Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No: ICR00005991 IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION AND RESULTS REPORT TF098979, TFA0595 ON A SMALL GRANT IN THE AMOUNT OF US$1.8 MILLION And ON A SMALL GRANT IN THE AMOUNT OF US$2.2 MILLION TO THE FEDERAL DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF ETHIOPIA FOR LSMS-ISA Ethiopia Rural Socioeconomic Survey (P125475) November 30, 2022 Development Economics, Data Group Other Global Practice Eastern And Southern Africa Region Regional Vice President: Victoria Kwakwa Country Director: Ousmane Dione Regional Director: Asad Alam Director: Haishan Fu Practice Manager: Calogero Carletto Task Team Leaders: Alemayehu A. Ambel, Dean Mitchell Jolliffe ICR Main Contributors: Alemayehu A. Ambel, Christelle Kouame ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS AgSS Annual Agricultural Sample Survey BMGF Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation CAS Country Assistance Strategy CPF Country Partnership Framework CSA Central Statistics Agency DHS Demographic and Health Survey ERSS Ethiopia Rural Socioeconomic Survey ESPS Ethiopia Socioeconomic Panel Survey [Also called, at different times, the Ethiopia Rural Socioeconomic Survey (ERSS) and the Ethiopia Socioeconomic Survey (ESS)] ESS Ethiopian Statistics Office GPS Global Positioning System HCES Household Consumption Expenditure Survey LSMS Living Standards Measurement Study LSMS-ISA Living Standards Measurement Study—Integrated Surveys on Agriculture NSDS National Strategy for the Development of Statistics PASDEP Plan for Accelerated and Sustained Development to Eradicate Poverty PDO Project Development Objective RICS Rural Investment Climate Survey WMS Welfare Monitoring Survey TABLE OF CONTENTS DATA SHEET ....................................................................... ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. I. PROJECT CONTEXT AND DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES ....................................................... 4 II. OUTCOME ...................................................................................................................... 7 III. FACTORS THAT AFFECTED IMPLEMENTATION AND OUTCOMES ..................................... 10 IV. BANK PERFORMANCE, COMPLIANCE ISSUES, AND RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME .. 11 V. LESSONS LEARNED AND RECOMMENDATIONS .............................................................. 12 ANNEX 1. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND KEY OUTPUTS ........................................................... 13 ANNEX 2. PROJECT COST BY COMPONENT ........................................................................... 16 ANNEX 3. RECIPIENT, CO-FINANCIER, AND OTHER PARTNER/STAKEHOLDER COMMENTS ..... 17 ANNEX 4. SUPPORTING DOCUMENTS .................................................................................. 18 The World Bank LSMS-ISA Ethiopia Rural Socioeconomic Survey (P125475) DATA SHEET BASIC INFORMATION Product Information Project ID Project Name P125475 LSMS-ISA Ethiopia Rural Socioeconomic Survey Country Financing Instrument Ethiopia Investment Project Financing Original EA Category Revised EA Category Not Required (C) Not Required (C) Organizations Borrower Implementing Agency Ministry of Finance Central Statistical Agency Project Development Objective (PDO) Original PDO The idea of the RES is rooted in the need to develop and implement a multi-topic survey that meets Ethiopia's data demands and gaps, is of high quality, accessible to the public, and aligned with the National Strategy for the Development of Statistics (NSDS) covering 2009/10-2013/14. The RES will be an additional input to the monitoring of Ethiopia's poverty reduction strategy (PASDEP). Page 1 of 20 The World Bank LSMS-ISA Ethiopia Rural Socioeconomic Survey (P125475) FINANCING FINANCE_TBL Original Amount (US$) Revised Amount (US$) Actual Disbursed (US$) Donor Financing TF-A0595 2,250,000 2,250,000 2,250,000 TF-98979 1,832,356 1,826,392 1,826,392 Total 4,082,356 4,076,392 4,076,392 Total Project Cost 4,082,356 4,076,392 4,076,392 KEY DATES Approval Effectiveness Original Closing Actual Closing 01-Feb-2011 11-Apr-2011 30-Jun-2020 31-May-2022 RESTRUCTURING AND/OR ADDITIONAL FINANCING Date(s) Amount Disbursed (US$M) Key Revisions 06-May-2020 3.31 Change in Results Framework Change in Loan Closing Date(s) Change in Implementation Schedule KEY RATINGS Outcome Bank Performance M&E Quality Satisfactory Satisfactory Substantial RATINGS OF PROJECT PERFORMANCE IN ISRs Actual No. Date ISR Archived DO Rating IP Rating Disbursements (US$M) 01 20-Apr-2020 Satisfactory Satisfactory 3.31 02 19-Jan-2022 Satisfactory Satisfactory 3.48 Page 2 of 20 The World Bank LSMS-ISA Ethiopia Rural Socioeconomic Survey (P125475) ADM STAFF Role At Approval At ICR Regional Vice President: Obiageli Katryn Ezekwesili Victoria Kwakwa Country Director: Kenichi Ohashi Ousmane Dione Director: Martin Ravallion Haishan Fu Practice Manager: Peter F. Lanjouw Calogero Carletto Alemayehu A. Ambel, Dean Task Team Leader(s): Kathleen G. Beegle Mitchell Jolliffe ICR Contributing Author: Alemayehu A. Ambel Page 3 of 20 The World Bank LSMS-ISA Ethiopia Rural Socioeconomic Survey (P125475) I. PROJECT CONTEXT AND DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES Context A. Country Context When the project was conceived in 2011, the Central Statistical Agency (CSA; now the Ethiopian Statistics Service, ESS), was regularly conducting only a few large-scale household surveys. Among them were the Household Consumption Expenditure Survey (HCES), the Welfare Monitoring Survey (WMS), the Demographic Health Survey (DHS), and the Annual Agricultural Sample Survey (AgSS). Data from the AgSS surveys of farm and