The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Strengthening Critical Infrastructure against Natural Hazards (P158298) Strengthening Critical Infrastructure against Natural Hazards (P158298) EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA | Tajikistan | Urban, Resilience and Land Global Practice | IBRD/IDA | Investment Project Financing | FY 2018 | Seq No: 13 | ARCHIVED on 16-Oct-2023 | ISR58072 | Implementing Agencies: Agency for Land Reclamation & Irrigation (Project Management Unit at ALRI), Ministry of Finance (Project Implementation Unit under the Ministry of Finance), Ministry of Transport (Project Implementation Group under the Ministry of Transport), Republic of Tajikistan Key Dates Key Project Dates Bank Approval Date: 10-Jul-2017 Effectiveness Date: 08-Feb-2018 Planned Mid Term Review Date: -- Actual Mid-Term Review Date: 25-Sep-2020 Original Closing Date: 31-Dec-2023 Revised Closing Date: 31-Dec-2023 pdoTable Project Development Objectives Project Development Objective (from Project Appraisal Document) The Project Development Objectives are to strengthen the Recipient's disaster risk management capacities, enhance the resilience ofits critical infrastructure against natural hazards, and improve its capacity to respond to disasters. Has the Project Development Objective been changed since Board Approval of the Project Objective? No Components Table Name Strengthening Disaster Risk Management Capacity:(Cost $4.00 M) Making Critical Infrastructure Resilient against Natural Hazards:(Cost $38.00 M) Contingent Emergency Response Component:(Cost $6.00 M) Project Management:(Cost $2.00 M) Overall Ratings Name Previous Rating Current Rating Progress towards achievement of PDO Satisfactory Satisfactory Overall Implementation Progress (IP) Satisfactory Satisfactory Overall Risk Rating Moderate Moderate Implementation Status and Key Decisions This ISR covers the period between June - September 2023: Component 1 - Strengthening Disaster Risk Management Capacity: The construction of a National Crises Management Center (NCMC) for the Committee of Emergency Situations and Civil Defense (CoESCD) has been completed. Contract for supply of ICT systems has been initiated and is scheduled to be completed in time by closing of the project on December 31, 2023. Procurement of minivan based Mobile Command and Communication Vehicle is also nearing procurement. The Institute of Geology, Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IGEES) has completed seismic microzoning of Dushanbe, and as such has achieved increasing of understanding of seismic hazards. 10/16/2023 Page 1 of 9 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Strengthening Critical Infrastructure against Natural Hazards (P158298) Sub-component 2.1 - Strengthening of Bridges: The Ministry of Transport (MoT) has completed the construction of all 17 bridges in GBAO, which are now open to public traffic. They also used the limited project savings to procure additional units of heavy machinery for Bartang Valley of Rushan district. Sub-component 2.2 - Strengthening of Flood Protection and Riverbank Erosion–Protection Infrastructure: The Agency for Land Reclamation and Irrigation (ALRI) has fully completed the rehabilitation of all flood protection sites in the greater Kulyab area. Flood protection works in the Qabodiyon district have commenced in full and reached 95% completion rate, with one of the sites pending completion of final 2km stretch by end November 2023. Overall, the project is advancing satisfactorily and is currently envisioned to be completed by current closing date of December 31, 2023. However, more clarity in terms of timely completion by current closing date will be determined by end of October 2023, once ICT supply for NCMC advances, as well as once contract for supply of MCCV is signed and initiated. Risks Systematic Operations Risk-rating Tool Risk Category Rating at Approval Previous Rating Current Rating Political and Governance Substantial Moderate Moderate Macroeconomic Substantial Substantial Moderate Sector Strategies and Policies Substantial Moderate Moderate Technical Design of Project or Program Moderate Moderate Moderate Institutional Capacity for Implementation and Substantial Moderate Moderate Sustainability Fiduciary Substantial Substantial Substantial Environment and Social Substantial Moderate Moderate Stakeholders Moderate Moderate Moderate Other Substantial -- -- Overall Substantial Moderate Moderate Results PDO Indicators by Objectives / Outcomes Strengthen the Recipient's disaster risk management capacities IN01348268 ►Crisis management centers and systems become operational (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 50.00 100.00 Date 15-Jun-2017 07-Mar-2023 30-Sep-2023 31-Dec-2023 10/16/2023 Page 2 of 9 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Strengthening Critical Infrastructure against Natural Hazards (P158298) The expected target is reached at 50% and is on track to be fully achieved by the project closure on December 31, 2023. NCMC building construction has been completed in full in late April, 2023. The supply of furniture and ICT equipment for NCMC is underway, envisioned