CLR Review Independent Evaluation Group Completion and Learning Review Arab Republic of Egypt FY15-FY21 Country Partnership Framework October 13, 2022 Ratings CLR Rating CLRR (IEG) Rating Development Outcome: Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory WBG Performance: Good Good I. Executive Summary i. This review of the World Bank Group’s (WBG) Completion and Learning Review (CLR) covers the period of the Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for FY15-19, and the updated CPF at the Performance and Learning Review (PLR) dated April 3, 2019. The CPF period was extended by two years at the PLR stage. ii. The WBG program was consistent with the government’s strategy and addressed major constraints to Arab Republic of Egypt’s development, pursuing overall goals of poverty reduction, creation of productive employment opportunities, and maintenance of social and political stability. It represented a significant departure from previous WBG- supported strategies for Arab Republic of Egypt (Egypt), more than doubling the lending program compared with the recent past. Lending made a strategic shift away from infrastructure financing (the focus of previous programs) toward institutional and policy development. The program was based on three focus areas – (i) improving governance, (ii) improved opportunities for private sector job creation, and (iii) social inclusion -- with a cross- cutting theme of environmental sustainability. In relation to these focus areas, objectives were appropriate, with many of the objectives complementary to one another. Program design was selective, refraining from lending in areas that could attract private sector investment and leaving IFC and MIGA to take an appropriate role in those areas, and focusing in sectors with strong commitment to strengthening institutions and increasing the state’s accountability to citizens. CLR Reviewed by: Peer Reviewed by: CLR Review Coordinator Judyth L. Twigg Nils Fostvedt Jeff Chelsky, Manager, IEGEC IEGEC, Consultant IEGEC, Consultant Xiaolun Sun, Acting CLRR Coordinator, IEGEC iii. IEG rates the CPF development outcome as Moderately Satisfactory. Of the sixteen objectives, seven were Achieved, two were Mostly Achieved, and seven were Partially Achieved. Under the first Focus Area, there was important progress in strengthening energy sector governance and improving fiscal management and transparency. Citizen engagement and satisfaction were strengthened in the housing and social support sectors, but there is little evidence of progress in public sector performance measured by use of e-services, e- procurement, or the use of a performance measurement framework. Under the second Focus Area, access to finance was improved for micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs), especially those led by women and youth, and targets were exceeded for the generation of new conventional power capacity, greenhouse gas reduction relevant to engagements in renewable energy, and farmers’ access to new and improved irrigation and drainage services. However, there is no evidence presented on the effect of new laws passed to strengthen business regulation, the target was not achieved for enhanced safety of rail transport, and the program did not provide access to new agriculture services as planned. Under the third Focus Area, households benefited from increased access to grid-connected natural gas supply and to quality primary health care services. The program’s support for labor-intensive public works created new jobs, and two new cash transfer programs reached double the planned number of direct beneficiaries. However, neither affordable housing nor sanitation and sewage services were expanded to planned levels, and progress in the education sector was measured only by outputs rather than outcomes. iv. World Bank Group performance was Good. Program design was adequate, addressing Egypt’s most binding development constraints through an ambitious but selective program. The CPF effectively drew lessons from the previous CLR, and from intensive dialogue with the government and stakeholders. The suite of WBG interventions was capable of achieving the CPF objectives, with innovation in the use of complementary ASA, policy lending, investment lending with disbursement-linked indicators, and PforRs. Risks were well identified and mostly well mitigated, with the important exception of safeguards-related risks under the water and transport sectors. There were also some shortcomings with the results framework. Some objectives were not adequately measured by the indicators due to a focus on outputs rather than outcomes, and there was no measurement of increased private sector job creation. The WBG adjusted the portfolio across the CPF, increasing project size while concentrating on fewer, more carefully selected and better-performing operations, and adding new projects in response to changing government priorities. Coordination within the WBG and with development partners was strong. Project documents indicate that, with the major exception of worksite safety for some projects, supervision was consistently well done, with complete and candid reporting as well as effective communication with counterparts and stakeholders. IFC took a proactive approach to portfolio management, including stress-testing all exposures, helping clients restructure their balance sheets, and selectively cancelling undisbursed commitments in agreement with clients. MIGA’s ongoing support to foreign investors in Egypt was during periods when the political risk insurance industry’s capacity for Egypt has been constrained, sending a strong signal that MIGA is open for business in the country. 2 v. Overall, the WBG provided good support to address Egypt’s development priorities. The size and timing of the CPF program signified the WBG’s willingness to support a fledgling but significant government reform plan despite high levels of risk. However, inadequate evidence is provided to show that the diverse array of interventions intended to stimulate the much-needed private sector job creation actually produced results. In addition, there were major shortcomings in safeguards reporting and supervision that merit additional attention from WBG management. vi. IEG broadly agrees with the CLR’s lessons, particularly on the importance of precision in defining objectives and associated indicators, and of attentive integration of cross-cutting themes. IEG notes three additional lessons. First, as the program’s results framework did not provide adequate measurement of all dimensions of each objective, an additional lesson is that tracking of results and impact of each element of each objective better serves assessment of outcomes and learning. Second, when supported by strong, mutually reinforcing mitigation measures, the WBG can successfully take informed risks with major investments. Third, full and clear acknowledgment and discussion of health and safety safeguards transgressions is essential to maintaining the Bank’s reputational integrity. II. Strategic Focus Relevance of the CPF 1. Country Context. Egypt is a middle-income country with a fast-growing population (2.0 percent average annual population growth from 2004-2018, compared with less than a 1.2 percent MIC average). Bold economic reforms initiated in 2004-2005 contributed to average annual economic growth averaging 4.6 percent during 2004-2020. This growth, however, has only recently begun to produce socioeconomic improvement for Egyptian households, with the national poverty rate having risen from 21.6 percent in 2008/2009 to 32.5 percent in 2017/2018 before decreasing to 29.7 percent in 2019/2020. Regional disparities are pronounced. Labor force participation and formal employment have been low and trending downward. Egypt’s 2020 Human Capital Index was substantially below the average for peer economies (0.49 vs 0.56). Low formal employment is accompanied by low capital accumulation. The private sector’s share of total investment is small. Egypt’s main development challenges are centered on the need to expand market opportunities for the private sector to invest, expand, and create productive jobs, and for effective investments in human capital in order to realize a demographic dividend. 2. Government Strategy and CPF. The CPF (FY15-21) straddled several consecutive government reform strategies. These followed a consistent pursuit of high economic growth, job creation, and development of human capital. Egypt’s 2015 Sustainable Development Strategy, “Vision for the Year 2030,” focused on economic development, improving governance, and social justice and inclusion, highlighting the leading role the private sector was to play, as well as the need for greater transparency and accountability in the public sector. An update enacted after President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s re-election in April 2018, entitled “Egypt Takes Off,” had five pillars: (a) ensuring national security and implementing foreign policy priorities; (b) 3 promoting human development; (c) securing economic development and boosting government performance and efficiency; (d) increasing employment; and (e) enhancing standards of living. The most recent strategy, the 2021 “National Structural Reform Program,” sustains focus on strong private sector-led growth to create durable employment and improve external resilience. The Egyptian government enacted prompt macro-fiscal and social policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic, including social safety net measures for informal workers and women in poorer areas as well as mobilization of health facilities. 3. Relevance of Design. The WBG program was consistent with the government’s strategy and addressed Egypt’s most binding development constraints, as expressed in the 2015 Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD). 1 Planned projects dramatically increased the size of the lending program compared with the previous strategy period and shifted away from infrastructure financing toward institutional and policy development. It was based on three focus areas – (i) improving governance, (ii) improved opportunities for private sector job creation, and (iii) social inclusion -- with a cross-cutting theme of environmental sustainability. The latter was appropriate, given the extent to which environmental concerns had long been a priority in Egypt. The objectives effectively covered the three focus areas and were complementary to one another. Program design reflected lessons learned from the previous Country Assistance Strategy (FY06-FY11) and Interim Strategy Note (FY12-FY14), including the need to marry large infrastructure projects with institutional reform, the importance of flexibility in high-risk political environments such as Egypt, and the importance of engaging with civil society and other stakeholders. It was selective, refraining from lending in areas that could attract private sector investment, with IFC and MIGA taking an appropriate role in those areas. Cooperation among the WBG arms was particularly visible in the second and third focus areas, where IFC investments and advisory services were to complement and deepen the impact of development policy operations and investment projects, and the WBG was to facilitate dialogue between the business community and the government to explore investment opportunities including in health, education, and low-income housing. 4. The 2019 PLR maintained the three focus areas. After the Egyptian currency was floated in November 2016, a two-year extension of the CPF at the PLR stage facilitated consolidation of adjustments made in response to the next generation of reforms on which the government had embarked. The PLR cited three emerging development issues to shape the remainder of the CPF period: management of the social consequences of economic reforms – elimination of subsidies and currency liberalization; reduction of the role of the state and advancement of private sector-led economic recovery; and the need to address growing regional and spatial inequalities, high fertility rates, water scarcity, and climate change. Program adjustments responded to these issues with increased emphasis on support for household welfare and the social safety net, though this expansion of the public sector may have overshadowed or crowded out measures to improve the enabling environment for the 1The 2015 SCD identified three “highest priorities”: macroeconomic stabilization, continued energy subsidy reform, and improvement in public governance. It also identified “important and urgent” sectoral governance reforms in private sector competition policy and regulatory transparency, agriculture, water, urban planning, and public service delivery. 4 private sector. As part of its COVID-19 Fast-Track Facility, IFC provided US$100 million to its client financial institution to strengthen Egypt’s banking sector and improve access to finance. Results Framework 5. The results framework contained two to three indicators to measure achievement of most objectives. The indicators were measurable, with baselines and targets specified in most cases, and data were available for most indicators. The CPF retained a 2019/2020 target year for many indicators even when the CPF period was extended for two years to 2021. In some cases, the indicators were well constructed to cover all aspects of the objective; for example, both the access and quality dimensions of Objective 12 on increased access to quality health care services were captured by indicators on coverage and facility accreditation. However, in some cases, outputs rather than outcomes were measured. For example, the target for Objective 3 on national performance measurement was the launch of a framework, which did not measure implementation of the framework or its impact. Similarly, under Objective 4 on strengthened citizen engagement in service delivery, having conducted a satisfaction survey is not likely by itself to strengthen citizen engagement, and the indicator did not require reporting of the survey’s results or improvement of those results. Under Objective 16 on improved education sector governance, the publication of a white paper and launch of an IBRD-financed project were output rather than outcome indicators; there was no direct measurement of improved sector governance. In other cases, the indicators did not measure all dimensions of the objective. Achievement of Objective 6 – a broad and important objective on improving the regulatory environment for private investment -- was not fully measured by the indicators, which, for example, did not capture the impact of enacted laws and regulations on the investment climate. Across the second focus area, none of the indicators measured improved opportunities for private sector job creation. 