Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No: ICR00004937 IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION AND RESULTS REPORT ON LOAN 8582-GA IN THE AMOUNT OF EURO 94.6 MILLION (US$100 MILLION EQUIVALENT) TO THE GABONESE REPUBLIC FOR THE Gabon - Skills Development and Employability Project November 28, 2023 Education Global Practice Western And Central Africa Region CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (Exchange Rate Effective Sep 08, 2023) Currency Unit = Central African CFA franc (XAF) XAF 615 = US$1 SDR 0.76 = US$1 US$ 1.32 = SDR 1 FISCAL YEAR July 1 - June 30 Regional Vice President: Ousmane Diagana Country Director: Cheick Fantamady Kante Regional Director: Luis Benveniste Practice Manager: Scherezad Joya Monami Latif Task Team Leader: Margaret M. Clarke ICR Main Contributor: Bernard Yungu Loleka ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS CPF Country Partnership Framework CPS Country Partnership Strategy E&S Environmental and Social FM Financial Management GDP Gross Domestic Product ICR Implementation Completion and Results Report ICT Information and Communications Technologies IPF Investment Project Financing IRI Intermediate Results Indicator IRR Internal Rate of Return M&E Monitoring and Evaluation MPA Multiphase Programmatic Approach MTR Mid-Term Review NPV Net Present Value OHS Occupational Health and Safety ONE Office National de l'Emploi [National Office for Employment] PAD Project Appraisal Document PCU Project Coordination Unit PDO Project Development Objective PNPE Pôle national pour la promotion de l'emploi [National Pole for the Promotion of Employment] PPP Public Private Partnership PSGE Plan Stratégique Gabon Émergent [Strategic Plan for an Emerging Gabon] TVET Technical and Vocational Education and Training TABLE OF CONTENTS DATA SHEET .......................................................................................................................... 1 I. PROJECT CONTEXT AND DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES ....................................................... 5 A. CONTEXT AT APPRAISAL .........................................................................................................5 B. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING IMPLEMENTATION ................................................................8 II. OUTCOME .................................................................................................................... 11 A. RELEVANCE OF PDOs ............................................................................................................ 12 B. ACHIEVEMENT OF PDOs (EFFICACY) ...................................................................................... 12 C. EFFICIENCY ........................................................................................................................... 16 D. JUSTIFICATION OF OVERALL OUTCOME RATING .................................................................... 17 E. OTHER OUTCOMES AND IMPACTS ......................................................................................... 18 III. KEY FACTORS THAT AFFECTED IMPLEMENTATION AND OUTCOME ................................ 19 A. KEY FACTORS DURING PREPARATION ................................................................................... 19 B. KEY FACTORS DURING IMPLEMENTATION ............................................................................. 20 IV. BANK PERFORMANCE, COMPLIANCE ISSUES, AND RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME .. 21 A. QUALITY OF MONITORING AND EVALUATION (M&E) ............................................................ 21 B. ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, AND FIDUCIARY COMPLIANCE ..................................................... 21 C. BANK PERFORMANCE ........................................................................................................... 23 D. RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME ....................................................................................... 23 V. LESSONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ............................................................................. 24 ANNEX 1. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND KEY OUTPUTS ........................................................... 26 ANNEX 2. BANK LENDING AND IMPLEMENTATION SUPPORT/SUPERVISION ......................... 39 ANNEX 3. PROJECT COST BY COMPONENT ........................................................................... 42 ANNEX 4. EFFICIENCY ANALYSIS ........................................................................................... 43 ANNEX 5. BORROWER, CO-FINANCIER AND OTHER PARTNER/STAKEHOLDER COMMENTS ... 45 ANNEX 6. SUPPORTING DOCUMENTS .................................................................................. 46 The World Bank Gabon - Skills Development and Employability Project (P146152) DATA SHEET BASIC INFORMATION Product Information Project ID Project Name P146152 Gabon - Skills Development and Employability Project Country Financing Instrument Gabon Investment Project Financing Original EA Category Revised EA Category Partial Assessment (B) Partial Assessment (B) Organizations Borrower Implementing Agency Ministry for the Economy and Recovery Technical and Vocational Education Ministry Project Development Objective (PDO) Original PDO

The objective of the project is to improve effectiveness of vocational training, short term skills development, and entrepreneurship programs in key growth sectors in the Gabonese Republic.

Page 1 of 46 The World Bank Gabon - Skills Development and Employability Project (P146152) FINANCING Original Amount (US$) Revised Amount (US$) Actual Disbursed (US$) World Bank Financing 100,000,000 63,123,725 65,981,162 IBRD-85820 Total 100,000,000 63,123,725 65,981,162 Non-World Bank Financing 0 0 0 Borrower/Recipient 0 0 0 Total 0 0 0 Total Project Cost 100,000,000 63,123,725 65,981,162 KEY DATES Approval Effectiveness MTR Review Original Closing Actual Closing 10-Feb-2016 13-Dec-2016 08-Nov-2018 31-Dec-2021 30-Apr-2023 RESTRUCTURING AND/OR ADDITIONAL FINANCING Date(s) Amount Disbursed (US$M) Key Revisions 19-Apr-2019 14.21 Change in Results Framework Change in Components and Cost Cancellation of Financing Reallocation between Disbursement Categories Change in Institutional Arrangements Change in Implementation Schedule 13-Oct-2021 38.05 Change in Results Framework Change in Components and Cost Change in Loan Closing Date(s) Reallocation between Disbursement Categories Change in Implementation Schedule 20-Dec-2022 61.93 Change in Loan Closing Date(s) Reallocation between Disbursement Categories Page 2 of 46 The World Bank Gabon - Skills Development and Employability Project (P146152) KEY RATINGS Outcome Bank Performance M&E Quality Moderately Satisfactory Satisfactory Substantial RATINGS OF PROJECT PERFORMANCE IN ISRs Actual No. Date ISR Archived DO Rating IP Rating Disbursements (US$M) 01 09-Jun-2016 Satisfactory Satisfactory 0 02 15-Dec-2016 Satisfactory Satisfactory 0 03 12-Jun-2017 Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 5.17 04 27-Dec-2017 Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 5.75 05 29-Jun-2018 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Unsatisfactory 7.45 Moderately 06 25-Jan-2019 Moderately Unsatisfactory 14.21 Unsatisfactory 07 26-Jun-2019 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Unsatisfactory 14.21 08 29-Dec-2019 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Unsatisfactory 25.34 09 30-Jun-2020 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 33.49 10 28-Jan-2021 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 36.27 11 04-Aug-2021 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 36.57 12 21-Mar-2022 Satisfactory Satisfactory 45.25 13 16-Nov-2022 Moderately Satisfactory Satisfactory 60.31 SECTORS AND THEMES Sectors Major Sector/Sector (%) Education 100 Public Administration - Education 15 Workforce Development and Vocational Education 85 Page 3 of 46 The World Bank Gabon - Skills Development and Employability Project (P146152) Themes Major Theme/ Theme (Level 2)/ Theme (Level 3) (%) Private Sector Development 110 Jobs 100 Public Private Partnerships 10 Human Development and Gender 102 Education 84 Access to Education 21 Science and Technology 21 Teachers 21 Standards, Curriculum and Textbooks 21 Labor Market Policy and Programs 18 Labor Market Institutions 9 Active Labor Market Programs 9 ADM STAFF Role At Approval At ICR Regional Vice President: Makhtar Diop Ousmane Diagana Country Director: Elisabeth Huybens Cheick Fantamady Kante Director: Claudia Maria Costin Luis Benveniste Practice Manager: Peter Nicolas Materu Scherezad Joya Monami Latif Task Team Leader(s): Hamoud Abdel Wedoud Kamil Margaret M. Clarke ICR Contributing Author: Bernard Yungu Loleka Page 4 of 46 The World Bank Gabon - Skills Development and Employability Project (P146152) I. PROJECT CONTEXT AND DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES A. CONTEXT AT APPRAISAL Context 1. At the time of appraisal, Gabon was experiencing limited economic growth due to a decline in petroleum production from its peak in 1997. The oil sector constituted 80 percent of the country’s exports, 45 percent of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and 60 percent of its fiscal revenues. Other sectors were unable to adequately offset this dependence. Despite its political stability and relatively high GDP per capita of US$10,660, Gabon faced challenges in diversifying its economy. Forestry-related activities emerged as a promising option in this pursuit for diversification. However, the industry suffered from a shortage of skilled workers and insufficient infrastructure. 2. Although classified as an upper-middle-income country, Gabon’s human development outcomes were lower than those of countries with similar income levels and were accompanied by a significant degree of income inequality.1 The top 20 percent of the country’s 1.8 million inhabitants received 50 percent of the national income, while around 33 percent of the population lived in poverty. 3. Widespread informal economic activity and a poorly skilled workforce limited the potential for jobs to serve as a pathway out of poverty. Youth unemployment was particularly high, with 35.7 percent of 15- to 24-year-olds out of work. Gabon needed a holistic strategy to accelerate inclusive and job-creating economic growth, accompanied by job-relevant skills training. 4. The technical and vocational education and training (TVET) sector in Gabon was the main source of job- relevant skills training, but it faced several challenges , including low enrollment rates, limited quality of program offerings, and limited private sector involvement. The majority of TVET institutions were concentrated in urban areas. Additionally, TVET graduates often struggled to find employment due to a mismatch between the skills sought by firms and the training provided. 5. Rationale for World Bank support: Gabon’s lack of economic diversification, high unemployment, and poorly- skilled-population were limiting the country’s ability to achieve its overall development objectives. The World Bank’s global experience with job-relevant education and skills training programs was seen as an important contribution to helping the country reorient its TVET sector to be part of the solution. The Project contributed to Pillar 2 (Competitiveness and Employment) of the Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) for FY2012-FY2016 as well as to Gabon’s national economic diversification and skills development objectives2. 1 In the 2014 United Nations Development Programme Human Development Index, Gabon ranked 112 out of 187 countries. 