to be delivered and commissioned by end November/mid December 2023, thus allowing for the center to become Comments: operational. In parallel, MoF PIU and CoESCD are researching the market for procurement of high- clearance mini-van type mobile command and control vehicle (MCCV) to completement and strengthen the NCMC operations and serve as regional based Crises Management Center (RCMC). As such, it is envisioned to reach the final target by end of December 2023. IN01348270 ►Understanding of seismic hazard is improved (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Seismic hazard maps Seismic hazard maps are updated and are updated and Seismic hazard maps are Draft micro-zoning of Value understanding of understanding of outdated Dushanbe is completed seismic hazard is seismic hazard is improved improved Date 15-Jun-2017 07-Mar-2023 30-Sep-2023 31-Dec-2023 Target has been achieved. Dushanbe micro-zoning is completed and updated map of Dushanbe seismic microzoning has been presented to the Bank team in early June 2023. In development of the updated map of seismic microzoning of the territory of Dushanbe, the findings of the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (that was also financed by SCINHP) were applied, particularly for the earthquake return period of 475 years, which according to many specialists in the field of seismic engineering, is the appropriate level for earthquake design. Furthermore, the structural/earthquake designs of approximately 30 buildings currently set for construction or already under construction in the city of Dushanbe have been checked and verified based on this updated seismic microzoning Comments: methodology on an experimental basis. The findings show that existing building seismic norms derive more conservative building designs. However, should the updated methodology be considered for official application in the future, it may result in more cost-efficient structural designs of the buildings. The Bank team has received the updated Scientific-Technical Report on Dushanbe seismic microzoning from the IoGEES, describing the above-mentioned points in detail. IoGEES also furnished an excerpt with conclusions of its scientific council on completion of Dushanbe seismic microzoning activity. Given the abovementioned the project support has helped in updating of seismic hazard maps and improving the understanding of seismic hazard. IN01348421 ►Strengthened capacity to coordinate and respond to emergencies (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Emergency drill No crisis management No crisis management conduct is pending Emergency response centers or systems with centers or systems with completion of furniture capacity improved modern functions to modern functions to Value and ICT / MCCV through new facilities, coordinate response coordinate response systems installation at equipment and among relevant among relevant the new NCMC procedures. agencies. agencies. building Date 15-Jun-2017 07-Mar-2023 30-Sep-2023 31-Dec-2023 Comments: The expected current target is not yet reached, but is on track to be achieved by the project closure. Civil works for the NCMC building have been completed. Operational (Procedures) Manual for NCMC have been developed/finalized, and endorsed by CoESCD management. Procurement of furniture and ICT for the NCMC is underway, and expected to be completed by end November to mid-December 2023. Near completion of and/or immediately after the installation and commissioning of ICT, the Capacity Building consultant shall conduct trainings and emergency response drill/simulation exercise to the CoESCD staff, based on the new Operational Manual, based on experience of which, CoESCD can hold annual response simulations going forward. As such, these activities are to be completed concurrently and/or immediately subsequent to each other for the end target to be reached by mid to end-December 2023. 10/16/2023 Page 3 of 9 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Strengthening Critical Infrastructure against Natural Hazards (P158298) Enhance the resilience of the Recipient's critical infrastructure against disasters IN01348267 ►Bridges reconstructed based on designs considering multi-hazard disaster and climate change risks (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 11.00 17.00 15.00 Date 15-Jun-2017 07-Mar-2023 30-Sep-2023 31-Dec-2023 Target has been achieved and exceeded. Civil works for all 17 bridges in Darvaz, Vanj, Rushan and Comments: Murghab districts have been completed in full, and the bridges are open for traffic. IN01348269 ►Number of people with reduced disaster risks through more resilient flood protection and river bank erosion prevention infrastructure (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 450,900.00 543,447.00 556,900.00 Date 15-Jun-2017 07-Mar-2023 30-Sep-2023 31-Dec-2023 Target is almost achieved and is expected to be fully met by the project closure. As of May / June 2023 mission, the number of beneficiaries (people with reduced disaster risk reduction through more resilient flood protection and river bank erosion prevention infrastructure) has reached 543,447 people (or nearly 