6. Although the results framework was revised at the PLR stage, many of IFC's expected contributions were not monitored by CPF indicators (Objectives 5, 6, 8, 9). At CPF formulation, there was not a relevant IFC pipeline that could be quantified with indicators. With no adjustments to this situation at the PLR stage, IFC’s contributions could only be captured at the project level. Alignment 7. The program was reasonably well aligned with the corporate goals of eliminating extreme poverty and sustainably increasing shared prosperity. Improving macroeconomic stability and energy subsidy reform required complementary measures to bolster and expand the broad social safety net in order to ensure that more Egyptians would not fall into poverty. Each of the six objectives under the third focus area targeted poor people and households. Improving the legal and regulatory environment for private sector job creation was a key step toward creating inclusive economic growth. More attention to the cross-cutting theme of environmental sustainability could have sharpened the program’s contribution to sustainable increases in shared prosperity. III. CPF Description and Performance Data 5 Advisory Services and Analytics 8. A wide-ranging ASA program included 81 activities and remained active throughout the CPF period, filling knowledge gaps identified in the CPF and informing lending. Energy sector reforms benefited from an array of activities that complemented and underpinned lending, including TA on reducing energy subsidies and expanding targeted social programs, restructuring the Egyptian Electricity Transmission Company, modernizing the oil and gas sector, and strengthening the capacity of the gas regulator. Development policy lending was underpinned by programmatic TA that assessed the investment climate, shared international best practices on addressing informality, and supported legislation to strengthen competition policy. A Doing Business Reform Advisory provided to the Ministry of Justice contributed to modernization of the case management system and enhancing the legal and regulatory insolvency framework. Reimbursable ASA included an FY16 TA that supported development of the government’s medium-term debt management strategy (MTDS). A White Paper on the education sector proposed policy measures and interventions that guided reform and investment across the CPF period. ASAs introduced during the CPF period helped expand the country program into strategic new areas, including digital transformation, human capital development, and Maximizing Finance for Development (MFD). 9. IFC’s program was complemented with 24 active advisory programs with an aggregate budget of over US$30 million, of which nine aimed at supporting access to finance; five at promoting energy efficiency, access to clean technologies, and renewable energy generation; five at strengthening entrepreneurship, corporate governance, and private sector development; three at supporting gender-neutral business decision making; two at supporting quality health care; and one at helping the government improve the regulatory and procedural requirements of import/export activities. Seven PCRs rated their development effectiveness mostly successful. Lending and Investments 10. At the start of the CPF period, outstanding IBRD commitments amounted to US$4.865 billion, consisting of 21 operations approved during FY10-FY14. Of these, one was approved in FY00 and closed in FY15; six were approved in FY05-FY09; and the remaining fourteen were approved in FY10-FY14. All but one were investment loans. The majority of the investment lending projects fell under Focus Area II (four large power generation projects and one smaller investment in wind power development, four projects on irrigation and drainage, two projects on financial access for MSMEs, and other projects on railways, the Cairo airport, natural gas transmission and distribution, and agricultural irrigation and drainage). Five of the investment lending projects fell under Focus Area III (short-term jobs for unskilled workers, health care quality, and access to sanitation and sewerage). An FY10 development policy operation (extended because of the political instability from 2011-2014) supported affordable mortgages, aligned with Focus Area III. None of the ongoing projects at the start of the CPF period fell under Focus Area I, and one, the FY06 Second Pollution Abatement Project, was more relevant to the cross-cutting theme of Environmental Sustainability than to any of the three Focus Areas. 11. New commitments increased dramatically during the CPF period and had a different composition from the portfolio outstanding at the start of the period. New IBRD 6 commitments totaled US$10.02 billion across 19 projects. More than twice as much was committed to Focus Area III (US$4.48 billion) as to Focus Area II (US$2.14 billion), with Focus Area I falling in between (US$3.15 billion). The larger amount for Focus Area III is particularly noteworthy given the presence of substantial budget support under the other two. Focus Area I was supported entirely by a three-operation programmatic development policy loan (DPL, US$3.15 billion, FY16, FY17, and FY18) that covered fiscal consolidation, reforms of energy subsidies, and improvements in energy governance. Under Focus Area II, that same series supported a pillar on improving the business environment. Focus Area II was also supported by another DPL on private sector development (US$1 billion), investment project lending (US$640 million) on railway improvement/safety and entrepreneurship for job creation, and a PforR (US$500 million) on local private sector development in Upper Egypt. Under Focus Area III, funds were committed through investment projects (US$2.63 billion) covering household gas connections, social safety nets, education and skills, and universal health insurance and health care, and PforRs (US$1.85 billion) on inclusive housing and rural sanitation. Projects added at the PLR stage included those supporting railway improvement and safety (US$440 million) and universal health insurance (US$400 million), as well as one project on air pollution and climate change (US$200 million) that fell under the CPF’s cross-cutting theme, and a US$50 million COVID-19 response project. Twenty-six trust funded projects totaling US$315 million were active during the CPF period covering all three focus areas and the cross-cutting theme, including projects on ministerial strengthening and statistics development (Focus Area I), employment, farm irrigation, transport regulation, and microfinance (Focus Area II), social safety net reform and sanitation and sewerage (Focus Area III), and vehicle recycling, marine ecosystems, and solid waste management (cross-cutting theme). 12. During the CPF period, 27 projects disbursing US$7.3 billion were closed and reviewed by IEG, most of which performed well. Performance at exit, measured by outcomes rated Moderately Satisfactory or higher (85.2 percent of projects, and 90.5 percent weighted by commitment value), was better than that for the Middle East and North Africa Region (80.5 percent of projects, and 86.7 percent by commitment value) and for the World Bank (77.7 percent of projects, and 84.2 percent by commitment value). There was an average of three projects at risk per year throughout the program (13.4 percent), which compares favorably with 27.9 percent for the Middle East and North Africa Region and 22 percent for the World Bank as a whole. The number of projects at risk peaked at five in FY15 and FY17 but declined to zero in FY20 and FY21, largely due to implementation of a Portfolio Improvement Plan that closed two problem projects without extension and granted limited extensions to five other projects. 13. IFC scaled up its program considerably during the CPF period. At inception, IFC’s outstanding portfolio was US$347 million in loans and US$420 million in equity (plus additional incidentals). Its commitments in FY22 amounted to US$1.45 billion, distributed along the following main sectors: finance 35 percent, manufacturing 18 percent, energy 16 percent, agriculture 13 percent, health 12 percent, and transport 6 percent. IFC also provided US$100 million of financing as part of its COVID-19 Fast-Track Facility, to further support the financial sector and continue supporting access to finance. IFC has been working extensively on promoting clean energy through energy efficiency interventions and renewable energy 7 investments. It supported the government in issuing the first green bond. It helped establish a private health facilities network and assisted several agribusinesses to advance along the agricultural value chain. IFC has also continued supporting growth of the entrepreneurship ecosystem, including through investments in venture capital funds, private equity funds, and startups. 14. IFC’s outstanding commitments in Egypt represent its largest exposure in the MENA region and its fifth largest globally. The portfolio is diversified by location (53 percent outside of Cairo) and instrument (46 percent loans, 43 percent equity, and 10 percent quasi‐equity). IFC’s portfolio has improved due to the resolution of two large nonperforming loans, dropping the ratio of nonperforming loans from 24.3 percent in 2015 to 6.4 percent at the end of 2018 (the most recent reported data). 15. IEG reviewed 14 XPSRs for projects falling within the review period (out of 57 total projects within the period) and 19 for the preceding period, rating eight as successful and six as unsuccessful. Contextual challenges included a strong devaluation of the Egyptian pound, difficult macroeconomic and regulatory conditions, highly competitive environments, and lack of maturity at inception, with the drivers of unsuccessful ratings varying with each project. 16. MIGA’s portfolio had a gross exposure of US$210 million in 2015, in three active guarantees in the oil and gas and manufacturing sectors. At the end of the CPF period, MIGA’s total exposure reached US$550 million in 27 projects, mainly in energy. Solar infrastructure represents 39 percent of the total exposure, wind power infrastructure 22 percent, two oil and gas investments 30 percent, and a manufacturing company nine percent. MIGA’s guarantees supported mainly IFC clients. MIGA has been, alongside the WB and IFC, a key enabler of Egypt’s renewable energy sector. IV. Development Outcome A. Overall Assessment and Rating 17. IEG rates the CPF development outcome as Moderately Satisfactory. Of the sixteen objectives, seven were Achieved, two were Mostly Achieved, and seven were Partially Achieved. Under the first Focus Area, improved governance, there was important progress in strengthening energy sector governance and improving fiscal management and transparency. Citizen engagement and satisfaction were strengthened in the housing and social support sectors, but there is little evidence of progress in public sector performance measured by use of e-services, e-procurement, or the use of a performance measurement framework. Under the second Focus Area, improved opportunities for private sector job creation, access to finance was improved for MSMEs, especially those led by women and youth, and targets were exceeded for the generation of new conventional power capacity, greenhouse gas reduction relevant to engagements in renewable energy, and farmers’ access to new and improved irrigation and drainage services. However, there is no evidence presented on the effect of new laws passed to strengthen business regulation, the target was not achieved for enhanced safety of rail transport, and the program did not provide access to new agriculture services as planned. Ultimately, no information was provided on the creation of jobs in the private sector. Under the 8 third Focus Area on social inclusion, households benefited from increased access to grid- connected natural gas supply and to quality primary health care services. The program’s support for labor-intensive public works created new job opportunities, and two new cash transfer programs reached double the planned number of direct beneficiaries. However, neither affordable housing nor sanitation and sewage services were expanded to planned levels, and progress in the education sector was measured only by outputs rather than outcomes. 18. Cross-cutting theme: Environmental sustainability. Although the CLR does not contain a direct discussion of the program’s performance on environmental sustainability, relevant achievements are reported under some of the objectives. The IFC’s work under Objective 1 fostered development of Egypt’s green bond market, making it the first MENA country to incorporate the green economy into its state budgeting. Under Objective 7, while there were significant IFC investments in renewable energy, no verifiable information is provided on the level of resulting greenhouse gas reduction. Objectives CLR Rating CLRR (IEG Rating Moderately Moderately Focus Area I: Improving Governance Satisfactory Satisfactory Objective 1: Improved fiscal management Achieved Achieved Objective 2: Improved fiscal transparency Partially Achieved Partially Achieved Objective 3: Established evidence base for Partially Achieved Partially Achieved improved public sector performance Objective 4: Strengthened citizen Mostly Achieved Achieved engagement in service delivery Objective 5: Strengthened energy sector Achieved Achieved governance Focus Area II: Improved Opportunities for Moderately Moderately Private Sector Job Creation Satisfactory Unsatisfactory Objective 6: Improved regulatory Partially Achieved Partially Achieved environment for private investment Objective 7: Increased energy generation Achieved Achieved capacity and energy efficiency Objective 8: Enhanced capacity and safety Partially Achieved Partially Achieved of key transport infrastructure and services Objective 9: Enhanced access to improved Achieved Partially Achieved agriculture and irrigation services Objective 10: Enhanced access to finance for Achieved Achieved micro, small and medium enterprises Moderately Moderately Focus Area III: Social Inclusion Satisfactory Satisfactory Objective 11: Improved access to short-term Achieved Mostly Achieved income opportunities for the poor and increased coverage of the Social Safety Net System 9 Objective 12: Increased access to quality Achieved Achieved health care services Objective 13: Increased access to housing Partially Achieved Partially Achieved for low-income households Objective 14: Increased access to sanitation Partially Achieved Partially Achieved and sewage services in rural areas Objective 15: Increased household access to Achieved Achieved natural gas Objective 16: Improved education sector Mostly Achieved Mostly Achieved governance B. Assessment by Focus Area/Objective Focus Area I: Improved Governance 19. Focus Area I was to support the government’s goal of renewing the social contract between the government and citizens through improving the efficiency and transparency of central administrative functions and increasing citizen participation in public service delivery. There was significant synergy across the five objectives. 20. Objective 1: Improved fiscal management. The objective was supported by the programmatic Fiscal Consolidation, Sustainable Energy, and Competitiveness DPLs (FY16, FY17, and FY18), the Private Sector Development for Inclusive Growth DPF (FY19), and ASAs covering public finance management and governance. Complementary lending and advisory support aimed to enhance the government’s fiscal position through improving tax administration and compliance, containing the wage bill, strengthening debt management, and diversifying revenue streams. The FY19 DPF contained a pillar on strengthened fiscal management with an objective of growth-friendly fiscal consolidation to reduce crowding out of private sector borrowing through lower government borrowing and enhanced fiscal management. An FY16 reimbursable TA project, Government Securities Market Development and Public Debt Management, supported the drafting of a medium-term debt management strategy, and the FY17 Public Finance Management (PFM) Modernization TA supported government staff and stakeholders on a range of modern PFM practices. IFC supported Egypt’s Financial Regulatory Authority in implementing guidelines facilitating the development of the green bonds market. Egypt was the first MENA country to issue a sovereign green bond with a listing of US$700 million on the London Stock Exchange in September 2020. 