Issues of Inclusivity: Ensuring inclusive growth from trade and RVC integration Executive Summary Understanding inclusion dynamics in trade and including those considerations into development of and integration into regional value chains provides an important opportunity for poverty reduction and inclusive growth. Benefits of poverty reduction and positive impacts on gender from trade however are not automatic and the impact of trade reform is not the same for women and men (WB-WTO 2015). While it is accepted that trade can contribute to poverty reduction, reducing gender gaps and ensuring inclusive growth, there are still unanswered questions. There is an opportunity to ensure inclusive benefits from RVC development in SADC. What is known is that:  Women, informal workers and those in rural areas face particular and often higher barriers to integrate into trade.  Reducing barriers for goods that the poor consume and improving access to external markets for the goods that the poor produce will all help to maximize the benefits from trade for poverty reduction.  There are many constraints and risks to full inclusive benefits from trade and RVC development being experienced by all. Not least of all, the incomplete data available and lack of a systematic and rigorous approach to identify where the opportunities, constraints and risks are and where and how opportunities for full inclusiveness can be best and most effectively exploited.  Various interventions are possible, and trade policy is an important way that governments can help to ensure these benefits are incurred, but they must be accompanied by appropriate and sound macroeconomic and sectoral policies.  SADC is characterized by high levels of unemployment, poverty and inequality. There has been progress in poverty reduction, but there is a way to go and it remains one of the greatest challenges for the region. Poverty reduction is at the top of the SADC agenda and gender is acknowledged as an essential component in inclusive growth. Priority value chains in the agriculture/agro-processing and mining/extractives sectors identified by SADC, the SISR and the World Bank ASA work have varying degrees of potential development impacts. The development impacts of mining value chains are still not clear, particularly given the large capital constraints and specific barriers to entry and involvement for women. The nature of agriculture/agro-processing value chains however mean that they provide the opportunity for large development impacts. Soya and fish/aquaculture value chains are both SISR and ASA-identified priority value chains. They also both have good potential for regional development within SADC and for promotion of inclusive growth.  Soya: This is an important current and future crop of the region and includes extensive production by smallholders, many of whom are women, and are already integrated to a degree into the value chain. Analysis on regional and global competitiveness for the entire soya VC and products within it are positive. Furthermore, trade and supporting policies could all have an impact on further improving the productivity of smallholders and giving them access to regional markets and offering opportunities for further integration into existing segments of the VC. Interventions in the region have already shown that for example when made available women are eager to access improved inputs, although there are still significant gender-specific constraints to overcome.  Fish/aquaculture: This sector is very important in the SADC region and a large contributor to GDP. Several countries are expected to become competitive in the global export of fish and fish products over the next five years with several also able to move into new products in export markets. The role of fisheries in poverty alleviation is widely accepted with various strategies, organizations and programs focused on regional development of the sector. Significant development impacts are possible regarding poverty alleviation, food security, income generation and positive gender-specific impacts. Both smallholders and women continue to face constraints though in their entry into and operation in the VC. 1 Issues of Inclusivity: Ensuring inclusive growth from trade and RVC integration Introduction Understanding inclusion dynamics in trade and including those considerations into development of and integration into regional value chains provides an important opportunity for poverty reduction and inclusive growth. Benefits of poverty reduction and positive impacts on gender from trade however are not automatic and the impact of trade reform is not the same for women and men (WB-WTO 2015). There is a close and direct relationship between inequality and poverty, with those experiencing some of the highest levels of poverty part of those groups that also experience the most inequality (WB-WTO 2015). Trade provides various routes through which inclusion can occur: empowerment of women and the poor by creating new and/or better jobs, making goods consumed by the poor (particularly food products) cheaper and removing non-tariff barriers (NTBs). Enabling the poor and women to engage more effectively in trade can also provide the necessary knowledge to increase productivity or enter into activities that are further downstream the value chain and/or include value addition. The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) include three goals that address, poverty, inequality and gender; SDG 1 No Poverty, SDG 5 Gender Equality and SDG 10 Reduced Inequalities. Work by UNU-WIDER determines that “high initial levels of inequality limit the effectiveness of growth in reducing poverty while growing inequality increases poverty directly for a given level of growth� (Fosu 2011). While it is accepted that trade can contribute to poverty reduction, reducing gender gaps and ensuring inclusive growth, there are still unanswered questions. Why inclusion matters, what gaps still exist in our understanding and how we go about filling those and related interventions must be considered. In the first part of this paper, high level reasons for why inclusion matters and opportunities available as well as constraints that prevent the poor and women from exploiting these opportunities will be looked at. Then, suggestions on what governments and donors/key stakeholders can do to ensure the benefits of trade for all will be made. The second part of this paper will focus on SADC, based forthcoming work by the World Bank as part of an ASA on Support to the SADC Industrialization Strategy. Then, based on RVCs that were prioritized by SADC and the ASA work focus will turn to two RVCs (soya and fish/aquaculture) with a demonstration of their potential for and impacts on poverty and inclusion. There is an opportunity to ensure inclusive benefits from RVC development in SADC. Consideration of opportunities, constraints and potential recommendations for RVC integration and upgrading will help to ensure that everyone in SADC will benefit; not just the rich, urban, men or rent-seeking stakeholders. This paper aims to demonstrate the following:  Women, informal workers and those in rural areas face particular and often higher barriers to integrate into trade. They have less access to technical and vocational training, are less mobile, have less time and less access to information about the opportunities that exist due to trade.  