2 The Project targeted a broad range of key growth sectors: for example, ‘green’ growth, wood processing, food processing, agriculture, information and communications technology, and construction in accordance with the PSGE (Plan Stratégique Gabon Émergent). The PSGE was adopted by the government of Gabon in 2009 as the country’s medium-term strategy (for the period 2012 through 2025) for promoting economic development. Page 5 of 46 The World Bank Gabon - Skills Development and Employability Project (P146152) Theory of Change (Results Chain) 6. The Project Appraisal Document (PAD) for the Gabon-Skills Development and Employability Project did not include a Theory of Change. The Theory of Change (Figure 1) for this Implementation Completion and Results Report (ICR) was constructed ex post, based on the Project’s Results Framework. The Project was designed to address the skills mismatch evident in the labor market and the low employability of youth by (i) improving and extending vocational training in key growth sectors, (ii) providing skills development to address the needs of unemployed youth (graduates and school leavers), and (iii) providing entrepreneurship training and start-up capital to promote youth employment through the development of entrepreneurial initiatives. Figure 1: Theory of Change Component Activities/Inputs Outputs Outcomes Sub-component 1.1 • Number of youth enrolled in TVET Improve effectiveness Construction and equipping of two new training institutions for priority sectors of vocational training institutions in priority growth sectors (public • Number of youth enrolled in programs in key works sector/wood/ICT) to benefit restructured vocational institutions growth sectors in the approximately 9,300 youth aged 16-24, at least • Number of TVET institutions with Gabonese Republic. Extension of 30 percent female. public-private board of directors Training Supply • Number of signed PPP agreements and Quality Sub-component 1.2 • Number of programs with revised Improvement in Restructuring and upgrading at least 14 of the and implemented curricula TVET in Key 20 existing TVET institutions through PBCs to • Number of school managers and Growth Sectors increase service delivery and efficiency of the trainers trained supported training institutes to benefit • Number of TVET institutions approximately 4,800 students. rehabilitated Sub-component 2.1 • Number of youth enrolled in Improve effectiveness Placement of 3,000 youth aged 16-24 in apprenticeship program of short-term skills apprenticeships with monthly stipends, accident • Number of youth enrolled in development and medical insurance, implemented through: (i) internship program programs in key workshop and classroom instruction for urban growth sectors in the apprenticeships, and (ii) technically supervised Gabonese Republic. short-term workplace training to help rural and peri-urban workers develop professional skills. Employability Sub-component 2.2 Development, Internships to support graduates from higher Youth Integration education and TVET institutions to find jobs. Addresses graduates’ practical skills deficit. Supports placement of 3,500 unemployed graduates, aged 34 and below, in professional internships, 30 percent female. Entrepreneurship Sub-component 2.3 • Number of beneficiaries trained in Improve effectiveness Promotion Promote employment of 2,000 youth aged 16-34 entrepreneurship of entrepreneurship through the development of • Number of reviewed business plans programs in key entrepreneurial initiatives by helping trainees: (i) developed as a result of project growth sectors in the build company strategies, (ii) get start-up intervention Gabonese Republic. capital, and (iii) consolidate their enterprises. Page 6 of 46 The World Bank Gabon - Skills Development and Employability Project (P146152) Project Development Objective (PDO) 7. The PDO was to improve effectiveness of vocational training, short term skills development, and entrepreneurship programs in key growth sectors in the Gabonese Republic . The PDO statement in the PAD and Legal Agreement are the same. Key Expected Outcomes and Outcome Indicators 8. There were six original PDO indicators (see Table 1 below), supplemented by 11 intermediate results indicators (IRIs). PDO Part 1 - “improve effectiveness of vocational training” was to be measured by PDO indicators 1 (“Direct project beneficiaries”), 5 (“TVET institutions with functioning board of directors”), and 6 (“Public-Private Partnership joint management agreements signed”). PDO Part 2 - “improve effectiveness of short-term skills development,” was to be measured by PDO indicators 1, 2 (“Youth graduating from TVET institutions supported by the project”), 3 (“Youth who have completed apprenticeship program”), and 4 (“Youth who have completed internship program”). PDO Part 3 - “improve effectiveness of entrepreneurship programs” was to be measured by PDO indicator 1. Measurement of this PDO part was further bolstered through the addition of two new indicators during the 2019 restructuring of the Project (see Table 1). All beneficiary-focused indicators (PDO and IRI) included sub-targets for female participation. Components 9. Component 1 - Extension of Training Supply and Quality Improvement in TVET in Key Growth Sectors (US$65 million; Actual expenditure = US$40 million). Component 1 aimed to improve access to vocational training and enhance the quality of training in sectors with high employment potential. This was to be achieved through (i) the establishment of two new vocational training institutions focused on wood/construction and Information and Communications Technologies (ICT), and (ii) the improvement of existing TVET institutions. Public-private partnerships (PPPs) were to be used to improve management and curriculum development in these training centers. 10. Component 2 - Employability Development, Youth Integration, and Entrepreneurship Promotion (US$20 million; Actual expenditure = US$15 million). Component 2 focused on promoting the integration of young people into the labor market through various strategies, which included developing their entrepreneurial skills, providing work experience, and offering training opportunities. 11. Component 3 - Institutional Capacity Support and Project Implementation (US$15 million; Actual expenditure = US$11 million). This component focused on strengthening the institutional and management capacity of key ministries (Ministry of Vocational Training and Youth Integration and Ministry of National Education and Technical Education) and enforcement agencies (such as the National Office for Employment [ONE]) through the provision of Page 7 of 46 The World Bank Gabon - Skills Development and Employability Project (P146152) technical assistance and the creation of a mechanism to facilitate coordination and collaboration. This component also financed the Project Coordination Unit’s (PCU) coordination and management activities. B. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING IMPLEMENTATION Revised PDOs and Outcome Targets 12. The Project underwent three restructurings (2019, 2021, 2022), the first (2019) of which was the most significant. The 2019 restructuring involved several adjustments to the PDO indicators in order to better align them with the revised scope and implementation schedule for the Project. The graduation indicator was removed due to the Project’s delayed schedule for the construction and opening of the training centers. Two PDO indicators were added to capture the employment-related impacts of the apprenticeship, internship, and entrepreneurial activities supported under the Project. In addition, the targets for the overall number of Project beneficiaries and the governance-related indicators were decreased to align with the Project's reduced scope. These changes are summarized in Table 1. Table 1: Revisions to PDO Indicators in April 2019 Restructuring Original PDO Indicators April 2019 Revisions 1. Direct Project beneficiaries (Number) Target value changed: Revised downwards from 18,100 (Percentage female) beneficiaries to 12,573 beneficiaries 2. Youth graduating from TVET institutions Indicator was removed supported by the project (Percentage) (Percentage female) Indicator added: Share of youth having completed a training (apprenticeship or internship) supported by the Project employed or self-employed one year after the end of the program (Percentage) (Percentage female) 3. Youth who have completed apprenticeship No change program (Percentage) (Percentage female) 4. Youth who completed internship program No change (Percentage) (Percentage female) Indicator added: Number of youth having started the implementation of income generation activities 5. TVET institutions with functioning board of Target value changed: Revised downwards from 8 to 6 directors (Number) 6. Signed Public Private Partnership joint Target value changed: Revised downwards from 12 to 4 management agreements signed (Number) Revised Components 13. The 2019 restructuring also involved revisions to the scope of Project components. This was done to ensure timely completion of select activities critical to achievement of the PDO. Changes included the following: Page 8 of 46 The World Bank Gabon - Skills Development and Employability Project (P146152) a. Component 1. Extension of Training Supply and Quality Improvement in TVET in Key Growth Sectors (reduced from US$65 million to US$34.65 million). o Subcomponent 1.1: Creation of Two New Training Institutions in Priority Growth Sectors. The allocation to this sub-component was slightly reduced from US$30 million to US$27.35 million. Despite delays in the completion of the feasibility and architectural studies, the two facilities were expected to be completed within the initially agreed timeframe. However, the scope of work was reduced due to high costs, resulting in smaller sporting facilities and reduced boarding facilities. o Subcomponent 1.2: Quality Improvement and Upgrading of Existing TVET Institutions. The total amount allocated to this sub-component was reduced from US$35 million to US$7.3 million. This was due to a decision to narrow the scope of work to the upgradation of four TVET institutions instead of the originally planned fourteen. A combination of significant delays in the development of strategic business plans for each institution, along with a desire to more strategically leverage the efforts and support of other development partners working in the TVET sector, led to this decision (for example, the African Development Bank was also financing the restructuring and upgrading of TVET institutions through an investment project approved in 2016). b. Component 2. Employability Development, Youth Integration, and Entrepreneurship Promotion (reduced from US$20 million to US$17.93 million). o Subcomponent 2.1. Apprenticeship. The sub-component allocation was decreased from US$11 million to US$8.59 million. The apprenticeship program for rural and agricultural jobs was moved to the internship program while the target for the number of youth in urban apprenticeships was increased to 2,400. o Subcomponent 2.2. Internship. The sub-component allocation was increased from US$4 million to US$7.3 million. The target for youth participation was boosted from 3,500 to 3,800. The training-adaptation program for rural and agricultural jobs was also modified to support 500 youth instead of the initially planned 1,000. o Subcomponent 2.3. Entrepreneurship promotion. The allocation to this sub-component was reduced from US$5 million to US$2.04 million due to a reduction in the number of youth beneficiaries from 2,000 to 873. c. Component 3. Institutional Capacity Support and Project Implementation (reduced from US$10 million to US$7 million). The component allocation was reduced in recognition of the reduction in the scope of Project activities and related capacity support and implementation oversight needs. Other Changes 14. Other changes carried out as part of the 2019 restructuring included: a. Changes in Project implementation. The institutional arrangements for implementation of the entrepreneurship sub-component (2.3) were changed to include a combination of ONE (responsible for management of youth at the end of their apprenticeship), the National Agency for Professional Training and Development (Agence nationale pour la formation et le développement professionnels) (oversaw integration of new modules into the training programs run by the training centers), and private structures (actual execution). Page 9 of 46 The World Bank Gabon - Skills Development and Employability Project (P146152) b. Cancellation of funds. US$39.42 million of the initial US$100 million was cancelled.3 This was linked to the change in scope of Project activities under Components 1 and 2. c. Changes in allocations between Categories of Expenditure. The cancellation of funds also led to a change in allocations by category of expenditure. The major changes concerned Category 2, with a massive reduction due to the revised design of Subcomponent 1.2, and Category 4, to incorporate the increased scope of Subcomponent 2.2. 15. A second restructuring in 2021 extended the Project closing date by 12 months from December 31, 2021 to December 30, 2022. This was to allow sufficient time for the completion of some critical activities, as clarified below, delayed, inter alia, due to the closure of training institutions and other repercussions of the COVID-19 pandemic. 16. The 2021 restructuring also involved the reallocation of funds across Project components and minor modifications to the Results Framework (i.e., changing the end date for the end targets), implementation schedule, and disbursement estimates to reflect the aforementioned adjustments and the new Project closing date. Key changes included: a. Component 1. Extension of Training Supply and Quality Improvement in TVET in Key Growth Sectors (original amount US$ 34.65 million, revised amount US$ 40.09 million) o Subcomponent 1.1. Creation of Two New Training Institutions in Priority Growth Sectors (increased from US$ 27.35 million to US$32.79 million). The increase was to accommodate some important changes in the scope of construction that had been requested by the government (i.e., addition of kitchen, restaurant for students and trainers, and infirmary). o Subcomponent 1.2: Quality Improvement and Upgrading of Existing TVET Institutions (amount of US$ 7.3 million unchanged). While the total financing for this sub-component remained unchanged, the Project incorporated small changes requested by the government. b. Component 2. Employability Development, Youth Integration, and Entrepreneurship Promotion (reduced from US$ 17.93 million to US$ 15.16 million) o Subcomponent 2.1. Apprenticeship (reduced from US$ 8.59 million to US$ 8.09 million). This activity concluded earlier than anticipated because the government wanted to focus its efforts on other Project areas given the limited time remaining, resulting in a slight decrease in the amount allocated to this subcomponent. By not financing any additional apprentices, the restructuring allowed cost savings of about US$0.5 million. These savings were re-allocated to Component 1 (construction and rehabilitation activities). o Subcomponent 2.2. Internship (reduced from US$ 7.3 million to US$ 5.13 million). This reduction was due to a decrease in the targets for internships. The cost savings were re-allocated to Component 1. o Subcomponent 2.3. Entrepreneurship promotion (reduced from US$ 2.04 million to US$1.94 million). Due to delays and difficulties faced by implementation agencies, only 200 youth were supported instead of the originally anticipated 300. This resulted in cost savings of about US$0.1 million, which were reallocated to Component 1. 