21. The assessment of performance on this objective’s indicators is as follows: Indicator Baseline Target IEG Validated Result (Year) IEG (Year) (Year) Rating Single unified tax rate for No (2015) Yes Value Added Tax (VAT) law adopted Achieved all goods and services (2018) with a single unified tax rate for all goods and services (2016) Established tax credit No (2015) Yes VAT law of 2016 includes a tax credit Achieved system for direct and (2018) system for direct and indirect inputs indirect inputs 10 22. Achieved. Targets for tax reform were achieved, following new incentives for timely and accurate tax filing. Those institutional indicators, however, covered only one dimension of the broad objective and were output-oriented. An outcome indicator included in the CPF under Objective 2, reduction in the wage and salaries bill relative to GDP, is more appropriately counted as a measure for this objective, and it was achieved. Two supplementary indicators provided additional evidence of outcomes: the primary fiscal balance improved from -3.5 percent of GDP in 2015 to 2.3 percent of GDP in 2019/2020 (achieving the 2019 target of 1.8 percent; the target was adjusted from -2.4 percent at the PLR stage to reflect recent progress), and the tax-to-GDP ratio declined slightly from 13.3 percent in 2017 to 12.7 percent in 2019/2020 (not achieving the 2019 target of an increase to 14.6 percent; indicator added at the PLR stage). The CLR explains that the latter target was missed because of a significant drop in tax receipts from sovereign entities as well as below-potential performance of the VAT. 23. Objective 2: Improved fiscal transparency. The objective was supported by the programmatic Fiscal Consolidation, Sustainable Energy, and Competitiveness DPLs (FY16, FY17, and FY18), which contained prior actions on establishment of an internal audit unit in the Ministry of Finance, and ASAs covering public finance management and governance. For example, the FY16 Public Sector and Governance TA helped clarify the functions of local governance at the governorate and district levels, delineating roles and coordination in budgeting and service provision. The FY17 PFM TA supported review and recommendations for developing and improving the content of fiscal documents, and discussing and disseminating pre-budget statements and a citizens’ budget. An FY 21 programmatic analytical work, Fiscal Transparency and Accountability, supported the convening of a participatory budget workshop for representatives of government, academia, and civil society. 24. The assessment of performance on this objective’s indicators is as follows: Indicator Baseline Target IEG Validated Result (Year) IEG Rating (Year) (Year) Established internal audit No (2015) Yes Ministerial Decree No. Partially function in the Ministry of (2019) 290/2017 issued to establish Achieved Finance an audit unit Reduced central Government 8.2% 4.9% 5.0% (2020/21) Achieved wage and salaries bill to (2015) (2020) nominal GDP Publish medium-term debt No (2015) Yes MOF published MTDS in Partially management strategy (2020) 2019 Achieved 25. Partially Achieved. The internal audit unit was established in 2017 (according to the CLR, with an audit charter in line with international standards), and the MDTS was published in 2019. A tariff methodology for computation of electricity tariffs was publicly disclosed in 2019. However, the first and third indicators are weak, as they did not capture ongoing efforts. The CLR reports that annual MTDS updates are not published consistently, and IEG cannot verify that the audit unit is functioning. In addition, there were no indicators more directly measuring fiscal transparency. 11 26. Objective 3: Established evidence base for improved public sector performance. According to the CLR, the objective was supported by TA products that focused on the adoption of a national performance measurement framework. An FY20 ASA, Strategic Governance Engagement, led to an official request for a project to create a whole-of-government performance monitoring system and also produced a policy note on e-government. 27. The assessment of performance on this objective’s indicators is as follows: Indicator Baseline Target (Year) IEG Validated Result (Year) IEG (Year) Rating National performance 0 (2018) 30 ministries, 10 Ministry of Partially measurement framework public service Communications and Achieved in place and connected to authorities, 27 Information Technology ministries, public service local governments designed an electronic authorities, and local (2020) system to assess governments government performance (2020) New e-services launched 0 (2018) 15 services; 18 new digital government Partially online, and increased 100,000 users services launched (2019); no Achieved number of users of (2020) verifiable data available for available services number of users New e-procurement No Yes (2020) Government procurement Partially introduced in (2018) portal is on-line Achieved government and connects all budgetary spending entities 28. Partially achieved. The government announced implementation of a national performance measurement framework in FY19, but the CLR notes that implementation progress has been slowed by limited coordination between ministries, and IEG was unable to determine the number of ministries, public service authorities, and local governments actively linked to the system. The target was exceeded for number of new public e-services, including driving license renewals, payment of traffic fines, notary activities, and lawsuit filing, but no verifiable information was available for the number of users of those services. A new e-procurement system is on-line, but no information is available on its connection to all budgetary spending entities or its use. Egypt’s scores on the United Nations e-government development index remained relatively unchanged across the CPF period (ranks of 107 in 2016, 109 in 2018, and 106 in 2020), and its online services index score rose slightly (0.47 in 2016, 0.53 in 2017, and 0.57 in 2020). 29. Objective 4: Strengthened citizen engagement in service delivery. The objective was supported by a PforR in sustainable rural sanitation services, which supported baseline and follow-up surveys on a citizen report card (CRC) and women’s participation in consultative activities in six water and sanitation companies, and ASA including an FY17 TA Mainstreaming Beneficiary Feedback in Select Sectors, which supported the health, energy, and rural sanitation sectors in designing and implementing grievance redress mechanisms. 30. The assessment of performance on this objective’s indicators is as follows: 12 Indicator Baseline Target IEG Validated IEG (Year) (Year) Result (Year) Rating Percentage of resolved complaints in housing 0 (2015) 90% 90.7% (2020) Achieved office (2020) Satisfaction survey undertaken in sanitation 0 (2015) 1 (2020) 1 (2020) Achieved sector Percentage of grievances addressed in 0 (2015) 70% 89% (2020) Achieved stipulated timeframe in the Takaful and (2020) Karama cash transfer program 31. Achieved. The CLR rates this objective “Mostly Achieved” because, while the sanitation survey is confirmed as having been completed, there has been no reporting of the citizen satisfaction percentage. The indicator was a binary indicator on whether or not the survey was undertaken. Taken together, the results indicate improvement in citizen engagement in service delivery in the housing, sanitation, and social support sectors. It is worth noting, however, that the objective would have been more usefully framed as improved citizen satisfaction rather than just engagement. 32. Objective 5: Strengthened energy sector governance. The objective was supported by the three Fiscal Consolidation, Sustainable Energy, and Competitiveness DPLs (FY16, FY17, and FY18), which had policy actions on reforming energy subsidies and improving energy governance, and ASAs on energy subsidy reform, restructuring of the electricity transmission company, modernization of the oil and gas sector, and strengthening the capacity of the gas regulator. IFC’s Smart Technology and Energy Efficient Production (STEP) Advisory Program, launched in 2015, supported the Ministry of Trade Industry & SMEs to improve the competitiveness of industries by lowering their energy use, encouraging energy-efficient practices, and facilitating growth of the domestic energy-efficient technology manufacturing sector. One of the outcomes was the issuance of Ministerial Decree 463/2020 to support the Egyptian industry and ensure the availability of energy-efficient motors in the Egyptian market. 33. The assessment of performance on this objective’s indicators is as follows: Indicator Baseline (Year) Target (Year) IEG Validated IEG Result (Year) Rating Reduction of energy 6.6% (2015) 3.3% (2019) 1.9% (2019) Achieved subsidies as proportion of GDP Increase in the average 0.226 Egyptian pounds 0.451 0.66 LE/kWh Achieved electricity tariff (LE)/kWh (2015) LE/kWh (2018) (2019) 34. Achieved. Overachievement of the targets for increased electricity tariffs and reduced energy subsidies indicates that there was significant progress toward improved sector governance and removal of distortions of energy subsidies. 35. IEG rates the outcome of WBG support under Focus Area I as Moderately Satisfactory based on the assessment of objectives 1-5 above. Focus Area II: Improved Opportunities for Private Sector Job Creation 13 36. Focus Area II was intended to support the private formal sector in providing employment opportunities for the growing labor force, focusing on improvements in the regulatory environment, access to finance for MSMEs, increased energy efficiency, expanded transport infrastructure capacity, and access to agriculture and irrigation services. 37. Objective 6: Improved regulatory environment for private investment. Support under this objective focused on business regulations, competition policy, and industrial licensing reform. The three Fiscal Consolidation, Sustainable Energy, and Competitiveness DPLs (FY16, FY17, and FY18) contained pillars on improving the investment regime and its transparency, reforming industrial licensing, and strengthening the competition framework. The Private Sector Development for Inclusive Growth DPF (FY19) contained a pillar on private sector development that included several prior actions related to improving corporate governance and the business environment. Key ASAs on the investment climate and competition policy underpinned policy lending. The Subnational Doing Business (SNDB) project (closed in March 2017) catalyzed local-level reforms supporting private sector development by engaging national and local officials and the private sector in policy dialogue and highlighting differences in economic governance and transparency among governorates. Under the Competition and Competitiveness programmatic TA, the Industrial Licensing Law (15/2017) was ratified in May 2017, and the Executive Regulations (1082/2017) were approved in August 2017. Under the Competitiveness Program, the Investment Law (72/2017) was ratified in May 2017. IFC invested in nine manufacturing projects, two glass producing companies, agri-manufacturers, and chemical companies, for a total commitment of US$261 million, representing 18 percent of its total portfolio in Egypt (2016-2021). MIGA offered three political risk guarantees in manufacturing totaling US$53 million, representing about 10 percent of MIGA’s total gross issuance in Egypt. 38. The assessment of performance on this objective’s indicators is as follows: Indicator Baseline Target IEG Validated Result (Year) IEG Rating (Year) (Year) Number of laws and/or 0 (2015) 3 (2019) Investment law (2017); Achieved regulations enacted to Consumer protection law strengthen business regulation (2018); Anti-trust law (2019) Average duration of business 320 days 75 days 250 days (2020) Partially licensing process (2015) (2020) Achieved 39. Partially achieved. Laws were enacted to strengthen business regulation, as targeted, but streamlining of business licensing led to only partial achievement of the target for reduced duration of that process. The indicators only partially captured achievement of the broad objective, not fully measuring, for example, the impact of the enacted laws on the investment climate. 40. Objective 7: Increased energy generation capacity and energy efficiency. This objective dealt with power shortages, effective distribution systems and reliable supply to households and businesses. IFC worked with the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MOTI) to help Egyptian industry adapt to rising energy prices by making available energy-efficient technologies and practices to improve competitiveness, including supporting the preparation of the decree on 14 energy-efficient electric motors issued by MOTI in 2020 under IFC’s STEP Program and the Energy Efficient Industries AS. Additionally, the Green Building AS supported the government in promoting certification for energy-efficient construction practices. The Resource Efficiency and Low Carbon AS supported existing and potential IFC clients adopting carbon-saving technologies in the manufacturing sector. The Clean Tech Entrepreneurship and Market Creation AS supported photovoltaic entrepreneurs, fintech firms and financial institutions to develop integrated business models to expand the off-grid photovoltaic market. The 30 by 30 Zero AS was a global program launched in four countries, including Egypt, that helped reduce the coal exposure of participating banks to close to zero. IFC’s 15 investments in energy- producing facilities – solar power plants and a wind farm -- exceeded in volume 15 percent of its total portfolio, reaching almost US$226 million in total commitments. The majority of MIGA’s political guarantees also supported solar and wind energy. Both IFC and MIGA also supported the oil and gas sector. MIGA offered a guarantee of US$150 million (65 percent of MIGA’s portfolio in Egypt). 41. The assessment of performance on this objective’s indicators is as follows: Indicator Baseline Target (Year) IEG Validated Result IEG (Year) (Year) Rating Capacity of power 0 (2014) 5500 MW Conventional capacity 51 Achieved generation constructed – conventional GW, an increase of 22,000 conventional (2018); MW (2018) 1500 MW Wind/solar capacity 3016 renewable (2020) MW, an increase of 2300 MW (2020) Greenhouse gas reduction 0 (2014) 1.5 million tCO2 2.8 million tCO2 (2020) Achieved relevant to engagements in renewable energy 42. Achieved. Capacity of both conventional and renewable energy was increased, and the level of greenhouse gas reduction resulting from newly built wind and solar farms almost doubled the target. 