Independent Evaluation Group (IEG) Implementation Completion Report (ICR) Review
Ayeyarwady Integrated River Basin Mgmt (P146482)
Report Number: ICRR0023583
1. Project Data
Project ID Project Name
P146482 Ayeyarwady Integrated River Basin Mgmt
Country Practice Area(Lead)
Myanmar Water
L/C/TF Number(s) Closing Date (Original) Total Project Cost (USD)
IDA-55590 30-Sep-2020 68,307,450.54
Bank Approval Date Closing Date (Actual)
09-Dec-2014 31-Mar-2022
IBRD/IDA (USD) Grants (USD)
Original Commitment 100,000,000.00 0.00
Revised Commitment 75,817,660.01 0.00
Actual 68,307,450.54 0.00
Prepared by Reviewed by ICR Review Coordinator Group
Kishore Laxmikant Ebru Karamete Ramachandra Jammi IEGSD (Unit 4)
Nadkarni
2. Project Objectives and Components
DEVOBJ_TBL
a. Objectives
The program development objective for the Series of Projects (of which the Ayeyarwady Integrated River
Basin Management Project - AIRBMP - was to be the first) was to strengthen integrated climate-resilient
management and development of the Ayeyarwady River Basin and national water resources. The Project
Development Objective of the Ayeyarwady Integrated River Basin Management Project is to contribute to the
development of integrated river basin management on the Ayeyarwady River (Financing Agreement,
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Schedule 1, dated February 4,2015 and the Project Appraisal Document, para. 29, dated November 12,
2014).
Revised PDO: At a Level 2 restructuring in 2016, the PDO was revised as follows: The Project Development
Objective of the Ayeyarwady Integrated River Basin Management Project is to contribute to the development
of integrated river basin management on the Ayeyarwady River, and, in the event of an Eligible Crisis or
Emergency, to provide immediate and effective response to said Eligible Crisis or Emergency.
The revision of the PDO did not affect the ambition of the Project.
For the ICRR, the PDO is parsed as follows:
Objective 1: To contribute to the development of integrated river basin management on the Ayeyarwady
River.
Objective 2: To provide immediate and effective response to an Eligible Crisis or Emergency.
A military takeover took place on February1, 2021 and the World Bank paused all project disbursements in
accordance with OP/BP 7.30. Accordingly, the information presented by the Implementation Completion and
Results Report (ICR) was up until the military takeover and was prepared based on a desk review of
supervision reports and interviews with World Bank staff.
b. Were the project objectives/key associated outcome targets revised during implementation?
Yes
Did the Board approve the revised objectives/key associated outcome targets?
No
c. Will a split evaluation be undertaken?
No
d. Components
(Reference PAD paras. 36 and 37 and ICR paras. 16 to 20).
The project had the following four components at appraisal. There were no significant changes in the
components during implementation.
1: Water Resource Management Institutions, Decision Support Systems & Capacity Building:
(estimated cost at appraisal US$32.00 million; actual cost at project closing US$18.54 million). This
component consisted of four subcomponents:
Subcomponent 1.1: Institutional Development: This subcomponent was to support: (a) design and
construction of a new National Water Resources Commission (NWRC) Secretariat and Hydro-Informatics
Information Center (HIC) headquarters facility in Mandalay and refurbishment of associated office space in
Yangon and Nay Pyi Taw; (b) development of NWRC institutions, including mandates, business
plans; staffing strategies; operational procedures; institutional legal and regulatory reviews and reforms
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relating to water resources management; and (c) capacity building, including possible twinning
arrangements. Subcomponent 1.2: Ayeyarwady River Basin Master Plan and Decision Support
System: This subcomponent was to support: (a) development of the AIRB Master Plan; development of a
Decision Support System (DSS) for the HIC; and stakeholder consultations to identify Basin Development
Objectives; (b) implementation of groundwater sediment surveys; and (c) implementation of a Basin-wide
Strategic Environmental and Social Assessment (SESA). Subcomponent 1.3: Preparation of Future
Investments: This subcomponent was to support preparation of activities to be included in a future series of
projects, including feasibility studies; procurement and safeguards related activities; workshops; and study
tours. The activities would not include detailed design work. Subcomponent 1.4: Implementation Support:
This subcomponent was to finance (a) consultant and advisory services for the Project Management Unit
(PMU) including for procurement, financial management, safeguards, and monitoring and evaluation (M&E);
(b) incremental operating costs; and (c) project-related communications and outreach including creation of a
Stakeholder Forum for consultation activities.
2: Hydro-Meteorological Observation and Information Systems Modernization: (estimated cost at
appraisal US$30.35 million; actual cost at project closing US$15.43 million). This component consisted of
three subcomponents:
Subcomponent 2.1: Institutional and Regulatory Strengthening; Capacity Building; and Implementation
Support: This subcomponent was to support: (a) institutional strengthening including development of a
robust legal and regulatory framework; (b) capacity building and training for staff; and (c) technical
assistance in systems design, integration, and operations; and (d) management and monitoring under
Component 2. Subcomponent 2.2: Modernization of Observation Infrastructure; Data Management
Systems; and Forecasting: This subcomponent was to support: (a) technical upgrading of the hydro-
meteorological observation network; (b) modernization of operations centers, data management and
communications/IT systems engineering and calibration facilities; (c) improvements in numerical weather
prediction systems and associated hydrological modeling systems; and (d) reconstruction sand
refurbishment of offices and facilities. Subcomponent 2.3: Enhancement of Hydromet Service Delivery
Systems: This subcomponent was to support the strengthening and delivery of hydro-met information
services including (a) creation of a Service Delivery Platform for weather and hydrological services; (b)
support for Disaster Risk Management (DRM) operations; (c) development of an Agricultural and Climate
Advisory Service (ACAS); and (d) creation of a National Framework for Climate Services.
