The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Ethiopia Digital Foundations Project (P171034) Ethiopia Digital Foundations Project (P171034) EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AFRICA | Ethiopia | Digital Development Global Practice | IBRD/IDA | Investment Project Financing | FY 2021 | Seq No: 6 | ARCHIVED on 06-Nov-2023 | ISR58554 | Implementing Agencies: Ministry of Finance and Economic Development, EthERNet -- Ethiopian Research and Education Network, Ethiopian Communications Authority, Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, Ministry of Innovation and Technology (MInT), Prime Minister's Office Key Dates Key Project Dates Bank Approval Date: 21-Apr-2021 Effectiveness Date: 23-Jul-2021 Planned Mid Term Review Date: 12-Jul-2024 Actual Mid-Term Review Date: Original Closing Date: 31-Oct-2026 Revised Closing Date: 31-Oct-2026 pdoTable Project Development Objectives Project Development Objective (from Project Appraisal Document) The Project Development Objective is to increase the inclusiveness and affordability of digital services and digital job creation in Ethiopia. Has the Project Development Objective been changed since Board Approval of the Project Objective? No Components Table Name 1. Digital economy, enabling legal and regulatory environment:(Cost $20.00 M) 2. Digital government and connectivity:(Cost $133.00 M) 3. Digital business and entrepreneurship:(Cost $40.00 M) 4. Project management:(Cost $7.00 M) 5. Contingent Emergency Response Component Overall Ratings Name Previous Rating Current Rating Progress towards achievement of PDO Satisfactory Satisfactory Overall Implementation Progress (IP) Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory Overall Risk Rating High Substantial Implementation Status and Key Decisions Project status: The project was approved by the WB Board on April 21, and the financing agreement with the Government was signed on May 7, 2021. The project was declared effective on July 23 2021 and disbursement currently stands at 24 percent. Digital market environment: There are continuing favorable developments in the general digital market environment. Following the licensing of a new market entrant (with support from the IFC), Safaricom formally launched its services in October 2022, and has so far gained over five million subscribers. It is progressively expanding its network to more cities. Safaricom launched mobile money services in August 2023. The process of partial privatization of Ethio Telecom has been delayed due the fact that private partners would want management control and more than the 45 per cent of shares currently offered by the Government. The licensing of a third operator is also delayed. The next step would be for the Ethiopian 11/6/2023 Page 1 of 9 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Ethiopia Digital Foundations Project (P171034) Communications Authority (ECA) to license more facilities-based network operators, such as internet service providers, cell tower companies or low-earth orbit operators, as this will attract new investment. Disbursement: The project has generally been disbursing well for goods, ICT equipment and consultant firm contracts. The largest contracts awarded include spectrum management and data center equipment for ECA, supply of Communications Rooms and an events management company for hosting the Internet Governance Forum. However, other contracts have been delayed by procurement complaints, while the recruitment of individual consultants is also constrained by low salary rates. Disbursement Condition. Although the project was declared effective in July 2021, there has been a delay in meeting the disbursement condition that relates to component 3 on digital entrepreneurship. This has now been resolved by dropping the planned use of Matching Grants, and the transfer of US$10m in funds from Component 3 to Component 1, which is disbursing well. Indicators. Two of the PDO Indicators (on mobile data prices, in US$ and as a % of monthly GNI per capita) and three of the intermediate indicators (on 3G coverage, eGovernment services and ECA licenses awarded) have now been met or exceeded. Risks Systematic Operations Risk-rating Tool Risk Category Rating at Approval Previous Rating Current Rating Political and Governance High Substantial Substantial Macroeconomic Substantial High High Sector Strategies and Policies High Substantial Substantial Technical Design of Project or Program Moderate Moderate Moderate Institutional Capacity for Implementation and Substantial High Substantial Sustainability Fiduciary Substantial Substantial Substantial Environment and Social Moderate Moderate Moderate Stakeholders Moderate Moderate Moderate Other Substantial Substantial Substantial Overall High High Substantial Results PDO Indicators by Objectives / Outcomes to increase inclusiveness and affordability of digital services in Ethiopia IN01361715 ►Penetration rate of internet users (fixed and/or mobile) per 100 inhabitants, disaggregated by gender (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 15.90 16.70 16.70 30.00 11/6/2023 Page 2 of 9 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Ethiopia Digital Foundations Project (P171034) Date 31-Dec-2018 31-Dec-2021 31-Dec-2021 31-Dec-2026 This indicator, which is based on household survey data, measures the number of people who have used the internet at least one within the last month (internet users), as a percentage of the population aged Comments: 15+. IN01361801 Penetration rate of internet users (fixed and/or mobile) per 100 inhabitants, who are female (Percentage, Custom Breakdown) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 13.03 13.70 13.70 25.00 Date 31-Dec-2018 31-Dec-2021 31-Dec-2021 31-Dec-2026 IN01361802 ►Broadband internet