98% of overall end target). These represent the residents based on January 1, 2023 data) of: i) Kulyab city (227,381 people), through interventions in restoring 4.5. km of river embankments, including through protection of the embankment near the International Airport of Kulyab city (a strategic asset and 3rd largest international airport in the country); ii) Vose district (233,009 people) through interventions in restoring 7.3 km of river embankments throughout the district, including a stretch Comments: to protect the embankment near an asphalt-concrete plant, which supplies the Road Maintenance Department of Vose with raw materials for maintenance of the road network of Vose district and nearby locations; and iii) Kabadiyan district (80,057 residents of nearby jamoats) through rehabilitation of 15.74 km of river embankments going nearby those jamoats. Once the pending stretch of 2km of works is completed in Kabadiya (by end November 2023), the additional 31,0 77 people (of nearby N. Khusrav jamoat) in Kabadiyan will be added to the count, thus reaching a total of 574,524 people (or 103% of the target), thus slightly surpassing the original end target. Intermediate Results Indicators by Components Strengthening Disaster Risk Management Capacity IN01348422 ►Operational Procedures for Crisis Management Center and Systems are prepared (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value No No Yes Yes Date 15-Jun-2017 07-Mar-2023 30-Sep-2023 31-Dec-2023 10/16/2023 Page 4 of 9 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Strengthening Critical Infrastructure against Natural Hazards (P158298) Target is met. Operational (Procedures) Manual for NCMC has been prepared and endorsed by Comments: CoESCD. IN01348426 ►National Crisis Management Center is established and tested (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value No No No Yes Date 15-Jun-2017 07-Mar-2023 30-Sep-2023 31-Dec-2023 The expected current target is reached only at 50% and is on track to be fully met by the project closure. As of April 2023, NCMC building construction has been completed in full. The supply of furniture and ICT equipment for NCMC is underway, envisioned to be delivered and commissioned by end Comments: November/early December 2023, thus allowing for the center to become operational and report the target met. IN01348429 ►Mobile command and communication vehicles are procured and tested (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value No No No Yes Date 15-Jun-2017 07-Mar-2023 30-Sep-2023 31-Dec-2023 Due to shortage of available project funds, procurement of MCCVs has been left as last action for consideration. Now that the amount of available financing comprises an estimated USD 290,000 (after the costs for ICT and furniture for NCMC have been determined), the Implementing Agency is preparing to launch procurement of one mini-van type MCCV, which should be adequate to meet the initial needs of the CoESCD and the NCMC. This one unit of MCCV will allow to test the MCCV approach and will enable Comments: to perform the necessary mobile tasks at the onset of operationalization of NCMC and its accompanying systems, in particular allowing dispatching of the MCCV to various regions / districts where emergencies may have occurred or in regular course of business to provide connectivity between the NCMC and the emergency / dispatched locations. IN01348432 ►National Crisis Management Center and mobile command and communication vehicles users are trained to operate the emergency management system (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 100.00 Date 15-Jun-2017 07-Mar-2023 30-Sep-2023 31-Dec-2023 Currently, trainings have not yet been provided and will be executed at the end November-early December 2023, allowing to fully meet the target value of this indicator. As the construction of NCMC and delivery of its accompanying systems have been delayed from originally envisioned timelines, the training of the NCMC assigned staff and operators shall take place after installation and commissioning of Comments: the ICT infrastructure within the NCMC, also coupled with supply of MCCV, its testing, and provision of training on its use. As such, the trainings are planned to be conducted closer to end November / early December 2023. IN01348435 ►Financial protection strategy is developed to facilitate response and recovery in the event of an emergency (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target 10/16/2023 Page 5 of 9 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Strengthening Critical Infrastructure against Natural Hazards (P158298) Value No Yes Yes Yes Date 15-Jun-2017 07-Mar-2023 30-Sep-2023 31-Dec-2023 The target is met. Government of the Republic of Tajikistan has adopted the “Strategy for Comments: Financial Protection against Disasters in the Republic of Tajikistan for the period up to 2037”. IN01348436 ►Equipment for seismic hazard monitoring and assessment procured and installed (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value No Yes Yes Yes Date 15-Jun-2017 19-Sep-2019 30-Sep-2023 31-Dec-2023 The target is met. Equipment has been procured and installed, and field activities