin Afrin Dam 190 responsibility for the dam to local authorities functioning irrigation after repairing it and operating it for a year. Al Hasakah Al no damage, No damage, functioning according to local East Dam 0.2 irrigation Hasakah functioning government Reservoir Al Hasakah Al no damage, No damage, functioning according to local West Dam 0.09 irrigation Hasakah functioning government Reservoir Al- no damage, water supply/ Idlib 3.6 No damage, functioning since 2019 Duwaysat functioning irrigation Prior to the conflict, water was pumped from Az-Zarqa to the dam. Due to a lack of electricity, bombing of pumps, and lack of repair, this no no damage, water supply/ Idlib Al-Bale’a 14.5 longer happens, and Al-Bale’a’s level has fallen. functioning irrigation The dam was damaged, and out of service for five years, but repairs began in 2019 and appear to be complete. Tishreen no damage, The dam is undamaged according to regional Manbij 0.026 Dam functioning officials The dam has been out of service since 2017, Dar’a Al Sad no damage water supply according to local media, due to sabotage, theft, and drought. TABLE 9: CIT Y-SPECIFIC DAMAGE COSTS 40 City Name Damage Cost (Low estimate) Damage Cost (High estimate) Afrin 0 0 Aleppo $12,806,570 $95,008,663 Dara’a $20,000,000 $64,000,000 Daraya $12,800,000 $20,000,000 Dayr az-Zawr $16,010,593 $32,016,949 Hasakah $389,408 $734,312 Homs $2,000,000 $16,000,000 Idlib $744,280 $1,302,111 Manbij 0 0 Palmyra $12,821,186 $20,033,898 Raqqah $46,000,000 $128,000,000 Rastan $1,362,928 $2,570,093 Tell Abyad 0 0 Zabadani 0 0 Total $124,934,966 $379,666,027 40 The cost excludes damage to water supply and sewerage networks, which is significant, and unknown. IMPAC T ON PHYSICAL INFR ASTRUC TURE AND AGRICULTUR AL ASSETS | Water Supply and Sanitation (WSS) 73 Effects of the Conflict In most areas, water delivery requires pumps, has been a gradual increase in cases of and thus a power infrastructure. Delivery waterborne illnesses from contaminated water thus relies on the electric grid, generators and in the Euphrates (e.g. in Ar-Raqqa). fuel. Services are disrupted mainly by lack of electricity, and also by damage to wells and Limited functionality of WSS facilities and water towers, and some cities have developed alternative water suppliers. Even where back-up plans, and deliver water with water physical infrastructure is undamaged, the trucks. state of WSS facilities is a significant problem, and many of them operate below standard, Water trucks provided an important secondary and require maintenance. This has pushed the source of drinking water in all cities between residents of cities to dig their own wells and to October 2018 and August 2021, but rising buy water from water tankers at high prices. diesel prices and increasing demand makes the use of trucks increasingly unaffordable, Water quality degradation. The damaged especially for IDPs (prices per cubic meter wastewater system, reduced water flow in range between US$3.97–5.80 in cities like rivers, and over-extraction of ground water Aleppo and Dar’a, and up to US$7.0 in some has impacted water quality. areas of Idlib). There is a risk that water will emerge as a driver of protracted social conflict Water provision relies on electricity, and and unrest. conflict has led to frequent power outages which have shut down water pumping stations All of the cities assessed depend on support and damaged water lines. from international humanitarian or public agencies to restore, maintain and operate Providing water is not only a technical water supplies systems, and to extend them exercise, and Syria’s challenges include a lack to more people. However, water supply of skilled people to operate critical physical is declining at source as river flows in the infrastructure, lack of finance, and weak Euphrates fall, well levels drop, and water financial and asset management. quality and infrastructure decline. There Limitations MAIN LIMITATIONS OF THE ASSESSMENT This qualitative assessment has provided context-disaggregated data for the current situation. However, with better access, more details about the damage to piped drainage, sanitation facilities, water distribution networks and household connections; and descriptions of water treatment plants will be needed to better estimate damage costs. 74 S Y R I A J O I N T D A M A G E A S S E S S M EN T O F S EL E C T ED C I T I E S Cultural Heritage Pre-Crisis Sector Conditions Syria contains some of the most globally Danger, and 11 sites on the World Heritage varied and important cultural heritage sites in Tentative List. It also has a rich national and the Mediterranean, in a place where tangible local heritage, which reflects the diversity of and intangible heritage have intertwined over its people and contributes to the country’s many millennia. This assessment included sense of identity, but this heritage has been data on mosques, churches, convents, devastated. monasteries, shrines, museums, archives, heritage buildings, archaeological sites and the A multi-disciplinary approach to heritage Dead Cities. Syria also has remarkable heritage rehabilitation has been adopted in this housing, and damage to these houses is assessment by considering archaeological, described in the housing section, based on the historical, architectural, technical, sociological, value of these treasures to the Syrian people. economic and environmental elements and impacts. Syria hosts six World Heritage Sites, which are all now on the List of World Heritage in Sectoral Damage Assessment Damage, based on available data, is between two castles that were built between the US$303,660,000 and US$520,560,000. This eleventh and thirteenth centuries as regional assessment includes deep dives on Aleppo, fortifications during the Crusades—to Qal’at Palmyra, and Dead Cities where damage is al-Mudiq, an archaeological tell in the classical highest.41 city of Apamea. As highlighted by the World Monuments Fund, among other inestimable Escalating violence in Syria has devastated losses is Aleppo’s seventeenth-century souk, the country’s cultural heritage sites since engulfed by fire in 2012 to the detriment of 2011, from the ancient souk, or marketplace, its 150 traders. The Great Mosque of Aleppo in Aleppo, to the iconic Crac des Chevaliers— was also damaged by the fire, and its minaret 41 This damage assessment is based on the historical replacement value of totally or partially destroyed assets. I M PA C T O N P H Y S I C A L I N F R A S T R U C T U R E A N D A G R I C U LT U R A L A S S E T S | C ultural H eritage 75 The Syrian government had invested heavily in restoration of Aleppo’s ancient city and historical buildings, with 49 sites reporting some degree of rehabilitation or restoration between 2018 and 2021. In 2018, UNESCO conducted a survey of historic buildings in Aleppo’s Ancient City and identified 56 destroyed, 82 severely damaged, and 270 moderately damaged, out of a total of 436 historic buildings; many of these sites have since undergone at least cosmetic repairs. destroyed in 2013. And in August 2012, the The most affected sites in Aleppo have been the Ayyubid-era entrance to Aleppo’s historic Citadel, Great Mosque, and Historic Markets. citadel—one of the world’s oldest and largest castles, in use for at least 4,000 years—was The Aleppo Citadel is damaged yet functioning. partially destroyed by a missile attack. The citadel, a UNESCO World Heritage site, was one of Syria’s major tourist attractions prior to The destruction of Syria’s most significant 2011. In 2012, the outer gateway was repeatedly and symbolic sites is of urgent concern shelled, and in 2015 an explosion damaged some and has irreversible implications for the of the citadel’s ancient, inner-city walls. country’s historical and architectural legacy. These cultural resources have been The Great Mosque of Aleppo is damaged and highlighted by the global media to raise therefore not open to the public. The Great awareness of threats to this shared heritage Mosque is both a religious and historical site in times of war and conflict, and to galvanize which was built in 717 A.D. by the Umayyad the technical skills and resources of the Caliph Suleyman and contains the tomb of the international community in anticipation of a Prophet Zakaria from the fifteenth century time when it is safe to return to the country. AD. Sadly, the conflict caused a fire and severe damage to the sanctuary and the northern and southern pathways. Aleppo’s Old City has at least 30 historic markets which were active until the conflict began, and as of 2021, high-profile efforts have restored some of these sites to limited functionality. However, satellite images show that much work remains, and the markets’ many merchants, some of whose families have traded there for generations, have not all returned; sadly, the markets now appear to serve largely as tourist attractions or for photo-ops. Box 1 Aleppo 76 S Y R I A J O I N T D A M A G E A S S E S S M EN T O F S EL E C T ED C I T I E S Photo credit: Shutterstock I M PA C T O N P H Y S I C A L I N F R A S T R U C T U R E A N D A G R I C U LT U R A L A S S E T S | C ultural H eritage 77 The Ancient City of Palmyra was destroyed during its occupation in 2015 and 2017. The most seriously damaged sites within the ancient city include the Temple of Bel, the Temple of Baal Shamin, the Arch of Triumph, and columns in the Valley of Tombs. The Palmyra Museum was vandalized and looted42, and reportedly further damaged by airstrikes in 2015. UNESCO and other international actors have offered to rebuild Palmyra’s ancient city. In October 2019 French and Portuguese tourists visited the Ancient City of Palmyra; however, the site is largely destroyed. Box 2 Palmyra The Dead Cities are a cluster of approximately 600 ancient settlements in northwest Syria abandoned between the 8th and 10th centuries. Prior to the crisis, the Syrian Government had worked to promote them as historical and cultural attractions, but these treasures have since been badly degraded through conflict, looting, and squatting. Most damage appears to have been caused by bombing and occupation by IDPs, while looting, vandalism, and illegal excavations have diminished the historical value of sites. Some looters have connections to international black markets. On average, the Dead Cities have sustained moderate to heavy damage during the war, most of which occurred either in the presence of occupying armed forces, or in the vicinity of conflicts at nearby strongholds. Because many of the Dead Cities are in the southern “border” region of Idlib Governorate, many experience low- to mid- level shelling and over-the-horizon attacks. Despite discussions on rehabilitation, there is no evidence that damage assessments or rehabilitation efforts have begun in St. Simeon, Serjilla, or Ebla. Box 3 Dead Cities 42 Allegedly, 3,500 artifacts were sold abroad 78 S Y R I A J O I N T D A M A G E A S S E S S M EN T O F S EL E C T ED C I T I E S DAMAGE TO ASSETS AND includes limited data on mosques, churches, convents, monasteries, shrines, museums, PHYSICAL INFRASTRUCTURE archives, heritage buildings, archaeological sites and the Dead Cities. Cultural heritage in Syria has been badly affected by the crisis. This assessment TABLE 13: DAMAGE INVENTORY (IN US$ MILLION) Low High Size Not Partially Completely Unit Cost Asset Type  Baseline  Unknown  Estimate Estimate Sq m   Damaged  Damaged  Destroyed US$  US$  US$  Mosque  595  576,830 520  41  22  12  500,000  13,440,000  23,040,000  Church  60  41,755  44  6  9  1  750,000  5,985,000  10,260,000  Convent or 4  9,598  4  0  0  0  150,000  0  0  Monastery  Shrine  4  2,498  3  0  1  0  450,000  315,000  540,000  Museum  13  36,081  8  4  1  0  10,000,000  18,200,000  31,200,000  Archive  0  0  0  0  0  0  4,000,000  0  0  Heritage 10  12,735  7  3  0  0  3,000,000  2,520,000  4,320,000  Building  Archaeological 18  93,675  14  4  0  0  10,000,000  11,200,000  19,200,000  site Total  704  773,172  600  58  33  13  n.a.  303,660,000 520,560,000 Dead cities  600   n.a.  300  200  100  0  2,000,000  252,000,000  432,000,000  TABLE 14: CIT Y-LEVEL DAMAGE COST (IN US$ MILLION) City Name  Low Estimate US$  High Estimate US$  Afrin  0  0  Aleppo  10,500,000  18,000,000  Dar’a  1,260,000  2,160,000  Daraya  2,660,000  4,560,000  Deir-ez-Zor  7,035,000  12,060,000  Al Hasakah  140,000  240,000  Homs  1,260,000  2,160,000  Idlib  3,640,000  6,240,000  Manbij  490,000  840,000  Palmyra  14,560,000  24,960,000  Ar-Raqqa 9,205,000  15,780,000  Rastan  280,000  480,000  Tell Abiad  0  0  Zabadani  630,000  1,080,000  Dead cities 252,000,000 432,000,000 Total 303,660,000  520,560,000  I M PA C T O N P H Y S I C A L I N F R A S T R U C T U R E A N D A G R I C U LT U R A L A S S E T S | C ultural H eritage 79 Effects of the Conflict Syria’s World Heritage sites have suffered had much potential for development. With the considerable and sometimes irreparable conflict, this share has dropped nearly to zero, damage. Four of them have been used for with dramatic consequences for the economy, military purposes or turned into battlefields: and the many women and youth who were Palmyra, the Crac des Chevaliers, the Saint preferentially employed in this sector. Lost Simeon Church (part of the UNESCO World employment has been pronounced in the Heritage site of the ancient villages of poorer areas in the northeastern regions Northern Syria), and Aleppo, including the where the Dead Cities are found, and tourists Aleppo Citadel. Archaeological sites have been visited before the crisis. This deprives affected systematically looted and an illicit trade in communities of vital opportunities to develop artefacts has burgeoned. Before the conflict, and sustain their livelihoods, and of sources of the Tourism sector in Syria employed 20 foreign income. percent of the workforce and cultural tourism Photo credit: Shutterstock 80 S Y R I A J O I N T D A M A G E A S S E S S M EN T O F S EL E C T ED C I T I E S Agri-food Value Chains Pre-Crisis Sector Conditions SECTOR CHARACTERISTICS Europe, Central Asia, Russia, and the Gulf Cooperation Council countries.44 Extensive AND CONDITIONS AS PER THE irrigation projects, indirect water subsidies, PREVIOUS DAMAGE ASSESSMENT and direct wheat subsidies led to intensive wheat production in the 1990s. A 2017 Food The agriculture sector (excluding agri- and Agriculture Organization (FAO) report food processing) contributed 20 percent of estimated that 65 percent of cereal production Syria’s GDP in 2010.43 The agricultural labor relied on irrigation in 2011.45 Between 2006 force accounted for 14.5 percent of total and 2010, food prices increased by almost 40 employment in 2010, given that 44 percent of percent, in