Report No: DLV0563898 © 2023 The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. Attribution—Please cite the work as follows: “World Bank. 2023. Transforming the Nigerien Agri -Food System. © World Bank.� All queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. ii Table of Contents List of Tables ......................................................................................................................... v List of Figures ........................................................................................................................ v Acronyms and Abbreviations ................................................................................................ vi Acknowledgments ...............................................................................................................viii Executive Summary .............................................................................................................. ix Chapter 1: Country Context ................................................................................................... 1 1.1. Objectives and approach ............................................................................................................. 1 1.2. Macroeconomic context .............................................................................................................. 1 1.3. Major challenges and recent developments ............................................................................... 2 1.3.1. Population growth ................................................................................................................ 2 1.3.2. Climate change...................................................................................................................... 3 1.3.3. Conflict and fragility .............................................................................................................. 4 1.3.4. Poverty prevalence ............................................................................................................... 5 1.3.5. Food and nutrition insecurity................................................................................................ 5 Chapter 2: The Agriculture Sector as a Key Driver of Economic Development ......................... 8 2.1. An overview of the Nigerien agriculture sector .......................................................................... 8 2.2. Main productions and farming systems ...................................................................................... 9 2.2.1. Crop production .................................................................................................................. 10 2.2.2. Livestock production ........................................................................................................... 11 2.3. Niger’s natural resource base for agriculture production ........................................................ 12 2.4. Addressing the key sectoral challenges ..................................................................................... 15 2.4.1. Creating inclusive employment for the growing population .............................................. 15 2.4.2. Building resilience and adaptation to climate change ........................................................ 16 2.4.3. Managing shocks and conflicts to foster agricultural production ...................................... 18 Chapter 3: The Government’s Agriculture Development Strategy ......................................... 22 3.1. The 3N Initiative ......................................................................................................................... 22 3.2. GoN’ initiatives to build a climate-resilient and low-carbon agriculture ................................. 23 3.3. Agricultural public expenditures................................................................................................ 25 Chapter 4: What Does it Take to Transform the Agri-food System? ................................... 27 4.1. Need for a comprehensive but targeted strategy ..................................................................... 27 4.2. Sustaining strong productivity increases ................................................................................... 29 4.2.1. Strengthening agricultural research ................................................................................... 29 4.2.2. Strengthening agricultural extension.................................................................................. 30 4.2.3. Strengthening value chains and producer organizations ................................................... 31 4.2.4. Investing in irrigation development .................................................................................... 32 4.2.5. Improving access to agricultural inputs .............................................................................. 34 4.3. Expanding the domestic market ................................................................................................ 37 iii 4.3.1. Transport infrastructure ..................................................................................................... 38 4.3.2. Marketing infrastructure..................................................................................................... 39 4.3.3. Access to information and the use of ICT ........................................................................... 40 4.3.4. Sanitary or phytosanitary and quality standards ................................................................ 40 4.4. Expanding agro-processing and exports......................................................................................... 41 Chapter 5: Conclusions and Way Forward ............................................................................ 44 5.1. Sustaining productivity increases and building resilience ........................................................ 45 5.2. Creating inclusive employment and market opportunities ...................................................... 46 5.3. Enhancing the quality of agriculture public expenditures ........................................................ 46 References and Bibliography ............................................................................................... 48 iv List of Tables Table 1. Cereal Supply and demand balance for the 2022/23 marketing year (Nov/Oct) ........................... 7 Table 2. Transport infrastructure in Niger .................................................................................................. 38 List of Figures Figure 1. Niger’s annual GDP growth (2011–22) .......................................................................................... 2 Figure 2. Projected mean temperature (°C) in Niger (Ref. period 1995–2014) ............................................ 3 Figure 3. Natural hazard statistics, 1980–2020 ............................................................................................ 4 Figure 4. Regional poverty prevalence ......................................................................................................... 5 Figure 5. Sources of total calorie intake ...................................................................................................... 6 Figure 6. Annual agriculture, forestry, and fishing growth (%) Source: World Bank Data 2021. ................ 8 Figure 7. Average cereal yields for Niger, neighboring countries and ub-Saharan Africa 2021. ................ 9 Figure 8. Farming systems in Niger ............................................................................................................. 10 Figure 9. Average yield of selected crops in Niger (2000–21) .................................................................... 11 Figure 10. Development of livestock numbers, 1995 –2020 ...................................................................... 12 Figure 11. Land use in Niger ........................................................................................................................ 13 Figure 12. Niger’s major agro-ecological zones .......................................................................................... 13 Figure 13. Depth of shallow aquifers .......................................................................................................... 14 Figure 14. Aerial view of the Great Green Wall in Niger ............................................................................ 24 Figure 15. Budgetary allocations to the SANAD sector, 2014–20............................................................... 26 Figure 16. Attractiveness and desirability of agricultural value chains in Niger ......................................... 28 Figure 17. Mobile telephone access in 2020 (% of population)................................................................. 40 Figure 18. Agropole priorities across regions ............................................................................................ 42 v Acronyms and Abbreviations AFOLU Agriculture, forestry, and other land use AHas Public irrigation perimeters [Aménagements Hydro-Agricoles] APCA Advisory Services Promotion Agency AVCN National Agency for Verification and Compliance with Standards [Agence Nationale de Vérification et de Conformité aux Normes] BAGRI Agricultural Bank of Niger [Banque Agricole du Niger] BRMN Restructuring and Upgrading Office [Bureau de Restructuration et de Mise à Niveau] CAADP Comprehensive African Agricultural Development Program CAIMA Central Supply of Agricultural Inputs and Materials CAPAN Collective of Pastoral Associations of Niger CFAF African Financial Community franc [Communauté Financière Africaine franc] DRM Disaster risk management DRR Disaster risk reduction ECOWAS Economic Community of West African States FCFA Franc of the Financial Community of Africa [Franc de la Communauté Financière d’Afrique] FDIF Financial Inclusion Development Fund FISAN Food and Nutritional Security Investment Fund [Fonds d’Investissement pour la Sécurité Alimentaire et Nutritionnelle] FMNR Farmer-managed natural regeneration FSCPP Food Security Crisis Preparedness Plan GAP Good agricultural practices GCF Green Climate Fund GDP Gross domestic product GEF Global Environment Facility GMP Good manufacturing practices GoN Government of Niger HDI Human Development Index ICT Information and communication technology IMPACT International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade LASDEL Laboratory for Study and Research on Social Dynamics and Local Development vi MAGEL Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock MFI Microfinance institution NDC Nationally Determined Contributions O&M Operations and maintenance ONAHA National Office for Hydro-Agricultural Development [Office National de Développement Hydro-Agricole] PAGRA Agricultural Risk Management Action Plan [Plan d'Action pour la Gestion des Risques Agricoles] PPP Public-private partnerships R&D Research and development SANAD Security and Sustainable Agricultural Development SDDCI Sustainable Development and Inclusive Growth SME Small-to-medium enterprises SNCA National Agricultural Advisory System [Système National de Conseil Agricole] TFP Total Factor Productivity UEMOA West African Economic and Monetary Union [Union Économique et Monétaire Ouest- Africaine] UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change UNHCR United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees WDI World Development Indicators vii Acknowledgments This report was prepared by the World Bank’s Agriculture and Food (AGF) Global Practice in the Africa West Region. A team co-led by Mekbib Haile (Senior Agriculture Economist) and Aimee Marie Ange Mpambara (Senior Agriculture Economist), assisted by Jean-Paul Chausse (Consultant), conducted the study. The core study team included Chiwimbo Perseverance Mwika (Young Professional) and Tharcisse Guedegbe (Consultant). We acknowledge the support provided by the staff of the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock of Niger. Local government staff and other stakeholders played a vital role during the study preparation, and their participation and insights were essential. Clara de Sousa (Country Director), Chakib Jenane (Regional Director), Abel Lufafa (Practice Manager), and Han Fraeters (Country Manager) provided guidance and valuable oversight for this work. Lindsay Hartley- Backhouse of Written Progress edited the report. Mariame Bamba (Program Analyst) and Salam Hailou (Program Assistant) provided valuable logistical support. The authors are grateful to Samuel Taffesse, Fred Kizito, Irina Schuman, Ghada Elabed, and Hardwick Tchale for their thoughtful comments for improvement. viii Executive Summary i. This report reviews the performance of the agriculture and livestock sector, henceforth the agriculture sector, in Niger over the past few decades. It identifies policy, institutional, and investment options for achieving inclusive, resilient, diversified, competitive, and sustainable agri-food system development. It builds on several studies and government documents on the agricultural sector’s performance. While the report covers a range of sectoral constraints, the primary focus will be on the most hierarchically binding constraints to sector performance—namely, low productivity and climate risk and the key underlying factors and potential policy and investment options to address these. ii. Niger is one of the poorest countries in the world. It is a landlocked Sahelian country with 70 percent of the territory classified as desert. The country’s socio-economic development faces severe and interlinked demographic, climatic, and security challenges. Niger ranked 189 out of 191 countries on the Human Development Index (HDI), scoring 0.4 in 2021. Its Gender Development Index was 0.835, placing Niger among the lowest-performing countries. Poverty is widespread, with 41 percent of the population living below the poverty line in 2019, with poverty more acute in rural areas (46.8 percent) than in urban areas (12 percent). Niger had a Food Security Index of 0.46 in 2022,1 ranking 97 out of 113 countries. Severe food insecurity affects around 10 percent of the population, and 40 percent live under moderate food insecurity. A third of all children under five suffer from chronic undernutrition. iii. Niger experienced modest economic growth until 2000, when it began increasing. Annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth averaged around 2 percent from 1960–2000. With a 3 percent annual population growth rate, the per capita real GDP fell by around 1 percent annually over this period. Niger has experienced strong economic growth since 2000, averaging 5.2 percent annually from 2000–2019. Factors including increased political stability, better macroeconomic management, development of the extractive sector, and more favorable agro-climatic conditions drove economic growth, which in turn supported strong agricultural growth. Yet, the growth has only translated into a modest poverty reduction, from 48 percent in 2011 to 41 percent in 2019. With the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and unfavorable climatic conditions, GDP growth rate fell sharply from 5.9 percent in 2019 to 1.4 percent in 2021. This increased the poverty level to 42 percent, with 800,000 more people living in poverty. Economic growth rebounded to 11.5 percent in 2022, stemming from a 27 percent growth in agricultural production. Further foreign investment in infrastructure and mining and the completion of the Niger-Benin oil pipeline are expected to boost the country’s economic growth. Before the coup, real GDP growth was estimated at 6.9 percent in 2023 and 12.5 percent in 2024. Following the coup and the sanctions, economic growth projection was revised down to 2.3 percent due to the expected decline in exports, consumption, and investment. With the expansion of irrigated agricultural production, and assuming normal harvest from rain-fed agriculture, GDP growth projection for 2023 has been revised upward to 3.6 percent. Under the assumption of a return to normality by 2024, growth could rebound to 11.2 percent in 2024, fueled by ramping up oil production and exports. However, the outlook remains highly uncertain. iv. The agricultural sector continues to be a key driver of economic growth, food security, and poverty alleviation. The sector is important for food and nutrition security in Niger. It contributes above 40 percent of the national GDP and is the second largest source of foreign exchange, after extractive industries. It is a major employer and source of household income, providing jobs to 84 percent of the population, many women and youths. The livelihood of more than 90 percent of Niger’s poor households relies on agriculture; as such, the sector will continue to strongly contribute to inclusive economic growth in the medium to long term and help achieve the Government of Niger’s (GoN) objective of reducing 1 TheFood Security Index (FSI), ranging between a minimum of 0 and a maximum of 1, considers a country’s food security across the dimensions of affordability, availability, quality and safety, and sustainability and adaptation. ix poverty to 20 percent by 2035. Niger’s agro-climatic conditions are favorable for a diversified agricultural production. Niger’s produce, such as onions and other horticulture crops, sesame, cowpea, tiger nut, and livestock products, could be exported to local, regional, and international markets. v. The sector is mostly rain-fed and dominated by subsistence farms under mixed crop-livestock production systems. Above 95 percent of agricultural households farm less than 3 hectares, primarily to meet household needs. The major cultivated crops are staples, including millet (46 percent of the total area), sorghum (18 percent), and cowpea (32 percent). Regarding the livestock sector, which contributes a third of agricultural GDP, the national herd is estimated at more than 10 million cattle, 24 million small ruminants, 1.5 million camels, and 18.7 million poultry. About two-thirds of the ruminant livestock population is raised under mixed crop-livestock production systems; the rest is produced under pastoral systems characterized by significant stock mobility and semi-intensive/intensive production systems. vi. Irrigated agriculture has developed rapidly over the last decade. Although irrigated agriculture covers less than 2 percent of the total cultivated area, it contributes a third of the agricultural GDP. It is estimated that some 200,000 farming households, or about 8 percent of all farming households and close to 2 million people, produce irrigated crops. The most important irrigated crops are onions, mainly for export, and rice for local consumption. Most irrigation occurs on small plots: 1.0 hectare on average in small private irrigation and 0.25–0.50 hectares on public perimeters. vii. The agriculture sector faces several challenges. Growth in the past has mainly come from expanding areas and raising livestock numbers, with limited productivity and quality gains. Niger's cereal yields, averaging 0.56 tons per hectare compared to potential 4.0 tons per hectare, lag behind neighboring countries and are just 36 percent of Sub-Saharan Africa's average. Comparable trends are seen in the livestock sector, with large discrepancies between potential and actual productivity. Challenges to productivity enhancement include (a) scarce availability, accessibility, and adoption of improved technology; (b) weak advisory service provision; (c) constrained access to finance; and (d) modest marketing and value addition. The livestock sector is also characterized by poor husbandry practices, inadequate animal health and hygiene, antiquated slaughtering and meat processing technologies, ineffective food safety systems, and inefficient border logistics and customs inspections. viii. In principle, Niger’s development vision and strategy align well with the sector’s challenges and objectives, stressing the importance of growth, productivity, sustainability, and resilience. Niger's long- term development strategy, Vision Niger 2035, focuses on sustainable and inclusive growth to alleviate poverty and build a middle-class economy by 2035. The comprehensive plan, Nigeriens Nourish Nigeriens Initiative (3NI), launched in 2012, is a broad framework to boost productivity in crops, livestock, and forests and enhance farmers’ and herders’ resilience to climate change and food shortages. The 3NI aligns with the GoN’s sectoral strategies for economic growth, food and nutrition security, environmental sustainability, and crisis management. The new 3NI Five-Year Plan (2021–26) operationalizes the agricultural component of the GoN’s Strategy for Sustainable Development and Inclusive Growth (SDDCI, Niger 2035) and Economic and Social Development Plan (PDES, 2021–26). ix. However, the modernization of the agricultural sector requires a comprehensive and carefully targeted strategy. The strategy should aim to (a) boost productivity through investments in agricultural research, promotion of climate-smart agriculture (CSA) technologies, and improving producers’ access to key services, including credit; (b) improve land tenure security and ensure equitable access to water resources; (c) strengthen the capacities and skills of agricultural producers; (d) integrate farmers into national, regional, and international markets by improving transport and marketing infrastructure; improving access to market information; developing agricultural value chains; and enhancing sanitary and quality control; and (e) mobilize private investments into the sector. x. Given the limited GoN capacity, a targeted and phased approach will be necessary to jump-start x this agricultural transformation. The initial phase should concentrate on profitable geographic areas with high potential for crop and livestock value-chain growth and poverty reduction. Areas with good connectivity to major consumption centers and significant agricultural potential would need to be targeted. Priority value chains would be selected based on growth impact, food security, job creation, appeal to private investors, climate change resilience, and existing organized value-chain groups. xi. Increasing agricultural productivity and building the farming systems’ resilience to climate change will be critical to sustainably increasing household incomes, enhancing food security, and creating jobs for the country’s young and growing population. The sector’s subpar performance is linked to low productivity in both crop and livestock domains, compounded by limited diversification. Improving agricultural productivity and diversification could catalyze inclusive economic growth, especially considering that much of the poor population lives in rural areas. The key investments required to sustain strong agriculture productivity include (a) strengthening agricultural research and extension, (b) strengthening value chains and producer organizations, (c) investing in irrigation, and (d) improving access to inputs, such as improved seeds, fertilizers, and finance. Niger committed to improving its soil health and fertility, as set out in the Lomé Declaration on Fertilizers and Soil Health in West Africa and the Sahel (May 2023), to which Niger is one of the signatories. The GoN established the Food and Nutritional Security Investment Fund (FISAN) in 2017 and the Financial Inclusion Development Fund (FDIF) in 2020 to address access to finance issues. FISAN, for instance, focuses on the agricultural sector, specifically public and private productive investments and research and advisory services. xii. Addressing climate change is critical. Niger is the seventh-most vulnerable country to climate change globally, with temperatures already rising about 1°C since the 1980s. Increases in extreme weather events over the past two decades are projected to continue, with annual temperatures expected to rise by 0.9°C by 2030 and an additional 1.3°C by 2050. These changes threaten soil and water resources, calling for urgent action to mitigate climate change and adapt agricultural practices. To this end, the GoN’s Strategy and National Plan for Adaptation to Climate Change in the Agricultural Sector (SPN2A 2020–2025) strongly focuses on expanding irrigated areas and scaling up measures to enhance the resilience of rain- fed farming systems. Such measures include continuing support to the Great Green Wall Initiative and promotion of relevant CSA practices such as promoting drought-resistant varieties, integrated soil fertility management, water harvesting, and agroforestry, in particular farmer-managed natural regeneration (FMNR). xiii. Niger should also mitigate the impacts of conflicts. Conflicts in rural spaces have escalated among farmers and between farmers and herders. In the northern zone, pastoral areas already impacted by climate change are overrun by the expansion of cultivated land. The Rural Code, the Pastoral Law, and the new Rural Land Policy adopted in November 2019 provide a sound framework for addressing the underlying