The World Bank                                                                                       Implementation Status & Results Report
         Modernizing the National Statistical System in Tajikistan (P173977)



Modernizing the National Statistical System in Tajikistan (P173977)


 EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA | Tajikistan | Poverty and Equity Global Practice |
 IBRD/IDA | Investment Project Financing | FY 2021 | Seq No: 5 | ARCHIVED on 20-Dec-2023 | ISR58515 |


 Implementing Agencies: Agency for Statistics under the President of the Republic of Tajikistan, Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Tajikistan



 Key Dates


  Key Project Dates

   Bank Approval Date: 28-May-2021                                             Effectiveness Date: 18-Nov-2021
   Planned Mid Term Review Date: 29-Mar-2024                                   Actual Mid-Term Review Date: 27-Oct-2023
   Original Closing Date: 30-Nov-2026                                          Revised Closing Date: 30-Nov-2026
 pdoTable

 Project Development Objectives

  Project Development Objective (from Project Appraisal Document)
  The PDO is to enable the Agency for Statistics to modernize statistical production, dissemination, and improve user engagement.

  Has the Project Development Objective been changed since Board Approval of the Project Objective?
  No


 Components Table

 Name
 Strengthening the Institutional Capacity of AS and Improving ICT Infrastructure:(Cost $4.16 M)
 Enhancing the system of statistical production, dissemination and data use:(Cost $5.34 M)
 Project Management:(Cost $0.50 M)

 Overall Ratings

 Name                                                                        Previous Rating                          Current Rating

 Progress towards achievement of PDO                                         Satisfactory                            Moderately Satisfactory
 Overall Implementation Progress (IP)                                        Moderately Satisfactory                 Moderately Satisfactory
 Overall Risk Rating                                                         Low                                     Moderate


 Implementation Status and Key Decisions

  The Mid-Term Review (MTR) mission assessed the implementation of the Project activities and results achieved within the Project period from
  November 2021 to mid-October 2023 in terms of the main evaluation criteria, namely: a) relevance and rationale of the project; b) quality of design;
  c) efficiency; d) effectiveness; e) project management; f) Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E); g) sustainability and overall risks.
  The evaluation was done based on: (i) desk review of relevant project documentation, including progress reports of the Project Implementation
  Group (PIG), Twinning Partnership (TP) consulting firm’s reports, as well as the World Bank’s mission reports; (ii) meetings with the National Bank
  of Tajikistan and Ministry of Finance as key statistical data providers and users; (iii) meetings with Khatlon Province Statistical Regional
  Department, local sub-national governments (Jamoats) in Bokhtar and Kushoniyon rayons, arranged during the field mission to Khatlon Province;
  (iv) on-line Zoom meeting with Asian Development Bank experts as one of the key donor partners providing support to Agency on Statistics (AS) in
  strengthening its institutional capacity; (v) meetings with TP experts, «Spitamen IT», “Gustarish”, and “FG-Group” companies; (v) direct on-site
  observations of some project activities during the field visit.



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            The World Bank                                                                                       Implementation Status & Results Report
            Modernizing the National Statistical System in Tajikistan (P173977)



  The project’s progress towards achieving the project development objective (PDO) as well as its implementation progress are assessed to be
  Moderately Satisfactory due to slow progress on two independent PDO-level indicators and slower-than-expected progress with some of the
  activities. The MTR found that overall progress made towards Intermediate Results is good and the targets for all indicators under the Project
  Outputs have a high likelihood of being achieved by Project end. However, the Bank task team has concerns over the achievement of the PDO,
  particularly the two PDO-level indicators of (i) Statistical Performance Index and (ii) Open Data Inventory Index.




