The World Bank                                                                                      Implementation Status & Results Report
         Technical Assistance for Financing Framework for Rogun Hydropower Project (P178819)



Technical Assistance for Financing Framework for Rogun Hydropower Project (P178819)


 EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA | Tajikistan | Energy & Extractives Global Practice |
 IBRD/IDA | Investment Project Financing | FY 2023 | Seq No: 2 | ARCHIVED on 30-Oct-2023 | ISR58287 |


 Implementing Agencies: Ministry of Finance, Project Management Group for Energy Facilities Construction



 Key Dates


  Key Project Dates

   Bank Approval Date: 12-Jan-2023                                            Effectiveness Date: 11-May-2023
   Planned Mid Term Review Date: 02-Dec-2024                                  Actual Mid-Term Review Date:
   Original Closing Date: 31-Dec-2026                                         Revised Closing Date: 31-Dec-2026
 pdoTable

 Project Development Objectives

  Project Development Objective (from Project Appraisal Document)
  The project development objectives are to strengthen Rogun HPP Project’s financial and commercial frameworks, enhance its environmental and
  social sustainability, improve the transparency, and support establishment of Rogun HPP Project’s benefit sharing program

  Has the Project Development Objective been changed since Board Approval of the Project Objective?
  No


 Components Table

 Name
 Component 1: Development of macroeconomically sustainable financing plan and a commercial framework
 for Rogun HPP project:(Cost $4.80 M)
 Component 2: Improvement of the dam safety:(Cost $4.00 M)
 Component 3: Strengthening of E&S framework and benefit sharing aspects of Rogun HPP Project:(Cost
 $7.00 M)
 Component 4: Strengthening of institutional capacity of Rogun PMG and Rogun JSC:(Cost $4.20 M)

 Overall Ratings

 Name                                                                       Previous Rating                          Current Rating

 Progress towards achievement of PDO                                        Satisfactory                            Satisfactory
 Overall Implementation Progress (IP)                                       Satisfactory                            Satisfactory
 Overall Risk Rating                                                        Substantial                             Substantial


 Implementation Status and Key Decisions

  The financing for the Rogun TA was approved by the World Bank Board of Executive Directors on January 12, 2023, and was declared effective on
  May 11, 2023. Implementation of the main activities under the TA is progressing as planned: (i) Two panels of experts (Dam Safety, and
  Environmental and Social) are fully mobilized and conducted their forth mission in Sep-Oct 2023; (ii) update the E&S instruments to be aligned with
  the World Bank’s Environmental and Social Framework (ESF) is being prepared; (iii) update to the Overall Implementation Plan is being prepared;
  and (iv) support to prepare Power Purchase Agreements is in the process.




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            The World Bank                                                                                      Implementation Status & Results Report
            Technical Assistance for Financing Framework for Rogun Hydropower Project (P178819)




  Risks


 Systematic Operations Risk-rating Tool


  Risk Category                                              Rating at Approval               Previous Rating               Current Rating

  Political and Governance                                   Substantial                     Substantial                  Substantial
  Macroeconomic                                              Substantial                     Substantial                  Substantial
  Sector Strategies and Policies                             Substantial                     Substantial                  Substantial
  Technical Design of Project or Program                     Substantial                     Substantial                  Substantial
  Institutional Capacity for Implementation and
                                                             Substantial                     Substantial                  Substantial
  Sustainability
  Fiduciary                                                  Substantial                     Substantial                  Substantial
  Environment and Social                                     High                            High                         High
  Stakeholders                                               Substantial                     Substantial                  Substantial
  Other                                                      Substantial                     Substantial                  Substantial
  Overall                                                    Substantial                     Substantial                  Substantial



  Results


 PDO Indicators by Objectives / Outcomes



   Development of a sustainable financing plan and a commercial framework

   IN01354428
   ►The Government adopts a macroeconomically sustainable and financially viable plan for completing construction of Rogun HPP Project
   (Yes/No, Custom)

                                       Baseline                    Actual (Previous)             Actual (Current)           End Target

    Value                             No                           No                            No                         Yes

    Date                              31-Oct-2022                  05-Apr-2023                   17-Oct-2023               31-Dec-2023
                                       This indicator will measure the progress with development and adoption of a macroeconomically
                                       sustainable financing plan. The macroeconomic sustainability means that the financing plan would not
                                       create risks of debt distress for the country taking into account the proposed annual capital expenditures
   Comments:
                                       and financing terms for those expenditures.
                                       The financing plan is expected to be completed by December 2023.

    IN01354446
    ►PPAs are signed for sale of Rogun HPP Project’s electricity in the amount to make the financing plan viable (Yes/No, Custom)

                                       Baseline                    Actual (Previous)             Actual (Current)           End Target


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           The World Bank                                                                                   Implementation Status & Results Report
           Technical Assistance for Financing Framework for Rogun Hydropower Project (P178819)




    Value                            No                          No                           No                        Yes

    Date                             31-Oct-2022                 05-Apr-2023                  17-Oct-2023              31-Dec-2023
                                      This indicator will measure the progress with establishment of adequate commercial framework for Rogun
                                      HPP Project. The Government is in the process of negotiation of the term sheets for Power Purchase
   Comments:                          Agreements (PPA) with counterparts in major export countries (Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan) and the
                                      terms sheets are expected to be signed by end-December 2023.