completed. Comments: Making Critical Infrastructure Resilient against Natural Hazards IN01348423 ►Bridge designs informed by multi-hazard disaster and climate change risks are prepared (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 18.00 18.00 15.00 Date 15-Jun-2017 17-Oct-2018 30-Sep-2023 31-Dec-2023 The target is met and exceeded. A total of 18 bridge designs have been informed by multi-hazard Comments: disaster and climate change risk assessments. IN01348427 ►Heavy machinery for the MoT is installed and dispatched based on operational plan (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value No Yes Yes Yes Date 15-Jun-2017 17-Oct-2018 30-Sep-2023 31-Dec-2023 The target is met. Heavy machinery has been procured and dispatched, based on Operational Plan. The Operational Plan has further been updated in summer of 2023 to reflect procurement of Comments: additional units of heavy machinery from sub-component savings. IN01348430 ►Target project sites have more resilient flood protection and/or river bank erosion prevention infrastructure through disaster risk-informed designing (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 4.00 4.00 5.00 Date 15-Jun-2017 23-Apr-2021 30-Sep-2023 31-Dec-2023 The target is almost met and is expected to be fully achieved by the project closure. Works in Comments: Kulyab zone have been completed, representing a total of 4 sites. Works at the last site – Kabadiyan – 10/16/2023 Page 6 of 9 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Strengthening Critical Infrastructure against Natural Hazards (P158298) are completed at 95%, with 2 km of works remaining to be completed in end November 2023, thus covering 5 sites in full. IN01348433 ►Heavy machinery for ALRI is installed and dispatched based on operational plan (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value No Yes Yes Yes Date 15-Jun-2017 16-Apr-2018 30-Sep-2023 31-Dec-2023 Project Management IN01348424 ►Grievances raised by stakeholders are addressed and closed (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 92.00 92.80 95.00 Date 15-Jun-2017 07-Mar-2023 30-Sep-2023 31-Dec-2023 The target is met at 92.8%. There is a last grievance reported as resolved at Bridge #2 in Vanj district. However, as the provided information on resolution of this grievance has been found inconclusive, the MoT shall engage a pricing organization to evaluate the damage to the resident's property and provide Comments: compensation based on the evaluation (expected to be achieved by end October 2023). Cumulative indicators (i.e. related to two or more components) IN01348425 ►Direct project beneficiaries (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 535,100.00 644,947.00 646,000.00 Date 15-Jun-2017 07-Mar-2023 30-Sep-2023 31-Dec-2023 The target is nearly 100 percent reached and is expected to be fully met (and possibly exceeded) by the project closure. These include the 543,447 beneficiaries of flood rehabilitation works in Kulyab, Vose and Kabaidyan districts, and 101,500 residents of Darvaz, Vanj, Rushan and Murghab districts of Comments: GBAO, who are beneficiaries of bridge reconstruction works. With finalization of the 2 km stretch in Kabadiyan (additional 31,077 people will be added to the count), the end target will be surpassed and reach 676,024 people. IN01348428 Female beneficiaries (Percentage, Custom Supplement) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 49.00 49.60 51.00 IN01348431 ►Locally-hired jobs (Percentage, Custom) 10/16/2023 Page 7 of 9 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Strengthening Critical Infrastructure against Natural Hazards (P158298) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 72.80 73.90 20.00 Date 15-Jun-2017 07-Mar-2023 30-Sep-2023 31-Dec-2023 The target is met and exceeded. Total workers / hired labor for all sub-components: 747; of them:  Foreign citizens: 15  Workers from Tajikistan: 732 Comments:  Workers from local population (i.e. from civil works’ districts): 552  Women workers from among the local population: 68 IN01348434 Out of which female (Percentage, Custom Breakdown) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 11.50 12.30 51.00 Date 15-Jun-2017 29-Apr-2022 19-Jul-2023 31-Dec-2023 Performance-Based Conditions Data on Financial Performance Disbursements (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Currency Original Revised Cancelled Disbursed Undisbursed % Disbursed P158298 IDA-60890 Effective USD 25.00 25.00 0.00 22.40 2.60 90% P158298 IDA-D2050 Effective USD 25.00 25.00 0.00 25.55 0.01 100% Key Dates (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Approval Date Signing Date Effectiveness Date Orig. Closing Date Rev. Closing Date P158298 IDA-60890 Effective 10-Jul-2017 15-Aug-2017 08-Feb-2018 31-Dec-2023 31-Dec-2023 P158298 IDA-D2050 Effective 10-Jul-2017 15-Aug-2017 08-Feb-2018 31-Dec-2023 31-Dec-2023 Cumulative Disbursements 10/16/2023 Page 8 of 9 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Strengthening Critical Infrastructure against Natural Hazards (P158298) Restructuring History Level 2 Approved on 31-Oct-2019 Related Project(s) There are no related projects. 10/16/2023 Page 9 of 9