  Risks


 Systematic Operations Risk-rating Tool


  Risk Category                                                Rating at Approval             Previous Rating                Current Rating

  Political and Governance                                     Moderate                      Moderate                      Moderate
  Macroeconomic                                                Substantial                   Substantial                   Moderate
  Sector Strategies and Policies                               Low                           Low                           Low
  Technical Design of Project or Program                       Low                           Low                           Low
  Institutional Capacity for Implementation and
                                                               Moderate                      Moderate                      Moderate
  Sustainability
  Fiduciary                                                    Moderate                      Moderate                      Moderate
  Environment and Social                                       Moderate                      Moderate                      Moderate
  Stakeholders                                                 Low                           Low                           Low
  Other                                                        Moderate                      --                             --
  Overall                                                      Moderate                      Low                           Moderate



  Results


 PDO Indicators by Objectives / Outcomes



   To enable AS to modernize statistical production, dissemination, and improve user engagement

    IN01360977
    ►Statistical Performance Index (Number, Custom)

                                         Baseline                     Actual (Previous)            Actual (Current)          End Target

    Value                               55.76                         55.76                        55.76                     70.00

    Date                                31-Dec-2021                   31-Mar-2023                  27-Oct-2023              30-Nov-2026
                                         The Statistical Performance Index (SPI) overall score is a composite score measuring country
                                         performance across five pillars: data use, data services, data products, data sources, and data
   Comments:                             infrastructure. The new Statistical Performance Indicators (SPI) replaces the Statistical Capacity Index
                                         (SCI), which the World Bank has regularly published since 2004. Although the goals are the same, to offer
                                         a better tool to measure the statistical systems of countries, the new SPI framework has expanded into


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           Modernizing the National Statistical System in Tajikistan (P173977)



                                        new areas including in the areas of data use, administrative data, geospatial data, data services, and data
                                        infrastructure. The SPI provides a framework that can help countries measure where they stand in several
                                        dimensions and offers an ambitious measurement agenda for the international community.

    IN01360978
    ►Open Data Inventory Index (ODIN) (Number, Custom)

                                        Baseline                     Actual (Previous)             Actual (Current)           End Target

    Value                              41.00                         42.00                         42.00                      60.00

    Date                               01-Dec-2020                   31-Mar-2023                   27-Oct-2023                31-Dec-2024
                                        The Open Data Inventory (ODIN) measures how complete a country’s statistical offerings are and whether
                                        their data meet international standards of openness. Data assessed in ODIN must be official country data
                                        that are published on the national statistics office’s (NSO) website or any other official country website that
                                        is linked from the NSO website. Coverage scores are based on the availability of key indicators and
   Comments:
                                        appropriate disaggregations over time and for geographic subdivisions. Openness scores are based on
                                        whether data can be downloaded in machine-readable and non-proprietary formats, are accompanied by
                                        metadata and whether download options exist such as bulk download and user-selection or APIs, and
                                        have an open terms of use or data license.
   IN01360979
   ►Results of the web-based semi-annual user satisfaction surveys have been (i) publicly disseminated and (ii) discussed at the Inter-Agency
   Statistical Council's semi-annual consultations (Text, Custom)

                                        Baseline                     Actual (Previous)             Actual (Current)           End Target
                                                                                                                              Increase by at least
    Value                              51.7%                         68%                           72%                        20% over the baseline
                                                                                                                              value
    Date                               31-Dec-2021                   31-Mar-2023                   27-Oct-2023                31-Dec-2025

                                        This indicator measures citizen engagement and ensures that a two-way channel of feedback and
   Comments:
                                        response is established through publication and council action.


 Intermediate Results Indicators by Components



   Strengthening the Institutional Capacity of AS and Improving ICT Infrastructure

    IN01360980
    ►Update of the Law on State Statistics, introduction of new Institutional Set-up and improved HR management system (Text, Custom)