   Improvement of environmental and social framework and benefit sharing aspects of Rogun HPP Project

    IN01354429
    ►Rogun HPP Project has functioning dam safety as well as environmental and social POEs (Yes/No, Custom)

                                      Baseline                   Actual (Previous)            Actual (Current)          End Target

    Value                            No                          Yes                          Yes                       Yes

    Date                             31-Oct-2022                 05-Apr-2023                  17-Oct-2023              28-Feb-2023
                                      This indicator will measure the progress with ensuring functional dam safety and E&S
   Comments:                          POEs. Two panels are fully mobilized and conducted their forth mission in Sep-Oct, 2023.

   IN01354447
   ►The environmental and social instruments of Rogun HPP Project comply with the requirements of the World Bank’s Environmental and
   Social Framework (Yes/No, Custom)

                                      Baseline                   Actual (Previous)            Actual (Current)          End Target

    Value                            No                          No                           No                        Yes

    Date                             31-Oct-2022                 05-Apr-2023                  17-Oct-2023              28-Feb-2024
                                      An international E&S consultant (WSP) has been hired to update the E&S Instruments to update the E&S
                                      instruments of the Rogun HPP Project in compliance with the Environmental and Social Framework of the
   Comments:                          World Bank. Update of the E&S document is in advance stage and the ESIA is expected to be finalized
                                      and disclosed by end-Oct, 2023.



   Improvement of transparency of Rogun JSC and strengthening of capacity of the Rogun PMG

   IN01354430
   ►The summary information on existing and future contracts and financing plan for completion of construction of Rogun HPP Project are
   publicly disclosed (Yes/No, Custom)

                                      Baseline                   Actual (Previous)            Actual (Current)          End Target

    Value                            No                          No                           No                        Yes

    Date                             31-Oct-2022                 05-Apr-2023                  17-Oct-2023              31-Mar-2023
                                      Update of the project implementation schedule is expected to be updated by Nov 2023 and the
                                      updated financing plan to be completed by end of December 2023.
   Comments:


    IN01354448
    ►Rogun HPP Project’s community benefit sharing program is launched (Yes/No, Custom)

                                      Baseline                   Actual (Previous)            Actual (Current)          End Target

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           The World Bank                                                                                    Implementation Status & Results Report
           Technical Assistance for Financing Framework for Rogun Hydropower Project (P178819)




    Value                             No                          No                           No                         Yes

    Date                              31-Oct-2022                 05-Apr-2023                  17-Oct-2023                30-Apr-2024

                                      Hiring of an international consultant is progressing and the consultant to be hired by Nov 2023.
   Comments:



 Intermediate Results Indicators by Components



   Development of macroeconomically sustainable financing plan and a commercial framework for Rogun HPP

    IN01354450
    ►Update of Rogun HPP Project implementation schedule is completed (Yes/No, Custom)

                                      Baseline                    Actual (Previous)             Actual (Current)          End Target

    Value                             No                          No                           No                         Yes

    Date                              31-Oct-2022                 28-Mar-2023                  17-Oct-2023                31-Jan-2023
                                      This indicator will measure the progress with revision of the Rogun HPP Project implementation schedule
                                      to ensure that annual financing requirements are not exceeding the thresholds of annual financing that
   Comments:                          can be allocated without creating public debt distress. The inception report is currently under the Bank
                                      review and to be finalized by end-Dec, 2023.

    IN01354456
    ►Electricity market analysis is completed and the PPAs for sale of Rogun electricity are drafted (Yes/No, Custom)

                                      Baseline                    Actual (Previous)             Actual (Current)          End Target

    Value                             No                          No                           No                         Yes

    Date                              31-Oct-2022                 28-Mar-2023                  17-Oct-2023                30-Apr-2023
                                      This indicator will measure the progress with preparation of long-term contracts for sale of Rogun
                                      electricity. Those contracts will then be negotiated by the Government and Rogun JSC with main buyers
   Comments:                          in export and domestic markets. The term sheets to the PPAs are expected to be signed with
                                      governments of Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan by end of Dec, 2023.



   Improvement of the dam safety

    IN01354451
    ►Dam safety POE, with composition and qualifications acceptable to the Bank, is hired (Yes/No, Custom)

                                      Baseline                    Actual (Previous)             Actual (Current)          End Target

    Value                             No                          Yes                          Yes                        Yes

    Date                              31-Oct-2022                 28-Mar-2023                  17-Oct-2023                31-Jan-2023
                                      The Recipient hired a functioning dam safety POE. The DSPoE are fully mobilized and had conducted
   Comments:                          their forth mission in Sep, 2023.