3: Navigation Enhancement on the Ayeyarwady River: (estimated cost at appraisal US$37.85 million;
actual cost at project closing US$31.00 million). This component consisted of four subcomponents:
Subcomponent 3.1: Navigation Improvements: This subcomponent was to support navigation improvements
on the Ayeyarwady River through (a) 1-dimensional and 2-dimensional river modeling to identify the scope
of works; sedimentation modeling; preparation of detailed design documents; cost estimates and bidding
documents; and supervision of construction; (b) preparation of an Environmental and Social Impact
Assessment (ESIA) including site-specific Environmental and Social Management Plans (ESMPs), and if
needed, Resettlement Plans, and Indigenous Peoples Plans; and (c) construction of the enhancement
works. Subcomponent 3.2: Navigation Aids: This subcomponent was to support the purchase and
installation of navigation aids including buoys, signage, modern GPS mapping systems; communication
systems; and installation of lighting and signage systems. Subcomponent 3.3: Water Quality Monitoring:
This subcomponent was to support the design and piloting of a water quality monitoring system.
Subcomponent 3.4: Institutional Strengthening and Implementation Support: This subcomponent was to
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support (a) funding of implementation costs for Component 3; (b) a fleet optimization study; (c) capacity
building, training, communications and awareness activities.
4: Contingent Emergency Response: (allocation at appraisal US$0.00 million; actual utilized at project
closing US$3.22 million). This component was to allow for the rapid reallocation of funds from other
components to provide emergency recovery and reconstruction support in the event of a natural disaster,
emergency, and/or catastrophic event.
e. Comments on Project Cost, Financing, Borrower Contribution, and Dates
Project Cost: At appraisal, the project cost was estimated at US$100 million. The actual project cost at
completion was US$68.31 million. (ICR Data Sheet). The lower cost at completion was due to the fact that,
as a result of the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on global supply chains, delivery of some of the
equipment under Components 1 and 2 was significantly delayed. As a result, the costs of this equipment
could not be covered under the IDA credit due to the premature pause in disbursements after the military
takeover in February 2021. (ICR para. 71).
Financing: At appraisal, the Project was financed by an IDA (International Development Association) credit
of US$100 million, At project closing, a total of US$68.31 million had been disbursed. (ICR Data Sheet).
Disbursements of the IDA credit were paused after the military takeover in February 2021.
Borrower Contribution: There was no planned contribution from the Borrower at appraisal. The ICR does
not report any contribution from the Borrower during implementation.
Dates: The Project was approved on December 4, 2014. The planned effectiveness date was May 15,
2015, and the actual effectiveness date was June 10, 2015. The original closing date was September 30,
2020. It was extended once by a total of 18 months. The actual closing date was March 31, 2022.
Mid-Term Review (MTR): An MTR was carried out in March 2018. The findings informed the project
restructuring in December 2018.
Restructurings: The Project underwent three Level 2 restructurings during implementation.
First Restructuring (June 19, 2016, disbursed mount US$3.55 million). The PDO was revised to include a
reference to the CER (Contingent Emergency Response). Changes were made in the Results Framework
to clarify the definitions of some of the indicators. The revision of the PDO and changes to the indicators did
not impact the ambition of the Project. Costs were revised for some of the components together with
associated reallocations.
Second Restructuring (December 9, 2018, disbursed amount US$34.93 million). Changes were made in
the Results Framework to clarify the definitions of some of the indicators. One intermediate results indicator
(IRI) was dropped and six new IRIs were added. The changes did not lower the ambition of the Project.
Costs were revised for some of the components with associated reallocations. The loan closing date was
extended by 18 months to March 31,2022 to allow for completion of activities.
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Third Restructuring (March 12, 2020, disbursed amount US$38.86 million). The time for submission of
annual audits was extended from 6 months to 9 months.
3. Relevance of Objectives
Rationale
Country and Sector Context: Myanmar is a land-rich and water-rich country with large renewable
freshwater resources. The Ayeyarwady is Myanmar's largest river basin accounting for 60 percent of
Myanmar's landmass and serving 70 percent of its population, including two-thirds of the impoverished in
Myanmar. Myanmar is recognized as one of the countries most at risk to climate-related disasters. It has
the third-highest flood exposure risk in the world and is rated by the Global Climate Risk Index as the
second-most climate-change affected country. Myanmar's wealth of land and water resources provides
considerable opportunities to develop a modern service-oriented water-based economy, including
hydropower generation, increased agricultural output, and improved navigation along the Ayeyarwady
River, but these have been constrained by several factors, including a lack of institutional capacity and a
conducive legal and regulatory framework. Further, Myanmar's status as a fragility, conflict, and violence
(FCV) affected state has been accompanied by high degrees of social vulnerability, lack of coping capacity,
and internal conflicts. (ICR paras. 1 to 4).
At the time of appraisal in 2014, Myanmar was undergoing a notable process of change. The country had
opened up after decades of military rule and had embarked on a series of ambitious reforms. Myanmar's
economic growth rates were higher than in other South-East Asian countries. In recognition of the
importance of water resources management (WRM) during a period of rapid transition, a National Water
Resources Committee (NWRC) was established in July 2013 to manage the broad interrelated risks and
opportunities of the Ayeyarwady River and Myanmar's water resources. The NWRC has three pillars: (a) a
Secretariat; (b) a Hydro-Informatics Center (HIC); and (c) an Expert Group. The NWRC has been
functioning as the apex body overseeing the efforts of seven nexus ministries with mandates impacting
water. (ICR paras. 5 to 6).
