The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Strengthening Resilience of the Agriculture Sector Project (P175952) Strengthening Resilience of the Agriculture Sector Project (P175952) EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA | Tajikistan | Agriculture and Food Global Practice | IBRD/IDA | Investment Project Financing | FY 2021 | Seq No: 5 | ARCHIVED on 12-Oct-2023 | ISR57797 | Implementing Agencies: Ministry of Agriculture, Republic of Tajikistan Key Dates Key Project Dates Bank Approval Date: 18-Jun-2021 Effectiveness Date: 18-Nov-2021 Planned Mid Term Review Date: 29-Dec-2023 Actual Mid-Term Review Date: Original Closing Date: 30-Jun-2027 Revised Closing Date: 30-Jun-2027 pdoTable Project Development Objectives Project Development Objective (from Project Appraisal Document) The development objective of the project is to strengthen the foundations for a more resilient agricultural sector in Tajikistan. Has the Project Development Objective been changed since Board Approval of the Project Objective? Yes Board Approved Revised Project Development Objective (If project is formally restructured) To strengthen the foundations for a more resilient agricultural sector and support emergency interventions to address food and nutrition security in Tajikistan Components Table Name Strengthening seed, seedling and planting material systems:(Cost $53.40 M) Support investments in Agri-Logistical Centers (ALCs) for horticulture value chains:(Cost $25.00 M) Strengthen public capacity for crises prevention and management:(Cost $25.60 M) Project management and coordination:(Cost $4.00 M) Overall Ratings Name Previous Rating Current Rating Progress towards achievement of PDO Satisfactory Satisfactory Overall Implementation Progress (IP) Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory Overall Risk Rating Moderate Moderate Implementation Status and Key Decisions Overall, the Project is progressing well in terms of implementing its planned activities. for the coming agriculture season, the Project will be supporting more than 13,000 smallholder farmers with seeds and fertilizers. Delays by the FAO, which is hired by the PMU to provide technical 10/12/2023 Page 1 of 8 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Strengthening Resilience of the Agriculture Sector Project (P175952) support to the Project is affecting the pace of implementation. The World Bank team is working closely with the PMU and FAO to address these issues and take corrective actions. The Additional Financing of the Project became effective on May 10, 2023, with all effectiveness conditions being fulfilled by the Government. The World Bank team now includes a new Task Team Leader who is based in Dushanbe to ensure smooth implementation of works and provide any needed support. Risks Systematic Operations Risk-rating Tool Risk Category Rating at Approval Previous Rating Current Rating Political and Governance Moderate Moderate Moderate Macroeconomic Moderate Moderate Moderate Sector Strategies and Policies Moderate Moderate Moderate Technical Design of Project or Program Moderate Moderate Moderate Institutional Capacity for Implementation and Moderate Moderate Moderate Sustainability Fiduciary Moderate Moderate Moderate Environment and Social Substantial Substantial Substantial Stakeholders Moderate Moderate Moderate Other Moderate Moderate Moderate Overall Moderate Moderate Moderate Results PDO Indicators by Objectives / Outcomes Strengthen the foundations for resilient agricultural sector IN01340437 ►Certified seeds, seedlings and planting materials sold commercially (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 75.00 Date 29-Mar-2022 29-Mar-2022 20-Sep-2023 30-Jun-2027 10/12/2023 Page 2 of 8 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Strengthening Resilience of the Agriculture Sector Project (P175952) Comments: Share of the produced certified seeds, seedlings and planting materials that are sold commercially. Support investments in agri-logistics IN01340438 ►Clients benefiting from ALC services (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 30.00 Date 30-Jun-2021 29-Mar-2022 20-Sep-2023 30-Jun-2027 IN01340440 ►Female clients benefiting from ALC services for at least one year (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 35.00 Date 30-Jun-2021 29-Mar-2022 20-Sep-2023 30-Jun-2027 Strengthen public capacity for crisis management IN01340439 ►Database for timely and effective information for crisis management available (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value No No No Yes Date 30-Jun-2021 29-Mar-2022 20-Sep-2023 30-Jun-2027 Crisis management comprises early warning, preparedness and response. Database includes, at minimum, information on planted areas by crop and district, agricultural production forecast, farm land Comments: use, and major soil types in each agro-ecological zone that would need to meet characteristics of accuracy, completeness , consistency, timeliness, and/ or validity. IN01340441 ►Prevalence of moderate or severe food insecurity in the population, based on the Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES). (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 30.00 0.00 0.00 20.00 Date 24-Oct-2022 24-Oct-2022 20-Sep-2023 30-Jun-2027 Overall Comments PDO The Results Framework will be updated during the upcoming mission scheduled in November 2023. Intermediate Results Indicators by Components 10/12/2023 Page 3 of 8 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Strengthening Resilience of the Agriculture Sector Project (P175952) Strengthen seed, seedling and planting material systems IN01340442 ►Production of improved seeds, seedlings and planting materials (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 60.00 Date 30-Jun-2021 29-Mar-2022 20-Sep-2023 30-Jun-2027 Proposed climate indicator. Farming is significantly affected by climate change due to the high vulnerability of its natural environment and its low adaptive capacity. In addition to rising average temperature and loss of glaciers, Tajikistan suffers from more frequent droughts and strong winds, which Comments: have a large impact on crop yields, amongst others. The project will invest in availability of climate- resilient