43. Objective 8: Enhanced capacity and safety of key transport infrastructure and services. This objective focused on alleviating transportation infrastructure bottlenecks. It was supported by the Cairo Airport Development Project (FY10), which was to increase capacity of the Cairo International Airport and facilitate strategic planning across the air transport sector; and by the Egypt Railways Restructuring Project (FY09), which had an objective to improve the reliability, efficiency, and safety of railway services. The IFC committed US$92 million to Sonker Bunkering Company, SAE, to strengthen the port sector and reduce transport costs by developing the first dedicated, efficiently managed, state-of-the-art LBT in Sokhna Port. 44. The assessment of performance on this objective’s indicators is as follows: 15 Indicator Baseline Target IEG Validated IEG (Year) (Year) Result (Year) Rating Passengers that can be served through TB2 21,000 25,000 20,000 (2017) Not terminal at Cairo Airport in one day (2013) (2017) Achieved Average number of fatalities due to railway 0.595 0.3 1.31 (2020) Not accidents on the Egypt National Railways (2014) (2020) achieved network (number per billion passenger-km) 45. Partially achieved. According to information presented in the CPF and PLR, passenger capacity at TB2 of Cairo Airport decreased from the baseline to the target year, and fatalities due to railway accidents that are a consequence of malfunctions or staff error increased from the baseline. However, the Cairo Airport Development Project achieved its 2016 capacity target of 20,000 passengers per day in 2015, an increase from a 2009 project baseline of 9,590, and the CPF and PLR reported a different program baseline and target in error. IFC support for the port sector was not captured by the CPF indicators. Objective 9: Enhanced access to improved agriculture and irrigation services. The objective was meant to help tackle the country’s low agricultural productivity, lack of off-farm opportunities, and inefficient water use. It was supported by the Farm-Level Irrigation Modernization Project (FY10), which aimed to increase agricultural profitability and improve equity in access to higher-quality water for small-scale farmers in targeted areas in the Nile Delta; and the Second National Drainage Project (FY00) and Integrated Irrigation Improvement and Management Project (FY05), which focused on improved irrigation and drainage and improved efficiency of irrigated agricultural water use and services. There were no lending operations on the agriculture side. IFC support included an investment of US$22 million in Wadi Group, an animal producer operating in poultry; a risk‐sharing facility with a regional bank for agri-commodities; and four investments in food processing facilities (sugar and dairy) and farm products wholesale for a total of US$180 million. 46. The assessment of performance on this objective’s indicators is as follows: Indicator Baseline (Year) Target (Year) IEG Validated IEG Rating Result (Year) Water users provided 0 (2014) 945,000 (2020) 1,086,807 (2020) Achieved with new/improved irrigation and drainage services (number) Area provided with 450,000 ha (2014) 675,000 ha (2020) 702,972 ha (2017) Achieved improved irrigation and drainage services 47. Partially Achieved. Targets were exceeded for irrigation and drainage services, but there was no separate indicator or activity on agriculture services, which was half of the objective. An original indicator on agriculture services, “higher value horticulture crops grown,” was removed at the PLR stage because the relevant project was dropped, but the objective itself—which included access to improved agriculture services—was not revised, and 16 the PLR also cited the development of a new Integrated Agriculture Development Program and potential IFC investments in agribusiness. 48. Objective 10: Enhanced access to finance for micro-small, and medium-sized enterprises. Lack of such access is a significant constraint in enabling MSMEs to grow and generate employment opportunities. The objective was supported by the Promoting Innovation for Inclusive Financial Access Project (FY14), which expanded lines of credit to MSMEs with a special focus on youth, women, and under-served regions; and the Private Sector Development for Inclusive Growth DPF (FY19), which had a pillar on financial inclusion and access to finance particularly for women- and youth-led enterprises. IFC implemented a rich AS program on financial inclusion. The Secured Transactions project strengthened the institutional framework and built the capacity of local stakeholders, including financial institutions, to expand their lending operations, securing them with moveable assets. The Fintech Acceleration program supported the creation of an investment-ready fintech pipeline that would eventually contribute to the financial inclusion agenda. The Banque Misr project helped the bank expand access to finance for the underserved women's market segments. The Tanmeyah projects supported the large MFI in increasing outreach, diversifying the offerings, strengthening risk management practices, and enhancing the institution’s internal capacity. The MSME 2 supply chain finance and new financial technology AS established a new cash flow-based lending solution. The Al Tadamun project supported the leading MFI to develop a comprehensive Digital Transformation Strategy, diversify its product offering through piloting and rolling out a new product catered to larger loan sizes, and create a new five-year business plan. The 30 by 30 Zero project supported banks in developing green financing products. IFC financed 14 financial institutions for a total value of US$600 million, representing 19 percent of its total portfolio (including SEF and other collective investment vehicles). 49. The assessment of performance on this objective’s indicators is as follows: Indicator Baseline (Year) Target (Year) IEG Validated IEG Rating Result (Year) MSME portfolio of US$3.2 bln US$14.5 bln Bank: LE 35 Achieved financial institutions (2014): Bank (2020): Bank billion (2019), participating in WBG- US$1.9 bln, IFC US$12.5 bln, IFC IFC: US$2.0 bln financed interventions US$1.3 bln US$2.0 bln (2020) Women served through 2,963 (2014) 35,000 (2018) 69,602 (2018) Achieved the lines of credit 50. Achieved. It appears that the CPF, PLR, and CLR incorrectly expressed the Bank baselines and targets in US dollars rather than Egyptian pounds; the Promoting Innovation for Inclusive Financial Access Project cites a 2014 baseline of LE 1.9 billion and a 2019 target of LE 15.5 billion. No information was provided for the 2020 target years. It is noteworthy that investment project targets were exceeded for participation by women-owned SMEs and youth- owned SMEs. IFC’s investments expanded the lending capacity of the cooperating financial institutions, thus expanding the financing options for MSMEs. IEG rates the outcome of WBG support under Focus Area 2 as Moderately Unsatisfactory based on the assessment of objectives 6-10 above. 17 Focus Area III: Social inclusion 51. Focus Area III sought to expand and improve targeting of the social safety net and social services, increase expenditure in health and education, improve education quality, and contribute to gender equality. 52. Objective 11: Improved access to short-term income opportunities for the poor and increased coverage of the Social Safety Net System. The objective was supported by the Emergency Labor Intensive Investment Project (FY12), which created short-term employment opportunities for unemployed and semi-skilled workers; the Strengthening Social Safety Net Project (FY16), which aimed to establish an efficient and effective cash transfer program; and ASA including the trust-funded Strengthening Human Capital Development in Egypt (FY22), which produced policy briefs on productive and economic inclusion and employability. IFC promoted women’s employment in the private sector by providing AS to select companies. It also contributed to improving the relevant regulatory environment. The Women’s Retailer Development AS helped an e-commerce platform better serve women retailers. Through a collaboration with Banque Misr, IFC also worked to reduce gender discrimination in access to finance and equal pay. 53. The assessment of performance on this objective’s indicators is as follows: Indicator Baseline Target (Year) IEG Validated Result (Year) IEG (Year) Rating Beneficiaries of 0 (2014) 185,000 (2018), of 144,669 direct job opportunities Achieved Active Labor- which 40% and 96,971 indirect job Intensive Public female and 60% opportunities, of which 69% Works youth youth, and 34% of direct job opportunities were female Households 0 (2014) 10 million (2016) 694,455 households (2016) Partially registered in unified Achieved SSN registry (number) Poor households 0 (2014) 1.5 million 3.11 million direct and 11.1 direct Achieved benefiting from the households + indirect beneficiaries new Cash Transfer (2020) (individuals) (2020) Program (number) 54. Mostly Achieved. Job opportunities were increased for the poor, and the new Takaful (conditional) and Karama (unconditional) cash transfer programs have particularly benefited women (74 percent of direct beneficiaries). Based on the average household size specified by the Strengthening Social Safety Net project (three persons/household), the target for poor households benefiting from cash transfers was exceeded. However, the number of households included in the unified social safety net registry, intended to connect more than 50 different national databases, fell significantly short of the target. 55. Objective 12: Increased access to quality health care services. The objective sought to deal with widespread dissatisfaction over the poor quality of health services, leading to low utilization rates of public health providers. The objective was supported by the Health Care 18 Quality Improvement Project (FY10), which was to improve the quality of primary care in the country’s poorest 1,000 villages; the Transforming Egypt’s Healthcare System Project (FY19), which aimed to improve the quality of primary and secondary health care services, enhance demand for health and family planning services, and support prevention and control of Hepatitis C; and the Supporting Egypt’s Universal Health Insurance System Project (FY21), which was to increase universal health insurance coverage and provide temporary financial protection against high out-of-pocket health expenditures. IFC offered a structured diagnostic (Deep Dive) focusing on (i) delivery models that would work in Tier 2/3 cities; (ii) the pharma/biotech sector; and (iii) the MedTech sector. It also worked on improving healthcare service providers' quality assurance processes and practices to make healthcare providers more appealing to financiers. Through the MAS Pharma North Africa project, IFC supported pharmaceutical companies in enhancing their efficiency and productivity. Six portfolio investments in health care facilities for a total commitment of US$106 million allowed IFC to help develop a network of high-quality tertiary hospitals throughout Egypt. The project came as the COVID-19 pandemic put pressure on healthcare services across MENA. 56. The assessment of performance on this objective’s indicators is as follows: Indicator Baseline Target IEG Validated IEG (Year) (Year) Result (Year) Rating Targeted family healthcare facilities in the 0 (2014) 400 (2017) 682 facilities Achieved poorest ten Governorates receiving (2017) accreditation certification People with access to a basic package of 0 (2014) 1 million 5.4 million Achieved health, nutrition, or population services (2017) (2017) Citizens screened for Hepatitis C 0 (2015) 30 million Greater than 60 Achieved (2020) million (2020) 57. Achieved. All of the indicators were significantly overachieved, with access to health care services increased for people in the poorest areas and quality improvements confirmed through accreditation of primary health care facilities. Two of the indicators measured achievement through 2017, and Hepatitis C screening and treatment was supported by both the FY10 project and the FY19 project (the latter would not have had time to contribute to the reported results). As of December 2021, an additional 217 primary care facilities have achieved quality benchmarks. IFC targeted higher-end health care and is therefore also unlikely to have contributed to these results. 58. Objective 13: Increased access to housing for low-income households. The objective was supported by the Inclusive Housing Finance PforR (FY15) and its additional financing (FY20), which aim to improve the affordability of affordable housing for low-income housing through demand-side subsidies and to strengthen the Social Housing and Mortgage Finance Fund’s capacity to design policies and coordinate programs. 59. The assessment of performance on this objective’s one indicator is as follows: Indicator Baseline Target (Year) IEG Validated Result IEG (Year) (Year) Rating 19 Number of targeted 0 (2015) 575,000, of which 50% 243,450 households, of Partially households accessing are in the bottom 20% which 34% are in the Achieved ownership and rental of income, and 20% are bottom 20% of income housing units with female-headed and 19% are headed by support from the households (2019) females (2019) Program (number) 60. Partially Achieved. Demand-side subsidies have resulted in progress toward the targeted number of households benefiting from housing finance schemes, though the target for number of households was not reached. Female-headed households were almost reached as planned, but as of the target year the percentage of poor households was below what was anticipated. 61. Objective 14: Increased access to sanitation and sewage services in rural areas. The objective was supported by the Integrated Sanitation and Sewerage Infrastructure Project and Trust Fund (FY09) and its follow-on project (FY12), and the Sustainable Rural Sanitation Services PforR (FY 16), all of which had objectives to improve access to rural sanitation and sewerage services, and the Upper Egypt Local Development PforR (FY17), which aims to strengthen local government capacity for quality infrastructure and service delivery, including water and sanitation networks, in select governorates in Upper Egypt. IFC was to replicate the New Cairo PPP sewage model, but this did not take place. 62. The assessment of performance on this objective’s indicators is as follows: Indicator Baseline (Year) Target (Year) IEG Validated IEG Rating Result (Year) Users in rural areas with 0 (2014) 2,483,000 (2019) 119,000 (2019) Partially access to improved Achieved sanitation and sewerage coverage 63. Partially Achieved. Initial progress on this objective was slow due to underestimation of the time required for land acquisition, inadequate implementation arrangements that paid disproportionate attention to hard infrastructure investments and not enough to sectoral reforms, and inadequate attention to safeguards. The more recent PforR has reported progress with household sanitation connections. The CLR provides no explanation for the lack of progress on IFC activities. 64. Objective 15: Increased household access to natural gas. The objective was supported by the Household Natural Gas Connection Project (FY15), which aimed to increase household access to reliable, lower-cost, grid-connected natural gas supply. MIGA provided political risk guarantees covering domestic oil and gas producer Apache Energy (US$150 million) and the refining company (US$23 million). 