3 The total Project amount fluctuated throughout the lifetime of the Project due to currency exchange fluctuations. Page 10 of 46 The World Bank Gabon - Skills Development and Employability Project (P146152) c. Component 3. Institutional Capacity Support and Project Implementation (increased from US$ 7.00 million to US$ 11.02 million). The allocation for this sub-component was increased to support the TVET sector’s efforts to cope with the COVID-19 pandemic. The increased allocation supported the implementation of a mobile tool to monitor the internship program, the establishment of a digital platform for ONE, and a study on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on employment. 17. A third restructuring took place in 2022 to extend the Project closing date. The construction of the new centers had been delayed due to disruptions in global supply chains caused by COVID-19. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine further complicated matters by delaying the arrival of key equipment for the centers. This, in turn, affected the training of trainers, the opening of the new centers, and the enrollment of beneficiaries. In response to this, the Project end date was extended by four months, to April 30, 2023, to allow time for the delayed equipment to arrive and be installed and for the trainers to be trained on it. This restructuring also involved a small reallocation of funds between expenditure categories to better support the implementation of planned reforms, particularly the modernization of the skills development framework. Rationale for Changes and Their Implication for the Original Theory of Change 18. The aforementioned changes did not affect the original theory of change but rather enhanced the Project’s ability to show progress toward achievement of the PDO. The Project continued to focus on achieving the same basic outcomes, albeit with some changes to the end targets to reflect the narrowed Project scope. The 2019, 2021, and 2022 restructurings were needed in part because this was the first World Bank-funded education and skills project in the country since 1974, and the implementing agency was unfamiliar with World Bank procedures. As a result, the Project suffered from slow disbursement, delayed activities, and some confusion among key implementers and stakeholders over procurement and other World Bank guidelines. The modifications made in response to these issues were all formally approved and documented through the three restructurings described above. II. OUTCOME 19. Given the reduction of Project scope during the 2019 restructurings, the evaluation warrants a split evaluation.4 4The 2019 restructuring involved a reduction in Project scope to ensure the timely completion of activities critical to achieving the PDO, decreasing some of the PDO indicator end targets, deleting one PDO indicator related to the graduation of TVET students considering the delayed implementation schedule, and adding a governance-related PDO indicator to reflect the Project’s focus on reform and impact. Page 11 of 46 The World Bank Gabon - Skills Development and Employability Project (P146152) A. RELEVANCE OF PDOs Assessment of Relevance of PDOs and Rating 20. The PDO had HIGH relevance for the country’s sectoral needs at the time the Project was developed and at Project closing (see Table 3). These needs are captured in the Strategic Plan for an Emerging Gabon (PSGE), which the government adopted in 2009 as a medium-term strategy (2012-2025) for fostering economic development in the country. PSGE prioritized sectors with high potential for growth and employment generation, including construction, wood processing, mining, tourism, the green economy, and ICT. The Project was complementary to existing and planned interventions by other development partners in the areas of TVET access and youth skilling for employment, such as a United Nations Development Program-financed National Project for Youth Employment, which targeted youth aged 16 to 35 and focused on skills development and access to decent jobs; and an African Development Bank project to support the improvement of higher education and vocational training for public services. The PDO was closely tied to the World Bank’s CPS for FY2012 -16, particularly Pillar 2 (Increasing Competitiveness and Employment). Moreover, the PDO complemented other Bank operations at the time, including the Gabon Investment Promotion and Competitiveness Project (P129267), which aimed to improve the investment climate and foster enterprise development; and the eGabon Project (P132824), which aimed to contribute to the development of a local ICT industry capable of creating digital content, applications, and services. 21. The PDO continues to have HIGH relevance for the government’s economic development plans, as described in their recent (2021-2023) Strategic Plan for Acceleration and Transformation (Plan Stratégique pour l'Accélération et la Transformation), which aims to address inequalities, develop infrastructure, and strengthen access to learning in Gabon. The Project is also highly relevant to the World Bank’s Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for FY 2023- 2027, which highlights the importance of a skilled labor force to the country’s economic development. Objective 5 of the CPF aims to support the strengthening of human capital in Gabon as an input to its economic diversification, with a specific focus on technical and vocational skills. Some of this work will be carried out under the Support to Economic Diversification through Nature-Based Sectors Project (P174723), which is currently in the pipeline. B. ACHIEVEMENT OF PDOs (EFFICACY) Assessment of Achievement of Each Objective/Outcome 22. The overall efficacy of achievement of the PDO is rated MODEST prior to the April 2019 restructuring and SUBSTANTIAL after the restructuring. 23. Assessment of the achievement of the PDO is organized around the three key outcomes: (i) improved effectiveness of vocational training in key growth sectors; (ii) improved effectiveness of short-term skills development in key growth sectors; and (iii) improved effectiveness of entrepreneurship programs in key growth sectors. For a detailed overview of activities and progress in each of these areas over the life of the Project, please see Annex 1. 24. Outcome 1: Improved effectiveness of vocational training in key growth sectors. Achievement of this outcome is Modest prior to the April 2019 restructuring and Substantial after the April 2019 restructuring. The outcome was supposed to be achieved through the creation of two new training institutions (one for construction, wood, and public Page 12 of 46 The World Bank Gabon - Skills Development and Employability Project (P146152) works and the second for ICT) and the improvement of training programs in existing institutions that were aligned with key growth sectors in the economy. The outcome was measured by the following PDO-level indicators: (i) Direct beneficiaries of Project interventions (Number) (Percentage female); (ii) TVET institutions with functioning boards of directors (Number); and (iii) PPP joint management agreements signed (Number). The IRIs used to measure this outcome included: (i) Adoption by Government of a regulatory framework on the management of TVET institutions (Yes/No); (ii) Number of youth enrolled in the TVET institutions supported by the Project in the two priority sectors (Number) (Percentage female); (iii) Number of youth enrolled in restructured vocational institutions (Number) (Percentage female); and (iv) Number of programs which have revised and implemented curricula (Number). 25. Of the three PDO-level indicators used to measure this outcome, two (i.e., ‘Direct beneficiaries of Project interventions’ and ‘PPP joint management agreements signed’) had made good progress towards their end targets by Project closing. The end target for direct beneficiaries of Project interventions was revised from 18,100 to 12,573 in 2019 due to changes in the target values for related IRIs. As of the writing of this ICR Report, the Project had 8,462 direct beneficiaries. Although impressive, this number falls short of the original and revised end targets for this indicator. At the same time, the percentage of female direct beneficiaries of Project interventions substantially exceeded the end target of 30 percent, reaching 47 percent by the time of the writing of this ICR Report. This is a significant achievement and highlights the Project's success in promoting gender equality and inclusivity. The shortfall in the overall number of direct beneficiaries is due to the Project encountering some unforeseen challenges and delays. For example, there was a nine-month delay between Board approval and Project effectiveness, further compounded by a delay in the setting up of the PCU, both of which reduced the time available for implementation of Project activities. A contributing factor to these delays was a lack of familiarity with World Bank procedures since this was the first World Bank-funded education and skills project in Gabon since 1974. Despite providing the government with capacity-building support, the Project never overcame these initial holdups. The construction of the two new training centers was behind schedule for much of the Project, although both centers were ultimately completed and equipped by the time of the Project’s closing. Once these new centers are opened at the end of 2023 (after the candidates’ entrance test results are released), the number of direct Project beneficiaries is expected to increase substantially, and the target should be met. In terms of the other two PDO indicators, the target for the number of signed PPP joint management agreements was reduced from twelve to four during the 2019 restructuring, due to a decrease in the number of targeted TVET centers as well as the delayed implementation schedule. While the Project fell short of achieving the original target, it came very close to achieving the revised end target (i.e., three agreements have been signed to date). The end target for the number of TVET institutions with functioning boards of directors was reduced from eight to six during the 2019 restructuring due to a decrease in the number of targeted TVET centers under the Project. However, neither the original nor the revised target for this indicator was achieved and the value remained at zero throughout. 26. Of the four IRIs used to measure progress towards the first outcome area, the end targets for two had been fully met by the Project closing. The first of these was the adoption (Yes/No) by the government of a regulatory framework for the management of TVET institutions. This indicator was introduced during the 2019 restructuring. The second was the number of programs that successfully revised and implemented curricula. This indicator remained unchanged during the 2019 restructuring. As of the time of the writing of this ICR Report, the Project had considerably exceeded the end target, with 49 revised and implemented curricula against an end target of 25. The target for the number of youth enrolled in TVET institutions supported by the Project in the two priority sectors was reduced from 4,500 to 2,500 during the 2019 restructuring in response to the reduced Project scope. However, the value for this indicator remained at zero throughout the life of the Project since the two centers had still not opened. This indicator is expected to be achieved once the two new sectoral centers are operational (this is supposed to happen before the Page 13 of 46 The World Bank Gabon - Skills Development and Employability Project (P146152) end of 2023). The target for the number of youth enrolled in restructured vocational institutions also was revised (from 4,800 to 2,800) during the 2019 restructuring to take account of the reduced number of supported training institutions. As of the writing of this ICR Report, the number of enrolled youth stood at 1,203, of whom 34 percent were female. Despite the hurdles caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the delayed arrival of some key training equipment for these centers, performance on this indicator is expected to improve substantially in the next year as the centers continue to receive and graduate youth. 