                                        Baseline                     Actual (Previous)             Actual (Current)           End Target
                                                                     The first draft of the Law
                                                                                                   The draft Law remains
                                                                     of the Republic of
                                                                                                   to be adjusted in line
                                                                     Tajikistan "On                                           Updated Law on State
                                                                                                   with the UNECE
                                                                     Amendments and                                           Statistics is passed by
                                                                                                   Generic Law on
                                                                     Additions to the Law of                                  the Parliament, new
                                                                                                   Official Statistics for
                                       Outdated Law on State         the Republic of Tajikistan                               Institutional Set-up is
                                                                                                   countries of Eastern
                                       Statistics, Institutional     "On State Statistics" was                                approved by the
                                                                                                   Europe, Caucasus and
                                       Set-up, outdated and          prepared by the Twinning                                 President’s decree,
    Value                                                                                          Central Asia. The MTR
                                       inefficient HR                Partner.                                                 modern HRMIS
                                                                                                   mission revealed that
                                       management and HR             By order of the AS, a                                    system is introduced,
                                                                                                   the Draft Law has not
                                       policies                      working group was                                        training and retraining
                                                                                                   addressed some
                                                                     created, the law was                                     plans are developed
                                                                                                   important
                                                                     considered, the                                          and being
                                                                                                   recommendations
                                                                     preliminary version was                                  implemented
                                                                                                   provided by UNSD.
                                                                     sent for consultation with
                                                                     UNSD.

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           Modernizing the National Statistical System in Tajikistan (P173977)



                                                                                                 The activities on
                                                                                                 streamlining of the
                                                                                                 organizational
                                                                                                 structure of the AS
                                                                                                 have not yet started.

                                                                                                 A new HRMIS system,
                                                                                                 which has elements of
                                                                                                 filing staff records and
                                                                                                 time-recording to
                                                                                                 manage staff’s work-
                                                                                                 related tasks, was
                                                                                                 developed and
                                                                                                 introduced on a pilot
                                                                                                 basis and was
                                                                                                 installed only in the
                                                                                                 Central Office. The
                                                                                                 software has been
                                                                                                 developed without
                                                                                                 considering changes
                                                                                                 envisaged further in
                                                                                                 the AS organizational
                                                                                                 structure. Trainings of
                                                                                                 managers and a
                                                                                                 training plan is
                                                                                                 needed.



    Date                               01-Jan-2021                  31-Mar-2023                  27-Oct-2023                29-Dec-2023
                                        This indicator will help monitor progress on the approval of an Updated Statistics Law by the Parliament,
   Comments:                            Endorsement of a new Institutional Set-up and introduction of an improved HR management system

    IN01360983
    ►Shifting from paper-based household books to electronic ones in all jamoats (Text, Custom)

                                        Baseline                    Actual (Previous)            Actual (Current)           End Target
                                                                                                 100% of rural jamoats
                                                                                                 are using a web-based
                                                                                                 system digital entry
                                                                                                 system that was
                                                                    All jamoats use electronic   developed by TajStat
                                                                    household books, 100%        that provides
                                                                                                                            All jamoats use
                                                                    of information on the        electronic collection of
                                                                                                                            electronic household
                                                                    population is entered into   household-book data
                                                                                                                            books. The national
                                                                    electronic household         for rural settlements.
                                       31 jamoats (7.2% of all)                                                             and regional
                                                                    books.                       Collected data is
    Value                              use electronic household                                                             databases are created
                                                                    The national and regional    directly stored on
                                       books                                                                                automatically upon
                                                                    databases are created        servers at the AS HQ,
                                                                                                                            data entry at the AS
                                                                    automatically upon data      as it gets entered at
                                                                                                                            server at 70% of
                                                                    entry at the AS server at    the rayon and
                                                                                                                            jamoats.
                                                                    100% of jamoats.             administrative levels
                                                                                                 below. Percent of
                                                                                                 Jamoats use e-
                                                                                                 collection is
                                                                                                 unavailable.


    Date                               18-Feb-2021                  31-Mar-2023                  27-Oct-2023                31-Dec-2025

                                        This indicator will help monitor progress on the transition from paper-based household books to electronic
   Comments:
                                        ones in all jamoats (sub-district level of the government) of the country


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           The World Bank                                                                                       Implementation Status & Results Report
           Modernizing the National Statistical System in Tajikistan (P173977)



    IN01360985
    ►Increased traffic and data usage/download from AS official website (Text, Custom)