and drought-resilient seeds, seedlings and planting materials. The indicator will be disaggregated for (1) major crops, and (2) early generation/ foundation and commercial seeds, seedlings and planting materials. IN01340445 ►Improved multiplied seeds, seedlings and planting materials certified for commercial sale (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 40.00 40.00 40.00 65.00 Date 30-Jun-2021 29-Mar-2022 20-Sep-2023 30-Jun-2027 Share of produced multiplied seeds, seedlings and planting materials certified by responsible entity for Comments: commercial sale. IN01340448 ►Number of seed multiplication farms supported by the project (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 50.00 Date 30-Jun-2021 29-Mar-2022 20-Sep-2023 30-Jun-2027 Indicator measures how many public and private seed farms and nurseries involved in the multiplication of Comments: seeds, seedlings, and planting materials are supported by the project. IN01340451 ►Vulnerable rural households who benefitted from emergency improved seeds, fertilizer, and small farm machinery (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 345,000.00 Date 30-Oct-2022 30-Oct-2022 20-Sep-2023 30-Jun-2027 Support investments in agro-logistical centers for horticulture value chains IN01340443 ►Number of ALCs fully operational (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target 10/12/2023 Page 4 of 8 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Strengthening Resilience of the Agriculture Sector Project (P175952) Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.00 Date 30-Jun-2021 29-Mar-2022 20-Sep-2023 30-Jun-2027 A fully operational ALC is defined as providing any services such as sorting, cooling, storage, packing and Comments: logistics facilities. IN01340446 ►Clients satisfied with quality of services provided by ALCs (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 70.00 Date 30-Jun-2021 29-Mar-2022 20-Sep-2023 30-Jun-2027 IN01340449 ►Clients who report that the two-way channel for feedback and response works (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 70.00 Date 30-Jun-2021 29-Mar-2022 20-Sep-2023 30-Jun-2027 Comments: Proposed Citizen Engagement indicator. Indicator will be disaggregated for gender. Strengthen public capacity for crises prevention and management IN01340444 ►Area surveyed (under surveillance) for crop protection and locust control (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 25.00 Date 30-Jun-2021 29-Mar-2022 20-Sep-2023 30-Jun-2027 Comments: The area surveyed for crop protection and locust control. IN01340447 ►Agricultural forecasting system is established and operational (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value No No No Yes Date 30-Jun-2021 29-Mar-2022 20-Sep-2023 30-Jun-2027 Proposed climate indicator. Tajikistan suffers under adverse events and outbreaks that are only amplified by climate change. Moreover they often take farmers and the authorities by surprise. Real time sector monitoring and agricultural production outlook are not yet effectively generated, catching the authorities Comments: off-guard in their response to emergencies. This activity aims to establish the database with agricultural land use, yield forecast, and production/ vegetation index fluctuations to make timely and accurate estimates of agricultural production. Increasing the availability and access to such information is expected to increase resilience to shocks. IN01340450 10/12/2023 Page 5 of 8 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Strengthening Resilience of the Agriculture Sector Project (P175952) ►Capacity for soil testing expanded (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 30.00 30.00 30.00 180.00 Date 30-Jun-2021 29-Mar-2022 20-Sep-2023 30-Jun-2027 Capacity will be measured by the number of soil samples tests to be conducted by soil testing laboratories Comments: supported by the project on a daily basis. IN01340452 ►National agriculture strategies, policies, and/ or programs in which nutrition objectives and indicators are mainstreamed (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.00 Date 24-Oct-2022 24-Oct-2022 20-Sep-2023 30-Jun-2027 IN01340453 ►Premix revolving fund established (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value No No No Yes Date 24-Oct-2022 24-Oct-2022 20-Sep-2023 30-Jun-2027 IN01340454 ►Women that have any type of anemia who have received iron-folic acid supplements as per the national guidelines (number) (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 352,946.00 Date 30-Oct-2022 30-Oct-2022 20-Sep-2023 30-Jun-2027 IN01340455 ►Children (5-69 months) that have any type of anemia who have received iron-folic acid supplements as per the national guidelines (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 6,250.00 Date 30-Oct-2022 30-Oct-2022 20-Sep-2023 30-Jun-2027 IN01340456 ►Children who are at risk of severe acute malnutrition (SAM) who have received ready-to-use therapeutic food (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 10,000.00 Date 30-Oct-2022 30-Oct-2022 20-Sep-2023 30-Jun-2027 Performance-Based Conditions 10/12/2023 Page 6 of 8 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Strengthening Resilience of the Agriculture Sector Project (P175952) Data on Financial Performance Disbursements (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Currency Original Revised Cancelled Disbursed Undisbursed % Disbursed P175952 IDA-D8600 Effective USD 58.00 58.00 0.00 10.96 42.77 20% P175952 IDA-E1450 Effective USD 50.00 50.00 0.00 3.17 48.04 6.2% Key Dates (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Approval Date Signing Date Effectiveness Date Orig. Closing Date Rev. Closing Date P175952 IDA-D8600 Effective 18-Jun-2021 21-Jun-2021 18-Nov-2021 30-Jun-2027 30-Jun-2027 P175952 IDA-E1450 Effective 22-Dec-2022 18-Jan-2023 10-May-2023 30-Jun-2027 30-Jun-2027 Cumulative Disbursements 10/12/2023 Page 7 of 8 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Strengthening Resilience of the Agriculture Sector Project (P175952) Restructuring History There has been no restructuring to date. Related Project(s) P179851-Tajikistan Strengthening Resilience of the Agriculture Sector Project Additional Financing 10/12/2023 Page 8 of 8