Reducing barriers for goods that the poor consume and improving access to external markets for the goods that the poor produce will all help to maximize the benefits from trade for poverty reduction.  Trade policy is an important way that governments can help to ensure these benefits are incurred, but they must be accompanied by appropriate and sound macroeconomic and sectoral policies.  SADC is characterized by high levels of unemployment, poverty and inequality. There has been progress in poverty reduction, but there is a way to go and it remains one of the greatest challenges for the region. Poverty reduction is at the top of the SADC agenda and gender is acknowledged as an essential component in inclusive growth.  Focus of the SADC Industrialization Strategy and Roadmap (SISR) included six clusters of regional value chains (RVCs), of which the WB ASA focused on mining and agro-processing. Self-identification of priority RVCs for development and extensive work undertaken by the WB; 4 agro-processing and 3 minerals/extractives RVCs.  Development impacts are likely to be highest in agro-processing. Soya and fish/aquaculture are two examples from analysis done where development of the RVCs could have significant development impacts. Smallholders are highly involved in production and the potential for competitiveness high. There are also clear opportunities for overcoming gender-specific barriers that would ensure equitable distribution of benefits. The fish/aquaculture value chain has been the focus of many studies with 2 various strategies and programs applied, although constraints are still observed. The regional competitiveness and possibility of integration and positive impacts into related value chains such as livestock provides a positive drive to consider this value chain. In soya, future competitiveness is observed along with entire value chain and also within segments along the value chain in different countries in the region. Along with significant underused potential and possible international markets, analysis indicates the opportunity to develop soya into a regional and possible future global value chain. Trade, Poverty and Gender: Opportunities, constraints and risks Equality is not necessarily a natural outcome of the development process and proactive policies and allocation of resources is needed. Existing inequality can threaten growth; increased exports, capital inflows, higher commodity prices and income gains may not be equally distributed (UN Chronicle 2015). Income inequality has been growing on average within and across countries. This means that many now live in societies that are more unequal than they were in the past (UNDP 2013). The belief was that growth would alleviate inequality as all incomes increased (i.e. the Kuznets curve) with no consideration given to distribution of those income increases. Box 1 provides clarification on the definition of inequality and inclusive growth that is used throughout this paper. Box 1. Definition of inequality and inclusive growth There are several types of inequality but this paper will focus on economic inequality defined by the UN as “the inequality of outcomes in the material dimensions of well-being … that may be the result of circumstances beyond one’s control (ethnicity, family background, gender, and so on)� (UN/DESA 2015). Other types of inequality including inequality of opportunities such as unequal access to employment or education, while related, will not be focused on when considering inclusive analysis of GVCs. Inclusive growth includes equality in access to markets, resources and an unbiased regulatory environment for businesses and individuals (Endeval 2010, UNDP 2008). Inclusive market development focuses on the entire market and subsectors that are important to the poor by addressing barriers of lack of policy, limited access to finance and markets and missing value chain linkages (UNDP 2010). There are several ways in which trade and RVCs can significantly contribute to poverty reduction, reducing gender gaps and leading to overall more inclusive growth.  Spurring economic growth. Through increasing the size of the market, trade allows for rapid and sustained economic growth. Improved access to imports may also allow for knowledge spillovers (WB- WTO forthcoming)  Improved access to technology and removal of barriers to access to markets. Extreme poverty is far more predominantly in rural areas. Trade can help address this by supporting agricultural transformation by improving access to technology and inputs and removing barriers that prevent access to markets.  Increased competition and reduced prices. Trade can lead to improvements in overall welfare for the poor who spend relatively more on tradeable goods (Cravino and Levchenko 2017) and so would benefit from the increased competition and accompanying reduction in prices (Fajgelbaum and Khandelwal 2016). This increased competition would also contribute to poverty reduction if it undermines rents that were earned by monopolies and cartels in trade-related value chains.  Specific benefits for informal workers. Trade can increase the number of formal jobs available to those previously operating in the informal economy through growth of their firms or new job creation. Evidence shows export opportunities have promoted the reallocation of workers from MSMEs to the formal sector (McCaig and Pavcnik 2015).  Specific benefits for women. Trade has been notable in creating jobs for women. SMEs in particularly are a disproportionately large employer of women. It is acknowledged that trade helps the expansion of SMEs including through creation of and increased access to new markets (WTO 2017). Evidence also indicates that companies in developing countries that are involved in export activities tend to employ 3 more women than those that are not and export sectors tend to be the source of better jobs regarding pay and conditions (Jensen 2010). Recent work done by the IMF indicated that trade preferences in developed countries mean there are important incentives for location of assembly operations, again, a strong source of employment for women (Jensen 2010) in developing countries (IMF et al 2017). Trade can also help overcome cross-cutting constraints for women such as limited education and training opportunities, time constraints, limited access to finance and discrimination in labor markets. Interventions by governments can help overcome trade-related constraints such as discrimination at borders or male-dominated business networks.  