                                        Baseline                    Actual (Previous)             Actual (Current)            End Target
                                                                    Terms of reference were
                                                                    prepared for the
                                                                    development of new
                                                                    software tools for the
                                                                    website/portal and for
                                                                    data visualization,
                                                                    including GIS, including
                                                                    the relationship of the
                                                                    site/portal with electronic
                                                                    reporting and its
                                                                    implementation,
                                                                    contributing to the
                                                                    creation of a foundation
                                                                    for an integrated
                                                                                                  A new website
                                                                    connection to a single                                    Increased the number
                                       AS website having                                          platform was created,
                                                                    system of ministries and                                  of downloads by 50%.
                                       minimal features for:                                      and its architecture
                                                                    departments .                                             At least 5 government
                                       ‘Open Data’ access; data                                   was designed. The
    Value                                                                                                                     agencies uploaded
                                       download; and                                              filling in the content of
                                                                    The merger of the                                         administrative and
                                       underlying data                                            the pages of a website
                                                                    databases of the                                          other datasets to the
                                       warehouse                                                  has not yet started.
                                                                    ministries on the AS                                      AS servers
                                                                    servers will be after the
                                                                    implementation of the
                                                                    data processing center.
                                                                    At present, the terms of
                                                                    reference "Designing a
                                                                    network infrastructure for
                                                                    data processing, storage,
                                                                    security, etc. in
                                                                    modernized data
                                                                    processing and backup
                                                                    centers" have been
                                                                    prepared.



    Date                               01-Jan-2021                  31-Mar-2023                   27-Oct-2023                 28-Jun-2024
                                        This indicator will help monitor the extent to which the AS website has improved and become user-friendly
   Comments:                            and allows for easy accessing of data at various data-bases on the AS website. Specifically, the indicator
                                        will measure the volume of downloads as well as uploads of data to AS servers.
    IN01360987
    ►Gender disparity in staff count by gender at AS: top level female managers at the oblast and rayon level (Percentage) (Text, Custom)

                                        Baseline                    Actual (Previous)             Actual (Current)            End Target
                                                                    Currently, 41.1 percent of    The share of female in
                                       Currently 37.4 % of AS
                                                                    AS employees are              total AS staff (incl.       At least 10 percentage
                                       staff are female and
    Value                                                           women, and 26.8 percent       MCC) slightly               point increase from the
                                       25.6% of management
                                                                    of management staff are       increased to 41.7% by       baseline
                                       staff are female
                                                                    women (civil servants).       October’2023.
    Date                               05-Apr-2021                  31-Mar-2023                   27-Oct-2023                 30-Sep-2026

   Comments:                            This indicator will measure the number of female managers at regional and district offices of AS

    IN01360989
    ►Data managed by AS has sufficient data privacy and security (physical and electronic) measures (Text, Custom)


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           The World Bank                                                                                    Implementation Status & Results Report
           Modernizing the National Statistical System in Tajikistan (P173977)




                                        Baseline                    Actual (Previous)          Actual (Current)            End Target
                                                                                               The hardware and
                                                                                               software purchased for
                                                                                               the Data Centers
                                                                                               (including LAN &
                                                                                               WAN), has safeguards
                                                                                               in the form of firewalls
                                                                                               and other malicious
                                                                                               intrusion detection
                                                                                               appliances that
                                                                                               prevent intrusion,
                                                                                               cyber-attacks and
                                                                                               thereby may cause
                                                                                               unauthorized access
                                                                    A company report was
                                                                                               to the network and the
                                                                    received on the work                                   AS has HW and SW
                                                                                               data. These measures
                                                                    done on the issue of                                   for secure storage and
                                                                                               would also protect the
                                                                    "Designing and                                         subsequent archiving
                                                                                               network from ‘denial of
                                                                    implementing a network                                 of surveys. Data
                                       Limited capacity to                                     service’ type of cyber-
                                                                    infrastructure for data                                having sensitive
    Value                              provide protection of                                   attacks that can cripple
                                                                    processing, storage,                                   personal and private
                                       primary data                                            and bring down the
                                                                    security, etc. in                                      data – both individuals
                                                                                               network and the
                                                                    modernized data                                        and enterprises, are
                                                                                               databases for
                                                                    processing and backup                                  programmatically
                                                                                               extended periods. As
                                                                    centers." Work in this                                 anonymized
                                                                                               secure transmission of
                                                                    direction is ongoing
                                                                                               data is concerned,
                                                                                               either while collecting
                                                                                               jamoat household
                                                                                               books data, or while
                                                                                               using e-Reporting for
                                                                                               collecting data, or
                                                                                               while getting data from
                                                                                               MDAs, the VPN
                                                                                               (Virtual Private
                                                                                               Network) software in
                                                                                               place provides a
                                                                                               secure channel for
                                                                                               data in transit.
    Date                               23-Feb-2021                  31-Mar-2023                27-Oct-2023                 28-Jun-2024