Alignment with National Priorities: The Project Development Objective (PDO) was aligned with the
national priorities prevailing at the time of appraisal and continues to be aligned with the currently prevailing
national priorities reflected in the Myanmar Sustainable Development Plan (MSDP) for 2018-2030. The
PDO is consistent with the MSDP's Pillar 2 Goal 3 Strategy 3.6 "build a priority infrastructure base that
facilitates sustainable growth and economic diversification"; and Pillar 3 Goal 5 Strategy 5.2 "increase
climate change resilience, reduce exposure to disasters and shocks while protecting livelihoods, and
facilitate a shift to a low-carbon growth pathway". The PDO is also well aligned with the priorities in the
Myanmar Economic Recovery and Reform Plan by contributing to Goal 6 of the MERRP - Mitigate
Economic Shocks and Aftershocks Affecting the Most Vulnerable Groups. (ICR paras. 10 and 11).
Alignment with Country Partnership Framework (CPF): The PDO was aligned with the priorities in the
WBG (World Bank Group) Interim Strategy Note for Myanmar for FY2013-2014 prevailing at the time of
appraisal (a CPF for FY2015-2017 was still in preparation at the time) including its Pillar 1:
Transforming Institutions; Pillar 2: Building Confidence in the Reform Process; and Pillar 3: Preparing for
the Road Ahead. The PDO continues to be well aligned with the currently prevailing CPF for FY2020-2023
particularly Focus Area 3: Enhancing Climate and Disaster Resilience and Sustainable Natural Resource
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and Environmental Management and its Objective 3.2: Improve the Sustainable Management of the Green,
Blue, and Brown Environment. (CPF. para. 48).
Prior Bank Experience: While the World Bank had considerable experience in supporting Integrated
Water Resource Management (IWRM) and River Basin Management (RBM) projects in the South-East Asia
and East Asia Regions, the Project was the WBG's first WRM operation in Myanmar and was a part of the
WBG's re-engagement in Myanmar after several years following the cessation of involvement in the years
of conflict and political uncertainty. Preparation of the AIRBMP took into account relevant findings of the
Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) of FY 2013-2015 which noted that a fragmented approach to the
management of the river basins poses a major risk to sustainable growth and development in Myanmar and
emphasized the need for a coordinated approach to the management of the country's water resources.
(ICR paras. 7 and 8).
Relevance of Project Development Objectives: Given the context described above, the PDO was
consistent, and remains consistent, with the national and CPF priorities prevailing at the time of appraisal
and at the present time. While the PDO implicitly recognizes the importance of improving IWRM in
Myanmar, the formulation of the PDO "to contribute to the development of IWRB management on the
Ayeyarwady River" is of a relatively low order in regard to outcomes. However, taking into account the
definitions and targets of the PDO indicators and Intermediate Results Indicators (IRIs), the PDO can be
assessed to be of High relevance.
Rating Relevance TBL
Rating
High
4. Achievement of Objectives (Efficacy)
EFFICACY_TBL
OBJECTIVE 1
Objective
To contribute to the development of integrated river basin management on the Ayeyarwady River
Rationale
Theory of Change (TOC): The PAD did not provide an explicit TOC; however, the ICR provides a
diagrammatic TOC inferred from the Project 's design and components. To improve integrated river basin
management (IRBM) in Myanmar, it was essential to strengthen the institutional capacity of the implementing
agencies through establishment of improved regulations and procedures; modernizing/upgrading of required
infrastructure; and provision of training to the concerned staff. This would include: (a) Establishing Water
Resource Management (WRM) institutions; developing Decision Support Systems (DSS); and building related
capacity; (b) Modernization of Department of Meteorology and Hydrology's (DMH) Hydrometeorological
Observation and Information Systems; and (c) Providing Directorate of Water Resources and Improvement of
River Systems (DWIR) the tools and capacity to enhance navigation on the Ayeyarwady River. The Project
would provide inputs through financing of investments and technical assistance, including expert advice,
supporting equipment and systems, and required construction/upgrading of facilities. The outputs would
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include: (a) For the National Water Resources Committee (NWRC), preparation of assessment reports;
development of river basin master Plan, and decision support system; drafting of water resources legislation;
and establishment of a multi-stakeholder forum. (b) For DMH, installation and operationalization of
automated hydro-met stations; and capacity enhancement of concerned staff in operating modern hydro-met
systems. (c) For DWIR, creation of hydrographic maps for relevant sections of the Ayeyarwady river;
installation of buoys and other equipment to facilitate navigation; preparation of feasibility studies and
engineering designs for river works; construction of selected river works; and re-organization of DWIR's
operational structure. Intermediate outcomes would include: (a) putting in place of institutionalized IRBM
processes and tools supported by functional decision support systems; (b) improvement in forecasting
accuracy and reduction in the required lead time to enable more timely and accurate weather advisory
services; and (c) improved navigation on the Ayeyarwady river. The outcome would be strengthened
operational capacity in DMH and DWIR including the planning framework, tools and systems for more
effective IRBM on the Ayeyarwady River. The longer-term outcome would be integrated climate-resilient
management and development of the Ayeyarwady river basin and national water resources.
The causal links and full results chain in the TOC in regard to Objective 1 were adequate. The PDO Indicators
and Intermediate Results Indicators (IRIs) adopted (including after revisions under restructurings) were
generally relevant, measurable, and appropriate for assessing achievement of the objective. However, as
discussed below, the PDO indicators needed to be jointly considered with the supporting IRIs to assess
achievement of outcomes.