part due to drought between 2007– Syria’s population lived in rural areas. Prior 2009.46 Prior to the conflict, Syria became to the Syrian conflict, the country played an increasingly reliant on food imports, despite important role in global agricultural trade, the fact that 31 percent of all Syrian exports connecting supply routes between Eastern consisted of agricultural products in 2011.47 Sectoral Damage Assessment In the Syrian Arab Republic, the food security AGGREGATE SECTOR ANALYSIS situation continued to deteriorate in late 2020, with around 12.4 million individuals estimated Aggregate physical damage (overview of what to be acutely food insecure, by far the highest has been assessed, overall damage levels, number ever recorded (WFP, 2021).48 Despite damage by asset type, geographic and sub- the crisis in Syria, agriculture remain a key sector damage trends) part of the economy. The sector accounts 43 https://databank.worldbank.org/views/reports/reportwidget.aspx?Report_ Name=CountryProfile&Id=b450fd57&tbar=y&dd=y&inf=n&zm=n&country=SYR 44 https://carnegieendowment.org/sada/78286 45 http://www.fao.org/3/i7081e/i7081e.pdf 46 https://cadmus.eui.eu/bitstream/handle/1814/65465/MED_WPCS_2019_17.pdf?sequence=1 47 https://www.jadaliyya.com/Details/42366; https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/reverberating-effects- explosive-violence-agriculture-syria 48 WFP, 2021. Syrian Arab Republic Annual Country Report 2020, Country Strategic Plan. 2019 – 2021. Available at https:// docs.wfp.org/api/documents/WFP-0000125415/download/ I M PA C T O N P H Y S I C A L I N F R A S T R U C T U R E A N D A G R I C U LT U R A L A S S E T S | A g ri - f ood Va lu e C hains 81 for 26 percent of GDP and provides a critical communities interviewed) or stopped (41 safety net for 6.7 million Syrians (FAO, 2017). percent; FAO, 2017). In terms of damage, the However, losses in agricultural productivity, highest estimations come from Hasakah (23 following problems with irrigation, movement percent), Aleppo (18 percent) and Raqqah (14 of livestock to neighboring countries, and percent), followed by Deir Ezzor (12 percent) security constraints, have made agricultural and Hama (9 percent; FAO, 2017). Based on livelihoods increasingly precarious. These the FAO’s survey of the four Governorates challenges have been exacerbated by the accounting for most irrigated land before the abrupt breakdown of centralized agriculture crisis, 50 to 95 percent of households reported support systems for crops and livestock, and a damage to their irrigation equipment and bad fire season in 2019. physical infrastructure. Furthermore, overall food imports have fallen by approximately 43 Vast areas of agricultural land under annual percent since the start of the crisis. and perennial crops have been destroyed, and farmers are facing shortages of agricultural inputs (seeds, fertilizers, fuel for irrigation DAMAGE TO ASSETS AND pumps, etc.), or are unable to afford them PHYSICAL INFRASTRUCTURE due to soaring prices (FAO, 2017). The situation has been compounded by climate The Syrian war has resulted in at least US$3.4 change. Prior to the crisis, the Government billion in damage49 and US$12.9–18.1 billion in subsidized agriculture, but this support losses to the agri-food sector. 50 was significantly withdrawn (44 percent of TABLE 10: DAMAGE AND LOSSES IN THE AGRICULTUR AL SECTOR (US$) Physical Infrastructure Asset Type Damage - Low estimate Damage - High estimate Silos 58,717,101 82,203,942 Agricultural infrastructure and assets, 3,200,000,000 3,200,000,000 including irrigation51 Wholesale markets 428,343 599,680 Losses (2010–2019) – Losses (2010–2019) – Agricultural Production Low estimate High estimate Perennial Crops 2,289,390,199 3,205,146,279 Annual Crops 7,982,404,070 11,175,365,698 Livestock 2,535,942,000 3,550,318,800 Aquaculture 103,162,022.12 144,426,830.96 49 The low and high damage estimates for the agricultural sector are similar because such estimates for irrigation systems are fixed across estimation ranges, based on publicly available estimates provided by the FAO and cleared by the government. 50 (1) the urban-related data provides estimates for the selected cities whereas the rural estimates provide the impact on the national scale, (2) the damage of the irrigation system had a spillover effect on the ag production beyond the area of damage; (3) damage in the agricultural output attributable to the conflict is difficult to separate from those caused by climate change or natural variability. 51 Agricultural infrastructures and assets include many elements in different subsectors, including cooperative and government buildings (research, administrative and support offices), markets and agro-bank offices, commercial farms, veterinary clinics and animal sheds, greenhouses and storage facilities, production or transformation facilities (e.g. seed processing, dairy or meat processing plants, fertilizer factories, etc.) and tractors, trucks and other machinery and equipment for post-harvest processing (FAO, 2017). 82 S Y R I A J O I N T D A M A G E A S S E S S M EN T O F S EL E C T ED C I T I E S Effects of the Conflict CROPLANDS conflict has led to intentional fires targeting agricultural land. Between 2010 and 2019 crops registered the largest share of lost production in The map below (Figure 28) shows that plant the agricultural sector (annual crops health deteriorated between 2011 and 2020 US$7.9–11.1 billion; perennial crops in key agricultural production areas (increase US$2.2–3.2 billion). Rainfed cropland has in plant health is depicted in green, while remained productive compared to irrigated decreased plant health is depicted in purple). cropland over 2011–2021, largely due to A literature review revealed that many farmers extensive damage to irrigation equipment stopped crop production entirely due to high and water scarcity (Figure 27). According prices of inputs and insecurity. to a FAO (2017) survey, between 50 and 95 percent of households reported damage Over 25 percent of households overall (and 70 to their irrigation equipment and physical percent in Raqqah and Deir Ezzor) reported infrastructure. Loss of functionality was lacking seeds, and more than 50 percent also observed. For example, after repairs lacked access to fertilizers, while 35 percent do in 2018, Al-Tabqa Dam was undamaged as not use fertilizers at all (FAO, 2017). Based on of 2020 and under the control of Kurdish FAOSTAT data, average nitrogen use decreased Syrian Democratic Forces,52 but low water by 83 percent, while that of potash decreased levels reduced irrigation to around 86 000 ha. by 75 percent during 2011–2019 compared In 2021, non-profit media reported farmer to 2005–2010. Diesel shortages have also claims that wheat and vegetables had suffered increased the cost of growing crops, and from lack of irrigation water.53 Moreover, the the cost of diesel alone sometimes exceeds farmer’s profits.54 FIGURE 27: CHANGE IN NORMALIZED DIFFERENCE VEGETATION INDEX (NDVI), IRRIGATION AND R AINFED CROPL AND, 2011–2021 52 Hasan Al-Kassab, 2021, Syria Direct, < https://syriadirect.org/as-the-level-of-the-euphrates-river-drops-syrian-civilians- on-its-banks-pay-the-price/> 53 Hussam al-Omar, 2021, Enab Baladi, < https://www.enabbaladi.net/archives/517093> 54 Syria.tv, 2021, ‫ ومخاوف من أزمة غذائية‬% 70 ‫ تراجع زراعة الخضار والفواكه بنسبة‬..‫سوريا‬ I M PA C T O N P H Y S I C A L I N F R A S T R U C T U R E A N D A G R I C U LT U R A L A S S E T S | A g ri - f ood Va lu e  C hains 83 FIGURE 28: MEDIAN NDVI CHANGE, FIGURE 29: CHANGE IN NDVI IN 2011–2020 AGRICULTUR AL AREAS, 2011–2021 Source: WB Estimates While some improvements have been degradation decreased from 916,519 ha (46 observed in recent years, agricultural percent of total area in 2014–2017 compared production continues to be adversely to the baseline 2001–2013) to 207,459 ha affected by the conflict. Based on Ministry (10 percent of total area) in Aleppo.55 Over of Agriculture data, and following declines the same period, more fires led to losses in wheat production from 2010–2018, in croplands e.g. based on remote sensing improvements in production in irrigated and estimates, in 2019 around 803,523 ha were non-irrigated areas have occurred in recent burned, while in 2020 around 132,847 ha were years. For example, wheat production in burned, compared to 47,846 ha in 2010. 2021 was estimated at around 1.05 million tons, down from 2.8 million in 2020, and significantly less than the pre-crisis average LIVESTOCK AND PASTURE of 4.1 million (during 2002–2011; FAO, 2021). AREAS However, because of low and scattered rainfall in 2020/21, heatwaves, the cost of inputs, lack The livestock sector suffered high losses of irrigation water, and the high cost of fuel due to the crisis, amounting to US$2.5–3.5 for pumping, the harvestable cereal area was billion from 2011–2019. Based on FAOSTAT significantly reduced (FAO, 2021). For example, data, a 30 percent decrease was observed in the harvested wheat area was slightly over cattle numbers, and in February 2021 a non- half of the area harvested in 2019, and the profit media report estimated that between harvested barley area was about 75 percent 40 and 50 percent of poultry and 50 percent less than the previous year (FAO, 2021). of livestock (sheep and cows) had died or been lost through smuggling.56 The Syrian Ministry Based on remote sensing data analysis of Agriculture also reported declines in the conducted by UrbAN-S, human-induced land number and production of livestock across the 55 Land productivity is assessed using three measures of change derived from NDVI time series data: trajectory, performance, and state, measuring the rate of change in primary production over time. An advanced model is used to remove the effects of climate on the NDVI time series to derive a Human Induced Land Degradation estimate. Residual Trend Analysis (RESTREND) uses linear regression models to predict NDVI for a given rainfall amount. Trends in the difference between predicted and observed NDVI are interpreted as non-climate related changes in productivity. The change in human induced land degradation for rural areas is calculated for 2001–2013 and used as a baseline compared to the intense conflict period (2013–2017) and 2017–2020. 56 https://baladi-news.com/ar/articles 84 S Y R I A J O I N T D A M A G E A S S E S S M EN T O F S EL E C T ED C I T I E S country from 2010–2019.57 Cattle owners and goods. Increases in the cost of transport breeders face soaring prices in oil derivatives, and diesel shortages have made it difficult feed, and other supplies, and loss of animals for many farmers to transport their goods to conflict or abandonment by fleeing farmers. to city markets.59 In some cases, according to local media, farmers have lost produce The sector suffered further when the Syrian to spoilage after failing to obtain diesel,60 lira depreciated rapidly, and animal feed and diesel shortages have also affected cold became less affordable in 2019. Analysis storage, lowering the quality of produce of NDVI from pastureland58 showed and reducing sellers’ margins.61 According to relatively consistent pasture health across anecdotal evidence, farmers from opposition- all governorates between 2011 and 2015; controlled areas may pay up to 25 percent however, between 2015 and 2018 it declined of their products’ value in tax when entering in all governorates except Hasakah, and then government-controlled areas to sell produce.62 improved again after a strong rainy season in 2020, particularly in Damascus. The wheat-to-bread market in southern Syria was critically disrupted when the government cut off services to opposition-controlled AGRI-FOOD VALUE CHAINS areas at the beginning of the conflict in 2011. This led to shortages of flour and bread that OPERATIONS continue today, compounded by the effects of prolonged conflict (RFSAN, 2021). In 2021, The functionality of agri-food value chains an assessment of 320 bakeries and 61 mills in was significantly distorted by the conflict. northeast Syria (Aleppo, Hasakah, Raqqah, and Syria’s wholesale vegetable markets have been Deir Ezzor) found that the mills’ functionality damaged, with 82 percent of markets assessed stood at 47 percent and that operational either partially damaged or destroyed in bakeries were producing at 41 percent of their the conflict. Local media report that local potential (RFSAN, 2021). Overall, 180 bakeries farmers have found it increasingly difficult to and 35 mills require maintenance of their transport their products to wholesale markets equipment and/or buildings, with damage to due to security checkpoints, fuel prices, and silos estimated at US$59–82 million. other increases in the cost of transporting Limitations The major limitation is that studies are based difficult to fully capture damage and losses primarily on remote sensing and secondary to processing and storage facilities, farming data from interviews and existing reports, equipment, and vehicles (e.g., tractors), and without field validation. Additionally, declines estimates rely on FAO (2017) data. The damage in production attributable to the conflict are assessment of silos and wholesale markets is difficult to separate from those caused by based on remote sensing data and secondary climate change or natural variability. Because literature. fieldwork was not always possible, it was 57 http://moaar.gov.sy/main/archives/23338 58 Pastureland was identified based on the 2020 Final Country Report of the Land Degradation Neutrality Target-Setting Programme submitted to the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification. https://knowledge.unccd.int/sites/ default/files/ldn_targets/2020-08/Syria%20LDN%20TSP%20Final%20Report%20%28English%29.pdf 59 http://ouruba.alwehda.gov.sy/investigations 60 ibid 61 ibid 62 https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2018/10/syria-aleppo-market-turkey-import-export.html I M PA C T O N S O C I A L  S E C TO R S 85 Photo credit: Shutterstock IMPACT ON SOCIAL SECTORS 86 S Y R I A J O I N T D A M A G E A S S E S S M EN T O F S EL E C T ED C I T I E S Housing Pre-Crisis Sector Conditions Before the war, and following decades of Formal housing supply catered to an upper inefficiencies along the housing production market clientele, pushing more than a third of value chain, the national housing shortage in Syrians into informal housing arrangements. Syria reached approximately 700,000 units.63 Formal housing provided by the private sector The average annual housing deficit reached up was expensive, and unaffordable to low- and to 130,000 housing units.64 The formal housing middle-income buyers. At the same time, supply was unresponsive to the increased the supply of social housing lagged. High demand triggered by urbanization, population vacancy rates, which reached 15 percent in growth, inter-city migration, demographic some cities, attested to a mismatch between shifts, and the influx of IDPs and refugees supply and demand, and unhealthy housing from regional conflicts. The housing gap market dynamics. As a result, low- and middle- was significant compared to the four million income families continued to invest in informal houses in Syria’s 14 governorates.65 housing despite more severe repercussions. Roughly 38 percent of the population Historically, most houses in Syria were built lived in informal housing, and while such by the private sector. Seventy-seven percent arrangements are recognized and primarily of housing was produced by individuals, serviced by the state, they are not legally building contractors, or small real estate guaranteed, and lack security of tenure.66 developers. The other 23 percent was co- produced through the social housing program by the General Housing Establishment (GHE), founded in 1961, and the housing cooperatives system, first regulated in 1950. 