Women’s economic empowerment. Trade also provides the opportunity for women’s empowerment as their involvement in tradeable VCs can enhance their status in society and increase their power within the household. Trade can affect how decisions are made. There are however constraints to trade liberalization bringing about improvements in inequality; it should not be considered automatic (Pavcnik 2017).  Constraints on measurement of inequality. It can be difficult to understand the true nature of poverty and inequality in countries/regions. There are several incomplete tools, although they can be used together to make a limited assessment. These tools include, for poverty and social analysis - the Poverty Impact Assessment (PIA), Poverty and Social Impact Analysis (PSIA), Human Development Impact Analysis (HDIA), Gender Analysis, Pro-poor Value Chain Analysis and Governance Analysis (ODI 2010).  Constraints on measurement of gender impacts on trade and value chains. While incomplete, there are various tools and methodologies for considering aspects of inclusivity in value chain analysis and specifically gender dimensions (Bamber & Staritz 2016, Kiratu & Roy 2010, Kucera & Tejani 2014), the support of small-scale producers (EC 2011), the role of the private sector (GIZ 2013), pro-poor (UNIDO 2011) and the role of innovation (IFPRI 2016). Recently, in 2017, UNCTAD developed the Trade and Gender Toolbox which aims to provide a systematic framework to evaluate the impact of trade reforms on women and gender inequalities prior to implementation of trade reforms. Box 2 provides more details on the toolbox and what it contains.  Constraints on availability of data. Databases to understand different industries, domestic versus export firms and types of GVCs and uncover gender and inequality dynamics systematically across countries and regionals are incomplete. There is an acknowledged gap, for example, in the analysis of how services trade impact the poor and little guidance available for governments. There is also little data on services trade flows available (WB-WTO forthcoming).  Gender data is available as part of the WB Enterprise surveys on female participation in firm ownership, management, and the workforce. It is comprised of five indicators in 139 countries1. Other relevant sources of data include the World Bank Women, Business and Law reports which measure gender inequality in the law. More generally, the World Bank Gender Data Portal is the World Bank Group’s comprehensive source for the latest sex-disaggregated data and gender statistics covering demography, education, health, access to economic opportunities, public life and decision-making, and agency2. Literature review uncovered some analysis that focuses on manufacturing in Asia and gender (Kucera & Tejani 2014). Some analysis can be done though case-studies and qualitative or anecdotal evidence. Multi-sectoral analyses have begun to appear related to apparel, electronic, horticulture, tourism and offshore services (Barrientos 2014, Christian et al 2013, Fontana 2009 and Bamber et al 2017).  Tariffs and non-tariff barriers. Evidence indicates that non-tariff barriers (NTBs) tend to fall more heavily on poor producers and consumers, and trade barriers in overseas markets that limit the access of a country’s exports tend to be more regressive. Furthermore, tariffs are higher on goods produced in rural areas and by women compared to men. On average women’s tariffs were estimated to be six percentage points higher than those faced by men, based on the type of work in which they are employed (Mendoza et al forthcoming). Compliance with agricultural Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) standards may make trade with developed countries more difficult, but restrictive regulations and heavy inspection procedures in developing countries also diminish trade between developing countries. 1 http://www.enterprisesurveys.org/Data/ExploreTopics/gender 2 http://datatopics.worldbank.org/gender/ 4  Macroeconomic volatility. Many of the countries in Sub-Saharan Africa and SADC are characterized by less than stable macroeconomic conditions. This type of volatility can reduce economic growth and adversely affect the distribution of income and general inequality (WB-WTO forthcoming).  Other constraints. Other constraints include those related to smallholders such as access to critical inputs, which is especially import for agricultural producers. Lack of access to better and/or improved seeds, fertilizer, application of improved practices such as irrigation, post-harvest handling etc. are a problem. These also affect the ability of rural agricultural producers to enter into contractual relationship with traders or larger export firms that may want to buy their commodities. Logistics and infrastructure constraints whether transport (road or rail) links and lack of storage to access markets and information on those markets and prices etc. all affect the extent to which they will be able to benefit from the opportunities created by trade. Box 2. UNCTAD Trade and Gender Toolbox (UNCTAD 2017) The Toolbox is a first attempt to provide a systematic framework to evaluate the impact of trade reforms on women and gender inequalities prior to implementation of those reforms and currently has been applied to the Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) between the European Union and the East African Community (EAC). The toolbox has four components: (i) descriptive analysis of gender inequalities and the economic context of the country; (ii) quantitative analysis of the expected consequences of the trade reform on the economy (e.g., exports, GDP, sectoral labor demand) and on women’s participation in the economy in particular; (iii) a checklist for gender-sensitive accompanying measures and monitoring indicators; and (iv) a Trade and Gender Index. The toolbox also provides a monitoring mechanism to help countries assess whether gender inequalities in the workplace and in access to resources have decreased or conversely increased following the trade reforms. There are also risks to inclusive growth that can come about due to trade; with greater trade openness comes greater exposure to external shocks.  Changing prices and reallocation of resources. Trade can lead to changing relative prices and reallocation of resources that mean income is not equitably redistributed. This may lead to a deepening of poverty or new groups being pushed into extreme poverty depending on which sector, value chain or activity is being affected and how.  Uncompetitive and import-competing sectors. Unemployment and/or lower wages that occur in uncompetitive or import-competing sectors as trade is opened up may see significant adjustment costs levied on the poor and marginalized. These are also the groups least likely to have endowments to deal with these costs before future opportunities appear or can be taken up, if they appear at all.  Exposure to shocks. Climate change, which is already an issue, will continue to affect farmers that decide to produce export crops through weather-related shocks and other external shocks.  