65. The assessment of performance on this objective’s indicators is as follows: 20 Indicator Baseline (Year) Target (Year) IEG Validated IEG Rating Result (Year) Households connected to 0 (2014) 1.5 million 1.56 million Achieved the natural gas networks (2020) (2020) under the program Female project 0 (2014) 50% (2020) 50% (2020) Achieved beneficiaries from Household Gas Connections Project 66. Achieved. After a slow start due to challenges with environmental and social instruments, land acquisition, and procurements with long lead times, the gas connections project was restructured to focus more tightly on household gas connections and female beneficiaries. Targets were achieved for households connected to natural gas networks; women were reported in project documents as constituting half of all beneficiaries, though there is no explanation of the methodology for calculating gender data. 67. Objective 16: Improved education sector governance. The objective was supported by the Supporting Egypt Education Reform Project (FY18), which aims to improve teaching and learning conditions in public schools and contains governance-related DLIs on quality assurance, leadership development, and assessment. A Bank-supported White Paper on Issues and Options for the Education Sector (FY16) provided a diagnostic of issues facing pre-tertiary education. 68. The assessment of performance on this objective’s indicators is as follows: Indicator Baseline Target IEG Validated Result (Year) IEG (Year) (Year) Rating White Paper on Sector-wide 0 (2015) 1 Delivered (2017) Achieved Education Reform that proposed (2017) policy measures and interventions addressing sector priorities and constraints, developed and furnished IBRD results-based project to 0 (2015) 1 P157809, Supporting Egypt Achieved support Egypt Education Reform (2017) Education Reform Project program prepared and launched became effective in FY19 and includes 12 disbursement- linked indicators 69. Mostly Achieved. The White Paper covered a broad range of issues facing the sector, including teaching and learning quality, labor market benefits of education, and education spending. The education reform project has objectives to improve teaching and learning conditions in public schools. While the indicators for delivery of a diagnostic paper and launch of a new project in the sector were achieved, they were (at best) incomplete indicators of improved education sector governance, with a focus on outputs and inputs alone. They do not represent evidence of any improvement in education sector governance. 21 70. IEG rates the outcome of WBG support under Focus Area 3 as Moderately Satisfactory based on the assessment of objectives 10-16 above. V. WBG Performance Ownership, Learning, and Adaptation 71. The government was committed to implementing bold reforms to stabilize the economy and protect the poor and vulnerable, and the WBG demonstrated learning ability and adaptation during program implementation. The government sustained strong ownership through focus on the main priorities in its “Egypt Takes Off” reform program and deepening of that focus in the 2021 National Structural Reform Program. Addressing multiple interconnected challenges in a holistic manner, for example, through the programmatic DPF, allowed WBG to serve as a key partner for the government in complex reform areas. As the CPF period progressed, the Bank added significant support for education and health sector reform, in line with the WBG-wide Human Capital Project, and toward the end of the CPF period scaled up support to transform the digital economy, improve the business climate, and bring in new private financing for infrastructure under the MFD agenda, following the WBG’s expanded regional strategy for the Middle East and North Africa. A more selective approach was adopted through reliance on larger, more impactful, mainly policy- or results-based operations, and relevant adjustments were made at the PLR stage. ASAs prepared the groundwork for reforms that were incentivized under the DPF series, and once reforms were approved, further ASAs delivered capacity building for their implementation. Flexible, just-in-time ASAs allowed for agile response to emerging challenges. Early mapping of political economy factors enabled effective interactions with stakeholders across program and project design and implementation; in particular, the large transaction costs and potential ownership and “turf” battles that can arise in large projects involving multiple implementing ministries and agencies were avoided. Risk Identification and Mitigation 72. Risks for the WBG-supported program were well identified, assessed as high, and largely well mitigated. The CPF stepped up the Bank’s program in Egypt through informed risk-taking that produced significant results in key areas. At the beginning of the CPF period, much political risk stemmed from the number of pending decisions, including regarding laws and regulations, that were prerequisites for CPF operational engagement, and sporadic violence in the Sinai due to exclusion of parts of the electorate from power and the public sphere. Governance risk concerned broader issues related to transparency, accountability, and the overall relationship between the state and citizens. Macroeconomic risk was high due to large debt repayments, an unfavorable external environment, and government efforts to stimulate the economy through increased spending that risked increasing fiscal deficits. Finally, social risks were high, with real risk of social disruption due to high unemployment, low living standards, and high food price inflation. Mitigation measures included ongoing dialogue with the government, plans for deliberate stepping back from areas that lack good laws and policies, weekly monitoring of the macroeconomic situation in close coordination with the IMF, and support for the government’s comprehensive communication strategy, citizen outreach, and grievance redress mechanisms to build acceptability for reforms within society. For its major 22 investments, the WBG took informed risks that paid off. The first operation in the programmatic DPF series was approved by the World Bank’s Executive Board in the absence of an IMF program, recognizing the credibility of the government’s reform program and the risks of not supporting it. According to the PLR, this decision marked a turning point in the WBG’s relationship with the government, paving the way for expanded WBG support to other key reform areas. Building on the DPF’s policy matrix, an arrangement under the IMF’s Extended Fund Facility followed a year later. It was an important shortcoming, however, that safeguards risks were not properly anticipated and mitigated in a timely manner, particularly given the occurrence of worksite fatalities identified in the previous CLRR. WBG Collaboration 73. The IBRD, IFC, and MIGA collaborated across several interventions. IFC’s debt package for the construction of 13 solar power plants and MIGA’s political risk insurance to private lenders and investors involved in the solar park supported the DPF objective of enabling private investments in renewable energy. MIGA’s role was critical, as it provided cover to investors who might not otherwise have participated in Egypt’s nascent renewables sector. The DPF series and the DPF on private sector development complemented several ongoing and new IBRD and IFC investments to support private-sector job creation. The PLR also states that collaboration among all WBG arms was enhanced through joint global practice groups, which worked together to design and implement the programmatic DPFs and the Upper Egypt Local Development PforR. Partnerships and Development Partner Coordination 74. The WBG group served as a convening agent for development partners, through the Development Partners Group and bilateral dialogue with all key partners, and worked in its areas of comparative advantage. The three-operation programmatic DPF series leveraged US$1.5 billion from the African Development Bank, with a joint policy matrix across the fiscal, energy, and competitiveness pillars. Extensive dialogue and coordination with the International Monetary Fund ensured complementarity of the reforms supported under the Extended Fund Facility arrangement and the WB’s programmatic DPF series, stand-alone private sector DPF, and broader policy-oriented engagement. The Government of the United Kingdom provided a US$150 million guarantee to help maximize availability of IBRD resources for the third operation in the programmatic DPF series. The WBG worked together with the European Union and AFD to finance the Household Natural Gas Connection Project, with coordinated TA to establish a gas regulator and build its institutional capacity. The WBG partnered with the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank to scale up support for the rural sanitation program and transition to a new governance and delivery model in the sanitation sector. Safeguards and Fiduciary Issues 75. Despite reported satisfactory compliance by the closing date of projects, safeguard activities were challenging during the CPF period. IEG validated twenty-seven closed projects during the CPF in the water, environment and natural resources, energy, finance and markets, health, nutrition & population, transport and ICT, and social protection and labor sectors. The 23 CLR is not explicit on safeguards compliance. Project ICRs and ICRRs report that environmental and social safeguards compliance were met, with some positive social benefits provided to people and communities. Outstanding issues were left for the government to address after some project end dates, and local governments committed to resolving all outstanding issues. However, according to project documents, project teams were faced with many difficulties. 76. In addition to weak local capacity, procurement delays, and poor environmental and social data management, extremely poor occupational health and safety (OHS) measures led to five fatal accidents in water and transport projects. These caused the Bank to halt projects for a full assessment of incidents of death, and support local teams with intense capacity building. Project ICRs do not provide a complete account of the accidents, and additional details from the region indicate extreme non-compliance. Bank management took the OHS challenges seriously. The notice of the incident caused the Bank to halt projects for a full assessment of incidents of death and support local teams with intense capacity building. Assistance to the victims’ families was provided in a timely manner, the root causes of the accidents were properly assessed, and acceptable follow-up actions were implemented. However, these cases not only show evidence of low capacity on the ground but also raise questions about Project Management Unit supervision and WBG oversight. Accident reports indicated that the accidents were generally caused by negligence. 77. The recurrence of fatalities on worksites in the Egypt portfolio should be taken more seriously by WBG management. In the previous CLRR, the Board was notified of a similar number of fatalities. Bank management made significant efforts to learn from operational challenges and to support local capacity by including a safety sub-component in a new transportation project. Third-party mentoring was financed to enhance project supervision during COVID-19 restrictions. In addition, an Occupational Health and Safety consultant was hired to support all Project Implementation Units in Egypt. The rural sanitation PforR helped scale up several environment and safety risk management systems on the ground. Some of the CPF’s ASAs also had strong linkages to safeguards application. For example, “Supporting the Land Acquisition Policy and Institutional Reform” moderated a constructive multi-stakeholder policy dialogue that led to substantial legislative reform for the eminent domain law in Egypt. TA contributed to bridging the gap between Bank policy requirements (including current requirements under ESF/ESS5) and the country system. These are good initiatives that should be encouraged and monitored so that appropriate lessons can be adequately learned and adjustments made in future operations. 78. On January 8, 2019, the Inspection Panel received a Request for Inspection of the Upper Egypt Local Development Program-for-Results (P157395) for alleged harm to the environmental health and safety of the population. After discussion with Bank management and a review of additional documents, the Panel found that the complaint had been addressed by the local government, and a notice of non-registration of the request was issued on February 14, 2019. 79. During the period FY15-21, INT reviewed 14 complaints with significant allegations related to Egypt. A total of five investigations were launched, and three were closed as 24 substantiated. The substantiated cases were all in the Energy & Extractives sector, and all three cases had elements of fraud and corruption with winning bidders failing to disclose payments to agents. Overall Assessment and Rating 80. Overall, and despite some serious shortcomings on health and safety in some projects, IEG rates World Bank Group performance as Good. Design 81. Program design was adequate, addressing Egypt’s most binding development constraints through an ambitious but selective program. The CPF effectively drew lessons from the previous CLR, and from intensive dialogue with the government and stakeholders. The suite of WBG interventions was capable of achieving the CPF objectives, with strong innovation (for the Egypt programs) in the use of complementary ASA, policy lending, investment lending with disbursement-linked indicators, and PforRs. Risks were well identified and mostly well mitigated, with the major exception of safeguards-related risks. Importantly, the size and timing of the CPF program signified the WBG’s willingness to support a fledgling but significant government reform plan despite high levels of risk; this strategy ultimately produced results in key areas. However, there were some shortcomings with the results framework. Some objectives were not adequately measured by the indicators due to a focus on outputs rather than outcomes, and there was no measure of improved opportunities for private sector job creation under the second focus area. Implementation 82. The WBG adjusted the portfolio across the CPF, increasing volume while concentrating on fewer, more carefully selected and better-performing operations. Coordination among development partners was strong. Project documents indicate that, again with the major exception of worksite safety for some projects, supervision was consistently well done, with complete and candid reporting, and effective communication with counterparts and stakeholders. The program adapted well to changing circumstances and priorities at the PLR stage, adding new projects in response to shifting government priorities. The WBG responded rapidly and flexibly to new needs posed by the COVID-19 pandemic. 83. However, there were major shortcomings in safeguards reporting and supervision that merit additional attention from WBG management. 