63 Housing shortage from the Five-year National Development Plan (2005–2010). Oxford Business Group (2011). 64 The Syria Report: Paper – The Housing Crisis in Syria: Do Social Housing and Housing Cooperatives Still Have a Role? 65 2010 Syrian census data- Syria Central Bureau of Statistics. 66 More information about housing, land and property rights can be found in the “Mobility of Displaced Syrians” report. I M PA C T O N S O C I A L  S E C TO R S | H ousing 87 Sectoral Damage Assessment Across the 14 cities it is estimated that the war Nearly a third of the city’s neighborhoods were has affected up to 210,000 housing units, with badly damaged, directly affecting 1.82 million total damage reaching US$2.3-2.8 billion. The residents. Out of 109 neighborhoods, 33 were remote assessment classified approximately heavily damaged, and 84 were affected. Most 30,000 units as totally destroyed, and up to damage is in the eastern part of the city and 180,000 units as partially damaged. A large the Old City’s neighborhoods of Al Mansour, share of Aleppo’s housing stock has been Al Ameen, Al Mahdi, and Al Rasheed. Forty destroyed, with up to 135,000 housing units percent of Aleppo’s housing is informal, and 87 damaged during the conflict, representing 21 percent of this typology was affected. percent of housing stock in the city and around 70 percent of all damaged housing stock across Dara’a the 14 cities. Daraya has lost most houses Dara’a’s housing stock is badly damaged; relative to its original housing stock, with up to of an estimated baseline of 31,000 housing 43 percent of its housing stock damaged. units, up to 11,000 units have been damaged, representing 36 percent of the city’s housing Given that Syria is highly urbanized, the stock. The damage cost is estimated between salient typology is apartment buildings of US$112–137 million. various sizes and heights. The conflict mostly impacted this category; it is estimated that The southern area of Albalad received most of up to 184,000 apartment units have been the damage in the city, including the old city damaged to some extent in the sampled cities, and the Dara’a camp. Damage is much worse while up to 29,000 single-family homes were in informal housing areas. The northern part destroyed in the same period. Informal areas of the city has suffered the least damage, and were disproportionately impacted by the has become overcrowded as people have conflict, worsening the conditions for people moved there. living in them. Homs While the assessment doesn’t quantify Homs’s housing baseline is estimated at 216,000 damage to historic housing, it is estimated that units, of which up to 27,000 units are estimated this is severe, given the location of historic to be damaged or destroyed, representing 12 buildings in city centers where much of the percent of the city’s housing stock. 74 percent conflict took place. of the inhabitants of Homs were affected by housing damage to some extent. The damage cost in the city is estimated between US$277– CITY-LEVEL ANALYSIS IN 339 million. SELECTED CITIES67 (ALEPPO, DARA’A, HOMS, AND DER AZZOR) Out of 36 neighborhoods, 18 were heavily damaged, 8 partially damaged, and 10 had minor damage. Neighborhoods including Aleppo Bab al-Siba’a, Bab ad-Draib, Bab Amr, With an estimated baseline of 660,000 housing al-Bayada, al-Hamidiyah, al-Qusour, al- units, Aleppo leads in terms of damage, with Shayyah, al-Qarabis, and Khalidiya have up to 137,000 units damaged in the conflict, been significantly damaged. It is estimated of which 22,000 were destroyed. Costs are that 40 percent of housing units in Homs are estimated between 1.5–1.9 billion. 67 Cities were selected for balanced geographic representation between north, middle, south and east regions, and for significance of impact. 88 S Y R I A J O I N T D A M A G E A S S E S S M EN T O F S EL E C T ED C I T I E S informal, and that 69 percent of the heavy Neighborhoods with severe damage are damage occurred in informal areas. Tashreen, Hitteen, and Al Ba’ajeen, while the most affected neighborhoods by number of Deir Ezzor damaged units are Othmania, Hitten, Abo Pre-conflict, Deir Ezzor had a housing stock of Abed, and Al Hamidia. Thirty-five percent of over 48,000 units, of which up to 8,000 have housing units in Der Azzor lack permanent been impacted, representing 16 percent of records and fall under the informal category housing stock. The damage cost is estimated (including 4 percent squatters and 4 percent at US$78–95 million. with temporary records). DAMAGE TO ASSETS AND PHYSICAL INFRASTRUCTURE TABLE 11: DAMAGE INVENTORY (IN US$ MILLION) Total Total Partially Partially Completely Asset Type Baseline Damage- Damage- Damaged Damaged- Unit cost Total Cost Destroyed low high - low high Apartment 2,009– 1,010,416 81,504 183,883 55,263 157,643 26,240 Average Unit 2,456 unit size 120 sq/m Single X Average Family 107,478 12,929 29,120 8,831 25,022 4,098 sq/m cost 317-388 House of US$ 208 2,327– 1,117,894 94,433 213,003 64,095 182,665 30,338 2,844 TABLE 12: CIT Y-LEVEL DAMAGE COST (IN US$ MILLION) City Name Damage Cost - Low Estimate Damage Cost - High Estimate Aleppo 1,528 1,868 Dara’a 112 137 Deir Ezzor 78 95 Hasakah 27 33 Homs 277 339 Raqqah 135 165 Manbij 5 6 Afrin 1 1 Palmyra 8 10 Idlib 95 116 Daraya 52 63 Zabadani 2 2 Rastan 5 6 Tell Abyad 2 2 Total 2,327 2,844 I M PA C T O N S O C I A L  S E C TO R S | H ousing 89 Not only were living conditions in the Northeast worse than elsewhere in the country, but Photo credit: World Bank they had worsened during the pre-conflict period. Effects of the Conflict Syria entered the conflict with a growing It is widely known that the conflict housing shortage and more than a third of disproportionately impacted informal areas, its population living in informal housing with and that weak security of tenure in these weak security of tenure. The Conflict-induced areas may significantly affect residents’ rights damage to housing and neighborhoods, and access to housing in their place of origin, collapse in basic services, protracted especially under the current institutional displacement, loss of civil and property and legal framework. Extensive urban rights documents, limited functionality of development projects proposed for damaged the cadaster system, land contamination, informal settlements through expropriation and explosive remnants of war (ERW) have or land readjustment may threaten occupants amplified these housing and tenure issues. of informal housing with eviction and confiscation of property. Limitations This assessment was performed remotely, (1:2), medium (1:4), and high (1:6) ratio of and assessed neighborhoods for damage destruction to damage are provided to to different housing classes based account for the sampling methodology. on representative samples for each Findings are recorded in a tabular dataset and neighborhood and asset type. The Destroyed the total damage level shown is the one best percentage is derived from imagery-based supported by PAI. The number of damaged percentage damage for each neighborhood; buildings should be taken as a minimum as the the Partially Damaged percentage is assessed percentage-based assessment methodology is as a ratio of destruction to damage, and likely to underestimate the overall damage to further validated through sample-based housing stock. imagery analysis. Estimates of a low 90 S Y R I A J O I N T D A M A G E A S S E S S M EN T O F S EL E C T ED C I T I E S Health Pre-Crisis Health Sector Conditions The delivery of health services for all infrastructure was comparable to other conditions including trauma and non- countries in the region. In 2010, the number communicable diseases remains a challenge. of hospital beds per 1000 persons was 1.236, Most health workers (70 percent) have compared with 2018 figures of 1.232 for Iraq, left the country, and more than half of 1.839 for Lebanon, and 1.504 for Jordan. 74.5 health infrastructure has been damaged or percent of the Syrian population could reach a destroyed, greatly limiting the availability health facility within 30 minutes. of care. Prior to the conflict, Syria’s health Sectoral Damage Assessment AGGREGATE SECTOR ANALYSIS facilities have more damage. 48 facilities have increased functionality and 16 have reduced For the Health sector, the Damage Assessment functionality. Damage is estimated at US$347– covers 364 public and private facilities in US$425 million. 14 cities, serving clinical and non-clinical functions, and 12 types of health facilities. Health sector damage varies widely across The Assessment shows that 20 percent of the 14 cities. To illustrate this, Figure 31 health facilities are partially damaged, while shows the location and extent of damage for 8 percent are totally destroyed; 28 percent health facilities in Aleppo. Figure 32 shows of health facilities are partially functioning the physical status and functionality of health and 3 percent do not function at all, while facilities in the 14 cities. Damage to facilities drug and equipment shortages are widely ranges from none in Al Hasakah to 75 percent reported to reduce functionality. Nine cities in Palmyra, while reduced functionality ranges included in this assessment were also part from none in Zabadani and Tell Abiad to 88 of the 2018 damage assessment: Afrin, percent in Daraya. These figures indicate the Aleppo, Dar’a, Deir-ez-Zor, Homs, Idlib, Manbij, varying impacts of the war in different parts of Palmyra, and Ar-Raqqa. Compared to 2018, the country. 68 health facilities have less damage, while 9 I M PA C T O N S O C I A L   S E C TO R S | H ealth 91 FIGURE 30: DAMAGE AND FUNCTIONALIT Y BY FACILIT Y T YPE FIGURE 31: ALEPPO HEALTH FACILITIES AND DAMAGE STATUS FIGURE 32: DAMAGE AND FUNCTIONALIT Y BY CIT Y DAMAGE FUNCTIONALITY Aleppo 14 31 77 6 27 2 95 4 Dar'a 2 11 6 4 2 11 2 Deir Ezzor 7 16 20 27 1 15 Hasakah 15 1 12 2 Homs 2 3 59 1 13 2 39 11 Raqqah 3 11 14 13 2 12 1 Manbij 1 7 2 6 Afrin 5 1 5 Palmyra 1 2 1 3 1 Idlib 1 18 2 3 2 16 Daraya 1 1 5 1 7 1 Zabadani 1 4 3 6 2 Rastan 2 4 1 1 3 1 Tell Abyad 2 3 5 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Completely Destroyed Partially Damaged No Damage Unknown Not Functioning Partially Functioning Functioning Unknown 92 S Y R I A J O I N T D A M A G E A S S E S S M EN T O F S EL E C T ED C I T I E S FIGURE 33: ACCESSIBILIT Y ANALYSIS - ALEPPO Access to health facilities was also assessed. between October 2018 and June 2021, with 12 Using geospatial data and road maps, the time percent of facilities showing signs of repair. required and ease of road access to reach Two facilities remain inaccessible because of the nearest health facility was calculated for road damage, while at least 69 are accessible. each neighborhood in the 14 cities. Figure 33 illustrates this analysis for Aleppo in which Dar’a. Out of 19 facilities, two are partially 6.4 percent of facilities (out of 188) were damaged and the status of six is unknown. inaccessible and 1.1 percent were only partially Eleven are functioning, two are partially accessible because of damage to roads. 11 functioning, and four are not functional. percent of the population of the 14 cities are Eleven facilities remain accessible by road. unable to reach a health care facility within 30 Though most facilities are undamaged and minutes, and 23 percent are unable to reach functional, Dar’a al-Balad’s sole medical center one within 20 minutes. was closed due to violence and threats. Deir-ez-Zor. Out of 43 facilities, 16 are partially CITY-LEVEL ANALYSIS damaged and seven destroyed. Fifteen are functioning, one is partially functioning, Aleppo. Out of 128 facilities, 45 are damaged and 27 are not functional. Although an (31 partially damaged and 14 completely assessment of publicly available information destroyed). The status of six facilities is and satellite imagery suggests 40 percent of unknown. 