Reduction in government revenue. In countries where the poor are reliant on public goods or government transfer programs, trade openness could reduce tariff revenues. This limits the available of the government to provide support to those who might need it most. Areas for intervention and support Policy is an important way in which the government can facilitate the role of trade in empowering marginalized groups. This is particularly the case as impacts from these types of policies can be a long time in materializing, even if they will eventually raise the overall productive capacity of the economy and ensure more inclusive growth (WB, unpublished).  Transaction costs. Addressing issues of adverse business climates, high transport and logistics costs, search costs and contractual risks means poor workers and consumers can better benefit from trade. Evidence indicates that transaction costs are higher in the rural areas where poverty tends to be higher and more marginalized groups are found, as well as falling most heavily on SMEs and women. 5  Improving access to finance. Access to finance continues to be an issue for poor countries and particularly women and this is also the case in SADC (Southern African Gender Protocol Alliance 2016 and 2017). Exporters and SMEs in Africa point to high interest rates and collateral requirements (even more so for women) as key factors to their lack of access. Extending government support for trade finance has been suggested as a complement to export driven growth strategies to overcome this constraint.  Improving access to information. Lack of access to various types of information impact on adequate inclusion into RVCs. These range from quality and standards for agricultural goods, to use of inputs and improved technology and of new tools and technology that would facilitate involvement. In many cases women are particularly constrained in their ability to form and be part of networks where they would have access to this information or the appropriate conditions provided in which information can be transmitted.  Infrastructure. Particularly for participation in RVCs and for agriculture/agro-processing, access to markets and ports etc. for the rural and often poor communities is a requirement. There is a lack of access to road and rail infrastructure, but also warehousing, cold chain storage and other constraints to participation and getting products from inland/rural areas to urban areas/markets and ports for export.  Simplification of trade requirements and border control procedures. Bureaucratic hurdles do and will continue to hinder trade with burdensome requirements for documents and in-person submission of permits etc. For example, in Tanzania export permits must be submitted in person at the Ministry and in the capital, Dar-es-Salam for agricultural products, meaning that poor producers in regions distant from the capital, or women who tend to be ‘time poor’ are effectively forced to sell locally at a lower price or trade on the informal market opening them up to greater risks at the border. The Simplified Trade Regime adopted by COMESA is a practical example of this. Policies to deal with these constraints would also be particularly relevant for small-scale cross border traders, of which the majority are women. Increasing transparency, simplifying procedures and limiting border officials’ discretion would reduce the time it takes traders but particularly women traders to conduct business across borders. Increasing childcare services at borders would reduce the burden of women’s household responsibilities. Providing training in gender sensitivity and introduction of policies such as a Charter for Cross-Border Traders and Brokers are being piloted at the Mwami/Mchinji border post dividing Zambia and Malawi. Promotion of use of technology and opportunities presented by technology could provide and interesting avenue for inclusion going forward. The WDR 2016 focused on development benefits from the digital revolution and concluded that the poor are less likely to have access to technology (World Bank 2016). E- commerce provides opportunities that can be particularly pro-poor by lowering the cost of trade significantly as small firms and entrepreneurs are least likely to be able to absorb high trade costs. Recent evidence indicates that e-commerce is facilitating participation of SMEs into international trade as they can reach customers at lower costs (WTO 2016). There is an additional specific gender angle as women can use the internet to bypass traditional distribution and business networks, and develop businesses that do not require them to travel so far from home where they often have additional care burdens for family etc. Technology can provide opportunities for poor people to leave the subsistence and low productivity jobs in which many of them are found to be operating and work more effectively. This is particularly relevant in the face of climate change and the agriculture/agro-processing cluster. Facilitating the entering of new markets and sectors, particularly the service sector can be undertaken by governments. The service sector is an emerging sector for all but also female employment and as data will show later in this paper is a disproportionately large employer of women in SADC. Services trade deregulation and liberalization could provide job creation in tradable services sectors such as tourism, health, finance, communications, logistics, distribution and B2B (Amiti and Wei 2007). Varying types of risks that will brought about by trade require different mitigating actions:  Appropriate mitigation measures/policies. Where trade brings about job losses or lower wages in newly uncompetitive sectors, governments will be key in understanding where these impacts are likely to be felt and the adjustment costs that will be borne by existing and new groups of poor and marginalized. 6 Stronger social safety net programs may be required to help these groups adjust before they can take advantage of new opportunities that come about due to increased trade. This may also require other policies, such as those defined as ‘trampoline policies’ by Obstfeld in 2016 including retraining dislocated workers.  