The World Bank Social Safety Net Project (P149323) REPORT NO.: RES50309 RESTRUCTURING PAPER ON A PROPOSED PROJECT RESTRUCTURING OF SOCIAL SAFETY NET PROJECT APPROVED ON SEPTEMBER 16, 2015 TO THE REPUBLIC OF MADAGASCAR SOCIAL PROTECTION & JOBS AFRICA EAST Regional Vice President: Hafez M. H. Ghanem Country Director: Zviripayi Idah Pswarayi Riddihough Regional Director: Amit Dar Practice Manager/Manager: Robert S. Chase Task Team Leader(s): John Van Dyck, Julia Rachel Ravelosoa The World Bank Social Safety Net Project (P149323) ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS BNGRC National Office for Risk and Disaster Management COVID-19 Coronavirus disease 2019 EA Environmental Assessment FID Investment Fund for Development (Fonds d’Intervention pour le Développement) HDCT Human Development Cash Transfer ONN National Office for Nutrition (Office National de Nutrition) PNNC National Community Nutrition Program (Programme National de la Nutrition Communautaire) PDO Project Development Objective PSNP Productive Safety Net Program SDR Special Drawing Right SSNP Social Safety Nets Project The World Bank Social Safety Net Project (P149323) BASIC DATA Product Information Project ID Financing Instrument P149323 Investment Project Financing Original EA Category Current EA Category Partial Assessment (B) Partial Assessment (B) Approval Date Current Closing Date 16-Sep-2015 31-Oct-2024 Organizations Borrower Responsible Agency ONN/PNNC-SEECALINE,Ministry of Population, Social The Republic of Madagascar Protection and Promotion of Women,FID Project Development Objective (PDO) Original PDO The project development objective (PDO) is to support the government in increasing the access of extremely poor households tosafety net services and in laying the foundations for a social protection system. Current PDO To support the Government in increasing the access of extremely poor households to safety net services and in laying the foundations for a social protection system, and accelerating the COVID-19 social protection response. OPS_TABLE_PDO_CURRENTPDO Summary Status of Financing (US$, Millions) Net Ln/Cr/Tf Approval Signing Effectiveness Closing Commitment Disbursed Undisbursed IDA-D7740 19-Feb-2021 10-Mar-2021 23-Mar-2021 31-Oct-2024 150.00 68.09 74.41 IDA-D4340 01-Mar-2019 26-Mar-2019 24-Jun-2019 31-Oct-2024 90.00 88.28 2.35 IDA-D1450 10-Nov-2016 01-Dec-2016 15-Jan-2017 30-Mar-2022 35.00 34.87 0 The World Bank Social Safety Net Project (P149323) IDA-57080 16-Sep-2015 13-Nov-2015 10-Feb-2016 30-Mar-2022 40.00 39.81 .14 Policy Waiver(s) Does this restructuring trigger the need for any policy waiver(s)? No I. PROJECT STATUS AND RATIONALE FOR RESTRUCTURING 1. The Madagascar Social Safety Nets Project (SSNP, P149323) consists of an original project and three additional financings totaling $315 million. The latest (third) additional financing of US$150 million was approved in February 2021. The project supports two flagship safety net programs: the Human Development Cash Transfer (HDCT) for families with young children and the Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP) cash for work program. The project also has a Crisis Response Sub-Component, which has been supporting the Fiavota emergency drought response program (designed as an adaptive flexible social safety net in response to recurrent droughts). Implementation of the SSNP, which closes October 31, 2024, is rated satisfactory. The project is 62.3 percent disbursed with an undisbursed balance of US$116.7 million. 2. To date, approximately 2.5 million individuals have been supported across the three programs (PSNP, HDCT and Fiavota). Of these, over 1.5 million individuals (150,000 beneficiary households) have received regular cash transfers and other support, with women making up 79 percent of cash transfer direct recipients, across nine regions. The programs have a strong emphasis on human capital, women’s empowerment, and productive inclusion. All three safety net programs are firmly established and have implemented many innovations such as: livelihood grants, behavioral nudges, early childhood development activities, linkages to existing rural development programs and social services such as nutrition, vaccination, and family planning. All three programs’ midline impact evaluation results show tangible positive impacts on beneficiaries. 