95 facilities are functioning, health facilities in Deir-ez-Zor have registered two are partially functioning and 27 are damage decreases, access to medical care nonfunctional. There is evidence from satellite remains sparse. Many medical facilities are not imagery and publicly available information functioning at all, and those which do function of reconstruction in Aleppo’s Health sector lack resources, or primarily serve military forces. I M PA C T O N S O C I A L   S E C TO R S | H ealth 93 Al Hasakah. The Health sector is largely to a video interview on Facebook, there is functioning, though its stability is threatened no functioning kidney dialysis or computer by rising COVID-19 rates. Al Hasakah’s 15 tomography equipment in Palmyra. facilities are undamaged. Out of these 15 facilities, 12 are functioning and one is non- Idlib. One out of 21 health facilities is functional, while the status of two is unknown. damaged, the second lowest damage rating. However, widespread road damage renders Homs: Although Homs’ Health sector has seven facilities with known coordinates largely recovered from the conflict, the city’s inaccessible. Three facilities show repairs largest pre-crisis health facility, the 800-bed since 2018, while none have new damage. Homs National Hospital, remains destroyed. Five health facilities were non-functioning or Out of 65 facilities, 59 are undamaged; five are partially-functioning, at least one of which was damaged with two facilities destroyed. At least undamaged but closed its doors due to lack of 39 facilities function, while 13 are non-functional funding. and 41 are accessible by road. COVID-19 revealed the sector’s fundamental weakness, as Daraya. Seven out of eight health facilities hospitals were rapidly overwhelmed and basic were non-functioning or partially-functioning, treatment costs rose steeply. the highest percentage. Two facilities were damaged. Limited health services despite Ar-Raqqa: Approximately half the facilities only moderate damage may be linked to have some level of damage: 14 out of 28 are high out-migration from Daraya in 2016, and damaged, and three have been destroyed; an estimated 95 percent population decline only 12 are functional, and 13 are not from 2010–2019. In July 2021, a new clinic functional. offered free medical care according to pro- government media. Manbij: The Health sector is largely undamaged by conflict and appears to be Zabadani. One out of eight health facilities is functioning, although COVID-19 is impacting damaged, but all six facilities for which there healthcare across the city. Out of eight is evidence are functioning. Media reports facilities, seven are undamaged and six are indicate that several health facilities were functional. damaged and closed, but have now been rehabilitated. Zabadani National Hospital was Afrin. One out of the six health facilities was the first to be designated a special quarantine damaged in June 2021. No facilities have been center for COVID-19 in government-controlled repaired or further damaged since 2018, areas. though pro-government media reported the opening of a new hospital. One other health Rastan. Two out of six health facilities are facility was not functioning. Road damage damaged and non- or partially-functioning, has not rendered any facilities inaccessible. leaving the city without any confirmed Reports of attacks and kidnappings of medical functioning hospitals. Many patients travel to staff are numerous. Homs for care. Palmyra. Three out of the four health facilities Tell Abiad. Two out of five health facilities were damaged, the highest rate across the are partially damaged, but all health facilities 14 cities. According to state media, one are fully functioning. A 2019 Health sector facility has been repaired, with an emphasis assessment found that the city had no CT on the obstetrics department, the hospital scanners and only one dialysis center. Turkish administration building, and backup electricity media claims that Turkey has expanded sector generation. Three out of the four health capacity by building and staffing new medical facilities had reduced functionality. According centers and a new hospital in Tel Abyad. 94 S Y R I A J O I N T D A M A G E A S S E S S M EN T O F S EL E C T ED C I T I E S DAMAGE TO ASSETS AND PHYSICAL INFRASTRUCTURE TABLE 15: DAMAGE INVENTORY (IN US$ MILLION) Total Partially Unit cost in Total Cost in Asset Type Baseline Destroyed Damaged Damaged US$ million US$ million Health Administration 2 0 0 0 0.4–0.5 0.0–0.0 Building Hospital (Unknown) 1 90 50 0 13.0–15.9 0.0–0.0 Medical Center 90 25 19 6 0.4–0.5 5.5–6.7 Medical Point 3 3 3 0 0.4–0.5 0.5–0.6 Medical Training 2 0 0 0 0.4–0.5 0.0–0.0 Center Pharmacy/Dispensary 2 1 0 1 0.1–0.1 0.1–0.1 Polyclinic 5 3 1 2 0.4–0.5 1.0–1.2 Private Hospital 198 54 39 15 2.4–3.0 74.4–90.9 Public Hospital 46 13 10 3 33.9–41.5 237.6–290.4 Rehabilitation Center 0 0 0 0 0.4–0.5 0.0–0.0 Specialized Medical 15 3 2 1 15.0–18.3 26.9–32.9 Center Teaching Hospital 0 0 0 0 0.0–0.0 0.0–0.0 Total Effect 345.9–422.8 TABLE 16: CIT Y-LEVEL DAMAGE COST (IN US$ MILLION) Effects of City Name Aleppo Damage Cost 127.4–155.7 the Conflict Dar’a 13.7–16.8 The crisis has had a significant impact on Deir-ez-Zor 40.7–49.7 service delivery, and Syria’s health indicators are below both their pre-crisis values Al Hasakah 0.0–0.0 and those of comparator countries. Life Homs 39.3–-48.0 expectancy in Syria is approximately 72 years, Ar-Raqqa 46.0–56.2 having fallen below its pre-crisis figure of 75 years, and that of comparable countries and Manbij 0.2–0.2 the MENA average of 74 years. Similarly, infant Afrin 13.6–16.6 mortality, estimated at 17.92 infant deaths Palmyra 13.8–16.9 per 1,000 live births, has remained the same. Idlib 1.0–1.2 Health care has been affected by conflict, damage, loss of functionality, low investment Daraya 16.0–19.6 and rising poverty, all of which place it further Zabadani 0.2–0.2 out of reach. As an example, measles vaccine Rastan 14.5–17.8 second dose coverage MCV-2 dropped from 82 percent in 2010 to 53 percent in 2020; and Tell Abiad 19.6–23.9 by mid-2021 Syria had 15,403 hospital beds i.e. Total 345.9–422.8 I M PA C T O N S O C I A L   S E C TO R S | H ealth 95 8.8 per 10,000 residents, far below the SPHERE percent from Damascus, and 21.4 percent standard of 18 beds per 10,000. from North East Syria (NES). During the same period, 3,929 related deaths were Almost one third of facilities in the 14 cities are also reported. The COVID-19 vaccination reported to be either partially functional or roll out has been very slow, with only 13.7 non-functional. Most non-functional facilities percent of the population expected to be have also been damaged, with almost 28 vaccinated by the end of 2021. Only 482,196 percent damaged or destroyed. While direct people (2.6 percent of the population) have hits to physical infrastructure decreased received the first dose of vaccination, while in 2020 compared to previous years (eight only 290,221 (1.6 percent of the population) attacks were reported in 2020 injuring three are fully vaccinated. health workers), the security situation caused an exodus of service providers, and a shortage It is also important to note some of the of medical personnel to deal with growing improvements in service delivery reported demand. Declining services have led to an over the last year. The Health Cluster HeRAMS increase in communicable diseases, the most exercise reported an 8 percent increase in common of which are an influenza-like illness, hospitals providing Comprehensive Emergency diarrhea and leishmaniasis. The difficulty Obstetric and Neonatal care (CEmONC) of reaching health facilities, and equipment services, a 3 percent increase in hospitals and medicine shortages have affected providing Surgery/Trauma services, and an 8 service delivery, with 6.4 percent of 188 percent increase in facilities providing Blood facilities inaccessible and 1.1 percent partially Bank Services between the first quarterly accessible. periods of 2020 and 2021. However, over the same period an alarming 33 percent decrease The COVID-19 pandemic has further weakened in facilities providing Cancer Diagnosis/ the health system in Syria. Between March Treatment, and a 2 percent decrease in 2020 and September 2021, there were 115,349 facilities providing TB Diagnosis/Treatment cases of COVID-19, of which 52 percent were was also reported. reported from North West Syria (NWS), 26.4 Limitations of the Assessment The operational environment for data The assessment team was able to mitigate collection was constrained in the following these limitations using satellite imagery, and ways: first, the local context has made it publicly available information (PAI), including difficult to ground-truth damage/functionality social media monitoring, and information and data, and thus, there are no damage data for guidance from partners on the ground. The 19 percent of facilities, or functionality data unavailability of accurate pre-conflict cost for 6 percent of facilities; second, the lack of data in the Health sector required estimations local data has constrained analysis; and third, from multiple sources to assess the costs the control of different parts of the country of damage. Thus, while the findings in this by different entities has made data collection assessment have been corroborated in as far and analysis more complex; lastly, the limited as this is possible, they should be considered availability of pre-conflict data makes it indicative. difficult to assess the effects of conflict on delivery of health services and their utilization. 96 S Y R I A J O I N T D A M A G E A S S E S S M EN T O F S EL E C T ED C I T I E S Education Pre-Crisis Sector Conditions Before the conflict, Syria was on the verge 2.5 million children, or one-in-three of the of achieving its education targets under school-age population (ages 5–17), were already the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).  out of school by the end of 2019.68 As families In 2009/2010, primary school enrollment stood try to cope with the impacts of the conflict, at 93 percent, equal to the average for the children - in particular boys - have had to seek MENA region, and 67 percent for secondary informal labor to meet their families’ essential school, exceeding the MENA average of 60 needs. Out-of-school children are particularly percent. Learning outcomes in Syria were vulnerable to exploitative child labor, child below international averages, but higher than marriage and recruitment into military forces. 82 in most MENA countries. In the 2007 Trends in percent of communities perceived child labor Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS), Syria as a key factor preventing school attendance.69 ranked 32 and 39 out of 49 countries in eighth Loss of schooling also deprives children of grade science and mathematics, respectively.   health, clean water, and sanitation services offered through schools. In addition, COVID-19 The Syrian civil war has deprived millions of is increasingly bringing education to a halt for children of education and destroyed much of many of Syria’s children after over ten years of the social fabric of the country. An estimated conflict, displacement and poverty.  Sectoral Damage Assessment AGGREGATE SECTOR ANALYSIS (i.e., 245 education facilities). About 22 percent of primary schools (i.e., 110 schools) Overall, 1,367 education facilities were and 16 percent of secondary schools (i.e.,30 assessed. 18 percent of these have been schools) have been partially damaged or fully either partially damaged or fully destroyed destroyed, and 10 of the 49 assessed colleges/ 68 Joint Education Needs Assessment for Out of School Children North West Syria; Assistance Coordination Unit, Save the Children, Syria Response Education Cluster; December 2019.  69 Humanitarian Needs Overview for Syrian Arab Republic; Humanitarian Programme Cycle; OCHA, March 2021. I M PA C T O N S O C I A L   S E C TO R S | E ducation 97 FIGURE 34: PHYSICAL STATUS OF EDUCATION SECTOR BY FACILIT Y/ASSET T YPE 100% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 90% 80% 20 70% 40 60% 382 46 39 155 394 50% 7 40% 33 30% 6 20% 27 4 5 4 10% 13 16 83 26 7 6 2 45 0% 1 0 Primary school Secondary school Vocational school Primary and College/University Pre-K/Kindergarten Education Office Unknown (445) (500) (187) (59) Secondary (64) (49) (56) (7) Partially Damaged Completely Destroyed No Damage Unknown FIGURE 35: OPER ATIONAL STATUS OF EDUCATION SECTOR BY FACILIT Y/ASSET T YPE 100% 6 5 0 0 0 2 22 8 1 90% 94 33 16 0 0 12 18 80% 4 2 0 181 70% 0 2 1 60% 2 50% 54 6 40% 395 147 43 33 30% 35 243 20% 10% 0% Primary school Secondary school Vocational school Primary and College/University Pre-K/Kindergarten Education Office Unknown Secondary school Functioning Partially Functioning Not Functioning Unknown universities have been partially damaged damaged (11 percent) or fully destroyed or fully destroyed. 70 percent of education (5 percent); 73 percent are functioning, facilities across all cities are functional, while 24 percent are not functioning or partially 25 percent of education facilities are not functioning, and the status of those remaining operational. The remaining share represents is unknown. An additional 38 education facilities for which the status is unknown.  facilities have been destroyed since the last damage assessment. The image below shows the location of damaged and partially CITY-LEVEL ANALYSIS damaged facilities in Aleppo. Aleppo Dar’a In Aleppo, 525 education facilities were In Dar’a, 137 education facilities were assessed, the largest number in any of the assessed, of which 26 percent have been cities. Of these, 16 percent have been either either partially damaged (21 percent) or fully 98 S Y R I A J O I N T D A M A G E A S S E S S M EN T O F S EL E C T ED C I T I E S FIGURE 36: PHYSICAL STATUS OF EDUCATION SECTOR BY CIT Y 100% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 3 90% 80% 3 19 70% 65 101 14 11 60% 21 424 13 16 69 278 50% 58 10 10 11 40% 17 30% 0 7 20% 2 45 24 2 14 4 10% 29 1 57 3 3 1 1 3 6 1 0% 1 0 Afrin (17) Aleppo Dara’a Daraya Deir Ezzor Hasakah Homs Idlib Manbij Palmyra Raqqah Rastan Tell Abyad Zabadani (525) (137) (19) (120) (71) (287) (58) (26) (23) (44) (15) (10) (15) Partially Damaged Completely Destroyed No Damage Unknown FIGURE 37: OPER ATIONAL STATUS OF EDUCATION SECTOR BY CIT Y 100% 18 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 2 0 6 90% 4 17 70 2 3 5 121 38 4 80% 46 0 0 1 1 3 0 0 0 70% 8 0 60% 0 9 20 26 50% 56 24 40% 12 383 97 217 11 11 46 7 30% 0 74 20% 3 6 10% 1 7 2 0% Afrin Aleppo Dara’a Daraya Deir Ezzor Hasakah Homs Idlib Manbij Palmyra Raqqah Rastan Tell Abyad Zabadani Functioning Partially Functioning Not Functioning Unknown destroyed (5 percent), and 28 percent (38 of schools are not operational, most of which facilities) are not operational. The majority of are primary schools. non-functioning facilities are primary schools. Since the previous damage assessment, six Al Hasakah education facilities have been damaged. In Al Hasakah, 71 education facilities were assessed. Only two facilities have been Deir-ez-Zor partially damaged or destroyed, and 65 In Deir-ez-Zor, 120 education facilities were percent of facilities are functioning, while 8 assessed, of which 45 percent have been percent are not functioning (8 facilities). The partially damaged (38 percent) or fully operational status of the remaining facilities destroyed (8 percent). This includes 36 primary (27 percent) is unknown.70 schools and six secondary schools. 