The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Indonesia Disaster Risk Finance & Insurance (P173249) Indonesia Disaster Risk Finance & Insurance (P173249) EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC | Indonesia | Finance, Competitiveness and Innovation Global Practice | IBRD/IDA | Investment Project Financing | FY 2021 | Seq No: 7 | ARCHIVED on 21-Dec-2023 | ISR59249 | Implementing Agencies: Ministry of Finance, Indonesia Environment Fund, Republic of Indonesia Key Dates Key Project Dates Bank Approval Date: 21-Jan-2021 Effectiveness Date: 05-Oct-2021 Planned Mid Term Review Date: 05-Jun-2023 Actual Mid-Term Review Date: 05-Jun-2023 Original Closing Date: 29-Mar-2024 Revised Closing Date: 04-Oct-2025 pdoTable Project Development Objectives Project Development Objective (from Project Appraisal Document) The Project Development Objective is to strengthen the financial and fiscal resilience of the Borrower to natural disasters and health-related shocks. Has the Project Development Objective been changed since Board Approval of the Project Objective? No Components Table Name Establishing and operationalizing the PFB:(Cost $280.00 M) Improving Preparedness for More Effective Disaster Response Across Government Agencies:(Cost $220.00 M) Strengthening PFB capacity and systems to effectively support risk financing and disaster response:(Cost $10.00 M) Overall Ratings Name Previous Rating Current Rating Progress towards achievement of PDO Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory Overall Implementation Progress (IP) Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory Overall Risk Rating Substantial Substantial Implementation Status and Key Decisions Substantial implementation progress has been achieved to date, including: (i) appointment of the Steering Committee and the DRFI Coordination Unit (or Project Management Unit) members, which needs to be reappointed on an annual basis to align with the Government of Indonesia's budget cycle; (ii) establishment of the DRFI operational set-up and PFB management structure, involving the role of BKF as executing agency and of BPDLH as implementing agency; (iii) completion of project restructuring on November 13, 2023, which has extended the project closing date by 19 months to October 4, 2025, amended the Performance Based Conditions (PBCs) and updated the results framework to align with the current project operational framework; (iv) more than half of the restructured Performance Based Condition (PBC) sub-results (18 out of 33) have been achieved or are in progress; (v) almost half of the loan amount has been disbursed to date with further disbursements expected in first semester of 2024; and (vi) continuing technical capacity building activities targeted to wide range of government and other project stakeholders to support establishment and operationalization of the PFB, and the broader DRFI agenda. 12/21/2023 Page 1 of 10 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Indonesia Disaster Risk Finance & Insurance (P173249) Risks Systematic Operations Risk-rating Tool Risk Category Rating at Approval Previous Rating Current Rating Political and Governance Moderate Moderate Moderate Macroeconomic Substantial Substantial Substantial Sector Strategies and Policies Moderate Moderate Moderate Technical Design of Project or Program Substantial Substantial Substantial Institutional Capacity for Implementation and Substantial Substantial Substantial Sustainability Fiduciary Substantial Substantial Substantial Environment and Social High High High Stakeholders Moderate Moderate Moderate Other -- -- -- Overall Substantial Substantial Substantial Results PDO Indicators by Objectives / Outcomes Strengthen the financial and fiscal resilience of GoI to natural disasters and health-related shocks IN01380276 ►Pre-arranged resources available for response and recovery to disasters, and climate and health shocks increased (Text, Custom, PBC) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target IDR 7.3 trillion ($500 IDR 4 trillion (2020 IDR 7.3 trillion allocated million DRFI loan Value allocation to reserve 100 % increase for PFB equivalent) allocated fund) for PFB Date 01-Jan-2021 09-Jun-2023 30-Nov-2023 04-Oct-2025 This will measure the total pre-arranged resources for disaster response and recovery, including current Comments: year budget allocation to the PFB, carried over cash in the PFB, budget allocation to the disaster reserve fund (budget line), and total coverage from any financial instrument backstopping the PFB. IN01380277 ►Disbursements made by the pooling fund for low risk (pre-disaster) or high risk (post-disaster) activities, complied with agreed timelines (Text, Custom, PBC) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target 12/21/2023 Page 2 of 10 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Indonesia Disaster Risk Finance & Insurance (P173249) 0 (Pooling fund not 0 (Pooling fund not 0 (Pooling fund not 80% payments made Value established) established) established) on time Date 01-Jan-2021 09-Jun-2023 30-Nov-2023 04-Oct-2025 With the Nov 2023 project restructuring, this indicator has been modified to include “low risk activities” Comments: that would likely be financed before an event. IN01380278 ►Institutional capacity for efficient financing of disaster, climate risk, and health shock related expenditures increased (Text, Custom, PBC) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target A dedicated No pre-arranged mechanism No pre-arranged funding No pre-arranged funding funding mechanism established with at mechanism linked to pre- mechanism linked to pre- Value linked to pre-arranged least 2 programs in arranged disbursement arranged disbursement disbursement place to support programs established programs established programs established disaster preparedness and response Date 01-Jan-2021 09-Jun-2023 30-Nov-2023 04-Oct-2025 With the Nov 2023 project restructuring, the indicator target is modified to lower the programs in place to Comments: be from 4 to 2. Overall Comments PDO The Nov 2023 project restructuring has extended the project implementation period by 19 months and modified the results framework to make the results more relevant to the current context of the project. PDO results indicators remain broadly unchanged, with language made more specific and targets updated to expand financial disbursements to low-risk pre-disaster activities, and lower institutional capacity milestones to more realistic targets. Intermediate Results Indicators by Components Establishing and Capitalizing the Pooling Fund Bencana IN01380279 ►Pooling Fund established and operational (Yes/No, Custom, PBC) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value No No No Yes Date 01-Jan-2021 09-Jun-2023 30-Nov-2023 04-Oct-2025 The required government regulation to establish the pooling fund (PerPres, PMK) has been adopted and key staff appointed. In order to ensure the fund is operational, i) a PMK (currently under preparation) needs to be issued for BDFLH to carry out PFB operations; ii) the ESMS needs to be functional to enable Comments: eligible activities to be financed; and iii) BNPB need to adopt the verification process for PFB proposals and embed the process in BNPB’s regulation. IN01380281 ►Risk financing strategy for pooling fund adopted and updated annually (Text, Custom, PBC) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target 12/21/2023 Page 3 of 10 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Indonesia Disaster Risk Finance & Insurance (P173249) Risk Financing Strategy Risk Financing Risk financing strategy Value No risk financing strategy adopted Strategy adopted adopted Date 01-Jan-2021 09-Jun-2023 30-Nov-2023 04-Oct-2025 The pooling fund has prepared and adopted a risk financing strategy to protect itself against severe Comments: events, and updates this strategy every year as part of the Annual Budget Plan. IN01380284 ►Risk Transfer instrument(s) integrated within the PFB (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target At least 1 risk transfer Value No instrument in place No instrument in place No instrument in place instrument Date 01-Jan-2021 09-Jun-2023 30-Nov-2023 04-Oct-2025 This indicator has been modified with the Nov 2023 project restructuring. The original indicator expected placement of a new product, while the revised indicator reflects a more realistic scenario of integrating a Comments: risk transfer instrument into the PFB. IN01380287 ►Annual audits completed and recommendations implemented (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value No (PFB does not exist) No audit yet to PFB No audit yet to PFB Yes Date 01-Jan-2021 09-Jun-2023 30-Nov-2023 04-Oct-2025 No audit has taken place because the PFB has not been operational. Audit will be undertaken in line with Comments: existing processes. This indicator and target have been modified with the Nov 2023 project restructuring. IN01380289 ►Pooling fund annual reports prepared and published (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.00 Date 01-Jan-2021 09-Jun-2023 30-Nov-2023 04-Oct-2025 With the Nov 2023 project restructuring, the target has been modified from 3 to 2 reports, as the reporting was not done in Year 1. No PFB specific annual report published yet, however, the PFB has Comments: started to be mentioned in the 2022 BPDLH annual report. IN01380291 ►Percentage of management staff appointed in the PFB that are female (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value No staff appointed. 