3. The third additional financing is extending coverage to 9 additional districts in 5 additional regions, bringing the total number of beneficiaries to around 4 million people, with an emphasis on those that remain vulnerable to current and future crises, in particular those caused by climate change. It also aims to digitalize registration, develop an electronic payment system, strengthen grievance redress and community engagement, systematize community monitoring and evaluation, and plan for the establishment of a social registry. The third additional financing also includes an Urban Pilot for poor and vulnerable households living in urban areas who have been affected by the COVID-19 crisis. 4. Following the severe impact of the COVID-19 crisis, which caused income per capita to fall to record lows in 2020 at 45 percent below the 1960 level, the poor have been further affected by the country’s extreme vulnerability to climate driven natural disasters. A series of cyclones hit Madagascar in January and February 2022, cumulatively affecting at least 420,000 people according to the National Office for Risk and Disaster Management (BNGRC), though this estimate likely underestimates the real impact. Estimates of damage to social infrastructure includes 73 health facilities damaged, 2562 classrooms destroyed, 1085 classrooms without a roof, The World Bank Social Safety Net Project (P149323) and 901 classrooms partially destroyed. The impact of the cyclones comes in addition to the continuing droughts in the South which have caused up to 60 percent of the region’s population to suffer from food insecurity. 5. Through its Crisis Response Sub-Component, the SSNP is at the forefront of the Bank’s ongoing response to the recent cyclones. The Bank and Government have agreed to make available approximately US$42 million of SSNP resources for cyclone response through unconditional cash transfers (200,000 households), cash for work (222 sub-projects), and infrastructure rehabilitation (25 schools and health posts). The response has already begun using US$12.8 million available in the project’s Crisis Response Sub-Component.1 On April 4, 2022, the Government requested a restructuring of the project to reallocate SDR 21,844,000 (US$29,834,000 equivalent) to the disbursement categories related to the Crisis Response Sub-Component to make available the remaining resources required for the cyclone response.2 6. This reallocation, while critical for the crisis response, will divert a large amount of resources initially intended to finance the implementation of the HDCT and PSNP non-emergency programs. Discussions are ongoing regarding the possible ways of mobilizing new resources to permit the continuation of these programs. II. DESCRIPTION OF PROPOSED CHANGES 7. This level 2 restructuring proposes two key changes: 1) a reallocation of project resources and 2) revisions to the results framework to reflect the impact of the reallocation on project activities. 8. Reallocation of project resources. An amount of SDR 21,844,000 (US$29,834,000 equivalent) will be reallocated from category 1(a) (Productive cash for work under the PSNP and direct cash transfers under HDCT) to the following categories: a. SDR 1,979,000 (US$2,703,000 equivalent) to category 1(b) (Cash for work and infrastructure rehabilitation subproject works under the Crisis Response Sub-Component) b. SDR 19,865,000 (US$27,131,000 equivalent) to category 1(c) (Unconditional cash transfers under the Crisis Response Sub-Component) 9. Revisions to intermediate results indicator targets. As a result of the reallocation of resources, the amounts available for crisis response activities will increase and the amount allocated to HDCT and PNSP will decrease. The project is still expected to attain all PDO indicators. At the level of intermediate indicators, the following changes to the results framework are proposed: a. An increase in the number of beneficiaries of unconditional cash transfers for crisis response from 350,000 households to 410,000 households. 