Key assumptions were: (i) the political stability that had been in place at the time of appraisal would continue
during and after the implementation of the Project; (ii) the Government of Myanmar (GoM) would continue to
give priority to improving IRBM and navigation on the Ayeyarwady River; (iii) the concerned implementing
agencies would adequately internalize the enhanced planning, operating and monitoring requirements; and
(iv) the agencies would receive timely and adequate financial and technical support to be able to carry out
their functions effectively and efficiently.
Outputs and Intermediate Results Indicators (IRIs): (ICR Annex 1 - Results Framework, and paras. 36 and
37).
Outputs and IRIs are indicated separately below under each of the three components of the Project.
Component 1: Water Resource Management Institutions, Decision Support Systems, and Building
Capacity.
Key outputs included the following:
A comprehensive State of Basin Assessment (SOBA) was published in 2018.
A Draft Basin Master Plan was prepared by February 2021.
A Decision Support System (DSS) composed of models for hydrologic, hydraulic, and water quality
monitoring, together with a GIS (Geographic Information System) interface was established.
A Multi-Stakeholder Engagement Process was prepared.
91 professionals were provided on-the-job training, including in the use of the DSS.
Results were measured by four IRIs the targets for which were achieved as follows:
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IRI 1.1: Preparation of State of the Basin Assessment (SOBA) Report: (baseline - no; target - yes; actual -
target achieved): The SOBA report was published in 2018 and served as the foundation for the Ayeyarwady
Reiver Basin Master Plan. The SOBA was the first time a comprehensive water resources assessment was
done in Myanmar and helped planners get a better understanding of the state of the Ayeyarwady River Basin,
including trends in key environmental, social, and economic parameters of the Ayeyarwady system.
IRI 1.2: Development of Ayeyarwady River Basin Decision Support System (DSS): (baseline - no; target -
yes; actual - target achieved): The DSS was completed in 2020 and handed over to DWIR as a temporary
custodian. The DSS is a functional decision support system for multi-sectoral basin planning. It includes
hydrologic, hydraulic, and water quality model, and is coupled with a GIS-based user interface.
IRI 1.3: Preparation of feasibility studies for future investments: (baseline - 0; target - 2; actual - 1; target
partially achieved): Due to insufficient funds and remaining time for implementation, only one of the two
targeted feasibility studies was completed under the Project. The other study was moved to be covered under
the planned Additional Financing which did not take place as a result of the military takeover in February
2021.
IRI 1.4: NWRC and its institutions legalized: (baseline - no; target - yes; actual - target not achieved): The ICR
notes (Results Framework and para. 33) that there was no progress observed regarding the targeted
institutionalization. The legal anchoring of NWRC was to be arranged through enactment of the Water Law
and the Water Resources Law. The Water Law had not been drafted prior to project closing. Both laws were
not formally adopted at the time of the military takeover in February 2021.
Component 2: Hydrometeorological Observation and Information System Modernization.
Key outputs:
100 Automatic Weather Stations (AWS) and Automatic Water Level Monitoring Stations (AWLS) were
purchased under the IRM (Component 4) and are fully functional. Equipment for another 101 stations
was purchased under Component 2 but could not be installed due to the disbursement pause after the
military takeover in February 2021.
Two upper-air radio sounding systems were purchased and are operational. These have contributed
to significant improvement in terms of accuracy, timeliness, and reliability of local and regional
weather forecasting.
119 DMH staff (86 women and 33 men) were trained in use of systems and monitoring and
forecasting procedures.
64 DMH staff (41 women and 23 men) participated in study visits.
Results were measured by three IRIs the targets for which were achieved as follows:
IRI 2.1: Preparation of Hydromet System Design: (baseline - no; target - yes; actual - yes; target partially
achieved): While the design for the establishment of a modern Information Technology (IT)-based data
management hydro-met system was completed and key components installed, the system was not fully
operational at project closing due to the pause in disbursement after February 2021. The ICR reports (para.
37) that, notwithstanding the lack of a fully operational Hydromet system, weather services have improved
and DMH is able to issue localized forecast to 18 cities compared to 3 cities before the Project, with coverage
extended to 10 million people compared to 6.6 million people before the Project.
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IRI 2.2: Upgrading of Hydromet Stations: (baseline - 0; target - 161; actual - 102; target substantially
underachieved). While 102 hydro-met stations have been upgraded, the target of covering 161 stations could
not be achieved because of the pause in disbursements after February 2021.
IRI 2.3: Development of Site-Specific Forecasts: (baseline - 0; target -3; actual - 17; target substantially
exceeded). Site-specific forecasts were extended to cover 18 cities (from 3 before the Project), thereby
substantially exceeding the target.
Component 3: Navigation Enhancement on the Ayeyarwady River.
Key outputs:
Construction of strategic river works to keep the main navigation channel open on the Ayeyarwady
River.
River buoys with top lighting installed over a 200 km stretch of the river to visually guide vessels
during navigation.
Hydrographic charts prepared for key stretches of the river to provide accurate information concerning
potential navigation constraints.
Training and necessary equipment provided to DWIR to conduct maintenance work.
Dredging machinery provided to DWIR to help maintain the required navigation depth of the river.
Several small river interventions/works completed to remove local navigation bottlenecks.
Results under the Component were to be assessed using four IRIs the targets for which were achieved as
follows:
IRI 3.1: Completion of Channel Stabilization Works for Subproject1: (baseline - no; target - 100%; actual -
100%; target achieved). DWIR successfully completed the construction of strategic river works in branches of
the Mandalay Channel (Subproject 1). Subsequent analysis has shown good performance of the river works
with all channels being stabilized after the completion of the works.