livestock households were used to produce crop forecasts and production estimates. By design these surveys did not cover rural non-farm households. Nor did they elicit socioeconomic information, such as non-farm businesses, wage employment, or proxy poverty measures. The WMS and HCES (2010) covered basic living measures and costs but collected little information on agriculture or sources of non-farm income. Although these surveys encompassed a wide range of topics relevant to monitoring welfare, the data did not link the living standards of households (especially rural) to livelihood strategies and measures of income diversification, such as the role of agriculture. Yet worldwide, rural development studies had consistently shown that household and community income diversification had evolved to be the norm, rather than the exception, and that agriculture constituted a crucial sector of employment in rural economies for which there was evidence available. Higher incomes and lower risk exposure could be achieved by enhancing the links between the different income sources of the rural poor. However, the data to study these issues were inadequate. Similar problems plagued the data on urban households, where information on informal activities linked with welfare and demographic outcomes was scarce. The Rural Investment Climate Survey (RICS), conducted by the ESS in 2006/07 with support from the World Bank. addressed the information gap for rural households. It was conducted on a subset of the AgSS households and a booster sample of non-farm rural households. After this survey was completed, the ESS made plans for an improved version of the RICS, which the ESS referred to as a rural economy survey. The new survey was originally to be conducted in 2010 and thereafter annually. It was expected to complement the AgSS, which collected only agricultural data. In April 2008, the ESS formally requested financial and technical support from the World Bank to implement this new survey initiative. As a response to the ESS request for continued collaboration on rural household survey efforts, the World Bank project concept note drew heavily on this original idea and introduced a panel dimension to the survey design. B. Sectoral and Institutional Context The Living Standards Measurement Study—Integration Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS-ISA) in Ethiopia was designed to support a project to address data gaps in agriculture, education, finance, health, and numerous other sectors. The intent was to facilitate evidence-based policymaking on a wide range of development issues by making multitopic data freely available to the public. Page 4 of 20 The World Bank LSMS-ISA Ethiopia Rural Socioeconomic Survey (P125475) C. Relationship to the Country Assistance Strategy (CAS), the Country Partnership Strategy (CPS), and the Country Partnership Framework (CPF) The LSMS-ISA Ethiopia project has been listed in the Ethiopia Country Partnership Framework for the period FY18-FY22 (CPF) as supporting the Ethiopia Socioeconomic Panel Survey (ESPS).1 In addition to making data available to the public, ESPS aimed to contribute to the analytical work programs, such as poverty assessment and sectoral diagnostics reports. Data from this survey were also expected to inform the design and the monitoring and evaluation (M&E) of World Bank-supported projects. D. The Living Standard Measurement Study—Integrated Surveys on Agriculture To further the goal of improving agricultural statistics, the World Bank, with funding from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF), is supporting the efforts of eight countries in Sub-Saharan Africa— Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Malawi, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Tanzania, and Uganda—to produce comprehensive household data on agriculture. The over-arching objective of the LSMS—ISA project is to improve understanding of the role of agriculture in reducing poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa and the role of innovation and efficiency in agriculture. This goal has been achieved by crafting an innovative model for collecting agricultural data and applying it in the region. With partner countries, the LSMS-ISA project is establishing panel household surveys that emphasize agricultural data. The project has an ambitious agenda of activities. Its four basic tenets, designed to ensure that activities are cost-effective and sustainable and that over the long term the project is successful, are (1) using a multitopic framework; (2) integrating institutions; (3) building capacity; and (4) active dissemination of results: • Tenet (1) emphasizes that collecting agricultural data must be integrated into a broad, multitopic approach that goes beyond agriculture and rural areas. This facilitates production of the data needed to design effective agricultural policies both within the rural economy and in the country as a whole. • Tenet (2) requires that collecting agricultural data must be buttressed by a well-matched institutional setting conducive to collaboration and integration of data sources. By promoting a multipurpose approach to data collection, the project is fostering inter-sectoral collaboration and overcoming some existing institutional constraints. • Tenet (3) is building national capacity to enhance the value of the data generated and bolster the link between data producers and users. This covers both capacity to produce timely and relevant public-use data sets and capacity to analyze the data. Lack of analytical capacity in developing countries perpetuates low demand for data, which negatively affects the quality and availability of policy-relevant analysis. • Tenet (4) is active dissemination of results. Poor dissemination of the data available and the conclusions they support has aggravated long-standing problems. 