Participation in RVCs by the poor. As the poor enter new RVCs they may be subject to shocks, whether price or weather-related, that they are less able to deal with. Insurance products in agriculture (although they do not always have a good track record), could be subsidized or made more affordable to smallholder farmers (Iturrioz 2009). Also, adoption of climate smart agriculture to transform and reorient agricultural systems to effectively support development and ensure food security in a changing climate such as those being undertaken in Tanzania (FAO 2016). Improving data and analysis is needed to fill gaps in understanding trade participation and effects on the poor and women. Better data will be needed for analysis, recommendation, design, implementation, monitoring and evaluating of trade policies and related interventions. Along with more investment and expansion of some of the tools presented in this paper, this could include use of new technologies including big data, GIS and cell phone surveys etc to more effectively monitor the opportunities, constraints and impact of trade on inclusion. Further information about data was addressed as a current constraint earlier in this section. SADC: Poverty and gender context SADC is characterized by high levels of unemployment, poverty and inequality . There have been improvements in intractable poverty through poverty reduction strategies as stated in the Southern Africa Economic Outlook 2018 (AfDB 2018). However, inequality persists and gender inequality is pervasive and evident in customary practices, labor market discrimination, unequal access to social services and economic resources such as land. This section will present the SADC context and results of a literature review including an extensive one undertaken during the WB Support to the SADC Industrialization Strategy on RVCs in SADC. Available databases were used, including WDI, ILOSTAT, SADC Statistics Yearbook, WB Gender Stats, the FAO Gender Landrights database, the SADC Gender Protocol barometer 2016 and 2017 and SADC Gender and Development Monitor 2016. Poverty eradication is at the top of the SADC agenda and is one of the greatest challenges for the region. The SADC Industrialization Strategy and Roadmap 2015-2063 (SISR) addresses poverty, inequality (SADC 2015b p.14,18) and gender (SADC 2015b, p. 19) and recognizes that trade liberalization (SADC 2015b p.vii) will contribute to sustainable and equitable development and poverty reduction. It identifies much of the population as living in rural areas where unemployment, underemployment and poverty rates are higher than in cities and infrastructure falls short of levels necessary for a thriving agricultural economy. Existing savings and investment levels also continue to fall short of levels necessary for structural transformation, economic diversification and poverty reduction. Poverty There has been progress in poverty reduction in SADC although levels are still high, and inequality indicators point to the depth of poverty and inequality across SADC countries. Upper middle-income countries (Botswana, Namibia and South Africa) have made significant progress in reducing poverty3 but some low-income countries continue to show high levels, including Madagascar and Malawi with 70.7 percent and 50.7 percent respectively over 2010-2015 (AfDB 2018). Lower-middle income countries also show less than encouraging levels with Lesotho and Swaziland registering 57.1 percent and 63 percent respectively (AfDB 2018). Figure 1 shows the evolution of poverty rates across different income groups within selected countries. Within SADC, South Africa, Botswana, Namibia, Comoros and Lesotho are outlier counties that drive income inequality, making the region’s Gini coefficient significantly higher than the global average (UNDP 2017). Inequality is lowest in low-income countries, as would be expected, but there have been signs of inequality deteriorating in Zambia and Malawi. Botswana and Madagascar show marginal improvements, but these are deemed insufficient based on the current depth of poverty in the countries (AfDB 2018). 3 Poverty headcount ratio at $1.90 a day (2011 PPP) (% of population) 7 Figure 1. Evolution of poverty rates by income groups in the Southern African region Gender Economic empowerment of women is central to sustainable development for overcoming poverty alleviation. Overcoming gender constraints and allowing for women’s full economic involvement would have large impacts on poverty reduction and overall growth. If women were to achieve their full economic potential, $12 trillion could be added to global GDP by 2025 (McKinsey Global Institute 2015). If Sub-Saharan Africa matched the progress toward gender parity of its fastest growing neighbor it is estimated that an incremental 12 percent or US$ 0.3 trillion could be added to overall 2025 global GDP (McKinsey Global Institute 2015). Furthermore, evidence points to women spending a higher proportion of their income on feeding and educating their children which would provide additional benefits to the entire country and region. Current policy on gender in SADC is centered about the SADC Protocol on Gender and Development (“the Protocol�). This was approved by SADC Heads of State and Government in 20084 and later entered into force after being ratified in 2013. As of 2017, when Botswana signed for the first time, the Protocol has been signed by nine of 16 countries leaving Mauritius as the only country not to have signed. The overall objectives of the Protocol, are among others, to provide for the empowerment of women, to eliminate discrimination and to achieve gender equity through the development and implementation of gender responsive legislation, policies, programs and projects. Articles 15 to 19 speak to issues related to productive resources and employment and by extension, industrialization; focusing on economic policies and decision making, the multiple roles of women, economic empowerment, access to property and resources and equal access to employment and benefits. Facilitation of development and application of skills in gender analysis and gender mainstreaming, policy and program/ project development, review planning and budget throughout SADC falls under the mandate of the Gender Unit which was established in 1998 and in 2017 subsumed under the Directorate of Gender and Social and Human Development. SADC is currently in the development phase of the Regional Multi-Dimensional Women Economic Empowerment Program (RMDWEEP) under the responsibility of the Gender Unit which has a significant link to industrialization. Gender is mentioned throughout the SISR as an essential component of the objective of inclusive growth but also as a specific cross-cutting issue. It is identified as a “crucial element for widening the scope and benefits of industrialization and regional integration� (SADC 2017 p.74). The costed Action Plan for the SADC Industrialization Strategy and Roadmap completed in March 2017 includes III.1 Cross-Cutting Issues – Increase 4 With the exception of Botswana and Mauritius. 