27. Outcome 2: Improved effectiveness of short-term skills development in key growth sectors. Achievement of this objective is Substantial prior to the April 2019 restructuring and Substantial after the April 2019 restructuring. The outcome was supposed to be achieved through a combination of various interventions, such as apprenticeship and internship programs, and measured by the following PDO indicators: (i) Youth who have completed internship programs (Percentage) and (ii) Youth who have completed apprenticeship programs (Percentage). The IRIs were: (i) Number of youth enrolled in internship program and (ii) Number of youth enrolled in dual apprenticeship program in urban area. 28. Of the two PDO-level indicators used to measure this outcome, both achieved their end targets. The first of these was the percentage of youth who completed an apprenticeship program. This indicator was not revised in 2019. The Project fully achieved the 70 percent end target and also exceeded the sub-target for female completion (46.07 percent versus 30 percent). The second one was the percentage of youth who completed internship programs. This indicator also was not revised in 2019. The Project essentially achieved the end target (84.61 percent versus 90 percent) for this indicator and the sub-target for female completion was well exceeded (55.55 percent versus 30 percent). 29. The Project came close to achieving the end targets for the two IRIs associated with this second outcome area and exceeded all of the female sub-targets. In terms of the number of youth enrolled in the dual apprenticeship program in urban areas, the Project achieved 2,218 enrollees by its closing, missing the end target by only 182. The percentage of female enrollees stood at 39.27 percent, exceeding the end target by 4.27 percentage points. The number of youth enrolled in internship programs stood at 4,172 by project closing, just 128 short of the end target of 4,300. The percentage of female enrollees was an impressive 56.88 percent, exceeding the end target by 1.88 percentage points. 30. A December 2021 tracer study carried out by a Canadian consulting firm evaluated the level and conditions of employment for the 4,172 young beneficiaries who participated in the internship program. The results indicated that 82 percent of the respondents were unemployed before being accepted into the internship program. The results also showed that a significant number of the participants experienced positive effects on their earnings after completing the program. Specifically, more than two-thirds (83.33 percent) of those who had been employed before the internship experienced an increase in their income after obtaining a job post-internship. A key motivator for participating in the program was the desire to enhance one's skills, thereby gaining access to employment opportunities with improved working conditions. In general, the program was found to be satisfactory by nearly two- thirds of the participants. 31. Outcome 3: Improved effectiveness of entrepreneurship programs in key growth sectors. Achievement of this objective is Modest prior to the April 2019 restructuring and Substantial after the April 2019 restructuring. The outcome was to be achieved through interventions focused on entrepreneurship training and measured by the following PDO indicators: (i) Share of youth having completed a training (apprenticeship or internship) supported by Page 14 of 46 The World Bank Gabon - Skills Development and Employability Project (P146152) the Project employed or self-employed one year after the end of the program (Percentage); and (ii) Number of youth having started the implementation of income generation activities (Number). The corresponding IRI was: (i) Number of youth trained in entrepreneurship program having elaborated an income generating project. 32. Of the two PDO indicators used to measure this outcome, both showed partial progress towards their planned end targets, in part due to the employment difficulties and restrictions brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic. The number of youth who started implementation of income generation activities was introduced as a new PDO indicator during the 2019 restructuring. The end target for this indicator was partially achieved by Project closing, with a final value of 260 (against the desired end target of 300), of whom 60.77 percent were female. The share of youth having completed a training (apprenticeship or internship) supported by the Project and being employed or self-employed one year later also was introduced as a new PDO indicator in 2019. The end target for this indicator was partially achieved, with a final value of 27.4 percent against the desired end target of 50 percent. The sub-target for the percentage of female participants being employed or self-employed one year later reached 58.36 percent, exceeding the planned end target of 30 percent by 28.36 percentage points. 33. The Project essentially achieved the end target for the only IRI associated with this third outcome area and exceeded the female sub-target. The indicator for the number of youth trained in the entrepreneurship program who elaborated an income-generating project was reformulated in 2019 to take account of the new scope and approach of the entrepreneurship program. By Project closing, the indicator was substantially achieved, with a value of 869 against the revised end target of 873 (although well short of the original target of 2,000). The percentage of females was 41.2 percent, exceeding the end target by 6.2 percentage points. This number is corroborated by surveys conducted by the National Pole for the Promotion of Employment. 34. The closure of schools, including training centers, from March to October 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic had a strong impact on the implementation of activities under outcome areas two and three since they primarily involved face-to-face interactions. For example, dual apprenticeship training takes place both in training centers and craft units, with 25 percent of the training time in centers and 75 percent in units. However, due to the pandemic, training organizations and partner craft units had to suspend the reception of beneficiaries for apprenticeships, internship programs, and entrepreneurship training until November 2020, leading to a high dropout rate. Justification of Overall Efficacy Rating 35. The overall efficacy rating for the Project is MODEST prior to the April 2019 restructuring and SUBSTANTIAL after the restructuring. These ratings are justified by the evidence and analysis presented above. While not all of the PDO indicators had met their end targets by Project closing, the majority were either achieved or came close to being achieved, and the evidence suggests that performance will continue to improve over the next year. Through its Employability Development, Youth Integration, and Entrepreneurship Promotion component, the Project has successfully provided jobs for a significant number of underemployed youth with diverse educational backgrounds. The establishment of two new sectoral training centers will further enhance this impact by serving as a hub for specialized skills training in the wood and forestry sectors, as well as offering transversal skills training in ICT, entrepreneurship, and business management. The Project played a crucial role in paving the way for significant improvements in TVET, including the creation of a regulatory framework that promotes greater autonomy, accountability, and private sector representation. Additionally, the Project successfully advocated for the inclusion of apprenticeships in the vocational training curriculum. These groundbreaking changes will be implemented and further tested in the two new sectoral centers as well as the four existing TVET centers that received special support under Page 15 of 46 The World Bank Gabon - Skills Development and Employability Project (P146152) the Project. The Project successfully achieved all of the intermediate targets associated with Component 3: Strengthening Institutional Capacity. These targets were specifically designed to assess the Project's implementation and ensure comprehensive monitoring and evaluation of its activities. C. EFFICIENCY Assessment of Efficiency and Rating 36. The overall efficiency of the Project is rated SUBSTANTIAL. This rating is based on the Project’s economic efficiency as well as aspects of Project design and implementation. Annex 5 contains the detailed efficiency analysis. 37. The economic analysis undertaken at appraisal provided a strong rationale for investing in the Project. The lower bound of the present discounted value of benefits associated with the full implementation of the Project was estimated at US$130.43 million, while the present discounted value of costs was estimated at US$116.69 (US$59.5 project cost and US$57.19 opportunity costs), including other unquantifiable portions. The corresponding Net Present Value (NPV) associated with Project benefits was US$21.54 million and the associated Internal Rate of Return (IRR) was 16.7 percent. Overall, the ratio of benefits to costs indicated that for every dollar invested in the Project, US$1.12 would accrue through returns. Sensitivity analyses indicated that under the lower-bounds scenario, the Project would more or less break even and for every dollar invested in the Project, it would generate approximately 95 cents in benefits. Under the upper-bounds scenario, for every dollar invested in the Project, US$1.49 would accrue through returns. 38. Table 2 below presents the results of the cost-benefit analysis carried out at the ICR stage, which further confirms that the Project is economically viable. The lower bound of the present discounted value of benefits for the overall Project is estimated at US$117.66 million, while the present discounted value of costs is estimated to be US$60.39 million (US$33.16 million project cost and US$27.23 million forgone costs), including other unquantifiable portions. The corresponding NPV of program benefits is US$61.69 million. The IRR associated with this NPV is 21.4 percent. Overall, the benefit/cost ratio indicates that for every US$1 invested, the return is US$1.94. Therefore, although some benefits are not fully quantifiable, the NPV from the quantifiable benefits is larger than the NPV costs, and this strongly supports the efficiency of investments undertaken under the project. Based on this, the overall efficiency rating for the project is Substantial. Table 2: NPV in millions of US$ and IRR (%) in the base scenario Component 1 Component 2 Total project IRR (%) 21.9 23.1 21.4 Discounted cost (present 44.67 11.31 60.39 value of costs) (US$ mln) O/w project cost (US$ mln) 21.86 11.31 33.16 Forgone earning (US$ mln) 22.81 00.00 27.23 Present value of incremental 97.76 19.90 117.66 benefits (US$ mln) Source: World Bank staff estimates based on EGEP 2017 and project final costs and beneficiaries. Page 16 of 46 The World Bank Gabon - Skills Development and Employability Project (P146152) 39. The findings from external financial reports demonstrate a prudent and efficient use of resources under the Project. With the exception of a two-year period during which the Project encountered some challenges, the Financial Management (FM) performance rating remained satisfactory to moderately satisfactory throughout. The PCU consistently submitted acceptable Interim Financial Reports in a timely manner. Overall, the PCU provided excellent and efficient management of Project activities, carefully tracking all activities, following up with contractors, and finding efficient ways to address delays caused by exogenous factors such as the pandemic. D. JUSTIFICATION OF OVERALL OUTCOME RATING 40. The PDO showed HIGH relevance to the national and sectoral contexts, both at the time of appraisal and at Project closing. It was consistent with the government’s Strategic Plan for an Emerging Gabon and was complementary to existing and planned interventions by other development partners. The Project’s objectives were also aligned with the World Bank’s CPS and other Bank operations in Gabon. It continues to be highly relevant to the government’s economic development plans, as evidenced by its close alignment with Gabon’s Strategic Plan for Acceleration and Transformation and the World Bank’s latest CPF. 41. The rating for efficacy (MODEST in the period leading up to the 2019 restructuring, SUBSTANTIAL for the period following) is justified by the strong progress seen against the end targets for almost all PDO indicators. The rating is also justified from the point of view of “expected outcomes” for those indicators where the end targets were close to being achieved. There is a strong expectation that progress will continue following Project closure and that targets will be achieved within the next year. The Project did exceptionally well in the area of female participation, meeting or exceeding all end targets in this area. In addition, the Project has had a significant overall impact on youth prospects in Gabon by providing hitherto-unavailable, job-relevant training and employment opportunities. The establishment of two new sectoral training centers will further enhance this impact by offering specialized skills training in the wood and forestry sectors, as well as transversal skills training in ICT, entrepreneurship, and business management. The Project has also played a crucial role in improving TVET by creating a regulatory framework, bringing in more private sector representation and advocating for the inclusion of apprenticeships in the vocational training curriculum. 