38 percent 70 This assessment does not include the February 2022 ISIL attack on Hassakah University, which is outside its temporal scope. I M PA C T O N S O C I A L   S E C TO R S | E ducation 99 FIGURE 38: DAMAGE TO EDUCATION FACILITIES IN ALEPPO Source: World Bank Estimates. Homs Afrin In Homs, 287 education facilities were In Afrin, 17 education facilities were assessed. assessed. Almost 97 percent of these are One facility, a secondary school, is partially undamaged, but 24 percent of them (70 damaged while the remaining facilities have schools) are not operational. not been damaged. Five facilities (29 percent) are not operational. Since the previous Ar-Raqqa damage assessment, one facility has been In Ar-Raqqa, 44 education facilities were damaged. The operational status decreased assessed, of which 57 percent were either for three facilities but did not change for the partially damaged (32 percent) or fully other 14. This is the first assessment for Afrin destroyed (25 percent), 66 percent were not and there are no previous data. operational, and the status of 13 percent (6 facilities) was unknown. Palmyra In Palmyra, 23 education facilities were Manbij assessed, of which 87 percent have been In Manbij, 26 education facilities were either partially damaged (74 percent) or fully assessed, of which five were either damaged destroyed (13 percent). Consequently, 93 (three primary schools) or destroyed (two percent of education facilities in Palmyra are facilities). Most facilities in Manbij are not functional. Since the previous assessment, operational (92 percent), and one primary three facilities have been repaired and an school and one college/university are not additional three are functional. functioning. 100 S Y R I A J O I N T D A M A G E A S S E S S M EN T O F S EL E C T ED C I T I E S Idlib a primary school has been destroyed. 11 In Idlib, 58 education facilities were assessed, facilities are functioning, one primary school of which none were damaged, and all but two is not operating, and the status of the other are operational. three facilities is unknown. Daraya Rastan In Daraya, 19 education facilities were In Rastan, 15 education facilities were assessed. Of these, 14 (74 percent) are assessed, of which four have been partially undamaged, three are partially damaged and damaged, and 11 are undamaged; these 11 two have been destroyed. Only 32 percent facilities are functioning (73 percent), and the of education facilities function, 47 percent (9 status of four is unknown. facilities) do not function, and the status of four is unknown. Tell Abiad In Tell Abiad, 10 education facilities were Zabadani assessed, and no damage was recorded. Seven In Zabadani, 15 education facilities were of these facilities function, one functions assessed, of which 13 were undamaged, a partially, and the status of the other two is not secondary school is partially damaged, and known. DAMAGE TO ASSETS AND PHYSICAL INFRASTRUCTURE TABLE 17: DAMAGE INVENTORY (IN US$ MILLION) Total Partially Completely Unit Cost Unit Cost Total Cost Total Cost Asset Type Baseline Damaged Damaged Destroyed Low High Low High Primary 500 110 83 27 125,581 188,372 7,559,976 11,339,964 school Secondary 187 30 26 4 200,930 301,394 2,893,386 4,340,079 school Vocational 59 19 13 6 200,930 301,394 2,250,412 3,375,617 school Primary and 64 12 7 5 200,930 301,394 1,567,251 2,350,876 Secondary College/ 49 10 6 4 803,718 1,205,578 5,143,798 7,715,697 University Pre-K/ 56 3 1 2 125,581 188,372 301,394 452,092 Kindergarten Unknown 445 61 45 16 163,255 244,883 5,550,680 8,326,020 1,365 245 181 64 25,266,897 37,900,346 I M PA C T O N S O C I A L   S E C TO R S | E ducation 101 TABLE 18: CIT Y-LEVEL DAMAGE COST (HIGH ESTIMATE - IN US$ MILLION) City Damage Cost - Low estimate  Damage Cost - High estimate  Aleppo  7,896,533  11,844,800  Dar’a  2,938,595  4,707,893  Deir-ez-Zor  5,023,240  7,734,860  Al Hasakah  228,557  342,836  Homs  791,160  1,286,740  Ar-Raqqa 4,405,381  5,843,610  Manbij  1,079,997  1,619,995  Afrin  80,372  120,558  Palmyra  1,878,692  2,918,038  Idlib 0  0  Daraya  522,417  783,625  Zabadani  205,953  358,929  Rastan  215,999  373,999  Tell Abiad  0  0  Total  US$25.3 million  US$37.9 million  Effects of the Conflict Schools in Syria do not provide a safe and of teachers have only one to three years secure learning environment. This is due, in of teaching experience.71 The educational part, to damage to schools and their use for gaps and learning challenges of students other purposes, for example, to host internally are substantial, and teachers require strong displaced people (IDP). Families report security pedagogical skills to guide learning within fears as the main reason for students missing, mixed-age groups and mixed ability settings. or dropping out of school. Efforts to build the skills of in-service and newly-certified teachers remain hampered, There are not enough qualified and however, by the protracted crisis, shortages of experienced teachers in Syria to meet the teaching/learning materials, and more recently learning needs of Syrian children. More by the COVID-19 pandemic. than 150,000 teachers have been lost to the education system in recent years, due to Teachers report the stress of teaching in a displacement, injury or death, and schools civil war and the challenges of engaging with have come to rely on unskilled teachers, their students. Some of their key concerns which has profoundly impacted the quality include: (i) teaching children traumatized by of teaching. Only 32 percent of teachers the conflict; (ii) how to react in an emergency; have teaching certificates, while 43 percent and (iii) classroom management. Limitations The assessment provides information on the and numeracy assessments indicate that damage to and functionality of schools. Even students are not attaining early foundational when children have easy access to a functional literacy and numeracy skills. In terms of access school, learning remains a challenge. While it and retention, the COVID-19 pandemic has has not been possible to conduct wide-scale exacerbated vulnerabilities and likely worsened learning assessments in recent years, literacy education inequalities among Syrian children. 71 Integrity (2019) Research to improve the quality of teaching and learning inside Syria. London: Integrity. 102 S Y R I A J O I N T D A M A G E A S S E S S M EN T O F S EL E C T ED C I T I E S Municipal Services Pre-Crisis Sector Conditions PRE-CRISIS SECTOR was commissioned by the Ministry of Local Administration in the 2000s for select cities, CHARACTERISTICS AND for which the plan made recommendations CONDITIONS for waste collection, treatment and disposal. Many of these recommendations, however, Prior to the conflict72, most cities provided were yet to be implemented at the onset of the water, sanitation, solid waste management conflict. For water, wastewater and sanitation, and other municipal services. In bigger a mix of institutions and city authorities cities, such as Aleppo, the private sector provided services, but these were piecemeal, also provided these services, but when the and further compromised by the conflict. conflict erupted, its involvement decreased, adding to pressures on government and city authorities to deliver them. Even prior to the conflict, municipal services in Syrian cities INVENTORY OF PHYSICAL were inadequate. For example, concerning INFRASTRUCTURE ASSETS solid waste management, most cities had open dumpsites outside of them, only a few of The inventory for Syria’s major cities shows them had sanitary landfills, and most of these that, before the conflict, there were 29 had problems with leaching, access control, community halls and markets, 187 parks and lack of regular monitoring. To address and entertainment facilities, 51 municipal such problems, a “Master plan of waste administration facilities and libraries, and 7 management in the Syrian Arab Republic” affordable housing buildings managed by municipalities. 72 According to UNHABITAT City Profiles for Various Cities including Aleppo, Dar’a, Al Hasakah, Ar-Raqqah, among others. I M PA C T O N S O C I A L   S E C TO R S | M unicipal S ervices 103 Sectoral Damage Assessment AGGREGATE SECTOR ANALYSIS partially damaged or destroyed, and 57 percent are partially functioning or not functioning. The damage to this municipal infrastructure is Aggregate Physical Damage estimated at US$21.3–25.7 million (Table 19). For community halls and markets, 55 percent of physical infrastructure has been partially The assessment of road infrastructure reveals damaged or destroyed, and 38 percent is a need for significant funding to address partially functioning or not functioning. For damage. Out of 5,386,798 km of road under parks and entertainment facilities, 24 percent municipal authority, 152,069 km (or 2.8 of physical infrastructure is partially damaged percent of total) requires major repair, and or destroyed, and 23 percent is partially 285,188 km (5.3 percent of total) requires functioning or not functioning. For municipal maintenance repair. The cost of major repair is administration facilities and libraries, 10 estimated at US$7.3–9.1 million, and the cost percent of physical infrastructure is partially of maintenance is estimated at US$9.1–11.4 damaged or destroyed, and 8 percent is million (Table 20). partially functioning or not functioning. Finally, for affordable housing buildings, 71 percent are TABLE 19: PHYSICAL AND OPER ATIONAL STATUS OF PHYSICAL INFR ASTRUCTURE Pre-Crisis Post Crisis Damage and Service Data Facility Baseline Physical Status (no of facilities) Operational Status (no of facilities) Classification Baseline Surface No Partially Partially Not Destroyed Unknown Functioning Unknown Number Area (m2) Damage Damaged Functioning Functioning Community halls and 29 192,078 13 12 4 0 16 3 8 2 markets Parks and 189 2,551,474 140 40 5 2 119 31 11 26 entertainment Municipal administration 51 156,843 45 4 1 1 35 2 2 12 and libraries Affordable 7 52,405 2 4 1 0 2 4 0 1 housing Source: World Bank staff estimates. TABLE 20: ROAD DAMAGE AND REPAIR COSTS, 2021 Requiring Requiring Cost of maintenance Road Length Damage Cost of major repair Major Repair Maintenance (US$) (Partially Classification (km) (km) (US$) (Destroyed) (km) (km) Damaged) Tertiary 588,292 39,600 13,012 25,162 624,563–780,704 805,178–1,006,472 Track 100,911 13,059 4,234 8,820 203,237–254,046 282,252–352,815 Residential 4,445,758 390,698 127,492 235,883 6,119,604–7,649,506 7,548,248–9,435,300 Service 251,836 22,718 7,332 15,324 351,923–439,903 490,354–612,942 Total 5,386,798 466,074 152,069 285,188 7,299,327–9,124,159 9,126,024–11,407,530 Source: World Bank Assessment. 104 S Y R I A J O I N T D A M A G E A S S E S S M EN T O F S EL E C T ED C I T I E S AGGREGATE IMPACT ON outskirts and had no solid waste management services, leading many people to contract SERVICE DELIVERY Leishmaniasis. The quality of and access to public services The city of Deir-ez-Zor lacked the financial has been affected by conflict across all resources to develop sanitary landfills, and Syrian cities. The loss in functionality of facilities to compact solid waste. The conflict municipal administration and libraries, parks made these conditions worse and many cities and entertainment, community halls and were unable to manage solid waste under markets, and affordable housing has curtailed conflict conditions. Table 21 presents pre- public service delivery. Damage to roads, and post-conflict solid waste management and lack of maintenance since the onset of resources for various cities in 2019. The largest the conflict has made public services, such decline in the number of refuse collection as health and education, difficult to reach workers occurred in the cities of Al Hasakah (see also Transport section). Finally, solid (67 percent decline), Ar-Raqqa (65 percent waste management, deficient in many cities decline), and Dar’a (51 percent decline). The before the conflict, has deteriorated further, cities of Ar-Raqqa, Dar’a and Deir-ez-Zor lost substantially compromising the population’s many of their refuse collection vehicles. While health, as have large accumulations of rubble data for Aleppo do not feature in the UrbAN-S in, most notably, the cities of Aleppo and Dar’a. City Profiles, we expect the city to be severely deprived of solid waste management services The conflict has compounded solid waste (Table 21). management challenges in many of Syria’s municipalities, increasing public health risks. Rubble generated by the conflict demands Prior to the conflict, there was an average a solid waste management plan. Table 22 of one waste collection worker per 1,000 presents city rubble estimates for low, individuals countrywide, albeit with large medium and high scenarios. While some effort differences in service delivery between has been made to dispose of rubble since the cities. In Aleppo, 40 neighborhoods had no last damage assessment in 2018, substantial waste collection prior to the conflict, which, amounts remain. Assuming a collection rate of given the large amounts of non-household 1,000 m3 per day of rubble, it will take 11,361 waste generated in Syria’s most populous days, 15,248 days and 18,247 days for low, city, posed a threat to health. Aleppo’s large medium, and high scenarios, respectively, to informal settlements dumped waste on their clean it up. TABLE 21: RESOURCES FOR SOLID WASTE MANAGEMENT IN SYRIAN CITIES, 2019 VS. PRE-CONFLICT Number of refuse Refuse collection Compressors Compactors   collection workers vehicles Pre-conflict 2019 Pre-conflict 2019 Pre-conflict 2019 Pre-conflict 2019 Al Hasakah 150 50 30 65 2 3 2 3 Al-Qusayr 80 62 3 2 3 2 3 - Ar-Raqqa 260 90 17 4 7 2 2 - Rastan 3 2 2 1 0 0 10 40 Dar’a 119 58 12 4 2 1 2 1 Deir-ez-Zor 771 509 47 3 2 0 - - Source: UrbAN-S - City Profiles. I M PA C T O N S O C I A L  S E C TO R S | M unicipal S ervices 105 TABLE 22: RUBBLE ESTIMATES FOR LOW, MEDIUM AND HIGH SCENARIOS City Low scenario (m³) Medium scenario (m³) High scenario (m³) Afrin 32,980 65,960 131,920 Tell Abiad 1,597 23,885 6,596 Aleppo 8,445,931 10,977,473 12,948,944 Dar’a 1,154,828 1,387,250 1,724,591 Daraya 291,769 383,841 411,789 Deir-ez-Zor 95,166 144,620 245,370 Al Hasakah 64,092 114,949 216,406 Homs 284,975 460,360 584,832 Idlib 493,063 657,700 822,196 Manbij 19,295 77,969 117,450 Palmyra 92,321 107,707 123,094 Ar-Raqqa 379,638 796,510 879,499 Rastan 2,906 35,130 19,241 Zabadani 2,866 14,935 15,037 Total 11,361,428 15,248,288 18,246,965 Source: World Bank assessment, October 2020. The conflict has compounded solid waste management challenges in many of Syria’s municipalities, increasing public health risks. Photo credit: World Bank 106 S Y R I A J O I N T D A M A G E A S S E S S M EN T O F S EL E C T ED C I T I E S CITY-LEVEL ANALYSIS Afrin Conflict has significantly damaged all road Aleppo types (tertiary, track, residential and service); The city’s community halls and markets, and of the 14 percent of roads affected, 5 and 9 affordable housing have been badly damaged, percent require major repair and maintenance, and its damaged residential buildings account respectively. One community hall and market for over 70 percent of Syria’s urban rubble. has been damaged. Dar’a Palmyra Roads have been badly damaged by conflict, One community hall and market has been with 3 and 7 percent needing major repair and damaged. maintenance, respectively. Two community halls and markets have been damaged, as Idlib have four of six parks and entertainment Eight and 15 percent of roads require major facilities. Dar’a accounts for roughly 