8 women participation in the industrialization process, to increase the participation of women in industrial development and for the empowerment of women to be mainstreamed by 2020. The main task/activity under this is the RMDWEEP which plans to measure the number of women actively participating in national and regional value chains (at ownership, management and employee levels). Sub-activities will include instruments for empowering women under the program, a focus on self-employment and enhancing participation in value chains and small, medium and micro enterprises (MSMEs). Despite requests, no additional information on the Action Plan activities of RMDWEEP is currently available. Gender monitoring other than that done for the SADC Secretariat is carried out by groups such as GenderLinks who produce the annual SADC Gender Protocol Barometer and coordinate the Southern Africa Gender Protocol Alliance (SAGPA) in accordance with the SADC Protocol on Gender and Development. The gender gap in SADC is still high with a SADC Gender and Development Index5 average score of 61 percent (SAGPA 2017). Gender issues need to be understood when considering economic and social upgrading in RVCs as employment in developing countries (such as those in SADC) has been highly feminized. The specific roles, opportunities and constraints for marginalized groups, including women (Barrientos 2001, Fontana 2009), need to be included in analysis. Women are often favored in manufacturing GVCs where gender bias regarding dexterity and skills and the gender wage gap make women ‘cheaper’ and social norms consider their roles as temporary labor (Bamber & Staritz, 2016). Women are also generally considered to work in low-paying, labor- intensive roles that use the precariousness of female labor to deal with fluctuations in global demand. However, as the wage gap decreases, labor markets tighten and demand for better work conditions and security lead to lower incentives to hire women and firms revert to their preference for men (Carraway 2006). SADC Context The development trajectory of SADC shows evidence of a structural shift from agriculture straight to services. This is a similar path seen in other regions in Sub-Saharan Africa such as the EAC. This is different however to the gradual shift from agriculture to industry to services observed in other regions like Asia (UNCTAD 2018). Data available from labor surveys on ILOStat, as seen in Figure 2, clearly shows the predominant broad sector in which women are involved is agriculture, with a much smaller proportion in services (bar South Africa) and across the board very little registered employment in industry. Figure 8, later on in the paper, with data from Mozambique, Tanzania and Zimbabwe also reinforces the dominance of agriculture for men and particularly women with little registered activity in mining and quarrying. Figure 2. Employment by sex and economic activity for selected SADC countries in 2014 or 2015. 20000 Number of jobs 15000 10000 5000 0 Zimbabwe (2014) Tanzania (2014) South Africa (2014) Mozambique (2015) Men Agriculture (Broad sector) Men Industry (Broad sector) Men Services (Broad sector) Women Agriculture (Broad sector) Women Industry (Broad sector) Women Services (Broad sector) 5 Created by the SAGPA, the index is based on 36 indicators and includes tools such as the Gender & Rights Assessment (GRA) for Constitutional & Legal Rights, questions from the Gender Progress Score (GPS) from 2016 and findings from media monitoring. 9 Source: ILOSTAT There is extremely limited data on informal employment, but it plays an important role in understanding inequality dynamics. ILOStat provides some data, as seen in Figure 3, with women registering slightly higher informal employment in Zimbabwe and Madagascar and double the involvement in the informal sector in South Africa. Both men and women have figures of over 90 percent in Zimbabwe and Madagascar which indicate that further attention needs to be given to this sector of employment. Poor and marginalized men and women are disproportionately engaged in the informal sector and holding informal jobs. The lack of data, quantitative or qualitative on the informal economy means it is difficult to derive a true picture based solely on formal employment data (ILO, no date). 10 Figure 3. Informal employment and the informal sector for available countries. Zimbabwe (2014) South Africa (2015) Madagascar (2012) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Informal employment and informal sector as a percent of employment (%) Female Informal employment and informal sector as a percent of employment (%) Male Source: ILOSTAT Significant numbers of women are involved in the labor force and the opportunity to ensure their full benefit from the economy would benefit all. Figure 4 indicates that women’s participation in the labor force has been, and continues to be high, with all countries registering well over 50 percent except for Mauritius and South Africa and Swaziland, where figures have always been lower. Figure 4. Trend of Labor Force Participation by Women 2000-2014 Source: SADC Statistics Yearbook 2014 Data also shows us that women lack access to productive resources and face limitations in acquiring credit, both of which perpetuate the feminization of poverty. Women dominate in the lower paid areas of the labor force such as domestic work, teaching, nursing and secretarial and clerical services. Data indicates that women’s economic decision-making power and access to finance along with land and property ownership data and the gender wage gap do not paint an encouraging picture for women (Southern Africa Gender Protocol Alliance 2016). Figure 6 shows the incredibly low percentage of women across the region that own land alone; apart from the ‘outliers’ of Comoros and Malawi (32.9 percent and 36.6 percent, 11 respectively)6 with the next highest percentage of land ownership is in Mozambique at 12.6 percent. The figures are not much better for jointly owned land, although they are higher levels, but none exceed 37.6 percent seen in Mozambique. Figure 6. Access to resources – land ownership 40 % of women age 15-49 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Women who own land alone .. .. Women who own land jointly .. .. Source: World Bank Gender Statistics There is an increasing diversity of household types with those headed by women or women- maintained growing in number in the SADC region. This indicates the need to address gender gaps to ensure equal distribution of benefits for them and their households. Data in Figure 7 shows the decision- making power of women in the SADC region. It indicates some significant differences in the proportion of seats held by women in national parliaments. Even where the proportion of seats may be high, across the board there are far less women in ministerial level positions where decisions are made and implemented. In the cases where there are more women registered in ministerial level positions, it is only just above 40 percent (in South Africa) with only the Seychelles and Zambia next at around 30 percent. In no country is the proportion of women equal/ 50 percent. Figure 7. Women in political decision-making positions 2016 6 Customary law in Comoros grants privileges to women generally and eldest females particularly (AfDB 2010). Similarly, Malawi also has a land tenure system based on matrilineal rules and practices (Kaarhus 2010). However, evidence points to these not overcoming constraints that women regarding access. 