causes of land-related conflicts. However, many factors hinder their effective implementation, including a lack of human and financial resources and poor local governance. A concerted effort should be made to implement the main dispositions of the operational action plan (PA-PFR, 2021–27) of the new Land Policy. Priority should be given to promoting equitable access to land and water resources to all rural users and strengthening local conflict management mechanisms. xiv. Improving access to markets has large economic growth potential. Niger's export potential is significant considering the large regional and international markets. However, its growth remains hindered by inadequate transport and market infrastructure. Ranking 52nd out of 55 African nations in the Infrastructure Development Index, Niger has one of the least developed infrastructure. Its regional transport facilities, essential for exports, are particularly poor. Further, accessing international seaports requires 70 percent more time and costs than the Sub-Saharan African (SSA) average, stemming from port inefficiencies, obsolete infrastructure, lengthy customs processes, non-tariff barriers, and substandard transport services. Investments should be made in transport and market infrastructure and information xi and communication technologies (ICT) to improve market information, and sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) standards to expand domestic and regional/international market opportunities. xv. Expanding the local agro-processing sector can increase value addition and create jobs. Agro- processing is minimal in Niger, with exports largely consisting of live animals and raw commodities, while processed food products are mostly imported. The formal manufacturing sector contributes just 8 percent of GDP, one of the lowest in SSA. The limited number of market-focused agri-food industries are based in Niamey. Agribusiness development requires incentivizing private investments via several policy and regulatory measures: secure land tenure, transparent and proficient land administration systems, improved access to financial services, risk and transaction cost reduction associated with agricultural investments, and integrated agricultural value-chain development. xvi. Finally and most importantly, improving the quality of agriculture public expenditures is vital for the agri-food sector’s sustainability. The planning and budgeting processes should be improved to better consider climate and other agricultural risks and programs to empower women and develop human resources across the value chains. Public expenditures should support investments in (a) transport and market infrastructure, including rural roads, water and electricity supply, food safety, market information systems, customs and border control facilities; (b) research and development (R&D); and (c) strengthening of extension services to support the adoption of CSA technologies. xvii. Implementation of agriculture public expenditures should be improved in various ways: (a) strengthening the capacity of government institutions responsible for planning and implementing these programs, for instance, by integrating performance-based management into the budget cycle; (b) an increased decentralization of implementation, which includes improving the skills and knowledge of staff, and providing the necessary resources for them to work effectively; and (c) increased coordination and monitoring by 3NI of the many agencies involved in planning and executing the agriculture programs. xii Chapter 1: Country Context 1.1. Objectives and approach 1. This report reviews the performance of the agriculture and livestock sector, henceforth, the agriculture sector, in Niger over the past few decades. It focuses on identifying policy, institutional and investment options for achieving inclusive, resilient, diversified, competitive, and sustainable agri-food system transformation. It builds on several studies and government documents on the sector's performance. While the report covers a range of sectoral constraints, the primary focus will be on the most hierarchically binding constraints to sector performance. The report's primary focus will be low productivity and climate risk, and the key underlying factors and potential policy and investment options to address these. The recommendations of this study would help sharpen the implementation of the current agriculture development strategy, including the 2021–2026 action plan of the 3NI, and inform the design of future sector strategies. Besides informing the GoN’s policy and programs, the report intends to inform sector engagement among development partners in the country. 2. Niger is one of the poorest countries in the world. Approximately 67 percent of Niger is desert, with just 11 percent suitable for farming. In 2021, the poverty rate was 42 percent. The economy lacks diversity, with agriculture accounting for over 40 percent of GDP and engaging 75 percent of the workforce, while manufacturing contributes a mere 8 percent. Niger relies heavily on the export of minerals and unprocessed farm products. As such, international commodity pricing and the performance of the climate- dependent agriculture sector significantly influence the country's economic volatility. 3. Niger’s development objective is to sustainably increase household incomes, enhance food security, and create jobs for its young and growing population. To this end, the GoN set an ambitious goal to achieve sustainable and inclusive growth, reduce poverty, and lay the foundations to build a middle- class economy by 2035. Over 80 percent of the population relies on agriculture, and above 90 percent of people experiencing poverty reside in rural areas. Therefore, enhancing Niger's agricultural sector is crucial. Addressing this amidst Niger's economic, demographic, climatic, and security challenges necessitates novel policy and investment interventions. It demands significant transformations in the agri-food system to achieve sustained productivity improvements. 4. The report is organized into five chapters. Chapter 1 provides an insight into the country's macroeconomic landscape, encompassing the present poverty and food security issues. Chapter 2 presents an overview of the agriculture sector’s performance and significant challenges. Chapter 3 discusses the GoN's agri-food system transformation strategy. Chapter 4 outlines potential scenarios and opportunities for agriculture sector transformation. Chapter 5 presents the main conclusions and a possible way forward to achieve the goal of Vision Niger 2035 “…to be a modern, peaceful, prosperous country that is proud of its cultural values in a united and solidary Africa,� (Republic of Niger 2017). 1.2. Macroeconomic context 5. With a GDP per capita of US$654.3 in 2022, Niger remains one of the world’s poorest countries. Over 50 percent of the population lives in extreme poverty, of which more than 90 percent are in rural areas. Niger ranked 189th out of 191 countries in the HDI for 2021, scoring 0.4. It also ranked 155th out of 157 countries on the Human Capital Index, with 80 percent of the adult population being illiterate and life expectancy at birth estimated at 62 years. The country’s very erratic economic performance exacerbated these issues. 6. Until 2000, Niger’s long-term economic growth was modest, then increased. Annual GDP growth averaged around 2 percent from 1960–2000. With population growing at an annual rate of 3 percent, the 1 per capita real GDP fell by around 1 percent yearly. Niger experienced strong economic growth after 2000, averaging 5.2 percent annually from 2000–19 (figure 1). Better macroeconomic management, the development of the extractive sector, and more favorable agro-climatic conditions supported a sustained growth in agricultural production. 7. However, the recent strong economic growth performance has not translated into a significant poverty reduction. This is partly limited by the high population growth rate, averaging 3.9 between 2000– 2019.2 The poverty rate modestly decreased from 48 percent in 2011 to 41 percent in 2019,3 but the number of people in extreme poverty increased by about a million more, reaching 9 million in 2019. With the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and unfavorable climatic conditions, Niger’s GDP growth rate fell sharply from 5.9 percent in 2019 to 3.6 percent in 2020, then to 1.4 percent in 2021 (figure 1). This increased the poverty level to 42 percent, with 0.8 million more people becoming poor. Economic growth rebounded to 11.5 percent in 2022, stemming from a 27 percent growth in agricultural production. This 14 followed favorable climatic conditions and increased investment in irrigation. Further 12 foreign investment in infrastructure and mining GDP growth, % 10 and the completion of the Niger-Benin oil 8 pipeline are expected to boost the country’s 6 economic growth. In 2023, real GDP growth is 4 projected at 6.9 percent in 2023 and 12.5 2 percent in 2024. However, the downside risks 0 are high, as the country faces a high population growth rate, climate vulnerability, and ongoing political instability and insecurity. Figure 1. Niger’s annual GDP growth (2011–22) Source: World Development Indicators (WDI). 8. Niger’s economic performance is highly volatile because of its high vulnerability to climate change, which primarily affects the agriculture sector that accounts for 44.3 percent of the country’s GDP. For example, total economic output dropped from 10.5 percent in 2012 to 1.4 percent in 2021, primarily due to decreased cereal production. However, it rebounded to 11.5 percent in 2022, largely due to improved agricultural performance. These economic fluctuations significantly harm people experiencing poverty. Moreover, the war in Ukraine and its aftermath—soaring energy, fertilizer, and food costs—have deepened food insecurity among those experiencing poverty. 1.3. Major challenges and recent developments 9. Niger is a landlocked Sahelian country with substantial demographic, environmental and security challenges. The coexistence of these multiple challenges constitutes a major threat to the country’s long- term economic and social development. Addressing these challenges will require strong, sustained, and inclusive economic growth that can be provided only by the structural transformation of Niger’s economy, particularly its agriculture sector. 1.3.1. Population growth 10. Niger’s overwhelming long-term challenge is its extremely high population growth. The current population stands at 26 million (2022 estimate), and is expected to reach 65 million by 2050, 105 million 2 Growth rates range from 3.1 percent in 1980, 3.4 percent in 2000, and 3.9 percent in 2021 (UN Population Division 2021). 3 Poverty estimates are based on official household survey data from the NIS (2019). 2 by 2070, and close to 165 million by 2100.4 The rapid population growth and climate change exacerbate the degradation of the nation’s natural resources, adversely impacting an already fragile rain-fed agricultural sector. This population increase intensifies the competition for land, pasture, and water, escalating intercommunity conflicts in rural territories. Although population growth can create opportunities for Niger’s future agricultural expansion, it simultaneously increases pressure on the country’s fragile ecosystems, especially in the southern regions. Increased population has led to a surge in rural population density, especially in the southern areas of Maradi, Tahoua, and Dosso, reaching an unsustainable 100–150 inhabitants per square kilometer.2 This high density threatens traditional extensive agro-pastoral systems, further fragmentating farms and accelerating the degradation of vulnerable ecosystems. 1.3.2. Climate change 11. Niger is one of the world's most vulnerable countries to climate change. It is ranked 176th of 182 countries on the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative (ND-GAIN).5 The impact of climate change is already visible, with a continuous rise in temperatures of about 1°C since the 1980s or the equivalent of 0.25°C per decade (figure 2). The number of extremely hot days has risen, excluding the high-elevation regions and the extreme north. In the 1970s, annual precipitation significantly decreased; the 300- millimeter isohyet moved about 150 kilometers south, accelerating desertification and greatly reducing northern pastures. However, from the mid-2000s, annual rainfall began increasing, yet the start of the rainy season, its duration, and rainfall amount vary greatly yearly across Niger. Moreover, there's been a resurgence of extreme events in the past two decades, including nine significant droughts and five major floods, which have heavily impacted the population's livelihoods, agricultural production through destruction of productive assets, and food security. These outcomes have stirred severe food crises, rural conflicts, and mass migration to urban areas for food and jobs. Additionally, flooding in the Niger river and Komadougou basins affects over 100,000 people annually. 12. Climate change is projected to exacerbate Niger’s current vulnerabilities, especially for those whose livelihoods rely on the agri-food sector. The Country Climate and Development Report for the Sahel region (World Bank 2022b) highlighted Niger as one of the world’s most vulnerable countries to extreme droughts, floods, heatwaves, and desertification, resulting in debilitating impacts on crops, livestock, productive infrastructure, and human settlements (figure 3). Water scarcity, longer dry seasons, Figure 2. Projected mean temperature (°C) in Niger (Ref. period 1995 – extreme floods, and impacts of 2014) higher temperatures may also Source: World Bank 2022a. trigger new conflict and forced migration, issues that already impact the region. Niger faces major droughts every 2.2 years on average and increasingly severe floods and is 4 World Population Prospects, United Nations’ Population Division; 2019. 5 For further information, see the Notre Dame Environmental Change Initiative 2022. 3 expected to suffer worsening climate change impacts. By the 2050s, median temperature may rise by up to 2.9°C and median annual precipitation by 38 percent. By 2050, this is projected to decrease production of millet, sorghum, maize, and groundnut across the country by averages of 17 percent, 12 percent, 33 percent, and 16 percent, respectively. Similar severe climate change effects are predicted for the livestock sector—increased livestock diseases and deaths and shortage of feed/fodder and water—with associated negative impacts and cascading consequences on livelihoods, especially for the poor smallholder farmers. Compared to a medium-growth baseline, climate change is estimated to reduce Niger’s annual GDP by 2.2 percent by 2050 under the wet and optimistic climate scenarios and by 11.9 percent under the dry and pessimistic climate scenarios (World Bank 2022b). Niger’s overall fragility, conflict, and violence exacerbate these vulnerabilities. Figure 3. Natural hazard statistics, 1980–2020 Source: World Bank 2022a. 1.3.3. Conflict and fragility 13. Niger is exposed to multiple risks of fragility, conflict, and violence. In recent years, transnational security threats have surged, most notably along Niger's borders with Mali, Burkina Faso, Nigeria, and Chad. Further, internal crises, such as conflicts among communities and armed groups, have significantly displaced civilians. By the end of August 2022, the UNHCR registered 294,467 refugees and roughly 350,000 displaced persons within Niger. To curtail poverty and conflict and cultivate recovery and economic growth, it is essential to ensure gainful employment for young people, women, and vulnerable populations in intensified agri-food sectors, including crop and livestock. 14. Imported security threats have exacerbated the historical tensions between the country's different social and ethnolinguistic groups.6 Conflicts yield immense human suffering and economic consequences, as they damage infrastructure, human capital, and institutions, affecting growth during and post-conflict and causing a "conflict trap." Conflict particularly harms food production and security in rural areas, limiting producers’ access to fields, inflating transport, agricultural input, and food costs, destroying valuable resources like livestock and infrastructure, hindering economic revival, and displacing populations, often straining relationships with host communities.7 Conflicts also disrupt cross-border trade, resulting in food deficits and price increases. Finally, conflicts limit the presence of the state in the affected areas, reducing the coverage of security, social, and health services. Conflicts reduce fiscal receipts by disrupting economic activity and shifting public spending away from development programs towards military 6 The most prevalent intercommunity conflicts are between nomadic herders and sedentary farmers. Although Niger has adopted legislation, such as the Rural Code 1993 and Pastoral Charter 2010, to organize peaceful coexistence between the two groups, the effective implementation of these provisions has been limited. 7 According to UNHCR, there were 580,000 forcibly displaced people in Niger in May 2022, including 360,000 refugees. 4 spending. This helps perpetuate social tensions and conflicts by allowing armed groups and criminal networks to recruit marginalized young people. 1.3.4. Poverty prevalence 15. With over 90 percent of the poor residing in rural areas, poverty is an overwhelmingly rural phenomenon in Niger. The poverty incidence is 46.8 percent in rural areas, compared to 7 percent in Niamey and 11.8 percent in other urban areas. Despite being the most agriculturally productive regions, Tahoua, Dosso, Maradi, Tillaberi, and Zinder have the highest poverty levels (figure 4). Among these, Dosso and Zinder have the highest incidence of poverty, 48 percent. Zinder and Maradi are home to the largest number of poor people – almost half of the poor Nigeriens live in these two regions alone (figure 4). These regions also account for a large share of the total population and, thus, for more than 90 percent of the country’s poor. Figure 4. Regional poverty prevalence Source: World Bank 2021b. 1.3.5. Food and nutrition security 16. Food and nutrition security is a major concern for Niger. Food insecurity and malnutrition have two main interlinked dimensions in Niger: (a) chronic or structural food insecurity, resulting from a structural deficit in production at the national level, and from household-level poverty; and (b) short-term food insecurity due to specific events, which periodically affect the whole country, certain regions, or categories of the population, e.g., natural disasters, market disruptions, and conflicts. Food insecurity magnifies a household's vulnerability to economic risks. Any production or income shock in a year can exacerbate their poverty and permanent insecurity by eroding their productive assets. As of November 2022, data indicates that about 2.8 million people are at high risk of food insecurity for the 2023 lean season. In Niger, an estimated 12.7 percent suffer from acute malnutrition, and 42 percent of children under 5 years are stunted. Factors including high fertility rates, low farm and livestock productivity, land degradation, desertification, and climate change intensify food and nutrition insecurity in Niger. 17. Niger ranked 97 out of 113 countries with a Global Food Security Index of 0.43 in 2022.8 Around 10 percent of the population (about 2.5 million people) are severely food insecure, whereas 40 percent (10 million people) are moderately food insecure, even in years of normal harvests. Millions more suffer from seasonal and transitory food insecurity. These figures are much higher during the climate-related food crises that regularly affect the country.9 Chronic food insecurity and a high prevalence of infectious diseases have led Niger to record some of the world's highest malnutrition and mortality rates. Nationally, 33.2 8According to The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Global Food Security Index. 9In August 2022, 4 million Nigeriens were in phase 3 (crisis) and 400 000 in phase 4 (emergency) according to the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification – IPC. 5 percent of all children under five suffered from chronic undernutrition in 2022 and 12.2 percent from acute malnutrition, both well above the 30 percent and 10 percent thresholds set by the World Health Organization (National Institute of Statistics, NIS 2022). The primary causes of prevalent malnutrition encompass inadequate caloric intake, dietary diversity deficiencies, improper childcare and nourishment, common diseases like malaria and respiratory illness, and poor hygiene and sanitation practices. Like poverty, food scarcity and malnutrition are most prevalent in the most fertile agricultural regions of Maradi and Zinder. 18. Most farm households cannot cover their food consumption needs because of small farm sizes, large family sizes, and high dependency ratios. Households typically sell their produce right after harvest when prices are low but purchase food during the lean season when prices are high. This is the case even in high potential agricultural zones where over 60 percent of household food is purchased. Most smallholders have few physical, human, and financial assets to respond to shocks, whether related to the markets, climate, or health. Households’ inability to cope with shocks leads them to sell their assets or acquire debt, driving them into chronic poverty. Given its prevalent poverty traps, addressing rural poverty necessitates a multifaceted strategy. This strategy should tackle constraints hindering productivity increases, enhance access to markets, risk-reducing technologies, key technical and financial services, and improve human capital, focusing on women's education. 19. Food security has also worsened nationally, as local food production has not kept pace with domestic demand. Cereals like millet, sorghum, and rice form the staple diet of Nigeriens, accounting for roughly two-thirds of their total calorie consumption and 40 percent of their food spending, over 50 percent for poorer rural households.10 Despite their importance for micronutrients, meat, fish, dairy, and vegetables comprise less than 5 percent of daily caloric intake (figure 5). Cereal Figure 5. Sources of total calorie intake production rose from 3 to 6 million tons between 2000 and 2021, a 2.8 percent yearly Source: QUIBB, ECVAM in World Bank (2009). increase of 1 percent below yearly population growth (3.9 percent). The result is a growing food production deficit that often widens during drought years, necessitating large commercial imports and international humanitarian aid. 20. Food imports are rapidly increasing. In 2022, total cereal production was estimated at 5.7 million tons, and domestic demand at 6.4 million tons. This ∼700,000-ton deficit had to be met by imports: 445,000 tons of rice, 165,000 tons of millet and sorghum, and the remainder wheat.11 Niger’s most critical supplier of dry cereals is Nigeria: an estimated 75–85 percent of millet and sorghum imports and 35 percent of maize are imported from Nigeria, although significant cereal imports also come from Benin, Mali, and Burkina Faso. Overreliance on Nigeria represents a definite risk as important droughts are usually covariate, and Niger’s traditional cereal basket, the Zinder and Maradi regions, are along Nigeria’s northern border. Also, Nigeria’s production of millet, sorghum, and maize is much larger than Niger’s, and supply and 10 About 95 percent of the households consume millet, with 25 and 30 percent of total food expenditures among urban and rural households, respectively. Fifty percent of households consume sorghum (with 4 and 5 percent of total food expenditures among urban and rural areas). Rice is the third most important cereal in Niger, comprising around 10 percent of all cereal consumption and is gaining more importance especially among urban households. 11 Data on Niger’s cereal imports and exports are highly unreliable, partly due to the large volume of informal trade occurring between Niger and its neighbors, Benin, Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, and Nigeria. In most years, unofficial net imports of sorghum and millet from Nigeria are likely much larger than recorded official imports. 6 demand conditions in northern Nigeria, including through the impacts of insecurity in border areas and macroeconomic policy shifts, significantly influence cereal prices and availability in Niger (table 1). Table 1. Cereal supply and demand balance for the 2022/23 marketing year (Nov/Oct) Source: FAO 2023, as of February 2023. 