10 percent repair and maintenance, respectively. of Syria’s urban rubble. Community halls and markets, parks and entertainment facilities, and affordable Deir-ez-Zor housing have been damaged, but this has not Roads have been badly damaged, with 7 affected services. Rubble makes up roughly 4 and 2 percent needing major repair, and percent of all rubble in the cities considered. maintenance, respectively. Half of the city’s parks and entertainment facilities, along with Daraya municipal administration facilities and libraries Service roads have been severely damaged are damaged. (89 percent damage, 27 percent require major repair), as have tertiary roads (15 percent Al Hasakah damage, 7 percent require major repair) Roads are largely undamaged, but parks and residential roads (13 percent damage, and entertainment facilities were partially 4 percent require major repair). Parks and damaged, and three out of 13 facilities are only entertainment facilities have been damaged, partially functioning. and rubble accounts for roughly 2 percent of all rubble in the cities considered. Homs Two and 4 percent of roads require major Zabadani repair and maintenance, respectively. Three Service roads have been particularly damaged out of 16 parks and entertainment facilities (36 percent of total length, 11 percent are partially damaged, and rubble accounts for requiring major repair), while other types of roughly 3 percent of all the rubble in the cities roads are damaged over 3 percent of their considered. length. Libraries, parks and entertainment facilities have been damaged. Ar-Raqqa Nine and 19 percent of roads need major Rastan repair and maintenance, respectively; Tertiary roads have been badly damaged (15 and community halls, markets, parks, percent, 5 percent require major repair), while administration and recreation buildings, and 4 percent of residential roads are damaged (1 libraries have been damaged and offer limited percent need major repair). One community services. Rubble accounts for roughly 3–5 facility has been completely damaged. percent of total rubble across the low, medium and high scenarios for cities considered. Tell Abiad Roughly 5 percent of roads have been Manbij damaged (approximately half need major Twenty and 41 percent of roads need major repair, remainder need maintenance). One repair and maintenance, respectively; no asset under community halls and markets, and municipal facilities were damaged. parks and entertainment facilities has been damaged. I M PA C T O N S O C I A L   S E C TO R S | M unicipal S ervices 107 DAMAGE TO ASSETS AND PHYSICAL INFRASTRUCTURE TABLE 23: DAMAGE INVENTORY (IN US$ MILLION)   Baseline Damage Unit Cost (US$ per Partial Damage Estimate Completely Destroyed Total Damage Cost (US$) sq m) (US$) Estimate (US$) Asset Types Numbers Total Partially Completely No Damage Unknown Low High Low estimate High estimate Low estimate High estimate Low estimate High estimate Damaged Damaged Destroyed estimate estimate Public Spaces and Facilities, and Affordable Housing  Community 9 2 1 1 7 0 220 300 424,000.00 530,000.00 75,800.00 94,750.00 499,800.00 624,750.00 Facility Community 20 14 11 3 6 0 180 200 6,681,384.00 7,423,760.00 6,244,320.00 6,938,133.33 12,925,704.00 14,361,893.33 Market Entertainment 5 1 0 1 4 0 200 250 0.00 0.00 587,400.00 734,250.00 587,400.00 734,250.00 Library 1 0 0 0 1 0 200 250 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Municipal 50 5 4 1 44 1 200 250 1,587,853.33 1,984,816.67 800,000.00 1,000,000.00 2,387,853.33 2,984,816.67 Administration Affordable 7 5 4 1 2 0 200 250 3,221,800.00 4,027,250.00 589,700.00 737,125.00 3,811,500.00 4,764,375.00 Housing Parks/ 182 44 40 4 136 2 5 10 987,213.90 1,974,427.79 103,333.33 206,666.67 1,090,547.23 2,181,094.46 Playgrounds Public Parking 7 0 0 0 7 0  -  - 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Slaughterhouse 0 0 0 0 0 0  -  - 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Sub-total 281 71 60 11 207 3     12,902,251.23 15,940,254.46 8,400,553.33 9,710,925.00 21,302,804.56 25,651,179.46 Baseline Damage Unit Cost (US$ per km) Partial Damage Estimate Completely Destroyed Total Damage Cost (US$) (US$) Estimate (US$)  Roads length in Total Partially Completely No Damage Unknown Low High Low estimate High estimate Low estimate High estimate Low estimate High estimate meters Damaged Damaged Destroyed estimate estimate Tertiary 588,292.50 39,599.55 13,011.73 25,161.80 548,692.94 - 80,000.00 100,000.00 805,177.56 1,006,471.95 624,563.03 780,703.78 1,429,740.59 1,787,175.73 Track 100,911.44 13,059.02 4,234.10 8,820.39 87,852.42 - 80,000.00 100,000.00 282,252.35 352,815.44 203,236.97 254,046.21 485,489.32 606,861.65 Residential 4,445,757.68 390,698.04 127,491.76 235,882.51 4,055,059.64 - 80,000.00 100,000.00 7,548,240.20 9,435,300.25 6,119,604.43 7,649,505.54 13,667,844.63 17,084,805.79 Service 251,836.38 22,717.67 7,331.72 15,323.56 229,118.70 - 80,000.00 100,000.00 490,354.05 612,942.56 351,922.75 439,903.44 842,276.80 1,052,846.00 Sub-total 5,386,797.99 466,074.29 152,069.32 285,188.25 4,920,723.70   320,000.00 400,000.00 9,126,024.16 11,407,530.20 7,299,327.18 9,124,158.97 16,425,351.33 20,531,689.17 Total                 22,028,275.39 27,347,784.66 15,699,880.51 18,835,083.97 37,728,155.90 46,182,868.63 Source: World Bank Assessment, October 2020. 108 S Y R I A J O I N T D A M A G E A S S E S S M EN T O F S EL E C T ED C I T I E S TABLE 24: CIT Y-LEVEL DAMAGE COST (IN US$ MILLION) City Damage Cost (Low estimate) Damage Cost (High estimate) Afrin 1,588,562.0 1,913,562.5 Aleppo 11,748,274.2 13,969,867.5 Dar’a 2,553,276.0 2,952,845.0 Daraya 582,758.5 766,698.2 Deir-ez-Zor 2,404,364.6 3,058,032.4 Al Hasakah 238,533.6 312,571.5 Homs 2,496,694.2 3,064,231.3 Idlib 3,972,676.5 4,979,990.2 Manbij 226,070.0 282,587.6 Palmyra 932,311.0 1,095,388.7 Ar-Raqqa 9,405,319.0 11,766,648.8 Rastan 255,509.9 341,773.3 Tell Abiad 544,014.8 703,931.9 Zabadani 779,791.7 974,739.6 Total 37,728,155.9 46,182,868.6 Source: World Bank Assessment, October 2020. Effects and Impact of the Conflict The Syrian conflict has significantly damaged use e.g. nine of the 14 cities have lost crop municipal assets and roads, and produced lands to urban expansion74, ii) disruption debris requiring disposal. The extent of of and increased pressure on services e.g. damage, and poor funding of city councils more waste may overwhelm solid waste suggest many years of work to restore management services, and disruption of municipal services to pre-conflict levels. public transport affects access to jobs and Beyond these immediate effects, the conflict services. has also given rise to multiple issues in urban development, planning and public institutions • Inadequate service delivery has had at city level: adverse impacts on the environment and public health. For example, around four • More than 80 percent of Syrian IDPs neighborhoods in Western Aleppo and live in cities73, and data indicate internal 36 neighborhoods in Eastern Aleppo had population movements in nearly all 14 no waste collection in 2014, which led to cities (within and between cities and informal dumping. Since 2014, Al Hasakah neighborhoods) between 2011 and 2019. city has eight unapproved, informal This may impact these cities on two levels: dumpsites and landfills; in some cities/ i) changes in city morphology and land- areas, these are at sub-optimal sites e.g. 73 UN OCHA (2021). Humanitarian Needs Overview—Syrian Arab Republic. https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/ resources/syria_2021_humanitarian_needs_overview.pdf 74 Please see Environment Chapter for detailed analysis on land-use/land-cover change. I M PA C T O N S O C I A L   S E C TO R S | M unicipal S ervices 109 Raqqa city’s landfill occupies agricultural by conflict. Transparent public institutions fields. It will be important to assess the at the municipal level will enhance revenue entire cycle of solid waste management collection and build trust between local in cities – starting from waste generation- government and communities. collection-disposal-treatment, in order to restore waste management services • There is not yet a national strategy efficiently and sustainably. to guide recovery and rehabilitation programs, but the international community • Conflict has made it harder for municipal have intervened to provide immediate governments to collect revenues from rehabilitation efforts. In addition to the residents, and City Councils have struggled public sector, the international community, to plan due to governance and control the private sector, and other organizations issues, dwindling budgets,75 and capacity can play an important role in recovery and constraints. Awareness and capacity of rehabilitation, and avenues to involve the communities has also been compromised private sector should be identified. Limitations For solid waste management planning, To assess damage to municipal and road qualitative data (including social media infrastructure, and to calculate rubble information) and assessments from secondary accumulation, several assumptions were sources, including city profiles, were used. made, as mentioned in earlier sections. 75 Details of impacts on state budget can be found in Public Institutions chapter. 110 S Y R I A J O I N T D A M A G E A S S E S S M EN T O F S EL E C T ED C I T I E S Photo credit: Shutterstock C R O S S - C U T T I N G S E C TO R S 111 CROSS-CUTTING SECTORS 112 S Y R I A J O I N T D A M A G E A S S E S S M EN T O F S EL E C T ED C I T I E S Public Institutions Pre-Crisis Sector Conditions Prior to the war, public institutions in Syria poverty. These factors, combined with a lack could be characterized as follows:  of political representation and accountability, and runaway rent-seeking by political elites - Poor rating of public institutions across the led to the mass protests of 2011 to demand board despite limited progress on regulatory better governance and more inclusive public quality and government effectiveness in the institutions. years preceding the war: • A large fiscal footprint but very low fiscal Syria faced several governance and structural accountability and transparency: in 2010, challenges prior to the crisis, which included, revenues were estimated at 21.9 percent notably, moving from a planned economy of GDP and public expenditure at 26.9 towards a liberalized market economy, and percent; although a PEFA assessment reducing poverty via interventions to enhance was conducted in 2006, its findings are human development. The government’s ability not publicly available, but a joint IMF/WB to provide public services was constrained mission on the modernization of PFM in by an inefficient public administration. As 2010 found that no budget information the structure of the economy hindered the was made publicly available and that fiscal development of a private sector that would accountability mechanisms were missing. employ entrants into the labor market, Public procurement was monopolized by state-led employment became part of the politically connected firms, and only five pre-war social contract. As a result, public companies were granted half of public administration suffered from overstaffing investment projects. Seven percent of while many civil servants, notably mid-level the population was employed by the officials, lacked the skills for their positions, government i.e., twice as many as in Jordan. constraining sector-planning and more complex reforms and operations.76 High • A high degree of centralization and lack subsidies on energy and fuel, and declining oil of governance in newly-urbanized areas: revenues constrained the government’s ability substantial migration from rural areas led to pursue human development and alleviate to rapid growth of underserved townships 76 Brück, T. et al. (2007) “Evaluating Economic Reforms in Syria” Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Berlin. I M PA C T O N S O C I A L   S E C TO R S | P ublic I nstitutions 113 FIGURE 39: SYRIA’S R ANKING UNDER WORLD GOVERNANCE INDICATORS FROM 2000 TO 2014 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 2000 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Control of Corruption: Estimate Rule of Law: Percentile Rank, Lower Bound of 90% Confidence Interval Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism: Number of Sources Country: Syrian Arab Republic Government Effectiveness: Percentile Rank, Lower Bound of 90% Confidence Interval Source: Worldwide Governance Regulatory Quality: Percentile Rank, Lower Bound of 90% Confidence Interval Indicators Created on: 08/31/2022 Voice and Accountability: Percentile Rank, Lower Bound of 90% Confidence Interval on the outskirts of large cities; at the • An identity-based/sectarian social contract: onset of the war, Syria was characterized Syria is deemed to lack “a history of as “a police state without resources” statehood,” in contrast to Egypt, Turkey or whose control over certain urban and Morocco, and it is argued that the ruling rural territories weakened from the 1980s elites “relied on identity networks to onwards, with for instance only a single safeguard their power” even though the police officer for every 500 people in pre-war regime was officially combatting Aleppo and much less in newly-built and sectarianism.  fast-growing peripheral neighborhoods.77 Sectoral Damage Assessment AGGREGATE SECTOR ANALYSIS  from 21.5 percent in 2010 to 6 percent in 2015. By 2021, revenues had decreased by The assessment focuses on 1) damage to the 83 percent from their pre-war levels due to fiscal space and 2) physical damage to public loss of oil revenues, which along with other facilities. non-tax revenues amounted to two thirds of total revenue in 2010. In 2021, US$2.1 billion 1) The fiscal space has shrunk by at least two of revenues were appropriated as compared thirds while public investment has decreased to US$6.8 billion of expenditure, widening further by around 90 percent. According to the budget deficit to close to US$1bn. The the IMF, the ratio of revenue to GDP decreased average budget deficit since the war started is estimated to be 32 percent.  77 Dorronsoro G., Baczko A. & Quesnay A. (eds), 2018, Civil War in Syria. Mobilization and Competing Social Orders. Cambridge University Press. 