1 The survey supported by the project has had different names at different times. When the concept note was being drafted, it was the Rural Socioeconomic Survey (RES). When project agreements were drafted that was changed to the Ethiopia Rural Socioeconomic Survey (ERSS), which was applied to the first wave in 2011/12. In 2013/14, after it was expanded to medium and large towns it was changed to the Ethiopia Socioeconomic Survey (ESS). For Wave 5 (2021/22) and this ICR, the ESPS is used to avoid confusion with the recent change of name of the implementing agency from the Central Statistical Agency (CSA) to the Ethiopian Statistics Service (ESS). Page 5 of 20 The World Bank LSMS-ISA Ethiopia Rural Socioeconomic Survey (P125475) E. Theory of Change The theory of change explains how completion of project activities produced outputs that in turn resulted in outcomes and helped the project to achieve the intended impact. The project has supported the ESS in designing and carrying out a survey program to produce relevant, timely, and high-quality multitopic socioeconomic data to support evidence-based decision-making by Ethiopian policy-makers. The project provided statistical building activities based on the latest data collection technology and measurement approaches. It also supported ESS acquisition of physical equipment, such as field vehicles, Global Positioning System (GPS) devices, and CAPI tables. The knowledge, skills, and experience gained are transferable to other surveys implemented by the ESS and other agencies. The capacity build has enabled the ESS to undertake complex household surveys and produce high-quality data, the availability of which is facilitating research on a variety of issues that promoted evidence-based policy making by the Government of Ethiopia and its development partners. Project Development Objectives (PDOs) The objective of the project is to support the design and implementation of the Ethiopia Rural Socioeconomic Survey (ERSS). The ESPS is rooted in the need for a multitopic survey that meets Ethiopia's data demands and gaps, is of high quality, accessible to the public, and aligned with the National Strategy for the Development of Statistics (NSDS) covering 2009/10-2013/14. The RES will be an additional input to the monitoring of Ethiopia's poverty reduction strategy (PASDEP). Key Expected Outcomes and Outcome Indicators The project’s expected outcomes were to (1) improve the production of household agricultural statistics linked with non-agriculture dimensions of household welfare and behavior; and (2) disseminate and use ESPS data more broadly. The project has the following 2 PDO-level indicators: a) Data Production - Four waves (rounds) of multi-topic household data b) Data Production: One more wave (round) mutli-topic household survey Components Project activities designed to achieve the PDO were agreed upon with the ESS. The project had the following parts: a) Sampling and survey design: Finalize the sample design for the survey and select households to participate. b) Questionnaire design: Design a household questionnaire, an agriculture and livestock questionnaire, and a community questionnaire. c) Fieldwork: Collect information during major and minor agricultural seasons. Page 6 of 20 The World Bank LSMS-ISA Ethiopia Rural Socioeconomic Survey (P125475) d) Create a Computer Assisted Personal Interviewing (CAPI) application: Develop and apply a standardized and customizable CAPI application for paperless administration of the survey to a subsample of households. e) Methodological validation/innovation and technology: Carry out validation exercises for measurement and methodological issues in identified priority areas to ensure sustainable systems and improve the timeliness and accuracy of household survey data. f) Capacity building: Identify a program of activities to build the capacity of participating stakeholders and the ESS to carry out the project. g) Data documentation and dissemination: Preparation and dissemination of fully cleaned anonymized, and documented data sets from the survey. II. OUTCOME Assessment of Achievement of Each Objective and Outcome Achievement of the PDO is aligned with progress toward higher levels of outcome that are supported by the outputs and activities delivered by the project. The LSMS-ISA Ethiopia project (P125475) was approved on April 07, 2011, in the amount of US$1.83 million (Grant TF098979), with additional financing approved July 30, 2015, in the amount of US$2.25 million (Grant TF0A595), bringing the total project amount to US$4.08 million. Through this project, the ESS, and the LSMS, World Bank teams have been working together for more than 10 years to produce and disseminate high-quality multitopic data. The project has implemented all planned project activities and achieved the intended results. The funds have been fully utilized and the expected deliverables achieved or exceeded. The project provided survey equipment including field vehicles, computers and accessories, CAPI tablets, and GPS machines. The project also provided technical assistance on questionnaire design, data collection, data management, and reporting and data dissemination. This project also created a conducive platform for conducting several survey methods experiments. Five rounds of the survey have been implemented – Waves 1(2011/12), 2 (2013/14), 3 (2015/2016), 4 (2018/2019), and 5 (2021/2022).2 Researchers and policymakers are making active use of data from these projects. The multi-topic nature of the survey benefited data users from a variety of backgrounds and has made it possible to address issues from numerous economic sectors. The project has also allowed analysts to better understand issues with inter-sectoral links which previously were not resolvable in any national survey in Ethiopia. The surveys also provided evidence that informed several unrelated World Bank-supported projects there. 