7 Chapter 2: The Agriculture Sector as a Key Driver of Economic Development 2.1. An overview of the Nigerien agriculture sector 21. The agriculture sector is central to Niger’s socio-economic development. The sector is the primary food source at the household level and is vital for the country's food and nutrition security. It contributes over 40 percent to the GDP and is the second largest foreign exchange source of foreign exchange after extractive industries. It is also a major employer and source of household income, providing jobs to 84 percent of the population, many women and young people. As more than 90 percent of Niger’s poor households rely on the sector for their livelihoods, the agricultural sector will continue contributing to overall economic growth in the medium to long term and achieving the GoN’s ambition of reducing poverty to 20 percent by 2035. 22. The sector is mostly rain-fed and dominated by subsistence and small family farms under mixed crop-livestock production systems. Over 95 percent of farm households cultivate less than 3 hectares, primarily for their own consumption. The chief crops are staples such as millet (46 percent of the total area), sorghum (18 percent of the total area), and cowpea (32 percent of the total area). The national livestock count is estimated at over 10 million cattle, 24 million small ruminants, 1.5 million camels, and 18.7 million poultry. Approximately two-thirds of ruminant livestock is reared under mixed crop-livestock systems, with the rest under pastoral and semi-intensive/intensive systems. The crop and livestock sectors contribute two-thirds and a third of agricultural GDP, respectively. 23. Overall, the performance of the agricultural sector in Niger has been chronically low and highly volatile. Over the last decade, the sector’s growth has averaged 4 percent per annum,12 considerably below the 7–8 percent annual growth rates often cited as necessary to achieve the GoN’s objectives on economic growth, employment, food security, and poverty reduction. This growth has typically been volatile, where years of strong growth are immediately punctuated by decelerating growth or episodes of negative growth due to shocks, including droughts, floods, and political instability (figure 6). Due to low and volatile growth, Niger continues registering negative food balances and perennially relies on imports to bridge the deficit.13 24. Low crop and livestock 30 productivity contribute to the 25 suboptimal performance of the 20 sector. Despite some advances, 15 substantial yield gaps persist in 10 most crops in Niger's sector. The 5 average yield of cereals in Niger is 0 0.56 tons per hectare, far below -5 -10 the potential 4 tons per hectare and just 36 percent of the average 2015 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2017 2019 2021 yields in SSA (figure 7). Similar gaps Figure 6. Annual agriculture, forestry, and fishing growth (%) exist in the livestock sector. This Source: World Bank Data 2021. low productivity is primarily due to limited access to and adoption of advanced technology, such as improved seeds and livestock breeds, disease management, soil and water conservation, insufficient advisory services, difficulty accessing finance, and restricted marketing and value 12 This has been driven primarily by area expansion - TFP grew at less than 1 percent per year over the period. 13 Although most Nigerien households engage in some farming, almost all households are net food buyers. 8 addition, undermining profitability and the adoption of technology. 25. Besides low productivity, limited diversification is responsible for the sector’s poor performance. Structurally, agriculture in Niger has changed very little over the last three decades. Millet, sorghum, rice, and cowpea—occupying 96 percent of the cultivated area14—drive much of agricultural growth, with Burkina Faso Mali Niger Nigeria Sub-Saharan Africa Chad 2.0 1.5 Yield (tons/ha) 1.0 0.5 0.0 2011 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Figure 7. Average cereal yields for Niger, neighboring countries and ub-Saharan Africa Source: World Bank Data 2021. diversification contributing little to the sector’s growth. Millet and sorghum contribute to over 90 percent of the total cereal production. Millet alone contributes over 70 percent and is the dominant staple food across much of the country, playing a central role in national food availability and access. Yet, the growing urban and export markets will require a different mix of products, including rice, fresh products, good- quality meat, and generally more high-quality and processed products. Diversifying agricultural products towards high-value commodities can hasten sector growth, meet demands for varied food supply, improve nutrition, build climate resilience, and enhance producer incomes. These require the progression of irrigation, downstream processing, and structured value chains. 2.2. Main productions and farming systems 26. Extensive rain-fed agriculture and livestock farming systems dominate the agro-pastoral activities in Niger. In 2005, there were 1.6 million farms representing 11 million people, with an average size of around 4 hectares (Rabe 2022). In 2022, less than two decades later, rural population density had increased significantly, particularly in the southern strip of the country, where density is estimated between 120 and 200 inhabitants per square kilometer. It is estimated that the farm count surpasses 2.5 million with diminishing sizes. The average arable land per rural person has decreased considerably from 3.0 hectares in 1980 to 1.5 hectares in 2000 and currently stands at under 1.0 hectare.15 Most rural households carry out both agriculture and non-agriculture activities to diversify income. However, productivity is low, and several factors prevent sustained productivity improvements. 14Global Yield Gap Atlas. https://www.yieldgap.org/Niger 15The decline is more pronounced in the southern agricultural belt and in the irrigated perimeters where plot size has been greatly reduced by population growth and inheritance, i.e., where offspring are given parts of farms, reducing overall farm size. 9 2.2.1. Crop production 27. Niger’s farming systems are largely rain-fed and dominated by smallholder, subsistence agriculture (figure 8). Rain-fed agriculture contributes 40 percent to agricultural GDP, with 30 percent from irrigated crops and the balance from livestock. Over 90 percent of farming households rely on rain-fed agriculture, accounting for approximately 90 percent of Niger's total food output. The most prevalent crops are cereals and cowpeas, staples for most locals. Millet occupies most farmland, with virtually all farmers growing it, followed by cowpea (30 percent) and sorghum (20 percent).16 Rice is grown along the Niger river, supplemented by maize, wheat, and fonio, cultivated by under 10 percent of farmers. Main legumes include cowpeas and groundnuts, while other rainfed crops are cotton, cassava, nutsedge, tiger nuts, and sesame. 28. Production of staple crops is typically for households’ own food security, with very little marketable surplus. Most households sell their agricultural produce after harvest to finance their basic needs and buy food during the lean period. Most farms opt for production systems minimizing climatic risk based on the intercropping of millet, sorghum, and cowpea, representing roughly 75 percent of the total sown area. Farmers rely on livestock manure and crop residues as organic fertilizers. The farming system in Niger has, however, the potential for intensification through sustainable mixed crop- livestock practices. To this end, Figure 8. Farming systems in Niger emphasis should be given to Source: AGRHYMET. sustainable intensification methods that support the restoration of land and increase land and water productivity to bring the land back into productive agriculture. 29. Agricultural productivity is very low, with yields highly dependent on climatic conditions. Cereal production has steadily increased over the last 20 years, from 3 to 6 million tons during 2000–21, an increase of about 2.8 percent per year over the period. This largely stems from acreage expansion as yields from rainfed agriculture remained very low (figure 9). Nigerien producers are risk-averse, and 80 percent of staple crops are intercropped, a technique well suited for risk mitigation against climatic shocks but inefficient in attaining optimal yields. The farming systems rely on traditional labor-intensive methods, with purchased modern inputs predominantly used for irrigated production in development project areas or distributed as emergency aid by donors. Average mineral fertilizer use is around 0.6 kilograms per hectare of arable land, less than other Sub-Saharan African countries (Mali 33 and Kenya 50 kilograms per hectare) and well below the 2006 Abuja Fertilizer Declaration target of 30 kilograms per hectare. Although the use of improved seeds has increased under the 3NI, over 90 percent of the cultivated area is estimated to be cropped with seeds from the previous year's harvest or purchased from local markets. The combination of 16 Data from FAOSTAT 2017. 10 low soil fertility, widespread use of intercropping, and limited access to modern inputs means crop yields are among the lowest in West Africa. Other factors contributing to low yields include unfavorable and risky climate conditions, high input costs, and little-to-no access to technical and financial services. Similarly, low human capital contributes to low yields: only 22 percent of household heads are literate, with 17 percent at a primary school level. 5 Yield (tons/ha) 4 3 2 1 0 Cowpea Fonio Groundnut Maize Millet Rice Sorghum Figure 9. Average yield of selected crops in Niger (2000–21) Source: FAOSTAT 2023. 30. Irrigated agriculture has developed rapidly over the last decade and currently occupies approximately 210,000 hectares, with an additional 120,000 hectares under flood recession. Expanding irrigation has been the GoN’s prime focus; it has doubled irrigated lands since 2010 mainly due to private small-scale irrigation. Despite the irrigated subsector comprising less than 2 percent of overall cultivated lands, it contributes roughly one-third of agricultural GDP. Approximately 200,000 farming households— about 2 million people and 8 percent of total farming households—engage in irrigation-based crop production. Key irrigated crops include onions, predominantly for exports, and rice for local consumption, aside from various others, including market gardening, cereals, tubers, legumes, and other crops. Most irrigation-centric cultivation occurs on small plots, approximately 1.0 hectares in private and 0.25–0.5 hectares in public irrigation. Plot size is steadily diminishing due to population growth and inheritance. 2.2.2. Livestock production 31. The livestock sector plays a major role in agricultural growth and food and nutritional security. It contributes around 30 percent of the agricultural GDP and 5 percent of the country's export earnings. A total of 13 million households (42 percent of the population) own livestock, with livestock production contributing an average of 15 percent of their total income, rising to up to 45 percent in pastoral zones. Four main types of livestock production systems co-exist in Niger, based on agro-climatic conditions: • The transhumant-nomadic system (annual rainfall under 300 millimeters): Characterized by extensive systems for camels, small ruminants, and cattle, where nomadism is the most effective strategy to access forage and water resources. Weather and other shocks have repeatedly affected herd survival and pushed many families to move south and gradually to sedentarism or even migrate to cities. • The agro-pastoral system (annual rainfall of 300–400 millimeters): Characterized by long-distance transhumance (southeastern Mali, northern Benin, or Nigeria) in the mid-upper belts of southern Niger still plays an important role, but there is a significant shift toward mixed crop-livestock systems. 11 This represents about two-thirds of the country’s total herd and is where the expansion of cultivated areas increases conflicts between herders and farmers for resource use. • The sedentary integrated crop/livestock system (annual rainfall of over 400 millimeters): Predominantly practiced in the southern zones of the country. This system has experienced a significant increase in livestock numbers, mainly cattle and small ruminants, as a strategy to diversify and increase household income, food security, and asset capital. The sedentary system is the most dominant, with two-thirds of the livestock production in predominantly agricultural and peri-urban zones. • The peri-urban semi-intensive livestock systems primarily consist of poultry and ruminant livestock production for meat and milk production. 32. Niger’s herd population has steadily increased over the recent decades, along with increasing domestic and regional demand for livestock products (figure 10). Apart from semi-intensive peri-urban systems, livestock systems in Niger are primarily traditional with low productivity. While adapted to Niger’s agro-climate, local breeds have low genetic potential. This productivity is hampered further by inadequate fodder and water resources, poor animal care practices, prevalence of endemic diseases, insufficient veterinary services, and lack of substantial technical support services. The GoN largely withdrew technical and health coverage support for farming in the early 1990s; the private sector has only partially filled this gap through specific projects or in peri-urban areas. Since 2008, private veterinarians and auxiliary services have carried out free vaccinations against priority diseases like contagious bovine Figure 10. Development of livestock numbers, 1995 –2020 pleuropneumonia and peste des petits ruminants (PPR). However, low vaccination rates and deworming persist for other illnesses due to farmers’ unwillingness to pay. Compared to neighboring Mali, the distribution of veterinary drugs is underdeveloped in Niger. Current sanitary challenges hinder livestock production growth and threaten export opportunities to regional and international markets. 33. Access to pasture and water is a major problem. In traditional systems, animal feed comes mainly from natural pastures and crop residues. Livestock feed production, mainly for peri-urban agriculture, is limited and impacted by expanded agricultural land use and climate change. Over the years, these factors have reduced natural pasture productivity. Due to common fodder shortages, breeders exploit protected areas or resort to forced livestock reduction. Expanded crop areas also affect herd mobility, intensifying clashes between migratory herders and settled farmers. 2.3. Niger’s natural resource base for agriculture production 34. Despite Niger’s large size, its agro-pastoral potential is relatively limited and under growing climatic and anthropogenetic threats. Approximately two-thirds of the region is desert, receiving below 150 millimeters of annual rainfall. The total agricultural land, nearly 46 million hectares (figure 11), contains 12 14 percent arable land and 23 percent permanent pastures.17 Niger has a large irrigation potential, with an estimated 270,000 hectares irrigable from surface water and up to 5 million hectares from underground water that can be easily mobilized. It also has significant fishing potential from an estimated 400,000 hectares of inland water. Currently, the land area under permanent (tree) crops is very limited (roughly 0.1 percent of the total agricultural area), and forests cover less than 2 percent of the country’s land area. 35. Agricultural and pastoral activities are carried out in four distinct major agro-ecological zones: • The Saharan Zone in the north (77 percent of the country): Receives 0–50 millimeters of rainfall per year, with essentially irrigated agriculture practiced in the oases. • The Sub-Saharan Pastoral Zone (12 percent of the total land area): Receives 50–200 millimeters of rainfall per year, is traditionally pastoral, with increasing expansion of agricultural activities due to increasing population pressure. Figure 11. Land use in Niger • The Sahelian Agro-Pastoral Zone (10 percent of Source: CIAT, ICRISAT, BFS/USAID 2020. the land area): Receives 200–600 millimeters of rainfall per year with mixed livestock and cereal production and some off-season production of cash crops. • The Sudano-Sahelian Zone (1 percent of the land area): Receives 600–800 millimeters of rain per year and is most suitable for agriculture and livestock production and significant off-season production of cash crops. 36. Rainfed agriculture is limited to the north by the 350-millimeter isohyet, in a strip of about 200 kilometers from north to south, beyond which millet production is no longer possible. Some 95 percent of agricultural land is concentrated in the Sahelian and Sahel-Sudan zones, 11 percent of the country’s total area. Even in these zones, rainfall is concentrated over three to four months, with significant spatio-temporal variations. The area particularly suitable for agriculture (dark green in figure 12) receives 500–800 millimeters per year and is mainly concentrated in the extreme south-western strip of the country. This area represents only 2 percent of the country’s total land Figure 12. Niger’s major agro-ecological zones area. Land resources 37. Niger’s land resources are under severe stress due to increasing anthropogenic pressures from a 17 Source FAOSTAT. Most sources indicate arable areas of 15 million ha. However, after land use moved south between 1950 and 1990 due to a drop in precipitation, the average annual precipitation has been increasing since the 1990s; the isohyets that delimit these agro-climatic zones have been shifting north. 13 fast-growing population and ongoing climate change. The country’s soils, fragile and of low fertility, deteriorate rapidly under cultivation without fertilizers or organic manure to counter erosion and continuous farming losses. Climate change-induced droughts and rapid population growth have led to extensive land degradation and deforestation.18 Vegetation cover is quickly declining, dropping 80,000– 100,000 hectares per year. This is accelerating desertification in the north, causing erosion and degrading ecosystems, affecting soil fertility, water storage, and nutrient cycling. Niger must address this issue to safeguard food security. Encouragingly, its programs for sustainable soil management and re-greening rural regions have shown progress in curtailing soil degradation. Such efforts need expanding. Water resources 38. Niger has significant water resources and does not experience a significant water stress at the national level.19 The water resources per person and per year (1,600 cubic meters) and the current abstraction rate (11 percent) are, for the moment, globally satisfactory compared to the water stress thresholds set by the FAO (respectively 1,700 cubic meters and 25 percent). Water availability in Niger significantly varies by region, with the northern Saharan and Sahelian zones presently experiencing pronounced or severe water stress. This stress is anticipated to intensify due to climate change and population growth. Niger’s surface water resources of 32 cubic kilometers per year primarily originate from the Niger river and its tributaries along the southeastern border with Nigeria. Rainwater is another renewable source, supplementing aquifers and many ponds nationwide, serving livestock watering, small- scale irrigation, and fish farming. Considering water availability and land suitability (figure 13), Niger’s estimated groundwater potential suggests an irrigable area of around 5.7 million hectares using shallow aquifers at 0–15 meters deep and 8.6 million hectares irrigated from aquifers at 0–30 meters) (Ministry of Agriculture 2021). Pastoral resources 39. Niger has important pastoral resources. The Sahélo-Saharan region, mostly made up of 30 million hectares of pastureland, allows for broad pastoral activities. Favorable for mixed agricultural-livestock farming, the southern Sudanese and Sudano-Sahelian zones have ample pastures. Nonetheless, Niger's pastoral resources have experienced some degradation over recent decades due to expanding desertification in the north and shrinking fallows and communal grazing areas in the south.20 Climate change and overgrazing have led to a decrease in Figure 13. Depth of shallow aquifers biodiversity. The national feed balance Source: Ministry of Agriculture 2021. sheets indicate an increasing gap in 18 Forest cover decreased from 16 million hectares in 1982, to 5 million in 2006 and 1.2 million today. 19 SDG Indicator 6.4.2 tracks how much freshwater is being withdrawn by all economic activities, compared to the total renewable freshwater resources available. When a territory withdraws 25 per cent or more of its renewable freshwater resources it is considered water-stressed. 20 The grazing land area has fallen from 41 million hectares in 1975 to about 29 million at present, a loss of more than 25 percent, while agricultural areas have nearly tripled during the same period, from 6.5 million hectares to over 15 million. 14 supply and demand for the country's livestock needs. Measures to avoid exceeding pasturelands' carrying capacity are crucial for sustainable livestock farming. 2.4. Addressing the key sectoral challenges 2.4.1. Creating inclusive employment for the growing population 40. The agriculture sector provides employment opportunities for a large proportion of young people entering the labor market every year. Over half of Niger's population is aged under 15, with an annual influx of roughly 280,000 youth into the labor market, projected to surge to 550,000 by 2035. Predominantly rural-based, these young people will require considerable jobs in agriculture and agribusinesses, supporting economic growth and helping curb urban migration. A thriving agri-food sector can offer many opportunities, from production to the entire food value chain. Agriculture is labor-intensive, encompassing a network of small transport, processing, and catering businesses that create numerous jobs. As the economy evolves, the focus shifts from agriculture employment, but the non-farm food sector compensates with job creation (World Bank 2017). In developing the agri-food sector, it is crucial to tackle barriers preventing youth employment by enhancing skills and accessibility to land and finance. 41. Access to education has improved over the recent decades, but much work remains. There's a consensus surrounding the significant skills gap between a young individual’s abilities and those required by the labor market. This skills shortage complicates acquiring and mastering new, technology-driven agricultural methods, like good agricultural practices (GAP), CSA, soil health and fertility, etc., or marketing and processing skills needed for modern agriculture. The enhancements in Niger’s primary education system are vital for young rural individuals to grasp the basic skills needed for labor market integration. Additionally, reinforcing national technical and vocational training and boosting entrepreneurship programs can aid in modernizing the agri-food system. 42. The proportion of women working in agriculture fell from 40 percent in 2006 to 11 percent in 2012 (NIS 2016). Although these findings may be partly due to the significant amount of invisible labor women provide, they underline the sharp decline in women's participation in direct agricultural production. This development has been termed the “de-feminization of agriculture in Niger� (Doka and Monimart 2004). The 2014 national survey also highlighted several constraints women face in agriculture, a sector dominated by men, with about 95 percent of all agricultural households having male household heads. Although the Rural Code mentions that both men and women have full access rights to natural resources, including land, water, and other resources, women’s access is still very limited, largely depending on customary patriarchal institutions.21 Female-managed plots are, in general, smaller and of lower quality. Women farmers have much lower access to inputs, financial services, and technical support than men. Women’s access to agricultural extension is severely limited by their domestic workload, high level of illiteracy, and opposition from their husbands, given that most agricultural advisers are men. As a result, plots managed by women produce on average 20 percent less per hectare than plots managed by men. Women are also the primary victims of increasing pressure on land as they are being dispossessed even from the small plots allocated by the head of the household. This is particularly true of their access to irrigated land.22 43. Women are, however, very active in the informal trade of food products. It is estimated that over 70 percent of rural women are involved in agricultural trade. However, most women intervene in the low- 21 For most of the women, the only possibilities to access land are the small plots (gamana). These range from a few square meters, i.e., a home garden, to under 1/2 hectares, allocated by the head of household. In addition, women are not entitled to grow perennial crops that mobilize land over extended periods. 