42. In terms of efficiency, the overall rating of SUBSTANTIAL is based on the high investment returns for the Project. Overall, the benefit/cost ratio indicates that for every US$1 invested, the return is US$1.94. This is likely an underestimate since some benefits are not fully quantifiable. Also, while there were initial delays, the proactive steps taken to restructure the Project early really paid off and rather than holding onto funds that the Project would likely not be able to spend, funds were cancelled in a timely fashion, thereby increasing the overall efficiency. 43. The overall outcome is rated MODERATELY SATISFACTORY based on the outcome of the split evaluation by the two Project phases, shown in Table 3. This overall rating is justified due to the Project’s significant role in revitalizing the education and skills sector in Gabon. The establishment of two new TVET centers and the investment in high- quality instructor training demonstrate the Project's commitment to delivering exceptional vocational training. The Project's success in generating 49 new TVET programs and rehabilitating four facilities further highlights the strong investment for education provision. These accomplishments are even more impressive considering the Project's role as the first Bank engagement in the sector since 1974. Page 17 of 46 The World Bank Gabon - Skills Development and Employability Project (P146152) Table 3. Summary of Project Ratings Before 1st Restructuring After 1st Restructuring Relevance of PDO High Efficacy (PDO) Modest Substantial Outcome 1 Modest Substantial Outcome 2 Substantial Substantial Outcome 3 Modest Substantial Efficiency Substantial 1 Outcome rating Moderately Unsatisfactory Satisfactory 2 Numerical value of the outcome rating 3 5 3 Disbursement (US$, millions) US$14.21 US$51.77 4 Share of disbursement 21.5% 78.5% 5 Weighted value of the outcome rating 0.65 3.924 6 Final outcome rating 0.65 + 3.924 = 4.574 Moderately Satisfactory E. OTHER OUTCOMES AND IMPACTS Gender 44. The Project achieved very positive outcomes in the area of gender, meeting or exceeding all targets for female participation in apprenticeships, internships, and entrepreneurship. A total of 871 young women underwent training in the dual apprenticeship program; of these, 57 young women secured placements after completing their apprenticeships. The work placement internship program trained 2,297 young women, with 578 placements achieved, including fixed-term and permanent contracts. The agripreneurs program trained 24 young women in agricultural skills and supported them in establishing cooperatives. Entrepreneurship training was provided to 358 young women, resulting in 126 female beneficiaries executing their projects. Institutional Strengthening 45. The Project supported the establishment of two new training centers that offer specialized skills training in the wood and forestry sectors, as well as transversal skills training in ICT, entrepreneurship, and business management. This has contributed to the improvement of TVET offerings in Gabon. The Project also played a crucial role in creating a regulatory framework for TVET, which led to the revision of laws and decrees that promote greater autonomy for TVET institutions. In terms of institutional capacity development, the Project had a significant impact on the National Employment Office (ONE) (subsequently renamed the National Pole for the Promotion of Employment (PNPE)), supporting it to ultimately take on the activities supported under Component 2 of the Project as part of its official mandate and range of services. The PNPE also benefited from a website portal and a phone application for jobseekers. Poverty Reduction and Shared Prosperity 46. The Project contributed to poverty reduction and shared prosperity in Gabon through the provision of skills training and employment opportunities for unemployed and underemployed youth that helped increase their income levels. Despite the Project’s effectiveness in targeting poorer, vulnerable youth, it is only a starting point for what needs to happen to fully address the problem of youth unemployment in Gabon. In order for the Project’s potential to be completely realized, the Government will need to fully open the new and refurbished TVET centers Page 18 of 46 The World Bank Gabon - Skills Development and Employability Project (P146152) and ensure that a consistent pipeline of youth is receiving the benefit of high-quality, market-relevant skills training from qualified instructors and are being linked to meaningful employment, internship, apprenticeship, or entrepreneurial opportunities, in addition to access to capital. By continuing what was started under this Project, the government can create an effective, well-regulated TVET landscape that measurably contributes to the prosperity and economic futures of Gabonese youth. III. KEY FACTORS THAT AFFECTED IMPLEMENTATION AND OUTCOME A. KEY FACTORS DURING PREPARATION 47. Project financing instrument. The original Project was financed through an IBRD loan of EUR 94.6 million (US$100 million equivalent) using an Investment Project Financing (IPF) instrument. IPF was the right choice considering the very limited institutional and managerial capacity of the implementing agency and broader Government at the time of Project preparation. The IPF instrument has played a crucial role in facilitating the provision of essential technical assistance and institutional strengthening schemes, which have empowered the Government to effectively implement youth employment and skill development schemes under the Project. 48. Appropriate design. There was coherence between the PDO, the Project components, and the results framework. The analytical basis for the selection of interim and end targets for the results indicators seemed sufficient at the time, but ultimately did not hold up to the changing realities on the ground caused by the COVID- 19 pandemic and related closures of educational institutions and other disruptions, including of supply chains (further aggravated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine). The Project-supported activities were appropriate and chosen in close collaboration with the government. The targeting of Project beneficiaries was also appropriate and aligned with the needs of Gabon. 49. Risks and Mitigation Measures. Key risks and appropriate mitigation measures were, for the most part, identified during Project preparation (overall risk was deemed Substantial). However, the unique risk created by the COVID-19 pandemic could not have been anticipated and created significant problems for the Project initially while efforts were undertaken to find an appropriate response. Other risks to Project implementation and outcomes that were appropriately identified upfront included: (i) poor institutional and managerial capacity; (ii) weak human resources and lack of familiarity with Bank projects; (iii) weak fiduciary accountability; (iv) insufficient capacity for monitoring and evaluation, project administration, sector coordination, and technical oversight; and (v) limited capacity of critical stakeholders. The Project sought to directly mitigate these risks through: (i) capacity- building initiatives supported under Component 3; (ii) establishment of a comprehensive management information system for monitoring and evaluation purposes; (iii) strengthening the internal capacity of implementing agencies and establishment of appropriate protocols and controls to address fiduciary challenges; (iv) purchase and installation of a computerized accounting system for the implementing agency; (v) establishment of a procedures manual for effective implementation of administrative and fiduciary protocols; and (vi) establishment of a Stakeholder Committee to facilitate consultation with the private sector and address implementation challenges. Page 19 of 46 The World Bank Gabon - Skills Development and Employability Project (P146152) B. KEY FACTORS DURING IMPLEMENTATION 50. The Project’s implementation progress was rated as Moderately Unsatisfactory between June 2018 and December 2019. After undergoing restructuring, the rating improved to Moderately Satisfactory. Since 2022, the Project’s implementation has been consistently rated as Satisfactory. The Project’s challenges and successes were influenced by several factors as discussed below. 51. Factors subject to the control of Government and/or implementing entities. Much of the Project’s success and achievements can be attributed to the efforts of the PCU in the Ministry of TVET and other agencies like ANPI and PNPE, which implemented the youth employability and skills development programs under Component 2. The Government faced challenges in implementing the Project due to capacity constraints, as seen in the delayed planning and construction of the two new TVET centers and the delayed reforms to the vocational training system. These challenges, which caused delays in disbursements and led to the Project receiving Moderately Unsatisfactory ratings for several years, were overcome by developing more coordinated arrangements among the implementing agencies. The World Bank, in collaboration with the PIU and PNPE, also offered robust capacity development through training and technical assistance. 52. Factors subject to World Bank control. The Bank team carried out regular implementation support missions and took decisive actions, including three restructurings, to address the issues identified. The 2018 mid-term review (MTR) prompted the decision to do the first restructuring of the Project to address the challenges posed by capacity constraints identified during the MTR and preceding missions. The subsequent restructuring in 2019 addressed these constraints by reducing the Project’s scope to allow for a better focus on the most important activities as well as by providing more support and technical assistance for enhancing the capabilities of the implementing agencies. Importantly, following the restructuring, a dedicated technical consultant was stationed in Libreville to help support the implementation process on the ground. This arrangement proved highly beneficial for the Project's overall progress and success since it allowed for more regular interaction with, and real-time support for, the different implementing agencies. 53. Exogenous factors. The COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact on the Project from March 2020 onwards, forcing training organizations and partner craft units to temporarily halt (until November 2020) the acceptance of youth for apprenticeships, internships, and entrepreneurship training. The construction of the new centers was also delayed due to disruptions in global supply chains caused by COVID-19. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine further complicated matters by delaying the arrival of key equipment for the centers. This, in turn, affected the training of trainers, the opening of the new centers, and the enrollment of beneficiaries. In response to this, the Project end date was extended by four months, until April 30, 2023, to allow more time for the delayed equipment to arrive and be installed and for the trainers to be trained on it. Page 20 of 46 The World Bank Gabon - Skills Development and Employability Project (P146152) IV. BANK PERFORMANCE, COMPLIANCE ISSUES, AND RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME A. QUALITY OF MONITORING AND EVALUATION (M&E) M&E Design 54. There were strong connections between the inputs, outputs, and outcomes of the Project and its PDO. The PDO was carefully defined during the appraisal phase and retained throughout the Project. The indicators at the PDO- and intermediate-outcome levels were appropriate, but further refined during the restructuring process to ensure accurate measurement of Project outcomes. The M&E system was based on an agreed Results Framework and implementation arrangements, ensuring a clear and structured approach to monitoring and evaluation. The Project Implementation Manual provided detailed guidelines on M&E methodology, including baseline development and indicator calculation, ensuring consistency and accuracy in data collection. The development of M&E also consisted of providing technical assistance to build capacity amongst relevant stakeholders, such as ministries and implementing agencies, and promote a strong understanding of M&E principles and practices. M&E Implementation 55. Data collection and reporting for the PDO and intermediate indicators was carried out throughout the Project's lifespan. The PCU was responsible for conducting M&E activities and had a dedicated team member who was responsible for overseeing this aspect of Project implementation. In order to ensure an accurate starting point for tracking progress, the PCU conducted the baseline data collection for indicators in collaboration with the implementing agencies. These agencies were responsible for ongoing data collection and reporting on their activities, promoting ownership and accountability at the Project level. The PCU consolidated and analyzed data related to output indicators and Project implementation, providing a centralized and comprehensive view of progress. An M&E specialist was recruited to manage the M&E system, ensuring expertise and focus on M&E activities. M&E Utilization 56. Data for the results framework was made available on a regular basis and was utilized to inform this ICR analysis. Progress reports were prepared twice a year, providing regular updates on Project implementation and outcomes as well as updated data for assessing performance indicators. The PCU organized annual reviews to evaluate progress, assess lessons learned, and make necessary adjustments to Project activities. An international, independent M&E firm was recruited to assist the PCU in designing a Project M&E system and conducting annual evaluations, ensuring objectivity in assessing implementation progress. The Project financed tracer surveys and satisfaction surveys to assess the effects of Project activities on beneficiaries and gather feedback on Project interventions, promoting continuous improvement and learning. Justification of Overall Rating of Quality of M&E 57. Based on the above analysis, the overall rating for the quality of M&E is Substantial. B. ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, AND FIDUCIARY COMPLIANCE 58. Environmental and Social Safeguards. The Project has been classified in Category B, and two safeguard policies were triggered: OP/BP 4.01 and OP/BP 4.11. The Project did not require the acquisition of land, did not result in the displacement of people, and did not adversely affect livelihoods, although OP 4.12 on resettlement was triggered as a precautionary measure. An Environmental and Social Management Framework was prepared in 2015, Page 21 of 46 The World Bank Gabon - Skills Development and Employability Project (P146152) approved, and disclosed during Project preparation, and several specific safeguard tools and instruments were also prepared and utilized by the Project during implementation, before the launch of civil works and other activities. The environmental and social (E&S) screening of activities was systematized, and E&S monitoring reports were regularly produced. 59. E&S safeguards performance was consistently monitored during Project implementation, and ISRs consistently rated this aspect of the Project as Moderately Satisfactory considering the performance. In fact, given the recurrence of accidents and incidents that had been recorded earlier in the Project, the Bank organized training workshops on operational health and safety (OHS) issues associated with the apprenticeship component. Safeguards Corrective Action Plans were prepared for each incident and implemented. For the construction and operationalization of the new centers, the number of OHS specialists was increased for each contractor and supervising engineering firm. The various restructurings carried out in the Project have made it possible to allocate funding to correct shortcomings observed in the design of the new training centers in order to achieve the recommended E&S standards. These include emergency exits and security aspects; and the improvement of dining rooms and study laboratories for better management of effluents and risks related to product handling. The placement of geotextiles, remediation work, and revegetation of embankments at the new sites have treated gullies and reduced the risk of landslides. The management of the Environmental, Social, Health and Safety guarantees of performance implemented by the PCU for civil works and all small activities helped to better achieve E&S commitments and allowed for the upgradation of the E&S rating to Satisfactory at the end of the Project. The agripreneur program trained youth in agricultural skills and supported them in establishing cooperatives. The Project found that although the activities supported had a priori low environmental impact, the business plans did not include any specific E&S measures linked to activities, which was corrected during the monitoring mission by feedback and good recommendations from the Bank and PCU teams. 60. Financial Management (FM). FM was rated Moderately Satisfactory at the beginning of Project implementation, and Satisfactory for the last two years. At appraisal, the FM system was considered adequate, albeit the FM risk was considered High (this fell to Substantial during implementation). FM supervision missions were conducted at least twice a year. The Project had a Procedures Manual and an experienced FM team comprising a Financial and Administrative Officer and an accountant. The initial FM Officer was subsequently competitively hired as Project Coordinator, and a new FM Officer was then recruited and remained until the end of the Project. IFRs and Audit reports were submitted on time throughout Project implementation; they were always of acceptable quality and the audit opinions were always unqualified. 61. Procurement. Procurement was rated Moderately Satisfactory at Project closing and for most of implementation. The Project initially experienced challenges with some competitive procurement processes that did not yield satisfactory results, resulting in substantial delays. After improvements were made to the contracting processes, the Project was able to reorient and conclude all major contracts. Overall, there was effective procurement management; all planned activities were accomplished without mis-procurement issues or other anomalies or irregularities; all contracts were completed; and all required payments were made to contractors. Documents were updated or uploaded in the Systematic Tracking of Exchanges in Procurement system to reflect the real-time situation of the Project’s procurement activities. Page 22 of 46 The World Bank Gabon - Skills Development and Employability Project (P146152) C. BANK PERFORMANCE Quality at Entry 62. The Project preparation team ensured that the Project design was aligned with the Government’s Strategic Plan for an Emerging Gabon (2012-2025), which provided a roadmap for enhancing training programs, skills development activities, and youth employability in Gabon. The Project's design and key indicators were carefully chosen to support achievement of the PDO. The design incorporated recommendations from peer reviewers and recognized research for addressing the skills mismatch and lack of employability among Gabonese youth. The preparation team successfully identified key risks and appropriate mitigation measures, including relevant technical assistance. The preparation process involved a highly collaborative and consultative approach with the Government of Gabon. Quality of Supervision 63. The Project team demonstrated a high level of commitment to supporting the Government in the implementation of the Project. Regular supervision missions, led by the Bank team, were organized twice a year to ensure effective Project management and oversight. During the course of the Project, various implementation challenges were encountered, including delays of various forms, capacity constraints, and the unforeseen impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the Bank team demonstrated their commitment to achievement of the PDO by actively collaborating with the Government to identify and implement suitable solutions that would address these challenges without compromising the integrity of the Project's design. The Bank team was also proactive in carrying out restructurings early on in order to quickly course correct for emerging issues. The supervision teams provided regular reports on the progress of safeguards, procurement, and FM. These reports were compiled during supervision missions, where the teams closely collaborated with the PCU and other implementation entities to enhance their capacity in the aforementioned critical areas. The missions recorded Project progress in aide memoires and ISRs. These reports served as crucial tools for keeping World Bank management well informed about the P roject’s advancements. By consistently documenting and sharing updates, the missions ensured that Project stakeholders were kept abreast of the Project’s trajectory and milestones achieved. This comprehensive approach to reporting played a vital role in facilitating the thorough evaluation and analysis of the Project's outcomes and impacts. Justification of Overall Rating of Bank Performance 64. Overall Bank performance is rated Satisfactory. This is based on the sub-ratings of Bank performance at entry (Satisfactory) and Bank performance during supervision (Satisfactory). D. RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME 65. The risk to sustaining the development outcome is moderate. This rating is based on the observation that a substantial portion of Project activities have been successfully integrated into the official mandate and service offerings of the TVET ministry, ensuring their sustainability. A thorough risk assessment was conducted during Project preparation, identifying various risks, including capacity risks. However, through the implementation of institutional strengthening measures, most of these risks were effectively mitigated and managed. The TVET system in the country has also witnessed improved capacity through the establishment of vocational training institutions, the enhancement of overall governance, and the increased use of private sector partnerships. This includes the creation of two new training institutions and the realignment of programs to meet the needs of key growth sectors in the economy. Additionally, the Project has facilitated the development of the PNPE's capacity to identify and Page 23 of 46 The World Bank Gabon - Skills Development and Employability Project (P146152) monitor employment market changes, benefiting job-seeking youth. The Project has also contributed to improvements in data systems and the utilization of data for employment policy development. These achievements increase the likelihood of perpetuating and maintaining Project interventions moving forward. V. LESSONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 66. Lesson 1. Simple, flexible project design, coupled with well-targeted TA and capacity building, is critical in contexts where the client has limited familiarity with World Bank projects and procedures. This was the first World Bank-financed education and skilling operation in Gabon since 1974. The implementing agency had no experience with World Bank procedures and required extensive technical assistance and other capacity building support throughout implementation. The original Project design, although well aligned with the Government’s goals for the TVET sector, proved to be more complex during implementation than anticipated. Fortunately, the modular, scalable nature of the design made it relatively easy to tailor (through restructurings) to better match Government capacity levels, without losing the core of what needed to happen in order to achieve the PDO. This approach, accompanied by continuous TA and capacity building in areas such as FM and Procurement, helped keep the Project on track to achieving its PDO. 67. Lesson 2. Targeted renovation of TVET centers in specific skills training areas may be less effective if the renovation does not also address more general infrastructure issues. The Project provided support for the construction of two new sectoral centers as well as the rehabilitation of targeted skills training areas in four others. The logic underpinning the selective rehabilitations was that it would be more strategic to focus on upgrading skills training areas that had the best chance of leading to employment later on. However, in the case of one center, there subsequently proved to be some general infrastructure issues (basement flooding) that detracted from the upgrades done to the equipment and rooms for the targeted skills training areas. It may be advisable to only consider rehabilitation of existing centers if the overall infrastructure is sound or else to approach renovation in a way that addresses general infrastructure issues as well as skills-area-specific upgrades. 68. Lesson 3. It is important to design effective communications campaigns to keep key stakeholders informed and to ensure that they remain committed to, and recognize the value of, Project activities. As mentioned above, this was the first World Bank-financed education and skilling operation in Gabon since 1974. Therefore, many aspects of the Project were new for stakeholders at all levels of the system. In addition, the Project ran into issues along the way, including changes in implementing agency leadership, design changes, staff turnover, a reduction in financing amount and scale of Project activities, and closures and interruptions due to COVID-19. All of this required well-planned communications and messaging to key stakeholders to ensure that they understood Project activities and remained committed to them even as changes were introduced. Unfortunately, the Project did not have a dedicated communications specialist or plan, and this led to some unnecessary confusion on the part of stakeholders, particularly in the early stages. Communications improved in the latter half of implementation, but a strong communications plan should have been in place from the very beginning of Project implementation. 