60% 60% 20% Date 01-Jan-2021 09-Jun-2023 30-Nov-2023 04-Oct-2025 This refers to female staff in BLU, i.e. BPDLH. Comments: 12/21/2023 Page 4 of 10 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Indonesia Disaster Risk Finance & Insurance (P173249) Improving Preparedness for More Effective Disaster Response Across Government Agencies IN01380283 ►Pooling Fund establishes agreements with government ministries/agencies to support more effective disaster preparedness and response (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.00 Date 01-Jan-2021 09-Jun-2023 30-Nov-2023 04-Oct-2025 The Nov 2023 project restructuring reduces the target from 3 to 2 ministries/agencies. Comments: IN01380286 ►Pooling fund develops draft rules for co-financing from subnational governments (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value No No No Yes Date 01-Jan-2021 09-Jun-2023 30-Nov-2023 04-Oct-2025 The Nov 2023 project restructuring modified this indicator, to align with the modified PBC wording. Comments: Strengthen pooling fund capacity and systems to effectively support risk financing and disaster resp IN01380280 ►SIMAN database linked to the Pooling Fund for state assets (Yes/No, Custom, PBC) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value No No No Yes Date 01-Jan-2021 09-Jun-2023 30-Nov-2023 04-Oct-2025 The Nov 2023 project restructuring modified this indicator to alight with the modified PBC wording. Comments: IN01380282 ►SIMAN database upgraded with insurance modules and characteristics to enable risk modeling activities related to state assets (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value No No No Yes Date 01-Jan-2021 09-Jun-2023 30-Nov-2023 04-Oct-2025 The Nov 2023 project restructuring modified this indicator to align with the modified PBC wording. Comments: IN01380288 ►PFB has necessary financial and human resources in place as required by the ESMS (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value No No No Yes 12/21/2023 Page 5 of 10 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Indonesia Disaster Risk Finance & Insurance (P173249) Date 01-Jan-2021 09-Jun-2023 30-Nov-2023 04-Oct-2025 The Nov 2023 project restructuring modified this indicator wording to make the language clearer. Comments: IN01380290 ►Staff in ministries eligible to access funding from the PFB demonstrate increased capacity in making informed decisions on risk financing (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Staff in at least 2 No ministries have No ministries have No ministries have ministries have been Value received training from the received training from the received training from trained by the PFB and PFB PFB the PFB show increased understanding of DRFI Date 01-Jan-2021 09-Jun-2023 30-Nov-2023 04-Oct-2025 The Nov 2023 project restructuring modified this indicator target from 3 to 2 ministries. Comments: IN01380292 ►Evaluations and/or Beneficiary Surveys are carried out to enhance quality of design and implementation of the PFB over the lifetime of the project (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 Date 01-Jan-2021 09-Jun-2023 30-Nov-2023 04-Oct-2025 The Nov 2023 project restructuring modified this indicator target from 3 to 1, in order to be more realistic considering limited capacity and time. The task team has hired a consultant to design the scope and Comments: conduct an evaluation of this operation, with a first draft report expected to be ready by June 20, 2024 and the evaluation completed by end 2024. Overall Comments IR The Nov 2023 project restructuring has modified the intermediate results to ensure that they are aligned with the changes made to the PBCs. Specific changes to the results framework include: i) modifying language of result to reflect the current project context and align with changes made to the PBCs; ii) revising targets-based project progress; and iii) dropping one result (appointment of a broker or intermediary for PFB placement of a risk transfer product) as deemed no longer relevant to the PDO. The next PBCs Table does not yet reflect the project restructuring that has extended the project closing to Oct 2025, which in effect provides another year for PBC achievement (Year 5). The task team is consulting with the OPCS Help Desk to rectify this matter. Performance-Based Conditions IN01380293 ►PBC 1 Pooling Fund established and operational (Yes/No, Intermediate Outcome, 80,000,000.00, 0.00%) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) year 3 Value No No No -- 12/21/2023 Page 6 of 10 