12 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Proportion of seats held by women in national parliaments (%) Proportion of women in ministerial level positions (%) Source: World Bank Gender Statistics SADC RVCs: Opportunities and constraints No widely accepted, systematic way of integrating gender and inequality into value chains analysis exists. This has meant there is a reliance on incomplete data sets and qualitative information/ case studies to understand how and where poverty and gender can be integrated. With the growing importance of global and regional value chains in industrialization and development this needs to be given priority. Since the 1980s and 1990s nearly all manufacturing activities take place in GVCs, although African integration is still marginal (Baldwin 2011, Taglioni and Winkler, 2016). Joint work on trade and gender focused on women in GVCs is planned to be undertaken by Duke University which will include new data collection and an attempt at a systematic approach. An attempt by UNCTAD at a systematic approach to understand the gender impacts of trade has been made through the UNCTAD Trade and Gender Toolbox with details provided in Box 2, although there is no direct application of the value chain lens. Priority value chains identified by SADC, the SISR and the World Bank ASA work have varying degrees of potential development impacts. 23 detailed RVC briefs in mining and agriculture/agro- processing were drawn up as part of the World Bank work and include key data on regional demand, exports and imports and indications on current and future competitiveness. Employment generation and labor data has been the entry point for this report and as well as case studies uncovered through literature review. For this paper, focus will be put on soya and fish/aquaculture as examples of RVCs identified that have particularly development impacts. Priority value chains identified by the ASA are in agro-processing – meat, fish/aquaculture, oilseeds, soya and sugar and in mining – mining machinery, soda ash and cobalt. Mining The development impacts of mining value chains are still not clear, particularly given the large capital constraints and specific barriers to entry and involvement for women. Women are active in the sector but mainly at the artisanal level. Specific barriers include dangerous terrain and the informal and unregulated nature of artisanal mining all lead to significant risks for physical harm as well as exposing women to various forms of GBV. The SADC Gender Protocol Barometer 2016 found that women in Angola, DRC, Tanzania and South Africa still face difficulties participating in the extractives sectors. There is little evidence of any formal employment in mining for either men or women, with agriculture dominant across both sexes in the countries in which data was available. Figure 8 reinforces the dominance of the 13 agriculture sector for both men and women in selected countries, but also highlights the extremely low level of women in registered formal mining/quarrying jobs, with very few also registered for men. Figure 8. Employment by sex in Mining/Quarrying and Agriculture, forestry and fishing for selected countries 14000 12000 Number of jobs 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 Mozambique (2015) Tanzania (2014) Zimbabwe (2014) Women B. Mining and quarrying (ISIC-Rev.4) Women A. Agriculture; forestry and fishing (ISIC-Rev.4) Men B. Mining and quarrying (ISIC-Rev.4) Men A. Agriculture; forestry and fishing (ISIC-Rev.4) Source: ILOSTAT Future opportunities for mining value chains may be positive but the inclusivity aspect is often overlooked. Opportunities include those uncovered in recent work focused on benefits to local communities by the World Bank (World Bank 2017) and the work concluded that on average mining communities experience positive yet limited welfare benefits. Mining companies for example employ mostly nationals and data from South Africa indicated that gold mining had a 1.8 employment multiplier through backward linkages and expenditure effects. Tanzania also saw an influx of jobs from large-scale mining. The report includes much empirical evidence of the impact of resource abundance on local living standards through employment for men and women in different sectors. Kotsadam and Tolonen (2015) indicate women switching to service sectors and men to skilled manual jobs but participation for women dropping. Women do not switch back to agriculture after closure of mines and are observed to leave the workforce, which is an important dynamic to consider in continued analysis of VCs. Direct and indirect employment will continue to be generated from the mining sector but if it is indeed a priority for SADC to develop the extractives/mining sector and associated value chains there will need to be much further investigation into the inclusivity aspects. It is important that upgrading does not just come about through the entry of large firms with the capital capacity for large scale mineral beneficiation which would have limited development and inclusivity impacts. Agriculture The nature of the agriculture value chains means that they provide the opportunity for large development impacts. There is a large involvement of those in the lower economic groups and the potential for commercialization of the chains. Many of the staple food crops show regional RVC integration opportunities and opportunities for poverty reduction through increased incomes and food security. As with mining, there are substantial variations across countries and value chains regarding employment and 14 development impacts. Women continue to face barriers in agriculture and constraints linked to lack of mobility and occupational gender-segregation along the value chain and wage gaps. In many agriculture VCs women are found upstream; working in production, processing and domestic, small-scale marketing. GrowAfrica 2015 indicated that incomes for 10,000 smallholders could increase by 50-300 percent if countries could move upstream, realistically dealing with addressable demand for industrial cassava. Women are found to be lacking in the higher echelons of management and ownership of enterprise in Tanzania (Loconto 2015) and generally dominate at the lower-value end of the value chain of in production of subsistence rather than cash crops (Khasa & Msuya 2016). Prevailing socio-cultural contexts also negatively affect the inclusion and upgrading of women into agriculture value chains. As previously mentioned, systematic analysis and the data it would require does not exist to understand the poverty and gender dynamics in RVCs. There is also no systematic way to determine the development impacts of various RVCs versus another. Extensive literature review and case studies have allowed us to attempt to make qualitative determinations. Given the importance of agriculture/agro- processing for the rural poor and women, two of the five agro-processing RVCs7 in SADC are considered below – soya and fish/aquaculture. Soya Soya is an important current and future crop for the region and includes extensive production by smallholders (around 20 percent) who have already integrated to a degree into the value chain. Production processes are generally poor (except for commercial farmers in South Africa and