69. Lesson 4. In low-capacity country contexts where the Bank is entering into a sector for the first time, it may be better to plan for a Multiphase Programmatic Approach (MPA) rather than a single project in order to allow time for the necessary dialogue and reforms. The Project commenced implementation in early 2017 and ended on April 30, 2023. Despite this six-year period, the Project had only begun to make inroads (albeit significant ones) into the TVET and skilling landscape in Gabon. Much remains to be done in order to solidify the initial gains made. In a low-capacity country context such as Gabon, particularly in cases where a Project represents the first foray into a Page 24 of 46 The World Bank Gabon - Skills Development and Employability Project (P146152) particular sector, there is a need to plan more realistically for a longer-term series of investments to better support the Government in building capacity and an appetite for the necessary reforms, some of which can be difficult to implement. MPAs are an underutilized tool in this regard, particularly in the World Bank’s support for education and skills training, but lessons could be learned from the effective use of such approaches in other sectors. 70. Lesson 5. In low-capacity country contexts where the Bank is entering a sector for the first time, having dedicated staff on the ground is crucial for successful Project implementation. Their proximity to the client allows for real-time communications, ongoing relationship building, and a better understanding of technical and operational challenges and how to address them. In the case of the Gabon Project, there was an observable improvement in all of the aforementioned areas (i.e., communications, relationship building, and understanding of challenges) once dedicated staff were placed full-time in the country. The staff contributed to the smooth execution of the Project’s activities, aligning them with best practices and Bank standards. Additionally, the real-time support and troubleshooting capabilities addressed any technical issues promptly, minimizing downtime. 71. Lesson 6. Early restructuring, when warranted, can make all the difference. The importance of early restructuring in the case of the Gabon Project cannot be overstated. It was a highly effective and proactive response to emerging challenges and issues that significantly enhanced the ultimate success and impact of the Project. By addressing challenges and issues at an early stage, the restructuring helped ensure that the Project stayed on track towards achieving its intended objectives in as efficient and effective a manner as possible. This is crucial for ensuring that the Project achieves what it is supposed to for the target communities. Being proactive about restructuring in response to emerging issues is an important consideration for Project teams and a crucial factor in . the Project’s success. Page 25 of 46 The World Bank Gabon - Skills Development and Employability Project (P146152) ANNEX 1. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND KEY OUTPUTS A. RESULTS INDICATORS A.1 PDO Indicators Objective/Outcome: Improve effectiveness of vocational training, short-term skills development, and entrepreneurship Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Direct project beneficiaries Number 0.00 18,100.00 12,573.00 7,665.00 01-Jan-2016 01-Jan-2016 30-Apr-2023 Female beneficiaries Percentage 0.00 30.00 42.86 (Percentage) Comments (achievements against targets): By the time of the writing of this ICR Report, the number of beneficiaries had further increased to 8,462 and the percentage of female beneficiaries had increased to 47.40%. The number will continue to increase once the two new sectoral centers are fully open. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Youth who have completed Percentage 0.00 70.00 70.00 Page 26 of 46 The World Bank Gabon - Skills Development and Employability Project (P146152) apprenticeship program 01-Jan-2016 01-Jan-2016 30-Apr-2023 (percentage) Percentage Female Percentage 0.00 30.00 39.00 01-Jan-2016 01-Jan-2016 30-Apr-2023 Comments (achievements against targets): The value stood at 70.56 percent as of the time of the writing of this ICR Report. Of these, 46.07 percent were female. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Youth who completed Percentage 0.00 90.00 83.00 internship program 01-Jan-2016 01-Jan-2016 30-Apr-2023 Percent Female Percentage 0.00 30.00 59.00 01-Jan-2016 01-Jan-2016 30-Apr-2023 Comments (achievements against targets): As of the time of the writing of this ICR Report, the value stood at 84.61 percent, 55.55 percent of whom were female. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Page 27 of 46 The World Bank Gabon - Skills Development and Employability Project (P146152) TVET institutions with Number 0.00 8.00 6.00 0.00 functionning board of Directors 01-Jan-2016 01-Jan-2016 30-Apr-2023 Comments (achievements against targets): Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Number of public-private Number 0.00 12.00 4.00 3.00 joint management agreements signed. 01-Jan-2016 01-Jan-2016 30-Apr-2023 Comments (achievements against targets): Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Share of youth having Percentage 0.00 50.00 26.00 completed a training (apprenticeship or internship) 01-Jan-2016 01-Jan-2016 30-Apr-2023 supported by the project employed or self employed one year after the end of the program Percentage Female Percentage 0.00 30.00 58.00 Page 28 of 46 The World Bank Gabon - Skills Development and Employability Project (P146152) Comments (achievements against targets): At the time of the writing of this ICR Report, the value had increased to 27.24 percent, 58.36 percent of whom were female. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Number of Youth having Number 0.00 300.00 148.00 started the implementation of income generation 01-Jan-2016 01-Jan-2016 30-Apr-2023 projects Comments (achievements against targets): As of the time of the writing of this ICR Report, the number had increased to 260, of whom 60.77 percent were female. A.2 Intermediate Results Indicators Component: Component 1. Extension of Training Supply and Quality Improvement in TVET in key growth sectors Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Adoption by Government of Yes/No No Yes Yes Page 29 of 46 The World Bank Gabon - Skills Development and Employability Project (P146152) a regulatory Framework on 01-Jan-2016 01-Jan-2016 30-Apr-2023 the Management of TVET institutions Comments (achievements against targets): Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Youth enrolled in the TVET Number 0.00 4,500.00 2,200.00 0.00 institutions supported by the project in the two priority 01-Jan-2016 01-Jan-2016 30-Apr-2023 sectors Percentage Female Number 0.00 30.00 0.00 01-Jan-2016 01-Jan-2016 30-Apr-2023 Comments (achievements against targets): This indicator will be achieved once the two new sectoral centers are open, which is scheduled to happen before the end of 2023. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Number of youth enrolled in Number 0.00 4,800.00 2,800.00 594.00 restructured vocational institutions 01-Jan-2016 01-Jan-2016 30-Apr-2023 Page 30 of 46 The World Bank Gabon - Skills Development and Employability Project (P146152) Percentage Female Percentage 0.00 30.00 29.27 Comments (achievements against targets): As of the time of the writing of this ICR Report, the number had risen to 1203, 34 percent of whom were female. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Number of programs which Number 0.00 25.00 26.00 have revised and implemented curricula 01-Jan-2016 01-Jan-2016 30-Apr-2023 Comments (achievements against targets): As of the time of the writing of this ICR Report, the number of programs that had revised and implemented curricula had risen to 49. Component: Component 2. Employability Development, Youth Integration and Entrepreneurship Promotion Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Number of youth enrolled in Number 0.00 3,000.00 2,400.00 2,218.00 dual apprenticeship program in urban area 01-Jan-2016 01-Jan-2016 30-Apr-2023 Page 31 of 46 The World Bank Gabon - Skills Development and Employability Project (P146152) Percentage Female Percentage 0.00 35.00 39.27 Comments (achievements against targets): Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Number of youth enrolled in Number 0.00 3,500.00 4,300.00 4,172.00 internship program 01-Jan-2016 01-Jan-2016 30-Apr-2023 Percentage Female Percentage 0.00 55.00 56.88 Comments (achievements against targets): Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Number of youth trained in Number 0.00 873.00 681.00 entrepreneurship program having elaborated an income 01-Jan-2016 01-Jan-2016 30-Apr-2023 generating project Percentage Female Percentage 0.00 35.00 46.00 Page 32 of 46 The World Bank Gabon - Skills Development and Employability Project (P146152) Comments (achievements against targets): As of the writing of this ICR Report, the number had risen to 869, 41.2 percent of whom were female. Component: Component 3. Institutional Capacity Support and Project Implementation Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Number of youth who have Number 0.00 12,000.00 20,000.00 49,224.00 registered in the job seekers database established by ONE 01-Jan-2016 01-Jan-2016 30-Apr-2023 Comments (achievements against targets): Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Availability of a survey on Yes/No No Yes Yes youth who have completed internship (Tracer study) 01-Jan-2016 01-Jan-2016 30-Apr-2023 Comments (achievements against targets): Page 33 of 46 The World Bank Gabon - Skills Development and Employability Project (P146152) Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Availability of an evaluation Yes/No No Yes Yes of the dual apprenticeship program 01-Jan-2016 01-Jan-2016 30-Apr-2023 Comments (achievements against targets): B. Indicator Performance Pre 2019 Restructuring Post 2019 Restructuring Indicator Target Value Comment Target Value Comment Achieved Achieved Objective/Outcome 1: To improve effectiveness of vocational training in key growth sectors (Modest for Phase 1 and Substantial for Phase 2) PDO-level indicators Direct Project beneficiaries (Number) 18,100 8,462 Target not achieved 12,573 8,462 Overall target partially achieved (67%), but female (Percentage female) target of 30 percent exceeded (47.40 percent female achieved). The number of beneficiaries will continue to increase once the two new sectoral centers are fully open. TVET institutions with functioning board of 8 0 Target not achieved 6 0 Target not achieved directors (Number) Number of public-private joint management 12 3 Target not achieved 4 3 Target partially achieved (75%) agreements signed. (Number) Intermediate Results Indicators Adoption by government of regulatory Yes Yes Target fully achieved framework on the management of TVET Page 34 of 46 The World Bank Gabon - Skills Development and Employability Project (P146152) institutions (Yes/No) New indicator from 2019 onwards Youth enrolled in the TVET institutions 4,500 0 Target not achieved 2,200 0 Target not achieved. However, this indicator will be supported by the Project in the two priority achieved once the two new sectoral centers are open, sectors (Number) (Percentage female) which is scheduled to happen before the end of 2023. Number of youth enrolled in restructured 4,800 1,203 Target not achieved 2,800 1,203 Overall target partially achieved (43%), but female sub- vocational institutions (Number) target of 30 percent exceeded (34 percent). (Percentage female) Number of programs which have revised and 25 49 Target surpassed 25 49 Target surpassed. implemented curricula (Number) Objective/Outcome 2: To improve effectiveness of short-term skills development in key growth sectors (Substantial for Phase 1 and Substantial for Phase 2) PDO-level indicators Youth who completed internship program 90 84.61 Target substantially 90 84.61 Overall target substantially achieved and female sub- (Percentage) achieved target of 30 percent exceeded (55.55 percent). Youth who completed apprenticeship 70 70.56 Target achieved 70 70.56 Overall target fully achieved and female sub-target of program (Percentage) 30 percent exceeded (46.07 percent). Intermediate Results Indicators Number of youth enrolled in dual 3,000 2218 Target substantially 2,400 2,218 Overall target substantially achieved and female sub- apprenticeship program in urban area achieved target of 35 percent exceeded (39.27 percent). (Number) Number of youth enrolled in internship 3,500 4172 Target surpassed 4,300 4,172 Overall target substantially achieved and female sub- program (Number) target of 55 percent exceeded (56.88 percent). Objective/Outcome 3: To improve effectiveness of entrepreneurship programs in key growth sectors (Modest for Phase 1 and Substantial for Phase 2) PDO-level indicators Share of youth having completed training 50 27.24 Overall target not achieved, but female sub-target of 30 (apprenticeship or internship) supported by percent exceeded (58.36 percent). the Project employed or self-employed one year after end of the program (Percentage) New indicator from 2019 onwards Page 35 of 46 The World Bank Gabon - Skills Development and Employability Project (P146152) Number of youth having started income 300 260 Target substantially achieved (87%), of whom 60.77 generation projects (Number) New indicator percent were female. from 2019 onwards Intermediate Results Indicators Number of youth trained in 2,000 869 Target not achieved 873 869 Overall target achieved and female sub-target of 35 entrepreneurship program having percent exceeded (41.2 percent). elaborated an income generating project (Number) Page 36 of 46 The World Bank Gabon - Skills Development and Employability Project (P146152) C. KEY OUTPUTS BY COMPONENT Objective/Outcome 1: To improve effectiveness of vocational training in key growth sectors 1. Direct beneficiaries of Project interventions (percentage female) Outcome Indicators 2. TVET institutions with functioning boards of directors 3. Public Private Partnership joint management agreements signed 1. Adoption by Government of a regulatory framework on the management of TVET institutions 2. Number of youth enrolled in the TVET institutions supported by the Project in Intermediate Results Indicators the two priority sectors (percentage female) 3. Number of youth enrolled in restructured vocational institutions (Number) (percentage female) 4. Number of programs which have revised and implemented curricula 1. 