IRI 3.2: Installation of Aids to Navigation: (baseline - 0; target - 100%; actual - 40%; target substantially
underachieved): Due to implementation delays and budget constraints, not all the planned river buoys could
be installed under the Project. It was decided that the remaining buoys would be covered under the planned
Additional Financing which did not materialize following the pause in disbursement in February 2021.
IRI 3.4: DWIR Re-organization and Operations Plan: (baseline - no; target - yes; actual - no; target not
achieved). The preparation of the plans was not achieved by project closing.
Outcomes
Achievement of PDO Indicators: Under the Results Framework, three PDO indicators were adopted as
follows:
PDO Indicator 1: River Basin Master Plan Developed: (baseline - no; target - yes; actual - partially achieved).
While a draft Master Plan was prepared at the output level, from an outcome perspective, its formalization
required enactment of the Water Law and the full functionality of the NWRC as an inter-ministerial apex body
on water resources management. Both these critical requirements were not competed following the military
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takeover in February 2021. In regard to the four supporting IRIs, two were achieved and the other two not
achieved, including the critical requirement concerning legal recognition of the NWRC and its institutions.
(ICR Results Framework, para. 33, and Table 5).
PDO Indicator 2: Improved DMH Weather and Climate Services: (to be measured by the percentage of
beneficiaries expressing satisfaction with the services): (baseline 45%; target - 65%; actual - 65.50%; target
partially achieved). The results were based on the findings of the November 2020 Monsoon Forum which was
the last one held before project closing. The User Satisfaction Index was based on stakeholders' feedback
regarding the usefulness, feed time, and accuracy of forecasts and warnings issued by DMH. The baseline of
45% was based on the results of the Monsoon Forum in 2018. However, the ICR notes that, while the target
value of the outcome indicator has been achieved, it should be taken with caution as the Project was not able
to measure user satisfaction towards the end of the Project reflecting the latest achievemnets of the Project
(ICR para. 19).
PDO Indicator 3: Improved Navigation between Mandalay and Yangon to desired operating standards: (to be
measured by the percentage of activities contributing to the PDO that were completed successfully): (baseline
- 0; target - 80%; actual - 80%; target achieved). The ICR reports (Results Framework) that 80% of the
activities that were contributing to the Project outcome were implemented successfully but does not provide
an explanation as to how this was determined. The remaining 20% of activities were to be covered under the
planned Additional Financing which did not materialize following the pause in disbursements in February
2021. In regard to the four supporting IRIs, as discussed earlier above, two were achieved and the remaining
two not achieved, including the one relating to preparation of the DWIR Re-organization and Operations Plan.
Assessment of Outcome: Assessment of the outcome was to be based on the achievement of targets set
under three PDO indicators supported by eleven Intermediate Results Indicators (IRIs). While targets for two
of the three PDO indicators were achieved, targets for five of the eleven supporting IRIs were not achieved.
Moreover, as recognized in the ICR (Results Framework), the PDO Indicator 1 is more of an output level
indicator unless accompanied by completion of activities necessary to realize the outcome. Due in part to the
pause in disbursements after the military takeover in February 2021, several critical activities remained to be
completed at project closing, including the formal legal recognition of NWRC and its institutions (IRI. 1.4);
enactment of the Water Law and the Water Resources Law; and the lack of an operational hydro-met system
as DMH could not install critical system components. (ICR para. 39). The HIC (Hydro-Informatics Center)
was not set up since NWRC lacked a formal mandate (ICR para. 33). The DWIR Re-organization and
Operations Plan (IRI 3.4) was not prepared. Unless these shortcomings are addressed, sustainability of the
gains made under the Project will be at risk.
Rating of Efficacy: Based on the foregoing, the ICRR rates the efficacy for achievement of Objective 1 as
Modest.
Rating
Modest
OBJECTIVE 2
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Objective
To provide immediate and effective response to an Eligible Crisis or Emergency.
Rationale
Theory of Change (TOC): The overall TOC for the Project was provided under Objective 1 above.
Following the major tropical cyclone in 2015, the GoM declared a national disaster and requested support
from the World Bank through an IDA IRM (Immediate Response Mechanism). Under the Level 2 restructuring
in June 2016, the IRM was triggered and US$4.6 million equivalent of funding from the other three
components was allocated to the Contingent Emergency Response Component (CERC) under the Project. A
Contingent Emergency Response Implementation Plan (CERIP) was prepared. T
The related PDO Indicator was 'Goods procured and distributed as outlined in the CERIP': (baseline - no;
target - yes; actual - yes; target achieved).
The funds were used to purchase and install essential equipment and systems for DMH. Following
completion of activities in February 2019, an undisbursed balance of US$1.4 million was refunded under the
IDA credit. On the other hand, the ICR noted that through the IRM project funds were spent on 100 AWS and
AWLs in addition to 102 hydro-met stations that were planned under Component 2. However, the stations
lacked the required technical specifications for seamless integration into the overall hydro-met system at
DMH. In hindsight, it was not optimal to use the IRM to acquire some of the hydro-met stations that were
already planned under the original AIRBM project. The IRM should have been used differently to support
complementary activities (ICR page 35).
Based on the above, the achievement of Objective 2 is Substantial with moderate shortcomings.
Rating
Substantial
OVERALL EFF TBL
OBJ_TBL
OVERALL EFFICACY
Rationale
The overall efficacy with which the Project achieved its objectives is based on the underlying efficacies in
regard to Objectives 1 and 2.
For Objective 1, the efficacy is rated Modest due limited achievement of the intended outcomes, including
several critical activities remaining incomplete at project closing. This was due in significant part to the military
takeover in February 2021 and the resulting pause in disbursement.