1 The third additional financing allocated US$30 million to the Crisis Response Sub-Component. US$12.8 million is the available amount for cyclone response after taking into account the pre-existing commitments to support the ongoing drought response in the South. 2 Letter No. 414-2022-MEF/SG/DGT/DDP/SSP/Unité 2/RS The World Bank Social Safety Net Project (P149323) b. A decrease in the number of PSNP beneficiaries from 260,000 households to 200,000 households, and a decrease in the number the employment days created under the PSNP from 25,000,000 person days to 19,000,000 person days. 10. To eliminate duplicate indicators, one of two identical indicators on beneficiaries of unconditional cash transfers for crisis response is marked for deletion. Several indicators are also revised in the results framework to reflect changes in the expected yearly progress towards their achievement, though their targets for the end of the project remain unchanged. III. SUMMARY OF CHANGES Changed Not Changed Results Framework ✔ Components and Cost ✔ Reallocation between Disbursement Categories ✔ Disbursement Estimates ✔ Implementation Schedule ✔ Implementing Agency ✔ DDO Status ✔ Project's Development Objectives ✔ PBCs ✔ Loan Closing Date(s) ✔ Cancellations Proposed ✔ Disbursements Arrangements ✔ Overall Risk Rating ✔ Safeguard Policies Triggered ✔ EA category ✔ Legal Covenants ✔ Institutional Arrangements ✔ Financial Management ✔ Procurement ✔ Other Change(s) ✔ The World Bank Social Safety Net Project (P149323) Economic and Financial Analysis ✔ Technical Analysis ✔ Social Analysis ✔ Environmental Analysis ✔ IV. DETAILED CHANGE(S) OPS_DETAILEDCHANGES_COMPONENTS_TABLE COMPONENTS Current Current Proposed Proposed Cost Action Component Name Component Name Cost (US$M) (US$M) Component 1: Building a safety Component 1: Building a safety 254.40 Revised net for the poor in selected 254.40 net for the poor in selected areas areas Component 2: Strengthening Component 2: Strengthening safety net administration, safety net administration, 47.80 Revised 47.80 monitoring and social monitoring and social accountability accountability Component 3: Building the Component 3: Building the institutional capacity for institutional capacity for coordination, monitoring and 12.80 Revised coordination, monitoring and 12.80 evaluation of the social evaluation of the social protection system protection system TOTAL 315.00 315.00 OPS_DETAILEDCHANGES_REALLOCATION _TABLE REALLOCATION BETWEEN DISBURSEMENT CATEGORIES Financing % Current Allocation Actuals + Committed Proposed Allocation (Type Total) Current Proposed IDA-D7740-001 | Currency: XDR iLap Category Sequence No: 1(A) Current Expenditure Category: Prod.Csh W7dir trsfr PA1 51,563,000.00 0.00 29,719,000.00 100.00 100.00 The World Bank Social Safety Net Project (P149323) iLap Category Sequence No: 1(B) Current Expenditure Category: Cash W infr.rehab.PtA.3(a&b) 8,440,000.00 0.00 10,419,000.00 100.00 100.00 iLap Category Sequence No: 1(C) Current Expenditure Category: Unc.cash tr PtA3(c)(i) 10,212,000.00 0.00 30,077,000.00 100.00 100.00 iLap Category Sequence No: 1(D) Current Expenditure Category: Liv.rec.subgr&CS PtA2(b) 3,385,000.00 0.00 3,385,000.00 100.00 100.00 iLap Category Sequence No: 2 Current Expenditure Category: G,W,N/CS,O,T A.3c(ii)&B 20,249,500.00 0.00 20,249,500.00 100.00 100.00 iLap Category Sequence No: 3 Current Expenditure Category: G,W,N/CS,O,T PtC 3,473,000.00 0.00 3,473,000.00 100.00 100.00 iLap Category Sequence No: 4(A) Current Expenditure Category: Urban C.T PA.4(a&b) 5,664,000.00 0.00 5,664,000.00 100.00 100.00 iLap Category Sequence No: 4(B) Current Expenditure Category: Urban C.W trsfr Pt A.4.c 476,500.00 0.00 476,500.00 100.00 100.00 iLap Category Sequence No: 5 Current Expenditure Category: G,W,N/CS,O,T PtA.4(b&d) 737,000.00 0.00 737,000.00 100.00 100.00 Total 104,200,000.00 0.00 104,200,000.00 OPS_DETAILEDCHANGES_DISBURSEMENT_TABLE DISBURSEMENT ESTIMATES Change in Disbursement Estimates Yes The World Bank Social Safety Net Project (P149323) Year Current Proposed 2016 4,046,283.00 4,046,283.00 2017 22,368,153.00 22,368,153.00 2018 24,175,700.00 24,175,700.00 2019 21,665,222.00 21,665,222.00 2020 39,292,222.00 39,292,222.00 2021 30,000,000.00 30,000,000.00 2022 50,000,000.00 90,000,000.00 2023 50,000,000.00 50,000,000.00 2024 53,451,416.00 30,000,000.00 2025 15,000,000.00 3,452,420.00 . The World Bank Social Safety Net Project (P149323) . Results framework COUNTRY: Madagascar Social Safety Net Project Project Development Objectives(s) To support the Government in increasing the access of extremely poor households to safety net services and in laying the foundations for a social protection system, and accelerating the COVID-19 social protection response. Project Development Objective Indicators by Objectives/ Outcomes RESULT_FRAME_TBL_PDO Indicator Name PBC Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 3 4 5 6 Building a safety net for the poor in selected areas (Action: This Objective has been Revised) Direct project 0.00 25,000.00 700,000.00 800,000.00 1,935,000.00 3,650,000.00 3,700,000.00 3,900,000.00 beneficiaries (Number) Action: This indicator has been Revised Female beneficiaries 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 65.00 65.00 70.00 (Percentage) Percentage of beneficiaries of the safety net programs 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 70.00 75.00 75.00 (HDCT, PSN) belonging to the 30% poorest population. (Percentage) Percentage of primary school aged children of 0.00 65.00 70.00 75.00 80.00 80.00 80.00 HDCT beneficiary families who attend school at The World Bank Social Safety Net Project (P149323) RESULT_FRAME_TBL_PDO Indicator Name PBC Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 3 4 5 6 least 80% of the time (Percentage) Pregnant/lactating women, adolescent girls and/or children under 0.00 0.00 55,000.00 70,000.00 85,000.00 93,000.00 93,000.00 60,900.00 age five-reached by basic nutrition services (number) (Number) Children under age five treated for moderate or severe 0.00 0.00 10,000.00 30,000.00 35,000.00 38,200.00 38,200.00 38,400.00 acute malnutrition (number) (Number) Children under the age of 24 months benefiting from improved infant and 0.00 22,500.00 young child feeding (IYCF) practices (Number) Beneficiaries of cash transfers in urban areas 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 18,000.00 22,500,000.00 27,000.00 (Number) Building institutional capacity for coordination, M&E of the social protection system Integrated beneficiary registry established at No No No Yes Yes Yes Yes MPSPWP (Yes/No) PDO Table SPACE The World Bank Social Safety Net Project (P149323) Intermediate Results Indicators by Components RESULT_FRAME_TBL_IO Indicator Name PBC Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 3 4 5 6 Component 1: Building a safety net for the poor in selected areas (Action: This Component has been Revised) Percentage of safety net beneficiaries in the South using the livelihood grant 0.00 0.00 60.00 80.00 80.00 80.00 80.00 for productive activities (Percentage) Children 0 to 59 months monitored at the 0.00 0.00 35,000.00 40,000.00 45,000.00 50,000.00 50,700.00 50,700.00 community nutrition sites (Number) Beneficiaries of Safety Nets programs (number) 5,000.00 23,400.00 81,000.00 90,500.00 387,000.00 730,000.00 740,000.00 780,000.00 (CRI, Number) Action: This indicator has been Revised Beneficiaries of Safety Nets programs - Conditional cash 5,000.00 23,400.00 39,000.00 39,000.00 39,000.00 120,000.00 130,000.00 170,000.00 transfers (number) (Number) Beneficiaries of Safety Nets programs - 4,000.00 16,000.00 56,700.00 63,300.00 251,500.00 474,500.00 481,000.00 500,000.00 Female (number) (Number) The World Bank Social Safety Net Project (P149323) RESULT_FRAME_TBL_IO Indicator Name PBC Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 3 4 5 6 Action: This indicator has been Revised Beneficiaries of Safety Nets programs - Cash- for-work, food-for- work and public works 0.00 0.00 42,000.00 51,500.00 88,000.00 200,000.00 200,000.00 200,000.00 including for crisis response for natural disasters (Number) Action: This indicator has been Revised Number of landscape development plans developed in a 0.