7,665 direct beneficiaries by Project closing, of whom 42.88 percent female 2. Three signed public-private joint management agreements Key Outputs by Component 3. Adoption by Government of regulatory framework for the management of (linked to the achievement of the Objective/Outcome 1) TVET institutions 4. 26 programs successfully revised and implemented curricula 5. 594 youth enrolled in restructured vocational institutions Objective/Outcome 2: To improve effectiveness of short-term skills development in key growth sectors 1. Youth who have completed internship program. Outcome Indicators 2. Youth who have completed apprenticeship program 1. Number of youth enrolled in dual apprenticeship program in urban area; Intermediate Results Indicators 2. Number of youth enrolled in internship program 1. 70 percent of youth completed an apprenticeship program, of whom 39 Key Outputs by Component percent were female (linked to the achievement of the Objective/Outcome 2) 2. 83 percent of youth completed internship programs, of whom 59 percent were Page 37 of 46 The World Bank Gabon - Skills Development and Employability Project (P146152) female 3. 49,224 youth registered in job seekers database established by ONE Objective/Outcome 3: To improve effectiveness of entrepreneurship programs in key growth sectors 1. Share of youth having completed a training (apprenticeship or internship) supported by the Project employed or self-employed one year after the end of Outcome Indicators the program 2. Number of youth having started the implementation of income generation activities 1. Number of youth trained in entrepreneurship program having elaborated an Intermediate Result Indicator income generating project. 1. 148 youth started implementation of income generation activities Key Outputs by Component 2. 26 percent of youth having completed a training (apprenticeship or internship) (linked to the achievement of the Objective/Outcome 3) supported by the Project were employed or self-employed one year later, of whom 58 percent were female Page 38 of 46 The World Bank Gabon - Skills Development and Employability Project (P146152) ANNEX 2. BANK LENDING AND IMPLEMENTATION SUPPORT/SUPERVISION A. TASK TEAM MEMBERS Name Role Preparation Hamoud Abdel Wedoud Kamil Task Team Leader Kouami Hounsinou Messan Procurement Specialist Enagnon Ernest Eric Adda Financial Management Specialist Alison Marie Grimsland Team Member Abdoulaye Gadiere Social Specialist Sonia Vanecia Boga Team Member Kolie Ousmane Maurice Megnan Team Member Maya Abi Karam Counsel Aissatou Diallo Team Member Tshela Rose-Claire Pakabomba Team Member Atou Seck Team Member Laura S. McDonald Team Member Emanuela Di Gropello Team Member Lucienne M. M'Baipor Social Specialist Supervision/ICR Margaret M. Clarke Task Team Leader Rose Caline Desruisseaux-Cadet, Lanssina Traore Procurement Specialists Henie Dahlia Takodjou Meku Epse Nsinga Financial Management Specialist Francis Tasha Venayen Financial Management Specialist Adjalou Celestin Niamien Financial Management Specialist Page 39 of 46 The World Bank Gabon - Skills Development and Employability Project (P146152) Tarak Yao Souhaliho Ouattara Team Member Faustin Ondamba Ombanda Team Member Bernard Yungu Loleka Team Member Daniel Cholom Puewe Environmental Specialist Nicole Nguema Metogo Team Member Charlie Foyet Sonkeng Environmental Specialist Faly Diallo Team Member Harisoa Danielle Rasolonjatovo Andriamihamina Team Member Sylvie Munchep Ndze Team Member Nikolai Alexei Sviedrys Wittich Procurement Team Jacqueline Beatriz Veloz Lockward Counsel Graciela Sanchez Martinez Social Specialist Elif Yonca Yukseker Team Member Nathalie Lahire Team Member Sameena Dost Team Member Aissatou Diallo Team Member Antoinette Pongui Program Assistant Laura S. McDonald Team Member Alexandra C. Sperling Counsel Page 40 of 46 The World Bank Gabon - Skills Development and Employability Project (P146152) B. STAFF TIME AND COST Staff Time and Cost Stage of Project Cycle No. of staff weeks US$ (including travel and consultant costs) Preparation FY14 7.944 165,921.56 FY15 12.186 109,238.73 FY16 15.947 117,775.71 FY17 .625 2,943.32 FY18 .321 770.51 FY19 .525 1,427.37 FY20 1.619 6,783.54 Total 39.17 404,860.74 Supervision/ICR FY15 0 2,358.03 FY16 .225 1,476.63 FY17 10.600 105,958.99 FY18 11.934 121,197.72 FY19 12.263 142,765.49 FY20 21.679 163,533.94 FY21 26.807 173,931.58 FY22 29.071 187,705.43 FY23 61.298 383,339.93 FY24 8.890 48,148.19 Total 182.77 1,330,415.93 Page 41 of 46 The World Bank Gabon - Skills Development and Employability Project (P146152) ANNEX 3. PROJECT COST BY COMPONENT Amount at Approval Actual at Project Percentage of Approval Components (US$M) Closing (US$M) (US$M) Component 1. Extension of Training Supply and Quality 65 40.00 62 Improvement in TVET in key growth sectors Component 2. Employability Development, Youth 20 15.00 75 Integration and Entrepreneurship Promotion Component 3. Institutional Capacity Support and Project 15 10.98 73 Implementation Total 100.00 65.98 65.98 Page 42 of 46 The World Bank Gabon - Skills Development and Employability Project (P146152) ANNEX 4. EFFICIENCY ANALYSIS 1. The economic analysis undertaken at appraisal provided the rationale for investing in skills development and employability in Gabon. At appraisal, a cost-benefit analysis (CBA) was undertaken to calculate the net present value (NPV) and internal rate of return (IRR) for the Project. The IRR and the NPV of costs and benefits for the quantifiable components and combined estimates for the Project demonstrated that it would be economically viable. The lower bound of the present discounted value of benefits associated with full implementation of the Project was estimated at US$130.43 million while the present discounted value of costs was estimated at US$116.69 million (US$59.5 million Project costs and US$57.19 million opportunity costs), including other unquantifiable portions. The corresponding NPV associated with Project benefits was US$21.54 million. The IRR associated with this NPV was 16.7 percent. 2. At the ICR stage, the CBA updates the analysis produced at appraisal to measure the estimated returns to the Project at completion. In order to conduct the CBA, the model employs similar assumptions about the Project and the associated costs and benefits as at appraisal to ensure comparability of results over time. Below is the summary of specific assumptions adopted for the CBA at completion. a. Unemployment rate (chance of employment): we used the same youth unemployment rate by level of education as in the appraisal to align with the Project target group at labor market entry age. b. Discount rate: assumed discount rate of 15 percent based on recent prime lending rate by Central Bank of Gabon. c. Inflation adjustment: 5.6 percent inflation rate was used to adjust the 2017 earnings by level of education for inflation on annual earnings for the Project benefit cycle. d. Earnings: earnings by level of education estimated using EGEP 2017 for all relevant education levels as indicated by the Project’s participant education profile. e. Incremental benefits: incremental benefits estimated using rate of return, which is on average one additional year of school associated with 6.7 percent increase in earning. The rate of return is applied based on duration of Project intervention. f. Maintenance costs assumed to be 1.5 percent for Component 1 intervention during the life span of the infrastructure. g. Life span of the building infrastructure is assumed to be 40 years while equipment is expected to be 10 years. h. Assume a student teacher ratio (STR) of 30 to have enough teaching staff and account for incremental cost of running the institutions. For developing countries, the post-secondary education STR can range as high as 100, but we are considering the most advanced countries’ case where STR is about 30, on average. However, we will consider the larger STR in the sensitivity analysis. i. Age of Project beneficiaries is used from Project targets to determine their level of education at entry level based on EGEP 2017, which is on average 24 years. j. Years in the labor market: assuming a retirement age of 60, Project participants will remain in the labor market for 36 years following the training. k. Opportunity cost: forgone opportunity costs of participants was estimated using the relevant education level, which is based on earning rate below TVET qualification. Since TVET is provided Page 43 of 46 The World Bank Gabon - Skills Development and Employability Project (P146152) following primary and secondary completion, the average earning for a TVET graduate is estimated at lower secondary completion earning levels (equivalent to 9 years of schooling). l. Exchange rate: average annual exchange rate of 624 CFA per US$ (based on 2022 exchange rates) used for local currency conversion to USD. 3. Table 1 presents the CBA at ICR stage. Both IRRs and NPVs of costs and benefits for both quantifiable components and combined estimates for the Project show that the Project is economically viable. The lower bound of present discounted value of benefits for the overall Project is estimated to be US$117.66 million while the present discounted value of costs is estimated to be US$60.39 million (US$33.16 million project cost and US$27.23 million forgone costs), including other unquantifiable portions. The corresponding NPV of Project benefits is US$61.69 million. The IRR associated with this NPV is 21.4 percent. Overall, the benefit/cost ratio indicates that for every US$1 invested the return is US$1.94. Therefore, although some benefits are not fully quantifiable, the NPV from the quantifiable benefits are still larger than the NPV costs, and this strongly supports the efficiency of investments undertaken under the Project. Table 1: NPV and IRR in base scenario Component 1 Component 2 Total project IRR (%) 21.9 23.1 21.4 Discounted cost (present value of costs) (US$) 44.67 11.31 60.39 O/w project cost 21.86 11.31 33.16 Forgone earning 22.81 0.00 27.23 Present value of incremental benefits (US$) 97.76 19.90 117.66 NPV (US$) 53.09 8.59 61.69 Benefit/cost ratio 2.19 1.76 1.95 Source: World Bank staff estimates based on EGEP 2017 and project final costs and beneficiaries. Page 44 of 46 The World Bank Gabon - Skills Development and Employability Project (P146152) ANNEX 5. BORROWER, CO-FINANCIER AND OTHER PARTNER/STAKEHOLDER COMMENTS On March 23, 2023, the World Bank received the first draft of the Government of Gabon’s Project Completion Report. A workshop was held with stakeholders on April 20, 2023 to discuss the results, highlight lessons learned, and review areas of continuing need. The Government’s final Project Completion Report was submitted to the World Bank on April 30, 2023 and filed in WBDocs for information and reference. The official English version of the World Bank ICR Report, along with an unofficial French translation, was formally shared with the Government of Gabon on November 10, 2023. The government was invited to provide any comments on the ICR Report by November 20, 2023. No comments were received by the deadline. Page 45 of 46 The World Bank Gabon - Skills Development and Employability Project (P146152) ANNEX 6. SUPPORTING DOCUMENTS List of documents, reports, and studies used to write the ICR: • Project Appraisal Document, World Bank, 2016 • Project First Restructuring Paper, 2019 • Project Second Restructuring Paper, 2021 • Project Third Restructuring Paper, 2022 • Aide-memoires and Implementation Status Reports, 2015–2023 • Directorate-General for Statistics and Economic Studies. Gabonese Survey for the Evaluation and Monitoring of Poverty (EGEP-II) 2017. Ref. GAB_2017_EGEP-II_v02_M. Data downloaded from the site [https://catalog.ihsn.org/index.php/catalog/7826] on [September 2, 2023]. Page 46 of 46