For Objective 2, the efficacy is rated Substantial with moderate shortcomings due to the completion of the
planned activities under the Contingent Emergency Response Implementation Plan (CERIP). However, as
discussed above, there were integration issues that constrained the functionality of the equipment purchased
through the IRM, and in hindsight, the IRM should have been used to finance other complementary activities.
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Based on the foregoing, the overall efficacy is rated Modest.
Overall Efficacy Rating Primary Reason
Modest Low achievement
5. Efficiency
Economic Efficiency
Appraisal Estimates: At appraisal, the quantitative economic analysis of project costs and benefits did not
include estimation of Economic Internal Rate of Return (EIRR), Economic Net Present Value (ENPV), or a Cost
Effectiveness analysis. The Project's investment of US$100 million was expected to benefit over 10 million
people through avoided losses and direct benefits. Using a global benchmarking methodology, potential benefits
in investments from hydro-met improvements were estimated at between US$1.5 million and US$8.5 million
annually depending upon the rate of growth of GDP (Gross Domestic Product). (ICR para. 50).
Post-Completion Estimates: The ICR did not include quantitative estimates of the economic efficiency for any
of the three components. For Components 1 and 2, the ICR noted (paras. 51 and 52) that the economic
efficiency was rated Modest as sustainability of the achievements was at risk because the NWRC and the HIC
were not fully established. For Component 3, the ICR noted that economic benefits included improvements in
navigation; reduction in avoided losses of properties and agricultural land; and training provided to staff
members. The ICR rated the efficiency of Component 3 as Substantial due to 95 percent of the intended
activities being successfully implemented. (ICR para. 53).
Rating of Economic Efficiency: The economic efficiency is rated as Modest given the lack of completion of the
planned activities and risks to sustainability of the gains under the Project.
Implementation Efficiency
Project Cost: The estimated project cost at appraisal was US$100 million. At completion, the project cost was
US$68.3 million. During implementation, there were cost overruns in some of the activities and some of the
activities had to be transferred to the Additional Financing (which did not materialize due to the pause in
disbursement after February 2021). The lower cost at completion is due to the non-completed activities following
the disbursement pause in February 2021 rather than to cost efficiencies during implementation.
Project Duration: Despite the extension of the closing date by 18 months to allow for completion of activities,
several of the activities remained incomplete at project closing. This was largely due to the pause in
disbursement after February 2021.
Rating of implementation efficiency: The Project's implementation efficiency is rated Modest.
Efficiency Rating
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Modest
a. If available, enter the Economic Rate of Return (ERR) and/or Financial Rate of Return (FRR) at appraisal
and the re-estimated value at evaluation:
Rate Available? Point value (%) *Coverage/Scope (%)
0
Appraisal 0
Not Applicable
0
ICR Estimate 0
Not Applicable
* Refers to percent of total project cost for which ERR/FRR was calculated.
6. Outcome
The Project's outcome is assessed based on the underlying ratings for (i) Relevance of Objectives; (ii) Overall
Efficacy; and (iii) Efficiency. The PDOs were well-aligned with the priorities under the national programs and the
World Bank's CPFs at the time of appraisal as well as at project closure. Accordingly, Relevance of Objectives
is rated High. The efficacy in regard to Objective 1 is rated Modest, due limited achievement of the intended
outcomes as a result of pause in disbursement after the military takeover in February 2021. For Objective 2
Efficacy is rated Substantial with moderate shortcomings based on completion of the planned activities but with
integration issues for some of the procured equipment. Consequently, the Project's overall efficacy is rated
Modest. The Project's economic efficiency and implementation efficiency are rated Modest, leading to a rating of
Modest in regard to the Project's overall efficiency. Based on the foregoing, the Project's outcome is rated as
Moderately Unsatisfactory.
a. Outcome Rating
Moderately Unsatisfactory
7. Risk to Development Outcome
The ICR noted that the main risks to development outcome arise largely from institutional and operational
challenges resulting from the unfavorable political situation in the country. (ICR paras. 95 and 96).
There is a risk that the DSS may not be adequately utilized since there is no longer a relevant and competent
authority responsible for its operation. DWIR is the temporary custodian of the DSS (Decision Support
System) as the HIC (Hydro-Informatics Center) does not function.
There is a risk that hydro-meteorological skills developed under the Project, including in digital data
management operations, may be lost without continued training and knowledge exchange with international
experts.
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There is a risk that hydro-met equipment that was delivered to Myanmar, but not installed due to the pause in
disbursement, may deteriorate over time if it is not installed and made operational.
8. Assessment of Bank Performance
a. Quality-at-Entry
The strategic relevance was well-aligned, and continues to be well-aligned, with the priorities in the
national programs and in the WBG's CPFs (Country Partnership Frameworks). Although a theory of
change (TOC) was not articulated in the PAD, the implicit TOC derived in the ICR from the Project
experience indicates that it was generally sound. While relevant, the PDO was pitched at a relatively low
level in regard to outcomes. However, the targets under the supporting PDO indicators and Intermediate
Results Indicators (IRIs) were set at an adequate level. Project design took into account the limited
capacity in the implementing agencies. The Project was therefore designed as a framework project with
the expectation that it would be followed by other projects. During this first project, project preparation
focused on putting into place World Bank fiduciary systems, staffing of the Project Management Unit
(PMU), and hiring international experts as advisors to the PMU. Given the FCV (Fragility, Conflict,
Violence) situation, there were difficulties in preparing the feasibility and other technical studies
necessary for preparing bidding documents for the planned investments. This resulted in some
underestimation of contract values leading to cost overruns and financing gaps during implementation.