   Comments:                            This indicator will measure data privacy and security measures maintained by AS.



   Enhancing the system of statistical production, dissemination and data use

    IN01360981
    ►Compilation and dissemination of national accounts using the concepts and definitions of 2008 SNA standard (Text, Custom)

                                        Baseline                    Actual (Previous)          Actual (Current)            End Target
                                                                    The SNA expert will        An action plan has
                                                                                                                           The general
                                                                    conduct an on-the-job      been drawn up for the
                                                                                                                           framework, concepts
                                       National accounts            training from 17 to 21     SNA 2008 transition
                                                                                                                           and definitions follows
                                       compilation is in            April 2023. Training       project. Twinning
                                                                                                                           2008 SNA standards
                                       transition from using        program and list of        partner provided
                                                                                                                           with Economic
    Value                              1993 SNA to 2008 SNA         participants agreed.       recommendations to
                                                                                                                           statistics being
                                       with Economic statistics     A company has been         improve current
                                                                                                                           compiled in discrete
                                       being compiled in            hired to calculate gross   methodologies and
                                                                                                                           periods and SNA
                                       cumulative periods           fixed capital formation    comply with the 2008
                                                                                                                           meeting at least level 4
                                                                    under the 2008 SNA and     SNA standards, to
                                                                                                                           of SNA 2008 standard
                                                                    preparations are           improve the quality of


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           Modernizing the National Statistical System in Tajikistan (P173977)



                                                                    underway to conduct a         annual SNA
                                                                    survey on the stock and       calculations, and
                                                                    movement of fixed assets      prepare the input-
                                                                    in the private sector and     output table.
                                                                    tourism.


    Date                               15-Feb-2021                  31-Mar-2023                   27-Oct-2023              31-Dec-2025

   Comments:                            This indicator will help measure progress towards full transition to 2008 SNA standards

    IN01360984
    ►Submission of regular mandatory reports by external entities electronically (Text, Custom)

                                        Baseline                    Actual (Previous)             Actual (Current)          End Target
                                                                    64 reporting forms, 1
                                                                    form for dehkan farmers,
                                                                    12 HBS modules and 22
                                                                    reporting forms,
                                                                    administrative statistics
                                                                    or 34%, adopted
                                                                    electronically (by the end
                                                                    of 2022).
                                                                                                  An IT software
                                       35 reporting forms, 1        Testing is being carried      consulting firm has
                                       form for dekhkan farmers     out to switch to an           prepared 157 reporting   80 % of mandatory
                                       and 12 modules of HBS        electronic format for         forms (including         reports are submitted
    Value
                                       or 20,2% admitted            obtaining information on      instructions for         via an e-reporting
                                       electronically (at the end   population migration and      completion) out of the   system
                                       of 2020)                     vital statistics - civil      223 forms (including
                                                                    status (births, deaths,       management reports).
                                                                    marriages and divorces.