22 According to ONAHA/GWI (2017) out of 23,100 producers, only 615 women (3 percent) were farming on its 33 perimeters in Tillabery. On the irrigated perimeters of the Niamey region, the percentage of women is only 5 percent. 15 value levels of the marketing chains, in the collection and primary processing, and limit their activities to selling on local markets.23 Social norms constrain their mobility, and they cannot go to markets too distant from their own village (World Bank 2014). Rural women are also constrained by their limited level of education and lack of working capital. 44. Niger has long promoted gender equality and sought to eradicate discrimination against women. The National Gender Policy has existed since 2008 and was revised in 2018. By 2027, it aims “to build, with all the stakeholders, a country without discrimination, where men and women, girls and boys have the same opportunities to participate in its development and enjoy the benefits of its growth,� backed by a ten-year action plan (Republic of Niger 2020a). Girls’ education is also one of the government’s major priorities to close the gender gaps in primary and secondary education enrollment by 2026. The Niger Gender Initiative was established to create a social, legal, institutional, and political environment conducive to gender equity and equality. Gender units have been created within many ministries, and the National Observatory for the Advancement of Women was established. In agriculture, one of the guiding principles of 3NI is to consider gender in all planned strategies and actions. However, these initiatives have not been fully implemented. 2.4.2. Building resilience and adaptation to climate change 45. Extreme weather events, including droughts and intense floods, and the low inherent endowment undermine the performance of Niger’s agricultural sector. Niger’s climate is primarily hot, dry, and characterized by unpredictable, low rainfall, limiting crop and livestock yield. While large surface and groundwater reserves could be harnessed for irrigation, inadequate planning, limited capital, and low technical capacity impede such development. The frequency of severe weather extremes, such as droughts and floods, further undermines the sector's performance. Floods, once viewed as beneficial for bumper harvests, are causing extensive crop loss, livestock death, damaging infrastructure, and displacing rural populations. Additionally, two-thirds of the country's land is desert or degraded and unsuitable for agriculture. 46. Rising temperatures, associated with larger inter and intra-annual variability in rainfall, will negatively impact Niger’s largely rain-fed agriculture. There will likely be increasing water and wind erosion, and soil fertility could be further degraded. Using the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT), an IFPRI study (2015) projects (a) a decline in yields due to changes in rainfall patterns; (b) a decline in cropped areas due to changes in land suitability; (c) a gradual decrease in the areas suitable for producing a variety of crops, thus affecting the potential for diversification and multiple cropping; and (d) a negative impact on livestock production due to a decrease in the area and quality of rangelands and pastures. CSA and other adaptation practices 47. Urgent action is necessary to limit future climate change magnitude and promote a faster adaptation of current farming practices. Since the early 1980s, Niger has taken important measures to combat desertification and soil degradation and improve the resilience of rain-fed agriculture. It is estimated that at least 2 million hectares of community tree plantations have been established, and more than 5 million hectares of private land have benefited from FMNR. Several CSA technologies are also promoted, including (a) drought-tolerant/resistant crop/livestock varieties; (b) shifts in sowing/planting dates, and crop rotation; and (c) various aspects of conservation agriculture, e.g., integrated soil fertility management (e.g., mulching, minimum or no tillage, crop rotation, mineral fertilizer, composting, etc.), water harvesting (e.g., contour stone bunds, half-moons, water spreading bunds, and weirs) and 23There are women involved in regional trade along the corridors connecting Niger to neighboring regional ports in Nigeria, Benin, Togo, and Ghana, but they are generally urban women. 16 agroforestry. Most of these CSA technologies are promoted by the SPN2A and 3NI. 48. However, despite the demonstrated benefits of these CSA technologies, their uptake is low and slow. Many of the widely adopted CSA practices are those of localized water capture and mostly derive from adapting traditional strategies for coping with an adverse environment, which require little or no inputs except labor. The uptake of more sophisticated agronomic practices has been low due to several barriers. Some of these barriers are general constraints to sustainable agricultural growth at large, such as (a) lack of access to input and output markets that limit the incentives to increase production; (b) lack of land tenure security; (c) households’ limited resources; (d) non-availability of the necessary inputs (improved seeds, seedlings);24 (e) farmers’ limited technical knowledge and implementation know-how; and (f) the lack of access to critical services such as extension or credit. Lifting these constraints will be key to successfully implementing the GoN’s strategy for climate adaptation in the agricultural sector. 49. Given the limited capacity of both farmers and government services, priority should be given to scaling up simple, low-cost sustainable land and water management practices that meet the following criteria: (a) potential to mitigate climate risks, i.e., to reduce yield losses and volatility; (b) cost- effectiveness; (c) minimal institutional support requirements, those that can be initiated largely by farmers themselves; and (d) potential co-benefits such as reducing socio-economic or gender inequalities, or creating new market opportunities. Adaptive practices that seem particularly effective include integrated soil fertility management, agroforestry, and FMNR. Box 1: Farmer-Managed Natural Regeneration (FMNR) In the 1980s, the GoN massively invested in tree plantations, particularly, fuelwood plantations of exotic tree species like eucalyptus. Some 60 million trees were planted over a 10-year period. These centrally managed reforestation programs had a high cost—over US$1,000 per hectare, plus annual maintenance costs—and local people were rarely consulted. Farmers and herders also often lost their land. As a result, less than 20 percent of the trees survived due to the lack of maintenance and participation by local communities. By the early 1980s, the Maradi Integrated Development Project (MIDP) pioneered a new, low- cost approach that encouraged farmers to regenerate the “underground forests� of dormant stumps left on their fields and manage these trees to produce fuelwood and fodder. This approach, known as FMNR and often referred to as agro-forestry parklands, was widely adopted as it also improved crop yields by reducing wind and water erosion and increased soil fertility through leaf litter, livestock manure, and nitrogen fixation. FMNR can be implemented even by resource-poor farmers and its rapid benefits to crop yields and income make it self-scaling. FMNR’s success encouraged the GoN to enact a series of sector-specific policies, laws, and regulations that transferred state ownership of all farmland trees to farmers. Forty years later, FMNR covers over 7 million hectares of land in Niger. 50. Specific reforms/actions will be required to support adopting adaptation measures and improve agriculture performance in the medium to longer term. These include the following: • Implementing reforms to address the abovementioned constraints to agricultural investments, including ensuring land and water security rights and improving farmers’ access to the necessary inputs and financial services. In particular, adopting CSA technologies frequently involves up-front investments that pay off only over several years, requiring appropriate financial support through targeted subsidies and/or credit. • Strengthening dedicated applied research program on CSA to produce improved plant and livestock materials that are resilient and tolerant to climate change and technologies well adapted to farmers’ capacities and constraints. 24Less than 6 percent of cereal farmers have now access to drought-tolerant, short-maturing seed varieties. Despite the GoN’s efforts to invest in research and development of improved varieties, farmers can hardly afford them. 17 • Improving the capacity of agricultural extension services to raise awareness of risk-averse producers on relevant CSA technologies and implementing a dedicated program of demonstration sites/centers to pilot and scale up climate-resilient technologies in different agro-climatic settings. • Providing incentives for tree planting and other land management practices with large off-farm benefits that their direct implementors cannot fully appropriate.25 This points to a need to provide cost-effective and targeted incentives, for example, payments for ecosystem services, for rewarding farmers who invest in such practices. • Integration of risk transfer mechanisms in adaptation strategies to reduce climatic risk to producers. This can be done through appropriate instruments, such as insurance, addressing climate risks at various levels, from disasters of national scale to events affecting a limited number of individual producers. Niger has several disaster risk financing instruments in place (see next section).26 • Small-scale mechanization promotes adaptation to climate change and increases farm profits through reduced labor costs. Adaptation to climate change requires timely farm operations, especially in the context of planting time when the rains come. Mechanization along the agriculture value chain enables timely farm operations and can reduce labor costs, thus promoting adaptation to climate change and raising arm incomes. 2.4.3. Managing shocks and conflicts to foster agricultural production 51. Agricultural producers in Niger face several risks, including droughts, floods, crop pests, livestock disease outbreaks, and locust invasions. Acute shocks, such as severe food production shortfalls or price increases, can decimate household livelihoods. Nigerien smallholder farmers traditionally employ strategies to mitigate these risks, including intercropping to cope with climatic fluctuations and focusing on food crop production for home consumption to guard against price risks. Many poorer agricultural households also supplement their income through seasonal labor hire or temporary migration to regions offering seasonal employment opportunities. Nonetheless, these strategies struggle against grave and widespread events. In such situations, households often ask for assistance from friends or family, reduce food consumption and other costs like school expenses, or sell assets like livestock. However, these coping mechanisms result in serious, long-term negative impacts. When coping becomes impossible, households may permanently migrate to cities. 25 One of the reasons for low adoption of soil and water management practices is that, on average, only 46 percent of the investment in rehabilitation of degraded lands accrues on-site and the remaining benefits are off farm. 26 Niger has safety net programs and is also a member of the African Risk Capacity (ARC) and has been intermittently purchasing ARC’s drought insurance. 18 Box 2. National Food Crisis Prevention and Management Mechanism (Dispositif National de Prevention et de Gestion des Crises Alimentaires; DNPGCCA) The DNPGCCA has three units: • The Early Warning Coordination Unit, which collects, processes, and analyzes data about food production/availability and nutritional issues. At the decentralized level, it relies on branches at the regional and departmental levels (the Regional and Sub-Regional Committees for the Prevention and Management of Disasters and Food Crises). It also relies on various information systems, in particular on Information System on Agricultural Markets, Information System on Livestock Markets, and Harvest Forecasting and Estimation Survey of National Statistical Institute, which collects, analyzes, and disseminates data on the changes in rainfall; • The Food Crisis Unit; • Social Safety Net Unit implementing safety net programs including cash and food for work during the dry season and food or monetary transfer programs. The DNPGCCA has several intervention tools, including the National Security Stock that allows it to carry out targeted free distributions of cereals, and the Emergency Stock. Another of its tools, the Strategic Food Reserve, allows it to sell cereals at moderate prices for households that are moderately food insecure or distribute fortified flour to prevent malnutrition. Other tools include Cash for Work operations, the distribution of seeds, the sale of livestock feed at moderate prices and support for school meals. DNPGCCA’s activities are funded by the national budget, bilateral sources, and a Common Donor Fund (Fonds Commun des Donateurs). 52. Niger has progressively developed a comprehensive disaster risk management (DRM) framework to address recurring severe crises. The GoN’s DRM strategy is framed by its Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) Strategy 2015–2030, and the National Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction (NP-DRR) is responsible for coordination, analysis, and advice on DRR issues. The National Food Crisis Prevention and Management Mechanism (DNPGCCA), attached to the Prime Minister's Office, is the government’s main instrument for managing food crises. The DNPGCCA has demonstrated its effectiveness but regularly faces severe financial problems; the average cost of a drought-related emergency can amount to nearly US$100 million, while that of a large, 1-in-5-year drought reaches almost US$200 million. As such, the GoN must develop a clear disaster risk financing strategy to better quantify and prioritize its risks and combine different financing instruments according to the nature of the identified risks. To this end, the World Bank is supporting the GoN to prepare a Food Security Crisis Preparedness Plan (FSCPP). The FSCPP is a living national and operational plan that explains how crisis risks are actively monitored and identified in the country. It details step-by-step protocols for scaling up early action across government, humanitarian, and development partners to prevent and mitigate future food security and nutrition crises. 53. DNPGCCA is an emergency response mechanism. There is a need to improve both ex-ante risk mitigation and ex-post recovery assistance to help affected households resume a sustainable development path. With World Bank assistance, the 3NI has developed a specific agricultural risk management operational action plan (Plan d’Action pour la Gestion des Risques Agricoles au Niger (PAGRA))(World Bank and HCI3N 2014). PAGRA includes risk mitigation and adaptation measures addressing the major risks weighing on the agricultural sector and provides a comprehensive framework for a transition of GoN’s food security strategy from a purely emergency perspective to a longer-term food security and nutrition strategy. PAGRA’s total cost has been estimated at US$7.9 billion for 2014–2023. Its adequate financing should receive a high priority. 54. The saturation of rural space has escalated conflicts related to access to natural resources between farmers and between farmers and herders.27 In the southern zone, strong population growth is causing the merchandizing and individual appropriation of agricultural land. Land pressures are causing 27 Some66 percent of the conflicts happen between farmers and herders, whereas 24 percent are among farmers, 4 percent among herders, and 6 percent between other groups (FAO 2021a). 19 shifts within families and excluding vulnerable groups, such as women and youth, from land access, prompting landless peasants to migrate to pastoral areas in the north. Consequently, these northern areas, overrun by expanding cultivated land, limit herders' access to pasture and water, obstructing mobility of their herds. 55. Addressing structural problems, such as inequality and vulnerability of rural livelihoods, can reduce conflicts and their impacts on long-term economic growth. The government’s Strategy for the Security and Development of the Sahelo-Saharan Zones of Niger (SDS Sahel-Niger 2012), is built along these lines. The intervention encompasses five areas: (a) enhancing the security of goods and people; (b) improving people's access to economic opportunities; (c) bettering the population's access to basic social services; (d) bolstering local and community governance; and (e) integrating returnees from neighboring countries. This strategy's implementation should prioritize enhancing infrastructure, productive investments, and social service delivery in neglected and vulnerable zones and climate-proofing agriculture by promoting CSA, irrigation development, and sustainable land and water management practices for climate change adaptation. It should also prioritize executing a new rural land policy to ensure fair access to land and water resources for all rural dwellers and to bolster local conflict resolution measures. 56. The Rural Code (1993) is a significant attempt to address conflicts and fragility. Its main objectives include providing land tenure security for all rural actors and preventing conflicts by ensuring equitable access to natural resources to their different users. To do so, it prescribes the preparation and enforcement of the regional Land Development Plan (Schémas D’aménagement Foncier; SAF), which delimitates the areas allocated to various rural activities (agriculture, livestock, protected areas). Its implementation relies on national, regional, and local land commissions responsible for recording land transactions, delivering various land certificates, i.e., formal rental contracts, certificates of customary ownership, and land titles, and arbitrating land disputes. The review of 20 years of implementation of the Rural Code (SP/CNCR 2013) in 2013 found that the Rural Code’s impact had been below expectations and that several weaknesses needed to be corrected, including the following: • The Rural Code was a collection of sectoral texts prepared independently and was not an internally coherent document. It contains contradictions between sectoral texts and sometimes between these and the central objectives of the Code. • Significant issues, like the legal status and access rights to public-authority-managed land, receive inadequate attention. Specific problems include cases where land has benefited from public investments, such as large, irrigated areas or restored “community land�. Here, usage rights are often unclear, leading to private appropriation, which can gravely impact vulnerable populations by depriving them of crucial resources. • The Rural Code's institutional framework is too intricate, often with under-resourced institutions struggling to fulfill their roles. Unchecked activities from departmental and local Communal Forestry Offices (COFOs) have led to significant governance problems. The formal recognition of land rights was underused in providing security to rural operators, and its utilization lacked transparency. • While regional land development plans (SAFs) exist, they are unmonitored and often not enforced. Due to population increases and insufficient oversight, many areas deviate from their allotted roles. 57. Following the General States of Rural Land assembly in February 2018, a new Rural Land Policy was adopted in 2019 to address these issues, along with an operational action plan (PA-PFR) 2021–2027. The PA-PFR has four components: (a) strengthening the institutional and legal framework; (b) strengthening the capacities of the institutions concerned at all levels; (c) eliminating land grabbing and ensuring adequate and secure access of all actors to land and water resources; and (d) clarifying the ownership and management of state-owned land. The total cost of the 2021–2027 action plan is estimated 20 at 16.7 billion CFAF (US$28 million) to be financed through the national budget and development partners. In the long term, the Rural Land Strategy will be financed through a national fund yet to be established. The 2021–2027 action plan includes a feasibility study for establishing this fund. 58. A critical issue will be to enforce a much-improved management of pastoral land. The Pastoral Law (Republic of Niger 2010) (a) reaffirms key principles such as the northern limit of rain-fed cultivation and the herders’ right to mobility; (b) clarifies the procedures for the delimitation and protection of pastoral enclaves, passage corridors, water points, and livestock grazing areas; and (c) recognizes that herders have specific rights within their “pastoral homesteads� recognized by custom and where they stay for a large part of the year. It also specifies that the state cannot grant a private concession in a pastoral zone if this decision will likely hinder pastoral mobility. However, many obstacles limit the effective application of these dispositions: growing monetization and private appropriation of land, fodder, and water resources, poor governance at the local level, and insecurity that affects many rural areas.28 Efficiently implementing the Pastoral Law appears challenging, given the current and foreseeable context. Priorities are to reclaim and restore degraded rangelands, construct firewalls, and establish animal corridors to mitigate clashes between farmers and pastoralists. A long-term solution could involve supporting the peaceful integration of migrating herders into mixed crop-livestock systems and encouraging more herders to pursue non- agricultural ventures. 28 Sincethe end of the armed rebellion movements of the 1990s and 2000s, the state has largely abandoned the conflict- affected areas amid the repeated demand from ex-rebels for the departure of the forces of defense and security. 21 Chapter 3: The Government’s Agriculture Development Strategy 3.1. The 3N Initiative 59. Cognizant of the need for a concerted multifaceted approach to tackle the agri-food system challenges, the GoN launched the 3NI in 2012. The initiative is a cross-sectoral blueprint to improve crop, livestock, and forest productivity while augmenting the resilience of farmers and herders to climate change and food insecurity. The 3NI is a comprehensive framework that unifies key aspects of the GoN's development strategy for agriculture, including economic growth, food security, environmental sustainability, and crisis management. It is aligned with the Comprehensive African Agricultural Development Program (CAADP) and the Economic Community of West African States’ (ECOWAS) and the West African Economic and Monetary Union’s (WAMEU) Common Agricultural Policies. It is positioned at the highest level within the President's Office. It is implemented through a series of five-year operational action plans that frame the strategies and programs of various ministries and public institutions related to sustainable agricultural development and food and nutrition security in Niger. The 3NI is structured in five strategic axes: (a) increasing and diversification of agro-sylvo-pastoral and halieutic productions; (b) regular supply of rural and urban markets with agricultural and agri-food products; (c) improving the resilience of the populations of Niger in the face of food crises and natural disasters; (d) improving the nutritional status of the populations of Niger; and (e) animation and coordination of the initiative. The first action plan was approved in 2012 to accelerate the implementation of the National Agricultural Investment Plan (PNIA) 2011–2015.29 Two subsequent action plans were adopted for 2016–2021 to support the Economic and Social Development Plan (PDES) 2017–2021 and 2021–2026, respectively. The estimated budgets of these action plans provide the basis for preparing the agricultural public expenditure budgets. 60. A detailed assessment of the implementation and impact of the first two five-year operational action plans of the 3NI was carried out in 2021 (Republic of Niger and HCI3N 2021). The assessment underlined 3NI’s strong political support, with more than 2,500 billion CFAF effectively mobilized for its implementation (99 percent of the forecasts), i.e., nearly 300 billion CFAF annually. It also clearly showed that its actions positively impacted the sector’s performance: the average agricultural GDP growth rate was 5.6 percent per year over the ten-year period; although below the 3NI’s target of 6.9 percent per year, this rate nevertheless allowed an annual per capita GDP growth of approximately 2.6 percent. In addition to driving public expenditures in the sector, the 3NI has undertaken considerable analytical work that has strongly influenced GoN agricultural policies. For instance, in 2017, the High Commission for 3NI initiated a unifying financing mechanism, namely the Investment Fund for Food and Nutritional Security (FISAN), with three facilities: Facility 1: Support for agricultural financing, which supports private investments through credit and other instruments; Facility 2: Financing of structuring agricultural investments for supporting infrastructure and other structures of a public and non-profit nature; and Facility 3: Financing of agricultural advice, applied agronomic research and capacity building. 