Thus, readiness for implementation was low. These shortcomings had to be addressed in early stages of
implementation. Parallel technical assistance from the Netherlands in the design of river works and from
AWP (Australian Water Partnership) in the implementation of SOBA (Status of Basin Assessment)
contributed to preparing for implementation. (ICR para. 91). Overall, as acknowledged in the ICR (para.
65), a shortening of the duration of the Project from 7 years to 5 years was a weakness in design
considering that Myanmar was designated an FCV country.
Quality-at-Entry Rating
Moderately Satisfactory
b. Quality of supervision
Overall, the World Bank team worked proactively with the counterparts to anticipate and resolve issues
affecting implementation progress. A Mid-Term Review (MTR) was carried out in March 2018 and its
findings informed the Level 2 restructuring in December 2018. Reflecting the experience during
implementation, changes were made to the Results Framework to provide greater clarity in regard to
definitions and to add new IRIs to better capture relevant results under the Project. Capacity-building and
hands-on support were provided to the implementing agencies, including through specialized consultants
and workshops. The Project's Task Team Leader (TTL) and most team members were based in the region,
and this facilitated timely interaction with the counterparts. During the implementation period of 87 months
(7.25 years), the supervision team carried of a total of 18 missions, including in-person visits and through
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videoconferencing. Over the implementation period, the team had three TTLs. The changes in
responsibility were reported to have proceeded smoothly. The Bank teams were adequately staffed with
technical, safeguards, and fiduciary specialists, and employed specialized consultants as needed. Back-to-
Office reporting was generally candid, and the Implementation Status and Results Reports (ISRs) were
filed in a timely manner. (ICR para. 92).
Quality of Supervision Rating
Satisfactory
Overall Bank Performance Rating
Moderately Satisfactory
9. M&E Design, Implementation, & Utilization
a. M&E Design
Although not articulated in the PAD, the TOC and results chain (as inferred in the ICR) were generally
clear. The PDO indicators and Intermediate Results Indicators (IRIs) were adequate except in regard to the
PDO indicator concerning Development of a River Basin Master Plan which was more of an output level
indicator in the absence of other necessary indicators required to realize the outcome. At project design, it
was not possible to define the PDO indicator targets with precision because of a lack of capacity in the
counterparts. The Results Framework (RF) was designed under the assumption that that the full RF
including the indicators and targets would be set under the MTR in 2018. There was no dedicated M&E
Plan to support M&E implementation. (ICR paras. 73 to 75).
b. M&E Implementation
During implementation, shortcomings in the Results Framework had to be addressed. These included a
clarification of the definitions as these were relatively generic and sometimes more output oriented than
outcome focused. Further, the RF was not adequately capturing the institutional advancements under the
Project. To address this new IRIs were added. The Project monitored and reported on indicators and
targets at all levels. The results were documented bi-annually in project progress reports. As
recommended during the MTR, the PMU prepared a Results-Based Action Plan (RBAP) to keep track of
project costs, improve planning of procurement processes, keep track of implementation issues, and flag
risks regarding not meeting certain indicator targets. (ICR para. 76 and 77).
c. M&E Utilization
The M&E data was used to inform project implementation and support project management decisions.
The ICR reports that the quality of the data collected at the beneficiary level was scattered and the data
were not used to inform improved outreach to communities and stakeholders. Shortcomings in M&E
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design and monitoring arrangements hampered effective monitoring of project progress for a long time
(ICR para. 80).
Rating: Given the shortcomings mentioned above, the M&E quality is rated Modest.
M&E Quality Rating
Modest
10. Other Issues
a. Safeguards
Environmental and Social
The Project was classified as Category A - Full Assessment due to its large geographical coverage, its
focus on integrated river basin planning, and an assessment of subsequent infrastructure investments. The
following safeguards were triggered: Environmental Assessment (EA) OP 4.01; Natural Habitats (NH) OP
4.04; Forests OP 4.36; Pest Management OP 4.09; Physical Cultural Resources (PCR) OP 4.11;
Indigenous Peoples (IP) OP 4.10; Involuntary Resettlement (IR) OP 4.12; Safety of Dams (SOD) OP 4.37;
and Projects on International Waters (PIW) OP 7.50. During preparation, all safeguards instruments were
disclosed as required. No additional safeguards policies were triggered. The Project's environmental and
social safeguards performance was initially rated Moderately Satisfactory but was upgraded to rated
Satisfactory once an international safeguards adviser was appointed to support the PMU to enhance
safeguards oversight and help build capacity in the government staff. In the May 2020 ISR (Implementation
Status and Results Report) the Environmental and Social performance rating was Satisfactory. The ICR
reports (para. 88) that no environmental risks materialized during project implementation. Construction
works were carried out outside the stretch of the river known to be the habitat of the Ayeyarwady Dolphin.
There was one case of alleged gender-based violence at a workers' camp. The case was registered at the
World Bank and handed over to the Myanmar authorities for further processing under the governing
Myanmar law. The project team informed IEG that the World Bank placed the Project under gender-related
risk retrofitting and that this risk was removed later during implementation. In the context of the planned
Additional Financing (which did not materialize following the pause in disbursement in February 2021), an
updated Environmental and Social Management Framework (ESMF) was prepared together with an
associated Resettlement Policy Framework, including a Grievance Redress Mechanism (GRM). The total
number of grievances received and resolved was 80.
b. Fiduciary Compliance
Procurement: During the early stages of implementation, procurement progress was mostly rated
Moderately Satisfactory and was upgraded to Satisfactory in June 2018 with improved performance by the
PMU. The procurement rating remained Satisfactory thereafter. No procurement-related risks materialized
during the implementation. There was one case of fraud by one of the bidders for a goods contract under
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Component 1. The case was investigated by the Integrity Vice Presidency (INT) and resolved. (ICR para.