114 S Y R I A J O I N T D A M A G E A S S E S S M EN T O F S EL E C T ED C I T I E S FIGURE 40: STATE BUDGET SINCE 2010 IN US$ BILLIONS (IN REAL TERMS) Source: Christou W. & Shaar K., 2020, 2021 budget reveals the depth of Syria’s economic woes. Atlantic Council. PHYSICAL DAMAGE TO nine completely destroyed. One out of three facilities in Manbij and one out of three PUBLIC FACILITIES facilities in Palmyra have been partially damaged. Thirteen percent of facilities in This assessment covers a wide range of Deir-ez-Zor (1 out of 8) are damaged. However, government facilities including national, other assessments show more damage in the municipal, and provincial administrative city, with 12 facilities partially damaged and buildings, courthouses, prisons, fire stations, not operational, and nine facilities completely police stations, vehicle registration offices, destroyed. In Homs, data indicate that one civil defense, police traffic offices, post facility (fire department) is partially damaged offices, real estate registration offices and and not operational. Other cities impacted other offices and buildings. About 10 percent are Zabadani (25 percent of facilities), Idlib of these facilities in the 14 cities have been (13 percent), Aleppo (13 percent), and Dar’a (4 damaged (13 out of 127) by conflict, out of percent). which two percent are completely destroyed. One prison out of three (33 percent) has been Based on this information, damage is partially damaged. Five post offices out of estimated at US$6.9–8.5 million, much of 20 (25 percent) have been impacted, with which is associated with the damage to the one of them completely destroyed. Three prison, estimated at US$4.4–5.3 million. For courthouses have been partially damaged, provincial administrative buildings, damages accounting for 20 percent of courthouses. are valued at US$0.8–0.9 million, post offices Twelve percent of national administrative at US$0.7–0.9 million, national administration buildings (2 out of 17), six percent of provincial US$0.6–0.7 million, courthouses US$0.4–0.5 administrative buildings (1 out of 18) and four million and police stations US$0.05–0.06 percent of police stations (1 out of 23) have million.  been damaged. Damage to these buildings has impacted Manbij, Palmyra and Ar-Raqqa are the cities their functionality, with 14 out of 127 most affected by the conflict; in Ar-Raqqa, not functioning, and 4 out of 127 only 33 percent of administrative facilities have partially functioning. Four post offices, two been damaged, with three facilities out of I M PA C T O N S O C I A L   S E C TO R S | P ublic I nstitutions 115 courthouses, two national and two provincial controlled areas but remained weak. Currently, administrative buildings, one prison, one government funding remains unavailable in traffic police office, one police station and former opposition-controlled neighborhoods one municipal administrative building are not and most of their public assets are not functioning. operational. Damage to administrative buildings has In Deir-ez-Zor, 13 percent (1 out of 8) of affected the delivery of public services, and facilities are partially damaged (a post heavily damaged/destroyed or partially office). Additional data show 12 facilities to damaged police stations, courthouses, be partially damaged and not operational prisons, and other administrative buildings (courts, civil registry, directorates of finance may reduce the ability of government to and social affairs, municipal building, etc.) restore security and stability. Damage to and nine facilities completely destroyed local cadastral offices and records creates (immigration and passports administration, difficulties for returning populations, directorate of land registry, fire department, and hinders economic recovery, and the directorate of technical services, etc.). functioning of government is further affected Administrative capacity and service delivery by losses of goods/equipment/vehicles, and have been severely impacted as many significant losses of human potential. government functions were either transferred or discontinued due to damage and security concerns, including courts and notary services, CITY-LEVEL ANALYSIS officiating of property transactions, and other licenses and official documentation services. In Aleppo, 13 percent of administrative Although many departments were transferred facilities (4 out of 30) have been partially to state-controlled areas, they lost both damaged. These include a courthouse, police human resources and assets. Similarly to other station, post office and national administrative cities, the Deir-ez-Zor city administration has building. The cadastral building in Aleppo lost almost its entire staff and the bulk of its is also out of service, threatened by rising field workers. Although local police offices and groundwater after the breakdown of discharge courts were relocated, the efforts of police pumps. Public services across other sectors to maintain order have been undermined have also been affected. The institutional by the presence of armed militia. Still, other capacity for service delivery has also been departments remained functional such as the impacted by the large displacement of public Passports and Immigration Department and sector workers and the lack of financial the Department of Civil Documentation. resources. This has allowed alternative service providers to offer services at higher costs. Based on the assessment, none of the 16 Governance has been compromised and administrative facilities in Al Hasakah were government contracts are attended by bribery damaged. However, other studies indicate and corruption. The city has also been looted, damage concentrated in the Arab-majority which will hinder business recovery plans. southern half of Al Hasakah city. Governance is a major challenge for citizens, as some parts of In Dar’a, four percent (1 out of 24) of facilities the city are controlled by the government and have been partially damaged (a post office). others by other actors. This has created dual The division of the city into state-controlled governance, the splitting of administrative and opposition-controlled areas fragmented functions, and co-dependency. The different public institutions and service provision. While administrations work together in some the government relocated administrative areas such as health and education; natural functions to state-controlled areas, parallel resources produced in one area are exchanged structures were established in opposition- for more specialized public services from 116 S Y R I A J O I N T D A M A G E A S S E S S M EN T O F S EL E C T ED C I T I E S another. This lowers the quality of services and In Afrin, according to available data, none of leads to fragmentation, redundancies, higher the six administrative facilities were damaged. transaction costs, and lack of accountability. However, other assessments have described the entire city as only partially functional. In Homs, assessments indicate that only 18 In Palmyra, 33 percent (1 out of 3) of neighborhoods have functional services, while administrative facilities are partially damaged 11 have partially functional services and 4 (a prison). In Idlib, 13 percent (1 out of 8) of have poorly or non-functional services.  administrative buildings have been partially damaged (a courthouse). In Daraya, Rastan, In Ar-Raqqa, 33 percent (3 out of 9) of and Tell Abiad, no administrative facilities were administrative facilities are fully destroyed. damaged. However, In Zabadani, 25 percent (1 This city, which has been severely impacted out of 4) of facilities are partially damaged (a by the conflict, is suffering from weakened post office).  public service delivery and administration. Throughout the conflict, as the city fell under the control of different actors, different DAMAGE TO ASSETS AND governance systems came into being. In Manbij, PHYSICAL INFRASTRUCTURE 33 percent (1 out of 3) of administrative assets have been partially damaged (a courthouse). The tables below summarize damage to Other studies indicate that most of the damage facilities and estimated damage costs. At the occurred when ISIL used public buildings as time of writing, the extent of damage to some military bases. facilities was unknown. TABLE 25: DAMAGE INVENTORY (IN US$ MILLION) Unit Cost (US$)       Damage Total Damage Cost (US$) per m² Totally Partially Completely No Low High Low High Asset Type  Baseline Damaged Damaged Destroyed Damage estimate estimate estimate estimate Civil Defense  2  0  0  0  2  199.80  244.19                       -                          -     Courthouse  15  3  3  0  12  199.80  244.19  419,810.95   513,102.27   Fire station  10  0  0  0  9  199.80  244.19                       -                          -     Municipal 11  0  0  0  11  199.80  244.19                       -                          -     Administration  National 17  2  1  1  14  199.80  244.19       584,882.25         714,856.08   Administration  Office Building  1  0  0  0  1  199.80  244.19                       -                          -     Police station  23  1  1  0  20  199.80  244.19  48,670.26   59,485.87   Post office  20  5  4  1  13  199.80  244.19  753,350.07   920,761.20   Prison  3  1  1  0  2  199.80  244.19  4,380,003.61   5,353,337.74   Provincial 18  1  0  1  17  199.80  244.19  765,018.15   935,022.18   Administration  Real estate 3  0  0  0  3  199.80  244.19                       -                          -     registration  Traffic police 3  0  0  0  2  199.80  244.19                       -                          -     office  Vehicle 1  0  0  0  1  199.80  244.19                       -                          -     registration office  Total  127  13  10  3  107        6,951,735.28   8,496,565.35   I M PA C T O N S O C I A L  S E C TO R S | P ublic I nstitutions 117 TABLE 26: CIT Y-LEVEL DAMAGE COST (IN US$ MILLION)  City   Damage Cost  (Low estimate)  Damage Cost  (High estimate)  Afrin                                 -                                     -     Aleppo  495,573.52   605,700.97   Dar’a                                 -                                     -     Daraya                                 -                                     -     Deir-ez-Zor  171,344.88   209,421.53   Al Hasakah                                 -                                     -     Homs                                 -                                     -     Idlib  18,061.54   22,075.22   Manbij  73,444.94   89,766.04   Palmyra  4,380,003.61   5,353,337.74   Ar-Raqqa  1,740,820.87   2,127,669.95   Rastan                                 -                                     -     Tell Abiad                                 -                                     -     Zabadani  72,485.92   88,593.90   Total  6,951,735.28   8,496,565.35   Effects of the Conflict Damage to administrative buildings has percent of respondents claim to have faced adversely affected public services, even discrimination by state institutions on these though the buildings themselves are not grounds. always essential (e.g. for justice, policing, cadastral records, etc.). Physical damage is Public institutions, already weak before the only a subset of the effects of conflict on crisis, have worsened. The armed conflict, public service delivery in Syria. and seizure of power by non-state actors in some governorates, has further weakened The sidelining or undermining of civilian public institutions. Although the intensity institutions at the local level by armed groups, of fighting has declined, the rule of law, and and retaliation against social groups deemed accountability in public institutions have hostile are a more serious threat to local continued to deteriorate. Before the crisis, governance: there is anecdotal evidence that, Syria fell below the MENA average for several both in government and rebel-controlled governance indicators, including perception areas, armed groups either compete with of corruption, rule of law, government or take over local governments, and that effectiveness, and voice and accountability; reconstruction is planned to consolidate in many instances, these low rankings political constituencies. Surveys indicate deteriorated further during the conflict and the gulf between government policy and have not recovered (Figure 41). In 2020, Syria people’s everyday experiences: official dropped to 178th out of 180 countries in the government policies uphold equal rights corruption perception index, down from a for all Syrians irrespective of religious, rank of 144th in 2012. sectarian or ethnic affiliation, but nearly 30 118 S Y R I A J O I N T D A M A G E A S S E S S M EN T O F S EL E C T ED C I T I E S FIGURE 41: PERFORMANCE OF SYRIA WITH RESPECT TO GOVERNANCE INDICATORS, 2000–2020 Source: World Bank Estimates Limitations The difficulty of accessing damaged buildings affects the quality and accuracy of data, and not all damaged assets in these cities have been captured in this assessment. The assessment of fiscal damage is limited by a lack of information on budget execution at central government level, and of data on local finances. I M PA C T O N S O C I A L   S E C TO R S | E nvironment 119 Environment Pre-Crisis Sector Conditions  Syria is home to a varied and dynamic without solid waste management facilities, landscape with rich biodiversity and resources. including many IDPs, often live near open solid Before the crisis, approximately one-third of waste dumps. At least 21 such dump sites, the country was arable, and more than half covering over 300 hectares, were identified in comprised natural pastures, steppe, desert, the Hasakah region of northeast Syria alone,79 and mountainous areas. Prior to Syria’s crisis and create health and livelihood problems for in 2011, the country already faced serious both displaced and settled communities. In environmental challenges related to water addition, significant changes in land use and scarcity and contamination, soil degradation, vegetation cover reflect an increase in barren air pollution, solid waste management, lands and urban areas, and a decrease in biodiversity loss, coastal and marine rangelands and agricultural areas.80 pollution. The pre-war costs of environmental degradation were estimated at 2.3 percent of Prior World Bank Damage Assessments in the country’s GDP in 2009.78 Syria have not measured environmental damage. An exception is the World Bank’s Conflict has severely accelerated Syria’s 2017 economic and social assessment of environmental degradation. Studies have the conflict in Syria, which piloted a study found widespread contamination and pollution to manage rubble, and of potential impacts related to oil extraction, physical infrastructure of damaged industrial facilities in Aleppo. damage, and weapons. The displacement of The study revealed rubble accumulation in people has also affected the environment, Aleppo and Homs of approximately 14.9 and causing solid waste, wastewater, and air 5.3 million tons, respectively, and flagged the pollution challenges with direct and indirect difficulties of rubble removal and processing, effects on (i) water pollution; (ii) land pollution; and the environmental and social risks that and (iii) air pollution, requiring a comprehensive could accompany this task.81 approach to reduce pollution sources. People 78 Delegation of the European Commission to Syria (2009). Country Environmental Profile for the Syrian Arab Republic: Final Report. 