84. For IFC, Egypt is the MENA region’s most extensive portfolio, almost half of which is in equity investments, diversified in the financial markets, infrastructure, oil and gas, agribusiness, manufacturing, and health care sectors. A solid advisory program complemented IFC’s investments. IFC’s Egypt program has increased since 2011 due to its support to the private sector when other financing sources dried up, and it has been performing relatively well given the difficulties in the operating environment post-January 2011. IFC took a proactive approach to portfolio management, including stress-testing all exposures, helping clients restructure their balance sheets, and cancelling selectively undisbursed commitments in agreement with clients. Except for three investments underperforming pre-January 2011, the 25 portfolio is current with no delay in repayments to date. MIGA’s ongoing support to foreign investors in Egypt has been during periods when the political risk insurance industry’s capacity for Egypt has been constrained, sending a strong signal that MIGA is open for business in the country. VI. Assessment of CLR 85. The CLR provided a coherent narrative of the program’s interventions, but there were some gaps in the evidence presented to assess the achievement of CPF objectives. For some of the objectives, where results indicators were inadequate to assess performance, the CLR provided useful additional information. For the most part, discussion of risk assessment and mitigation was adequate. However, there were shortcomings. The CLR was silent on the Bank’s performance on safeguard issues, a serious omission. There was limited assessment of the direct and indirect pathways through which the program’s interventions were to achieve CPF objectives. For indicators where the PLR retained a 2019/2020 target year after the CPF was extended to 2021, the CLR did not always offer more recent data. It contained limited political economy analysis in a complex institutional environment. The CLR provided a broad overview of IFC and MIGA interventions, but this discussion was too short to convey their granularity. The importance of some IFC achievements was stated but not explained, and the success rate of projects (or lack thereof) was not addressed. VII. Lessons 86. IEG broadly agrees with the CLR’s lessons, particularly on the importance of precision in defining objectives and associated indicators, and of attentive integration of cross-cutting themes. IEG adds three additional lessons. 87. First, as the program’s results framework did not provide adequate measurement of all dimensions of each objective, an additional lesson is that tracking of results and impact of each element of each objective better serves assessment of outcomes and learning. Second, when supported by strong, mutually reinforcing mitigation measures, the WBG can successfully take informed risks with major investments. Third, full and clear acknowledgment and discussion of health and safety safeguards transgressions is essential to maintaining the Bank’s reputational integrity. 26 Annexes Annex 1: Achievement of CPF Objectives (Results Framework) Annex 2: Comments on Lending Portfolio Annex 3: Comments on ASA Portfolio Annex 4: Comments on Trust Funded Portfolio Annex 5: IEG Project Ratings Annex 6: Portfolio Status for Egypt and Comparators, FY15-21 Annex 7: Comments on IFC Investments in Egypt Annex 8: Comments on IFC Advisory Services in Egypt Annex 9: Comments on MIGA Guarantees Annex 10: Economic and Social Indicators for Egypt FY15-20 27 Annex 1: Achievement of CPF Objectives (Results Framework) CPS FY167-21 Focus Area 1: Promoting Results Interventions Supporting IEG Comments Diversified Growth and Validated by IEG Objectives Enhanced Productivity Objective 1: Improved fiscal management Indicator 1: Single unified Achieved Fiscal Stabilization, Indicators #1 and #2 were tax rate for all goods and 2016: Value Added Sustainable Energy and established under prior action #1 services Tax law adopted in 2016 Competitiveness DPF in the Fiscal Stabilization series. Baseline: No (2015) which includes a single (P157704, P161228, Target: Yes (2018) unified tax rate for all goods P164079, FY16); Public PLR stage revision: (i) CPF and services. Finance Management supplementary indicator Source: ICR for P157704, Modernization TA renamed. Targets now P161228, P164079, Table (P153516, FY17); Strategic presented #2, Page#17. Public Expenditure in the negative for better Assessment EW (P149518, accuracy. Target changed to Supplementary Indicator Achieved FY15); Egypt Public +1.8% for 2019 to reflect recent Primary fiscal balance: 2019/2020: 2.3% Financial Management ASA progress. (ii) Supplementary Baseline: -3.5% of GDP Source: Article IV 2021, AA (P172505, FY21); indicator of Tax to GDP added to (2015) Table #8, Primary Balance. Egypt Programmatic reflect the Bank’s engagement in Target: +1.8% of GDP Governance TA (P162146, the DPF series on fiscal policy. (2019) FY20); Egypt Strategic Indicator 2: Established Achieved Governance Engagement tax credit system for direct 2016: The Value Added AA (P163416, FY20); Egypt and indirect inputs Tax law adopted in 2016 Poverty Assessment AA Baseline: No (2015) includes a tax credit system (P172533, FY20) Target: Yes (2018) for direct and indirect inputs. Source: ICR for P157704, P161228, P164079, Table #2, Page#17. Supplementary Indicator Not Achieved 2019/2020: Tax to GDP ratio 12.7% (below the baseline). Baseline (2017): 13.3% Article IV 2021, Primary Target: 14.6% (2019) Balance, Table #8. Objective 2: Improved fiscal transparency Indicator 3: Established Partially Achieved Fiscal Stabilization, Internal audit established under internal audit function in the 2016: Yes. Ministerial Sustainable Energy and prior action 3.2 in the Fiscal Ministry of Finance Decree No. 290/2017 Competitiveness DPF Stabilization series. IEG cannot Baseline: No (2015) issued to establish an (P157704, P161228, verify that the audit unit is Target: Yes (2019) internal audit unit. P164079, FY16); functioning. Source: ICR for P157704, Public Finance P161228, P164079, Management Modernization Page#60 TA (P153516, FY17); Strategic Public Indicator 4: Reduced Achieved Expenditure Assessment central Government wage 2020: 5.0% of GDP EW (P149518, FY15); PLR stage revision: The target and salaries bill to nominal Source: Ministry of Finance Egypt Public Financial for indicator 4 was adjusted in GDP Monthly Report, August 2022 Management ASA AA the PLR to reflect anticipated Baseline: 8.2% (2015) (P172505, FY21); progress. Target: 4.9% (2020) 28 CPS FY167-21 Focus Area 1: Promoting Results Interventions Supporting IEG Comments Diversified Growth and Validated by IEG Objectives Enhanced Productivity Indicator 5: Publish Partially Achieved Egypt Programmatic Additional Evidence: Public medium‐term debt 2019: MOF published MTDS Governance TA (P162146, disclosure of tariff methodology management in 2019, a year prior to the FY20); Egypt Strategic for computation of electricity strategy target. Governance Engagement tariffs (supplementary indicator Baseline: No (2015) Source: MOF AA (P163416, FY20); Egypt for objective #4), was achieved Target: Yes (2020) Poverty Assessment AA in 2019. (P172533, FY20); Source: ICR (P157704, Corporate Governance P161228, P164079), Page #42. Egypt and Levant (564367,FY17); Responsible Finance MENA (601272, FY17) The CLR reports that annual MTDS updates are not published consistently. Objective 3: Established evidence base for performance‐based public administration Indicator 6: National Partially Achieved Public Finance IEG was not able to determine: performance 2020: The Ministry of Management Modernization (i) the actual number of measurement framework in Communications and TA (P153516, FY17); Egypt ministries, public service place Information Technology Public Sector and authorities, and local connected to ministries, designed an electronic Governance Technical governments actively linked to public system to assess Assistance TA Project “the electronic system”, and (ii) service authorities, and government performance, Phase II (P146535, FY16); whether another national local governments which helps achieve Programmatic TA Public performance framework is in Baseline: 0 (2018) coordination among the Sector Reforms (P162146, place. Target: 30 Ministries; 100 different ministries and FY17); Corporate public service authorities; bodies. Governance Egypt and 27 local governments Source: Ministry of Levant (564367,FY17); (2020) Communications and Responsible Finance Information Technology 2020 MENA (601272, FY17) Yearbook, page #22 and page #40 Indicator 7: New 3‐ Partially Achieved services launched on 2019: 18 new digital line, and increased number government services were of users launched in 2019. of available services Source: Egypt Digital Baseline: 0 (2018) Economy Country Target: 15 services; Assessment (2020). Page 100,000 users #70, Paragraph #2 and #3 (2020) Additional Evidence: 2020: E-Government Development Index (rank for 2020:106, for 2018;109, 2016:107,2014:54,2012:15. Online Service Index value (2020: 0.57, 2018: 0.53, 2016: 0.47) 29 CPS FY167-21 Focus Area 1: Promoting Results Interventions Supporting IEG Comments Diversified Growth and Validated by IEG Objectives Enhanced Productivity Source: UN E-Government Knowledgebase Indicator 8: New e‐ Partially Achieved procurement system Source: Government introduced in government Procurement Portal connecting all budgetary spending entities Baseline: No (2018) Target: Yes (2020) Objective 4: Strengthened citizen engagement in service delivery Indicator 9: Percentage of Achieved Inclusive Housing Finance resolved complaints in 2020: 90.70% Program ( housing office: Source: P150993 - P150993, FY15); Inclusive Baseline: 0 (2015) Sequence No : 10, Page #13 Housing Finance AF Target: 90% (2020) (P168582, FY20); Mainstreaming Beneficiary Feedback in Select Sectors in Egypt TA (P156120, FY17) Indicator 10: Satisfaction Achieved Sustainable Rural survey 2020: Survey undertaken, Sanitation Services undertaken in sanitation but no reporting of citizen Program for Results sector satisfaction percentage (P154112, FY); Baseline: 0 (2015) Source: P154112 - TA Rural Sanitation Target: 1 (2020) Sequence No : 11, Page #9 P154201, FY15); Water and sanitation sector strategy (P160723, FY18); Sanitation TF TF 95965 (P11985, FY11); Integrated Sanitation& Sewerage Infrastructure Project TF-95516 TF- 96930, TF-96553 TF 15263,TF-96554 (P094311, FY11) Indicator 11: Percentage Achieved Strengthening Social Safety of grievances addressed in 2020: 89% Net Project (P145699, stipulated timeframe in the Source: P145699 - FY15); EG: AF Takaful and Karama cash Sequence No : 11, Page #7 Strengthening Social Safety transfer program Net (P168414,FY20); Baseline: 0 (2015) Social Safety Nets TA Target: 70% (2020) (P132258, FY16); Egypt Social Inclusion AA (P162423, FY18) Objective 5: Strengthen Energy Sector Governance Indicator 12: Reduction of Achieved Fiscal Stabilization, energy subsidies as a 2019: 1.9% Sustainable Energy and proportion of GDP Source: ICR for P157704, Competitiveness DPF Baseline: 6.6% (2015) P161228, P164079, Table (P157704, P161228, Target: 3.3% (2019) #3, Page#14. P164079, FY16); Public 30 CPS FY167-21 Focus Area 1: Promoting Results Interventions Supporting IEG Comments Diversified Growth and Validated by IEG Objectives Enhanced Productivity Finance Management Modernization TA Indicator 13: Increase in Achieved (P153516, FY17); Strategic the average 2018/2019: 1.5.2 Increase in Public Expenditure electricity tariff the average electricity tariff , Assessment EW (P149518, Baseline: 0.226 LE/kWh Baseline: 0.226 LE/kWh , FY15); Egypt Public (2015) Target: 0.451 Financial Management ASA Target: 0.451 LE/kWh Source: regulatory authority AA (P172505, FY21); (2019) (Arabic), slide #4. Egypt Programmatic Governance TA (P162146, FY20); Egypt Strategic Governance Engagement AA (P163416, FY20); Egypt Poverty Assessment AA (P172533, FY20); Egypt Green Building (605119, FY22); Egypt Energy Efficient Industries (600329, FY16); Modernizing Egypt's Oil and Gas Sector (P162878) Focus Area 2: Improved Opportunities for Private Sector Job Creation Objective 6: Improved regulatory environment for private investment Indicator 14: Number of Achieved Reimbursable Advisory At the PLR stage, the indicator laws and/or regulations 2019: Law 15 of 2019 Services for Suez Canal was revised from the number of enacted to strengthen (Amendments to Anti-trust Authority TA (P150684, firms benefiting from business business regulation Law 56 of 2014) FY16); Development regulations, to the number of Baseline: 0 (2015) Marketplace Egypt Program laws enacted. Target: 3 (2019) 2018: Law 181 of 2018 TE (P128526, FY16); (Consumer Protection) Competition and Source: American Chamber Competitiveness of Commerce in Egypt Programmatic AAA (P154650, FY21); 2017: Investment Law No. Corporate Governance 72 and Executive Egypt and Levant (564367, Regulations Prime Ministerial FY17); Responsible Decree no. 2310 passed in Finance MENA (601272, 2017. FY17) General Authority for Investments Indicator 15: Average Partially Achieved duration of business 2020: Average duration of licensing process Licensing Processes (days) Baseline: 320 Days is 250. (2015) Source: P153487 - Target: 75 days Sequence No : 09 Page #2 (2020) 31 CPS FY167-21 Focus Area 1: Promoting Results Interventions Supporting IEG Comments Diversified Growth and Validated by IEG Objectives Enhanced Productivity Objective 7: Increased energy generation capacity and energy efficiency Indicator 16: Capacity of Achieved Egypt Green Building IFC At the PLR stage, the target was power generation 2020: Wind / solar 3016 MW (605119, FY22); Egypt increased from 250 MW to 1,500 constructed capacities (meaning increase Energy Efficient Industries MW to reflect higher-than- Conventional by 2300 MW). IFC (600329, FY16); expected progress given IFC, Baseline: 0 (2014) Source: 2020 Egyptian SECI ARC Investment MIGA, and IBRD engagement. Target: 5500 MW Electricity Holding Company (37580, FY18) (2018) (EEHC) 2019-2020, page Renewable #11 Baseline: 0 (2014) Target: 1500 (2020) Indicator 17: Greenhouse 2020: 2021-2022 gas reduction relevant to Egyptian EEHC Annual engagements in renewable Report, page # 13 and staff energy calculations shared with IEG Baseline: 0 (2014) Target: 1.5 million tCo2 (2020) Objective 8: Enhanced capacity and safety of key transport infrastructure and services Indicator 18: Passengers Not Achieved Cairo Airport Development Program baseline and target for that can be served through 2017: 20,000 passengers. Project-TB2 (P101201 passenger capacity at Cairo TB2 terminal at Cairo Source: P101201 ICRR #6 FY10); EG-SSH Airport Airport TB2 terminal were Airport in one day Development Project reported in error in the CPF and (number) (P149968, FY14); PLR. The correct baseline and Baseline: 21,000 (2013) Additional Development target should have been taken Target: 25,000 Additional Financing from the project: (2017) (P105750, FY08); Egypt Baseline: 9,590 (2009) Indicator 19: Average Not Achieved. Transport TA (P161986, Target: 20,000 (2015) number of fatalities due to 2020: 1.31 (fatalities per 1 FY22); EG-Egypt National Source: P101201 ICRR #6 railway accidents on the billion passengers–km) Railways Restructuring ENR Source: P101201 ICRR, (P117356, FY11); Enabling network (number Page #9 Private Investment and per billion passenger–km) Commercial Financing Baseline: 0.595 ESW (FY20), (2014) Target: 0.3 (2020) Objective 9: Enhanced access to improved agriculture and irrigation services Indicator 20: Water users Achieved Farm-level Irrigation This target was adjusted at the provided with 2020: Total users = Modernization (P117745, PLR stage downward due to new/improved 1,086,807. FY10); Second National slower‐than anticipated irrigation and 19,7663 in 2017: Source Drainage Project (P045499, progress on IBRD projects in the drainage services P117745 ICR Page #26 + FY07);Integrated Irrigation energy sector. (number) 360,612 in 2014: Source Improvement and Baseline: 0 (2014) P073977 ICR Page #4 + Management (P073977, Target: 945,000 528,532 in 2014: Source FY05); (2020) P045499 ICR Page #5 Diagnostic on Modernization of Irrigation in Egypt AA (P173063, FY21) 32 CPS FY167-21 Focus Area 1: Promoting Results Interventions Supporting IEG Comments Diversified Growth and Validated by IEG Objectives Enhanced Productivity Indicator 21: Greater area Achieved • The areas completed are provided with 2020: 702,972: 28,532 fed, representing 81.5 Improved irrigation and 193,750 ha in 2016: Source percent from the initially drainage services P073977 ICR Page iii + approved total target area of Baseline: 450,000 65,252 ha in 2017: Source 35,000 fed. ha (2014) P117745 ICR Page #31 + Target: 675,000 443,970 ha in 2015 (area • The focus was solely on ha (2020) improved with drainage): drainage and was Source: P045499 ICR Page complemented by other V projects in the Bank portfolio that supported strengthening of irrigation services, agriculture extension and institutional reform. Source: P045499 ICRR page 28 and page 5. Objective 10: Enhanced access to finance for medium, small and micro‐enterprises (MSMEs) Indicator 22: MSME Achieved Promoting Innovation for portfolio of Financial By end of 2019, the Inclusive Financial Access institutions participating in outstanding MSE portfolio of (P146244, FY15); WBG financed the financial institutions Egypt MSME Finance interventions increased to LE 35 billion, Diagnostic P164274 IFC Baseline: $3.2 bln (2014) exceeding the target that the AAA (P164274); a) Bank: $1.9 bln Micro, Small and Medium b) IFC: $1.3 bln Enterprise Development Target: $14.5 portfolio reach LE 15.529 billion (2020) billion by 2019. It appears a) Bank: $12.5 bln that the CPF incorrectly b) IFC: $2.0 bln expressed the Bank baselines and targets in US$ rather than LE; the associated investment project cites a 2014 baseline of LE 1.9 billion and 2019 target of LE 15.5 billion. Source: P146244 ICRR page 5 Additional Evidence • The percentage of women-owned businesses among the direct project beneficiaries served by the line of credit reached 42 percent by the project closing date, exceeding the target of 30 percent. • The percentage of youth- owned businesses among the direct project beneficiaries served by the line of credit reached 44 33 CPS FY167-21 Focus Area 1: Promoting Results Interventions Supporting IEG Comments Diversified Growth and Validated by IEG Objectives Enhanced Productivity percent by the project closing date, exceeding the target of 40 percent Source: P146244 ICRR page 5 Indicator 23: Women Achieved Promoting Innovation for served through the lines of 2018: 69,602 Inclusive FA (P146244, credit Source: P146244 - FY14); Baseline: 2,963 Sequence No : 08, Pge #4 Pvt Sector Dev for inclusive (2014) growth DPF (P168630, Target: 35,000 FY19); Financial Inclusion (2018) Global Initiative – Egypt AA (P167204, FY21); Egypt: Credit Guarantee Strengthening AA (P167225, FY20) Focus Area 3: Social Inclusion Objective 11: Improved access to short‐term income opportunities for the poor and increased coverage of the Social Safety Net System Indicator 24: Beneficiaries Achieved EG Emergency Labor of Active 2017: 144,669 (direct Jobs), Intensive Investment Labor‐Intensive Public 96,971.00 (indirect jobs). (P126339, FY12); Social Works 34% direct jobs for women. Safety Nets TA Baseline: 0 (2014) 69% of jobs created for (P132258,FY16); Egypt Target: 185,000, of which: youth. Jobs Study EW (P130359, a) 40% female x FY15); b) 60% youth Source: P126339 ICRR Egypt Social Inclusion AA Page #5 (P162423, FY18); Human Capital (P167716, Indicator 25: Households Partially Achieved FY) registered in unified SSN 2016: As of September registry 2016, program enrolment (number) (coverage) has reached Baseline: 0 (2014) 694,455 HHs. Target: 10 million (2016) Source: P145699 - Implementation Status Results Report : Sequence 03, page 2. Indicator 26: Poor Achieved households benefiting from 2020: 3.11 million direct the new Cash project beneficiaries from Transfer Program (number) cash transfers (including The target is achieved based on Baseline: 0 (2014) 74% women); while 11.10 an average household size of 3, Target: 1.5 million (2020) million direct and indirect specified in the PAD for beneficiaries. P145699, page 25. Source: P145699 - Sequence No : 11, page 2. Objective 12: Increased access to quality health care services Indicator 27: Targeted Achieved. family health care facilities 34 CPS FY167-21 Focus Area 1: Promoting Results Interventions Supporting IEG Comments Diversified Growth and Validated by IEG Objectives Enhanced Productivity in the poorest ten 2017: 682 health care Health Care Quality governorates receiving facilities in 1,077 of the Improvement Project accreditation certification poorest villages. (P080228, FY10); Baseline: 0 (2014) Source: P080228 ICRR, Supporting Universal Target: 400 (2017) page 9. Health Insurance (P172426, FY20); Indicator 28: People with Achieved Egypt Health Insurance access to a basic package 2017: 5.4 million people (P1272736, FY20); of health, nutrition or Source: P080228 ICRR, Healthcare Support Project population services page 9 (P149622, FY18) Baseline: 0 (2015) Target: 1,000,000 (2017) Indicator 29: Citizens Achieved screened for 2020: > 60 million Hepatitis C Source: Egypt State Baseline: 0 (2014) Information Target: 30 million (2020) Objective 13: Increased access to housing for low‐income households Indicator 30: Number of Partially Achieved Inclusive Housing Finance targeted households 20: 243,450 households of Program (P150993, FY15); accessing ownership and which 19% are headed by Inclusive Housing Finance rental housing units with Females. AF (P168582, FY20) support from the Program • 34% of beneficiaries in (number) bottom 20% of the income Total distribution. Baseline: 0 (2015) Source: P150993 - Target: 575,000 (2019), Sequence No : 08 Page #9 Of which in the bottom 20% of the income distribution Baseline: 0 (2015) Target: 50% (2019) Of which female‐headed households Baseline: 0 (2015) Target: 20% (2019) Objective 14: Increased access to sanitation and sewage services in rural areas Indicator 31: Users in rural Partially Achieved Sustainable Rural areas with access to Total: 119,000 Sanitation Services improved sanitation and Source: P094311, P119805 Program for Results sewerage services ICR Page iii (P154112, FY16); Second Baseline: 0 (2014) Integrated Sanitation and Target: 2,483,000 (2019) Sewerage Project (P120161, FY11); Intergraded Sanitation Program trust fund (P094311, P119805, FY08); Rural Sanitation P154201 TA, FY15; 35 CPS FY167-21 Focus Area 1: Promoting Results Interventions Supporting IEG Comments Diversified Growth and Validated by IEG Objectives Enhanced Productivity Water and sanitation sector strategy (P160723, FY18) Objective 15: Increased household access to natural gas Indicator 32: Households Achieved Household Natural Gas connected to the natural 2020: 1,560,000 Connection Project gas networks under Source: P146007 - (P146007, FY14); Egypt program Sequence No : 12 Page #2 Gas Hub Infrastructure Baseline: 0 (2014) Expansion Target: 1.5 million (2020) (P173147,FY20); EG- Indicator 33: Female Achieved Natural Gas Connections project 2020: 50% Project beneficiaries from Source: P146007 - (P095392, FY08); Household Sequence No : 12 Page #3 Modernizing Egypt's Oil Gas Connections Project and Gas Sector AA Baseline: 0 (P162878, FY21); Egypt: Target: 50% (2020) Strengthening the capacity of the Gas Regulator (P163556, FY20) Objective 16: Improved education sector governance Indicator 34: White paper Achieved Education & Skills Modern. on sector wide 2016: Selected Issues and Project (P157809, education reform that Options for the Education FY18); AF-Supporting proposes policy measures Sector (series) Egypt Education Reform ( and interventions P173072, FY22); Review of addressing Education Development sector priorities and Fund AA (P153631, FY15) constraints developed and furnished Baseline: 0 (2015) Target: 1 (2017) Indicator 35: IBRD results‐ Achieved The concept review was in 2017. based project to support 2018: P157809 - Sequence Egypt Education Reform No. 09 includes 5 program prepared and disbursement linked launched indicators Baseline: 0 (2015) Target: 1 (2017) 36 Annex 2: Comments on Lending Portfolio IEG’s review found the following ending portfolio data that are not included in the CLR. Project Approval Closing Approved IBRD Project name ID FY FY Amount P157704 Fiscal Stabilization, Sustainable Energy and Competitiveness DPF 2016 2017 1000 P166597 Sustainable Rural sanitation Service Program AF 2019 2025 300 P168630 Private Sector Development for Inclusive Growth DPF 2019 2020 1000 P168414 Strengthening Social safety Nets AF 2020 2023 500 P168582 Inclusive Housing Finance AF 2020 2025 500 P164079 3rd Prog DPF onFiscal, Sust Engy&Comp 2018 2019 1150 P161228 2nd Prog DPL on Fiscal,Sust Energy& Comp 2017 2018 1000 Source: CPS and PLR, WB BI as of 3/17/22 Annex 3: Comments on ASA Portfolio IEG’s review found the following ASAs that are not included in the CLR: Fiscal Proj ID ASA Country Product Line RAS year Support the restructuring of the Egyptian P166394 Electricity Transmission Company (EETC) 2021 AA Energy & Extractives N Modernization of Egypt Land and Property P168246 Registration ASA 2021 AA Urban, Resilience and Land N ENGAGING MEN AND BOYS TO REDUCE FERTILTY RATES AND PREVENTING P170299 GENDER-BASED VIOLENCE IN EGYPT 2021 AA Health, Nutrition & Population N Programmatic Capacity Building Support to the Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation P171424 (MALR) 2021 AA Agriculture and Food N Support to Addressing Climate Change in Environment, Natural Resources P171953 Egypt, Djibouti and Yemen 2021 AA & the Blue Economy N P173397 Fiscal Transparency and Accountability 2021 AA Governance N Public Works and Welfare: A Randomized P159877 Control Trial of Egypt's Cash for Work Program 2020 AA Other N Egypt Governance Program - Public Resource P163373 Management for Fiscal Consolidation 2020 AA Governance N P163416 Egypt Strategic Governance Engagement 2020 AA Governance N P163446 Workshop on Implementing the SDGs in Egypt 2020 AA Governance N P172533 Egypt Poverty Assessment 2020 AA Poverty and Equity N P158933 Egypt Programmatic Poverty Work 2019 AA Poverty and Equity N Egypt: Energy Subsidy Reforms and Price P163557 Indexation 2019 AA Energy & Extractives N P166716 EG: Support for Solar PV Auctions 2019 AA Energy & Extractives N P168033 Egypt Agriculture Sector Dialogue 2019 AA Agriculture and Food N Finance, Competitiveness and P132470 MSME TA-Egypt MSME Development Facility 2018 AA Innovation N Environment, Natural Resources P157564 Air and Water Pollution Management Program 2018 AA & the Blue Economy N 37 Fiscal Proj ID ASA Country Product Line RAS year P158181 Capacity Buidiing support to the PMU 2018 AA Water N Clean Tech SME & Entrepreneurship Support Finance, Competitiveness and P158395 Program 2018 AA Innovation N P160227 Cairo Smart Service Delivery Project TA 2018 AA Urban, Resilience and Land N P160723 Water and sanitation sector strategy 2018 AA Water N P160724 Capacity building support to EWRA 2018 AA Water N Towards an investment case on nutrition in P161398 Egypt 2018 AA Health, Nutrition & Population N P162423 Egypt Social Inclusion 2018 AA Social Protection & Jobs N Egypt -Supporting Upper Egypt's Sustainable P164315 Local Development 2018 AA Urban, Resilience and Land N Towards a Transformational Reform in Egypt's P165146 Healthcare Sector 2018 AA Health, Nutrition & Population N P153516 Public Finance Management Modernization 2017 TA Governance N Supporting the Land Acquisition Policy and P154153 Institutional Reform in Egypt 2017 TA Urban, Resilience and Land N P154867 Egypt Energy Efficiency Implementation 2017 TA Energy & Extractives N Enhancing Broad-based Participation in Community Dialogue Processes related to P155297 Egypt's Democratic Transition 2017 TA Urban, Resilience and Land N EG: Phase II Support on Energy Subsidy P155336 Reforms 2017 TA Energy & Extractives N Mainstreaming Beneficiary Feedback in Select P156120 Sectors in Egypt 2017 TA Urban, Resilience and Land N Strengthening Egypt's Response to Viral P157533 Hepatitis 2017 TA Health, Nutrition & Population N P158182 Support to citizen engagement/GRM 2017 TA Water N P158365 Strengthening M&E systems 2017 EW Water N P158590 Improving WSCs Procurement Systems 2017 TA Water N P158641 Egypt Youth Engagement 2017 TA Urban, Resilience and Land N P159172 Regional Pilot: Egypt Public Finance 2017 TA Urban, Resilience and Land N P159534 Strategic Planning & Delivery Unit atMOP 2017 TA Energy & Extractives N P160679 Strengthening DRM in Egypt 2017 TA Urban, Resilience and Land N Egypt: Supporting the Petroleum Sector P162782 Modernization Program 2017 AA Energy & Extractives N P152071 Egypt Poverty Assessment 2016 EW Poverty and Equity N Govt Securities Market Dev. and Public Debt P117982 Mgmt 2016 TA Other Y Egypt Public Sector and Governance P146535 Technical Assistance Project Phase II 2016 TA Governance N Allocative Efficiency of Public Social P149290 Expendiiture in Egypt 2016 TA Social Protection & Labor N EG-Reimbursable Advisory Services for Suez Social, Urban, Rural and P150684 Canal Authority 2016 TA Resilience Global Practice Y P128526 Development Marketplace Egypt Program 2016 TE Other N P130359 Egypt Jobs Study 2015 EW Poverty and Equity N P149491 Egypt Power Sector PPP Framework 2015 EW Energy & Extractives N 38 Fiscal Proj ID ASA Country Product Line RAS year Macroeconomics, Trade and P149518 Strategic Public Expenditure Assessment 2015 EW Investment N P151340 Governance, Transparency and SA 2015 IE Health, Nutrition & Population N P132691 Universal Health Coverage 2015 PA Health, Nutrition & Population N P129680 EG Energy Pricing and Subsidy 2015 TA Energy & Extractives N DATA ANALYTICS FOR URBAN TRANSPORT TO MITIGATE CLIMATE P148192 CHANGE – CAIRO 2015 TA Transport N P151345 Senior Health Policy Seminar 2015 TA Health, Nutrition & Population N P153631 Review of Education Development Fund 2015 TA Education N P153970 White Paper: EG Energy Sector Challenges 2015 TA Energy & Extractives N Macroeconomics, Trade and P129863 EG-Development Marketplace 2015 TE Investment N Source: Standard Reports as of 3/17/21 * ASA Fiscal Year Completion/Delivery Annex 4: Comments on Trust Fund Portfolio IEG’s review found the following trust-funded activities that are not included in the CLR: Approved Project Approval Closing Amount Project name TF ID ID FY FY (US$, Million) P116230 Egypt: Sustainable POPs Management Project TF B3715 2021 2022 750,000 Support to the Preparation of Egypt’s First National P166814 Strategy for Development of Statistics TF B0639 2020 2021 159,420 Equal Access and Simplified Environment for P153487 Investment (EASE) in Egypt TF B1605 2020 2022 1,746,000 Equal Access and Simplified Environment for P153487 Investment (EASE) in Egypt TF A1553 2016 2020 5,000,000 P146143 Emergency Employment Investment Project TF 17007 2015 2018 87,352,504 P149677 Inclusive Regulations for Microfinance TF 17864 2015 2021 4,000,000 P149677 Inclusive Regulations for Microfinance TF 17336 2015 2022 8,100,000 P119483 Egypt Vehicle Scrapping and Recycling Program TF 17503 2015 2021 742,530 Establishment of a Transport Regulatory Authority in P143569 Greater Cairo TF 14420 2014 2017 300,000 P149704 EG-Urban Transport Infrastructure Development TF 15328 2014 2017 1,000,000 EGYPT Energy/Social Safety Nets Sector Reforms P144305 Technical Assistance TF 16152 2014 2019 6,500,000 P118090 EG-Enhanced