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Indonesia Disaster Risk Finance & Insurance (P173249) Date -- 09-Jun-2023 30-Nov-2023 -- IN01380294 ►PBC 2 Pre-arranged resources available for response and recovery to disasters, and climate and health shocks increased (Text, Outcome, 80,000,000.00, 100.00%) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) year 3 IDR 4 trillion (2020 IDR 7.3 trillion allocated IDR 7.3 trillion allocated Value -- allocation to reserve fund) for PFB for PFB Date -- 09-Jun-2023 30-Nov-2023 -- IN01380295 ►PBC 3 Risk financing strategy for pooling fund adopted and updated annually (Text, Intermediate Outcome, 70,000,000.00, 0.00%) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) year 3 Risk Financing Strategy Risk Financing Strategy Value No risk financing strategy -- adopted. adopted Date -- 09-Jun-2023 30-Nov-2023 -- IN01380296 ►PBC 4 SIMAN database linked to the Pooling Fund for state assets (Yes/No, Intermediate Outcome, 50,000,000.00, 50.00%) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) year 3 Value No No No -- Date -- 09-Jun-2023 30-Nov-2023 -- IN01380297 ►PBC 5 Institutional capacity for efficient financing of disaster, climate risk, and health shock related expenditures increased (Text, Intermediate Outcome, 60,000,000.00, 66.67%) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) year 3 No pre-arranged funding No pre-arranged funding No pre-arranged funding mechanism linked to pre- mechanism linked to pre- mechanism linked to pre- Value -- arranged disbursement arranged disbursement arranged disbursement programs established programs established programs established Date -- 09-Jun-2023 30-Nov-2023 -- 12/21/2023 Page 7 of 10 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Indonesia Disaster Risk Finance & Insurance (P173249) IN01380298 ►PBC 6 Support the central government disaster preparedness and early action (Text, Intermediate Outcome, 40,000,000.00, 0.00%) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) year 3 In the first 12-month period following the adoption of the program (referred to PFB is established but PFB is established but not in PBC6 - Year 2), Value PFB Not established. not yet operationalized yet operationalized MOF, through the BLU, has approved and disbursed 80% of payments on time as set out in the adopted program Date -- 30-Sep-2022 30-Sep-2022 -- IN01380299 ►PBC 7 Disbursements made by the pooling fund for low risk (pre-disaster) or high risk (post-disaster) activities, complied with agreed timelines (Text, Intermediate Outcome, 40,000,000.00, 0.00%) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) year 3 0 (Pooling fund not 0 (PFB is established but 0 (Pooling fund not Value -- established) not yet operationalized) established) Date -- 09-Jun-2023 30-Nov-2023 -- IN01380300 ►PBC 8 Disbursements made by the pooling fund for low risk (pre-disaster) or high risk (post-disaster) activities, complied with agreed timelines (Text, Outcome, 40,000,000.00, 0.00%) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) year 3 0 (Pooling fund not 0 (PFB is established but 0 (Pooling fund not Value -- established) not yet operationalized) established) Date -- 09-Jun-2023 30-Nov-2023 -- IN01380301 ►PBC 9 Disbursements made by the pooling fund for low risk (pre-disaster) or high risk (post-disaster) activities, complied with agreed timelines (Text, Intermediate Outcome, 40,000,000.00, 0.00%) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) year 3 0 (Pooling fund not 0 (PFB is established but 0 (Pooling fund not Value -- established) not yet operationalized) established) 12/21/2023 Page 8 of 10 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Indonesia Disaster Risk Finance & Insurance (P173249) Date -- 09-Jun-2023 30-Nov-2023 -- Data on Financial Performance Disbursements (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Currency Original Revised Cancelled Disbursed Undisbursed % Disbursed P173249 IBRD-91970 Effective USD 500.00 500.00 0.00 240.00 260.00 48% P173249 TF-B4675 Effective USD 10.00 10.00 0.00 1.47 8.53 15% Key Dates (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Approval Date Signing Date Effectiveness Date Orig. Closing Date Rev. Closing Date P173249 IBRD-91970 Effective 21-Jan-2021 17-Mar-2021 05-Oct-2021 29-Mar-2024 04-Oct-2025 P173249 TF-B4675 Effective 18-Dec-2020 17-Mar-2021 05-Oct-2021 29-Mar-2024 04-Oct-2025 Cumulative Disbursements 12/21/2023 Page 9 of 10 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Indonesia Disaster Risk Finance & Insurance (P173249) Restructuring History Level 2 Approved on 31-Jan-2023 ,Level 2 Approved on 30-Oct-2023 Related Project(s) There are no related projects. 12/21/2023 Page 10 of 10