2 ESPS1: https://microdata.worldbank.org/index.php/catalog/2053. ESPS2: https://microdata.worldbank.org/index.php/catalog/2247. ESPS3: https://microdata.worldbank.org/index.php/catalog/2783. ESPS4: https://microdata.worldbank.org/index.php/catalog/3823. Page 7 of 20 The World Bank LSMS-ISA Ethiopia Rural Socioeconomic Survey (P125475) Sampling and Survey Design [Related to project part (a) Finalization of the sample design for the survey and selection of households to participate] While the project was active the survey sample was updated three times, and there were a few other variations: • The sample generated for the first wave covered about 4,000 rural and small-town households. Wave 1 was representative of the most populous regions: Amhara, Oromiya, SNNP, and Tigray. • Wave 2 added to the first sample 1,500 households from medium and large towns for a total of 5,500 households. Wave 2 is thus representative of urban as well as rural areas and at the regional level for the Wave 1 most populous regions plus Addis Ababa. • Wave 3 included all Wave 2 samples but was a panel survey that interviewed the same households over time in order to track national welfare and economic dynamics. • The panel was refreshed for Wave 4 in 2018/19. The Wave 4 sample covered all regional states and two administrative cities, Addis Ababa and Dire Dawa. It is representative at the regional level in addition to the rural and urban levels. • Wave 5 (2021/22) followed Wave 4 households. Questionnaire Design [Related to project part (b) Questionnaire design: Design (1) a household questionnaire, (2) an agriculture and livestock questionnaire, and (3) a community questionnaire.] Three separate questionnaires were designed and applied in each wave: household, agriculture, and community questionnaire. The household questionnaire covered a range of demographic and socioeconomic indicators. The agriculture questionnaire asked for detailed information on post-planting and post-harvest agricultural and livestock husbandry activities. The community questionnaire asked about community infrastructure and amenities and was administered to key informants residing in the same enumeration areas as the ESPS households. The questionnaire review process ensured that all priority data needs were covered. This was facilitated by data users workshops and communications with experts from government ministries, local academic and research institutions, and international organizations. In addition, close collaboration with the CMU and TTLs in Ethiopia facilitated incorporation of modules relevant to Bank supported projects. Implementation: Field Work, CAPI Development, and Methodological Validation [Related to project parts (c), (d) &(e): Fieldwork, CAPI Development and Methodological Validation] Fieldwork in rural areas was fully integrated with the Annual Agricultural Sample Survey and closely followed the post-planting and post-harvest seasons; households in these areas were interviewed twice. Urban households were visited once with the household questionnaire. Community information is collected once in each round in the enumeration area. In addition, GPS coordinates were collected for every household in each round. In addition, for the agriculture households, areas of cultivated agricultural plots were measured using GPS technology. Using these coordinates of households and plots, several geospatial variables were generated and added to the microdata. Page 8 of 20 The World Bank LSMS-ISA Ethiopia Rural Socioeconomic Survey (P125475) Concurrent data entry was used for the first two rounds (Waves 1 and 2). CAPI, designed with the World Bank’s Survey Solutions software, was partly introduced in Wave 3 and fully implemented in Waves 4 and 5. The following survey methodology experiments were conducted: (1) farmland area measurement experiment comparing farmer-reported plot areas with GPS measurements and compass-and-rope measurements; (2) soil fertility measurement; (3) crop varietal identification (crop varieties can be identified objectively using DNA fingerprinting to assess possible errors in farmer-reported information on varietal names and attributes; (4) a survey of nonstandard units for food and crop quantities used to establish guidelines for use of nonstandard units in food and harvest data collection; and (5) drinking water quality measurement in household surveys that compared subjective approaches with field-based E. coli contamination tests. Data Documentation and Dissemination [Related to project part (g): Data documentation and dissemination: Preparation and dissemination of fully cleaned anonymized, and documented data sets from the survey.] All data generated are made publicly available (fully cleaned and with complete documentation) within 12months of completion of each wave of data collection. The survey data are disseminated via the World Bank Microdata Catalog and ESS websites. Additional dissemination activities conducted at different times include data launch workshops and presentations at local conferences. Capacity Building [Related to project part (f) Carrying out a program of activities to build the capacity of participating stakeholders and Central Statistical Agency of Ethiopia (CSA) for implementation of the project.] The long-term goal of the project was creating a sustainable system of collecting and disseminating household agriculture data integrated with socioeconomic variables. This required providing material and technical support to all phases of the production of high-quality