Water Resources Management TF 12952 2013 2017 6,682,000 Regional Coordination for Improved Water Resources P130801 Mgt. & Capacity TF 12960 2013 2018 1,050,000 P117745 EGYPT-Farm-level Irrigation Modernization TF 13794 2013 2016 3,875,410 P124683 Participatory Farm-level Irrigation Modernization TF 98199 2012 2016 2,750,300 EG-Strengthening the Capacity of SIOIRAFI in project P124940 coordination, Monitoring & Supervision TF 99523 2012 2015 247,510 39 Approved Project Approval Closing Amount Project name TF ID ID FY FY (US$, Million) P113416 Egypt - Wind Power Development Project TF 96929 2011 2019 250,000 P119805 EG - Sanitation TF 95965 2011 2016 9,000,000 P094311 Integrated Sanitation& Sewerage Infrastructure Project TF 95516 2011 2016 2,911,175 P094311 Integrated Sanitation& Sewerage Infrastructure Project TF 96930 2010 2019 149,750,000 P094311 Integrated Sanitation& Sewerage Infrastructure Project TF 96553 2010 2020 2,583,766 P094311 Integrated Sanitation& Sewerage Infrastructure Project TF 15263 2010 2020 2,718,267 P094311 Integrated Sanitation& Sewerage Infrastructure Project TF 96554 2010 2015 2,564,018 Alexandria Coastal Zone Management Project (Under the Investment Fund for the Mediterranean Sea Large P095925 Marine Ecosystem) TF 96365 2010 2017 7,150,000 EG-LAND FILLING AND PROCESING SERVICES P110935 FOR SOUTHERN ZONE IN CAIRO TF 92102 2008 2016 950,000 P098737 ONYX solid Waste Alexandria - Carbon TF 56124 2006 2016 6,875,426 Total 315,008,325 Source: Client Connection as of 3/17/22 ** IEG Validates RETF that are 5M and above Annex 5: IEG Project Ratings IEG Project Ratings for Egypt FY15-21 Total IEG Risk to IEG Overall Bank Exit FY Proj ID Project name Evaluated IEG Outcome DO Perf. ($M) * EG-NATIONAL MODERATELY MODERATELY MODERATE 2015 P045499 DRAINAGE II 73.0 SATISFACTORY SATISFACTORY EG-Second Pollution MODERATELY SATISFACTORY SIGNIFICANT 2015 P090073 Abatement 20.0 SATISFACTORY EG-Natural Gas SATISFACTORY SIGNIFICANT SATISFACTORY 2015 P095392 Connections Project 73.5 EG-Affordable MODERATELY HIGH SATISFACTORY 2015 P112346 Mortgage Finance DPL 300.0 SATISFACTORY EG-INTEGRATED MODERATELY MODERATELY IRRIGATION IMPR. & MODERATE SATISFACTORY SATISFACTORY 2016 P073977 MGT 120.0 EG INTEGRATED SANITATION & UNSATISFACTORY HIGH UNSATISFACTORY 2016 P094311 SEWERAGE INFR 99.6 EG-Enhancing Access MODERATELY MODERATELY MODERATE 2016 P116011 to Finance for SMEs 300.0 SATISFACTORY SATISFACTORY 2016 P119805 EG - Sanitation 0.0 UNSATISFACTORY HIGH UNSATISFACTORY EG-Health Care Quality MODERATELY MODERATELY # 2017 P080228 Improv [ CLOSED ] 68.7 SATISFACTORY SATISFACTORY EG:GEF Alexandria MODERATELY SATISFACTORY SIGNIFICANT 2017 P095925 CZM /Lake Mariout 0.0 SATISFACTORY EG-Cairo Airport MODERATELY Development Project- SATISFACTORY MODERATE SATISFACTORY 2017 P101201 TB2 250.0 40 Total IEG Risk to IEG Overall Bank Exit FY Proj ID Project name Evaluated IEG Outcome DO Perf. ($M) * EG - Enhanced Water MODERATELY Resources SATISFACTORY SIGNIFICANT SATISFACTORY 2017 P118090 Management 0.0 EG Emergency Labor MODERATELY # SATISFACTORY 2017 P126339 Intensive Investment 193.2 SATISFACTORY 1st Prog DPL on Fisc. SATISFACTORY # SATISFACTORY 2017 P157704 Sust. Energ. &Comp 1,000.0 EG-Giza North Power SATISFACTORY # SATISFACTORY 2018 P116194 Project 686.7 EG-Farm-level MODERATELY MODERATELY # 2018 P117745 Irrigation Modernization 100.0 SATISFACTORY SATISFACTORY Regional Coordination SATISFACTORY # SATISFACTORY 2018 P130801 for Improved Water 0.0 Emergency Employment SATISFACTORY # SATISFACTORY 2018 P146143 Investment Project 0.0 2nd Prog DPL on Fiscal,Sust Energy& SATISFACTORY # SATISFACTORY 2018 P161228 Comp 1,000.0 MODERATELY SATISFACTORY # 2019 P100047 EG: Ain Sokhna Power 488.3 SATISFACTORY EG-Wind Power MODERATELY MODERATELY # 2019 P113416 Development 57.8 SATISFACTORY SATISFACTORY EG - Helwan South MODERATELY SATISFACTORY # 2019 P117407 Power Project 419.2 SATISFACTORY EG: Integratd HIGHLY MODERATELY Sanitation & Sew. Infra. # UNSATISFACTORY UNSATISFACTORY 2019 P120161 2 110.0 DTF:EG-Energy/Social SATISFACTORY # SATISFACTORY 2019 P144305 Sectors Reform TF 0.0 3rd Prog DPF onFiscal, SATISFACTORY # SATISFACTORY 2019 P164079 Sust Engy&Comp 1,150.0 Promoting Innovation SATISFACTORY # SATISFACTORY 2020 P146244 for Inclusive FA 299.9 EGYPT-Railways MODERATELY MODERATELY # 2021 P101103 Restructuring 483.9 UNSATISFACTORY UNSATISFACTORY Total 7,293.8 Note: IEG Risk to DO rating was dropped in July 2017 following the reform of the simplified ICRs but a narrative evaluation for Risk to Development Outcome was kept. Source: Business Intelligence (BI) as of March 18, 2022 IEG Project Ratings for Egypt and Comparators, FY15-21 RDO % RDO % Total Total Outcome Outcome Moderate or Moderate or Region Evaluated Evaluated ($M) % Sat ($) % Sat (No) Lower Lower (No) Sat ($) Sat (No) Egypt 7,293.7 27 90.5 85.2 60.1 36.4 MNA 16,467.1 123 86.7 80.5 30.4 25.8 World 166,265.8 1,614 84.2 77.7 40.1 37.4 Source: Business Intelligence (BI) as of 3/18/22; *IEG Calculation 41 Annex 6: Portfolio Status for Egypt and Comparators, FY15-21 Fiscal year 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Avg FY15-21 Egypt # Proj 17 16 14 14 11 11 12 14 # Proj At Risk 5 2 5 1 1 3 % Proj At Risk 29.41 12.50 35.71 7.14 9.09 - - 13.4 Net Comm Amt 5,790.4 6,800.4 6,745.4 6,695.4 5,680.0 5,830.0 5,870.0 6,201.7 Comm At Risk 1,050.4 175.0 1,170.0 500.0 600.0 699.1 % Commit at Risk 18.10 2.60 17.30 7.50 10.60 11.2 MNA # Proj 80 76 68 74 78 85 93 79 # Proj At Risk 38 26 25 12 15 19 18 22 % Proj At Risk 47.5 34.2 36.8 16.2 19.2 22.4 19.4 27.9 Net Comm Amt 11,668.5 14,459.5 15,243.3 16,994.8 19,277.7 20,083.2 22,142.2 17,124.2 Comm At Risk 2,787.2 1,826.9 3,416.9 1,393.5 2,537.5 4,715.0 3,984.8 2,951.7 % Commit at Risk 23.9 12.6 22.4 8.2 13.2 23.5 18.0 17.4 World # Proj 1,402 1,398 1,459 1,496 1,570 1,723 1,763 1,544.4 # Proj At Risk 339 336 344 348 346 311 331 336 % Proj At Risk 24.2 24.0 23.6 23.3 22.0 18.0 18.8 22.0 Net Comm Amt 191,907.8 207,350.0 212,502.9 229,955.6 243,812.2 262,930.6 279,167.9 232,518.1 Comm At Risk 44,430.7 42,715.1 50,837.9 48,148.8 51,949.5 47,640.5 42,668.7 46,913.0 % Commit at Risk 23.2 20.6 23.9 20.9 21.3 18.1 15.3 20.5 Source: Business Intelligence (BI) as of 3/18/22 Note: Only IBRD and IDA Agreement Type are included 42 Annex 7: Comments on IFC Investments in Egypt IEG’s review found the following Investment portfolio are not included in the CLR: Net Net Total Net Project Institution Cmt Project Orig Cmt- Project Short Name Primary Sector Name Commitment Commitment Commitment ID Number FY Status IFC Bal (LN) (EQ) (LN+EQ) Nonmetallic Mineral 41279 Pasabahce Egypt 1029057 2021 Active 30,000.0 30,000.0 - 30,000.0 Product Manufacturing 43317 Camel Ride 1015688 2021 Active Health Care 67,750.0 45,000.0 22,750.0 67,750.0 Wholesale and Retail 43811 CI MaxAB 1050977 2021 Active 3,000.0 - 3,000.0 3,000.0 Trade 44269 Humania COVID 1050524 2021 Active Health Care 11,000.0 11,000.0 - 11,000.0 45616 Fawry RI 719965 2021 Active Finance & Insurance 1,021.7 - 1,021.7 1,021.7 40137 Lekela EG Wind 1 1022265 2020 Active Electric Power 30,280.0 30,280.0 - 30,280.0 Industrial & Consumer 40384 Globaltronics 1023743 2020 Active 9,990.0 - 9,990.0 9,990.0 Products Collective Investment 43004 Lorax II 1040591 2020 Active 25,000.0 - 25,000.0 25,000.0 Vehicles 43830 Humania Egypt Eq 1037082 2020 Active Health Care 24,900.0 - 24,900.0 24,900.0 43971 Fawry IPO 1004606 2020 Closed Finance & Insurance 289.9 - 289.9 289.9 Nonmetallic Mineral 37095 MEG 811210 2019 Active 30,000.0 30,000.0 - 30,000.0 Product Manufacturing 40783 ESIP Vezeeta 1025946 2019 Closed Health Care 1,000.0 - 1,000.0 1,000.0 40991 Edita 736804 2019 Active Food & Beverages 15,000.0 15,000.0 - 15,000.0 42690 AXA EGP RI 2019 810184 2019 Active Finance & Insurance 193.7 - 193.7 193.7 Construction and Real 42876 Hassan Allam RI 755704 2019 Active 350.0 - 350.0 350.0 Estate 37580 SECI ARC 813675 2018 Active Electric Power 16,700.0 16,700.0 - 16,700.0 37591 Phoenix Power1 813825 2018 Active Electric Power 18,387.0 18,387.0 - 18,387.0 37633 Alcazar Solar 1 1002849 2018 Active Electric Power 14,250.0 14,250.0 - 14,250.0 37636 Delta Solar 1002852 2018 Active Electric Power 14,000.0 14,000.0 - 14,000.0 37637 TaqaArabia Solar 1022215 2018 Active Electric Power 17,800.0 17,403.0 - 17,403.0 43 Net Net Total Net Project Institution Cmt Project Orig Cmt- Project Short Name Primary Sector Name Commitment Commitment Commitment ID Number FY Status IFC Bal (LN) (EQ) (LN+EQ) 37713 SECI Winnergy 1022336 2018 Active Electric Power 7,950.0 7,900.9 - 7,900.9 38323 Almarai 1007286 2018 Active Finance & Insurance 100,000.0 100,000.0 - 100,000.0 39595 CIB Subdebt 4172 2018 Active Agriculture and Forestry 22,000.0 22,000.0 - 22,000.0 39716 Wadi IV 514086 2018 Active Electric Power 17,900.0 17,900.0 - 17,900.0 39728 SP Infra Solar 1022162 2018 Active Electric Power 16,300.0 16,026.2 - 16,026.2 39729 Acciona Benban 1 1020323 2018 Active Electric Power 16,300.0 15,860.9 - 15,860.9 39995 Acciona Benban 2 1021672 2018 Active Electric Power 16,300.0 15,838.6 - 15,838.6 39997 Acciona Benban 3 1021673 2018 Active Electric Power 7,950.0 7,859.1 - 7,859.1 40019 SECI Arinna 1021754 2018 Active Chemicals 15,000.0 15,000.0 - 15,000.0 40047 Vinavil Egypt 1021847 2018 Active Finance & Insurance 801.3 - 801.3 801.3 40195 AXA EGP RI 2017 810184 2018 Active Electric Power 19,250.0 16,750.0 - 16,750.0 40386 Alcazar Solar 3 1024148 2018 Active Electric Power 19,250.0 16,750.0 - 16,750.0 40390 Alcazar Solar 4 1024149 2018 Closed Chemicals 57,150.0 57,150.0 - 57,150.0 41098 EFC Egypt II 696885 2018 Active Finance & Insurance 368.7 - 368.7 368.7 41311 AXA EGP RI 2018 810184 2017 Active Finance & Insurance 15,000.0 - 14,760.0 14,760.0 Collective Investment 36979 AXA Egypt Insura 810184 2017 Active 10,000.0 - 10,000.0 10,000.0 Vehicles Collective Investment 37639 Algebra Ventures 1002863 2017 Active 2,500.0 - 2,500.0 2,500.0 Vehicles 38087 ISC-Flat6 Cairo 1005852 2017 Closed Finance & Insurance 100,000.0 - - - Construction and Real 38160 AlexBank Loan 533751 2017 Active 20,000.0 - 20,000.0 20,000.0 Estate Accommodation & 38894 Hassan Allam Equ 755704 2016 Closed 10,500.0 5,150.0 - 5,150.0 Tourism Services 33360 Credence 810936 2016 Active Chemicals 25,000.0 15,000.0 - 15,000.0 Nonmetallic Mineral 35033 Carbon Holdings 785686 2016 Active 21,267.3 - 21,267.3 21,267.3 Product Manufacturing Transportation and 35288 Sphinx Glass 791265 2016 Active 91,858.0 91,858.0 - 91,858.0 Warehousing 44 Net Net Total Net Project Institution Cmt Project Orig Cmt- Project Short Name Primary Sector Name Commitment Commitment Commitment ID Number FY Status IFC Bal (LN) (EQ) (LN+EQ) 36828 Sonker 808278 2016 Closed Finance & Insurance 50,000.0 50,000.0 - 50,000.0 37029 NBK - Egypt 810383 2016 Closed Finance & Insurance 100,000.0 100,000.0 - 100,000.0 37161 AAIB SL 53448 2016 Closed Oil, Gas and Mining 694.4 694.4 - 694.4 37994 Petroceltic II 754431 2015 Closed Oil, Gas and Mining 50,000.0 - - - Construction and Real 25769 PICO RBL 791540 2015 Closed 60,000.0 - - - Estate 33294 Egyptian Centers 753505 2015 Closed Finance & Insurance 6,587.6 - 6,587.6 6,587.6 36743 AUBE RI II 500983 2015 Closed Health Care 820.5 - 820.5 820.5 36816 DAF Rights Issue 540680 2015 Closed Health Care 820.5 - 820.5 820.5 Source: IFC-MIS Extract as of 1/31/22 Annex 8: Comments on IFC Advisory Services in Egypt IEG’s review found the following AS are not included in the CLR: Impl Start Impl End Primary Project ID Project Name Total Funds Managed by IFC FY FY Business Area 605323 Infinity-e: developing e-mobility in Egypt 2021 2022 INR 180,000 602602 Tadamun 2 2018 2020 FIG 391,173 601272 Responsible Finance MENA 2017 2020 FIG 350,015 601458 Bank Audi Egypt 2016 2018 FIG 105,453 Annex 9: Comments on MIGA Guarantees IEG’s review found no differences in MIGA guarantees vs. what is presented in the CLR. 45 Annex 10: Economic and Social Indicators for Egypt FY15-20 Egypt MNA World Series Name 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Average 2015-2020 Growth and Inflation GDP growth (annual %) 4.4 4.3 4.2 5.3 5.6 3.6 4.6 1.3 2.0 GDP per capita growth (annual %) 2.1 2.1 2.0 3.2 3.5 1.6 2.4 -0.39 0.9 GNI per capita, PPP (current international $) 11,310.0 11,040.0 10,800.0 11,350.0 11,820.0 12,220.0 11,423.3 10,320.5 16,365.5 GNI per capita, Atlas method (current US$) 3,340.0 3,440.0 3,030.0 2,790.0 2,690.0 3,000.0 3,048.3 3,639.4 10,879.4 Inflation, consumer prices (annual %) 10.4 13.8 29.5 14.4 9.2 5.0 13.7 3.0 2.0 Composition of GDP (%) Agriculture, forestry, and fishing, value added (% of GDP) 11.4 11.8 11.5 11.2 11.0 11.6 11.4 9.6 4.1 Industry (including construction), value added (% of GDP) 36.6 32.5 33.8 35.0 35.6 32.0 34.2 32.5 26.6 Services, value added (% of GDP) 53.2 54.5 53.2 51.5 50.5 51.8 52.4 51.2 64.6 Gross fixed capital formation (% of GDP) 13.7 14.5 14.8 16.3 18.0 13.7 15.1 20.7 25.3 Gross domestic savings (% of GDP) 5.8 5.5 1.8 6.2 10.0 6.2 5.9 23.0 26.9 External Accounts Exports of goods and services (% of GDP) 13.2 10.3 15.8 18.9 17.5 13.1 14.8 25.6 28.0 Imports of goods and services (% of GDP) 21.7 19.9 29.3 29.4 25.7 20.7 24.4 31.6 27.3 Current account balance (% of GDP) -5.24 -6.16 -3.37 -3.08 -3.37 -3.90 -4.2 External debt stocks (% of GNI) 15.40 21.09 36.65 41.16 39.40 37.18 31.8 Total debt service (% of GNI) 1.2 2.0 2.9 3.2 3.0 3.4 2.6 3.2 Total reserves in months of imports 2.6 3.9 5.7 5.9 5.8 5.6 4.9 21.2 12.0 Fiscal Accounts /1 General government revenue (% of GDP) 22.0 20.3 21.8 20.7 20.3 19.2 20.7 .. General government total expenditure (% of GDP) 33.0 32.7 32.2 30.1 28.3 27.1 30.6 .. General government net lending/borrowing (% of GDP) -10.934 -12.469 -10.429 -9.437 -7.986 -7.865 -9.9 .. General government gross debt (% of GDP) 88.3 96.8 103.0 92.5 84.2 89.8 92.4 .. Health Life expectancy at birth, total (years) 71.3 71.5 71.7 71.8 72.0 .. 71.7 73.4 72.4 46 Egypt MNA World Series Name 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Average 2015-2020 Immunization, DPT (% of children ages 12-23 months) 93.0 95.0 94.0 95.0 95.0 .. 94.4 88.5 85.5 People using at least basic sanitation services (% of population) 62.9 63.7 64.6 65.5 66.3 67.1 65.0 45.4 50.7 People using at least basic drinking water services (% of population) 99.1 99.2 99.3 99.3 99.4 99.4 99.3 93.1 89.1 Mortality rate, infant (per 1,000 live births) 19.8 19.1 18.5 17.8 17.2 16.6 18.2 20.5 29.4 Education School enrollment, preprimary (% gross) .. 29.9 28.9 28.7 29.3 .. 29.2 28.3 59.2 School enrollment, primary (% gross) .. 105.4 106.1 106.3 106.4 .. 106.1 104.4 102.7 School enrollment, secondary (% gross) .. 85.1 86.7 87.9 89.5 .. 87.3 76.9 75.7 School enrollment, tertiary (% gross) 35.0 33.9 35.2 38.9 .. .. 35.7 38.6 38.4 Population Population, total 92,442,549 94,447,071 96,442,590 98,423,602 100,388,076 102,334,403 97,413,049 375,378,078 7,557,979,727 Population growth (annual %) 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.9 2.1 1.7 1.1 Urban population (% of total population) 42.8 42.7 42.7 42.7 42.7 42.8 42.7 61.2 55.0 Rural population (% of total population) 57.2 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.2 57.3 38.8 45.0 Poverty Poverty headcount ratio at $1.90 a day (2011 PPP) (% of population) 1.6 .. 3.8 .. .. .. 2.7 9.7 Poverty headcount ratio at national poverty lines (% of population) 27.8 .. 32.5 .. .. .. 30.2 Gini index (World Bank estimate) 31.8 .. 31.5 .. .. .. 31.7 Source: World bank Data Bank as of 3/18/22 International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, October 2021 47