61. The new 3NI’s Five-Year Plan (2021–2026) operationalizes the agricultural component of the GoN’s Strategy for Sustainable Development and Inclusive Growth (SDDCI, Niger 2035) and Economic and Social Development Plan 2021–2026. Its total cost is 2,700 billion FCFA, a 70 percent increase over the previous plan (1,600 billion FCFA). The development of the irrigated sector remains a key priority, receiving nearly 30 percent of the plan’s total budget, approximately 800 billion FCFA. It also gives greater emphasis to the sustainable management of natural resources, the development of the livestock sector, marketing infrastructure, and strengthening priority value chains and key actors’ capacity, particularly producer associations. Finally, the plan gives a central role to improving the business environment for the greater 29 Prepared and approved in 2011 within the New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD). 22 mobilization of the private sector. 3.2. GoN’ initiatives to build a climate-resilient and low-carbon agriculture 62. Agriculture is not just a victim of climate change but also a key driver. The AFOLU sector is responsible for around 85 percent of the country’s total emissions, followed by the energy sector at 10 percent. Agricultural emissions have been fueled by the expansion of cultivated areas to the detriment of forest formations, livestock production, and irrigation expansion. About 65 percent of the total emissions are linked to the agricultural sector, largely in the form of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (NO2) emissions from the livestock sector (90 percent) and, to a smaller extent, from irrigated crop production. Tackling livestock emissions should be a priority. According to Niger’s 2015 and 2021 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), the country’s future emissions will quickly increase unless strong mitigation and adaptation measures are taken. According to the 2021 NDC, AFOLU emissions would more than quadruple from 30,000 kilotons of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2020 to close to 110,000 kilotons in 2030 (Republic of Niger 2021b). In the 2021 updated NDC, Niger has committed to reduce its total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 12.5 percent by 2030 under the unconditional financing scenario and by close to 35 percent under the conditional scenario. Of this total, 90 percent of the gains are expected from the AFOLU sector.30 63. The GoN has a longstanding commitment to address climate change. It ratified the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1995 and the Kyoto Protocol in 2004.31 Climate change mitigation and adaptation are embedded into the GoN’s overall Strategy for Sustainable Development and Inclusive Growth Niger 2035 (SDDCI 2035), and many specific strategies are addressing the issue.32 The National Environmental Council for Sustainable Development (CNEDD), the national focal point of the UNFCCC, is responsible for coordinating all policies, strategies, and initiatives concerning environmental and sustainable development. Niger is committed to achieving neutrality in land degradation in the agricultural sector by 2030, reducing land degraded area by 9 percent to 5 percent and increasing the plant cover by a net gain of 17 to 19 percent. The GoN’s strategy to reduce AFOLU emissions is presented in its Strategy and National Plan for Adaptation to Climate Change in the Agricultural Sector (SPN2A 2020–2025). Its specific activities are included in the 3NI, which frames and coordinates the activities under the National Agricultural Investment Plan.33 The SPN2A strongly focuses on expanding irrigated areas through large and small-scale irrigation perimeters and adopting CSA practices to enhance the resilience of rain-fed agriculture. 64. Niger’s NDC estimates the total cost of the mitigation and adaptation investments at US$2.6 billion (unconditional) and US$ 9.9 billion (conditional) from 2021–30 (World Bank 2022b). Around 75 percent of the total funding, equating to US$7.5 billion, would need to be procured from Niger’s partners in development or new financiers. Given the AFOLU sector’s GHG impact and its prominence in Niger’s economy, roughly a third of the total, or US$3.3 billion, could be allocated to this sector. Since the funds from the GoN and public development partners will not suffice, Niger will need to attract additional 30 By 2030 under BAU, the AFOLU sector would have unconditional reductions of 12.57 percent, and conditional reductions of 22.75 percent. 31 Niger is also a party to three post-Rio conventions (Convention on Climate Change, Biological Diversity, and Combat Desertification). It is a stakeholder in SDG 15.3 (neutrality in terms of land degradation), the Great Green Wall for the Sahara and the Sahel Initiative (IGGWSS), and the African Land Restoration Initiative (AFRI100), with a national goal of restoring one million hectares during 2015–30. 32 For example, the National Strategic Action Plan for Climate Change and Vulnerability (NSAPCCV 2003) and the National Adaptation Programs of Action (NAPA 2006) (Republic of Niger 2003; 2006); the Strategic Programme for Climate Resilience (SPCR 2010) (Climate Investment Fund 2010); the National Policy Document on Climate Change (NPCC) (UNDP, Japan ODA, and Republic of Niger 2012); the report (Ministry of Agriculture 2010); the SPN2A (Republic of Niger 2020b), among others. 33 They have an estimated cost of about US$2.0 billion over the 5-year period (US$400 million per year), to be financed largely from external sources, i.e., donors and/or climate finance initiatives such as the Green Climate Fund. 23 financing from climate funds and the private sector and use their existing resources more effectively. A crucial first step is incorporating climate considerations into existing planning and budgeting. This is particularly the case in the agricultural sector where climate issues, as clearly identified in PAGRA 2014– 2023 and the National Strategy and Plan for Climate Change Adaptation in the Agricultural Sector (Stratégie et Plan National d’Adaptation Face aux Changements Climatiques dans le Secteur Agricole; SPN2A), should be better integrated into and 3NI’s action plans. 65. One of Niger’s major climate mitigation and adaptation initiatives is the land restoration effort under the Great Green Wall (GGW) Initiative, launched in 2011. The initiative covers over 47 million hectares between the 100-millimeter isohyet in the north and the 500-millimeter isohyet in the south, approximately one-third of the country’s territory. This initiative spans all regions across 228 municipalities, aiming to tackle desertification, conserve biodiversity, and adapt agro-sylvo-pastoral systems to climate change. It involves activities such as degraded forest rehabilitation, tree planting, land and riverbank restoration, soil and water management, agroforestry, and developing fruit orchards, multipurpose gardens, and ponds (figure 14). These features should be incorporated into local communities' development plans and driven by their initiatives. This program requires very large and coordinated funding (1,420 billion CFAF, 95 billion FCFA per year, for the period 2015 to 2030) and is financed by the GoN and its main Partners, the FAO, EU, UNDP, Global Environment Facility (GEF), IFAD, AfDB, and World Bank. The GGW program's sustainability and ecological benefits are crucial for future economic growth, food security, Figure 14. Aerial view of the Great Green Wall in Niger and poverty alleviation. 66. Although mobilizing the private sector is necessary, it will be difficult to mobilize significant financing from private operators in the short to medium term. There are few large enough investors, and the national financial institutions, including the Agricultural Bank of Niger (Banque Agricole du Niger, BAGRI), are reluctant to provide funding for investments often seen as risky. Large investors lack the technical knowledge and the appropriate instruments and long-term resources, particularly highly concessional funds, to scale up climate finance for local private investments. Boosting green investment is crucial to secure more private capital in combating climate change. Public intervention is required to address current market failures and fortify investors, such as private firms, cooperatives, and financial institutions. Both entities should be adequately supported with relevant incentives like tax benefits, matching grants, and incentives, e.g., fiscal incentives, matching grants, and credit guarantees. Several international and bilateral donors are already partnering with commercial financial institutions to support green finance for infrastructure projects and smaller investments in small-to-medium enterprises (SMEs). However, the most promising financing sources will be the main providers of climate financing, such as the Green Climate Fund,34 Adaptation Fund for least developed countries (LDCs), Strategic Climate Funds (SCF), GEF Small Grants Program, and others. Some of these institutions, such as the Green Climate Fund (GCF) 34 The GCF finances eight projects in Niger, including Inclusive Green Financing for Climate Resilient and Low Emission Smallholder Agriculture (2019), in collaboration with IFAD, which supports the participation of the private sector by engaging with commercial banks and MFIs. 24 and GEF, are already active in Niger, and mobilizing more support from these sources should be a priority. 3.3. Agricultural public expenditures35 67. Total public expenditures in Niger have accounted for an average of 14.7 percent of its GDP during 2014–21. This is lower than in other African countries: the average is 24 percent during the same period.36 Agriculture was allotted 9 percent of the total public expenditures compared to 20 percent for education, 14 percent for defense and security, and 7 percent for health. High external debt, fluctuating mining and oil revenues, limited tax collection capacity, and escalating security risks pressure expenditures, diverting significant resources to security-related costs, and straining funds for other sectors. 68. Since 2012, public expenditures in agriculture, framed by the five-year action plans of the 3NI, target the “Food and Nutritional Security and Sustainable Agricultural Development (SANAD)� sector. The agriculture public expenditures—9 percent of the total public expenditure during 2014–21—suggest that Niger nearly achieved the CAADP commitment to allot 10 percent of the total national budget annually for agriculture. The Agriculture Orientation Index of Niger's public expenditures37 has been consistently high at around 0.4, one of the highest in Sub-Saharan Africa, confirming agricultural development as a high priority for the GoN.38 69. Budgetary support to the SANAD sector is dispersed over many institutions. Activities under the 3NI and associated action plans are implemented by several ministries and related public institutions— OPVN, Central Supply of Agricultural Inputs and Materials (CAIMA), Rural Code, INRAN, ONAHA, AFMA— as well as by the office of the Prime Minister and the Presidency in the case of the high commission for 3NI. This makes it difficult to assess the consolidated budget allocated to agricultural production, livestock production, irrigation development, among others. 70. Although it varies year-to-year, Niger allocates 60–80 percent of its agricultural budgets to investments, e.g., irrigation infrastructure, roads, or village platforms. This is higher than the average of 24 percent in Sub-Saharan Africa during the same period. The financing of investments is largely done through externally financed projects and faces annual variations due to their availability and the volatility of domestic resources. During 2014–20, the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock (MAGEL) and the Office of the President, implementing the Millennium Challenge Account (MCA) and Kandadji, received 47 percent and 22 percent of the SANAD sector allocations respectively, for aggregated public expenditures for agriculture and livestock development. The allocations were estimated at around 70 percent of total expenditures for the SANAD sector. Of this, the agricultural sector received around 60 percent, with investments in irrigation accounting for about 25 percent of total expenditures during 2014–20 (figure 15). The livestock sector, including the allocations in favor of pastoral hydraulics, received around 10 percent, which is relatively low given that it contributes about a third of the agriculture GDP. 35 This section is based on public expenditure reviews by the World Bank (2021a), 3NI in 2018, 2021, and 2022 (2022), and ROPPA/ECDM (2009). 36 Cote d’Ivoire: 17.2 percent; Mali: 19.8 percent; Kenya: 25.6 percent. 37 Agriculture’s share of GoN expenditures divided by agriculture’s share of GDP. 38 The average AOI for Sub-Saharan Africa was around 0.23 in 2019. 25 71. Agricultural research received less than 0.1 percent of the total expenditures, or around 2 billion FCFA per year. This sum is inadequate to support the projected productivity increases and the need to address the impact of climate change. To address these issues and fulfill the GoN’s commitment under the Malabo declaration,39 Niger should have devoted at least ten times that amount, around 20 billion FCFA per year. 72. External resources represent a high share of Niger’s total public expenditures. The proportion of external funding for total Figure 15. Budgetary allocations to the SANAD sector, 2014–20 agricultural public expenditure in Niger surged from 50 percent in 2016 to nearly 80 percent in 2020. Simultaneously, national financing markedly decreased to approximately 20 percent in 2020. When considering domestic resources only, agriculture receives a mere 5 percent of total expenditure, significantly below the Malabo commitment. This poses a risk as external funding fluctuates and may not align with governmental sector priorities. 73. Actual execution of budgetary allocations has been low, and execution of activities is rarely decentralized. From 2014–20, budget execution averaged roughly 50 percent, with a low of 25 percent in 2016, greatly improving to 85 percent in 2020. Generally, the actual undertaking of activities funded by domestic resources, mainly salaries and other current expenses, outpaced those financed through external resources, such as projects. Factors causing low execution include a sizable gap between approved and actual budgets, weak capacity of public institutions to implement actions, particularly investments, and complex procurement and disbursement procedures. From 2014–20, under 5 percent of the total SANAD budget and a mere 2 percent of MAGEL’s budget were decentralized at the regional level. 39 The Malabo commitment requires countries to devote 1 percent of their agricultural GDP to research. 26 Chapter 4: What Does it Take to Transform the Agri-food System? 74. Traditional production systems are increasingly unable to enhance or maintain their productivity and supply the growing demand from the domestic market. The cultivated lands in Niger have expanded to 17 million hectares, even extending to the pastoral zones in the north. Accelerating land use changes and unsustainable practices are trapping the country in a vicious cycle of soil depletion, fertility loss, decreased crop yields, and environmental degradation. This growing issue is causing Niger to struggle to meet its population's food demand. Estimates suggest that the demand for core cereals (millet, sorghum, and rice) may reach 9 million tons by 2030 and 18 million tons by 2050. However, under a Business-as- Usual scenario, where the environment continues to degrade and farmlands keep fragmenting, based on an average 2.5 percent yearly increase, cereal production could only reach 7 million tons by 2030 and 11.5 million tons by 2050. In this scenario, Niger's cereal deficit could expand to unmanageable levels: 2 million tons by 2030, or a fifth of local demand, and 6.5 million tons by 2050, or a third of local demand. Hence, a significant challenge for Niger is transforming small, underequipped family farms into a more modern and productive agricultural sector. This way, agriculture can be vital to Niger's economic and social development. 75. The key challenge for Niger will be to transform a sector dominated by small, decapitalized family farms into a more modern and productive sector. However, the structural transformation of the agricultural sector has hardly started. To date, traditional, extensive agriculture has maintained its sectoral dominance. This extensive and low-productivity farming system is holding back structural change. There has, however, been a modest growth in Total Factor Productivity (TFP) from 2000–20, reflecting the beginnings of intensification in the most favorable zones in the south of the country and the recent fast development of irrigated areas (USDA 2022). With the growth in cultivated areas now being limited, sustained increases in TFP will be needed to ensure future strong agricultural growth. If one assumes that the future overall annual growth of traditional factors of production (land, labor, livestock) may be around 3.0 percent, TFP growth would need to be around 3 percent annually to reach the government’s objective of a 6 percent annual agricultural growth rate. Sustainably boosting TFP requires (a) enhanced utilization of non-land and non-labor production factors such as equipment and inputs for improved technical efficiency, and (b) implementing innovative, superior technologies for long-term productivity growth. 4.1. Need for a comprehensive but targeted strategy 76. The modernization of the agricultural sector will require a comprehensive and carefully targeted strategy. The strategy should aim to boost agricultural productivity through investments in irrigation, agricultural research, promoting CSA technologies, and improving producers’ access to key services like advice and credit. It should integrate farmers into markets (national, regional, international) through improving transport and marketing infrastructure, better access to market information, structuring nascent agricultural value chains, and improving sanitary and quality control. By mobilizing private investments and by promoting the synergies between family farms and larger “agricultural businesses�, the strategy can create markets linkages for smallholders. The strategy should also aim to improve land tenure security and ensure equitable access to water resources, strengthening the capacities/skills of agricultural producers through better education and agricultural vocational training. Doing so will allow them to respond better to opportunities/changes in the external environment and use resources more effectively. 77. Given the GoN’s limited capacity, a targeted and phased approach will be necessary to jump- start this agricultural transformation. The first phase would focus on the most productive areas and a 27 limited number of crop and livestock value chains that offer promising growth and poverty alleviation.40 • Geographical targeting focuses on areas with high connectivity with major consumption centers and high agricultural potential. This would include the development of irrigation, peri-urban agriculture, and rain-fed agriculture in areas reasonably productive and close to markets such as those in the southern agricultural belt, including Dosso, Tillabery, Maradi, and Zinder (see figure 18 below). • Critical value chains selected through a transparent arbitrage between desirability and feasibility: Desirability examines the impact on growth (national, regional, or international demand, domestic value addition), food security, and employment. Feasibility examines the value chains most attractive to private investors regarding logistics/access to markets, competitiveness, business environment, etc. In addition, resilience to climate change and existing organized/nascent value-chain organizations are critical success factors. • Tailored government interventions, well-adjusted to the needs of specific value chains and producers, e.g., provision of inputs and access to finance, capacity building, among others. 78. There is a consensus about the most strategic agricultural value chains that should be actively supported (figure 16). Onion (horticultural crops), cowpeas, sesame, moringa, rice, meat, dairy, eggs, and Figure 16. Attractiveness and desirability of agricultural value chains in Niger Source: Creating Markets in Niger; IFC June 2022. leather work are selected as key commodities.41 Millet is the main staple for most Nigerien households and is a climate-smart, drought-tolerant crop adapted to poor soils. Cowpea is a key crop both for food security and as a cash crop. Niger has agro-climatic conditions favorable to various dry climate products like sesame, gum arabic, tiger nuts and moringa. The livestock value chain—meat, milk, and hides/skins—also plays a 40 Morocco, for example, focused on seven value chains before expanding to nine and six geographical areas. Ethiopia’s initial agricultural transformation plans focused on three value chains and five geographical areas. 41 See Republic of Niger, Prime Minister’s Office 2023; FAO 2021b; USAID 2019. 28 critical role in family income, intensification/soil fertility in mixed farming systems and asset savings. The livestock value chain also has clear export and inclusive job creation potential for women and youth. 79. Finally, in the longer term, many marginal producers and rural young people will exit the agricultural sector. Fostering job creation in various sectors, not only agriculture, is key as it will rely on a broader economic transformation. Agricultural intensification will bring opportunities for agro-dealers, enabling them to supply needed inputs and services. Rising urban demand can also open new, quality job opportunities across the whole value chain from storage to retail. Evidence from countries starting to transform their agricultural sectors shows that even though agricultural GDP and employment contributions decrease, the agri-food system expands.42 To enable the youth to benefit from these opportunities, vocational training, and non-agricultural income-generating activity programs are needed to provide them with the necessary skills and start-up capital. Supporting the development of small towns can also accelerate agricultural transformation. Small towns can serve as hubs of agricultural processing, development of food systems, and marketing, catalyzing local economic development and creating jobs for the labor released from the agriculture sector. 4.2. Sustaining strong productivity increases 4.2.1. Strengthening agricultural research 80. Niger has a reasonably good National Agricultural Research System, the SNRA. The National Agricultural Research Council (CNRA) coordinates the system, which is responsible for developing, coordinating, and monitoring the country’s agricultural research strategy and promoting cooperation with other national and international agricultural research institutions. The National Institute of Agronomic Research of Niger (INRAN) is the main agricultural research organization in the SNRA which also includes the Livestock Multiplication Centers (CMB), responsible for the generation and dissemination of animal production technologies43; four departments of the Abdou Moumouni University (UAM) in Niamey; as well as the Laboratory for Study and Research on Social Dynamics and Local Development (LASDEL) and the National Center for Solar Energy (CNES). Several international agricultural research institutions also have their headquarters or representations in Niger.44 INRAN accounts for around three-quarters of the national research capacity and two-thirds of agricultural R&D funding. It conducts its research programs in four regional agronomic research centers (CERRA). It has achieved notable successes in developing new technologies for sustainable agriculture practices (conservation agriculture, agroforestry, and soil and water conservation). It conducts training programs for farmers and extension workers on topics such as crop management, soil conservation, and CSA. 81. Agricultural research is critical to address the complex challenges facing Nigerien agriculture. Over the past few years, Niger’s agricultural research system has had difficulties attracting qualified researchers: there were 200 researchers in 2016 in equivalent full-time employment, 85 percent had MSc or PhD degrees, and more than half were over 50 years old.45 Also, total public agricultural R&D spending has been low. In 2016, R&D spending was 5.3 billion CFAF per year, representing only 0.32 percent of its agricultural GDP, well below the 1 percent target set by the FAO and the African Union (which would 42 Studiesfrom Ethiopia, Malawi, Mozambique, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia showed that the food system would create more jobs than the rest of the economy between 2010 and 2025. While shares of agriculture employment would decrease by 75–61 percent, jobs in the broader non-farm food system were projected to increase by 8–12 percent annually over the period (World Bank 2017). 