household data and reinforcing agency capacity to ensure that the data generated serve the policy needs of the government and researchers. With support from the project, ESS purchased field vehicles, GPS devices, and CAPI tablets and the World Bank team provided short-term technical assistance (TA) and training as needed on specific aspects of data collection and management. Annual regional training workshops were organized on topics chosen in consultation with beneficiaries and development partners. The project the project provided support not only to the primary implementing agency, the ESS, but also to other government agencies and local research institutions and worked with experts from the National Bank of Ethiopia and the Ministry of Water and Energy. It also collaborated with the Ethiopian Economic Association and SPIA/CGIAR to build local research capacity. Project capacity-building activities have provided ESS staff with knowledge, skills, and experience that are directly transferable to other national surveys and monitoring activities by other government agencies. Overall Outcome Rating: Satisfactory Page 9 of 20 The World Bank LSMS-ISA Ethiopia Rural Socioeconomic Survey (P125475) Other Outcomes and Impacts The ESS data are used in major government evaluations and country flagship documents such as M&E of global and national goals. The data collected support local and international researchers who, as of November 2021, had published over 560 research papers. As shown in Annex 4.1. Project activities have also informed a variety of other Bank-supported projects. Projects jointly managed by Bank Water, Finance, and Social Protection Global Practices have used the ESPS data to inform Bank-supported projects implemented in Ethiopia. The ES PS data are also regularly used in country poverty assessments and economic updates by the World Bank and other organizations (Annex 4.2). The following are examples of impactful data use. • In 2020 and 2021, two newly approved World Bank projects (Productive Safety Net Project – US$ 512m and Crisis Response US$ 37.5m ) listed the survey as a key data source for monitoring implementation progress. • In 2020, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) used four waves of the ESPS data to evaluate how effective the Ethiopian Agricultural Transformation Agency had been in its 10 years of existence. Similarly, the Standing Panel on Impact Assessment of the Consultative Group for International Agricultural Research (SPIA/CGIAR) evaluated agricultural innovation adoption and diffusion in Ethiopia. The longitudinal nature of the ESPS survey facilitated these key assessments. • In 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic interrupted face-to-face data production, the 2018/19 ESPS data made possible a follow-up household phone survey to collect the immediate data needed to monitor the socioeconomic impacts of COVID-19 on households. • In 2017 two reports were released—the Water Quality Survey Report and the WASH Diagnostics Report— used were based on the ESPS data. The results informed the continuing water quality-focused One Wash project (US$ 300m). III. FACTORS THAT AFFECTED IMPLEMENTATION AND OUTCOMES Three factors affected how the project was implemented: 1. Because the ESS had updated the enumeration areas based on recent pre-census cartographic work, the project refreshed the sample and started a new panel in the 2018/19 wave. 2. The ESS rescheduled field-based survey activities due to pandemic restrictions. This affected the schedule for the last wave of the survey. 3. When Wave 5 began in 2021/22, security problems prevented fieldwork in some parts of the country. Page 10 of 20 The World Bank LSMS-ISA Ethiopia Rural Socioeconomic Survey (P125475) IV. BANK PERFORMANCE, COMPLIANCE ISSUES, AND RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME The World Bank LSMS team was responsible for management and technical supervision of the project; providing TA on its design and implementation; and supporting the analytical work. Bank Performance Overall Bank Performance Rating: Satisfactory Quality at Entry The project was built on experience acquired in the previous WB collaboration with ESS on the Rural Investment Climate Survey. This collaboration helped the LSMS/World Bank team to identify existing data gaps and challenges and opportunities to address them. The team pinpointed data gaps in rural and urban areas and the capacity-building needs related to in applying new survey approaches. Moreover, when this project began inception, the LSMS team had already launched the project in other LSMS-ISA project countries and so had useful experience to bring to bear in Ethiopia. Rating: Satisfactory Quality of Supervision The quality of supervision was adequate throughout the project. Supervision was particularly intense at the beginning of the project when the LSMS team worked closely with the ESS in designing and carrying out the project. The team organized training of trainers sessions and facilitated field staff training before each data collection visit. The team also coordinated data management, reporting, and dissemination activities and Bank financial management and procurement specialists were able to provide timely supervision and prompt advice and assistance to the ESS. When the COVID-19 pandemic interrupted in- country in-person supervision, the relationship between the LSMS team and ESS allowed for remote supervision in which the LSMS team conducted regular virtual meetings to discuss the status of the project. Rating: Satisfactory Risks for Sustainability Overall Risks for Sustainability Rating: Moderate Sustainable financing. Thanks to the results the project has achieved, coordination between development partners and ESS has improved. For