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           The World Bank                                                                                    Implementation Status & Results Report
           Technical Assistance for Financing Framework for Rogun Hydropower Project (P178819)




   Strengthening of E&S framework and benefit sharing aspects of Rogun HPP Project

    IN01354452
    ►E&S POE, with composition and qualifications acceptable to the Bank, is hired and retained (Yes/No, Custom)

                                      Baseline                    Actual (Previous)            Actual (Current)          End Target

    Value                            No                          Yes                           Yes                       Yes

    Date                             31-Oct-2022                 28-Mar-2023                   17-Oct-2023              31-Jan-2023

                                      The E&S POE are fully mobilized and functioning.
   Comments:

    IN01354454
    ►Update of E&S instruments of Rogun HPP Project is completed (Yes/No, Custom)

                                      Baseline                    Actual (Previous)            Actual (Current)          End Target

    Value                            No                          No                            No                        Yes

    Date                             31-Oct-2022                 28-Mar-2023                   17-Oct-2023              31-Dec-2024
                                      The update of E&S documents for Rogun HPP Project in compliance with the requirements of the World
   Comments:                          Bank's ESF is progressing well and the ESIA update to be finalized and disclosed by end-Oct, 2023

    IN01354457
    ►Preparation of Rogun HPP Project community benefit sharing program is completed (Yes/No, Custom)

                                      Baseline                    Actual (Previous)            Actual (Current)          End Target

    Value                            No                          No                            No                        Yes

    Date                             31-Oct-2022                 28-Mar-2023                   17-Oct-2023              31-Jan-2024
                                      This indicator will measure the progress with preparation of the community benefit sharing program. Hiring
                                      of an international consultant to design the BSP is progressing and the contract is expected to be awarded
   Comments:
                                      by Nov 2023.



   Strengthening of institutional capacity of Rogun PMG and Rogun JSC

    IN01354449
    ►Rogun PMG is strengthened with project management, procurement, FM, and E&S experts (Yes/No, Custom)

                                      Baseline                    Actual (Previous)            Actual (Current)          End Target

    Value                            No                          Yes                           Yes                       Yes

    Date                             31-Oct-2022                 05-Apr-2023                   17-Oct-2023              01-Feb-2023
                                      This indicator will measure the progress with strengthening of Project implementation capacity of Rogun
                                      PMG. The project coordinator, FM, procurement and an international E&S staff have been hired including
                                      one local E&S specialist. The Rogun PMG is in the process of hiring (i) one probity officer to review the
   Comments:                          procurement aspects of Lot 3A (re-tender) and Lot 4 (new tender); (ii) one international advisor on
                                      occupational health and safety; (iii)one international contract management adviser; (iii) one senior
                                      procurement officer; and (iv) two local senior engineers;

    IN01354453



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           The World Bank                                                                                         Implementation Status & Results Report
           Technical Assistance for Financing Framework for Rogun Hydropower Project (P178819)




    ►Increase in the number of women taking on permanent jobs at Rogun PMG at technical and managerial levels (Number, Custom)

                                      Baseline                      Actual (Previous)               Actual (Current)          End Target

    Value                             5.00                         3.00                             3.00                      10.00

    Date                              17-Oct-2023                  28-Mar-2023                      17-Oct-2023              31-Dec-2024
                                      This indicator will measures the progress with efficiency of gender activities under the Project. Rogun
                                      PMG hired three local female specialists: one procurement specialist, one FM specialist and one
   Comments:
                                      translator;

    IN01354455
    ►Percentage of citizens who believe that the Project has established effective engagement processes (Text, Custom)

                                      Baseline                      Actual (Previous)               Actual (Current)          End Target
                                      To be established during
    Value                                                          to be yet determined             to be yet determined      At least 65 percent
                                      2022 survey

    Date                              31-Mar-2023                  28-Mar-2023                      17-Oct-2023              31-Dec-2026
                                      This indicator will measure the progress with improvement of citizen engagement. The number to be
   Comments:                          determined during next E&S mission which is planned in Feb 2024.



 Performance-Based Conditions



 Data on Financial Performance


 Disbursements (by loan)

 Project       Loan/Credit/TF    Status       Currency        Original    Revised       Cancelled      Disbursed       Undisbursed               % Disbursed


 P178819       IDA-E1460         Effective    USD               15.00       15.00            0.00            1.00            14.40                     6.5%


 Key Dates (by loan)

 Project        Loan/Credit/TF    Status      Approval Date       Signing Date      Effectiveness Date        Orig. Closing Date      Rev. Closing Date

 P178819        IDA-E1460         Effective   12-Jan-2023         18-Jan-2023       11-May-2023               31-Dec-2026             31-Dec-2026


Cumulative Disbursements




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         The World Bank                                                                        Implementation Status & Results Report
         Technical Assistance for Financing Framework for Rogun Hydropower Project (P178819)




  Restructuring History


  There has been no restructuring to date.


  Related Project(s)


 There are no related projects.




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