43 CMB consists of seven secondary research centers spread throughout the country: five of these conduct research on cattle breeding, one on goats and another on sheep. Research activities focus mainly on genetic improvement and on cattle breeding. 44 AGRHYMET, ILRI and ICRISAT. 45 INRAN status has changed to a “scientific, cultural, and technical Agency (EPSCT)�, which gives it greater scientific, administrative, and financial autonomy. 29 correspond to around CFAF 15 billion per year). Even this low level of funding is heavily dependent on external sources, resulting in a volatile and unpredictable availability of resources incompatible with the long-term nature of agricultural research. The Investment Fund for Food and Nutritional Security (FISAN), created in 2017, will, in principle, be able to provide funding for applied research programs at the request of agricultural value-chain actors.46 FISAN’s Strategic Plan (2022–2026) (Republic of Niger 2021a) includes CFAF 8.9 billion (US$15 million) over 5 years (1.8 billion CFAF/US$3 million per year) for this purpose. Adopting an efficient and competitive system for eliciting and selecting priority applied research programs to be financed by FISAN should thus be a priority. However, this will not address the critical issue of providing stable, predictable long-term funding for strategic research, and options to do so, such as levies on mining exports or agricultural/rice imports, should be reviewed. 4.2.2. Strengthening agricultural extension 82. Niger's agricultural advisory system has undergone many changes over the years that have not yet resulted in an effective technology transfer to producers. Most producers do not have access to advisory services, apart from a few operating in large, irrigated perimeters or those benefiting from the support of a project.47 The public system, principally the main actor, is not functional and is hampered by very limited human and financial resources.48 The few resources available are poorly allocated, with a high concentration on personnel and budgets in the central and regional directorates of the Ministries to the detriment of front-line services, limiting the operations of field agents in the districts and municipalities. A few producer organizations are starting to provide agricultural advice to their members to produce cash crops, but their technical and financial capacities are limited. Also, the links with research are not functioning efficiently, weakening the transfer of relevant technologies. When available, agricultural advice remains dominated by broad technical issues, while the more advanced needs of commercial producers and economic or farm management advice are largely non-existent. Finally, there is no functional framework allowing the GoN to assume its strategic guidance and support for the activities of the many actors concerned, resulting in a lack of focus and a reduced impact of the interventions. 83. A new advisory support system—the National Agricultural Advisory System (SNCA)—was adopted in 2017, but its implementation has been slow. The new system calls for mobilizing various actors (public and private) to provide agricultural advice, coordinating and strengthening the advisory systems already operational. These include public organizations (ministries and ONAHA), professional organizations, NGOs, and private actors, such as GIE/advisory service groups, input distributors, veterinarians and veterinary pharmacies, agro-industrial companies, and dairy collectors. The state is supposed to intervene only for the following: • Providing strategic orientations and overall monitoring through a Strategic Orientation Committee of the Agricultural Council (COS/CA); • Ensuring the operational coordination of service providers by the newly created Agriculture Advisory Services Promotion Agency (APCA), which only intervenes in support functions (coordination, monitoring and evaluation); • Providing the necessary funding for the overall system. Public extension services will be provided to vulnerable producers and remote areas through the decentralized units of technical ministries. For its financing, the SNCA relies on the GoN budget to finance public agricultural advisory structures and on FISAN to finance sub-extension activities of producer 46The capacity/willingness of the private sector to co-fund agricultural research is however questionable. 47 It is estimated at around 1 adviser for 2000 agricultural households (in 2016. This ratio varies across regions and socio- professional categories. For example, female producers, breeders, and young people have less access to advice. 48 For instance, only 5 percent of the total agriculture spending in 2021 was allocated to extension services. 30 organizations and private actors through subsidies of up to 90 percent. 84. The SNCA is to be rolled out over 15 years, gradually reorienting the role of the GoN and transferring the responsibility for advice provision to private actors. In the first phase (2018–23), currently underway, the focus will be on developing regional diagnoses and regional action plans, strengthening agricultural/rural advice providers in each region, redeploying public service agents, and building their capacities. In the second phase (2024–29), the SNCA will be consolidated, and the role of private providers will be expanded, alongside the menu of advice, to cover a larger number of priority topics. Finally, in a third phase (2030–35), professional and private advisory systems having developed, there will be a near total withdrawal of front-line public services and a focus of public services on their sovereign functions: supervision, control of the use of subsidies and coordination of private advice providers. The new SNCA vision and strategy are sound, and their implementation should be a high priority. Effective implementation will, however, depend on strengthening the links with the national research system to propose a steady stream of relevant technologies, ensuring adequate and timely funding by FISAN, improving producers’ access to the necessary inputs and financial services, and collaborating with existing small and medium enterprises for last mile service delivery. 4.2.3. Strengthening value chains and producer organizations 85. Over 400,000 producer organizations operate in the agriculture sector. Many of these groups are members of the National Farmers’ Platform of Niger (PFPN), created in 1998. Although it has no hierarchical power over its members, the PFPN occupies a central place in the dynamics of the national cooperative movement. PFPN’s objective is to provide a framework to discuss the sector’s problems and how to address them, defend the producers’ interests, and influence agricultural and rural development policies. It brings together different organizations—grass-root associations, cooperatives, regional unions, and national federations—including the largest umbrella federations in the country. The platform collaborates closely with the Network of Chambers of Agriculture (RECA) to ensure an effective dialogue with the GoN. RECA comprises eight Regional Chambers (RCA), constituting the main interface between farmer organizations and public authorities. 86. The major national producer federations have a recognized legitimacy and experience.49 The GoN and various developmental projects have bolstered their progress, enabling them to contribute more to the agricultural sector progressively. Their regional or national associations are involved in advocacy, shaping public policies, offering multiple services to members, incorporating input distribution, storage, marketing, guarantees for credits, advisory assistance, information systems, among others. Some specialize in certain sectors like rice, onion, vegetables, or livestock/milk, while others support local social activities. These national umbrella organizations have provided the basis for establishing several consultative frameworks, such as the Collective of Pastoral Associations of Niger (CAPAN) and the emergence of agricultural interprofessions. There are currently four interprofessions: IFRN (rice), IFLVN (milk and meat), IFFLN (fruits and vegetables), and IFCN (cereals). The GoN provides the necessary legal framework50 and operational support through development projects. These interprofessions unite all value-chain players, encompassing both sizable and small-scale family farms. Their increased importance in the sector's development includes representing and protecting collective interests and defining and implementing operational rules for value-chain management, and mediating conflicts between actors. 87. However, much remains to be done to improve the effectiveness of the Nigerien producer organizations. Most national federation organizations have experienced rapid growth, both in terms of 49 These include the National Association of Onion Cooperatives (ANFO); the Association for the Revitalization of Livestock in Niger (AREN); the Federation of Unions of Rice Cooperatives (FUCOPRI); the Federation of Unions of Peasant Groups of Niger (FUGPN Mooriben); and the Federation of Market Gardening Cooperatives of Niger – FCMN Niya. 50 See (Republic of Niger 2018). 31 membership and the variety of activities they undertake, including sometimes the management of large commercial activities, in an increasingly complex social and economic environment. These entities cannot create financial resources, relying heavily on outside aid. Furthermore, the entities face numerous challenges: (a) most are too small (averaging less than 50 members) to function as commercial bodies; (b) leadership and membership often possess low literacy rates and insufficient administrative and managerial skills; and (c) lack of social control and poor governance further weaken them. Prioritizing the rise of a strong cooperative movement in the GoN’s agricultural development policy becomes evident in this context. Considering the low capacity of grassroots producer organizations, the predominant focus should be fortifying well-structured main national federations and similar interprofessions. These entities could provide a robust foundation for developing competitive and inclusive value chains. Prioritized development programs for these apex organizations should be prepared and focus on (a) building their human resources and organizational capacity; (b) improving their access to input/output markets and finance for working capital and investments; (c) strengthening their internal capacity to provide members up-to-date technical and management advice, in association with research institutions; and (d) developing their value-adding activities and ensuring that products meet the sanitary and quality standards required by domestic and regional markets. 4.2.4. Investing in irrigation development 88. Niger has always prioritized irrigation development, but climate change adds to the urgency of developing irrigation. Irrigation development has accelerated under the 3NI, as irrigated area increased from 94,733 hectares to 210,000 hectares during 2011–2020. A large potential still exists to expand irrigation, particularly from shallow aquifers.51 Irrigation has so far been developed along six main lines: medium and large irrigated perimeters (amenagements hydro-agricoles; AHA); off-season perimeters (perimetres de contre-saison; PCS); medium and large commercial irrigation; small private irrigation schemes (petite irrigation privée; PIP); runoff collection; and the development of pastoral water (hydraulique pastorale). 89. (i) Public irrigation perimeters (AHAs) are state financed and owned schemes with total water control. There are currently 85 AHAs covering a total area of around 16,000 hectares and involving around 40,000 producers. Most are intended for rice cultivation, and a few for polyculture in Tahoua region. AHAs performed well until the mid-1980s under public management. In 1982, the responsibility for their management was transferred to cooperatives under the supervision of the National Office for Hydro- Agricultural Development (ONAHA), and their performance deteriorated rapidly: reduced public funding prevented ONAHA from maintaining the basic infrastructure; serious governance issues arose in the management of cooperatives and an insufficient collection of water charges has prevented the proper funding of the perimeters’ operation and maintenance. Today, most existing AHAs need rehabilitation, and it is estimated that up to 20 percent of perimeters’ total area can no longer be irrigated. 90. It is expected that there will be further development of public irrigation perimeters. AHA offers a good anchor for developing and intensifying high-value-added value chains. The rehabilitation of existing AHAs would benefit from the sunk cost already made and preserve the livelihoods of many producers. The necessary reforms would include: (a) clear separation of maintenance and water management functions from agricultural production, with third-party professional management of operations and maintenance (O&M) and cooperatives re-centered on their agricultural objectives; (b) strict enforcement of O&M fee payment; (c) diversification of production in favor of high-value crops, which would increase both the economic output of AHAs and farmers’ incomes and ability to pay; and (d) a reform of the land tenure situation within AHAs, including the clarification of various land rights. In particular, the reform would 51Only 40 percent of the surface water potential (270,000 hectares) is currently mobilized. The potential for irrigation from groundwater resources—estimated at more than 10 million hectares, of which nearly 5 million are from shallow water—is hardly mobilized. 32 include the formalization of state ownership to clarify the GoN’s/ONAHA’s rights and control over AHAs and the improvement of producers’ security of tenure through the implementation of the recommendations of ONAHA’s detailed 2017 study on land tenure security on AHAs. The Kandadji project will establish a new large AHA of around 45,000 hectares as part of a multipurpose dam. The rehabilitation of existing AHAs and the establishment of new ones would be very costly52 and only justified if the same reforms are effectively implemented to address the institutional problems that have plagued their operations and productivity. 91. (ii) Dry season perimeters account for about 60,000 hectares. They are small perimeters with partial water control from shallow groundwater or ponds for off-season market gardening. The plots do not exceed one hectare, and PCSs primarily benefit vulnerable populations, i.e., women and very small producers. Establishment costs vary from US$2,000–8,000 and are largely financed by the GoN, with beneficiaries contributing 10–30 percent of total costs. Water management is generally collective. Yields are low because water control is only partial, and the perimeters are too small and scattered to mobilize the advisory services. Rights to land and water resources are also a major issue: PCSs are usually established on land rented out by their customary owner, with producers only allowed to cultivate during the off- season. The distinction between PCSs and small-scale private irrigation is increasingly blurred due to the fragmentation of the PCSs into individual plots where each farmer adopts their own irrigation system. 92. (iii) Small-scale private irrigation on areas from under 1 hectare to a few hectares, concerns small investments. This type of irrigation now represents around 60,000 hectares and utilizes using both surface water and groundwater with partial or total water control. It has developed rapidly from the mid-1990s, with the support of international organizations (including the World Bank), after the adoption by the GoN of a new vision of "low-cost irrigation (US$1,000–6,000 per hectare) driven by private investments. The new strategy has been a remarkable success. It is overwhelmingly oriented towards producing high-value vegetable crops, making investments more profitable. The recent inventory of easily mobilized groundwater resources, well distributed over the national territory, indicates a large potential for efficient development. The main issues that would need to be addressed are: • The need to establish a self-sustaining development framework allows small-scale irrigation to develop independently from specific project financing, with the support of national financial institutions and limited, well-targeted partial subsidies that do not discourage private finance mobilization and the recourse to financial institutions.53 • The need to improve land tenure security and prevent land grabbing and exclusion of vulnerable groups, particularly women). Land tenure uncertainties constrain investment and productivity, and irrigation expansion can lead to the eviction of vulnerable groups by well-positioned individuals. • The need to create an environment favorable to the intensification of production by better linking areas of irrigated agriculture to markets and promoting improved technologies (drip irrigation) and better access to technical advice and inputs. • The need to carefully monitor water use and prevent over-exploitation of the shallow aquifers. 93. (iv) Few medium and relatively and large commercial irrigated farms exist. Developing commercial irrigated farms could yield benefits like mobilizing private capital and providing farmers with access to technical expertise, technologies, and marketing capabilities. These setups foster job creation and efficient value chains, connecting small neighboring farms to markets. Such investments are likely in 52 The cost of developing new land with full water control is estimated at US$30,000 per hectare and the cost of rehabilitation at US$8,000 per hectare. Operating costs vary from US$30 per hectare in gravity system to US$120–240 per hectare in irrigation with pumping. 53 The subsidy rates provided under development projects are all well above 70 percent. 33 places with supportive conditions such as market access, land availability, water, and basic infrastructure. Investors value land availability and secure land tenure, though care must be taken to prevent land grabbing and social tensions. 94. (v) The GoN’s strategy calls for continued expansion of water harvesting programs. Niger has massively invested in these programs, and an estimated 500,000 hectares have so far benefited from various water harvesting techniques, whether individual, i.e., tassa, or half-moon, or collective methods like levees, bunds, weirs, and mini dams. Most of these techniques are relatively low-cost (US$100–500 per hectare), with individuals providing their labor. Although water harvesting techniques are, in principle, profitable, their adoption rate is low, and the investments made by the GoN are often not maintained. Uncertainty over who benefits from these investments, labor shortages, and low profitability (unless farming intensifies) can limit them. However, investment yielding public benefits—like reduced erosion and groundwater recharge—warrants continuation despite potential low returns. 95. (vi) Priority should also be given to the development of pastoral hydraulics. The issue of water availability is acute in pastoral areas, given the poor coverage of existing water points.54 The density of hydraulic infrastructures is far from the official requirements, and 66 percent of pastoral and agro-pastoral households do not have adequate access to water for their animals and their own consumption. Following 1992, local communities took over water point management and maintenance financing through water fees collected from herders. Mismanagement of these funds by committee members, coupled with poor maintenance, has led to the deterioration of this infrastructure. Water point scarcity and increasing privatization are resulting in growing conflicts. The GoN aims to reduce the average distance to a permanent water point from 50–20 kilometers between 2021–25, doubling the current number of functional water points from 650 to 1,300. This requires clear, strictly enforced agreements on resource access and local water user associations’ support in operation and maintenance. 96. The sustainability of irrigation development requires addressing several cross-sector issues. These issues mostly affect the agricultural sector's development at large. Still, their negative impact is more pronounced in irrigated agriculture regarding suboptimal productivity and forgone opportunities. Access to financial services is a binding constraint, with credit from financial institutions remaining nearly impossible (limited to a few large and medium-sized commercial farms and generally only for short-term marketing credits). Access to inputs and agricultural advice to optimize production and investment returns is also low. The various public agencies involved in technology transfer are weak due to a lack of human and financial resources. Private service suppliers have emerged only within the framework of specific irrigation projects financing their services, as most producers cannot pay. The effective operationalization of the FISAN and the new SNCA will be key to addressing these issues (Republic of Niger and HCI3N 2017). 4.2.5. Improving access to agricultural inputs 97. In Niger, the use of agricultural inputs is very limited. In 2013, the GoN adopted the National Strategy for Sustainable Input Supply to Farmers (SIAD) and removed most import taxes on agricultural inputs. However, progress has been slow due to several factors: poverty, traditional agricultural practices favoring climatic shock mitigation, lack of information and training on the use of inputs, low coverage of distribution networks (private outlets, input shops, or farmer schools), and lack of access to credit. A. Access to improved seeds 98. More than 85 percent of the cultivated area is sown with seeds from producers’ previous harvests or purchased on local markets. Roughly 15 percent of the land is covered with improved seeds from the formal system, i.e., from INRAN and, to a lesser extent, certain international research institutes 54 Theseinclude surface water bodies (ponds), traditional wells that make up more than 80 percent of all water points and which provide drinking water for people and livestock, and cemented wells and boreholes constructed by the GoN. 34 such as IITA, ICRISAT, and Africa Rice. Research institutions, such as INRAN, produce and supply pre-basic seeds to seed multipliers certified by the National Directorate of Seed Control and Certification (DCCS)— private seed companies, cooperatives,55 and other independent producers—that produce certified seed to supply to farmers through input dealers and development projects.56 99. The modern seed sector struggles to supply quality seeds that meet the estimated needs of farmers. Less than 10,000 tons of improved seeds are produced each year57 when over 100,000 tons would be needed to achieve the GoN's objective of covering 30 percent of the total cultivated area with improved seeds. The large deficit in seed distribution is not so much due to the seed companies' capacity but factors including low demand from producers due to unawareness of the benefits of improved seeds, prohibitive pricing for many producers, and a distribution network that is unable to reach numerous rural areas. Moreover, the GoN’s free seed distribution initiatives often hinder the development of a vibrant private distribution network. Lastly, the mediocre quality control system fails to guarantee seed quality during all process stages, from production to storage.58 100. The GoN successfully piloted an initiative to increase farmers’ use of improved seeds. In 2017– 18, it piloted a new approach to better target subsidized input (50 percent for seeds and fertilizers) using e-voucher systems.59 The pilot has been successful in reaching the target population and reducing the cost of the GoN subsidy program. In addition, a new strategy has been adopted to address the existing weakness at all levels of the national seed system: (a) varietal selection; (b) timely production of foundation seeds and certified seeds of good quality and quantity; (c) reliable quality controls; and (d) strengthening of the interprofession of the seed sector. A detailed roadmap has been prepared for the implementation of this strategy (Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock, Royal Tropical Institute (KIT), and Wageningen University and Research (WUR) 2022). B. Access to fertilizers 101. The consumption of mineral fertilizers is extremely low in Niger. According to the latest available data, total fertilizer consumption in Niger stands at 0.6 kilograms per hectare of arable land.60 Mineral fertilizers are mainly used for irrigated crops like rice and vegetable crops, and other cash crops such as groundnuts and cotton. They are rarely used for dry cereals or cowpeas. Until recently, the main distribution channel for fertilizer was CAIMA,61 a public agency that procured fertilizers on the international market and sold it at half price through a network of distribution outlets. The private importers and distributors, many of which are informal, find it difficult to compete with CAIMA. Yet, CAIMA’s operations have proven inefficient, opaque, and costly to the GoN.62 Because of limited resources and management problems, CAIMA was able to mobilize and distribute small volumes of fertilizer: less than 24,300 tons in 2017, 23,350 tons in 2018, and 16,300 in 2019 against the demand estimated at more than 100,000 tons per year.63 Delivery was generally late. In line with the fertilizer roadmap adopted in Lomé (May 2023), to which Niger is a signatory, improving access to fertilizers is critical to enhance soil health and fertility, 55 In 2017, there were about 65 cooperative producing certified seeds in Niger. 