Zambia), defined by low use of inputs, limited irrigation outside Zambia and poor agronomic practices particularly among smallholders (Imakando et al 2017, Khrisnan et al 2017, Lubungu et al 2013 and Opperman et al 2011). Soy was self-selected by South Africa, Zimbabwe, Zambia, DRC, Malawi and Madagascar and data analysis shows countries already specialized and competitive in different segments of the value chain. Analysis on competitiveness for the entire soya RVC and segments within the RVC are positive. Very- upstream competitiveness is seen in Malawi and Namibia, midstream competitiveness (i.e. in oils) in South Africa, Mozambique and Tanzania and to a degree very-downstream competitiveness (i.e. oil cake) in Zambia and Mauritius. Exports are increasing and most trade is already intra-regional, 93.4 percent in 2014/158. The region has a revealed comparative advantage both globally and regionally and analysis indicates that Malawi and South Africa have the potential to be highly competitive across the entire value chain and in numerous products in the next five years. Zambia may be competitive in soya meal and oil as well in the next five years. ITC export potential analysis shows significant unused potential in producing soya beans for the African and Middle Eastern markets and even greater export potential for EU/EFTA and BRICS+11 markets. Trade and supporting policies could all have an impact on improving the productivity of smallholders and giving them access to regional markets and further integration into the existing value chain. For example, currently 10 percent of the soy which makes up around 30 percent of poultry and other animal feed is produced by smallholders (Bagopi et al 2014). Contract farming arrangements between large and small farmers and aggregation of smallscale farmers could have significant impacts on poverty reduction (Imakando et al 2017). Opperman et al (2011) estimated that by overcoming constraints in the value chain, production could be doubled by 2020 and general US$217 million in increased income, raising the household incomes of over 400,000 smallholders. Existing soybean farmers could see increases of US$30 due to increased productivity and new farmers US$300 for entry into production. South Africa, Zimbabwe and Malawi are growing from the largest base of smallholders with those in Malawi benefitting most due 7 23 Regional Value Chains briefs were completed as part of the ASA work. 8 Analysis from WBG team calculations based on WITS-Comtrade during the ASA work. 15 to production domination (160,000 smallholders involved in 91 percent of production) (AICC 2016). Zambia is estimated to have 124,000 potential smallholder beneficiaries and Mozambique 52,000 (Opperman et al 2011). TehcnoServe (2011) estimated potential increases in income of US$138 per year for 35,000 smallholders and an accompanying increase in production that would have spillover effects driving faster growth of the livestock and livestock processing industries and additional jobs that value chain. Evidence shows that when made available women are eager to access improved inputs, however there are still significant gender-specific constraints to overcome. Lubungu et al indicated the extra potential for women witnessed by the 50 percent of seed buyers being female from Community Markets for Conversation (COMACO), a Zambian registered non-profit company that forms business partnerships with rural communities. In Tanzania women were strongly represented at the SME level as entrepreneurial processors and so developments in the VC could have positive impacts (Wilson 2015). However, a survey undertaken in Mozambique of female soybean producers indicated that due to realities of shared land ownership women do have little decision-making power and rarely interact with extension service providers (Findeas et al 2016). Fish/aquaculture The fisheries and aquaculture sector is very important in the SADC region. Marine industrial fishing was determined by De Graaf and Garibaldi in 2014 as the largest contributor to GDP for the Southern African region. Fish/aquaculture was self-selected by Angola, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, Seychelles, South Africa, Zambia, Madagascar, Malawi, Tanzania. Although SADC did not have a global or regional comparative advantage in export of internationally traded fish products in 2014/159, there were high global RCA scores for individual products. Namibia, Madagascar and South Africa are expected to become more competitive in global exports of fish and fish products generally over the next five years with other countries becoming more competitive in specific products. ITC also provides a substantial list of SADC countries that have the potential to move into new products in export markets (ITC 2015). Mozambique and Tanzania both have significant untapped potential to increase current exports of a variety of products. The role of fisheries in poverty alleviation is widely accepted with various strategies, organizations and programs focused on regional development of the sector. The SADC Protocol on Fisheries focused on increasing household food security, incomes and job opportunities while reducing poverty (SADC 2001). The SADC Fisheries Programme (2015-2020) looks to support regional trade capacity and value chain development and aquaculture appears prominently in the SADC Food and Nutrition Security Strategy (2015-2025). SADC have done analysis of the sector, as in 2016 that found a combination of lack of human and financial capacity, inadequate infrastructure, insufficient harmonization of policies, institutional challenges and over-exploitation of resources that were holding back value chain formation (SADC 2016a). A project between the SADC Secretariat and WorldFish in 2017 looking at intra-regional fish trade still found there to be significant constraints including absence of an enabling environment for cross-border fish processing and trading and lack of formal market access. This led to establishment of eleven harmonized fish standards to facilitate trade (SADC 2017a) Significant development impacts derived from fisheries RVC development are evident in the literature regarding poverty alleviation, food security, and income generation and gender-specific development impacts. Regarding impacts on small producers there is evidence that supporting their development could provide employment and income enhancing opportunities (Genschick et al 2017). For the poor/food insecure, this value chain could also be a valuable contributor (Bene and Nozomi 2011, 9 Analysis from WBG team calculations based on WITS-Comtrade during the ASA work. 16 Longley et al 2014). Women contribute substantially to primary production in aquaculture and make up 90 percent of the workforce at the processing stage. They continue to face barriers of lack of control over assets, constraining gender norms, time and labor constraints that hold back their equitable benefit (CGIAR 2017). 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