82).
Financial Management (FM): The Project complied with FM arrangements and requirements. FM
performance was upgraded to Satisfactory in December 2020 reflecting significant improvements in the
PMU's FM performance. The submission of the quarterly interim financial reports was on time and of
acceptable quality. There were no overdue audit reports. The ICR does not indicate whether the audit
reports provided unqualified opinions. The ICR does not report any case of ineligible expenditures.
c. Unintended impacts (Positive or Negative)
The ICR reports (para. 64) that riparian communities received protection against riverbank erosion. A by-
product of the investments in channel stabilization is the reduced risk of riverbank erosion. Under the
Project, 16,563 people directly received improved protection against riverbank erosion including protection
of properties and agricultural land. This was an unintended benefit as the riverbank protection was
primarily to stabilize the river channels for enhanced navigation.
d. Other
Gender: The Project was not gender-tagged. Gender-disaggregated targets were introduced under the
Level 2 restructuring in 2019. Although the Project did not specifically target activities to promote the
participation of women, the percentage of female participation in capacity-building activities under the
Project reached 49 percent (slightly below the target of 50 percent). (ICR para. 58). The project team
informed IEG that the World Bank placed the Project under gender-related risk retrofitting and that this risk
was removed later during implementation.
Institutional Strengthening: The Project had a strong focus on capacity building in river basin planning;
decision support systems; operation of modern hydro-met systems; and river navigation. Capacity was
strengthened in project management, including procurement processes and financial management.
Poverty Reduction and Shared Prosperity: The Project indirectly supported poverty reduction in the
Ayeyarwady River Basin by contributing to delivery of more reliable and better-quality water to all users;
strengthening disaster risk management and delivering more effective warnings; helping vulnerable
communities, particularly those living in flood prone areas to better prepare for and cope with hydrological-
related natural disasters; and enabling safer, more efficient inland water transport. (ICR para. 62).
11. Ratings
Reason for
Ratings ICR IEG
Disagreements/Comment
Moderately Moderately
Outcome
Unsatisfactory Unsatisfactory
IEG rates Quality at Entry as
Bank Performance Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory
Moderately Satisfactory leading
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to a rating of Moderately
Satisfactory for overall Bank
performance.
Quality of M&E Modest Modest
Quality of ICR --- Substantial
12. Lessons
The ICR lists a number of relevant lessons drawn from the Project's experience. From these, IEG
derives the following lessons that are relevant for similar projects implemented in comparable
environments.
Transitioning to a more sustainable and cost-effective river management strategy requires
sufficient time for implementation of a step-by-step approach, including piloting new
approaches and creating institutions. The Project assisted DWIR in shifting from investments in
more expensive rigid structures that do not offer any flexibility when morphological and hydraulic
conditions in the river change, to an approach that is based on measurements and offers a mix of
soft structures, where possible, and hard structures, where necessary. In addition, creating robust
institutions that can sustainably maintain themselves in an FCV context may require a longer
implementation period than the conventional period for a project. (ICR paras.97a and 97b).
Implementation risks can be mitigated through phased implementation and flexibility. In
regard to the installation of river buoys on the Ayeyarwady River, experience from the installation of
the first set of buoys fed into making design improvements in the subsequent batches of buoys,
helping to optimize the operation and maintenance (O&M) protocols at the onset of the wet season.
(ICR para 97c).
Investments in appropriate analytical tools can reduce the investment costs of river works.
Development of 2D hydro-morphological models and utilizing them for simulations helped DWIR in
making informed decision-making on the most cost-effective approach to stabilize river channels and
protect riparian communities against riverbank erosion. (ICR para. 97d).
Effective hydro-climatic risk management requires close collaboration between Integrated
Water Resources Management and Disaster Risk Management institutions at all levels. The
project successfully adopted the IWRM-DRM nexus as a central tenet in project design resulting in
positive impacts on both agencies, DWIR and DMH, and the NWRC as inter-ministerial water
resources authority. Creating an IWRM framework was effective in sustainably managing Myanmar's
abundant water resources with impacts on economic growth and poverty reduction. (ICR para. 97e).
Utilizing the immediate response mechanism as a supplementary source for funding
procurement of equipment (in addition to that allocated under the Project) can create
problems for seamless integration of the separately procured equipment into the overall
systems utilized by the agencies (e.g the hydro-met system used by DMH). The Project's
experience showed that it was not optimal to use the IRM to acquire some of the hydro-met systems
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that were already planned under the Project. The IRM should have been used differently to support
complementary activities.
13. Assessment Recommended?
No
14. Comments on Quality of ICR
The ICR is generally well-written, candid, and follows the OPCS guidelines (except in regard to length 35 pages
compared to the recommended 15 pages or less). The ICR provides an adequate theory of change in regard to
the causal links and the results chain. The reporting is generally outcome focused but constrained in some
cases by weaknesses in the M&E system. The ICR provides a number of lessons drawn from the Project's
experience that are relevant for similar projects undertaken in comparable environments. However, the ICR
have the following shortcomings. Given the nature of the Project which was assigned an Environmental
Assessment Category A and the number of safeguards triggered. the discussion in regard to safeguards is
limited. The ICR does not provide an explanation of the basis and methodology on which some of the achieved
results were calculated (e.g. for the PDO Indicator regarding Improved Navigation between Mandalay and
Yangon to the desired operating standards).
a. Quality of ICR Rating
Substantial
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