56 The Association of Private Seed Producers of Niger (APPSN) represents most of these private seed operators. 57 Most of the production is bought by the GoN/donor programs. 58 In 2008, the GoN adopted the regional seed regulations of the ECOWAS and the UEMOA. 59 This pilot program was supported by the West Africa Agricultural Productivity Program (WAAPP), financed by the World Bank. A total of 30,800 households, of which 26 with women household heads, received an electronic voucher for a kit to be obtained from approved distributors (10 kilograms of cereals and 5 kilograms of cowpea allowing them to cultivate at least 1.5 hectares of land). 60 The world average fertilizer consumption in 2020 based on 161 countries is 180 kilograms per hectare of arable land; Kenya 65 kilograms; Cote d’Ivoire 52 kilograms, and Burkina Faso 17 kilograms (FAO). 61 CAIMA also distributes pesticides and agricultural machinery. 62 During 2010-2016, the cost of fertilizer acquired by CAIMA was 540,000 CFAF per ton, i.e., 27,000 CFAF per 50-kilogam bag while during the same period, the private sector sold a 50-kilogram bag on average at 13,000 FCFA. 63 Ministry of Finance. 35 thereby improving agricultural productivity and food security. 102. In 2018, following an in-depth review of the fertilizer sector and consultations with all stakeholders, the GoN adopted a new fertilizer strategy. The import and distribution of fertilizers have been liberalized, shifting from a CAIMA-dominated public system to one driven mainly by the private sector. A pilot program of subsidized fertilizer distribution through e-vouchers (like that concerning improved seeds) was successfully implemented in 2018 and 201964, and the GoN decided the total withdrawal of CAIMA from the fertilizer distribution in January 2022.65 A roadmap for the full implementation of the reform has been prepared to strengthen the various bodies created for the management and monitoring of the system,66 strengthen private distributors, and operationalize the Common Fertilizer Fund established for financing the subsidy in favor of vulnerable producers. C. Access to financial services 103. Niger lags behind other African countries in terms of financial inclusion. In 2021, only 14 percent of Niger’s population used financial services, i.e., banking, microfinance, or e-money; only 15.5 percent of adults held an account in a financial institution, including electronic money accounts, compared to an average of 34 percent in Sub-Saharan Africa (IMF 2023). The rural and gender gaps were also large: 89 percent of the rural population does not have access to financial services, just 5.3 percent of women had a bank account compared to 12 percent of men, and 11 percent of women used mobile money services compared to 20 percent of men. 104. Access to credit and financial services for private operators remains a major challenge. Bank credit to the private sector amounted to 13 percent of GDP in Niger (2021), almost half of the regional average (24 percent). Most of the banks’ credits to the economy are directed towards the industrial and service sectors (mines, hydrocarbons, telephony) and very little (less than 0.5 percent) toward the agricultural sector.67 Less than five banks out of twelve currently operating in Niger offer agricultural credit and short-term loans to market agricultural products, and very few actors can provide the necessary guarantees. Medium-term credit is not available, except to a small extent from the BAGRI. Leasing activity and warrantees are limited, and digital credit is still non-existent. The development of the banking sector’s financial services to agriculture faces severe structural barriers on both the supply and demand sides: (a) the very low incomes of most producers and their lack of collateral; (b) the lack of financial institutions’ knowledge of the sector and capacity to analyze what they consider to be very high-risk activities; (c) the high cost of servicing scattered small clients; (d) the lack of long-term resources to finance investments; and (e) the low level of literacy and financial literacy of the population. 105. Microfinance Institutions (MFIs) are the main financing sources for some agricultural activities, with an agricultural portfolio representing not more than 17 percent of total lending.68 Their geographical location is rather urban, their resources are essentially short-term, and their lending rates are high at over 20 percent per annum. Their products are also not adapted to seasonal agro-sylvo-pastoral activities that require flexible and adequate repayment schedules. A few large traders pre-finance agricultural 64 This was funded by MCC/MCA Niger and executed by IFDC. The pilot program was successful: effective delivery of subsidized fertilizers (1,450 tons) by 35 private distributors to 15,000 beneficiaries which were each able to buy 4 bags of fertilizer at 6,750 FCFA instead of 13,500 and saw a substantial impact on their production. 65 In April 2021, the GoN signed an agreement with OCP Africa for fertilizer supply to Niger. As per the agreement, OCP Africa was to provide fertilizers at competitive prices and to guarantee a regular supply for Nigerien farmers. 66 The Observatory of the Fertilizer Market in Niger (OMEN) and the Technical Committee for Fertilizers in Niger (COTEN) with branches in the eight regions of Niger. 67 In 2017, less than 1.0 percent of the adult population of Niger had access to agricultural credit to improve their production or invest in the processing of agricultural products. 68 Four MFIs—Asusu SA, Taanadi SA, ACEP Niger and Capital Finance—account for 75 percent of outstanding loans to agriculture. MFIs’ agricultural lending amounted to around 6 billion FCFA in 2017, which, added to the 8 billion from commercial banks, represented 1 percent of total credit to the economy. 36 production, in cash or through the provision of seeds or fertilizers. Agro-processing SMEs have limited access to bank credit, essentially for working capital. They intervene little in the pre-financing of agricultural activities. A few agricultural federations focusing on cash crop value chains are starting to act as wholesalers of credit to their members (cooperatives and individual farmers) for their working capital needs (inputs and storage),69 so far with varying degrees of success. 106. The GoN has implemented measures to improve access to financial services for agricultural producers and enterprises. Following the adoption of a new National Inclusive Finance Strategy,70 the GoN has set up two funds: The Food and Nutritional Security Investment Fund (FISAN) in 2017 and the Financial Inclusion Development Fund (FDIF) in 2020. The FDIF offers grants and loans to financial institutions for financial assistance to vulnerable populations in all sectors, particularly women and young people. FDIF has already started its activities and mobilized financial resources from various technical and financial partners. The Food and Nutrition Security Investment Fund (FISAN) specifically targets financing the bankable agricultural sector. FISAN’s Facility 1 targets profitable, productive activities by private investors. It supports financing private investments (individuals, cooperatives, small and medium-sized enterprises) through refinancing at concessional rates of banks’ agricultural lending and providing matching grants and partial credit guarantees to de-risk agricultural lending. It is not targeted to the most vulnerable populations who cannot be eligible for credits from financial organizations. FISAN's strategic development plan 2022-26 was adopted in 2021 and started its operations in 2022 (Republic of Niger 2021a). FISAN’s funding will be key to improving producers’ access to short-term and investment credit. It will be critical to (a) ensure its efficient and transparent governance; (b) provide the necessary long-term financial resources to make it fully operational; and (c) strengthen the capacities of the partner intermediary financial institutions, including MFIs, to develop adequate lending instruments and their capacity to analyze agricultural investments. 4.3. Expanding the domestic market 107. Demand will not be a constraint for the development of the agricultural sector. Fueled by the country’s high population growth and rapid urbanization, the domestic market will offer considerable growth potential. The regional and international markets also offer large opportunities for Nigerien exports if national production can be competitive in these increasingly demanding markets. 108. The domestic demand for food will continue to grow rapidly. Niger’s population is projected to grow above 3.5 percent per annum in the foreseeable future, reaching 62–65 million by 2050.71 The urban population will grow even faster, reaching over 15 million by 2050. Urbanization and growth of the middle class will lead to major changes in dietary habits, favoring products with higher value, e.g., fresh vegetables, livestock products, fish, and processed products. The domestic food demand is thus expected to grow faster than the population. Cereals will continue to be a major component of households’ diets and will play a central role in Niger’s food security. Although growing at a lower rate than in the past, the total demand for millet and sorghum is expected to double, from 5 to 10 million tons by 2050. The demand for rice is expected to increase much faster because of urbanization and possibly increase from the current 0.5 million tons to close to 2.0 million tons by 2050. The domestic demand for meat, milk, and other animal products is also expected to increase, which, in turn, will increase the demand for animal feed (maize, millet, and sorghum). Meeting these very large increases in the domestic food demand, in the context of 69 For example, in terms of rice, FUCOPRI facilitates a financing from BAGRI with a firm sale contract with the Office des Produits Vivriers du Niger (OPVN) and credit collection at harvest time; Mooriben, which provides a 50 percent guarantee on lending to its members.; or FCMN-Nyia with an FAO-EU guarantee fund with Ecobank for financing inputs. 70 The National Inclusive Finance Strategy (SNFI) 2015-2019 (Ministry of Finance 2015), which was updated in 2019 (SNFI 2019– 2023). 71 United Nations, Population Division, 2020. 37 increasing land constraints and climate change, will require sustaining productivity increases (as discussed above) and building resilience of domestic production systems against shocks. 109. However, the competitiveness of the Nigerien agricultural sector is limited by the poor quality of the market infrastructure in the country. Niger has poor infrastructure development. Its Composite Infrastructure Development Index was 5.5/100 in 2018, making Niger among the three worst African countries. Niger scored low on every component of the Index (electricity 49; transport 48; information and communication technology (ICT) 51). Roads, power, water supply, and ICT backbone infrastructures are concentrated in a few urban areas, primarily Niamey. Rural areas are poorly served. 4.3.1. Transport infrastructure 110. Despite the GoN’s efforts, Niger ranked 157th out of 160 countries in the 2018 Logistics Performance Index. The national transport infrastructure comprises a road network of 18,900 kilometers, accounting for more than 95 percent of all freight transport, and a limited capacity for inland water transport. Niger has three international airports (Niamey, Zinder, and Agadez) and three domestic airports. The current air freight is very limited, with less than 4,000 tons of air cargo annually. Still, the development of air freight capacity is potentially important for the export of high-value commodities. Table 2. Transport infrastructure in Niger Source: World Data.com 111. Road transport is by far the most dominant transport mode. The country has a total road network of 18,949 kilometers, of which 10,600 kilometers are national roads, 2,000 are regional roads, and 6,900 are unclassified rural roads. Road density is low at 15 kilometers per 1,000 square kilometer and 0.75 meters per inhabitant, compared to the African average of 99 kilometers per square kilometer and 2.2 meters per inhabitant. The rural network density is even lower, with 0.6 kilometers per 1,000 inhabitants, one of the lowest on the continent. In 2019, less than 35 percent of the rural population lived within 2 kilometers of an all-weather road, reducing to only 20 percent in Diffa. O&M is inadequate. According to the most recent data, around 70 percent of paved roads and less than 40 percent of rural roads are in good or fair condition. Many of the rural roads are impassable during the rainy season. Rural roads’ routine maintenance is carried out by the local communities and financed by small funds gathered by taxing rural road users. The periodic maintenance—which is more expensive and requires more technical experience— is executed through the newly reformed national road maintenance mechanism with the financing of the 2nd generation Road Fund.72 However, the resources of the Road Fund can cover less than 40 percent of the network’s maintenance needs. The national paved roads absorb most available resources, and rural roads suffer from a severe lack of maintenance. 112. Because of its landlocked position, the regional transport infrastructure is critical for Niger's 72Reforms have been implemented since 2017/19 with the support of the European Commission (EC), and the Millennium Challenge Account. A second-generation Road Fund and a road maintenance execution agency were established to improve governance/efficiency and increasing the mobilization of the necessary resources. 38 economic development. Nigerien traders use four main corridors to reach seaports: (a) the Niamey- Cotonou Corridor, the shortest in the western part of the country, is the most important transit corridor and accounts for about 80 percent of the total traffic; (b) the Niamey-Lomé corridor, 200 kilometers longer, accounts for 15 percent of the traffic; (c) the other corridors, to Tema and Takoradi, Abidjan and Lagos, are longer and represent a modest part of the transit. Yet, informal trade flows of agricultural products, in particular to Nigeria, are very important. Niger’s costs and time to reach international markets are among the highest in the region and more than 70 percent higher than the Sub-Saharan African average due to a combination of inefficiencies along the transit chain. These include poor port and transport infrastructure, lengthy customs procedures, non-tariff barriers, including illegal levies, a dilapidated trucking fleet, and the poor quality of transport services.73 4.3.2. Marketing infrastructure 113. The 3NI has made rehabilitation and construction of market infrastructure a priority. The number of these infrastructures—wholesale/semi-wholesale markets, livestock markets, slaughtering houses/areas, milk collection centers, among others—financed under several projects, increased from 370 in 2011 to 5,200 in 2020. However, there is inadequate operation and maintenance after the projects have closed. There is also a critical lack of equipment for the collection, storage, processing, and distribution of agricultural products, and many of the existing ones suffer from a lack of maintenance due to faulty management and unclear responsibilities. The country’s main cities have food markets, but most lack satisfactory storage facilities, including cold storage, which requires maintaining a rapid turn-over of products, generates significant losses, and represents health problems. Unreliable cold storage, linked to the unreliability of electricity supply, and transport are particularly binding constraints to the development of fresh produce supply chains, including for exports. 114. 3NI’s new Action Plan (2021–2025) focuses on investments to develop market infrastructure for agro-silvo-pastoral and fisheries products. It includes an increase in crop-specific centers for the bulking and marketing of crops in the country’s main production areas and further investments in the livestock sector to modernize the existing primary livestock markets and slaughterhouses. The lack of modern slaughterhouses represents particularly high sanitary risks, and a major constraint to capturing the value- added associated with the sale of meat (refrigerated or frozen) on the domestic or regional market and for the potential production of quality skins. Most of the country’s 56 municipal slaughterhouses are located in the secondary centers and are in poor condition, lacking sanitary control. Of the five relatively better slaughterhouses in Niamey, Zinder, Maradi, Tahoua, and Tillabery, only the first four have a refrigerated capacity and (limited) sanitary controls. Rehabilitation and upgrading these slaughterhouses to international standards would allow the export of meat to neighboring countries and the (re)starting of a hides and skins industry.74 There are currently no modern tanneries in Niger, just a few semi-modern tanneries that process less than 20 percent of the 4 million skins available annually into leather goods for the domestic market; the remaining 80 percent is exported as raw skins to Nigeria. This development can realistically be envisaged only in the medium term as the domestic demand for high-quality meat is still small, and export of meat to Nigeria is unlikely to be an option in the near or medium term, as Nigeria looks for live animals to benefit from the use by-products and supply its own tanning industry. 73 Around 40 percent of the firms identified transport as a major business constraint, compared to 32 percent in LICs and 18 percent in MICs. The time needed to comply with all procedures required to export goods from Niger is 59 days, relative to an average of 34 days in West Africa. It takes 64 days to import goods, which is above the regional average of 39 days. 74 Niger was an exporter of good quality hides. However, the modern tanneries (public and private) all closed in the early 1990s. The high value of Niger’s skins used to be widely recognized among leading overseas markets like Italy, with products such as the Maradi red goat—recently registered as collective trademark—considered exceptional until the closure of the existing tanneries in the 1980s. At present, most livestock is exported live, mostly to Nigeria. 39 4.3.3. Access to information and the use of ICT 115. Under the Niger 2.0 Strategy, the GoN has undertaken several reforms and investments to support the development of the ICT sector. The last decade has seen a strong expansion of mobile network coverage. Almost non-existent in 2000, by 2019, the mobile network covered more than 90 percent of the national territory.75 The mobile phone penetration rate has increased from 1 per 100 inhabitants in 2000 to above 55 percent in 2019 (figure 17), and 16 percent of households have internet access. Despite this considerable progress, Niger remains one of the least digitally connected countries in the world, reflecting a combination of factors such as difficult access to electricity in rural areas, households’ low purchasing power, high Figure 17. Mobile telephone access in 2020 (% of population) mobile ownership costs,76 low education Source: Remote ICT Assessment in Niger; CHISU/USAID, 2022. levels, and poor ICT skills. The use of ICT in rural areas still plays only a minor role in farmers' access to information and financial inclusion. Investing in ICT technologies and their adoption in the agricultural sector will be key to integrating smallholder farmers into higher-value agricultural value chains, providing market information and technical advice through e-extension systems, improving transport logistics and offering mobile banking services. This will require (a) increased access to electricity and mobile/internet services in rural areas; (b) lowering the cost of information and communication technology (ITC) products; (c) developing innovative products well suited to producers’ specific needs; and (d) investing in ICT skills among agricultural extension workers, farmers, producer organizations, and other actors of the agricultural sector. 4.3.4. Sanitary or phytosanitary and quality standards 116. Sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) and food quality issues are becoming increasingly important for accessing markets. The health crises of recent decades (the spread of animal diseases - bovine spongiform encephalopathy, foot-and-mouth disease, avian flu, Ebola) have highlighted the importance of meeting health and food safety standards that govern regional and international trade. Critical phytosanitary and health issues will become more acute in the future. This is already true for exports to developed countries but is also becoming increasingly important for regional exports. A growing number of consumers also require their suppliers to have environmental and social quality and sustainability standards. Meeting these requirements requires producers to adopt GAP and good manufacturing practices (GMP), use effective quality control processes (control of critical points/Hazard Analysis of Critical Control Points – HACCP), and establish reliable traceability and certification systems (GlobalGAP, BRC, ISO 22000, among others). 117. Niger’s current national food sanitary and quality control system has serious shortcomings. Although the country has benefited from several supports to strengthen its national food sanitary and quality control system, the legal and regulatory framework is inadequate. It should be upgraded to meet international and regional requirements.77 The National Agency for Verification and Compliance with Standards (AVCN) is the public structure responsible for the overall coordination of the national system. 75 There were 14 million mobile phones in 2019 (0.59 per person). 76 The cost of mobile ownership is high in Niger, costing a third of the monthly incomes for the bottom 40 percent of the population (relative to 6 percent in Ghana). 77 Inter alia, UEMOA regulation for the harmonization of accreditation, certification, standardization, and metrology activities; and ECOWAS’s Quality Policy (ECOQUAL), Assurance of Quality, Accreditation and Metrology (NQAM or Quality Infrastructure - IQ) under its Common Industrial Policy for West Africa (WACIP). 40 The AVCN verifies the conformity of products and services with national standards and technical regulations, including the certification of the quality of local and imported products before they can be marketed in the country. Still, the AVCN’s human and financial capacities are low. There is a lack of clear distribution of responsibilities among the various institutions involved, resulting in overlaps and gaps and preventing an integrated approach to the issues. Niger does not have accredited laboratories. The National Public Health and Expertise Laboratory (LANSPEX) is the main public laboratory and a West African Economic and Monetary Union (UEMOA) reference laboratory for the quality control of veterinary drugs. Despite this, it is plagued by a lack of human and financial resources. Private laboratories mainly cover biomedical analyses. Private operators must use regional expertise, especially from Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire. A specific agency, the Restructuring and Upgrading Office (BRMN), was created in 2011 to assist Nigerien companies in upgrading their quality control systems to increase their performance and competitiveness at the national, regional, and international levels. However, the BRMN also suffers from severe human and financial constraints. Finally, very few service providers can assist private companies in upgrading their quality management systems. 