79 PAX. 2015. Amidst the debris… A desktop study on the environmental and public health impact of Syria’s conflict. 80 Mohamed, M. A., Anders, J., & Schneider, C. (2020). Monitoring of Changes in Land Use/Land Cover in Syria from 2010 to 2018 Using Multitemporal Landsat Imagery and GIS. Land, 9(7), 226. 81 World Bank. 2017. The Toll of War. The economic and social consequences of the conflict in Syria. 120 S Y R I A J O I N T D A M A G E A S S E S S M EN T O F S EL E C T ED C I T I E S Sectoral Damage Assessment AGGREGATE SECTOR ANALYSIS estimates reflect the loss of services that benefited local communities.  The approach adopted to assess environmental damage, as part of the current DA, does not Special waste streams: e-waste from aim to quantify all known environmental losses, damaged health facilities. While data but focuses on costing key/major damages limitations make it hard to quantify many and pressures. While all damaged assets are special waste streams, damaged health potential sources of special waste streams, facility data from the DA enable estimation the DA focused on those that are likely to of e-waste from these facilities. The DA cause the most significant impacts and require estimated that a completely destroyed specialized interventions to mitigate or minimize hospital generates around 3,000 kg of environmental hazards, within the limitations e-waste, while other health facilities generate of the availability of information within the DA. approximately 1,800 kg of e-waste. The DA Accordingly, damage has been assessed for the estimated that a partially damaged facility would following two main categories:  generate 40 percent of these waste quantities. These assumptions were applied to all asset Type and quantity of special waste streams in classes except for damaged pharmacies/ damaged assets, including oil, electronic waste dispensaries and health administration (e-waste), and rubble. The expense incurred to buildings. Based on these assumptions, and as manage special waste streams which affect the summarized in Table 26 below, about 160 tons population and the environment constitutes of e-waste is estimated to have been produced the cost of the damage.  by the conflict. The estimated cost to treat and safely dispose of this waste is around Changes in land use/landcover since US$0.4 million at a cost of US$2,250 per ton. the war, to identify impact on ecosystems At the city level, the cost to manage e-waste and biodiversity. This assessment focuses from damaged health facilities is provided on pressures and impacts of conflict and in Table 26 below. This is based on an average of displacement on ecosystem services. Cost 2,700 kg of e-waste per facility.  TABLE 26: E-WASTE FROM DAMAGED HEALTH FACILITIES Facility   Baseline Number  Partially Damaged  e-waste (kg)  Destroyed  e-waste (kg)  Private Hospital  220         38   45,600  13         39,000   Public Hospital  51            8   9,600  3            9,000   Hospital (Unknown)  27            6  7,200  4         12,000   Medical Center  114         19   13,300  6         10,800   Specialized Medical Center  18            2   1,400  1            1,800   Medical Point  4            4    2,800  0         0                 Polyclinic  6 1 700 2 3,600 Rehabilitation Center  0 0 0 0 0 Teaching Hospital  0 0 0 0 0 Medical Training Center  3 0 0 0 0 Total  443 78 80,600 29 76,200 Source: World Bank Data, October 2020. I M PA C T O N S O C I A L  S E C TO R S | E nvironment 121 Management of rubble. The DA calculation the DA adopted a unit cost approach based of rubble mass is based on housing on Scenario 2 of US$9.5/ton of rubble.83 damage assessments at city level converted As per Table 27 below, the DA estimated a from m3 to tons. Cost estimates to clear, total of 17.6 million tons of rubble for the transport, process, and dispose of rubble low damage estimation and 28.3 million have considered environmental and social tons for the high damage estimation. The safeguards, and are based on a prior World estimated costs to manage and dispose of Bank study.82 While this study provided this rubble are between US$167.3 million and three scenarios for rubble management, US$268.7 million.   TABLE 27: CIT Y-LEVEL ESTIMATES OF ENVIRONMENTAL DAMAGE AND COSTS FROM RUBBLE AND MEDICAL E-WASTE Rubble Rubble Cost e-waste Cost (low est., Partially e-waste e-waste City  Estimate, Estimate, (high est., Destroyed  cost million US$)  Damaged  (kg)  (kg)  m3 (Low)  m3 (High)  million US$)  (US$)  Afrin  32,980  0.49  131920  1.94  1  1,000  -  -  2,250  Aleppo  8,445,931  124.37  12948944  190.67  31  31,000  14  37800  154,800  Dara’a  1,154,828  17.00  1724591  25.39  2  2,000  -  -  4,500  Daraya  291,769  4.30  411789  6.06  1  1,000  1  2700  8,325  Deir Ezzor  95,166  1.40  245370  3.61  1  1,000  1  2,700  8,325  Hasakah  64,092  0.94  216406  3.19  -  -  -  -  -  Homs  284,975  4.20  584832  8.61  3  3,000  2  5400  18,900  Idlib  493,063  7.26  822196  12.11  1  1,000  -  -  2,250  Manbij  19,295  0.28  117450  1.73  1  1,000  -  -  2,250  Palmyra  92,321  1.36  123094  1.81  2  2,000  -  -  4,500  Raqqah  379,638  5.59  879499  12.95  3  3,000  -  -  6,750  Rastan  2,906  0.04  19241  0.28  2  2,000  -  -  4,500  Tell Abyad  1,597  0.02  6596  0.10  2  2,000  -  -  4,500  Zabadani  2,866  0.04  15037  0.21  1  1,000  -  -  2,250  Total costs (million US$)  167.29    268.66          0.22  Source: World Bank Data, October 2020. Effects of the Conflict IMPACT OF THE WAR AND 1.5 million people by drought around 2008.84 Today, over 80 percent of Syrian IDPs live in OF INTERNAL POPULATION cities.85 The DA indicates that between 2011 MOVEMENT ON LAND USE and 2019, urban areas in most of the 14 cities AND NATURAL RESOURCES  expanded and encroached on non-urban land; nine of them lost cropland to urban expansion, Urban areas were expanding in Syria before the while three lost barren land (see Figure 42).   conflict, following the displacement of around 82 World Bank. 2017. Aleppo Pilot Environmental Damage Assessment. 83 Scenario 2 was selected as it reflects common practice based on international development experience in this field in Syria. 84 United Nations; World Bank. 2018. Pathways for Peace: Inclusive Approaches to Preventing Violent Conflict. Washington, DC: World Bank. © World Bank. 85 UN OCHA. (2021). Humanitarian Needs Overview—Syrian Arab Republic. 122 S Y R I A J O I N T D A M A G E A S S E S S M EN T O F S EL E C T ED C I T I E S The “Net Landcover Change” conducted under FIGURE 42: PRIMARY L AND USE CHANGE the DA showed loss of green cover (grass/ IN 14 CITIES shrubland/sparse vegetation areas) in 11 of the 14 cities, with the most loss (in km2) 1 recorded in Deir Ezzor, followed by Aleppo, 1 cropland to urban Homs, Manbij and Daraya (Table 27). The barren land to urban value of ecosystem services lost through 3 land cover change across these cities is grassland to urban over US$35 million.86 9 cropland to barren land TABLE 28: NET L AND COVER CHANGE AND ECOSYSTEM SERVICES LOSS IN 14 CITIES OF INTEREST (KM 2 ), WITH EMPHASIS ON GREEN COVER CHANGE Net Land Cover Green ES total loss Change 2011 – Barren Cropland Urban Water No change cover (2011 US$) 2019 (km2) Afrin -0.6 -0.8 -0.1 1.5 0 8.3 525,732 Aleppo -19.4 -17.7 -3.9 40.9 0 329.4 12,321,558 Dar’a -0.6 -2 -0.9 3.5 0 22.4 1,359,083 Daraya -0.8 -1.4 -1.2 3.4 0 16.7 1,069,856 Deir-ez-Zor -3.8 -9.3 -4.9 18.6 -0.6 127.7 7,243,709 Al Hasakah -4.5 -4.7 -0.8 10 0 63.4 3,189,340 Homs -1.6 -5.5 -2.1 9.2 0 165 3,673,075 Idlib -0.2 -0.5 -0.2 0.9 0 20.7 339,092 Manbij -1.5 -4.2 -2.1 7.8 0 38.1 2,904,510 Palmyra -4.8 1 0 3.7 0 28.5 325,358 Raqqa -1.6 -2.4 -0.5 4.7 -0.1 47.4 1,719,378 Rastan -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.8 0 11 221,894 Tell Abiad -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0 0 9.4 65,377 Zabadani 0 -1 0 1 0 11.3 585,991 Ecosystem services value 67,783 585,991 162,702 No loss 1,231,971 No loss 35,543,953 in 2011 US$ per km2 lost15 Source: World Bank data, unless otherwise noted.  Note: green cover refers to grass/shrubland and sparse vegetation.  IMPACT OF CONFLICT AND of bombing and intentional fires targeting agricultural land. Beyond these direct effects, DISPLACEMENT ON FORESTS the conflict has worsened soil erosion, water contamination, and waste disposal problems Although forests make up a small portion of in agricultural and urban areas throughout Syria’s landscape (3.2 percent pre-conflict), this Syria, creating pressure to exploit protected vegetation type is ecologically important and lands. Charcoal production by those without has been widely affected by the conflict. Direct other forms of fuel, such as IDPs and others effects include fires that start as a result 86 Historical loss is calculated using estimates from 2011. I M PA C T O N S O C I A L   S E C TO R S | E nvironment 123 living in poverty, has also damaged forests.87 TABLE 29: TOTAL FOREST LOSS, 2011– While national-level loss of forest cover was 2020 estimated at around 25 percent between Governorate  Lost Forest (Hectares)  2010 and 202188, this DA indicates that across the forested governorates of Aleppo, Hama, Aleppo  649  Latakia, Idlib, and Tartus, over 45,000 hectares Hama  15,311  of forest were lost during that period (see Table 28), constituting approximately nine Idlib 5,519 percent of the country’s forest cover in 2011.89 Latakia 22,299 Continuing deforestation and worsening Tartus 1,333 forest fires can also be attributed to weakened governance, lack of community forest Source: Based on World Bank staff estimates. management, and climate change. IMPACT OF CONFLICT IMPACT OF OIL AND DAMAGED AND DISPLACEMENT ON INDUSTRIES ON WATER BIODIVERSITY AND RESOURCES AND NEARBY PROTECTED AREAS POPULATIONS According to Protected Planet and Damage to oil refineries, pipelines, oil fields, Key Biodiversity Areas,90 Syria has 19 terrestrial oil infrastructure, and oil storage sites, in protected areas and 52 key biodiversity addition to makeshift oil refineries was areas (KBAs). KBAs cover approximately reported as early as 2015 to cause significant 23,000 km2, while protected areas cover environmental damage and air pollution, and 1,293 km2. The threat to biodiversity is local soil, surface water, and groundwater exacerbated by a collapse of environmental contamination.91 regulations and anti-poaching enforcement. The DA compared governorate-level IDP Recent reports have documented over arrivals and NDVI (Normalized Difference 500 spills from oil facilities and extraction Vegetation Index) changes in KBAs and sites around the Rumeilan oil fields alone, protected areas to allow for a broader and nearly 200 makeshift refineries are understanding of how displacement near or still operating in northeast Syria.92 People through these sites—but not necessarily working and living near oil facilities are to them—might affect their environmental exposed to air, water, and soil pollution integrity. This analysis did not show a strong that can cause acute and long-term harm link between NDVI change and presence to human health, ranging from respiratory of IDPs. and skin problems to carcinogenic and genotoxic effects, organ damage, and 87 Dathan, Jennifer. 2019. The reverberating environmental effects of explosive weapon use in Syria. Action on Armed Violence. 88 Hincks, Joseph. March 15, 2021. How Syria’s Decade-Long War Has Left a Toxic Environmental Legacy. Time. 89 2011 baseline data from https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/AG.LND.FRST.K2?locations=SY 90 https://www.protectedplanet.net/country/SYR 91 PAX. 2015. Amidst the debris… A desktop study on the environmental and public health impacts of Syria’s conflict. 92 PAX. 2021. War, Waste and Polluted Pastures. 124 S Y R I A J O I N T D A M A G E A S S E S S M EN T O F S EL E C T ED C I T I E S psychological impacts. Studies have indicated Aleppo also indicated that potential public strong correlations between oil-polluted health and environmental risks could arise in soil and water and a range of health risks.93 the proximity of damaged industrial sites.94 The 2017 WB environmental assessment in Limitations Several limitations of the assessment are Oil and damaged industries: current identified for the methodology adopted by the assessments of environmental damage and Environment Sector of the DA, and these merit health risks are unable to specify the damage discussion: or costs; further studies are needed to evaluate total environmental damage. Assessment of potential sources of special waste streams from damaged assets: the Costing of environmental degradation and DA should be seen as an indicative exercise for valuation of ecosystem services: Studies are further assessments specific to environmental needed to better understand the impacts of impacts of damaged assets. While most such conflict-driven degradation and its effects on assets produce environmental impacts and local communities. require specialized interventions to mitigate or minimize environmental hazards, the Based on recommendations from studies availability of needed information constitutes referred to in this DA and other related a major limitation of this DA. In future DAs, assessments, further environmental damage sectors such as WASH, Power, and Transport may be limited by enhancing: could be assessed to identify environmental damage, for example, from untreated Environmental governance through building wastewater, oil and chemicals, scrap vehicles, capacity, developing management plans, and and other debris. supporting affected populations. Impacts of displacement and conflict Forest, water, and biodiversity protection on natural resources: further studies by preventing forest fires, restoring forests are required to determine how conflict and habitats, preventing degradation, and population movements affect forests monitoring water resources, and supporting and natural resources, identify measures livelihoods. to manage these resources, and provide waste management systems and physical Oil pollution control through identifying infrastructure, fuel, and livelihoods for environmental pollution hotspots, assessing vulnerable populations. pollution of ground and surface waters, soil, and air quality and associated health risks to communities, and urgently dealing with pollution. 93 PAX. 2020. A river of death. 94 World Bank. 2017. The Toll of War. The economic and social consequences of the conflict in Syria.