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 157.00 230.00 250.00 participatory way (Number) Areas treated with soil and water conservation 0.00 0.00 100.00 400.00 700.00 1,300.00 2,000.00 2,500.00 (SWC) measures (Hectare(Ha)) Area re/afforested through productive 0.00 0.00 60.00 240.00 420.00 700.00 1,300.00 1,800.00 safety net activities (Hectare(Ha)) Number of employment days created under the 0.00 0.00 1,880,000.00 4,680,000.00 7,470,000.00 12,000,000.00 19,000,000.00 19,000,000.00 PSN and disaster The World Bank Social Safety Net Project (P149323) RESULT_FRAME_TBL_IO Indicator Name PBC Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 3 4 5 6 response Cash for Work activities (Number) Action: This indicator has been Revised Percentage of community assets maintained one 0.00 0.00 0.00 60.00 70.00 80.00 80.00 year after their completion (Percentage) Beneficiaries of crisis response unconditional 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 260,000.00 410,000.00 410,000.00 410,000.00 cash transfers (Number) Action: This indicator has been Revised Beneficiary households who are members of Village Savings and Loan 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 15,000.00 18,000.00 30,000.00 42,000.00 Associations (VSLAs) (Number) Female beneficiary households 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 30.00 50.00 60.00 65.00 (Percentage) Beneficiaries of crisis response unconditional 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 260,000.00 270,000.00 300,000.00 350,000.00 cash transfers (Number) Action: This indicator has been Marked for Deletion Component 2: Strengthening safety net administration, monitoring and social accountability The World Bank Social Safety Net Project (P149323) RESULT_FRAME_TBL_IO Indicator Name PBC Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 3 4 5 6 Percentage of registered complaints that have 90.00 90.00 90.00 90.00 90.00 90.00 90.00 95.00 been addressed by FID (Percentage) Operational costs of FID as a percentage of program implementation 20.00 20.00 19.00 18.00 17.00 16.20 16.20 expenditures (Percentage) Sites with participatory monitoring and 15.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 evaluation process established (Percentage) Beneficiary households receiving cash transfer 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.00 30.00 50.00 via new technology (Percentage) Female beneficiary households 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.00 30.00 50.00 (Percentage) Component 3: Building the institutional capacity for coordination, monitoring and evaluation of the social protection system Establishment of a social protection program No No No Yes Yes Yes Yes monitoring system at the MPSPPW (Yes/No) Impact Evaluation carried out and results available No No No No Yes Yes Yes publicly (Yes/No) The World Bank Social Safety Net Project (P149323) RESULT_FRAME_TBL_IO Indicator Name PBC Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 3 4 5 6 Number of Agreements with government, non- government and development partners signed by the MPSPPW 1.00 1.00 1.00 3.00 5.00 6.00 6.00 to harmonize the social sector related programs and activities in the South of Madagascar (Number) Regional Social Protection committees established and 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.00 3.00 7.00 functioning through regular meetings (Number) IO Table SPACE The World Bank Social Safety Net Project (P149323)