prices per month, mobile, in US$ (Amount(USD), Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 12.00 1.00 0.61 2.00 Date 30-Nov-2018 30-Apr-2022 18-Oct-2022 30-Jun-2027 The price of 1 GB per month of mobile data, expressed in US$. Comments: Price is based on Safaricom offering of 15 Gb of data for 500 Birr.and a monthly GNI per capita of US$85. IN01361803 Price of 1 GB of mobile data per month, as a percentage of Ethiopia's GNI per capita (Percentage, Custom Supplement) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 19.50 1.25 0.72 2.00 to improve digital job creation in Ethiopia IN01361804 ►Increase in the number of jobs created, facilitated or sustained by digital businesses under the project (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 4,000.00 Date 31-Dec-2019 28-Oct-2022 31-Oct-2023 31-Oct-2028 Digital economy direct jobs are the salaried staffs hired by a digital firm. Digital economy indirect jobs are Comments: the jobs facilitated and sustained by digital businesses, e.g. working as a supplier or individual contractor for digital businesses and earn a commission from them. IN01361805 Number of digital economy jobs created for females (Number, Custom Supplement) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 640.00 IN01361806 Number of digital economy jobs created for disabled persons (Number, Custom Supplement) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target 11/6/2023 Page 3 of 9 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Ethiopia Digital Foundations Project (P171034) Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 40.00 IN01361807 Number of digital economy jobs created for rural persons (Number, Custom Supplement) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 800.00 Overall Comments PDO Two of the PDO indicators, on the prices of mobile data, in US$ and as a % of GNI per capita, have been met to date. Intermediate Results Indicators by Components 1. Digital Economy, enabling legal and regulatory environment IN01361808 ►Climate Indicator: Increase in the number of citizens able to receive alerts via their phone (eg for extreme weather events) (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 4,991,731.00 5,929,683.00 10,000,000.00 Date 31-Dec-2019 30-Jun-2022 30-Jun-2023 31-Dec-2026 This indicator is based on the increase in the total number of cellular mobile subscribers in the country. The service of extreme weather alerts (climate indicator) is typically delivered by short message service Comments: (SMS), and is therefore available on all phones in use -- 2G, 3G or 4G. IN01361812 ►Number of telecom service licenses awarded by ECA, including class licenses (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 7.00 260.00 3.00 Date 01-Nov-2019 22-Sep-2022 21-Sep-2023 30-Jun-2027 Number of awards of telecom operator licenses in Ethiopia by ECA, including class licenses. Thus, includes both full service licenses as well as class licenses awarded to internet service providers, Comments: satellite operators, wholesale fiber operators, value-added service providers etc. IN01361818 ►Percentage of the population covered by at least a 3G network signal (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 4.40 95.17 98.35 60.00 Date 31-Dec-2020 31-Mar-2023 30-Jun-2023 30-Jun-2027 Percentage of the population covered by a mobile broadband signal that is 3G or higher (ie 3G, 4G and Comments: 5G) 11/6/2023 Page 4 of 9 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Ethiopia Digital Foundations Project (P171034) IN01361821 ►Level of market competition, as measured by change in the level of concentration in the provision of broadband telecom services, using the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI). (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 10,000.00 9,714.00 8,800.00 5,000.00 Date 31-Dec-2020 31-Dec-2022 31-Oct-2023 30-Jun-2027 The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) is a commonly accepted measure of market concentration. It is calculated by squaring the market share of each firm competing in a market and then summing the Comments: resulting numbers. It can range from close to zero to 10,000, where zero equals perfect competition and 10'000 is complete monopoly. 2. Digital Government and Connectivity IN01361809 ►Number of Government services accessible from the ePortal (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 343.00 326.00 4.00 Date 31-Dec-2019 15-May-2023 31-Oct-2023 31-Dec-2026 This indicator measures the number of eGovernment services that are accessible from an official eGovernment portal (for instance using the domain name .gov.et). There is no specification of the type of Comments: Government service but it might, for instance, include birth, marriage or death certificates, ID cards or passports, applying for visas, filing taxes, IN01361813 ►Number of Ministries, Departments and Agencies served with enhanced connection to broadband internet, under the project (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 5.00 26.00 200.00 Date 01-Nov-2019 11-May-2023 31-Oct-2023 30-Jun-2027 Number of ministries, departments and agencies connected to broadband internet. The count measure locations (ie, if the same ministry has more than one site, it is counted multiple times). The definition of Comments: broadband internet here would include digital subscriber line, ethernet or fiber. It would also include a 3G, 4G or 5G mobile signal if fixed line connection were available. IN01361816 ►Number of universities and TVETs connected to broadband internet (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 30.00 34.00 34.00 200.00 Date 01-Nov-2019 31-Mar-2023 31-Oct-2023 30-Jun-2027 This indicator measures the number of higher education institutes provided with broadband internet. The definition of a higher education institution includes TVETs and Research Institutes as well as Universities, and it covers the number of locations (ie if a university has two separate campuses in different locations, it Comments: would be counted twice). The definition of connection would be a fixed line broadband connection (eg DSL, Ethernet, fiber) and would also be extended to cover 4G or above mobile signal, if this was avaialble at an unmetered tariff. The indicator would be a measure of support provided "under the project", so would be mainly limited to the increase under the program administered by EthERNet. 