118. In 2017, Niger adopted a comprehensive National Quality Policy and Strategy (PNQ).78 However, implementation of PNQ’s action plan (total cost of US$616 million) has hardly started. In the context of strong financial and human constraints, it seems necessary to strictly prioritize the actions needed in the short and medium term. Priority should be given to (a) the updating of the national legal and regulatory framework for its full alignment on the international and regional policies and standards (ECOQUAL); (b) the rationalization of the national institutional architecture and the strengthening of its key operational institutions/agencies, i.e., plant and animal protection, inspection, quarantine, health surveillance, certification and fraud prevention, etc.; (c) the upgrading of key laboratories, and their accreditation if possible; (d) the preparation of basic health regulations and guides for good agricultural, livestock and food manufacturing practices (for key value chains such as onions, cowpeas, cattle, meat, milk) and the strengthening of private operators’ capacities to adopt good agricultural/industrial practices and effective quality management approaches; and (e) the establishment of a national certification mechanism. 4.4. Expanding agro-processing and exports 119. Niger’s agricultural exports are heavily concentrated on a few products, mainly livestock, onions, and cowpeas. The international market, theoretically, offers an almost infinite outlet for Niger’s agricultural production. However, competition in these markets is high, and reliability, quality, and traceability requirements make them difficult to penetrate, at least in the short and medium terms. Opportunities in the regional market appear more promising. Food production in West Africa has been struggling to keep up with a rapidly increasing demand. ECOWAS’s dependency on food imports has sky- rocketed in recent years, notably for cereals (rice), vegetable oil, sugar, meat, milk, and fish; the region’s food imports amounted to about US$20 billion in 2021. The population of West Africa is expected to reach 515 million by 2030 and 850 million by 2050,79 and rapid urbanization and a steady increase in income levels will provide important export opportunities for Nigerien producers if they can be competitive. 120. Niger’s agro-climatic conditions favor supplying this expanding regional market with several products. Livestock exports represent around 70 percent of Niger’s total agricultural exports.80 Niger is also the top onion exporter to West African countries, with the Violet de Galmi variety formally registered with an origin label in 2021.81 Niger’s exports of onions and other horticulture crops have grown at 10–15 78 PolitiqueNationale de la Qualité; 2017. 79 UN Population Division. 80 Niger has the 2nd and 3rd largest herds of large and small ruminants in West Africa, respectively. 81 Niger has to date obtained origin labeling for four products: Galmi onion and Kilichi dry meat as geographical indications, and Tchoukou cheese and Maradi red goat as collective trademarks. 41 percent annually over the last decade, and regional demand is growing rapidly. Niger is also the world’s second largest cowpea producer, grown for home consumption and as a cash crop by 10 million smallholders. An estimated 15 percent of Niger’s output is consumed locally, and 85 percent is exported to the sub-region as whole beans. Sesame exports are developing and are estimated to reach US$224 million. Other crops, such as groundnuts, potatoes, moringa, sesame, and tiger nuts, also have promising growth potential in the medium term.82 121. The development of agro-processing can also increase value addition and job creation. There is currently very little agro-processing in Niger. Excluding ginned cotton, the country exports only live animals and raw commodities and imports mostly processed food products like milled rice and other food like pasta, palm oil, sugar, flour, and powdered milk. Niger’s formal manufacturing sector only accounts for around 8 percent of GDP, among the smallest in Sub-Saharan Africa, and has been decreasing since the early 2000s.83 The few market-oriented agri-food industrial operators are concentrated in Niamey, with fewer in Maradi. Their activities are targeted at the domestic market and focus on livestock (slaughterhouses, poultry), cereal (pasta production, rice mills), dairy, and leather (tanneries). Many small operators (mostly cooperatives) also process fruit, cereals, and dairy products. Yet the bulk of agro- processing is still informal and artisanal, conducted at the household level, by women, and for the local markets. Products include cowpea flour, cassava flour, tomato puree, groundnut oil, Kilichi dried meat, and cheese Tchoukou. 122. The GoN prioritizes enhancing value addition by expanding local processing and agribusinesses. The GoN aims to establish "agropoles" in the country's eight regions and main agricultural production basins (figure 18). These agropoles are designed around promising value chains and are established and run based on public-private partnerships (PPPs). Their establishment Figure 18. Agropole priorities across regions would involve three key components: (a) the development of logistics platforms to accommodate private investors, providing adequate infrastructure (utilities, roads, storage) and specialized services (cold chains, waste treatment, business services, information, and communication technology) to attract private investments for the marketing and processing of agricultural products; (b) the creation of special agro- industrial processing zones or Special Economic Zones to provide a legal and regulatory framework favorable to private investments; and (c) the promotion of contractual arrangements between agricultural producers and marketing/processing companies and capacity building of key players to create efficient value chains (see box 3). The first agropole will be established in Niamey with technical assistance from Arise Integrated Industrial Platforms (Arise IIP). The Niamey agropole, expected to be operational by the 82 Since2005, to maintain food security, the GoN has banned exports of some food crops produced in Niger through subsistence farming, including millets, sorghum, maize, and cassava flour. 83 Niger recorded US$1 billion in manufacturing value add in 2020, around 8 percent of GDP. This figure is higher than Chad (3 percent of GDP), Togo and Senegal (4 percent of GDP) and equal to Mali but behind Burkina Faso (9 percent of GDP), Ghana and Benin (10 percent), and Cote d’Ivoire (11 percent). 42 end of 2024, will be the pilot for the other seven agropoles, which will be rolled out over 10–15 years. It will be an agro-industrial platform to host private investments and target specific products—cowpea, tomato, sesame, groundnut, chili pepper, and livestock meat—supplied by existing producer associations. Box 3: Agricultural growth poles (agropoles) Agropoles have become an integral part of national agricultural policy/strategy in many countries (Burkina faso, Mali, Togo, Cameroon, Sierra Leone, Gambia, Ethiopia, Democratic Republic of Congo, etc.), to modernize agriculture and develop agricultural production. This approach is supported by major international initiatives (the Grow Africa platform, the New Alliance for Food Security and Nutrition -NASAN) and multilateral and bilateral donors. Agropoles have many common characteristics with special economic zones: (a) their objective is to attract large private investors, to modernize the agricultural and agri-food sector; (b) they are based on public-private partnerships, with State intervention centered on the establishment of the necessary basic infrastructure (road or rail networks, utilities, storage platforms, irrigation, etc.), regulations, tax incentives and the provision of secured access to land; and (c) they encourage the establishment of contractual relationships between the modern private investors and local small producers to integrate the latter through access to markets, inputs and services including credit. The development of agropoles has, however, encountered significant difficulties. These were well documented for the Bagré-pôle in Burkina Faso, the Office du Niger in Mali or the agricultural growth corridor of Beira in Mozambique, and gave mixed results in terms of economic and social efficiency. Agropole development has also raised concerns about land security for local family farming, the lack of effective synergy between large farms/agro-industry and family farms and the lack of the promised employment creation. For example, in Burkina Faso, the development of the Bagré agropole aimed to create 30,000 jobs but young people in the area continue to seek work in urban areas. Establishing balanced partnerships between local family farms and agribusiness companies is the cornerstone of agripoles, alongside committing to fair contractual relations with local producers, important selection criteria for investors. However, these actions are rarely implemented due to the inconveniences and risks for agri-food companies to integrate family farms into their operations. Such risks include scattered production, quality and reliability issues, lack of producer organizations, lack of coercive legal framework in the event of non-compliance with contract clauses. 123. Agropoles can be promising instruments to achieve the GoN’s objective to modernize small-scale agriculture, reduce poverty reduction, and enhance food security. However, they require large financial resources, and experiences in other countries have been mixed. The design and implementation of future agropoles should consider key lessons from similar programs in Africa or other regions. Particular attention should be given to (a) availability of well-suited financing for key productive investments requiring capital to develop their operations over long periods, such as modern slaughterhouses that generally need both investment and operational subsidies to be financially viable; (b) effective integration of family farming in the development of modern value chains, through enforceable contract farming arrangements; and (c) adequate land tenure security for family producers who may be threatened by the increasing monetization of land and water resources and land grabbing by more powerful interest. 124. Despite the GoN’s efforts to improve the country’s investment climate, there are few private investments, domestic or foreign, in the agriculture and agro-processing sector. The GoN has undertaken over the last decade a series of reforms to improve the business climate and promote private investments. It revised the Investment Code, reduced property and business registration costs and processes, and established a one-stop shop for business start-ups, the Maison de l’Entreprise, which combines all necessary business creation services. The GoN revised the law governing PPPs, created a commercial court in Niamey to arbitrate commercial disputes, and established a High Council for Investment of Niger (HCIN), a platform of public-private dialogue to improve the business environment. The GoN also established the Nigerien Agency for the Promotion of Private Investment and Strategic Projects (ANPIPS), under the President’s Office, which is responsible for improving the business climate, promoting private investments, and supporting investors in implementing their investment projects. 43 125. The business climate remains difficult, and many obstacles constrain private investments. In 2019, Niger ranked 115th out of 140 countries in the the World Economic Forum's Global Competitiveness Index and 123rd out of 180 countries by the Corruption Perceptions Index (2022) of Transparency International. Private investments are constrained by the small size of Niger’s market; inadequate transport and utility infrastructure; bureaucratic procedures, corruption, and elite capture; unfair competition from the dominant informal sector; lack of skilled workforce; difficulty in accessing financial services; its dysfunctional judicial system, and lack of effective contract enforcement. The formal private sector’s small contribution to GDP—around 10 percent, one of the lowest rates in Sub-Saharan Africa—highlights the persistence of these challenges. 126. Most of the above constraints are even more binding for private investments in the agriculture and agro-industrial sectors. Private investments in agriculture and agribusiness face, in addition to those facing private investments at large, sector-specific constraints: difficulties in mobilizing raw material supply from a scattered production by small production units and quality levels do not meet the needs of the local market nor the more demanding expectations of export customers; important climatic and security risks that disrupt the supply and trade of agricultural products; high production costs; weak physical infrastructure and poor logistics that increase costs and reduce the scope of products that may be exported competitively; difficulties in accessing financing for investments or working capital; a lack of skilled labor; a weak national system in terms of quality control, lacking modern laboratories, certification and traceability systems, etc.; tax and customs policies that disincentivize the processing of agricultural products on site; unfair competition from the informal sector, and cheaper products that are often imported illegally. 127. Increasing private investments in agriculture will require policy and regulatory measures that create a more supportive business environment. Targeted interventions are also needed to reduce the risks and transaction costs associated with agricultural investments. Such interventions should (a) improve land tenure security and establish transparent and efficient land administration systems to promote investment in the sector; (b) improve access to financial services and reduce the risks and transaction costs associated with agricultural investments, including through incentives/partial subsidies, credit guarantees and other risk management tools; and (c) the development of integrated agricultural value chains, including investments in infrastructure. 128. The development of domestic processing should focus on value-addition to products that Niger has a comparative advantage. There are promising opportunities for private investments in the domestic production of processed food; some processed foods, including pasta, vegetable oil, milled rice and cowpeas, are already produced on a very small scale. Niger’s livestock sector also offers poultry (meat and eggs) and milk opportunities. The dairy sector is particularly attractive due to the growing demand for milk products and the ongoing development of peri-urban dairy production. In the medium term, the development of the urban middle class will also increase the demand for good-quality meat, which will require the establishment of modern slaughterhouses, which in turn, support development of the skin/hide and leather sector. Increasing private investments in agro-processing will, however, require a combination of policy and regulatory measures to create a conducive enabling environment, and targeted interventions to reduce the risks and transaction costs associated with investments. Chapter 5: Conclusions and Way Forward 129. As one of the world’s poorest countries, Niger requires sustained and inclusive economic growth to reduce poverty. The agricultural sector, which employs three-quarters of the population, will play a key role in economic growth, food security, and poverty alleviation. The domestic food demand will be a main driver of agricultural growth. In addition, the international and fast-expanding regional markets offer large possibilities for Nigerien exports. Niger’s agro-climatic conditions favor supplying these markets with several products such as horticulture crops, sesame, cowpea, and livestock products. The development of 44 domestic agro-processing would also increase value addition and create employment. 130. Traditional farming systems are increasingly unable to maintain their productivity and supply the growing demand from the domestic and regional markets. Niger is increasingly unable to satisfy the food demand from its population and the region. Accelerated land use changes and unsustainable land management practices result in a downward spiral of soil depletion, loss of fertility, lower yields, and environmental degradation. Therefore, the key challenge for Niger is to transform a sector dominated by small, decapitalized family farms into a more modern and productive sector. Such transformation will require a comprehensive and carefully targeted strategy. The priority objective is boosting agricultural productivity and building the agri-food system resilience against climate change. 131. The 3NI adequately addresses the complex and inter-related sectoral challenges. It is a sound strategy and a comprehensive investment plan for developing the country’s agricultural sector. Implementing the 2021–25 3NI’s Action Plan should be fully supported by adequate financing and implementing the ongoing and proposed reforms. Going forward, in the context of limited financial resources and weak organizational and implementation capacities, the effectiveness of these programs will require a very pragmatic prioritization based on economic desirability and feasibility principles. Special attention should be given to building a stronger social contract by engaging all public and private partners in planning, financing, and implementing priority programs. 132. The main policy and investment options to transform the agri-food sector in the medium and long term are described under the following pillars. 5.1. Sustaining productivity increases and building resilience 133. Increasing agriculture productivity and building the resilience of the farming system towards climate change will be critical to sustainably increase household incomes, enhance food security, and create jobs for the country’s young and growing population. • Investing in irrigation. Priority should be given to the promotion of small-scale irrigation that is less demanding in terms of public investments and collective management. Investment in large parameters should first focus on the rehabilitation of existing public irrigated perimeters (AHA) to benefit from the sunk costs, but be accompanied by the necessary reforms in management, e.g., water management and O&M fees, improved land tenure security for women, improvements in farming methods and productivity, etc. • Building climate resilience of the agri-food system. Rain-fed farming is the livelihood of most agricultural households, and drought-proofing rain-fed systems will be key to agricultural growth, food security, and poverty reduction. Land restoration programs, water harvesting, afforestation, agro-forestry, and promoting climate-smart technologies should have the highest priority. • Technology generation and dissemination. Increasing investments in agricultural research will be critical to address the complex challenges facing the Nigerien agriculture. The focus should be on the development and widespread adoption by producers of technologies and farming practices that are more productive and resilient to climate change. The national research system’s capacity to generate climate-smart technologies well suited to smallholders' needs and resources should be strengthened, including through collaboration with regional and international centers. The new National Agricultural Advisory System (SNCA), with its menu of service providers, should be fully implemented. The resources necessary for both the research institutions and the extension service providers to operate efficiently should be made available through budgetary allocations and financing from the FISAN. • Improving access to inputs and services. In line with the Lomé Fertilizer Roadmap (May 2023), to which Niger is a signatory, improving access to fertilizers and integrated soil fertility management are critical 45 to enhancing soil health and fertility. After the liberalization of the fertilizer sector, support should be given to effectively implement the roadmap prepared for the reform by strengthening the various bodies created for the management and monitoring of the system, supporting the development of the network of private distributors, and operationalizing the Common Fertilizer Fund to finance smart subsidies in favor of vulnerable producers. Increased government support should also be given to developing the network of local multi-service platforms and producer organizations. 5.2. Creating inclusive employment and market opportunities 134. Creating an enabling environment for private investment in the agriculture sector. Niger must continue to adopt and implement reforms that will improve the agricultural business environment. This includes, in addition to ongoing reforms in the overall business climate: (a) secure access to land and water; (b) improved access to markets and agriculture finance; and (c) the development of integrated agricultural value chains. • Secure access to land and water. The GoN should implement the operational action plan (PA-PFR) 2021-27 of the new Rural Land Policy to ensure equitable and transparent access to land and water. Building the capacity of public institutions that protect property rights and resolve disputes over access to land and other resources is important. Attention should be given to strengthening women’s formal land and water rights, improving land and water management within the large public irrigated perimeters, and protecting herders' access to land, water, and pastures. Protecting the country’s national resources and ecosystems will help safeguard the future of Niger’s agri-food systems and forge a path towards a more sustainable and equitable agricultural sector. • Improve access to financial services. Sufficient resources should be allocated to both FISAN and FDIF. Prudent measures should be adopted to ensure efficient and transparent use of the resources. It will be necessary to implement programs to strengthen the capacities of financial intermediaries (BAGRI, MFIs), develop and promote innovative lending and de-risking instruments, and support the continued development of mobile money services. There is insufficient funding to finance investments in climate mitigation and adaptation. The existing fiscal space will remain too limited for the GoN to increase its financing. It will be important to increase the availability of climate finance from other sources by mobilizing finance from international and bilateral partners, increased use of main providers of climate financing, and the greening of the national financial institutions. • Support priority value chains and domestic value-addition. The development of priority value chains is key to the growth and modernization of the sector by providing producers with efficient access to output and input markets, supporting the emergence of downstream value-adding and job-creating activities, and building the capacities of critical actors along the value chains. 5.3. Enhancing the quality of agriculture public expenditures 135. Improving the quality of public expenditures in agriculture is critical. The public budget planning and budgeting processes should be improved to better consider (a) climate and other agricultural risks, as identified in the 3NI’s Action Plan to Address Agricultural Risks (PAGRA) and Strategy and Action Plan for Adaptation to Climate Change (SPN2 2020–2035); (b) programs to empower women; and (c) programs to develop the human resources across value chains. 136. Implementation and execution of agricultural public expenditures should be improved. This can be achieved through (a) strengthening the capacity of GoN institutions responsible for planning and implementing sector programs, including the use of performance-based management; (b) decentralizing implementation, which includes improving the skills and knowledge of staff as well as providing the 46 necessary resources and tools to carry out their work effectively; (c) enhancing coordination and monitoring the agencies involved in planning and executing sectoral programs; and (d) minimizing duplication of roles and responsibilities across different sectoral agencies. 137. Public expenditures in irrigation development should be expanded. More emphasis is required on small-scale irrigation schemes that are less demanding in terms of public investments and collective management. Investments should be made in labor-saving technologies, such as automated systems, and other public infrastructure critical to mobilizing private sector and structuring value chains, such as agropoles, rural roads, marketing infrastructure, and input shops. 138. 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