                                                                    For a full transition to
                                                                    electronic reporting, a
                                                                    tender was held and an
                                                                    assessment is underway
                                                                    for hiring a company


    Date                               31-Dec-2020                  31-Mar-2023                   27-Oct-2023              31-Dec-2024

   Comments:                            This indicator will measure the share of reports submitted electronically

    IN01360986
    ►Number of anonymized survey micro-datasets available online (Text, Custom)

                                        Baseline                    Actual (Previous)             Actual (Current)          End Target
                                                                    0 – number of survey
                                                                    micro-datasets available
                                                                    online. Additionally,         No progress under this
                                                                                                                           Number of survey
                                                                    preparations have begun       indicator has been
                                       0 – number of survey                                                                micro-datasets
                                                                    for surveys on persons        observed and no
    Value                              micro-datasets available                                                            available online is
                                                                    with disabilities, tourism    survey micro-data are
                                       online                                                                              increased by 50% from
                                                                    and fixed assets. After       available online
                                                                                                                           baseline value
                                                                    completion of surveys will    through AS website.
                                                                    be included in the NADA
                                                                    system.
    Date                               21-Feb-2022                  31-Mar-2023                   27-Oct-2023              28-Aug-2026




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           Modernizing the National Statistical System in Tajikistan (P173977)




   Comments:                            This indicator will measure progress on availability of micro-datasets from household and firm surveys.

    IN01360988
    ►Number of UNSD Minimum List gender indicators available using data collected within the past 5 years (Text, Custom)

                                        Baseline                    Actual (Previous)             Actual (Current)           End Target
                                                                                                  While AS reports that
                                                                                                  the number of gender
                                                                                                  indicators has
                                                                                                  increased from 23 in
                                                                    47 indicators are             2021 to 47 in 2023, the
                                                                    available, taking into        MTR was not able to
                                                                                                                             At least 50%
                                                                    account the surveys           verify this number,
    Value                              23.00                                                                                 improvement over the
                                                                    (78%). However, these         since AS website is
                                                                                                                             baseline value
                                                                    are not readily available     largely missing this
                                                                    on the AS website.            information. It is
                                                                                                  important that this
                                                                                                  information becomes
                                                                                                  available online for all
                                                                                                  users.
    Date                               12-Feb-2021                  31-Mar-2023                   27-Oct-2023                31-Dec-2024

                                        The indicator will measure the volume of gender indicators available that meet the UNSD minimum list of
   Comments:
                                        gender indicators


   Project Management

    IN01360982
    ►Efficient internal and external stakeholder communication and coordination regarding the project is maintained (Number, Custom)

                                        Baseline                    Actual (Previous)             Actual (Current)           End Target

    Value                              0.00                         6.00                          7.00                       10.00

    Date                               01-Jan-2021                  31-Mar-2023                   27-Oct-2023                31-Dec-2024
                                        This indicator will measure the cumulative number of stakeholder meetings/workshops held on this
                                        project.
                                        The project had its official launch in December 2021, where governmental and non-governmental
                                        stakeholders were invited for project presentation. To enhance coordination among development partners
                                        and the AS, a working group on data and statistics was established under the umbrella of the
                                        Development Coordination Council (DCC). This approach was intended to ensure sufficient awareness of
   Comments:                            the project among development partners, contributing to the sustainability of results.
                                        In the context of user-engagement, AS has established a modern ‘Call Center’ to provide end-users a
                                        single point of contact to answer their AS’ data-related questions. The software for the Call Center and the
                                        underlying IP (Internet Protocol) Telephony infrastructure was installed at AS. It is important that the Call
                                        Center functions effectively and that IP telephony usage benefits are conveyed to the staff so staff uses it
                                        more actively. Call Center could also be programmed to design and implement phone-based surveys.



 Performance-Based Conditions



 Data on Financial Performance


 Disbursements (by loan)


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           Modernizing the National Statistical System in Tajikistan (P173977)




 Project       Loan/Credit/TF      Status      Currency        Original   Revised     Cancelled     Disbursed     Undisbursed                % Disbursed


 P173977       IDA-D8360           Effective   USD               10.00      10.00           0.00         5.89             3.37                      64%


 Key Dates (by loan)

 Project        Loan/Credit/TF     Status      Approval Date       Signing Date     Effectiveness Date    Orig. Closing Date      Rev. Closing Date

 P173977        IDA-D8360          Effective   28-May-2021         25-Jun-2021      18-Nov-2021           30-Nov-2026             30-Nov-2026


Cumulative Disbursements




  Restructuring History


  There has been no restructuring to date.


  Related Project(s)


 There are no related projects.




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