11/6/2023 Page 5 of 9 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Ethiopia Digital Foundations Project (P171034) IN01361823 Number of students receiving access to enhanced internet services, under the project, of which percentage female (Number, Custom Supplement) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 50,000.00 IN01361824 Percentage of students receiving access to enhanced internet services, under the project who are female (Percentage, Custom Supplement) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 30.00 IN01361819 ►Number of senior government officials receiving training in digital economy policies, of which percentage female. (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 996.00 996.00 2,000.00 Date 01-Nov-2019 26-Oct-2022 26-Oct-2022 30-Jun-2027 Comments: Number of senior government officials receiving training in digital skills, under the project IN01361825 Percentage of senior government officials receiving training under the project who are female (Percentage, Custom Supplement) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 34.00 34.00 40.00 IN01361826 Citizen engagement indicator: Percentage of beneficiaries receiving training under the project who expressed satisfaction (Percentage, Custom Supplement) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 60.00 3. Digital Business and Entrepreneurship IN01361810 ►Number of owners of offline SMEs and farmers receiving benefits (eg digital platform training, access to digital devices) under the project (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 4,000.00 Date 01-Nov-2019 31-Mar-2023 31-Mar-2023 31-Oct-2028 This indicator measures the number of users of digital platform and digital devices that receive benefits for Comments: productive purposes and generate income. IN01361815 of which female persons as the beneficiaries (Number, Custom Supplement) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target 11/6/2023 Page 6 of 9 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Ethiopia Digital Foundations Project (P171034) Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 680.00 IN01361817 ►Number of digital start-ups created and received funding that use a tech solution for commercial purposes (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 60.00 0.00 0.00 450.00 Date 31-Dec-2019 31-Mar-2023 31-Mar-2023 31-Dec-2026 This indicator is dropped in the project restructuring. Comments: IN01361820 of which there is at least one female in the founding team (Number, Custom Supplement) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 5.00 0.00 0.00 70.00 IN01361822 ►Number of digital platform and data firms operating in the country, including MSMEs, to contribute to digital economy growth (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 32.00 32.00 32.00 100.00 Date 31-Dec-2019 31-Mar-2023 31-Mar-2023 31-Oct-2028 This indicator includes all sizes, stages and ownership types (both foreign and local) of platform-based and data-driven firms not just start-ups. Platform and data-driven business models are essential to spur Comments: digital innovation and digital economy growth. This indicator is also consistent with DE4A scorecard targets. 4. Project Management IN01361811 ►Percentage of grievances registered that receive an adequate response within 30 days (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 100.00 100.00 80.00 Date 31-Oct-2020 31-Dec-2021 30-Jun-2023 31-Oct-2028 This indicator is based on the number of grievances or complaints received by the project implementation Comments: unit and expresses the percentage of those that are addressed, with a response to the complainant, within 30 days IN01361814 ►User satisfaction with the effectiveness of the selected public digital services (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 70.00 Date 31-Dec-2020 31-Dec-2021 31-Dec-2021 31-Dec-2026 11/6/2023 Page 7 of 9 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Ethiopia Digital Foundations Project (P171034) This indicator will be measured using the citizen feedback mechanism for selected digital public services Comments: to be developed under Component 2.1, and will focus on the level of satisfaction with convenience and ease of access Overall Comments IR Three of the intermediate indicators -- on 3G coiverage, license issued by ECA and government eServices launched --. have been met to date. Performance-Based Conditions Data on Financial Performance Disbursements (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Currency Original Revised Cancelled Disbursed Undisbursed % Disbursed P171034 IDA-68560 Effective USD 200.00 200.00 0.00 43.05 140.42 23% Key Dates (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Approval Date Signing Date Effectiveness Date Orig. Closing Date Rev. Closing Date P171034 IDA-68560 Effective 21-Apr-2021 07-May-2021 23-Jul-2021 31-Oct-2026 31-Oct-2026 Cumulative Disbursements 11/6/2023 Page 8 of 9 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Ethiopia Digital Foundations Project (P171034) Restructuring History There has been no restructuring to date. Related Project(s) There are no related projects. 11/6/2023 Page 9 of 9