example, Ethiopia is one of the countries approved to participate in the 50x2030 Initiative, which will provide the ESS with financial and technical support on carrying out additional agricultural surveys in addition to the country’s own contribution. The government has also demonstrated sustained financial commitment in its regular household and enterprise surveys. Risk Rating: Low Page 11 of 20 The World Bank LSMS-ISA Ethiopia Rural Socioeconomic Survey (P125475) Capacity of the public sector. The sustainability of investments in capacity-building and statistical infrastructure is based on client ownership and government commitment to mobilize financial support for ESS. In general, human and statistical infrastructure capacity was built, but high staff turnover triggered by low wages in the public sector could undermine the sustainability of capacity building and the effectiveness of training workshops. Documented methodological recommendations and established standards would mitigate the negative impact on institutional knowledge. Risk Rating: Moderate V. LESSONS LEARNED AND RECOMMENDATIONS A major factor in the success of the project was the Bank’s continued presence and interaction with ESS colleagues to cultivate a close relationship that supported effective collaboration and knowledge sharing. The local presence allowed the Bank team to be available throughout the survey process. In addition to supporting implementation of the survey and dissemination of the data, it is equally important to make the public widely aware that the data are available and encourage its use for policy analysis within the country. The sustained local presence encouraged engagement with other data users, among them local universities, think tanks, and research centers as well as other government ministries. Another important factor for the project’s success was the close links of the project team with the CMU and TTLs in various operational units. The CMU gave the team continuous support CMU. The interaction with the TTLs facilitated use of the data to inform World Bank support to Ethiopia. . Page 12 of 20 The World Bank LSMS-ISA Ethiopia Rural Socioeconomic Survey (P125475) ANNEX 1. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND KEY OUTPUTS A. RESULTS INDICATORS A.1 PDO Indicators Objective/Outcome: Improved production of household-level agriculture statistics linked with non-agriculture dimensions of household welfare and behavior Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion Data Production - Four waves Number 0.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 (rounds) of multi-topic household data 11-Apr-2011 30-Jun-2020 30-Jun-2020 30-Jun-2020 Comments (achievements against targets): Achieved. Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion Data Production: One more Number 0.00 1.00 1.00 wave (round) mutli-topic household survey 29-May-2020 31-May-2022 30-Jun-2022 Comments (achievements against targets): Achieved. Page 13 of 20 The World Bank LSMS-ISA Ethiopia Rural Socioeconomic Survey (P125475) A.2 Intermediate Results Indicators Component: Survey Instrument Development Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion Survey instruments and Number 0.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 fieldwork (four rounds) 01-Apr-2011 30-Jun-2020 30-Jun-2020 30-Jun-2020 Comments (achievements against targets): Achieved. Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion Survey instruments and Number 0.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 fieldwork (one round) 29-May-2020 31-May-2022 31-May-2022 31-Dec-2021 Comments (achievements against targets): Achieved. Page 14 of 20 The World Bank LSMS-ISA Ethiopia Rural Socioeconomic Survey (P125475) B. ORGANIZATION OF THE ASSESSMENT OF THE PDO Objective/Outcome 1 Five waves (rounds) nationally representative multitopic household Outcome Indicators surveys. Intermediate Indicators Survey instrument and five rounds of fieldwork 1. Conduct five waves of nationally representative multitopic household surveys to produce cleaned and archived data. 2. Create survey instruments. including sampling documents, questionnaires, manuals, and data entry application programs. Key Outputs by Component 3. Conducting training of trainers and training of enumerators. (linked to achievement of the Objective/Outcome 1) 4. Organize short-term training and experience=sharing visits for ESS staff on selected survey methodology themes. 5. Procure field vehicles for supervision and other survey equipment, such as GPS devices and CAPI tablets. Page 15 of 20 The World Bank LSMS-ISA Ethiopia Rural Socioeconomic Survey (P125475) . ANNEX 2. PROJECT COST BY COMPONENT Amount at Amount after Actual at Percentage of Components Approval Restructuring Project Closing Restructuring Amount (US$M) (US$M) (US$M) (%) TF-98979 1,832,356 1,832,356 100 TF-A0595 2,250,000 2,250,000 100 Total 1,832,356 2,250,000 4,082,356 100 Page 16 of 20 The World Bank LSMS-ISA Ethiopia Rural Socioeconomic Survey (P125475) ANNEX 3. RECIPIENT, CO-FINANCIER, AND OTHER PARTNER/STAKEHOLDER COMMENTS ESS Statement on the LSMS—ISA Ethiopia Socioeconomic Panel Survey The Ethiopian Statistics Service (ESS) and the World Bank Living Standards Measurement Study (LSMS), have a long history of collaborative survey projects. This collaboration on the Living Standards Measurement Study- Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS-ISA) project began in 2011 after the successful 2006/07 Rural Investment Climate Survey. ESS was excited to continue this course of the multitopic setting the LSMS-ISA project was planning. ESS actively monitored the implementation of the project from the beginning. It ensured that all the necessary resources were in place. ESS headquarters and field staff were involved at every step in the survey process starting with survey instrument development, training trainers, coordination of enumerator training, data collection, and data reporting and dissemination. The LSMS-ISA Ethiopia project was the first survey project to introduce Computer Assisted Personal Interviewing (CAPI) techniques in the country. It also boosted data collection and fieldwork supervision capacity by supporting the procurement of field vehicles and other survey equipment including GPS devices and computers. The project offered several training opportunities. The training of trainers and the fieldworker training events facilitated technical discussions on the design of the various modules included in the survey. Other short-term training and experience-sharing visits were also organized where ESS staff learned from surveys implemented in other countries. The project implemented the Ethiopia Socioeconomic Panel Survey and delivered five Waves of collecting longitudinal multitopic household data. The survey collected granular information on a wide array of agriculture and socioeconomic topics, including crop and livestock agriculture, education, health, labor, finance, credit, consumption, food security, shocks, and housing characteristics. It also collected geospatial data on such variables as rainfall, temperature, elevation, population density, and proximity to roads and market centers. The project also collected data at plot, individual, household, and community levels and created a favorable platform for survey methodology experiments related to land area, soil fertility, consumption, varietal identification, and measurement of drinking water quality in household surveys. The multisectoral nature of the survey made it possible to transfer knowledge to other ESS surveys. The LSMS—ISA project also facilitated ESS collaborations with other government agencies and development partners. For example, the financial inclusion module was included in the survey in collaboration with the National Bank of Ethiopia. Similarly, the drinking water quality measurement, the first of its kind in the country, was a collaborative work of ESS, the Ministry of Water and Energy, the World Bank, UNICEF, and WHO. ESS also partnered with the World Bank and the SPIA/CGIAR to pilot measurement of crop varietal identification in household surveys. Data from the Ethiopia Socioeconomic Panel Survey is the only comprehensive Ethiopian household survey data that is available to policymakers and program managers as well as local and international researchers. Research reports have already been produced on a range of topics. It has informed national development programs and provided evidence to monitor selected indicators of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). ESS appreciates the generous financial support from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and the technical support from the World Bank LSMS team. The skills gained and the lessons learned from this project will continue to enhance ESS technical capacity to carry out similar household surveys. Page 17 of 20 The World Bank LSMS-ISA Ethiopia Rural Socioeconomic Survey (P125475) ANNEX 4. SUPPORTING DOCUMENTS Annex 4.1 Selected World Bank Investment and ASA Projects Informed by the ESS Data COVID 19-Response - Ethiopia COVID-19 Supplemental Financing to the Second Ethiopia Growth and Competitiveness Programmatic Development Policy Financing (P169080) - Ethiopia COVID-19 Emergency Response Project Additional Financing (P175853) - Ethiopia COVID-19 High Frequency Phone Survey of Households Poverty Assessment, Migration, and Jobs - Rural to Urban and Out Migration: Providing Evidence on the Economic Aspects of Labor Migration in Ethiopia - (P177354) - Ethiopia Poverty, Gender, and Statistics (P143792) - Ethiopia Poverty Assessment (P147357) - Ethiopia Poverty, Employment, and Inclusion Assessment (P162136) Agriculture and Food Security - 50x2030 Data Production, Methods, and Use (P172771) - Scaling Up DNA Fingerprinting for Improved Crop Variety Identification in Household and Farm Surveys (P169899) Gender - Improving Individual-Level Survey Data -(P167986) Financial Inclusion - Ethiopia Financial Inclusion Country Support Program (P157954) Health Nutrition and Population - GFF Support Grant for HFCS Data Collection in Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Malawi, Nigeria, and Uganda (P176023) - Tobacco and Khat Use (P162964) Water - Ethiopia-One WASH-Consolidated Water Supply, Sanitation, and Hygiene Account Project (One WASCH CWA) (P167794) - Ethiopia WASH Poverty Diagnostic - (P156418) Fiscal Policy - Ethiopia Technical Assistance to Support Data Collection and Policy Guidance on Taxation and Gender (P174551) - Ethiopia Technical Assistance to Support Tax Policy Reforms (P174549) Page 18 of 20 The World Bank LSMS-ISA Ethiopia Rural Socioeconomic Survey (P125475) Annex 4.2 Selected World Bank and UN Agency Reports Using Ethiopia Socioeconomic Survey Data From World Bank and IMF Ethiopia Poverty Assessment: Harnessing Continued Growth for Accelerated Poverty Reduction. This poverty assessment is about the evolution of poverty and other social indicators in Ethiopia between 2010-11 and 2015- 2016 (henceforth referred to as 2011 and 2016). It uses data from a variety of sources, mainly the twinned household living standards surveys (HCES and WMS), the Ethiopia Socioeconomic Survey (ESS) and the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS). It documents trends in monetary and non-monetary dimensions of living standards and examines the drivers of observed trends, with a special focus on government programs. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/33544 Ethiopia: Priorities for Ending Extreme Poverty and Promoting Shared Prosperity: This Systematic Country Diagnostic identifies binding constraints to reducing extreme poverty and promoting shared prosperity in Ethiopia. The report identifies two major challenges to sustainable progress: Ethiopia needs sustainably financed infrastructure that enables private investment to flourish and reduces reliance on public borrowing. It must also strengthen feedback mechanisms that inform policymakers of what works and what does not so that the aspirations of a rapidly rising and better-educated working-age population can be met. https://elibrary.worldbank.org/doi/abs/10.1596/24590 Ethiopia Gender Diagnostic Report: Priorities for Promoting Equity: This report presents evidence on the mechanisms underlying gender gaps in the Ethiopian workforce. It uses data from the 2011–16 Ethiopia socioeconomic surveys and details the constraints faced by female farmers, entrepreneurs, and employees. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/31420 Maintaining the Momentum While Addressing Service Quality and Equity: A Diagnostic of Water Supply, Sanitation, Hygiene, and Poverty in Ethiopia. WASH Poverty Diagnostic: This report presents the findings of the Ethiopia WASH Poverty Diagnostic (EWPD) study led by the World Bank`s Water and Poverty Global Practices. Although in recent years Ethiopia has made good progress in increasing access to water supply, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) services, the quality of many services is below the standards set for meeting the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/30562 Ethiopia Poverty Assessment 2014: This report documents Ethiopia’s successes and examines their drivers. Agricultural growth drove reductions in poverty, bolstered by pro-poor spending on basic services, and effective rural safety nets. However, although there is some evidence of manufacturing growth starting to reduce poverty in urban centers at the end of the decade, structural change has been remarkably absent from Ethiopia s story of progress. The poverty assessment looks ahead, asking what will be needed to end extreme poverty in Ethiopia. In addition to the current successful recipe of agricultural growth and pro-poor spending, the role of the non- farm rural sector, migration, urban poverty reduction, and agricultural productivity gains for women are considered. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/21323 Ethiopia’s Great Run: The Growth Acceleration and how to pace it: This report addresses two questions: Why did Ethiopia’s growth accelerate? And how can it be sustained? The study finds that Ethiopia’s rapid economic Page 19 of 20 The World Bank LSMS-ISA Ethiopia Rural Socioeconomic Survey (P125475) growth, concentrated in agriculture and services, was driven by substantial public infrastructure investment and supported by a conducive external environment. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/693561467988949839/Ethiopia-s-great-run-the-growth- acceleration-and-how-to-pace-it The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia: Selected Issues: This report reviews the evolution of inequality in Ethiopia, puts it in context with other countries in the region, and discusses the role of various macroeconomic policies as well as structural factors. It quantifies the distributional impact of selected growth-enhancing policy measures, including long-standing IMF recommendations. https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2015/cr15326.pdf From UN Agencies The Gender Gap in Agricultural Productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa: Causes, Costs, and Solutions: This policy brief presents gender gaps in agricultural productivity. Data from the World Bank’s were used to calculate productivity gaps and assess how much various factors of production contributed to the total gender productivity gap; agricultural productivity is defined as the gross value of crop output in local currency produced per hectare of land. UN-Women-Policy-brief-11-The-gender-gap-in-agricultural-productivity-in-sub-Saharan-Africa-en.pdf (unwomen.org) National Gender Profile of Agriculture and Rural Livelihoods: The objective of this assessment was to analyze the agricultural and rural development sector of Ethiopia from a gender perspective at the macro (policy) and meso (institutional) levels in order to identify gender inequalities in access to critical productive resources, assets, services, and opportunities. In particular, the assessment identifies needs and constraints of both women and men in selected Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) areas of competence as well as priorities and gaps. Also, it provides recommendations and guidance to ensure that future programming and projects are gender- responsive and to identify possible partners for gender-related activities. https://www.sdgfund.org/publication/fao-ethiopia-national-gender-profile-agriculture-and-rural-livelihoods Ten Years of the Ethiopian Agricultural Transformation Agency: An FAO Evaluation of the Agency’s Impact on Agricultural Growth and Poverty Reduction: This report, conducted by the FAO, is an evaluation of the ATA’s pursuit of agricultural development and transformation in the country. It explores how ATA’s interventions affected smallholder household productivity and commercialization and affected agricultural growth and poverty reduction. https://www.fao.org/3/cb2434en/CB2434EN.pdf Shining a Brighter Light: Comprehensive Evidence on Adoption and Diffusion of CGIAR-related Innovations in Ethiopia: This report by the SPIA/CGIAR evaluated diffusion of agricultural innovation in Ethiopia. https://iaes.cgiar.org//sites/default/files/images/Publications/Ethiopia%20Strategic%20Review%20SPIA%2020 20.pdf Page 20 of 20